Talk Elections

Upcoming municipal by-elections:

- Feb. 13: Toronto Ward 42 (to replace Raymond Cho who was elected to Queen's Park)
- Mar. 27: Georgina, Ontario Ward 1

Provincial (no dates set so far):

- Saskatoon Meewasin (SK)
- Sault Ste. Marie (ON)
- Point Douglas (MB)

Federal (no dates):

- Calgary Heritage (AB) - to replace Stephen Harper
- Calgary Midnapore (AB) - to replace Jason Kenney
- Ottawa-Vanier (ON) - to replace Mauril Bélanger  (RIP)

Manitoba NDP, Kevin Chief (Point Douglas) resigned his seat back in December.
I don't think his resignation is official yet.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/kevin-chief-resigns-1.3896978

Oh yes, I knew I was forgetting something. Thanks!

Markham (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201701/10/01-5058084-chrystia-freeland-remplacera-stephane-dion-aux-affaires-etrangeres.php)-Thornhill and Saint-Laurent: McCallum is leaving politics and headed to the Beijing Embassy, Dion outta Cabinet and to an unspecified embassy.

Both haven't been great performers, Dion has never looked well suited for cabinet, even under Chretien and McCallum has had a number of comments go off the rails.

McCallum's riding is Markham-Thornhill; he used to represent Markham-Unionville up until last election but after redistribution ran here. 2011 was very close between the CPC and LPC; 2015 was not. If the CPC were polling better OR are able to get a very strong well known candidate this would be competitive since there is some person McCallum effect here. Otherwise this will be LPC win.
Dion's riding of Saint Laurent, will probably always go Liberal. The NDP cut the LPC lead to only 13 points in 2011 but in 2015 the lead was 42 points. This is not a Dion riding but rather a LIBERAL one, LPC vote is typically in the 60-70% range.

RB must be stuck in 2014. Dion's riding changed names too (just Saint-Laurent now).

Dion will be Ambassador to Germany and the EU. (https://twitter.com/chrishallcbc/status/818848994180952065)

Calgary Midnapore: Stephanie Kusik will be the next MP. (http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/stephanie-kusie-voted-pc-candidate-in-calgary-midnapore-byelection)

Potential Gouin: Françoise David may be resigning tomorrow, or retiring next year.  (https://twitter.com/M_Biron/status/821883086438854656)

She's retiring. Can QS hold it? Maybe a chance for the NDPQ to run (is that still happening)? Gouin is basically La Petite-Patrie, which pretty much the most leftist area in Quebec.

Ottawa-Vanier: Mme Bélanger endorses Mona Fortier.  (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mauril-belangers-widow-shakes-up-liberal-nomination-battle-in-ottawa-vanier/article33681525/?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links)

The rumour is than QS is trying to convince Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (the most hardline student leader during the 2012 student strikes) to run.

Calgary Midnapore: Grits have chosen their candidate. (https://twitter.com/liberal_party/status/822930982085033986)

Should be an interesting test case for QS. I would guess they hold it based off their relatively strong polling and the fact that they make a solid protest vote option, but what do I know, I can't even predict Anglo results :P

Liberal nomination for Ottawa-Vanier is February 5th.

François Lambert is interested to run for the Liberals. Thinks replacing Stéphane Dion would be an opportunity for him. He is a former dragon on the local Dragon's Den version.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201701/19/01-5061004-lex-dragon-francois-lambert-lorgne-les-liberaux-federaux.php (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201701/19/01-5061004-lex-dragon-francois-lambert-lorgne-les-liberaux-federaux.php)

Talking about it publicly doesn't seem to be the way to be chosen.

Prediction: QS holds it easily, seat belongs to them now & not just David. I'm old enough to remember when QS had no seats (at the time hoping they'd grab PQ seats). :P

With neither the SP or NDP having nominated candidates, the NDP lead the first poll in Saskatoon-Meewasin... barely, within the margin of error

http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/ndp-lead-in-latest-poll-on-saskatoon-meewasin-byelection-1.3253076

NDP 37%, SP 35%, Greens and Liberals at 3% a piece

"The poll surveyed 603 people between Jan. 20 and 21, and carries a margin of error of 3.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20."

The same poll indicates that the NDP has a much bigger lead when you test Ryan Meili (who was nominated last night) against either of the people vying for the Sask Party nomination

I see the Sask NDP winning by a 50-40 margin in the Saskatoon-Meewasin byelecyion. The Sask Party's candidates are both pretty mediocre, having been recently defeated in various elections in different parts of the city (Friesen lost in a different riding last election, and Kaminski got crushed in a city council election on the other side of town just 3 months ago).

The former mayor of Saskatoon, Don Atchison might've been able to win this race for the Sask Party, but I'm gonna say this race is likely NDP.

Atchison is a nut case and very unpopular. Hence why he lost, even against a divided opposition in last year's mayoral election.

He's still popular in suburban Saskatoon, in which a large part of Saskatoon Meewasin comprises of. Talk of the town is that the by-election is happening in either late February or early March, with Wall calling the election shortly after their nomination meeting on the 30th.

Looking at a map Meewasin doesn't look all that suburban to me...its close to downtown and mostly right by the river

In Ontario, the Sault Ste. Marie by-election is shaping up to be a battle of the City Councillors:

http://www.saultstar.com/2017/01/25/krmpotich-to-carry-ndp-banner

NDP nominated Ward 6 Councillor Joe Krmpotich
PCs nominated Ward 5 Councillor Ross Romano

oh, thats not all, Ward 3 Councillor Matthew Shoemaker is considering a run for the Liberals.

Anyone familiar with The Sault local politics?

Well, the northern half of the riding is suburban.

As an endorser of the War on Vowels, I support Krmpotich

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Saskatoon Meewasin includes the neighbourhoods of River Heights, Richmond Heights, City Park, North Park, and Kelsey-Woodlawn.

River Heights and Richmond Heights are suburban, and vote SP/Tory
North Park is a swing neighbourhood
City Park and Kelsey-Woodlawn vote NDP

Saskatoon is such a small city that literally anything outside the central business district would look like "suburbia" to someone from any other city in Canada.

Gouin: PQ still on uncertain on their candidate. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201701/27/01-5063670-candidature-pequiste-a-lelection-partielle-le-pq-de-gouin-divise.php)

I'm sure that Hatman will create a much better map later, but for now, here's my sh**tty Saskatoon Meewasin poll map from the 2016 election.

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Calgary Heritage: Richardson won't run. (http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/braid-politics-get-goofy-as-tension-mounts-in-conservative-unity-drive)

Saint-Laurent: Yolande James is considering.  (http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1014849/yolande-james-politique-federale-circonscription-saint-laurent?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

Ottawa-Vanier: Mona Fortier will be the next MP.

Saskatoon by-election being held on March 2nd.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/saskatoon-meewasin-mainstreet-poll-1.3971635

46% NDP
23% Sask Party
4% Liberal
4% Green

Holy smokes, the Sask Party is getting blown out of the water. This is a riding where they won a majority of the vote just 10 months ago, and now they're struggling to retain half of their previous vote share. With this being a by-election, I doubt many of the undecideds will end up voting.

You beat me to it! here are the Decided as well, even worse for the SP

So not so close in Saskatoon-Meewasin...
All Voters (Decided+Leaning)
NDP - 46% (59%)
SP - 23% (30%)
SL - 4% (7%)
Green - 4% (4%)
undecided - 23%

Mainstreet Polling is a regular here in Saskatchewan, and they're usually pretty accurate.. If Saskatoon-Meewasin is actually this lopsided, then I imagine the NDP would wipe out most of the Sask Party's caucus in Regina and Saskatoon.

I think its part candidate, Meili is highly regarded as a Doctor, and a former leadership candidate who members have been dying to have run but also a riding the NDP does well in even when they do not win it. Also its been nothing but bad news for the SP since winning the last election... polling has had the NDP on the upswing in both cities since then.

Grain of salt, etc. But good news nonetheless. And also, happy to see Elections Saskatchewan has finally released the poll by poll results of the last election.

Hatman, how would you conduct a public opinion poll for a race where there were 29 candidates on the ballot, like the Ward 42 by-election?

Depends on the mode:
-Phone (interviewers wouldn't read the list, unless asked)
-Online (no problem, just list everyone)

Your big problem is if it's IVR, because you need to read the list (press '1' for X). I would try to identify who the main candidates are and have an 'other' option. :)

When I was IVR-polled for the Conservative leadership race a few weeks ago, the message read through all the names (... and press 1-4 for Brad Trost...).  It took such a long time, I couldn't imagine doubling the candidates.

By the way, if you want to remember the names of all 14 CPC leadership candidates, just use the mnemonic:  STOP ROBBOCALLS

(Damn you, Steven Blaney!)

Needless to say it is virtually impossible to do an online survey in a municipal ward since there is no online sample/panel at that granular a level.

Even doing a phone poll in that ward is very very difficult since that ward is very new and heavily heavily made up of recent immigrants - most of whom only have cell phones and no land line and since it is impossible to get cell sample at the ward level - you can only poll landlines - which may be very unrepresentative of the voters.

FWIW, I expect Neethan Shan to win simply because on a 29 person ballot - he is the one and only candidate who has run in that area several times before and would be a recognizable name

Yeah, I expect him to win too. And maybe with 10-15% of the vote!

Saint-Laurent: DeSousa is running. (http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/desousa-to-seek-federal-liberal-nomination-in-st-laurent?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) As is Yolande James. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2017/02/10/ex-quebec-minister-will-run-to-replace-stephane-dion-in-montreal-riding-source/#.WJ4ayjsrKUl)

Trudeau has been taking his time calling the by-elections, but Ottawa-Vanier is due in about a week, so we should have some federal ones to watch.

Gouin: PQ won't field a candidate. (https://twitter.com/M_Biron/status/831210100958298112)

Why would they do that?

PQ's trying to forge a closer relationship and QS would win anyway.

As I expected, former Ontario NDP President Neethan Shan won the Ward 42 byelection in toronto. The margin is impressive as he got 46% in a 29 person field and the second place guy got 12%. Interestingly the guy who was public endorsed by Doug Ford AND was backed by the Ontario Liberal machine And was backed by outgoing council Cho came in third with less than 10% of the vote

I knew Shan would probably win, but that is certainly an impressive victory. I figured voters would've got sick of him running for election every six months. So what, we are now headed for a third school board by-election to fill his seat? :P

Perhaps always constantly running for office in basically the same area helped? He had the name most people knew from the million times he ran. 45% is still really impressive. My first fear was, ugh is he going to bold in 2018... but at the news conference he said he's running again for council (was specific) in 2018. I think Councillor of MPP was really where he wanted to be anyway.
It will be nice to have some more suburban progressives on council, there aren't many (Carroll, Perruzza, Augimeri, Colle, now Shan)

City council lord make about $110,000 per year and as an incumbent Shan probably has a job for life now...look how long a piece of deadwood like Raymond Cho lasted?

There were other cases in 2014 where an impressive previous run/runs made a Council-bidder an open-seat shoe-in (Justin Di Ciano in Etobicoke stands out)

Results:
Neethan Shan: 4765 (45.7%)
Zuhair Syed: 1452 (13.9%)
Hratch Aynedjian: 1058 (10.2%)
26 others: 3143 (30.2%)

With two candidates using red, no wonder Liberals couldn't get behind a candidate!

This ward covers the Malvern community of the city (would be the likely name of the ward if Toronto had proper ward names). It's only 10% White, and 43% South Asian, many of whom are Tamil like Shan. 17% of the ward has Tamil as its mother tongue.

Not to mention Joe Cressy running in the Trinity-Spadina federal byelection in July 2014...losing and then getting elected to city council in October 2014 with a margin very similar to Neethan Shan's (i.e. i think Cressy had about 45% and a gaggle of also rans had around 12% each)

Markham-Thornhill: PMO staffer Mary Ng running. (http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/15/pmo-insider-takes-leave-of-absence-expected-to-run-for-office/?utm_source=Paid+Morning+Brief&utm_campaign=32b18ccfda-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_12_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_a43c5d924a-32b18ccfda-206779105)

Ottawa-Vanier: Set for April 3. (http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1017765/election-partielle-ottawa-vanier-date-justin-trudeau-politique-federale)

Trudeau's not grouping the Calgary ones with Ottawa-Vanier?

Trudeau has until:
 the end of February to call for Calgary Heritage (Stephen Harper)
the end of Match to call Calgary Midnapore (Jason Kenney)
and during the summer to call Markham-Thornill (John MacCallum) and Saint-Laurent (Stephane Dion)

Markham-Thornhill: Further proof that de jure candidate appointments are better than Justin's de facto ones. (http://www.hilltimes.com/2017/02/20/pmo-director-appointments-ng-jolts-liberal-nomination-contest-markham-thornhill-potential-candidates-reconsidering-run-concerns-fairness/96735)

I used to be an acquaintance of Braeden Caley.

Off topic but still related, what's going on with the sudden drop in support for the Liberals?


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Two things.
1. Not going through with changing Canada's system, and moving away from FPTP
2. Essentially lying.  Even people who want the current system maintained acknowledge he blatantly lied.  And if he honestly didn't understand what changing the system meant, he comes off as unintelligent/making empty promises to get elected.

So, what are your guys' rating on the Saskatoon by-election? I'm gonna say it's "likely NDP" until I see another poll showing the NDP far ahead, in which case I'll say it's a "safe NDP" race.

Well, the Saskatchewan Party defeated the New Democrats by 32 points in the 2016 election, but the last poll has them up just 16 points province-wide. Saskatoon Meewasin was an 8-point victory. So I'd assume the New Democrats are favored, but I wouldn't necessarily take it to the bank, since there is little province-wide polling and we don't know if province-wide swings are necessarily replicated in Saskatoon.

Progressives outside of Canada haven't got the memo yet, but lil' Justin has been a huge disappointment. He tells us what we want to hear, but doesn't do what we want to be done. I don't know how many people actually care about electoral reform, but it's probably enough to account for a couple of points in the polls.

Haha. Come on. That's just rhetoric from an NDP diehard.

Nanos, a CATI pollster that has "nailed" every fed CA election result, since 2004, which equates to 5 election cycles... is the only CA fed pollster worth it's weight in gold - the gold standard of CA polling. Everyone else is just cheap polling junk. Worthless. Period.

Now let's look at the latest weekly Nanos CA polling numbers of February 10, 2017. Firstly, the fed Libs have been bleeding support to the Cons! Your alleged "argument" is lost right there.

BTW, the key data point that drives political party preferences, at the end of the day, are Nanos' "Best PM" numbers:

JT (Lib): 46.36%
Ambrose (Con): 19.12%
Unsure: 19.02%
Mulcair: (NDP) 9.65%
May (Green): 4.91%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/data

Oh look, lotuslander found a thread that's not about BC. Guess it's finally time to put him on ignore.

You can tell Nik Nanos I say 'hi'.

Haha. Idiots will always be idiots. And the ideological NDP Scientology/Jehovah's Witness sect on this site will always worship their "high priest". It is what it is. ;)

Behave like adults.

Other federal by-elections called for April 3.

So... these ridings are up:

Calgary Heritage (CPC hold)
Calgary Midnapore (CPC hold)
Saint-Laurent (LPC hold)
Markham-Thornhill (most likely the most competitive, toss CPC-LPC)
Ottawa-Vanier (Likely LPC, only riding the NDP can probably even legit contest and put up a fight)

Saint-Laurent: James may have Justin's tacit blessing. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/star-candidate-yolande-james-faces-uphill-battle-to-succeed-dion/article34115648/)

These five by-elections look like they'll be the most boring ever. 

Gouin (http://plus.lapresse.ca/screens/21d47acc-a4b4-4f5f-8855-eb72c0b04a89%7Ch-OBCz5JVGQj.html): PQ is assuming GND will be the QS candidate even though that still hasn't been confirmed. PSPP wanted to run there but Lisée said no because GND beat all candidates, including ex-MNA Nicolas Girard, in internals. PSPP's been riding shopping and I assume Lisée will find him something by election time.

Conservative leadership candidate Rick Peterson is interested in running in Saint-Laurent. Why???

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201702/25/01-5073277-le-conservateur-rick-peterson-veut-ravir-la-circonscription-de-saint-laurent.php (http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201702/25/01-5073277-le-conservateur-rick-peterson-veut-ravir-la-circonscription-de-saint-laurent.php)

A game-changer!

Markham-Thornhill: Fix is in for PMO staffer Mary Ng.  (http://www.hilltimes.com/2017/02/27/markham-thornhill-liberals-open-revolt-alleging-party-rigging-nomination-process-get-pm-trudeaus-top-adviser-ng-elected-candidate/97556)

When Markham-Thornhill, which had a Liberal majority of 10,000 in 2015, is considered the closest to "toss-up," I think you're right.

That was the 2015 election though; If you look at how the 2011 election was transposed on to the new Riding you got:
LPC - 37%
CPC - 36%
NPD - 23%

We really don't think we're going to have a redux of the Ignatieff Catastrophe do we?

