Talk Elections

Hi,
The 2018 US Senate predictions are now available here (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php)
Enjoy,
Dave

Hi,

Will the 2018 Gubernatorial predictions be available soon as well?

Thanks,
heatcharger

Also can I get permission to add polls to the database?

Here's where we are right now in my predictions. Obviously a lot can change in a year. Republicans currently projected to have a net gain of 1 seat.

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Currently I think that Democrats lose in MO and IN but get pickups in NV and AZ. It's very plausible that Donnelly could survive, so either no net change or D+1 for 2018.

I also think that AL-SEN race is Tilt D at this point (still a tossup, but if I had give it a tilt either way, I would say D). So counting 2017, after the 2018 elections I could see D+2 as a best-case realistic scenario for the Democrats.

Mine:
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Also, add Alabama as a 40% Lean D pickup.

All the competitive races

Arizona

Dem: 48% (winner)
Rep: 48%

Florida

Nelson: 52%
Scott: 47%

Indiana

Rep: 53%
Donnelly: 45%

Missouri

Rep: 51%
McCaskill: 45%

Montana

Tester: 53%
Rep: 42%

Nevada

Dem: 49%
Heller: 46%

North Dakota

Heitkamp: 54%
Rep: 42%

Ohio

Brown: 49%
Rep: 48%

Pennsylvania

Casey: 52%
Rep: 45%

Texas

Cruz: 53%
Dem: 44%

Virginia

Kaine: 54%
Rep: 44%

Wisconsin

Baldwin: 52%
Rep: 46%

In summary: R's pick up Indiana and Missouri while D's pick up Arizona and Nevada, ends up being a wash 52/48 R Senate. I expect a good year for Democrats in 2018, and with the way the Senate is most of what they'll have to do is minimize their losses.

Republican pickups: WV, IN, MO, ND, MT, FL, OH, WI

Stop

Why did 270towin add some non-incumbent candidates to the candidate summaries on their interactive map?

List:

R-MO: Josh Hawley
D-TN: Phil Bredesen
D-TX: Beto O Rourke
D-UT: Jenny Wilson
D-NV: Jacky Rosen

These candidates are listed as the nominees in the interactive map:

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/ (https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/)

Obviously an error.

Probably not, since all of these candidates they just listed are probably more likely to be nominated than any single other candidate (and I would rate all except Josh Hawley as more likely than all other candidates combined).

Ah, still seems a bit premature though since the primaries haven't happened yet.

Is Beto a strong candidate? I know Cruz is unpopular but it isn't like he's Roy Moore, Beto doesn't seem like that charismatic a guy unlike, say Julian Castro.

Texas is less Republican than Alabama though Trump only won there by 9% and it's trending D.

Extremists in moderate states lose in wave elections that do not go their party's way. Texas i s going moderate.

Dems may win the majority of the Senate with 50-52 seats and TN is virtually a tossup.

GOP picks up Indiana, North Dakota, and Missouri. Dems pick up Nevada,  and maybe Tennessee.

Texas isn't going moderate, it'll still be a battle of the left wing of the Democratic party vs. the right wing of the Republican party, with little ground in between.

Anyway, I'm predicting Dems will pick up at least Arizona, Tennessee, and Nevada. Putting Texas at Lean R for now and we'll have to see about MS-special.

The GOP may pick up one seat, but it won't be enough to hold their majority.

GOP: IN, WV
Democrats: TN, AZ, NV

Result: 50-50

Why is Tennessee a tossup for many people right now (don't really understand the circumstances there)?

