Talk Elections

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-16/japan-s-leader-abe-may-call-snap-general-election-nhk-reports

NHK reports that Abe will most likely call a snap election for Oct 2017.  If NHK reports it then most likely this is 99.99% true.

若狭 勝 (Wakasa Masaru), the pro-Koike LDP rebel, that recently formed 日本ファーストの会 (Japan First Party) (JFP) recently as the national branch of the Koike's Tokyo regional TPFA party, has said if an election is called it would speed up the creation of a new Japanese national political party.  

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Wakasa seems to imply that he might merge his party perhaps with various DP rebel parties and will try to run a large number of candidates in the upcoming elections.  This is bad news for LDP in Tokyo but good news for LDP pretty much everywhere else.  

摂津市 (Settsu City) of Osaka Prefecture had its City council elections today.  Results compared to 2013 are

         Contested    Win    Vote Share
ORA        7             5          28.18%  (Osaka branch of JRP)
KP           5            5          27.37%
LDP         4             3         13.78%
DP          2             2           9.34%
JCP         4             4          16.44%
CFA         4             0           3.10%   (this is Koike Party in Osaka)
Ind          1            0           1.79%

whereas in 2013 it was

         Contested    Win    Vote Share
ORA        6             5          25.88%  (Osaka branch of JRP)
YP           1             0           1.08%
KP           5            5          24.86%
LDP         5             4         17.06%
DPJ         3             2          11.64%
JCP         5             5          15.96%
NNHK      2            0            1.82%  (Anti-NHK party, fringe Right wing party obsessed with NHK)
Ind         2             0           1.70%

ORA and KP gets a swing from 2013 while LDP and DP continue to decline.

In Osaka local politics it is now pretty much ORA-KP vs LDP-DP-JCP where LDP, DP and JCP which are national rivals gang up on ORA and all things equal gets beaten by ORA.  Abe deep down I suspect would back ORA over LDP as the Osaka branch of LDP is mostly anti-Abe.

LDP and JCP on the same side? 😂 Only in Japan!

Although that said, why are KP with ORA? Is it because they want to ally with whoever might is most likely to be in charge?

Pretty much.  That is how KP operates.  That is the real basis of the TPFA-KP alliance in Tokyo.  Once it was clear ORA was going to displace LDP as the dominate party in Osaka KP joined up with ORA which in turn consolidated the ORA position in Osaka local politics.

Abe said that he will decide on the dissolution of the parliament on Sept. 28 to pave way for an election on Oct. 22 after his trip to the USA.  At this stage it is a certainly that he will do so.  To let talks about this to go so far without doing it would make it untenable.  It delaying the announcements until his trip to the UN has to do with crafting an argument for the snap election in terms of the threat from DPRK and not make it about how it helps Abe to secure a third term as LDP President.

By the way, when will the pro-military constitutional referendum likely be?

Constitutional change proposal not even out of LDP conference yet.  This is early days.  In fact Abe might dissolve the Lower House and campaign on this issue: "DPRK military threat means that we must revise the Constitution to have a real military.  Please give LDP-KP 2/3 majority so we can get this Constitutional revision law passed and hand it over to you, the voter, to vote on.  Oh. P.S. LDP MPs: vote Abe for LDP President Sept 2018."

I always liked this chart I made last year on PR vote share for different blocs (LDP+ is LDP and KP, Third Pole are non-LDP/anti-LDP Right (including Far Right), Center-Left are DP/DPJ, SDP, PLP/LP etc etc, and JCP is JCP.


Now, if we go with political analyst 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) projection from a couple of days ago


And used the implied PR vote share I calculated you get this following chart if you assumes HRP gets 0.5%

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       44.00              22.50             20.50            12.50

Which puts the Third Pole and Center-Left back to around 2013 levels but with LDP+ weaker and JCP stronger than 2013.  The Right/Left split of 2017 would be similar to 2014 but unlikely 2014 when the main Third Pole party JIP had some tactical alliances with DPJ this time around that is possible but it will not as coordinated since for sure ORA will not have any tactical alliance with DP.  Only hope to stop a complete LDP-KP tidal wave would be some sort of DP-SDP-LP-JCP alliance.  Given it is the Conservative wing of the DP that is now in charge of DP this does not seem easy at all.

Someone put together a map by district using 2014 PR vote share by party of LDP+KP vs DPJ+PLP+SDP+JCP.  Of course JIP vote share is totally left out so I guess the map figures the JIP effect is a wash.   Blue is DPJ+PLP+SDP+JCP ahead of LDP+KP

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Latest Abe approval average curve

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TOKYO, Sept. 19 Kyodo
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering laying out his plan next week for a general election, a government source said Tuesday.
Abe is looking to hold a press conference on Monday to announce that he will dissolve the House of Representatives on Sept. 28, when the lower house will convene for an extraordinary session.
In line with the schedule, official campaigning would start on Oct. 10 for the election on Oct. 22, ruling party sources said.

Is this pretty much going to be an Abe landslide or is there any chance he could face a challenge.  It seems that although his approval rating is not great, opposition is so fragmented none could realistically challenge the LDP.

Tokyo stocks rose nearly 2 percent Tuesday with the Nikkei index ending at its highest level in more than two years.  Market mostly pricing in a LDP landslide.

Pretty much.   Main risk to LDP is that turnout will be high and the election becomes a referendum and not a choice election in which case LDP-KP might lose their 2/3 majority.

I will believe it when I see it. Japanese PMs have pulled these fake out press conferences before.

If seems now certain that 若狭 勝 (Wakasa Masaru)'s pro-Koike  JFP will merge with 細野 豪志 (Hosono Gōshi) group of ex-DP MPs to from a new party next week with a new name and new symbol.  This way this new party starts with more than 5 MPs to qualify for funding which would necessary for the likely upcoming election campaign.  

It seems that this new party will run "dozens" to "up to 50" in the upcoming election.  Most likely they will run in all 25 Tokyo seats and in various other seats where they manage to recruit quality candidates.  In many ways this elections is really bad news for Koike's national ambitions.  It force her to get a national up and running to stay relevant but gives her no time for fundraising or to recruit good candidates.  And a poor election result might inhibit donors and quality defectors/candidates in the future.   This impact seems like a feature of Abe/LDP calling the election early, if that were to take place.  

In that sense as bad shape as DP is in, this early election might be good new for DP in the sense that it will help kill off another rival which could emerge as the alternative to LDP which DP currently occupies.  In fact both LDP and DP have an instinctive to keep DP the alternative to LDP.  For DP that is obvious and for LDP it is to make sure its national alternative is always worse than itself, which it gets with DP.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will dissolve the House of Representatives for an election at the outset of an extraordinary Diet session to be convened on Sept. 28 without delivering a policy speech, ruling party sources said Thursday.

A leaked internal LDP survey has it

LDP          258-276
DP             98-108
JCP             26-31
Koike Party   5-10

out of 465 seats

If we assume KP at 34, LP at 2, SDP at 2, Ind at around 4, then that puts JRP at around 15.

back in 2014 it was

LDP           291 plus 2 defectors from FPG = 293
KP              35
DPJ             73
JIP              41
JCP             21
SDP             2
PLP              2
Ind              8

out of 475 seats

LDP pre-election surveys tends to underestimate LDP support as to lower expectations so this survey should be seen as a floor for LDP performance.   Although this survey does seem to indicate that JRP will be wiped out outside of Osaka and Koike Party will be wiped out outside of Tokyo.

The large number of seats for DP is the mirror image of the underestimation, on purpose, of LDP. I would add 25 seats to LDP and subtract 25 seats from DP and even that result for DP has to come from a reasonable level of tactical alliance with JCP in a number of key seats and perhaps with Koike Party in others.  The real shock of the survey is the JCP surge.  Given the fact that the JCP will most likely win 1 FPTP seat and perhaps a couple of more if DP lets them with DP support and manage to win (all very big ifs) that still leaves a large surge for JCP in the PR section.  It seems that the LDP survey would have JCP at around 15% on the PR section at least which would be a record level of support of JCP in Japan election history.

That 15% would give JCP 27 seats

It would be a record in terms of raw support, but it would not be a record in terms of proportion of house seats.

I wonder what Bgwah has to say about that. :P

Sure, but that has to do with the post 1993 system of mainly FPTP with some PR seats versus multi-member districts 1993 and before.  In terms of vote share 11%-12% is pretty much the peak of the JCP (mostly in the mid 1990s)

Bloomberg) --
The date of Japan’s lower house election is said to be set for Oct. 22, according to three people with direct knowledge of the ruling coalition’s plan.  The people asked not to be identified as the date has yet to be announced

Magazine 週刊現代(Shukan Gendai) came out with their initial projection which projects a major LDP setback with Koike Party eating into the LDP base instead of DP.  It also has fairly effective DP-SDP-LP-JCP alliances in the district seats.   It also does not have a JCP surge with DP mostly keeping its voting base from 2016.

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                      District      PR      Total        Implied PR%
LDP                   171        51       222              25.5%
KP                        6        25         31              13.5%
JRP                      5         11         16               6.5%
Koike Party         16         25         41              14.0%
DP                     79          42      121              22.5%
JCP                      2         21         23              12.0%
SDP                     1          1            2               2.5%
LP                        2          0           2                2.0%
Ind                      7
Total                 289       176       465  

Fuji news came out with their projections which also has a small LDP setback with LDP-KP losing their 2/3 majority but much better than the Hukan Gendai projection.  This projection has Koike Party eating partly into the LDP base but more of the DP base. Again, effective DP-SDP-LP-JCP alliance plus some anti-LDP tactical voting with Koike Party keep LDP-KP just below 2/3 majority.

                      District      PR      Total        Implied PR%
LDP                   212        61       273              30.5%
KP                        9        25         34              13.5%
JRP                      6         12         18               7.0%
Koike Party           9         26         35              14.5%
DP                     44         28         72              15.5%
JCP                      1         23         24              13.0%
SDP                     1          1            2               2.5%
LP                        2          0           2                2.0%
Ind                      5
Total                 289       176       465  

Frankly I would not put too much faith in these types of projections right after the election is called.  They usually have an anti-LDP bias since a lot of their info are from various LDP surveys which usually low-ball LDP strength it lower expectations.

We should really wait for the consortium of media outlet sponsored massive poll which usually has a pro-LDP tilt but generally pretty accurate.  If the election is called they usually come out a couple of weeks before the election itself.

I personally do not buy this baloney that Koike Party can win ~14% of the PR vote.  They would be lucky to cross 8%.   There is no party name yet and they really have nothing outside of Tokyo in terms of organization other than various DP and LDP defectors which might get something in a dozen districts outside of Tokyo. 

If LDP does win by a landslide then one can make the argument that DPRK's Kim Jong-un should run for LDP President in Sept 2018 and by all rights should win.  A couple of months ago Abe/LDP were on the ropes after the crushing defeat in the Tokyo Prefecture elections. Thanks to Kim LDP managed to recover and chaos inside DP has given it an opening to win.  One has to think based on recent events that Kim Jong-un is a secret LDP member. 

Surely they mean JIP, not JRP?

JIP is gone. Hashomoto created JRP in 2012.  Then JRP merged with YP splinter UP in 2014 for form JIP with PFG splitting out from JRP to oppose to this merger.   Then JIP split in late 2015 where Hashimoto took ORA out of JIP to oppose the trend inside JIP to ally with DPJ.  JIP then merged with DPJ in 2016 to form DP.  ORA then renamed itself back to JRP.  I know it is confusing since JRP, ORA and JIP all has the word 維新 (Ishin) in it.  

Is there any ideological difference between DP and JRP?

JRP is very right-wing, while the Dems are a centre, to centre-left big tent party.

Political analyst 児玉克哉 (Kodama Katsuya) had not come out with a projection yet but came out with a comment that most projections has LDP losing some seats.  While that is very possible, he feels that there is a strong chance that LDP gains a large number of seats.   He said at this stage it can end up being more but DP can only really count on 30 seats or so (10 in District and 20 in PR).  If so then LDP will gain most of the seats that DP loses in this situation, especially in the district seats.

JRP is mostly another LDP faction.  It competes with LDP in Osaka but outside of Osaka actually acts like a LDP rebel faction where they might opposed LDP and if need so have tactical alliances with DP but when it comes down to it will align with LDP based on similar ideology.   It is fairly aligned with the hawkish faction of LDP on constitutional reform but mainly focused on decentralization of power toward key regional centers. 

DP is a big tent party that contains old Socialist to Free Market libertarians.  It also have a fairly hawkish faction although it is mostly dovish.  A key component of DP is the Rengo labor union bloc which is at odds with the urban middle class DP vote on the nuclear power issue. 

This election is turning into 47 separate elections at the prefecture level versus one national election with totally different trends in different prefectures.

In Tokyo and 神奈川(Kanagawa) DP is completely falling apart with mass defections to the Koike Party.  In both prefectures it seems it will be LDP vs Kokie Party with DP playing at most a spoiler role. 

In 北海道(Hokkaido) and 熊本(Kumamoto) the local branches of DP and JCP are forming alliances with is critical in  北海道(Hokkaido) where a DP-SDP-LP-JCP alliance could create an onslaught that could end up crushing LDP-KP.  KP now risks losing its one district seat in 北海道(Hokkaido).   A lot of the pro-DP projections seem to be based on the assumptions that despite hostility between the current Conservative leadership in DP and JCP at the local level the local chapters of DP and JCP can work out deals to put up a united front against LDP-KP in districts where it counts.

Koike not to become head of new party planned by her ally
Saturday, September 23, 2017 01:05 AM
TOKYO, Sept. 23 Kyodo
Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike will not become the head of a new national party a lawmaker close to her is planning to establish ahead of a general election expected next month, the lawmaker said Saturday.
"It has been almost decided that (the post of a new party's chief) will be filled by a Diet member," the lower house lawmaker Masaru Wakasa said on a television program.
Wakasa is forming a new party with other lawmakers including Goshi Hosono, a former environment minister who recently left the main opposition Democratic Party, and is aiming to field more than 50 candidates once Prime Minister Shinzo Abe calls a general election next week as widely expected.
"I have never asked Koike" to become the head of the planned party, Wakasa added.
Still, there are expectations Wakasa's party will ask Koike to take up a senior post to capitalize on the Tokyo governor's popularity.
Koike's Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First party) scored a sweeping victory in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election in July, dethroning Abe's Liberal Democratic Party.
Wakasa and Hosono will likely settle on "Hope" party as a new name of their party, people familiar with the matter said, apparently seeking a close association with Koike's political school called School of Hope.
Wakasa also said his new party should be an alternative to Abe's LDP and the Democratic Party and suggested that it will not, in principle, seek to field unified candidates with other opposition parties in single-seat constituencies.

Looks like the Koike Party will most likely be called "希望の党" or Hope Party.  Not clear what the official English name of the party will be yet.  Party will be officially kicked off 9/27, the same day Abe is likely to call new elections.

Kyodo poll on PR voting intentions

Looks like this new Hope party have some legs. I totally underestimated it.  

LDP    27.0
DP       8.0
HP       6.2  (Hope Party which is Koike Party)
KP       4.6
JCP      3.5
JRP      2.2
SDP     0.3
LP       0.1
PJK      0.0

Abe cabinet support

Support   45
Oppose    41.3

Are you for mid-term elections

For         23.7
Against   64.3

back in Nov 2014 right before the 2014 midterm election the Kyodo poll was

LDP      28.0
DPJ       10.3
KP          4.6
JCP         4.4
JIP         3.3
SDP       0.8
PFG        0.6
PLP        0.3

with result being

LDP      33.11
KP       13.71
DP       18.33
JCP      11.37
JIP       15.72
SDP       2.46
FPG       2.65
PLP       1.93

This poll seems to indicate

LDP will be around 31  KP at 13.5-14 as always and DP at around 15.5.  Which means that Koike Party mostly gained at the expense of of DP with JCP not doing that great.  If so then this will be a crushing landslide by LDP-KP.

If we do a comparison to the Kyodo first round poll in 2016 Upper House elections we had

LDP　28.9%　→　27.0%（-1.9%）
DP 　10.9%　→　  8.0%（-2.9%）
KP 　  6.3%　→　  4.6%（-1.7%）
JCP     5.3%　→　 3.5%（-1.8%）
JRP     2.4%　→　 2.2%（-0.2%）
SDP    1.6%　→　 0.3%（-1.3%）
LP       0.7%　→　 0.1%（-0.6%）
HP　    NA　   →　 6.2%

2016 ended up being

LDP     35.91
DP       20.98
KP       13.52
JCP      10.74
JRP       9.20
SDP      2.74
LP         1.91

I would just throw out any polling for KP.  No matter what If turnout is very very low then KP will be at 14.5 and if turnout is very very high KP will be at around 12.5.  Else it will be around 13.5 or so.

This comparison also shows HP taking somewhat more votes from DP than LDP but this comparison is more favorable to DP since in 2016 DP has a higher base.  There does not seem to be any sign of a JCP surge that many projections are talking about.

Election for Osaka prefecture city 堺市(Sakai) mayor today.  It is LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama) vs JRP backed candidate 永藤 (Eiji) (with nominal support from KP).  For a while during the campaign it seems that Eiji might catch fire.  But in the end it seems like it will be a victory of the incumbent Takeyama. 

Polls just closed and exit polls indicate a Takeyama victory.

MBS exit poll
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NHK exit poll on party support of voters
LDP   28
JRP    22
KP      6
JCP     6
DP      5
LP      2
SDP    1
Ind.  29

堺市(Sakai) mayor exit poll by party support

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LDP (red), DP(blue), JCP(purple) voters clearly voted for Takeyama and JRP (yellow) clearly voted for Eiji.  Independents went for Eiji by a small margin which is keeping Eiji in the race.  What is a surprise is that KP (pink) is going for  Takeyama despite de facto KP support for JRP.

I don't get why Koike's party would eat into DP's vote.

LDP KP and JCP are machine votes.  DP votes are "floating voters" that vote the latest fad.   JRP in 2012 dramatically cut into the DPJ vote which DP is slowly recovering from.  I guess it is totally possible HP will be the fad of 2017 and cut into DP's vote.

Three possible scenarios I see in the snap election

Scenario 1 (Opposition unity failure including HP bombing out in Tokyo) (40%)
LDP-KP               340 seats
DP-SDP-LP-JCP     85  seats
JRP                     30 seats
HP                      15 seats

Scenario 2 (Opposition unity success and wins marginal seats, HP bombs out) (25%)
LDP-KP               275 seats
DP-SDP-LP-JCP   160  seats
JRP                     25 seats
HP                      15 seats

Scenario 3 (HP surge which includes sweeping Tokyo) (35%)
LDP-KP               280 seats
DP-SDP-LP-JCP   115  seats
JRP                     15 seats
HP                      65 seats

NHK calls the 堺市(Sakai) mayor race for LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama).  No official results in yet but I guess they have access to their exit poll plus some unofficial initial counts at the counting centers. 

堺市(Sakai) mayor race 29% of the vote in

LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     52.6%
JRP backed 永藤 (Eiji)                                                        47.4%

堺市(Sakai) mayor race 68% of the vote in

LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     53.1%
JRP backed 永藤 (Eiji)                                                        46.9%

Back in 2013 for 堺市(Sakai) mayor race it was

LDP-DPJ-SDP-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     58.5%
JRP candidate                                                              41.5%

Nikkei poll (has historic LDP lean)

Abe approval  50(+4)/42(-4)

Party support

LDP   44
HP      8
DP      8
JCP     5
KP      3
JRP     3
SDP    1
LP      1

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Historically one gets LDP-KP PR vote share in Nikkei polls by adding LDP+KP which is 47 given the historic LDP house effect for Nikkei polls.  Still LDP+KP at 47 and HP and DP both around equal and without an alliance means a mega landslide for LDP+KP.

Husband of PJK President 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko), 中山 成彬 (Nakayama Nariaki), seems to be set to join leave PJK and join HP.

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PJK is an avowed enemy of Koike in Tokyo so this move seems bizarre.  This must be the first example of a husband leaving a party that his wife is the leader of.  The Husband-Wife pair are both former LDP MPs before they bolted to join various Hawk LDP rebel parties.

Edit:  It seems both couple are going to join HP.  This is the end of PJK.

UPDATE1: Senior vice minister to join new opposition force
Sunday, September 24, 2017 06:24 AM
TOKYO, Sept. 24 Kyodo
(EDS: UPDATING WITH SMALL OPPOSITION PARTY LEADER'S PLAN TO JOIN NEW PARTY)
A senior vice minister of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, Mineyuki Fukuda, said Sunday he will leave the ruling bloc to join a new party being organized by those close to Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike.
Kyoko Nakayama, leader of the small opposition the Party for Japanese Kokoro also met with Koike the same day and expressed an intention to join the planned new party, a source close to the matter said.
Fukuda, a senior vice minister of the Cabinet Office, said at a press conference he will leave the Liberal Democratic Party to run in the general election expected for next month with the new party, which could realign the opposition camp amid the dominance of the LDP-led coalition.
"I'm not meaning to criticize the LDP," Fukuda said. "I'd like to create socially desirable human resources with Mr. Wakasa."
Masaru Wakasa, another LDP defector and close aide to Koike, said at the same news conference that more could leave the LDP to join the new party, which has also attracted opposition lawmakers including Goshi Hosono, who recently left the Democratic Party, the largest opposition struggling to regain public support under new leader Seiji Maehara.
Fukuda, a 53-year-old House of Representatives member in his third term, will convey his intention to the LDP on Monday.
First elected to the lower house in 2005, Fukuda was defeated in the 2014 general election in his constituency in Kanagawa Prefecture but clung to a Diet seat on proportional representation.
Also Sunday, Hosono said many voters believe it is risky to keep Abe in power while also considering the existing opposition parties as not becoming realistic alternatives.
"We'll present a choice in the middle of them," Hosono said on a TV program. He also said the new party will field candidates throughout the country.
"We're not intending to be a third pole. We're aiming to be the governing party," Hosono said.

堺市(Sakai) mayor race final result

LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     53.8%
JRP backed 永藤 (Eiji)                                                        46.2%

It is just amazing how JRP can come so close against an incumbent that was backed by LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP with nominal KP support. Shows how strong JRP are at the local level in Osaka.

So it seems that PJK will merge into HP when it is formed.  Not sure it is such a good idea for HP as it will give it a hard right image when its main chance should be to take votes from DP to grow.  Could be HP figure that turmoil in DP will produce a shift anyway from DP to HP so HP should focus on trying add some Hawk Right vote from LDP to add to the HP kitty. 

Abe Calls Snap Election in Japan, Readies $18 Billion Package.  Will be for 10/22

It seems that Koike will lead the new party Party of Hope or PH.   It seems she is going to try to gamble on a credible result in 2017 versus waiting for her political novelty value declines.  Of course she is taking a big risk.  If her party bombs then she could be saying goodbye to a relevant role in national politics for a long time if ever.

It seems that fonder of the defunct YP, 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) who was with JRP for a while seems will also join the new HP led by Koike.  So Koike will have 2 former party leaders under her wing, both 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) of YP  and 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) of PJK.

Could you provide us with a list of the parties running?

It seems Abe's official reason for the election is also about the consumption tax.

Back in 2012 given the dire fiscal situation, the DPJ and LDP made a deal to have a planned increase in the consumption tax and in return DPJ agreed to early elections in 2012.  This broke the DPJ which splintered will the JRP and YP surge help LDP-KP to a landslide victory in 2012.

