Talk Elections

With the LDP winning the election in a resounding fashion, it is time to see what the Fourth Abe Cabinet does while in power for the next four years, and whether Shinzo Abe will indeed be at the helm for all of it.

Abe's uncertain grip on power

https://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Michael-Cucek/Abe-s-uncertain-grip-on-power?utm_content=buffer023cd&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Post election Yomiuri poll of party support

LDP     43 (+10) - standard post election, will decline over time
KP        4 (+1)
JRP       2(+1)
HP        5 (-3)
CDP     14 (+10)
SDP       1 (nc)
JCP       3 (nc)

Has there been any chatter or developments on the future of the opposition?

I think the opposition (or at least the left-opposition in the form of the CDP) is actually probably best served by staying divided; one of the big problems for the DPJ was always that its coalition was too fractious, such that it was unable to set forth what it stood for other than opposition to the LDP, which was never enough except when the LDP was catastrophically unpopular (and then led to three years of divided and feckless governance). A more ideologically unified opposition party stands to do better and carve out its own niche.

Would it though? It's not like the Japanese Socialist Party did much better for forty years before reforming into the DJP.

The JSP was much more left-wing than the CDP is, and subject to stronger competition on the left by the JCP. And the JSP also was opposing the LDP in a period of almost continuous, rapid economic growth - it was always going to be difficult for an opposition party to make headway in good economic times.

And the successor to the JSP is the SDP, not the CDP (or the DPJ before it).

CDP chief Yukio Edano balks at merging with other parties.
 (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/24/national/politics-diplomacy/cdp-chief-yukio-edano-balks-merging-parties)

Probably a smart move, though I won't be surprised if they change their stance on ex-DP Councillors.

Koike will not be resigning:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/25/national/politics-diplomacy/koike-says-wont-resign-kibo-no-head-poor-election-showing/#.WfBrCMmpWUk

Also, we have some extremely sore losers in Aichi's 7th district:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/25/national/politics-diplomacy/aichi-voting-office-overwhelmed-calls-right-wing-campaign-alleges-foul-play-re-election-shiori-yamao/#.WfBrJ8mpWUk

Post election bounce puts Abe Cabinet approval above water again

()

It seems everyone is waiting on
a) Will Koike quit HP leadership and who will be in the HP leadership
b) What are the various heavyweight ex-DP MPs are going to do
c) What will the DP Upper House MPs going to do

All three will affect each other.  But no one is making any moves until there is some clarity on any of the issues above.

Asahi post election poll has

Abe Cabinet approval 42(+2)/39(-1)

Party support

LDP  39
KP     4
JRP    2
HP     3
CDP  17
SDP   1
JCP    3

As I have already posted, Koike has already stated that she will NOT step down.

I know. But that could change any time.  Koike said as HP was being formed that she will NOT be the leader.  Then out of nowhere she came out and surprised her own people saying that she will lead HP.

So my understanding is that even though LDP-KP has the 2/3 majority it needs in both houses to pass its constitutional amendments through the Diet, it will still need to pass in a popular referendum. Have there been opinion polls on this? Are the people still generally pacifist despite consistently delivering supermajorities to revisionist parties? How would the referendum campaign shake out once it actually began? Would turnout be higher than the rather low GE turnout? Which sides would prefer higher/lower turnout?

Komeito isn't really in favor of removing pacifism from the constitution and has dragged its feet and stalled whenever the issue came up in the past. I believe Komeito's reluctance to amend the constitution is the main reason it still hasn't happened, even though Abe has tried several times and had his super-majority before now. I'd think that they'll do the same thing this time around and stall until public pressure forces Abe to back down again.

Polling is all over the place but I suspect it will be negative.  The way things work is the more Abe is for  something public opinion usually turns against it.   Also KP is not really on board. I am beginning to think nothing will happen on this.  Abe just wants the issue and will never take the risk of trying and getting totally humiliated if and when not all of LDP or KP is on board or is beaten badly in a referendum.   I think Abe's goal is to stay PM until 2021.  All this Constitutional change is a bunch of baloney.   

Asahi post-election poll on Constitutional change on Clause 9.  For/Against 36/45.  I am sure if you change the wording on how it will change in theory you can get a majority for.  But it really depends.


()

Clause 9 is the one renouncing war of course.

Japan's deputy PM says party won election 'thanks to North Korea'
Friday, October 27, 2017 01:38 AM
Tokyo (DPA) -- Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso on Friday tried to explain comments he had made attributing his party's election victory to North Korea.
"It's the government that decides how to address the series of threats from North Korea, so I believe the Japanese people chose the government or the combination of political parties that can best respond" to the matter, Aso told reporters on Friday. Aso, who also serves as finance minister, said on Thursday the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) resounding victory in Sunday's general election was "clearly partly thanks to North Korea."
Aso's remarks were "outrageous," said Akira Nagatsuma, a senior lawmaker of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party. They suggested Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition "exploited" the North Korean nuclear threat for political gain. Abe's LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito Party won a major victory in Sunday's election for the powerful lower house. In August, Aso appeared to defend Adolf Hitler's motive for the genocide of Jews during World War II.
"Hitler, who killed millions of people, is no good even if his motive was right," Aso told lawmakers then.

I'm surprised that no one has defected to another party yet. Unless it isn't being reported on.

Party of Hope to forgo immediately naming Diet leader
Friday, October 27, 2017 03:22 AM
TOKYO, Oct. 27 Kyodo
The opposition Party of Hope, led by Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike from outside the Diet, is planning not to pick a leader for its parliamentary operations until after the upcoming special Diet session starting Nov. 1, sources close to the party said Friday.
The special session is set to run for only about a week to take care of procedures following Sunday's House of Representatives election in which the Party of Hope performed poorly while the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe maintained a two-thirds majority.
The party absorbed the conservative wing of the collapsing Democratic Party ahead of the election, but ended up gaining fewer seats than the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which was formed to take on the liberal Democratic Party members who could not or would not join the Party of Hope.
Koike's party will hold a meeting of its lawmakers Friday afternoon to plan its next steps. She apologized to party members Wednesday for the party's disappointing performance in the election but insisted she wants to remain its leader.
She is likely to appoint former Democratic Party Secretary General Atsushi Oshima as both secretary general and policy chief, and make former Democratic Party member Hirofumi Ryu chief of Diet affairs, the sources said.
In the Diet vote for prime minister set for Nov. 1, the party is considering voting for former Democratic Party member Motohisa Furukawa in light of his relatively long career in parliament and previous Cabinet experience, the sources said.
Separately Friday, the leader of the still-extant Democratic Party said he will step down as soon as the rest of the party decides what to do about its regional branches and its remaining lawmakers in the House of Councillors.
Seiji Maehara made the remark at the outset of a meeting of the party's upper house members and those in the lower house who ran as independents in Sunday's election, having refrained from joining either the CDPJ or the Party of Hope.
"I am painfully aware of my responsibility. I will resign after determining a certain direction (for the party)," Maehara said.
In the meeting, the lawmakers are expected to deliver their verdict on Maehara's decision to attempt to essentially merge the Democratic Party with the Party of Hope after the House of Representatives was dissolved on Sept. 28.
Maehara, who had at that point been in charge of the party for less than a month, repeatedly urged Koike to run in the election so she could lead the party in the Diet.
But Koike refused either to run or to take on all of the Democratic Party's candidates, prompting the emergence of the CDPJ. The CDPJ ended up taking 55 seats to the Party of Hope's 50, both dwarfed by Abe's Liberal Democratic Party with 284 seats.

Me too.  I guses everyone is looking at what the Upper House DP MPs will do and who Koike puts in charge of HP.   If In the end Koike steps down or takes a nominal leadership of HP the the old DP Right will just take over HP completely and then go from there to figure out what to do next (like if HP will get an alliance with CDP and/or JRP)   What is also suprising is how few ex-DP independent MP have moved.  I guess they are wait and see as well. 

Correct.  I am sure getting rid of Clause 9 will not pass the diet or a referendum. A version that could but seems less and less likely is to update Clause 9 saying Self Defense Force exists and is legal.   

In other news...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/27/japanese-student-sues-over-schools-order-to-dye-hair-black (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/27/japanese-student-sues-over-schools-order-to-dye-hair-black)


Do any local experts know if this 18 year-old girl has a case?

It seems there are pressure for on Osaka governor 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) to resign as JRP leader given the JRP poor performance, especially in the Osaka district seats.

I can understand uniform restrictions, but dyeing hair within a natural range? It's not like it's green or anything.

I have no idea what the laws in Japan would say about this.  It would seem to me if the school is a private school then they should be able to have whatever rules they want.  The child can always choose not to attend and attend another school (public or private) instead.

Latest NTV poll (change on Sept)

Abe approval/disapproval 41.7(-0.4)/44.2(+3.2)

Party support
LDP    36.5 (-1.4）
KP    　4.7 (+0.8）
JRP  　3.1 (+1.8）
HP   　 4.2 (new)
DP   　0.7 (-7.8）
CDP　13.8 (new）
JCP    4.5 (+1.3）

No post-election victory bounce for Abe/LDP

Was a bounce expected though?

Usually after an election victory the cabinet and ruling party (which is LDP most of the time anyway) gets a bounce in support.  In some polls this is the case and in other not.  I think there was a bounce that is already wearing off after a week.  We are back to a mode where Abe popular support is not high even as the opposition in is a total mess and cannot take advantage of it.   

Abe approval curve.  Still above water for now
()


Party support.  Purple is LDP.  CDP is Deep Blue.  Grey is no party.
CDP support at the highest level of any non-LDP party since 2012.
()

DP leader Maehara resigned to take  responsibility for the disarray following a failed merger with HP.  He will join HP. 

Ex-DP leader 岡田 克也(Okada Katsuya) who resigned in 2016 after DP's defeat in the 2016 Upper House elections will form a group of ex-DP independent MP.

How much control does Toru Hashimoto have of JRP?

Hard to say.  I think last year I would say a lot.  But this year it seems Hashimoto has mostly disappeared and most likely have given up on the JRP project as a way to capture national power. It would not surprise me for him to re-appear to join the national LDP since his relationship with Abe has always been positive. 

One of the reasons for the lack of defections to CDP from HP is that CDP leader 枝野 幸男(Edano Yukio), just like Koike before the election, seems to be prioritizing ideological purity over party growth. If seems Edano and Koike is learning the wrong lessons on why DPJ/DP failed.  They seems to think that DPJ/DP could not get their support up is due the ideological diversity of the party.  It seems to me that the ideological diversity in the LDP is just as great if not greater than DPJ/DP.  The real reason why DPJ/DP could not take off post-2012 is because DPJ was seen as incompetent after its 2009-2012 experience.   

I do agree  that the opposition cannot M&A its way back to victory and that it will take a few election cycles to beat LDP.  It seems to me the way to do it is not ideological purity but success at the prefecture government level.   I think CDP and HP should form an alliance and together work to do well in the 2019 prefecture level elections.  The resulting CDP-HP clout at the local level can demonstrate that they are parties that can rule and not just win elections.

One of the 3 JRP winners in district seats in Osaka resigned from the party.  JRP at the national level might be falling apart even as it did slightly better than feared at the PR section.

to be fair, I would be highly sceptical of letting people like Ozawa on board. He played an outright malicious role in the DJP era, and the few benefits of having him around have diminished as he has become ever less significant.

I think this fundamentally misunderstands what the appeal of the opposition is and why people vote for opposition candidates. The opposition parties have to stand for something to get people to vote for them. They can stand for *different* things (i.e., the opposition parties don't have to present a cross-party ideologically unified front), although tactically this becomes harder to the extent they have electoral alliances in an FPTP system. But they have to stand for something. They can't just be an inferior version of the LDP, which is what an ideologically diverse, cobbled together opposition party is. The inferior version of the LDP might be able to win on the rare occasions when the LDP totally discredits itself (see 2009), but they can't hold on to power because they don't give anyone a reason to continue to support them once the unpopularity of the LDP has had time to wear off.

The important thing is that the opposition parties can never beat the LDP at its own game. The opposition parties will never be able to be all things to all people and will never be able to be the establishment or default choice (at least, not until they've won a second government term in a row). It is therefore irrelevant that the LDP has a great deal of internal ideological diversity (though less internal diversity, I think, than you are crediting it for, at least nowadays).

In fact, internal ideological diversity is a significant weakness for both the LDP and the opposition alike since it lends itself to disarray and ineffective governance. However, there is a distinct double-standard where the opposition parties are held to much higher standards of competence than the LDP, primarily because voters vote for the opposition for essentially optimistic reasons (thinking the country can be better than it is) but vote for the LDP for essentially pessimistic reasons (thinking what they know is the safest choice), so opposition voters have higher expectations of their politicians. The LDP therefore overcomes the disadvantage of ideological diversity causing disarray by being the low-expectations party, while the disarray that results from ideological diversity serves only to discredit the opposition parties.

Its is hard to argue against your position.  In this particular case the nature of the election system puts a premium on candidates quality.  If this election was fought on ideological grounds you can argue LDP-KP actually lost the election.  If we had the German election system with a 176 member D'Hondt PR district with a 5% threshold then LDP-KP would have been reduced to 82 out of 176 seats and Abe would be scrambling around to form a Grand coalition of LDP-HP or its Jamaica coalition of LDP-KP-JRP to form a government.  But the nature of the FPTP district seats and the voting pattern of electorate shows that candidate quality is key.

To have good quality candidates one needs a farm league of prefecture and city level politicians where issues that CDP seems to be running such as  Constitution and national security matters little.  For CDP to put ideological litmus tests  on these issues seems as foolish as Koike's reverse litmus test and will prevent the growth of CDP at the local level.  If they persist on this then they will just become a more moderate version of JCP  which would have dedicated core of supporters but little prospect of coming to power.

It's important to have good candidates who are also cohesive with the party message. CDP can't afford to have even local government candidates who bang on about how Japan should have the ability to wage war. Sure, those issues aren't especially important at the local government level, but they embarrass the party and harm the party's image on a national stage. It's not like there is a dearth of potential skilled politicians who are dovish.

Clearly, voters are responding to the CDP, or else it wouldn't be polling higher than any opposition party since 2009. Right after an election is a bad time to peak, of course, but the CDP has to hope that they can continue to carry forward the image of being something different - a party that actually stands for something - through the next election. Or else what's the point?

A slew of polls has Abe's post election bounce getting his approval ratings to around the high 40s

()

Koike resigns as head of HP.  玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) who was elected as joint HP leader awhile ago will now be the sole leader of HP.  The entire HP caucus with the exception of few MPs are all former DP members with an ex-DP leader as it s head.

So the original DP has now split into 3.  Left DP (DCP), Right DP (HP), and Upper House DP (DP).  Plus a bloc of ex-DP independents.  Most of the ex-DP independents will join a party (most likely one of HP CDP or DP) by December since the party fund allocation will be based on the number of MPs so each one of these parties will have an incentive to get these ex-DP independents to join.   

Over time most likely we will see these 3 parties either merge or form an alliance.  With Koike moving into the background I suspect the HP-JRP-TCJ alliance will dissolve.

If HP stays on as Conservative Center-Right opposition that would cut of any revival attempts of JRP.  The JRP has been losing vote share since 2012 and it seems that will continue.

PR vote of JRP

2012   20.4%
2013   11.9%
2014   15.7%  (after merging with most of YP in the form of YP splinter UP)
2016    9.2%  (after most ex-DP and ex-UP members left to merge with DPJ to form DP)
2017    6.1%

As long as HP in some form is around for 2019 Upper House elections JRP would most likely fall to 2%-3% with LDP gaining most of the vote lost by JRP and others going to HP.  I suspect JRP will devolve into an Osaka regional party which is strong at the regional level but will become weaker for national elections even in Osaka.

Can't help but find hilarious how things turned for Koike given the level of hype some months (even weeks) ago.

What is funny is I saw this coming.  I wrote back in July how she can make it to the top. The first point I made was "She has to avoid the Hashimoto trap of trying to go into national politics too early."  She went on to make that mistake.  It seems her governorship of Tokyo is now most likely ruined as well.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/30/asia/japan-emperor-akihito-abdication-intl/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/30/asia/japan-emperor-akihito-abdication-intl/index.html)


This is huge news. Japan has only had two emperors since World War Two (Hirohito and Akihito).

A look ahead at 2019 Upper House elections.  It is not clear what sort of alliances will be made between HP CDP JCP and JRP.  I can see tactical alliances between HP-CDP, HP-JRP, and CDP-JCP. Single districts are too hard to know before we know what the alliances are.  But for multi-member districts most likely it will be a free for all.  For now I think it will look like:

東京(Tokyo) - 6 seats - LDP KP JCP CDP each with a seat.  HP JRP LP (far Left incumbent) LDP battle for the last 2.  LDP and HP more likely to win.
神奈川(Kanagawa) - 4 seats - LDP HP each with a seat.  KP CDP JCP LDP battle for the last 2. KP and CDP more likely to win.
大阪(Osaka) - 4 seats - LDP KP JRP each with a seat. JRP JCP HP CDP battle for the last 1. JCP more likely to win.
愛知(Aichi) - 4 seats - LDP KP each with a seat.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP), ex-YP independent, JCP battle for the last 2.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) and JCP more likely to win.
北海道(Hokkaido) - 3 seat - LDP CDP each with a seat.  LDP CDP HP JCP NPD battle for the last 1. LDP more likely to win.
埼玉(Saitama) -3 seats - LDP CDP each with a seat.  KP HP JCP battle for the last 1.  KP more likely to win.
千葉(Chiba) - 3 seats - LDP to win 2 seats.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP), JCP to battle for the last 1.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) more likely to win.
兵庫(Hyōgo) - 3 seats - LDP KP each with a seat.  JRP HP CDP JCP battle for the last 1.  JRP more likely to win.
福岡(Fukuoka) - 3 seats - LDP KP (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) with a seat each.  JCP also running but most likely will not win.
茨城(Ibaraki) - 2 seats - LDP with a seat. (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) LDP JCP battle for the last 1.   (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) most likely to win.
静岡(Shizuoka) - 2 seats - LDP (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) with a seat each.  JCP also running but most likely will not win.
京都(Kyoto) - 2 seats - LDP with a seat.  HP CDP JCP battle for the last 1.  JCP most likely to win.
広島(Hiroshima) - 2 seat - LDP with a seat.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) JCP JRP battle for the last 1.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) most likely to win.

Kyodo Abe approval/disapproval  47.2(-2.3)/40.4(+2.1)

Party support

LDP　　  37.1（-1.8）
KP  　　   2.7（-1.3）
JRP 　　   2.2（-0.5）
HP  　　   3.2（-2.5）
LP  　　   0.3（-0.1）
DP  　　   1.8（+0.9）
CDP       12.5（-3.6）
SDP        1.1（+0.6）
JCP         3.1（±0.0）

Abe approval curve which surged as a result of election victory stabilizing and falling a bit

()

富山県(Toyama) poll by local newspaper on Constitutional reform has 41.1 for an 35.3 against.

()

by demographics has

()

Which has men being for Constitutional change 49.5 vs 34.0 against and women being for 33.5 vs 36.4.  By age the youth seems to be opposed while the middle age demographics seems to be for.

 富山県(Toyama) has a fairly high pro-LDP lean so the fact that overall pro-Constitutional reform support is greater than opposition is not surprising.  

In an early October poll it has Abe cabinet support in 富山県(Toyama) at 47% which is the number 2 prefecture (first is 山口(Yamaguchi) where Abe is from.)
()

What is surprising are that the youth tends to be the age demographic most against  Constitutional change but at the same time the youth tends to be the most pro-LDP bloc.  Most likely explanation is the youth is attracted LDP as the party with a vision for economic revival and are likely to vote for LDP based on that vision even as it opposes LDP on non-economic policy issues.  

There seems to be talks between HP and DP to form a joint caucus in both houses which could be a prelude to a merger.  It seems this is more driven by the low poll ratings for both parties that if not reversed would lead to mass defections to CDP and/or political oblivion next election.  The hope is the news generated by a possible future merger might lead to positive political coverage in the news and as a result higher poll ratings for both parties and most likely the unified party.

The poll ratings for HP seems to be around 2%-3% range.

()

the CDP is doing quite well for an opposition party in Japan. Why would they want to merge with a falling center-right party? It just doesn't seem logical.

Well. that is not what the talks are about.  The talks are between DP and HP, not CDP and HP.  DP still exists as a Upper House only party and at the prefecture level.  There have been some recent trickle of defections from DP members at the prefecture level to CDP.  These merger talks between HP and DP are away to stop that trend and be able to form pre-elections alliances with CDP on a more equal footing. 

Presumably at least some of the Upper House DP members would prefer CDP to HP - wouldn't this cause some further defections from DP at the Upper House level?

Correct.  But while some of those defections will be for ideological reasons (DP Upper House caucus tends to be more left wing than the DP Lower House caucus) the main reasons are for prospects of winning re-election.  And December is the time to defect as the political party subsidies from the government which are determined by the number of MPs are calculated and doled out in Jan.  So DP and HP figure if they can create a unified party that can poll better then most would be CDP defectors  will just stay put.   Right now CDP which seems to prioritize ideological consistency is not actively poaching but that could change.

It is totally possible that LDP KP alliance might dissolve in the next year or two over Constitutional reform and other policy differences so the next election might be a set of fragmented blocs which then would fuse into an alliance on a temporary basis for the election before breaking up again

LDP+PJK
KP
HP Hard Right+JRP
HP+DP
CDP+SDP+LP
JCP

Struggling opposition Democratic Party may disband, form new party
Monday, December 11, 2017 12:48 PM
TOKYO, Dec. 12 Kyodo
Opposition Democratic Party leader Kohei Otsuka is considering disbanding his party and forming a new one, a source close to the matter said Monday.
Otsuka may present his proposal at a party meeting Tuesday, but it is not clear which lawmakers would join a new party.
House of Councillors member Otsuka replaced Seiji Maehara as party leader following the Oct. 22 lower house election.
Maehara had effectively disbanded the party to have all of its lower house members run as candidates for Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike's Party of Hope.
Some of the members who did not join the Party of Hope formed the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which become the leading opposition force in the lower house.

LDP support mostly stabilized and back to level somewhat level early 2017 levels.
()


CDP support (Blue) falling down to around 10% as the intensity of the election wears off.  Meanwhile HP support (Red) has mostly collapsed to JRP and even DP levels.
()

Looks like ex-DP leader Renho will most likely join CDP.   If so then DP to CDP defections  will accelerate to the point where there is nothing for HP to merge with.   

Abe cabinet approval rating curve holding steady  in the high 40s.

()

Same for party support.  LDP support in the mid 30s, CDP around 10% (which is what DPJ/DP would get in the 2013-2016 period) and both DP and HP both in the low single digits.

()

Just looking at the polls and projecting out to 2019 my guess on the PR section for the 2019 Upper House elections (assuming DP merges into HP) will be something like

LDP  33.5%   17
KP    12.5%    6
PJK    0.5%     0
JRP    5.0%     2
HP    10.5%    5
CDP  25.0%  13
LP      1.5%    0
SDP   2.0%    1
JCP    8.5%    4

back in 2016 it was

LDP  35.9%   19
KP    13.5%    7
PJK    1.3%     0
NPR   1.0%     0   -> gone, most votes most likely went to LDP or JRP
JRP    9.2%     4
DP    21.0%  11
VPA    0.8%    0  -> gone, most vote most likely went to CDP or JCP
LP      1.9%    1
SDP   2.7%    1
JCP   10.7%   5

Go2senkyo poll on Constitutional revision and Abe

Pro-Constitutional reform      38.5%
Against Constitutional reform 42.0%
()


LDP voters back Constitutional reform 67.7 to 13.2
Non-Aligned voters oppose  Constitutional reform 48.2 to 23.5
()


On Abe getting a third term as LDP President.  28.1% for and 54.2% against.
()

Sankei came out with an "analysis" of possible results of the 2019 Upper House elections using the 2017 PR vote share.  It focused on the 1- member districts pointing out that the winner of the 1- seat districts tend to win the election
()

What Sankei did was for 1- seats to add up the PR vote share of CDP HP SDP JCP and JRP and compared it to the LDP KP vote share.   It assumes that there will be a all opposition candidate to take on LDP in the 1- member districts.  It concluded that out of the 32 1- districts LDP would come out ahead in 15 seats and the opposition will come out ahead in 15.    It also looked at the 3- member districts and point out that the CDP HP SDP JCP vote share exceeds LDP KP in 3 prefectures (namely 北海道(Hokkaido) 埼玉(Saitama) and 千葉(Chiba)) where the LDP might be vulnerable to winning only 1 of the 3 seats.

Overall I found these projections as to optimistic for the opposition.  For 1- member district  the PR vote share projection  should really be LDP + KP + JRP/2 vs HP + CDP + SDP + JCP + JRP/2 where the JRP PR voter will most likely split their vote.  For multi-member districts we have to assume JCP will run so it will be LDP+KP vs HP + CDP + SDP vs JCP vs JRP (or NPD).

If we do it my way then the 2019 projected result for 1- district would be LDP 21 Opposition 11 which is same as 2016.  Using this model we find that in 2019 LDP flips (relative to 2016)  青森(Aomori) [very likely as the 2016 opposition win was fairly unusual] and 宮城(Miyagi) [much less likely as there might be a ex-YP turned LDP rebel in the fray) while the opposition would flip (relative to 2016) 栃木(Tochigi) [very unlikely as part of the HP PR vote here are because of Watanabe joining HP and that vote will go back to LDP in the district vote] and 岐阜(Gifu) [fairly unlikely since LDP incumbent is pretty strong].

As for 3- member districts if we assume that NPD runs separately then perhaps the opposition can replicate its 2 to 1 victory over LDP in 北海道(Hokkaido).  Everywhere else it will be LDP-KP 2 Opposition 1 because JCP will run separately.

In 兵庫(Hyōgo) and 大阪(Osaka) the decline of JPR an JCP means that the non-JCP opposition will capture a seat each from JRP relative to 2016.  Also in 神奈川(Kanagawa) the decline of JCP will mean that JCP will not split the vote so it will be LDP-KP 2 opposition 2 and not LDP-KP 3 opposition 1.

So a 2017 PR only projection would yield a projection for 2019 Upper House elections of, out of 73 district seats, LDP-KP 43 Non-JCP opposition 28 JRP 1 JCP 1.  In 2016 it was LDP-KP 44 Non-JCP opposition 25 JRP 3 JCP 1. So 2019 most likely will be a replication of 2016 results if the 2017 Lower House PR votes share are a indicating of voting intentions. Of course it assumes that the HP DP JCP SDP JCP and get together in the 1- member seats and non-JCP non-JRP opposition can work reasonably well enough in multi member districts.

Looks like DP-HP merger talks are off.  They could not agree on the what to do with the new 2015 Security legislation.  DP insist that they are unconstitutional and  must be repealed while HP says they are problematic but not to the point of being unconstitutional.  Most likely result of this is the DP Left in the Upper Hose will over time defect to DCP. 

