Talk Elections

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/27/europe/germany-same-sex-marriage/index.html



Edit: changed title to reflect current events. K.

Does the "C" in CDU still stand for Christian?

Good. If it doesn't happen now, I'd like to see the Greens and FDP push it through after the election.

How do they feel being less "woke" than 'murica?

Oh, it is certainly going to pass now. SPD, Greens, and the Left are all for it and together they currently hold a majority of seats in parliament.

What had prevented it so far was the SPD's unwillingless to break ranks (and thus end the coalition) with the CDU/CSU over the issue. However, this has now changed with Merkel's announcement. Basically, they've have been granted permission by the Chancellor to break ranks.

To elaborate further, Merkel's announcement was a strategic decision on her part. In the past two weeks, SPD, FDP, and Greens had all pledged that they'd only enter a coalition with the CDU/CSU after the election on the condition that gay marriage will be legalized. Merkel then prioritized having a coalition partner over continuing to oppose gay marriage. Considering that she probably never really cared about opposing gay marriage in the first place, it wasn't that hard a decision to make.

Merkel completely discards a conservative principle that she had argued for in the recent past from one moment to the next? Color me surprised...

She probably feels embarrassed that her country is one of the few left in Western Europe that doesn't have marriage equality.

To be fair I'm surprised that she held out so long. Even a large majority of CDU voters support gay marriage according the polls. She probably just didn't want to piss the CSU off.

Same thing simultaneously here right now.

SPÖ+Greens+NEOS are pressuring the ÖVP to allow their MPs to vote freely on their joint SSM initiative that they will introduce in parliament tomorrow.

The ÖVP responds with:

"We do not comment on Germany's election campaign".

or

"We will present our own plans on SSM in our September election program."

or

"We have no pressure. This is a German-only thing."

---

Looks like the ÖVP won't vote with them tomorrow and the SPÖ has already hinted they could try again in September.

The "New" ÖVP with Kurz is not so new after all ...

Well, the ÖVP doesn't face the same situation as the CDU, as it will probably enter the government with a party that is also opposed to SSM.

And isn't the ÖVP generally more conservative than the CDU? They probably are more comparable to the CSU on social issues from what I've read.

The vote will be held this Friday.

SPD, Greens, and the Left will vote for it (320 votes). CSU will vote against it (56 votes). The CDU (253 votes) will probably be split between its conservative and liberal wings.

Because they're taking up the bill that's already been voted on by the Bundesrat, that means once this chamber votes on the bill, it becomes law, right?  (Once the President signs it of course)

This is pretty much a non-issue though so holding out didn't require much of an effort. Now some guy asks her at a softball town hall debate about the topic and Merkel responds by saying "whatever, we'll just vote on it." She's the personification of post-democracy.

Depends on the issues I guess.

On gay marriage, the CDU and ÖVP are virtually the same. Among their voters, support is similar.

With Kurz, the ÖVP has become more like the CSU again though (taking a hard-line against immigration, integration etc.)

Anyway, SPÖ+Greens+NEOS have 84/183 seats in parliament. If all of their MPs vote in favour, it would take 8 of the 51 ÖVP MPs to vote in favour of a majority. Or 16% of the ÖVP parliamentarians.

Yes, the gay marriage bill which will be voted upon in the Bundestag this Friday was already passed by the Bundesrat in September 2015. Since then, it had been held up in committee.

The full text of the bill can be found her (in German)
http://dip21.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/18/066/1806665.pdf

According to Article 3, subsection 1, the bill takes effect on the first day of the third month after its promulgation (which happens after the president has signed it).

So, the earliest possible date the law would take effect is October 1.

October 1 would be great.

It would allow SPÖ+Greens+NEOS to renew their pressure on the ÖVP, during the height of our campaign ...

That would be a nice way to end Oktoberfest.  Lots of fabulous gay weddings!  German beer aplenty at the receptions!

