Talk Elections

February 12th, 2019

President Biden: "I will not seek re-election in 2020"
()

More Soon

---

Author's note: The only images that are my own are my maps and infoboxes. Any images of particular candidates are not mine, and the image belongs to their respective owners.

Mmm

Yes

:)

Let's goooooo

Part One: Warren vs Pence, the early front runners.

February 19th, 2019

()

One week since President Biden’s bombshell announcement, Vice President Elizabeth Warren has declared her presidential bid. With her entry, Warren captures the title of front runner for the Democrats, leading the national polling with 28% of likely voters. Currently, she is the sole Democrat in the race, but the field is widely expected to expand.

On the Republican side, Senator Mike Pence remains the early Republican frontrunner. The party’s 2016 Vice Presidential nominee, the Governor-turned-Senator leads the Republican Party in early polling. However, having recently taken office in the United States Senate, it seems unlikely that Pence will enter the race. He polls at 15% of likely Republican voters across the nation. Currently, two Republicans are running, Senator Ted Cruz and former Alabama judge Roy Moore.

During the 2016 Presidential election, Warren and Pence where their respective party's Vice Presidential Nominees. Pence was widely viewed as the winner of the sole Vice Presidential debate. In a hypothetical 2020 matchup, Senator Pence leads by 2 points over the Vice President.

---

Hypothetical Polling

Democratic Presidential Primaries

Vice President Warren -- 28%
Senator Bernie Sanders --  20%
Senator Kamala Harris -- 18%
Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton -- 12%
Senator Cory Booker -- 8%
Governor Andrew Cuomo -- 8%
Senator Jason Kander -- 2%
Senator Russ Feingold -- 2%
Senator Maggie Hassan -- 1%
Fmr. Congressman Seth Moulton -- 1%
Fmr. Governor Jerry Brown -- 1%

Republican Presidential Primaries

Senator Pence -- 15%
Senator Ted Cruz -- 12%
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 12%
Senator Ben Sasse -- 10%
Speaker Paul Ryan -- 10%
Donald Trump -- 9%
Senator Marco Rubio -- 8%
Senator Tom Cotton -- 7%
Governor Charlie Baker -- 5%
Governor Matt Bevin -- 5%
Senator Rand Paul -- 4%
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 3%
Congressman Justin Amash -- 2%

---

Unlike my other timelines, there will be a schedule for this timeline. Monday and Wednesday will have parts that are set in 2019 and the future. Friday Parts will be set in the gap between 2015, the point of divergence, and 2019, covering things such as the 2016 Primaries, the Biden Administration, midterms, Supreme Courts nominations, etc.

Ooh

Part Two: Crowded fields suggest divided parties



Fmr. Congressman Seth Moulton became the second Democrat to declare a presidential bid. He brought with him an anti-establishment message and a military background.


Governor Matt Bevin joined the Republican field the same day as Seth Moulton joined the Democratic. The retiring Kentucky Governor, his style and rhetoric mirror that of Donald Trump, while adding in 4 years of experience as a Governor.


With March starting, Senator Rand Paul declared his presidential bid. Seemingly unphased by Bevin’s entry, Paul was previously a presidential candidate in 2016, and withdrew after a poor showing in the Iowa Caucus.
Later in the month, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo declared his presidential bid. The two term governor of New York was recently elected to a third term, and maintains high approval ratings at home, although he has little name recognition outside of his home state.


April came with an explosion of Presidential candidates. Senator Cory Booker and Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley both declared their presidential bids on the same day. The New Jersey senator was widely seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, while the former South Carolina Governor was criticized by Bevin as “the darling of the establishment.”


In the second week of April, two more rising democrats would declare their own presidential bids. Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Kamala Harris would both enter the presidential fray. Both coming from two Strongly Democratic States, both drew comparisons to Fmr. Secretary Clinton, who had ruled herself out of the race months prior.

Former Florida Governor Rick Scott would enter the race next, running on a record of eight years of governing as a “principled conservative” and recovery from Hurricane Irma. He would be joined shortly by Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. The Wisconsin governor claimed that he withdrew prematurely from the 2016 contest, and when asked, said he could have defeated Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

[i
In the final week of April, three more candidates declared their candidacies. First, Former Ohio Governor John Kasich. Since his 2016 loss, John Kasich had been around the country preaching his message of unity and his view of “true conservatism.” The next day, New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio would declare his own presidential bid, seemingly undeterred by the presence of more “prominent” New Yorkers. Finally, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum would launch a third presidential bid.

The first week of May would not be defined by the number of candidates, rather the candidates themselves. Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s 2016 nominee, declared his third presidential bid. A platform almost identical to his 2016 platform, Trump promised to “fight harder and win bigger.”

Trump would not be the only democrat to enter the race in May. Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker entered the race on a platform of common sense and working together.  Democratic New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan would enter the race next, running on a platform of liberal credentials and experience.


The end of May would bring in three more rising stars from both parties. First,  Missouri Senator Jason Kander. At 39 years old, he would be the youngest president ever to hold office, and his liberal record and military background propelled him to national prominence. Fellow Senator Ben Sasse would declare shortly after him. Strongly Anti-Trump, and strongly Conservative, the first term Nebraska Senator styled himself as the chief critic to the Biden administration. Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro would also announce a presidential bid in his native San Antonio, claiming to be the candidate for a new Generation of Americans. Old favorite Martin O’Malley, having previously served as Secretary of Homeland Security in the Biden Administration, the former Maryland Governor and Baltimore Mayor was also a candidate in the 2016 Presidential election.


With June, two new Republicans entered the race. Early in the month, Senator Marco Rubio announced his second presidential bid, once again putting the senator into national spotlight. Texas Governor Greg Abbott would launch his first national campaign, with a high approval rating in the largest Republican stronghold, Abbott seemed like an obvious candidate.  The second to last democrat to enter the race came from the Aloha state. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard made national headlines in 2016 by becoming the first and only prominent democrat to endorse Senator Bernie Sander’s short lived presidential campaign.


In July, the final serious presidential candidates would launch their bids. First, former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas chose to announce his third presidential bid on the Fourth of July. The second week of the month, Carly Fiorina and Congressman Steve King would both declare bids for the Republican nomination. The final Republican and final Democrat would both declare on the same day. Former Governors Rick Snyder and John Hickenlooper would both announce their bids for president on July 29th, 2019. And with that, the presidential fields would be set. 13 Democrats and 18 Republicans in the largest presidential field in history.

()

Wow, these fields. Go Kander!

Special: Early Preparations

()

()

November 5th, 2014, was not a good night to be a Democrat, especially one in the Obama administration.  Republicans had surged to power, retaking the senate for the first time in almost a decade, and growing their house majority to the largest it had been since 1928.  While the public was still processing the results of 2014, the big names in the Democratic Party were already preparing for 2016. Shadow campaigns were already being ran by a number of candidates, but all eyes were on two people: Vice President Biden and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The two biggest names in the Democratic Party, both exploring runs for president. But for the two, exploring had radically different meanings. While both Clinton and Biden had been fundraising, Clinton had an already established grassroots network, and had hired much of the Democratic talent. But the issue was even more fundamental. Despite being the President’s right hand man, Biden was far less connected within the party than Hillary. She had been building alliances on a national level since her time as First Lady.

Though Biden’s inner circle was undeterred. Behind the scenes, Steve Ricchetti, a former Clinton staffer and the Chief of Staff to Vice President Biden, and Ted Kaufman, and long time Biden aid and personal friend, were already forming a campaign infrastructure and strategy. They weren't the only ones involved on the Biden 2016 campaign. Ron Klain, Tom and Mike Donilon, Shailagh Murray, and Valerie Biden-Owens made up the top level of the Biden campaign.

The strategy was also forming. Biden needed to win Iowa. Without it, the nomination would be out of reach. The Biden campaign believed that if they could win 3 out of 4 of the first primaries, they could lock up the nomination early. But, the general consensus was that if they didn’t win at least Iowa, the campaign would be dead on arrival.

Part Three: Republicans spar in the first debate.


The stage was St. Louis, Missouri. Site of the 2020 RNC. 17 of the 18 Republicans qualified, two debates. The “undercard” debate featured the bottom 9 candidates, while the “main event” featured the top 8. The placements were determined by average polling standing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nationally.


The 9 invited to the undercard debate where, from lowest position to highest position; Rick Snyder, Steve King, Rick Santorum,  Mike Huckabee, Rick Scott, Charlie Baker, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul and Nikki Haley. Paul and Scott refused to attend anything but the main stage debate. Their requests were denied. 

The chief issues of the debate were healthcare, Conservative Values, leadership, experience, and foreign policy.  When asked if the candidates would support a full repeal of Obamacare, the responses ranged from an enthusiastic “yes” to a flat “no.” All candidates agreed that Obamacare was broken, but none really presented a solution. Baker, the most moderate candidate on the stage, called for a repeal of the individual and a change to the business mandates, and cited the state of Massachusetts success as an example of a health care working correctly. His position, of a “soft” repeal, came out as the most controversial position of the healthcare debate, and set the stage for the rest of the night. Baker, the moderate, technocratic governor of a deep blue state, was an easy target for the rest of the stage. Still, Baker kept composure, and the constant attacks afforded him multiple replies and kept him in the spotlight most of the night. These two factors led many voters to christen Baker as the winner of the night. Other notable performances came from former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and Carly Fiorina. All three would experience bumps in the polls following the debate. The worst performance of the night came from Rick Santorum. Voters polled after the event used the words “unfocused and unprepared” to describe Rick Santorum. Comedian Stephen Colbert described it as “inane rambling.”


The main event went differently. The eight invited, in order of lowest position to highest position, where Matt Bevin, Greg Abbott, Ben Sasse, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, John Kasich and Ted Cruz.

The focus of the debate was meant to be healthcare, leadership, general election viability, and foreign policy. However, much of the debate was derailed by character attacks from Trump and Bevin, lobbed at almost every other candidate on stage. Kasich was attacked by Trump over his refusal to endorse him in 2016. Bevin attacked Cruz over the “vote your conscious” line at the RNC. Kasich fired back, calling Trump and Bevin “children” and said “A country where Donald Trump is President is not one I want to live in. Period.” Cruz fired back, saying that Bevin and Trump were trying to distract from the real issues. Even Sasse and Rubio joined in, with the former saying Bevin and Trump didn’t have the maturity to lead.  The ones who stayed out of the character attacks where Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Though that helped their favorability, it meant they didn’t get a lot of attention during the debate.  Most polls after the debate had Kasich, Sasse, and Rubio as the winners. Cruz and Bevin’s performances were rated poorly, while Trump, Abbott, and Walker were rated as neutral.

Following the debates, Trump responded on Twitter


Between the first and second debates, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Roy Moore, Steve King, Rick Scott, and Rick Snyder would suspend their campaigns. Santorum, Moore, and King endorsed Trump, while Scott endorsed Rubio, and Snyder endorsed Kasich.

---

Republican Party Polling: National, August 2019 (post Debate)

Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 14%
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 12%
Mr. Donald Trump -- 10%
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 10%
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 9%
Gov. Greg Abbott -- 8%
Gov. Scott Walker -- 6%
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 6%
Gov. Matt Bevin -- 5%
Gov. Charlie Baker -- 5%
Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 4%
Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
Others/Undecided -- 9%

This will be the largest primary field of the timeline, so luckily we won't have quite the clown car in the future.
Seems like Kander is the most popular candidate in the field. Interesting...

Kander 5ever.

Part Four: Democrats do it differently.

Des Moines, Iowa. The first Democratic debates. Two weeks following the Republican debate. Democrats did their debates differently. Rather than tier by polling, debates were randomized, with the field split in half.  The first debate, held August 13th, featured Kamala Harris, Andrew Cuomo, Seth Moulton, John Hickenlooper, Elizabeth Warren, Martin O’Malley, and Cory Booker.  The second debate, held August 20th, featured Julian Castro, Jason Kander, Tulsi Gabbard,  Bill De Blasio, Maggie Hassan, and Kirsten Gillibrand.


Both debates ran for two hours. The issues of the debate where healthcare, military spending, infrastructure spending, climate change, gun control, Russia, Terror Abroad, and the Resurgence of ISIS.


For the first debate. the biggest clash came over health care. What would each candidate fix about healthcare? Warren, Moulton, and Hickenlooper clashed over single-payer. Warren, a fierce advocate for socialized healthcare and “Medicare-for-all” was met with resistance from the former Congressman and Governor. She found an unlikely ally in the New Jersey Senator, who also voiced his support for single-payer healthcare, despite his ties to the pharmaceutical industry. Senator Kamala Harris also voiced her support for single payer, although she also expressed support for a public option. Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley and Hickenlooper called, broadly, for a “stabilization” of Medicare and Medicaid before talks of adopting an expanded healthcare system. Cuomo tried to paint Warren’s proposal as “nothing more than higher taxes and longer wait times for medicine people desperately need.” The New York Governor did say that he would support single payer if it could be done in a tax neutral way.

Cuomo’s position came across as flip-floppy. He had, when running for reelection in 2018, expressed support for a single payer system. When attacked on this, Cuomo tried to justify it saying that New York State had a more efficient and balanced economy than the nation as a whole, and that what works for New York won’t work for the entire nation. But the position was characterized as “Republican-lite,”  and the Governor’s overall performance was characterized as “robotic” and “uninspiring”, contrasted with the passion of Warren and Harris, and the charisma of Booker, made Cuomo the night's big loser. He was joined in the losers club by Seth Moulton, who spoke the least and felt out of place in the debate between top tier candidates. Also in the loser’s club was John Hickenlooper, who, after engaging Warren on healthcare, mostly kept quiet the rest of the night. He traded barbs with Harris over the issue of experience, and Booker over foreign policy, but ultimately went unnoticed throughout the rest of the night. The last member of the losers club was Martin O’Malley. His performance was bland and uninspiring. His main message was that he was the most ready candidate for the office, citing his two terms as governor and his tenure at the Department of Homeland Security. This message didn’t resonate well with voters, and most of O’Malley’s policy statements came across as vague or uninformed. The biggest winner of the night was Cory Booker. The rising star had more charisma than all of his opponents, and this helped him capture the attention of voters across America. The runner up of the night was fellow Senator Kamala Harris. While she lacked Booker’s charisma, voters rated her as the most “genuine” of the candidates on stage. In the middle was the Vice President, who was overshined by her younger challengers.


The other Democratic debate, featuring Julian Castro, Jason Kander, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill De Blasio, Maggie Hassan, and Kirsten Gillibrand, was similarly structured.

The issue of experience dominated the night. Readiness to be president was a regularly asked question. Kander, 39 years old, was a first term senator, Tulsi Gabbard, 39, a five term congresswoman, and Julian Castro, 47, a former HUD secretary, all tried to spin their youth as a strength, but it opened them up to questions about if they were ready to handle the office of President. Maggie Hassan, a Senator and former Governor, argued that it didn’t, and played her experience off as making her uniquely qualified to hold the office. Gillibrand argued that her experience in Congress was just as, if not more valuable, than Hassan’s experience as a Governor, since it gave her a deeper understanding of “national issues and policy.” Bill De Blasio argued that his tenure overseeing America’s largest city was more “impressive” than Hassan governing a state of 1.5 million people.

Jason Kander, the liberal swing-state senator, dominated the night. The most charismatic of the candidates, Kander’s youth and military background helped his favorability among voters. Similarly impressive was Tulsi Gabbard’s performance. The controversial Hawaii congresswoman attracted attention for her enthusiastic support of Bernie Sanders, but her past policy positions, and her foreign policy positions, particularly her position on Syria, made her a target of attack on the stage. Senators Maggie Hassan and Kirsten Gillibrand walked away mostly as they had entered. The losers of the night, Julian Castro and Bill De Blasio, both lost for different reasons. While Castro provided a “youthful energy”, most respondents felt that he hadn’t adequately explained why he was experienced enough to become President. While Bill De Blasio talked about his experience running one of America’s economic hubs, that was all he brought to the table. Voters felt the New York City Mayor was not prepared to deal with the intricacies of Foreign Policy.


Trump, as is tradition, responded on Twitter, attacking his Democratic rivals.

Between the first two and the next debates, Andrew Cuomo, Bill De Blasio, and Seth Moulton suspended their campaigns. Cuomo declined to make an endorsement, while Seth Moulton endorsed Jason Kander and Bill De Blasio endorsed Kirsten Gillibrand.

:)

:(

Special: Biden declares Presidential Bid, enters primary against Clinton and Sanders

May 30th, 2015

()

Vice President Joe Biden declared his Presidential bid from the White House Rose Garden, announcing alongside his wife Jill that he would be entering the race to be the Democratic Nominee. The announcement comes after months of speculation. Since the 2014 midterms, the Vice President has made numerous trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, giving speeches and campaigning for local candidates. Current polling has the Vice President placing second in the Democratic Primaries, trailing secretary Clinton 38% to 30%.

---

This special was short, so I figured I would put it up tonight and then put on a regular part on Friday.

Trump calling Mario Cuomo part of the mob would turn me from a rabid hater of Andrew Cuomo into a top supporter. What an effing asshole.

If Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire this time is it possible he drops out of the race completely

We shall see......

This is Trump we're talking about. I don't think he does. If he realizes it's numerially impossible to win the nomination he'd say it's rigged and run as an indy.

Part Five: Preview of the 2019 Gubernatorial Elections

()

Kentucky

Governor and Presidential Candidate Matt Bevin is retiring. Republican Congressman Tom Massie is the leading candidate to replace the governor. He defeated Lieutenant Governor Jenean M. Hampton in the primary. He will face Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes in the general election. Grimes beat back former Attorney General Jack Conway in the Democratic Primary. Massie leads Grimes 49% to 46%, with the narrow margin attributing to his predecessor's controversial nature. Still, President Biden and former President Obama campaigned on behalf of Grimes in the weeks prior

Rating: Tossup

Mississippi

Governor Phil Bryant is term limited, and can not seek another term in office. Republican Tate Reeves is the leading candidate to replace him. He is facing Democratic Former Governor Ray Mabus in the general election. Both where unopposed in their respective primaries.Former President Obama has been actively campaigning for Mabus ahead of the November Election. A top tier Democratic challenger has some national democrats hopeful that they can pull off an upset win, though Reeves leads polling 51 to 44%.

Rating: Lean Republican

Louisiana

Incumbent Governor John Bel Edwards is seeking re-election to another term. Louisiana uses Jungle primaries, and there are five candidates running. For the Democrats, Governor Bel Edwards is challenged by former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu. The Republicans running are State Attorney General Jeff Landry and U.S. Senator John Neely Kennedy.  The only independent in the race is businessman John Georges. Polling has the incumbent Governor leading the primary with 40% of the vote, followed in second by Senator Kennedy with 23%. Mayor Landrieu is in third with 18% of the vote. The possibility of two democratic candidates in the run off has many Democrats excited about the election.

Rating: Lean Democratic

We shall see.....

 I don't wanna be that guy, but it's Kirsten Gillibrand, not Elizabeth.

So the polling that went up just now was meant to go up after these next two parts, but since its already been up for a few hours, I'm just gonna leave it there.

---

Part Six: Second Republican Debate leaves Trump behind.

The second Republican Presidential Debate of 2020 was held on September in Des Moines, Iowa, on CNN. One again, the debate was tiered, splitting the bottom Six remaining candidates from the top six candidates. In the bottom six, Nikki Haley, Charlie Baker, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Matt Bevin, and Scott Walker faced off. Once again, Paul declined the invitation to debate in the undercard debate, and requested that he be placed in the top tier. Once again, his request was denied.

The main event was set to consist of Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Donald Trump, Greg Abbott, Ben Sasse, and Marco Rubio. However, the day before the debate, Trump tweeted:

And with that, the most bombastic of the Republican candidates was out of the debate. Candidates took the chance to shine in the spotlight absent Trump.

The issues of the debate were described to be the “hot button” issues of the day. Gerrymandering, Voter ID laws, Health Care, Tax Reform,The resurgence of ISIS, and homegrown terrorism.

Kasich and Cruz, the leading candidates, came out on top in the debate. Kasich gave detailed answers and policy plans, but still got in jabs at Senators Cruz and Sasse. Senator Cruz sought to fill the personality void established by Trump’s exit, and attacked the other candidates on their personality traits, as well as their policy. The biggest loser of the night was Marco Rubio. Once a rising star of the party, Rubio was mostly ignored by the other candidates on stage. He tried to establish a presence on the healthcare debate, but was overshadowed by Governors Kasich and Abbott. Ben Sasse and Greg Abbott had a neutral performance, with Abbot presenting his plan for a partial repeal/ total replacement of Obamacare, but falling flat on the terrorism debate. Sasse showcased strong foreign policy credentials, but failed to give an actual answer to the question of Tax Reform.  