Latest round of polls show cabinet support and party support mostly holding steady last couple of months

()

()

Japan's Party of Hope is Said to Urge Koike to Leave: Kyodo
Thursday, January 25, 2018 06:31 PM
By Shoko Oda

(Bloomberg) --
Japan’s Party of Hope plans to urge its founder Yuriko Koike, also the governor of Tokyo, to leave the party, Kyodo reports, citing unidentified party executives.

Party also considering internal split to create new parties; will consider changing party name

Wow. I guess now HP will finally fall apart after a couple of months of poor polling.   The Right elements of HP could form a new party or join DP and the more Center elements might join CDP if CDP will take them. 

Hopefully not.

But yes, get f**ked HP. :D

It seems the main conflict in HP stems from the "original problem" of how HP was formed.  Namely the 2015 security legislation.  One of the main reasons why CDP was even formed was because Koike insisted that all DP->HP defectors must endorse the 2015 security law which DP objected to in 2015 as unconstitutional.  Those did not want to accept this formed CDP. 

After the 2017 elections and Koike stepped down the election for the new head of HP had was a battle between the pro- and anti- Koike factions (again divided on the topic of the 2015 new security law) with the pro-Koike faction candidate 玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) winning.

Tamaki then saw that given the low ratings HP's only in future elections are to form an alliance with DP and likely DCP and/or merge with DP.  The HP-DP talks broke down over disagreements over the HP and DP positions in the 2015 security legislation.  Seeing HP party headed toward doom in the next election Tamaki decided to switch positions and want HP to take on a anti-2015 security legislation position in order to help with DP-HP merger or alliance as well as a possible alliance with DCP.   To do that Koike has to go and he is pushing for Koike  to leave and if need so a handful of true believers in the hawkish position in HP.  Not clear where this is going to go and if the HP caucus will back Tamaki and even if it does how many security hawks will defect to form another party or to even join JRP or LDP.

Mayor election for 名護市(Nago) was yesterday.  This is relevant because this is the city that the Japan-USA government plan to move the based to. 

Anti-Base incumbant which was backed by DP-CDP-SDP-OMSP-JCP was defeated by a LDP-KP-JRP backed candidate 54.6%-45.4%.  This might signal the possible defeat of the anti-base Okinawa governor 翁長 雄志(Onaga Takeshi) in the upcoming elections later this year.  The pro-base LDP-KP-JRP candidate avoided the base issue but talked about the various central government subsidies that will help the local economy.  I suspect that is how the LDP will take down Onaga later this year: Run on subsides for Okinawa to get the voters to overlook the USA base. 

What is interesting about the mayor election for 名護市(Nago) is that exit polls show the anti-base incumbent won with a 10% margin but ended up losing by a 9% margin.  I guess the "socially acceptable" position in Okinawa is now anti-based by many votes voted for more subsidies which means the LDP-KP-JRP pro-base candidate.
()

松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) who has a YP and PFG background announced that he and 4 other HP MPs (all with Far Right Hawk positions) were going to quit HP and form a new party in light of HP attempts to form a 3 way CDP-DP-HP alliance. 

Even though it is late this is pretty much my prediction right before the 2017 election.


Pretty much the 4 of the 5 MPs which are leaving have PFG and/or YP background.  One is a neophyte who only won 14.1% of the vote in his seat but since HP ran so little candidates Kinki PR section he was elected on the PR slate.    All the rest of HP MPs were members of DP right before HP was formed. 

So with the Hawk Right wing of HP leaving and Koike totally marginalized with hints that she should leave HP, HP is now pretty much the DP Right of Sept 2017 which now is looking to form an alliance with DP (Upper House wing of Sept 2017 DP), and CDP (Left DP of Sept 2017 DP.)

Main problem for this CDP-DP-HP alliance if it gets formed in 2019 Upper House elections is how it can get JCP not to run in single member seats.  If they can pull that off then 2019 Upper House elections could be competitive.   

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2136664/japans-finance-ministry-admit-altering-documents-cut-price-land


https://www.yahoo.com/news/japan-official-linked-abe-cronyism-row-found-dead-070623259.html



Now blow for Abe.  Cabinet approval ratings set to fall now.  Unclear how much low damage this still do to Abe.  Most likely it will not be large unless there is evidence Abe was personally involved which there is not and I doubt any will surface.

Abe approval heading down on revival of Osaka school land sale scandal
()
 




LDP party support (Pink) falling a bit
()

It seems the Finance Ministry altering documents on the Moritomo Gakuen school removed references to Abe's wife and couple of other LDP ministers.  This is not looking good.  For Abe to have a chance at winning the Sept 2018 LDP Prez election for an unprecedented third term, he has to stop scandal at a few rotten apples in Finance Ministry who acted without knowledge or support of Finance Minister and DPM Taro Aso.  The Finance Ministry bureaucrat that seems to have committed suicide seems like a good fall guy for all this.  Abe just has to hope that the LDP, opposition parties, and the public buys the story.     

Abe's main enemy in all this is within the LDP.  Anti-Abe forces within LDP which had been dormant since the Oct 2017 LDP election victory is on the move again making threatening noises about  need for maximum transparency and "going as deep as we need to in the investigation" in order to restore trust in the LDP.  The various LDP landslides in 2012-2017 is now working against Abe.  The opposition is in such bad shape that the anti-Abe LDP factions now does not feel the need to circle wagons around Abe since a scandal that takes down Abe just means they take over without fear that the Opposition will gain that much electorally from this. 

Easy solution to that problem: CDP shouldn't entertain such an alliance, and instead come to some agreement with the JCP.

The return of the Moritomo Gakuen  scandal has Abe stuck.  One way out is to get DPM (and ex-PM) and Minister of Fiance 麻生 太郎(Asō Tarō) to resign over the doctored documents.  But Aso controls his own LDP faction and if Abe loses Aso's support he could be in  trouble in the Sept 2018 LDP Prez elections.  Also now recent polls now has Abe's rival within LDP 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru) is closing in on Abe in terms of popular support for PM.  Back in July 2017 when Abe was last on the ropes Ishiba was ahead for a while.  Now Ishiba is back to neck-to-neck with Abe 28.6% vs 30.0%

()

Well the risk there is HP then runs in single member FPTP districts in alliance with JRP and splits the anti-LDP vote.

Aso is such a deadweight on Abe. You'd think in a normal country he would be dropped after the third time he has to walk back "ACTUALLY HITLER WAS KEWL" statements...

ROC Media house UDN had a special about JCP.  It had some interesting pictures on how JCP have evolved over the years, especially JCP of pre-WWII and JCP today. 

This is a good contrast between pre-WWI JCP and JCP of today
()

Pre-WWII JCP posters
()

JCP ads of today
()

Abe cabinet approval rating in free-fall again as it goes under water under pressure of the revival of the Moritomo Gakuen scandal.  Abe pretty much lost all the ground he gained by his Nov 2017 election victory.  He is now most likely worse than even odds of winning the Sep 2018 LDP Prez election.

()

Of course one still have to wait a month or two to see what rabbits Abe pulls out of his hat.  He has been "doomed" before in Summer of 2015 and Summer 2017 and both times managed to come back.

NTV poll on support for LDP Prez election in Sept 2018

(1) 安倍晋三(Abe)                       14.1%
(2) 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)          24.0%  (leader of Ishiba faction)
(3) 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)          7.0%  (leader of Kishida faction)
(4) 小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō)  21.2 %  (no faction, aligned with Hosoda faction)
(5) 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)               3.5 %  (member of Aso faction)
(6) 野田聖子(Noda Seiko)             4.2 %

If Abe were to fall apart most likely 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) will win.  小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō) does not have enough seniority to win within LDP MPs at this time despite his popularity. 

http://www.asahi.com/politics/yoron/

Has Asahi historical data on Cabinet approval and also has it broken by gender and age groups.  This time Abe Cabinet approval is down to a record low 31/48.  There is a gender gap of around 13%.  This most recent drop in Abe cabinet approval seems to have erased most of the age gap as approval for age 29 and below fell 20% as other age group tend to fell around 8%-12% range.

Party support curve.  LDP takes a small hit but nothing massive.

()

Using the approval curve for Abe Cabinet Aoki index is around 73 (39+34).  Back in Late July Aoki Index fell to 64 (33+31). Around late October 2017 when Abe won the general election the Aoki index was around 80 (43+37).  If Abe can keep it Aoki index above 60 he should be safe for now although he would be in grave danger in Sept 2018 LDP Prez race.  If his Aoki index were to fall below 60 then there will be moves with LDP to get rid of him ASAP.

It seems that compared to historical opposition approval, CDP seems to be holding up pretty well compared to the old Democratic parties.

Correct.  The last time DPJ was able to sustain this level of support was in the Summer of 2015 when Abe was in a bad patch.  It did not last that long.  CDP seems to be generating a lot of support (relative to post-2012 DPJ and DP) without having LDP/Abe being in trouble.  On the flip side, when support for LDP does fall it does not seem to add to CDP support.  So the target electorate of CDP is much further away from LDP than in the 2012-2017 period with DPJ/DP relative to LDP.

NTV polling history of Abe Cabinet support/opposition has a breakdown of reasons for opposition
()

The dark purple is "I do not trust PM Abe" which has surged in summer of 2017 and stayed there.  It is at a all time high.

As for reasons to support Abe Cabinet
()

"I trust PM Abe' which is dark brown which was never that high has fallen to low single digits.  As always "There is no one else"(medium yellow) is the largest reasons for support for Abe Cabinet.

More polls (mostly those with LDP lean) came in that were not that bad for Abe Cabinet in absolute terms but in terms of change from previous poll of said pollsters were significant and the Abe cabinet approval curve now approaching Summer of 2017 levels.
()

His best hope now is for North Korea to start rattling its nuclear saber again, producing that rally-'round-the-flag effect that saved him last time. 

Correct.  Trump meeting with DPRK's Kim also uncut Abe at home showing him up as out of sync with Trump on DPRK strategy.   It does not have to be DPRK.  A nicely timed conflict with PRC or ROK over some of the disputed islands would also help Abe nicely.  In many way the current LDP plans for Constitutional changes that legitimatizes SDF might be the trigger that might get Abe such an external conflict.  Of course another things that helps Abe is that his main LDP rival 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) does not have good relationships with other LDP factions.  So as long as Abe is "borderline" in terms of public support he might narrowly win the  Sept 2018 LDP Prez contest.

It seems that HP and DP will merge and the new name of the party would be .... DPJ.

A history of DPJ YP JRP splits and mergers are as following

2010 YP split from LDP with some DPJ rebels joining
2012 JRP formed with ORA at its core plus a bunch of LDP DPJ and YP rebels
2014 pro-JRP faction of YP UP splits from YP.  Far Hawk Right faction of JRP PFG splits from JRP.  UP and JRP merges into JIP.  YP disbands with some members joining JRP or PFG
2015 anti-DPJ faction and mostly the old ORA core of JIP ORA splits from JIP.  JIP left with mostly ex-DPJ ex-YP members. PFG renames itself PJK
2016 JIP merges with DPJ into DP.  ORA renames itself JRP (again).  
2017 HP is created as LDP splinter.  DP Right faction merges into HP.  DP Left faction splits into CDP.  Most of what is left of PJK merges into HP
2018 ex-PJK parts of HP will most likely rejoin PJK or form a new party.  HP and DP merges into DPJ.

CDP will still fly high above them imo. I don't think this merger will help either the Kibo wing or the DP wing.

Latest NTV poll has Abe approval/disapproval at record lows given the recent resurgence of the various Abe scandals.  26.7(-3.6)/53.4 (+0.4).  Other pollsters has it at 30s.  

LDP-KP support is still holding up

LDP   33.4 (-1.1)
CDP     9.5 (-0.8 )
KP       4.0 (+0.3)
JCP      3.4 (-0.5)
JRP      2.2 (+0.9)
DP       1.2 (-0.8 )
SDP     0.9 (-0.8 )
HP       0.7 (-0.2)

What has happened to DP politicians in the upper house and prefectural legislatures? Have any gone over to CDP?

A few did in the Upper House but most did not.  In Local prefectures it is the some urban area DP members did move to CDP.

In Tokyo 練馬区議会 (Nerima Ward) Assembly) by-elections is instructive of how level of support have changed.  Turnout is low which should have helped LDP.

2017 Tokyo Prefecture elections
LDP           19.6%
TPFA         35.3%
KP            14.3%
DP            14.0%
JCP           11.2%
Minor Left    5.6%

Now in the by-election where 10 candidates ran for 5 seats (2 LDP 1 JCP 1 CDP and 1 Minor Left got elected)
LDP          34.5%  (includes one LDP rebel)
Anti-NHK    4.7%  (fringe Far Right anti-NHK party)
TPFA         19.3%
CDP          15.8%
JCP           12.6%
Minor Left  13.1%

()

TPFA losing support fast and is not helped by low turnout.  LDP+ bloc gained from 2017 most because of low turnout was expected.  JCP gaining a bit not a surprise with low turnout.   Main shock is the CDP and Minor Left performance, especially with low turnout.  

With this level of support for Abe Cabinet, if the LDP is serious about Constitutional reform then they have to dump Abe in Sept 2018.  There seems to be no way, currently, for the Japanese electorate to vote for any change in the Constitution with Abe at the driving wheel. 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/04/16/national/politics-diplomacy/former-prime-minister-koizumi-sees-embattled-abe-quitting-june-magazine/#.WtSCsy7wYuU

Old LDP PM Koizumi says Abe most likely quits in June when the Diet session is over.  Predicts that if he tries to run for re-election for LDP Prez in Sept 2018 he is likely to be defeated and even if he wins he will lead LDP to a defeat in 2019 Upper House elections.

Abe approval dropping again. Next week or two will determine if he will drop below Summer of 2017 levels in which he might have to go ASAP.

()

Who would be the next leader after Abe goes? Omura? Okada?

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/04/18/national/anti-nuclear-niigata-governor-eyes-resignation-amid-sex-scandal-move-likely-impact-restart-key-power-plant/#.WtgLDDUpC2c (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/04/18/national/anti-nuclear-niigata-governor-eyes-resignation-amid-sex-scandal-move-likely-impact-restart-key-power-plant/#.WtgLDDUpC2c)

Either 岸田 文雄(Kishida Fumio) or 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru).  Both are LDP faction leaders and there are views that it is "their turn."  Ishiba would have won the 2012 LDP Prez race over Abe if it the rules for the run-off were not a vote by MPs but a vote MPs and LDP chapters like the first round. 小泉 進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō), son of old LDP PM Koizumi, is popular as well but in the hierarchy based LDP he is unlikely to run nor win despite his popularity.  He will have to wait until he has more tenure. 

Not sure even why this is such a scandal but yes he is gone.  My understanding is that this involved him and some escorts which he might or might not known were escorts.  He is not even married.

he resigned over that?

So, if the North Korea news is truthful, how much does it suck or rock to be Abe right now?

^{I'm fairly sure its suck}

Obviously suck ..

Some more polls came in .. .Abe approval curve continue to head down and getting close to Summer 2017 levels

()

Koizumi might just attempt a Newt Gingrich/Gerald Ford-style takeover of the party establishment by younger politicians.

This took place in 2001 when former PM 橋本 龍太郎(Hashimoto Ryūtarō) was expected to win but Koizumi senior won as the renegade candidate.  But back in 2001 LDP was in the dumps in the polls and in crisis.  Even if Abe were to leave such a situation does not seem to exist as LDP support seems to be holding up well.

The reason for not backing Abe Cabinet which is "I do not trust PM Abe" (dark purple) hits a record high and surpasses Summer of 2017 levels even as overall lack of support seems to match 2017 Summer peaks.
()

http://www.asahi.com/politics/yoron/

Has the Ashai cabinet approval with history with breakdown by gender and age.

Abe Cabinet approval in April is 31%.  But the approval level among women is 23% which matches women approval of the DPJ Noda cabinet right before the landslide defeat of DPJ in 2012.   Abe Cabinet approval among men is 40% which is not that great but only somewhat below 2015 levels for Abe Cabinet.

Abe Cabinet approvals for 60-69 and 70+ are around levels of support for these age groups for the DPJ Noda cabinet back in late 2012.  Abe Cabinet approval for the 40-49 and 50-59 are low but around the same as the lows in Summer of 2015 and Summer of 2017.   Abe cabinet approval for 20-29 and 30-39 a bit on the low side but not that different from other levels achieved in for the Abe Cabinet.

So the Abe Cabinet approval fall is concentrated among women and the elderly and much more contained in other demographics. 

It seems the DP-HP merge will create a party not called DPJ but 國民民主黨 (National Democratic Party) or I guess NPP (for now as there is no official English name yet.)  The new party simplified name will be called 國民 just like DP had the simplified name 民進.  What i funny is that these two names matches the two main ROC parties (long time ruling party (and my part) 國民黨 and now ruling party 民進黨.)

A bunch of Right wing MPs of HP will not join and will form their own niche Right wing opposition party while a bunch of Left wing MPs of DP will not join and will most likely end up in DCP if DCP would take them.

Here we go again.  It seems yesterday 森山 裕(Moriyama Hiroshi) chairman of LDP Diet Affairs Committee indicated that a snap election should not be ruled out if the opposition insist on calling a vote of no confidence over Abe scandals.  Abe came out to deny this as a possibility.   

If things stay like this, the opposition could be in one of the best positions it's ever been in to defeat the LDP imo.

Which is exactly why Abe called the election early. He has another five years to bounce back from this and as soon as his approvals are high he'll immediately call another snap election.

He doesn't have 5 years, if he stays impopular, the LDP will get rid of him very soon.

The LDP leadership election happens in September. Japan will have a new PM after that election, it's almost certain right now.

I doubt it.  I think even if an election is called now the LDP-KP will still win but with a reduced majority.  Abe was not that popular back in Oct 2017 but still LDP-KP barely made it to 2/3 majority.  For now there are not just not enough CDP and NPP quality candidates to overcome LDP in the various marginal seats.
If an election is called today I think it would be

LDP    240
KP       30
JRP      15
CDP     90
NPP      50  (HP-DP fusion)
JCP      16
SDP      2
LP         2
Others 20 (various ex-DP ind., LDP rebels, Right ex-HP ind etc etc)

Not so sure about that.  It Abe's approval numbers stabilize around current levels then he is a 50/50 show to win in Sept 2018.  If it gets worse he might be out in June.  So what the Abe Cabinet approval numbers look like between now and the summer would be critical.

I wonder what the Aoki index would look lile right now.

Looking at Abe cabinet support and party support curve

()
()

It is around 69.  Not good but not catastrophic.  Back in Summer 2017 it was as low as 65.  Main reason why it holding up is because LDP support has mostly held up amid opposition chaos. 

In 2017 elections LDP-KP PR vote was 45.8% while the sum of HP CDP SDP and JCP is 46.8% which are very similar.  So a map of LDP-KP vs HP-CDP-SDP-JCP is fairly close to a Japan version of PVI map.  Red is ruling bloc leads (LDP-KP) and Blue is opposition leads (HP-CDP-SDP-JCP)
()

edit: fixed typo

You got the colors the wrong way around I think, I would have assumed that red was LDP-KP on that map, also how it says ruling party under the red scale.

Yes. typo ... will fix

Aoki index based on different pollsters.  Ranges from 59 to 74.  Not very good but not catastrophic 

()

HP-DP merger party 國民民主黨 (National Democratic Party) (NDP) (not sure this is the official English name of the party) kicks off

()

()

One year later, we come full circle. :(

So the official English name of the new DP-HP merged party  國民民主黨 will be Democratic Party of the People (DPFP) and not National Democratic Party which would be a straight translation of the name.  It seems there was a fear that the party would be seen as Right wing if it used the National in its name when its approach would be Centrist with a slight Left lean.  The Hawk Right bloc within HP from the old DP Far Right and PJK will most likely form a rump HP so HP will continue.

So net net relative to 2017, DP split into 3 blocs.  The Left became DCP, Center became DPFP, and the small Hawk Right merged with various PJK and other ex-YP Far Right sections to become a Hawk Right Third Pole HP.

What’s the deal with that pose?

The are standard at Japanese pep rallies.  Here is 蓮舫(Renho) at the rally where she took over DP leadership in Sept 2016.

()

Latest Kyodo shows has Abe Cabinet approval at 38.9 (+1.9) and

()

The new DPFP support not shooting up.  Party support has it at

自民(LDP)          37.1（+0.3）
立憲民主(CDP) 　13.3（+1.4）
共産(JCP)   　　　4.5（-0.6）
公明(KP)    　　　3.7（+0.5）
維新(JRP)   　　　1.5（-1.5）
国民民主(DPFP) 　1.1 (new）
社民(SDP)  　　　0.8（-0.4）
自由(LP)    　　　0.7（+0.5）
希望(HP)   　　　0.7（-1.0） (Hardliner Hawk right faction of HP will continue as HP)

It seems the DP-HP merger mostly benefited CDP with DPFP not getting too much support so far.

Abe approval rating curve comes back.  He is safe for now.  Sept 2018 LDP race still up in the air but you have to give Abe reasonably good chance of winning that too.

()

新潟(Niigata) governor by-election this weekend.  In 2016 the opposition pulled off an upset win over LDP 52-46 over the nuclear issue.  The pro-opposition governor had to resign over a sex scandal.  Just like 2018 it will be a showdown between a pro-LDP candidate and an united opposition candidate (backed by CDP SDP LP JCP and the newly formed DPP.)  The all polling shows the race neck-to-neck.  There is another pro-opposition candidate in the mix but he is expected to get very few if any votes.

It seems the DP-HP merger party which is 国民民主党 decided to call itself Democratic Party For the People or DPP.

What party is Ozawa and his crew in at the moment?

Abe's approval curve still pretty much flat which means he is not out of danger for Sept 2018 LDP Prez race but he will not be booted out earlier then that.  Abe now needs another DPRK crisis to push up his ratings to the high 40s from high 30s.

()

Still LP.  Ozawa and gang ran as pro-HP independents in 2017 but then just reverted to LP afterwards when it was clear HP did not take off.

新潟(Niigata) governor by-election vote in progress.  This will be a test of if the non-JRP but inclusive of JCP united opposition can defeat LDP 1-on-1 in a swing prefecture.  If the united opposition wins then it shows that it can pull off a similar feat in 2019 as the 2016 Upper House single district seats races.  Given that JRP is in decline in (大阪)Osaka and (兵庫)Hyōgo then it is unlikely the non-JRP will be shut out of these prefectures. So this means that LDP-KP plus JRP will do worse in 2019 than in 2016.  If so then LDP only has a year left before the pro-Constitutional revisionist 2/3 majority in the Upper House is removed. 

With DP-HP merger into DPP a rump HP continues on as a Far Right Hawk party.  In fact most of the HP parliamentary caucus all were members of Far Right Hawk party of PFG of 2014-2016.  Main problem with this party is that 3 out of 5 MPs it has were elected in 2013 Upper House elections (as members of YP or JRP) and all 3 are unlikely to be elected as there seems very little prospect of this party crossing 2% to get PR seats especially with PJK still hanging around to split the Far Right Hawk vote.  So after 2019 this party will most likely decline into irreverence.

One funny fact about the 新潟(Niigata) governor by-election is that the LDP planned to deploy popular LDP MP Koizumi Junior to campaign for the pro-LDP candidate.  But then LDP ex-PM Koizumi Senior who is well known to be hostile to Abe as well as taken up the banner of anti-nuclear power and against position of the LDP have voiced support for the united opposition candidate.  To avoid pitting Koizumi Junior against his own father LDP scrapped plans to deploy Koizumi Junior in the election campaign.

All signs are that turnout for 新潟(Niigata) governor by-election is higher than 2018.  If so that is a ominous sign for LDP. 

新潟(Niigata) governor by-election voting over.  Exit polls show neck-to-neck race with a tiny advantage for pro-LDP candidate (mostly by using eyeball observation of the chart)

()

()

Rural village 関川村 done.  pro-LDP 59% United Opposition 38%.  Back in 2016 it was pro-LDP 54.9% United Opposition 42.7%.  It seems the rural vote is swinging toward LDP.  Unless there is a swing in urban area away from LDP then LDP chances of winning seem pretty good.

NHK exit poll

()

LDP voters (red) (37% of voters) and KP voters (pink) (3% of voters) mostly pro-LDP.
CDP voters (light blue) (13% of voters) and DPP voters (Dark blue) (2% of voters) mostly united opposition
JCP(purple) LP (light green) SDP(dark green) also for united opposition
Non-Aligned(35% of votes) breaking for united opposition.
()

A lot KP voters in there exist polls claims to be LDP voters due to social stigma.  A lot of Non-Aligned voters are hidden pro-opposition (including pro-JCP) voters.

Another rural village 弥彦村 done:  United opposition 48.4% pro-LDP 47.5%.  Back in 2016 it was   United opposition 55.5% pro-LDP 41.9%.  Another swing toward LDP.

3% of the vote counted

pro-LDP                50.5%
United opposition   47.2%

Some of the early prelim urban results show a swing away from United Opposition from 2016 but at much reduced levels and enough for United Opposition to win.  So it really comes down to the strength of swings in urban areas vs rural areas.

With 5% of the vote counted

pro-LDP                50.6%
United opposition   46.2%

TBS exit poll has it at a hedging their bets

pro-LDP                 47.4%
United opposition   47.3%

()

Urban/Suburban area 十日町市 done

pro-LDP                 49.1%
United opposition   47.6%

back in 2016 it was
pro-LDP                 48.2%
United opposition   50.6%

If this holds not enough for LDP to win give in 2016 it was overall

pro-LDP                 45.9%
United opposition   52.2%

Election called for pro-LDP candidate

With 60% of the vote counted it is

pro-LDP                 49.5%
United opposition   46.6%

I think the final result will be a tiny bit closer but this result is a victory for Abe.  Seems like he is now fairly favored to win the 2018 Sept LDP Prez election.  Quite amazing when a couple of months ago, like the Summer of 2017, it seems that he was finished and on his way out.

With 94% of the vote counted it is

pro-LDP                 48.6%
United opposition   47.6%

Outstanding votes I think more leans LDP

All votes counted

pro-LDP                 49.6%
United opposition   46.3%

Which is a significant swing to LDP from 2016 and a larger than expected victory for the pro-LDP candidate.  It was not even an issue of the "Third Party" candidate which has pro-Opposition origins but looking at exit polls took votes from both camps equally and if anything more from the pro-LDP camp. 

新潟(Niigata) governor election is results is interesting is that if you look at the vote share by the 6 national districts, the pro-LDP candidate won Districts 1 2 3 4 while the United Opposition won Districts 5 and 6.  Back in Oct 2017 National Diet elections it was also an United Opposition vs LDP.  There the United Opposition won Districts 1 2 3 4 while LDP won Districts 5 and 6 which is exactly the opposite of the Governor by-election.  Goes to show how personalities/candidate play a large role in determining the winner especially in swing districts. 

