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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Pragmatic Conservative on July 28, 2017, 03:35:39 PM



Title: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on July 28, 2017, 03:35:39 PM
With Former Premier Christy Clark's announcement that she will resign as BC Liberal leader effective August 4th, the process for picking a new leader is just beginning. The party will have 30 days to set a date and rules for the leadership contest. I would presume with the incredibly volatile legislature the party will try and set a date for next spring. When Gordan Campbell resigned in November of 2010 the leadership convention took place in February 2011. Former Deputy Premier Rich Coleman will take over on an interim basis which presumably means he will not run for permanent leader.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/christy-clark-resigns-as-leader-of-b-c-liberal-party (http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/christy-clark-resigns-as-leader-of-b-c-liberal-party)

With such a diverse coalition (Some Federal liberals and Conservatives) plus no apparent front runner their is likely to be a long list of names enter this race. I will go through them all in more detail but here are some of them below that may be contenders.

Current MLA's (Past Cabinet)
Mike de Jong- Former Finance Minister, MLA Abbotsford West (ran in 2011 finished 4th)
Mike Bernier- Former Education Minister, MLA Peace River South
Shirley Bond- Former Minister of Jobs, Tourism and Skills Training (and a number of other departments),  MLA for Prince George-Valemount
Mary Polak- Former Heath and Environment Minster, MLA for Langley

Outside Caucus non MLA's
Kevin Falcon- Former Minister of Finance/Deputy Premier and MLA for Surrey-Cloverdale (ran in 2011 finished runner up)
Dianna Watts- Former Mayor of Surrey and Conservative MP for  South Surrey—White Rock.
Joyce Murray-Parliamentary Secretary to the President of the Treasury Board and Liberal MP for Vancouver Quadra and Former BC Liberal New Westminster MLA.


The last two probably won't run but would be top contenders if they did.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on July 28, 2017, 03:45:45 PM
My take


The first name being mentioned is Dianne Watts, the former Surrey mayor and presently Conservative M.P for Surrey-White Rock.

Watts was a very popular mayor but her popularity dropped somewhat from her leaving as mayor to running for M.P due to a wave of gang shootings and other crime problems in Surrey that caused a re-evaluation of her tenure as mayor, and she won her election to Parliament by a narrow margin (I think 1,600 votes.)

If she doesn't run, I think most of the attention would turn first to those top candidates who ran against Christy Clark in 2011: Kevin Falcon and George Abbott. (Mike De Jong and, I think, a couple others also ran)  Abbott has said he's done with politics and is no longer a member of the B.C Liberals (I believe I read he was also once a New Democrat) but Kevin Falcon came forward to criticize Clark for her stolen throne speech stunt.

Other than them, I would look at Mike Bernier the former Education Minister who is regarded as somebody who can bring people together.  I think his firing of the Vancouver School Board would also large help him in his run for leader.  He can portray himself as a consensus builder who also has a spine.

I would think John Rustad who received very positive grades for his handling of the B.C forest fires as the person who was named the Forests and Natural Resource Operations minister for the brief time after the Liberal election loss would also be a strong candidate.

An outsider I'd like to see but has given no indication is James Moore, the former Conservative M.P and Industry Minister who was regarded as a 'Red Tory.'

From the 'who asked you to run?' list, those who are considered to want to run but not likely to garner a lot of support are the extremely book smart but hopelessly tin eared Andrew Wilkinson and the former mayor of Vancouver Sam Sullivan.  I think there may have been one or two other Liberal M.L.As who have been mentioned as wanting to run but not likely to garner a lot of support (unless, of course, nobody who would be the frontrunners decides to run.)


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 28, 2017, 07:11:34 PM
Moore left politics for family reasons. IIRC, his son has some pretty severe health problems, so I doubt he's getting back into politics.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 28, 2017, 07:12:25 PM
Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on July 28, 2017, 07:14:02 PM
Moore left politics for family reasons. IIRC, his son has some pretty severe health problems, so I doubt he's getting back into politics.

Yes, apparently he's already said he's not interested, but he was mentioned by others and asked, which I wasn't even aware of at the time I wrote that.

The problem with your comment, which I agree is the reason he left politics and isn't coming back anytime soon, is that at the same time he stepped down from office he said something like "I plan to be back soon."


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on July 28, 2017, 07:21:29 PM
Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?

How often does that happen?  It happened in the Conservative leadership race, but where else?  Jagmeet Singh appears to be making genuine inroads in the NDP leadership race and Charlie Angus appears to be his leading rival.

That sort of happened in B.C in 1986 with both Grace McCarthy and Bud Smith in the Social Credit leadership race, but they were two of the four main candidates.

My new M.L.A, Jas Johal is getting some attention and could be hyped by the media because he was a former journalist himself, but on CKNW at least one political science professor has already said "he'd probably be better positioned in a few years."

If there is one, it might be Dianne Watts given that a number in the media are calling her the front-runner (if she runs) and given her declining popularity in Surrey a couple years ago, she may not be as strong as they think.

I think Dianne Watts would have won handily had she run for the B.C Liberal leadership in 2011 but maybe she's missed her chance (if she was ever interested in the first place.)


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: adma on July 28, 2017, 10:34:18 PM
Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?

How often does that happen? 

When Christy Clark ran?  (Yeah, she won; but with negligible caucus support.)

As for Watts: for all her localized issues, I think her close call had more to do with the pratfallish federal campaign at large than her own deficiencies.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Lotuslander on July 29, 2017, 02:52:18 AM
Clark's resignation today certainly surprised everyone including her BC Lib caucus. Based upon a telephone interview tonight with Global BC's Keith Baldrey, Clark confided that if the GreeNDP gov't indeed lasted a couple of years that the proverbial knives would likely begin to come out from caucus. Ergo, Clark wanted to leave on her own terms after reflection. Certainly Clark, had she won the 2017 election, would have resigned and left office before the 2021 election. In reality, preems have a shelf life of 10 years at the max.

Suspect that numerous candidates will emerge, down the road, for Clark's replacement. Clark's resignation will undoubtedly change BC's political dynamic.
But, should she decide to take the jump, former Surrey mayor and current fed Con MP Dianne Watts would likely be considered the front-runner and further change BC's political dynamic.

So who is Dianne Watts and what is her electoral time-line to date?

Watts was first elected to Surrey council back in 1996. Watts later had a falling out with right-wing mayor Doug McCallum and ran as an independent mayoral candidate in the 2005 muni election. One must remember that both Watts and Doug McCallum were part of the Surrey municipal party SME at the time, before she broke ranks. Surprisingly Watts won in 2005 but faced animosity from the SME party dominated Surrey municipal council shortly thereafter. Nevertheless, Watts, also surprisingly, rekindled relationships and later brought SME Surrey councillors aboard forming a new Surrey muni party called Surrey First - which dominates Surrey municipal politics to this day.

Moreover, Watts also brought long-time centre-left councillor Judy Villeneuve (former NDP candidate) as well centre-left councillor Barinder Rasode into the Surrey First fold as well. Both had previously been associated with the Surrey NDP farm team SCE, which is now basically dead.

Watts transformed Surrey from the perception a red-neck suburban municipality into its own. Watts' legacy includes turning old north Surrey into a future vibrant downtown core - condominium and office skyscrapers are beginning to dominate the skyline.

Watts ran as mayor in 2005, 2008, and 2011 and in the latter 2 elections received 80% and 86% popular vote shares respectively. Moreover, Watts was among the finalists for the 2010 World Mayor prize and Watts was ultimately selected as "the fourth-best mayor in the world".

After the May, 2009 BC election, the BC Libs faced a debacle with the HST affair. Interestingly enough, an Angus Reid Strategies opinion poll, several months later on September 5, 2009, had this result for following question with net score results:

Quote
If Gordon Campbell were to step down, do you feel each of the following would make a good premier?

1. Dianne Watts, then Surrey Mayor +14

2. Christy Clark, then radio talk show host and former Liberal +1

3. Mike Farnworth, NDP -2

4. Mike De Jong, Lib -3

5. Gregor Robertson, Vancouver mayor -9

6. Colin Hansen, Lib -11

7. Adrian Dix, NDP -11

8. John Horgan, NDP -13

9. Carole James -13

10. Kevin Falcon, Lib -17

11. Rich Coleman, Lib -21

[link now broken]

When BC Lib preem Gordon Campbell resigned later in late 2010. Watts' name was again highly touted and bandied about in the media as a potential contender for replacement. However, many pundits suggested that Watts was not interested at the time (including myself) considering that the BC Libs were suffering internal turmoil with the HST fiasco and Watts prized her mayoral position and wanted to complete her ambitions in Surrey with another 3-year term.

On November 5, 2010, Ipsos Reid released the poll results of "potential" BC Lib contenders with public net positive/net negative scores:

1. Dianne Watts +30
2. Carole Taylor +21
...
5. Christy Clark -14

()

On or about December 10, 2010, Watts confirmed, in an exclusive interview, that she had no interest in the leadership of the BC Libs at the time. 3 interesting matters stand out from that interview though:

1. The Global BC TV journalist interviewing was Jas Johal, who was elected in the 2017 election in Richmond-Queensborough;

2. Reference therein to a then Ipsos poll that 65% of BCers wanted Watts to run for the BC Lib leadership;

3. Watts stating that she would have endorsed former BC Liberal finance minister Carole Taylor in the BC Lib leadership race. That's key because Carole Taylor was a long-time federal Liberal and her now deceased spouse was Art Phillips, former Vancouver Centre Liberal MP. Ergo, Watts has always been considered a red tory/blue liberal on the political spectrum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_jFML49WLM

Watts has always been very popular, non-devisive, intelligent and well-respected. Certainly Carole Taylor could also be categorized in that same mold. To boot, both could be considered as "Tier 1" type candidates and aside from those two, cannot see any other similar Tier 1 leadership candidates, of any political stripe, going back ~60 years.

Watts later won mayoral re-election in November, 2011 and finished her Surrey mayoral term in November, 2014. At the outset, Watts stated that she would only run 3 terms for mayor and she thus completed same.

In 2015, both the federal Liberals and federal Cons courted Watts to run under their banner for the October, 2015 election in the new riding of South Surrey-White Rock after federal redistribution. That area has always had centre-right demographics and elected PCs, Reform, Canadian Alliance, and Con MPs. Without checking, I suspect that the last time that this area was majority fed Lib territory was back in 1968 during original Trudeau-mania.

Harper came out to BC numerous times to court Watts and finally succeeded in bagging her as a candidate in SS-WR with Watts also likely expecting to be a fed Con cabinet minister in a re-elected Con gov't. However, on e-day October, 2015, the anti-Harper Con tide, pro-JT Liberal tide was so strong, Watts almost lost - she won by a 2.5% margin over her fed Liberal rival Judy Higginbothan, who was also a former Surrey councillor between 1983 and 2008 - also a centre-right "blue" Liberal. Had Watts not been the Con candidate here in 2015, undoubtedly the fed Liberals would have bagged another seat.