In the undercard debate, Governor Matt Bevin filled the role of Donald Trump. Personality attacks, attacks on immigrants, foreigners, etc. Bevin embraced both Donald Trump and the Tea Party, and his performance captured media attention for this dual role. Notable performances also came from Governor Baker and Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley. The biggest losers of the night were Scott Walker and Carly Fiorina. Fiorina's performance came across as unprepared and unready, while Walker simply went unnoticed most of the night. He was attacked the least amount of any candidate on stage, giving him comparatively less time for rebuttal and less speaking time as a whole.

Between the Second and Third set of debates, Carly Fiorina and Greg Abbott would suspend their campaigns. Both endorsed Senator Cruz, though Governor Abbott’s withdrawal came as a shock, who had a strong debate performance and had been climbing in the polls, he told his supporters that there wasn’t a path to victory for him anymore.

Part Seven: Kander and Booker win big in second Democratic Debates.


()

Once again, the Democrats split the debate in two based on random assignment. The first debate featured Maggie Hassan, Tulsi Gabbard, Martin O’Malley, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand. The second debate featured Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, John Hickenlooper, Jason Kander, and Elizabeth Warren.

The key issues of each debate where international trade, Humanitarian aid, gun control, green energy, Welfare Spending and government spending.

In the first debate, Senators Booker and Gillibrand dominated the night. The two rising Democratic stars clashed frequently, and dominated the conversation during and after the debate. The two drew comparisons to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton respectively. Booker made gun control his pet issue, and focused on the harms of rampant gun violence, and highlighted his plan to reduce the number of firearms on the street. While Booker’s debate strategy was to focus heavily on one issue, Gillibrand highlighted a wider platform. Focusing on Green Energy and Government spending, Gillibrand also adopted a Sanders-eq position on international trade. Senator Maggie Hassan also gave a strong performance, though she was overshadowed by aforementioned candidates. Tulsi Gabbard, despite her strong performance in the first debate, failed to establish her presence on stage. When she finally got the spotlight on a question regarding Humanitarian Aid to African countries, she gave an answer related to welfare spending. When the moderators asked for clarification, she then answered the original question, ignoring her previous answer. Most voters felt that Gabbard wasn’t paying attention, and didn’t care about the debate. While O’Malley didn’t suffer quite a severe gaffe, one Washington Post columnist described the former Secretary’s performance as “sleep inducing.” He simply failed to capture the same attention as the other candidates.

In the second debate, Jason Kander benefited from another strong performance. He provided an impassioned defense of commonsense Gun Control and expanding green energy. He spoke against free trade, and talked about reforming humanitarian aid to prevent “subsidizing dictatorships.”  Fmr. Secretary Castro bounced back after his weak performance in the first debate, and detailed his plan for expanding healthcare access, while also expanding infrastructure spending to fix America's roads and increase economic efficiency. Harris, Hickenlooper and Warren’s performances were bland, and while they didn’t suffer the same type of gaffes that Gabbard, they simply didn’t attract attention that Kander and Castro did.

Between this debate and the next, fmr. Governor Hickenlooper and fmr. Secretary O’Malley suspended their campaigns. Both offered their endorsements to Vice President Warren.

Kander opposing free trade :(
Which of the dem candidates support free trade?

Let's go Jason!!!

To put it on a spectrum, of who is the most against free trade to the most in favor of free trade;

Gabbard, Warren, Gillibrand, Kander, Hassan, Castro, Booker.

Its also worth noting that, at this point, the Democratic Base is somewhat split on the issue.

Democratic Primary Poll: Position on Free Trade
In Favor of: 45%
In opposition of: 39%
No Opinion/Neutral: 16%

When we cover the 2016 election and the Biden admin, the issue of Free Trade will become fairly galvanized in the Democratic base. So while a plurality of voters are in favor of Free trade, a large number of those opposed are strongly opposed.

Oh, go Kander then! I'd just hope that he listens to sense and supports a policy of free trade rather than succumbing to populist protectionism as President :P

Special: Democrats Square off in First 2016 Debate

()

The Democratic Party's first presidential debate ahead of the 2016 U.S. presidential election was held on October 13, 2015, at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada.
.Analysis on the debate was largely mixed regarding who, between the top three candidates, won. Some analysts from CNN and BBC viewed Clinton as the winner, while other publications such as The Washington Post and The Chicago Tribune viewed Biden as the Winner and the Fox News Channel claimed that Sanders was the winner. Conversely, Chafee, O'Malley and Webb were all widely regarded as the losers. The three failed to be notice on a stage, and when they did, they didn’t leave a lasting impression.

The first major issue of the debate was healthcare. Sanders won big on this debate, with his single payer plan capturing the imagination of voters and catching fire among young voters. Biden seemingly changed his positions. He voiced support for single payer “if a plan came in front of him to pay for it.” Senator Clinton expressed similar positions, but added in extra caution.

The next key focus of the debate was the Supreme Court vacancy. Both Sanders and Clinton avoided committing anyone to nomination, however, Sanders did commit to finding the most progressive justice qualified. This, combined with comments made prior to the debate about Merrick Garland, led many to correctly believe Sanders would not nominate Garland. Sanders confirmed this the following day in an interview, but declined to state who he would nominate. Clinton danced around the issue. Biden however, broke with the other two candidates, and expressed strong support for Merrick Garland.

Other issues covered with less focus was college affordability, foreign policy, and electability. Biden didn’t suffer from his trademark slippery lipped nature, and came across as the most “genuine” and “likeable” among candidates. Sanders performance resonated among young voters. Clinton, in general, appeared the weakest among the three candidates.

Part Eight: The Democrats "Endorsement Primary"

Vice President Elizabeth Warren

()

Warren has captured the support of several establishment and progressive Democrats. She has easily the most endorsements of any of her Democratic Rivals. The most notable comes from Senator and former Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders, the progressive independent from Vermont. She has also received the support of Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Tina Smith (D-MN), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Russ Feingold (D-WI), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH). She has also received the support of numerous Representatives, most notably Peter Welch (D-VT) and Keith Ellison (D-MN). She also has the support of almost the entire current congressional delegation in Massachusetts (The only one withholding is Congressman Lynch). The only sitting Governor to have endorsed her is Governor Steve Bullock of Montana Rounding off her endorsements are former Secretary of State John Kerry and former Attorney General Loretta Lynch. Her progressive credentials and close ties to the Democratic establishment help her in this department. She has also recived the support of her former Presidential Rivals John Hickenlooper and Martin O’Malley

Senator Cory Booker

()

The rising star has captured his own slate of impressive endorsements. Civil rights leader and congressman John Lewis (D-GA) has been the most noticeable, but he has also received the home state support of Governors Phil Murphy (D-NJ) and the entire Democratic congressional delegation from New Jersey. Other notable endorsements include Senators Gary Peters (D-MI), Ron Wyden (D-OR), and Jack Reed (D-RI). A few other notable endorsements come from former Representative and current Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) and suprisngly former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

Senator Kamala Harris

()

Kamala Harris lacks any major endorsements from outside of her home state. However, the entire congressional delegation, and all statewide office holders, have endorsed their favorite daughter. California, being much of the Democratic power base,  gives Harris a massive fundraising springboard and a vast well of support, even if her nationwide support is lacking compared to the other candidates.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand

()

Much like Senator Harris, Senator Gillibrand has struggled to obtain high profile endorsements from outside her home state. Unlike Harris, she has had some sucesess. She has the endorsement of the entire New York Democratic Congressional delegation, except for two Representatives. This includes Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. Outside of her home state, the two most high profile endorsements she has obtained are Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA) and Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH).

Senator Jason Kander

()
.
Kander’s endorsements have been weaker. The most high profile endorsements have come from Former Presidential candidate Seth Moulton (D-MA) and Senator Jon Tester (D-MN). Also on that list is former Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO). Rounding out his endorsement list is Congressmen Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Greg Stanton (D-AZ), and Dave Loebsack (D-IA). He also has the backing of the Missouri Democratic congressional delegation.

Senator Maggie Hassan

()

While the New Hampshire Democratic party is firmly behind her, that’s basically it. She does have the support of Illinois Attorney General Pat Quinn, but beyond that she boasts no endorsements outside of the small state of New Hampshire.

Fmr. Secretary Julian Castro

()

The former HUD secretary boasts two major endorsements. The first comes from his brother, Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX). The second, and stranger, comes from former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY).

Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard

()

The Hawaii Congresswoman has no major endorsements. The most high profile endorsement, if it can be called that, is from former Ohio state Senator and Current President of Our Revolution Nina Turner (D-OH). However, the organization as a whole remains split on which candidate to back, with many supporting Gabbard and many supporting Warren.

---

Right now, Republican endorsements are spread much thinner, so that part will come later after the Iowa Caucus

Part Nine:Final Pre Iowa Mega Update
Since it has been a while, and the TL is starting to stagnate, we are gonna cover the last Four Months before Iowa in this one, long part.

---

()

For the third debate, both parties found their fields of qualified candidates to be small enough for a single stage for each. For the Republicans, former Governor Mike Huckabee was polling too low to qualify for the debate, and suspended his campaign shortly after the debate. Senator Rand Paul barely made the cut, and participated in his first debate of the 2020 presidential election. Paul’s sudden reappearance did not go unnoticed, and he quickly became one of the main punching bags of the night. Already polling low, the poor performance combined with the constant attacks from all on the stage, the Psuedo-Libertarian was universally seen as the biggest loser of the night. He would finally put his campaign out of its misery the week following the debate. The next biggest loser of the night was Governor Charlie Baker. Although his policy wonk nature makes him popular in his home state, it doesn’t translate well to primary voters in Iowa and across the nation. Combine this with the moderate governor’s unpopular stances (among Republicans) regarding abortion and climate change, and that was enough to put his campaign teetering on the edge. Still, the Governor was convinced that he could sway voters to his side, and remained in the race despite the poor performance. Baker’s polar opposite was the next biggest loser, Governor Matt Bevin. Voters could barley stomach one Trump-esq candidate, and that was a space firmly occupied by the man himself. Bevin’s attempts to out-Trump Trump didn’t go over well with voters, and the nominees prior failures only reinforced that. He would suspend his campaign in the face of low polling numbers and a lack of campaign money, and mount a write-in campaign for a second term in his Governor’s office. In terms of who won the debate, the answer was fairly mixed. The Washington Post, New York Times, and FOX News analysts agreed that the winners of the debate where Haley, Sasse, and Trump. Following his absence in the second debate, Trump struck back with a vengeance, unleashing attacks on every candidate who dared to cross him. He seemed angrier than ever, and his supporters loved it. However, his detractors became more solidified in their hatred of him. Senator Sasse made this clear. He focused his attacks on the Donald and President Biden, and varied his attacks on the two. With Trump, he focused an attack on the candidates persona, while Biden he launched an attack focused solely on the President’s record. Haley followed a similar strategy to the later. She tended to ignore the squabbling of the other candidates on stage, and focused her attacks on the sitting president. She also gained attention for being the last woman in the race, something that would boost her name recognition in the media.

()
For the democrats, the eight remaining candidates all attempted to score points by attacking front runner Elizabeth Warren. But many also danced around her presence on stage. To attack her, in many ways, was to attack President Biden, who remained a popular and unifying figure among Democrats. The big winners of the night where the usual group. Booker and Kander won points for their youth and charisma, Warren remained the favorite of many progressives. Gillibrand and Harris, central figures in the fight against Sexual Harassment in Washington, and their records on the issue boosted their stances among women voters, but both still trailed the Vice President, though Gillibrand particularly had been gaining. The others were ultimately just there. Castro had charisma, but with Booker and Kander already eating up most of the limelight, that alone wasn’t enough to net him points, Hassan faded into the background early on, and Gabbard simply didn’t have enough supporters to begin with. She lacked a base to run on, as progressives favored the Vice President over the Congresswoman. Ultimately, after failing to make an impression at the third debate, and in an attempt to piece her political career back together, Gabbard withdrew from the race, and ran for re-election to her house seat.  Castro, in an attempt to save grace, also withdrew, both of them backing Warren.

---

Both parties would hold two more debates between September, when the third debates were held, and February, when the Iowa Caucus would take place. Neither brought changes in the field of candidates, and neither had any particularly notable one liners or gaffes. Haley and Trump again won the fourth debate, while Sasse and Cruz were viewed as the winners of the fifth debate. On the democratic side, Kander and Booker continued to impress, while Warren attempted to make up lost ground.

---

()
In Kentucky, Democrat Alison Grimes pulled off a narrow, upset victory, in the three way race for Governor. Incumbent Governor Matt Bevin ran as a write in candidate, while the official Republican nominee was Congressman Tom Massie.Grimes won with a margin of 1.2%. A Recount was filed, but denied by a Kentucky judge.

In Louisiana, Incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards faced several opponents in the State’s Jungle Primary. He prevailed in the first round with 40% of the vote, and second place was won by U.S. Senator John Neely Kennedy with 22% of the vote, beating out third place candidate Former Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who took 16% of the vote. In the second round of voting, Bel Edwards soundly defeated Kennedy by a margin of 11.6%

In Mississippi, Republican Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves defeated former Governor Ray Mabus soundly. Mabus, being considered one of the Democrats’ top recruits, attracted national attention and support, but ultimately fell short by a margin of 15.1%

---

Polling: In final poll before Iowa, Cruz continues to lead narrowly in Iowa, New Hampshire Tie between Kasich, Trump, and Haley leads comfortably in South Carolina. Warren still tied with Kander in Iowa, Hassan leads narrowly in her home state, and Booker looms large in South Carolina. Nationwide, Cruz and Trump tied as Kasich slumps. Warren struggles to convince voters of her electability against charismatic challengers.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- February 2019 Polling

• Vice President Warren -- 22%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 22%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 18%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 14%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 10%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 6%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 24%
• Vice President Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 20%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 6%
• Undecided/Others -- 9%

South Carolina Democratic Primary -- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 32%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 25%
• Vice President Warren -- 13%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 7%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

National Democratic Primaries -- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 28%
• Vice President Warren -- 25%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 16%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 15%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 13%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 9%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

Iowa Republican Caucus-- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 23%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 22%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 16%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 12%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 7%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 4%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 3%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- February 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  23%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 23%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 15%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 8%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 5%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

South Carolina Republican Primary-- February 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 35%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 12%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 7%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 7%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 6%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  5%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 15%

National Republican Primary-- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 20%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 20%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 15%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 10%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 7%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

Next Part: Iowa Democratic Caucus Results, 2016.

Also, I don't know if every election will have infoboxes and district maps, it depends on how much work they will be for the other elections.

Wow if Jason wins Iowa.....

Within the context of the timeline, many pundits agree that Kander winning Iowa could be a deathblow to the Warren Campaign. She is considered unlikely to win in New Hampshire (although its possible) and Nevada, while Booker and Harris are dominating the South Carolina polling.

SPECIAL: IOWA '16

All nationwide, and many internationally, where focused on the Hawkeye state. Polling conducted before indicated that for both parties, the caucus would be a three (wo)man race. On the Republican side, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio battled for the soul of the Republican Party. A similar struggle was ongoing on the Democratic side. Although officially a four man race, only three candidates were considered serious contenders. Vice President Biden, Former Secretary of State Clinton, and Senator Bernie Sanders were locked in a tight three way race in Iowa.

While Republicans knew their winner at a little after 10, Democrats were still stuck in a dead heat after polls closing.

Iowa Democratic Caucus, 10PM:


In the Sanders camp, the result proved that the progressive Senator was still in the race. However, the Biden camp had focused heavily on Iowa, and while the state wasn’t called yet, the prospect of losing the Hawkeye state pu the campaign on edge, and without it, many in the Biden inner circle felt the nomination was out of reach. By 11 at night, things seemed to be turning around. And at 11:26PM, the race would finally be called

Iowa Democratic Caucus, 11:26PM:

---

()

Clinton congratulated Biden at 11:35PM. She gave a brief, 6 minute speech, thanking her supporters and also congratulating Senator Sanders. Biden gave a speech shortly after, giving a standard victory speech. While many high level democrats remained neutral in public, behind closed doors, there was a consensus that following the results of Iowa, the Democrats were heading towards a long nomination process.

Each Candidate claimed victory in some way. Sanders used the results to argue that he was still in contention for the nomination, despite lacking the money or establishment connections of the other candidates. Clinton claimed “momentum”, saying that she overperformed expectations (a dubious claim at best), while Biden had the outright victory on his side. The Biden Campaign also claimed momentum, having closed a 10 point polling gap in the two weeks prior to the Iowa Caucus. Still, New Hampshire would remain a critical proving ground for all three of the candidates. The one candidate who could not claim victory was Governor O’Malley. O’Malley suspended his campaign following an abysmal performance, taking only .2% of the vote. He offered his support, what little he had, to Vice President Biden following his withdrawal.

For the candidates remaining in the race, all eyes shifted to the Granite State...

Part Ten: IOWA 2020

---

[center()[/center]


Following the Caucuses, Governor Walker suspended his presidential campaign. Governor Walker’s withdrawal was overdue according to many. He had never polled within the top three, and he stood little chance of winning the nomination from the get go. One Washington Post analyst claimed that Governor Walker “missed his chance” in the 2016 race.

The big winner of the night was Donald Trump. Not only had he won, he had won by 16 points. He had reclaimed the frontrunner position that he had been trying to seize from the Cruz Campaign since the start of the race. Now, the nomination was his to lose. He had momentum on his side, and his supporters were more emboldend than ever before. While it might be easy to call Warren the other big winner, her win was much less impressive. She only narrowly beat back Kander, and beyond that her win simply didn’t carry the importance. Unlike Trump’s win, it didn’t propel her to the front of the pack, it simply kept her campaign afloat. The Kander campaign claimed the second place finish meant that momentum was on his side.

The biggest loser of the night was Senator Cruz. Not only did he lose, he didn’t even place second. He had underperformed Trump by 20%. His campaign was hemorrhaging support and money. Many Republican leaders and politicians, who were supporting Cruz to try and deny Trump the nomination, where now looking at the Kasich, Sasse, and even Haley Campaigns. The Rubio campaign was also now dead, but its corpse would be dragged along by the GOP for a little while longer.

Goddammit Iowa Democrats, you were so close to getting it right.

I just finished "Promise Me, Dad." This TL is great, wish it was real life...

I'm actually reading through the book now, its why I've been writing this tl a lot lately. Anyway,

---

Part Eleven: Tense Times before New Hampshire


Biden: “Warren is Worrisome. Kander and Booker more likable.”

()

During an interview, Biden suffered another of his trademark gaffes. When answering questions about the current Democratic field, Biden spoke to each of the candidates strengths, while avoiding endorsing any particular candidate. When asked about his Vice President, Elizabeth Warren, Biden spoke about her strong credentials, and leadership as Vice President. However, as the conversation continued, Biden was asked why the Kander and Booker campaigns where gathering steam. In response,  Biden began to talk about the “electability” of Warren, and said that it was worrying how voters seemed not to like her. He also stated that voters seemed to like Kander and Booker more. The interview wrapped up shortly after, but the damage had been done to the Warren Campaign.

---

Candidates make final pitch to voters before Critical New Hampshire Primary.

()

In the final debate before the New Hampshire primary, each candidate found themselves making a pitch to voters. Not only on policy, but on their viability as candidates. In that regard, Ted Cruz and Elizabeth Warren found difficulty in convincing their respective parties of their electability. Ted Cruz was never the most popular individual, to put it kindly. So now, having the core message of his campaign undercut, and having lost the status as the chief “Never Trump” candidate, many of his supporters, especially those in Republican Leadership, began to doubt his candidacy. Senator Mike Lee, once one of Cruz’s chief supporters in the Senate, endorsed Ben Sasse following the Iowa Caucus. However, the Cruz campaign became convinced that a good debate performance could reverse the trend, and help him recapture support. That’s not how it happened however. Cruz suffered from a lackluster performance, and committed a fairly noticeable gaffe. When asked if he would support Donald Trump if he was the nominee, Cruz said plainly that “I could never support Donald Trump.” When challenged on his support of Donald Trump in 2016, Cruz claimed that he never endorsed Trump, only the Republican Party.  Needless to say, voters saw this as a weak excuse. The rest of his performance didn’t make up for this either. On the Democratic side, Warren was plagued by the same issue to plagued Hillary Clinton. Voters liked her record, and her policy positions, but as a candidate she was uncharismatic, and many felt she was unelectable. Add to these concerns the Biden gaffe that occurred just days before the New Hampshire Primary, and Warren’s campaign was stuck with a ghost it couldn’t shake. This problem was only made worse by the likability of Booker, Kander, Gillibrand, and Harris. In the end, it crushed what little (if any) momentum she had from her narrow win in Iowa, and solidified Booker’s lead in the nationwide polling.