For 2019 Upper House elections the current proposal is to add an extra seat for 埼玉(Saitama) so it goes from a 3 seat district to 4 while adding 2 PR seats overall.  This way the district seats goes from 73 to 74 while PR seats goes from 48 to 50.  This is done to reduce the seat to population disparity between different districts which if not reduced risks the Japan supreme court ruling the entire election process unconstitutional.  In order to make progress on this for 2016 鳥取(Tottori) and 島根(Shimane) had to be merged into one seat and the same for 徳島(Tokushima) and 高知(Kōchi).  There were a lot of complaints about this from those 4 prefectures and adding 2 PR seats is a way to increase the chances that someone from these 4 prefectures make it into the Upper House.

Overall 埼玉(Saitama) going from 3 to 4 seats helps the opposition.  Usually a 3 seat district ends up being LDP-KP 2 Opposition 1.  In a 4 seat district it is usually LDP 1 KP 1 Opposition 1 Opposition or JCP 1.

Abe approval rating curve heading up.  His position for Sept 2018 LDP Prez election getting better and better.  There seems to be low support for Abe personally but support for the Abe Cabinet is heading up.  The fact that LDP MPs and local chapters will vote for LDP Prez gives Abe an edge since that vote is more about who can lead LDP to victory in 2019 Upper House.

()

LDP faction leader Toshihiro Nikai (二階 俊博) who leads the Nikai faction made the comment that Abe is a shoe in to win re-election in the Sept 2018 LDP Prez reace.  Nikai used to be a rival of Abe but since 2016 Abe made him Secretary General of the LDP in an attempt to pull his faction into the Abe circle.  I guess as long as Abe gets his own faction to back him, also keep the loyalty of the Aso faction led by DPM Tarō Asō (麻生 太郎) and as long as his approval rating stays above 40% then Nikai is most likely right.  I guess Abe survives another near death experience.

This plan just got approved. So for the 2019 Upper House elections it will be 73 district seats and 48 PR seats for 121 seats it will be 74 district seats and 50 PR seats for 124 seats up for election. 

April 2019 there will be a large number of prefecture elections.  All prefectures except for 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 福島(Fukushima) [these 3 got "knocked off the regular cycle" due to the 2011 nuclear accident], 茨城(Ibaraki), 東京(Tokyo), and 沖縄(Okinawa) will have their prefecture election at that time.

茨城(Ibaraki) will have theirs in Dec 2018.

There have been a lot of churn since April 2015 in the non-JCP opposition space.  Namely DPJ has basically split into a Centrist DPP and a Center-Left CDP.  It seems CDP might have alliances with JCP in some prefectures but that is yet to be seen.  It is also possible if not likely that CDP will have alliances with DPP in some prefectures.

The main advantage for the LDP-KP is that they tend to have most of the raw talent at the local level since distribution of subsidies from the central government to the prefecture government flow via LDP MPs to LDP MLAs.   The LDP-KP alliance also means that unless DCP DPP and JCP can form alliances in 1-seat districts then LDP-KP are destined to sweep all of them. 

A look at how the seats are distributed between 1- 2- and even larger districts between different prefectures gives us a sense of the LDP advantage.   The dynamic will be that LDP will sweep all the 1- seat districts and potentially 2- seat districts in rural areas.  In 3- seat districts it will be LDP-LDP(or KP)-Opposition.  In 4 seat districts it will be LDP-KP-Opposition-JCP(or Opposition).  Beyond that JCP will for sure win a seat and other smaller opposition parties (JCP and SDP) will begin to get seats. 

()

茨城(Ibaraki), 埼玉(Saitama), 新潟(Niigata), 岐阜(Gifu), 大阪(Osaka), 高知(Kōchi), 福岡(Fukuoka), 熊本   (Kumamoto), and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) have a large number of seats which are 1- seat districts which gives the LDP (or JRP in Osaka) a large advantage. 

In some prefectures the LDP is so strong that a local rebel LDP faction is actually the real opposition and pulls in opposition votes and leaves the non-JCP opposition with even less votes.  茨城(Ibaraki) is an example of this although post-2017 Lower House elections the local LDP rebel kingpin 中村 喜四郎 (Nakamura Kishirō) decided to join forces with the non-JCP opposition and will most likely have an alliance with DPP if not also with CDP.

Some prefectures have specialized local circumstances.

In 岩手(Iwate) Ozawa's LP is the lynch pin of the non-JCP opposition and has deprived LDP-KP of a majority.
In 東京(Tokyo) we have Koike's  TPFA as the ruling party although with Koike's political reputation ruined with HP and 2017 elections TPFA will fall into decline to the benefit of LDP soon.
In 三重(Mie) a local anti-JCP opposition party (New Politics Mie) in alliance with the non-JCP opposition has help drive LDP-KP to below a majority.
In 大阪(Osaka) JRP-KP has a majority.  In Osaka it is de facto JRP-KP vs LDP-(non-JCP opposition)-JCP.   JRP is a LDP splinter so the LDP branch of Osaka is so hostile to JRP it rather have a de facto alliance with JCP than work with JRP.
In 沖縄(Okinawa) due to the base issue an broad anti-base Center-Left alliance have a majority.
In 滋賀(Shiga) a anti-LDP center-left local opposition (Team Shiga) in alliance with the non-JCP alliance has driven LDP-KP close to losing its majority.

The main battle in April is will LDP-KP lose ground at the prefecture level.  LDP does have a chance at winning a majority in 大阪(Osaka) and the non-JCP opposition will work to keep the LDP-KP from a majority in  三重(Mie) and perhaps 滋賀(Shiga).  Longer but possible shots have driving LDP-KP to below majority will be 長野(Nagano) and 京都(Kyoto) [JCP are strong there but that makes it harder for JCP and non-JCP opposition to form an alliance].  Everywhere else it is at best a battle to reduce the size of the LDP-KP majority.

Abe cabinet approval recovery now stabilizing and reversing a bit.

()

Former Foreign Minister  岸田 文雄(Kishida Fumio) said he will not run in the Sept 2018 LDP Prez elections and instead will back Abe.  This pretty much seals it for Abe who will now win an unprecedented third term and most likely stay on as PM until 2021 making him the longest serving Japanese PM of the modern era.  Most likely 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru) will run making it nominally a competitive race unlike the 2015 Abe walkover but his faction is far too small to be a threat to Abe.

So with the More left Democratic Party, how much of it is originating from splinters of LDP, like with HP being former rebels.

Very few. CDP are mainly long-standing politicians formerly on the left of the DPJ, who got their start in the 90s mini-parties like the New Party - Sakigake, Japan New Party, etc., or long-standing small parties like the Japan Socialist Party. This describes at least half the caucus. Also some younger DPJ politicians, a small number of political novices, and a small number of anti-revisionists from centre-right parties like JIP, PNP or LDP.

Totally correct.  Although parties like JNP and NPS are LDP splinters themselves.  In the case of people that ended up in CDP that had a JNP and NPS background back in the 1990s all of them were not in the LDP but joined JNP and NPS after they were formed.

Kyodo News poll shows that of the 405 LDP lawmakers across both houses of the Diet, 310 or 76.5% said they plan to vote for Abe in the September election, with many citing the success of his economic policies and diplomatic tact.

I posted this a while back on AAD - "a sizable flowchart of Japanese political parties since the War." I hesitated to post this on Atlas, most importantly because the forum software can't handle a figure as wide as this flowchart. Therefore, you'll have to open the image in a new window to actually read anything.

()

This is awesome. Thanks.   I never put much time into the pre-1955 party system so your chart is very useful.  A couple of minor points I would like to make
1) Party for Future Generations is written "次世代" not "次时代"
2) In addition to defections from LDP and DPJ, when Japan Restoration Party (日本維新の会) was started in 2012 it got some defections from Your Party (みんなの党) as well.
3) A predecessor to Sunrise Party (太陽の党) which was formed in 2010 was Hiranuma Group(平沼グループ ) which was formed by LDP postal reform rebel Takeo Hiranuma (平沼 赳夫) 2009 with most LDP defectors but a couple of DPJ MPs as a Far Right Hawk group.  It was then renamed Committee to protect national interests and people's lives(国益と国民の生活を守る会) after the 2009 elections.  When Sunrise Party (太陽の党) was formed in 2010 had Takeo Hiranuma (平沼 赳夫) also taking most of the Committee to protect national interests and people's lives(国益と国民の生活を守る会) with him.  What remains merged back into LDP in 2011.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-okinawa-election/son-of-u-s-marine-elected-okinawa-governor-on-anti-u-s-base-platform-idUSKCN1MA0K6?il=0 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-okinawa-election/son-of-u-s-marine-elected-okinawa-governor-on-anti-u-s-base-platform-idUSKCN1MA0K6?il=0)


So, how much of Sakima's defeat was due to the Okinawa base issue, and how much of it was due to other factors?

It's the predominant question in Okinawan politics, the sine qua non. Okinawa has just 4 direct seats in the lower house of the Diet, yet it is the only prefecture to elect members from not just the small Communist Party, but the tiny Social Democratic Party, precisely because of their leadership of and participation in the anti-base movement.

I wrote about it here

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=298240.msg6440776#msg6440776

It is mostly if not all about the base.  Danny Tamaki campaigned about being against the bases. His victory speech is pretty much a promise to continue blocking any attempt to move the bases and insist that the goal should be the removal of all bases.  Okinawa politics is pretty much all about the bases. 

Also, today marks exactly one year since the formation of the Constitutional Democratic Party.

Various scandals, economic impact of tax increase and now coronavirus drives Abe Cabinet approval down to even and headed into negative territory.

()

Still won’t be enough to finally get the LDP out of office.

"There is no one else :( :( :("

()

Abe cabinet approval back above water as the virus crisis shock have been absorbed and there is a bit of a rally-around-the-flag effect for Abe. 

Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike is up for re-election in June 2020.  Yuriko Koike ran as an LDP rebel in 2016 defeating the LDP candidate to win and then attempted to become the leader of an anti-LDP front in 2017. 

Now, under the old rule of "if you win you are LDP" it seems LDP will end up backing Yuriko Koike for re-election ensuring her re-election since a LDP-KP-Koike alliance plus JRP just to make sure is certainly going to get a large majority of the vote in the governor election especially when governor elections always favors the sitting incumbent.  Of course part of the reason LDP did this is because LDP concluded that a LDP candidate, even backed by KP, is unlikely to defeat Koike anyway.  So if you cannot beat them, join them.

Big news

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/24/tokyo-olympics-to-be-postponed-to-2021-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic

Abe and IOC agrees to delay Olympics for one year.  There goes Abe's plan of a late 2020 lower house election in the afterglow of a successful Tokyo Olympics. Of course that plan was sort of dead anyway after the virus outbreak in Jan-Feb.

When do you think Abe likely holds the next election then?

It is either early 2021 or perhaps even July 2020.  With the Olympics pushed back one year there is a real risk that Abe becomes a lame duck PM.  I think within the LDP the view of Abe as an election asset is declining so Abe's ability to get a unprecedented 4th team in Sept 2021 or to influence his successor is now in doubt even as the LDP leadership are still 100% behind Abe.  What Abe has to do is to show that he is an election winner which makes a July 2020 election possible.  If Abe does not go that route then an election in early 2021 would be the only other option.  For sure Abe has to get the next lower house election done well before the Sept 2021 LDP prez election and ergo well in advance of Oct 2021 when it is due legally.

Isn't it the case that the Japanese opposition would have a harder time the less time they have until the next election?

Agreed on principle.  Abe surprised DPJ and JRP in 2014 so they could not come up with viable candidates and work out tactical alliances.  In 2017 to some extent DP was sort of ready but the opposition was in the middle of a realignment. 

This time around it seems for competitive seats CDP DPP SDP and JCP are mostly on the same page which candidates will take on the LDP-KP 1-on-1.  Main problem now is trying to get RS to come along.  DPP's Ozawa which was in the same party as RS leader Tarō Yamamoto during the 2017-2019 period under PLP and then LP has been tasks to work things out with Yamamoto.  One big unknown will be where outside of Osaka JRP will run and what impact that will have on competitive seats.

Based off the best knowledge we have rn, what are the most competitive seats? I assume Tokyo-1 is one of them?

There are a lot of them since the role that JCP would play will make a fairly large difference.  Out of the 226 seats the LDP-KP won out of 289 in 2017 I count 49 of them that could fall to the united opposition  and another 6 more that could fall to JRP.  Out of these I would say 5 are almost certain to fall to the united opposition and another 3 are certain to fall to JRP.

On the flip side LDP-KP could re-capture up to 7 seats from the opposition with 2 of them certain to go to LDP (mostly due to opposition defections to LDP.)

A lot of the variably comes down how well the united opposition vote fuse and the role JRP would play to split the LDP and/or the anti-LDP vote.  Tokyo 1st is actually considered fairly safe for CDP who should hold it unless JCP runs a candidate which seems unlikely.

Tokyo, just like 2017, will be a big unknown as it seems that the JRP will run a lot of candidates this time with fairly unknown impact on if they take more votes away from LDP or from the united opposition.

There will be a by-election in 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district April 26 due to the death of the LDP incumbent back in Dec 2019.  The opposition will run a united front candidate 田中健(Tanaka Ken) who is a DPP MLA in the prefecture with the backing of CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP to take on LDP.   田中健(Tanaka Ken) had run in 2017 as HP candidate but lost to the LDP incumbent.  Just to troll the united opposition PNHK will run a candidate with the exact same name (田中健(Tanaka Ken)) who is a minor ex-DPJ politician at the district level in Tokyo but have since joined PNHK.

In 2017 it was

LDP   55.87%
HP     33.42%
JCP    10.70%

PR vote for this district in 2017 was

LDP  31.86%
KP    14.44%         
HRP   0.36%
JRP    4.01%
HP    25.45%
CDP  15.65%
SDP   0.84%
JCP    7.40%

On paper if the joint opposition candidate can consolidate the old HP, CDP, SDP and JCP PR vote he could squeak out an victory if the PNHK candidate can pick up some JRP and dissident LDP PR voters.  In reality a good part of the 2017 HP PR vote will go LDP and with lower turnout in a by-election the best the United opposition candidate can do is to keep it close.   On thing going for the united opposition candidate is that the LDP candidate will not be the son of the old LDP incumbent but a local LDP MLA in the prefecture assembly.  At least the LDP will not have the sympathy factor on its side and the LDP MLA will have to work hard to get the full support of the old LDP MP support network.

It seems in the 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by e-elections the PNHK tactic of nominating a candidate with the same name as the united opposition candidate is an attempt to disrupt the election system.  This is because in Japanese elections there are no pre-printed ballots and instead the voter just writes down the name of the candidate they wish to vote for.  Now the election commission is stuck on how to count a vote for 田中健(Tanaka Ken) since there are two of them running.

This seems like a problem they must have encountered before in 70 years of democratic elections...

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/30/national/politics-diplomacy/name-kanji-pair-elected-saga-poll-voters-fail-differentiate-incumbent-challenger/#.Xoi8jFMpAwA

()

I guess the election commission will do something similar

Now that Japan is all done with the Unified Local elections in 2019 plus a bunch of prefecture assembly elections in late 2019 I went through all prefecture assemblies can categorized those elected into LDP+ (LDP and other non-KP allies, pro-LDP independents, or LDP rebels), KP, OPPN (non-JCP Center-Left opposition forces - CDP DPP SDP and allies), TP (Third Pole - Center-Right opposition forces - JRP, TPFA, NPD, TCJ and allies), and JCP.

The most recent prefecture assemblies were all elected in April 2019 except for

岩手Iwate) Sept 2019
宮城(Miyagi) Oct 2019
福島(Fukushima) Nov 2019
茨城(Ibaraki) Dec 2018
東京(Tokyo) June 2017
沖縄(Okinawa) June 2016

Pref.     LDP+      KP        LDP++     OPPN      TP           JCP
北海道 53.00%   8.00%   61.00%   36.00%   0.00%   3.00%  Hokkaido
青森    64.58%   6.25%   70.83%   22.92%   0.00%   6.25%  Aomori
岩手    29.17%   2.08%   31.25%   52.08%  10.42%  6.25%  Iwate
宮城    55.93%   6.78%   62.71%   25.42%   3.39%   8.47%  Miyagi
秋田    62.79%   2.33%   65.12%   32.56%   0.00%   2.33%  Akita
山形    65.12%   2.33%   67.44%   27.91%   0.00%   4.65%  Yamagata
福島    53.45%   6.90%   60.34%   31.03%   0.00%   8.62%  Fukushima
茨城    80.65%   6.45%   87.10%    9.68%    0.00%   3.23%  Ibaraki
栃木    72.00%   6.00%   78.00%   18.00%   2.00%   2.00%  Tochigi
群馬    70.00%   6.00%   76.00%   20.00%   0.00%   4.00%  Gunma
埼玉    53.76%   9.68%   63.44%   30.11%   0.00%   6.45%  Saitama
千葉    60.64%   8.51%   69.15%   27.66%   1.06%   2.13%  Chiba
神奈川 52.38%   7.62%   60.00%   35.24%   0.00%   4.76%  Kanagawa
山梨    75.68%   2.70%   78.38%   18.92%   0.00%   2.70%  Yamanashi
東京    18.11% 18.11%   36.22%     4.72% 44.09% 14.96%  Tokyo
新潟    62.26%   3.77%   66.04%   32.08%   0.00%   1.89%  Niigata
富山    85.00%   2.50%   87.50%     7.50%   0.00%   5.00%  Toyama
石川    74.42%   4.65%   79.07%   18.60%   0.00%   2.33%  Ishikawa
福井    75.68%   2.70%   78.38%   18.92%   0.00%   2.70%  Fukui
長野    50.88% 15.79%   66.67%   22.81%   1.75%   8.77%  Nagano
岐阜    73.91%   4.35%   78.26%   19.57%   0.00%   2.17%  Gifu
静岡    61.76%   7.35%   69.12%   29.41%   0.00%   1.47%  Shizuoka
愛知    57.84%   5.88%   63.73%   34.31%   1.96%   0.00%  Aichi
三重    50.98%   3.92%   54.90%   43.14%   0.00%   1.96%  Mie
滋賀    47.73%   4.55%   52.27%   38.64%   0.00%   9.09%  Shiga
京都    50.00%   8.33%   58.33%   18.33%   3.33% 20.00%  Kyoto
大阪    18.18% 17.05%   35.23%     2.27% 60.23%   2.27%  Osaka
兵庫    50.00% 15.12%   65.12%   18.60% 10.47%   5.81%  Hyōgo
奈良    62.79%   6.98%   69.77%   11.63%   9.30%   9.30%  Nara
和歌山 69.05%   7.14%   76.19%   11.90%   2.38%   9.52%  Wakayama
鳥取    60.00%   8.57%   68.57%   28.57%   0.00%   2.86%  Tottori
島根    75.68%   5.41%   81.08%   13.51%   0.00%   5.41%  Shimane
岡山    72.73%   9.09%   81.82%   14.55%   0.00%   3.64%  Okayama
広島    65.63%   9.38%   75.00%   21.88%   1.56%   1.56%  Hiroshima
山口    68.09% 10.64%   78.72%   17.02%   0.00%   4.26%  Yamaguchi
徳島    68.42%   5.26%   73.68%   21.05%   0.00%   5.26%  Tokushima
香川    68.29%   4.88%   73.17%   21.95%   0.00%   4.88%  Kagawa
愛媛    65.96%   4.26%   70.21%   10.64% 17.02%   2.13%  Ehime
高知    59.46%   8.11%   67.57%   18.92%   0.00% 13.51%  Kōchi
福岡    60.92% 11.49%   72.41%   25.29%   0.00%   2.30%  Fukuoka
佐賀    76.32%   5.26%   81.58%   13.16%   0.00%   5.26%  Saga
長崎    69.57%   6.52%   76.09%   21.74%   0.00%   2.17%  Nagasaki
熊本    81.63%   6.12%   87.76%   10.20%   0.00%   2.04%  Kumamoto
大分    53.49%   6.98%   60.47%   34.88%   0.00%   4.65%  Ōita
宮崎    66.67%   7.69%   64.36%   20.51%   0.00%   5.13%  Miyazaki
鹿児島 76.47%   5.88%   82.35%   11.76%   3.92%   1.96%  Kagoshima
沖縄    31.25%   8.33%   39.58%   43.75%   4.17% 12.50%  Okinawa
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total   58.27%   7.95%   66.22%   22.99%   5.60%   5.19%  (straight average)
Total   52.75%   9.44%   62.19%   22.11%  10.26%  5.44%  (weight by population)

LDP-KP dominates all prefecture assemblies except for 東京(Tokyo) (dominated by Third Pole TPFA), 大阪(Osaka) (dominated by Third pole JRP), 岩手(Iwate) (dominated by pro-Ozawa forces) and 沖縄(Okinawa) (dominated by anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance)

LDP utterly dominates rural prefecture while Third Pole parties are stronger in urban areas.  JCP stronger in urban areas like 東京(Tokyo), 京都(Kyoto) as well as old JCP stronghold of 高知(Kōchi) and of course anti-base 沖縄(Okinawa). OPPN is stronger in old DPJ strongholds of 愛知(Aichi), 三重(Mie), 滋賀(Shiga), and 大分(Ōita) (which is more of an old SDP stronghold.)   In old DPJ stronghold of 北海道(Hokkaido) the local non-LDP vote continue to be split between OPPN and Third Pole regionalist NPD giving the LDP a strong edge in terms of seats.   Within the OPPN bloc, CDP tends to be stronger in urban and Northern areas plus especially 北海道(Hokkaido) while DPP tends to be stronger in rural and Southern areas.

Part of the reason for LDP domination in rural prefectures is that a lot of the seats elected in rural prefecture tend to have a lot of 1- or 2- member districts which are easily dominated by the LDP whereas urban prefecture tend to have a lot more 3- 4- or even larger districts where non-LDP parties tend to wins some seats even as the LDP will win the most seats.

In terms of seats elected out of a total of 2679 seats it was

LDP        1302
KP           206
PGR            1 (奈良(Nara) based LDP ally)
JA               1 (福岡(Fukuoka) based LDP ally)
TPFA          49 (東京(Tokyo) pro-Koike party)
JRP            71
TCJ              1 (愛知(Aichi) based Right wing DPJ splinter - allied with JRP)
LPI              5 (岩手(Iwate) anti-Ozawa DPJ splinter and LDP ally)
DPP         123
CDP         135
Minor Left  10
SDP           32
JCP          139
Ind.         604

For CDP and DPP totals I included those elected under the banner of their local affiliates which might not be named DPP or CDP exactly.

Out of 604 independents

257 caucused with LDP or LDP allied blocs or are LDP rebels
7 caucused with KP
24 caucused with Third Pole parties or allied blocs   
316 caucused with OPPN parties or allied blocs
 
A lot of the old DPJ incumbents ran this time as independents with de facto or de jure backing of a combination of CDP DPJ and SDP as a result a lot of elected independents end up caucusing with OPPN blocs.    

The same chart as of Mid 2018 before this latest round of prefecture elections starting with 茨城(Ibaraki) in Dec 2018

Pref.     LDP+      KP        LDP++     OPPN      TP           JCP
Total   57.80%   8.08%   65.87%   22.40%    5.95%   5.77%   (straight average)
Total   52.88%   9.62%   62.50%   21.08%  10.30%   6.12%   (weight by population)

Other than JRP making large gains against LDP in  大阪(Osaka), the LDP gaining ground and JRP mostly disappearing in rural prefectures relative to 2015. One exception to this is 愛媛(Ehime) where the local JRP was fairly strong in 2015 and made even further gains from both the LDP and OPPN.   JRP also retained some strength in 兵庫(Hyōgo) and 奈良(Nara) mostly due to their close proximity to 大阪(Osaka).  In 北海道(Hokkaido) LDP also makes gains relative to 2015 since the DPJ-NPD alliance of 2015 broke up with NPD not backing CDP but backing LDP in some seats which shifted the balance further toward the LDP.

Non-JCP OPPN gaining ground in the Tokyo suburb Kanto regions of 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), and 神奈川(Kanagawa) while also losing ground in rural prefectures to LDP.  JCP lost ground across the board relative to 2015 which makes sense as 2014-2015 is pretty must peak JCP strength in the post 1990s era.

How have the parties reacted to the pandemic? Are they shifting blame around, or are they working on minimizing the deaths to their constituents?

Latest polls has Abe cabinet approval dropping although it is only slightly below water.

()

LDP support dropping
()

But so is CDP
()

It seems overall trust of institutions are falling (cabinet, ruling party, main opposition party) 

 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by-election voting over.  Race called for LDP over CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP joint candidate and PNHK.

what was the margin?

Count in progress which is ultra early.  Turnout was low given the virus situation which of course plays to LDP advantage.  Kyodo exit polls has it

LDP candidate getting 84.7% of the LDP vote, 84.8% of the KP vote, and 42.4% of independents
CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP getting 86.8% of the CDP vote, 81.0$ of the DPP vote, 83.8% of the JCP vote, 100% of the SDP vote, and 50.7% of the independents vote

The CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP lead over LDP 50.7-42.4 of independents points to a large LDP victory as many anti-LDP voters identify as independents

Exit poll also show that approval/disapproval of government response to the virus as 49.3/43.2       

This seems to be a decenr end result for Abe Shinzo I guess, taken as a whole.

With 56% of the vote counted it is

LDP-KP                    65.4%
CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP    34.4%
PNHK                        0.1%

It seems PNHK's maneuvers to nominate a candidate with the same name as the CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP candidate backfired as it  highlighted the issue and voters made sure to vote for 田中　健(42) which is the age of the CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP candidate versus 54.  The Japanese election commission recommended voters write down the of the candidate to distinguish between the two same named candidates.

Otherwise low turnout clearly his helping LDP even though I suspect the count will shift toward CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP candidate later in the count.

For reference in 2017 it was

LDP   55.87%
HP     33.42%
JCP    10.70%

PR vote for this district in 2017 was

LDP  31.86%
KP    14.44%        
HRP   0.36%
JRP    4.01%
HP    25.45%
CDP  15.65%
SDP   0.84%
JCP    7.40%

Yep, this might reignite talks of an early election.  Even if approval of government on the virus crisis is lukewarm at best, the LDP is seen as the party that gets things done and CDP is seen as the party of ideals.  In a crisis you are going to gravitate toward "get things done" party.  Low turnout of course helps as well.

Two things came to mind as well.
With corona going around, the atmosphere of Japanese elections (which has restrictions on campaigning not seen in most other countries) is going to make it even harder for the opposition to get its ground game working properly and convinced needed swing voters.
Additionally, the opposition's ability to work together optimally will likely be hampered. It's easier for LDP-KP to serve as an effective fighting vehicle than CDP-DPP-SDP-others.

With 95% of the vote counted it is

LDP-KP                    63.7%
CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP    33.4%
PNHK                        1.5%

Ouch. That swing. The LDP victory margin has more than doubled since 2017.

