Talk Elections

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United States Presidential Election, 2016:
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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA):
69,947,315 | 51.18% | 350 EVs
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) / Governor Mike Pence (R-IN):
58,890,774 | 43.09% | 188 EVs

United States Senate Elections, 2016:
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Democrats: 50 (+6)
Republicans: 48 (-6)

United States House of Representatives Elections, 2016:
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Democrats: 199 (+11)
Republicans: 236 (-11)

United States Gubernatorial Elections, 2016:
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Great Start!

Pretty good representation of my predictions in the middle of October 2016 lol

Yeah, same. Things are about to get interesting, though... ;)

I'm interested.

The senate map image of yours looks D+6, but you summarize it as D+5.  I assume you meant to have Republicans win in Missouri.

No, Missouri is right. The summary is wrong. Thanks for pointing that out!

I would give Clinton OH, ME-02, and possibly IA.

If she's winning AZ and GA, she'd win OH.  There'd be significant numbers of AA voters in Cleveland and Columbus pissed off enough to vote after hearing the n-word tape.

>Senators Kander and Feingold

This is clearly the superior timeline.

I just took the highest gap between Trump and Clinton in Gallup polling at any point during the campaign (eight), then uniformly swung the actual results to reflect that margin (three points from Trump to Clinton, and three points from each Republican candidate to each Democratic candidate). The n-word tape is more of a means to an end than anything.


Thanks, guys!

Honestly, (minus the tape) this is pretty much what I thought would happen, except with Trump winning Georgia and Arizona, on November 7.

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Getting Started:

The Clinton Administration hit the ground running, having started putting together its team mere days after the Democratic National Convention concluded. Following her unceremonious inauguration (attended by a crowd of medium size) President Clinton headed over to the Oval Office to sign two sets of executive orders: one expanding protections for LGBT people against workplace discrimination, and one strengthening protections for public-sector unions. Between inaugural balls, she made time to meet with Cabinet Secretaries and Congressmen. Her approval rating sat at a respectable, if underwhelming, 51%.

The Clinton Cabinet boiled with controversy from the outset. Sheryl Sandberg's nomination led many to question her qualifications for such a critical position, aside from being wealthy, female, and a Friend of Hillary. John Podesta's controversial involvement with Russian lobbying firms, as well as the infamous email leaks, sounded alarms as he was dispatched to Foggy Bottom. Howard Schultz faced blistering criticism over his time as the CEO of Starbucks, with over a dozen disgruntled employees publicly accusing him of unlawfully withholding pay. However, Schumer was able to work his magic, and the entire Cabinet was confirmed. No nominee hit the 60-vote threshold that was required for confirmation prior to 2012.

Policy:

Clinton's first priority was winning confirmation of Judge Merrick Garland to the late Antonin Scalia's seat on the Supreme Court. As it gradually became clear that it would be impossible to peel away the nine Republican votes necessary to invoke cloture, Clinton and Majority Leader Schumer elected to nuke the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees. There was a massive outcry from conservatives, especially Donald Trump, who referred to the action as "the first step towards a fachist dictatorship! [sic]" Garland was ultimately confirmed 53-47 after months of ugly vote-wrangling. McConnell and Ryan railed against "the great court robbery," and would continue to do so until years after President Clinton left office.

Next, Clinton set out to rebuild the nation's infrastructure. Dispatching Vice President Kaine and Secretary Mica to round up support for a $300 billion plan, the Administration was able to find support among both moderate Republicans in swing districts and arch-conservative Trumpites whose constituents had been swayed in favor of the proposal by their former leader. The result, which allocated a more modest $125 billion to the cause, was rammed by Republicans as wasteful and by Sandersites as insufficient, but passed both houses comfortably. The bill, signed into law in April, was the high watermark of the Clinton Administration's first two years.

Immigration, on the other hand, was an albatross around the neck of the new administration. Clinton quickly found that there was no way to get illegal immigrants the path to citizenship she'd wanted, but set out to tackle it despite very long odds. As McConnell and Ryan waffled on the plan publicly to mask negotiations with Clinton, a group of twenty House Democrats led by California's Ro Khanna and Hawaii's Tulsi Gabbard threw a wrench into Clinton's plans by forming the "Justice Caucus" and refusing to support any plan that did not provide a path to citizenship. The congressmen were lambasted by their Democratic colleagues for functionally killing the proposal in the cradle when they would likely face no electoral consequences for their actions. After a few failed attempts to send through bills that included a path, Clinton was forced to pull the initiative, incensing Latinos and raising questions about Clinton's ability to lead.