In 2014 Abe dissolved the lower house to delay the consumption tax increase and won in another landslide.  Right before the 2016  Upper House elections, Abe made the decision to delay the consumption tax again vowing that he will never delay it again.  This helped in part to a credible victory by the LDP in the 2016 Upper House elections.

Now, true to his word, Abe did not dissolve the Lower House to delay the consumption tax.  Abe wants the dissolve the Lower House on the platform of using the increased revenue from the consumption tax increase for spending for child care instead of lowering the deficit. 

All polls seems to show a large majority not approving Abe's decision to call for elections  but that was true in 2014 as well and did not stop Abe from winning in a landslide in 2014.

Abe approve curve.  Well above water but not super great

()

I assumed the faction that broke away from the Democrats to join Koike did so because their own party was too right wing. But now that PJK is joining, that doesn't make sense.

Unless maybe they are united by something else, anti-Americanism maybe? What dos Koike think about America? Do you think she will campaign for a withdrawal of troops?

Wait why would you think that? Koike is surely to the right of DP, even with Maehara being on the right of the party.

Japanese politics does not work that way.  Ideology is nothing.  Leadership charisma and relationships is  everything.  All politics revolves around key leaders. 

LDP - Center-right long-time ruling party.  Strong in local politics and in rural areas but with a significant presence across the board.  Clientelist party.  Very wide spectrum of opinion

DP - Center-left opposition party.  Very wide spectrum of opinion.

KP - Based on lay Buddhist order Soka Gakkai.  Appeals to lower middle class and working class.  Centrist and even center-left on most politics.  Ally of LDP or whoever is the most powerful power which is LDP most of the time.

JCP - Social Democratic party with Communist roots.  Pretty moderate these days.

SDP - Old Socialist Party and an old shell of itself.

LP - Ozawa party.  Pretty center-left these days despite Ozawa's Rightist roots in LDP and mostly reduced to a Iwate regional party.

JRP - Hashimoto Party. Mostly an Osaka regional party and pretty hard right.

HP - New Koike party.  Fairly far right on most policies.  Very strong in Tokyo.

HRP - Fringe Far Right party based on Happy Science which is pretty much a cult.

NPB - A protest party and adversities itself for those what want to vote for "None of the Above"

Koike taking the risk to leading HP is a gamble for sure but is really bad news for DP.  All the media coverage will be about Abe vs Koike.  When people ask about DP it will be "D who?"  I think DP might be facing a situation where its vote share will fall to 15% or even lower.  I not even sure there is much room for a JCP surge.

Out of 289 district seats DP has candidates for 210 seats and plans on 233.  JCP has candidates for 260. It seems JCP is willing to withdraw candidates in some 50 or so  LDP-DP marginal seats in return for DP withdrawing their candidates in seats which JCP are very strong.  If they cannot come to such a deal I think LDP itself will get over 300 seats.

One of my earlier posts on how the Japan Lower House PR section works.  It is now 176 PR seats

北海道 (Hokkaido)                               8
東北(Tohoku)                                     13
北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto)       19
南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto)  22
東京 (Tokyo)                                     17
北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu)               11
東海 (Tokai)                                      21
近畿 (Kinki)                                      28
中国(Chugoku)                                  11
四国 (Shikoku)                                    6
九州 (Kyūshū)                                   20

HP from the top leadership and down are mostly filled with party hoppers

小池百合子(Koike Yuriko)：JNP→NFP→LP→CP→LDP→TPFA→HP
渡辺喜美(Yoshimi Watanabe)：LDP→YP→ORA→JRP→HP
細野豪志(Hosono Gōshi)：DPJ→DP→HP
松原仁(Matsubara Jin)：LL→LDP→JRP→NFP→LP→GGP→DPJ→DP→HP
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi): JRP→NFP→VP→GGP→DPJ→YP→PFG→HP
柿沢未途(Kakizawa Mito)：DPJ→YP→UP→JIP→DP→HP
中山恭子(Nakayama Kyōko)：LDP→SPJ→SP→JRP→FPG→PJK→HP
中山成彬(Nakayama Nariaki)：LDP→SPJ→JRP→FPG→PJK→HP
木内孝胤(Kiuchi Takatane)：DPJ→PLF→TPJ→PLP→JIP→DP→HP
長島昭久(Nagashima Akihisa)：DPJ→DP→HP
後藤祐一(Gotō Yūichi)：DPJ→DP→HP
笠浩史(Ryu Hirofumi)：DPJ→DP→HP
福田峰之(Fukuda Mineyuki)：LDP→HP
鈴木義弘(Suzuki Yoshihiro)：LDP→JRP→JIP→VOR→DP→HP
若狭勝 (Wakasa Masaru)：LDP→JFP→HP
行田邦子(Koda Kuniko)：DPJ→GW→YP→HP

松原仁(Matsubara Jin) who just led the DP campaign in the Tokyo Prefecture elections against the Koike led TPFA also defected to HP.  It seems the entire Tokyo DP leadership is going over to HP.  A re-run of what took place in Osaka in 2012 with a good chunk of the DPJ branch of Osaka going over to Hashimoto's JRP.

Political science Professor 岩井奉信 (Iwai Iensan) came out with the following projection

LDP   260-280
KP      30-33
JRP     10-15
HP      30-50
DP      60-70
SDP      2
LP         2
JCP     20-25

Which means the medium case has LDP-KP at around 302 and barely misses 2/3 majority. 

Frankly I think JRP at 10-15 is too low.  I did some simulations and unless JRP PR vote falls to something like 5% (versus something like 7%)and/or JRP falls apart in Osaka JRP should get around 11-12 PR seats and with JRP most likely winning around 5 Osaka FPTP seats out of 19 if not more JRP should be at least 15 if not 20 seats.

The rest seems plausible.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Opposition-Democrats-seek-merger-with-Tokyo-gov-s-party

Opposition Democrats seek merger with Tokyo gov's party.  he leader of the Democratic Party met with Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike Tuesday night to discuss a possible merger with her new national party, aiming to assemble a political force that can take on the dominant ruling party.

Wow.

There are also rumors that Ozawa will work to merge his LP either with DP or HP.   Ozawa and Koike go way back and Ozawa will be a pro-Koike force no matter what party he is in.

Would KP still remain loyal to LDP in that situation?

There seems to be some talks between HP and JRP about possible alliances in certain seats.  Looks like Koike is going all out to get Abe this election.

Yes.  KP pretty much is going with LDP this election cycle.  This is not certain at all next general election.  In fact the risk is the other way.  If the general election sharpens conflict between HP and KP in Tokyo there might be a break in the TPFA-KP alliance in the Tokyo Prefecture leaving Koike without a majority and needing DP and JCP to prop her up.

It is said that the "Dark Lord" behind the scenes working for Koike is no other than former LDP PM Koizumi.  Koizumi junior is a rising superstar in the LDP so it seems the Koizumi clan plans to comeback to power is for Koizumi junior to work the LDP angle while Koizumi senior works out various anti-Abe forces inside and outside of the LDP.

Koizumi junior who is 36 is one of the LDP rising superstars that might become PM in 20 years or so.  The rule in LDP politics is that if you want to be PM it is best to come from a prominent and powerful political family but have your father die early.  Reason is an unwritten rule in Japanese hereditary policies is that only one member of a political family can be in politics at one time.  Sort of similar to the old English rule about only one unmarried daughter in a string of sisters can be out in society at one time.  So if your father is a MP and hold on to that position until he is in his 70s, by the time he passes away and you get in, by the time you have enough tenure as a MP it is too late for you to fight for the top job.  Unless your father dies early and you become a MP in your early 30s.  Abe and Ozawa both had this "luxury" of being a MP early in their life.   Koizumi senior was the same.  Difference here is Koizumi senior retired as PM and politics at age 63 which is fairly early and with his "political death" his son Koizumi junior was able to enter politics and become a MP at age 28.  So by the time Koizumi is in his 50s he would have the tenure and energy to fight for the top job.

If there ends up being a DP-HP merger or alliance then that would mean the DP-JCP alliance is off which would put DP back to the pre-2016 strategy of a non-LDP non-JCP majority with the JCP back out in the cold again.  In some ways this might be a more viable strategy for DP since this would also mean than an DP-HP-KP alliance is possible in the future.  Main risk is the Left wing of DP is quite large and could defect to JCP leaving DP-HP-KP still behind LDP overall with JCP being a very large spoiler.  Key to avoid a large Center-Left DP rebellion against a DP-HP alliance or merger would be to get anti-JCP labor union confederation Rengo to back it since Rengo is the real paymaster behind many Center-Left DP politicians.   One hitch is that Rengo is pro-nuclear power while Koike's HP came out clearly against nuclear power.

DP is being screwed from all sides, it seems.

Reminds me quite a lot of Germany's electoral system tbh, except I guess this one is not proportional

Some initial thoughts from me how the PR vote share will shake out in absence of post-Koike polls. 

First we have the 2014 vote share by PR section
()

Which produces this in terms of 180 PR seats by PR section
()

Now in 2017 there will by 176 seats so if we recalculate 2014 results based on 176 seats we get
()



We then had the 2016 Upper House election.  JIP had ORA split off and merged into DPJ to form DP. PFG renamed itself PJK. VPA ran as a center-left party, NPR which is a right-libertarian LDP splinter ran again, while NPB ran as a no-of-above protest party. 
()

If we calculated 176 PR seats based on the 2016 PR votes we get
()


Now on to 2017.  ORA became JRP again.   VPA and NPR mostly disappeared.  PJK looks like to be gone as well.  PLP renamed themselves as LP. Hokkaido LDP splinter NPD which backed DPJ in 2014 will now run mostly as a de facto LDP ally.  Of course we have Koike's HP.   I make assumptions that HP will gain a lot at the expense of DP in the Tokyo suburbs while gaining from both LDP and DP in Tokyo.  DP's vote will hold up more in its traditional strongholds in Northern Japan while LDP will lose less votes to HP in the LDP strongholds in Southern Japan. JRP will drop across the board but will mostly retain its Osaka base.
()

Which gives us the following seat distribution
()

One way to push up the seat count of anti-LDP parties is if SDP and LP merge into DP.  SDP and LP vote shares in most PR sections fall below the threshold to get seats and become wasted votes.

Koike kicks off HP

()

New Mainichi poll with shocking results

Abe approval/disapproval  36/42

Prefer ruling party gain seats/opposition party gain seats 34/49

PR vote

LDP    29
KP       5
JRP      3
HP     18
DP      8
LP       1
SDP    0
JCP     5

Back in 2014 Mainichi polls had

LDP    38
KP       6
DPJ    12

DP Head Maehara May Allow Candidates to Stand Under Koike: NHK
Wednesday, September 27, 2017 06:21 AM
By Chris Cooper

(Bloomberg) --
Democratic Party leader Seiji Maehara intends to allow his party’s candidates to join Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope if they want to, public broadcaster NHK reported

The two Japanese political parties will likely need to discuss the matter among themselves, as Maehara faces opposition internally and Koike has expressed doubts on the plan, broadcaster NHK said, without saying where it got the information

Tokyo poll before Koike announced that she will lead HP

()

LDP     39
HP      28
JCP     14
DP        9
KP        6

Most likely have moved in HP's direction from LDP since

Party positions

()


             North Korea         Hawkish             Increase            Nuclear
                                   Constitutional       Consumption         Power(my addition)
                                      Change                  Tax                    
LDP          Pressure               Yes                    Yes                   Yes
DP            Dialogue               No                    Yes                    No
KP            Pressure               No                    Yes                    Yes
JCP           Dialogue               No                    No                     No
JRP           Pressure              Yes                    No                     No
HP            Pressure              Yes                    No                     No

JCP is the true anti-LDP party.   JRP and HP have the same positions but any conflict between the two are all about the egos of Koike and Hashimoto.   By being for consumption tax increase LDP KP and DP are "establishment parties."  LDP JRP HP are Hawk parties while DP and JCP are dove parties.  KP is in theory dove but that is more about its pro-PRC position.  When it comes to DPRK KP is a hawk as well.

Wow. This is turning into an exciting election whereas I thought a week ago it was going to be the same boring LDP-KP landslide.  While LDP-KP landslide is very possible if HP can form tactical alliance with DP and JRP without a massive defection from the DP left then there is a chance that Abe may win the Theresa May award.

As for HP it seems Koike will re-run her Tokyo Prefecture Marcron like election strategy with a bunch of defectors and political neophytes with a focus on women candidates.  Unlike Tokyo Prefecture elections it seems there have not been a large number of LDP defectors plus not having KP on her side.  So there will be no LDP meltdown unlike Tokyo Prefecture.  LDP-KP most likely will fall from mid to high 40s to low 40s but that is about it.  HP has to try to cobble an alliance of voting blocs that can match that and will most likely come up short.

DP President 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) seems to be willing to run for his seat as an independent as have HP agree to back him in his district.  This is the first time I heard of a leader of a party not actually running with his/her party label.   If this is what it comes to then I think we are close to DP ceasing to exist and splitting with the 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) DP Right merging with HP and DP Left creating a new party allied with   JCP.  Key problem for the DP left is that 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) has the party seal and all the party cash.   So a DP Left party will be without resources to fight any real election.

Well, if DP does split, that was an incredibly short period of existence.

DP should blame ex-Tokyo governor 舛添 要一(Masuzoe Yōichi) for all this.  If it was not for his scandals back in 2016 that led him to resign, Koike would never have ran for governor of Tokyo, capturing the anti-LDP vote from DP in Tokyo along the way.  There would not have been the DP Tokyo Prefecture election debacle and DP would be the main gainers from various Abe scandals.  There is no way DP could have beaten LDP in a 2017 or 2018 Lower House elections but they would be the main alternative to LDP and would have been able to build on their credible 2016 Upper House election.

DP 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji)announces that DP will not become a party after this upcoming election and that exiting members will run as independents in alliances with other parties.  So I was right, this is pretty much the 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) Conservative faction of the DP taking the DP money and going over to HP leaving the DP Left with nothing.

This seems to be a mistake.  A HP-DP alliance is a much better option.   A enlarged HP with the DP money but not the cadres in DP strongholds in Northern Japan and places like 三重(Mie) and 愛知   (Aichi) is handing a large number of seats to LDP.

Asahi poll (obviously before the dramatic events tonight)

District
LDP  ３１％
DP     ９％
HP     ６％
JCP    ４％
KP     ３％
JRP    ２％
SDP   １％
LP      ０％

PR
LDP ３２％
HP   １３％
DP     ８％
KP     ６％
JCP    ５％
JRP    ３％
SDP   ２％
LP     １％

Back in 2014 Asahi poll for PR was

LDP  37%
DPJ  13%
JIP     9%
JCP    6%
NKP   4%
SDP   1%
PLP    0%
PFG   0%


This is why it is unwise to just dissolve DP and merge into HP.  Many people will vote HP as the brand of Koike but at the district level HP has no real quality candidates with a cadre force to work for it for GOTV.

Koike denies wanting a merger or alliance with DP.  So 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) might have destroyed his party for nothing.  Of course the leadership group of DP will make a make a final decision on Maehara's proposal.  But the damage is done.  Even if DP lives on various DP voters have no reason to vote for a party that the leader does not thing even needs to exist.  Their votes will scatter between HP LDP and JCP.   If enough of these votes go LDP we can see the greatest landslide in Japanese election history. 

Could the DP Left join up with the moribund SDP? And I assume the unions will leave the DP with the Left, right?

Also lmao at Ozawa coming in to join Koike. Of course he's mates with Koike, of course.

And the DP and its predecessors may have had useless heads, but I struggle to think of one dumber than Seiji.

Could you explain to someone who hasn't been paying attention to this how things seem to be turning out?  Is Abe's gamble looking like it'll pay off or will it blow up in his face?

What is funny is both are possible.  Really depends on what happens the DP vote.  If they swing behind HP then this election would have blown up in Abe's face and he will lose his 2/3 majority.  LDP-KP losing their majority is not a realistic possibility.  Or if the DP vote now scatters then LDP/Abe will walk their way to a massive landslide.

In theory DP Left will create a new party (without money or resources) and have an alliance with SDP and JCP.  Problem is Rengo  which is the confederation of Unions refuses to work with JCP so they can even go and back HP before backing JCP.

This is why LDP always wins.  Rengo refuses to work with JCP, KP refuses to work with JCP, DP Right refuses to work with JCP, DP Left refuses to work with Third Pole non-LDP Right wing parties.  Net result is LDP-KP just wins by default.

Japan must have the worst politics for any democracy, right alongside Turkey.

Why do all these people refuse to work the the JCP? It seems like one of the most moderate Communist parties in the world.

Do the communists have their own union that has bad blood with Rengo or something?

If I was part of the Communists, I would advocate a reinvention and rename, but I suppose the cadre are happy in their perpetual cult status.

I would go further than just calling it unwise, I'd call it f**king moronic.

Since calling the election Abe approval heading downward slightly

()

Because Rengo, DP Right and to some extent KP all are living in the 1970s where willing the industrial working and lower-middle class was the goal and JCP was getting in the way.

The reason 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) is doing what he is doing is because of a decades old DPJ/DP Right faction prophesy that deliverance will come in the form of a split in the LDP where a rebel LDP faction will unite with the DPJ/DP Right in a political realignment and defeat LDP once and for all while discarding Center-Left elements of DPJ/DP.  Then paradise will come with this united Center-Right LDP clone party taking the place of the LDP as the natural party of governance.  When YP and JRP were formed in 2009 and 2012 some in the DPJ/DP Right believed that those parties was the rebel LDP party promised by the prophesy and joined those parties.   But both turned out to false prophets.  It seems Maehara believes Koike's HP is that one true LDP rebel party that will bring balance to the political world and finally displace LDP and create a new LDP clone ruling party in its place.

DP's leadership committee adopts  前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) motion to not run a PR list and have the DP candidates apply to run under the KP banner.  This effectively disbands DP.

()

JCP already announces that it will run in all districts where the HP is running as well as HP backed ex-DP candidates.  Not clear yet if there will be a new DP Left party that will be created for those DP candidates that does not want to join HP.  HP also announces that it will evaluate each ex-DP applicant to run under the HP banner on a one-by-one basis to make sure there are policy agreements with HP. 

I have to spend some time looking at polls when they come out as well as which DP candidates will run under HP and if the DP Left creates a new party.  But just based on what took place today my wild guess on what the results will look like is

LDP           270
KP              35
NPD             1
JRP             20
HP            105 (including HP backed ex-DP independents)
SDP             2
LP                2
JCP            25
Ind.             5

Which does mean a setback to Abe which barely loses 2/3 majority.

Koike says HP will be a "compassionate and tolorent conservative party"   

Abe says that the LDP “cannot entrust the safety of Japan and the future of our children to a party that changes its banner just for the sake of an election.”    In other words he will provide "strong and stable" leadership.  Altough he will not use those words given how they worked out in the UK.

It seems Maehara will work on a HP-DP merger after the election so the DP MPs in the Upper House will  have a home.

JRP, which is fairly anti-DP since the JIP split of 2015 indicated that it will not cooperate with HP if DP joins HP wholesale. 

Probably a good thing

Looks like Ozawa's LP will also merge into HP

鈴木貴子(Suzuki Takako), daughter of 鈴木宗男( Suzuki Muneo) who is the founder of Hokkaido Postal reform LDP rebel party NPD has joined LDP.  Suzuki Takako ran in 2014 on the DPJ ticket and won a PR seat.  NPD has been on and off ally with DPJ since 2005 but in 2015 clearly become pro-LDP.   It is possible now that NPD might just merge back into LDP. 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/09/28/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-dissolves-lower-house-opposition-bands-together/#.Wc0AH3MpDqB

Looks like the DP MPs will be getting the Manuel Valls treatment. The bit about constitutional revision is rather remarkable. Is there a chance that Abe might lose seats but get the necessary majority to pass revision through the House? There's still the upper house to worry about, of course.

Yep.  But now is the time to see who in the DP Left are true believes.  At this stage it is too late for the DP Left to form their own party.  So since Maehara has all the cash and if Rengo supports Maehara move then these DP Left MPs will be running alone with at best JCP support in their district in a 3 way race between LDP HP and themselves.  Even if they have connections locally, in an election billed as an Abe vs Koike battle royal they are most likely to lose.  And since they are not part of a party with a PR slate their loss means the end of their political career.  I suspect a lot of these DP Left MPs will either retire or grovel to HP's terms. Only some will go it alone and many of those will be defeated. 

After the election the Center Left will have to start from nothing.   This might be a great chance for the JCP to expand toward the center.  In this election I can see JCP surging to something like 15% from 10%-11% based on the defection of the DP Left vote.

In this election HP's target has to be at least 100 seats in my view for Koike to be a viable alternative to the LDP and possibility win in the 2021 election.  Getting over 100 seats for HP would also mean that there is a good chance LDP-KP is held below 2/3 majority which would also create the optics that Abe "lost" the election.

I an sort of see how it can be done.  HP can get around 25%-30% of the vote which would  be around 50-60 PR seats. Out of the 289 districts seats, if it sweeps, say, 17-20 out of the 25 Tokyo seats, win around 15 out of the 46 Tokyo suburb seats in 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), 神奈川(Kanagawa) where it is strong, then it just have to win another 15-20 seats in the rest of Japan. That is where it gets tricky.  There are plenty areas of DP strength in the rest of Japan that HP can add its new base to, like 北海道(Hokkaido), 宮城(Miyagi),
福島(Fukushima), 新潟(Niigata), 愛知(Aichi), and 三重(Mie).  The DP branches in 愛知(Aichi), and 三重(Mie) are more Conservative so most of that vote will go to HP.  But in the Northern DP strongholds the DP Left wing are stronger and many of those DP votes will not vote, vote JCP or even vote LDP as opposed to HP.  I can see HP winning these 15-20 seats but it would depend a lot on how the DP Left voters go.

 

Couldn't they join the SDP?

There are rumors that Koike will, contrary to what she claims so far, resign as Tokyo Governor and run for Lower House and that the person that will run to take over her position is none other than her de facto ally, former LDP PM Koizumi.   Unlikely to be true but a sensational rumor.

No better. SDP wins around 2% of the PR vote which only qualifies them for a PR seat in 九州(Kyūshū) only because they tend to get around 5% there.   To get seats a party has to get at least 5% some of the larger PR blocs or around 8% in the smaller PR blocs.  Unless SDP PR vote rises dramatically this is of little use.  Only way is the entire LDP Left MPs join en bloc and bring all their vote with them to vote SDP on the PR slate.  There are too many ifs and coordination for this to happen.  Besides the Socialist SDP has baggage as well will repel some of the DP Left voters.  Most likely it will be everyone for themselves.   And if 5 of them could get elected then they can bloc up and forma a Center-Left party and start from there.

Asahi surveyed 81 DP candidates, at least 61 will apply to run on the HP ticket.

The SDP is pretty far left, too, isn't it (at least as far as Japanese politics are concerned, which are pretty right-wing overall - other than extreme dovishness, they sound mainstream for the West)? To the left of the JCP? At least that was my understanding of the current state of the party. And I doubt they'd want dozens of former DP'ers coming in and taking over their party.

Turnout in Lower House elections since 1946

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One reason for LDP victory in 2014 was low turnout.  If turnout reaches above 60% LDP might be in trouble.

Note turnout went down starting in the 41th House elections.  That is that year, 1996, they started single member districts versus multi-member districts.  So in stronghold districts turnout went down since they were no longer competitive.  Whereas pre-1996 with multi-member districts all of them were competitive.

Correct.  Not as Left as JCP but pretty close.  And yes, obviously they would not want a hostile takeover from Left DP MPs.

Not as far left but more pro-North Korea.

