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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: DavidB. on May 03, 2017, 07:46:57 pm



Title: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: DavidB. on May 03, 2017, 07:46:57 pm
Czechia will hold a legislative election on 20-21 October 2017. The last election took place in October 2013.

Czechia uses proportional representation: 200 MPs are elected in multi-member constituencies. There is a threshold (national level) of 5% for parties and 10% for coalitions.

From 1996 until 2010, the Czech party system was relatively stable. Two large parties, center-right conservative ODS and social democratic ČSSD, competed for the first place and either one of them led the government. There were two mid-sized parties: the Communists (KSČM) and the Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL) -- together, these four parties received over 80% of the parliamentary seats. The 2010 election proved to be somewhat of an earthquake election, however, with the breakthrough of a number of new parties, the Christian Democrats and the governing Greens falling below the 5% threshold, and the loss of support for ODS and ČSSD. Following a corruption scandal the government collapsed and an early election took place in 2013. The seat distribution was as follows:
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/profile_pictures/12683_1493857227.png)
ODS collapsed as opposition leaders ČSSD remained relatively stable, the populist, ideologically vague party ANO led by billionaire Andrej Babiš came second, pro-European centrist liberal TOP 09 lost some support too, the Christian Democrats re-entered parliament with a strong showing, and the right-wing nationalist Dawn of Direct Democracy entered parliament. Following the election, a coalition of ČSSD, ANO and the Christian Democrats was formed, led by Social Democrat Bohuslav Sobotka.

Brace yourselves: current polls look like this. (Disclamer: polls are sometimes unreliable in Czechia).
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/profile_pictures/12683_1493859142.png)
ANO are poised to do very well -- given the fact that quite some parties don't manage to surmount the 5% threshold they would get over 35% of parliamentary seats based on these polls. No small feat given that they have been in the government for four years already, with Babiš as Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. ČSSD have lost some support; ODS, who reached rock bottom in the last election, could only go up; Dawn are dead since Okamura left the party and formed his own SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy, nothing Social Democratic); TOP 09, who relied heavily on Schwarzenberg, have continued bleeding support to ANO.

Given that Babiš is a media tycoon as well, there have been concerns that he would become Czechia's own Berlusconi; for this reason, parliament earlier this year voted for a law that bans "cabinet ministers from owning media firms or more than a quarter of any company pursuing state contracts or European Union subsidies" (the Economist).

I think we have some Czech posters here, so perhaps they could give us some more information on where the parties stand, what they promise, and what kind of policies they expect in the coming years. Contentious issues include corruption and the adoption of the euro with or without referendum (with polls showing about 75% of Czechs currently oppose adopting the euro).


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on May 03, 2017, 07:52:23 pm
those poll numbers make no sense at all.....or the local austrian media is framing the development in a strange way.

seemingly ANO is mixed in some wild corruption allegations....but, looking at those poll numbers, this couldn't have been a good reason for the social democrats to destroy the coalition, since they couldn't win anything anyway......

as long as Babis himself isn't going to be arrested soon, question marks are all i got.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on May 03, 2017, 07:58:22 pm
The coalition did not collapse; this election will be a regular one.


just found a better international article.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-czech-government-idUSKBN17Z17N


and no, seemingly no snap election but the prime minister resigned anyway right now so this is anything but "normal"


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: ˘®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 03, 2017, 07:58:39 pm
What should we make of the persistent communists? They're definititely an abheration in the region.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: DavidB. on May 03, 2017, 08:08:09 pm
@ApatheticAustrian: Sorry, misread your post. Deleted mine.

What should we make of the persistent communists? They're definititely an abheration in the region.
The communists are the barely reformed "incarnation" of the former ruling communist party; some degree of nostalgia continues to exist with certain demographics (mainly the elderly). Eternal opposition does not hurt the party's performance in elections so it seems these people just want to be heard. I imagine it's the same demographic that still votes for Die Linke in East Germany. The communists seem to do best in the northwest (near the German border, in Sudetenland) and in the industrial east.

The Hungarian MSZP were founded in 1989 by the reformist wing of the ruling Communists, and Slovakian Smer's predecessor was founded by communists too, so that leaves Poland as the only country in the region without a party in parliament that has its roots in the communist regime. Perhaps it's just a historical accident that the commies in Czechia continued to stand in elections after communism without reforming?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Tintrlvr on May 04, 2017, 06:47:21 am
@ApatheticAustrian: Sorry, misread your post. Deleted mine.

What should we make of the persistent communists? They're definititely an abheration in the region.
The communists are the barely reformed "incarnation" of the former ruling communist party; some degree of nostalgia continues to exist with certain demographics (mainly the elderly). Eternal opposition does not hurt the party's performance in elections so it seems these people just want to be heard. I imagine it's the same demographic that still votes for Die Linke in East Germany. The communists seem to do best in the northwest (near the German border, in Sudetenland) and in the industrial east.

The Hungarian MSZP were founded in 1989 by the reformist wing of the ruling Communists, and Slovakian Smer's predecessor was founded by communists too, so that leaves Poland as the only country in the region without a party in parliament that has its roots in the communist regime. Perhaps it's just a historical accident that the commies in Czechia continued to stand in elections after communism without reforming?

Isn't the Polish SLD descended in part from the old Communist Party, via the SdrP?

Edit: Forgot they are currently extra-parliamentary. Seems like that is likely temporary, though.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on May 04, 2017, 08:44:29 am
Lived in Prague for a few months in 2015, so have different bits to add to David's great opening posts.

CSSD has been in a more less constant war with Babis during the term together, making constant allegations against him for corruption, getting EU-funds for himself etc. It is really hard to judge how serious the new allegations are. If there is no real smoking gun, then it seems likely that most ANO-voters would simply brush of these allegations as well.

ANO looks likely to be by far the biggest party, but interesting who Babis will prefer as coalition partners and who will want to back him. CSSD will very likely not back a Babis-led coalition, and TOP09 is probably ruled out as well. ODS could be a fairly likely partner, but if their goal is a return as the dominant centre-right party, then legitimizing ANO and Babis might not be the best choice. Perhaps the Christian Democrats, who have allied with the succesful localist party STAN, could be enough, but I actually think cooperation with the Communists or Okamura is not as unlikely as one would think for an ALDE-party with a European Commissioner in their ranks.

There were regional and senate elections last year. They were certainly a loss for CSSD, who lost 10 of the 12 senate seats they were defending and only received 15% in both elections. However, they weren't really a giant victory for ANO. Despite getting 14 candidates through to the second round of the senate elections, they only won 3 seats. Instead, all sorts of local and independent candidates won several seats. And despite topping the polls in 9 of 13 regions, ANO only won 21% nationwide and only ended up with 5 regional governors. Perhaps this just reflected the new ANO party's poor local organization in some places, and that turnout was 33% compared to 60% at the latest general election, but it does suggest the possibility of the general election not being a simple home-run.

Václav Klaus Jr. is running for ODS in Prague.

The Sobotka government has like most of the new CEE governments been critical of the ideas to distribute asylum seekers, but unlike Hungary and Slovakia, they did not vote against it in the European council. Probably a part of Sobotka's plan to court close relations with Germany. Leaked emails by a Russian group even showed that some key advisers around Sobotka tried to tone the migration scepticism further down, but he wisely refrained from that in a country, where the opposition to taking refugees is massive.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on May 04, 2017, 08:48:01 am
What should we make of the persistent communists? They're definititely an abheration in the region.

They have a quite good chance of playing an important role after the elections. Both Babis and Sobotka have stated an willigness to cooperate with them after the election, which also shows how sick and tired they are of each other.

Quote
An unwritten political agreement about keeping the Communist Party out of top-level politics in the Czech Republic may be about to end. Shortly after the ANO party indicated the possibility of entering into a coalition with them following the autumn general election, Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka has said his Social Democrats would also be ready to accept them in a broad coalition government with a pro-European and social perspective. I spoke to political scientist Jiří Pehe about the implications of this development.

http://www.czech.cz/en/%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8/Communists-being-courted-in-political-battle-ahead


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on May 04, 2017, 10:17:13 am
afaik zeman has rejected sobotka's plea to sack Babis cause of the corruption allegations...

is there a bigger power move in play?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on May 04, 2017, 03:07:12 pm
afaik zeman has rejected sobotka's plea to sack Babis cause of the corruption allegations...

is there a bigger power move in play?

Well, Zeman and Sobotka are arch enemies. Zeman tried to orchestrate a coup against Sobotka in CSSD after the 2013 elections, so Michal Hašek could be CSSD leader and PM instead. On the other hand, Zeman has a quite good relationship with Babis, and it's not impossible that Babis could support Zeman's reelection bid in 2018.

It seems quite clear that Zeman will not accept a solution detrimental to Babis and ANO. And if Babis is to accept stepping down as Finance Minister, Sobotka needs to step down as PM as well. Babis suggested he could accept foreign minister Zaoralek as temporary PM with a Babis acolyte as Finance Minister. For Babis it is probably crucial that the Finance Ministry in one way or another stays on his hands, since they would otherwise be best placed to carry out a thorough investigation of his dealings.

It seems like there has also been the leaking of a tape, that suggests that Babis is somewhat involved in the news coverage of a paper owned by Babis' Agrofert. Seems a bit more concrete than all the financial stuff, so perhaps this could actually do some damage to Babis.

Quote
Christian Democrat Jurečka described his junior coalition party as the cool heads in previous coalition flare ups. And that’s a role they could well find themselves having to play again, especially after the release of two recordings in which Andrej Babiš is apparently heard insulting his Social Democrat ministerial colleagues and talking rather underhand political tactics with a reporter from one of the national newspaper’s owned by Babiš’ Agrofert empire. The newspaper later admitted that one of its reporters featured on the tape.

http://www.radio.cz/en/section/curraffrs/pm-bohuslav-sobotka-seeks-more-time-to-solve-government-crisis


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: DavidB. on May 04, 2017, 09:21:31 pm
Forging a coalition with the Communists may seriously hurt ANO's chances of filling the electoral void on the Czech right and replacing the ODS as main party of the Czech right for a longer period of time, though, and ANO have been highly wary of doing anything that can hurt them -- potential members are screened thoroughly and there is a strategy behind everything Babis says in public. I am not sufficiently well-versed in Czech politics to assess whether a coalition (or, perhaps less controversial, outside support deal) between ANO and the Communists is likely and trust you 100% if you say this may be a serious option, but I also think ANO will take into account the above considerations if they have any other options after the election. ANO may already have a majority with the Christian Democrats and either Okamura's SPD or ODS (though, as you said, this will be far from easy too). Things seem to get complicated in any case.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on May 05, 2017, 05:58:09 am
Forging a coalition with the Communists may seriously hurt ANO's chances of filling the electoral void on the Czech right and replacing the ODS as main party of the Czech right for a longer period of time, though, and ANO have been highly wary of doing anything that can hurt them -- potential members are screened thoroughly and there is a strategy behind everything Babis says in public. I am not sufficiently well-versed in Czech politics to assess whether a coalition (or, perhaps less controversial, outside support deal) between ANO and the Communists is likely and trust you 100% if you say this may be a serious option, but I also think ANO will take into account the above considerations if they have any other options after the election. ANO may already have a majority with the Christian Democrats and either Okamura's SPD or ODS (though, as you said, this will be far from easy too). Things seem to get complicated in any case.