A Plot Twist:

Soon, a rift began to emerge between Hillary Clinton and the Democrats' Congressional leadership. Clinton blamed the emerging Justice Democrats for the party's woes, along with the party's shrinking right flank. Schumer and Pelosi wooed rabblerousers with carrots instead of sticks, promising those who fell in line the chance to sew large subsidies and elaborate pork projects for their communities into the budget. However, they were undermined by their President, who grew abrasive towards the rebellious congressmen, at one point referring to Illinois Representative Dan Lipinski as a "buck-toothed little scumbag" in a conversation leaked to the Washington Times for loudly opposing her initiatives on reproductive health.

These tensions came to a head during the passage of the budget. After numerous delays, largely due to spats between the President and the Pelosi-Schumer power center, the Administration proposed a budget. As with many of the Clinton Administration's blunders, they had tried to spread their political capital far too thin. Clinton had taken the unorthodox step of boosting Border Patrol funding in the interest of prepping for another immigration proposal, which pleased red-state Democrats but incensed Latinos. She had shut off the spigot on subsidies to coal and oil companies, which made liberals happy but enraged Joe Manchin and the conservadems. Many conservatives flat-out refused to support any budget that the President proposed, further complicating the Administration's efforts. The final result was a hodgepodge budget of liberal triumphs and almost as many conservative concessions, mashed together after months of pushing deadlines back further and further and narrowly averting shutdowns time and time again. Investors fretted over the mess in Washington, leveling off the stock market after months of record highs -- just as the 2017 elections approached.

:/

Just noticed NC-04 and 12 go R while NC-13 goes D.

There are a few mistakes in the map (NM as well), but I'm not taking the time to fix that shizzle

Are Gillespie and Northam still the nominees? Or did Barbara Comstock/Tom Davis or Perriello win the primaries?

We’ll cover this more in-depth in today’s installment, but here’s the rub:
 - Gillespie won his nomination with a lower percentage of the vote, but by a wider margin, due to the candidacy of a conservative State Senator who pulled about 17% of the vote, mostly from Stewart.
 - Northam won the nomination by about four over Perriello.

So slightly less division in the R primary, but more in the D primary?

Also I hope the primary vote is at least even as Rs should be more energized.

There's more division in both parties, it's just that it works to Gillespie's advantage among Republicans. The primary vote is very, very heavily Republican-slanted.

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The Elections:

In the 2017 elections, Democrats were roundly drubbed. Former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie defeated Lt. Governor Ralph Northam 52-42 to recapture Virginia's governorship for Republicans -- almost a mirror image of the state's 53-41 vote for Hillary Clinton. State Senator Thomas Kean Jr. defeated Phil Murphy, a former Ambassador and banking executive, 47-45 to retain New Jersey's Governorship (in spite of Chris Christie's persistently abysmal approval ratings). In the special Senatorial election to replace Vice President Kaine, Congressman Gerry Connolly held a critical Senate seat by racking up huge margins over Ben Cline, a young state legislator, in his native NoVA -- but faced months of legal challenges over his precarious 300-vote win. In these states' legislative elections, Democrats made dismally small gains, especially considering how many Republican-held seats in all chambers were won by Clinton a year prior. Agriculture Secretary Dave Loebsack's 48-46 Clinton seat was taken by State Public Defender Adam Gregg in a lopsided 54-41 victory, as Democrats faced an unusually tough election in Ed Perlmutter's suburban Denver district and massively underperformed in Mayoral races in New York and Los Angeles. Worried whispers circled around Washington as President Clinton and national Democrats made conspicuously few remarks about the election season.

Blame for the defeats was passed around. Irate progressives blamed the "establishment" for ensuring the nomination of a former Goldman Sachs executive in New Jersey and a relatively bland doctor in Virginia. Clintonites, on the other hand, accused Tom Perriello for damaging Northam in a primary that turned increasingly bitter in its final days, and blamed liberals for staying home in an off-year. Republicans, factionalized but functional, licked their lips at the chaos.