Since then, Watts has been a Con opposition MP, with a critic role, but essentially has a low profile with almost zero media exposure in BC. Watts will likely continue in that same role after the 2019 fed election. 5 - 6 hour flights between the west coast and Ottawa are also apparently taking a toll on Watts.

Back in April, 2017 of this year, Watts had an interview with an obscure media outlet known as "Surrey604" and some of her statements re:Ottawa stood out thereto:

Quote
“The commute is very trying because you are taking red eye flights and you get in at 2:00 AM in the morning, which because of the time change makes the hours extraordinarily long. You often don’t get home for dinner until 9:30 – 10 o’clock at night, and this on a regular basis.

There isn’t a lot of down time; so that is a challenge especially with family.

I don’t know what the future holds. Right now, I am going back and forth to Ottawa, I have been elected for a four year term and we will see what happens at that junction.”

http://surrey604.com/2017/04/23/dianne-watts-on-the-national-stage/

On her social media Twitter feed (whomever is actually paying attention to same these days) Watts has always been fed politics. But when the GreeNDP accord was finalized on May 30, 2017 Watts, out of the norm, tweeted as follows:

Quote
Dianne Watts MP‏
Verified account
@DianneLWatts  May 30

It's still a back room deal that the voters were not engaged in !

Thereafter, a weekly BC political broadcast by Shaw-TV, hosted by Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer had Province political columnist Mike Smyth on as a guest. The question of Clark's leadership came up and Mike Smyth stated that he had spoken with many in the BC Liberal Party and "the name Dianne Watts keeps coming up and I hear that she may be interested this time."

Moreover, Smyth stated - para-phrasing that "Watts is one candidate that the BC NDP fears". Was surprised at his statements at the time. I actually expected Clark to be around for at least another year.

And then today's announcement. Have now also seen, on social media, Dianne Watts name bandied about by both fed Liberal voters and fed Con voters.

And heard Province political columnist Mike Smyth on CKNW today again mentioning Dianne Watts name exclusively, which Global BC news is also carrying:

Quote
According to Smyth ...one name keeps popping up, and that is Conservative MP Dianne Watts.

“I have had a lot of interest in it though; her name does come up, and that’s one name that’ll have the NDP shaking in their boots, I think if she was to come in, because she was a very popular mayor when she was the mayor of Surrey.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/3633706/who-will-be-the-next-leader-of-the-bc-liberals/

Still very early days. But if Watts actually decides to enter the race... I would make Watts the odds-on-favourite on winning same.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 29, 2017, 04:20:24 AM
Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?

How often does that happen? 

When Christy Clark ran?  (Yeah, she won; but with negligible caucus support.)

As for Watts: for all her localized issues, I think her close call had more to do with the pratfallish federal campaign at large than her own deficiencies.

Yeah, the Tory vote in her seat only declined by about 8%, which was pretty close to the national average, and way better than normal for B.C. The Tories were taking 15-25% declines in most of  Greater Vancouver. Watts close result seems more due to the Liberals consolidating the ABC vote than anything else.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on July 29, 2017, 05:28:35 AM
Here's a question for the B.Cer's. Which candidate will be the media inevitably overhype despite having poor chances with actual party members?

How often does that happen?  

When Christy Clark ran?  (Yeah, she won; but with negligible caucus support.)

As for Watts: for all her localized issues, I think her close call had more to do with the pratfallish federal campaign at large than her own deficiencies.

Yeah, the Tory vote in her seat only declined by about 8%, which was pretty close to the national average, and way better than normal for B.C. The Tories were taking 15-25% declines in most of  Greater Vancouver. Watts close result seems more due to the Liberals consolidating the ABC vote than anything else.

Maybe, but for a mayor who was last reelected with 85% of the vote and whose city council (and school board) slate dominated in the polls in 2011 and 2014 I would have expected a bigger win, something at least along the lines of what Elsie Wayne did in Saint John in 1993.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_municipal_elections,_2014#Surrey_City_Council_election

I'm certainly not claiming that she isn't still popular, but if there is additional CKNW coverage available, there was some discussion with one of the hosts of how much her popularity may not be in Surrey what it once was.  In addition to crime - and specifically the gang violence (which may have settled down since), there has also been concern with the pace of development in Surrey and one person on the program said they've heard from a number of people in Surrey who said they were former supporters of Dianne Watts that 'these things started while she was mayor.'


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on July 29, 2017, 06:19:41 AM
Apparently Vancouver Province political columnist Mike Smyth said that he thinks 'the NDP is shaking in their boots at the prospect of a Dianne Watts led B.C Liberal Party.'

I highly doubt that. I think, unlike him, the NDP is sophisticated enough to know that expected political juggernauts often don't work out.  The NDP should know that because they were the juggernaut that didn't work out in 2013.

Mike Smyth is such a simpleton that whenever I hear him I'm reminded of this brilliant take-down that he received from Bill Tieleman.

It went something like this:

Smyth "Yes, but Bill, isn't it a fact that teachers are well paid given that they work six hours a day for 10 months a year."

Tieleman: "Come on Mike,you know that isn't true.  Every teacher I know puts in several hours after class and they work throughout August preparing for the school year ahead.

Smyth: "They're paid for their job of working in the classroom."

Tieleman: "So, Mike, it takes you what, about half an hour a day to write up your column?"

Smyth: "It takes me a great deal of time to get the information to write up the column."

Tieleman: "Yes, Mike, but you're paid for the job of writing up your column and that takes you, I'd guess, a half an hour a day. So, I guess you should earn about $25 a day."

Smyth: "Thanks for being on the show Bill."

What was even more amusing than is possible to know from reading this is that when Tieleman asked Smyth how long it took him to write up his column each day, Smyth was completely oblivious at what Tieleman was driving at.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: adma on July 29, 2017, 05:37:35 PM
Maybe, but for a mayor who was last reelected with 85% of the vote and whose city council (and school board) slate dominated in the polls in 2011 and 2014 I would have expected a bigger win, something at least along the lines of what Elsie Wayne did in Saint John in 1993.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_municipal_elections,_2014#Surrey_City_Council_election



 Though keep in mind (and this fact's seldom if ever cited), Elsie was boosted by a Liberal split (the 1988 fed Grit candidate ran and did quite well as an independent in 1993).  Also, the PC brand was still relatively strong in and of itself in the Maritimes, and there was a bit of a "Celtic fringe" isolation factor akin to that which sustained the Liberal brand in the UK's extremities through the post-WWII years.  By comparison, whatever her municipal popularity, I doubt that a Dianne Watts running for the PCs in Surrey in 1993 would have succeeded; at best, she might have managed a quarter of the vote a la Kim Campbell.

Quote
I'm certainly not claiming that she isn't still popular, but if there is additional CKNW coverage available, there was some discussion with one of the hosts of how much her popularity may not be in Surrey what it once was.  In addition to crime - and specifically the gang violence (which may have settled down since), there has also been concern with the pace of development in Surrey and one person on the program said they've heard from a number of people in Surrey who said they were former supporters of Dianne Watts that 'these things started while she was mayor.'

However, remember that Surrey's a big place encompassing several federal and provincial ridings--and the south part which Watts represents also happens to be the whitest and most "removed" from the heart of the gang-violence et al problem; it's really more of a "Greater White Rock" constituency with a touch of Fraser Valley Bible Belt-ism around the edges. Thus if her support remains cushioned anywhere, it's here.

And that she still came close to losing isn't just due to Justinmania; the Grits have always had above-average "moderate retiree" strength in White Rock.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on July 29, 2017, 06:56:28 PM
Maybe, but for a mayor who was last reelected with 85% of the vote and whose city council (and school board) slate dominated in the polls in 2011 and 2014 I would have expected a bigger win, something at least along the lines of what Elsie Wayne did in Saint John in 1993.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_municipal_elections,_2014#Surrey_City_Council_election



 Though keep in mind (and this fact's seldom if ever cited), Elsie was boosted by a Liberal split (the 1988 fed Grit candidate ran and did quite well as an independent in 1993).  Also, the PC brand was still relatively strong in and of itself in the Maritimes, and there was a bit of a "Celtic fringe" isolation factor akin to that which sustained the Liberal brand in the UK's extremities through the post-WWII years.  By comparison, whatever her municipal popularity, I doubt that a Dianne Watts running for the PCs in Surrey in 1993 would have succeeded; at best, she might have managed a quarter of the vote a la Kim Campbell.

Quote
I'm certainly not claiming that she isn't still popular, but if there is additional CKNW coverage available, there was some discussion with one of the hosts of how much her popularity may not be in Surrey what it once was.  In addition to crime - and specifically the gang violence (which may have settled down since), there has also been concern with the pace of development in Surrey and one person on the program said they've heard from a number of people in Surrey who said they were former supporters of Dianne Watts that 'these things started while she was mayor.'

However, remember that Surrey's a big place encompassing several federal and provincial ridings--and the south part which Watts represents also happens to be the whitest and most "removed" from the heart of the gang-violence et al problem; it's really more of a "Greater White Rock" constituency with a touch of Fraser Valley Bible Belt-ism around the edges. Thus if her support remains cushioned anywhere, it's here.

And that she still came close to losing isn't just due to Justinmania; the Grits have always had above-average "moderate retiree" strength in White Rock.

I was not aware of that myself with Elsie Wayne. 


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 29, 2017, 09:48:57 PM
Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on July 29, 2017, 11:44:37 PM
Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.

How do you get that?
Those results don't break down by area.  I think Surrey First won virtually every poll, though obviously some were closer than others.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 30, 2017, 05:55:04 AM
Maybe, but for a mayor who was last reelected with 85% of the vote and whose city council (and school board) slate dominated in the polls in 2011 and 2014 I would have expected a bigger win, something at least along the lines of what Elsie Wayne did in Saint John in 1993.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_municipal_elections,_2014#Surrey_City_Council_election



 Though keep in mind (and this fact's seldom if ever cited), Elsie was boosted by a Liberal split (the 1988 fed Grit candidate ran and did quite well as an independent in 1993).  Also, the PC brand was still relatively strong in and of itself in the Maritimes, and there was a bit of a "Celtic fringe" isolation factor akin to that which sustained the Liberal brand in the UK's extremities through the post-WWII years.  By comparison, whatever her municipal popularity, I doubt that a Dianne Watts running for the PCs in Surrey in 1993 would have succeeded; at best, she might have managed a quarter of the vote a la Kim Campbell.

Quote
I'm certainly not claiming that she isn't still popular, but if there is additional CKNW coverage available, there was some discussion with one of the hosts of how much her popularity may not be in Surrey what it once was.  In addition to crime - and specifically the gang violence (which may have settled down since), there has also been concern with the pace of development in Surrey and one person on the program said they've heard from a number of people in Surrey who said they were former supporters of Dianne Watts that 'these things started while she was mayor.'