So Italy will be the last.

renzi seems like a better choice than kurz  re: this matter but i guess, renzi won't win anyway and kurz...nc.

I don't know...Switzerland seems to be dragging its feet.

New polls in both Germany and Austria show massive support for gay marriage:

Germany

INSA/Bild: 75% for, 20% against (adoption: 66-22 support)
YouGov: 66% for, 26% against (adoption: 57-33 support)

By party:

CDU/CSU: 73-22 support
SPD: 87-11 support
Greens: 93-5 support
Left: 84-15 support
AfD: 40-55 oppose (odd, because their frontrunner Alice Weidel is lesbian)
FDP: not asked

Austria

Unique Research/Profil: 70% for, 22% against (adoption is already legal in Austria)

The gay marriage vote in the Austrian parliament just failed a few minutes ago, after an emotional debate.

All SPÖ+Greens+NEOS representatives voted in favour, all ÖVP+FPÖ+Team Stronach+Independents voted against.

After the vote, NEOS-MP Niki Scherak took to the podium, looked over to the ÖVP bench and called them cowards. The ÖVP MPs looked down on their smartphones and tablets ...

Cuckolded

Gay marriage vote currently underway in the German parliament.

Merkel just cast a red NO vote.

Votes being counted now. Takes about 10 minutes.

393/623 voted Yes.

226 No votes

4 abstentions and 7 not present.

Merkel casts her NO vote:

()

HPs.

LOL, she calls for a vote after finally meeting some gays, and then still votes no? What a moderate hero.

Preliminary, it looks like some 80 of the 309 member CDU/CSU delegation voted YES.

Merkel keeps being a worthless moderate hero.

Vote by party:

()

Abwesend = Not present
Enthalten = Abstained
Fraktionslos = 1 former CDU member who's now Independent

---

25% of the 301 CDU/CSU members + 1 Indy who voted, voted for gay marriage.

24% of the total elected CDU/CSU delegation (310) voted for it.

Ironically, three of Merkel's most closest allies in the CDU voted for legalizing gay marriage:

Defence minister Ursula von der Leyen, Chief of Staff of the Chancellery Peter Altmaier, and CDU secretary general Peter Tauber.

In the past, there were unconfirmed rumours that Altmaier himself is a closeted gay though.

Yes and No votes broken up between CDU and CSU. Yes vote among CDU deputies was 27%, among CSU deputies 13%:


CDU
Yes 68
No 179
Abstain 4
Not present 4

CSU
Yes 7
No 46
Abstain 1
Not present 2

Breakdown of Merkel's cabinet:

CDU ministers - Three voted no, two voted yes, one isn't a member of parliament
CSU ministers - All three voted no
SPD ministers - Five voted yes, one isn't a member of parliament

Among the CDU ministers, the "no" votes were interior minister Thomas de Maiziére, finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, and health minister Hermann Gröhe. "Yes" votes were defence minister Ursula von der Leyen, and head of the chancellery Peter Altmaier.

Alice Weidel is the lead candidate of a party who specifically denounces "attempts to abolish the classic family model" and demands that the government shall promote the idea of a family consisting of a father, a mother, and their children in its election platform, while at the same time Weidel herself raises two children together with her female partner. Go figure.

The AfD's base probably tolerates Weidel because they accept the necessity to have a lead candidate who makes them look less like Nazis.

Who are the SPD and Left Party members who abstained?

They were not present in parliament.

Abstain means being present, but not vote.

These 2 representatives don't necessarily have to be against gay marriage just because they were not present. They could also be sick today and stayed home.

Former constitutional judge Hans-Jürgen Papier considers gay marriage unconstitutional, as at the times of the passage of the Grundgesetz homosexuality was indictable. Moreover, former adjudgments by the Constitutional Court always saw marriage as a union between a man and a woman.

spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ehe-fuer-alle-ex-verfassungsrichter-hans-juergen-papier-haelt-sie-fuer-verfassungswidrig-a-1155215.html (in German)

This is worrying when it comes to how the ÖVP representatives would vote on this issue here, because I guess the ÖVP would probably vote closer to the CSU than the CDU.

