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Title: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: RogueBeaver on July 24, 2017, 12:08:21 PM 44/44. (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_VA_072417/)
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: windjammer on July 24, 2017, 12:17:30 PM I don't believe that will be close in the end, something like +5-+10 for Northam.
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Gass3268 on July 24, 2017, 12:31:03 PM It's time to start tying him to Trump.
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Ebsy on July 24, 2017, 12:48:57 PM Among those who are undecided or support the third party candidate, 22% approve and 60% disapprove of Trump.
Does not look good for Gillespie. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Suburbia on July 24, 2017, 01:04:21 PM Moderate suburbanites and black voters will decide the Va. gubernatorial election.
However, it is July 2017, and people will start to pay attention by mid-October 2017. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Gass3268 on July 24, 2017, 01:07:45 PM Among those who are undecided or support the third party candidate, 22% approve and 60% disapprove of Trump. Does not look good for Gillespie. Exactly, every negative add should have Trump in it and run them like crazy in NoVA. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: heatcharger on July 24, 2017, 01:17:08 PM It's time to start tying him to Trump. 59% of people say Trump is not a factor in how they'll vote for governor, plus 14% saying a minor factor. This is not as good a strategy as it may seem despite Trump having a 57% disapproval rating. I think the problem is Northam is still too anonymous with 46% having no opinion, but it is only July, and people don't start paying attention until September-October. I also don't want to unskew, but this poll has a 47-36 Republican primary voting history advantage. That doesn't seem right considering the way the primary went this year. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Virginiá on July 24, 2017, 01:30:54 PM I think the problem is Northam is still too anonymous with 46% having no opinion, but it is only July, and people don't start paying attention until September-October. I also don't want to unskew, but this poll has a 47-36 Republican primary voting history advantage. That doesn't seem right considering the way the primary went this year. Good points! 59% of people say Trump is not a factor in how they'll vote for governor, plus 14% saying a minor factor. This is not as good a strategy as it may seem despite Trump having a 57% disapproval rating. Tying Gillespie to Trump in NOVA only might be worthwhile. Even if people say it isn't a factor, it still might be subconsciously. I seriously doubt for many people their candidate choice is actually isolated from their feelings on Trump, although given just how low Trump's approvals are in Virginia, it might be the case that a negative Trump effect will already be built into the race in terms of enthusiasm and other factors whether or not Northam chooses to carry out an anti-Trump campaign. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Sir Mohamed on July 24, 2017, 01:38:51 PM Tied? For sure. Next.
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: heatcharger on July 24, 2017, 02:28:44 PM Tying Gillespie to Trump in NOVA only might be worthwhile. Even if people say it isn't a factor, it still might be subconsciously. I seriously doubt for many people their candidate choice is actually isolated from their feelings on Trump, although given just how low Trump's approvals are in Virginia, it might be the case that a negative Trump effect will already be built into the race in terms of enthusiasm and other factors whether or not Northam chooses to carry out an anti-Trump campaign. I don't necessarily disagree, but I think people, especially in NOVA, dislike Trump because of his fundamentally rotten character and corrupt dealings, not necessarily his policies that he's advocated (although those are also extremely bad and unpopular). I think this may drive turnout among angry Democrats who may have skipped off-year elections in the past, but it's harder to convince nonpartisans that Trump is a good enough reason to vote against Gillespie. Another problem is Virginia never got the Medicaid expansion, so Northam can't even rail against the healthcare bill as a statewide issue as effectively as it would in New Jersey, for example. I think Northam needs to just run the standard VA Dem playbook of going heavy on jobs, schools, and transportation. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: UncleSam on July 24, 2017, 02:39:56 PM Gillespie seems to have a bizarre appeal to moderates in Virginia I don't really understand but it is time for Democrats to start taking him seriously unless they want to throw a race they should be winning 100% of the time. Northam needs to improve his anonymous numbers and needs to get out a positive message with every ad he releases. I've not heard anything about Northams' agenda outside of 'I'm a generic moderate Democrat' which is kind of like the anti-Gillespie tbh.
