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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Gass3268 on August 08, 2017, 08:58:44 am



Title: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: Gass3268 on August 08, 2017, 08:58:44 am
42% Northam
37% Gillespie
6% Hyra
13% Undecided

43% Fairfax
38% Vogel

45% Herring
39% Adams

What party they would rather see in control of the Virginia General Assembly?

48% Democrats
41% Republicans

Source (http://www.wilder.vcu.edu/news-and-events/news-articles/northam-other-virginia-democrats-hold-leads-in-all-three-upcoming-statewide-ele.html)


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: Gass3268 on August 08, 2017, 09:04:01 am
Don't see how Gillespie wins this this regional breakdown.

Quote
In the gubernatorial race, Northam has a sizeable lead in Northern Virginia (54 percent to 25 percent). Gillespie leads in the west (47 percent to 21 percent). Voters are split in the northwest, with 38 percent supporting Gillespie and 35 percent supporting Northam, and in Tidewater, with 39 percent supporting Northam and 35 percent supporting Gillespie. (See map below for a visual definition of the regions mentioned.)


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: heatcharger on August 08, 2017, 09:40:29 am
Yeah this sounds about right, and this is a LV poll too. That Monmouth poll had Northam only up 13 in NOVA, which seeemd like an outlier to me. It's also good to see that Fairfax isn't lagging behind Northam at all, but that isn't all that surprising considering they're incredibly similar.


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: Devils30 on August 08, 2017, 10:24:56 am
a 5 point win here won't be terribly promising for Dems in 2018.


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: heatcharger on August 08, 2017, 10:31:53 am
a 5 point win here won't be terribly promising for Dems in 2018.

Was John Bel Edwards 13 point victory a sign that the GOP was in trouble in 2016? Not evidently so. Gubernatorial races are less susceptible to partisanship than federal ones, so drawing conclusions based on one for the other isn't very sound.


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: Heisenberg on August 08, 2017, 10:41:38 am
a 5 point win here won't be terribly promising for Dems in 2018.

Was John Bel Edwards 13 point victory a sign that the GOP was in trouble in 2016? Not evidently so. Gubernatorial races are less susceptible to partisanship than federal ones, so drawing conclusions based on one for the other isn't very sound.
Part of JBE's strong victory was that Vitter was a horrible candidate, and that prostitution scandal destroyed him. But I agree, gubernatorial elections are less susceptible to partisanship, but also far more likely to be affected by state-level issues, too.


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: Gass3268 on August 08, 2017, 01:40:31 pm
a 5 point win here won't be terribly promising for Dems in 2018.

The most exciting number for me is Democrats leading the Virginia General Assembly poll by 7. They wouldn't flip the chamber with that, but so many NoVA/Richmond seats would flip.


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: The Saint on August 08, 2017, 01:52:11 pm
This is upsetting. Gillespie still has time, and I don't fully trust VA polls, so we'll see what happens


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: Silurian on August 08, 2017, 01:53:20 pm
a 5 point win here won't be terribly promising for Dems in 2018.

The most exciting number for me is Democrats leading the Virginia General Assembly poll by 7. They wouldn't flip the chamber with that, but so many NoVA/Richmond seats would flip.

Do you happen to know how what the popular vote margins were for the 2013 and 2015 House of Delegates elections was? I'm curious how much Democrats lost or won that by.


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: Gass3268 on August 08, 2017, 01:58:34 pm
a 5 point win here won't be terribly promising for Dems in 2018.

The most exciting number for me is Democrats leading the Virginia General Assembly poll by 7. They wouldn't flip the chamber with that, but so many NoVA/Richmond seats would flip.

Do you happen to know how what the popular vote margins were for the 2013 and 2015 House of Delegates elections was? I'm curious how much Democrats lost or won that by.

I don't have the exact number. Also it would be difficult to compare because so many seats were uncontested last year, while this year is going to have a modern record for contested races.


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on August 08, 2017, 02:11:49 pm
a 5 point win here won't be terribly promising for Dems in 2018.

The most exciting number for me is Democrats leading the Virginia General Assembly poll by 7. They wouldn't flip the chamber with that, but so many NoVA/Richmond seats would flip.

Do you happen to know how what the popular vote margins were for the 2013 and 2015 House of Delegates elections was? I'm curious how much Democrats lost or won that by.

I don't have the exact number. Also it would be difficult to compare because so many seats were uncontested last year, while this year is going to have a modern record for contested races.
Here's the 2015 HoD numbers (http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=2338)
Republicans - 69%
Democrats - 30%

I find this a little hard to believe, but who knows. I couldn't find the numbers for 2013 though.


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: Arch on August 08, 2017, 02:12:02 pm
This is upsetting. Gillespie still has time, and I don't fully trust VA polls, so we'll see what happens

Don't have enough with nearly 40 governors? Chill


Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: Silurian on August 08, 2017, 02:36:24 pm
Here's the 2015 HoD numbers (http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=2338)
Republicans - 69%
Democrats - 30%

I find this a little hard to believe, but who knows. I couldn't find the numbers for 2013 though.

I mean I suppose it is possible because as Gass3268 was saying, Democrats have left so many seats uncontested for multiple cycles now. That would mean uncontested GOP seats rack up tons of votes all across the state. Still, though, that number is pretty absurd. I doubt it would be anything close to that if Democrats contested almost every seat like they are this year.

Now I'm even more interested in seeing how the battle for the HoD plays out :P



Title: Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5
Post by: Young Conservative on August 08, 2017, 04:31:30 pm
a 5 point win here won't be terribly promising for Dems in 2018.

Was John Bel Edwards 13 point victory a sign that the GOP was in trouble in 2016? Not evidently so. Gubernatorial races are less susceptible to partisanship than federal ones, so drawing conclusions based on one for the other isn't very sound.
Northam is not running against a man caught with prostitutes