All votes counted 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by-election (turnout was 34.1%)

LDP-KP                    61.3%    66,881
CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP    35.4%    38,566
PNHK                        1.6%      1,747

For reference in 2017 it was

LDP   55.87%       96,243
HP     33.42%      57,581
JCP    10.70%      18,437

PR vote for this district in 2017 was

LDP  31.86%
KP    14.44%       
HRP   0.36%
JRP    4.01%
HP    25.45%
CDP  15.65%
SDP   0.84%
JCP    7.40%

The question is how long will Abe remain as Prime Minister ?

He could still run for yet another term as LDP President, and is perhaps even very likely to do so.
This could mean he is still PM on New Years 2024.

Latest Mainichi poll has surge in support for JRP.

It has relatively low marks for Abe in handling the crisis and high marks for key governors.  

Which politician has performed the best in this crisis

Osaka JRP governor 吉村洋文 (Yoshimura Hirofumi)   32.7%
Tokyo TPFA govrnor 小池百合子 (Koike)                     10.3%
Abe                                                                        5.9%
Hokkaido LDP governor 鈴木直道 (Suzuki Naomichi)    4.5%
KP leader 山口那津男 (Yamaguchi Natsuo)                   1.7%
JCP leader in the Upper House 小池晃 (Koike Akira)     1.2%

This positive performance perception for Osaka JRP governor 吉村洋文 (Yoshimura Hirofumi) had led to a surge in support for JRP

Party support

LDP     30 (-4)
KP        5 (+2)
JRP     11 (+6)
DPP      2 (+1)
CDP      9 (--)
RS        2 (-1)
JCP       5 (+1)

with the JRP surging ahead of CDP in terms of overall support.  The JRP surge seems to be coming from LDP and independents.

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval is  40(-4)/45(+3)

I wonder if North Korea even funds the JCP anymore as it has Nukes and no reason to fund Anti-American Candidates that oppose the bases because America can't invade NK?

the JCP has never in recent history, if I recall, got funds from NK (correct me if I'm wrong here). It has always been at least mainly self-funding. They don't take money from corporations either.
This is why they have a reputation for honesty and integrity.

I do not think JCP had every received any funding from DPRK. Understand in Japan, a Japanese Communist has a lot more in common with another Japanese than another Communist from another country.

Tokyo Governor election will be July 5th 2020.  Koike will faces no real opposition with LDP and other opposition parties not running a candidate.  Only candidates running are fringe parties like PNHK, HRP, Far Right JFP (led by 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto)  who also ran in 2016) and minor Leftist Olive Tree. 

The Okinawa(沖縄) prefecture election will be June 7th will be more competitive as it will pit the anti-base Center-Left-JCP ruling bloc to try to retain its majority over LDP-KP and JRP.  With the virus crisis the base issue will have less salience and I suspect LDP-KP and JRP will both make gains.

Does JFP have any connection to the various post-Ishihara excrescences (JRP 1.0, PFG, PJK, etc.) or is Sakurai his own man?

He is independent of those Third pole parties.  I would call 日本第一党(JFP) or Japan First Party (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_First_Party) a Far Right protest party than a real Third Pole party.  I view a party as a Third Pole party as a non-LDP Center-Right party (mostly some form of a LDP splinter) but that had links to the establishment.  Parties like JFP, HRP and PNHK are Right wing protest parties that often does pick up disgruntled LDP or Third Pole voters but are not linked at all to the establishment.

As for  桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) and parties like JRP, the relationship is actually fairly hostile.  Back in 2014 when JRP leader 橋下徹 (Hashimoto) was still governor of 大阪(Osaka), 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) led a series of protests against Korean language schools which seems to be funded by DPRK.  The government of 大阪(Osaka) indicated that the speeches 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) gave bordered on hate speech and threatened to prosecute 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) on those grounds.  This led to a public spat between 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) and Hashimoto which led to a publicly televised debate between the two (see youtube link which has 4.2 million views) 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACRxHAC-tyg&t=91s

The debate led to two near incidents of Hashimoto and 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) going to blows within the first 8 minutes and the debate ended after 8 minutes with Hashimoto walking out the door.  The entire "debate" was pretty funny. 

On the issues I think as long as the government is not paying for it the local Koreans should be allowed to have their own Korean language schools if they are willing to pay for it themselves.  On the other hand I agree with 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) in that I reject the notion of hate speech.  There might be acts of violence which of course would cross the line but 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) should be able to say anything he wants up to the point of actually committing physical violence.   

LDP made it official that it will not run a candidate in the Tokyo governor race.   I guess in a few days it will come out to back Koike.  This sort of flexibility and ability to contain conflict is one of the main reasons why the LDP continues to dominate Japanese politics.  Koike was and still is a de facto LDP rebel that tried to take down Abe and the LDP back in 2017.   Despite this the LDP overall is not emotional about it and are taking political calculated steps on what is best for LDP as an organization on the long run despite clear personal hostility between key members of the Tokyo LDP and Koike.  This sort of practical  thinking  also allows the LDP to contain intra-party conflict that allows the party to unite post-election even if there are cases where different factions of the LDP might run against each other in various electoral battles of sorts.   The key LDP rule is "if you win you are LDP" which means as long as you win and can bring political power and leverage to the LDP, all rebels are forgiven and let back into the fold despite what might have been said during the election campaign.

Is there an article that talks about the major factions within the LDP? I'm also curious about Shinjiro Koizumi and whether he seems any closer to becoming LDP leader in the future. The rise of JRP would be interesting to see some competition on the right against the LDP.

Latest polling trends:

Abe cabinet approval clearly falling to below 40%
()

Party support has LDP (green) clearly falling
()

CDP (light blue) also falling but seems to have stabilized while JRP (light green) surge seems real but also have peaked out. KP (orange) has gone but but that is more KP party ID people not hiding in LDP as much than any real increase. 
()

Do google translate on the Japanese version of LDP factions on wiki.

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E6%B0%91%E4%B8%BB%E5%85%9A%E3%81%AE%E6%B4%BE%E9%96%A5

Shinjiro Koizumi  is fairly popular with the both LDP and non-LDP voters but within the LDP seniority has precedence so he will have to wait his turn which will be a while.  One way is for the LDP to be crushed like 2009 and then Shinjiro Koizumi comes in to win the leadership as an outsider and then lead LDP back to power in the next general election.

The way for a LDP politician to become PM is to be from a prominent and power political family but have your father either die early or  retire early.  Japanese political etiquette is that the son cannot enter politics when the father is still active in politics.  So if your father is active a long time in active politics you cannot become a MP until you are in your 40s which means by the time you have enough seniority to become head of LDP you will be too old and will have to retire.  But if you father retire (or die) early then you can become MP in your 20s.  Ozawa (who could have become PM), Abe and Shinjiro Koizumi all have this attribute of being elected MP in their 20s.  Ozawa and Abe had their father die early while Shinjiro Koizumi's father became PM fairly early in his life by winning as an outsider in 2001 LDP Prez election so he then retired early letting his son Shinjiro Koizumi  become MP in his 20s.  Given Shinjiro Koizumi was elected MP in 2009 I figure he will be a viable candidate for PM in the mid 2030s.

Only example I can think of in Japanese politics where a father-son duo was in active politics at the same time was 河野洋平(Kōno Yōhei) who was the founder of LDP splinter NLC (1976-1986) and then Prez of LDP during 1993-1995 and his son 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) who is the current LDP Minister of Defense.  The reason there is 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) mostly got elected on his own without support or help from his father's support organization.    As a result during 1996 to 2009 both father and son were MPs at the same time.

河野洋平(Kōno Yōhei)  is only 1 of 2 LDP presidents that did not become PM.  谷垣禎一(Tanigaki Sadakazu) who was head of LDP in 2009-2012 being the other LDP Prez that failed to become PM.  谷垣禎一(Tanigaki Sadakazu)  actually beat out 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) in the 2009 post landslide defeat LDP Prez race.  河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) ran as an anti-establishment candidate and was soundly beaten by  谷垣禎一(Tanigaki Sadakazu).

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-20/top-tokyo-prosecutor-set-to-resign-public-broadcaster-nhk-says-citing-source (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-20/top-tokyo-prosecutor-set-to-resign-public-broadcaster-nhk-says-citing-source)


Kurokawa admitted to playing Majohng for money on two occasions during Japan's state of emergency.

Gambling is illegal in Japan, with some exceptions.

On the JCP, is factionalism rife there as the rest of Japanese parties, or is it a centralized party?

my general impression of the JCP is that by virtue of their ideological isolation they have to be more cohesive than other parties.

Agreed.  JCP these days is really more of a social democratic party than a real Communist party.  The commitment to ideology (other than the Pacifist Constitution) is fairly low when compared to various Communist parties in the world historically.   JCP in many ways represents the Old Social Democratic Left while the new woke Left actually finds itself in CDP.

The best example of this in the 2019 京都(Kyoto) Upper house elections.  LDP CDP and JCP are all running to win the 2 spots.  LDP will clearly win 1 of the 2 spots so the election was really a CDP vs JCP battle for the remaining spot. I was sure that the LDP and KP vote would tactically vote CDP to beat back JCP. But it turns out the CDP candidate is a LGBT activist and is a lesbian.  So despite the non-JCP Center-Left Opposition base being bigger than JCP in  京都(Kyoto)  it seems that more LDP and KP voted tactically for JCP to stop CDP than the other way around.  As much as KP hates JCP their social conservatism lead them to vote JCP to beat back the new woke left. 

In other words JCP is Bernie Sanders and CDP is Kamala Harris.

isn't the JCP pretty wealthy due to their popular newspaper and ultra-loyal supporters constantly paying dues?

The JCP does collect large sums of money but the big chunk of that is taken up by maintaining their partisan newspaper, putting up candidates in as many places as is justifiable  (running in Japanese elections is an expensive proposition due to the many regulations), and popular campaigns they finance (such as the one that targetted the TPP). And they don't even get any money from the outside. No corporate money whatsoever, no foreign funding.
So all this is underwritten by their own supporters.
They have a well-earned reputation for incorruptability.

Bernie Sanders is more “woke” culturally then Kamala Harris though.

What is the SDP then?

Pretty mch the political arm of the Prefecture and Municipal Workers Union, according to what I read. They are also considering merging with the CDP.

Traditionally, the non-communist left, but of course as the JCP is no longer communist in any reasonable sense of the word, that distinction isn't there any more. The SDP is realistically an anti-American-military-base local Ryukyuan party these days and barely wins any support outside of Okinawa. Their main issue has been pacifism/disarmament since the early 00s and was what caused tensions with the DPJ when they were briefly in government after the 2009 election. Outside of some pretty extreme pacifist positions (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_city#Postwar_Japan), they'd fit in quite comfortably with most left-wing parties around the globe.

Tons of money passes through the JCP but a lot of that money traditionally gets burned on deposit-losing (or whatever the equivalent term is in Japanese) campaigns for unwinnable seats, since until the last few years they weren't open to alliances with the non-communist left. (Plus the other expenses TimTurner mentioned.)

They're a quixotic and at times almost cultish party, but, like Tim said, not by any means a corrupt one.

An interesting if somewhat unrelated thing: how much does the bureaucratic regulations surrounding electioneering in Japan (the deposit costs, the limitations on campaigning, etc) contribute to the heavily pro-incumbent political culture of the country?

My understanding is: Enormously so. At the time that Abe first returned to power in 2012 I remember that being commented on as in fact the main reason why the LDP just kept on coming back come what may. Of course, the playing field has become even more structurally favorable to the LDP since then through things like the constant hookups and breakups of the various opposition forces, the persistence of the right-of-center "third pole", and the lurch to the right among younger voters coupled with the lowering of the voting age.

ETA: Incumbents also have various informal means of circumventing the tight campaigning regulations via the koenkai (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koenkai) system that non-incumbents do not. We once had a poster called "koenkai" who, true to form for someone with that username, was an unapologetically pro-establishment evangelist for the administrative state. I think his avatar was R-NH.

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B2%A1%E5%B1%B1%E7%9C%8C%E8%AD%B0%E4%BC%9A
The LDP domination of prefectural assemblies in Chugoku is so complete it's almost absurd.

Funny you mention this.  I just finished an analysis of prefecture elections in Japan over the last cycle where I broke down the seats by prefecture bloc by bloc: LDP+, KP, OPPN (non-JCP Center-Left opposition), TP (Third Pole), and JCP. 

Yes, 中国 (Chugoku) prefectures 鳥取(Tottori), 島根(Shimane), 岡山(Okayama), 広島(Hiroshima), and
山口(Yamaguchi) are very strong with LDP


A very good reason for LDP domination is that in any prefecture election there are more urban districts where the size of the district are 4- member or bigger and my rural districts where it is 2- member or 1- member districts.  In rural districts voting are non-ideological and local community leaders align with LDP given that LDP dominates almost all prefecture assemblies plus the national government.  This plus the FPTP nature of 1- and 2- member districts means that almost all candidates there, especially in rural prefectures, are just battles between different factions within LDP.

I broke out the latest prefecture assembly results between 4- member districts (or very urban 3- member districts) and above and those which are below.  The idea is to break out districts between those that vote ideologically (and have enough winners that it is worth its while for all mainstream blocs to participate) which I call "core seats" and those which voting are based on personal vote for local community leaders (almost all which align with LDP) where the vote share does not really reflect ideological orientation which I call "rural seats"

Lets take the prefecture you picked 岡山(Okayama)

For core seats the vote shares are

  LDP+         KP          LDP++     OPPN       TP           JCP
56.70%    14.45%    71.14%    22.99%    0.73%     5.14%

Seats share in core seats are

  LDP+         KP          LDP++     OPPN       TP           JCP
58.82%    14.71%   73.53%     20.59%   0.00%     5.88%

Which is not a surprise given 4- member and above districts sizes would imply the seat distribution would be quite PR.

For non core rural seats the seat share are

LDP+         OPPN
95.24%      4.76%

Which is a clean sweep by LDP+.

Note that even in core seats the LDP+ vote share far exceeds what the LDP PR vote in 2019 Upper House which took place in the same year as the prefecture election.

I will post complete date by prefecture later but for rural prefectures like  岡山(Okayama) LDP vote share even in core seats well exceeds what it gets in national elections PLUS a clean sweep of the LDP in non core rural seats adds to massive majorities in rural prefectures.

A bunch of polls came out that were dreadful for Abe Cabinet.  Abe Cabinet approval curve now well below 40%

()

Party support have LDP (green) dropping some more
()

CDP (light blue) heading back up along with JCP (red).  JRP (light green) surge dropping off a bit
()

The worse being Mainichi poll which had Abe cabinet approval crashing to 27% and opposition rising to a record 64%
()

Same poll also have bad number for LDP in term of party support

LDP    24.5 (-5.6)
KP        3.7 (-0.8 )
JRP    11.3 (+0.3)
PNHK   0.7 (-0.6)
DPP     1.1 (-0.5)
CDP   11.8 (+3.0)
RS      1.3 (-0.5)
SDP    1.0 (+0.2)
JCP     6.6 (+1.6)

With CDP and JCP making major gains and LDP-KP dropping back a lot while JRP keeping its recent surge in support.

This is realated to the latest Abe scandal
"Japanese prosecutor seen close to Abe quits in gambling scandal"

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/05/1bab67645e9a-urgent-top-prosecutor-intends-to-resign-over-gambling-scandal.html

This is a pretty sad scandal.  All he did was to play mahjong for money. What is the big deal..

Yep, Chuugoku is currently one of the LDP heartlands (and I think it has been for a while now). Abe himself is from the Shimonoseki area at the western tip of Honshu.

It seems the reason the Japanese prosecutor scandal hit Abe so hard is because he was up for aged based mandatory retirement earlier this year but his retirement was delayed.  He is a well known crony of Abe.  Then Abe tried to bundle a new legal change increasing the mandatory retirement age for prosecutors into an economic relief package and then it came out that the Abe friend Japanese prosecutor was caught playing mahjong for money.  Ok.  I still think this is overblown and on the long run Abe will survive this but I guess this scandal has a bit more meat then I thought.

()

Chart of Abe Cabinet approval (red) and LDP support (green).  This current crisis seems worse for Abe than the Spring 2018 and Summer 2015 crisis period and at par with Summer 2017 crisis which was only resolved with a snap election which triggered the DP implosion and recovery of Abe.

Wouldn’t a snap election be an awful move PR-wise?

It would.  Bear in mind the 2017 Abe maneuver worked only because DP was in the middle of imploding even as his support was falling.  The divided nature of the opposition gave him the chance to recover his authority by calling and winning a mid-term election.  And that only really worked because of the collapse of DP AND low turnout triggered by a hurricane on the weekend of the election. 

This time around if a hypothetical a mid-term election would still return a LDP-KP majority but LDP-KP will for sure lose ground relative to 2017 and not help restore the authority of Abe.  His best option still has to be to wait it out and hope that other news, like recovery from the virus, take hold over the current scandals.

()

Aoki index since Abe came to power in late 2012.  Aoki index is (PM approval + Support of the ruling part) which came from 青木の法則 (Aoki's law).  青木 幹雄 (Aoki Mikio) was a general secretary of the LDP back in the late 1990s can came up with this index to measure support for the current ruling regime.

The general rule of thumb is that an  Aoki index of below 60 would mean certain election defeat (although LDP bloc managed to win a narrow majority in 2000 on an Aoki index of around 50 due to split opposition while Abe lost the 2007 Upper House elections with Aoki index of 69.8 due to united opposition) and usually there would be pressure for the PM to resign to make way for someone more popular.  Abe came close to this in the Summer of 2017 and is now beginning to testing that threshold.

Well in many ways JCP is more "woke" than CDP in paper but JCP does not focus on that topic to attract votes but instead focuses on old Socialist pacifist issues to attract votes.  I feel Sanders does the same. On the other hand CDP tend to try to attract urban women middle class vote focus more on "woke" type issues.  BTW, RS is trying to muscle their way into this vote cutting into the CDP vote which clearly took place back in the 2019 Upper House elections. 

If seems the DPP might be headed for a split.  There are talk that former DP leader 前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) might lead his faction to merge with the JRP.  前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) is coming out in favor of the JRP Osaka Metropolitan plan.   DPP source say that there are divisions within the party  on an alliance with JCP along with CDP which is leading to fissures.  With the surge in JRP support recently the 前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) Rightist faction within the DPP now thinks there are electoral benefits into alliance with JRP.  It is not clear a break will necessary take place but DPP clearly is having problems holding its party together. 

Would the rump DPP stick it alone or join the CDP?

Unclear that DPP would even break up.  If it does I would expect DPP would continue as a party.  CDP has a fairly strong culturally Left agenda along with a strong anti-nuclear power stance which runs counter to the more socially conservative pro-nuclear power Rengo union that is the core of DPP.  Rengo is hostile to both JCP and LDP but has accepted a CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP alliance to defeat LDP but would not accept merging into CDP.

沖縄(Okinawa) prefecture elections tomorrow. 63 candidates will fight for 48 seats.  12 seats have already been elected due to the number of candidates not exceeding the number of MLA elected in said district.  So far for all 12 there is no change in partisan character (LDP-KP vs JRP vs non-JCP center-left vs JCP) except for KP not running in one district and the LDP candidate getting elected instead.

Relative to 2016, LDP-KP will run the same number of candidates although instead of 22 LDP 4 KP in 2016 it will now be 24 LDP 2 KP.  KP which takes a neutral stance on the base issues feels the squeeze of polarization and under the KP rule of only running when there is a 99% chance of winning withdrew 2 candidates letting the LDP to try to win instead.  LDP-KP won 19 seats last time and most likely are hoping to keep their numbers the same.

The anti-base non-JCP Center-Left opposition will run 27 candidates versus 33 in 2016.  In 2016 it was clear that LDP-KP took a hammering in terms of vote share there seat loss was minor due to over-nomination by the anti-base pro-Governor bloc.  They won 21 seats in 2016 and this time they are going to be conservative to try to build on their majority.   

The JCP will have 7 candidates just like 2016 where they won 6.  They are hoping win 7 this time.  The seat they lost in 2016 was in 糸満市(Itoman City) where it was a 3 way race for 2 seats with the vote share between LDP, pro-governor anti-base AO, and JCP being very close.  JCP will want to try to win this seat either from LDP or AO.

JRP ran 4 candidates in 2016 winning 2 and this time the 2 JRP MLAs will run as pro-JRP independents.  JRP, like KP, takes a neutral stance on the base issue but have a slight lean toward of being anti-base.  Anyhow given polarization on the base issue JRP clearly is being squeezed so their hope this time is just to hold on two the 2 seats.  There is one more Third pole independent in the race that seems to take a Right wing but anti-base position but most likely will not win a relevant number of votes.     
 
Overall the anti-base Center-left and JCP alliance are hoping to increase their majority and this time seems well coordinated unlike 2016 to try to take down the number of LDP seats.  I suspect LDP might end up cannibalizing some of the JRP vote and take down 1 of the JRP incumbents along the way.

The main risk for the LDP is in 那覇市(Naha city) district where 11 MLAs will be elected.  In 2016 LDP nominated 4 candidates and won 3 while KP nominated 2 candidates and won both (as expected.)   But the Center-Left non-JCP anti-base bloc nominated 8 and only won 3 (JCP winning 2 and JRP winning 1).  

This time around KP only nominated 1 so LDP nominated 5 but 2 other pro-LDP candidates are running and the Center-Left non-JCP anti-base bloc will only nominate 5 along with JCP and JRP nominating their 2 and 1 incumbents.  There is a real chance of a LDP wipe out unless LDP vote is distributed well and the Center-Left non-JCP anti-base bloc vote is distributed poorly.  

My current projections are (change from 2016 results)

LDP             16 (+1)
KP                2 (-2)
JRP               1 (-1)
Center-Left  23 (+2)
JCP               6 (--)

The LDP could have some upside here in this projection if they can coordinate 那覇市(Naha city) vote well AND steal a seat in one of the other smaller districts where they came close to winning in 2016.

This election will be a test of the continued salience of the base issue which it clearly has been since 2014.

It seems that a brewing scandal in 広島(Hiroshima) is about to explode.  Lower house LDP MP 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) who is known to be close to Abe it seems will be charged soon with vote buying in the 2019  広島(Hiroshima) Upper House election for his wife 河井案里(Kawai Anri) who was one of the 2 LDP candidates and won. 

The entire  広島(Hiroshima)  Upper House race always seems fishy to enemies of Abe within the LDP. The 広島(Hiroshima) district elects 2 members and has always been shared between the LDP and the Center-Left Opposition with 1 each.  The LDP incumbent up for re-election in 2019 was known not to be  on good terms with Abe.   The LDP high command decided to run 2 candidates in 2019 pointing to the 2016 results

LDP      49.76%    elected
DP       23.15%     elected
JRP      13.82%
JCP       7.75%
PJK       2.47%

and said "Hey, PJK has since merged into LDP and JRP looks like will not run in 2019, so we should have enough votes to win both seats."  The LDP incumbent was fairly distraught by this but accepted  the LDP high command (aka Abe) decision.

The result ended up being

Center-Left incumbent     32.31% elected
LDP                                28.99% elected (河井案里(Kawai Anri)) 
LDP incumbent                26.47% (not on good terms with Abe)
JCP                                  6.94%

So while the LDP did a good job distributing its vote, it did not come close to winning both seats.  And along the way, abracadabra, the anti-Abe LDP incumbent was replaced with a pro-Abe MP.

After the election there were rumors that toward the end the LDP knew that they would not win both seats but  the 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) machine decided to go all out to shift votes to 河井案里(Kawai Anri) to ensure that she got elected and not the LDP incumbent.    Then  more evidence came out that the 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) machine might have indulged in vote buying.  In March, secretaries of the political power couple were charged with bribery and now it seems they will close in on both MPs.

This will not look good for Abe who has to hope it stops here and do not somehow have LDP high command implicated.

Voting in progress in Okinawa prefecture elections and should end soon.  Turnout so far is well below 2016 levels given the virus situation.  Should be good news for LDP but also JCP 

Exit polls are rumored to say that LDP-KP has failed to win a majority which is not a surprise.  Now it is about the size of the anti-base majority.

With about half the vote in LDP and JRP are out-preforming.  The anti-base bloc of Center-Left plus JCP will retain majority but most likely will lose a seat or two versus gaining on LDP-KP and JRP.

With only seats in 那覇市(Naha city) not called it is so far

LDP             17
KP                2
JRP               1
Center-Left  16
JCP              7

With 5 left to call they are most likely going to be LDP 2 JRP 1 Center-Left 2

All votes counted.  LDP-KP gained 2 seats from 2016

                       Contest    Win    Vote share
LDP                     25         19        36.50%
KP                        2           2          6.04%
JRP                       2           2         3.93%
Center-Left          28         18        41.64%
JCP                      7            7        11.89%

Back in 2016 it was

                       Contest    Win    Vote share
LDP                     23         15        34.39%
KP                        4           4          6.26%
JRP                       4           2          5.26%
Center-Left          32         21        43.61%
JCP                      7            6        10.46%

Turnout mainly fell in urban areas which indicates the decline of the salience of the base issue. LDP's base held up in rural areas and LDP effectively allocated its votes to maximize its seat count. JRP vote shifted to LDP as expected while KP (taking into account that it ran less candidates) and JCP vote share went up due to lower turnout.

In the end, in 那覇市(Naha city) , the sole KP candidate won more than enough votes for 2 KP candidates to win had it been split evenly.  So the KP move of nominating one candidate versus two the last few cycles was overly cautious allowing the LDP to pick up an extra seats.  Of course the KP only plays if it is sure thing.  The KP, and everyone else,  under-estimated how many of the anti-base opposition vote would flow to the son of the deceased anti-base governor who died in Aug 2018.  It seems there was a massive sympathy vote for the ex-governor son lower the threshold for winning a seat and most likely costing the anti-base Center-Left bloc one seat. 

Abe cabinet approval curve stabilizes

()

NHK exit poll of Okinawa Prefecture election has Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval at 29/71,  This means the local LDP-KP way outperformed the Abe cabinet level of support.

Now that the Okinawa prefecture election is over, other than Tokyo which will be held in June 2021, the 2019-2021 local election cycle is pretty much over.  Now would be a good time to post some more data which allows us to do apples-to-apples comparisons between prefectures.

The core problem is for many districts (especially 1- and 2-) not enough candidates run so no election is held.  Also in many rural districts voting is based on clientelism with all local politicians are from different factions of the LDP.  Both these factors will skew both the vote share and seat share results.

I looked at this problem and solved it this way.  I broke all districts into two types: a) 4- member district or larger along with some urbanized 3- member districts where almost all the time it is contested, voting is more likely to be based on ideological grounds with KP, Third Pole, and JCP candidates often in the mix b) rural districts where voting is much less likely to be on ideological grounds but on clientelism with many of these districts uncontested or battles between LDP factions.

The core districts should give a good sense of local election vote share (with an more urban bias or course.)   The core district seat share should mostly match vote share since with most of these districts 4- member or larger you would expect the seats share to be more PR.
 
