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Title: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 18, 2017, 12:05:47 PM The other thread seems to have dissapeared (?) but today was quite important as the final candidates to have obtained 500 signatures have been declared; there will be 11 candidates standing in the first round (with numbers of signatures_:
ARTHAUD Nathalie 637 ASSELINEAU François 587 CHEMINADE Jacques 528 DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas 707 FILLON François 3635 HAMON Benoît 2039 LASSALLE Jean 708 LE PEN Marine 627 MACRON Emmanuel 1829 MELENCHON Jean-Luc 805 POUTOU Philippe 573 click here (https://presidentielle2017.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/les-parrainages/parrainages-par-candidat/) Ouest France also has a pretty cool map where you can see where each candidate got their signature here (http://www.ouest-france.fr/elections/presidentielle/carte-presidentielle-d-ou-viennent-les-parrainages-des-candidats-4865656) feel free to delete this if the old thread is about to make a comeback... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on March 18, 2017, 01:33:20 PM Did someone delete the main thread or what ?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DavidB. on March 18, 2017, 02:26:37 PM Haha, now I know how I lost about 50 posts overnight.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on March 18, 2017, 02:46:00 PM I was not active at the time that I guess the thread vanished - sometime quite late last night - so I'm at a loss as to what happened to it.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 18, 2017, 02:48:48 PM I was not active at the time that I guess the thread vanished - sometime quite late last night - so I'm at a loss as to what happened to it. [hint]Its a good opportunity to do a rundown of the candidates on the front page of this thread [/hint] Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on March 18, 2017, 02:49:30 PM Well, who was the creator of the former thread?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on March 18, 2017, 05:40:47 PM I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 18, 2017, 05:43:21 PM ...well, that is weird.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 18, 2017, 05:46:37 PM Bizarre.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 18, 2017, 05:53:18 PM I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened. https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20170108204647/https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?PHPSESSID=867b6895b62569a2c676d095a1d165cc&board=12.0 yes, you definitely were OP. This is definitely a fault of the forum though - it's happened before where good discussion is permanently lost because of an accidental delete by mods or an OP. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 18, 2017, 05:56:06 PM I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened. https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20170108204647/https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?PHPSESSID=867b6895b62569a2c676d095a1d165cc&board=12.0 yes, you definitely were OP. This is definitely a fault of the forum though - it's happened before where good discussion is permanently lost because of an accidental delete by mods or an OP. All those posts argung about whether Macron is left wing or not, just dissapeared :( Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 18, 2017, 05:57:12 PM I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened. https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20170108204647/https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?PHPSESSID=867b6895b62569a2c676d095a1d165cc&board=12.0 yes, you definitely were OP. This is definitely a fault of the forum though - it's happened before where good discussion is permanently lost because of an accidental delete by mods or an OP. All those posts argung about whether Macron is left wing or not, just dissapeared :( I was quite proud of a few of mine. :( Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: rob in cal on March 18, 2017, 06:28:51 PM Well, obviously the culprit is Russian hacking.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: kyc0705 on March 18, 2017, 06:33:01 PM I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened. https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20170108204647/https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?PHPSESSID=867b6895b62569a2c676d095a1d165cc&board=12.0 yes, you definitely were OP. This is definitely a fault of the forum though - it's happened before where good discussion is permanently lost because of an accidental delete by mods or an OP. All those posts argung about whether Macron is left wing or not, just dissapeared :( Does... does this mean we’re going to have that whole discussion over again? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Figueira on March 19, 2017, 12:15:46 AM So, how likely is it that Macron is the ultimate winner?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 19, 2017, 01:05:03 AM If you look in the last two presidential election the polls around the 20th March were very close to the actual result.
A few example: 2012 (Ifop, 20th March): Hollande 28%, Sarkozy 27.5%, Le Pen 17,5% (second round: Hollande 54%). That was pretty close to the actual result 2007 (Ipsos, 22nd March): Sarkozy 30.5%, Royal 25.5%, Bayrou 18.5% (second round: Sarkozy 53%). Very close to the actual result Of course 2002 is a perfect counterexample. Now this election is particular: -Abstention is, at this day, projected to be massive -Many people who will vote are quite undecided (around 40% could change their minds) -For the first time there will be 3 debates before the first round (the first is tomorrow). The debates could mobilize more people to vote and change the dynamics of the race. Macron's voters were the most undecided voters a few weeks ago, that's no longer the case, but it's still between 50%-40% of them who could change their votes. That's why a poll yesterday indicated that Macron could be as low as 13.5% but as high as 35% in the first round. For me I think that the probabilities of a Macron victory are around 60% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 19, 2017, 04:04:08 AM The TV set for tomorrow's debate
() Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on March 19, 2017, 08:10:50 AM People keep repeating that 40% of Macron voters could still change their minds. That may be true in theory and in response to a polling question. But in reality if a "soft Macron" voters actually did have second thoughts about Macron, where would they go? Who would they switch to? LePen? I don't think so...Fillon? Seems unlikely at this stage...I suppose some could drift back to Hamon...but apart from that where would they go?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lord Halifax on March 19, 2017, 08:54:32 AM People keep repeating that 40% of Macron voters could still change their minds. That may be true in theory and in response to a polling question. But in reality if a "soft Macron" voters actually did have second thoughts about Macron, where would they go? Who would they switch to? LePen? I don't think so...Fillon? Seems unlikely at this stage...I suppose some could drift back to Hamon...but apart from that where would they go? They could simply abstain. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on March 19, 2017, 09:00:17 AM Macron's voters tend to be more educated and politically aware...I can't see them abstaining en masse. And "how likely are you to change your mind about who to vote for?" Is a very different question from "how likely are you to cast a vote at all?"
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 19, 2017, 09:11:29 AM On the old thread (RIP) there was a bit of discussion about the way young people were voting, and whether (or not), they were more inclined to vote FN than the rest of the population.
IFOP have now actually done (http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/3693-1-study_file.pdf) some polling specifically of 18-25 year olds. Key points are on pages 12 (first round) and page 15-16 (second round), but: In the first round Le Pen - 29% (2.5% better than all of France) Macron - 28% (3% better) Hamon - 15% (1% better) Mélenchon - 14.5% (3% better) Fillon - 11% (8% worse) In the second round Macron - 63% Le Pen - 37% Macron does 2.5% better than the whole of France. Out of a bunch of second round options, Mélenchon actually beats Le Pen 64-36; and Fillon by only 53-47. So in conclusion, younger voters seem slightly more inclined to support Le Pen; but significantly more inclined to support the two left wing and one alleged left wing candidates. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mgop on March 19, 2017, 09:23:20 AM i really can't see 63-37 in second round. most of fillon supporters will probably vote for le pen in the runoff and many of melanchon also.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy on March 19, 2017, 09:32:53 AM i really can't see 63-37 in second round. most of fillon supporters will probably vote for le pen in the runoff and many of melanchon also. According to the last Ifop poll 43% of Melenchon voters will abstain, or blank vote on the second round, 45% will vote for Macron and only 13% would vote for Le Pen, and only 31% of Fillon voters will vote for Le Pen Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mgop on March 19, 2017, 09:41:46 AM i really can't see 63-37 in second round. most of fillon supporters will probably vote for le pen in the runoff and many of melanchon also. According to the last Ifop poll 43% of Melenchon voters will abstain, or blank vote on the second round, 45% will vote for Macron and only 13% would vote for Le Pen, and only 31% of Fillon voters will vote for Le Pen but if this negative campaign against fillon continues, more of his supporters will vote for le pen. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 19, 2017, 09:42:50 AM Also if 40% of Macron's voters could change their minds that's because he is polling high. It's more easy for Fillon to have a strong electorate when he is only at 19%.
Macron could lose some votes to Hamon and maybe Fillon, he could still win more from Hamon, 40% of Hamon's voters could also change their minds. i really can't see 63-37 in second round. most of fillon supporters will probably vote for le pen in the runoff and many of melanchon also. Odoxa poll, for France 2 Macron: 26.5% (-0.5 since March 3rd) Le Pen: 26% (+0.5) Fillon: 19% (=) Hamon: 12.5% (-1.5) Mélenchon: 10.5% (+0.5) Second round Macron 64% (+3), Le Pen 36% Fillon 57% (-0.5), Le Pen 43% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 19, 2017, 12:33:29 PM Kantar-Sofres poll for Le Figaro (http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2017/03/19/01002-20170319ARTFIG00132-sondage-le-duel-macron-le-pen-s-installe-au-premier-tour.php)
Macron: 26% (+1, since March 4th) Le Pen: 26% (=) Fillon: 17% (=) Hamon: 12% (-4) Mélenchon: 12% (=) A 9-points gap between Fillon and a qualification for the runoff must be a record. Only OpinionWay has Fillon at 20% now. Hamon drops in every poll, in danger to go behind Mélenchon. The candidate would be a good president Macron: Yes 47%, No 44% Fillon: Yes 29%, No 64% Le Pen: Yes 29%, No 65% Hamon: Yes 28%, No 63% Mélenchon: Yes 24%, No 69% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 19, 2017, 12:50:55 PM Wow, surprising people have very strong negative opinions about Hamon. Also suffixing that Macron is the only candidate above 30%.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 19, 2017, 12:55:15 PM without a major scandal, it would be a polling mistake MUCH bigger than brexit/trump if macron wouldn't make it to the second round at this point.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 19, 2017, 01:22:18 PM I'm becoming resigned to FBM at this point. At least it won't be Nepotistic Thatcher Wannabe. Then again, I was "resigned" to Hillary last October...
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: swl on March 19, 2017, 02:08:14 PM Hamon is the less visible of the big candidates. I am not sure I heard of him a single time since he won the primary. At least Melenchon managed to gain some attention thanks to his mass meetings and rallies. This will probably change though with the beginning of the official campaign, debates and the obligation of balanced media time.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 19, 2017, 02:26:56 PM According to Le Monde (http://abonnes.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/visuel/2017/03/07/sondages-parrainages-meetings-temps-de-parole-quatre-indicateurs-pour-suivre-la-campagne-presidentielle_5090550_4355770.html) speaking time since February 1st :
Fillon: 197 hours Hamon: 142 hours Macron: 127 hours Le Pen: 111 hours Mélenchon: 65 hours If you missed him it's probably bad luck! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 19, 2017, 02:40:06 PM Is this just the time the candidates themselves have spoken, or does it include the time during which the media has talked about the candidates? FBM and Panzergirl ought to do a lot better on the latter metric.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 19, 2017, 02:46:58 PM It's the speaking time of the candidate and its supporters.
For the total amount (candidate, supporters, and media conversation): Fillon: 476 hours Macron: 266 hours Hamon: 209 hours Le Pen: 207 hours Mélenchon: 90 hours Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 19, 2017, 02:58:38 PM So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's:
279 Thatcherboy 139 FBM 96 Panzergirl 67 Hamon 25 Mélenchon In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists." Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: RogueBeaver on March 19, 2017, 03:11:56 PM Fillon & FBM downplaying the debate. (http://lelab.europe1.fr/pour-macron-et-fillon-le-premier-grand-debat-tele-de-la-presidentielle-naura-pas-dinfluence-3006530)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on March 19, 2017, 03:18:28 PM So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's: 279 Thatcherboy 139 FBM 96 Panzergirl 67 Hamon 25 Mélenchon In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists." You can't just put everything in the media's basket. A candidate also has a responsibility for his visibility. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 19, 2017, 03:20:49 PM So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's: 279 Thatcherboy 139 FBM 96 Panzergirl 67 Hamon 25 Mélenchon In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists." You can't just put everything in the media's basket. A candidate also has a responsibility for his visibility. How so? Candidates are doing all they can to win, and they have an interest in getting visibility, so it's not like they'd deliberately choose to avoid it when they have a chance to get it. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 19, 2017, 03:21:51 PM So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's: 279 Thatcherboy 139 FBM 96 Panzergirl 67 Hamon 25 Mélenchon In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists." So except for Fillon those numbers seems fair to me (and remember that Hamon spent the whole month of February out of the campaign trail to work on an alliance with Jadot) The candidates will have an equal speaking time on the 10th April. Fillon & FBM downplaying the debate. (http://lelab.europe1.fr/pour-macron-et-fillon-le-premier-grand-debat-tele-de-la-presidentielle-naura-pas-dinfluence-3006530) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on March 19, 2017, 03:53:35 PM So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's: 279 Thatcherboy 139 FBM 96 Panzergirl 67 Hamon 25 Mélenchon In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists." You can't just put everything in the media's basket. A candidate also has a responsibility for his visibility. How so? Candidates are doing all they can to win, and they have an interest in getting visibility, so it's not like they'd deliberately choose to avoid it when they have a chance to get it. Frankly, I don't have the impression that Hamon is doing everything he can to win, but rather the opposite. He may in fact be consciously taking a low profile because he knows he is going to lose and would himself prefer Macron to Fillon/Le Pen. Hamon is not Melenchon, who would like to see right-wingers burn the world to the ground so that the left (and he personally) can triumph, and ultimately is aware that his candidacy is dead in the water unless something outside of both candidates' control (or at least definitely outside of Hamon's control; Macron could screw up epically) happens to Macron. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 20, 2017, 12:06:55 PM Last polls before the debate
Trackings OpinionWay Le Pen: 27% (-1) Macron: 23% (-2) Fillon: 18% (-2) Hamon: 13% (+1) Mélenchon: 12% (+1) Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40% Ifop Le Pen: 26% (-0.5) Macron: 25% (-1) Fillon: 18% (=) Hamon: 12.5% (=) Mélenchon: 11.5% (+1) Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40% Elabe Macron: 25.5% (=, March 6th) Le Pen: 25% (-1) Fillon: 17.5% (-1.5) Hamon: 13.5% (=) Mélenchon: 13% (+1) Second round: Macron 63%, Le Pen 37% Polls by region (http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/carte-presidentielle-decouvrez-qui-arrive-en-tete-des-intentions-de-vote-dans-votre-region-a-un-mois-du-scrutin_2106088.html) Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre. Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on March 20, 2017, 12:10:01 PM Polls by region (http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/carte-presidentielle-decouvrez-qui-arrive-en-tete-des-intentions-de-vote-dans-votre-region-a-un-mois-du-scrutin_2106088.html) Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre. Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round) Where do you see the 2nd round numbers by region ? I only see 1st round results ... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on March 20, 2017, 12:10:43 PM Why is PACA so right-wing?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: kyc0705 on March 20, 2017, 12:11:59 PM So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's: I misread this as "indecent exposure" and got really scared. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 20, 2017, 12:16:49 PM Polls by region (http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/carte-presidentielle-decouvrez-qui-arrive-en-tete-des-intentions-de-vote-dans-votre-region-a-un-mois-du-scrutin_2106088.html) Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre. Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round) Where do you see the 2nd round numbers by region ? I only see 1st round results ... Here (http://www.ipsos.fr/decrypter-societe/2017-03-20-enquete-electorale-francaise-vague-12-focus-sur-regions). You have to see the results region by region. in Hauts-de-France it's Macron 55%, in Grand-Est and Bourgogne-Franche Comté Macron 56% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on March 20, 2017, 12:20:41 PM Polls by region (http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/carte-presidentielle-decouvrez-qui-arrive-en-tete-des-intentions-de-vote-dans-votre-region-a-un-mois-du-scrutin_2106088.html) Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre. Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round) Where do you see the 2nd round numbers by region ? I only see 1st round results ... Here (http://www.ipsos.fr/decrypter-societe/2017-03-20-enquete-electorale-francaise-vague-12-focus-sur-regions). You have to see the results region by region. in Hauts-de-France it's Macron 55%, in Grand-Est and Bourgogne-Franche Comté Macron 56% Interesting, thx. I have already assumed that Upper France and PACA will vote roughly like Austria when I saw that regional map of 1st round results a month ago in the deleted thread. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 20, 2017, 01:22:23 PM Why is PACA so right-wing? In a nutshell, pieds-noirs, the tourism industry, and strong anti-immigration sentiment. Gaël would have a lot more to say about it, of course. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 20, 2017, 02:37:25 PM Brittany continues to be the best region in France
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on March 20, 2017, 03:39:35 PM Dear God, that translator for Melenchon and Hamon on France24 English is so terrible.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 20, 2017, 03:41:07 PM Why is PACA so right-wing? In a nutshell, pieds-noirs, the tourism industry, and strong anti-immigration sentiment. Gaël would have a lot more to say about it, of course. I feel the influence of the pieds-noirs and the tourism industry is oversold somewhat. After all, if you look other touristy areas, like the ski resorts of Haute-Savoie, these are solidly conservative, but not particularly strong for the FN. I think part of the reason is down to the number of old people in the region; but also the traditionally high number of artisans and small businessmen in PACA, who are a strong FN demographic. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MLM on March 20, 2017, 03:48:54 PM Dear God, that translator for Melenchon and Hamon on France24 English is so terrible. I get that it's difficult to do live translations but I'm struggling to get some of what they candidates are saying. The Guardian live feed is pretty good at summing up what they are saying so I'm reading that too. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on March 20, 2017, 03:51:53 PM Dear God, that translator for Melenchon and Hamon on France24 English is so terrible. I get that it's difficult to do live translations but I'm struggling to get some of what they candidates are saying. The Guardian live feed is pretty good at summing up what they are saying so I'm reading that too. But Le Pen, Macron and Fillon translators are pretty good. Hamon and Melenchon just got the worst guy. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on March 20, 2017, 04:07:45 PM Why is PACA so right-wing? In a nutshell, pieds-noirs, the tourism industry, and strong anti-immigration sentiment. Gaël would have a lot more to say about it, of course. That's a fair summary, although I'll just say that people seriously overstate the importance of the pied-noir and that there's something to be said about the bleak sh**ttiness of the many small and mid-sized towns which are massive FN strongholds (Le Luc, Cogolin, Le Pontet, Beaucaire, Carpentras, Monteux, Brignoles etc.). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on March 20, 2017, 04:13:35 PM Why did you delete my post, Hashemite ?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on March 20, 2017, 04:16:20 PM This thread is about France, not Austria.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on March 20, 2017, 04:18:11 PM This thread is about France, not Austria. Yes, but they have similar voting patterns. Please do not delete stuff that don't fit your personal world-view. There's freedom of speech, no matter if you like that fact or not. Don't behave like Islamo-Fascist Erdogan and the likes ... Thx. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DavidB. on March 20, 2017, 04:18:47 PM This thread is about France, not Austria. Yes, but they have similar voting patterns. Please do not delete stuff that don't fit your personal world-view. There's freedom of speech, no matter if you like that fact or not. Don't behave like Islamo-Fascist Erdogan and the likes ... Thx. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on March 20, 2017, 04:20:08 PM This thread is about France, not Austria. Yes, but they have similar voting patterns. Please do not delete stuff that don't fit your personal world-view. There's freedom of speech, no matter if you like that fact or not. Don't behave like Islamo-Fascist Erdogan and the likes ... Thx. I write what I want and not what others want me to write. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 20, 2017, 04:23:40 PM lol, Fillon's big education idea is school uniforms.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 20, 2017, 04:24:16 PM This thread is about France, not Austria. Yes, but they have similar voting patterns. Please do not delete stuff that don't fit your personal world-view. There's freedom of speech, no matter if you like that fact or not. Don't behave like Islamo-Fascist Erdogan and the likes ... Thx. I write what I want and not what others want me to write. How did that work out at school for you? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on March 20, 2017, 04:47:07 PM This board has certain rules which are explicitly set out, including the need to "contribute relevant content to the threads" and refraining "do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion", and as is also explicitly set out, as moderator it is to my discretion how to treat such posts - and sometimes I choose to delete posts, without giving any 'infraction points'. The quality of discussion and analysis on the forum has shamefully collapsed in recent years, and this board is one of the few boards which still retains some level of interesting and relevant intelligent analysis, and I really intend to keep it that way. Ceaseless "Let me tell you how it is done in Austria!" posts are not helpful and contribute nothing to this thread, particularly when there's already an active thread about Austria where such posts would obviously be more than welcome (and please don't pretend that you're doing comparative politics, because that's not what comparative politics is). For that reason, for example, I won't go about making "Let me tell you how it is done in Canada!" posts in a thread about Austria, because posts like that wouldn't add any insightful value to the discussion.
Throwing around your favourite little epithets willy-nilly isn't helpful to anyone here and really doesn't elevate the quality of debate, which isn't very high to begin with on this forum. Nor are little "I can do what I want!" fits. That's all I will say on this topic. If you wish to discuss it further, you may send me a PM. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 20, 2017, 04:47:28 PM https://twitter.com/xfrison/status/843939495544274946
Point d'étape : #Fillon, l'air absent, inaudible, le grand perdant de la soirée pour le moment. #LeGrandDebat Fillon is basically absent. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 20, 2017, 04:47:56 PM First part of the debate is over.
Fillon as present as his wife in the National Assembly Le Pen attacked by everyone (except Fillon) Macron a little out of the debate the first hour but he had the best attack against Le Pen Mélenchon is quite good attacking Le Pen and Fillon Hamon attacked Le Pen with a good punchline "you are addicted to crime news" and Macron about money. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on March 20, 2017, 04:50:13 PM it's sadly not freedom of speech here.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on March 20, 2017, 04:53:13 PM First part of the debate is over. Fillon as present as his wife in the National Assembly Le Pen attacked by everyone (except Fillon) Macron a little out of the debate the first hour but he had the best attack against Le Pen Mélenchon is quite good attacking Le Pen and Fillon Hamon attacked Le Pen with a good punchline "you are addicted to crime news" and Macron about money. you are hostage of your left convictions... The 2 best are Le Pen and Melanchon. Fillon absent, Hamon in his bisounours world and Macron a little better. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 20, 2017, 04:53:53 PM First part of the debate is over. Fillon as present as his wife in the National Assembly Le Pen attacked by everyone (except Fillon) Macron a little out of the debate the first hour but he had the best attack against Le Pen Mélenchon is quite good attacking Le Pen and Fillon Hamon attacked Le Pen with a good punchline "you are addicted to crime news" and Macron about money. Le Pen is the strongest for me, unfortunately, she seems to always bring the debate towards the subjects she wants to dicuss, even if they are completely unrelated to the intention of the question. Mélenchon is the sharpest, along with Hamon, but Hamon also looks incredibly scripted compared to the former, even if the script is reasonably good for the tired socialist arguments (just heard him talk about working hours again though) - he just looks like a party guy. Fillon and Macron by far the weakest. Macron occasionally when he gets animated shows glimpses of interest but on policy he is too vague, which is what everybody feared. Fillon is just silent, he started strongly but now looks totally irrelevant. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on March 20, 2017, 04:54:11 PM Ugh, Hamon about unconditional basic income a little bit clueless.
And Le Pen is nothing close to the best, she all the time do not talk about the topic, she just talk about what she wants. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 20, 2017, 04:56:26 PM Ugh, Hamon about unconditional basic income a little bit clueless. And Le Pen is nothing close to the best, she all the time do not talk about the topic, she just talk about what she wants. Yeah, but that's why she is the most convincing. The problem is she is lying through her teeth and nobody brought up the fact that single most powerful lobby on the floor today is the Russian one, backing her. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 20, 2017, 04:59:52 PM This board has certain rules which are explicitly set out, including the need to "contribute relevant content to the threads" and refraining "do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion", and as is also explicitly set out, as moderator it is to my discretion how to treat such posts - and sometimes I choose to delete posts, without giving any 'infraction points'. The quality of discussion and analysis on the forum has shamefully collapsed in recent years, and this board is one of the few boards which still retains some level of interesting and relevant intelligent analysis, and I really intend to keep it that way. Ceaseless "Let me tell you how it is done in Austria!" posts are not helpful and contribute nothing to this thread, particularly when there's already an active thread about Austria where such posts would obviously be more than welcome (and please don't pretend that you're doing comparative politics, because that's not what comparative politics is). For that reason, for example, I won't go about making "Let me tell you how it is done in Canada!" posts in a thread about Austria, because posts like that wouldn't add any insightful value to the discussion. Throwing around your favourite little epithets willy-nilly isn't helpful to anyone here and really doesn't elevate the quality of debate, which isn't very high to begin with on this forum. Nor are little "I can do what I want!" fits. That's all I will say on this topic. If you wish to discuss it further, you may send me a PM. you are hostage of your left convictions... Hashemite, I will not lecture you on how to run the forum, but the first measure that would improve the debate exponentially would be to take off the flairs. Everybody here is accused of bias. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on March 20, 2017, 05:01:33 PM First part of the debate is over. Fillon as present as his wife in the National Assembly Le Pen attacked by everyone (except Fillon) Macron a little out of the debate the first hour but he had the best attack against Le Pen Mélenchon is quite good attacking Le Pen and Fillon Hamon attacked Le Pen with a good punchline "you are addicted to crime news" and Macron about money. Le Pen is the strongest for me, unfortunately, she seems to always bring the debate towards the subjects she wants to dicuss, even if they are completely unrelated to the intention of the question. Mélenchon is the sharpest, along with Hamon, but Hamon also looks incredibly scripted compared to the former, even if the script is reasonably good for the tired socialist arguments (just heard him talk about working hours again though) - he just looks like a party guy. Fillon and Macron by far the weakest. Macron occasionally when he gets animated shows glimpses of interest but on policy he is too vague, which is what everybody feared. Fillon is just silent, he started strongly but now looks totally irrelevant. 100 % agreed. Le Pen is lucky to have begun with her topics. Now she's lost. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on March 20, 2017, 05:01:51 PM Ugh, Hamon about unconditional basic income a little bit clueless. And Le Pen is nothing close to the best, she all the time do not talk about the topic, she just talk about what she wants. Yeah, but that's why she is the most convincing. The problem is she is lying through her teeth and nobody brought up the fact that single most powerful lobby on the floor today is the Russian one, backing her. Well for me it's just a sign of incompetence, she don't know what to talk about energy plants so she talks about agriculture. But I understand that for her electorate this really doesn't matter. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on March 20, 2017, 05:04:01 PM This board has certain rules which are explicitly set out, including the need to "contribute relevant content to the threads" and refraining "do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion", and as is also explicitly set out, as moderator it is to my discretion how to treat such posts - and sometimes I choose to delete posts, without giving any 'infraction points'. The quality of discussion and analysis on the forum has shamefully collapsed in recent years, and this board is one of the few boards which still retains some level of interesting and relevant intelligent analysis, and I really intend to keep it that way. Ceaseless "Let me tell you how it is done in Austria!" posts are not helpful and contribute nothing to this thread, particularly when there's already an active thread about Austria where such posts would obviously be more than welcome (and please don't pretend that you're doing comparative politics, because that's not what comparative politics is). For that reason, for example, I won't go about making "Let me tell you how it is done in Canada!" posts in a thread about Austria, because posts like that wouldn't add any insightful value to the discussion. Throwing around your favourite little epithets willy-nilly isn't helpful to anyone here and really doesn't elevate the quality of debate, which isn't very high to begin with on this forum. Nor are little "I can do what I want!" fits. That's all I will say on this topic. If you wish to discuss it further, you may send me a PM. you are hostage of your left convictions... Hashemite, I will not lecture you on how to run the forum, but the first measure that would improve the debate exponentially would be to take off the flairs. Everybody here is accused of bias. because everybody has bias. The problem is when moderators have bias... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 20, 2017, 05:05:38 PM Le Pen had a good start, for 30-40 minutes, but that's it. But for her it doesn't matter anyway. Her voters will vote for her, and she won't convince anybody else.
Mélenchon is really good to animate the debate, but his fight is really against Hamon. The majority will not agree with his proposals. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on March 20, 2017, 05:08:09 PM Le Pen had a good start, for 30-40 minutes, but that's it. But for her it doesn't matter anyway. Her voters will vote for her, and she won't convince anybody else. Mélenchon is really good to animate the debate, but his fight is really against Hamon. The majority will not agree with his proposals. agree but Le Pen had a good moment now with her protectionism,... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 20, 2017, 05:11:45 PM This board has certain rules which are explicitly set out, including the need to "contribute relevant content to the threads" and refraining "do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion", and as is also explicitly set out, as moderator it is to my discretion how to treat such posts - and sometimes I choose to delete posts, without giving any 'infraction points'. The quality of discussion and analysis on the forum has shamefully collapsed in recent years, and this board is one of the few boards which still retains some level of interesting and relevant intelligent analysis, and I really intend to keep it that way. Ceaseless "Let me tell you how it is done in Austria!" posts are not helpful and contribute nothing to this thread, particularly when there's already an active thread about Austria where such posts would obviously be more than welcome (and please don't pretend that you're doing comparative politics, because that's not what comparative politics is). For that reason, for example, I won't go about making "Let me tell you how it is done in Canada!" posts in a thread about Austria, because posts like that wouldn't add any insightful value to the discussion. Throwing around your favourite little epithets willy-nilly isn't helpful to anyone here and really doesn't elevate the quality of debate, which isn't very high to begin with on this forum. Nor are little "I can do what I want!" fits. That's all I will say on this topic. If you wish to discuss it further, you may send me a PM. you are hostage of your left convictions... Hashemite, I will not lecture you on how to run the forum, but the first measure that would improve the debate exponentially would be to take off the flairs. Everybody here is accused of bias. because everybody has bias. The problem is when moderators have bias... Sure, but part of the bias is fed by the fact that we wear flairs with X-XX and basically feel necessary to justify this from the very start, even unconsciously. That the moderators have bias is inevitable, and unfortunate (like your sig for example, that post I would not ban, but I would ban posts that deliberately look to disrupt and provoke) but this forum is like a private property that is entrusted to the moderators to govern. Nothing we can do about that other than go on other forums, which they would probably welcome. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on March 20, 2017, 05:21:00 PM lol
On the figaro.fr, Fillon is the best... What a joke, what a bias... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 20, 2017, 05:28:01 PM This thread is about France, not Austria. Yes, but they have similar voting patterns. Please do not delete stuff that don't fit your personal world-view. There's freedom of speech, no matter if you like that fact or not. Don't behave like Islamo-Fascist Erdogan and the likes ... Thx. To paraphrase the great Voltaire: on this forum, it is good to delete an Austrian from time to time, in order to encourage the others" () Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 20, 2017, 05:34:53 PM https://imgur.com/Qf6KtvK
By the way, any poll is to be taken with a pinch of salt, including the ones that have been towed here, because France Info have found that loads of people turn down pollsters as an act of protest. There's SME on a massive scale in France (and I'm one of those who didn't understand why Brexit was said to be a failure of the pollsters rather than the analysts). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 20, 2017, 05:54:45 PM OK, Hamon is f**ked.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 20, 2017, 05:54:57 PM Your picture is a Facebook poll.
All the polls show the same trends, the same levels for every candidate. If there is a big polling problem in France how polls can be exactly the same? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on March 20, 2017, 05:57:03 PM OK, Hamon is f**ked. A d you? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 20, 2017, 06:06:17 PM Your picture is a Facebook poll. All the polls show the same trends, the same levels for every candidate. If there is a big polling problem in France how polls can be exactly the same? They all have the same SME, which is people turning down pollsters. Not me that says this, France Info. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Intell on March 20, 2017, 06:09:36 PM Rise Melechon, anyone but Macron, Fillon and LePen please!
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 20, 2017, 06:10:27 PM OK, Hamon is f**ked. A d you? If he has a chance, yes. But if neither of them has a chance, I'll vote for Hamon because he's a better person and has better policies. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 20, 2017, 06:15:15 PM For the left Melenchon is basically a destructive troll and for the same left his Presidency would be even more disastrous than Hollande's to PS. I'd certainly take him over Le Pen or Fillon, but I'm not sure I wouldn't pick Macron instead if the choice boiled down to the two.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 20, 2017, 06:23:52 PM The debate is (finally) over. The 2 next debates with 11 candidates will be horrible.
I have no idea of who won. Each candidate has some good or bad moment. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: warandwar on March 20, 2017, 06:35:30 PM The debate is (finally) over. The 2 next debates with 11 candidates will be horrible. I have no idea of who won. Each candidate has some good or bad moment. I thought it was pretty clear that melanchon did very well. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on March 20, 2017, 06:36:29 PM Level of debate was pretty good, especially compared to Polish ones and I think Kal will agree with me.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 20, 2017, 06:42:26 PM The debate is (finally) over. The 2 next debates with 11 candidates will be horrible. I have no idea of who won. Each candidate has some good or bad moment. I thought it was pretty clear that melanchon did very well. Yes he did well, but I'm not sure he convinced a lot of people who aren't leftist. But in his fight against Hamon he did well. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 20, 2017, 06:47:24 PM BFM - Elabe flashpoll
Who was the most convincing? Macron: 29% Mélenchon: 20% Fillon: 19% Le Pen: 19% Hamon: 11% Best project for France? Macron: 30% Fillon: 20% Le Pen: 19% Best qualities to be president? Macron: 31% Fillon: 24% Le Pen: 17% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: GlobeSoc on March 20, 2017, 06:58:23 PM Melenchon will probably have a 4-6 point bump from this
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on March 20, 2017, 07:11:48 PM Melenchon will probably have a 4-6 point bump from this Macron will solidify his position and keep tying Marine Le Pen in polls. Fillion floundered like a bass out there. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SPQR on March 20, 2017, 07:17:38 PM This board has certain rules which are explicitly set out, including the need to "contribute relevant content to the threads" and refraining "do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion", and as is also explicitly set out, as moderator it is to my discretion how to treat such posts - and sometimes I choose to delete posts, without giving any 'infraction points'. The quality of discussion and analysis on the forum has shamefully collapsed in recent years, and this board is one of the few boards which still retains some level of interesting and relevant intelligent analysis, and I really intend to keep it that way. Ceaseless "Let me tell you how it is done in Austria!" posts are not helpful and contribute nothing to this thread, particularly when there's already an active thread about Austria where such posts would obviously be more than welcome (and please don't pretend that you're doing comparative politics, because that's not what comparative politics is). For that reason, for example, I won't go about making "Let me tell you how it is done in Canada!" posts in a thread about Austria, because posts like that wouldn't add any insightful value to the discussion. Throwing around your favourite little epithets willy-nilly isn't helpful to anyone here and really doesn't elevate the quality of debate, which isn't very high to begin with on this forum. Nor are little "I can do what I want!" fits. That's all I will say on this topic. If you wish to discuss it further, you may send me a PM. Oh, thank you. Anyway those post-debate poll numbers look pretty good for Macron. I saw a few "debate highlights" and he looked convincing when he attacked Le Pen. On an unrelated matter: is there a period before elections when polls are forbidden (for instance in Italy it's the two weeks before election day)? If Hamon were to remain at more than 10% points from the run-off just before the first round, he could bleed even more voters to Macron. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 20, 2017, 07:24:26 PM is melenchon able to swallow some FN voters too?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on March 20, 2017, 07:52:35 PM is melenchon able to swallow some FN voters too? Maybe some. He's definitely got at least a bit of overlap with Le Pen in certain demographics (laborers, in particular). I expect most of any gains he makes to come from Hamon. After the debate I think Hamon is going to drop into single digits, not really through any fault of his own but because he is squeezed between Macron and Melenchon. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 20, 2017, 08:13:56 PM For the left Melenchon is basically a destructive troll and for the same left his Presidency would be even more disastrous than Hollande's to PS. I'd certainly take him over Le Pen or Fillon, but I'm not sure I wouldn't pick Macron instead if the choice boiled down to the two. Mélenchon is a terrible person, but at least his program isn't a bunch of vague yet distinctly harmful neoliberal platitudes. He'd definitely do less harm in terms of policy, at least. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 20, 2017, 08:24:50 PM this is all quite hypothetical since all of us know, melenchon isn't going to win.
he and hamon block one another from relevance. only important question would be, if you want to prevent a fascist from ruling...or view a corrupt-far-right thatcherist and a maybe overhyped social-liberal germanophile as equally evil. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Vosem on March 20, 2017, 10:02:45 PM Watching clips of this translated into English from France 24, Melenchon is by far the most entertaining of these candidates; his mannerisms are much more Trumpian than anyone else's. I don't think I would've enjoyed him nearly as much if I thought he was a serious possibility for winning, but while he's languishing at 10-12% he's a lot of fun. Macron's and Le Pen's voices both came off as vaguely unsure and annoying (though perhaps it's simply the translators). Fillon and Hamon both come off as classically presidential, though Fillon can't have been helped by the other candidates making occasional snide remarks about or references to the banning of the hiring of relatives and the camera panning to Fillon not reacting. Hamon would've been OK, but the exchange where he tried to confront Macron about his movement's fundraising, where Hamon kept repeating to Macron, "I trust you, but...", seemed to come off as him implying that the differences between him and Macron are not so great.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on March 20, 2017, 10:28:45 PM lol, Fillon's big education idea is school uniforms. As if bandit needed more reason to hate him. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Intell on March 20, 2017, 10:32:15 PM lol, Fillon's big education idea is school uniforms. As if bandit needed more reason to hate him. A broken clock is right twice a day, such a glorious policy. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on March 20, 2017, 10:42:50 PM Another aspect of his education policy appears to be "5 year old kids will learn to respect authority!"
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on March 20, 2017, 11:08:09 PM For the left Melenchon is basically a destructive troll and for the same left his Presidency would be even more disastrous than Hollande's to PS. I'd certainly take him over Le Pen or Fillon, but I'm not sure I wouldn't pick Macron instead if the choice boiled down to the two. Mélenchon is a terrible person, but at least his program isn't a bunch of vague yet distinctly harmful neoliberal platitudes. He'd definitely do less harm in terms of policy, at least. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 21, 2017, 01:53:38 AM Poll, OpinionWay for Le Point (http://www.lepoint.fr/presidentielle/presidentielle-debat-et-le-plus-convaincant-a-ete-emmanuel-macron-21-03-2017-2113444_3121.php)
Who convinced you the most? Macron: 24% Le Pen: 19% Fillon: 19% Mélenchon: 15% Hamon: 10% Do you have a better or worse opinion of the candidate? Macron: better 29%, same 52, worse 19% Mélenchon: better 27%, same 59%, worse: 14% Hamon: better 18%, same 58%, worse: 24% Le Pen: better 18, same 56%, worse 27% Fillon: better 14%, same 55%, worse 30% Honnest: Mélenchon 69%, Hamon 62%, Macron 59%, Le Pen 34%, Fillon 24% Presidential: Macron 62%, Fillon 49%, Le Pen 38%, Mélenchon 35%, Hamon 33% Authority: Mélenchon 67%, Le Pen 65%, Macron 63%, Fillon 59%, Hamon 32% Credible: Macron 59%, Mélenchon 44%, Fillon 38%, Hamon 37%, Le Pen 36% Understands the concerns of the French: Mélenchon 65%, Macron 56%, Le Pen 54%, Hamon 52%, Fillon 35% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 21, 2017, 02:11:41 AM SFIO eventually transformed into the PS after Defferre's disastrous defeat in 1969. What should PS transform into now?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on March 21, 2017, 02:15:43 AM For the left Melenchon is basically a destructive troll and for the same left his Presidency would be even more disastrous than Hollande's to PS. I'd certainly take him over Le Pen or Fillon, but I'm not sure I wouldn't pick Macron instead if the choice boiled down to the two. Mélenchon is a terrible person, but at least his program isn't a bunch of vague yet distinctly harmful neoliberal platitudes. He'd definitely do less harm in terms of policy, at least. ??? "This candidate is a worse person than that candidate but has less harmful policies" isn't whataboutery, it's a normal political calculation. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2017, 02:21:46 AM SFIO eventually transformed into the PS after Defferre's disastrous defeat in 1969. What should PS transform into now? En Marche! - Left-wing Tendency Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2017, 05:08:59 AM RIP Henri Emmannuelli. I guess it's appropriate for a historic leader of the PS left to pass away today...
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on March 21, 2017, 05:41:43 AM For the left Melenchon is basically a destructive troll and for the same left his Presidency would be even more disastrous than Hollande's to PS. I'd certainly take him over Le Pen or Fillon, but I'm not sure I wouldn't pick Macron instead if the choice boiled down to the two. Mélenchon is a terrible person, but at least his program isn't a bunch of vague yet distinctly harmful neoliberal platitudes. He'd definitely do less harm in terms of policy, at least. ??? "This candidate is a worse person than that candidate but has less harmful policies" isn't whataboutery, it's a normal political calculation. Yeah, Antonio has clearly stated he'll vote for Macron in the run-off Don't get me wrong. I think Antonio is delusional for preferring Mélenchon over Macron, but that's because I think Socialism in general is delusional. :P Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: RogueBeaver on March 21, 2017, 09:20:45 AM Tomorrow's Canard: neo-Nazi secretly on FN payroll. (https://twitter.com/canardenchaine/status/844190336952012800)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 21, 2017, 09:33:05 AM Well there's a not so secret one on the payroll too:
() Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Bumaye on March 21, 2017, 09:55:09 AM Tomorrow's Canard: neo-Nazi secretly on FN payroll. (https://twitter.com/canardenchaine/status/844190336952012800) Neo-Nazis and the Front National? Non? Si! Ohh! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3FEhHF_fzM&feature=youtu.be&t=2s Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: RogueBeaver on March 21, 2017, 10:06:22 AM More importantly in tomorrow's Canard, Fillon and Putin. (https://twitter.com/canardenchaine/status/844189674340061184)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 21, 2017, 10:09:37 AM freedom magazine once again.
since they kind of single-handedly destroyed fillon...do we know/guess who loaded that pistol? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: RogueBeaver on March 21, 2017, 12:12:32 PM Fillon got paid 50k to arrange a meeting between a Lebanese millionaire and Putin. (https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/844220396413079552)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 21, 2017, 12:16:29 PM Tracking polls
Opinionway (pre-debate) Le Pen: 27% (=) Macron: 24% (+1) Fillon: 18% (=) Hamon: 14% (+1) Mélenchon: 11% (-1) Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39% Ifop (1/3 post-debate) Le Pen: 26% (=) Macron: 25.5% (+0.5) Fillon: 17.5% (-0.5) Hamon: 11.5% (-1) Mélenchon: 11.5% (=) Second round: Macron 60.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 39.5% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 21, 2017, 01:04:51 PM Tomorrow's Canard: neo-Nazi secretly on FN payroll. (https://twitter.com/canardenchaine/status/844190336952012800) More importantly in tomorrow's Canard, Fillon and Putin. (https://twitter.com/canardenchaine/status/844189674340061184) Salauds de Journalopes :D Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 21, 2017, 01:15:58 PM Fillon scandal: the judicial enquiry extended to aggravated scam and forgery and use of forgery (http://www.lemonde.fr/affaire-penelope-fillon/article/2017/03/21/affaire-fillon-l-enquete-elargie-a-des-faits-d-escroquerie-aggravee-de-faux-et-usage-de-faux_5098534_5070021.html)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 21, 2017, 02:11:06 PM Oh boy. I hope Fillon manages to come in fifth in the end. :D
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 21, 2017, 02:14:14 PM Fillon got paid 50k to arrange a meeting between a Lebanese millionaire and Putin. (https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/844220396413079552) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: RogueBeaver on March 21, 2017, 02:16:02 PM Misread (http://www.politico.eu/article/billionaire-paid-fillon-50000-for-meeting-with-putin-report/)the headline: Lebanese billionaire paid Fillon to arrange a meeting between a French oil CEO (who happened to be Fillon's 90s COS) & Putin.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 21, 2017, 02:22:50 PM At this point I feel like we're a week away from a headline reading "Fillon pimped out daughter for $20 and a McDonald's gift card"
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 21, 2017, 04:06:38 PM First post-debate poll
Elabe for BFM TV Macron: 26% (+0.5) Le Pen: 24.5% (-0.5) Fillon: 17% (-0.5) Mélenchon: 13.5% (+0.5) Hamon: 11.5% (-2) Second round: Macron 64%, Le Pen 36% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 21, 2017, 04:10:02 PM A Socialist Minister Bruno Le Roux has been caught up in a similar scandal involving his 15 year old offspring claiming money for work. Some great quotes from Jean-Christophe Cambadelis, who said he shouldn't resign because "he is not running for President, and François Fillon's campaign spokesman, who said he should resign.
