Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: heatcharger on December 08, 2017, 06:26:35 PM



Title: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: heatcharger on December 08, 2017, 06:26:35 PM
Link to the second one. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=277182.0)

How many points does Moore win by? Should Democrats call for the expulsion of Alabama from the union? Discuss.


-

Link to NYT results page: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones (https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 08, 2017, 06:28:22 PM
I'm thinking negative 1% or so.

Can't believe that we needed thread number three before Election Day.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Maxwell on December 08, 2017, 06:30:53 PM
Roy the Boy is going to win by 4-5 points.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 08, 2017, 06:34:26 PM
It's a complete tossup at this point. This is uncharted territory and nobody knows what turnout is going to look like. Gun to my head, I'd say Jones +1.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on December 08, 2017, 06:35:02 PM
I would guess Moore wins from anywhere between 3-5 points; though a Jones victory wouldn't absolutely shock me. Anyway a lot is obviously going to depend on turnout.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on December 08, 2017, 06:36:30 PM
What % of writeins will there be? I'm predicting less than 3%, most likely low 2%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 08, 2017, 06:53:23 PM
Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 08, 2017, 06:55:07 PM
Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

Maybe they lost their darts.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on December 08, 2017, 06:55:15 PM
Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

I wouldn't count on it lol. I'm thinking it'll be +5 Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 08, 2017, 07:01:20 PM
Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

Maybe they lost their darts.

lol


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 08, 2017, 07:04:34 PM
Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

They were going to herd with the rest of the polls but then they saw the SurveyMonkey poll and malfunctioned.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Devout Centrist on December 08, 2017, 07:11:58 PM
Very likely their big shift shows Moore up. This is Gravis after all, wouldn’t put it past them to herd.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: KingSweden on December 08, 2017, 07:21:34 PM
Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

Maybe they lost their darts.

This made me burst out laughing


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 08, 2017, 07:26:57 PM
Arkansas Yankee keeps bringing up Ted Kennedy but the last post of the previous megathread is him saying he would just watch as someone strangles Gloria Allred.

So...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 08, 2017, 07:47:47 PM
Moore by single digits, but there's about a 30% chance that Jones shocks the world and wins. Democrats should call for Moore's explusion and Alabama's secession, unless Jones wins of course.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Horus on December 08, 2017, 07:52:30 PM
Moore wins by 10-12, gets seated.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: DrScholl on December 08, 2017, 07:54:21 PM
I say Moore narrowly loses, goes off on a crazed rant and then files multiple lawsuits that have no legal standing. The low turnout is the wild card here and it will work in Jones' favor.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 08, 2017, 08:00:36 PM
I say Moore narrowly loses, goes off on a crazed rant and then files multiple lawsuits that have no legal standing. The low turnout is the wild card here and it will work in Jones' favor.

I think Moore wins narrowly, but you’re absolutely right about low turnout being a wildcard. I think that if a voter has even a shred of doubt in Moore, they’d more likely stay home than not.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 08, 2017, 08:11:42 PM
Arkansas Yankee keeps bringing up Ted Kennedy but the last post of the previous megathread is him saying he would just watch as someone strangles Gloria Allred.

So...
I do not know whether to take you seriously or not.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on December 08, 2017, 08:17:54 PM
I'd say it's a tossup at this point. The poll differences are about the same as how it was in the 2016 presidential election, and we know what happened there. If Jones can get the minority turnout up high enough he has a very, very good chance.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 08, 2017, 08:19:55 PM
I agree with the talk about low turnout helping Jones. Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 08, 2017, 08:28:31 PM
Arkansas Yankee keeps bringing up Ted Kennedy but the last post of the previous megathread is him saying he would just watch as someone strangles Gloria Allred.

So...
I do not know whether to take you seriously or not.

I know to not take you seriously.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sirius_ on December 08, 2017, 08:45:33 PM
I'd say it's a tossup at this point. The poll differences are about the same as how it was in the 2016 presidential election, and we know what happened there. If Jones can get the minority turnout up high enough he has a very, very good chance.

Betting on disproportionate minority turnout in a special election is like throwing your entire savings at the lottery. Historically, they are almost always under-represented relative to general elections. There's always a first time I guess!
I'd say it's a tossup, but not because of minority turnout.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sorenroy on December 08, 2017, 08:45:58 PM
I plan on making a longer post on this when I have more time (i.e.: after the my semester's finals), but I think that there are reasons a conservative Alabaman's would vote for Roy Moore.

Best case scenario, Roy Moore is found innocent of all charges or (more likely) is forced to resign and send the district back to square one for another special election. Worse case scenario, Moore takes his seat and is a conservative voice for Alabama, albeit a sleazy one and then is easily primaried when his regular election comes up.

Compare this to Jones winning and you have someone that does not represent Alabamans quite as much and has a much better chance of becoming intrenched by swinging to a more moderate point of view.

Even if it reflects negatively on the Republican Party as a whole, there was a good chance that Republican's would lose their three chamber majority anyway come 2018. Better to have the strongest possible majority now and get as much passed while you can then weaken your Congress now in hopes of having a less awful loss come next year.


In terms of predicting the race, I am currently leaning towards a modest Moore victory. I think the actual vote could be anywhere from Jones by three points to Moore by four (trying to keep the range fairly small here, it obviously could be way off). My prediction will probably change if more polls come out this weekend/Monday.

Roy Moore (R) — 50%
Doug Jones (D) — 48%
Write-Ins — 2%


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: jaichind on December 08, 2017, 08:49:41 PM
Gravis  Moore 49(+5) Jones 45(-3)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 08, 2017, 09:00:23 PM
So we have Survey Monkey saying "Jones should win, but..." and Gravis saying "Moore should win, but...". How one should interpret this is beyond me.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 08, 2017, 09:11:10 PM
So we have Survey Monkey saying "Jones should win, but..." and Gravis saying "Moore should win, but...". How one should interpret this is beyond me.

Isn't Survey monkey trash tho

Mixed bag. Some correct calls last year and some big misses.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 08, 2017, 09:18:36 PM
Some pics from the Trump-Moore-Klan rally:

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 08, 2017, 09:27:58 PM

Look at all this economic anxiety:

Quote
Josh Dawsey
@jdawsey1

Trump is mocking the Roy Moore accuser at the center of the yearbook dispute. "Did you see that?" Then adds of Gloria Allred: "Anytime you see her, you know something is going wrong."



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 08, 2017, 09:33:11 PM

Look at all this economic anxiety:

Quote
Josh Dawsey
@jdawsey1

Trump is mocking the Roy Moore accuser at the center of the yearbook dispute. "Did you see that?" Then adds of Gloria Allred: "Anytime you see her, you know something is going wrong."



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 08, 2017, 09:34:35 PM
https://news.vice.com/story/why-these-alabama-voters-are-sticking-by-roy-moore

Frank Luntz panel:

Quote
“Forty years ago in Alabama, there’s a lotta mamas and daddies that would be thrilled that their 14-year-old was getting hit on by a district attorney,” one voter said.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 08, 2017, 09:48:48 PM
https://news.vice.com/story/why-these-alabama-voters-are-sticking-by-roy-moore

Frank Luntz panel:

Quote
“Forty years ago in Alabama, there’s a lotta mamas and daddies that would be thrilled that their 14-year-old was getting hit on by a district attorney,” one voter said.

Pedo confirmed


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: DrScholl on December 08, 2017, 09:51:56 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr. Arch on December 08, 2017, 10:03:05 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

Absolutely right


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 08, 2017, 10:06:34 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 08, 2017, 10:08:58 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.
We arrest our predators, they elect them.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 08, 2017, 10:11:24 PM
Trump's low energy rally:

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 08, 2017, 10:16:46 PM

Wonder how much he paid them.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 08, 2017, 10:17:20 PM
Holy what 3 megathreads for ALABAMA??? Whoever would have guessed?

Also, apologies for threatening to strangle Gloria Allred. I was just really mad at her bungling.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 08, 2017, 10:21:08 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.
Oh f**k off


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 08, 2017, 10:22:27 PM

He paid them in expired Trump steaks and Chinese language copies of The Art of The Deal


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 08, 2017, 10:28:54 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.
We arrest our predators, they elect them.

Why did you try to put Bill Clinton back in the White House?  Again that was not ancient history.  You were part of it.

If Bill had been impeached and convicted in 1999, Gore would have become President.  He probably would have been elected in 2000.  That would have changed the world.  


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 08, 2017, 10:32:15 PM

This has to be before or after the rally right? No way the actual rally was this empty in a region so full of Republicans.

There are Trump bots trying to pass off pics from the 2016 campaign at the same venue in the comments

https://www.twitter.com/johnlundin/status/939312861159002112


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: OneJ on December 08, 2017, 10:33:27 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.

I tell you one thing, it's hard for me to actually have feelings for them.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 08, 2017, 10:34:32 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.
We arrest our predators, they elect them.

Why did you try to put Bill Clinton back in the White House?  Again that was not ancient history.  You were part of it.

If Bill had been impeached and convicted in 1999, Gore would have become President.  He probably would have been elected in 2000.  That would have changed the world.  
Fair point. Democrats have been sleazy in the past regarding people like Slick Willy, but the stark difference between the two parties right now is undeniable.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 08, 2017, 10:36:49 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.
Oh f**k off

Actually in this post I just explained there position.  I did not justify it. I have other issues that motivate me.  

It is so sad you live by foul language.  So, childlish.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 08, 2017, 10:38:18 PM

Does Santander know you're posting his pics here?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 08, 2017, 10:47:06 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.

I tell you one thing, it's hard for me to actually have feelings for them.

I understand why you feel that way.  Thank you for not swearing at me.

You should remember that statewide these were basically the same people who voted for Clinton in 1992 & 1996.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on December 08, 2017, 11:00:28 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.

lmao do they really feel as if they are under attack? That is honestly so, so, so sad.

As a white catholic male who went to a high school with only 12% white people and most non religious, I have never felt persecuted for who I am in my entire life.

(I'm not trying to insult you by the way. I appreciate your posts & perspective even though we have very different worldviews. I'm just expressing my annoyance at many people who are older and claim to be "christian".)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 08, 2017, 11:01:48 PM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.

lmao do they really feel as if they are under attack? That is honestly so, so, so sad.

As a white catholic male who went to a high school with only 12% white people and most non religious, I have never felt persecuted for who I am in my entire life.

(I'm not trying to insult you by the way. I appreciate your posts & perspective even though we have very different worldviews.)

Also lol, even if they do feel under attack, how is that an excuse for tolerating pedophilia?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 09, 2017, 12:10:14 AM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.

lmao do they really feel as if they are under attack? That is honestly so, so, so sad.

As a white catholic male who went to a high school with only 12% white people and most non religious, I have never felt persecuted for who I am in my entire life.

(I'm not trying to insult you by the way. I appreciate your posts & perspective even though we have very different worldviews.)

Also lol, even if they do feel under attack, how is that an excuse for tolerating pedophilia?


Because they believe him that he did not commit the offenses or they believe that he can be foregiven after 40 years without any similar charges. Contrary to what you allege, they are not evil people. T

Again he is not a pedofile, if he committed the offenses. The alleged victims were older than 13.  A true pedofile does not just stop. It is the compulsion that makes a true pedophile.

Y’all tell me to stop bringing up a 50 year old offense by Kennedy, but you want to hang Moore for 40 year old alleged offenses.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 09, 2017, 12:17:59 AM
Just saying 'what about Ted Kennedy' or 'what about Bill Clinton' is NOT a justification to vote for Roy Moore. If the Democrats are such sleazebags, surely Republicans should seize the moral highground and be better than them by not voting for Roy Moore. The only way you will get better politics is of people finally take a stand and refuse to endorse this kind of behavior. Allowing and supporting Moore because 'what about(insert boogeyman Democrat here)' won't improve anything and will lead to America having worse Democratic and Republican officeholders in the long-run. The choice is clear, between tolerating and not tolerating Moore's behavior, and people need to stand up and not tolerate it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 09, 2017, 12:24:17 AM
Will Fox News release a final poll in the next few days? Their polls are more Jones-friendly.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 09, 2017, 12:29:36 AM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.

lmao do they really feel as if they are under attack? That is honestly so, so, so sad.

As a white catholic male who went to a high school with only 12% white people and most non religious, I have never felt persecuted for who I am in my entire life.

(I'm not trying to insult you by the way. I appreciate your posts & perspective even though we have very different worldviews.)

Also lol, even if they do feel under attack, how is that an excuse for tolerating pedophilia?


Because they believe him that he did not commit the offenses or they believe that he can be foregiven after 40 years without any similar charges. Contrary to what you allege, they are not evil people. T

Again he is not a pedofile, if he committed the offenses. The alleged victims were older than 13.  A true pedofile does not just stop. It is the compulsion that makes a true pedophile.

Y’all tell me to stop bringing up a 50 year old offense by Kennedy, but you want to hang Moore for 40 year old alleged offenses.

Kennedy is not running for anything.

Moore is running for Senate.

Kennedy and Clinton were before my time anyway. (As in, before I paid attention to politics).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 09, 2017, 12:42:17 AM
Just saying 'what about Ted Kennedy' or 'what about Bill Clinton' is NOT a justification to vote for Roy Moore. If the Democrats are such sleazebags, surely Republicans should seize the moral highground and be better than them  by not voting for Roy Moore. The only way you will get better politics is of people finally take a stand and refuse to endorse this kind of behavior. Allowing and supporting Moore because 'what about(insert boogeyman Democrat here)' won't improve anything and will lead to America having worse Democratic and Republican officeholders in the long-run. The choice is clear, between tolerating and not tolerating Moore's behavior, and people need to stand up and not tolerate it.

As I have said Moore’s supporters do not believe the alleged victims or they foregiven him for 40 year old offenses.  I tell them their may be a problem with his possible lying.

You should have run a “Blue Dog” if you wanted to attract more of Moore’s supporters.  You are forcing them to accept a far left winger with whom they do not agree.

I use the whatabout to get y’all off your self righteous stand of moral superiority For your Party.  I also want you to understand that the voters of Massachusetts have no higher moral standards than the voters of Alabama.  

That’s all for tonight  I want watch some Tv that my wife has no interest in watching.  Go to bed realizing we are all sinners.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Prussian1871 on December 09, 2017, 12:54:37 AM
You are forcing them to accept a far left winger with whom they do not agree.

Lmao.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 09, 2017, 01:00:14 AM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.

lmao do they really feel as if they are under attack? That is honestly so, so, so sad.

As a white catholic male who went to a high school with only 12% white people and most non religious, I have never felt persecuted for who I am in my entire life.

(I'm not trying to insult you by the way. I appreciate your posts & perspective even though we have very different worldviews.)

Also lol, even if they do feel under attack, how is that an excuse for tolerating pedophilia?


Because they believe him that he did not commit the offenses or they believe that he can be foregiven after 40 years without any similar charges. Contrary to what you allege, they are not evil people. T

Again he is not a pedofile, if he committed the offenses. The alleged victims were older than 13.  A true pedofile does not just stop. It is the compulsion that makes a true pedophile.

Y’all tell me to stop bringing up a 50 year old offense by Kennedy, but you want to hang Moore for 40 year old alleged offenses.

Kennedy is not running for anything.

Moore is running for Senate.

Kennedy and Clinton were before my time anyway. (As in, before I paid attention to politics).

See my post at 12:42 am

You still have 2 Clintons to deal with .  They are not going away quietly.

Your Conyers problem is not solved.  Having grown up on the east side of Detroit, I believe there is very strong chance a Conyers, who is a sexual predator is going to be replaced by one, who maybe a girlfriend  beater and stabber.

Franken has not actually resigned.  His victims are in a rage.

Then there are corrupt Democrat and GOP machines around the country. the country.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 09, 2017, 01:10:11 AM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.

lmao do they really feel as if they are under attack? That is honestly so, so, so sad.

As a white catholic male who went to a high school with only 12% white people and most non religious, I have never felt persecuted for who I am in my entire life.

(I'm not trying to insult you by the way. I appreciate your posts & perspective even though we have very different worldviews.)

Also lol, even if they do feel under attack, how is that an excuse for tolerating pedophilia?


Because they believe him that he did not commit the offenses or they believe that he can be foregiven after 40 years without any similar charges. Contrary to what you allege, they are not evil people. T

Again he is not a pedofile, if he committed the offenses. The alleged victims were older than 13.  A true pedofile does not just stop. It is the compulsion that makes a true pedophile.

Y’all tell me to stop bringing up a 50 year old offense by Kennedy, but you want to hang Moore for 40 year old alleged offenses.

Kennedy is not running for anything.

Moore is running for Senate.

Kennedy and Clinton were before my time anyway. (As in, before I paid attention to politics).

I see you are a Joe Biden supporter.  Are we going to discuss the allegations of all his touching of women and swiming in the nude in the front of female Secret Service agents.

COME OFF THE MORAL PEDESTAL.  Oppose Moore on these grounds, even point out that GOP VOTERS are not properly dealing with a sexual predator, but stop attacking them as evil and immoral.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 09, 2017, 01:13:29 AM
Arkansas Yankee, I say this with kindness: you need to relax.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 09, 2017, 01:18:16 AM
Again, Democrats being flawed isn't a justification for Moore. If you're really opposed to sexual misconduct, take the moral high ground and just DON'T SUPPORT MOORE.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Indy Texas on December 09, 2017, 02:40:24 AM
There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.

lmao do they really feel as if they are under attack? That is honestly so, so, so sad.

As a white catholic male who went to a high school with only 12% white people and most non religious, I have never felt persecuted for who I am in my entire life.

(I'm not trying to insult you by the way. I appreciate your posts & perspective even though we have very different worldviews.)

Also lol, even if they do feel under attack, how is that an excuse for tolerating pedophilia?


Because they believe him that he did not commit the offenses or they believe that he can be foregiven after 40 years without any similar charges. Contrary to what you allege, they are not evil people. T

Again he is not a pedofile, if he committed the offenses. The alleged victims were older than 13.  A true pedofile does not just stop. It is the compulsion that makes a true pedophile.

Y’all tell me to stop bringing up a 50 year old offense by Kennedy, but you want to hang Moore for 40 year old alleged offenses.

The Kennedys are all dead now. And they would not be nominated by the 21st century Democratic Party.

Roy Moore is very much alive and is running for the US Senate.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 09, 2017, 07:11:49 AM
[quote author=Indy Texas link=topic=279249.msg5949851#msg5949851

The Kennedys are all dead now. And they would not be nominated by the 21st century Democratic Party.

Roy Moore is very much alive and is running for the US Senate.
[/quote]

LOL

The only states in New England that would not elect Ted Kennedy Senator today are probably New Hampshire and maybe Maine. New York would elect him. New Jersey, Maryland,and California would probably elect him.

I truly think that Alabama is the only state that could really elect Moore.  We shall see. Arkansas and Tennessee might, but I doubt it in the end.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: gottsu on December 09, 2017, 07:25:59 AM
Tossup with Republican lean.

Please everyone note that after GOP and Trump started more or less formally to support Moore, his numbers in various polls have gone better. I remember time when Jones had 0,2% lead on RealClearPolitics aggregated poll, now it shows 2-3% Moore lead.



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 09, 2017, 08:05:59 AM
Charles Franklin, the Marquette Law pollster, has an interesting thread on the SurveyMonkey results: https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/939351655715430401 (https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/939351655715430401).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 09, 2017, 10:44:16 AM
Quote
Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill told me yesterday he is adjusting his turnout prediction for Tuesday to "at least 25%" after counties reporting to him huge uptick in requests for absentee ballots--Madison & Tuscaloosa counties 6x more than primary/runoff.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/939518935120142338


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 09, 2017, 10:48:07 AM
Quote
Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill told me yesterday he is adjusting his turnout prediction for Tuesday to "at least 25%" after counties reporting to him huge uptick in requests for absentee ballots--Madison & Tuscaloosa counties 6x more than primary/runoff.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/939518935120142338

Interesting. I wonder how Jefferson looks. I think Virginia spoiled us when we were able to see the absentee numbers in every county.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 09, 2017, 11:24:08 AM
Stupid sh**t like that picture is annoying because it propagates the lie that Trump has no support even in his best areas, which might cause some people to just sit on their ass and do nothing.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tender Branson on December 09, 2017, 11:27:38 AM
Quote
Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill told me yesterday he is adjusting his turnout prediction for Tuesday to "at least 25%" after counties reporting to him huge uptick in requests for absentee ballots--Madison & Tuscaloosa counties 6x more than primary/runoff.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/939518935120142338

Ehh, 25% is an extremely conservative turnout projection based on these absentee requests.

Turnout was ca. 18% for the GOP/DEM primary and for the Presidential election it was 64%.

If absentee requests are up by a lot and AL resembles other special elections, then turnout will be around 35-40% on Tuesday.

Even the 2014 Senate election in which the R candidate was unopposed, had 800.000 voters and 25% turnout.

My estimate is 1.2-1.4 million votes cast on Tuesday.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 09, 2017, 11:32:14 AM
Lyman says this.

Quote
Montgomery also up; Jefferson Co. roughly where it would be in a state general election (compared w/a special one). Houston Co. in the Wiregrass, key to Moore's chances, also up, as is Moore's home county, Etowah. #ALSEN

https://mobile.twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/939520000553111554

Dothan up is good for Moore but I'm feeling like Etowah won't come out in big numbers for him.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: ursulahx on December 09, 2017, 11:50:48 AM
In a state where Republicans massively outnumber Democrats, increased turnout in all areas is good news for the GOP. Unless all those Republicans have switched sides.

I called this for Moore ages ago, and I’ve seen nothing to make me change my mind. There’s no fairytale ending here; people really are that disgusting. The good news is they’re (probably) in a minority nationally.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 09, 2017, 12:01:56 PM
You sir are fake news.
https://mobile.twitter.com/yashar/status/939526250812538881

You know what's not fake news: Roy Moore banging 14 year olds


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: kyc0705 on December 09, 2017, 12:20:23 PM
Quote
Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill told me yesterday he is adjusting his turnout prediction for Tuesday to "at least 25%" after counties reporting to him huge uptick in requests for absentee ballots--Madison & Tuscaloosa counties 6x more than primary/runoff.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/939518935120142338

Who stands to benefit from this? Or can't we tell?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 09, 2017, 12:25:40 PM
Get your Hillary tree topper to replace your angel topper.:

http://www.dailywire.com/news/24386/merry-resist-mas-you-can-now-get-hillary-clinton-emily-zanotti?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=092117-news&utm_campaign=dwtwitter

You ain't rid of them yet!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 09, 2017, 12:26:21 PM
Quote
Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill told me yesterday he is adjusting his turnout prediction for Tuesday to "at least 25%" after counties reporting to him huge uptick in requests for absentee ballots--Madison & Tuscaloosa counties 6x more than primary/runoff.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/939518935120142338

Who stands to benefit from this? Or can't we tell?

Madison County includes Huntsville, and Tuscaloosa is home to the University of Alabama.  In theory, these should be good areas for Jones.  Another post upthread also mentions high absentee requests in Montgomery and Jefferson (Birmingham) which are also areas Jones needs.  It also mentioned upticks in Houston (Dothan) and Etowah (Gadsden), which should be strong Moore areas.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 09, 2017, 12:59:54 PM
Quote
Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill told me yesterday he is adjusting his turnout prediction for Tuesday to "at least 25%" after counties reporting to him huge uptick in requests for absentee ballots--Madison & Tuscaloosa counties 6x more than primary/runoff.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/939518935120142338

Who stands to benefit from this? Or can't we tell?

Madison County includes Huntsville, and Tuscaloosa is home to the University of Alabama.  In theory, these should be good areas for Jones.  Another post upthread also mentions high absentee requests in Montgomery and Jefferson (Birmingham) which are also areas Jones needs.  It also mentioned upticks in Houston (Dothan) and Etowah (Gadsden), which should be strong Moore areas.

A little more on this:

Quote
Look at Tuscaloosa County:
In 2012, Romney won +18; Roy Moore lost -5. A county with history of GOP voters willing to crossover away from Moore to DEM.
Absentee ballot requests in Tuscaloosa this week? Magaria Bobo, election manager, tells me “very high turnout.” Requests 6x more

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/939521255677595648


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 09, 2017, 01:06:03 PM
Moore won Etowah county in 2012 but it gave him some pretty weak numbers, especially for his home base. Since then, with the allegations, I would keep a close eye on that one Tuesday.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 09, 2017, 01:07:41 PM
Could it be Allred wants Moore elected,so he becomes a problem for the GOP leadership?

If so, the leadership needs to step up and expel him, if he signed the yearbook.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Skye on December 09, 2017, 01:15:35 PM
This race leans R. I wouldn't be surprised if Moore wins by high single digits.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 09, 2017, 01:22:56 PM
Dothan is one area I'd expect to be unequivocally in Moore's corner.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 09, 2017, 01:29:52 PM
Somehow, I don't think Gadsden is going to turn in very high numbers for their homegrown Chester the Molester.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 09, 2017, 02:25:43 PM
Get your Hillary tree topper to replace your angel topper.:

http://www.dailywire.com/news/24386/merry-resist-mas-you-can-now-get-hillary-clinton-emily-zanotti?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=092117-news&utm_campaign=dwtwitter

You ain't rid of them yet!


Really confused what this has to do with AL-Sen unless it's another bizarre reason for you to support  diddler brethren

Early signs of senility?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 09, 2017, 02:39:56 PM
I’m in Gadsden right now.. a lot more signs are out today for both candidates. Jones still has more than Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 09, 2017, 02:41:29 PM
I’m in Gadsden right now.. a lot more signs are out today for both candidates. Jones still has more than Moore.

Yeah, it's pretty obvious that polls are underestimating Jones' strength in this race IMO.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on December 09, 2017, 02:48:25 PM
I’m in Gadsden right now.. a lot more signs are out today for both candidates. Jones still has more than Moore.
Our those lawn signs or signs just on public property?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 09, 2017, 02:50:47 PM
On polling, I sometimes think of this one thing Nate Silver said.

First Rule of Polling Errors: Polls almost always miss in the opposite direction of what pundits expect.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

There's a lot more uncertainty in races like these, and perhaps the conventional wisdom being in favor of Moore winning means that the polling error is going to break in favor of Jones. Or maybe this is all dumb. We'll see.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 09, 2017, 03:05:53 PM
On polling, I sometimes think of this one thing Nate Silver said.

First Rule of Polling Errors: Polls almost always miss in the opposite direction of what pundits expect.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

There's a lot more uncertainty in races like these, and perhaps the conventional wisdom being in favor of Moore winning means that the polling error is going to break in favor of Jones. Or maybe this is all dumb. We'll see.

That's my personal opinion. My gut feeling is Jones is being underrated.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 09, 2017, 04:04:36 PM
I’m in Gadsden right now.. a lot more signs are out today for both candidates. Jones still has more than Moore.
Our those lawn signs or signs just on public property?

Both


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 09, 2017, 04:21:20 PM
I’m in Gadsden right now.. a lot more signs are out today for both candidates. Jones still has more than Moore.
Our those lawn signs or signs just on public property?

Both

Who has more signs at the mall?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 09, 2017, 04:41:01 PM
Looks like Rapin' Roy be scamming peoples credit cards:

Quote
Indira Lakshmanan
@Indira_L

I interviewed Colo. man who found fraudulent $250 donation to Roy Moore via fundraising platform @anedot on his credit card statement. No other fraudulent charges & he's never been to Alabama. Card statements below. Anyone heard of others? Pls spread word, reach out to me



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 09, 2017, 05:25:49 PM
At this point I’m assuming anyone who votes for Moore should have their hard drive looked at by the FBI.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 09, 2017, 05:26:48 PM
At this point I’m assuming anyone who votes for Moore should have their hard drive looked at by the FBI.
That's highly unethical.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Young Conservative on December 09, 2017, 05:47:51 PM
Everyone person voting for Moore I know is voting assuming he will be expelled by the Senate.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 09, 2017, 05:49:37 PM
Everyone person voting for Moore I know is voting assuming he will be expelled by the Senate.

That's a very shaky assumption.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on December 09, 2017, 05:53:36 PM
Everyone person voting for Moore I know is voting assuming he will be expelled by the Senate.

wat

That sounds like post-hoc rationalization to me. There isn't any evidence that says Moore getting expelled is be a certainty. It sounds to me like these people want Moore to win but don't want to admit they don't care about being represented by a pedophile.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Young Conservative on December 09, 2017, 06:13:07 PM
The people I am speaking of are all either successful business people, lawyers, or educators. These are normal people...very interesting to see their perspective.



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 09, 2017, 06:16:32 PM
The people I am speaking of are all either successful business people, lawyers, or educators. These are normal people...very interesting to see their perspective.



They're just lying to you

They probably get home and can't wait to watch the next pro-Trump/Moore video on YouTube


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Young Conservative on December 09, 2017, 06:21:15 PM
The elitist and derogatory rhetoric you people are taking is the reason this election is even close... Democrats need to wake up and realize that elitism may work in Seattle but it doesn't work in Montgomery....


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 09, 2017, 06:22:09 PM
The elitist and derogatory rhetoric you people are taking is the reason this election is even close... Democrats need to wake up and realize that elitism may work in Seattle but it doesn't work in Montgomery....

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2016&fips=1101&f=0&off=0&elect=0


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 09, 2017, 06:24:10 PM
The elitist and derogatory rhetoric you people are taking is the reason this election is even close... Democrats need to wake up and realize that elitism may work in Seattle but it doesn't work in Montgomery....

The reason the election is close is because Roy Moore f**cks underage teens


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on December 09, 2017, 06:24:46 PM
How is it elitist?

Moore isn't going to get expelled from the Senate. That's not a Coastal Elite position. People who are telling you they are going to vote for Moore but don't think he will end up serving are trying to have it both ways -- they want a Republican to serve them but don't don't want to admit they think that it's more important to have a Republican than to have a child abuser. They can't do that. If they really didn't want Moore in the Senate, they wouldn't be voting for him. They are voting for him either with the full knowledge that he will be seated or have deluded themselves in order to justify voting for a pedophile.

Stop trying to pull the "coastal elitist" shtick. It's a lazy comeback.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 09, 2017, 06:28:56 PM
Another pretty good video from Team Jones. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zeWN7enWMA)
I like it because he seems to somewhat tack to the right on this one(maybe to seem slightly more palatable to anti-Moore Rs), but not in a way that makes him seem phony or like he's trying to out-Republican the Republican(see: Alison Lundergan Grimes).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on December 09, 2017, 06:30:43 PM
Another pretty good video from Team Jones. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zeWN7enWMA)
I like it because he seems to somewhat tack to the right on this one(maybe to seem slightly more palatable to anti-Moore Rs), but not in a way that makes him seem phony or like he's trying to out-Republican the Republican(see: Alison Lundergan Grimes).
if only this was played on commercial breaks of trumps speech...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 09, 2017, 06:32:02 PM
Another pretty good video from Team Jones. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zeWN7enWMA)
I like it because he seems to somewhat tack to the right on this one(maybe to seem slightly more palatable to anti-Moore Rs), but not in a way that makes him seem phony or like he's trying to out-Republican the Republican(see: Alison Lundergan Grimes).
if only this was played on commercial breaks of trumps speech...
Yeah. The unfortunate part of this video is that it may be too little too late. Not sure if it could really get to anyone or change anyone's minds anymore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on December 09, 2017, 06:36:22 PM
The elitist and derogatory rhetoric you people are taking is the reason this election is even close... Democrats need to wake up and realize that elitism may work in Seattle but it doesn't work in Montgomery....

the gop is clearly the elitist party policywise.

people realize this, they just don't care.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on December 09, 2017, 06:37:51 PM
Another pretty good video from Team Jones. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zeWN7enWMA)
I like it because he seems to somewhat tack to the right on this one(maybe to seem slightly more palatable to anti-Moore Rs), but not in a way that makes him seem phony or like he's trying to out-Republican the Republican(see: Alison Lundergan Grimes).
if only this was played on commercial breaks of trumps speech...

Yeah. The unfortunate part of this video is that it may be too little too late. Not sure if it could really get to anyone or change anyone's minds anymore.
I actually think he should use a ton of his remaining money on this ad, running it in all parts of the state, but not going full Ossoff to the point where its annoying.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 09, 2017, 07:04:26 PM
The elitist and derogatory rhetoric you people are taking is the reason this election is even close... Democrats need to wake up and realize that elitism may work in Seattle but it doesn't work in Montgomery....
If you vote for a pedophile, you’re deplorable and deserve to be shamed.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 09, 2017, 07:06:27 PM
At this point I’m assuming anyone who votes for Moore should have their hard drive looked at by the FBI.
That's highly unethical.
Naturally you’d be against this, Mr. Child Porn Should Be Legal


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 09, 2017, 07:08:03 PM
Why doesn't the RCP average include any polls from change research? They are no less legit than gravis or traflgar.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 09, 2017, 07:15:54 PM
Why doesn't the RCP average include any polls from change research? They are no less legit than gravis or traflgar.

Are they the idiots who did a poll in one afternoon?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 09, 2017, 07:18:41 PM
Why doesn't the RCP average include any polls from change research? They are no less legit than gravis or traflgar.

Are they the idiots who did a poll in one afternoon?

no, that poll believe it or not is indeed in the rcp average, it was the raycom poll.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: kyc0705 on December 09, 2017, 07:20:03 PM
The elitist and derogatory rhetoric you people are taking is the reason this election is even close... Democrats need to wake up and realize that elitism may work in Seattle but it doesn't work in Montgomery....

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2016&fips=1101&f=0&off=0&elect=0

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 09, 2017, 08:41:56 PM
The elitist and derogatory rhetoric you people are taking is the reason this election is even close... Democrats need to wake up and realize that elitism may work in Seattle but it doesn't work in Montgomery....
lmao

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 09, 2017, 08:45:19 PM
The elitist and derogatory rhetoric you people are taking is the reason this election is even close... Democrats need to wake up and realize that elitism may work in Seattle but it doesn't work in Montgomery....

Reword that to Alabama, they are doing just fine in Montgomery...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 09, 2017, 08:52:49 PM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 7,052,770 on December 09, 2017, 09:13:02 PM
There's no evidence to support the idea that Moore will be expelled. Anyone who uses that as a justification to vote Moore is either delusional, hasn't paid any attention, or just using that as an excuse because they're embarrassed to vote for a molester.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sumner 1868 on December 09, 2017, 09:22:08 PM
The elitist and derogatory rhetoric you people are taking is the reason this election is even close... Democrats need to wake up and realize that elitism may work in Seattle but it doesn't work in Montgomery....

You realize the lower and middle classes (even among whites) vote in Democratic in Seattle?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 09, 2017, 09:24:26 PM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 09, 2017, 09:27:28 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 09, 2017, 09:28:11 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sumner 1868 on December 09, 2017, 09:30:56 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=29&f=0&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=0&elect=0&fips=1&f=0

Far, far more Democrats in Missouri pre-Ferguson than Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 09, 2017, 09:31:34 PM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.

I said alleged pedophile, which he is. He has been alleged to be a pedophile. No one can prove he is or isn't right now, that's what alleged means. Even voting for an alleged pedophile is awful and should be treated as such, in my opinion.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 09, 2017, 09:38:29 PM
Another article (from NBC) about concerns over Black voter turnout: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/jones-needs-black-voters-beat-moore-alabama-try-telling-them-n827846 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/jones-needs-black-voters-beat-moore-alabama-try-telling-them-n827846)

White journalists flying in to interrogate them over the election probably isn't helping, tbh


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 09, 2017, 09:42:37 PM
Another article (from NBC) about concerns over Black voter turnout: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/jones-needs-black-voters-beat-moore-alabama-try-telling-them-n827846 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/jones-needs-black-voters-beat-moore-alabama-try-telling-them-n827846)

White journalists flying in to interrogate them over the election probably isn't helping, tbh

I swear they wrote tons of these during the VA GOV race

"Hurr Durr Northam isn't turning out minorities"


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 09, 2017, 09:46:00 PM
Another article (from NBC) about concerns over Black voter turnout: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/jones-needs-black-voters-beat-moore-alabama-try-telling-them-n827846 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/jones-needs-black-voters-beat-moore-alabama-try-telling-them-n827846)

White journalists flying in to interrogate them over the election probably isn't helping, tbh
I get it. Many of these people have dealt with racism and racists their entire life. Telling them to get out and vote Jones because he isn't racist, isn't exactly the most exciting pitch. What is he going to do for them? And the fact that he has to tiptoe around their issues so he doesn't trigger white voters he needs. It is a precarious position that I do not envy.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 09, 2017, 09:46:29 PM
Another article (from NBC) about concerns over Black voter turnout: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/jones-needs-black-voters-beat-moore-alabama-try-telling-them-n827846 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/jones-needs-black-voters-beat-moore-alabama-try-telling-them-n827846)

White journalists flying in to interrogate them over the election probably isn't helping, tbh

I swear they wrote tons of these during the VA GOV race

"Hurr Durr Northam isn't turning out minorities"

It's a recurring theme and I hate it. It puts undue pressure on non-white voters, imo, and if the result is unfavorable (like the 2016 presidential), then there are articles asking WHY non-white voters didn't turn out enough.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 09, 2017, 09:51:26 PM
Another article (from NBC) about concerns over Black voter turnout: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/jones-needs-black-voters-beat-moore-alabama-try-telling-them-n827846 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/jones-needs-black-voters-beat-moore-alabama-try-telling-them-n827846)

White journalists flying in to interrogate them over the election probably isn't helping, tbh

I swear they wrote tons of these during the VA GOV race

"Hurr Durr Northam isn't turning out minorities"

It's a recurring theme and I hate it. It puts undue pressure on non-white voters, imo, and if the result is unfavorable (like the 2016 presidential), then there are articles asking WHY non-white voters didn't turn out enough.

^^ this is a really good post


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 09, 2017, 09:58:40 PM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.

I said alleged pedophile, which he is. He has been alleged to be a pedophile. No one can prove he is or isn't right now, that's what alleged means. Even voting for an alleged pedophile is awful and should be treated as such, in my opinion.

He still cannot be an alleged pedophile. By definition they deal with children through 13.

If they use the language, I bet it backfires a lot in Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 09, 2017, 10:09:00 PM
Let's just all agree on the term "kiddy diddler" ok? Also Ted Kennedy.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 09, 2017, 10:19:44 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 09, 2017, 10:24:20 PM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.

I said alleged pedophile, which he is. He has been alleged to be a pedophile. No one can prove he is or isn't right now, that's what alleged means. Even voting for an alleged pedophile is awful and should be treated as such, in my opinion.

"Pedophile" seems to trigger Arkansas Yankee in a way that reminds me of something. Remember how racists hate being called racists the most?

He is probably the abuser in his little story with some other unlucky kid being the unfortunate victim... Probably some sick and twisted form of psychological projection.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 09, 2017, 10:31:58 PM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.
He diddles kids. That makes him a pedophile.

Maybe not “technically” because every pedophile who’s into 8th graders instead of 4th graders calls themselves an “ephebophile”. But an ephebophile is just a pedophile with a thesaurus.

IF YOU ARE SEXUALLY ATTRACTED TO PEOPLE UNDER THE AGE OF 18, AND YOU YOURSELF ARE NOT ALSO UNDER THE AGE OF 18 OR ONLY RECENTLY ABOVE IT, YOU ARE A PEDOPHILE.

THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF YOU ARE A 30 YEAR OLD DISTRICT ATTORNEY.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 09, 2017, 10:41:47 PM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.

I said alleged pedophile, which he is. He has been alleged to be a pedophile. No one can prove he is or isn't right now, that's what alleged means. Even voting for an alleged pedophile is awful and should be treated as such, in my opinion.

He still cannot be an alleged pedophile. By definition they deal with children through 13.

If they use the language, I bet it backfires a lot in Alabama.

I'm genuinely uncomfortable, and a little upset, by the way you're behaving in this thread and the previous one about this election. Roy Moore is accused of robbing children of their innocence, childhood, and so much more. It doesn't matter if they were 13 or 14 (as Leigh Corfman says she was in her allegation). They were underage and he was allegedly  in a position of power and influence. That's what matters. I don't argue on the internet, but I will say that I hope you treat this and similar issues with more respect and maturity in real life than you do here instead of defending people who are accused of this, and defending people who would vote for someone accused of this


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 09, 2017, 10:56:10 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

I've had Missouri 2012 at the back of my mind for a while too.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 09, 2017, 11:13:13 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

I've had Missouri 2012 at the back of my mind for a while too.

Missouri 2012 is my hope too, but Missouri also had a long history of sending Democrats into statewide office up until that point. Alabama does not.

Also, McCaskill was an incumbent, and the political landscape was less divided. Also Missouri voters have shown a lot of willingness even now to split Senate votes with presidential preferences (see Kander). Alabama, not so much.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 09, 2017, 11:16:05 PM
Let's just all agree on the term "kiddy diddler" ok? Also Ted Kennedy.

Ok with me.  But a huge number of people do not know what it means.  They might not google it.

Why don’t you just say what you claim he did.  You should also say he did it 40 years ago.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 09, 2017, 11:24:21 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

I've had Missouri 2012 at the back of my mind for a while too.

Missouri 2012 is my hope too, but Missouri also had a long history of sending Democrats into statewide office up until that point. Alabama does not.

Also, McCaskill was an incumbent, and the political landscape was less divided. Also Missouri voters have shown a lot of willingness even now to split Senate votes with presidential preferences (see Kander). Alabama, not so much.

Furthermore, all of the polls had McCaskill ahead in the final weeks.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 09, 2017, 11:28:35 PM
Let's just all agree on the term "kiddy diddler" ok? Also Ted Kennedy.

Ok with me.  But a huge number of people do not know what it means.  They might not google it.

Why don’t you just say what you claim he did.  You should also say he did it 40 years ago.

If someone killed someone 40 years ago, they're still a murderer.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 09, 2017, 11:38:35 PM
Let's just all agree on the term "kiddy diddler" ok? Also Ted Kennedy.

Ok with me.  But a huge number of people do not know what it means.  They might not google it.

Why don’t you just say what you claim he did.  You should also say he did it 40 years ago.

If someone killed someone 40 years ago, they're still a murderer.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 09, 2017, 11:40:48 PM
Moore is unrepentant for his sins. While he can't legally be punished it reflects on his character. What kind of person molests children, even 40 years ago?! That kind of person should NOT be in the US Senate.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: CatoMinor on December 10, 2017, 12:00:18 AM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?
Because Alabama is much less elastic than Missouri. Also Akin may have underperformed but the polls still showed him losing. Most recent polls have Moore up. It is a very different kind of race all together. The only similarity in my mind is that the GOO candidate said dumb stuff, but what Akin said is no where near Moore's history.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 10, 2017, 12:03:13 AM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.

I said alleged pedophile, which he is. He has been alleged to be a pedophile. No one can prove he is or isn't right now, that's what alleged means. Even voting for an alleged pedophile is awful and should be treated as such, in my opinion.

He still cannot be an alleged pedophile. By definition they deal with children through 13.

If they use the language, I bet it backfires a lot in Alabama.

