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Title: VA-Monmouth: Northam +5 Post by: Gass3268 on September 26, 2017, 12:08:56 PM Northam 49 (+5)
Gillespie 44 (-/+) Source (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_VA_092617/) NoVA: 56-39 Northam East: 49-40 Northam Central: 49-48 Northam West: 50-43 Gillespie The 4% that are undecided only have a 30% approval rating of Trump. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: Northam +5 Post by: Virginiá on September 26, 2017, 12:22:40 PM I'm not sure what polls from 2013 had for AAs (it could be the same I guess), but it seems like these are anticipating a return to pre/early Obama African American turnout, which was around 16% in 2009. That would make sense given last year, except in Virginia '16 exit polls showed blacks turning out at almost the same numbers as 2012, maybe even a little more. There is no appreciable off-year drop in black turnout as well, if you go by 2013, which had 20% turnout.
Also seems to be a bit light on 18-29 year olds. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: Northam +5 Post by: Gass3268 on September 26, 2017, 01:43:24 PM Bummed they didn't ask about the state house races.
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: Northam +5 Post by: Ebsy on September 26, 2017, 03:26:51 PM I wonder why all the pollsters decided to end the polling drought in Virginia.
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: Northam +5 Post by: heatcharger on September 26, 2017, 11:58:24 PM I wonder why all the pollsters decided to end the polling drought in Virginia. I hope they didn't blow their collective loads and not have enough money to poll the race in the last two weeks. This is pretty much what happened in 2016, which was part of the reason certain states were neglected by certain campaigns. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: Northam +5 Post by: Gass3268 on September 27, 2017, 11:51:25 AM I wonder why all the pollsters decided to end the polling drought in Virginia. I hope they didn't blow their collective loads and not have enough money to poll the race in the last two weeks. This is pretty much what happened in 2016, which was part of the reason certain states were neglected by certain campaigns. My guess is there will be one more round of polls right before the election at the end of October or early November. Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: Northam +5 Post by: Smilin Jim on September 29, 2017, 07:07:29 PM One would think that liberals would learn from last year and stop trusting their fake polls, but apparently that's not the case.
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: Northam +5 Post by: Young Conservative on October 08, 2017, 06:15:06 PM Gillespie should direct his money to the east and west heavily. Reduce Northam West margins or win it and increase his margin in the west. That is the only way he wins. NOVA is lost.
Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: Northam +5 Post by: Maxwell on October 08, 2017, 07:02:01 PM One would think that liberals would learn from last year and stop trusting their fake polls, but apparently that's not the case. I don't follow. Polls in Virginia in 2016 were remarkably accurate (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5966.html). Title: Re: VA-Monmouth: Northam +5 Post by: Frodo on October 08, 2017, 07:37:13 PM Gillespie should direct his money to the east and west heavily. By 'east', I'm assuming you mean Tidewater and the Eastern Shore? Quote Reduce Northam West margins or win it and increase his margin in the west. That is the only way he wins. NOVA is lost. ??? In English, please? |