The notional 2011 result was the byproduct of added west-of-the-404 polls from Peter Kent's Thornhill superstronghold (which were still something of a Lib-Con draw in 2015), and the Tamil-leaning eastern polls getting caught up in Laytonmania.  With the NDP all but disintegrating as a factor by 2015, the bigger question might be if the "ChinaCon" swing evident in CPC winning Markham-Unionville (or the provincial PCs winning Scarborough-RR) might migrate into the less uppity environs of Milliken, Armadale, et al.

The NDP is likely to poll its traditional pre-2011 numbers, 10% or so likely, as it is nationally about 16% or so; But the Conservatives are polling better then the 2015 numbers and without McCallum and already internal issues with the Liberal nomination, I just don't think this is a safe LPC hold.

Saint-Laurent: DeSousa red-lit, James will be their next MP. (https://twitter.com/danlebla/status/836612879470190592)

Mainstreet had another poll for Saskatoon-Meewasin and shows a dead heat

February 23  All Voters (Decided+Leanoing)

NDP 37% (44%)
SP 39% (45%)
Sl  3% (5%)
Green 5% (6%)
Undecided 15%

margin of error 4.7%
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/dead-heat-meewasin/ (http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/dead-heat-meewasin/)

Gonna predict a 5% victory for the Sask NDP in Saskatoon Meewasin. The weird polling shifts aside, the fundamentals of the race are pointing towards an NDP win.

Here's a map for y'all:

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I think the Sask Party may just eek out a victory. We'll see. It's all about turnout as the riding is heavily polarized between north & south.

Results 10/50 polls results

NDP - 52%
SKP - 40%

Would be nice knowing where those polls were though..

The Sask NDP is most likely going to win by double digits in Saskatoon Meewasin.

22/50; 55% to 38%.

Let's not call this yet, we don't know where the polls are coming from.

40 out of 50 polls: 52-40 NDP.

Calling it for the Meilli. There are only about 800 or 900 more votes coming in, and he has a 400+ vote lead stockpiled.

yeah, it's over. Huzzah!

Markham-Thornhill: another candidate withdraws.  (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2017/03/02/candidate-withdraws-from-liberal-nomination-for-ontario-byelection-race/#.WLjrVjsrKUl)

Saskatoon-Meewasin Final:

Meili, NDP - 54.2 % (2,666 votes),
Penner, SP - 39.9% (1,962 votes)
Lamoureaux, Liberal - 3.7%(180 votes)
Prokopchuk, PC - 1.3 % (62 votes)
Setyo, Green - 1.1% (53 votes)

voter turnout is at 40.62 per cent (4,923 of 12,121 registered voters)

So that last poll out, was odd/bad polling? and might have scared the crud out of the NDP to get the vote out.

I wonder what the result would have been like had Meili not been the NDP candidate...

I think a bit tighter, but still an NDP win. I think Penner was a very strong candidate and that without him, it would've been even more of a blowout.

The Sask NDP pulled out all the stops to win the by-election, and a strong GOTV operation was included. I think most, if not the entire Sask NDP caucus was pulling the vote, alongside a bunch of volunteers from across the province.

Swings:
NDP +11.2%
SP: -10.6%
Lib: -0.8%
Grn: -1.1%

Two party average swing: 10.9% SP to NDP

:)

Markham-Thornhill: Mary Ng is the next MP. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2017/03/04/pmo-staffer-will-run-for-the-liberals-in-federal-byelection-3/#.WLv2QTsrKUl)

Sault Ste. Marie: councilor Matthew Shoemaker won't run for Team Wynne.  (https://twitter.com/spaikin/status/839479111097729025)

Looking more and more like a PC-NDP race.

With Hydro being 'UGE in the North, more so then southern/urban Ontario and the PCs having no plan... this is feels more advantage NDP, but, it is the Soo so anything can happen (the riding tends to buck trends, 95 the NDP vote increased as the party went down in flames to Harris, and 2011 federally the NDP MP was defeated by the CPC during the Orange Crush)

Gouin: confirmed that GND will be the QS candidate and he'll also run to be co-spox.  (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201703/06/01-5076155-gabriel-nadeau-dubois-ferait-le-saut-en-politique.php)

Saint-Laurent: James lost the nomination to a local schoolteacher.  (https://twitter.com/RosieBarton/status/839682073027887104) She  (https://twitter.com/filionrayTVA/status/839682196164182016)also came a distant 3rd. SAD! (which is why you appoint)

Lol

How hard is it for the LPC to sign up instamembers en masse? If they want to rig a nomination, they should do it the old fashioned way.

Oh wow, she's probably gonna be in that seat for 40-50 years, considering how young she is and how safe the riding has been for the Liberals.

yeah, this is just incompetence, or perhaps the Liberals have been feeling the heat on electoral reform, so are trying to avoid any democratic scandals by avoiding meddling in nomination races?

They aren't doing a good job at that either then! i.e. Markham-Thornhill's nomination mess

The Saint-Laurent LPC nomination vote was for the first round:

Rizqy 539
Lambropoulos 431
James 398

And after it was 626 for Lambropoulos to 508. I think they used preferential ballot so I don't know if a candidate can lose vote on the secound round. These are the numbers that were reported.
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2017/03/08/la-candidate-liberale-dans-saint-laurent-sera-connue-ce-soir-1 (http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2017/03/08/la-candidate-liberale-dans-saint-laurent-sera-connue-ce-soir-1)

The other candidates are Jimmy Yu who also ran in the last election for the Conservatives. Mathieu Auclair for the NDP. For the Green party it's longtime environmentalist Daniel Green who is deputy leader. William Fayad for the Bloc, he ran previously for the BQ, PQ and for borough mayor of Saint-Laurent with Projer Montréal last municipal election. 

By-election day today.  Polls close in just over an hour.

Taking a look at the candidates.  The Conservatives seem to be doubling down on appealing to their hardcore base.  Four of their five:

1.Bob Benzen, Calgary-Heritage,  spearheaded the “Decade of Excellence” project to thank Stephen Harper for his nearly ten years as our prime minister. The “Decade of Excellence” campaign involved placing print advertisements and billboards across Canada with a public thank you to Mr. Harper from Canadians “coast to coast to coast.” At the 2016 Conservative National Convention in Vancouver, the “Decade of Excellence” display was covered by several media outlets and praised by Conservatives from across the country.

2.Stephanie Kusie, Calgary-Midnapore, Executive Director of Common Sense Calgary, a municipal anti tax organization similar to the so-called Canadian Taxpayer's Federation. To be fair to her though, prior to this was a foreign service officer.  I hope she isn't the next Chris Alexander.

3.Ragevan Paranchothy, Markham-Thornhill, recently discovered to have recently tweeted a number of global warming denial tweets (along the lines of "if the world is warming, why are there more polar bears?")

4.Jimmy Yu, Saint Laurent, In a speech following the announcement, Yu highlighted his immigrant roots and panned the Liberals for authorizing safe injection sites.

"The Liberal government already approved three injection sites, and I will never allow [one] to be in my riding."

And while he wouldn't formally endorse any Conservative leadership candidates, leadership hopeful Kellie Leitch was there to show her support.

Of course, Canadians have a right to vote for whoever they want. But, I don't think these are the sorts of candidates that will expand the Conservative Party base.

In contrast, for instance, the NDP is running several candidates not frequently associated with the NDP:

1.Emilie Taman, Ottawa-Vanier a former federal prosecutor (essentially fired for seeking the NDP nomination for the 2015 election, she's now a law professor.  Personally I can see both sides of whether a a public servant in a non partisan position should be allowed to run politically)

2.Khalis Ahmed, Calgary-Heritage, a professional geologist and senior project manager at Lily Petroleum Ltd.  In his speech at the nomination meeting (on the NDP website) he spoke of the need for building the Energy East Pipeline, but in a way that is environmentally sound.

3.Gregory Hines, Markham-Thornhill, the CEO of DOAHL Academy of Dance (Dance on a Higher Level) Dancing School

I expect these all to be real sleepers.

John Turmel is a candidate in Ottawa-Vanier.

...with one poll reporting, Cons leading in Markham Thornhill! :o

tudeau needs to resign right now

Liberals now lead 124-114.

liberals are unbeatable

In all seriousness the NDP is only at 50 votes in Markham while the Liberals and Tories are approaching 1,000.

John "The Engineer" Turmel has one vote.

Progressive Canadian Party is above the Greens in Markham for now. The NDP is not having a good night thus far.

It's telling that while both opposition parties are in leadership races, the Conservatives have held their base while the NDP has crashed to fringe party status.

Except in Ottawa-Vanier.

Yes, but the NDP is much, much stronger in Ottawa-Vanier than in any of these other ridings.

CBC has projected Calgary Heritage & Ottawa-Vanier Blue & Red.

A good showing for the NDP in Ottawa-Vanier, but a bad one in Saint Laurent.

Yeah. Doesn't bode well for the next election for the Dippers in Quebec.

Needless to say if Trudeau didn't impose his preferred candidate on Markham Thornhill, the margin of victory would have been more than the current 12-15%.

Is Ng unpopular in the area?

https://www.hilltimes.com/2017/02/27/markham-thornhill-liberals-open-revolt-alleging-party-rigging-nomination-process-get-pm-trudeaus-top-adviser-ng-elected-candidate/97556

The relatively high profile Green Party candidate in Saint Laurent for the by-election probably took disproportionally from the NDP.

The Green candidate is still in front of the NDP candidate in St-Laurent.

I must say, as disappointing as the CPC margins in Calgary are, they're not too surprising. Aside from the histories of those ridings, the other campaigns seemed to have little-to-no ground game.

I still proudly voted for Scott Forsyth in Calgary Heritage though - the thought of Bob Benzen as my MP-to-be is more than a little nauseating.

Markham--Thornhill (189/189 polls):
Mary Ng (Liberal): 51.3% (-4.4)
Ragavan Paranchothy (Conservative): 39.0% (+6.7)
Gregory Hines (NDP): 3.5% (-7.2)
Dorian Baxter (Progressive Canadian): 3.0%
Caryn Bergmann (Green): 2.2% (+0.9)
Brendan Reilly (Libertarian): 0.6%
Above Znoneofthe (Independent): 0.4%

Final election night result in Markham-Thornhill

Total votes: 19,215
Marry Ng, Liberal, 9,856, 51.3%
Ragavan Paranchothy, Conservative, 7,501, 39.0%
Gregory Hines, NDP,  671, 3.5%
Dorian Baxter, Progressive Canadian, 566, 2.9%
Caryn Bergmann, Green, 426, 2.2%
Brendan Thomas Reilly, Libertarian, 118, 0.6%   
Above Znoneofthe, Independent, 77, 0.4%

Registered Voters: 69,838
Percentage: 27.51%

Important, too, to note that she's the daughter of former Supreme Court justice Louise Arbour.

Saint-Laurent (182/182 polls):
Emmanuella Lambropoulos (Liberal): 59.1% (-2.5)
Jimmy Yu (Conservative): 19.6% (+0.1)
Daniel Green (Green): 8.0% (+6.6)
Mathieu Auclair (NDP): 7.8% (-3.7)
William Fayad (Bloc Quebecois): 4.9% (+0.2)
Chinook Blais-Leduc (Rhinoceros): 0.7%

A take away, for what these Volkshammer-level seats are worth:

The Liberals are clearly holding their 2015 vote and continuing to drain from the (currently) listless Dippers while the Tories have little to worry about in their strongholds. The reduced margin in Markham is mainly due to (rather appalling) branch stacking for Ng, but these types of seats will eventual start to give the Government headaches closer to 2019.

And Canadians don't feel like voting in by-elections.

Calgary Heritage (204/204 polls):
Bob Benzen (Conservative): 71.5% (+7.7)
Scott Forsyth (Liberal): 21.7% (-4.3)
Khalis Ahmed (NDP): 2.9% (-5.4)
Taryn Knorren (Green): 1.8% (-0.3)
Jeff Willerton (Christian Heritage): 1.4%
Darcy Gerow (Libertarian): 0.4%
Stephen Garvey (National Advancement): 0.3%

Calgary Midnapore (230/230 polls):
Stephanie Kusie (Conservative): 77.2% (+10.5)
Haley Brown (Liberal): 17.0% (-5.6)
Holly Heffernan (NDP): 2.5% (-5.2)
Ryan Zedic (Green): 2.1% (-0.6)
Larry Heather (Christian Heritage): 0.9%
Kulbir Singh Chawla (National Advancement): 0.3%

Ottawa--Vanier (255/255 polls):
Mona Fortier (Liberal): 51.2% (-6.4)
Emilie Taman (NDP): 28.7% (+9.4)
Adrian Papara (Conservative): 15.4 (-3.7)
Nira Dookeran (Green): 3.3% (+0.2)
John Turmel (Independent): 0.5%
Damien Wilson (Libertarian): 0.5% (-0.3)
Christina Wilson (Independent): 0.3%

Yeah, the small turnout in Liberal seats to me shows that the there's no outrage at the Trudeau Government, and that people aren't clamoring for change.

The only seat where the NDP had any campaign at all, as opposed to just a name on the ballot, was Ottawa Vanier where their vote went up 10 points. To the extent that byelection indicate anything at all, it shows that the NDP can cut into the Liberal vote when it makes an effort. Vanier was the only one of the five seats that would ever conceivably be an NDP target on a good day.

Btw, Emilie Taman is a superb candidate. The next Ontario provincial election is. A year away and while the federal Liberals are still relatively popular, the Ontario Liberals most definitely are not. The Ontario Liberals are so unpopular they could be reduced to half a dozen seats. I wonder if Taman could be convinced to run for the Ontario NDP in Ottawa Centre (where she actually lives)

And Vanier would be one of those half dozen seats!

Exactly. That seat has been a Grit stronghold since 1935. The Ontario Liberals will probably do horrendously poorly at the provincial election, but I don't see that having much of an indicative effect federally.

Aggregate vote change.  Turnout was about 50% of the 2015 turnout in all of the ridings.

2015
Total votes: 268,534
Liberal: 114,752, 42.7%
Conservative: 113,503, 42.3%
NDP: 30,605, 11.4%
Green: 6,396, 2.4%
Other: 3,278, 1.2%

2017
Total votes: 124,483
Liberal: 47,346, 38.0%, -4.7%
Conservative: 57,706, 46.4%, +4.1%
NDP: 12,224, 9.8%, -1.6%
Green: 4,070, 3.3% +0.9%
Other: 3,137, 2.5%

Additional notes:
1.The NDP's increase in Ottawa-Vanier masks its declines in the other four ridings. 
2.The actual Green Party vote in Saint Laurent (not just its vote percent) increased over 2015.

Don't forget, there was just a provincial by-election in Ottawa-Vanier, where the Liberals still won by a large margin.

Oh yeah of course. I meant horribly province-wide, and yet they still hold Vanier! ;D

What was the story there w/ Daniel Green?

Turns out he's actually the deputy leader of the party, so I imagine the Greens focused a ton of resources on St-Laurent.

Toronto might hold another City Council by-election, Scarborough ward 44 Councillor Ron Moeser has died
https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2017/04/18/toronto-councillor-ron-moeser-dies.html

How popular was he? Every election he's been in since 2003 has been razor close.

Unlikely. The practice in toronto has been not to have a byelection when we are past the half way mark of the city council term. I expect council to pick a temporary replacement who will promise not to run next year

They really should promise they won't run for elected office.  We saw what happened in Etobicoke with James Maloney.  The City of Toronto basically gave him the name recognition for free.

David Soknacki?

Gouin  (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201704/26/01-5092071-lelection-complementaire-dans-gouin-aura-lieu-le-29-mai.php?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)set for May 29. GND will win bigly of course.

Provincial Louis-Hébert: Hamad quitting politics. Good riddance. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201704/27/01-5092386-sam-hamad-je-rentre-a-la-maison.php)

Sault Ste. Marie finally called for June 1. (https://twitter.com/lamoureuxja/status/859810435956191232)

What about the Manitoba by-election to replace New Democrat Kevin Chief?

Called today. June 13.

http://news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html?archive=&item=41543

Well, the one improvement the Tory government is over the previous NDP government is they only take 4 months to call by-elections instead of a year :P

Will be interesting.  The NDP (and ONDP) always seem within reach in Sault Ste Marie, but even with strong candidates the last couple of times, they didn't do the best.  I do expect the Liberals to lose a lot the vote, I'm not sure the former mayor is as popular as the Liberals like to point out, and with the Liberal unpopularity in Ontario, particularly in the North, I see voters moving over to either the ONDP or PCs.  Should the ONDP take this riding, it shows that the Blue/Orange tossups are in play for the ONDP, and that the PCs aren't going to be able to take them for granted.

FWIW, I fully expect a 3-way race in the Soo, and wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being a PC-NDP race.