I'm genuinely uncomfortable, and a little upset, by the way you're behaving in this thread and the previous one about this election. Roy Moore is accused of robbing children of their innocence, childhood, and so much more. It doesn't matter if they were 13 or 14 (as Leigh Corfman says she was in her allegation). They were underage and he was allegedly  in a position of power and influence. That's what matters. I don't argue on the internet, but I will say that I hope you treat this and similar issues with more respect and maturity in real life than you do here instead of defending people who are accused of this, and defending people who would vote for someone accused of this

I refer to Powerline blog for much better statement of my concerns with the only two victims who statements actually allege abuse:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/12/beverly-nelsons-credibility-takes-another-hit.php

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  What else is she lying about. Saying that, she may be telling the truth.  But she may not be.

Corfman alleged that her emotional problems began with Moore’s molestation.  However court records indicate she was in court for those emotional problems, when she met Moore.  The court records indicate her emotional state  got better after the alleged molestation.  I like the writer of the article do not know whether to believe her.

I also know that 38 years have passed without further allegations.  I do not believe that mercy is not available for him.  I would choose to send him to the Senate, as he would support more of the policies I support than Jones.  I would let the Senate ethics Committee deal with whether he should remain in the Senate and the validity of the claims.  

Please get off your self righteous horse.  Quit denigrating the morality of people who do not agree with you.

By the way I do not think the mere allegations against Franken are of a nature to drive him out of the Senate without a hearing.  I am not interested in engaging in a witch hunt for political heads.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 10, 2017, 12:07:13 AM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.

I said alleged pedophile, which he is. He has been alleged to be a pedophile. No one can prove he is or isn't right now, that's what alleged means. Even voting for an alleged pedophile is awful and should be treated as such, in my opinion.

He still cannot be an alleged pedophile. By definition they deal with children through 13.

If they use the language, I bet it backfires a lot in Alabama.

I'm genuinely uncomfortable, and a little upset, by the way you're behaving in this thread and the previous one about this election. Roy Moore is accused of robbing children of their innocence, childhood, and so much more. It doesn't matter if they were 13 or 14 (as Leigh Corfman says she was in her allegation). They were underage and he was allegedly  in a position of power and influence. That's what matters. I don't argue on the internet, but I will say that I hope you treat this and similar issues with more respect and maturity in real life than you do here instead of defending people who are accused of this, and defending people who would vote for someone accused of this

I refer to Powerline blog for much better statement of my concerns with the only two victims who statements actually allege abuse:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/12/beverly-nelsons-credibility-takes-another-hit.php

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  What else is she lying about. Saying that, she may be telling the truth.  But she may not be.

Corfman alleged that her emotional problems began with Moore’s molestation.  However court records indicate she was in court for those emotional problems, when she met Moore.  The court records indicate her emotional state  got better after the alleged molestation.  I like the writer of the article do not know whether to believe her.

I also know that 38 years have passed without further allegations.  I do not believe that mercy is not available for him.  I would choose to send him to the Senate, as he would support more of the policies I support than Jones.  I would let the Senate ethics Committee deal with whether he should remain in the Senate and the validity of the claims.  

Please get off your self righteous horse.  Quit denigrating the morality of people who do not agree with you.

By the way I do not think the mere allegations against Franken are of a nature to drive him out of the Senate without a hearing.  I am not interested in engaging in a witch hunt for political heads.

Dude....Roy Moore bangs preteens


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on December 10, 2017, 12:08:02 AM

I also know that 38 years have passed without further allegations.  I do not believe that mercy is not available for him.  I would choose to send him to the Senate, as he would support more of the policies I support than Jones.  I would let the Senate ethics Committee deal with whether he should remain in the Senate and the validity of the claims.  


I feel bad for voting for Johnny Isakson for senate now. The GOP and its base has the worst values.

Being a predator is now accepted for some reason. I just don't get it. Roy Moore is a despicable person who has said and done so much terrible garbage. Yet people still support him.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 10, 2017, 12:16:12 AM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.

I said alleged pedophile, which he is. He has been alleged to be a pedophile. No one can prove he is or isn't right now, that's what alleged means. Even voting for an alleged pedophile is awful and should be treated as such, in my opinion.

He still cannot be an alleged pedophile. By definition they deal with children through 13.

If they use the language, I bet it backfires a lot in Alabama.

I'm genuinely uncomfortable, and a little upset, by the way you're behaving in this thread and the previous one about this election. Roy Moore is accused of robbing children of their innocence, childhood, and so much more. It doesn't matter if they were 13 or 14 (as Leigh Corfman says she was in her allegation). They were underage and he was allegedly  in a position of power and influence. That's what matters. I don't argue on the internet, but I will say that I hope you treat this and similar issues with more respect and maturity in real life than you do here instead of defending people who are accused of this, and defending people who would vote for someone accused of this

I refer to Powerline blog for much better statement of my concerns with the only two victims who statements actually allege abuse:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/12/beverly-nelsons-credibility-takes-another-hit.php

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  What else is she lying about. Saying that, she may be telling the truth.  But she may not be.

Corfman alleged that her emotional problems began with Moore’s molestation.  However court records indicate she was in court for those emotional problems, when she met Moore.  The court records indicate her emotional state  got better after the alleged molestation.  I like the writer of the article do not know whether to believe her.

I also know that 38 years have passed without further allegations.  I do not believe that mercy is not available for him.  I would choose to send him to the Senate, as he would support more of the policies I support than Jones.  I would let the Senate ethics Committee deal with whether he should remain in the Senate and the validity of the claims.  

Please get off your self righteous horse.  Quit denigrating the morality of people who do not agree with you.

By the way I do not think the mere allegations against Franken are of a nature to drive him out of the Senate without a hearing.  I am not interested in engaging in a witch hunt for political heads.

I'll stay on my self-righteous horse because I can honestly say I would cross party lines to avoid voting for an alleged pedophile. And while I'm still on my self-righteous horse, I'll say that I sincerely feel sorry for you.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 10, 2017, 12:23:00 AM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.

I said alleged pedophile, which he is. He has been alleged to be a pedophile. No one can prove he is or isn't right now, that's what alleged means. Even voting for an alleged pedophile is awful and should be treated as such, in my opinion.

"Pedophile" seems to trigger Arkansas Yankee in a way that reminds me of something. Remember how racists hate being called racists the most?
Hmmmmm...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr. Arch on December 10, 2017, 12:24:20 AM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.

I said alleged pedophile, which he is. He has been alleged to be a pedophile. No one can prove he is or isn't right now, that's what alleged means. Even voting for an alleged pedophile is awful and should be treated as such, in my opinion.

He still cannot be an alleged pedophile. By definition they deal with children through 13.

If they use the language, I bet it backfires a lot in Alabama.

I'm genuinely uncomfortable, and a little upset, by the way you're behaving in this thread and the previous one about this election. Roy Moore is accused of robbing children of their innocence, childhood, and so much more. It doesn't matter if they were 13 or 14 (as Leigh Corfman says she was in her allegation). They were underage and he was allegedly  in a position of power and influence. That's what matters. I don't argue on the internet, but I will say that I hope you treat this and similar issues with more respect and maturity in real life than you do here instead of defending people who are accused of this, and defending people who would vote for someone accused of this

I refer to Powerline blog for much better statement of my concerns with the only two victims who statements actually allege abuse:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/12/beverly-nelsons-credibility-takes-another-hit.php

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  What else is she lying about. Saying that, she may be telling the truth.  But she may not be.

Corfman alleged that her emotional problems began with Moore’s molestation.  However court records indicate she was in court for those emotional problems, when she met Moore.  The court records indicate her emotional state  got better after the alleged molestation.  I like the writer of the article do not know whether to believe her.

I also know that 38 years have passed without further allegations.  I do not believe that mercy is not available for him.  I would choose to send him to the Senate, as he would support more of the policies I support than Jones.  I would let the Senate ethics Committee deal with whether he should remain in the Senate and the validity of the claims.  

Please get off your self righteous horse.  Quit denigrating the morality of people who do not agree with you.

By the way I do not think the mere allegations against Franken are of a nature to drive him out of the Senate without a hearing.  I am not interested in engaging in a witch hunt for political heads.

I'll stay on my self-righteous horse because I can honestly say I would cross party lines to avoid voting for an alleged pedophile. And while I'm still on my self-righteous horse, I'll say that I sincerely feel sorry for you.

X100


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 10, 2017, 12:30:50 AM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.

I said alleged pedophile, which he is. He has been alleged to be a pedophile. No one can prove he is or isn't right now, that's what alleged means. Even voting for an alleged pedophile is awful and should be treated as such, in my opinion.

He still cannot be an alleged pedophile. By definition they deal with children through 13.

If they use the language, I bet it backfires a lot in Alabama.

I'm genuinely uncomfortable, and a little upset, by the way you're behaving in this thread and the previous one about this election. Roy Moore is accused of robbing children of their innocence, childhood, and so much more. It doesn't matter if they were 13 or 14 (as Leigh Corfman says she was in her allegation). They were underage and he was allegedly  in a position of power and influence. That's what matters. I don't argue on the internet, but I will say that I hope you treat this and similar issues with more respect and maturity in real life than you do here instead of defending people who are accused of this, and defending people who would vote for someone accused of this

I refer to Powerline blog for much better statement of my concerns with the only two victims who statements actually allege abuse:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/12/beverly-nelsons-credibility-takes-another-hit.php

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  What else is she lying about. Saying that, she may be telling the truth.  But she may not be.

Corfman alleged that her emotional problems began with Moore’s molestation.  However court records indicate she was in court for those emotional problems, when she met Moore.  The court records indicate her emotional state  got better after the alleged molestation.  I like the writer of the article do not know whether to believe her.

I also know that 38 years have passed without further allegations.  I do not believe that mercy is not available for him.  I would choose to send him to the Senate, as he would support more of the policies I support than Jones.  I would let the Senate ethics Committee deal with whether he should remain in the Senate and the validity of the claims.  

Please get off your self righteous horse.  Quit denigrating the morality of people who do not agree with you.

By the way I do not think the mere allegations against Franken are of a nature to drive him out of the Senate without a hearing.  I am not interested in engaging in a witch hunt for political heads.

I'll stay on my self-righteous horse because I can honestly say I would cross party lines to avoid voting for an alleged pedophile. And while I'm still on my self-righteous horse, I'll say that I sincerely feel sorry for you.

X100


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on December 10, 2017, 12:36:20 AM
Unless I have someone on ignore, I did not see one mention that Roy Moore announced that he's gonna sue the pants off these liars!!!!! If that doesn't confirm how absurd this is, nothing will!

I am officially announcing this afternoon I filed lawsuits against each of my false accusers for libel and or slander. And I will not settle, see you in court. #RoyMoore #Alabama #Senate #Election #RoyMooreSenate #MAGA #FakeNews


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 10, 2017, 12:37:37 AM
I'd have a lot to say about normalizing middle aged people being attracted to children by using the "But pedophiles are only for under 13" thing. But I think Philip DeFranco has already said all I want to say on this.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 10, 2017, 12:39:09 AM
Unless I have someone on ignore, I did not see one mention that Roy Moore announced that he's gonna sue the pants off these liars!!!!! If that doesn't confirm how absurd this is, nothing will!

I am officially announcing this afternoon I filed lawsuits against each of my false accusers for libel and or slander. And I will not settle, see you in court. #RoyMoore #Alabama #Senate #Election #RoyMooreSenate #MAGA #FakeNews

Is he filing in state court? If so, he'd probably win no matter what since they worship the (R) over there.

Also, he literally has no proof of libel, and has lied numerous times to try to discredit his accusers.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Beet on December 10, 2017, 01:09:47 AM
Wait, Moore is denying all seven or eight of his accusers? Even the Powerline blog admits, that he once admitted he knew at least one of the women, they later said he didn't. Even if you deny credibility to Nelson, you have to admit Moore is not credible. Then you have to look at motive. The women have very little reason to make themselves highly polarizing figures by accusing Moore, unless they are telling the truth. Moore meanwhile has every motive to deny.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 10, 2017, 01:12:04 AM
Let's just all agree on the term "kiddy diddler" ok? Also Ted Kennedy.

Ok with me.  But a huge number of people do not know what it means.  They might not google it.

Why don’t you just say what you claim he did.  You should also say he did it 40 years ago.

If someone killed someone 40 years ago, they're still a murderer.

Everyone but Ted Kennedy.

Oh! I forgot you are to young to be held responsible for him.  Bull! I holding you responsible.  

Oh it was not premedated.  Well it was cowardly and someone died.

I think a lot of Alabamans are feeling like me

An additionally I will not support someone who will use his first votes to shut down the government, if directed by his masters.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 10, 2017, 01:22:45 AM
How is trash talking voters who support an alleged pedophile elitist and derogatory?

HE IS NOT A PEDOPHILE!!!

I bet some Jones supporters are using this language in Alabama.  I bet it is boomeranging. That may be why the polls are going the way they are.

I said alleged pedophile, which he is. He has been alleged to be a pedophile. No one can prove he is or isn't right now, that's what alleged means. Even voting for an alleged pedophile is awful and should be treated as such, in my opinion.

He still cannot be an alleged pedophile. By definition they deal with children through 13.

If they use the language, I bet it backfires a lot in Alabama.

I'm genuinely uncomfortable, and a little upset, by the way you're behaving in this thread and the previous one about this election. Roy Moore is accused of robbing children of their innocence, childhood, and so much more. It doesn't matter if they were 13 or 14 (as Leigh Corfman says she was in her allegation). They were underage and he was allegedly  in a position of power and influence. That's what matters. I don't argue on the internet, but I will say that I hope you treat this and similar issues with more respect and maturity in real life than you do here instead of defending people who are accused of this, and defending people who would vote for someone accused of this

I refer to Powerline blog for much better statement of my concerns with the only two victims who statements actually allege abuse:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/12/beverly-nelsons-credibility-takes-another-hit.php

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  What else is she lying about. Saying that, she may be telling the truth.  But she may not be.

Corfman alleged that her emotional problems began with Moore’s molestation.  However court records indicate she was in court for those emotional problems, when she met Moore.  The court records indicate her emotional state  got better after the alleged molestation.  I like the writer of the article do not know whether to believe her.

I also know that 38 years have passed without further allegations.  I do not believe that mercy is not available for him.  I would choose to send him to the Senate, as he would support more of the policies I support than Jones.  I would let the Senate ethics Committee deal with whether he should remain in the Senate and the validity of the claims.  

Please get off your self righteous horse.  Quit denigrating the morality of people who do not agree with you.

By the way I do not think the mere allegations against Franken are of a nature to drive him out of the Senate without a hearing.  I am not interested in engaging in a witch hunt for political heads.

Dude....Roy Moore bangs preteens

I am not saying actually abusing a 14 is nit illegal or very wrong.  But 14 is not preteen.  14 is not the age as defined for pedophelia.  You are entitled to your own opinion not your own definitions.

I am just letting the Senate be the final determiner.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 10, 2017, 01:23:46 AM
Let's just all agree on the term "kiddy diddler" ok? Also Ted Kennedy.

Ok with me.  But a huge number of people do not know what it means.  They might not google it.

Why don’t you just say what you claim he did.  You should also say he did it 40 years ago.

If someone killed someone 40 years ago, they're still a murderer.

Everyone but Ted Kennedy.

Oh! I forgot you are to young to be held responsible for him.  Bull! I holding you responsible.  

Oh it was not premedated.  Well it was cowardly and someone died.

I think a lot of Alabamans are feeling like me

An additionally I will not support someone who will use his first votes to shut down the government, if directed by his masters.
Ted Kennedy is dead. Ted Kennedy is not running for anything. Nobody is defending him. You defending your support for a pedophile that is currently, presently running for a seat in the US Senate because "muh Ted Kennedy" gets old.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 10, 2017, 02:07:58 AM
lmao, is the guy that can't go ten posts without screeching about Ted Kennedy and Chappaquiddick seriously using "it was forty years ago" as an excuse for Roy Moore?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Devout Centrist on December 10, 2017, 02:48:56 AM
You guys realize the whole goal of this exercise is to keep you on defense as long as possible?

There's really no point in arguing with a rambler


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Anna Komnene on December 10, 2017, 03:41:40 AM
Unless I have someone on ignore, I did not see one mention that Roy Moore announced that he's gonna sue the pants off these liars!!!!! If that doesn't confirm how absurd this is, nothing will!

I am officially announcing this afternoon I filed lawsuits against each of my false accusers for libel and or slander. And I will not settle, see you in court. #RoyMoore #Alabama #Senate #Election #RoyMooreSenate #MAGA #FakeNews

He did threaten to use his DA powers against them if they ever spoke up, so that's not surprising at all.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sorenroy on December 10, 2017, 04:41:04 AM
Everyone but Ted Kennedy. Oh! I forgot you are to young to be held responsible for him. Bull! I holding you responsible.

Seeing as the last time Kennedy pursued federal office was 1980, I think it's fair to assume Cal and the others on this forum played no part in his failed election bid. In fact, about 35% of the current national electorate wasn't even born when he ran and 2/3 of the electorate were younger than 18[1] (http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls). Add to that that less than 6% of people eligible to vote in 1960 voted for him and you would be lucky to find a single person on Atlas that voted Kennedy for president[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_1980)[3] (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/10/turnout-was-high-in-the-2016-primary-season-but-just-short-of-2008-record/).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 10, 2017, 05:01:27 AM
Everyone but Ted Kennedy. Oh! I forgot you are to young to be held responsible for him. Bull! I holding you responsible.

Seeing as the last time Kennedy pursued federal office was 1980, I think it's fair to assume Cal and the others on this forum played no part in his failed election bid. In fact, about 35% of the current national electorate wasn't even born when he ran and 2/3 of the electorate were younger than 18[1] (http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls). Add to that that less than 6% of people eligible to vote in 1960 voted for him and you would be lucky to find a single person on Atlas that voted Kennedy for president[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_1980)[3] (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/10/turnout-was-high-in-the-2016-primary-season-but-just-short-of-2008-record/).

Also I love how Arkansas Yankee apparently thinks the Senate would have expelled Ted Kennedy if a bunch of elementary school/middle school kids (fits most of us when he was last alive in 2009) screamed loud enough.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: JA on December 10, 2017, 05:54:51 AM
Alabama is a cesspool of racism and incest.

It’ll vote Roy Moore

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 10, 2017, 05:58:10 AM
Alabama would probably vote for someone's dog or cat, or perhaps even a ham sandwich, as long as it was listed with an (R) on the ballot.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 10, 2017, 08:55:11 AM
We've hit rock bottom people


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: OkThen on December 10, 2017, 08:57:03 AM
Anyone consider that this could go the way of MO in 2012? Polling overall really underestimated McCaskill's margin and underestimated the backlash against Akin.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 10, 2017, 09:03:30 AM
How about we wait for the election before sh!tting all over the basic decency of Alabamans?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 10, 2017, 09:12:36 AM
How about we wait for the election before sh!tting all over the basic decency of Alabamans?
That's fair. I'm just preparing myself for/accepting what is likely to happen. I cope with it by insulting Alabama and its people.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 10, 2017, 09:34:08 AM

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  

Can you please quote her lie? Video or text, doesn't matter. Thanks.



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: International Brotherhood of Bernard on December 10, 2017, 09:52:33 AM
Anyone consider that this could go the way of MO in 2012? Polling overall really underestimated McCaskill's margin and underestimated the backlash against Akin.

I think it's possible pollsters are herding towards Moore bc no one wants to be the dumbass who predicted a Dem would win in Alabama if Moore does pull it out (plus the fact that this race seems to have nothing but crap/questionable pollsters). But we shall find out Tuesday.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 10, 2017, 10:00:07 AM
From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: ursulahx on December 10, 2017, 10:14:27 AM
From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

From all that I’ve seen, whether it’s poll data, focus groups or individual anecdotes, this has all the markings of another Handel-Ossoff. It’s already a tough area, and the race has become nationalised. Higher postal turnout in all areas suggests both sides are getting fired up, which effectively results in stasis. I’m preparing to wake up disappointed on Wednesday morning.

(Note that I called Virginia completely wrong, but I’ve got to have a stopped clock moment at some point.)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 10, 2017, 10:18:20 AM
From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

From all that I’ve seen, whether it’s poll data, focus groups or individual anecdotes, this has all the markings of another Handel-Ossoff. It’s already a tough area, and the race has become nationalised. Higher postal turnout in all areas suggests both sides are getting fired up, which effectively results in stasis. I’m preparing to wake up disappointed on Wednesday morning.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 10, 2017, 10:27:34 AM
New Shelby comments:

Manu Raju @mkraju
Alabama's senior GOP senator, Richard Shelby, unloading on Roy Moore in intvw w @jaketapper: "When it came to the 14-year-old story, that was too much for me...I couldn't vote for Roy Moore...The state of Alabama deserves better...I think the Republican Party can do better."
9:08 AM · Dec 10, 2017

https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/939859384838041600


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 10, 2017, 10:31:08 AM
New Shelby comments:

Manu Raju @mkraju
Alabama's senior GOP senator, Richard Shelby, unloading on Roy Moore in intvw w @jaketapper: "When it came to the 14-year-old story, that was too much for me...I couldn't vote for Roy Moore...The state of Alabama deserves better...I think the Republican Party can do better."
9:08 AM · Dec 10, 2017

https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/939859384838041600

:D

Good for Shelby


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: SamTilden2020 on December 10, 2017, 10:46:47 AM
If I were an Alabama republican, I would write-in Strange. No vote for the (likely) pedo, and no vote for a Democrat. Problem solved.

From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

I'll give you Virginia. However, the Atlanta Mayor's race was won by about 700 votes in both 2009, and 2017 (little change there).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 10, 2017, 10:49:33 AM
New Shelby comments:

Manu Raju @mkraju
Alabama's senior GOP senator, Richard Shelby, unloading on Roy Moore in intvw w @jaketapper: "When it came to the 14-year-old story, that was too much for me...I couldn't vote for Roy Moore...The state of Alabama deserves better...I think the Republican Party can do better."
9:08 AM · Dec 10, 2017

https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/939859384838041600

:D

Good for Shelby

IIRC, Shelby and Flake (who donated $100 to Jones’ campaign) are the only two who have really been consistently vocal about denouncing Moore and encouraging Alabamans not to vote for him.  Maybe McCain too, don’t remember.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Anna Komnene on December 10, 2017, 11:15:24 AM
It's nice to see Shelby sticking with what he believes in. I imagine that he's been under a lot of pressure to switch back to Moore, but he hasn't done it. It's too bad that he can't just endorse Jones, but at least he won't support Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Jeppe on December 10, 2017, 11:27:27 AM
If I were an Alabama republican, I would write-in Strange. No vote for the (likely) pedo, and no vote for a Democrat. Problem solved.

From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

I'll give you Virginia. However, the Atlanta Mayor's race was won by about 700 votes in both 2009, and 2017 (little change there).


I think they meant that Norwood was leading by like 6 points in the last poll but ended up losing to the Democrat.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 10, 2017, 11:31:22 AM
OK. Question.

If Moore wins, and is expelled (which is very possible), who does Ivey appoint? Strange again?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 10, 2017, 11:33:28 AM
It's nice to see Shelby sticking with what he believes in. I imagine that he's been under a lot of pressure to switch back to Moore, but he hasn't done it. It's too bad that he can't just endorse Jones, but at least he won't support Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 10, 2017, 11:35:00 AM
If I were an Alabama republican, I would write-in Strange. No vote for the (likely) pedo, and no vote for a Democrat. Problem solved.

From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

I'll give you Virginia. However, the Atlanta Mayor's race was won by about 700 votes in both 2009, and 2017 (little change there).


I think they meant that Norwood was leading by like 6 points in the last poll but ended up losing to the Democrat.
And quite frankly, an added decade of gentrification and white movement back into the city should have been an easy Norwood win. Not the same result from a decade ago when AAs were a larger portion of the electorate.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: OneJ on December 10, 2017, 11:42:22 AM
If I were an Alabama republican, I would write-in Strange. No vote for the (likely) pedo, and no vote for a Democrat. Problem solved.



Possibly, the Alabama Republican voters are probably smarter than given credit for (although that may not say much). Maybe they think that if too many of them write another candidate in, they'll act as major spoilers and that will cause Jones, a f[inks]ing Democrat, to ultimately come out victorious.  Just a thought. :P


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 10, 2017, 11:43:46 AM
I feel like the fact that Moore is not on the campaign trail at all his final week (and barely was before) and that Jones is touring the state and commanding the airwaves and digital ads is underrated. Moore isn't giving people a reason to vote for him.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mcmikk on December 10, 2017, 11:47:25 AM
I feel like the fact that Moore is not on the campaign trail at all his final week (and barely was before) and that Jones is touring the state and commanding the airwaves and digital ads is underrated. Moore isn't giving people a reason to vote for him.
He doesn't need to. He has the Magic (R) next to his name. That will help him significantly, considering it's Alabama. Besides, everyone already knows who he is.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 10, 2017, 11:48:15 AM
If I were an Alabama republican, I would write-in Strange. No vote for the (likely) pedo, and no vote for a Democrat. Problem solved.

From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

I'll give you Virginia. However, the Atlanta Mayor's race was won by about 700 votes in both 2009, and 2017 (little change there).


I think they meant that Norwood was leading by like 6 points in the last poll but ended up losing to the Democrat.

Exactly what I meant.

I agree with mcmikk that nationalizing the race could well be negative, but the race isn't over till it's over. I doubt Jones wins, but refuse to give up hope.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Mr. Smith on December 10, 2017, 11:51:28 AM
I feel like the fact that Moore is not on the campaign trail at all his final week (and barely was before) and that Jones is touring the state and commanding the airwaves and digital ads is underrated. Moore isn't giving people a reason to vote for him.

Maybe, but I've noticed the right largely are happier voting against something than the left are. This allows a bit of ground when it comes to the need to explain what you stand for.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 10, 2017, 11:57:20 AM
I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Mr. Smith on December 10, 2017, 12:10:22 PM
I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

Not voting for Moore might hurt Jones though if the "sane, non-paedo vote" gets split.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 10, 2017, 12:10:58 PM
I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

Or just...you know...not show up to vote at all.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 10, 2017, 12:11:14 PM
UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says] (https://out.reddit.com/t3_7iux46?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Falabama-un-poverty-environmental-racism-743601&token=AQAAKXgtWqbvGpsqX_hc0Ua7Mrv-PRN9omij36uFrcW4ZXWWG1my&app_name=reddit.com)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 10, 2017, 12:12:53 PM
I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

Or just...you know...not show up to vote at all.

Yes, there are more than two options.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: rob in cal on December 10, 2017, 12:16:41 PM
  All of this could have been avoided had Trump gone all in for Mo Brooks in the primary, probably pushing him over the top to win the nomination.  Brooks is a low immigration advocate, party loyalist type who in hindsight was the safe choice from the beginning for Trump.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 10, 2017, 12:56:17 PM
I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

Or just...you know...not show up to vote at all.

Yes, there are more than two options.

I thought you were just referring to the write-ins, my bad.

 All of this could have been avoided had Trump gone all in for Mo Brooks in the primary, probably pushing him over the top to win the nomination.  Brooks is a low immigration advocate, party loyalist type who in hindsight was the safe choice from the beginning for Trump.

You know, it really shows just how much the Republicans have lost their way when you have folks longingly referring to the racist, misogynistic chief defender of a child molester who has spent a good month or so attacking said pedophile’s victims as “the safe choice.”  The fact that Brooks’ staunch support for Roy Moore, a man who under Alabama Law has literally sexually abused multiple people, is not an instant dealbreaker says quite a bit about you and none of it good.  This is one of those rare American elections where one side is objectively unambiguously evil.  This isn’t a case of good people getting caught up in something evil like it was with some of Trump’s supporters.  What this comes down to is whether Alabaman voters think child molestation is unacceptable.  I always try to give folks the benefit of the doubt, but anyone who still supports Roy Moore is simply a disgusting human being who - when push comes to shove - is perfectly willing to give a child molester a free pass out of amoral tribalism.  I won’t dismiss all Alabamans as evil folks if Moore wins, but the win or lose, his supporters are simply horrible people.  


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin on December 10, 2017, 01:01:50 PM
UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]
 (https://out.reddit.com/t3_7iux46?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Falabama-un-poverty-environmental-racism-743601&token=AQAAKXgtWqbvGpsqX_hc0Ua7Mrv-PRN9omij36uFrcW4ZXWWG1my&app_name=reddit.com)

This is what the GOP wants for our whole country. And it is what every single GOP member or supporter is enabling no matter what their motivation.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 10, 2017, 01:09:03 PM
UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]
 (https://out.reddit.com/t3_7iux46?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Falabama-un-poverty-environmental-racism-743601&token=AQAAKXgtWqbvGpsqX_hc0Ua7Mrv-PRN9omij36uFrcW4ZXWWG1my&app_name=reddit.com)

This is what the GOP wants for our whole country. And it is what every single GOP member or supporter is enabling no matter what their motivation.

You do realize Alabama has always been deeply poor, correct?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 10, 2017, 01:15:03 PM
UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]
 (https://out.reddit.com/t3_7iux46?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Falabama-un-poverty-environmental-racism-743601&token=AQAAKXgtWqbvGpsqX_hc0Ua7Mrv-PRN9omij36uFrcW4ZXWWG1my&app_name=reddit.com)

This is what the GOP wants for our whole country. And it is what every single GOP member or supporter is enabling no matter what their motivation.

You do realize Alabama has always been deeply poor, correct?

Don’t confront him it ruins his fragile narrative


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on December 10, 2017, 01:19:20 PM
UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]
 (https://out.reddit.com/t3_7iux46?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Falabama-un-poverty-environmental-racism-743601&token=AQAAKXgtWqbvGpsqX_hc0Ua7Mrv-PRN9omij36uFrcW4ZXWWG1my&app_name=reddit.com)

This is what the GOP wants for our whole country. And it is what every single GOP member or supporter is enabling no matter what their motivation.

You do realize Alabama has always been deeply poor, correct?

Don’t confront him it ruins his fragile narrative

It's pretty true. Alabama fails to invest in itself (education, infrastructure, etc.) because they keep voting for the most racist candidate they can find (southern democrats --> republicans). They continually vote in leaders that fail them (Like 3 of the Republicans they've voted in went to jail). It's mostly a pretty terrible state. I would know considering I live 10 minutes away from Alabama and go there somewhat often.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: JA on December 10, 2017, 01:32:55 PM
UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]
 (https://out.reddit.com/t3_7iux46?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Falabama-un-poverty-environmental-racism-743601&token=AQAAKXgtWqbvGpsqX_hc0Ua7Mrv-PRN9omij36uFrcW4ZXWWG1my&app_name=reddit.com)

This is what the GOP wants for our whole country. And it is what every single GOP member or supporter is enabling no matter what their motivation.

You do realize Alabama has always been deeply poor, correct?

You do realize that poverty is the result of policy choices, sociocultural factors, and, to an extent, circumstances, yes? The state hasn’t faced embargoes, war, foreign exploitation, or other similar economy draining forces. The rampant poverty in that state is interwoven into its fabric due to it’s history of institutional racism, rampant social and wealth inequality, and particular cultural factors that have been exploited by elites and political figures for their self-enrichment.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 10, 2017, 01:45:07 PM
Anyone consider that this could go the way of MO in 2012? Polling overall really underestimated McCaskill's margin and underestimated the backlash against Akin.

I think it's possible pollsters are herding towards Moore bc no one wants to be the dumbass who predicted a Dem would win in Alabama if Moore does pull it out (plus the fact that this race seems to have nothing but crap/questionable pollsters). But we shall find out Tuesday.

Yes, I agree with both of you. IMO this is definitely more likely to happen than many people here believe, and Moore is only ahead by 4 in the RCP polling average anyway.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 10, 2017, 01:52:42 PM
Anyone consider that this could go the way of MO in 2012? Polling overall really underestimated McCaskill's margin and underestimated the backlash against Akin.

I think it's possible pollsters are herding towards Moore bc no one wants to be the dumbass who predicted a Dem would win in Alabama if Moore does pull it out (plus the fact that this race seems to have nothing but crap/questionable pollsters). But we shall find out Tuesday.

Yes, I agree with both of you. IMO this is definitely more likely to happen than many people here believe, and Moore is only ahead by 4 in the RCP polling average anyway.
Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 10, 2017, 02:00:33 PM
Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.
Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 10, 2017, 02:06:41 PM
Anyone consider that this could go the way of MO in 2012? Polling overall really underestimated McCaskill's margin and underestimated the backlash against Akin.

I think it's possible pollsters are herding towards Moore bc no one wants to be the dumbass who predicted a Dem would win in Alabama if Moore does pull it out (plus the fact that this race seems to have nothing but crap/questionable pollsters). But we shall find out Tuesday.

Yes, I agree with both of you. IMO this is definitely more likely to happen than many people here believe, and Moore is only ahead by 4 in the RCP polling average anyway.

Agreed.  I wouldn't be surprised if Moore ended up winning, but at the same time, I'm still fairly confident Jones will win (as I have been ever since the Washington Post ran its first story about this).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 10, 2017, 02:15:12 PM
From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

I too believe in the Blue Wave. That's been my thinking. I don't think it will be a blow out for Jones, but he could pull through. Less than 3 days.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Mr. Smith on December 10, 2017, 02:17:33 PM
Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.
Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.

With all the headlines and hubbub, I wouldn't be so sure about that whole "low turnout" thing.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 10, 2017, 02:18:31 PM
Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.
Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.

With all the headlines and hubbub, I wouldn't be so sure about that whole "low turnout" thing.


The AL SoS office disagrees :P


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 10, 2017, 02:18:59 PM
  All of this could have been avoided had Trump gone all in for Mo Brooks in the primary, probably pushing him over the top to win the nomination.  Brooks is a low immigration advocate, party loyalist type who in hindsight was the safe choice from the beginning for Trump.

For the 100th time, Mo Brooks is not very popular in Alabama. He strongly opposed Trump in the primary, why would Trump endorse him now? Makes no sense, especially since Brooks isn’t very popular to begin with.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 10, 2017, 02:31:37 PM
Will there be any new polls released between now and tuesday?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 10, 2017, 03:21:30 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide. The best Jones has gotten is a small lead in that Washington Post poll.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 10, 2017, 03:23:17 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 10, 2017, 03:26:16 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 10, 2017, 03:29:26 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 10, 2017, 03:35:04 PM
To be fair, Gravis also hedged their bets. Their normal model showed Jones +2 but they also used a different one that shows Moore winning.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 10, 2017, 03:35:22 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

They're a pretty awful pollster. SUSA is far from perfect, but it is established and credible.

Also, Jones is only up that amount if you assume the electorate that turns out on Tuesday gives Trump a net negative approval rating. I wouldn't hold your breath on that one.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 10, 2017, 03:36:47 PM
Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 10, 2017, 03:39:48 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

The Washington Post also has Jones up 3, and even they underestimated Northam in VA.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 10, 2017, 03:41:05 PM
Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 10, 2017, 03:41:15 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.

Yes, but half of those models used 2016 vote weights. A decent number of respondents aren't going to honestly answer that they voted for a president with a 36% approval rating, so using self-reported presidential vote as a way to weigh the results is inherently going to marginalize regretful Trump voters that are more likely to vote for Jones.

There's a lot of uncertainty involved with polling a race like this, but the complete and utter pessimism that a lot of people here are infected with is unwarranted.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 10, 2017, 03:43:01 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.

Yes, but half of those models used 2016 vote weights. A decent number of respondents aren't going to honestly answer that they voted for a president with a 36% approval rating, so using self-reported presidential vote as a way to weigh the results is inherently going to marginalize regretful Trump voters that are more likely to vote for Jones.

There's a lot of uncertainty involved with polling a race like this, but the complete and utter pessimism that a lot of people here are infected with is unwarranted.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 10, 2017, 03:44:12 PM
A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.

People cherry pick to confirm their own narratives. Like LimoLiberal(R-VA) and the guy on RRH who posts only the best GCB and Trump approval polls that still are rough lol.

I'm not cherry-picking, you dingus, I'm using the model that SurveyMonkey themselves ended up going with. SurveyMonkey is obviously an outlier, and there's no way Jones is winning by eight, but it's still a data point.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 10, 2017, 03:47:14 PM
Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 10, 2017, 03:52:26 PM
Jones winning by 8 is pretty unlikely (though definitely within the realms of possibility), but I wouldn't simply dismiss the poll as junk (see also: Quinnipiac in VA). In fact, I would not be shocked if one of those "outliers" turned out to be pretty accurate in the end.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on December 10, 2017, 03:54:13 PM
Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.
lol this is so random.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 10, 2017, 03:55:54 PM
Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.
lol this is so random.

AP's test results appear fairly realistic for this race, though turnout seems too high. They should try to be more unrealistic in case anyone accidentally thinks the numbers are real.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: kyc0705 on December 10, 2017, 04:00:50 PM
Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.

what if this turns out to be the exact vote total


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on December 10, 2017, 04:02:37 PM
Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.
lol this is so random.

AP's test results appear fairly realistic for this race, though turnout seems too high. They should try to be more unrealistic in case anyone accidentally thinks the numbers are real.
I remember on Super Tuesday one of the networks published test data for exit polls before polls closed and some users seemed to believe the data was legit.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 10, 2017, 04:07:45 PM
Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.
Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.

With all the headlines and hubbub, I wouldn't be so sure about that whole "low turnout" thing.

Didn't the Alabama AG predict 20% turnout?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 10, 2017, 04:19:16 PM
Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.
Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.

With all the headlines and hubbub, I wouldn't be so sure about that whole "low turnout" thing.

Didn't the Alabama AG predict 20% turnout?

He started at 25%, lowered it to 20% due to voter "frustration and exhaustion", then raised it to "at least 25%" due to the very high absentee ballot requests.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on December 10, 2017, 04:27:13 PM
Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
I'll kill myself
Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.

what if this turns out to be the exact vote total


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 10, 2017, 04:27:45 PM
I can't believe three-quarters of the voting eligible populace just don't care at all. It's sad because it's the voters who are casting their ballot with hate, vengeance, and scorn in their hearts are the ones who care enough to go vote.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 10, 2017, 04:36:44 PM
Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

If Moore really did win by 5,000 votes I would be so disappointed.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 10, 2017, 04:39:38 PM
I'm kinda surprised no one has posted this yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A)

Luntz did a focus group consisting entirely of Roy Moore supporters and the results were...let's go with "interesting."  I'm still pretty sure Jones is gonna win, but Jesus F***ing Christ, there are some really sick people out there, to say the least.

There's a lot of scary stuff here and the whole thing is well worth watching, but these stood out to me in particular (each from different voters and for different reasons):

At 2:48: "40 years ago in Alabama, there's a lotta mommas and daddys that'd be thrilled their 14 year-old was gettin' hit on by a district attorney"

At 4:30: "This man [Moore] has more integrity than you can find in the entire Congress right now.  Don't fall for the George Soros assassination plan!" (because what good is a conspiracy theory without anti-Semitism?)

At 6:29 on why African-Americans don't vote Republican: "Well, in my opinion, they be stupid." (I don't know why, but this one also kinda stood out to me for whatever reason, probably the lack of self-awareness)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 10, 2017, 04:44:30 PM
I posted it on the first page of this thread. The comment about blacks not voting Republican because they are stupid was rather saddening.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 10, 2017, 04:45:21 PM
I'm kinda surprised no one has posted this yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A)

Luntz did a focus group consisting entirely of Roy Moore supporters and the results were...let's go with "interesting."  I'm still pretty sure Jones is gonna win, but Jesus F***ing Christ, there are some really sick people out there, to say the least.

There's a lot of scary stuff here and the whole thing is well worth watching, but these stood out to me in particular (each from different voters and for different reasons):

At 2:48: "40 years ago in Alabama, there's a lotta mommas and daddys that'd be thrilled their 14 year-old was gettin' hit on by a district attorney"

At 4:30: "This man [Moore] has more integrity than you can find in the entire Congress right now.  Don't fall for the George Soros assassination plan!" (because what good is a conspiracy theory without anti-Semitism?)

At 6:29 on why African-Americans don't vote Republican: "Well, in my opinion, they be stupid." (I don't know why, but this one also kinda stood out to me for whatever reason, probably the lack of self-awareness)


I saw something about that, but couldn't bring myself to watch it.

I'm assuming everyone there was saying stuff that was that horrendous?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 10, 2017, 04:51:24 PM
I posted it on the first page of this thread. The comment about blacks not voting Republican because they are stupid was rather saddening.

Yeah and Obama caused the racial division in Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 10, 2017, 04:54:50 PM
I posted it on the first page of this thread. The comment about blacks not voting Republican because they are stupid was rather saddening.

Usually the answer I hear from Republicans willing to be even more candid is that it's because the "Democrats give them free sh!t." Sometimes with the n-word throw in there.  Which to me sounds amazingly lacking in self-awareness.

To be fair, let's not act all high and mighty here. You hear the same things said about "dumb poor whites voting GOP because they are stupid" on this board and across the political world.

There is zero political empathy anymore. We assume people vote the way they do for the worst of reasons.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 10, 2017, 04:56:08 PM

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  

Can you please quote her lie? Video or text, doesn't matter. Thanks.



I was waiting for one of you to ask that. Thank you. I refer you to the leftist Bible the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/roy-moore-accuser-amends-part-of-her-account-about-inscription/2017/12/08/d7a8acd8-dc43-11e7-b1a8-62589434a581_story.html?utm_term=.c4b87f7918ac

In that article the author stated

“In her initial statement Nelson said that Moore had written the entire inscription in her yearbook. ‘He wrote in my yearbook as follows,’ “Nelson said ‘To a sweater and more beautiful girl I could not say Merry Christmas 1977.  Love Roy Moore, Olde Hickory House.’ “ “and he signed it ‘Roy Moore D.A.’”

Thus, she admitted she lied about Moore writing the second date and the restaurant name.

Earlier in the article the author noted that Nelson was not among the women the Post had interviewed.  I would say that is called distancing.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: heatcharger on December 10, 2017, 05:02:39 PM
Horrible that Grumps died and left us with Fuzzy Bear and Arkansas Confederate as our resident olds. We really do need to set age floors and ceilings.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: heatcharger on December 10, 2017, 05:05:45 PM
Horrible that Grumps died and left us with Fuzzy Bear and Arkansas Confederate as our resident olds. We really do need to set age floors and ceilings.
Crap did he really die? I was wondering where he's been.

I meant metaphorically. He's taken long breaks in the past, so I assume he's probably spending time with family and such.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 10, 2017, 05:19:38 PM

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  

Can you please quote her lie? Video or text, doesn't matter. Thanks.



I was waiting for one of you to ask that. Thank you. I refer you to the leftist Bible the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/roy-moore-accuser-amends-part-of-her-account-about-inscription/2017/12/08/d7a8acd8-dc43-11e7-b1a8-62589434a581_story.html?utm_term=.c4b87f7918ac

In that article the author stated

“In her initial statement Nelson said that Moore had written the entire inscription in her yearbook. ‘He wrote in my yearbook as follows,’ “Nelson said ‘To a sweater and more beautiful girl I could not say Merry Christmas 1977.  Love Roy Moore, Olde Hickory House.’ “ “and he signed it ‘Roy Moore D.A.’”

