Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: progressive85 on September 12, 2017, 09:30:54 AM



Title: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: progressive85 on September 12, 2017, 09:30:54 AM
A lot can happen in a year, so its not really possible to know what the electorate's mood will be by late October 2018, when a lot of the close races will break one way or another.

I'm in the "not sure" group.  I don't even care about the polls.  The only poll that matters are the votes that are counted on Election Day.  I think it certainly will be a big challenge for Team Blue to get those 24 seats.

If they don't, is Nancy Pelosi gone by 2020?  Do the Democrats give up on the House in 2020?  Does it motivate the party or cause it to lose hope of defeating Donald Trump?


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Brittain33 on September 12, 2017, 09:32:25 AM
Not sure, all because of gerrymandering and polarization.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Sir Mohamed on September 12, 2017, 09:44:09 AM
Honestly, I don't know. It's tough to overcome the gerrymandering that much. Democrats must win the PV by at least five points or so to be anywhere near 218 seats. That's possible, I guess. If Trump's approval rating stays at its current level, I think the GOP will narrowly hold on (225-230 seats). If he is under 33% approval permanently in the months before the election, Democrats have a decent shot to win. But I warn my fellow Democrats not just to run on a pure Anti-Trump message. We also need to make the case what we're standing for. Democrats will make net gains, that's 99% certain. So, in the worst case about 2012 levels, at best narrow control of the House. Probably maxed out at 225 seats. Gun to my head? I say GOP control with approximately 225 seats.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: smoltchanov on September 12, 2017, 09:48:14 AM
Not sure. Probably - right now rather no, then yes. But everything may still change...


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: progressive85 on September 12, 2017, 09:56:09 AM
If the Republicans have a decreased majority (around 220-225 seats), how does the change the House?  Will it make it more bipartisan because of the need to get votes from both parties to pass anything?

Does anyone think its likely for a near split (218-217) to occur?  Has that ever happened before?


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Gustaf on September 12, 2017, 10:30:20 AM
If the Republicans have a decreased majority (around 220-225 seats), how does the change the House?  Will it make it more bipartisan because of the need to get votes from both parties to pass anything?

Does anyone think its likely for a near split (218-217) to occur?  Has that ever happened before?

Democratic gains will be at the expense of moderate Republicans and in addition we might have Trumpist primary challenges happening. It will be polarized and dysfunctional as ever is my guess.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: °Leprechaun on September 12, 2017, 10:34:16 AM
no


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on September 12, 2017, 11:18:30 AM
Yes


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: _ on September 12, 2017, 11:19:40 AM
I'd say the house is Lean R atm, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Dems could take it.  I just don't see it atm.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on September 12, 2017, 11:26:25 AM
Yes, but narrowly.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 12, 2017, 11:45:43 AM

Same here.  Based on the way things look now, I'd guess they'll pick up about 35 seats (+/-5).


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: McGovernForPrez on September 12, 2017, 11:51:28 AM
There a lot of indicators right now that we'll take the house back. The generic ballot poll is about 9 or 10 points right now. Democrats are recruiting string candidates even in districts they have no real chance of contesting. Congressional Dems are retiring en mass. Things can change by then but I don't expect it to.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Orser67 on September 12, 2017, 01:07:56 PM
With the Republican retirements (that have already happened and will probably continue to happen), good Democratic recruits, and an unpopular Republican president, I think Democrats are slightly favored to retake the House.

I think a net pick-up of 10 seats is probably the floor for Democrats. Such a loss of seats would leave House Republicans in a very tough position given the divisions in their caucus.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: PoliticalShelter on September 12, 2017, 01:26:21 PM
If the Republicans have a decreased majority (around 220-225 seats), how does the change the House?  Will it make it more bipartisan because of the need to get votes from both parties to pass anything?

Does anyone think its likely for a near split (218-217) to occur?  Has that ever happened before?
I thinks in that scenario you would probably see the freedom caucus force out of Ryan as speaker for his perceived failures. In that case one big possibility is that I can see whatever remaining moderate republicans in the house making a deal with the democrats to govern in a coalition.

I believe this is how the Texas house of representatives is run and it would not surprise me if this is what we will end up with this at some point in the future.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: tallguy23 on September 12, 2017, 02:32:18 PM
As of now....yes. Trump is way too unpopular.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on September 12, 2017, 02:38:05 PM
Not sure. The environment certainly favors it, but the map doesn't - Dems have a much, much tougher route to the majority than the Reps did in 2010.

That being said, the map is opening up - Reichert, Dent and Trott are probably just the beginning.