The above is exactly why I think some frenchmen are going for Macron as an anti-systeme candidate. Even if he is a hybrid of the above, his victory ensures a return to De Gaulle vision of a President above the parties. Him and Le Pen qualifying will split the PS for obvious reasons and LR (I think the ni-ni policy towards FN in the legislatives will split them, if not a Macron presidency). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Cassius on March 21, 2017, 04:35:11 PM Misread (http://www.politico.eu/article/billionaire-paid-fillon-50000-for-meeting-with-putin-report/)the headline: Lebanese billionaire paid Fillon to arrange a meeting between a French oil CEO (who happened to be Fillon's 90s COS) & Putin. I mean, this took place when Fillon was out of office, so... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 21, 2017, 04:36:58 PM I misread that as "arrange a marriage".
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: The Other Castro on March 21, 2017, 05:36:14 PM I misread that as "arrange a marriage". At this rate, that will be the next Fillon scandal. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Maxwell on March 21, 2017, 05:39:27 PM Jeremy Jamm in Councilman Dexhart's body
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 21, 2017, 05:48:44 PM Can his nickname be Francois Failin'?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on March 21, 2017, 06:05:00 PM I find that Fillon reminds me a lot of that 360 year old vampire Barnabas Collins from the 1960s gothic soap opera Dark Shadows...now we just have to drive a stake through Fillon's heart and wave garlic at him
http://images5.fanpop.com/image/photos/29100000/Barnabas-Collins-dark-shadows-29109096-640-480.png Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 21, 2017, 06:06:17 PM Rtbf say 3000 people attended Hamon meeting in Brussels.
Would be interested to know what kind of figures Macron musters in London and Brussels. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2017, 06:21:22 PM OK, the hilarious implosion of Fillon really is a massive silver lining of this election.
freedom magazine once again. The Canard is a national treasure, yes. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 21, 2017, 07:06:54 PM if beautiful flawless macron isn't in the top 2 after the first round, brexit and trump polling errors are going to look like a tiny rounding errors.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: JA on March 21, 2017, 11:35:18 PM Poll, OpinionWay for Le Point (http://www.lepoint.fr/presidentielle/presidentielle-debat-et-le-plus-convaincant-a-ete-emmanuel-macron-21-03-2017-2113444_3121.php) Who convinced you the most? Macron: 24% Le Pen: 19% Fillon: 19% Mélenchon: 15% Hamon: 10% Do you have a better or worse opinion of the candidate? Macron: better 29%, same 52, worse 19% Mélenchon: better 27%, same 59%, worse: 14% Hamon: better 18%, same 58%, worse: 24% Le Pen: better 18, same 56%, worse 27% Fillon: better 14%, same 55%, worse 30% Honnest: Mélenchon 69%, Hamon 62%, Macron 59%, Le Pen 34%, Fillon 24% Presidential: Macron 62%, Fillon 49%, Le Pen 38%, Mélenchon 35%, Hamon 33% Authority: Mélenchon 67%, Le Pen 65%, Macron 63%, Fillon 59%, Hamon 32% Credible: Macron 59%, Mélenchon 44%, Fillon 38%, Hamon 37%, Le Pen 36% Understands the concerns of the French: Mélenchon 65%, Macron 56%, Le Pen 54%, Hamon 52%, Fillon 35% According to this poll, Mélenchon must've performed incredibly well in the debate. I wish that'd translate into a significant surge in support. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: JA on March 21, 2017, 11:35:18 PM Poll, OpinionWay for Le Point (http://www.lepoint.fr/presidentielle/presidentielle-debat-et-le-plus-convaincant-a-ete-emmanuel-macron-21-03-2017-2113444_3121.php) Who convinced you the most? Macron: 24% Le Pen: 19% Fillon: 19% Mélenchon: 15% Hamon: 10% Do you have a better or worse opinion of the candidate? Macron: better 29%, same 52, worse 19% Mélenchon: better 27%, same 59%, worse: 14% Hamon: better 18%, same 58%, worse: 24% Le Pen: better 18, same 56%, worse 27% Fillon: better 14%, same 55%, worse 30% Honnest: Mélenchon 69%, Hamon 62%, Macron 59%, Le Pen 34%, Fillon 24% Presidential: Macron 62%, Fillon 49%, Le Pen 38%, Mélenchon 35%, Hamon 33% Authority: Mélenchon 67%, Le Pen 65%, Macron 63%, Fillon 59%, Hamon 32% Credible: Macron 59%, Mélenchon 44%, Fillon 38%, Hamon 37%, Le Pen 36% Understands the concerns of the French: Mélenchon 65%, Macron 56%, Le Pen 54%, Hamon 52%, Fillon 35% According to this poll, Mélenchon must've performed incredibly well in the debate. I wish that'd translate into a significant surge in support. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2017, 11:44:05 PM Poll, OpinionWay for Le Point (http://www.lepoint.fr/presidentielle/presidentielle-debat-et-le-plus-convaincant-a-ete-emmanuel-macron-21-03-2017-2113444_3121.php) Who convinced you the most? Macron: 24% Le Pen: 19% Fillon: 19% Mélenchon: 15% Hamon: 10% Do you have a better or worse opinion of the candidate? Macron: better 29%, same 52, worse 19% Mélenchon: better 27%, same 59%, worse: 14% Hamon: better 18%, same 58%, worse: 24% Le Pen: better 18, same 56%, worse 27% Fillon: better 14%, same 55%, worse 30% Honnest: Mélenchon 69%, Hamon 62%, Macron 59%, Le Pen 34%, Fillon 24% Presidential: Macron 62%, Fillon 49%, Le Pen 38%, Mélenchon 35%, Hamon 33% Authority: Mélenchon 67%, Le Pen 65%, Macron 63%, Fillon 59%, Hamon 32% Credible: Macron 59%, Mélenchon 44%, Fillon 38%, Hamon 37%, Le Pen 36% Understands the concerns of the French: Mélenchon 65%, Macron 56%, Le Pen 54%, Hamon 52%, Fillon 35% According to this poll, Mélenchon must've performed incredibly well in the debate. I wish that'd translate into a significant surge in support. You realize that any Mélenchon gains will come at Hamon's expense, right? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: JA on March 22, 2017, 12:10:34 AM Poll, OpinionWay for Le Point (http://www.lepoint.fr/presidentielle/presidentielle-debat-et-le-plus-convaincant-a-ete-emmanuel-macron-21-03-2017-2113444_3121.php) Who convinced you the most? Macron: 24% Le Pen: 19% Fillon: 19% Mélenchon: 15% Hamon: 10% Do you have a better or worse opinion of the candidate? Macron: better 29%, same 52, worse 19% Mélenchon: better 27%, same 59%, worse: 14% Hamon: better 18%, same 58%, worse: 24% Le Pen: better 18, same 56%, worse 27% Fillon: better 14%, same 55%, worse 30% Honnest: Mélenchon 69%, Hamon 62%, Macron 59%, Le Pen 34%, Fillon 24% Presidential: Macron 62%, Fillon 49%, Le Pen 38%, Mélenchon 35%, Hamon 33% Authority: Mélenchon 67%, Le Pen 65%, Macron 63%, Fillon 59%, Hamon 32% Credible: Macron 59%, Mélenchon 44%, Fillon 38%, Hamon 37%, Le Pen 36% Understands the concerns of the French: Mélenchon 65%, Macron 56%, Le Pen 54%, Hamon 52%, Fillon 35% According to this poll, Mélenchon must've performed incredibly well in the debate. I wish that'd translate into a significant surge in support. You realize that any Mélenchon gains will come at Hamon's expense, right? Yes, I do. Hamon simply doesn't have a realistic chance at this point. That's not to say Mélenchon does, but if his strong performance elevates him in the polls, considering the incredibly slim chance either left-wing candidate has of reaching the second round, then at least one of them has some hope. Plus, Mélenchon, based on my admittedly limited knowledge of French politics, seems the more fitting candidate for my political views. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 22, 2017, 12:19:19 AM Mélenchon's absolute ceiling is probably around 15%. There just aren't that many French people who find his political views acceptable. He is also a self-important, pretentious egotist who would burn the country to the ground if doing so made him look cool. He has some good policies, but a lot of them are sheer populist grandstanding, and his presidency would trigger a serious crisis in the EU.
Hamon has basically all the good aspects of Mélenchon's platform without the bad that comes with him. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on March 22, 2017, 01:08:51 AM Lol Fillon. What's next?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Intell on March 22, 2017, 04:13:21 AM If Hamon has no chance to make it, probably would support Melechon. Really liked him in the debate, and his policies.
Melechon seemed to ignore, the immigration issue, while Hamon and Marcon were more supportive of immigration. Melechon seemed to be more about stopping wars, that promote migration,and his campaigned seems to be more focused on that, as well as opposing free trade deals, so that they can stay in their country. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 22, 2017, 04:42:40 AM Fillon had access to his mobile phone during the debate and received texts from his communications advisor (Le Figaro, Le Parisien)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: GlobeSoc on March 22, 2017, 08:48:21 AM Fillon is behind everything
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on March 22, 2017, 08:56:02 AM I wonder what's still out there about Fillon. Nobody could have imagined just how corrupt that dude is. Will the election be postponed if he drops out now? Or is that only the case under special circumstances (death, incarceration, stuff like that)? Not that he is going to drop out, he seems to believe he is entitled to the presidency.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mgop on March 22, 2017, 09:23:55 AM why are media so obsessed with fillon? he really should openly endorse le pen after first round.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 22, 2017, 09:53:13 AM Fillon had access to his mobile phone during the debate and received texts from his communications advisor (Le Figaro, Le Parisien) What the hell François!!! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 22, 2017, 11:20:23 AM Masks are now falling, we can all see the conspiracy at work, the plan is being achieved by this resignation of Le Roux in order to better call for my resignation, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAARRRGGGHHHH...
Only the cap part is from me, the rest is from François Fillon, earlier today on franceinfo. Waiting that they now call the London attack a conspiracy from PS. Amusing how now, for the only fact to resign for being taken in dirty trick, Le Roux shows as virtuous, that's where we are now, thank u Franky & Co. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on March 22, 2017, 11:44:46 AM At this rate Fillon will soon be ranting about how Rockefeller (he isn't dead! Lizardmen!), Soros and the Jews are conspiring against him because they want PC Macron as president.
Anyway, if Fillon really had contact with his communications director during the debate I wonder if he also did have contact with him during the primary debates. It would explain his strong performances there. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 22, 2017, 12:12:36 PM Poor Fillon, a month to hold, after he will be able to retire in his manor.
Tracking polls OpinionWay Le Pen: 26% (-1) Macron: 24% (=) Fillon: 19% (+1) Hamon: 13% (-1) Mélenchon: 12% (+1) Second round Macron: 62% (+1), Le Pen 38% Ifop Le Pen: 25.5% (-0.5) Macron: 25.5% (=) Fillon: 18% (+0.5) Mélenchon: 12% (+0.5) Hamon: 11% (-0.5) Second round Macron 61% (+0.5), Le Pen 39% Also it worth notice that Dupont-Aignan reaches the 5% threshold in two polls (Elabe poll yesterday and Ifop tracking) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zuza on March 22, 2017, 01:28:28 PM Also it worth notice that Dupont-Aignan reaches the 5% threshold in two polls (Elabe poll yesterday and Ifop tracking) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on March 22, 2017, 01:34:00 PM Also it worth notice that Dupont-Aignan reaches the 5% threshold in two polls (Elabe poll yesterday and Ifop tracking) Constant barrages of negative news about Fillon coupled with "traditional right" voters having nowhere else to go? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 22, 2017, 02:23:38 PM Also it worth notice that Dupont-Aignan reaches the 5% threshold in two polls (Elabe poll yesterday and Ifop tracking) Constant barrages of negative news about Fillon coupled with "traditional right" voters having nowhere else to go? He's also been on several TV sets, walking out of one for not having been invited. He's using his exposure early to try and usurp Fillon. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zuza on March 22, 2017, 04:30:12 PM Also it worth notice that Dupont-Aignan reaches the 5% threshold in two polls (Elabe poll yesterday and Ifop tracking) Constant barrages of negative news about Fillon coupled with "traditional right" voters having nowhere else to go? Yes, it's likely that he attracts former Fillon supporters but he has started to gain momentum only in the recent days when there wasn't massive drop for Fillon. Though if he got some additional TV coverage, this could be the explanation. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 22, 2017, 04:45:06 PM The financial and patrimonial situation of the candidates have been published (you can find them here (http://www.hatvp.fr/presse/pour-la-premiere-fois-la-haute-autorite-rend-publiques-les-declarations-de-patrimoine-des-candidats-a-lelection-presidentielle/))
And we learn that Fillon's daughter lends him €30,000 to pay his taxes. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy on March 22, 2017, 05:27:44 PM The financial and patrimonial situation of the candidates have been published (you can find them here (http://www.hatvp.fr/presse/pour-la-premiere-fois-la-haute-autorite-rend-publiques-les-declarations-de-patrimoine-des-candidats-a-lelection-presidentielle/)) And we learn that Fillon's daughter lends him €30,000 to pay his taxes. Is that the same daughter with the fake job? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 22, 2017, 05:36:35 PM Yes, the one who also gave 70% of her salaries to repay her wedding ceremony.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 22, 2017, 05:37:32 PM OK, if Fillon somehow still manages to win, France is officially a joke country.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Cassius on March 22, 2017, 11:45:39 PM If I was being serious I'd probably be supporting Dupont-Aignan by now, but Fillon really is too much of a rogue for me not to root for him.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 23, 2017, 01:44:58 AM Poll, Harris Interactive for France Télévisions (http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/presidentielle-a-un-mois-du-scrutin-la-perspective-d-un-duel-macron-le-pen-se-confirme-selon-un-sondage-harris-interactive-pour-france-televisions_2109980.html)
Sample: 6,383 post-debate Macron: 26% (=, since March 8th) Le Pen: 25% (=) Fillon: 18% (-2) Mélenchon: 13.5% (+1.5) Hamon: 12.5% (-0.5) Second round Macron 65% (=), Le Pen 35% For the top 3 the polls are quite stable before and after the debate: Le Pen and Macron neck and neck, Fillon distant third, around 18%. In the left Mélenchon has a momentum and moves ahead of Hamon, of course the fact that the is now the first candidate in the left could maintain his momentum. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 23, 2017, 04:22:07 AM It was expected but it's still big. Defense minister, Jean-Yves Le Dorian, will endorse Macron this afternoon.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 23, 2017, 08:21:11 AM like i said,......only biggest polling error since a looooong time could save fillon.
nr 1 or 2 in the first round is only an ego-booster Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 23, 2017, 12:10:51 PM Tracking polls update
OpinionWay Le Pen: 25% (-1) Macron: 25% (+1) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 13% (+1) Hamon: 12% (-1) Second round Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37% Ifop Macron: 26% (+0.5) Le Pen: 25% (-0.5) Fillon: 18% (=) Mélenchon: 12.5% (+0.5) Hamon: 11% Second round Macron 61.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 38.5% And some links you may find interesting French prediction market (https://hypermind.com/dash/frprez/dash.html) Forecast website (https://depuis1958.fr/) (97% chance of victory for Macron is a little bit high in my view) HuffPost Polling aggregator (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/france-presidential-election-round-1) (unfortunately not complete) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on March 23, 2017, 12:27:11 PM Its increasingly difficult to see any scenario (apart from assassination) that doesn't lead to Macron becoming President....if anything its increasingly looking like he will come in first in the first round
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mgop on March 23, 2017, 12:48:16 PM macron 63% lol same polls who said that brexit will fail and trump will lose.
first round will be le pen 30%, fillon and macron at about 20% each, and in second round it's all possible, le pen vs either fillon or macron 50-50. now laugh like you all laugh at trump chances to win. this site and pollsters are highly biased. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2017, 12:50:55 PM macron 63% lol same polls who said that brexit will fail and trump will lose. first round will be le pen 30%, fillon and macron at about 20% each, and in second round it's all possible, le pen vs either fillon or macron 50-50. now laugh like you all laugh at trump chances to win. this site and pollsters are highly biased. I seriously doubt this ... (even though Hash doesn't like it, here comes the Austria comparison !!!) Why would France vote to the right of Austria ? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 23, 2017, 12:59:28 PM more importantly....
the polls were only off a little bit with brexit and trump.... the french polls would need to be off A LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on March 23, 2017, 01:00:01 PM Trump was never trailing Clinton by much more than 8% (except maybe in early 2015 when everyone saw him as a joke candidate). In the last couple of days Trump didn't trail by that much, and he still lost the popular vote. Le Pen trails Macron by more than 25%. Against Fillon she might surprise us if even more comes out about Fillon but against Macron she is toast. Trump hijacked the Republican party, a (American context) respected centre-right party. Le Pen is the leader of the FN and is despised by a majority of both the centre-left and the centre-right.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2017, 01:11:09 PM It's also virtually impossible for Le Pen to win the runoff, just looking at the favourable numbers of the candidates:
* Le Pen has 30% favorable ratings and 65% unfavorable ratings, Macron is at 50-45 (or virtually even). * Trump was at -10 to -20, Hillary was only slightly better. Hillary won the election by 2, when we exclude the EC, which is relevant when comparing it to European elections. * Hofer on the other hand had virtually-even or slightly positive favourable ratings, the same as VdB (even though his were slightly higher). VdB won by 1 and 8 points. I think the GE election polls in France are accurately predicting the state of the race right now. Only a major deterioration in Macron's personal numbers could narrow the margin. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 23, 2017, 02:46:12 PM I won't say it's impossible for Le Pen to win, but it would require some dramatic change in circumstance: most likely a serious riot or terrorist attack that Macron fumbles his response to.(and even then, it could be a double handled sword: if Le Pen is perceived in her response to be overly political, triumphalist or divisive that could hurt her).
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 23, 2017, 03:12:37 PM macron 63% lol same polls who said that brexit will fail and trump will lose. first round will be le pen 30%, fillon and macron at about 20% each, and in second round it's all possible, le pen vs either fillon or macron 50-50. now laugh like you all laugh at trump chances to win. this site and pollsters are highly biased. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 23, 2017, 03:41:48 PM A new low.
Fillon accuses Hollande to be behind the revelations on him. "Never a head of State went so far in illegality" Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy on March 23, 2017, 03:43:53 PM filLOL
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 23, 2017, 03:44:46 PM A new low. Fillon accuses Hollande to be behind the revelations on him. "Never a head of State went so far in illegality" Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: I Won - Get Over It on March 23, 2017, 04:08:13 PM The only thing that could help Le Pen is MacronGate. In January everybody knew it would be President Fillon...
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: The Other Castro on March 23, 2017, 04:38:05 PM Tomorrow, Le Pen is going to...Moscow.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-23/le-pen-to-visit-moscow-as-russia-calls-her-political-realist?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 23, 2017, 05:13:15 PM Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"
Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on March 23, 2017, 05:21:47 PM Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon" Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal) Wow. This guy is like if you take Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, mash them together and make it even worse. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Beet on March 24, 2017, 05:21:03 AM The far-right candidate may even have the backing of more than 30 per cent of voters ahead of the presidential elections in late April and May, it has been claimed.
In an article for French newspaper Le Figaro, columnist Ivan Rioufol says the statistics comes from 'hidden surveys'. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4335534/Is-Marine-Le-Pen-actually-miles-ahead-French-polls.html Somehow I knew the Daily Mail comments would be pro-Le Pen. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2017, 05:27:37 AM The far-right candidate may even have the backing of more than 30 per cent of voters ahead of the presidential elections in late April and May, it has been claimed. In an article for French newspaper Le Figaro, columnist Ivan Rioufol says the statistics comes from 'hidden surveys'. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4335534/Is-Marine-Le-Pen-actually-miles-ahead-French-polls.html Somehow I knew the Daily Mail comments would be pro-Le Pen. "Hidden" polls ... ::) Anyway, polls before the Austrian 1st round were also off by a lot (by more than 10 points), but that's because Hofer was a popular politician. Le Pen is not. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lachi on March 24, 2017, 07:09:56 AM The far-right candidate may even have the backing of more than 30 per cent of voters ahead of the presidential elections in late April and May, it has been claimed. In an article for French newspaper Le Figaro, columnist Ivan Rioufol says the statistics comes from 'hidden surveys'. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4335534/Is-Marine-Le-Pen-actually-miles-ahead-French-polls.html Somehow I knew the Daily Mail comments would be pro-Le Pen. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 24, 2017, 07:18:15 AM Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon" Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal) Bérégovoy was a very strange suicide and totally different to Fillon. He's completely lost it but the LR is not powerful enough. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on March 24, 2017, 07:35:05 AM Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon" Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal) Wow. This guy is like if you take Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, mash them together and make it even worse. And a slight touch of Erdogan. Didn't someone on this forum have a theory about Erdogan having a brain tumor? I think that theory might also apply to Fillon. I wouldn't count out Fillon yet btw. If Fillon has two strong debates and Macron has a scandal (legal trouble or something about his past as a Rotschild banker) Fillon might squeak it to a second place. Fillon's base of old Catholic rural conservatives will turn out for him anyway. But if Fillon still makes it, it will be because Macron completely flopped. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on March 24, 2017, 07:38:52 AM Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon" Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal) Bérégovoy was a very strange suicide and totally different to Fillon. He's completely lost it but the LR is not powerful enough. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on March 24, 2017, 11:47:17 AM I wouldn't count out Fillon yet btw. If Fillon has two strong debates and Macron has a scandal (legal trouble or something about his past as a Rotschild banker) Fillon might squeak it to a second place. Fillon's base of old Catholic rural conservatives will turn out for him anyway. But if Fillon still makes it, it will be because Macron completely flopped. Yeah well the debate that matters most was the one this past week - and Fillon was widely viewed as having flopped. The next two debates are 11 way free for alls where it will be almost impossible for him to have much impact. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 24, 2017, 12:21:44 PM Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon" Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal) Bérégovoy was a very strange suicide and totally different to Fillon. He's completely lost it but the LR is not powerful enough. Not according to the official report. But yeah, sketchy. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 24, 2017, 02:36:28 PM Didn't someone on this forum have a theory about Erdogan having a brain tumor? It started as a joke, but then Events turned it into a half-serious suggestion... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 24, 2017, 05:21:15 PM Polls
OpinionWay Le Pen: 25% (=) Macron: 24% (-1) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 14% (+1) Hamon: 11% (-1) Second round: Macron 63% (=), Le Pen 37% Ifop Macron: 26% (=) Le Pen: 25% (=) Fillon: 18% (=) Mélenchon: 13% (+0.5) Hamon: 10.5% (-0.5) Second round: Macron 61.5% (=), Le Pen 38.5% BVA Macron: 26% (+1 from a week ago) Le Pen: 25% (-1) Fillon: 17% (-2.5) Mélenchon: 14% (+2) Hamon: 11.5% (-1) Second round: Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 24, 2017, 05:26:00 PM Are many Hamon supporters switching to Mélenchon? Or are they not bothering since Mélenchon doesn't have that much of a chance at making top two, either?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on March 24, 2017, 06:01:59 PM Well Monday's debate clearly had a positive effect on Mélenchon and a negative one on Hamon. Are they voters directly switching from the latter to the former? It's anyone's guess, but I'd say at least half of the effect is indeed just that, the other half being lukewarm Hamon voters quitting and abstentionists now choosing Méluche.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 24, 2017, 06:14:51 PM As with any debate, probably best to wait a week or two before we draw any conclusions.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 24, 2017, 07:33:35 PM lolfillonlol
Also, yeah, if history is any indication Le Pen is probably going to overperform by a couple of points. Still not nearly what she needs to have a serious shot. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on March 24, 2017, 07:49:45 PM Well Monday's debate clearly had a positive effect on Mélenchon and a negative one on Hamon. Are they voters directly switching from the latter to the former? It's anyone's guess, but I'd say at least half of the effect is indeed just that, the other half being lukewarm Hamon voters quitting and abstentionists now choosing Méluche. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on March 24, 2017, 08:49:33 PM There's little conclusive evidence of the FN systematically and substantially overperforming their pre-election polling, ftr.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: peterthlee on March 24, 2017, 10:25:55 PM There's little conclusive evidence of the FN systematically and substantially overperforming their pre-election polling, ftr. Polling in France is largely relevant. If there are some flaws in polling, I'd say Macron overperforms. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: peterthlee on March 24, 2017, 11:30:23 PM By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 25, 2017, 05:17:52 AM By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment? If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on March 25, 2017, 05:19:34 AM By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment? If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on March 25, 2017, 05:22:26 AM By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment? If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022. Is Fillon really in the same category as Le Pen? By now he has become a complete joke but ideologically I wouldn't put him in the same category as Le Pen. He is very right-wing on immigration and social issues but I'm not sure whether that really makes him far-right. I'd only use that term for people like Trump, Wilders and Le Pen. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 25, 2017, 06:36:51 AM By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment? If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022. Is Fillon really in the same category as Le Pen? By now he has become a complete joke but ideologically I wouldn't put him in the same category as Le Pen. He is very right-wing on immigration and social issues but I'm not sure whether that really makes him far-right. I'd only use that term for people like Trump, Wilders and Le Pen. No way on policy issues is Fillon far right, but commentators have noted how he has changed his style a lot since Pénélopegate. He used to be seen as calm collected and focussing on policy. Now he is very much looking at Sarkozy, who was in a similar position in 2012 campaign, and swung to the far right. Fillon's problem is that he will has come across a PS opposition to unite the hard Right. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Intell on March 25, 2017, 06:43:46 AM By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment? If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022. Is Fillon really in the same category as Le Pen? By now he has become a complete joke but ideologically I wouldn't put him in the same category as Le Pen. He is very right-wing on immigration and social issues but I'm not sure whether that really makes him far-right. I'd only use that term for people like Trump, Wilders and Le Pen. And very right wing on economics. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 25, 2017, 07:36:28 AM and ofc an euro-sceptic putin-fan.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 25, 2017, 08:32:51 AM Yeah, I remember back in the dying days of the UMP where Fillon was the moderate to Cope's rightist.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 25, 2017, 09:36:38 AM I'm not sure if this was mentioned at the time, but two weeks ago, Robert Hue backed Macron.
The first Blairite-communist? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: rob in cal on March 25, 2017, 10:59:46 AM A Rothschild banker backed by leftists either now or in the 2nd round, should provide lots of fodder for conspiracy theorists.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 25, 2017, 12:13:49 PM and ofc an euro-sceptic putin-fan. He is a Putin fan (they were on good terms when both were PMs of their respective countries) but not a eurosceptic. He just has a certain vision of a France-dominated, more intergovernmental Europe. Was De Gaulle a eurosceptic? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 25, 2017, 12:20:10 PM Was De Gaulle a eurosceptic? besides that my comment was meant tongue-in-cheek, i usually dislike judging politicans (and literally anyone), who lived half a century or more earlier by our current standards. to be more fair: let's say i distrust people who are too willing to improve their own positions and too willing to crawl in front of putin. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 25, 2017, 01:26:31 PM Mr
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on March 25, 2017, 01:29:10 PM I hope Fillon gets knocked to 4th by Melenchon, I doubt it'll happen but I think it'll be sweet justice.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 25, 2017, 01:30:59 PM at this point he just craves for attention, eh?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: The Other Castro on March 25, 2017, 01:31:12 PM Bad (or sick) guy!
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 25, 2017, 02:04:58 PM Mr At least he didn't misspell "sur écoute". :P Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on March 25, 2017, 03:35:16 PM I'm not sure if this was mentioned at the time, but two weeks ago, Robert Hue backed Macron. The first Blairite-communist? To be fair, Hue has turned into a #woke progressive - his party's candidate, random guy Sébastien Nadot, weirdly boasted of having a VR campaign billboard and cited Justin Trudeau as an example for something. Still, no less hilarious. Also hilarious: former PCF deputy Patrick Braouezec (who, tbf, left the party a long time ago) endorsed Macron but also said he'd support the FG/whatever candidate in June because we need an 'anti-capitalist counter-power'. Heighten the contradictions, comrades. Much less publicized by the Macronistas, but Macron is seemingly supported by Jean-Noël Guérini, the old criminal boss of the PS in the Bouches-du-Rhône who has dedicated his life since 2014 to destroying the remnants of the local PS. Flawless Beautiful Macron got signatures from guériniste senator Michel Amiel, Guérini-friendly and indicted PS deputy Jean-Pierre Maggi, a number of Guérini-friendly PS dept'al. councillors and - most tellingly - 2nd sector mayor (reelected in 2014 in a crass alliance with Gaudin) and departmental councillor Lisette Narducci, Guérini's closest ally (his binôme partner in 2015). The Macronistas have publicized the support of Christophe Masse, because he is less closely associated to the old Guérini faction, but Masse was certainly Guérini-friendly in a very recent past. In conclusion, () Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kingpoleon on March 25, 2017, 03:49:08 PM By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment? If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on March 25, 2017, 07:41:19 PM By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment? If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Intell on March 25, 2017, 07:45:10 PM By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment? If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022. lol. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 25, 2017, 08:09:16 PM It's well-known that I-AR avatars are the ultimate arbiters of the left-right spectrum in European countries. ::)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 26, 2017, 01:13:49 PM if the german media is correct, macron is at this point trying to DECREASE the number of socialist endorsements for his candidacy.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 26, 2017, 02:25:30 PM Yes, especially from the government. he wanted Le Drian's endorsement because he is popular and a strong asset in defense, but Macron doesn't want to appear as a Hollande successor. When there were rumors that Valls will endorse him, Macron said "I'm not a guest house"
Hamon a little bit desperate tonight: endorsements of Macron are "stabs in the back", "I'm told an execution next week with Valls' endorsement of Macron". He won't dropout in favor of Mélenchon because he "will be in the second round" Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 26, 2017, 02:59:31 PM Christ, the PS really deserves to die
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy on March 26, 2017, 06:13:41 PM Hamon a little bit desperate tonight: endorsements of Macron are "stabs in the back", "I'm told an execution next week with Valls' endorsement of Macron". He won't dropout in favor of Mélenchon because he "will be in the second round" Wow, that's FilLOL levels of paranoia and delusions Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 26, 2017, 06:17:22 PM Hamon a little bit desperate tonight: endorsements of Macron are "stabs in the back", "I'm told an execution next week with Valls' endorsement of Macron". He won't dropout in favor of Mélenchon because he "will be in the second round" Wow, that's FilLOL levels of paranoia and delusions He's absolutely correct. Valls broke the pledge he signed when he participated in the primary. He is a liar, plain and simple. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Intell on March 26, 2017, 08:38:54 PM Hamon a little bit desperate tonight: endorsements of Macron are "stabs in the back", "I'm told an execution next week with Valls' endorsement of Macron". He won't dropout in favor of Mélenchon because he "will be in the second round" Wow, that's FilLOL levels of paranoia and delusions He's absolutely correct. Valls broke the pledge he signed when he participated in the primary. He is a liar, plain and simple. This ^. I hope melechon and hamon merge, and Valls and shi!ts like them can join Marcron. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 27, 2017, 02:23:33 AM What is Melenchon's geographic base and how does it compare to Chevenement's geographic base in the past?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Klartext89 on March 27, 2017, 03:29:42 AM I've a question:
I'm in no illusion that Macron will become the next President. But what will that mean for the upcoming parliament election a few weeks later? Will he reunite with PS and promote them? Will his party/movement run their own candidates? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 27, 2017, 04:50:07 AM I've a question: I'm in no illusion that Macron will become the next President. But what will that mean for the upcoming parliament election a few weeks later? Will he reunite with PS and promote them? Will his party/movement run their own candidates? He has said he will look for cross-party alliance. He is also running his own candidates but he seems under no illusion that he will not get a majority. Several scenarios possible, and I also think they will keep in mind how they can deal with the FN for next election : 1. The PS breaks up (which looks almost certain now) and Macron manages to get the support of the renamed right-wing of the PS, Modem, PRG, maybe UDI and his own party, which could be enough for a majority. The LR stays as it is and stays in opposition to reorganise itself. FN are too weak to force a Grand Coalition. Likelihood of happening : medium. Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : low 2. The LR breaks up, the Juppéistes join Macron, some of the right-wing PS and Modem in forming a centrist alliance to back Macron's policies to an extent. In return someone from the Juppé clan or Bayrou is made PM. In this scenario it is likely that the FN are too strong or that the French political Right has a plurality big enough for Macron to have to take them into account. Likelihood of happening : high Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : medium 3. FN gets enough seats to force a grand coalition between the republican forces, dominated by the PS remnant and the LR remnant to support Macron. Likelihood of happening : medium. Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : high 4. PS and LR effectively disintegrate as political force entirely and the French political scene is reformed. Macron wins a majority with En March-Modem. Either FN or a hard right branch of LR in the Sarkozyste mould becomes the opposition along with the hard left. Likelihood of happening : medium-low. Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : high. I think despite the above, what we will probably see is something similar to Spain, a majoritarian democracy that struggles to find compromises in their new consociational context. Remember Macron can dissolve the Assembly mid-term if he wants to. THe ultimate fear of the traditional parties and commentators alike is that French politics polarises itself around two figures : Le Pen's niece and Macron. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 27, 2017, 05:05:34 AM What is Melenchon's geographic base and how does it compare to Chevenement's geographic base in the past? In 2002, most of Mélenchon's best results came from the South West and the Massif Central. Areas that are traditionally left wing, but not traditionally communist; although he did score above average in traditional communist areas like Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Bouches du Rhone and Allier, as well as the "red belt" working class suburbs of Paris. A casual glance at Chevenement's results suggest he performed best in the East of France, in particular in working class areas in what is now Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, and fairly poorly in the areas that went on to give Mélenchon better numbers. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 27, 2017, 07:05:59 AM I think that out of the 4 scenarios of Rogier for the legislative elections, the number 4 is the likeliest (if Macron is elected, against Le Pen)
Here's why in my view: -Abstention will be the same as it is since 2002: between 40 and 45%. That means that, on average, to be in the second round, if you are not one of the top 2 candidates you have to win between 20 and 25% of the vote. -Macron promised 288 candidates outside politics, and 288 candidates who are politicians, I guess that means 100 candidates from PS, 100 candidates from right-wing movements and 88 candidates from centrist movements (or something like that). -PS will implode between those who will want to work with Macron and those who will refuse. Those who will join Macron will find a place easily. For those who will refuse, they will be in the same position than Hamon now: stuck between the candidates of En marche (who will have the momentum of Macron's victory) and Mélenchon's party (who, if Mélenchon is ahead of Hamon, could claim the leadership in the left). In my view it's hard to imagine an average PS candidate over 15%. -LR will be in a grave crisis after Fillon's defeat (the man who lost the election that cannot be lost), from April, 24th to May, 7th the opposition against Macron will be Le Pen and FN. I guess that some angry right-wing voters could think that FN is the best opposition against Macron. I think that an average LR candidate could be under 20%. -So with that (abstention and the dynamics of the presidential election), I think that in a huge amount of legislative districts the runoff could be between En Marche and FN candidates. And that could lead to a comfortable En Marche majority. Of course I speak in an average election, there will be local exceptions. And a comfortable En Marche majority doesn't presume of the integrity of a such majority during a Macron's mandate. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on March 27, 2017, 07:25:47 AM Opinionway
Marine: 26 +1 Macron: 24 = Fillon 20 +1 Melanchon 13 (-1) Hamon 11 (=) NDA: 3 (-1) Lassalle: 1 (=) Macron 61 (-2) Marine 39 (+2) Fillon 58 (+1) Marine 42 (-1) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 27, 2017, 11:06:38 AM Ifop
Macron: 25.5% (-0.5) Le Pen: 25% (=) Fillon: 17.5% (-0.5) Mélenchon: 14% (+1) Hamon: 10.5% (=) Second round: Macron 60,5% (-1), Le Pen 39,5% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zuza on March 27, 2017, 12:07:12 PM Hamon: 5% (=) 5 %? Looks like an error. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 27, 2017, 12:13:22 PM Oops, sorry.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 27, 2017, 12:54:09 PM I find all this right-wing PS support of Macron funny, because the PRG – which itself is to the right of the right of the PS – is backing Hamon, at least according to their website.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zuza on March 27, 2017, 02:12:11 PM Who is Lassalle? He was a member of MoDem, so I can assume he can be described as a centrist. Is it true? Does he fit any label at all? It also seems he uses elements of Occitan regionalism/nationalism.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 27, 2017, 03:57:57 PM Who is Lassalle? He was a member of MoDem, so I can assume he can be described as a centrist. Is it true? Does he fit any label at all? It also seems he uses elements of Occitan regionalism/nationalism. THe core of his message seems to be the province vs the metropole. He's a bit of a meme small candidate who does funny interviews and ads, but it would be interesting to see what his program is about. Also, I have a question for the French, is Lassalle's region Occitania or Basque Country, culturally at least? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on March 27, 2017, 05:18:08 PM Who is Lassalle? He was a member of MoDem, so I can assume he can be described as a centrist. Is it true? Does he fit any label at all? It also seems he uses elements of Occitan regionalism/nationalism. THe core of his message seems to be the province vs the metropole. He's a bit of a meme small candidate who does funny interviews and ads, but it would be interesting to see what his program is about. Also, I have a question for the French, is Lassalle's region Occitania or Basque Country, culturally at least? Today, Lassalle is quite unclassifiable, he always was a bit of a personal maverick, especially in defending ruralité and his terroir, but a couple of years ago he went on a Tour de France on foot to meet the grassroots people of France everywhere, and since then he has been speaking very harshly against centralism, bureaucracy and even financial capitalism. Sometimes, I've heard him speak and asked myself if it was a member of the PCF or the NPA, seriously. I'm not saying he is actually left-wing now, but I think he's genuine in what he says, and he clearly positions himself in defense of the common people and the vulnerable rurals. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 28, 2017, 02:34:24 AM Some polls this morning
Ipsos for France Télévisions (http://www.ipsos.fr/decrypter-societe/2017-03-28-presidentielle-2017-l-etat-d-esprit-francais-4-semaines-l-election-presidentielle) Turnout index: 65% Le Pen: 25% Macron: 24% Fillon: 18% Mélenchon: 14% Hamon: 12% Second round Macron 62%, Le Pen 38% Honnest: Mélenchon 58% (for the lol: Fillon 13%) Presidential: Macron 41% (Fillon at 26%, even behind Hamon at 27%) Innovative: Mélenchon 44%, Macron 43% Renewal: Macron 47% Credible: Macron 40% Sympathetic: Mélenchon, Macron 54% Understand people like you: Mélenchon 53% Will keep his promises: Mélenchon 42% 77% say that it is likely that Macron will be President (Delusional 87% of Fillon voters say that Fillon is likely the next President) Odoxa - popularity (http://www.odoxa.fr/sondage/barometre-politique-de-mars-macron-melenchon-senvolent/) Most liked: Macron: 45% (+8) Mélenchon: 40% (+7) Hamon: 31% (-3) Le Pen: 29% (+4) Fillon: 19% (-3) Most rejected: Fillon: 60% (+10) Le Pen: 54% (=) Hamon: 33% (+5) Mélenchon: 30% (-3) Macron: 30% (+4) How candidates surprised you? Mélenchon: in good 38%, in bad 9% Macron: in good 39%, in bad 17% Hamon: in good 23%, in bad 19% Le Pen: in good 19%, in bad 15% Fillon: in good 9%, in bad 57% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on March 28, 2017, 03:16:05 AM I'm suprised by the consensus in the polls: all polls give the same result. Curious.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on March 28, 2017, 07:17:20 AM Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 28, 2017, 11:32:31 AM Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income). Mélenchon has simply a good debate performance (plus a strong rally).
Tracking polls OpinonWay Le Pen: 26% (=) Macron: 24% (=) Fillon: 20% (=) Mélenchon: 14% (+1) Hamon: 10% (-1) Second round: Macron 62% (+1), Le Pen 38% Ifop Macron: 25.5% (=) Le Pen: 25% (=) Fillon: 17.5% (=) Mélenchon: 14% (=) Hamon: 10.5% (=) Second round: Macron 60% (-0.5), Le Pen 40% Mélenchon and Macron don't want to debate on April, 20. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 28, 2017, 12:10:13 PM Who is Lassalle? He was a member of MoDem, so I can assume he can be described as a centrist. Is it true? Does he fit any label at all? It also seems he uses elements of Occitan regionalism/nationalism. To quote hash from aad: He isn't quite a fruitcake like Cheminade or Asselineau, but he's a rather odd character. He is a shepherd from rural Béarn (Pyrénées), which is an unusual background for a French deputy these days, and he very much likes to be seen as an oddball. In 2003, he randomly stood up and sang the 'Occitan anthem' (in Béarnese) in the National Assembly while Sarkozy was speaking. In 2006, he went on a 39-day hunger strike over a factory closure in his constituency, and claims that the factory owners or something tried to killed him. For most of 2013, he went on a walking tour of France to 'meet citizens' and 'understand their grievances', which has seemingly convinced him that he is the only man in the The above, save the Assad nonsense, doesn't qualify him as overly crazy, but on a recent talk show appearance, he (a) asked psychiatrists in the audience to share their opinions of his mental state and (b) is straight-up certain that he will be elected president, considering his 0% placement in the polls as trivial and justifying his certainty by claiming that he'll win because he's the opposite of Trump (one a millionnaire, the other 'a modest shepherd'). He seemingly lacks any actual ideas, besides "I like talking to people and I am a weird shepherd", suggesting that he would fix unemployment through dialogue and similar stuff. He voted against same-sex marriage in 2013, but said that he voted against because "it was polarizing" but that otherwise he's pretty down with gay marriage and married two women as mayor. He also called right-wing primary candidates a bunch of lowly 'trainees'. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 28, 2017, 12:30:53 PM Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zuza on March 28, 2017, 01:05:15 PM Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income). So Hamon supports basic income, while Mélenchon, who is to the left of Hamon, opposes it? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 28, 2017, 02:56:49 PM Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income). So Hamon supports basic income, while Mélenchon, who is to the left of Hamon, opposes it? A lot of leftists view UBI as a sort of Trojan Horse policy that sells itself as an expanded welfare state but also comes from liberalised employment laws and an attack on unions. In Finland, for example the most oppposition has come from the major trade union and the social democrats. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 28, 2017, 03:27:11 PM Penelope Fillon has been indicted of complicity and concealment of embezzlement of public funds, concealment of misappropriation of social assets, and concealment of aggravated fraud in the case of his supposedly fake jobs.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on March 28, 2017, 04:24:14 PM Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it. Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income). God I hate the PS. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 28, 2017, 05:05:31 PM Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income). God I hate the PS. And we could argue that Hamon vote for a motion of non-confidence against the Valls' government. (And after gets outraged when Valls doesn't want to support him) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on March 28, 2017, 05:52:51 PM Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it. If that were true wouldn't Hamon have also seen a rise in his polling numbers? (Assuming the 3 "well known ones" were Fillon, Macron and Le Pen) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on March 28, 2017, 06:10:29 PM Hamon's campaign is the RMS Titanic.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: warandwar on March 28, 2017, 06:13:22 PM Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income). God I hate the PS. And we could argue that Hamon vote for a motion of non-confidence against the Valls' government. (And after gets outraged when Valls doesn't want to support him) That's absurd dude. They have clearly quite different ideologies. Zanas was entirely talking about hamons ideology. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 28, 2017, 06:19:31 PM Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income). God I hate the PS. And we could argue that Hamon vote for a motion of non-confidence against the Valls' government. (And after gets outraged when Valls doesn't want to support him) That's absurd dude. They have clearly quite different ideologies. Zanas was entirely talking about hamons ideology. What are their ideological differences? They were in the same fringe wing of the PS until Mélenchon left. For me its a difference in style rather than politics. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: warandwar on March 28, 2017, 07:00:20 PM Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income). God I hate the PS. And we could argue that Hamon vote for a motion of non-confidence against the Valls' government. (And after gets outraged when Valls doesn't want to support him) That's absurd dude. They have clearly quite different ideologies. Zanas was entirely talking about hamons ideology. What are their ideological differences? They were in the same fringe wing of the PS until Mélenchon left. For me its a difference in style rather than politics. Ideology and politics are different things. Are you asking about difference in policy or ideology? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 28, 2017, 07:46:15 PM Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it. If that were true wouldn't Hamon have also seen a rise in his polling numbers? (Assuming the 3 "well known ones" were Fillon, Macron and Le Pen) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on March 28, 2017, 08:05:56 PM Hamon's campaign is the RMS Titanic. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2017, 12:55:48 AM This is obviously false. The main cleavage is that the former has been a minister during the finishing quinquennat, has a whole lot of former ministers or even outgoing ministers and deputies around him as candidates for the législatives, and is trying very hard to appear as different from the outgoing majority whereas he is just the exact same thing and would do the exact same sh**t. Oh FFS, you can be critical of Hamon without being a disingenuous, self-righteous hack. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 29, 2017, 02:02:49 AM Valls will vote for Macron
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: peterthlee on March 29, 2017, 04:29:09 AM Valls will vote for Macron But beware of an intra-party revolt. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 29, 2017, 04:37:47 AM Valls will vote for Macron But beware of an intra-party revolt. I wonder if Cambadélis will send a strong worded letter to Valls, saying he is effectively no longer a PS candidate. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on March 29, 2017, 06:35:46 AM I dont think Macron is really happy about this endorsement tbh.
