Talk Elections

this poll is interesting:

Labour: 33.7
Hoyre: 20.1
Centre: 14.3
Progress: 11.1
Christian Democrats: 5.1
Venstre: 4.3
Socialist Left: 4.1
Red: 2.8
Greens: 2.7

So we can expect a return to the Ap-C coalition?

Why are Progress polling so badly? Junior coalition partner syndrome?

The long-term reason is that they have not really done much in government. It's worth noting that the Progress Party's election programme was kind of insane: namely, it called for just privatising everything and abolishing the Oil Fund, then spending all the profits on a big infrastructure binge and huge tax cuts all over the place. Though there has been record dipping into the oil fund this government, the realities of low oil prices and being tied to the more cautious Hoyre meant these dreams were not reached. Not to mention the reliance on Venstre and Christian Democrats, who routinely pooh-pooh any populist stuff that Progress can think of.

The short-term reason is the young leader of the Centre Party is stealing their anti-EEA schtick. Except whereas Progress hate taxes, Centre hate wolves and urban folk.

I also find that uncertainty around the 4 percent threshold quite interesting.

venstre below threshold would be lovely. how green party got 1 mp with 2.8% last time?

They won a constituency seat in the Oslo multimember-constituency due to getting 5.6% of the vote there. In Norway most of the seats (150) are distributed proportionally inside each constituency, while only 19 seats are leveling seats to make the seat distribution match the vote distribution better on a national level for parties winning more than 4%. Unlike in Denmark, winning a constituency seat does not make you eligible for your share of the seats on the national level.
Oslo is the largest constituency with 18 constituency seats and 1 leveling seat. The Greens could therefore easily win a seat again if they match their percentage in Oslo. Also the Red's best chance is probably a constituency seat in Oslo. Had there been a 19th constituency seat in Oslo in 2013, the Reds would have won it. Also Venstre and the Socialist Left would win seats in Oslo even if they dip just below 4% nationally. Perhaps also in Hordaland.

Labor has finished first in seats and votes in every election since 1927. That is insane.

Would they be considered the single most successful party in a democracy?

Being more inept than the PVV, truly an achievement. Tip of the hat, Progress.

regarding numeric "victories" maybe, otherwise i would argue PRI/japanese lib-dems are better examples,

Depends. Norwegian Labour has always been first in seats but not always led government. I think the Japanese LDP (counting only since WWII) and maybe Fianna Fail have been in government for more time.

Compared to the 2013 election and the local elections in 2015:

Poll  2017  2015       ch     2013   ch
AP:  33.7   33.6     +0.1    30.8  +2.9
H:    20.1   23.4     -3.3     26.8   -6.7
SP:  14.3     8.0    +6.3       5.5   +8.8
FrP: 11.1   10.3    +0.8      16.3   -5.2
KrF:   5.1    5.6     -0.5        5.6   -0.5
V:      4.3    5.0    - 0.7        5.2   -0.9
SV:    4.1    4.0    +0.1        4.1     0.0
Rødt: 2.8    2.2    +0.6        1.1   +1.7
MdG: 2.7    5.0     -2.3        2.8    -0.1


so some fairly big changes, but largely similar to the local elections 2 years ago, the big exception being a drop for the Greens, although their share in polling did increase in the run up to the last election.

apart from their spike in 1993 in the run up to the EU referendum, SP haven't done this well since the 1970s

A nice description of both the Progress Party and the Centre Party. The government's ongoing municipal reform, aimed to reduce the number of municipalities, has received much criticism, and is probably one of the key reasons behind the Centre Party's increase in support. The wolf debate has also received quite a bit of attention recently, and in addition to being a pretty important issue in intself for many farmers, it is also used by the party to emphasize how urban Oslo "elites" supposedly ignore the concerns of the periphery. I would be surprised if they were still polling these numbers in September though.

As for the EEA agreement, the Progress Party is actually still a supporter of it, and it has never featured prominently in any of their campaigns (although the EEA has received increased criticism within the party recently, it doesn't appear to be a major issue for its leaders.)

Good to see that the Norwegian Centre Party is doing just as well as the Swedish one. :) We Agrarians will rule Scandinavia once more!

And indeed force everyone to eat Swedish/Norwegian cheese (delete as appropriate).

Polling average by pollofpolls.no (http://pollofpolls.no)
The government and its support parties only receive 75 seats, while the opposition gets 94 seats. The Reds have increased to 2.9% nationally, and are now predicted to win 2 seats in Oslo on 8.4% of the vote. Venstre is below the threshold, but wins a seat in both Oslo and Akershus. The Greens retain their Oslo seat.

Ap 33,0% (61 seats)
Høyre 23,3 (42)
Frp 12,0 (22)
SV 4,2 (8 )
Sp 12,2 (22)
KrF 4,9 (9)
Venstre 3,1 (2)
MDG 3,0 (1)
Rødt 2,9 (2)
Others 1,6 (0)                        

The first party leader debate takes place tonight from Arendal. It will include the parties currently represented in parliament as well as Rødt/Red because polls show them winning 1/2 seats in Oslo. The polls have tightened in recent months, and some polls show a majority for the four parties in the current majority if Venstre can get just enough tactical votes from other centre-right parties to get above the 4% threshold.

However, even if the four parties just get another majority, it is not certain that the current situation with a Høyre-Frp government supported by Venstre and KrF will just continue. The relationsship between the two small parties and Frp is not very good, and especially the Christians are not comfortable with the current situation. Just this week KrF leader Knut Arild Hareide had another public feud with Frp immigration minister Sylvi Listhaug, and Hareide seems to prefer solutions without Frp in government. He would like a Høyre-KrF-Venstre government and could then maybe accept Frp as support party, but Frp has stated that they won't support a government they are not a part of. Hareide has proposed a centre-right government with Høyre, KrF, Venstre and Sp with the latter's Trygve Slagsvold Vedum as PM, but this was quickly rejected by Vadum, who prefer cooperation with Ap. Also these four parties don't look like they will get a majority. Another option for Hareide is to join a government with Ap and Sp, especially if the four current majority parties lose their majority. This could draw Ap closer to the middle and keep the socialists in SV and Rødt from any influence. The current polling average just gives these three parties a majority, but it will be tight.

