Talk Elections

Nixon, Ford, and Reagan all won with 18-20 year old voters. When did young voters begin to favor the Democrats?

I believe during the Clinton era, but their support wasn't truly locked in until 2004. Clinton left a positive mark on young voters during his second term, but demographic and other changes really began to tilt that bloc towards Democrats in the mid-2000s. Now the weight of racial minorities and a substantially less Republican-leaning generation of white voters have created an age group largely hostile to Republicans.

I wonder: Had Gore won in 2000, would Republicans do better with young voters today?

When the Republicans began to embrace the religious right,  around 2004 or so.

BTW - 18-20 year olds aren't a good indicator of "young voters"

According to Gallup, young voters have always been more Democratic.

In 1936, FDR won 68% of voters under 30 and 56% of voters 50+.

In 1948, Truman + Thurmond + Wallace won 62% under 30 and 50% over 50.

In 1952, Stevenson won 51% under 30 and 39% over 50.

In 1972, McGovern won 48% under 30 and 36% over 50.

In 1980, Reagan won 41% under 30 and 54% over 50.

In all of the above years, the gap was at least 12 points. In other years, the gap was smaller, but younger voters generally voted more Dem than older ones.

I think 2008 set the record for difference between 18-29 and 50+, but 2016 may be a close second, especially if we lump Clinton+Johnson+Stein analogous to what Gallup did for 1948.

As a side note: in 1972, when George C. Wallace was a candidate, his support was approximately the same for those 21-29, 30-49, and 50+ -- but dropped way down for 18-20 year olds.

I'm actually watching the 1988 Results from NBC, Dukakis has the edge...but only by 4% or so.

Reagan won them in 1984, carrying around 60%, and Bush I carried them by around 6 points. Further, Carter carried young voters by a very tiny margin - something like a couple points or so. To be honest, I'm a bit skeptical about relying on those age polls from the 30s - 50s.

I really don't think the idea that today's youth are behaving just the same as before would be correct. Not at all.

True. The age gap is wider than it used to be.

2008 with Obama and the Bush W. Presidency failed.

I believe uptil Reagan it was young and old voters were democrats while middle aged people were republican

Vietnam most likely. There may have been a few counterswings more recently, but that's when the social atmosphere of young adulthood took a hard left turn that it never really took back.

Vietnam most likely. There may have been a few counterswings more recently, but that's when the social atmosphere of young adulthood took a hard left turn that it never really took back.

Reagan dominated among young voters in 1984

FDR dominated with the youth during his time in office. Baby boomers usually voted for Republicans (see Nixon and Reagan).

90s and 2000s, esp under GWB.

At least according to exit polling (which are not gospel on this sort of thing but generally backed up by poll subsamples at the time so reasonably believable), Bush narrowly won 18-25-year-olds in 2000. Thus, they were marginally more Republican than the nation as a whole, as Gore overall won the popular vote very narrowly. There is generally no evidence that younger voters were voting more for the Democrats than older voters in the 90s or earlier as well.

The shift to young voters supporting Democrats much more strongly than the nation as a whole first manifested itself at the presidential level in the 2004 election, when Kerry won younger voters by about ten points while Bush won the popular vote overall for a net deviation from the nation of about D+12, far greater in either direction than had ever been the case before. That margin expanded dramatically again to closer to D+40 in the 2008 election and has not materially changed since then.

The causes are complicated. The stronger socially conservative turn of the Republican Party generally during the Bush administration (including especially the same-sex marriage fights), increasing diversity among younger voters (although even younger whites are more Democratic than whites overall), the Iraq War, 9/11 and its polarization of international affairs, the financial crisis, the general incompetence and, in its later years, deep unpopularity of the Bush administration and strong political messaging by Barack Obama surely all played at least some role.

Historically, for the most part (since the 1930s) younger voters have been more Democratic, but not to the extent that they were in 2008 (which is a bit of an outlier). There are exceptions, such as 1956, 1964, and 1976, where the difference among age groups was small (but with young voters still slightly more Democratic). During certain eras, such as 1984-1992, young voters were actually slightly more Republican (or at least less Democratic) than the national average. In the 1990 House and Senate races, young voters were more Republican, with the notable exception of the NC Senate race between Jesse Helms (R) and Harvey Gantt (D).