Is there a list of PS prominents who they support? Macron: Valls, Le Drian, Collomb Hamon: Aubry, Cazeneuve, Montebourg, Hidalgo Neutral/Undecided: Hollande, Royal, Ayrault Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: swl on March 29, 2017, 07:08:43 AM Yes Macron recently had to distance himself from all these new supporters and said that those endorsing him should not expect to be automatically rewarded and that he will not bargain any change in his program.
Still, many Fillon's supporter consider Macron as the candidate of the current government. A majority of them would probably vote for Le Pen in the 2nd round. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on March 29, 2017, 10:39:07 AM So is there any chance that Macron wins the presidency but the right somehow manages to win a majority in parliament? Would it lead to a new cohabitation? It's probably not going to happen, the legislative elections are going to be in Macron's honeymoon and people probably will rally behind him, but on the other hand his party doesn't have the same party machine as LR or PS.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 29, 2017, 11:00:44 AM That's what the right hopes for. For myself, I can't see how that can happen.
Tracking polls update OpinonWay Le Pen: 25% (-1) Macron: 25% (+1) Fillon: 20% (=) Mélenchon: 15% (+1) Hamon: 10% (=) Second round: Macron 64% (+2), Le Pen 36% Ifop Macron: 26% (+0.5) Le Pen: 25.5% (+0.5) Fillon: 17.5% (=) Mélenchon: 14% (=) Hamon: 10% (-0.5) Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40% Elabe poll Macron: 25.5% (-0.5 since last week) Le Pen: 24% (-0.5) Fillon: 18% Mélenchon: 15% (+1.5) Hamon: 10% (-1.5) Second round: Macron 63% (-1), Le Pen 37% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on March 29, 2017, 11:47:51 AM its not unlikely anymore Hamon will end up in single digits.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 29, 2017, 12:05:39 PM macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on March 29, 2017, 12:08:15 PM macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know? Hash, be patient ... Austria 2016, first round. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 29, 2017, 01:22:54 PM I'm not sure if this was mentioned at the time, but two weeks ago, Robert Hue backed Macron. The first Blairite-communist? "We are restating our communism in terms..." That was Wilson, not Blair, but still. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on March 29, 2017, 02:31:19 PM macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 29, 2017, 02:39:31 PM macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know? Well in France, in the end of March 2002, Jospin was at 21%, when Le Pen and Laguiller were both at 10%. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 29, 2017, 03:04:53 PM I still think the Right has a majority in France, and that Le Pen is being slightly underpolled, based on FranceInfo, that well known FN radio station, saying there is evidence of voters turning down pollsters. Two factors that weigh against Macron.
Also, I recall the figures showing Macron had the most uncertain voters. So is there any chance that Macron wins the presidency but the right somehow manages to win a majority in parliament? Would it lead to a new cohabitation? It's probably not going to happen, the legislative elections are going to be in Macron's honeymoon and people probably will rally behind him, but on the other hand his party doesn't have the same party machine as LR or PS. I think its distinctly possible but that Macron will try to break up the two machines first. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 29, 2017, 03:31:42 PM I still think the Right has a majority in France, and that Le Pen is being slightly underpolled, based on FranceInfo, that well known FN radio station, saying there is evidence of voters turning down pollsters. Two factors that weigh against Macron. Also, I recall the figures showing Macron had the most uncertain voters. So is there any chance that Macron wins the presidency but the right somehow manages to win a majority in parliament? Would it lead to a new cohabitation? It's probably not going to happen, the legislative elections are going to be in Macron's honeymoon and people probably will rally behind him, but on the other hand his party doesn't have the same party machine as LR or PS. I think its distinctly possible but that Macron will try to break up the two machines first. FranceInfo a FN radio? And you mean this article? (http://mobile.francetvinfo.fr/elections/sondages/election-presidentielle-dix-raisons-qui-expliquent-pourquoi-les-sondages-peuvent-seplanter_2102031.html#xtref=acc_dir) It's very hard to find any real evidence of a polling error in this article just some basic suspicions. Practically all the polls show the same level for every candidate, the same trends. If there was a deep problem with the polls I don't think that a such consensus would exist. Also, the same methodologies were used for the 2015 elections, in those elections FN underperformed the polls. And now the certainty of the Macron's vote is up: 62% in IFOP (better than Mélenchon and Hamon), also 62% in the Elabe poll (same as Mélenchon, higher than Hamon) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 29, 2017, 03:39:28 PM I still think the Right has a majority in France, and that Le Pen is being slightly underpolled, based on FranceInfo, that well known FN radio station, saying there is evidence of voters turning down pollsters. Two factors that weigh against Macron. Also, I recall the figures showing Macron had the most uncertain voters. So is there any chance that Macron wins the presidency but the right somehow manages to win a majority in parliament? Would it lead to a new cohabitation? It's probably not going to happen, the legislative elections are going to be in Macron's honeymoon and people probably will rally behind him, but on the other hand his party doesn't have the same party machine as LR or PS. I think its distinctly possible but that Macron will try to break up the two machines first. FranceInfo a FN radio? And you mean this article? (http://mobile.francetvinfo.fr/elections/sondages/election-presidentielle-dix-raisons-qui-expliquent-pourquoi-les-sondages-peuvent-seplanter_2102031.html#xtref=acc_dir) It's very hard to find any real evidence of a polling error in this article just some basic suspicions. Practically all the polls show the same level for every candidate, the same trends. If there was a deep problem with the polls I don't think that a such consensus would exist. Also, the same methodologies were used for the 2015 elections, in those elections FN underperformed the polls. And now the certainty of the Macron's vote is up: 62% in IFOP (better than Mélenchon and Hamon), also 62% in the Elabe poll (same as Mélenchon, higher than Hamon) Well there is a phenomena called herding. When polls seem to all be saying the same thing, and there aren't even any outliers to speak of, that starts to ring alarm bells. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on March 29, 2017, 03:40:05 PM As I've already said, there's no conclusive evidence of significant or persistent underpolling for the FN. Panzergirl slightly overperformed her last polling numbers in 2012, although the difference was never very large and probably within the margin of error. Since then, polling for the FN has been right on the spot or very close in both 2014 and 2015, when it wasn't any more or less 'shameful' to tell a pollster you backed the FN.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 29, 2017, 03:45:24 PM As I've already said, there's no conclusive evidence of significant or persistent underpolling for the FN. Panzergirl slightly overperformed her last polling numbers in 2012, although the difference was never very large and probably within the margin of error. Since then, polling for the FN has been right on the spot or very close in both 2014 and 2015, when it wasn't any more or less 'shameful' to tell a pollster you backed the FN. Since then, there is a new phenomena in the anti-establishment Right (and by that I am not just talking about the FN) though, which is the idea that the pollsters are part of the left-liberal establishment, and that they cannot be trusted. Last week of polling for Fillon had him just a few points ahead of Juppe and Sarkozy, and the final result had him well ahead of them. Unless he gained massive momentum due to his electability, there is just one example of the French pollsters underpolling in the Right. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on March 29, 2017, 03:59:23 PM There's a major difference, one which should be pretty obvious, between polling for an election which will draw some 30 million voters and a primary, even a high turnout one, which draws at most 4-5 million voters.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on March 29, 2017, 04:13:51 PM Valls will vote for Macron Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on March 29, 2017, 04:35:25 PM As I've already said, there's no conclusive evidence of significant or persistent underpolling for the FN. Panzergirl slightly overperformed her last polling numbers in 2012, although the difference was never very large and probably within the margin of error. Since then, polling for the FN has been right on the spot or very close in both 2014 and 2015, when it wasn't any more or less 'shameful' to tell a pollster you backed the FN. Who "tells" pollsters anything anymore...nowadays most of the polling we see is either online or automated...there might be a 'social desirability bias' when being interviewed by a live person - but when yo9u are just going clickety click on an online survey - no reason to be shy about voting for Lepen if that is what you plan to do Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 29, 2017, 05:01:21 PM There's a major difference, one which should be pretty obvious, between polling for an election which will draw some 30 million voters and a primary, even a high turnout one, which draws at most 4-5 million voters. I'm pretty confused. You are contesting that the same phenomenon cannot have a similar skewering of polling of two separate events, especially as the two populations overlap? Also, in general, population size has no effect on the accuracy of their samples, variability does. There are exceptions, but something tells me 4-5million is x enough times larger than their samples for their sample to not have potentially missed out on a key margin. So that systemic error is rectified. Some other one must have been present. Shy right-wingers? who knows. I still remain a pessimist, maybe that's me systemic error in general. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: TheSaint250 on March 29, 2017, 05:43:45 PM 1. Will Valls endorsement hurt Macron?
2. Will the Socialist Party falter (kind of like the Dutch Labour Party), and if so, will En Marche! take its place? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zuza on March 29, 2017, 07:45:50 PM I'd say PS is already in the same, if not worse, position as the Dutch Labor Party; now it could fall even lower, though.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 29, 2017, 09:24:24 PM Serious question: does the average French person know a single individual that is part of En Marche aside from Macron? Because that's going to be the killer thing isn't it? As it is, it's basically becoming a front group for the right of the liberal parties and the right wing of PS.
I think PS have more strength than PvdA, given they still have some ability to get votes in strongholds, and powerful municipal figures (well, mainly Hidalgo but still). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zuza on March 29, 2017, 09:50:33 PM But PS always was much stronger than PvdA, so at least in the relative terms it's defeat is bigger. Also, I think it has much more chances to suffer a large split in the very near future, and a chance to cease to exist entirely.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 29, 2017, 10:39:00 PM 1. Will Valls endorsement hurt Macron? 2. Will the Socialist Party falter (kind of like the Dutch Labour Party), and if so, will En Marche! take its place? 2. Yes, it will falter. But the left-wing parties (Parti de Gauche or Parti Communiste or Front de Gauche) will take the lefties and En Marche ! will take the rest, a bit like how the PvdA support split between GroenLinks and D66. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 30, 2017, 03:38:55 AM 2. Yes, it will falter. But the left-wing parties (Parti de Gauche or Parti Communiste or Front de Gauche) will take the lefties and En Marche ! will take the rest, a bit like how the PvdA support split between GroenLinks and D66. I can't see that happening. The Parti de Gauche/La France Insoumise is basically a machine for Mélenchon in the way that En Marche! is for Macron, it will die the moment he steps down. And the PCF has long since stopped being at all relevant. I'm not saying that there won't be a realignment, but the PS has the machine that no-one else on the left really has, I can't see it stopping to be relevant. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 30, 2017, 04:06:43 AM Last week of polling for Fillon had him just a few points ahead of Juppe and Sarkozy, and the final result had him well ahead of them. Unless he gained massive momentum due to his electability, there is just one example of the French pollsters underpolling in the Right. But yes, Fillon had a massive momentum in the last days of the campaign. - Ipsos had him gaining 18 points in one month - Ifop in its last poll had a 7 points gain for Fillon in just 3 days. And also we were in the primary, with a short campaign. And of course it's easier for a right-wing voter to change his minds between right-wing candidates, than it's between a right-wing, centrist, far-right, left-wing, ... candidate Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: RogueBeaver on March 30, 2017, 06:53:05 AM Looks like next week's debate will be the last before Round 1. (http://tvmag.lefigaro.fr/programme-tv/francois-fillon-deplore-la-mise-en-scene-organisee-par-france-2-_df23d0a8-151c-11e7-9e28-7b011fa4a165/)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 30, 2017, 11:12:09 AM Tracking polls, quite stable.
OpinionWay Le Pen: 25% (=) Macron: 25% (=) Fillon: 20% (=) Mélenchon: 15% (=) Hamon: 10% (=) Second round: Macron 64% (=), Le Pen 36% Ifop Macron: 26% (=) Le Pen: 25.5% (=) Fillon: 17.5% (=) Mélenchon: 14.5% (+0.5) Hamon: 10% (=) Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40% Kantar-Sofres, popularity (http://fr.kantar.com/opinion-publique/politique/2017/barometre-politique-avril-2017-nos-indicateurs-de-popularite-a-moins-d-un-mois-de-l-election-presidentielle/) Among the candidates 1- Mélenchon: 47% (+19) 2- Macron: 41% (+1) 3- Hamon: 36% (+6) 4- Le Pen: 24% (-1) 5- Fillon: 18% (-8) Outside Juppé (4th, 28%), no right-wing leader in the top 15. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 30, 2017, 11:13:26 AM holy melenchon, lol@fillon.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mencken on March 30, 2017, 11:28:58 AM Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 30, 2017, 12:57:15 PM Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity? Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on March 30, 2017, 01:11:27 PM Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity? Iirc there was a poll semi-reciently which had something like 60% Melenchon 40% Le Pen? Can't find the source though, and it probably isn't all that accurate. Edit: Here it is. 64-36 actually, which doesn't sound realistic at all. Might be between 18-25 year olds though, which would make it more realistic (I don't speak French, so I can't totally confirm that, but it certainly looks that way) htt p://ww w.ifop.co m/media/poll/3693-1-study_file. pdf (Delete the spaces manually, can't post links) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zuza on March 30, 2017, 01:33:35 PM French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll. How exactly do they distinguish between realistic and unrealistic runoffs? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 30, 2017, 02:12:09 PM Probably when someone is within the margin of error to be in the runoff.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Maxwell on March 30, 2017, 02:44:53 PM they should probably stop publishing Fillon v. Le Pen polls then.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on March 30, 2017, 03:01:21 PM Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity? Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll. How could you have a law against polling an "unrealistic run-off"? Aren't polling companies free to pose any question they want? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 30, 2017, 03:09:22 PM they should probably stop publishing Fillon v. Le Pen polls then. Well, I believe that a majority of pollsters publish only Macron-Le Pen polls now. Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity? Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll. How could you have a law against polling an "unrealistic run-off"? Aren't polling companies free to pose any question they want? The law said that a second round poll must be published with a first round poll (so the second round poll has to be coherent with the first round poll). Polls are "supervised" by an independent commission, which has constantly ruled against the publication of unrealistic runoff poll. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 30, 2017, 03:23:17 PM they should probably stop publishing Fillon v. Le Pen polls then. Well, I believe that a majority of pollsters publish only Macron-Le Pen polls now. Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity? Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll. How could you have a law against polling an "unrealistic run-off"? Aren't polling companies free to pose any question they want? The law said that a second round poll must be published with a first round poll (so the second round poll has to be coherent with the first round poll). Polls are "supervised" by an independent commission, which has constantly ruled against the publication of unrealistic runoff poll. I'm struggling to see the logic. What do they risk subverting if they publish a run-off poll that is unrealistic? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 30, 2017, 03:41:25 PM Public warning by the commission (http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/competences/regime_sanctions.htm). If the polling institute refuse to submit, the commission can decide to engage legal actions.
But the commission and the polling institutes work in cooperation, public warning are rare, and polling institutes follow the recommandations of the commission (as for example, you don't see any "unrealistic" runoff scenario) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on March 30, 2017, 04:10:49 PM they should probably stop publishing Fillon v. Le Pen polls then. Well, I believe that a majority of pollsters publish only Macron-Le Pen polls now. Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity? Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll. How could you have a law against polling an "unrealistic run-off"? Aren't polling companies free to pose any question they want? The law said that a second round poll must be published with a first round poll (so the second round poll has to be coherent with the first round poll). Polls are "supervised" by an independent commission, which has constantly ruled against the publication of unrealistic runoff poll. A very bad rule, in my opinion. Really restricts the freedom of pollsters without a reason good enough to do such a thing. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 30, 2017, 04:11:39 PM Public warning by the commission (http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/competences/regime_sanctions.htm). If the polling institute refuse to submit, the commission can decide to engage legal actions. But the commission and the polling institutes work in cooperation, public warning are rare, and polling institutes follow the recommandations of the commission (as for example, you don't see any "unrealistic" runoff scenario) By what do they risk I meant also what potential impact on the race? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DavidB. on March 30, 2017, 06:11:15 PM A very bad rule, in my opinion. Really restricts the freedom of pollsters without a reason good enough to do such a thing. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: FredLindq on March 31, 2017, 04:00:18 AM Any signs/chances that Fillon bounces back or is he toast?!
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on March 31, 2017, 08:29:48 AM Any signs/chances that Fillon bounces back or is he toast?! There's still three weeks left, but it doesn't look like he's bouncing back. He's toast unless Macron seriously screws up (and even then Fillon probably still is toast). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Gustaf on March 31, 2017, 10:12:34 AM There's a major difference, one which should be pretty obvious, between polling for an election which will draw some 30 million voters and a primary, even a high turnout one, which draws at most 4-5 million voters. I'm pretty confused. You are contesting that the same phenomenon cannot have a similar skewering of polling of two separate events, especially as the two populations overlap? Also, in general, population size has no effect on the accuracy of their samples, variability does. There are exceptions, but something tells me 4-5million is x enough times larger than their samples for their sample to not have potentially missed out on a key margin. So that systemic error is rectified. Some other one must have been present. Shy right-wingers? who knows. I still remain a pessimist, maybe that's me systemic error in general. A primary electorate is, I think, generally harder to pin down than a general election electorate. Secondly, primary voters are a lot more fluid since they're picking between much more similar candidates than a general election voter. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 31, 2017, 11:10:51 AM Tracking polls
OpinionWay Le Pen: 24% (-1) Macron: 24% (-1) Fillon: 19% (-1) Mélenchon: 15% (=) Hamon: 11% (+1) Second round: Macron 63% (-1), Le Pen 37% Ifop Macron: 26% (=) Le Pen: 25% (-0.5) Fillon: 17.5% (=) Mélenchon: 15% (+0.5) Hamon: 10% (=) Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40% Mélenchon comes really close of Fillon. I think it will be really difficult for Mélenchon to go beyond 15% but who knows ... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 31, 2017, 01:10:08 PM Well ...
Odoxa poll, for Le Point, France 2 (http://www.lepoint.fr/presidentielle/melenchon-peut-il-rattraper-fillon-31-03-2017-2116366_3121.php) Macron: 26% (-0,5 since March, 19) Le Pen: 25% (-1) Fillon: 17% (-2) Mélenchon: 16% (+5.5) Hamon: 8% (-4.5) Second round: Macron 59% (-5), Le Pen 41% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 31, 2017, 01:29:33 PM Well those second round numbers could certainly be better...
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on March 31, 2017, 01:30:33 PM Why is it considered "realistic" for a pollster to ask a question about a LePen-Fillon runoff but not about a LePen-Melenchon runoff???
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 31, 2017, 01:40:43 PM From the same poll,
() Fillon voters split pretty equally between Le Pen and Macron; a big chunk of Fillon Melenchon voters abstain in the second round. I guess that is pretty much what you'd expect, Fillon's left overs will be the hardcore - but I would expect Melenchon's more recent pick-ups to be more willing to vote for Macron in round two. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 31, 2017, 01:43:02 PM melenchon and hamon voters are honorable....and fillon voters seem to dislike gaullism/republicanism...how ironic.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on March 31, 2017, 01:47:55 PM Why is it considered "realistic" for a pollster to ask a question about a LePen-Fillon runoff but not about a LePen-Melenchon runoff??? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 31, 2017, 02:02:34 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 31, 2017, 02:06:59 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one... you should think positive, in other countries, after 5 years of someone like hollande, the "left" would be in an even worse shape. i wonder if - by some accident or some other reason - melenchon would have dropped out or declined to run, his voters would have chosen hamon. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 31, 2017, 02:09:59 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one... you should think positive, in other countries, after 5 years of someone like hollande, the "left" would be in an even worse shape. i wonder if - by some accident or some other reason - melenchon would have dropped out or declined to run, his voters would have chosen hamon. I'd say around half of them would have voted Hamon and half gone to minor candidates or abstained. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 31, 2017, 02:14:18 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one... Who are you talking about in both cases? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 31, 2017, 02:17:23 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one... Who are you talking about in both cases? Isn't it obvious? ??? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 31, 2017, 02:29:02 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one... Who are you talking about in both cases? I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament. It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on March 31, 2017, 02:35:39 PM From the same poll, () Fillon voters split pretty equally between Le Pen and Macron; a big chunk of Fillon Melenchon voters abstain in the second round. I guess that is pretty much what you'd expect, Fillon's left overs will be the hardcore - but I would expect Melenchon's more recent pick-ups to be more willing to vote for Macron in round two. These 1% 1st round Macron voters who would vote Le Pen in the second round though. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on March 31, 2017, 03:05:00 PM Tracking polls OpinionWay Le Pen: 24% (-1) Macron: 24% (-1) Fillon: 19% (-1) Mélenchon: 15% (=) Hamon: 11% (+1) Second round: Macron 63% (-1), Le Pen 37% Ifop Macron: 26% (=) Le Pen: 25% (-0.5) Fillon: 17.5% (=) Mélenchon: 15% (+0.5) Hamon: 10% (=) Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40% Mélenchon comes really close of Fillon. I think it will be really difficult for Mélenchon to go beyond 15% but who knows ... Wow, at this rate France's 2 traditional parties might come dead last XD. Can Melenchon overtake Fillon? Because I guess if he does so France's 2 main parties are toast, replaced with some weird 3 party system (FN-En Marche-whatever Melenchon's party is called). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on March 31, 2017, 03:13:25 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one... Right guy at the wrong time sadly. At least the left wing occasionally wins in France, I can only dream... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 31, 2017, 03:19:04 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one... Right guy at the wrong time sadly. At least the left wing occasionally wins in France, I can only dream... well to be fair, it is close to impossible to really "win" an election in your country and even if it should happen, the people must still support each and every reform. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 31, 2017, 03:56:32 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one... Who are you talking about in both cases? I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament. It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate. OK, and was he referring to Jospin in 2002? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 31, 2017, 04:37:46 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one... Who are you talking about in both cases? I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament. It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate. OK, and was he referring to Jospin in 2002? Yes. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on March 31, 2017, 05:16:10 PM They should either prohibit publishing all polls or bugger off. This is silly.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on March 31, 2017, 05:33:32 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one... Who are you talking about in both cases? I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament. It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate. OK, and was he referring to Jospin in 2002? Yes. How are the two comparable though? Jospin said his own program wasn't socialist. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 31, 2017, 05:43:38 PM God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one... Who are you talking about in both cases? I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament. It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate. OK, and was he referring to Jospin in 2002? Yes. How are the two comparable though? Jospin said his own program wasn't socialist. I'm definitely to his left ideologically, but he still did a lot for the working class (probably more than Mitterrand, for all his Molletist rhetoric) and was a paragon of integrity and uprightness in politics, which is a rarity for French leaders. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 31, 2017, 08:22:21 PM What about Royal? Was she a good candidate?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 31, 2017, 08:31:12 PM What about Royal? Was she a good candidate? ...seriously? Christ. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 31, 2017, 10:27:28 PM What about Royal? Was she a good candidate? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: peterthlee on March 31, 2017, 10:28:34 PM Will Macron obliterate Le Pen by a similar margin in the HK Chief Executive election (67-33)?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on March 31, 2017, 10:55:50 PM The issue with Ségo wasn't her ideology (insofar as she actually had a coherent one, which is questionable) but that she was a fruitcake.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 01, 2017, 01:44:32 AM FRA
TER NI TÉ Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 01, 2017, 05:54:00 AM Royal still ran a better campaign than Hamon. Like Hamon she didn't had the support of the party but at least she had succeeded in galvanizing a part of the electorate.
Macron met with Estrosi today (President of PACA region), a "republican welcome to a candidate" but Fillon did not like it. (http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2017/04/01/97001-20170401FILWWW00040-presidentielle-fillon-reagit-a-la-rencontre-macron-estrosi.php) Estrosi was booed yesterday in a Fillon's rally (Fillon did nothing to stop it), and Fillon expects the same booing against Estrosi in Nice (Estrosi's city) in two weeks ("It will be tough for him"). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy on April 01, 2017, 06:10:45 AM What Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 01, 2017, 07:48:00 AM Not that it means a lot, but Le Pen has reached 47% for the first time against Fillon in the runoff.
Against Macron she's still around 40%. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 01, 2017, 08:42:32 AM What Royale's style of campaigning bordered on televangelism. She'd get people to repeat words, then syllables like the ones above. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: StateBoiler on April 01, 2017, 09:37:50 AM Corsican on another board I'm on. He did this last election and I found it pretty funny.
Quote French mafia new capo - 2017 edition PostPosted: Mar 21st, '17, 19:06 Here we go again: the whole brothel "needs" a new master. Main change from last time: no mobster from this lot has ever been appointed as Big Capo before. The reigning one is currently trying to make the most of his last days in charge, hoping everybody will forget his cataclysmic, albeit hilarious, stint at the helm of the country. He'll give his successor a never-ending state of emergency, a police state with nearly unlimited means of spying on citizens without any judge needed, LEF given a free pass for nearly everthing, a lousy Jobs act, a Health department depleted of 12,000 people, and boiling problems everywhere. He's been incompetent, ridiculous, classless and a coward… Other changes of note: one among the biggest fish is are formally indicted and another one will follow soon, because some stuff of theirs has been found too dodgy to close an eye to, even for French -very- loose standards. A third one could join them, as his financial reports are nothing too clear. A fourth one is indicted, but "only" because he insulted someone. Let's have a look at the contestants: 1-Francis "Clyde" Fillon. Indicted because he: liberally used public money to pay his family and himself (€ 1M so far and counting); is suspected of being corrupt as a rich "friend" bought him suits and other garments (€ 48,000); never declared a € 50,000 "friendly" loan; was paid € 21,000 by some black cash system the "Républicains" senators had set; was paid € 50,000 to play the go-between for a Total big fish, a businessman and Putin; and -fresh news- is now being accused of forgery. Was arch-favourite before the whole landfill fell on his well-combed head, thanks to a pristine reputation of honesty and integrity. He's of course a Christian and backed by Catholic "traditionalists", including two of the most vocal and powerful homophobic and anti-abortion groups… Make crowds boo journos and judges in meetings. Dumped his "The courage of truth" campaign motto when it became a tad too ludicrous to carry on. += People are fed up with the Socialists -= He's been exposed as a crook, a fraud and a liar and could watch election night from a commissariat cell. 2-Marine "Ma Baker" Le Pen. Indicted because, even as a declared Nemesis of anything EU, she used good EU money to fictitiously hire a woman nobody saw in Bruxelles. refused to answer the police and judges about the deal. Migfht be under fire soon because of two other similar problems. Could meet nagging inquiries re Putin financing her, too… Credited a big lead in the polls, she's nothing much to offer bar the usual "boot the Arabs and tanned ones out from France" and "Islam is the devil" routines. Make crowds boo journos and judges in meetings. Her goons manhandle journos she doesn't want to answer to. Was exposed as ill-prepared and not too quick to react at least twice in the past weeks. += Gathers irate and disappointed people who feel and know nearly everything is rotten in the country -= Chokes at every opportunity she's given to shine. Will face a "everyone but her" alliance on the 2nd turn. 3-Manny "Smooth Operator" Macron From business banker working for Rothschild to Elysée secretary then Hollande's Economy minister and media lovechild. 39, solid economic background, backed by people as diverse as the former Communist party boss and businessmen. The only one to challenge Marine's lead in the polls, but… He enginereed a law which is seen as a gift to the big businesses. He has still to explain where € 3M he earned as a banker had vanished two years after. +=Young, newcomer, brilliant when needed. Backed by Ze German Gang -=seen as Hollande's real successor, which cannot be an advantage 4-Benedict "Short Fuse" Hamon Socialist party surprise. Handicapped by Hollande's heritage, as he was a member of his govt, and by Socialist defecting to Macron's bid. Trappes mayor, he's being shown as the example of French pollies trying to gain votes by letting radical Muslims rule in some areas and gaining traction in a supposedly secular society. Insulted a man ans has to face a judge for that. += Has some "innovative" ideas to sell -= Has to face strong accusations pointing to his "friendship" with Islamist figures. 5- Jean-Luc "Der Über-Lider" Remember Napoleon from Animal Farm? Nothing much to add to get a spitting image of this one. Leading a "Unruly France" movement, he demands all the "unruly" ones to follow him, sporting the "unruly" logo, in order to oust "monarchic presidency" and "build a 6th Republic". He has also promised to enforce a law which basically prohibits anything which could be viewed as a protest. Needless to say, he's a big admirer of China policies, doens't want to hear anything contrary to his views. Has been recently spotted asking a journo to be "thrown out" after he was asked a question he didn't like. Spent all his life being paid public money… +=Has been campaigning for a year now. First ever candidate to hold two meeting at the same time thanks to an "hologram" -= Same old autocratic story under another "new" cover 6- Francis "The Crank" Asselineau Made his way to this campaign by posting Youtube vids. Another Putin lover, loves his conspiracy theories. Thinks everything's evil on Earth dating back from the Cretaceous mass extinction is the Muricans' work. Thinks Islamist terrorism is "not that dangerous", but Corsican one is a real threat (FWIW, all independantists' military actions ended in 2014) += Funny in his own way -= Not half as funny as he's boring 7- Nick "Double-Barrel" Dupont-Aignan Eurosceptic, he's a "Social gaullist defending French sovereignty" if you can imagine such a strange animal. Earned some sympathy last Saturday, playing the "righteously offended candidate" role when on TV. Shattered his credibility yesterday, inviting himself in the worst TV show you can find. += Slapped the TV and underlined the media campaign was un-democratic per se -= Cannot be seen as serious 8- Phil "Workman" Poutou Anticapitalist. Like 5 years ago, he's only here to defend his ideas. The only one of the current crop who works in a factory. += The "anti-system" stance big fishes chose at the start of the campaign earned him sympathy, as comparison was flattering him on that regard -= Knows he won't win, and is being treated as a clown by TV people and cops also Coupled in the poll with *9- Nathalie "Daiyglo Red" Arthaud Anticapitalist too. Nothing drastically different from Workman Phil, bar her party's ages-old will to stand as a different option. += Doesn't bother anyone as she's mainly invisible -= Same as above 10- Jack "Fruitcake" Cheminade Like in 2012, will entertain everyone by spouting insane dribble. Might get Trump's support as he thinks GCC is a lie. += Will probably run for the last time 11- John "The Shepherd" Lassalle Centre-right leaning peasant, he wants to reinstate military service, favour agriculture and green energy. +=Earned a good image -= Bar some ideas centered upon his personal agenda, his program is way too vague Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Skill and Chance on April 03, 2017, 12:20:06 AM I wonder if there will be a "Shy LePen" effect here? The good news for her opponents is that there are 2 rounds in France, so she would lose the element of surprise and Macron or Fillon could adjust their runoff strategies accordingly.
Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. I wouldn't be surprised if he blows it and gets 3rd in the first round to be honest. If French voters can swallow Fillon's scandal enough to put him into the runoff, I think he will win. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on April 03, 2017, 12:42:50 AM I wonder if there will be a "Shy LePen" effect here? The good news for her opponents is that there are 2 rounds in France, so she would lose the element of surprise and Macron or Fillon could adjust their runoff strategies accordingly. Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. I wouldn't be surprised if he blows it and gets 3rd in the first round to be honest. If French voters can swallow Fillon's scandal enough to put him into the runoff, I think he will win. I agree that Fillon probably would beat Le Pen, but don't forget that he is at 18% in the polls while Macron and Le Pen are at 25%. It would take a large polling error or a Macron scandal to close that gap. Fillon's voters probably are the most likely to turn out and actually vote but I don't think turnout is going to be enough for Fillon. And apparently Macron is ahead of Le Pen in the polls, and Fillon doesn't stand a chance against Macron in a run-off. Last poll I saw was 66-34 for Macron. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 03, 2017, 02:42:51 AM A "shy Le Pen" will probably be limited to a couple of points at most. Remember that the FN have been polled in a lot of elections over recent years, and the polling has not generally been too outrageously inaccurate.
The real wildcard is still going to be Macron. He, and En Marche! have never stood before, so pollsters don't have any reliable data on who will actually turn out to vote for him that they can use to weight their polls, and no reliable indicators like people who have previously voted for or against him, so there is a potential that his numbers are way off.The fact that he is consistently around 25% is a little concerning I think, as it would seem like all the pollsters may be forcing that consensus a little bit, in reality there should be the odd poll showing him outside of that very narrow range. I still think he should win a run off without any issues, it would basically take Fillon's supporters all rallying round Le Pen; and Hamon and Melenchon's either abstaining or voting blanc in massive numbers for Le Pen to wind up winning. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 03, 2017, 06:51:33 AM I wonder if there will be a "Shy LePen" effect here? The good news for her opponents is that there are 2 rounds in France, so she would lose the element of surprise and Macron or Fillon could adjust their runoff strategies accordingly. Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. I wouldn't be surprised if he blows it and gets 3rd in the first round to be honest. If French voters can swallow Fillon's scandal enough to put him into the runoff, I think he will win. I don't see ANY resemblance whatsoever between Macron and Hillary Clinton. Clinton had been a public figure for 25 who had vast amounts of political baggage. She was always quite unpopular personally with high negatives etc... in contrast Macron is a novelty who has never run for public office before. The people who support him see him as an fresh new face who represents novelty. He has realty positive overall approval numbers. If he ends up falling short of expectations when the votes are counted he will be more like Nick Clegg in the 2010 UK election than Hillary Clinton Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: peterthlee on April 03, 2017, 08:01:25 AM I wonder if there will be a "Shy LePen" effect here? The good news for her opponents is that there are 2 rounds in France, so she would lose the element of surprise and Macron or Fillon could adjust their runoff strategies accordingly. Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. I wouldn't be surprised if he blows it and gets 3rd in the first round to be honest. If French voters can swallow Fillon's scandal enough to put him into the runoff, I think he will win. There are rumours on the island that if James Soong ascended to the presidency KMT would not even be a thing in 2004, so KMT must try their best to make him lose. Macron has virtually no baggage compared with Soong. By 2022, PS will be his party under his remote control. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 03, 2017, 10:40:17 AM Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. on the contrary. valls would have been much more like hillary, with the difference, that he seems to be much more principled and there aren't enough push-forces behind him in france, to get him into round 2. macron is a charismatic outsider and a new force, while le pen is politically old and her ideas and her presence are rusty and well-known. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2017, 10:44:42 AM Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. on the contrary. valls would have been much more like hillary, with the difference, that he seems to be much more principled and there aren't enough push-forces behind him in france, to get him into round 2. macron is a charismatic outsider and a new force, while le pen is politically old and her ideas and her presence are rusty and well-known. Yeah, comparing Macron with Hillary is odd. She was a terribly flawed candidate from the start with low favourable ratings. Macron can be compared with a younger version of Alexander Van der Bellen. Macron should get at least what the polls show. The question is if Le Pen underpolls or not. I guess not. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2017, 11:02:47 AM New "Terrain" poll showing Melenchon in 3rd place:
() Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 03, 2017, 11:06:58 AM Tracking polls
OpinionWay Le Pen: 25% (+1) Macron: 24% (=) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 15% (=) Hamon: 11% (=) Second round: Macron 63% (=), Le Pen 37% Ifop Macron: 26% (=) Le Pen: 25.5% (+0.5) Fillon: 17% (-0.5, all time low in this poll) Mélenchon: 15% (=) Hamon: 10% (=) Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40% Also, everybody speaks this year about high uncertainty of the voters and possibly a record high abstention. Ifop tonight - Turnout: 66%, Certainty of the vote: 70% Ifop, early April 2012 - Turnout: 68%, Certainty of the vote: 72% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zuza on April 03, 2017, 02:26:17 PM New "Terrain" poll showing Melenchon in 3rd place: Is this a reliable poll? All others give Melenchon only 15 %. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: rob in cal on April 03, 2017, 06:30:46 PM A Melenchon vs Macron runoff might be interesting.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 03, 2017, 07:36:15 PM Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. on the contrary. valls would have been much more like hillary, with the difference, that he seems to be much more principled and there aren't enough push-forces behind him in france, to get him into round 2. macron is a charismatic outsider and a new force, while le pen is politically old and her ideas and her presence are rusty and well-known. Yeah, comparing Macron with Hillary is odd. She was a terribly flawed candidate from the start with low favourable ratings. Macron can be compared with a younger version of Alexander Van der Bellen. Macron should get at least what the polls show. The question is if Le Pen underpolls or not. I guess not. Macron is more the Obama type: Mostly the same as Hillary ideological but for some unknown reason people think he represents change. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Bumaye on April 03, 2017, 07:48:11 PM A Melenchon vs Macron runoff might be interesting. With all due respect for JLM, but Macron would most likely stomp him. The Hamon votes would be shared rather equally and probably about the same for Le Pen with a lot staying home. The Fillion votes though would probably go 90-10 towards Macron. That plus his higher share of the electorate compared to Melenchon and you would probably have something like a 65-35 for Macron. Though I think JLM could win a 2nd round against Marine but that would be a very long night that I really don't hope for. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 03, 2017, 08:42:05 PM Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. on the contrary. valls would have been much more like hillary, with the difference, that he seems to be much more principled and there aren't enough push-forces behind him in france, to get him into round 2. macron is a charismatic outsider and a new force, while le pen is politically old and her ideas and her presence are rusty and well-known. Yeah, comparing Macron with Hillary is odd. She was a terribly flawed candidate from the start with low favourable ratings. Macron can be compared with a younger version of Alexander Van der Bellen. Macron should get at least what the polls show. The question is if Le Pen underpolls or not. I guess not. Macron is more the Obama type: Mostly the same as Hillary ideological but for some unknown reason people think he represents change. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 04, 2017, 03:07:38 AM Has UDI's (totally useless) support gone to another candidate or are they still cross that they didn't force Fillon out?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 04, 2017, 03:18:23 AM There have been lots of defections to support Macron, but the party is backing Fillon again (http://www.la-croix.com/France/Politique/LUDI-resiste-tant-bien-tentation-Macron-2017-03-26-1200834837). Lol "centrists", I never understand why France is full of these joke parties that are basically just annexes of the bigger one - UDI for LR; PRG for the PS...
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 04, 2017, 04:18:55 AM Poll Ipsos for Cévipof and Le Monde (http://www.ipsos.fr/decrypter-societe/2017-04-04-enquete-electorale-francaise-vague-12bis-emmanuel-macron-et-marine-pen-conservent-leur-avance-sur)
Sample: 9,460 Macron: 25% (-1, since mid-March) Le Pen: 25% (-2) Fillon: 17.5% (=) Mélenchon: 15% (+3.5) Hamon: 10% (-2.5) Second round: Macron 61% (=), Le Pen 39% Certainty of voting: 66% (=), highest for En Marche's supporters (79%) Certainty of the vote: 64% (+5), Le Pen: 82%, Fillon: 75%, Macron 61%, Mélenchon 60%, Hamon 52% For popularity Macron still the most liked (44% dislike, 30% moderate, 25% like) Mélenchon just behind (47% dislike, 29% moderate, 23% like) Fillon still the most disliked (67% dislike, 16% moderate, 16% like) And political parties, likelihood of voting En Marche: 24% likely, 27% moderately likely, 45% not likely LR: 22% likely, 18% moderately likely, 55% not likely PS: 20% likely, 22% moderately likely, 55% not likely FN: 23% likely, 11% moderately likely, 62% not likely I think it's hard to find any reason to Fillon to re-bounce now. Unless a major surprise in the next 19 days. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 04, 2017, 09:40:15 AM There have been lots of defections to support Macron, but the party is backing Fillon again (http://www.la-croix.com/France/Politique/LUDI-resiste-tant-bien-tentation-Macron-2017-03-26-1200834837). Lol "centrists", I never understand why France is full of these joke parties that are basically just annexes of the bigger one - UDI for LR; PRG for the PS... Well sycophants do as sychophants must! ;D Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on April 04, 2017, 09:49:28 AM There have been lots of defections to support Macron, but the party is backing Fillon again (http://www.la-croix.com/France/Politique/LUDI-resiste-tant-bien-tentation-Macron-2017-03-26-1200834837). Lol "centrists", I never understand why France is full of these joke parties that are basically just annexes of the bigger one - UDI for LR; PRG for the PS... Hilariously, the UDI isn't even a single party but rather a federation of party made up of four parties and four 'associated structure', much like the old UDF (and, like the old UDF, it is also possible to directly join the UDI as an 'adhérent direct'). It is currently made up of the Lagarde and friends' microempresa electoral (FED), Hervé Morin's useless NC (now called 'Les Centristes'), the Radical Party and Jean-Marie Bockel's utterly irrelevant La Gauche moderne. Jean Arthuis' Alliance centriste was excluded for supporting FBM. In 2014, the Radicals were the largest party with around 6,000 members, followed by the FED and NC with over 5,000 each (LGM claimed about 1,100 and AC 476) --- somewhat amazing that the FED had over 5,000 purported member, considering I've never seen that party as anything else than the product of Lagarde's personal feud with Morin and that no normal person has heard of it, although Lagarde has clientelistic networks so... Some other parties originally joined but have since left or been expelled: Neuilly mayor Jean-Christophe Fromantin's micro-party (TEM) left, the irrelevant Parti libéral démocrate came and went and the old but useless right-wing CNIP was expelled shortly after Gilles Bourdouleix's "Hitler probably didn't kill enough" (Roma) comment. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 04, 2017, 10:08:25 AM I was going to ask about the parties individually, but then thought who cares, what's the difference! ;)
Btw, great to see you around, Hash. :) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 04, 2017, 10:33:02 AM Which one is Borloo's faction and why hasn't kicked them up the arse for supporting Fillon?
