Talk Elections

As the old thread has reached almost 2,000 posts, I am making this the new one for election day, as we are obviously going to go way over.

Link to old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=255866.0

I will add the links for relevant election pages / results as I find them. If anyone has them, feel free to post them here and I will add to this post.


Election results (non-VA too):

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-general-elections
---
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-jersey-general-elections
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-york-general-elections
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/utah-house-special-election
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/maine-ballot-measure-medicaid-expansion
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/ohio-ballot-measure-cap-drug-costs


Info on HoD races:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264771.0
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/underneath-it-all-elections-for-the-virginia-house-of-delegates/


And on Miles' DDHQ page you can find a slew of Virginia stuff, including HoD race breakdowns:

https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/author/milescoleman/



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Note on oversized signatures: I really think it is absurd that this is even necessary, but there are some users on this forum who can't seem to keep their signatures at a reasonable height/width, and some who even obnoxiously keep their's as big as possible to annoy people. So here's the deal - if you want to post in any election threads next week, get rid of your huge signatures. Cut it way down to around the size of mine, maybe double it, give or take. Otherwise I will delete your posts, regardless of the content. Just because you can technically enter the code for a huge signature in the sig profile field doesn't entitle you to stretch out everyone's thread page when they are trying to follow election results here and participate in discussion about it.

So keep the signatures short. No exceptions.

Ah another thread for

DOOOOOOOOOOMMM

I predict a tight win for Northam with a possible recount (kinda like what happened with Virginia Senate 2006 or Virginia Senate 2014)

Not tuesday yet but....

()

Monmouth will release their final poll tomorrow. Previous poll was G+1. Some tea leaves:

Patrick Murray‏ @PollsterPatrick
Wapo & Roanoke show tightening.  Qpac & Suffolk show widening. "Trend" driven by Rass & TPC being late game entries in the average.

Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Replying to @PollsterPatrick
So you guys have Northam rebounding? 😬 The polls showing tightening are more recent than the ones showing widening.

Patrick Murray‏ @PollsterPatrick
Replying to @NateSilver538
We're still in field, so not clear yet. But bottom line, is it's still adhering to our overall trend that race has always been tight.

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/926851496578297857

So, based on this I would guess that Monmouth will still show a close race, though maybe anything from G+2 to N+2.

What do you think is the biggest reason Northam hasn't been able to use trump's dreadful VA approval ratings to grow a bigger lead?

Who are the gillespie/clinton voters?

I don't know how many G/C voters there will be.  But there were probably plenty of Republicans who sat out the Presidential race or voted for a third party (Johnson got 3% and McMullin 1.4%) that have no problem voting for Gillespie.

Gubernatorial elections already provide candidates with a way to escape some of the wrath voters have for the party that controls the White House/Congress, and it doesn't help the opposition party if their candidate is not a good campaigner to begin with. Northam isn't really exciting and he's not the best candidate, either. I think that may be one of the more simpler reasons for his underwhelming campaign.

Ideally a wave should be able to carry these people in anyway, and that may be what happens, but I think this is more likely to happen with offices that aren't as high-profile as the Governors race. Everyone knows these two candidates, as opposed to House, legislative or various row office candidates.

The tweets from the Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray also made me think. What would we see if we looked at only the changes in margins of recent pollsters? Excluding partisan polls (assuming I hopefully did all these numbers correctly), the most recent pollsters with relatively recent previous polls to display a change were: Emerson, Roanoke, Suffolk, WashPost, Quinnipiac, CNU, and Fox. Changes were:

Emerson: Gillespie +2 (Northam +5 ---> Northam +3)
Roanoke: Gillespie +6 (Northam +6 ---> Tied)
Suffolk: Northam +4 (Tied ---> Northam +4)
WashPost: Gillespie +7 (Northam +13 ---> Northam +5)
Quinnipiac: Northam +3 (Northam +14 ---> Northam +17)
CNU: Northam +3 (Northam +4 ---> Northam +7)
Fox: Northam +3 (Northam +3 ---> Northam +7)

So, what do we see when we take out the newcomer pollsters to this race like Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and The Polling Company? An average of (G+2 / 7 polls) = G+0.29 average trend, or what we would consider in poll trends as virtually negligible. Now, is this a fair way of calculating poll trends? Not exactly, but it does help show what the changes are from poll to poll when you ignore new entrants that potentially muddy the average and cast false trends. Perhaps Gillespie has been tightening the race, or perhaps it has been mostly static.

Fhtagn is a Stein/Gillespie voter.

;D

That’s a... hmm.

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting :(

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

Democrats would get one more shot in 2019 to win back the state senate.

Not all states allow off-year redistricting (besides court mandated cases) - is VA one of those?

Some state constitutions prohibit it.

McAuliffe has already vetoed some HoD map tweaks. I don't for sure if Virginia's constitution prohibits it, but they seem to think it is ok.

It's not just redistricting. A democratic governor is pretty much the only thing standing in the way of a full bore social conservative agenda in Virginia. Just take a look at some of the stuff McAuliffe vetoed in the past 4 years. That's what you can expect from a Gillespie governorship.

Is Bagel23 unable to read the first post? I thought he was classier than that.

It looks like a tight race, but it seems like Gillepsie is struggling with rural enthusiasm, so he's going to have to overperform Trump a lot in NOVA.

Virginia, is my signature size ok?

<is very rude to trans people on atlas
<accuses others of losing class

Stupid McAuliffe vetoed the bill legalizing switchblades this year. Stupid McAuliffe.

Yes, not to mention

<literally makes an opinion of someone based on one vote

lololol

5-poll average after Emerson release:

Emerson: N+3
Siena: N+3
Trafalgar: N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie

Average: N+2.4

Personally I would prefer it if you ditched one or two of the images but I'm not trying to do some strict enforcement here. It was mainly directed at people like Sparky and Bagel, where the signature is very obviously too big. The signature space is not supposed to be a whole new profile page under every post.


Doesn't matter. Change your signature.

If all goes well for Republicans this Tuesday, and they redistrict the Virginia Senate before elections on 2019, the most optimum partisan breakdown for them in that chamber is likely a 25:15 majority. 

It can't get any larger than that given how closely divided this state is. 

I'd guess the same type of people who are Clinton/Karen Handel voters?

Plus 2 Gillespie is what I think it will show.
Also any word on a new Fox News poll?

The lastest version of this from Cinyc, made for last year's elections.

Final Wason Center (CNU) tracking poll:

Northam 51
Gillespie 45
Hyra 2

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/northam-holds-6-point-lead-over-gillespie-51-45-as-independents-and-moderates-break-for-democrat/ (http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/northam-holds-6-point-lead-over-gillespie-51-45-as-independents-and-moderates-break-for-democrat/)

The previous poll (Oct 27) was 50-43 Northam.

Eh, if the data supports Northam by 2, then the reasonable guess is Northam by 2.

Northam by 2 is still a pretty solid run considering that we should be seeing backlash for Republicans eventually given approval ratings. The economy's good, but it's hard to tie that to Gillespie and tying anything to Trump is difficult.

Put it this way: Cuccinelli lost by 2.5%. If Gillespie can keep that margin after a much less friendly national environment and an general boost in the Dem electorate, 2018 probably won't be as brutal as some people are expecting.

If Gillespie manages to improve on 2.5% or even win the election outright, all hell breaks loose. No way an election held Nov 2017 should be better or even comparable for a Republican compared to Nov 2013.

New Q poll (https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2497)

Northam 51
Gillespie 42
Hyra 3

Their previous poll was 53-36 Northam.