Anyway the lack of any sort of acknowledgement from the red avatars in this thread is stunning, it's like people are in complete denial YET AGAIN Republicans have a Trump problem but the Democratic Party isn't much more popular (if any), though it may be in Virginia. Democrats have time to define a message but they've not really done so yet. This is still Lean D but it is moving towards tilt category if Dems continue to sleep on it. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Virginiá on July 24, 2017, 03:14:11 PM ^ Democrats aren't really sleeping on anything. There is a still a rather blatant enthusiasm gap between the two parties right now, which is compounded by the partisan leanings of VA. Further, Northam had to expend a lot of resources to put down Perriello, so it's not surprising that he doesn't have enough gas in the tank right now to substantially increase his exposure. If this is still the case come mid-late September, then yeah, might be a problem, but otherwise, Gillespie is still the one with a hill to climb.
I don't necessarily disagree, but I think people, especially in NOVA, dislike Trump because of his fundamentally rotten character and corrupt dealings, not necessarily his policies that he's advocated (although those are also extremely bad and unpopular). Oh, that is another good point. That reminds me of something by Gallup (iirc) that showed that Trump's negatives are driven in large part by differences of character, whereas Bush and Obama was mainly based on policy. I hadn't considered the potential implications of that in elections happening under Trump's tenure. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: PragmaticPopulist on July 24, 2017, 04:16:40 PM I go to Fairfax County every week, and Trump is toxic there. Gillespie however, appears to have more appeal. Still, the pessimistic way he describes Virginia's economy seems to be directed soley at Trump voters, and this message won't resonate, if not repel, voters in the urban crescent.
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Anzeigenhauptmeister on July 24, 2017, 04:39:07 PM Is there a poll for Lieutenant Governor?
A tie for Northam probably implicates a loss for Fairfax. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on July 24, 2017, 07:27:15 PM Go Gillespie!
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: _ on July 24, 2017, 08:00:04 PM I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work. I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.
From the poll 10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor? 26% Major factor 14% Minor factor 59% Not a factor 1% (VOL) Don't know I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on July 24, 2017, 08:14:54 PM I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work. I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there. From the poll 10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor? 26% Major factor 14% Minor factor 59% Not a factor 1% (VOL) Don't know I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good. No, it doesn't. Consider this: Quote While Trump is a presence in this election, few voters would actually alter their intention at this point if he wasn't a consideration. Nearly all Gillespie voters (99%) would stick with their choice if Trump was not a factor in their vote. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with many of the potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column. Taken together, these results suggest that Gillespie could actually have a lead of 45% to 40% over Northam - with 12% being undecided - if Trump did not currently figure into the equation. "A small but crucial portion of Northam's support is coming from voters who are primarily anti-Trump. Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: _ on July 24, 2017, 08:18:58 PM I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work. I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there. From the poll 10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor? 26% Major factor 14% Minor factor 59% Not a factor 1% (VOL) Don't know I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good. No, it doesn't. Consider this: Quote While Trump is a presence in this election, few voters would actually alter their intention at this point if he wasn't a consideration. Nearly all Gillespie voters (99%) would stick with their choice if Trump was not a factor in their vote. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with many of the potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column. Taken together, these results suggest that Gillespie could actually have a lead of 45% to 40% over Northam - with 12% being undecided - if Trump did not currently figure into the equation. "A small but crucial portion of Northam's support is coming from voters who are primarily anti-Trump. Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce. Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group? Or independents who don't really think Trump matters? Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on July 24, 2017, 08:23:05 PM I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work. I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there. From the poll 10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor? 26% Major factor 14% Minor factor 59% Not a factor 1% (VOL) Don't know I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good. No, it doesn't. Consider this: Quote While Trump is a presence in this election, few voters would actually alter their intention at this point if he wasn't a consideration. Nearly all Gillespie voters (99%) would stick with their choice if Trump was not a factor in their vote. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with many of the potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column. Taken together, these results suggest that Gillespie could actually have a lead of 45% to 40% over Northam - with 12% being undecided - if Trump did not currently figure into the equation. "A small but crucial portion of Northam's support is coming from voters who are primarily anti-Trump. Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce. Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group? Or independents who don't really think Trump matters? Quote Those saying Trump is a factor include 52% of Northam supporters, 32% of Gillespie supporters, and 32% of those who are undecided or are supporting the third party candidate. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: _ on July 24, 2017, 08:26:39 PM I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work. I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there. From the poll 10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor? 26% Major factor 14% Minor factor 59% Not a factor 1% (VOL) Don't know I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good. No, it doesn't. Consider this: Quote While Trump is a presence in this election, few voters would actually alter their intention at this point if he wasn't a consideration. Nearly all Gillespie voters (99%) would stick with their choice if Trump was not a factor in their vote. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with many of the potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column. Taken together, these results suggest that Gillespie could actually have a lead of 45% to 40% over Northam - with 12% being undecided - if Trump did not currently figure into the equation. "A small but crucial portion of Northam's support is coming from voters who are primarily anti-Trump. Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce. Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group? Or independents who don't really think Trump matters? Quote Those saying Trump is a factor include 52% of Northam supporters, 32% of Gillespie supporters, and 32% of those who are undecided or are supporting the third party candidate. So that'd be 68% of undecideds saying Trump isn't, alright. Gillespie's group is probably almost all former Stewart supporters. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on July 24, 2017, 08:48:58 PM I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work. I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there. From the poll 10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor? 26% Major factor 14% Minor factor 59% Not a factor 1% (VOL) Don't know I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good. No, it doesn't. Consider this: Quote While Trump is a presence in this election, few voters would actually alter their intention at this point if he wasn't a consideration. Nearly all Gillespie voters (99%) would stick with their choice if Trump was not a factor in their vote. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with many of the potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column. Taken together, these results suggest that Gillespie could actually have a lead of 45% to 40% over Northam - with 12% being undecided - if Trump did not currently figure into the equation. "A small but crucial portion of Northam's support is coming from voters who are primarily anti-Trump. Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce. Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group? Or independents who don't really think Trump matters? Quote Those saying Trump is a factor include 52% of Northam supporters, 32% of Gillespie supporters, and 32% of those who are undecided or are supporting the third party candidate. So that'd be 68% of undecideds saying Trump isn't, alright. Gillespie's group is probably almost all former Stewart supporters. If Dems were remotely competent, Trump's approval rating in the state/district should be a ceiling on the GOP share of the vote in any election held for the next 4 years unless the Dem candidate has a yuge scandal. That's how it worked in the Obama years. Er, not really. Obama's approval in Louisiana in 2014 was around 35%, but Mary Landrieu received 44% of the vote. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: henster on July 24, 2017, 09:24:33 PM Trump is going to be a bigger factor in federal races than local races. Northam should run on health care, education, jobs and his profile (veteran/doctor). In fact the whole campaign should be more positive, I am not a fan of the scorched earth ad strategy we saw from McAuliffe & Clinton, Mook ran both of those campaigns btw.
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on July 24, 2017, 11:29:54 PM Jesus Christ.... Democrats... It should not be this close.
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: The Other Castro on July 25, 2017, 10:54:32 AM Jesus Christ.... Democrats... It should not be this close. Recent polls on RCP include Tie, Northam +8, and Northam +11. If the race actually stands at something like Northam +5, then yes, it should be this close in some polls (as well as not so close in other polls). That's how polling works. Title: VA: Monmouth University: Race Tied for Virginia Governor Post by: ElectionAtlas on July 25, 2017, 11:04:54 AM New Poll: Virginia Governor by Monmouth University on 2017-07-23 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2017/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120170723102)
Summary: D: 44%, R: 44%, U: 9% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_VA_072417/) Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: heatcharger on July 25, 2017, 11:08:14 AM Dave, could you approve my account for entering polls into the database?
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Skye on July 25, 2017, 01:52:57 PM I still have this as Lean D. Gillespie is a good candidate, though.