For races which I'm not rating as "Safe":

Arizona
Sinema - 50%
McSally - 46%

Florida
Nelson - 52%
Scott - 47%

Indiana
Braun - 49%
Donnelly - 47%

Mississippi Special (run-off)
Hyde-Smith - 54%
Epsy - 46%

Missouri
McCaskill - 48%
Hawley - 47%

Montana
Tester - 50%
Rosendale - 46%

Nevada
Rosen - 51%
Heller - 45%
UTDH - 95%
None of these - 4.7%
Rosen - 0.3%

North Dakota
Heitkamp - 50%
Cramer - 48%

Ohio
Brown - 52%
Renacci - 44%

Pennsylvania
Casey - 55%
Barletta - 42%

Tennessee
Blackburn - 49%
Breseden - 46%

Texas
Cruz - 52%
O'Rourke - 44%

West Virginia
Manchin - 50%
Morrisey - 45%

Wisconsin
Baldwin - 53%
Nicholson - 44%

Bredesen, the D candidate, is a relatively popular former governor. And Blackburn, the R candidate, is crazy and somewhat gaffe-prone.

R Gain: IN 50-49

D Gain: NV 52-47
AZ 52-48
TN 49.8-49.6
TX 49.765-49.758

Being a bit too generous to Reps Dems here.

Predictions are super broken right now.

Predictions are now being seen through a partisan lense rather than by polling, I have Dems losing ND and IN but gaing TX, TN, AZ, and NV😀

Seems like Dave Liep closed predictions to start attempting to fix the glitches going on right now.

Hi,
Predictions have been updated to include the senate special elections.
Please let me know if you find any issues.
Thanks,
Dave

I don't remember exactly what my username and password were for the Predictions page, but as far as Senate predictions are concerned, my current assessment would be something like this:

Confident Democrat:

Maine-Angus King (I)
Vermont-Bernie Sanders (I)
Massachusetts-Elizabeth Warren (D)
Connecticut-Chris Murphy (D)
Rhode Island-Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
New York-Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
New Jersey-Bob Menendez (D)
Maryland-Ben Cardin (D)
Delaware-Tom Carper (D)
Virginia-Tim Kaine (D)
Michigan-Debbie Stabenow (D)
Minnesota-Amy Klobuchar (D)
Minnesota Special Election-Tina Smith (D)
Washington-Maria Cantwell (D)
California-Dianne Feinstein (D)
New Mexico-Martin Heinrich (D)
Hawaii-Mazie Hirono (D)

Confident Republican:

Utah-Mitt Romney (R)
Wyoming-John Barrasso (R)
Nebraska-Deb Fischer (R)
Texas-Ted Cruz (R)
Mississippi-Roger Wicker (R)
Mississippi Special Election-Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Lean Democrat:

Wisconsin-Tammy Baldwin (D)
Nevada-Jacky Rosen (D)

Lean Republican:

Tennessee-Marsha Blackburn (R)
Missouri-Todd Hawley (R)
Indiana-Mike Braun (R)
North Dakota-Kevin Cramer (R)

Slight Lean Democrat:

Montana-Jon Tester
West Virginia-Joe Manchin
Ohio-Sherrod Brown (D)
Arizona-Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Slight Lean Republican:

Florida-Rick Scott (R)


That would be 53 Republican Senators and 45 Democratic Senators (47 including Senators Sanders and King) following the election.

Safe Democratic
OH-Sherrod Brown
FL-Bill Nelson
MI-Debbie Stebenow
WI-Tammy Baldwin
WVA-Joe Manchin
MN Amy Khlobuchar
MN Special Tina Smith
PA Bob Casey Jr

Leans Democratic
AZ-Flake K.Sinema
NV-Heller J. Rosen

Slight Leaning Democratic

MO-Claire McCaskill
ND-Heitikamp
IN-Joe Donnelly
TN-Corker D pickup P Bredesen
TX-Cruz  D pickup upset Beto

Slight lean GOP
MT Tester-R pickup Rosendale
NJ Menendez pickup upset

Safe GOP
UT-Hatch Romney
NEB-Fisher
WY-Barasso
MS special Hyde-Smith
MS Wicker

51-49 DEM Control

R gain: ND, MO
D gain: AZ, NV, TN
50-50

Here's my first #take:

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I mostly based myself on fundamentals and was as conservative as possible in my ratings (hence the inclusion of very long shots like WI, NJ and in the "lean" category).

Predicting margins for competitive races one month out.