There is certainly a quite hard vetting process for candidates and members in ANO, but I'm less sure how prepared and thought through all of Babis' statements are, which is partly why it is hard to predict exactly what he and ANO will do. Babis to me seems more like someone who speaks his mind at the moment, despite it maybe contrasting with things he said previously. Perhaps another reason why Zeman likes him better than the more subdued, technocratic Sobotka. Also it can be hard to gauge how much the significant, strong pro-EU politicians actually affect the party. E.g. ANO EU Commissioner Jourova convinced Babis to back the EU gender quota directive, which was quite surprising. This is hardly a crucially important matter, especially since the directive still hasn't passed in the Council, but it is interesting how much Babis will listen to the likes of Jourova and Telicka. They would certainly prefer a coalition with the more mainstream pro-EU parties, and yes preferably as a standard centre-right party (which one of them could then take over after Babis). However, the question is how much Babis considers these tactical, long-term considerations himself. Whether he intends for his company to continue supporting the party after he's gone, or whether he only looks at how he could become PM, and expects the party to collapse without him anyway.

A support deal with the communists, more likely than coalition, will certainly not be without complications. It is mainly that most of the other mainstream parties have attacked Babis quite relentlessly, so it would be an embarrassing climbdown if they were to help make him PM. The Christian Democrats are his best shot, but even Belobradek and him have taken their battles in public. And if they are not enough for a majority, I really do think that Communists or Okamura could be his second best possibility. Those two parties arguably don't even differ much in rhetoric and policy goals; the horseshoe political spectre etc. Okamura might be more palatable to Babis and his voters as a fellow business man, but on the other hand, he is quite a loose cannon, so the old and calm Communist party would probably be a much more stable partner. Babis has not been afraid to make policy compromises, excessively so according to TOP09 and ODS, who (not wrongly) states that the current government has mostly carried through CSSD policy. So I don't think he will be hesitate to make significant policy concessions to get one of them on board. And his career does suggest that he is not afraid of working with current or previous communists to get what he wants, although of course the exact nature of his KGB and StB connections is another point of frequent political and legal discussion between Babis and his opponents.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on May 05, 2017, 06:07:05 am
It seems like the Zeman-Sobotka meeting yesterday was quite something. Zeman's analysis in the second quote is of course quite accurate, but claiming that only Sobotka, and not Babis, should leave the government is quite sublime trolling.

(https://media.novinky.cz/147/611473-top_foto1-dhmys.jpg?1493974808)

Quote
PRAGUE – It’s no secret that Czech President Milos Zeman is not a fan of Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka. But what happened on Thursday surpassed anything that had happened between them in the past and shocked the country. Sobotka arrived at Prague Castle, the seat of the presidency, on Thursday for consultations with the president following his decision to resign with his government over the business dealings of his finance minister. Sobotka had announced earlier in the day that he would formally submit his resignation later in the month.

But on arrival, Sobotka was told to make a statement to the media. As the premier looked confused, Zeman pointed to a microphone with his walking stick. “Ladies and gentlemen, I’m really not sure what to speak about,” Sobotka said, adding he had come to talk to the president. Zeman, though, had more to say. In an apparent deliberate act of humiliation, he told Sobotka he was accepting his resignation. He thanked Sobotka for his work and asked the government to remain in place until he appoints a new prime minister. “I’m not here to resign,” a visibly shaken Sobotka replied. “I expected to hold standard talks with the president.”

The scene was broadcast live by public television. Zeman told him to blame his office for informing him too late about a change in the premier’s plan. Sobotka originally planned to resign this week. The president also told Sobotka he was not ready to meet him over the issue again. “This ceremony is final and I can see no reason to repeat it again,” he said, and left. Sobotka remained to tell reporters the scene had been unnecessary. “This is Czech politics, I’m afraid,” he said, adding that he would submit his resignation later, by letter. He then left to join Zeman for private talks – the contents of which the assembled media could only guess at.

“It was quite an unusual manifestation of arrogance toward the prime minister,” analyst Kamil Svec commented on Czech public television

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/may/04/czech-president-accepts-pms-unoffered-resignation/

Quote
It is absurd to change dramatically the government lineup six months before the regular election, Zeman said. "With some minor exceptions, the government should remain in the same lineup. Sobotka is the only one who should be replaced," he added. Zeman said Sobotka had decided to leave in his own right, while the rest of the ministers should continue "with some minor exceptions."

A man capable of gaining the trust of the Chamber of Deputies should be the new prime minister, Zeman said. "Zaoralek can be expected to gain it because his support may cut across the coalition government parties. Chovanec may be blocked by ANO," he added.

Zeman said the government's resignation announced by Sobotka earlier this week was an act of his desperation caused by the Social Democrats' falling preferences. "It is cowardly, leaving the fight instead of fighting when the election is to be held soon," he added.

http://www.praguemonitor.com/2017/05/05/zeman-sobotka-should-leave-government


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on May 06, 2017, 06:09:28 am
Just to back up the potential Babis + Communists/Okamura deal, Czech political analyst Jiri Pehe states in this article about Babis "Yet he has little interest in foreign policy. "The greatest danger is if Babis becomes prime minister and then leaves the foreign ministry to a coalition partner from the nationalist right or the communists," states Pehe. "Babis is not interested in foreign policy, and he doesn't understand it." As stated previously, I think support is more likely than coalition, but cooperation is considered a clear possibility. Perhaps those, like Pehe, who are largely opposed to Babis, are a bit more interested to talk up the chances of this happening though. As another prove of what a terrible, ruthless fellow, they believe he is.

Babis' relation to the other main stream parties can be summed up by a February quote where he, in response to what he claims is a cover-up of previous corruption, stated that "The Czech Palermo has won again. These are the parties behind the corruption, the CSSD, the ODS and the master of corruption, mr Kalousek (TOP09 leader)". Fiala, ODS leader, responded that Babis was the "consigliere" of Czech politics, and the person with the most dirty dealings in the Czech Republic during the last 25 years. Again, notable that the Christian Democrats were omitted by Babis, suggesting that they are an acceptable coalition partner. His view of Kalousek is one many in the country share, umprompted I have heard several people state that "he has a pot of hidden corruption money for himself somewhere". He is certainly the main culprit if TOP 09 fails to get above the threshold. Interesting that the Pirates are getting fairly close to the threshold, perhaps some of the disappointed highly educated urban types from TOP 09 are turning pirate.

http://www.dw.com/en/czech-government-shakeup-raises-questions-on-foreign-policy/a-38704727


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: DavidB. on May 08, 2017, 07:13:30 pm
Thank you for your great posts in this thread, Diouf.

There is certainly a quite hard vetting process for candidates and members in ANO, but I'm less sure how prepared and thought through all of Babis' statements are, which is partly why it is hard to predict exactly what he and ANO will do. Babis to me seems more like someone who speaks his mind at the moment, despite it maybe contrasting with things he said previously.
You're absolutely right, I should have worded my post differently: most of what Babis says is probably made up on the spot, but the party has an excellent PR machine to spin it as if it is coherent and makes sense.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on May 15, 2017, 05:52:44 am
It seems like the current government crisis is mainly crystallizing support for and against Babis; there is little evidence that ANO is losing support over this.

According to a Median poll, 25% believe Babis is to blame for the current government crisis while 27% put the blame on Sobotka. 41% blame them equally. Looking at the preferred path of action now, 37% believe Babis should be dismissed from the government without delay, while 18% believe he should not be dismissed no matter what. 37% support the path laid out by Zeman, which is to go to the Constitutional Court to determine whether Zeman is obliged to follow the constitution and obey Sobotka's wishes regarding the Babis sacking, or whether Sobotka's breach of the government pact in dismissing ministers from other parties without their consent means that Zeman does not have to follow Sobotka's wish.

Babis is playing the role of the responsible statesman, and argues that he can't see a reason to break the government pact of "one of the most successful governments since the Velvet Revolution". He is now proposing that his acolyte, deputy Finance Minister Alena Schillerova, takes over; something which CSSD so far rejects. Sobotka might prefer not to break the government pact directly, as this would likely lead to snap elections and probably no real possibility to make a credible investigation of Babis' financial dealings. However, it is hard to see what else could happen unless Sobotka makes a humiliating backtrack.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/05/15/zeman-ready-appoint-schillerov%C3%A1-finance-minister


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on May 17, 2017, 11:29:38 am
Communists push for no-confidence vote, but right wing opposition wants to keep government afloat

Quote
The KSCM has been collecting deputies' signatures in support for convoking an extraordinary session of the Chamber of Deputies. To explain the effort, KSCM chairman Vojtech Filip says constitutional officials have ceased to communicate with each other in a normal way. He may be alluding to a rift between Sobotka's CSSD and Babis's ANO and between the CSSD and President Milos Zeman, who is reluctant to sack Babis.

The right-wing opposition parties, however, do not plan to join the KSCM's effort to push-through a no-confidence vote. Both TOP 09 and the Civic Democrats (ODS) said after their deputies groups' separate meetings on Tuesday that the toppling of the government would enhance President Zeman's position amid the government crisis, which they do not wish.

Deputies for the minor opposition Dawn movement took a reserved stance on the KSCM's plan and said they will wait for Zeman's next steps before deciding on whether to support the KSCM's initiative.

