Talk Elections

Link. (https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2467)

Northam 47% (+3)
Gillespie 39% (+6)

Lean D/Tossup level.

I wonder if Gillespie can appeal in the rural Virginia areas?

I think Gillespie will keep NoVa relatively competitive.

His problem will be getting Stewart voters to turn out for him.

It might be a catch-22; lose many of either group (NoVa or Stewart supporters) if he embraces the other too much.

Most undecideds are Independents and a large chunk are between 18-34. Northman should go on the attack right now tying Gillespie to Trump.

All in an environment where Trump is unpopular as the incumbent Democratic Governor is.

If McAuliffe struggled against The C*()ch despite similar projections, I see no reason why things'll be different this time.

Plus 8 is not a toss-up. Republicans think that they are in for a landslide everywhere, but that's not accurate.

Oh boy, do you remember the polling for the 2014 senate race? Gillespie was always far behind.

I don't think Gillespie is doomed, but realistically speaking, this race Leans D.

Did Quinn change their methodology? Because I remember they used to be one of the more R-leaning pollsters. After Trump's election they've been giving Democrats their best polling results, especially in the generic ballot.

Because this year will be absolutely like 2014, Gillespie will win in a landslide. Got it.

Would it be fair to put those past races on the same level as a elections where Democrats were the ones lacking enthusiasm? This time it is the other way around.

Not really, all I'm saying is that we shouldn't dismiss the possibility of a GOP win in Virginia. Also, I don't think republicans believe they're in for landslides everywhere. They've barely survived the special elections, and the prospects of winning this governorship don't look good at all.

Different political environment.

VA Democrats were caught off guard in 2014. If turnout in the primary is anything to go by then they are pretty fired up for this one.

McAuliffe is much more popular than Trump:  Gov. Terry McAuliffe currently has a 47 to 37 percent job approval rating.
http://www.nbc12.com/story/35716863/quinnipiac-releases-first-va-governors-race-poll

Probably not a surprise that McCauliffe's approval ratings virtually mirror the poll in the governor's race.

Looks like Perriello may have been the better GE candidate but it is too early to say !

McAuliffe's approval ratings makes it hard to think the GOP will win here.  McAuliffe's NOT a real likable guy at a certain level; he's an insider and a member of the political class that is quite despised, yet he's above water as a liberal Democrat in a Southern state.  That's something to consider.

Gillespie could win, but he's certainly the underdog, at this point. He probably needs McAuliffe's approval ratings to dip even more.

New Poll: Virginia Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2017-06-20 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2017/polls.php?action=indpoll&id= 5120170620015)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 39%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2467)

Hi,

Can we get 2017 Gubernatorial Predictions since the nominees have been determined for both races?

Thanks,
heatcharger

Hi - this is in process.  Should be available on Sat.
Enjoy,
Dave

Why is McAuliffe unpopular?

I think that will be the final margin or something around, between 6 and 10 points. I don't see Gillespie doing better than Trump considering Trump's abysmal approvals

*is popular