5-poll average after Quinnipiac release:

Quinnipiac: N+9
CNU: N+6
Emerson: N+3
Siena: N+3
Trafalgar: N+1

Average: N+4.4

It looks like Northam has turned back up just in the nick of time.

We haven't gotten a final poll from The Polling Company yet, though.

Same with Monmouth.

Don’t forget Trafalgar and Optimus!

I've also been wondering if Hampton will have a final poll.

I do think that the last couple of weeks put a scare in the Northam campaign and to get the base out to vote tomorrow.  It will be close, but I think he'll pull it out.

Politico: Some grumbling from conservatives on Gillespie shunning Trump (https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/06/virginia-governor-gillespie-trump-northam-244572)

New Fox poll (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/11/06/fox-news-poll-race-for-virginia-governor-remains-tight.amp.html)

LV:

Northam 48 (-1)
Gillespie 43 (+1)
Hyra 2

RV:

Northam 45 (nc)
Gillespie 41 (-1)
Hyra 3

More and more polls are showing Northam voters more excited to vote.

It'd be nice if democrats finally won something. Its getting a little demoralizing.

Monmouth (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_VA_110617/)

Northam 47 (nc)
Gillespie 45 (-3)
Hyra 3

-Monmouth

What exactly is the central region of Virginia like in terms of the rural/urban divide and electorate?

Huge. Almost like two different worlds. A little bit more akin to NoVA re Midlothian and suburbs of Richmond and the same for Cville but other than that, it's rural everywhere in the Piedmont region and largely GOP leading or trending.

For a visual: https://www.google.com/maps/@37.4778586,-78.3691333,162645m/data=!3m1!1e3

Almost no cities and several small towns that lean GOP. A ton of trees and farms. It's peaceful there, growing Piedmont wine and tourism, craft beer scene. Some industry but largely retail, farming, trucking, and some office jobs (Richmond and Cville and some in Lynchburg), but overall a lot of people from the Piedmont (myself included) have come to NoVA for jobs. Piedmont has massive brain drain from HS and UVA/Richmond kids leaving the area. It also features a lot of folks retiring to the farm country from New England, NY/NJ, which residents there absolutely hate but it's not as bad as it once was. When I was in HS, I overheard a convo saying that "they needed jobs, but no those Yankee jobs coming down here."

Below are the margins for the 2013 VA AG race at various % of polls reported which was decided by just 906 votes. This might give some idea of where ideally both candidates will want to be at margin wise throughout the night. Republican candidates will need to obv beat these margins and probably do so by at least a couple % points to feel secure; while Democrats can largely be content to match 2013 margins.

7% in Obenshain by 15%
9% in Obenshain by 15.8%
33% in Obenshain by 9.2%
61% in Obenshain by 6%
65% in Obenshain by 7%
90% in Obenshain by 2.1%
91% in Obenshain by 2.08%
93% in Obenshain by 2%
95% in Obenshain by 1.3%
97% in Obenshain by 1%
98% in Obenshain by 1.2%
99% in Obenshain by 0.8%

In 2013 and 2014 Rs overperformed their polls. It will be a very interesting night. Surely many Reps will jump when Gillespie pulled out an early lead only to see it cut as the night goes on. The question it, will the advantage be enough.

Updated Average:

Monmouth: N+2
Fox: N+5
Quinnipiac: N+9
CNU: N+6
Emerson: N+3

Average: N+5.0

Northam can now withstand the entire 2013 polling error. Congrats to Gov. Northam.

Just saw the change research and polling Company releases. These release dates are so close together that I've decided to just have the average reflect all polls released today:

Polling Company: N+1
Change Research: N+6
Monmouth: N+2
Fox: N+5
Quinnipiac: N+9
CNU: N+6

Average: N+4.8

Northam still in an excellent position.

So something we all need to keep in mind is that....
In 2016 for 10 days trump was gaining in polls of course the comey letter helped but the last 4 days Hillary recovered a bit going from a 65% chance of winning to 72% chance of winning on 538.

So while I’m extremely nervous about the race I’m still optimistic.

So I finally saw the Latino Victory Fund ad everyone's been freaking out about and I gotta say that not only do I fail to see anything even remotely offensive about it (the point it raises is an entirely legitimate one), I'd argue it was remarkably tame for an attack ad (and one that raised a pretty fair question; Donald Trump's certainly not done anything to suggest he has a problem with minorities being run over by white supremacists, his first impulse with Charlottsville was clearly to side with the Nazis).  It's really not even a smear, tbh.  

I'm not a fan of using the term "snowflake" to describe anyone, but if ever there was a case where the term applied, it's to people who were "offended" by that ad (all due respect to VirginiaModerate, who AFAIK is a pretty reasonable guy).  Honestly, I don't blame the Latino Victory Fund for running it and if Northam had just not commented on it, it'd probably have been treated like the nothingburger it is by most.

I get what you're saying, but this is a very different situation than the Presidential election because there's no Electoral College to complicate things.  In November, the polls did tighten in the closing days, but remember that the final national polling average was quite close to the actual popular vote margin.  Clinton just didn't get enough of that vote in the right states. 

Here, the average is showing Northam with a wider lead than Clinton's final national lead.  Although a Gillespie win is certainly still in the realm of possibility, I'd much rather be in Northam's position.

It's not a matter of offense. Offense is emotional. The ad made an appeal to shifting metrics. You have to think in the eyes of GOP operatives and voters and how they would (and did) react. It was far from a nothingburger but not the worst thing ever - the truck did stop short and the video didn't have kids being run over.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

Interesting trivia:

Around when do results start coming in tomorrow?

At what % reporting did Hillary take the lead last year?

I believe traditionally around 7:20 est, though they are relatively slow coming in for the first hour before coming in significantly faster after that.

8 or 9 for a good but not full picture, rural counties post first, Ffx and PW last to get to 100% http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Statewide.html

Clinton campaigned for Terry in 1993?

82%, though she lead in literally the first returns before Trump took a large lead.

Chesterfield County, just south of the City of Richmond, is a good county to key on early. It is one of the first counties to report and if Gillespie doesn't win it by 8-9 points, he'll be in trouble.

From Nate Silver:

()

So Gillespie has a 25% chance then.

Alright

About 10% better odds for Gillespie than Trump had in VA last year.

Before today, I felt like the race was becoming a pure tossup, but I think Northam has gotten back on track some. His lead appears to be stabilizing, but a Gillespie win isn't out of the question.

I've been thinking that there is reason to believe that the polls are underestimating Northam. As we learned from the polls last year, enthusiasm is difficult to accurately poll, and the enthusiasm right now seems to be behind Northam more than Gillespie.

I suspect a lot of that was faux outrage and that the whole controversy didn’t have much of an impact despite Northam’s incompetent handling of it.

Also, in 2014, in the Warner-Gillespie Senate race Gillespie was leading until about 92% had reported.

With 1% reporting Gillespie's lead was 61-36 I think.

I don't know if it matters, just putting it out there.

@Old Liner: May you shrink that signature some please? Adding width=400 to the [img] tag would help a lot.

This seems plausible:

From the looks of it, undecideds are going for Northam which will ultimately hand him the Governor's mansion. Gillespie's surge was really because the Republicans were coming home but now we are seeing Ralph stabilizing. In the end, I believe it will be Northam +6 or +8.

Virginia flipped blue in 2016 at 9:55 PM Eastern, for reference.

Right when NOVA counties starting coming in. If Gillespie does not have a significant lead before Fairfax comes in he likely done for.