As before the blocs are LDP+ (LDP, pro-LDP independents, LDP rebels), KP (in rare cases KP backed independents), Center-Left (non-JCP Center-Left candidates), Third Pole (non-LDP Center-Right candidates including parties JRP TPFA etc etc), JCP.  LDP++ is LDP+ plus KP since in almost all cases KP is allied with LDP.

Core district vote share by prefecture

                                               Center    Third
Pref     LDP+       KP      LDP++   Left       Pole       JCP
北海道 42.24% 15.03% 57.27% 30.26%  0.68%  11.79% Hokkaido
青森    48.52% 10.18% 58.70% 32.50%  0.00%   8.81%  Aomori
岩手    21.89%  2.65%  24.55% 57.17%  9.77%   8.52%  Iwate
宮城    41.15% 12.84% 53.98% 26.78%  4.62%  14.62% Miyagi
秋田    51.69%  5.23%  56.92% 36.41%  0.00%   6.67%  Akita
山形    51.65%  4.90%  56.55% 34.86%  0.00%   8.59%  Yamagata
福島    47.43% 11.91% 59.34% 28.20%  0.00%  12.46% Fukushima
茨城    45.52% 18.19% 63.71% 24.75%  0.00%  11.34% Ibaraki
栃木    55.34% 11.55% 66.89% 20.32%  5.58%   7.21%  Tochigi
群馬    54.87% 11.69% 66.56% 25.99%  0.00%   7.45%  Gunma
埼玉    35.15% 22.80% 57.95% 25.80%  0.82%  15.43% Saitama
千葉    40.79% 17.10% 57.90% 27.69%  2.07%  12.35% Chiba
神奈川 44.32%  9.13%  53.45% 31.67%  2.88%  12.00% Kanagawa
山梨    50.66% 12.94% 63.59% 23.02%  0.00%  13.39% Yamanashi
東京    22.07% 17.76% 39.83% 10.16% 35.35% 14.16% Tokyo
新潟    49.05% 10.17% 59.22% 30.84%  0.00%   9.94%  Niigata
富山    71.04%  6.75%  77.79% 12.99%  1.87%   7.22%  Toyama
石川    68.96%  6.95%  75.91% 20.49%  0.00%   3.52%  Ishikawa
福井    65.21%  5.73%  70.93% 25.51%  0.00%   3.56%  Fukui
長野    37.96% 16.45% 54.41% 26.49%  4.85%  14.25% Nagano
岐阜    51.03% 12.80% 63.83% 24.36%  0.00%  11.80% Gifu
静岡    46.36% 16.83% 63.19% 30.32%  0.00%   6.49%  Shizuoka
愛知    42.65% 13.04% 55.68% 29.13%  5.01%  10.17% Aichi
三重    41.92%  9.14%  51.06% 41.39%  0.00%   7.54%  Mie
滋賀    51.65%  6.24%  57.89% 29.07%  0.00%  13.04% Shiga
京都    35.60% 14.10% 49.70% 18.85%  6.28%  25.16% Kyoto
大阪    16.75% 15.69% 32.44% 10.73% 46.40% 10.42% Osaka
兵庫    36.50% 16.67% 53.17% 21.65% 12.99% 12.18% Hyōgo
奈良    42.41% 13.51% 55.92% 19.91% 12.84% 11.34% Nara
和歌山 39.89% 19.92% 59.80% 22.71%  7.11%  10.38% Wakayama
鳥取    50.05% 15.94% 65.99% 25.17%  1.57%   7.01%  Tottori
島根    63.06%  9.84%  72.90% 19.85%  0.00%   6.82%  Shimane
岡山    56.70% 14.45% 71.14% 22.99%  0.73%   5.14%  Okayama
広島    54.77% 10.71% 65.49% 26.35%  4.06%   4.10%  Hiroshima
山口    59.78% 14.47% 74.24% 17.03%  1.88%   6.85%  Yamaguchi
徳島    55.46%  9.70%  65.16% 21.96%  0.00%  12.88% Tokushima
香川    53.12% 12.36% 65.47% 25.54%  0.00%   8.98%  Kagawa
愛媛    52.62%  9.14%  61.77% 19.02% 14.93%  4.29%  Ehime
高知    32.29% 19.02% 51.31% 27.84%  0.00%  20.85% Kōchi
福岡    48.41% 18.91% 67.32% 25.72%  0.23%   6.73%  Fukuoka
佐賀    54.92% 13.45% 68.37% 22.33%  0.00%   9.31%  Saga
長崎    52.77% 11.70% 64.46% 29.39%  0.00%   6.15%  Nagasaki
熊本    60.73% 14.24% 74.98% 19.59%  0.00%   5.44%  Kumamoto
大分    41.17% 15.29% 56.45% 35.69%  0.00%   7.75%  Ōita
宮崎    53.14% 17.22% 70.36% 24.71%  0.00%   4.93%  Miyazaki
鹿児島 53.90% 10.23% 64.13% 22.51%  9.95%   3.15%  Kagoshima
沖縄    31.30%  8.97%  40.27% 42.14%  5.83%  11.75% Okinawa
Total   41.01% 14.05% 55.06% 23.74% 10.29% 10.82%



Core district seat share by prefecture

                                               Center    Third
Pref     LDP+       KP      LDP++   Left       Pole       JCP
北海道 43.48% 17.39% 60.87% 34.78%  0.00%   4.35%  Hokkaido
青森    42.86% 10.71% 53.57% 35.71%  0.00%  10.71% Aomori
岩手    16.67%  4.17%  20.83% 54.17% 12.50% 12.50% Iwate
宮城    45.45% 12.12% 57.58% 27.27%  3.03%  12.12% Miyagi
秋田    52.00%  4.00%  56.00% 40.00%  0.00%   4.00%  Akita
山形    47.37%  5.26%  52.63% 36.84%  0.00%  10.53% Yamagata
福島    46.88% 12.50% 59.38% 28.13%  0.00%  12.50% Fukushima
茨城    46.67% 20.00% 66.67% 20.00%  0.00%  13.33% Ibaraki
栃木    59.09% 13.64% 72.73% 18.18%  4.55%   4.55%  Tochigi
群馬    55.56% 11.11% 66.67% 25.93%  0.00%   7.41%  Gunma
埼玉    25.00% 28.57% 53.57% 28.57%  0.00%  17.86% Saitama
千葉    42.11% 21.05% 63.16% 28.95%  2.63%   5.26%  Chiba
神奈川 40.00% 14.00% 54.00% 36.00%  0.00%  10.00% Kanagawa
山梨    55.56% 11.11% 66.67% 22.22%  0.00%  11.11% Yamanashi
東京    17.78% 24.44% 42.22%  4.44%  33.33% 20.00% Tokyo
新潟    47.06% 11.76% 58.82% 35.29%  0.00%   5.88%  Niigata
富山    77.78%  5.56%  83.33% 11.11%  0.00%   5.56%  Toyama
石川    66.67%  8.33%  75.00% 20.83%  0.00%   4.17%  Ishikawa
福井    61.90%  4.76%  66.67% 28.57%  0.00%   4.76%  Fukui
長野    40.00% 16.67% 56.67% 26.67%  3.33%  13.33% Nagano
岐阜    53.85% 15.38% 69.23% 23.08%  0.00%   7.69%  Gifu
静岡    44.00% 20.00% 64.00% 32.00%  0.00%   4.00%  Shizuoka
愛知    46.67% 20.00% 66.67% 30.00%  3.33%   0.00%  Aichi
三重    43.33%  6.67%  50.00% 46.67%  0.00%   3.33%  Mie
滋賀    44.44%  7.41%  51.85% 33.33%  0.00%  14.81% Shiga
京都    35.29% 14.71% 50.00% 17.65%  5.88%  26.47% Kyoto
大阪    18.52% 25.93% 44.44%  7.41%  40.74%  7.41%  Osaka
兵庫    37.78% 20.00% 57.78% 20.00% 13.33%  8.89%  Hyōgo
奈良    47.37% 15.79% 63.16% 15.79% 10.53% 10.53% Nara
和歌山 40.00% 20.00% 60.00% 26.67%  6.67%   6.67%  Wakayama
鳥取    52.38% 14.29% 66.67% 28.57%  0.00%   4.76%  Tottori
島根    65.00% 10.00% 75.00% 15.00%  0.00%  10.00% Shimane
岡山    58.82% 14.71% 73.53% 20.59%  0.00%   5.88%  Okayama
広島    58.14% 13.95% 72.09% 23.26%  2.33%   2.33%  Hiroshima
山口    61.76% 14.71% 76.47% 17.65%  0.00%   5.88%  Yamaguchi
徳島    50.00% 11.11% 61.11% 27.78%  0.00%  11.11% Tokushima
香川    52.63% 10.53% 63.16% 26.32%  0.00%  10.53% Kagawa
愛媛    58.82%  5.88%  64.71% 14.71% 17.65%  2.94%  Ehime
高知    33.33% 20.00% 53.33% 20.00%  0.00%  26.67% Kōchi
福岡    47.22% 22.22% 69.44% 25.00%  0.00%   5.56%  Fukuoka
佐賀    58.82% 11.76% 70.59% 17.65%  0.00%  11.76% Saga
長崎    55.56% 11.11% 66.67% 29.63%  0.00%   3.70%  Nagasaki
熊本    57.14% 14.29% 71.43% 23.81%  0.00%   4.76%  Kumamoto
大分    27.78% 16.67% 44.44% 44.44%  0.00%  11.11% Ōita
宮崎    52.17% 13.04% 65.22% 26.09%  0.00%   8.70%  Miyazaki
鹿児島 56.00% 12.00% 68.00% 20.00%  8.00%   4.00%  Kagoshima
沖縄    33.33%  6.06%  39.39% 39.39%  6.06%  15.15% Okinawa
Total   40.20% 17.08% 57.27% 23.26%  9.23%  10.23%


As expected the core district seat share mostly map pretty cleanly onto the core district vote share with the exception that KP always outperforms in seat share at the expense of everyone else since the KP vote is always distributed optimally to win every seat it contests.

For non-core seats I only computed seats share since a vote share computation is irrelevant since in many cases the seats are not contested.


Non-Core district seat share by prefecture

                                               Center    Third
Pref     LDP+       KP      LDP++   Left       Pole       JCP
北海道 61.11%  0.00%  61.11%  37.04% 0.00%  1.85%  Hokkaido
青森    95.00%  0.00%  95.00%   5.00%  0.00%  0.00%  Aomori
岩手    41.67%  0.00%  41.67%  50.00% 8.33%  0.00%  Iwate
宮城    69.23%  0.00%  69.23%  23.08% 3.85%  3.85%  Miyagi
秋田    77.78%  0.00%  77.78%  22.22% 0.00%  0.00%  Akita
山形    79.17%  0.00%  79.17%  20.83% 0.00%  0.00%  Yamagata
福島    61.54%  0.00%  61.54%  34.62% 0.00%  3.85%  Fukushima
茨城    91.49%  2.13%  93.62%   6.38%  0.00%  0.00%  Ibaraki
栃木    82.14%  0.00%  82.14%  17.86% 0.00%  0.00%  Tochigi
群馬    86.96%  0.00%  86.96%  13.04% 0.00%  0.00%  Gunma
埼玉    66.15%  1.54%  67.69%  30.77% 0.00%  1.54%  Saitama
千葉    73.21%  0.00%  73.21%  26.79% 0.00%  0.00%  Chiba
神奈川 63.64%  1.82%  65.45%  34.55% 0.00%  0.00%  Kanagawa
山梨    82.14%  0.00%  82.14%  17.86% 0.00%  0.00%  Yamanashi
東京    18.92%  2.70%  21.62%   5.41% 70.27% 2.70%  Tokyo
新潟    69.44%  0.00%  69.44%  30.56% 0.00%  0.00%  Niigata
富山    90.91%  0.00%  90.91%   4.55%  0.00%  4.55%  Toyama
石川    84.21%  0.00%  84.21%  15.79% 0.00%  0.00%  Ishikawa
福井    93.75%  0.00%  93.75%   6.25%  0.00%  0.00%  Fukui
長野    62.96% 14.81% 77.78%  18.52% 0.00%  3.70%  Nagano
岐阜    81.82%  0.00%  81.82%  18.18% 0.00%  0.00%  Gifu
静岡    72.09%  0.00%  72.09%  27.91% 0.00%  0.00%  Shizuoka
愛知    62.50%  0.00%  62.50%  36.11% 1.39%  0.00%  Aichi
三重    61.90%  0.00%  61.90%  38.10% 0.00%  0.00%  Mie
滋賀    52.94%  0.00%  52.94%  47.06% 0.00%  0.00%  Shiga
京都    69.23%  0.00%  69.23%  19.23% 0.00% 11.54% Kyoto
大阪    18.03%  13.11% 31.15%  0.00% 68.85% 0.00%  Osaka
兵庫    63.41%  9.76%  73.17%  17.07% 7.32%  2.44%  Hyōgo
奈良    75.00%  0.00%  75.00%   8.33%  8.33%  8.33%  Nara
和歌山 85.19%  0.00%  85.19%   3.70%  0.00% 11.11% Wakayama
鳥取    71.43%  0.00%  71.43%  28.57% 0.00%  0.00%  Tottori
島根    88.24%  0.00%  88.24%  11.76% 0.00%  0.00%  Shimane
岡山    95.24%  0.00%  95.24%   4.76%  0.00%  0.00%  Okayama
広島    80.95%  0.00%  80.95%  19.05% 0.00%  0.00%  Hiroshima
山口    84.62%  0.00%  84.62%  15.38% 0.00%  0.00%  Yamaguchi
徳島    85.00%  0.00%  85.00%  15.00% 0.00%  0.00%  Tokushima
香川    81.82%  0.00%  81.82%  18.18% 0.00%  0.00%  Kagawa
愛媛    84.62%  0.00%  84.62%   0.00% 15.38% 0.00%  Ehime
高知    77.27%  0.00%  77.27%  18.18% 0.00%  4.55%  Kōchi
福岡    70.59%  3.92%  74.51%  25.49% 0.00%  0.00%  Fukuoka
佐賀    90.48%  0.00%  90.48%   9.52%  0.00%  0.00%  Saga
長崎    89.47%  0.00%  89.47%  10.53% 0.00%  0.00%  Nagasaki
熊本   100.00% 0.00% 100.00%   0.00% 0.00%  0.00%  Kumamoto
大分    72.00%  0.00%  72.00%  28.00% 0.00%  0.00%  Ōita
宮崎    87.50%  0.00%  87.50%  12.50% 0.00%  0.00%  Miyazaki
鹿児島 96.15%  0.00%  96.15%   3.85%  0.00%  0.00%  Kagoshima
沖縄    53.33%  0.00%  53.33%  33.33% 0.00% 13.33% Okinawa
Total   64.26%  2.45%  66.71%  20.93% 11.18% 1.17%

As expected, there are massive LDP blowouts in many rural prefectures where the various LDP factions monopolize local political talent and other parties do not bother running which reinforces this phenomenon.    

Some takeaways from the core vote share/seat share and non-core seat share by prefecture

1) A weight by population average core vote share calculation has LDP at around 41% which is clearly higher than the typical PR vote share in recent national elections of around 35% and that is when this number is derived with an urban bias which should work against the LDP.  This shows the extent of the local talent edge the LDP has even in urban areas.  This over-performance seems to be at the expense of the Center-Left in urban areas and Third pole in rural areas.

2) Local elections are where KP tend to focus its effort relative to national elections.  KP is always fearful that the Soka Gakkai which KP is based on might get banned.  Usually these types of decisions are made by prefecture governments ergo that is where the KP puts its effort into.  The fact that KP gets on average 17% of the core seats speaks to the strength of the KP at the prefecture level.  KP seems especially strong in dense urban areas

3) KP only runs in seats it has a 99% of chance of winning ergo they almost never contest in non-core seats since the number of members elected is too small for the KP vote share to ensure a victory.  One large exception is 長野(Nagano) where it seems a faction of the LDP has gone over to KP and runs as a KP backed independents in addition to caucusing with KP.  KP is also very strong in 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) where it has a de facto understanding with JRP and LDP that they are able to wins seats even in non-core districts.
 
4) Looking at non-core districts one sees that in rural prefectures the LDP share of of the non-core seats are often higher than 80% and even sometimes above 90%.  In 熊本(Kumamoto) it is an amazing 100%.  In 東京(Tokyo) and 大阪(Osaka) TPFA and JRP swept aside LDP in these seats.  TPFA mostly did this due to its alliance with KP in the 2017 elections while what JRP achieved in  大阪(Osaka) is truely impressive as it has taken over the local leadership talent pool from the LDP.  In 2021 東京(Tokyo) elections it is clear that TPFA will lose a lot of ground to both LDP and CDP.

5) Looking at non-core districts where LDP do not completely dominate pretty much maps to the competitive prefectures at the national level.  Namely:北海道(Hokkaido), 岩手(Iwate), 福島(Fukushima), 埼玉   (Saitama), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 長野(Nagano), 愛知(Aichi), 三重(Mie), 滋賀(Shiga), 兵庫(Hyōgo), and 沖縄(Okinawa).    In some prefectures the main opponent to LDP ends not being the Center-Left at the local level like: 京都(Kyoto) (JCP at par with the Center-Left), 富山(Toyama) (JCP at par with the Center-Left), 奈良(Nara) (JRP at part with the Center-Left), 和歌山(Wakayama) (JCP and JRP at par with the Center-left), and 愛媛(Ehime) (JRP has take over the opposition space).

6) In rural prefectures the number of seats in non-core areas are relatively large and since the LDP sweeps those seats you get some massive LDP majorities in the more rural prefectures overall.  A core seat analysis of those prefectures still gives the LDP a massive vote share plurality and in some cases majority (the LDP vote share even in core districts in 富山(Toyama), 石川(Ishikawa), and 福井(Fukui) are a massive >65%) but the gap is not as massive and closer to the true level of LDP support at the national level.
 
7) There are some prefectures where it is competitive nationally but the LDP in non-core districts still dominate which speaks to the power of the local LDP machine.  They are:宮城(Miyagi), 秋田(Akita), 山形(Yamagata), 千葉(Chiba), 新潟(Niigata) and 大分(Ōita).  In all these cases the level of domination of the LDP in non-core districts is significant but not as massive as true LDP strongholds.

where would you categorize Aomori Prefecture here? I always got the sense it was more LDP than Tohoku overall.

If you look at my data table Aomori is at par with the rest of Tokoku in terms of core area vote share but has a massive LDP advantage (95%) in the non-core seat share which is well ahead of other Tokoku prefectures.  So this means that for local elections urban Aomori is a lot like other urban Tokoku prefecture urban areas but rural Aomori is a lot more pro-LDP than the rest of Tokoku. This sort of makes sense as rural Aomori is very economically backward where clientelism and the need for central government subsides would be critical with the result of LDP being the only game in town.   

While the Abe cabinet approval levels seems to have stopped falling they are still at a fairly low, but not disastrously low, levels.  The problem for Abe is that there are going to be compulsions to have a lower house election soon.  The next lower house election is not due until Oct 2021 but the KP made it clear that the lower house election CANNOT be close to the 2021 June Tokyo Prefecture election.  For the KP the Tokyo Prefecture election is the most important election (more so than any national election) and KP will throw all its cash into that election and will be running on empty if the lower house elections is held close to that.  For that to work Abe has to get the lower house election out of the way this year or very early next year.  Problem is with the virus not really going away and Abe getting hit with scandals a lower house election now would for sure mean significant losses of seats although there should be no danger to a LDP-KP majority.  Abe has to hope his approval rate rises over the next couple of months.

Tokyo gov election will be July 5th. 

Incumbent Koike will, of course, run for re-election and win comfortably.  TPFA which is her party will of course back her along with LDP and KP despite hostility toward Koike from the Tokyo LDP.

Other key candidates are
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) - ran in 2012 and 2014 with support from SDP-JCP but this time will be a joint Center-Left opposition candidate CDP-SDP-JCP (DPP is not much of a factor in Tokyo and seems will be sitting this one out)
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) - JRP candidate
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) - This not for sure but RS leader might run
立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) - Perennial protest candidate and leader of PNHK will most likely run
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) - leader of nationalist far right JFP who ran in 2016
Someone from HRP will of course run

I got a feeling マック赤坂(Makku Akasaka), leader of the Smile Party (sort of the Japan's Official Monster Raving Loony Party) might run just like in 2012 2014 and 2016 but in 2019 he was elected to a District council in one of Tokyo's districts so he might not run.  Even if he does he will be a fringe candidate just like HRP.  If PNHK runs they will eat up most of the protest vote anyway leaving very little for HRP and Smile Party.

Had the race been competitive I think CDP-SDP-JCP would try to work out something with RS for an united front.  Since Koike is going to win by a solid margin the Center-Left opposition choose to just hae a somewhat free-for-all.  Key question this election is will Koike cross 50% in this crowded field.

It seems just like 静岡(Shizuoka) 4th district by-election back in April, it seems PNHK will run a troll candidate and not its leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi).  What they will do is to run a candidate also named 小池百合子(Koike Yuriko.) 

Since the voter has to write in the candidate name on the ballot what the election commission will most likely do is to ask the vote to put in the age of the correct 小池百合子(Koike Yuriko) they want to vote for.  Since governor Koike will be 67 on election day those that want to vote for her would have to write "小池百合子 67" on the ballot and those that want to vote for the PNHK 小池百合子(Koike Yuriko) will write "小池百合子 <another age>".  Anyone writing just "小池百合子" or  "小池百合子 <not 67 or the age of the other Koike" will be allocated on a pro rated basis between the two candidates.

Looks like there will be 22 candidates for the Tokyo governor election which is 1 more than the 2016 record 21 number of candidates.

PNHK in the end nominated its leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) versus trying to have a troll candidate with the same name as Koike.

So main candidates are

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) - incumbent and backed by KP-Part of Tokyo LDP-Rengo
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) - ran in 2012 2014 backed by CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) - leader of RS
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) - JRP candidate

In the end the anti-Koike branch of LDP refused to back Koike so LDP high command decided not formally come out in favor of Koike but left it as free vote for LDP supporters.  Part of the Tokyo LDP will back Koike.  Note that Rengo union which is the heart of DPP will also back Koike which means in de facto terms DPP will also support Koike and breaking with CDP-SDP-JCP.

Significant minor candidates are

立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) - leader of PNHK
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) - ran in 2016 leader of JFP

PNHK will also run a couple of other candidates, it seems, to capture as much of the protest vote as possible.  HRP and Smile party will also run a candidate each to win some protest votes.

Koike will most likely win a majority of the vote and what will be interesting is the 3 way battle for second between 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji), 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō), and 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)

First poll in Tokyo governor race (phrased in very vague terms as always) is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) (JP-part of LDP-Rengo) well ahead with 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS) second with 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP) and 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP) in trouble. Around 40% are undecided

By party support

                        Koike      Yamamoto     Utsunomiya     Uno
LDP                     60%         10%                                10%
KP                       70%       
JRP                                                                           70%
CDP                     20%        30%             30%
JCP                                     10%             80%
Independent        30%         30%               5%           10%

If I make a random guess that partisan ID will be LDP 35% KP 5% JRP 6% CDP 12% JCP 6% Independents 31% (many KP voters ID as LDP to hide their identity, while lots of Center-Left voters identify as Independent)

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) (JP-part of LDP-Rengo)                 36%
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                          17%
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                               11%
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP) 10%

Key takeaway is that Koike has the LDP-KP vote locked up and is able to appeal to CDP and independent voters and is poised to potentially get above 50% of the vote.  山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)  is beating out 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP) for the non-JCP Center-Left vote. 

I suspect 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)  underestimated here so it could be that 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP) will get pushed to 4th place.

毎日(mainichi) poll on Tokyo governor has massive Koike lead

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) (JP-part of LDP-Rengo)                    51%
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP)    10%
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                              8%
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                                   7%
立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) (PNHK)                                        2%

With Koike headed toward a majority in a fairly crowded field.

It seems that there is quite a lot of undecideds?

毎日(mainichi) poll on Tokyo governor by gender

                                            Overall      Male     Female
小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)            51            46         60
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)    10            10         10
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)           8            10           4
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)                 7              8           5
立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi)        2              3           0
Other                                        8            10           5
Undecided                               14            13         14

Large gender gap in favor of Koike.

There seems to be high disinterest with 10% going to protest candidates and another 14% undecided/do not care.   Part of it has to be with the fact that Koike will for certain win and win with a landslide.  

The rule of thumb in Japan governor elections is that if an incumbent is running with LDP support there is zero chance the incumbent is defeated.  If there is an incumbent running with a strong LDP candidate then it is 60/40 that incumbent will win.

日経(Nikkei) survey are short on details other than:

1)  小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-part of LDP-Rengo)   with massive lead
2) 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-SDP-Greens-NSPJ-JCP)  and 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS) in battle for second
3) 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP) in 4th and 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) (PNHK) 5th

which matches the 毎日(mainichi) poll.

In fact knowing what I know about Japanese polling I bet both news outlets got the same pollster to do the polling.  The way polls work is one pollster collect a massive sample and hand own the raw data to each media outlet (for a price) and it is up to the media outlet to do they own weighing by demographic variables leading to different results. 

Some weekend Tokyo Governor polls

They do not give numbers but reading descriptions one gets the relative distance between the various candidates.

毎日(Mainichi): 小池(koike)>>>山本(Yamamoto )>小野(Ono)>宇都宮(Utsunomiya)
読売(Yomiuri): 小池(Koike)>>>宇都宮(Utsunomiya)>>小野(Ono)>山本(Yamamoto)
共同(Kyodo): 小池(Koike)>>>宇都宮(Utsunomiya)>山本(Yamamoto)>>小野(Ono)
朝日(Asahi): 小池(Koike)>>>宇都宮(Utsunomiya)>山本(Yamamoto)>小野(Ono)
日経(Nikkei): 小池(Koike)>>>宇都宮(Utsunomiya)>山本(Yamamoto)>>>小野(Ono) [From last week]

As I though It is Koike way ahead with the other 3 major candidates in a 3 way battle for 2nd.  It does seem that 宇都宮(Utsunomiya) has the edge all things equal in the battle for second place.

The 共同(Kyodo) poll indicated a massive 小池(Koike) lead with her taking 70% of LDP votesrs, 90% of KP voters, 60% of independents, and 60% CDP voters.  If so that should translate into around 68% of the vote which would be a huge lead. 

中日(Chunichi) poll on Tokyo governor race. (note once again that all these polls have the same source of raw polling data with each media house doing their own weighting)

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) wins 70%-80% of LDP and KP vote, 40%-60% of CDP DPP JRP vote, 60% of the independent vote and 20% of the JCP vote.

宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) wins 20% of the CDP vote and 60% of the JCP vote.