A no-confidence motion of course matters little if Babis and Sobotka finds a solution to the government crisis, but so far Sobotka has not accepted Babis' proposed alternatives as Finance Minister. This means that if the government crisis is not solved, Sobotka could conceivably sack all ANO-ministers and continue with a Social Democrat-Christian Democrat minority government without getting a vote of no-confidence. ANO + Communists + Dawn only has 87 out of 200 seats in parliament currently. Zeman would try to delay such a step, but in the end I believe the Constitutional Court will tell him to accept the dismissals. A bit surprising that TOP 09 and ODS would not support a no-confidence motion in a government they have criticized so heavily during its term. This obviously confirms Babis' narrative that all the establishment parties are out to get him. I wonder whether TOP 09 and ODS, in such a scenario, would not be better served by taking the government down, and hope they can gain a bit by dismissing CSSD and ANO as irresponsible parties. They must hope that such a minority government could find enough dirt on Babis in a few months to severely damage him. However, I think it needs to be really strong evidence if Babis would not be able to simply reject this as another establishment collusion against him.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/05/17/pm-govt-would-survive-no-confidence-vote-if-taken


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on May 17, 2017, 03:00:18 pm
Agreement on new Finance Minister - coalition crisis called off

(http://img.blesk.cz/img/1/normal620/3438439_andrej-babis-ivan-pilny-ministerstvo-financi-ministr-financi-v1.jpg?v=1)

PM Sobotka accepted Babis' third bid as his possible replacement in the Finance Ministry, the leader of the Deputy Chamber's Economic Committee Ivan Pilny.  He was the head of Microsoft’s Czech operations in the 1990s, and has enjoyed a couple of succesful stints in other technology companies. Therefore he was part of a TV show where succesfull entrepreneurs give advice and potentially money to new start-ups, one of many national spin-offs of the Japanese Dragons' Den program. Later Dawn leader Tomio Okamura was another of the experts.

Pilny is less of an obvious acolyte, and as another former businessman, he might think more independently. However, I would still be suprised if one of the highest-ranking ANO members in parliament will now go hard after Babis, but I guess we will se about this. TOP 09 Kalousek is clearly disappointed, and states that Sobotka has unneccesarily lost to Zeman and Babis. ODS leader Fiala states that while it's positive for Babis to leave the government, Pilny will change little.

I have quite a hard time understanding much of what Sobotka has done in this whole process. Broad translation of political analyst Vilem Besser: "Babiš can laugh. Sobotka finally gave up the fight for the Finance Ministy and backed off. Gone is the Bohuslav Sobotka of the past days, a powerful prime minister who makes it clear that he is the boss.  Returned has the scared Prime Minister, who does not want to argue with anyone and, especially in battles with Andrey Babiš, retreats to his corner and lets his Deputy Prime Minister do what he wants. This time, Sobotka can not complain about anyone else because he gave up the fight. Many were amazed by the vigorous PM, who resisted attacks from ANO. Also he played a balanced match with President Zeman, and even seemed to have gotten into the lead. Until Wednesday's press conference, that is. Here he accepted Ivan Pilný, and apologized for this cowardly act by saying Pilny was a rebel in ANO with no ties to Agrofert and Babis. However, precisely Pilny's status as a rebel raises questions. Why is Pilny the only MP in ANO who can afford to criticize leaders in the movement without costing him his political career? It is certainly not because he is independent of Babiš".

http://www.politico.eu/article/czech-pm-accepts-new-finance-minister-to-end-government-split/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication

http://forum24.cz/babis-se-smeje-sobotka-definitivne-vzdal-boj-o-ministerstvo-financi-a-couva/


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Nanwe on May 17, 2017, 03:57:11 pm
Hey guys. I'm not sure if this goes here and it's indeed off topic. But in any case I'm currently mapping the two Czechoslovak elections of 1990 and 1992 both at the federal and the republic (CNR/SNR) level at both okres and constituency level. However, I haven't been able to find any data from the Slovak side on the two federal elections (for either SL or SN chamber) online, so I was hoping some of you might know where to look or just help me out a bit., just send me a private message :)

To clarify, the data for the 1990 and 1992 SNR elections is online, but AFAIK not for the federal election beyond the republic-wide sum.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on June 03, 2017, 09:41:09 am
Babis courts Christian Democrats, rules out Communists and attacks three old parties, especially Kalousek and TOP09. So it seems that if he can't get a majority with the Christian Democrats alone, he will look straight toward Okamura.

Quote
Babis said he did not want to anticipate how the government-forming negotiations between parties would develop after the elections. He said he knows that the other parties may try to form a coalition government without ANO even if ANO wins the elections. A similar situation happened in some Czech regions after the regional elections last autumn ANO ended up in opposition, although it won. "There is the risk that they will all stand against us," said Babis, who is considered the second richest businessman in the country.

Babis, who founded ANO in 2012, said the political veterans who lead the CSSD, TOP 09 and the Civic Democrats (ODS) were responsible for many of the bad things in the country.

He said the talks about a future government would depend on who would lead the negotiations on behalf of individual parties. Babis said the alliance of the KDU-CSL and Mayors and Independents (STAN) had a good programme and ANO's possible cooperation with the KDU/STAN alliance would depend on the negotiators.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/06/02/babi%C5%A1-ano-not-form-govt-top-09-communists


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: FredLindq on June 04, 2017, 06:45:27 am
If Babis allies with Okamura, would not ALDE kick ANO out?!


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on June 04, 2017, 11:15:50 am
If Babis allies with Okamura, would not ALDE kick ANO out?!

Very small chance of that, I would think. I think ALDE considers ANO quite a "good catch" considering their likely role as the biggest party in the Czechia. Fico, Orban etc. are easily tolerated in their respective parties. Verhofstadt recently tried to court Grillo into joining ALDE, so it seems unlikely that anyone would be thrown out simply for cooperating with someone like Okamura.

And really what kind of radical measures could Okamura push a Babis government into doing? If his new party lasts longer than his previous, so he even manages to get some influence. In Western European countries, there is much more potential for actual, radical change on non-western immigration. In a country like Czechia even a Muslim ban would hardly make much difference. The most significant change, he could push is perhaps something on direct democracy and more FPTP-like elections of mayors. But that probably requires constitutional change if it is not just to be incredibly low turnout circus referenda.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on June 15, 2017, 11:49:27 am
Sobotka quits as CSSD leader, stays as PM until election

After a poor handling of the self-started government crisis and poor opinion polls, with one recent survey having CSSD down in 4th place, the leader of the Social Democrats Bohuslav Sobotka has resigned. Foreign minister Lubomir Zaoralek will lead the party's election campaign while Interior Minister Milan Chovanec will take over duties running the party. Sobotka says he will stay as PM until the election.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on June 23, 2017, 09:33:16 am
ODS says ANO's presence in future gov't unacceptable

Not really surprising that ODS reject playing with Babis. They have often been on the receiving end of his attacks as one of the "three corrupt" parties at the heart of CZ politics. So as expected, ANO's coalition possibilities seem limited to Christian Democrats and the parties on each far wing. The mix of the two will not be easy. And while ANO has been rising to above 30% in recent polls, being clearly the biggest party, polls continue to show Okamura sometimes below the 5% threshold and Christian Democrats/STAN below the 10% threshold for alliances.

Quote
Andrej Babis as well as his ANO movement is unacceptable in the incumbent and in any future government, Petr Fiala, chairman of the rightist opposition Civic Democratic Party (ODS), told CTK today.

He criticised Babis, a billionaire and former finance minister who was dismissed in May over his alleged suspicious business deals and suspected influencing of the media he owned, for failing to fulfil his promises while in the ministerial post. "It is always dangerous in politics, if something is valid in the morning, but not in the evening," Fiala said.

Unlike Babis, who only makes promises to people, the ODS offers a real programme to benefit people, Fiala said. He said the ODS, a former government member, which is now the most popular rightist party, wants to be pushing for raising defence spending to 2 percent of GDP, the acceleration of military purchases and a better recruitment of soldiers and police.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/06/23/ods-says-anos-presence-future-govt-unacceptable


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: DavidB. on June 23, 2017, 10:19:12 am
Thanks for your updates, Diouf. If these parties (or even either of them...) don't reach the threshold, this can become surprisingly difficult. I don't understand why the Christian Democrats wanted an alliance. Just find another solution to cooperate while not having to pass the 10% threshold.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Kingpoleon on June 25, 2017, 01:11:47 pm
Personally, I'm rooting for a ČSSD-TOP 09-KDU-ČSL-SPD coalition. ANO needs some reformism and to stop picking so many fights with the President before I would prefer them.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on June 26, 2017, 11:47:20 am
Personally, I'm rooting for a ČSSD-TOP 09-KDU-ČSL-SPD coalition. ANO needs some reformism and to stop picking so many fights with the President before I would prefer them.

The first three you mention could probably agree to a coalition with each other, but the problem is of course that they would be far from a majority. I don't understand the inclusion of SPD; I don't think any of the parties would prefer to work with Okamura. It would be a last attempt to prevent Babis from becoming PM, but I can't see such a strange cooperation happen. Also, the four of them would not even have a majority according to most polls.

I don't really understand your last line, especially because Babis has a quite good relationship with President Zeman compared to many other leading politicians.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Kingpoleon on June 26, 2017, 06:47:06 pm
Babiš's party in general has been a little too prone to fighting Zeman. Babiš and Zeman both have unfortunate ties to Russia, as well.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on July 07, 2017, 06:34:30 am
There is some apprehension in the Christian Democrats around the alliance with STAN, since many polls show them just below the 10% threshold for alliances. A few regional party leaders and senators have stated that they should instead just let some STAN candidates run on their list (which I'm not sure STAN would accept). However, both KDU-CSL leader Pavel Belobradek and STAN leader Petr Gazdik stand firm and refer to the electoral advantage of being a larger party, both in terms of its influence and because the electoral system slightly favours bigger parties. They try to cast themselves as the sensible, localist, non-extremist party. They even explicitly warn against the dangers of a ANO-Communist pact. This does not seem like a bad pitch to make, so I have some confidence that they will make it, but we can only wait and see.

Quote
The coalition of the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and the Mayors and Independents (STAN) will continue, the heads of the two parties said on Tuesday after a KDU-CSL board meeting that talked about opinion polls indicating that the coalition would fail in elections. The general election is due on October 20-21. The KDU-CSL is a junior government party, STAN is an opposition movement. Four different polls conducted last month indicated that the KDU/STAN alliance would win from 7.5 to 9 percent of the vote, while a two-party alliance needs at least 10 percent to enter the Chamber of Deputies. If the KDU-CSL ran alone, it would comfortably cross the 5-percent barrier for individual parties, the polls showed.

"We have a few more months and we are ready for it," KDU-CSL leader Pavel Belobradek told journalists. The situation is a challenge for the alliance to show that it is a force that is worth to be win people's support, Belobradek said. Belobradek said the coalition has not yet launched the intensive campaigning and voters still do not know its programme and candidates well.

