Talk Elections

The following our a collection of battleground states and other states that have usually been close within the last few Presidential elections or some might at least consider swing states.

Voted all but NM, IA, VA, & OH.  GA & CO are a bit iffy, but the rest are swing states.

I'm sure plenty will disagree with me about AZ.  People underestimate Arizona's status, but as close as it was in an election where Trump carried the electoral college, it's a swing state.  Arizona has many of the same demographic trends causing much of the Southwest to trend Democratic.  Also, the fact that it didn't swing much in 2008 or 2012 doesn't mean the state is "fool's gold".  People seem to forget McCain's home sate advantage and the fact that Romney was a great fit for Arizona.

Only PA, WI, MI, NH, MN, NV, and ME.

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FL, MN, WI, MI, PA, ME

FL, NV, OH, NC

I really don't get the argument that Iowa isn't a swing state and is somehow lost for the Democrats forever just because Hillary did really poorly there. Obama won by over 10% in 2008 and still over 5% in 2012. I think that alone justifies IA staying as a swing state. Yes, it swung hard right in 2016 but Hillary was a particularly bad fit for the state and this was the type of place where Trump thrived. In fact, I would argue that Ohio is closer to gone for the Democrats than Iowa, as Obama won by <5% in 2008 and barely eeked out a win in 2012.

Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and no, Iowa and Ohio aren't gone for the Democrats yet. If the GOP wins them in both 2020 and 2024, then we can talk about them being gone.

Virginia, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are in the lean Blue category as far as I'm concerned. Virginia and Colorado were red (atlas blue) pre 2008 and then were won by Obama twice and Clinton once, Nevada, a swing state prior to 2008 was the same way.

Pennsylvania, and Michigan voted Democratic from 1992-2012 and swung to Trump by thin margins, Wisconsin was the same way from 1988-2012, so I'm not going to write those off for the Democrats yet. New Hampshire went GOP once since 1992, in 2000, and that was in part thanks to Nader.  New Mexico only went GOP once since 1992 as well, narrowly in 2004, thanks to the War on Terror. To be honest, Wisconsin in the only one of those three states I see becoming a red (atlas blue) state as it has been Republican at the state level more often than not over the last two to three decades and has gone solidly in that direction since 2010.

Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are lean republican. Arizona was only won once by the Democrats since 1952 and that was in 1996 and that was in large part thanks to Perot. Georgia did once since 1984, and that was in 1992,  again thanks to Perot.  North Carolina only went Democratic once since 1980, narrowly in 2008, and that was thanks to the financial crisis. Factor that out, McCain might've held on to it. Romney won it back in 2012 and Trump won it in 2016. I will say that Demographic changes can make them swing states, maybe eventually blue states, but those changes aren't happening fast enough to safely put them in the swing column.

AZ, FL, PA, MI, WI, ME.

All of the above plus Indiana.

The Big Three, FL, NC, NC, ME, NV, and AZ.

I'd say WI as well.

Ok I understand where you're coming from.

But by no means should a Democrat abandon it (I know that's not what you're saying. Just wanted to state that). I would still include it on the list based on how it was one of the states that elected within less than 1% of the state's vote.  Also, Romney and Cruz-primary voters might still not turn out for the eventual nominee (most likely Trump or Pence) based on how the last four years will have been.

Arizona - not a swing state
Colorado - swing state
Florida - swing state
Georgia - not a swing state
Iowa - not a swing state
Michigan - swing state
Minnesota - swing state
Maine - swing state
Nevada - swing state
New Hampshire - swing state
New Mexico - not a swing state
North Carolina - pseudo swing state
Ohio - not a swing state
Pennsylvania - swing state
Virginia - not a swing state
Wisconsin - swing state but not for long

Arizona - Probably still more likely then not to vote Republican but the 2016 Margin shows that it definitely aint as Republican as it used to be.

Colorado - Colorado could vote for a Republican under the proper circumstances however it is becoming harder and harder for republicans to win in close elections the path there heading. Considering Clinton was not the best fit for the state and still won by almost 5% when most other swing states fell for Trump is a worrying sign for Republicans. If the trends continue it will be going down the way that Virginia is going down. A pseudo swing state which is close in polls but in the end votes 2-6% more democratic then the nation as a whole which would make it a slight to lean democratic state

Florida - Yep still a swing state

Georgia - Like Arizona. A Slight R. State which is not as solid as it use to be and with growing minority and college educated populations in the urban areas and suburbs in a Republican Party dominated by Trump wont bold well for Republicans there.