Also, the mention of Lagarde and UDI remants reminded me of this abomination : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyLOy7l_jP4 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 04, 2017, 10:38:37 AM Which one is Borloo's faction and why hasn't kicked them up the arse for supporting Fillon? Also, the mention of Lagarde and UDI remants reminded me of this abomination : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyLOy7l_jP4 Bless you for sharing. ;D Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 04, 2017, 11:15:23 AM Tracking polls
OpinionWay Le Pen: 26% (+1) Macron: 24% (=) Fillon: 20% (+1) Mélenchon: 15% (=) Hamon: 10% (-1) Second round: Macron 61% (-2), Le Pen 39% Ifop Macron: 25% (-1) Le Pen: 25% (-0.5) Fillon: 17.5 (+0.5) Mélenchon: 15.5% (+0.5) Hamon: 10% (=) Second round: Macron 60.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 39.5% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 04, 2017, 02:51:52 PM Anyone watching the debate?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 04, 2017, 03:07:04 PM I do. Too many people, so not it's almost impossible to anyone to be remember
Nevertheless among the main candidates, well I think that Macron is doing a very good job, Mélenchon and Hamon are quite good, Le Pen I would say neutral, Fillon totally absent for 30-40 minutes, looks sad, then an arrogant attack against Dupont-Aignan. Among minor candidates, well Dupont-Aignan is the most credible but Poutou is cool. He made some attacks against "corrupted politicians who will recognize themselves in the room" maybe the part about moralization of public life will be interesting. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 04, 2017, 03:14:44 PM Yea I agree, 11 is way too much and bit chaotic. Poutou is speaking way too fast and Lassalle way too slow speaks like a drunk person. Its funny to see how Le Pen has to defend herself against Asselineau and Melenchon against the other minor leftish candidates
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on April 04, 2017, 03:18:56 PM Lassalle continues to be hilarious. Seems to be slightly drunk (or it might be his natural insanity).
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 04, 2017, 03:22:09 PM Sadly I can't stop laughing at every answer he gives beginning by "Fellow citizens"
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on April 04, 2017, 03:29:03 PM I am watching but I don't understand anything. I wish to understand what Arthaud and Poutou were talking about .
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 04, 2017, 03:31:47 PM Christ, I'd probably vote Macron over JLM. JLM presidency would be an utter disaster for the French left, making Hollande's year look like nothing happened.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 04, 2017, 03:38:14 PM I am watching but I don't understand anything. I wish to understand what Arthaud and Poutou were talking about . They basically say that the problem to everything is Big Business (even to terrorism) But it was interesting to see them "defend" the EU (the only ones with Macron and maybe Hamon) because obviously the problem is Big Business. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SPQR on April 04, 2017, 03:44:49 PM Seems like Lassalle is managing to get some attention, though.
() Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 04, 2017, 03:46:34 PM Haha. Well Poutou did his job about moralization of public life.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on April 04, 2017, 03:47:24 PM Haha. Well Poutou did his job about moralization of public life. What did he said? :( Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 04, 2017, 03:52:05 PM "Since January, it's the feast, Fillon, he is in front of me, the more we search, the more we feel the corruption, the cheating. And he is the guy who explain to us that austerity is necessary"
Le Pen, who refused to be heard by police because of her parliamentary immunity "We, we don't have a worker immunity" Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on April 04, 2017, 04:22:01 PM Fillon displays his utter ignorance of Venezuelan constitutional law. Sad!
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 04, 2017, 04:23:13 PM This debate is missing Jean-Luc Benhammias
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on April 04, 2017, 04:46:38 PM Which one is Borloo's faction and why hasn't kicked them up the arse for supporting Fillon? Also, the mention of Lagarde and UDI remants reminded me of this abomination : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyLOy7l_jP4 Borloo was with the Radical Party. Despite its pretensions, the PRV has declined into obscurity and irrelevance once more, unable to exist without others' goodwill. In any case, Borloo is nowhere to be found, presumably too drunk to care. It's unclear if he has some kind of secret master plan but it's irrelevant since he's proven that he's incompetent and a failed politician. The UMP lipdub is one of the greatest moments in recent French history. A shout-out to the IMF director's sick dance moves, Wauquiez checking out the girl next to him, whatever the hell my lovely deputy Frédo Lefebvre was doing there and Jean-Pierre Raffarin's timeless goal of being that hip kewl kid. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 04, 2017, 05:36:29 PM Poutou to Fillon: "You are less concerned about debt when it comes to lining your pockets"
Fillon: "Je vais vous foutre un procès" (I don't know exactly how to translate that, maybe "I'll f--king sue you" ?) So the debate is over (Almost 4 hours...). Among the main candidates, I would say that Macron has won, he wasn't attacked by Fillon or Le Pen, strange. Mélenchon and Hamon were good, but no more. I think that Fillon and Le Pen lost, Fillon attacked by everyone (and very hard by Poutou of course), Le Pen was very aggressive. For the minor candidates: Dupont-Aignan the more credible, maybe he could gain some votes from Fillon. Poutou was the best to animate the debate. For the others nothing will change. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 04, 2017, 07:26:40 PM Which one is Borloo's faction and why hasn't kicked them up the arse for supporting Fillon? Also, the mention of Lagarde and UDI remants reminded me of this abomination : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyLOy7l_jP4 Les jeunes du neuf-deux. I just had to try and convince my flatmate that I was watching porn >:( Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: TheSaint250 on April 04, 2017, 07:45:11 PM Another question for experts on French politics: Why doesn't Dupont-Aignan drop out and endorse Le Pen? He and his party seem to align with her (except for him wanting a quicker Frexit).
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 04, 2017, 07:49:28 PM Another question for experts on French politics: Why doesn't Dupont-Aignan drop out and endorse Le Pen? He and his party seem to align with her (except for him wanting a quicker Frexit). Well it's too late to withdraw from the election officially. Other than that, the French far-right has many concerns, but electability is not one of them. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 04, 2017, 08:47:38 PM Another question for experts on French politics: Why doesn't Dupont-Aignan drop out and endorse Le Pen? He and his party seem to align with her (except for him wanting a quicker Frexit). Nicolas Dupont-Aignan still rejects fiercely the identitarian politics advocated by Marine Le Pen, even though he is moving closer to the right every week. Immigration is not his greater concern. He also doesn't like the "flexible" secularism (laïcité) of the FN; he believes in strict separation of church and state, whereas they prefer to see Christianity as the most important part of "French roots". Also, he doesn't want to give up his party and his role as leader. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 04, 2017, 08:57:12 PM As for the debate, I'm obviously heavily biased but I think Mélenchon did the best performance, like last time. Polls agree with me: as per a Elabe poll for BFMTV, 25% of watchers found him the most convincing, ahead of Macron (21%).
Arthaud was downright scary (she almost say "kill the rich"). Poutou made everyone laugh but I don't know if it will go further than that. Hamon was sadly invisible. Macron was... I don't know, what he says never makes any sense but it's feel-good bullsh**t. Lassalle was peculiar. I want to note French is actually is third language, after Bearnese Gascon and Basque. Fillon almost spoke with nobody. It was a monologue reminding people to be afraid. Dupont-Aignan was forgettable. Asselineau was giving a constitutional law lecture. He spent his time quoting constitution articles, european treaties clauses, and Chinese sayings. Le Pen was like usual, trying to balance hard-right identitarian politics and left-wing economic populism. Cheminade was interesting, I almost forgot his program is literally insane. It was a fun night overall. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 04, 2017, 10:07:15 PM For once, someone using "literally" on the Internet isn't exaggerating. LaRouchies are crackpots.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 04, 2017, 10:12:43 PM Sorry I missed this one as I'm sure the level of inaudible shouting was taken to a whole new decibel level.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 05, 2017, 06:43:52 AM There seems to be a fair level of stability in the polls this last month. If you look at OpinionWay polls over the last month which pretty much polls every week day and look at the results grouped by Right (Le Pen+Fillon), Center (Marcon) and Left (Hamon+Melenchon) and throw out the very best day and very worse day for each bloc we get
Right (ranges from 44-47) Center (ranges from 24-25) Left (ranges from 24-26) If we do the same for Ifop polls over the last month we get Right (ranges from 43-46) Center (ranges from 25-26) Left (ranges from 23-26) Seems overall Ifop more Marcon friendly than OpinionWay. Since it is likely that Marcon voters will likely to be less committed perhaps OpinionWay has a stronger likely voter filter ? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 05, 2017, 09:45:44 AM I'm not sure grouping Les Républicains and Front National together makes sense.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 05, 2017, 09:48:25 AM especially since fillon is FAAAAAAAR more right-wing on economical issues and also dragged LR to the right.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 05, 2017, 10:20:16 AM especially since fillon is FAAAAAAAR more right-wing on economical issues and also dragged LR to the right. He and his (adopted) wing of the party (Manif Pour Tous, hard conservative types) have a lot of convergence with Marion Maréchal-Le Pen and her wing of the FN though. http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php (yes, I know sorry for the source) A lot of commentators have actually noted how Marine Le Pen's neither Left neither Right campaign backfired when Fillon was elected, because her only way to power was trying to entice the hard right of the LR into governing with her, while the 3 given candidates (Valls, Macron, Juppé) were presented as the centre-left. Personally, I just think it has to do with her father's legacy. And her niece can try a different strategy, unless they drop the idea that it is a Le Pen enterprise a can't see tribal UMP/LR voters take them seriously as the "Gaullists" Fillipot has branded them as. Especially voters old enough to remember the OAS. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Babeuf on April 05, 2017, 10:41:14 AM especially since fillon is FAAAAAAAR more right-wing on economical issues and also dragged LR to the right. He and his (adopted) wing of the party (Manif Pour Tous, hard conservative types) have a lot of convergence with Marion Maréchal-Le Pen and her wing of the FN though. http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php (yes, I know sorry for the source) A lot of commentators have actually noted how Marine Le Pen's neither Left neither Right campaign backfired when Fillon was elected, because her only way to power was trying to entice the hard right of the LR into governing with her, while the 3 given candidates (Valls, Macron, Juppé) were presented as the centre-left. Personally, I just think it has to do with her father's legacy. And her niece can try a different strategy, unless they drop the idea that it is a Le Pen enterprise a can't see tribal UMP/LR voters take them seriously as the "Gaullists" Fillipot has branded them as. Especially voters old enough to remember the OAS. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 05, 2017, 10:47:37 AM especially since fillon is FAAAAAAAR more right-wing on economical issues and also dragged LR to the right. He and his (adopted) wing of the party (Manif Pour Tous, hard conservative types) have a lot of convergence with Marion Maréchal-Le Pen and her wing of the FN though. http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php (yes, I know sorry for the source) A lot of commentators have actually noted how Marine Le Pen's neither Left neither Right campaign backfired when Fillon was elected, because her only way to power was trying to entice the hard right of the LR into governing with her, while the 3 given candidates (Valls, Macron, Juppé) were presented as the centre-left. Personally, I just think it has to do with her father's legacy. And her niece can try a different strategy, unless they drop the idea that it is a Le Pen enterprise a can't see tribal UMP/LR voters take them seriously as the "Gaullists" Fillipot has branded them as. Especially voters old enough to remember the OAS. I think she is done after this election, yeah. Before the campaign started there was a lot of unrest between Fillipot and the hardliners like Maréchal-Le Pen. Whether MLP's niece takes over will depend on the internal party rustlings. I don't think Fillipot and all the acolytes FN has attracted stay in a party that becomes more in the JMLP mould. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on April 05, 2017, 10:48:28 AM So Marine's niece is a combination of Fillon's Thatcherism and social conservatism and FN's Euroscepticism? Basically what the FN used to be in the late 70s?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 05, 2017, 10:52:10 AM So Marine's niece is a combination of Fillon's Thatcherism and social conservatism and FN's Euroscepticism? Basically what the FN used to be in the late 70s? Yup, had some company too. () () Maréchal-Le Pen though also appeals to younger edgy, Jeunesse Identitaire types who try to push the boundaries, as well as this new wave of social reactionaries behind Manif Pour Tous. Still not enough to win an election but a much more dangerous force given the influence they could have in a fragmented system. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 05, 2017, 02:13:28 PM Another question for experts on French politics: Why doesn't Dupont-Aignan drop out and endorse Le Pen? He and his party seem to align with her (except for him wanting a quicker Frexit). Well it's too late to withdraw from the election officially. Other than that, the French far-right has many concerns, but electability is not one of them. To be fair, you could always go out and say "please don't vote for me, vote for her instead!", but with France's 2 round system it does not make that much sense, especially when Le Pen is almost guaranteed to go to the 2nd round Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 05, 2017, 03:10:43 PM Polls
OpinionWay Le Pen: 26% (=) Macron: 24% (=) Fillon: 20% (=) Mélenchon: 15% (=) Hamon: 10% (=) Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40% Ifop Le Pen: 25% (=) Macron: 24.5% (-0.5) Fillon: 18% (+0.5) Mélenchon: 16% (+0.5) Hamon: 9.5% (-0.5) Second round: Macron 59.5% (-1), Le Pen 40.5% Elabe, after the debate Macron: 23.5% (-2) Le Pen: 23.5% (-0.5) Fillon: 19% (+1) Mélenchon: 17% (+2) Hamon: 9% (-1) Second round: Macron 62%, Le Pen 38% A 4 horses race? The dynamic around Macron worries me a bit. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 05, 2017, 04:42:59 PM Polls OpinionWay Le Pen: 26% (=) Macron: 24% (=) Fillon: 20% (=) Mélenchon: 15% (=) Hamon: 10% (=) Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40% Ifop Le Pen: 25% (=) Macron: 24.5% (-0.5) Fillon: 18% (+0.5) Mélenchon: 16% (+0.5) Hamon: 9.5% (-0.5) Second round: Macron 59.5% (-1), Le Pen 40.5% Elabe, after the debate Macron: 23.5% (-2) Le Pen: 23.5% (-0.5) Fillon: 19% (+1) Mélenchon: 17% (+2) Hamon: 9% (-1) Second round: Macron 62%, Le Pen 38% A 4 horses race? The dynamic around Macron worries me a bit. To be honest I'm really surprised by the bad (non-)campaign of Macron, he is just lucky to have Fillon like his opponent and no other centrist candidates. 2 very bad campaigners for sure. Melanchon has the momentum and can still gain on hamon voters. But I don't think that he will be qualified. Polls tend to overestimated him. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 05, 2017, 05:03:43 PM After this election, the party dynamics will be very interesting to watch.
If Hamon does less than 10%, the PS will very probably explode. The left wing can't forgive Manuel Valls' perjury and treason. The centrist wing will say Hamon was never a viable candidate anyway. I don't see a future for this party. Same sh**t with Les Républicains. The centrist wing will be mad as hell about Fillon's scandals. The right wing will accuse them of betrayal because they tried to replace him. The party was convinced they deserved to win this year, their rage will be of epic proportions. The ego struggle will continue in the FN. Philippot has hinted that he may not stay his entire career in the party. But Marion Maréchal-Le Pen want to stay out of politics for a while after the election, probably to get private sector experience. The evil-looking Nicolas Bay may take the lead of their right-wing anti-Philippot opposition, I don't know where this will head. Mélenchon will also have to deal with the Communists, who constantly feel betrayed by La France Insoumise. Of course, that is if Macron wins. If he doesn't, he is the one who will be in deep sh**t. He may just as well disappear entirely after blowing such a lead. Also, I want to say: http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php (yes, I know sorry for the source) Le Figaro, while a very conservative paper, is usually a trustable source. Just don't read their opinion columnists. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 05, 2017, 09:05:22 PM These are usually more amusing than anything else you can glean from them, but France24 has made an English-version Vote Compass (https://votecompass.france24.com/president/home) for the election.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 05, 2017, 09:15:08 PM These are usually more amusing than anything else you can glean from them, but France24 has made an English-version Vote Compass (https://votecompass.france24.com/president/home) for the election. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Boston Bread on April 05, 2017, 09:29:24 PM 1. Hamon (68%)
2. Mélenchon (61%) 3. Arthaud (59%) 4. Cheminade (57%) 5. Poutou (56%) 6. Macron (53%) 7. Fillon (51%) 8. Dupont-Aignan (47%) 9. Le Pen (44%) The candidate rankings look correct, but not as polarized as I expected. My position on the compass was about where Cheminade was. I was surprised how left-leaning the candidates were on economics, especially Macron who is usually described as economically centrist, or even centre-right. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hydera on April 05, 2017, 09:58:17 PM ()
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on April 05, 2017, 10:00:21 PM Hamon 72%
Arthaud 68% Poutou 67% FBM 65% Mélenchon 60% Cheminade 56% NDA 53% Panzergirl 48% Fillon 46% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy on April 05, 2017, 10:13:29 PM Poutou80%
Hamon78% Arthaud76% Macron72% Mélenchon66% Cheminade60% Fillon51% Dupont-Aignan46% Le Pen39 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mencken on April 05, 2017, 10:31:17 PM Fillon 52%
Dupont-Aignan 43% Le Pen 41% Macron 39% Cheminade 31% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 05, 2017, 11:29:05 PM LOL, so this is basically the opposite of the Political Compass, where everyone is supposedly left-wing? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: nicholas.slaydon on April 06, 2017, 12:18:43 AM 1. Hamon (82%)
2. Mélenchon (75%) 3. Arthaud (63%) 4. Poutou (63%) 5. Cheminade (61%) 6. Macron (60%) LOL 7. Fillon (60%) LOL 8. Le Pen (60%) LOL 9. Dupont-Aignan (53%) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 06, 2017, 01:01:55 AM Hamon 68%
Macron 67% Arthaud 66% Mélenchon 64% Poutou 63% Cheminade 60% Dupont-Aignan 57% Fillon 55% Le Pen 44% Poll this morning Harris Interactive for France Télévisions (http://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/presidentielle/presidentielle-macron-et-le-pen-toujours-en-tete-melenchon-rattrape-fillon-selon-un-sondage-harris-interactive-pour-france-televisions_2131743.html) Around a 5,000 sample, 2,000 of them post debate Macron: 25% (-1, last poll March 22) Le Pen: 24% (-1) Fillon: 18% (=) Mélenchon: 17% (+3.5) Hamon: 9% (-3.5) Second round: Macron 62%, Le Pen 38% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 06, 2017, 01:07:17 AM So it looks like my dream (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180174.msg5594639#msg5594639) might very well come true. That's not a good thing.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 06, 2017, 01:18:25 AM ()
That looks about right. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: warandwar on April 06, 2017, 01:42:05 AM I was like 88% Melanchon 85% Arthaud/Poutou, 83% Hamon.
Poutou is by far the most likeable candidate for me. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on April 06, 2017, 03:06:52 AM So it looks like my dream (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180174.msg5594639#msg5594639) might very well come true. That's not a good thing. It's more and more shaping up to be a mirror of the Austrian 1st round ... Le Pen = Hofer (or even closer: Strache), the established candidates from the Far-Right Macron = Griss (the unused centrist candidates) Melenchon = Van der Bellen (the rising leftist shootingstars) Fillon = Khol (the used candidates from the disgraced center-right) Hamon = Hundstorfer (the used candidates from the disgraced center-left) Dupont = Lugner (the weird right-liberal candidates) There is one major difference between Austria 1.0 and France 1.0 though: Fillon has a better standing than Khol did (17-20% vs. 11%), so Le Pen will not reach 35% like Hofer, but will top out at 28% at best. Except for the fact that the far-right candidate will come in first to loose in the second round it's barely anything like the Austrian presidential race. You just always need to find a way to bring Austrian politics into everything. ::) The fact that you put an equal sign between the far-left demagogue Melenchon and the respected centrist Green Van Der Bellen show how far-fetched you have to to be make it "the same", and even then it doesn't work because Melenchon is no where close to come in second at the moment, still polling around 15-17% in most polls and thus in fourth place. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 06, 2017, 03:21:00 AM So it looks like my dream (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180174.msg5594639#msg5594639) might very well come true. That's not a good thing. It's more and more shaping up to be a mirror of the Austrian 1st round ... Le Pen = Hofer (or even closer: Strache), the established candidates from the Far-Right Macron = Griss (the unused centrist candidates) Melenchon = Van der Bellen (the rising leftist shootingstars) Fillon = Khol (the used candidates from the disgraced center-right) Hamon = Hundstorfer (the used candidates from the disgraced center-left) Dupont = Lugner (the weird right-liberal candidates) There is one major difference between Austria 1.0 and France 1.0 though: Fillon has a better standing than Khol did (17-20% vs. 11%), so Le Pen will not reach 35% like Hofer, but will top out at 28% at best. Except for the fact that the far-right candidate will come in first to loose in the second round it's barely anything like the Austrian presidential race. You just always need to find a way to bring Austrian politics into everything. ::) The fact that you put an equal sign between the far-left demagogue Melenchon and the respected centrist Green Van Der Bellen show how far-fetched you have to to be make it "the same", and even then it doesn't work because Melenchon is no where close to come in second at the moment, still polling around 15-17% in most polls and thus in fourth place. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obsessive%E2%80%93compulsive_disorder Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Velasco on April 06, 2017, 05:01:12 AM How much you agree with the candidates:
Benoit Hamon 77% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 75% Philippe Poutou 72% Nathalie Arthaud 71% Emmanuel Macron 64% Jacques Cheminade 61% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 60% François Fillon 52% Marine Le Pen 52% (Excessive "somewhat agree" and "somewhat disagree" replies; maybe I'm a bit like BFM) Melenchon = Van der Bellen (the rising leftist shootingstars) They resemble each other like an egg to a chestnut :D :D :D Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 06, 2017, 05:20:10 AM Hamon 77%
Arthaud 77% Melenchon 73% Poutou 72% Cheminade 65% Macron 56% Dupont-Aignan 46% Le Pen 44% Fillon 40% Dissapointing to see that Poutou isn't taking off in the polls after the debate Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 06, 2017, 05:23:39 AM I'd say the "Van der Bellen of France" is indeed Emmanuel Macron. Not only because it will be his task to stop the far-right candidate in the presidential run-off, but also because they seem to be the most similar candidates ideologically.
Van der Bellen also ran as a nominally independent candidate, because ideologically he stands a bit to the right of his own party, while Macron is independent because he's more right-wing than his former party, the Socialists. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Sorenroy on April 06, 2017, 07:25:21 AM I honestly don't follow international politics very closely, but you can't dangle a poll in front of my face and expect me not to take it. There were several questions I put down "I don't know" for, including all of the questions asking about the candidates (do you trust so and so, etc.), and several that I probably would have answered differently if I knew more about French politics. That being said, here are my results:
Hamon — 71% Poutou — 62% Melenchon — 60% Arthaud — 60% Macron — 59% Le Pen — 53% Fillon — 51% Dupont-Aignan — 45% Cheminade — 42% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 06, 2017, 07:37:17 AM My results:
Hamon 66% Arthaud 63% Macron 60% Poutou 58% Mélenchon 54% Fillon 51% Cheminade 50% Le Pen 47% Dupont-Aignan 47% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on April 06, 2017, 08:34:41 AM Fillon 69%
Macron 53% Dupont-Aignan 51% Cheminade 42% Hamon 38% Le Pen 37% Arthaud 34% Poutou 33% Mélenchon 28% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 06, 2017, 08:57:50 AM Macron 63%
Fillon 60% Dupont-Aignan 50% Hamon 49% Arthaud 49% Poutou 48% Le Pen 44% Cheminade 41% Melenchon 39% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on April 06, 2017, 09:38:30 AM Hahahaha:
Macron: 65% Arthaud: 62% Poutou: 55% Hamon: 54% Fillon: 53% Cheminade: 49% Melenchon: 43% Dupont-Aignan: 42% Le Pen: 38% I'm either a liberal internationalist or a hardcore communist. I don't even know how that happened, but it placed me as super-social-liberal but just left-of-center (about right), which is far from everyone, so I guess it's not a big surprise. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on April 06, 2017, 11:24:13 AM Macron 72%
Hamon 61% Arthaud 59% Poutou 58% Fillon 54% Melenchon 51% Cheminade 49% Dupont-Aignan 48% Le Pen 36% Pretty much as expected. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 06, 2017, 11:27:34 AM Jean-Luc Mélenchon 82%
Benoit Hamon 78% Philippe Poutou 77% Nathalie Arthaud 72% Jacques Cheminade 66% Marine Le Pen 53% Emmanuel Macron 51% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 51% François Fillon 46% Weird that NDA is that low, I actually kinda like him. Also, sad that Asselineau and Lassalle were not in the compass. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 06, 2017, 01:00:56 PM Hahahaha: Macron: 65% Arthaud: 62% Poutou: 55% Hamon: 54% Fillon: 53% Cheminade: 49% Melenchon: 43% Dupont-Aignan: 42% Le Pen: 38% I'm either a liberal internationalist or a hardcore communist. I don't even know how that happened, but it placed me as super-social-liberal but just left-of-center (about right), which is far from everyone, so I guess it's not a big surprise. I had something similar. Its just sh**tty algorithms in the case of the Trotskyites, plus I think the fact that I said Macron had more chance of winning/ was more competent. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 06, 2017, 01:10:44 PM Hamon: 74%
Arthaud: 74% Poutou: 69% Mélenchon: 66% Macron: 65% Cheminade: 56% Dupont-Aignan: 53% Fillon: 49% Le Pen: 45% It's a shame that Hamon is polling so dreadfully this year, as in a more normal election, I'd back him without a second thought. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Vosem on April 06, 2017, 03:33:19 PM Amusingly, I got LePen and Melenchon dead last, even after all the cranks.
Fillon: 61% Macron: 50% Dupont-Aignan: 46% Hamon: 42% Cheminade: 38% Poutou: 37% Arthaud: 36% Le Pen: 35% Melenchon: 32% I applied weights, but the numbers barely shifted (Poutou, Arthaud, and Melenchon all fell, with the first two falling behind Le Pen even though she barely declined to 34; while Fillon, Macron, and Dupont-Aignan all surged but stayed in the same order). Would still vote Macron, though. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 06, 2017, 04:46:50 PM Fillon: 59%
Dupont-Aignan: 49% Le Pen: 45% Macron: 40% Cheminade: 35% Poutou: 27% Hamon: 26% Melenchon: 24% Arthaud: 23% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Mike88 on April 06, 2017, 04:58:56 PM Fillon: 64%
Macron: 60% Dupont-Aignan: 51% Hamon: 50% Cheminade: 46% Le Pen: 44% Mélenchon: 39% Arthaud: 39% Poutou: 38% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 06, 2017, 05:19:14 PM Just a quick word : in 2012, Mélenchon had already climbed up to 17%. But it was in only one poll. This time around, he seems to really be closing in on the leading trio. I would still advise to be careful about those figures. I'd reckon you'll have to take a couple of points from his polling numbers to get his actual voting score. A number of people I know and like, who are somewhat clever human beings, want to vote Mélenchon but are still afraid of a Fillon-Le Pen runoff and will end up voting Macron to avoid that, at least with the present situation.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hnv1 on April 06, 2017, 05:27:17 PM My results are quite bizarre and I was far off everyone on the chart.
60% Fillon 55% Macron 52% Hamon 43% La pen 41% melenchon I would vote Macron if I were French Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 06, 2017, 06:18:46 PM Here are mine :
Poutou 82% Mélenchon 81% Hamon 79% Arthaud 79% Cheminade 66% Macron 60% Dupont-Aignan 54% Le Pen 49% Fillon 43% which is pretty much exactly how I'd rank them in order of who I agree with, except of course Cheminade who really isn't anywhere near his position on this graph. On the graph, I end up just between Poutou and Hamon, up there on the left, but I've been decided to vote Mélenchon for a while now. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Bumaye on April 06, 2017, 06:38:11 PM It's funny, I always feel like I'm doing "good" in these polls. Did a similar one for the German state of Schleswig-Holstein the other day and had the CDU down at 25%. In the one for Baden-Würtemberg before the last election I had Die Linke at 96,2% - I was virtually a walking Die Linke program.
Well, here are my results. I expected Hamon to be first but then again I have no idea about Arthaud: Arthaud: 78% Hamon: 76% Poutou: 73% Mélenchon: 70% Macron: 62% Chiminade: 55% Dupont-Aigner: 49% Fillon: 45% Le Pen: 44% Somewhat funny that beautiful flawless Emmanuel is rather low in this while on the political landscape thingy my point is basically on his. () Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 06, 2017, 06:46:22 PM It's funny, I always feel like I'm doing "good" in these polls. Did a similar one for the German state of Schleswig-Holstein the other day and had the CDU down at 25%. In the one for Baden-Würtemberg before the last election I had Die Linke at 96,2% - I was virtually a walking Die Linke program. Well, here are my results. I expected Hamon to be first but then again I have no idea about Arthaud: Arthaud: 78% Hamon: 76% Poutou: 73% Mélenchon: 70% Macron: 62% Chiminade: 55% Dupont-Aigner: 49% Fillon: 45% Le Pen: 44% Somewhat funny that beautiful flawless Emmanuel is rather low in this while on the political landscape thingy my point is basically on his. () Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: TheSaint250 on April 06, 2017, 06:48:50 PM Just wondering:
Let's say that out of nowhere Mélenchon very narrowly edges out Macron and is to face Le Pen in the runoff. Who would win? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 06, 2017, 06:51:56 PM Just wondering: Let's say that out of nowhere Mélenchon very narrowly edges out Macron and is to face Le Pen in the runoff. Who would win? all bets are off then, imho but i would guess le pen. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on April 06, 2017, 07:08:43 PM Arthaud's the candidate for Lutte Ouvrier - Workers' Struggle. It's a Trotskyist Sect. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 06, 2017, 08:27:30 PM Just wondering: Let's say that out of nowhere Mélenchon very narrowly edges out Macron and is to face Le Pen in the runoff. Who would win? For what it's worth (not much), Mélenchon crushes Le Pen in the only poll made about this possible runoff: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2017#Le_Pen_-_M.C3.A9lenchon More polls about hypothetical second rounds are coming though, according to the Edit: it's actually the Poll Commission (source in French: https://www.marianne.net/politique/presidentielle-jean-luc-melenchon-pourrait-bientot-apparaitre-dans-des-sondages-de-second). Praise the bureaucracy. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ilikeverin on April 06, 2017, 09:41:58 PM With weights:
Arthaud 72% Macron 71% Hamon 68% Poutou 66% Cheminade 59% Mélenchon 52% Dupont-Aignan 51% Fillon 46% Le Pen 35% Unsurprisingly, my Le Pen score dropped through the floor after I said I cared about immigration and "French culture" the most! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 06, 2017, 11:20:42 PM Seeing as there is (rightly so) no thread for the legislative elections yet, I just thought I'd post in here.
En Marche has announced its first candidates for the June election, not that it's particularly important. Even if Macron wins, I can't see EM getting more than 50 seats, at the most. If he loses, the whole thing obviously folds very quickly. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: peterthlee on April 06, 2017, 11:20:51 PM Just wondering: Let's say that out of nowhere Mélenchon very narrowly edges out Macron and is to face Le Pen in the runoff. Who would win? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on April 07, 2017, 02:21:14 AM Melenchon's best hope in that scenario would be to pivot hard to the whole "abolish the president" part of his platform.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 07, 2017, 04:39:28 AM Four out of the five main candidates in the French presidential election support a relaxation of the country’s cannabis laws. Under the current law, first passed in 1970, taking any illegal drug carries the risk of a one-year prison sentence and a fine of up to 3,750 euros. However cannabis remains one of the most popular illegal drugs in France, with 47 per cent of 17-year-olds saying they have tried it, according to a recent survey by the French Observatory for Drugs and Addiction.
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, currently leading polls for the first round of voting on 23 April, and right-wing candidate Francois Fillon, have both said police should issue warnings and on-the-spot fines for cannabis use. Left-wing candidates Jean-Luc Melenchon and Benoit Hamon have said the drug should be legalised, while only Marine Le Pen, of the far-right Front National, is against any change to the law.“It’s a completely crazy idea. Instead we must use every force available to us to fight against drugs and drug dealers,” Ms Le Pen’s presidential campaign director David Rachline told radio station France 2 in October. Source - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-election-presidential-candidates-cannabis-laws-marijuana-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-a7669706.html Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 07, 2017, 04:45:18 AM Having refused to pose with the others for the official photograph, saying “they’re not my colleagues”, Poutou (whose name means “little kiss” in French) told Le Pen that ordinary workers did not have the option of ignoring a legal summons.
“Since January, it’s been a feast. Fillon? Nothing but affairs; the more one digs the more one smells corruption and cheating ... it’s the same with Marine Le Pen, they’re pinching from public funds, and the FN, which is supposed to be anti-system, isn’t bothered because it’s protected thanks to parliamentary immunity.” He arrived at the studio wearing a beige T-shirt – in stark contrast to the other male candidates all in suits and ties – and was combative from the start. Asked to introduce himself, he said: “I’m a factory worker and apart from Nathalie Arthaud, I believe I’m the only one to have a normal job”, adding that he was against the “indecent rich”. When the moderators pointed out he was running over the time limit, Poutou said: “Just because I’m not wearing a tie, doesn’t mean you can interrupt me.” At one point he added: “Everyone is fed up with corrupt politicians, and some here know that.” This time his slogan is: “Our lives not their profits.” Full Article - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/05/french-election-factory-worker-philippe-poutou-emerges-as-star-of-tv-debate Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 07, 2017, 04:52:36 AM Post - Debate Results - Elabe Poll - Sample - 1024
Most Convincing - Melenchon - 25% Macron - 21% Fillion - 15% La Pen - 11% Best plans for France - Macron - 23% Melenchon - 22% Fillon - 18% Le Pen - 15% Source - http://www.politico.eu/article/melenchon-won-french-presidential-debate-poll/ (Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 07, 2017, 05:15:13 AM (Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well I don't think Hamon can withdraw, as it would relinquish the hold his faction in the PS finally have over the party. They can blame the result on Hollande. While its imploding its still a usefull tool for the legislatives, as discussed previously. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 07, 2017, 05:21:11 AM Some reactions after the US strike on Syria
-Macron said yesterday, before the strike, that he was in favor of a military operation under the UN -Le Pen is surprised by Trump's decision to "become the policeman of the world" -Fillon "understands" the American strike but warns about a confrontation West-Russia -Hamon: Assad is the only responsible for the strike -Mélenchon: no reaction yet after the strike, he said yesterday that the crime must be punished. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 07, 2017, 05:31:05 AM the "true left" ps candidate sounds most hawkish? interesting.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 07, 2017, 05:52:24 AM (Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well I don't think Hamon can withdraw, as it would relinquish the hold his faction in the PS finally have over the party. They can blame the result on Hollande. While its imploding its still a usefull tool for the legislatives, as discussed previously. Add to that, if Hamon withdraws now, then the PS will obviously miss the 5% threshold to have their campaign costs refunded. So there is obviously a huge financial incentive to stay in. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2017, 10:35:13 AM Latest Odoxa poll
Macron 23.5 (-2.5) Le Pen 23.0 (-2.0) Fillon 18.0 (+1.5) Melenchon 18.0 (+2.0) Hamon 9.0 (+1.0) Melenchon peaking at the right time. If this poll is true and Hamon falls another point of two then most of his support might just tactically vote Melenchon Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 07, 2017, 11:09:22 AM Tracking polls
OpinonWay Le Pen: 25% (=) Macron: 24% (=) Fillon: 20% (=) Mélenchon: 16% (=) Hamon: 10% (=) Second round: Macron 62% (+2), Le Pen 38% Ifop Le Pen: 24.5% (=) Macron: 23.5% (-0.5) Fillon: 18.5% (=) Mélenchon: 17% (+0.5) Hamon: 9% Second round: Macron 59%, Le Pen 41% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DavidB. on April 07, 2017, 11:30:04 AM Some reactions after the US strike on Syria -Macron said yesterday, before the strike, that he was in favor of a military operation under the UN -Le Pen is surprised by Trump's decision to "become the policeman of the world" -Fillon "understands" the American strike but warns about a confrontation West-Russia -Hamon: Assad is the only responsible for the strike -Mélenchon: no reaction yet after the strike, he said yesterday that the crime must be punished. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 07, 2017, 11:49:30 AM (Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well I don't think Hamon can withdraw, as it would relinquish the hold his faction in the PS finally have over the party. They can blame the result on Hollande. While its imploding its still a usefull tool for the legislatives, as discussed previously. Add to that, if Hamon withdraws now, then the PS will obviously miss the 5% threshold to have their campaign costs refunded. So there is obviously a huge financial incentive to stay in. Exactly. And as most of the leadership (and probably Harmon himself) would prefer Macron over Melenchon, there would be no incentive to do that. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Beet on April 07, 2017, 11:51:32 AM (Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well I don't think Hamon can withdraw, as it would relinquish the hold his faction in the PS finally have over the party. They can blame the result on Hollande. While its imploding its still a usefull tool for the legislatives, as discussed previously. Add to that, if Hamon withdraws now, then the PS will obviously miss the 5% threshold to have their campaign costs refunded. So there is obviously a huge financial incentive to stay in. Exactly. And as most of the leadership (and probably Harmon himself) would prefer Macron over Melenchon, there would be no incentive to do that. If Hamon was doing well people would have pointed it as more proof "Boinie woulda won!!$!" Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Sorenroy on April 07, 2017, 12:26:04 PM Looking at Wikipedia's polling average, it looks like Le Pen, for the first time, has taken first place (I know France has two rounds, but still):
() (I would resize the image, but I sadly don't know how to do that.) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 07, 2017, 12:32:15 PM For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.
Poll BVA Macron: 23% (-2) Le Pen: 23% (-1) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (+4) Hamon: 8.5% (-3) Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on April 07, 2017, 12:43:33 PM Wow, Melenchon really is surging. He turned from a factor taking votes away from PS to a real threat, like Le Pen. I'm really worried by whats's happening to Macron's numbers.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 07, 2017, 12:47:22 PM I'll admit, part of me would love to see a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 07, 2017, 12:55:26 PM lol
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 07, 2017, 12:55:49 PM i am afraid of le pen - melenchon.
france must not go into isolation.... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 07, 2017, 12:57:46 PM For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years. Poll BVA Macron: 23% (-2) Le Pen: 23% (-1) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (+4) Hamon: 8.5% (-3) Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39% Sample Size 1421 & date is 5-7th April. Macron-Le Pen together have gone down to 46-47% from 50-52% & Melenchon-Hamon together have changed from 25% to 27.5% odd. The left is drawing more, even though Hamon is falling. Melenchon has drawn an average of 4% after each debate. My french friend told there would be something like another debate/forum before the run-off. Because if there is one, then Melenchon could well cross 20% & be a shade behind the Front 2 as he's a fantastic orator. If Melenchon is within 1-2% points, a share of Hamon voters will re-consider wasting their votes. And turnout will be the key too, Melenchon's website has the highest hits & he has energized his base ! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on April 07, 2017, 01:03:12 PM I figured that Macron's polling surge would prove to be temporary as he really is a paper tiger candidate but I never figured that a communist dinosaur would be the cause of this. To be fair, Melenchon appears to be drawing votes from all directions (?). This election is bizarre.
Anyways, it's not terribly shocking that polling is very volatile in a year where both the PS and the LR are in a state of disarray. This has meant that both Le Pen and Macron have coalitions that are fairly diffuse; Le Pen has a solid core of supporters that's rather large but a non-negligible minority are from "neither left nor right" types who weren't FN supporters until recently. It goes without saying that Macron's coalition is very unstable. There's plenty of small-s socialists who were prepared to vote for him and loads of right-wingers who were prepared to do so. I'm not sure why I posted this honestly. My point is that Melenchon probably has room to grow from Le Pen, Hamon and Macron. Time to hit the panic button if you're a neo-liberal. Hit the blunt if you're a true comrade and lover of communism. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 2952-0-0 on April 07, 2017, 01:12:16 PM What if the runoff is Melenchon/Macron? Any polls?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 07, 2017, 01:47:24 PM The dynamics of the race are ... interesting to say the least. You may rejoice if you support Mélenchon, worry if you support Macron.
But at his hour Mélenchon is not near to top Macron for the second round. Maybe it would change in a week, maybe not. For example yesterday Macron had a 2 hours prime-time interview, he attracted a record TV rating for the show, according to a flash poll he convinced 47% of the people (before him the best score was for Le Pen at 41%), 51% see him as a good president (before him the best score was 38% for Le Pen), maybe this show will have an impact in the next days in the dynamics for Macron (or not). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on April 07, 2017, 01:56:28 PM If it's Melenchon vs Le Pen, I really don't know who would I support. Melenchon might be slightly better.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: JA on April 07, 2017, 03:20:35 PM For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years. Poll BVA Macron: 23% (-2) Le Pen: 23% (-1) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (+4) Hamon: 8.5% (-3) Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39% YES! It's time for Hamon to dropout and endorse Mélenchon like I said almost a month ago. He is the only chance the French left has at winning the Presidency. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 07, 2017, 03:37:50 PM For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years. Poll BVA Macron: 23% (-2) Le Pen: 23% (-1) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (+4) Hamon: 8.5% (-3) Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39% YES! It's time for Hamon to dropout and endorse Mélenchon like I said almost a month ago. He is the only chance the French left has at winning the Presidency. Méluche's campaign is a walking contradiction
He'd turn out just like Tsipras. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 07, 2017, 03:41:31 PM i would still vote melenchon over russian puppet nr1 but.....not feeling good about france.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 07, 2017, 04:28:11 PM The way things are going, don't be too surprised if the run off ends up Lassalle - Asselineau
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2017, 04:42:32 PM For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years. Poll BVA Macron: 23% (-2) Le Pen: 23% (-1) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (+4) Hamon: 8.5% (-3) Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39% YES! It's time for Hamon to dropout and endorse Mélenchon like I said almost a month ago. He is the only chance the French left has at winning the Presidency. And the only chance for Le Pen to win in the second round. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 07, 2017, 04:43:53 PM For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years. Poll BVA Macron: 23% (-2) Le Pen: 23% (-1) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (+4) Hamon: 8.5% (-3) Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39% YES! It's time for Hamon to dropout and endorse Mélenchon like I said almost a month ago. He is the only chance the French left has at winning the Presidency. And the only chance for Le Pen to win in the second round. That would be Fillon. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 07, 2017, 04:46:20 PM Have there been any serious polls on Melenchon vs Le Pen? I see on wikipedis there is one with 68%-32% but I cant really believe he would do better than Macron would
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 07, 2017, 05:01:26 PM Remember that the French far-left and right look at any attempt to further electability as a "betrayal of values," etc.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 07, 2017, 05:05:36 PM In case anyone is wondering about how different demographics are lining up to vote. IFOP has a pretty cool tracker that you can use to see how their polls have evolved, including demographic breakdowns, party identity, evolutions of "certainty to vote" and all that.
click here (http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/HNS/HNSAdmin/start.appli?appid=60930&logonUser=USERWEB&logonPswcd=ZnJhbmNvaXNF) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on April 07, 2017, 05:07:09 PM Mélenchon is the one candidate that would make me support Le Pen. I'd take Hamon over Le Pen though. Fillon also seems to have a slight bump in the last couple of polls btw.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DavidB. on April 07, 2017, 05:13:43 PM Thanks, parochial boy, very interesting! According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 07, 2017, 05:17:01 PM According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%. Not really. The electorate is (once again) thoroughly turned off by the major parties as I'd say as many who are supporting the alternatives are just abstaining. Of course, this could just be an effect of polling as well--begrudgingly going to vote but refusing to play any other part in the election. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on April 07, 2017, 06:15:05 PM Thanks, parochial boy, very interesting! According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 07, 2017, 06:16:33 PM Thanks, parochial boy, very interesting! According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%. I would think about 70, but who knows. I think a lot of people would rather say they're not interested. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 07, 2017, 06:18:45 PM Thanks, parochial boy, very interesting! According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%. I would think about 70, but who knows. I think a lot of people would rather say they're not interested. Which would still be better than the US in about any year, but that's not much of a bar to set. :P Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 07, 2017, 06:52:16 PM Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum. He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 07, 2017, 07:04:07 PM Sorry to double post, but Jean Lassalle just did this:
() Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YH476oLSYj8 I'm... amazed. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 07, 2017, 07:11:35 PM The way things are going, don't be too surprised if the run off ends up Lassalle - Asselineau I'd sign for that! :D The good thing about my candidate polling dead fifth is that I'm much less invested in what happens to the other four. Basically as long as Fillon is out of the runoff, I'll shrug it off. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 07, 2017, 11:02:25 PM Leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose poll scores are rising, set the ball rolling by suggesting he would not take part in a live debate so close to the first round. He had already complained in March about TV channels’ scheduling of debates, arguing that their dates clashed with his own campaign planning. Mélenchon, a firebrand who appeared less radical onstage than far-left candidates Nathalie Arthaud and Philippe Poutou, gets more mileage out of rallies and town-hall style Youtube broadcasts.