AZ: 49-47 Sinema
FL: 51-48 Nelson
IN: 49-47 Donnelly
MN-S: 52-45 Smith
MO: 49-48 Hawley
MT: 49-46 Tester
NV: 48-45 Rosen
NJ: 53-46 Menendez
ND: 52-48 Cramer
OH: 54-44 Brown
TN: 52-46 Blackburn
TX: 52-47 Cruz
WV: 51-44 Manchin
WI: 54-45 Baldwin

MS-S: 40-34-24 Epsy - Hyde-Smith - McDaniel --> 57-43 Hyde-Smith

Right now i agree 100%, and would predict very similar numbers myself. It will be interesting to see genuine results month ahead, and compare.

there's still time enough for Dems to recapture the Senate and it goes through TN and TX

Post-Kavanaugh update:

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NC or R+1. Most likely variant for now is (IMHO, as always) a draw with Democrats winning Arizona and Nevada, and Republicans - North Dakota and Missouri. But it can easily go R+1. Or, if Democrats will be really lucky, they can go +1 by either winning Tennessee or - not losing Missouri.

No way in hell Dems keep ND and MO. AZ leans Rep as Sinema has come out as berating her own state.

Here's my 2nd to last set of predictions (with percentages). Candidates that round to 3% or more are included.

Arizona
Sinema (D)^ - 49
McSally (R) - 47
Green (G) - 3

California
Feinstein (D) - 57
De Leon (D) - 43

Connecticut
Murphy (D) - 62
Corey (R) - 36

Delaware
Carper (D) - 60
Arlett (R) - 38

Florida
Nelson (D) - 51
Scott (R) - 49

Hawaii
Hirono (D) - 69
Curtis (R) - 29

Indiana
Donnelly (D) - 49
Braun (R) - 48
Brenton (L) - 4

Maine
King (I) - 53
Brakey (R) - 39
Ringelstein (D) - 8

Maryland
Cardin (D) - 72
Campbell (R) - 21
Simon (I) - 7

Massachusetts
Warren (D) - 57
Diehl (R) - 38
Ayyadurai (I) - 5

Michigan
Stabenow (D) - 56
James (R) - 41

Minnesota
Klobuchar (D) - 58
Newberger (R) - 38

Minnesota-S
Smith (D) - 52
Housely (R) - 46

Mississippi
Wicker (R) - 59
Baria (D) - 39

Mississippi-S
Espy (D) - 40
Hyde-Smith (R) - 37
McDaniel (R) - 20
Bartee (D) - 3

Missouri
McCaskill (D) - 49
Hawley (R) - 46
O'Dear (I) - 3

Montana
Tester (D) - 49
Rosendale (R) - 48
Breckenridge (L) - 3

Nebraska
Fischer (R) - 64
Raybould (D) - 34

Nevada
Heller (R) - 45
Rosen (D) - 43
Hagan (L) - 4
None of these Candidates - 4

New Jersey
Menendez (D) - 55
Hugin (R) - 42

New Mexico
Heinrich (D) - 49
Rich (R) - 31
Johnson (L) - 20

New York
Gillibrand (D) - 63
Farley (R) - 37

North Dakota
Cramer (R)^ - 53
Heitkamp (D) - 47

Ohio
Brown (D) - 54
Renacci (R) - 46

Pennsylvania
Wolf (D) - 60
Wagner (R) - 39

Rhode Island
Whitehouse (D) - 59
Flanders (R) - 40

Tennessee
Blackburn (R) - 51
Bredesen (D) - 48

Texas
Cruz (R) - 50
O'Rourke (D) - 48

Utah
Romney (R) - 62
Wilson (D) - 30
Bowden (L) - 3

Vermont
Sanders (I) - 78
Zupan (R) - 19

Virginia
Kaine (D) - 59
Stewart (R) - 38
Waters (L) - 4

Washington
Cantwell (D) - 60
Hutchinson (R) - 40

West Virginia
Manchin (D) - 48
Morrissey (R) - 46
Hollen (L) - 5

Wisconsin
Baldwin (D) - 56
Vukmir (R) - 44

Wyoming
Barrasso (R) - 57
Trauner (D) - 42

North Dakota and Arizona flip, Senate stays 51-49

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My second iteration of margin predictions. Last one will be done a few days before election day.