Thus, she admitted she lied about Moore writing the second date and the restaurant name.

Earlier in the article the author noted that Nelson was not among the women the Post had interviewed.  I would say that is called distancing.


So her "lie" was saying "Olde Hickory House" as she read out the inscription, including everything that was written and signed by Moore?

And that, to you, invalidates her claim and all of the other claims about Roy Moore's assaulting and pursuing young girls? 


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 10, 2017, 05:32:49 PM
Horrible that Grumps died and left us with Fuzzy Bear and Arkansas Confederate as our resident olds. We really do need to set age floors and ceilings.

*ahem*


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Suburbia on December 10, 2017, 05:38:43 PM
Most black people vote Democrat because of redistribution programs and the Civil Rights Act, and the belief that the GOP is hostile to them.

They are black Republicans as well, but they are seen as "sellouts" just because they believe in free enterprise, etc., respected military morale, etc.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 10, 2017, 05:42:03 PM

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  

Can you please quote her lie? Video or text, doesn't matter. Thanks.



I was waiting for one of you to ask that. Thank you. I refer you to the leftist Bible the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/roy-moore-accuser-amends-part-of-her-account-about-inscription/2017/12/08/d7a8acd8-dc43-11e7-b1a8-62589434a581_story.html?utm_term=.c4b87f7918ac

In that article the author stated

“In her initial statement Nelson said that Moore had written the entire inscription in her yearbook. ‘He wrote in my yearbook as follows,’ “Nelson said ‘To a sweater and more beautiful girl I could not say Merry Christmas 1977.  Love Roy Moore, Olde Hickory House.’ “ “and he signed it ‘Roy Moore D.A.’”

Thus, she admitted she lied about Moore writing the second date and the restaurant name.

Earlier in the article the author noted that Nelson was not among the women the Post had interviewed.  I would say that is called distancing.


So her "lie" was saying "Olde Hickory House" as she read out the inscription, including everything that was written and signed by Moore?

And that, to you, invalidates her claim and all of the other claims about Roy Moore's assaulting and pursuing young girls? 

Are you not thinking? The author said she said he had written the entire inscription.  He did not put that in quotes.  If you say the lack of quotes indicates that she was not implying the second date was written by him,  you are not thinking or analyzing very well. Why would he have ever written the date twice.

The question then arises to the signature and the D.A.  She obviously embellished  Did she embellish what he did to her?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: kyc0705 on December 10, 2017, 05:42:32 PM
Horrible that Grumps died and left us with Fuzzy Bear and Arkansas Confederate as our resident olds. We really do need to set age floors and ceilings.
Crap did he really die? I was wondering where he's been.

I meant metaphorically. He's taken long breaks in the past, so I assume he's probably spending time with family and such.

Actually, at least 30% of the user base here is dead, and posting online is one of our ghost hobbies. It explains why we don't seem to have souls or a sense of human empathy.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 10, 2017, 05:55:25 PM

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  

Can you please quote her lie? Video or text, doesn't matter. Thanks.



I was waiting for one of you to ask that. Thank you. I refer you to the leftist Bible the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/roy-moore-accuser-amends-part-of-her-account-about-inscription/2017/12/08/d7a8acd8-dc43-11e7-b1a8-62589434a581_story.html?utm_term=.c4b87f7918ac

In that article the author stated

“In her initial statement Nelson said that Moore had written the entire inscription in her yearbook. ‘He wrote in my yearbook as follows,’ “Nelson said ‘To a sweater and more beautiful girl I could not say Merry Christmas 1977.  Love Roy Moore, Olde Hickory House.’ “ “and he signed it ‘Roy Moore D.A.’”

Thus, she admitted she lied about Moore writing the second date and the restaurant name.

Earlier in the article the author noted that Nelson was not among the women the Post had interviewed.  I would say that is called distancing.


So her "lie" was saying "Olde Hickory House" as she read out the inscription, including everything that was written and signed by Moore?

And that, to you, invalidates her claim and all of the other claims about Roy Moore's assaulting and pursuing young girls? 

Are you not thinking? The author said she said he had written the entire inscription.  He did not put that in quotes.  If you say the lack of quotes indicates that she was not implying the second date was written by him,  you are not thinking or analyzing very well. Why would he have ever written the date twice.

The question then arises to the signature and the D.A.  She obviously embellished  Did she embellish what he did to her?

Again, I missed the quote where she said "he wrote the entire inscription." Can you help me find that? I see the paraphrase.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin on December 10, 2017, 06:28:41 PM

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  

Can you please quote her lie? Video or text, doesn't matter. Thanks.



I was waiting for one of you to ask that. Thank you. I refer you to the leftist Bible the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/roy-moore-accuser-amends-part-of-her-account-about-inscription/2017/12/08/d7a8acd8-dc43-11e7-b1a8-62589434a581_story.html?utm_term=.c4b87f7918ac

In that article the author stated

“In her initial statement Nelson said that Moore had written the entire inscription in her yearbook. ‘He wrote in my yearbook as follows,’ “Nelson said ‘To a sweater and more beautiful girl I could not say Merry Christmas 1977.  Love Roy Moore, Olde Hickory House.’ “ “and he signed it ‘Roy Moore D.A.’”

Thus, she admitted she lied about Moore writing the second date and the restaurant name.

Earlier in the article the author noted that Nelson was not among the women the Post had interviewed.  I would say that is called distancing.


So her "lie" was saying "Olde Hickory House" as she read out the inscription, including everything that was written and signed by Moore?

And that, to you, invalidates her claim and all of the other claims about Roy Moore's assaulting and pursuing young girls? 

Suspending disbelief like that is probably a lot easier if they have a thread or two to hang it by.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 10, 2017, 06:31:10 PM
Listen folks I do not live in Alabama.  I have not been there since the 90s.  My wife has a cousin who lives there.  I have not spoken to him.

If Jones loses, I believe you can pin the loss on Allred. She is the one who has raised the question of veracity so high. In my gut I believe it is possible she wants Moore to win to put the GOP on the spot.  But mostly I think she thinks she is helping. Poor deluded woman.

Stop spitting venom at me in relation to this race.  


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 10, 2017, 06:32:52 PM
Listen folks I do not live in Alabama.  I have not been there since the 90s.  My wife has a cousin who lives there.  I have not spoken to him.

If Jones loses, I believe you can pin the loss on Allred. She is the one who has raised the question of veracity so high. In my gut I believe it is possible she wants Moore to win to put the GOP on the spot.  But mostly I think she thinks she is helping. Poor deluded woman.

Stop spitting venom at me in relation to this race.  

"I'm wrong, but don't have the balls to admit it."


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on December 10, 2017, 06:33:43 PM
Listen folks I do not live in Alabama.  I have not been there since the 90s.  My wife has a cousin who lives there.  I have not spoken to him.

If Jones loses, I believe you can pin the loss on Allred. She is the one who has raised the question of veracity so high. In my gut I believe it is possible she wants Moore to win to put the GOP on the spot.  But mostly I think she thinks she is helping. Poor deluded woman.

Stop spitting venom at me in relation to this race.  
youll see
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 10, 2017, 06:35:37 PM
I posted it on the first page of this thread. The comment about blacks not voting Republican because they are stupid was rather saddening.

Usually the answer I hear from Republicans willing to be even more candid is that it's because the "Democrats give them free sh!t." Sometimes with the n-word throw in there.  Which to me sounds amazingly lacking in self-awareness.
Which is especially ironic considering nearly every white person I know who receives Government assistance voted for Trump.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Usili on December 10, 2017, 06:37:10 PM
So we had this wonderful thing about Moore that just came out: http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/10/politics/kfile-roy-moore-aroostook-watchmen/index.html

Basically saying to get rid of the amendments after the tenth to 'eliminate many problems', but specifically in that in terms of references of amendments, it was that of both the 14th and the 17th Amendments.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 10, 2017, 06:38:48 PM

We now know that Nelson has lied about the notations in the yearbook.  

Can you please quote her lie? Video or text, doesn't matter. Thanks.



I was waiting for one of you to ask that. Thank you. I refer you to the leftist Bible the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/roy-moore-accuser-amends-part-of-her-account-about-inscription/2017/12/08/d7a8acd8-dc43-11e7-b1a8-62589434a581_story.html?utm_term=.c4b87f7918ac

In that article the author stated

“In her initial statement Nelson said that Moore had written the entire inscription in her yearbook. ‘He wrote in my yearbook as follows,’ “Nelson said ‘To a sweater and more beautiful girl I could not say Merry Christmas 1977.  Love Roy Moore, Olde Hickory House.’ “ “and he signed it ‘Roy Moore D.A.’”

Thus, she admitted she lied about Moore writing the second date and the restaurant name.

Earlier in the article the author noted that Nelson was not among the women the Post had interviewed.  I would say that is called distancing.


So her "lie" was saying "Olde Hickory House" as she read out the inscription, including everything that was written and signed by Moore?

And that, to you, invalidates her claim and all of the other claims about Roy Moore's assaulting and pursuing young girls? 

Are you not thinking? The author said she said he had written the entire inscription.  He did not put that in quotes.  If you say the lack of quotes indicates that she was not implying the second date was written by him,  you are not thinking or analyzing very well. Why would he have ever written the date twice.

The question then arises to the signature and the D.A.  She obviously embellished  Did she embellish what he did to her?

Again, I missed the quote where she said "he wrote the entire inscription." Can you help me find that? I see the paraphrase.

Please do not involve yourself in mental gymnastics like that.  It is not becoming. Even the author of the article does not do that.  By distancing from her, he clearly shows he realizes the danger Nelson poses to Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 10, 2017, 06:43:17 PM
So we had this wonderful thing about Moore that just came out: http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/10/politics/kfile-roy-moore-aroostook-watchmen/index.html

Basically saying to get rid of the amendments after the tenth to 'eliminate many problems', but specifically in that in terms of references of amendments, it was that of both the 14th and the 17th Amendments.
Jones needs to run ads with this quote immediately.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 10, 2017, 06:45:55 PM
So we had this wonderful thing about Moore that just came out: http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/10/politics/kfile-roy-moore-aroostook-watchmen/index.html

Basically saying to get rid of the amendments after the tenth to 'eliminate many problems', but specifically in that in terms of references of amendments, it was that of both the 14th and the 17th Amendments.

Wait.

The Seventeenth gave the people the power to elect Senators over the state legislatures. Without it, Moore would never have a chance at being one.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 10, 2017, 06:48:37 PM
So we had this wonderful thing about Moore that just came out: http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/10/politics/kfile-roy-moore-aroostook-watchmen/index.html

Basically saying to get rid of the amendments after the tenth to 'eliminate many problems', but specifically in that in terms of references of amendments, it was that of both the 14th and the 17th Amendments.

Wait.

The Seventeenth gave the people the power to elect Senators over the state legislatures. Without it, Moore would never have a chance at being one.

Also, he's saying he's SPECIFICALLY AGAINST INCORPORATION. In other words, he thinks states should be able to violate your rights.

Agree with above. RUN ADS IMMEDIATELY.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 10, 2017, 06:48:57 PM
Democratic group American Bridge has a digital ad pushing Nick Saban as a write-in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRHVfIbeGpQ&feature=youtu.be

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/939977299516063744


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on December 10, 2017, 07:22:42 PM
Democratic group American Bridge has a digital ad pushing Nick Saban as a write-in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRHVfIbeGpQ&feature=youtu.be

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/939977299516063744

God dammit. Some Democrats are useless.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 10, 2017, 07:45:49 PM
Please do not involve yourself in mental gymnastics like that.  It is not becoming. Even the author of the article does not do that.  By distancing from her, he clearly shows he realizes the danger Nelson poses to Jones.

It's becoming clear that you lied about what she claimed or didn't claim at the initial press conference. If you lied about that, what else could you have lied about? Why should we believe your claim that you were assaulted as a teenager when you fudged the truth here?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 10, 2017, 07:56:16 PM
Democratic group American Bridge has a digital ad pushing Nick Saban as a write-in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRHVfIbeGpQ&feature=youtu.be

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/939977299516063744

God dammit. Some Democrats are useless.

You may not be able to get everyone who's on the fence about Moore to vote for Jones. As long as you can get them to not vote Moore, that's something of a win.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 10, 2017, 08:34:08 PM
I'm kinda surprised no one has posted this yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A)

Luntz did a focus group consisting entirely of Roy Moore supporters and the results were...let's go with "interesting."  I'm still pretty sure Jones is gonna win, but Jesus F***ing Christ, there are some really sick people out there, to say the least.

There's a lot of scary stuff here and the whole thing is well worth watching, but these stood out to me in particular (each from different voters and for different reasons):

At 2:48: "40 years ago in Alabama, there's a lotta mommas and daddys that'd be thrilled their 14 year-old was gettin' hit on by a district attorney"

At 4:30: "This man [Moore] has more integrity than you can find in the entire Congress right now.  Don't fall for the George Soros assassination plan!" (because what good is a conspiracy theory without anti-Semitism?)

At 6:29 on why African-Americans don't vote Republican: "Well, in my opinion, they be stupid." (I don't know why, but this one also kinda stood out to me for whatever reason, probably the lack of self-awareness)

Now you know why I have no faith in Alabama voters, and why nobody here should either.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 10, 2017, 08:50:54 PM
Democratic group American Bridge has a digital ad pushing Nick Saban as a write-in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRHVfIbeGpQ&feature=youtu.be

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/939977299516063744

God dammit. Some Democrats are useless.
Some people are never going to vote for a Democrat. But getting them not to vote for Moore helps Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 10, 2017, 09:09:25 PM
Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 10, 2017, 09:11:07 PM
I'm kinda surprised no one has posted this yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A)

Luntz did a focus group consisting entirely of Roy Moore supporters and the results were...let's go with "interesting."  I'm still pretty sure Jones is gonna win, but Jesus F***ing Christ, there are some really sick people out there, to say the least.

There's a lot of scary stuff here and the whole thing is well worth watching, but these stood out to me in particular (each from different voters and for different reasons):

At 2:48: "40 years ago in Alabama, there's a lotta mommas and daddys that'd be thrilled their 14 year-old was gettin' hit on by a district attorney"

At 4:30: "This man [Moore] has more integrity than you can find in the entire Congress right now.  Don't fall for the George Soros assassination plan!" (because what good is a conspiracy theory without anti-Semitism?)

At 6:29 on why African-Americans don't vote Republican: "Well, in my opinion, they be stupid." (I don't know why, but this one also kinda stood out to me for whatever reason, probably the lack of self-awareness)

Now you know why I have no faith in Alabama voters, and why nobody here should either.

Like I said, still pretty confident Jones is gonna win.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 10, 2017, 09:14:25 PM
Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control

Emerson Poll Podcast‏ @EmersonPodcast
New @emersonpolling -> One candidate TAKES CONTROL in #ALSen - Has Doug Jones completed the COMEBACK v #RoyMoore ? Find out Monday morning on the podcast | SUBSCRIBE:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPodcast/status/939914880316002304


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 10, 2017, 09:15:03 PM
Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control

Emerson Poll Podcast‏ @EmersonPodcast
New @emersonpolling -> One candidate TAKES CONTROL in #ALSen - Has Doug Jones completed the COMEBACK v #RoyMoore ? Find out Monday morning on the podcast | SUBSCRIBE:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPodcast/status/939914880316002304

I hate this.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Mr. Smith on December 10, 2017, 09:16:50 PM
Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control

Emerson Poll Podcast‏ @EmersonPodcast
New @emersonpolling -> One candidate TAKES CONTROL in #ALSen - Has Doug Jones completed the COMEBACK v #RoyMoore ? Find out Monday morning on the podcast | SUBSCRIBE:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPodcast/status/939914880316002304

Blatant poll herding...even crazier than the +3 Gillespie polls last month


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 10, 2017, 09:17:09 PM
Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control

Emerson Poll Podcast‏ @EmersonPodcast
New @emersonpolling -> One candidate TAKES CONTROL in #ALSen - Has Doug Jones completed the COMEBACK v #RoyMoore ? Find out Monday morning on the podcast | SUBSCRIBE:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPodcast/status/939914880316002304

I hate this.

It will all be over soon. :)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 10, 2017, 09:19:29 PM
What year will Moore become Senate Minority Leader, do we think? 2021 if McConnell retires?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 10, 2017, 09:22:21 PM
What year will Moore become Senate Minority Leader, do we think? 2021 if McConnell retires?

Never.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 10, 2017, 09:23:55 PM
What year will Moore become Senate Minority Leader, do we think? 2021 if McConnell retires?

Never.

You think he'll be majority leader?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 10, 2017, 10:08:22 PM
Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control

Emerson Poll Podcast‏ @EmersonPodcast
New @emersonpolling -> One candidate TAKES CONTROL in #ALSen - Has Doug Jones completed the COMEBACK v #RoyMoore ? Find out Monday morning on the podcast | SUBSCRIBE:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPodcast/status/939914880316002304

Blatant poll herding...even crazier than the +3 Gillespie polls last month

Isnt it teasing a Jones comeback?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 10, 2017, 10:09:16 PM
()

I like this photo; it’s very badass.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 10, 2017, 10:11:13 PM
()

I like this photo; it’s very badass.
Doug Jones is very badass. I like to imagine he's a strict yet tender daddy dom.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 10, 2017, 10:11:37 PM
Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control

Emerson Poll Podcast‏ @EmersonPodcast
New @emersonpolling -> One candidate TAKES CONTROL in #ALSen - Has Doug Jones completed the COMEBACK v #RoyMoore ? Find out Monday morning on the podcast | SUBSCRIBE:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPodcast/status/939914880316002304

Molestin' Moore is finished. Back to the malls ye go


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Jeppe on December 10, 2017, 10:17:20 PM
I think Sue Bell Cobb would've had this race in the bag at this point, too bad she's running for Governor. I think Jones is going to pull off a narrow win due to turnout among Republicans sharply declining.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 10, 2017, 10:20:47 PM
()

I like this photo; it’s very badass.

I like to imagine they're guarding a mall

(jk jk)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 10, 2017, 10:27:40 PM
Oh

Quote
Some pro-Moore groups are taking an even more pointed approach to energize conservatives. One Moore-aligned group, Restore Our Godly Heritage PAC, is airing commercials on nearly 60 stations around the state accusing Jones of “trying to steal the election with vile, racist ads on black radio.”

“Desperate to steal this Senate race, Jones and his race-hustling allies are trying to start a race war and it’s only going to get worse in the final weekend, with millions of dollars in street money to turn out the vote,” it adds.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/10/roy-moore-alabama-philadelphia-football-army-navy-288861


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 10, 2017, 10:29:55 PM
Oh

Quote
Some pro-Moore groups are taking an even more pointed approach to energize conservatives. One Moore-aligned group, Restore Our Godly Heritage PAC, is airing commercials on nearly 60 stations around the state accusing Jones of “trying to steal the election with vile, racist ads on black radio.”

“Desperate to steal this Senate race, Jones and his race-hustling allies are trying to start a race war and it’s only going to get worse in the final weekend, with millions of dollars in street money to turn out the vote,” it adds.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/10/roy-moore-alabama-philadelphia-football-army-navy-288861
This won't have much of an impact, but this is truly deplorable.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Virginiá on December 10, 2017, 10:31:32 PM
Oh

Quote
Some pro-Moore groups are taking an even more pointed approach to energize conservatives. One Moore-aligned group, Restore Our Godly Heritage PAC, is airing commercials on nearly 60 stations around the state accusing Jones of “trying to steal the election with vile, racist ads on black radio.”

“Desperate to steal this Senate race, Jones and his race-hustling allies are trying to start a race war and it’s only going to get worse in the final weekend, with millions of dollars in street money to turn out the vote,” it adds.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/10/roy-moore-alabama-philadelphia-football-army-navy-288861
This won't have much of an impact, but this is truly deplorable.

“Desperate to steal this Senate race"

Do they even know what 'steal' means?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 10, 2017, 10:33:53 PM
I have about changed course.

I thought Moore could be expelled for denying writing part of the yearbook notation.  I believe he wrote the potion below the signature.  Still think there is a strong possibility Nelson manufactured the signature. After some research I have found that almost nothing during a campaign, except corruption can get a Senator expelled. I guess that is best.  If lying was a grounds, there would be no one in the Senate.

I am not sure there would even be grounds for an ethics hearing.  Would he lie under oath?

Moore is a nut.  I do not want him in the Senate. I also think he is mean personally and publicly. I hate Bannon.

I would now join Senator Shelby in casting a write in vote.

If people like me change, Jones may have a chance.  He needs to run ads that Moore, if elected, can not be expelled.

I do think you should have run a true Blue Dog.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 10, 2017, 10:37:13 PM
Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control

Emerson Poll Podcast‏ @EmersonPodcast
New @emersonpolling -> One candidate TAKES CONTROL in #ALSen - Has Doug Jones completed the COMEBACK v #RoyMoore ? Find out Monday morning on the podcast | SUBSCRIBE:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPodcast/status/939914880316002304

I hate this.
Right? Just release the goddamn poll. We’re not advertising the Super Bowl.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 10, 2017, 10:42:05 PM
Oh

Quote
Some pro-Moore groups are taking an even more pointed approach to energize conservatives. One Moore-aligned group, Restore Our Godly Heritage PAC, is airing commercials on nearly 60 stations around the state accusing Jones of “trying to steal the election with vile, racist ads on black radio.”

“Desperate to steal this Senate race, Jones and his race-hustling allies are trying to start a race war and it’s only going to get worse in the final weekend, with millions of dollars in street money to turn out the vote,” it adds.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/10/roy-moore-alabama-philadelphia-football-army-navy-288861

That was nightmarish from start to finish, damn.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 10, 2017, 10:55:43 PM
Moore by single digits, but there's about a 30% chance that Jones shocks the world and wins. Democrats should call for Moore's explusion and Alabama's secession, unless Jones wins of course.
What would be the grounds for expulsion?  


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 10, 2017, 10:57:39 PM
Moore by single digits, but there's about a 30% chance that Jones shocks the world and wins. Democrats should call for Moore's explusion and Alabama's secession, unless Jones wins of course.
What be the grounds for expulsion? 

67.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 10, 2017, 11:04:17 PM
Bright side for all of you, if Moore, would be a mill around the GOP’s neck,


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 10, 2017, 11:10:18 PM
Just shows to show the arrogance of Alabama Republics that they think an Alabama Senate race belongs to them automatically so if Democrats win they 'stole' the race.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 10, 2017, 11:11:53 PM
Bright side for all of you, if Moore, would be a mill around the GOP’s neck,

True.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tx_Longhorn on December 10, 2017, 11:33:49 PM
What would the race look like if Jones ran as a pro-life Democrat?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on December 10, 2017, 11:38:21 PM
What would the race look like if Jones ran as a pro-life Democrat?
Maybe a 1% or 2% better at best but not much more so. The election seems to be coming down to whether voters believe the allegations against Roy Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 10, 2017, 11:38:58 PM
What would the race look like if Jones ran as a pro-life Democrat?
He does maybe 1-2% better, at most. I really think Jones has run a nearly flawless campaign, and if he loses, the blame lies solely on Alabama being too deeply Republican.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hydera on December 10, 2017, 11:41:33 PM
What would the race look like if Jones ran as a pro-life Democrat?


Doug Jones losing by 3-8% to winning by 1-3%.

I'm mainly basing this on Alabama being more white than neighboring Louisiana by 6% so if you assume Bel Edward's win and put Alabama demographics and the different political history between the two states then probably Doug Jones winning by 1-3%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 10, 2017, 11:42:51 PM
 Molestin' Moore is even more batshìt than previously thought:

Report: Roy Moore quoted Hitler, questioned 9/11 attacks in 2011 interviews
 (https://out.reddit.com/t3_7izloe?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.al.com%2Fnews%2Findex.ssf%2F2017%2F12%2Freport_roy_moore_quoted_hitler.html&token=AQAATRouWuSCQ5IeSg-3_Pk5PBpB-FdiPY1UuD62UY-8QxuUZCgM&app_name=reddit.com)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Young Conservative on December 11, 2017, 12:25:11 AM
What would the race look like if Jones ran as a pro-life Democrat?


Doug Jones losing by 3-8% to winning by 1-3%.

I'm mainly basing this on Alabama being more white than neighboring Louisiana by 6% so if you assume Bel Edward's win and put Alabama demographics and the different political history between the two states then probably Doug Jones winning by 1-3%.
This race would not even be close if Doug Jones was actually moderate and was profile. He would win by 5 or more.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 11, 2017, 12:36:57 AM
What would the race look like if Jones ran as a pro-life Democrat?
Maybe a 1% or 2% better at best but not much more so. The election seems to be coming down to whether voters believe the allegations against Roy Moore.

Moore's reason for not debating Jones was his position that Trans people have rights; I don't think it would make a huge difference if Jones was pro-life. There would be reasons to hate Jones regardless of his abortion positions. 1-2% sounds about right. I'd err towards 1%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 11, 2017, 12:48:51 AM
If Moore actually blows this, I really think it'll be more akin to a death by a thousand cuts aided by the assault deathblow in November. Even before he turned out to be a pedophiliac freak, he was a proven loser prone to saying plenty of wacky s**t anathema even to Alabamans, like the 9/11 gaffes.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 11, 2017, 12:59:29 AM
I've heard through the grapevines from someone who was in the know about VA polls before they released that there's a good poll for Jones releasing tomorrow. Could be the Emerson one?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: YPestis25 on December 11, 2017, 01:02:29 AM
I've heard through the grapevines from someone who was in the know about VA polls before they released that there's a good poll for Jones releasing tomorrow. Could be the Emerson one?

I wonder if it's the SUSA one someone was posting about earlier.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 11, 2017, 01:16:54 AM
I've heard through the grapevines from someone who was in the know about VA polls before they released that there's a good poll for Jones releasing tomorrow. Could be the Emerson one?

I wonder if it's the SUSA one someone was posting about earlier.

Either one would be fantastic news for Jones, considering Emerson and SUSA both lean Republican (Emerson more dramatically).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 11, 2017, 01:19:06 AM
Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 11, 2017, 01:20:33 AM
Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.

I seem to recall that they gave way too much benefit of the doubt to Rossi, Buck, and Angle in late 2010, but don't quote me on that. It's been a while.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 11, 2017, 01:27:41 AM
I've heard through the grapevines from someone who was in the know about VA polls before they released that there's a good poll for Jones releasing tomorrow. Could be the Emerson one?

I wonder if it's the SUSA one someone was posting about earlier.

Looks like that was just someone mixing up SUSA with SurveyMonkey unfortunately.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: YPestis25 on December 11, 2017, 01:34:19 AM
I've heard through the grapevines from someone who was in the know about VA polls before they released that there's a good poll for Jones releasing tomorrow. Could be the Emerson one?

I wonder if it's the SUSA one someone was posting about earlier.

Looks like that was just someone mixing up SUSA with SurveyMonkey unfortunately.

Rip. Well unless we get a surprise quality poster tomorrow, guess we'll be settling for Emerson.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 11, 2017, 01:49:26 AM
Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.


Holmes, could it be a fox poll? Fox has been pretty friendly for Jones


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 11, 2017, 01:56:58 AM
Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.


Holmes, could it be a fox poll? Fox has been pretty friendly for Jones

I don't know. I said everything I heard.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 11, 2017, 02:00:17 AM
Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.


Holmes, could it be a fox poll? Fox has been pretty friendly for Jones

I don't know. I said everything I heard.

Is this a 100% legit source or could you be being mislead?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 11, 2017, 02:39:47 AM
I have about changed course.

I thought Moore could be expelled for denying writing part of the yearbook notation.  I believe he wrote the potion below the signature.  Still think there is a strong possibility Nelson manufactured the signature. After some research I have found that almost nothing during a campaign, except corruption can get a Senator expelled. I guess that is best.  If lying was a grounds, there would be no one in the Senate.

I am not sure there would even be grounds for an ethics hearing.  Would he lie under oath?

Moore is a nut.  I do not want him in the Senate. I also think he is mean personally and publicly. I hate Bannon.

I would now join Senator Shelby in casting a write in vote.

If people like me change, Jones may have a chance.  He needs to run ads that Moore, if elected, can not be expelled.

I do think you should have run a true Blue Dog.


There's Hope for everyone I guess

And In fairness oh, do you really think it would make a difference to 99% of more voters? I mean Christ, Trump called the man who spent his entire career enforcing the law rather than breaking it like his closest Chums and Roy Moore " bad on crime". We can run Richard Shelby changing back to a Democrat tomorrow and 99% of more voters would just consider him another Democrat who would support liberalism.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 11, 2017, 04:02:53 AM
Moore won Etowah county in 2012 but it gave him some pretty weak numbers, especially for his home base. Since then, with the allegations, I would keep a close eye on that one Tuesday.

Yeah, and not only then, but it gave him a pathetic showing in the GOP primary run-off as well (57%). He did do pretty well there in the three-way in August, though (51%), but picked up less than half of the non-Moore/non-Strange vote in the run-off. In fact, he significantly under-performed IMO throughout most of rural NE AL.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 11, 2017, 08:42:16 AM
The Hitler quote thing does need some context guys... he didn't mean it in a good way.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 11, 2017, 08:49:31 AM
Emerson shows Moore reopening a lead of 9 points over Jones. Now, Emerson has always shown the biggest leads for Moore, but that's pretty sizable for the day before Election Day.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 11, 2017, 09:06:43 AM
Credit were credit is due Icespear called this dead to rights


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 11, 2017, 09:08:22 AM
Credit were credit is due Icespear called this dead to rights

The election hasnt actually happend yet.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 11, 2017, 09:09:08 AM
Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 11, 2017, 09:09:55 AM
Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Yeah, that might actually hurt Jones in most parts of Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America Needs R'hllor on December 11, 2017, 09:16:05 AM
“No matter how much money he’s got, he’s still going to the same place that people who don’t recognize God and morality and accept his salvation are going,” Moore said of Soros in an interview on American Family Radio earlier this week. “And that’s not a good place.”

That a**hole is an antisemite, as well. Seriously, there is NO justification to support Roy Moore- any one who endorses him is a pedopilia and sexual assault apologist, and endorses extreme, hateful homophobia and antisemitism.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 11, 2017, 10:07:42 AM
If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 11, 2017, 10:13:14 AM
Fox New has Jones up by 10.

Interesting if they are right.  They base it on Democrat enthusiasm.  I think they may be right.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/11/fox-news-poll-enthused-democrats-give-jones-lead-over-moore-in-alabama.html


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: SteveRogers on December 11, 2017, 10:15:52 AM
If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.
I feel confident in predicting that the final result will be somewhere between these two polls.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 11, 2017, 10:19:57 AM
If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.
I feel confident in predicting that the final result will be somewhere between these two polls.

At this point, I'm not even confident in that. :)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America Needs R'hllor on December 11, 2017, 10:24:22 AM
Moving it from Lean to Likely D. Jones wins by 6.

That's... Bold.
Moving it from likely R to lean R, myself.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 11, 2017, 10:29:05 AM
Quote
For those wondering, there are at least two more Alabama polls coming later today. Stay thirsty, my friends.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/940241706422808577


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pyro on December 11, 2017, 10:29:15 AM
If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I am extremely ready for this election to be over.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 11, 2017, 10:47:25 AM
Hang on, why are we shifting our estimates towards Jones? Just because of Fox?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 11, 2017, 10:52:42 AM
If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I am extremely ready for this election to be over.

Just try living here.. I can't wait for the constant commercials, phone calls, mail, etc. to stop.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on December 11, 2017, 11:00:34 AM
Hang on, why are we shifting our estimates towards Jones? Just because of Fox?
Fox polls usually favor the republican slightly, so the fact Jones is up by nearly double digits in a poll by them is extremely good news for liberals, and most people on this site are liberals. Of course, overall these past two polls haven't changed the average, my best guess is that it was 2 polls in highly democratic or republican areas.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Horus on December 11, 2017, 11:04:56 AM
Hang on, why are we shifting our estimates towards Jones? Just because of Fox?
Fox polls usually favor the republican slightly, so the fact Jones is up by nearly double digits in a poll by them is extremely good news for liberals, and most people on this site are liberals. Of course, overall these past two polls haven't changed the average, my best guess is that it was 2 polls in highly democratic or republican areas.

I thought FOX polls actually favored the Dem slightly, at least last year.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 11, 2017, 11:12:32 AM
Hang on, why are we shifting our estimates towards Jones? Just because of Fox?
Fox polls usually favor the republican slightly, so the fact Jones is up by nearly double digits in a poll by them is extremely good news for liberals, and most people on this site are liberals. Of course, overall these past two polls haven't changed the average, my best guess is that it was 2 polls in highly democratic or republican areas.

I thought FOX polls actually favored the Dem slightly, at least last year.

Fox polls conducted by Anderson & Shaw (as in this case) are rated A by 538 with a bias of D+0.4.  538 also has an entry for Fox polls conducted by Opinion Dynamics, which is rated B and R+0.5.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 11, 2017, 11:13:21 AM
If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I am extremely ready for this election to be over.

Just try living here.. I can't wait for the constant commercials, phone calls, mail, etc. to stop.

Those of us in metro Atlanta sympathize (#ga06).  Cheer up, it will all be over soon. :)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 11, 2017, 11:28:45 AM
Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.


Holmes, could it be a fox poll? Fox has been pretty friendly for Jones

Hey marty, it was Fox after all. :P


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gustaf on December 11, 2017, 11:34:30 AM
I guess the nice thing for Democrats is that the few high quality polls we've seen have had Jones ahead, right?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tx_Longhorn on December 11, 2017, 11:39:56 AM
Is it true that the poll was 44R-42D? That seems like an unlikely composition of the expected electorate, no? But regardless, maybe there is some hope after all...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 11, 2017, 11:42:29 AM
Where is StatesPoll? He was right about everything.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gustaf on December 11, 2017, 11:43:41 AM
Yeah it's a turnout game. Jones wins if turnout patterns are such that the electorate is significantly less Republican than usual. Whether that happens is anyone's guess really.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 11, 2017, 11:45:16 AM
Is it true that the poll was 44R-42D? That seems like an unlikely composition of the expected electorate, no? But regardless, maybe there is some hope after all...

The way I could buy this electorate is that there may just be enough doubt among Republican voters for them to stay home rather than risk voting for an alleged pedophile.

This described behavior is what white privilege looks like.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 11, 2017, 12:35:39 PM
Good god, I just read some of the comment section on the predictit page for this race.....what a dumpster fire


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 11, 2017, 12:45:00 PM
Good god, I just read some of the comment section on the predictit page for this race.....what a dumpster fire

My rule #1 about trading, never read the comment board.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 11, 2017, 12:59:53 PM
Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 11, 2017, 01:04:24 PM
Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Byrne wouldn't be terrible. He would run particularly strong in south Alabama. I'm not entirely sure who the strongest Republican would be.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Del Tachi on December 11, 2017, 01:04:32 PM
Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Either Rob Aderholt or Martha Roby won't have a district to run in after 2020 Census results in Alabama losing a seat.

So I say one of them, Roby might not be able to win a statewide GOP primary in Trump's Alabama though.

EDIT:  Well, actually 2020 redistricting won't take effect until 2022 which will see an election to Alabama's other Senate seat.  Shelby probably retires so they'll probably wait until then actually.




Anyway, this thing is way too volatile to predict with any kind of certainty.  Turnout is going to be the deciding factor.  I would say that the range of outcomes ranges from Moore +8 to Jones +4, so slight advantage to Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: cp on December 11, 2017, 01:08:32 PM
When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 11, 2017, 01:13:53 PM
If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I am extremely ready for this election to be over.

Just try living here.. I can't wait for the constant commercials, phone calls, mail, etc. to stop.

Now you know how those of us in swing states feel, especially when there's multiple competitive races at once. :P


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 11, 2017, 01:14:26 PM
When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

No idea.  I'm not even sure we know who they're from.  Hopefully at least one will be a high-quality pollster and not some nocturnal aviation company.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 11, 2017, 01:16:23 PM
Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Byrne wouldn't be terrible. He would run particularly strong in south Alabama. I'm not entirely sure who the strongest Republican would be.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well, and Jones really needs to do well in Mobile and Baldwin County in 2020. I'd be okay with Aderholt as well, but I don't think Roby could win the primary (or the GE, for that matter) after what happened in 2016.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on December 11, 2017, 01:17:59 PM
When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

No idea.  I'm not even sure we know who they're from.  Hopefully at least one will be a high-quality pollster and not some nocturnal aviation company.
One of them is apparently from Change Research not sure who the other one is from.

 https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/940261663835537409 (https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/940261663835537409)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 11, 2017, 01:18:49 PM
Byrne’s also not completely insane, so I don’t see how he wins a primary.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 11, 2017, 01:25:38 PM
Have all 6 GOP reps endorsed Moore btw?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 11, 2017, 01:26:19 PM
Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Byrne wouldn't be terrible. He would run particularly strong in south Alabama. I'm not entirely sure who the strongest Republican would be.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well, and Jones really needs to do well in Mobile and Baldwin County in 2020. I'd be okay with Aderholt as well, but I don't think Roby could win the primary (or the GE, for that matter) after what happened in 2016.

Personally, I'm not a fan of Aderholt. I would have no problem with Roby but I doubt she could win the primary,


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 11, 2017, 01:33:32 PM
If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

God, this election is going to give me an aneurysm


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 11, 2017, 01:40:44 PM
Of the two polls still coming out, I am not joking, one of them just announced that it could be a narrow lead for Moore, a tie, or a narrow lead for Jones (Monmouth.)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 11, 2017, 01:41:13 PM
Of the two polls still coming out, I am not joking, one of them just announced that it could be a narrow lead for Moore, a tie, or a narrow lead for Jones (Monmouth.)

Hedge Hedge Hedge!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 11, 2017, 01:41:42 PM
Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 11, 2017, 01:42:34 PM
So, Monmouth is completely useless...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 11, 2017, 01:43:58 PM
Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

They have their lists of voters. I guarantee this will only go to African American voters.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 11, 2017, 01:44:28 PM
Of the two polls still coming out, I am not joking, one of them just announced that it could be a narrow lead for Moore, a tie, or a narrow lead for Jones (Monmouth.)

Here's the Monmouth poll: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AL_121117/ (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AL_121117/)

With 2017-based turnout model:

Jones 46
Moore 46

With higher turnout:

Jones 48
Moore 45

With lower historical turnout:

Moore 48
Jones 44


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 11, 2017, 01:46:50 PM
Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

They have their lists of voters. I guarantee this will only go to African American voters.

I can only hope you're right. They probably should've waited until tomorrow though, so Republicans wouldn't have any time to fearmonger against the Kenyan Mooselum and whip the Racist AL Hicks into a frenzy.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: cp on December 11, 2017, 01:47:18 PM
Of the two polls still coming out, I am not joking, one of them just announced that it could be a narrow lead for Moore, a tie, or a narrow lead for Jones (Monmouth.)

Here's the Monmouth poll: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AL_121117/ (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AL_121117/)

With 2017-based turnout model:

Jones 46
Moore 46

With higher turnout:

Jones 48
Moore 45

With lower historical turnout:

Moore 48
Jones 44

This could not be more unhelpful at this point.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 11, 2017, 01:49:28 PM
Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

They have their lists of voters. I guarantee this will only go to African American voters.

I can only hope you're right. They probably should've waited until tomorrow though, so Republicans wouldn't have any time to fearmonger against the Kenyan Mooselum and whip the Racist AL Hicks into a frenzy.

True, but the Moore campaign is essentially nonexistent. He was in Philadelphia on Saturday for the Army-Navy game!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 11, 2017, 01:51:55 PM
Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

They have their lists of voters. I guarantee this will only go to African American voters.

I can only hope you're right. They probably should've waited until tomorrow though, so Republicans wouldn't have any time to fearmonger against the Kenyan Mooselum and whip the Racist AL Hicks into a frenzy.

True, but the Moore campaign is essentially nonexistent. He was in Philadelphia on Saturday for the Army-Navy game!

I'm really glad I don't have any young daughters right now.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 11, 2017, 01:54:50 PM
FF Gwen Moore:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/364270-dem-lawmaker-calls-for-extra-protections-to-safeguard-senate-pages-if-roy


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: LabourJersey on December 11, 2017, 01:56:13 PM
Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Lol, Democrats really suck at politics sometimes. Will we be getting Pelosi robocalls next?

If Robocalls are targetted I don't see how that proves the Democrats "really suck". But continue with your narrative


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 11, 2017, 01:56:37 PM
Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Well, I doubt any Republican will stand a chance against Moore in the primary, unless he gets expelled. I doubt Jones runs again in 2020 either.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 11, 2017, 01:59:29 PM
When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

No idea.  I'm not even sure we know who they're from.  Hopefully at least one will be a high-quality pollster and not some nocturnal aviation company.
One of them is apparently from Change Research not sure who the other one is from.

 https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/940261663835537409 (https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/940261663835537409)

Quote
Our new poll shows Roy Moore now ahead 51-44. Moore leads among those who recently decided, 61-22. And the word late deciders most often use in describing how they make their decision? It's not "allegations" or "teenage" -- it's "Democrat."

Satan (R) over Jesus (D) confirmed.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 11, 2017, 01:59:49 PM
Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Well, I doubt any Republican will stand a chance against Moore in the primary, unless he gets expelled. I doubt Jones runs again in 2020 either.

That question has a Jones wins assumption, and if that was a sarcastic answer, it's not funny.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 11, 2017, 02:03:10 PM
I can only hope you're right. They probably should've waited until tomorrow though, so Republicans wouldn't have any time to fearmonger against the Kenyan Mooselum and whip the Racist AL Hicks into a frenzy.

Those voters were never going to vote for Jones in the first place.

He's speaking in terms of turnout.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 11, 2017, 02:03:27 PM
Quote
https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/940261663835537409 (https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/940261663835537409)

Quote
Our new poll shows Roy Moore now ahead 51-44. Moore leads among those who recently decided, 61-22. And the word late deciders most often use in describing how they make their decision? It's not "allegations" or "teenage" -- it's "Democrat."

Satan (R) over Jesus (D) confirmed.

Note that "our new poll" is last Friday's poll, not a new one.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 11, 2017, 02:18:39 PM
Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject
Michael McDonald Retweeted Bridget Bowman
This seems too low to me. I hope Alabama election officials are preparing for higher turnout
 
@bridgetbhc
AL Secretary of State John Merrill says on NPR that he’s expecting  at least 25% turnout in tomorrow’s election #ALSEN
1:37 PM - 11 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/940289520729231361


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on December 11, 2017, 02:26:01 PM
Does anyone know if their will be an exit poll released tomorrow?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 11, 2017, 02:33:40 PM
Does anyone know if their will be an exit poll released tomorrow?

Steven Shepard from Politico says there will be.

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/939109770937688065


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Virginiá on December 11, 2017, 02:39:05 PM
Even if he doesn't win reelection, he will force Republicans to spend money there, so no, not running in 2020 would be silly and could help Republicans in other competitive races. You guys already wrote him off this year, so I would think twice before declaring him DOA again.