However, remember that Surrey's a big place encompassing several federal and provincial ridings--and the south part which Watts represents also happens to be the whitest and most "removed" from the heart of the gang-violence et al problem; it's really more of a "Greater White Rock" constituency with a touch of Fraser Valley Bible Belt-ism around the edges. Thus if her support remains cushioned anywhere, it's here.

And that she still came close to losing isn't just due to Justinmania; the Grits have always had above-average "moderate retiree" strength in White Rock.

I was not aware of that myself with Elsie Wayne. 

It's a neat little quirk of history. The Liberal + Indy vote actually was greater than Elsie's, although only by a couple hundred votes. The Tories could have salvaged a few more seats if the Liberals had any competition to their left in Atlantic Canada. Reform benefited from this a bit out West.

For example, here are the top Tory results by vote share in 1993:
1) Jean Charest, Sherbrooke, 52.4%
2) Bernard Valcourt, Madawaska-Victoria, 45.7%
3) Elsie Wayne, Saint John, 43.3%
4) Ross Reid, St. John's East, 42.1%
5) Greg Thompson, Carleton-Charlotte, 40.6%

Pulling 40% in a few Atlantic Canadian seats (and 30% in several more) is quite impressive given the Tories total collapse, and in most elections would be enough to retain said seats. I don't think anyone would have been able to pull a comparable result for the Tories in suburban Vancouver in 1993.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 30, 2017, 10:12:25 AM
Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.

How do you get that?
Those results don't break down by area.  I think Surrey First won virtually every poll, though obviously some were closer than others.

I suppose that's possible, but with a ward system, I think Surrey would quickly develop a two party system, instead of being ruled by a mushy centre-right party that holds all of the seats.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on July 30, 2017, 11:51:49 AM
Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.

How do you get that?
Those results don't break down by area.  I think Surrey First won virtually every poll, though obviously some were closer than others.

I suppose that's possible, but with a ward system, I think Surrey would quickly develop a two party system, instead of being ruled by a mushy centre-right party that holds all of the seats.

Although Surrey Mayor Linda Heppner doesn't seem to be doing as badly as she did in her first year or so in office as mayor when I thought she was just hopeless, I would be very surprised if Surrey First won every council seat in 2018.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 31, 2017, 08:38:14 AM
Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.

How do you get that?
Those results don't break down by area.  I think Surrey First won virtually every poll, though obviously some were closer than others.

I suppose that's possible, but with a ward system, I think Surrey would quickly develop a two party system, instead of being ruled by a mushy centre-right party that holds all of the seats.

Although Surrey Mayor Linda Heppner doesn't seem to be doing as badly as she did in her first year or so in office as mayor when I thought she was just hopeless, I would be very surprised if Surrey First won every council seat in 2018.

Well, they could get 51% of the vote and still win all 8 seats because of the at-large voting system, so I'm not holding my breath.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on August 14, 2017, 03:54:20 PM
I would say the possibilities are as shown below

Andrew Wilkinson - From Lower Mainland where the party needs to win back lost seats and fairly competent minister, but may be seen as too closely tied to the former Clark government

Sam Sullivan - Also from Vancouver, former mayor seems reasonably likeable, but his term as mayor was less than stellar

Jas Johal - Visible minority which could help them in winning back seats in Surrey, media personality (and as we know with Justin Trudeau image matters a lot), from Lower Mainland, but lacks the experience so maybe needs to grow a bit more in his role as MLA before taking the plunge.

Kevin Falcon - Has lots of experience and comes from Surrey where the party needs to do better, but being a federal Conservative could limit his ability to gain votes as its mostly federal liberal not federal conservative votes the party needs to do better amongst.  Also too tied to the Campbell administration and I think the party would be better to have someone not too closely tied to either.

Diane Watts - Very popular mayor of Surrey which is a place the BC Liberals needs to gain.  Fairly moderate and also female.  Considering the Tories aren't likely to win in 2019 (or at least I think the BC Liberals have a much better chance at winning the next provincial than federal Tories winning the federal) she might want to return to provincial politics where her chances of being in government in the next five years are better.  That being said Harper was pretty hated in BC and anyone who ran under his banner will have that somewhat weighing them down.

James Moore - A competent cabinet minister federally and well liked in his riding.  Could use this as a stepping stone for a later federal run.  Being a cabinet minister not just candidate for the Harper government though will be his biggest albatross.  Besides with the issues with one of his daughters not sure he wants to run.

George Abbott - A moderate consensus oriented one so could appeal to those who found the party a bit too much of a turnoff.  He does however come from the Interior where the party is already strong not the Lower Mainland where it needs to gain.  Also said he has left politics for good.

Peter Milhobar - Successful mayor of Kamloops and up until recently Kamloops was a bellwether city that whomever won there won provincewide.  Low profile and may have weaknesses we do not know about.

Todd Stone - A strong cabinet minister, but probably too closely tied to the Clark government

Shirley Bond - An experienced cabinet minister and well respected amongst her colleagues.  Her main disadvantage is too tied to past administrations.

Some possible dark horses

Lois Jackson (mayor of Delta), Ellis Ross (First Nations leader who won in a traditional NDP riding), Mike de Jong.  Actually as a BC Liberal supporter myself I think Ellis Ross would be a very interesting one as First Nations and good at negotiations.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on August 18, 2017, 12:59:29 PM
Former Finance Minister and Deputy Premier Kevin Falcon not interested in leadership bid.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-liberals-new-leader-should-be-an-outsider-former-politician-says/article35918468/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com& (https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-liberals-new-leader-should-be-an-outsider-former-politician-says/article35918468/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&)


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on August 18, 2017, 08:17:17 PM
Former Finance Minister and Deputy Premier Kevin Falcon not interested in leadership bid.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-liberals-new-leader-should-be-an-outsider-former-politician-says/article35918468/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com& (https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-liberals-new-leader-should-be-an-outsider-former-politician-says/article35918468/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&)

That is probably a good thing as I think the party should probably choose someone not too heavily tied to the past.  Also he doesn't have a seat meaning someone would have to step aside giving the NDP-Greens a leg up.  I do though wonder why Clark didn't wait until the next leader was chosen as she is in a very safe riding so I thought it would have made more sense for her to go then and if the new leader didn't have a seat they would run there.


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Lotuslander on August 22, 2017, 08:04:04 PM
It's Insights West... and it's also still the dog days of summer... but their poll today on potential BC Lib leadership candidates still corroborates my above post about Dianne Watts...

Quote
Watts is the only prospective leader to clearly outperform the governing BC NDP (30% to 25% in favour of the BC Liberals, or 44% to 37% when undecided voters are removed).

“When British Columbians ponder the possibility of Dianne Watts as leader of the BC Liberals, the party’s fortunes change dramatically when compared with other possible contenders,” says Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs, at Insights West. “The Watts-led BC Liberals would enjoy a significantly higher level of support from voters aged 55 and over and residents of the Lower Mainland.”

https://insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NextBCL_Tables.pdf


Title: Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on August 22, 2017, 11:18:15 PM
It's Insights West... and it's also still the dog days of summer... but their poll today on potential BC Lib leadership candidates still corroborates my above post about Dianne Watts...

Quote
Watts is the only prospective leader to clearly outperform the governing BC NDP (30% to 25% in favour of the BC Liberals, or 44% to 37% when undecided voters are removed).

“When British Columbians ponder the possibility of Dianne Watts as leader of the BC Liberals, the party’s fortunes change dramatically when compared with other possible contenders,” says Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs, at Insights West. “The Watts-led BC Liberals would enjoy a significantly higher level of support from voters aged 55 and over and residents of the Lower Mainland.”

https://insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NextBCL_Tables.pdf

Interesting although at this point I think whom is best or not is more name recognition.  If the NDP does a good job they will win no matter what, while if they do a lousy job all that will matter is how big a majority the BC Liberals get.  Diane Watts being from Surrey where she was a popular mayor helps in winning back seats there, but being a federal Conservative is somewhat a negative as Harper was quite disliked in BC and I suspect Scheer who is very similar to Harper will be too.  At the same time she was never a member of the cabinet and always more moderate than most of her party so not the same baggage as say if James Moore was chosen.  Also not being a member of either the Clark or Campbell government is an asset.  Interestingly enough her seat probably would have gone Liberal federally if not for her (yes it usually goes Conservative no matter what but Harper was so hated in BC by 2015 that you saw Liberals winning many ridings they wouldn't normally win) and likewise there will be a lot of pressure from caucus not to resign until the Tories rebound in BC as right now I suspect the Liberals would win a by-election in her riding if she vacates it.  Also without a provincial seat that could mean someone else has to stand down unless she jumps in before Kelowna West is filled thus giving the NDP more breathing room to pass legislation thus that might be the other reason they want someone already in caucus so they don't give up a seat for 6 months.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on August 31, 2017, 12:07:48 PM
Leadership election will take place on February 3rd.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-liberals-open-leadership-race-set-rules (http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-liberals-open-leadership-race-set-rules)


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on January 03, 2018, 06:19:44 PM
Bump

Leadership election will take place one month from today

Anyway below our the candidates and a small blurb on their policies I got off of Wikipedia.

Mike de Jong-Former Finance Minster and MLA for Abbotsford West

Quote
Proposes an all-day kindergarten program for four-year-olds, financial incentives for local governments who can complete zoning and permitting processes related to 50 residential units or fewer within 10 months, relocating government offices related to forest and lands ministry to Prince George.


Michael Lee-MLA for Vancouver-Langara

Quote
Proposes to eliminate LNG tax, complete the Site C dam, build rapid transit beneath the Broadway Corridor to UBC, phase out the use of disposable plastic grocery bags, increase the deposit on all beverage containers, create an enhanced internship tax credit, and increase funding and access to legal aid.

Todd Stone-Former Transportation Minster and MLA for Kamloops-South Thompson

Quote
Proposes to eliminate the hospital capital tax, create an agricultural electricity rate, double the Rural Dividend Fund, expand the teaching of coding in elementary and high school, delivering government programs and services online, increasing support to Buy Local campaigns and agricultural fairs, expanding trade offices in Asia, provide support for an agriplex in the Comox Valley.

Sam Sullivan-Former Mayor of Vancouver and MLA for Vancouver-False Creek
Quote
Proposes to privatize the Liquor Distribution Branch and elements of the health care system, introduce charter schools to BC, create a modified sales tax to replace the provincial sales tax

Dianne Watts-Former Mayor of Surrey and Former MP for  South Surrey—White Rock
Quote
Proposes to direct tax revenue from cannabis to municipalities, make BC Ferries an extension of the highway system and apply the senior's fare on BC Ferries to all sailings.[

Andrew Wilkinson-Former Attorney General and MLA for  Vancouver-Quilchena
Quote
Proposes to privatize government-owned liquor stores, abolish the small business income tax for family businesses, create an office to attract American investment to BC, and create a northern premier and cabinet office in Prince George with video-conferencing services to representatives in Victoria.

