Talk Elections

In just under a year from now, New Brunswick goes to the polls.  While not as much polling as say in the Ontario election in June, there is some so we can get some trends.

Liberals:  Maintain a double digit lead in most polls although have fallen into the 40s while were in the 50s last year.  Approval rating of Brian Gallant is a bit over the map with some like Angus-Reid showing him sub 30 which would mean trouble, while others like CRA showing over 50% which would mean likely re-election.  In addition the Liberals tend to run up the margins in the Francophone parts so if the PCs and Liberals were tied in popular vote, the PCs would probably win more seats due to better voter efficiency.  Still I would say at this point the Liberals are the favourites, but no guarantee they will win.

PCs:  Trailing in the polls, but at least now in the 30s instead of 20s.  Also it seems in Atlantic Canada in recent provincial elections, the PCs have often gone up by 10% or more so a similar swing to what we saw in the recent Nova Scotia election would be enough for them to win.  I am guessing it is maybe voter confusion as the federal Tories still remain deeply unpopular due to the unpopularity of the Harper government, but the provincial Tories which are still your traditional Red Tories like most conservatives in Atlantic Canada so once the campaign gets under way and people see the provincial PCs are still Red Tories and have not swung to the right like their federal counterparts many traditional Tories return.  Still I think they have an uphill battle to win, but cannot be ruled out.  Also due to greater voter efficiency I think they have a better chance at winning the most seats than the popular vote.

Third Parties: NDP, Green, and People's Alliance aren't likely to win more than a seat or two so they will only matter if it's a nailbiter like BC was in which case they may form the balance of power but with both the Liberals and PCs being fairly centrist I suspect whichever party wins the most seats will get to form the government.  I would be shocked if the second place one gets propped up like the NDP in BC is.

Any thoughts?

Only thing I would add is that the People's Alliance leader might win his seat. He barely lost last time, so any slip up by the Tories could give it to him.

The NDP has a new leader after centrist New Democratic Party leader Dominic Cardy stepped down amid infighting.  The new leader has a decent resume I think (former business woman in the technology field and former Chair of the Ottawa School Board) however, she only moved back to the Atlantic a few years ago.

I have the distinct pleasure of having voted for the NDP's current leader when she was my school trustee back in 2010. :D

Interestingly, chairing the OCDSB covers about the same number of voters as all of New Brunswick.

I think the Greens, People's Alliance, and NDP may each win a seat or two, but doubt either is in the position to go much beyond.  In New Brunswick the NDP has always been a continuous third party and never gone much beyond a seat thus my skepticism.  That being said if super close a minority is always possible albeit very unlikely.  On the political spectrum the People's Alliance seems to lean the right while NDP and Greens to the left but with the PCs being Red Tories and Liberals being more centrist than progressive the two parties don't seem that far apart on the political spectrum unlike in other provinces. 

Keep in mind that the most successful "third party" in recent NB history was the Confederation of Regions, who got 21% and 8 seats in 1991, good enough for Official Opposition.  (They lost them all in 1995.  Though not as aggressively anti-bilingual, the People's Alliance *might* be considered as something of a successor.)

Also re the NDP, ever since the 90s Alexa leadership they seem to have been stronger federally than provincially--they actually won *two* NB seats in 1997, and IIRC didn't sink below 15% in any NB riding in 2011, and the Yvon Godin "Bloc Acadien" effect was still evident in 2015 (though not enough to win seats)

Good point and you are right the NDP did do somewhat better federally and in fact got 30% in the 2011 election in New Brunswick, but for whatever reason they have never managed to replicate that provincially.  As for COR, it seems the bilingualism issue has died down a bit and most have returned to the PCs although interestingly enough Mainstreet which showed the Liberals 20 points ahead showed them only 3 points ahead amongst Anglophones so there could be a strong linguistic divide in voting patterns.

The language issue has completely died down in the last 20 years. McKenna and Lord both took a pragmatic approach to the issue that placated both sides. There's still the odd agitator here and there, but for the most part nobody's looking to reopen that debate.

I can't put a handle on this one this far out. Higgs definitely has the policy chops - he was very much a straight shooter as finance minister and didn't care who he pissed off. If elections were only fought on that, he'd win in a landslide. But he hasn't come across as an effective campaigner, even during the PC leadership race. Gallant is the exact opposite. He had (still has) no discernible policy beyond "do what it takes to get elected".

The Liberals' biggest scandal to date has been the property tax disaster. The province calculates it on behalf of municipalities in NB, and they've switched to an automated GIS-based system that assumed renovations took place that never did, which meant assessments for some home owners almost doubled. The province has spent millions of dollars the last few months in rebates.

The thing that should scare the Liberals is how thin their vote is in anglo ridings, and their plans to keep it are becoming more and more transparent. A recent cabinet shuffle promoted Andrew Harvey (who against all odds won his rural anglo seat by <2%); and Gallant named himself regional minister for the Saint John/Fundy coast area, where 2 of their MLAs won by less than 2% (plus a 3rd they later lost in a byelection). It's also the same reason the Liberals gave Stephen Horsman, their only Fredericton MLA, as many cushy cabinet positions as they could.

As for the smaller parties....David Coon is a shoe-in to get re-elected (I live in his riding). Jennifer McKenzie hasn't announced where she's running yet, but I can't really see her winning anywhere she'd be seen as an outsider.

Kris Austin's seat could go either way. He would have won easily last time if the riding was just the Minto/Chipman area, but the parts of Fredericton attached to his riding didn't give him the time of day. But they are some of the most working-class neighbourhoods of the city, so I can see him taking it with an effective enough campaign. Just not sure if he has it in him.

What issues will Higgs push?

He's very much a "fiscal responsibility" guy, which put him in hot water with the public sector unions as finance minister. He wanted to do a straight austerity budget in 2011 but Alward talked him out of it.

Here's a good writeup on him and his beliefs from the leadership race:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/blaine-hills-pc-leadership-1.3808866

What do you think the chances of are of the Liberals winning the popular vote but losing the election.  It seems that the Liberals have a massive lead amongst Francophone voters but amongst Anglophones it is much closer thus why I bring up the idea of the Liberals winning the popular vote but losing seat wise.  I think the PCs winning seat wise is a lot more doable than winning the popular vote although both are possible and more likely than not neither will happen.

That may be the PCs' best chance of winning. The Liberals are still up decently in the polls, but a lot of it seems to be Clinton-style running up the score in their safe Francophone seats.

They have very few safe seats (maybe 1-2) in anglophone regions and won most of them in 2014 by slim margins. The slightest mistake will sink them.

I went to a friend's wedding in New Brunswick yesterday. When the conversation turned to politics, the guests overwhelmingly supported the Tories. Of course my friend married into a family of church going Baptists, so my sample might be a tad unrepresentative :P

New Brunswick Baptists supporting the Tories!? huge shoker! (sic)

If the race tightened a little bit, I could see the Tories losing  Edmunston-Madawaska Centre but picking up marginal Anglo seats like Carleton-Victoria, Charlotte-Campobello, Fredericton North, and Saint John Harbour. That would give them a slim majority, and its quite conceivable that they could dothat while losing the PV by 5%.

Truly an unexpected turn of events.

Will Dominic Cardy be running?  I can see him going for Fred N or StJ Harbour, at least if he's representing a Red Tory faction...

He hasn't ruled it out. My guess is if he runs anywhere, it's Fredericton North. It's a suburban riding in his hometown that's perfect for his brand of politics.

MQO poll a year out: 41-36-12-7.

http://mqoresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Atlantic-Matters-Report-NB-Q4-2017.pdf

Looks like a Liberal win is not a sure thing, although would be interested to see linguistic breakdowns.  If the Liberals are still running up the margins in Francophone areas, this might be enough for the PCs to pull off a win due to greater voter inefficiency.  Noticed in both PEI and New Brunswick, the Conservatives federally up slightly but still way behind the federal Liberals, however only 5-7% points below their provincial counterparts but weaker splits.  If it is 53% Liberal to 31% Conservative that would probably be enough for the Tories to narrowly win Tobique-Mactaquac, Fundy-Royal, and New Brunswick Southwest, while they will need to close the gap further to win Fredericton, Miramichi-Grand Lake, and Saint John-Rothesay.  The other four they are too far behind to have any realistic chance in 2019.  I do think the small business changes faced a greater backlash in Atlantic Canada though than in some other provinces.

Nonetheless I still think of the premiers facing elections next year, Gallant is probably in the best position.  Wynne is likely to lose, Couillard will face an uphill battle to hold his majority although still has a greater than even chance of winning a plurality of seats.  All three provincial elections next year involve Liberal governments so I think the Liberal dominance of provincial governments will be weakened next year, but doubt they will lose all three.  If you count the CAQ as conservative, it's possible but not likely the conservatives will sweep all three, although I think they should pick up at least one.  If they did win all three it would mean only PEI, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and Yukon have Liberal governments and population wise that is less than what live in provinces with NDP governments (BC and Alberta).  If the Tories or their equivalent win all three that would mean you would go from having only 6% of Canadians living in provinces with conservative governments to over 2/3 and probably jumping to over 75% the next year as Alberta seems likely to swing rightward in 2019.

This can't be....can it?

http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/media_advisories/media_advisory.2017.10.1361.html

Maybe he should talk to Theresa May or David Peterson or anyone who worked with the late Jim Prentice.  Each of them called early elections opportunisticly and all lost or did much worse than expected in the case of Theresa May who should have been able to beat hard left Jeremy Corbyn in a landslide but barely scraped by.

Any chance Brian Gallant is meeting with the lieutenant-governor to tender his resignation as Premier, as he steps aside for a more policy-oriented Liberal MLA as the Liberal poll numbers, still formidable, begin to falter?  I'm thinking Kevin Rudd-Julia Gillard 2010, only voluntary and amicable.

I doubt it. Looking back, Gallant getting married last weekend and inexplicably releasing a TV attack ad on Higgs should have been a sign of something.

(How'd that be for a honeymoon? A bus trip to Bathurst.)

I've heard he might be proroguing as there is expected to be a throne speech on Tuesday so that is a way to reset the government's agenda.

If he calls an election, expect an NDP government ;)

Doubt it, but its true early opportunistic elections have produced NDP governments in places no one thought, i.e. Ontario in 1990 and Alberta in 2015.  Also across the pond Britain almost got a Labour government despite the fact they started with a 20 point deficit in the polls (I don't think they've ever a campaign with that big a deficit in the polls).  If anything I think an early call would probably help the PCs who are within striking distance of the Liberals if you believe the most recent MQO poll.

I told my wife about this and she forbade me from running for office. :P

Also, why would Gallant want an election? He doesn't exactly have a massive lead, and the federal party is getting egg on their face right now.

winking face = not serious

But hey, if this does happen, I can see a couple NDP seats coming out of this if they play their cards right. They probably won't.

Only if people still really hate the Tories there. If so, the Greens doing well is more likely.

Over tax changes or Energy East Pipeline or both?  I've heard the cancellation of the Energy East Pipeline is going over well in New Brunswick.  Also the small business tax changes apparently faced more of a backlash in Atlantic Canada than most of the country.  My understanding is business ownership tends to be higher in smaller communities than large ones and in most parts of the country that is a non-issue as rural areas generally vote Tory elsewhere, but in Atlantic Canada they are quite rural yet go Liberal.

I was thinking of tax changes + Morneau's terrible transparency optics, but more generally there are a lot fewer good vibes around the Liberal brand than this time last year.

Statement on Gallant LG visit refers to governments mandate as accomplished. However the statement also makes mention of a throne speech on Tuesday. PC leader Blaine Higgs is apparently preparing for an early election.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-election-premier-gallant-lieutenant-governor-1.4365236 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-election-premier-gallant-lieutenant-governor-1.4365236)

No early election. Gallant trolled us all.

https://t.co/LbiKHs8HGp

Jennifer McKenzie is running in Saint John Harbour, which is Elizabeth Weir's old seat and where the Liberal incumbent is retiring.

With Fredericton South belonging to the Greens, this is the closest thing to an NDP-friendly seat in the province. It includes both one of those gentrifying hipster districts and the poorest neighbourhood in NB.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/ndp-leader-running-saint-john-harbour-1.4408848

Smart move. If only Cardy had thought of that.

Mainstreet: 41-40-10-9.

https://www.scribd.com/document/369752122/Mainstreet-NB-Jan23a2018

Like I said above, these numbers could very well translate to a PC majority since Liberal support is so concentrated.

Certainly using the past election, this would mean a PC majority as the PC vote is more efficient.  Liberals tend to win by much bigger margins in the Francophone portions while PCs win Anglophone areas (2/3 of the province) by narrower margins so more efficient.  Still polls are a bit all over the place so probably need to see a few more to see if this a trend or outlier.  I did run Mainstreet's federal numbers in a simulator and despite the 19 point Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada (I suspect it is a big tighter in New Brunswick as Tories always do better there than other Atlantic provinces, but Liberals still probably ahead) and it showed 6 Tories (Tobique-Mactaquac, New Brunswick Southwest, Fundy-Royal, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Saint John-Rothesay, and Fredericton) so even federally its possible Liberals could win New Brunswick by 10 points yet only win 4 seats to Tories 6 seats if you apply a uniform swing.  Oddly enough Bernard Lord in 2006 won the popular vote yet lost the election, but it seems since him, PC support has cratered in Francophone areas, but held up in Anglophone areas thus the difference.

