Talk Elections

So, today I discovered this enormous poll/survey done in October (http://hispanicheritage.org/50000-generation-z-high-school-students-identify-republican/) of high school students across the country, and the results of it are quite shocking. Among the 50,000 surveyed as a whole, Trump has a 14% lead over Clinton, a margin that expands to 15% among first time voters. Whites have an especially strong showing for Trump. with a 37% lead (50% among white males), and, relative to the national vote, Clinton has somewhat low leads among minorities (40% among blacks, 19% among Hispanics, and 8% among Asians). Being a Generation Z-er, I can say that this poll is somewhat similar to trends I see among people my age- lots of us are conservatives (especially the whites and the males) that love Donald Trump (on a trip to Washington D.C. in June, my group spent the bus rides between attractions chanting our Trump support with such vigor we had to be told to stop). While polls are traditionally hard to give credit to, this one interviewed more than 50,000 high school students. Considering this demographic that was born starting in 2000 will first be able to vote in 2020 (for those born between 2000 and late 2002), how will their very conservative views, which are the most conservative since the Silent Generation, (especially considering most batches of new voters overwhelmingly vote Democrat) influence the 2020 election.


Here's a map showing the results of the study, by state. Note that for this, I filtered out people who said they wouldn't vote (including them results in a 283-84 Trump victory), which of course affects the results since their opinions are not reflected:
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Also, here's an EV map showing the results of only white voters (again, "I won't vote" was filtered out). The pale sea-green in Utah is presumptively Evan McMullin (third party), who got around 29%, and the lime green in Vermont is for write-ins (almost certainly Bernie Sanders):
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Grey represents a state with no respondents, which I excluded in the "overall voter" map and instead inferred the result based off other states.

What a shock generation 4chan/sh*tposting likes Trump but in all seriousness alot of these kids will mature and fallout of Trump love by 2020

Probably a personality thing, at least that's my explanation for a poll that has Obama job approval at +16 and Trump over Clinton at +15.

I'm suspicious. South Carolina is Democrat but Illinois is Republican? Who are the subjects of these studies? It's an interesting idea but from the trends I don't see Gen Z being super conservative.

It probably all depends on who participated- perhaps in SC, a large proportion of black students participated, while in IL it could've been mostly rural downstaters who participated.

That and tons of anger at Hillary and the Democratic party in general for the perceived injustices towards Bernie. There were more 18-22 year olds casting "revenge votes" than most realized.

Gen Raygun's kids being as right-wing as their parents isn't really surprising. They were never going to vote against Bush for the rest of their lives like Millennials.

A lot of Gen Z-ers do not really remember Dubya's presidency (I don't, although I remember the hubbub about Obama in '08) because they were very young when he was president (the oldest were perhaps 8-10 when Obama was inaugurated) and thus do not really have personal feelings towards his administration.

Generation Z can be described as what age right now? I feel like I'm in the middle between the Millennial generation and Generation Z. When Obama was inaugurated in 09, I was 12.

That's what I was getting at.

I do find this odd - Obama is incredibly popular and has been the face of the Democrats since they were young. Hopefully this will reverse if we nominate a human being in 2020.

So Hil-la-ry Clin-ton is-n't hu-man?

Gen Z is anyone born in 2001 and after.

You're a late Millenial.

Which is crazy because the younger millenials were even more D than the older ones, according to exit polls. Maybe the alt-right is really that big of a deal but other grade school polls show opposite results.

The results of my school election poll was 44 Clinton - 41 Trump (the older grades definitely tipped it to Crooked).

I'd be interested to see how they vote. So far the millennial voters have been voting heavily Democratic since 2004 (2000 was a split). Generation Z would be an interesting break. We'll see in the '20 exit polls among 18-29.

I am very, very skeptical of this. Is myCollegeOptions reputable?

And the Scholastic polls were very Democratic this year.

That's of children of all ages, though.

So, a lot of them are young Z people. If this next generation is Republican, its because of the altRight.