I mean, Jones winning reelection wouldn't be unprecedented. Examples are more prevalent at the state level, but it's not totally unheard of for a politician to win a seemingly impossible race by the skin of their teeth, only to go on to win comfortably next time around. Granted, I don't necessarily think Jones could do that if he won tomorrow, but I won't rule it out either. Such a scenario that would enable that is Trump getting blown out in 2020 Carter-style, which is at the very least a possibility, given the way things are going so far.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 11, 2017, 02:39:21 PM
Predictit is really reacting to the Fox poll

there has been a 16 cent swing.

Jones all the way to 36

Moore down to 70


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 11, 2017, 02:43:40 PM
Predictit is really reacting to the Fox poll

there has been a 16 cent swing.

Jones all the way to 36

Moore down to 70

Good thing I already sold my Moore shares.

It would be gambling to hold to maturity at this point.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 11, 2017, 02:48:37 PM
Well to be fair, the answer still partially applies under the assumption of a Jones 2017 win. Jones shouldn't even bother with a hypothetical reelection in a Deep South state Trump is going to get (near) 60% in anyways. That'd just be a big waste of money.

Even if he doesn't win reelection, he will force Republicans to spend money there, so no, not running in 2020 would be silly and could help Republicans in other competitive races. You guys already wrote him off this year, so I would think twice before declaring him DOA again.


I doubt there are Republicans who will turn out because of robocalls which are likely confined to Democratic voters. Targeting those is actually the right thing to do, especially in a competitive special election where turnout is hard to gauge.

I doubt I'll get a chance to declare him DOA again. :P


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 11, 2017, 03:13:12 PM
Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject
Michael McDonald Retweeted Bridget Bowman
This seems too low to me. I hope Alabama election officials are preparing for higher turnout
 
@bridgetbhc
AL Secretary of State John Merrill says on NPR that he’s expecting  at least 25% turnout in tomorrow’s election #ALSEN
1:37 PM - 11 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/940289520729231361

I hope people won't leave if they aren't prepared.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: VPH on December 11, 2017, 03:14:35 PM
Predictit is really reacting to the Fox poll

there has been a 16 cent swing.

Jones all the way to 36

Moore down to 70

Poll is a total outlier.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 11, 2017, 03:17:16 PM
OK, this is just fycking hilarious.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore (http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore)

A pro-Trump super PAC arranged for a 12-year-old girl to interview Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) as he faces mounting allegations of sexual misconduct with teenage girls.

The America First Project brought Millie March, a girl whose interviews during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) went viral, to Alabama to interview Moore.

“We decided that we were going to bring Millie to Alabama, after everything that’s happened in this Alabama Senate race up until this point,” America First Project’s Jennifer Lawrence said in the video, adding that the group wanted "to show there is a wide range of people who support Roy Moore."


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 11, 2017, 03:18:44 PM
Predictit is really reacting to the Fox poll

there has been a 16 cent swing.

Jones all the way to 36

Moore down to 70

Poll is a total outlier.

Multiple polls have shown Jones with a large lead and Emerson is also an outlier.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 11, 2017, 03:19:19 PM
OK, this is just fycking hilarious.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore (http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore)

A pro-Trump super PAC arranged for a 12-year-old girl to interview Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) as he faces mounting allegations of sexual misconduct with teenage girls.

The America First Project brought Millie March, a girl whose interviews during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) went viral, to Alabama to interview Moore.

“We decided that we were going to bring Millie to Alabama, after everything that’s happened in this Alabama Senate race up until this point,” America First Project’s Jennifer Lawrence said in the video, adding that the group wanted "to show there is a wide range of people who support Roy Moore."

Saw this on Jonah Goldberg's feed a few hours ago. Ridiculous.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pyro on December 11, 2017, 03:23:15 PM
OK, this is just fycking hilarious.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore (http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore)

A pro-Trump super PAC arranged for a 12-year-old girl to interview Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) as he faces mounting allegations of sexual misconduct with teenage girls.

The America First Project brought Millie March, a girl whose interviews during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) went viral, to Alabama to interview Moore.

“We decided that we were going to bring Millie to Alabama, after everything that’s happened in this Alabama Senate race up until this point,” America First Project’s Jennifer Lawrence said in the video, adding that the group wanted "to show there is a wide range of people who support Roy Moore."

Reprehensible, for all involved.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America Needs R'hllor on December 11, 2017, 03:55:00 PM
OK, this is just fycking hilarious.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore (http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore)

A pro-Trump super PAC arranged for a 12-year-old girl to interview Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) as he faces mounting allegations of sexual misconduct with teenage girls.

The America First Project brought Millie March, a girl whose interviews during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) went viral, to Alabama to interview Moore.

“We decided that we were going to bring Millie to Alabama, after everything that’s happened in this Alabama Senate race up until this point,” America First Project’s Jennifer Lawrence said in the video, adding that the group wanted "to show there is a wide range of people who support Roy Moore."

"Hey, I'm not a pedo! Look, I manage to go through a WHOLE interview with a girl without sexually assaulting her!"
~Roy Moore


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 11, 2017, 03:56:02 PM
I for one can’t believe J-Law is pro-Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 11, 2017, 04:00:56 PM
FF Gwen Moore:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/364270-dem-lawmaker-calls-for-extra-protections-to-safeguard-senate-pages-if-roy

I, too, am impressed by tepid acts of virtue signaling! A true FF indeed. :)

So has he risen from just a Pedophile to sexual predator.. But Pedofiles generally do not like them older.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 11, 2017, 04:11:47 PM
Does anyone know if their will be an exit poll released tomorrow?

Steven Shepard from Politico says there will be.

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/939109770937688065

Do you think it will be as accurate as the 2016 General Election exit poll?

I expect some Moore voters will not agree to be polled. Some will lie.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 11, 2017, 04:16:12 PM
Does anyone know if their will be an exit poll released tomorrow?

Steven Shepard from Politico says there will be.

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/939109770937688065

Do you think it will be as accurate as the 2016 General Election exit poll?

I expect some Moore voters will not agree to be polled. Some will lie.

Alabama didn't get an exit poll for the 2016 general election. But, I think it's possible you see some Jones voters lie about their intentions. A vote for a Democrat may be worse to admit than a vote for an alleged child molester.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pyro on December 11, 2017, 04:23:25 PM
Does anyone know if their will be an exit poll released tomorrow?

Steven Shepard from Politico says there will be.

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/939109770937688065

Do you think it will be as accurate as the 2016 General Election exit poll?

I expect some Moore voters will not agree to be polled. Some will lie.

Alabama didn't get an exit poll for the 2016 general election. But, I think it's possible you see some Jones voters lie about their intentions. A vote for a Democrat may be worse to admit than a vote for an alleged child molester.

That is a definite possibility.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 11, 2017, 04:24:55 PM
https://twitter.com/sadmonsters/status/940085167988752385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2017%2F12%2F11%2F1723039%2F-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-12-11 (https://twitter.com/sadmonsters/status/940085167988752385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2017%2F12%2F11%2F1723039%2F-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-12-11)

AUDIENCE MEMBER: When was the last time you think America was great?

ROY MOORE: 1790.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Because "families were united" back then?

ROY MOORE: No, because it was 14 years old.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on December 11, 2017, 04:37:13 PM
Does anyone know if their will be an exit poll released tomorrow?

Steven Shepard from Politico says there will be.

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/939109770937688065

Do you think it will be as accurate as the 2016 General Election exit poll?

I expect some Moore voters will not agree to be polled. Some will lie.

Alabama didn't get an exit poll for the 2016 general election. But, I think it's possible you see some Jones voters lie about their intentions. A vote for a Democrat may be worse to admit than a vote for an alleged child molester.

That is a definite possibility.
I don't think the whole "social desirability bias" theory applies to Alabama. Exit polls might show a polling error in the Birmingham and Huntsville region.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: KingSweden on December 11, 2017, 04:37:46 PM
I for one can’t believe J-Law is pro-Moore.

Wut


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 11, 2017, 04:42:35 PM

Joking, didn't make it clear enough to the response above that one:

Quote
“We decided that we were going to bring Millie to Alabama, after everything that’s happened in this Alabama Senate race up until this point,” America First Project’s Jennifer Lawrence said in the video, adding that the group wanted "to show there is a wide range of people who support Roy Moore."


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 11, 2017, 05:03:59 PM

Joking, didn't make it clear enough to the response above that one:

Quote
“We decided that we were going to bring Millie to Alabama, after everything that’s happened in this Alabama Senate race up until this point,” America First Project’s Jennifer Lawrence said in the video, adding that the group wanted "to show there is a wide range of people who support Roy Moore."

And obviously a different "J-Law" given what the more well known J-Law said a few days back about Trump.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 11, 2017, 05:07:04 PM
https://twitter.com/sadmonsters/status/940085167988752385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2017%2F12%2F11%2F1723039%2F-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-12-11 (https://twitter.com/sadmonsters/status/940085167988752385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2017%2F12%2F11%2F1723039%2F-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-12-11)

AUDIENCE MEMBER: When was the last time you think America was great?

ROY MOORE: 1790.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Because "families were united" back then?

ROY MOORE: No, because it was 14 years old.

LOL, good job dude, this is an underrated comment! XD


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on December 11, 2017, 05:28:10 PM
He holds little girls high
And he molests them
Molestin' Moore!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 11, 2017, 05:34:13 PM
So.....outside of fox, where are all the legit, good-brand polling firms for this race?

CNN hasn't polled it, ppp hasn't polled it, opinion saavy hasn't polled, quinipac hasn't polled


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 11, 2017, 05:37:06 PM
WaPo polled it and gave Jones a 3-point lead.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 11, 2017, 05:41:46 PM
Yeah, and SurveyMonkey's not a bad pollster. All the reputable outfits seem to be giving Jones the advantage.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 11, 2017, 05:43:43 PM
Fox News says that Moore is the victim of an enthusiasm gap in the race as Democrats are more energized than Republicans.
https://www.google.co.nz/amp/www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/11/fox-news-poll-enthused-democrats-give-jones-lead-over-moore-in-alabama.amp.html


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 11, 2017, 05:57:56 PM
It might have already been posted, but Nate Silver wrote about all the crazy polling we've had today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-hell-is-happening-with-these-alabama-polls/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-hell-is-happening-with-these-alabama-polls/)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 11, 2017, 05:58:57 PM
lmao, check out the principled conservative take on this situation:

Quote
“I’ll have a hard time, quite frankly, keeping somebody in the body that I think molested a child, but we’ll see what happens,” Graham said.

"I'm pretty sure I couldn't tolerate a child molester in the Senate, but I'll leave myself enough wiggle room to go back on this if Moore does get elected."


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 11, 2017, 06:12:46 PM
Yeah, and SurveyMonkey's not a bad pollster.

Since when? Most of their 2016 polls were garbage.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 11, 2017, 06:14:15 PM
Yeah, and SurveyMonkey's not a bad pollster.

Since when? Most of their 2016 polls were garbage.

A lot of otherwise good pollsters got burned in 2016. Quinn's 2016 state polls were hot garbage, but they nailed Virginia last month.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 11, 2017, 06:27:28 PM
SurveyMonkey was a mixed bag last year.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: libertpaulian on December 11, 2017, 06:55:36 PM
Yeah, and SurveyMonkey's not a bad pollster.

Since when? Most of their 2016 polls were garbage.
In the Indiana governor's race, SurveyMonkey showed Eric Holcomb with a statistical advantage, despite John Gregg leading in the actual polls.

Guess who's our Governor right now?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 11, 2017, 07:46:34 PM
Nate Cohn’s model is accounting for approximately 1.3 million votes, much higher than the 25% turnout predicted by the SoS.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/940360990167793664


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Mike Thick on December 11, 2017, 07:49:58 PM
Nate Cohn’s model is accounting for approximately 1.3 million votes, much higher than the 25% turnout predicted by the SoS.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/940360990167793664

Yeah, this would be in the mid-to-high thirties range


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 11, 2017, 07:55:58 PM
Nate Cohn’s model is accounting for approximately 1.3 million votes, much higher than the 25% turnout predicted by the SoS.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/940360990167793664

Nate's models literally haven't predicted a damn thing right since Election night 2016


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 11, 2017, 08:26:02 PM
Molestin' Moore lands a big game changing endorsement the day before the election:

Roy Moore lands neo-Nazi endorsement before election for 'correctly' quoting Hitler
 (https://out.reddit.com/t3_7j6vss?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Froy-moore-lands-neo-nazi-endorsement-election-correctly-quoting-hitler-744947&token=AQAAHD0vWlC1598p0DzhAIoGisjYSc0gPHg0eZYCJNoqdkBD8LXN&app_name=reddit.com)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on December 11, 2017, 08:46:21 PM
Nate Cohn’s model is accounting for approximately 1.3 million votes, much higher than the 25% turnout predicted by the SoS.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/940360990167793664

Nate's models literally haven't predicted a damn thing right since Election night 2016

I don't understand how Cohn still has a job with the NYT after the 2016 fiasco.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 11, 2017, 08:56:25 PM
Everyone keeps blabbing about how Alabama deserves better than Moore, but they really don't.

The rest of America does, but not this state.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 11, 2017, 08:58:32 PM
Everyone keeps blabbing about how Alabama deserves better than Moore, but they really don't.

The rest of America does, but not this state.

The Senate writes the laws for all of us.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on December 11, 2017, 08:59:26 PM
Everyone keeps blabbing about how Alabama deserves better than Moore, but they really don't.

The rest of America does, but not this state.

The Senate writes the laws for all of us.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 11, 2017, 09:03:28 PM
That's why I said the rest of us 49 states deserve better.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 11, 2017, 09:04:51 PM
Lol

Quote
Ben Jacobs‏Verified account
@Bencjacobs
Following Following @Bencjacobs
More
Kayla Moore: Fake news would tell you we don’t care for Jews. One of our attorneys is a Jew


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 11, 2017, 09:05:26 PM
Lol

Quote
Ben Jacobs‏Verified account
@Bencjacobs
Following Following @Bencjacobs
More
Kayla Moore: Fake news would tell you we don’t care for Jews. One of our attorneys is a Jew

Hahahah


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 11, 2017, 09:09:54 PM
Lol

Quote
Ben Jacobs‏Verified account
@Bencjacobs
Following Following @Bencjacobs
More
Kayla Moore: Fake news would tell you we don’t care for Jews. One of our attorneys is a Jew

Not at all awkward.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 11, 2017, 09:22:58 PM
It sucks that 2014 was uncontested, I would've loved to see a swig map.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 11, 2017, 09:38:50 PM
It sucks that 2014 was uncontested, I would've loved to see a swig map.

Someone needs to do a swing map from 2008 (it was contested then).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 11, 2017, 09:40:24 PM
The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 11, 2017, 09:40:37 PM
Lol

Quote
Ben Jacobs‏Verified account
@Bencjacobs
Following Following @Bencjacobs
More
Kayla Moore: Fake news would tell you we don’t care for Jews. One of our attorneys is a Jew

We’re not anti-Semitic, honest and for truly.  We even have Jewish friend who is one of those people!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 11, 2017, 09:43:50 PM
When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?
Apparently never.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 11, 2017, 09:46:51 PM
When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?
Apparently never.

They got released. They were the Change and Monmouth ones. Enten said that when only Fox and Emerson were out.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 11, 2017, 09:46:56 PM
When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?
Apparently never.

Emerson, Fox and Change...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 11, 2017, 09:49:28 PM
The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

LOL.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 11, 2017, 09:51:02 PM
The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

Who?  Also link?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 11, 2017, 09:52:32 PM
The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

Who?  Also link?

Got it from daily kos elections
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/12/11/1723039/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-12-11

Near the bottom of comments


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 11, 2017, 09:54:23 PM
The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

If they manage that it'll be a ing miracle.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 11, 2017, 10:11:37 PM
The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

If they manage that it'll be a ing miracle.

Yeah, I’d be overjoyed if it was even 40-43%


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 11, 2017, 10:13:15 PM
The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

If they manage that it'll be a ing miracle.

I completely agree, just thought it should be posted


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 11, 2017, 10:15:21 PM
Lol

Quote
Ben Jacobs‏Verified account
@Bencjacobs
Following Following @Bencjacobs
More
Kayla Moore: Fake news would tell you we don’t care for Jews. One of our attorneys is a Jew

Come to think of it, I don’t think any of their attorneys are even Jewish LOL


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Ebsy on December 11, 2017, 10:19:59 PM
A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 11, 2017, 10:28:48 PM
More from SurveyMonkey...long but interesting: https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/past-vote-vs-intention-an-alabama-senate-race-update/


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 11, 2017, 10:37:16 PM
A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.

I believe you, but link?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on December 11, 2017, 10:41:42 PM
More from SurveyMonkey...long but interesting: https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/past-vote-vs-intention-an-alabama-senate-race-update/

Probably the best explanation to be still be hopeful for the possibility of a Jones win.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 11, 2017, 10:46:36 PM
A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.

Wut?

4 realises??

Link plz


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 11, 2017, 10:47:04 PM
The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

Who?  Also link?

The Alabama Democratic Conference is a historic organization that was originally founded to get Black Alabamians registered to vote and to become politically active. It has often acted as a sister party to the main Democratic Party down there (to some controversy) and fielded its own candidate against George Wallace.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on December 11, 2017, 10:48:31 PM
I see jones narrowly pulling it out by 82


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 11, 2017, 10:49:08 PM
The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

If they manage that it'll be a ing miracle.

Yeah, I’d be overjoyed if it was even 40-43%

Hell, hitting one third turn out, or even just breaking 30% would probably be enough for Jones to win


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 11, 2017, 10:51:13 PM
A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.

I want to believe that enough Alabamians will see how ridiculous this sh!t is, but I can't until I see it.

Gianforte body slamming a reporter in Montana days before the election up there didn't impact that election and White Alabamians are taking Moore's alleged pedophilia even better than Montanans took the body slam, so I doubt it would have any effect.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on December 11, 2017, 10:51:47 PM
A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.

Please include a link. Please.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: OneJ on December 11, 2017, 10:52:21 PM
A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.

I want to believe that enough Alabamians will see how ridiculous this sh!t is, but I can't until I see it.

Gianforte body slamming a reporter in Montana days before the election up there didn't impact that election and White Alabamians are taking Moore's alleged pedophilia even better than Montanans took the body slam, so I doubt it would have any effect.

That was one day before election day and btw, most of the ballots were already turned in before that incident.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Virginiá on December 11, 2017, 10:53:09 PM
A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.

Please include a link. Please.

https://thinkprogress.org/speaker-at-moore-event-says-he-accidentally-went-with-moore-to-a-brothel-with-child-prostitutes-65c9819f8a1e/

Quote
Moore and Sailing agreed. According to Sailing, they didn’t expect there was anything untoward going on at the “private club” because “there were legitimate private clubs” in Vietnam. The third man drove them to the club in his Jeep.

Sailing said that, when he and Moore arrived, they soon realized the man had taken them to a brothel. The third man, Sailing suggested, essentially tricked them. “I could tell you what I saw but I don’t want to,” Sailing said mischievously.

“There were certainly pretty girls. And they were girls. They were young. Some were very young,” Sailing acknowledged. But according to Sailing, Moore was shocked by what he saw. “We shouldn’t be here, I’m leaving,” Moore said, according to Sailing.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 11, 2017, 11:11:00 PM
And he thought that story was...a positive for Moore?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 11, 2017, 11:11:32 PM
“We shouldn’t be here, I’m leaving,” Moore said, according to Sailing.
LOL. Sure.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 11, 2017, 11:13:41 PM

82 votes? That's not going to happen, if it's Jones <10,000 the republicans will just fraud the vote, they did it in 2002.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 11, 2017, 11:18:57 PM
A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.

I want to believe that enough Alabamians will see how ridiculous this sh!t is, but I can't until I see it.

Gianforte body slamming a reporter in Montana days before the election up there didn't impact that election and White Alabamians are taking Moore's alleged pedophilia even better than Montanans took the body slam, so I doubt it would have any effect.

That was one day before election day and btw, most of the ballots were already turned in before that incident.

You're correct. I was just wanting to make a dig about the lovely law-abiding candidates the GOP have been fielding


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 11, 2017, 11:20:37 PM
OK, I talked with a couple friends at the University of Alabama to get a sense of what their friends are all planning to do and got conflicting information.  One said that he only knows 2 Republicans who are not voting for Moore and that all of the rest are still voting for him (and he once said his fraternity only has 2 Democrats out of like 75-100 people).  The other said he thinks most of their College Republicans chapter is planning to write in Nick Saban.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: YPestis25 on December 11, 2017, 11:21:14 PM
Does Alabama have any notable counting biases?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 11, 2017, 11:33:56 PM
Does Alabama have any notable counting biases?

In 2008, it had a democratic counting bias. I don't know about anything more recent, the coverage doesn't make it clear because the state was called immediately.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: JA on December 11, 2017, 11:44:33 PM
Judge orders Alabama not to destroy voting records in Tuesday's Senate election (http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/judge_orders_alabama_not_to_de.html)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Keep cool-idge on December 11, 2017, 11:46:07 PM
I don’t know what will happen.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: JA on December 11, 2017, 11:56:13 PM

And I know that water is wet.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 11, 2017, 11:59:24 PM
“We shouldn’t be here, I’m leaving,” Moore said, according to Sailing.
LOL. Sure.
He probably stayed.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: JA on December 12, 2017, 12:03:14 AM
A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.

Just imagine what Moore’s browser history must look like...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 12:04:38 AM
A speaker at the Moore rally just admitted to visiting a sex club filled with underage girls with Moore in tow. We are so beyond parody at this point.

Just imagine what Moore’s browser history must look like...

"tensile strength of dog skin"
"where to buy jewish lawyer"
"young Vietnamese ...."


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sorenroy on December 12, 2017, 12:15:08 AM
More from SurveyMonkey...long but interesting: https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/past-vote-vs-intention-an-alabama-senate-race-update/

The updated numbers seem to be nothing but good news for Jones. I put down the specific changes from the last poll's numbers here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279516.msg5954322#msg5954322), but Moore only made gains on his margin is their "Standard + 2016 Vote Weights; Weighted by Self-Reported Voting" model. Everything else shows Jones margin gains of up to 14 points. What is causing such a shift towards Jones in this last week? What happened this past week that's pushing Jones over the edge?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 12:17:40 AM
More from SurveyMonkey...long but interesting: https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/past-vote-vs-intention-an-alabama-senate-race-update/

The updated numbers seem to be nothing but good news for Jones. I put down the specific changes from the last poll's numbers here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279516.msg5954322#msg5954322), but Moore only made gains on his margin is their "Standard + 2016 Vote Weights; Weighted by Self-Reported Voting" model. Everything else shows Jones margin gains of up to 14 points. What is causing such a shift towards Jones in this last week? What happened this past week that's pushing Jones over the edge?

Late breaking voters.

Similar to how Trump made up a lot of ground in the last week or so in 2016 (including BEFORE the Comey letter, btw).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: NOVA Green on December 12, 2017, 02:58:08 AM
For all the various wrangling going on in Part 3 of this Megathread, we are neglecting the cultural influence of various musical artists, from what used to be one of the poorest and most deprived States in our entire Great Nation...

Maybe, we need a little bit of an Alabama musical soundtrack on Election Eve, from major musical artists in this small State???

Alabama: My Home's in Alabama....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4Ryzfvf7AE

Alabama: Song of the South...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBzqqMAe8n4

Hank Williams Senior:

Jambalya (Down on the Bayou)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeSYy_iFstU

Cherokee Boogie:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zofg4PuqSS4

Old Country Church:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJ8YInU-Ihc

Meanwhile, we have the "Outlaw son of Hank Sr" drug abusing Hank Williams Jr. singing a song about Mr Lincoln in the early '80s, that appears to be an endorsement of a relatively reactionary message during the Reagan Era...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN-MrZ95dbU

Now obviously although the soundtracks of these various artists have no direct say in the 2017   
US-SEN special election in 'Bama, there is an historical thread of the "New South" that emerges in the musical works of Hank Sr during the FDR era, and obviously the band Alabama that was arguably at the spearhead of the "Southern Rock" musical movement of the 1970s representing 'Bama, although obviously the Allman Brothers and Charlie Daniels Band, were more famous as originators of the musical sound.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hank_Williams

Still, for all of y'all 'Pub haters and lovers out there, Richard Shelby (R-SEN-AL) actually was elected as Democrat from 'Bama for US-Senate way back in '86....

Rick Perry deserves a similar badge of honor representing East Tex back in the early '90s....

Although Doug Jones might appear as a "Liberal" to some voters in 'Bama in the current partisan environment, he's actually more of a classic Southern Democrat that would honestly make Joe Manchin of West Virginia look like a flaming Liberal on many issues, but on bread and butter economics he will follow in the tradition of supporting the working Men and Women of his state, as any US Senator should do when representing their voters, especially in a relatively impoverished State by national standards...y

All of y'all rolling on the stereotypes of Alabama, might have an unpleasant surprise coming tomorrow night.... and yes I hope Icespear not only loses the $ 1,000 profits he made off his on-line betting, but maybe another $ 1-2k on top of that.... :)

No crystal ball, no magic wand, no idea of the outcome although if I were betting odds on a horse would give it a narrow Moore win as a safety bet.... but hey at least I'm going to be listening to a few songs from homegrown Alabama artists as I watch the election returns.

Any other suggestions for musical soundtrack lists to listen to from Alabama as we watch the election returns tomorrow night?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: YE on December 12, 2017, 03:00:28 AM
The Alabama Song of the South might be my favorite political song. 


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 03:44:22 AM
The Alabama Song of the South might be my favorite political song. 

Daddy was a veteran, a Southern Democrat
They oughta get a rich man to vote like that


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 07:52:29 AM
Well, the big day is here.  A few words of advice:

1. Don't read too much into anecdotal turnout or weather reports.

2. Ignore trolls.

3. If there are early exit poll results, take them with a grain of salt.

4. Have fun!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 12, 2017, 07:59:35 AM
Well, the big day is here.  A few words of advice:

1. Don't read too much into anecdotal turnout or weather reports.

2. Ignore trolls.

3. If there are early exit poll results, take them with a grain of salt.

4. Have fun!

FWIW, there’s a 0% chance of rain today. Highs in the mid 40s


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: OneJ on December 12, 2017, 08:11:06 AM
Anybody on Twitter reporting turnout? Yes it's early, but still. I'm quite anxious about all of this actually.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 12, 2017, 08:41:25 AM
Well, the big day is here.  A few words of advice:

1. Don't read too much into anecdotal turnout or weather reports.

2. Ignore trolls.

3. If there are early exit poll results, take them with a grain of salt.

4. Have fun!

FWIW, there’s a 0% chance of rain today. Highs in the mid 40s

Thank God for that 0% chance of rain.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: LimoLiberal on December 12, 2017, 08:59:25 AM
Trolling deleted. Please report troll posts and don't reply. --Mod.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 09:10:03 AM
Looks like its going to rain in Birmingham and Montgomery today. Jones is done. :(

Umm, no


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 09:12:27 AM
Looks like its going to rain in Birmingham and Montgomery today. Jones is done. :(

There is a 0% chance of rain in both cities, according to intellicast.com

Reported for (ongoing) trolling.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 12, 2017, 09:14:36 AM
Virginia probably spoiled us when it comes to hourly turnout reports. I get the feeling that we won't be getting many official turnout numbers today from county clerks.

But it might be for the best because it caused some people to go a little crazy last month.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 09:32:34 AM
Lulz

Quote
Jerry Falwell
Jerry Falwell
@JerryFalwellJr

AL voters are too smart to let the media & Estab Repubs & Dems tell them how to vote. I hope the spirit of Lynyrd Skynyrd is alive/well in AL. “A southern man don’t need them around anyhow & Watergate does not bother me, does your conscience bother you, tell me true?@MooreSenate


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 09:38:17 AM

82 votes? That's not going to happen, if it's Jones <10,000 the republicans will just fraud the vote, they did it in 2002.

Just like Minnesota and Washington Democrats. 


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 12, 2017, 09:40:46 AM

82 votes? That's not going to happen, if it's Jones <10,000 the republicans will just fraud the vote, they did it in 2002.

Just like Minnesota and Washington Democrats. 

Whatever you need to tell yourself to feel better, dude


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on December 12, 2017, 09:46:56 AM
Lulz

Quote
Jerry Falwell
Jerry Falwell
@JerryFalwellJr

AL voters are too smart to let the media & Estab Repubs & Dems tell them how to vote. I hope the spirit of Lynyrd Skynyrd is alive/well in AL. “A southern man don’t need them around anyhow & Watergate does not bother me, does your conscience bother you, tell me true?@MooreSenate



Okay this has always bothered me. I mean I like Skynyrd's music and all, but why doesn't Watergate bother them?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 09:51:22 AM
Relax. Sample some adult beverage you like.  You know Fox has it pegged.  So, relax.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on December 12, 2017, 09:56:32 AM
Relax. Sample some adult beverage you like.  You know Fox has it pegged.  So, relax.

Roy Moore is probably a prohibitionist so we need to enjoy those adult beverages while we can.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 09:57:58 AM
Relax. Sample some adult beverage you like.  You know Fox has it pegged.  So, relax.
Is drinking before noon the reason all your posts are incoherent?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Young Conservative on December 12, 2017, 10:04:44 AM
Alabama should have passed a law requiring candidates to receive over 50% of the vote to be elected. That would have solved the problem without angering the base.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 10:05:04 AM

82 votes? That's not going to happen, if it's Jones <10,000 the republicans will just fraud the vote, they did it in 2002.

Just like Minnesota and Washington Democrats.  

Whatever you need to tell yourself to feel better, dude

 You Cannot stand the truth.  You do not understand that both Republicans and Democrats are sinners. You think you are a better person. You believe Democrats are near perfect and Republican are near evil devils.  Whatever.

I cannot win today, unless Moore wins, and a way can be found to force him into lying under oath, so he can be expelled.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 10:08:32 AM
AP county map (http://www.wvtm13.com/article/2017-alabama-senate-election-results-via-ap-interactive-county-map/14408834)

Feeling pretty confident about my Jones +6 prediction, but we'll see later what happens.

WTF is going on with the AP and its premature reporting of oddly-specific results? Saving for posterity just in case the election's rigged:

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on December 12, 2017, 10:08:45 AM

82 votes? That's not going to happen, if it's Jones <10,000 the republicans will just fraud the vote, they did it in 2002.

Just like Minnesota and Washington Democrats.  

Whatever you need to tell yourself to feel better, dude

Cannot stand the truth.  Don’t understand that both Republicans and Democrat are sinners. You think you are a better person. You believe Democrats are near perfect and Republican are near evil devils.  Whatever.

I cannot win today, unless Moore wins, and a way can be found to force him into lying under oath, so he can be expelled.

Nobody is saying Democrats are perfect. What we are saying is democrats are doing a better job kicking out the people who have done sexual misconduct (Conyers & Franken) than republicans. There's a special place in hell for anyone who is a child predator, yet a bunch of these republicans are letting Moore in with open arms.

I've voted Republican for far less, yet somehow republicans can't find their way to supporting a reasonable, decent man over an insane predator who thinks christians are persecuted.

People like you are why 22% of self-identified millennial republicans have switched parties (I'm one of them). I'm really tired of the republicans being allowed to do whatever the hell they want and the base loyally sticking behind of them. This isn't my damn America and I won't stand for it, and you better listen to me as someone who is about to pay your Social Security & possibly Medicare checks.



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 10:15:18 AM
Oh...so Limoliberal really is a troll. I just thought he needed a Xanax or something.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 10:41:38 AM
Relax. Sample some adult beverage you like.  You know Fox has it pegged.  So, relax.

Roy Moore is probably a prohibitionist so we need to enjoy those adult beverages while we can.

I am sure you can find a moonshiner somewhere in the Alabama hills.  Just like you can find one in the Virginia mountains. 


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gustaf on December 12, 2017, 10:49:33 AM
Relax. Sample some adult beverage you like.  You know Fox has it pegged.  So, relax.

Roy Moore is probably a prohibitionist so we need to enjoy those adult beverages while we can.

I am sure you can find a moonshiner somewhere in the Alabama hills.  Just like you can find one in the Virginia mountains. 

I'm gonna have a whisky Roy Moore style - 14 years old and defenceless against my sampling.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 12, 2017, 10:52:45 AM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on December 12, 2017, 10:53:26 AM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: LimoLiberal on December 12, 2017, 10:56:49 AM
What? My comment was obviously facetious... the post above me said that there was a 0% chance of rain. I was making fun of my pre-virginia bedwetting, not trolling. I thought people would realize that.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 12, 2017, 11:01:42 AM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 12, 2017, 11:04:21 AM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 11:05:19 AM
A good writeup on what benchmarks Jones may need: https://medium.com/@ZacMcCrary/what-ill-be-watching-on-election-night-in-alabama-5ee7e10a68d8


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 12, 2017, 11:05:40 AM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

FF


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: DFL on December 12, 2017, 11:08:36 AM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

FF


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GlobeSoc on December 12, 2017, 11:10:49 AM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

FF


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Ye We Can on December 12, 2017, 11:11:39 AM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

FF


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 11:12:58 AM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

FF


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 11:15:19 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kantakouzenos on December 12, 2017, 11:17:45 AM
I predict Jones 50 Moore 48.  Final call


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 11:18:36 AM
In case anyone is interested:

Quote

Kyle Whitmire‏
Verified account
@WarOnDumb

Per AL Sec State @JohnHMerrill, if someone votes straight-ticket and then votes for a candidate for another party, the vote for the candidate counts. If someone bubbles in both straight ticket and a candidate for the same party, it counts once and doesn't kick out the ballot


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 11:18:48 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tender Branson on December 12, 2017, 11:19:30 AM
Does anyone know if CNN International will have some live coverage for this race ?

I guess polls close at 8pm ? Which should be 2am here.

This is one of the rare races where I'll probably get up at 2am despite having to work tomorrow ... :P


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 11:21:51 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gustaf on December 12, 2017, 11:22:44 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

That's bad for Jones right?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 11:22:55 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 11:23:37 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

That's bad for Jones right?

I'm going to assume that - just like in ATL and other cities - any place called "Midtown" is filled with a bunch of white liberal and/or Democratic votes in general, but could be mistaken.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gustaf on December 12, 2017, 11:24:07 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

Wouldn't downtown Huntsville be much more D-heavy than the rest of Madison County?

But the only way a white suburb is D-heavy is probably depressed turnout among the GOP base.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 11:25:54 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

About freaking out over turnout reports.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 11:27:21 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

About freaking out over turnout reports.

We're reaching peak atlas once again


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Anna Komnene on December 12, 2017, 11:28:05 AM
Huntsville is an area that Jones targeted heavily for canvassing, so it could just be the result of that. Hard to say obviously.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tender Branson on December 12, 2017, 11:28:28 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

Turnout doesn't matter if there's a particular mood in the electorate ...

A Democrat can defeat a Republican by 60-40 with 10% turnout, or with 90% turnout.

Or lose by the same margins with the same levels of turnout.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 12, 2017, 11:29:02 AM
Huntsville is certainly not a typical Alabama city.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pandaguineapig on December 12, 2017, 11:29:51 AM
Don't read much into these anecdotal turnout bits, reminds me of how people were declaring Hillary the winner based off of high morning turnout in cities


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 11:31:22 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

About freaking out over turnout reports.

We're reaching peak atlas once again

It happens every damn time.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 11:31:40 AM
http://ace.mu.nu


82 votes? That's not going to happen, if it's Jones <10,000 the republicans will just fraud the vote, they did it in 2002.

Just like Minnesota and Washington Democrats.  

Whatever you need to tell yourself to feel better, dude

Cannot stand the truth.  Don’t understand that both Republicans and Democrat are sinners. You think you are a better person. You believe Democrats are near perfect and Republican are near evil devils.  Whatever.

I cannot win today, unless Moore wins, and a way can be found to force him into lying under oath, so he can be expelled.

Nobody is saying Democrats are perfect. What we are saying is democrats are doing a better job kicking out the people who have done sexual misconduct (Conyers & Franken) than republicans. There's a special place in hell for anyone who is a child predator, yet a bunch of these republicans are letting Moore in with open arms.

I've voted Republican for far less, yet somehow republicans can't find their way to supporting a reasonable, decent man over an insane predator who thinks christians are persecuted.

People like you are why 22% of self-identified millennial republicans have switched parties (I'm one of them). I'm really tired of the republicans being allowed to do whatever the hell they want and the base loyally sticking behind of them. This isn't my damn America and I won't stand for it, and you better listen to me as someone who is about to pay your Social Security & possibly Medicare checks.



This is not a thread for a discussion of this at this time.  I would like you to make a list in order substantiate your claim.  Then we also need to discuss the hypocrisy of the many Democrats who are now turning on the Clintons.  Please consider 33,000 e–mails gone a missing.  There are other things but all of these things are for another day.

I wish we could discuss this without the intervention of name calling interlopers. It is what it is.



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 11:31:53 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

About freaking out over turnout reports.

We're reaching peak atlas once again

It happens every damn time.

Yep, it sure does


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 12, 2017, 11:35:07 AM
Huntsville is certainly not a typical Alabama city.

Very true. Huntsville has a very large amount of college educated voters. The tech industry is also big in Huntsville.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 11:35:40 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

About freaking out over turnout reports.

We're reaching peak atlas once again

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdWAhP8rYKA


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: cvparty on December 12, 2017, 11:35:45 AM
it feels like november 8th again but idk who's trump this time around

moore's the miscreant but jones is the underdog


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 11:36:30 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

Turnout doesn't matter if there's a particular mood in the electorate ...

A Democrat can defeat a Republican by 60-40 with 10% turnout, or with 90% turnout.

Or lose by the same margins with the same levels of turnout.

Uhhh, no: Democrats cannot win by 20 points in a federal contest in AL with 90% turnout, regardless of mood. Maybe with 10%, but even that's pushing the envelope of what's realistically possible.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gustaf on December 12, 2017, 11:39:45 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

About freaking out over turnout reports.

We're reaching peak atlas once again

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdWAhP8rYKA

A+


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on December 12, 2017, 11:40:50 AM
Does anyone know if it will be possible to find the results of tonight's election broken down by congressional district?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Devout Centrist on December 12, 2017, 11:41:42 AM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones
Atta boy


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: King Lear on December 12, 2017, 11:44:10 AM
If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 11:44:24 AM
since were posting turnout reports

Quote
Eugene Scott

@Eugene_Scott
Turnout at the precinct near UAB, a community largely populated by left-leaning, white, millennials, was reportedly three times higher at 8 AM than it was during the recent mayoral race, which led to the election of the city’s youngest mayor, a Sanders-backed Morehouse grad.
https://twitter.com/Eugene_Scott/status/940620368712294401


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 11:45:41 AM
Quote
Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏Verified account
@acvollers
 29m29 minutes ago
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

@elsi_1915
Follow Follow @elsi_1915
More
Replying to @acvollers @misszoot
As of 1022, 643 people voted at United Methodist on Old Monrovia!
!

2982 votes in 2016 (51-40 Clinton).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 12, 2017, 11:47:10 AM
Don't read much into these anecdotal turnout bits, reminds me of how people were declaring Hillary the winner based off of high morning turnout in cities

Why go back so far? People were saying Northam landslide last month two hours after the polls opened based on turnout reports, then SW VA started to catch up and it started raining in NoVA and Northam was finished.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 11:48:00 AM
Don't read much into these anecdotal turnout bits, reminds me of how people were declaring Hillary the winner based off of high morning turnout in cities

Why go back so far? People were saying Northam landslide last month two hours after the polls opened based on turnout reports, then SW VA started to catch up and it started raining in NoVA and Northam was finished.
Yeah, I'm just covering my ears and waiting for the actual results to start trickling in.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 11:48:16 AM
Don't read much into these anecdotal turnout bits, reminds me of how people were declaring Hillary the winner based off of high morning turnout in cities

Why go back so far? People were saying Northam landslide last month two hours after the polls opened based on turnout reports, then SW VA started to catch up and it started raining in NoVA and Northam was finished.

Yep, those were great times /s


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tender Branson on December 12, 2017, 11:49:47 AM
Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

Quote
Anna Claire Vollers‏
Verified account
 
@acvollers
 59s
59 seconds ago
 
 
More
Here at midtown Huntsville polling place, a long line snaked through the church lobby. At 10 a.m. more than 600 votes cast. Poll worker said turnout so far looked close to presidential election levels. #alsen #ALSenateRace

Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

Turnout doesn't matter if there's a particular mood in the electorate ...

A Democrat can defeat a Republican by 60-40 with 10% turnout, or with 90% turnout.

Or lose by the same margins with the same levels of turnout.

Uhhh, no: Democrats cannot win by 20 points in a federal contest in AL with 90% turnout, regardless of mood. Maybe with 10%, but even that's pushing the envelope of what's realistically possible.

Apparently, you do not understand how elections work.

Of course Democrats can win in AL with 90% turnout. If the mood is there and if the Democrat is popular and the Republican not.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: jman123 on December 12, 2017, 11:50:33 AM
While looking through Instagram at people who posted they voted in Alabama I see a lot of people saying they voted with pro Jones hashtags. A lot of them are white. Take it with a grain of salt but I think Jones is making inroads among whites. My anecdote on this election


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Anna Komnene on December 12, 2017, 11:54:35 AM
While looking through Instagram at people who posted they voted in Alabama I see a lot of people saying they voted with pro Jones hashtags. A lot of them are white. Take it with a grain of salt but I think Jones is making inroads among whites. My anecdote on this election

Jones specifically asked supporters to do that, so it's probably a sign of that more than anything... but still good to know they're doing it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 11:57:20 AM
Why does it seem like most twitter turnout reports by amateur reporters are from precincts that are more democratic? I feel like we get so many reports out of cities, but rarely are people on twitter at exurban and rural precincts


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 12, 2017, 11:57:24 AM
Does anyone over 35 use Instagram other than Trump?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 12, 2017, 12:01:59 PM
Does anyone over 35 use Instagram other than Trump?

Jeanine Pirro loves showing off to the world how hot she thinks she is on it.

That's rather disturbing...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 12:05:15 PM
Turnout doesn't matter if there's a particular mood in the electorate ...

A Democrat can defeat a Republican by 60-40 with 10% turnout, or with 90% turnout.

Or lose by the same margins with the same levels of turnout.

Uhhh, no: Democrats cannot win by 20 points in a federal contest in AL with 90% turnout, regardless of mood. Maybe with 10%, but even that's pushing the envelope of what's realistically possible.

Apparently, you do not understand how elections work.

Of course Democrats can win in AL with 90% turnout. If the mood is there and if the Democrat is popular and the Republican not.

What is this, 1960? No segment of the American electorate at near maximum turnout is capable of swinging 40 points against its usual voting habits because there aren't enough people who are either a) capable of being turned out who aren't already voting and/or b) malleable enough to change their minds like that - and certainly not in the South. An election with 90% turnout is going to look more or less like an election with 60% turnout (at least when the baseline is a 40-point swing).