In fact, 16% of ÖVP delegates would have to vote Yes in an open, free vote for a majority together with SPÖ+Greens+NEOS.

Also, SPÖ+Greens+NEOS welcomed the German vote today while FPÖ and Team Stronach said it is "a vote we have to accept" but there are "much more important issues facing Austria right now".

The reaction of the ÖVP on the German vote was particularly cowardly: "We don't comment on the German election campaign".

Yesterday, when all ÖVP-MPs voted against gay marriage in parliament and looked down on their smartphones and tablets (when a NEOS-MP spoke directly to them and accused them of being cowards without a conscience), they also argued that "the Constitutional Court has to decide this issue".

Papier (CSU) doesn't break ranks with his party. News at 11.

I know. IMHO, the gay marriage act is completely compatible with our constitution, as it does not define marriage as a union between a man and a woman. But there is a low but potential risk that some conservative judges may exploit their position in order to retain their "silverware".

Hey, Australia, looks like you're being left behind in the dust, again.

Is Angela Merkel still the world leader Hillary Clinton and Bill Weld admire?

Wasn't Hillary Clinton against marriage equality until it become popular?

Marriage equality is popular in Germany and Merkel still opposes it. Does anyone have an opinion poll on how CSU voters feel about gay marriage? All the polls I saw only show CDU or CDU/CSU.

^^ I don't think so. It would be highly unusual to poll CSU voters separately.

Anyway, I think its fair to say that the CDU/CSU's voters are more liberal than the CDU/CSU party members or their MPs. So, Angela Merkel is probably more in line with her voters than with her party.

It also seems likely that she voted against gay marriage so that she didn't have to vote against the majority of her own party's MPs.

All the polls only show CDU/CSU results.

The last poll I found that shows results for CDU and CSU individually is from March 2013 (!):

In this poll, CSU-voters backed gay marriage by a 52-40 margin. CDU-voters backed it with 55-41. And all German voters backed it by a 66-30 margin at that time.

http://www.t-online.de/regionales/id_62483324/homo-ehe-gleichstellung-von-mehrheit-der-csu-anhaenger-bejaht.html

BTW:

Does anyone have an age-breakdown of MPs from the CDU/CSU that voted in favour and against ? I would assume that the ones who voted YES tend to be younger than the ones voting against.

I found this 4-year-old survey:

spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/mehrheit-der-csu-anhaenger-sagt-ja-zur-gleichstellung-der-homo-ehe-a-887559.html

According to the article, 52% of the CSU voters were in favor of same-sex marriage (as opposed to 40%). Two thirds of all Germans supported it at that time.

^^^

That's the same poll I posted 10 minutes ago ... :P

It's seems you're correct with your assumption with regards to the CDU, but not the CSU.



CDU MPs under 50
Yes 31 (40%)
No 45  (58%)
Abstain 0
Not present 1

CSU MPs under 50
Yes 3 (11%)
No 24  (86%)
Abstain 1
Not present 0


CDU MPs over 50
Yes 36 (21%)
No 133 (76%)
Abstain 3
Not present 2

CSU MPs over 50
Yes 4 (14%)
No 22 (79%)
Abstain 0
Not present 2


http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagsradar-das-sind-ihre-abgeordneten-a-928365.html#abstimmung=21

Thanks for posting.

While the under-50 CDU numbers are bad, the under-50 CSU numbers are disturbing.

Another interesting fact:

All Muslim MPs voted in favour of gay marriage today, while many Christian MPs didn't.

Will this have any effect on the election?

To narrow the age brackets down even further...