I could be wrong about this, but it is worth keeping in mind that even in NoVA the most Republican precincts often report first. Gillespie was up big in Loudoun County in 2014 with 10% reporting or so, I believe.

I know that's the case for Prince William County. The big population bases and the Democratic strongholds are along I-95 and I-66, but the area in-between is more Republican and it reports first.

From 538, we have the average result for each county out of the 2013 governor's race, 2014 senate race, and 2016 presidential race. Gillespie should aim to be consistently beating these averages:


GOP VOTE MARGIN RELATIVE TO STATEWIDE PERFORMANCE
LOCATION  2016 PRESIDENT  2014 SENATE   2013 GOVERNOR  AVG.

Accomack County   +17.0   +12.5   +14.3   +14.6
Albemarle County   -19.5   -11.2   -16.4   -15.7
Alleghany County   +42.2   -8.2   +11.3   +15.1
Amelia County   +42.0   +30.6   +32.5   +35.1
Amherst County   +35.6   +24.9   +29.9   +30.2
Appomattox County   +51.5   +39.6   +46.5   +45.9
Arlington County   -53.9   -42.8   -46.9   -47.9
Augusta County   +54.8   +45.7   +45.2   +48.6
Bath County   +47.2   +13.5   +26.8   +29.2
Bedford County   +54.4   +43.0   +48.6   +48.7
Bland County   +72.9   +42.2   +51.8   +55.7
Botetourt County   +52.7   +35.2   +41.8   +43.3
Brunswick County   -13.4   -21.5   -21.5   -18.8
Buchanan County   +65.6   +22.4   +40.0   +42.7
Buckingham County   +16.6   +6.6   +8.5   +10.6
Campbell County   +52.1   +41.7   +49.3   +47.7
Caroline County   +10.4   -4.0   -2.8   +1.2
Carroll County   +64.7   +33.7   +39.1   +45.9
Charles City County   -19.6   -29.8   -26.2   -25.2
Charlotte County   +28.1   +17.6   +22.5   +22.8
Chesterfield County   +7.5   +9.5   +10.3   +9.1
Clarke County   +25.0   +19.6   +14.6   +19.8
Craig County   +62.6   +28.7   +43.3   +44.9
Culpeper County   +30.5   +32.3   +30.6   +31.2
Cumberland County   +18.8   +8.9   +11.7   +13.2
Dickenson County   +61.2   +15.1   +29.9   +35.4
Dinwiddie County   +17.7   +3.9   +4.2   +8.6
Essex County   +7.5   +4.9   +5.9   +6.1
Fairfax County   -30.5   -16.7   -19.7   -22.3
Fauquier County   +29.8   +31.0   +27.3   +29.4
Floyd County   +42.5   +15.3   +27.6   +28.5
Fluvanna County   +14.6   +11.8   +7.9   +11.5
Franklin County   +47.2   +26.3   +34.7   +36.1
Frederick County   +40.3   +37.4   +35.5   +37.8
Giles County   +53.6   +23.8   +30.6   +36.0
Gloucester County   +44.6   +30.5   +29.8   +35.0
Goochland County   +30.2   +26.0   +25.1   +27.1
Grayson County   +62.8   +28.3   +37.5   +42.9
Greene County   +36.8   +31.7   +27.8   +32.1
Greensville County   -13.5   -26.5   -22.3   -20.8
Halifax County   +21.8   +6.7   +17.7   +15.4
Hanover County   +37.6   +33.3   +34.8   +35.3
Henrico County   -15.5   -12.3   -10.7   -12.8
Henry County   +34.4   +14.6   +28.1   +25.7
Highland County   +47.5   +27.6   +33.3   +36.2
Isle of Wight County   +25.8   +15.4   +16.5   +19.3
James City County   +10.4   +11.5   +11.5   +11.2
King George County   +22.4   +25.7   +28.0   +25.4
King and Queen County   +32.9   +3.4   +6.2   +14.2
King William County   +40.4   +27.4   +27.4   +31.8
Lancaster County   +15.1   +14.9   +15.3   +15.1
Lee County   +68.3   +29.4   +51.0   +49.6
Loudoun County   -11.6   +1.3   -1.9   -4.1
Louisa County   +29.8   +19.3   +21.0   +23.4
Lunenburg County   +22.8   +8.5   +11.7   +14.4
Madison County   +37.0   +28.8   +23.2   +29.7
Mathews County   +42.1   +28.3   +26.8   +32.4
Mecklenburg County   +18.7   +15.1   +18.3   +17.4
Middlesex County   +31.3   +23.8   +21.8   +25.7
Montgomery County   +4.0   -5.3   +0.1   -0.4
Nelson County   +10.9   -3.3   -1.4   +2.1
New Kent County   +42.7   +33.8   +33.2   +36.6
Northampton County   -4.0   -8.6   -9.2   -7.3
Northumberland County   +24.9   +17.4   +19.0   +20.5
Nottoway County   +18.4   +4.6   +6.1   +9.7
Orange County   +31.7   +23.3   +21.8   +25.6
Page County   +54.8   +40.3   +31.3   +42.2
Patrick County   +60.3   +35.4   +45.1   +47.0
Pittsylvania County   +44.4   +26.9   +36.8   +36.1
Powhatan County   +51.7   +44.7   +45.9   +47.5
Prince Edward County   +0.0   -6.5   -5.4   -4.0
Prince George County   +22.2   +16.6   +17.9   +18.9
Prince William County   -15.8   -2.1   -5.7   -7.9
Pulaski County   +45.9   +18.8   +29.1   +31.3
Rappahannock County   +22.9   +12.2   +9.6   +14.9
Richmond County   +28.9   +17.6   +22.5   +23.0
Roanoke County   +32.9   +22.2   +29.0   +28.1
Rockbridge County   +34.7   +15.8   +20.5   +23.7
Rockingham County   +49.6   +46.5   +44.3   +46.8
Russell County   +64.0   +23.9   +35.7   +41.2
Scott County   +71.3   +45.1   +56.2   +57.6
Shenandoah County   +48.3   +40.5   +35.1   +41.3
Smyth County   +60.2   +28.4   +36.7   +41.8
Southampton County   +21.6   +5.0   +8.1   +11.6
Spotsylvania County   +22.0   +22.5   +20.0   +21.5
Stafford County   +14.4   +19.5   +17.0   +17.0
Surry County   -5.4   -21.8   -19.8   -15.7
Sussex County   -11.1   -14.9   -15.2   -13.7
Tazewell County   +71.4   +46.3   +53.1   +57.0
Warren County   +42.1   +32.0   +28.0   +34.1
Washington County   +58.6   +36.2   +44.3   +46.4
Westmoreland County   +12.5   +3.4   +2.5   +6.2
Wise County   +67.2   +42.7   +46.1   +52.0
Wythe County   +59.9   +31.2   +40.3   +43.8
York County   +22.4   +21.0   +22.2   +21.9
Alexandria City   -52.8   -41.6   -46.5   -47.0
Bristol City   +48.8   +31.0   +33.3   +37.7
Buena Vista City   +35.9   +18.8   +26.5   +27.1
Charlottesville City   -61.2   -56.9   -57.7   -58.6
Chesapeake City   +6.6   +1.3   -0.6   +2.5
Colonial Heights City   +44.5   +47.0   +45.7   +45.8
Covington City   +23.5   -21.8   -3.6   -0.6
Danville City   -14.5   -16.1   -2.7   -11.1
Emporia City   -26.1   -25.0   -22.7   -24.6
Fairfax City   -25.1   -10.5   -14.3   -16.6
Falls Church City   -52.6   -44.7   -45.7   -47.7
Franklin City   -21.7   -22.7   -20.4   -21.6
Fredericksburg City   -21.0   -19.0   -19.5   -19.8
Galax City   +44.1   +14.1   +23.8   +27.4
Hampton City   -32.3   -38.0   -36.0   -35.4
Harrisonburg City   -16.7   -6.3   -9.3   -10.8
Hopewell City   -4.0   -3.7   +1.6   -2.0
Lexington City   -25.0   -30.8   -26.2   -27.3
Lynchburg City   +14.2   +12.9   +16.2   +14.5
Manassas City   -10.8   -0.6   +0.3   -3.7
Manassas Park City   -22.8   -7.9   -9.4   -13.4
Martinsville City   -18.1   -22.6   -6.7   -15.8
Newport News City   -21.3   -22.1   -21.7   -21.7
Norfolk City   -37.3   -39.1   -40.9   -39.1
Norton City   +49.0   +22.3   +18.1   +29.8
Petersburg City   -71.4   -76.1   -75.4   -74.3
Poquoson City   +53.9   +48.5   +46.6   +49.7
Portsmouth City   -31.0   -41.5   -39.5   -37.3
Radford City   +0.6   -6.0   -1.2   -2.2
Richmond City   -58.2   -54.0   -54.1   -55.4
Roanoke City   -13.7   -21.3   -15.6   -16.9
Salem City   +30.0   +17.7   +26.1   +24.6
Staunton City   +3.5   +1.3   -0.4   +1.5
Suffolk City   -6.9   -13.0   -10.8   -10.2
Virginia Beach City   +8.9   +5.9   +4.5   +6.5
Waynesboro City   +16.6   +15.9   +16.1   +16.2
Williamsburg City   -37.8   -27.5   -29.8   -31.7
Winchester City    +1.8   +5.1   +3.7   +3.6