Why are polling firms coming out with such differing numbers for Provincial elections these days?  I guess the Quebec numbers are fairly consistent between the firms but Ontario and New Brunswick are very different.  There was also the Calgary Mayoral election last year with wildly divergent numbers.

For Ontario, Campaign research seems to be the outlier.  Ipsos is a bit off but too much and Innovative research as well as Nanos fairly close.  I find methodology is the biggest reason.

PCs strongest with IVR; CATI somewhere in between while weakest with online polls.

Liberals do best with CATI and online polls while weakest with IVR

NDP do best with IVR and online polls while worst with CATI.

In the case of New Brunswick, Mainstreet's poll last year closely matches Corporate Research while their more recent is similar to the last MQO research which is out again with another one this Thursday.  I think the volatility in New Brunswick is more less philosophical differences between two main parties.  The PCs are still very much your Red Tory types similar to the old PCs federally thus they have a similar base to the federal Tories, but much wider appeal amongst swing voters than the federal Tories do.  The Liberals are more centrist like your Chretien/Martin types as opposed to progressive like Trudeau so again its quite easy to swing between the two of them whereas federally the ideological differences are wide enough you won't see as big a swing. 

Same reason swings between Democrats and Republicans in the US are much weaker than in the past and why volatility in British polls is much less than a decade ago when philosophical differences were smaller.

The PCs' only Francophone MLA (and longtime Lord and Alward cabinet minister), Mado Dubé, is stepping down.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/progressive-conservative-mla-madeleine-dub%C3%A9-1.4534868

It's looking more and more like the election will be fought along language lines. The PCs have no real foothold in francophone areas anymore (plus Higgs' French is barely passable), while the Liberals' only real safe anglophone MLAs are Rick Doucet, Chris Collins and maybe Cathy Rogers.

The Liberals best path to victory is to flip urban seats in Saint John and Fredericton, and with where they've been spreading around the goodies lately, they're trying.

Are there more anglophone ridings or francophone ones?

Anglophone.

But bilingual areas like Moncton and Bathurst tend to go Liberal, if only because French speakers have tended to vote more solidly Liberal lately than English speakers do Conservative. So that evens it out a bit.

MQO is out with a poll that for the first time shows the PCs in the lead.  Whether this a trend or a rogue poll we will have to see since if PCs win this would be the third one term government in a row.  Mainstreet research also shows it close by Liberals still slightly ahead but due to how busy they are on the Ontario front they haven't released the full details.  Also this poll shows the federal Tories ahead in New Brunswick too.

Provincial

PC 43%
Liberal 35%
Green 11%
NDP 7%

44% still undecided so obviously a strong potential for the numbers to shift significantly between now and September 24th.

Federal

Conservatives 44%
Liberals 37%
Greens 10%
NDP 7%

Considering how federal and provincial numbers are almost identical I wonder if there is some confusion as this rarely happens, the question is which is causing it.

Interesting federal numbers. The Tories would pick up 5 seats or so, and the NDP would probably win Acadie-Bathurst if they run another Godin.

I'd bet on this being actual PC momentum, considering a couple reasons:

* The Liberals have stepped up their attacks on Blaine Higgs, including a new online ad buy that just started this week (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-higgs-attack-ads-gallant-liberals-1.4668292). They must have polling showing something is up.
* The PCs have recently introduced a slate of quality candidates to run in swing seats; including former MP Greg Thompson and Moira Kelly (the wife of ex-Graham cabinet minster Mike Murphy). Keith Ashfield was even slated to run before his tragic death last month. The Liberals only need to lose a handful of seats to lose power.

At 7%, I doubt the latter.

Yeah you're probably right.

In terms of federal ridings in NB, I think it sort of breaks down like this:

Tobique-Mactaquac, Fundy-Royal, and New Brunswick Southwest: Those are traditionally safe Tory ridings so as long as they don't screw up badly should regain those, although it's possible Liberals might hold them like Andy Savoy did in 2004 if the Liberal incumbent is personally popular.

Miramichi-Grand Lake, Fredericton, and Saint John-Rothesay: Those are probably toss ups as the moment so too early to say which way they will go.

Madawaska-Restigouche: with how badly Tories have done amongst NB Francophones should stay Liberal unless a blue wave sweeps Quebec in which you might get some spillover.

Moncton-Riverview-Diepe: safe liberal, only winneable if there a strong splits on the left.

Beausjour and Acadie-Bahturst: Easy liberal win but NDP could pick up latter if they get the right candidate.

I have a hard time seeing the Tories only winning the three safest seats on a 44-37 split... Especially if the language divide is similar to what it is provincially.

That was more just in general as numbers will likely shift between now and next federal election. If 44-37 is correct it would probably net 6 or 7 seats for the Conservatives.

There's an equivalent poll out for Nova Scotia that has substantially different federal and provincial numbers, so I'd guess it's not confusion.

Dominic Cardy, after denying for months he'd be running as a PC candidate, was kind of forced into running in Fredericton West-Hanwell - the same seat he contested for the NDP 4 years ago. The current MLA Brian Macdonald abruptly quit a few weeks back. Rumour is he'll be trying for the CPC nomination in 2019.

http://country94.ca/news/437706121/dominic-cardy-wants-be-pc-candidate-fredericton-west-hanwell

While I'm at it, here's some other nomination news and notes from the past few weeks that I didn't think merited their own posts, but are probably worth mentioning anyway.

Three former MPs are looking for provincial seats:
* Greg Thompson is the PC candidate in St. Croix. He goes up against Liberal John Ames, who barely won by 2% in 2014. Should be a Tory pickup in September.
* Jean-Claude d'Amours is running for the Liberals in Madawaska-Edmundston Centre. This was the riding of the last Lord-era francophone MLA (Mado Dubé), and with her not running again, this should be the best chance for a Liberal pickup in the province.
* Chretien-era Liberal MP Guy Arsenault has won the nomination in Campbellton-Dalhousie, defeating the current mayors of both Campbellton and Dalhousie. The winner replaces Donald Arseneault (no relation), who was not running again and ended up being kicked out of Liberal caucus over conflict of interest rules for starting his new lobbying job too soon.

Other news in no particular order:
* Another ex-MP, Keith Ashfield, won the Oromocto-Lincoln PC nomination until his sudden passing in April. The party held another nomination meeting just last night, which was won by Fredericton businesswoman Mary Wilson.
* Speaker Chris Collins got Me Too'd and was kicked out of the Liberal caucus. He's suing Gallant for libel and may run as an independent in Moncton Centre.
* Lord-era cabinet minister Jeannot Volpé is getting back into politics, running for the PC nomination in Madawaska-Les-Lacs. He had some choice words for Alward (and Higgs!) during his administration, so it ill be interesting to see if he can keep his mouth shut.
* Moira Kelly Murphy, the wife of Graham cabinet minister Mike Murphy, is running for the PCs in Moncton South - against finance minister Cathy Rogers.
* Saint John Harbour is shaping up to be the most interesting race in the province. NDP leader Jennifer McKenzie, city councillor Gerry Lowe for the Liberals, and well-known community activist Barry Ogden for the PCs.

Not surprised, he endorsed Maxime Bernier for Conservative leader federally and run on a rather right leaning NDP platform in 2014, so seems PCs as opposed to NDP are a better fit for him.

Will the NDP nominate more than 13 candidates?

It reminds me of the classic Sam Cooke song "Summertime (and the NDP is stuck on 13 candidates in New Brunswick.)"  The song is a favorite of a lot of people except for New Brunswick New Democrats but there aren't many of them.

Mainstreet is out with a poll and shows a tight race although due to voter efficiency PCs would probably win if the numbers hold up.  Also seems a strong age gap which bodes well for the PCs.  Off course those numbers could easily change during the campaign.

PC 39.4%
Liberal 38.1%
Green 8.9%
NDP 6.6%
Other 6.9% (I suspect most of that is People's Alliance which wasn't included)

Mainstreet includes the NDP, Conservatives and Greens in their Quebec poll, but doesn't include the People's Alliance in this one ???

Odd. I guess some pollsters can't use Wikipedia.

Is any NB government going to win two terms again at this rate? Graham, Alward and now Gallant all look to get bounced...

It's still close enough Gallant might eke out a win.  I suspect eventually voters will get tired of continuously turfing governments nonetheless as long as the economy is stagnant it might continue to happen.  Perhaps this will encourage some government to be bold and take risks as the status quo obviously is not working so whatever short term backlash, maybe taking a risk on something different is worth it as I've found especially in Atlantic Canada politicians tend to be risk averse so that might change this.

New Brunswick NDP have now nominated 16 candidates.  At the rate they're going they should have candidates in all 49 ridings by the time of the 2022 election.

I suspect if they cannot find enough, the leader will just appoint several.  The danger with this though is little time to vet so if they do by chance get any momentum, real risk they will have several nutty candidates that might scare people away.  By contrast if you have your nominations far enough in advance, you can properly vet candidates and weed out anyone that might cause trouble.

The appointed candidates are usually both paper candidates and parachute candidates.  Often a political party will appoint a semi-vetted party executive just to have the name on the ballot.  The Newfoundland and Labrador NDP did this in a number of ridings in the last election.

I'm sure the goal of the NDP is to have at least 25 candidates on the ballot so that it can claim that it can form a majority government and so, might be in a position where it would have to implement its promises.

Although the NDP did not win any seats in New Brunswick in 2014, this is still certainly a major come down given that I believe they received their highest share of the vote in a New Brunswick provincial election in 2014.

So far the NDP is also only running two really high profile candidates: the party leader and a former head of the New Brunswick Federation of Labour.  I'm not sure what impact this semi collapse of the NDP will have in regards to the opinion polls.

"Nutty candidates" won't be an issue for a party polling in single digits in a province so small. The Libs and PCs aren't going to waste time doing oppo research on them.

Agreed. A lot of people are treating this like the Ontario or BC NDP, when the more relevant comparison is to the Green Party.

In terms of momentum and media coverage the NDP might as well be the 5th party. The People's Alliance has even passed them.

Do you think People's Alliance will win a seat this time?

Indeed; and if the recent released polls actually probed for the PANB, they would find that the NDP was polling in fifth too. Must frustrate you when these Toronto firms swoop in and can't poll the province properly, eh?

It's hit or miss even out east. CRA and MQO are based in Halifax and only the former asks about PA -.- How friggin hard is it to check Wikipedia?!

"10% of voters would vote for a different party?" Huh I wonder why that would be ??? :P

Meanwhile, Mainstreet is probing for the NDP and Conservatives in their Quebec polling.

Kris Austin's probably got a 60-70% chance. If everything goes right a la COR 1991 there may be even some coattails in some of the other rural seats around Fredericton, which could only be good news for the Liberals.

I'm surprised they're even polling, I don't think any of the big national firms did in 2014. Nobody west of NB cares enough to understand the landscape here.


Obviously, they're all Moncton Centre voters for Chris Collins.

Is there any chance of the NBNDP "pulling a Green" and focussing upon the leader's seat instead?  After all, Elizabeth Weir endured for years (and with respect) as the party's sole legislative representative...

I believe the leader is running in Saint John Harbour which is probably the most NDP friendly riding in the province so certainly possible.  Heck maybe even the People's Alliance leader will win his riding although skeptical.

It might be all they have. Though she's up against formidable Liberal and PC candidates.

New Brunswick election has been called off due to lack of interest on Dave Leip's Atlas Forum.  :|  (Just kidding, about it being called off, that is.)

Might be more appropriate for the Alberta election, you know as the campaign starts not long after April 1st. Still got a little over 7 months until that day

Well, where is the 24/7 coverage of the New Brunswick election that I desire then?

Unfortunately not a lot of media coverage, but once party announcements perhaps.  Also very little polling either although I suspect on September 23rd you will have a few polls in the field to try and claim bragging rights.

Actually, this thread's been surprisingly *active" for a pre-election thread for a place as supposedly mundane as New Brunswick.

Grenier's projector has the People's Alliance at 7% :P

Hey, we're used to being ignored by the rest of the country.

Doesn't help that the Quebec and Toronto municipal races are going on at the same time. If NB wanted any national attention at all for their elections, they couldn't pick a worse time.


Doesn't surprise me. Most of their candidates here in the Fredericton area have very active campaigns already.

Mayor of Caraquet running for the PCs. Still not sure how well they'll do among Acadians, but they're sure trying.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-progessive-conservative-acadian-support-1.4792502

EDIT: on the other hand, Radio-Canada says they will not be able to do a debate in French because Blaine Higgs still isn't comfortable speaking it: https://twitter.com/roycomeau/status/1031522874958536704

Writ drops today.

CRA: 50-30-7-7-6.
https://cra.ca/liberals-enjoy-sizeable-lead-at-the-start-of-nb-election/

For whatever reason, CRA always seems to overstate Liberal support compared to other pollsters.

If you look at all the pollsters, the Liberals have been trending upwards throughout the campaign, so I guess it's possible.