The Greens are uncommitted and say they can work with anyone, except Frp. So we could end up in a situation like in Oslo after the last local elections where the Greens are the kingmakers. In that situation, they joined the centre-left parties and managed to get some significant environmental proposals adopted (carfree city center etc.). At the national level, it seems far more likely that they will join the centre-left parties as well, but I think Ap would rather work with the two centre-right parties than the Greens due to the radical green demands in relation to the oil and gas industry. Ap leader Jonas Gahr Støre has already rejected forming a government with the Greens for that reason, and I think he would really prefer not to depend on them.

Current polling average

Ap 30,0% (55 seats)
Høyre 24,6 (45)
Frp 13,1 (24)
SV 5,1 (9 )
Sp 10,6 (20)
KrF 5,3 (10)
Venstre 3,3 (2)
MDG 3,4 (2)
Rødt 2,7 (2)
Others 2,1 (0)

85 seats are needed for a majority.
Current majority parties: 81 seats
Opposition: 88 seats
Ap-Sp-KrF: 85 seats
Centre-right: 77 seats

pollofpolls.no

You can try NRKs election barometer to find out which party you prefer. https://www.nrk.no/valg/2017/valgomat/

I will translate the questions below:
The answers should be obvious from the emojis, but they are from left to right: Completely disagree, somewhat disagree, no attitude, somewhat agree, completely agree.

1. The state should raise taxes and duties to have enough money for public services
2. Drug addicts don't need punishments, they need help. Therefore, possesion of small drug doses for personal use should no longer be illegal.
3. The possibilities for drilling oil outside the coast of Lofoten, Vesterålen og Senja should be explored.
4. The 2016 police reform, which centralized the police in fewer police districts, was a bad idea and should be repealed.
5. We need to expand the defence budget so it reaches the 2% of GDP agreed upon in NATO
6. Parliament should set a limit for the number of children in a school class.
7. There are too many wolves in Norway, who cause damage. More of them should be shot.
8. The wealth tax makes it harder for Norwegian company owners to create jobs and should be reduced further.
9. Norway should quite the EEA.
10. We should limit the use of private companies in health care, schools and kindergardens.
11. The full-day school should be obligatory. This includes free shool meals, and means that (most) homework is done at the school with help from teachers/assistents.
12. All asylum seekers should be detained should be detained in closed centers until their identity has been completely checked.
13. It is a good thing with the "free health care choice" which allows patients to choose between private and public health care for treatment. Paid for by the public in both instances.
14. The politicians should start dismantling Norwegian oil production
15. Surrogate mothers should be allowed.
16. It has become to easy to hire people in temporary positions.
17. Unaccompanied asylum seekers aged 16-18 without a personal threat against them in their home country should be able to get a permanent stay in Norway.
18. We should keep and improve the "cash support" which allows families to get cash payments instead of getting a kindergarden spot for their child.
19. Big road projects, which will increase transportation by car, should be stopped.
20. It is important to keep a school subject called Christianity with dominant focus on that subject instead of a more general "religion" subject.
21. It is urgent that capitalism as our economic system is quickly phased out.
22. As a part of the current municipal reform, parliament should be able to force through mergers if the municipalities themselves can't reach the desired reduction.
23. It is more important that the big farms grow and produce more food than it is to keep small farms through the country.
24. A normal work day is too long and should be reduced to 6 hours.

Then at the end, the questions are lined up in the above order, and you can pick the most important issues for you. Then press "se resultat", and you will get your score.

My own result:
Frp 80%
Høyre 79%
Ap 66%
KrF
V
Sp
MdG
Rødt
SV

I got MDG 76%, SV 75% and Rødt 67%, roughly equal with Ap.

Ap 76%
SP 72%
MDG 69%
R-SV (tie)
KRF
H
V
FP

Ap 66%
Sp 59%
Frp 58%
H
MDG
KRF
V
R-SV tie

Would vote Frp anyway.

V 71%
H - 70%
FRP - 64%

R - 76%
SV - 71%
MDG - 71%
AP
SP
KRF
V
H
FRP

82% H
78% V
77% FRP

The debate yesterday was mostly about economic issues, particularly taxation, and "Norwegian values". It wasn't particularly well moderated and there was too much talking over each other. The last part mostly just became "Here's what I think is important, this is a crucial Norwegian value", with Red talking about how it was a crucial Norwegian value with financial sovereignty so economic links to the EU should be cut, KrF talking about how Christian values were important and we shouldn't do biotech etc. So it became a shattered part without much focus, and when the focus was shortly on immigration, it was mostly horrible points about the tone of the debate etc.

It was interesting/brave to see that Ap so clearly talk about raising taxes, so this gave a quite good and relatively clear debate between the blocs, although notably Hareide from KrF said that while the tax cuts during this term was right, it was now time to focus on strengthening public services and not make further tax cuts. Venstre seem much more in line with the government economically on the overall ideas about taxes, privatization etc.
Sp's leader Vadum clearly tried to steal voters from Frp with attacks on their record on taxation, the relationship to EU while also making quite tough statements on immigration. However, he didn't seem very sharp, and talked suprisingly little about decentralization and wolves.
KrF and FrP unsurprisingly clashed the hardest on immigration, and based on this debate, you wouldn't think the two could be a part of the same majority again.

A new Norstat poll for NRK with some interesting movements. A narrow majority (85-84) for the four current majority parties despite Venstre not being over the threshold (although getting close with 3.9%). Both Ap and Sp drop significantly, while the parties to their left, particularly the Greens, are on the rise. This poll means that in the polling average. both Venstre and the Greens are now closing in on the threshold, both rising to 3.6%.