Instead of a debate France 2 plans to conduct 10-minute interviews on the same date with each of the contestants. If one of them refuses, there will be no political show on April 20. http://www.politico.eu/article/france-2-tv-cancels-2nd-presidential-debate/ Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 07, 2017, 11:50:50 PM I got -
Benoit Hamon 77% Nathalie Arthaud 75% Philippe Poutou 74% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 73% Jacques Cheminade 60% Emmanuel Macron 59% Marine Le Pen 50% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 46% François Fillon 42% Among the major candidates - Hamon 77%, Melenchon 73%, Macron 59%, Le Pen 50% (God knows how!!!), Fillon 42% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Boston Bread on April 08, 2017, 12:03:14 AM Melenchon has an online video game now: http://fiscalkombat.fr/
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 08, 2017, 12:29:16 AM Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum. He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties. Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 08, 2017, 01:28:17 AM Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum. He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties. Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical. What exactly did he say? There is something good to praise about everyone but the devil is in the details. I am sure he didn't say I support Castro's dictatorship etc! Links? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on April 08, 2017, 02:48:26 AM Melenchon has an online video game now: http://fiscalkombat.fr/ Requires a computer? WTF. I want to play it on my Minitel. Also, this Mélenchon surge is fascinating. I'm not sure who the top two will be. I'd guess Le Pen will be in it, but I'd say Macron and Le Pen should be worrying about losing their spot to Mélenchon. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 08, 2017, 03:42:13 AM Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum. He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties. Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical. What exactly did he say? There is something good to praise about everyone but the devil is in the details. I am sure he didn't say I support Castro's dictatorship etc! Links? http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/video/2016/10/10/ce-que-jean-luc-melenchon-aurait-fait-face-a-robespierre_5011125_823448.html Here's a program where he tries his best to be an apologist of Robespierre, and he is also quoted as saying his old Parti de Gauche was the spiritual successor of the movement. http://www.humanite.fr/melenchon-chavez-cest-lideal-inepuisable-de-lesperance-humaniste-de-la-revolution Chavez was an "Indefatigable idea of humanist hope" http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/mort-de-fidel-castro-l-hommage-de-jean-luc-melenchon-rassemble-200-personnes-a-paris-1063941.html Pays tribute in wonderful terms to Castro. I'll get the ONPC when he talks about Ahamdenijad later. He definitely cosied up to the anti-imp movement that basically think the US is the source of all problems in the world. As evidence by his stance on Syria and his cosying up to Putin. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Intell on April 08, 2017, 03:59:44 AM Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum. He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties. Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical. What exactly did he say? There is something good to praise about everyone but the devil is in the details. I am sure he didn't say I support Castro's dictatorship etc! Links? http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/video/2016/10/10/ce-que-jean-luc-melenchon-aurait-fait-face-a-robespierre_5011125_823448.html Here's a program where he tries his best to be an apologist of Robespierre, and he is also quoted as saying his old Parti de Gauche was the spiritual successor of the movement. http://www.humanite.fr/melenchon-chavez-cest-lideal-inepuisable-de-lesperance-humaniste-de-la-revolution Chavez was an "Indefatigable idea of humanist hope" http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/mort-de-fidel-castro-l-hommage-de-jean-luc-melenchon-rassemble-200-personnes-a-paris-1063941.html Pays tribute in wonderful terms to Castro. I'll get the ONPC when he talks about Ahamdenijad later. He definitely cosied up to the anti-imp movement that basically think the US is the source of all problems in the world. As evidence by his stance on Syria and his cosying up to Putin. Robespierre was a great socialist, so that's nice, and Castro's done a lot to get his country rid of the US banna state, and improved living standards a lot and has one of the highest social developments in Latin America, albeit the dictatorship is horrible, and that country needs to move towards being a democracy. What's his stance in syria, that we shouldn't bomb and air strike Syriaa? Ahamdenijad, what did he say was good about him before before? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 08, 2017, 04:30:13 AM Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum. He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties. Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical. What exactly did he say? There is something good to praise about everyone but the devil is in the details. I am sure he didn't say I support Castro's dictatorship etc! Links? http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/video/2016/10/10/ce-que-jean-luc-melenchon-aurait-fait-face-a-robespierre_5011125_823448.html Here's a program where he tries his best to be an apologist of Robespierre, and he is also quoted as saying his old Parti de Gauche was the spiritual successor of the movement. http://www.humanite.fr/melenchon-chavez-cest-lideal-inepuisable-de-lesperance-humaniste-de-la-revolution Chavez was an "Indefatigable idea of humanist hope" http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/mort-de-fidel-castro-l-hommage-de-jean-luc-melenchon-rassemble-200-personnes-a-paris-1063941.html Pays tribute in wonderful terms to Castro. I'll get the ONPC when he talks about Ahamdenijad later. He definitely cosied up to the anti-imp movement that basically think the US is the source of all problems in the world. As evidence by his stance on Syria and his cosying up to Putin. Both were some eulogies in death, so I would cut him some slack - I didn't like the Chavez stuff, way too much praise, ohh progressive this & healthcare & what not! Castro stuff was okay, small praise & he admitted Castro made mistakes. Him gushing over Chavez was too much IMO. But atleast Chavez was somewhat democratic & won elections unlike Castro who ran a dictatorship. He's probably too left IMO & beyond the "Socialist" Hamon but not a communist or a dictator. I also thought Hamon would be better ! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 08, 2017, 04:46:34 AM Yesterday, Fillon compared himself to Vercingetorix, winner of battle of Gergovia (52 BC) against Julius Caesar "the frontrunner in the polls".
The downside of this is that he did not say that ultimately Julius Caesar won the second round in Alesia. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on April 08, 2017, 06:26:10 AM Yesterday, Fillon compared himself to Vercingetorix, winner of battle of Gergovia (52 BC) against Julius Caesar "the frontrunner in the polls". The downside of this is that he did not say that ultimately Julius Caesar won the second round in Alesia. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 08, 2017, 06:36:39 AM ()
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 08, 2017, 07:30:03 AM Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum. He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties. Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical. What exactly did he say? There is something good to praise about everyone but the devil is in the details. I am sure he didn't say I support Castro's dictatorship etc! Links? http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/video/2016/10/10/ce-que-jean-luc-melenchon-aurait-fait-face-a-robespierre_5011125_823448.html Here's a program where he tries his best to be an apologist of Robespierre, and he is also quoted as saying his old Parti de Gauche was the spiritual successor of the movement. http://www.humanite.fr/melenchon-chavez-cest-lideal-inepuisable-de-lesperance-humaniste-de-la-revolution Chavez was an "Indefatigable idea of humanist hope" http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/mort-de-fidel-castro-l-hommage-de-jean-luc-melenchon-rassemble-200-personnes-a-paris-1063941.html Pays tribute in wonderful terms to Castro. I'll get the ONPC when he talks about Ahamdenijad later. He definitely cosied up to the anti-imp movement that basically think the US is the source of all problems in the world. As evidence by his stance on Syria and his cosying up to Putin. Robespierre was a great socialist, so that's nice, and Castro's done a lot to get his country rid of the US banna state, and improved living standards a lot and has one of the highest social developments in Latin America, albeit the dictatorship is horrible, and that country needs to move towards being a democracy. What's his stance in syria, that we shouldn't bomb and air strike Syriaa? Ahamdenijad, what did he say was good about him before before? The point is that when his sympathisers say "muh he's not a communist", not only are they being patronising (we can all read Méluche's economic program, he is not a M-L), they are also ignoring the deeper issue that Mélenchon's foreign policy seems to be a relic of Cold War binary geopolitics, replacing Capitalism vs Communism with Western Imperialism vs Anti-Imperialism. The result is a ridiculously desperate attempt to justify any senseless, authoritarian tinpot regime that pisses off Uncle Sam, and the belief that eliminating American hegemony in Europe relies on cosying up to Russia. I wonder how Mélenchon's puff speeches over Russia in the European Parliament go down with his supporters on here? Tirnam has already showed what his stance on Syria is : Pro-Assad, pro Russia Anti-US. He even said Putin was going to "sort out" Syria on ONPC. The same black-white world his supporters love to be nostalgic of. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SNJ1985 on April 08, 2017, 07:55:40 AM These are usually more amusing than anything else you can glean from them, but France24 has made an English-version Vote Compass (https://votecompass.france24.com/president/home) for the election. Marine Le Pen: 59% François Fillon: 57% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: 42% Emmanuel Macron: 36% Jacques Cheminade: 31% Benoit Hamon: 20% Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 20% Philippe Poutou: 17% Nathalie Arthaud: 14% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Intell on April 08, 2017, 08:24:32 AM Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum. He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties. Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical. What exactly did he say? There is something good to praise about everyone but the devil is in the details. I am sure he didn't say I support Castro's dictatorship etc! Links? http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/video/2016/10/10/ce-que-jean-luc-melenchon-aurait-fait-face-a-robespierre_5011125_823448.html Here's a program where he tries his best to be an apologist of Robespierre, and he is also quoted as saying his old Parti de Gauche was the spiritual successor of the movement. http://www.humanite.fr/melenchon-chavez-cest-lideal-inepuisable-de-lesperance-humaniste-de-la-revolution Chavez was an "Indefatigable idea of humanist hope" http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/mort-de-fidel-castro-l-hommage-de-jean-luc-melenchon-rassemble-200-personnes-a-paris-1063941.html Pays tribute in wonderful terms to Castro. I'll get the ONPC when he talks about Ahamdenijad later. He definitely cosied up to the anti-imp movement that basically think the US is the source of all problems in the world. As evidence by his stance on Syria and his cosying up to Putin. Robespierre was a great socialist, so that's nice, and Castro's done a lot to get his country rid of the US banna state, and improved living standards a lot and has one of the highest social developments in Latin America, albeit the dictatorship is horrible, and that country needs to move towards being a democracy. What's his stance in syria, that we shouldn't bomb and air strike Syriaa? Ahamdenijad, what did he say was good about him before before? The point is that when his sympathisers say "muh he's not a communist", not only are they being patronising (we can all read Méluche's economic program, he is not a M-L), they are also ignoring the deeper issue that Mélenchon's foreign policy seems to be a relic of Cold War binary geopolitics, replacing Capitalism vs Communism with Western Imperialism vs Anti-Imperialism. The result is a ridiculously desperate attempt to justify any senseless, authoritarian tinpot regime that pisses off Uncle Sam, and the belief that eliminating American hegemony in Europe relies on cosying up to Russia. I wonder how Mélenchon's puff speeches over Russia in the European Parliament go down with his supporters on here? Tirnam has already showed what his stance on Syria is : Pro-Assad, pro Russia Anti-US. He even said Putin was going to "sort out" Syria on ONPC. The same black-white world his supporters love to be nostalgic of. Where does Melechon support Ahamdenijad? What does pro-assad mean, not going into war against assad? Is that what is meant by defending authoritarianism? What did Melechon mean when he said Russia was going to sort out Syria, that they can interfere in Sryia to fight ISIS (exactly what is wrong with this...) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 08, 2017, 09:01:11 AM Mélenchon might not personally be a Commie, but he is the candidate of that tradition in French politics (a tradition that is far more popular and viable than the wretched remnants of the PCF) much as he was last time.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DavidB. on April 08, 2017, 09:44:18 AM What the thell, Mélenchon's FP vision seems to be the worst. Should have known that, of course, for the reason Al gave. I'd definitely vote for Macron over him.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 08, 2017, 10:44:50 AM Yesterday, Fillon compared himself to Vercingetorix, winner of battle of Gergovia (52 BC) against Julius Caesar "the frontrunner in the polls". The downside of this is that he did not say that ultimately Julius Caesar won the second round in Alesia. Well, Fillon I think made a good analogy for the benefit himself. Alesia was very close and the Romans were about to fall apart about when the Romans played their last card: have the Roman cavalry charge the Gaul position where the Gauls made a breach in the Roman lines . If the Gauls just held on and not break and run they would have won. That is the message I guess Fillon has for his supporters: hold on, do not lose hope and vote Fillon on the first round. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 08, 2017, 11:58:13 AM Do remember in the first debate that Melenchon proposed a "Congress of Europe" to redraw national borders, a la Vienna, 1814. I'm not too sure certain Eastern European countries would jump on that bandwagon...
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: heatcharger on April 08, 2017, 12:02:50 PM It's obviously highly unlikely, but just hypothetically, who would win in a Macron-Melenchon matchup? I would think Le Pen voters would probably vote Macron, but who knows...
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 08, 2017, 12:29:31 PM It's obviously highly unlikely, but just hypothetically, who would win in a Macron-Melenchon matchup? I would think Le Pen voters would probably vote Macron, but who knows... Macron landslide; the political tradition that Mélenchon presently represents is poisonous to a majority of French voters. But a very interesting map, I suspect. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on April 08, 2017, 12:56:09 PM It's obviously highly unlikely, but just hypothetically, who would win in a Macron-Melenchon matchup? I would think Le Pen voters would probably vote Macron, but who knows... Macron landslide; the political tradition that Mélenchon presently represents is poisonous to a majority of French voters. But a very interesting map, I suspect. I'd agree. I'd guess at least a 2:1 margin in favor of Macron. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 08, 2017, 03:40:19 PM I deeply regret starting a political argument.
To be honest, FP is the main thing that scares me about Mélenchon (My favorite candidate was Montebourg, Mélenchon isn't exactly my dream candidate). He said many contradictory things about Russia, but he certainly isn't a Putin supporter. He doesn't seem to know much about Syria, he principally wants to stay out this mess, but he has only praised Putin's action against ISIS (without explicitly denouncing his strikes against the rebels). He also (mildly) denounced Castro's and Chavez's authoritarianism many times in the past, even though he praised them when they died. I can't recall anything about Iran though. He would definitely be crushed by Macron in a second round though. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 09, 2017, 05:35:41 AM Hamon 53%
Arthaud 53% Le Pen 52% Poutou 52% Fillon 48% Mélenchon 47% Cheminade 47% Dupont-Aignan 46% Macron 44% That was... interesting. I do agree with Hamon being my first choice, but I am surprised to see Le Pen as the 2nd (of the major candidates); to see Fillon above Melenchon and to see Macron as the worst choice for me. Then again mostly tied. The diffrence between Macron and Hamon for me is only 9 points Edit: After weighing my results, it moves to: Le Pen 57% Hamon 56% Melenchon 52% Fillon 51% Macron 44% Even more interesting. For some reson Le Pen jumps to number 1. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 09, 2017, 06:04:41 AM Hamon indicates that he would rather endorse Melenchon than Macron if he loses the first round
http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/04/09/benoit-hamon-appellera-a-voter-jean-luc-melenchon-s-il-perd-au-premier-tour_5108409_4854003.html Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 09, 2017, 06:57:52 AM A French Town Known for Picking Presidents Sees Big Upset Ahead
The foie gras town of Donzy is almost always right in picking a winner, and this year it sees Fillon beating Le Pen. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-09/a-french-town-known-for-picking-presidents-sees-big-upset-ahead () Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 09, 2017, 07:03:53 AM A French Town Known for Picking Presidents Sees Big Upset Ahead The foie gras town of Donzy is almost always right in picking a winner, and this year it sees Fillon beating Le Pen. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-09/a-french-town-known-for-picking-presidents-sees-big-upset-ahead () There are 36,000 communes in France, so there are probably others that have been good bellwethers for the last few elections, but have different results for the current election. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 09, 2017, 07:07:16 AM I would have sworn that Chirac beat Jospin in 1995 :P
Also, given the peculiar dynamics of this election, I don't think historical bellweathers are going to be very useful. The Nièvre is a traditionally left wing department, but who knows how its vote is going to split between Macron (a spectacularly bad fit for and ageing and rural area), Hamon and Mélenchon Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 09, 2017, 07:31:33 AM Hamon indicates that he would rather endorse Melenchon than Macron if he loses the first round http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/04/09/benoit-hamon-appellera-a-voter-jean-luc-melenchon-s-il-perd-au-premier-tour_5108409_4854003.html I guess that could mean something if the second round ends up being a run off between Mélenchon and Macron, but I think the odds of that are still about one in a thousand Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: brucejoel99 on April 09, 2017, 07:38:49 AM I would have sworn that Chirac beat Jospin in 1995 :P Also, given the peculiar dynamics of this election, I don't think historical bellweathers are going to be very useful. The Nièvre is a traditionally left wing department, but who knows how its vote is going to split between Macron (a spectacularly bad fit for and ageing and rural area), Hamon and Mélenchon Yeah, he very much did lol... they likely just switched the names up (assuming the point of the article still stands & that Donzy is indeed the bellweather it's claimed to be) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: peterthlee on April 09, 2017, 07:51:01 AM Hamon indicates that he would rather endorse Melenchon than Macron if he loses the first round http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/04/09/benoit-hamon-appellera-a-voter-jean-luc-melenchon-s-il-perd-au-premier-tour_5108409_4854003.html Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: peterthlee on April 09, 2017, 08:14:13 AM Final prediction
First Round Macron 28 (+5) ✓ Le Pen 23 ✓ Melenchon 19 X Fillon 17 X Hamon 11 X Minor candidates 2 X Second Round Safe EM-Solid Macron 68-32 How do you guys think? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on April 09, 2017, 09:22:23 AM Final prediction First Round Macron 28 (+5) ✓ Le Pen 23 ✓ Melenchon 19 X Fillon 17 X Hamon 11 X Minor candidates 2 X Second Round Safe EM-Solid Macron 68-32 How do you guys think? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 09, 2017, 09:43:28 AM A French Town Known for Picking Presidents Sees Big Upset Ahead The foie gras town of Donzy is almost always right in picking a winner, and this year it sees Fillon beating Le Pen. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-09/a-french-town-known-for-picking-presidents-sees-big-upset-ahead () There are 36,000 communes in France, so there are probably others that have been good bellwethers for the last few elections, but have different results for the current election. Yeah, just in Spain alone we have 81 municipalities that qualify (the largest being Ponferrada, a Galician town with 67 000 people). Interestingly there is a "state" that does always predict the election (Aragon, which is often called Spain's Ohio for that reason) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 09, 2017, 09:44:33 AM Melenchon has an online video game now: http://fiscalkombat.fr/ If he gets elected I hope his policies are better than his videogames XD Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Classic Conservative on April 09, 2017, 10:24:41 AM I have a question for our French posters, if Filion doesn't make it into the second round who will practicing Catholics vote for?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: LabourJersey on April 09, 2017, 10:42:52 AM A French Town Known for Picking Presidents Sees Big Upset Ahead The foie gras town of Donzy is almost always right in picking a winner, and this year it sees Fillon beating Le Pen. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-09/a-french-town-known-for-picking-presidents-sees-big-upset-ahead () I really dislike the idea that "bellwether towns" have some genuine predictive power. Its the political equivalent of flipping a coin six times and getting heads for all six. I believe there was a long piece on Politico about some Indiana town that went for each presidential winner since 1952, and it went for Trump by double digits. Sure that might be technically accurate but that is a difference of 13 percentage points compared to the rest of America Politics change, swing voters change, etc. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 09, 2017, 11:12:09 AM Poll Kantar-Sofres for Le Figaro / LCI (http://www.lci.fr/elections/sondage-exclusif-jean-luc-melenchon-devant-francois-fillon-pour-la-premiere-fois-le-pen-et-macron-en-baisse-2044434.html%3Ftype=content)
First poll to show Mélenchon ahead of Fillon Macron: 24% (-2 since March, 17) Le Pen: 24% (-2) Mélenchon: 18% (+6) Fillon: 17% (=) Hamon: 9% (-3) Second round Macron 61% - Le Pen 39% Macron 66% - Fillon 34% Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47% Fillon 55% - Le Pen 45% Mélenchon 57% - Le Pen 43% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 09, 2017, 11:32:14 AM I guess the big question is what is Melenchon's "ceiling" for the first round. To actually get into the second round he would have to overtake LePen or Macron and get well into the 20s...Is that realistic or has he "maxxed out" at this point.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 09, 2017, 11:44:31 AM I think that polls seem to stabilize:
- Harris Interactive (March, 3-5): Macron 25%, Le Pen 24%, Fillon 18%, Mélenchon 17% - Odoxa (March, 5): Macron 23.5%, Le Pen 23%, Fillon 18.5%, Mélenchon 18% - Kantar-Sofres (March, 5-7) : Macron 24%, Le Pen 24%, Mélenchon 18%, Fillon: 17% Just a few variations but basically similar results (or at least inside the margin of error) We will see tomorrow if I'm wrong. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zuza on April 09, 2017, 11:45:01 AM Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47% Surprisingly good result for Mélenchon. It looks like he gets the bulk of Le Pen voters in this scenario. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on April 09, 2017, 12:45:57 PM Poll Kantar-Sofres for Le Figaro / LCI (http://www.lci.fr/elections/sondage-exclusif-jean-luc-melenchon-devant-francois-fillon-pour-la-premiere-fois-le-pen-et-macron-en-baisse-2044434.html%3Ftype=content) First poll to show Mélenchon ahead of Fillon Macron: 24% (-2 since March, 17) Le Pen: 24% (-2) Mélenchon: 18% (+6) Fillon: 17% (=) Hamon: 9% (-3) Second round Macron 61% - Le Pen 39% Macron 66% - Fillon 34% Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47% Fillon 55% - Le Pen 45% Mélenchon 57% - Le Pen 43% I believe there was a poll that had Fillon at 15.5% and Mélenchon at 19% so it's not the first. But it's probably the first serious poll that has Mélenchon ahead because the other one probably was a junk poll. Anyway, I just read that Sarkozy thinks he could be Macron's PM in a cohabitation government if the right wins a majority. He is even more delusional than Fillon lol. http://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/presidentielle-2017-second-tour-resultat-macron-le-pen-sarkozy-7787966549 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: TheSaint250 on April 09, 2017, 01:13:12 PM I guess the big question is what is Melenchon's "ceiling" for the first round. To actually get into the second round he would have to overtake LePen or Macron and get well into the 20s...Is that realistic or has he "maxxed out" at this point. Without Hamon dropping out, his ceiling is probably 19% or 20%. With Hamon dropping out, probably 24%(?) On that note: another question, if Hamon did drop out, how many of his supporters would go to Melenchon? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 09, 2017, 01:31:03 PM Poll Kantar-Sofres for Le Figaro / LCI (http://www.lci.fr/elections/sondage-exclusif-jean-luc-melenchon-devant-francois-fillon-pour-la-premiere-fois-le-pen-et-macron-en-baisse-2044434.html%3Ftype=content) First poll to show Mélenchon ahead of Fillon Macron: 24% (-2 since March, 17) Le Pen: 24% (-2) Mélenchon: 18% (+6) Fillon: 17% (=) Hamon: 9% (-3) Second round Macron 61% - Le Pen 39% Macron 66% - Fillon 34% Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47% Fillon 55% - Le Pen 45% Mélenchon 57% - Le Pen 43% I believe there was a poll that had Fillon at 15.5% and Mélenchon at 19% so it's not the first. But it's probably the first serious poll that has Mélenchon ahead because the other one probably was a junk poll. It wasn't a poll done by a reliable pollster. In the continuing series "The FN has changed but not so much" Le Pen said today that "France wasn't responsible for the Vel d'Hiv roundup (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vel%27_d%27Hiv_Roundup)" in which 13,152 jews were arrested by French police, on the order of French legal government in Vichy, in 1942 before being sent to Auschwitz. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 09, 2017, 01:34:44 PM I guess the big question is what is Melenchon's "ceiling" for the first round. To actually get into the second round he would have to overtake LePen or Macron and get well into the 20s...Is that realistic or has he "maxxed out" at this point. Without Hamon dropping out, his ceiling is probably 19% or 20%. With Hamon dropping out, probably 24%(?) On that note: another question, if Hamon did drop out, how many of his supporters would go to Melenchon? And there is no chance at all of Hamon dropping out. If he did I suspect his support would split between Macron and Melenchon and virtually none of this support would go to LePen or Fillon Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 09, 2017, 02:05:17 PM Melenchon was stupid to be the 1st major candidate to withdraw from the 3rd debate, would have helped him get votes among a wider audience ! I think he realistically has to be within 2-3% of the Top 2 in the polls & then hope for a bigger turnout of his voters & expect Hamon voters to defect. Look there will be Hamon voters who wouldn't want to waste votes of a candidate who won't go into the Final 2 !
Can Melenchon touch or cross 20% in the next 8-9 days drawing from Macron/Le Pen voters as well, like he has been doing so far, with the Hamon+Melenchon vote increasing. I think Le Pen will fall, Poutou did some damage to her among the working class voters she is targeting ! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 09, 2017, 02:10:16 PM I would like to issue a warning about overreacting to post-debate bubbles. Remember Nick Clegg in 2010.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 09, 2017, 02:17:11 PM I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: TheSaint250 on April 09, 2017, 02:31:55 PM I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it. As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 09, 2017, 02:40:42 PM I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it. As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial. It's denial of a particular event that contributed to the Holocaust. We can discuss semantics as much as you want but this is still vile. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: TheSaint250 on April 09, 2017, 02:42:39 PM I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it. As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial. It's denial of a particular event that contributed to the Holocaust. We can discuss semantics as much as you want but this is still vile. Yes, as I said, she's wrong on this. I'm just saying it's not blatant Holocaust denial like what was being implied. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: TheSaint250 on April 09, 2017, 02:50:21 PM I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it. As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial. It's denial of a particular event that contributed to the Holocaust. We can discuss semantics as much as you want but this is still vile. Yes, as I said, she's wrong on this. I'm just saying it's not blatant Holocaust denial like what was being implied. Even then, she's blaming the Nazi-backed government at the time for it. She said that that's not who the French people in general are, only the people in power at the time. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 09, 2017, 02:55:35 PM Ever heard of the concept of German Victimhood?
This is the french equivalent. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 09, 2017, 03:00:11 PM I thought the core of LePen's support came from people why sympathized with the Vichy pro-Nazi government of Petain?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 09, 2017, 03:00:28 PM Ever heard of the concept of German Victimhood? This is the french equivalent. Exactly. A refusal to believe that the French themselves were capable of openly collaborating and coordinating with the Nazi regime and advancing their own goals through them. Please don't try to defend her words. They speak clearly on their own. (Sorry, had to keep fixing my iPhone's autocorrect.) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: TheSaint250 on April 09, 2017, 03:04:24 PM Ever heard of the concept of German Victimhood? This is the french equivalent. Exactly. A refusal to believe that the French themselves were capable of openly collaborating and coordinating with the Nazi regime and advance its own principles through them. Please don't try to defend her words. They speak clearly on their own. But she's not denying that Holocaust happened as u made it seem Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 09, 2017, 03:08:43 PM Ever heard of the concept of German Victimhood? This is the french equivalent. Exactly. A refusal to believe that the French themselves were capable of openly collaborating and coordinating with the Nazi regime and advance its own principles through them. Please don't try to defend her words. They speak clearly on their own. But she's not denying that Holocaust happened as u made it seem Its denying the events surrounding the Holocaust, reducing one of the greatest war crimes in human history to a nationalist caricature of "WE WAZ INNOCENT". Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 09, 2017, 03:09:43 PM Ever heard of the concept of German Victimhood? This is the french equivalent. Exactly. A refusal to believe that the French themselves were capable of openly collaborating and coordinating with the Nazi regime and advance its own principles through them. Please don't try to defend her words. They speak clearly on their own. But she's not denying that Holocaust happened as u made it seem I made it appear no such way. I just said it's Holocaust denial: attempting to minimize or obfuscate the role or responsibility of people or a group in collaborating and carrying out a component of the Holocaust. She's attempting to retell a rather pathetic idea of Germany's "Zero Hour" that everything which happened before 1945 is an aberration and nothing is worth learning or even talking about from it. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 09, 2017, 03:14:23 PM But anyway, we can go on about Panzergirl in another thread if we wish, I just thought I'd share the news.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 09, 2017, 03:45:36 PM But I don't understand why LePen would throw her own supporters under the bus by implying that the French played no role in the Holocaust. The typical FN voter would have supported the Vichy government and would have proudly helped the Nazis round up Jews. Why doesn't LePen take pride in her movement's history as being pro Nazi? If you are in Le Pen's universe you probably think there was nothing wrong with the Holocaust
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 09, 2017, 03:47:06 PM But I don't understand why LePen would throw her own supporters under the bus by implying that the French played no role in the Holocaust. The typical FN voter would have supported the Vichy government and would have proudly helped the Nazis round up Jews. Why doesn't LePen take pride in her movement's history as being pro Nazi? If you are in Le Pen's universe you probably think there was nothing wrong with the Holocaust It's all part of "modernizing" the FN, mon amie. ;) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 09, 2017, 03:52:15 PM But I don't understand why LePen would throw her own supporters under the bus by implying that the French played no role in the Holocaust. The typical FN voter would have supported the Vichy government and would have proudly helped the Nazis round up Jews. Why doesn't LePen take pride in her movement's history as being pro Nazi? If you are in Le Pen's universe you probably think there was nothing wrong with the Holocaust Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on April 09, 2017, 03:54:20 PM Given Panzergirl's electorate, the typical FN voter would have been in the STO. But I digress, this is a dumb point to be discussing.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 09, 2017, 04:04:43 PM I mean, this isn't even close to the worst thing she's said this month, but I did wonder when we'd hear la papa grand peak through again.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 09, 2017, 04:41:27 PM It's not actual denial. It was also the official position of France before Chirac's presidency.
It's a "no true scotsman" fallacy: "It was not France, because the true France was in London!" Which is bullsh**t, and implies that what makes France what it is is not its people, but its leaders. It's ideological, but it's also supposed to please the "France can do no wrong and anything else is unnecessary repentance" crowd. This is really an unsurprising stance. I bet Fillon feel roughly the same toward the Vel d'Hiv. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 09, 2017, 04:47:28 PM ah, yeah, the Austrian position, popular for decades.
victims - victims victims all around. i wonder if the nazis would have been able to kill 1/10 of their real kill-counter without all those......victims. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 09, 2017, 05:47:15 PM It's the French version of the Austrian myth that Hitler was German and Beethoven was Austrian
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Pandaguineapig on April 09, 2017, 06:14:05 PM It seems she really meant it in the sense that the REAL French government was in exile at the time, but it is stupid for a candidate who is accused of having ties or sympathies to neo-Nazis to dabble in holocaust denial like this. Granted she was never going to win a second round but this could put her first round chances in doubt as well
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 09, 2017, 06:47:07 PM It seems she really meant it in the sense that the REAL French government was in exile at the time, If her revisionism is anything like her father's then I doubt she believes De Gaulle constituted the legitimate French government during France's period under occupation. Quote but it is stupid for a candidate who is accused of having ties or sympathies to neo-Nazis to dabble in holocaust denial like this. Granted she was never going to win a second round but this could put her first round chances in doubt as well Its entirely deliberate. Right-wing populist parties can use this kind of rhetoric to communicate to their core militants so as to keep them from on side, but in doing so they intend attract the required headlines only for them to "moderate" their tone, so that more moderate nationalist voters at least sympathise with the end product, and buy into the idea of a left-wing bias. Then you have her apologists (all the way from Florida these days!) invade the forums, etc trying to do you on factoids, when they have never even watched the FN documentaries from the 70s and 80s. Le Pen previously did this on education for migrants. She first claimed she would ban education for all new migrants. Gets the headlines desired, gets invited on a TV panel, and says she meant only for illegal migrants. Its a clever tactic, as even if you disagree with the latter policy you still buy into the victim complex. When Le Pen does it its considered abhorrent because of her family name and her party's history, but the reality is its becoming widespread and not just on the extreme Right. Anything for more air time. The real news though here is that Marine Le Pen has started to sound like her father again. It is indeed surprising that she is bringing up the WW2 revisionism. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 09, 2017, 07:04:23 PM The real news though here is that Marine Le Pen has started to sound like her father again. It is indeed surprising that she is bringing up the WW2 revisionism. Hmm, I wonder if maybe Marine is a bit worried about the inexorable rise of her niece, especially if Philippot is going the other way. Have you got any links to the FN docs from the 70s/80s by the way? I would be interested in watching some of them Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: The Other Castro on April 09, 2017, 08:41:19 PM What are the odds of each of these match-ups happening?
Macron/Le Pen Macron/Fillon Macron/Mélenchon Fillon/Le Pen Mélenchon/Fillon Mélenchon/Le Pen I'm guessing something like: Macron/Le Pen - 77% Mélenchon/Le Pen - 9% Fillon/Le Pen - 8% Macron/Fillon - 3% Macron/Mélenchon - 2% Mélenchon/Fillon - 1% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: brucejoel99 on April 09, 2017, 09:18:14 PM What are the odds of each of these match-ups happening? Macron/Le Pen Macron/Fillon Macron/Mélenchon Fillon/Le Pen Mélenchon/Fillon Mélenchon/Le Pen I'm guessing something like: Macron/Le Pen - 77% Mélenchon/Le Pen - 9% Fillon/Le Pen - 8% Macron/Fillon - 3% Macron/Mélenchon - 2% Mélenchon/Fillon - 1% Macron/Le Pen - 85% Macron/Fillon - 5% Macron/Mélenchon - NOPE Fillon/Le Pen - 10% Mélenchon/Fillon - NOPE Mélenchon/Le Pen - NOPE Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on April 09, 2017, 11:42:10 PM I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it. As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: justfollowingtheelections on April 09, 2017, 11:48:06 PM I like Hamon but I really hope he drops out of the race and endorses Melenchon. I would much rather have Melenchon as president than Macron or Le Pen.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Klartext89 on April 10, 2017, 01:07:55 AM The feeling which told me that Trump would gonna win, is now telling me that Melanchon and Le Pen will face up in the runoff.
The Establishment will - like in Austria - need massive media Support, smear campaign, lies and of course voter fraud to get him over the finish line and prevent Le Pen then. It will get very very heated. Like Steve Bannon said at CPAC, they won't give you your Country back without a fight. Running another old Communist is the newest trick. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 10, 2017, 01:20:09 AM I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it. As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial. She didn't deny this. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 10, 2017, 04:21:56 AM I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it. As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial. She didn't deny this. She said France as a national conscious is not responsible for La Raffle. France's elected chamber gave Pétain full executive powers. There were also a large number French people who collaborated. As a whole, if you want to be a jingoist about your own national history, You can't just pick and choose which events suit your historical narrative as to what constitutes action by your national consciousness and what constitutes actions by the individuals responsible. Its like the Belgians here who say Congo was the King's property ergo it wasnt our fault, why should we care, etc. Complete hypocrisy. if you are so proud of your flag, you accept the blood spilt on behalf of it too. @pariochial, i am on my phone so its hard to google but a good show i reccomend is atelier du pouvoir on France Culture. There is an episode on it called "Dans la tête de Jean-Marie Le Pen" where he and an FN historian discuss the formation of the party, as well as his interpretation of WW2 history. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 10, 2017, 05:47:46 AM Opinionway
Le Pen 24% (-1%) Macron 23% (-1%) Fillon 19% (-1%) Melenchon 18 (+2%) Hamon 9% (-1%) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 10, 2017, 06:50:02 AM My feeling of a stabilization of the race (for now) seems to be confirm by this poll done during the weekend, but it's OpinionWay, which was always a little bit off compared with other polls.
Médipart: Fillon lied again, his wife began to work with him in the National Assembly in 1982, not in 1986 as he claimed (he first said he hired her in 1998). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: RogueBeaver on April 10, 2017, 08:44:53 AM Sarko (http://www.politico.eu/article/going-going-not-gone-nicolas-sarkozy-dreams-of-comeback-france-elections/)plotting another comeback and believes Fillon is screwed. If Fillon loses, Sarko might lead the legislative campaign that if victorious could see a close associate (or maybe Sarko himself) become PM. Ultimate goal: another presidential run in 2022?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on April 10, 2017, 10:06:07 AM Sarkozy really is delusional. I don't think he would have been doing any better than Fillon if he were the nominee. No way he is going to defeat Macron in his honeymoon.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 10, 2017, 12:05:27 PM Sarko (http://www.politico.eu/article/going-going-not-gone-nicolas-sarkozy-dreams-of-comeback-france-elections/)plotting another comeback and believes Fillon is screwed. If Fillon loses, Sarko might lead the legislative campaign that if victorious could see a close associate (or maybe Sarko himself) become PM. Ultimate goal: another presidential run in 2022? Way to make sure FBM is a two-term President! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Blair on April 10, 2017, 12:24:14 PM The UK press are starting to talk about Melenchon; and it's leading to similar articles that I saw in 2012 where people said that Hollande winning was a good sign for Miliband (but obvs for Corbyn now)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 10, 2017, 12:27:29 PM The UK press are starting to talk about Melenchon; and it's leading to similar articles that I saw in 2012 where people said that Hollande winning was a good sign for Miliband (but obvs for Corbyn now) That's terrible news for Ed Miliband. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Donerail on April 10, 2017, 02:38:12 PM Why hasn't Poutou dropped and endorsed Mélenchon? I understand where it wouldn't matter if he didn't look likely to win, but now that he's breaking 20 that extra 2% could go a long way.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on April 10, 2017, 02:53:35 PM The easiest way to understand the vagaries of French politics is to keep in mind that (a) with very few exceptions, every single French politician of national stature is an arrogant egomaniac who believes that he/she is a truly incredible genius and that everybody else is a nincompoop, and (b) the presidential election is the most important election in France by miles (especially post-2000) and there is a huge incentive for every party to 'get counted'. Once you understand these two facts, you will understand why French politics works the way it does.
Alternatively, you can do like I do and treat French politics the same way I treat Colombian or Paraguayan politics. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 10, 2017, 03:06:36 PM Why hasn't Poutou dropped and endorsed Mélenchon? I understand where it wouldn't matter if he didn't look likely to win, but now that he's breaking 20 that extra 2% could go a long way. Sectarianism. Also, Poutou indicated that his official stance was not to endorse Hollande back in 2012*, and specifically the NPA (mainly composed of the old LCR) want nothing to do with concepts like a Mitterandiste united Left. *He still ended calling to vote against Sarkozy. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 10, 2017, 03:14:33 PM Why hasn't Poutou dropped and endorsed Mélenchon? I understand where it wouldn't matter if he didn't look likely to win, but now that he's breaking 20 that extra 2% could go a long way. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 10, 2017, 05:20:49 PM Remember that Yannick Jadot dropped out in favour of Hamon, fat load of good that did. No-one is going to drop at this point, period.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MaxQue on April 10, 2017, 05:51:10 PM Remember that Yannick Jadot dropped out in favour of Hamon, fat load of good that did. No-one is going to drop at this point, period. Well, EELV got a deal for Législatives and a refund by the PS of some of their campaign expenses. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 10, 2017, 06:09:08 PM Nobody drops after the official slate of candidates has been established. Period. So stop speculating about what if X or Y dropped or why doesn't Z or K drop. It's not a thing we do. Learn the rules if you want to participate in this carnival.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Donerail on April 10, 2017, 10:53:32 PM Nobody drops after the official slate of candidates has been established. Period. So stop speculating about what if X or Y dropped or why doesn't Z or K drop. It's not a thing we do. Learn the rules if you want to participate in this carnival. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 11, 2017, 02:43:33 AM Nobody drops after the official slate of candidates has been established. Period. So stop speculating about what if X or Y dropped or why doesn't Z or K drop. It's not a thing we do. Learn the rules if you want to participate in this carnival. I think Hash's answer applies more to Sarkozy than to a guy who is a testimonial candidate. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 11, 2017, 06:43:19 AM The UK press are starting to talk about Melenchon; and it's leading to similar articles that I saw in 2012 where people said that Hollande winning was a good sign for Miliband (but obvs for Corbyn now) Pretty sure nothing will come out of it. Hell, does Corbyn even have a chance of forcing a hung parliament? (let alone winning or forming a majority government) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Blair on April 11, 2017, 09:44:56 AM The UK press are starting to talk about Melenchon; and it's leading to similar articles that I saw in 2012 where people said that Hollande winning was a good sign for Miliband (but obvs for Corbyn now) Pretty sure nothing will come out of it. Hell, does Corbyn even have a chance of forcing a hung parliament? (let alone winning or forming a majority government) At this stage we'd be happy to keep 200 seats, but yeah my point was that it's just leading the same usual crap comparison of completely different political situations. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 11, 2017, 09:45:36 AM All this tells us is that British political journalists are stupid and self-obsessed (but we knew that anyway)...