AZ: 48-47 Sinema
FL: 51-48 Nelson
IN: 48-47 Donnelly
MN-S: 53-44 Smith
MO: 49-47 Hawley
MT: 50-46 Tester
NV: 47-46 Rosen
NJ: 54-45 Menendez
ND: 54-46 Cramer
TN: 54-44 Blackburn
TX: 53-45 Cruz
WV: 52-43 Manchin
WI: 54-45 Baldwin

3 pick-ups quite lean for R : ND, MO, FL

3 eventual pick-ups : MT, WV, IN

So yeah, 53R/47D is my current (final?) prediction.

For now (I'll probably make one update):

AZ: 49-48 Sinema
FL: 49-47 Nelson
IN: 48-47 Donnelly
MO: 48-47 Hawley
MT: 49-46 Tester
NV: 51-45 Rosen
ND: 54-46 Cramer
WV: 51-44 Manchin

(I don't see any other races as potential flips)

TN can

Solid D: WA, HI, CA, MN, NM, NY, VA, RI, CT, VI, ME, MA, DE
Likely D: OH, PA, WI, MI, MN-2
Lean D: NJ, MT, WV
Toss-up: AZ, MO, NV, IN, FL, ND
Lean R: TN, TX
Likely R: MS-2
Solid R: UT, WY, NE, MS

I think currently that Dems will win AZ, NV while Republicans win MO, IN, FL and ND.

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It was a tough call with Missouri but I think that's the most likely 51st Republican seat and a 50-50 result seems implausible to me. Could go either way but gut feeling is Claire McCaskill's luck will run out on Election Day. Final result is 51-49 for no net change.

Final Prediction Time!

AZ: 49-47 Sinema
FL: 51-48 Nelson
MO: 49-47 Hawley
IN: 47-47 Braun
MT: 50-46 Tester
NV: 50-45 Rosen
ND: 54-46 Cramer
TN: 53-45 Blackburn
TX: 52-46 Cruz
WV: 53-44 Manchin (this I think has biggest upset potential)

Other less competitive races...

MI: 54-44 Stabenow
MN-S: 52-45 Smith
NJ: 53-43 Menendez
NM: 53-34-12 Henrich (Johnson in last)
OH: 54-46 Brown
PA: 55-44 Casey
VA: 57-41 Kaine
WI: 55-45 Baldwin

All others are beyond safe.

In Mississippi special, I expect Espy to finish narrowly in front of Hyde-Smith 40-38-20, while Hyde-Smith wins by 10-15 (57-43 is my prediction) in the runoff. I expect it to be very similar to Louisiana '14.

In my bold prediction this cycle, establishment Democrats get the biggest scare in California where Feinstein wins only 52-48 against de Leon.

Well, here's my final prediction https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

Basically, I think democrats pick up NV and AZ, but republicans flip ND. I'm predicting that Donnelly and McCaskill will hold on by the skin of their teeth, but I could easily see both going the other way. I'm especially unsure about Missouri, but it seems like Air Claire may have some last minute momentum there.

Predicted Margins for competitive races-

FL: 52-48 Nelson
MO: 49-48 McCaskill
IN: 48-46 Donnelly
NJ (lol): 53-43 Menendez
MT: 50-46 Tester
TN: 52-46 Blackburn
TX: 51-46 Cruz
WV: 51-45 Manchin
AZ: 49-47 Sinema
NV: 49-45 Rosen
ND: 54-46 Cramer

With Tossup, Tilt, Lean, Likely, and Safe: (https://twitter.com/JGibsonDem/status/1059710428790566914)
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50 GOP, 48 Dems, 2 Tossup | [D+1]


Projections of who'll win: (https://twitter.com/JGibsonDem/status/1059710430489296896)
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50 Democrats, 50 GOP [D+1]. GOP retains control via Pence.

