Talk Elections

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/creating-a-national-precinct-map/

This is really good stuff.

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Looking in Kentucky, Rowan County looks suspiciously like it still has rural democrats in it. The county looks like it had no 70-80% rep precincts. What's going on there?

I like how a lot of the "belts" are VERY patchy in this map. MA definitely looks somewhat redder and one would think MS, AL, and SC were swing states based off this map.

How did Stein and Johnson win precincts in Maine and California?

The one in Maine had only five votes (none of which were for Clinton or Trump). It's discussed in this thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=260872.0). Not sure about California.

Edit: I think the one in California is Landers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landers,_California), which sounds like it might be a kind of weird place filled with UFO-obsessives.

Any explanation for Trump winning Ni'ihau Island in Hawaii?

Also, did anyone get a count for the WV precincts that went for Clinton? Looks like she won about 20 in the entire state (!!)

The sharp divide between the NY/Vermont border is also fascinating.



Here is a zoomable map:

https://openseadragon.github.io/openseadragonizer/?img=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redditmedia.com%2FGsKAYZN-Q0S7YFTCTKODF1g13yM41SB_giOF_d0NMWI.png%3Fs%3D3a5fc9368ad5186f09c2f8a855cb35e7&encoded=true

It's traditionally the most Republican precinct in the state, along with the precinct on Oahu near BYU Hawaii.  The Forbidden Island (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/inside-hawaiis-forbidden-island_us_559f57ece4b096729155e13a) is privately owned by the Robinson family, and its largely Native Hawaiian inhabitants are highly religious.  Entry to the island is strictly limited.

Might have to do with Morehead State. Also, I think the Kim Davis fiasco was in Rowan county, so Democrats there are might be unusually organized and interested.

What I found interesting was that in those northern Alaska precincts that were won by less than 40%, Darrell Castle (Constitution Party) got ~20% of the vote, not Johnson.

Well, the interactive was working and went down again. Bummer...

Makes sense. I hear they have 78 different words for "libtard" up there.

Washington and Oregon look quite Republican, even the western parts.

So here are some fun statistics:

-The precinct containing Trump Tower swung a full 32.55% to the Democrats - one of the biggest swings in Manhattan.
- Apparently five people who live on Wall Street voted for Stein.
- There is a precinct in rural Pocahontas County, WV with 93 voters which swung 39.46% to the Democrats between 2012 and 2016.
- The strongest Democratic-swinging precinct in the District of Columbia contains the Naval Observatory (Vice President's House) and National Cathedral.
- The town of Hildale, UT, which is essentially a walled-off city run by the Fundamentalist LDS Church, gave Clinton 7.69% of the vote, placing her in fourth after Trump, Johnson, and McMullin. Yet, the precinct swung a full 14.23% to the Democrats.
- Likewise, Clinton very nearly came in fourth in the precinct containing Liberty University, coming in behind McMullin and only placing 0.1% ahead of Johnson. And yet the precinct still swung to the Democrats overall.
- And from a previous election: The youngest, most impoverished, and most Hasidic Jewish community in the US - Kiryas Joel, NY appears to have gone over 90% for McCain in 2008, but has since given Romney and Trump modest 10-point wins.

The things I would do to have this data in a spreadsheet....

Agreed--- visually just looking at the map, one might well assume that Oregon and Washington are Republican states (Although the same could be said of PA/MI/WI/MN for example).

I wasn't that many decades ago (1988/1992) in Oregon, where you would see pockets of blue in Democratic precincts in the smaller cities/towns and occasional rural precincts in Eastern Oregon, including Baker, Umatilla, Union, and Crook counties for example....

Regarding Western Oregon, you saw small spots of Atlas blue in Southern Oregon Republican counties such as Douglas, Curry and Josephine in '00/'04/'08/'12, basically representing the smaller cities that are the largest population centers in those counties....

You would also see some periodic rural Democratic precincts with greater land area pop up speckled throughout that part of the map.

