Talk Elections

This is all only what I would hope for.

Democrats have a net gain of 12 seats. They gain the following:

California’s 49th - Doug Applegate defeats Darrell Issa
Arizona’s 2nd - Victoria Steele defeats Martha McSally
Colorado’s 3rd - Gail Schwartz defeats Scott Tipton
Texas’s 23rd - Pete Gallego (or some other Democrat from the area) defeats Will Hurd
Florida’s 18th - Randy Perkins defeats Brian Mast
North Carolina’s 7th - Thomas Mills defeats David Rouzer
Virginia’s 5th - Jane Dittmar defeats Tom Garrett
New York’s 1st - Anna Throne-Holst defeats Lee Zeldin
New York’s 22nd - Kim Myers defeats Claudia Tenney
New York’s 24th - Colleen Deacon defeats John Katko
Wisconsin’s 8th - Eric Genrich defeats Mike Gallagher
Nebraska’s 2nd - Pete Festersen defeats Don Bacon

Targeted by the Democrats, still lost:
Montana’s at-Large - Denise Juneau loses to Matthew Rosendale
California’s 21st - Daniel Parra loses to David Valadao
Maine’s 2nd - Eliot Cutler (who re-registers as a Democrat) loses to Bruce Poliquin
Iowa’s 1st - Swati Dandekar loses to Rod Blum
Iowa’s 3rd - Mike Sherzan loses to David Young
New York’s 19th - Will Yandik loses to John Faso
Minnesota’s 3rd - Terri Bonoff loses to Erik Paulsen
Pennsylvania’s 8th - Shaughnessy Naughton loses to Brian Fitzpatrick
Pennsylvania’s 16th - Christina Hartman loses to Lloyd Smucker

I would not predict individual house races now. Some seats would be quite competitive if opened but safe if incumbent stays on (UT-04).

Democrats probably gain seats in the house in 2018. How many? It could be 5, it could be 47. But net gain of 12 actually does sound reasonable.

Hard to predict, but I don't see that the Democrats win back the House. Maybe they gain 10 or 15 seats., but not much beyond that.

My official prediction

Dems make gains between 4 and 10 seats, but do not capture the House majority. The Democrats fall short in white working class districts they need to be competitive in to take the majority and they dominate their liberal coastal and urban seats, but that adds up to some 200 seats, not 218. Polarization guarantees the GOP House majority in '18.

Do Dems take the house if 2018 is a wave election?

-To the OP: There are always some upsets, but I would swap CA-21 and WI-08 for sure. Those two are trending in opposite directions, and Mike Gallagher destroyed someone considered the best possible Democrat by far more than expected. Valadao's district is stampeding left, and if the Senate and Governor races don't have Republicans, turnout will not be on his side either. Also, VA-05 will be a tough one for Democrats to wi against any incumbent not named Virgil Goode. Why NC-07? NC-09 and NC-13 are the Democrats' two best shots at picking up a House seat in North Carolina, after that it's not even close.

-I'll put my (very early) predictions later.

Big enough wave, yes.

Intensely-unpopular, much-feared  Republican President in a midterm election... what could go wrong for the GOP? Everything that can go wrong will go wrong in the election.   

Dems will take 9 govs in AZ, FL, IL, KS, ME, MI, NV, NM, and WI and take 220-215 majority in the House.  And it will be a divided senate whomever controls it.

My predictions (not going into detail with individual races yet):

Democrats gain 15 or so seats (still short of a majority), from but not limited to the following:
A bunch of CA seats (I think most will fall)
WA-03
WA-08
AZ-02
CO-06
NE-02
TX-07
TX-23
TX-32
MO-02
IL-06
IL-12
IL-14
GA-07
FL-26
FL-27
OH-16
WV-03
VA-02
VA-10
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
NJ-02
NJ-03
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-01
NY-19
NY-22

Just because I didn't mention it doesn't mean I think it's safe, I may have forgotten some.

Republicans gain:
MN-01
One or two of: FL-07, NV-03, AZ-01, NJ-05, IA-02, MN-07, MN-08, PA-17

That's today, but Nov, 2018 is still a long way off

I don't know which seats exactly will flip but I think Democrats will win the popular vote by around 10%, could be slightly more (they're currently up 7% in the generic ballot) and get at least 220 seats.

PA 06,07 and 08, CA a bunch and Dems have their secular majority

I'm sticking with 30-35 net gain for Democrats.

All incumbents in GA (including Handel) will be re-elected comfortably.

D+4-10. Polarization is a hell of a drug.

D+40-45.

I think we're going to end up very close to a split House, but right now I think I'm favoring Dems with about a +27 seat gain.

D + 15 to 45ish.

I predict that democrats will gain the senate but not the house

Lolwut?