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This was my prediction exactly.  It seems we were both off in FL assuming both FL and AZ holds for GOP.

Yeah. Florida was hard to see coming. I thought that there'd be enough of a turnout shift to unseat the slight Republican advantage in 2016. Seems not.

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If i'm not mistaken, this was my map. So i got them all right? (if Florida and Arizona results stay the same).

FL, provisionals are still being counted.

I, too, only got Arizona and Florida wrong. I knew my Arizona bet was a long one but regret not calling Florida right.

Not too bad. I feel so stupid for changing FL from Scott to Nelson at the last minute because of that Quinnipiac trash poll showing Nelson +7.

Grading my predictions in terms of bias.

AZ: D+1 (so far)
FL: D+3
MO: D+4
IN: D+6
MT: D+1
NV: Boo-yah
ND: D+3
TN: D+3
TX: R+3
WV: D+6 (I did sense something, but I didn't predict a close race, damn)

MI: D+4
MN: R+4
NJ: R+1
NM: R+4 (underestimated Johnson by 3)
OH: D+2
PA: R+2
VA: Boo-yah
WI: R+1

MS-S: Not bad so far... (Overestimated McDaniel and underestimated Hyde-Smith by about 3 points)

CA: Looks like I'll be about 6 points off on my bold prediction, but still it should've been clear that Feinstein isn't very popular.

My overall average is slightly overestimating Democrats by 2-3 points. Better than my 2016 predictions for sure but still not factoring in the fundamentals of each race enough and still relying too much on polls, even though I tried to factor that in minimally this year. Still pretty decent all things considered.

I have only just found the login details for the prediction page (which I thought I had lost) and therefore missed the boat, but my general view was the same as the forum. One Dem pickup in Maine from Independent, so at least I know that I was as wrong as everyone else

Okay you guys, I dug through all the predictions. Several people got the seat change (R +2) correct, and most of those people got Arizona and Florida wrong but every other state right. 11 people made up the maps with the exact winners, the earliest of these 11 maps was apparently made on May 17th. Out of 11 of them, none were Democrats. None of these people got the predictions right in every state, with only two predicting that nobody would get 50% in West Virginia, and both of those people predicted that no one would get 50% in Florida (come on guys, there were two people on the ballot). I didn't use any other litmus test besides those two states for the percentages, so I don't know who was the most accurate overall. Here are all the perfect predictions, listed from oldest to newest

May 17th (Weather243): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=701
July 1st (wxtransit): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=915
July 11th (TheLostDutchman): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=975
July 16th (terp40hitch): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1011
August 6th (RichardBennett): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1150
August 9th (Yellowhammer): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1165
September 5th (anna0kear): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1346
October 1st (HangingChad): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1616
October 26th (Lakigigar): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2053
November 2nd (cmbeattie): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2190
November 5th (ASV): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2370

When is Atlas putting up the user prediction scores?

I didn't know there were only two people on the ballot in Florida, and i thought it was going to be a very / extremely close election, so i thought that it was going to be obvious that no-one would hit 50%... I thought it was normal that every senatorial election would have had third parties in them.

I made more mistakes though in voting percentages so i certainly didn't win. I wish i had paid more attention to exact percentages... . But apparently many made the same mistakes, but having Maryland wrong will hurt me... I hope i'll make up for it by having Braun over 50%.

Florida was going to have a Libertarian in both races, but they both dropped out to speak out against the Florida Libertarian Party (as someone who’s had to work with them before, I don’t blame them). One of those two later revealed that he had developed heart problems based on the stress of campaigning. And the really sad part is the Senate candidate was a janitor who was campaigning to “clean up DC”, so he might’ve done well just off of humor

Scores have been posted for the 2018 General Election. 
Lakigigar (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=17118) with highest score (35 state wins and 25 percentages)

Enjoy,
Dave

I got 2nd place!?

they no they got no chance of winning right? they oculd have just kept them on the ballet.