Political analyst 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) newest projections

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            District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP       171        59       230             31.5%
KP            9         24        33             13.5%
JRP           4         10       14               7.0%
HP          92         56      148             29.5%
SDP          1           1         2               3.0%
JCP           1         26       27              14.5%
Ind.        11           0       11   (mostly likely 2-3 LDP rebels, rest DP Left)
------------------------------------------------
            289        176      465

I think my guess for PR vote is not too far off from what he has although I would have LDP a bit higher and HP a bit lower.  I do not think it is realistic for HP to win 92 FPTP seats but I could very wrong if all non-LDP non-JCP voters, including the DP Left, consolidate behind HP.  Anyway, if this projection is true then this is a bloody nose for Abe.  

To do an apples to apples comparison since the number of seats is going from 475 to 465. I adjusted the LDP PR seat count from 2014 if 2014 results were replicated with 176 PR seats versus 180 seats.  Then I looked at the 6 prefectures that lost a seat and figured out if LDP would have lost an seat if we ran on 2017 district borders versus 2014.

青森(Aomori) LDP lose 1
()

岩手(Iwate) anti-LDP lose 1
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三重(Mie) LDP lose 1
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奈良(Nara) LDP lose 1
()

熊本(Kumamoto) LDP lose 1
()

鹿児島(Kagoshima) LDP lose 1
()

I also take into account that 2 pro-LDP independents and 2 FPG MPs joined LDP.

From there if we re-ran 2014 elections using 2017 borders we get for LDP and KP seats in 2014 to be
         district  PR   total
LDP    220      66   286
KP        9        25    34

HP made it clear that DP MPs that had high positions in the failed DPJ administration of 2009-2012 should not apply to join HP to avoid taint of that administration on HP.  So they are pre-rejecting former PMs 菅直人(Kan Naoto) and 野田佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko).  Kan is on the Left of DP anyway but Noda is more in the center of DP and could potentially passed the HP ideological vetting but I guess he is out in the cold.  Most likely both will lose re-election if they even tried to run.

It seems Koike has arranged for a summit this Sat with the governor of Osaka 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) who is the de jure leader of JRP (real leader is really Hashimoto but he is in the background) and the governor of 愛知(Aichi) 大村 秀章(Ōmura Hideaki) who also leads a Aichi regional party ATJ but also backed by Right Libertarian DPJ Aichi splinter TCJ (TCJ is allied with JRP.)

All three were elected members of the LDP but all three broke with the LDP to form anti-LDP regional splinters.  It seems that even though JRP has turned down an alliance with HP after DP's decision to merge with HP Koike is trying to get an anti-LDP united from with JRP-TCJ.  If this pulls this off then it could severely damage LDP in Osaka (and Kinki overall) and even more so in Aichi where DP is strong and a HP-DP-TCJ bloc can do real damage to LDP.

What are the English names of these parties?

ATJ - 日本一愛知の会 - Aichi is Top of Japan (Aichi regional party only at the Prefecture level)
TCJ  - 減税日本 - Tax Cuts Japan (meant to be national but in reality only active in Aichi)

I am frustrated for a different reason.  I am historically pro-LDP but I cannot stand Abe (mostly because the bogus non-orthodoxy Abeconomic stuff) . Once he is in charge of LDP I tend to back Third Pole parties to ally with DP/DPJ to give LDP a bloody nose  so they can kick Abe out and I can go back to supporting LDP.  But Abe seems to win landslide after landslide.  Hopefully he gets a setback here  and have to step down.  We will see.

Yomiuri  poll

Abe approval 43(-7)/46(+7)

PR vote

LDP     34
KP        6
JRP       2
HP      19
LP         1
SDP      1
JCP      5


Back in 2014 before the election it was

Abe Approval/Disapproval 49/42

LDP    41
DPJ    14
KP       6
JIP      5

Result was LDP-KP at 46.82%.

If LDP-KP falls a few % from 2014 and HP picks up most the rest (a big if, undecided could go back to LDP) then LDP-KP might get a nasty surprise election night.

With Yomiuri  Abe approval under water again

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DP MP 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) who was Maehara's opponent in the recent DP leadership race is the de facto leader of the DP Left.  He seems to be trying to organize a bunch of DP Left MPs that will all run as independents and if enough of them win they can form a party after the election to represent the Non-JCP Center-Left.

Looks like JCP and SDP will form an alliance and have seat adjustments with joint candidates.  I am sure on a case by case basis they will also support DP Left MPs running for re-election.

Most seats sounds like will become

LDP vs HP (or HP backed ex-DP Ind.) vs JCP
LDP vs JRP vs JCP
LDP vs SDP (or Left DP ind) (backed by JCP)
LDP vs JCP

It seems that HP will work if possible to avoid 2 non-LDP non-JCP candidates running at once.

If most seats avoid having 2 non-LDP non-JCP candidates then LDP might be in trouble and will lose a bunch of seats.

What is JRP a new outfit off Iniativees for Osaka? And has DPJ completly merged into Koikes new party? Why? Woild not DPJ stand a good chance? Is Koikes new party changing into a more centrist position now? As I have understood it has been fairly conservstive or?

Mainichi chart on Koike's summit 3 governors (for an anti-LDP front)

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Points out Osaka Governor and JRP leader 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) cooperates with Abe from time to time but is hostile to DP.  DP is merging into Koike led HP.  And Matsui is forming alliances with both Koike and 愛知(Aichi) 大村 秀章(Ōmura Hideaki).

The last time such a grand anti-LDP front is being formed was 2007 Upper House and 2009 Lower House elections where DPJ managed to rope in SDP as well as the postal reform LDP rebel parties (NPD, NPN and PNP).  From a PR vote point of view in 2007 this bloc beat LDP-KP 49.1-41.3 in 2007 and 49.8-38.2 in 2009 which set up defeats of LDP-KP in both years.  If HP can form tactical alliance with JRP-TCJ in Kinki and Aichi on the one hand as well as SDP-DP Left in seats which has a Leftist lean then LDP-KP could face significant losses.

The speed that Koike is putting all this together is quite impressive as long as it works on the ground.

JRP is merely renaming of ORA which split off from JIP in 2015.  JIP itself which without ORA are merely old DPJ and YP defectors anyway merged with DPJ to from DP to be part of the DP Right.  This bloc of ex-JIP but now DP MP will all certainly pass the HP ideological test and be able to run on HP ticket.

On why the DP Right leadership which is currently in charge of DP choose to merge their party into HP I wrote on this before.  It has to do with the DP/DPJ Right belief that LDP can only be beaten with a LDP schism that the DP/DPJ Right will merge with and defeat LDP once and for all.  Question has always been which variation of LDP splinters is that one true "The Party."

So what kind off party does Ōmura Hidea belong to or is he into Koikes party? He is ex LDP or? Does JRP stand on its own or merging into Koikes party? What happened to the other revisionist party the Party for Japanese Kokoro?

JRP at most tactical alliance with HP especially in places like 兵庫(Hyōgo) (where both DP and JRP have strength but only the sum of the two have chance to avoid a LDP clean sweep) in addition to 大阪(Osaka).  PJK's leadership have joined HP so I suspect that party is dead. 

Koike's 3 Governor summit

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It seems they have agreed on HP-JRP alliance in Tokyo and Osaka where in Osaka HP will back JRP in most seats and perhaps run in a seat or two with JRP backing.  The opposite in Tokyo.  In Osaka JRP historically also has a separate alliance with KP where it does not run against KP candidates.  I wonder if this deal covers those seats.  Also I wonder if HK will have a similar deal with KP in Tokyo. KP is an ally of JRP in Osaka at the prefecture level, same with HP in Tokyo.

One of the reasons Koike is working with DP for a merger is that it cost around $30K deposit for each candidate that runs.  Ergo HP needs cash to run a significant number of candidates.  DP's merger (excluding various Left DP MPs) with HP not only gives it a DP candidate where HP has nothing, it also comes with Rengo support and more importantly, cash to pay this deposit.

It seems Rengo will back most DP candidates that will run under the HP banner but will also back DP candidates that does not join but go off on their own.  This is an implicit endorsement of the HP-DP merger. 

What about Aichi) 大村 秀章(Ōmura Hideaki) then?

No idea.  Will wait to find out more details.  Most likely an HP-TCJ-JRP alliance in Aichi.

ex-DP and now HP MP 細野 豪志(Hosono Gōshi) was one of the first DP defectors that started the flood. 

Here he is in Sept 2015

Saying "There is no choice but to abolish the Security Law! The opposition bloc of DP-SDP-PLP-JCP will jointly fight this Law!"
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Here he is yesterday Sept 2017 as a member of HP

"The Security Law should be kept in place"
()

TCJ?

TCJ - Tax Cuts Japan.  It is a DPJ 愛知(Aichi) Right-wing Libertarian splinter.  It is pretty strong in Nagoya and is an ally of JRP since 2016.

There are reports of disquiet within the ranks of the various local LDP branches on the news of DP-HP merger and now a HP-JRP alliance.  There are voices that pretty much saying "What have Abe done to us?  This could get bad."  It seems to be reaching levels that LDP leadership had to ask the local LDP branches to maintain discipline and stay united.

The Osaka branch of the LDP is also coming out demanding that Abe openly attack JRP now that JRP is forming an alliance with HP.  The Osaka branch of LDP is very hostile to JRP and would even ally with JCP to fight JRP.  By the same token Abe has always been fairly close to Hashimoto and JRP which is a source of conflict between Abe and the Osaka LDP.  The Osaka LDP is now pretty much saying "we cannot effectively fight this election unless Abe comes out swinging against JRP."

In the Tokyo LDP a sense of doom prevails as many predict a total wipe-out by HP now HP roped in both DP and JRP.

Of course to some extent this might be good for the LDP as there will be no complacency now but LDP might need to fight a high turnout election.

Koike to collaborate with key Osaka politicians in election
Saturday, September 30, 2017 10:23 AM
OSAKA, Sept. 30 Kyodo
Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike said Saturday she has agreed with Osaka Gov. Ichiro Matsui that their political parties will cooperate in the Oct. 22 general election, a move that will raise pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition.
Under the agreement, Koike's recently launched Kibo no To (party of hope) will not field candidates in Osaka constituencies while the Japan Innovation Party, headed by Matsui, will refrain from doing so in Tokyo.
Koike held a press conference with Matsui and Aichi Gov. Hideaki Omura, who governs the area around Nagoya in central Japan, to announce they are sharing some policy goals including breaking away from nuclear power and revising the Constitution to expand the authority of local governments.
But the governors of the nation's three biggest prefectures said they will not run in the lower house election, campaigning for which will start Oct. 10.
Matsui said his and Koike's parties "are almost united in terms of policies," adding that his party will seek to elect lawmakers through proportional representation in Tokyo.
He also said he will not refrain from standing candidates in prefectures other than Tokyo and Osaka, and may compete with Koike's party in other parts of the country.
The lower house seats are contested through a mix of constituencies and proportional representation.
Their collaboration amounts to a united opposition front between Koike's party and the main opposition Democratic Party to challenge the dominance of the coalition led by Abe's Liberal Democratic Party.
Earlier in the week, the Democratic Party decided to effectively disband and merge with Kibo no To.

Even the media can't keep up with the Hashists' name changes.

Looks like PJK will continue on under the leadership of Upper House MP 中野 正志(Nakano Masashi) after PJK leader 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) joined HP.  I doubt PJK will get more than 0.5% if it even bothers running.

I noticed that Kyodo refers to JRP still as Japan Innovation Party a few days ago as well.  I looked into this and it seems there is not official English name as JRP.

Here is JRP (2012-2014) wiki link in Japanese which has it "日本維新の会"
https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E7%B6%AD%E6%96%B0%E3%81%AE%E4%BC%9A_(2012-2014)

and here is its English wiki link where it is called Japan Restoration Party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Restoration_Party

But for the 2016 version of the party the link in Japanese it is still called "日本維新の会"
https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E7%B6%AD%E6%96%B0%E3%81%AE%E4%BC%9A_(2016-)

but its English wiki link it is called "Nippon Ishin no Kai"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nippon_Ishin_no_Kai

which means it has no English name.  Ergo Kyodo figured "those foreigners won't keep up with stuff so lets just called it as Japan Innovation Party which is the name from 2014-2015 and call it a day."

BTW, here is the Japanese wiki link of the evolution of Japan's Third Pole parties since 2008

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https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Koike-campaign-joined-by-Osaka-Aichi-governors-for-October-election

It seems that Nikkei also refers to JRP as JIP.  In its English version of the "Three Governor" summit news.  Sigh.

It seems as part of the HP-JRP alliance HP will not run any candidates in 兵庫(Hyōgo) and let JRP have a free hand there.  Might as well.  DP and JRP historically evenly split the anti-LDP vote there last couple of election cycles so LDP was going to have a clean sweep of the seats there anyway.  Might as well just back JRP across the board and see what happens.  Maybe JRP might pick up a seat or two.  A problem here is that HP already nominated a couple of candidates in Hyōgo already so I am not sure how they work this out.  I doubt these HP candidates would withdraw. 

HP's first campaign ad.  Mostly about Koike taking on a political establishment dominated by old men.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4c2KZ-f-P8

Kyodo poll

Abe cabinet approval   40.6(-4.4)/46.2(+4.9)

Who do you support for PM   Abe 45.9  Koike 33.0

Constitutional change for/against 34.0/53.4

PR vote

LDP   24.1（-2.9）
KP     4.9（+0.3）
JRP    2.4（+0.2）
PJK    0.4（+0.4）
HP    14.8（+8.6）
DP      ー （-8.0）
LP      0.3（+0.2）
SDP   0.1（-0.2）
JCP 　4.9（+1.4）

LDP lost some ground to HP while  most of DP support went to HP even as a portion seems to have gone JCP.  Overall makes sense.  Abe approval fall has to be worrying for LDP-KP.

History of Kyodo PR polls and actual results

using  https://www41.atwiki.jp/giinsenkyo/pages/44.html

2013  Upper House  1) 28.8   2) 31.1   3) 29.8   4) 30.6  -> actual result 34.74%
2014  Lower House  1) 25.3   2) 28.0   3) 28.0               -> actual result 33.11%
2016  Upper House  1) 28.9   2) 27.2                             -> actual result 35.91%
2017  Lower House  1) 27.0   2) 24.1                             -> actual result ???

Looks like LDP PR vote is headed to the (30-33) range.  2016 LDP over-performance seems to be associated with the relative weakness of DP's brand so a lot of undecided went to LDP.  This time should be enough with KP's 13-13.5 vote share for a solid victory but most likely will miss 2/3 majority.

Looks like there are several efforts by the DP Left to quit DP and form a new party by mid week.  They might have the funds able get themselves on the PR ballot in some regions like 北海道(Hokkaido) and 東北(Tohoku).  This can only work if they unite their efforts.  If there ends up being several of these DP Left successor parties then this will go nowhere.  We will see.

Sounds logical. I suprised how the Japanese centre-left merged into a centre-right conservative parti like Koikes.

In 岡山(Okayama), 岡山市(Okayama City) Central district Council by-election this Sunday.

LDP       47.4%  (Wins)
CP           8.3%  (LDP decentralization regional splinter - somewhat close to JRP)
DP         24.9%
JCP        19.4%

Back in 2015 the Central district results were

            Contested    Won      Vote share
LDP            5             3              40.3%
KP              2             2              17.6%
CP              2             1                6.9%
DPJ             2             2             23.8%
JCP             1             1             10.6%

KP seems to be not to be actively working for LDP this time around.  But overall DP's vote share is holding up while LDP is slipping relative to 2015.  What is obvious is the JCP surge.

DP MP 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) which has become the de facto leader of the DP Left has indicated he will form a new party for those DP MPs that choose not to join HP.  The new Party's name will most likely be 民主党 or Democratic Party.  It seems Edano will be holding talks with DP leader Maehara as well as HP to see what can be done to accommodate as much DP MPs as possible within HP and failing that at least have some sort of tactical alliance between the new party (most likely called DPJ?) and HP.

武蔵野市(Musashino City) of Tokyo City Council by-election this Sunday had a shock where JCP nearly beats LDP 1-on-1.

LDP      50.4%  (wins)
JCP       49.6%

There was a by-election for mayor for 武蔵野市(Musashino City)  as well and it was

DP-SDP-LP-JCP    65.6% (wins)
LDP                    34.4%

JX poll in Tokyo on PR vote

()

HP     29  (+1)
LDP   28  (-11)
JCP    10  (-4)
KP       5  (-1)

Much more undecided now.  There seems to be some shift from LDP toward HP but some core HP supporters disappointed that Koike might jump back to national politics after she got a massive mandate in the Tokyo Prefecture elections in July.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/01/national/politics-diplomacy/leading-kibo-no-member-says-koike-led-party-unlikely-take-power-lower-house-election/#.WdFmH1tSyUl

HP is pretty much admitting that it will not defeat LDP this election and only in 2021 will HP hope to overthrow LDP.  HP is pretty much trapped.  To have the number of viable candidates to make a HP majority even possible HP pretty much have to take in all DP candidates including those on the DP Left.  But to do that HP makes itself vulnerable to the charge that it is an opportunistic party only interested in power.   HP is mostly targeting around 250 candidates overall out 465 seats available.

()

So HP has taken the road of relative ideological purity and mostly accept there will be some sort of DP Left party outside of HP.  I think some sort of HP tactical alliances with this new DP Left party would be wise where HP can back the DP Left in districts it has no hope of winning, mostly in 北海道(Hokkaido) and 東北(Tohoku).

Of course this key fact is the reason that it seems Koike will not quit her Tokyo governor position to run for the Lower House.  The main risk on the other side is that by 2021 the novelty value of Koike could have run past.  The ideal time for Koike to strike would be in the 2018  Lower House elections when she has managed to recruit a bloc of quality candidates across Japan.  So while it seems Abe's risky move might cost him a bunch of seats the alternative of a 2018 election might be worse for Abe.

In 山梨(Yamanashi) we also have a by-election for 山梨市(Yamanashi City) mayor that became a swing against LDP.  It ended up being

DP-SDP    55.1%  (wins)
LDP          44.9%

Back in 2014 it was

LDP          51%   (wins)
DP-SDP     49%

Why?

Looks like HP will announce around 210 candidates tomorrow.  80 are novices and 130 are from DP.  A bunch of heavyweight DP MPs including former PM 菅直人(Kan Naoto) and 野田佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko) as well as DP Left leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) and former DPJ leader 海江田 万里(Kaieda Banri), 岡田 克也 (Okada Katsuya) will not be on the list of approved candidates.  

List of DP heavyweights not on the HP list
()

In addition to being top leaders in DP/DPJ which HP does not want to inherit most of them are from Tokyo/Tokyo suburbs or Osaka where HP feels that it has enough strength not to have to rely on DP (Tokyo and suburbs) or had ceded to JRP (like Osaka).

It is a quirk of the PR ballot.  People can either check off a box for the PR ballot or write the name of the party.  What the party is known as in the general public would work.  So if someone wrote 自民 for LDP instead of the official name of the party 自由民主党 that would be fine.  So if the new party is called 民主党 people who are used to writing down 民主 (or Democratic) would be counted toward this new party.  

Of course the opposite logic could work as well since DPJ/DP has a negative image from the 2009-2012 DPJ administration. But if they go with 民主党 then the DP Left feels that there are residue support the 民主 brand has they can cash in on.

The party that DP Left leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) will form will be called 立憲民主党 or Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP I guess).  It will almost certainly be allied with SDP and JCP.

Also it seems that the far left co-leader of LP, 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō), who Ozawa let into LP back in early 2015 to make sure PLP has 5 MPs will refuse to enter into HP along with Ozawa.  So some form of LP will continue under Yamamoto's leadership.  This rump LP party will be part of this Leftist alliance.

ANN poll

Abe approval/disapproval 36.9(-4.4)/46.3(+6.7)

()

Note this is party support and not PR so DP is in there (change on Mid Sept) which is really just LDP and DP losing support to HP

LDP  39.7  (-6.5)
KP     4.6   (+1.1)
JRP    2.8   (+1.0)
HP     9.6   (+9.6)
DP     7.1   (-4.2)
SDP   1.9   (+1.1)
JCP    5.8  (+0.1)

Hokkaido Times poll for 北海道(Hokkaido)

Abe approval/disapproval  37(-4)/61(+4)

Party support
LDP   24.4（-0.3）
KP   　3.4（-0.3）
NPD    0.9（-0.9）
JRP     0.2（-0.8）
HP      2.7（new）
DP     14.3（-1.0）
SDP    0.6（+0.1）
JCP     4.1（-1.5）

PR vote

LDP    25
KP    　6
NPD     5
JRP      1
HP     29
SDP     1
JCP      8

I am surprised how much of the DP base here has gone over to HP when I expected more to flow to JCP.  Anyway, if the new LD Left splinter DCP gets on the PR ballot I think 9%-10% of the HP vote will flow back to DCP.  NPD seems to be cannibalizing the LDP vote.

福島(Fukushima) poll also has HP ahead in PR

()

Abe approval/disapproval   27.8 (-2.8 )/54.4(+2.7)

PR vote

LDP    23.9
KP    　3.8
JRP     1.4
PJK     0.6
HP     30.6
LP       1.0
SDP     2.8
JCP      8.2

Is it too early to say "Koikementum"?

Yes.  Note that 北海道(Hokkaido) and 福島(Fukushima) have very anti-LDP leans.  What these polls show us is that the Center-Left base of the DP seems to be willing to back HP just to beat LDP.  If CDP gets in there I am not sure they will stick with HP since there will be a Center-Left non-JCP alternative.  On the other hand these polls does seem to show that the DP Left voting bloc can and will vote HP tactically to defeat LDP.    If so HP is making the right call in rejecting DP Left candidates in areas of HP strength and go with novice candidates that can pull in LDP votes while watching the DP Left vote roll in as long there is no CDP candidate in the race.

Latest NHK poll

Abe approval/disapproval  37(-7)/44(+8)

Party support

()

LDP   30.8 (-6.9)
KP      3.8 (+0.7)
JRP     1.0 (-0.1)
HP      5.4 (new)
DP      3.9 (-2.8 )
LP       0.3 (---)
SDP    0.6 (+0.1)
JCP     3.3 (+0.7)

Write-up on Aoki index

The latest NHK poll has Aoki index at 67.8. 

The history of Aoki index seems to be if it is 70-80 for LDP then it is a marginal victory, while 80+ is a LDP landslide and below 70 is a LDP setback if not defeat.    A lot would depend on opposition unity.

There will be another NHK poll a week before the election. I suspect LDP support will rise a couple of % as support rises for all parties right before an election.  So it seems LDP will head into the election with
 an Aoki index in the low 70s which would imply a setback if the opposition is unified or a smallish win of the opposition is splintered.  It seems a lot would depend on how strong the new CDP gets.

ex-DP MPs that have a centrist or center-right background but rejected by HP due to the fact that they have had leadership roles in DPJ/DP/JIP have opted to run as independents and not join CDP.  They are former DPJ/DP leader 岡田 克也(Okada Katsuya), former PM  野田佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko), former JIP leader 江田 憲司(Eda Kenji) and very likely former JIP leader 松野 頼久(Matsuno Yorihisa.)  It is possible they might even run without HP or CDP-JCP candidates in their districts.   Of course not having these Centrist DP MPs in their ranks does limit CDP's appeal and reach.

It seems HP is so strapped for cash, even after the infusion of DP cash, that Koike is charging 30K Yen ($270) for anyone that want a picture to be taken with her.

