Talk Elections

Link to the old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=155115.0



http://www.economist.com/node/21723410

What a boring thread name. People had plenty of better suggestions.

Like The Dawn of Shakarron Macaron?

Would you prefer: The Destruction of the Party of Antonio V?

'Tout doit disparaître' would be even more fitting.

I decided to arbitrarily settle this myself but keep suggesting, by all means :P

As usual after a legislative election the government resigned, Philippe was immediately renamed as PM.

But so far two major change in the next government: Richard Ferrand will leave to join the National Assembly as leader of LREM deputies and this morning Sylvie Goulard (Defense minister) has resigned to defend herself over allegation of MoDem's fake jobs in the EU Parliament.

Y'en a Ma(rre)cron

Best I could do, sorry :(

Don't worry - two can play at that game.

Now, in all seriousness, I'm looking forward to macroneconomics. What are the odds of Macron getting most of his economic agenda passed in the first year or so?

I can't think of anything else, so you have my blessing.

I like the new title. Appropriately optimistic. :P

Also, kudos for not forgetting the circumflex accent!

Bayrou and De Sarnez will also leave the government.

I was shocked about Bayrou. Trouble in paradise already between LREM and MoDem?

No, there is a judicial enquiry against MoDem over some fake jobs allegations, Bayrou, as chief of MoDem, is directly involved (same for Goulard and De Sarnez).

The new government is totally in the spirit of the title of this topic:
-no major political figure (except Le Drian)
-2/3 of the members of the government come form civil society

Some news today:

-De Rugy has been elected President of the national Assembly, Valls will seat with LREM group but not as a full member of LREM.
-25 senators form a LREM group in the Senate, the number could rise
-Macon has invited Trump for Bastille Day.

RIP Simone Veil

Yeah, RIP FF.

Meh, you missed the time she walked with Christine Boutin to oppose gay marriage?

I mean, she's not my kind of politician and I'd never have voted for her or anything, but her legacy for women's rights remains invaluable.

Simone Veil was out of public life in 2013, so we didn't hear exactly why she opposed to gay marriage, but this is what she said about homosexuality.
"How would you react if one of your son told you that he lives with a man?
-I'll invite them for dinner. The deportation made me think a lot about homosexuality, if there was homosexual relationships in the camps it's the proof that there was still some love, some humanity"

"Emmanuel Macron assassination plot foiled by French police"


http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/03/europe/macron-assassination-plot-foiled/index.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/03/emmanuel-macron-to-set-out-his-vision-for-french-renaissance

What might that mean? Mixed-member proportional?

It means he'll forget about it a couple months from now and never bring it up again.

So in his first major public address he said that the Parliament has to pass this reform within a year or he will call a reform, but he will drop this in two months? Yeah, sure, it would be a great way to sabotage himself.

The term 'dose' seems to me that whatever is passed (or indeed proposed and then lost in the shuffle) will be some form of additional member system of top-up members.

Also lol at the typical bargain basement populist "what if we just cut the number of MP's!!!".

Centre-Left president Emmanuel Macron's Centre-Left Prime Minister Édouard Philippe is announcing a bunch of policies at the moment, including cutting spending by 3% of GDP and cutting the national tax burden by 1% of GDP.

The good news is that any reforms to the ISF have been put off until 2019 at least.

Confidence vote on the Prime minister's speech

For: 370
Against: 67
Abstain: 129

disgusting

Vote by group

LR
For: 1
Against: 23
Abstain: 75

Constructifs (LR-UDI)
For: 12
Abstain: 23

Nouvelle Gauche (PS)
For: 3
Against: 5
Abstain: 23

God I hate that refrain. Hate Hate Hate Hate HATE. I'd vote against the whole proposal even if I agreed with everything else.

F**king useless. Hamon was right to leave.

I'm also against this, but the idea is not "if we cut 100 MPs we will save 2 millions per year" but to reduce the number of MPs and to keep the same budget to give more power to the MPs (to hire more assistants, etc.)

The don't need to give "more power" to individual MPs. If anything we need to give less power to individual MPs while increasing the power of the parliament as a collective. And more importantly, guaranteeing meaningful representation by not having MPs be elected in giant constituencies.

If you really want to cut the number of MPs, just abolish the Senate for f**k's sake.

Heh. the French Senate is basically one big rotten borough, isn't it?

3%? Isn't that 75 billion? That's more than what Macron promised during the campaign. It keeps getting better :)!

You can give all the powers you want to the Parliament but if you don't give to each MP the ability to effectively use these powers the Parliament will remain what it is today.
The French Parliament isn't powerless but it suffered until now of MPs not fully committed to their mandate. Let's hope that will change with the end of dual mandates.
To give to each MP more ability to form a team of qualified assistants for example, can't hurt the Parliament if that means that the MP will be able to perform a better work in all of his missions.

I would have prefer to keep the actual number of MPs and simply increase the budget, but that's not really possible now in France.

As for this proportional representation dose, with the French electoral system that will probably be a mess, for just a symbolic results.

Go Macron! I'm actually pleasantly surprised with him thus far.

Can you flesh out Hamon's motivations, and what state the PS is in, ideologically? I must say that vote is at odds with how I expected the current PS to act (mainly informed by electing Hamon as their leader).

Oh come on, don't tell me MPs don't have enough resources to do their job well if they wanted to. A few of them have been doing admirable work actually (René Dosière, Gérard Bapt). It's just that most of them don't give a sh*t about their job besides rubber-stamping what their leaders want to pass. And that sure won't be helped now that FBM has completely personalized French politics and 350 MPs owe their political future to him alone.

Hamon is from the PS' left, unlike most of the MPs that were reelected last month. He opposed all of Hollande's right-wing legislation and resigned the government when it became clear he was going to go full supply-side. His campaign was centered around UBI, shortening the workweek, tackling workplace stress, taxing the rich, and radical measures against climate change. It's clear now that the PS will never provide an effective platform for these ideas.

A French député has only less than €10,000 to pay their assistants, a German MP has more than €20,000, a British MP around €15,000. You named René Dosière, a very good MP indeed, when the Fillon's scandal broke he said that he had to pay his assistants on his personal budget for the parliamentary expenses, because with €10,000 he couldn't hire a good team of assistants.
You're right when you say that most of MPs don't (or didn't, we can't judge yet for the new MPs) care about the Parliament but in my view it was because many of them had one, or several, local mandate.
And basically, since the beginning of the Vth Republic (and it's more obvious since 2002), any legislative majority is build around (or against) the President, not just with Macron but it was already the case with De Gaule, Mitterrand, ... And unfortunately any proportional representation will confirm that.

Simone Veil will be buried at the Panthéon with her husband.

Time to pull the plug on PS, just as it was done with SFIO.

Wow, this Macron-submarine thing is so similar to young Putin, when he flew by military jet to Chechnya

Are you saying Macron is Putin and Hollande is Yeltsin?

I guess to continue that comparison, Le Pen is Zhirinovsky.

I'm not saying Macron is Putin, but young Putin with his "strong but liberal person who unifies Russian society" image had some similarities.

Zhirinovsky no way is Le Pen, maybe Zyuganov

Thanks, I wasn't too far off, just didn't realise the political collapse had hurt the parliamentary PS left more than the right. What do you think of the prospects for his new party? I wonder (no doubt wishful thinking) if it might counter-intuitively allow for/force more cooperation on the Left since they're so disunited that they'll never get in the second round unless voters rally around one.

I don't have very high hopes for his movement (or the non-FI French left in general) right now, but I try to keep up some hope. Hopefully he ends up as an ally and potentially a voice of sanity within a broader left alliance, but it's a long way to there.

My governing party sucks so much I'd gladly take someone like Macron over them anytime.

I wouldn't worry, the left in France has been in this sort of situation multiple times in the past (1969, 1993...), fundamentally there are just too many left wing people in the country.

That and people are unlikely to appreciate Macron making them poorer

Does anyone have a breakdown (exit poll) of how the supporters of candidates eliminated in the first round voted in the second one? Came across this but not sure how accurate the pollster is: http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2017/05/07/resultats-de-lelection-presidentielle-2017-marine-le-pen-a-se_a_22074294/

Ipsos, election analysis (http://www.ipsos.fr/decrypter-societe/2017-05-07-2nd-tour-presidentielle-2017-sociologie-electorats-et-profil-abstentionnistes)

Fillon's voters: Macron 48%, Le Pen 20%, blank/void ballot 15%, abstain 17%
Mélenchon's voters: Macron 51%, Le Pen 7%, blank/void 17%, abstain 24%
Hamon's voters: Macron 71%, Le Pen 2%, blank/void 10%, abstain 17%
NDA's voters: Macron 27%, Le Pen 30%, blank/void 20%, abstain 23%

I'm surprised with NDA's voters. I always thought he and Le Pen were pretty close ideologically.