^^^^

I guarantee you Ed Gillespie will underperform all of those margins for the first county on that list :)

This is similar to what happens for Republicans in PA. I remember in 2010 a lot of people saw Sestak ahead in Crawford county and said that it meant that Toomey was doomed, but when the county was fully in, Toomey had won it 61%-35% or something like that. A lot of counties were like that and PA has the opposite progression with Dem areas coming first, even in Republican counties and then Republican precincts slowly start to eat away at the massive Dem lead statewide.

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

Greedo will likely either be going off on everyone or *crickets chirp* ;)

LOL listen northam might win but I think Gillespie will eke it out.

Exactly.
By the way the Emerson poll showed Gillespie down slightly but....

Jill Vogel beating fairfax and it showed John Adams beating mark herring.

Completely agreed

Will Gillespie be Ossoffized?

OMG!  I made up a sniglet!

Republicans have little to worry about if one or both of Northam and Murphy underperform Clinton.

Worth remembering tomorrow night:

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

Do we have a NYT (they normally wait until the day of, IIRC) or any other good results pages yet? 

No matter how many times we talk about the way Virginia reports the results, it's not going to stop the hand wringing lol. I look forward to all the doom prophecies when Gillespie is ahead with 1% in.

I think you meant hard-line there...

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

Kaine was projected the winner at 8:20 PM, but Kaine did far better in the rurals than Northam is likely to do, so it's not totally relevant.

Not really. Ossoff losing was bad for the Dems for the same reasons a 2 point Northam win or 10 point Murphy win would be bad for the Dems: a lack of ability to improve on Hillary's numbers in an election they lost overall, despite muh wave and the muh Hillary horrible candidate coping mechanism.

It does start to effect even a knowledgeable watcher when like 75% of the vote is in and the Republican has a spread of 3%. 

Overreaction on Atlas is probably the safest bet you could place in this (or any) election.

So McAuliffe 2013 took the lead with 76% reporting, Clinton 2016 took the lead with 83% reporting (with a 5.4% final margin!), Warner 2014 took the lead at 92% reporting, and Herring 2013 took the lead in a recount.

Anyone know when Obama 2012 (3.9% final margin) took the lead?  Probably earlier than Clinton and McAuliffe because less purely dependent on NOVA?

I think your overthinking it. Hillary was a good fit for NJ and Tim Kaine helped her margin in VA. Phil Murphy has the charisma of a card board box and the last 3 VA governors races have been competitive. Tomorrow nights performance doesn't have to mean much about whether there will or wont be a wave next year.

Harry Enten of 538 has pointed out several times that off-year gubernatorial elections aren't particularly predictive of subsequent Congressional results.  Writing recently about Virginia specifically:

I remember Newt Gingrich and even John King and Anderson Cooper in 2014 saying that Gillespie still had a chance even after Warner had taken the lead, lol. Either way, you'd think that most pundits would be aware of the counting biases of most states, but apparently not. So yeah, overreactions are basically guaranteed.

Btw: Someone can correct me if I'm wrong here, but I believe NJ also has a Republican counting bias. Don't be surprised if Guadagno is leading in the early count.

Hence why this "if Northam doesn't do well, democrats won't do well in 2018" talk is downright annoying.

Yeah there's a way to spin everything.

Dems only lost 2016 because of Hillary (even though they failed across the board, many far worse than her)
Dems only lost KS/SC because they didn't pay attention.
Dems only lost GA because they paid too much attention.
Dems only lost MT because the Republican bodyslammed a reporter too late.
(Potential) Dems only lost VA because of <insert reason here>

But ultimately, when there's an actual wave, the beneficiaries of it aren't constantly spinning. They're too busy winning.

I'm not spinning anything. Hillary overperformed polls in NJ and Tim Kaine is a popular sitting senator from VA. It's not hard to put 2 and 2 together about either state.

This true, which is why the 30 or so special elections in 2017 showing Ds increasing 10-20% over the previous results are more compelling. Northam winning by the same margin as Hillary, or narrower, wouldn't invalidate those.

True - The best predictor of 2018 in VA (as stated by many others previously) is the HoD races, and particularly their relation to the Gov margin. The HoD results will tell us how well dems could fare in districts that are slightly gerrymandered/formerly republican but now competitive. It will also tell us how willing people are to throw out incumbents. Finally, I will also show how many people are willing to split their ticket between the top and the downballot races. if Gillespie ends up willing, but Dems gain 6 or more seats in the HoD, I consider that a win. If Northam wins by a reasonable amount, but dems only gain those 6 seat - well that is a setback.

I don't think anyone says this. People credit Parnell's showing because the Dems didn't pay attention. Dems lost KS/SC because those seats are virtually impossible for Dems to win now unless it's 1894 or 1958, AND because it was too early in Trump's term for the failures to sink in with his base. That we came so close is useless if we want to win Congress through special elections in seats Trump chooses to make vacant, but pretty indicative of swings in closer seats that are all up for election next year.

I think a high profile decent turnout statewide race is far more representative than extremely tiny abysmally low turnout state house races.

Well, then you need to explain why earlier in the thread people are quoting stats of how unpredictive Virginia's governors races have been in the past.

One thing I remember very clearly from 2001 is how Mark Warner won narrowly while Republicans swept to much higher margins in the HoDs. A big part of that was redistricting, but it also showed that Republican support was as strong as ever 1 year into Bush's term.

It's a useful measure of showing enthusiasm on top of potential swings. Democrats were consistently under-performing in special elections under Obama, and now it's like a sharp reversal and then some. Also, special elections taken individually aren't useful in predicting a midterm or presidential environment but taken in large groups they are reasonably useful.