Both LP Lower House MPs which including Ozawa will run as independents with backing from HP.  This is the end of LP although LP co-leader and Upper House MP 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) who is from the Far Left might continue on leading the party or just revert to being an independent again.   

What are the DP members of the House Of Councillors like Renho doing?

Abe approval/disapproval curve now around -5%

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NHK poll did have one good new for LDP.  In it it has 53% certain to turn out and 30% possibility to turn out.  Back in 2014 the sane NHK poll had 57% certain to turn out and 29% possibility to turn out with the final turnout at a record low of 52%.  To be fair election day 2014 had a snowstorm which will not repeat itself this time around.  But if turnout is 52% this time LDP-KP can for sure win a landslide and very likely 2/3 majority just like 2014.  CDP coming into being does mean that turnout should be higher this time around.  If turnout gets above 60% then I can see LDP getting in some trouble. 

Same poll has for PR vote

LDP    29
KP       6
JRP      2
HP     14
LP       1
SDP     1
JCP      6

Back in 2014 final ANN poll for PR and real results

LDP    34.1 -> 33.11
KP       5.8 -> 13.71
PFG     1.1 ->   2.65
JIP      5.3 ->  15.72
DPJ    12.6 ->  18.33
PLP      1.5 ->    1.93
SDP     1.5 ->    2.46
JCP      6.6 ->  11.37

I think wait an see.  For now DP is not gone.  After the election DP will merge into HP.  Some DP Upper House members then can join CDP or just become independent. 

There are media reports of rumors from LDP that an internal LDP survey of all prefectures indicates that LDP could lose up to 100 seats (which would put LDP-KP just short of majority.)  The internal LDP joke going around is that "Abe was looking to fight the Battle of Pearl Harbor but is getting the Battle of Midway."  I am doubtful of these internal LDP projections.  They always underestimate LDP changes significantly in order to shake the LDP voter out of their complacency. 

Overall the news cycle last 24 hours have been moving against Koike.

It seems Kokie has decided not to contest Lower House polls which I imagine would break some of the HP momentum.  That has not stopped 2 members of her Tokyo TPFA MLAs from quitting TPFA to protest Koike making a move to create a national party HP without consultation with her Tokyo based TPFA.

HP released their first list of 192 candidates of which 110 of them have DP backgrounds.  It does seem that some of these DP candidates are balking at actually running since all of them have to sign a  HP document indicating that they support the New Security Law of 2015 which most of them are on record as opposing in 2015.  It seems that there will be another wave of HP candidates so the total will most likely exceed 233 candidates so nominally HP could win a majority.  Of course with Koike not running HP is pretty much conceding that LDP-KP will win with the only issue by how much.

3 LP members are being nominated by HP although both existing Lower House LP MPs including Ozawa will run as independents with de facto HP support. 

I would think that Renhō would either be an Independent, or join HP, her being part of Maehara's faction after all.

Reading over various Japanese discussion boards it seems most projections fall in the following range

LDP  260-300 seats
KP     30-35 seats
JRP    10-20 seats
HP    50-100 seats
CDP   10-25 seats
JCP    20-25 seats
Ind.   10-20 seats (SDP will have a couple, 3-5 LDP rebels, rest ex-DP or ex-LP independents)

CDP?! Did I miss something?!

Center-left remnants of DP that aren't merging into HP. The "Constitutional Democratic Party" (i.e., opposed to changes to the constitution).

New opposition party gathers unlikely momentum on Twitter
Tuesday, October 3, 2017 09:52 AM
TOKYO, Oct. 3 Kyodo
A just-formed political party that splintered off Japan's largest opposition has garnered a much stronger following than its similarly young, high-profile rival headed by the popular Tokyo governor, at least on social media.
The official Twitter account, handled @CDP2017 and set up on Monday by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan led by former Democratic Party big-shot Yukio Edano, had more than 77,000 followers as of late Tuesday night.
With just 2,400 followers, @kibounotou, the week-old official account of the Party of Hope and spearheaded by Tokyo's popular first female governor Yuriko Koike, trails well behind.
Edano, former chief Cabinet secretary when the Democratic Party's predecessor was in power, set up the pro-Constitution party as a home for Democratic Party members unlikely to be accepted by Koike's party due to differing political beliefs on national security and an amendment to the pacifist Constitution.
The Democratic Party, which had 87 seats in the House of Representatives before its dissolution last week, has split into three groups -- those joining the Party of Hope, those opting for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and those running as independents in the Oct. 22 general election.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan's 77,000 Twitter followers are more than three times the number of the Democratic Party, at 23,000, and the number surpasses 71,000 for the long-standing Komeito party, which had 35 seats and formed the ruling coalition with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party.
The LDP, which held 287 seats in the 475-member lower house, has some 110,000 followers.

Those don't seem like high enough numbers to mean anything. Clearly most Japanese people do not follow politicians are twitter. Additionally, those could just be bots.

Out the 87 current DP MPs

43 will run for HP
14 will run for CDP
16 will run as independents (most of them with de facto joint HP-CDP candidates)
8 are still unclear (most of them will most likely end up running as HP or ind. (de facto HP-CDP candidates)
6 will retire

will CDP maintain the alliance with JCP?

Yes.  It it actually quite complicated.  In some prefectures there might even be de facto HP-CDP-JCP alliance to take on LDP.  Will write about it soon.

New Asahi poll  (diff on 9/26-27 poll)

()

Abe approval 40(+4)/38(-1)

PR vote

LDP      35 (+3）
KP   　　7（+1）
JRP　　  4（+1）
HP  　　12（-1）
CDP       7（new）
LP          1 (-)
SDP       1 (-1)
JCP　　  6（+1）

Looks like some of the DP vote that went to HP came to CDP.

Looking over the candidates that HP and CDP have nominated one can map out what their relative strategies are.

For HP it is about outsourcing its competition with LDP outside of 東京(Tokyo), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 愛知(Aichi), and 大阪(Osaka) to DP.  HP mostly took in DP wholesale in those regions.  For 大阪(Osaka) HP outsourced the work to JRP in return for JPR backing HP in Tokyo.  In  東京(Tokyo), 神奈川(Kanagawa), and 愛知(Aichi) the HP's position is "It is Koike's way or the high way."  DP in these 3 regions are welcome to join HP but the local HP branch (in 愛知(Aichi) it is HP-TJC) is in charge.  Anyone from DP who does not accept those terms are not accepted.  As a result HP is running a bunch of political novices and some DP defectors in these 3 prefectures.  It is in these 3 prefecture that victory for Koike will be determined.  If HP does well outside these regions then one can argue that it was the local DP plus the Koike brand that did well.  If HP does well in these 3 prefectures then it shows that the Koike brand is enough for victory. 

What is at stake is control of DP after the election. If Koike does well in these 3 prefectures then the rest of the DP will mostly fall in line.  If not then many of the DP turned HP winners in the rest of Japan might merge with CDP.

For CDP it is about running some quality DP candidates that that HP did not take in but they are going all out to take on HP in Tokyo.  So in Tokyo it will be LDP vs HP vs CDP across the board which gives LDP a fighting chance.  In 神奈川(Kanagawa) and  愛知(Aichi) CDP is also running a lot of candidates although there are some CDP-HP cooperation in some districts.  CDP's strategy is the opposite of HP. It is determined to, beyond the goal of defeating LDP-KP, keep HP contained in 東京(Tokyo), 神奈川(Kanagawa) and 愛知(Aichi) so after the election CDP can claim to be the true DP and then get enough DP turn HP defectors to turn HP into a Tokyo regional party.

There are a bunch of ex-DP MPs that one reason or another HP decided not to take in. For most of them neither CDP nor HP are running candidates against them so in de facto terms these candidates are becoming joint HP-CDP candidates against the LDP.

In 北海道(Hokkaido) where the local DP branch completely went over to DCP there are de facto seat adjustments between DCP and HP.  In 新潟(Niigata) there seems to be an attempt to have ex-DP candidates run as independents with backing from CDP HP and JCP.  Same in 沖縄(Okinawa).  In  三重(Mie) there seems to be the same but without JCP. 

So in many places HP and DCP are de facto working together even as in Tokyo it is all out war between them.

In 大阪(Osaka) it seems DCP is running a bunch of candidates which is hurting JRP in its battle with LDP.    While in 兵庫(Hyōgo), I am not sure what happen since there was suppose to be a HP-JRP alliance but in reality they are running a lot of candidates against each other so LDP should sweep here again just like 2014.

Overall it seems that between HP, DCP and ex-DP independents they should win most seats that DPJ and non-Osaka JIP won in 2014.   I expect the opposition bloc to make gains in 北海道(Hokkaido) and 新潟(Niigata) but perhaps lose ground in  愛知(Aichi) given the split between HP and DCP there.  東京(Tokyo)and  神奈川(Kanagawa) are wild cards.  If the Koike brand takes off there then LDP will lose ground despite DCP cutting into the anti-LDP vote.  Given HP is backing JRP in Osaka and DCP being relatively weak there I would also expect JRP to gain ground there relative to JIP in 2014.

Overall it seems LDP-KP is heading toward a solid victory but losing a couple dozen seats to take them below 2/3 majority.   

Why do HP have strength in Kanagawa?

Is CDP or DCP correct? You used both in your previous post.

Kanagawa is a Tokyo suburb and pretty much shares the same media market so the Koike brand is strong there being that it is strong in Tokyo.   Sorry it is CDP (Constitutional Democratic Party).  I think in theory it should be CDPJ for Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan which is its official English name.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Democratic_Party_of_Japan

It seems all the 110+ DP candidates running under the HP banner are paying their own $26K deposit fees as HP is so short of money.  Sort of fits my narrative of HP outsourcing the anti-LDP campaign to DP in most of Japan.  Of course what this also says is, like I said, if Koike bombs in place like Tokyo then all these ex-DP elected MP owns Koike nothing and all will go their own way or join CDP if CDP does well and CDP becomes the new DP with a mouth eaten Tokyo and Kanagawa wing.

週刊文春(Weekly Bunshun) magazine projection.  Very negative on LDP.  LDP-KP reduced to 249 which is barely above majority.  I generally do not buy it.  You have the buy the magazine to read details so this sort of shocking projection is meant to get people to buy the magazine.  

()


              District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP          155        59       214             30.5%
KP               9         25        34             13.5%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP            11         16        27             11.0%
HP             63         38      101              19.5%
CDP           13         15        28              10.0%
SDP             1           1         2                2.5%
JCP              1         21       22              12.0%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(Oppn)  31           0       31      (ex-DP ex-LP or plus various anti-LDP elements)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Again, PR vote share seems plausible although I would say JRP PR vote share is overestimated.   The district results is only possible with a massive HP-CDP-JCP election coordination and tactical voting effort which does not seem possible.

General Secretary of KP indicated that if LDP-KP loses its majority KP will consider an alliance with HP-JRP to form a HP-JRP-KP ruling bloc "to provide good stable government."

In Japan you have to write the name of the candidate you are voting for versus checking off a list of candidates.

()

()


This is why if you run as an independent you better be sure you have name recognition.

The day after HP nominated 192 candidates, 2 of them were withdrawn (both choosing to run as independents) and 9 more were nominated to a net number of 199 HP candidates.

Seldom has there been a more fitting acronym for a new party than HP.

Also, DP seemed to be getting Macronned, but with the creation of CDP they may be a bit better than Hamon at fighting back, we'll see.

Anyway, fascinating stuff.

Now I seen the prelim candidates (there will be more) I can take a first crack at what the FPTP seats would look like for LDP-KP by prefecture in best and worst cases for LDP-KP.  I will have the 2014 LDP-KP seat count from 2014 but take into account that several Independents and FPG winners have joined LDP and I will count them retroactively as LDP wins.  

Prefecture              Seats         2014 LDP-KP       2017 LDP-KP
                                                   wins                  wins
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
北海道Hokkaido         12                    9                    3-10
青森   Aomori             3                     4                        3    (Aomori lost a seat from 2014)            
岩手    Iwate              3                     1                        1    (Iwate lost a seat from 2014)        
宮城   Miyagi              6                     5                     4-5        
秋田   Akita                3                     3                     1-3    
山形   Yamagata         3                     3                     2-3    
福島   Fukushima       5                      3                    2-3                  
茨城   Ibaraki             7                     5                    5-6                            
栃木   Tochigi             5                     4                     3-4
群馬   Gunma            5                      5                     4-5      
埼玉   Saitama         15                    13                   8-13                      
千葉   Chiba             13                    11                   9-12              
神奈川Kanagawa       18                   15                  11-16          
山梨   Yamanashi       2                      1                        1
東京   Tokyo             25                    23                   4-22
新潟   Niigata             6                      5                    2-3                        
富山   Toyama            3                      3                       3                              
石川   Ishikawa          3                      3                    2-3    
福井   Fukui               2                      2                       2    
長野   Nagano            5                      3                       3                          
岐阜   Gifu                 5                      5                       5    
静岡   Shizuoka          8                      6                    5-6    
愛知   Aichi              15                      8                    6-9            
三重   Mie                  4                     3                        2  (Mie lost a seat from 2014)          
滋賀   Shiga               4                     4                    2-4    
京都   Kyoto               6                     4                    2-3
大阪   Osaka            19                    13                    9-12
兵庫   Hyōgo            12                    10                  11-12
奈良   Nara                3                      3                    2-3   (Nara lost a seat from 2014)        
和歌山Wakayama       3                      2                       2
鳥取 Tottori                2                      2                      2
島根   Shimane           2                     2                       2    
岡山   Okayama          5                     5                       5
広島   Hiroshima         7                     6                    6-7
山口   Yamaguchi        4                     4                       4                              
徳島   Tokushima        2                      2                      2
高知   Kōchi               2                      2                      2    
香川   Kagawa            3                     2                    1-2                            
愛媛   Ehime              4                      4                      4                                
福岡   Fukuoka         11                    11                10-11    
佐賀   Saga                2                      1                     1                  
長崎   Nagasaki          3                      3                  2-3                                
熊本   Kumamoto        4                     5                  3-4   (Kumamoto lost a seat from 2014)    
大分   Ōita                  3                     2                  1-2
宮崎   Miyazaki           3                      3                    3      
鹿児島Kagoshima       4                       4                    3   (Kagoshima lost a seat from 2014)    
沖縄   Okinawa          4                       0                 0-1

So overall LDP-KP will most either gain a couple of seats to losing around 35 seats.  Most likely is somewhere in the middle.  On PR vote most likely it will be flat for LDP-KP or perhaps lose a couple of seats.  So medium guess for LDP-KP is to lose around 20 seats overall.

The election will be decided, as I explained before, in 北海道(Hokkaido), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 東京(Tokyo), 愛知(Aichi), 大阪(Osaka) and 埼玉(Saitama).  埼玉(Saitama) is also a Tokyo suburb prefecture which is the most anti-LDP of the Tokyo suburb prefectures.  There most of the DP have merged into HP and the Koike brand is playing out where there so the LDP is vulnerable if the Koike brand can translate into a swing away from LDP.

In 北海道(Hokkaido) a lot depends on if the de facto HP-CDP-JCP alliance actually holds on the ground and how much of a pro-LDP swing can LDP get from NPD going with LDP this time versus going with DPJ in 2014.

The big unknown is 東京(Tokyo).  It will be a 3 way battle between LDP-KP, HP=JRP and CDP-JCP.  Not clear how much of a swing Koike is able to generate from the LDP vote base in Tokyo toward her and how much of the old DP vote which defected en mass to Koike's TPFA will go to CDP-JCP.  Also unclear how the KP vote will go.  A lot of the HP candidates are total unknowns which could be a good thing if the election is a change election.  Results totally up in the air between a complete LDP collapse to a Koike meltdown.

Despite PJK leader 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) defecting to HP, PJK will continue on and will run on the PR slate of the election.  PJK will participate in the party leaders debate which will feature LDP KP PJK JRP HP CDP SDP and JCP.

Kobe News did a poll for 神戸(Kobe) which is in 兵庫(Hyōgo) before DP merged into HP and the creation of CDP but after Koike came out to lead HP

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65% oppose dissolution of Diet

PR vote are

LDP　　　　　　22.5％
KP      　　　　　2.8％
JRP                   8.8%
HP       　　　　16.7％
DP      　　　　　4.2％
SDP    　　　　　2.2％
LP                     0.7%
JCP  　　　　　　9.7％

If these results comes close to what is going on then this is ominous for LDP.  It shows both HP, JRP and JCP gaining ground and LDP-KP losing ground in a prefecture which should be a lock for LDP-KP.  Granted Kobe is not the same as 兵庫(Hyōgo) but I would be concerned if I were LDP to see these numbers.

ニコニコ (NicoNico) which is Japanese version of Youtube came out with their first projection. Note that in 2014 and 2016 elections NicoNico were for both elections the most accurate of all the "professional" projections.

They have a solid LDP-KP victory but barely missing 2/3 majority even adding in pro-LDP independents. 

()

              District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP          202        64       266             33.0%
KP               9         25        34             13.5%
JRP            10         16        26             11.0%
HP             39         38        77             19.5%
CDP             6         11       17                7.5%
SDP             1           1         2                2.5%
JCP              0         21       21              12.0%
Ind(LDP)      6           0         6      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(Oppn)  16           0       16      (ex-DP ex-LP or plus various anti-LDP elements)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465


Just like 週刊文春(Weekly Bunshun) projection they are pretty positive on the JRP PR vote which continues to be a surprise for me.  The PR vote shares looks right although I think HP and CDP would do a bit better and LDP and JRP should do a bit worse. 

ニコニコ (NicoNico) track record on projections and actual result

2013
LDP   64->65
DPJ   16->17
JRP     7->8
KP    11->11
YP      8->8
PLP    2->0
JCP    8->8
 

2014
LDP  289->291
DPJ    72->73
KP     35->35
JIP     34->41
JCP    18->21
PFG    10->2
PLP      4->2


2016
LDP  55 -> 56
DP   30  -> 32
KP   12 -> 14
JCP  10  -> 6
ORA   7 -> 7

Given the strong record NicoNico has on predicting seat counts for LDP-KP in the past we should really view LDP-KP at around 300 seats to be the baseline prediction for now.

In the 12 seats of 北海道(Hokkaido) it seems the disparate opposition parties worked out several separate deals to take on LDP.  

CDP and HP seems to worked out a deal where HP will run in 2nd 9th and 12th and back CDP everywhere else.  HOnly in 4th district will HP and CDP face each other.  CDP also worked out a deal with JCP where JCP will run in 2nd 7th 9th and 12th but back CDP everywhere else. It seems HP has indirectly agreed not to run in 7th where JCP is running.

So in 2nd 9th and 12th it will be LDP-KP vs HP vs JCP.  7th will be LDP-KP vs JCP.  And the rest will be LDP-KP vs CDP 1-on-1.  So in 8 out of the 12 districts the non-JCP oppositon will take on the LDP-KP 1-on-1 in a prefecture where it is clear that LDP-KP fall significantly below 50%.

Similar deals are being worked out in other prefectures with anti-LDP leans such as 滋賀(Shiga), 沖縄(Okinawa), 新潟(Niigata), and 大分(Ōita). It is taking place in Tokyo as well but there it is all out war between CDP-JCP vs HP-JRP and of course against LDP-KP.

This reminds me a lot of 1989 India when Center-Left JD worked out separate deals with the Right wing BJP on the one hand and the Left Front on the other hand to take on INC.  So in many seats it is just INC vs JD while in other it is INC vs BJP vs Left Front.  INC was defeated in part because the disastrous INC vs JD vs BJP vs Left Front was avoided across the board.

島根(Shimane) branch of CDP merely just reused the old DP bus and did some re-painting of the bus sign

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to

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/japan-s-koike-says-she-may-tax-cash-reserves-of-large-companies

Japan Opposition Unveils 'Yurinomics' Platform to Challenge Abe

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s opposition party said it may impose taxes on large companies’ cash reserves and permanently rid Japan of nuclear power as it unveiled a slew of campaign promises on Friday ahead of an Oct. 22 election.

In a manifesto dubbed “Yurinomics” -- a counter to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” platform highlighted by large injections of liquidity -- Koike vowed to freeze a consumption tax increase, end discrimination against homosexuals and protect abandoned pets. Her Party of Hope plans to maintain Abe’s unprecedented monetary easing for the time being, while working with the Bank of Japan to seek a smooth exit strategy.

Would that include gay marriage?

RCP like political website go2senkyo.com had their own poll.  It was done around Oct 1 which was after Koike came out to lead HP but before DCP was created.

It had Abe Approval/Disapproval at 47/52.

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They also had them broken down by region.  Clearly Northern Abe is going against Abe while Southern Japan is pro-Abe.
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For PR vote it had

LDP ~35%
HP   ~30%

With Men LDP ~35 HP ~32 and women ~LDP 35 ~HP 27.  So clearly HP is attracting the men vote despite Koike's campaign to try to rope in the women's vote.

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In LDP strongholds, it seems HP are running candidates against Abe and his cronies but not against potential Abe rivals within the LDP.  It is a clear signal that she is out to get Abe but will work with LDP once Abe is out after getting a bloody nose from her.

Interesting film made in 2007 about a political novice running in a city council by-election in 神奈川 (Kanagawa) for the LDP in late 2005.  Gives a good idea what a candidate experience is like in Japan elections.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ea2Jm4EmkKE&t=2076s&list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&index=1

Very funny he keeps on campaigning on "reform" but never gets to talk about any policies and what "reform" means.  But that makes sense since elections are very personality oriented. 

No.  Not even JCP will support that.  The most extreme Left position would be JCP's position of backing civil unions. The main battle-lines on marriage in Japan right now are "should the law that enforces that a married couple must use the same last name be abolished to allow the wife to use her maiden last name."    Most of the LDP caucus is against and most of DP caucus are for.   

You know a country is backwards in marriage rights when a woman isn't even allowed to use her madien name.

To be fair the law is gender neutral.  It just stipulates that a married couple must use the same last name without indicating that it has to be the husbands.  In fact several challenges to the law as gender discrimination has been turned back by the high courts pretty much saying "the law does not specify which last name that has to be used ergo it does not discriminate against women."  There have been isolated cases where a married couple uses the wife's last name.   It comes from a classical Chinese practice called 入贅 or matrilocality where a wealthy family without a son hires a husband for their daughter with the stipulation that he and their children take on the last name of the wife's family.    The Japanese have the same thing and while it is rare it takes place.  The law is written to allow for this custom as well.

In 北海道(Hokkaido) due to de facto alliance between old Hokkaido LDP splinter NPD and LDP we have the spectacle of NPD founder 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) heading up thte NPD PR list while his daughter who joined LDP last year 鈴木貴子 (Suzuki Takako) heading up the LDP PR list.   鈴木貴子 (Suzuki Takako) ran in the 北海道(Hokkaido) 7th district in 2014 on the DPJ ticket given the DPJ-NPD alliance and lost but winning a PR seat.  She joined LDP hoping to run in the 7th district as the LDP candidate but the LDP incumbent from 2014 wanted to run for reelection so LDP negotiated a deal with 鈴木貴子 (Suzuki Takako)  where she will be at the top of the LDP PR list for 北海道(Hokkaido).

A couple of stories on Japanese women politicians with scandals. 

In 埼玉(Saitama) 4th district the LDP incumbent  豊田真由子(Toyoda Mayuko) had to resign from the LDP a few month ago when video footage were leaked which showed her verbally and physically abusing her hapless aide.  LDP has nominated a candidate for the district but she will run as an independent as a LDP rebel.  If she wins and under the LDP rule "if you win you are LDP" she would be readmitted to the party as if the scandal never took place.