Three days after the elections, Senator Joe Manchin and Governor Jim Justice took the stage at a press conference in Huntington, West Virginia. Joined by Speaker Ryan and the state's Republican Congressional Representatives, they begrudgingly cited their inability to work with the Clinton Administration as the reason they were leaving the Democratic Party. Another reason, in all likelihood, was polling -- for example, Manchin trailed Evan Jenkins by a yawning sixteen points in the RCP average of his Senate race. This was not due to the state's personal dislike of him, but simply because of their hatred of President Clinton, who they had come to associate completely with the Democrats. This wasn't unique to West Virginia -- Clinton's approvals had continued a slide from their highs in the spring, and now wavered abysmally between 39% and 42% in Gallup's daily tracker.

Foreign Policy Recap:

President Clinton's first true test on the world stage came in early April, as reports emerged that Syrian President Assad had carried out a chemical attack on the village of Khan Shaykun, killing over 100 innocent civilians, including more than twenty children. Intent to enforce the red line that Obama had proposed years earlier, Clinton ordered a strike on the air base that had launched the attack. Fifty cruise missiles were launched from U.S. carriers in the Mediterranean, destroying dozens of planes, killing nearly fifty Syrian army soldiers, and essentially ending the base's functionality. While some within the government criticized Clinton for not warning Putin of the attack when there were Russian troops on the base, most people praised her for decisive action as the civil war continued as usual while ISIS's gains were slowly rolled back.

North Korea proved to be a much more treacherous situation for Clinton's administration. As the totalitarian regime rapidly improved its missile technology, the U.S. took the unconventional step of dispatching 93-year-old former President Jimmy Carter to smooth over relations, and Wendy Sherman successfully maneuvered tougher sanctions through the UN. However, days after passage of the sanctions, North Korea shot an ICBM over Japan's northernmost island, further provoking the U.S. Clinton attempted to tread the difficult line between pleasing progressives and countering hawks by traveling to South Korea and visiting the demilitarized zone, but was unable to avoid criticism from vocal neocons like Senator Tom Cotton for "capitulating to totalitarian communism." After an October incident in which a group of South Korean patrol boats was sunk by rogue North Korean forces, killing more than a dozen soldiers, the U.S. was criticized for an unemotional response that seemed reluctant to threaten military action. As the 2018 campaign began to amp up, Republicans ads conjured up images of nuclear holocaust as candidates pledged to "take tough action" against Kim and his hermit kingdom, and the increasingly boisterous Trump proclaimed that "if [he] was President, we would be bombing their country into The Stone Age!"

A good start. POD is no Comey email

It says at the beginning of the first post the POD is another Trump tape

Very well-written and very painful to read.

what happened to garcetti?

Garcetti was appointed Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.


Thanks, guys.

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The Shifts:

President Clinton attempted a final set of policy pushes as the 2018 midterms approached. First among them was a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United v. FEC, which she had promised to introduce during her first thirty days but abandoned in favor of infrastructure and immigration. While it actually pulled a significant amount of Republican support, enough conservatives thrashed the proposal as a "blatant assault on free speech" (Scott Walker), "a giant step towards totalitarian rule" (Ted Cruz), and "the single worst legislative proposal in modern American history" (Tom Cotton) to keep the amendment from gathering the broad-based support it needed. Dismally, it was pulled after weeks of hype but a mere four days on the national stage, further enraging the Democrats' increasingly volatile left wing.

Through spring, Clinton attempted to change course: no major policy movements beyond some reforms to the VA Department and a hodgepodge of items intended to plug minor holes in Obamacare, lots of meeting with foreign dignitaries, looking Presidential, etc. She managed to stay out of trouble, even as Republicans pressed forward with the Uranium One probes, and her approvals leveled off at about 44%.

A Tragedy:

On July 4th of 2018, during the heat of the midterm campaign, a coordinated international terrorist attack struck the United States for the first time since September 11th. A rented U-Haul packed with explosives jumped a police barrier and barreled down Avenue C, running down dozens of people gathered to watch the fireworks before detonating its load and partially demolishing one of Stuyvesant Town's 15-story residential towers. Simultaneously, shooters attacked a popular nightclub in Midtown Manhattan, a ferry to Newark, and the NYPD's headquarters in Civic Center before detonating suicide vests. When the dust settled, a staggering 687 Americans had died, including nearly forty police officers, and over two thousand had been wounded. ISIS, which had begun to regain some territory in Northern Iraq due the ongoing conflict between the Iraqi Government and the Kurds, immediately claimed responsibility. After a brief flag-rallying, Clinton's popularity plummeted to its lowest since the previous fall as both parties questioned how the dubious purchases of chemicals and firearms by the attackers went unnoticed by intelligence agencies, and whether the Clinton/Obama approach to the Middle East was doing enough to prevent Islamic Terrorism.