Nah I blame Pepe the Frog

Before we jump to conclusions, we need to see basically the 2020 exit polls and see if these people are actually becoming more Republican. Or the 2018 ones. It could be that a lot of high schoolers are Republicans and then vote Democratic in college and establish a Democratic pattern.

Also what's the history for this poll? Is it reputable?

How many other 18-34 year olds flirted with Nationalism at age 16 and 17? There has always been a lot of what would become the alt-Right on Final Fantasy forums. In a way, Trump's election was my expirence between 2001 and 2003 coming back to remind me of the old days. I grew out of that crowd just before Pepe became a thing for anyone.

I know nothing about their experiences honestly. I know that young white people were nowhere as radically Republican as this group. They voted 47-43% Trump which is a far cry from the Bush era. Obama also has a 44-30% approval rating in this group, which is interesting. 

Maybe they just hated Hillary.

It's a myth that young people are inherently more liberal.
Wisconsin 18-24 year olds voted 47-43 for Trump if exit poll is to be believed.
By contrary, whites in TX, GA are getting more democratic.

Young people have tendency to rebel against parents thoughts. Hispanic and black youngsters won't go overwhelmingly Democratic forever. And likewise, older people won't be the most conservative one forever.
It always changes and one part of the reasons is that people always want to hit a reset button after certain ideology is in the throne long enough.

At what age do kids even have any independent political opinions, separate from their parents?  I bet if you polled high school students throughout the past several decades, you'd find them usually being to the right of those aged 18-25, simply because many kids in high school will just regurgitate whatever their parents' political beliefs are, and parents with kids in the house are going to be more conservative than 20 year olds.  So I'm not sure what this is supposed to prove?

I used to be somewhat more liberal than I am now, though my support for Trump was formed independently ("hey, this guy has a point!") because he reflected my more conservative ideals. Generally, it's more so been me rubbing information off on other family members (i.e. swayed my dad towards Trump, although it's been harder to try and redpill my international family).

Also, the "not supporting any candidate" margin was huge in this poll. Basically, if you take this poll as fact, about 35-40% of Generation Zers supported Trump, and the rest were scattered between Hillary, third parties, and  not supporting any candidate. Had Bernie been the nominee, he'd wipe the floor with Trump in this generation. The youth is almost always anti-establishment, and Hillary was the definition of establishment.

Does redpill really help you get chicks?

I'm not sure... I haven't tried it yet :p

I saw an article that said that kids are rebeling against their parents by being conservative. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/09/17/how-modern-teenagers-are-rebelling-against-their-parents-by-bein/)

we had a Clinton Trump debate in one of my classes and the split was about 22-6 Trump-Hillary. All the Hillary supporters were female. This trend followed almost all other classes that had a debate, with overwhelming Trump support with a small cohort of more liberal woman who support Hillary. Gender gap trend iimcreases significantly.

I already debunked that British study. It had an incredibly low sample size. Also that article is pretty stupid.

I think you might be onto something with the gender gap, though.

Well, that's certainly interesting. There's definitely plenty of "rumors" that this generation will be more conservative. Honestly, though, I think it's too early to tell for sure. Big events seemed poised to happen in between now and the next election, and these can definitely change people's political views.

I thought this article was pretty interesting: http://www.macleans.ca/society/life/get-ready-for-generation-z/ (http://www.macleans.ca/society/life/get-ready-for-generation-z/)

Seems to indicate what I was saying above, some trends are more classically conservative, some more classically liberal. Maybe they can break those chains and come up with a new dichotomy.


Now THAT'S something that jives with my personal worldview, lol.

Weren't Millenials thought to be conservative Evangelicals before 2008? They were supposed to help form a grandparent-grandchild  movement to check the excesses of the woodstock generation.

Though the topline of your article alludes to a libertarian generation.

That would be torture... it's even more polarizing than abortion. People that like those types of people only argue "they have the right to choose", while those of us that oppose 100,000 genders think it's ridiculous and crazy that people make up so many labels (any argument about it usually devolves to "no, YOU'RE the obnoxious one!").

Gender is a spectrum. There aren't a specific number of genders.