In 愛知(Aichi) 7th district the DP incumbent 山尾 志桜里 (Yamao Shiori) is running as an inexpedient with de facto support from HP CDP and JCP in the sense that none of them are running a candidate.  She was given a top role in the DP a month ago and had to resign from that role and DP when it came out that she, who is married, was having an affair with another married man.  It seems that if she gets to take on the LDP candidate 1-on-1 most likely she will win and this scandal will be forgotten. 

Looks like long time LDP kingpin and heavyweight but now mostly has been, 中山 成彬(Nakayama Nariaki), husband of former PJK leader 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) was given a HP PR seat slot after both he and his wife left PJK to join HP.   He has expressed displeasure at not been given a district to run in and it seems might quit HP.

Yuriko Koike’s "12 zero" ‘zero policy’ pledges:

Zero nuclear power
Zero corporate cover ups
Zero corporate political donation
Zero children waiting for places in day care
Zero passive smoking
Zero packed commuter trains
Zero putting down of unwanted pets
Zero food waste
Zero violation of labour laws
Zero hay fever
Zero disabled and aged people unable to receive means of transport
Zero overhead power cables

She is also promising universal basic income (long term goal) and a tax on corporate balance sheets.

Sigh.   I cannot believe I have to back HP.  There is nothing for me to really back in this election.  Maybe JRP.  Too bad they cannot bring back YP.  Please let Abe get a bloody nose in this election so he can be kicked out of LDP leadership so I can go back to backing LDP.  

In the international context the fall of DP and merging into HP and part of it forming CDP fits with the narrative of the crisis of the Center-Left and the onslaught of the populist Right.  If you use my chart on PR vote share in Japan since 2000 grouped by bloc.  Even if we plug in the most pro-CDP guesstimates of their vote share in 2017 you still get the lowest vote share for the Center-Left + JCP since 2000 and in fact since WWII.  In fact it will be 3% worse than 2013 which was the peak of the Abe onslaught and 4% worse than 2012 at the peak of the JRP surge and the collapse of the DPJ government.

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       45.00              29.00             14.00            12.00

Night of Oct 8th there will be a debate of the 8 national party leaders (LDP KP PJK JRP HP CDP SDP JCP).  Abe and Koike will meet face to face.  CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) will have a chance to distinguish himself as a co-equal to Abe and Koike and create an impression that CDP-SDP-JCP is an alternative to LDP-KP and HP-JRP.

Still 3 days left before the nominating period closes.  It seems CDP-SDP-JCP has a goal not having duplicate candidates in any of the districts.  They also are targeting to back various ex-DP independents which in many situations are de facto backed by HP as well.   There still are a lot of them for now so there are lots of deal-making between the 3 parties over the next couple of days to get their candidates to stand down.

Joint campaign appearance between HP leader and Tokyo Governor Koike, JRP leader and Osaka governor 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) and TCJ (Aichi right wing libertarian DPJ splinter) leader and Nagoya mayor 河村 たかし.

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No LP?

Both of the LP diet members left and are running as independents.

Correct.  LP pretty much will merge into HP after the election.  It is for the better. Ozawa is always better as a backroom strategist than a front-line leader. 

National party leader debate.

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Seating arrangement similar to the GOP debate format.  Parties that poll higher sits in the middle (in this case it would be LDP HP KP JCP) followed by the rest (JRP CDP SDP PJK)
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Looks like Nariaki Nakayama representing the PJK there. So the PJK merger with Party of Hope is totally off?

It seems it was never really on.  I thought when PJK leader 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) defected to HP that it meant that PJK would disband or join HP.  It seems that it will go on alone.  It has no government funding so it must have wealthy donations  that keep it afloat. 

When is the final filing deadline?

10/10

Mainichi Sunday magazine (which is usually not that politically serious) came out with a poll

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that indicated a surge in support for CDP an fall in support for HP in Tokyo.  Namely CDP 13.5% HP 14.7% with 21.4% undecided.  Not clear what support for LDP KP and JCP are.

I hope it's right (not that I am putting any stock in it whatsoever...)

Yeah, as a rule one does not want to put too much stock in a poll that is being announced with a cartoon picture with spaceships.

There a new Space Battleship Yamato out?

On the contrary, I hope it become standard practice in all countries.

Out of the 289 seats CDP-SDP-JCP plus various ex-DP members have consolidated into 1 candidate in 241 of them.  In around 55 of those 241 seats HP is not running either so they become de facto joint opposition candidates to LDP.  In 5 seats this Left bloc are not running and in de facto terms back the HP candidate against LDP.  I think by 10/10 the goal is for CDP-SDP-JCP plus various ex-DP independents to from a front in all 289 seat (minus the 5 they leave to HP by themselves.)

Yomiuri  poll (diff from late Sept when HP was formed with Koike as leader but CDP not formed yet)

Abe approval 41(-2)/46(--)

Have hope for LDP Yes/No 41/43
Have hope for HP Yes/No  36/56
Hope hope for CDP Yes/No 28/64

PR vote

LDP     32 (-2)
KP        6 (-1)
JRP       3 (+1)
HP      13 (-6)
CDP      7 (new)
SDP      1 (--)
JCP       4 (-1)

Looks like CDP gains from everyone but especially HP which last poll pretty much pull in most of the DP vote.

Abe approval numbers a problem for LDP.

Ex-DP MP 原口 一博(Haraguchi Kazuhiro) of  佐賀(Saga) 1st district ran a good con on everyone.  Back in 2014 he barely won his seat DP 47.5% LDP 46.1% JCP 6.4%.  This time around he first agreed to run on the HP ticket knowing that is the best way to avoid a separate HP or JRP candidate.  Then a couple days before the nomination deadline he then broke with HP to run as an independent even though he indicated that he was leaving on friendly terms.  Then JCP withdrew its candidate as part of, what I am sure was a prior deal between Haraguchi and JCP.  So through various deals he triangulated  to a point where he will face the LDP candidate 1-on-1.

Koike open to backing PM from LDP.  This is the opposite of Koizumi's 2001 slogan "vote LDP so I can destroy LDP" where it is now Koike 2017 "vote for the anti-LDP to get a LDP government" 

Detailed version of this poll for Tokyo PR are

LDP    28.7%
KP       6.2%
JRP      1.3%
HP     14.7%
CDP   13.5%
SDP     1.6%
JCP    12.7%

Undecided 21.4%.  LDP-KP looks about right.  Poor result for HP and great result for CDP.  JCP also a bit higher than expected.

Probably an attempt by her to attract LDP voters, you know, to make the opposition more palatable.

Projection from 和子夫人(Madam Kazuko) who is famous for being the most accurate forecaster in 2009 but have been more off last few election cycles.  Her forecast has LDP KP and JCP doing poorly must imply she expect a turnout surge that helps HP CDP

              District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP          162         62      224             31.5%
KP               7         23        30             13.0%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              9         10        19               7.0%
HP             65         43      108              23.0%
CDP           14         21        35              12.5%
SDP             1           1         2                2.5%
JCP              0         15       15                9.5%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(Oppn)  26           0       26     (ex-DP ex-LP or plus various anti-LDP elements)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

On PR it feels right to me on a high turnout election although I still think HP and CDP are too high and JCP too low.   Just like other anti-LDP projections this seems to assume a very solid a tactical voting between the HP-JRP and CDP-SDP-JCP blocs at the grassroots level which I find unlikely.

Amazing that the DPJ are engaging in yet *another* harebrained scheme to oust the LDP. This'll work for sure though. Absolutely.

My current best guess on results.  LDP-KP loses seats in a higher turnout election (59%).  LDP-KP-NPD plus LDP rebels gets 287 out of 465 seats, a solid 10+ seats below 2/3 majority.  Some tactical voting between HP-JRP and CDP-SDP-JCP but not enough to win some key marginal seats.

              District    PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          189         61      250             31.8%
KP               9         23        32             12.7%
NPD             0           1         1               0.4%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              8         13       21                8.3%
HP             41         38        79              21.1%
CDP           13         21        34              11.9%
SDP             1           1         2                1.9%
JCP              1         18       19               11.0%
Ind(LDP)      4           0         4      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        2           0         2     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(DP)      19           0       19     (ex-DP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

So I see parties on taking a stance on the "Consumption tax raise". Is this the same consumption tax raise they were discussing 3 elections ago? Have they been putting it off that long? Or is this a new raise and they do it every couple of years?

Latest JX poll for Tokyo (confirming the CDP surge that Mainichi Sunday magazine reported)

LDP   29 (+1)
KP       6 (+1)
HP     18 (-11)
CDP   18(new)
JCP     7(-3)

CDP surge coming at the expense of both HP and JCP.

The consumption tax was 5%.  A law passed by DPJ and supported by LDP targeted raised that to 10% with it going to 8% in early 2014 and then 10% in early 2015.  This decision was critical in turning DPJ's 2012 defeat into a landslide defeat.   After the 2014 increase to 8% the economy fell into recession so Abe used it as an excuse to call and early election in late 2014 on the issue of delaying the 10% in early 2015.   He won and the tax increase from 8% to 10% was delayed to early 2017.  Then for the 2016 Upper House elections Abe ran on delaying that tax increase to early 2019 and won.  Now the debate is if the 2019 tax increase revenue should be used for child care (as opposed to deficit reduction) (LDP KP) or just canceled all together (HP JRP DCP JCP).

Professor 児玉克哉(Kodama Katsuya) who has a reasonable record as forecaster came out with his projection which has LDP falling below majority by itself although with LDP-KP with bare majority.
The high implied vote share for KP and JCP seems to indicate a lower turnout election where LDP is beaten in the district seats due to soild anti-LDP tactical voting by JRP HP CDP JCP and it seems in some cases defections from KP.

              District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          160         63      223             32.5%
KP               9         25        34             14.0%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP            13         13        26               8.5%
HP             79         38      117             21.0%
CDP             3         14       17                8.0%
SDP             1           0         1                1.5%
JCP              1         22       23               13.5%
Ind            23           0       23    most likely something like 4 pro-LDP 19 anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

This is more of a factional war within the LDP that just happens to be taking place outside of the LDP.

If the projections are anything close to correct, I think Koike becomes the next PM when a large anti-Abe contingent of the LDP that is currently within the party backs her for PM after the election. Then HP probably eventually merges into the LDP, with some pro-Abe members of the LDP possibly leaving to sit in opposition. It's possible if HP does not merge into the LDP that this breaks the LDP permanently, but either way there will be a "permanent majority" party (just a question of whether that party uses the name LDP or the name HP). If Koike fails to be elected PM this time, it's hard to see how the end result is anything other than HP fizzling.

Abe approval curve. Clearly under water and a good deal worse than the 45/40 when he won the 2014 elections in a landslide.  Of course I would wait for the final NHK poll.  That should clarify the direction we are headed.

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All this seems possible of LDP-KP falls below majority.  I think if LDP get hammered but wins a majority by itself or at least a majority with KP, then ABe will stay on for a while before being pushed out by or at the Sept 2018 LDP Prez election.  I doubt that in such a situation the LDP will defect en masse to Koike for the simple reason that Koike is not that popular in the LDP.  One knows this from the low number of LDP defectors to HP this election cycle.  If LDP-KP fail to win a majority then there will be all sort of schemes.

One trick that Koike has been playing is that by not having a PM candidate they are dangling that fact to get some pre-election support.  One thing HP is saying is that they do not rule out voting for the leader of KP for the PM candidate if HP fail to win a majority on its on.  Its message to KP is: "hey, tell your votes to vote for HP and the more HP MPs the more vote the KP leader might get in the vote for PM in the diet and this will add to the social respectability of KP."

I don't think that the CDP will only win 3 districts. Considering that CDP will win at least 2-3 Hokkaido seats (due to lack of HP and JCP candidates, LDP's unpopularity in the state), Professor Kodama's prediction suggests that Yukio Edano (Saitama 5th), Akira Nagatsuma (Tokyo 7th), Nishimura Chinami (Niigata 1st), Shoichi Kondo (Aichi 3rd), Hirotaka Akamatsu (Aichi 5th), and Kiyomi Tsujimoto (Osaka 10th) will all lose their District Seats.

The only possible scenario of CDP winning only 3 districts is a LDP landslide at the expense of CDP-HP split (maybe 270+ seats), but this Professor rather predicted a huge HP surge.

Holy sh**t, it's happening.

Are we going to expect Nippon Ishin no Kai to sweep Osaka?

Also, what is Okinawa politics like at this level? Do they elect ant-American or left Diet members

I don't think that they will completely sweep, but they'll get damn close to it.

Other political analyst projections

鈴木哲夫 (Suzuki Tetsuo): LDP 235 KP 35 HP 93 JCP 23 DCP 26 SDP 2 JRP 22 NPD 1 Ind/other 28
角谷浩一(Koichi Koko): LDP 218 KP 34 HP 91 JCP 30 DCP 38 SDP 2 JRP 24 NPD 1 Ind/other 27 
三浦博史(Miura Hiroshi): LDP 260 KP 34-35 Opposition 170-171

If true then this will work to the advantage of LDP-KP.  In Tokyo's 25 districts, other than the 5 solid LDP seats, the generic vote at rest of the district seat was thought to be

(if CDP or pro-CDP ind were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP         40
CDP       20

(if JCP were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP          45
JCP         15

But with this CDP surge it looks more like

(if CDP or pro-CDP ind were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP         35
CDP       25

(if JCP were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP          40
JCP         20

In which case LDP will win the large majority of seats.  I think it might turn into LDP 15 seat HP 7 seats DCP 3 seats or even worse for HP.  So this sort of DCP surge works against HP and in favor of LDP-KP.

In Osaka I do expect JRP to make gains.  Of course understand that out of the 19 Osaka seats, KP is running in 4 of them.  JRP and KP have an alliance at the local level and LDP and KP have an alliance at the national level.  So the net effect is that neither LDP or JRP runs in these 4 seats.  Even DCP does not run there given the relative positive relationship between the old DP and KP.  Only the JCP runs there to represent the Left Front.  In these 4 seats it is the battle of social outcasts (out of all the parties KP and JCP are the most socially unacceptable) but KP is sure to win.

So LDP-KP is has a minimum of 4 seats out of Osaka.  In a JRP surge scenario based on its alliance with HP  they can potentially compress LDP down to 2 seats.  DCP has the edge in a 3 way LDP-JRP-DCP district and most likely will win it with JCP support.   So out of the 19 Osaka seats JRP might get up to 12 seats versus 5 in 2014.

As for Okinawa there is still an anti-base majority against the LDP.  Even the local branch of JRP which is based on the LDP Right wing splinter POR is mostly anti-base but very anti-JCP.  The anti-base bloc is based on various local Left parties, JCP, and ex-DP.  HP seems neutral in this and will mostly back JRP.  In the Okinawa 1st district it will be LDP vs JCP vs JRP which JCP won in 2014 in a similar 3 way race.  In the other 3 districts the anti-base bloc {SDP, ex-LP ind, OSMP backed Ind) will sweep to victory over LDP with JRP-HP mostly neutral with even some tacit support.  At this stage any bloc that is against the base will win.  So strong is this tide JCP will most likely win reelection in Okinawa 1st district as well.

I totally agree with you.  The only other explanation is that he has an obsolete list of candidates from a week ago when a lot of the CDP candidates (like in Hokkaido) did not join CDP yet and were planning to run as ex-DP independents.    But if that were the case then his projection should have a lot more than 23 independents winning.  So it seems that his projection somehow has ex-DP and not HP votes someone being so aligned with HP that they will vote LDP just because the candidate in question is not nominated by HP.  But that is unlikely because these same ex-DP and now HP voters just a few weeks ago were pro-DP and anti-LDP voters.  So in the end this scenerio seems like a Koike dream scenario where both LDP and CDP does badly when in reality both cannot simultaneously be true expect in Koike's ideal dream world.   

Latest NHK poll versus early Oct

Abe approval/disapproval  37(--)/43(-1)

Party support

()

LDP   31.2 (+0.4)
KP      3.8 (---)
JRP     1.3 (+0.3)
HP      4.8 (-0.6)
DP      1.6(-2.3)
CDP    4.4 (new) 
SDP    0.5 (-0.1)
JCP     2.7 (-0.6)

Seems to fit the narrative of CDP gaining from HP and JCP.

So Abe will go into this election with a NHK Aoki index of 68.2 which implies defeat against an united opposition or a marginal victory against a splinter opposition.  So it seems Abe will lose his 2/3 majority for sure but should win a majority.

DP means ex-DP independents?

Fuji evening paper projection which is much more pro-LDP.  It seems to show HP falling apart and CDP surging and as a result LDP is able to pick off a bunch LDP-HP marginal seats.  KP and JCP good performance also indicates a low turnout election.

()

             District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          215         61      276             31.5%
KP               9         26        35             14.5%
JRP              8          9        17               6.0%
HP             23         29        52             16.0%
CDP             9         27       36              15.5%
SDP             1           1         2                2.0%
JCP              1         23       24              14.0%
Ind            23           0       23    most likely something like 4 pro-LDP 19 anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Japanese pollsters sometimes ask something like, "Of which party do you consider yourself a supporter?" It's not measuring vote intention, at least not directly, but rather something like partisan identification. So people can identify with defunct parties like the DP.

Of course, partisan identification definitely shifts with shifts in vote intention, especially in a relatively unpolarized electorate like Japan's, but these polls are generally less meaningful than polls that actually ask about vote intention (and tend to dramatically understate the opposition parties' support since many voters for opposition parties consider themselves nebulously anti-LDP rather than loyal to a specific party).

Tintrlvr got it right. DP is still a party but just not running in the election.  The poll is a "which party do you support" and not "which party do you want to vote for on the PR ballot" where DP would make  no sense.

福岡 (Fukuoka) which is in Southern Japan PR poll

LDP   30.0
HP     11.5
KP       6.5
CDP     6.5

Frankly this poll should also have LDP worried.  In places like 福岡 (Fukuoka) LDP-KP PR vote should be in the low 50s.  福岡 (Fukuoka) is more anti-LDP than most in Southern Mainland Japan but Southern Mainland Japan is usually a LDP clean sweep except for isolated spots. 

Politico like political website go2senkyo poll relative to early Oct

Abe approval/disapproval 45(-2)/54(+2)
()



"Hope" for HP  Yes/maybe/No  23(-3)/26(--)/51(+3)
"Hope" for HP in Toyko 25/24/51
HP ratings drop and it seems is not that strong in Tokyo
()



"Hope" for CDP  Yes/maybe/No   28/26/46
CDP now seems more popular than HP
()



"Hope" for CDP pretty strong in 北海道 (Hokkaido)  and  東海 (Tokai)  where DP was strong and weaker in 九州 (Kyūshū)  近畿 (Kinki)  and 北関東 (North Kanto)
()



Vote for district seats
LDP   38(-2)
HP     15(-8)
CDP   15(new)
HP's fall has to be a concern now for anti-LDP forces unless CDP voter vote tactically to defeat LDP
()



PR vote
LDP    35(-2)
HP      21(-6)
CDP    24(new)
()

"Leaked" LDP poll from 10/7-10/9.  LDP polls usually underestimate LDP as to lower expectations so  one should view this poll as a floor for LDP

LDP  239
KP     34
NPD     1
JRP    25
HP   100 
CDP   29
SDP     2
JCP    22 
Ind    13  (most likely something like 3 pro-LDP 10 anti-LDP )

Looks like the surprise here is how strong JRP is.  25 seats for JRP means they will sweep Osaka or get to around 10% of the PR vote.  Either one would be a victory for JRP.

Is there any chance this is being "leaked" to prop up JRP? A three way split in the opposition could be even more advantageous than a two way split.

In theory yes. In practice no.  Mostly because JRP is not really running outside Osaka in the district seats and outside Osaka the various JRP candidates have very little chance of winning anyway.  One way this an be what you said is the PR vote.  The JRP vote share is on the edge or making it into threshold for getting seats in a whole bunch of PR zones. So an artificially high JRP poll could lure JRP-HP PR marginal voters into voting for JRP instead of a tactical vote for HP.  So that vote becomes wasted if JRP does not make the threshold with LDP being most likely to benefit.  My guess is that the LDP is not that "deep."  I think their job is to just low-ball LDP expectations so they can claim a "win" even though they clearly will lose seats.

Another plausible theory is that LDP is trying to trigger anti-JRP tactical voting by JCP and DP voters.  By showing a result that has JRP potentially sweeping Osaka and knowing that the DP and especially JCP voting base are very hostile to JRP at the local level to the point where there is a LDP-DP-JCP grand alliance at the Osaka local level to counter JRP, this poll could be a call for the DP and JCP voting base to swing over to LDP to stop the JRP sweep of Osaka.

()

Out of 87 existing DP MPs
44 will run for HP
15 will run for CDP
21 will run as independents (most of which with at least tacit support from CDP JCP and HP)
7 will retire

The gang with the best chance of success are the 21 running as independent as most of them will take on LDP 1-on-1

Asahi mega poll of 40,000 (which is usually jointly funded by several media house so look for other media outlets to have their own version of the same poll) has

LDP+KP at close to 2/3 majority.  It has KP at 34 seats (I am sure 9 district and 25 PR) and LDP winning at least 200 FPTP seats and 68 PR seats.  This will give LDP-KP at least 302 seats and more likely around 315 and perhaps up to 325 seats.

()

For opposition parties it seems that it will be
()

HP   ~70
JRP  ~17
CDP  ~45  (I am sure this includes various ex-DP members many of which I really consider pro-HP)
JCP  ~21



While I suspect this will overestimate the LDP (especially on the PR section) it will not be so far so the chances of an early exit by Abe is very low.  What is interesting is that this is not consistent with other polls out there recently (like NHK.)  

Given Kyushu/Fukuoka's status as Yakuza land, does that, err, influence the local LDP?

Yomiuri projection based on the same raw data that Asahi has

()

Which seems to be
          Min - Avg - Max
LDP      257-274-295
KP          30-33-36
JRP         13-14-15
HP          56-59-64
CDP        39-42-49
SDP          2-2-2
JCP        15-15-16
Ind        25-26-30  (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)

HP seems to be under-performing and JCP seems to be losing ground to CDP but the split in opposition votes seems to be handing LDP another landslide victory.

Nikkei projection based on the same poll as everyone else have
        
()

         Min - Avg - Max
LDP　199～260～308
KP    　28～34～36
JRP     　5～10～16
HP    　46～69～110
CDP  　 35～45～60
SDP     　1～1～2
JCP   　 15～18～20
Ind      15～28～35  (4-5 are pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)

Message clearly is HP falling apart and CDP surging with LDP taking advantage of the split vote of the opposition.  

Kyodo projections which are the most pro-LDP of all the projections although it has KP performing poorly and JRP doing better than other projections.  It also has CDP and JCP doing worse than other projections.
          
               Total                      District                   PR                  Implied Avg PR vote
         Min - Avg - Max     Min - Avg - Max    Min - Avg - Max
LDP　273～289～305      210～221～334         63～68～71                      34.5%
KP    　26～30～35               7～8～9              19～22～26                      12.0%
NPD        0～0～1                                             0～0～1                          0.5%
JRP      10～17～23              2～6～10              8～11～13                        7.0%
HP       47～60～72            13～21～29           34～39～43                      22.5%
CDP  　 25～33～42             7～12～17           18～21～25                      12.5%
SDP     　1～2～2                 1～1～1                0～1～1                           2.0%
JCP   　10～14～19              0～0～2              10～14～17                        8.5%
Ind      14～20～25            14～20～25

()

Note that all these media diverse projections are all based on the same mega poll.  Each media house then un-skewed these polls results their own way based on their on-the-ground reports.