Democrats win the national PV but don't get a House majority

I think it is possible that, based in part on the special election results, many seats with lots of WWC voters will flip to the Democrats with big swings while they may get smaller swings in GOP-held seats with many college-educated white voters who could still support the GOP despite their disapproval of Trump so some California seats for instance could remain in GOP hands.

Great analysis.

No idea at this point, but vulnerable incumbents

Reps: CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-49, AZ-2, TX-23, TX-32, CO-6, WA-3, WA-8, MN-2, NE-2, IA-1, IA-3, KS-3, FL-26, FL-27, GA-6, VA-10, PA-7, PA-8, NJ-3, NJ-11, NY-19, NY-22

Dems: NV-3, NV-4, AZ-1, IA-2, MN-1, MN-7, MN-8, IL-17, FL-7, FL-13, NY-3, NY-18, NY-25, CT-5, NH-1

No way that Washington third district is going blue even so Jamie is being primaryed from the right
I say the dems pick up 5-14 seats

Democratic gains
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
IA-01
IA-03
IL-06
IL-14
KS-03
KY-06
ME-02
MN-02
MN-03
MT-AL
NE-02
NJ-03
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-24
OH-01
PA-06
PA-07
PA-16
SC-05
TX-07
TX-23
TX-32
UT-04
VA-02
VA-10
WA-08

Republican gains
MN-01

Dems gain 35 seats, Republicans gain 1 seat, net Democratic gain of 34 seats leading to a 47-seat Republican majority in the House becoming a 21-seat Democratic majority.

I'm calling it now, Dems will retake the house and have a net gain of at least 30 seats.

How does my prediction look?

Lol no

I've been trying to work out some final touches in my spreadsheet for race evaluation, and for now it has given me this order of flipping for Republican-held seats:

Tier 1: Democrats are 100% guaranteed winning this seat
FL-27

Tier 2: Barring a major surprise, these should flip
CA-49
CA-25
VA-10
CA-48

Tier 3: I expect most of these to flip in a decent Democratic performance
NJ-2
NY-19
FL-26
NE-02
AZ-02
WA-08
CO-06
TX-07
NY-22
MN-03

Tier 4: I expect most of these to flip in a very good Democratic performance
TX-23
MI-11
MN-02
IA-01
CA-10
CA-39
TX-32
NJ-11
CA-45

Tier 5: I expect some of these to flip in a very good Democratic performance
PA-07
NJ-07
VA-02
NY-24
------> Cutoff point for my prediction, D+28.
IA-03
PA-15
ME-02

Tier 6: In a wave election, I think a few of these might flip
MI-08
UT-04
PA-16
IL-12
KY-06
KS-02

Tier 7: In a wave election, we could see a couple of these flip
KS-03
PA-06
MT-AL
PA-08
CA-21
NC-09
GA-06
VA-05
NY-11
VA-07
WI-16
CA-04
NC-02
CA-50

Using Castro's system, which I really like, here's my predictions. It's hard at this time to predict the outcome of all the races, but there's a few I can give my best guess on:

Tier 1
FL-27

Tier 2
AZ-02
CA-49
CA-10
CA-15
VA-10

Tier 3
FL-26
IA-01
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NJ-02
NY-19
NY-22
TX-23
WA-08

Tier 4
CA-21
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48*
CO-06
IL-06
IL-12
ME-02
MN-03
PA-07
PA-15
TX-07

*If Rohrabacher retires or is indicted by Mueller, CA-48 goes to Tier 2

Tier 5
IL-13
IL-14
IA-03
KS-02
KS-03
NJ-07
NJ-11
PA-06
TX-32
UT-04
VA-02

Tier 6
FL-18
FL-25
GA-06
KY-06
MI-08
MT-AL
NJ-03
NM-02
NY-01
OH-01
PA-16
VA-05
VA-07

Tier 7
These flip in a Democratic tidal wave or a circumstance that is unique to the race
CO-03
FL-06
GA-07
IN-02
MI-01
MI-07
NY-02*
NY-21
NY-23
NC-02
NC-09
NC-13
OH-10**
OH-14
PA-18
TX-21
TX-24
WA-03
WA-05
WV-02
WV-03
WI-01
WI-08

*King is speculated to be retiring, but waiting until the filing deadline passes so that his daughter can be chosen at a convention. If this happens, NY-02 goes to Tier 4
**Turner is speculated to also be considering retirement, in which case OH-10 would go to tier 5

Nepotism at its finest

Somewhere between D+10 and D+36

Dems have a good chance of picking up Florida 27 and 26, Texas 23, Colorado 6, California 49, 48, and 25, Pennsylvania 6 and 8, and Virginia 10. But Republicans have a chance at winning some seats too. Pennsylvania 17, Illinois 17, Wisconsin 3, Minnesota 1 and 8, Iowa 2, New Hampshire 1 and 2,  Arizona 1, and Nevada 3 could all be play for the GOP.

