Talk Elections

Something I was wondering was whether Arab-Americans as a whole were not only more likely to vote Republican before 9/11 and the Bush administration's reaction to it (along with the rest of the Republican Party, broadly speaking), but also, whether Muslims of Arab descent were closer to Christians of Arab descent in their voting habits prior to 9/11 (and its aftermath) than afterward.

In other words, is there any empirical (or even anecdotal) evidence - that someone here could offer - whether Arab-American Muslims were, prior to 9/11, less likely to consider their religion (and more to the point, the strong feelings that they and other American Muslims experienced of being "Othered" in their own country, and the related popular fears and suspicions of being "fellow travelers" re: terrorism) as a primary (if not the primary) influence on their politics, and that consequently, they were closer to Arab Christians in their voting patterns? My suspicion here is that this was in fact the case, considering the apparently massive swing among Muslim voters from Bush in 2000 to Kerry in 2004. Note sure of that finding's empirical credibility, though.

Any more information on this would be much appreciated.

No joke, the Bush 2000 campaign sent surrogates to Dearborn and viewed the Arab-American community there as the centerpiece to their strategy to flip Michigan

A few years ago, there was some polling I think Zogby did on this (James Zogby being of Arab-American background himself) that found nearly all of the swing toward Democrats among Arab-Americans came from Muslim Arab-Americans going from a relatively split constituency to being an almost exclusively Democratic constituency. By comparison, Catholic Arab-Americans tended to be "lean R" in line with other non-Hispanic white Catholics, and Eastern Orthodox Arab-Americans tended to be about 50/50 split, with virtually no change before/after 9/11.

The Arab-American "experience" differs dramatically by religious affiliation. The majority of Arab Christians in America are 3rd+ generation Americans and often marry people of other ethnicities. There isn't a strong sense of ethnic identity outside of communities in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. They are, in a lot of respects, not all that different politically from other "white ethnics" like the Italians or the Irish or the Greeks. By contrast, there were very few Muslim Arabs immigrating to the US until the late 20th century. You have a lot more first-generation immigrants, with the added burden of belonging to a religious minority. So I think there is definitely a heightened sense among Muslim Arab-Americans of being an "out group" that is actively viewed with suspicion and hostility by the majority.

John Zogby is (was) the pollster. James is his brother. The Zogby's supported Cynthia McKinney and also an opponent of Tom Delay. I'm not sure I would trust any polling on this issue as being objective.