I think Figueira forgot to add /sarc

Nope, I'm not a transphobe parodying a reasonable person.

So I can claim xyz as my gender?

After all, there are no specific number of genders...

Exit polls for the 18-24 range would be optimal for this test. Depending on your view of generational ranges, it should have anywhere from 2-4 years worth genZ voters I imagine.

Given how Democratic 18-24 year olds were this year and in 2012, how diverse newer generations are and how completely absurdly offensive, incompetent and practically criminal Trump is, one needs to forgive me when I say that I doubt GenZ voters are going to be majority Republican, and probably not even that much less Democratic than 18-24 year old Millennials now. Such a huge rightwards shift in the span of just 4~ years seems highly unlikely.

Gender is a social construct, sex is biological.

Virginia, your error is in that you project everything through the prism of your positions and convictions, i.e. you distort everything.

For instance, what is the basis of your claim that Trump is completely absurdly offensive, incompetent and practically criminal? We cannot say that in advance. All we can say now is that Trump is an exceptionally competent businessman and a political and marketing genius. That's undisputable and facts. All else are personal opinions without much basis in reality.

I mean, if that's how you feel, sure?

What remains to be seen are trades, immigration, abortion, death penalty and gun control.

I would not be surprised if Gen Z opposes trades and wants to restrict even legal immigration more than previous generations do. It's not just a matter of expanding the goal post. In the Philippines, younger people are more likely to support drug war.

As for gender identity, if it reaches the point of oversaturation, there will also be a war on transgender people as well at some point.

Nothing is permanent.

But Trump isn't viewed by the general public as an exceptionally competent businessman, his favorability rating is historically bad. I don't think it's unreasonable to say that young people, who develop their political opinions under an unpopular President Trump, will lean Democratic.

The Apprentice premiered in 2004. If you're in high school now, it's been on your whole remembered life. I doubt any of the other Republican candidates would have done nearly as well with high school students.

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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/28/upshot/donald-trump-twitter-insults.html

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... and that's just what I felt like bringing up in the 2-3~ min. I decided was appropriate for this post.


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This is the thing about you Ljube - consistently throughout this campaign you have been unable to even comprehend the idea that Trump may be an asshole, or a cheat, or whatever. The fact that you felt you even had standing to make that post, as if it was even debatable that Trump is a decent person, is a testament to how far in the crapper we already are and how difficult the next 4 years are going to be for people who are still connected to this reality.

That you can't even begin to acknowledge any of this makes me question just what kind of man you are.

I couln't agree anymore.

Virginia, I already posted about all those examples and discredited your interpretation.

For instance, he wasn't mocking a disabled journalist, he was mocking a hack who happens to be disabled. In other words, he wasn't mocking his physical appearance, but his character.

Obviously, you and I live in two different worlds. I believe that my world is the world of reality and yours is one of fantasy, created by your own delusions and reinforced by the bubble you live in. However, I expect that the number of people inhabiting your world will decrease in the next couple of years, so that by the time the election 2020 comes, Trump will be able to win in a landslide.

What sh**t? All complaints against Trump are coming from the PC police.
PC police accusations are sh**t. And normal people are sick and tired of PC police.

Trump is telling it like it is. That's the biggest part of his appeal.

You really need help. Really though - because either you're still playing the same troll act for over 12 - 18 months, which in itself is pathetic, or you've drank so much kool-aid that you actually believe that. And I know there are lots of you guys out there that actually do. See, that was Trump's excuse, and it's very convenient that every time something happens that makes Trump look bad, he gives a really weak excuse, and suddenly people like you are parroting as if whatever Trump says is to be immediately believed 100% as undebatable truth. I don't get why anyone would trust any politician like that.

I think it's pretty obvious, considering that Trump is just as popular as Obama in this poll shows that Gen-Zers didn't like Clinton.

Considering I'm pretty close to Gen Z (I was born in 2000), I can say that Sanders and Trump are by far the most popular politicians of this generation. We're basically like less politically correct, anti-establishment Millennials.

