Talk Elections

Northam 53 (+2)
Gillespie 39 (-2)
Hyra 2


https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2493

At least we know they are not hearding.

Thank God for averages!

So Va is going to be interesting on a election night inst it?

Northam is likely up 5-6 points.

Likely R → Safe D

#Atlas

Someone's gonna look stupid in 2 or so weeks. Question is, is it Monmouth or Quinnipiac. My money's on Monmouth.

Monmouth and Quinnipiac actually play each other in basketball in December. Decide it on the court!

Of course, this poll is going to be labeled fake because it doesn't fit the Republican narrative.

Great Poll!

Lol this is an outliner northam in his internal polls is up but in the margin of error.
No republican or Democrat is winning Virginia by 14 points this election it’s going to be 3 points max for both Gillespie and northam.

N+14 isn’t going to happen, but G+1 likely won’t either. Just throw it all in the average.

So...where exactly is the race now? Some polls say Northam has gained. Some polls say that he is still where he was in August, with little change. And some polls see Gillespie gaining ground. Well, at least theres no chance of hearding...

48.72 to 48.31 but what I meant by that is it’s at most a 3 point race even that is being to nice to both sides.

Quinnipiac continues it's trend in VA as the outlier.  Average is about Northam +2-4 or around there.

The only safe prediction

Well now it’s around Northam +5/6

The difference between these polls is mostly what sample ends up being used. This was a D+10 sample. The R+1 sample the other day was R+2 sample.

The consistency between these polls is Northam being up among independents. He was down among independents a few months ago.

VA 2013 was D+5
VA 2014 was D+0
VA 2016 was D+7

I'm not sure what the turnout will be in 2016, but I'd imagine it'd be at least D+3 in a Trump off-year. And if Gillepsie is losing independents, that is a bad sign.

While there's no scenario where Northam wins by 14 points, the trends in this poll are useful. Their last poll showed Northam +10, and this represents a gain from that, casting doubt on Monmouth's finding that things are getting better than Gillespie. Also this can't be good for Gillespie:


Also this:

I do not believe that Quinnipiac is a reliable pollster. In the 2016 election, it reported that IA was tied.

Well, that's a relief. For a modest Northam lead you'd expect outliers like this and Monmouth.

How hilarious would it be though if this and the WaPo poll actually were accurate, and Northam ended up winning by more than Murphy.

If Northam wins by double digits, the Democrats would easily take the HoD.

Outlier. Just like the Gillipsie +1 poll. I think the election will end up 50-45% for Northam, possibly 49-44%.

Mark my words, as someone who lives in Virginia and NOVA particularly: Northam is probably going to win, but by no more than 6-8% at the most. My prediction right now would be Northam +3.5 in fact.

Neither candidate is going to win by a double digit margin, that is absurd.

Seeing a lot of Republican lawn signs?

I've seen a lot of Northam lawn signs, but keep in mind I live in a liberal area.

I think it depends a lot on what's driving the win. If it's crossover voting it would do less harm downballot to the GOP but if it's because of turnout differential it'd be a bloodbath.

Unlikely, but as others have said, this seems about as out of line as the Monmouth poll. My current guess is Northam by 6, which would mean both Monmouth and Quinnipiac will have egg on their face.