Following the debate, Trump lashed out at his Republican Rivals on his favorite platform.

()

Especially John Kasich,

()

New Hampshire polling shows Hassan and Kasich in trouble. Harris gains on Booker in South Carolina, while Haley’s lead grows. Nationwide, Booker and Trump lead their packs, with challengers close behind.

New Hampshire Democratic Primary

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 22%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 9%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

South Carolina Democratic Primary

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 30%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 28%
• Vice President Warren -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 10%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 6%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

National Democratic Primaries

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 24%
• Vice President Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 18%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

New Hampshire Republican Primary

• Mr. Donald Trump -- 22%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  21%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 20%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 5%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 5%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

South Carolina Republican Primary

• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 39%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 14%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 12%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 6%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 16%

National Republican Primary/u]

• Mr. Donald Trump -- 22%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 17%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 17%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 16%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 10%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

This is a little late but I'm so happy that Alison Lundergan Grimes is now the Governor of Kentucky

Ok so I made the 2016 infobox, then lost it due to my laptop dying. Sooo, we are gonna do the 2020 Post for New Hampshire First, the aftermath post, than the 2016 New Hampshire post.

---

Part Twelve: New Hampshire, 2020




Following the primaries, many pundits expected Senator Hassan to withdraw her candidacy. However, in a speech to supporters, she claimed a moral victory in the primary. In her view, despite Gillibrand outspending her by 20% or more in the state, Hassan still only narrowly lost. Her spin to supporters was to use this as an example of her besting big money interests, and painted Senator Gillibrand as the wall street candidate in her concession speech. She pledged to stay in the contest, and pull ahead to win the nomination, despite polling dead last. Warren, still running from the Biden Gaffe Machine, only barely managed to get delegates from the granite state. For Gillibrand, the results propelled her into the front page of most major news outlets. Her name recognition increased exponentially, despite her narrow win. Her momentum allowed her to gain in the polls, and her status as a top tier candidate was solidified.

()

On the Republican side, once again, Donald Trump claimed victory. After pouring all of his money into the Granite State, Governor Baker came out the biggest loser. With no clear path forward, Charlie Baker withdraw, claiming it was unfair to the people of his state and his supporters to continue running with no path to victory. He offered no endorsement after his withdrawal. John Kasich and Donald Trump both claimed victory in some way. In Kasich’s camp, it solidified that the Ohio Governor could stand up to Trump, and reinforced Kasich’s argument that he should be the party’s “Anti-Trump” candidate. Donald Trump claimed that the results made him the presumptive nominee. Indeed, having won both the New Hampshire and Iowa contests, Trump was now solidified as the frontrunner, and had solid momentum on his side. Most other candidates weren't buying his argument, and the opposition to Trump stood firm, preparing for South Carolina and Nevada.

---

Author's Note: The date is wrong on both infoboxes. Didn't feel like redoing them to fix it.

Author's Note*: Democrats don't publish the popular vote totals from Iowa, thus this is based solely on New Hampshire.

Huh, Kander's actually winning pledged delegates! Might there still be some hope after all?

Hassan losing her home state and still not dropping out? Hmmmmmm...

Part Thirteen: Fallout

Make America Great Again, Again

()

On the Tucker Carlson show, the titular host proclaimed that winning both Iowa and New Hampshire made Donald Trump the presumptive nominee. And many in the Republican Party began to agree with him. The most prominent “Never Trump” Republicans, Evan McMullin, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, and Jeb Bush began to publicly discuss the potential for a third party conservative candidate to enter the race, although only Evan McMullin left the door open for that candidate to be himself. And many establishment Republicans began to jump ship to the Trump Campaign. Tom Cotton, once a supporter of Ted Cruz, endorsed Trump after the New Hampshire primary, and called on his party to rally around the New York Businessman. Cotton was not the only one. Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, and numerous more “establishment” Republicans endorsed Trump, or at least toned down their anti-Trump rhetoric. Still, while most of the opposition to Trump was disheartened, many remained firm. Congressman Justin Amash, Senators Susan Collins and Lindsey Graham, and Former President George Bush all expressed doubt that Trump could win the nomination, despite his back to back victories.  The biggest hurdle to declaring Trump the presumptive nominee was the South Carolina contest. While he won the Palmetto State comfortably in 2016, Fmr. South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley remains deeply popular, and polls well above Mr. Trump. A commanding win for Haley could stop Trump’s momentum, and change the tide of the primary.

---

Old Guard Retirements kick off leadership races in DC

()

Back in December of 2018, Senator Mitch McConnell announced his intention to retire at the end of his term. The Senate Majority Leader remains deeply unpopular in his home state, and nationwide, and his public feud’s with the Tea Party and Donald Trump would have invited numerous primary challengers, and his withdrawal from the race increases the likelihood that an establishment Republican can hold the seat. It also represents the end to his term as Senate Majority Leader. The race to replace Senator McConnell as floor leader has taken place mostly behind closed doors, although former Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, Current whip John Thune, Senator John Barrasso, and Senator Tom Cotton have all expressed their desire to replace McConnell. Senator John Hoeven is also discussed as a possible replacement.

On the Democratic Side, Senator Dick Durbin, the current minority whip, is also retiring at the end of his term. The three leading Democrats to replace Durbin are Senators Amy Klobuchar, Chris van Hollen, and Patty Murray, and DC insiders indicate that Klobuchar is the more likely candidate. The Democrats are also contending with the retirement of Nancy Pelosi, who will not be seeking re-election. Her second in command, Steny Hoyer, seemed like the obvious choice to replace her, but announced that he would instead stay as Democratic Whip. Representatives Cheri Bustos, Tim Ryan, Ben Ray Lujan, Joseph Crowley and Hakeem Jeffries have all joined a crowded race to lead the Democrats in the House.

---

()

Saturday, February 8th, 2020: Senator, and 2008 GOP Presidential Nominee John McCain has passed away in his struggle against Brain Cancer. He was 83, and is survived by his seven children and numerous grandchildren. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey has announced that he will appoint State Treasurer Jeff DeWit to replace Senator McCain. The nation, and many prominent political figures, mourned Senator McCain’s passing. President Biden issued a statement, calling Senator McCain a true American hero and public servant. Former President Obama stated “John was one of the best men I ever knew.” Presidential candidate Donald Trump called McCain “a true patriot,” while Fmr. Governor John Kasich called McCain “a leader among leaders.”

Ok so the next part is about 70% done, and will be up either Monday or Tuesday. I wanted to make a brief meta post and explain the comings and goings.

First, I was considering Eric Greitens to be a 2020 GOP presidential candidate, and decided against adding him last minute. Should a scandal like Greiten's come out about a figure already in the timeline, I will try to write the person in question out of the timeline, but if that is not possible, the scandal will be ignored/butterflied out. Second, I am going on a 5 day vacation, followed by my next semester at University. As such, I'm not gonna be able to do infoboxes for every race. I've already made all but one infobox for the next post, so that isn't a concern. They won't go away entirely, but they will be disappearing for a time. Third, the specials aren't going to be a major focus anymore. They aren't as interesting to write, and I am sure they aren't as interesting to read. They will still come out, but not as frequently as I originally planned. Fourth, and finally, I would like to hear some feedback or thoughts on the timeline.

Part Fourteen: Downfall

NEVADA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS, 2020

SOUTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY 2020


For the Republican party, the results put a stop to Trump’s string of wins, in a state that supported him overwhelmingly in 2016. Still, Haley was a popular former Governor from the Palmetto State, so her win shouldn’t be so surprising. Still, stalling the Trump train at the station has always been the goal of the GOP establishment, and now they had a mark on Trump’s record of victory.
On the Democratic Side, Bookers win in Nevada is unsurprising. With the support of Harry Reid, the state’s long time Democratic Senator, and Catherine Cortez Masto, the State’s Senior Democratic Senator, Booker seemed fated to win the Nevada contest. Still, his win was smaller than expected, and Harris regained some momentum with a strong second place showing over Vice President Elizabeth Warren. Kander’s campaign lost steam, failing to meet the threshold to capture any delegates. The poor showing in Nevada also slowed the momentum of the Gillibrand campaign, who placed worse than Kander.

SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, 2020

NEVADA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS, 2020

Once again, Booker claimed victory on the Democratic Side. With strong margins among the African American communities (rivaled only by Senator Harris) carried him to victory. Harris continued her second place streak, and maintained momentum from the Nevada contest. Kander eked out a third place finish, and just barely qualified to receive delegates.
On the Republican side, Trump proved that he wasn’t out of the race yet, with a first place finish in Nevada. Rubio had a strong second place showing, which he hoped would regain momentum after disappointing showings in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Sasse and Haley proved themselves to be the main anti-Trump alternatives, with third and fourth place showings respectively.

BREAKING: Senator Ted Cruz suspends presidential bid.



After four consecutive poor showings, Ted Cruz finally suspended his presidential campaign. Once the GOP front runner, Cruz had repeatedly finished poorly in the first four contests, and failed to win a single one. In his withdrawal speech, Cruz claimed that he no longer had a path to victory, and thanked his supporters. Breaking with expectations, Cruz endorsed Nikki Haley in his withdrawal speech, in a move that was widely unexpected. He called the former South Carolina Governor “The conservative leader America needs”, and spent the majority of his speech attacking front runner Donald Trump.

Part Fifteen (Part 1): Super Tuesday, 2020

Alabama:

Arkansas:

Arizona:

California:


Colorado:

Georgia:

Massachusetts:

Minnesota:

Oklahoma:

Tennessee:

Texas:

Vermont:

Virginia:

---

Stay tuned for Republican Results and the Aftermath/

Hm, Kander is doing... alright. He has a chance, but it looks like it's heading for a convention. Gillibrand and Hassan are most likely done, and Booker could soon be done too if he doesn't manage to expand his base beyond the deep south. If I had to guess, it's Harris or Kander.

GO JASON!!!

----


Alabama:

Arkansas:

California:

Colorado:
Unbound Caucus vote, Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley won, earning 23 Delegates, while Fmr. Governor John Kasich and Mr Donald Trump both earned 7.

Georgia:

Massachusetts:

Minnesota:

Ohio:

Oklahoma:

Tennessee:

Texas:

Vermont:

Virginia:

---

Senators Hassan, Gillibrand, and Sasse, withdraw from Presidential Race, Haley and Harris the new frontrunnners.

After poor showings on Tuesday Contests, the race for the White House dwindled to 7, with the withdrawal of four U.S Senators from the primary contests. On the Democratic side, Senators Maggie Hassan (NH) and Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) ended their white house bids. Senator Hassan, who massively trailed her opponents, was widely expected to withdraw after losing her home state, but instead pledged to stay in the race. But with her money and support drying up, her campaign staff was beginning to call it quits, and the candidate decided to withdraw. The collapse of Kirsten Gillibrand is more significant. After a promising first place finish in the New Hampshire primary, the Gillibrand campaign quickly fizzled out, failing to convert the momentum from her victory into actual support. Shortly after her withdrawal, Senator Gillibrand endorsed Vice President Elizabeth Warren, while Hassan endorsed Senator Kamala Harris.

On the Republican side, Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who had a similarly poor showing in Super Tuesday, withdrew. Despite a promising second place finish in Iowa, Senator Sasse told supporters that he had no path to victory. Sasse presented an “anti-endorsement” of Donald Trump, and praised Senator Rubio, and the two former Governors.

Imagine if the U.S. presidential election ends up being between two Indian-American women, that'd be something.

So it seems like Hostthenpost went down or something. I'm not sure if it is permenant or not, so I'm gonna give it a few days, and if it doesn't come back up, I'll reupload them to Google Photos and post them there. Going forward, I will probably just use google photos. The links are a lot messier, if anyone knows a way to fix that let me know, but the images come out looking a lot better on google photos than Atlas' native hosting.

Edit: Google photos seem only to appear on my end. Gonna have to use the Atlas native hosting service. If anyone has a better one, let me know. I'm aware the quality has dropped, but until I find a better hosting platform, its all I got.

---

Part 16: The Path Forward


Nikki Haley, the new establishment leader.

The Fmr. South Carolina Governor had proven her metal on Super Tuesday, maintaining her lead over the bombastic Donald Trump and her other challengers. Now Haley was earning endorsements from establishment leaders across the Republican party. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, Senator Bob Corker, Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer, Missouri Governor Eric Greitens, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and the Bush family all endorsed Haley shortly before or shortly after the Super Tuesday contests. And with a significant bump in the polls, Haley now seemed to be in control of the Republican party. Still, Rubio and Kasich continued to siphon establishment support, but Haley had been established as the main alternative to Trump.


Leaked Memo: Rubio campaign “going all in on Florida.”

In a memo leaked to the New York Times from the Florida Senator’s campaign, the desperate nature of the Rubio campaign was on full display. Following a worse-than expected performance on Super Tuesday, the Rubio campaign has decided to divert the majority of its funding to his home state in an attempt to regain momentum. Still, polling indicates that he won’t waltz to victory, and he is certain to face a difficult battle for the future of his political career.

Biden 2020? Democrats prepare for contested convention as candidates fight for every vote.


Following the Super Tuesday contests, California Senator Kamala Harris surpassed Vice President Elizabeth Warren in terms of total delegates. However, despite being the leading Democrat in the race, Senator Harris would need to win 73% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. In a race with four candidates, that is a possible by highly unlikely scenario. Many Democrats have begun to talk about nominating a “compromise candidate,” one who hasn’t ran in the Democratic Primary, but could still unify the party. The most commonly mentioned name is President Joe Biden, but the white house seems reluctant to open that door. In a press briefing, Biden’s press secretary stated that the President doesn’t seem himself as a potential candidate, but remains confident that the Democrats would nominate a strong candidate regardless.

Meanwhile, of the candidates actually running, each is trying to muscle the others out of the race. The Warren Campaign and Kander Campaigns have clashed numerous times in the midwest, while Harris and Booker are trying to muscle each other out in the South.When approached for a comment, each campaign voiced confidence that they could secure the nomination on the first ballot.  The numbers however, are not in any of the candidates favor.

---

Democratic Presidential Primary Polling -- Nationwide (Remaining voters)
Senator Kamala Harris -- 24%
Senator Cory Booker -- 22%
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 22%
Senator Jason Kander -- 22%
Undecided -- 9%

Republican Presidential Primary Polling -- Nationwide (Remaining Voters)
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30%
Mr. Donald Trump -- 26%
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 20%
Senator Marco Rubio -- 16%
Undecided -- 8%

Republican Presidential Primary Polling -- Florida
Senator Marco Rubio -- 32%
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 28%
Mr. Donald Trump -- 25%
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 10%
Undecided -- 5%

---

Super Saturday Contests:

Democrats Abroad Caucus:

Kansas Democratic Caucus:

Kansas Republican Caucus:

Louisiana Democratic Primary:

Louisiana Republican Primary:

Nebraska Democratic Caucus:

Kentucky Republican Primary:

Maine Democratic Caucus:

Maine Republican Caucus:

Wyoming Democratic Caucus:

Wyoming Republican Convention:
Convention vote, with Mr. Donald Trump winning 18 Delegates, Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley winning 7 Delegates, and Senator Marco Rubio winning 4 Delegates

---

()

()

I also had problems with pictures in my first TL, but just using links from google with the Atlas [img] code works very well. If I want to resize etc, I just save the pictures, open them in Gimp (photoshop for poor people), resize them to a width of 650 and see what's their height in that size, and enter the width and height to the code: [img width=650 height=X]. If I have any custom pictures (like a combination of a few, debates etc), I upload them to Tinypic. It seems like a stable image host.
And this is great. Hoping Kander can make a resurgence once states like Ohio and Missouri start voting.

Special: 2018 Gubernatorial Elections (Part 2/4)

Hawaii:
In Hawaii, one of the nation’s most Democratic states, incumbent Governor David Ige sought a second term in office. Due to low approvals, he faced heavy opposition in the primary from U.S. Rep Colleen Hanabusa, who ultimately defeated Ige in the primary. She faced Andria Tupola, a state representative, in the General Election. Hanabusa easily won, 65% to 33%.

Result: D Hold (R+2)

Idaho:
In Idaho, Incumbent Governor Butch Otter declined to seek another term. The republican primary to replace him was fought mostly between Congressman Raul Labrador and Lt. Gov. Brad Little, the former of which emerged victorious. The democrats nominated their 2014 nominee, A.J. Balukoff, who was easily defeated on election day, 58% to 37%

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Illinois:
In Illinois, incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner sought a second term in office. He faced opposition from Conservatives within his own party, who rallied around State Representative Jeanne Ives. Rauner narrowly defeated Ives in the primary, 51% to 48%. On the Democratic side, State Senator Daniel Biss upset Businessmen J.B. Pritzker and Chris Kennedy, winning the primary 33%-32%-25%. After a bitter and narrow general election campaign, the race was considered a tossup on election day. In the end, Senator Biss narrowly won the race, 49% to 49%.

Result: D Gain (R+1)

Iowa:
In Iowa, incumbent Governor Terry Branstad was eligible to seek another term, but declined to do so. The Republican nomination was won by his second in command, Kim Reynolds. The Democratic side had a more cluttered primary, from which businessman Fred Hubbell emerged victorious. The race was considered Likely R on election day, and Reynolds won handedly, 54% to 44%.

Result: R Hold (R+1)

Kansas:
In Kansas, incumbent Governor Sam Brownback was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. On election day, Brownback was rated the least popular governor in the Country. The Democrats nominated state Senator Laura Kelly. Independent Greg Orman also ran. Republicans picked State Secretary of State Kris Kobach as their nominee. The race was considered only lean R on election day, despite Kansas’ natural republican lean. Democrats and Republicans invested heavily in the race, and in the end, it was the eighth most expensive election of the cycle. Kobach ultimately won over Kelly and Orman, 46% - 31% - 23%.

Result: R Hold (R+1)

Maine:
In Maine, incumbent Governor Paul LePage could not seek a third term in office. Legal troubles around the use of ranked choice voting led to legislators to suspend its use until 2021. Despite the  a “People’s veto” referendum, the law held, meaning Ranked Choice voting was only used in the primaries, not the general election. Mary Mayhew emerged victorious in the Republican primary, and faced Democrat Betsy Sweet and independent Terry Hayes in the general election. Ultimately, despite LePage’s poor approval rating, Mayhew won the general election, 44% to Sweet’s 28% and Hayes’ 20%.

Result:R Hold (R+1)

Maryland:
In Maryland, incumbent Governor Larry Hogan sought re-election to a second term in office. Consistently rated one of the most popular governors in the country, Hogan was considered favored to win the election. Despite this, he faced heavy opposition from former NAACP president Ben Jealous in the general election. Still, the race was considered Likely R on election day, and Hogan emerged victorious, 54% to 45%.

Result:R Hold (R+1)

Massachusetts:
In Massachusetts, incumbent Governor Charlie Baker sought a second term in office. He beat back a primary challenger from Scott Livey, and faced Democrat Bob Massie in the General Election. Baker was considered the nation’s most popular governor on election day, and the race was rated Safe R. He won easily, with 60% of the vote to Massie’s 39%.

Result: R Hold (R+1)

Michigan:
In Michigan, incumbent Governor Rick Snyder was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. State Attorney General Bill Schuette won the republican primary to replace Snyder. On the democratic side, former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer won the primary easily after Abdul El Sayed was disqualified due to residency laws. The general election was considered a toss up, and ultimately, Whitmer prevailed,and won the election 50% to Schuette’s 49%.

Result: D gain


()

Republicans: 18 Seats Called
Democrats: 11 seats called.

Special: 2018 Gubernatorial Elections (Part 3/4)

Minnesota:
In Minnesota, incumbent Governor Mark Dayton declined to seek a third term in office. The democratic primary to succeed him was cluttered, but ultimately U.S. Rep Tim Walz prevailed. The National Republican Party drafted former Governor Tim Pawlenty after the other Republicans struggled with fundraising. Clearing the field, Pawlenty easily won the Republican primary, and the race was considered a toss up on election day. In the end, Pawlenty narrowly prevailed, 48% to 47%.