Kyodo which is the most anti-LDP always have the most pro-LDP projection and Nikkei which is  the most pro-LDP always has the most anti-LDP projections.  I think they are overcompensating for their house effects.

Kyodo poll for PR for the PR section 北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu)   

LDP  36.3
KP     4.8
JRP    2.3
HP   13.4
CDP   8.0
SDP   1.5
JCP    4.4
 
Going by historical biases of Kyodo polls this seems to imply a LDP-KP vote share in 北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu) of around 49% which in turn implies a national vote share of LDP-KP at around 46%-47% which would make it identical to 2014.

宮城(Miyagi) PR poll 

()

LDP   32.6
KP      5.0
PJK     0.4
JRP     0.7
HP    12.2
CDP    7.9
SDP    0.7
JCP     4.1

Miyagi PR vote for LDO-KP historically is about the national average.   This poll is done by the local Kahoku newspaper so I am not clear about is biases.  Usually the LDP-KP vote share in the poll is what they will end up with which means this poll is bad for LDP.  But without knowing the historical biases of this pollster we cannot be sure.

Nikkei PR vote by PR region

()

                                                       LDP    HP    KP    JCP    CDP    JRP
Total                                                  34     16     7      6      13       4
北海道 (Hokkaido)                               29     12     6       7      19      2
東北(Tohoku)                                      34     19     6       6      13      1
北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto)         35     17    7       5       13      2
南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto)   35      15    7       5      15       2
東京 (Tokyo)                                       31     16     7       9      15      2
北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu)                37      16     5      5      12       2
東海 (Tokai)                                       32      19     6      5      13       2
近畿 (Kinki)                                        31     11     8      7      10      12
中国(Chugoku)                                   41      15     8     4        9        2
四国 (Shikoku)                                   38      19     8      5       9        3
九州 (Kyūshū)                                    36      16     9      5      11       2

北海道 (Hokkaido)  results make sense.  I am surprised how well HP is doing in 東北(Tohoku) and how well CDP is doing in the Tokyo suburbs of the Kanto regions.  Of course the Tokyo numbers in Tokyo look like a disaster and it might turn into an embarrassment for Koike even if HP does ok overall.  JRP also doing poorly in 近畿 (Kinki).

Back in 2014 Sankei published their PR vote poll results based on the same pollster and it had along with real results.

LDP    37.5%  -> 33.1%
DPJ     13.2%  -> 18.3%
JIP      10.7%  -> 15.7%
KP        8.2%  -> 13.7%
JCP       5.2%  -> 11.4%
FPG      1.5%  ->   2.7%
PLP       1.9%  ->  1.9%
SDP      1.4%  ->  2.5%

It seems to imply that LDP-KP is headed toward something like 44% of the combined PR vote which is not great but should enough for a victory.  

Of course in 2014 the 2 ruling parties LDP-KP polled 45.7 vs 29.1 (for the 3 major opposition parties of DPJ JIP and JCP).  Now the LDP-KP is polling 41 vs 39 (for the 4 major opposition parties of HP JRP CDP JCP).  All signs put to a much closer race but the projections that are based on these raw polling data point to the same LDP-KP landslide.

NHK projection

LDP    270
KP       35
JRP     16
HP      55
DCP    33
JCP     24
Rest    32 (I guess SDP 2, NPD 1, and 29  independents (4-5 pro-LDP rest anti-LDP))

Yomiuri Projection

              District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          211         61      272             31.0%
KP               9         23        32             12.5%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              6           8       14               5.5%
HP             21         38        59             21.5%
CDP           12         31        43             18.0%
SDP             1           1         2               2.0%
JCP              1         14       15               8.5%
Ind(LDP)      5           0        5
Ind(Oppn)  23           0       23
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

PR votes seems pretty close to where I would have it with CDP perhaps a bit high and JRP a bit low. Mostly lack of CDP-HP tactical voting seems to push up the LDP single district seats.

One fairly shocking result of these media projections but not surprising is the fact that LDP seems set to sweep Tokyo.  The CDP surge ate into HP's vote share and with almost all Tokyo seat having 3 way battles between LDP-KP vs HP vs CDP-SDP-JCP the CDP surge meant that the anti-LDP vote is set to be split opening the way for the LDP sweep.  Also CDP seems to be gaining from its alliance with JCP and is set to gain a few seats relative to DP's performance of 1 seat out of 25 in 2014.  HP's seat count in Tokyo might end up in the low single digits.  Not sure Koike can survive this embarrassment. 

The CDP-SDP-JCP-(ex-DP ind) alliance is not perfect.  Out of 289 seats this bloc is not running in 4 of them and are de facto backing the HP candidate.    

Out of the 285 reaming seats
SDP is representing the front  in 12 seats
CDP is representing the front in 42 seats
ex-DP independent is representing the front in 26 seats
JCP is representing the front in 176 seats

In 30 seats no deal was made so
Both SDP and JCP running in 5 seats
Both CDP and JCP running in 21
Both ex-DP independent and JCP running 3

Since JCP is not a viable winner in a district seat, in reality the Left Front have realistic chance to win a solid share of the vote only in around 100 districts or so with a realistic chance to win in only around 40 seats or so.

HP is running 198 seats out f 289 seats and seem to be backing 12 mostly ex-DP independents.  HP is also backing JRP in the 15 out of 19 Osaka seats where KP is not running.   For the Osaka KP seats both HP and JRP are not running and are implicitly backing KP and leaving the Left Front to challenge KP.  HP also backing JRP in 3 other non-Osaka seats.  

Nikkei poll has Abe Approval/Disapproval at 37(-13)/48(+6) which change from Sept. 

So LDP is going to win again because the opposition can't cobble together a coalition to beat them?  Also, do parties usually rise and fall this quickly in Japan?  It seems ridiculous how parties are just created so quickly.

Yomuri poll has interest in the election 43%, some interest at 37% and no interest at 14%.  Age plays a big role as interest increase with age.  This actually works to the slight disadvantage of LDP as DP/JCP tends to be stronger in the 50s and 60s age group while LDP tends to be strong in the 20s and 30s.
()


Same poll has support for Abe's Constitutional revision idea of putting in the existence of SDF in the pacifist 9th Clause at 35/42.  It is interesting that LDP PR voters back it 60/18 but HP PR voters only back it 25/58.  Seems to imply that HP PR voters are really just old DP/DPJ voters.  KP backing is lukewarm at 43/31.  Of course JCP SDP and CDP PR voters oppose by large margins.  JRP voters back it 47/38 which is somewhat not surprising.
()

Overall Abe loses on this issue but because he is able to carry the KP vote anyway LDP will do well.

Yes. Pretty much.  One way to illiterate this is a field poll done in 3 key districts

()

Here  in Tokyo 11th district.  Abe's approval rating is around 30% but the LDP candidate due to local support seems to be polling around 40%.  Worse, since DCP and JCP could not work out a deal in this district (precisely because on paper given Abe's approval rating here  it should be vulnerable) HP, CDP and JCP are all running and all of them have around 15% of the vote.  The result is an easy victory for LDP.

In 京都(Kyoto) 1st district, Abe's approval rating is around 40% but JCP is also very strong.  But the JCP has a low cap even if it has a high floor here.  So LDP polls around 40%, JCP around 30% and HP around 10%.  There is no way the JCP can win enough undecided to defeat LDP.  Result is another easy LDP victory.

In 新潟(Niigata) 1st district, Abe's approval rating is in the low 40% and highest of the 3 districts.  But since in this prefecture it seems DCP HP and JCP has reached an implicit deal to back a common slate of DCP or ex-DP candidates, the LDP candidate is in trouble.  The LDP incumbent who won with 47% of the vote in 2014 looks to repeat the same feat by polling in the low 40s but is behind the united opposition DCP candidate.  Most likely the DCP candidate will win.

LDP-KP has rough around 45% support and JCP around 10% which are pretty stable.  The other 45% has experienced total chaos last 6 years with the creations and new parties, splinters and mergers.   This adds to the reason why the 45% that backs LDP-KP sticks with them.  The alternative seems to be JCP or chaos. Certainly that is how the LDP has been positioning this election.  

why didn't the DJP pass a decent electoral reform while they had the chance, ugh.

福島(Fukushima) poll

()

Abe Approval/Disapproval 30/55  (was 37/42 back in July 2016 Upper House elections)
Party support
LDP  32
KP     3
JRP    1
HP   13
DP     2
CDP   8
SDP   2
JCP    4

Back in 2014 Lower House elections LDP support was 35 and KP 5 so LDP-KP is in decline here relative to 2014.

As for PR vote it is
LDP    32
KP       4? (did not say but 4 sounds about right)
JRP      2? (did not say but 2 sounds about right)
HP      21
CDP    14
SDP      2
JCP      6

when compared to an earlier poll in early Oct before CDP was formed

LDP    23.9
KP    　3.8
JRP     1.4
PJK     0.6
HP     30.6
LP       1.0
SDP     2.8
JCP      8.2

It is clear LDP gained ground while HP and JCP support has moved to DCP.  Fits the main narrative of the last week or so.

Why are some former DPers running as HP and others running as pro-HP independents? What's the difference, what's the advantage?

Same question with the CDP, why are some running CDP and others as pro-CDP independents?

There are a bunch of ex-DP candidates which ideologically would be acceptable to HP/Koike but had leadership positions in the past in DP or DPJ.  HP's goal is to distance itself from the failed past of DPJ/DP.  So that is why HP insists on not a merger between HP and DP but individual DP members joining HP one by one.  So what was de facto worked out was for these ex-DP candidates to run as independents and HP not run a candidate in said district so they become the de facto candidate of HP.  These candidates are quit strong and since they have a significant amount of prestige within DP/DPJ, CDP would not want to run candidates against them and only JCP would volunteer for that district and run. 

For CDP and pro-CDP independents.  There is is a bit more tricky.  Some of these pro-CDP independents are ex-DP centrists that felt that they rather run with de facto CDP (and JCP/SDP) support withou the CDP party label which has a Leftist tinge.  Others are not even pro-CDP as really anti-LDP.  They run as independents as way to get CDP HP and even perhaps JCP to back them.  The idea is CDP is the Center-Left opposition and HP is the Center-Right opposition.  Running as a candidate with one of the two party labels might trigger the other to run a candidate and split the anti-LDP vote.  So the best way is to run as an independent to make it ambiguous and gives HP CDP and even JCP the excuse to just not run a candidate and say to themselves "it is for the better since we then do not split the anti-LDP vote."  I dare say if every ex-DP candidate manage to work out deals like this with CDP and HP in most districts then the LDP would be in trouble. Luckily for LDP there are only a 24 such independents which by my calculation 15 of which are favored to win.   

Note there are 16 CDP candidates running without a HP candidate running against them and all but 1 does not have a JCP candidate either.  About half of them are LDP strongholds that HP does not even bother.  In the other half CDP is favored in a majority of them since they get to take on LDP 1-on-1.

Dumb question: If HP wins, can Yuriko Koike become PM or does she have to resign as governor/run for a seat in parliament in a special election? If she didn't, who would become PM?

Well I have a long answer to this.  

First when the election system was changed in 1993 from a multi-member district (usually 3 to 6) to FPTP, it was done to stop LDP from winning all the time.  In many ways such a system was very PR like.  The perception was that the LDP wins because it was a confederation of special interest groups which makes it perfect for a multi-member district system.  By having FPTP the internal contradictions of LDP would be exposed leading to a split in LDP and the anti-LDP parities will have to unite.  Neither turned out to be true.

It seems that HP will not be "The Party" that has been prophesied that will defeat LDP and bring balance to the Japanese political universe.  We have seen such false prophets before.  NFP in 1995, YP in 2010, JRP in 2012 and now HP in 2017.  All turned out not to be "The Party."  The one that came close and actually beat the LDP, was of course DPJ 2009.  But beating LDP in a national election is not good enough.  The LDP is like the Terminator, it does not stop and keeps on coming back.  I actually came up with an multi-step list to actually stop (not necessary beat) LDP once "The Party" actually shows up and defeats LDP in a national election (which would be the easy step.)  This mutli-step list is what the DPJ should have done.

1) Forget "what is good for Japan" or "good governance."  The LDP is ruthless and you must be the same.  All resources, including national resources has to be prioritized to the steps below by the new ruling party.

2) Visit national KP, give them a blank check both in terms of money and policy.  Say "fill the check with whatever your want" but you must join in alliance with us, the new ruling party.  If you get KP you bought a voting voting army of 8% of the electorate that turns out around 95% in elections which makes it worth around 12%-14% of the vote.

3) Every ruling party MP will the prefecture assembly of his (most MPs will be male, so lets accept this reality) prefecture will approach the SECOND most powerful leader of the LDP caucus.  A blank check both in terms of money and policy will be offered to him to defect and become the leader of the caucus of the new ruling party in the prefecture assembly.  

4) These MPs will route national resources to this new ruling party caucus leader and he will use these resource to lure other defectors from the LDP in the prefecture assembly came to come over to the new ruling party caucus.

5) The new ruling party caucus leader will also visit KP in the prefecture and, in the same method as others, hand a blank check to the local KP saying "your national branch already joined up with the new ruling party, you and your entire caucus should do the same and ally with the new ruling party, and here a bunch of goodies for you to make it worth your while."  And presto, the KP voting robot army at the prefecture level is also at the ruling party's command.

6) All ruling MLAs of prefecture will now visit the SECOND most power LDP leader in the various city and township assemblies and bribe him to come over to head up the new ruling party caucus in said township or city.

7) Repeat the process with KP branch at the city and township level.

8  ) It is critical that the money and resources flow from the PM to the ruling party MP and then to the prefecture MLA caucus leader to the members of the prefecture MLA and then to the city and township assembly members of the ruling party.

Doing all this does not completely defeat or destroy LDP.  It does mean that the new ruling party will not compete with the LDP on a equal basis and most likely will lead to the type of bipolar politics you see in the USA which was the point of the FPTP election system in the first place.

In the recent years, yes. This started in 2012, after a period of relative stability. Most of the parties (and all the significant ones except LDP, Komeito and JCP) that contested the 2012 election do not exist anymore.

Right. The issue is that the LDP is not popular and has never really been popular since they lost the 2009 election (or, going back a bit further, since Abe's first term as PM in 2006). Although polls have shown their numbers quite high at times, this is typical for Japan and does not represent satisfaction with the party. However, the DPJ, which defeated the LDP in 2009, made itself look incompetent by, among other things, running through three PMs in as many years, and destroyed the credibility of the party with the Japanese people as an alternative to the LDP. So the LDP is unpopular, but no one really thinks there is a viable alternative. This results in many different parties popping up to try to carve out individual fiefdoms or exploit the unpopularity of the LDP. As there are so many different parties, none of them are alone seen as significant enough to be able to be a viable governing force, so there's no incentive for either voters or politicians to coalesce behind a single alternative to the LDP. So the chaos continues.

Before 2006, there was a relatively long period from 2000-2006 where the LDP was popular, and the party system slowly coalesced. But, in the 90s, the LDP was also unpopular, and there was similar chaos in the party system, with parties forming, merging, dividing and dissolving all the time.

This election feels a little bit like 1993, the first time the LDP lost power, that time to an eight-party anti-LDP coalition, and I do think the possibility of Koike putting together a crazy-quilt coalition (that includes some elements currently inside the LDP and maybe doesn't last very long) is being underestimated. But there's no denying that, at least in the polls, she appears to have peaked.

Well for her to be PM she will have to be a MP either in the Upper or Lower House.  So in the unlikely event HP plus a bunch of parties including KP and/or some LDP splinter, for Koike to become PM she has to run in a by-election to get in.  Worse, even if a HP MP resigns for Koike to get elected the delay between a MP resigning and by-election might be months leaving politics in a limbo.

LDP isn't much different, though: there were 3 LDP PMs between 2006 and 2009, and few Japanese PMs ever served longer than 3 years. Koizumi and post-2012 Abe are clear exceptions.

I'm curious how many Koike supporters are aware of this and how this affects their voting intentions...

In 5 districts it will be de facto LDP vs LDP followed by the rule "if you win you are LDP"

In 茨城(Ibaraki) 7th district. A long time LDP rebel has held the seat beating back the official LDP candidate every time.  In 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture politics this LDP rebel is the leader of one of the LDP factions in the prefecture assembly.   This time around this LDP rebel has asked to re-join the LDP.  The LDP decision is still to run its own official candidate with the understanding that if this LDP rebel  wins he will be allowed to join the LDP caucus and accepted as an official member of LDP.

In 埼玉(Saitama) 11th. A long time LDP has held the seat beating back the official LDP candidate every time.  This time this LDP rebel wants to run as LDP.  The LDP decision was for this LDP rebel and the official LDP candidate to both run as independents and the winner will be retroactively nominated by the LDP and be able to join the LDP caucus.

In 神奈川(Kanagawa) 4th district the existing pro-opposition independent who used to be in both DPJ and YP and beat the LDP in 2014 as the common opposition candidate has decided to join LDP and wanted to run as the LDP candidate.  The local LDP branch came up with their own official candidate.  The national LDP decision was to allow the incumbent independent MP to run and if he wins he will be accepted into the LDP caucus.  This one is not as cut and dry as both CDP and HP are in the fray but it seems that the winner will most likely be the official LDP candidate or the now LDP rebel.   
   
In 山梨(Yamanashi) 2nd district the incumbent is an old time LDP rebel that repeatedly beat back the official LDP candidate.  This time the rebel wishes to be re-join LDP.  The LDP decision is for both the official LDP candidate and the incumbent LDP rebel to run as independents and the winner is retroactively nominated by the LDP.   

In 岡山(Okayama) 3rd distinct the long time LDP incumbent is retiring in this LDP stronghold.  His son wants to run to replace his father but a rival faction wants to nominate their own candidate.  The LDP decided for both to run as independents and the winner retroactively nominated by the LDP.

This is why on election day you might see LDP win X seats but the next morning LDP is claimed to have won up to 5+X seats.  That is because up to 5 pro-LDP independents (and at least 3) are going to win and be retroactively nominated by LDP that same night so next morning the LDP seat count goes up.   

It was a real problem from the LDP in 2006-2009 how quickly they were burning through PMs, also, and definitely contributed to their defeat in 2009. Clearly the LDP has performed better during the Koizumi and Abe II years than either party did when PMs were dropping like flies.

But the bar was always higher for the DPJ than it would have been for the LDP because opposition supporters want something better than the LDP while LDP supporters are content to settle for the LDP. Also, the DPJ needed to prove their suitability to govern because they had never governed before; the LDP doesn't have to prove their suitability to govern because they are the party of government; as a result, they get to mess up a lot more and the sort of voters who are willing to settle for the LDP (see above) will stick with the LDP.

Jiji poll  

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Abe approval/disapproval 37.1(-4.7)/48.8(+5.1)

PR vote

LDP  30.7
KP     5.9
JRP    3.1
HP   11.8
CDP   4.4
SDP   1.2
JCP   4.5

茨城(Ibaraki) PR poll.  茨城(Ibaraki) has a strong LDP lean, especially for a prefecture in the North.  The LDP-KP PR vote is usually 5% above national average
 
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LDP     34.5
KP        5.8
JRP       1.7
HP      13.4
CDP     8.4
SDP     0.7
JCP      4.6

I fell as if pollster make NO attempt to get a response out of most people that isn't 'no party'. I think pollsters should push a bit harder for actual responses.

With polls indicating that a HP breakthrough seems unlikely this election there is now already talk of the re-creation of DP.  Namely, a lot of the pro-HP, anti-LDP independents, and even some HP winners after the elections that were all from the DP might all just re-join DP.  The idea that even those ex-DP candidates that ran on HP and won really own nothing to Koike since its was DP that funded their campaign.   Some HP winners will not have DP background or joined HP before DP being disbanded.  They will most likely stay with HP.  Another outstanding question would be would this recreated DP then merge with CDP or not.  Most likely not but CDP will have to make a call about weather is future iw with JCP or DP.  So post election we will see the Center-Right opposition of rump HP-JRP-TCJ, Centrist opposition of DP, and Left opposition of CDP-SDP-JCP.

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Yomiuri poll seems like more bad news for Abe/LDP yet at the same time projections has LDP-KP with a solid win.

Abe Approval/Disapproval 31/53 (way under water)

Party support (not PR)
LDP    32
KP       3
JRP      1
HP     12
DP       2
LP       1
CDP     6
SDP     1
JCP      6

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68% certain to vote vs 60% back in 2014.  If turnout rises from 52% to say 60% this time then that is bad news for KP JCP and also LDP.

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So... there will essentially be no point in all of the defections and splits that have happened over the last few weeks?

I never knew there could be such a hopeless, and divided opposition anywhere...

Yeah.  At the core of it comes down to should DP seek to ally with Third Pole parties to defeat LDP or ally with JCP to defeat LDP.  In the end we might end up with a 3 way split of a merged HP as a Third Pole force, DP which could go either way depending on the election/district, and CDP that will be allied with JCP.  It gives everyone what they want but leaves LDP with easy wins.

Any chance that conservative former DP-MPs would use HP as a stepping stone to cross over to LDP after the election?

Unlikely. It is actually pretty hard to defect into LDP.  Only way is if you win your seat and having you join LDP would not cause rebellions within the local LDP branch in said district as to make the ROI to taking you in not worth it.  But MPs which are able to win their seats by a large margin will have no great incentive to join LDP.  There have been a couple cases of this every election cycle but not on a mass basis.  Of course if said MP used to be part of LDP then that might be a different story.

Asahi poll has Abe approval/disapproval at 43/41 which is better news for Abe.

They did a poll on PR vote but without disclosing the headline result they disclosed some breakdowns.

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For those  that approve of Abe (43%) the PR vote is LDP 68 KP 10 HP 10 JRP 5 JCP 2 CDP 5
For those that disapprove of Abe (41) the PR vote is LDP 18 KP 7 HP 26 JRP 4 JCP 14 CDP 27 SDP 1


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For those that does not support any party the PR vote is

LDP 32 KP 7 HP 25 JRP 6 JCP 8 CDP 20 SDP 1

LDP-KP doing better than 2012 but worse than 2014 in this group.

All seems to point to LDP-KP winning around 42%-45% of the PR vote given that LDP-KP won in 2012 39.45% and in 2014 46.82%

New Asahi projections which dialed back the LDP a bit

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Taking their medium case

             District      PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          217         69      286             35.5%
KP               8         21        29             12.0%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              3           9       12               6.5%
HP             24         32        56             18.0%
CDP           11         30       41              17.0%
SDP             1           0         1               1.5%
JCP              1         14       15               8.5%
Ind            24           0       24    most likely something like 4-5 pro-LDP and rest anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

These results seems to imply a surge in turnout that hurts KP JCP but actually helps LDP and CDP.  This assumes that a lot of CDP voters comes out to vote against LDP and a lot of LDP voters comes out to vote against CDP-JCP with KP and JCP getting hurt in the process.

Abe approval ratings curve still under water and getting slightly worse

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Cuve on PR voting intentions since mid Sept show HP getting the DP vote but then lost it to back to CDP which is almost up to where DP was.  LDP stable the whole time

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My current best guess on results. 

LDP-KP loses seats in a higher turnout election (59%). 