The Liberals may be running a former mayor, but she lost in the last mayoral election (to another Liberal to boot), which is usually a sign that she wasn't very popular. In municipal politics, it is fairly rare for an incumbent to lose.

Sturgeon River-Parkland: Ambrose will resign in June. (https://twitter.com/JPTasker/status/864219730168688646)

Is there an explanation for this?

Gouin: GND should win bigly on Tuesday.  (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201705/27/01-5101938-partielle-dans-gouin-gabriel-nadeau-dubois-est-optimiste.php)

GND has a yuge lead with 9/151 reporting. Results here. http://resultats.dgeq.org/resultatsPreliminaires.fr.html

Gouin

QS 68%
PLQ 12%
CAQ 6.5%
Vert 6.5%
ON 5%
Others and 6 candidates with zero vote

Option Nationale in third now. Today the PQ Gouin riding president said he would vote ON. Maybe they will have a goos showing if it's a trend for PQ orphans.   

Radio-Canada calls it for GND

Some questions:
I thought there were talks of an ON-QS merger? And yet they're in third?
I also thought the CAQ was polling in first place in province wide polling? I know Gouin isn't their best area, but they're in danger of finishing fifth.

With QS at 68% it's more interesting to watch 3to 5th place and the minor candidates with single digit votes. Every candidate has more than 0 vote now.

That was only Mainstreet, Leger still has the Grits ahead. QS-ON talks haven't gotten that far yet.

QS voted to have talks of merge with QS yes. The PQ riding president chose to vote ON since the QS agreement is not happening so PQ voters might not vote QS or stay home or do as he is doing and vote ON.

CAQ is weak in Montreal and especially in a leftist area so I don't think it's a surprise if they do badly.

ON in second (so yes must be the orphan PQ vote helping ON)

I know, but they are lower than what they got in the last election. Though this is very common in by-elections for "third parties" to do poorly.

CAQ got 8.7% in last general election. They are at about 7% right now. I don't consider it much of a difference. Even with higher result provincially CAQ possibly will not rise more here. 

Seems the interesting thing is battle for second. The PLQ vote is much lower than in the election.

At half way, QS at 68%. About 20 votes difference between ON and PLQ for second.

PLQ in second with about 40 vote lead.

Bloc Pot has more votes than conservative party.

Final results
QS: 69.2% (+18.2%)
PLQ: 8.9% (-8.9%)
ON: 7.9% (+6.7%)
CAQ: 6.7% (-2.0%)
PVQ: 4.6%
Others: 2.7%

Turnout 32.7%

2 Party Swing: 13.6% (PLQ to QS)

Poor GND, not one person here referred to him by his full name: Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel_Nadeau-Dubois

Ontarians, will Dippers or Tories win the Soo tomorrow? I assume Dippers.

I haven't heard any rumblings from NDP circles, so I suspect silence means they don't think they'll win it.

Not sure if the Liberal rebounding is true or not, but they're making a bunch of left wing promises; not sure if any of it has to do with the by-election, but perhaps they think they have an outside shot of winning it?

Sault Ste. Marie is one of those ridings where individual candidacy matters a lot, so you can't just extrapolate from past election results.

Rebounding in Kouvalis' poll or the riding? Forum still shows the usual Tory lead.

The province-wide poll by Campaign Research.

Sault Ste Marie, federally, was one of the only ridings (if not the only?) where an NDP incumbent lost during the big orange wave of Jack Layton that put them into opposition.  Trends, like was mentioned previously, don't really matter here.  I do hear that the NDP candidate is the most well liked.

It was not the only one, the NDP also lost Elmwood-Transcona in 2011.

What is the riding like in terms of demographics, socioeconomic status, etc?

Star: Grits sound pessimistic, Brown downplaying expectations, Horwath sounds optimistic. (https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/05/31/voters-in-sault-ste-marie-pass-judgment-on-wynne-government-in-byelection-thursday.html)

Very working class city.  Large Italian Canadian population.

Honesty I have no clue what'll happen there.  The Soo often defies the general trend.

Yup, even provincially... back in 95, when the ONDP got crushed, SSM saw an increase in vote for the ONDP.
Fingers crossed on an ONDP win!

And yet, in 1990 when the ONDP formed government, they had a large decrease in vote share!

Handy chart:

()

Polls close at 9. (https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en)

Grits leading right now.

Close Dipper-Tory race.

Joe Krmpotich - NDP - 861 - 34.9%
Ross Romano - PC - 852 - 34.5%
Debbie Amaroso - LIB - 643 - 26.1%
Kara Flannigan - Green - 55 - 2.2%
Others - 56 - 2.3%

PC in the lead by 71 votes over NDP. About a third of polls reporting.
John Turmel is last with 8 votes.

PC now 205 votes ahead.

PC extending the lead to about 400 at half point.

PC continues to extend the lead now to ~600 votes at 60% reporting.

Looks like the Tories have got it.

Tories now 1,000 votes ahead.

PC at 39%. None of the above party in 5th place with 1.25%

As they are coming down the stretch, PC 39%, NDP 33%, LIB 23%

Paikin calls it. (https://twitter.com/spaikin/status/870462389027835905) As does CP. (https://twitter.com/allisonjones_cp/status/870463587021619201)

Sad! The NDP has a fairly low ceiling, clearly. Would've needed the Liberals to do a bit better to bring the Tories down.

Not really.  More that voters chose to "back a winner" (i.e. the presumption that the PCs will win the next election.

Worth noting that this is the first time the provincial PCs have won a seat beyond Nipissing in 30 years.

Final results Sault Ste Marie

Ross Romano PC 10,391 40.30% (+27.91%)
Joe Krmpotich NDP 8535 33.10% (+7.63%)
Debbie Amarosa Liberal 5919 22.96% (-35.57)
Kara Flannigan Green 512 1.99% (-1.24%)
Above Znoneofthe None of the above party 310 1.20%
Gene Balfour Libertarian  71 0.28% (-0.10%)
John Turmel Pauper 47 0.18%

Turnout 43.93%
https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en

LOL Grits are screwed next year.

Right, but the NDP has rarely ever hit 40% in this riding. There is definitely a ceiling.

The NDP has won upwards of 43-49% of the vote here (1999 they won 43%, in 87 it was 49%), and they did see a swing of almost 8% but I agree I think it has more to do with a general PC swing across the province. Its the OLP who dropped from 58% to 23% here that have to worry. With Scarborough and now SSM losses.
I think the NDP does have to worry a little though, the North is somewhat "their" territory, continues to be their best polled area... they don't want to lose to the PCs in the Liberal ridings. But then again this is SSM so.

The PCs won Cochrane South in 1987, so like exactly 30 years

Sure, the NDP has cracked 40% before, but that was with Tony Martin on the ballot, and his popularity began to wane in the 2000s. I don't think the NDP can get to those numbers any more in the Soo.

One thing to keep in mind about Northern Ontario is that the cities are actually far more right wing than the rural areas (at least economically), so while the NDP can win in areas like Kenora, Algoma, Nickel Belt, Timiskaming and Cochrane, it will have trouble in Sudbury, the Soo and Thunder Bay. There is a base in those cities, but they can only win with the right vote splits.

One of the key issues the NDP will have to deal with is bridging the populist North with the bobo ridings in southern Ontario, something they are now having trouble with. Jack Layton was able to do it, but Horwath and Mulcair could not.

Oh Agreed, Candidate is also important here which I think was talked about, I'm not fully versed on Krmpotich other then he was a councillor a union steel guy. Wasn't enough with the PCs riding high and the Liberals still holding 20+%

Its true, cities tend to be more right-wing (due to being the regional centres where you find more wealth, professionals, etc) the NDP did manage to squeak a win in Sudbury in 2014... only to lose it with a mess of a candidate who stepped down. The split happened, just benefited the PCs this time more so. Krmpotich already mentioned there may be a re-match...

Speaking of candidate strengths, I'm not sure how much this was discussed,  but Krmpotich and Romano both represented the same ward on city council, so they have "run against" each other in the past, even though it was a 2 person seat. The 2014 result was:

Krmpotich: 2085
Romano: 1643
Losing candidates: 2681

Krmpotich was one of the incumbents, while Romano wasn't, which may have helped him.

It will be interesting to see who won their ward last night. Looking at the 2008 and 2011 federal poll maps, it looks like the ward (which covers the west part of the city) is pretty evenly split between NDP supporters and Tories.

Let's not lose sight of the elephant in the room. In 2014 Sault Ste. Marie was the second safest Ontario Liberal seat in the entire province! They took 59% of the vote there. Their vote crashed by 36 points to just 23% - if that swing were replicated across the province the Liberals would be reduced to just one seat!

In related news, Romano will resign his council seat on the 12th. (http://www.saultstar.com/2017/06/02/council-will-determine-how-to-fill-seat-at-june-12-meeting)

Irrelevant spin. I've stated numerous times that Sault Ste. Marie is a very different riding from the rest of the province, and therefore that ~32% swing will not be replicated across the province.

It's a byelection. This happens all the time and pundits still don't learn. The government party​ loses 20% plus in a byelection, we get all these predictions of doom, but the when the general election comes around, the swing is almost always more pedestrian.

I don't like the OLP and think they're doomed to lose but even a 20% is kind of unlikely, much less 36%.

Of coourse i don't seriously expect the Ontario Liberals to drop 36 points across the province and lose two thirds of their support from the last election...but its still a pretty serious rebuke to come in such a distant third in a seat that was previously won by such a huge margin. This will fuel sentiments inside the OLP that Wynne is toxic and needs to be replaced.

Patrick Brown sure is showing that he is a contender.  However, some of the reaction is quite hyper-sensationalist, making it seem like this PC win would be akin to a  Toronto-Danforth, or other leftist riding, win.  This was a seat that went Conservative federally, was on the PCs radar.  Sault Ste Marie has had 3 way splits for some time.  It is not that shocking that the PCs won.

And lest we forget, it was the top riding in Ontario for the Confederation of Regions in 1990.

Citywise, don't forget Timmins--though there, the "bourgeois tendencies" have tended to be counteracted by the rest of whatever riding it's in.

And speaking of Timmins, federal NDP leadership contender Charlie Angus practically personifies the populist North/bobo South bridge idea.

Sault Ste. Marie is the kind of place that would have swung to Trump big time if it were in the US.

Timmins is another good example for sure. And good point about Angus, which is why he'd be a pretty good leader (if he improves his French).


What??? If anything the more rural NDP ridings in the north would be more likely to swing to Trump.

Not as shocking a proposition as you think.  Working class city with large Italian population.

Just because Soo's a city doesn't mean it's a *city* city.  It's more the size of Muncie than Indianapolis, after all.  (And it's not really a "college town", Algoma notwithstanding.)

For the record: across the river, Chippewa County went 59.1 Trump vs 34.8 Clinton.  (In 2012, 53.2 Romney, 45.6 Obama.  In 2008, 49.5 McCain, 49.0 Obama.)

Quick-and-dirty Sault Ste. Marie by-election results map:

()

vs. 2014 General Election results map:

()

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  :D (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

Thanks.

I liked my joke about the Soo. I'm sure nobody has ever come up with that before!  :D

oh wow, I hadn't even noticed!

Can't wait for your take on the 'Poe Lock'.

I have none.  What is the Poe Lock?

()

(hey, I have personal ethnic licence ;-) )

As for the Soo, the far west is rural-dominated, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soo_Locks

Poor Meathead.

You guys are dating yourselves with these All in the Family references!

Anyways, geographically the far west is 'dominated' by a lot of farms, but I'd imagine most of the population is urban.

So I did get some time today to do a write up on my blog :)

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/06/point-douglas-by-election-preview.html

Thanks!

The name of the B.C 'caretaker' health minister is Mary Polak.

Is this the kind of thing people would be interested in me doing more of in the future?

()

Point Douglas
2 Polls


NDP 56
LIB 24
PC 18
MP 4
Green 3
COmm 1

Even with just a few polls in, it's obvious the NDP has won it. Looking at a worse result than in 2016 though, but still too early to determine.

After 15/47 Polls, NDP at 48%, LIB 26%, PC 15%

Looks like they probably won't break 50% :( Not a good result.

CBC calls Point DOuglas to NDP, NDP now at 46% (23/47 Polls)

After 37/47 Polls

NDP 43.6%
LIN 30.2%
PC 15.5%

Turnout looks to be under 30%

No! Don't EVER do it again.  :D (Just kidding)

Yes, thanks.  It's quite helpful.

I've been keeping a running tally, as each poll report. (Finding the gain in votes for each party as each poll came in)
It looks like the Liberals manage to win at least 5 polls, most likely a few more since there in cases where I received more than 1 polls at time.
It look like the PCs manage to win one poll. (Most likely the one they won in the last election, in South Point Douglas)
In one poll there was almost a three way tie (PC and LIB 24 votes, NDP 23 votes)

Latest Results: 46/47 Polls

NDP 1,282 (41.9%)
LIB 943 (30.8%)
PC 504 (16.4%)
Manitoba 173 (5.6%)
Green130 (4.2%)
Comm. 26 (0.8%)

Turnout at 28.6%

Well, it will make for a more interesting map.

With all polls reporting:

NDP: 44.3% (-13.5)
Lib: 29.1% (+9.6)
PC: 16.2% (-0.3)
MP: 5.2%
Grn: 4.2% (-0.8)
Comm: 0.8% (-0.3)

Turnout: 32.3% (-10.2)

2 party avg. swing: 11.5% NDP to Liberal

Final Poll is in (most likely the advance poll, with 401 votes, NDP got 62.8% in that poll)

NDP 1,534 (44.3%)
LIB 1,006 (29.1%)
PC 562 (16.2%)
MB 181 (5.2%)
Green 147 (4.2%)
Comm 29 (.8%)

Turnout: 32.38 Votes.

http://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Results/ResultByElection/PointDouglas

Given that the alternative is the vapid airheaded Game of Thrones talk in the 2017 French Legislative Elections thread, gladly so. ;-)

What is the Nanaimo municipal council election for?  We're well more than half way through the 4 year mandate of councils, so I understand they don't have to hold a by-election.

City council. Cllr Wendy Pratt resigned in April in connection to some sort of scandal involving the city council.

We're more than a year away from the next municipal elections, so I fully support them having a by-election.

There are 13 candidates running.  Profiles: https://www.ournanaimo.com/index.php/candidate-bios/

Point Douglas - Votes by Voting Area:

http://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Results/ResultsByVA/131

CBC Story:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-point-douglas-byelection-map-1.4164541

Thanks!

Looks like the Filipino areas voted Liberal, while the Aboriginal areas voted NDP. No surprise, really.

Also, it looks like there is more of a correlation with the 2015 federal election result than the 2016 provincial election. The NDP's best areas were North Point Douglas and Lord Selkirk Park, just like in the federal election. Meanwhile, their best poll from 2016 went Liberal!

The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

With the NDP way down in Quebec, liberals may have a chance for a pickup.

Tough call at this point. It's very pro-sovereignty area of the province, but it is also a riding that is not that committed to voting for pro-sovereignty parties.

- The Liberals have not won it since 1980, but a lot of ridings in Quebec had the distinction before 2015. Provincially, they hold the western half of the riding (Roberval), but that's only because it's the Premier's seat.
- This isn't exactly a traditional Conservative seat. They did do well in 2006, which helped them pick the seat up in a by-election in 2007. Provincially though, the CAQ/ADQ has no history in this part of Quebec.
- This could've been an NDP target once upon a time. The 2015 redistribution added Alma to the district, which was swept by the NDP in 2011 (and again in 2015!).
- The eastern half of this riding has been represented by the PQ since 1976.

The NDP still came in second with 28% vs Label's 33%; even then with the Liberal victory in 2015 they were 4th; I would think that the CPC, BQ, and NDP will want this seat and all three could have a shot. 
Polling is all over the place, two polls out have the NDP at 11%, the other at 20%... so the party is best to just ignore the polls and go after the seat, I think with a leadership race on, all 5 candidates showing up to help campaign can build more media cover for the NDP. I think the CPC or BQ would have to be favourites, but the NDP can be in this race I think.

Of the 26 senior ministers in the final Stephen Harper cabinet, with Denis Lebel leaving, only 11 will still be in the House of Commons.

Four did not run in the last election, seven were defeated and now four have retired/will be retiring.

These are the ones left:
1.Ed Fast
2.Gerry Ritz
3.Tony Clement
4.Lisa Raitt
5.Kellie Leitch
6.Rob Nicholson
7.Pierre Polievre
8.Erin O'Toole
9.Peter Van Loan
10.Diane Finley
11.Steven Blaney


There are also at least three M.Ps who are still in the Commons who were not part of the final senior cabinet: Peter Kent, Michael Chong and Maxime Bernier.

Hébert: Couillard wants Lebel to run for him, status TBD.  (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/06/19/departure-of-former-conservative-minister-denis-lebel-sets-up-intriguing-quebec-byelection-hbert.html) By-election will be a 4-way race, presumably around the time Dippers choose a new leader.