山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) wins 60% of the RS vote

小野(Ono) wins 10% of the JRP vote

If one makes some assumptions on how the rest of the vote is split (and being generous to 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) and 小野(Ono) ) it seems to come out to something like

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)         69%
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) 13%
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)        9%
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)              8%

This is not that surprising.  Governor level incumbents usually cruise to re-election with a much bigger margin especially if the LDP machine is behind you (in this case part of the LDP machine.)
 The famous 4 term Tokyo governor 石原 慎太郎(Ishihara Shintarō) who served 1999-2012 won in 1999 with 30.47% of the vote but won 70.21% of the vote in his 2003 re-election campaign.

Still I suspect Koike will not cross 65% in the end given the large number of protest candidates in the field.

The July 12th governor election for 鹿児島(Kagoshima) is an example of the rule "if you win you are LDP"

In 2016 the pro-LDP incumbent since 2004 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) was running for re-election was expecting an easy victory.  But a pro-LDP and anti-nuclear power 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) emerged to challenge 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) with support from various LDP dissidents.   DP-SDP-JCP saw their chance and jumped in to support 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) leading to a shocking upset.

三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (DP-SDP-JCP)   55.5%   
伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (LDP-KP)              44.5%

In office 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) made his peace with the LDP

For 2020 the roles are reversed from with LDP-KP now backing 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) and 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) being the LDP dissent trying to get back into power.  So the race will be 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP) vs 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP-DPP plus a part of the local LDP). 

三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) will cruise to re-election mostly as other candidates backed by JCP and dissident factions of CDP-DPP are also in the race and split the anti-三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) vote.

Tokyo governor election this Sunday

My guess would be

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)         ~3.50 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)  ~0.80 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)       ~0.60 million votes
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)             ~0.55 million votes
Rest                                      ~0.40 million votes

With Koike around 60%

Just like 2016 comedian 後藤輝樹 (Goto Teruki) is also in the fray.

Back in 2016 he dressed up as a WWII general
()

This time around it seems he is going for the vampire look
()

Speaking of Tokyo governor elections one cannot forget the 2007 campaign of Extreme Leftist 外山 恒一(Toyama Kōichi) official election statement.  it is one of a kind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=df7jOd6HcIY

He got around 15K votes or 0.27%

There will be a prefecture assembly by-election also on Sunday for Tokyo 北区(Kita) district.  This will give us a sense of how much TPFA has fallen since 2017 even with Koike at the top of the ticket.  The by-election is necessitated by a TPFA MLA with a YP background going on last year to be elected to the Upper House on a JRP ticket.  

In the fray are LDP (with KP support), CDP (with JCP support), JRP, TPFA, and HNP (LDD splinter and affiliated with PNHK).

All 5 candidates are women

()


Vote share results in the last 4 cycles were

2017 (TPFA landslide) (TPFA took over the YP vote ate deep into LDP JRP and DP vote shares)
TPFA  35.52%
KP     21.74%
JCP    19.14%
LDP   18.36%
DP      5.24%
  
2013 (LDP landslide) (collapse of DPJ turnout with YP and JRP eating into DPJ vote)
LDP   25.87%
KP     21.88%
JCP   19.15%
DPJ   15.30%
YP     10.14%
JRP     7.67%

2009 (DPJ landslide) (massive DPJ turnout surge)
DPJ   42.75%
LDP   20.87%
KP    19.58%
JCP   16.79%

2005 (last "normal" election)
LDP   30.92%
DPJ    26.45%
KP     23.97%
JCP    18.67%

With KP support the LDP is sure to win.  Key question would be the extent of the CDP recovery from the 2017 DP fiasco with JCP vote by winning back the old DPJ vote that went to TPFA and how much JRP eats into the rest of the TPFA vote.

It seems CDP will come in a strong second and JRP will beat out TPFA for forth.  If so even on a day that Koike is at the top of the ticket then this is a sign that in the 2021 Tokyo prefecture elections TPFA will get wiped out with LDP getting KP back as an ally and a CDP surge.  The level of the TPFA meltdown will be more clear by the vote shares each party receives in the by-election.  

There appears also to three other by-elections for the assembly.
Ota ward, Hino City, Kitatama third (Chofu City, Komae City)
https://2020tochijisen.tokyo/byelection/index.html

Yesh, but TPFA is not running in any of them so it is not as interesting as 北区(Kita).

In 日野市(Hino City), a LDP incumbent passed away leading to the by-election.  Back in 2017 it was

TPFA      41.11% (has DPJ background)
LDP       22.27%
JCP        21.10%
DP rebel 15.51%

This time TPFA is not even running which speaks to how weak TPFA has become.  It will be LDP(backed by KP) vs JCP (backed by CDP) and will be an easy LDP win.


In 北多摩(Kitatama) Third in 2017 it was

TPFA        34.17% (DP background)
KP           22.92%
JCP          20.32%
LDP         19.83%
DP rebel     2.76%

This time around it will be LDP(backed by KP) vs JCP (backed by CDP) vs TSN (minor Left).  Again should be an easy win for LDP especially with the Center-Left vote split.  TPFA also failed to even come up with an candidate.


In 大田区 (Ota) back in 2017 it was

TPFA           29.62%
LDP            20.89%
KP              17.94%
JCP             14.52%
JRP               7.22%
DP                5.63%
Minor Right    3.21%
HNP              0.74%

This time around it will be LDP (backed by KP) vs CDP (backed by JCP) vs JRP vs HNP plus two other minor independents.  Not having a TPFA candidate plus KP support also means the LDP should have an easy victory here.

So LDP should be set to sweep all 4 by-election and 北区(Kita) will tell us about what strength TPFA have left.  I suspect TPFA will fall to single digits in 北区(Kita).  If I bad to guess I think 北区(Kita) will be something like

LDP-KP     46
CDP-JCP   30
JRP          14
TPFA          8
HNP           2

Voting will end in about an hour.  It seems turnout is much higher than expected and should reach 56% which is only down from around 59% in 2016.  Most had expected turnout in the 40s.   This should be good for 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) and then 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) at the expense of others.  My guess now is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)         ~3.80 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)  ~0.90 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)       ~0.60 million votes
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)             ~0.55 million votes
Rest                                      ~0.45 million votes

With 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) at slightly over 60% of the vote.

Voting ends. Election called for Koike

()

Exit polls seems to indicate that 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) got around 60% of the vote like I predicted.  It seems that 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) will slightly edge out 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) for 3rd place with 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) in a solid second.  Exit polls seems to mostly match my predictions

()

NHK exit polls seems to have it at

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)             58.5%     or around 3.70 million
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)     14.5%      or around 0.90 million
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)                 10.5%     or around 0.65 million
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)             9.5%     or around 0.60 million
Rest                                            7%       or around 0.45 million    

assuming turnout at around 55%.  Turnout most likely is more like 56% so the vote will be a bit higher than this.  Seems like higher turnout helped 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji)  and 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)

Exit poll also has a massive gender gap in favor of 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) in terms of the women vote.  It seems the CDP/center-left men vote went 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) while the CDP/center-left women vote went 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)

NHK exit polls seems to indicate that 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) won around 53% of the men vote and around 65% of the women vote.

()

NHK exit poll of Tokyo voters

Abe Cabinet support/oppose  39/61

Party support
LDP        33
KP           4
TPFA        1
JRP          4
DPP         1
CDP         7
RS           2
JCP          4
Ind        42

LDP-KP at 37 is not that hot for ruling bloc.  It sort of implies a Tokyo PR vote of around 41% or so which is a swlng of 3% against LDP-KP relative to 2019 Upper House elections and same as 2017 Lower House elections.

Exit poll also show that JFP's 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) beat out PNHK's 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) for 5th place in the battle of protest party leaders. 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) has to run for Tokyo governor in 2016 and most likely have more name recognition in Tokyo.

NHK exit polls indicate that

For LDP vote: 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) won around 77%
For CDP vote: 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) 40%, 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) 30%,  山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  17%
For JCP vote: 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) 67%, 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) 20%,  山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  10%

Amazing that 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) won 20% of the JCP vote and speaks to her cross-party appeal within Tokyo local politics and the power of incumbency. 

Returns from the more rare rural parts of Tokyo shows 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) getting around 85% of the vote there. 

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) stronger with older voters while  山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) and 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) stronger with younger voters.

()

With 3% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)       62.5%    
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                         13.9%          
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                       12.9%    
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                              9.6%
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                           1.1%

Vote still has a rural lean which means 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) has more to fall while 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP) has more to gain.  Mostly matches exit polls.

Rural areas which have finished counting seems to all have 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) at 70%-80% vote share range.

Given the fact that votes are reported threshold at a time (meaning if you hit 1000 votes in a district then they are reported) vote shares for minor candidates are under-counted during the counting process.

With 16% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)      63.1%   
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                         13.5%         
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                       12.3%   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                              9.6%
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                           1.3%

Even in urban districts it seems 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is out-performing 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) a bit.  Exit polls that show 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) slightly ahead of 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) might be wrong and be the other way around which would match my prediction. 

With 47% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)      60.7%   
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                         14.4%         
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                       12.1%   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                            10.4%
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                           1.9%

Turnout estimated to be at 55%

Why does the LDP have a monopoly on elections?

With 73% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)      60.9%   
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                         14.2%         
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                       11.4%   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                            10.5%
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                           2.2%

Turnout estimated to be at 55%

As more urban votes comes in 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) does make slight gains.  The Others vote share is underestimated at this stage given the votes being counted are still mostly those over the 500 or 1000 vote per district threshold.

Exit poll by party support

()

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) swept the KP vote (not a surprise) but also has support in the JRP voters and performed very well with the slightly lean center-left independent vote. 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP) is in the game for 3rd only because of his support of anti-Koike LDP voters.

It is a series of reinforcing trends

1) LDP is ruling part at the center and prefecture level almost all the time
2) prefecture require subsidies from the central government 
3) people often vote for the candidate and not the party at the prefecture level
4) due to need to control subsidies most local level up-and-coming politicians with lcoal support join LDP
5) farm league for LDP at the national level is much stronger than other parties
6) civil servants join LDP given LDP control of the central government 

All these trends reinforce each other.  The way to break LDP is to break it at the prefecture and municipal power once a non-LDP government comes into power at the center.  The 1993-1994 and 2009-2012 non-LDP government were too chaotic and non-functional to even try.

With 95% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)      60.0%     3.521 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                        13.9%      0.817 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                      10.9%      0.639 million votes   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                             9.9%      0.528 million votes
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                          2.7%      0.165 million votes

Turnout estimated to be at 55%

Mostly converging toward my prediction

It does seem I have underestimated 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) although my call that he will beat out 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) defeated even the exit polls

Any info about the by-elections?

LDP won all of them but LDP vote share worse than expected.  JRP over-performed.  Will have to dig up the vote shares and post them later 

In 北多摩(Kitatama) Third by-election it is

LDP-KP     47.67%
TSN          27.72%
JCP-CDP   24.61%

in 2017 it was

TPFA        34.17% (DP background)
KP           22.92%
JCP          20.32%
LDP         19.83%
DP rebel     2.76%

Significant LDP under-performance.  A CDP-TSN-JCP alliance could have won (as long as JCP is not the common candidate)

With 99% of the vote in it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)      60.0%     3.637 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                        13.8%      0.836 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                      10.8%      0.655 million votes   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                           10.0%      0.605 million votes
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                          2.8%      0.170 million votes

Mostly matches my prediction


Both 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) and 小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke)  clearly outperformed.  But I got 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) vote share pretty much on the nose at 60%.

In 大田区 (Ota) by-election it is

LDP-KP        37.44%
JRP             26.89%
CDP-JCP      23.65%
Ind               4.60%
PNHK            3.94%
Ind               3.47%

Back in 2017 it was

TPFA           29.62%
LDP            20.89%
KP              17.94%
JCP             14.52%
JRP               7.22%
DP                5.63%
Minor Right    3.21%
HNP              0.74%

JRP and CDP seems to have picked up most of the TPFA vote from 2017

With pretty much all votes counted it is

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)  (KP-TPFA-Reng-part of LDP)     59.7%      3.661 million votes
宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) (CDP-JCP)                        13.8%      0.844 million votes
山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) (RS)                                     10.7%       0.657 million votes   
小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP)                                          10.0%       0.613 million votes
桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) (JFP)                                         2.9%       0.179 million votes
Rest                                                                             2.9%       0.179 million votes

Compared to my prediction of

So just like over pre-election polls, the incumbent was overestimated and once again just like 2019 Upper house elections 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) was underestimated in exit polls.

北区(Kita) by election

LDP-KP     34.44%
CDP-JCP   23.88%
JRP          22.36%
TPFA        15.29%
PNHK         4.04%

back in 2017 it was

TPFA  35.52%
KP     21.74%
JCP    19.14%
LDP   18.36%
DP      5.24%

LDP and CDP clearly under-performed and JRP over-performed.  TPFA also did not do as badly as expected although the TPFA candidate is a secretary of Koike.  In the end some of the Koike vote must have transferred to the TPFA candidate.     

日野市(Hino City) by-election

LDP-KP      57.02％
JCP-CDP    42.98%

back in 2017 it was

TPFA      41.11% (has DPJ background)
LDP       22.27%
JCP        21.10%
DP rebel 15.51%

JCP was able to eat into the 2017 TPFA vote with the LDP under-performing. 

小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) (JRP) got exactly 9.99% share of the vote which means he will lose his deposit by the smallest of margins.

NHK exit poll for Tokyo also asked by Olympics.  27% are for holding the Olympics next year, 36% are for cancelling the Olympics and 17% are for another delay to (most likely 2022). 

Abe cabinet approval stabilizing around the mid 30s

()

小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) clearly performed better in rural areas and performed the worst in core urban areas.  小野泰輔(Ono Taisuke) and 宇都宮 健児(Utsunomiya Kenji) are the other way around.  山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is stronger in urban areas as well but seems to have surprising relative strength in suburban areas.

()


Populist Right JFP 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) ran on an anti-immigrant platform and won 2.9% of the vote versus 1.7% in 2016 did much better in urban areas

()

His support seems to correlate positively with level of immigrants in said district.

The Tokyo prefecture by-election results show that both the LDP and CDP brand have been taking a beating due to the virus outbreak and that the gainer from this is JRP.  It also showed what 2017 Tokyo prefecture election showed: that LDP victories are based on its alliance with KP and the end of such an alliance would mean electoral disaster for the LDP.   

The good news for the LDP is that in a national election the JRP would not have enough candidates with name recognition in each district and will either run a weak candidate or none at all.   In such a circumstance the JRP vote would most likely move toward the candidate with more name recognition which must of the time would be the LDP candidate.  With KP alliance intact the LDP can look forward to another election victory in the next national election despite the damage to its brand.

This election this Sunday is getting interesting.  Even though it was suppose to be the LDP-KP backed incumbant 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (2016 LDP rebel backed by the opposition) vs CDP backed LDP rebel 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (2016 pro-LDP incumbant), late breaking polls shows that the CDP base is shifting toward 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) who has a bureaucrat background and hence on paper more pro-LDP.   Due to the LDP base being split between 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) and  伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) some polls now show that 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) is slightly ahead of 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi).  JCP is running a candidate (whereas it backed then LDP rebel 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) in 2016) but is getting no traction and the JCP vote is shifting most likely to 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi).

Both LDP and CDP look bad in this election.  LDP because now for the second election in a row they could not get their house in order and CDP because they could not even direct their voters to the "correct" LDP rebel.   I think in the end 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) should win with a last minute consolidation of the LDP vote (the KP vote is already solid behind 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) as per instruction from KP high command.)  One way or another the election is now expected to be close.

Both Lower House MP 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki)  and his Upper House MP wife 河井案里(Kawai Anri) have been indicted with vote buying.  Given the fact that Japanese prcoecution never indites anyone they do not feel they have a 99% shot a conviction it is almost certin both will be conviced leading to by-elections.   Abe just has to hope that is where it stops.

In 大阪(Osaka) it seems that JRP will push foward with the 大阪都構想 (Osaka Metropolis plan).  The idea is to turn 大阪(Osaka) from a 府(Fu or urban prefecture) to 都 (To or metropolis).  Currently the only other 府(Fu) in Japan is 京都(Kyoto).  The real agenda is really dethron Tokyo as the capital of Japan and creating two capitals with 東京(Tokyo) as captail of East Japan and 大阪(Osaka) as the captial of West Japan.

If the 大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly and various other municipal assemblies passes this, which they will as all of them are controled by JRP, then there will be a refernedum in Nov 2020.  A similar referendum failed in 2015 50.38%-49.62% which led to the retirmennt from active politics of JRP founder Hashimoto.   This time around with JRP being much stronger in 大阪(Osaka) than in 2015 it will most likely pass.

Overall Abe is most likely supportive of this plan while the 大阪(Osaka) LDP is very much opposed.  Most of this has to do with personal dynmics.  Abe is on good personal terms with Hashimoto while the Hashimoto pretty much created JRP in 2011 by splitting the 大阪(Osaka) LDP leading to raw hatred between JRP and the 大阪(Osaka) LDP.  In 大阪(Osaka) local politics it is pretty much LDP-CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP against JRP with KP mostly playing a neutral role where KP could and has allied with JRP and LDP.  But that the 大阪(Osaka) LDP can ally with JCP to take on JRP shows the depth of animosity the 大阪(Osaka) LDP has for JRP and they will fight tooth and nail to defeat this proposal in the likely Nov 2020 referendum.

So is this going to be Osaka+Sakai or just Osaka this time?
(in regards to how much of the prefecture becomes special wards)

It is the same as the 2015 proposal.  All of 大阪市(Osaka City) and 堺市(Sakai City) will be made into a bunch of 区 (Wards) of a 大阪都区部(Osaka Special wards).

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election this Sunday is coming down to the wire

This chart of latest polls
()

Shows incumbent  三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) backed by LDP-KP in a neck to neck race with  塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) with old LDP backed incumbent 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) backed by CDP from 2016 in a close 3rd position.  It seems the LDP vote is split between these two candidates while the CDP vote is split between 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)  and 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō).

Voting about to end soon in 鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election.  Mostly a 3 way battle between 2016 LDP rebel now backed by LDP-KP incumbent 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi), 2016 LDP incumbent  伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) now backed by CDP,  bureaucrat background 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) who seems to have caught fire and eaten into both LDP and CDP votes.  Also media personalty 青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) and JCP's 横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) are expected to win some level of support.  There are 2 other minor candidates but they will not get much.

Most polls has it neck-to-neck between LDP-KP incumbent 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) and 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) with most likely 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) not far behind.

KYT exit polls calls it for 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi).  Looks like a last minute Opposition consolidation behind him.

Exit polls reults

()

塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) around 36%
三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent) around 29%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbant) around 19%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality) around 8%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed) around 3%

Looking at how 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) and 横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) did it fits the narrative that a last minute Opposition consolidation around 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)  gave him the victory.  So just like 2016 the LDP-KP backed incumbent lost which is fairly rare.

So this election is a flop for both LDP and CDP.  LDP bet on the wrong horse again while CDP could not even get their own base to vote for the "correct" LDP rebel.

Exit polls show that the LDP vote was split 3 ways with something like

()

塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)      35%
三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi)  35%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō)       25%

With 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) winning the battle for the anti-LDP vote over 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) he was able to prevail even as the KP vote for sure went to  三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) as per KP high command instructions.

So LDP vote being split is the reason for LDP-KP backed 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) defeat

NHK exit poll shows 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) stronger with LDP vote than other exit polls but most likely not enough for him to win as 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) has a good chunk of the LDP vote and won the fairly large lean Center-Left independent vote

()

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 12% of the vote in it is

三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       35.6%
塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    29.9%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  18.1%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           9.2%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.1%

The vote so far lean rural and suburban areas which will lean 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi).  Nothing from the more urban areas which are expected to go 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)

Note that while 鹿児島(Kagoshima) based KYT called the race for 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi), NHK has not made a call yet.

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 25% of the vote in it is

三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       34.7%
塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    27.3%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  23.4%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.0%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          3.5%

Still nothing more larger urban areas

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 48% of the vote in it is

三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       33.4%
塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    28.6%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  21.9%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.7%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.1%

Still nothing from 鹿児島市(Kagoshima City).  So far it seems 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) is out-performing exit polls so this will come down to the wire even if 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) gets a big bump from urban areas.

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 56% of the vote in it is

三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       33.2%
塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    29.3%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  21.4%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.8%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.2%

Most of the votes outside of 鹿児島市(Kagoshima City) are in.  So really comes down to what sort of bump 鹿児島市(Kagoshima City) can give 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi).

NHK calls race for 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi).  They must have advanced information on how the  鹿児島市(Kagoshima City) count is going.

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 63% of the vote in it is

三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       33.4%
塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    28.8% (called by NHK as the winner)
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  22.0%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.5%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.0%

All of the outstanding vote is 鹿児島市(Kagoshima City)

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 86% of the vote in it is

塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    31.9% (called by NHK as the winner)
三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       31.4%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  19.8%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.2%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.8%

鹿児島市(Kagoshima City) coming in.  塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) takes the lead

Japanese political blogger Miraisyakai posted a time based view of 鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election vote count and how it sharply shifted right as 鹿児島市(Kagoshima City) came in

()

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 99% of the vote in it is

塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    33.9% (called by NHK as the winner)
三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       29.8%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  20.2%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.6%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.2%

塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) under-performed exit polls but still pulled out a victory.

Looking at exit polls it seems clear that if 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) not run 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) should have won re-election.  In many ways 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō)  got revenge on 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi)  for beating him in 2016.

I wonder if 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi)  is going to try to do a comeback in 2024 just like 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) tried to make a comeback in 2020.  What would be comical is if in 2024 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) will run for re-election with LDP-KP support (under the rule if you win you are LDP) and 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) runs with Opposition support.

塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) won by sweeping urban areas while the rural areas are split between 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) and 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō)

()

I have been tracking Japanese prefecture elections for a while and will now post a history of relative strength of various blocs over the last few cycles. 

Blocs in question are
LDP+: LDP, pro-LDP independents, LDP rebels that mostly go back to LDP, and local LDP allied parties
KP+: KP and the rare pro-KP independent
Third Pole: Non-LDP Center-Right forces, often LDP or Center-Left Splinters
Center-Left: Center-Left parties (DPJ SDP etc etc) and Center-Left independents
JCP+: JCP and the race pro-JCP independent   

I group Japanese prefecture elections into cycles.  The latest cycle started with Dec 2018 茨城(Ibaraki), then almost all the rest takes place in the Spring of 2019, 岩手(Iwate) and 宮城(Miyagi) in the fall of 2019, 沖縄(Okinawa) in the Summer of 2020, and 東京(Tokyo) in the Summer of 2021.  This cycle I would label as the 2018-2021 cycle.   I will track strength of the various blocs in the 2002-2005, 2006-2009, 2010-2013, 2014-2017, 2018-2021 cycles.

I weight strength of each bloc in each prefecture by the VAP of the most recent national election.  Doing that I get:

                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         59.89%  9.23%  2.29%  23.69%  4.89%   
2006-2009         55.80%  9.56%  0.78%  29.70%  4.15%   
2010-2013         55.14%  9.40%  8.01%  23.20%  4.24%   
2014-2017         53.09%  9.57% 10.34% 20.92%  6.08%   
2018-2021         54.63%  9.39%  7.38%  23.47%  5.13%   

Note KP+ is pretty much steady throughout as KP only contests when there is a 99% chance of being elected.  The relative strength of LDP+ and Center-Left depends on the strength of Third Pole forces and from which voting bloc Third Pole parties draw support from or flow back into.

Going cycle by cycle

2002-2005: We are in the last stages of the death of the various Ozawa Third Pole parties (LP, NCP and various other remnants of the Ozawa NFP of the late 1990s.)  This is also the first real cycle that KP is fully allied with LDP although in a couple of prefectures you still see KP having tactical alignments with Center-Left parties reflecting the KP alignments of the 1970s-1990s.   LDP+ dominates the landscape although going forward they will never have this sort of dominance again in the future.

2006-2009: Ozawa's Third Pole LP merged into DPJ which when added to anti-LDP sentiment drove a surge in Center Left bloc members.  This came from a swing of LDP+ support to the Center Left bloc, LP vote following Ozawa over to the Center Left and a tactical shift of JCP vote over to teh Center Left bloc.  This surge is especially strong in urban areas and comes hand in hand with the 2007 and 2009 landslide defeat of LDP in national elections.

2010-2013: Disappointment in the DPJ administration led a good part of the Center-Left urban surge to flow to new Third Pole parties (JRP in 大阪(Osaka) and YP in other urban areas) leading to a fall in Center-Left strength.  Third Pole parties took some support from LDP+ but clearly more from Center-Left forces and the split of the anti-LDP vote allowed the LDP to maintain their membership strength despite losing votes to JRP and YP.

2014-2017: Continued anger at the failed 2009-2012 DPJ administration continue to dog the Center Left bloc support.  Some of the Center Left bloc support flows to JCP leading to a JCP surge in strength while YP support wanes with their support going to JRP.  In 東京(Tokyo) Koike's Third Pole TPFA eats into both LDP+, Center Left, and JRP support even as her party also absorbs what is left of the old YP vote.   Center Left strength falls to a low.

2018-2021: Here, 東京(Tokyo) has not voted yet but I am going to project what the 東京(Tokyo) prefecture elections will most likely produce:  LDP+ 44 (return of LDP-KP alliance), KP+ 23 (standard), Third Pole 22 (3-4 JRP, rest a much weaker TPFA running without KP alliance), Center-Left 23 (CDP recaptures some of old Center Left vote that TPFA took in 2017), JCP+ 15 (some alliance with CDP will save a few JCP seats.)
The voting so far shows that the JCP surge of 2014-2017 has receded and that surge of support has partly flowed back to Center Left.  JRP clearly on the decline in Eastern Japan even as it gains in Western Japan.  Of course TPFA's expected fall will push up the strength of LDP+ and Center Left blocs.

Next, I will break up these levels of support by region and urbanization.

We can now look at strengths of different blocs (LDP+, KP+, Third Pole, Center Left, JCP+) by Urban, Suburban and Rural prefectures separated by East and West Japan.  Historically Japan has been split into East Japan and West Japan with West Japan defined as inclusively of 関西(Kansai)/近畿(Kinki) and all areas West of that.  East Japan being all areas East of 関西(Kansai)/近畿(Kinki).  The political dynamics of East and West Japan does seems to be different so it makes sense to use that as a method of separation.  