Result: R Gain (R+1)

Nebraska:
In Nebraska, incumbent Governor Pete Ricketts sought another term. Despite several candidates considering a primary challenger to Ricketts, he faced none. In the general election, the Democrats did not run a candidate, instead supporting Independent State Senator Bob Krist. The election was rated as Likely R, and Rickets won handedly on election day, defeating Krist 57% to 41%

Result: R Hold (R+1)

Nevada:
In Nevada, popular Governor Brian Sandoval was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. Adam Laxalt won the republican primary to replace Sandoval. On the Democratic side, Steve Sisolak emerged as the leader of the pack on the democratic side, and won his parties nomination. The race was considered Likely R, and Laxalt won by a less than expected margin, 52% to 46%.

Result: R Hold (R+1)

New Hampshire:
In New Hampshire, incumbent Governor Chris Sununu sought a second term in office. He faced no opposition in his primary. In the general election, Sununu faced Colin Van Ostern in a rematch of the 2016 race. Sununu defeated Ostern again, 54% to 44%. The race was rated Lean R.

Result: R Hold (R+1)

New Mexico:
In New Mexico, incumbent Governor Susana Martinez was term limited, and could not seek another term. U.S. Representative Steve Pearce won the Republican nomination,  and faced off against fellow Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham. Due to Martinez’s low popularity, and the state’s natural democratic lean, the race was considered Lean D. Grisham pulled off a narrow win, with 52% of the vote to Pearce’s 48%.

Result: D Gain

New York:
Incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo sought a third term in office. Despite talks of a potential primary challenger, Cuomo won re-nomination without serious opposition. He faced Minority leader Brian Kolb in the general election. The race was rated Likely D, and Cuomo prevailed on election night with 56% of the vote to Kolb’s 42%.

Result: D Hold

Ohio:
Incumbent Governor and former Presidential Candidate John Kasich was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. State Attorney General and former Senator Mike DeWine faced no opposition in the Republican primary, after his opponents all withdrew for other races, Mary Taylor, withdrew to run for the U.S. House, Jon Husted became DeWine’s running mate, and Renacci ran for the U.S. Senate. Democrats faced a much more crowded primary, from which Former Congresswoman Betty Sutton emerged victorious. The race remained close throughout the entire contest, and was rated toss up until election day. On election day, DeWine Narrowly prevailed in the closest race of the election cycle, with both candidates winning roughly 49% of the vote. After a recount, DeWine was declared the winner by a margin of 2,000 votes. It was the most expensive election of the cycle.

Result: R Hold

Oklahoma:
In Oklahoma, incumbent Governor Mary Fallin could not seek a third term due to term limits. Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett narrowly defeated Lamb in the Republican primary. He faced Former State Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Despite Fallin’s unpopularity, and Edmondson’s name recognition, the state’s natural republican lean made the race Likely R. Cornett defeated Edmondson 55% to 43%

Result: R Hold

Oregon:
In Oregon, incumbent Governor Kate Brown sought reelection to a full term in office, after winning the governorship in the 2016 Special election. She faced no primary opposition, and went on to face State Rep. Knute Buehler. Despite the state showing some friendliness to Republicans down ballot, Brown was considered favored to win re-election, due to her opponents lack of name recognition. The race was rated likely D, and on election day Brown won a full term, 56% to 43%.

Result: D Hold

()

Wow, not a good midterm for dems.

Thus far, Dems have made a net gain of +1 seat, granted its not over yet.

Special: 2018 Gubernatorial Elections (Part 4/4)

Pennsylvania:
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Governor Tom Wolf sought a second term in office. With a rocky first term, Republicans targeted the race heavily, and the party rallied behind State Senator Scott Wagner after he defeated Paul Mango and State House Speaker Mike Turzai in the primary. Wolf was renominated unopposed. The race was considered a tossup on election day, but in the end, Wagner defeated Wolf, 49% - 48%. This was the third most expensive race of the cycle.

Result: R Gain (R+1)

Rhode Island:
Incumbent Governor Gina Raimondo sought a second term in office. She faced a primary challenger from State Attorney General Peter Kilmartin. Despite a rocky first term, she beat back Kilmartin, 60%-40%. The Republicans rallied around their 2014 nominee, Allan Fung. Due to her low approval ratings, Raimondo was considered a ripe target for Republicans. By election day, the race was rated as a Tossup. She was eventually defeated, carrying 49% of the vote to Fung’s 50%. The moderate party did not nominate any candidates.

Result: R Gain (R+2)

South Carolina:
In South Carolina, incumbent Governor Nikki Haley was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. Fmr. U.S. Senator Jim DeMint won a crowded primary to replace her. The Democrats nominated State Representative James Smith. Despite personal support from President Biden, DeMint easily defeated Smith, 56% to 41%. The race was considered Safe R.

Result:R Hold (R+2)

South Dakota:
In South Dakota, Incumbent Governor Dennis Daugaard was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. The two main republicans who ran to replace him where Congresswoman Kristi Noem and State Attorney General Marty Jackley. Noem ultimately prevailed, narrowly defeating Jackley. In the general election, she faced Democrat Billie Sutton and Independent Mike Huether. Noem prevailed easily, winning 67% of the vote to Suttons 20% and Huether’s 11%.

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Tennessee:
In Tennessee, popular incumbent Bill Haslam was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. The Republican primary was fought between State House Speaker Beth Harwell, and Congresswoman Diane Black, from which the latter emerged victorious. Democrats nominated Mayor of Nashville Karl Dean. Black was considered favored going into the election, and won easily, 59% to 39%. The race was considered Safe to Likely R

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Texas:
In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott sought re-election to a second term in office. He faced no opposition in the Republican Primary. In the general election, he faced Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez. Abbott, considered extremely popular, was considered Safe in his re-election bid. On election day, he won 66% to 30%.

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Vermont:
In Vermont, incumbent Governor Phil Scott sought re-election to another term. He faced no opposition in the primary. In the General election, he faced Sue Minter, his 2016 opponent. Scott, with high approval ratings, was considered Favored to win re-election, and on election day he won 53% to 46%.

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Wisconsin:
In Wisconsin, incumbent Governor Scott Walker, sought reelection to a third full term in office. Like most of his republican colleagues, he faced no serious opposition in the primary. The crowded Democratic primary attracted 18 candidates, from which, State Superintendent Tony Evers emerged victorious. Walker beat back Evers, 52% to 48%. The race was considered a tossup on election day.

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Wyoming:
In Wyoming, Governor Matt Mead was term limited. The Republican primary to replace him was crowded, but State Superintendent Jillian Ann McGarvin Balow emerged from the pack. She faced former State Senate Minority Leader Mary Thorne in the general election, and won easily, 60% to 39%.

Result: R Hold (R+2)

---

Result Summary:
R Gains: AK, CT, MN, RI, and PA
D Gains: IL, MI, NM

()

Following the 2018 Midterms, Democrats hold fourteen Governorships, to the Republican’s 36. This is the weakest the party has been since Reconstruction.

Part 17: March, 2020
Mid March Contests:
Michigan:
Mississippi:
Northern Marianas:

Super Tuesday II:
Florida:
Illinois:
Missouri:
North Carolina:
Ohio:
Alaska:
Hawaii:

Late March Contests:
Idaho:
Utah:
Washington:

---

()

---

Senator Cory Booker: “I’m withdrawing from the race for President”
()
In a surprise announcement, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker announced that he would be suspending his campaign for president, and would be seeking re-election to the United States Senate. His decision to withdraw comes two days before the filing deadline to run. In his withdrawal speech, Booker promised to remain an active voice in the party, and stated that, after lengthy consideration, he believes that the best way to influence the platform of the party would be to withdraw. In his speech, he endorsed Vice President Elizabeth Warren, stating that after talking with each of the candidates, he believes the Vice President to best embody what the party stands for. He did, however, speak praise to each of the other candidates, and stated that he was confident whoever the party nominated would be a fine candidate. Booker’s withdrawal dwindles the field of candidates to three.

FEEL THE JASON!

Can you give us a description of the Biden Administration?

I will, but not until later in the timeline. As a brief teaser, The Democrats hold the senate when Biden takes office, but Republicans retain their house majority, handicapping the Biden administration.

Part 17:March 2020 (2/2)
Mid March Contests
Hawaii:
Alaska:
Idaho:
Michigan:
Mississippi:
Washington DC:

Super Tuesday II:
Florida:
Illinois:
Missouri
Northern Marianas:
North Carolina:
Wisconsin:

Rubio, Humiliated Again
For the second time in his life, Rubio was rejected by his home state, which narrowly favored Nikki Haley over their own senator. As expected, Rubio suspended his campaign, thanking his supporters and encouraging them to continue their involvement in politics. A few days after his withdrawal, Senator Rubio endorsed the Haley Campaign, and publicly encouraged his delegates to back her.

Late March Contests:
Arizona:
Utah:

---

---

()


Part 18: Beginning of the End
Establishment Republicans to Kasich: Get out of the race.
Fmr. Governor John Kasich has found himself short on friends during the last few weeks of the primary campaign. Most of his supporters in congress have jumped ship to the Haley campaign, who seems fated to win the nomination. Even Ohio Senator Rob Portman, who’s office insists he still supports the Buckeye Governor, stated on CNN “I think it would be best if he dropped out.” His campaign finances have also been running thin. Donors who were supporting him to deny Trump the nomination have given up the goat. Even his former Lieutenant Governor, Congresswoman Mary Taylor (R-OH) has noted that Kasich and Trump are both mathematically eliminated from the nomination. RNC chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel stopped short of calling Nikki Haley the presumptive nominee, but noted that its “highly likely” she will be nominated on the first ballot, while also acknowledging that she may not have enough delegates pledged to her to win before the convention.
 
All Eyes on Pence:
As the primary season winds down, the silence of one Senator Mike Pence has become much more noticeable. Trump’s running mate in 2016, Pence passed on his own presidential bid, but pledged to make his voice heard. So far, he’s remained mute on who he would be supporting, even after his senate colleague endorsed Haley. He has strong ties to the Trump campaign, but also worked with Governor Kasich when they served as Governors of neighboring states. However, rumors have swirled around Capitol Hill that Pence is considering backing Haley, concerned about pinning himself to another sinking ship.

---

General Election Polling:

Warren vs Haley
Warren: 42%
Haley: 45%
Other:4%
Undecided: 9%

Warren vs Trump
Warren: 44%
Trump: 41%
Other: 7%
Undecided: 8%

Warren vs Kasich
Warren: 40%
Kasich: 44%
Other: 4%
Undecided: 12%

Harris vs Haley
Harris: 43%
Haley: 44%
Other: 3%
Undecided:10%

Harris vs Trump
Harris:46%
Trump: 39%
Other:6%
Undecided: 9%

Harris vs Kasich
Harris: 42%
Kasich: 45%
Other:6%
Undecided: 7%

Kander vs Haley
Kander: 45%
Haley: 44%
Other: 4%
Undecided:7%

Kander vs Trump
Kander: 47%
Trump:40%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 10%

Kander vs Kasich
Kander: 44%
Kasich: 45%
Other:3%
Undecided:8%

Generic Democrat vs Generic Republican:
Democrat: 43%
Republican: 44%
Other:5%
Undecided: 8%

Polling Map: Average Dem vs Average Republican
()

Convention Locations and Dates
()
Libertarian National Convention: June 8th - June 11th in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Democratic National Convention: June 29th - July 2nd in South Bend, Indiana
Republican National Convention: July 13th - July 16th in San Diego, California
Constitution National Convention: July 20th - July 23rd in Cheyenne, Wyoming.
Green National Convention: August 3rd - August 6th in Boston, Massachusetts

---

April Democratic Contests:

Wisconsin:

New York:

Connecticut:

Delaware:

Maryland:

Pennsylvania:

Rhode Island:

---

()

---

April Republican Contests:

North Dakota:
Delegates selected at an unbound convention backed Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, with 18 Delegates and 10 Delegates respectively

New York:

Connecticut:

Delaware:

Maryland:

Pennsylvania:

Rhode Island:

---

()

---

BREAKING:Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard will seek Democratic Nomination at Convention.

()

The Hawaii congresswoman and short lived presidential candidate announced that she would re-enter the race for President at the Democratic National Convention by seeking the support of unpledged delegates and Super Delegates. She is the first candidate to announce that she will seek the nomination through the convention, which will likely go to multiple ballots.

Lol.....ok Tulsi

Next part is all written and maps made and such, it just needs to be formatted, which will be done tomorrow. Once I get through the conventions, I'm gonna work on replacing the images that went down when HostthenPost died. If anyone wants a particular infobox, either from the 2018 gubernatorial elections, or the primaries, let me know.

Part 19: The Final Countdown

---

Breaking: Senator Pence Endorses Haley days before critical Indiana Primary.
In the days leading up to the Indiana primary, the state’s popular Junior senator has backed frontrunner Nikki Haley over his former running mate Donald Trump. Trump responded over twitter, writing “Backstabbing Pence is an establishment Hack. He cost us 2016! The people of Indiana will vote him out!.”

---

May Democratic Contests:

Indiana:

Guam:

West Virginia:

Kentucky:

Oregon:

---

June Democratic Contests:

Virgin Islands:

Puerto Rico:

Montana:

New Jersey:

New Mexico:

North Dakota:

South Dakota:

DC:

Go Kander! This was an exciting primary race.

Thanks to everyone who has been reading, if you all could answer this quick poll for me, that'd be great:

https://www.strawpoll.me/15125070

Next part will be up tonight, but I think most of you know whats gonna happen.

Part 20: Cracked
Indiana Republican Primary, 2020


Trump, Kasich withdraw. Haley is now the presumptive nominee.
Following her victory in the Indiana Republican, Nikki Haley’s two primary opponents dropped out of the race. Mr. Donald Trump suspended his campaign by initially launching an attack at the establishment of the party for “cheating” him out of the nomination. However, half way through his speech, he pivoted to attacking the Democrats, mostly Warren, Kander, and Harris. By the end of his speech, he offered a lukewarm endorsement to Governor Haley, but an endorsement nonetheless. Kasich withdrew the following day, saying that his path to victory had closed. He endorsed Governor Haley enthusiastically, and stated that the Republican party had made the right choice by rejecting Donald Trump. This triggered a public spat between the two. Trump responded by calling Kasich "dumb" in a tweet, and Kasich shot back on a CNN interview just two weeks later.   

---

Haley Campaign: VP shortlist has three names
The search for Nikki Haley’s running mate has been narrowed to three people.
Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa -- Another woman, she brings military experience and is popular in a critical swing state. Concerns over having two women on the ticket raises worries among Haley’s campaign staff.
Fmr. Governor John Kasich of Ohio -- The former Presidential candidate has high favorables among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, and remains popular in his home state. Still, Haley seem reluctant to add one of her main primary challengers to the ticket. There is also the age concern, and whether Kasich would be able to seek his own term in 2028, if Haley where to win and also win re-election
Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire -- The young, popular Governor brings moderates to the ticket, while also not being too moderate to turn off conservatives nationwide. He also remains popular in a critical swing state. Still his relative lack of experience is cause for concern. It would also require Republicans to replace him on the 2020 ballot.

---

---

Polling Map: Haley vs Generic Dem
()

Next up, the Democratic Convention!

Should be up tomorrow or Saturday.

Awesome! Kander vs. Haley would be so great!

Part 21: Democratic National Convention, 2020

Day One: “Where we came from”

For the first time in what seemed like forever, the Democrats went into the convention without a clear nominee. Warren, Harris, and Kander had competed in all of the primaries, and Gabbard was openly seeking the nomination through unpledged delegates.


Day one opened with DNC chairman Tom Perez formally opening the convention. What followed was a series of speeches and performers, with a central theme of understanding America’s roots. There was also a focus on the War in Iraq and the 2008 recession. In short, the first day of the convention was broadly focused on the time before Obama became president. The notable first day of speakers included Fmr. First Lady Michelle Obama, Senators Kate McGinty and Russ Feingold, Performer Katy Perry, and Fmr. Secretary Hillary Clinton. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer gave the Party’s keynote address, discussing how much progress the Democratic Party has made in the past decade, as well as a personal meeting with a voter from Flint, MI, and how that impacted her. Her speech was well received, and considered the best of the night. 


Day Two: “Where We are Now”

The second day was when the fun began. Vice President Warren was nominated by Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), seconded by Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH). Senator Kander was nominated by Governor Allison Grimes (D-KY), seconded by Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT) and Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH). Senator Harris was nominated by Congresswoman Terri Sewell (D-AL), Seconded by Congresswoman Jackie Speier (D-CA) and Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH). The other speakers, mostly from the activist wing of the party, where all mostly overshadowed by the coming chaos. The exact count was unclear, as superdelegates changed their support, and delegates from withdrawn candidates changed teams, but it was sure that Warren would finish first, with Harris close behind, and Kander in a not-so-distant third.The first ballot, done in its typical grandiose fashion, finished mostly as expected around 7pm.


The second ballot was expedited, taking 47 minutes:


Gabbard had surged in the delegate count, mostly at the expense of Kander and withdrawn candidates. Warren had lost a few delegates, to be expected, but she held her ground and stayed in first. Harris crawled forward, lurching toward surpassing Warren. Fmr. Governor Terry McCauliffe was drafted as an attempt at a compromise candidate when he didn’t outright decline to be nominated. While there wasn’t much time for pundits to analyze the second ballot, one thing was clear: the party was heading away from unity, not towards it.

DNC 2020, Ballot 3:
()

Warren and Kander continued to bleed delegates. Harris made another crawl forward, and seemed poised to pass Warren on the fourth ballot. McAuliffe didn’t do much, with the candidate neither actively campaigning for nor against his nomination. Gabbard continued to corral support among reluctant Kander and Warren delegates. In the brief time between the second and third ballots, Gillibrand expressed her interest to several NY delegates about being nominated, and she had a small surge in the balloting.


With the fourth ballot, Gillibrand and Gabbard both continued to jump up. The Kander campaign seemed to have mostly stopped the bleeding, losing only 10 delegates. Warren had finally falling to second place, with Harris now leading by 36 delegates. Booker’s oftenly repeated declinations caused many to finally give up on the draft movement for the New Jersey Senator.


Warren’s campaign seemed to continue bleeding delegates, although the Kander campaign was beginning to reverse this trend. Harris’s campaign, for all practical matters, seemed to stay at the same place. Gabbard and Gillibrand both made gains, but neither was going anywhere rapidly. McAuliffe continued having minimal impact on the balloting process, losing 6 delegates.

Part 21: Democratic National Convention, 2020 (Part 2)

More of the same in ballot 6. Warren stopped bleeding delegates, and Gabbard and Gillibrand continued to slowly climb. Despite winning the popular vote in the primary, Harris struggled to climb higher in the delegate count. However, the biggest shift would happen between Ballots 6 and 7. Perhaps realizing that it was impossible to win the nomination, Senator Jason Kander withdrew from the balloting, and threw his support behind Warren. His delegates where enough, the seventh ballot determined the nominee:


Following the nomination of Warren, Senator Amy Klobuchar delivered a strong speech to the convention, but following the shocking conclusion to the nomination process, her speech was mostly overlooked. Governor Gavin Newsom also spoke on the second night, enthusiastically backing Warren, and delivering the generic call for unity
Senator Bernie Sanders closed out the night, congratulating Vice President Warren, and attacking presumptive Republican Nominee Nikki Haley. His speech was considered the most notable of the day. All of the speeches of the day focused on the accomplishments of the Biden and Obama administrations, the massive increases in healthcare and employment, the relative increase in global stability. Basically all the generic democrat talking points.

The Warren campaign had already vetted a number of vp candidates, and announcing overnight before the third day was considered the best choice. Still, even after clinching the nomination, Warren was torn between Senators Sherrod Brown and Mark Warner. Her choices where between another staunch Senate liberal, or a more establishment moderate candidate. After consulting with both men, she had her pick:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren announces VP pick: Virginia Senator Mark Warner

---

Day Three: “Where we want to be”

By day three, the excitement had mostly calmed down. Not only was the nomination decided, but many in the party felt defeated. Warren was not the choice of most democrats, but the party was still stuck with her anyway. It wasn’t that Democrats didn’t like Warren, its just that in contrast to the charisma of her primary challengers, and their more youthful energy, she was less inspiring. There was also the issue of her Vice Presidential pick. Many wanted Kamala Harris, who placed second in the primaries and won the popular vote in the nominating contests. Many Kander supporters felt that he deserved the number two spot, since he helped Warren win the nomination. Many also applauded her for “leaving the primaries behind” and picking a neutral party. Still, her strong liberal record appealed to the Democratic base, and that would have to be enough for Democrats if they wanted to win.
Notable Speakers on the third day included South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigeg, Illinois Governor Dan Biss, Fmr. President Barack Obama, and Joe Kennedy. The party was seeming to rally. The three speakers all gave positively received speeches, and Democrats seemed to be heading towards something resembling unity. Senator Warner was nominated by Acclamation, despite some reluctance from more liberal delegates.