The Liberals finished third in Lac-Saint-Jean in 2015.

Candidate	Party	Occupation	Votes	Votes (%)
LEBEL, Denis	C	parliamentarian	18,393	33.27%
DALLAIRE, Gisèle	N.D.P.	industrial psychologist	15,735	28.46%
SIMARD, Sabin	Lib	consultant	10,193	18.44%
GAUDREAULT, Sabin	B.Q.	retired	10,152	18.37%
REQUILÉ, Laurence	G.P.	florist	806	1.46%

Lebel would have a hard time winning for the PLQ in Lac-Saint-Jean, and he can't run in Roberval, as that's Couillard's seat. He'd be given a safe seat somewhere.

I did a post mortem analysis of the Point Douglas by-election, if anyone is interested: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/06/point-doulgas-by-election-post-mortem.html

Saskatoon-Fairview Sask Party MLA Jennifer Campeau is stepping down. Could be another NDP gain.

http://www.leaderpost.com/saskatoon+jennifer+campeau+steps+down/13463711/story.html

At this point, almost any urban by-election (ok, ANY seat) the NDP will target. With the NDP gaining strength province wide they are going to be all over this riding. Polling looks a little scattered:
http://thestarphoenix.com/news/saskatchewan/right-now-its-anybodys-ball-game-sask-party-popularity-fading-ndp-surging-polls-show

Angus Reid: SP 48%, NDP 40%
Mainstreet: NDP 49% SP 40%
But, both polls have the NDP leading in Saskatoon so, again, I think candidates will seal the seat for either the SP of NDP, but lean-NDP on this one (just based on provincial polling)
I'm sure Wall is overjoyed by this :P

Campeau won the seat by just 3 points last time, it is an easy NDP pick up.

Yeah, we'll probably see a landslide 20-30 point win for the NDP. It was one of the Sask Party's most vulnerable seats in the last general election, back when they were trouncing the NDP by 30 points.

Outremont: Mulcair might resign after his successor is elected. Easy Grit gain, needless to say. (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/06/26/parliaments-in-summer-mode-but-political-machinations-go-on-hbert.html)

While I don't doubt the Liberals would be heavily favoured, the NDP will really try to target the seat. Don't forget, even before Mulcair was elected it was the NDP's best riding in Quebec. I'd wait to see where the polls are when the time comes before making any brash predictions.

Toronto: Pam McConnell has died.

I think we're beyond the point where they will hold a by-election, they will just appoint someone.

If the number of people interested in running for the Liberals in the future Lac-Saint-Jean byelection is an indication, a pickup seems possible. Richard Hébert, the mayor of Dolbeau-Mistassini was contacted by the party a few months ago. He will consult the population during the summer. He is supported by business people from his town and elected officials from Alma area.

The mayor of Desbiens is interested to run. An ex-leader of Mashteuiatsh reserve is also thinking of running. The mayor of Roberval was interested but chose to run again for mayor, the municipal elections are in November.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/actualites/201706/28/01-5111677-deux-maires-du-lac-interesses-par-le-parti-liberal.php (http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/actualites/201706/28/01-5111677-deux-maires-du-lac-interesses-par-le-parti-liberal.php)

The mayor of Desbiens stated opportunities are in power, not in opposition, that running in a byelection is an advantage because people vote for the candidate that will be in power.

This could be what will happen, not sure if there is anger at the government in the area, for regional economic development it's good to be on the government side.

Denis Lebel probably got a big personal vote for the job he had done. He received double the vote of conservative candidates in the other two ridings in the region, Jonquière and Chicoutimi- Le Fjord (16-17%). The Liberals had 28% and 31% in those two.

The candidates are not known yet but the Liberals have a chance. They seem to be polling double of any other party. The NDP came a close second but polling below last election in the province. The Conservative and NDP will be lead by not well known leaders.       

Hmm, I wonder how much of that 2007 by-election win was a result of the Conservatives having just come to power? Could bode well for the Liberals, if the area does truly want to go for whoever is in the government.

Because I know you guys care very much, here are the results of the Nanaimo by-election

Sheryl Armstrong: 3,611 (48.9%)
Sacia Burton: 858 (11.6%)
All others: 2,921 (39.5%)

Turnout: 11.0%

Armstrong is a former RCMP officer.

Geoff Meggs, VV councillor in Vancouver was appointed as Horgan's Chief of Staff on Tuesday. There will be a by-election in October. Because there are no wards, it will be a city-wide race, so it might be seen as a referendum on the current administration.

If Ralph Goodale was nominated as the next Lieutenant Governor of Saskatchewan, which party would win the by-election? Would the Liberals lose their only seat in the province or would they manage to hold on? A lot of provincial NDP voters in the riding would probably revert back to voting for the federal party once Goodale is gone.

Is there speculation of this?

Back before Trudeau, I think the conventional wisdom was that it would become an NDP seat, but I think right now the Liberals would probably win it.

Mainstreet research poll of Saskatchewan in mid-May had a federal question. In Regina the Liberal party has a 12 point lead

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/sk-party-fades-as-ndp-takes-9-point-lead/ (http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/sk-party-fades-as-ndp-takes-9-point-lead/)

Since then Andrew Scheer became Conservative leader. There could be some local boost effect. Also it's regional number from one poll.

By-Election of Note:

Ritchot (RM South of Winnipeg) By-Election was held tonight. The by-elections were held after Mayor Jackie Hunt and two councillors, Jeannot Robert and Ron Mamchuk, resigned. This after allegations two other councillors, Ernie Dumaine and Corrine Webb, verbally attacked the mayor at a meeting over an outdoor hockey rink. All 5 members ran to reclaim their seat:

Results:
Mayor: Chris Ewen, turnout 39%
Ward 1: Shane Pelletier, turnout 49%
Ward 2: Ron Mamchuk (re-elected), turnout 51%
Ward 3: Jeannot Robert (acclaimed)
Ward 4: Janine Boulanger, turnout 31%

http://www.ritchot.com/main.aspx?CategoryCode=BE0B3259-5572-4DEA-9D08-6072C1F49D90&pageCode=BB92AA54-78AB-4621-B245-727A03D7237F

The municipality has a fairly large Francophone population, but interestingly none of the wards appear to have a Francophone majority.

Also interestingly, Ewen only won one ward and didn't even with the advance vote! But his margins were so high is Ward 1, that he was able to win the election.  Jackie Hunt the incumbent mayor won 2 wards (2 & 3) which appear to be more Francophone than most of the RM, while 3rd place candidate Gene Whitney won ward 4.

Also interestingly for rural Manitoba, the RM voted for the Liberals back in 2015, but provincially went PC last year.

For the Saskatoon-Fairview, the NDP have nominated 2016 candidate and Executive Assistant to the Dean of Aboriginal Affairs at the University of Saskatchewan Vicki Mowat

http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/mowat-to-represent-ndp-in-saskatoon-fairview-by-election-1.3517540

The SaskParty have nominated School Board Trustee, former correction officer Cameron Scott

http://thestarphoenix.com/news/local-news/saskatoon-fairview-follow

In addition to resigning as BC Liberal leader, Christy Clark will also be resigning her seat.

The likelyhood of the NDP winning Kelwona West is what?... From what I can see, they have never won this riding in any configuration. Greens? would this be a riding the NDP could/should sacrifice for their little buddies?

The last federal result suggests that Kelowna at large might be moving "leftward"...which in this case, means centreward, i.e. if the BC Libs continue to be seen as a viable "grand coalition" entity, they've nothing to fear.  (Especially considering how Justin didn't exactly shun his party's provincial namesake.)

Trudeau and Scheer visited Saguenay and Lac Saint-Jean region, a pre-campaign for the Lac-Saint-Jean byelection.

An editorial from a regional newspaper talks of the Trudeau effect for the byelection
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/opinions/editoriaux/201707/26/01-5119676-leffet-trudeau-et-la-partielle.php (http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/opinions/editoriaux/201707/26/01-5119676-leffet-trudeau-et-la-partielle.php)

The Liberal candidate will start ahead not only for the lure of power or the government policies but mostly because of Trudeau's popularity. There were big crowds and Trudeau took a lot of time shaking hands and taking selfies. He gives the impression of being accessicle and listening to people. He met local leaders from business, union, social housing, mayors.

Local news coverage seems very positive. In addition to the excitement of the rock star visit, Alma mayor said trudeau is doing exceptional work and has a magnetic personality. Trudeau gave his word to farmers he will defend them and he would find a solution to a local problem of cell phone coverage. 

The Conservatives tried "Just-in over his head" in 2015, from what I've seen so far, the Liberals should use 'Scheer Stupidity.'

Glen Murray (Lib-Toronto) is resigning his cabinet post (Ontario Environment) and we resign his seat.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/cabinet-shuffle-murray-wynne-1.4228747

Star says seat will remain vacant till the election.

Why do you always make these wild proclamations? Your first prediction for the Soo by-election was that it would be a Liberal-NDP race for pete's sake.

Toronto Centre used to vote for the Tories, and with Kathleen Wynne being so unpopular, in a by-election scenario I could see a lot of the voters switching to them, and if the NDP targets, we could see a 3 way race. There have been two by-elections in recent history, in 2010 the NDP won 33% (provincial) and in 2013 the NDP won 36% (federal).

If there is no by-election, then the new Toronto Centre riding will be a pure toss up. The redistributed federal results from 2011 had the Liberals win the riding by just three points. Safe seat indeed! ::)  

That would imply that if Jagmeet Singh wins the federal NDP leadership and resigns his Ontario seat sometime in the Fall - there would also not be any byelection in Bramalea-Gore-Malton before the June 2018 general election.

The new boundaries for Toronto Centre that lop off Rosedale, coupled with Glen Murray quitting, coupled with the extreme unpopularity of Kathleen Wynne could actually make the riding a top target for the Ontario NDP.

Does anyone have the polling subdivision maps used in the Quebec provincial by-elections in Chauveau (2015-06-08) and St-Henri--Ste-Anne (2015-11-09)?

Many thanks.

Mea culpa, Hatman. Didn't know about redistribution. In related news, Tories polling at 50% (!!!) in 416?

No worries; I can be cranky in the morning.

Speaking of the new Toronto Centre riding, I don't think the Tories can win it without Rosedale, so it will be a two-way fight.

Or, if the Tories are headed for a clear majority and Horwath continues to have a "Toronto problem", a two-way fight for *second*.

After 15 years in power by 2018, I think we can play this for the Ontario Liberals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKO_JRbcC04

Roy Orbison "It's Over"

I don't know what to make of Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown, but he's a huge fan of socialist musician Billy Bragg, so he can't be all bad.

Former Westside-Kelowna MLA Ben Stewart running for Christy Clarks seat (stepped aside for her in 2013)

https://www.google.ca/amp/globalnews.ca/news/3640702/now-that-christys-gone-ben-stewart-wants-his-seat-back/amp/ (https://www.google.ca/amp/globalnews.ca/news/3640702/now-that-christys-gone-ben-stewart-wants-his-seat-back/amp/)

Vancouver city council and School Board by-election set for October 14th. All 9 seats are up as the previous BC Liberal government dismissed all 9 trustees last year.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-school-board-byelection-1.4234442 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-school-board-byelection-1.4234442)

Vacant Van City council seat opinion poll from a few days ago by Justason Market Intelligence:

Sample size: n = 400 with decided vote at n = 209;

Methodology: Opt-in online panel;

Poll voting options: Green, NPA, Vision Vancouver and One City; (should have included COPE as well IMHO);

IMHO, most eyebrow-raising factoid arising from the JMI opinion poll was that incumbent Vision Vancouver is in 4th place:

()

http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=5357

Swift Current, SK: Wall is retiring from politics. (https://twitter.com/PremierBradWall/status/895676119940071425)

Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.

Was a very marginal Saskatchewan Party seat and usually by-elections don't tend to favour the government, especially considering Wall's approval rating is a lot lower than a year ago so my guess if the NDP will take this.  It will though be interesting what impact the Saskatchewan Party leadership race has.  I believe they will get a bounce in the polls when they choose a new leader, but since the next election isn't until November 2020 doubt they will hold that bounce.  Still too far out to predict who will win then, but even if the Saskatchewan Party does win, it won't be as big a blowout as the last two provincial elections were and even if the NDP wins it will probably be more like the 1999 and 2003 elections as opposed to the 1991 landslide.  It seems rural Saskatchewan is now more or less a lock for parties on the right unlike in the past.

Some polling has showed the NDP tying the Sask party in "rest of Saskatchewan", which includes smaller cities like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert and the north, but some rural areas (mainly some small towns, doubt ranchers would ever vote NDP en masse) could voting for the NDP again.

True the cancellation of STC was very unpopular there, although it's been almost 20 years at either the provincial or federal level since the right wasn't running up the margins in rural Saskatchewan thus my skepticism but if the Saskatchewan Party becomes very unpopular in 2020 you could get a scenario like in both Alberta and Manitoba's recent provincial elections where you saw the NDP in Alberta and PCs in Manitoba winning in many ridings they normally would never win although to be fair I suspect they will lose a lot of those next time around even if they win the election (In Alberta that is seeming not too likely but in Manitoba the PCs still have a decent chance at winning but probably not as big a blowout as in 2016).

Another Saskatchewan MLA is retiring, as of 9/1, Kindersley MLA Bill Boyd
He's been around since 91 as a PC MLA, served as party leader till joining the SP in 97.

http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/mobile/kindersley-mla-bill-boyd-to-retire-1.3547214

A right-wing party has held this riding since 78, the Liberals held it from 75-78. The best the NDP managed since then was 34% in 78. In 2016, this was a battle between Boyd the SP MLA and a former SP MLA, the NDp only managed about 7%. 

Lac-Saint-Jean: LeBel's resignation took effect last week. (http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/justin-trudeau-draws-big-crowds-on-saguenay-lac-saint-jean-visit) Desbiens Mayor Nicolas Martel isn't running. (http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/actualites/201708/18/01-5125561-nicolas-martel-ne-briguera-pas-linvestiture-du-parti-liberal-du-canada.php) Nor is Gilbert Dominique. (http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/actualites/201708/16/01-5125025-pas-de-politique-federale-pour-gilbert-dominique.php)

Nor is the Bloc candidate of 2015.

Lac-Saint-Jean will be called soon, Grits eager for a flip. I'd expect they will, we only held it because of LeBel in 2015. (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-laying-groundwork-for-upset-in-looming-lac-saint-jean-by-election/article36051535/?cmpid=rss1)

I agree the Tories are unlikely to hold this, but the Grits might have a tougher time than many think.  I believe this area voted 67% yes in the 95 referendum so I think the BQ could possibly win here, mind you with the BQ, NDP, and Conservatives all seeming to be irrelevant in Quebec the Liberals just might take it.  In fact if Quebec becomes to Justin Trudeau like it was for his father this could make it very difficult to unseat the Liberals even if the Tories and NDP gain in English Canada.

Is it an upset win when you are favoured to win? The opposition parties will not be lead by powerful leaders. I imagine people are not angry at the government and want to vote against it. The Bloc has a low profile, probably doesn't have money, they can,t bring jobs or help realise local projects. Besides the Liberals no other party seems to have a name as potential candidate, unless they are hiding a major star candidate. It looks like mayors of Alma, Dolbeau and Roberval will be behind the Liberal party.

Richard Hébert, mayor of Dolbeau-Mistassini announced he was seeking the Liberal nomination earlier this month. He wants to help the development of his town and region. He wants to find solutions for the forestry industry and its future. He said he was approached by some political and socio-economic players to run. 

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1049258/le-maire-de-dolbeau-mistassini-se-lance-en-politique-federale

It seemed later all the other potential candidates declined to run after that but there is another person seeking the nomination.

Marjolaine Etienne, Innu, former vice-chief of Mashteuiatsh reserve.
http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1051149/marjolaine-etienne-brigue-linvestiture-liberale-dans-lac-saint-jean?fromBeta=true (http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1051149/marjolaine-etienne-brigue-linvestiture-liberale-dans-lac-saint-jean?fromBeta=true)

I agree. Recent polling in Quebec is somewhat inconsistent but generally would not suggest a Liberal pick-up in an opposition-held seat in Quebec at the moment. I think the Tories are much more likely to retain than the Bloc to threaten, given the Bloc's perennial dysfunction these days, but who knows.

The best poll for the Liberals by far is Abacus's July poll, the Quebec subsample of which had Lib 53, Con 14, NDP 14, BQ 14, which would put the NDP way down from 2015 and the Liberals way up but the Cons and BQ only down slightly. The Liberals would narrowly take the seat on a uniform swing with that result, but only narrowly, and those figures suggest the Liberals are gaining more where the NDP were strong in 2015 than in Conservative-held seats with a strong Bloc history like Lac-Saint-Jean.

Campaign Research's July poll's Quebec subsample had Lib 42, Con 15, NDP 23, BQ 17, which would not be good enough for the Liberals to take the seat on a uniform swing, though they'd be in shouting distance.