Rødt seems to be in a bit of a mini-surge, and are convincingly above the threshold in a new TNS poll.

78% AP
69% SP
60% H
MDG-KRF
FRP
V
OR
R

Venstre leader Trine Skei Grande now promises that the party will support any centre-right/right-wing government over one which includes Ap. This could be a quite wise move, at least in the short term, for a party that is close to the threshold, as it certainly means that voters who prefer a centre-right government could feel safe in lending them a tactical vote. Some moderate heroes or those with strong Frp-antipathies might not like it, but they are probably a smaller group and I would guess that many has already left the party. Venstre has not been as hesitant as KrF in working with FrP, but until now they have not ruled out cooperation with the centre-left parties. Grande still says that she would prefer a Høyre-Venstre-KrF government to a continued Høyre-FrP, but if an agreement can't be reached on the first option, she would continue to prefer the latter over working with Ap and the other left-wing parties.

Seems tactically smart.  My question is MDG and R are not part of either one but if either are both cross the 4% line wouldn't the throw their support behind a Labour led.  For the centre-right coalition I am thinking they absolutely need the Venstre to cross the 4% line while hope MDG and R stay below it while for the centre-left coalition they may not rely on either but I cannot see MDG or R allowing a centre-right to go through.  The only way the centre-right could survive in that scenario is convince the Centre Party to switch allegiances but not sure how likely that is.  I don't see why MDG couldn't join the centre-left one if they cross the 4% mark and perhaps maybe if they agree to that you might get some tactical voting.  R is a bit trickier as they are on the extreme left and I am not sure AP wants to be relying on them, nonetheless if they held the balance of power, it is pretty obvious which way they would go.

R will without a doubt support a Labour-led coalition, although Støre would prefer not to be reliant on their votes. If such a scenario occurs, he will probably work heavily with KrF to avoid dependence on them. MDG has not commited to the left like R, but I have little doubt that they will end up supporting a left-wing coalition if they become king makers. But again, I think Støre will try quite hard to lure KrF instead. There is certainly movement of voters from Ap to MDG, but I think this is as much leftists who are disappointed with Støre's focus on the center than people who vote tactically. You are right that a clear commitment to the centre-left from MDG might convince more leftists to lend them a tactical vote, but so far it seems like they keep their mantra of not committing, which is used locally as well. Also, they are perhaps disappointed that Støre has already ruled them out as a coalition party.

The Centre Party has quite clearly rejected the overtures from KrF to join a centre-right government, so if the current four majority parties lose their majority, I think there is very little chance of a centre-right government.

So if a centre-right majority becomes mathematically impossible, would the KrF consider supporting a Labour led coalition in order to pull them towards the centre as opposed to having them pulled left.

My understanding is if the Liberals can crack the 4% and the Reds and MDG stay under 4% it's a toss up and could go either way.  But if the Liberals fall below 4% or either the R or MDG cracks it, then it pretty much guarantees a centre-left government.  Is this correct?

The KrF's choice after the election will likely be very important, even with a continued majority for the four current majority parties. They have made clear that they prefer a centre-right government (Høyre - KrF - Venstre), but it is unlikely that these parties will get a majority, even if then include Sp, who has so far rejected these ideas. So if Frp as expected rejects this centre-right government without them, the question is whether KrP will continue to support a Høyre-Frp government (probably in an looser form than now) or cross the floor and team up with Ap and Sp. If the centre-left parties win a majority, the latter move becomes easier and more legitimate as they can use the argument of keeping Rødt and SV out of influence.


Well, not guarantees. NRKs Norstat poll from last week showed a 85-84 majority for the right-wing parties with Venstre at 3,9% and 3 seats. But yes, Venstre above the threshold gives the right wing parties a decent chance, while Rødt and/or MDG above it makes a centre-left government very likely. And all three parties seem to be moving upward so far during the campaign. In the polloffpolls.no average, MDG is now at 3.9%, Venstre at 3.7% and Rødt and 3,0%.

FRP 80
H    70
V    58

It would seem that for the ruling alliance to win would require V to cross 4% and both MDG and R to not cross 4%.

Some news from recent days in the campaign.

Ap voters strongly prefer cooperation with SV over KrF. In an InFact poll for VG, 60.9% of Ap voters prefer cooperation with SV over KrF, while only 17.3% prefer cooperation with KrF over SV. This fact probably helps explain why Ap is leaking voters left; they are dissatisfied with Støre's centrist tendencies. In the pollofpolls.no average, Ap is down 3% since June while SV, MDG and Rødt are all up 0.7-1%.

Sp wants to limit Støre's proposed tax increases. Sp leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum has said that Ap's proposed tax increases of 15 billion NOK are too high, and that they would prefer a level around half of that. Sp also states that the focus should be on cutting excises and duties, and raising taxes for the rich. He is particularly angry about the raised diesel duty in last year's budget, claiming that this reflected a Oslo-centric world view, while people in many part of Norway need a car.

Frp proposes break with human rights conventions. Immigration minister Sylvi Listhaug proposes that Norway should make a break with the ECHR, which limits the actions that can be taken in immigration policies, e.g. sending out criminal immigrants, creating closed centers for asylum seekers with undisclosed identity as well as for rejected asylum seekers until they can be sent out. None of the other parties support this, not even Høyre.

Jonas Gahr Støre warms up to Tuesday's Prime Minister Debate by accusing Erna Solberg of "making Norway a colder and harder society". According to Støre, she has done this by taking a "right wing populist party" into the government. He attacks Immigration Minister Sylvi Listhaug for her policies and rhetorics, and says that Solberg has allowed her and Frp to lower Norway's standards. Støre makes clear that an Ap-led government will change that:"My promise to the voters is clear. In a government led by me, we will bring back decency in the way we talk about other humans. For me, this election is a choice between different value sets".