--------------
So far it seems Andrew Wilkinson has the most establishment support followed closely by Todd Stone and Mike de Jong. However as Christy Clark's victory in 2011 showed endorsements do not mean everything when it comes to predicting who is going to win a leadership election. For now I would say Watts is still the slight favorite with de Jong, Stone and Wilkinson following close behind.

Anyway who do you all prefer/think is going to win?



Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on January 03, 2018, 07:08:46 PM
I won't be Sam Sullivan or Michael Lee, but between the other four my thoughts are:

Mike de Jong - Status quo relatively experienced and inoffensive to most although doubt he will come in first on the first ballot but could pick up enough second choices to put him over the top.

Todd Stone - Definitely has a decent chance, especially considering he should do well in the interior, but I wouldn't go as far as to call him the frontrunner.

Diane Watts - She has the most name recognition and despite lack of endorsements definitely could win.  Her problem is lack of policy and I've heard has performed quite poorly in the debates so while she was the frontrunner at the beginning, now I think she has fallen back a bit but not out of it.

Andrew Wilkinson - If I had to pick a frontrunner, I would pick him, but still has chances of winning are probably under 50% although higher than the others.

As for myself, I am still undecided although it won't be Sam Sullivan (he is my MLA and has some good ideas, but not the best choice overall).  My plan is to read each of their platforms carefully and whichever I think is the best overall I will choose.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 03, 2018, 08:35:08 PM
A leadership election in Canada that doesn't take three years to complete? What is this insanity?


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on January 03, 2018, 08:45:27 PM
A leadership election in Canada that doesn't take three years to complete? What is this insanity?

BC has a minority government too so they need to have a leader sooner in case the government falls.  Generally leadership races when there is a majority take longer as there is no urgency and better to do it right whereas when a minority government they are quicker just in case the government falls sooner than expected.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on January 03, 2018, 10:26:17 PM
I won't be Sam Sullivan or Michael Lee, but between the other four my thoughts are:

Mike de Jong - Status quo relatively experienced and inoffensive to most although doubt he will come in first on the first ballot but could pick up enough second choices to put him over the top.

Todd Stone - Definitely has a decent chance, especially considering he should do well in the interior, but I wouldn't go as far as to call him the frontrunner.

Diane Watts - She has the most name recognition and despite lack of endorsements definitely could win.  Her problem is lack of policy and I've heard has performed quite poorly in the debates so while she was the frontrunner at the beginning, now I think she has fallen back a bit but not out of it.

Andrew Wilkinson - If I had to pick a frontrunner, I would pick him, but still has chances of winning are probably under 50% although higher than the others.

As for myself, I am still undecided although it won't be Sam Sullivan (he is my MLA and has some good ideas, but not the best choice overall).  My plan is to read each of their platforms carefully and whichever I think is the best overall I will choose.


Other than the media is naturally more focused on the government than the opposition, I have no idea how de Jong survived the money laundering at the B.C Casinos.  Apparently the government knew about it and intentionally did nothing.  de Jong was the Minister responsible.  I would assume the other leadership candidates will hammer de Jong over this for the next month.

If de Jong were still the Minister, I can't see how we wouldn't have had to resign over this,
all though that sort of thing rarely happens anymore.

As to the others:

Andrew Wilkinson is hopeless.  Like Chris Alexander and Bill Morneau, he is a highly intelligent person completely lacking common sense. 

Todd Stone, I think he should delete, delete, delete his candidacy.  He's probably not the worst guy in the world, but he was a fairly major player in Christy Clark's 'war on Metro Vancouver.'


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 05, 2018, 05:01:19 PM
A leadership election in Canada that doesn't take three years to complete? What is this insanity?

Well, it is only a provincial party we're talking about.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: adma on January 06, 2018, 12:30:22 AM
A leadership election in Canada that doesn't take three years to complete? What is this insanity?

Well, it is only a provincial party we're talking about.

*And*, a provincial party that could still make it to power in advance of a scheduled election date, due to the nature of the coalition government presently in charge.  (Remember: the BCGrits alone still have a plurality of members.)


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Njall on January 22, 2018, 11:37:16 PM
Mainstreet has Dianne Watts ahead with 29.9% amongst decided and leaning BC Liberal voters. (https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/horgan-ndp-lead-bc-liberals-bc-liberal-leadership-race-headed-multiple-ballots/) Other candidates as follows:

Andrew Wilkinson - 21.3%
Todd Stone - 19.6%
Mike de Jong - 16.3%
Michael Lee - 10.5%
Sam Sullivan - 2.4%


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Jeppe on January 23, 2018, 12:13:36 AM
What do you think is the magic number that Watts needs to hit in the first ballot to win the leadership election? Maxime Bernie got 29% last year and barely lost.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on January 23, 2018, 02:41:18 AM
Those are general poll numbers amongst the general population not members.  Watts is the most popular amongst the general public whereas Wilkinson and De Jong maybe less so with the general public but far more amongst the committed members.  Todd Stone cannot be ruled out and Michael Lee does well amongst younger voters and signed up many new ones.  Actually I expect this to take at least three ballots and the only prediction I will make is Sam Sullivan is knocked off after the first ballot.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Jeppe on January 23, 2018, 09:22:27 AM
Those are general poll numbers amongst the general population not members.  Watts is the most popular amongst the general public whereas Wilkinson and De Jong maybe less so with the general public but far more amongst the committed members.  Todd Stone cannot be ruled out and Michael Lee does well amongst younger voters and signed up many new ones.  Actually I expect this to take at least three ballots and the only prediction I will make is Sam Sullivan is knocked off after the first ballot.

Watts is at 30% amongst the Liberal Party Leadership electorate, not the population at large. It doesn’t say anything about her leading amongst the general population, just the leadership electorate.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on January 23, 2018, 09:48:38 PM
Those are general poll numbers amongst the general population not members.  Watts is the most popular amongst the general public whereas Wilkinson and De Jong maybe less so with the general public but far more amongst the committed members.  Todd Stone cannot be ruled out and Michael Lee does well amongst younger voters and signed up many new ones.  Actually I expect this to take at least three ballots and the only prediction I will make is Sam Sullivan is knocked off after the first ballot.

Watts is at 30% amongst the Liberal Party Leadership electorate, not the population at large. It doesn’t say anything about her leading amongst the general population, just the leadership electorate.

It is amongst BC Liberal supporters but not necessarily members.  I would ignore polls here for a few reasons.

1.  It is only members that matter and accurately surveying them is tough never mind typically only 1/3 to 1/2 of members vote so tough to figure out who will and won't.

2.  This will go to multiple ballots so trying to work out all the possible outcomes and everybody's second, third, and fourth choice is very challenging.  The person who comes in first on the first ballot won't necessarily win, in fact the third place candidate could quite possibly end up winning if he or she gets a lot of second choices.

3.  Each riding is worth 100 points so overall support is irrelevant, so winning 60% in a riding with only 10 members has the same impact as that in one with 10,000 members even though the former is 6 votes the latter is 6,000 votes.  Membership numbers vary greatly between ridings so doing well in the ridings with few members is a lot more efficient than doing well in those with a lot of members.

If it were a one member one vote and only two candidates I might take the polls half seriously, but due to the way it works, I ignore them.  In the case of the Saskatchewan NDP, I agree Ryan Mieli will likely be the next leader but for the Saskatchewan Party and BC Liberals, I would not put too much stock into those.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on January 24, 2018, 06:23:57 AM
I can't remember if I posted something like this for the Federal Conservative leadership race. I know I predicted Maxime Bernier would narrowly defeat Erin O'Toole.  I'm pretty sure I read that O'Toole spoke better French than Andrew Scheer which I thought would push O'Toole ahead of Andrew Scheer.

1st Ballot
1.Dianne Watts, 28%
2.Mike de Jong, 19%
3.Todd Stone, 19%
4.Andrew Wilkinson, 17%
5.Michael Lee, 14%
6.Sam Sullivan, 2%

Assuming only Sullivan is dropped on the second ballot, skip that ballot.

3rd ballot
1.Dianne Watts, 36%
2.Todd Stone, 22%
3.Mike de Jong, 22%
4.Andrew Wilkinson, 20%

4th ballot
1.Dianne Watts, 41%
2.Mike de Jong, 34%
3.Todd Stone, 25%

5th ballot
1.Dianne Watts, 52%
2.Mike de Jong, 48%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the first ballot I predict the 3 MLAs from Vancouver to get 50% of the points but with Dianne Watts to win narrowly in Vancouver due to the Vancouver MLAs splitting the vote. (I predict Sullivan will be a fairly distant third, so it's mainly Vancouver MLAs Wilkinson and Lee splitting the points.)

In the Vancouver suburbs, I predict Michael Lee will come in first, with Dianne Watts in second and Wilkinson to be a distant third.

In the three regions with local MLAs, I predict they'll win their regions.
In the city of Surrey I predict Watts to get just over half the points.

In the Fraser Valley, I predict deJong will get about half the points.

In the Southern Interior, I predict Todd Stone will get just under half the points.

In the North, Center and Coast, I predict Todd Stone will get the most points but that Dianne Watts and Andrew Wilkinson will also make a strong showing.

In Southern Vancouver Island, I predict that Wilkinson and de Jong will split the ex 'government insider vote' and Dianne Watts will sneak up the middle.

In Northern Vancouver Island I predict a very similar showing to the result in the North, Center and Coast.

For the 3rd ballot, I predict a good deal of Lee's support will go to Dianne Watts. For what it's worth, both of them are 'red Tories' but, more importantly, both of them are the newcomers.

Andrew Wilkinson's growth potential is limited because he's a shmuck.

For the 4th ballot, I don't put a lot of stock in the deal between Wilkinson and de Jong.  Unlike at a delegated convention, there is no way for the backers of the leading candidate to talk up the delegates of the candidate who just endorsed the leading candidate and there is no group dynamic effect.

However, as I wrote above, I do think there are obvious similarities in de Jong and Wilkinson in that they are both essentially Liberal Party insiders.  de Jong as one of the leading Ministers for the life of the B.C Liberal government, and Wilkinson as a former Party President (or Executive Director, whatever position he had.)

I also think that Todd Stone's growth potential is limited in the Greater Vancouver region (which does after all account for 48 of the 87 B.C ridings) because of the role he played (along with Peter Fassbender) in Christy Clark's 'war on Greater Vancouver.'  (I came up with that phrase, but I'm sure many people in the Greater Vancouver region, including many B.C Liberals, would agree with it.) I also think Todd Stone's growth potential is limited because he's a shmuck.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Although it's possible whoever wins could grow into the job, from what I've seen and read the candidates in this race are all pretty poor and none of them are obvious future Premiers.  If the B.C NDP loses the next election, I think it will be, as it often is for them, that they've defeated themselves.