Angus Reid's June poll's Quebec subsample had Lib 38, Con 18, NDP 20 (no BQ result reported), which is barely any net swing to the Liberals relative to the Conservatives and leaves the Liberals in third on a uniform swing.

And finally EKOS's June poll's Quebec subsample had Lib 33, Con 20, NDP 16, BQ 16, even worse for the Liberals, actually a swing to the Conservatives and definitely not good enough to win.

Certainly not ruling out a Liberal pick-up but does not seem to be strongly indicated by polling at the moment.

Judy Foote resigning by end of year.

I think it's safe to say the Liberals will hold on to this one. I think it was their best seat in 2015.

Fully agree here.  It will though be interesting to see what the shifts are as the Tories and NDP were more or less rock bottom so cannot see them doing any worse so while the Liberals will easily hold this, it may give a sense at what type of shifts have happened since.  I know the Newfoundland provincial Liberal government is quite unpopular although unlike Trudeau they've adopted austerity so not sure how much of an impact that will have.

Foote won 81% of the vote... ya i'd say that's a strong mandate

Lac-Saint-Jean: Grits confident of a pickup.  (http://www.hilltimes.com/2017/08/28/lac-saint-jean-que-nearly-four-decades-local-liberals-now-100-per-cent-sure-party-will-win-byelection/117115)

I think the Liberals have an edge, but the sort of arrogance we are certain to win or Trudeau is loved is the type that long-term runs parties into trouble.  Otherwise never take anything for granted although do agree the Liberals have the advantage.  While Trudeau has a positive approval rating in Quebec and nationally it is not through the roof, I think the Liberal advantage in Quebec is more due to the weakness of the other parties.  Asides from 2011 NDP has not traditionally been strong in Quebec, BQ is in decline despite this historically being one of their strongest ridings, and the Conservatives are largely confined to the Quebec City region.  Provincially the ADQ and CAQ never did very well in the Saguenay

Yes but no other federalist party has been durable here long-term since Macdonald. Frankly I don't mind a return to our Fort status.

Battlefords-Lloydminister: Ritz is expected to announce his resignation soon. (http://ipolitics.ca/2017/08/30/scheer-names-poilievre-finance-critic-leaves-leitch-out-of-shadow-cabinet/)

That is generally a pretty safe Conservative riding so would be shocked if they lost it, nonetheless with Wall's popularity having fallen, it might be a bit tighter.

Battlefords-Lloydminister Has been held by a Right wing party since the ridings creation in 1997 (Reform/Alliance/Conseravtive), before that though the Battlefords-Meadow Lake riding which was carved up to create Battlefords-Lloydminister was NDP held.
The NDP still is the main opponent, 2nd placer here but hasn't broken 30% ever'... so ya pretty solid CPC.

Louis-Hebert provincial by-election called for October 2 (http://globalnews.ca/news/3707460/byelection-to-be-held-in-quebec-city-riding-of-louis-hebert-on-oct-2/?utm_source=%40Global_Montreal&utm_medium=Twitter).

That part of the province is probably very competitive provincially, but the federal NDP is struggling to gain traction here. Half of the Sask NDP provincial supporters here are breaking for the Liberals federally, according to Mainstreet.

Only the Battlefords are competitive for the NDP provincially.  Lloydminster and the rural portions are solidly Saskatchewan Party.  I believe there are around 4-5 provincial ridings per federal and the others are not competitive.  Even in the 1999 and 2003 provincial elections which the NDP won, this riding would have still gone solidly Saskatchewan Party.

Apparently the NPDQ will be contesting it! Will be interesting to see how well they do. For comparison, the federal NDP got about ~10% in 2008, ~40% in 2011 and ~20% in 2015.

Ritz announced his resignation today. Obhrai's on retirement watch too.

The NDP is running competitively with the Sask Party in rural Saskatchewan according to polling. There are tons of small towns in that area the Sask NDP could win. Lloydminster is a stretch, but I wouldn't see be surprised to see a tight race provincially in the federal boundaries.

They will be running former MP Denis Blanchette, who is the current president of the NPDQ.

That was according to one poll so while possible I am a bit skeptical of rural Saskatchewan swinging heavily to the NDP.  It seems since the late 90s they have more or less abandoned them.  The Angus-reid poll shows it's mainly Regina and Saskatoon that make the NDP competitive and perhaps some support in smaller cities like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert

I could easily see the Sask NDP win the provincial riding of The Battlefords - which they held up to 2011...and maybe a couple of rural ridings in the north that have large FN reserves such as Meadow Lake or Batoche or Saskatchewan Rivers....but not the rural parts of this federal riding

Former MLA Ben Stewart will be the BC Liberal candidate in Kelowana West By-Election.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-liberals-pick-former-mla-ben-stewart-for-kelowna-west-byelection-1.4273626 (http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-liberals-pick-former-mla-ben-stewart-for-kelowna-west-byelection-1.4273626)

Interesting.  I would have thought they should have waited until the next leader is chosen in case the next leader is not from caucus.  Still considering the BC Liberals won this by over 30 points, I suspect they will have little difficulty holding it.  Even if the Greens don't put up a candidate, the BC Liberals pretty much always get over 50% here.

Weird how we haven't gotten a single Saskatoon Fairview poll, when we got 2 Saskatoon Meewasin by-election polls.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201708/08/01-5123011-partielle-dans-louis-hebert-un-premier-test-pour-le-npd-quebec.php

That's fairly high profile for the almost-nothing party eh, but since QS and I believe the Greens are also running candidates, that's really a crowded left, left-of-centre field now. Also, sounds like both QS and NPDQ are going to use orange... i guess if PQ/CAQ can both use blues, it can be done but talk about confusion.

Probably because Meewasin was considered very competitive and Meili was considered a likely NDP leadership candidate. in contrast the conventional wisdom about Fairview is that it will be a slam dunk pickup for the NDP.

Ya, no kidding eh. I think because in Meewasin, you had a very high profile NDP candidate in Meili running, might have been a factor in the amount of polling. Fairview was much closer then Meewasin in 2016; a 182 vote (48% vs 45%) difference vs 523 (50% vs 42%)... it could be seen as already in the NDP bag, which is not the best for anyone.

Louis Hébert: Grit was accused of psychologically harassing 2 women at his business. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201709/05/01-5130650-un-candidat-liberal-denonce-pour-harcelement-psychologique.php)

Most by-elections in my province since the early 80s. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201709/04/01-5130101-record-delections-partielles-au-quebec.php)

L-H: Grits also replacing their candidate. When was the last time something like this happened? (https://twitter.com/SebBovetSRC/status/905572114698260480)

My profile of today's by-election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/09/saskatoon-fairview-by-election-preview.html

I would be quite shocked if the NDP doesn't pick this up.  I think margins will be more the interesting one.  Is it similar to 2007 which is good news for the Saskatchewan Party or is more like 1999 and 2003 which is good news for the NDP.  Off course with both parties choosing a new leader a lot can happen between now and the next election so the close poll numbers could easily swing to one side or another.  Nonetheless with Saskatchewan Party's strong rural base I suspect at worst would be a strong opposition in 2020 while even if the NDP loses, I am pretty sure they will pick up a whole bunch of seats.  Otherwise I suspect the 2003 and 2007 results are the best to use for predicting what could happen.  2011 and 2016 were massive blowouts that don't happen too long just as 1991 was a massive blowout for the NDP which they were unable to maintain beyond that.

Yes, the NDP will win it.  The question is, by how much? My guess is 53-42.

My guess is 55-35. If the Sask NDP is pulling over 40% of the vote province-wide, they definitely have to put up large margins in seats like this.

Looks like my initial conservative estimate was too conservative. NDP leading 65-25 with 11/50 reporting.

If those numbers hold up, then big night for the NDP and obviously a message to the Saskatchewan Party that some are unhappy.  The NDP will definitely win this, but lets see what the final numbers are.

One thing I neglected to mention in my blog post was how good the SP and the Tories are in the advance vote. I think the NDP actually won the election day vote in 2016.

Then the predictions others made might close as my understanding is advanced votes usually come last since they take the longest to count.  Noticed that with other parties on the right, any idea why that is?  Interestingly in BC at least absentee ballots tend to favour the NDP.

With 25 out of 55 reporting and it now being 64.3% NDP to 26.6% Saskatchewan Party this won't even be close, even if the final polls are a bit closer.  Big NDP win it looks like.

CBC says there are 1888 advance ballots to count.

A lot of the people from out of the province commenting don't understand quite HOW unpopular the Sask Party is right now. I think this by-election should be a sign that the Sask NDP could legitimately contest the Kindersley by-election, especially with Bill Boyd's legal dramas.

Advance voting depends on the constituency, the one where I volunteered for, our NDP candidate won by the advance votes by a slim margin, but some other candidate's election day victories were overturned by the advance votes.

I know the Saskatchewan Party did take a hit over the last budget, but Wall's approval ratings in the polls I've seen is still around 45% which is a lot lower than it has traditionally been, but compared to other premiers still quite high although somewhat lower than Trudeau's.  I guess Kindersley is possible, but I tend to think the ridings they won in 2003 is probably the one's most likely to flip.

Brad Wall's popularity has always been a bit higher than the party's approval though. He's lifted up the party's popularity by making it the Brad Wall Party, but now his reputation is being tarnished.

CBC has now called it for the NDP.

I may be from Ontario, but I do not think Kindersley will even be close. The NDP finished third in 2016.

Just five polls left, probably the advanced and the two mobile.  Looks like a very good night for the NDP.  Outperformed 2007 and Sask Party so far did slightly worse although maybe will match depending on advanced polls.  NDP also outperformed 2003, but it looks like the Sask Party did as well.  Interestingly enough in 1982, this riding went massively PC, but then swung massively to the NDP with similar numbers in 1986 which the PCs still won.  Granted that was a long time ago so one needs to be careful making comparisons.  But things are looking good for the NDP, while the Saskatchewan Party definitely has their issues although they at least have 3 years to try to turn things around so they do have the luxury of time, but off course things could go either way.

Saskatchewan Green Party 45 1.4%
Vicki Mowat New Democratic Party (N.D.P.) 1887 60.6%
David Prokopchuk P. C. Party of Sask. 93 3.0%
Shah Rukh Saskatchewan Liberal Party 124 4.0%
Cameron Scott Saskatchewan Party 957 30.8%
Rejected Ballots - 6 0.2%

To an independent who was rallying himself as the anti-Sask Party candidate. Granted he was a right-winger, but quite a few NDP votes went to him hoping he might be able to take down Bill Boyd.

Final numbers

Taylor Bolin Saskatchewan Green Party 61 1.3%
Vicki Mowat New Democratic Party (N.D.P.) 2759 60.3%
David Prokopchuk P. C. Party of Sask. 123 2.7%
Shah Rukh Saskatchewan Liberal Party 199 4.4%
Cameron Scott Saskatchewan Party 1423 31.1%
Rejected Ballots - 7 0.2%

So definitely a good night for the NDP and while a lost was expected for the Saskatchewan Party the size of the loss has to be worrisome.  It doesn't mean they will lose the next election, that is three years away, but it means they have their work cut out for them.

Actual percentages (for some reason Elections SK calculates %s as a pct of total votes cast rather than just valid votes)

NDP: 60.4% (+15.2)
SP: 31.2% (-17.1)
Lib: 4.4% (-0.7)
PC: 2.7%
Grn: 1.3% (-0.1)

Turnout: 35.7% (-14.4%)

Swing: 16.1% (NDP gain from SP) - bigger swing than in Meewasin! Also, this swing if applied province wide would result in a tie in the popular vote.

. Meewasin was also before the austerity budget so I suspect the SP declined further after that.

Both NDP candidates have managed to win over the suburban parts of their constituencies, with Vicki Mowat winning all but one poll in Fairview. Polls made it seem like the Saskatoon suburbs were still solidly supporting the Sask Party, but by-elections have indicated a different trend.

It'll be interesting to see how the NDP does in the even wealthier suburban areas of the city, like Stonebridge or Willowgrove, where the Sask Party won most polls with over 60%-70% of the vote. They might be an even tougher nut to crack than the rural areas, seeing as they are least affected by the austerity budget. The suburbanites living in those areas aren't the ones riding the STC or living on social assistance, that's for sure.

Regina's only comparable suburb is in Regina Wascana Plains, a mixed constituency that has Regina's southeastern portions along with some smaller, wealthy towns further east of the city. I do wish there was a by-election in Regina, because the NDP is doing ridiculously well in the city, where I wouldn't be surprised to see the NDP hit 65% or even 70% in some currently Sask-Party held seats. Saskatoon's swings have been dramatic, but polls have indicated the NDP winning by landslide margins in Regina, even more than in Saskatoon.

Overall, the Sask NDP's shot at forming government relies on winning a few rural seats, outside of the larger and medium sized cities. Some rural seats like Batoche and Saskatchewan Rivers, which have large reserve populations, are ripe for picking, and they'll be the ones deciding who forms government in 2020. To do that, they need to win some small towns, because ranchers and farmers are likely never going to vote for the NDP en masse, so they need to win over the economically downtrodden Saskatchewanians living in the province's smaller population centres if they want to win in those rural seats. Kindersley will be an interesting test to see if they can win in small towns. They don't have to win the by-election, it'd be a miracle if they actually did, but they have to prove they can do well in some small towns, if they want to form government in 2020.

Yup, that's a swing.

Indeed, the popularity of Brad Wall masked the clearly very large urban (and north)/rural divide in Saskatchewan.

In the 2016 election, the NDP did better than in 2011 in the urban ridings but did even worse in the rural ridings.  In the northern rural ridings where the NDP was relatively strong in 2011, in most of them in 2016 they did no better than they did in the rural ridings in the rest of the province.

Again, these are the northern rural ridings, as opposed to the two ridings in Northern Saskatchewan where the NDP dominates.

I don't understand that argument. Seats with a high native population seem less swingable than more white seats to me. It's like arguing that Mississippi could be a Democratic pickup. Sure the NDP have a high floor, but the non-reserve polls are voting 70-80% Saskatchewan Party.

Really Good Night for the NDP, I thought maybe mid-50's; 55% or so, but 60%! that's closer to the 95' vote in the old riding (the NDP won 64% then)
IF there is a similar swing province-wide, 16% or so, which the last provincewide poll showed is within the realm of possibilities. Those previous 60-70% SP polls are now more like 40-50%, which would be outweighed by an even stronger (likely) vote in already NDP held polls. So Sask Rivers, Meadow Lake, Batoche, like what was previously mentioned 2003 type ridings. Puts Saskatoon suburban ridings like Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods definitely in the NDP column, but also Northwest and Silverspring-Sutherland become much more winnable.

Kindersley... still a huge long shot. Even if we see another 16% swing, AND all the 17% who voted for the Indie vote for the NDP, if my rough math is right, that is still SP 51% NDP 40%.  Not sure what voter turn out was, but a huge number of non-voters would have to come out to vote NDP and we'd have to have a bigger swing to the NDP for them to win. Its not impossible, but it's unlikely.
Momentum is with the NDP, they'd be foolish not to capitalize and try and attract a "star" (as best they can) for Kindersley. If there is huge discontent/backlash in Rural Sask maybe we could see this flip... stranger things have happened.

The northern rural ridings have a history of supporting the NDP. It's like whites in the Midwest vs the South, white rural people in southern Saskatchewan are more conservative, which is why all of the only few ridings that have never voted for the NDP are all in southern Saskatchewan.

Meanwhile the Sask NDP was winning a good chunk of northern Saskatchewan's rural white voters back in 2007. They' definitely swung to the Sask Party in 2011 and 2016, but if the Sask NDP starts making gains with rural voters, it's definitely be most pronounced amongst  y ones that have historically supported them, the ones concentrated in the northern part of the province.

Not too long ago, there were quite a few NDP supporting towns. It's not implausible for it to happen again, especially in Saskatchewan. The Sask NDP is being led by a 29 year old woman first elected to office last year, and they still won the by-election dramatically with a huge swing against Brad Wall. It won't be pretty once the tables are turned in a few months, with a more popular NDP leader and an unpopular and unknown Sask Party leader.

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:

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No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

Was this a uniform swing? what numbers did you use?
Looking a lot more like 2003 though, your seeing the smaller cities start to swing NDP (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw. I was right in that Saskaton, Westview, Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods go NDP. For the NDP to win low-hanging rural ridings, the swing is going to have to be closer to 20% then eh.

Yes, uniform swing.

Interestingly, the lowest hanging fruit rural riding for the NDP is Batoche, which hasn't gone NDP since 1995. It appears to have a high FN population, and less resource dependent as ridings in the NW like Meadow Lake which saw a huge swing to the SP in 2016.

Saskatoon showed pretty mild swings compared to Regina and rest of Saskatchewan in polling, so that's one thing to take into account. Saskatoon's swing to the NDP has been the smallest, compared to Regina and the rest of Saskatchewan. If a by-election happened in say, Regina Coronation Park, then we'd probably have seen some crazy 20+ point swings, that would indicate the NDP winning the popular vote province-wide.

