Talk Elections

Link (https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/11/15/arizona-poll-shows-potential-trouble-for-trump-gop.amp.html).

Sinema 46%
Ward 43%

Sinema 46%
McSally 45%

GOP Primary:
Ward 42%
McSally 34%

Yeah, let's stop pretending Ward would make this race safe D. Toss up/tilt D at best.

Interesting that McSally does only 2% better in a general as of now. Have to believe with campaigning she would be better on the net (though perhaps only a coin flip against Sinema), but hard to say.

Yep Arizona is going D.

Not shocking McSally has low name rec compared to ward, particularly because she's unheard of in the phoenix metro area. (Similar to how Kirkpatrick was only well known in rural Arizona).

Also don't start thinking McSally would do any better than ward already, She has literally never been attacked before. AZ is a very anti establishment state. I see her being portrayed as "Mcconnell's McSally" in both the primary and general, whereas Cinema and Ward are both anti establishment.

Interesting poll to say the least.

Oh, stop it. Ward would lose easily because she's far too extreme. She believes in chemtrails of all things.

No,they do. Which is whats interesting. Despite all the attacks against her, she remains within 3 points of Sinema, whereas McSally who hasn't been attacked yet is still behind Sinema

Its super funny on atlas but in Arizona, Ward has has a pretty large fan base and is being taken more seriously this time around.

Since when do extreme candidates (especially Republicans) have no chance of winning?

McSally is going to lose like a dog.

Very good.

sinema will likely pull a reverse Kirkpatrick, pandering to rural areas while simultaneously hoping for dear life she holds on in maricopa.

As if she would do this well in an election. She hasn't been attacked yet.

None of these numbers are that surprising - but it lets us know Dems have a real shot at a Senate majority.

She also hasn't begun to attack her opponents' many, many, many failings. Sinema is one of the best political operators in Arizona, and I would strongly advise Republicans not to underestimate her. I say that as one of her constituents, so you can take it to the bank.

If you're referring to how Kirky did well in Rural areas (particularly Navajo county where she went way ahead of Clinton) and failed hard in Maricopa, I agree. Kirky also ran a campaign that didn't focus on issues, it was very much a "vote for me I'm not mccain" campaign. Something that is very unlikely Sinema would do.

Needless to say Sinema has waaaaay higher chances than Kirk. She already has roughly 3x the amount of cash Kirk had at this time. I believe it was Q3 or 4 2015 when Kelli ward almost out raised kirky. She was bad in many ways, If McSally ran for re election to the house I would expect Kirky to loose that election as well.

Sinema has high name rec in Maricopa, Kirky and Mcsally don't.

And to say Sinema hasn't been attacked is not accurate. Look at her '12 and '14 opponents. Particularly when Wendy Rogers ran a rather nasty ad against her comparing her to ISIS if I recall. Sinema is very well respected among all factions including republicans (wonder how she leads in a R+12 poll?)

Also I am so sick of my auto correct correcting "Sinema" with "cinema" and having to take time to change it back

Sinema is a lot smarter than Kirkpatrick. I have faith that she will win this race.