Talk Elections

#INSen watch: Luke Messer campaign announces $700K raised in Q1, $1.6M COH

Rep. Todd Rokita, R-4th, has taken a step toward launching a U.S. Senate bid by appointing a statewide campaign finance staff.

Rokita has named Dan Dumezich to chair the team. Dumezich, an attorney from Schererville, is a former treasurer of the Indiana Republican Party and a former state legislator who has worked on campaign finance teams for GOP presidential candidates Donald Trump, Mitt Romney and George W. Bush.

“There is no better political fundraiser in Indiana,” Rokita said in a news release.

Other members of Rokita's finance team include Jamie Weber and Dave Buskill, who have worked on Rokita's House campaigns, and Washington-based fundraisers Laura Van Hove, Jon Graham and Mike Gula.

Rokita is considering seeking the Republican nomination next year for the seat held by Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind. Rep.

An Indiana senator railed against Carrier Corp. for moving manufacturing jobs to Mexico last year, even as he profited from a family business that relies on Mexican labor to produce dye for ink pads, according to records reviewed by The Associated Press.

Joe Donnelly, considered one of the nation’s most vulnerable Democratic senators up for re-election next year, has long blasted free-trade policies for killing American jobs. He accused Carrier, an air conditioner and furnace maker, of exploiting $3-an-hour workers when it announced plans to wind down operations in Indiana and move to Mexico.

However, an arts and crafts business Donnelly’s family has owned for generations is capitalizing on some of the very trade policies — and low-paid foreign labor — the senator has denounced.

Only 38 percent of 600 adult Hoosiers surveyed for the Old National Bank/Ball State University 2017 Hoosier Survey recognized the names of Reps. Todd Rokita, R-Brownsburg, and Luke Messer, R-Shelbyville. [...]

The two have attacked each other early and often. But while the sparring has been covered by the media, the candidates haven't aired extensive television ads that would boost their profile.

“Clearly, we can expect Rokita and Messer to continue working to make their names known to the 60 percent of Hoosiers who say they haven’t heard of them,” said Charles Taylor, managing director of the Bowen Center for Public Affairs, which conducts the annual public opinion survey.

Donnelly, who served six years in the House before being elected to the Senate in 2012, was recognized by nearly 70 percent.

Among respondents who had heard of Donnelly, 32 percent said there was a “good chance” they would vote for him. For Rokita and Messer, the percentages are 27 and 21 respectively.  

The survey was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI) from Oct. 2 through Oct. 15. The margin of error for the name recognition question was 5.3 percentage points.

Full results of the survey will be released Nov. 9.

U.S. Senate candidate Luke Messer is paying for college students to attend a state Republican party straw poll event on Saturday — a move his opponents are criticizing as vote rigging.

But Messer's campaign and the state's Republican party chairman are defending the tactic.

Emails and social media exchanges obtained by IndyStar show that Messer campaign staffers offered to cover registration and hotel costs for college students to attend the Indiana Republican Party's Congress of Counties conference.

The event takes place Friday and Saturday and will include a straw poll featuring all six GOP candidates running in Indiana's contentious U.S. Senate primary. The state party describes the straw poll as "the first grassroots barometer to measure early support in this high-profile, statewide race that has national implications."

More than 500 Republicans are expected to attend.

HPI: You’ve got some new internal polling. What does it tell you?

 Braun: Early on … back in July it was rumored that I might run and Curtis Hill, and there was a poll that showed me at 1 to 2%, Curtis at 2 to 3%. All the polls showed Todd Rokita, due to being secretary of state, at about 27%, and Luke Messer at 20 to 21%. It was mostly name recognition. After I declared in early August, we did our first baseline poll in September. All that had changed had been the acrimony that was out there. That had started to gin up. It was mostly about Todd Rokita talking about Luke Messer not having a home in the state and his wife’s being on the payroll in Fishers. We found out because of that we had risen into the high single digits and they had basically stayed the same. We didn’t do anything else until early February. The biggest decision I’ve had to make in the whole campaign was with resources always being the driver.

 HPI: And what Rokita and Messer’s resources were.