The issue of terrorism, which would ultimately poll as the most important issue of the 2018 campaign, snowballed bigly into a defining issue for both Clinton and the Republican Party. The day after the New York massacres, Tom Cotton and Lindsey Graham introduced a plan to send 20,000 ground troops to combat militants, and to grant the federal government broad surveillance powers. Progressives reacted with outrage, but Clinton -- sensing an urgent need for action -- took more measured steps. Former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter became a special envoy to Middle Eastern regions, tasked with crafting a regional army that incorporated no more than 10,000 American troops. The final plan, with a military force of Egyptians, Jordanians, Turks, Americans, and others front and center; was approved narrowly despite some skepticism from both sides of the policy debate. This issue, along with reforms to domestic intelligence programs, would remain in the front of the electorate's mind well beyond Clinton's exit from the national stage.

The economy, which had begun to turn up after a slight slump the previous fall, abruptly stagnated after the New York attacks. While Clintonites claimed (and still claim today) that the downturn was caused by the terrorist strike, most economists agree that it was a dual consequence of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to a meaningful level for the first time in ages and the tech bubble's slow slide into implosion.

The October Surprise:

Facing chasmic polling deficits only a few months out from the elections, Democrats trotted out a new platform that they labeled "A Better Deal:" a robust public option for the healthcare system, shutting corporate tax loopholes, organized labor protections, and a minimum wage increase. Berniecrats like Feingold and Sanders himself were united in support of the plan with people like Bill Nelson and Heidi Heitkamp. This boosted their flagging poll numbers, put the unpopular Republican Congress on the defensive, and gave many Democrats hope that losses would be minimal as November 6th drew ever closer.

However, this was not the end. The final significant events of the 2018 campaign began on Monday, October 31st. They were appropriately spoopy.

First, five of Chuck Schumer's staffers resigned hours before turning themselves in to the NYPD. They were then transferred to federal authorities, who charged them with operating a multi-million-dollar insider trading scheme, using information brazenly lifted from government computers.

Then, The Washington Post released a bombshell tape of Hillary Clinton referring to Senator Bernie Sanders as "senile," and deriding his voters as "only a step above people like Trump" in remarks delivered to a friendly crowd at a fundraiser in San Diego.

Finally, on election eve, Breitbart News released a memo that was purportedly sent from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Assistant Secretary of State Jose Fernandez. The memorandum, allegedly personally written and signed by the now-President, clocked in at fifty words, and directed Fernandez to approve of the deal in order to "take care of business for us" while asking for "the usual discretion pertaining to our exchanges with Russia."

On November 5th, rolling averages of polls pegged the generic Congressional ballot at 49-45 Republican. What would happen next was anyone's guess.

A great and fascinating TL. I've been thinking about making a Clinton TL for a while; and have generally came to the same conclusion as you did, which is that (as democrats admitted) she would have been an unpopular one-term President, who would have faced a primary from the left in 2020, and then would lose to Marco Rubio/Nikki Haley etc.

The problem was always that the House wasn't going to flip in 2016, and the democrats were going to lose heavily in 2018 (I mean I still think it requires a miracle for them not to lose a Senate Seat in RL in 2018). Clinton was always going to be a place-holder for Obama's legacy

Thanks!

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I think I would actually cry if this happened

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Results:

The 2018 midterms were, arguably, the worst election for Democrats since the Republican Revolution of 1994. Republicans not only regained the Senate, but shot up to their biggest majority in decades, gaining ten seats (although, due to the strange quirk of a Democratic-aligned Independent being replaced with a Democrat and a Republican being replaced with a Republican-aligned Independent, they technically only gained nine seats) to shoot up to a 59-41 majority -- their largest in the chamber since 1926. In the House, Republicans won their widest advantage since 1930, with a mind-boggling 262 seats. Governorships were even worse, as Republicans took back solidly blue states like Rhode Island and Oregon while holding all but two of the executive mansions they occupied going in. Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and newly minted RGA Chairwoman Kim Reynolds gathered for a press conference that was broadcast live from New York City, proclaiming a new era of conservative policy and eagerly looking ahead to the 2020 elections to finish the job.