"Skepticism"

I also find it surprising that Gen Z attends church at a higher rate.

You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic -- you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people -- now 11 million. He tweets and retweets their offensive hateful mean-spirited rhetoric. Now, some of those folks -- they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America."

"But the other basket -- and I know this because I see friends from all over America here -- I see friends from Florida and Georgia and South Carolina and Texas -- as well as, you know, New York and California -- but that other basket of people are people who feel that the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures, and they're just desperate for change. It doesn't really even matter where it comes from. They don't buy everything he says, but he seems to hold out some hope that their lives will be different. They won't wake up and see their jobs disappear, lose a kid to heroin, feel like they're in a dead-end. Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well."


The more I look @ this - The more I feel Clinton may have been right - How can you dispute that there are some deplorable people among Trump supports (& significant numbers).

And btw Ljube has gone crazy I feel!

Virgina dude is right though. And I can settle this once & for all.

@Rosie
TRUMP IS A CRIMINAL -

@Rosie
DONALD TRUMP IS MENTALLY UNSTABLE -

LESS THAN 3 WEEKS TO STOP HIM AMERICA

Even Rosie O'Donnell agrees with him!

I'd like to see the Catholic vs. Evangelical vs. Mainline breakdown as well.

I'd be interested to see what happens when they separate from their parents by moving out and/or attending college. What effect will that have on their rate of religious participation?

I can buy this. Who are the parents of these kids? Gen xers and the oldest millenials? A 22 year old having a kid in 2002?

According to many sources, mostly Gen X and Millennials.

I would like to see the breakdown by race and theology as well. I wonder if a majority of the popular churches will be gays-accepting, socially liberal type.

People have predicted death of Christianity and churches yet it never became true. Religion seems to be cyclical.

Some young baby boomers as well. 1963+38=2001.

But yeah, Gen X overall.

Boomer moms could of been having at least few kids until this decade. There are of course new boomer dads. Look at Trump Himself. He was 59 on His last child. My dad's age today!

Given the disparity between Hillary's performance and Obama's approval rating, I believe Donald Trump benefited from the 'cool' factor which may have had a greater impact on youth than older adults, (although it has an impact on both). Someone seen as a brash, aggressive upender of the status quo who gets people talking, will attract more kids than a staid politician, especially as many of them don't pay attention to politicians anyway. How much of an impact it had on this poll I don't know, but it likely had an impact. Politics is a popularity contest and aggressive self-promoters know how to get popularity. Clinton never figured this out and she would never have even been the nominee had it not been for her being the wife of the president. Trump had this figured out already by the late 1980s.

While it's almost certain Gen Z will be more conservative than the millennial generation, a word of caution. Many / most of those surveyed haven't gone to college yet, and the overwhelming majority students who go to college become more liberal as a result. As such, I wouldn't be surprised if in four years this precise sample is left-leaning, albeit not as far as the generation that preceded them.

Most high school students never go to college. Those that don't make it get dropped into the basket of deplorables. :P

If Trump never becomes popular, I can see Z being at least as popular. New voters keep skewing more and more liberal.

I would also have to question the extent to which their ideological leanings translate into partisan leanings. For a heavily diverse generation like Z, being less liberal or moderate or even somewhat conservative doesn't necessarily mean they will become Republicans. Obviously we can see variations of this behavior among existing adult non-white Democrats. Then again, I'm not sure those vague labels helps this situation much anyway.

That being said, if Republicans were to significantly narrow the gap long-term with Z, they'd have to make serious inroads with non-white youth or win a huge majority of the whites, which probably isn't going to happen. Considering how bad they are doing with existing non-white voters, including the current 18-29 year old non-white youth, I don't see how they do this. Especially over the next 4 years.

In fact, the fact that Z is more diverse might make that generation slightly more center-to-right and yet slightly less Republican. What comes after Generation Z? :P We are out of letters. I think some people referred to those born after 2000 as the "Homeland Generation", meaning they were born into a world where the country will always be involved in some sort of minor war and simply not just arresting people when a drug gang or labor union takes over some jungle a cruise boat away.