Quite interesting attack from Støre. Obviously a big chunk of voters will agree with this criticism, but what about the median voter? Støre might attract some of the Frp-critical voters from Venstre and Krf, but other than that, this seems mostly likely a way for Ap to try to regain some of their leaking left-wing voters by standing up to the Frp. However, if this gets as much attention as I expect, including dominating the debate on Tuesday, then I think it could very likely help the government's chances of staying in power. Perhaps I'm just too influenced by Danish events, where it did not exactly help Social Democrats winning elections, when they attacked DPP for their tone on immigration.

Just realised there will be a Sami Parliament election as well? Anything interesting happening with that?

Ap keeps dropping like a stone in polls. In a new Norstat poll for NRK, Høyre is bigger than Ap. Erna Solberg's party gets 25.7%, while Støre's Ap gets 24.4%. If this materialises in the election, it will be the first time since 1924 that Høyre is bigger than Ap. Despite Venstre being below the threshold and the Greens above it, the current four majority parties get 85 seats while the combined opposition gets 84 seats. The poll also shows that Solberg is the preferred PM for 46,8% while 36,8% prefer Støre.

How would Aps 2013 voters vote today according to the poll. Still a lot of doubters.

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From what I can read, it seems like the last year has been quite chaotic in Sami politics. The minority Norwegian Sami Association government lost its majority in parliament in December 2016, and was replaced by a coalition of Ap, Høyre and Arja. However, there have been plenty of internal troubles in Ap, and the new government leader Vibeke Larsen was very controversial. She doesn't really speak Sami, and Ap chose Ronny Wilhelmsen as their lead candidate for the election instead. So Larsen left the party and created her own Šiella party. In the poll, I could found this new party looks unlikely to get any significant support. Ap looks like they will be clearly the biggest party, so Wilhelmsen is likely to be the new government leader. Arja, which supported Norwegian Sami Association before taking them down, drops from 11.4 to 3.7%. But I could imagine this election is hard to poll, and I have little clue about whether they are usually accurate.

The way the polls are moving, I will now say that if Venstre gets above the threshold, things are looking very good for the current four majority parties, even if the Greens cross the threshold as well. A recent Respons poll for Aftenposten has this scenario with a 88-81 lead for the current majority parties.

Frp is getting a great deal of attention on their key issue of immigration, which means that they are reaching the 16.3% or above from 2013 in several polls in these days. First, Sylvi Listhaug got a great deal of attention with her proposal to stop following the ECHR's rulings, then Støre decided to make his attack on Solberg for "making Norway a colder and harder place" due to taking Frp into government and accepting Listhaug's rhetoric and proposals, and the finally, there has been a lot of talk about Listhaug's recent trip to Sweden. The Swedish immigration minister Helene Fritzon cancelled on her just before their planned meeting, so instead Listhaug went to the crime-infested ghetto of Rinkeby to illustrate the failed Swedish immigration policies that Norway should try to avoid.

I'm surprised a party to the right of Progress on immigration/"cultural issues" hasn't taken off, considering FrP is one of the most "respectable" of the major populist right outfits

Not too familiar with how people in Norway view Trump, but could it be the Trump factor.  It seems ever since Trump was elected as well as Brexit it has somewhat diminished right wing populist parties.  Although granted that they were in government that attack might be less effective.

The newspaper VG quotes sources in Ap for saying that Støre's main strategy in the rest of the election will be attacking the government and Solberg in particular, based on Listhaug's journey to Sweden and her general behaviour as immigration minister. The sources say that they hope this will mobilize Ap doubters and convince potential switchers to SV/MDG by focusing on getting Frp out of the government offices, that it will weaken the picture of Erna Solberg as "Norway's Merkel" by continously branding her as "the only Western European PM to have taken a right populist party into government"* and that it will attract or at least de-mobilize KrF/Venstre voters, who don't like Frp. It is always hard to know how reliable such information is, and even if it is reliable, it might be changed a bit now that the information is out. But if there's any truth in it, I can only describe it as extremely brave to base the last part of the campaign on this. There is quite the risk that immigration-sceptic Ap or Sp voters will leave the ship. The fact that Venstre is hovering below the 4%-threshold makes the strategy more viable, but there have been polls during this campaign with centre-right majority despite Venstre being below the threshold.

* Lucky that the Norwegian election is held before the Austrian one ;)

Seems somewhat risky, but perhaps comparing FrP to Donald Trump might be a strategy.  I believe Donald Trump is pretty reviled throughout Western Europe and I believe many in the FrP are supportive of him so that might be a strategy.  Bush was similarly hated in Western Europe and Schroeder came back in 2002 running on anti-Bush platform and likewise the PSOE pulled off a surprise victory for similar reason although the Madrid train attack probably tipped things there.

Doubt it. frP entered government long before Trump, and definitely for a long enough time to disappoint more radical voters who might want more of a FN style platform.

Looks like toward the end of Aug there has been a surge in the polling for the ruling bloc and a fall in support for the Ap led opposition.  Any reason for this or is this a typical rally toward the incumbent toward the end of a campaign ?

Scandinavian countries have a big tendency towards having wild swings against incumbent governments that disappear during the election campaign.

KrF leader Hareide now commits closer to Erna Solberg than he has done hitherto. He says that if the majority is retained, Solberg will remain as PM, even if she continues governing with Frp. However, he maintains that there won't be a formalized cooperation agreement as in the past four years and he won't guarantee to support Solberg's government for the full term.

I noticed Wikipedia at least on the English site has no poll updates so does anyone here know if there have been further polls to show where the last minute breaks are going.  It looks like the centre-right has the momentum, but would be nice to see the numbers.

http://www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Stortinget

Thanks.  Looks like still a close race as Labour has recovered a bit and Hoyre is stalling but still could go either way.  Likely to be a lot closer than 2013 whomever comes out ahead.  Also What about Reds and MDG holding the balance of power as they are not part of either alliance but they could be in the balance of power.  I suspect they will support Labour though if they are in this scenario.