 

That's a little bit much. No chance that happens. And the possibility of Pelosi being sleeker may not hurt in all the district's but in some it will hurt democrats and possibly cost them some seats.

At the end of the day, I really do not see Pelosi being an issue at all. There are much, much bigger things to deal with.

My current midterm forecast ranges from R+5 to R+8 in the senate and from Even to D+10 in the house. However I do believe democrats should make some progress in Governerships, which will improve redistricting and allow democrats to flip the house in 2022, especially considering this will probably be trumps second midterm which are known to be much worse for incumbent parties then the first one especially for republicans.

Just... stop...

I really don't get why a democrat is a partisan republican hack.

()

Democrat Gain: 33

Safe D: 182
Likely D: 16
Lean D: 29
Lean R: 15
Likely R: 21
Safe R: 172

😒

My updated house forecast is D+10 if Democrats are having a bad midterm and getting blown out in the senate because their base didn’t show up while the republicans did. However my forecast is D+26 if Democrats are flipping the house and holding their ground if not flipping the senate because their base did show up while the republicans stayed home.

So D+26 then.

I am always cautious. D+20 right now. But only because Democrats frequently lose a number of seats "in the last month". If present tendencies will exist by Oct. 1st - D+35 is quite possible.

Hopefully, 25 seats will be the Majority Democratic party in the House and more to come, as wave is beginning to build.

Do you actually agree with all my exact figures & ratings?


I though Democrats only needed +24 to take the House, but I have been seeing the 25 number a lot lately.  Why is that?

I agree generally with your figures.

I think 25 is being used because the GOP will probably gain MN-01.

D +70 seats in house
Senate retaken
....and parity in state governorships.

And Trump impeached as "cherry on the cake". People can dream))))

Now your talking smolty

Yeah, this is a very hackish prediction. I will say though, if McCain resigns, I think the Senate is Lean D.

I think Senate is anywhere between 51 Republicans and 48 Republicans. The House flips, Democrats get at least 230 seats(but this requires a double-digit popular vote win, and going beyond 250 is a stretch). In governorships Democrats probably gain parity or an outright majority(at least 25).

I've updated my model, this time also putting in a predictive part. Based on available information, it shows a swing of 25 Republicans and 2 Democrats. Adjusting for predicted trends in data, it shows 38 Republican and 1 Democratic held seat will flip, for a net gain of 37 seats to Democrats. I should note that this will probably be more accurate once fourth quarter fundraising numbers come out, and that I'm counting AZ-02 as an open seat. The main problem right now is a lack of information, which will improve as more polling and more up to date fundraising totals come in. While cumulative probabilities add up to roughly a 38 seat swing towards Democrats and a 1 seat swing for Republicans, I'm not saying it will necessarily follow this exact order. The most vulnerable seat is MN-01 for Democrats.

Republican Order of Vulnerability:

1. FL-27 - OPEN
------------------
2. FL-26 - Carlos Curbelo
3. CA-49 - Darrell Issa
4. AZ-02 - OPEN
5. TX-07 - John Culberson
6. VA-10 - Barbara Comstock
---------------------------------
7. NE-02 - Don Bacon
8. IL-06 - Peter Roskam
9. MN-03 - Erik Paulsen
10. NJ-11 - Rodney Frelinghuysen
11. CO-06 - Mike Coffman
12. CA-25 - Steve Knight
13. CA-48 - Dana Rohrabacher
----------------------------------
14. CA-10 - Jeff Denham
15. CA-45 - Mimi Walters
16. NY-22 - Claudia Tenney
17. NY-19 - John Faso
18. TX-23 - Will Hurd
19. MN-02 - Jason Lewis
20. NJ-02 - OPEN
21. IA-01 - Rod Blum
22. WA-08 - OPEN
23. PA-07 - Pat Meehan
24. CA-39 - Ed Royce
25. CA-21 - David Valadao   (Nowcast)
26. PA-08 - Brian Fitzpatrick
--------------------------------
27. MI-11 - OPEN
28. TX-32 - Pete Sessions
29. NJ-07 - Leonard Lance
30. NY-24 - John Katko
31. IA-03 - David Young
32. KS-02 - OPEN
33. MI-08 - Mike Bishop
34. GA-06 - Karen Handel
35. KS-03 - Kevin Yoder
36. ME-02 - Bruce Poliquin
37. PA-15  - OPEN
--------------------
38. MT-AL - Greg Gianforte   (Forecast)
39. NC-09 - Robert Pittenger
40. VA-05 - Tom Garrett
41. WI-06 - Glenn Grothman
42. PA-16 - Lloyd Smucker
43. VA-07 - Dave Brat
44. PA-06 - Ryan Costello
45. UT-04 - Mia Love
46. IL-12 - Mike Bost
47. KY-06 - Andy Barr
48. NC-02 - George Holding
49. NY-11 - Dan Donovan
50. VA-02 - Scott Taylor
51. GA-07 - Rob Woodall
52. FL-25 - Mario Diaz-Balart
53. FL-18 - Brian Mast
54. IL-14    - Randy Hultgren
55. WI-01 - Paul Ryan
56. CA-50 - Duncan Hunter
57. IL-13    - Rodney Davis
58. NJ-03 - Tom MacArthur
59. OH-01 - Steve Chabot
60. MI-06 - Fred Upton
---------------------
61. NC-13 - Ted Budd
62. WA-05 - Cathy McMorris Rodgers
63. TX-24 - Kenny Marchant
64. TX-31 - John Carter
65. NY-01 - Lee Zeldin