 Braun: They were each at $2.5 million from their declared congressional accounts. That is an intimidating amount of money. In early February, we had been on the air in November, December and January and I had done well in fundraising early. I put some of my own skin in the game. In early February, we were at 24%, Todd Rokita was at 20% and Luke Messer at 14%. Obviously, Todd’s negative work against Luke had taken a toll. Our rising from 7% to 24% was taken out of each of their pots, and the undecideds started to commit. There were 42% undecided. The most recent poll taken, about a week ago, had me rising to 30%, Todd Rokita was at 21% and Luke Messer at 16%. And they both had been on the air a little bit, and his PAC was kicking in, but it showed unbelievable movement in my direction. It was better than what we thought we’d be. Our message is resonating. That early acrimony between the two of them set the stage for people not certain how to take it, disappointed it wasn’t more about what you’re going to do, what are your accomplishments, what are your ideas and that has kind of set the early dynamic. We came in, got the message out early, basically had the airspace to ourselves for four months.

HPI: I am shocked they let you fill that vacuum. How many gross rating points did you have?
 
Joshua Kelley (Braun campaign aide): About 3,000, depending when exactly they got up. We were on our fourth flight statewide by the time they went up.

 HPI: They let you in the game.

 Braun: You know why I think they did? Because their fourth quarter fundraising numbers were so
weak, about 40% off. I think they each ended up with about $450,000 and were hoping to be $700,000 or $750,000. That was a bad omen for the rest of the campaign. Because here’s what happened: It was known I was going to make a serious effort. It wasn’t going to be a whim. I was going to back it up with points where you can see this was going forward. Their contributions, even though they weren’t coming my way, weren’t coming their way.

My sneaking suspicion is one of two things: 1) as a quote-unquote proud outsider, Republicans may believe Braun could be a headache for McConnell; or 2) they've got damaging oppo on Braun that the Reps haven't yet found or they hear that Donnelly has but is saving for the general if Braun scores the nom.

And in the first independent polling in this race, Gravis Marketing (using what it described as an “online panel”) finds Mike Braun is leading with 26%, followed by Rokita at 16%, and Luke Messer at 13%. The likely voter sample for the Republican primary was conducted April 6-11 and has a 5.9% margin of error. Gravis is credible enough that it is included the Real Clear Politics polling composites. In head to heads with Sen. Joe Donnelly, Messer trails 46-36% and Rokita 50-36%. There was no head to head with Braun.
    
The perception of the final three weeks is that this is a race to be had by those with big checkbooks or a competent ground game. All three campaigns insist they have ground game strategies. Both Messer and Rokita have long ties with the GOP, with Messer serving as executive director of the Indiana Republican Party and Rokita winning two terms as secretary of state, though he has alienated himself with much of the party establishment.
    
Braun had been seen as an emerging front runner, particularly with his big TV advertising lead ($3 million to $2 million for Rokita and Messer) we revealed last week. But his latest “Swamp Brothers” ad that accuses Rokita as a “fraud” and Messer as a “liberal” will strain his credibility and could be a classic overreach.
    
The latest competitive TV ad report shows Braun preparing modest buys in Evansville, $22,142 and $3,084 over the final two weeks; $76,535 and $10,934 in Indianapolis; $27,133 and $3,883 in South Bend/Elkhart; and $15,043 and $2,149 in Terre Haute. Braun is spending $15,073 and $2,153 in the Chicago cable market.
    
Messer is making a final big push, spending $151,520 and $155,005 in the Indianapolis broadcast market over the final two weeks; $36,220 in each of the final two weeks in Louisville broadcast; $26,045 and $39,725 in the Fort Wayne market; and $20,680 and $35,035 in South Bend/Elkhart. Curiously, Messer has not advertised in the Evansville market.
   
A group allied with Messer, Hoosiers for Conservative Values, is spending $306,000 on negative ads against Braun in Fort Wayne, South Bend, Evansville and Terre Haute. The ad calls Braun “Tax Hike Mike,” saying he raised taxes 45 times, voted for the “biggest tax hike in history” and voted Democratic 16 years.
    
Rokita is making a $14,036 buy next week in the Indianapolis broadcast market, and $5,943 in Fort Wayne. Clearly, Rokita is getting out-gunned in the air war.
   