What about a curcial part of the electorate: Cheminade's voters?

NDA party is pretty much FN for people not liking/hating Le Pen family, willing to work with the mainstream right-wing parties or finding FN too extreme/unfathomable for them.

Some of those people would never vote FN, under any circumstrances.

I'd honestly love to know.

Interesting... I somewhat expected more Mélenchon/Le Pen voters.

Macron Job Approval (IFOP)
Approve: 54% (-10)
Disapprove: 43% (+8)

That is quite brutal to be honest. He was going to see his approval rating go down but not so quickly, that is likely the results of his recent controversies

How does the military cuts and the resignation of the Head of Armed Forces make such an impact? I always thought being Minister of FA and Minister of Defense was actually quite an easy portfolio to handle judging by Fabius and Le Drian's approval ratings as people didn't seem to care, but now it seems to have undone Macron's early momentum.

Probably a big impact, the resignation of the Head of Armed Forces was described by the media as a unprecedented crisis between the Army and the President since the beginning of the Vth Republic.
And it's probably not just the military cuts but the budget in its whole. First the government seemed to prepare a delay for the tax cuts, finally they decided to start the tax cuts as soon as next year in exchange of budget cuts. That leave a bad impression of improvisation.

For approval ratings, historic perspective by Ifop
Sarkozy 2007: 66%
Hollande 2012, De Gaulle 1965: 56%
Macron 2017: 54%
Chirac 2002: 53%
Mitterrand 1988: 49%
Mitterrand 1981, VGE 1974, Pompidou 1969: 47%
Chirac 1995: 39%

Presidential election poll, 6 months after (Ifop)

Macron: 28% (+4)
Le Pen: 21.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18% (-1.5)
Fillon: 15% (-5)
Hamon: 7% (+0.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 5% (=)

A little surprised by Le Pen, I was expecting a significant drop in her support since she is in a very bad shape since the presidential debate.

Why is Fillon a candidate lol? Is he seriously considering running again or is this more of a poll see how people would vote knowing what they know now (like the Obama vs Romney polls after the Obamacare implementation fiasco)? And I guess Fillon's drop is explained by Macron eating up centre-right voters? Or did new scandals emerge?

I'm not *surprised* regarding Le Pen. She had a solid base of support in 2012, so it is just starting to erode. I still expect her to lose much more in elections with lower turnout.

https://www.ft.com/content/3d907582-b893-11e7-9bfb-4a9c83ffa852

Supply-sider Macron slashes taxes.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41966245 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41966245)

...wow, that is f**ked up. I genuinely had no idea. Hope they change it soon.

There was a territorial election in Corsica today, the alliance of autonomists and separatists has a massive lead in the first round, they won more than 45% of the vote, another separatist list won less than 7% of the vote. They will probably gain a majority of the vote in the second round next week (and a huge majority in the next Corsican assembly).

The autonomists and separatists want to gain autonomy in the next few years but reject the idea of independence (at least for this decade).

The results: (all the lists winning more than 7% of the vote can be in the second round)
Nationalist alliance: 45.36%
Right-wing regionalist: 14.97%
LR: 12.77%
LREM: 11.26%
Separatists: 6.69%
Communists/Unsubmissive Corsica: 5.68%
FN: 3.28%

Turnout was low, 52.17%

Hamon has changed the name of his movement again or is it another breakaway?

M1717 was a temporary name until an official congress happened.

The PS didn't even bother to run a list??

The Corsican PS was already barely alive before the regionalist rise and En Marche creation.

Macron was a con, a mistake to elect.

muh great liberal hero

Either him or the Nazi, so yeah he's alright.

I think the most satisfied electorate Macron will have are Left-accelerationists.

At this stage I'd vote for Macron over someone from LR in 2022 lol.

Macron becomes popular again (http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Sondage-Ifop-Macron-premier-president-a-sortir-de-l-impopularite-1410374#utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&xtor=CS2-14&utm_source=Twitter&link_time=1512491278).

50% of French approve the job of Macron as President according to Ifop for Paris match, up 6 points since November, 48% disapprove.

It's the first time in this poll that a President leaves unpopularity.

RIP Johnny Hallyday

RIP..real legend in France, the only one of his kind

Not a huge fan of him, but yeah a real icon in French music.

But they need to calm down, the media coverage is already insufferable, apparently a national tribute is in preparation, maybe with a procession on the Champs-Elysées...

I mean sure, RIP, but idgaf tbh.

I'm not a fan at all either, but he has been around since basically forever, especially at this time of year - so it's a bit weird for him to suddenly not be.

The media reaction has been ridiculous though.

Xavier Bertrand leaves LR after Wauquiez’s election

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/11/france-impose-total-ban-mobile-phones-schools/

Good, now ban laptops from university classes.

(except computing, math, business modeling, etc. classes where it may be necessary)

yeah, but even computing now some courses just straight up get you to start writing code on paper.

That's straight-up incompetence, I would argue.

Yeah its crazy for CS.

Regardless a lot of econometric work I did we did in a computer lab, and obviously we had the software available on the pc for assignments if we wanted. But personal laptops were a hinderance otherwise. So are phones.

Bit sensationalised but there was a good feature about attention economy on the BBC the other day : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoIufBVLDvM

Maybe an update on Macron's popularity.

While he suffered a free fall in his approval ratings in the summer (unprecedented since Chirac 1995), and was on his way to become the most unpopular president in History, his numbers stabilized in September and since are improving.

A new poll released today (Ifop for JDD) shows that 52% of French approve Macron's job as president (up 6 points in a month, 10 points in two months), another poll (Ifop for Paris Match) has him at 50%. Other polling institutes (BVA, Harris, and Odoxa) have him on the high 40s and will release their December's numbers soon.
In two other polls (Ipsos and Elabe) his numbers are around 40%, but in those two poll, even after his inauguration, he never was at 50% and their undecided numbers are high.
His favorability rating is also improving, with 57% of favorability, 3rd among French politicians.

A such movement toward popularity after becoming unpopular is unique in normal circumstances. It only happens with Mitterrand and Chirac during cohabitation periods, and for Chirac with the Iraq crisis in 2003.

The reasons given by the pollsters to explain this movement are that the people are the feeling that Macron is doing what he promised during the campaign, they feel that his policy is coherent, and they approve his credibility as President especially on the international stage.

There hasn’t been a single good French President since WWII. Macron included.

First poll for the 2019 european election, Ifop for Le Figaro

LREM: 26%
FN: 17%
FI: 14%
LR: 12%
PS: 8%
DLF: 6% (Dupont-Aignan)
Greens: 4%
Center-right: 3.5%
Others: 3%
Communists: 2%
Patriots: 2% (Philippot)
UPR: 1.5%
Far-left: 1%

Obviously a very bad poll for LR and Wauquiez, but I have a hard time to believe that FN and DLF are that high.

Marine Le Pen has made FN look credible to many. I'm not surprised they are doing so well at all.

I'm much more surprised at the Aignanites pulling 6% than I am about FN.

Is the Center-right UDI or are they the LR split-offs?

Since the presidential debate Le Pen has lost a huge part of her credibility.

UDI and Agir, a new party formed by former LR members.

they reached almost 25% and finished first in 2014, so polling at 17% is quite bad.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42674724 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42674724)

I love French bread in general, but the baguette specifically is overrated.

Calm down m8.

Either:

-They too ashamed of their culture
-They can't find anything worth saving to the 'World Heritage'
-They think UN could steal their fishes in their seas and thus it would automatically deprive the 'World Heritage' from 'Fish and chips' and then they find that this doesnt make sense at all
-They prepare a BreUNxit
-They don't give a penny
-They too, like me, are quite puzzled by that freezing of the world culture, in which moreover some things are entitled to be part of 'Humanity Heritage' and some are not.

Moreover, the BBC article, or even Macron for that matter doesnt even specify whether it is about the baguette from the bakery which is on the main road or the little one that is on the corner of my street, which frankly is way better, and the one worth saving if any.

I wasn't Emmanuel Macron last time I checked...though I do like baguettes.

It wasn't addressed to you, ffs. :P You wanted me to change the quote to read Emmanuel Macron?!

Of course not. But you didn't have quote me, you could have just gone back to the article and posted from there... like Benwah did.

Macron waving his baguette in everyone's face, calling it the envy of the world... Jesus! If you want people to eat your baguette just ask nicely.

Honestly, this was a totally natural result of declaring Neapolitan pizza a world cultural treasure or whatever and exactly why doing so was an incredibly stupid idea. Now every country’s culinary traditions are going to become world cultural treasures because there’s nothing particularly special about Neapolitan pizza as compared to dozens of other recognizable foods. Can’t blame Macron.