You could in theory have such an event happen with really low turnout, but that would only be because something made nearly all of the GOP stay home and a disproportionate share of Democrats turn out - which is not realistic at all. Generally, there isn't a monumental difference between the two parties' shares of the vote in low and high-turnout situations.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 12:14:09 PM
Does anyone over 35 use Instagram other than Trump?

Jeanine Pirro loves showing off to the world how hot she thinks she is on it.
Ew


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: ursulahx on December 12, 2017, 12:15:00 PM
These turnout and Instagram posts are fun, but the bottom line is that this race has become nationalised. It's Alabama anti-establishment voters against The World. They see they've got their man in the White House, but they also see him under attack all the time (I'm seeing it from their POV) so they don't feel they've won yet. They have to keep sending their men to the national level again and again. They're still motivated.

This is why Jones won't win, even though he has doubtless swung a lot of people his way. Motivated Republicans massively outnumber motivated Democrats. In any other state - OK, almost any other state - I might be more cautious.

I don't want to be right, y'know.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 12:16:27 PM
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2012&fips=29169&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=1

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2012&off=0&elect=0&fips=29169&f=0

That's great and all, but it's not the same thing and you know it. It's certainly not a valid comparison within the confines of a federal contest in AL, nor does it refute Tender's ridiculous argument that 90% of AL could show up to vote and elect a Democrat in a landslide. There are plenty of examples of smaller electorates all across the country voting at different margins for different types of elections.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Blair on December 12, 2017, 12:25:31 PM
These turnout and Instagram posts are fun, but the bottom line is that this race has become nationalised. It's Alabama anti-establishment voters against The World. They see they've got their man in the White House, but they also see him under attack all the time (I'm seeing it from their POV) so they don't feel they've won yet. They have to keep sending their men to the national level again and again. They're still motivated.

This is why Jones won't win, even though he has doubtless swung a lot of people his way. Motivated Republicans massively outnumber motivated Democrats. In any other state - OK, almost any other state - I might be more cautious.

I don't want to be right, y'know.

I mean this confuses MAGA activists/voters with the generic Alabama Republican voter; I'm sure lots of them like/support Trump but still won't be massively enthused about voting for a accused pedophile in a senate race. I mean heck Trump even endorsed Strange in the Primary, and lost.

The race has got national focus, but has not been nationalised. GA-06 had tons of liberal activists/politicians/money from out of state, and the race was framed as being all about Trump. I mean the Democrats ran someone who worked on the Hill.

The Alabama race has become more about Alabama itself; and has became about whether a paedophile should be in the senate, rather than if the Democrats will have another vote in the Senate.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: DrScholl on December 12, 2017, 12:29:34 PM
The SoS is still predicting 25% turnout.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: gorelick on December 12, 2017, 12:30:02 PM
twitter dot com/MikeCasonAL/status/940633184609415168

Expected turnout is 25%, do you guys know what was turnout in 2010 Senator elections?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 12:30:09 PM
Anyone got anymore of those turnout reports?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 12:31:40 PM
twitter dot com/MikeCasonAL/status/940633184609415168

Expected turnout is 25%, do you guys know what was turnout in 2010 Senator elections?

I can't find any info, but I believe it was probably higher than 25%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 12:36:03 PM
twitter dot com/MikeCasonAL/status/940633184609415168

Expected turnout is 25%, do you guys know what was turnout in 2010 Senator elections?

1485499 votes in AL-2010-SEN
2611322 active RVs in November 2010
2966933 RVs (including inactive)

So 50.06% if you count inactive registered voters; 56.89% if you count just the actives.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: ursulahx on December 12, 2017, 12:36:13 PM
These turnout and Instagram posts are fun, but the bottom line is that this race has become nationalised. It's Alabama anti-establishment voters against The World. They see they've got their man in the White House, but they also see him under attack all the time (I'm seeing it from their POV) so they don't feel they've won yet. They have to keep sending their men to the national level again and again. They're still motivated.

This is why Jones won't win, even though he has doubtless swung a lot of people his way. Motivated Republicans massively outnumber motivated Democrats. In any other state - OK, almost any other state - I might be more cautious.

I don't want to be right, y'know.

I mean this confuses MAGA activists/voters with the generic Alabama Republican voter; I'm sure lots of them like/support Trump but still won't be massively enthused about voting for a accused pedophile in a senate race. I mean heck Trump even endorsed Strange in the Primary, and lost.

The race has got national focus, but has not been nationalised. GA-06 had tons of liberal activists/politicians/money from out of state, and the race was framed as being all about Trump. I mean the Democrats ran someone who worked on the Hill.

The Alabama race has become more about Alabama itself; and has became about whether a paedophile should be in the senate, rather than if the Democrats will have another vote in the Senate.

That's an excellent counter-argument, and I hope very much that your view on things is more correct than mine.

I think we need to take a step back and look at the wider perspective on all this. If Jones is crushed, it's business as usual. If he wins, the world is (briefly) turned upside down. But if he loses narrowly, which I think is the most likely result, what happens? Democratic despair at having come so close, more Republican jitters, and a lot of tweets and column inches. But then things settle down. Trump has his victory; Moore has his. The Republicans quietly seat Moore (though I don't know who's going to volunteer to sit next to him) and the GOP's legislative agenda continues its clunky journey forwards.

In other words, whether Jones loses by a lot or by a little, or even just one vote, nothing much changes in the immediate term and the Democrats still have to wait until November 2018 if they hope to make any difference to the country. Sorry if this is stating the obvious, but it would be easy for the Democrats to say "ha! We came close!" if Jones loses; as if this somehow changes everything, where in fact it changes nothing.

(When I say it changes nothing, I mean the election itself; having Moore in the Senate could change a lot of things, but that's yet to be seen.)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: CatoMinor on December 12, 2017, 12:42:33 PM
I don't understand why people keep comparing Missouri and Alabama politics. They are nothing alike asides a somewhat shared southern heritage.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 12, 2017, 12:46:24 PM
Ed Gilespie just stated on David Axelrod's radio show that if he was an Alabamian he wouldn't have voted for Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: KingSweden on December 12, 2017, 12:50:11 PM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones
Atta boy


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 12:52:01 PM
Ed Gilespie just stated on David Axelrod's radio show that if he was an Alabamian he wouldn't have voted for Moore.
But he's not an Alabamian, so...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America Needs R'hllor on December 12, 2017, 12:54:53 PM
If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 12:55:31 PM
Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: DrScholl on December 12, 2017, 12:56:07 PM
Gillespie must have forgotten that he doesn't need to say anything to sound moderate at this point because he already lost his race.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 12:56:50 PM
I shouldn't be reading too much into these turnout reports, right?

Also, even if Moore is elected, Franken should still resign. The other side's lack of standards is not an excuse for ours.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 12:57:24 PM
Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

What a surprise.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 12, 2017, 12:59:17 PM
If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

Seriously, that is written exactly like a Trump tweet.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 12:59:52 PM
Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

What a surprise.

Yeah, the word "surprisingly" was the only surprising part of the statement.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Anna Komnene on December 12, 2017, 01:02:13 PM
Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

I hope someone tells them they can still vote. They just have to fill out some info. Still ridiculous.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 01:02:41 PM
I'm convinced more than ever that people on the predictit comment page are spreading dubious info in order to help themselves financially with the share prices.

Some unverified twitter account named "evelyn slice" is being spammed all over the predictit comment section saying black turnout is up 70%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: YPestis25 on December 12, 2017, 01:04:07 PM
Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

If someone is put down as inactive, can they still vote?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 01:07:55 PM
Molestin' Moore is done!

Quote
Jon Copeland
Jon Copeland
@joncopeland

Early reports of strong turnout in Tuscaloosa.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: DrScholl on December 12, 2017, 01:10:02 PM
Turnout reports don't always indicate which way an election is going, so let's not declare anyone done yet based on them. With that said, I have seen a couple of tweets that say that turnout in the rurals is low, but of course that is anecdotal.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr. Arch on December 12, 2017, 01:10:37 PM
My colleague who works at a tech company in Alabama just voted for Jones. All of her colleagues over there voted for Jones too.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Devout Centrist on December 12, 2017, 01:10:51 PM
Folks, cool it with the turnout reports. In the words of a great man from New Jersey, “It don’t matter. None of this matters.”


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 01:12:03 PM
Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun :)

Quote
Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Young Conservative on December 12, 2017, 01:12:07 PM
If Jones wins, his approval will automatically be ten points negative. Same for Moore. Neither will win reelection.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 01:13:33 PM
Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.
*sigh*


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: ursulahx on December 12, 2017, 01:13:46 PM
Folks, cool it with the turnout reports. In the words of a great man from New Jersey, “It don’t matter. None of this matters.”


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 01:13:52 PM
If Jones wins, his approval will automatically be ten points negative. Same for Moore. Neither will win reelection.

Nope. Jones is gonna be in there forever


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GlobeSoc on December 12, 2017, 01:14:36 PM
early reports of extremely high turnout in Shelby county suggest massive win for JEB!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 01:15:08 PM
If Jones wins, his approval will automatically be ten points negative. Same for Moore. Neither will win reelection.

I'm not so sure about that.

If Moore wins, I'd think he'd win again in 2020. He'd certainly beat any primary challenge and if he won this election, he could win the next one. On the other hand, if Jones wins, Moore will likely run again in 2020 and win the nomination. And Jones might win again, possibly creating a scenario where Moore sabotages every single Alabama senate race for the GOP for years to come.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 01:15:22 PM
Folks, cool it with the turnout reports. In the words of a great man from New Jersey, “It don’t matter. None of this matters.”

Another reason to "discount turnout reports" is that this is a +30 R state. Even if dem turnout is way up and GOP turnout way down, there is still a huge whole to climb out out.

Imagine if a football team wins the second half 28-0....but went into halftime down 31-0.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 01:15:46 PM
If Jones wins, his approval will automatically be ten points negative. Same for Moore. Neither will win reelection.

Nope. Jones is gonna be in there forever
Lol I wish. I don't see him winning re-election unless the GOP nominates someone like Moore again in 2020.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: King Lear on December 12, 2017, 01:16:06 PM
If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

Seriously, that is written exactly like a Trump tweet.

Why can't the democrats learn how to play hardball "You elect a rapist, we keep are wrongly accused senators" However gillibrand is going to run us over the cliff into oblivion with her self-promoting culture wars instead of a real Left-wing Economic platform as promoted by Sanders and Warren.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 12, 2017, 01:21:27 PM
Another reason to "discount turnout reports" is that this is a +30 R state. Even if dem turnout is way up and GOP turnout way down, there is still a huge whole to climb out out.

The electorate in this special election isn't going to be nearly as R-friendly as the one that turned out in 2016, but then again you probably knew this already.

I'm not paying any attention to "turnout reports", especially after what happened last year and last month.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 01:22:01 PM
If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

Seriously, that is written exactly like a Trump tweet.

Why can't the democrats learn how to play hardballbe immoral "You elect a rapist, we keep are wrongly accused senatorscredibly accused serial harasser and groper" However gillibrand is going to run us over the cliff into oblivion with her self-promoting culture wars instead of a real Left-wing Economic platformthrowing away CO, VA, and FL as promoted by Sanders and Warren.

There. Fixed it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 01:22:29 PM
If Jones wins, his approval will automatically be ten points negative. Same for Moore. Neither will win reelection.

Nope. Jones is gonna be in there forever
Lol I wish. I don't see him winning re-election unless the GOP nominates someone like Moore again in 2020.

Alabama youth vote is very Democratic. By 2020, they will be the majority of Alabama voters and begin to cancel out the older Molestin' Moore cohort of voters


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GlobeSoc on December 12, 2017, 01:29:45 PM
If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

Seriously, that is written exactly like a Trump tweet.

Why can't the democrats learn how to play hardballbe immoral "You elect a rapist, we keep are wrongly accused senatorscredibly accused serial harasser and groper" However gillibrand is going to run us over the cliff into oblivion with her self-promoting culture wars instead of a real Left-wing Economic platformthrowing away CO, VA, and FL as promoted by Sanders and Warren.

There. Fixed it.

Why are you saying that a left-wing platform would throw away Colorado, Virginia, and Florida.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 12, 2017, 01:30:23 PM
Why can't the democrats learn how to play hardball "You elect a rapist, we keep are wrongly accused senators"

Dumping Franken *is* hardball.  They're dumping a Senator from their own party because he became a political liability.  Keeping a Senator even though he's a liability would mean going soft.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 01:31:25 PM
Quote
Mike Cason‏
Verified account
@MikeCasonAL

Montgomery County Probate Judge Steven Reed said that as of just before noon 16 percent of the county's voters had voted. Reed says he expects turnout for entire day to be "north of 25 percent" in county. #ALSEN


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 01:32:48 PM
If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

Seriously, that is written exactly like a Trump tweet.

Why can't the democrats learn how to play hardballbe immoral "You elect a rapist, we keep are wrongly accused senatorscredibly accused serial harasser and groper" However gillibrand is going to run us over the cliff into oblivion with her self-promoting culture wars instead of a real Left-wing Economic platformthrowing away CO, VA, and FL as promoted by Sanders and Warren.

There. Fixed it.

Why are you saying that a left-wing platform would throw away Colorado, Virginia, and Florida.

I think that those states won't vote for a sandersite...

But I'd rather not go off on a tangent about this.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: King Lear on December 12, 2017, 01:33:07 PM
If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

Seriously, that is written exactly like a Trump tweet.

Why can't the democrats learn how to play hardballbe immoral "You elect a rapist, we keep are wrongly accused senatorscredibly accused serial harasser and groper" However gillibrand is going to run us over the cliff into oblivion with her self-promoting culture wars instead of a real Left-wing Economic platformthrowing away CO, VA, and FL as promoted by Sanders and Warren.

There. Fixed it.
Warren will hold Colorado and Virginia, and Florida isn't voting for any democrats including gillibrand, obamas wins in Florida were total flukes driven by unusually high black turnout. Democrats usually win Florida only "once in a blue moon" due to conservative Cubans, disenfranchised black people, and massive amounts of retired affluent white voters (The GOP base).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: SoLongAtlas on December 12, 2017, 01:33:34 PM
Quote
Mike Cason‏
Verified account
@MikeCasonAL

Montgomery County Probate Judge Steven Reed said that as of just before noon 16 percent of the county's voters had voted. Reed says he expects turnout for entire day to be "north of 25 percent" in county. #ALSEN

People will vote after work. Expect turnout to increase across the board after 4 and 5 PM EST. Polls close at 7.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 01:34:27 PM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

FF


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 01:38:28 PM
High thrnout in Montgomery county is good for Jones?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 01:40:11 PM
I want to know how the heavily Republican counties are on turnout.

Especially rural ones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 12, 2017, 01:40:28 PM
The 25% turnout estimate from the SoS is likely to be a severe undershot.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Ye We Can on December 12, 2017, 01:41:56 PM
If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

Seriously, that is written exactly like a Trump tweet.

Why can't the democrats learn how to play hardballbe immoral "You elect a rapist, we keep are wrongly accused senatorscredibly accused serial harasser and groper" However gillibrand is going to run us over the cliff into oblivion with her self-promoting culture wars instead of a real Left-wing Economic platformthrowing away CO, VA, and FL as promoted by Sanders and Warren.

There. Fixed it.

Why are you saying that a left-wing platform would throw away Colorado, Virginia, and Florida.

Not neccesarly. We all expected Trump to lose badly in traditional R areas in 2016, and while he did in some cases, it wasnt enough to actually cost him the win considering the new voters he gained.
 
Dems can do this too.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 01:42:12 PM
I want to know how the heavily Republican counties are on turnout.

Especially rural ones.

That's what is so annoying about twitter on election day. Journalists and others NEVER travel to rural precincts to report. It is annoying.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 01:45:01 PM
I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

FF


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 12, 2017, 01:45:58 PM
Wow, it's looking like a landslide folks.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DOj5SjiW0AEKYem.jpg
https://twitter.com/AlanMCole/status/930268145029406720


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 01:46:30 PM
If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

Seriously, that is written exactly like a Trump tweet.

Why can't the democrats learn how to play hardballbe immoral "You elect a rapist, we keep are wrongly accused senatorscredibly accused serial harasser and groper" However gillibrand is going to run us over the cliff into oblivion with her self-promoting culture wars instead of a real Left-wing Economic platformthrowing away CO, VA, and FL as promoted by Sanders and Warren.

There. Fixed it.
Warren will hold Colorado and Virginia, and Florida isn't voting for any democrats including gillibrand, obamas wins in Florida were total flukes driven by unusually high black turnout. Democrats usually win Florida only "once in a blue moon" due to conservative Cubans, disenfranchised black people, and massive amounts of retired affluent white voters (The GOP base).
Lol wat
Florida going for Obama twice wasn't a fluke at all, it's been a perennial swing state since 1992.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 12, 2017, 01:46:33 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/GDouglasJones/status/940631672894246912

Doug Jones only kisses age-appropriate women.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 01:47:04 PM
early reports of extremely high turnout in Shelby county suggest massive win for JEB!

But what about Waukesha County????


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MasterJedi on December 12, 2017, 01:49:20 PM
Well, I'm fully expecting to throw up in the back of my mouth a lot tonight, hoping to be surprised and see Jones win, but I seriously doubt it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 01:50:01 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/GDouglasJones/status/940631672894246912

Doug Jones only kisses age-appropriate women.
Awww


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America Needs R'hllor on December 12, 2017, 01:51:10 PM
Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun :)

Quote
Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

Early reports of low turnout in industrial towns suggest massive landslide for Zionist Union


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 01:54:11 PM
I still think that Jones can win tonight but probably not. I can imagine him giving a victory speech tonight is all I am saying.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Jeppe on December 12, 2017, 01:54:31 PM
Early turnout reports in Virginia indicated an incoming Democratic wave, with turnout being remarkably high in NoVa.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: emailking on December 12, 2017, 01:55:31 PM
Very excited to see how this turns out tonight. I have ordered pizza and a cookie brownie to arrive 1 hour after poll close which is when  I hope the results will start getting exciting.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 01:57:11 PM
When do polls close?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 01:57:28 PM

7


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 01:57:45 PM

Eastern or central?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: emailking on December 12, 2017, 01:58:06 PM
central


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 01:58:45 PM

central..sorry for not pointing that out.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 12, 2017, 01:58:53 PM
Wow, it's looking like a landslide folks.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DOj5SjiW0AEKYem.jpg
https://twitter.com/AlanMCole/status/930268145029406720

Excellent. I was hoping someone would make one of those.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 02:07:42 PM
Well this is something...

https://mobile.twitter.com/jbouie/status/940644406079754240



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tender Branson on December 12, 2017, 02:10:10 PM
I am already weary of the exit polls that the networks will put out (considering the polls are varying from Jones+10 to Moore+10 ... :P)

It would be better to have no exit poll and only the vote count.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 02:10:31 PM
Well this is something...

https://mobile.twitter.com/jbouie/status/940644406079754240


Black voters are of course crucial for Jones, but he also needs to get at least 35% of the white vote if he's going to win this.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 02:11:07 PM
Quote
Bradley Baker‏
@bradley_baker
 11m11 minutes ago

I was voter 180 out of 691 possible voters for my polling place, Southside Library in Birmingham. ~26% turnout at 12:30pm cst.

Precinct was 62-36 Obama in '08; 65% white


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pandaguineapig on December 12, 2017, 02:11:39 PM
Well this is something...

https://mobile.twitter.com/jbouie/status/940644406079754240


Anecdotal stories from a tabloid writer. Wait till votes actually get counted


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 02:12:16 PM
Quote
Bradley Baker‏
@bradley_baker
 11m11 minutes ago

I was voter 180 out of 691 possible voters for my polling place, Southside Library in Birmingham. ~26% turnout at 12:30pm cst.

Precinct was 62-36 Obama in '08

26% now means on track for at least 50, right?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 12, 2017, 02:13:30 PM
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/364478-sessions-wont-say-who-he-voted-for-in-alabama

Sessions does not recall who he voted for. (Well, he probably does, but he won't say)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 02:15:12 PM
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/364478-sessions-wont-say-who-he-voted-for-in-alabama

Sessions does not recall who he voted for. (Well, he probably does, but he won't say)
Reality is like The Onion, now.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 02:18:46 PM
Jones will probably win more than 93% of the AA vote tonight.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 12, 2017, 02:19:32 PM
Well this is something...

https://mobile.twitter.com/jbouie/status/940644406079754240


Anecdotal stories from a tabloid writer. Wait till votes actually get counted

Jamelle Bouie isn't a tabloid writer. But then again it's too much to ask from you to know that.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 02:20:59 PM
Win or lose tonight, I am proud of Doug and the campaign he ran.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pandaguineapig on December 12, 2017, 02:22:25 PM
Well this is something...

https://mobile.twitter.com/jbouie/status/940644406079754240


Anecdotal stories from a tabloid writer. Wait till votes actually get counted

Jamelle Bouie isn't a tabloid writer. But then again it's too much to ask from you to know that.
Would you prefer "clickbait artist"?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 12, 2017, 02:22:53 PM
Quote
Bradley Baker‏
@bradley_baker
 11m11 minutes ago

I was voter 180 out of 691 possible voters for my polling place, Southside Library in Birmingham. ~26% turnout at 12:30pm cst.

Precinct was 62-36 Obama in '08

26% now means on track for at least 50, right?

For this precinct, maybe.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 12, 2017, 02:23:09 PM
Win or lose tonight, I am proud of Doug and the campaign he ran.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 02:23:35 PM


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on December 12, 2017, 02:23:42 PM
Win or lose tonight, I am proud of Doug and the campaign he ran.

He did a damn good job as a liberal in Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 02:28:19 PM
Just saw Doug give a quick interview with ABC. He seems VERY confident about tonight. I wonder if they have data that we don't. Maybe some internal polls?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Crumpets on December 12, 2017, 02:28:38 PM
I'm still holding on to my prediction of an extremely narrow Moore victory, but if there's any election this one reminds me of at this point, it's the Senate race in North Carolina in 2014 with the parties reversed. Maybe Jones will pull it out in the end, but there's really no argument that could be made to show he's a favorite until he leads with 98% of the vote counted.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 02:30:23 PM
Just saw Doug give a quick interview with ABC. He seems VERY confident about tonight. I wonder if they have data that we don't. Maybe some internal polls?

Do you expect a candidate to look like Eeyore on election day?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 02:31:55 PM
Just saw Doug give a quick interview with ABC. He seems VERY confident about tonight. I wonder if they have data that we don't. Maybe some internal polls?

Do you expect a candidate to look like Eeyore on election day?

Gillespie.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 12, 2017, 02:32:02 PM
Just saw Doug give a quick interview with ABC. He seems VERY confident about tonight. I wonder if they have data that we don't. Maybe some internal polls?

Do you expect a candidate to look like Eeyore on election day?

Yeah. Remember good old jeb._ ?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 02:32:42 PM


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 02:33:05 PM
Btw FOX firmly believes that their poll showing Jones at +10 is accurate. Might be a tactic to turnoff likely Jones voters but who knows


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 02:35:17 PM
22% turnout by 1:30pm

Quote
Sam Levine
@srl

Probate judge in Jefferson County, Ala. (state's most populous) says turnout is about 22% -- a little higher than usual for a special election. Says he hasn't heard of any issues out of the ordinary at the polls


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 02:37:24 PM
22% turnout by 1:30pm

Quote
Sam Levine
@srl

Probate judge in Jefferson County, Ala. (state's most populous) says turnout is about 22% -- a little higher than usual for a special election. Says he hasn't heard of any issues out of the ordinary at the polls

Clinton won the county 51.6-44.3% btw so this favors Jones, whom I expect to win the county by a significantly larger margin than Hillary.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 02:38:20 PM
22% turnout by 1:30pm

Quote
Sam Levine
@srl

Probate judge in Jefferson County, Ala. (state's most populous) says turnout is about 22% -- a little higher than usual for a special election. Says he hasn't heard of any issues out of the ordinary at the polls

22 already??


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 02:38:38 PM
Btw FOX firmly believes that their poll showing Jones at +10 is accurate. Might be a tactic to turnoff likely Jones voters but who knows


Or to pump out republicans on the sidelines.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 02:39:05 PM
22% turnout by 1:30pm

Quote
Sam Levine
@srl

Probate judge in Jefferson County, Ala. (state's most populous) says turnout is about 22% -- a little higher than usual for a special election. Says he hasn't heard of any issues out of the ordinary at the polls

Compared to the 25% expectation - this is high. Easily going to beat 30% turnout overall with those numbers.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 02:39:46 PM
I have read every election thread on here since 2013, and it seems like turnout reports are favorable for democrats in every single one.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 02:40:42 PM
I hate to be the first one to make assumptions based on turnout but I would say that is good news for Jones. But it needs to exceed 50% and he has to win the county by a larger margin than Hillary did, something I can easily see happening.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pandaguineapig on December 12, 2017, 02:40:45 PM
Are there any reports from rural counties?, if their turnout is anywhere close to the larger counties Jones has an impossible path, if it's lower Jones can win this


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 12, 2017, 02:43:01 PM
50% turnout is a bit unrealistic with it being a special election and a small, but significant share of regular GOP voters staying home.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 02:43:30 PM
I have read every election thread on here since 2013, and it seems like turnout reports are favorable for democrats in every single one.

City counties like to report their turnout numbers, while rurals are hard to project data from due to their lack of voters, and suburbs always tend to lag due to the majority of votes coming in post-work after the commute. So yeah, I could see why turnout reports tend to have a D-Bias. However, I remember times when they favored pubs - Wayne county in 2016 for example.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 02:43:37 PM
Are there any reports from rural counties?, if their turnout is anywhere close to the larger counties Jones has an impossible path, if it's lower Jones can win this

Anecdotal stuff from Twitter says low turnouts in rural areas but it's stuff like: " I went to vote and there was like 8 people in line and they were old"


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 02:44:17 PM
Are there any reports from rural counties?, if their turnout is anywhere close to the larger counties Jones has an impossible path, if it's lower Jones can win this

Zero


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 02:46:51 PM
Quote
The Fairhope Times
The Fairhope Times
@Fairhope_Times

Light special election voter turnout this morning at #Fairhope city hall

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 02:47:48 PM
We are beginning to see what happened with Virginia. Depressing turnout in GOP strongholds and impressive numbers from cities.

https://twitter.com/Fairhope_Times/status/940666980255793152 (https://twitter.com/Fairhope_Times/status/940666980255793152)

Fairhope is supposed to be a Moore stronghold


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 02:48:05 PM
This is sounding like GA-06 were people thought the higher turnout favored Ossoff but it actually pulled Handel over the line due to sheer numbers


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 02:48:19 PM
Quote
The Fairhope Times
The Fairhope Times
@Fairhope_Times

Light special election voter turnout this morning at #Fairhope city hall

()

Oooh...That's Baldwin County, a key area for Moore:

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 02:49:11 PM
This is sounding like GA-06 were people thought the higher turnout favored Ossoff but it actually pulled Handel over the line due to sheer numbers

I actually remember the opposite... high turnout in Handel-favored precincts.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: ursulahx on December 12, 2017, 02:51:02 PM
Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kantakouzenos on December 12, 2017, 02:51:09 PM
It would be helpful if statewide turnout was being measured as well.  


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 02:53:04 PM
This is sounding like GA-06 were people thought the higher turnout favored Ossoff but it actually pulled Handel over the line due to sheer numbers

One difference is that the massive early vote in GA-06 made election day turnout reports hard to figure (or rather, even harder than they already are.)  AL doesn't have no-excuse absentee voting, so the vast majority of votes will be cast on E-Day.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 02:54:05 PM
This is sounding like GA-06 were people thought the higher turnout favored Ossoff but it actually pulled Handel over the line due to sheer numbers


Handel didnt molest teenage girls, high turnout could mean anything in this election.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 02:54:28 PM
please don't give me any hope yet.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 02:54:37 PM
Quote
Mary Sell
@DD_MarySell

As of 1:45 pm, Sec of State @JohnHMerrill is estimating 25 percent voter turnout today. Up from 18 percent in August primary, 15 in GOP runoff.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 02:57:32 PM
Quote
Jenn Horton
Jenn Horton
@JennWSFA

Montgomery Co Election Center reports an "extraordinary turnout" for today's race, suspects the state race is also pushing voters to the polls. Sending additional workers to 3 precincts


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on December 12, 2017, 02:58:04 PM
Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.

The AL GOP needed to be exposed and prosecuted for their blatantly obvious fraud in 2002 (they didn't even try to hide it well). When you let them get away with it once, they'll do it again and again.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:00:01 PM
Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.

The AL GOP needed to be exposed and prosecuted for their blatantly obvious fraud in 2002 (they didn't even try to hide it well). When you let them get away with it once, they'll do it again and again.

Didn't someone say that a court had ordered them to preserve the records?

Also, five hours until polls close.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 03:02:16 PM
Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.

The AL GOP needed to be exposed and prosecuted for their blatantly obvious fraud in 2002 (they didn't even try to hide it well). When you let them get away with it once, they'll do it again and again.

Didn't someone say that a court had ordered them to preserve the records?

Also, five hours until polls close.

Yes, but I saw a report that the AL Supreme Court stayed the order.  http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364430-alabama-supreme-court-stays-order-to-preserve-voting-records-in-senate


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: jman123 on December 12, 2017, 03:04:57 PM
How is turnout in rural areas ? Is the GOP turnout depressed?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 03:06:49 PM
Someone needs to slap some sense into me so I don't get my hopes up.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Suburbia on December 12, 2017, 03:08:08 PM
My mind pick says Moore, it is a conservative place. Heart pick says Jones, but barely.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:08:14 PM


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 03:09:24 PM
Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.

The AL GOP needed to be exposed and prosecuted for their blatantly obvious fraud in 2002 (they didn't even try to hide it well). When you let them get away with it once, they'll do it again and again.

Didn't someone say that a court had ordered them to preserve the records?

Also, five hours until polls close.

It was effectively overturned by a higher court. There is a certain margin where it becomes so blatantly obvious that they have to certify a Jones win, but as I said yesterday, if it's Jones by <10,000 , or maybe even a bit bigger than that, AL will fraud the vote and make it a Moore win.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 03:10:15 PM
Quote
Kira Lerner
@kira_lerner

This is 100% anecdotal and might mean nothing, but I have never seen this many people steadily stream into the polls throughout the day of an election


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:13:31 PM
Too late. You guys are getting my hopes up. Damn it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 03:15:44 PM
Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V (https://t.co/msdK042e8V)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pandaguineapig on December 12, 2017, 03:15:50 PM
Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.

The AL GOP needed to be exposed and prosecuted for their blatantly obvious fraud in 2002 (they didn't even try to hide it well). When you let them get away with it once, they'll do it again and again.

Didn't someone say that a court had ordered them to preserve the records?

Also, five hours until polls close.

It was effectively overturned by a higher court. There is a certain margin where it becomes so blatantly obvious that they have to certify a Jones win, but as I said yesterday, if it's Jones by <10,000 , or maybe even a bit bigger than that, AL will fraud the vote and make it a Moore win.
Or they can use the Minnesota tactic of "finding" boxes of uncounted votes


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: DFL on December 12, 2017, 03:16:14 PM
If Jones wins tonight I’ll start believing in miracles again


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Virginiá on December 12, 2017, 03:16:41 PM
Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.

The AL GOP needed to be exposed and prosecuted for their blatantly obvious fraud in 2002 (they didn't even try to hide it well). When you let them get away with it once, they'll do it again and again.

Didn't someone say that a court had ordered them to preserve the records?

Also, five hours until polls close.

It was effectively overturned by a higher court. There is a certain margin where it becomes so blatantly obvious that they have to certify a Jones win, but as I said yesterday, if it's Jones by <10,000 , or maybe even a bit bigger than that, AL will fraud the vote and make it a Moore win.

Also from what I read, this is just digital records. Paper ballots are still preserved. I really don't understand why the state is so gung-ho about wanting the ability to destroy these records immediately, but if the physical ballots still exist, this whole thing seems like less of an issue. I mean, it's not like if someone decided to stuff some ballots they couldn't also "digitalize" their efforts as well.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 03:16:48 PM
The only way Jones can pull it is if enough Republicans cast write in votes. Then again, it was supposed to hurt Trump everywhere in 2016.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 12, 2017, 03:20:47 PM
Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

What a surprise.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 03:20:52 PM
This is sounding like GA-06 were people thought the higher turnout favored Ossoff but it actually pulled Handel over the line due to sheer numbers

I actually remember the opposite... high turnout in Handel-favored precincts.

In retrospect/after the election was over, that was clear, yes. In the run-up to the polls closing, it wasn't so obvious. This is why precinct turnout reports shared in threads like this are pretty useless unless somebody is tracking them all in a sheet or something; with hundreds (or in this case, thousands) of precincts, getting reports for 1% of them isn't exactly accurate. GA-6 also had the ED/EV divide to contend with, which is obviously not a real issue here.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tintrlvr on December 12, 2017, 03:21:03 PM
Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V (https://t.co/msdK042e8V)

This should temper some enthusiasm here; turnout may just be high everywhere. Limestone County is likely to see a higher-than-average swing to Jones relative to 2016 Pres but should still be solidly for Moore overall.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Ebsy on December 12, 2017, 03:22:19 PM
Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V (https://t.co/msdK042e8V)
Not what the article actually says:

Probate Judge Charles Woodroof said he and Limestone County Sheriff Mike Blakely had visited about half the county's 25 precincts by lunch today. Woodroof believes the turnout is at least 30 percent and could be closer to 35.

“If we have a good late afternoon push, we could hit 40 percent,” he said. “That's pretty good for a two-person ballot.”


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 03:24:01 PM
Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V (https://t.co/msdK042e8V)

This should temper some enthusiasm here; turnout may just be high everywhere. Limestone County is likely to see a higher-than-average swing to Jones relative to 2016 Pres but should still be solidly for Moore overall.

Quote
Kyle Whitmire
@WarOnDumb

There's potentially a sweet spot here for Jones. Lower turnout could mean African American, women and millennial voters didn't show up. That's unlikely now. Too high and it could look like a typical AL presidential election with high GOP turnout, which is looking more likely.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 03:27:09 PM
Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V (https://t.co/msdK042e8V)
Not what the article actually says:

Probate Judge Charles Woodroof said he and Limestone County Sheriff Mike Blakely had visited about half the county's 25 precincts by lunch today. Woodroof believes the turnout is at least 30 percent and could be closer to 35.

“If we have a good late afternoon push, we could hit 40 percent,” he said. “That's pretty good for a two-person ballot.”


He's making some bold assumptions when he says turnout could hit 40%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 12, 2017, 03:33:45 PM
https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:34:21 PM
https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 12, 2017, 03:35:23 PM
https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

It's a big R county. Also has a ton of votes.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on December 12, 2017, 03:35:32 PM
https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

Trump received 77% last November


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Devout Centrist on December 12, 2017, 03:36:12 PM
IF Doug Jones gets anywhere close to 45% in Baldwin, it’s over.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 03:36:34 PM
Baldwin County played a strange role during the 2002 gubernatorial election.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:38:34 PM
https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

Trump received 77% last November

!!

What are the chances Russell is right??


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 03:39:45 PM
It seems like everything that Jones needs to win is happening


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 03:39:51 PM
https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Is Baldwin considered R or D leaning?

Trump received 77% last November

!!

What are the chances Russell is right??

We wont know untill results come in.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 12, 2017, 03:40:07 PM
Dave Wasserman's benchmarks have Jones needing to get at least 35% in Baldwin.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c9-tuc5E1ZzTEqecVp0D-cpxu2ab3ug9_XEt6R9vMcw/edit#gid=0


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 03:40:53 PM
https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

What makes him think jones will do well in that county?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:41:17 PM
It seems like everything that Jones needs to win is happening

I'm thinking that too, but I reeeealllly don't want to get my hopes up.

But it's tough, between:

1. This turnout data
2. Jones' confidence
3. Fox's apparent confidence in their poll


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 03:41:24 PM
It seems like everything that Jones needs to win is happening

()
Don't jinx it!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: King Lear on December 12, 2017, 03:41:43 PM
Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:42:15 PM
Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

If Jones wins, this is the new "Rain in NoVa".


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 03:42:25 PM
It seems like everything that Jones needs to win is happening

I'm thinking that too, but I reeeealllly don't want to get my hopes up.

But it's tough, between:

1. This turnout data
2. Jones' confidence
3. Fox's apparent confidence in their poll

How can you make ANY assumptions about turnout data at this point when we have no clue what is happening in 60%+ of the state?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 03:43:00 PM
Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.
CITATION NEEDED

Also horrific spelling


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 03:43:19 PM
https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Any chance Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell is the world's biggest troll by moonlight?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 12, 2017, 03:43:57 PM
It could be that Emerson not Fox called the race.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 03:44:27 PM
Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

Is this a sock of LimoLiberal?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:45:10 PM
It seems like everything that Jones needs to win is happening

I'm thinking that too, but I reeeealllly don't want to get my hopes up.

But it's tough, between:

1. This turnout data
2. Jones' confidence
3. Fox's apparent confidence in their poll

How can you make ANY assumptions about turnout data at this point when we have no clue what is happening in 60%+ of the state?

Turnout data is a very limited and innaccurate window, I'm aware. However, the snippets we do know look good for Jones. Not definitive, though, which is why I'm trying not to get my hopes up.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 03:45:14 PM
Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

Is this a sock of LimoLiberal?

Seems likely, just some how has worse spelling....


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: KingSweden on December 12, 2017, 03:45:35 PM
Seriously - let’s all pump the brakes on turnout anecdotes or “projections” from random local officials.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 12, 2017, 03:45:54 PM
Is it me or has IceSpear been conspicuously absent from this thread today? :P


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:46:18 PM
Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

Is this a sock of LimoLiberal?

I mean, I initially didn't think so, but now...

Can someone do a side-by-side of this with the infamous "Rain in NoVa" post?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: heatcharger on December 12, 2017, 03:46:38 PM
NYT Results + Model is out. (https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones)

They've got one of those Estimated Votes Remaining thing, and I assume their estimates are based on a tied race. They think Jones needs 65% in Jefferson, 54% in Mobile, 54% in Madison, and 41% in Shelby (how?) to name a few.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:47:50 PM
Seriously - let’s all pump the brakes on turnout anecdotes or “projections” from random local officials.

No. We need to comment on every tiny little report if we want to get to Megathread 4.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 03:47:59 PM
Impale me on the needle.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 03:49:42 PM
So the Estimated Votes section of NYT is basically predicting a Jones victory.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: heatcharger on December 12, 2017, 03:50:24 PM
So the Estimated Votes section of NYT is basically predicting a Jones victory.

So a tied race = Jones victory now? Great news!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 03:50:40 PM
Is it me or has IceSpear been conspicuously absent from this thread today? :P
yeah its weird, but you know he will be back to gloat if Moore wins


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Virginiá on December 12, 2017, 03:50:59 PM
Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: King Lear on December 12, 2017, 03:51:33 PM
Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

Is this a sock of LimoLiberal?

I mean, I initially didn't think so, but now...

Can someone do a side-by-side of this with the infamous "Rain in NoVa" post?
We'll see who's right at the end of the night.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:51:49 PM
Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 03:52:22 PM
There is reportedly very nice weather in 'Bama so no "Rain in NoVa" panic posts necessary.

I feel like we should make shirts saying: "I survived the Rain in NoVa"


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 03:53:03 PM
There is reportedly very nice weather in 'Bama so no "Rain in NoVa" panic posts necessary.

I feel like we should make shirts saying: "I survived the Rain in NoVa"

Didnt stop LimoLiberal from trying.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 03:53:53 PM
Like I said it's looking like GA-06 all over again https://mobile.twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940685709161189376


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 03:54:02 PM
There is reportedly very nice weather in 'Bama so no "Rain in NoVa" panic posts necessary.

I feel like we should make shirts saying: "I survived the Rain in NoVa"

Didnt stop LimoLiberal from trying.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 12, 2017, 03:54:07 PM
45% in Baldwin would point to the Fox News poll being more or less correct.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 03:54:14 PM
The posters on PredictIt are so vehemently pro-Moore it's disturbing...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 12, 2017, 03:54:59 PM

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 03:55:07 PM
So if Jones manages to obtain 45% in Baldwin he will win by a landslide? That's what the Fox poll is predicting.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 03:55:29 PM
The posters on PredictIt are so vehemently pro-Moore it's disturbing...



Aggressive right wing commentors screaming conspiracy theories have turned left leaning commentors from the comments section in most sites for a few years now.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on December 12, 2017, 03:55:31 PM
PredictIt has been a cesspool of villainy for a while now.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 03:55:38 PM
Like I said it's looking like GA-06 all over again https://mobile.twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940685709161189376

This is his post after that one:

Quote
Richard Allen Smith
@rockrichard
Replying to @davculberg

Not at all. Numbers seem to be up, but the nonrepresenative sample of rural counties I've seen shows them lagging behind more urban/suburban turf. Good for Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 03:55:53 PM


RIP HP


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Mikado on December 12, 2017, 03:56:23 PM
Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?

Has anyone ever paid close enough attention to an Alabama race to know this?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:56:48 PM
The posters on PredictIt are so vehemently pro-Moore it's disturbing...

Not surprising...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: King Lear on December 12, 2017, 03:57:16 PM
Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?
I don't know this for sure but my gut tells me Jones will start with a massive lead which will be whittled down quickly and by the end of the night Moore will win by 10 points give or take a couple.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 03:57:20 PM
I mean, they constantly call Kamala Harris "Kameltoe" and they make sexist remarks against female politicians. It's a cesspool of idiocy.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 03:57:50 PM
Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?

Has anyone ever paid close enough attention to an Alabama race to know this?

The last competitive statewide election in Alabama seems to have been all the way back in 2002 so we're more or less going in blind.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 03:58:26 PM
Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?
I don't know this for sure but my gut tells me Jones will start with a massive lead which will be whittled down quickly and by the end of the night Moore will win by 10 points give or take a couple.

Well, someone should tell Alabamians there's no need to vote. King Lear's got it all figured out.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 03:58:42 PM
Like I said it's looking like GA-06 all over again https://mobile.twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940685709161189376

This is his post after that one:

Quote
Richard Allen Smith
@rockrichard
Replying to @davculberg

Not at all. Numbers seem to be up, but the nonrepresenative sample of rural counties I've seen shows them lagging behind more urban/suburban turf. Good for Jones.
I hope he's right because I can't the feeling Moore is going to win based on sheer tribalism and that the more right leaning suburb we hope break against Moore come home


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Devout Centrist on December 12, 2017, 03:59:08 PM
IIRC, the vote comes in rather, erm, all over the place. Basically, it seems that urban areas more or less report alongside rural counties.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 03:59:26 PM
I saw a few of Trump twitter's token African Americans tweeting their support for Moore. Do they not know that regardless of political affiliation, Roy Moore believes they are genetically inferior and worthless?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 03:59:53 PM
Black belt appears to be delivering:

Quote
Richard Allen Smith
@rockrichard
Replying to @emersonhbryant

I hear turnout is high all over. Only Black Belt county I've heard specific info on is Russell, where turnout is on par for Nov 16 levels

Quote
Richard Allen Smith
@rockrichard
Replying to @PatrickRuffini

I'm hearing of similar turnout spikes across the state. Yes, higher turnout places like Jefferson County, Mobile, etc., but also in places like Russel and other less dense Black Belt counties.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:00:30 PM
My confidence in Jones is growing back


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Perlen vor den Schweinen on December 12, 2017, 04:00:44 PM
I saw a few of Trump twitter's token African Americans tweeting their support for Moore. Do they not know that regardless of political affiliation, Roy Moore believes they are genetically inferior and worthless?