I think de Jong is clearly the most credible future Premier at this point, but he carries 25 years of accumulated baggage.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on January 31, 2018, 04:35:22 PM
Voting is set to start tomorrow.  With the ICBC story and some other negative commentary, I expect Todd Stone to start sinking like his name.

1st ballot
Dianne Watts 32%
Mike de Jong 21%
Todd Stone 16%
Andrew Wilkinson 16%
Michael Lee 13%
Sam Sullivan 2%

3rd ballot
Dianne Watts 40%
Mike de Jong 25%
Andrew Wilkinson 19%
Todd Stone 16%

4th ballot
Dianne Watts 44%
Mike de Jong 31%
Andrew Wilkinson 25%

5th ballot
Dianne Watts 53%
Mike de Jong 47%


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on January 31, 2018, 04:54:55 PM
As a side note, I'd like it if they started the first ballot by announcing 'and the winner is La La Land."


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Cynthia on January 31, 2018, 11:50:06 PM
I want Watts, who's actually competent
But seriously how's the vote going now


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on February 01, 2018, 12:08:00 AM
I want Watts, who's actually competent
But seriously how's the vote going now

Hello, it starts tomorrow and we won't find out until it closes on February 3rd.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on February 01, 2018, 12:13:47 AM
Mileslunn who do you believe would be the most electable of the six. If I had to guess I would say Lee do to his more centrist positions. I wonder if Watts might alienate some of the federal liberals that have voted  BC Liberal in the past because of her connections to the Conservative party. De Jong is very experienced but may be too close to the past BC Liberal government.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Cynthia on February 01, 2018, 12:18:57 AM
Mileslunn who do you believe would be the most electable of the six. If I had to guess I would say Lee do to his more centrist positions. I wonder if Watts might alienate some of the federal liberals that have voted  BC Liberal in the past because of her connections to the Conservative party. De Jong is very experienced but may be too close to the past BC Liberal government.
As a BC resident who voted for NDP last time I'd happily vote for one of Lee, Stone, or Watts.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on February 02, 2018, 11:29:31 PM
Anyway here are my predictions for tomorrow
1st ballot
Watts 27%
Lee 23%
De Jong 21%
Wilkinson 16%
Stone 8%
Sullivan 5%

Third ballot
Watts 30%
Lee 26%
De Jong 26%
Wilkinson 18%

Fourth ballot
Watts 36%
Lee 33%
De Jong 31%

Final Ballod
Lee 53%
Watts 47%



Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: adma on February 02, 2018, 11:49:58 PM
And all of this is playing out against this opposite-side-of-the-chamber tableau...

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/first-ndp-premier-of-b-c-dave-barrett-dead-at-87


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on February 03, 2018, 12:31:10 AM
Any idea how long this leadership vote is going to take?  The Vancouver Institute lecture is at 8:15 PM tomorrow and I'd kind of like to go to it, but I also want to see the 'convention.'


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on February 03, 2018, 12:35:28 AM
Any idea how long this leadership vote is going to take?  The Vancouver Institute lecture is at 8:15 PM tomorrow and I'd kind of like to go to it, but I also want to see the 'convention.'
Well voting concludes at 5 pm tomorrow and judging based on past elections I would guess should take an hour to  90 minutes to announce the results.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on February 03, 2018, 12:37:16 AM
Any idea how long this leadership vote is going to take?  The Vancouver Institute lecture is at 8:15 PM tomorrow and I'd kind of like to go to it, but I also want to see the 'convention.'
Well voting concludes at 5 pm tomorrow and judging based on past elections I would guess should take an hour to and 90 minutes to announce the results.

Thanks! A tight fit.

This is the lecture:
"UNSEEN ENEMY: The risks of a global pandemic and how to prevent it" is this Saturday's Vancouver Institute lecture to be delivered by Janet Tobias, multiple award-winning director/producer.
https://www.facebook.com/TheVancouverInstitute/


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Lotuslander on February 03, 2018, 02:35:00 AM
BC Lib leadership race is not OMOV - it's 100 points for every riding irrespective if that riding has 5,000 members or 100 members. Membership counts for nothing here. Makes final outcome a complete crap-shoot.

That said... some tea leaves. Yesterday the Stone campaign stated that final ballot will be between Watts & Stone. Later on both the Lee & De Jong camps disputed that & stated that final ballot will be between them & Watts. Quite clear there (along with other corroborating evidence) that Watts will finish 1st on the first ballot. Thereafter, very difficult to read.

FWIW, as for 1st ballot results - 2 leaked internal CATI polls by Innovative Research from last October/November had this last decided result of BC Lib members (without material change month/month) on 1st ballot:

Watts - 41%
De Jong - 19%
Stone - 15%
Wilkinson - 12%
Lee - 7%
Sullivan - 5%

Perhaps just grain of salt stuff.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on February 03, 2018, 08:17:31 PM
The voting period has closed and results  to be announced at 6 pm pst.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on February 03, 2018, 08:57:03 PM
1st Ballot results are

1.  Diane Watts
2.  Michael Lee
3.  Andrew Wilkinson
4.  Todd Stone
5.  Mike de Jong
6.  Sam Sullivan

Quite tight as expected amongst the first five, but I am going to go out on a limb and see Michael Lee wins this.  Interesting the top two are both outsiders suggesting people feel someone least tied to past leaders is best.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on February 03, 2018, 09:43:00 PM
De Jong out on second ballot so that is probably good news for Wilkinson. Now a fight between establishment and outsiders with outsiders ahead.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Harlow on February 03, 2018, 09:58:13 PM
Down to just Watts, Lee, and Wilkinson.

Wilkinson ahead of Lee on 4th ballot by just 30 points, wow.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on February 03, 2018, 10:00:39 PM
Lee is now out so down to Wilkinson or Watts.  I think Watts might win this as Lee is an outsider so I could see a lot of his support going to Watts instead of Wilkinson.  I suspect it will be close either way.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Harlow on February 03, 2018, 10:11:39 PM
It's Wilkinson.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on February 03, 2018, 10:13:20 PM
Talk about a close one as expected.  Whether the party made the right or wrong choice only time will tell.  He was not my first choice, but I think he is a reasonably decent person.  Admittedly for the BC Liberals, the results of the PR referendum will be critical.  If PR passes, I would say they have a very steep hill to climb to win the next election, but if it fails, their chances are much better although not certain.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: adma on February 03, 2018, 10:27:51 PM

FWIW, as for 1st ballot results - 2 leaked internal CATI polls by Innovative Research from last October/November had this last decided result of BC Lib members (without material change month/month) on 1st ballot:

Watts - 41%
De Jong - 19%
Stone - 15%
Wilkinson - 12%
Lee - 7%
Sullivan - 5%

Perhaps just grain of salt stuff.


Is it ever.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on February 03, 2018, 10:33:15 PM
Wilkinson is a terrible person.  He is a moron with a great resume completely lacking in common sense (or decency.)

The Liberal convention went long so I couldn't make it the lecture but the disaster horror movie 'Ants' is on television tonight.  I don't know if I'll watch it, but I think the B.C Liberals have their own disaster horror on their hands with Wilkinson as leader.

If you think this is over the top, if you can find it I'd urge you to check out the interview Wilkinson had with CKNW radio show host 'Drex' after David Eby initially released the report on ICBC.

Wilkinson commented something like "the NDP has now had a full week to say what they're going to do about ICBC."

Drex "That's hardly fair is it?  You guys had 16 years."

Wilkinson's response (or lack of one) was the radio equivalent of the deer in the headlights.

So, that's how pathetic Wilkinson is.

Edit to add: I was wrong, it's still available
https://omny.fm/shows/steele-drex/bc-liberal-mla-andrew-wilkinson-reacts-to-the-icbc

I forgot that later in the interview Jody Vance also asked several questions.  I think by far the most important question she asked is whether any B.C Liberal had read the report while the Liberals were still in government.  Wilkinson's 'no' is clearly a lie as Mike De Jong had read the report and Todd Stone read a redacted version of the report.

Edit, I listened to it again and Wilkinson sidestepped the question saying merely "I understand this report was leaked...Friday or Saturday."

I guess this raises the question: What did Wilkinson know about who in the Liberal government had read the report and when did he know it?"


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Lotuslander on February 04, 2018, 03:58:26 AM
So Wilkinson has won the race. Who woulda thunk? BTW, Wilkinson is a federal *blue* Liberal (red tory-type).

Tidbits from Province Columnist Mike Smyth's column tonight:

Quote
I have no doubt he will make [BC NDP's]  skin crawl and get under their skin, too. Nobody in the legislature drives the New Democrats wild with indignation quite like Wilkinson.

And that includes Premier John Horgan, whose hair-trigger temper is famously easy to trip.

Wilkinson could bring out the worst in Hulk Horgan. Watching these two alpha males lock horns will be entertaining, for sure.

But if the economy starts to wobble, the public could turn against the New Democrats.

If and when that happens, Wilkinson will be there, ready to rip them to pieces. If he can overcome a charisma deficit to appeal to suburban voters, it’s easy to picture him winning an election and becoming premier.

http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-can-the-liberals-brainy-new-boss-win-big?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#pq=okbCeg

Now 2 scenarios that could see current GreeNDP minority gov't fall:

1st Scenario:
 
This fall, 2018 the PR referendum will occur. To date, media narrative has been "Fix is In", which connotes deceit to BC public IMHO. Akin to *Gerrymandering* in some US districts. I will stick my neck out and say it will likely fail for those and plethora of other reasons.

The BC Greens back the current NDP gov't as the PR referendum is their proverbial *Holy Grail*. If that PR referendum fails... no reason for Greens to support NDP based upon other reasons.

Current other reasons? LNG. BC Green Party leader Andrew Weaver has recently stated that if BC NDP supports any LNG development in BC... it will be crossing the "line in the sand" & Greens will vote gov't down in non-confidence. Only chance for that to happen is vote on next month's BC budget (confidence vote) or March, 2019 budget vote after likely PR referendum fail.

At that time, NDP/Green fractures likely more prevalent (based upon just today) & NDP may have major fall in opinion polling, which the Greens may also *wear*. Remember that, after October, 1991 BC election... took only 1 1/2 years until March, 1993 before then BC NDP support collapsed to 3rd place (after BC Libs/BC Reform) & negative NDP brand in BC also caused fed NDP support collapse to just 2 seats in fall, 1993 fed election.

More Ominous Scenario #2:

Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning into BC.

Off the bat, relatively recent Angus Reid opinion poll (opt-in online methodology) on BCer's attitudes upon same:

()

Moreover, over past 8+ years all opinion polls in BC corroborate that just ~20% of BCers are *STRONGLY* opposed to the KM twinning. Key figure albeit they have loudest voices. Typical for BC in terms of silent majority.

Current KM TMP is already over-subscribed by 60% - 70% every month. Ergo, only refinery in southern BC - the old, small Parkland (formerly Chevron) refinery in Burnaby is unable to source light oil source thereto. It only produces premium blend gasoline + jet fuel.