Gazdik said voters still do not understand why the two parties made an election pact. He said parties that win over 10 percent of the vote get markedly more mandates than the smaller ones because the electoral system is more advantageous for bigger parties. If people do not want Babis to rule the country together with some extremist party, for example the Communists (KSCM), they should support the KDU/STAN coalition, Gazdik said. The polls showed that ANO and the KSCM would be able to form a government if elections were held now.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/07/07/kdu-%C4%8Dsl-stan-confirm-their-coalition-despite-unfavourable-polls


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on July 26, 2017, 01:39:20 pm
The circus of Czech politics continue. Earlier this week, a majority in the Christian Democrat leadership decided, against the wishes of leader Pavel Belobradek, to terminate its electoral alliance with STAN and instead offer them some positions on the Christian Democrat lists. An offer STAN has now rejected, so both parties are now running on their own. The two last polls showed the alliance on 9.9% and 10.5% respectively...

Quote
A crushing majority of the Mayors and Independents' (STAN) national committee is for the movement running independently in the Czech general election to be held on October 20-21, its chairman Petr Gazdik said after the committee's meeting in the Chamber of Deputies on Tuesday

STAN reacts to the decision of the KDU-CSL from last week to change the form of their cooperation from the previously agreed election coalition to some STAN candidates running on the KDU-CSL's lists. The STAN leadership rejected the offered places on the KDU-CSL's lists of candidates to preserve its own identity, Gazdik added. The movement has already informed Belobradek on the result of Tuesday's talks by phone.

The voter support for STAN is about 2 percent only, according to opinion polls. "STAN will go to the election solo... We refuse to be part of the business with public opinion polls and to be accused of wasting voter support, gambling with the votes and contributing to the victory of Andrej Babis (chairman of ANO, the election favourite)," Gazdik said. He said STAN would like to address 250,000 voters who had supported it in the regional election last autumn if it decided to run independently. "This is the 5 percent in the national election that we would need in such a case," he said.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/07/26/stan-wants-run-independently-general-elections


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on August 11, 2017, 01:43:23 pm
Police asks parliament to release Babis for prosecution!

Interesting to see whether this new step will change anything for Babis and ANO. I would tend to think the effect would be negligible as the case has been known for long and is not completely clear. But perhaps the authority of the police means that this request for prosecution will hurt him more than some of the other cases.

Quote
The Czech police have asked the Chamber of Deputies to release government ANO chairman Andrej Babis and ANO deputy group head Jaroslav Faltynek for prosecution, Chamber chairman Jan Hamacek (Social Democrats, CSSD) tweeted today. The media have reported that the ANO politicians are prosecuted on suspicion of the unauthorised drawing of an EU subsidy for the Capi hnizdo farm in central Bohemia.

Babis said the police request is an attempt by the political system to liquidate him. "This is the last desperate attempt of the corrupt system to liquidate me and a long-planned operation aimed to criminalise me," Babis told daily Pravo."The timing is clear, it is an attempt to influence the elections," he said.

The prosecution of an MP requires the consent of the parliamentary house of which they are members. If either the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate denies the consent, the prosecution is impossible throughout the duration of the mandate. The police can possibly accuse them after the mandate expires.

The moral code of the ANO movement says its members will not apply their deputy or senator's immunity in case of criminal prosecution and they will ask the relevant committee to immediately propose their release for prosecution. The sole exception is possible prosecution for political statements made on parliament soil.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/08/11/police-seek-mps-babi%C5%A1-falt%C3%BDneks-release-prosecution


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: SunriseAroundTheWorld on August 11, 2017, 01:55:13 pm
Sounds like ANO is in for a not-so-fun time in the near future.

I think I'll be backing TOP 09 in these elections. I'm still wary of ODS after all of the events that led to their 2013 election collapse.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: mgop on August 29, 2017, 06:35:37 am
why two-day election?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on September 06, 2017, 11:43:29 am
Babis stripped of immunity today. Once re-elected in a month time, parliament would have to vote again to strip immunity again.

Quote
Czech Lawmakers Vote to Force PM Candidate Babis to Face Fraud Charges

PRAGUE — The Czech parliament's lower house voted on Wednesday to allow police to bring charges against Andrej Babis, the leading candidate to become prime minister after an election next month, in a case involving suspected abuse of European Union subsidies.

Babis, a billionaire businessman and founder of the ANO movement, denies any wrongdoing. He has repeatedly called the police actions against him a political ploy meant to hurt him in the Oct. 20-21 election.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/09/06/world/europe/06reuters-czech-politics-babis.html?partner=IFTTT


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 05, 2017, 12:39:55 pm
Helpful academics from the Charles University are making a rolling polling average here: http://kdovyhrajevolby.cz/

With the wildy differing polls with different ways of showing their results, this is a great tool.

Babis and ANO are still far ahead in the polls with CSSD and KSCM in distant second and third positions.

It seems like Tomio Okamura's new outfit SPD will end above the threshold despite a plethora of right-wing parties running (and most established parties also very opposed to non-Western migration). SPD is at 7,64% in the polling average. Svobodni (Free Citizens) with MEP Petr Mach is closest to the threshold of the small right-wing parties. Svobodni is a libertarian party with a strong Eurosceptic and anti-immigration message. Nigel Farage participated in a few of their events. Several other parties cover the spectrum from far-right to out-right nazi; e.g. Bloc Against Islamization, Czech National Front, Realists, Workers' Party of Social Justice.

The Czech Pirate Party is above the 5%-threshold, largely due to a significant support from young and urban voters. The Pirates finished first in the secondary school election this week, where they received 24.5% of the votes. ANO and TOP09 both over 10%, while big, old parties like KDU-CSL, KSCM and CSSD all received less than 4%. The main talking points of the Pirates are transparency, opposition corruption, less surveillance etc. Party leader Ivan Bartos has also criticized Babis' biggest achievement, the electronic registration of sales (EET), which he believes is not a good solution for "online shops and small entrepreneurs".


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: ˘®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 09, 2017, 03:07:48 pm
Babis has formally been charged.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 12, 2017, 09:17:32 am
Voting Intention according to age groups

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DL4BBs4WsAEWByJ.jpg:large)

Likely Voters aged 18-24

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DL382mgW4AAh7VL.jpg)

Likely Voters aged 65+
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DL394OOWAAUfd4-.jpg:large)

Voter movement since 2013

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DL3-ap-W4AArUtN.jpg:large)


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 12, 2017, 09:52:48 am
As the above voter movement shows, 22% of 2013 CSSD will now vote for ANO. Additionally ANO also attracts a lot of 2013 non-voters, particularly people with lower education,. The former non-voters make up more than one fifth of its current support.

Babis have warned against other parties trying to form a anti-ANO government, particularly aiming at TOP09 leader Miroslav Kalousek. "Kalousek is trying to form an anti-Babis government. He is trying to make his cabinet of traditional political parties. He scares people with nonsense without having a single piece of evidence to prove [his assertion about] ANO as a threat to democracy. I don't know how we could be threatening democracy." As the red line for government negotiations, Babis mentions maintaining the systems of the electronic registration of sales (EET) and the ledger statements. He said that there were good people in different parties with whom he could negotiate with, so he might be hoping for a post-election revolt in CSSD or ODS, which could bring about a new leader willing to talk to him. He also explicitly mentions the Pirates as a possible government partner:"I would have no problem [governing] with them. Let them be in charge of IT and digitisation, which is their strong side. Let them show how they will put things in order for the Czech Republic to become like Estonia, where people do not have to turn up at authorities personally". The Pirates have not closed the door completely, but says that coalition with Babis is very unlikely.

It has been announced that MEP Pavel Telička, who was the lead member for ANO in the 2014 European elections, is no longer affiliated to the party. He has a leading role in ALDE in the EP, but his disagreements with Babis has been clear for a while, particularly on European and Foreign policy.

ODS have again warned about a potential ANO, Communists, Okamura coalition after the elections, and that this would be "a fall to the political bottom and the worst threat to Czech democracy since 1989". Babis previously said he wouldn't form a cabinet with the Communists, but it could potentially be his last resort.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/10/11/ano-seeks-election-result-preventing-birth-anti-ano-govt


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 16, 2017, 06:56:57 am
Today is the last day that pollsters can announce their results before the election. The final average from the researchers at Charles University is as follows:

ANO 26.18% (67 seats)
CSSD 13.13% (32)
KSCM 11.58% (27)
ODS 9.36% (20)
SPD 8.51% (18)
Pirates 6.98% (15)
TOP09 6.42% (11)
KDU-CSL 5.37% (10)
STAN 3.69% (0)
Greens 3% (0)
Free Citizens 2.25% (0)
Realists 0.98% (0)

ANO is still the clear front-runner, although they have dropped a bit over the last few months. Behind ANO, the picture is very fragmented, although the Social Democrats are bit ahead in the battle for 2nd. If one of the party leaders catches fire as the "anti-Babis" option in the last days, then that could potentially boost one of the parties by a lot, but there does not seem to be any obvious candidate for this. Many voters are still doubting their choice, and with a turnout that was only around 60% in 2013, mobilization of new voters could also make a big difference. It looks like the battle of the threshold will be intense. STAN is getting surprisingly close on its own, while the Christian Democrats looks likely to just make it. The Pirates need a strong youth vote to take their spots in parliament, while Okamura looks to have won the battle among the many far-right parties.

It still looks like Babis will need at least two parties to support him; the ANO-Communist-SPD option, which he has publicly rejected but the other parties keep warning about,  has a majority(112 seats out of 200). Babis hopes that there will be a revolution on one or more of the other parties after the election, but it is very hard to judge how likely this is. The best bid is perhaps ODS where current leader Petr Fiala has been very critical of Babis and basically ruled out cooperation, but perhaps Vaclav Klaus Jr could take control of the party, which would make cooperation more likely. Such a shift could perhaps open up for a "logical" ANO-ODS government, including or supported by SPD. President Zeman might try again to initate a riot in his former party CSSD, but after the failed attempt in 2013 and his increasingly hostile attitude towards Sobotka as PM, that looks less likely. However, even if coalition building looks difficult for Babis, it looks even more difficult to form one without him. The weird establishment option (CSSD, ODS, TOP09, KDU-CSL) is far from a majority (83 seats) and would be almost unworkable. Similarly a centre-leftish (KDU-CSL, CSSD, Pirates, Communists) majority looks far away (84), and would be extremely hard to navigate as well.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Singletxguyforfun on October 16, 2017, 08:11:53 pm
I talked to my girlfriend who lives in the Czech earlier today and the election came up. She's pretty certain that the right will win, falling in line with recent trends through out all of Europe. Both of us are just waiting for the Commies to completely fall out in a few years since her family has a personal vendetta against them going back Husak in the 1980s


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: ˘®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 16, 2017, 09:11:03 pm
I'm guessing she's counting ANO as a right party?

Also does your "girlfriend" know about your username?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Singletxguyforfun on October 16, 2017, 09:22:21 pm
I'm guessing she's counting ANO as a right party?

Also does your "girlfriend" know about your username?