Tomorrow the HoD races taken together will probably be the most useful predictor for 2018. People don't really know that much about their lawmakers, and the media gives most of its coverage to what Congress/the president is doing. This is why studies have shown these races, and other low-profile ones are where their opinions of the president and the ruling party tend to dominate. It's somewhat different for a single high-profile race like the gubernatorial one, where there is so much attention on it that it kind of becomes a thing unto itself. But even then, they are still affected by the political environment.

It was interesting from 538's article that Northam does better in polls with fewer undecideds. Guess that 'undecideds always go GOP' Atlas so-called wisdom may be proven wrong.

I couldn't find the exact percentage in reviewing old election overage, but Obama trailed by ~16K with 80% in, and led by ~15K with 84% in, so I'd guess he took the lead with about 82% in.

Yeah, I'm growing more confident that Northam will win. He was shaky in the past week but the polls have shown he is stabilizing, better yet, they are showing that he is winning undecideds. Plus this is a Democrat state, folks.

I never bought the last argument. Vermont and Massachussetts are, surely, Democratic states. That didn't prevented Baker and Scott from winning. And vice versa - Wyoming being Republican state didn't prevented Freudentahl from winning in 2002 and 2006

Krazen too. But he gets so little pleasure living in his parents basement instead of going to work, I can't blame him.

And, I seem to remember an election 52 weeks ago today in which the Democratic candidate had had a bit of bad news which lead to the Republican candidate surging in the polls. Around the final weekend, the polls suggested that the Democratic candidate had stabilized her position with a small, but, significant and persistent lead. The Republican candidate won.

If Gillespie wins tomorrow, some folks are going to be howling at the moon a night early.

Bob, Virginia doesn't have an Electoral College....

Georgia did back in the day.

https://www.nytimes.com/news/election-2013/2013/11/05/virginia-the-governors-race-minute-by-minute/ (https://www.nytimes.com/news/election-2013/2013/11/05/virginia-the-governors-race-minute-by-minute/)

That's a graph that shows how the lead changed throughout the night in the 2013 race.

Too bad for the GOP that Virginia doesn’t elect Governors through an electoral college.

by the time around 90% is reporting, I think if Gillespie has over a 06000 vote it is unlikely northam will win even if most of Fairfax is to report.

Confident Northam will win. I am just interested in seeing how he performs in Virginia Beach. Hope he flips it.

In the 2014 Senate race, with 89%  reporting Gillespie had a 7500 vote lead.
At that same moment Fairfax had less than 75% reporting.

So it’s looking like if it’s a 2-3 point win for Northam, this could be called between 9:30-10ish. Closer than that, and this could take a while.

Edit: Though even in VA 2014, Warner took the lead around 10:40, and once the Democrat takes the lead at that point it’s pretty much over, so at least we’ll likely know if Northam wins before 11 (if he wins by more than 1%).

I voted. We should have an "I voted today" thread.

Falls Church turnout 2 hours after polls opened

Same for Arlington:

(Fixed the tags on the quote.)  Thanks for posting these. 

Nearly a quarter this early?

Fairfax too:

Vote Fairfax City @VoteFairfaxCity
As of 8 a.m. 1,365 voters have marked their ballots in today's election. With absentee, that's more than 15.2% #Election2017

https://twitter.com/votefairfaxcity/status/927885831221719040

I sense a trend...

It would be good to get some reports from outside NoVA as well.

It would, but I'm only able to post what I see! :p

When has that ever been an impediment to posting here? ;)

Whole state is going to get rain later in the afternoon so it makes sense.

Keep in mind that Fairfax City is tiny in comparison to the county.

I'm interested in what the turnout in Tidewater looks like. The race is almost certainly over if Northam does unusually well there for a Democrat.

We did that last year here, and we were dead wrong. I still Northam will easily win though.

Present mood:

()

BUT WHAT R WE SUPPOSED TO DO ALL DAY!? /s

I have real data from Arlington county. Gigantic turnout, with precincts having 200-300 more votes than the "high target" Arlington democrats set. Probably at least 10% higher than 2013 and 2014.

NYtimes results pages should show up here when they do:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/us/elections/election-calendar.html

Fairfax County is already at 35.6% of 2013 turnout.

The RCP polling average for Virginia, and Michigan was what again???

Namely, the early vote was higher.

Is he insinuating Hillary underperformed in VA because she most certainly did not.

Quite simply, "No!"

Whether a higher pace in turnout is the result of higher turnout, or, merely the cannibalization of the later afternoon vote won't be known until later.

Yeah, RCP had Hillary up by 5.3% and 538 5.5% and Clinton only won Virginia by....5.4%. So she didn't underperform in Virginia at all, if that is what they were implying.

Given Tim Kaine was on the ticket, and, Trump pulled out of Virginia while Romney did not, Hillary Clinton underperformed in Virginia badly.

This happened to some degree in DeKalb county in the GA-06 special election.  Early turnout was good, but failed to meet expectations later in the day.

The implication in your post was that she underperformed the polling average in Virginia.  She did not, as others have pointed out.

lmao, what a load of nonsense.

Against a normal Republican, she would have won by the same margin Obama did in 2012. She over performed if anything.  

I might end up looking like a fool tonight, but my final prediction is:

Northam 51.2%
Gillespie 45.5%

You can't keep on saying things that are not true as if they were true.

Massive grain of salt as this guy is a Democratic operative, but:

()

From Nate Cohn's twitter, the METER is back

Loudoun County (NOVA suburb): 10am check indicates 34,759 voters of 242,313 total reg voters. 14.34% turnout.

So, Northam is expected to beneifit from high turnout? That would be a good sign. I hope he outperforms most polls and wins by more than five points.

Would be funny if Quinnipiac is the most accurate pollster. Probably won't happen but...

They just tweeted that this does not include the early vote. If you add that it goes to 49.2% of the 203 vote by 10am this morning.

38.8% of the total 2013 turnout (not sure if this includes early vote)

Considering Northam trouble was always going to be motivating the base the high turnout suggests he's in a good position

Opps, had "Virginia" on the mind for some reason. I was thinking of Wisconsin.

In any case, those who wish to quibble about the Electoral College vs. popular vote I would only note that the pundits claimed Hillary Clinton had a lock on the Electoral College:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_us_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94

What are the reports coming from R areas?

Prince George County, VA estimates 19% turnout @ 10am - SE of City of Petersburg and greater Richmond area

City of Alexandria at 10am - 26,285 total votes (includes 6,151 absentee) = 29.04% turnout #VirginiaElection #VAGov

Turnout for Albemarle County (surrounding City of Charlottesville) 9 AM turnout check was 14.02% of registered voters. #Election2017  #VAGov

City of Petersburg turnout @ 9 am was 12% (includes absentee’s) #VirginiaElection #VAGov

Virginia on Clinton ticket, none on Obama ticket.

Trump pulled out of Virginia.

Romney did not.

Which is untrue?

I just high-fived everyone around me.

That Hillary Clinton underperformed in Virginia.

That is objectively false.

For christ's sake it's eleven.

Couple of weather reports - people should remember that voters could be heading to the polls early to escape the evening rain.

Roanoke: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USVA0659:1:US

Had showers earlier, and will probably get some later in the early evening.


Richmond: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USVA0652:1:US

Clear morning, strong rain in the evening.


Virginia Beach: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USVA0797:1:US

Clear morning, Showers showing up in the afternoon.


Fairfax: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/22030:4:US

Had a clear morning, will be raining all day.

I see sh*t your pants syndrome is still endemic here.