Is there still a good chance that Labour wins but can't form a coalition again?

Depends on if the Greens get in. If the Greens make it over the threshold Labour probably forms government.

Definitely although I think the 4% threshold is key here.  Both the Liberals and Christian Democrats are in danger of possibly missing it so if both miss it Labour wins, if one misses it likely Labour but still might work assuming the Reds and Greens don't break it.  If both Reds and Greens cross it or as a matter of fact just one likely Labour.  Now if both Christian Democrats and Liberals cross it but Greens and Reds miss it then what you are suggesting becomes far more likely.

I think the Center-Right government will be re-elected.

My prediction:

26.7% Labour Party
25.0% Conservative Party
15.3% Progress Party
  9.3% Centre Party
  6.0% Socialist Left Party
  4.8% Liberal Party
  4.5% Christian Democratic Party
  3.8% Green Party
  3.0% Red Party
  1.6% Others

49.6% Government
42.0% Opposition (48.8% incl. Greens + Red Party)

Turnout: 78.9%

For the first time, more than 1 million Norwegian voters have already made their choice. The early voting period ended yesterday, and 27.3% of the electorate has already crossed of their choice. This means that 1 029 014 people have already voted.

Due to concerns about the safety of the country's electronic devices, it has been decided that all counting shall take place by hand, whereas previously many districts have been able to count early votes via machines. This has been the case in f.ex. Trondheim, Bergen and Oslo, where the municipalities with short notice have to find extra staff. This means the results can be delayed from some parts of the country, particularly considering the high amount of early votes.

In around half of the country, the election already starts tomorrow at around noon when the polls will be open for a few hours. Polls are then open most of the day Monday, where individual opening times for each locality is also allowed, but they must close at latest at 21.00. At that point the news stations will announce the results of their exit polls.

The last election debate took place yesterday in Bergen. KrFs Hareide's performance has been rated poorly in the media; he was seen as too vague and was pressed hard on his flip-flop of accepting Frp in government for another term. Perhaps KrF in the end will be more threathened by the threshold than Venstre? SV's Lysbakken was seen as performing very well again, with some solid and strong attacks on the current government. The party has moved from 4.6% to 5.9% in the polling average during the campaign, and perhaps their end result will be even higher. However, SV's success could also deliver some problems for the opposition if he draws in too many of the left of Ap-voters, so that MDG and/or Rødt won't cross the threshold. Neither of the two latter's party leaders were seen as having a notable debate.

The three big party leaders were seen as performing relatively equal. Solberg was as usual very moderate and somewhat technocratic in her language use, but did go a bit further on immigration than previously, which could be very helpful in causing a clearer divide.

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what was the main issues in campaign? and how parties stand on them?

Ipsos poll on the most important issues for Dagbladet. The three top issues listed by voters are education, health and immigration. The below figure shows who the voters think will best handle each issue. The issues in the figure are education, health, job creation, keep the economy in order, integration, immigration, elderly care, municipal economy, family and equality policy, transport, climate and environment, nature protection, district policies, city policies.

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Do any more polls come out or are we done?  If done then I will make my projection although it will be very vague as not as familiar with Norwegian politics as some here.

I don't think more polls will come now. Perhaps one or two tomorrow morning before the polls open.

Pollofpolls.no average

Ap 27,2 (48)   
Høyre 24,2 (42)
Frp 14,6 (28)
SV 5,9 (10)
Sp 10,1 (17)
KrF 4,5 (8 )
Venstre 4,2 (7)
MDG 4,0 (7)
Rødt 3,4 (2)
Andre 1,7 (0)

The narrowest majority possible for the current government with 85 seats.                            

Any history of one side being over or under represented.  Also what is the typical turnout amongst younger voters and is it like the English speaking countries where millennials tilt heavily to the left and older voters heavily to the right or less there less of an age gap like Germany.

My preliminary are 86 seats current government and 83 seats opposition but could really go either way.

Labour wins the popular vote, but gets a lower percentage than in 2013.  Both Christian Democrats and Liberals cross the 4% threshold while Greens are right on the line while Reds miss it.

What are the exit polls like in Norway.

Is there one big joint exit poll, or several from different media outlets?

Do they offer seat projections or just national shares of the vote ?

How has their accuracy been in the past?

There are at least two, from the two main TV channels (NRK and TV2).

They do both.

In the elections I've followed (since 2005 or so), they've tended to be quite accurate.

The exit polls are released 21:00 local time, btw.

Today's the day

Are there any livestreams?

https://www.firstone.tv/Live/Norway/NRK-1-4

Think NRK site proper is geoblocked.

https://www.nrk.no/valg2017/

It works outside Norway too, because I can watch it.

Works for me too in NYC.

Found the official one and it works!

https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/valg-2017-1.12257515

The other live stream from TV 2 also works outside Norway:

https://live.tv2.no/valg-2017

Works here too, thanks.

Yep great stuff thanks all for the confirmed TV link.

Official results site below, Sprak at top right to change language:

https://www.valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2017

What do people think the outcome will be? Obviously a lot depends on which parties cross the threshold, my gut feeling is a narrow centre-right win.

Anyway settling in for a night of Norwegian TV here in NW London.

Hoping for a Shy Tory effect, but it's really 50/50. Didn't think I would end up hoping that V reach the threshold.

Turnout looks to be really good: 80-81%.

That would be +2%.

27.3% voted early, which is an all-time high.

Government bloc wins majority

KrF and Venstre both at around 4.0%. The first just below, the latter just above in the prognosis. And neither MDG nor Rødt above it.

TV2  Government bloc 91 seats,   H 26.7%. vs Ap 26.4%

Will this still be the case if KRF and V end up below the threshold? I'm not sure.

Agree.  What I meant to say is exit polls indicate Government bloc wins majority

Very happy with my prediction, if true ...

Very happy with the result, if true :)

If H does overtake Ap in terms of vote share would that not be the first time Ap is not the highest vote winning party since the 1920s ?

