Title: 2017-2018 Attorneys General Predictions
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on September 12, 2017, 05:36:43 PM
For anyone who cares, here's what I think:
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AL - Steve Marshall is running for a full term, but things could get interesting in the primary since he was appointed by Bentley. Safe R
AZ - Mark Brnovich is running for reelection. January Contreras seems to be a credible candidate though, and Brnovich only narrowly won in 2014. Leans R
AR - Leslie Rutledge is running for reelection. Nothing interesting here. Safe R
CA - Whether Becerra runs for reelection or not, Safe D
CO - Coffman is running for governor, so the race looks a little easier for Democrats, but still Tossup
CT - An open seat. This could be an opening for the GOP, but anti-GOP backlash and the Dem-leaning nature of CT makes me think Dems are favored to hold it Leans D
DE - Matt Denn is not running for reelection. While it might look like an easy D hold, it could end up being a dark horse for Republicans. Likely D
FL - An open seat that will be hotly contested. Tossup
GA - This is a pseudo-open seat, so it could potentially be competitive. Likely R
ID - Moving on. Safe R
IL - This is now an open seat. Dems are favored to hold it, but the GOP has an interesting candidate in Erika Harold Likely D
IA - Tom Miller is running for reelection, and should be in fairly good shape, despite the hard-GOP turn of IA in 2016 Likely D
KS - This one looks pretty safe. Derek Schmidt is from the moderate wing of the KS GOP, so he can distance himself from Brownback Safe R
MD - Frosh easily won in 2014 even as Hogan was winning. Safe D
MA - Safe D
MI - An open seat. Tossup
MN - Swanson is running for reelection now, so she should be in pretty good shape to hold it. Likely D
NE - Safe R
NV - See Colorado. Ds have a decent bench here. Tossup
NM - Balderas isn't going anywhere. Safe D
NY - Safe D
ND - Safe R
OH - DeWine is term-limited and both sides appear to have strong candidates. Tossup
OK - Safe R
RI - Safe D
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TX - Ken Paxton is under federal indictment, and Democrats have a credible candidate in trial lawyer Justin Nelson, but it's a tough race for a Democrat. Likely R
WI - Again, this will probably depend on how the Governor's race turns out. Schimel is running for reelection, and Josh Kaul, a former federal prosecutor, has declared for the D nomination, and seems like a serious candidate. Tossup
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AL - Steve Marshall is running for a full term, but things could get interesting in the primary since he was appointed by Bentley. Safe R
AZ - Mark Brnovich is running for reelection. January Contreras seems to be a credible candidate though, and Brnovich only narrowly won in 2014. Leans R
AR - Leslie Rutledge is running for reelection. Nothing interesting here. Safe R
CA - Whether Becerra runs for reelection or not, Safe D
CO - Coffman is running for governor, so the race looks a little easier for Democrats, but still Tossup
CT - An open seat. This could be an opening for the GOP, but anti-GOP backlash and the Dem-leaning nature of CT makes me think Dems are favored to hold it Leans D
DE - Matt Denn is not running for reelection. While it might look like an easy D hold, it could end up being a dark horse for Republicans. Likely D
FL - An open seat that will be hotly contested. Tossup
GA - This is a pseudo-open seat, so it could potentially be competitive. Likely R
ID - Moving on. Safe R
IL - This is now an open seat. Dems are favored to hold it, but the GOP has an interesting candidate in Erika Harold Likely D
IA - Tom Miller is running for reelection, and should be in fairly good shape, despite the hard-GOP turn of IA in 2016 Likely D
KS - This one looks pretty safe. Derek Schmidt is from the moderate wing of the KS GOP, so he can distance himself from Brownback Safe R
MD - Frosh easily won in 2014 even as Hogan was winning. Safe D
MA - Safe D
MI - An open seat. Tossup
MN - Swanson is running for reelection now, so she should be in pretty good shape to hold it. Likely D
NE - Safe R
NV - See Colorado. Ds have a decent bench here. Tossup
NM - Balderas isn't going anywhere. Safe D
NY - Safe D
ND - Safe R
OH - DeWine is term-limited and both sides appear to have strong candidates. Tossup
OK - Safe R
RI - Safe D
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TX - Ken Paxton is under federal indictment, and Democrats have a credible candidate in trial lawyer Justin Nelson, but it's a tough race for a Democrat. Likely R
WI - Again, this will probably depend on how the Governor's race turns out. Schimel is running for reelection, and Josh Kaul, a former federal prosecutor, has declared for the D nomination, and seems like a serious candidate. Tossup