If you asked me 3 months ago I would've said almost definitely not. Now... I'm not sure.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Sir Mohamed on September 13, 2017, 08:58:31 AM

Does anyone think its likely for a near split (218-217) to occur?  Has that ever happened before?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1930


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 13, 2017, 09:45:51 AM

Does anyone think its likely for a near split (218-217) to occur?  Has that ever happened before?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1930

Interesting article.  I was struck by this:

Quote
Although the Republicans retained a narrow majority after the polls closed, they lost a number of special elections following the deaths of 19 representatives and representatives-elect prior to the reconvening of Congress

Doesn't that seem like a lot of deaths between the election and the new Congress?  Is that unprecedented?


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Ebsy on September 13, 2017, 09:51:53 AM

Does anyone think its likely for a near split (218-217) to occur?  Has that ever happened before?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1930

Interesting article.  I was struck by this:

Quote
Although the Republicans retained a narrow majority after the polls closed, they lost a number of special elections following the deaths of 19 representatives and representatives-elect prior to the reconvening of Congress

Doesn't that seem like a lot of deaths between the election and the new Congress?  Is that unprecedented?

Life expectancy/mortality rate was a lot lower/higher back then.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Del Tachi on September 13, 2017, 10:25:33 AM
Lean no.  I think they'll make gains, but will come up frustratingly short in some crucial races. 


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Figueira on September 13, 2017, 12:54:37 PM
Voted "I don't know."

It's within reach. I'd say out of the 23 Clinton/R seats, there are 14 or so that should be easy-ish pickups for Democrats. Not guaranteed, but they could easily fall. After that we need 10 more. Out of all the vaguely Lean R seats, from ME-02 to IL-06 to KY-06 to MI-11 to KS-02 to WA-03, I'd say at least 10 of them flipping is not that unlikely.

But Democrats can easily mess things up, so who knows.



Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Vosem on September 13, 2017, 01:22:08 PM
Yes. My general suspicion is that most seats at R+4 or less will, excepting seats with strong incumbents and seats with strong pro-Trump trends, fall under current presidential approval/generic ballot conditions; you can add a couple that are more Republican but have very white liberal enclaves (the specific seats I'm thinking of are those of Rodney Davis, Tom Reed, and Tom Garrett, all of whom under current conditions I might even consider disfavored). Should add up to around 30 seats flipping or so, controlling for some local factors like the California GOP being especially screwed by D-v.-D races upballot while Pennsylvania GOP representatives tend to be very entrenched even in unfavorable seats.

Voted "I don't know."

It's within reach. I'd say out of the 23 Clinton/R seats, there are 14 or so that should be easy-ish pickups for Democrats. Not guaranteed, but they could easily fall. After that we need 10 more. Out of all the vaguely Lean R seats, from ME-02 to IL-06 to KY-06 to MI-11 to KS-02 to WA-03, I'd say at least 10 of them flipping is not that unlikely.

But Democrats can easily mess things up, so who knows.

Except MI-11, which was probably a Top Ten (and definitely Top Fifteen) pickup opportunity even before Trott's retirement, I would say all of those seats flip after Democrats have already taken the House, especially KY-6 and WA-3 which are both probably past seat 40.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Figueira on September 13, 2017, 01:33:38 PM
Yes. My general suspicion is that most seats at R+4 or less will, excepting seats with strong incumbents and seats with strong pro-Trump trends, fall under current presidential approval/generic ballot conditions; you can add a couple that are more Republican but have very white liberal enclaves (the specific seats I'm thinking of are those of Rodney Davis, Tom Reed, and Tom Garrett, all of whom under current conditions I might even consider disfavored). Should add up to around 30 seats flipping or so, controlling for some local factors like the California GOP being especially screwed by D-v.-D races upballot while Pennsylvania GOP representatives tend to be very entrenched even in unfavorable seats.

Voted "I don't know."

It's within reach. I'd say out of the 23 Clinton/R seats, there are 14 or so that should be easy-ish pickups for Democrats. Not guaranteed, but they could easily fall. After that we need 10 more. Out of all the vaguely Lean R seats, from ME-02 to IL-06 to KY-06 to MI-11 to KS-02 to WA-03, I'd say at least 10 of them flipping is not that unlikely.

But Democrats can easily mess things up, so who knows.

Except MI-11, which was probably a Top Ten (and definitely Top Fifteen) pickup opportunity even before Trott's retirement, I would say all of those seats flip after Democrats have already taken the House, especially KY-6 and WA-3 which are both probably past seat 40.