As such, they import via rail - 110 unit BNSF oil tanker trains from Bakken Basin in North Dakota (which traverse environmentally-sensitive Fraser River estuary in BC) as well 110-unit CN Rail oil tanker trains that traverse Fraser Canyon (high up on cliff with rock face below). If any of those puppies derail ... likely major contamination for salmon-bearing Fraser River.

BTW, diluted bitumen or dilbit has flown through existing KM TMP for last 30 years and represented 39% of flow back in 2012.

What folk also do not understand is that the existing KM TMP (TransMountain Pipeline) is a unique *batched* pipeline in that light oil, heavy oil & refined products flow through same. BC is essentially a *captive market* to current TMP in terms of refined products - gasoline & diesel albeit good chunk of jet fuel from Parkland/Cherry Point.

Keep foregoing as background info.

If that refined product (gasoline/diesel, etc.) stops flowing through TMP... BC has no other alternative source (forget WA State refineries - already producing at max for their geographic area - never mind priced in $US). What happens then? Major fuel shortages/gas price spikes in BC - impacts everyone from commuters, commercial trucking, transit buses, BC Ferries, etc. Major economic catastrophe for BC.

Why do I bring this matter up? Because Alberta has legal authority to determine what flows through current TMP to BC. AB Preem Lougheed, for example, previously utilized said authority during his tenure:

Quote
Since at least the 1970s, the province has had authority to prohibit shipments of energy products outside the province.

Former PC premier Peter Lougheed once cut the volume of crude oil sent to eastern refineries, as part of his epic battle with Ottawa over control of the industry.

Energy Minister Don Getty, later the premier, stopped signing permits for natural gas going down the pipeline to Ontario refineries.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/braid-in-pipeline-dispute-alberta-has-ways-to-get-tough-with-b-c

With BC NDP gov't recently attempting to prohibit flow of bitumen into BC... both AB NDP preem Notley & SK NDP leader has called out BC NDP gov't as "political game playing" as quite apparent BC NDP gov't trying to drag out KM twinning for years to come. Again, who woulda thunk?

Moreover, AB NDP preem Notley has already begun trade war action against BC as initial retaliation. But here's the kicker - Jason Kenney's AB UCP is likely to win gov't next May, 2019. Kenney has already stated that he will shut off refined products flowing into BC in TMP. As matter of fact, Kenney was on Vancouver radio last week stating that he doesn't blame people of BC but hardcore enviros in BC NDP gov't.

When (yes when) Kenney shuts off refined product flow through TMP to BC next ~May, 2019 in retaliation to BC NDP's stance on KM... and BC gas shortages erupt with concurrent gas price spikes.. does anyone here seriuosly believe that Horgan likely stating that BCer's wouldn't care about maybe $5/litre gas & they will walk/bike will fly with public?

More likely BCers will take out their flaming torches & pitchforks against NDP gov't & it will fall under too much pressure.

So we have 2 plausible/likely scenarios for current BC NDP gov't to fall by next spring, 2019. Anyone beg to differ? If so, def look forward to your analysis then.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Lotuslander on February 04, 2018, 06:12:27 AM
BTW, Patti Bacchus, former centre-left/left Vancouver School Board chair with deep BC NDP roots - her take on new BC Lib leader Wilkinson:

Quote
I think Wilkinson is a bigger threat to bc ndp than most realize. He’s relatively socially progressive and will be able to draw more of the centre than the other candidates would have. I suspect he’ll transform the party and make it more palatable to centrist voters.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on February 04, 2018, 10:07:20 AM
the fact the pipline approval numbers for both Greens and the NDP are the same is ... counterintuitive.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: DL on February 04, 2018, 10:23:08 AM
Mainstreet has Dianne Watts ahead with 29.9% amongst decided and leaning BC Liberal voters. (https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/horgan-ndp-lead-bc-liberals-bc-liberal-leadership-race-headed-multiple-ballots/) Other candidates as follows:

Andrew Wilkinson - 21.3%
Todd Stone - 19.6%
Mike de Jong - 16.3%
Michael Lee - 10.5%
Sam Sullivan - 2.4%

This is the fourth party leadership contest in a row that Mainstreet has attempted to poll and got totally wrong...though not quite as totally wrong as last weeks Sask Party leadership. Honestly why do they even bother trying to poll leadership contests? They get it dead wrong every single time and it’s bad for their already damaged reputation


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on February 04, 2018, 04:38:09 PM
Mainstreet has Dianne Watts ahead with 29.9% amongst decided and leaning BC Liberal voters. (https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/horgan-ndp-lead-bc-liberals-bc-liberal-leadership-race-headed-multiple-ballots/) Other candidates as follows:

Andrew Wilkinson - 21.3%
Todd Stone - 19.6%
Mike de Jong - 16.3%
Michael Lee - 10.5%
Sam Sullivan - 2.4%

This is the fourth party leadership contest in a row that Mainstreet has attempted to poll and got totally wrong...though not quite as totally wrong as last weeks Sask Party leadership. Honestly why do they even bother trying to poll leadership contests? They get it dead wrong every single time and it’s bad for their already damaged reputation

It's impossible to poll leadership elections unless you have what you did in the last federal Liberal leadership race where someone runs away with it.  What you can do is poll how each candidate would fair in a general election, otherwise whom would be best for the party to choose but that doesn't mean they will follow.  The problem is in most leadership races, less than half of the members actually vote.  Also you have to ask about second and third choices as those play a major role (Just think if Michael Lee only got a few more second choices of Stone and De Jong he would have knocked off Wilkinson and probably won it).  Also every riding has equal weighting so a riding with only 10 members has the same weighting as one with 1,000 members so pretty much you would have to survey every member to even get a slight indication.  Otherwise unless there is a clear favourite, its a crapshoot.  Now I think in the last federal Liberal leadership race where Justin Trudeau got 80% on the first ballot, a poll would pick that up, but that was a blowout not close like the recent races have been.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Njall on February 04, 2018, 04:50:29 PM
Mainstreet has Dianne Watts ahead with 29.9% amongst decided and leaning BC Liberal voters. (https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/horgan-ndp-lead-bc-liberals-bc-liberal-leadership-race-headed-multiple-ballots/) Other candidates as follows:

Andrew Wilkinson - 21.3%
Todd Stone - 19.6%
Mike de Jong - 16.3%
Michael Lee - 10.5%
Sam Sullivan - 2.4%

This is the fourth party leadership contest in a row that Mainstreet has attempted to poll and got totally wrong...though not quite as totally wrong as last weeks Sask Party leadership. Honestly why do they even bother trying to poll leadership contests? They get it dead wrong every single time and it’s bad for their already damaged reputation

It's impossible to poll leadership elections unless you have what you did in the last federal Liberal leadership race where someone runs away with it.  What you can do is poll how each candidate would fair in a general election, otherwise whom would be best for the party to choose but that doesn't mean they will follow.  The problem is in most leadership races, less than half of the members actually vote.  Also you have to ask about second and third choices as those play a major role (Just think if Michael Lee only got a few more second choices of Stone and De Jong he would have knocked off Wilkinson and probably won it).  Also every riding has equal weighting so a riding with only 10 members has the same weighting as one with 1,000 members so pretty much you would have to survey every member to even get a slight indication.  Otherwise unless there is a clear favourite, its a crapshoot.  Now I think in the last federal Liberal leadership race where Justin Trudeau got 80% on the first ballot, a poll would pick that up, but that was a blowout not close like the recent races have been.

FWIW, Mainstreet says they poll leadership races based off of past federal and provincial donor lists. It could be that the federal CPC component of the BC Liberals were over-emphasized in polling. It's very possible that a similar thing happened in the Sask Party Leadership where Mainstream had the more conservative Cheveldayoff ahead.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on February 04, 2018, 05:16:28 PM
Yeah, Wilkinson is a very socially liberal guy. He's got a gay son who I... know.

I'll be interesting. I think Wilkinson could be painted as an elitist weenie pretty easily, but he's also chill and seems approachable, so who knows what'll happen.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on February 04, 2018, 10:54:59 PM
Yeah, Wilkinson is a very socially liberal guy. He's got a gay son who I... know.

I'll be interesting. I think Wilkinson could be painted as an elitist weenie pretty easily, but he's also chill and seems approachable, so who knows what'll happen.

He's pretty fly for a white guy.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on February 04, 2018, 11:25:02 PM
This was a flop for the BC Libs. If anything it gives the Greens a chance to grow.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Cynthia on February 05, 2018, 12:38:44 AM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on February 05, 2018, 01:25:15 AM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Cynthia on February 07, 2018, 04:03:39 PM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

I'm just really not fond of the empty house tax thing, and for that reason it's at least 95% likely I vote Liberal or not vote at all

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?

Edit: it's not actually empty (fully rented out except two rooms and my family live there around 3 months of the year), but from my understanding of the proposed plan I would still be taxed at 2%. I'm not opposed to raising taxes; for example, if BC gov't increase my property taxes by 100% and use that money to fund affordable housing, I have zero problem with it; I am COMPLETELY not opposed to taxing vacant propertiesbut 2% estimated value tax on houses that are fully rented out seems ridiculous IMO.

All my rents are below market and I have never raised rent for the past 5 years.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 07, 2018, 04:11:56 PM
Vancouver is dealing with a huge housing shortage due to foreign ownership, and is pricing out middle and work class residents. How would you deal with the situation?

My take is if you can afford to homes, you can afford to pay the tax. If you can't pay the tax, then maybe you shouldn't be owning two homes. There are thousands of BCians who actually contribute to the local economy by living there that deserve it way more.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on February 07, 2018, 06:08:23 PM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

I'm just really not fond of the empty house tax thing, and for that reason it's at least 95% likely I vote Liberal or not vote at all

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?

You can keep it. You just either have to rent it out or pay a tax on it.  I don't think that is too onerous, especially since you can hire a property management company to take care of the rental part.

For instance: http://www.easyrent.ca/


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on February 07, 2018, 06:27:36 PM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

I'm just really not fond of the empty house tax thing, and for that reason it's at least 95% likely I vote Liberal or not vote at all

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?
Consider yourself lucky since it's almost impossible to own a home in the lower mainland.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on February 07, 2018, 11:45:28 PM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

I'm just really not fond of the empty house tax thing, and for that reason it's at least 95% likely I vote Liberal or not vote at all

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?
This is a hilariously out-of-touch post.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Cynthia on February 08, 2018, 02:35:02 AM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

I'm just really not fond of the empty house tax thing, and for that reason it's at least 95% likely I vote Liberal or not vote at all

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?

You can keep it. You just either have to rent it out or pay a tax on it.  I don't think that is too onerous, especially since you can hire a property management company to take care of the rental part.

For instance: http://www.easyrent.ca/
It is rented out, but unfortunately they would tax rented out properties as well.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Cynthia on February 08, 2018, 02:35:37 AM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?