The Sask Party is likely going to have an even tougher time in the years ahead, without Brad Wall. It's hard to understate exactly how important Brad Wall has been to the Sask Party brand. He's been the face of the party for a generation now, and the people running to replace him are all unknowns.

Well this is all very pleasant :)

As for the issue of swings, don't forget that if there is a large swing then they tend to be highest where there is most room to swing. Decent chance that even if Regina swings more than Saskatoon that Regina swings by less than the rural parts of the province.

Another interesting one, going by the colour variants, is Last Mountain-Touchwood, north of Regina. Looks surprisingly competitive.

That's more to do with the fact that the PC leader (and former MLA) ran there in 2016 and won 10% of the vote. Unless he runs again, you can just add that 10% to the SP, making the riding uncompetative.

Well, touchwood on that happening.  I hope you are right, but I think you are experiencing irrational exuberance. 

How about Swift Current?  After all, it's been held by the NDP before (most recently during the 1991-99 Romanow majority years).  And even if they don't win, in Brad Wall's absence the NDP's almost certain to have one of its highest swings here, if not *the* highest swing...

It's like much of rural Southern Saskatchewan trended heavily Saskatchewan Party although agree without Brad Wall will be much closer.  I believe the Tories federally though got over 60% there so a lot will depend on whether the party plunges further or rebounds.

Swift Current is an interesting one because it is an entirely urban constituency. I've lived there before and it's not exactly the most well off place in the province, and a lot of people automatically just voted for Brad Wall because he was the premier and it was his hometown, the place where he'd lived his entire life. The highest swings will probably happen in Regina though, since they're going from losing the city by a few points to winning 2 to 1.

Even comparing 2015 to 2004, the Tories are up 5-10% in Swift Current.  It's definitely harder for the NDP to do well there than in 1995.

In this case especially, highest swing does not necessarily mean winning swing.  And it also depends on the respective candidates on offer.

As far as federal-result comparisons go, remember that a Con-ward "push effect" is in place for Cypress Hills-Grasslands that wouldn't be so marked for a provincial-style Swift Current standalone.

RIP: Scarborough-Agincourt Grit MP Arnold Chan has died of cancer at 50. (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/liberal-mp-arnold-chan-dies-1.3589387)

Extremely sad. RIP.

Scarborough Agincourt could be a competitive by-election, it was somewhat close for a GTA seat, and the huge Chinese community could turn against the Liberal party because of tax changes and marijuana legalization.

Hmm, we did see a 6 point swing in the Markham-Thornhill by-election, and it is only about 1/3 Chinese. Agincourt is nearly half Chinese, and the same swing would put the Tories within 3 points of the Liberals there.

Polls in Ontario more or less match the 2015 result, so it will be a question of how motivated the Tory and Liberal voters are, and how much Toronto-area Chinese people have trended CPC. Turnout spiked last election, and those voters likely favoured Trudeau. I'm not so sure those folks will show up for a by-election.

All things considered, there's still a sizeable lead for the Tories to overcome, and the polls haven't moved much from 2015. I say the Liberals narrowly hold on to the seat.

Polls will not pick up on swings among ethnic communities, though. They don't respond to polls as much as the general public, and even if they did, you wouldn't see a big shift in province-wide polling.

I imagine legalization is really going to hurt the Liberals in this riding. There's probably no stronger anti-drug demographic in Canada.

Sure. I just meant there will likely be little to no swing in the white vote to help put the Tories over the top.

Also, I just noticed that about 15% of the riding is South Asian. Have they trended any further away form the Tories since 2015? If so that might provide some headwinds for them.

If Singh wins the NDP leadership race, they'll probably swing hard to the NDP. My assumption would be that they voted Liberal in 2015, so the Liberals could really be in hot water in this by-election.

Lac-Saint-Jean and Sturgeon River-Parkland set for Oct. 23. (https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/federal-by-elections-set-for-conservative-held-ridings-in-quebec-and-alberta/article36287033/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe)

Sturgeon River-Parkland should be an easy Conservative hold.  Lac Saint Jean will be the more interesting.  With the Liberals well ahead in Quebec and a strong candidate they have an excellent chance at picking it up, mind you this is probably one of the least Liberal friendly ridings in Quebec.  I believe in 1995, this riding voted 2/3 Yes.  NDP and BQ could theoretically be competitive, but they both seem in fairly bad shape in Quebec and for the Tories this was more a Lebel riding than Conservative one as in the last election they did quite poorly in all the neighbouring ridings.  Their support is more in around Quebec City where they still might be competitive, but it seems any riding more than 100km outside Quebec City is probably off limits for them which would include Lac Saint Jean.

Of the ones not called, Battlefords-Lloydminster should be an easy Tory hold while Bonavista-Trinity-Burin easy Liberal hold.  Scarborough-Agincourt leans Liberals and if they still where they are in the polls they are fine, but if things tighten then there is an outside chance the Tories could pull off an upset.  In 2011 it stayed Liberal more due to Jim Karygiannis and had he not run I think the Tories would have won it, although lost it in 2015.  Likewise provincially I could definitely see Scarborough-Agincourt going PC if the current numbers hold.

Singh says he's open to Scarborough advice, but prefers Brampton/Mississauga or Windsor for a seat. (http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/jagmeet-singh-on-taking-on-trudeau-winning-over-quebec-and-being-sufficiently-electable)

It would be funny (and excellent) if Pierre Nantel left federal politics to run for the PQ provincially and then Jagmeet Singh ran and won in Nantel's riding. :)

Running in Agincourt would be a bad idea; wrong part of Scarborough for him to win in.  Do you think one of the Windsor MPs will step down for him? I'm worried that might not go over so well.

Any chance one of those might decide to run provincially as I am thinking of one of the eight Ontario MPs steps down to go provincial that could create an opening.  Of the upcoming by-elections, none of them are exactly seats the NDP is likely to win.

Being an MP is a lot more prestigious than being an MPP, so it's pretty unlikely. If somebody stepped aside for Jagmeet, it'd probably be an older member who has served a few terms already.

I doubt it. Brian Masse is under fifty and Cheryl Hardcastle  is a first termer.

Actually, this goes to show how narrow the NDP's options are for giving a leader a seat. If we filter down to seats where the NDP MP is in their 3rd term or later and won by at least 10% ( a decent proxy for leader byelection material) we get:

Outremont
Windsor West
Edmonton-Strathcona
Skeena—Bulkley Valley

Not exactly a great list. Edmonton-Strathcona would be the best bet IMO.

Outremont was more a Mulcair seat than NDP so I actually think there is a real risk it would flip to the Liberals.  Edmonton-Strathcona looks safe, but not sure what impact the current provincial NDP government would have although it seems Notley is doing fine in Edmonton just unpopular elsewhere.  Skeena-Bulkley Valley is more a Nathan Cullen although with its large aboriginal population and being fairly rural doesn't seem like one either the Tories or Liberals would snatch.  The real danger there is it would have to be done in the next year while the provincial NDP government is still reasonably popular since if the BC NDP tanks in the polls (not saying they will, but cannot be ruled out) that could have a negative spillover federally.

That being said if there is a strong bounce in the polls after Singh winning I could easily see some NDP MP willing to give up a relatively safe seat in the interest of the party and then in 2019 try and make a comeback when Singh runs in Brampton East.  In many ways not too dissimilar to Scott Brison giving up Kings-Hants for Joe Clark, but then returning in 2000.

You forgot Hamilton Centre whgere Dave Christopherson is quite old and has been there since 2004...and he won pretty easily in 2015

Yes, you're right. My mistake.

South Surrey-White Rock: Watts quitting to run for the provincial Grit leadership.  (https://globalnews.ca/news/3759980/dianne-watts-bc-liberal-leadership/)

Beat me too it.  As a popular mayor of Surrey she definitely is one to watch and although no guarantee she will win the BC Liberal leadership let alone the next provincial election, she is definitely one to watch.  Probably rightly figured the odds of the BC Liberals winning the next election are better than the federal Tories (note she likely would get a cabinet position if they won and she was MP).

In terms of odds, this is normally a fairly safe conservative riding, but the Liberals almost won it last time and considering how they did in neighbouring ridings I suspect the Liberals would have won it if she weren't the candidate.  Likewise since Liberal support has held up in BC and Tory support hasn't rebounded, I think there is a very real possibility of a Liberal pick up.  The only thing the Tories really have in their favour is by-election turnout is typically quite low and their base is more likely to show up so they tend to fair better when turnout is low than high.  Should be interesting to watch.

Not to go too far off topic, but from the B.C perspective, this likely explains why no Liberal M.L.A had entered the leadership race (which is only around 4 months away): they were all waiting to see what Dianne Watts would decide.

I wonder if Ben Stewart will step down as candidate as she will need a seat and since Kelowna West is a very safe BC Liberal seat it would seem logical for the next leader to run there if they don't already have.

Actually, Outremont, thanks to its "urban progressive" base, was the NDP's strongest QC seat over the Alexa/Layton years; and that was prime reasoning behind Mulcair's running there in the first place.  If it now seems "more Mulcair than NDP", it's thanks to the Justin Liberals repatriating the urban progressives--Mulcair "saved" Outremont in 2015 in much the same way that Justin "saved" Papineau in 2011.

This is correct. There really are no "NDP seats" in Quebec. Outremont is as close as you're going to get to one. As evidenced by the last two elections though, it definitely has a lower ceiling than other ridings in the province, due to being home to more habitual Liberal voting populations...

Or at least, it was as close as you *were* going to get to one in the 90s/00s, with Mile End being the base of their (and later Quebec Solidaire's) support.

One thing that helped is that Outremont was actually more of a Liberal-Bloc marginal, which gave the pre-Mulcair NDP hope of coming up through the middle.

Outremont, 2006 general election

Liberal - red, BQ - purple, NDP - orange, Conservative - blue

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Outremont, 2008 general election

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Scarborough-Agincourt: Grits are waiting to hear if Jean Yip, Chan's widow, will run. (http://www.hilltimes.com/2017/09/25/prospective-liberal-nomination-candidates-scarborough-agincourt-awaiting-arnold-chans-widow-will-seek-nomination/119799)

She's running. (https://twitter.com/abbas_rana1/status/912336464897363968)

Grits probably hold it with Jean Yip. It'll be hard for the Conservative to attack the MP's widow without it crossing a line.

Oh, if there are attacks they will almost certainly be against Mr. Trudeau.

My rundown of the by-election in Kamloops: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/09/kamloops-mayoral-and-council-by.html

For progressives, we should be hoping Nancy Bepple is elected to city council, but I am fairly certain Ken Christian (endorsed by two high profile Liberals) will win the mayoral race.

Kamloops, mayor:

Ken Christian: 9274 (64%) - elected
Bill McQuarrie: 2661 (18%)
Stu Holland: 806 (6%)
Todd McLeod: 773 (5%)
Mike McKenzie: 518 (4%)
Glenn Hilke: 480 (3%)

Council

Kathy Sinclair: 3421 (12%) - elected
Ray Dhaliwal: 3292 (12%) - elected
Kevin Krueger: 3042 (11%)
Gerald Kenyon Watson: 2424 (9%)
Bill Sarai: 2182 (8%)
Leslie Lax: 2112 (8%)
Stephen Karpuk:1678 (6%)
Nancy Bepple: 1481 (5%)
13 others: 8194 (29%)

Turnout: 21% (down from 33% in 2014)

For Louis-Hebert provincially that should be interesting.  PLQ is favoured, but this could be the first indication if the uptick in CAQ support is real as this is riding where CAQ support usually tracks fairly close to the provincial average.  PQ has lost a lot of its support in Quebec City while PLQ is competitive and CAQ is too.  CAQ does though much like the federal Tories tend to do better in the suburbs so areas to the north and east of here, but they could pull off an upset nonetheless.

Watts and Foote's seats are officially vacant. (https://twitter.com/rachaiello/status/914930668836196352)

Didn't write much, but here is my blog post about today's by-election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/10/louis-hebert-by-election-today.html

Foote's seat will be an easy Liberal hold.  Only thing interesting will be will it be as big a blowout as it was in 2015 or not.  Watt's seat however could flip to the Liberals as they dominated the Lower Mainland and probably would have won her seat if she were not the candidate.  That being said in 2006, 2008, and 2011, the Tories won it by big margins so this will be a test as to whether the Liberals are holding onto their gains in BC or are the Tories rebounding as polls of late seem a bit unclear which it is.

For Louis-Hébert, I was listening to a preview on tv. It seems CAQ has a good chance of winning. They had a party paid poll (I think done by Mainstreet) done and they are ahead. So a good turnout is good for CAQ. Lib would need a low turnout to win. At 4 pm turnout was 33%.

Louis-Hébert was the ridign with the highest turnout last election. (from memory about 83%)
The rifding is higher income, higher education. A journalist suggested the Sam Hamad (who vacated the seat) loyalists could vote for the PCQ (Conservative), not voting for the opposition but not happy how Hamad was treated. The PCQ candidate works in the riding office of the CON Portneuf MP. She is a past candidate for mayor in Saint-Augustin. She was the CAQ riding president in Portneuf but left when the CAQ welcomed the PLQ riding president and became the CAQ candidarte for Portneuf.

Other candidates have also multi-party past. The PQ candidate had also QS membership up until the campaign began. The CAQ candidate was a PLQ member until maybe 2 years ago. She has worked for PLQ minister office in communication before. The PLQ candidate worked for Hamad in the Louis-Hébert riding office. She worked as volunteer when Hamad first got elected but between his first election and started working for him she was on the ADQ riding executive for five months. Some suspect she was spying.

Not surprising, as the CAQ and the PLQ are essentially the same ideologically these days.

The Louis-Hébert campaign started and the two party with a shot at winning had to change candidates.
https://looniepolitics.com/scandal-plagues-start-of-quebec-by-election/ (https://looniepolitics.com/scandal-plagues-start-of-quebec-by-election/)
(Contrary to what Bélanger wrote the riding does not include Sillery and Laval University, maybe he was thinking of the federal riding)

The CAQ candidate is young, pregnant and good at communications. She works for the Coroner's office, did media relations when there were tragedies. She claims some ooponents have raised the maternity leave against her (taking maternity leave in a couple monts for a 1 year mandate) Uses Integrety on her signs.

The Liberal candidate is said to be the 8th choice of the party. Good when meeting people but not in media. Had a facebook posting supporting covered face at citizenship ceremony. Sam Hamad was not at her nomination and I don't think publicly supported his 10 year riding assistant. After the fiasco of the PLQ candidate withdrawing, Couillard changed chief of staff, was blamed for this and caucus doesn't seem to like him.

PLQ has face problems. Local issues are improvong traffic and a paint plant that odor pollute and got many environment infracyions. PLQ pledge to extend a highway but a decade old government report states it's not a good idea. Just over the weekend Couillard promised the paint plant would move. Nathalie Normandeau, a former PLQ vice premier (facing corruption charges) and now radio host told people to vote CAQ. Among her criticisms she doesn't like the systemic racism commission.

http://www.journaldequebec.com/2017/09/28/normandeau-invite-les-quebecois-a-voter-pour-la-caq (http://www.journaldequebec.com/2017/09/28/normandeau-invite-les-quebecois-a-voter-pour-la-caq)

I take a personal interest in the goings-on of Louis-Hebert, since the man himself was my great (x12th?) grandfather.  Of course, he is also related to half of the province.

Given the lack of enthusiasm for the PLQ, does the NDPQ stand a chance of reaching double digits?  Or will they get a more fringe-y 1-2%?

I don't know if I have L-Hébert in my ancestry.

NDPQ probably fringe. Probably no budget and maybe there is a lack of exposure. Don't know locally but national media concentrate on 3 or 4 candidates. There are 10 candidates running, the leader of Parti Vert is running, there is a Option Nationale candidate, an Independent, a Equioe Autonomiste.

In some previous by-elections PLQ won but did not have great scores like in Saint-Henri or Verdun but other parties split the rest of vote. Will be interesting to see tonight if CAQ consolidates the change vote or it splits among numerous parties. It seems PQ would like to get the same score as the general election (18%). QS will probably increase its share.

Results are starting to come in:

After 4 polling station CAQ is at 50%

https://resultats.dgeq.org/resultatsPreliminaires.en.html (https://resultats.dgeq.org/resultatsPreliminaires.en.html)

Preliminary voter turnout 53%

Still early but CAQ is over 50% and PLQ is running behind the PQ (who is near its vote share of last election). Sometimes there are a lot of Liberal votes in the advance polling stations but they are very far behind. Looks like a good chunk of PLQ vote of last election goes to CAQ and the other parties not much movement.

Unless all the polls reporting are along the edges of the riding in the North and West, I cannot see how this can be anything other than a CAQ win at this point.  Their lead is over 30 points and we already have 10% of the polls in.  Might tighten up, but I think the CAQ should win this.  2nd place will be interesting since if the PQ come in second that will be a huge embarrassment to the PLQ.