Iowa - After 2016 and Trumps almost 10% victory there, i would say that it definitely is proving more friendly for the republicans then before. If 2020 is close at all then i would say that Iowa would be Lean Trump in that case or Lean Republican depending on the Republican Nominee. However 1
election doesnt make a trend and we have to look at future presidential and congressional elections
here to see if Trumps Trend in Iowa for Republicans in Permanent. 2020 will probably narrow down trumps margin in Iowa do too some disaffected 2016 trump voters returning to voting traditionally democratic if the Democrats nominate a Sane Candidate. I wouldn't exactly call it a Swing state right now but i wouldn't call it lean Trump

Michigan - A Trumpist Republican Party is definitely making Michigan a swing state and with Trumps win in 2016 here i think it has become one. This is Trumps narrowest victory out of any state he has won and it wouldnt take a lot for the state to flip in 2020. In fact i expect it to flip in 2020 abet narrowly due to some disaffected 2016 Trump voters voting democratic again do to the Democratic nominee not being a clinton (If she is the 2020 nominee then i wouldn't say that would happen).

Minnesota - With Clintons less then 2% win here i say it has become a Swing state at best, slight democratic at worse. Minnesota has voted Democratic since 1972 and proved to continue that trend in 2016 being the only one out of Michigan and Wisconsin to vote for Clinton. However trump definitely showed signs and trends here coming closer then Bush did either time in 2000 and 2004. It is trending republican yes but if 2020 is anything like it is shaping up to be it will probably vote democratic again in 2020 but after that is unknown but its democratic voting trend is coming to a end.

Maine - The closeness of Maine in 2016 was a suprise to me. I thought it would be decided 5-10% Clinton victory nevertheless a 2.9% one. Trumps gains among Rural voters and Old Industrial areas really showed here with him winning the Second Congressional District by 10% and winning 9 countys compared to 1 for Romney in 2016.  With Trump it has become a Swing state and probably will remain that way in 2020 and beyond. Congressional district wise: The second District is Lean Trump as he won by 10% here and a close 2020 would still result in trump winning here. The 1st district is lean Democratic and although has trended Democratic since the bush years looks like it is trending republican now.

Nevada - Swing State as of now but like Colorado it is showing trouble that a swing state like Nevada didn't vote for Trump while most others did. A minority problem for the GOP is especially prevalent hear out of all places. A republican could win her in 2020 but as Washoe and Clark continue trend away from Republicans it is becoming harder.

New Hampshire - Hell yes. A 0.3% and or 3000 vote Margin can easily be overcome. This is another state i was surprised by considering the closeness. It has become more democratic leaning since the Bush Years but a small win her in 2020 wouldn't be a surprise.

New Mexico - Its not 2004 anymore. It only was within 10% this year was due to Gary Johnson. If he wasn't there, Clinton would win her around where Obama 2012 got or perhaps more or less. The Hispanic population at 48% has made the state a goner for the Republicans.

North Carolina - More of a Swing state then Georgia or Arizona but still not fully there. It has become a case her where the Polls show a close race and perhaps a democratic lead but in the end the republican wins anywhere from 0.5-4%. It will however become more of one as time goes on.

Ohio - Still a Swing State though not as swingy as it used to be. Trumps 8% win here can be overcome but that would require a shift in the democratic party operation and Candidate. A 2020 Democrat will most likely see some slight trend in there favor unless the candidate is horrible in many ways but they will need to campaign there to try to win back the Sandusky or Youngstown factory workers which caused Trump to win here. Aka become Economically Populist and you can put Ohio and maybe Iowa back into Play in 2020. But if the Republican Party continues to become more "Trumpist" Democrats long term hope her is diminishing.

Pennsylannia - A state in which there was a very narrow Trump win in 2016 which can easily be turned around however it does prove Pennsylvania is a real swing state and not fools gold. (See Ohio basically)

Virginia - Nova is killing Republican chances her and Trump isnt making that any better. As with Colorado and Georgia, Growing Minority and College educated populations in the urban area and suburban areas in Nova and Southeast Virginia is making Republicans hope here more and more unlikely. It can still be won by a right republican (Say a Kasich like Republican) but if Republicans continue to do as poor as they are doing right now in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince Williams county and dont make it up somewhere else they are done here for now.

Wisconsin - Yes.(See all Rust belt states to know Answer)

How the hell is Maine a swing state ?!? It hasn't
gone Red since the Reagan/Bush 41 age?

ME-02 is a toss up district but the state overall is Likely D.

Say what? It's gone for the winner in EVERY
single election since LBJ. And before that only
one other election since 1900 (44) did Ohio
not pick the winner.

Think about that - only FDR in 44 and
John F Kennedy in '60 LOST Ohio and
WON the Presidency. That's INSANE

I'd say Ohio is the ultimate swing state and until
a loser wins the state, it's pretty swingy

Did you miss the 2016 Election or Something? Clinton only carried Maine by 2.9%. That is not safe at all. States don't have to be won by both party's to be considered a Swing State. A swing State is a state which can be reasonably won by either the Democratic or Republican Presidential candidate. A Republican can very reasonably overcome a 2.9%. It may of been a lean Democratic state during the Obama Years but 2016 showed there is a Republican trend in Maine.

Trends dont last. Trump won the state by 8% and a continued Republican trend in the Midwest will most likely end Ohio's reign as the decider of elections in favor of another state.