---

Day Four: “How we get there.”
The fourth day carried a record of mixed emotion. This wasn’t helped by the fact that most notable speakers where former Presidential candidates. Cuomo, De Blasio, Gillibrand, Booker, Harris, and Kander, all laid out their visions for America’s future. One NBC analyst called it “The first day of the 2024 election." Each speaker endorsed Warren, and pledged to help her and other democrats to win nationwide. Still, that wasn’t enough to stop the image that each candidate was simply gaming their chances at the next cycle.

President Biden also addressed the convention. He praised Warren’s success as a mark of progress for the nation. He closed out his speech, one of the last of his political career, with a message for Democrats nationwide. “When I was growing up, no one could have imagined how far our country would have came. I’m proud of the role I’ve played in that effort. I’m proud of our accomplishments. Despite the opposition, despite the difficulties, we pushed on. And that’s what I want to leave you all with. Keep pushing forward.”


Warren addressed the convention on the final day. Her speech had three goals: Blast Haley, rally the party, and highlight her own record. In general, her speech was well received. She achieved all three goals to some degree of effectiveness. Many pundits felt she spent too much time attacking Haley and highlighting her liberal record. Her speech focused on her staunch liberal ideals, foreshadowing her general election strategy.

At the close of the Democratic Convention, the party was dragging its feet, but still moving towards the general election. The Haley campaign had gotten a head start, but Democrats were determined to catch up.

---

Governor Chris Sununu announced as Haley's running mate week before RNC.

Great posts! I'd be a reluctant Warren supporter, probably- she's the least exciting choice the Dems could've made, probably.

The entire presidential ballot is from the East Coast!

East Coast Beast Coast

FTFY. West Coast Best Coast.

While I'd definitely be a Warren/Warner supporter, it would be pretty cool to see a Lebanese-Cuban-American person (Sununu) like me become Vice President

East Coast gave us Washington, West coast gave us Nixon. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Part 22: Republican National Convention, 2020

By Contrast to the DNC, The Republican Convention was a foregone conclusion. Yes, Haley fell short of an absolute majority, but with the strong support from Rubio and Kasich, Haley was all but guaranteed to win the nomination on the first ballot. Still the prospect of the Republicans first female and first Minority nominee attracted major attention, and record breaking viewership.

Day One:


When Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel, the excitement was electric. After 12 years of Democratic rule, Rockefeller Republicans, Card-Carrying Conservatives, Tea Party Enthusiasts, and everything in between were ready to win. The speakers of the day reflected this. Governor Baker, Senators Pence and Paul, and Governor Gillespie all gave speeches on the first day. But the show stealer came from Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, who delivered the Keynote Address.

Cotton, a rising star of the Republican party, only passed on his own 2020 bid when Donald Trump entered the ring. In the primaries, he was a steadfast supporter of Mr. Trump, and only endorsed Haley once Mr. Trump and Governor Kasich had withdrawn. Still, he was one of the party’s “fresh faces,” and certainly had the ambition to match his popularity.

Cotton’s speech was framed around his idea of true Americanism. He focused on the “Dignity of Work.” He called the approach of Biden Administration “socialist in nature, trying to hold everyone’s hand.” He attacked the “rampant amnesty” of the Biden/Obama administrations, and called it “fundamentally degrading” regular Americans. He stated that the strength of Americans came from American Values, not the values of Europe, or Mexico, or Brazil. He railed against the acceptance of refugees, and tore into the Iran deal. He left no stone unturned. He attacked every piece of the “liberal agenda.” His speech truly emphasised why he was the poster child of the right wing. One CNN commentator called the speech “reactionary and authoritarian.” Still,  those at the Republican convention, and in right wing media, called it one of the best speeches of any convention, ever.

Day Two:


Day Two was uneventful. Haley was nominated by Congresswoman Mia Love (R-UT), and seconded by Senator Tom Scott (R-SC) and Governor Kim Reynolds (R-IA). Donald Trump was nominated by Fmr. Senator Scott Brown (R-MA/NH), and seconded by Congressman Duncan Hunter (R-CA) and Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). Kasich was nominated by Senator Rob Portman, and seconded by Fmr. Governor Rick Snyder (R-MI) and Congresswoman Mary Taylor (R-OH). As expected, Haley won the nomination on the first ballot with around 60% of the delegates.


Notable speakers of the day included Senators Rubio (R-FL) and Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA). Beyond that, Senator Ted Cruz Spoke (R-TX), once again playing the political game by endorsing Haley and feigning human empathy.

Day Three:

During day three, things got somewhat interesting. In between the formalities of nominating Sununu and Haley, other Republicans took time to jab at each other. Notably, Donald Trump and John Kasich.


Kasich addressed the convention first. His speech, mostly directed at the strength of the Republican Party, and attacking Elizabeth Warren, he made a jab at Donald Trump, saying that the Republican party “avoided another 2016 failure.” While his rehearsed speech was only 10 minutes in length, Trump delivered a 20 minute speech, spending most of the extra 10 minutes blaming Kasich for his defeat in 2016. The two once again continued their feud on morning talk shows.

Chris Sununu was nominated by acclamation. In his address to the convention, Sununu highlighted his own record, Haley’s record, and also an ambitious policy agenda that involves cutting taxes, deregulating the economy, and reinvigorating America’s image abroad. Despite being a “rising star” in the party, Sununu mostly just covered the generic Republican talking points. Still, the speech mostly well received. He tied his father and his heritage into the overall theme of the American Dream. Still, his speech served to be little more than a precursor to the next day.

Day Four:

Day Four was the day everyone was waiting for. The notable speakers included Brian Sandoval (R-NV), Congressman Will Hurd (R-TX), Former RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, and of course, Haley herself.

“With great humility, I accept your nomination for President, and I promise you all, we will win!”

With that closing, Haley was officially the 2020 Republican nominee. The first female presumptive nominee of any party. The first Female minority nominee from any major party. The first double minority presidential ticket. The first female vs female Presidential election. 2020 was truly an election that broke many historic norms, and barring a major upheaval, the next president would likely shatter the highest glass ceiling.

Part 24: August, 2020
Maps denote number of campaign stops in each state. Darker colors denote a greater focus.

The general election campaign took off in August of 2020. One side, led by two young minorities, focused their stump speech on those the economy has left behind. The other side, two older white people, focused on the strengths of the status quo. The Republican party’s strategy was not to argue that there hadn’t been economic growth, rather that economic growth hadn’t beyond the select few in states like California, New York, and Massachusetts. The campaign adopted a vaguely populist rhetoric similar to Donald Trump, without his controversy and with a lot more polish. Haley focused her campaign on middle America. Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, etc. Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and other southern swing states were important, but placed on a second tier compared to the Industrial Midwest. Sununu played a more independent role. While Haley toured the midwest, Sununu hit the North East. Pennsylvania (again), New Hampshire and Maine where the key targets, but the occasional appearance in Rural Massachusetts and Connecticut where not out of the question. It wasn’t that the Haley Campaign thought they could make a play at all of these states, MA and CT were safely in the Democratic category. But it created the image of confidence, and that was the Haley/Sununu campaign’s goal. Still, it couldn’t be ignored that the Northeast was opening up to Republicans. All of the region, except Vermont and Massachusetts, had trended towards the Republican party in 2016, and all New England Governors were Republicans. Keeping margins lower in New England would help Haley ensure she doesn’t lose the popular vote, and that was massively important to her personally.


Warren’s campaign, by contrast, didn’t bother trying to “extend” their electoral victory. Biden had won comfortably in 2016, and keeping that map would be enough of a challenge for Warren. Her strategy focused on winning the swing states Biden had carried. Her campaign hit most of the same midwestern states that Haley hit, but also made winning the South a key priority. Most of Warner’s time was spent in North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. Warren hit the midwest, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Her strategy focused on hitting the urban centers in each state. Detroit, Toledo, Columbus, Saint Louis, etc. All of these cities featured at least two stops by the Warren campaign. Warren’s advisors didn’t think she’d win over suburban or rural voters, so for the most part they didn’t try. They left those voters to Warner and other surrogates and down ballot candidates.

The strategy of each campaign drew criticism. Democrats accused Haley’s strategy as divisive, while Warren was often accused of “pandering” while on the campaign trail. August did prove definiative in proving something: The election would be decided in the rust belt. This concerned most within the Democratic party, even if they didn’t show it. The region had been trending R in recent years, and at the statewide level, Republican held complete control of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. Democrats had captured the Governorship in Kentucky, but Republicans maintained control over both chambers in the state house. Warren and Haley where polling even with each other at the start of the month in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, while Warren led in Michigan. At the end of the month, Warren maintained a slight edge in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and that gave her a cushion in the electoral college. The question became whether or not she could hold that lead.

---

Polling, August 2020.

---

Next part will be the 2020 Senate Ratings.

Part 23: Races to Watch: Battle for Control of the US Senate, 2020.
From, Politico.

In 2018, Republicans won a net of five seats, taking control of the senate. Should they win the presidency, Democrats would need to win four seats to flip the chamber. The following are races that are competitive, or could become competitive.

2014 was a Republican wave, with Republicans winning a net of nine seats. Five Democratic incumbents were defeated, and Republicans picked up four other open seats. Democrats will have to win back some of these seats to take control of the chamber.

In 2020, the Democratic party sought to make lighting strike twice. Recognizing that their 2016 victory was due to, in part, the strength of their candidates, the DSCC worked to recruit their top candidates in every race they could find. For the most part, they found success.

---

()

Arizona (Special):
In Arizona, incumbent Republican Jeff DeWit was appointed following the passing of the late Senator John McCain. He is seeking re-election. The Democrats nominated former state Rep Matt Heinz. The race is considered a toss up, and both sides are investing heavily into the race.
 
Colorado:
In Colorado, incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner is seeking re-election to a second term. Democrats have nominated Fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper as their candidate.Gardner’s poor approval ratings, and Colorado’s increasingly Democratic lean, has lead the race to be rated as Lean D.

Georgia:
In Georgia, Incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue is seeking re-election to a second term. His Democratic challenger is State Rep. Scott Holcomb.  Despite Georgia's Republican lean, the state has been trending Democratic in recent years, and was lost narrowly by President Biden in 2016. These two factors have led to the race being considered a tossup.

Iowa:
In Iowa, incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst is seeking re-election to a second term in office. The Democratic nominee is State Senator Robb Hogg. Hogg has performed well on the campaign trail, but Ernst’s fundraising has dwarfed his. The race is rated Likely R.

Kentucky:
In Kentucky, Senator and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is retiring. Fmr. Governor Matt Bevin won the Republican primary to replace McConnell. He is facing Jack Conway in a rematch of the 2015 Gubernatorial election. The race is rated as Lean R.

Maine:
In Maine, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collin is retiring. The Republican nominee is former State Senator Eric Brakey, while the Democrats nominated former State Rep Jared Golden. The race is rated as a toss up. With RCV not implemented until next year, the race will use FPTP.

Minnesota:
In Minnesota, incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith is seeking re-election to a full term in office. She is unopposed in the Democratic Primary. Republicans have nominated their 2018 nominee Karin Housley. The race is rated as Lean D.

Montana:
In Montana, incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines is seeking re-election to a second term in office. His Democratic challenger is popular incumbent Governor Steve Bullock. Bullock’s personal popularity has made this a top Democratic target. Polling indicates a competitive race, and its rated as a tossup.

New Hampshire:
In New Hampshire, incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. The Democratic nominee to replace her is her daughter and City Councilor Stefany Shaheen. The Republican nominee was Fmr. U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte, however she was chosen to replace Sununu as the Gubernatorial nominee. Ayotte was replaced by Fmr. U.S. Senator Scott Brown. The race is rated as a tossup.

North Carolina:
In North Carolina, incumbent Republican Thom Tillis is running for a second term in office. He is facing Democrat and rising star Jeff Jackson in the general election. Polling has the two in a dead heat, and the race is rated as a toss up.

Virginia:
In Virginia, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner is retiring to run for Vice President. The Democratic nominee is Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, while the Republicans have nominated Lt. Governor Jill Vogel. The race is rated as Lean D, given Virginia’s increasingly Democratic Lean in recent years.

West Virginia:
In West Virginia, Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito is seeking re-election to a second term in office. Democrats have nominated former State Senator Richard Ojeda as their candidate. Despite being a solid Republican State athe the presidential level, Ojeda has been polling competitively, and the race is rated Lean R.

---

After posting, the Democratic Nominee in Georgia was changed from Jason Carter to Scott Holcomb because on second thought I think Holcomb is more likely to run than Carter.

100th update woot woot. For those wondering, I plan on restarting Your America, Your Vote this Friday, so stay tuned for that. I also have another side project that should be going up this week or next.

Prediction: I think Matt Heinz would beat Jeff DeWit. DeWit is very, very conservative and Heinz seems like a pretty good campaigner and fundraiser in addition to being pretty mainstream Democrat.

This is excellent, good work.

Part 25: The September Campaign, 2020

Beyond the first debate, the month of September saw both candidates continue their rigorous campaigning. The landscape was shifting daily, as new polling came out each day, some showing Warren leading, some showing Haley leading, some showing statistical ties.

()

The Haley Campaign continued to focus on the Industrial Midwest, much to the ire of national Republicans. She was losing ground elsewhere, especially in Florida, where Warren had opened a small but consistent lead. On top of that, for all the effort Haley was placing in the Rust Belt, Warren had opened up a lead in Ohio and Pennsylvania during the August campaign. Still, Haley’s campaign manager David Bossie and Haley herself had insisted that their strategy would work, and they pointed to polling in Minnesota, Michigan, and especially Wisconsin to support their claim. Haley made the most stops in Ohio, followed by Michigan, and Wisconsin. She also made numerous appearances in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Sununu continued to tour the North East, focusing on Maine and New Hampshire especially, as well as Pennsylvania. He also began to make stops in Virginia and North Carolina, although like with Haley, these where secondary priorities. Beyond these states, Haley made a few visits to Georgia, Florida, and Nevada, but those where not her key targets

()

The Warren campaign shifted gears. While the Great Lakes and Midwest where still focuses of the Campaign, she changed her strategy. Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina where her new top targets. The great lakes where taking a back seat to these southern swing states. Two of these states, Georgia and North Carolina also had competitive senate races that Warren would need to win to take back a Senate majority. She also appeared alongside down ballot candidates in Arizona, New Mexico, and Iowa. While Warren didn’t totally ignore the Northeast, it didn’t receive the same focus that it did from the Haley Campaign. Warner focused mainly on Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania. He also appeared alongside Warren in Iowa, Nevada, and Georgia, as well as other states.

The first debate would also be a chance to change the electoral landscape, but going into the first debate, Haley was chipping away at Warren’s lead electorally, but maintained a narrow popular vote lead. Still, there was plenty of time for things to change...

---

Polling:

Part 26: The First Presidential Debate, 2020.

()

Hofstra University, New York. The first 2020 presidential debate was held between the top two contenders. It was scheduled for 90 minutes of uninterrupted television broadcasting. Haley and Warren both had something to prove. It would be the most watched debate of the season, and it was, for many of the millions of undecided voters, the deciding moment of the campaign. Pundits stressed the need for both parties to put up their strongest front.

The first debate covered a variety of topics. Six 15 minute segments on healthcare, foreign policy and terrorism, race and policing, veterans issues, the economy, and immigration.

---

Excerpt from The Los Angeles Times, “Round by Round, Haley and Warren Trade Blows”. Published September 2020.

Final thoughts:

[Cathleen] Decker (Warren Won) -- Both candidates needed a knockout, but only Warren got it. While Haley threw a strong right here and there, she was clearly beaten. Warren was better prepared, and confronted nearly every question head on. Haley dodged the more controversial questions on policing and race relations. She dodged questions about her foreign policy credentials. She dodged questions on healthcare. In short, Haley ran away from most of the actual debate. When she did stand her ground and confront the questioning, she did well at laying out her plans and policies, but these instances where so few and far between, it doesn’t do much for her overall performance.

[David] Lauter (Warren Won) -- Its tough to say that this debate did anything for either candidate. They mostly stuck to their talking points for the most part. No one, at this point, should be surprised that Warren favors Universal Healthcare, or that Haley favors cutting taxes. Where the candidates really have a chance to shine is their presentation, and Warren narrowly wins on this. Some dodginess is expected of the candidates, Haley took that to a whole new level. It made her look unprepared and unready. Not traits Americans want in presidents.


[Doyle] McManus (Tie) -- In the end, no candidate is perfect, and this debate showed it. While Haley dodged many questions, Warren’s answers lacked substance. Both candidates stuck to their talking points as expected. Haley did well emphasising her core message of “rebuilding.” Rebuilding America’s roads and infrastructure, rebuilding the tax code, rebuilding America’s image abroad, etc. Warren did well emphasising her theme of “Progress.” Progress towards universal health care, progress towards economic equality, progress towards world peace, etc. In the end, like others have said, it comes down to style more so than substance. On this, its hard to say Warren, who explains policy like a professor giving a college lecture, truly had more style than the more youthful and engaging Haley. But Haley came across as underprepared, as if she wasn’t aware of what questions would be asked of her, or that she wasn’t aware of what arguments Warren was gonna make.

---

Who won the First Presidential Debate?

---

Go Warren!

Part 27: The Final Stretch Pt. 1: October

()

Vice Presidential Debate: Less Exciting Than Watching Paint Dry.
Excerpt from The New York Times, published October 2020

Last night, millions of Americans watched some of the least exciting television in history, The Vice Presidential debate. Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH) defended allegations that he is unqualified to be Vice President. Senator Warner defended the 12 years of Democratic rule. After a weak performance by Haley in the first debate, Sununu needed a strong win to reverse the trend. While most pundits and polling agree that Sununu won the debate, it's hard to call it a strong win when most voters watching at home where asleep by the end of the debate...

---

Warren and Haley Raise Eyebrows on the Campaign Trail.
Excerpt from The New York Times, published October 2020

...The Warren Campaign has raised some eyebrows of their own. While Haley has continued to vigorously pursue the Midwest as her path to the White House, Elizabeth Warren seems to be making a play for the Sunbelt, a traditionally Republican area. 73% of all of her campaign stops in the past three weeks have been in Southern swing states, such as Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. Some democrats are concerned about this approach. Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH) accused Warren of ignoring “Middle America” and the “working class folk” in the midwest. Still, Warren has some allies. Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX) stated in an interview on CBS that “[Warren] has been polling competitively in Georgia and Arizona. She’s up in North Carolina and Florida. She knows what she’s doing. This notion that anyone is getting ignored by the Vice President is simply wrong.” Haley’s focus on the midwest has raised eyebrows in her own party, but it seems to be working. One Republican organizer in Minnesota told Politico that energy for Haley was high, saying “We’re feeling a win here. Democrats have taken this state for granted and they’ll be upset come November.”

---

Excerpt from the Washington Post,Haley declared winner of Second Presidential debate as Warren falls ill.
Excerpt from the Washington Post, published October 2020.

Update: A spokesman for the Warren campaign has confirmed that Vice President Warren has been struggling with the flu while on the campaign trail.

Governor Nikki Haley is having a good night. After a defeat in the First Presidential debate, Haley has been stuck trying to make up ground. It seems after tonight’s Town Hall debate that she’s finally caught up. In tonight’s Town Hall debate, both candidates were asked face-to-face with voters, answering questions from the audience on issues such as Veterans Health, Energy Policy, Gun Control, and more. While there wasn’t any particular answers that surprised anyone, what did surprise many was how out of it Vice President Warren seemed. On three occasions, she asked the audience member to repeat their question. She had several instances where she noticeably paused to think. Overall, it was a reversal from her performance at the first debate, where she was constantly on point. When she was answer questions, she often felt disconnected from what she was saying, and very robotic in her performance. This, and her repeated coughing, have led many to suspect that she was sick before the debate. Regardless, Haley has benefited from a more engaging speaking style in the past, and this is especially true in a town hall format….

---

Breaking: Leaked Emails show Warren staff promised Booker and Perez ‘deepest thanks’ for their support.
Excerpt from CNN, published October 2020.

()

The Warren Campaign has just hit another snare. The day leading up to the third debate, Wikileaks published 1,400 emails between staffers working for the DNC, the Booker Campaign, and the Warren Campaign, showing an active attempt to deny Harris and Kander the nominations, and to swing the convention to Warren. In return, the Warren campaign offered their “deepest thanks” and “sincerest gratitude” for their help. Many are calling foul play, and accusing Warren, Booker, and Perez of corruption. Vice President Warren has personally denied any knowledge of the emails in question, and has repeatedly stated that Senator Booker was not offered anything in exchange for his support. More on this story as it develops.