Damn, official site is quickly uploading the results. Currently Krf under the threshold.

1924 was the last time

What is the threshold?

85-84 now... Ap seems to have done better and H worse...

It is 4%.  If Both KrF and V make the threshold the centre-right bloc should hold, if only one makes it, they might hold but will be very close.  If both miss it then the centre-left bloc will win.  That being said they can still win seats with less than that but only regional, they don't get any top up national ones.

Some ways lucky for the centre-right it is 4% instead of 3% or 5% as it 3% the Greens would likely cross it whereas it 5% both KrF and V would miss it and the reason I mention 5% is in both Germany and New Zealand that is what it is.

TV2 projection still has both KrF and V crossing 4% and the government bloc at 90.  I think it is down from 91 earlier. 

NRK say that currently Venstre is 4.000 votes below the threshold, KrF 1.000 votes above it.

Official website has it at 85-84... I really hope the prognosis is still right.

Pretty amazing this election result will come down the the 4% threshold for KrF and V with 3 different possible results (Gov victory, near tie, opposition victory)

I believe it's mostly the early votes that have been counted so far. In the early vote share, both KrF, Venstre and MDG have 3.9%. KrF is probably more likely to have voters who have turned up today, so based on that, I would also think they are the most likely to cross the threshold

For a night like this the official results page needs to go out to 2 decimal places of precision and not just 1  :)

Why? Just curious.

How a night like this makes a Catholic Dutch election junkie feel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8R2vT8EM2ac

:D :D

Oslo: 28.5% Ap, 26.7% H.

Older, less educated voters than both of the two other parties.

Looked at 2013 numbers:

KrF early voting: 45 297 Voting day: 113 178
V  early voting: 43 421 Voting day: 104 854
MDG early voting 29 255 Voting day: 49 897

Venstre actually around equal to KrF in share of early voting, but early voting makes up a clearly bigger share of MDG votes in 2013.

How does that compare to past elections and which party is that good for?

Where can I see the live results?

Here it is

https://www.valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2017

Thanks!

Thank you, Diouf. With early voters I never know... it could theoretically also be the case that older, less mobile voters are more inclined to vote early.

Ap on track for its second-worst result ever (2001 was worse).

Oslo is usually a bit of a bellwether. I would say this largely confirms the national view, maybe a bit better for Ap. It was 30.4%-29.8% in 2013, so in Oslo the gap between Ap and H has increased whereas nationally it should have decreased in favor of H, but that is very well possible if one assumes that the government's vote held up better in rural areas and outside Oslo (but not sure if that's true, it may not be true...). Don't have figures for the blocs in Oslo. Also don't know whether these are complete or partial results.

Venstre now in for the first time, and suddenly it's 90-79.

V back above 4% in real count ...

TV2 projection now has it Ap 26.9%  H 26.1%

Trondheim Ap 33 vs. H 21.7, 2013 36.8-24.2.

Something does not compute

If you take a snip-it of the results page

https://www.valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2017

Kristelig Folkeparti   66 094   4,3%   -1,3 pp   -1,3
Venstre                  54 251   4,0%   -1,2 pp   -0,9

66094/54251 is way off from 4.3%/4.0%.  How are they computing these vote shares ?

Huh, you're right.

These small changes are really weird to my Dutch eyes. And Ap being the Biggest Loser as opposition leaders is just embarrassing.

()

Immigration Minister Sylvi Listhaug having a great election. Frp close to being the largest party in her district, Møre & Romsdal, where 62,2% of the votes are counted. Frp is at 22,8% (+2,8%), Høyre at 23.7% (-2,5%), Ap at 20,8% (-4,3%).

http://www.tv2.no/politikk/valg/2017/stortingsvalg

has

KRF   4.5%   (-1.1)      72 417   8   (-2)
V   3.7%   (-1.6)      58 925   7   (-2)

where the vote shares are consistent  with votes but then how does V get 7 seats if they are at 3.7% which is well below 4%.  These results pages lack the most basic QC which excel should be able to give you.

venstre is obviously below threshold

V even under the threshold in Bergen, Norway's second city: 3.9%. They got 6.9% there in 2013. If these are not partial results, I don't see how they're not finished.

I see what is going on.  The 7 seats for V is not from its current vote share but the TV2 projection.

KrF will probably just cross the threshold, but hard to see them avoid getting their worst result since its two first in 1933 and 1936.

Hareide just giving his speech now. Claiming that the election became a presidential contest between Støre and Solberg (Funny, how both of their parties are down then, eh?) and that the electoral games have played too big a part (Would perhaps have been avoided if you had been clearer about what you wanted, and then not change it 4 days before the election).

Based on the current not final results it is 83-84 for the government but if you add the one Green and one Red that would give 85-84 for the opposition.  Is it a given the Greens and Reds will back Labour as I think philosophically they are closer to them or perhaps if the centre-right is no longer viable will the Christian Democrats then support Labour just to keep them in the middle.

V has been rising and is up to 3.81% now

We are at a point where it entirely depends upon V. If they break 4%, the government has a majority. If they don't, the opposition has a incredibly weak 85 seat majority.

Wouldn't Labour if V fails to crack the 4% be better to ask the Christian Democrats to join them than rely on the Reds and the Greens?  Off course if V cracks the 4% this becomes a mute point.

Yeah, this. And even if the government wins a majority, it will be a very thin one, completely depending on the V MPs, who know how supporting the previous government almost ruined their party. Will be difficult to keep together. Probably better if H do it alone for the sake of stability, but FrP won't be okay with that.

Not that I really want to defend Ap, but you could very well argue that at least some of this is a structural development. The general process of fragmentarization certainly seems to be happening in Norway as well with the three biggest parties declining. In fair proportional electoral systems, it will be hard to maintain huge uneven voter coalitions. For Social Democratic parties it is difficult to avoid this tendency as it is difficult to reconcile many different voter groups, particularly young well-educated voters with very left wing values on immigration, environment etc. and traditional working class voters with right wing values.

