Talk Elections

http://www.azhighground.com/blog/post/us-senator-jeff-flake-in-double-electoral-jeopardy-twelve-months-away-from-primary-election

King Flake is dead, Long live Queen Ward Sinema.

Those Ward-Sinema numbers are absurd. Whether we pick Sinema or Stanton in the end, Ward is going to be absolutely crucified if she wins the primary.

I do think it's credible to emphasize flakes horrible numbers as another poll comes out bringing this to our attention. But I question many things. Particularly the sinema 51% in her district is much higher in reality given her cross over appeal and running far ahead of Clinton in her district.

Lol Chemtrail Kelli

I expect Flake's numbers will improve somewhat, but I'll definitely be moving this race to Toss-Up if Ward beats Flake.

Arizona is a prime Democratic pickup, as I had been saying all along. It is currently a tossup, but it is a great opportunity for the Democrats. The idea Flake was ever solid for re-election was simply absurd.

Great poll!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fWyzwo1xg0

It's funny how people think Sinema is a good candidate who will defeat Ward. She has tons of baggage and a radical history.

Ward moots both of those points just by existing. If Sinema has baggage and a radical past, Ward is a goddamn suitcase with a radical present.

An actual radical history is believing in chemtrails. With that said, Sinema will take this seat and probably by 4-5 points in the end.

I find Atlas Democrats far too bullish on this seat...granted it will be much closer than if Doucey, or dewitt ran (who could all beat Flake and any Dem)

So the more radical the better? By these standards, Hitler would be +35

Sinema is a moderate and a member of the blue dog coalition, as a blue dog I appreciate that.
Ward is a radical. People will choose moderate over radical in a state like this. AZ is not Texas.

Key points:

Krysten Sinema, who as we all know has somewhat of an odd past (voted against Pelosi, against gay marriage, railed against new feminism... yet also pro-Palestine, pro-taxes, and was against the War on Terror) has 55% approval ratings. It's possible Sinema avoids a costly primary (thus exposing her right wing points) but if Ward's a serious option, that's unlikely.

That means 45% of Arizona can be given information on Sinema by Republicans, including Ward (who will make no attempt to conceal Sinema's religious views). So I'll be cautious on the Ward/Sinema number.

Ward being up 14 in the primary is very dangerous territory, though, especially if Trump is relatively well liked by Arizona Republicans.

Great insight guys!

(this is not a Sanders-Clinton proxy war nonsense - I voted for Clinton - it's more of a "lol Trump ain't gonna win" and then he did reminder)

I think there's a non-zero chance that if Ward wins the primary, McCain endorses Sinema.

I love the new McCain. His whole political life is just dedicated to trolling Trump.

I've been betting on Ward beating Flake in the primary since the start of the year. Kelli Ward won a sizable portion of the Republican electorate against McCain in an election year, where a lot of people were tuned in. The field is much more in her favour in 2018, from the Republican's party's embrace of Trump to her much weaker opponent.

Essentially, yes, and why not. Given the enormity of his current situation, health-wise, I'd say McCain is well within rights and reason to end his career with a slow-burn blaze of glory against his most hated political rival.

This is giving me strong AL-SEN flashbacks. People don't like Jeff Flake/Luther Strange and that's demonstrated in the favorability polls. People, while cautious, will embrace Kelli Ward/Roy Moore. Not many are in Flake's base.

Flake and Strange have allied themselves more with McConnell in the growing rift with the President, and Republicans will pick Trump over McConnell.

There's danger brewing for the rest of the Trump administration if that pattern keeps up - with the Republican majority so dangerously thin, a dedicated Trump attack on McConnell's Senate allies could give the make-or-break vote to a lot of unfavorable folks. And remember, McConnell himself is up for re-election in 2020.

Still betting on Flake.

It's a losing bet.

Nearly everyone doubted me on Ossoff and pushed me around on it, and I always put my money on Handel, I basically predicted the right margins too. And guess who was right? So I aint budging on this one either.

I still like Mark Kelly, the astronaut and Gabrielle Giffords' husband, for this seat.  I think he would have a very good chance of beating either Republican.

S E N A T O R  S I N E M A

IT'S OVER FLAKE I HAVE THE HIGHGROUND!

YOU UNDERESTIMATE MY ABILITIES WARD!

DON'T TRY IT FLAKE

*makes moderate conservative screeches*

*defeats flake by 23 points in the primary*

That would be positively gorgeous.

I'm not sure I can stay a registered Republican if both Kelli Ward and Roy Moore win the GOP nominations :( Both are awful people and candidates.

I'm saving a seat for you at the blue dog table should you finally wake up.

This is your breaking point?

"Awful people" is the core GOP group of support now. Expect more of their candidates to win primaries.