“Rokita is running out of money (best illustrated by this week’s ads), so is holding it right now if he even has some declining cash,” said Mark Souder a former congressman and current HPI columnist. “Braun may think he has a lead, plus has to be exceeding is spending estimates, or the combination.  Messer was sitting on his cash – like he had it won and was waiting for the general.  He is spending too late, and with minimally effective ads. However, he has more big donors who suddenly could pump in some soft money. If Rokita can’t pump it up when there are 10 days left and compete, it could become a three-way race or a romp for Braun.”
   
“Messer seems to have his strategy anchored on the Indy market – once again, that is why the Delph poll is so interesting,” Souder added, making reference to a poll in State Sen. Mike Delph’s Senate district that showed Rokita with a lead. Souder added, “The intensity against Rokita is rather amazing. But that has been true ever since he got into politics. Rokita could be the last grassroots guy with a chance to win statewide.  
    
And at this writing, only Messer has released his FEC first quarter, reporting $389,000 with $1.86 million cash on hand. Some of that can’t be spent until the fall. The perception on that front is that Rokita and Messer continue to languish on the money front and Braun is simply awaiting their hauls in order to make a corresponding final media purchase.

As we enter the last weeks of this campaign, here are the campaign strategies that have increasingly become apparent:

1.) Braun had a clear media strategy and he has implemented it almost flawlessly.  Outsider, businessman, cardboard cutout opponents who are non-practicing lawyers. He developed the foundation while the others were asleep, then attacked with humor. When they counterattacked, he responded with a nice family ad making them look negative (Braun is controlling the rhythm of this race). He ignored the facts that he was a long-time Democrat and officeholder. He has spent lots of money. Lots and lots of money.

2.) Rokita’s approach has been less disciplined (ironic for a long-time control freak), but the net result still is consistent. Be Trump Jr., appeal to conservatives, run around the state like there is a scorecard somewhere of hands shaken and counties covered. Take a weakness — established Republican leaders dislike him intensely — and turn it into a strength. Bait them, in fact. Raise enough money to be in the race, then punch and keep punching because some will land. It has worked well for both him and Trump in Indiana. Make America Great Again.

3.) Messer had a strategy most effective to become a state chairman, Republican conference chairman, maybe win a convention, and something that could, for example, get you picked as the Fishers city attorney while living in Washington. And be a good congressman, which tends to get lost in politics today. To be completely fair, he’s a responsible leader in a world that doesn’t value that much right now. In other words, he’s a weak third if there is much of a vote.

Monday, April 23, 2018 10:01 AM
 
By BRIAN A. HOWEY, in Southport
 
1. Rokita, Braun poles apart on money
 
Here are your Monday power lunch talking points: With Todd Rokita posting an underwhelming $425,532 in the first quarter, and Mike Braun’s report showing $5.449 million in loans he made to his Republican U.S. Senate campaign, it’s clear what is driving the final TV in this race: Money and personal wealth. Luke Messer raised just $389,000 for the quarter and as they did on prior FEC reports, Messer and Rokita headed into the final five weeks with close to the same amount of cash, $1.865 million for Rokita and $1.86 million for Messer. GOP sources tell us that more than 10% of the Rokita and Messer cash won’t be available to the fall campaign, if they survive. Braun reported $2.42 million cash on hand, but he is part of the “green wave” of self-funders running in Indiana this cycle. We figured he was awaiting the Rokita and Messer hauls before upgrading modest TV buys in the final weeks. And there is still plenty of gross rating points to buy.
 
Howey Politics Indiana still has this race as a “Tossup” with, perhaps, a slight edge to Braun  because he has more resources, though his ground game is questionable. The Gravis Marketing Poll last week showed Braun leading with 26%, Rokita at 16% and Messer at 13%. That leaves a huge number of undecideds, some of whom will be watching the Allen County Republican Party debate at 7 tonight in Fort Wayne. It will be the first debate since Messer’s two DUIs  surfaced and Rokita was rebuked by President Trump’s reelection campaign for a perceived endorsement on yard signs. The two C-Men will try to paint Braun as “Mexico Mike” who votes Democratic and loves to raise taxes. This is a very, very fluid primary race.
 