I already did my. For now - D+20. But i can (and will) revise predictions later

It does seem hackish but I'm not a registered Democrat. I think Trump is the spark that brings about a huge increase in Civic participation, especially for an ascending generation that by 2018 will eclipse Boomers for the first time ever.

What you have is a situation where the perfect storm is forming for many different reasons and not just the reason aforementioned above. Had any other Republican been elected, it wouldn't of happened tho.

D+3

Gains:
FL-27
VA-10
CA-49
CA-10
CA-25
AZ-2
NJ-2
FL-26


Losses:
MN-8
MN-1
MN-7
OH-13
IL-17
PA-17

Maybe if Jeb/Christie/Kasich had been elected and tried to govern from the center, no one would've cared, but do you think that if a Tea Party candidate had been elected and implemented far-right policy reforms with Goldwater-style zero compromise (unlike Reagan/GWB who tried to compromise), no one would have noticed?

^ So  Scott Walker is elected w/ 55 senate seats, privatizes medicare/ss and no one notices?

Probably not if they behaved themselves. Bush lied about Iraq then got re elected and increased GOP majorities in both Houses in 2004. Why? Because Bush was affable and cunning.
Trump is not....he just makes things up as he goes along and it's obvious.

The thing about Trump is that he's fundamentally a repulsive human being and hating someone is a far greater electoral motivator. No matter what Trump does, even with good intentions, it's seen as a scam or con and there's nothing the GOP can do to change voters perceptions of that. The tax bill is one example....maybe the bill isn't that bad, but because Trump is unpopular, a known huckster, and wealthy, people assume it's a con job to enrich himself. No other GOP candidate would of brought such suspicion or evoked such distaste

Trump's personality and behavior are really 90% of people's motivation to vote against the GOP. Most people don't even care about the policies or positions. It's just: " uh, that vile man!"

Bush at least pretended to be a moderate in some respects. He expanded Medicare (Part D), supported the No Child Left Behind Act, etc. That's maybe what Jeb or Kasich may have tried to do, so Jeb/Kasich have a healthcare plan that is Obamacare-lite, and they invest in the DOE to implement Common Core, etc.

The bulk of the Tea Party candidates running made no pretensions of moderation. They would've nominated Secretaries of Education on par with Devos (without the Devos part), etc.

I'm glad you've changed your avatar to reflect your ACTUAL party affiliation.

This far out? Anywhere from D+30 to D+80

FTFY

Gonna borrow from Castro and rank/tier each race by vulnerability

Tier 1
1. FL-27 (OPEN - Ros-Lehtinen)
Tier 2
2. VA-10 (Comstock)
3. NJ-02 (OPEN - LoBiondo)
4. AZ-02 (OPEN - McSally)
5. CA-49 (Issa)
Tier 3
6. MN-02 (Lewis)
7. WA-08 (OPEN - Reichert)
8. FL-26 (Curbelo)
9. CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
10. NE-02 (Bacon)
11. MI-11 (OPEN - Trott)
12. CA-25 (Knight)
13. CA-10 (Denham)
14. NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen)
15. TX-07 (Culberson)
16. NY-22 (Tenney)
Tier 4
17. NY-19 (Faso)
18. CO-06 (Coffman)
19. MN-03 (Paulsen)
20. CA-39 (Royce)
21. TX-23 (Hurd)
22. IL-06 (Roskam) -----> current projection
23. IA-01 (Blum)
24. PA-15 (OPEN - Dent)
Tier 5
25. KS-02 (OPEN - Jenkins)
26. IL-12 (Bost)
27. ME-02 (Poliquin)
28. KY-06 (Barr)
29. GA-06 (Handel)
30. KS-03 (Yoder)
31. CA-21 (Valadao)
32. NJ-07 (Lance)
33. CA-45 (Walters)
34. TX-32 (Sessions)
35. NY-24 (Katko)
36. PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
37. PA-06 (Costello)
38. MT-AL (Gianforte)
39. VA-02 (Taylor)
40. WV-03 (OPEN - Jenkins)
Tier 6
41. PA-07 (Meehan)
42. UT-04 (Love)
43. NJ-03 (MacArthur)
44. MI-06 (Upton)
45. IA-03 (Young)
46. FL-18 (Mast)
47. VA-07 (Brat)
48. VA-05 (Garrett)
49. GA-07 (Woodall)
50. NM-02 (OPEN - Pearce)
51. PA-16 (Smucker)
52. NY-01 (Zeldin)
Tier 7
53. NC-13 (Budd)
54. TX-31 (Carter)
55. IL-13 (Davis)
56. CA-50 (Hunter)
57. NC-02 (Holding)
58. IL-14 (Hultgren)
59. MI-07 (Walberg)
60. MI-08 (Bishop)
61. WI-01 (Ryan)
62. NC-09 (Pittenger)
63. OH-01 (Chabot)
64. FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)