They must own teh libs, you see.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 04:01:13 PM
Levelled it up at 50 all. Given Atlasia was quite pro-Hilldawg this is great news for Moore!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 04:01:50 PM
I saw a few of Trump twitter's token African Americans tweeting their support for Moore. Do they not know that regardless of political affiliation, Roy Moore believes they are genetically inferior and worthless?


Knowing a few pro-trump trans posters(used to be slightly more but over a year like half the ones i knew stopped supporting him after the military enlistment ban and other things). They probably think that their the good ones so its ok.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 12, 2017, 04:01:59 PM
Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?

Has anyone ever paid close enough attention to an Alabama race to know this?

The last competitive statewide election in Alabama seems to have been all the way back in 2002 so we're more or less going in blind.

Erm, no, not really.

Dem. Lt.G. Jim Folsom Jr. won with 50.61% of the vote in 2006, and now-Gov. Kay Ivey only beat him with 51.47% of the vote in 2010.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:02:27 PM
Mobile is expected to go to Jones right?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 04:02:41 PM
Quote
Richard Allen Smith
Richard Allen Smith
@rockrichard

1342 votes so far at First Baptist in Huntsville. That precinct had 2831 total votes in Nov. 2016


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 04:03:13 PM
Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?

Has anyone ever paid close enough attention to an Alabama race to know this?

The last competitive statewide election in Alabama seems to have been all the way back in 2002 so we're more or less going in blind.

Erm, no, not really.

Dem. Lt.G. Jim Folsom Jr. won with 50.61% of the vote in 2006, and now-Gov. Kay Ivey only beat him with 51.47% of the vote in 2010.

Oh, okay. Lets use that as a bench mark then.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 04:04:42 PM
Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?

Has anyone ever paid close enough attention to an Alabama race to know this?

The last competitive statewide election in Alabama seems to have been all the way back in 2002 so we're more or less going in blind.

I think the Moore-Strange margin was relatively constant through the night, if that helps.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 04:05:02 PM
FWIW, predictit seems unimpressed by all the turnout reports on twitter

The prices are virtually the same as they were this morning, with moore actually 1 cent higher


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 04:07:18 PM
FWIW, predictit seems unimpressed by all the turnout reports on twitter

The prices are virtually the same as they were this morning, with moore actually 1 cent higher

Well Im unimpressed by predictit so...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 04:07:34 PM
FWIW, predictit seems unimpressed by all the turnout reports on twitter

The prices are virtually the same as they were this morning, with moore actually 1 cent higher

Huh, predictit not overreactign to every little thing? Color me surprised.

I guess people realize this race is too unpredictable to bet too much on.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:09:31 PM
FWIW, predictit seems unimpressed by all the turnout reports on twitter

The prices are virtually the same as they were this morning, with moore actually 1 cent higher

So? The same people betting on that market are one-sided right-wingers celebrating that their accused-pedophile of a candidate is probably going to win in a state that makes Poland look like Vermont and that they can't wait to rub it in. That's how desperate conservatives are for bragging rights in an age of failed republican leadership.

Btw, they're posting dick pics now. Don't take them seriously.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 04:10:51 PM
FWIW, predictit seems unimpressed by all the turnout reports on twitter

The prices are virtually the same as they were this morning, with moore actually 1 cent higher

So? The same people betting on that market are one-sided right-wingers celebrating that their accused-pedophile of a candidate is probably going to win in a state that makes Poland look like Vermont and that they can't wait to rub it in. That's how desperate conservatives are for bragging rights in an age of failed republican leadership.

I have read the comment section and they aren't nearly as one sided as you think


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:11:40 PM
FWIW, predictit seems unimpressed by all the turnout reports on twitter

The prices are virtually the same as they were this morning, with moore actually 1 cent higher

So? The same people betting on that market are one-sided right-wingers celebrating that their accused-pedophile of a candidate is probably going to win in a state that makes Poland look like Vermont and that they can't wait to rub it in. That's how desperate conservatives are for bragging rights in an age of failed republican leadership.

I have read the comment section and they aren't nearly as one sided as you think

I've been aimlessly monitoring it for two hours now and all it is is sh**tposting. They're posting dick pics now.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:15:16 PM
I wonder who's feeling more confident. Fox or Emerson?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 04:16:06 PM
Polls close at 8 ET. Follow results at: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

Results coverage will be at the linked thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261809.new#new, however I do ask that the following stay on THIS thread: Paragraphs/Essay-Style #Analysis, Discussion of whether the Senate should expel Moore, Discussion of whether AL should secede from the union, and Discussion of whether IceSpear should leave the forum.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 04:16:40 PM
I wonder who's feeling more confident. Fox or Emerson?

Emerson probably doesn't give two craps about how accurate they are.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 04:16:48 PM
I wonder who's feeling more confident. Fox or Emerson?

Emerson is closer to conventional wisdom, so I'd say Fox.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 04:17:43 PM
Win or lose tonight, I am proud of Doug and the campaign he ran.
Damn right. Doug has run a nearly flawless campaign, and if he does lose it'll be solely because Alabama is too red for any Democrat to win.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: cvparty on December 12, 2017, 04:17:53 PM
Polls close at 8 ET. Follow results at: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

Results coverage will be at the linked thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261809.new#new, however I do ask that the following stay on THIS thread: Paragraphs/Essay-Style #Analysis, Discussion of whether the Senate should expel Moore, Discussion of whether AL should secede from the union, and Discussion of whether IceSpear should leave the forum.
was just about to post that link :P I like the projected tie map they made near the bottom of the page


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: heatcharger on December 12, 2017, 04:18:04 PM
Polls close at 8 ET. Follow results at: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

Results coverage will be at the linked thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261809.new#new, however I do ask that the following stay on THIS thread: Paragraphs/Essay-Style #Analysis, Discussion of whether the Senate should expel Moore, Discussion of whether AL should secede from the union, and Discussion of whether IceSpear should leave the forum.

Not sure why Wulfric got to dictate these terms. I had no part in these negotiations, and are therefore invalidated.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 12, 2017, 04:19:47 PM
Polls close at 8 ET. Follow results at: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

Results coverage will be at the linked thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261809.new#new, however I do ask that the following stay on THIS thread: Paragraphs/Essay-Style #Analysis, Discussion of whether the Senate should expel Moore, Discussion of whether AL should secede from the union, and Discussion of whether IceSpear should leave the forum.

Not sure why Wulfric got to dictate these terms. I had no part in these negotiations, and are therefore invalidated.

Re-call Wulfric!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 04:22:29 PM
High turnout in Shelby County, but they are seeing a lot more younger and minority voters than typical:

Quote
1:55 p.m.
Voter turnout appears heavier than expected in one of Alabama’s most reliably Republican counties in the U.S. Senate election, and officials say they’re not just seeing the usual GOP crowd.

Shelby County Probate Judge Jim Fuhrmeister says turnout appears higher than normal among young people and black voters in Tuesday’s balloting. That could help Democrat Doug Jones against Republican Roy Moore.

Democrats have a table outside one of the county’s largest voting precincts in Helena, and volunteers from the Jones campaign are canvassing neighborhoods in normally Republican areas.
Fuhrmeister says he isn’t predicting a Democratic win, but he expects the party to see some results for its efforts.

Shelby County, just south of Birmingham, is one of Alabama’s most affluent counties.

Source (http://www.therepublic.com/2017/12/12/us-alabama-senate-the-latest-7/)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 04:23:37 PM
High turnout in Shelby County, but they are seeing a lot more younger and minority voters than typical:

Quote
1:55 p.m.
Voter turnout appears heavier than expected in one of Alabama’s most reliably Republican counties in the U.S. Senate election, and officials say they’re not just seeing the usual GOP crowd.

Shelby County Probate Judge Jim Fuhrmeister says turnout appears higher than normal among young people and black voters in Tuesday’s balloting. That could help Democrat Doug Jones against Republican Roy Moore.

Democrats have a table outside one of the county’s largest voting precincts in Helena, and volunteers from the Jones campaign are canvassing neighborhoods in normally Republican areas.
Fuhrmeister says he isn’t predicting a Democratic win, but he expects the party to see some results for its efforts.

Shelby County, just south of Birmingham, is one of Alabama’s most affluent counties.

Source (http://www.therepublic.com/2017/12/12/us-alabama-senate-the-latest-7/)

Seems in line with what we've heard elsewhere.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:25:02 PM
Looking promising!

https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/940681439737188352 (https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/940681439737188352)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 04:26:51 PM
Looking promising!

https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/940681439737188352 (https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/940681439737188352)

Well, there goes me not getting my hopes up. They're up.

Also, +940 is on the 2016 totals? Or just 940 votes??


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Matty on December 12, 2017, 04:27:39 PM
If Moore is seen as toxic to so many GOP leaning voters, why did he win the primary by a comfortable margin?

Why didn't they come out and vote against him in the runoff?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: JA on December 12, 2017, 04:27:56 PM
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 04:28:08 PM
Quote
That's how desperate conservatives are for bragging rights in an age of failed republican leadership.

Puhleeze. Moore's been outspent 14:1 by Democrats. Desperation? Pitching 50 million to win a Senate race in Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 04:28:51 PM
If Moore is seen as toxic to so many GOP leaning voters, why did he win the primary by a comfortable margin?

Why didn't they come out and vote against him in the runoff?

The scandal story broke after the runoff.  If it had happened earlier, I'm sure Moore would have lost.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 04:28:58 PM
Looking promising!

https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/940681439737188352 (https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/940681439737188352)

An upper-middle class precinct in Birmingham might be significantly more pro-Moore than Jefferson County as a whole, though


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on December 12, 2017, 04:29:01 PM
If Moore is seen as toxic to so many GOP leaning voters, why did he win the primary by a comfortable margin?

Why didn't they come out and vote against him in the runoff?

Moore only won the runoff by 10%, and that was before the allegations.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:29:30 PM
More good news!

https://twitter.com/AlabamaBlueDot/status/940667488274210816 (https://twitter.com/AlabamaBlueDot/status/940667488274210816)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on December 12, 2017, 04:30:26 PM
What's the turnout like in Moore favored counties?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 04:31:53 PM
What's the turnout like in Moore favored counties?

No real idea.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 04:32:07 PM
The close Lt. Governor race makes me a little hopeful enough republicans are willing to cross over.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 04:32:16 PM
How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:32:55 PM
https://twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940694880371781634 (https://twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940694880371781634)

We're getting a lot of good turnout reports for Jones. That's what happened for Northam.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 04:34:08 PM
Quote
That's how desperate conservatives are for bragging rights in an age of failed republican leadership.

Puhleeze. Moore's been outspent 14:1 by Democrats. Desperation? Pitching 50 million to win a Senate race in Alabama.
That's not desperation at all when you have a real chance of winning the race.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 04:35:10 PM
https://twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940694880371781634 (https://twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940694880371781634)

We're getting a lot of good turnout reports for Jones. That's what happened for Northam.
We also got a lot of good turnout reports for HRC in 2016, so tread cautiously.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 04:35:26 PM
How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

The ultra-wealthy tend to not like child molesting perverts.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 04:36:09 PM
I love this guy. Oh my god.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 04:36:48 PM
Quote
Talking to voters from a predominantly black neighborhood outside of Birmingham with a sizable LGBT population who got in line to vote at 8:30. They didn’t get to vote until 10:15.

https://twitter.com/Eugene_Scott/status/940651005225598976


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 04:37:56 PM
From a Vox reporter:

Quote

Ella Nilsen‏
Verified account
@ella_nilsen

Ella Nilsen Retweeted Sahil Kapur
Just got off the phone with Birmingham City Councilor Sheila Tyson: "The lines have been long, the parking lots jam-packed. These African American communities are turning up, and they turning out.”


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 04:38:02 PM
So the Estimated Votes section of NYT is basically predicting a Jones victory.

It's actually a 453-vote Moore win assuming I made no mistakes:



Here are NYT's initial margin estimates for an approximately-tied race by county in spreadsheet format. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z9bZbslA_YtxEO9h6lhFygA4Io9qTHN11DXM5-SoZqU/edit?usp=sharing)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 04:38:36 PM
How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

Isn't this the Whole Foods district? I remember there being a very Jones-favorable informal poll there.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 04:38:56 PM
The. Most. Bipolar. Thread. Ever.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 04:39:51 PM

Some people might feel just the opposite. ;)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:42:20 PM
I try not to get my hopes up but from what we are seeing, pro-Jones county turnout is skyrocketing with loads of minority and young turnout while Moore's strongholds aren't too exciting...

If this is true, Fox may have gotten this election right


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Silent Hunter on December 12, 2017, 04:43:32 PM
https://twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940694880371781634 (https://twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940694880371781634)

We're getting a lot of good turnout reports for Jones. That's what happened for Northam.
We also got a lot of good turnout reports for HRC in 2016, so tread cautiously.

True, although there's no electoral college here.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 04:43:54 PM
"Jones is ahead"

"Jones is screwed"

"Jones is ahead"

"Jones is screwed"

"Jones is ahead"

"Jones is screwed"

"Jones is ahead"

"Jones is screwed"




Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mvd10 on December 12, 2017, 04:44:40 PM
How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

I wouldn't be too surprised if they voted for Moore. Ultra-wealthy areas in Southern states are hilariously Republican and Trump won plenty of those places by huge margins even though he collapsed in wealthy California and NYC suburbs (and ultimately most of the wealthiest places are there).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:44:53 PM
Apparently turnout is booming in Birmingham which is Doug territory.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 04:45:07 PM
https://twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940694880371781634 (https://twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940694880371781634)

We're getting a lot of good turnout reports for Jones. That's what happened for Northam.
We also got a lot of good turnout reports for HRC in 2016, so tread cautiously.

True, although there's no electoral college here.
I recall individual state turnout reports being favorable to HRC, not just nationally.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on December 12, 2017, 04:45:40 PM
Apparently turnout is booming in Birmingham which is Doug territory.
That's what we need for a win tonight.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 12, 2017, 04:45:51 PM
Apparently turnout is booming in Birmingham which is Doug territory.

Citation needed.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 04:45:59 PM
Forget my signature, this man is America's new Sweetheart.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 04:46:29 PM
Nate Silver, Troll-in-Chief of FiveThirtyEight:

Nate Silver‏Verified account
@NateSilver538
Follow Follow @NateSilver538
More
Wow, hearing lots of reports of high turnout in areas that confirm my priors.
1:39 PM - 12 Dec 2017


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 12, 2017, 04:46:41 PM
Can't dougie the Dougie. I will ride this ship to the end and sink with it if I have to.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 12, 2017, 04:47:26 PM
Polls close at 8 ET. Follow results at: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

Results coverage will be at the linked thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261809.new#new, however I do ask that the following stay on THIS thread: Paragraphs/Essay-Style #Analysis, Discussion of whether the Senate should expel Moore, Discussion of whether AL should secede from the union, and Discussion of whether IceSpear should leave the forum.

Not sure why Wulfric got to dictate these terms. I had no part in these negotiations, and are therefore invalidated.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:48:27 PM
Apparently turnout is booming in Birmingham which is Doug territory.

Citation needed.

https://twitter.com/ella_nilsen/status/940696121890037761 (https://twitter.com/ella_nilsen/status/940696121890037761)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 04:50:19 PM
How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

Isn't this the Whole Foods district? I remember there being a very Jones-favorable informal poll there.

I got the 2016 numbers for the three precincts that say they are in Mountain Brook:

Trump 66-Clinton 26
Shelby 80-Crumpton 20
Palmer 79-Putman 21

So, it is Safe R, but Trump noticeably underperformed.  Moore probably does even worse than Trump's numbers, but might still win comfortably.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:50:59 PM
Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Donerail on December 12, 2017, 04:51:26 PM
Results coverage will be where it always is, in the thread specifically dedicated to this election.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 12, 2017, 04:51:31 PM
If this turns out to be a UK '17 situation, with pollsters fatally underestimating youth turnout, I'll do an actual f**king dance.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 04:51:42 PM
If Jones wins it'd be awesome, but still a fluke, like Cao or Brown.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mvd10 on December 12, 2017, 04:51:49 PM
How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

I wouldn't be too surprised if they voted for Moore. Ultra-wealthy areas in Southern states are hilariously Republican and Trump won plenty of those places by huge margins even though he collapsed in wealthy California and NYC suburbs (and ultimately most of the wealthiest places are there).

According to the national precinct map (idk if reliable) Trump won the Mountain Brook town hall precinct 67-26 (other precincts that seem to be part of Mountain Brook voted similarly) so it should be relatively safe for Moore.

EDIT: ninja'd by ExtremeConservative :'(


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Jeppe on December 12, 2017, 04:52:15 PM
Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me

EST or Central?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 12, 2017, 04:52:39 PM
How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

Isn't this the Whole Foods district? I remember there being a very Jones-favorable informal poll there.

I got the 2016 numbers for the three precincts that say they are in Mountain Brook:

Trump 66-Clinton 26
Shelby 80-Crumpton 20
Palmer 79-Putman 21

So, it is Safe R, but Trump noticeably underperformed.  Moore probably does even worse than Trump's numbers, but might still win comfortably.

Jones likely doesn't need to win these precincts. He just needs to over perform.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: KingSweden on December 12, 2017, 04:53:57 PM
How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

Isn't this the Whole Foods district? I remember there being a very Jones-favorable informal poll there.

I got the 2016 numbers for the three precincts that say they are in Mountain Brook:

Trump 66-Clinton 26
Shelby 80-Crumpton 20
Palmer 79-Putman 21

So, it is Safe R, but Trump noticeably underperformed.  Moore probably does even worse than Trump's numbers, but might still win comfortably.

That’s fair analysis, and I’m sure such a result suits Jones just fine


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 04:54:39 PM
Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me

EST or Central?

Quote
Polls in Alabama open at 8 a.m. ET (7 a.m. CT) and close at 8 p.m. ET (or 7 p.m. CT). CBSN will have live coverage of Tuesday's special Senate election in Alabama. The first exit polls will start coming in during the 5 p.m. hour ET.

CBSN live coverage will begin at 6 p.m. and continue until a winner is declared. A special edition of CBSN's "Red & Blue" will air at 9 p.m. ET


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: VPH on December 12, 2017, 04:55:25 PM
I'd love to get really hype about early turnout results, but notice that these are mostly coming from territory friendly to Jones. How about rural, Moore-stronghold territory? Would like to know if increases are similar or not. I know there's that one judge in Baldwin saying Jones could get 45% (which I take with less than a grain of salt). Don't get too invested in these anecdotal turnout stories.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 04:55:45 PM
Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me

EST or Central?

Quote
Polls in Alabama open at 8 a.m. ET (7 a.m. CT) and close at 8 p.m. ET (or 7 p.m. CT). CBSN will have live coverage of Tuesday's special Senate election in Alabama. The first exit polls will start coming in during the 5 p.m. hour ET.

CBSN live coverage will begin at 6 p.m. and continue until a winner is declared. A special edition of CBSN's "Red & Blue" will air at 9 p.m. ET


incoming heart attack at 1..2...3...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 04:56:01 PM
If this turns out to be a UK '17 situation, with pollsters fatally underestimating youth turnout, I'll do an actual f**king dance.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:56:15 PM
Jesus, I really need to stop reading the comments on PredictIt.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tx_Longhorn on December 12, 2017, 04:56:48 PM
O Lordy, i'm getting anxious to see those exit polls


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 04:56:59 PM
I'd love to get really hype about early turnout results, but notice that these are mostly coming from territory friendly to Jones. How about rural, Moore-stronghold territory? Would like to know if increases are similar or not. I know there's that one judge in Baldwin saying Jones could get 45% (which I take with less than a grain of salt). Don't get too invested in these anecdotal turnout stories.

Higher than expected, but not as high as the Jones areas seems to be the consensus I've seen.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 04:57:08 PM
Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me

EST or Central?

Quote
Polls in Alabama open at 8 a.m. ET (7 a.m. CT) and close at 8 p.m. ET (or 7 p.m. CT). CBSN will have live coverage of Tuesday's special Senate election in Alabama. The first exit polls will start coming in during the 5 p.m. hour ET.

CBSN live coverage will begin at 6 p.m. and continue until a winner is declared. A special edition of CBSN's "Red & Blue" will air at 9 p.m. ET


incoming heart attack at 1..2...3...

The early exit polls usually don't have topline numbers.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 04:57:26 PM
It's all over :(

https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912 (https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912)





(lol)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pyro on December 12, 2017, 04:57:58 PM
Conventional wisdom tells us Moore should have no issue winning this race.
Though for some reason, it feels like there's more at stake here than say, GA-06.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Usili on December 12, 2017, 04:58:24 PM
It's all over :(

https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912 (https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912)





(lol)

*shakes fist angrily*


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 04:58:31 PM
It's all over :(

https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912 (https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912)





(lol)
Almost had a heart attack there for a minute.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 04:58:50 PM
It's all over :(

https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912 (https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912)





(lol)




HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 04:59:02 PM
It's all over :(

https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912 (https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912)





(lol)

oy vey


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: riceowl on December 12, 2017, 05:00:39 PM
It's all over :(

https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912 (https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912)





(lol)

oy vey

I'm super confused by this Twitter account


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:02:15 PM
It's all over :(

https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912 (https://twitter.com/MillieBonham/status/940688177446182912)





(lol)

oy vey

Wait, the numbers don't even add up lmao.

Best troll ever.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:02:38 PM
FOX NEWS EXIT POLL

https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/940699271858356226 (https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/940699271858356226)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 05:03:11 PM
CNN is reporting that the Moore campaign is seeing high turnout from "white, rural" voters....


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:03:35 PM
CNN is reporting that the Moore campaign is seeing high turnout from "white, rural" voters....

Doubt it


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 05:03:42 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: LimoLiberal on December 12, 2017, 05:03:56 PM
CNN is reporting that the Moore campaign is seeing high turnout from "white, rural" voters....

This is exactly what Gillespie's campaign said before they got pummeled.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: mvd10 on December 12, 2017, 05:04:02 PM
Good Christians who don't like Trump's sexual escapades will turn out for Moore, he shouldn't worry about the approval ratings. Atleast he doesn't have New York values :)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: DrScholl on December 12, 2017, 05:04:15 PM
Someone posted a fake exit poll for VA-Gov and then deleted it when the actual results started coming in.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: cp on December 12, 2017, 05:04:20 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

Link?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 05:04:32 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

Thats probably really bad for Moore?



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 05:04:58 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

That's worse than most polls for Moore.  This could be a disaster.

On a side note, are there any Clinton-Moore voters?  Who would they be??


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:05:06 PM
Can someone post the exits here? I know I shouldn't be paying any heed to them, but...I want to see them.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: windjammer on December 12, 2017, 05:05:12 PM
Early Exits are TERRIBLE for Moore.

Trump Approval: 48-46
Where have you found that?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 05:05:20 PM
CNN is reporting that the Moore campaign is seeing high turnout from "white, rural" voters....

Doubt it
I'm not trolling, although it's important to note that of course his campaign would say that.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 05:05:30 PM
CNN is reporting that the Moore campaign is seeing high turnout from "white, rural" voters....

The moore campaign has said a lot of things today.....


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 05:05:34 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

Link?
I'm watching it live...  Sorry

Another one was which Party would you rather be in control of the Senate

51% GOP, 43% Democrats

Republican Party Approval is 43/51 which of course could just mean anger at Establishments and not Democratic anger


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:05:53 PM
So we are basically looking at either a very narrow win for Moore or a very narrow win for Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:06:13 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

Link?
I'm watching it live...  Sorry

Another one was which Party would you rather be in control of the Senate

51% GOP, 43% Democrats

FORTY THREE PERCENT DEMOCRATS?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:06:31 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

Link?
I'm watching it live...  Sorry

Another one was which Party would you rather be in control of the Senate

51% GOP, 43% Democrats

Ouch. That sucks for congressional republicans.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 05:06:57 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

Link?
I'm watching it live...  Sorry

Another one was which Party would you rather be in control of the Senate

51% GOP, 43% Democrats

Republican Party Approval is 43/51 which of course could just mean anger at Establishments and not Democratic anger

A ton of conservatives stayed home.  If Moore has a chance, it will be very narrowly.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:07:24 PM
This looks like a narrow Jones victory...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 05:07:32 PM
CNN is reporting that the Moore campaign is seeing high turnout from "white, rural" voters....

The moore campaign has said a lot of things today.....
Yeah, I'm not at all saying that's true, as LimoLiberal pointed out, Gillespie's campaign was saying the exact same thing at this point last month.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 05:08:04 PM
This looks like a narrow Jones victory...

TBH, it doesnt look like anything right now.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:08:13 PM
This looks like a narrow Jones victory...

The fat lady isn't even on stage yet. Be cautious.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:08:19 PM
Moore is slipping at PredictIt


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 05:08:47 PM
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 05:09:40 PM
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Helsinkian on December 12, 2017, 05:09:55 PM
CNN exit poll: 49% of Alabama voters believe allegations against Moore are true.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:10:03 PM
The "Time of Decision" may actually be good for Moore?? Or good for Jones because his supporters wouldn't have to think twice?? Unsure.

The "Which party should control Senate" is AMAZING for Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:10:10 PM

Yeah this doesn't really gear us one way or another...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 05:10:14 PM
MSNBC Democratic Favorability 44/52....


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:10:32 PM
CNN exit poll: 49% of Alabama voters believe allegations against Moore are true.

"True" or "Probably True"? Important distinction.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 05:10:42 PM
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: heatcharger on December 12, 2017, 05:10:46 PM
If Trump were at 48/48 in Alabama, this would be game over for Moore. However exit polls have historically sucked in the South (see 1980), and these things always get unskewed after the fact to make them look realistic.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:10:56 PM
MSNBC Democratic Favorability 44/52....

WHAT?!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 05:11:13 PM

Thats not bad if true.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 05:11:31 PM
The "Time of Decision" may actually be good for Moore?? Or good for Jones because his supporters wouldn't have to think twice?? Unsure.
Alabama is hyper polarized. 40 percent making a decision over the past month is rather high. This isn't Ohio or Iowa we are talking about.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 12, 2017, 05:11:51 PM
Exits are beyond terrible for Moore/Republicans.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:12:24 PM
Moore campaign rn...

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 05:12:47 PM

Dont jinx it dude.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: riceowl on December 12, 2017, 05:12:55 PM
CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:13:01 PM


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: kyc0705 on December 12, 2017, 05:13:16 PM
war flashbacks on the nyt's results page

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 05:13:22 PM
CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore

Oh wow...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:13:35 PM
Ugh. These exits feel too good to be true.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 12, 2017, 05:13:39 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

That's worse than most polls for Moore.  This could be a disaster.

On a side note, are there any Clinton-Moore voters?  Who would they be??

I'm sure there are but you'd have to look really hard to find them.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:13:42 PM
Well good thing my GIF failed


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 05:13:56 PM
CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore
Whoa!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 05:14:10 PM
LOL:

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 05:14:41 PM
CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore

I can't imagine many people with a favorable opinion of Moore voting against him (I could imagine the reverse), so I think that says that Moore will get at least 45% of the vote.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:15:08 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 05:15:13 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

That's worse than most polls for Moore.  This could be a disaster.

On a side note, are there any Clinton-Moore voters?  Who would they be??
A 93 year old white woman who wanted to vote for a woman before she died and knew it wouldn't change the statewide outcome? LOL.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 05:15:36 PM
I'm sure it's already been alluded to by several and I posted both figures, but:

AL GOP Favorability: 43%
AL Dem Favorability: 44%


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:15:46 PM
Is it true Jones has a +5 favorability?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: KingSweden on December 12, 2017, 05:15:52 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

That's worse than most polls for Moore.  This could be a disaster.

On a side note, are there any Clinton-Moore voters?  Who would they be??

I can’t even begin to imagine a Clinton-Moore voter.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: riceowl on December 12, 2017, 05:15:57 PM
Per the exits Alabama voters have a higher favorability of the Democratic Party than Roy Moore. What world is this?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 05:16:07 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.
Black Alabamians are pro-life and Jones was going to get 90 percent of them regardless.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: InheritTheWind on December 12, 2017, 05:16:10 PM
Early exits almost always skew left. That said, holy moly these do not look good for Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:16:17 PM

That's...higher than I expected.

CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore

I can't imagine many people with a favorable opinion of Moore voting against him (I could imagine the reverse), so I think that says that Moore will get at least 45% of the vote.

Is 45 the favorable though? Or is there a noncommital portion of the poll?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 05:16:39 PM
CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore


Which means even with unfavorable but still voting for moore voters its gonna be 0-4% tossup.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:16:50 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.

40% pro-choice in ALABAMA??

WITFIGO???


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 05:17:08 PM
CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore

I can't imagine many people with a favorable opinion of Moore voting against him (I could imagine the reverse), so I think that says that Moore will get at least 45% of the vote.
Well obviously. Jones winning by 10%+ was never possible.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 05:17:37 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.
Black Alabamians are pro-life and Jones was going to get 90 percent of them regardless.

54-40 which way- and how was the question phrased?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: riceowl on December 12, 2017, 05:17:43 PM

That's...higher than I expected.

CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore

I can't imagine many people with a favorable opinion of Moore voting against him (I could imagine the reverse), so I think that says that Moore will get at least 45% of the vote.

Is 45 the favorable though? Or is there a noncommital portion of the poll?

42% fave


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:17:48 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.

40% pro-choice in ALABAMA??

WITFIGO???

I meant to say 54% are pro-choice. Poor wording


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 05:17:54 PM
I mean, the Virginia exit polls scewed right so who knows.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 12, 2017, 05:18:05 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

That's worse than most polls for Moore.  This could be a disaster.

On a side note, are there any Clinton-Moore voters?  Who would they be??

I can’t even begin to imagine a Clinton-Moore voter.

Alabamian small businessman who got burned by Trump.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 05:18:16 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.

40% pro-choice in ALABAMA??

WITFIGO???

I meant to say 54% are pro-choice. Poor wording

You should fix that.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:18:37 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.

40% pro-choice in ALABAMA??

WITFIGO???

I meant to say 54% are pro-choice. Poor wording

WHAAAAAT?!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 12, 2017, 05:18:44 PM
Conventional wisdom tells us Moore should have no issue winning this race.
Though for some reason, it feels like there's more at stake here than say, GA-06.

The stakes are unbelievably higher. Ossoff winning would have been a symbolic victory. Jones winning is the death of the tax bill and a much easier 2018 map.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on December 12, 2017, 05:18:50 PM
CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore

I can't imagine many people with a favorable opinion of Moore voting against him (I could imagine the reverse), so I think that says that Moore will get at least 45% of the vote.

Do CNN opinion polls have other/don't know options? That would mean Moore actually would register in the low 40s, not 45 on favorability.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 05:19:11 PM
Alabama 2020 swing state status confirmed.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:19:14 PM
Wow, so the Democrats have a higher favorability than the GOP in ALABAMA


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 05:19:20 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.
Black Alabamians are pro-life and Jones was going to get 90 percent of them regardless.

54-40 which way- and how was the question phrased?
Should abortion remain legal?

Yes- 40
No- 54


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 05:19:45 PM
I'm not sure if this was posted above, but

Opinion of the Democratic Party: 44/52
Trump Approval: 48/48


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 05:19:49 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.

40% pro-choice in ALABAMA??

WITFIGO???

I meant to say 54% are pro-choice. Poor wording

WHAAAAAT?!

Nope: 54% say it should be illegal; 40% say it should be legal


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: DrScholl on December 12, 2017, 05:19:55 PM
Not going to read much into the exit polls, because they don't always indicate what the actual result will be. I will say that the electorate so far is a lot less right-leaning than normal for Alabama. It's looking a lot more like Indiana, Missouri or perhaps even Kansas on a poor day for Republicans.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 05:20:04 PM
Conventional wisdom tells us Moore should have no issue winning this race.
Though for some reason, it feels like there's more at stake here than say, GA-06.

The stakes are unbelievably higher. Ossoff winning would have been a symbolic victory. Jones winning is the death of the tax bill and a much easier 2018 map.

Dont get ahead of yourself there. Republicans can very well rush the tax bill before Strange leaves.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:20:12 PM
CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore

I can't imagine many people with a favorable opinion of Moore voting against him (I could imagine the reverse), so I think that says that Moore will get at least 45% of the vote.

Do CNN opinion polls have other/don't know options? That would Moore actually would register in the low 40s, not 45 on favorability.

42, according to someone above.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:20:24 PM
Sorry it's 54% pro life... my bad. Still a high number of pro-choicers in Alabama


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 05:20:32 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.
Black Alabamians are pro-life and Jones was going to get 90 percent of them regardless.

54-40 which way- and how was the question phrased?
Should abortion remain legal?

Yes- 40
No- 54

That could suggest conservatives staying home too or that conservatives are still at work and will vote after 5?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kantakouzenos on December 12, 2017, 05:20:45 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.

40% pro-choice in ALABAMA??

WITFIGO???

I saw a poll a while ago showing a majority of White Working class People consider themselves to be pro-choice rather than pro-life, so I'm not surprised (although it wasn't Alabamians in general).  



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 12, 2017, 05:20:48 PM
Trump approval being at 48-48 could be very big if this is representative. This I think points to Jones winning.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:20:56 PM
Did they poll Jones's favorability?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Yank2133 on December 12, 2017, 05:21:17 PM
CNN is reporting that the Moore campaign is seeing high turnout from "white, rural" voters....

This is exactly what Gillespie's campaign said before they got pummeled.

Yeah, but it turned out to be true. Ed got destroyed in the suburbs, college towns, and NOVA. But he maintained high support in the rural areas.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:21:31 PM
So if Jones wins is this the end of Bannon?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:21:36 PM
Also 40 pro-choice/54 anti-abortion makes more sense.

But not that much more, it's still much higher than I'd expect from Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 05:22:03 PM
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:22:19 PM
So if Jones wins is this the end of Bannon?

We can only hope.

Also, I left the "not getting hopes up" train a couple of hours ago.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Holmes on December 12, 2017, 05:22:20 PM
Early exits almost always skew left. That said, holy moly these do not look good for Moore.

Do They? Old voters always show up to vote first.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:22:23 PM

BOOM


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 05:22:42 PM
So if Jones wins is this the end of Bannon?
God, I hope so.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 12, 2017, 05:22:58 PM
In regards to the pro-life and pro-choice number, I would take into consideration that more Democrats and moderates are likely turning out, so this is probably not entirely accurate


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on December 12, 2017, 05:23:04 PM
40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.

40% pro-choice in ALABAMA??

WITFIGO???

I saw a poll a while ago showing a majority of White Working class People consider themselves to be pro-choice rather than pro-life, so I'm not surprised (although it wasn't Alabamians in general).  



A lot of people hold conflicted, contradictory views on abortion that aren't accurately captured by either the pro-life or pro-choice label.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Doimper on December 12, 2017, 05:23:14 PM
Exits are beyond terrible for Moore/Republicans.

If Jones wins by a comfortable margin, IceSpear is going to have to take out an accolades mortgage on his home to pay off what he'll owe you.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 05:23:27 PM

I really hope these exit polls are accurate.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 7,052,770 on December 12, 2017, 05:23:31 PM
Also 40 pro-choice/54 anti-abortion makes more sense.

But not that much more, it's still much higher than I'd expect from Alabama.

Pretty consistent with abortion bans shockingly failing last decade at the ballot in South Dakota and Mississippi


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 05:23:37 PM

I can certainly imagine people with unfavorable views of Moore still voting for him, but this points to a likely Jones victory.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 05:23:42 PM
()

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Jeppe on December 12, 2017, 05:23:52 PM
Trump approval being at 48-48 could be very big if this is representative. This I think points to Jones winning.

Didn’t Jones run ahead of Trump’s approval rating by 10 points in almost all the polls? If Fox News got this right, lol...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 12, 2017, 05:24:29 PM
Trump approval being at 48-48 could be very big if this is representative. This I think points to Jones winning.

Didn’t Jones run ahead of Trump’s approval rating by 10 points in almost all the polls? If Fox News got this right, lol...

Pretty much Trump being under net +5 points to a Jones lead I believe.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:24:40 PM
In regards to the pro-life and pro-choice number, I would take into consideration that more Democrats and moderates are likely turning out, so this is probably not entirely accurate

But if that's an accurate slice of the turnout today, it's huge.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 05:24:45 PM

This actually lower Jones approval then in some of the pre-election polls we saw.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:24:51 PM
I hope these exit polls are true because these are brutal for Moore


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 05:25:01 PM
It's true that these exits do look awesome for Jones, but I'm still not getting my hopes up. let's wait and see what happens.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 05:25:10 PM
“The Democrats are back, baby!” - some poor sap’s wishful thinking.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: riceowl on December 12, 2017, 05:25:16 PM

Those "Dislike other candidate" numbers are...strange.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:25:21 PM

Doesn't matter. It's the difference between the two that is so significant.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:26:17 PM
The funniest part is the Trumpers on PredictIt refusing to sell Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tx_Longhorn on December 12, 2017, 05:26:34 PM
Wow, those favorability numbers look promising... looks like this is going to be a nail biter either way..


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Yank2133 on December 12, 2017, 05:26:46 PM
How does Jones have only a 49/49 fav. split? There is literally nothing personally bad about the guy.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:27:09 PM
How does Jones have only a 49/49 fav. split? There is literally nothing personally bad about the guy.

He's a democrat and it's Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 12, 2017, 05:27:47 PM
How much did exit polls overestimate Kerry by...?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 05:27:55 PM
“The Democrats are back, baby!” - some poor sap’s wishful thinking.

"Yo soy Tim Kaine"


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on December 12, 2017, 05:28:28 PM

Chance a lot of Moore’s numbers are people who can’t stand him but don’t want a pro-choice/Dem Senator.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: KingSweden on December 12, 2017, 05:28:45 PM
In regards to the pro-life and pro-choice number, I would take into consideration that more Democrats and moderates are likely turning out, so this is probably not entirely accurate

Worth bearing in mind too many southern blacks are pro-life, it just isn’t their red-line issue like for many evangelical whites


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: UncleSam on December 12, 2017, 05:29:44 PM
It indicates that Jones is getting great turnout from the base, but very little crossover support from Republicans. Meanwhile, Moore is getting some Republicans who just can't stomach a pro-choice candidate.

Question will be how many Republicans stayed home. Based on these numbers, likely quite a few.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Santander on December 12, 2017, 05:32:12 PM
In regards to the pro-life and pro-choice number, I would take into consideration that more Democrats and moderates are likely turning out, so this is probably not entirely accurate

Worth bearing in mind too many southern blacks are pro-life, it just isn’t their red-line issue like for many evangelical whites

That's because white one-issue voters often just say they're voting on life while their decision is shaped by other reasons, such as socially-unacceptable views they don't want to share or partisan hackery.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:32:17 PM
I think the evidence in Republicans staying home lies in the part where they talk about party favorability. the Democrats are viewed more favorable than the Republicans.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 05:32:21 PM
please let Doug Jones win....please let him win


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: DrScholl on December 12, 2017, 05:33:30 PM
CNN Exit poll says that the electorate is 65% White, 30% Black.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:34:29 PM
Oh sh**t at that black turnout


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 05:34:38 PM
CNN Exit poll says that the electorate is 65% White, 30% Black.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/


was 68/28 in 2012, those numbers would had pushed Bob Vance pretty close.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:34:55 PM
CNN Exit poll says that the electorate is 65% White, 30% Black.

...

How does that compare with a normal election?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 05:35:09 PM
65% White
30% Black
2% Latino


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:35:12 PM
Everybody get in a circle and say a silent denominational prayer for Doug.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 05:35:21 PM
CNN Exit poll says that the electorate is 65% White, 30% Black.
That's huge for Jones. if this holds, he likely wins.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:35:28 PM
CNN Exit poll says that the electorate is 65% White, 30% Black.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/


was 68/28 in 2012.

Wait. So higher than Obama levels?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on December 12, 2017, 05:36:05 PM
CNN Exit poll says that the electorate is 65% White, 30% Black.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/


was 68/28 in 2012.

Wait. So higher than Obama levels?

Lower turnout, so anything's possible. Still, take early exits with a HUGE grain of salt


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 05:36:10 PM
CNN Exit poll says that the electorate is 65% White, 30% Black.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/


was 68/28 in 2012, those numbers would had pushed Bob Vance pretty close.

That's so weird...I don't remember AL having exit polls in 2012...?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 12, 2017, 05:36:42 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

That's worse than most polls for Moore.  This could be a disaster.

On a side note, are there any Clinton-Moore voters?  Who would they be??

I can’t even begin to imagine a Clinton-Moore voter.

Born again since November?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:36:47 PM
These polls are WAY too good to be true.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:37:10 PM


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: King Lear on December 12, 2017, 05:38:38 PM
these exit polls seem terrible for Roy Moore however I would caution everyone that this is Alabama and Moore still is favored to win, Its not like exit polls are infallible.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Val on December 12, 2017, 05:39:18 PM
I have two finals tomorrow and I cant freaking focus on studying bc of this damn race


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 05:39:48 PM
F**k. I have to get up early, but...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: john cage bubblegum on December 12, 2017, 05:40:58 PM
Those first-wave exit polls look great, but as always, take them with a large grain of salt.  They could be too favorable for the Dems (as is traditional wisdom) or too favorable for the Repubs (as happened last month in Virginia).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on December 12, 2017, 05:41:16 PM
I have two finals tomorrow and I cant freaking focus on studying bc of this damn race
I feel ya. I have a paper due tomorrow that I have to write, but i'm not going to be able to focus while the results are coming in.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:41:40 PM
Solution to the late-night elections dilemma is always the same: move to West Coast.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:42:04 PM
Lmfao


https://twitter.com/LaurenWalshTV/status/940695208248971264 (https://twitter.com/LaurenWalshTV/status/940695208248971264)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Baki on December 12, 2017, 05:43:02 PM
I will believe in a Jones victory when I see one.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 05:43:43 PM
I have two finals tomorrow and I cant freaking focus on studying bc of this damn race
I feel ya. I have a paper due tomorrow that I have to write, but i'm not going to be able to focus while the results are coming in.

"I'm sorry, I was unable to finish my paper because of Roy Moore possibly blowing away a safe R seat".


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:44:33 PM
I have two finals tomorrow and I cant freaking focus on studying bc of this damn race
I feel ya. I have a paper due tomorrow that I have to write, but i'm not going to be able to focus while the results are coming in.

"I'm sorry, I was unable to finish my paper because of Roy Moore possibly blowing away a safe R seat".

He's going to blow up Alabama?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:46:13 PM
The only thing Moore has going for him in these polls is the senatorial control preference. GOP - 51% Dems - 43%


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on December 12, 2017, 05:46:23 PM
CNN Exit poll says that the electorate is 65% White, 30% Black.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/


was 68/28 in 2012, those numbers would had pushed Bob Vance pretty close.