Radio-Canada debate cancelled due to Higgs' unilingualism and Gallant's refusal to debate a surrogate. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/ici-acadie-leaders-debate-french-1.4796135)

Ok what is this "people's alliance"? That's the vaguest name I've ever seen

Vaguer than Confederation of Regions? :P

Oddly enough, the same kind of party minus the *overt* anti-Frenchness.

L’ALLIANCE DES GENS

How about the Quantum of Solace Party?

Over the next few days I’m going to do some profiles of each of the 49 ridings. Let’s begin, shall we?

Saint John / Fundy Coast

St. Croix
Formerly known as Charlotte-Campobello and Western Charlotte, this riding in the far southwest corner of the province contains the border town of St. Stephen, the resort town of St. Andrews and the village of McAdam. It’s voted with the government every time since it was created in its current form in 1995, with the exception of 2006 when PC Tony Huntjens barely held on.

The current MLA is tourism minister John Ames, who won a close race by less than 2% in 2014. He’s in big trouble this time, as the Tories have recruited longtime federal MP Greg Thompson, who has been uber-popular in that part of the province for years. My guess? If there’s only one PC pickup in the entire province, this will be it. A strong People’s Alliance campaign may be a spoiler, but not likely.
Likely PC

Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
This sprawling riding follows the Fundy coastline from St. Andrews to Saint John. It includes the towns of St. George and Blacks Harbour, Grand Manan and Deer Island, as well as exurban Saint John neighbourhoods like Lorneville and Martinon. The economy, as you might expect, is heavily based on fisheries and aquaculture. Connors Brothers, one of the largest sardine processors in the world, is based in Blacks Harbour. The Point Lepreau nuclear plant is also located in the riding. Voting patterns are similar to equivalent fishing areas in NS, PEI or NL, which means it tends to vote Liberal more often than the rest of rural English New Brunswick – in fact, factoring in boundary changes, the St. George area has been represented continuously by a Liberal since 1978.

Liberal MLA and energy minister Rick Doucet has been in the legislature since 1999, and won in a landslide over the late “maverick” PC MLA Doc Parrott in 2014, in a battle of incumbents forced by riding boundary changes. Doucet’s PC challenger this time is Andrea Anderson-Mason, who’s been regarded as a strong campaigner, but I can’t see her overcoming Doucet’s personal popularity.
Likely Liberal

Saint John-Lancaster
The very working class west side of Saint John, formerly known as Lancaster back in the day, is mostly found within this riding. It includes employers like the Irving pulp mill and Moosehead Breweries. In keeping with the neighbourhood’s culture, most of its MLAs over the years have been known for their strong personalities – McKenna-era cabinet minister Jane Barry, PC Norm McFarlane (who later became mayor), Liberal Abel LeBlanc (best known for challenging a Tory opponent to a fight on the floor of the legislature).

The MLA since 2010 has been PC Dorothy Shephard, who isn’t letting a little thing like breast cancer keep her from running again.  She’s up against B&B owner Kathleen Riley-Karmanos for the Liberals and perennial local NDP candidate Tony Mowery.
Leaning PC

Saint John Harbour
Running in this riding seemed like a good idea at the time for new NDP leader Jennifer McKenzie. Saint John Harbour is the riding covering the city centre, which is hipster-fying at a huge rate, not to mention two of the province’s poorest neighbourhoods in the north and south ends. It was the personal fiefdom of former NDP leader Elizabeth Weir for 14 years. The Liberal incumbent Ed Doherty isn’t even running again. In any other province this would be a slam dunk for the NDP.

But the NDP in this province still hasn’t recovered from the loss of the traditional left-wing voters caused by Dominic Cardy’s shift to the centre, and the subsequent loss of said centre voters caused by Cardy’s forcing out last year.  The Liberals and Tories have both nominated star candidates – city councillor Gerry Lowe and community activist Barry Ogden respectively. Polls have shown the NDP without any sort of boost in Saint John compared to the rest of the province. It’s become an uphill battle for McKenzie, and with basically zero prospects elsewhere, this is it for the orange team. David Coon won Fredericton South for the Greens under similar circumstances 4 years ago, maybe history will repeat itself? I have my doubts.
Liberal-PC-NDP tossup

Portland-Simonds
This is mostly the old money part of Saint John, consisting of the areas around Rockwood Park and Milledgeville, as well as smaller, poorer, immigrant-heavy sections of the North End (formerly called Portland in the 19th century) and East Side (Simonds) that trended Liberal 4 years ago but got outvoted. PC MLA Trevor Holder has been in the legislature since 1999, including a 15-point victory in 2014. I can’t see him losing in this political climate, even with city councillor John MacKenzie carrying the Liberal banner.
Likely PC

Saint John East
This middle-to-lower class suburban riding covers most of the city’s east side (as the name suggests), including the Irving Oil refinery. 4 years ago, Liberal Gary Keating survived a protracted recount battle and won by 9 votes, only to quit after 2 weeks because he couldn’t handle the workload. His PC opponent Glen Savoie easily won the by-election and is re-offering this year.  The Liberal campaign looks fairly weak this time.
Likely PC

Rothesay
By far the richest town in the province, Rothesay is home to the Irving family and the province’s only private boarding school. It’s that kind of place. The PC MLA is Ted Flemming, grandson of 1950s premier Hugh John Flemming, and he will undoubtedly have a senior cabinet position should the Tories win the election. He’s in a rematch against Rothesay High School principal Stephanie Tomilson for the Liberals, who he defeated by 18 points in 2014.
Safe PC

Quispamsis
Quispamsis is Rothesay’s more middle-class neighbour. It’s also Blaine Higgs’ seat. Enough said. His Liberal opponent is Saint John Sea Dogs play-by-play voice Aaron Kennedy.
Safe PC

Hampton
The Hampton riding includes both the town of the same name and some exurban Saint John suburbs reaching all the way down to the coast around Loch Lomond and Red Head. 4 years ago, longtime PC MLA Bev Harrison crossed the floor to run for the NDP, only to lose to new PC candidate Gary Crossman. Crossman's main opponent this year is Liberal Carley Parish, a young lawyer. The NDP candidate this time is Layton – Layton Peck that is, coach of the Hampton High School football team. Green candidate John Sabine had a decent showing 4 years ago and is running again this time.
Likely PC

Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
This riding is based around the town of Sussex, the dairy capital of Atlantic Canada. It also includes an area around the village of St. Martins on the shore, where tourism is the main draw (seriously, if you’re ever in NB, go to the caves – they’re breathtaking). PC Bruce Northrup, who served several cabinet positions in the Alward government, has represented the riding since 2006. The Liberal candidate is (who else) a cheese maker named Ian Smyth.

The People’s Alliance had a strong 3rd-place showing with former Liberal MLA Leroy Armstrong in 2014. He’s not running this time, but they could still play spoiler. Also running as an independent: David Raymond Amos, the province’s own resident conspiracy theorist who’s always good for comic relief at debates.
Likely PC

Kings Centre
Kings Centre is a weirdly drawn riding – in order to drive it from end to end, you need to take a ferry. It includes the Saint John suburb of Grand Bay-Westfield on one side, the farming village of Norton on the other and the scenic Kingston Peninsula in the middle.

The incumbent MLA is Bill Oliver, a former staffer to Blaine Higgs who is seeking his second term in the legislature for the PCs. (Fun fact: as of this writing, his Wikipedia article includes the following: “this year, the year of 2018, Oliver turned 6 years old. It was a very fun birthday with balloon animals, a bounce house, and a magic show. He was a very happy boy that day. Yes he was.”) The Liberal candidate is Bill Merrifield, active in the Saint John recreation community and whose daughter Shannon was the Liberal candidate in 2014. It’s Oliver’s race to lose given the demographics of this riding, but this is the kind of rural anglo Bible Belt seat without a strong incumbent where a good People’s Alliance campaign may upset the apple cart.
Likely PC

Excellent profiles. I learned a lot. Looking forward to the rest of them.

How bout some more:

Moncton / Southeast New Brunswick

Albert
This mostly rural riding includes most of Albert County, parts of the Moncton suburb of Riverview and the village of Salisbury. Tourism and fisheries are among the big economic draws, with Fundy National Park and the Hopewell Rocks in the riding. It is very small-c conservative, even voting for COR in 1991. The only times the Liberals won Albert since 1948 were the sweep of 1987 and the near-sweep of 1995. From 1999 to 2014, Albert was represented by the popular Wayne Steeves.

After Steeves decided not to run again 4 years ago, Brian Kierstead became the MLA for the riding, however Kierstead inexplicably lost his nomination meeting in April. Carrying the Tory banner this time will be Mike Holland, who owns an outdoor gear business called The Resourceful Redneck and once got a deal on Dragon’s Den.

Running against Holland is Liberal Catherine Black (director of the local NB Community College campus), farmer Miranda van Geest for the Greens, school bus driver Betty Weir for the NDP and Sharon Buchanan for the People’s Alliance.
Safe PC

Riverview
This riding includes most of the town of Riverview, a middle-class suburban community across the river from downtown Moncton. It’s the most anglophone part of the area, going so far as to vote COR in 1991. Like Albert, besides the Tories’ 1987-95 years in the wilderness, the riding has voted for them in every other election since it was created in 1974. At one point it was represented by Brenda Robertson, the first female MLA in New Brunswick.

Bruce Fitch has been the MLA since 2003, and he doesn’t seem to be in much trouble this time either. His biggest opponent is Brent Mazerolle, a former newspaper reporter running for the Liberals. Also running is perennial Green candidate Stephanie Coburn, Madison Duffy for the NDP and Heather Collins for the People’s Alliance.
Safe PC

Moncton Southwest
Can I just say Moncton riding names are completely screwed up? The bulk of the population in Moncton Southwest actually lives due north of Moncton South, which should really be called Moncton Centre because it includes downtown, while the actual Moncton Centre includes the old north end….and on and on and on.

Anyway, Moncton “Southwest” includes some baby-boom-era suburbia along the Mountain Road corridor to the north of downtown, as well as a rural/exurban area to the west around Boundary Creek and Berry Mills. The riding as we know it was created in 2014, from portions of the old Moncton North (a fairly bilingual swing seat that has tilted slightly Liberal over the years), and two very Conservative rural ridings.

The MLA is PC Sherry Wilson, who formerly represented Petitcodiac. She held on by 4% in 2014 by racking up big margins in the rural parts of the riding while the urban parts voted Liberal. She’s being challenged this time by Liberal Suzy Campos, a well-known community activist. The strongest third-party campaign looks to be the Greens’ Sarah Colwell. Add in the NDP’s Hailey Duffy and all 4 confirmed candidates so far are women.
PC-Liberal tossup

Moncton South
This riding includes downtown Moncton and most of the inner city, as well as a more suburban neighbourhood to the west around Jones Lake and Centennial Park. It’s voted for both major parties over the years. 4 years ago, now-finance minister Cathy Rogers beat Alward cabinet minister Sue Stultz by a good margin.

This time around, it should again be one of the most closely watched ridings in the province on election night. Rogers is going up against Tory candidate Moira Kelly Murphy, a well-known lawyer in the area who the PCs regard as a star candidate – and oh, she just happens to be the wife of Graham-era Liberal cabinet minister Mike Murphy. I think whoever wins the province wins here. The NDP, Green and People’s Alliance candidates are all women too.
PC-Liberal tossup

Moncton Centre
Here’s another race that will be very closely watched. The riding includes most of Moncton’s old north end, the suburban neighbourhood of Sunny Brae and the Elmwood Drive corridor. Not exactly “centre”, but I digress.

The story of this riding centres on MLA Chris Collins. As a Liberal candidate, he almost knocked off premier Bernard Lord when he first ran in 2003, won the by-election after Lord left the legislature, and later became speaker. (He’s also often mistaken for the congressman on Twitter, but that’s a story for another day.) Then at the height of the Me Too movement, the Liberals kicked him out of caucus over unspecified harassment allegations. An investigation ruled them to be founded “in part”, but the details have never been made public. He’s running as an independent to try to clear his name.

How well is he doing? My sources in Moncton say he’s winning the sign war, but that might not count for anything. His supporters contend Brian Gallant forced him out in favour of his own pick, councillor Rob McKee. The Tory candidate is Claudette Boudreau-Turner, who runs several successful local businesses, and she could very well win on the vote split. It will be a tough 3-way race. But if his electoral history is any indication, you should never count out Chris Collins.
Liberal-PC-indy tossup

Moncton Northwest
This suburban and exurban riding is found, oddly enough, in the northwest corner of the city. It is mostly anglophone and includes the tourist traps around Magnetic Hill, as well as a small rural component to the northwest.

4 years ago, Tory candidate and former local radio personality Brian Steeves won a tight battle by 3% over councillor Brian Hicks. This year, his Liberal opponent is Courtney Pringle-Carver, a VP for Atlantic Lottery. The People’s Alliance candidate is Myrna Geldart, who once ran for…the NDP?

I’d tend to give this one to Steeves just based on the demographics of the riding, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t hold on.
Leaning PC

Moncton East
This bilingual riding consists of the neighbourhoods of Lewisville and Harrisville, as well as exurban communities like Irishtown and Lakeville. It was Bernard Lord’s riding when he was premier, but outside of that era has mostly voted Liberal.