States that usually belong to one party can trend to another if the environment is right.

Hell, Bill Clinton won a lot of heavily Republican states (for example)

2016 was unique - You had a Dem candidate who was very unlikable and was very establishment running after 8 years of a Democratic administration and you had a GOP candidate who was anti establishment and appealed (for what reason I don't know but still) to rural lower-middle class whites. That was a unique setup that is unlikely to be duplicated. I doubt Maine is within 5 points next time - Remember a big portion of Maines population comes from the Portland area which is heavily blue in the same sphere of influence as Southern NH

Haha that 17 people voted Ohio, which went Trump by 8, but only 7 voted Virginia, which only went Clinton by 5. Don't be surprised if Gillespie narrowly wins in November.

Of course states do. Thats what Maine is doing right now, its trending republican. We dont know if its long term because it has only been 1 election so far (2016) but if a 2.9% democratic victory in 2016 can tell us anything; right now Maine will most likely be a swing state in 2020 and the future of the state depends on the politics after. Like Minnesota for example, It is trending republican and we dont know if its permanent but we do know that right now it is considered a swing state at the moment unless 2020 is a 2008 type election. Also who says that this is a one time occurrence and maybe a indicator of something long term
How do you know its unique? How do you know its not a long term trend?

Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin are the correct answers.

Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia aren't swing states any more.

Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico haven't been swing states for a long time.

Your statement would make more sense if you had said "Don't be surprised when the Democrats will lose Ohio in both 2018 and 2020".

FL, OH, WI, MI, IA, NC, NH, PA, NV, and CO

VA is a pseudo-swing state at this point.

Why do people still consider North Carolina a Swing State? It voted Democrat one time in like 40 years or something. And that was only during perfect circumstances. Since then it has voted Republican in every single election (2012 and 2016). Even during an election when the Democrat Candidate won. And if you look at both election results and Party Identification it's only getting more and more Republican. This is despite the fact that both the Obama and Hillary Campaign (Especially Her Campaign) spent an enourmous amount of Resources trying to turn it Democrat.

Because it has remained close - mostly within the same margin vs national pv win. As others stated in another thread, proportionate to the PV margin, NC actually trended a tiny bit Democratic in 2016, but not to any degree truly worth mentioning. In fact, North Carolina has largely stalled out, and isn't really becoming more and more [any party]. The registration gains you speak of are not isolated to NC either - they are leftover party labels from voters who have long stopped voting for Democrats at the presidential level, if not all levels, but have yet to shed their party labels. Florida, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and other states have similar things going on. It's largely meaningless. If you want to read more on this, here is a link (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/31/upshot/democrats-edge-in-voter-registration-is-declining-but-looks-can-be-deceiving.html).

As it stands now, barring a candidate that is unusually more appealing to North Carolina voters, NC is just a leans R state that can flip to the Democrat if they have a win at least larger than 2012. But at the same time, it doesn't change that most of the long-term state level trends do not seem that favorable to Republicans.

Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

I'm not saying Ohio isn't a swing state, I'm saying Virginia is one. Although Brown is an underdog, he could certainly still win.

All except New Mexico.

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WI, MI, Pa and VA 279 blue wall Cory Booker can hold onto

If we take 'swing state' in its most literal sense, and we're just talking about states that have a reasonable possibility of voting either R or D, then I'd argue all of those are swing states with the exception of VA (which I think is slipping away too quickly from the GOP), maybe GA (which looks good long-term for the Dems, but I don't think is there yet), and NM (just not a swing state).  OH, CO, and IA are states that seem to be falling out of the "swing state" category as well, but I'm not sure we're quite there yet.

Now, on the other hand, if we narrow the definition a bit and what you're really asking about are toss-ups, i.e. states that we expect both parties to have a roughly equal probability of winning and will be too close to call... well, it's way too early to know what those states will be with any sort of precision, but my premature guess would be FL, PA, WI, with a possibility of NC.  Less possible, but worth considering, are NH, and maybe MI (I think the jury's still out on whether that was a flash in the pan).

Finally, if what we're asking is what states do we think will actually be contested heavily by the parties.. that's yet another category that's larger than the toss-ups, but will not include all the swing states.  For example, Maine won't be, just because there's not enough EVs.  Iowa might also fall into this category-- although it tied for 7th in 2016 in campaign visits (along with NH), I wonder if that will continue going forward.  It's certainly possible we see a state like AZ unseat it, and I would be surprised if WI doesn't as well.  FL was #1 in campaign visits in 2016 and I expect it'll probably be #1 again in 2020.  Maybe PA will be #2 (it was #3 last time, behind NC).

AZ, NC, NE-2, FL, WI, MI, PA, NH & NV. Conflicted over MN.

If we're talking battleground, then all except NM.

If we're defining swing state somewhat loosely, I'll say all of them except New Mexico, though the jury's still out on Colorado, Iowa, and Maine.