Dems as well:

Tier 1
None -----> current projection (rip)
Tier 2
1. MN-01 (OPEN-Walz)
Tier 3
2. NH-01 (OPEN-Shea-Porter)
3. NV-03 (OPEN-Rosen)
Tier 4
4. MN-08 (Nolan)
5. NV-04 (OPEN - Kihuen)
Tier 5
6. FL-07 (Murphy)
7. NJ-05 (Gottheimer)
8. AZ-01 (O'Halleran)
Tier 6
9. MN-07 (Peterson)
10. FL-13 (Crist)

After that doesn't really matter

Right now I'd say anything from D+25 to D+50 is possible, with D+30-35 being what I think is most likely. D+1 to D+4 in the Senate is also possible (D+4 ONLY possible if it's Bredesen v. Blackburn in TN and Ted Cruz takes a popularity hit, normally I'd say TX is off the table but IIRC Cruz's favorables are lower in TX than Roy "Mary was underaged too" Moore's were in AL on Dec. 12, sooo...), with D+2 being most likely to me (Heller loses and Sinema wins in AZ).

In 2020 I'd lean towards a large Dem victory in the Presidential election, which would coattail Congressional Dems to a few more House and Senate seats (how many House seats depends on both 2018 and 2020).

If Trump wins in 2020, 2022 will be an absolute massacre for Republicans in the House and Senate, and 2024 would be bad too.

I included any remotely competitive seat in this list by the broadest definition of competitive. Taking into account a model with 4Q fundraising, 2016/2017 congressional performance, "expert" prognosticator rankings, and 2016 Clinton/Trump margin,  I have this order of vulnerability:

Republicans:

1   FL-27   OPEN
------------------------- Safe D
2   CA-49   OPEN
3   AZ-02   OPEN
4   CA-39   OPEN
5   PA-07   OPEN
------------------------- Likely D
6   NJ-02   OPEN
7   CA-25   Steve Knight
8   NJ-11   OPEN
9   CO-06   Mike Coffman
10   MI-11   OPEN
11   MN-02   Jason Lewis
12   CA-48   Dana Rohrabacher
--------------------------------------- Lean D
13   NY-19   John Faso
14   TX-07   John Culberson
15   TX-23   Will Hurd
16   VA-10   Barbara Comstock
17   NE-02   Don Bacon
18   FL-26   Carlos Curbelo
19   IA-01   Rod Blum
20   NY-22   Claudia Tenney
21   CA-45   Mimi Walters
--------------------------------- Tilt D
22   MN-03   Erik Paulsen
23   NJ-07   Leonard Lance
24   WA-08   OPEN
25   PA-06   Ryan Costello
26   CA-10   Jeff Denham
27   PA-15   OPEN
28   KS-02   OPEN
29   PA-18   OPEN
30   TX-21   OPEN
------------------------- Toss-up
31   GA-06   Karen Handel
32   NC-13   Ted Budd
33   PA-16   Lloyd Smucker
34   UT-04   Mia Love
35   IL-12   Mike Bost
36   MI-08   Mike Bishop
37   PA-08   Brian Fitzpatrick
38   IA-03   David Young
39   NM-02   OPEN
40   IL-06   Peter Roskam
41   VA-05   Tom Garrett
42   CA-21   David Valadao
43   OH-01   Steve Chabot
44   VA-07   Dave Brat
45   CA-50   Duncan Hunter
46   NJ-03   Tom MacArthur
47   MI-06   Fred Upton
48   KS-03   Kevin Yoder
-------------------------------- Tilt R
49   SC-05   Ralph Norman
50   WI-06   Glenn Grothman
51   NC-09   Robert Pittenger
52   TX-32   Pete Sessions
53   MT-AL   Greg Gianforte
54   FL-06   OPEN
55   CA-04   Tom McClintock
56   FL-18   Brian Mast
57   NC-02   George Holding
58   VA-02   Scott Taylor
59   FL-16   Vern Buchanan
60   NY-11   Dan Donovan
61   NY-24   John Katko
62   MO-02   Ann Wagner
63   TX-06   OPEN
64   IL-14   Randy Hultgren
65   KY-06   Andy Barr
66   ME-02   Bruce Poliquin
67   WA-05   Cathy McMorris Rodgers
68   CA-01   Doug LaMalfa
69   NJ-04   Chris Smith
70   WI-01   Paul Ryan
71   OH-12   OPEN
72   CA-08   Paul Cook
73   GA-07   Rob Woodall
74   NY-02   Pete King
75   TX-02   OPEN
------------------------- Lean R
76   IL-13   Rodney Davis
77   MI-01   Jack Bergman
78   CO-03   Scott Tipton
79   IA-04   Steve King
80   AZ-08   OPEN
81   IN-02   Jackie Walorski
82   PA-11   OPEN
83   AR-02   French Hill
84   FL-25   Mario Diaz-Balart
85   OK-05   Steve Russell
86   SC-01   Mark Sanford
87   TX-31   John Carter
88   IN-09   Trey Hollingsworth
89   NY-01   Lee Zeldin
90   MI-07   Tim Walberg
91   NY-27   Chris Collins
92   TX-10   Michael McCaul
93   TX-22   Pete Olson
94   TX-24   Kenny Marchant
95   SD-AL   OPEN
96   WV-03   OPEN
97   MI-03   Justin Amash
98   OH-16   OPEN
99   WA-03   Jaime Herrera Beutler
100   IN-03   Jim Banks
101   KS-04   Ron Estes
102   MD-01   Andy Harris
103   OH-07   Bob Gibbs
104   CA-22   Devin Nunes
105   FL-15   Dennis Ross
106   NC-08   Richard Hudson
107   NY-23   Tom Reed
108   OH-10   Michael Turner
109   AZ-06   Dave Schweikert
110   OH-14   David Joyce
-------------------------------- Likely R
111   NY-21   Elise Stefanik
112   WV-01   David McKinley
113   OH-15   Steve Stivers
114   AL-02   Martha Roby
115   WI-07   Sean Duffy
116   WV-02   Alex Mooney
--------------------------------- Safe R

Democrats:

1   MN-08   OPEN
------------------------- Lean R
2   MN-01   OPEN
------------------------- Tilt R
3   MN-07   Collin Peterson
----------------------------------- Tilt D
4   NV-03   OPEN
5   NH-01   OPEN
6   PA-17   Matt Cartwright
------------------------------------ Lean D
7   NJ-05   Josh Gottheimer
8   AZ-01   Tom O'Halleran
9   NV-04   OPEN
10   FL-07   Stephanie Murphy
11   IA-02   Dave Loebsack
12   NY-18   Sean Patrick Maloney
13   FL-13   Charlie Crist
14   NH-02   Ann Kuster
15   WI-03   Ron Kind
16   CA-07   Ami Bera
17   AZ-09   OPEN
------------------------- Likely D
18   NY-03   Tom Suozzi
19   CA-24   Salud Carbajal
20   IL-17   Cheri Bustos
-------------------------- Safe D

In total, I'm currently predicting a gain of 42 seats for Democrats, and a gain of 2 seats for Republicans, with a net gain of 40 seats for Democrats.

Democrats are already favored to gain 23 seats (!), so Republicans pretty much need to sweep all the Tossup races and most likely some of the Lean D seats to even stand a chance of holding the House. Definitely an uphill battle.

My ratings:

Safe R:

Any R seat not otherwise listed.

Likely R:

AK-AL (Young)
AL-02 (Roby)
AR-02 (Hill)
CA-04 (McClintock)
CA-22 (Nunes)
CA-42 (Calvert)
CO-03 (Tipton)
FL-06 (DeSantis)
FL-18 (Mast)
MI-01 (Bergman)
MI-06 (Upton)
MI-07 (Walberg)
NV-02 (Amodei)
NY-02 (King)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NY-27 (Collins)
NC-06 (Walker)
OH-10 (Turner)
OH-14 (Joyce)
OH-16 (Renacci)
PA-14 (OPEN) (FLIP)
SC-01 (Sanford)
SC-05 (Norman)
SD-AL (Noem)
VA-01 (Wittman)
WI-06 (Grothman)
TX-02 (Poe)
TX-03 (Johnson)
TX-06 (Barton)
TX-10 (McCaul)
TX-22 (Olson)
TX-24 (Marchant)
TX-31 (Carter)