Calling it for CAQ.

Disastrous for the PLQ so far losing, getting less than half of vote share of last election while CAQ doubles its share. Maybe PLQ will distance itself from PQ when other polls come in. Being close to third is a big slap in the face.

Looks like a yuge win for the CAQ.  While by-elections are different than general elections certainly this is a sign they are the main opposition to the PLQ.  QS fared rather poorly compared to polls although to be fair I suspect they are in single digits in most ridings outside of Montreal.

Wow the NDP got 1.35%?  This experiment was a bad idea.  Only way it will work is if Tom Mulcair himself is leader. But I guess the Quebec Conservatives are also fringe...

 Surprised the Conservatives though did better than the NDP as the CAQ is largely a conservative party philosophically.  It seems kind of like the PCs in Saskatchewan as opposed to the Saskatchewan Party.  By contrast while the PQ and QS are both social democratic parties, the NDP is a federalist social democratic one whereas those two are both separatists.  What is though lacking although not sure there is a market for it is a right wing separatist party.

They missed their opening. The party has been sitting inactive for years while the NDP has slid in the polls.

The PQ is both a right-wing and a left-wing separatist party.

Anyway, this is not the riding in which to find left-wing federalists.

(On a related note, it is really confusing that the federal and provincial Louis-Hebert ridings are in totally different parts of Quebec. If you're going to name ridings after people, at least try to make them be in the same place!)

??? They are both in Quebec City, and overlap.. though I loathe ridings named for people. Maybe you're thinking of Papineau?

FWIW Louis Hebert was once the PQ's strongest seat in the Quebec City area. The almost won it in 1973 and the won it by massive majorities in 1976 and 1981 when it was represented by Claude Morin - one of Levesque's closest confidantes.

For some reason I thought the federal one was near Montreal. Carry on :)

Then Louis-Hébert was much more to the east, too.

Yeah, not the same riding at all. Jean-Talon covers what was then Louis-Hebert. Though, Jean-Talon is a fairly safe Liberal seat right now. Weird.

Jean-Talon also includes very wealthy Sillery.

That must be the difference, because Louis-Hebert didn't include Sillery back then (still doesn't, of course).

Outremont: Mulcair sounds likely to quit by Christmas or even earlier. (https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/09/27/Mulcair-Looks-to-Christmas-Retirement/)

I'm not so sure about that. Jean Talon provincial riding has existed since 1970 and Louis-Hebert has always been largely the suburb of Ste. Foy

Different parts of Ste-Foy. Louis-Hebert of 1976 only shares a small part of territory as today's Louis-Hebert:

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So the current Jean Talon is more of a successor riding to the Louis Hebert 1976... but my point remains that back in the 70s and 80s that area was a PQ stronghold and these days the PQ is not at all competitive in either Louis Hebert or Jean Talon

Steve Kent (MHA for Mount Pearl North) has resigned. One of the few PC held seats in the province, so should be an easy hold for the Tories.

Vancouver municipal by-elections.  8:30, no results so far.

True enough and also the Newfoundland Liberals have seen their popularity take a pretty big hit since the last election.  Whether it would be enough to defeat them or not is tough to say, but they've fallen enough much like the Saskatchewan Party that you would expect the PCs to not only hold what they have but pick up any marginal seats too. 

3/53 polling stations reporting.  Hector Bremner leads the city council race with 41% of the vote.

5/53 polling stations reporting.  Hector Bremner leads with 36% of the vote.  Peter Fry in second with 19%

10/53 polls.  Bremner jumps into a big lead with 42% of the vote, Fry in second with 17%.  Vision Vancouver's Diego Cardona at 9.6%

NPA has 5 of 9 school board positions, Green 3 and one Vision Vancouver.

14/53 stations.  8,552 ballots counted.  Bremner 40%, Fry 18%, Jean Swanson in third.  Vision Vancouver candidate now just over 10%.

No change for school board.

The orger is quite stable now. NPA, Green, leftovers of COPE, "OneCity" and then Vision

25/53 polling stations reporting now.  19,457 votes out of 442,792 eligible.  Hopefully the advanced poll is large.

Hector Bremner still leads but has dropped to 33% while Pete Fry is up to 20%.  Unlikely Fry can catch up but it could still get interesting.

Vision Vancouver now up to 2 school board positions with the NPA dropping to 4.

32/53 polling stations.  Bremner 33% Fry 20%.  5.49% counted turnout so far.

No change for school board.

40/53 polling stations reporting. 32,084 counted ballots.  Bremner 32%, Pete Fry 20%, Jean Swanson 19%

No change for school board, but tight race for final spot between Vision Vancouver, NPA and One City.

45/53 polling stations reporting. 35,517 counted votes.  8.02% turnout.  (Sad)

Bremner 31%, Fry 20, Swanson 19%

No change for school board.


Sad is putting the turnout mildly. 

Definitely not a good night for Vision Vancouver so while still a year away, it does seem Gregor Robertson may face greater headwinds although it still seems more voted left than right but split on the left.  Turnout 8.02% is pathetic.  BTW I voted despite the fact I had to drive in to the city as I am staying on Bowen Island for the next few weeks to do some dogsitting.

50/53 41,838 ballots counted.

Bremner 28.5%, Swanson 20.5% Fry 20%

3 Green, 3 Vision Vancouver, 2 NPA 1 One City on school board.  If that holds up it will be the Vancouver version of the old Italian Parliament.

My new pet peeve:  there is no need to say 'the fact', or 'the fact that...'  "I voted despite having to drive..."

Talk about a massive vote split. NPA candidate wins with 28% of the vote. All the other major candidates are on the left, if you count the Greens as being on the left.

Final results.  48,645 ballots. 10.99% turnout.  (Elections Vancouver had hoped for 20-25%) I'm not sure much can be read into a by-election with such a low turnout.  This is about 1/3 of normal turnout to Vancouver municipal elections.

Hector Bremner, NPA 27.83%
Jean Swanson,  21.36%
Pete Fry, Green,  20.31%
Judy Graves, One City, 13.17%
Diego Cardona, Vision Vancouver, 11.26%

School board elected in order:
1.Janet Fraser, Green
2.Judy Zaichkowsky, Green
3.Esteillita Gonzalez, Green (Greens only ran three candidates)
4.Joy Alexander, Vision Vancouver
5.Allan Wong, Vision Vancouver
6.Lisa Dominato, NPA
7.Fraser Ballantyne, NPA
8.Carrie Bercic, One City
9.Ken Clement, Vision Vancouver

Janet Fraser, Joy Alexander, Allan Wong and Fraser Ballantyne served on the fired school board.

Bad night for both the main parties.

What are the predictions here for tomorrow's federal ones?

Mine are:

Sturgeon River-Parkland: That is no brainer, easy Tory win.

Lac Saint Jean: This is the tougher one to predict and any of the four parties could pull off a win, but my prediction is a BQ pick up.  If you check my blog I have a more detailed analysis on what I think each party's chances are.  Tories maybe gaining in English Canada and Liberals declining there, but in Quebec it is the opposite.  Never mind this was a Denis Lebel riding not a Tory one and in fact of the 12 seats they won, this was the only one more than 100km outside Quebec City as it seems Tories are competitive within the 100km radius of Quebec City but largely irrelevant elsewhere in the province.

Ambrose's seat is going Tory. I'm guessing Liberal pick up in Lebel's spot

Not sure where else to put this, but there's also a plebiscite on Monday on creating a new rural municipality west of Fredericton. My gut says it's probably going to fail.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-plebiscite-rural-community-1.4364491

There are three MRC in the federal riding of Lac-Saint-Jean. Lac Saint-Jean Est (Alma), Maria-Chapdelaine (Dolbeau) and Domaine-du-Roy (Roberval). In the general election Lebel won the last two and Dallaire won Lac Saint-Jean Est.

A recent Ipsos poll in the province has the LPC at 43%, Bloc 20%, NDP 16%, CPC 15%. Biggest movement is LPC up and NDP down.

Rémy Leclerc (CPC) is from Roberval, He was a city councillor and has worked with Lebel for a decade and I think he was also his campaign organizer. Organization is important in a byelection. He is against cannabis legalization. A Segma poll in the nearby city of Saguenay found 70% oppose legalization but the pollster doubts it will be the ballot question and it will be more about having an MP in power. Lerclerc also made "promises" like reinstate tax credit for artistic and physical activity of children, eliminate income tax on parental leave, and make easier transfer of family farm to the next generation.

Marc Maltais is the Bloc canddiate. He started later than the others, confirming he would run around September 25th. He is a regional union eader from Alma. His local union supported the NDP in the last election but supports him now. Will benefit from the support of PQ MNA Alexandre Cloutier.

Gisèle Dallaire for the NDP is also from Alma. Probably can't do as well than the last election with the general trend.

Richard Hébert for the LPC just finished his mandate as Dolbeau mayor. He said his five priorities are stimulate the economy and create good jobs for the middle class in the region, improve quality of life for seniors and quality of health care and home care, support reduce tax rate for middle cass families and give more moneyto families with children, reduce tax rate for small business and ptoect jobs in industries like lumber, see that needs of the region are at the heart of decisons made in parliament.  (some look like last campaign promises)

He has the support of other mayors around his town and some business leaders from Alma. Trudeau camapigned with him last Thursday and Friday. It is the usual charm offensive, visit with his wife and a child to nursing homes, visit restaurants, went to a regional meeting of farmers to say he will defend supply management, met forestry workers and reasured them. So a lot of exposure just a couple days before the vote.  

Predicting Grits edge out the Bloc. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-byelection-lacsaintjean-1.4360232)

Yes, I expect the Liberals will win too. Probably won't be that close either.

I suspect the Tories will win Roberval, but most of the Lac-Saint-Jean Ouest (former county & Couillard's riding) will go Liberal, while Lac-Saint-Jean Est will go BQ. How well the BQ does depends on how well they can GOTV in Alma.

If the Liberals win Lac Saint Jean it will be a huge morale booster in what has been a tough few weeks.  While Quebec often goes in different directions than English Canada it will show they have the potential to pick up at least 25 seats in Quebec and with a 15 seat majority that would give them a strong cushion for losses elsewhere.  Even though the Liberals are ahead in Quebec, I am still a bit skeptical of them pulling this off as this is one of the least friendly Liberal ridings in the province.  Hasn't voted Liberal federally since 1980 and voted 2/3 in favour of sovereignty in the 95 referendum thus why I give the BQ a slight edge, but admit both the Liberals and BQ stand a better chance of winning this than either the Tories or NDP.

I think for the Tories their big tests are the next round of by-elections.  They will easily hold Battlefords-Lloydminster, but South Surrey-White Rock could be tough as Diane Watts was a very popular mayor of Surrey.  Nonetheless this is your middle class suburban riding and usually whomever wins those forms the government so if the Tories lose it, its probably a sign they are in trouble outside their strongholds.  Mind you they seem to be gaining more in Alberta, Ontario and Atlantic Canada, not so much in BC.  Alberta it doesn't really matter, mostly wasted votes while Ontario you have a very unpopular provincial Liberal government which is probably hurting them, but they will likely lose next June so not an albatross around the Liberals' neck next election.  In Atlantic Canada it is more of a dead cat bounce as the Tories are simply returning to their traditional floor; in 2015 they performed well below their previous worst showings so back towards their other bad showings minus 2015.  Scarborough-Agincourt will be interesting since if the Tories pull of an upset or even come close that could be a sign of possible gains in the GTA suburbs.  This riding has a large Chinese community whom I've heard marijuana legalization is quite unpopular amongst.

Bonavista-Burin-Trinity will be an easy Liberal win, rather it will be shifts.  If the Liberals stay over 70% that shows they are still very strong in Atlantic Canada, but if they fall below 60% could suggest some of their more marginal ones could be in trouble.  For the Tories if they fail to crack the 20% mark, then that means at best they might win a seat or two New Brunswick and another possible shut out.  If they get in the 20s, Tories win back traditional strongholds, but still end up with significantly fewer seats than Liberals while if they cross the 30% mark then that likely means that are once again competitive in Atlantic Canada.  In Battlefords-Lloydminster, I think who comes in second could be interesting as asides from the far North it is the urban ridings that matter.  Strong vote splits likely means they go Tory, but if the progressive vote coalesces around either side, they should dominate the two cities in Saskatchewan.  Unlike elsewhere usually the NDP not the Liberals are the main challenge so will be interesting to see who comes in second there.

I don't think the Liberals will win. I'm not sure about my prediction, but I'm leaning towards the Bloc to pick up the seat.

The Bloc won't win. Their base (unionised factory workers) in Alma will be split between the Bloc and the NDP.

I need to go to bed for awhile. I'd like to know why these by-elections couldn't have been timed to fit into my schedule.  :D

I think the NDP will do worse than expected.  This is not an area where they have traditional strength and this is an area with a lot of old stock pure laine types so I think unfortunately for them Singh might be a liability.  That doesn't mean he will be everywhere in Quebec, I think on the Island of Montreal and the Gatineau area he could do quite well where people tend to be more open to those who are different.

First poll in Sturgeon River-Parkland and Conservatives have yuge lead.  87.5% Conservative, 12.5% Liberal and 0% NDP.  Off course only 24 votes and probably a rural poll where you would expect those type of numbers.  I suspect in Spruce Grove and Stony Plain the Tories will win handidly, but not by those type of massive margins.

BQ starting with a large lead after one poll in Lac Saint Jean.  Liberals in a distant second, NDP holding up better than I thought so far at 15% while Tories have fallen to fourth place.  But again it's one poll so don't read too much into it.

Okay, its only five polls in, but I think it is safe to call Sturgeon River-Parkland for the Tories.  Not that this was ever in any doubt anyways.

Things are starting to tighten in Lac Saint Jean, but at this point it is fair to say the Conservatives have lost it, the question is whether the BQ who are narrowly ahead pick it up or the Liberals who are closing the gap.  In Sturgeon River-Parkland, the Tories are flirting with the 80% mark and if you add in the Christian Heritage Party who is even further to the right it wouldn't surprise me if over 80% vote for parties on the right.

It'll be interesting to see if the NDP can come ahead of the Liberals in Sturgeon River-Parkland. It would be a consolation prize after a devastating loss in Quebec, but a consolation prize nonetheless, better than walking away completely empty handed.

CBC calls Sturgeon River-Parkland for the Tories. (https://twitter.com/musgravesharon/status/922646515109134336)

Probably not as in Alberta outside the cities, the provincial NDP is pretty loathed so I think the unpopularity of the provincial NDP will hurt them.  Not saying Notley is toast, but she has her work cut out and I doubt they will win many seats outside the cities anyways.  In Calgary most dislike the NDP but a sizeable minority like them whereas in Edmonton a majority approve of Notley, but in rural Alberta and this riding is more rural than urban, the anger is very strong.

Oh, NDP will do badly, I just thought the NDP/Bloc (their typical voters in Alma is the same person) split would make Bloc unable to get better than 2nd place.

I think Bill 62 and a weakened NDP in Quebec is setting the stage for a Bloc comeback. I think the Bloc has this, unless all/most of the polls reporting are from Alma and the area.

If the NDP lost 13% of their vote share in all their currently held Quebec seats, only Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Alexandre Boulerice, and Guy Caron would remain in the House (of course, this is before the 13% gets redistributed).

I’m actually pleasantly surprised the NDP is making crédible showing with about 16% of the vote. I was afraid they would lose their deposit considering this is not a good area for them. It’s a bigger disaster for the Tories to come in a distant third in a riding they have held for 10 years and it’s also a major fiasco for the Liberals. They were expected to win and they spent MILLIONS. In the riding and had a strong candidate. Rural Quebec ridings have a bit of a history of swinging to the government party since they Expect to get lots of goodies. That is how the Tories won in the first place in 2007

Through:

1. That part of Quebec is probably one of the worst for Singh.
2. The race was sold in Quebec media as a Lib-Con-Bloc race. I suspect races with NDP incumbents would, at the very least, be described as NDP-something-(something) races.

the CPC vote is down about 15 points. How many of their 12 Quebec seats would they be left with on a uniform swing like that?

Bloc lead is down to 44 votes.

Liberals have taken the lead.

Liberal is up slightly

Maybe the first results were more from the Alma side.

Probably most, mind you if you look at a map of their support last election, Lac Saint Jean was the only riding outside the Quebec City region.  I would suspect their numbers if not for Lebel would be similar to Jonquiere-Alma and Chicoutimi which so far they appear to be.  Now a by-election in one of the Quebec City area ones would be a better indicator if they are tanking throughout Quebec or still holding in their island of support.

Looking food for the Liberals, but still want to wait but for we get closer.  Even though I predicted a BQ win, I always thought it would be a BQ-Liberal race, Tories in third and NDP in fourth and that seems to be what is transpiring.