Marine Le Pen proposes changing National Front party name to National Rally. (http://www.euronews.com/2018/03/11/french-far-right-leader-proposes-changing-national-front-party-name-to-national-rally?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1520783458)

This whole time I thought she was going to make it something completely different

Meet the new party name...same as the old party name. :P

What’s even the point of changing the party name if the party itself stays the same? This applies to les republicans as well. Do they think voters are so stupid they will not know that it’s still the same party?

Actually, FN, was a historically marked brand with all kinds of 'very annoying stuffs' that would annoy most average people, and maybe its current leaders first.

And maybe still more leaders of other parties around them, which prevented a good deal of alliances so far between people that would sometimes be close enough but that wouldn't ally with someone officially branded 'Devil', that's also the openly claimed new tactic of MLP about that, not that it would necessarily work, it's to be seen, but they lost so much since May 2017 that they might think they haven't much more to lose in doing so.

Ah, and, also, good bye daddy.

Will Generation.s and Les Patriotes have any chance of making somewhat of an impact?

At this point, I wouldn't even like to predict where things fall on the left - Melenchon is far too flawed for many leftists, the PS are broken, and Hamon doesn't really seem like the guy who will lead anything anywhere.

You can bet your house that Philippot won't go anywhere. If he gets anywhere near to where Mégret did it will be a miracle

So the ongoing mega strike/shutdown in Mayotte is probably worth a metion, as it has lasted all week and brought the island to a standstill (schools closed, barricades set up along the main roads...) and is threatening to disrupt the special legislative election on Sunday.

There has been simmering tension in Mayotte for a while now (as seen in the fact the 95% Muslim islands gave Le Pen 28% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election last year) that is chiefly to do with crime/insecurity and the huge levels of illegal immigration from the Comoros.

About half of the island's population are Comorian immigrants, the vast majority of whom are in an irregular situation. Mayotte is already by far the poorest department in France, and the huge population growth/immigration has been blamed for the high crime rates on the islands, struggling infrastructure and the growing number of people living in informal settlements

A machete attack on a high school last month was the final straw which led to the current mass strike - which has been handled, lets say badly, by Annick Girardin, the minister of overseas territories.

...and, worth noticing given the preceding discussion, maybe for the first time Marine Le Pen, already testing her new strategy, called to vote for the LR candidate in that coming legislative there.

So he's still alive?

Sarkozy is in custody since this morning, questioned by police over claims of an illegal financing of his 2007 campaign by Gaddafi. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/20/nicolas-sarkozy-police-custody-french-president-campaign-funding-libya)

Well, tout doit disparaître afterall, well, hopefully...

Witch hunt by dictator Macron.

Not really, it's just a new episode the Libya funding scandal. The first arrests and custodies were in March 2015, a time where Macron was Economy Minister.

Lol

Sarkozy is indicted for passive corruption, illegal campaign financing and concealment of Libyan public funds.

You shouldn't underestimate the PS. They have survived many crises so far, and have a strongest basis than it's usually thaught.
The problem for us (I'll say us since I'm an active member of the PS) is that the next election is the european election, the one where we're the most divided. Génération.s has a clear position, and if Hamon runs at the top of the list, he could have some result. Mélenchon is also clear about Europe (he fights for "Independance"), and En Marche is clearly pro Europe. This will be hard...

Actually, Sarkozy spearheaded the strike that took Gaddafi down. Some say he did this so that the Libyan funding of his campaign would not be found; Sarkozy himself has, I believe, alleged that Gaddafi and his son fabricated this in order to strike back at the man they feel to be responsible for taking them out of power. Sarkozy isn't indicted - he's now formally under investigation and has been released.

A poll for the 2020 municipal election in Paris (1st round)

- LREM list led by B. Griveaux (member of government): 32%
- PS list led by A. Hidalgo (incumbent): 29%
- LR list led by F. Bethout (mayor of Paris 5th): 22%
- FI list led by D. Simonet: 11%

If LREM endorses PS list:
- PS: 41%
- LR: 38%
- FI: 12%

If LREM endorses LR list:
- LR: 40%
- PS: 38%
- FI: 12%

Hidalgo approval rating is at 42%, extremely low for a mayor.

With the electoral system in Paris, if LREM, PS and LR maintain their list in the second round that would probably mean no majority.

I haven't personally checked, would Hidalgo still endorse 'PS' to run? Would she go with her 'women movement'? With a Parisian label? With anything else?

That is if we are sure she even runs (did she said anything about it?), opposite would be surprising though. Anyways, that's a bit early to have very relevant polls on that anyways, given that the next election next year is fully different from that?

It's not a PS list, but a united left list, with communists and greens with Hidalgo

Article in French: former candidate for presidency and former environment minister Ségolène Royal could run for Paris mayorship if Hodalgo doesn’t: http://m.leparisien.fr/politique/municipales-2020-a-paris-l-hypothese-segolene-royal-25-03-2018-7628412.php.

Royal is like coriander for the PS, some love her passionately, others hate her virulently. So if she really enters the race, the Parisian PS will be a more deadly battleground than the Democratic Party was about Hillary.

Does Melenchon have a successor on the Left, or does he plan to run in perpetuity?

Haha lol Segogo

oh my God please not Ségogo

He has some politicians with him that could success him: MPs like Alexis Corbière, Adrien Quatennens, Eric Coquerel are the most known. But they are not so charismatic than he is

What about François Ruffin? I saw a documentary about the French elections in the Netherlands which followed his campaign as a part of the documentary. He looked like someone who could make an impact in the future.

If the Communists take over the Left Front, Ian Brossat would be a good nominee.

hahahahahaha

I am supporter of FI and I watched Merci Patron... Very fun film!

Another judicial development for Sarkozy, in a case of the corruption of one judge of the Court of Cassation the investigating judges have decided that he will go on trial. Sarkozy can appeal this decision.

#LockHimUp

Tomorrow rail workers are starting a big strike. 2 days of strike per week during 3 months. This could be a real challenge for Macron and the government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/02/france-mass-rail-strikes-macron-reforms-face-opposition

The strikes are because Macron wants to reform the SNCF to introduce "competition" and to take away many of the perks associated with cheminot (ie railway worker) status - which have been blamed for, among other things, the SNCFs funding problems (and "lazy overpaid public sector worker" tropes); as well s to introduce more "competition" to the

Of course, rather than considering why the SNCF has funding problems, this has been used to launch into an attack on one of the few remaing decent working class jobs. Which is a sad indictment of Macron and the priorities of the modern economy really.

That's a novel expression!


What are the reform proposals? Does he intend to introduce open-access railway operators?

The introduction of competition has been voted in 2016.

This reform is aimed to prepare the SNCF to face the competitors.
The legal status of the company will change (no longer a public company but a share company owned by the State)
The legal status of the workers will disappear for the future workers (all the workers under the current status will keep it until retirement). The introduction of other companies will lead to a new collective agreement, and some of the advantages of the current status will probably be abolished (free tickets for the worker and his family, retirement age, ...)
The SNCF has also a huge debt (more than 50 billions euros), the government could announce soon that the State will take at least a part of that debt.

A huge change is happening right now.
As you know, France is a laïc Republic, the State and the churches are separated.
But Macron decided to go to the annual conference of French bishops, and said “the bond between the [carholic] Chuch got damaged. It is incumbent upon us to repair it”.
The Left is on fire. Macron was seen as a defender of the low of 1905 that separates the State and the churches. A lot of moderate socialists voted for him because Hamon was unclear about laïcisme (especially with muslims). Then Macron said there was a danger of “radicalisation” (a word often used for terrorists) for the defenders of this law. And now this...

Is it very surprising that Macron and moderate political Catholicism have a political affinity? This was already my mental model of Macron, but I am an outsider and sadly, I read poorly and slowly in French.

He talked about the dialogue between the State and the Church not the formal relationship between them.
There is no huge change happening, really.

Spending cuts - check
Tax cuts - check
Labour reform - check
Immigration restrictions - check
Dialogue with Catholic Church - check

Thanks president Fillon!

Ok I know this isn't entirely true. Macron ran on economic reforms anyway so that shouldn't be a surprise, and they still are less far-reaching than Fillon would have liked. But it's still funny :P.

Yeah, as much as I despise FBM this strikes me as a nothingburger. It's shameless pandering, sure, but it doesn't really mean anything.

Ifop poll, presidential election 2022, 1st round (http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Sondage-Ifop-un-apres-la-presidentielle-Macron-au-plus-haut-1498703#utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&xtor=CS2-14)

Macron: 36%
Le Pen: 23%
Mélenchon: 16.5%
Wauquiez: 8%
Hamon: 7%
Dupont-Aignan: 6%
Others at 1% or under.

