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Title: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: LimoLiberal on October 27, 2017, 12:52:01 PM https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2017_VA_TPC_10_27_20171.pdf
Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 27, 2017, 12:55:06 PM F.Y.I, this was Kellyane Conway's polling firm before she entered the white house. Not sure if that makes a difference.
Edit: Regardless, why are polls so over the place? Edit: Seriously, atleast 3 polling firms are going to look stupid come November 7th. Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: Tender Branson on October 27, 2017, 01:02:57 PM It's happening.gif !
... for some reason. Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: Skill and Chance on October 27, 2017, 01:03:11 PM Should be noted that it's a tie when they include Hyra, the libertarian. The libertarian candidate was the margin of victory for both Warner 2014 and McAuliffe 2013.
They also find a tie for AG but exclude the LG race entirely. Odd. Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: BudgieForce on October 27, 2017, 01:08:13 PM F.Y.I, this was Kellyane Conway's polling firm before she entered the white house. Not sure if that makes a difference. Edit: Regardless, why are polls so over the place? What you guess the electorate will look like. If you think the electorate will be a lot older and whiter than 2013/14, then this poll and Monmouth are for you. If you don't think that, and think that the electorate will match 2013, then the modest Northam leads are for you. If you think Dem enthusiasm is gonna be higher than it typically is in off-years like 2013, then the Northam +high single digits to double digit leads are for you. Thats just not logical though. Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: LimoLiberal on October 27, 2017, 01:14:31 PM F.Y.I, this was Kellyane Conway's polling firm before she entered the white house. Not sure if that makes a difference. Edit: Regardless, why are polls so over the place? What you guess the electorate will look like. If you think the electorate will be a lot older and whiter than 2013/14, then this poll and Monmouth are for you. If you don't think that, and think that the electorate will match 2013, then the modest Northam leads are for you. If you think Dem enthusiasm is gonna be higher than it typically is in off-years like 2013, then the Northam +high single digits to double digit leads are for you. Wrong. Read this twitter conversation. White vote was 76-77% in 2013 according to voterfile data. https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/920387673092755458 Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 27, 2017, 02:21:37 PM Wait, this thread hasn't reached 10 pages yet? lol
Anyway, I haven't really followed any of these races, but I really doubt that Herring is tied with Adams. Still Lean D IMO, Northam should win by 2-4, though I could definitely see Democrats outperforming the polling average this time, which seems to be an underrated possibility (especially if we include polls like this and that Hampton poll). Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: Dr. Arch on October 27, 2017, 03:14:31 PM Wait, this thread hasn't reached 10 pages yet? lol Anyway, I haven't really followed any of these races, but I really doubt that Herring is tied with Adams. Still Lean D IMO, Northam should win by 2-4, though I could definitely see Democrats outperforming the polling average this time, which seems to be an underrated possibility (especially if we include polls like this and that Hampton poll). I'll just wait for the election at this point. No use getting hung up on polls. They can either tell you whether a seat is safe or competitive to some degree. I learned my lesson in 2016. Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: The Other Castro on October 27, 2017, 04:53:41 PM So it's 44-44-3 when Hyra is included, but 45-43 without Hyra, meaning Northam lost a point because another candidate was removed? Sure.
Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: GlobeSoc on October 27, 2017, 07:50:42 PM Seriously, a polling company called the polling company? F***ing what?
Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: Dr. Arch on October 27, 2017, 07:52:36 PM Seriously, a polling company called the polling company? F***ing what? It's like Toilet Paper brand toilet paper. Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: History505 on October 27, 2017, 09:34:31 PM Northam's leading! Gillespie's leading! And back and forth. We'll see who really takes it on election night.
Title: Re: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 Post by: krazen1211 on October 27, 2017, 10:05:04 PM I like this poll.
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