Liberal Monique LeBlanc is seeking her second term in the legislature. She’s up against Marty Kingston for the Tories, the Moncton Wildcats play-by-play announcer. It’s another close race on paper that will probably go the same way it always does.
Leaning Liberal

Dieppe
The city of Dieppe is the most Acadian and francophone section of greater Moncton. The Dieppe riding includes most of the older parts of town.

Liberal Roger Melanson was first elected in 2010, was re-elected in a landslide in 2014 and has served several senior cabinet positions under Gallant. His PC opponent is Pierre Brine, a real estate agent. The NDP is running lawyer and former daycare owner Joyce Richardson, and the Greens still don’t have a candidate.
Safe Liberal

Shediac Bay-Dieppe
The riding of Shediac Bay-Dieppe has two components: the part fishing village, part exurban areas to the immediate north and west of Shediac, and the newer suburban neighbourhoods on the east side of Dieppe. Hence the name.

The Liberal candidate is Brian Gallant. That’s all you need to know.
Safe Liberal

Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap Pelé
The town of Shediac is known as the lobster capital of the world. Most of its residents are Acadian but are known to speak in a French-English mix called Chiac. The riding continues east from Shediac along the coast to the municipalities of Beaubassin-Est and Cap-Pelé. It has voted solidly Liberal ever since it was created in 1974.

The outgoing MLA, Victor Boudreau, has held senior cabinet positions in both the Graham and Gallant governments; most recently as health minister. He has come under fire in recent years for a major conflict of interest: a new campground in which he had a financial stake may have contributed to water quality problems at the popular Parlee Beach – and the fact that his department was responsible for conducting the water tests may have led to a cover up of the worst results.

With all that in the background, Boudreau decided not to run this year.  Now carrying the Liberal banner is Shediac mayor Jacques LeBlanc, who should easily hold it.
Safe Liberal

Memramcook-Tantramar
In the southeast corner of the province lies this riding, which comes across one of those seats that’s left over after all the others in the area are drawn. The town of Sackville (home of Mount Allison University), and the anglo rural area to the east, is lumped in with the very Acadian town of Memramcook, home to the federal LeBlanc family dynasty of Romeo and Dominic.

The Green party is targeting this riding as a possible second seat, and if it was still just the Sackville area I might have given them a chance. Memramcook was split away from Dieppe and added to this riding in 2014, which caused Liberal incumbent Bernard LeBlanc (no relation) to run against Tantramar PC incumbent Mike Olscamp. A look at the poll map reveals some sharp divides: Green around the Mount A campus, a narrow PC win over the Liberals in the rest of Sackville and the Port Elgin area, while Memramcook voted 70+% Liberal. It added up to a fairly comfortable win for LeBlanc.

LeBlanc is running again for his 4th term in the legislature, this time against retired military policeman Etienne Gaudet for the PCs. Green candidate Meghan Mitton and NDPer Helene Boudreau are both returning from 2014. Having a francophone PC candidate may eat into the margin in Memramcook this time, but I still expect another geographically polarized result.
PC-Liberal tossup

Kent South
Kent County, which is mostly francophone, is divided fairly neatly into two ridings. Kent South is centered on the towns of Bouctouche and Saint-Antoine.

4 years ago, Liberal Benoit Bourque knocked off Lord-era PC MLA Claude Williams. He became health minister last year. The fact PC candidate Ricky Gautreau doesn’t even have a bio on the party website probably explains their chances of taking this riding back.
Safe Liberal

Kent North
Kent North includes the Acadian towns of Richibucto, St-Louis-de-Kent and Rogersville, an Anglophone enclave around Rexton, the province’s largest first nation at Elsipogtog, and Kouchibouguac National Park.

Politically it’s been the fiefdom of the Graham family. Alan Graham served continuously from 1967 to 1999 and served several senior cabinet positions under Frank McKenna. Shawn Graham took over from there and of course was premier from 2006-10. He left politics shortly after his government was defeated. Bertrand LeBlanc, who was first elected for Rogersville-Kouchibouguac in 2010 and moved to Kent North in 2014 when that riding was eliminated, is not running again. His assistant, Emery Comeau, is carrying the Liberal banner this time.

4 years ago this area was the height of the fracking controversy that dominated the election campaign. The Green candidate actually finished 2nd, and when I was up there over Labour Day weekend their candidate Kevin Arseneau easily had the 2nd most signs again this time. (He was pictured wearing a Country Liberty hoodie, a clothing label based in Rexton – nice touch.) But this riding is still the Liberals’ to lose.
Safe Liberal

Today was the last day of nominations. The PCs, Liberals and NDP are all running full slates; the Greens in all but two seats (missing Dieppe and Shippagan). The People's Alliance are running 30 candidates, mostly in Anglo ridings. There is also a party called "KISS" running 9 candidates.

So, I was wrong. The NDP did manage to pull together a full slate.

Fredericton & the River Valley

Gagetown-Petitcodiac
When I was at one of the hearings of the electoral boundary commission, one presenter called this riding “the bit that was left over after they drew everything else”. It makes no geographical sense – the Gagetown area, which is economically and culturally tied to Fredericton; the Petitcodiac area is similarly tied to Moncton; with not much but a desolate stretch of the Trans-Canada Highway connecting the two.

Luckily, the economies are similar (a lot of mixed farming and some forestry), and the political culture is similar too. Both sides are very anglo and very Conservative. Ross Wetmore is seeking his 3rd term in the legislature. Brigitte Noel, who works in the Fredericton arts community, is carrying the Liberal banner, and farmer Craig Dykeman is running for the People’s Alliance.
Safe PC

Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton
This riding is based partly around the town of Oromocto, home of Canada’s largest military base. It also includes the Fredericton suburban neighbourhood of Southwood Park and exurb of Lincoln.

Jody Carr, one of the 3 Carr brothers that have dominated PC politics in the Oromocto area over the last 20 years, isn’t running this time. They had nominated former CPC MP and Lord-era cabinet minister Keith Ashfield as his replacement, but he suddenly passed away in April.

The new Tory candidate is Mary Wilson, who worked as a representative for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business for several years. Retired Colonel John Fife is carrying the Liberal banner, while Craig Rector, son of former COR MLA Ab Rector, is running for the People’s Alliance.
Likely PC

New Maryland-Sunbury
One of several “rurban” ridings in the Fredericton area, New Maryland-Sunbury stretches from the city limits almost to Saint John. Most of the population is in Fredericton/Oromocto suburbs and exurbs like New Maryland, Rusagonis and Geary; it also includes portions of Sunbury and Queens counties south and west of the CFB Gagetown boundary.

It is also part of the Carr fiefdom – after Keith Ashfield left to run federally, Jack Carr (Jody’s twin brother!) succeeded him; after he left in 2014, his older brother Jeff won the seat.  In this election, Jeff Carr’s chief opponent is Liberal Alex Scholten, who runs a chain of convenience stores in the Fredericton area. (Fun fact: during the Alward government, Scholten made a lot of noise in the media about Costco and gas taxes, liquor licenses, etc. After Gallant won, he got quiet about it all of a sudden. Weird, eh?)
Likely PC

Fredericton South
Your humble scribe’s home riding, Fredericton South includes the downtown area, the UNB and St. Thomas campuses, and an inner city area known simply as “the hill”.  As you might expect, it’s more left-leaning than the surrounding areas; for instance, it was the only riding in greater Fredericton to not vote COR in 1991. In 2014, Green leader David Coon won a 4-way battle royale against sitting PC cabinet minister Craig Leonard, ex-Liberal cabinet minister turned NDPer Kelly Lamrock, and a random Liberal candidate Roy Wiggins. Since being elected, Coon has followed the Elizabeth May playbook to the letter, showing up at an exhaustive number of committee meetings, town halls, etc.

The race this time isn’t as heated, but Liberal Susan Holt (former CEO of the local chamber of commerce) has a strong campaign, with PC Scott Smith not far behind. Lawyer Chris Durrant is running for the NDP and seems to have the only real active campaign for that party in the city. The sign war, for what it’s worth, is decidedly in Coon’s favour, and I see no reason to disagree.
Likely Green

Fredericton North
Another of this year’s most closely watched ridings, Fredericton North is made up of most of the middle-class neighbourhood of Nashwaaksis; the more working-class Devon; and the St. Mary’s First Nation. With the exception of the COR surge in 1991 and the close 2003 election, it has voted with the government the rest of the time since single-member ridings were established in 1974.

Deputy premier Stephen Horsman is the only sitting Liberal MLA in the Fredericton area, but came under fire earlier this year for not knowing details about child abuse cases, which fell under another department for which he was responsible. He’s up against Tory Jill Green, the CEO of an IT firm. NDPer Scarlett Tays is the first transgender candidate ever in the province. The sign war is close between Horsman and Green, and the Greens and People’s Alliance both also have strong campaigns that may play spoiler either way. My feeling? As usual, whoever wins the province should win here.
PC-Liberal tossup

Fredericton-Grand Lake
Another “rurban” riding made up of the working-class Fredericton neighbourhoods of Marysville and Barkers Point, some suburban subdivisions along highway 10, the former coal mining town of Minto and the forestry service centre of Chipman.

4 years ago, the top 3 candidates were separated by 73 votes. Tory Pam Lynch narrowly beat People’s Alliance leader Kris Austin, setting up a rematch this year. The poll-by-poll results tell the tale: Austin ran up landslide margins in his hometown of Minto, while getting creamed in the Fredericton parts of the riding where both the PC and Liberal candidates lived. He has to make up ground in the capital city, and Austin’s deciding to hold the party’s campaign launch in Marysville was a sign he knows that. I’ve seen a lot more Austin signs now in the city than I did then, but signs don’t vote.

I wouldn’t completely count out Liberal candidate Wendy Tremblay either, who runs an IT firm in Minto and may eat into Austin’s margin there. If the right-wing vote splits just right, she could squeak through. But in my opinion, Austin has raised his profile just enough to turn this riding purple for the first time.
Leaning PANB

Fredericton-York
This is a rural and exurban riding consisting of the Nashwaak river valley, the Douglas area to the west of Fredericton, and some growing suburban developments within city limits.

Kirk MacDonald has represented most of the area in the legislature for the PCs since 1999. With boundary changes taking away some rural and adding some suburban areas, he scraped by 4 years ago thanks to the Liberals splitting the vote with a surprisingly strong NDP candidate.

His Liberal opponent this time is school principal Amber Bishop. The People’s Alliance is also throwing some heavy muscle into this riding with their candidate Rick DeSaulniers, but this is still MacDonald’s race to lose.
Likely PC

Fredericton West-Hanwell
Home to New Brunswick’s most opportunistic election candidate! Fredericton West-Hanwell stretches from the city’s inner suburbs around Odell Park, through Hanwell and Kingsclear, to the rural cottage areas around Prince William and Yoho Lake. Former NDP leader Dominic Cardy called it a microcosm of the province, which is why he picked this riding to run in 2014. The riding’s demographics were a bad fit for the NDP (lots of old money in the city and camo wearers outside), but he didn’t care. He didn’t win either. Cardy, of course, joined the PCs after he was ousted by the NDP last year.

Who did win was Brian Macdonald, a PC party lifer who was re-elected to his second term.  After winning the nomination this time, he suddenly quit. (Rumour mill says he could go for the CPC nod next year.) So who stepped in to fill the PC void? Dominic Cardy, of course! Given the demographics and the competition (the Liberal candidate is Cindy Miles, wife of former MLA Rick), Cardy should finally get into the legislature - after his 4th try, in his 3rd riding, for his 2nd party.
Likely PC

Carleton-York
This large riding covers virtually the entire rural area between Fredericton and Woodstock, on both sides of the Saint John River. Towns and villages in the riding include Nackawic, Millville, Canterbury, Meductic and Harvey Station. Forestry and energy are the major economic drivers in the riding, including the Mactaquac hydro dam and a large pulp mill in Nackawic. There’s also a small amount of farming. Sabian Cymbals, which should be a familiar name to any rock drummer, is based in Meductic.

Carl Urquhart has been an MLA for the Tories since 2006, and should be easily re-elected. This area has long been one of the heartlands of right-wing populism in the province, and my moles have told me People’s Alliance candidate Gary Lemmon could very well place second.
Safe PC

Carleton
The heart of Carleton County is in this riding, including the towns of Woodstock and Hartland.  This is the southern end of potato country (see below). Several trucking companies are based in the area too, as it is located at the junction of the Trans-Canada Highway and Interstate 95.

Former premier David Alward represented Woodstock in the legislature from 1999 until shortly after his party’s defeat in 2014. PC exec Stewart Fairgrieve comfortably won the by-election, and should comfortably win again this time.

Carleton is also home to the first bozo eruption so far in the campaign, with PANB candidate Stewart Manuel comparing Liberals to Nazis on a Facebook post. Kris Austin has, in his infinite wisdom, decided to keep him on. 
Safe PC

Carleton-Victoria
The northern section of Carleton County and southern section of Victoria County make up this riding, Potato farming is the big industry, with McCain Foods world headquarters located in Florenceville. Forestry is also a big industry and there are several small hydro dams in the riding. Other towns include Bristol, Bath, Centreville, Perth-Andover and Plaster Rock; as well as the Tobique First Nation.