Yeah ANO is center right i think. And my user name is a reference to a guy on To Catch a Predator, Ive been in a relationship for 2 years actually so im not single and not from Texas. But he is also named Singletxguyforfun. You hear it and think he'd be a ripped ranch dude but he comes in and hes a fat awkward guy. If you have time, definitely watch. It's hilarious! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtHSujS7Vdc

Start at 6:00 for the best part


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 17, 2017, 03:51:22 am
Some media outlets have speculated whether Babis can convince one of the mainstream parties to cooperation with the "Pilný-model"; i.e. Babis not leading or being part of the government himself. The most talked about option is Environment Minister Richard Brabec, who was previously a manager in the chemical industry; some of the time in Babis companies.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 18, 2017, 12:17:42 pm
Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 18, 2017, 04:08:16 pm
Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?

Well, the general economic ideology seems relatively centrist, despite Babis talk of ruling as a "business man". ANO has largely accepted a Social Democrat policy with many wage increases and many public investments, the booming Czech economy has also meant that there haven't been a lot of pressure to make "tough decisions". In fact, several business have started to talk about a lack of workers, and Babis have suggested bringing in Eastern European workers, which several parties have attacked him on in recent days. I would think the economic policies of a future ANO-led cabinet will depend a lot on the coaliton partner. Babis main focus have been the EET, the electronic registration of all transactions of companies to avoid fraud. He will probably insist on keeping and expanding that system. He also wants a new VAT system to fight fraud better, but that probably needs a European consensus.

On immigration, he is, like most parties, very critical of non-western immigration, especially the EU refugee quotas. He is against a swift introduction of the euro, but is otherwise not that Eurosceptic, and underlines the economic benefits of the cooperation.

Like most protest movements, he also has a lot of big plans on how to make democracy better, abolish Senate, introduce FPTP, stronger executive etc.. If ANO ends up relying on Pirates or SPD, there might actually be some changes to the democratic system, although hopefully any small coalition partner will avoid a move to an unfair electoral system.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 20, 2017, 04:38:53 am
So polls are open from today 14.00-22.00 and tomorrow from 08.00-14.00.

The offical result page is here: https://volby.cz/

CTK television coverage should be here and currently works for me: http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

Additional coverage can be found at major newspapers like Blesk(tabloid) http://www.blesk.cz/ DNES(serious, centre-right, owned by Babis' Agrofert) http://zpravy.idnes.cz/ and the centre left (Pravo/Novinky): https://www.novinky.cz/



Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on October 20, 2017, 04:54:33 am
So polls are open from today 14.00-22.00 and tomorrow from 08.00-14.00.
What a bizarre way of setting poll opening hours.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 20, 2017, 07:38:26 am
Babis the first of the main players to cast his vote shortly after the polls open.

(http://img.ct24.cz/onlinePrenos/p201710200617501.jpg)


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 20, 2017, 09:52:59 am
Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?

Vague populist bullsh!t.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Heat on October 20, 2017, 10:24:12 am
Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?

Vague populist bullsh!t.
Berlusconism, but with fewer beautiful women.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on October 21, 2017, 04:41:22 am
Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?

Vague populist bullsh!t.
Berlusconism, but with fewer beautiful women.


Dear lord, third person from Poland on atlas.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on October 21, 2017, 04:57:34 am
Where does ANO actually stand ideologically? I get that they're one of these "movements" that have been popular lately, but is it more of a Kurz type thing or a Macron type thing? Or neither?

Vague populist bullsh!t.
Berlusconism, but with fewer beautiful women.


Dear lord, third person from Poland on atlas.
Ah.commers are taking over Atlas :P


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 05:16:20 am
Turnout seems up so far and is expected to be in the low-mid sixties. It was 59.48% in 2013. If it ends above 64.47%, it will be the highest turnout since 1998.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 06:35:02 am
A half hour to polls close, and election coverage starts now. No polls in the last days, but it seemed like SPD and Pirates both had quite a lot of momentum during the campaign, and both parties have probably helped push turnout up. ANO faded somewhat during the election, so it would be interesting to see where they end up.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 07:14:35 am
It seems like there is no exit poll, but Nova has published this ordinary STEM poll from yesterday

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMqQwk2XUAAp5Ad.jpg:large)

SPD could become 2nd biggest party, CSSD drops to 4th while both KDU-CSL and TOP09 will fight against the threshold.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 07:30:47 am
The first result from the Pisek region in southern Czechia from one of the smallest polling places.

CSSD 5 votes
TOP09 5
KSCM 4
ANO 4
Pirates 1
SPD 1
ODS 1
STAN 1

Other smaller polling places are beginning to come in, although since none of the websites I'm looking at, is starting from a prognosis or exit poll, the results shown are only the currently counted, so will fluctuate a lot here in the beginning


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 07:40:22 am
Poll, would you like Babis as PM

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMqYUDOW0AEfPhY.jpg:large)

48% against, 47% for


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Double Carpet on October 21, 2017, 07:53:21 am
Well the official results page looks like it's crashed :(


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 07:57:15 am
Well the official results page looks like it's crashed :(

These two works for me, although still very few votes countes

https://zpravy.aktualne.cz/domaci/volby/vysledky-voleb-do-poslanecke-snemovny-2017/r~191f2eecb57c11e7a9d00025900fea04/?redirected=1508588667#

http://www.blesk.cz/volby-do-poslanecke-snemovny-2017


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Double Carpet on October 21, 2017, 08:06:55 am
Thanks!

Also this one:

http://volby.idnes.cz/

So it's currently Babis, Okamura, Communists, Pirates as top 4.

Traditional big 2 of CSSD & ODS both under 10%.

TOP09 are below threshold and wonder if that's now curtains for them.

If Babis wants a 2-party govt are we looking at ANO + SPD?

Just out of interest, does anyone know why the Czechs vote over 2 days?

Thanks


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 08:10:43 am
There is still barely any votes from Prague counted, which should give a lot of support to Pirates, ODS and TOP09, so I still think the latter has a decent chance as my understanding is that the sites are only aggregating counted votes, not making a projection. Both yes, looks terrible for CSSD


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 08:34:30 am
2,43% counted in Prague. ANO at 20%, Pirates at 18, ODS at 15, TOP09 at 13.

TOP09 at 3,82 nationally now while STAN is at 5,06. They could very well move past each other as more urban votes come in


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: parochial boy on October 21, 2017, 08:38:32 am
Quick question - as I understand it, alot of immigration into the wealthier Eastern European countries (inc Czechia) is from Ukraine.

When people talk about ANO or the likes of SPD being anti-immigrant, does that generally extent to Ukrainians? or are we very much talking about refugee crisis/Muslim immigration?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 08:53:32 am
Quick question - as I understand it, alot of immigration into the wealthier Eastern European countries (inc Czechia) is from Ukraine.

When people talk about ANO or the likes of SPD being anti-immigrant, does that generally extent to Ukrainians? or are we very much talking about refugee crisis/Muslim immigration?

The three biggest groups of foreigners in Czechia are Ukrainians, Slovakians and Vietnamese. The two first each have around 110.000 persons, while the latter is around 55.000. So not counting Slovakiains, Ukrainian and Vietnamese make up the biggest group of foreign workers.

Babis has talked about the need for more Eastern European workers, which especially CSSD and the Communists have criticized. I haven't seen SPD comment, but with Okamura being a business man with a foreign heritage, I would think that he would not be much opposed to the idea. However, most parties and inhabitants are strongly against Muslim immigration. Okamura with the most radical language and most focus on the issue.(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMkbMkYUQAAlrg0.jpg)


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 08:58:26 am
With 58% counted, STAN is at 5,01%!, while TOP09 is up at 4,17%. Prague is only 14% counted. ANO will probably also go a bit down since they are only at 20% in Prague versus 31% nationwide. Will be interesting if Babis can make a majority with one party only


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 09:14:00 am
TOP09 at 4.39% with 72% counted, only 26% counted in Prague. STAN is actually at 4,93% in Prague, higher than I expected, so they probably have a chance to stay above the threshold


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 21, 2017, 09:16:23 am
If Babis can't make a majority himself, who is he most likely to coalition with? ODS? SPD? Or some kind of 3+-party arrangement?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 09:44:35 am
If Babis can't make a majority himself, who is he most likely to coalition with? ODS? SPD? Or some kind of 3+-party arrangement?

Well, that is the big question. Babis said before the election that he would not cooperate with SPD, Communists nor TOP09. ODS deputy leader has stated again today that they will not work with Communists or ANO, and the Pirate leader basically rejected cooperation with ANO. The current coalition partnernes, CSSD and KDU-CSL, have led a long campaign against Babis and removed him as Finance Minister shortly before the election. They haven't closed the door on ANO cooperation without Babis, but Babis himself has so far ruled out the Polish model. So if we strictly listen to what everyone has said in public, Babis will not be able to make a coalition unless he gets a majority on his own, which looks unlikely.

So in order for a coalition to be made, either Babis or one of the other parties will have to renege on its words. I find it hard to judge what is most likely; perhaps Babis and Okamura as fellow businessmen could work things out, but Babis also seems to consider Okamura as a unstable partner. An internal backlash in ODS that could bring Klaus Jr. to power looks less likely after a decent results.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 09:51:04 am
TOP09 at 4,68% nationwide with 88,81% counted, Prague 53% counted. Will be close to the end. I am not even sure how many seats they will get, if they cross the threshold. Probably 2/3 in Prague, party leader Kalousek will probably sneak in in the area around Prague (Středočeském), Jihočeském and Královéhradeckém could give them a seat each as well.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 21, 2017, 09:55:29 am
If TOP09 cross the threshold and put ANO + SPD under 100, is there any chance of an ODS + Pirate + KSCM + CSSD + KDU-CDL + STAN + TOP09 coalition?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 09:57:15 am
Prague 6 where I lived has ANO in 3rd place so far, with Pirates and TOP09 slightly ahead ;)


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 10:00:49 am
If TOP09 cross the threshold and put ANO + SPD under 100, is there any chance of an ODS + Pirate + KSCM + CSSD + KDU-CDL + STAN + TOP09 coalition?

No, many of them would not want to touch the Communists. So any anti-Babis coalition looks even more difficult.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 10:07:03 am
TOP09 at 4,86% with 94% counted, 68% counted in Prague. The battle for 2nd place also looks extremely tight. ODS, SPD and Pirates are all between 10,4% and 11%, but SPD could end ahead in terms of seats as they are in play for those in most regions.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Double Carpet on October 21, 2017, 10:07:33 am
Might ANO be able to govern as a minority and seek confidence & supply?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 21, 2017, 10:10:20 am
now at 4.91 with 95% in...


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 10:12:40 am
Might ANO be able to govern as a minority and seek confidence & supply?