I think it’s wise to be skeptical of this kind of thing

I implore the voters in Fairfax to stay home instead of braving the weather, so that Gillespie can win.

I agree, but the guy seems to be connected based on some of the stuff on his twitter.

Voting for Republicans has been rescheduled for tomorrow.

Those Ben Tribbett tweets are fun to read but I can't let myself believe them.

"You can't keep on saying things that are not true as if they were true."

But, that simply isn't what I did. I said three new things which you acknowledge were all true.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

How did those RCP averages work out for you folks?

12% at 9 am is good

Heavy SW Virginia rain seems to have not materialized. Heavy band in North Carolina. SW Virginia fairly dry. Northern Virginia under heavy rain.

Seems fast moving though. Bummer.

Dead heat.

I feel like I heard the same noise about Florida this time last year from Dem operatives, so I'm going to temper any excitement for a bit.

Edit: Notice that he's followed by Obama and Kaine on Twitter. Helps me put a bit more faith in his word, but still cautious. Am I just shell-shocked from 2016? Probably.

This should sum it up. :)

According to Daily Kos he is a well known virignia political blogger

Heh

Bristol, VA at 15% at 11:15

The 10am check with City of Richmond, Virginia has 17% turnout on average #VirginiaElections #VAGovRace #Election2017 

This is accurate, but these people can get excited, too. Looking at this recent tweet—how can he know this? "One other interesting thing- NOVA R base has always been nat security heavy (Pentagon, def contractors, CIA, etc). They dont seem R today."

So, from the very little data we have, it seems like turrnout is very high in NoVa, staggering in black areas, and really staggering in rural white areas.

he explained "The reason I say that- those are usually the voters stacked at 6 am in the outer suburbs to vote first and not seen much today"

Not sure if anyone posted this but Dave Wasserman has put out benchmark table. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sqPqFtJl2gxjAUR076E2M8-jpgOOct07FKx08zuP4bM/htmlview?sle=true#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sqPqFtJl2gxjAUR076E2M8-jpgOOct07FKx08zuP4bM/htmlview?sle=true#gid=0)

Didn't follow the VA, NJ etc. races at all so far, but I'd find it extremely shocking if Gillespie wins today.

Or comes even close to winning ...

It's an off-year election with an incumbent President stuck at a 40% approval, or below.

At least in the past 30 years, in such a case, the opposition party has always won in VA and NJ ...

Fairfax City voters are turning out to vote today. 3,412 voters before 11 a.m. We are at 29% including absentee. Impressive #ElectionDay 

Seems a bit low?

Somebody posted about Bristol, a small 70% Republican southwest Virginia city. Their turnout was half of Fairfax City at 11 am.

Turnout in the US is always relative(ly) low compared with much of Europe though ...

By saying "turnout is massive today !", you are probably talking about 45-50% turnout.

In Austria it was 80% a few weeks ago, in Germany 76%.

It could mean something if surrounding SW VA areas have equally bad turnout. Just gotta wait and see.

Just in case anyone didn't know - Today Ed Gillespie will either get the best or the worst birthday gift imaginable.

Might be early but my prediction is Ed will jump out to an early lead due to rural reporting first leading to some over actions but by 10:30 thanks to NOVA Ralph will win

It also means unsteady too, but you’re right, bad choice of words.

James City County (Williamsburg area) in Virginia had 12.69% turnout @ 9 Next check noon. #Election2017  #VirginiaElections

Dirty tricks


()

isnt his birthday on august 1st though? what are you getting at

Not all of the estimates are comparable. Some include absentees, others do not. Everyone should exercise more caution before jumping to conclusions, either way.

Every election someone tries to do this.

They are scared of voters' power.

Turnout was a big factor in why T-Mac almost lost in 2013 so higher turnout is a good sign for Ralph

Haha.

Sorry I meant Ralph :P

Sigh, looks like its going to rain for the rest of the day in Nova.  I think Northam still pulls it out in the end but a margin of 3.5-4% at the most to just 2-2.5% with the rain.

I'm not sure how it is in California, but most people in the United State can handle getting alittle wet.

How big of a wuss do you have to be to not go vote because it's raining?

That's even worse than sitting out because a candidate didn't personally campaign enough in your state/locality.

YES!!! SOME NORTHAM VOTERS STAY HOME, GILLESPIE HAS A SHOT!!!

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/927943269962698752

People with jobs won’t be staying home because of rain.

Don Jr just tweeted this out:

^ Why do Gillespie's biggest surrogates have to be so stupid?

YES!!! DEMOCRACY IS SUBVERTED SO I CAN CONTROL WOMEN’S PRIVATES!!!

I'm starting a Google docs spreadsheet to better track turnout and compare them against other turnout in other counties.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kwE1_XMLOZy-WWDRS5Jzf1I-anVbT2OH7w1g4QFL_Zs/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kwE1_XMLOZy-WWDRS5Jzf1I-anVbT2OH7w1g4QFL_Zs/edit?usp=sharing)

Fix'd

Thanks!

Just relax. Should Gillespie pull off the upset, he will be a great governor for Virginia.

It's not about staying home, it's about staying in line. At minimum, that cuts into people with jobs who forgot an umbrella.

Yeah, the man who ran on Confederate statues and race-baiting will be a fantastic governor.

Nooo but Gillespie is a #sensiblemoderate.

Just ya know, one who gets "our heritage."

Is it that common for lines to be out the door in Virginia?

Shut up, you don't live here.

:clap:

Great Job VA GOP, making me even more disgusted with my party.

Can someone please explain to me why a state that voted for Hillary by 6 points has the magnifying class of America on it?

Aside from wanting to see your side win, this is (probably) not at all useful to extrapolate onto 2018 trends

LOWER TAXES(FOR THE RICH)
PUT THOSE DARN TRANNIES AND HOMOS AND IMMIGRANTS AND BLACKS AND ETC MINORITIES IN THEIR PLACE
THEOCRACY NOW!!!
NO TO MEDICAID EXPANSION



I swear the amount of low to middle income voters who think their taxes are going to get lowered when most of the benefits will go to those with higher incomes....

While Northam ran on sanctuary cities and refused to condemn a PAC ad suggesting that Gillespie supporters attempt to run over latinos with their trucks.

We've got nothing better to do I.M.O.

All of Virginia's Congressional districts are getting gerrymandered and there's nothing you can do about it because of rain lmao

Because Pundits are itching to use VA, regardless of who wins, to push their preferred narrative.

1) it's the only close national race going on rn. Would it be better by your reckoning for the national narrative to focus on NJ or AL?

2) It's right by DC and all the journalists see the ads.

Standing in outside in line to vote seems like an urban phenomenon and not one that you see in the suburbs. All the NOVA precincts I've been to have the voting booths in the gym or cafeteria of a school, with any lines being inside.

I think NJ is a bigger story than VA

It would be an actual flip of party control

Turnout in Arlington is now 37% at noon.

I live in a suburban area (in Maine, natch) and last year the line was out the door. Had to wait outside in 2014, too.

Maybe I grew up in a town with unusual civic virtue, but I definitely have experienced out-door lines outside of a suburban gym (CT here, so in light of Maineac's point maybe it's a New England thing).

It was also a poorly designed space to be fair.

If poll turnout is at 29% and absentee turnout is 8%, total turnout should be 37% right? Arlington is throwing me off a bit.

Yes

Falls Church is at 42% at noon

42% of actual turnout or of 2013 turnout?

You’re definitely first among equals when it comes to bad Gillespie surrogates.

Actual turnout, 42% of registered voters have voted.

That’s fantastic.