Liberals pulling further ahead and BQ falling behind while Conservatives are moving up a bit although not nearly enough to win, maybe second if they are really lucky but unlikely.  While not quite ready to call it, if the Liberal lead stays or grows over the next few polls I think we can call it for them.

Right now, the Bloc's closer to the Cons than to the Libs.

At this point, I think it is safe to call Lac Saint Jean for the Liberals.  The odds of the BQ and especially the Conservatives overcoming such gap is pretty slim.

Since Denis Lebel won more on a name than party I thought I would compare to neighbouring Jonquiere and Chicoutimi Le Fjord.

The Liberals either won or came close and in both cases got around 30% so they are doing slightly better but one needs to be careful about assuming this means a massive swing, if Lebel wasn't running they probably would have got around that.  Nonetheless it's a big enough swing they would probably still get 60 seats in Quebec which would give them a much stronger cushion and also make it very hard for the Conservatives to beat them in seats.

For the BQ they are doing as expected.

For the Tories, the results on the surface look horrible, but in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord and Jonquiere they only got 16-17% which they are outperforming.  That being said the Conservatives have their work cut out for them in Quebec and they would be lucky just to hold what they currently have forget about picking up new seats in Quebec.  And without Quebec majority is extremely difficult to get (what happened in 2011 will be tough to repeat).  Likewise without the NDP or Bloc Quebecois challenging the Liberals, that makes getting a minority tough as in 2006 when they first came to power the Bloc took most of Quebec since had the Liberals won 40 instead of 13 seats in Quebec, that would have been enough to hang onto power even if results in Rest of Canada were unchanged.  Heck in 2008, if the Liberals got 60 seats instead of 14 it would be 143 Cons to 123 Libs so the ill fated coalition attempt probably would have faced much less backlash and gone through.

For the NDP not a good showing as they averaged close to 30% in the two neighbouring ridings that being said they still got in the teens so are doing better than they were here in 2004, 2006, and 2008 and I think Montreal is probably where their best chances are rather than the regions of Quebec.

Both of these are cities, while this is mainly rural.

True enough, although Liberals won Saint Maurice-Champlain so while agree they would have done slightly worse probably I think it's fair to say the Tories would have not won this if not for Lebel in 2015.

Interestingly enough it looks like they still might come in second as the gap between the BQ and Tories is closing while Liberals widening.

CBC has now called Lac Saint Jean for the Liberals.  While I doubt this will give much of a boost to national numbers, I do think this will be a huge morale booster for the Liberal caucus who have had a tough past few weeks and perhaps once they move beyond the issues they may very well recover.  I think many will feel more confident knowing that they are in good shape to make big gains in Quebec so even if they lose seats in English Canada it will mean they have to lose 30-40 instead of just 15 to lose their majority and lose around 60-70 instead of just 43 to lose outright so a nice cushion for them.  After all in both 1974 and 1980, Pierre Trudeau won fewer seats in English Canada than the PCs but his dominance of Quebec allowed him to win a majority so could we see a return to Liberal sweeps of Quebec thus helping the Liberals re-establish their national dominance?

It’s worth noting that this was once a big BQ stronghold that voted overwhelmingly Yes to independence and was Lucien Bouchard’s riding. If the BQ can’t win here where can they win?

Asides from Louis Plamandon's riding all of their wins were where they got the right breaks.  Pretty much all of them were under 40% so no real stronghold.  Louis Plamandon will probably hold his seat out of personal popularity as long as he is MP, but if he decides not to run in 2019, I could definitely see it flipping.

Bloc is now 3rd.

And only 4 votes behind the Cons.

Conservatives are now 252 votes ahead of BQ, probably down to advanced polls which they always seem to perform better in, probably due more widely used by seniors. Nonetheless Liberal win, NDP in fourth question is who comes in second.

I also think this might explain Trudeau's strange silence on Bill 62 as it is very popular here so didn't want to risk losing this. I expect he will come out harder against it with this in the rear view mirror.

Conservatives elected another dumbass:

Lloyd has a history of posting controversial views in social media, easily retained the Edmonton riding of Sturgeon River-Parkland with 77 per cent of the vote.

Among other things, Lloyd has referred to women's advocates as "Feminazis" and started a Facebook campaign to create a Canadian chapter of the National Rifle Association.

That said, since this isn't actually an 'Edmonton riding' it's possible the rest of the article is wrong.

Definitely the party will want to have stronger and more moderate candidates going into 2019 or they will provide lots of fodder for the Liberals if they have too many like him.  Every party has its kooky candidates, but the Tories have fair or not a bad reputation of being too right wing and they need to shed this if they ever want to return to power.

As for Edmonton, it is in the Capital region, but not part of the city of Edmonton.  While largely rural it does include several bedroom communities so its kind of like Airdire or Okotoks is to Calgary, Abbotsford to Vancouver, or Bowmanville to Toronto.  Still technically within the Metro area and commuting region but not the actual city.  Certainly the capital region surrounding Edmonton tends to vote much more heavily Conservative than the actual city itself.

Yes, the Edmonton suburb/exurb of Stony Plain is in the riding, however most of the rest of it is rural. Provincially the NDP handily won the older and larger suburban Edmonton ridings of St Albert and Sherwood Park in 2015.

This new M.P isn't the first extreme right winger who has won for the Conservatives in byelections, as I'd argue both the replacements for Jason Kenney and Stephen Harper are also fringe.

Actually we've barely heard from either of those two so I suspect if as extreme as he seem he will be confined to the backbenches.  Interestingly enough under Harper not all the by-election ones were extreme.  In his last term you had Erin O'Toole who is fairly moderate, Pat Perkins former mayor of Whitby, John Barlow who was the PC candidate in 2012 who lost to Danielle Smith, and Larry Maguire who was the PC candidate in the 1993 election.  Now you did have Joan Crockett in Calgary Centre who was a Wildroser and rather out there but she got turfed in 2015 mind you I doubt either of those three ridings will flip in 2019 considering their histories.  It does some Harper had a much stronger iron grip and did a better job of controlling the crazies.  Although I've found the better the Tories do the more moderate their caucus is as usually their urban MPs tend to be more moderate whereas the most extreme ones often come from the rural Prairies and to a lesser extent in rural Ontario and BC Interior/Fraser Valley, otherwise their strongholds.

And re byelection extremists, we can't forget the provincial case of Sam Oosterhoff in Ontario.

True enough, funny Brown has done a reasonably good job on forcing his caucus to vote moderately whether it be on the bubble law, the provincial version of M-103, condemning C-62 in Quebec.  Wonder how him and a few others like Rick Nichols and Randy Hillier are able to manage or has he read them the riot act.  Mind you it was funny when Harper brought in the motion to declare Quebec a nation within a united Canada watching many ex Reformers who long enjoyed bashing Quebec voting for it.

I tried doing a uniform swing on the by-elections using Sturgeon River-Parkland for English Canada results and Lac Saint Jean for Quebec and I get the following

Liberals 182 seats (29 in Atlantic Canada, 77 seats in Quebec, 56 seats in Ontario, 6 seats in Sask/Manitoba, 0 seats in Alberta, 11 seats in BC, and all three territories)

Conservatives 136 seats (3 seats in Atlantic Canada, 1 seat in Quebec (Maxime Bernier's), 58 seats in Ontario, 21 seats in Sask/Manitoba, 33 seats in Alberta, 20 seats in BC)

NDP 19 seats (None east of the Ottawa River, 7 seats in Ontario, Niki Ashton in Manitoba, 1 seat in Alberta, and 10 seats in BC)

Green Party 1 seat

Actually if you look at Eric Grenier's numbers not too far off although he doesn't have the Liberals quite as high as in Quebec a uniform swing would put them at 56% of the popular vote which no poll does and the Tories at only 9% which only Nanos shows them that low and NDP at 8% which no poll puts them at.

I do think though the Liberals will be hard pressed to hold all the seats they have in English Canada, so making gains in Quebec could easily cancel out any losses elsewhere and also makes it very likely they will win at least a plurality if not a majority.  The Tories realistically either need to get over 170 seats of have Tories + BQ + Independents over 170 seats as I suspect if the Liberals + NDP + Greens exceeds 170 seats they would gang up to defeat the Tories on a throne speech thus unless things change dramatically Scheer becoming prime-minister in 2019 seems very unlikely.  Mind you people said that about Donald Trump who won and Jeremy Corbyn who almost won so surprises can and do happen.

If the NDP under Jagmeet Singh is reduced to 19 seats, that'll be one heck of a bomb.

True, although looking at the history of the party, 30 seats seems to the average and asides from 2011, the 44 seats they got in 2015 is their second best showing beating Ed Broadbent's 1988 record of 43 seats.  I think a lot in the NDP still fantasize about forming government when in reality much of their contributions has come from holding the balance of power in Liberal minority governments.  Universal health care and pensions were all things that came under a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power so realistically the best for them regardless of seats is the Liberals get reduced to a minority and they hold the balance of power.  Also even a Tory minority provided the Liberals + NDP + Greens exceeds 170 seats could be good for them as I suspect those three parties would work together to keep the Tories out and prop up the Liberals.

But still; that's a fall *back*. A *significant* fall back; over half its seats lost and reverting to Layton '04 square one.  And I highly doubt the party was allowing for that kind of result in choosing Singh as leader--if they were, they'd have chosen a duffer like Howard Hampton succeeding Bob Rae in Ontario.  Or for that matter, like Ed Broadbent *seemed* to be in 1975 (or even Alexa succeeding Audrey in 1995).

It's not about historical NDP "averages" here.  It's about what they're banking/gambling on with their present chosen leader.

If you did a "uniform swing" based on the Outremont byelection of 2007 the NDP would have won a majority government in 2008 so what's the point of this exercise?

True enough, but still interesting also I usually try to take the average of by-elections than one on its own.  Perhaps the next round which will be four to five will be a better.

I'm not sure if this is intentional or not, but let's refrain from using the word bomb to describe Singh's political trajectory.  There are many places, even in Canada, that equate brown with terrorist, and this kind of language doesn't help.

I definitely meant "bomb" in the Heaven's Gate or Ishtar sense.  (the movies, that is)

Scarborough-Agincourt: Yip is in. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/arnold-chan-scarborough-agincourt-jean-yip-1.4377187)

Calgary-Lougheed MLA Dave Rodney is resigning his seat Nov. 1 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/jason-kenney-gets-to-work-new-leader-upc-1.4377594) to allow Kenney to get into the legislature.

Is he quitting politics or is this one of those "get your seat back next election" deals?

Probably more a "you'll get a comfy paid position once we recover the power electors stole from us".

I think it'll be interesting if the NDP *aren't* second place in the byelection.

Missed this from a few weeks ago, but PEI Education Minister Doug Currie is leaving politics.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-doug-currie-retiring-1.4361994

The by-election in Charlottetown-Parkdale will be held November 27, city councillor Rob Doiron has already won the Liberal nomination.
http://www.liberalpei.ca/by-election-to-be-held-november-27th/

EDIT: the Greens also nominated their candidate last night, Hannah Bell, in front of what CBC called a "packed house". They won 3 polls out of 11 here in 2015. They might actually have a shot at this.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-green-party-nomination-1.4378589

Charlottetown-Parkdale should likely favour the Liberals although if the NDP or Greens are hoping to pick up this seat this would seem like a good one.  PCs could win and certainly if they did that would be a very good sign although of recent they tend to be stronger in the rural ridings while struggle in Charlottetown.

In NB, Campbellton-Dalhousie Liberal MLA Donald Arseneault, has resigned after Brian Gallant told him you, uh, kinda can't be both an MLA and lobbyist at the same time. He already wasn't going to run in 2018 and decided to start his new job early.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/donald-arseneault-lobbyist-liberal-mla-1.4385571

Should be a fairly easy Liberal hold, but stranger things have happened.

Campbellton went PC in 2010, so I wouldn't rule out a PC win. Northern New Brunswick can be quite schizophrenic in its voting patterns.

Federal ones called for Dec. 11. (https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/927188455163019264)

Oh good. Thought we wouldn't see much going on electorally until next spring.

Let's look at South Surrey-White Rock vacated by Dianne Watts.

Prior to redistribution, it was the riding of South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale. Interesting since the last time the fed Liberals came close here was in 2004 when a bit of a red wave made its way from City of Vancouver to the outer suburbs of South Surrey-White Rock whereby fed Liberals came within 6% of the CPC candidate. Looking at polling stations in 2004, the CPC did very well in the Cloverdale portion. With Cloverdale removed, the fed Liberals would undoubtedly picked this seat up in 2004.

Of course, the red wave of 2015 was akin to 1968 and swept through most of BC. Undoubtedly, the federal Liberals would have picked this riding up in 2015 had it not been for CPC candidate Dianne Watts who narrowly won.

BTW, in both 2004 and 2015, the federal Liberal candidate was former City of Surrey councillor Judy Higginbotham - "blue" Liberal.

Today, former long-time BC Liberal MLA Gordie Hogg for Surrey-White Rock (who did not run in 2017 BC election and also former mayor of White Rock) has officially announced his intention to run for the federal Liberal nomination. If no one else steps up, I expect Hogg to be fed Liberal nominee.

A few weeks back former fed CPC MP for neighbeighbouring riding of Delta & former Minister of National Revenue, Kerry-Lynne Findlay, announced her intention to seek the CPC nomination. Again, if no one else steps up to the plate, I suspect Findlay to be the CPC nominee.

Demographics of South Surrey-White Rock are typically centre-right and middle/upper middle class in an area considered to be one of most desirable in Metro Vancouver.

Hogg was a popular local BC Liberal MLA with name recognition while Findlay doesn't have the name recognition in the riding.

Will the red "wave" of 2015 remain in this by-election? Doubtful as they are rare general election events. While the Fed Liberals are still dominant in BC, I also sense an uptick for the CPC ergo the odds slightly favour the CPC candidate. Moreover, provincial BC by-elections (except under special circumstances) always favours an opposition party.

With South Surrey-White Rock, tough to say but agree it would have gone Liberal in 2015 had Watts not been the candidate.  That being said if you look at national polls FWIW it shows things have tightened up in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and Prairies, but BC is largely unchanged and Liberals have gone up in Quebec while Tories down a bit.  Atlantic Canada is more of a dead cat bounce as even with the Tories up almost 10%, they are still on track for their second worst showing in Atlantic Canada save 2015.  Quebec is probably more due to weakness of opposition as none of the opposition parties pose much challenge to the Trudeau Liberals.  For Ontario, I suspect the unpopularity if the Wynne government is why things are tighter and would not be surprised if the PCs win in Ontario in 2018, the Liberals rebound a bit federally.  Ontario often likes to vote opposites so if the PCs win next June that should be good news for the Liberals whereas if the Liberals get back in, then good news for the Tories.  In the Prairies the swing is modest but not surprising in Alberta Trudeau would be unpopular.  BC is always a wildcard and since the NDP provincially is still in its honeymoon phase for now that is probably why not much has changed.

Now if the NDP becomes less popular provincially and the Greens likely would too due to enabling them, then things could get more interesting.  This could help the Liberals as I suspect dissatisfied Green and NDP voters would be far more likely to switch to the Liberals than Conservatives.  But could help the Conservatives as some Blue Liberals might not like the idea of progressive governments at both levels.  The riding though is a fairly affluent one so perhaps Trudeau's tax changes could hurt him while changes to MSP Premiums might hurt  the NDP as likely it will mean higher taxes or a separate line item and a higher rate for most living in this riding.  If you compare to Ontario which has health premiums as part of the tax system, someone making 70K would pay more than BC while someone at 40K would pay less and in this riding you have more in the former than latter and the report is due on March 31, 2018 so not sure if by-election will be held before or after.  Also by-election turnouts tend to be lower and that is probably good for the Conservatives as their base is more motivated to show up and it means more older voters and fewer millennials which helps the Conservatives.

Of the other ones pending, Battlefords-Lloydminister and Bonavista-Burin-Trinity are safe seats and should not change.  With Battlefords-Lloydminster the only interesting question is who comes in second as that might be a hint at which party can challenge the Conservatives most in Saskatoon and Regina.  For Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, it will be more than numbers that are interesting.  The Liberals got 80% in 2015 and Tories only 12% so does it remain this wide or tighten and by how much as that might be a hint at how many seats the Tories could pick up in Atlantic Canada next time, otherwise are traditional Tory seats that went Liberal like Tobique-Mactquac, Fundy-Royal, and New Brunswick Southwest vulnerable or could the Liberals still hold those.

Scarborough-Agincourt leans Liberal and with Arnold Chan's wife running that should help.  Nonetheless if the Liberals lose this or win by less than 5%, this could signal much of the 905 belt would swing back to the Conservatives as this is a 416 suburb so leans Liberal but with a strong conservative base and usually conservative support is slightly weaker than in the neighbouring 905 ridings.

EDIT: Trudeau has called these for December 11th so doubt from the NDP government in BC will have too much impact.  Never mind South Surrey-White Rock is a weak NDP riding anyways.