()

Doing this we get for East Japan

East Japan Urban
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         44.49% 14.95%  1.16%  31.81%   7.59%  
2006-2009         36.01% 15.30%  0.00%  44.58%   4.11%  
2010-2013         46.19% 14.54%  9.91%  21.43%   7.94%  
2014-2017         31.22% 14.63% 28.55% 14.38%  11.22%
2018-2021         41.77% 13.90% 10.36% 24.99%   8.98%


East Japan Suburban
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         65.00%  7.49%   2.12%  22.34%   3.06%
2006-2009         59.03%  7.69%   1.43%  29.97%   1.88%
2010-2013         58.94%  7.40%   5.83%  25.92%   1.91%
2014-2017         58.81%  7.67%   1.78%  27.24%   4.51%
2018-2021         58.97%  7.73%   0.82%  29.31%   3.17%


East Japan Rural
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         63.87%   4.00%   5.29%  23.90%  2.95%
2006-2009         62.55%   4.31%   1.27%  28.25%  3.61%
2010-2013         61.11%   4.86%   3.63%  26.84%  3.55%
2014-2017         61.01%   5.39%   2.56%  26.33%  4.70%
2018-2021         63.31%   5.43%   0.93%  26.13%  4.21%

Again East Japan Urban 2018-2021 cycles depends on my assumption that  2021 東京(Tokyo) prefecture elections will most likely produce:  LDP+ 44 (return of LDP-KP alliance), KP+ 23 (standard), Third Pole 22 (3-4 JRP, rest a much weaker TPFA running without KP alliance), Center-Left 23 (CDP recaptures some of old Center Left vote that TPFA took in 2017), JCP+ 15 (some alliance with CDP will save a few JCP seats.)

Note that Urban East Japan is very volatile.  Even in 2002-2005 DPJ was strong here and surged to huge heights in 2006-2009.  The failure of the 2009-2012 DPJ administration led to the collapse of the Center Left with Third Pole YP and JRP taking a good part of the 2006-2009 Center Left surge.  The 2014-2017 saw the rise of TPFA in Tokyo which hammered LDP+ even with YP's decline and 2018-2021 will see recovery of both LDP+ and Center Left as TPFA declines.  JCP saw a huge jump in 2014-2017 only to give up a lot of their gains in 2018-2021.

Suburban East Japan is a more muted version of Urban East Japan with the same pattern without the TPFA in Tokyo.  YP surged in 2010-2013 but fell into decline after that.  The Center Left as a result is as strong here in 2018-2021 as their peak in 2006-2009.

Rural East Japan had some LP strength in 2002-2005 which merged into DPJ by 2006-2009.  After that this area has been pretty static in terms of relative strength of different blocs with a slight YP surge in 2010-2013 but receded soon after that with most of their strength going over to LDP+ by 2018-2021.

The summery here is the Urban prefectures in East Japan swing hard for the latest fad (DPJ in 2006-2009, YP in 2010-2013, TPFA (in Tokyo) in 2014-2017) and only in 2018-2021 are things slowly regressing to the mean.  Rural prefectures in East Japan are pretty static with fairly low impact of the rise of Third Pole parties last few cycles.

Doing the same for West Japan we have

West Japan Urban
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         46.15%  16.48%   1.65% 25.84%  9.88%      
2006-2009         48.39%  16.90%   0.95% 23.85%  9.91%      
2010-2013         32.51%  15.87% 28.56% 16.53%  6.52%    
2014-2017         39.85%  15.03% 29.24%   8.68%  7.21%      
2018-2021         33.43%  15.09% 35.30% 10.06%  6.12%    


West Japan Suburban
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         66.42%  9.45%   0.69%  19.27%  4.18%  
2006-2009         57.20%  9.85%   0.23%  28.68%  4.04%  
2010-2013         58.21%  9.74%   1.20%  28.00%  2.85%  
2014-2017         56.28%  9.84%   2.57%  26.45%  4.86%  
2019-2021         58.24%  8.83%   1.91%  25.88%  5.13%  


West Japan Rural
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005          71.17%  5.99%   1.63% 17.52%   3.68%
2006-2009          70.22%  6.22%   0.00% 19.52%   4.04%
2010-2013          69.92%  6.72%   1.02% 18.34%   4.01%
2014-2017          69.38%  7.05%   1.87% 17.39%   4.31%
2018-2021          69.55%  6.87%   1.88% 17.39%   4.31%

The dynamics of Western Japan is clearly different from East Japan and is partly influenced by Osaka regionalism and resentment of Tokyo.  LDP+ is just stronger here but JRP will play a much bigger role.

Here the the big DPJ wave of 2006-2009 did not really give the Center Left a boast in West Urban Japan for the Center Left and in 2011 the rise of JRP pretty much ate into the LDP+, Center Left, and JCP+  over the next few cycles and even a bit into KP+ with the 2018-2021 cycle JRP taking yet another bit from LDP+.

The DPJ wave of 2006-2009 was a force in West Suburban areas but the YP surge of 2010-2013 that was very strong in East Urban and Suburban Japan was not much of a force in West Japan and as a result the fall of the Center Left bloc in 2010-2013 cycle not as deep.  Rural East Japan was mostly static throughout with JRP being slightly stronger in West Rural Japan.

Some conclusions from these Japanese prefecture assembly data.

1) LDP was and is still stronger in the West and Rural areas

2) Urban areas was where the Center Left was the strongest in the 2002-2005 and 2006-2009 cycles but the rise of Third Pole parties like YP JRP and TPFA have upended that and now the Center Left have their base in Suburban areas

3) Both KP and JCP are stronger in Urban areas but these number are a bit descriptive.  The Urban constituencies are generally bigger in terms of members election which will allow smaller parties like KP and JCP to run and win seats.  It is very unlikely that KP or JCP choose to run and win a 1- or 2- member district.

4) The YP surge of 2010-2013 was a mostly East Japan Urban and Suburban phenomenon while JRP's surge of 2014-2017 is mostly centered in Urban West Japan and much weaker elsewhere even though it had the advantage of taking over the YP base.   By 2018-2021 the Third Pole parties have been mostly reduced to Urban areas only with very little presence outside of Urban areas.

5) Rural areas are lot more static in terms of the relative strength of different blocs especially when   the Third Pole parties had fairly minimal impact after 2006-2009.

6) If you look at local prefecture politicians, you do see some movement/defections between Third Pole politicians and the LDP+ as well as with the Center Left.  Defections between LDP+ and the Center Left blocs are much more rare.  So Third Pole parties and politicians are really a mix of anti-LDP politicians who for ideological reasons are not comfortable aligning with the Center Left bloc and  Center Right politicians within the Center Left bloc who choose to move away from Center Left parties due to ideological differences.  Clearly personality conflict will play a key role for these defections.  But the nature of the mix of politicians makes it easy for some to move back and forth between Third Pole parties and LDP+ and well as between Third Pole parties and Center Left parties.   

There seems to be yet another attempt for CDP and DPP to merge.  Merger talks earlier this year fell through because CDP demanded that DPP disband and merge into CDP.  Now CDP is offering DPP a plan for both to disband and a new party called "Democratic Party" created by the fusion of the members of both parties.  I guess CDP was concerned about talks of a DPP alliance with JRP in a possible snap election.  Of course if this were to take place then this is just the revival of DP which broke up in 2017 when it was taken over by Koike to form HP and CDP bolted in protest.

There are now three "theories" on when the next Lower House election will take place

1) Oct 2020 - mostly about getting it done before the USA election
2) Jan 2021 - mostly about getting it done before well ahead of the 2021 Tokyo prefecture elections in the summer which is a key KP demand as KP wants to be at full strength for the 2021 Tokyo prefecture elections
3) July 2021 - after 2021 Olympics

It just seems 1) and 2) are more likely although LDP support right now is soft and will need some time to recover

Asahi did a poll in mid July that asked for vote on the PR slate for the next Lower House election which in my view is a better view on relative party strength.  They had (diff relative to their Jan 2020 poll)

LDP     35 (-2)
KP        6 (--)
HP        1 (+1) (surprised they are still being polled)
PNHK    2 (--)
JRP     10 (+4)
DPP      3
CDP    13 (-2)
RS        2 (-2)
SDP      2 (+1)
JCP       5 (-1)

Mostly about JRP gaining from LDP and CDP.  I figure around 3-4 out of the 35 LDP polls are really KP PR voters that say they will vote LDP.  RS also losing a bit of their novelty factor.   

Even with Abe's poor approval numbers it is clear LDP-KP has lost a bit of ground but they will continue to dominate any future election to come. CDP lost ground but with their alliance with SDP and JCP they as well as merger talks with DPP are still the main alternative to LDP despite the JRP surge.

How exactly is the CDP losing ground to the JRP? The latter party seems a bit conservative for the base of the former party?

JRP's management of Osaka during the virus outbreak was viewed as a success just like Koike was viewed as doing a good job in Tokyo with most negatives being projected toward Abe.  So JRP seems to have picked up a lot of support due to the perception that it is associated with good crisis management.

Which party do you call JRP? I can't find it in the Wiki table.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Party_identification_polling

Nippon no Kai (日本維新の会)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nippon_Ishin_no_Kai

This one is quite complicated to explain.

In 2012 日本維新の会 (Japan Restoration Party) which was national version of the Osaka based 大阪維新の会(Osaka Restoration Association) plus a bunch of DPJ and YP defectors.  In 2014 YP (not really, it was UP which was a YP splinter that had the majority of YP MPs) merged into JRP which was renamed 維新の党(Japan Innovation Party).    In 2015 after the failure of the Osaka Metropolitan referendum JRP founder  橋下徹(Hashimoto Tōru) resigned from national politics.  His successors moved the party toward an alliance with DPJ which  橋下徹(Hashimoto Tōru)  opposed.  In late 2015 the mostly Osaka branch of JIP (which was mostly the Osaka core of the 2012 日本維新の会 (Japan Restoration Party) and supported by 橋下徹(Hashimoto Tōru) split to re-create the 大阪維新の会(Osaka Restoration Association or Initiatives from Osaka).  In 2016 JIP merged with DPJ to form DP. Since that mean that there was no more national party with the word 維新 (Ishin) in it 大阪維新の会(Osaka Restoration Association) renamed itself back to 日本維新の会.  But this time, unlike 2012 and 2014 the party did not come out with an official English name so it is often referred to as Nippon Ishin no Kai in English.  The Japanese press often calls this party Japan Innovation Party from its 2014 version of the name.  I think that is confusing and a more correct name would be JRP or  Japan Restoration Party.  The key reason is the world 維新 (Ishin) is really a Chinese import word for political reform and was famously used in the context of the Meiji Restoration of 1868.  This was the basis of naming the 2012 日本維新の会 party Japan Restoration Party.  The word "Restoration" best maps to the word 維新.  The Japanese media figures no foreign will understand this complete mess and just decided to use Japan Innovation Party  even though this party is a very different party than the 2014 維新の党(Japan Innovation Party).

Thanks.

They're Ishin in Wiki's opinion polling table.

Latest virus outbreak clearly has hurt Abe cabinet and LDP support

Abe cabinet approval dropping
()

Approval of government efforts in dealing with the virus clearly heading down
()

LDP support declining but also is JRP and CDP a bit with JCP rising
()
()

Aoki index [Approval Rating of the Cabinet + Support for the ruling Party] falling.  Typically Aoki index in the 60s means defeat for the ruling party in elections as long as the opposition are united
()

Just saw a prediction that seems extremely pro-opposition, done by Nogami Tadaoki (野上忠興) in the Weekly post (週刊ポスト)
https://www.news-postseven.com/archives/20200805_1583281.html/2

()

I saw the same projection.  It is by a weekly magazine.  Here is the seat by seat projection

()
()
()
()

I looked over the projections district by district.  What the projection does is

a) CDP and DPP plus minor allies have perfect seat adjustments in competitive seats comes up with quality candidates in all of them where the CDP and DPP base have perfect vote transfer
b) JCP stands down in all competitive seats in favor of the CDP-DPP alliance and JCP vote base perfectly transfers to the common opposition candidate
c) Where JRP and RS runs in competitive seats they will not hurt CDP-DPP alliance
d) Assume a small swing against LDP-KP
e) Assume that in seats where there might be a LDP rebel that the LDP rebel takes mostly from the LDP-KP vote share
f) High turnout which will hurt KP but somehow not hurt JCP on the PR slate.

Each one of these assumptions could be true but for all of them to be true is very unlikely.  In many of the competitive seats CDP-DPP have each nominated a candidate already plus in some cases JCP, RS and JRP are in the fray as well in said competitive seats.  This projection as the LDP losing seats where the opposition could not even come up with a viable candidate yet.

The main point of this projection is to sell more magazines.  People are not going to buy a magazine showing a boring LDP victory.  A shocking opposition surge where LDP-KP barely clings on to a majority will get people to buy to look at the details.   As we get to the real election the "true" projection will get published a week two before the election since the none of the media houses want  the bad rep of putting out a projection that is way off the mark.  Before then they will be biased against the LDP in order to sell those magazines off the  magazine stands at 7-11.

Approval of Abe cabinet handling of Covid-19 pandemic drops below 30%.  Sure there was a surge of cases but the death rate still remains nears nil.  Way overreaction by the Japanese public.
()

Abe cabinet approval curve below 35% means it is getting close to the danger zone of 30%.  This level is also around the same level as mid 2017 and early 2018 when the Abe administration was in crisis.
()

At this stage there is no way there is going to be an election in 2020.  Abe has to hope he can wind up this crisis in 2020 and go for an election in early 2021.  Main problem for him is the later the election the more resistant KP will be who wants a lower house election out of the way before the 2021 Tokyo prefecture elections.  A later election also means the pressure of CDP-DPP merger talks will decline which means further delay on this front.

https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2020081100924/

DPP has split over plans to merge with CDP.  One faction of DPP will just join CDP.  The rump DPP will reform into another party and most likely will be allied with JRP in the next election.  Depending on how strong the rump DPP is this split might have handed a landslide victory to LDP-KP even if Abe is now becoming quite unpopular.   Now all eyes will be on how many DPP MPs and MLA will choose to join CDP.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ww2-anniversary-japan/japans-abe-on-ww2-anniversary-vows-not-to-repeat-war-sends-offering-to-shrine-idUSKCN25B06E (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ww2-anniversary-japan/japans-abe-on-ww2-anniversary-vows-not-to-repeat-war-sends-offering-to-shrine-idUSKCN25B06E)

毎日(Mainichi) Sunday magazine projection of an October snap election.  This was done before the DPP spit and merger with CDP was announced.

()
()

           District      PR        Total
LDP         196       66         262
KP              7       22           29
HP              0         0            0
PNHK          0         0            0
JRP             7       27          34
DPP           31       11          42
CDP           28      32           60
RS              0         3            3
SDP            1         1            1
JCP             1       14          15
OPPN        18                     18   (Opposition unity candidates mostly of them will be pro-CDP)
----------------------------------------------
               289     176        465

LDP-KP will lose their 2/3 majority but LDP-KP-JRP will still be well above 2/3 keeping the possibility of a pro-Constitutional revision majority.  

KP at 7 district seat means that they expect KP to lose their 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th seat to CDP.

2017 PR seat elected distribution was
LDP       66
KP         21
JRP        11
HP         32
CDP       38
SDP         1
JCP        11

The number of PR seats went down from 180 in 2017 to 176.

which means this projection expect LDP and KP mostly to repeat their 2017 performance with a slight gain while the 2017 HP PR vote gets split between DPP and JRP while CDP loses ground to both RS and JCP.

The main difference to 2017 is the better Center-Left-JCP opposition unity despite losing some PR votes to JRP.

So far out of the 62 DPP MPs, 24 have announced their plans in the impending split of DPP.  18 has decided to join the faction that will merge into CDP and 6 has decide to stay on in a reconstructed DPP.  Note the famous Ozawa which merged his LP into DPP in 2019 has indicated he will join CDP.

()

A key reason beyond personality and ideology for a rump DPP to exist has to do with money. When DP fell apart in late 2017, HP took over its assets.  When DPP split from HP in 2018 it made the claim that it was the true inheritor of DP and kept all the original DP assets.  Now even if a good chunk of DPP MPs joins up with CDP the rump DPP will still get to keep this large asset base.  The DPP asset base was $100 million before the 2019 Local and Upper House election and after its spending in 2019 election one has to figure it has to be around $50 million.  If DPP wholesale merge into CDP then CDP will get this cash.  But now the rump DPP will have $50 million of election funds to play with which could keep up the rump DPP going for a while.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3097807/japan-pms-health-question-rumours-swirl-successors-jostle

Japan PM’s health in question as rumours swirl, successors jostle

There are rumors that Abe coughed out blood and will resign on a temp basis for former PM Tarō Asō and current DPM to take over for now.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/12/japan-pm-sparks-anger-with-near-identical-speeches-in-hiroshima-and-nagasaki

It seems that a couple of days earlier he gave near identical but separate speeches in Hiroshima and Nagasaki getting some in both cities angry

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/19/national/politics-diplomacy/dpp-japan-opposition-cdp-merger/

DPP approves merger with CDP to form new party.  DPP leader 玉木雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) indicates that he will reform a rump DPP

()

So far out of 62 DPP MPs, 22 indicated they will merge into CDP, 6 will join the reformed rump DPP and 2 will become independent.  Rest of them have not indicated their position yet but the vast majority will clearly join CDP

Vomiting blood is not a symptom of the (quite serious) chronic medical condition Abe is known to have, but vomit in general is, as is vomit that is quite disturbing in terms of colour and smell specifically.

To be fair and clear, all these rumors about coughing up blood and Abe appointing  Tarō Asō to be the new PM as early as this week are all from Chinese language media sources.  They get their rumors from various Japanese stringers in Japan as Japanese press does not report rumors.  The Chinese language media have no such qualms.  All things equal it seems Abe is back at work and most likely the most extreme versions of these rumors will prove unlikely to be true.  Still the PM office claim that Abe went into the hospital for a checkup seems unlikely as Abe just had a checkup two months ago.

()

Most recent DPP split count are -> 28 to join up with the new merged party with CDP, 6 to form new reformed rump DPP, 2 will become independent.  Rest of the 62 DPP MPs hae not come out with their decisions yet.   

The name of the merged CDP-DPP party will be decided on a vote of the MPs at a later date.  CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) will be the leader of the new enlarged party.  Not clear if SDP will merge into this new opposition party but a large number of pro-CDP and pro-DPP independents will join up and will also include former PM 野田佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko) and his centrist grouping of independents.

It is clear that the rump DPP will be quite small and its number of MPs will be in the single digits.  It seems this rump DPP, which are already in talks with JRP for an alliance, is also reaching out to RS for a possible alliance as it is way too weak to survive on its own.  Also with DPP national committee voting to merge with CDP it is not clear that the rump DPP will even get to keep the $50 million campaign fund. 

It seems the DPP campaign cash pile will be divided up on a pro rated basis depending on how many DPP MP joins the new rump DPP or the CDP-DPP merger party.  If so the large majority of the DPP cash will end up in CDP-DPP merged party hands which gives a funding boost to CDP which his much more cash poor when compared to DPP.

It also seems Union federation Rengo is split down the middle between supporting the new rump DPP and the new CDP-DPP merger party.  I am almost certain the nuclear power plant workers union will be for the rump DPP given the CDP position on nuclear power plant shutdowns.

DPP split status is (out of 62 DPP MPs)

33 will join new CDP-DPP merge party
5 will join new re-formed rump DPP
6 will become independent
18 TBD

()

If seems the rump DPP and 6 independents will continue their alliance with thew new CDP-DPP merge party to take on LDP which also means some tactical understanding with SDP and JCP.  DPP is also working on some understanding JRP.  This means in the next election the 5 rump DPP MPs are likely to retain their seats even if DPP does not win any PR seats. 5 MPs is just enough to be recognized as a party to get federal funding so the rump DPP might survive for a couple of years.   

The 6 independent MPs which are almost all PR slate MPs are choosing not to join most likely because they do not expected to be re-nominated in the next election (be it Upper or Lower) by the new CDP-DPP merger party.  It is possible some of these MPs are looking to make bargains with JRP or LDP so they can join with one of those two parties or even start a new party on their own.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/08/20/commentary/japan-commentary/japan-opposition-parties/

Japan Times has an article talks about why the LDP always seems to win.  They mostly focus on the short election campaign period and that the LDP has control of the election date plus the LDP funding edge.   I think these are factors but miss the mark. 

To me it is
a) Mutually reinforcing trends of LDP being the ruling party at the center most of the time, local government needing federal subsidies to survive which gives the LDP the edge in local election, which in turn give the LDP an edge in candidate quality at the national level.
b) KP alliance with LDP.  The KP voting base are Center to Center-Left lower middle class voters that in a generic political system will be anti-LDP.  In fact KP has anti-LDP roots.  But KP capturing this voting base and forming an alliance with LDP locks out opposition parties from access to this voting bloc.

I would say that in retrospect the most consequential event in recent Japanese political history is the 1995 Tokyo subway  Aum Shinrikyo sarin attack.  Because of this attack KP had a self-imposed fear that the Soka Gakkai will be banned as a cult.  In order to mitigate this KP sought to increase it social acceptability as well as to align with the ruling party as much as possible.  Both led them to align with LDP despite their anti-LDP orientation.  This fact gives the LDP an unusually strong electoral edge.  In a hypothetical party system without the  1995 Tokyo subway  Aum Shinrikyo sarin attack I would think the party system might be something like LDP (40%) vs CDP-SDP-JCP (35%) vs JRP-KP-DPP (25%) where LDP is still the strongest force but tactical alliance between  CDP-SDP-JCP and JRP-KP-DPP could bring down the LDP in many instances.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-24/japan-s-abe-set-to-visit-hospital-again-on-monday-yomiuri-says

Abe to visit hospital again Monday.   It is claimed by the PM office that he is going there to hear the results of his checkup from a week ago.  Of course the "checkup" from a week ago lasted 7.5 hours and we are to believe that the doctors are too busy to email over the checkup results and discuss them over virtual meeting and the PM of Japan has to go to the hospital to hear the checkup results. 

There are rumors and frustrations among some LDP MPs are looking forward to being promoted into the cabinet in an upcoming cabinet reshuffle but now fear the scale of the reshuffle will be scaled down due to the Abe health problems.

Abe is resigning due to his health.

https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1299212635947307010?s=20

It seems Abe will stay on as MP and will run in the next election so revival of the illness that forced him to resign in 2007 (along with a 2007 Upper House LDP setback) must not be terminal.

As for who will be the next PM the front-runners are

石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) who is the leader of his own small 石破(Ishiba) faction and long time rival of Abe, running against Abe in both the 2012 and 2018 LDP Prez contest.

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) who is the current Chief Cabinet Secretary and Abe's long time ally and for sure who Abe favors to succeed him

岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) who is the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the leader of the 岸田(Kishida) faction

河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) who is the Minister of Defense and a member of the 麻生(Aso) faction

Abe above all else will want to block 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) and if he sees that 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) cannot beat out 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  might shift his support to 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) to block 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru).  Main problem is that among the LDP grassroots and the public at large 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) is the most popular.

How the old faction leaders Tarō Asō (麻生 太郎) of the 麻生(Aso) faction and Toshihiro Nikai (二階 俊博) of the 二階(Toshihiro) who both are allies of Abe act will be critical.  They will ultimately decide this LDP Prez election by consolidating behind 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)  or 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) or try to get those to to unite against 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) or they might see 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) cannot be stopped and go over to back 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru).

DPP split status

Out of 62 DPP MPs -> 33 to join CDP-DPP merger party, 6 to join reformed DPP rump party, 6 to become independent (I suspect some will join LDP and other might form their own micro parties). 17 yet to decide   

()

Even though Abe aides a few hours before his press conference claimed that Abe will continue until the end of his term the fact that the 麻生(Aso) faction had an emergency meeting a few hours before Abe announcement made it clear what was going to take place.

Abe resigning most likely means the revival of the power of LDP factions.  Abe was so dominate within the LDP grassroots and LDP MPs that the power of the LDP factions went into decline after 2012.  Now with Abe moving more to a behind the scene role the power of LDP factions will most likely have a reversion to the mean.

LDP Prez election will be mid Sept.  In the meantime Abe will stay on as caretaker PM

Kyodo summarized Abe's press conference.  Abe said:

-- resignation meant to avoid his health issue creating leadership vacuum.
-- he needs prolonged treatment for ulcerative colitis.
-- he lost confidence in his ability to serve Japanese people.
-- now is the only time he could resign amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.
-- he will remain in office until his successor is selected.
-- he apologizes to the Japanese people for stepping down at this time.
-- it is with utmost regret that he failed to amend the Constitution, bring Japanese abductees home from North Korea.
-- will continue his political career, run in next general election.

So in the end out all the mainstream media the Chinese language media got it right.  The entire time over the last week the Chinese language media (mostly in ROC and HK) kept on saying Abe is a goner while most Japanese mainstream media seems to be more reluctant in printing what they consider rumors about Abe's health and likely resignation.  Obviously peer pressure to not undermine the nation's leader played a role here.

Are there any significant ideological differences between the factions, or is it all just a case of personal loyalties/who’s friends with who/who represents what interest group/who wants a government job? My understanding is that Ishiba is even more of a nationalist than Abe, but I could’ve read that completely wrong.

Most of it is about personality.  The only thing I can thing of is  二階(Toshihiro) faction is pro-Beijing while most of the other factions are anti-Beijing.  In the LDP-KP government, when it is time to deal with USA they tend to deploy non-二階(Toshihiro) faction politicians and when it is time to deal with PRC they deploy  二階(Toshihiro) faction and KP politicians as KP is also considered pro-Beijing. 

Not surprising: recent photographs of Abe pointed heavily towards him suffering from a serious flare-up of his condition; his washed-out complexion especially. Anyway, whatever one might think of his policies, he is an objectively remarkable man to have so dominated public Japanese public life for so long whilst suffering from this.

I've always hated me some Abe, but I've never wished a condition this chronic or this painful on him. Definitely the end of an era for Japan, and it must be said that he has done a little good in addition to much bad (I'd definitely rather be a woman in the Japanese workforce now than in 2012, for instance, although my view is that "womenomics" was too little too late in terms of the toxicity of Japanese gender relations).

The Daily Beast is being pretty tasteless about this, using puns like "unable to stomach the job" and implying--perhaps correctly, but now really isn't the time to say it--that Abe's real concern is reducing his legal liability for this cabinet's corruption issues.

The factional issues in the LDP were at one time ideological, markedly and infamously so, but these days the whole party is pretty thoroughly captive to the Nippon Kaigi way of doing things.

I am for 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō).  He is the one most likely to push LDP in a Thatcherite direction.  If he becomes LDP Prez I will for sure switch my support from JRP back to LDP.  I cannot stand Abe mostly because of his heterodox economic policies.  Unfortunately unless it is 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) there is very little chance LDP will change course on that front.  Anyone other than 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) is just Abe Mark II with perhaps a shift in a more dovish or hawkish direction but even that will be minor.

Would you still be willing to make money as a sex trafficker if you could get away with it, jaichind? (Note for newer posters: He actually did say this back in the day.)

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200828/p2g/00m/0na/090000c

Osaka pref. assembly readies Nov. 1 referendum on metropolis plan

Looks like the Osaka metropolis plan referendum will be Nov 1.  With JRP riding high in Osaka most likely they will win this vote versus their very narrow defeat in 2015.  The Osaka LDP hates, like really hates, this plan mostly due to personal hostilely toward the Osaka JRP and will fight tooth and nail to defeat this.  Abe, on the other hand, is tactility for the plan.  Abe being gone means this plan loses an ally. Most likely will not matter.  Will not be surprised if it passes by something like 60/40

What are the substantive arguments for and against the plan, as you understand them?