When the group that we define as "young voters" stopped comprising the folks who we now put in the group "old voters"? :)

If you want to go by how much more Democratic they voted compared to the nation, then sure I suppose in 1992/1996 you could say it was rather unremarkable, but I don't really see it that way. How voters vote in their youth can be highly suggestive of their future, and in Clinton's case, those voters have displayed modest Democratic leanings even as they aged. Bill Clinton was a popular president who presided over a booming economy, so the idea that young people growing up under him may have taken a shine to Democrats is not far-fetched. All presidents, good or bad, have an effect on the young people who grow up under their tenure.

What you said about Bush winning some portions of younger voters, sure, I think that could suggest that Clinton's impact among 90s youth was more isolated to him and the circumstances of the time, and was not really connected to the main trend that caused young people to begin heavily trending Democratic in 2004-on.

This is why I'm skeptical of 'Gen Z will be the most conservative generation' point I've been hearing, generations voting habits seem to be shaped who is President during their emerging years. Most Gen Zs will grow up with Trump as they reach voting age and he leave a lasting impression of the GOP.

I think Gen Z will be either the Euro style labor SJ left, and a more moderate to libertarian GOP. You are already starting to see that drift in, some elected GOP and candidates are styling themselves "conservatarian". https://twitter.com/garrettforva Tom Garrett has that in his Twitter about box. It will be most prevalent in the South and to some extent in the NE, with the NE GOP going more moderate and not so much libertarian.

I'm not even sure what exactly you are trying to say, but young voters in the 90s voted about the same as the nation as a whole. Sure, that demographic is more Democratic than the nation as a whole *now*, but that was not evidenced until 2004 at the earliest, so attributing it to Clinton is contorted and strange. Anyway, voters in their 40s today vote about like they did when they were in their 20s in the 90s; it's older voters who have changed.

This.

2006 on. The Dems won the 18-29 age group in US House Races 60-38% in a CNN exit poll that I just looked at in 2006.

The logic behind that point is based on YouTube comments and 4chan memes so...

The_Donald also has gone from 375,000 ---> 422,000 subscribers last we spoke.

Gen Z is truly shaping up to their destiny.

They are conservative in comparison to 18-24 year olds.  Considering that teens tend to have the same political opinion as their parents until they reach older.   I was a Bush supporting republican like my dad until i reached age 16 when the Iraq war and Bush's failures became indefensible(its also when my gender dysphoria came back sssshhhhhhhh)

Um, OK?

That's still less than the number of votes that Hillary received in my county. Statistically that is a meaningless figure.

There's also been a rise in Gen Z minorities supporting the alt right who call themselves the "alt white".

"Hey look I'm a Republican posting an article about a handful of students at some stupid private liberal arts college throwing a hissy fit over some dumb and trivial thing, this clearly proves that all college students are exactly like this and get upset over this dumb stuff."

Same logic.

And keep in mind that a good number of those 422k are probably bots or Russian trolls.

There's also been a rise in apolitical Gen Z teens who are considering supporting the alt right. They call themselves the "alt might?".

Has there been any polling on this or are we just projecting based on social media and online discussion boards? I know it's been discussed before, but I don't think 4Chan and Reddit are very appealing to teenagers nowadays, and their user base actually appears to be mostly immature 20-and 30-somethings.

Also, it would be nice if someone ran a poll of 15-25 year olds asking their opinions on New Left hobby horses like safe spaces and cultural appropriation, while also asking about views of the Alt-Right. I ask because hardcore New Left nonsense like having a "No Whites Day" on campus or shutting down a taco truck because it's run by white people is so ridiculous that I can't imagine even most #woke activists/hashtactivists have much time for it, and also because the actual hardcore Alt-Right can't be that big just going on things like membership in Alt-Right Facebook/Reddit groups, viewership of Alt-Right Youtube channels, and turnout at Richard Spencer's rallies.

C'mon guys. "Alt white" "Alt might?" "The_Donald increasing in subscriber count" are clearly joke posts.

I've only been on here since February so I think you're confusing me with someone else :P

But I have said in other posts that the Gen Z = Nazis trope was a joke.