I was going to say "not again", but then I realized this hasn't happened yet in this timeline.

Oh, my. Haley 2020 it is, I guess.

Part 28: The Final Stretch Part 2: The last days and Result of Dixville Notch, 2020

Corruption allegations plague Warren at final presidential debate. Haley declared winner.
Excerpt from The Washington Post, published October 2020

“As the presidential election season draws to a close, Haley and Warren faced off for the final time as Americans march towards their time honored tradition. Yesterday, news broke that Senator Booker and DNC chairman Tom Perez where allegedly offered favors in exchange for their support of Vice President Warren as she was attempting to gain the Democratic nomination. Warren was bombarded to questions related to the email leaks. Moderator Chris Wallace was criticized for the questions, but responded by claiming “Its what Americans want to hear about, its what the candidate should be asked about.”  Meanwhile, Haley faced questions about credentials to lead, particularly the lack of foreign policy experience, but with the email leaks plaguing Warren’s campaign, its hard to say many Americans cared about the foreign policy issues....

---

Final polling before the 2020 election (Averages from October and November)


Results of Dixville Notch:

---

General election Results start tomorrow. Thank you to all who have left feedback and comments, the build up will hopefully be worth it!

D:

Part 29: United States Presidential Election, 2020

---

---

Blitzer: “Good Evening, I’m Wolf Blitzer, you are watching CNN’s election coverage, here at the top of the hour, polls have closed in seven states, and CNN can now make a few projections:

In the state of Indiana, we can project that Governor  Haley will win the state and its 11 electoral votes. She will also carry Kentucky and its 8 electoral votes, as well as her home state of South Carolina with its 9 electoral votes.  On the Democratic side, we can call the state of Vermont for Vice President Elizabeth Warren, giving her three electoral votes. No projection at this time in either Virginia or Georgia, where polls have also closed. We are also beginning to get results from New Hampshire and Florida, where Vice President Warren has taken an early lead.

In the battle for control of the senate, CNN can project that Republicans will hold South Carolina, with Matt Moore defeating democratic challenger Vincent Shaheen. In Kentucky, Georgia, Virginia, and New Hampshire, there is no projection to make.

For the Governorships, at this time CNN can project that in Indiana, Eric Holcomb will win a second term over Former U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly. No projection in the state of Vermont nor New Hampshire."

Looking pretty good for Haley so far!

I knew Haley would win the moment Warren got the nomination and picked Warner, of all people, for Veep.

Electoral Vote:
Warren/Warner -- 146
Haley/Sununu -- 93


Senate: REPUBLICAN CONTROL
Republicans -- 49 Seats
Democrats -- 39 Seats
12 Seats Uncalled

Governorships:
Republicans -- 31
Democrats -- 11
8  Seats Uncalled

Update soon? Looking forward to seeing how it turns out.

Ive been having computer troubles and cant post from my phone. Ill try and borrow a computer and put an update out tonight, but most likely it wont be done until tommorow night or monday.

Because of said computer troubles, the next few parts won't be formatting heavy, I'm sorry if the appearance isn't up to par.

---

Stefany Shaheen in a thrilling race against herself.

Fixed, Thanks!

Not good margins for Haley in Virginia, this race will be closer than expected.

---

---

Excerpt from Champion for the People by Elizabeth Warren

Around the time Florida was called, things were looking bleak. I was watching the results come in with my family and Mark’s family. At this point, it was all but decided that the Republicans would keep control of Congress, even if things turned around for our campaign, Republicans would control the levers of power in Washington. Over the course of the next hour, things would only get worse.

I've been working on a term paper for the past few days, which is why updates have been slow. It will be turned in at midnight, so tomorrow updates will resume at normal speed.

212-210 with CA, WA out would mean a Warren win was practically guaranteed. Did you mean 110?

Maybe. Thanks for the catch.

Part 30: Shattered

---

Madam President:
November 3rd, 2020

With the call in Pennsylvania, Vice President Elizabeth Warren conceded the Presidential Race to fmr. South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who has become the nation's first female President-elect. In her concession speech, Warren said that she was proud that “Across this nation, every little girl, regardless of skin color, will see that they too can be president.”

In her victory speech, Haley congratulated Warren on a hard fought campaign, and spoke to Warren’s own accomplishments throughout her career. She also promised to be a uniting figure among Americans, and pledged to be “a President for all.”

---

And that's the 2020 Presidential election. I'm not 100% satisfied with how this turned out, as a lot of you noticed their where many sloppy mistakes. It was a good learning experience of how to do this better in 2024 and 2028. Next few updates will cover some housekeeping stuff with regards to the Senate, Governors, etc. We will cover the first major piece of the Biden Administration,then we move into transitional stuff before the Biden Administration ends.

---

2020 Summary, pt. 1
Notable Races:

In Alabama, Mayor Tommy Battle held the open seat for Republicans against Democrat Jason Fisher, 69.7% to 28.0%

Result: R Hold

In Arizona, no winner has been declared yet, but incumbent Republican Jeff DeWit leads Democratic challenger Matt Heinz 49.8 to 49.7%

Result: Recount Pending

In Colorado, incumbent Republican Cory Gardner faced a difficult re-election battle, due to low approval ratings. He was defeated for Re-election by fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper, 48.8% to 50.7%

Result: D Gain

In Georgia, incumbent Republican David Perdue faced a tougher than expected re-election battle, challenged by Democratic State Rep Scott Holcomb. Perdue ultimately prevailed, 53.0% to 46.9%.

Result: R Hold

In Iowa, Incumbent Joni Ernst easily won re-election over State Senator Rob Hogg, 58.7% to 40.1%.

Result: R Hold

In Kansas, fmr. Lt. Governor Jeff Colyer won the open seat for the Republicans against Chad Taylor, 59.4% to 40.6%

Result: R Hold

In Kentucky, longtime Republican Incumbent and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell decided to (finally) retire. The Republican primary to replace him was cluttered, but won by Fmr. Governor Matt Bevin. Democrats nominated fmr. State Attorney General Jack Conway. In a rematch of the 2015 Gubernatorial election, Bevin defeated Conway with relative ease.

Result: R Hold

In Maine, incumbent Republican Susan Collins retired. Fmr. State Senator Eric Barkey won the Republican Nomination to replace her. Democrats nominated fmr. State Rep Jared Golden. Currently, neither has been declared the winner. Golden leads 50.0% to  49.9%, pending a recount.

Result: Recount Pending

In Massachusetts, incumbent Democrat Ed Markey retired. The Democrats nominated State Attorney General Maura Healey to replace him. Republicans nominated State Rep. Ron Beaty as their candidate. Healey defeated Beauty with ease, winning 65% of the vote and carrying every county. Beaty has sued claiming voter fraud.

Result: D Hold

In Michigan, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters was unopposed in his renomination. He faced Macomb County Public Works Commissioner Candice Miller in the general election. He defeated Miller with 51% of the vote, even as the Presidential race was more competitive.

Result: D Hold

In Minnesota, incumbent Tina Smith sought a full term in office. After narrowly winning the 2018 special election, Smith was considered a prime target for Republicans. Despite this, Smith defeated Republican challenger Richard Painter with 50% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Montana, incumbent Republican Steve Daines ran for re-election to a second term. He was challenged by outgoing Governor Steve Bullock. The race attracted national attention due to Bullock’s popularity, despite of the State’s republican lean at the Presidential level. No winner has been declared yet, but Bullock leads Daines 49.6% to 48.9%.

Result: Recount Pending

In New Hampshire, incumbent Jeanne Shaheen retired. Her Daughter, and City Councilor Stefany Shaheen was the democratic nominee to replace her. Fmr. U.S Senator Scott Brown was the Republican nominee to oppose Shaheen.Shaheen narrowly won, 49.7% to 48.5%. Brown did not pursue a recount.

Result: D Hold.

In North Carolina, incumbent Thom Tillis sought reelection to a second term. He was challenged by state Senator Jeff Jackson. After election night, Jackson leads with 311 votes, with both candidates having 49.5% of the vote. A recount is pending.

Result: Recount Pending

In South Carolina, incumbent Lindsey Graham retired rather than seek another term in office. The Republican nominee to replace him was former state party leader Matt Moore. Democrats nominated Fmr. State Senator Vincent Sheheen as their candidate. Moore won easily, with 57% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In Virginia, incumbent Mark Warner unsuccessfully ran as the Democrats Vice Presidential candidate. The Democrats nominated Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney as their candidate to replace Warner. Republicans nominated Lt. Governor Jill Vogel as their candidate. Stoney dispatched Vogel easier than expected, winning 52% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In West Virginia, incumbent Shelley Moore Capito sought a second term in office. Initially, she was considered to be safe in her seat, but democratic challenger Richard Ojeda preformed stronger than expected. Still, in the end Capito won by a substantial margin, taking 54% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

Flashback: The 2016 Elections

Presidential:



Democratic Pickups in the Senate:
Illinois
Missouri
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Flashback: 2017 and 2018 Senate Elections

---

In Massachusetts, the 2017 special election was held in April of 2017 to replace now-vice President Elizabeth Warren. The Democratic primary was a three way contest between Congressman Joe Kennedy, Congressman Seth Moulton, and Congressman Steve Lynch. In the end, Kennedy prevailed easily, taking 55% of the primary vote. On the Republican side, appointed Senator Kirsten LePore did not run for the special election. In the Primary, Fmr. Governor Bill Weld was defeated by State Rep. Geoff Diehl, 49% to 51%. The general election was considered to be solidly democratic. In the end, Kennedy won with 63% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

---

2018 Key Race Summary:

In Arizona, incumbent Jeff Flake sought re-election to a second term. After narrowly beating Fmr. Sheriff Joe Arpaio and fmr. State Senator Kelli Ward in the Republican primary, Flake was considered extremely vulnerable. After lobbying from the national party, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema entered the race and became the obvious democratic front runner. The race was rated as a toss up, and became one of the most expensive races of the cycle. In the end, Sinema narrowly prevailed over the unpopular incumbent, with 49.1% of the vote.

Result: D Gain

In California, incumbent Dianne Feinstein sought another term in office. Her main challenger emerged as the more liberal Democrat Kevin De-Leon. Due to California’s top two primary system, the two faced each other in the general election. Strapped for cash and struggling with name recognition, Feinstein won over her challenger with 60% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Florida, incumbent Bill Nelson decided to retire, rather than seek another term. The Democrats nominated fmr. Rep. Patrick Murphy, their 2016 candidate, for the open seat. After Governor Rick Scott declined to run, Republicans nominated outgoing U.S. rep Tom Rooney. The race was considered a Tossup, although Murphy led most polls pre-election by 1-2%. On election day, Rooney scored an upset for the Republican party, winning with 49% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Indiana, incumbent Joe Donnelly sought a second term in office. He was challenged by fmr. Governor Mike Pence, who was persuaded to enter to prevent a messy GOP primary. The election was considered lean R, although polling had the two evenly match leading up to election day. In the end, Pence defeated the incumbent with 50% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Massachusetts, incumbent Senator Joe Kennedy sought reelection to a second term in office. He was again challenged by Congressman Seth Moulton in the Democratic Primary. Geoff Diehl was against the Republican nominee, beating 6 other minor candidates. Fmr. Governor Bill Weld ran as an independent. Kennedy beat Moulton 65% to 35%, and went on to win the general election with 62% of the vote to Weld’s 29% to Diehl's 9%.

Result: D Hold

In the Minnesota Special election, appointed incumbent Democrat sought re-election to fill the remainder of Al Franken’s term. She was unchallenged in the Democratic Primary. She faced Republican Karin Housley in the general election. The race was considered competitive, but Tina Smith ultimately prevailed with 50% of the vote. 

Result: D Hold

In the Mississippi Special election, appointed incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith ran for re-election to the remainder of Thad Cochran’s term. She was challenged by fellow Republicans State Senator Chris McDaniel and former Governor Haley Barbour in the jungle primary. She was also challenged by Democrat Mike Espy and Jason Shelton as well. McDaniel and Hyde-Smith made it into the runoff, with Espy taking a narrow third place (33% to 22% to 21%). In the runoff, McDaniel ultimately prevailed, winning 53% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In Missouri, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill decided to retire rather than seek another term in office. Democrats nominated County Executive Mike Sanders to replace her. Republicans nominated Josh Hawley. Despite fundraising concerns, Hawley was considered the heavy favorite, and won in November with 58% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Montana, incumbent Democrat Jon Tester ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unchallenged by any serious opposition in the Democratic Primary. In the general election, he faced Congressman Ryan Zinke in the general election. The race was considered a tossup, but ultimately, Tester was defeated narrowly by Zinke, with both candidates taking 50% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Nevada, embattled incumbent Republican Dean Heller was convinced by national Republicans to retire. To replace him, Republicans nominated outgoing Governor Brian Sandoval. The Democrats nominated Businessman Stephen Cloobeck as their candidate, after most of their top tier candidates declined to run. Sandoval prevailed easily, taking 57% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In New Jersey, embattled Incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez sought reelection to a third term. Despite speculation, he was neither forced out nor subject to a major primary challenge. On the Republican side, Republican Tom Kean Jr. emerged from a field of 5 other candidates. The General election was considered a toss up, with the two being relatively even in the polls. In the end, Kean won narrowly, taking 49% of the vote.

Result: R Gain

In North Dakota, incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp sought a second term in office. Her Republican challenger was Congressman Kevin Cramer. The race was considered a tossup, but with a strong Republican wave nationwide, Heitkamp was narrowly defeated, 50% to 49%.

Result: R Gain

In Ohio, incumbent democrat Sherrod Brown sought a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Republicans initially rallied around Josh Mandel, their 2012 candidate. However, when he withdrew due to family concerns, republicans became locked in a battle between Congressman Jim Renacci and investment banker Michael Gibbons. Renacci prevailed in the end. The race was considered a toss up, but Brown managed to win a third term with 52% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Pennsylvania, incumbent Bob Casey Jr. sought a third term in office. The Republican candidate to challenge him was Lou Barletta. The race was considered to have a slight Democratic tilt, as Casey’s approval ratings remained high throughout 2018. Casey prevailed in the end, carrying 51% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Tennessee, incumbent Bob Corker sought a third term in office. He face nominal opposition from Democrat James Mackler. Corker was considered safe throughout the race, and on election day, he won with 65% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In Texas, incumbent Ted Cruz sought re-election to a second term. He faced nominal opposition in the Republican primary, and in the general election, he faced Congressman Beto O’Rouke. The race was considered Likely R leading up to election, and despite a strong performance from O'Rourke, Cruz prevailed, 54% to 44%.

Result: R Hold

 In Utah, incumbent Republican and Senate President Pro Tempore Orrin Hatched retired. To replace him, fmr. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee. Democrats nominated Jenny Wilson, a Salt Lake City Councilor. Romney won overwhelmingly, with 80% of the vote

Result: R Hold

In West Virginia, incumbent Joe Manchin retired. The Democrats struggled to find a candidate to replace him. Booth Goodwin and Jeff Kessler became the leading contenders, however both declined to run. Ultimately, in a field of few candidates, Rick Thompson defeated Paula Jean Swearengin to win the nomination. Republicans faced a messy primary between Congressman Evan Jenkins, State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, and Coal Tycoon Don Blankenship. With a divided establishment vote between Jenkins and Morrissey, Blankenship was able to eek out a narrow win in the primary, winning with 38% of the vote. The General election was considered a tossup, and Blankenship ultimately won with 52% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

Current Political Party Strength

Presidential Election by Margin, 2020

Closest States:

• Michigan -- .3%
• Minnesota -- .4%
• Nevada -- 1.1%
• Pennsylvania -- 1.2%
• Arizona -- 1.6%

---

Partisan Control of Upper Chamber of State Legislatures


*Oregon is tied, and Nebraska has a unicameral legislature.

---

Partisan Control of Upper Chamber of State Legislatures:


*Oregon is tied.

---

Partisan Control of State Governorships:


*A Recount will determine the Winner of the Montana Governor Race.

---

State Government Trifectas:

---

Current House Margin:
245 - 190

---

One more "Flashback" part before we get to the Haley Transition. It will cover Healthcare in the Biden Administration.

Flashback: Healthcare in the Biden Administration

Taking the oath of office, Biden found himself stuck in the middle on healthcare. Not many were satisfied was satisfied with the current state of the ACA. His running mate, a progressive, personally favored a single payer plan (although she would never have contradicted the President) , as did many progressives nationwide. Conservatives wanted the ACA gutted and burned. Public opinion polls showed a lack of consensus. Pretty much any move by the Biden administration would be met with opposition from a significant portion of the population and of Congress. Still the Democrats in the Senate where able to defeat the Republican house’s three attempts to repeal Obamacare.

A conflict arose in late 2017, when Senator Sanders proposed a Single Payer “Medicare for All” bill. The bill sparked fierce Republican opposition in both chambers, and lacked total support among Democrats. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota became a Democratic opponent of the bill. Senator Ross (D-NC) also announced that she would oppose the bill in its current state due to “funding concerns”. With Two democrats against it, the bill was heading for the grave. Tester (D-MT), McCaskill (D-MO), and Manchin (D-WV) found themselves at the senate or the Debate. After much public speculation, Tester announced that he would support it (possibly due to persuasion from Sanders and Majority Leader Schumer. McCaskill was next. Her fellow Senator Kander (D-MO) played a key role in convincing her to support it. When Biden signaled to the general public that he would sign it if it landed on his desk,s he signed on to support it, shortly after Tester. Manchin, with his retirement already planned, found himself one of the most powerful members of the Senate. He shocked the political world when he announced he would support it, as it broke from his traditional moderate record. Democrats had 50 votes, with Warren’s tie breaking powers, Single Payer Healthcare passed the Senate. Of course, the Republican House voted it down, ensuring it would never make the President’s desk. But the optics where clear. Democrats had hoped this would show that they were serious about Healthcare, but instead, it backfired. Republicans used it to justify their “big government is bad” rhetoric. Paul Ryan Appeared on CNN, NBC, FOX, and any news station that would give him 15 minutes to talk about how this is an example of harmful Democratic Deficit spending.

With the Single Payer bill dead on arrival, the Senate went back to the drawing board. A bipartisan health care bill, proposed by Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Patty Murray (D-WA), was formed. It sought to fix some of the key issues with the ACA. But still, this wasn’t enough, Conservatives in the house held enough votes to deny it a majority. When asked if he would whip votes in support of the bill, Ryan said “that’s not really my job, and it’s not my place to tell my colleagues how to vote.” And so, the Tea Party and Hardliner Conservatives were also able to kill the Bipartisan healthcare bill, especially when Majority Whip Steve Scalise openly came out against it. It failed, even with bipartisan support.

Once the Republicans took the Senate in 2018, it was impossible for the Democrats to get a healthcare plan through. McConnell and Ryan sent an ACA repeal to Biden’s desk three more times, and all three times it was vetoed. The House and Senate overrides failed, and healthcare would be stuck in limbo for another 4 years.

Part 31: Transition, 2020 (pt. 1)
Barkey Concedes to Golden, Democrats gain Maine Senate Seat.
November 5th, 2020 -- PORTLAND, ME

With the Results unlikely to change, Eric Barkey announced he was conceding the race to Democrat Jared Golden over Twitter. The Thursday Morning announcement formalizes Golden as Maine’s new Senator-elect. The Lewiston Democrat won by a margin of 1,500 votes, and will replace retiring incumbent Susan Collins, a moderate Republican. The result gives the Democrats their second senate gain.

Both sides prepare for legal battle in North Carolina.

November 8th, 2020 -- Raleigh, NC

With ballots still being counted (and recounted), the winner of the North Carolina Senate seat remains unclear. Currently, incumbent Thom Tillis leads by 89 votes against Democratic challenger Jeff Jackson. A lengthy recount process comes next, and with that will spurn numerous legal challenges, regardless of the results.

Heinz Concedes to DeWit, Republicans hold onto the Arizona Senate seat.

November 10th, 2020 -- Phoenix, Arizona.

Its official, incumbent Republican Jeff DeWit will defeat Democratic challenger Matt Heinz. Heinz admitted defeat as provisional, absentee, and military ballots appear to widen the gap between him and DeWit. This officially gives the Republicans 51 Senate seats as races in North Carolina and Montana remain uncalled.