Polling suggested that, as is usually the case, there was no definitive cause for the wave. Some people were upset with the stagnant economy. Some decided that it was time for a change, after nearly a decade of Democrats in the White House. Many were concerned with ethical lapses (even though the so-called "Fernandez Memo" was revealed to be a sophisticated forgery). Progressives and minorities across the country stayed home, flustered with the lack of progress on issues like immigration and healthcare, while Republican base voters were motivated to cast ballots out of raw Clinton hatred.

The Post-2018 Hype Train:

Berniecrats made hay over the fact that the only two Democrats to beat incumbent Republicans in big-ticket races were Daniel Biss of Illinois and Ben Jealous of Maryland, both Sanders-like progressives -- the former even going so far as to select a socialist Chicago Alderman as his running mate. This ignored many realities of local politics -- Illinois's economy had taken a nosedive because of squabbling between Bruce Rauner and the powerful State House Speaker Mike Madigan, and Hogan had bombed at a widely watched debate shortly before the election. However, it served to further inflame the division between the Democratic establishment and its left wing -- especially as more centrist candidates like Mike Stack, Gerry Connolly, and Steve Cloobeck blew critical races. Rumors of a left-wing 2020 challenge to the President began to swirl.

Stars were born, as they always seem to be. Biss and Jealous became heroes of the left after their critical victories, as did Maine Senator Troy Jackson and New York Governor-elect Stephanie Miner. Presidential buzz began to swirl once again around Indiana Senator Mike Pence, Ohio Senator John Kasich, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (four times in eight years). Other Republican rising stars appeared, such as Michigan Senator Tom Barrett, Ohio Governor Jon Husted, Florida Governor Adam Putnam, and Missouri Senator Eric Greitens.

Clinton's Time Runs Out:

Whatever the specifics of the wave, the facts were this: Republicans held nearly 60% of the seats in both chambers of Congress, and President Clinton had struggled to get her agenda through even with much more favorable numbers. Any progress on her agenda in the next two years was impossible. The friendly faces of Debbie Stabenow and Sherrod Brown had been replaced with hardline conservatives like Tom Barrett and Josh Mandel; Collin Peterson and Heidi Heitkamp (both light critics of the President) were swapped for Tim Miller and Tom Campbell -- both disciples of Paul Ryan, and wholehearted GOP hacks. As Clinton came to terms with the reality of the new Congress, her skyrocketing personal unpopularity, and even her slowly advancing age, she began to lose hope.

On January 2nd, 2019, President Clinton delivered her third and final Oval Office address. In it, she stated her happiness with the progress she had made so far on issues like infrastructure, labor protections, and healthcare. She was also grateful that she had been able to protect Obama's legacy, protecting Obamacare, the CFPB, and the Medicaid Expansion from Republican attacks. However, Clinton said, it was time for a change. She had decided, "after thoughtfully talking it over with [her] family," that she was not going to seek a second term in 2020.

A corrupt man with ties to top Russian oligarchs(powerful business allies of Putin) is Secretary of State?

Talk about dystopia!


Was a ~$10-11 minimum wage passed?

If that's dystopia, we may come within 80,000 votes of dystopia in real life, per the reports I based Clinton's Cabinet on.

There haven't been any minimum wage increases beyond Obama-esque stuff for federal contractors -- it came close to passage, but the votes from Senate Republicans have never quite materialized, and aren't likely to anytime soon.

When did John Kasich get to the Senate?

2018. The results post should have had him as the victor in Ohio, not Mandel — fixed now. Thanks for pointing that out.

I’ve been busy with school, but I finally have all the 2020 maps/results ready, and should be ready to finish this up over the next few days. Update tomorrow!

