Talk Elections

Link. (http://www.nbc12.com/story/36683339/gillespie-ahead-of-northam-in-hampton-university-poll)

Gillespie - 41
Northam - 33

Wow. Totally thought this would be a RickRoll. :P Seems so out of step with most of the other polls, so I have to assume it's an outlier.

This is the same pollster that had Trump beating Hillary in VA. Trash it.

Northam is almost losing to undecided!

http://www.hamptonu.edu/cpp/polls/20171024_va_governor_poll/

Trump approval
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 56%

Also Gillespie appears to be viewed more favorably.

Sure.

With the # of undecideds Northam could be up 8 as well.

even though this is a terrible poster, this is scary as undecided will break at least 60-40 for Gillespie/northam lol wout t ok

Trump +3 on October 30.

http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/Hampton-University's-CPP-Latest-Poll-Shows-VA-Voter-Shift-from-Clinton-to-Trump-Post-Email-Investigation

This poll also says that Northam only has 27 percent of whites that same share HRC got in TX.

applying it being 8.4% leaning rep and you have a 0.4 percent Northam win

Excuse me but utter bullsh**t.

People will be commenting on this one on election night.

Good lord, we get it. But this poll is either horrendously inaccurate or every other pollster is horrendously inaccurate. Since they have a history of iffy results, I'm gonna say your jumping the gun.

I like this poll.

gg it's over folks. pack up your bags. dems arent winning anything (besides illegalville california) until 2058 at least.

#27% undecided

Hampton is a pretty crappy pollster. These are their numbers two weeks before the primaries.

https://twitter.com/JZTessler/status/923288407102681088

Did they get Northams name wrong in the poll?

Highly unrealistic outcome. Looks like they just encouraged/bribed lots of Northam voters to say "undecided".

Gillespie is eating this silly poll up no doubt. Let him have his bit of fun, the little hussy.

There is no way that 26% of Virginia is undecided at this point lol

While I could see Gillespie eking out a win via doing well in NOVA and doing just well enough in SW Virginia, an 8 point win is way beyond the realm of what is reasonable for Virginia. Maybe Gillespie's ads in Nova are flipping left-leaners to undecided, but will any of those voters actually vote for Gillespie or stay home?

There are some weird questions / responses in this poll as well - does anyone know what is up with 96% of roughly a third of the respondents supporting their home town being a sanctuary city (was this only asked of people who live in sanctuary cities?)?

Similarly, it is really odd that more identify as Democrat than Republican, but when you include two-party leaners the Republicans lead by 12. Has anyone asked this question previously in Virginia, and if so is that consistent? It seems almost backwards to me - I think of Virginia as having a large number of left-leaners, though it is possible those voters mostly identify as Democrats.

Keep it out of the database as this outcome is about as likely as pigs learning to fly. If you're constructing a polling average for your own use, giving this poll half or quarter weight might have some merit, but the database can't do that.

Did we put the Trump +3 during the election?

I'd add it for posterity.

Maybe we should count it as 3/5 of a poll. Is that a good compromise for you?

The Sanctuary City Questions are really interesting:

Q13. And how would you feel about establishing a Sanctuary City in the Commonwealth of Virginia? Would you favor or oppose establishing a Sanctuary City in Virginia?
Frequency   Percent
Favor Sanctuary City in VA   267   36%
Oppose Sanctuary City in VA   420   56%
Don't know/Refused   63   8%
Total   750   100%

Q14. And finally, how would you feel about your own city or municipality becoming an established Sanctuary City? Would you favor or oppose the area in which you live becoming a Sanctuary City?
Frequency   Percent
Favor hometown Sanctuary City   256   96%
Oppose hometown Sanctuary   5   2%
Don't know/Refused   6   2%
Total   255   100%

Great poll!

I see these pollsters are preparing for the eventual legalization of Weed with an early round.

Complete Junk, it's about Northam +2-4 atm at the least.

Even so this poll is trash Gillespie is still probably up by 1-3 points like that poll from a couple weeks ago.

The final Hampton poll had Clinton up 4.

I wonder if some of the university polls are really Google Survey's they run and they just slap 'XX University Polling' and claim it as their own.

A point shift towards Clinton in the last days of the campaign? That last week is where basically the Clinton campaign collapsed. This leads me to believe, among other things and for among other reasons, that persuadable voters have been splinting at least 2 to 1 if not 3 to 1 Republican since at least 2013 because people are really that afraid of Democrats or that there is a large enough portion of the electorate that either are right-wing trolls who lie to pollsters or Republicans who know they are wrong but can never trust Democrats.

Safe R!1!1!!1!!!! CANT STOP THE GILMENTUM

^ 2016 late deciders was obviously the Shy Trump Effect at work. There was a real social stigma to voting for Trump, and especially on a live caller interview, lots of people were too scared to admit their support. You admit your support for Trump, and suddenly you have to defend the access hollywood scandal, him saying he wouldn't accept the results of the election if he didn't win, the muslim ban, the wall, the sexual assault allegations, attacking disabled reporters, the gold star family incident, etc. etc. Until late September, you had to explain why you supported the candidate that even Ted Cruz was refusing to endorse. It's pretty easy to see why people didn't want to admit their support publicly - not to friends, not to pollsters, not on the exit polls - but instead keep it in the secrecy of the ballot box, where no one could know for sure what they did except themselves.

As for elections before that, it seems like the undecided voters just decided to back the winner - they backed republicans in 2014, they backed Obama in 2012, republicans in 2010, Obama (nationally) in 2008, democrats in 2006, etc.

27% undecided?

I'm pretty sure horoscopes would predict the election better than this poll.

For the love of god, even Fox News has Northam up by between 3 and 7 points. It may not be a wipeout, but Northam is still going to win.

Because they didn't want to embarrass themselves with their previous stinker. They were the only poll to ever show Trump ahead in all of 2015-2016, and also the only poll (besides almost as bad Roanoke) to ever show a tie.

Oh, and I'll film myself drinking out of a toilet bowl if Gillespie wins by 8+ points.

Bets on Hampton releasing a poll lining up with the average next week?

They can put out a poll with a giant swing, or they can end up super off, but either way they’ll be embarrassed.

CAN'T GRILL THE GILL! GILLMENTUM! GILLESPIE/GILLMORE 2020! 2024! 2028! 2032!

They really should stop polling.

lol

Someone should start a change.org petition to have this pollster close down.

lel look at these fake polls