CDU MPs under 40
Yes 12 (50%)
No 12 (50%)
Abstain 0
Not present 0

CSU MPs under 40
Yes 2 (22%)
No 7 (78%)
Abstain 0
Not present 0


CDU MPs over 60
Yes 8 (11%)
No 65 (87%)
Abstain 1
Not present 1

CSU MPs over 60
Yes 2 (11%)
No 14 (78%)
Abstain 0
Not present 2

Nope, because the good economic situation will eventually outweigh the gay marriage issue.

Gender breakdown


Male CDU MPs
Yes 46 (25%)
No 137 (73%)
Abstain 1
Not present 3

Male CSU MPs
Yes 4 (10%)
No 36 (88%)
Abstain 0
Not present 1


Female CDU MPs
Yes 21 (33%)
No 41 (64%)
Abstain 2
Not present 0

Female CSU MPs
Yes 3 (20%)
No 10 (67%)
Abstain 1
Not present 1

How did the 35-or-so MPs with a migrant background vote ?

I guess overwhelmingly YES (like the Muslim MPs), because they are mostly from the center-left parties ?

Papier is Polish for "paper".

Damn Frenchies...

It's also Dutch for paper

It's also German for paper. (though emphasized on the first syllable)

Sad fact: They youngest member of parliament, Ronja Kemmer (28), voted against the bill.

In complete defiance of her age and gender group. Someone wanted to be different. :P

Atlas-style contrarianism.

Well, obviously immigrant MPs from SPD, Greens, and Left all voted Yes.


Kai Whittaker (CDU, half-British, age 32): Yes.
Martin Pätzold (CDU, half-Armenian, age 32): Yes.
Cemile Giousouf (CDU, Turkish parents, age 39): Yes.

Alexander Radwan (CSU, half-Egyptian Coptic, age 52): No.
Michaela Noll (CDU, half-Iranian, age 57): No.
Charles M. Huber (CDU, half-Senegalese, age 60): No.
Heinrich Zertik (CDU, born as a member of the German minority in Kazakhstan, age 60): No.
Kees de Vries (CDU, Dutch-born, age 61): No.


I'd say an immigrantion background doesn't really play a role. Age does.

Dutch people who oppose gay marriage exist outside of CU/SGP :o?

And now the all-important question:

How did the gay and lesbian MPs vote ?

:P

I'm asking because Alice Weidel, the lesbian frontrunner for the AfD, is personally opposed to the introduction of gay marriage - because ... the constitution apparently says so.

Peter Altmaier (CDU): Yes.
Stefan Kaufmann (CDU): Yes.
Jens Spahn (CDU): Yes.

As I mentioned before, the sexual orientation is unconfirmed in Altmaier's case, since he maintains a "don't ask, don't tell" policy for himself.



Personally, I'd suspect that Alice Weidel doesn't actually believe that gay marriage is unconstitutional, considering that she gives a sh**t about her party's platform in her private life.  She just needs a reason to oppose it as AfD lead candidate, despite being lesbian herself.

Oh, it seems I overlooked one.


Bernd Fabritius, the sole openly homosexual MP from the CSU voted... Yes.

So, the seven MPs from the CSU who voted in favour of legalizing gay marriage can be broken down as follows:

Three women, four men... leaving women a bit overrepresented considering they make up only a quarter of their party's delegation in Bundestag.

One of the men is gay himself, two others are younger than 40.

The one who really stands out is Hans Michelbach, aged 68. I'm not really sure what his story is... maybe a close relative in the family who's gay? :P

Only 5 of the ÖVP's 51 MPs are aged 40 or younger. Of which 4 are men (1 of Moroccan origin) and just 1 woman.

More than 90% of the ÖVP's representatives are old, Catholic Austrian men or women without migration background and mostly from rural areas.

The more I think about it, the more I believe their voting pattern would mirror the CSU.

Is there any noticeable difference between how constituency and list MPs voted(even in general)? I imagine constituency MPs might need to be a bit closer to their constituents' views, seeing as they have a more direct link?

Ugh, too much work to figure that one out.