It’s not as Conservative as most of the rest of anglo rural New Brunswick, with Perth-Andover often voting Liberal (thanks to a string of popular local MLAs from the area), and educated left-wingers settling in Florenceville to work for McCain.

In 2014, the Liberal candidate Andrew Harvey survived fraud charges during the campaign to win by 83 votes. The charges were admittedly minor – passing off wood cut from Crown land as being from a private woodlot, and they were dropped with no explanation 10 days before the election. Harvey was named agriculture minister in 2017. Margaret Johnson, a supply teacher by trade, is his Tory opponent. By name recognition alone, Harvey should hold on, but I’m not sure you can count out any rural anglo PC candidate in this political climate.
PC-Liberal tossup

CRA: 45-33-10-6-5.

https://cra.ca/liberals-lead-narrows-midway-through-2018-nb-election-campaign/

I always have a hard time telling the difference between Grits and Tories in Atlantic provincial elections. On some issues the Tories seem to run to the left of the Frits, and there was that NDP guy who defected to the PCs.

There is quite a bit of a difference between the two, this time.

Watching this debate and realizing how bad of a speaker Jennifer McKenzie is...

that's not the impression I got, but I didn't hear the beginning.

In the debate Higgs accused Gallant of offering him either minister or deputy minister of finance after the 2014 election, which Gallant denied. Higgs signed an affidavit and said he has texts. Unsure what kinda impact this has.

Felt like Higgs was going for a knockout blow but it didn't come off that way.

Other than that and McKenzie not knowing when to shut up, not much happened. Don't see too many minds changing.

Interesting that he brought it up live in a debate instead of having a press conference.

She just didn't seem well prepared and they kept having to cut her off.

How did PA and Green leaders do?

David Coon was a very eloquent speaker and did well. Kris Austin just seemed out of place among the hard hitters like Gallant and Higgs.

Leger  (https://twitter.com/JeanMarcLeger1/status/1040554361649356801)has 41L/32C/10PA/8GN. Full writeup is paywalled in a local paper.

You missed the NDP which is also at 8%.

And that's the real story of this poll. There's no way the NDP is tied with the Greens.

Forum (http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/6279a1df-1d32-40fd-bf14-5ff7d8360452NB%20Issues%20Poll%20September%2013%202018.pdf) has the Liberals up 37-32-15-11-4

People's Alliance seems to be gaining some momentum.  If Forum or Leger or correct this could be a case where split on the right lets the Liberals win.  If you are Maxime Bernier you probably are liking this while for Andrew Scheer quite worried.

Interesting how this could shape up to be the 2nd NB election in a row that previews what happens federally the next year. In 2014 Liberals were very up front about using Gallant as a proxy for what works/doesn't with Trudeau.

This time around...a surging PANB only helps the Liberals on the vote split.

Looking like a minority could be a possibility. A 4-5 point Liberal lead could put them close to the PCs in seat count (the PCs have a seat advantage it seems, with the Liberal vote so concentrated in Franco ridings), and the Greens+PANB will likely win at least 2 seats put together.

I really hope the 506 finishes his riding analysis. It would help me analyze our internal polls better ;)

I won't divulge much except to say it looks like there are a few ridings the Greens and PA have a shot outside of the seats they are expected to win in the Fredericton area.

My guess is in a minority parliament, Greens and NDP (if they win a seat) would back the Liberals whereas People's Alliance would back the PC's so if Liberals + NDP + Greens is over 24, Gallant remains premier, if PCs + PANB is over 24 seats, then Blaine Higgs becomes premier and PC's form government.

Probably tomorrow!

Spoiler: PA's got a chance on the Miramichi. North shore is all Liberal with some where the PCs have a shot.

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

Booo

That probably will help both PCs and Liberals in terms of numbers but not seats.  A weaker NDP should benefit the Liberals while weaker PANB should benefit the PCs.

The NDP is at rock bottom, there is no more room to hemorrhage to.

What about the PANB, could they fall further.  I would tend to think that would benefit the PCs although being a populist party as opposed to establishment things don't always follow the left/right spectrum, you do get some crossover.  Your thoughts?

Not sure if it will help or hurt anyone. Coon wasn't in the CTV debate in 2014 and he did fine.

What about the Greens?

The insinuation was that they will be; they have a seat after all.

Parties are legitimized by whether or not they're in a debate, so it's possible there will be an effect, but I think it could be minimal, as they were all included in the last one. I think Austin is a lock to win his seat, but it's possible his exclusion from the debate may hurt the party's chances at winning a second seat (like Miramichi SW).

Will Ekos publicly post anything for New Brunswick and will like federally and Ontario, we get a seat projection?

All depends on the client (probably not), but I can do a projection for everyone here on election day, though. I won't put anything on the EKOS website because it would be weird if we did New Brunswick and not Quebec (we're not doing any polling in Quebec this time).

There's a political compass for New Brunswick too:

I got:
Liberal 68%
Green 67%
NDP 61%
PANB 59%
PC 59%

And they put me as centre-right socially? lol These quizzes are dumb.

On the political compass I got:

NDP 84%
Green 79%
Liberal 62%
PA 51%
PC 50%

I don't know how I'm over 50 for the People's Alliance, or at 50 for the PCs.

Link?

Mine are:


PC 75%
PA 62%
LIB 55%
GRN 40%
NDP 35%


Not a real surprise, I was a member of the Progressive Conservatives prior to the merger so in Atlantic Canada they are still kind of like the PCs pre-merger so makes sense I would align with them.  In Alberta pre-merger I was also closest to the PCs as opposed to Wildrose.  I would probably vote PC if I lived in New Brunswick as Blaine Higgs seems to be trying something different and Gallant's policies are similar to Wynne and Trudeau which is a just bigger government which I don't believe is the solution.  Also Higgs is not an ideologue like Ford or Kenney, but moderately centre-right.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/vote-compass-used-in-nb-1.4789522

PC - 64%
PA - 60%
Liberal - 56%
Green - 48%
NDP - 43%

Actually surprised that the People's Alliance is that high for me lol

PC 72%
LIB 67%
PANB 52%
GRN 49%
NDP 38%

NDP 87
GRN 82
LIB 62
PA 61(!)
PC 52

And now, the moment you've all been waiting for, the final installment of the riding profiles.

Northern New Brunswick

Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin
In the US, this riding could be considered a gerrymander. The very anglo, very rural Southwest Miramichi valley, including villages like Boiestown, Doaktown and Blackville; is lumped in with the very Acadian area around Bay du Vin and Baie-Sainte-Anne on the eastern coast. Southwest Miramichi was a COR seat back in the day, and the current PC MLA Jake Stewart is very much in that mold.

Stewart is running for his 3rd term in the legislature. The Liberal candidate is former CUPE local president Andy Hardy, who’s had his fair share of conflicts with the Gallant government over the past 4 years. This was also one of the People’s Alliance’s best seats in both 2010 and 2014, and they’re running Doaktown councllor Art O’Donnell. Given the demographics of this riding, he may have a chance.
Likely PC

Miramichi
This riding includes the bulk of the City of Miramichi, one of those amalgamated supercities that were all the rage in Canada in the 90s. The two main population centres inside city limits, Newcastle and Chatham, are about 10 km apart on opposite sides of the Miramichi River. It wasn’t until 2014 that they were joined in the same riding. Chatham (“Canada’s Irish Capital”) is historically Catholic and Liberal, and was Frank McKenna’s seat back in the day. Newcastle was historically more Conservative and Protestant, but more recently elected a string of Liberal MLAs in the 1990s and 2000s.

The current MLA is transportation minister Bill Fraser, who defeated Alward cabinet minister Robert Trevors in a Newcastle vs Chatham battle 4 years ago. Fraser has ties to the now-defunct Liberal-friendly construction firm Atcon, who received millions of dollars in government subsidies in the Graham years before quickly folding. As transportation minister, he’s still given contracts to ex-Atcon employees’ new firms, which has dogged him during the campaign.

The PC candidate is former city councillor Peggy McLean. The People’s Alliance is running Michelle Conroy, a hospital administrative assistant.

Fraser’s scandals could sink him, but the PA looks surprisingly strong and may split the vote. My guess is whoever wins the province will win here.
PC-Liberal tossup

Miramichi Bay-Neguac
Another essentially bilingual (if not trilingual) riding, Miramichi Bay-Neguac includes the pre-amalgamation village of Douglastown, the other anglo rural areas to the north and west of Miramichi; as well as the Neguac area which is culturally part of the Acadian peninsula but still in Miramichi’s Northumberland County. It also includes three large Mi’kmaq nations at Red Bank, Eel Ground and Burnt Church.

Liberal MLA Lisa Harris is seeking her 2nd term, having won her first by knocking off incumbent Tory Serge Robichaud by 11 points. She’s now the minister responsible for seniors’ issues, in an area with a lot of retirees, and one of her big promises is renos to local seniors’ homes. The PC candidate time is Debi Tozer, an executive of a construction firm. I’d give the People’s Alliance candidate Terry Collette a slight chance - if he didn’t have a degree on “holistic nutrition” and post 9/11 conspiracy theories on Facebook.

It should be a closer race than last time, but my guess is the Acadian and First Nations vote will keep Harris in the legislature.
Leaning Liberal

Tracadie-Sheila
This riding is at the southern end of the Acadian Peninsula and is based around, of course, the town of Tracadie.

It’s currently represented by Attorney General Serge Rousselle, a former Université de Moncton dean of law who trounced PC incumbent Claude Landry in a landslide in 2014. But after just one term, Rousselle bowed out of politics in order to seek “a more balanced life”.

Rousselle’s executive assistant Keith Chiasson is taking up the Liberal mantle this time, while Landry is back to carry the PC banner. The math favours the Liberals on the north shore, but it’s not a lock.
Likely Liberal

Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou
Located at the far northeast corner of the province, this riding includes the town of Shippagan, Lameque and Miscou Islands (including the town of Lamèque), and a string of smaller fishing villages.

It may be the most Conservative francophone riding in the province, with the possible exception of the Edmundston area. It started with the late Jean Gauvin, a former Hatfield cabinet minister once known as “vroom vroom” for his, um, flashy official car choices all on the taxpayer’s dime. His constituents still loved him, and he was one of only 3 PCs to win in 1991. It continued with Paul Robichaud, who served from 1999 to 2014 (and served as Alward’s deputy premier) before he lost by only 44 votes to Liberal Wilfrid Roussel.

This year, Roussel is matched up with Jean Gauvin’s son Robert, who’s spent the last 17 years as an actor and comedian, including bit roles on shows like Smallville. With Jeannot Volpé’s penchant for sticking his foot in his mouth (see below), this may be the Tories’ best chance at a Francophone seat.
PC-Liberal tossup

Caraquet
The town of Caraquet, despite having a population of only 4200, calls itself “la Capitale de l’Acadie”, and has an outsized influence on the Acadian arts and culture scene. The province’s only francophone newspaper L’Acadie Nouvelle is based there, and it has the largest celebration of the Acadians’ national day of August 15. The riding includes the town and several surrounding villages.

The biggest political issue in the area has been the new shipyard in the village of Bas-Caraquet, which was a municipal make-work project that started in 2014 and had to be bailed out by the province in 2016, but is now on its feet.  

Hédard Albert, Caraquet’s Liberal MLA since 2003, has stepped down for health reasons. Juno-nominated musician and entrepreneur Isabelle Theriault is running for the Liberals this time.

Her PC opponent is Caraquet mayor Kevin Haché. Blaine Higgs thought he had a star candidate in Haché, and used his nomination meeting as a photo op to “introduce” himself to the Acadian community with his first-ever speech entirely in French. (The news that he wouldn’t take part in a French debate broke the next day, so out went that narrative.) It should have been a close race on paper, but Higgs’ failings in the francophone community leads me to give this one to Theriault.
Leaning Liberal

Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint Isidore
The boundaries commission, in its infinite wisdom, decided to split the city of Bathurst into two “rurban” ridings. This one merges the mostly Anglophone downtown and east end of the city with the Francophone communities around Allardville and Saint-Isidore.

Incumbent Liberal MLA Denis Landry has been in and out of the legislature several times since he was first elected in the old Centre-Péninsule riding in 1995. Former Bathurst councillor Michelle Branch has the PC nomination; she was one of the incumbents on council that was replaced with 100% new faces in 2016. Jean-Maurice Landry (no relation) has an active campaign for the NDP.

Urban-rural divide? Maybe. My guess? Probably not. The fact that the franco vote is more heavily Liberal than the anglo vote is PC should keep Landry in office.
Likely Liberal

Bathurst West-Beresford
This is the more francophone of the two Bathurst ridings, it also includes the suburban town of Beresford.

Liberal Brian Kenny has been in the legislature since 2003, first when all of Bathurst was in one riding and now in this one. He’s served various posts in both the Graham and Gallant cabinets, most recently as Minister of Education.

I can’t find any sort of biographical info about PC candidate Yvon Landry, which probably isn’t a good sign.
Safe Liberal

Restigouche-Chaleur
This riding includes a string of mostly Acadian fishing villages between Bathurst and Dalhousie. There’s also a seaport and coal-fired power plant in Belledune, which emission targets will force to close by 2030.