That's so weird...I don't remember AL having exit polls in 2012...?

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/#exit-polls


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 12, 2017, 05:46:25 PM
37% Democrats
43% Republicans
20% Independents


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 05:46:33 PM
I have two finals tomorrow and I cant freaking focus on studying bc of this damn race
I have one on Thursday and I really do need to start studying. but between this race and the beautiful snowfall outside, I haven't been concentrating


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 12, 2017, 05:46:44 PM
43% of voters 'born again,' 57% not

47-53 no in 2008


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 05:46:48 PM
I have two finals tomorrow and I cant freaking focus on studying bc of this damn race
I feel ya. I have a paper due tomorrow that I have to write, but i'm not going to be able to focus while the results are coming in.

"I'm sorry, I was unable to finish my paper because of Roy Moore possibly blowing away a safe R seat".

He's going to blow up Alabama?
IceSpear just became a huge Moore supporter.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:47:16 PM
Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: DrScholl on December 12, 2017, 05:47:24 PM
CNN Exit poll says that only 43% of the electorate is evangelical. Apparently it was 47% in 2016.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:47:40 PM
The only thing Moore has going for him in these polls is the senatorial control preference. GOP - 51% Dems - 43%

That's hardly in his favor. All the D voters are definitely Jones. And I can see some Rs crossing ballot. So no. And also it's much more D than I'd expect from AL.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 05:47:58 PM
Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

Expected higher


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 05:48:14 PM
Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

No surprise. But good for the other ~18%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Illiniwek on December 12, 2017, 05:48:39 PM
I will believe in a Jones victory when I see one.

Yep. I like these signs, but I still have faith in how terrible the people of Alabama are.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Other Castro on December 12, 2017, 05:48:50 PM
37% Democrats
43% Republicans
20% Independents

:) :) :)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:49:00 PM
CNN Exit poll says that only 43% of the electorate is evangelical. Apparently it was 47% in 2016.

Even Moore bad news...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 12, 2017, 05:49:18 PM
Solution to the late-night elections dilemma is always the same: move to West Coast.



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 12, 2017, 05:49:23 PM
How much did exit polls overestimate Kerry by...?

Those were early/mid-afternoon unauthorized leaks of the exit polls, which weren't being weighted properly.  After that fiasco, the exit polling consortium changed their methodology so that none of the networks had any access to exit poll #s until 5pm Eastern.  Thus, it doesn't make sense to compare the current exits with the 2004 afternoon leaks.  The more appropriate comparison would be comparing to Clinton vs. Trump last year.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 05:49:43 PM
I have two finals tomorrow and I cant freaking focus on studying bc of this damn race
I feel ya. I have a paper due tomorrow that I have to write, but i'm not going to be able to focus while the results are coming in.
crap, I almost forgot that I have to submit a paper tomorrow. I finished it, I just would had forgotten to submit it


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:51:29 PM
Jones is climbing in the PredictIt market, up to 43... was 33 this morning


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:53:05 PM
I wonder how the students of UofA voted...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 12, 2017, 05:54:23 PM
Here’s the CNN video on the exit polls:

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/940707597396729857

Are allegations against Moore true?

definitely true 26%
probably true 23%
probably false 29%
definitely false 16%

Was it an important factor in deciding your vote?
yes 40%
no 55%


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 05:55:28 PM
Here’s the CNN video on the exit polls:

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/940707597396729857

Are allegations against Moore true?

definitely true 26%
probably true 23%
probably false 29%
definitely false 16%

Was it an important factor in deciding your vote?
yes 40%
no 55%


Bad for Moore. Many of those saying "no" might mean that they were never considering voting for him in the first place.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 12, 2017, 05:57:19 PM
Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 05:58:23 PM
Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

That would be shockingly low.  Even 82% would surprise me.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 05:58:29 PM
I wonder how the students of UofA voted...

Probably Jones by about 15 points or so with a larger than average swing from maybe Trump by 20?  Lots of Republicans likely either stayed home or wrote in somebody.  Precinct data says Trump won the Alabama campus precinct by low-double digits, but I could also imagine that the off-campus student vote (i.e. more Greek) and students more interested in their vote at their home address made it slightly more pro-Trump.  Plus, the out-of-state students (likely more Democratic) may be more likely to vote on campus because it's their only way to vote in Alabama.

EDIT: Maybe actually a little stronger for Trump.  All votes within one mile of the UofA campus were 58-35 Trump, and that would include tons of grad students (and those with postgrad degrees are more Democratic) and possibly professors.  Trump may have been well into the 60s with Bama undergrads.  Still, I would expect a massive shift to Moore with these people.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 05:59:23 PM
Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

How many DNK OR BELIEVE TRUE (left true out so modified)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 06:00:05 PM


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Lord Admirale on December 12, 2017, 06:00:57 PM
"It's Massachusetts" Martha Coakley said before losing to a Republican in 2010

"It's Alabama" Roy Moore said.....


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 12, 2017, 06:02:52 PM
51-43 want GOP to control Senate


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 06:03:13 PM
... What?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Jeppe on December 12, 2017, 06:04:04 PM
"It's Massachusetts" Martha Coakley said before losing to a Republican in 2010

"It's Alabama" Roy Moore said.....

Get your own Gillibrand sig!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 06:04:40 PM

Do Not Know/Do Not Believe Allegations Are False, presumably


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 06:05:28 PM
We know, this was posted when the exit polls first started trickling out.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 06:05:52 PM
This


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 06:09:45 PM
McConnell is a goner in 2020:

Quote
Manu Raju
@mkraju

Why Roy Moore made Mitch McConnell a main issue in his race: McConnell's unfavorability ratings in Alabama: 69 percent, per CNN exit polls


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 06:10:10 PM
"It's Massachusetts" Martha Coakley said before losing to a Republican in 2010

"It's Alabama" Roy Moore said.....

It'll be a fluke. Hillarious, if you're a Democrat, embarassing if you're a Republican, but basically Cao/Brown revisited.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 06:10:56 PM
McConnell is a goner in 2020:

Quote
Manu Raju
@mkraju

Why Roy Moore made Mitch McConnell a main issue in his race: McConnell's unfavorability ratings in Alabama: 69 percent, per CNN exit polls

Funny part: McConnell is an Alabama native.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 12, 2017, 06:11:03 PM
McConnell is a goner in 2020:

Quote
Manu Raju
@mkraju

Why Roy Moore made Mitch McConnell a main issue in his race: McConnell's unfavorability ratings in Alabama: 69 percent, per CNN exit polls

Good for Mitch he won't be on the ballot in Alabama...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 12, 2017, 06:11:10 PM
https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/940715224671408128

Quote
Among all Alabama voters on allegations vs Moore:
True: 49%
False: 45%

Among white evangelicals
True: 24%
False: 72%

(Per exit poll)

()

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 12, 2017, 06:11:16 PM
McConnell is a goner in 2020:

Quote
Manu Raju
@mkraju

Why Roy Moore made Mitch McConnell a main issue in his race: McConnell's unfavorability ratings in Alabama: 69 percent, per CNN exit polls

Mitch McGonnell.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 06:14:41 PM
McConnell is a goner in 2020:

Quote
Manu Raju
@mkraju

Why Roy Moore made Mitch McConnell a main issue in his race: McConnell's unfavorability ratings in Alabama: 69 percent, per CNN exit polls

Mitch McGonnell.

But to be real, McConnell is labeled a McGonnell before every election, and yet he's great at pulling throught.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: OkThen on December 12, 2017, 06:15:03 PM
When could we expect the head to head numbers? Not until polls close?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 06:15:39 PM
When could we expect the head to head numbers? Not until polls close?

Right


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr. Arch on December 12, 2017, 06:15:46 PM
When could we expect the head to head numbers? Not until polls close?

That's usually how it goes.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 06:16:23 PM
Lololol lololol

Quote
Manu Raju
Manu Raju
@mkraju

Senate GOP plans to hold meeting tomorrow morning to discuss next steps if ROY MOORE wins #alsen, I'm told. McConnell discussed it at lunch today


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 06:19:25 PM
Very anecdotal: Optimist Park in Huntsville is going to hit 50% turnout. Voted for Trump 2/1
https://mobile.twitter.com/davidknews/status/940720369777946624

Clinton was a really bad fit for Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on December 12, 2017, 06:21:53 PM
CNN exit polls give Trump's approval rating among Alabama voters as 48-48.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr. Arch on December 12, 2017, 06:22:26 PM
CNN exit polls give Trump's approval rating among Alabama voters as 48-48.

With the Survey Monkey scale, that's very bad news bears for Moore. We'll see.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 06:23:14 PM
2017: Senator Doug Jones
2018: Governor Sue Bell Cobb
Governor Stacy Evans
Governor Karl Dean
Governor Gwen Graham
Senator Phil Bredesen
Representative Archie Parnell
Senator Mike Ross (AR-Special)
2019: Governor Edwards is re-elected
Governor Brandon Presley
Governor Alison Grimes
Senator Jim Hood (MS-Special)
Senator Caroline Fayard (LA-Special)
2020: Senator Sally Yates
Senator Jeff Jackson
Senator Andy Beshear

duh.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Lord Admirale on December 12, 2017, 06:23:23 PM
"It's Massachusetts" Martha Coakley said before losing to a Republican in 2010

"It's Alabama" Roy Moore said.....

Get your own Gillibrand sig!
Hey I got this pic first >:(


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 06:25:23 PM
CNN exit polls give Trump's approval rating among Alabama voters as 48-48.

Trumpism only works for Trump. It didn't carry over to Enron Ed and it won't carry over for Molestin' Moore


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Koharu on December 12, 2017, 06:26:15 PM
"It's Massachusetts" Martha Coakley said before losing to a Republican in 2010

"It's Alabama" Roy Moore said.....

Get your own Gillibrand sig!
Hey I got this pic first >:(

Okay, we'll split it down the middle and toy can each have half. :p

Came to join the thread as we get towards the end of the day, but I'm totally clueless about Alabama. When do the polls close?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 06:27:23 PM
"It's Massachusetts" Martha Coakley said before losing to a Republican in 2010

"It's Alabama" Roy Moore said.....

Get your own Gillibrand sig!
Hey I got this pic first >:(

Okay, we'll split it down the middle and toy can each have half. :p

Came to join the thread as we get towards the end of the day, but I'm totally clueless about Alabama. When do the polls close?
They close at 8PM EST.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 06:29:03 PM
PredictIt still not budging...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Koharu on December 12, 2017, 06:29:11 PM
Came to join the thread as we get towards the end of the day, but I'm totally clueless about Alabama. When do the polls close?
They close at 8PM EST.

Thank you!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 12, 2017, 06:29:22 PM
CNN exit polls give Trump's approval rating among Alabama voters as 48-48.

If that's even close to true, Moore is dead-out f**ked.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 06:29:31 PM
And now the Deep South is forever lost for the GOP!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 06:29:44 PM
I want to know how the heavily Republican counties are on turnout.

Especially rural ones.

That's what is so annoying about twitter on election day. Journalists and others NEVER travel to rural precincts to report. It is annoying.

Bingo.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 06:30:05 PM
Boy I might be wrong. There is defiantly a feeling of momentum on Jone's side on social media/early vote reports that Ossoff didn't have by this point


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Lord Admirale on December 12, 2017, 06:30:49 PM
((prays that Jones doesn't get Ossoff'd))

GRANTED, Jones is much more authentic, likable, and competent compared to smug Jon.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 06:32:18 PM
((prays that Jones doesn't get Ossoff'd))

GRANTED, Jones is much more authentic, likable, and competent compared to smug Jon.
Jones is legitimately one of my favorite politicians in the country right now.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 06:32:33 PM
If I recall, the exit polls never really gave us an Ossoff win...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 06:33:20 PM
If I recall, the exit polls never really gave us an Ossoff win...

Were there exit polls in that race?  I don't think I have ever seen house race exit polling?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tx_Longhorn on December 12, 2017, 06:33:47 PM
something feels different about this situation than the one with Ossoff. Of course it's probably all in my head.. lol


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 06:34:29 PM
((prays that Jones doesn't get Ossoff'd))

GRANTED, Jones is much more authentic, likable, and competent compared to smug Jon.

And unless Jon he actually accomplished something in his life by the time he ran.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: rob in cal on December 12, 2017, 06:34:44 PM
  I think its time for our Atlas brain trust to start pouring money in on predict it to move the numbers closer to Jones.  Personally, I'm not making a financial choice.  Maybe I got spoiled by getting money on Macron over Le Pen at Macron only about 70%. In hindsight I should have maxed out my account and gone all in on that one.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 06:35:16 PM
something feels different about this situation than the one with Ossoff. Of course it's probably all in my head.. lol

This is my feeling as well. I felt Ossoff would lose like a week before the election but I've felt most of the time Jones would win


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Ebsy on December 12, 2017, 06:35:56 PM
There were not exit polls in GA-06 and anyone claiming that they were is quite mistaken.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong on December 12, 2017, 06:36:08 PM
2017: Senator Doug Jones
2018: Governor Sue Bell Cobb
Governor Stacy Evans
Governor Karl Dean
Governor Gwen Graham
Senator Phil Bredesen
Representative Archie Parnell
Senator Mike Ross (AR-Special)
2019: Governor Edwards is re-elected
Governor Brandon Presley
Governor Alison Grimes
Senator Jim Hood (MS-Special)
Senator Caroline Fayard (LA-Special)
2020: Senator Sally Yates
Senator Jeff Jackson
Senator Andy Beshear

duh.
Governor Gwen Graham 2018, Senator Bill Nelson reelected 2018, Senator Andrew Gillum 2022, duh


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 06:38:27 PM
something feels different about this situation than the one with Ossoff. Of course it's probably all in my head.. lol

This is my feeling as well. I felt Ossoff would lose like a week before the election but I've felt most of the time Jones would win

I've felt that Moore would win by 8-15%. but today for most of the morning and afternoon i had some jolt of energy that jones would pull it out and now its back down to Moore will win but maybe only 1-5%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 06:38:44 PM
Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batsh**it crazy" on CNN.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Jeppe on December 12, 2017, 06:38:56 PM
Is there a PredictIt alternative for Canadians?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: rob in cal on December 12, 2017, 06:39:12 PM
  Screw it, decided to get off the fence and bought the last shares of Jones at 33 and 34%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Jeppe on December 12, 2017, 06:39:30 PM
Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batshit crazy" on CNN.

Well, I think that’s the first time I’ve ever agreed with her.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 06:39:37 PM
Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batshit crazy" on CNN.
Well, she's not wrong.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 06:39:46 PM
Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

Lynx please?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: bilaps on December 12, 2017, 06:39:49 PM
in my opinion given this trump number, either the exits are terribly wrong or the turnout among republicans is terribly low


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: tschandler on December 12, 2017, 06:40:01 PM
"It's Massachusetts" Martha Coakley said before losing to a Republican in 2010

"It's Alabama" Roy Moore said.....

It'll be a fluke. Hillarious, if you're a Democrat, embarassing if you're a Republican, but basically Cao/Brown revisited.

I voted for Jones.  He'll have to vote right of Manchin to have a prayer in 2020, won't be running against Moore then.  But before the numbers start coming in how do you really feel about Alabama?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 12, 2017, 06:41:43 PM
For anyone interested in what the Bernie wing thinks about today's election, Nina Turner just said on CNN that Democrats shouldn't celebrate in case Jones win.
::)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 06:43:06 PM
For anyone interested in what the Bernie wing thinks about today's election, Nina Turner just said on CNN that Democrats shouldn't celebrate in case Jones win.
::)


I for one can't wait for the Bernie wing to scream that the Dems should had nominated a progressive because somehow it will make working class republicans switch en masse.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hammy on December 12, 2017, 06:43:23 PM
"It's Massachusetts" Martha Coakley said before losing to a Republican in 2010

"It's Alabama" Roy Moore said.....

Don't forget Democrats are far better at not showing up for their candidates than the hive-minded Republicans.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The Free North on December 12, 2017, 06:43:40 PM
Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

Yes yes...no blacks are bigots and everyone in Alabama who isn't black is a bigot.



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 06:44:15 PM
Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batshit crazy" on CNN.

Well, I think that’s the first time I’ve ever agreed with her.

CNN's coverage is so anti-Moore, it's not even funny.  And, FOX isn't covering it, so I don't know what to watch.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 12, 2017, 06:45:54 PM
For anyone interested in what the Bernie wing thinks about today's election, Nina Turner just said on CNN that Democrats shouldn't celebrate in case Jones win.
::)


I for one can't wait for the Bernie wing to scream that the Dems should had nominated a progressive because somehow it will make working class republicans switch en masse.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 12, 2017, 06:45:59 PM
CNN exit polls give Trump's approval rating among Alabama voters as 48-48.

With the Survey Monkey scale, that's very bad news bears for Moore. We'll see.

Damn, Trump's endorsement of Moore will probably cause the state to vote for O'Malley next time around.  "Here comes the O!" ;)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 06:46:26 PM
Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batshit crazy" on CNN.

Hardly the most important development tonight.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on December 12, 2017, 06:46:57 PM
CNN exit polls give Trump's approval rating among Alabama voters as 48-48.

Trumpism only works for Trump. It didn't carry over to Enron Ed and it won't carry over for Molestin' Moore

^^

Like Hitler and Nazism.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 12, 2017, 06:47:52 PM
How much did exit polls overestimate Kerry by...?

Those were early/mid-afternoon unauthorized leaks of the exit polls, which weren't being weighted properly.  After that fiasco, the exit polling consortium changed their methodology so that none of the networks had any access to exit poll #s until 5pm Eastern.  Thus, it doesn't make sense to compare the current exits with the 2004 afternoon leaks.  The more appropriate comparison would be comparing to Clinton vs. Trump last year.

welp

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Mike88 on December 12, 2017, 06:48:46 PM
I don't think Jones is going to win, but he may have a strong result well above 40%. A strong result, for the Democrats, in Alabama could help them in Tennessee, Mississippi and Georgia in the 2018 midterms, in both the Senate and House elections.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 12, 2017, 06:50:28 PM
Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batshit crazy" on CNN.

Well, I think that’s the first time I’ve ever agreed with her.

CNN's coverage is so anti-Moore, it's not even funny.  And, FOX isn't covering it, so I don't know what to watch.

Sorry but sometimes reality is anti-Republican. The media covers reality and reality has an anti-Republican bias.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 06:51:49 PM
Alabama DSA claims turnout is 50% in Birmingham....not sure if true tho


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 12, 2017, 06:53:22 PM
For anyone interested in what the Bernie wing thinks about today's election, Nina Turner just said on CNN that Democrats shouldn't celebrate in case Jones win.
::)

Nina Turner doesn’t speak for the Bernie wing in any meaningful sense.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 06:53:28 PM
Alabama DSA claims turnout is 50% in Birmingham....not sure if true tho

Could be a ploy to keep the last-minute Jones vote from turning out - i.e. we have enough votes for Jones to win, no need for you to vote.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Comrade Funk on December 12, 2017, 06:53:31 PM
Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batshit crazy" on CNN.

Well, I think that’s the first time I’ve ever agreed with her.

CNN's coverage is so anti-Moore, it's not even funny.  And, FOX isn't covering it, so I don't know what to watch.
NAMBLA news network


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 12, 2017, 06:54:08 PM
CNN's coverage is so anti-Moore, it's not even funny.

Molesting children most times gives you bad publicity.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tirnam on December 12, 2017, 06:54:20 PM
The Secretary of State has said on CNN that turnout is higher than expected in Birmingham, Montgomery, Madison County, Mobile.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: King Lear on December 12, 2017, 06:54:28 PM
Unfortunately I believe Moore is going to poll it out but by a much closer margin then expected.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 06:54:34 PM
Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batshit crazy" on CNN.

Well, I think that’s the first time I’ve ever agreed with her.

CNN's coverage is so anti-Moore, it's not even funny.  And, FOX isn't covering it, so I don't know what to watch.

Sorry but sometimes reality is anti-Republican. The media covers reality and reality has an anti-Republican bias.

More like an anti-pedophile bias. I don't tgink any media organization, even FOX wants to come off as endorsing pedophilia. If you have to report on this from a conservative viewpoint, it require spinning Moores candidacy against Washington and the Media. But it's hard to escape pedos.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 06:55:20 PM
One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

That's worse than most polls for Moore.  This could be a disaster.

On a side note, are there any Clinton-Moore voters?  Who would they be??

I can’t even begin to imagine a Clinton-Moore voter.

There was one quoted in poll LinkedIn one of these threads, quoting a woman I believe in her 40s from the Birmingham area who voted for Clinton, but called the accusations against Roy Moore, and I quote, a complete Hatchet job. She said if she supported a candidate who did those kind of things it would only encourage more of such things.

So much for breaking the glass ceiling


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 06:55:59 PM
The Secretary of State has said on CNN that turnout is higher than expected in Birmingham, Montgomery, Madison County, Mobile.


Why do i have a feeling their trying to turnout rural republicans...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: ajc0918 on December 12, 2017, 06:56:16 PM
I've seen a few posters say they voted for Jones today. Did any of our Alabama posters vote for Moore? Just curious, I know some people support him but not sure if any can actually vote for him.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 06:57:32 PM
All signs are pointing to a Doug Jones win. He could very well pull a Charlie Baker.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 12, 2017, 06:58:15 PM
For anyone interested in what the Bernie wing thinks about today's election, Nina Turner just said on CNN that Democrats shouldn't celebrate in case Jones win.
::)

Nina Turner doesn’t speak for the Bernie wing in any meaningful sense.

She is the president of Our Revolution. You can't get more Bernie wing than that.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 06:58:21 PM
All signs are pointing to a Doug Jones win. He could very well pull a Charlie Baker.
*Scott Brown


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 06:58:30 PM
Black belt still showing up in the strech apparently https://mobile.twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940732149459808256


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 06:58:40 PM
538's live blog is up: http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/alabama-senate-election-results/


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 12, 2017, 06:59:14 PM
Black belt still showing up in the strech apparently https://mobile.twitter.com/rockrichard/status/940732149459808256

Dis gon be gud.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Val on December 12, 2017, 06:59:45 PM
Roy Moore's Horse that he rode to go vote now has a twitter account... this day is so f****ing weird


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 06:59:52 PM
All signs are pointing to a Doug Jones win. He could very well pull a Charlie Baker.

Be cautious.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on December 12, 2017, 07:00:00 PM
For anyone interested in what the Bernie wing thinks about today's election, Nina Turner just said on CNN that Democrats shouldn't celebrate in case Jones win.
::)

Nina Turner doesn’t speak for the Bernie wing in any meaningful sense.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on December 12, 2017, 07:01:30 PM
All signs are pointing to a Doug Jones win. He could very well pull a Charlie Baker.

Be cautious.
I wouldn't call the race with more than an hour still left before the polls close.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: bilaps on December 12, 2017, 07:02:00 PM
how any sane person can watch 5mins of cnn is beyond me.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 12, 2017, 07:02:07 PM
For anyone interested in what the Bernie wing thinks about today's election, Nina Turner just said on CNN that Democrats shouldn't celebrate in case Jones win.
::)

Nina Turner doesn’t speak for the Bernie wing in any meaningful sense.

She is the president of Our Revolution. You can't get more Bernie wing than that.

I legitimately had no clue who she was until I came to Atlas. Don't try to pin me to her.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Donerail on December 12, 2017, 07:02:33 PM
Alabama DSA claims turnout is 50% in Birmingham....not sure if true tho
Could be a ploy to keep the last-minute Jones vote from turning out - i.e. we have enough votes for Jones to win, no need for you to vote.
you realize alabama dsa is not anti-Jones, right


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:02:49 PM
Man this hate is something else. Go Moore!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 07:03:53 PM
People tend to not like child diddling


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 07:04:25 PM

He's very hateable.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 07:04:30 PM
Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

That would be shockingly low.  Even 82% would surprise me.

All evangelicals, or just white evangelicals? If the former, this includes a lot of African American evangelicals who aren't blinded by lockstep Republican voting to believe the accusations


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 07:04:39 PM

You know what Roy Moore hates?

Consent laws


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 12, 2017, 07:04:52 PM
Moore is terrible riding form.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: VPH on December 12, 2017, 07:05:44 PM

Dale Peterson outclasses him on horseback any day


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hammy on December 12, 2017, 07:06:40 PM

"We'll elect a pedophile to trigger those lefties, that'll show them" is basically how this reads.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 07:07:06 PM
Chris Stirwalt said a large turnout favored Jones.  I am agnostic.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:07:51 PM
Quote
You know what Roy Moore hates?

Consent laws

Pretty sure it wasn't Moore campaigning to lower them to 14.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 07:08:20 PM
Moore camp is not feeling confident.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/940733889777209344 (https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/940733889777209344)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Mike Thick on December 12, 2017, 07:08:53 PM
Quote
You know what Roy Moore hates?

Consent laws

Pretty sure it wasn't Moore campaigning to lower them to 14.

???


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:09:11 PM
Quote
"We'll elect a pedophile to trigger those lefties, that'll show them" is basically how this reads.

I suppose you take your Lattes with extra froth...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 07:09:48 PM
Quote
"We'll elect a pedophile to trigger those lefties, that'll show them" is basically how this reads.

I suppose you take your Lattes with extra froth...

And you just earned a spot on the old ignore list.....


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hammy on December 12, 2017, 07:09:57 PM
Quote
"We'll elect a pedophile to trigger those lefties, that'll show them" is basically how this reads.

I suppose you take your Lattes with extra froth...

I don't drink lattes but nice try.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 07:10:21 PM
Quote
You know what Roy Moore hates?

Consent laws

Pretty sure it wasn't Moore campaigning to lower them to 14.

No, but he was the lone disenter on the Alabama Supreme Court to rule againstbthem


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on December 12, 2017, 07:10:25 PM
Quote
"We'll elect a pedophile to trigger those lefties, that'll show them" is basically how this reads.

I suppose you take your Lattes with extra froth...

And you're an obnoxious toad. Onto ignore!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on December 12, 2017, 07:10:32 PM
Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batshit crazy" on CNN.

Well, I think that’s the first time I’ve ever agreed with her.

sounds sexist but ok

Lolhow


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Yank2133 on December 12, 2017, 07:10:36 PM

"We'll elect a pedophile to trigger those lefties, that'll show them" is basically how this reads.

Trigging liberals is all conservatives stand for these days.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: here2view on December 12, 2017, 07:10:57 PM
Quote
"We'll elect a pedophile to trigger those lefties, that'll show them" is basically how this reads.

I suppose you take your Lattes with extra froth...

You're a clown


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on December 12, 2017, 07:11:12 PM
Quote
"We'll elect a pedophile to trigger those lefties, that'll show them" is basically how this reads.

I suppose you take your Lattes with extra froth...

And you just earned a spot on the old ignore list.....
That'll just prove his point of trying to trigger us.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 07:11:14 PM
Quote
"We'll elect a pedophile to trigger those lefties, that'll show them" is basically how this reads.

I suppose you take your Lattes with extra froth...

You're a clown

Quote
"We'll elect a pedophile to trigger those lefties, that'll show them" is basically how this reads.

I suppose you take your Lattes with extra froth...

And you just earned a spot on the old ignore list.....
That'll just prove his point of trying to trigger us.
Id prefer not to get banned bashing him and if he was universally ignored no would give a care about what he said also defeating his point.....


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 07:12:32 PM
Chris Stirwalt said a large turnout favored Jones.  I am agnostic.

Moore benefits if turnout is at the extremes: low turnout sees more high-propensity whits turnout, while very high turnout sees most 2016 Rep voters turn out and punish Jones. Between the two turnout benefits Jones - to varrying degrees. The question is, aere we seeing high turnout which benefits Moore, or Medium/High turnout that benefits Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 07:13:26 PM
Moore camp is not feeling confident.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/940733889777209344 (https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/940733889777209344)
Oh. My. God. I don't want to get my hopes up but the signs are everywhere


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 07:13:32 PM
For anyone interested in what the Bernie wing thinks about today's election, Nina Turner just said on CNN that Democrats shouldn't celebrate in case Jones win.
::)

Nina Turner doesn’t speak for the Bernie wing in any meaningful sense.

She is the president of Our Revolution. You can't get more Bernie wing than that.

I legitimately had no clue who she was until I came to Atlas. Don't try to pin me to her.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 12, 2017, 07:13:46 PM
Is it me or has IceSpear been conspicuously absent from this thread today? :P

I'm reading through now, I was at work. Which I'm glad about, because election day threads before the polls close are always the absolute worst, and this one is no exception.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:13:58 PM
Quote
And you're an obnoxious toad.

And a pleased to meet you too! :)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 07:14:15 PM
Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

That would be shockingly low.  Even 82% would surprise me.

All evangelicals, or just white evangelicals? If the former, this includes a lot of African American evangelicals who aren't blinded by lockstep Republican voting to believe the accusations

Ah, good point.  I hadn't considered that.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 07:15:32 PM
Black people


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 07:15:41 PM
Moore camp is not feeling confident.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/940733889777209344 (https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/940733889777209344)
Oh. My. God. I don't want to get my hopes up but the signs are everywhere

This is the best news I've heard all night. I'm still waiting for some evidence of turnout in Republican counties, especially real ones. The report of low turnout in Baldwin County was encouraging, but I really want to hear what turn out is like in the sticks from a reliable source.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 07:16:04 PM
No "Rain in NoVa" panic posts yet?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 07:17:47 PM
*Nightmares*

https://twitter.com/AynRandPaulRyan/status/940728782893195264 (https://twitter.com/AynRandPaulRyan/status/940728782893195264)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 07:18:04 PM
Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

That would be shockingly low.  Even 82% would surprise me.

All evangelicals, or just white evangelicals? If the former, this includes a lot of African American evangelicals who aren't blinded by lockstep Republican voting to believe the accusations

Ah, good point.  I hadn't considered that.

Actually, a graphic a few posts below this one answered the question. 72% of white evangelicals believe the child sexual harassment charges against more are either definitely false or, as most of them say oh, probably false. 82% of Republicans believe the charges are definitely or probably false


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:18:40 PM
Quote
Black people

You know what they need? A good old white southern democrat.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 12, 2017, 07:19:21 PM
What sites will you all be using to watch the results when they start trickling in?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 07:19:39 PM
Quote
Black people

You know what they need? A good old white southern democrat.


Beats a racist, anti gay molester.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: here2view on December 12, 2017, 07:20:01 PM
What sites will you all be using to watch the results when they start trickling in?

New York Times


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 07:20:11 PM
Moore camp is not feeling confident.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/940733889777209344 (https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/940733889777209344)
Oh. My. God. I don't want to get my hopes up but the signs are everywhere

This is the best news I've heard all night. I'm still waiting for some evidence of turnout in Republican counties, especially real ones. The report of low turnout in Baldwin County was encouraging, but I really want to hear what turn out is like in the sticks from a reliable source.

Baldwin County is not low overall.

Really? I don't want to find the post in this nearly 50 pages of thread with new posts interrupting every third attempt at posting, but there was a news report from the primary Baldwin County newspaper posted hearing that reported light turnout. Do you have other sources? I mean that sincerely rather than as a challenge because, much like 2016, all these huge Urban turn out reports from the media in the big city won't matter for squat if all the rural non black belt counties are turning out in considerable numbers as well.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 12, 2017, 07:20:14 PM
I think Moore is favored, but current exit polling data is still showing that Doug may have a fighting chance.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on December 12, 2017, 07:20:28 PM
What sites will you all be using to watch the results when they start trickling in?
I will be using the New Your Times election tracker


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 07:20:52 PM
We've got an hour left and I've heard no reports or any rumors of a rural surge. Fingers crossed


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 07:21:13 PM
Quote
Black people

You know what they need? A good old white southern democrat.


No, they need Doug Jones who will make an awesome senator


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:21:30 PM
Quote
Beats a racist, anti gay molester.

Well I guess we know what this is really a referendum over now. ;)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 07:22:34 PM
Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on December 12, 2017, 07:22:45 PM
I don't know why I am watching this race but here I am...This thing will be won by moore by about 5 points.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 07:23:05 PM
Quote
Black people

You know what they need? A good old white southern democrat.

Like Ralph Yarborough?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MasterJedi on December 12, 2017, 07:23:09 PM
CNN Exit says 45% don’t believe accusations, 60% say it had no impact on their vote. Aka Republicans love peadophiles and Moore won.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 07:23:21 PM
Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

There was one from Fairhope, which is in Baldwin County, suggesting light turnout.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 07:23:29 PM
Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

According to the probate judge of that county the higher turnout is due to younger voters and african americans


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: History505 on December 12, 2017, 07:23:35 PM
37 mins to go until polls close.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 07:23:41 PM
Quote
Beats a racist, anti gay molester.

Well I guess we know what this is really a referendum over now. ;)


What? Over common decency?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 07:24:23 PM
CNN Exit says 45% don’t believe accusations, 60% say it had no impact on their vote. Aka Republicans love peadophiles and Moore won.

That 60% includes democrats you know.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 07:24:37 PM
Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

According to the probate judge of that county the higher turnout is due to younger voters and african americans

Yeah. Baldwin was high, but probate judge thought Jones might get up to 35% of it due to demographics.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 07:24:51 PM
If I recall right the rumor was Jones was going to keep Baldwin close due to youth and black turnout


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 07:24:58 PM
Quote
lee roop
lee roop
@leeroop

40 % turnout at big Trinity Methodist Church in Huntsville with people lined up a few minutes ago. More than 2,000 votes cast so far, polling officials amazed.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 07:25:25 PM
We've got an hour left and I've heard no reports or any rumors of a rural surge. Fingers crossed

Not to be pedantic, but if you heard any reports are rumors of a depressed rural vote either? I don't recall any reports of a rural vote surge on Election night last year, but it sure as hell happened.

I hate to throw ice water on optimism, but until there is some tangible reports of how expected Republican counties are doing, the surgeon voting in urban areas could simply be 2016 all over again.

The reports of the more campaign being concerned over the exit poll results is the one bit of evidence giving me serious hope tonight.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 07:26:15 PM
Quote
lee roop
lee roop
@leeroop

40 % turnout at big Trinity Methodist Church in Huntsville with people lined up a few minutes ago. More than 2,000 votes cast so far, polling officials amazed.

This is a dem precinct, right?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: swf541 on December 12, 2017, 07:26:29 PM
Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

According to the probate judge of that county the higher turnout is due to younger voters and african americans

Yeah. Baldwin was high, but probate judge thought Jones might get up to 35% of it due to demographics.

45 not 35 was what the judge said if i remember right


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Skye on December 12, 2017, 07:27:32 PM
No official results thread?

For the record, I still believe Moore is slightly favored.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on December 12, 2017, 07:27:37 PM
Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

According to the probate judge of that county the higher turnout is due to younger voters and african americans

Yeah. Baldwin was high, but probate judge thought Jones might get up to 35% of it due to demographics.

45 not 35 was what the judge said if i remember right

He said 45%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 07:27:49 PM
Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

According to the probate judge of that county the higher turnout is due to younger voters and african americans

Yeah. Baldwin was high, but probate judge thought Jones might get up to 35% of it due to demographics.

45 not 35 was what the judge said if i remember right

It was either 45 turnout 35 jones or 35 turnout 45 jones. Idr which one.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 07:27:53 PM
Quote
lee roop
lee roop
@leeroop

40 % turnout at big Trinity Methodist Church in Huntsville with people lined up a few minutes ago. More than 2,000 votes cast so far, polling officials amazed.

This is a dem precinct, right?

Yep


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Ebsy on December 12, 2017, 07:28:53 PM
Quote
lee roop
lee roop
@leeroop

40 % turnout at big Trinity Methodist Church in Huntsville with people lined up a few minutes ago. More than 2,000 votes cast so far, polling officials amazed.

This is a dem precinct, right?

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Pericles on December 12, 2017, 07:29:10 PM
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c9-tuc5E1ZzTEqecVp0D-cpxu2ab3ug9_XEt6R9vMcw/htmlview?sle=true#gid=0


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 07:29:36 PM
Quote
lee roop
lee roop
@leeroop

40 % turnout at big Trinity Methodist Church in Huntsville with people lined up a few minutes ago. More than 2,000 votes cast so far, polling officials amazed.

This is a dem precinct, right?

()

The comments said it's a "swing" presinct


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Ye We Can on December 12, 2017, 07:29:51 PM
Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

According to the probate judge of that county the higher turnout is due to younger voters and african americans

Yeah. Baldwin was high, but probate judge thought Jones might get up to 35% of it due to demographics.

45 not 35 was what the judge said if i remember right

It was either 45 turnout 35 jones or 35 turnout 45 jones. Idr which one.

45


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Lord Admirale on December 12, 2017, 07:31:39 PM
29 more minutes, this is a guaranteed interesting night.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 07:31:43 PM
30 minutes to go...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 07:31:54 PM
538's live blog is up: http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/alabama-senate-election-results/

JFC who thought it'd be a good idea to add a live FB feed to that blog?!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:33:02 PM
Quote
Ralph Yarborough?

I guess when you only have one, the one you have is pretty special.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 07:33:37 PM
538's live blog is up: http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/alabama-senate-election-results/

JFC who thought it'd be a good idea to add a live FB feed to that blog?!

They've always had that.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 07:34:27 PM
538's live blog is up: http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/alabama-senate-election-results/

JFC who thought it'd be a good idea to add a live FB feed to that blog?!
My favorite comment from that feed:
"The pornography industry regularly depicts females as teenagers and the most sought after criteria in a porn search is "16 year old girls" (source: A Billion Wicked Thoughts). Internet porn is the most lucrative industry on earth, supported by millions of men in America and beyond. So let's not act like Moore and Alabama are such outliers, please. He's the symptom, not the disease. Patriarchs have been claiming the rights to girls' bodies since Biblical times. There is not a big difference at all between adult men searching "16 year old girls" on porn sites (my actual argument) and adult men "dating" 16 year old girls."


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 07:35:25 PM
Quote
Ralph Yarborough?

I guess when you only have one, the one you have is pretty special.
Max Cleland?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 07:38:28 PM
29 more minutes, this is a guaranteed interesting night.

And who would have expected that a few months ago?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:38:37 PM
Cleland?

Pretty young to be voting for the Civil Rights act. ;)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 07:39:09 PM
Cleland?

Pretty young to be voting for the Civil Rights act. ;)
Not young enough for Roy Moore though


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 07:39:24 PM
weren't we a bit more optimistic a couple of pages....anyway the thread on reddit politics is downright depressing


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Lord Admirale on December 12, 2017, 07:39:55 PM
29 more minutes, this is a guaranteed interesting night.

And who would have expected that a few months ago?
Just me being hopeful for a Democrat Senator from Alabama :P


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 07:40:09 PM
Results Coverage starts at: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=261809.1375;num_replies=1377 at the top of the hour


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 07:40:27 PM
Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

According to the probate judge of that county the higher turnout is due to younger voters and african americans

Yeah. Baldwin was high, but probate judge thought Jones might get up to 35% of it due to demographics.

45 not 35 was what the judge said if i remember right

It was either 45 turnout 35 jones or 35 turnout 45 jones. Idr which one.

45

He predicted 35% turnout with Jones carrying perhaps 45%. If true, more is seriously f*****


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 07:41:58 PM
Any other Moore supporters in here?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 07:42:28 PM
weren't we a bit more optimistic a couple of pages....anyway the thread on reddit politics is downright depressing

I won't believe it til I see it. 45% of the vote in Baldwin County is the biggest troll job ever

True dat


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:42:35 PM
Quote
Not young enough for Roy Moore though

True that. Given the average age of Democrat Senators, he's not really into pensioners..

 
 


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 07:42:46 PM
Cleland?

Pretty young to be voting for the Civil Rights act. ;)
You said “southern democrats”. Not “southern democrats who voted for the civil rights act.”

Quit moving the goal posts.

Dale Bumpers


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 07:43:05 PM
Head to your local NABMLA meeting


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 07:43:15 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/Bob_Grip/status/940740425698172928

High Mobile County turnout could be good for Jones. We need to stop looking at this through a 2016 lense.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:43:29 PM
Extreme, looks like you've got a reunion with you, me and Classic. :)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 07:43:54 PM
There are a few more pedophiles, not many as open as you are.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:46:12 PM
Quote
Quit moving the goal posts.

You understood that perfectly which is why you found the one southern democrat who voted for the civil rights act.

LOL


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 07:47:30 PM
Quote
Quit moving the goal posts.

You understood that perfectly which is why you found the one southern democrat who voted for the civil rights act.

LOL

Lyndon Johnson signed it...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 12, 2017, 07:48:02 PM
Extreme, looks like you've got a reunion with you, me and Classic. :)

The child molestation fan club?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 07:48:55 PM
Now I'm getting GA-06 again from the Bob Grip post


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 07:49:27 PM
How about cooling it with the epithets?  It's just lowering the signal-to-noise ratio in an already crowded thread.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:49:55 PM
Quote
Lyndon Johnson signed it...

Obviously because of his Texan heritage. Clearly people from Texas are less prejudiced than other Americans.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 07:50:15 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/Bob_Grip/status/940740425698172928
if that is true...f@ck!!!f@ck!!!f@@@@@ck!!!!!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 07:50:38 PM
Quote
Quit moving the goal posts.

You understood that perfectly which is why you found the one southern democrat who voted for the civil rights act.

LOL
Is this how you justify supporting a paedophile who said America was 'great' during slavery?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 07:51:15 PM
Quote
Quit moving the goal posts.

You understood that perfectly which is why you found the one southern democrat who voted for the civil rights act.

LOL
I'm merely naming non-racist southern Democrats.

LeRoy Collins.

How about cooling it with the epithets?  It's just lowering the signal-to-noise ratio in an already crowded thread.
When the Republicans cool it with the pedophilia, I'll stop calling them pedophiles.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: IceSpear on December 12, 2017, 07:51:21 PM
How about cooling it with the epithets?  It's just lowering the signal-to-noise ratio in an already crowded thread.

There is no signal in this thread, only noise.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 07:53:14 PM

Please don't.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 07:53:46 PM
Quote
Is this how you justify supporting a paedophile who said America was 'great' during slavery?

As opposed to a Democrat who believes that killing babies in the womb is not only a good thing but a constitutional right? Absolutely.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 07:54:43 PM
Moore's entrance music regardless of whether he wins or loses should be

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlJGrIyt-X8


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: Illiniwek on December 12, 2017, 07:55:03 PM
Quote
Black people

You know what they need? A good old white southern democrat.