Considering that many (most?) direct candidates are also list candidates I wouldn't be surprised that it plays not that much of a factor though.

Or maybe he's simply sane and reasonable.

His opinion is based on his appreciation of the wish of two people to care for each other, also financially, their whole lifetime, to rear children that otherwise wouldn't live in a family and to experience respect and tolerance from their environment, and because nobody will be taken anything if the bill is passed.

http://www.infranken.de/ueberregional/Ehe-fuer-alle-Deshalb-hat-Dagmar-Woehrl-mit-Ja-gestimmt;art55462,2745150

More like Naso-style nostalgia.

If this goes through all the way without delay, then Australia would be the last "WHY HAVEN'T YOU DONE THIS ALREADY??" country on my list.

Because as Tender Branson could tell you, Australians prefer to keep some things in the basement.

We've still got Austria too (and Switzerland, but they're more conservative).

The Bavarian government under Horst Seehofer is going to file a a constitutional complaint against gay marriage.
So is the AfD, but they aren't even entitled to do so.

Sadly, SDP is too dumb to ask the CDU to choose between SDP and CSU. Would be a wonderful to damage CDU.

Huh no, there's no chance in hell they ever would. CDU and CSU are for all intents and purposes a single party.

I'm aware. It would allow to paint CDU as backwards bigots, through.

I don't think Germans care enough about culture war issues for that to be an effective strategy.

Well, better strategy than being a floormat.

And even better strategy would be for them to actually be a social democratic party, instead of a vapid third-way empty shell.

So, when is the Bundesrat supposed to formally approve this so it can go to the President?

It already has.

Soooo...why hasn't the President signed it yet?  Seems pretty odd to me.

Why would that be odd ?

It usually takes 3-4 weeks in Germany for a bill to be signed by the President and to be officially published in the federal law gazette.

If the President signs the law this month, the law will take effect 3 months later (starting with the 1st of a month). So, the earliest date for marriages would be October 1.

Is this some sort of strange election strategy by Merkel, to have the government vote on SSM, but personally vote nay, and to time it so that it'll have been signed into law but not have taken effect as of the next election?

The President has signed the law:

http://www.heute.de/bundespraesident-steinmeier-unterzeichnet-gesetz-zur-ehe-fuer-alle-47613920.html

Marriages will start on October 1.

Blame the government who want a plebiscite on the issue, which we would already know the result of, and would end in a free vote in the end anyway, which we would have had around October last year, if Shorten had become PM.
 
All this government know how to do is spend money, which is ironic.

There are definitely others, like Switzerland.

Gays and lesbians can marry in Germany from now on (de facto from tomorrow on). 👬 🏳️‍🌈🎉

Amazing news.

I guess that means now excluding the micro countries, Austria, Switzerland, Italy, and Greece are the only Western European countries that don't yet permit gay marriage (Yes I know Greece is geographically Eastern, but politically Western) and of the G7, Japan and Italy are the only two left.  My guess is Greece will be the last of the Western European countries to legalize gay marriage while Japan the last of the G7.  Of the EU member states, currently 13 of the 28 permit it and it has been suggested once the majority of EU member states permit gay marriage it is possible the ECJ could rule in favour of it being legalized throughout the union or at least require members to recognize other's marriages even if they refuse to perform them.

1 more down, plenty more to go. Still, almost all countries outside of central/western Europe, the Americas, and Oceania still have it illegal.

()

True enough, although I would expect the developed countries to lead the way.  Unfortunately there are more countries where it remains a criminal offence (I believe around 70 today) and even 7 that still have the death penalty for it.

I still don't understand why Japan and South Korea aren't going to join the Free World. :-\

Australia is the odd one out.

They are the only developed English speaking country that hasn't legalized gay marriage.  The others: Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, UK, and US all have.  I guess there is also Northern Ireland which unlike the rest of the UK has not as UK's legalization only applied to England and Wales although Scotland did separately while several of the overseas territories have as well.