It’s a heavily Liberal seat, the NDP even finished 2nd in 2014. Daniel Guitard won his first term 4 years ago, succeeding longtime MLA Roland Haché. With weak PC and NDP candidates this time, Guitard should be easily re-elected.
Safe Liberal

Campbellton-Dalhousie
This riding includes the two largest urban centres in the Restigouche region. Campbellton is the larger of the two and is (slightly) better off economically, but Dalhousie has lost almost all of its large industries over the last 10 years. Campbellton was also the centre of the “free the beer” court case, which surprisingly hasn’t come up as much as I thought in this election.

Donald Arseneault, a Liberal MLA since 2003, quit to become a lobbyist last year. (He also briefly tried to serve as MLA at the same time, which as you can imagine is a big no-no). The Liberal nomination battle this year was probably more exciting than the election will be, with former MP Guy Arseneault winning out over both the mayors of Campbellton and Dalhousie.

Campbellton councillor Diane Cyr is running for the PCs, CUPE rep Therese Tremblay is running for the NDP.
Safe Liberal

Restigouche West
Historically this was one of the most interesting ridings in the province every election. It was made up of two towns of roughly equal size. Kedgwick always voted Liberal, Saint-Quentin always voted PC. The towns were demographically exactly the same, mostly francophone, mostly based on forestry. They voted differently for no other reason but lame regional rivalry. Even during the McKenna sweep in 1987, the margin of victory was only 17 votes. These days, thanks to boundary changes adding the more bilingual towns of Atholville, Tide Head and Balmoral, that effect is diluted, but you can still see it in poll-by-poll results.

(As an aside, and this has nothing to do with the election, just a comment on the ridiculousness of government in this province: along the side of highway 17 in this riding, there is a small monument commemorating the site of New Brunswick’s first provincial park. There’s no park there anymore - it was closed during budget cutbacks in the 90s - but there’s sure a nice monument.)
Liberal incumbent Gilles LePage is seeking his second term in the legislature. Former Saint-Quentin mayor David Moreau is carrying the PC banner and seems to have one of the more active campaigns for them in the north. Documentary filmmaker and Green candidate Charles Theriault won 18% of the vote in 2014 as an independent.
Likely Liberal

Victoria-La Vallée
This riding is centred on the town of Grand Falls, at the northern end of the province’s potato belt. Other towns include the farming community of Drummond and the forestry centre of Saint-Leonard. It’s mostly francophone but with a significant anglo minority.

The race this year is a rematch between one-term incumbent Liberal Chuck Chiasson, and his immediate predecessor, one-term PC Danny Soucy. I’m giving Chiasson the upper hand just based on the Liberals’ province-wide francophone strength.
Likely Liberal

Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
Like Bathurst, the boundary commission divided Edmundston into two “rurban” seats for the 2014 election. In this riding, the eastern end of the city is lumped in with the suburb of Saint-Basile and the rural villages of Sainte-Anne and Rivière-Verte.

Edmundston is one of the few places in northern New Brunswick where the economy is doing fine, in fact a CBC report earlier this week mentioned some businesses had the opposite problem – a lack of skilled workers in the area. But Trump’s tariffs may hit the city hard soon, as the city’s largest employer is in a weird position: the Twin Rivers pulp mill is connected by underground pipes to a paper mill right across the river in Madawaska, Maine.

Bernard Valcourt established a beachhead for the PCs in the Madawaska region when he was leader in 1995. Now-Senator Percy Mockler represented the rural part of this riding for several years, and Mado Dubé, who represented the city after Valcourt left provincial politics, served in the cabinets of both Lord and Alward.

Dubé, the last of the francophone class of 1999 for the PCs, is not running this time. The odds-on favourite is now former Liberal MP Jean-Claude d’Amours. Lawyer Gerard Levesque is running for the Tories. If there’s one Liberal pickup from the PCs in the province, this should be it.
Likely Liberal

Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston
Finally, in the far northwest corner of the province, is this riding, made up of the part of Edmundston west of the Madawaska River, the suburbs of Saint-Jacques and Verret, and a string of farming communities along the Saint John River and CN mainline to the west. A large chicken processing plant is located in Clair.

Economic development minister Francine Landry is seeking her second term for the Liberals, but Lord-era cabinet minister Jeannot Volpé is also seeking a return to politics. He publicly criticized Blaine Higgs when Higgs was finance minister for not keeping the deficit under control (to be fair, he was kind of hamstrung by Alward on that), but has kept his mouth shut about him so far on the campaign.

He has not kept his mouth shut about women though….in a radio interview last week, Volpé talked about how he had 3 boys, but would like a girl as a “dish washer”. Landry has taken that quote and plastered it all over social media. It’s getting nasty up there.
PC-Liberal tossup

The random PC communities/ridings in otherwise Liberal Acadia are fascinating, if not puzzling. Two neighbour towns vote differently due to a rivalry? wtf?

Welcome to the tribal world of east coast politics.

This.

Looking at how Saint-Quentin votes federally, and yup, in typical Atlantic Canadian fashion, when they decide they don't want to vote Conservative, they vote NDP.

So I could only get through about 25 minutes of that leaders' roundtable because I've had enough of Brian Gallant talking about Blaine Higgs' time as finance minister and constantly hearing the word "cuts" but I guess that's NB politics baby

Both Higgs and Gallant were punchier. I think Coon won by default.

Aren't are politics glorious :)

Nanos: 37-30-12-11-10.

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018-1252-Telegraph-Journal-W3-Populated-Report-with-Tabs.pdf

Another telephone survey showing the Liberals with a larger lead than the IVR polling. Looking forward to Mainstreet's numbers.

If PA + PC get more votes than Liberals and vote splitting costs the PCs the election, I think you will start to see the federal Tories be more concerned about Maxime Bernier's People's Party as in some ways this is a proxy for what might come federally with PCs being equivalent to the Tories and PA equivalent to the People's Party.

This back's up Earl's assertion that the Greens are in the mix in more seats than we first thought. They've released an internal poll showing them in 2nd in Memramcook-Tantramar.
https://twitter.com/matchism/status/1043157434875834368

Just from my view of the lay of the land, I now also wouldn't be surprised if Fredericton North had a weird result too....PC, LIB, GRN and PA could all get 20+%.

As for the People's Alliance....watch out for old COR-country seats like Southwest Miramichi, Albert and Carleton-York. They may now be within spitting distance of the PCs. Not to mention others (Oromocto-Lincoln and several around Saint John) where they may have risen enough to get Liberals elected on a vote split.

At least when it comes to New Brunswick--thanks to the CoR tradition, it's probably the next likeliest spot for the People's Party to be competitive after Beauce; but that could also turn out to be the "electable" limits of its reach...

Mainstreet: 35-29-16-15-3.

Look at those Fredericton numbers: 29-23-23-22.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/nb-liberals-leading-as-election-draws-to-a-close/

So a Greeit minority then?

Or the slimmest of majorities. Depends how well the Greens and PA do in terms of seat distribution.

Also, weird poll. Why is Saint John lumped in with the rest of New Brunswick? It's the province's second largest city.

The 'rest of NB' numbers are useless, since it covers such a diverse region.

Yup. I still think the most likely scenario is the Liberals keeping their majority off PA-PC vote splits.

There will be Green-Liberal vote splits too, and that will hurt the Liberals in at least Fredericton, and possibly Moncton. Might cost them Fredericton North, and the two PC held Moncton seats.

My recollection from last years provincial election in NS was that the geographical splits were terrible all around.

I'm starting to think that I'm the only pollster in the country that gives a damn about geography at all.

Turns out Mainstreet's wasn't that bad... but Forums was ing horrendous.

With all the recent movement in the polls, I'm going to update my outlook on the ridings....in the case of tossups, the first one listed is what my Elect-O-Matic 3000 (TM) says is going to win. As always, I reserve the right to be wrong:

SAINT JOHN AREA
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins: likely PC
Hampton: likely PC
Quispamsis: safe PC
Rothesay: safe PC
Saint John East: PC-Liberal tossup
Portland-Simonds: leaning PC
Saint John Harbour: Liberal-PC tossup
Saint John Lancaster: PC-Liberal tossup
Kings Centre: PC-Liberal tossup
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West: Liberal-PC tossup
Charlotte-Campobello: leaning PC

FREDERICTON AREA
Gagetown-Petitcodiac: likely PC
Oromocto-Lincoln: Liberal-PC tossup
Fredericton-Grand Lake: likely PANB
New Maryland-Sunbury: PC-Liberal tossup
Fredericton South: likely Green
Fredericton North: Liberal-PC-Green tossup
Fredericton-York: PC-Liberal-PANB tossup
Fredericton West-Hanwell: PC-Liberal tossup
Carleton-York: leaning PC
Carleton: likely PC
Carleton-Victoria: Liberal-PC tossup

MONCTON AREA
Kent North: Liberal-Green tossup
Kent South: likely Liberal
Shediac Bay-Dieppe: safe Liberal
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé: likely Liberal
Memramcook-Tantramar: Liberal-Green tossup
Dieppe: safe Liberal
Moncton East: leaning Liberal
Moncton Centre: Liberal-PC-indy tossup
Moncton South: Liberal-PC tossup
Moncton Northwest: leaning PC
Moncton Southwest: leaning PC
Riverview: safe PC
Albert: leaning PC

NORTH
Restigouche West: likely Liberal
Campbellton-Dalhousie: likely Liberal
Restigouche-Chaleur: safe Liberal
Bathurst West-Beresford: safe Liberal
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore: safe Liberal
Caraquet: leaning Liberal
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou: PC-Liberal tossup
Tracadie-Sheila: likely Liberal
Miramichi Bay-Neguac: Liberal-PC tossup
Miramichi: PC-Liberal tossup
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin: PC-PANB tossup
Victoria-La Vallée: leaning Liberal
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre: likely Liberal
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston: Liberal-PC tossup

It all adds up to....
Liberal - 25
PC - 22
Green - 1
PANB - 1

One last poll from Forum: 36-29-16-14-4.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/1057eeda-8d65-48d7-8a72-c4fb93758d9dNb%20final%202018.pdf

Their Fredericton numbers confirm the cluster that is that city. Just like Mainstreet, they have the Liberals ahead there though, which is not what I've been seeing...

This is going to be one of the most interesting NB elections in recent memory

I've got 25-22-1-1 as well, but some of the seats are different. And I'm being rather conservative on PANB and Green chances at multiple seats, which I think is very likely, but I can't be sure exactly where they will make gains, as there could be some surprises.

I assume results will start to come out 7PM EST?  Any links to live stream and results ?

I'm guessing there will be a Live stream on CBC's website (or YouTube channel) or alternatively if you just want results, you can go here:

https://www.gnb.ca/elections/results-resultats/2018-09-24/results-resultats.html#at/e468f4a1-f9de-4425-a60a-cb5cbca025b5/ar/51/

My predictions. We haven't done any riding polls, so most of this is based on small sample sizes.

Seats with an asterix (*) denote high uncertainty

Fredericton CA
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton
Fredericton-Grand Lake (gain)
New Maryland-Sunbury
Fredericton South
Fredericton North* (gain)
Fredericton-York
Fredericton West-Hanwell

Unlike the other pollsters, our numbers don't show the Liberals leading in Fredericton, thus the shutout. There will be a lot of 3-way or even 4-way races though. Fredericton North will be emblematic of this.

Moncton CMA
Shediac Bay-Dieppe
Dieppe
Moncton East
Moncton Centre
Moncton South
Moncton Northwest* (gain)
Moncton Southwest* (gain)
Riverview
Albert*


We've got the Liberals doing well in Moncton, but does that mean any seat gains? Possibly, but not certainly. Also, the PANB could win Albert, just as the COR did in 1991.

Rural North & East
Restigouche West
Campbellton-Dalhousie
Restigouche-Chaleur
Bathurst West-Beresford
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore
Caraquet
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou
Tracadie-Sheila*
Miramichi Bay-Neguac
Miramichi*
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin* (gain)
Kent North
Kent South
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé*
Memramcook-Tantramar
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre (gain)
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston

The Liberals have some massive leads in this Francophone majority part of the province, and is why they have a seat disadvantage overall. While I'm predicting a sweep, it's not that likely that will actually happen. There will be some races to watch here for sure. Things are super close in Tracadie-Sheila where former MLA Claude Landry looks to take his seat back from the PCs. In the two Miramichi seats, we could be looking at some 3-ways with the Liberals, PCs and PANB. I think the Liberals come up the middle in both, but who knows. Without Mado Dube on the ballot, Edmundston-Madawaska Centre will be an easy pickup for the Grits. The Greens also might have a shot at Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé, which is an open seat and has had some water quality problems at a local beach, which may be fueling some environmental activism.


Saint John CMA
Hampton
Quispamsis
Rothesay
Saint John East (gain from last election)
Portland-Simonds
Saint John Harbour* (gain)
Saint John Lancaster
Kings Centre

We've got the PCs well ahead in Saint John, but that doesn't mean the swing will be uniform. Working class Saint John Harbour may buck the trend and stay with the Liberals. The question will be how much does NDP leader Jennifer Mackenzie siphon off Liberal votes there? May be enough to give the PCs the victory, even if she only gets ~10% of the vote.

