Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: MT Treasurer on October 07, 2017, 09:56:05 am



Title: FL-Saint Leo University: Scott +2
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 07, 2017, 09:56:05 am
35% Rick Scott (R)
33% Bill Nelson (D, inc.)
11% Someone else

21% Undecided

Link. (http://polls.saintleo.edu/saint-leo-u-poll-finds-a-scott-v-nelson-race-in-2018-for-senate-in-florida-would-be-tight/)

Caveat: The survey was conducted September 10-16, 2017, when Irma was getting a lot of media coverage. Also, St. Leo is a pretty bad pollster, way too many undecideds, etc.


Title: Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Scott +2
Post by: Fudotei on October 07, 2017, 10:04:31 am
11% for someone else? Is Rubio trying to run for the other Senate seat just to  with Bill Nelson?


Title: Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Scott +2
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on October 07, 2017, 11:45:26 am
#Undecidedmentum!


Title: Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Scott +2
Post by: Young Conservative on October 07, 2017, 12:51:17 pm
St. Leo is infamous, but this IS the second pollster to show results like this. Nelson is vulnerable this year for the first time since 2000 and Scott is increasingly popular because of his near perfect handling of hurricanes and the economy. Tilt D, but closer to Tossup than Lean.


Title: Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Scott +2
Post by: Ebsy on October 07, 2017, 05:05:37 pm
Senate polling a year out is notoriously inaccurate. Will need to wait until Scott actually announces he is running, etc, to see what the race is going to look like.


Title: Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Scott +2
Post by: krazen1211 on October 07, 2017, 05:51:51 pm
Great poll!


Title: Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Scott +2
Post by: superbudgie1582 on October 07, 2017, 06:34:53 pm
Great poll!

Actually Saint Leo is a pretty horrific pollster.


Title: Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Scott +2
Post by: The Saint on October 07, 2017, 07:10:00 pm
Great poll!

Actually Saint Leo is a pretty horrific pollster.

We have a lot of those here :)

FAU, St. Leo, and some other local ones are pretty bad.


Title: Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Scott +2
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 10, 2017, 09:20:44 pm
Between this and the majority Trump approval in that recent 50 state poll, I do think something is up in Florida.


Title: Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Scott +2
Post by: ❤️❤️❤️ on October 11, 2017, 01:06:34 pm
Between this and the majority Trump approval in that recent 50 state poll, I do think something is up in Florida.

That something is probably bad polling.


Title: Re: FL-Saint Leo University: Scott +2
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With Sanchez! on October 17, 2017, 06:58:15 pm
I don't like Rick Scott, and I have never voted for him.  I have always voted for his Democratic opponents.  I consider him the worst sort of Social Darwinist; the survival of the fittest philosophy with a blind eye to the head start he has.

That being said, Scott is, quietly, an extremely formidable politician.  He's never been in a situation where he has come out looking really bad, even when he's on an unpopular side of an issue.  He's philisophically consistent, and he has focused on the coherent theme of job creation through lower taxes and fewer regulations.  While he's been doing this, Florida's economy has been rebounding from its low points of the last decade.  Whether or not this is Scott's doing or not is questionable, but he's the guy who's been talking about job creation constantly, and it HAS been happening.  Even more importantly, the jobs that Florida is now creating are jobs that are more likely to help out the unemployed in Florida that are in need of work now. 

Scott's performance through Hurricane Irma was magnificent; he was THE LEADER, without being a show-off.  He EXUDED leadership in a positive way, winning over folks who haven't always been on his side.  He projected COMPETENCE at a time when such a projection was needed to minimize panic.  He was PROACTIVE, rather than reactive, and this minimized damage and unpredictability.  Scott has been willing to be unpopular over the years, but he's always been willing to lead, and folks in Florida have progressively come around to appreciate this.  Scott has been underwater in approval ratings for most of his career, but he's gotten his head above water recently, and just at the right time.  And Scott looks vigorous; Nelson once was vigorous, but he's going to be 76 when he runs, and he looks as if he had a bad job of plastic surgery.  (I LIKE Nelson, and would vote for him if the election were today, but Scott's image is much better than Nelson's right now, for a lot of reasons.)

Scott has baggage, and some (the Medicare fraud his company perpetuated) he's stuck with.  I do think Scott has lived down a lot of his early career negatives and gained a lot of grudging respect.  I think the poll is very much accurate.  Scott is a case of a politician that is peaking at the right time.