Perhaps an option. The other parties rejecting him will probably not change his mind, but maybe his own rejections of SPD and/or Communists can be removed if they are only support parties. However, governing as a minority would not fit well with his ideas of a strong executive that gets a lot done. President Zeman has previously shown himself willing to name cabinets without support in parliament, so he could make Babis PM, even if he would get a vote of no confidence right away.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 10:13:56 am
now at 4.91 with 95% in...

And Stan looks remarkably resilient. The KDU-CSL and STAN combined is safely above 10% :)


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 21, 2017, 10:16:08 am
4.96...

I think they're going to make it in.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 10:17:12 am
CSSD senator, former minister and presidential candidate Jiri Dienstbier said that CSSD has probably been to vague; caught between the clear messages on immigration and the euro by Babis and Okamura and the socially liberal, youngish message of the Pirates. Another huge beating for a Social Democratic party


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 21, 2017, 10:18:42 am
CSSD senator, former minister and presidential candidate Jiri Dienstbier said that CSSD has probably been to vague; caught between the clear messages on immigration and the euro by Babis and Okamura and the socially liberal, youngish message of the Pirates. Another huge beating for a Social Democratic party

Did Babis really have a clear message on the Euro though?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 10:20:20 am
CSSD senator, former minister and presidential candidate Jiri Dienstbier said that CSSD has probably been to vague; caught between the clear messages on immigration and the euro by Babis and Okamura and the socially liberal, youngish message of the Pirates. Another huge beating for a Social Democratic party

Did Babis really have a clear message on the Euro though?

That was perhaps more about Okamura, yes. Babis has not rejected it in principle, more that the Eurozone needs a lot of reform, Greece out etc.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 10:21:08 am
4.96...

I think they're going to make it in.

4,99%...


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 21, 2017, 10:22:15 am
4.96...

I think they're going to make it in.

4,99%...

And there's 5. They're in.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 10:24:53 am
4.96...

I think they're going to make it in.

4,99%...

And there's 5. They're in.

6 seats so far. 3 in Prague, 1 to party leader Kalousek in the area around Prague, 1 in Jihočeském and 1 in Jihomoravském


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 21, 2017, 10:25:25 am
If they somehow lose 3 more seats then ANO + SPD will be impossible. Which tbh is optimal at this point.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: VPH on October 21, 2017, 10:28:44 am
Does anybody have a primer of what each party stands for? Where do the Pirates fall ideologically? I'm curious about what kind of government will form from this.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 21, 2017, 10:33:28 am
Does anybody have a primer of what each party stands for? Where do the Pirates fall ideologically? I'm curious about what kind of government will form from this.

Don't exactly know all the details, but basically:

ANO: somewhat vague populist party led by a billionaire

ODS: Centrist-ish

SPD: Your obligatory Le Pen-esque far-righters

Pirates: Liberal/Slightly libertarian, focus on civil liberties

KSCM: Commies

CSSD: run-of-the-mill Social Democrats

KDU-CSL: Christian Democracy

TOP 09: Conservative pro-Euro

STAN: Anti-Centralization

Not completely sure about the last two though.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 10:41:01 am
Vaclav Klaus jr. is probably making daddy proud today; he is getting a brilliant election in Prague. Preferenced by 22,6% of ODS voters, which raises him from 3rd to 1st on the ODS list. The 4th and last seat for ODS in Prague looks to be taken by Pavel Žáček, who was only 17th in the last, but quite well-known as investtigator of communist crimes as director of the Institute for the Study of Totalitarian Regimes. Will be interesting how the internal games of ODS play out.

(https://im.tiscali.cz/press/2017/01/10/752037-profimedia-0101899644-653x367.jpg)


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 10:45:30 am
Does anybody have a primer of what each party stands for? Where do the Pirates fall ideologically? I'm curious about what kind of government will form from this.

Don't exactly know all the details, but basically:

ANO: somewhat vague populist party led by a billionaire

ODS: Centrist-ish

SPD: Your obligatory Le Pen-esque far-righters

Pirates: Liberal/Slightly libertarian, focus on civil liberties

KSCM: Commies

CSSD: run-of-the-mill Social Democrats

KDU-CSL: Christian Democracy

TOP 09: Conservative pro-Euro

STAN: Anti-Centralization

Not completely sure about the last two though.


ODS is relatively similar to the Tories in UK, and has been a stable partner for them in the EP. It probably even has somewhat similar splits between somewhat Eurosceptic and quite economically conservative figures (Fiala) and those who advocate very strong Eurosceptic tendencies (Klaus Jr).

Other than that, around right. TOP09 is the closest you get to a standard European Social Liberal urban-based party.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 10:52:45 am
21-year old Dominik Feri, student and actor of ethiopian heritage, received 19,4% preferences on the TOP09 Prague list and will therefore get the party's 2nd seat there despite a low placement as 36.

(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BZWE4NzQ3ZjQtZGZmNC00N2QwLWJhNmUtMWUzYjJlNmE5NzBmXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMjIxMzMyMQ@@._V1_SY500_CR0,0,399,500_AL_.jpg)


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Tender Branson on October 21, 2017, 11:37:50 am
Here is the official results page:

https://www.volbyhned.cz/ps2017/ps_celk_en.html

Almost 100% counted.

Turnout: 60.8% (+1.3)

As Austria the week before, the Czechs also shifted strongly to the Right.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Tender Branson on October 21, 2017, 11:45:44 am
From what I understand, some 70% voted for Center-Right parties (which would be even more than the 58% in Germany and 63% in Austria).


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 21, 2017, 11:49:01 am
With 99.7% reporting, ANO+SPD has 100 seats - short of a majority.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Tender Branson on October 21, 2017, 11:53:48 am
Currently, I have:

71% Right (ANO, TOP09, ODS, SPD, STAN, KDU-CSL, Svobodni, Realists, ROZUMNI)
27% Left (Pirates, Social Dems, Communists, Greens)
  2% Others (with less than 0.5% each)


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Helsinkian on October 21, 2017, 12:04:24 pm
From what I understand, some 70% voted for Center-Right parties (which would be even more than the 58% in Germany and 63% in Austria).

Still behind Poland.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: DavidB. on October 21, 2017, 12:10:00 pm
Really happy with SPD results, a strong signal against mass immigration


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 12:29:33 pm
Babis says he is reaching out to all the party leaders of the new parliament, and hopes a new government can be in place quickly. He also underlines that ANO is a pro-European party, and that Czechia will remain a solid part of EU and NATO. But he says the idea of a two-speed EU and new integration plans should stop.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Tender Branson on October 21, 2017, 12:33:40 pm
Babis says he is reaching out to all the party leaders of the new parliament, and hopes a new government can be in place quickly. He also underlines that ANO is a pro-European party, and that Czechia will remain a solid part of EU and NATO. But he says the idea of a two-speed EU and new integration plans should stop.

So he's saying the same things that Kurz said after the election ...


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 12:45:34 pm
Babis says he is reaching out to all the party leaders of the new parliament, and hopes a new government can be in place quickly. He also underlines that ANO is a pro-European party, and that Czechia will remain a solid part of EU and NATO. But he says the idea of a two-speed EU and new integration plans should stop.

So he's saying the same things that Kurz said after the election ...

More Austro-posting is not needed, but yes largely sounded like a fairly standard centre-right party. He has never been very Eurosceptic, so not much of a surprise. Perhaps underlining it is a signal that he will try to court current coalition partners CSSD and KDU-CSL first. And maybe to calm leaders in other European countries as the lazy Trump comparisons have been written in too many newspapers.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: mileslunn on October 21, 2017, 01:54:06 pm
From what I understand, some 70% voted for Center-Right parties (which would be even more than the 58% in Germany and 63% in Austria).

That depends on how you define them.  If you use the European definition true, if you use the British/Canadian one social democratic/Green parties on left, liberals in the centre, and conservatives on the right while the American is conservatives on the right everyone else on the left.  Otherwise using the Anglo-Saxon one, I have Germany at 46% right wing, yes the FDP tilts to the right but they are sort of a mix of social and classical liberals and I think under Guido Westerwelle they were more pro free market like the VVD in Netherlands and Venestre in Denmark, but now more like the D66 and Liberal Democrats in UK.  The left in Germany I have at 39% and the rest in the centre or close to.

For Austria I have 58% right wing, 35% left wing as Neos seems fairly centrist, maybe somewhat market oriented but on the political spectrum similar to where Jean Chretien and Paul Martin were in Canada, Bill Clinton in the US and even Barack Obama to some extent, as well as Nick Clegg in the UK.

For Czech Republic, ANO 2011 I put as centre as their ideology seems incoherent but basically they seem to be all things to all people so we probably won't know until they govern which they are.  I consider STAN centrist and even KDU-CSL is pretty centrist too.

Mind you in North America our right is a lot more dogmatic than in Europe and tends to have little tolerance for those who don't tow the line.  Someone like Michael Chong who was considered a liberal plant in the Tories would probably sit to the right of most mainstream centre-right parties in Europe save the far right and be similar to Theresa May and David Cameron on the political spectrum.  Likewise in the US John Kasich who many called a RINO would sit to the right of all mainstream right wing parties in Europe although not as right wing as the far right ones.  So I think right vs. left is more perspective although agree this year it seems in most European elections the country as a whole shifted rightwards.  UK, Malta, and Norway were the only ones who stayed with the status quo (Yes centre-right won, but their share of the popular vote fell while Labour Party fell but their centre-left bloc went up mind you the biggest increase came for the Centre Party who as its name says is a centrist one).  In UK the overall government may still be on the right, but Labour in contrast to other social democratic parties saw big gains in votes and did so running on a strongly left wing platform vs. a more moderate one so wouldn't be surprised if social democratic parties elsewhere in Europe try to mimic Sanders and Corbyn to gain amongst the youth.  Whether it will work or not is a different story.  Malta stayed on the left while Iceland next week might be the first case of a European country swinging leftward but we shall see and with how fragmented the parties are there we might not know until the New Year or later who forms government.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: mileslunn on October 21, 2017, 01:55:23 pm
Babis says he is reaching out to all the party leaders of the new parliament, and hopes a new government can be in place quickly. He also underlines that ANO is a pro-European party, and that Czechia will remain a solid part of EU and NATO. But he says the idea of a two-speed EU and new integration plans should stop.

So he's saying the same things that Kurz said after the election ...

I don't know that makes someone right wing, a lot of parties on the further left are Eurosceptic too so I think amongst the establishment one who doesn't fully embrace the EU is considered right wing but not sure that is true amongst average voters.  In UK, many Labour voters voted to leave.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 21, 2017, 02:45:10 pm
Average age of the new Pirate group of MPs: 34.1

I can't remember something similar, certainly not from a party with more than a few MPs


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 21, 2017, 05:16:46 pm
Average age of the new Pirate group of MPs: 34.1

I can't remember something similar, certainly not from a party with more than a few MPs

TBH I think Europe needs more Pirate Parties.