I broke the various Center-Left Independents into 4 blocs.
Ind(LP) - 2 of them are ex-LP members, one of them is Ozawa
Ind(HP) - ex-DP members that are running with a JCP against them but no HP candidate.  We can view these candidates as pro-HP
Ind(OPPN) - ex-DP members that are joint opposition candidates with no HP CDP or JCP candidates running against them
Ind(CDP) - ex-DP members that have a HP (or HP backed) candidate running against them so we can see them as pro-CDP


              District     PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          190         63      253             31.9%
KP               9         23        32             12.8%
NPD             0           1         1               0.4%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              7         10       17                6.8%
HP             35         37        72              20.9%
CDP           16         25        41              15.0%
SDP             1           1         2                1.7%
JCP              1         16       17                9.6%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)      10           0       10     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  12           0       12      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      1          0         1      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Most media projections have LDP-KP at 305 to 325.  I have them at 285.

In 2013 I got the LDP-KP PR vote share correct whereas the media outfits got it wrong.  But I overestimated DPJ and underestimated JRP, YP, and JCP in the district seats whereas the media outfits got that balance right.

In 2014, I got the LDP-KP PR vote share more correct (underestimate of 1%) than media outfits (overestimate of 3%-4%) but I overestimated DPJ JIP and JCP anti-LDP tactical voting  whereas the media outfits were closer to the mark on that.

In 2016 I got the LDP-KP PR vote share more wrong (underestimate of 4%) than media outfit (underestimate of 1%).  But both underestimated anti-LDP tactical voting which made my district projections more accurate (two wrongs make a right.)

In 2017 It seems for the first time my and the media outfits mostly agree on the LDP-KP PR vote share (I am around 45% and they cluster around 46%) but I estimate greater level of anti-LDP tactical voting than these media outfits.

What this election will come down to now is
1) How will the CDP voter vote in a district where it is LDP vs HP vs JCP?  If they mostly vote for the former ex-DP HP candidate then that would be in-line with my projection.  If some of them go with JCP then it would be inline with the media projections
2) How will the HP voters (most of them until recently are really DP and LP voters) vote in a district where it is LDP vs CDP (or joint opposition candidate)? If they mostly vote for the CDP or joint opposition candidate then that would be in-line with my projection.  If some of them go with LDP them it would be inline with media projections.

The only way the LDP is beaten in district seats are mostly based on some joint opposition efforts.

Out of the 12 pro-HP ex-DP independents, I project 10 of them will win since the will only face LDP with JCP. 
Out of the 21 Joint opposition candidates, I project 12 of them will win since they will take on LDP 1-in-1.   
Same is true for both ex-LP candidates
But out of 8 ex-DP candidates that are running as independents but with a HP candidate running, none of them will win.
Out of 15 CDP candidates running without a HP candidate in the fray, 6 will win according to my projection. 
But out of 48 CDP candidates running with a HP backed candidate in the fray, only 10 will win and 8 of them it is only because the HP candidate is a political novice with no name recognition. 
Out of the 35 HP winners out of 198 candidates according to my projections, only 1 won with a CDP or ex-DP independent in the fray.  All other 34 were won with only a JCP or SDP candidate in the fray where I project the CDP voter will go with HP to stop LDP.

Jiji projection:  LDP-KP to get around 310 seats.

LDP 150 district easy wins, 55 district ahead, around 68 PR seats.  Total of around 280 seats.
KP 6 district seat easy wins, 3 neck-to-neck, will lose PR seats from 26 it got in 2014
JRP around 14 seats overall.
HP Ahead in 5 district seat, competitive in 50 seats, could be reduced to 2 seats in Tokyo, around 35 PR seats.
CDP Strong in Hokkaido, around 30 PR seats
JCP Will lose seats for sure
SDP gets 2 seats
NPD could get 1 PR seat

We can do guess of what the Jiji PR seats look like along with implied vote share

         Seats   Implied PR vote share
LDP      68               34.5%
KP        22               12.5%
NDP       1                 0.5%
JRP        7                 6.0%
HP       35               20.5%
CDP     30               16.5%
SDP      1                 1.5%
JCP     12                 8.0%

長野(Nagano) poll of PR vote. 

LDP     25.2
KP        4.2
HP        6.4
CDP      9.6
SDP      0.6
JCP       7.2

長野(Nagano) has a historical LDP minus 3-4 lean.  Third pole parties tend to do poorly here and JCP tends to be strong.  In that sense this result makes sense.  Still this seems to imply that HP support is falling.

Latest Mainichi projection

LDP over 300 by itself
HP at most 54 seats, at most 23 district seats of which 10 are quite competitive
CDP around 40 seats
KP will not keep 35 seats from 2014 for sure, will win 9 district seats
JRP hard to keep 14 seats today, LDP ahead in 8 Osaka seats (out of 19 Osaka seats 4 will go to KP, 1 will most likely go to CDP, 1 will go to pro-CDP independent, so if 8 are LDP so that leaves 5 for JRP)
JCP lose seats from 21 from 2014
SDP most likely 1 seat

Something funny happen along the way to Koike's HP clean sweep of Tokyo.  First her mostly candidate list of nobodies did not seem to attract LDP-KP voter support unlike in the Tokyo Prefecture elections back in July.  A key part is not getting the KP alliance.  Then there was an unexpected surge of CDP which with the support of JCP in several old DPJ strong areas made them the real alternative to LDP in several seats.  As a result HP is now looking at 2-3 seats while CDP is looking at 2-5 seats with LDP-KP winning the rest.  HP could very well end up third place in Tokyo.    It was Koike hubris that led to this.  If she worked to induct some DP candidates instead of letting them join CDP  she worked to make the HP the sole alternative to LDP.  As it was getting the JRP alliance was worth less than it seems and now she is going to face a humiliating result in Tokyo. 

Likewise in Osaka, HP support seems not to be what it claims as CDP and various pro-CDP independents are emerging as an alternative to LDP and JRP and draw enough anti-LDP votes away from JRP to keep LDP position in Osaka pretty strong. 

If this is the case then looking at the likely HP lineup after the election the entire HP caucus other than perhaps 5-6 MPs will be made up entire of ex-DP candidates that joined after DP dissolved itself.  If these MPs see that it was them and the old DP machine that got them elected and not Koike many might decamp after the election to re-join DP or even CDP or even another new centrist outfit.

Right now, I don't see HP winning more than 4 seats (3rd, 10th, 15th, and 21st) in Tokyo.

Agreed.  In fact I think Tokyo 3rd is increasing out of reach for HP.  My current projection has HP winning 3 seats in Tokyo (10th 15th and 21st).  Many media projections has LDP winning 15th district leaving HP with 2 seats.

Election for mayor of 鶴岡市(Tsuruoka) today.

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It is a proxy battle for 山形(Yamagata) 3rd district which is dominated by this city.  

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Last couple of cycles this district is between two rival LDP factions.  The official LDP is for 加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) whose father dominated this district until he was defeated by LDP rebel 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) in 2012.  加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) defeated  阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) in 2014 regaining the seat for her LDP faction.

In 2012 it was

LDP rebel 36.0%
LDP         35.2%
JRP          12.7%
SDP         11.5%
JCP           4.6%

and in 2014 it was

LDP         42.9%
LDP rebel 42.1%
DPJ           8.6%
JCP           5.8%

The incumbent mayor of 鶴岡市(Tsuruoka) is aligned with the 加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) LDP faction who won in 2009 and was re-elected in 2013 unopposed.  His opponent this time is aligned with 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) and is seen as an early proxy fight for the battle for 山形(Yamagata) 3rd district.  The result is a very high turnout election (68.3%) and a crushing victory for the opposition candidate aligned with 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) .

pro 加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) incumbent     42.6%
pro 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) opposition       57.6%  (backed by DP SDP and JCP)

This time 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) joined HP and will face off with 加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) along with the JCP candidate.  All media outfits called this seat an clear win by  加藤鮎子(Kato Ayuko) but I had this seat down for 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi)  on the premise that most CDP voters will vote tactically for 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi)  to defeat LDP versus going over to the JCP.

This mayor election results seems to indicate that my position has some legs and that 阿部寿一(Abe Juichi) is a in a strong position if this proxy election carries over to the election next week.

Mainichi poll

Do you want Abe to be re-elected to be PM.  Yes/No  37/47

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Among the 47 that do no want Abe to be re-elected PM the PR vote is

CDP   26
HP     20
LDP   12
JCP    11
KP       5
JRP     5

Overall party support (not PR) are

LDP        29
KP           5
JRP          3
HP           9
CDP       10
SDP         1
JCP          4
No Party 28
 
Among the No Party bloc PR vote are LDP 16 CDP 15 HP 11

It is just interesting that Abe is opposed 37/47 but will cruise to victory if not a landslide.  Party support numbers shows that HP is in trouble.

Yomuri map on Tokyo districts

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It has 11 safe LDP seats and 1 safe KP seat.  It also has 5 LDP-HP marginals and 8 LDP-CDP marginals.  This map matches that of my exactly with the exception of 18th districts which I also have as a LDP-CDP marginal instead of a safe LDP seat.  On the flit side I expect the 22nd district to be safe LDP instead of LDP-CDP marginal due to the JCP candidate.  Same is true for 19th but I do expect it to be close in the 19th although with CDP losing due to the JCP candidate.  I expect the marginals to be split 50/50 between LDP and the opposition party.

TBS/JNN poll (diff relative to early Sept 2017)

Abe approval/disapproval  48.7(+0.6)/49.2(-1.3)

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Party support
LDP    32.8(+0.4)
KP       3.8(+1.0)
JRP      1.8(+0.7)
HP       5.2 (new)
DP       1.2 (-5.2)
CDP     7.3 (new)
SDP     0.5 (-0.3)
JCP      3.2 (-1.0)

CDP clearly drawing support from DP JCP and SDP.  HP mostly from DP and LDP.  Support for parties higher across the board due to elections.

Seat adjustment with JCP is critical to CDP success.  Out of 42 CDP candidates that are running without a JCP candidate, I expect CDP to win 16 of them.  Out of 21 CDP candidates running with a JCP candidate in the fray I expect the CDP to win none of them.

Likewise, having a CDP or ex-DP independent running is the kiss of death for a  HP candidate.  Out of 48 such seats I expected HP to win only 1 of them.   Out of 151 HP candidates running that does not have HP or an ex-DP independent running against them, I expect HP to win 37 of them which is not a great run rate but still some wins.  

The two most interesting districts which feature 3 way races are

神奈川(Kanagawa) 4th.  Here the independent incumbent  浅尾 慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) is running for re-election.  Asao was in the DPJ but joined YP in 2009 and was the leader of YP in 2014 when YP dissolved.   He ran for re-election in 2014 as an opposition consensus candidate where DPJ and JIP did not run against him and beat the LDP candidate

2014
United Opposition candidate 48.1%
LDP                                    32.5%
JCP                                    10.6%
Green backed Ind.                8.8%

In 2016  Asao took a more pro-LDP stance and right before the 2017 election applied to join LDP.  In the end LDP went with its 2014 candidate and Asao ran as a LDP rebel.   CDP and HP are both in the race but HP is a nobody and will come in a poor 4th.  Right now the election most likely is a close 3 way race with Asao with a slight lead.

LDP rebel    32%
CDP           30%
LDP            28%
HP              10%


Okinawa 1st

Back in 2014 all Center-Left anti-base bloc united under one banner in Okinawa and swept all 4 seats.  In Okinawa 1st JCP ran for the United Center-Left alliance bloc.  JIP also ran as a Center-Right anti-base party while LDP was pro-base.  The result was JIP splitting the anti-JCP vote to allow the JCP to win.

JCP     39.8%  (backed by DPJ SDP PLP Green Party and OSMP)
LDP     36.6%
JIP      23.6%

Now JCP will run again for the Center-Left anti-base bloc.  LDP will run as the pro-based party and HP will back JRP as the Center-Right anti-base party.  The vote shares between the three blocs have not changed that much so it will be a close race between JCP and LDP with JRP perhaps gaining a bit from 2014 due to support from HP.

FNN/Sankei poll also has CDP surge at the expense of HP (diff vs sept)

Abe approval fell to be under water and Koike approval had a dramatic fall.

Abe approval/disapproval  42.5(-7.8  )/46.3(+6.3)
Koike approval/disapproval 39.2(-27.2)/51.7(+24.3)
()
()



Party support is

LDP   34.5 (-3.5)
KP      5.4 (+1.8 )
JRP    3.3 (+1.7)
HP     9.5 (new)
DP     0.7 (-5.7)
CDP  11.6 (new)
SDP   0.5 (-0.2)
JCP    3.6 (-0.9)

CDP gaining from DP SDP and JCP.  HP gaining from LDP and DP.  CDP level of support is shocking.
()



PR vote has a CDP surge

LDP     32.9
KP        8.5
PJK      0.9  (PJK only running in two PR zones so they will not get this vote share)
JRP      4.8
HP      15.0
CDP    14.6
SDP     1.0
JCP      5.4
()


Back in 2014 Sankei  poll had plus real results

LDP    37.5%  -> 33.1%
KP        8.2%  -> 13.7%
FPG      1.5%  ->   2.7%
JIP      10.7%  -> 15.7%
DPJ     13.2%  -> 18.3%
PLP       1.9%  ->  1.9%
SDP      1.4%  ->  2.5%
JCP       5.2%  -> 11.4%

FNN projection

LDP to get majority of 233 for sure.  Could get to its pre-election size (~290) if one adds in pro-LDP independents.   
HP in big trouble in Tokyo, will struggle to get to pre-election size of 57
CDP seat share to surge and will compete with HP for the position of largest opposition party
KP will struggle to get 34 seats it had before the election is called
JCP will struggle to get 21 seats it had before the election is called
JRP is in trouble in Osaka and will lose seats from the 14 it has before the election is called

New PR vote curvewith Sankei poll.  All parties rising due to election campaign.  CDP gaining from HP.  What is interesting is CDP is now much higher than DP was when the campaign started.
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Abe approval/disapproval curve stabilizing around net -5%
()

Sankei's poll on Koike approval show a gender gap

Overall it is 39.2/51.7

For men it is 36.8/56.6
For women it is 41.5/47.1

()

It is interesting that HP tends to gave a gender gap where men favor it more than women but the reverse is true for Koike even though Koike is head of HP.

Sankei's poll also showed that 40.5% would like to see a change in government, as opposed to 50.5% who would like to see the LDP stay in.

Also, wtf, how the hell is the CDP charging up so high, so quickly? Not even I would have said that would ever happened, and I would be a huge partisan hack when it comes to the CDP.

Also, Sankei is about the most far-right newspaper you will find in Japan, so that makes the results even more shocking.

I actually find it to be the other way around.  The different papers know what their biases are and often make up for, overdoing it in the process.    In every election cycle the more Left wing media outlets (Asahi and Kyodo) always have a more pro-LDP projection than the Right win media outlets (Nikkei and Sankei).

Looking at the  Sankei PR vote poll and comparing to the 2014  Sankei PR vote we can group the parties by ruling (LDP, KP), pro-ruling (FPG in 2014, PJK in 2017) and opposition (DPJ JIP SDP PLP JCP in 2014 and HP CDP JRP SDP JCP in 2017) then we get this chart

2014
Ruling bloc   45.7 -> 46.8
pro-Ruling     1.5  ->  2.7
Opposition   32.4  -> 49.8

Now for 2017 we can put in what the polls says and put in a good guess on result given the 2014 biases. 

Ruling bloc   41.4  -> 44.5 (most LDP-PJK marginal vote will flow to LDP)
pro-Ruling     0.9   ->  0.2  (PJK only running in 2 PR sections)
Opposition    40.8  -> 54.5

NHK poll: Party Support, 10/16

()

LDP: 32.8 (+1.6)
HP: 5.4 (+.6)
KP: 4.3 (+.5)
JCP: 3.4 (+.7)
CDP: 6.6 (+2.2)
JRP: 1.7 (+.4)
SDP: 0.6 (+.1)
Kokoro: 0.1 (+.1)
No Party: 34.0 (-5.1)
DP: 1.0 (-.6)
LP: 0.2 (+.2)

NHK Poll: Constitutional Amendment

()

Agree: 29
Disagree: 22
Don't care (Neither): 40

Here is the video with more polling results (In Japanese)
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20171016/k10011179591000.html?utm_int=all_side_ranking-social_001

NHK poll also has Abe Approval/Disapproval at 39(+2)/42(-1).  

This gives LDP an Aoki index of 71.8 (32.8+39).

Historically this sort of number meant defeat against a united non-JCP opposition and a marginal victory against a splintered one.  

In 2000 LDP-KP barely won a majority with a Aoki index of 50.4.  
In 2004 Koizumi barely won the Upper House election against an united non-JCP opposition led by DPJ with an Aoki index of 76.1
In 2007 Abe lost to a united non-JCP opposition led by DPJ with an Aoki index of 69.8
In 2010 DPJ lost the Upper House election against LDP-KP with an Aoki index of 68.8

These numbers does not bode well for LDP-KP whose path to significant victory only lies in the splintered nature of the HP-JCP and DCP vote base.  One wildcard is the DCP-JCP alliance and possible tactical voting between HP and DCP.

Asahi poll for Tokyo holds grim news for HP.

It has LDP well ahead in 12 seats, KP well ahead in 1, LDP marginally ahead in 7 and LDP-Opposition neck-to-neck in 5.  I am pretty sure the 5 are 3 DCP and 2 HP.

For party support in Tokyo (not PR) it has

LDP     29
KP        4
HP        6
CDP      7
JCP       5

Chart version of Mainichi projection

()

If you take their medium guess it comes out to

             District      PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          223         69      292             35.5%
KP               9         22        31             12.5%
JRP              5           6       11               5.5%
HP             17         31       48              17.5%
CDP           13         34       47              19.0%
SDP             1           1         2              1.5%
JCP              1         13       14               8.0%
Ind            20           0       20    most likely something like 4-5 pro-LDP and rest anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Well, if LDP-KP can get to 48% in terms of PR vote and the HP and CDP remain divided in the district seats then this sort of result seems quit possible and in fact likely.

To be fair the question is not "change in government" but "LDP centered administration"  vs "non-LDP centered administration."  The difference is there seems to be a lot of LDP voters that are not so happy with Abe.  They would be for a LDP centered administration even while disapproving of Abe.   How they vote would also be decisive. 

As for CDP surge a lot of it came from JCP and SDP so the CDP vote increase is really cannibalization of the Left.  A couple of weeks ago JCP polling was surging as Left DP voters went their way.  Now CDP took that vote back and are now eating into marginal JCP support.

Here is chart version

()

If you take the medium case it is

LDP     286
KP         33
NPD        1
JRP       10
HP        44
CDP      52
SDP        1
JCP       15
Ind       23   (4-5 are pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)



Back in 2014 they came out with
()

Which was vs final result

LDP    311   ->   290
KP       32   ->     35
PFG      2    ->       2
JIP      26    ->    41
DPJ     69   ->     73
PLP       2   ->       2
SDP      2   ->       2
JCP     15   ->     21
Ind       6   ->       9

So in 2014 Sankei overestimated LDP and underestimated the third pole party JIP.  That is one ray of hope for HP and JRP since they are third pole parties.  

Early voting hits 3.86%, a record high

()

Out of curiosity, what specifically makes the CDP to the left of the LDP or the HP? Obviously opposing constitutional revision and speaking about a more open society, but in terms of specific policy?

In theory also nuclear free Japan which in this case HP is also for but I think CDP is more hard-line on. Also on issue of security and civil liberties HP leans authoritarian and CDP is libertarian.   

Ah, I see. But Education, Health Care, Taxes, etc. those kind of domestic issues are not concerns for the left as much, like they are in Western Europe and North America?

山口(Yamaguchi) poll on party support.  Abe is from this prefecture which has always been the most pro-LDP prefecture. 

()

LDP    51
KP       3
JRP      1
HP       6
CDP     5
SDP     1
JCP      3

On these topics in Japan it is "we are all Social Democrats now."  Although sometimes Libertarian splinter Third Pole parties like YP (2009-2014) does come along once in a while to challenge this. 

Former Tokyo governor and famous leader of the Japan Far Right 石原 慎太郎(Ishihara Shintara) surprisingly tweeted  praise for CDP founder and leader of the Japan Center-Left 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio) for having political courage.  Of course Ishihara is an enemy of Koike who beat the LDP candidate in 2016 Tokyo governor race.   Ishihara's son and LDP MP 石原 伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru) organized that race for the LDP candidate telling Koike not to run for Tokyo Governor.

Ishihara must be taking pleasure at Edano's CDP pulling down HP's electoral prospects, especially in Tokyo.

Honest question: What are the chances of Abe not winning?

Depends on definition of winning.

If winning is LDP-KP majority at 233, then 0%.  If you exclude all the hack projections, my projection of LDP-KP at around 285 is pretty much the most negative for LDP-KP out there. 

If winning is LDP-KP getting enough seats for Abe to continue as PM which would be around 270 the chances are pretty much still near 0%

If winning is LDP-KP getting enough seats for Abe to win re-election as LDP leader in Sept 2018 which would be around 290 then I would have it at around 50/50 shot although rest of the Japanese political discourse has it around 10%

If winning is LDP-KP getting 2/3 majority of 312 then the current Japanese political discourse has it slightly less than 50/50

If winning is LDP-KP getting around the same ratio of seats as 2014 which would be around 320 then the current political discourse has it slightly greater than 50/50.

Turnout details from NHK poll

Certain to vote + voted early

Total electorate:  61%
Non-Aligned: 48%
Pro-Ruling parties: 70%
Pro-Opposition parties: 77%

Japanese are generally satisfied with their social support systems, and there is broad consensus on maintaining the status quo with only slight tweaks. Taxes are an area with more potential room for disagreement, but Japan has a relatively flat income distribution, Japan has a relatively progressive tax system for a developed country (top marginal rate income tax rate of 45%, has an estate tax up to 55%, no special treatment for dividends or capital gains, etc.), and there isn't much appetite for radical reconfigurations of the system one way or another.

Interesting, thanks for the information.

Also, as I don't think it has been mentioned yet, a couple of bigwigs from the DPJ and DP are now with the CDP - Naoto Kan and Banri Kaeida are both minted CDP candidates.

That's... rather high.

Projections from political analysts 小林吉弥(Kobayashi Yoshiya) who has an extreme projection of LDP-KP under-performance and a CDP surge on the PR section and 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) who has a more mainstream projection.  

()

I was able to break down their projection using my method of grouping along with PR seats


For 小林吉弥(Kobayashi Yoshiya) he sees a CDP and JCP surge who tactically vote for HP district candidates to defeat LDP.  HP voters does not seem to reciprocate leading to an more muted result for CDP in the district seats.

              District     PR     Seats        Implied PR vote
LDP          179         65      244             33.0%
KP               9         23        32             13.0%
NPD             0           0         0               0.3%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              9           7       16                5.5%
HP             50         23        73              14.0%
CDP           12         36        48              20.0%
SDP             1           1         2                1.5%
JCP              1         21       22               12.0%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        9           0         9     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  12           0       12      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      0          0         0      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465



For 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) also sees CDP surging past HP int the PR section but has less tactical voting between CDP and HP voting blocs leading to a significant LDP-KP victory although just missing the 2/3 majority.  He also has JCP overperforming expectations.

             District     PR     Seats        Implied PR vote
LDP          211        64       275             32.5%
KP               8         24        32             13.5%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              7           7       16                5.5%
HP             18         28        46              16.5%
CDP           12         32        44              18.0%
SDP             1           1         2                1.5%
JCP              1         19       20               11.5%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)      10           0       10     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  14           0       14      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      0          0         0      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Back in 2014 61% also claimed in the NHK poll that they are certain to vote.  Turnout was 52.7% partly because of a snowstorm. I think turnout will be higher this time even though there seems t be a hurricane coming.  The bad news for LDP is the hurricane seem to be hitting Southern Japan election day vs in 2014 the snowstorm seem to be hitting Northern Japan.