I wonder what'll happen if Trump's approval rating goes up to a more decent number. But don't act as if this race is a lost cause for the GOP. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: BuckeyeNut on July 25, 2017, 02:20:28 PM Like Sanders, Perriello was shown to beat the GE opponent at a healthier margin, and Northam could well botch it.
Title: Re: VA: Monmouth University: Race Tied for Virginia Governor Post by: Virginiá on July 25, 2017, 03:22:01 PM New Poll: Virginia Governor by Monmouth University on 2017-07-23 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2017/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120170723102) Summary: D: 44%, R: 44%, U: 9% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_VA_072417/) Hey Dave, just in the off chance you pop back in this thread, did you get a chance to read my PM/email about a serious forum bug / something I made for the forum? I made a thread about it in the Cave as well. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: _ on July 25, 2017, 05:04:44 PM I still can't believe that 68% of the undecideds, who have their Trump favorables at 22-60 iirc, think he doesn't matter.
If ANYONE here works on the Northam campaign, they have to stop talking about Trump so much, they need to get a positive economic message, attack Gillespie's establishment ties, and, this is very important, SLAM HEALTHCARE HOME IN THE COAL COUNTIES, that's exactly where you have the highest possible gain from healthcare with so many of them getting govt. help. If Northam focuses too much on Trump it will backfire, 100%. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Mr. Reactionary on July 25, 2017, 06:21:33 PM Trump is going to be a bigger factor in federal races than local races. Northam should run on health care, education, jobs and his profile (veteran/doctor). In fact the whole campaign should be more positive, I am not a fan of the scorched earth ad strategy we saw from McAuliffe & Clinton, Mook ran both of those campaigns btw. I agree with this. Hopefully his past residency in tidewater helps with turnout there, but he still needs to visit Virginia Beach a ton during the campaign. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on July 25, 2017, 07:42:47 PM Like Sanders, Perriello was shown to beat the GE opponent at a healthier margin, and Northam could well botch it. Basically this. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: henster on July 25, 2017, 07:58:38 PM I fear relentless ads from Northam tying Gillespie to Trump in any way possible and Gillespie basically running on local issues. I think most people realize Gillespie is a Republican and in extension supports Trump no need to double down on it.
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Suburbia on July 26, 2017, 01:22:37 PM Democrats like Northam, Murphy, and De Blasio should not run only on Trump. That is what Hillary Clinton did in 2016 against Trump. She was "Love not Hate". She did not have an economic and military message to win.
If Northam and the Virginia Democrats want to win in 2017, they need to have a message, and not just on anti-Trump only to motivate Democratic voters in NOVA and in other Virginia suburban areas. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Kevin on July 26, 2017, 02:05:19 PM Democrats like Northam, Murphy, and De Blasio should not run only on Trump. That is what Hillary Clinton did in 2016 against Trump. She was "Love not Hate". She did not have an economic and military message to win. If Northam and the Virginia Democrats want to win in 2017, they need to have a message, and not just on anti-Trump only to motivate Democratic voters in NOVA and in other Virginia suburban areas. Agreed-although Murphy and (prob De Blasio) could prob shoot someone and still win no matter what. The problem for Northam running on solely an anti-Trump message is math imo. Sure Trump maybe unpopular in NOVA and VA was one of only a few swing states he didn't care etc. The issue with running on such a message against Gillespie is that it could backfire and aggravate Trump's base downstate to really come out on election day. Along with the other fact that Gillispie is likely to do several points better at least in NOVA compared to Trump who totally collapsed in Fairfax, PWC, and Loudoun. As someone pointed out here earlier Gillespie's standing in NOVA seems to be an odd bright spot for him. Also keep in mind during his 2014 run for Senate, Gillespie carried Loudoun and came close in Prince William and preformed slightly better in Fairfax. If he had gotten only 10,000 or so additional voters in rural VA or in Southside, Richmond area, or VA beach he would be Sen. Ed Gillespie(R-VA) right now Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: dead heat Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on August 01, 2017, 10:28:03 PM VA is a must win state for Dems to hold onto for 2020
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