Too many parties are pushing for curbing liberties in the face of foreign threats.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on October 21, 2017, 06:41:39 pm
Currently, I have:

71% Right (ANO, TOP09, ODS, SPD, STAN, KDU-CSL, Svobodni, Realists, ROZUMNI)
27% Left (Pirates, Social Dems, Communists, Greens)
  2% Others (with less than 0.5% each)

Sorry, but putting KDU-CSL, STAN or TOP in the same basket as SPD is stupid.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Tender Branson on October 21, 2017, 09:26:47 pm
Currently, I have:

71% Right (ANO, TOP09, ODS, SPD, STAN, KDU-CSL, Svobodni, Realists, ROZUMNI)
27% Left (Pirates, Social Dems, Communists, Greens)
  2% Others (with less than 0.5% each)

Sorry, but putting KDU-CSL, STAN or TOP in the same basket as SPD is stupid.

They are all Right-wingers though. Some more, some less.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: mileslunn on October 21, 2017, 09:43:38 pm
Currently, I have:

71% Right (ANO, TOP09, ODS, SPD, STAN, KDU-CSL, Svobodni, Realists, ROZUMNI)
27% Left (Pirates, Social Dems, Communists, Greens)
  2% Others (with less than 0.5% each)

Sorry, but putting KDU-CSL, STAN or TOP in the same basket as SPD is stupid.

They are all Right-wingers though. Some more, some less.

STAN is probably more centrist than right wing.  Even KDU-CSL is pretty close the centre while ANO 2011 is tough to pin down.  Top 09 and ODS are definitely on the right at least would be in most countries although if you used American definitions only SPD, Svobodni, Realist, and Rozumi would qualify as right wing.  Right wing vs. left wing varies depending on country.  In many European countries the Democrats would be considered a party on the right, yet in the US most consider them on the left.  Heck here in Canada, while most agree the Conservatives are on the right and NDP on the left, if you ask an NDP supporter they say Liberals on the right, ask a Liberal they say they are in the centre, ask a conservative, they say they are on the left.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: ˘®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 21, 2017, 10:36:49 pm
KDU is basically coalition fodder. Weren't not for the spectacular divorce between Babies and Social Democrats plus Christian Democrats, they'd be first in line to sign up for more punishment in an ANO government.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Celebi on October 22, 2017, 03:58:16 am
Currently, I have:

71% Right (ANO, TOP09, ODS, SPD, STAN, KDU-CSL, Svobodni, Realists, ROZUMNI)
27% Left (Pirates, Social Dems, Communists, Greens)
  2% Others (with less than 0.5% each)

Sorry, but putting KDU-CSL, STAN or TOP in the same basket as SPD is stupid.

They are all Right-wingers though. Some more, some less.

SPD is sort of weird mix of economic center-right and socially authoritarian. Pirates definitely aren't left-wing (economically). All of the parties (except for TOP09 and maybe Pirates) are strongly anti-immigration in a way that makes Trump look like moderate compared to them.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Simfan34 on October 22, 2017, 07:20:29 am
21-year old Dominik Feri, student and actor of ethiopian heritage, received 19,4% preferences on the TOP09 Prague list and will therefore get the party's 2nd seat there despite a low placement as 36.

(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BZWE4NzQ3ZjQtZGZmNC00N2QwLWJhNmUtMWUzYjJlNmE5NzBmXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMjIxMzMyMQ@@._V1_SY500_CR0,0,399,500_AL_.jpg)

A bowtied Ethiopian in Schwarzenberg's party?! :D


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: mgop on October 22, 2017, 08:08:03 am
top09 is humiliated, thats nice


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Heat on October 22, 2017, 08:55:19 am
KDU is basically coalition fodder. Weren't not for the spectacular divorce between Babies and Social Democrats plus Christian Democrats, they'd be first in line to sign up for more punishment in an ANO government.
They are a classic Eastern European vaguely socially conservative, vaguely agrarian patronage machine, so I wouldn't be surprised if they did anyway.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 22, 2017, 09:06:48 am
ANO is already starting talks with all the different parties.

Quote
In an interview with iDnes.cz, Mr. Babiš said his party was closest to the Civic Democrats, the Mayors and Independents group and the Czech Pirate Party. He said some elements of the programme of Freedom and Direct Democracy were also acceptable to ANO.

However, the heads of many other parties have expressed reluctance to enter a coalition headed by Mr. Babiš in view of the fact that he is facing criminal charges of abusing EU subsidies.

For his part, the ANO chief said the biggest problem in running the Czech state was coalition forming. He said it was a pity that the country did not have a majority electoral system that would allow for the effective functioning of the state and the government.

Mr. Babiš said, however, that changing the current system of proportional representation would not be priority for his party in negotiations on forming a new cabinet.

http://www.radio.cz/en/section/news/communists-first-as-ano-begin-round-of-talks-on-coalition-formation


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Heat on October 22, 2017, 09:26:20 am
Has the young Klaus come out of his cave yet? He's probably Babis's best chance of making a deal with ODS.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Singletxguyforfun on October 22, 2017, 10:33:33 am
Velmi dobre vysledky! Znovu udelejte Cesky!


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: The Saint on October 22, 2017, 11:20:44 am
What are Babiš’s/ANO’s positions on immigration?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Famous Mortimer on October 22, 2017, 11:23:20 am
What are Babiš’s/ANO’s positions on immigration?

Everyone is the Czech Republic is against immigration except TOP.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 22, 2017, 11:46:24 am
What are Babiš’s/ANO’s positions on immigration?

Everyone is the Czech Republic is against immigration except TOP.

Even the Pirates?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Famous Mortimer on October 24, 2017, 01:38:56 am
What are Babiš’s/ANO’s positions on immigration?

Everyone is the Czech Republic is against immigration except TOP.

Even the Pirates?

Possible. Does anyone know what they actually stand for?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on October 24, 2017, 12:07:45 pm
What are Babiš’s/ANO’s positions on immigration?

Everyone is the Czech Republic is against immigration except TOP.

Even the Pirates?

Possible. Does anyone know what they actually stand for?

Well, they're civil libertarians, and seem to have liberal and pro-freedom sympathies in general, so I'd expect neutral or slightly pro-immigration. (They might actually be soft anti-, I really am just guessing here)


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 27, 2017, 03:12:40 am
ANO continue to talk with most of the other parties, but Babis have now completely ruled out including STAN or TOP09 in a new coalition. He "the two groupings had a minimum number of deputies in the lower house and what’s more behaved in a hostile manner toward his party". Babis also states that he wants a government before Christmas. CSSD leader Zaoralek has said that they are going into opposition.

Alongside the talks of coalition, the parties are also talking about how the highest post in the new parliament should be distributed. The role of chairman is sought by both ANOs Radek Vondracek and ODS leader Petr Fiala, while both Okamura as well as the combined efforts of KDU-CSL/STAN/TOP09 seek the deputy chairman post.

http://www.radio.cz/en/section/news/ano-rule-out-including-mayors-or-top-09-in-future-coalition


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 27, 2017, 07:59:01 am
After ODS leader Petr Fiala cleary repeated that his party would not join ANO in coalition, Babis has given up on forming a majority government and will instead pursue a minority government, something he just days ago dismissed as a "unrealistic scenario". He says he will put together a government of ANO ministers as well as politically-unaffiliated experts. He says he will incorporate parts of other parties' policies in his government programme to gain support, but has not stated which parties in particular. SPD would certainly be a good guess, and I guess they would basically only need some kind of democracy reform (referendums most likely) and some tough words on muslims to vote in favour of the minority government. However, it will be interesting to see who else will be in favour, or at least not vote against it. The support of one additional party is needed. Since all the mainstream parties have rejected Babis, it would be a bit strange if they were now to allow him to govern. Perhaps he will try to court the Pirates by including their policies on technology etc. Otherwise, the Communists are probably the best bid.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on October 28, 2017, 07:18:45 am
Two of the biggest losers of the election will both get a new leadership.

The leader of the Communist Party, Vojtěch Filip, has announced he will stand down as leader. Filip, who has led the party for 12 years, announced he would not stand against at the party congress planned for April.

The current leadership of the Social Democrats will resign at the party congress planned for April and allow the membership to elect a new team, party deputy chairman Milan Chovanec announced. However, it is unclear whether Chovanec or Zaoralek will run again, but particularly the latter is probably quite closely tied to the defeat, despite taking over late in the term.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: rob in cal on October 30, 2017, 05:19:43 pm
   Diouf, what kinds of new referenda laws would the ANO support to get SPD on board?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on November 01, 2017, 05:32:38 pm
   Diouf, what kinds of new referenda laws would the ANO support to get SPD on board?

There is some background on it in the article below. Basically, where you get a number of signatures then you can hold a referendum, not specified here what subjects can be send to referenda. A referenda law will require a constitutional act, which needs 3/5 majority, 120 votes. But as the article, says both ANO and KSCM are supportive, so only five more seats is needed for Czechia to be hit by this plague as well.

Quote
According to him, ANO negotiators said ANO wants to support a bill on general referendum.

"It is necessary to discuss its parameters. [ANO leader] Andrej Babis told us ANO's idea of the quorum required for holding a referendum is higher. He want it higher than 250,000 people..., with which we disagree," Okamura said.

Nevertheless, ANO's consent to the planned bill is important, he said, adding that the KSCM, too, promised to support it, and only five more lawmakers are needed for the bill to make it through.

In the general election, ANO gained 78 seats in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies. The SPD fared fourth with 22 seats and the KSCM fifth with 15 seats.


http://praguemonitor.com/2017/10/27/okamura-spd-ano-agree-promoting-general-referendum-bill


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on November 01, 2017, 06:06:01 pm
Babis still seems to struggle to find partnerns willing to support his government. So far, the only party opening up for supporting an ANO minority government, or at least abstaining, is the Communists.

Quote
The head of the far-left Communist party (KSCM) said he could tolerate a minority cabinet as a way out of the impasse.

“It is a question of how much the government’s program would fit us, to tolerate this government,” KSCM chairman Vojtech Filip told Czech Television. “I am not saying we will support it, I am speaking about tolerance.”

Babis apparently tried quite openly to split the ODS. In a meeting with Petr Fiala, he proposed that ODS lawmakers Vaclav Klaus Jr. and Jana Cernochova joined his minority government as experts in education and defence respectively. Quite a provocation, which caused a furious responce from Fiala afterwards. I have yet to see Klaus Jr comment; it is of course possible that he and some allies could support/abstain in the vote about Babis minority government, but that would almost certainly mean that the party will split.