Can someone confirm to me: is dwarves dragon a troll or are his views all over the place?

I keep Wulfric on iggy for a reason.

HOLY SHIT

Worse: he’s a centrist

Wulfric is a man whose Endorsements Really Matter™

The second

I know when the election is occurring though. If Northam gets Warnered, I'm blaming Gillespie's loss on Don Jr.

Judging by Bosse's turnout tracker, turnout is abysmal in GOP areas and better in Democratic areas.

Keep in mind that Falls Church is tiny though. Alexandria, Arlington, and Fairfax are where the votes are. The small independent cities like Falls Church are only a few thousand votes.

lol

Depends on regional trends, I guess, like turnout in rural GOP areas w/out Trump to vote for or Obama to vote against (ditto suburban areas, though different dynamic of course)

Also Falls Church historically has some of the best turnout in Virginia.

Yes

Not enough reports coming from the rural areas to really know.

That's what it looks like but we need more data points to really know. Also some places report ED+EV whereas others just report ED turnout so it's hard to compare.

If Gillespie is doing worse than trump did in rural Virginia, but better than trump in nova, would that mean his lead will be less than trump's throughout the night but decline at a smaller rate?

There were only 41,214 voters for Governor in 2013. So Alexandria is already at 78.9% of 2013.

Turnout was 15% at 11 in Bristol (was 15.2% in Charlottesville and Fairfax at 9:00) and Isle of Wight County was at only 25% at noon.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kwE1_XMLOZy-WWDRS5Jzf1I-anVbT2OH7w1g4QFL_Zs/edit#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kwE1_XMLOZy-WWDRS5Jzf1I-anVbT2OH7w1g4QFL_Zs/edit#gid=0)

I'm keeping track of turnout reports here too, for reference.

Damn, that is encouraging.

Nice. You should consider putting the 2013/2016 turnouts somewhere for comparison. That would really push your sheet to the next level. :)

How much of that is due to simple population growth?

Yeah, but there are a lot more Republican areas in Virginia than that.

This is % turnout, not raw number of votes.

Expect all races in Virginia to get nationalized from now on as the media follows politics like a sports game.

Cuz every Washington-based journo lives in NoVa.

For those who want to compare VA 2013 with VA 2017 here are some numbers from the Virginia 2013 Exit Poll:

Gender

Male 49%
Female 51%

Vote by Age

18-24 6%
25-29 7%
30-39 13%
40-49 20%
50-64 36%
65+ 18%

Vote by Race

White 72%
Black 20%
Latino 4%
Asian 1%
Other 2 %

Vote by Ideology

Liberal 20%
Moderate 44%
Conservative 36%

Vote by Party ID

Democrats 37%
Republicans 32%
Independents 31%

Are you a College Graduate

Yes 61%
No 39%

Vote by Region

D.C. Suburbs 18%
Nothern Virginia Exurbs 15%
Central/Western Virginia 22%
Richmond Area/Eastern Va. 26%
Tidewater Area 18%

It's election day and the NJ race isn't close, so VA is the biggest thing to talk about. That and a lot of political correspondents work in DC for obvious reasons, so VA politics stand out to them.

If you're talking about the Atlas forum... well because it's a politics forum?

no one cares. get a twitter for this kinda sh*t

turnout being low is #fakenews. gillepsie voters are too busy being hard working americans to vote until later today.

()

Well that's not good.

Not sure if this includes the early vote, which was huge this year in PW. Also turnout was only 40.54% in 2013, so they actually aren't that far away from that number.

The electronic voting machines are probably only tracking election day balloting. Also, Prince William is a heavily commuter county, so a lot of the voting will be occurring after work.

Rip Gillespie

I wouldn't suggest other side focus too much on anecdotal turnout reports but that's just me I guess, both sides are hyping it up for a let down :P

Montogomery is a swing county that voted for mccaulife and clinton.

It's not really anecdotal if they're coming from the county itself, and reporting for the entire county, not just individual precincts.

I'm talking about tweets like @notlarrysabato and such, he's making grand assumptions. Plus we don't know who is actually voting and by what margins so it's not a 100% solid thing to watch in all cases.

Alright, I'm going to provide some actual, local insight into the situation especially re PW County (my county). We're at work! I plan to vote after I get off work today, go home, and drive down to the voting location. PW is largely commuter and works in Ffx, Arlington, Alexandria, or D.C. Expect turnout to pick up after 4 and 5 for obvious reasons.

Charlottesville 31.3% at 1pm. Was 40.17% in 2013, so they are already at 77.9% of total 2013 vote.

turnout may be up in fairfax county but i've saw about 5 times more gillepsie signs than northam signs there. turnout being up is actually huge for gillepsie.

same with charloettesville. the silent majority doesn't want their confederate statues (history) taken down by radical leftists.

Northern Virginia is not the same culturally as rest of the state

Also remember when Ted cruz won md and pa in the primary he had more signs than trump......

But it's ok if they're taken down by others? :)

Also just saw that the reported 18.8% does not include 13,191 that voted early.

He is being sarcastic.

BTW just saw on CNN they are starting wall to wall coverage at 6 PM Eastern

Could not tell my apologies then

i'm messing around but don't treat the results that are in so far as a northam win just yet. wait until the results start rolling in later tonight.

turnout can change inbetween now and 7 pm, and gillepsie could end up doing a lot better in traditionally D areas than a typical republican.

100% agreed we know nothing til we actually have counts

Agreed, we haven't seen enough information from GOP areas yet. All we know is NoVa turnout looks high.

I was gonna challenge your statue crap but yes, I agree, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It’s early.

I don't recall the media doing wall to wall coverage on off year elections during the Obama years.

Scott Brown's win was only mentioned on the scroller on most news sites.

These people are desperate to push a narrative that a dem win in VA tonight spells doom for trump.

Cnn had wall to wall coverage of Scott Brown race when it happened

I remember a ton of coverage about Scott Brown's "shocking" win. It was 7 years ago though.

They had Wall to Wall coverage in 2013 too lol

Same can be said about Northam he will do a lot better than typical Democrats in Hampton Roads.

It is actually the opposite.

They want D's to lose so beltway pundits and bad faith lefties can keep pushing the "Democrats are in disarray" narrative.

If Northam wins, I doubt you will hear anyone trying to say this means Trump is doom, after all he didn't win VA in the first place.

People one the ground are making it sound like Ralph is heading to a typical 3-5% win from NOVA

Christie and McDonnell's wins in 2009 were covered extensively and were huge news.

Oh they certainly did wall to wall in the past. Here is a clip of 2013 when CNN called VA for McAuliffe - note the constant use of John King and his maps/polls, the political panel, and the massive results screen. The only difference it seems, between this and regular midterms, is that there are commercial breaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ize456kpqAo&t=89s

The real narrative is "Elections are semi-exciting, VA is close to the beltway, and we in the media are bored right now, so lets get some action"

Wow. Northam win.

Normally, I would agree with this take. But there has been a ton of concern-trolling of Democrats by beltway pundits.

They always do wall to wall coverage for this sort of thing

I don't see how anyone in the media would be bored right now. It's been nothing but bombshells recently, between millions of documents of secret banking stuff and how Trump's cabinet is tied into it, or Mueller's indictments, mass shootings and so on.

Sorry correction on CNN, wall to wall coverage starts at 7 PM Eastern / 6 PM Central

none of that is as exciting as elections as a horserace style narratives. All media members claim they want to be woodward and bernstein, they really want to be political Howard Cosells

A story going around social media is Northam is being helped by downballot races

Wouldn't be surprised.