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The 116th Congress:
Speaker of the House: Paul Ryan (R-WI)
House Majority Leader: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
House Majority Whip: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)
Republican Conference Chair: Doug Collins (R-GA)
RCCC Chairman: Steve Stivers (R-FL)
Republican Policy Committee Chairman: Luke Messer (R-IN)

House Minority Leader: Xavier Becerra (D-CA)
House Minority Whip: Joe Crowley (D-NY)
Assistant Minority Leader: Tim Ryan (D-OH)
Democratic Caucus Chairman: Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM)
DCCC Chairman: Seth Moulton
Democratic Steering & Policy Committee Co-Chairs: Mark Pocan (D-WI) / John Yarmuth (D-KY)

Senate Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Senate Majority Whip: John Cornyn (R-TX)
Republican Conference Chairman: John Thune (R-SD)
RSCC Chairman: Cory Gardner (R-CO)
Republican Policy Committee Chairman: John Barrasso (R-WY)

Senate Minority Leader: Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Senate Minority Whip: Dick Durbin (D-NY)
DSCC Chairman: Katie McGinty (D-PA)
Democratic Policy Committee Chair: Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

The Republican leadership, coming off of a landslide victory, was changed minimally in both houses (what promotions there were were due to Majority Whip Steve Scalise's retirement).

Democrats, on the other hand, were faced with crisis. After liberals were almost bludgeoned out of existence using ads featuring Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and former President Obama took the extraordinary step of reaching out to both the Minority Leader and her internal rival, Steny Hoyer, and arranging for them both to resign their seats on January 10th. James Clyburn, one of the most influential African-Americans in the history of the House of Representatives, opted not to return to his leadership position. This combined with Clinton's retirement to shock the system -- and provide openings for non-septuagenarians to enter the Democratic hierarchy.

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Current Events:

The Republican Congress, emboldened by its massive victory, opted to stand wholly opposed to every initiative that the Clinton Administration put forward. No ifs, ands, ors, or buts. As Clinton's approval ratings hovered in the low thirties, it was clear that the 2020 elections would likely be a referendum on who could stand furthest away from the President -- and since it was clear that she would be blamed for any governmental failures, conservatives had no incentive to cooperate with her.

Clinton had to fill the seats of Supreme Court Justices Anthony Kennedy and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who passed away within a month of each other in late 2018. Confirming a new Justice would require the votes of nine Republicans. Former Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval, a center-right moderate, replaced the similarly inclined Kennedy. Clinton nominated Paul Watford, a relative liberal, to replace Ginsburg, and after a brief period in which he was refused a hearing by Mitch McConnell, he was narrowly confirmed in what would be the Clinton Administration's final real success.

The biggest news of 2019 came in September, when (after years of scrutiny) John Podesta resigned from his post as Secretary of State after being indicted for an array of financial crimes. Most pertained to his complicity Eastern European money laundering. A few were alleged pay-to-play schemes within the State Department. A few leakers in the FBI's investigation implied that the embattled Secretary had indirect connections to Paul Manafort and other lobbyists more loosely associated with the Trump Campaign, sparking many conspiracy theories about a "rigged, one-party system" among the Kyle Kulinskis of the world. In any case (although Podesta was later acquitted of most charges) the media spectacle was a disaster for Clinton. DNI Tom Donilon replaced Podesta as Secretary of State, and former General James Stavridis took his place in turn.

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The Race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination:

As Clinton's approval rating continued a slow slide to the bottom, no real A-list Democratic candidates wanted to enter the race to replace her. Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Elizabeth Warren all opted out of presidential runs, privately believing that whoever Democrats nominated was doomed.

Two frontrunners emerged as the field took shape. Terry McAuliffe, the former Governor of Virginia, found a lot of support in President Clinton's donor base, but (as a relatively uncharismatic, middle-aged white man) struggled to generate enthusiasm. Russ Feingold, a solid progressive, was the heir apparent to the Bernie wing -- and, despite worries that his extremely left-wing stances could turn off some swing voters, pulled yuge financial support from small donors, and proved to be very popular in the Midwest.

As the primaries approached, McAuliffe's flagging poll numbers began to turn off donors, and he lost ground to New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand was a gifted political operator (and a longtime ally of the President, having taken her seat in the Senate in 2009), who had positioned herself as an inoffensive third option, between the Clintonesque McAuliffe and the arch-liberal Feingold. Gillibrand was able to pull solid numbers in her native Northeast, and give McAuliffe a run for his money among African-Americans in the South.