Ifop also polled the race with the 2017 candidates : Fillon does better than Wauquiez (12%)

1 year after, 42% are satisfied with Macron (Hollande 2013: 21%, Sarkozy 2008: 28%, Chirac 2003: 58%)

Macron:
is authoritarian: 73%
has authority: 73%
knows where he is going: 67%
has a vision for the country: 58%
is competent: 57%
defends the interest of France: 55%
is likable: 53%
is honest: 48%
is sincere: 44%
is fair: 37%
is capable to unite the French: 33%
understands the concerns of the French: 30%

The poll shows the joke about 'President for the Rich' may have some legs.

Thanks. Those are remarkably good numbers for Macron, albeit after a short time.

Help me get my MA.

I've heard France has a regulatory body that regulates election polls before publishing. Does anyone have any information on it, preferably in English? or the law it operates according to which?

secondly, does anyone have a concentrated link to the results of the big elections polls at the eve of the last presidential elections? I remember seeing some chart here but I can't seem to find it.

thanks in advance

Hashemite is the one here who'll know the answer to that kind of thing - recommend contacting him directly.

It's the commission on polls (http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr) created by the law 77-808 (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/affichTexte.do?cidTexte=JORFTEXT000000522846) (sorry only in French)
But the rules are quite simple: before publishing a poll, a polling institute must make a declaration to the commission (article 7 of the law) in which they promise to follow the rules (to publish some information with the poll (listed on article 2), and to give to the commission a notice of the poll (article 3)). If they don't follow those rules, the commission can order the publication of a statement (article 9).
If a company publishes a poll without being registered or refuses to publish the statement they can be fined up to €75,000 (article 12).
The law also says, in the article 11, that no poll can be published the day before an election.

You can find all the polls on Wikipedia for the 2017 (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27élection_présidentielle_française_de_2017), 2012 (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27élection_présidentielle_française_de_2012), 2007 (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27élection_présidentielle_française_de_2007) and 2002 (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27élection_présidentielle_française_de_2002) presidential elections

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/05/02/macron-calls-australian-leaders-wife-delicious-and-demonstrates-the-perils-of-diplomacy-in-a-foreign-language/?utm_term=.cb069e2b036b (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/05/02/macron-calls-australian-leaders-wife-delicious-and-demonstrates-the-perils-of-diplomacy-in-a-foreign-language/?utm_term=.cb069e2b036b)


I'm LMFAO.

LREM now want to force municipalities to start selling off their Social Housing stock, aping a policy that has been absolutely disastrous wherever it has been implemented.

Absolute scum...

He does like older women.

So what do other French think of the strikes? After more than one month, it seems it will be able to continue like this until the end of June with no one conceding. Meanwhile the law will have been voted and Macron will reinforce his "can do" image (and according to the poll posted above, his "authoritarian" and "knows where he is going" image).

I also guess the State will accept to take back some of the debt of the SNCF as most of it is due to political decisions (construction of high-speed lines for example). It would be unfair for the SNCF to start facing competition while hampered by a debt they are not responsible for.
Of course the govermnent will negotiate the conditions since increasing the State debt is the last thing they want.

I think the government has won this battle: no popular support for the strike, the number of people on strike is decreasing, the media coverage is now very low, ...
The bill will be on the Senate floor soon and this could be an opportunity to some unions to end the strike (if the bill is amended to include the debt, the investments in the infrastructures, ...)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/manu-emmanuel-macron-scolds-teenager-nickname-french-resistance-event-today-2018-06-18/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/manu-emmanuel-macron-scolds-teenager-nickname-french-resistance-event-today-2018-06-18/)


Macron clearly has no sense of humor.

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Missing my main man Hollande everyday tbh. He knew not to take himself seriously.

Officially updating my nickname for him from Flawless Beautiful Macron to Flawless Beautiful Manu.

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Sorry

Bit late but, Les Guignols de l'Info is finished for ever. Seeing as that was the show that introduced me to politics, it seems worth marking.

Didn't their network get bought by a rich dude who hated Les Guignols?

I think he'd wanted to kill them for a while. They were well passed the glory days though, I was kind of surprised anyone still watched them

Yeah, I hadn't watched them for years. Maybe it's because of the time at which I used to watch it religiously, but I've always kind of associated Les Guignols to the Chirac/Sarkozy era, particularly the former. At that time, it was a classic.

Yeah, I hadn't watched them in a long time and I'm not too heartbroken about this, but it's still sickening that they ended the way they did. Bolloré is a piece of sh*t.

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May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

Please let there be a Front de Guache plurality
What have Les Republicans done?

Couldn't have happened to nicer guys.

Still beats Hamon's 6%.

For comparison, Hollande was at almost at exactly the same level at this stage in his presidency - and that was despite a much worse economic situation

Hollande was already in the mid 20s at this stage. And this is one of the worst polling institute for Macron, the other have him at around 40%

In this poll Mélenchon is at 30%, Hamon at 20%, Le Pen at 17%, Wauquiez at 13%.

Unemployment in 2013 was 10-11%. Now it's 9-10%. My impression of the French economy - though I'm not there very often - is that the job situation has hardly changed in 6 years, while wages have just kept up with prices until the last year, as eurozone inflation has risen toward 2%. The student towns are doing fine and I don't see many other parts to judge. These are not objectively awesome conditions.

In France, the student towns are, with probably the exception of Poitiersle, the same thing as the big cities - which has always been part of the problem.

Anyway, that is almost the point as to why Macron is not popular despite better top line economic conditions. Until the last few months, the direction of travel had been declining unemployment etc, etc... But the fact that this trend of improvement, which was already heavily reliant on increasing numbers of CDD's, has stalled, plus the strikes and controversy surrounding his economic reforms (although admittedly, the circles I move in are likely to be far more angry about the content of them than the average French person) can easily explain why his popularity is eroding so quickly.

Or it's just part of the French national psyche to hate whoever is president, which makes obvious sense to anyone who has ever met a French person.


Yes, as in 2017, Macron is very much the beneficiary of how impressively pathetic both the left and right are.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

My best guess is Wauquiez if he reaches the run off:

-he would get all the RN easily as they're ideologically close
-And I think he could get enough abstention/blank ballot from the left.


I mean, LR+RN+DlF often poll at 35-45% after all.

Agreed

I know the left doesn't like Macron, but surely the prospect of a Wauquiez presidency would terrify them? Besides, Wauquiez doesn't look popular at all. A lot can change during 4 years but as of this moment he has crashed even below Fillon's polling numbers.

My best guess today is that the run-off is Macron versus not Wauquiez or centre/left.


Ha. Well, I love them as a country anyway. I'd also probably resent a series of governments that kept unemployment at 9 to 11%. But what's to be done? It seems the median French hates both trade unions and liberal reforms. And then blame Sarkozy/Hollande/Macron?! A tiny improvement in joblessness and inflation goes up. No spare capacity? What's to be done?

Don't underestimate the impact of the driving speed reduction that was just implemented. By far the most unpopular decision of this government so far.

That is true

Well, Wauquiez is terribly unpopular but his party reaches out the third place for the european not far away from the RN.

He's ideologically angling the "anti globalization" program. He would obviously not get many votes from the left but getting enough abstentions is definitely a possibility.


Wauquiez is a tough campaigner. He has overperformed his national party many times on the elections he ran. I have been thinking for example about his easy reelection victory in 2012 for his legislative seat while Hollande carried it, his election to the presidency of Rhone-Alpes-Auvergne while the fondamentals weren't particularly favoring his 5 point victory etc etc.


So honestly he's being weakaned right now, but he shouldn't be underestimated.

Macron approval-rating 80% tomorrow morning. :P

Well, 20 years ago these were Chirac's approvals...

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+14 between June and August 1998.

One more reason I was rooting for Croatia... :'(

You're french...

And?

Pretty extraordinary story that should put Macron in hotter water than he currently in.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44898387

EDIT : given Colomb knew about it the day after the events happened, he looks like he will be the next senior political casualty of the Macron government. Manu himself will have the same plausable deniability as Mitterand did with the Rainbow Warrior, but all evidence seems to suggest that he was informed of Benella's misconduct.

This is probably the most stupid scandal ever, why would you ruin everything to protect a guy like that...

Because FBM has lived all his life as a spoiled rich kid who could get away with anything, and couldn't fathom what it's like to actually be held accountable?

That’s your biased perception of Macron...
No, the problem is that he is very loyal with the people who are loyal with him. Just like it took weeks to fire Bayrou and Ferrand last year.