Rural South & West
Gagetown-Petitcodiac
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West*
Saint Croix (gain)
Carleton-York
Carleton* (gain)
Carleton-Victoria
Victoria-La Vallée* (gain)

The PCs are polling very well in the southwest too, and it might be enough to sweep the region. However, they have to have a huge swing in Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West to overcome in order to do so. They don't have as much of a swing to overcome in Victoria-La Vallée though, but the riding's Francophones may have something to say about that. Looks like the race in Carleton might be really interesting. It could be a surprise Green pickup, as they are running the Deputy Mayor of Woodstock. The PANB may also come up the middle there.

Unless the polls are spectacularly wrong, I think we can expect a few things today.

1.  Liberals will win the popular vote
2.  Liberals will get under 40%
3.  PCs will get a smaller share of the popular vote than they got in 2014
4.  The PC + PANB vote will exceed the Liberal one so vote splitting here and will also be over 40%
5. PC vote is more efficient so they can still win more seats even if they don't win the popular vote as Liberals will run up the margins in the Francophone parts, but PCs will win majority of Anglophone seats albeit by much smaller margins.
6.  Lots of three and even four way races in Fredericton, highly likely a few MLAs will be elected with less than 30% of the popular vote.

At what time do the polls close?

8 local, 7 ET.

I'm guessing using the cube root model:

Lib: 28
PC: 17
Green: 2
PA: 2

I'm usually spectacularly wrong, so given my projection, you should all bet on a Tory majority :P

Anecdotally, a friend with pretty deep New Brunswick political connections says that turnout in some of the super-Liberal St. John polls isn't as high as it should be.

Turnout in Saint John was pretty low last time. The amount of voters in the entire metro area was less than in Fredericton, despite having one more seat.

Any theories as to why?

Saint John is a fairly poor city, while Fredericton is the capital, so lots of highly engaged public servants.

SOON.  (https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/nbvotes/results/)

Streams:

CBC - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-election-day-1.4835463
CTV - https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.4106874

20 minutes. Hopefully we’ll know by midnight Atlantic time.

I think the results should come in fairly fast as they use machines instead of hand counts, much like Ontario.  Off course if razor thin then it might take a while.  And if there is a minority, then it might be days.  Otherwise if PCs win a minority, but Liberals + Greens have majority, Liberals probably stay on, while if Liberals win most seats, but PCs + PANB get majority, then PCs form government, shades of what we have in BC.

Please no I have to be up at 5:30 lol

Greens leading in Restigouche West. Not expecting that, but it seems it was on their target list.

()

It's looking like it might be a minority or perhaps even a tie.  Interesting People's Alliance looks like it will come in third, so if PCs + PA get a majority, while the People's Alliance back the PCs regardless of seats or do an issue by issue?

They seem pretty quick to me so far.

()

CTV projects NO MAJORITY

Liberals with a decent PV lead, but are trailing in seats. Thank you, FPTP.

Will be interesting.  While probably an issue by issue as People's Alliance won't prop up particular party, I suspect you will see PC + PA on one side and Lib + Greens on other.  Unlike BC, doubt this will last a full four years.

Chaos scenario.

It looks like a minority anyways and under PR not always the largest party forms government.  I think if PCs lose the popular vote but get a majority that is a different story, but if a minority, there is no reason the popular vote winner cannot form government if they can gain the confidence.

Current leading and elected numbers

()

This is turning into exhibit 427 of why FPTP is bad.

Jennifer McKenzie is getting 5% of the vote in her riding.

Huge linguistic divide.  Liberals cleaning up the Francophone areas, but in Anglophone areas, not only are PCs well in the lead, People's Alliance are coming in second in many.

Um, no. She's over 10%

My mistake, sorry.  She's around 15%

People's Alliance is doing very well. Wonder why the breakthrough this time...

People tired of the two main parties which haven't achieved much.  Also their stance on bilingualism is more of an issue with the large deficit as scrapping or limiting its use would save money.  Off course it could create a whole set of other problems, but that is probably the reason I presume.

Trump's election empowered bigots.

Well, nice to know the NDP is in second place in a few districts, at least. Didn't see that coming.

Mostly in heavily Francophone areas.  I suspect Blaine Higgs being unilingual made the PCs unacceptable in many of those areas so those who disliked the Liberals either went Green or NDP.

David Akin "Should the (New Brunswick) NDP continue to exist?"

David Akin is an idiot. Film at 11.

Why not merge with the Greens? McKenzie's comments were kinda dumb. Going on about being the future of the province when you couldn't get higher than 3rd in your own riding is pretty pathetic.

Well, that's not what he said.  NDP supporters would say they have significant differences with the Greens.  I certainly don't know that the "NDP is the future of the province" but how many elections did the Greens run in before they started to win?

Electoral reform will most likely be talked about a lot over the next four years, so no reason for the NDP to go anywhere.

French speaking NB'ers are sounding the alarm on Twitter over the PA's sending 4 members to government.

Exactly. Parties aren't run by promiscuous profs and anti-conservatism is hardly sufficient to bring two very different groups together.

Took a look at the map and my goodness the boundaries are terrible.

@506: Is your boundaries commision sexually aroused by rurban seats?!

The seats had to be within 5% of the population quota, creating for some weird looking ridings.

Absolutely wild that the People's Alliance is doing so well

Amazing how PA came out of nowhere to win a double digit vote share.  It seems that they just took off last couple of weeks.

Tied at 21 seats now.

Ah that makes sense.


Equally nuts is how few seats the PC's have lost due to vote splits. You'd think the Liberals would win half a dozen seats off PA's surge, but apparently not.

21/21/4/3 right now

Libs ahead in Saint John Harbour, tying the seat totals

NB Liberal results are starting to resemble the PLQ's :P

Libs down 11 to Greens in MEMRAMCOOK-TANTRAMAR. One poll get. Libs could jet barely squeak ahead in seat totals.

Are most of the Liberal ridings the Liberals are losing the open seat Liberal ridings?

Will really depend on where the poll is. The francophone part of the rising is hardcore Liberal, but the rest of the rising is pretty weak for them.

It seems it was mostly cabinet ministers who lost.

Wonder if that's indicative of something or just luck of the draw.

Yeah, the rest of the riding is Sackville, a university town - i.e. very Green friendly.

I'm sure many of the Liberal MLAs are cabinet ministers, but there were, I believe, 7 or 8 ridings where Liberal MLAs weren't 'reoffering.'

Rick Doucet who had been a Liberal MLA since I believe 2003 though lost pretty badly.

I don't think we find out the winner tonight

My usual question in these situations: any possibility of a 'grand coalition'? :)

Interesting that some polls actually overestimated the Greens and the PA. They're only in the low teens.

Probably lacked the organization to get all their supporters out.

No. Gallant put the kibosh on that in the last debate.

Dominic Cardy must be happy.

Cardy's master plan worked, he completely destroyed the NDP in NB then jumped to the PCs

As usual, this is a disgusting 'well hung' parliament.

Impressively ugly voting patterns I note. Christ.

I had no idea NB had a minority government before, but apparently they last had one in 1920, when the United Farmers and Farmer-Labour parties won seats.

Apparently the final polls aren't reporting because the machines are down.

It's a bit odd, as far as I can recall usually when a person changes parties and runs for them they get crushed.  Like Ryan Cleary for instance.

If it stays at 21-21 which party is in a better position to be asked to form a minority government ?

The 3rd Green has been declared elected.

I'd guess the P.Cs because they're a better fit with the People's Alliance. But it would be 25-24.

Yeah, and Libs would get first crack at it since they are incumbent. I'd be surprised if they don't have elections within a year tbh.

Dominic Cardy the mini Ross Thatcher.

I have to wonder why the PA is doing so well in Fredericton?

New Brunswick strikes again!

PCs now lead in SW Miramichi.

What a weird result.

Regardless of how Southwest Miramichi goes, it looks like unless Saint John Harbour flips on the recount, you have 25 seats for PCs + PANB and 24 seats for Liberals + Greens.  Neither Liberals or Greens are likely to want to put up a speaker while a speaker from PCs + PANB means a tie so I would be surprised if this government lasts over a year.  If you thought BC in 2017 was going to be difficult, this will be even more so.

PA now leads PC by 28 votes with one poll remaining in SOUTHWEST MIRAMICHI-BAY DU VIN

Just as Blaine Higgs does his victory speech

PCs win SW Miramichi. PCs get 22 seats.

PC wins  SOUTHWEST MIRAMICHI-BAY DU VIN by 35 votes, PC wins Minority Gov't

Final poll came in, PCs bested PA by 35 votes in Bay du Vin.

22/21/3/3

Who’s ready for another Strong and Stable® conservative government?

Brian Gallant and the Liberals will get the first chance to govern but chances are, they won't be commanding confidence of the house. I say NBers head back to the polls in 6 months, 1 year max.

This.

Wonder how the next one will go.

And remember: unlike the BCNDP, the NB PCs are *significantly* behind the Libs in vote totals, as opposed to seat totals.

One thing that eternally puzzles me about the NB NDP is why they've never had Acadian leadership or pursued anything other than a too-backhanded-for-its-own-good Acadian strategy--I mean, the federal Yvon Godin legacy together with the constituencies where they actually have shown provincial ballast (including in the present election) suggest that they could be making hay that way; but, no...

Map

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Had Godin become leader years ago, think of how different things would've been...

Roger Duguay?

Fun fact: Duguay is running for the NDP in the Quebec election :D

Wow... no regional divide here, at all eh :P

It's not quite the same circumstances but this bodies well for the Tories federally in NB next year.

Gallant spoke to the LG (https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/09/25/new-brunswick-deadlock-conservatives-and-liberals-to-vie-for-power-2/#.W6pLUmhKiUl), who told him to test confidence. He also spoke to the Greens and talked about many shared values. PA says they haven't talked to Higgs yet and are running a Twitter poll on who to support.

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1.The Wikipedia numbers are slightly different than my totals for some reason (they have more voters.) I compiled my numbers from the Elections New Brunswick website. There was not a single riding I noticed where all the polls had not come in.  However, it doesn't change the totals significantly.  

2.Fairness has nothing to do with life, but this result was really not fair to the Liberals.  While it has been noted that the Liberals dominated Northern New Brunswick which gave them the popular vote win, in fact, from the Wiki regional breakdown, the Liberals came ahead of the Progressive Conservatives in 4 of the 6 New Brunswick regions.  The Liberals came first in 21 ridings, second in 20, and third in just 7 (4th in one.)

3.I think something of an unusual result.  Of the 27 ridings the Liberals won in 2014, 19 incumbents ran again and just 14 were reelected.  In the 8 ridings with no Liberal incumbent (one ran as an independent) the Liberals held 7 of those ridings.  

4.I think clearly the main reason the Liberals could not benefit from the People's Alliance splitting the vote with the P.Cs is because the ridings the P.A did best in were mostly P.C held ridings and the Liberals did not gain any seats from the P.Cs.  They came close in a couple of them, especially Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton where the P.C incumbent Jody Carr did not reoffer, and the Liberals ran John Fife, a retired Army Colonel.

5.Of the six ridings the Liberals lost, 3 went P.C, 2 went Green and 1 went P.A.

6.The stupidest loss I think had to be Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou, a riding in the otherwise heavily Liberal north where Wilfred Roussel lost to 'star' P.C candidate Robert Gauvin (he is the son of a former P.C MLA.)  Apparently this loss was a result of federal cuts to E.I benefits to the many seasonal workers in the riding.  The reason I think this loss was stupid was because I saw a clip on this riding and the P.C voters in this riding were interviewed at a Blaine Higgs rally in the riding and they said both "we're not happy with the E.I cuts" and then said "we believe that Blaine Higgs will solve the financial mess, the large deficits, that Brian Gallant has created."

I realize that the E.I program is federal, but this attitude clearly stems from the idiotic notion that when taxes are sent to governments, that governments 'waste' the money by somehow either burning it, locking it in a safe or otherwise 'wasting' it.  I have no doubt that if you were to interview many Canadians and explained the reality of government spending (nearly all money goes to public sector workers and much of the rest is sent out in various payments to people), that sending E.I payments to people who work less than half a year would be an example of where most people would say that cuts could be made.

7.The NDP received over 10% of the vote in four ridings.  One of those ridings, Dieppe, may have been because the NDP candidate Joyce Richardson might be a fairly high profile lawyer, but it might also be because the Green Party did not run a candidate in that riding.  She received 14.6% of the vote.  The second highest vote getter for the NDP was leader Jennifer McKenzie at 14.7%.  The other two ridings where the NDP received over 10% of the vote were two Northern ridings:  Tracadie-Sheila where Francis Duguay received 14.6% of the vote and Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint Isidore where Jean Maurice Landry received 29.6% of the vote.  Landry is the President of the Blueberry Farmers of New Brunswick.


These are the results by region based on the numbers from Elections New Brunswick.