Feingold won the Iowa Caucuses by a decisive 33-25-22 margin over his two chief competitors, but lost the critical New Hampshire primary to Gillibrand by less than two points. McAuliffe took South Carolina, Feingold took Nevada. On Super Tuesday, the Wisconsin Senator won big, with Gillibrand taking many of the critical Southern states McAuliffe would need to win the nomination and forcing him to withdraw from the race. Afterwards, Feingold's momentum proved unstoppable, and Gillibrand withdrew from the race in early April after a narrower-than-expected win in her home state of New York.

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Democratic Presidential Primaries, 2020:

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Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA)
Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT)
Fmr. Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
Businessman Tom Steyer (D-CA)
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA)

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The Race for the Republican Presidential Nomination:

The Republican primaries, by contrast, drew a number of top-tier candidates. Senator Tom Cotton, although lacking in charisma, had emerged as a leading critic of the Clinton Administration's foreign policy, and seemed to be able to unite what Charles Krauthammer dubbed "The Right Triangle" -- conservatives, Trumpite populists, and establishmentarian moderates. Governor Scott Walker, a conservative favorite from a swingy state in the Midwest, was able to pull significant establishment support, and had an extraordinary conservative resume. Marco Rubio had spent the past four years smoothing out his rehearsed speaking style, and emerged as a key player in Capitol affairs such as the immigration debate and the investigation of Secretary Podesta. Rounding out the top tier was Ben Sasse, an ardent #NeverTrumper who had earned national attention as an articulate critic of the nominations of Merrick Garland and Paul Watford to the Supreme Court.

As the campaign went on, Cotton found himself competing with several other minor candidates for votes in the "Trumpist" lane, and adopted a strikingly populist tone on the trail. This stirred up memories of Donald Trump's landslide loss, and made many -- especially Republican donors -- very uncomfortable. As this went on, Cotton saw much of his support from the party's establishment wing bleed to the other three top candidates. After Scott Walker was arrested after a drunken brawl at a Nashua pub, and Sasse withdrew from the race for family reasons, it became clear that Rubio would gain the lion's share of this bloc.

Cotton wound up splitting the early states with Rubio -- not bad, but a stark departure from the 50-state-sweeps that some pundits had predicted for the young Senator. Then, Rubio managed to eke out wins in the key Super Tuesday states of Texas and Georgia -- and Cotton's momentum never really recovered. The energetic Florida Senator took a lead in national polling after Ohio, and never let it go.

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Republican Presidential Primaries, 2020:

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Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)
Rep. Steve King (R-IA)
Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)
Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)
Gov. Matt Bevin (R-KY)
Fmr. Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA)

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Vice Presidential Shortlists, In No Particular Order:

Democrats:
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Bexar County Judge Julian Castro (D-TX)
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT)
Sen. Jason Kander (D-MO)
Gov. Ben Jealous (D-MD)
Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT)

Republicans:
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)
Sen. John Kasich (R-OH)
Sen. Eric Greitens (R-MO)
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC)
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)
Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)

Out of curiosity, what was Klobuchar's margain in her 2018 senate race? With a GOP gubernatorial win, and losses in all but Ellison and Mccollum's districts, i'd imagine it must be quite close.

Klobuchar beats a rando State Representative 57-40.

In 2006, she overperformed the Democratic gubernatorial candidate by about 13%, and in 2012 she overperformed Obama by about the same amount. This would, hypothetically still be her closest Senate race yet.

I was writing an update to finish this off, and then I got evacuated because of the fire. When I got back to my house, I wrote another update, but my computer crashed. So, here goes.

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Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) / Governor Scott Walker (R-WI)
49.14% | 341 EVs
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) / Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT)
47.98% | 197 EVs

The fall campaign was an exceedingly brutal one, with Rubio slamming the Clinton Administration's scandals and Feingold attacking the youthful Senator over his aggressive foreign policy. Rubio maintained a substantial lead for most of the election season, but Feingold's enthusiastic campaign combined with a late-breaking corruption scandal involving Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart and several senior Rubio campaign officials to narrow the gap in the final days. Nevertheless, the progressive hero was unable to overcome the unpopularity of the Clinton Administration.

Republican gains downballot were nothing to sneeze at. Gains in Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, and New Hampshire gave conservatives a 63-35 majority in the upper chamber, and they netted eight seats in the House to go to 270-168. Additionally, they gained control of the executive mansion in Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Washington, and North Carolina (along with countless state legislatures), ensuring that gerrymandering would enshrine their majority for decades to come.