I'm not quite sure that saying FBM is a spoiled rich kid who got away with anything (except his love affair with his teacher, at first) is a 'biased perception'. It's much closer to an objective fact, and FBM confirmed that with his outburst at the kid who called him 'Manu'.

Because it's shocking that the President should be call "M. President" instead of "Manu" during an official ceremony to commemorate the death of hundreds of Resistance fighters during WWII?

(real) big surprise: no boost for Macron after the WC:

BVA poll (07/18-19)

Bad opinion of Macron: 59 (+6)
Good opinion of Macron: 39 (-2)

And the actual scandal will not improve the popularity of Macron: each day adds bad news: lies, new informations,... it's a soap.

To be honest, I'm suprised by the fact that it's  Le Monde Newspaper (pro-macron) who began with this. Today, it's an "affaire d'Etat" and the interior minister is in danger.

Of course, Macron mismanaged that in an amazing measure.

Macron might not even win a second term at this point. Would it be Le Front National again in 2022, or would a Left Party go against him(he is really screwing with Unions with his privatization)

This is from an American, BTW, so I dont know the most about French Politics.

Front National (or National Rally as they are known atm) are in a bit of a factional crisis right now. Macron is fortunate enough right now that none of the major non-EM factions look broadly acceptable to the median French voter, meaning even an unpopular Macron would be able to win a run off.

NKM could beat him if she could make the runoff.

She got defeated as an last year though, and I'm not really sure she has a viable shot at leading LR for a multitude of reasons. And her niche is basically covered by En Marche itself?

She has the flaw of being the most parisian person in the world

Having quit politics probably doesn't help either

She was even too Parisian to win in Paris.

Yes he's in a lot of troubles right now. Let's see if it will remain a major issue. I honestly don't think so.

Every incumbent French President is the presumptive underdog to win reelection. That doesn't mean FBM is toast, of course, but the idea that he's some Unbeatable Titan is ridiculous.

We have the first approval rating poll done after the Benalla scandal, from Harris Interactive, with a slight gain for Macron, at 42% (+2 since June).

Ifop will release their poll tonight, we will see if they confirm the Harris poll or not.

Following the Benalla affair, the government will face two motions of non-confidence today, one from LR and one from the left. No chance of any of them passing.
At the end of this week the Parliament is going on recess for 3 weeks (and most of the political journalists also), so the govermnent and Macron are hopeful that the scandal will die down.

Who would even be the person who beats him though. Le Pen? There doesn't seem to be an obvious President or Presidential party in waiting like in the old left/right days.

"Who would even be the person who beats him?" is a question that comes up every time. Every time, it eventually finds an answer (that usually isn't one we'd have been able to predict even a year before the election).

What I am getting at is that until recently, even if we didn't know who the person would be, it was likely that the person who defeated the sitting President would come from whichever of PS and whatever the right was called at the time was out of power. The current alignment makes things more interesting.

That it does, yeah. There sure is no way to predict who it will be, but I'm confident that there will be a credible challenger whoever it may be.

So Hulot has resigned out of disappointment with Macron's (lack of) engagement on environmental issues; and the flawless one's approval rating has continued to drop down to 34%

Very good, carry on

More and more French are realizing he's a fraud.

Hulot resigned over French hunting, which is totally environmentally irrelevant.

Its not just that, he listed a whole bunch of stuff he was unhappy with. This resignation was in the works since the moment he entered office, its just that the timing of it means there is now an irrelevant debate over hunting as if that was the only thing Hulot listed as being a major problem.

Neoliberal bankers don't do much to help the environment? Who knew?

Yeah, good on him for finally realized FBM doesn't give a sh*t about the environment. Took him long enough though, since it was obvious from day 1.

 <3 Macron!!! Best world leader atm!

I mean, he alienates the left, he alienates the right so...

"Beginning"? ::) ::) ::)

I wonder where Trudeau fits onto that.

IFOP poll about French-US relations, seen in the Figaro, full poll here: https://www.youscribe.com/BookReader/Index/2980304?documentId=3312816

A few results:

---

Is the following country a reliable ally/partner:
Germany:89% yes 11% no
UK: 61% yes 39%no
US: 44% yes 56% no
India: 41% yes 59% no
China: 32% yes 68% no
Russia: 22% yes 78% no

---

Do you approve of US policy in general: 20% yes 80% no

---

On the following topics, are the US an ally of France or an opponent:
to fight islamic terrorism: 74% ally 26% opponent
to face Russia: 51% ally 49% opponent
to face Chine: 51% ally 49% opponent
for safety of NATO members: 50% ally 50% opponent
for French economic growth: 22% ally 78% opponent
for European economic growth: 19% ally 81% opponent
to fight climate change: 12% ally 88% opponent

---

Do you have a good opinion of Donald Trump:
17% yes 83% no

---

Do you think most US citizens are like Donald Trump:
25% yes 75% no

---

Do you think it's important to keep a good relation between the US and Europe:
82% yes 18% no

---

Do you feel friendship for US people:
79% yes 21% no

Ipsos confirms the fall...

09/07-08

Macron

Fav: 25 (-7)
Unfav: 69 (+9) (37 very defav)

FI: 12-88 (+2 fav compared to july)
PS: 23-76 (-9)
LArem: 84-14 (-6)
LR: 25-75 (-9)
RN: 10-85 (-2)

Philippe:

fav: 26 (-6)
unfav: 63 (+7)


Hulot: 53 fav (+12), 37 defav

Looking at Macron's approval and the situation, it doesnt seem that he will be able to win a second term. While I thought he would lose the right and face Marie LePen or a clone of her again, it seems that its the left deserting him, not the right. In this case, french Atlas-ers, which party will Macron likely face? A left party, or National Rally(apparently they changed their name)?

Could Hulot face him, I wonder?

He claimed he was leaving politics for good.

Anyway, Méluche has been the most obvious opposition figure over the last year or two; but christ knows I wouldn't want to predict what will be the case in 4 years. Let's at least see how LREM hold up in the Europeans and the Municipals.

I'm surprised more people didn't say that Americans were like Trump...

The neoliberal banker is at 19% approval. Ha!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-16/macron-fails-to-convince-four-fifths-of-french-poll-shows?srnd=premium

JUPITERIEN

Interesting, I do see how he would appeal to France, especially after the terrible job Macron of the center is doing, and the right's rapid decrease in popularity. While he does seem rather good, and could help counter the right wing nationalist wave, I do worry about his threat to leave the EU if elected.

Then again, there is still, what, 4 years of Macron's term, so anything can change.

Back to reality for a second, the three most popular political forces in France are liberals who rejected social democracy, mildly Eurosceptic centre-right social conservatives, and very Eurosceptic far-right nationalists.

lol, basically

FBM is a haughty, smarmy, contemptuous little rich brat incapable of empathy, news at 11.

And re: the government falling apart, IF ONLY. Nah, he'll last 4 more years, potentially 9.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/marine-le-pen-ordered-submit-psychiatric-evaluation-over-islamic-state-n911361 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/marine-le-pen-ordered-submit-psychiatric-evaluation-over-islamic-state-n911361)


If Le Pen is forced to take the test, do you think she would pass?

Yes, there's far too much hyper-ventilation and obsession about polls, but more importantly a belief among the writer/Twitter class that criticising everything makes the critic better than the practitioner, and that nihilism is somehow clever, this place included. I would even say that too strong an interest in elections per se is kind of crass and misses the point of politics. There's a reason why the top politicians signal that they have no interest in opinion polls or what is called "wonkery". It's almost undignified relative to what democratic politics is really about, the control of the government by the people, and polls are interesting in so far as they signal successful ways to exert that control rather than as a cheering contest.

All democratic governments lose popularity or there'd be no point to elections; sitting around gloating about it doesn't allow the writer to take credit for a phenomenon that has been the case since 1945!

Indeed. Rightwing parties always talk about reducing debt but in the end they always vote for tax cuts in order to satisfy their big donors.

Mélenchon's movement, France Insoumise, is under investigation for campaign funding abuses and allegations of fake jobs at the European Parliament.

Tuesday there were police searches in Mélenchon's home and in LFI HQ. It didn't go well.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/16/french-leftwinger-jean-luc-melenchon-reacts-angrily-to-police-raids
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYRdJNvOAdg

An investigation has been opened for violence and threats against police officers.

76% of French people disapprove Mélenchon's behavior during the police searches. (56% strongly disapprove, even among Mélenchon's voters in 2017: 51% disapprove)

Is Macron stupid or something. He knew that wouldn't go over well, and he announced it anyways. It would be like Germany honoring Paul Von Hindenberg for wartime service.