2. Where you can watch the INSen debate
 
The Republican Senate debate will also be broadcast on a network of radio stations, with Fort Wayne’s WOWO as the originating station. WOWO’s Pat Miller will be the debate moderator. The broadcasters include TV stations WPTA in Fort Wayne, WNDU and WNIT in South Bend, WYIN in Merrillville, WLFY in Lafayette and WTHR in Indianapolis, and radio stations WOWO in Fort Wayne, WFBM in Muncie and WEOA in Evansville. The final debate will be at 7 p.m. April 30, with Todd Rokita changing his mind and joining his two rivals in the Indiana Debate Commission event.

Horse Race: An utterly fluid Republican U.S. Senate finish

Thursday, April 26, 2018 11:39 AM
 
By BRIAN A. HOWEY
   
INDIANAPOLIS – The Republican U.S. Senate primary heads into its final fortnight as a “tossup,” mostly because the scant polling available signals a large pool, between 30 and 40%, of undecided voters.
   
Anecdotally, we see a light turnout, in part because of the lack of enthusiasm for President Trump while Luke Messer, Mike Braun and Todd Rokita continue to emphatically embrace him. This should be the homestretch of the campaign where they burnish key talking points, like Todd Young did in his race against Marlin Stutzman in 2016. Young repeatedly mentioned he was a Marine in his final debates to the point of some ridicule. But news coverage picked up this angle, achieving audience saturation of that portion of Young’s resume.
   
Of the current field, Braun appears to have a slight edge because his “outsider businessman” branding comes as close to Young’s consistent Marine Corps branding effort. In first quarter FEC filings, Braun has loaned his campaign an unprecedented (for Indiana) $5.5 million, has $2.42 million cash on hand, and has the ability to write more checks to protect his already seismic investment.
   
Rokita reported $425,532 during the first quarter and $1.865 million cash on hand, while Messer reported $389,000 with $1.86 million cash on hand. But the two congressmen can’t spend all of that, as some of it is general election money. Of the two, Rokita’s late media buys have been light, suggesting he faces a real cash crunch. Braun is likely to up his totals even further in the final week. The notion that he’s already invested $5.5 million means he’s likely to protect that investment with another $1 million or $2 million to achieve victory. Messer and Rokita simply don’t have the same deep pockets.
      
In the latest competitive TV ad buy data set, Messer has purchased 306 gross rating points in Fort Wayne broadcast ($26,045), 674 points in Indianapolis ($151,005), 302 points in Louisville ($36,220); and 276 in South Bend/Elkhart ($20,680) for the week of April 24-30. For the final week, Messer has 467 points in Fort Wayne ($39,725), 674 points in Indinapolis ($155,005), 302 points in Louisville ($36,220) and 467 in South Bend/Elkhart ($36,035.
   
Rokita has purchased 5,967 gross rating points in broadcast TV this week, including 919 points in Indianapolis ($117,754), 670 points in South Bend/Elkhart ($26,886), 1,275 in Fort Wayne ($47,574) and 730 in Terre Haute ($12,068). For the final week, Rokita’s buy dwindles to just 612 GRP, with 185 points in Fort Wayne ($6,939), 136 in Indianapolis ($17,286) and less than $10,000 in three other markets. Rokita has purchased no radio in the final two weeks. Clearly, Rokita’s campaign is running on fumes.
   
However, the Rokita campaign released a children’s book aimed at Messer on Wednesday.
   
Braun’s final week is far off from previous weeks. He has purchased just 786 points in seven markets, with the biggest $13,000 in Indianapolis broadcast and $5,000 in Fort Wayne.
   
Worth noting is that the campaigns may be buying by the day in the final weeks, keeping their cards close to the vest. The fact that Braun’s buy is currently light may be because he realizes people are deciding late, and could be poised to bury the C-Men with a late buy, perhaps day by day.
   
So why isn’t this “Leans Braun” in HPI Horse Race parlance? Because while Braun will be traveling with his Messer and Rokita cardboard cutouts across the state in the final days, building on the most successful TV ad of the 2018 cycle nationwide, he doesn’t appear to have a corresponding ground game. We believe that both Messer and Rokita have more ground resources.
   
Messer has gotten aggressive with his TV ads against Braun, trying to portray the Jasper businessman as a tax-hiker and career politician. While Braun may have far more financial resources, we’re not sure how durable his key attributes will be when they come under fire. The perceptions of him are likely soft and potentially could pop under a withering line of attack.
   