That's not an accurate representation of the EHT, but yeah, you absolutely should not be able to "keep a house" you're not living in for an extended period of time, at least in an ideal world. Empty homes shouldn't exist as long as people without homes do too.
It's fully rented out, which they would also tax under their proposed plan.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Cynthia on February 08, 2018, 02:36:49 AM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

I'm just really not fond of the empty house tax thing, and for that reason it's at least 95% likely I vote Liberal or not vote at all

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?
This is a hilariously out-of-touch post.
I completely understand how ridiculous that post was, but the problem is it's not empty


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Cynthia on February 08, 2018, 02:38:38 AM
Vancouver is dealing with a huge housing shortage due to foreign ownership, and is pricing out middle and work class residents. How would you deal with the situation?

My take is if you can afford to homes, you can afford to pay the tax. If you can't pay the tax, then maybe you shouldn't be owning two homes. There are thousands of BCians who actually contribute to the local economy by living there that deserve it way more.
I only own this home and intend to return to that home when I complete whatever I have to do abroad


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 08, 2018, 07:16:36 AM
Vancouver is dealing with a huge housing shortage due to foreign ownership, and is pricing out middle and work class residents.

I feel bad for Torontonians and Vancouverites. Seems nearly impossible to have a middle class lifestyle out there. Perhaps some of them should move out east? Halifax has a comparable unemployment rate, higher median household income (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm) and home prices are cheap. My wife and I are buying a starter home next year and our budget is < $200,000.

How would you deal with the situation?

My take is if you can afford to homes, you can afford to pay the tax. If you can't pay the tax, then maybe you shouldn't be owning two homes. There are thousands of BCians who actually contribute to the local economy by living there that deserve it way more.

I really doubt the tax will be that effective. The stereotypical PRC multi-millionaire using a house as insurance in case things go south is not going to blink at an extra $5k in property tax or whatever it is. Besides, Cynthia said the tax covers rentals... Taxing additional supply is not going to solve the housing shortage :P

In a perfect world (assuming I'm running all three levels of government) I would:

1) Significantly tighten mortgage lending rules

2) Hike property taxes on single family homes, not just on foreign owned or empty homes. This will hopefully promote building more medium density townhouses semis and lowrise apartments.You

3) Encourage building like crazy. Half the problem is supply. Steamroll NIMBY opposition and any foolish building/planning regulations on the books (not sure what Vancouver's are, but it would generally involve making it easier to build the homes described  in #2; zone more places for stuff other than single family homes, cut parking requirements, setback requirements etc)


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: 136or142 on February 08, 2018, 07:24:47 AM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?

That's not an accurate representation of the EHT, but yeah, you absolutely should not be able to "keep a house" you're not living in for an extended period of time, at least in an ideal world. Empty homes shouldn't exist as long as people without homes do too.
It's fully rented out, which they would also tax under their proposed plan.

On the one hand, I assume you know your situation better that I do.  On the other hand, what you write here makes no sense to me.

http://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/will-your-home-be-taxed.aspx

Properties not subject to the tax
Most properties will not be subject to the Empty Homes Tax, including those:

Used as a principal residence by the owner, his/her family member or friend, or other permitted occupier for at least six months of the current year
Rented for at least six months of the current year, in periods of 30 or more consecutive days
Meeting the criteria for one of the exemptions


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 08, 2018, 09:57:58 AM
Vancouver is dealing with a huge housing shortage due to foreign ownership, and is pricing out middle and work class residents.

I feel bad for Torontonians and Vancouverites. Seems nearly impossible to have a middle class lifestyle out there. Perhaps some of them should move out east? Halifax has a comparable unemployment rate, higher median household income (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm) and home prices are cheap. My wife and I are buying a starter home next year and our budget is < $200,000.

[/quote]

I suppose the jobs in Halifax aren't as lucrative? It's not really seen as a beacon of employment in its reputation, but it is a wonderful city, and I wouldn't mind living there myself if I had to.



Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Cynthia on February 08, 2018, 10:37:03 AM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?

That's not an accurate representation of the EHT, but yeah, you absolutely should not be able to "keep a house" you're not living in for an extended period of time, at least in an ideal world. Empty homes shouldn't exist as long as people without homes do too.
It's fully rented out, which they would also tax under their proposed plan.

On the one hand, I assume you know your situation better that I do.  On the other hand, what you write here makes no sense to me.

http://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/will-your-home-be-taxed.aspx

Properties not subject to the tax
Most properties will not be subject to the Empty Homes Tax, including those:

Used as a principal residence by the owner, his/her family member or friend, or other permitted occupier for at least six months of the current year
Rented for at least six months of the current year, in periods of 30 or more consecutive days
Meeting the criteria for one of the exemptions
Ok, I clearly misunderstood the original principle. Now I support this tax.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 08, 2018, 03:32:36 PM
:o


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Vega on February 08, 2018, 05:32:45 PM
Could the housing crisis have been avoided?


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on February 08, 2018, 08:02:52 PM
Could the housing crisis have been avoided?

Not really, the government could have acted sooner and lessened the impact but not easily avoidable.  While this hurt the BC Liberals, I think their failure to get a majority was a combination of many things.  Considering how close they came, a few tweaks here and there would have put them over the top.  Mind you losing this time might be a blessing in disguise since I think had they won in 2017, they would have faced a strong route in 2021 whereas being losing at least they should at minimum form a strong opposition even if they don't win.  I think while choice of leader matters (and Wilkinson certainly was not the best choice), BC is so polarized that it only will make a difference by a few points in either direction.  What is the biggest issue is does the PR referendum pass or not.

If PR passes, I think the NDP/Greens are highly favoured to continue even if the BC Liberals do win a plurality of votes.  If PR fails, I think the BC Liberal chances are a lot better.  Their main risks are the Green vote declines and most of that goes over to the NDP thus even if they gain a few votes, NDP gains more.  The other is the BC Conservatives get their act together and win 5-10% of the popular vote which will came almost exclusively from the BC Liberals thus denying them a win even if the total right wing vote goes up.  If it goes to PR, eventually the BC Liberals will return, but the party will probably fracture between its Liberal and Conservative wings and you will likely see a BC Liberal-BC Conservative coalition, but probably not until 2025.  Never mind with the loss of the Conservative wing, the Greens would probably be more open to forming a coalition with them if they were more like the federal Liberals as I think the strong conservative element in the party is the main barrier.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: warandwar on February 08, 2018, 08:50:17 PM
Miles, that's total crap! If Vancouver had much more public housing and didn't have zoning that benefits long lines of single-family houses in very very trendy, well-speculated land, housing would not be nearly the issue it is now.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on February 09, 2018, 12:23:33 AM
Miles, that's total crap! If Vancouver had much more public housing and didn't have zoning that benefits long lines of single-family houses in very very trendy, well-speculated land, housing would not be nearly the issue it is now.

It could have been lessened but not eliminated, any big city with limited space is going to have cost issues.  See New York City, Toronto, San Francisco, Paris, Sydney, London etc which have similar issues.  On Zoning, more forsight could have been used in terms of more high rises but you can only build in vacant spaces which there isn't much of unless you want to scrap the ALR, which wouldn't go over well and would hurt on food security.  In terms of social housing, unlike the UK and many European countries, social housing is actually quite limited in Canada in general for reason I am not exactly sure why, but never really become common like it did in much of Europe.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: DC Al Fine on February 09, 2018, 06:55:13 AM
Vancouver is dealing with a huge housing shortage due to foreign ownership, and is pricing out middle and work class residents.

I feel bad for Torontonians and Vancouverites. Seems nearly impossible to have a middle class lifestyle out there. Perhaps some of them should move out east? Halifax has a comparable unemployment rate, higher median household income (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm) and home prices are cheap. My wife and I are buying a starter home next year and our budget is < $200,000.


I suppose the jobs in Halifax aren't as lucrative? It's not really seen as a beacon of employment in its reputation, but it is a wonderful city, and I wouldn't mind living there myself if I had to.


Wages are lower, but still in the ballpark (at least compared to Vancouver). It's more a combination of the industries available to work in, a lack of community for visible minorities (our visible minorities are mostly black or Arab, relatively few Punjabis or Chinese), and the fact that Vancouver is a very, very nice place to live and people just don't want to leave.

Oh and there's a stereotype that the Maritimes are entirely made up of quaint fishing villages that seems to be quite common :P


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Vega on February 09, 2018, 09:22:44 AM
Miles, that's total crap! If Vancouver had much more public housing and didn't have zoning that benefits long lines of single-family houses in very very trendy, well-speculated land, housing would not be nearly the issue it is now.

It could have been lessened but not eliminated, any big city with limited space is going to have cost issues.  See New York City, Toronto, San Francisco, Paris, Sydney, London etc which have similar issues.  On Zoning, more forsight could have been used in terms of more high rises but you can only build in vacant spaces which there isn't much of unless you want to scrap the ALR, which wouldn't go over well and would hurt on food security.  In terms of social housing, unlike the UK and many European countries, social housing is actually quite limited in Canada in general for reason I am not exactly sure why, but never really become common like it did in much of Europe.

Vancouver has less than 1 million people, so it seems strange that it is such an issue. I understand what you're saying, though.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on February 09, 2018, 02:06:29 PM
Miles, that's total crap! If Vancouver had much more public housing and didn't have zoning that benefits long lines of single-family houses in very very trendy, well-speculated land, housing would not be nearly the issue it is now.

It could have been lessened but not eliminated, any big city with limited space is going to have cost issues.  See New York City, Toronto, San Francisco, Paris, Sydney, London etc which have similar issues.  On Zoning, more forsight could have been used in terms of more high rises but you can only build in vacant spaces which there isn't much of unless you want to scrap the ALR, which wouldn't go over well and would hurt on food security.  In terms of social housing, unlike the UK and many European countries, social housing is actually quite limited in Canada in general for reason I am not exactly sure why, but never really become common like it did in much of Europe.

Vancouver has less than 1 million people, so it seems strange that it is such an issue. I understand what you're saying, though.

Greater Vancouver has 2 million people.  Also it is the most beautiful city in Canada, while asides from Victoria only other city where temperatures are generally above freezing in the winter.  To make matters worse it is geographically limited on how far it can expand outwards.  Ocean to the West, mountains to the north, US border to the south so only eastward but because that is some of the best farmland in BC and food security is desired much of the Fraser Valley is part of the ALR thus off limits to development.  So while not as big as most expensive cities, it cannot expand as far and also the climate.  Another barrier is height restrictions on skyscrapers.  Since Vancouver is known for its beautiful mountains, building high rises is heavily restricted to certain areas so the focus would have to be on more multi unit low rises.  Perhaps also out in the valley they could open it up for more high rises (Richmond is off limits due to proximity to airport).  Also better rapid transit could help as then people could move further eastward out into the suburbs.  If you go out to Langley, prices while still very high, are not quite as ridiculous but due to long commutes no one wants to live that far but if you had a good rapid transit system like the Go Train in Ontario I think more people would move further afield than do now.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Vega on February 09, 2018, 04:51:59 PM
Miles, that's total crap! If Vancouver had much more public housing and didn't have zoning that benefits long lines of single-family houses in very very trendy, well-speculated land, housing would not be nearly the issue it is now.