I believe it. Trump and the GOP have been losing special elections when it comes to state legislature seats. Northam is going to win this.

Yeah.

VA Dems had a great year in terms of recruitment.

What is the pundit prediction for the 13th HoD district?

Has to be, because he certainly wasn't helping himself much.

Trump won it 59%-34%.

Danica Roem outraised the incumbent $800k to $350k, so she has a fairly good shot. Clinton beat Trump by 14 points in the district, so it gives Roem some room to breathe too.

Wonderful. The author of Virginia's bathroom bill being defeated by the first trans person in a state legislature is the kind of poetic justice I can get behind.

Northam has ran the typical VA Democratic campaign. I don't get why people think what he is doing is any different then how any Democrat have done since 2008.

DDHQ has it listed as lean D. Danica Roem has raised a lot of money and gotten help from lots of lgbt groups, but Marshall had a worryingly large cash advantage at the end of October because Roem's campaign basically burned through all of it's cash. The sheer contrast between the two candidates (ie: trans candidate vs trans-hating socon) makes me a little wary of predictions based on regular metrics... but I'm definitely hopeful.

Nice and low, at least so far. Hopefully it stays that way.

okies main post updated with NYT results pages, HoD elections analysis and of course Miles' page which is a plethora of information on Virginia

inb4 "only republicans have jerbs"

Go to hell

Check out the HoD page, I will try to be on top of the HoD race later today.

Pundit-wise, DDHQ says Lean D,  heatcharger says pure tossup, Kos says D Leaning Tossup, and cook/Sabato (old) say Tossup with a Dem advantage.

Uh, only 48% of it voted in 2013 thats not low in comparison....

Excellent!

Including absentee and early votes, Fairfax County is at 36.7% turnout at 2 pm.

With 5 hours left to vote, Fairfax was already at 81.9% of the 2013 vote.

np. It's on the tab bar of any of those NYT links, but I'll add them all to the main post I suppose.

Stop hyping low turnout

30% turnout in Henrico county so far.

https://mobile.twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/927980573750124544

Supposedly Tazewell county (82% Trump county) is having low turnout according to the county, cant find the numbers though

PittsburghSteel is a total democratic foot soldier who would love to see dead people if it meant dem victory
He was dancing in the streets when PR was hit by hurricane

People shouldnt root  for low turnout, its a disgrace to america and our democratic values

http://www.wvva.com/clip/13885960/2017/11/07/virginia-election-officials-say-turnout-less-than-expected?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_phess_WVVA

Apparently numbers are in the video for a Trump county if anyone wants to see it, cant watch it atm

I suggest everyone check out the NYT page for VA Gov - they have an awesome statewide precinct map, something that will really help in telling where in the county precincts are reporting when counties are still tabulating results.

its not cool to celebrate low turnout, but yeah Pittsburgh steel can be hackish at times

Bit beyond hackish imo

@fluffypanther19: Can you cut your signature height by about 60% please? There are new rules for sig heights going into effect (read here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=274731.msg5897024#msg5897024)) but as well as for the election threads and yours is too big for sure (you could solve it easily by removing the first image)

@PittsburghSteel: Can you check your PMs?

This guy *supposedly* posted these same polls last year and got Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania right https://mobile.twitter.com/mrbeercrusher/status/927951887369981959

Lol

I guess we'll wait and see.
Hopefully we won't see that.

Worth bearing in mind Tazewell is shrinking (as are most SWVA counties)

I call BS on lower then expected turnout in NOVA. Everything points to the exact opposite so far.

Here’s the tweet showing trump up https://mobile.twitter.com/mrbeercrusher/status/796079698501599232

Now I don’t think this guy is real since he says Phil Murphy is only up 4.
Still he could be right.

From what I am hearing from those on the ground, the weather is hitting Trump-heavy areas and turnout hasn't been great there. Turnout has been high in NOVA and the cities.

It’s been dry all day in the Hampton Roads. Haven’t heard any turnout reports from there.

I don't know about y'all but I just don't trust someone named "Mr. Beer Crusher" for polling

lol

Republicans trust anybody when it comes to polling that is favorable to them.

Probably not. He cited an "exit poll" that was supposedly released 6 hours before the polls closed and didn't cite anything. And the map he gave us is the map showing Clinton winning the state by 5.2 points. He's going off of # of counties like the typical Trump propagandist does.

Supposedly it fell 5% or so since the last governor election

Okay he seems to be junk.

Y'all I've been hearing nothing but good news for Northam. High turnout in cities and NOVA with decent weather. Depressing turnout in SWVA with crappy weather. I feel like he's going to pull off a 6 point win tonight.

Virginia is my sig ok now? I was gonna change it after the election anyway.

The weather in NOVA is not exactly decent right now lol, but it’s not bad enough to affect turnout significantly.

People who don't vote because of rain probably weren't going to vote if there were long lines - or at all.

Meh, I think he wins by 3-4 points.

This is good for Democrats.

Anyone who doesn't vote because of rain probably shouldn't be voting to begin with.

Yeah sorry about my post, you're right. It's not great but it doesn't seem to be depressing turnout. I meant to say it seems to be worse in Trump-Gillespie areas and seems to actually be hurting turnout there. This is just what I have been hearing. So far it seems like it will be a good night for Virginia democrats.

Meaning turnout has already exceeded 2013, with many hours to go.

Oh lord. Gillespie has been using Trump tactics but has been trying to distance himself from him. Donald is probably using that "Disrespecting Vets" bullcrap against Northam... even though Ralph is a vet.
I imagine this must make Ed's stomach churn.

Awesome news for Ralph!

-no Hyra
-no margin of error
-SHOCKPOLL.jpg

wow thats legit

oh ok. I been wanting to change it anyway

https://mobile.twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/927990009394851841

York county turnout so far at 39%

Yep. Northam is going to win this. Turnout in democratic areas is going to be much higher than it was in 2013.

You sure? I am sure they are targeted to Trump voters who may not have voted for Gillespie otherwise.....

Seems like in most cases turnout is higher statewide so not sure about that either :P

I wish these turnout reports would specify if they include absentees or not.

Honestly, things seem pretty similar to 2013. I don't think I'd call it a Democratic victory yet, at least not till we see turnout reports after working hours.

Voted in Virginia Beach around 1PM around 800 out of 5,000 in my precinct had voted so far, no lines was in and out.

I'm guessing that's more good news for Northam... seeing as Trump won the county.

The Republicans just aren't energized today...

Which part of Virginia Beach? North/Center/South

I think your reading too much into these turnout reports. If 2016 taught us anything, its that turnout reports come back to bite you in the ass.

It's basically a 50/50 county with a slight R edge, Northam is from the area so he should do well here.

My precinct went to Clinton by 38 votes it will be one to watch.

Not really... I lost confidence in Clinton's chances of winning Pennsylvania when I saw turnout reports coming from various towns across Western PA. Turns out (lol) my suspicions were right.

Any turnout reports from Alexandria and/or Loudon county?

"As of noon, Alexandria has 35.9% turnout (including absentees). Maury is leading the way at 42%. Patrick Henry is at 19%." https://twitter.com/justindotnet/status/927952018882351104

Also rainy and miserable. Think the movie The Mist.

Powhatan county at 48% turnout

Source on that?

This is Arlington County, means they tied 2013 at 3pm.

Good or bad for Gillespie?
I knows it’s ultra republican but is that high turnout?

According to a reply to that tweet, the turnout at the same time in 2013 was much lower.

I remember seeing early reporting thinking Trump would win VA. NOVA reported later and Clinton won.