It really is. Hindenberg is the single person most responsible for Hitler becoming Chancellor in the first place. If he'd just said no to Hitler in 1933, we might have avoided World War Two...or at least the War being two fronts (I have no doubt the U.S and Japan would eventually have gone to war, and Pearl Harbor would've happened eventually).

Given that Hindenburg's brain was rapidly devolving into mush, there wasn't really much he could do. Blame Von Schleicher.

Even people with dementia have astounding capabilities to say no if they so choose.

We always knew the French aren't particularly high energy

He has to start being careful. He is more and more seen as a president "who takes from the poor to give to the rich". Also having 2 massive protest movements in a few months is not very common, first the one of train workers and now the "gillets jaunes".

They had a choice, Le Pen or Macron.

You reap what you sow :)

The French government is now blaming the "Ultra-Right" and Le Pen for the protests.

https://news.sky.com/story/tear-gas-fired-at-furious-protesters-in-france-11561900

Boy, they sure seem desperate.

I would feel bad for the French, but then I remember they voted for him as an "outsider", and anyone who truly thinks he is anything but a part of the elite deserves to live under him for a few more years.

Le Pen called to protest on the Champs-Elysées.
https://www.lepoint.fr/societe/gilets-jaunes-marine-le-pen-suggere-une-manifestation-sur-les-champs-elysees-23-11-2018-2273837_23.php
Marion Maréchal Le Pen demonstrated on the Champs Elysées with other RN officials
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/gilets-jaunes/gilets-jaunes-marion-marechal-a-manifeste-sur-les-champs-elysees-samedi_3053555.html
And according to police a hundred members of the ultra right were among the most violent.
https://www.bfmtv.com/societe/violences-aux-champs-elysees-une-centaine-de-membres-de-l-ultra-droite-parmi-les-gilets-jaunes-1573477.html

Maybe the cause of the protest was the fact that Macron is disconnected from the normal people, and that he increased Fuel taxes like a madman?

If he didn't do this, and the Right called people to protest, would they protest? I think not :)

Macron must not break now. Ride out the storm early, that it may end early. If he, New Napoleon that he was, cannot achieve a second term, the French Presidency is a cursed office.

EU court rejects Le Pen challenge over European Parliament funds misuse
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-lepen-eu/eu-court-rejects-le-pen-challenge-over-european-parliament-funds-misuse-idUSKCN1NX19P
I assume that Marine Le Pen is loaded, or at least her backers and associates. Why risk getting fined over a few few bodyguard hires when you can get the money elsewhere?

Also France CGT union calls for strike on December 3 to protest energy policy
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-energy-strike/france-cgt-union-calls-for-strike-on-december-3-to-protest-energy-policy-idUSKCN1NW1OZ
That comes in the light of PM Macron shutting down or lessening the usage of Nuclear power plants, along with a restructuring of the main energy company.

Remember when Maron was the future of Europe and a transformational leader? Good times

That first photo is from Catalonia police violence.

He has managed to unite everyone against him. Best show of french unity for quite a long time!

He's almost less popular than Hollande was at the end of his term.

And yet, he is right about everything and is actually getting stuff done. Eventually, he'll beat these yellow-vested idiots.

Refusing to elect Le Pen was a mistake and we're seeing the results. Smh France

The only thing he'll acheive is causing fascists to take power in 2022 if he is not stopped before.

Le Pen was clearly the lesser of two evils, compared with Macron.

wait wait wait....there is a law in France saying all motorists must have a yellow safety vest?  Yeah, I'd riot too.

Nothing unusual, there's even such laws in Eastern European and Balkan countries.

If my memory serves me correctly, you need a Safety triangle, Yellow West, Chains (if winter), Spare car light bulbs, First aid, Spare tire and towing line.

That's in less developed countries, so I assume it's the same for richer countries like France.

and what's the punishment if you get caught without spare light bulbs or towing line?  Are these things checked for every time you get pulled over?  Part of a regular inspection?

It really depends. At night it's usually just checking your Drivers license and alcohol testing, but I was pulled over a few times during the day (especially during the winter season) for a detailed inspection, including checking the "mandatory equipment" and sometimes even measuring the tire groove (You need to have winter or All season tires during the winter, with the proper groove depth).

If you don't have one of the 7 items, you receive a fine. I got written up because I forgot to put the tire chains in my car (winter had just begun), but since I work online, the fine was fairly cheap for me in Bosnia (about USD 25), and it is not that expensive either way (the average salary is about USD 470-500). Obviously, bribing the police is still a big thing in most ex-Socialist Balkan countries, but you could end up giving an old communist cop $10 and get written up for attempting to bribe an officer.

Most new and even used cars already come with most of the stuff in it, the only thing you might need to do is buy a new First Aid every 5 or so years since it has an expiry date, and obviously have good tires, but that's common sense even without legislation.

I'm usually against overregulation, but I definitely think the US should also introduce something like this, since the Deaths/100,000 Cars ratio is greater than in developed EU countries, so it could maybe help, and it probably wouldn't have any large drawbacks.

Only the yellow jacket and triangle are mandatory in France, you can get a fine if they are missing.
Most of the time you get pulled over it is for alcohol tests, and if it's negative the police will probably let you go without checking anything else.
But if you are pulled over for another infraction (going above the speed limit for example) they will probably check your car more thoroughly and you may be fined if the yellow jacket is missing.

Macron communication is very bad. Pretending that the protesters do not exist, not talking about them, not talking to them. Sending his ministers to talk instead. This only makes them angrier.
Maybe he is hoping that the movement will lose momentum with Christmas/new year period. But it's 3 weeks from now and some people may well die before that. Expect similar riots next Saturday.

Three things I think that would make this hard to pull off in the US:
A.we like freedom more than Europe
2.this seems like it would be an excuse to hassle poor people
III.would give cops a legit reason to look in trunks (triangulating the first two)


I believe most (all?) states have a law saying vehicles must be kept in good and safe working condition, but I think it's usually only applied after an accident caused by whatever it was that wasn't in good and safe working condition.

I definitely understand the difference, and you're right, maybe this type of regulation is not suited for the States, although I feel like some things, like the driving rules on the interstate should be changed to those of the Autobahn, i.e. go to the left lane only if you are going faster than the other cars or overtaking, and stick to the right lane if you are driving the same speed as others. I watched a lot of close call and accident videos where lane switching for no reason (or however it's called) caused accidents.

These rules make it safe even when the speed limit (or no speed limit at all) is higher than in the US since it's a more controlled and predictable way of driving overall.



As for Macron, I think it's pretty safe to assume that he's going to lose the European election to RN, as he seems to be letting things just spiral out of control.

It will be definitely interesting seeing a new EU Parliament with more right-wing MP's than before, hopefully, it translates into a new direction for the EU, one that does not oppose freedom of speech and sensible Nationalism.

The sad part is, that IS the rule here in most states.  The amount of time we waste sitting in traffic we wouldn't have to if people just used proper lane discipline is huge.

Definitely... The amount of unnecessary braking can lead to a ripple effect in the back, seriously bogging down traffic.

However, the better "discipline" in EU countries is most likely due to mandatory driving lessons. In Austria (and even Bosnia), you can't just go do your test and be on your way. You need to pay a driving school for mandatory lessons, including theory and practice (16 Driving hours minimum), where your instructor must take you to drive on the highway and in the city, basically drilling in the rules.

When it's all said and done, a driving license will end up costing you $1600+, but I guess that's the price for more discipline on the roads.

So the government more or less caved in. Today Edouard Philippe announced that the planned increase of taxes on fuel is postponed for 6 months; it will not take place in January, but in July instead.

Additionally, the annual increases of electricity and gas prices are also postponed to July, instead of January.

Will this satisfy the protesters? Probably not, they don't want any tax increase at all, merely postponing for 6 months is not enough.

It's also making trouble for the government in terms of budget deficit. The deficit for the 2019 budget was estimated at -2.8% of the GDP, taking into account the tax increases. With these taxes now postponed, this objective of -2.8% will be more difficult to reach. The European Commission may be unhappy.

I'd have no problem with making it harder to get here, but not that expensive in costs.  Just make the test hard and more often, as it should be anyway.

I'm 45, have gotten many speeding tickets (at least 25, if not 35) and haven't taken a driving test since I was 16 and haven't taken a written test since I was 21.  I've not been in an accident that was my fault since I was 17, so that might help (and why my insurance is still reasonable), but still, crazy they haven't tested me in the last 24 years and 4 states.

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A political commentator on our national television has said that this is how revolutions start.

But that's enough about your average day in France

This presidency has been a disaster so far, I seriously doubt he runs for reelection in 2022.

We will see what will happen Saturday but I fear that the situation may get out of control.