The world will watch in anticipation as to how this plays out. Abe's continued efforts to amend the Constitution & allow nationalists in his cabinet have made him generally unpopular among the Japanese people, especially with the younger generations of voters who were raised on a pacifist, liberal education. And despite his party's strong grip on power, he managed to implement only a limited track-record. The effects of Abenomics aren't yet clear, & the public isn't yet ready to accept changes to Article 9.

Nevertheless, I think Japan won't rush to shake things up in the Diet. Abe's ability to leverage Japan's strength in foreign relations - & maintaining stability at the top of Japan's political atmosphere - will be critical for Japan in the post-COVID era. I expect him to continue to be a major part of the LDP decision-making process, much like Putin in between his terms &/or Lee Kuan Yew after his retirement.

You have it backward. Abbe was pretty popular among young people. It was the older groups that were most anti-Abbe

That was always the LDP way and that may well be the plan (and, you know, the hope of the various party hacks who lack his talents), but not immediately, I think. His condition is really not a joke at all and getting it under control if it flares nastily can take a while.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53428863 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53428863)

Yeah, this is true.  Overall Abe is actually not that popular.  He is very popular with LDP MPs and the core LDP vote.  So his main contribution to LDP victory is to keep it united so the natural LDP strength at the ground level can steamroll a divided opposition.  He never really delivered any personal vote to the LDP MP in their election campaigns.

See


On paper it is about being more "efficient" by reducing layers of government.  In practice it s a multi-step process of
a) Making Osaka at par with Tokyo and from there locking in JRP as long time ruling party of Osaka
b) Then push the East-West Japan differences and how the West has been underdeveloped relative to the East just like Osaka has been underdeveloped relative to Tokyo last few decades
c) Then make the argument that Osaka should be a second capital of Japan and capital of West Japan
d) JRP moves in and becomes the dominate party of West Japan

Now d) becomes a stretch but JRP is allowed to dream.

Yeah. Japan is similar to Israel in that younger people without a personal experience with serious existential threat from war tend to be more militaristic and more socially conservative than their parents and grandparents, not less.


Interesting. I love peripheral Japan and think it's been screwed hard in the postwar era but I hate the JRP, so this'd be a tough call for me as an Osaka voter.

I'm not very knowledgeable about Japanese politics, but I've always had a bit of a soft spot for Abe since I have a distinct memory of reading articles by 2012 Paul Krugman praising "Abenomics." From what I remember, he was something of a Keynesian compared to the neoliberals of the opposing Democratic Party, but he didn't implement the policies nearly as far as he should have and it ended up failing. At least it was good in theory, unlike his social policies.

Politics aside though, as someone with irritable bowel syndrome I feel Abe's pain. It's not colitis, but IBS is still incredibly debilitating and often cause for great despair and hopelessness. I wish him the best of health and a speedy recovery.

For the LDP Prez election in Sept 2020, there are two ways the election will work.  

A "normal" election would involve 395 LDP MPs each getting an electoral vote plus a national vote of all LDP members (around 1 million of them) and 395 electoral college elector allocated by vote share.  If no one gets an absolute majority of the 790 electoral votes, then just the MPs vote between the top two electoral college candidates.

An "emergency" election which could be used in a mid-term election like this one would involve 395 LDP MPs each getting an electoral vote and each LDP prefecture branch appointing electors with each prefecture getting at least 3 electors each and the rest allocated by population to get to 300 electors.  If no one gets an absolute majority of the 695 electoral votes, then just the MPs vote between the top two electoral college candidates.

The argument for the  "emergency" election approach would be the need to reduce the time to organize the election since it would not involved up to 1 million LDP members voting plus the risk of large gathering for the election during COVID-19.

The person that will decide is the LDP General Secretary 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) who is also the leader of the 二階(Toshihiro) faction.   In theory  二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) should prefer the "emergency" approach since a "normal" election would favor 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) who is more popular with LDP party members but not as popular with MPs and it is clear 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) does not like 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru).  All things equal I suspect 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) is biased toward 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) if no one from the 二階(Toshihiro) faction emerges to run.  Of course 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) would have to take into account of accusations that the election result is illegitimate if LDP grassroots are not able to take part.

Once 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) decides how the election will be run then I am sure possible candidates will make up their mind to run an emerge which means we will get a clear picture of who is running and which factions are for which candidate.

Note that the 2012 LDP Prez was the first and only LDP Prez election where it had to go to the second round.   Abe won neither the plurality of the MP nor Prefecture captor vote but won in the MP only second round.  This was before the LDP party member vote system was introduced to replace the LDP prefecture chapter vote.


                                                          MP             Prefecture chapter       Total
Abe                                                    54                       87                     141
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)                          34                     165                     199
町村信孝(Machimura Nobutaka)              27                        7                       34
石原伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru)                  58                       38                       96
林 芳正(Hayashi Yoshimasa)                  24                        3                        27

Since Abe and 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) were the top 2 electoral vote winners the MP vote in a second round which went
                                               MP
Abe                                        108
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)               89

So Abe won despite not winning either the MP vote nor Prefecture chapter vote and only won the second round because it was MP only.  Had there been no second round of if the second round also included Prefecture chapter then 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  would have won.

You can see why 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  is holding a grudge thinking he was robbed by the system.

What is funny is the anti-石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) forces this time around including people like Abe, 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro), 麻生太郎(Tarō Asō), 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) etc etc might gang up to both pick the election type best to stop 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) and perhaps join forces to stop 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) in the election itself.  So 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) might get "robbed" again in 2020.

I remember that after the end of Junichiro Koizumi’s tenure as PM in 2006, there was a stretch of six years where a series of PMs all served for less than two years each. That situation lasted until Abe took the reigns again in 2012. Now that Abe is leaving again, is there a significant chance of a repeat of the 2006-2012 situation with PMs?

The 2006-2012 situation has recurred periodically throughout postwar Japan's political history (there was a similar revolving door between Nakasone and Koizumi in the late 80s and 90s). So I don't know but my heart says maybe.

How does this alter the possibilities relating to when the next general election takes place?

岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) and 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) have already announced that they will run in the Sept LDP Prez race. 

麻生太郎(Tarō Asō) already stated he will not run which should not be a surprise given his age and the fact that he led the LDP to an disastrous defeat in 2009.   This does open the way for 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) to run since 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) is in the 麻生(Aso) faction. 

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) has indicated that he will not run but that could change.  One problem for him is that he was close to the now disgraced LDP MP 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) who along with his Upper House MP wife have been both charged of vote buying.

Foreign Minister 茂木敏充(Motegi Toshimitsu) who is a member of the 竹下(Takesh**ta) faction will most likely run.  The  竹下(Takesh**ta) faction is the successor faction of the old Tanaka faction is is considered "non-mainstream" within the LDP.  This means he will get support of the   竹下(Takesh**ta) faction  and no more then that.

It is also possible that LDP election chief strategist 下村博文(Shimomura Hakubun) of the 細田(Hosoda) faction might run.  The 細田(Hosoda) faction is the largest LDP faction and also the faction Abe was a member of (he "resigned" from this faction once he became the PM.)  If he were to run that could split the 細田(Hosoda) faction vote that would otherwise go to Abe's ally 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) who himself does not belong to any faction.

A topic of great debate within the LDP.  麻生太郎(Tarō Asō) is pushing for a snap election ASAP after the new LDP PM is elected and installed to get a new mandate.  He indicated that after he took over as PM in 2008 he should have gone for an early election ASAP.  Waiting until 2009 exhausted his goodwill and the LDP was crushed.  Others in LDP felt that an early election in the middle of COVID-19 is hard to justify and could backfire on the LDP by angry voters that sees the LDP putting the party interest above that of Japan.   

The various Chinese language media are already categorizing the various possible LDP PM candidates as pro-Beijing or pro-Taipei.  The consensus of both pro-PRC and pro-ROC media discussions seems to be:

石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) is for sure pro-Taipei as well as 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) although 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) is viewed as more moderate than 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) in his anti-Beijing views.

岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) is viewed as pro-Beijing and despite being fairly open in his anti-PRC views Defense Minister 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) is viewed as a closet pro-Beijing by both pro-Beijing and pro-Taipei media.  The Chinese language media all point to the fact that 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)'s father 河野 洋平(Kōno Yōhei) who was the leader of the LDP splinter LL 1984-1986 before merging it back into the LDP as well as LDP Prez in 1993-1995 was well known for his pro-Beijing views.  The Chinese media of all sides seems convinced that  河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)'s anti-Beijing talk is mostly to cater to the surge in anti-PRC feeling in the Japanese population in 2020 as well as to align with PM Abe.

First post-Abe resignation poll from Kyodo.

Who should be next PM

石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)                36
河野太郎(Kōno Tarō)                    14
小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō)        11
菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)               11
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)               8

Note this is poll of all voters and not all LDP members.  In such LDP members poll I would expect 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  to have a lead but a smaller one.

PR vote

LDP             49  !!!
KP                4
PNHK           0
JRP              5
DPP              2
CDP            12
RS               1
SDP             1
JCP              3

LDP PR vote surges to massive 49 most likely due to interest in the LDP leadership race and with Abe gone old pro-LDP but anti-Abe voters will come out to support LDP.

Looks like the 二階(Toshihiro) faction will come out to back 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) which means 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)  is more likely to run.  And if he does run he will have de facto Abe support which will also mean that the large 細田(Hosoda) faction will be de facto be behind him.  Big Mo for 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)  if true especially because  二階(Toshihiro) faction leader 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) is also the LDP general secretary and will decide on election format.

List of LDP factions

細田(Hosoda) faction - 97 members  - Abe's faction will most like back 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)
麻生(Aso) faction - 56 members - not clear, could form alliance with  二階(Toshihiro) faction
竹下(Takesh**ta) faction - 54 members - also not clear
岸田(Kishida) faction - 47 members - clearly for 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) 
二階(Toshihiro) faction - 47 members - seems to be coming out for 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)
石破(Ishiba) faction - 19 members  - clearly for 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)
石原(Ishihara) faction - 11 members
No factions - 64 members

With rumors of 二階(Toshihiro) faction backing 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) and a possible alliance between 二階(Toshihiro) faction  and 麻生(Aso) faction  it seems that Abe is working behind the scenes to wrap this one up for 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) ahead of time locking out Abe's old time rival 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru).

Well, this LDP Prez election is to only finish off the current term until Sept 2021.  So the new LDP leader leads the LDP to a significant victory in the Lower House election that will certainly come sooner than later, then he can go on to be PM for the next 3-4 years.  If not, even if LDP-KP pulls out a bare majority there is a good chance the new LDP Prez and PM will be replaced in the Sept 2021 LDP Prez election and potentially starting another round of 1 year PMs.  Lets be clear. the next election will produce an outcome that range from LDP-KP 2/3 majority landslide to bare LDP-KP majority.  LDP-KP losing their majority is pretty much out of the question.

Looks like 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) will officially enter the race on Tuesday.  Given the support of the key swing 二階(Toshihiro) faction he has to be seen as the front runner now.

It seems in the discussions between LDP general secretary 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) and other LDP faction leaders there is a consensus to go with the  "emergency" election procedure which would exclude the LDP rank and file voters and have a vote only based on MPs and LDP prefecture chapter leaders/representatives.  The reasons they are going to give is of course COVID-19 as the reason to adopt an "emergency" election procedure.   Of course there might be a snap election right after the LDP Prez election which would make a mockery of the argument that COVID-19 makes it unsafe to have an election.

This victory for the pro-Abe forces is a long time coming.  Right after the 2016 Upper House elections Abe decided to  form an alliance with his long time rival 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) by making him LDP General Secretary.  The deal is clear, 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) was clearly getting to old to become PM after Abe moves on so he decided to sell what he had to get a share of the power.  What Abe got out of it is for 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) to throw his power behind Abe's preferred choice for successor.  The deal is now playing out as Abe moves on.

At this stage I cannot see how it is not  菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide).  The only chance 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) had was that the election includes the vote of LDP rank and file and even then it would have been tough.  Now it seems insurmountable.

Kind of a random question with all the big events happening now, but how does the Zainichi Korean population in Japan vote in Japanese elections?

Obviously referring to the group who has become citizens, not the permanent residents (who I assume do not have voting rights in Japan).

小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō)  has endorsed 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) for LDP Prez even though 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) have not thrown his hat into the ring yet.  These two are clearly the future of the LDP.  菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) will be 72 soon and cannot last more than 1 or 2 election cycles.   At some stage in their careers 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) will most likely become PM just like 小泉進次郎(Koizumi Shinjirō) will become PM sometime after him.

I think a lot of them are not Japanese citizens and cannot vote as you pointed out.  It is clear they will vote Center-Left since it is at the margins Center-Right parties that end to question their loyalties.  Back in 2015 when there were significant protests against the new Security Laws pro-LDP groups accused the protesters of being ethnic Koreans and supported financially by the DPRK.

What are Suga and Ishiba like? Ultra-hawkish economic wets like Abe, or would one or both of them be a change of pace?

I think we need to rename this thread.

I nominate "Japan General Discussion: Abe Checks Out."

I do not know much about their economic policy views.  I would say that 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) would be a less hawkish and more technocratic version of Abe while 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) will be more Hawkish than Abe.  I think overall 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) would prioritize domestic economic concerns over foreign policy while   石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) will prioritize Japan external strategic position over domestic economic concerns.

I think with 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) becoming the next LDP PM greatly increases the chances of a snap election.  There is a bloc of pro-LDP but anti-Abe voters that would come out to vote LDP in a post-Abe world.  But the longer PM 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) delays that election the more this bloc of voters will realize that 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) is really Abe II.  If someone like  石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) or 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) were to take over then a delay of a few months for these pro-LDP but anti-Abe voters to see them operate differently from Abe would enhance their turnout. 

Another version of the downside of having 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) at the helm is that he is very involved with several of Abe's scandals with a few of his own given the fact that 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) is the sort of backroom dealer sort of politician.  The now disgraced LDP MP 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) who along with his Upper House MP wife have been both charged of vote buying was know to be a crony of Abe but it was 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) that connected the Kawai clan to Abe so 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) cannot wash himself of this scandal.

All things equal if it is 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) at the helm I suspect LDP-KP will lose seats the next Lower House election but if someone like  石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) or 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) were to take over I can see LDP-KP gaining seats from 2017 elections. 

麻生(Aso) faction comes out in favor of 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) which most likely ends any chance that 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) can win or even bother running.

LDP has decide to go with the "emergency" procedure for Sept 14 LDP Prez election.  It will be 395 LDP MPs each getting a vote and 141 prefecture delegates (3 each from the 47 LDP prefecture chapters) each getting a vote.  If so then there is no point in voting.  菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) will announce formally today or tomorrow that he will enter the race and he will win in a landslide victory.  We might as well focus on what happens next like will there be an early snap election and the situation of the CDP-DPP merger.  Any early election will most likely create a LDP-KP landslide and Center-Left Opposition unity with JCP will be necessary to stop LDP-KP from gaining seats. 

My guess for LDP Prez vote

                                            MP            LDP Chapter vote            Total
菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)          325                      77                       402
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)             22                      56                        78     
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           47                       8                         55     

Current state of the opposition merger

()

To quell simmering anger at the LDP grassroots level for being left out of the LDP Prez election, 42 out of the 47 LDP prefecture captors have decided to hold primaries to determine the 3 electors each chapter will send.  Of course it will not make a difference one way or another. 

If a snap election is called when will it take place?

Most likely October.

This is the new party


()

CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) has made it clear he will run for the leadership of the new combined CDP-DPP party.  It is clear he will be elected with a large majority.

A lot of the DPP MPs that did not join the rump reformed DPP but also did not join the new combined CDP-DPP are either looking to join LDP or are PR MPs associated with labor unions that decided not to back the new CDP-DPP party.  They know that joining the rump DPP will be going no where so most likely they will try to be independents but allied with the new CDP-DPP party.  Main problem is many of them were elected on the PR slate so not sure what do they do when re-election comes around.   

Latest Ashai poll of party support has an amazing

LDP        40
KP           2
JRP          1
PNHK       0
DPP         1
CDP         3
SDP         0
JCP          3

Most of the non-LDP supporter have all "gone underground" given the news of the LDP Prez election dominates the new cycle.

Suga should go for a snap election right after he is made PM to cash in.  His window of opportunity might not be that large.

Are those figures typos?

Well yes, that poll is........remarkable.

No. That is what the poll right now show.  This is a poll of party support and NOT PR vote intentions where I would still expect CDP to be a double digits .  Note that historically the issue of social acceptability always biases responses toward the ruling party with non-LDP voters choosing to identify as independents at different rates depending on the circumstances.  Note that Abe resigning due to illness means that many non-LDP voters will view it as "not proper" to support an opposition party and will instead identify as independent.  

My usual rule of thumb to translate party support vote to PR is

a) LDP+KP PR vote is LDP+KP party support plus 8
b) Assume KP always has PR 13.5 so LDP support is a) minus 13.5
c) Driple JRP and CDP party support numbers to be their PR vote (make it double if it is close to an election)  
d) Double JCP party support numbers to be their PR vote

KP has high social sigma so many KP supporters "hide out" as LDP supporters given the LDP-KP alliance.

So this poll seems to indicate that LDP-KP PR vote will be around 50 which is enough for an easy landslide in a snap election.  Given the circumstances of the LDP Prez race being in the news and rules c) and d) do not really work anyway but a) and b) should still operate fine.

Given that (as per my understanding) Suga doesn’t have much of a base of support of his own, is it possible that Abe might attempt a comeback as leader in a couple of years time, provided he has his illness under control again?

Who is everyone else backing then? Because that is nowhere near close to 100.

As long as Suga leads the LDP to victory in the next couple of election I see no reason to think there will be an Abe comeback.

Understand that outside the core LDP Abe is not that popular.  The top reason for support of Abe in every poll since Abe's comeback in 2012 is "there is no one else."

In such a poll most independents are really opposition supporters (CDP and JRP) that are hiding out as independents and will vote opposition in the next election.

After the CDP-DPP merger the Lower house now stands at

LDP                             285
CDP-DPP (name TDB)   106
KP                                29
JCP                              12
JRP                              11
OPPN                           10 (pro-Opposition independents, mostly ex-DPP)
Rump  DPP                     7
HP                                 2
PNHK                             1 (a disgraced JRP MP that went over to PNHK)
Independents                 3 (1 disgraced LDP MP, 1 disgraced JRP MP, 1 LDP rebel)

2017 election results were

LDP                            284 (including 4 that were retroactively nominated)
KP                               29
CDP                             55
HP                               50
JCP                              12
JRP                              11
SDP                               2
OPPN                           22 (pro-Opposition independents)

Still an unusual way of doing polling these days.

It is not the polling firm's fault the voters act like this.  It is an issue of culture.

Osaka city assembly voted in favor of the Osaka Metropolis plan paving the way for a referendum in Nov

()

Note that LDP joined forces with JCP to vote against the proposal while KP supported the JRP.  In 2019 local elections the LDP pretty much forced the KP to run as an ally of the LDP in Osaka prefecture and JRP won in a landslide anyway.  It seems now the KP is doing what KP does which is drift toward the top dog which in Osaka is JRP.  JRP is really an Osaka based Libertarian faction of the LDP that party-ized itself.  The Osaka LDP factional feud with JRP is so deep and intense that they have no problems joining forces with JCP to take on JRP.

First Osaka poll on  Osaka Metropolis plan has For ahead of Against 49.2 to 39.6

()


Breakdown by party has JRP voters for 86.1 to 8.8.  LDP voters are actually only narrowly against 45.3 to 49.3 despite LDP caucus being very much against.  KP voters are more opposed 26 to 57.4 despite KP party caucus being for the plan.  JCP voters being very much against 3.9 to 83.0

()

With Suga now on a clear path to victory public opinion now shifts in his favor

()

Now for support for LDP Prez is

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)          38
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)           25
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)          5

Critically for LDP voters it is

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)          49
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)           23
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)          6

So Suga pretty much have majority support of LDP grassroots as well.

Yomiuri poll has an even higher level of support for Suga with him getting 46% support of Japan voters and 63% of LDP supporters.
()

Abe cabinet approval rate surges after Abe resigns
()


LDP support also surges back up while all other opposition party support falls
()
()

Sept 10 will be the leadership race for the new CDP-DPP-SDP unified party.  If will be current CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) vs current DPP MP 泉健太(Izumi Kenta).  枝野幸男(Edano Yukio)  is for keeping the party name CDP for the new unified party while 泉健太(Izumi Kenta) want to go back to DP 民主党(Democratic Party) of 2016-2017 before it split into CDP and HP (later DPP).  枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) should win by a mile.

Sankei weekend magazine 夕刊フジ(Zakzak or Evening Fuji) projection for Lower House snap election.  This magazine has a record, like many other media houses, of underestimating LDP before election season to drive up magazine sales.

            District     PR        Total
LDP         203       68         271
KP              9       23           32
JRP           12       22           34
PNHK          0        0             0
DPP            7        2             9   (rump DPP)
CDP          51      43           94   (CDP-DPP unified party)
RS             0         4            4
SDP           0         1             1
JCP            1       13           14
OPPN         6         0             6

Total        289     176       465

()

Had the 2019 Upper House PR vote been replicated in the Lower house elections the result would have been

LDP         77
KP           24
JRP         14
PNHK        0
DPP        10
CDP        31
RS            5
SDP          1
JCP         14

So this projection has LDP losing some support to JRP relative to 2019.  Given the fact that LDP always does better on Upper House PR vote (because in the Upper House PR vote you can vote for a candidate as opposed to a party and have that vote accrue to the party the LDP higher PR candidate quality will inflate the LDP PR vote) this is not unexpected.  Still I think this estimate underestimates LDP and overestimates JRP and CDP in the PR section and most likely in the district section as well.  Given current polling LDP-KP should be able to get 2/3 majority landslide pretty easily.   

LDP Minister of Defense and possible candidate for LDP Prez race 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) indicated that he expected a snap election in October to get it out of the way before the 2021 Olympics.  In other news KP seems to be against a snap election this early but most likely if the LDP faction leaders agree it the LDP will have its way on this.

https://twitter.com/office50824963/status/1303945224029220864?s=20 (https://twitter.com/office50824963/status/1303945224029220864?s=20)

Edano wins leadership vote as expected

He wins 107-42
()

Also for party name CDP wins 94-54 over DP (Democratic Party)

With Abe resigning even the approval of government of repose to COVID-19 has gone up

()

With more than half of the 141 prefectural chapter votes decided it is

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)  has 52, 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  has 27, 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) has 8

Out of the 141 prefecture chapter votes it is so far

菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide)     66
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)      35
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)    10

Landslide win for Suga
Suga: 377
Kishida: 89
Ishiba: 68

terrible result for Ishiba

Results for prefecture chapters
Suga: 89
Ishiba: 42
Kishida: 10

Results for LDP parliamentarians
Suga: 288
Kishida: 79
Ishiba: 26

Ishiba is really unpopular among his colleagues and LDP elites.

石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) actually did better than I predicted in the MP vote  My prediction was more based on what the the faction leaders had indicated they would recommend. 

Back in 2012 Ishiba lost to Abe 1-on-1 108-89 in the MP vote.  What is different this time is Abe had since built a much stronger alliance system with the various factions to deliver this landslide victory.

二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro), leader of the 二階(Toshihiro) faction reappointed as LDP General Secretary.  It was his support that made Suga's victory beyond doubt and he is getting his reward for backing the winner.

Distribution of the LDP prefecture chapter vote. Each LDP prefecture chapter gets 3 vote.  Most prefecture held primaries to determine the distribution of their 3 votes.  

()

Suga strongest in the Greater Tokyo area

Quick and dirty map of the LDP prefecture vote:

()

Red=three Suga votes, pink=two; dark green=three Ishiba votes, light green/chartreuse=two; gold=three Kishida votes, yellow=two; grey=one vote for each.

jaichind can correct any mistakes. The overall macro pattern seems to be that Suga crushed it in Eastern Japan--especially, but not only, the Tokyo area--whereas Western Japan was more competitive at least on the LDP-prefectural-elite level.

The home prefectures are Kanagawa (immediately south of Tokyo) for Suga, Tottori (dark green on the Sea of Japan coastline) for Ishiba, and Hiroshima (gold on the Inland Sea coastline) for Kishida. My guess is that local/regional clientelist networks and a mild favorite son effect probably explain the greater competitiveness of Western Japan as a whole.

Chinese language news media are saying 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) most likely will be made the Chief Cabinet Secretary.  If so then 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) might be the front runner for the LDP Prez after Suga moves on.  I think 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) jumped the gun when he said that he is sure that there will be an early election in October.  That damaged him.  Not sure if he is still in the running but the Chinese language press clearly thinks he is.

2018 LDP Prez election Abe-Ishiba vote margin for LDP grassroots voters.  Red is where Ishiba is ahead and Blue is where Abe is ahead.  Pattern pretty similar to LDP chapter results this time

()

岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) clearly over performed in the MP vote.  The number of votes he got well exceeded those in his how 岸田(Kishida) faction. He was able to eat into a lot of those MPs that were not associated with any faction.   I figured they will go with Suga but it seems 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) got a bunch of them.  石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) got only his faction's MP and not much else beyond that.  It is amazing how Abe was able to turn the entire party's MP outside his faction against him even though 8 years ago he was reasonably popular with LDP MPs.

How do you pronounce 'Suga'? Because we need a new title.

"Soo-gah", with the "oo" clipped and shortened. I propose something like "Gimme Some Suga, Baby". Or maybe we should start a new thread entirely?

Well given the age of the new PM (72) we might need to change it again before too long :)

I thought Japan was moving away from gerontocracy?

Go2senkyo poll on party support (telephone part)

LDP    31.4 (+1.8 )
KP       4.2 (+1.1)
JRP      4.1 (-0.4)
PNHK   0.2 (-0.2)
DPP      0.8 (-0.3)
CDP     8.9 (-1.8 )
RS       0.9 (-0.2)
SDP     0.6 (-0.2)
JCP      4.9 (-0.4)

Clear rise in LDP-KP support at the expense of everyone else

()

PR vote (telephone)

LDP    38.2 (-8.7)
KP       6.3  (-0.7)
PNHK   0.7 (-2.8 )
JRP      9.4 (-3.1)
DPP     1.2 (-0.1)
CDP   18.5 (+3.3)
RS       1.4 (-1.3)
SDP     1.1 (-0.5)
JCP      6.0 (-1.3)

I think the Aug poll had some weird results so the diff are really bizarre but this PR poll gives one a better sense how the PR vote will go.  Of course one still have to shift some LDP PR votes over to KP PR as part of the KP voters "hiding out" as LDP voters due to social stigma.

()

New thread ahoy, maybe time to lock this one?