Haley announces first cabinet picks: Senator Corker to be Secretary of State, Governor Baker to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.

November 11th, 2020 -- Washington DC.

In her second press conference as President-elect, Nikki Haley announced her first two cabinet picks: Tennessee Senator Bob Corker for Secretary of State, and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker for Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Corker has made a name for himself as a frequent critic of President Biden, especially on foreign policy. He’s been a leading opposition figure on the Iran Deal, continued food aid to North Korea, and has blamed the President for the resurgence of ISIS in early 2019.  However, the two have sometimes found themselves on the same side. When President Biden declaed a “redline” in Syria, and followed up with limited air strikes against the Regime, Corker stated that it “was probably the right move.” Still, his more hawkish stances have drawn criticism. Senator Sanders (I-VT) stated that he plans to vote no on Corker’s nomination. Even from Republicans, Corker isn’t guaranteed a warm welcome. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) called him “ a Hawk, plain and simple” on national TV. The move to nominate Corker signals to the word that Haley intends to be assertive with the US stance in the world, and indicates the potential for a much bolder foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Governor Baker sends a different signal. A known moderate, and occasional defender of the Affordable Care Act, Governor Baker served 10 years as a healthcare executive. “There just isn’t much bad to say about the guy,” Senator Joe Kennedy (D-MA), who has worked closely with Baker on the opioid epidemic. If confirmed, Baker has said his top priority would be combating the opioid epidemic nationwide, and stated that he would “absolutely oppose” any efforts to “dismantle” the ACA unless he was shown a suitable alternative. Its unclear how the more conservative members of the Senate will react to this appointment.

Democrats square off for control of the House Caucus.

November 15th, 2020 -- Washington DC

With longtime leader Nancy Pelosi calling it quits, Democrats are scrambling to replace her. The four candidates who have emerged have been travelling the country, meeting with voters and fellow Representatives, trying to drum up support. Representative Tim Ryan (D-OH) has touted his ability to reach out to voters across the political spectrum, and stated that he can “refocus the party” after their “brutal losses.” Joaquin Castro (D-TX), Chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, has stated that he’s a leader for a “new Generation” of Democrats. Cedric Richmond (D-LA), chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, has entered the fray in a similar position to Castro. The final candidate, Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA), has stated that its time to take the party in a bold new direction. “None of the other candidates have done this.” Khanna’s jump as a two term Congressman, recently elected to his third term, has raised eyebrows. Polling Democrats nationwide has led to mixed results. 38% say they have no preference. 22% haven’t heard of any of the candidates in the race. 13% support Ryan, 12% support Richmond, 10% support Castro, and 5% say they support Khanna.

You never showed the election results for the West Coast, polls closed at 10:00 PM ET

Kander 2024!!!!!!!!!!!!

What happened in Montana?

All the West Coast states where "Safe" for Warren or Haley. I didn't feel the need to take up space with it. Its in a spreadsheet, so if there are any states that people want to know the margin in I can post that.
For the West Coast:

California: 59.6% vs 36.4%
Oregon: 51.0% vs 45.4%
Washington: 52.6% vs 44.8%
Hawaii: 64.1% vs 32.6%
Alaska:53.7% vs 44.1%


He's gotta win re-election first....


Close margins for both the Governor and Senate races prompted a recount, the result of which you'll find out below.

---

---

Part 32: Transition, 2020 (pt.2)

Baker meets conservative opposition in the Senate.

November 18th, 2020 -- Boston, MA


In a joint interview on CNN, Governor and Secretary-designate Charlie Baker spared with Republican Senator Tom Cotton over the role of Planned Parenthood and the Affordable Care Act. The two traded blows back and forth for over an hour, reaching little agreement on anything. In the end, Cotton pledged to oppose Baker, to which the Governor responded with “that is your right as a Senator.”

Cotton isn’t the only one. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) and Senator Jeff DeWit (R-AZ) Released a joint statement “expressing concern” over Baker’s support of Planned Parenthood. Sources inside DC tell that “at least 10 Republicans plan to vote against Baker.”

But all is not over for Baker. Senator Joe Kennedy (D-MA) and Senator-elect Maura Healey (D-MA) both stated that the would vote for Baker, issuing their own joint statement where they explained that “Baker is the right person to head up the fight against the Opioid Epidemic.”  Other Democrats, such as Jason Kander (D-MO) have also signaled support for Baker. With support from most Republicans and most Democrats, Baker would have an easy time passing the Senate. Still, it is likely that many more Republicans will have hesitations about the Massachusetts Governor.

Republicans Select Cornyn to lead them in the Senate.

November 20th, 2020 -- Dallas, TX

Texas’ Senior Senator John Cornyn has won the leadership race to be the next Senate Majority Leader. Incumbent Whip, John Thune, will stay on as the Majority whip at Cornyn’s urging. Cornyn’s primary opponent in the leadership contest, Wyoming Senator John Barrasso, conceded defeat, promising to work with the new majority leader to unite the caucus. Cornyn will take office in January of 2021.

Haley expands cabinet picks

November 26th, 2020 -- Washington DC

Over the past few days, President Elect Haley has announced several additional cabinet positions.


First for her Chief of Staff, she will appoint Catherine Templeton, who ran her early primary campaign and served as one of her deputy campaign managers. Her Campaign manager and former chairman of Citizens United David Bossie will serve as a Counselor and Special Advisor to the President. For her Communications Director, she will appoint head of RNC Communications Ryan Mahoney.


For heads of federal departments, Haley has announced four new nominees. To head up the justice department, former Congressman Trey Gowdy will be appointed to serve as Attorney General. The former assistant US Attorney, former South Carolina Solicitor, and former head of the House Oversight Committee has promised to make Government corruption among his chief priorities leading the Justice Department.


To lead the Defense Department, outgoing Congresswoman Martha McSally, who made a play at McCain’s seat before being defeated in the Primary by incumbent Senator DeWit. The Arizona Congresswoman was a Colonel in the United States Air Force before joining Congress, and gained national notoriety when she became the first female fighter pilot in the US Military, and she became the first female Commander of a USAF fighter squadron. 

For the Housing Department, County Executive Rob Astorino of New York will head up that federal agency. For the Interior Department, former Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin will take the reigns as Halley's pick.

Kander, Harris lead early 2024 Primary polling.

November 28th, 2020 -- San Francisco, CA


Although Haley hasn’t taken her oath of office yet, Democrats are already preparing to take her on in 2024. A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows  a divided field. 12 Democrats were included in the poll, at the top where two familiar faces. California Senator Kamala Harris, who was the runner up to Vice President Warren in the 2020 primary, leads the field with 12% of the vote. Right behind her is the third place 2020 Candidate, Missouri Senator Jason Kander, who carries 10% of the vote. Beyond those top two, no candidate has double digit support. Full Results below:

• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 10%
• Sen. Joe Kennedy -- 7%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 6%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 5%
• Gov. Andrew Cuomo -- 3%
• Rep Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Gov. Allison L. Grimes  -- 3%
• Gov. Dan Biss -- 2%
• Mayor Bill De Blasio -- 2%
• Sen. Kyrsten Sinema -- 2%
• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 42%

---

Other November 2020 Headlines:

Tom for DNC !!!!!

Part 33: Transition, 2020 (pt. 3)

Joaquin Castro wins leadership vote on third ballot.

December 2nd, 2020 -- San Antonio, TX


San Antonio Democrat Joaquin Castro has won the race to lead the Democratic Caucus in the wake of Nancy Pelosi’s retirement. In his first public address as Leader-elect, Castro promised to be a uniting figure in the party, which has faced some internal strife in the wake of the 2020 primaries.

Castro beat out three other Democrats. California Congressman Ro Khanna, Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, and Louisiana Congressman Cedric Richmond.

Democratic House Leader, First Ballot:

Democratic House Leader, Second Ballot:

Democratic House Leader, Third Ballot


Joaquin Castro will be formally sworn in as House Leader January 3rd, 2021.

Court orders end to North Carolina Recounts as Tillis Leads with 186 votes. Jackson concedes.

December 10th, 2020 -- Raleigh, NC.


Thom Tillis has won re-election by the narrowest margin in North Carolina History.  AFter the state’s highest Court declared an end to the recount effort, Thom Tillis (Rep.) leads with less than 200 votes. Jackson, who’s only options where to concede or appeal to the United States Supreme Court, announced that he will not appeal further, and will end the legal battle. He gave a formal concession speech, in which he thanked his supporters, and explained his reasoning for conceding. He didn’t, however, once mention Senator Tillis by name. Jackson insisted that this would not be the end of his political career.


Haley’s latest announcement run into trouble.

December 15th, 2020 -- Washington DC.


Haley kicked off the day yesterday with another slew of Announcements. One of them, however, has ran into some problems in the Senate. Former Congressman Evan Jenkins of West Virginia has been announced as Haley’s pick to lead the energy department. Democrats reacted swiftly to the news. “I’m not sure he’s the best person to create our energy policy,” said Senator Jason Kander (D-MO) in an interview with CNN. Similar sentiments have been echoed by Senators Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Tim Kaine (D-VA). But Jenkins nomination has been complicated by Senator Don Blankenship (R-WV). In an interview with Fox, Blankenship said he was undecided, but also added that he was leaning towards voting against Jenkins because “I just don’t like the guy.” Senator Tom Kean (R-NJ) has also announced his intention to vote against Jenkins, stating Jenkins stance on coal and climate change should disqualify him.

---

Other December Headlines:
”

Danica for Lt Gov!!

New Update should be out within the next few days, until then, here is a little fluff piece with some polling:

Morning Consultant's The 10 Most Popular Governor's in America, January 2021.

1. Kay Ivey (R-AL): 67% Approve, 23% Disapprove
2. Larry Hogan (R-MD): 65% Approve, 25% Disapprove
3. Phil Scott (R-VT): 63% Approve, 20% Disapprove
4. Beau Biden (D-DE): 63% Approve, 22% Disapprove
5. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR): 61% Approve, 24% Disapprove
6. Charlie Baker (R-MA): 60% Approve, 24% Disapprove
7. Erin Stewart (R-CT): 60% Approve, 25% Disapprove
8. Dan Biss (D-IL): 58% Approve, 27% Disapprove
9. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): 56% Approve, 27% Disapprove
10. Greg Abbott (R-TX): 55% Approve, 31% Disapprove

Part 34: Madam President

Nikki Haley Takes the Oath of Office, lays out ambitious agenda.


January 20th, 2021 -- Washington DC

Having made history with her election, Haley seeks to make her presidency a transformative one. In her inaugural address, she laid out three key goals for her first 100 days in Office. First, she promised a comprehensive infrastructure package to put America back to work and fix America’s dilapidated infrastructure. Second, she set out to solve the opioid crisis by increasing police and DEA funding to crack down on drug suppliers. Third, she promised to restore America’s standing abroad by cracking down on Iran, Syria, and eliminating ISIS. She also spoke about the historic nature of the 2020 election, and promised to carry on that historic change to become a transformative President.

Haley Approval Rating:

Approve: 62%
Disapprove: 24%

Other January 2021 Headlines:

January 4th: Corker and Paul spar in committee hearing.
January 5th: Rhee announced as pick for Secretary of Education
January 9th: Kelly Thomasson declares bid for Lt. Governor in Virginia
January 10th: Biden Farewell Address: “No Regrets”  as President prepares to leave office with 50% approval ratings.  
January 17th: Jack Ciattarelli formally declares bid for New Jersey Governor
January 18th: Former Governor Terry Mcauliffe declares bid for Virginia Governor, shakes up race.
January 28th: Jill Vogel declares Gubernatorial bid, Stewart leads primary.
January 28th: Vogel declares Gubernatorial bid, endorses Frank Wagner for Lt. Governor.

---

The Haley Administration:

Vice President: Chris Sununu
Chief of Staff: Catherine Templeton
Counselor to the President: David Bossie
Secretary of State: Bob Corker (96-2)
Secretary of the Treasury: Rosario Marin (59-39)
Secretary of Defense: Martha McSally (91-8)
Attorney General: Trey Gowdy (84-14)
Secretary of the Interior: Mary Fallin (56 - 43)
Secretary of Commerce: Meg Whitman (68-31)
Secretary of Labor: Pam Bondi (55 - 44)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Charlie Baker (87-12)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Rob Astorino (76-23)
Secretary of Transportation: Kevin Faulconer (90-9)
Secretary of Energy: Evan Jenkins (51-50)
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee (55-44)
Secretary of Veterans’ Affairs: Scott Brown (78-21)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Mike McCaul (90-9)
EPA Administrator: Tim Fox (57-42)
UN Ambassador: Joe Heck (64-35)

Poor department of interior :P Also, this is great.

Finals+Work+Life has been burying me. Expect an update within the next week, but don't know exactly when.

This isn't the update I was talking about, but here is a list of all the current U.S. Senators. They are listed with the Senior Senator first, followed by the junior senator.

52R-48D

Alabama:

• Richard Shelby
• Luther Strange

Alaska:

• Lisa Murkowski
• Dan Sullivan

Arizona:

• Kyrsten Sinema
• Jeff DeWitt

Arkansas:

• John Boozman
• Tom Cotton

California:

• Dianne Feinstein
• Kamala Harris

Colorado:

• Michael Bennet
• John Hickenlooper

Connecticut:

• Richard Blumenthal
• Chris Murphy

Delaware:

• Tom Carper
• Chris Coons

Florida:

• Marco Rubio
• Tom Rooney

Georgia:

• Johnny Isakson
• David Perdue

Hawaii:

• Brian Schatz
• Mazie Hirono

Idaho:

• Mike Crapo
• Jim Risch

Illinois:

• Tammy Duckworth
• Napoleon Harris

Indiana:

• Todd Young
• Mike Pence

Iowa:

• Chuck Grassley
• Joni Ernst

Kansas:

• Jerry Moran
• Jeff Coyler

Kentucky:

• Rand Paul
• Matt Bevin

Louisiana:

• Richard Cassidy
• John N Kennedy

Maine:

• Angus King
• Jared Golden

Maryland:

• Ben Cardin
• Chris Van Hollen

Massachusetts:

• Joe Kennedy
• Maura Healey

Michigan:

• Debbie Stabbenow
• Gary Peters

Minnesota:

• Amy Klobuchar
• Tina Smith

Mississippi

• Roger Wicker
• Chris McDaniel

Missouri:

• Jason Kander
• Josh Hawley

Montana:

• Ryan Zinke
• Steve Bullock

Nebraska:

• Deb Fischer
• Ben Sasse

Nevada:

• Catherine Cortez Masto
• Brian Sandoval

New Hampshire:

• Maggie Hassan
• Stefany Shaheen

New Jersey:

• Cory Booker
• Tom Kean Jr.

New Mexico:

• Tom Udall
• Martin Heinrich

New York:

• Chuck Schumer
• Kirsten Gillibrand

North Carolina:

• Thom Tillis
• Deborah Ross

North Dakota:

• John Hoeven
• Kevin Cramer

Ohio:

• Sherrod Brown
• Rob Portman

Oklahoma:

• James Lankford
• J.C. Watts

Oregon:

• Ron Wyden
• Jeff Merkley

Pennsylvania:

• Bob Casey Jr.
• Kate McGinty

Rhode Island:

• Jack Reed
• Sheldon Whitehouse

South Carolina

• Tim Scott
• Matt Moore

South Dakota:

• John Thune
• Mike Rounds

Tennessee

• Marsha Blackburn
• Steve Fincher

Texas

• John Cornyn
• Ted Cruz

Utah:

• Mike Lee
• Mitt Romney

Vermont:

• Patrick Leahy
• Bernie Sanders

Virginia:

• Tim Kaine
• Levar Stoney

Washington:

• Patty Murray
• Maria Cantwell

West Virginia:

• Shelly Moore Capito
• Don Blankenship

Wisconsin:

• Russ Feingold
• Rebecca Kleefisch

Wyoming

• Mike Enzi
• John Barrasso

Er...[/list]

Part 35: First 100 Days

Republicans tackle infrastructure.

February 8th, 2021

The first item on Haley’s agenda is passing a massive infrastructure package. Haley’s package, totaling 500 Billion USD in total, would seek to match City and State funding for various infrastructure projects, hoping to give struggling communities a better chance at revitalizing themselves. This is just one component of the infrastructure package, but is the main piece. It also includes 25 Billion allocated to grants to local communities with the specific purpose of modernizing power grids. The bill has obtained bipartisan support, but has also attracted criticism from Deficit Hawks. Senators Rand Paul (R-KY), John Kennedy (R-LA), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Steve Fincher (R-TN) have all come out against the bill. A significant number of liberals have also come out against the bill. Senator and former Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris (D-CA) said that the bill “practically guarantees cuts to medicare and medicaid.”  Senator Jason Kander (D-MO) voiced similar concerns, but spoke positive on several aspects of the bill, being sure to add “I won’t vote for it until we see some idea of where this money is coming from.”  DC insiders say the bill is likely to pass the house easily, but caution that the bipartisan group of senators may be able to stall the bill.

Democrats look forward.

February 23rd, 2023

After 5 ballots, Democrats have found their new Party chair. Secretary Jack Markell of Delaware defeated Jason Rae on the final ballot after incumbent Tom Perez withdrew on the third ballot. Markell has pledged to focus primarily on reuniting the party, and has promised to “rebuild” the party from the ground up. Markell’s victory has been met with a large, collective “meh” from most Democrats.He is the least controversial and least exciting candidate for the chairmanship, and his victory represents a desire to play it safe among national democrats.

Other Headlines:

She's gonna run :P
Also, curious that the Haley administration is so protectionist. I guess one of the only economic issues where I side with most Republicans is gone too, lol.

Part 36: Spring - Summer 2021

Middle East Plan: Bomb Everything


May 29th, 2021

President Haley’s foreign policy can be boiled down to two words: Bomb’s Away. Led by Secretaries Corker and McSally, Haley has taken an aggressive foreign policy stance in the Middle East. To combat ISIS, Secretary Corker purposed amping up airstrikes as an alternative to boots on the ground. Still, the Haley administration has left the possibility to increasing ground forces from 3,000 to 6,000 if the Air Campaign should fail.

The increases in bombings has drawn the ire of Human Rights groups the world over. Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) has cautioned that more bombings might worsen the situation.  Even some Republicans aren’t fully on board. Rand Paul (R-KY) has found himself a frequent critic of Corker and Haley, and said the decision to increase Air Strikes is a “hasty move that opens American’s up to danger”. Secretary Corker responded to these concerns in a press briefing, stating that he is working closely with the Department of Defense and other federal agencies to ensure that the strikes are conducted in the safest, most strategic manner possible to minimize civilian casualties.

Virginia Gubernatorial election favors Democrats after primaries.

June 15, 2021.

After the Tuesday primary, Democrats have emerged the stronger party in the upcoming Virginia Gubernatorial election. Fmr. State Attorney General Mark Herring has won the Democratic nomination with 42% of the vote, while the Democratic Primary for the State’s second position was won by State Delegate Danica Roem, who prevailed narrowly with 50.2% of the vote. Attorney Justin Fairfax was unopposed for the Democratic nomination for Attorney General.

On the Republican side, Corey Stewart, a Prince William County Supervisor defeated Lt. Governor Jill Vogel, 56% to 43%. The primary was messy, and characterized as an Establishment vs Anti-Establishment battle by national media. Stewart’s crushing win is the result of an increasingly conservative Statewide Republican party, as Stewart constantly accused his opponent as being “too soft” on Democrats and regularly challenged her conservative credentials. Stewarts win can also be attributed to strong support from former Trump allies such as his 2020 campaign manager Steve Bannon. For the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General positions, Frank Wagner and John Adams where both uncontested for their respective primaries.

Polling for the general election shows Herring with a consistent lead statewide of anywhere between 49 and 56%, and an aggregate result of 51%. Stewart claims many of the polls have been rigged against him to discourage his supporters from donating, but evidence doesn’t support this claim. No other candidates have entered the general election.

Full results from the primaries below:

(Maps will be added when tiny pic stops being down.)

County Supervisor Corey Stewart -- 55.7%
Lt. Governor Jill Vogel -- 44.3%

(Maps will be added when tiny pic stops being down.)

Fmr. Attorney General Mark Herring -- 41.8%
Fmr. Governor Terry Mcauliffe -- 30.2%
Fmr. Congressman Tom Perriello -- 14.9%
Fmr. Lt. Governor Ralph Northam -- 13.1%


NYC Democratic Primary Results:
Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. defeated Public Advocate Letitia James and City Comptroller Scott Stringer in the mayoral primary 47% to 32% to 21%.
Fmr. State Senator Dan Squadron won the nomination for Public Advocate unopposed.
City Councilman Ritchie Torres defeated fellow Councilman Andrew Cohen 55% to 44% for the nomination for City Comptroller.