Seriously? He's got 4 more years. Literally all economists said that benefits from reforms wouldn't come within a few months. There is a decent chance his reforms work and unemployment is down significantly by 2022. Even if unemployment doesn't drop to 7% he might face relatively weak opponents again anyway. Le Pen is toxic and Mélenchon has his own issues. PS and LR still look f**ed. Macron probably isn't going to win 67% of the vote again, but writing him off now is rather bold.

Im not writing him off, yet. Hes just clearly been a terrible president. You can argue about the economy improving or whatnot, but its clear that Macron himself is unpopular, seen as out of touch, and has almost every political ideology attacking him. Thats why I think he forgoes running again. If he were to run, he could win if the other parties squabble and bicker.

Macron is easily the best president this century. Besides, look at who the reactionaries in the yellow vests are and what they're protesting--they won't win the hearts of the coalition that carried him to victory.

Is he?  He’s not achieved any of his proposed EU reforms - the Digital Tax is basically dead and proposed French reforms of the Eurozone aren’t happening: he’s stood down on the fuel tax and much do the vaunted reforms that he proposed seem increasingly unlikely to pass.  A President on such low approvals doesn’t have the legitimacy internationally to force through EU reforms, and makes it much harder to pass domestic changes especially considering his movement is a new political movement so those in it are a lot less likely to have loyalty to it.

A big thing in Macrons campaign was that he felt like Hollandre or Sarkozy or other French presidents were too weak and folded as soon as people protested against them and, well, look at yesterday. 


He’s got a 26% approval rating and won such an overwhelming victory because he was running against a Fascist: wouldn’t take much to force a First Round loss.  Also 72% of people in France support the Yellow Jacets for whatever reason.  If you ignore three quarters of the people in your country when you need 50% to win an election, then you are incredibly stupid.

I think Macron seems himself as the politician who will make the right changes even if they are not popular. Like Gerhard Schroder for example. Or Thatcher, isn't she considered the worst UK prime minister of 20th century, while at the same time praised for her economic results?
However the French may be more rebellious than Germans or British so it may end badly.

Yeah we will see, on the other hand it's possible that many peaceful protesters don't show up. Last week if you wanted to protest peaceful it was not even possible given than the riots started even before any protest .And I assume there will be even more police.

The other parties squabbling and bickering IMO is the only way he gets reelected. Otherwise he's DOA. I actually think LREM will replace him with another candidate who hasn't destroyed their image and reputation.

The Elysée fears massive violences in Paris Saturday: the indications in the country are "extremely alarming", a hard core of thousands of people could come in Paris to "destroy and kill"

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/gilets-jaunes/gilets-jaunes-l-elysee-redoute-un-mouvement-d-une-grande-violence-samedi-a-paris_3086245.html

Right now he'd probably lose but again a reminder that the next election is in 3 years and 5 months. 3 years and 5 months ago Jeb! was leading the GOP primary polls, Clinton was squashing everyone in the general elections polls and everyone thought Trump would be Cain 2.0 or so. FFS, Macron himself only become a national politician 4 years ago. I really have to save some posts in case the economic situation improves, Macron doesn't have to do anything controversial in his last year and he faces (and beats) a weak opponent in 2022 despite not being that popular. I actually still think that is the most likely scenario as of now.

Germany obviously deserves a spot on the Security Council, as well as India. The E. U. getting a seat would be... strange.

Personally, I'd argue Japan deserves one as well.

The rise of fuel tax, initially only postponed for 6 months, has now been completely cancelled.

Well, that's effectively killed any movement toward a nationwide carbon tax here in the United States if there ever was one.  What Democratic trifecta wants to deal with a taxpayer revolt? 

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France 2018.

whoa whoa whoa.....60% of the cost of fuel in France is tax.  On top of all the other taxes you pay, no wonder regular folk are pissed.  A gas tax doesn't really hurt rich folks living in cities too much, but the "sans dents" take it in the gut.  They take in the gut enough, eventually they'll come for the ones punching them.


The French need tax relief and loosened economic rules.

see, there is some good news!

I suspect there has been some tax relief already, but it benefited the rich.

Anger is understandable when you raise taxes and cut social services, all of this accompanied by an arrogant governing style. Said this, reducing carbon emissions is urgent. The last reports are unequivocal, climate change advances more quickly than predicted and we are running out of time. Therefore it is indispensable to devote massive effort and resources, even at the cost of creating unrest by rising fuel taxes.

The problem, again, is that the anger of common people is fully justified when there's no solidarity in the effort. In other words: the rich must pay more taxes than the poor, by an amount proportional to the wealth they possess.

they don't?  Rich people in France don't pay the vast majority of income taxes?  Did they learn this from the Greeks?  Sure, regressive taxes like sin and gas taxes should be axed or at least greatly reduced, which is what the protesters are protesting about, no?

He "reformed" the wealth tax, which in practice meant a massive tax cut for the richest - that, the fact that Macron is considered as being the "president of the rich" is one of the underlying factors driving the protests.

But otherwise, yeah, the petrol tax in particular hurts lower income people who tend to live outside the major cities - and are more car reliant.

For me at least, ideologically speaking, climate change is a massive problem; but it is a problem that is mainly caused by the rich - so passing the cost of it on to the poor at the same time as giving tax cuts to rich people is outrageous.

is wiki lying to me when it says people that make more than €72k pay 41% of it to the govt in income taxes?  That ain't even rich!

That sounds more than it actually is.

I don't know the specifics for France, but in most of the EU for those taxes you get Child benefits (200 Euro per child/month in Austria), Free education for the children (University included), free healthcare and unemployment money if you are left without a job and tons of other stuff like that.

I won't go in depth since my knowledge of France is not good enough.

You pay more, but you also get more from the government, so it's not just money that disappears. Sending your children to University is fairly expensive in America if I understand correctly, so that's one of the things you pay for through taxes in the EU.

Well it's a marginal rate, so not really...

And the reforms were to the wealth tax, as in it used to tax things like shares or other financial products; whereas now it is really only a tax on real estate. So, as most people are more likely to have their wealth tied up in their homes, it was essentially punishing the middle at the expense of the rich, who are more likely to own shares and whatever.

Who would have thought that a guy who publicly fancied himself the Roman God Jupiter would face issues stemming from his own arrogance?

Yeah, and they still picked him over Le Pen...

The French people have struck a massive blow to Nationalism across Europe, let's hope they redeem themselves in the upcoming EU elections.

The situation in Paris is, for the moment, relatively calm, probably thanks to nearly 500 preventive arrests.

Let's hope it remains that way for the rest of the day.

The irony of course being that 'loosened economic rules' have been extremely unpopular when Hollande (and Macron as his Labour minister) tried them- my understanding is that this is basically the typical 'we want lower taxes but still more public spending' protest.

Well, 60% of gas costs being taxes is not exactly uncommon for European standards, here for example 58% of gasoline and 56% of diesel costs are taxes.

I'd say it's a good way to try to discourage car usage though it might need some other compensation like better public transportation or something.

Fun fact: The last French President to be reelected was Chirac in 2002 and he was facing Le Pen anyways (maybe against Jospin he loses).

The last French President to be reelected without facing Le Pen was Mitterrand all the way back in 1988!

This is clearly a situation that has yet to be fully defined by any one political actor - whether it will be known as a "typical" protest or not has yet to be determined...

the game is afoot! :)

Macron pleads for employers to give raises hoping it will calm the crowd down. Where have we seen that before??

TI-MI-ŠOA-RA! TI-MI-ŠOA-RA! TI-MI-ŠOA-RA!

Ifop poll, presidential election 2022

Macron: 27.5%
Le Pen: 27.5%
Mélenchon: 13%
Wauquiez: 10%
Hamon: 8.5%
Dupont-Aignan: 7%

Did they poll the Macron-Le Pen run-off?

61-39 to Macron

Le Pen is still persona non grata to a solid majority of the French - if Macron is going to lose in 2022 he t won't be to her

That is what puzzles me about all this talk about Macron being finished. It still seems that Le Pen would be his most likely opponent in 2022, which should secure his reelection.

39% is quite a lot though and it's better than her result in 2017. I think that in some time we will have a first poll where she passes 40% and everyone will start freaking out.

She passed 40% in many polls during the 2017 campaign, even after the first round.

That's the only reason Macron still has a chance. I think if he were going to be against just about anyone else in the second round, he'd be toast.

Even Melenchon?

Mélenchon's reputation has been seriously damaged since the election by his incapacity to move over his defeat at the election, by his aggressiveness and lately by his behavior during a judicial inquiry.
He tries to reap the benefits of the Yellow Vests crisis, even if it means to declare its "admiration" of some people who are clearly far-right extremists, but he fails.