Lean R:

AZ-06 (Schweikert)
AZ-08 (Lesko)
FL-16 (Buchanan)
FL-15 (Ross)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)
CA-50 (Hunter)
GA-06 (Handel)
GA-07 (Woodall)
MO-02 (Wagner)
MT-AL (Gianforte)
NM-02 (Pearce)
NY-01 (Zeldin)
NY-11 (Donovan)
NY-24 (Katko)
NC-02 (Holding)
NC-13 (Budd)
OH-12 (Balderson)
OK-05 (Russell)
PA-10 (Perry)
PA-16 (Kelly)
UT-04 (Love)
VA-05 (Garrett)
WA-03 (Herrera Beutler)
WA-05 (Rodgers)
WI-01 (Ryan)
TX-21 (Smith)

Tossup:

CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-45 (Walters)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
IA-01 (Blum)
IA-03 (Young)
IL-12 (Bost)
IL-13 (R. Davis)
IL-14 (Hultgren)
KS-02 (Jenkins)
KS-03 (Yoder)
KY-06 (Barr)
ME-02 (Poliquin)
MI-08 (Bishop)
MN-01 (Walz)
MN-08 (Nolan)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-03 (McArthur)
NY-19 (Faso)
NC-09 (Pittenger)
OH-01 (Chabot)
PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)
VA-02 (Taylor)
VA-07 (Brat)
WV-03 (Jenkins)
TX-32 (Sessions)

Lean D:

CA-10 (Denham) (FLIP)
CA-25 (Knight) (FLIP)
CA-39 (Royce) (FLIP)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher) (FLIP)
CO-06 (Coffman) (FLIP)
IL-06 (Roskam) (FLIP)
MI-11 (Trott) (FLIP)
MN-02 (Lewis) (FLIP)
MN-03 (Paulsen) (FLIP)
MN-07 (Peterson)
NJ-07 (Lance) (FLIP)
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) (FLIP)
NY-22 (Tenney) (FLIP)
WA-08 (Reichert) (FLIP)
TX-07 (Culberson) (FLIP)
TX-23 (Hurd) (FLIP)

Likely D:

AZ-01 (O'Halleran)
AZ-02 (McSally) (FLIP)
CA-07 (Bera)
CA-49 (Issa) (FLIP)
FL-07 (Murphy)
FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen) (FLIP)
NV-03 (Rosen)
NV-04 (Kihuen)
NJ-02 (LoBiondo) (FLIP)
NJ-05 (Gottheimer)
PA-07 (Dent) (FLIP)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (Rothfus/Lamb) (FLIP)
WI-03 (Kind)

Safe D:

PA-05 (Meehan) (FLIP)
PA-06 (Costello) (FLIP)
VA-10 (Comstock) (FLIP)

Any D seat not otherwise listed.

Likely R:
AK-AL (Young)
AZ-06 (Schweikert)
AZ-08 (Lesko)
CA-04 (McClintock)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-22 (Nunes)
FL-06 (DeSantis)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)
GA-06 (Handel)
GA-07 (Woodall)
IN-02 (Walorski)
IN-09 (Hollingsworth)
IA-04 (King)
KS-04 (Estes)
MI-02 (Huzienga)
NJ-04 (Smith)
NY-01 (Zeldin)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NY-27 (Collins)
NC-08 (Hudson)
ND-AL (Cramer)
OH-07 (Gibbs)
OH-10 (Turner)
OK-05 (Russell)
PA-14 (Lamb)
SD-AL (Noem)
TX-02 (Poe)
TX-21 (Smith)
TX-22 (Olson)
TX-31 (Carter)
VA-01 (Wittman)
WV-02 (Mooney)
WI-07 (Duffy)
WI-08 (Gallagher)

Lean R:
AR-02 (Hill)
CA-50 (Hunter)
CO-03 (Tipton)
FL-15 (Ross)
FL-16 (Buchanan)
FL-18 (Mast)
IL-13 (Davis)
IL-14 (Hultgren)
MI-01 (Bergman)
MI-06 (Upton)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MO-02 (Wagner)
NY-11 (Donovan)
NY-24 (Katko)
NC-02 (Holding)
NC-13 (Budd)
OH-12 (Balderson)
OH-14 (Joyce)
PA-01 (Fitzparick)
PA-10 (Perry)
PA-16 (Kelly)
SC-01 (Sanford)
UT-04 (Love)
VA-05 (Garrett)
WA-03 (Herrera Butler)
WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers)
WI-01 (Ryan)
WI-06 (Grothman)