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 11, 2017, 10:15:38 AM Seems to stabilize now
Elabe Le Pen 23% (-0.5%) Macron 23% (-0.5%) Fillon 19% Melenchon 17% Hamon 10% (+1%) Certain of vote Melenchon 65% (+4%) Hamon 54% (-7%) Macron 73% (+6%) Fillon 74% (-4%) Le Pen 83% (+2%) Run off scenarios () Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 11, 2017, 11:00:34 AM Tracking polls
OpinionWay Le Pen: 24% (=) Macron: 23% (=) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 18% (=) Hamon: 8% (-1) Second round Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37% Ifop Le Pen: 24% (=) Macron: 23% (=) Fillon: 19% (+0.5) Mélenchon: 18.5% (+0.5) Hamon: 8.5% (-0.5) Second round Macron 58.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 41.5% Yes, it seems to stabilize. Ifop maybe a little off for the second round. Update with a new poll Ipsos, for France Télévisions Macron: 24% (=, since March 27) Le Pen: 24% (-1) Mélenchon: 18.5% (+4.5) Fillon: 18% (=) Hamon: 8% (-4) Second round Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 11, 2017, 12:03:36 PM Tracking polls OpinionWay Le Pen: 24% (=) Macron: 23% (=) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 18% (=) Hamon: 8% (-1) Second round Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37% Ifop Le Pen: 24% (=) Macron: 23% (=) Fillon: 19% (+0.5) Mélenchon: 18.5% (+0.5) Hamon: 8.5% (-0.5) Second round Macron 58.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 41.5% Yes, it seems to stabilize. Ifop maybe a little off for the second round. Update with a new poll Ipsos, for France Télévisions Macron: 24% (=, since March 27) Le Pen: 24% (-1) Mélenchon: 18.5% (+4.5) Fillon: 18% (=) Hamon: 8% (-4) Second round Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 11, 2017, 12:21:36 PM Tracking polls OpinionWay Le Pen: 24% (=) Macron: 23% (=) Fillon: 19% (=) Mélenchon: 18% (=) Hamon: 8% (-1) Second round Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37% Ifop Le Pen: 24% (=) Macron: 23% (=) Fillon: 19% (+0.5) Mélenchon: 18.5% (+0.5) Hamon: 8.5% (-0.5) Second round Macron 58.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 41.5% Yes, it seems to stabilize. Ifop maybe a little off for the second round. Update with a new poll Ipsos, for France Télévisions Macron: 24% (=, since March 27) Le Pen: 24% (-1) Mélenchon: 18.5% (+4.5) Fillon: 18% (=) Hamon: 8% (-4) Second round Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38% Some interesting stats from Ipsos about second choices, suprised few of Fillon and Le Pen electorate see each other as ideal second choice Melenchon: Hamon 35% Macron 21% Poutou 10% Le Pen 6% Hamon: Melenchon 53% Macron 27% Macron: Melenchon 27% Hamon 21% Fillon 19% Le Pen 9% Fillon: Macron 56% Melenchon 14% Le Pen 9% Le Pen: Melenchon 29% Dupont-Aignan 18% Macron 14% Fillon 8% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 11, 2017, 01:43:29 PM I'd like to meet some of the 14% of Fillon voters who have Melenchon as their second choice
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on April 11, 2017, 01:57:52 PM I'd like to meet some of the 14% of Fillon voters who have Melenchon as their second choice Really bizarre but seems like probably small sample sizes. People who are drawn to egotistical maniacs as a general matter? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Upsilon on April 11, 2017, 03:32:27 PM I'd like to meet some of the 14% of Fillon voters who have Melenchon as their second choice Here (http://rmc.bfmtv.com/emission/presidentielle-apres-avoir-toujours-vote-a-droite-jean-luc-melenchon-est-devenu-mon-seul-espoir-1139608.html) is a testimony of a (RPR-, UMP-) LR-voter which will vote for Melanchon this time. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 11, 2017, 03:54:28 PM I'd like to meet some of the 14% of Fillon voters who have Melenchon as their second choice Really bizarre but seems like probably small sample sizes. People who are drawn to egotistical maniacs as a general matter? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 11, 2017, 04:27:56 PM Something else from today's polls. 67% of people are angry, disappointed or disgusted by the campaign so far. 64% feel like they haven't learned enough about the candidates or their positions.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Mike88 on April 11, 2017, 05:08:51 PM If anyone is interested, Macron gave an interview to portuguese RTP1. Here it is:
Link. (https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/mundo/macron-poe-de-lado-a-mutualizacao-de-dividas-europeias-do-passado_n994746) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 12, 2017, 02:11:59 PM Ifop -paris match poll
Marine 23,5 (-0,5) Macron 22,5 (-0,5) Fillon 19 (=) Melanchon 18,5 (=) Hamon 8,5 (=) NPA 3,5 (=) Poutou 2 (+0,5) Lasalle 1,5 (+0,5) Arthaud 0,5 (=) Asselinneau 0,5 (=) Turnout: 68 % (+6 compared to 03/28) Opinionway Marine 24 (=) Macron 23 (=) Fillon 20 (+1) Melanchon 18 (=) Hamon 7 (-1) NDA 3 (=) Poutou 2 (=) Asselineau 1 (=) Lasalle 2 (=) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 12, 2017, 02:21:25 PM Squeaky bum time for FBM
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 12, 2017, 07:09:25 PM For Le Pen as well, actually. On the polling figures we've seen lately it would take only a minor polling error for either to miss the cut.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Axel Foley on April 12, 2017, 08:10:55 PM With this recent poll numbers, I have a slight hope for some anti-establishment voters defecting from Le Pen enough to put Melenchon into the runoff...
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 12, 2017, 10:56:25 PM With this recent poll numbers, I have a slight hope for some anti-establishment voters defecting from Le Pen enough to put Melenchon into the runoff... Mélenchon vs FBM would make for a fascinating map, at least. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SPQR on April 13, 2017, 02:54:15 AM The left always comes out on the losing side from such scenarios.
So, if anything, I am getting more afraid by the day of a Le Pen- Fillon runoff. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 13, 2017, 03:00:47 AM With this recent poll numbers, I have a slight hope for some anti-establishment voters defecting from Le Pen enough to put Melenchon into the runoff... Mélenchon vs FBM would make for a fascinating map, at least. Anyway, seeing the PS at 7% because of "vote utile" is the epitome of schadenfreude. :D Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 13, 2017, 03:12:29 AM Anyway, seeing the PS at 7% because of "vote utile" is the epitome of schadenfreude. :D I guess it can look that way if you care about muh party labels more than about having a President who's actually a good person and has the right policies. ::) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 13, 2017, 03:16:42 AM With this recent poll numbers, I have a slight hope for some anti-establishment voters defecting from Le Pen enough to put Melenchon into the runoff... Mélenchon vs FBM would make for a fascinating map, at least. You would think so, but looking at the results for the primaire de la gauche, using Valls a proxy for Macron and Hamon for Mélenchon, the maps don't tie together that closely; although FBM would probably do well in the South-West, Inner West and Limousin. The idea of all those old racists on the Côte d'Azur having to choose between the two though, amazing... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 13, 2017, 04:15:55 AM I don't think Hamon-Valls in a primary can predict what Mélenchon-Macron would look like in the presidential runoff.
And if you're a racist and you have to choose between Mélenchon and Macron, sadly, I think the choice is pretty obvious. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 13, 2017, 05:09:11 AM I don't necessarily agree, I can't really see the rich retirees and "manif pour tous" types coming round to Mélenchon; I think they'll vote for their economic interests in that situation. So the Med coast at least I think would vote more for Macron that the EU referendum results would suggest.
I agree that the primary map isn't much of a predictor, but I do wonder about the kind of scores Mélenchon would post in the ancestrally left wing - but not communist parts of the country. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 13, 2017, 05:20:33 AM Opinionway
Marine 24 (=) Macron 23 (=) Fillon 20 (=) Melanchon 17 (-1) Hamon 8 (+1) NDA 3 (=) Poutou 2 (=) Lasalle 2 (=) Asselineau 1 (=) I think that Marine and Macron have lost a little due to small candidates, who take 5 % of votes. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 13, 2017, 10:47:52 AM Elabe
Macron 23.5% (+0.5%) Le Pen 22.5 (-0.5%) Fillon 20% (+1%) Melenchon 18.5% (+1.5%) Hamon 9% (-1%) Its close, Le Pen not reaching the 2nd would be hilarious, doing a Wilders :P Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 13, 2017, 10:53:58 AM Elabe Macron 23.5% (+0.5%) Le Pen 22.5 (-0.5%) Fillon 20% (+1%) Melenchon 18.5% (+1.5%) Hamon 9% (-1%) Its close, Le Pen not reaching the 2nd would be hilarious, doing a Wilders :P Fillon seems to be gaining recently ... He was at 17% a few weeks ago and has now creeped back up to around 20%. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 13, 2017, 11:02:38 AM i guess he always was at 20 but his voters were ashamed.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 13, 2017, 11:04:24 AM He is just at 20% in two polls, he gained 1 point in some polls, he gained nothing in other polls. Not a clear momentum for him
For Elabe poll: -Le Pen has lost 5.5 points since February Second round Macron wins against Le Pen (65-35), Fillon (65-35), Mélenchon (54-46) Le Pen loses against Fillon (58-42), Mélenchon (63-37) Mélenchon wins against Fillon (59-41) Ifop Le Pen: 23.5% (=) Macron: 22.5% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (+0.5) Fillon: 19% (=) Hamon: 8.5% (=) Second round Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 13, 2017, 11:17:13 AM Nate Silver worries about Herding in French polls: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/852552041738141696
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 13, 2017, 11:20:07 AM Nate Silver worries about Herding in French polls: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/852552041738141696 Well, he could be right. What % of voters still remain undecided ? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 13, 2017, 11:23:36 AM Nate Silver worries about Herding in French polls: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/852552041738141696 On the other hand, the polls in 2012 were quite constant as well (although a bit more fluctuation) and they end up well. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 13, 2017, 11:23:57 AM Yeah but French polls have always been consistent with one another. In 2012, in 2007, for the national trends in the local elections, ... with no major surprises in those elections.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 13, 2017, 11:30:38 AM Do you guys think turnout will be less than 70% as predicted in the polls now? whereas in other years it was it was much higher, 80% or more like 2007 and 2012. And the high turnout in the Netherlands suprised everyone. Who would benefit if turnout turns out to be a higher, lets say 75-80%? My sense says Macron and Melenchon, but I dont know
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 13, 2017, 11:33:59 AM I can't think of any major polling error in France that would lead us to doubt the polling trend here, and to be clear, we're looking at a situation where four candidates are separated by four points, so any fluctuation should not be a surprise or shock.
Personally, I'd be very surprised if turnout went below 65% but I could see it in the low 70s definitely. Now who would be assisted by a higher poll, I don't really know. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on April 13, 2017, 11:45:59 AM The polls were way off in 2002 (both overstating Jospin and understating J-M Le Pen), so it is certainly possible that they will be off again. I believe in 2007 the polls substantially overstated J-M Le Pen also (perhaps as a overreaction to 2002), so it is not guaranteed that an error in FN's polling will necessarily be to M Le Pen's benefit. Melenchon's support was also somewhat overstated in polling in 2012 (he got 11% but was polling mostly in the 13-15% range).
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 13, 2017, 11:58:41 AM I just thought of the 2002 example when I finished posting. :P ;)
That is true is a sense but the last polls before the first round had Jospin and Le Pen off by two points in either direction, which, as I said could easily happen hear. The other instances of Melenchon underperforming and Le Pen overperforming in 2012 are with the relatively same standard deviation. My point being, if they top four (but in reality I'd say the top three) finish in a different order that shouldn't be surprising or unprecedented with small differences between tightly-bound contests. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 13, 2017, 12:03:28 PM Poll Harris Interactive
Macron: 24% Le Pen: 22% Fillon: 20% Mélenchon: 19% Hamon: 8% Second round: Macron 67% - Le Pen 33% Mélenchon 64% - Le Pen 36% Fillon 58% - Le Pen 42% Another quite bad poll for Le Pen. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 13, 2017, 12:22:03 PM Iirc, before the left primary, melenchon was in the mid to high teens and Hamon was in single figures. So its prettt funny thats where we're now back to.
Fillon is probably getting a bit of swing back, as natural LR voters end up moving back to him from Le Pen or Macron. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on April 13, 2017, 02:11:40 PM Poll Harris Interactive Macron: 24% Le Pen: 22% Fillon: 20% Mélenchon: 19% Hamon: 8% Second round: Macron 67% - Le Pen 33% Mélenchon 64% - Le Pen 36% Fillon 58% - Le Pen 42% Another quite bad poll for Le Pen. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Maxwell on April 13, 2017, 02:21:10 PM Poll Harris Interactive Macron: 24% Le Pen: 22% Fillon: 20% Mélenchon: 19% Hamon: 8% Second round: Macron 67% - Le Pen 33% Mélenchon 64% - Le Pen 36% Fillon 58% - Le Pen 42% Another quite bad poll for Le Pen. It seems like, since the election of THE DONALD, far right parties are losing momentum. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Mike88 on April 13, 2017, 02:33:42 PM Which candidates do you guys think could be more hit if turnout is extremely low as polls are saying? I say it could be Macron and Mélenchon because of their not very strong voter base while Fillon and Le Pen could be the main beneficiaries.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on April 13, 2017, 02:42:00 PM Which candidates do you guys think could be more hit if turnout is extremely low as polls are saying? I say it could be Macron and Mélenchon because of their not very strong voter base while Fillon and Le Pen could be the main beneficiaries. Speaking without anything close to the expertise of some other posters here... I think Le Pen is hurt most by lower turnout. Her voters are most enthusiastic about her but are also generally disaffected types who aren't necessarily very political. I think they are the most likely not to vote. Melenchon is also likely hurt because his vote skews quite strongly towards the young and relies (to a lesser extent) on the same types of disaffected voters as Le Pen. (Those 3% or so of voters who have of late switched from Le Pen to Melenchon are probably the least likely group to vote.) Macron may be hurt a little bit because he also does well with young voters, but on the other hand he does very well with upscale highly educated voters (both bobo-types and more conservative/moderate but reformist wealthy voters who are turned off by Fillon's sleaze), who probably have the highest voting propensity of all demographics, so Macron may do worst in a middling turnout environment rather than low turnout. Fillon is the candidate most obviously helped by low turnout and hurt by high turnout because his voters skew very old and quite well off, making them the most likely to vote. Hamon is probably helped by low turnout at this point, as the ~5% of voters who will always vote PS are the types who will turn out to vote for him no matter what, though he is obviously dead in the water. Most of the crank candidates are probably helped by low turnout as they have their (small) loyal fanbases. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: The Other Castro on April 13, 2017, 02:54:54 PM Imagine if Le Pen underperforms a little, Fillon rises a bit, and Mélenchon takes a little more from Macron and Hamon and we get something like this:
Macron: 22% Le Pen: 22% Fillon: 22% Mélenchon: 22% Hamon: 6% Others: 6% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 13, 2017, 03:19:23 PM French media were never been in a "too close to call" situation, that would be funny to see.
Plus this year the first polls will close at 7pm, which means that pollsters will only have one hour to collect some results and calculate their projections, I believe that they can do a projection under 45-50 minutes after the polls close but maybe it won't be as precise as before, when they had an extra hour to do it. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 2952-0-0 on April 13, 2017, 03:37:45 PM Wouldn't we know beforehand, as exit polls would be leaked to Swiss and Belgian media outlets to circumvent France's ban on publishing exit polls?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 13, 2017, 04:05:33 PM There is no exit poll in France.
The only thing we have is a projection based on the first votes counted in some selected polling stations by pollster. As I said, it takes around 45 minutes to do this projection, so when the polls closed at 6pm, Belgian and Swiss media could give the information around 7pm, when French media have to wait 8pm. To stop that, this year the first polls will close at 7pm, so the pollsters will finish their first projection just minutes before 8pm. It's unlikely that the numbers would be leaked by Swiss or Belgian medias. Any information that will leak before 8pm on a national projection will be probably fake. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 13, 2017, 05:03:00 PM I'm really afraid a lot of disaffected former Fillon voters from when he was at 27% will change their mind at the last minute in the voting booth, like many indecisive Republicans finally broke out in favor of Trump at the very last moment. They could think "better a crook than Macron".
And that would be terrifying. François Fillon is the worst candidate ever seeking the office of President, in my opinion. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on April 13, 2017, 05:46:36 PM There is no exit poll in France. The only thing we have is a projection based on the first votes counted in some selected polling stations by pollster. As I said, it takes around 45 minutes to do this projection, so when the polls closed at 6pm, Belgian and Swiss media could give the information around 7pm, when French media have to wait 8pm. To stop that, this year the first polls will close at 7pm, so the pollsters will finish their first projection just minutes before 8pm. It's unlikely that the numbers would be leaked by Swiss or Belgian medias. Any information that will leak before 8pm on a national projection will be probably fake. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 13, 2017, 05:57:55 PM I'm really afraid a lot of disaffected former Fillon voters from when he was at 27% will change their mind at the last minute in the voting booth, like many indecisive Republicans finally broke out in favor of Trump at the very last moment. They could think "better a crook than Macron". Anything is possible but I don't see any comparison whatsoever between the attitude of a typical Les Republicains voter in France towards Macron and the attitude of a typical GOP voter in the US towards Hilary Clinton. Macron has nowhere near the negatives that Hillary had and on top of that by virtue of being male, he doesn't elicit misogyny. The real knuckle dragging white supremacists in France are not the Fillon voters, they are the LePen voters. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on April 13, 2017, 06:01:21 PM I'm really afraid a lot of disaffected former Fillon voters from when he was at 27% will change their mind at the last minute in the voting booth, like many indecisive Republicans finally broke out in favor of Trump at the very last moment. They could think "better a crook than Macron". Anything is possible but I don't see any comparison whatsoever between the attitude of a typical Les Republicains voter in France towards Macron and the attitude of a typical GOP voter in the US towards Hilary Clinton. Macron has nowhere near the negatives that Hillary had and on top of that by virtue of being male, he doesn't elicit misogyny. The real knuckle dragging white supremacists in France are not the Fillon voters, they are the LePen voters. Mostly agree, but there are plenty of knuckle-dragger LR voters who think FN is too lower class to vote for them. Not that such people would ever consider Macron. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: rob in cal on April 13, 2017, 06:23:38 PM If France had the Irish transferable vote method for the Presidential election I think it would make things a lot smoother and less random, in terms of who makes the runoff.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on April 13, 2017, 06:26:54 PM Would be an interesting twist on IRV, STV and run-off systems to have STV determine the top two, then have the top two from STV run in an ordinary run-off instead of going full IRV.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Famous Mortimer on April 13, 2017, 09:51:48 PM Remind me again what FBM is supposed to stand for?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 13, 2017, 09:56:58 PM Remind me again what FBM is supposed to stand for? Well the explanations vary, from Flawless Beautiful Macron to Fan Boy Macron, but my personal favorite (of my own twisted invention) remains Flanby's Baby. ;) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 13, 2017, 09:59:57 PM Remind me again what FBM is supposed to stand for? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 13, 2017, 10:02:30 PM Remind me again what FBM is supposed to stand for? () Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 13, 2017, 10:10:51 PM God this guy looks insufferable. It's going to be a pain having him in the headlines for 5 years.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on April 14, 2017, 04:19:20 AM Would be an interesting twist on IRV, STV and run-off systems to have STV determine the top two, then have the top two from STV run in an ordinary run-off instead of going full IRV. but why though Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2017, 05:03:48 AM Melenchon hits 20% for the first time in the Ipsos/Le Monde poll:
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/enquete_presidentielle_ipsos_le_monde.pdf All-time-low for Hamon too. Le Pen and Macron also seem to be dropping slightly. Fillon stable. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: peterthlee on April 14, 2017, 05:43:28 AM In the case of IRV, Macron will have the election in his bag, I guess.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Beezer on April 14, 2017, 05:51:22 AM Has Melenchon been asked to chime in on what's going on in Venezuela?
http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/melenchon/presidentielle-quatre-questions-sur-l-alliance-bolivarienne-que-jean-luc-melenchon-veut-rejoindre_2144046.html Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on April 14, 2017, 06:48:45 AM Would be an interesting twist on IRV, STV and run-off systems to have STV determine the top two, then have the top two from STV run in an ordinary run-off instead of going full IRV. but why though French people complain a lot when you point out IRV would be way better than their system ("but people vote differently in the second round!"). This would solve the problem, and also might reduce the impact of voter confusion in IRV systems with long ballot papers. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hnv1 on April 14, 2017, 06:57:18 AM A melenchon v panzergirl run off would be pretty much the end of the fifth republic as I see it.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Intell on April 14, 2017, 07:13:04 AM Antono: Would you consider voting for Melenchon, if he continues to poll around 3rd, to maybe have a leftist in the seccobd round.
I think any leftist should vote, for the left-wing candidate most likely to make the runoff, before that would mean supporting Harmon, now Melenchon. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 14, 2017, 08:30:45 AM Antono: Would you consider voting for Melenchon, if he continues to poll around 3rd, to maybe have a leftist in the seccobd round. I think any leftist should vote, for the left-wing candidate most likely to make the runoff, before that would mean supporting Harmon, now Melenchon. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 14, 2017, 08:43:07 AM Antono: Would you consider voting for Melenchon, if he continues to poll around 3rd, to maybe have a leftist in the seccobd round. I think any leftist should vote, for the left-wing candidate most likely to make the runoff, before that would mean supporting Harmon, now Melenchon. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Pandaguineapig on April 14, 2017, 09:01:02 AM A melenchon v panzergirl run off would be pretty much the end of the fifth republic as I see it. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on April 14, 2017, 09:04:20 AM New Opinionway tracking poll has Le Pen at 23% (-1%), Macron at 22% (-1%), Fillon at 20% (no change) and Mélenchon at 17% (no change). Too lazy to type the rest. But I'm going to lol so hard if Fillon somehow manages to win the presidency. Macron would become an even bigger laughing stock than the original Flawless Beautiful Politician if he doesn't make the second round.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 14, 2017, 09:21:18 AM if 4 politicans are at nearly the same level and the polls are constantly under-representing melenchon's numbers/fillon's numbers, macron supports could have gotten a wrong picture.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Pandaguineapig on April 14, 2017, 09:26:18 AM I would Imagine a Le Pen/Fillon Runoff would probably have record-setting low turnout?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 14, 2017, 09:39:47 AM i would have grudgingly voted for fillon before, at this point he is kind of the archetype of all corruption-infected politics.....hard decision between fillon or non-voting.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 14, 2017, 10:10:32 AM Yeah but French polls have always been consistent with one another. In 2012, in 2007, for the national trends in the local elections, ... with no major surprises in those elections. Sure, but I guess those elections were a lot more "traditional" and easier to poll. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 14, 2017, 10:13:20 AM French media were never been in a "too close to call" situation, that would be funny to see. Plus this year the first polls will close at 7pm, which means that pollsters will only have one hour to collect some results and calculate their projections, I believe that they can do a projection under 45-50 minutes after the polls close but maybe it won't be as precise as before, when they had an extra hour to do it. What about the French overseas territories? (think French Guyana) Do those not vote? Do they vote earlier? Or do French people have to wait 1 day after polls close to know the result? (for reference polls close at 8 here in Spain but the first results come out at 9 when the polls close in the Canary Islands, but 1 h difference isn't as much as France) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2017, 10:14:02 AM I have a feeling the polls will be off significantly in the first round, but don't know yet in which direction.
Just like the polls in Turkey, which are understating the "Yes" vote: Polls show a tie, I expect Yes to win with 58.6% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 14, 2017, 10:14:19 AM Wouldn't we know beforehand, as exit polls would be leaked to Swiss and Belgian media outlets to circumvent France's ban on publishing exit polls? Ah, the "Andorran fruit market totally not related with the election" poll XD Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 14, 2017, 10:17:26 AM A melenchon v panzergirl run off would be pretty much the end of the fifth republic as I see it. Because Melenchon would usher in the 6th republic :P Now seriously though, that wouldn't kill France as we know it (although it'd be quite reformed, though I guess it also depends on the parliamentary election later this year?), but it'd definitely kill the EU. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 14, 2017, 12:06:03 PM French media were never been in a "too close to call" situation, that would be funny to see. Plus this year the first polls will close at 7pm, which means that pollsters will only have one hour to collect some results and calculate their projections, I believe that they can do a projection under 45-50 minutes after the polls close but maybe it won't be as precise as before, when they had an extra hour to do it. What about the French overseas territories? (think French Guyana) Do those not vote? Do they vote earlier? Or do French people have to wait 1 day after polls close to know the result? (for reference polls close at 8 here in Spain but the first results come out at 9 when the polls close in the Canary Islands, but 1 h difference isn't as much as France) In America (French territories and French living abroad) they vote on Saturday. No results or projection can be released until the last poll close in Metropolitan France. Ifop tracking Le Pen: 23% (-0.5) Macron: 22.5% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (=) Fillon: 19% (=) Odoxa, with some good news for Macron Macron: 24.5% (+1) Le Pen: 23% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (+1) Fillon: 18.5% (=) BVA Macron: 23% (=) Le Pen: 22% (-1) Mélenchon: 20% (+1) Fillon: 20% (+1) Ifop has still Macron under 60% in the second round against Le Pen (59%), Odoxa has him at 61%, BVA at 64% Fillon's numbers against Le Pen: 52.5% for Odoxa, 58% for BVA Macron's numbers against Mélenchon: 60% for Odoxa, 58% for BVA Mélenchon's numbers against Le Pen: 58% for Odoxa, 60% for BVA Macron's numbers against Fillon: 67% for Odoxa, 64% for BVA Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2017, 12:22:16 PM Antono: Would you consider voting for Melenchon, if he continues to poll around 3rd, to maybe have a leftist in the seccobd round. Honestly, no. I'm sick of tactical voting. I've made my choice, and I'm going to vote for the only candidate running in this election who would actually made a good President. Besides, Mélenchon is probably overpolling a bit at this point. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Mike88 on April 14, 2017, 03:00:40 PM I found in a portuguese blogue this graphic which shows the support of immigrant sons to the different candidates: (Macron, Fillon and Hamon aren't in it, so don't know if it's shows an acurate picture but here goes.)
() Portuguese immigrant descent are more likely to vote Le Pen... Yikes :( Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 14, 2017, 03:22:09 PM I found in a portuguese blogue this graphic which shows the support of immigrant sons to the different candidates: (Macron, Fillon and Hamon aren't in it, so don't know if it's shows an acurate picture but here goes.) () Portuguese immigrant descent are more likely to vote Le Pen... Yikes :( Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 14, 2017, 04:20:15 PM Antono: Would you consider voting for Melenchon, if he continues to poll around 3rd, to maybe have a leftist in the seccobd round. Honestly, no. I'm sick of tactical voting. I've made my choice, and I'm going to vote for the only candidate running in this election who would actually made a good President. Besides, Mélenchon is probably overpolling a bit at this point. Good for You. I genuinely think Hamon is one of the best candidates, politically speaking, to have stood anywhere in the world in recent times. It is genuinely depressing to see the French rejecting him like this, especially for someone like melenchon who wants to try and hide behind a border that just can't work any more; or for someone like Macron offering the same brand of centrist neoliberalism that has put the left in its current crisis. Today's polls look like Panzergirl should be panicking more than FBM. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2017, 04:38:45 PM Long Roger Cohen feature on the race. (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/14/opinion/sunday/france-in-the-end-of-days.html)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 14, 2017, 06:02:27 PM Besides, Mélenchon is probably overpolling a bit at this point. Far Left candidates typically overpoll by a few points, yes. If usual patterns apply then he would need to be a few points inside the cut in the polls rather than on the cusp or a few below... of course this is a tendency rather than a rule (a critical distinction as we have all learned in recent years). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Mike88 on April 14, 2017, 07:20:42 PM I found in a portuguese blogue this graphic which shows the support of immigrant sons to the different candidates: (Macron, Fillon and Hamon aren't in it, so don't know if it's shows an acurate picture but here goes.) () Portuguese immigrant descent are more likely to vote Le Pen... Yikes :( Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2017, 08:17:00 PM I found in a portuguese blogue this graphic which shows the support of immigrant sons to the different candidates: (Macron, Fillon and Hamon aren't in it, so don't know if it's shows an acurate picture but here goes.) () Portuguese immigrant descent are more likely to vote Le Pen... Yikes :( ...and Italians right behind. What the f**k. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Babeuf on April 14, 2017, 08:31:12 PM Based on the title of the chart it appears to be a poll from some point in 2016 when all those candidacies were plausible.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: rob in cal on April 14, 2017, 10:13:14 PM Could the high score of Portugese and Italian immigrant descendants (assuming the poll has some validity) for Le Pen be related to the working class status of many of them?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 15, 2017, 04:28:03 AM About the Fillon's suits. After the controversy he claimed that he gave back the suits to the man who had offered them.
Mediapart says that Fillon did not gave back the real luxury suits, but gave back 3 others suits, less prestigious. Robert Bourgi (who offered the suits) also says that Fillon asked him to lie. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin on April 15, 2017, 10:02:54 AM Facebook targets 30,000 fake France accounts before election
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/facebook-targets-30000-fake-france-accounts-election-46793944 Quote Facebook says it has targeted 30,000 fake accounts linked to France ahead of the country's presidential election, as part of a worldwide effort against misinformation. The company said Thursday it's trying to "reduce the spread of material generated through inauthentic activity, including spam, misinformation, or other deceptive content that is often shared by creators of fake accounts." It said its efforts "enabled us to take action" against the French accounts and that it is removing sites with the highest traffic. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 15, 2017, 11:42:46 AM 500,000 people have received two electoral card, meaning that they are registered to vote in two cities.
They could theoretically vote two times even if they would risk up to two years of imprisonment and a €15,000 fine. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 15, 2017, 01:13:42 PM About the Fillon's suits. After the controversy he claimed that he gave back the suits to the man who had offered them. Mediapart says that Fillon did not gave back the real luxury suits, but gave back 3 others suits, less prestigious. Robert Bourgi (who offered the suits) also says that Fillon asked him to lie. This is just amazing. I mean wow. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Bumaye on April 15, 2017, 04:40:16 PM So looking at the lastest polls from BVA, Odoxa and Ipsos they all show the same situation for the 2nd round:
Macron > Mélenchon > Fillon > Le Pen Let's me sleep quite well I have to say. Especially because I could see the center and left candidates over perform because of Hamon-supporters who see that he has no chance. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hydera on April 15, 2017, 05:53:45 PM Could the high score of Portugese and Italian immigrant descendants (assuming the poll has some validity) for Le Pen be related to the working class status of many of them? Its not different from that in the US. Italians in the US tend to average between lower middle and middle-middle income. competition from immigrants have been a huge factor in why they tend to hold anti immigration attitudes. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on April 16, 2017, 03:20:48 AM About the Fillon's suits. After the controversy he claimed that he gave back the suits to the man who had offered them. Mediapart says that Fillon did not gave back the real luxury suits, but gave back 3 others suits, less prestigious. Robert Bourgi (who offered the suits) also says that Fillon asked him to lie. This is just amazing. I mean wow. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 16, 2017, 07:34:47 AM About the Fillon's suits. After the controversy he claimed that he gave back the suits to the man who had offered them. Mediapart says that Fillon did not gave back the real luxury suits, but gave back 3 others suits, less prestigious. Robert Bourgi (who offered the suits) also says that Fillon asked him to lie. This is just amazing. I mean wow. Not only is he a mythomaniac, he is also a kleptomaniac. We already have enough Presidents with pathological mental illnesses in the world right now! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: The Other Castro on April 16, 2017, 09:57:27 AM PredictIt odds:
Next President of France: Macron - 54% Le Pen - 29% Mélenchon - 15% Fillon - 12% Odds of making the top 2: Le Pen - 87% Macron - 68% Mélenchon - 28% Fillon - 16% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: rob in cal on April 16, 2017, 10:55:49 AM How on earth are the Le Pen odds to win the presidency so high?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 16, 2017, 10:57:48 AM How on earth are the Le Pen odds to win the presidency so high? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 16, 2017, 11:26:51 AM How on earth are the Le Pen odds to win the presidency so high? That's an absurd comparison, polls on Brexit said it was going to be very close and half the polls in the final week had Brexit ahead. It's a myth that polls ever said a Remain win was guaranteed. Similarly the polls in the US has Clinton winning by 3% and she won the popular vote by 2%. How can anyone compare that to France where every poll has had LePen losing the second round by 20 points or more and very poll says that over 60% of the French would never vote for LePen under any circumstances Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: adma on April 16, 2017, 04:10:38 PM Similarly the polls in the US has Clinton winning by 3% and she won the popular vote by 2%. And France has no Electoral College, to boot. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Beet on April 16, 2017, 04:13:53 PM Similarly the polls in the US has Clinton winning by 3% and she won the popular vote by 2%. And France has no Electoral College, to boot. Sure, California helped the national polls save face. But France doesn't have any California's. The whole place is one giant Midwest. So it's more akin to Brexit. The far right always under polls in Europe. Le Pen will win for sure. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MalaspinaGold on April 16, 2017, 04:17:07 PM Similarly the polls in the US has Clinton winning by 3% and she won the popular vote by 2%. And France has no Electoral College, to boot. Sure, California helped the national polls save face. But France doesn't have any California's. The whole place is one giant Midwest. So it's more akin to Brexit. The far right always under polls in Europe. Le Pen will win for sure. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Maxwell on April 16, 2017, 04:17:50 PM Similarly the polls in the US has Clinton winning by 3% and she won the popular vote by 2%. And France has no Electoral College, to boot. Sure, California helped the national polls save face. But France doesn't have any California's. The whole place is one giant Midwest. So it's more akin to Brexit. The far right always under polls in Europe. Le Pen will win for sure. tell that to Geert Wilders. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 16, 2017, 04:32:57 PM The whole place is one giant Midwest. hahahaha wtf Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 16, 2017, 04:36:39 PM The whole place is one giant Midwest. hahahaha wtf Emigration is a real issue in France though, I think the only two to have mentioned it are NKM in the primary and Macron. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 16, 2017, 04:52:18 PM So from following the news, I would have to think that Le Pen and Macron are going to be advancing. However, let's entertain the thought that Melenchon surges, and it's him and Le Pen in the final round. Who would be likely to win? Polls say Mélenchon, but I think it would be close. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: RodPresident on April 16, 2017, 05:49:14 PM I'm Melenchon supporter, but I think that if one goes to run-off against him is Macron and not Panzer Girl. Fillon pragmatic voters will go to Macron, while FN scandals will help other anti-establishment candidates (NDA, Asselineau) and even to Mélenchon.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on April 16, 2017, 06:16:14 PM I just found out that Melenchon wants to give French citizenship to Julian Assange.
F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on April 16, 2017, 06:28:40 PM When are we gonna get more polls
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Figueira on April 16, 2017, 07:09:05 PM I think I'd vote Macron. He is awful, but the other three options are REALLY awful. Too bad Hamon has no chance; I would be very happy if he won.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mgop on April 16, 2017, 07:20:49 PM i was for le pen, but now i'm for melenchon. anyway that would be second round from dreams.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on April 16, 2017, 10:43:42 PM John Oliver covered the election today an as a American may I say Le Pen's father is a f**king monster
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 16, 2017, 11:02:20 PM John Oliver covered the election today an as a American may I say Le Pen's father is a f**king monster Ah, I love it when newbies find out about the awfulness of French politics. :) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 17, 2017, 02:22:39 AM I just found out that Melenchon wants to give French citizenship to Julian Assange. F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM So you'd support Le Pen over him in a runoff? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on April 17, 2017, 04:28:33 AM I just found out that Melenchon wants to give French citizenship to Julian Assange. F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM So you'd support Le Pen over him in a runoff? While both are terrible in this regard, Le Pen is even more of a Putin hack, so while I can't speak for BRTD, Melenchon is probably preferable. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 17, 2017, 05:30:50 AM Is this even debatable considering Le Pen is even more of a religious bigot than Trump, will ban all non-Christian symbols & headgear & they whole anti-semitic talks have started in her party again.
I mean Melenchon has problems, but Le Pen, seriously? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Bumaye on April 17, 2017, 07:21:32 AM When are we gonna get more polls Now. OpinionWay: Macron 22% (=) Le Pen 22% (-1%) Fillon 21% (+1%) Mélenchon 18% (+1%) Hamon 8% (-1%) Dupont-Aignan 3% (=) Poutou 2% (=) Lassalle 2% (=) 2nd Round: Macron vs. Le Pen: 64% - 36% (+2% Macron) Fillon vs. Le Pen: 60% - 40% (+2% Fillon) The sample size was unusually large for OpinionWay with 2,168. Normal is ~1,400. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 17, 2017, 07:28:38 AM so.....melenchon has taken enough le pen/macron voters that fillon is back even while his reputation is soooo finished.
perfect end to a nightmare. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 17, 2017, 07:29:26 AM It would be quite amusing if LePen missed the run off
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on April 17, 2017, 07:41:51 AM The lifelong RPR/UMP/LR voters will decide they don't care about corruption after all and come home just in time for Fillon to get to the second round with 22-23% of the vote. I'm calling it now.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 17, 2017, 08:39:46 AM The lifelong RPR/UMP/LR voters will decide they don't care about corruption after all and come home just in time for Fillon to get to the second round with 22-23% of the vote. I'm calling it now. Yep, with those margins I think this is what will happen too. THey listen to Zemmour enough for them to collectively decide that way. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: peterthlee on April 17, 2017, 08:41:00 AM When are we gonna get more polls Now. OpinionWay: Macron 22% (=) Le Pen 22% (-1%) Fillon 21% (+1%) Mélenchon 18% (+1%) Hamon 8% (-1%) Dupont-Aignan 3% (=) Poutou 2% (=) Lassalle 2% (=) 2nd Round: Macron vs. Le Pen: 64% - 36% (+2% Macron) Fillon vs. Le Pen: 60% - 40% (+2% Fillon) The sample size was unusually large for OpinionWay with 2,168. Normal is ~1,400. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 17, 2017, 08:58:23 AM Its interesting how we have all been told repeatedly that LePen's vote is "rock solid" and that her voters are very unlikely to change their minds...and yet she has steadily lost ground over the last few weeks from high 20s to low 20s...i guess her vote isn't so solid after all!
Latest Ifop (April 13-17): Macron 23% (+0.5%) Le Pen 22.5% (-0.5%) Fillon 19.5% (+0.5%) Mélenchon 19.5% (+0.5%) Hamon 7.5% (-0.5%) Dupont-Aignan 3% (=) Poutou 1.5% (-0.5%) Lassalle 1% (=) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on April 17, 2017, 09:07:58 AM https://youtu.be/hkZir1L7fSY
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: BundouYMB on April 17, 2017, 09:16:41 AM Its interesting how we have all been told repeatedly that LePen's vote is "rock solid" and that her voters are very unlikely to change their minds...and yet she has steadily lost ground over the last few weeks from high 20s to low 20s...i guess her vote isn't so solid after all! Le Pen's vote IS solid. She's polling a lower *share* of the vote b/c a few weeks ago left-wing voters were saying they weren't going to turnout and now more are saying they will. Just look at Ifop tracking. At the end of March 62% of respondents said they intend to vote, now 70% intend to. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on April 17, 2017, 09:18:51 AM Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 17, 2017, 09:21:39 AM Its interesting how we have all been told repeatedly that LePen's vote is "rock solid" and that her voters are very unlikely to change their minds...and yet she has steadily lost ground over the last few weeks from high 20s to low 20s...i guess her vote isn't so solid after all! Le Pen's vote IS solid. She's polling a lower *share* of the vote b/c a few weeks ago left-wing voters were saying they weren't going to turnout and now more are saying they will. Just look at Ifop tracking. At the end of March 62% of respondents said they intend to vote, now 70% intend to. Also I am sure, without any real proof, that Le Pen will beat her polling. I feel this way because I am think that Dupont-Aignan will not win 3.5%-4% as indicated by his polling. Many of his voters will go to Le Pen and some to Fillon. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 17, 2017, 09:48:43 AM Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted. Payback for 2002. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 17, 2017, 09:56:21 AM Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 17, 2017, 09:59:07 AM Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted. If I were French I would have initially supported Hamon...but if i wanted to vote "strategically" I would vote for Macron not Melenchon. I find Melenchon to be a scary demagogue who wants to wreck the European Union and wants France to adopt a pro-Putin foreign policy. I cannot go along with those dangerous positions. Macron has his faults, but he is by far the least of the four evils. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: afleitch on April 17, 2017, 10:52:57 AM A Le Pen - Fillon runoff. And in 2022 the French left will still run about 5 candidates.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: rob in cal on April 17, 2017, 11:04:47 AM Well, I set up an account at predictit. Bought some "no" shares on Le Pen winning at 72. (so I'm basically saying I don't think she has a 28% chance of winning, not sure how much her true chance is, but its not 28% in my view).
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: The Other Castro on April 17, 2017, 11:13:58 AM Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are:
() https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 17, 2017, 11:15:22 AM Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are: () https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592 I share his doubts... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MaxQue on April 17, 2017, 11:18:00 AM Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are: () https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592 However, that's normal, given the usual French polling methods (they use quota sampling). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Ronnie on April 17, 2017, 11:31:49 AM The fact that Macron is hanging on to a runoff by his fingernail tips just shows how weak the pro EU center-to-center-left is right now. Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, he should probably be in the thirties, at least.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 17, 2017, 11:33:33 AM Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, i am not sure if the EU topic is the most important point of this election inside of france. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 17, 2017, 11:36:33 AM The fact that Macron is hanging on to a runoff by his fingernail tips just shows how weak the pro EU center-to-center-left is right now. Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, he should probably be in the thirties, at least. Macron is running as a complete upstart with no party organization and an overwhelming majority of voters having never heard of him before a couple of months ago. To be honest, in my opinion, there's no reason why he should be doing as well as he is. Also, the last time a "Centrist pro-EU" candidate made it to the second round (not runoff) was 1981 with Giscard, although the comparison of their economic liberalism are somewhat different. Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, i am not sure if the EU topic is the most important point of this election inside of france. Also, this is correct. The French are much more concerned with sclerotic growth and an "erosion of values," whatever that means. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 17, 2017, 12:06:45 PM Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are: () https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592 However, that's normal, given the usual French polling methods (they use quota sampling). Exactly. This level of consistency is very common for the presidential election. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 17, 2017, 12:17:49 PM The issue salience has really been as divided as the electoral field, and that has really harmed Panzergirl. Her father basically got through in 2002 because of the public security issue salience that exponentionally built up to the very final day. But she has failed to frame this as globalist elite vs the People issue which could have gone far IMO, and I have barely heard about the Rassemblement Bleu Marine that was supposed to federate the souverainistes. Instead she's spent way too much time talking about the intricacies of her EU plan. She's ran a poor campaign considering the circumstances. You really wonder what the FN could have achieved under Bruno Mégret rather than the Le Pen family enterprise (and shudder).