I checked the map that includes penalties in Wikipedia and India has an "imprisonment up to life". This is mad, I never thought their laws were homophobic to that degree.

Has anyone gotten a gay marriage in the Pitcairn Islands yet? Haha.

Japan would need to change its constitution and ROK is heavily Christian (e.g. Moon, who is a liberal,  tried to play it moderate on a sort of DADT gay panic in the media).

Korea is full of homophobic evangelical Christians (thank the US military for that!). Japan is way too knee-jerk conservative on literally everything (can't even get their house in order enough to make women able to inherit the throne) to think about something like this.

Unclear to me how high it is on the list of priorities in Taiwan (and I know Tsai has become rather unpopular so doesn't have the political capital to spend on it), but I would still say Taiwan is by far the best bet for same-sex marriage in east Asia sometime soon, and the courts have in theory guaranteed that it will happen in 2019 if not sooner. Chinese culture generally is much more liberal/permissive than the very traditional Korea and especially Japan, and China overall would likely be a lively liberal society today if things had gone somewhat differently at a variety of different potential junctures in the first half of the 20th century.

I think China rivals even Ancient Greece in the number of gay gods, mythical heroes, and folk heroes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_themes_in_mythology

The story is somewhat complicated. The law banning homosexual activity was declared unconstitutional in 2009, but then reinstated by a different court in 2013. There is currently a rehearing of the decision that reinstated the law pending.

Japan would have to change their constitution, which stipulates that marriage is a equal union between both sexes (which was put in to replace Meiji rules that reinforced marriage as a male led union).

Taiwan is almost certain to do it: the Supreme Court mandated it, so the Yuan will have to make a gay marriage laws sooner rather than later.

Hillariously, the Asian leader that has come closest to supporting gay marriage - Tsai aside - is that wel-renowned human rights icon ... Rodrigo Duterte.

The first German minister has married her same-sex partner:

Acting Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks married her partner Valérie Vauzanges yesterday.
They had already entered into a civil union back in 2010. The day after the Bundestag approved the SSM bill she said on an SPD rally in front of the Brandenburg Gate that she was going to propose to her partner.

()

I take pleasure in the fact that Australia will most likely be the next country to go dark blue on that map :)

mvd10's favorite CDU chancellery candidate Jens Spahn married journalist Daniel Funke on December 22. The marriage was solemnized by Essen mayor Thomas Kufen (CDU).

()

Cute couple.

Read that as sodomized.. :P

One of them is quite attractive, and the other one must be very wealthy...

Was that supposed to be a    Freudian slip? :P

Same-sex marriage was enabled exactly one year ago.
10,000 gay couples have entered into the bond of marriage ever thenceforth.

Ever since, no straight men and women have wanted to get married anymore, no child has been born, all babies that have come into the world are gay, Germany has turned into Sodom and Gomorrah, and the decline of the West has become true...  ::)

I have found a sad news article about a pioneer of the same-sex marriage.
The Hanoverians Heinz-Friedrich Harre and Reinhard Lüschow were the very first male couple that entered a civil union back on August 1, 2001. The picture of them kissing each other went across the globe.
17 years later, they were finally allowed to get officially married in a registry office. They married on October 1, 2017, the day when gay marriage was coming into effect.
Heinz-Friedrich Harre died on October 29, 2017 due to a chronic obstructive lung disease at the age of 64. :'(

()

Harre and Lüschow on the day of the registration of their civil union in 2001



()

Harre and Lüschow on the day of their marriage in October 2017

Yes, it's like God sent them a gift by letting Harre survive until they were finally allowed to marry.
They had been waiting for for 17 years and their biggest wish has eventually been fulfilled.
But it must have been very grueling to bridge the time between June 30 (the day of the rough passage of the law) and October 1 (the day of its coming into effect). And in the end, only 28 days after their wedding Harre died. Fact is stranger than fiction... 😰