But Ap's campaign was certainly very poor, and it will be quite interesting how the post-mortem analysis will play out in the party. Will the internal criticism focus on the proposed tax increases, the attacks on Frp on immigration or their lack of a Green profile. What direction will a new leader choose on these subjects?

V up to 3.91% now

Were their proposed tax hikes for all brackets or just the rich.  I don't know about what the typical view is in Norway on taxes, but in the English speaking world tax hikes on the middle class is political suicide but tax hikes on the rich are very popular.  Here in Canada our PM won on promising a middle class tax cut and paying for it by hiking it on the rich.  Although with the gap between the rich and the poor smaller in Norway, not sure the soak the rich has the same currency as it does in the English speaking world.

V now at 4.1% according to NRK, but no idea where that comes from...

Their calculations are wrong ... it should be around 3.93% or so ...

They talked about some examples of Venstre progressing with quite a bit in some traditional strong Høyre areas, which could help them the last step above the threshold.

Oslo is still only 54,6% counted, so even if they back a bit there, it will still be one of their strongest areas.

V up to 3.98% now

Venstre at 4.1 on TV2 and 4.2 in NRK's prognosis with around 80% counted. Looks like they will just make it

Looks like the centre-right bloc will hang on albeit by a narrower margin.  Certainly it seems social democracy has been going through a rough period in much of Europe.  By contrast it seems in the English speaking world which embraced neoliberalism more is seeing social democrats do better.  They nearly won in Britain, could win in New Zealand in two weeks (albeit not guaranteed by any means), are leading in Australia (but still two years away), the next Democrat leader could very well be one (witness how well Sanders has done) while in Canada its a mixed bag, but unlike most other developed countries progressive parties are definitely in control of most of the political landscape and it seems running on a social democratic platform is a ticket to win in Canada while a ticket to lose in most of Europe.

Did Solberg already make a speech? Haven't been watching all the time.

No - Grande for Venstre speaking now, then just the big two leaders to go.

Ap now dangerously close to not coming in first in votes and seats. 49-45 right now, according to NRK1.

Still a 2.2% difference, that's not going to change anymore. The exitpoll was dead-on for the blocs and most parties, except that it overestimated H and underestimated V (both completely within the MoE though), which will matter internally.

It looks like the Liberals “will make it barely, and that means there’s a majority for the current government,” Labor Party official Trond Giske says in interview.

Only 65% counted in Oslo. I'm not completely positive that KrF will make it...

Jonas Gahr Stoere has conceded in a speech to the Ap.

Still no votes counted from today in Bergen, where the upcoming World Championships in cycling is apparently causing major transport problems, so that it took a long time to collect votes to the counting places.

TV2 says that KrF is as good as safe, while it is likely that Venstre will make it as well.

Thanks for this, Diouf.

Solberg now going to make a speech.

The party leader round will take place at 00.30 in parliament.

89% counted now. Venstre at 4.1%

TV2 says that Venstre only needs 2.4% of the remaining 10% of votes that needs to be counted, which is highly likely. And most of the remanining votes are in Bergen, a big city, as well as a bit in Oslo and Trondheim

So 89-80 it is.

KrF say they will not provide outside support for a new H-FrP government and that there has to be a "center-right" government, which probably means they want to be in the government too (or FrP has to be out, or both). V say they will see. So H-FrP seems off the table. All other combinations that include H are still theoretically possible.

So the left wing block actually gets more votes but loses the election?

This is a most unwelcome form of Americanisation in my opinion.

Also why, why have both Rodt and Socialist Left?

Most countries with PR have minimum thresholds to keep out fringe parties.  In the last German election more Germans voted for parties on the right than left but because the AfD and FDP narrowly missed the 5% mark while the Greens and Die Linke made it, the Bundestag had more parties on left than right although since SPD wouldn't work with Die Linke, the CDU/CSU did manage to stay in power.  Labour could form government if they could convince either KrF or V to support them but that seems extremely unlikely.

Sv split from the left of Labour in the early seventies over Nato and EEC membership and some other issues. Rødt are the remains of the Maoist AKP and some miscellaneous Trots. not sure what their differences day to day are though

So classic case of sectarianism being more important than actually winning elections...

If you see AP, SP, SV, MDG and R as bloc and H, Frp, V and Krf as one. Yes then the first bloc got 49.3% and the second 48.9%. However MDG does not see them self as part off any bloc and SP is a non socialist agrarian party that has historically guverned with Krf and V and with H as well. You also have to take in the non socialist micro parties Kristne which got 0.3 and Liberalisterna which got 0.2%.

Also the government bloc symbolically gets 50% if you consider the smaller rightwing parties: pension party: alliance, coastal party, christian party, liberal party has 1.1% combined.

My impression is that SV is more SJW (for lack of a better word) and less doctrinal - remember SV participated in the Stoltenberg government, voted for the Libya/Kosovo interventions etc. Their strategy this election seems to be more specific based on five pledges:

"One, a major increase in the child care subsidies per child from the state that all families receive. Two, no to profit being taken out of the welfare sector’s child protection services, kindergartens, and asylum shelters. Three, reducing Norway’s CO2 emissions by at least three million tons. Four, Norway should take a lead in working for an international ban on nuclear weapons; and five, a new law specifying the maximum amount of children in a classroom per teacher." (quote from Jacobin)

There has also been a bit of a shift left since they left government, with a lot more public votes about leaving NATO etc but I doubt it would surmount to much if they entered government.

Jacobin has English language interviews with both Rodt and SV, and it's clear rodt have a bigger focus on attempting to bring ideology to the masses, fbofw.

https://jacobinmag.com/2017/09/norway-red-party-elections-labor-environment

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/09/norway-elections-socialist-left-snorre-valen

Was the boost in seats huge for the Centre Party?