The fact that the campaign also revolved around Pénélopegate for a long while didn't help. But then what is to blame for this? The very party system that the French people will hopefully vote against, with their primaries and factionalism. Good ridance. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2017, 01:02:11 PM F**k strategic voting.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 17, 2017, 01:54:01 PM Elabe poll
04/16-17 Macron 24 (+0,5) Marine 23 (+0,5) Fillon 19,5 (-0,5) Melanchon 18 (-0,5) Hamon 8 (-1) NDA 4 (+1) Poutou 2 Lasalle 0,5 Artaud 0,5 Asselineau 0,5 Cheminade 0 68 % sure to vote (+5) 73 % sure of their choice (Marine 89, Fillon 76, Macron 72, Melanchon 74, Hamon 53 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 17, 2017, 01:57:28 PM Ifop poll
Macron 23 (+0,5) Marine 22,5 (-0,5) Fillon 19,5 (+0,5) Melanchon 19,5 (+0,5) Hamon 7,5 (-0,5) NDA 4 (=) Poutou 1,5 (-0,5) Asselineau 1 (=) Lasalle 1 (=) Turnout: 70 % (+1) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 17, 2017, 02:00:36 PM Opinionway
Macron 22 (=) Marine 22 (-1) Fillon 21 (+1) Melanchon 18 (+1) Hamon 8 (-1) NDA 3 (=) Lasalle 2 (=) Poutou 2 (=) Asselineau 1 (-1) Arthaud 1 (+1) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 17, 2017, 02:06:00 PM Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted. Can you blame him when a fraud like Hillary was on the ticket for Dems? Never understood how someone so radically left with -8 odd Eco score can support a centrist like HRC, but anyways... @ Thread - Le Pen had a core working class base as well many of whom are economically pretty left & she will lose some of those voters, the more she is exposed, I think Poutou did some damage to her as well. The higher the overall turnout, the worse it is for someone like Le Pen. Having said I think Melenchon & Le Pen have the best chance of outperforming the polls as their base will be incredibly energized & Hamon the worst because voting for him is simply wasting a vote. Fillon/Melenchon are still 3% off Le Pen, pretty close & is this becomes 1-2%, all bets are off & it is a pure toss-up based on last minute voters & turnout ! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Shadows on April 17, 2017, 02:09:19 PM The fact that Macron is hanging on to a runoff by his fingernail tips just shows how weak the pro EU center-to-center-left is right now. Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, he should probably be in the thirties, at least. Macron is running as a complete upstart with no party organization and an overwhelming majority of voters having never heard of him before a couple of months ago. To be honest, in my opinion, there's no reason why he should be doing as well as he is. Also, the last time a "Centrist pro-EU" candidate made it to the second round (not runoff) was 1981 with Giscard, although the comparison of their economic liberalism are somewhat different. Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, i am not sure if the EU topic is the most important point of this election inside of france. Also, this is correct. The French are much more concerned with sclerotic growth and an "erosion of values," whatever that means. True, none of the people I know are convinced of him - No1 knows what his policies are, very vague n stuff n he could totally govern differently, he has no party organization. Fillon is worrying with his rise now, he is such a bad candidate he may actually lose to Le Pen with record low turnout with Le Pen's base motivated. Who wants to vote for people like Fillon anyways? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: The Other Castro on April 17, 2017, 02:39:54 PM Le Terrain Poll: (lol)
Macron 24% Mélanchon 22% (!) Le Pen 21.5% Fillon 17.5% Hamon 8% NDA 3.5% Poutou 1.5% Arthaud 1% Lasalle 0.5% Asselineau 0.5% https://blog-scanresearch.leterrain.fr/2017/04/17/jl-melenchon-devance-de-peu-m-le-pen/ Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Ronnie on April 17, 2017, 02:52:48 PM Would Le Pen voters even turn out in the runoff if it comes down to Melanchon and Macron?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on April 17, 2017, 02:54:01 PM The fact that Macron is hanging on to a runoff by his fingernail tips just shows how weak the pro EU center-to-center-left is right now. Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, he should probably be in the thirties, at least. Macron is running as a complete upstart with no party organization and an overwhelming majority of voters having never heard of him before a couple of months ago. To be honest, in my opinion, there's no reason why he should be doing as well as he is. Also, the last time a "Centrist pro-EU" candidate made it to the second round (not runoff) was 1981 with Giscard, although the comparison of their economic liberalism are somewhat different. Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, i am not sure if the EU topic is the most important point of this election inside of france. Also, this is correct. The French are much more concerned with sclerotic growth and an "erosion of values," whatever that means. True, none of the people I know are convinced of him - No1 knows what his policies are, very vague n stuff n he could totally govern differently, he has no party organization. Fillon is worrying with his rise now, he is such a bad candidate he may actually lose to Le Pen with record low turnout with Le Pen's base motivated. Who wants to vote for people like Fillon anyways? So far Fillon leads Le Pen in all polls (he scores 54-58% against Le Pen) so I'm not extremely worried about Fillon losing to Le Pen. But a run-off against Fillon probably is the best chance Le Pen will ever get to become president. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MaxQue on April 17, 2017, 02:54:07 PM Would Le Pen voters even turn out in the runoff if it comes down to Melanchon and Macron? A significant number would vote for Mélenchon (he is anti-establishment as Le Pen). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 17, 2017, 03:03:35 PM Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted. Can you blame him when a fraud like Hillary was on the ticket for Dems? Never understood how someone so radically left with -8 odd Eco score can support a centrist like HRC, but Under the American electoral system, only Hillary Clinton could've prevented a xenophobic nationalist from becoming President. So her platform wasn't perfectly socialist? I don't care, she's miles goddamn better than the alternative. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 17, 2017, 03:59:28 PM @ Thread - Le Pen had a core working class base as well many of whom are economically pretty left & she will lose some of those voters, the more she is exposed, I think Poutou did some damage to her as well. The higher the overall turnout, the worse it is for someone like Le Pen. Having said I think Melenchon & Le Pen have the best chance of outperforming the polls as their base will be incredibly energized & Hamon the worst because voting for him is simply wasting a vote. Fillon/Melenchon are still 3% off Le Pen, pretty close & is this becomes 1-2%, all bets are off & it is a pure toss-up based on last minute voters & turnout ! Polling has generally been pretty much spot on for Le Pen in recent elections. The most likely polling error is going to be Macron, because he has never stood before. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 17, 2017, 04:42:49 PM When are we gonna get more polls Now. OpinionWay: Macron 22% (=) Le Pen 22% (-1%) Fillon 21% (+1%) Mélenchon 18% (+1%) Hamon 8% (-1%) Dupont-Aignan 3% (=) Poutou 2% (=) Lassalle 2% (=) 2nd Round: Macron vs. Le Pen: 64% - 36% (+2% Macron) Fillon vs. Le Pen: 60% - 40% (+2% Fillon) The sample size was unusually large for OpinionWay with 2,168. Normal is ~1,400. Amazing how close this is getting to a 4 way tie. They should poll all 6 runoff possibilities. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Maxwell on April 17, 2017, 05:04:33 PM The most hilarious potential run-off would be Melenchon and Fillon, and I'm beginning to suspect that is the outcome. I really can't predict - but Macron's numbers have been slightly more steady than Le Pen, who seems to be draining support to Melenchon and to Fillon.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 17, 2017, 05:15:34 PM The most hilarious potential run-off would be Melenchon and Fillon, and I'm beginning to suspect that is the outcome. I really can't predict - but Macron's numbers have been slightly more steady than Le Pen, who seems to be draining support to Melenchon and to Fillon. Le Pen's support hasn't changed since the start. She had 89% of her voters who said it was certainty they were going to vote for her. Her share going down is because of a sudden undecided swing towards alternative candidates. Hence why the media are rightly point towards Macron losing voters. He still has a lot of undecided. Would Le Pen voters even turn out in the runoff if it comes down to Melanchon and Macron? A significant number would vote for Mélenchon (he is anti-establishment as Le Pen). I'm not sure its a significant number and I doubt it would be enough. Remember that FN fought years against the PCF. Her core 15-18% will not touch someone like Mélenchon - the rest would more than likely stay home. Overall in the transfers only about 20% of her entire voter base would transfer to Mélenchon IIRC (the other thread with the figures got deleted). Macron actually does better as a second choice for FN voters than the others. It would certainly make for an interesting FN internal fight as to what to do but if Marine doesn't make the second round she resigns immediately. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2017, 05:47:24 PM https://youtu.be/hkZir1L7fSY hahahaha larry skywalker omg Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Intell on April 17, 2017, 07:31:02 PM F**k strategic voting. Didn't you lambast voters for voting for Stein, or at least told people, to vote for Clinton to defeat Sanders? Would you say the same thing, if Hamon was in this position instead of Melenchon? I think before you were saying, that Melenchon voters should vote for Hamon, or am I wrong? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 17, 2017, 08:50:21 PM The Orleanist pretender to the French throne has endorsed Fillon. This changes everything!
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on April 17, 2017, 09:55:20 PM The Orleanist pretender to the French throne has endorsed Fillon. This changes everything! Interesting question, though - do royalists (confined basically entirely to the royal pretenders themselves these days) generally prefer LR or generally disavow politics as far too republican? Is an endorsement of an LR politician by a pretender unusual, or not? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: nicholas.slaydon on April 17, 2017, 10:47:27 PM https://youtu.be/hkZir1L7fSY hahahaha larry skywalker omg Don't forget "the weird bear". Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 17, 2017, 11:01:59 PM The Orleanist pretender to the French throne has endorsed Fillon. This changes everything! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 18, 2017, 12:06:11 AM F**k strategic voting. Didn't you lambast voters for voting for Stein, or at least told people, to vote for Clinton to defeat Sanders? Would you say the same thing, if Hamon was in this position instead of Melenchon? I think before you were saying, that Melenchon voters should vote for Hamon, or am I wrong? Pretty sure I didn't "lambast" anyone, no. But anyway, I'd argue that the conditions are a bit different here than in the 2016 US race. Of course I'd urge Mélenchon voters to vote for Hamon. I still think Mélenchon voters now should vote for Hamon, because Hamon is the only candidate in this race who is a good person and would actually be a good President. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on April 18, 2017, 12:17:54 AM Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted. Can you blame him when a fraud like Hillary was on the ticket for Dems? Never understood how someone so radically left with -8 odd Eco score can support a centrist like HRC, but anyways... Let's look at the Hillary alternative candidates: -Donald Trump -The social darwinists of the Libertarian Party. -Some crazy lady who paid a friendly visit to Putin and thinks wi-fi causes brain damage and her running mate who thinks Jews shot down MH17, that Bernie Sanders is a white supremacist, and that Assad's shame elections are paragons of democracy to be celebrated. -A Mormon who is basically a normal Republican. -A bunch of assorted fringe right crazies and various Trot or fringe left crazies. Please tell me which of these was a better option than Hillary. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on April 18, 2017, 04:47:42 AM Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted. Can you blame him when a fraud like Hillary was on the ticket for Dems? Never understood how someone so radically left with -8 odd Eco score can support a centrist like HRC, but anyways... Let's look at the Hillary alternative candidates: -Donald Trump -The social darwinists of the Libertarian Party. -Some crazy lady who paid a friendly visit to Putin and thinks wi-fi causes brain damage and her running mate who thinks Jews shot down MH17, that Bernie Sanders is a white supremacist, and that Assad's shame elections are paragons of democracy to be celebrated. -A Mormon who is basically a normal Republican. -A bunch of assorted fringe right crazies and various Trot or fringe left crazies. Please tell me which of these was a better option than Hillary. Donald Trump Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hnv1 on April 18, 2017, 04:55:17 AM The Orleanist pretender to the French throne has endorsed Fillon. This changes everything! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 18, 2017, 06:38:31 AM The Orleanist pretender to the French throne has endorsed Fillon. This changes everything! Monarchism has its niche, just like Assileneau's ideas, and its vocal enough to be considered larger than 100. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 18, 2017, 07:50:12 AM The Orleanist pretender to the French throne has endorsed Fillon. This changes everything! Monarchism has its niche, just like Assileneau's ideas, and its vocal enough to be considered larger than 100. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2017, 07:54:25 AM OpinionWay
Marcon 23 Le Pen 22 Fillon 20 (-1) Melenchon 19 (+1) Hamon 8 Hamon vote holding up pretty well. I thought he will be down to 5% by now. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 18, 2017, 10:27:17 AM OpinionWay Marcon 23 Le Pen 22 Fillon 20 (-1) Melenchon 19 (+1) Hamon 8 Hamon vote holding up pretty well. I thought he will be down to 5% by now. Actually the 23% for Macron represents a (+1) compared to the Opinion Way poll from yesterday Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 18, 2017, 10:31:47 AM Incredibly ironic that the Republicans would get the endorsement of a pretender.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 18, 2017, 10:36:22 AM And it's the first time that Macron leads in this poll.
Two men have been arrested as they planed an imminent attack during the presidential elections. The candidates were advised last week. It's unclear at this point if the suspected terrorists targeted a particular candidate. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: rob in cal on April 18, 2017, 10:40:10 AM What about the Bourbon pretender to the throne? Would he be more likely to endorse Le Pen or NDA?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 18, 2017, 10:41:47 AM The Orleanist pretender to the French throne has endorsed Fillon. This changes everything! Monarchism has its niche, just like Assileneau's ideas, and its vocal enough to be considered larger than 100. Never forget! ;D Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 18, 2017, 11:16:41 AM Apparently François Fillon was the target, he was asked to wear a bullet-proof vest yesterday (he refused).
Ifop Macron: 23.5% (+0.5) Le Pen: 22.5% (=) Fillon: 19.5% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (-0.5) Macron seems to regain some support this last few days. He had an important day yesterday (two big TV interviews, a huge rally in Paris) maybe he will expand his gains until the vote. Tomorrow it will be the final poll of the Ipsos poll for Le Monde / Cévipof, with more than a 15,000 people sample, it will be interesting. Edit: Kantar Sofres poll Macron: 24% (=, since April, 7) Le Pen: 23% (-1) Fillon: 18.5% (+1.5) Mélenchon: 18% (=) Turnout is at 78%. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: warandwar on April 18, 2017, 12:13:00 PM Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted. Can you blame him when a fraud like Hillary was on the ticket for Dems? Never understood how someone so radically left with -8 odd Eco score can support a centrist like HRC, but anyways... Let's look at the Hillary alternative candidates: -Donald Trump -The social darwinists of the Libertarian Party. -Some crazy lady who paid a friendly visit to Putin and thinks wi-fi causes brain damage and her running mate who thinks Jews shot down MH17, that Bernie Sanders is a white supremacist, and that Assad's shame elections are paragons of democracy to be celebrated. -A Mormon who is basically a normal Republican. -A bunch of assorted fringe right crazies and various Trot or fringe left crazies. Please tell me which of these was a better option than Hillary. The Trots Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on April 18, 2017, 12:44:14 PM SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT
() still wrong obviously Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 18, 2017, 12:46:38 PM SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT () still wrong obviously lol Macron Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 18, 2017, 01:15:10 PM So, Macron is basically the French version of Ron Paul then?
() Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on April 18, 2017, 01:19:34 PM Seems that French media is corrupt us well. They promote and felate Macron, because they don't want Melenchon to emerge as the left wing opposition.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on April 18, 2017, 01:20:47 PM SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT () still wrong obviously But of course "flawless beautiful Melenchon <3" gets the true leftie stamp of approval over Hamon. Some of the dumbest political analysis ever: Quote Macron is a classic libertarian in the US sense, with a socially liberal outlook and, crucially, an extreme right wing (ie neoliberal) economic agenda. And: Quote He‘s certainly the closest of the candidates to Social Darwinism. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 18, 2017, 01:34:12 PM Seems that French media is corrupt us well. They promote and felate Macron, because they don't want Melenchon to emerge as the left wing opposition. No. The media have been quite nice to Mélenchon this last month. It seems that they read his platform only a week ago (to discover the Venezuela-Cuba alliance, etc.) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 18, 2017, 02:33:50 PM And it's the first time that Macron leads in this poll. Two men have been arrested as they planed an imminent attack during the presidential elections. The candidates were advised last week. It's unclear at this point if the suspected terrorists targeted a particular candidate. Damn, had the terrorist attack actually happened it would have been a game changer. Difficult to say who'd benefit, but I guess it'd help Le Pen and hurt Macron. Something like that happened here in 04 and it changed the polls by around 9 points. (prediction was PP+4 result was PSOE+5 or so) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on April 18, 2017, 07:56:18 PM And it's the first time that Macron leads in this poll. Two men have been arrested as they planed an imminent attack during the presidential elections. The candidates were advised last week. It's unclear at this point if the suspected terrorists targeted a particular candidate. Damn, had the terrorist attack actually happened it would have been a game changer. Difficult to say who'd benefit, but I guess it'd help Le Pen and hurt Macron. Something like that happened here in 04 and it changed the polls by around 9 points. (prediction was PP+4 result was PSOE+5 or so) Wasn't that mostly because it turned a lot of people against the Iraq War, rather than just being a terrorist attack effect? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 19, 2017, 12:49:25 AM Last poll Ipsos / Cevipof / Le Monde
Macron : 23% (-2 since April, 2) Le Pen : 22.5% (-2.5) Fillon : 19.5% (+2) Mélenchon : 19% (+4) Turnout : 72% (+6) Same results than the other polls but in this one, with the large sample (8,000) the gap is outside the margin of error (1 point) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 19, 2017, 05:19:54 AM And it's the first time that Macron leads in this poll. Two men have been arrested as they planed an imminent attack during the presidential elections. The candidates were advised last week. It's unclear at this point if the suspected terrorists targeted a particular candidate. Damn, had the terrorist attack actually happened it would have been a game changer. Difficult to say who'd benefit, but I guess it'd help Le Pen and hurt Macron. Something like that happened here in 04 and it changed the polls by around 9 points. (prediction was PP+4 result was PSOE+5 or so) Wasn't that mostly because it turned a lot of people against the Iraq War, rather than just being a terrorist attack effect? Correct me if I am wrong, track, but I think the reason why PP got swung by the terrorist attack was mainly because of the way they handled it too i.e blaming ETA for political gain. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Velasco on April 19, 2017, 05:45:23 AM And it's the first time that Macron leads in this poll. Two men have been arrested as they planed an imminent attack during the presidential elections. The candidates were advised last week. It's unclear at this point if the suspected terrorists targeted a particular candidate. Damn, had the terrorist attack actually happened it would have been a game changer. Difficult to say who'd benefit, but I guess it'd help Le Pen and hurt Macron. Something like that happened here in 04 and it changed the polls by around 9 points. (prediction was PP+4 result was PSOE+5 or so) Wasn't that mostly because it turned a lot of people against the Iraq War, rather than just being a terrorist attack effect? Correct me if I am wrong, track, but I think the reason why PP got swung by the terrorist attack was mainly because of the way they handled it too i.e blaming ETA for political gain. Exactly, the government lied and insisted in blaming ETA against all evidence. Prior the terrorist attacks polls said that around 90% was against the Iraq War, so there wasn't a lot of people left to turn against it. Seems that French media is corrupt us well. They promote and felate Macron, because they don't want Melenchon to emerge as the left wing opposition. No. The media have been quite nice to Mélenchon this last month. It seems that they read his platform only a week ago (to discover the Venezuela-Cuba alliance, etc.) I guess that media was kind with Mélenchon as long as he wasn't perceived as a threat. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 19, 2017, 05:45:52 AM Don't want to speak too soon, but it seems like the gap between the top two and Mélenchon and Fillon has stopped closing. Still close enough for the result to be uncertain
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 19, 2017, 06:15:39 AM macron looks safe again...all others are question marks.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Gustaf on April 19, 2017, 09:10:02 AM SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT () still wrong obviously My god, that's dumb. So, they're saying a candidate further to the right on economics than Macron is unthinkable, when he's running on some minor changes to FRANCE? And that Le Pen is the most authoritarian candidate one can imagine? Up there with Hitler and Stalin? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on April 19, 2017, 09:22:42 AM Lol political compass. Why do they put Macron to the right of Fillon on economics? Does anyone know where Macron and Fillon stand on free trade btw? That's the only area where Macron might be more right-wing than Fillon.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on April 19, 2017, 09:29:57 AM SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT () still wrong obviously My god, that's dumb. So, they're saying a candidate further to the right on economics than Macron is unthinkable, when he's running on some minor changes to FRANCE? And that Le Pen is the most authoritarian candidate one can imagine? Up there with Hitler and Stalin? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 19, 2017, 09:46:26 AM SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT () still wrong obviously My god, that's dumb. So, they're saying a candidate further to the right on economics than Macron is unthinkable, when he's running on some minor changes to FRANCE? And that Le Pen is the most authoritarian candidate one can imagine? Up there with Hitler and Stalin? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 19, 2017, 11:13:56 AM Tracking polls
OpinionWay Macron: 23% (=) Le Pen: 22% (=) Fillon: 20% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (=) Ifop Macron: 23.5% (=) Le Pen: 22.5% (=) Fillon: 19.5% (=) Mélenchon: 18.5% (-0.5) Ipsos (which will work for France 2 for the election night) warns that they might not be able to announce who will be in the runoff Sunday at 8pm (when the last polls will close). Juppé was in a campaign event this morning with Fillon. The choice of words is interesting. He said that Macron is not presidential "for the moment", he supports Fillon's platform "for the main part" (According to Le Canard Enchaîné after a Fillon's statement that an anti-gay marriage movement could be in his government Juppé declared that if it was the case, he will be in the opposition) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: kyc0705 on April 19, 2017, 12:12:06 PM SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT () still wrong obviously I also fundamentally doubt the notion that any major mainstream candidate for any national office would be on the bottom half of the chart. In particular, that's some serious projecting they're doing for Macron's economic AND social provisions. To quote JFK, back and to the left. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 19, 2017, 01:13:51 PM Can we actually post the entirety of the polls and not just MUH BIG 4 here please? Some of us are still invested in how Hamon is doing.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 19, 2017, 01:25:17 PM Can we actually post the entirety of the polls and not just MUH BIG 4 here please? Some of us are still invested in how Hamon is doing. BVA poll Macron: 24% (+1) Le Pen: 23% (+1) Fillon: 19% (-1) Mélenchon: 19% (-1) Hamon: 8.5% (+1) Dupont-Aignan: 3.5% (+0.5) Poutou: 1.5% (=) The others are under 1% Second round Macron 65%, Le Pen 35% Macron 67%, Fillon 33% Macron 60%, Mélenchon 40% Fillon 57%, Le Pen 43% Mélenchon 60%, Le Pen 40% Mélenchon 58%, Fillon 42% Also about Hamon, his electorate is still incredibly weak, only 50 to 60% of Hamon's voters are sure to vote for him. For the others the certainty of the vote is now around 75% to 80%. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 19, 2017, 02:03:40 PM Thanks. Ugh.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 19, 2017, 02:48:38 PM Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 19, 2017, 03:10:27 PM Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate. I bet on Lasalle Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 19, 2017, 03:12:50 PM Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate. I bet on Lasalle Fingers crossed! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy on April 19, 2017, 03:22:31 PM Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate. I bet on Lasalle Fingers crossed! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 19, 2017, 03:44:52 PM Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate. That man has some very dedicated supporters. Someone has glued his poster on every bridge of what seems like the entire French N road network. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 19, 2017, 03:53:07 PM Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate. I bet on Lasalle Fingers crossed! Tbh I'd vote for Lassalle over most of the "reasonable" candidates. He's definitely a weirdo, but he's also incredibly genuine and his proposed politices are pretty good overall. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Orthogonian Society Treasurer on April 19, 2017, 03:56:52 PM SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT () still wrong obviously lmao at the idea of Melenchon as a left-libertarian, he's perhaps the one modern (wester) political figure who belongs in the red quadrant. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on April 19, 2017, 04:08:29 PM Why would a country that has an opportunity of a lifetime (to elect someone like Melenchon) not take it? Makes no sense. Leftists voting for a former investment banker!?!
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 19, 2017, 04:35:19 PM Unless the polls in France are massively wrong - it seems to me that its almost certain that the run-off will be between Macron and LePen - the only suspense is 1. who will come in first in the first round - Macron or LePen and 2. will Melenchon overtake Fillon and drive him into a humiliating 4th place finish.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on April 19, 2017, 04:39:06 PM Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate. I bet on Lasalle Fingers crossed! Tbh I'd vote for Lassalle over most of the "reasonable" candidates. He's definitely a weirdo, but he's also incredibly genuine and his proposed politices are pretty good overall. On that other Atlas I mentioned that I also switched my support for Lassalle, and as there are some people taking him seriously I think that this is worthy to mention. I've read his program and I agree that his policies are very nice (although in my opinion there were a little too little about foreign policy but he is kind of localist candidate so this is kind of logical). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Chief Justice Keef on April 19, 2017, 08:25:05 PM I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kamala on April 19, 2017, 09:30:28 PM I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger. I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on April 19, 2017, 09:54:53 PM I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger. I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree. Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 19, 2017, 09:58:07 PM I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger. I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree. Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on April 19, 2017, 11:24:49 PM I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger. I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree. Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous. Or that we tend to support gay rights and dislike state-approved homophobia and countries that ignore arrests and executions of lgbt people in their sovereign land? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 19, 2017, 11:58:35 PM Poll, Harris Interactive for France Télévisions (http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/marine-le-pen/presidentielle-a-trois-jours-du-scrutin-macron-et-le-pen-restent-les-mieux-places-selon-un-sondage-harris-interactive-pour-france-televisions_2153205.html)
Macron regains a good lead in the first round Macron: 25% (+1 since a week ago) Le Pen: 22% (=) Fillon: 19% (-1) Mélenchon: 19% (=) Hamon: 7,5% (-0,5) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou: 1,5% (+0,5) Others are at 1% or under. Second round Macron 66%, Le Pen 34% Macron 68%, Fillon 32% Macron 60%, Mélenchon 40% Mélenchon 60%, Le Pen 40% Mélenchon 58%, Fillon 42% Fillon 58%, Le Pen 42% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on April 20, 2017, 02:02:19 AM I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger. I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree. Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous. Because Russia is as imperialistic as USA? They are just warmongers oppressing people. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 20, 2017, 02:58:57 AM russia is THE global anti-left/anti-progressive/anti-liberal and anti-democratic superpower of our time, and they are spreading their ideology by all possible means.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Bumaye on April 20, 2017, 10:10:25 AM I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger. I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree. Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous. It's the god ol' philosophy: If you wanna oppose Murica support Moscow. I'd love to see European left politicians more often who oppose both, the homophobic oligarch and the narcissistic billionaire. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy on April 20, 2017, 10:12:48 AM I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger. I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree. Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous. It's the god ol' philosophy: If you wanna oppose Murica support Moscow. I'd love to see European left politicians more often who oppose both, the homophobic oligarch and the narcissistic billionaire. The only one who supports Trump is Marine Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 20, 2017, 10:13:06 AM Some leftists tend to like Russia because of the whole "the enemy of your enemy is your friend" fallacy, and they think it's a good obstacle to American and "Western" imperialism. Of course some leftists are just idiots.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Adam Griffin on April 20, 2017, 10:15:30 AM I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger. I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree. Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous. No Russia was communist 50 years ago so put on your dancing shoes (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVMUtSdLH3Y) and show solidarity Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 20, 2017, 10:44:13 AM Map of regions polled by Ipsos. Didnt expect Fillon to be better in Ile de France, thought it would be favorable to Macron, also suprised seeing Macron 4th in PACA
() Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 20, 2017, 10:51:21 AM Some leftists tend to like Russia because of the whole "the enemy of your enemy is your friend" fallacy, and they think it's a good obstacle to American and "Western" imperialism. Of course some leftists are just idiots. Russian imperialism is even worse than Western imperialism. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 20, 2017, 11:02:07 AM Tracking polls
OpinionWay - stable Macron: 23% Le Pen: 22% Fillon: 20% Mélenchon: 19% Hamon: 8% Dupont-Aignan: 4% Poutou: 2% Lassalle and Asselineau: 1% Arthaud and Cheminade: 0% Ifop Macron: 24% (+0.5) Le Pen: 22.5% (=) Fillon: 19.5% (=) Mélenchon: 18.5% (=) Hamon: 7% (-0.5) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou and Lassalle: 1.5% (=) Asselineau: 1% (=) Arthaud: 0.5% (=) Cheminade: 0% (=) Turnout indicator for Ifop still rising, now 73% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: RogueBeaver on April 20, 2017, 11:09:43 AM Politico on what Panzergirl's first 100 days would look like. Spoiler: making Trump's look boring. (http://www.politico.eu/article/president-marine-le-pens-first-100-days-hypothetical-french-election/)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on April 20, 2017, 11:19:47 AM Politico on what Panzergirl's first 100 days would look like. Spoiler: making Trump's look boring. (http://www.politico.eu/article/president-marine-le-pens-first-100-days-hypothetical-french-election/) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Gass3268 on April 20, 2017, 11:24:03 AM Obama called Macron
Quote Edward-Isaac Dovere Verified account @IsaacDovere 4m 4 minutes ago More NEWS - Obama wades into French election, has phone call with Macron, but "not making any formal endorsement," says @KLewis44 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Barnes on April 20, 2017, 11:25:26 AM Tracking polls OpinionWay - stable Macron: 23% Le Pen: 22% Fillon: 20% Mélenchon: 19% Hamon: 8% Dupont-Aignan: 4% Poutou: 2% Lassalle and Asselineau: 1% Arthaud and Cheminade: 0% Ifop Macron: 24% (+0.5) Le Pen: 22.5% (=) Fillon: 19.5% (=) Mélenchon: 18.5% (=) Hamon: 7% (-0.5) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou and Lassalle: 1.5% (=) Asselineau: 1% (=) Arthaud: 0.5% (=) Cheminade: 0% (=) Turnout indicator for Ifop still rising, now 73% Encouraging to see the turnout indicator tipping up; harkens back to Windjammer's earlier point that people finally become engaged as the vote approaches. Personally I think turnout will be in the range of 70 to 75% but should have a stronger increase on 2012 in the second round. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 20, 2017, 11:39:39 AM Map of regions polled by Ipsos. Didnt expect Fillon to be better in Ile de France, thought it would be favorable to Macron, also suprised seeing Macron 4th in PACA () Fascinating, thanks! I'm not surprised about PACA - but would not have expected Mélenchon to be ahead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine. I guess that's what you get if you glue three left wing regions together (but none of which are particularly historicallyy favourable to the far left). Also surprised to see Macron in front of Fillon in Pays-de-la-Loire - is Nantes outvoting the rest of the region? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 20, 2017, 11:41:07 AM Il believe turnout will be as usual, around 80%.
Great news for the Obama phone call, I don't think it will have an impact, but it can't hurt. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 20, 2017, 11:41:07 AM The regional poll from Ipsos also had 2nd round results. There's no map, but Wikipedia has the results in tabular form:
() 1st round: () () Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on April 20, 2017, 11:43:29 AM Who would be Melenchon's PM if he wins?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Babeuf on April 20, 2017, 11:49:00 AM If the polls are right the biggest remaining question IMO is how much of Hamon's soft support leaves him, and whether that could push Melenchon up into the low 20s. Unfortunately, his momentum seems to have stalled out. Alternatively, it could also solidify Macron's position in the top two if they go for him. But based on some previous polls of Hamon supporters they'd split more towards Melenchon if they leave.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 20, 2017, 11:59:30 AM Dominique de Villepin, former PM, most remember for his UN speech against the war in Iraq, will endorse Macron tomorrow.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 20, 2017, 12:07:14 PM Another Harris Poll for LCP
Macron: 24,5% (+0,5 since last week) Le Pen: 21% (-1) Fillon: 20% (=) Mélenchon: 19% (=) Hamon: 7,5% (-0,5) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou: 1,5% (+0,5) Lassalle: 1% Asselineau: 1% (=) Arthaud: 0.5% (+0.5) Cheminade: 0 % (=) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 20, 2017, 01:31:05 PM Macron's strength - and Le Pen's weakness - in the North West of France is very interesting imo. Shows the ways in which Macron is the most 'traditional right' of all the candidates.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 20, 2017, 01:33:07 PM Macron's strength - and Le Pen's weakness - in the North West of France is very interesting imo. Shows the ways in which Macron is the most 'traditional right' of all the candidates. What is the traditional Right for you? More Giscard or more Chirac? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 20, 2017, 01:36:03 PM Macron's strength - and Le Pen's weakness - in the North West of France is very interesting imo. Shows the ways in which Macron is the most 'traditional right' of all the candidates. Or demographic change - the North West has secularised dramatically; and Rennes and Nantes are almost the two most obvious examples of socially liberal, prosperous, bobo cities in the country. Although the region has always been politically moderate, a friendly country for centrists. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 20, 2017, 01:46:55 PM Macron's strength - and Le Pen's weakness - in the North West of France is very interesting imo. Shows the ways in which Macron is the most 'traditional right' of all the candidates. Or demographic change - the North West has secularised dramatically; and Rennes and Nantes are almost the two most obvious examples of socially liberal, prosperous, bobo cities in the country. Although the region has always been politically moderate, a friendly country for centrists. Ah, but if the North West had become like the rest of France then it wouldn't stand out in elections. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 20, 2017, 01:47:39 PM Macron's strength - and Le Pen's weakness - in the North West of France is very interesting imo. Shows the ways in which Macron is the most 'traditional right' of all the candidates. What is the traditional Right for you? More Giscard or more Chirac? It means it likes the Pope and doesn't like Parisians telling them what to do. Which makes Fillon's failure more interesting... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 20, 2017, 02:29:01 PM Macron's strength - and Le Pen's weakness - in the North West of France is very interesting imo. Shows the ways in which Macron is the most 'traditional right' of all the candidates. What is the traditional Right for you? More Giscard or more Chirac? It means it likes the Pope and doesn't like Parisians telling them what to do. Which makes Fillon's failure more interesting... Who do you think they would have voted for in 2012 first round? Also, how do you think they situate in René Remond's categories: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Droites_en_France#Actualisation_de_2005 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 20, 2017, 02:38:37 PM Shooting on the Champs-Elysées, one policeman dead, one suspect killed.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Beet on April 20, 2017, 02:40:43 PM Shooting on the Champs-Elysées, one policeman dead, one suspect killed. It's like the Islamists want the far right to win... oh yes it gives them their holy war. Plus, there are always riots right before a far right winger is up for election, so I expect plenty of those in the next month. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 20, 2017, 02:57:11 PM Police according to BFMTV: the shooting might not be terrorist related but criminal.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 20, 2017, 03:33:47 PM It seems that it was a terrorist attack.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 20, 2017, 03:44:37 PM It seems that it was a terrorist attack. It won't change one single vote. Too little too late Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 20, 2017, 03:45:39 PM It seems that it was a terrorist attack. It won't change one single vote. Too little too late https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affaire_Paul_Voise Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 20, 2017, 03:56:50 PM It's hard to know if this news had any impact in the election, Le Pen gained support in the polls before that.
This last few months we had two terrorist incidents (in the Louvre, in Orly), with no impact on the race, but this one is very close to the vote and is more serious (with now 2 policemen dead). I think that Le Pen could regain some voters who went to Mélenchon, securing her position to the second round, beside that I don't think that it will have a huge impact. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 20, 2017, 04:00:20 PM the too late thing is pointless, there just have been much worse terror attacks in france anyway.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 20, 2017, 04:09:40 PM Fillon cancels his events for the last day of the official campaign.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 20, 2017, 04:12:00 PM Fillon cancels his events for the last day of the official campaign. That probably helps him. The more Fillon campaigns the more people are reminded of how despicable he is Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 20, 2017, 04:16:17 PM Le Pen ends his campaign too.
The others will probably follow. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 20, 2017, 04:45:46 PM BREAKING: Isis claims responsibility for Champs Elysees terror shooting that left one French policeman dead.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 20, 2017, 04:50:12 PM ISIS is such a joke at this point.
no one really believes anything they say anymore. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 20, 2017, 04:59:03 PM I was actually thinking just earlier today that ISIS had been very quiet lately...it's been many months since they've done anything major
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hydera on April 20, 2017, 05:56:41 PM Macron's strength - and Le Pen's weakness - in the North West of France is very interesting imo. Shows the ways in which Macron is the most 'traditional right' of all the candidates. Regardless of what you think of him, Hollande did pretty good in Breton. () Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 20, 2017, 05:58:47 PM But back in the 70s and 80s Brittany was considered a rightwing stronghold that supported Giscard over Mitterrand in. Oth 1974 and 1981
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 20, 2017, 06:08:33 PM And in the 1970s/80s PACA was a left wing stronghold. Things changed, demography changed.
Has has posted about this far more knowledgeably that I ever could, but there is a lot going on a Brittany politics - The Trégor region in the North west of Brittany has been a left wing stronghold for a long time, as have working class cities like Lorient and Brest. The areas around Rennes and Nantes are solidly left wing, but of a more moderate sort, coming from a young, wealthy, well educated demographic. The region as a whole has moved to the left as it has become more secular, in particular the far east of the region, and around the Monts d'Arrée in Finistere, which are traditional catholic strongholds. The inner west (the belt that stretches from Vendée to the Cotentin) is (still) conservative as it has a strong catholic religious tradition. But, as in Brittany, this is a traditionally moderate, centrist ideology, and has also moved left as the region has become more secular. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Bumaye on April 20, 2017, 06:19:09 PM I was actually thinking just earlier today that ISIS had been very quiet lately...it's been many months since they've done anything major In Europe and NA maybe but don't forget that the church bombings in Egypt with 45 casualties was less then two weeks ago. And even when we include the west: The attack at Westminster happened less then a month ago. And when I google for prevented terror attacks I find quite a few recent ones. Vienna, Venedig, Paris, Göttingen, Las Palmas to name a few. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 20, 2017, 07:36:05 PM Of course it's worth noting that in the 70s and 80s Paris itself was a Gaullist stronghold that alwaaus had a RPR mayor and always voted for the right in legislative and presidential elections. Now it's the e act opposite, what is the explanation for that?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2017, 09:40:37 PM Well sh*t.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: adma on April 20, 2017, 09:47:57 PM Of course it's worth noting that in the 70s and 80s Paris itself was a Gaullist stronghold that alwaaus had a RPR mayor and always voted for the right in legislative and presidential elections. Now it's the e act opposite, what is the explanation for that? Unless Fillon in the lead in the Ile-de-France is a last vestige of that dynamic. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hash on April 20, 2017, 10:25:38 PM The region as a whole has moved to the left as it has become more secular, in particular the far east of the region, and around the Monts d'Arrée in Finistere, which are traditional catholic strongholds. I don't bother posting here anymore (too many morons), but the Monts d'Arrée were not a traditional Catholic stronghold - in fact, it has been a stronghold of the radical/revolutionary left since at least the nineteenth century, already being described as such by André Siegfried in 1913. It is a very poor, militantly secular and typically rebellious region which has a long history of radical left politics - the old canton of Huelgoat was held by the PCF between 1945 and 2008, Robert Hue was winning over 30% of the vote in some communes in 1995 (placed first in four) and Mélenchon did very well in 2012 too (not as well as Hue). The Catholic stronghold par excellence of the Finistère is the Léon, which was extremely right-wing until recently (still somewhat visible), and to a lesser extent some of the Montagnes Noires. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 21, 2017, 01:45:58 AM Poll Elabe (before the attack)
Macron: 24% (=) Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5) Fillon: 20% (+0.5) Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5) Hamon: 7% (-1) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5) The others: at or under 1% It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 21, 2017, 02:46:47 AM Poll Elabe (before the attack) Macron: 24% (=) Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5) Fillon: 20% (+0.5) Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5) Hamon: 7% (-1) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5) The others: at or under 1% It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 21, 2017, 02:52:15 AM Poll Elabe (before the attack) Macron: 24% (=) Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5) Fillon: 20% (+0.5) Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5) Hamon: 7% (-1) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5) The others: at or under 1% It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack. A giveaway will be if it's a poll for "Co-Prince of Andorra". :P Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SPQR on April 21, 2017, 02:53:22 AM At this point what really matters IMO is to see:
- if Macron's vote share will hold after yesterday's attack, and in general if he is able to solidify the remaining 25% of soft supporters - how much Le Pen will gain. This attack will also make it harder to judge the polls' reliability on Le Pen's numbers, since any differential with respect to the poll average could be then attributed to the Paris terrorist attack. - if Fillon is able to gain from Dupont-Aignan, Le Pen and even Macron, going over 20% and putting Macron's place in the second round at risk - if Melenchon's supporters who have been attracted to his candidacy only in the last month will stick with him until the end - if Hamon further collapses (as the latest polls seem to suggest), and in that case how much of this support goes to Melenchon and how much to Macron - if the small leftish candidates keep their 1/2%, or if it goes to Melenchon Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 21, 2017, 03:19:37 AM Poll Elabe (before the attack) Macron: 24% (=) Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5) Fillon: 20% (+0.5) Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5) Hamon: 7% (-1) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5) The others: at or under 1% It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack. Yes from tonight midnight to Sunday 8pm. Maybe some polls will be done and will leak, but it's just for one day. (And recently in France, on social media people who support Fillon, Le Pen, Asselineau, Mélenchon, ... make up fake polls, so how to distinct them from real polls?) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on April 21, 2017, 03:33:30 AM Poll Elabe (before the attack) Macron: 24% (=) Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5) Fillon: 20% (+0.5) Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5) Hamon: 7% (-1) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5) The others: at or under 1% It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack. Yes from tonight midnight to Sunday 8pm. Maybe some polls will be done and will leak, but it's just for one day. (And recently in France, on social media people who support Fillon, Le Pen, Asselineau, Mélenchon, ... make up fake polls, so how to distinct them from real polls?) I'm actually curious about these polls. How ridiculous and wild are they? Asselineau winning 10%? Le Pen winning 50%? Mélenchon with 25%? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 21, 2017, 04:08:41 AM For example, on twitter a Mélenchon voter (https://twitter.com/MelenchonNews/status/854388692055715844) said that an Austrian poll done by the BIFIE (a think-tank on education I believe) has Le Pen and Mélenchon in the lead
You have also this fantasy of polls done by the domestic intelligence service (https://twitter.com/FrancoisMacron/status/853321790994743298) (they used the acronyme RG, Renseignements généraux, which doesn't exist since 2008) A classic, the internet poll (https://twitter.com/Marc_Candelier/status/855304481147310080) And this time a Canadian firm (https://twitter.com/FILTERIS_CANADA?lang=fr) has the favors of Fillon's supporters, it mesures the impact of social media. And it's so right because they predicted Trump (which they didn't), the Brexit (which they didn't), and Fillon's victory in the primary (and they also predicted that Sarkozy will be in the runoff) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 21, 2017, 04:57:49 AM The region as a whole has moved to the left as it has become more secular, in particular the far east of the region, and around the Monts d'Arrée in Finistere, which are traditional catholic strongholds. I don't bother posting here anymore (too many morons), but the Monts d'Arrée were not a traditional Catholic stronghold - in fact, it has been a stronghold of the radical/revolutionary left since at least the nineteenth century, already being described as such by André Siegfried in 1913. It is a very poor, militantly secular and typically rebellious region which has a long history of radical left politics - the old canton of Huelgoat was held by the PCF between 1945 and 2008, Robert Hue was winning over 30% of the vote in some communes in 1995 (placed first in four) and Mélenchon did very well in 2012 too (not as well as Hue). The Catholic stronghold par excellence of the Finistère is the Léon, which was extremely right-wing until recently (still somewhat visible), and to a lesser extent some of the Montagnes Noires. Ugh, I knew somewhere in Finistère; I don't know anywhere near as much about Lower Brittany as I would like - but will refrain from asking as I think I am the only person who would care. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Klartext89 on April 21, 2017, 05:04:41 AM I'm still hoping that this Establishment fraud guy without any substance only comes in third. Marine Le Pen vs. Fillion would be a headsup with at least a bit hope for a future for the Grande Nation.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 21, 2017, 05:09:38 AM Opinionway
Macron 23% Le Pen 22% Fillon 21% (+1%) Melenchon 18% (-1%) Hamon 8% According to Politico a swiss newspaper will release a poll tomorrow Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 21, 2017, 05:21:59 AM Ipsos
Macron: 24% (+1) Le Pen: 22% (-0.5) Fillon: 19% (-0.5) Mélenchon: 19% (=) Hamon: 7.5% (-0.5) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou and Lassalle at 1.5% The others are at 1% or under. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 21, 2017, 05:59:42 AM For example, on twitter a Mélenchon voter (https://twitter.com/MelenchonNews/status/854388692055715844) said that an Austrian poll done by the BIFIE (a think-tank on education I believe) has Le Pen and Mélenchon in the lead You have also this fantasy of polls done by the domestic intelligence service (https://twitter.com/FrancoisMacron/status/853321790994743298) (they used the acronyme RG, Renseignements généraux, which doesn't exist since 2008) A classic, the internet poll (https://twitter.com/Marc_Candelier/status/855304481147310080) And this time a Canadian firm (https://twitter.com/FILTERIS_CANADA?lang=fr) has the favors of Fillon's supporters, it mesures the impact of social media. And it's so right because they predicted Trump (which they didn't), the Brexit (which they didn't), and Fillon's victory in the primary (and they also predicted that Sarkozy will be in the runoff) The Bifie is part of the Austrian Ministry of Education. They provide the high school graduation questions for example. They would never poll the French presidential race though. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 21, 2017, 11:11:30 AM Last Ifop update (1/3 post-terror attack)
Macron: 24.5% (+0.5) Le Pen: 22.5 (=) Fillon: 19.5% (=) Mélenchon: 18.5% (=) Hamon: 7% (=) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou: 1.5% (=) The others: at 1% or under. Odoxa, post-terror attack Macron: 24.5% (-0.5, before the attack) Le Pen: 23% (+1) Fillon: 19% (-0.5) Mélenchon: 19% (-0.5) Hamon: 7.5% (+1.5) Dupont-Aignan: 4.5% (+0.5) The others at 1% or under. No impact so far after the terror attack Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 21, 2017, 11:55:24 AM I was actually thinking just earlier today that ISIS had been very quiet lately...it's been many months since they've done anything major In Europe and NA maybe but don't forget that the church bombings in Egypt with 45 casualties was less then two weeks ago. And even when we include the west: The attack at Westminster happened less then a month ago. And when I google for prevented terror attacks I find quite a few recent ones. Vienna, Venedig, Paris, Göttingen, Las Palmas to name a few. WTF!? What happened there? I don't remember any terrorist attacks in Las Palmas, not just in recient history, but ever. Edit: Oh, prevented terror attacks. Then yeah, the police has arrested a couple of terrorists here. The Guardia Civil is doing a suprsisngly good job protecting Spain from terrorism (I guess decades of training with ETA help) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Mike88 on April 21, 2017, 12:02:17 PM I was actually thinking just earlier today that ISIS had been very quiet lately...it's been many months since they've done anything major In Europe and NA maybe but don't forget that the church bombings in Egypt with 45 casualties was less then two weeks ago. And even when we include the west: The attack at Westminster happened less then a month ago. And when I google for prevented terror attacks I find quite a few recent ones. Vienna, Venedig, Paris, Göttingen, Las Palmas to name a few. WTF!? What happened there? I don't remember any terrorist attacks in Las Palmas, not just in recient history, but ever. According to Wikipedia they bombed the offices of the South African Airways in 1977 and in March 27 1977 they bombed a flower shop in Las Palmas airport that made autorities close the airport and indirectly provoked the Los Rodeos airplane accident. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 21, 2017, 12:11:35 PM I was actually thinking just earlier today that ISIS had been very quiet lately...it's been many months since they've done anything major In Europe and NA maybe but don't forget that the church bombings in Egypt with 45 casualties was less then two weeks ago. And even when we include the west: The attack at Westminster happened less then a month ago. And when I google for prevented terror attacks I find quite a few recent ones. Vienna, Venedig, Paris, Göttingen, Las Palmas to name a few. WTF!? What happened there? I don't remember any terrorist attacks in Las Palmas, not just in recient history, but ever. According to Wikipedia they bombed the offices of the South African Airways in 1977 and in March 27 1977 they bombed a flower shop in Las Palmas airport that made autorities close the airport and indirectly provoked the Los Rodeos airplane accident. Oh, yeah, forgot about that, but they only ever killed one guy directly. They were involved in that huge plane accident though. But it was about prevented attacks which have actually happened Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on April 21, 2017, 12:22:12 PM Last Ifop update (1/3 post-terror attack) Macron: 24.5% (+0.5) Le Pen: 22.5 (=) Fillon: 19.5% (=) Mélenchon: 18.5% (=) Hamon: 7% (=) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou: 1.5% (=) The others: at 1% or under. Odoxa, post-terror attack Macron: 24.5% (-0.5, before the attack) Le Pen: 23% (+1) Fillon: 19% (-0.5) Mélenchon: 19% (-0.5) Hamon: 7.5% (+1.5) Dupont-Aignan: 4.5% (+0.5) The others at 1% or under. No impact so far after the terror attack If Dupont-Aignan somehow passes Hamon, it would be hilarious. Hilarious and sad. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Gass3268 on April 21, 2017, 01:07:59 PM Can't imagine Trump is that popular in France:
Quote Abby D. Phillip Verified account @abbydphillip Follow More Trump on Le Pen per AP: She's the only candidate that is "strongest on borders, and she's the strongest on what's been going on in France." Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 21, 2017, 01:35:16 PM ^^ "What's going on" is Trump's code word for MUZLIMS!!, right??