These are my total results

Total Votes 376,923
Liberal: 143,620
P.C: 118,212
P.A: 47,709
Green: 45,173
NDP: 19,026
Other: 3,183

These are the total results posted on Wikipedia

Liberal: 143,791
P.C: 121,300
P.A: 47,860
Green: 45,186
NDP:  19,039
Other: 3,187

I'm not sure where the differences come from.  As you can clearly see, the main difference is with the P.C vote, but I don't think that would alter the regional placements.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Brunswick_general_election,_2018  is where I've taken the regional breakdowns from, except for one mistake, which I haven't corrected for in these totals (sorry.)  


Northern: 61,570
Liberal: 33,973, 55.2%
P.C: 13,753, 22.3%
NDP: 6,413, 10.4%
Green: 5,652, 9.2%
P.A: 558
Other: 1,221

Miramichi: 24,313
P.A: 8,609, 35.4%
Liberal: 8,075, 33.2%
P.C: 5,727, 23.6%
Green: 972, 4.0%
NDP: 912, 3.8%
Other: 18

Southeastern: 115,461 (I mistakenly added the riding of Sussex-Fundy-St Martins in this region)
Liberal: 50,533, 43.8%
P.C: 32,569, 28.2%
Green: 16,984, 14.7%
P.A: 7,967, 6.9%
NDP: 6,011, 5.2%
Other: 1,397

Southern: 71,803? (Sussex-Fundy-St Martins should be counted in this region)
P.C: 33,300, 46.4%
Liberal: 15,051, 26.8%
P.A: 9,149, 12.7%
Green: 6,117, 8.5%
NDP: 3,609, 5.0%
Other: 382? (I may have double counted)

Capital Region: 66,931
P.C: 20,534, 30.7%
P.A: 18,440, 27.6%
Liberal: 15,051, 22.5%
Green: 11,583, 17.3%
NDP: 1,216, 1.8%
Other: 107

Upper River Valley: 36,845
Liberal: 16,742, 45.4%
P.C: 12,329, 33.5%
Green: 3,865, 10.8%
P.A: 2,986, 8.1%
NDP: 865, 2.3%
Other: 58

Wanting logic out of the Maritime relationship with Pogey is asking a lot...

The Wikipedia numbers come from Teddy's spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13PId5WHFO82sKgbtpimz5eABDjDsb43LuFVyrQ2_zHw/edit#gid=0

Hey, maybe Cardy can run for Speaker.

Aw, jeez, forgot about him.  (Then again, his tenure was kind of "forgettable".  Maybe he should have been more Bathurst-based, or something...)

He's running for the NDP-Q, having move to Quebec City to live with his boyfriend (he also discovered he is gay).

Guess he's not a priest anymore, then.

Either way, PC+PA would still have 1 more vote than Lib+Green since the Liberal would have won w/o the Green.

It'd be a different situation though if the Libs were even on seats with the PCs instead of one down.

It seems as though it actually isn't a different situation as based on convention the Liberals still get the first chance to form the government.

If results were proportional (idk why I do this with a lot of elections but I do)

Seat changes are from the actual results

Liberal: 19 seats (-2)
Progressive Conservative: 16 seats (-6)
People's Alliance: 6 seats (+3)
Greens: 6 seats (+3)
NDP: 2 seats (+2)

Likely government would be Liberal+Green

Or Liberal+Green+NDP to get by the speaker issue.

A majority of the province voted for left of centre parties (and yes, the NB Liberals are a centre-left party, unlike the rest of their Atlantic counterparts). Reason #393 why we need electoral reform.

Yes.

And given the results they'd still have to rely on the People's Alliance to prop up the government, which would be just a tad awkward for both parties :P

Wait till we get to Quebec...CAQ might lose the pop vote but get 30 more seats then the PLQ. The incredulous thing though is that following New Brunswick's hung government, there has been chatter about electoral reform by every party except the PLQ!

The PLQ deserve to lose government if they are stupid enough to not support electoral reform when it would help them immensely.

But it wouldn't help them - they would likely be in opposition most of the time with PR, as opposed to being in government most of the time with the present system.

Which begs the question of what kind of coalitions PR would create in Quebec. Is it that far fetched that the CAQ would be the party most willing to work with the Liberals?

Apparently a Higgs staffer sent an unauthorized email to Liberal MLA Brian Kenny in an attempt to have a phonecall to "discuss the future government"

let the speaker poaching begin!

Ideologically no, but if they are the two largest parties they might not be keen to work together... Of course if we had PR who knows what the alignment would look like.

I could see the CAQ working with the Liberals or the PQ, but I don't think the Liberals would have any choice but to work with the CAQ. Separatism would be a non starter for working with the other parties.

Of course, PR would probably see the rise of the smaller federalist parties, as people wouldn't feel the need to hold their nose and vote Liberal. But, coalitions would most likely be formed on the separatist vs federalist axis, rather than on ideology, which would cause for some strange bedfellows. Imagine a coalition of the NDP, Greens, Liberals and Conservatives!

I wouldn't say so - support for separatism is in the gutter. If anything, this election is what happens after the PLQ finally won that debate with the PQ in 2014. The CAQ rose in part because francophones are tired of having to compromise towards separatism. Then QS rose to everyone's left, since the federal 'left' voter on the island no longer feels forced to cast a ballot against the PQ. If anything, both previous parties have kinda been exposed this election, with the PLQ only treading water thanks to their loyal base of allophones, but even that's significantly down from 2014.

This Quebec election shows what every big party fears from electoral Reform: a change in the political spectrum. FPTP parties spend their history appealing to the median voter not thier base which is assumed to be loyal. But if the spectrum changes, the base will easily leave for a more applicable party if not cared for appropriately. I think the BC Libs fear this more then anything else, since their current coalition is entirely built around opposition to the NDP.

In 2007-8 ADQ worked with Charest, so I could see PLQ working with CAQ on econ issues. More likely issue by issue, and Legault said he wants the Assembly to last as long as possible.

The People's Alliance are now saying that they won't work with the PCs...things are getting chippy in NB

I don't see a path for government then. Liberal + Green isn't enough, and the Liberals would lose the Francophone vote for a generation if they decided to work with the PA of all parties.

PC+Green, but how likely is that?

Or PC minority through a deal with the Liberals (although I think it's even more unlikely than PC-Green, but this option is immune to the speaker issue)?

Just talking hypotheticals here, under PR. Coalitions may become necessary (rather than 'partnerships') with PR, otherwise you get elections every 2 years.

Speaking of Quebec and PR, if the experiences here and in Scotland are any indicator, the main axis will vary in time and depends on how important devolution and/or independence are at the time.

So for example for Quebec I'd imagine that in the 80s and 90s it would be extremely polarized around independence, not left-right. Meanwhile now I guess it would be closer and potentially more centered on standard left-right issues. Interestingly PLQ would be both blessed (as a centrist party they can potentially reach deals with anyone) and cursed (as the only unionist/federalist party, any deal will be tough)

Also, another thing that could happen is that Quebec could potentially become a 1 party province.

PNV has ruled the Basque Country basically forever except 2009-2012 (and the 2009 election saw some secessionist parties banned and is controversial). Catalonia has been ruled by CiU (and their succesors) every time except 2003-2010.

Scotland is a bit closer but even there the SNP has been in power since 2007 and it doesn't seem like they'll lose power any time soon.

While the horse trading begins, ENB put out the poll-by-poll results out pretty quickly, and they're up on the atlas:

http://www.election-atlas.ca/nb/

Remember St-Quentin, that town in that usually votes Conservative out of spite? It went Green this time. Go figure.

So if a PC minority government with PA support happens, will PA simply pull its support after 18 months and force new elections?

If it isn't in their interests, then yes. But if the govt works, then they probably extend their support for a greater period.

Not sure what anybody should make of this.  There is no agreement on anything other than the P.A leader has said his party won't bring down a P.C government for 18 months.  However, this is just an 'informal agreement' there isn't even an agreement on supply and confidence and the P.A also has a platform pledge to not whip votes, so how can he now promise his members won't vote to bring down a P.C government?

I'm not trying to play any politics here since I'm left leaning and these do seem to be the only possible parties that could agree (though maybe the P.Cs and the Greens can get together) baring recounts, but if this informal arrangement is the only agreement between the P.Cs and the P.A, I think the Lieutenant Governor would have to reject it as it simply provides no guarantees for even 18 months.

Kind of amazing how the PANB didn't do that well in the south. They're basically the Fredericton exurbs + Miramichi party. I wonder if this is because much of the southwest is fairly religious, and not therefore not as prone to populism?

Apparently Liberal MLA Donald Arsenault called PC MLA Ross Whetmore and asked him what his price would be to cross the floor but Whetmore said that he's not for sale

Why on earth would they ask a Tory who won their seat by 20 points and beat the Liberals by 30? They should have at least tried someone who could plausibly be reelected as a Liberal.

They're just grasping at straws at this point I think

Donald Arseneault was probably the most hyper-partisan Liberal MLA in the province. He has no shame.

Is there any chance at all of any PC legislator(-elect) moving to the Liberals?

*Maybe* Robert Gauvin if the PCs get too close to the PA. But even then I'm not so sure.

Andrea Anderson-Mason, PC MLA for Fundy-The Isles was also contacted by the Liberals asking what it would cost to have her cross the floor...she too said her seat is NOT FOR SALE. Brian Gallant is making himself look worse and worse.

Possibly Robert Gauvin but I highly doubt it

Agreed he's grasping at straws here. The situation is so unstable he could very easily be back in power in a year if he just sits back and plays his cards right, but he not helping  his case here.

Let the PC-PA government collapse, pick off a few seats, and boom has back in driver's seat.

Parties can pay legislators to cross the floor? That seems... wrong.

Oh its greasy.

Back in 2005, there was a very close non-confidence vote where every vote counted. The Liberals gave Belinda Stronach a cabinet post to change sides and keep their government alive and the Tories offered an independent MP dying of cancer a life insurance policy to bring the government down.

Pan A was to do well in the south, but this was PANB  and it worked out pretty well for them. :)

Only way for Lib/Green gov't (Libs have first crack at forming gov't as incumbents/obtaining confidence of the house) is for Libs to convince one PC MLA (or even PA MLA) to become speaker. Key here.

Same matter that played out in BC. Suspect alot of convincing now occurring behind the scenes. Whether this plays out or not... time will tell.

All 3 recounts finished (Saint John Harbour, Memramcook-Tantramar, Oromocto-Lincoln). Not a single vote changed.

The tabulators actually worked!

Gallant recalling legislature on October 23rd so should be interesting.  Unless either the PCs or People's Alliance puts up a speaker, I cannot see him getting a throne speech through.  While that would mean Blaine Higgs becomes premier, I would be shocked if the current arrangement allows the government to last more than a year.  Off course if the Liberal or Green speaker stays on after Higgs becomes premier, then it might be possible to last longer, shades of BC since had the NDP not managed to get Darryl Plecas as speaker I think they would have had a much tougher time staying on as long as they have.

It's also possible the Liberals and the Greens fail to put a Speaker too, which would likely lead to new elections due to failure to elect a Speaker.

this (and the BC election) has really exposed a massive flaw in parliamentary tradition.

Um, how did this not happen in 2003? Very similar scenario. The PCs without the speaker had the same amount of seats as the Liberals+NDP.

PCs were incumbents, so they could keep confidence with the casting vote, which the Liberals cannot do now (as Lib+Grn-1 is smaller than PC+PA).

Also, the incumbent Speaker was still around and just ran again.

Grits giving up? https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/status/1053345824615346177

Ugh finally. How long does it take to calculate Lib + Green < PC + PA?

The Liberals have fallen! Blaine Higgs will be the next Premier of New Brusnwick.

Here is the link:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-confidence-vote-liberals-gallant-1.4888347

It's official Blaine Higgs will be the next premier of New Brunswick.  So looking at the three elections this year, a great year if you are a conservative.  3 for 3 (I consider CAQ a small c conservative) while a disaster if a Liberal having the worst showing since confederation in the two largest provinces while losing after one term in New Brunswick.  Off course that doesn't mean Trudeau will necessarily lose, if you look at Canada's history more often than not, provincial premiers tend to be of different ideologies than the federal government so having progressive governments dominating at all levels was bound to change.  Having mostly conservative premiers with a progressive prime minister in many ways sort of achieves the balance if you are a swing voter and I suspect once the Tories return to power, you will soon after see many provincial governments swing leftward. 

For the NDP sort of a mixed bag but I guess you could say a reasonably good year as Ontario is really the only province they are much of a factor in; in Quebec and New Brunswick they've always been rather weak.  A great year for the Greens too as they won their first seat in Ontario while New Brunswick will join BC in being the first two provinces to elect multiple Green members.

PEI also has two Green members, since Hannah Bell was elected in a by-election in Charlottetown-Parkdale last year.

MQO research has first post election poll.  Slight uptick for PCs, major fall for Liberals, surge for Greens, while PANB flat.

PC 36%
Liberal 29%
Green 21%
PANB 11%

Mmm, Tories ought to be able to pull a majority on those #'s

Gallant resigning as Liberal leader.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/liberal-leader-brian-gallant-new-brunswick-election-1.4906417

Wonder if he will resign his seat too.  He says not, but it is a very safe Liberal one so no risk of it flipping.  Up until now, he has more or less followed the exact footsteps Christy Clark did so seems like deja vu all over again, so if he doesn't do this that would be the one break.