NYC Republican Primary Results:
Lawyer Michael O'Reilly won the nomination over perennial candidate Rocky de La Fuente with 59% of the vote.
Juan Carlos Polanco won the Public Advocate nomination unopposed.
Michel J. Faulkner won the nomination for Comptroller unopposed.

Haley: “Opioid Addiction is the most serious public health crisis since AIDs.” Sununu to chair bipartisan Opioid Committee.


July 19th, 2021

In a press conference today, President Nikki Haley personally stated that her administration will step up the fight against the Opioid epidemic with the creation of a Bipartisan Committee to craft a formal policy to fight against the epidemic. Led by Vice President Sununu, the Committee will consist of 13 total members, 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats, that will interview Law Enforcement and Medical professionals, as well as Municipal and City-level politicians before drafting a formal policy recommendation to give to the president. The creation of the committee represents an effort of the Haley administration to reach out to Democrats on one of the nation’s most pressing issues.

13 Members in total:
Chairman: Vice President Chris Sununu (Rep.)
Secretary of Health and Human Services Charlie Baker (Rep.)
Attorney General Trey Gowdy (Rep.)
Chief of Staff Catherine Templeton (Rep.)
Florida Governor Adam Putnam (Rep.)
Pennsylvania Governor Scott Wagner (Rep.)
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine (Rep.)
Nevada Governor Adam Laxalt (Rep.)
Washington Governor Jay Inslee (Dem.)
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (Dem.)
Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards (Dem.)
Kentucky Governor Allison Grimes (Dem.)
Missouri Governor Nicole Galloway (Dem.)

---

Haley Approval Ratings (August 2021)
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 40%
Unsure: 7%

Phil Murphy Approval Ratings (August 2021)
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 46%
Unsure: 10%

Ed Gillespie (Retiring) Approval Rating (August 2021)
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 45%
Unsure: 12%

Bill De Blasio Approval Rating (August 2021)
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%
Unsure: 6%

New Jersey Gubernatorial Polling:
Phil Murphy: 46%
Jack Ciattarelli: 42%
Other: 2%
Unsure: 10%

Virginia Gubernatorial Polling:
Mark Herring -- 52%
Cory Stewart -- 42%
Other -- 6%

NYC Mayoral Race Polling:
Diaz (Dem/Working Families Alliance) --  55%
O'Reilly (Republican/Conservative/Reform Alliance) -- 33%
Other -- 4%

Texas 10th Congressional District Special Election Polling (September):
Stacy Hock -- 50%
Mike Sigiel -- 44%

House Generic Ballot:
Republican -- 44%
Democratic -- 43%
Undecided/Other -- 13%

Other Headlines:

This is a bit of a Fluff piece. I couldn't find a spot to put it on the timeline that I liked, so its going here as it's own separate thing. Putting this up now because I lost the county map for VA gov 2021.

---

---

The 2024 election may be three years out, but its already become on of the biggest topics of speculation among pundits across the nation. As Democrats gear up for the 2022 midterms, behind the scene, the 2024 players are already gaming their chances, forming their teams, and working to build up their name recognition. Below, we have compiled and rated a list of 24 potential democratic candidates.

Before we begin, here are a few honorable mentions of people who didn’t make the cut: Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, Massachusetts Senator Maura Healey, Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, Arizona Senator Kirsten Sinema, and Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards. With that out of the way, let’s go on to our list!

24. Levar Stoney

The junior Senator from Virginia and former Mayor of Richmond has maintained a relatively low profile since joining the senate earlier this year. However, his initial election made national waves as he became the second African American to win statewide office in Virginia, and joined the ranks as one of the four currently serving African Americans in the senate. In his political career, he has been an ally of the Democratic establishment. He was personally recruited for the Senate race by Chuck Schumer, and proved to be one of the stronger democratic fundraisers last year.  Still, in such a wide open field, the young senator has done little to stand out, and currently doesn’t seem to be preparing to run.

23. Joaquin Castro

The recently minted House Minority Leader had big shoes to fill going into his new job, and thus far has been filling them well. Often overshadowed by his twin brother, Joaquin Castro’s new position has given him new found national attention, which naturally brings with it speculation about his political future. In recent months, Castro has been something of a unifier among Democrats, something his predecessor and many other democrats have been lacking in recent years. However, his brother seems much more keen on running, and its very unlikely that they would run against each other, meaning one of their ambitions will have to yield to the other.

22. Stefany Shaheen

Another freshman Senator, Shaheen comes off the heels of a hard fought victory against the political tides of the state. The only Democrat to win Statewide in New Hampshire last year, Shaheen has handled the national spotlight with grace. Since entering the Senate, she has frequently aligned herself with the Sanders-Feingold wing of the party, a contrast from her mother, who was also her predecessor in the Senate. But the memory of Maggie Hassan’s mess of a presidential campaign may still deter her from running herself, and right now Shaheen seems content to stay where she is, although there is still plenty of time for that to change.

21. Bill de Blasio

Speaking of messy campaigns, we come to the outgoing Mayor of New York City Bill De Blasio. While de Blasio has won each of his Citywide elections with ease, his presidential campaign never really took off the ground. Some of that, maybe even most of that, has to do with the candidate himself, but a large chunk has to do with the way his campaign itself. Still, de Blasio has been firm in his stance that he isn’t considering another presidential bid, he may change his tune once he is formally out of office.

20. Seth Moulton

The former Massachusetts Congressman has made plenty of enemies in his political career. One of the more vocally anti-establishment Democrats since leaving office in 2019, Moulton has made it part of his brand to be an outsider candidate. Although this brash attitude endears him with his supporters, it has hurt him among his fellow democrats. Since withdrawing from the 2020 presidential election, Moulton has traveled the country recruiting veterans to run for local political offices, in what some see as a move to build up a network of supporters. Still, Moulton’s position on this list is not related to his shot at winning the nomination, but it more based on the fact that he is likely going to run.

19. Steve Bullock

The Governor-turned-Senator of Montana, Steve Bullock has a potential that most Democrats on this list lack, in that he has won elected office in a red state multiple times. Bullock hasn’t been afraid to take liberal stances on various issues. He is a strong defender of the ACA, he is a proponent of Net Neutrality, and he has led the charge on defending the EPA from Republican cuts. Still, there are a few issues that hold him back. First, he lacks the national profile that others on this list have. Second, he isn’t always in line with the Democratic base, especially on guns (although his stances have changed since he has joined the Senate). Third, Montana makes for a poor fundraising base to start a presidential campaign on. But his personal brand represents something new and interesting for the Democrats, especially when compared with Elizabeth Warren.

TIE: 18 and 17. Sherrod Brown and Russ Feingold

These two are tied because their strengths and weaknesses are basically the same. Both sitting US senators have had lengthy political careers, marked with wins (and loses) in competitive elections. This serves as both a strength and weakness. 2020 showed that on both sides, voters have a desire for fresh faces. Jason Kander and Kamala Harris’ respective campaigns showed that this desire is especially prevalent on the Democratic side. Brown and Feingold are both anything but new faces. Neither, especially Brown, seem likely to run, as Brown faces either re-election or retirement in 2024 and Feingold is expected to face a competitive re-election battle. But on the other side of the coin, Brown and especially Feingold have become leaders of the Democratic party post-Biden. Either one of them could be fearsome candidates, should they choose to run.

16. John Hickenlooper

Hickenlooper can be said to be in a similar situation to Steve Bullock. A popular Governor-turned-Senator, Hickenlooper had several missteps in the 2020 campaign that, when combined with the competitive field, ultimately doomed him. While his position is mostly the same as Bullock, the one thing that places him above Bullock is his ambition. Hickenlooper has shown interest in the office, and has been making the usually candidate moves including the expected trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. He could potentially be a strong candidate if he learns from his mistakes in 2020, but he lacks the wow factor that other candidates higher on this list have.

15. Joe Kennedy

It was obvious that he would be on this list. The proverbial “Crown Prince” of the Democratic party, Kennedy comes from an obvious and well known political pedigree. His grand uncles and grandfather are well known liberal icons, and Kennedy has been known in the national scene since his victory to replace Elizabeth Warren in the senate. He has a strong personal charisma that can’t be understated, and is well connected within the party. Pair this with a (mostly) progressive voting record and you have strong candidate. His detractors have often referred to him as fake, an empty suit, and  “the Democratic Marco Rubio”. He has missed more votes than a majority of Senators, especially a majority of fellow Democrats. Still, the prospect of another Kennedy in the White House has many excited.

14. Dan Biss

The miracle worker from Illinois, he won in back to back upsets to become Governor.  First, defeating two self funding millionaires in the primary, and then another self funding Billionaire incumbent in the general, Biss was able to buck national trends to become one of the few Democratic gains in 2018’s gubernatorial elections. Since taking office, he has governed as a progressive democrat, and has maintained high approval ratings throughout his time in office. But Biss lacks a real national profile. He is not popular enough to make national headlines, nor is he marred in controversy. Few people outside of his home state know who he is, which would hold him back in any presidential bid.

13. Tulsi Gabbard

The Hawaii Congresswoman is both well known and seems inclined to run, giving her a step up over many of the others on the list. However, she often makes herself a target. She met with Assad, she entered the 2020 election at the Convention, she was slow to endorse Elizabeth Warren after the convention, and she met with Assad. That last one is mentioned twice because of how much criticism she received over it. Her positions on foreign policy lead her to regular clashes with fellow Democrats. Still, she has branded herself as an outsider, a progressive, and an underdog, and she brings with her a dedicated following that would certainly support her making another shot at the White House.


12. Julian Castro

The other Castro brother, Julian served as HUD Secretary under Presidents Obama and Biden, and is extremely well connected to the Democratic Establishment. He appealed to younger voters and Hispanics during his short lived 2020 bid. And despite doing poorly in the polls, his fundraising was nothing to scoff at. He certainly has the potential to be a strong contender, although his inexperience definitely held him back, and the fact that Iowa and New Hampshire, critical to a successful presidential bid, are largely white and older, he would have difficulties getting his campaign bid off the ground.

11. Jared Polis

Polis is a candidate with strong potential. Having won narrowly in 2018, Polis staved off the Red Wave in a swing state, something few other democrats where able to accomplish. Since winning office, Polis has enjoyed high approval ratings and has governed more liberally than his predecessor. He's an unknown nationwide, which hurts his potential candidacy, but if enough effort can be put into averting that, then Polis could certainly prove to be a strong candidate.

10. Amy Klobuchar
 
Amy Klobuchar has to be one of the Democrats looking at the 2020 results and wondering “what if I ran?” She passed on a 2020 presidential bid, and instead became a frequent surrogate for Vice President Warren. Had she entered, Klobuchar would have been a serious contender, maybe even have won. Still, what if’s don’t help now, and Klobuchar seems to be at least weighing her odds at a 2024 bid. The only thing holding her back from being higher is the fact that she has also already declared her intention to seek re-election. The legality of her seeking both offices at once is questionable, and the fact that she is up for re-election at all puts her in an awkward position.

9. Gretchen Whitmer

The first term Michigan Governor is an odd choice to appear this high on the list. But she drew national attention with the Keynote at the 2020 DNC. She has also maintained high approval ratings in her home state. She has a level of appeal among each of the different wings of the Democratic Party, and the Midwest is a region that the Democrats have been struggling in. In short, se seems to have everything going for her. But often times, candidates who appear to have everything going for them usually fall apart quick. That’s a curse she would need to break.

8. Gavin Newsom

A bit of an obvious choice, the California Governor benefits from a strong fundraising base and popularity in the delegate heavy state of California. He has proven to be a strong fundraiser as well. Governor of California may be a bit of an obvious candidate, but that isn’t inherently a weakness. With California now part of the Super Tuesday contests, Newsom would have early access to a large pool of delegates early in the nomination contests. Still, his past affairs may come back to bite him, as well as the ambitions of another California politician….

7. Chris Murphy

The Connecticut Senator has made himself known as a staunch advocate for Gun Control, on more than one occasion. Like Amy Klobuchar, he is probably among the many Democrats wondering what would have happened if he ran in 2020. Outside of Gun issues, he is a progressive leaning Democrat, especially in recent years. He has also been one of the more social media savvy Democrats. The combination of a liberal record, his youth and appeal to younger voters, and the fact that he is a more of a fresh face are all strong positives.   But like Klobuchar, he will have to weigh a run against a bid for re-election. Connecticut law allows him to seek two offices at once, but that might not be the best thing for his career.

6. Roy Cooper

The North Carolina Governor has often found himself battling his state legislature for control of the state, but that hasn’t hurt his approvals at home. With a 56% approval rating, the swing state Governor would certainly be a strong candidate in any election. He represents a more moderate, pragmatic type of Democrat, and if Russ Feingold could be said to be the leader of the “progressive wing,” Roy Cooper is certainly the leader of the moderate wing. Unlike others on this list, Cooper won’t have to juggle re-election with a presidential bid because he’s term limited anyway. In some ways, he has become one of the most prominent faces in the fight against Gerrymandering nationwide, and has occasionally found himself in the national spotlight. But as the Democratic base becomes more liberal, Cooper may find himself left behind by the party at large, weighing him down on this list.

5. Beau Biden

Entering the top 5, we have Delaware Governor Beau Biden. There is little to say about Biden that hasn’t been said about his father. He is a candidate so obvious to continue the Biden era policies. Like Cooper, he will be term limited in 2024, so there won’t be much for him to lose if he wants to make the plunge and run . Also like Cooper, his approval ratings have been high throughout his tenure. Currently, he is rated as the most popular Democratic Governor nationwide, and the third most popular overall. 62% of Delaware voters approve of him. He would certainly enter any primary contest with his father’s endorsement, and could very easily become a favorite candidate if he jumped in. In his own right, he has a governing record as a staunch liberal with a pragmatic streak, one who has earned praise among Progressives, Liberals, and Moderates alike. It’s easy to see why he cracks the top 5 of this list.

4.  Cory Booker

Once referred to as the second Obama, Cory Booker really needs no introduction. He is a charismatic, young(ish), African American, with a record as a liberal voice in the Senate. His ties to Wall Street hurt him in 2020, but he has taken steps to rebrand himself as a progressive champion. He has made civil rights and criminal justice reform pet issues of his, and while the ties to Wall Street are an issue for many, it can’t be denied that he had some of the strongest fundraising in 2020. Booker’s candidacy failed because he never fully committed to running. He kept his foot in the door in regards to his Senate seat a big longer than he should have if he wanted to seriously run. But this won’t hold him back in 2024. The other, obvious hurdle that he would have to overcome is the email scandal of 2020. Booker has faced accusations of dirty politics before, but this was to a whole different level. While he insists that his withdrawal had no deal attached to it, it hasn’t stopped people from speculating that he knew more than he let on. Its hard to imagine that this will still be an issue come 2024, but its still worth keeping in mind.

3. Kirsten Gillibrand

If Cory Booker is Obama 2.0, then Gillibrand is Hillary Clinton 2.0. In 2020, Gillibrand won an upset victory in the New Hampshire primary over the former Governor and Senator Maggie Hassan, then promptly fizzled out. Her potential as a candidate is still there, although its unclear if she will run given that her Senate Seat will by up in 24. First elected as a blue dog, Gillibrand has made herself a progressive hero in recent years, especially on Women’s issues. When fellow Senator Al Franken was accused of sexual assault, she was the first to call for his resignation, much to the frustration of her colleagues, even if they eventually came around to the idea. If she could replicate her New Hampshire victory again, she could very easily win the nomination.

2. Jason Kander

The boy wonder from Missouri, Kander made national headlines with a senate ad back in 2016, then found himself in the spotlight again when he defeated incumbent Roy Blunt, then again when he almost won the Iowa Caucus against the better funded, better known Vice President. From there, Kander finished a strong third place in the nominating contests, and played kingmaker at the convention. He has a brand of personal popularity in his home state, and although his approval ratings took a hit during his presidential bid, he maintains a 53% approval rating in an otherwise Republican state. Kander is no Joe Manchin either. He has been a staunch liberal during his time in the Senate. The young, charismatic veteran could be just what the Democratic party needs. But first, he has to win re-election against a strong competitor. And even then, he might not be in the strongest position to run right after his re-election contest. Even then, he isn’t a sure primary winner.

1. Kamala Harris

The obvious pick for the top of the list is last year’s runner up. Kamala Harris is set to coast to re-election in 2022, and from there has a powerful springboard to seek the Nomination. She already ran once, and is still a well known name nationwide. Like Booker and Gillibrand, she has drawn comparisons to Obama and Clinton. Polling indicates that she would enter the primaries as the leading candidate, especially if Kander was to stay out of the race. But she can’t be put at the top of this list without stating the obvious. The 2024 contest is truly going to be her race to lose. Its gonna be up to her to fend off the competition, and she didn’t perform that well in the first two contests last time she ran. Either way, she will certainly be a force to reckon with in 2024.

Part 37: Fall 2021

Republicans hold Congressional Seat in Texas with relative ease.

September 12th, 2021

In a relatively easy win, Republicans have held Secretary McCaul’s seat in Congress by a 7 point margin. The result is nothing more than an “as expected” for both sides. The district voted for Republican Nikki Haley by 12 points, meaning there was a 5 point swing towards the Democrats.

Texas 10th Congressional District Special Election, 2021

Stacy Hock (R) -- 53.2%
Mike Sigiel (D) -- 46.0%

Senator Dianne Feinstein announces resignations over health concerns.

October 25th, 2021


California’s Senior Senator Dianne Feinstein has announced her early retirement, saying she will step down the first of November citing her ongoing struggle with Heart Disease.

The announcement was largely expected, as Senator Feinstein’s ongoing health struggles have become more and more publicly known and the number of votes she has missed has increased dramatically over the past few months. In a written statement, Feinstein expressed her deep gratitude for the years of support California has given her, and she promised to find other ways to serve as she struggles with disease.

 Her announced departure has thrown the California political scene into a frenzy. Speculation has already swirled about replacements. Governor Gavin Newsom will play a critical role of appointing Senator Feinstein’s replacement, but that won’t stop others from running for the seat.

“An open seat is truly something special,” said Democratic Party Chairman Eric Bauman. The race to replace Feinstein is expected to be crowded, but Bauman identified who he considers to be the three strongest candidates: Attorney General Xavier Becerra, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, and former State Senator Kevin De Leon. No one has yet declared themselves a candidate, but Leon stated he is “seriously considering running.”

2021 Election Results Diaz and Herring win with ease, while Murphy squeaks by on a narrow win.

November 2nd, 2021

Virginia Gubernatorial:

NJ Gubernatorial:

NYC Mayoral:

---

Other Headlines:

September 7th: Democrats have fundraising advantage ahead of 2022 midterms.
September 15th: Steve Kerrigan declares bid for Massachusetts Governor, as long term rep Steve Lynch announces retirement.
September 23rd: Stacey Abrams declares second bid for Georgia Governor.
October 9th: Health Scare for West Virginia Governor Jim Justice forces him to resign. Special election for Governor will be held in 2022
October 12th: Larry Hogan most popular Governor in the Country, Jim DeMint least popular.
October 15th: Bernie Sanders still the most popular Senator nationwide, Lisa Murkowski least popular amongst constituents.
October 22nd: Missouri Secretary of State Ashcroft will challenge Senator Jason Kander in 2022
November 1st: Hilda Solis takes office as CA Senator. Feinstein draws bipartisan applause in farewell address.
November 3rd: Democrats take control of VA House of Delegates in historic win. Danica Roem becomes first Transgender statewide elected official.
November 9th: Kentucky Governor Allison Grimes to resign for Opioid Committee, cites direction of the Committee.
November 9th: Kevin De Leon declares bid for Feinstein’s seat.
November 10th: Sununu “understands” Grimes’ resignation, says Committee is almost ready to release policy recommendation.
November 12th: Nan Whaley will challenge Portman in Ohio Senate race.
November 18th: Solis will seek a full term in the Senate, undeterred by challengers.
November 22nd: Eric Garcetti is in on the CA senate race.
November 23rd: Republican Travis Allen withdraws from Governor’s race to run for Feinstein’s seat.

---

Haley Approval Rating:
Approve -- 50%
Disapprove -- 44%
Unsure:6%

Congressional Generic Ballot:
Republicans -- 44%
Democrats -- 42%
Unsure:14%

2020 Polling: Haley vs Generic Democrat
Haley -- 45%
Generic Democrat -- 40%
Unsure/Other: 15%