Tossup:
CA-45 (Walters)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
IL-06 (Roskam)
IL-12 (Bost)
IA-03 (Young)
KS-02 (Jenkins)
KS-03 (Yoder)
KY-06 (Barr)
ME-02 (Poliquin)
MI-08 (Bishop)
MN-01 (Walz)
MN-03 (Paulsen)
MT-AL (Gianforte)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-03 (MacArthur)
NJ-07 (Lance)
NM-02 (Pearce)
NY-19 (Faso)
OH-01 (Chabot)
TX-07 (Culberson)
TX-23 (Hurd)
TX-32 (Sessions)
VA-07 (Brat)
WV-03 (Jenkins)

Lean D:
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-25 (Knight)
CA-39 (Royce)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
CO-06 (Coffman)
IA-01 (Blum)
MI-11 (Trott)
MN-02 (Lewis)
MN-08 (Nolan)
NY-22 (Tenney)
NC-09 (Pittenger)
PA-07 (Dent)
TX-32 (Sessions)
VA-02 (Taylor)
WA-08 (Reichert)

Likely D:
AZ-02 (McSally)
CA-49 (Issa)
CT-05 (Etsy)
FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen)
MN-07 (Peterson)
NV-03 (Rosen)
NV-04 (Kihuen)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen)
PA-06 (Costello)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (Rothfus v Lamb)
VA-10 (Comstock)

Safe D:
NJ-02 (LoBiondo)
PA-05 (Meehan)

Right now i am ready for one prediction ONLY: IF deciding factor will be the state of economy - Republicans will get good chances not only to preserve Senate majority, but House too. IF the main factor will be different (Trump himself, for example) - Democrats will have not only good chances in House races, but will,  at least, preserve their present position  in Senate.

Same as 2006, 30+ seats

CA-20, TX-01, and TX-25 are errors.

Mine's pretty much the same if you swap KS-02 and MI-08 for KY-06, MN-01, OH-01, and NY-19.

I won't attempt to do it by districts, but a Democratic gain 28 to 38 seats.  

Some things of note:

In 2018, far from being a disaster for the Democrats, was not a bad year, they gained 6 seats in the House.

In by-elections, Democrats gained 3 seats.

They could get 2/3 of the votes they lost since 2010, and probably get at least half back.  

There are five vacancies.  Totals are Democratic 193, Republican 237, vacancies 5.  I expect those to beak down 4D/1R.  (197 D/238 R)

My guess that the Democrats will get 230 seats, +/-5,  Republican getting around 205 +/-5.  It is a bit more likely to slide up for the Democrats.  About D gain of 37 seats, counting the vacancies.

If it is below 225 D, Pelosi will have problem. 

Off the Democrat's low point, 2014, they would be gaining 42 seats +/- 5

No one will be more surprised than me if the Republicans hold the House.

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I'm not ready to do a district-by-district prediction just yet, but it's a lot easier to get into the 40+ range than I thought. I think I said +47 in a prediction topic awhile ago and I think that's roughly what we're going to get. I'm thinking Democrats gain 45-50 seats, basically a mirror of the current House Majority. Obviously, that's a not a final prediction. We'll see how the remaining few weeks go, but I think the current district polling and overall environment is indicative of a tsunami not unlike 1994 or 2010.

If Dems win it will be 30 seats

As of 9/24/2018

Dems 251 - GOP 184
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No, it's probably 230-205 Dem😁

Between 205 and 230 for BOTH parties (most likely - between 210 and 225). A lot of factors may be decisive with very high number of close races - even wheather in different parts of US on ED...

228D-207R

With Tossup
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Without Tossup
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http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/Pp4L9xp

Lighter shade indicates pickup. Net Dems +35, 233-202

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+40 Dems

Dems 230-205
Dems will have 51 senators
Dems will have 25+ GOVS

As I stated before only 1 or 2 times have the House flipped without the Senate, and this election all three branches will have flipped.

My (likely) final prediction.

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For some reason CA-10 comes up as Safe Dem, when I had it as Lean Dem.

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Rankings

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/9pn6eWp

Pickups

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/OK7Xxrp

D+36
R+2

Net: D+34

Democrats: 229
Republicans: 206

Upset Watch

AK-AL
CA-21
CO-03
FL-15
IL-14
NE-02
WV-03
WI-06

With Tossup, Tilt, Lean, Likely, and Safe: (https://twitter.com/JGibsonDem/status/1059710422167764994)
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227 Democrats, 192 GOP, 16 Tossups [D+32]



Projections of who'll win: (https://twitter.com/JGibsonDem/status/1059710427008036864)
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241 Democrats, 194 GOP  [D+48]

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Funny how Democrats only carried 3 of the 12 sure gains in the OP while actually winning the house.