Clinton, who had avoided controversy for the second half of her term, quietly handed over the reins of power to Rubio after staying as far away from the 2020 campaign as DNC Chairman Keith Ellison could keep her. While she left office with approval ratings in the mid-thirties, she had secured her place in the history books as the first female President. Additionally, her tenure in the Oval Office had allowed programs like Obamacare to become so entrenched that they would prove impossible for Rubio to repeal. History would judge her harshly, but she had served a valuable role as the guardian of Obama's legacy.

---

Supplementals:

List of Presidents of the United States:
43. George W. Bush (2001-2009)
44. Barack Obama (2009-2017)
45. Hillary Clinton (2017-2021)
46. Marco Rubio (2021-2029)
47. Scott Walker (2029-2033)
48. Jason Kander (2033-2041)

The Rubio Administration:
Secretary of State: Nikki Haley
Secretary of the Treasury: John Allison
Secretary of Defense: James Mattis
Attorney General: Pam Bondi
Secretary of the Interior: Richard Pombo
Secretary of Agriculture: Chuck Conner
Secretary of Commerce: Chris Christie
Secretary of Labor: Victoria Lipnic
Secretary of HHS: Seema Verma
Secretary of HUD: Rob Astorino
Secretary of Transportation: Harold Ford Jr.
Secretary of Energy: Myron Ebell
Secretary of Education: Mitch Daniels
Secretary of Veterans' Affairs: Leo MacKay Jr.
Secretary of Homeland Security: Mike McCaul
Director of National Intelligence: Frances Townsend
UN Ambassador: Richard Grenell
OMB Director: Mick Mulvaney
CIA Director: Mike Pompeo
EPA Administrator: Donald Van Der Vaart

Chief of Staff: Trey Gowdy
Deputy Chief of Staff: Sharon Day
National Security Advisor: Robert Zoellick
Press Secretary: Christina Mandreucci
Communications Director: Alex Conant

A Note About #MeToo:

Because Trump is never elected President, it happens a few years later -- Franken loses reelection because of some misconduct allegations, but it doesn't really take off until the Weinstein piece is published in early 2021. The only real change beyond that is that there is less focus on Trump (obviously) and more focus on Harold Ford Jr. (because he's a Cabinet secretary).

Additional questions are welcome -- I'm stuck at home for the next few days, and it isn't like I have anything more exciting to do. :P

How does Ted Cruz who was the runner up of the nomination last time and won almost as many votes as Romney did in the 2012 republican primary not win the nomination against Rubio who won only one state and couldn't even win in his own home state of Florida?

Because tedbessell wrote the TL and he made it happen that way

This. Also, Ted Cruz did not run for President in 2020 ITL.

Clinton promised a gender equal cabinet in 2016, following Trudeau’s footsteps.

Did Clinton’s presidency hurt women in politics? Because female representation in politics plummeted in your timeline tremendously.

I am aware of this -- by my cursory count, the Secretary-level jobs in Clinton's cabinet are close enough that a generous definition of what counts as a "cabinet member" could explain it away. IRL, though, I just based her cabinet off of what was purportedly a leaked memo outlining her choices for the positions, and it kind of turned out that way.

And yes, the drop-off of female involvement in politics was intentional. ITL, women were kindasorta discouraged, because the first female President seemed to be doing such a crappy job (and, although this is a #hottake, the fact that the first female President seemed to be doing such a crappy job touched some hidden nerves among male voters in primary/general elections).

()

I bothered to make a Congressional District presidential results map for your 2016 election based on your premise of a 6% uniform swing.

Fair enough

Beautiful! Thanks!

The funny thing is that there are 21 Districts Trump won by less than 6%.

However, there is a 10 District cluster of Districts Trump won by between 6% and 7%.

So a slight increase in the number you based the tl on would have a large impact on the CD shift.

Yeah, it’s quite interesting (although I based the ITL elections on individual race margins, not Presidential results). In a way, it’s an effect of gerrymandering — the blending of Republican and Democratic areas that’s used in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania sacrifices safer Republican seats to create a bunch of medium-level Republican districts.

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/10/17/1248193/-Economic-Populist-The-Gerrymander-Wave-Election-Floodplains

Hopefully 2018 IRL will be a good enough year for us to pick those off. ;)

FTFY