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SPQR on April 21, 2017, 01:37:13 PM Last Ifop update (1/3 post-terror attack) Macron: 24.5% (+0.5) Le Pen: 22.5 (=) Fillon: 19.5% (=) Mélenchon: 18.5% (=) Hamon: 7% (=) Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=) Poutou: 1.5% (=) The others: at 1% or under. Odoxa, post-terror attack Macron: 24.5% (-0.5, before the attack) Le Pen: 23% (+1) Fillon: 19% (-0.5) Mélenchon: 19% (-0.5) Hamon: 7.5% (+1.5) Dupont-Aignan: 4.5% (+0.5) The others at 1% or under. No impact so far after the terror attack If Dupont-Aignan somehow passes Hamon, it would be hilarious. Hilarious and sad. I'm way more worried about him collapsing in favour of Fillon. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: TheSaint250 on April 21, 2017, 01:46:56 PM ^^ "What's going on" is Trump's code word for MUZLIMS!!, right?? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Middle-aged Europe on April 21, 2017, 01:57:03 PM ^^ "What's going on" is Trump's code word for MUZLIMS!!, right?? Short of resigning there isn't a thing in the world which Trump could do to "float my boat". Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 21, 2017, 03:28:14 PM So each institute has released its final poll.
Macron is between 23% and 24.5% Le Pen is between 21% and 23% Fillon is between 18.5% and 21% Mélenchon is between 18.5% and 19.5% Hamon is between 7.5% and 8% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 21, 2017, 03:44:49 PM https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-french-election-is-way-too-close-to-call/
The French Election Is Way Too Close To Call 1 Error is about 3%, probably 5-9 2 Multi-way races are the most error-prone 3 Pollsters may be herding 4 Run-off will probably be boring. Conclusion: We don't really know who'll get to the run-off, but once we know, we'll probably know the winner. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: The Other Castro on April 21, 2017, 03:48:53 PM What time should exit polls be expected again?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 21, 2017, 03:52:29 PM 8pm. Technically not an exit poll, but a projection based on actual vote counts at a selection of the polling stations (outside big cities) that close at 7pm.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: I Won - Get Over It on April 21, 2017, 03:53:12 PM What time should exit polls be expected again? http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/21/france-election-le-pen-macron-vote.html Quote Polling stations are due to close between 7 p.m. Paris time (8 p.m. for the big cities) on Sunday. Preliminary results are expected around 9 p.m. Paris time, slightly later than usual as the close race is expected to complicate and delay the results. In recent history, France has never had a race that was too close to call, with the two leading candidates usually being pretty clear. "This is a four way race with the potential for the numbers to be quite close to one another. In the previous elections exit polls have over/under estimated the candidates by up to +-2 percent either way. They correct themselves as the night progresses and typically by 9:30 pm (London time) they are more confident as to the results," Nomura noted in a research note on Thursday. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: The Other Castro on April 21, 2017, 03:56:13 PM Oh nice, then I will definitely be making a croque monsieur for lunch on Sunday.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 21, 2017, 04:08:16 PM What time should exit polls be expected again? There are two uncertainties: -Will the pollsters have enough time to collect the result and calculate their projections? This year they will have only one hour, not two. I read that to be sure to have a projection at 8pm the pollsters will double their selected polling stations where they collect the first results. At 8pm it will be also the first projection while in the past it was the second or third actualization, it might be less accurate. -We always had in France a clear picture of the result at 8pm, this time it could be different, the media are preparing for a "too close to call" situation, so instead of 2 faces at 8pm we could see one (if only one candidate is sure to be in the runoff), or three, or four. Also the pollsters have confirmed to the national commission of polls that they will not conduct any exit poll Sunday, so there is absolutely no way to have any idea of the result before 8pm. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on April 21, 2017, 04:38:27 PM What time should exit polls be expected again? There are two uncertainties: -Will the pollsters have enough time to collect the result and calculate their projections? This year they will have only one hour, not two. I read that to be sure to have a projection at 8pm the pollsters will double their selected polling stations where they collect the first results. At 8pm it will be also the first projection while in the past it was the second or third actualization, it might be less accurate. -We always had in France a clear picture of the result at 8pm, this time it could be different, the media are preparing for a "too close to call" situation, so instead of 2 faces at 8pm we could see one (if only one candidate is sure to be in the runoff), or three, or four. Also the pollsters have confirmed to the national commission of polls that they will not conduct any exit poll Sunday, so there is absolutely no way to have any idea of the result before 8pm. In 2002, was it considered certain at 8pm that Jospin was out of the runoff and Le Pen in? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 21, 2017, 04:42:24 PM bva poll (thursday and friday)
Macron 23 (-1) Marine 23 (=) Melanchon 19,5 (+0,5) Fillon 19 (=) Hamon 8 (-0,5) NDA 4 (+0,5) 6 % did not express 29% dit not express or can change their vote 86% (=) of Le Pen voters are sure 85 (+4) of Fillon voters 73 (-1) of Macron voters 70 (-5) of Melanchon voters 62 (+4) of Hamon voters Odoxa poll (60 % of the poll after the terrorist attack) Macron 24,5 Marine 23 (+1) Fillon 19 Melanchon 19 Hamon 7,5 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 21, 2017, 04:43:39 PM What time should exit polls be expected again? There are two uncertainties: -Will the pollsters have enough time to collect the result and calculate their projections? This year they will have only one hour, not two. I read that to be sure to have a projection at 8pm the pollsters will double their selected polling stations where they collect the first results. At 8pm it will be also the first projection while in the past it was the second or third actualization, it might be less accurate. -We always had in France a clear picture of the result at 8pm, this time it could be different, the media are preparing for a "too close to call" situation, so instead of 2 faces at 8pm we could see one (if only one candidate is sure to be in the runoff), or three, or four. Also the pollsters have confirmed to the national commission of polls that they will not conduct any exit poll Sunday, so there is absolutely no way to have any idea of the result before 8pm. In 2002, was it considered certain at 8pm that Jospin was out of the runoff and Le Pen in? yes Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 21, 2017, 04:56:16 PM The Odoxa poll is entirely after the terror attack. The poll done before the attack hasn't be released
Unbelievable: Fillon might give back the money perceived by his wife and children if he is elected (http://www.slate.fr/story/144278/fillon-pret-rendre-argent) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2017, 02:46:34 AM Here's a map of the 2015 regionals by town (I guess rural France will deliver strongly for Le Pen tomorrow and the map could be even further dark-blue):
() Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: mvd10 on April 22, 2017, 05:04:34 AM So, to me the question is if France's voting pattern will mirror the more moderate Dutch parliamentary one or the more extremist Austrian one from the 1st round of the Presidential election ... Austria's 1st round was held at the height of the migrant inflow and the ongoing security debate after the Cologne rapes. The far-right candidate polled 22-24% and got 35% in the end. On the other hand, you have the Dutch vote in which voters opted for the centrist parties rather than the far-right, despite Turkish agitation and violence on the street a couple days before. The far-right gained a bit, but was mostly sidelined. I think France will be somewhere in the middle tomorrow, Le Pen outperforming her polls by 5% at the most. She also has some far-left competition with Melenchon when it comes to workers votes and Fillon is much stronger than Khol (ÖVP) ever was, despite all his scandals. So she'll never hit 30% or the 35% of Hofer. France doesn't have the migration flood and immigrant rapes etc. that Austria experienced, but has to deal with constant terror threats and still high unemployment and suffers from the same rural disintegration in many parts like Austrian small towns do, which could boost Le Pen. I'm just not sure though if Melenchon's support is real this time or overblown just like in 2012, giving the additional points to Le Pen instead. The PVV didn't really underperform the polls in the Dutch election though. They were polling at something like 22 seats and they got 20 seats. The main surprise was the VVD (centre-right party) massively overperforming the polls, but the reason for that was the row with Turkey. I'm not sure whether the terror attack in France can be a game changer like the row with Turkey was in the Netherlands. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 22, 2017, 05:10:32 AM So the first voters have started voting... in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon. It's on, fellows, for better or worst.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2017, 05:22:07 AM If Dupont-Aignan somehow passes Hamon, it would be hilarious. Hilarious and sad. I wouldn't be particularly shocked to see Hamon doing worse than Gaston Defferre in 1969, which was a nail to SFIO's coffin. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2017, 05:23:29 AM So the first voters have started voting... in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon. It's on, fellows, for better or worst. 5.000 eligible voters. BOOM ! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2017, 05:33:10 AM Austrian Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) endorses Macron ... and not Hamon:
http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5205246/Kern_Ich-bin-kein-Masochist Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 22, 2017, 05:56:10 AM Austrian Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) endorses Macron ... and not Hamon: http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5205246/Kern_Ich-bin-kein-Masochist For all what's worth Pablo Iglesias here endorsed Melenchon, but that was totally expected. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 22, 2017, 06:51:01 AM I'm very interested in seeing how Guyane votes. Probably a minuscule turn out
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 22, 2017, 08:25:15 AM last poll (the newspaper "tribune de genève" doesn't say wich polling firm is). The majority of polled after the terrorist attack.
Macron 24 (-0,5) Marine 23 (+1) Fillon 20,5 (+1) Melanchon (-0,5) Hamon 7 NDA 3 Asselineau 1 Lasalle 1 the pollster say that there is a (minor) boost for Marine and Fillon due to the terrorist attack. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Polkergeist on April 22, 2017, 08:30:33 AM Is there any chance of a further squeeze on Hamon and/or Dupont-Aignan voters towards the four front runners?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2017, 08:35:42 AM last poll (the newspaper "tribune de genève" doesn't say wich polling firm is). The majority of polled after the terrorist attack. Macron 24 (-0,5) Marine 23 (+1) Fillon 20,5 (+1) Melanchon (-0,5) Hamon 7 NDA 3 Asselineau 1 Lasalle 1 the pollster say that there is a (minor) boost for Marine and Fillon due to the terrorist attack. The full boost will only materialize tomorrow I guess. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Donnie on April 22, 2017, 08:50:37 AM Final prediction:
25% Le Pen 23% Fillon ----------------- 23% Macron 17% Melenchon 7% Hamon 3% Dupont 2% Others Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 22, 2017, 08:51:45 AM Is there any chance of a further squeeze on Hamon and/or Dupont-Aignan voters towards the four front runners? it's a possibility... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2017, 08:59:44 AM I think the Macron and Melenchon vote from the polls will not fully materialize tomorrow, much like the VdB and Griss* votes did not. Macron's 2-3% will likely go to Fillon in the end and Melenchon's 3-4% will go to Le Pen. As well as 1% from Dupont.
*I voted for centrist Griss in round one here, but I knew that it wouldn't be enough for her to reach the runoff. I'd also vote for Macron, but I don't think he might get there after all. A month or 2 ago I thought that Le Pen vs. Fillon would never happen, but tomorrow we might just get that ... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 22, 2017, 09:46:07 AM Turnout at noon in St-Pierre et Miquelon
25.4% (+1.25 compared to 2012) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Velasco on April 22, 2017, 10:00:37 AM Melenchon's 3-4% will go to Le Pen. Van der Bellen the Frenchie will lose 3-4% to French Hofer. Isn't it? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: rob in cal on April 22, 2017, 10:04:00 AM Assuming Le Pen is one of the finalists, the battle for the other spot, and thus very likely becoming the next President, reminds me of the 1932 Democratic Convention in Chicago. Whoever came out of that as the nominee was considered a strong favorite to defeat Hoover and thus be the next President.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 22, 2017, 10:08:41 AM if macron fails, it is not cause of the terror attack, but cause fillon's voters were shy to start with and macron's voters didn't care enough.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Beezer on April 22, 2017, 10:20:15 AM The greatest comeback?
() Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: DL on April 22, 2017, 10:27:34 AM Message to people with theories about "shy voters"... virtually all of the polls in France were conducted online. While it's possible that due to "social desirably bias" could make people shy about telling a live interviewer that they are voting LePen or Fillon, but there is no reason for anyone to be shy or self-conscious about their vote when completing an online survey with no human interaction
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2017, 10:28:48 AM Austrian Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) endorses Macron ... and not Hamon: http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5205246/Kern_Ich-bin-kein-Masochist For all what's worth Pablo Iglesias here endorsed Melenchon, but that was totally expected. For Kern it's probably "anybody but Le Pen" tan anything else. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 22, 2017, 10:46:26 AM Message to people with theories about "shy voters"... virtually all of the polls in France were conducted online. While it's possible that due to "social desirably bias" could make people shy about telling a live interviewer that they are voting LePen or Fillon, but there is no reason for anyone to be shy or self-conscious about their vote when completing an online survey with no human interaction The problem is less "shy voters" and more the potential that pollsters have got their samples wrong. Online panels in particular tend to be made up of people who are more interested in politics to begin with, and leave out the less interested/more abstentionist types; many of these will be less educated or "ouvriers", who are both strong Le Pen demographics. Someone posted earlier that French pollster sample by quota, which might mitigate this somewhat, who knows? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 22, 2017, 10:50:50 AM in fact le pen's vote is totally uninteresting.
fillon's and macron's voters are the real deal. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 22, 2017, 10:51:41 AM Message to people with theories about "shy voters"... virtually all of the polls in France were conducted online. While it's possible that due to "social desirably bias" could make people shy about telling a live interviewer that they are voting LePen or Fillon, but there is no reason for anyone to be shy or self-conscious about their vote when completing an online survey with no human interaction The problem is less "shy voters" and more the potential that pollsters have got their samples wrong. Online panels in particular tend to be made up of people who are more interested in politics to begin with, and leave out the less interested/more abstentionist types; many of these will be less educated or "ouvriers", who are both strong Le Pen demographics. Someone posted earlier that French pollster sample by quota, which might mitigate this somewhat, who knows? Agreed. But would not the fact that FN was under-polled in 2012 had pollsters adjust their weights ? After 2002 when FN was underestimated it seems pollsters adjusted their weights and as a result in 2007 FN over-polled so another adjustment was made and as a result FN was under-polled in 2012. Would not 2017 then perhaps, using this pattern, have FN over-polled. I tend to think that the Le Pen surge since 2012 has changed the structure of who votes FN so there is a chance of under-poll but overreaction to FN under-polling in 2012 most likely washed this out to where Le Pen will most likely perform where she is polling right now. I suspect it is Fillon that is under-polling. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 22, 2017, 10:59:48 AM Turnout at noon in Guyana: 18.93% (-1.71 compared to 2012)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 22, 2017, 11:01:16 AM Message to people with theories about "shy voters"... virtually all of the polls in France were conducted online. While it's possible that due to "social desirably bias" could make people shy about telling a live interviewer that they are voting LePen or Fillon, but there is no reason for anyone to be shy or self-conscious about their vote when completing an online survey with no human interaction The problem is less "shy voters" and more the potential that pollsters have got their samples wrong. Online panels in particular tend to be made up of people who are more interested in politics to begin with, and leave out the less interested/more abstentionist types; many of these will be less educated or "ouvriers", who are both strong Le Pen demographics. Someone posted earlier that French pollster sample by quota, which might mitigate this somewhat, who knows? Agreed. But would not the fact that FN was under-polled in 2012 had pollsters adjust their weights ? After 2002 when FN was underestimated it seems pollsters adjusted their weights and as a result in 2007 FN over-polled so another adjustment was made and as a result FN was under-polled in 2012. Would not 2017 then perhaps, using this pattern, have FN over-polled. I tend to think that the Le Pen surge since 2012 has changed the structure of who votes FN so there is a chance of under-poll but overreaction to FN under-polling in 2012 most likely washed this out to where Le Pen will most likely perform where she is polling right now. I suspect it is Fillon that is under-polling. Oh yeah, totally agree that if anyone is likely to be underpolling it is most probably Fillon - he has an older, less "tech savvy" demographic, and I suspect that there will be quite a few people saying that they wouldn't vote for him in light of the corruption scandals who will return to the fold in the polling both. For Le Pen, the 2015 regionals polling was pretty accurate for her; and I'm not sure the breakdown of who votes FN has changed overly dramatically in recent years (even Le Pen senior was getting his biggest scores from working class voters rural-left behind areas in his later years), I guess the big difference is the rise of the FN in the West. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 22, 2017, 11:26:41 AM Turnout at noon
Guadeloupe: 17.65% (+0.82) Martinique: 13.93% (-4.3) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: An American Tail: Fubart Goes West on April 22, 2017, 01:11:32 PM Not sure why, but I definitely thought the election was today. Bummer. 24 more hours.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Umengus on April 22, 2017, 01:18:11 PM I think the Macron and Melenchon vote from the polls will not fully materialize tomorrow, much like the VdB and Griss* votes did not. Macron's 2-3% will likely go to Fillon in the end and Melenchon's 3-4% will go to Le Pen. As well as 1% from Dupont. *I voted for centrist Griss in round one here, but I knew that it wouldn't be enough for her to reach the runoff. I'd also vote for Macron, but I don't think he might get there after all. A month or 2 ago I thought that Le Pen vs. Fillon would never happen, but tomorrow we might just get that ... I bet again on macron. His voters are Bayrou-Hollande 2012 and it was 37 % of the voters. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Former President tack50 on April 22, 2017, 01:45:36 PM Turnout at noon Guadeloupe: 17.65% (+0.82) Martinique: 13.93% (-4.3) Damn, 14% turnout! Is turnout in the outermost regions representative of the mainland? Because if so, Fillon is probably very happy. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zanas on April 22, 2017, 01:52:53 PM Turnout overseas is typically 20 points lower than mainland for presidential elections, except for a few special cases. But that's at the end of the day. Some mainland departments get 14% at noon as well.
On a general basis, don't read pretty much anything into any figures from the overseas zones. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on April 22, 2017, 03:22:58 PM What time do we get results / start getting results?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 22, 2017, 03:31:59 PM Results from the overseas region will probably leak a few hours after the vote there.
Results from Metropolitan France, tomorrow 8pm local. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hydera on April 22, 2017, 03:34:18 PM ()
2/3rds of Macron voters voted for Hollande or greens+melenchon in 2012. The remaining third are split between those that voted for Bayrou and Sarkozy(mainly the LR voters that would of voted for Fillon but was disgusted over penelopegate). Only 50% of Bayrou voters in 2012 are voting for Macron but that should not be a surprise since Bayrou voters in 2012 split evenly between Hollande and Sarkozy. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zinneke on April 22, 2017, 04:08:20 PM () 2/3rds of Macron voters voted for Hollande or greens+melenchon in 2012. The remaining third are split between those that voted for Bayrou and Sarkozy(mainly the LR voters that would of voted for Fillon but was disgusted over penelopegate). Only 50% of Bayrou voters in 2012 are voting for Macron but that should not be a surprise since Bayrou voters in 2012 split evenly between Hollande and Sarkozy. I'd love to meet a 2012 Le Pen voter who will cast their ballot for Benoît Hamon on Sunday. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on April 22, 2017, 04:25:34 PM Melenchon is the best serious candidate for major office in a major country this decade. So infuriating he won't even make it to the 2nd round.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 22, 2017, 05:22:23 PM La Libre (Belgium) published a poll today, which is quite suprisingly. Dont know how trustful it is
Le Pen 26% FIllon 22% Macron 21% Melenchon 17% http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/exclusif-presidentielle-francaise-decouvrez-le-dernier-sondage-a-quelques-heures-du-scrutin-58f9dacccd70e80512fbd23c Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Classic Conservative on April 22, 2017, 05:29:25 PM La Libre (Belgium) published a poll today, which is quite suprisingly. Dont know how trustful it is Le Pen 26% FIllon 22% Macron 21% Melenchon 17% http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/exclusif-presidentielle-francaise-decouvrez-le-dernier-sondage-a-quelques-heures-du-scrutin-58f9dacccd70e80512fbd23c Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 22, 2017, 05:37:29 PM I do not know anything about this Filteris pollster
() But they have it at FIllon 22.09% Le Pen 21.75% Melenchon 21.11% Macron 19.95% Hamon 7.04% Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lord Halifax on April 22, 2017, 05:42:41 PM I do not know anything about this Filteris pollster () But they have it at FIllon 22.09% Le Pen 21.75% Melenchon 21.11% Macron 19.95% Hamon 7.04% That is "buzz and perceptions", not vote share. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Chunk Yogurt for President! on April 22, 2017, 05:44:15 PM So, when will the polls close tomorrow?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 22, 2017, 05:45:34 PM That is "buzz and perceptions", not vote share. Thanks for clarifying. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: parochial boy on April 22, 2017, 05:47:02 PM La Libre (Belgium) published a poll today, which is quite suprisingly. Dont know how trustful it is Le Pen 26% FIllon 22% Macron 21% Melenchon 17% http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/exclusif-presidentielle-francaise-decouvrez-le-dernier-sondage-a-quelques-heures-du-scrutin-58f9dacccd70e80512fbd23c It's an internal poll for one of the candidates, so take with a massive pinch of salt Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hydera on April 22, 2017, 05:51:48 PM ffs i swear if its Le Pen and Fillon.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Lachi on April 22, 2017, 05:54:01 PM Final prediction: 25% Le Pen 23% Fillon ----------------- 23% Macron 17% Melenchon 7% Hamon 3% Dupont 2% Others Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Zuza on April 22, 2017, 06:35:22 PM Surprisingly only very few 2012 Melenchon voters support Le Pen now, while a significant share of 2012 Hollande voters do this. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2017, 07:33:53 PM I voted. :)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Kringla Heimsins on April 22, 2017, 08:19:45 PM I do not know anything about this Filteris pollster () But they have it at FIllon 22.09% Le Pen 21.75% Melenchon 21.11% Macron 19.95% Hamon 7.04% This is how much the candidates are talked about on social medias. Every iteration of "Fillon, give the money back!", which has become an actual meme online in the form of "Rends l'argent", is credited to Fillon. On the other hand, his voters are usually older than the general population, and are thus less active online. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Poirot on April 22, 2017, 08:22:33 PM There has been a long line to reach the voting place in Montreal all day. Voters have said they waited 2 hours. At the close there was still a long line and those people will still be able to vote.
57000 people are registered to vote in Montreal (vs 44000 in 2012). The news story mentions people wanting to vote against the extremist candidates. Video of the line during the day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SblCuZVOk8s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SblCuZVOk8s) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 22, 2017, 08:26:32 PM I do not know anything about this Filteris pollster () But they have it at FIllon 22.09% Le Pen 21.75% Melenchon 21.11% Macron 19.95% Hamon 7.04% This is how much the candidates are talked about on social medias. Every iteration of "Fillon, give the money back!", which has become an actual meme online in the form of "Rends l'argent", is credited to Fillon. On the other hand, his voters are usually older than the general population, and are thus less active online. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Vosem on April 22, 2017, 09:52:13 PM You were for Hamon, yes? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2017, 09:57:53 PM You were for Hamon, yes? Bien sûr. ;) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: rob in cal on April 22, 2017, 10:11:56 PM Le Pen has reached about 36% chance to win the presidency on predictit, which really seems ridiculous. I thought I was so smart betting against her at 28%, thinking the markets weren't going higher than that. Should have waited. Macron the favorite in the high 50's. I put a few dollars on him to win, but I've got about 150 dollars on Le Pen to not win the presidency at that 28% level (meaning I profit about 42 dollars if she loses either tomorrow or in two weeks.)
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Devout Centrist on April 22, 2017, 10:19:46 PM Le Pen has reached about 36% chance to win the presidency on predictit, which really seems ridiculous. I thought I was so smart betting against her at 28%, thinking the markets weren't going higher than that. Should have waited. Macron the favorite in the high 50's. I put a few dollars on him to win, but I've got about 150 dollars on Le Pen to not win the presidency at that 28% level (meaning I profit about 42 dollars if she loses either tomorrow or in two weeks.) Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Intell on April 22, 2017, 10:34:49 PM You were for Hamon, yes? Bien sûr. ;) How do you think your area will go? Also how does Ivry-sur-Seine go, I have family that live there? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 22, 2017, 10:46:33 PM La Libre (Belgium) published a poll today, which is quite suprisingly. Dont know how trustful it is Le Pen 26% FIllon 22% Macron 21% Melenchon 17% http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/exclusif-presidentielle-francaise-decouvrez-le-dernier-sondage-a-quelques-heures-du-scrutin-58f9dacccd70e80512fbd23c Nothing is more simple than to call a Belgian newspaper when French media must remain quiet and tell them: "I have a news for you". In the past elections they published completely false informations (e.g. in 2012 they published an exit poll at 5pm which showed Hollande at 55% despite the fact that French pollsters repeated again and again that no exit poll was conducted). Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tintrlvr on April 22, 2017, 10:46:52 PM You were for Hamon, yes? Bien sûr. ;) How do you think your area will go? Also how does Ivry-sur-Seine go, I have family that live there? Ivry has a strong PCF tradition (has only had communist mayors since the 1920s). It will vote for Melenchon with Macron second. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2017, 11:07:34 PM You were for Hamon, yes? Bien sûr. ;) How do you think your area will go? French expats in Los Angeles? Probably Fillon, though FBM should do well there. The city my family lives in is a typical middle-class West Parisian suburb, so Fillon will easily win there. FN does better there than in the neighboring towns, but still worse than nationally. My mom's hometown in Savoy will probably go for Panzergirl. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 23, 2017, 01:47:37 AM I voted!
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Donnie on April 23, 2017, 02:34:02 AM Final prediction: 25% Le Pen 23% Fillon ----------------- 23% Macron 17% Melenchon 7% Hamon 3% Dupont 2% Others Looks like a 1-2% last minute shift of centrist voters from Macron to Fillon (Paris attack??). A good informed friend of mine from France (who supports and campaings for Macron btw) is confirming me that this is the trend since yesterday. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Proudconnh on April 23, 2017, 02:54:32 AM Fillon strikes me as a sort of French Richard Nixon.
This whole election is like the US in 1968 An unpopular left wing incumbent who didn't run An inspiring young liberal is performing well The official left wing candidate is mired in backlash from the base A far right winger playing off pent up anger And of course the center right candidate who has a history of ethics issues I swear I'm not crazy. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 23, 2017, 04:28:31 AM In my polling station turnout seems to be important, 30% at 11.30 am, in a city with higher abstention rate than the national average
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 23, 2017, 05:03:46 AM Turnout at noon nationwide: 28,54% (+0.25)
And in my polling station: 35.8%. In my city in 2012 turnout was 3pts lower than the national rate Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on April 23, 2017, 05:11:09 AM Turnout at noon nationwide: 28,54% (+0.25) And in my polling station: 35.8%. In my city in 2012 turnout was 3pts lower than the national rate Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Sorenroy on April 23, 2017, 05:13:21 AM What's a good site to watch the live results come in on? Politico seems to have a live tracker, but the map doesn't seem all that great. Any suggestions?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 23, 2017, 05:23:20 AM Turnout at noon nationwide: 28,54% (+0.25) And in my polling station: 35.8%. In my city in 2012 turnout was 3pts lower than the national rate In a FN / Left area. Turnout in Sarthe (Fillon's home département) is down 5 points. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: afleitch on April 23, 2017, 05:27:53 AM A Le Pen - Fillon runoff. And in 2022 the French left will still run about 5 candidates. Prove me wrong :( Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hnv1 on April 23, 2017, 06:02:30 AM High turnout in Israel as well, mostly for Fillon and the rest for Macron
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Velasco on April 23, 2017, 06:02:47 AM Turnout at noon nationwide: 28,54% (+0.25) And in my polling station: 35.8%. In my city in 2012 turnout was 3pts lower than the national rate In a FN / Left area. Is turnout going up in similar areas across France? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Classic Conservative on April 23, 2017, 06:12:50 AM Val-d'Isère is at 44% turnout at 12:30
https://mobile.twitter.com/RomuDansLaRadio/status/856102519961001985 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Classic Conservative on April 23, 2017, 06:15:14 AM Pas de Calais is at 23.3% turnout
Val-de-marne is at 21.2% turnout Val-d'Oise is at 20.6% turnout https://mobile.twitter.com/PerezMataCFC/status/856102456845119488/photo/1 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jeron on April 23, 2017, 06:25:49 AM Oise turnout down 26.3% compared to 33.8% in 2012 when Sarkozy got the largest share of the vote with Le Pen second and Hollande third.
Vosges: 33.9% (2012: 28.5) 1. Sarkozy 2. Hollande 3. Le Pen Moselle: 26.6% (2012: 21.5) 1. Sarkozy 2. Le Pen 3. Hollande Meurthe et Moselle: 24.9% (28.4) 1. Hollande 2. Sarkozy 3. Le Pen Gers 38.5% 1. Hollande 2. Sarkozy 3. Le Pen Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tirnam on April 23, 2017, 06:34:54 AM Turnout in Sablé-sur-Sarthe (Fillon's home town) is down 10 points
In Paris turnout is up 2.5 points Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Classic Conservative on April 23, 2017, 06:43:07 AM I've seen some "results" for Guadalupe, Martinique and Guyane on the internet. How well was Melenchon supposed to do in these areas?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on April 23, 2017, 06:45:02 AM I've seen some results for Guadalupe, Martinique and Guyane on the internet. How well was Melenchon supposed to do in these areas? Those were probably fake. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2017, 06:47:49 AM The turnout figures are all over the board.
The Interior Ministry has them for all departments and some show an increase in Fillon areas, some are down. The same for PS and FN areas ... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Classic Conservative on April 23, 2017, 06:51:37 AM The turnout figures are all over the board. The Interior Ministry has them for all departments and some show an increase in Fillon areas, some are down. The same for PS and FN areas ... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jeron on April 23, 2017, 06:56:32 AM I've seen some results for Guadalupe, Martinique and Guyane on the internet. How well was Melenchon supposed to do in these areas? Those were probably fake. RTBF has them on its site and apparently Melenchon has done very well overseas. Macron second overall, Le Pen third and Fillon fourth. https://www.rtbf.be/info/monde/detail_presidentielle-francaise-la-participation-a-midi-direct?id=9587638&utm_source=rtbfinfo&utm_campaign=social_share&utm_medium=twitter_share Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2017, 06:57:07 AM The turnout figures are all over the board. The Interior Ministry has them for all departments and some show an increase in Fillon areas, some are down. The same for PS and FN areas ... Here's the link for all departments at 12:00 for today (3 PDF files): http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Actualites/L-actu-du-Ministere/Election-du-president-de-la-Republique-2017-Premier-tour-Taux-de-participation-a-12h And here's the link for 2012 (the relevant figure is on the left: Tour 1 - 12h (%): http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Presse/Dossiers-de-presse/Dossier-de-presse-de-l-election-du-President-de-la-Republique-2017/Annexe-n-9-les-taux-de-participation-au-scrutin-de-l-election-presidentielle-de-2012-par-departement-par-ordre-decroissant or this: http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Presse/Dossiers-de-presse/Dossier-de-presse-de-l-election-du-President-de-la-Republique-2017/Annexe-n-6-les-taux-de-participation-au-scrutin-de-l-election-presidentielle-de-2002-2007-et-2012-par-departement-en-metropole Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2017, 07:20:18 AM I've seen some results for Guadalupe, Martinique and Guyane on the internet. How well was Melenchon supposed to do in these areas? Those were probably fake. RTBF has them on its site and apparently Melenchon has done very well overseas. Macron second overall, Le Pen third and Fillon fourth. https://www.rtbf.be/info/monde/detail_presidentielle-francaise-la-participation-a-midi-direct?id=9587638&utm_source=rtbfinfo&utm_campaign=social_share&utm_medium=twitter_share If these results are accurate and mainland France votes like them, it seems Le Pen and Melenchon are heading for big wins today (Le Pen doubling of tripling her results overseas compared with 2012, while Melenchon gets a good chunk of former Hollande voters, Macron as well). Fillon and Hamon are collapsing. But that's a big "if" ... Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: peterthlee on April 23, 2017, 07:29:09 AM Here in Hong Kong, diaspora are engaged to exercise their electoral rights. Queues were observed to stretch from inside to lobby in the French Consulate.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: alomas on April 23, 2017, 07:33:15 AM It's completely ridiculous that communist candidate Melenchon has so much support. France is no longer a great country it once was and Hollande's term was a disaster but that guy would take France into an even worst level.
Generally speaking no one of these four candidates come to me as really good. Three of them are pro-Putin (and this is by no means the only bad thing about them), while the last one seem to be content with current situation: struggling economy and terrorist danger. If I had to chose I would pick Fillon as the best of the worst but I am no fan of him. I predict Le Pen and Fillon/Macron to go through and one of the last two to win in May. However it is a pretty open race between the four today. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 23, 2017, 07:36:21 AM Just voted in The Hague, lines are not as long as in some other major cities abroad. Had to wait for45 min
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Classic Conservative on April 23, 2017, 07:37:44 AM Just voted in The Hague, lines are not as long as in some other major cities abroad. Had to wait for45 min Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2017, 07:44:41 AM It's completely ridiculous that communist candidate Melenchon has so much support. France is no longer a great country it once was and Hollande's term was a disaster but that guy would take France into an even worst level. Generally speaking no one of these four candidates come to me as really good. Three of them are pro-Putin (and this is by no means the only bad thing about them), while the last one seem to be content with current situation: struggling economy and terrorist danger. If I had to chose I would pick Fillon as the best of the worst but I am no fan of him. I predict Le Pen and Fillon/Macron to go through and one of the last two to win in May. However it is a pretty open race between the four today. It's not that ridiculous if you think about it: In the US, most chose the extremist right candidate Trump and a lot also went to the extreme left with Bernie Sanders. In Austria, the extreme right received 35% in the first round, while the leftist got 21%. The establishment was shut out in both elections. I could definitely see France also choosing the far-right extremist and the far-left extremist today. But let's still hope that Macron tops Melenchon. A Le Pen vs. Melenchon runoff would be disgusting. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: SunSt0rm on April 23, 2017, 07:45:37 AM Just voted in The Hague, lines are not as long as in some other major cities abroad. Had to wait for45 min Macron, although i would have voted Juppe if he won the primaires Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on April 23, 2017, 07:51:09 AM Just voted!
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on April 23, 2017, 07:51:18 AM It's completely ridiculous that communist candidate Melenchon has so much support. France is no longer a great country it once was and Hollande's term was a disaster but that guy would take France into an even worst level. Generally speaking no one of these four candidates come to me as really good. Three of them are pro-Putin (and this is by no means the only bad thing about them), while the last one seem to be content with current situation: struggling economy and terrorist danger. If I had to chose I would pick Fillon as the best of the worst but I am no fan of him. I predict Le Pen and Fillon/Macron to go through and one of the last two to win in May. However it is a pretty open race between the four today. Melenchon is not communist. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: PresidentSamTilden on April 23, 2017, 07:52:23 AM But let's still hope that Macron tops Melenchon. A Le Pen vs. Melenchon runoff would be disgusting. I like some things about Melenchon (emotional appeal I guess), but two Frexiters versing off for president is kind of a scary concept. Aren't people worried that the end of the EU could lead to a war or at least a more insecure security situation? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Progressive on April 23, 2017, 07:53:38 AM Any indications on turnout in key areas as they affect a certain candidate's chances?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 136or142 on April 23, 2017, 07:56:43 AM What times do the polls close with say, East Coast U.S time. (Three Hours later than Pacific Coast time.) Sorry if this has been answered already.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2017, 07:57:23 AM Any indications on turnout in key areas as they affect a certain candidate's chances? I have looked through the 12:00 turnout figures by dept. and they are all over the place. You cannot draw any conclusions here ... What times do the polls close with say, East Coast U.S time. (Three Hours later than Pacific Coast time.) Sorry if this has been answered already. 2pm East Coast. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Progressive on April 23, 2017, 07:58:34 AM Any good live updates website to read tidbits throughout the day as they come live?
Also, side note. I saw video of Le Pen leaving her vehicle to vote. She seemed to be in a one car motorcade. Is that typical in France? In the US, even more minor candidates would at least have like a black SUV with some security. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 136or142 on April 23, 2017, 08:00:17 AM Any indications on turnout in key areas as they affect a certain candidate's chances? I have looked through the 12:00 turnout figures by dept. and they are all over the place. You cannot draw any conclusions here ... What times do the polls close with say, East Coast U.S time. (Three Hours later than Pacific Coast time.) Sorry if this has been answered already. 2pm East Coast. Thanks, that's earlier than I expected. Odd, elections here end around 8 P.M, yet the French end voting by 2 P.M. :D (Sorry, just a really stupid joke.) Then there is this "joke": I don't know why anybody lives in Greenwich. All you get there is a mean time! Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: America Needs R'hllor on April 23, 2017, 08:03:50 AM But let's still hope that Macron tops Melenchon. A Le Pen vs. Melenchon runoff would be disgusting. I like some things about Melenchon (emotional appeal I guess), but two Frexiters versing off for president is kind of a scary concept. Aren't people worried that the end of the EU could lead to a war or at least a more insecure security situation? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: kyc0705 on April 23, 2017, 08:06:13 AM Any good live updates website to read tidbits throughout the day as they come live? Also, side note. I saw video of Le Pen leaving her vehicle to vote. She seemed to be in a one car motorcade. Is that typical in France? In the US, even more minor candidates would at least have like a black SUV with some security. Isn't a one-car motorcade just a car? But to your question, you must ask yourself: when was the last time a French president or presidential candidate has been assassinated? I'm guessing it's not that frequent. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 136or142 on April 23, 2017, 08:20:32 AM Any good live updates website to read tidbits throughout the day as they come live? Also, side note. I saw video of Le Pen leaving her vehicle to vote. She seemed to be in a one car motorcade. Is that typical in France? In the US, even more minor candidates would at least have like a black SUV with some security. Isn't a one-car motorcade just a car? But to your question, you must ask yourself: when was the last time a French president or presidential candidate has been assassinated? I'm guessing it's not that frequent. I don't know if I like this discussion or not, but there were assassination attempts against De Gaulle. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on April 23, 2017, 08:21:43 AM Any good live updates website to read tidbits throughout the day as they come live? Also, side note. I saw video of Le Pen leaving her vehicle to vote. She seemed to be in a one car motorcade. Is that typical in France? In the US, even more minor candidates would at least have like a black SUV with some security. Isn't a one-car motorcade just a car? But to your question, you must ask yourself: when was the last time a French president or presidential candidate has been assassinated? I'm guessing it's not that frequent. Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on April 23, 2017, 08:26:30 AM Of course, Mitterrand once faked an assassination attempt on himself for publicity reasons before he became president.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Klartext89 on April 23, 2017, 08:31:27 AM As a pupil, I was in France (my home town has a "partner town" in France) for an exchange. It was in an area where the Left usually overperforms (Royal won there in 2007 e.g.), nevertheless I chatted with my guest family these days and they told me that they know a huge amount of people voting FN for the first time ever. Very good sign, compared to the LaLibre poll, I hold my fingers crossed for LePen-Fillon and a massive NO towards mass immigration, Islamization and other neoliberal/Leftist ideologies.
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Klartext89 on April 23, 2017, 08:40:28 AM Radio Londres:
https://twitter.com/RadioLondres_fr/status/856140298216460289 "Mehr En Amérique du Nord, c'est leur projet. Je répète, en Amérique du Nord, c'est leur projet #RadioLondres" Marine Le Pen won North America? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: windjammer on April 23, 2017, 08:50:21 AM Radio Londres: https://twitter.com/RadioLondres_fr/status/856140298216460289 "Mehr En Amérique du Nord, c'est leur projet. Je répète, en Amérique du Nord, c'est leur projet #RadioLondres" Marine Le Pen won North America? Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: jaichind on April 23, 2017, 08:51:41 AM If the first estimate coming out at 8PM Paris time excludes urban centers then if that shows Macron doing well then would not that mean Macron doing well ? If it shows Macron not doing well then it does not mean much yet ?
Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hydera on April 23, 2017, 08:51:52 AM Radio Londres: https://twitter.com/RadioLondres_fr/status/856140298216460289 "Mehr En Amérique du Nord, c'est leur projet. Je répète, en Amérique du Nord, c'est leur projet #RadioLondres" Marine Le Pen won North America? French from North America (except Montréal): Macron (45,35%) — Fillon (25,33%) — Mélenchon (14,05%) — Le Pen (6,29%) https://www.rtbf.be/info/monde/detail_presidentielle-francaise-macron-et-melenchon-arrivent-en-tete-en-outremer?id=9587638 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Mr. Morden on April 23, 2017, 08:53:06 AM Le Pen has reached about 36% chance to win the presidency on predictit That is....not in line with what any of the "real" betting markets are saying. On Betfair, or example, it's: Macron 62.1 Le Pen 22.2 Fillon 15.4 Melenchon 8.3 Title: Re: 2017 French Presidential Election Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2017, 08:58:27 AM There has been a long line to reach the voting place in Montreal all day. Voters have said they waited 2 hours. At the close there was still a long line and those people will still be able to vote. 57000 people are registered to vote in Montreal (vs 44000 in 2012). The news story mentions people wanting to vote against the extremist candidates. Video of the line during the day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SblCuZVOk8s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SblCuZVOk8s) that video said the lineup was 3 hours! In that time, they could've driven to the embassy in Ottawa (2 hour drive), and waited in the much shorter 1 hour line up. |