And what is Messer’s closing argument? During Monday night’s debate, the refrain that kept popping up was a mealy-mouthed “I am who I say I am.” That is not nearly as convincing an argument as Todd Young’s “Semper Fi” Marine persona.
   
The final weeks of the campaign have thrown curve balls at both the C-men. For Messer, it was the IndyStar’s reporting of his two DUIs coming before he replaced State Rep. Roland Stine, who was killed by a drunk driver. That’s a messy story line. Rokita attempted to make this an issue at the Fort Wayne debate, while Messer’s retort was, “So many attacks and so little time.”
   
Messer denied that he kept his DUI arrests quiet. “We’re going to continue to be clear about what occurred. Again, I’m very sorry about what occurred 23 and 28 years ago,” Messer told WIBC, saying that information of his arrests was made public in the Shelbyville News nearly a decade ago. “Other campaigns have tried to use this unsuccessfully in the past and I think this is going to be unsuccessful, too. Clearly, the folks I’m running against would rather talk about my past than talk about our state’s future.”
   
Having to go there is not a good way to enter the homestretch.
   
Rokita’s embarrassment was the rebuke from President Trump’s reelection campaign to cease and desist using yard signs proclaiming the endorsement of “Trump/Pence 2016 leadership team” (See related article on page 7).  Messer gigged Rokita on Monday night for that the controversy, saying, “Mr. Rokita runs around the state in a MAGA hat and the Trump campaign has asked him to take his yard signs down.” But a light TV audience watched that debate and it hardly resulted in headlines that can secure votes.
   
Rokita may have other troubles brewing. WIBC talk host Rob Kendall has been relentless of his criticism of Rokita after the congressman initially said he would duck two debates. Kendall, who appears on several WIBC shows, is suggesting that Rokita may have been using congressional office personnel on his campaign. Kendall tweeted, “Odd that Nathan Brand, the very terrible spokesperson for@ToddRokitaIN CAMPAIGN was on the GOVERNMENT payroll as of December 31. Interesting, considering I was getting CAMPAIGN emails with his name on them during this time.”
   
Kendall pointed out that Brand was receiving $2,666 in salary during the pay period of Dec. 11-31, 2017. Over the weekend, Kendall tweeted: “Will someone please tell this moron that actual ‘Hoosier Trumpers’ want nothing to do with @ToddRokitaIN because a.) he’s a disingenuous windbag and b.) we don’t want Trump having to work with @SenDonnelly for 6 more years! “
   
That’s the kind of coverage Rokita is getting on conservative talk radio down the homestretch.
   
The $5 million Braun has loaned his campaign along with his paid media advantage suggests he’s in the best position to pull this off. A highly informed and reliable 3rd CD source tells HPI that Braun had a lead in polling in State Sen. Travis Holdman’s SD19. The source added, “I’ve got to think that’s indicative of the 3rd District.”
   
The notion that Braun is running strong in Northeast Indiana corresponds with the 8,043 gross rating points he had in the Fort Wayne broadcast market as of last week, compared to 1,905 for Messer and 1,824 for Rokita. Braun has also spent $74,185 on Fort Wayne radio compared to $26,565 for Rokita and $4,375 for Messer.
   
When you add up the money advantage, the access to more resources that Messer and Rokita don’t have, a more consistent brand message, and his clear advantage in gross rating points, the tell tales suggest Braun is in the best position to win this primary.
   
However, his lack of a ground game, light early voting and the large pool of undecided voters suggest that Braun is still away off from locking this up. Republican Primary Horse Race Status: Tossup.

Mark Souder: A choice between 2 cardboard cutouts and a Democrat

   BY: MARK SOUDER

Thursday, April 26, 2018 9:44 AM

FORT WAYNE – The intense, bitter Indiana Republican primary for the United States Senate nomination has apparently come down to a choice between one of the cardboard cutouts or a Democrat.
   
Or perhaps one of the Swamp Brothers.
   
Given these choices, combined with Trump successfully dominating everyone’s daily lives and general lack of interest in any other politics, it is not surprising that in spite of being inundated with advertising of all types, an extraordinary number of likely voters remain undecided. Furthermore, I personally think the undecided vote is understated. There is a new type of undecided – the weekly switcher. From people I talk to, and as indicated by erratic polling, voters are still going back and forth among the options.
   