Okamura is quite adamant to enter the government and significantly influence the programme. Since Babis is not offering this, Okamura states that the won't support Babis' government in any way.
Quote
"We said that we will not back any government that does not fulfil our programme. If its is ready to fulfil our programme, we will be ready to assume the government responsibility. However, the offer was not made," Okamura said.

He also dismissed the option that the SPD might contribute to the confidence [to be gained in the Chamber of Deputies] in ANO by its deputies walking our of the room during the vote.

So Babis basically needs to decide what to do. Does he want to pursue support from KCSM and SPD with several policy concessions and perhaps even make some of them members in his government, despite Babis rejecting this scenario often, including in his message to the rest of the EU on election night. Or will he accept not being a part of the government himself and then try to gain tacid support from some of the mainstream parties. Minister of Regional Affairs, Karla Šlechtová, is one option as PM in that case.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-czech-politics/czech-babis-gains-possible-support-in-bid-for-minority-government-idUSKBN1CZ2NO?il=0

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/11/01/spd-not-back-babi%C5%A1s-government


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: DavidB. on November 19, 2017, 08:20:20 am
Ugh. (https://blisty.cz/art/88807-jews-homosexuals-and-roma-should-be-gassed-said-an-influential-mp-in-czech-parliament.html#sthash.PrmjdDIt.uxfs) Friendship ended with SPD.

Quote
"Jews, gays and Roma should be gassed," said Jaroslav Staník, the secretary of the ultra-right wing Czech populist party "Freedom and Direct Democracy" (SPD) and a close collaborator of the party leader Tomio Okamura, in parliament. Because of such statements, Staník got embroiled in a verbal conflict with the Czech Social Democratic Minister of Labour and Social Affairs Michaela Marksová-Tominová and some other MPs. The conflict took place in one of the restaurants in the Czech Parliament, which are not accessible to the public.

"As I entered the restaurant, he said 'You are that Marx-Engels minister. You support homosexuals.' He added that they should be gassed and liquidated. I remonstrated with him verbally," said the minister, adding that Staník was heavily drunk.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: MaxQue on November 19, 2017, 04:59:39 pm
Ugh. (https://blisty.cz/art/88807-jews-homosexuals-and-roma-should-be-gassed-said-an-influential-mp-in-czech-parliament.html#sthash.PrmjdDIt.uxfs) Friendship ended with SPD.

Quote
"Jews, gays and Roma should be gassed," said Jaroslav Staník, the secretary of the ultra-right wing Czech populist party "Freedom and Direct Democracy" (SPD) and a close collaborator of the party leader Tomio Okamura, in parliament. Because of such statements, Staník got embroiled in a verbal conflict with the Czech Social Democratic Minister of Labour and Social Affairs Michaela Marksová-Tominová and some other MPs. The conflict took place in one of the restaurants in the Czech Parliament, which are not accessible to the public.

"As I entered the restaurant, he said 'You are that Marx-Engels minister. You support homosexuals.' He added that they should be gassed and liquidated. I remonstrated with him verbally," said the minister, adding that Staník was heavily drunk.

Well, that's what you get with the far-right...


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Leftbehind on November 19, 2017, 07:42:23 pm
Ugh. (https://blisty.cz/art/88807-jews-homosexuals-and-roma-should-be-gassed-said-an-influential-mp-in-czech-parliament.html#sthash.PrmjdDIt.uxfs) Friendship ended with SPD

Up until this point you were friends with the Czech far-right?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on November 20, 2017, 10:29:33 am
Negotiations are on-going between ANO and other parties. The Communists remain the most positive towards the idea of supporting an ANO minority government, while SPD and Pirates have rejected it so far, but seems on decent speaking terms with Babis. All the other parties seems to have ruled out cooperation completely, and all the centre-right parties (The Civic Democrats (ODS), the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), TOP 09 and the Mayors and Independents (STAN)) has formed the Democratic Bloc, which will cooperate a lot in parliament.

Quote
Filip repeatedly said the Communists do not plan to take part in a government headed by ANO leader Andrej Babis because the programmes of the two parties are very different. "The KSCM is not at all interested in forming a government together with the ANO movement," he said.

However, the KSCM may tolerate the planned ANO minority government under certain conditions. After the next week constituent session, the KSCM is to present its demands related to the policy statement of the next government to ANO.

The Communists call for national referendums deciding on key issues, a permanent rise in the minimum wage and pensions, taxation imposed on the financial compensation that the state pays to churches for unreturned property, state control over water management and protection of mineral resources.

The KSCM also demands the introduction of progressive taxation, which ANO rejected. "This is naturally a problem for us," Faltynek said.

He said ANO also received programme priorities from the Pirates and the SPD.

Faltynek confirmed that ANO does not want to form a government with the SPD and the KSCM. "We want to stay in NATO and to stay in the European Union as well," he said.

According to its programme, the KSCM wants the Czech Republic to leave NATO. Okamura's SPD calls for a national referendum that would be deciding on the country's possible departure from the EU. Both demands are unacceptable for ANO, Faltynek said.

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/11/20/ano-supports-ksčm-leader-chamber-deputy-head


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on November 23, 2017, 12:24:09 pm
ANO's Radek Vondracek was elected parliament speaker with the support of Communists, Pirates and SPD. The Democratic Bloc abstained, while the Social Democrats voted against. Five deputy chairmen will be elected tomorrow, which will be ODS head Petr Fiala, SPD leader Tomio Okamura, Pirate MP Vojtech Pikal, KSCM leader Vojtech Filip and CSSD MP Jan Hamacek. Additionally, the committees have met and chosen their chairmen. The mandate and immunity committee, which will soon look at a new police request to remove Babis' immunity, will be headed by KSCM Stanislav Grospic, who was supported by ANO and SPD.

So as expected, these votes suggest that Babis' best chance of assembling a majority is with SPD and KSCM. The latter has already said that they could support a Babis minority government if some demands are met. The SPD are still saying that they won't support a government without themselves, but Babis will clearly like to avoid them in government. Babis would like the goverment to be pro-EU and pro-NATO and avoid becoming completely shunned in the EU, and he naturally has huge doubts about SPD's ability to function as a government party. Babis has also repeatedly tried to court the Pirates, and have said they could be allowed to design the government's policies fully on tech, but so far the Pirates have not been forthcoming.

On top of the process about forming a government, things are gearing up for the presidential election in January 2018. The three main candidates seem to be incumbent Milos Zeman, President of the Czech Academy of Sciences Jiří Drahoš and artist Michal Horáček. However, just before the registration deadline, former ODS prime minister Mirek Topolánek also joined the race, so it will be interesting to see whether he can make any progress. Many of the parties haven't made up their mind about which candidate they will support. ODS obviously supports Topolánek, and KDU-CSL and STAN supports Jiří Drahoš, but the others haven't chosen anyone. CSSD stated recently that they wont support anyone, while ANO has also remained silent. Polls show that the voters of ANO, KCSM and SPD mainly support Zeman, but Babis would probably not like to be directly associated with Zeman, so it seems likely that they won't support anyone either. I haven't seen KCSM and SPD make announcements yet, but they could publicly support Zeman. Head-to-head polls show the centrist Jiří Drahoš slightly favoured against Zeman. The more socially liberal Horáček is predicted to lose against Zeman with around the same margin as Schwarzenberg lost in 2013.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on December 06, 2017, 11:47:02 am
ANO's two former coalition partners are considering whether to allow Babis to form his minority government to take him out of the claws of SPD and KSCM.

Quote
"It should be considered whether to find new faces that would be able to communicate with Babis and his ANO and participate in it [the government] or whether to tolerate at least the government in the making," Social Democrat deputy Jaroslav Foldyna told Pravo

A Social Democrat deputy who requested anonymity said he was primarily afraid of an early election."It can be devastating for us. We should prevent it we should start making politics towards this country. A red-fascist-populist coalition will not benefit this nation," he said in a veiled reference to the government of Babis which may be backed by the Communists (KSCM) and the anti-EU Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD).

If Babis does not gain support or tolerance by the SPD and KSCM for his minority government at the first try, the 15 Social Democrat deputies should consider it whether to tolerate it at the second try, the deputy said. However, the 15 Social Democrat deputies would not be enough for Babis to rule, because along with 78 ANO deputies, the government would only have 93 seats in the 200-member Chamber of Deputies. These could be found with the ten deputies for the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), Pravo writes.

On the other hand, chairman of the Social Democrat deputy group Jan Chvojka is of the view that the fear of an early election or a coalition consisting of ANO, the Communists and SPD is not a sufficient reason to tolerate a government headed by Babis, Pravo writes

http://praguemonitor.com/2017/12/06/pr%C3%A1vo-social-democrats-may-support-babi%C5%A1s-government


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Sestak on December 24, 2017, 06:49:04 pm
Do we have a thread on the January presidential election?


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on December 28, 2017, 05:42:14 pm
Do we have a thread on the January presidential election?

Nope, you're welcome to start one if interested. Interesting to see how big the turnout will be for a post with very limited powers, which few of the parties are invested in, and which come shortly after a parliamentary election.


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Singletxguyforfun on December 28, 2017, 06:50:59 pm
Do we have a thread on the January presidential election?

Nope, you're welcome to start one if interested. Interesting to see how big the turnout will be for a post with very limited powers, which few of the parties are invested in, and which come shortly after a parliamentary election.

I’ll be there for the first round Jan 12


Title: Re: Czech parliamentary election, 20-21 October 2017
Post by: Diouf on January 11, 2018, 12:54:29 pm
The first confidence vote for Babis' cabinet has been postponed to January 16. "The unexpected delay in the confidence vote, which opposition parties sought after 10 hours of debate, puts pressure on a parliamentary committee to make a recommendation whether to lift Babis's parliamentary immunity from prosecution before the chamber votes on confidence". It still only seems like the Communists will support the cabinet, so it is likely to fail the confidence vote. Zeman has said Babis must show he has majority support before assigning him PM-designate the second time: "President Milos Zeman will demand signatures of at least an absolute majority of MPs (101) in support of Andrej Babis's government during the second attempt before appointing him as prime minister-designate again, Zeman told reporters on leaving the Chamber of Deputies on Wednesday." So it could be a while before the second confidence vote if the parties fail to move towards each other during new negotiations. Meanwhile Babis would be acting-PM.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-01-09/czech-government-set-to-lose-confidence-vote-but-babis-party-likely-to-retain-power

http://praguemonitor.com/2018/01/11/zeman-appoint-babi%C5%A1-pm-again-101-mps-support-only