I was only off by an average of 0.42 points for every party (incl. others) ... :)

VG's results site looks the best of the various media outlets, lots of options on the maps

knowing how much some of us love a good results map broken down as small as possible, here is Oslo broken down by individual polling place, you can see a lot of patterns in the different party figures (east/west, centre/suburbs etc)

http://www.vg.no/valgnatt/2017/valg/storting/fylker/oslo/

other large kommuner are divided into valgkretser (precincts I guess) but smaller ones are not

It seems like the question is whether it will be a continued H-Frp government or a H-Frp-V government. KrF has ruled out government participation with Frp. They state that if they cannot get a H-V-KrF government, it will go into "constructive opposition", i.e. no formalized cooperation agreement and no promise to support the government for the full term. This will obviously make the government less stable, but will also give it more flexibility as it can then make deals with Ap alone for example, unless of course it is something crucial for KrF, which could make it tear down the government if overlooked.

It is a bit surprising that Venstre is considering joining the government, even with Frp, but as the last four years have shown, you are not shielded from "government wear and tear" as a support party. Government participation could in fact make in more obvious where V is getting its policies through, e.g. education or climate. However, it will clearly be quite difficult for V and Frp to reach an agreement on many issues, so if this proves to be a serious option, government negotiations could take a while.

I don't think it's particularly likely that Frp will leave the government. Both government parties held up well, and the internal government cooperation seems to have worked quite well. And while neither of the two small centre-right parties are particularly fond of Frp, I think the election outcome means that they don't have that much legitimacy in forcing Frp to leave the government. And Frp will probably not accept it either. Some talk about the possibility that immigration minister Listhaug could be left out of the next government as a sign of goodwill to the two small parties, but it would be madness by Frp to sacrifice their holy cow like that. They could perhaps let her move on to Justice or something where you can also be tough, and where she can expand on her profile.

  I've read that the Frp has impacted the Norwegian government on immigration and asylum policy, moving it to the right.  What policies has it accomplished and how much difference on these issues has it made, say compared to if a Labour government was in power? I'm wondering if its vote held up as well as it did because of a perceived effectiveness on this issue?

For the first two weeks after the election, Erna Solberg lead talks with the three other party leaders in the governing bloc. KrF has been reluctant all the time, and today they as expected announced that they won't participate in a new government. The party will go into their so-called "constructive opposition" where they will not take down the government, but won't promise its support for the whole term nor be an automatic partner in negotiations. So the question is whether Venstre will join the government now or stay out as in the last term. The party seems quite willing to go into government, and hope that this will give them a better chance to promote their wins. However, it will probably be a while before we find out. The whole process for the 2018 budget is about to start now, which will likely delay government negotiations or even be a part of them.

Still strange how the Centre Party is in the Red Bloc. I wonder if they will eventually move to the Right Bloc, especially if Red Party makes it in next elections. Three parties: Greens, SocialistLeft and Red in the same bloc with the farmers.

nah. The Hoyre-FrP government has been really aggravated Centre's cadre due to its forced mergers and centralisation policy. Plus AP find SP useful as a counterbalancing force to SV et al.

Nprway's rural areas are very well served by the current set-up - especially when one looks at rural and small town areas in Denmark and Sweden. SP don't want to hand carte blanche to any austere treatment of their base.

The new government is likely to be in place next week. The three parties, Høyre, FrP and Venstre, have made serious progress in negotiations, and will present the results for their parties on Sunday. If the agreement is approved in all three parties, the new government will likely be presented during next week. There haven't been a lot of policy details in the media yet, although VG writes that the compromise on immigration will be tightened family reunification rules and an increase in the number of quota refugees through the UN programs.

Former FrP party leader Carl I. Hagen has been critical of Venstre's inclusion in the government, partly because Venstre recently joined with the centre-left parties to block Hagen from joining the Norwegian Nobel Committee which picks the Nobel Peace Prize Winner, but also for sound strategical reasons. Hagen argues it that there are no benefits from including Venstre in the government. There would be benefits if KrF joined as well in a majority cabinet, but Venstre's inclusion alone could make things more rather than less difficult since there will be more intra-cabinet disagreements but the same amount of parliamentary struggles. Hagen would prefer a Høyra-FrP cabinet which could roam free, and make deal with Sp and Ap on issues like immigration and climate. 

  Any sense of whether the immigration compromise will mean more or less total immigration. If it means more, won't this hurt the Frp for participating in such an agreement?

classic!

The parties approved the government programme today, which was presented later in the day. 
It as expected includes several proposed actions to liberalize the economy. The government's alcohol monopoly shops will get expanded opening hours until 21.00 at workdays and saturdays  and normal shops will get easier to open on sundays (unpopular with KrF). There will be cap on the local property tax, which will mean it will have to be lowered in at least 70 municipalities. More competition in the public sector, which will be opened up to more private companies. Remove the license fees for the state broadcaster, and likely decrease overall funding, which will instead happen through regular taxation.

While Høyre largely runs the economic policies, there are some clear wins for Venstre and Frp in other areas:

The wins for Venstre: There will be no oil exploration in the sensitive areas Lofoten, Vesterålen and Senja. Banning fur farming per 2025 (likely another case for Sp to complain wide and loud about). Keep the generous tax benefits for electric cars and introduce higher enviromental taxes for companies. Increase in UN quota refugees if spontaneous asylum seeking stay at the current low levels. Increased paternity leave.

The wins for FrP: Niqab and Burqa ban. Tougher rules on family reunification. More difficult to get Norwegian citizenship (8 years' residence). More police officers.

The government will of course need to find majorities for all these proposals. The cabinet names are relatively similar to the previous government. Siv Jensen, Frp leader, stays as Minister of Finance, Trine Skei Grande, Venstre leader, will be become Minister of Culture, while Frp star Sylvi Listhaug will get a superministry with both justice and immigration.

Does anyone know anything about him and the liberal party in particular ? He seems to have nominated my school parent organization for a nobel peace prize which is a bit weird.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_(Norway)