I wasn't saying those seats are actually in the top 24, just that they're examples of seats in the 50 or so seat pool that Dems only need 10 of to win.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: windjammer on September 13, 2017, 02:19:20 PM
It's less and less unlikely with all these retirements.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: McGovernForPrez on September 13, 2017, 02:52:18 PM
It's less and less unlikely with all these retirements.
Don't you mean more and more likely? These retirements help the Democrats.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 13, 2017, 05:31:42 PM
It's less and less unlikely with all these retirements.
Don't you mean more and more likely? These retirements help the Democrats.

Aren't "less and less unlikely" and "more and more likely" the same thing?


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Frodo on September 13, 2017, 10:42:23 PM
I'm cautiously optimistic -but if we wind up on January 3, 2019 with both the House and Senate evenly divided with only a single seat separating one party from the majority in either chamber (in the Senate's case, Vice-President Mike Pence will be the saving grace of the Republican majority there), I wouldn't be shocked.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 13, 2017, 10:44:32 PM
I continue to be doubtful after the GA-6 fail. But these retirements certainly help dems.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Xing on September 13, 2017, 11:04:53 PM
I think it'll be fairly close either way. My guess right now is that they come up a bit short, but I could see the House going Democratic if we see more Republican retirements.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 14, 2017, 01:48:56 AM
So, looking at the last house speaker floor vote, there were 4 democrats that did not vote Pelosi. Now, Sinema is out of the picture as she is running for Senate, and Kathleen Rice and Ron Kind would follow the party line if their vote mattered. But what about Jim Cooper? He has always hated the idea of voting Pelosi for speaker, even occasionally voting for Colin Powell to prove his point. If the house is 218-217 D, and Jim Cooper votes for someone else for speaker, and all republicans vote their party line, then the speaker vote is 217-217-1, which sends us into an unpredictable second ballot situation. So if the democrats want this house majority, they better go for at least 25 seats, not settle for 24.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Figueira on September 14, 2017, 09:06:38 AM
So, looking at the last house speaker floor vote, there were 4 democrats that did not vote Pelosi. Now, Sinema is out of the picture as she is running for Senate, and Kathleen Rice and Ron Kind would follow the party line if their vote mattered. But what about Jim Cooper? He has always hated the idea of voting Pelosi for speaker, even occasionally voting for Colin Powell to prove his point. If the house is 218-217 D, and Jim Cooper votes for someone else for speaker, and all republicans vote their party line, then the speaker vote is 217-217-1, which sends us into an unpredictable second ballot situation. So if the democrats want this house majority, they better go for at least 25 seats, not settle for 24.

I can't see Jim Cooper sabotaging Democrats' House majority just because he has an axe to grind. Just because he hates Pelosi doesn't mean he'd rather have Ryan as speaker. But if top Dems are really worried about that, they should fund a primary challenge.

Also Sinema is not officially running for Senate yet.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: ShadowRocket on September 15, 2017, 04:52:35 PM
I'm not sure. Given Trump's current popularity and historical precedence, I think they are favored. But I can't shake the feeling that gerrymandering and polarization will ultimately save the GOP here. I'm guessing we'll end up with a more or less evenly divided House with it being a coin flip as to whether it is a narrow GOP or Dem majority.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 15, 2017, 06:00:33 PM


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: varesurgent on September 15, 2017, 07:20:42 PM
As of right now, yes, but a lot can change in 14 months.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Mr.Phips on September 20, 2017, 04:02:22 PM
Given the gerrymandering, even if Dems win all of the seats I see as most vulnerable for GOP, I can only get Dems to around 213-214.  Dems badly need to win/hold governorships in MI/OH/PA and force fair maps in those states.  That would almost immediately give Dems another 5 or 6 seats.


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Del Tachi on September 20, 2017, 04:05:27 PM
What is the likelihood that, as in 2012, Democratic House candidates win the national popular vote, but fail to win a majority of the seats?

I'd say that has an over 50% chance of happening


Title: Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Post by: Orser67 on September 20, 2017, 05:04:45 PM
What is the likelihood that, as in 2012, Democratic House candidates win the national popular vote, but fail to win a majority of the seats?

I'd say there's about a 54% chance that Dems win the popular vote and the House, a 45% chance that Democrats win the popular vote but not the House, and a 1% chance that Republicans win the popular vote and the House.

I can't see Jim Cooper sabotaging Democrats' House majority just because he has an axe to grind.

I don't think Cooper et. al would vote for a Republican, but they could definitely unseat Pelosi as the Democratic leader and/or force her to make policy promises. A similar situation happened in 1923 with progressive Republicans and Speaker Fredrick Gillett.