Coastal Oregon would actually look a lot more Atlas Blue, roughly from Coos Bay/North Bend all the way up the Coast line to the Washington border, including some large land area rural precincts...

We would also see pockets of blue representing small mill towns running along the "Eastern Side" of the Willamette Valley (Western slopes of the Cascade Mountain Range), along with some occasional larger land mass rural precincts with Atlas Blue colors....

It is interesting that although Clinton won Oregon with basically the same percentage as Obama '12 the map makes it look much worse...

The devil is in the details, so although the overall election results map is pretty awesome, in some ways it's even richer with the swing map attached, since it provides us with greater context....!!!

I'll let others with greater intimate knowledge of Washington Presidential Election precinct data speak to our great neighbor to the North....

Terrible... would love to see some for the primary as well unless they are already available.

So say we all... ;)

They aren't as complete, but go here (https://rynerohla.com/election-maps/2016-democratic-party-presidential-primaries-gallery/) and here (https://rynerohla.com/election-maps/2016-republican-presidential-primaries-gallery/).

What would be the first thing you'd want to know?

I'm not sure, I would honestly just enjoy poking around for a while, perhaps looking at some census data as well to provide a clearer breakdown on vote by any variety of demographic....

Someone (probably here on Atlas) mentioned that it's called the "Alaska Constitution Party" and that it's the only party with Alaska in its name.

A more interesting shift with Hasidim is in new square, which went from around 90% Republican in the previous elections to over 90% for Clinton. One of the precincts had an incredible 173.85% swing to the Democrats.

I'm shocked to see Trump winning some precincts in South Texas. Considering that's mostly Mexican territory.

Fascinating how the green areas of the South either correlate with closed primary areas (ancestral White Southern Democrats voting against Hillary rather than majority Black areas?) or areas in open primary states where there is presumably either an urban liberal presence or a remaining traditional Democratic loyalty?

Very interesting but hard to see.  Do you know where I can find precincts and townships by looking them up by name?

They might be mexican americans but theres a lot of people whose roots might be in Mexico but family history has been in the area for a long time and apparently dislike illegal immigration. One lesson of 2016 is to not assume that voting patterns are static.

It's very encouraging to see a Democrat realize this.  If the other members of your party acknowledged such things rather than assuming votes simply because of someone's race, the world would be much better place.

It's actually not necessarily that surprising, considering that historically many of the wealthy Tejano  ranchers and landowners are fully complicit in the exploitation of workers in the ranching and farms of South Texas from the beginning of the Republic.

https://thenewinquiry.com/the-chaparral-insurgents-of-south-texas/

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/2002/09/09/daily8.html

https://tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/wmtkn

There are likely better links/articles to discuss the complexity of the Tejano population in South Texas, and although I haven't run the data on the individual precincts that voted for Trump, it is not surprising to see Tejano landowners continuing to back a reactionary and feudalistic social structure, just the same as an Anglo family farm in the Central Valley of California running similar size acreage...

Cesar Chavez actively worked to unionize both, regardless of the historical ancestry of the oppressors.

It seems that this article is down. Do you know of anywhere else where i can see the interactive map?

Here's a precinct swing map.

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https://www.businessinsider.com/2016-electoral-map-trump-clinton-vote-precinct-2017-5

Biggest Trump swings correlated with union job loses; biggest Clinton swings were country clubs.

The shading on this map is perfect since it tells it all. Draw a U from the eastern Dakotas around IA, IL, IN, OH, and western PA and NY (with a notch down through parts of MO/KY), and you get hard Trump swings. Hillary gets cities, the Acela corridor, and non-Cuban Latino areas (I'm not counting Mormon areas for obvious reasons).

This does not bode well for Democrats, since the Latino effect is likely to be specifically against Trump, and almost all of the other Hillary trending areas are in already-blue states. Democrats better hope that the above U was specifically against Hillary.