It could have been lessened but not eliminated, any big city with limited space is going to have cost issues.  See New York City, Toronto, San Francisco, Paris, Sydney, London etc which have similar issues.  On Zoning, more forsight could have been used in terms of more high rises but you can only build in vacant spaces which there isn't much of unless you want to scrap the ALR, which wouldn't go over well and would hurt on food security.  In terms of social housing, unlike the UK and many European countries, social housing is actually quite limited in Canada in general for reason I am not exactly sure why, but never really become common like it did in much of Europe.

Vancouver has less than 1 million people, so it seems strange that it is such an issue. I understand what you're saying, though.

Greater Vancouver has 2 million people.  Also it is the most beautiful city in Canada, while asides from Victoria only other city where temperatures are generally above freezing in the winter.  To make matters worse it is geographically limited on how far it can expand outwards.  Ocean to the West, mountains to the north, US border to the south so only eastward but because that is some of the best farmland in BC and food security is desired much of the Fraser Valley is part of the ALR thus off limits to development.  So while not as big as most expensive cities, it cannot expand as far and also the climate.  Another barrier is height restrictions on skyscrapers.  Since Vancouver is known for its beautiful mountains, building high rises is heavily restricted to certain areas so the focus would have to be on more multi unit low rises.  Perhaps also out in the valley they could open it up for more high rises (Richmond is off limits due to proximity to airport).  Also better rapid transit could help as then people could move further eastward out into the suburbs.  If you go out to Langley, prices while still very high, are not quite as ridiculous but due to long commutes no one wants to live that far but if you had a good rapid transit system like the Go Train in Ontario I think more people would move further afield than do now.

Interesting - thanks for that information. I imagine in another reality being able to expand more to the South would be a big help.

Do you think the housing situation will have a big impact on population growth in the future, or a lack of it?


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: mileslunn on February 09, 2018, 05:15:24 PM
Miles, that's total crap! If Vancouver had much more public housing and didn't have zoning that benefits long lines of single-family houses in very very trendy, well-speculated land, housing would not be nearly the issue it is now.

It could have been lessened but not eliminated, any big city with limited space is going to have cost issues.  See New York City, Toronto, San Francisco, Paris, Sydney, London etc which have similar issues.  On Zoning, more forsight could have been used in terms of more high rises but you can only build in vacant spaces which there isn't much of unless you want to scrap the ALR, which wouldn't go over well and would hurt on food security.  In terms of social housing, unlike the UK and many European countries, social housing is actually quite limited in Canada in general for reason I am not exactly sure why, but never really become common like it did in much of Europe.

Vancouver has less than 1 million people, so it seems strange that it is such an issue. I understand what you're saying, though.

Greater Vancouver has 2 million people.  Also it is the most beautiful city in Canada, while asides from Victoria only other city where temperatures are generally above freezing in the winter.  To make matters worse it is geographically limited on how far it can expand outwards.  Ocean to the West, mountains to the north, US border to the south so only eastward but because that is some of the best farmland in BC and food security is desired much of the Fraser Valley is part of the ALR thus off limits to development.  So while not as big as most expensive cities, it cannot expand as far and also the climate.  Another barrier is height restrictions on skyscrapers.  Since Vancouver is known for its beautiful mountains, building high rises is heavily restricted to certain areas so the focus would have to be on more multi unit low rises.  Perhaps also out in the valley they could open it up for more high rises (Richmond is off limits due to proximity to airport).  Also better rapid transit could help as then people could move further eastward out into the suburbs.  If you go out to Langley, prices while still very high, are not quite as ridiculous but due to long commutes no one wants to live that far but if you had a good rapid transit system like the Go Train in Ontario I think more people would move further afield than do now.

Interesting - thanks for that information. I imagine in another reality being able to expand more to the South would be a big help.

Do you think the housing situation will have a big impact on population growth in the future, or a lack of it?

Yes in many ways housing prices are a sign of supply and demand so when more people want to live somewhere than it can accommodate prices will rise.  The problem is for those born and raised in Vancouver it might force many of them out so will be interesting to see what happens.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on February 11, 2018, 06:15:29 PM
I'm probably going to vote libertarian in the next provincial

I hate all of them, Wilkinson, Horgan, or Weaver

nihilist!

I'm just really not fond of the empty house tax thing, and for that reason it's at least 95% likely I vote Liberal or not vote at all

Like I can't keep a house that I owned for 10 years just because I moved abroad for work?

Edit: it's not actually empty (fully rented out except two rooms and my family live there around 3 months of the year), but from my understanding of the proposed plan I would still be taxed at 2%. I'm not opposed to raising taxes; for example, if BC gov't increase my property taxes by 100% and use that money to fund affordable housing, I have zero problem with it; I am COMPLETELY not opposed to taxing vacant propertiesbut 2% estimated value tax on houses that are fully rented out seems ridiculous IMO.

All my rents are below market and I have never raised rent for the past 5 years.

Oh gosh, poor you! You OWN a HOUSE in BRITISH COLUMBIA and get ADDITIONAL INCOME from that house, the value of which likely appreciates at a RIDICULOUS rate.

The tax won't actually apply to you, but jeeze. Wouldn't be terrible if it did. Some us live in one room for $1300 a month.


Title: Re: Feb. 3rd 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread
Post by: Lotuslander on February 12, 2018, 03:27:09 AM
Interesting discussion about BC housing market - more particularly Metro Vancouver housing market.

Carl Sagan's famous quip relevant here: "You have to know the past to understand the present.”

In that vein, my take as my close/extended family has been involved in Metro Vancouver residential development since 1960's.

A relevant starting point.

1. Back in 1973 when the Barrett BC NDP gov't introduced the ALR, literally overnight SFD lot prices/undeveloped land parcels literally doubled overnight in value in Metro Vancouver. Many of my family members became instant millionaires overnight as a result.

2. As a result of ALR introduction back in 1973, Metro Vancouver also literally overnight became known as the highest priced housing market in Canada. "Law of unintended consequences". BTW, the ALR immediately reduced the future supply of potential residential lands, which is a major component cost of housing.

3. ALR included Class 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, & 7 farm lands. The latter portion of ALR class lands consisted basically horse hobby farms and they remain extent to this day in much of Langley (Metro Vancouver), for example. Personally I don't believe that's in public interest but BC is full of ideologues that would call my position blasphemy.

4. Now let's look at BC housing starts (mostly in Metro Van). Back in 1973, BC had ~37,000 housing starts. Later on in 1980, ~40,000 housing starts. Put that into context in terms of population between then and now. Based upon population, today BC would require between 67,000 - 73,000 housing starts in order to keep equilibrium.

5. However, over past 5 years, BC has only had between 27,000 - 33,000 housing starts. Major relative decline re: population increase. Only this year are housing starts ~40,000. Still far short based upon historical averages re: population.

6. Also important to note that absolute numbers of SFDs has declined in Metro Vancouver over past decade. Obviously impacts *demand* for SFDs in terms of price increases thereto. Have always said, if ya own a SFD in Metro Vancouver, ya own a proverbial "gold mine".

7. Important to note as well that, unlike 1970's/1980's, household size has shrunk - many single households putting further strain on demand for housing.

8. As for purported offshore money sharply increasing housing values? Don't buy it and land title declarations confirm same. In that vein, back circa 1987, major cash-inflow into Metro Vancouver real estate from Hong Kong occurred pending 1997 China take-over of Hong Kong. Richmond & Vancouver West-side were major focus of residential purchases by this off-shore demographic.

9. That Hong Kong money changed their residential price structures & demographics of Vancouver westside & Richmond forever - yet was not a political issue back then.

10. Back in the late 1980's and into the 1990's Hong Kong money was also purchasing almost every office, retail, industrial, & apartment block property available. Quite unreal compared to current foreign real estate purchases in those categories.

11. Now rental housing - back in the 1970's & 1980's fed gov't had MURB (multi-unit residential building) program. Most of the last wave of apartment rental buildings constructed in Metro Vanouver are from that era. MURB was basically a tax shelter inducing private capital to construct apt. buildings. Quite effective program INHO.

12. Today not much rental housing constructed at all. Most rentals now either SFD basement suites or condo rentals. Ergo the 1% vacancy rates.

13. Another key reason behind low housing starts v. 1970's to 1990's in BC. Today, takes well over one year just to receive a building permit to replace an old SFD in Vancouver city proper with another. Hell, until about 1990's an entire 300-lot SFD residential subdivision in Metro Vancouver would have had underground services/roads completed in that time frame.

14. Moreover, SFD builders were all "mom & pops" back then. Not today. Residential housing developers have been whittled down considerably due to land purchase costs, financing, and soft & hard costs. Ergo results in fewer developers with longer time frames.

15. Now back to politics. BC NDP gave impression that they would make "housing more affordable" in Metro Vancouver. Major reason why they won extra seats in Metro Vancouver during 2017 election. Frankly, feel sorry for poor saps/voters that bought into that "plank".

16. Ever since the GreeNDP gov't was formed back in July, 2017, one can see many on social media, who voted BC NDP, complaining about why the BC NDP "affordable housing" platform hasn't been implemented. Sigh. It was just rhetoric in order to gain votes. Worked quite frankly.

17. BC NDP in response has stated "Wait for our February budget". Quite obvious that nothing material will come out of same - only if one actually understands housing market. Gonna say this - NDP voter expectations on this file will become majorly deflated. Ergo, another political problem ensues. One can expect that old Wendy's TV commercial come into play then:

()


Only 3 options today to cause Metro Vancouver housing costs to become more "affordable":

A. Interest rates hitting 20%, akin to 1981, which caused housing prices to collapse in 1982 along with mini economic depression & skyrocketing unemployment rates;

B. Removal of Class 4, 5, 6, and 7 ALR lands in Metro Vancouver (mostly horse hobby farms today), which will result in decrease in overall land values throughout Metro Vancouver (almost akin to doubling of Metro Vancouver land prices doubling after ALR introduction back in 1973);

C. Major negative net out-migration of Metro Vancouver population akin to late 1990's combined with loss of consumer confidence. Back in late 1990's BC consumer confidence levels were almost lowest in history. To wit, back then many bank foreclosures occurred on housing & rarely anyone was bidding upon same. For example, back in 2000, I purchased a 1-bedroom, 10-year old,  concrete construction condo for a measly $30,000 (!!) at BCSC Court-Ordered sale. Said unit also had a tenant paying $800/month in rent. In hindsight... one helleva bargain. Those days are over.

My 2 cents.