Paddypower odds

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/world-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=4912714

They have 1/3 for HP to be the second largest party after LDP and 5/1 for CDP to be the second largest party after HP. 

With the recent CDP surge I think this is mis-priced.  While HP is more likely to emerge with more seats than CDP the gap might be that large.

()

Average PR curve has CDP almost catching up and overtaking HP

Latest ニコニコ (NicoNico) projection has LDP-KP going from just below 2/3 to just above 2/3.  NicoNico pretty much has the best projection record last few election cycles.

()

              District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP          220        64       284             33.0%
KP               9         25        34             13.5%
JRP              5          7        12                5.5%
HP             18         28       46              16.5%
CDP           12         35       47              19.0%
SDP             1           0         1                1.0%
JCP              1         17       18              10.5%
Ind(LDP)      4           0         4      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(Oppn)  19           0       19      (ex-DP ex-LP or plus various anti-LDP elements)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

They mostly dialed back their JRP projection to be inline with other projections.   It also has CDP overtaking HP overall and especially in the PR section. 

They have LDP-KP PR at 46.5% with KP and JCP doing well so they must be expecting a lower turnout.  I insist turnout will be higher and that LDP-KP will be around 45% in PR and with better tactical voting in district seats will see LDP-KP with a lot less seats.

Hurricane to hit Southern Japan on 10/22

()

Turnout by age group since 1967

()

The 2014 turnout collapse is especially strong with the 30s and 40s age population.  Most of them are disillusioned marginal DPJ voters.

Shikoku News Agency poll and projection (pretty much like all the others).  I think this is done in conjunction with Kyodo News. 

PR vote which given the CDP numbers seem like it is an older poll

LDP   34.7
KP      8.0
JRP     1.8
HP    14.7
CDP    6.7
SDP    1.9
JCP     3.2

Seat projections  

          low-medium-high
LDP    265～281～296
KP         26～32～37
NPD          0～0～1
JRP         7～13～20
HP         42～52～66
CDP       37～48～58
SDP          1～2～2
JCP       10～14～19
Ind        17～23～28  (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)

It has LDP-KP at 313 seats, just over 2/3 majority.

Isn't Okinawa usually quite anti-LDP though?

Yes, but it is small compared to rest of Southern Japan in terms of population.

Last go2senkyo.com poll does show a shift toward LDP and CDP

()

PR vote  LDP and CDP increase while HP falls
LDP    ~37
KP       ~7
HP     ~13
CDP   ~20
JCP     ~7


()
District vote - clear swing toward LDP
LDP    ~42
HP      ~13
CDP    ~15
JCP      ~7


()
Hope for CDP   Yes/No  ~33/~45


()
Hope for HP   Yes/No    ~18/~60


()
Hope for HP (Tokyo)   ~22/~60


()
Abe approval 50(+4)/50(-4)

Latest and last JX Tokyo poll

()

HP is falling further behind as CDP surges

LDP   30(+1)
KP       5(-1)
HP    16(-2)
CDP   23(+5)
JCP     8(+1)

With these numbers I suspect HP might get a total of zero seats in Tokyo FPTP district seats with CDP gaining at least 3-4 seats from DP's 1 last time.

Tokyo News national projection

()

LDP    281
KP       34
NPD       1
JRP      15
HP       47
CDP     46
SDP       2
JCP      14
Ind      25  (4-5 pro-LDP rest anti-LDP)

The low JCP numbers seems to suggest high turnout but KP numbers are too good for that.  Most likely a low turnout election plus a bleeding of JCP support over to CDP.

It is clear that Koike had totally bungled this election and most likely blown any chances she has in the medium and most likely term at becoming PM.  One again Abe timed the election as to eliminate his most dangerous rival before she becomes a threat.  Even if Abe loses his 2/3 majority it is worth it to kill of any chance of Koike becoming a national rival of Abe in 2018. 

Two factors hurt Koike.  The first one which is the timing of the election is not anything Koike could have done anything about.  The main problem here is that she is trapped.  The way to create a splash for HP is for her to take over as leader.  But that leaves open the criticism that she is abandoning the citizens of Tokyo. 

The other factor was something of Koike's own making.  When DP disbanded and asked to join HP en masse to run on the HP ticket Koike insisted on a litmus test on Constitutional reform and refused to admit anyone DP member that had leadership roles of DPJ/DP in the past.  What that is logical to create a brand for HP and go after the LDP Center-Right vote what she could have done was to make a deal with these DP members that she would not admit.  She could have said "we cannot admit you but, wink wink, you can run as an Independent and HP will run a candidate against you."   She did this for some DP members but did not for a large number of them forcing them to form and gather behind CDP which now is eating into HP's space.  HP lost both ways.  HP failed to win a significant amount of the LDP vote and lost the Center-Left and now Center space to CDP.

The first thing I think of when I read "Party of Hope" is Danganronpa :P

Who was the rival in 2014?

I mean, theoretically Kaieda was. But practically, he had no real rivalry in 2014.

Huh. The Koike hype lasted even less than the Schulz train.

Yukiko Kada x Yuriko Koike yuri dojinshi pls

I misspoke.  There was not rival in 2014.  But the economy was heading South and it was clear that 2015 would be a tough year.  So Abe called a surprise election can caught DPJ and JIP totally off guard.

Latest Kyodo projection. They dialed back LDP seats by 8 from a week ago, mostly on the PR section.

()

              District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          218         63      281             32.0%
KP               7         25        32             14.0%
NPD             0           0         0               0.3%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              5           8       13               5.5%
HP             19         33        52             19.0%
CDP           16         32        48             18.5%
SDP             1           1         2               1.5%
JCP              0         14       14               9.0%
Ind            23           0       23   (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

It has KP losing 2 district seats which is a shock. It also has JCP with 0 district seats which implies that it loses Okinawa 1st district to LDP. 

Overall this projection seems to be herding toward all the others where everyone is converging toward LDP-KP at 115-120.

Distribution of JCP and KP PR vote in 2014

JCP
()



KP
()

I didn't know JCP had such strength on the south shore of Shikoku. Any idea why? Doesn't seem like a naturally JCP area (quite traditional).

Summery of media projections for district seats.

For HP the list below sorted by likelihood of HP victory.  Orange or yellow means HP ahead.  It shows HP could win up to 32 seats (if we take the super-set of the projections) but the individual projections has HP winning ranging from 16 to 26.
()




Same for DCP/JCP/SDP and various opposition independents (including pro-HP ex-DP independents).  Orange or yellow shows opposition ahead.  It shows this bloc can win up to 43 seats in the most optimistic case but individual projections has this bloc winning ranging from 28 to 35 seats.
()
()




Same for JRP.  Orange or yellow shows JRP lead. It shows JRP can win up to 7 seats in the most optimistic case but individual projections has JRP winning ranging from 2 to 6 seats.
()




What is interesting is my current projections has HP at 31 district seats,  DCP/JCP/SDP and various opposition independents at 43 seats and JRP at 7 seats.  All of them at exactly the outer band of the most optimistic case for the anti-LDP party.  Going by media polls and analysis my projection is theoretically possible but very unlikely.

That is 高知(Kōchi) which is the second most pro-JCP prefecture next to 京都(Kyoto).  I am not sure why but I suspect like Kyodo, the local unions has been more aligned with JCP historically versus SDP or DPJ.  So SDP and DPJ/DP has historically been weaker here and more of the labor based Center-Left vote has gone JCP.

I think the day after the election, most of the HP winners (plus pro-HP independents winners) will leave  HP and either join CDP or form a new Centrist party.  From their point of view Kokie did nothing to get them elected and has thrown away a good hand in this election campaign.  I suspect a week after the election HP will have something like 5-10 MPs at best.

So, CDP will be by far the largest opposition party in your view, if not on election night itself, within a week?

Japanese voters are either incredibly fickle or these pollsters need to get better at polling approval ratings.

Yep. I am pretty sure about that.  The level of anger in the HP ex-DP candidates, which is the vast majority of the HP candidates, at Koike is getting pretty high.  Right now no one wants to blow this up less it leads to a HP collapse and all of them losing. 

Ironically I still think the prospects of HP candidates where they do not face a DCP or ex-DP independent rival are still better than what CW says.  The CDP surge voters will eventually vote for them versus JCP in order to defeat LDP.  But all these HP winners will know that this is what took place and not because of Koike.

CDP PR vote now overtakes that of HP

()

New Asahi poll

Abe approval/disapproval 38(-2)/40(+2)

Do you want Abe to continue as PM Yes/No 34/51 (wow! yet LDP-KP will win a solid victory)

PR vote

LDP     34(-1)
KP        7(--)
JRP       4(--)
HP       11(-1)
CDP    13(+6)
SDP      1(--)
JCP      5(-1)

()

It seems it is less about HP losing support to CDP than both HP and JPC lose some support to CDP but CDP also gains from undecided.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/ldp-heading-to-best-japan-election-result-since-1986-poll-shows

"Japan’s Ruling Party Is Heading to Best Election Result Since 1986, Poll Says"

What Bloomberg news is doing is taking the most optimistic media projections and then come out with the headline.  Hidden in this story is that Abe approval is actually under water and that the most optimistic projections in 2014 has had LDP winning over 310 seats and then the LDP ended up with 290.

佐賀(Saga), which is deep Southern Japan, poll.  Saga is one of the most pro-LDP prefectures and LDP-KP usually gets around 10% higher than national average

()

PR vote

LDP   34.0
KP      6.6
JRP     1.6
HP    14.2
CDP    7.2
SDP    1.3
JCP     2.5

Which is actually a pretty positive poll for HP and not so great poll for LDP.  It could be an older poll.  Or more likely this shows that in Northern Japan (including Tokyo and Osaka) it is CDP > HP in terms of PR vote and in Southern Japan it is HP > CDP in terms of PR vote.

I'm pretty confident that most of the HP will fold into the CDP at some point after the election. The CDP proved itself competent campaigners and a competent party, beyond just the Communists switching to them, they are also bringing on some undecideds, which is huge.

I am pretty impressed with what the CDP pulled off since they had no resources.  To be fair DP leader 前原 誠司 (Maehara Seiji) helped too.  What he offered Koike was "if you take all the DP candidates, then you get all of the DP campaign funds, if you take some of the DP candidates then you get some of the DP campaign funds."  So when Koike only took some of the DP candidates, Mehara, despite being from the DP Right, routed funds to ex-DP but now CDP candidates since they were part of the original DP lineup. 

Same poll also had Tokyo seat projections
()

          District          PR
LDP     18-23          6-8
KP         1-1            1-2
HP        0-2            3-4
CDP      1-5            4-6
JDP       0-0            1-2


My current projections are on the negative side of their projection for LDP although I am making the bold assumption that the CDP PR surge voter would still vote tactically HP over JCP to defeat LDP.  If they do not do that in sufficient numbers then it will be HP 0 district seats.

          District          PR
LDP       18               6
KP          1               2
HP          2               3
CDP       4                4
JDP        0                2

Latest projection from me

I still hold to the 59% turnout.  JRP, JCP, and HP PR vote share dialed back and CDP moved upward.  I still think under these circumstances HP is under-polling so I have the gap between CDP and HP as pretty close.  The fall of HP pretty much finishes HP off from several marginal seats but I still have the CDP surge still voting HP in district seats.  LDP-KP at 289 seats which is still a minor setback for Abe.

              District     PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          195         62      257             31.8%
KP               9         23        32             12.8%
NPD             0           1         1               0.4%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              7           8       15                6.2%
HP             30         31        61              18.2%
CDP           16         35        51              19.2%
SDP             1           1         2                1.5%
JCP              1         15       16                9.1%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        9           0         9     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(OPPN)  13           0       13      (Joint opposition candidates)
Ind(CDP)      1          0         1      (pro-CDP independents w/o support of HP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465


If we take the PR vote and categorize them in historical perspective since 2000 we have

              LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       44.66              25.01             20.67              9.11

Which would make this year similar to 2013 but only with LDP-KP somewhat weaker and Third Pole stronger.  This chart also puts the CDP surge in perspective.  It is merely reversion to the mean if we view HP as a Third Pole party.  

Follow-up to my earlier question: If Abe has no chance of actually being voted out, what are the chances that this ends up like the UK, as in, a win in terms of a majority but an embarrassment politically?

For that to take place I think LDP-KP has to be driven below 261 seats which means they no longer have a majority in all committees.   If that were to take place then Abe might be dumped right away.  The chances of that is nearly zero, even with my projections.   I think if LDP-KP were below 280 then that will look like a significant setback so that Abe might be dumped in Sept 2018 LDP Prez elections.  That seems possible using my projections but nearly impossible if you go with various media house projections.

秋田(Akita) PR poll.   This prefecture is the strongest LDP prefecture in the North and LDP-KP tends to win around 5% more than national average.

()


LDP     40.1
KP        5.4
JRP       1.5
HP      20.4
CDP      7.1
SDP      0.5
JCP       4.5

Overall a pretty positive poll for LDP under the circumstances.  CDP seems low when compared to other PR polls that show a CDP surge.  This prefecture is quite rural so it could be the CDP surge are in the urban areas which means that HP still significantly stronger than CDP when rural areas.

山形(Yamagata) PR poll.  Yamagata is a Northern rural prefecture that has been very strong for LDP but has been trending away from LDP.  At the PR level LDP-KP tend to be around 4%-5% above the national level.

()

LDP    36.4
KP       7.3
JRP      1.2
HP     21.1
CDP   11.0
SDP     1.6
JCP      3.9

HP seems high relative the recent national polls.  It could be an older poll and like the 秋田(Akita) poll shows that in rural Japan the CDP surge is more muted.

Well, CDP didn't field any candidates in Akita and Yamagata so HP will be higher than CDP in those states. Also, LDP upper house candidate in Yamagata lost to a joint opposition candidate by 21% points in last year's election. Regardless of how strong a candidate is, a 21%-point loss means that LDP is quite unpopular in that state.

福島(Fukushima) PR poll.  Fukushima is a fairly anti-LDP Northern Japan prefecture that tends to give LDP-KP 4%-5% less votes than the national average.

()

LDP     36.3
KP        6.5
JRP      1.4
HP      15.4
CDP    10.1
SDP     1.1
JCP      4.6

Pretty positive poll for LDP.  Again HP stronger than CDP.  It seems that in the 東北(Tohoku) region HP is just stronger than CDP unlike Tokyo and most likely the Tokyo suburb Kanto regions.

Same poll breaks out the PR vote by certain age groups

()

18-29 year olds   LDP 41 HP 13 CDP 6
60s                    LDP 27  HP 10 CDP 20

The youth clearly lean Right while people in the 60s lean left.  They do not show it but I am sure if they had result for 70+ it will swing back to being pro-LDP again.

Of course one can flip it around and say perhaps that because HP became strong in 東北(Tohoku) that is why the entire DP organization went over to HP where as in other urban areas some of the DP organization went over to CDP.   

As for 2016 Yamagata Upper House election that race saw some of the greatest ticket splitting I have seen.  The common opposition independent candidate (a former DPJ MP herself that was barely beaten in 2013 running for re-election in a very strong LDP year) was supported by DP SDP LP and JCP and won by a landslide (21% like you said.)  But at the same time the LDP-KP won over 54% of the PR vote in Yamagata.  It seems that the Yamagata LPD rural vote was angry with Abe about TPP and voted against LDP in the district vote to show their anger but voted LDP in the PR vote (I guess LDP is generic and not necessary Abe in their eyes.)  TPP is less of an issue this year but economic stagnation is.  The trend in Yamagata is going to be against LDP.

The magazine 週刊文春(bunshun) came out with their projection.  This magazine is fairly right wing and usually comes out with fairly anti-LDP projections.  This fits my view that various media outlets overcompensates for their known house effects.  

()

             District     PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          189         62      251             31.5%
KP               8         22        30             12.5%
NPD             0           1         1               0.4%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              9         12       21                9.0%
HP             34         32        66              18.0%
CDP           17         29        46              16.5%
SDP             1           1         2                1.5%
JCP              1         17       18               10.0%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(OPPN)  25           0       25      (anti-LDP independents)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465
 
This is fairly similar to my projection other than LDP and CDP are a bit weaker than my projection while JCP and JRP are a bit stronger.

Ibaraki News came out with a PR poll for 茨城(Ibaraki) and also a PR vote share/seat projection for the entire North Kanto PR section that Ibaraki is part of.  Ibaraki is a very strong pro-LDP prefecture for a prefecture in Northern Japan.  It usually votes on PR 4%-5% than national average for LDP-KP

()

The PR poll for Ibaraki is

LDP      41.7
KP         5.2
JRP        0.4
HP       16.5
CDP       6.0
SDP       0.4
JCP        5.0

For North Kanto PR region their projection are
             
            Vote share      Seats
LDP         33.83%           7
KP           13.89%           3
JRP            3.70%           0
HP           21.32%           4
CDP         15.71%           3
SDP           1.80%           0
JCP            8.75%           2

which is pretty close to my current projection for North Kanto which is somewhat weaker for LDP and a bit stronger for everyone else.

            Vote share      Seats
LDP         31.23%           6
KP           14.27%           3
JRP            4.41%           0
HP           22.67%           5
CDP         16.02%           3
SDP           1.04%           0
JCP            9.94%           2

Final Nikkei projection which is slightly more pro-LDP than a week ago but the Nikkei projection has been the most anti-LDP of this election cycle.  They now have LDP-KP at 297 which at this stage is not even that far off from my LDP-KP at 289 seats.

()

LDP      262
KP         35
JRP        10
HP         55
CDP       54
SDP         1
JCP        18
Ind        30 (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)

KP at 35 and JCP at 18 implies LP at 26 PR seats and JCP at 17 PR seats.  This implies that Nikkei is expecting a lower turnout election (52%-54%) than my high turnout election (59%-60%) assumption.

Yomiuri analysis of 114 "battleground" districts.

()


A week ago the distribution was
             
         ahead    neck-to-neck       behind
LDP       4             100                   6
HP         0              54                 21
CDP       3              22                   4


Now it is

         ahead    neck-to-neck       behind
LDP     16               80                  14
HP         2              42                 21
CDP       6              18                   5


LDP and CDP gained ground and HP lost ground.

It is interesting that out of 114 battleground districts LDP is in the fray in 110 of them.  The other 4 must be 山梨(Yamanashi) 2nd where two LDP candidates are running both as independents, 岡山   (Okayama) 3rd with 2 LDP independents,  北海道(Hokkaido) 10th where it is KP vs CDP, and 神奈川   (Kanagawa) 6th where it is also KP vs CDP vs JRP.

While there is some risk that KP will lose these two seats all the noise about these two seats being neck-to-neck feels like KP drama to make sure their vote base and organization goes all out to make sure they win.  In the end KP will win all their seats.

It seems the hurricane will hit Southern Japan at 9pm 10/22, after the polls close.  But it seems it will be raining across Japan the entire election day.

()

LDP seat projections in 2014 by media house

NicoNico   289
Asahi       305
Nikkei      308
Yomiuri    308
Sankei     311
Chunichi  314
Mainichi    320

Result:  290

Of course I missed on the other side.  My projection was LDP 249.



This time it seems to be


Nikkei      262
Yomiuri    270
Asahi       275
Chunichi   275
NicoNico   284
Sankei     286
Mainichi   292

My projection is 257

How to explain all this?

I think I've never seen breakdown by age groups before.

Yomiuri final poll for PR (difference from a week ago)

LDP   33（+1）
KP    　8（+1）
JRP     5（+1）
HP　   13（-3）
CDP   17（+3）
JCP      6（--）

CDP gaining from HP.  Rest are just slight increases for other parties as the election gets closer and some of the undecided break for one party or another.  Results pretty similar to Asahi poll.

Japanese youth tend to prioritize conformity and social acceptance.  LDP seems to represent status quo, stability, and social acceptance.    As they get older and face more difficult economic problems then some of them start to turn against LDP.

Same poll has

Abe approval/disapproval   38/47

Party support

LDP    38
KP        5
HP      10
CDP    15
JCP      5

PR vote  (which seems to be the clone of Yomiuri PR vote)
LDP    33
KP       8
JRP      5
HP     13
CDP   17
JCP     5

PR vote curve.  CDP surge continues as HP slowly declines.
()

go2senkyo.com PR poll also gives breakdown by PR section.   I am surprised how weak JRP is in  近畿(Kinki).  

                                                       LDP    HP    KP    JCP    CDP     JRP
Total                                                ~37  ~13   ~7    ~7     ~20    
北海道 (Hokkaido)                             ~30    ~7    ??    ~10    ~25    
東北(Tohoku)                                    ~35   ~15  ~10  ~10    ~17    
北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto)       ~37   ~13  ~10  ~10    ~17    
南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto)  ~30  ~15   ~10  ~10   ~17    
東京 (Tokyo)                                     ~37   ~15    ~7   ~7    ~17
北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu)               ~37   ~15   ??     ??     ~17    
東海 (Tokai)                                      ~37   ~15   ~7    ~7    ~20    
近畿 (Kinki)                                      ~35   ~13   ??     ~7    ~15    ~7
中国(Chugoku)                                 ~40    ~13   ~7    ??    ~15      
四国 (Shikoku)                                  ~35   ~13  ~13   ??     ~15      
九州 (Kyūshū)                                   ~38    ~13  ~10  ??     ~15    

Total
()

北海道 (Hokkaido)
()

東北(Tohoku)  
()

北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto)  
()

南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto)
()

東京 (Tokyo)
()

北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu)
()

東海 (Tokai)
()

近畿 (Kinki)
()

中国(Chugoku)
()

四国 (Shikoku)
()

九州 (Kyūshū)
()

And those who are 70+ support LDP just because elderly people in general tend to be conservative? How do you think, support for opposition peaks in 60-69 or in some younger age group?

Political analyst 三浦博史(Miura Hiroshi) final projection

              District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          217         68      285             35.0%
KP               9         24        33             13.5%
NPD             0           0         0               0.3%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              7           8       15               6.0%
HP             18         24        42             14.0%
CDP           10         36        46             20.0%
SDP             1           1         2               1.5%
JCP              1         15       16               9.5%
Ind            26           0       26   (4-5 pro-LDP, rest anti-LDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

Which given the LDP-KP PR vote share seems at least internally consistent. 

There seems to be a surge in early voting.  Part of it is because of greater interest in the election and partly because of the likelihood of rain election day due to the hurricane.

()

I am not sure.  I have seen data in the past that showed this


I suspect it is because people in their 60s came of age in the 1970s during a Leftist surge in Japan and people in the 70s came of age in the 1960s which is the heyday of the Japanese economic boom which many associate with LDP.

兵庫(Hyōgo) poll on level of interest in the election.  Chart also shows similar polls in the past (red line) followed by real turnout (blue line.) 

()

This would suggest that turnout should surge back up to 2012 levels.  This is somewhat surprising as  兵庫(Hyōgo) has become fairly noncompetitive this election cycle with HP JRP and DCP-JCP all going their separate ways giving the LDP an easy victory.  Of  course there will be rain election day.

Who usually does better with early voting?

For sure all parties other than LDP KP and JCP.  Higher early voting for now is really indicative of higher turnout which tends to help non-JCP opposition parties.

Thanks! Initially I thought there is a huge age gap, but now it seems that voter preferences are basically uniform except 20s and 60s.

If CDP and HP were magically merged into one party with one list, and merging all of their support together, what would the results look like?

See: Democratic Party, DPJ (2014 and 2016), worse if Koike was backing them, as she has turned out to be a toxic influence. The new party would lose the soft LDP support that the HP has and the fairly substantial left-wing vote that the CDP has.