Drouet is not really a far-right extremist fwiw, more like someone who's confusedly anti-establishment and gravitates toward the far-right for that reason (not excusing him, or Mélenchon's shameless pandering, but I just don't like it when people indulge in hyperbole like that).

The hillarious thing Mitterrand was the one propping up Le Pen and FN in order to divide the right in first place.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-royals/count-of-paris-pretender-to-french-throne-dies-aged-85-idUSKCN1PF1WT

lol

So, if France's monarchy were to be reinstated, which of the three houses would be the likeliest choice (even if all of them are unlikely), Bourbon, Orleans or Bonaparte?

If there were a double referendum, first to restore the monarchy and then to choose the royal house, who would win?

I have to imagine the House of Bonaparte has the most popular support, even if that support is maybe 0.2%.

Weren’t they the ones you support?

Probably 90% of the French are unaware of the 3 royal/imperial houses. But yes, Bonaparte is the most prestigious name, they should win.

This goofball is now the head of the House of Orleans

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And by the way, the July Monarchy was probably the best monarchic regime France ever had

There are strong rumors that Macron could decide to hold a referendum on May, 26th.

Why do you think he's a goofball?

Absolutely

Yeah lol

Good question, at any rate among monarchists, the Orléans are by far the most popular house.

It would be interesting to see how a referendum would play out, I suspect it would depend on the campaigns and who got the support of various politicians. Had there been a referendum say 60 years ago, it would have been the House of Orléans or nobody, but today it's less obvious. I still suspect the Orléans would be favorites just because they'd be the most likely to get the backing of the political right, while the left is by principle totally against monarchy (I suspect if the left had to back somebody, it would be the Bonapartes), and I think the legitimists wouldn't stand the slightest chance.

The Bonapartes may be the most popular dynasty historically overall, but nobody has wanted their restoration since the 1870s. Their fate was sealed in 1871. And then most legitimists switched over to supporting the House of Orléans after the Count of Chambord's death in 1883 (too late to get the monarchy restored in France, as it was the Count of Chambord having a Northamesque moment in 1873 that prevented a restoration then), so obviously the vast majority of French people are against a restoration, but I think on average they'd poll at about 5% (I need to find the sources where I saw that to confirm). The number seems logical, in the 1993 referendum on the monarchy in Brazil the monarchists got 6 or 7%, so it would make sense that in other countries that abolished their monarchies it would be about the same. I think out of those 5% or so, you probably would have at least 60% that would back the Orléans.

Effectivement, je viens de le voir/Yeah, I just saw that

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/02/03/01002-20190203ARTFIG00176-referendum-l-option-de-macron-pour-sortir-de-la-crise.php

OK I found a couple of polls:

This poll from 2007 (BVA being the pollster, and the poll was made for France-Soir) states that 3% of French people are very favorable to a restoration of the monarchy, and another 14% rather favorable, to make a total of 17%:

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/531/fichier_lesfranaaisetlamonarchie_b69f5.pdf

Then here's a 2016 poll also cunducted by BVA, this time for Alliance Royale though:

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/1897/fichier_bva_pour_lalliance_royale_-_les_francais_et_la_monarchiefe87e.pdf

Yet again, 17% of the population would be favourable to having a king, including 27% of LR supporters and 37% of FN voters. So yeah, it's not as fringe as you'd think. (although that being said, a restoration will never happen). At anyrate, there are more monarchists than I thought.

  Got all excited about a national referendum to be held in France, only to find out it might be about, wait for it, drum roll please... reducing the size of the National Assembly.

Yeah tbh I think that's stupid. Honestly I think it's demogoguery to tell the nation that reducing the number of MPs will actually change something. It won't, if anything it will make politicians even more out of touch as their constituencies will be even larger; and it's not the type of thing that's going to save billions of euros either, so I don't see the point.

The idea of proportional representation on the other hand seems very interesting, if the number of MPs was reduced in order to put in place PR that could be something worth thinking about.

Agreed. I think it's a funny tactic though - the gilets jaunes were demanding the introduction of the RIC, so hold a referendum about a tedious subject, then when turnout is predictably pathetic, Macron can turn around and use it as "proof" that there is no demand to have widespread referendums

Exactly

Personally if I have to choose between the 3, I would choose the legitimist claimant.

A referendum on what?

Not official yet but probably
-reducing the size of the National Assembly and the Senate
-proportionnal representation
-recognition of the blank vote

I was kidding, I know hardly anything about the guy

How would "recognition of the blank vote" work in PR?  Only way would be leaving a certain section of seats blank which... really would not be a very good idea.  I'm sceptical about reducing the size of parliaments on principle (feeds the old "politicians are bad" narrative but tends to lead to worse governance) but I don't know about France in particular and PR is probably a good idea - certainly in the short term the only hope that the wider Left has of having any real representation!

We don’t know if there will be a referendum and the questions. The recognition of blank vote is for all elections, including the presidential election. I don’t necessarily think that this could be in the referendum, I guess it would be a constitutional referendum which is more complex to organize than a legislative referendum.
For me, if those question were asked I would probably vote no to all.

Recognizing the blank vote would mean that a lot of elections would be voided so I don't think that would be workable. I don't like the idea of reducing the number of deputies for the reasons you mentioned, on the other hand PR would be a good idea (at least in theory, not sure about in practice) (I think without it, we'll probably be dealing with 1 party rule for a while, given how both the conservative right and the left are fractured, and I don't see them making a comeback anytime soon under the current system).

Ah ok lol

How would recognizing blank votes mean that "a lot" of elections would be voided? The effects of a blank vote would depend on what the enabling legislation says but, more likely than not, an election would only be voided if blank votes were an absolute majority or a plurality of votes cast over all other lists/candidates - something which has never happened in a national election in France and which would still be extremely unlikely to happen in a national election even if blank votes were to be counted as valid votes. It would probably happen, hypothetically, in some local elections with few candidates in small towns or those runoffs with only a single candidate. I don't believe that recognizing blank votes would massively increase the number of blank votes in the long term, certainly not from 5-ish% to 30% or something.

I also don't see the issue with recognizing blank votes with a PR system (besides, FBM's 'PR' idea is most likely some bullsh**t 'dose' of PR under a ridiculously convoluted system which would make a farce of the whole thing). Several countries which use PR recognize blank votes in legislative elections, like Spain and Colombia, and it doesn't necessarily imply leaving seats blank. In both of those countries, blank votes only increase the number of valid votes, which effectively raises the 'real' threshold and probably hurts small parties hovering right around the threshold (i.e. a party which wins 5.01% of the vote without blank votes being considered would win less than 5% if blank votes are recognized and therefore not get seats). In Colombia, the only real effect blank votes would have on legislative elections is if they were a plurality/absolute majority (still not legally clear which it is) over all other lists, then the election would have to be repeated. It's never happened, and will probably never happen.

The major serious issue with the blank vote is in the event of a close presidential runoff in which the winner's margin is narrow and the number of blank votes is high, which could bring the winner's percentage of the vote below 50%. I guess they could say that blank votes don't count in runoffs (and referendums) - a more esoteric argument could be made to justify this - but people would be pissed off, given that blank votes are understandably higher in runoffs (at least in France).

I love that if France were to restore it's monarchy they have three options to choose from, I imagine it would come down to something of a personality contest between the heads of the three houses, which ever is most charismatic

Ifop poll, 2022 presidential election

Macron: 30%
Le Pen: 27%
Mélenchon: 12%
Wauquiez: 8%
Hamon: 6%
Dupont-Aignan: 6%

Second round: Macron 56%, Le Pen 44%

Yes I think that's the likely scenario*right now*

https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1094381713306857472

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So Decathlon release a "sports Hijab" and all the usual suspects from across the political spectrum line up to denounce this humoungous affront to French values/laïcité/women's rights and all - but, for all that I do think there are areas where there might be a debate to be had about wearing a niqab to school or whatever, I fail to see how this isn't just straight out racism?

Why don’t they poll the Green candidate, considering they are ahead of generation.s in the polls?

They did, Yannick Jadot at 2%, suffering from a lack of name recognition and EELV always overperform at the Europeans.

Of course, polling at this stage is entirely irrelevant - remember at this point in 2014 we all thought Juppé was going to be the next president.

Good old Macron is pushing forward with the privatisation of ADP group, the company that runs the Paris area airports.

This is a company that generates about 160m Euros a year to the French treasury, and is currently expanding rapidly and becoming increasingly profitable. So why privatise it? Selling off a successful state owned company is either being driven by pure ideology, in the face of actual reality; and works out as a delightful gift from the French taxpayers to the rich.

State can receive more funds from its privatization now than later, when things can go bad for ADP?

New thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=316342