One reason is that voters believe that politicians won’t tell the truth about themselves and the media is so biased that it is untrustworthy. Only the negative ads tell the truth and thus everybody must be terrible.
   
First let’s discuss the cardboard cutouts. Unfortunately for them, the two congressmen are about the same age, look vaguely similar, went to Wabash College, have blonde wives and nice families, and nearly identical voting records. It is no shock that Braun’s cardboard cutouts ad worked as a concept.
   
The two congressmen have reinforced that image, not with their votes in Congress, but by the behavior of their campaigns. They made it personal, not policy-based. The leaks about Rokita possibly misusing the Republican database, presumably from Messer supporters, should have been resolved or dropped long before now. The charges perhaps give some insight into character the of both campaigns, as does the attempt to smear Rokita with a leaked memo about his tendency to control details.
   
Similarly, debating Luke Messer’s long ago DUIs, and his allegedly concealing one before a nominating caucus that put him in office for the first time, also potentially gives an insight into the character of both campaigns.  “These guys,” as Mike Braun personally calls them, are far too often acting like the cardboard cutouts or swamp creatures they are alleged to be.
   
Then there is the dust-up about Rokita’s Trump-Pence signs. They are designed to look like an endorsement by Trump-Pence though they correctly say the endorsement is by his Indiana campaign leaders, though in small print that you may or may not notice. Trump’s campaign, for a variety of reasons that certainly included some strong-arming from the other campaigns, said they should be removed. Rokita’s campaign responded with a television ad that attempted to clarify who actually made the endorsement. That ad has been reinforced by Messer’s highlighting it. The more they complain, to this point, the more it reminds voters that the Indiana Trump leaders back Rokita.
   
While it was not appropriate to mislead that deliberately, that tactic is being used by Messer as well. In the debate, for example, Messer slyly said that he coached his son’s basketball team like other Hoosier dads. Except he’s a Virginia dad coaching Virginia players, which is a deliberate attempt to mislead. And it is so much like Evan Bayh shooting hoops with his Virginia boys that it is an eerie Indiana reminder of a losing campaign. The point here is that Messer often does exactly the same things as Rokita, only in a more polished way. Rokita uses boxing gloves and “Make America Great Again” baseball caps when he does it.
   
Every sign indicates that Braun is taking away votes from both of them. The larger the turnout, the better for Braun.  Braun, in fact, has the best chance for a sizeable victory. But then there is the Democrat thing.
   
Braun has offered no compelling reason for his party switch. It wasn’t about Donald Trump because Braun switched parties to run for the state legislature. He won’t answer whether he voted for Obama or Hillary. He associated himself with the gun control, pro-abortion, big government party for his entire life before he ran for the General Assembly.  Thus, many Republicans decide to vote for Braun, then pause. When Braun says that Rokita and Messer vote the same way 95% of the time, as if that is bad, is he saying that his support of conservative Republican principles would be less than 95%?  Is he saying that he will break ranks in a potentially 50-50 split Senate more often? On what issues will he defy the president, who has been supported on almost every vote by Rokita and Messer?
   
Braun’s gimmick, equally as deceptive as anything Rokita or Messer has done or said, is to act like any one individual is going to change the fundamental votes. And picking a couple of issues such as fast track (which actually is what gives the president the authority to do what Braun says he wants to give the president, which apparently Braun doesn’t understand) or the budget (which Trump supported and then gave himself political cover by whining about it, something that apparently Braun doesn’t understand either) is not the point.
   
There are at least 300 votes per year. Will Braun support the president and the GOP 95% of the time and become, by his definition, a Swamp Brother or a cardboard twin, or not? If we want a bipartisan senator who votes with Democrats, we already have Joe Donnelly.
   
This dilemma – “I want change but not another Democrat who says he agrees with me but doesn’t” – is why this race is likely to remain fluid until the end.

Souder is a former Republican congressman from Indiana.

With a little more than a week to go before the May primary, Indiana Secretary of State Connie Lawson says about 88,000 Hoosiers have cast an early ballot.

As of this past Sunday, 87,649 Hoosiers have voted early either in person or by mail.

A breakdown shows more than 49,000 Republicans have cast an early ballot and 38,000 Hoosiers took a Democratic ballot.

The six counties with the most early votes cast are below…

Lake (Gary, Hammond, East Chicago) – 6,030
Marion (Indianapolis) – 5,882
Allen (Fort Wayne) – 3,439
Hamilton (Indianapolis suburb) – 3,422
Hendricks (Indianapolis suburb) – 3,211
St. Joseph (South Bend, Mishawaka) – 3,139

The primary is May 8.

3. Multiple Gregg sightings
 
Right now there is a gaping void in the 2020 gubernatorial race. Gov. Eric Holcomb is riding high with record employment and the big Infosys gem, with Amazon’s HQ2 potentially on the horizon. There is not an obvious Democratic contender. Yet we keep seeing 2012 and 2016 Democratic nominee John Gregg popping up around the state. Last week he was in Richmond. On Monday he was in Crawfordsville honoring the legendary Claude Johnson. On April 12 he was in Terre Haute for William Tanoos’ 8th CD campaign kickoff. He’s endorsed Kerry Forestal for Marion County sheriff. On Sunday, he was there for the opening of J.D. Ford’s SD29 headquarters. Gregg introduced Ford, saying, “JD Ford is in this for all the right reasons and all the right issues. He cares about this area, the community, and about service. He is a candidate who wants to serve our community.” When we interviewed Democratic Chairman John Zody last winter, he mentioned that whoever would be running for governor in 2020 should be out working for Democratic candidates in 2018. Gregg and his LG nominee Christina Hale appear to be the only ones doing that.

1. U.S. Sen. Undecided
 
Here are your Tuesday power lunch talking points: So, Hoosiers, are you ready for Romeo Langford and U.S. Sen. Undecided? Both dominated the Tuesday evening news cycle, with Mr. Basketball announcing he was headed for Bloomington while Todd Rokita and Luke Messer both acknowledged that “undecideds” are leading the Republican trio  in, presumably, internal polling. Rokita told Howey Politics Indiana prior to the debate that the number of undecideds was in the 40% range. Messer said after the debate, “The leader of this race may be the undecideds. We've got the best grass roots campaign by a lot. We're just trying to get this over the finish line."
 
In the nearly quarter a century Howey Politics Indiana  has been publishing, we’ve never seen a race this high up the food chain with such a massive number of voters who have yet to make a decision. When we caught up with Rex Early at the Antelope Club Monday, he said that scores of his cronies at the White River Yacht Club are asking for guidance (Rex is for Rokita). Normally in a senatorial, gubernatorial or congressional race, a week out the campaigns are scrambling for the final 2 to 5%. So this is epic volatility on an unprecedented scale.
 
Conventional wisdom would make one believe this is Mike Braun’s race to lose since he has loaned, spent and gotten the most gross rating points thus far. But after $6 million, Braun hasn’t closed the deal. So we head into Tuesday’s election using the parlance of the pilot Rokita: This is visual flight rules. The gauges are haywire.
 
2. Losers skip the presser?
 
For the first time in the Indiana Debate Commission’s decade of existence, candidates ditched the after-debate presser. Only Luke Messer showed up, with Todd Rokita and Mike Braun figuring that follow ups from the press were too dangerous  to risk in such a volatile scenario. "It seems like there should be some kind of factual indicator of who won and I stand before you in the media talking about the debate,” Messer said. “I guess I won because I'm the only one willing to take questions.” Duly noted.

As for the bolded part, the fact is, many who tout themselves as businessmen do get things done... at the expense of their employees. Often businesses cut corners for the sake of making more profit with little regard for their workers. I'm tired of them being seen as good businessmen because their company ended up with a strong bottom line.

Former state Rep. Mike Braun, the GOP nominee, led Donnelly, 50-42 percent in the 3rd Congressional District, according to a survey of 401 likely voters conducted May 29-31 by WPAi for GOP Rep. Jim Banks.

While that might not sound like good news for the senator, it’s remarkably similar to his marks in 2012, when he lost the 3rd District to state Treasurer Richard Mourdock 53-40 percent (according to Daily Kos Elections) but won statewide 50-44 percent. In 2008, President Barack Obama received 43 percent in the Fort Wayne-anchored seat and won narrowly statewide.