Lol. All of the good old white southern democrats, like Roy Moore, became Republicans. Not sure if people who don't understand this are in denial, or they just are incapable of understanding this.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 07:56:57 PM
Final, final prediction: Jones +2


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Illiniwek on December 12, 2017, 07:58:02 PM
Moore +1


PROVE ME WRONG ALABAMA


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The Free North on December 12, 2017, 07:58:18 PM
Final call: Jones wins by under 100 votes in a hotly contested recount that causes Trump to have a massive meltdown on twitter.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Val on December 12, 2017, 07:58:30 PM


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Hammy on December 12, 2017, 07:58:42 PM

They'll probably do so by putting a zero after the 1.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: mds32 on December 12, 2017, 07:58:54 PM
I predict Doug Jones wins it 50.3-49.3-0.6


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: here2view on December 12, 2017, 07:58:58 PM


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on December 12, 2017, 07:59:06 PM
Moore by +4


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: King Lear on December 12, 2017, 07:59:11 PM
My Last minute prediction is
Roy Moore: 53%
Doug Jones: 46%


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 07:59:17 PM
Final call: Jones wins by under 100 votes in a hotly contested recount that causes Trump to have a massive meltdown on twitter.
That would be beautiful to see, but if it's that close it'd be easy for the Alabama GOP to steal the election, so...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: IceSpear on December 12, 2017, 07:59:20 PM

They'll probably do so by putting a zero after the 1.

lol, nice.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 07:59:37 PM
ONE MINUTE!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 07:59:53 PM
Moore +2

alabama is gonna roll tide... f@cking diphsits galore there

(please let me be wrong....please let me be wrong tonight


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on December 12, 2017, 08:00:10 PM
And so it begins...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 08:00:13 PM
It's 8pm....time for a nap


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: scutosaurus on December 12, 2017, 08:00:17 PM


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 08:00:27 PM

IT'S TIME


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 08:00:38 PM
All Hail the Needle!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: InheritTheWind on December 12, 2017, 08:00:50 PM
Polls have closed. And here we go.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 08:01:30 PM
Anyone have any exits with toplines?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: tallguy23 on December 12, 2017, 08:01:40 PM
Gut says Jones wins by 1 point.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: LimoLiberal on December 12, 2017, 08:01:50 PM
Final prediction: Moore 57 Jones 36


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 08:02:31 PM
Who are the 2% of Democrats that voted for Moore?

30% AA turnout!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pyro on December 12, 2017, 08:03:01 PM
Updated CNN exit polls still have African American turnout at 30%


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 08:03:17 PM
Final Prediction: Jeb! wins with 99% of the vote


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Karpatsky on December 12, 2017, 08:03:47 PM
Who are the 2% of Democrats that voted for Moore?

30% AA turnout!

Is that high or low? It seems low.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Mike88 on December 12, 2017, 08:03:50 PM
CNN exit poll

49.5% Moore
48.5% Jones


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 12, 2017, 08:03:52 PM
Polls are closed. Time to break out the brandy.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pyro on December 12, 2017, 08:04:03 PM
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 08:04:27 PM
Jones: 98% of Democrats
Moore: 91% of Republicans

Exit polling data by race in second round still holding at 65/30

Note: Romney won 99% of "moderate Republicans"
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: pppolitics on December 12, 2017, 08:05:08 PM
When do the results start coming in?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:05:35 PM
Moore up after first release of votes. TCTC


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Sestak on December 12, 2017, 08:06:09 PM
Jones leads 157-53 w/ 2 for write in


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 08:06:18 PM
White voters: 70-27 Moore
Black voters: 95-5 Jones


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 08:06:22 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20kbH_LRgZc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20kbH_LRgZc)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 08:06:46 PM
Initial results from Greene and Monroe. 157 Jones - 53 Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 12, 2017, 08:06:52 PM
CNN exit poll

49.5% Moore
48.5% Jones

Yep.  Here's the full exit poll:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2017/results/alabama-senate?q=2017embed


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on December 12, 2017, 08:07:24 PM
There are a few results in on the New York Times website


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 12, 2017, 08:07:27 PM
I'm thinking Moore by 1.5%.

Hoping my record of predicting the wrong candidate to win in competitive races still exists.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pyro on December 12, 2017, 08:07:48 PM
Everyone hold your breath!

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: OneJ on December 12, 2017, 08:08:18 PM
Doug Jones
Dem.
157
74.1%


Roy Moore
Rep.
53
25.0


Total Write-Ins

2
0.9

(from NYT)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 08:08:56 PM
Who are the 2% of Democrats that voted for Moore?

30% AA turnout!

Is that high or low? It seems low.
High, if the overall turnout is 25%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 08:09:01 PM
30% AA turnout.  Hopefully this means AAs are 30% of the voters...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:10:13 PM
Butler in. No change. TCTC.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on December 12, 2017, 08:10:39 PM
The needle now is saying it is dead even.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 08:11:39 PM
Moore +22 Whites w/ Degree.... Romney was +59

Moore +58 Whites w/ no Degree.... Romney was +75


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 08:11:45 PM
Butler county initial result come in. Total now 321 - 103  - 5 Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Horus on December 12, 2017, 08:12:20 PM
Those 18-24 numbers have to be worrisome for Dems. Also, 8% of those who believe the accusations still voted for Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 08:13:49 PM
Initial results from Covington and Coffee in the Wiregrass come in. Now 421 - 327 Dem.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pericles on December 12, 2017, 08:14:09 PM
Doug by 2%. Sticking by it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:14:40 PM
Coffee and Covington start coming in. Still TCTC.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 08:16:21 PM
Those 18-24 numbers have to be worrisome for Dems. Also, 8% of those who believe the accusations still voted for Moore.

Romney (and presumably Trump) won the 18-24 vote in Alabama.  That swing isn't much bigger than the statewide swing, though (actually maybe a point or two smaller).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 08:17:08 PM
Moore is going to be bailed out by politcal tribalism


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: mds32 on December 12, 2017, 08:18:03 PM
We need to watch the State Senate special election too. It was a Democratic Primary in a black-majority district. Aka higher turnout there.

Also Moore is only winning Covington 64-34 while Trump won there 83-14.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 08:18:52 PM
Lamar, Fayette, and Clay county comes in with the early vote for Moore. now 482 - 458 - 7 Jones.

355 - 20 Jones in Bullock early on CNN, not on NYT.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:19:07 PM
Lamar in. Roy gains a bit, but still TCTC. No change.

Fayette and Clay in.

Still TCTC


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 08:19:34 PM
I might be wrong, but I'm not feeling so great about Jones's chances right now.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:20:39 PM
Big vote dump for Jones, but not enough here.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 08:21:38 PM
Watching Talladega County... it looks it usually matches the statewide total.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 08:22:23 PM
JONES WINNING MOBILE BIGLY

JONES WINNING DEGA


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 08:22:29 PM
Big - Mobile, Talladega, and Cherokee all drop early vote. Jones winning Mobile early by a lot. Jones winning Mobile and Talladega. Now 1832 - 1119 - 15 Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 12, 2017, 08:22:46 PM
Jones up in Mobile!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: cvparty on December 12, 2017, 08:23:13 PM
don’t get your hopes up guys


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: VPH on December 12, 2017, 08:23:42 PM
Hillary's best Jackson County precinct was 23%. Jones at 48% in whatever precinct has reported.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on December 12, 2017, 08:23:59 PM
Who are the 2% of Democrats that voted for Moore?

30% AA turnout!

Is that high or low? It seems low.
High, if the overall turnout is 25%.

I think it means that blacks are at 30% of the voting share, while they are in the mid 20's as a share of the state population, which is great news for Dems. A bad sign for Jones is that 27% among whites is pretty mediocre, which means this is going to be a very close race.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:24:16 PM
Still very, very early. Not even 1% in yet.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 08:24:46 PM
Don't get your hopes up. It looks like Alabama is sending a pedophile to the Senate.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 12, 2017, 08:24:57 PM
I realize it is very early yet, but I am surprised at the low number of write-in votes.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on December 12, 2017, 08:25:06 PM
It's early folks. Don't get too comfortable.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: TML on December 12, 2017, 08:26:17 PM
Remember this statement from last year's general election:

Quote
Heads-up: Forecasts may be volatile early in the night. These numbers will become more trustworthy once more votes have been counted.

At this moment, that's very true - in fact, the NY Times' final projection has shifted back-and-forth between Moore and Jones multiple times. We'll have to wait for more votes to come in before we have a better idea of who is on track to win. In fact, right now I probably wouldn't even surprised if there ends up being a recount here.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Doimper on December 12, 2017, 08:26:53 PM
New exit polling?

https://twitter.com/ASBRI_Polls (https://twitter.com/ASBRI_Polls)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 08:27:05 PM
If Jones has a lead of 7% or more with 15-20% of precincts reporting, I think he can pull it off.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 08:27:46 PM
Marengo, Jackson, and Autauga drop early vote. 2152 - 1482 - 15 Jones.

Montgomery early vote drops now along with Chocktaw. Now 3303 Jones - 1869 Moore - 15 Write in.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 08:27:51 PM
Crossposted

Mobile county is one of the ones I want to see to see where the race is going. It was 55% for Trump with 172K votes, while the state was 62% Trump with 1318K votes. If it starts to go for Jones, then Moore is in danger. Madison and Tuscaloosa are two others to watch that Jones needs to flip.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: LimoLiberal on December 12, 2017, 08:28:25 PM
Why are people freaking out? The early results look incredible for Doug Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:28:59 PM
Another big vote dump for Jones. Montgomery. Not enough though.

Sheesh. My model is pretty good, but even it requires 5 percent in to start making predictions.

Wayyy too early.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 12, 2017, 08:29:05 PM
Even though NYT is predicting Jones wins by 0.2%, they say that they believe Moore leads by less than 1 in remaining votes


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 12, 2017, 08:29:08 PM

Hope is all we have left.  


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:30:15 PM
Quote
Why are people freaking out? The early results look incredible for Doug Jones.

They are already digging into Montgomery and his strongest areas. Not a good sign.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 12, 2017, 08:31:01 PM
NYT has a working model with results:

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 08:31:37 PM
Warning this is only early vote. Once results start coming in hard and fast, I will stop with these updates.

Jones gets the Pickens early vote. Moore gets Randolph Cullman, Dale, Winston, Blout and Morgan.

4033 - 2903 - 23 Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: LimoLiberal on December 12, 2017, 08:32:35 PM
Quote
Why are people freaking out? The early results look incredible for Doug Jones.

They are already digging into Montgomery and his strongest areas. Not a good sign.

What the heck does this mean? What/who is digging in?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 08:34:11 PM
30 minutes since polls closed and only 1% counted?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 08:35:15 PM
Tuscaloosa absentee votes have Jones up 73-25 :P


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 08:35:32 PM
Posted at 8:09 EST:

Quote
Long lines at Aldersgate on Vaughn Road. Montgomery election officials said there aren't any issues there, just a lot of voters still. Reminded people that as long as they are in line, they will get to vote

https://twitter.com/bedwards92/status/940750092654534656


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:36:46 PM
What it means is that they are vote-dumping in the reporting for Jones, reporting Jones areas early on. This doesn't help Jones at the end of the day because it slants the votes towards Moore later on.

It's a good way to do it if you want the narrative to be Jones ahead for awhile.

More vote dumping. Not enough to shift away from Moore tho. Tuscaloosa.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 08:36:54 PM
Quote
Turnout in MGM County was 32% as of 5pm. Well above our best case projections. Final turnout will surely be higher due to after work rush. Stay tuned now that polls are closed.

https://twitter.com/stevenlouisreed/status/940755445123346432


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 08:37:13 PM
Initial vote dump in Jefferson County: Jones 89%, Moore 10%, Other 1%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 08:37:51 PM
Jones had slid down to about .25 on PredictIt just before the polls closed, but has recovered to .42.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on December 12, 2017, 08:39:19 PM
Jones is leading by 0.2-0.4 points according to the NYT estimated final vote needle


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 08:39:25 PM
THIS IS ONLY EARLY VOTE.

With that said, Jones gets another big bomb - Tuscaloosa 1252 - 422 Jones. Crucially NYT says 2 precincts reported, not 1/preliminary. Jones also gets Tallapoosa and  early vote - a rep county.

Oh and Birmingham early vote came in - 1122 Jones -131 Moore.

Moore gets Elmore, and Bibb, marshall, Washington, and Franklin.

10712 - 7290 - 128 Jones.

BIG Talladega now at 7/27 Precincts 2707 - 1631 Jones.

Jones flips Monroe as precincts come in.

Funny - Jones wins Etowah county early vote 153 - 15.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Strudelcutie4427 on December 12, 2017, 08:39:51 PM
If I lived in Alabama, my vote wouldve gone to Peter Griffin of Quahog.

Wonder when we're gonna get an election between a necrophile and a bestiality enthusiast the way our choices keep getting worse and worse


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 08:40:43 PM
3 precincts in, Monroe County flipped to Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 08:40:48 PM
Remember guys, here's a spreadsheet with the NYT effective benchmarks (raw vote margins) for each county in a tied scenario, so keep an eye out on this as the night unfolds and as counties report (of course, if turnout is substantially higher or lower than NYT estimated, it'll be much less useful)

NYT Tied Race Benchmarks by County (Raw Vote Margins) (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z9bZbslA_YtxEO9h6lhFygA4Io9qTHN11DXM5-SoZqU/edit?usp=sharing)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Holmes on December 12, 2017, 08:40:53 PM
Uh are those Etowah county numbers real??


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 08:41:17 PM

That's probably true. Talladega matched Trump's statewide totals fairly well. The turnout in the county matters, too. With a quarter in, there are 4.3K votes cast. In 2016 there were 33.4K cast, so that projects this election to have about half the turnout of 2016.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 08:41:30 PM
Jones winning Colbert County.

Jones winning Houston County.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: IceSpear on December 12, 2017, 08:42:42 PM
I just panic sold my Moore shares at a profit after Tuscaloosa and Talladega dropped. This...might actually happen. lol


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 08:42:47 PM
A couple of tidbits from the 538 blog:

Quote
DAVID WASSERMAN 8:39 PM
Some very early, very tentative good news for Jones: He received 31 percent of the vote in one Cullman County precinct. This is important because Hillary Clinton failed to receive more than 15 percent of the vote in any Cullman County precinct in 2016, save for one majority-black precinct that’s heavily Democratic. Coupled together with other rural precincts, Jones is holding his own in at least a few deep-red places.

Quote
HARRY ENTEN 8:40 PM
I went into the evening thinking that Moore was a slight favorite. Based upon the latest returns, I wish I had said Jones was the slight favorite. That’s based off the scattered returns so far and looking at my baselines.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 08:43:15 PM
Uh are those Etowah county numbers real??
He could win it just because it's Moore's home county and the people there know how awful he is.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on December 12, 2017, 08:44:11 PM
Uh are those Etowah county numbers real??

Likely an overwhelmingly black precinct.  Precincts can very heavily in Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 08:44:24 PM
Jones edging into the lead on PredictIt.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 08:44:39 PM
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Doug Jones
Democrat
21,666   54.6%   
Roy Moore
Republican
17,652   44.5   
Total Write-Ins

368   0.9   
3% reporting (65 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pyro on December 12, 2017, 08:44:45 PM
()

Welp


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:46:00 PM
3 percent in. Jones up but way tooo TCTC.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 08:46:15 PM
Moore wins Crenshaw, and dekalb early votes. Jones ahead in Colbert w/3 of 26 precincts. Jones ahead in Hudson 4/28 precincts in the wiregrass. Questioning if this is a mistake in precincts reported and early vote, or actural returns. Jones wins Russel. Jones wins lauderdale, Lee, and Calhoun early vote.

Linestone (remember) 12/26 in 6311 - 4441 - 175 Moore. 57.8/40.6

22466 - 19008 - 417 Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 08:46:54 PM
In Limestone with almost half in Moore is 14% behind Trump+Johnson. If carried statewide that puts Jones and Moore in a virtual tie.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Jeppe on December 12, 2017, 08:47:13 PM
I will happily accept my accolades if Jones wins, but it's still too early to tell right now.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 08:47:35 PM
Uh are those Etowah county numbers real??
He could win it just because it's Moore's home county and the people there know how awful he is.
Yup, just like how Trump lost Manhattan bigly.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 08:47:52 PM
Quote
14% of Houston County (big GOP county) is in and Jones is leading in it by 13 points. That should drop but whoa.

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/940759240964235264

If Jones ends up anywhere close in Houston, Moore is toast.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:48:39 PM
50 - 48.8 Moore with only 4 percent in.

LOL at those calling this now.



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 08:48:43 PM
If I lived in Alabama, my vote wouldve gone to Peter Griffin of Quahog.

Wonder when we're gonna get an election between a necrophile and a bestiality enthusiast the way our choices keep getting worse and worse
Bullsh**t. How is a moderate democrat with a distinguished career as a federal prosecutor in any way 'just as bad' as racist, homophobic paedophile who's been kicked off the state supreme court twice?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 08:49:24 PM
Moore jumped ahead.  However, we still have lots of vote from the cities left to report...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on December 12, 2017, 08:50:26 PM
Moore now ahead in fivethirtyeight.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 12, 2017, 08:51:20 PM
Incredibly Wulfric's endorsement did not sink Jones outright, as we've all expected a month ago.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 08:51:39 PM
Moore ahead due to Limestone at 20/26 while the rest of the state is at early vote.

Huntsville early vote in for Jones.

At 5% in 29206 - 27248 - 724 Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 08:52:02 PM
I just panic sold my Moore shares at a profit after Tuscaloosa and Talladega dropped. This...might actually happen. lol
if you are telling the truth, then maybe there is hope for jones


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: cvparty on December 12, 2017, 08:52:29 PM
i have a bad feeling an onslaught of moore voters is just gonna dump in and destroy jones’s lead—oh never mind he already took the lead before i got the chance to post this rip


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:52:33 PM
Moore takes the lead. 5 percent in.

Still TCTC. 51.2-47.7


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on December 12, 2017, 08:53:13 PM
LOL Moore getting blown out in his home county. Those that know him best, like him least. Bad!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:53:45 PM
Moore pulling away now.

7% in 53 - 45.

Moore Max is 67. Jones max is 59.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 08:54:34 PM
Montgomery Advertiser political reporter:

Quote
Jefferson, Mobile, Madison and Montgomery counties have few boxes in to this point.

https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/940761025015578624


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: HisGrace on December 12, 2017, 08:54:46 PM
If I lived in Alabama, my vote wouldve gone to Peter Griffin of Quahog.

Wonder when we're gonna get an election between a necrophile and a bestiality enthusiast the way our choices keep getting worse and worse
Bullsh**t. How is a moderate democrat with a distinguished career as a federal prosecutor in any way 'just as bad' as racist, homophobic paedophile who's been kicked off the state supreme court twice?

If anything the correct analogy is a Republican who is both a necrophile and beastiality enthusiast, against a normal Democrat who Fox News would tel us was obviously way worse, despite the Republican having some "personal flaws".


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: jman123 on December 12, 2017, 08:55:20 PM
Moore is underperforming Trump


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 08:55:37 PM
Limestone is now 88% in and is on pace to have about 22K votes vs 40K in 2016. At 61% Moore is 11% behind Trump who got 72% in 2016. That projects to a small edge for Moore. Given the turnout uncertainties, it's still too close to call.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 08:55:57 PM
OMFG! I accidentally went to page 55 of the 2017 special election thread that momentarily climbed above this one, and read that the NYT had called the race for Moore at about 55-45.

Then I realized this was regarding the runoff. :P I nearly had a heart attack.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Umengus on December 12, 2017, 08:56:05 PM
lol.

5 minutes ago, it was good to be jones. now, I call the race for Moore...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:56:17 PM
Jones max down to 57.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 08:56:52 PM
Houston in the wiregrass  now at 18/28 pushes moore to 53/45.

Critical for jones, 6 precincts now in Huntsville, now only 50.8. Wonder where they are in the county.

Interestingly, St Clair flips w/6/31 precincts. Republican suburb county.  


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Umengus on December 12, 2017, 08:57:44 PM
 Jeff B/DDHQ‏Compte certifié @EsotericCD
1 minil y a 1 minute

We are leaning *hard* towards a Moore victory at this point. Prepare your hottakes, journos.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on December 12, 2017, 08:57:55 PM
Moore in the lead!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 08:58:14 PM
DDHQ guy:

Quote
We are leaning *hard* towards a Moore victory at this point. Prepare your hottakes, journos.

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/940762137286316033


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 08:58:41 PM
My model is already calling it for Moore. Over 75% confidence level.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Strudelcutie4427 on December 12, 2017, 08:59:20 PM
I just panic sold my Moore shares at a profit after Tuscaloosa and Talladega dropped. This...might actually happen. lol

Always better to go with your gut. I wish I sold my actual stocks and bought them back after Brexit and Trump. But you made money atleast


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 12, 2017, 09:00:07 PM
Back within 1.5% for Moore


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:00:13 PM
Here come the vote dumps to keep it close. Backing off calling it for now. TCTC.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 09:00:29 PM
25 precincts in Birmingham dumped.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 09:01:12 PM
Yep, Alabama and the GOP have elected an accused child molester to be a senator.

The GOP is going to be crushed in 2018.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 09:02:00 PM
DDHQ guy:

Quote
We are leaning *hard* towards a Moore victory at this point. Prepare your hottakes, journos.

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/940762137286316033
Oh well. At least Jones ran an honorable campaign :(


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Comrade Funk on December 12, 2017, 09:02:38 PM
#BoycottAlabama


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on December 12, 2017, 09:03:18 PM
25/26 precincts in at Limestone, now Moore is slightly underperforming his benchmark.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on December 12, 2017, 09:03:37 PM
JONES NOW LEADING BY 0.2 IN NYT TICKER


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:04:05 PM
Jones max at 54. Everyone about +4 Jones has lost.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 12, 2017, 09:05:15 PM
Hot takes are coming early tonight

It's still anyone's game


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: cvparty on December 12, 2017, 09:06:34 PM
hm every county has to swing an average of almost 30 points, thinking about it that way .-.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 09:06:44 PM
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
112,867   51.8%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
101,972   46.8   
Total Write-Ins

2,861   1.3   
21% reporting (461 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on December 12, 2017, 09:07:37 PM
Limestone county.  Moore 58.6% with almost all the votes in. Trump won 72.14% back in 2016.  Seems to imply that Jones still have a solid shot at winning.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:08:18 PM
Model once again predicting Moore victory at 75% confidence level. Moore has a statistical lead here.

Estimated peak Jones is at 51.56% Moore with a 0.4% advantage.

Callable at 39% in.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 09:09:04 PM
Quote
HARRY ENTEN 9:07 PM
Folks, anyone who says they know how this is going to end is a liar. That, or you should ask them what the lottery numbers will be tomorrow.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 09:09:34 PM
23% reporting 52.8% - 45.9% Moore. Notes:

Birmingham droped 25 Precincts very heavy Jones. Similar votes then 25 precincts in Limestone, though not all precincts are created equal. Lauderdale at 11/32 still holding Jones. Probably all city, little suburbs.

Russell 13/18 jones at 67/32.

10/24 in Lee , jones ahead 57/41.

20/30 monroe 52 - 47 Jones.

St Clair flipped back 12/31 67/31 Moore.

19/27 Talladega, Jones lead 54/46.

9/40 Morgan 50/47 Jones.

10/73 Madison 55/41

Pike drops 25/34 50/48 Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on December 12, 2017, 09:09:58 PM
Quote
Randolph is now completely in. Moore won by 30. His benchmark was to win by 25 points.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:10:07 PM
Callable now down to 31%. Moore with a statistical lead.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on December 12, 2017, 09:10:44 PM
Houston County.  Done counting Moore at 61.2%  Back in 2016 Trump was at 72.07.  Still implies neck-to-neck.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on December 12, 2017, 09:10:56 PM
It's so weird seeing the Democrat winning so many counties and behind in the total vote.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on December 12, 2017, 09:11:43 PM
Quote
Randolph is now completely in. Moore won by 30. His benchmark was to win by 25 points.
Houston different story, won with 61.2, needs more like 63.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The Ex-Factor on December 12, 2017, 09:12:31 PM
Limestone county.  Moore 58.6% with almost all the votes in. Trump won 72.14% back in 2016.  Seems to imply that Jones still have a solid shot at winning.

FWIW, Limestone in 2012 was Moore 61.49%, Vance 38.51%


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 09:12:39 PM
Cullman is 60% in and was 87% Trump. Moore has 78% which would project to a 53% statewide win depending on turnout in the urban counties.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on December 12, 2017, 09:12:58 PM
NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on December 12, 2017, 09:13:15 PM
NY Times now has Jones with a 66% chance of winning.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Tirnam on December 12, 2017, 09:14:25 PM
Jones with a 66% chance of winning on NYT


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 09:14:25 PM
NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

Big shift.  They now have Jones margin at +2.6 and his winning chances at 66%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 09:14:39 PM
NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

Now Jones is estimated to win by 2.1% margin and has a 63% chance of winning !
Wow !


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:15:39 PM
Moore's lead right at the callable line. About 90% confidence level now.

Jones max still at 50.5 percent here.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 09:16:11 PM
Uh, guys, check the NYT needles...

66% for Jones win...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: musicblind on December 12, 2017, 09:16:13 PM
NYT's has Jones at 2.9% in their estimated outcome, but that needle is flying back and forth like crazy.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 09:16:52 PM
If you are not watching the NYT up-to-the-minute information, you need to do so!.
Click this link ......

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on December 12, 2017, 09:17:23 PM
Moore's lead right at the callable line. About 90% confidence level now.

Jones max still at 50.5 percent here.
Where it this bullsh**t model coming from, or are you just pulling this from your ass?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 7,052,770 on December 12, 2017, 09:17:48 PM
Moore's lead right at the callable line. About 90% confidence level now.

Jones max still at 50.5 percent here.

Nobody cares about your homecooked model.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on December 12, 2017, 09:17:52 PM
NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

NYT ticker is junk.

It still has not been disabled for 2016 president, and it shows Clinton winning NPV by 1.2% or 1.3%.  Still flicks back and forth randomly up to today.  And neither of those was the actual result of 2.1%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 09:18:04 PM
Now Jones+4.7 and 76% on NYT.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on December 12, 2017, 09:18:10 PM
Guys look at the time series for the predicted margin/win percentage on the NYT page. Wild swings all night. Don't get hopes too high because at one point in time it has Jones at > 2


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 09:18:15 PM
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
175,947   52.0%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
157,841   46.7   
Total Write-Ins

4,538   1.3   
32% reporting (710 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 09:18:35 PM
Jones chance of winning now at 75% !!!!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 09:18:39 PM
NYT says Jones has a 76% chance winning?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on December 12, 2017, 09:18:57 PM
Quote
Wow. Russell County just completed and Jones beat our estimate by 14 points. It's a 40% black county.
I almost wonder whether that will prove to be an error.
If it's not, as our model assumes, then Jones looks good.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 09:19:08 PM
Walker county is half in and Moore is behind Trumps numbers by a little over 12%. That does put the edge slightly to Jones. Shelby will be key to see if the suburban vote has dropped off more for Moore than the more rural counties. 


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 09:19:43 PM
What the f**k is going on?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on December 12, 2017, 09:19:52 PM
NYT says Jones has 76% chance of winning and by 4.5%!!!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pyro on December 12, 2017, 09:19:57 PM
Positive signs in Jefferson County in raw votes for Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Illiniwek on December 12, 2017, 09:20:00 PM
Moore's lead right at the callable line. About 90% confidence level now.

Jones max still at 50.5 percent here.
Where it this bullsh**t model coming from, or are you just pulling this from your ass?

Clearly.



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:20:05 PM
NYT model is way off here.

If Moore's lead holds at 4% at 50 percent in, this race is called. Holding off for now. Moore still has a statistical advantage.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 12, 2017, 09:20:26 PM
NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

Now Jones is estimated to win by 2.1% margin and has a 63% chance of winning !
Wow !

I honestly did not expect any candidate to be that far ahead in the projected results.

This is turning out to be an even better night for Jones (and most of us) than we thought!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 09:20:26 PM
Birmingham drops 18 more precincts. Must have been marginal precincts that went heavy jones, cause it shoved the NYT tracker.

Crucially: No vote from Shelby, only early from Mobile and Tuscaloosa. Half vote for Elmore/ Blount/ Walker - all suburb counties.

Tuscaloosa dropped some results 17/55 55 - 43 Jones.

Jones at 75% chance of victory. I don't buy it, but thats nice.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 7,052,770 on December 12, 2017, 09:20:30 PM
Should we be concerned that there are no votes in from Shelby County yet?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: _ on December 12, 2017, 09:20:34 PM
ALABUNGA IS NOW ALABAMA
JONES IS GONNA WIN


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on December 12, 2017, 09:21:06 PM
We think about 898,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Jones leads in that vote by about 7.4 points.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 09:21:10 PM
NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

Now Jones is estimated to win by 2.1% margin and has a 63% chance of winning !
Wow !

Here is a sentence to destroy any irrational enthusiasm.

"No results from Shelby County yet." :(

That said, the same is true or largely true for a bunch of rural black belt counties. :D


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Horus on December 12, 2017, 09:21:48 PM
Should we be concerned that there are no votes in from Shelby County yet?

Shelby county seems like the type of place with a lot of Trump-Jones voters.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 09:22:01 PM
Quote
Wow. Russell County just completed and Jones beat our estimate by 14 points. It's a 40% black county.
I almost wonder whether that will prove to be an error.
If it's not, as our model assumes, then Jones looks good.

53.8% voted compared to 2016. That's the number to watch when looking at strong counties for Jones or Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:22:23 PM
Quote
Where it this bullsh**t model coming from, or are you just pulling this from your ass?

Stats. Moore's been building on a statistical advantage, hovering between 75-90 percent confidence for awhile now.

After a certain percentage of votes in, the votes outstanding are much less likely to swing.

4% after 50 percent in is callable.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: emailking on December 12, 2017, 09:22:59 PM
Guys look at the time series for the predicted margin/win percentage on the NYT page. Wild swings all night. Don't get hopes too high because at one point in time it has Jones at > 2

Sure but it can swing wildly while still being accurate at any given point.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Admiral Kizaru on December 12, 2017, 09:23:35 PM
Nate Cohn‏Verified account
@Nate_Cohn
 3m3 minutes ago
More
Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem.
The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far short of our turnout estimates--including two under 75% of our estimates.
That's what the big swing in our estimate is about.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 09:24:51 PM
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
228,585   52.2%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
203,064   46.4   
Total Write-Ins

5,911   1.4   
43% reporting (944 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 09:25:11 PM
Quote
Wow. Russell County just completed and Jones beat our estimate by 14 points. It's a 40% black county.
I almost wonder whether that will prove to be an error.
If it's not, as our model assumes, then Jones looks good.

53.8% voted compared to 2016. That's the number to watch when looking at strong counties for Jones or Moore.

For example Fayette has 57.3% of its 2016 vote and is a 75% Moore county only down 6% from 2016.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:25:50 PM
Calling it for Moore.

Moore has won this.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on December 12, 2017, 09:25:59 PM
Quote
Where it this bullsh**t model coming from, or are you just pulling this from your ass?

Stats. Moore's been building on a statistical advantage, hovering between 75-90 percent confidence for awhile now.

After a certain percentage of votes in, the votes outstanding are much less likely to swing.

4% after 50 percent in is callable.
Sure, whatever you say honey.  Making these bullsh**t numbers seem legit enough though.   


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: SunSt0rm on December 12, 2017, 09:26:24 PM
Turnout problem for the Republicans

HARRY ENTEN 9:23 PM
Following up on that Nate Cohn tweet we posted below: I want to point out that Fayette County is all in. Moore won it by 50 points — well ahead of his benchmark there. Here’s the twist, though: There were less than 5,000 votes cast there. In 2014, there were nearly 7,000 votes cast there. In other words, turnout is way down from 2014 in a heavy pro-Moore area.



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 09:26:42 PM
Guys look at the time series for the predicted margin/win percentage on the NYT page. Wild swings all night. Don't get hopes too high because at one point in time it has Jones at > 2

OK, I will calm down a bit, but very early numbers in their model and calculations can easily be misinterpreted. But as the total percentage that in and reported keeps climbing their model estimates for the balance of votes should be more and more accurate.

Right now it is 46% total reported. And the NYT estimates Jones' chance of winning is 72% with an approx. margin of 4.1

That's pretty damn high.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: JA on December 12, 2017, 09:27:41 PM
Shelby County, AL

06/48 - Precincts Reported

61.6% - Roy Moore
36.0% - Doug Jones
02.4% - Write-In


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Koharu on December 12, 2017, 09:27:47 PM
Nate Cohn‏Verified account
@Nate_Cohn
 3m3 minutes ago
More
Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem.
The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far short of our turnout estimates--including two under 75% of our estimates.
That's what the big swing in our estimate is about.

Thanks for sharing this. The NYT model had me really scratching my head.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MillennialModerate on December 12, 2017, 09:28:06 PM
ALABUNGA IS NOW ALABAMA
JONES IS GONNA WIN

The kiss of death ...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 09:29:04 PM
NYT now at 90% Jones.   PredictIt at .55 for Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Illiniwek on December 12, 2017, 09:29:22 PM

Great news. Thanks. See you at the end of the night.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 09:29:29 PM
Shelby at 6/48  62.5 - 36 Moore

Macon nearly finished 88.6/11.1 Jones

Madison 30/73 57.6 - 39.3 Jones.

Perry 13/13 79/20.7 Jones

Dale close 18/20 64.8 - 34.1 Moore

Randolph  finished 65.3 - 34,2 Moore

Clerburne nearly finished 14/15 80 - 19 Moore.

Monroe nearly done 26/30 51 - 48 Jones

Conecuh 26/28 56.1 - 43.4 Jones

Colbert finished 53.1 - 46.9 Moore

Cullman nearly done 42/50 79 - 19.4 Moore

63 /172 Jefferson. Jones still above 80% 86% Jones on NYT, I'm beginning to expect Jones now...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 09:29:45 PM
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
254,321   51.0%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
238,023   47.7   
Total Write-Ins

6,599   1.3   
48% reporting (1,072 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 7,052,770 on December 12, 2017, 09:29:58 PM
My made up model says Jones 110% to win!!!!1


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 09:30:12 PM
Russell County, a black belt county Hillary narrowly won with a plurality, now 100% in.

IF one extrapolates a similar statewide shift (Jones cleaned up), and IF one assumes Johnson/Stein/ whoever voters stayed home or did write-ins......

Jones wins by about half a percent.

Be still my heart.


Oh! And barely jack in from Montgomery! :D


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: cvparty on December 12, 2017, 09:31:23 PM
omg is he actually gonna win


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 12, 2017, 09:32:42 PM
This is the first time that I've ever felt happy about a Democrat winning


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: UncleSam on December 12, 2017, 09:33:11 PM
NYTimes had it at 90% Jones at +8.3 for a second

Now back to +4.6

Moore in the lead by about 4% with 50% in

I think it's fair to say that if Jones fails to come back Nate Cohn will have lost most of his credibility tonight

On the other hand, if he does then that's a bit boon to the NYTimes modeling (well, if he wins by about 4 points, as they've been saying most of the night).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:33:37 PM
Jones max now at 50 percent for the first time.

This is a hilarious thread. :)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on December 12, 2017, 09:34:12 PM
I still think Moore will win this


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: emailking on December 12, 2017, 09:35:24 PM
NYTimes had it at 90% Jones at +8.3 for a second

Now back to +4.6

Moore in the lead by about 4% with 50% in

I think it's fair to say that if Jones fails to come back Nate Cohn will have lost most of his credibility tonight

No? 90% != 100%


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 09:35:47 PM
Jones max now at 50 percent for the first time.

This is a hilarious thread. :)

Well, you're adding quite a bit to the comedy relief. :)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on December 12, 2017, 09:36:31 PM
Real question is what is left inside Jefferson County.  If it is like what it is so far then Jones wins.  If its a reversion to the mean then Moore has a shot.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:36:56 PM
Comedy relief, perhaps, but so far I've been right. ;)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Admiral Kizaru on December 12, 2017, 09:37:26 PM
lol the dial is slowing being reeled in .... down to 68% now. 

You just now it's going to tick down until the race is called for Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 09:37:29 PM
The last three precincts in Limestone were bigger than average so the vote was 59.5% of 2016. But those precincts were also more Jones than average for the county so it puts Moore 13.5% behind Trump there, and that could be enough to lose.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Silent Hunter on December 12, 2017, 09:38:13 PM
Just how many votes Jones gets in Montgomery County will be key.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 09:38:28 PM
Quote
rural alabama substantially in now (not entirely but substantially) leaving the half of total votes yet to be counted largely in urban counties.

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/940771654459904000


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: UncleSam on December 12, 2017, 09:38:56 PM
A word of caution: the NYTimes indicates that well over 60% of precincts are in, yet believe that about 45-46% of the vote is still out. Obviously they think turnout at these precincts will be higher than those that reported, but that's a big assumption when the guy in the lead by 8 points with 60+% in you're projecting to lose by 4.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 09:39:01 PM
Uh, guys, Moore is leading by 7% with almost 60% in.  No time to cheer yet...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 09:39:27 PM
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
350,192   52.8%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
303,232   45.7   
Total Write-Ins

9,679   1.5   
62% reporting (1,372 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 09:40:08 PM
Crucially, virtually nothing from Montgomery.

Glancing through most Moore counties, they are at least 60% precincts reporting. Tuscaloosa/Mobile/Birmingham still lots left.

Swing Talladega just finished 50.7 - 49.3 Jones.

Lee and Chambers also swing counties at 19/24  and 14/21 with Jones leads.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on December 12, 2017, 09:40:13 PM
A word of caution: the NYTimes indicates that well over 60% of precincts are in, yet believe that about 45-46% of the vote is still out. Obviously they think turnout at these precincts will be higher than those that reported, but that's a big assumption when the guy in the lead by 8 points with 60+% in you're projecting to lose by 4.
Considering it's mostly urban areas that are out, that isn't to big of an assumption.

Also Jones won TALLADEGA by a point, so take that as you will.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: VPH on December 12, 2017, 09:41:04 PM
Comedy relief, perhaps, but so far I've been right. ;)
Where are you getting these numbers


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:41:45 PM
Quote
it's going to tick down until the race is called for Moore.

LOL. Well I had the first call. LOL.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Matt on December 12, 2017, 09:42:28 PM
Jones advantage keeps decreasing on NYT, com'on fake news!

(how the heck are you supposed to post when every time you hit "post" you get the Warning - new posts kickback?)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 09:42:36 PM
Talledega is all in. It was 61.7% for Trump as he won with 62.1% statewide. Jones has won it 50.7 to 49.3. The vote total is 58.9% of the 2016 in Talledega. Those are very good numbers for Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Jeppe on December 12, 2017, 09:42:44 PM
There's about 200 precinct left to report in Moore counties, compared to the 800 or so left overall.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on December 12, 2017, 09:43:47 PM
Quote
Wow. Russell County just completed and Jones beat our estimate by 14 points. It's a 40% black county.
I almost wonder whether that will prove to be an error.
If it's not, as our model assumes, then Jones looks good.

53.8% voted compared to 2016. That's the number to watch when looking at strong counties for Jones or Moore.

The 2012 Moore-Vance race may be more useful.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=1&year=2012&f=0&off=50&elect=0


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 09:43:52 PM
Real question is what is left inside Jefferson County.  If it is like what it is so far then Jones wins.  If its a reversion to the mean then Moore has a shot.

What's more important is what's coming out of Mobile. A little over 5% in and Jones is killing there SO FAR. Also less than 5% out of Montgomery. Jones will romp in the latter, but the real question is how does his % hold up in Mobile. Also, his numbers in Baldwin are just under 30%. There's a lot left there.

In short, watch the two gulf counties.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 09:45:18 PM
Jones won Talladega! It's a bellwether so it will be close. Lean Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Rookie Yinzer on December 12, 2017, 09:47:56 PM
OMG Jones won Lee County! :D


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on December 12, 2017, 09:48:12 PM
Jones jumped a bit again in NYT.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on December 12, 2017, 09:48:49 PM
And Jones likely has won Lee, home of Aburn.  Voted Trump by almost 20.  Again take it as you will.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:48:54 PM
Quote
Where are you getting these numbers

My model assumes that the swing vote is no greater than 2/x where x is the percentage total number of votes counted*100. I've tested it for countless elections, and it's only once been wrong - the PA election last year calling against Trump.

So in this example, 65 percent of the vote is in.

So 2/65 = 3.07. That added to Jones gives us 45.3 + 3.07 = 48

This is under 50 percent so Jones cannot catch Roy Moore.

Within 2% I won't call until 90 percent is in. The model is less good with really close elections.

I also give it an extra percent before I call the election - a 'fudge factor' if you will so that takes care of the 1% off calls, as in PA for Clinton. I also try to call the 'downswings'. Has to have two sections above the callable point.

At 1/x the candidate has a 'statistical lead' meaning that the other candidate is officially behind.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 09:49:49 PM
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
401,467   51.8%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
363,307   46.8   
Total Write-Ins

10,968   1.4   
70% reporting (1,556 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MillennialModerate on December 12, 2017, 09:50:13 PM
I’m obviously hoping to be wrong but how in the hell does the NYT think Jones has a shot. He’s down by a lot with 60% in.... sad night


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 7,052,770 on December 12, 2017, 09:50:29 PM
NYT coming back to Jones!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 09:50:38 PM
Huge jump for Jones in actual reported numbers.
Moore was leading by an 8-ish margin, now he only leads by 4.7


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on December 12, 2017, 09:51:19 PM
Moore is still gonna win this.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: scutosaurus on December 12, 2017, 09:51:29 PM
I’m obviously hoping to be wrong but how in the hell does the NYT think Jones has a shot. He’s down by a lot with 60% in.... sad night

Take a look at the estimated votes remaining.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 7,052,770 on December 12, 2017, 09:52:22 PM
Quote
Where are you getting these numbers

My model assumes that the swing vote is no greater than 2/x where x is the total number of votes counted. I've tested it for countless elections, and it's only once been wrong - the PA election this year calling against Trump.

So in this example, 65 percent of the vote is in.

So 2/65 = 3.07. That added to Jones gives us 45.3 + 3.07 = 48

This is under 50 percent so Jones cannot catch Roy Moore.

Within 2% I won't call until 90 percent is in. The model is less good with really close elections.

I also give it an extra percent before I call the election - a 'fudge factor' if you will so that takes care of the 1% off calls, as in PA for Clinton. I also try to call the 'downswings'. Has to have two sections above the callable point.

At 1/x the candidate has a 'statistical lead' meaning that the other candidate is officially behind.

Wow, it really is just something you made up rather than a statistical analysis of precinct results. I (thought I) was just jerking your chain.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 09:53:06 PM
This last 30% has to be very pro-jones. I just don't see it


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: CatoMinor on December 12, 2017, 09:53:10 PM
A tiny sliver of hope, but I doubt Jones can overcome that sea of birthers and Trumpists in Rural-White Bama


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 09:53:11 PM
Quote
Quote
HARRY ENTEN 9:52 PM
I’ll note, for what it’s worth, that the exit poll adjustment based on actual votes has Jones winning by between 2 and 3 percentage points.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pyro on December 12, 2017, 09:53:41 PM
Montgomery just bumped the total, 50.5% Moore to 48.1% Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The Govanah Jake on December 12, 2017, 09:53:51 PM
Moore only up by 2%. There is still a chance


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 09:54:06 PM
55/190 now in Mobile Jones holding above 60%.

23/24 in Swing Lee/Auburn 55.7 - 42.3 Jones.

83/172 Jefferson Jones still above 80%.

51/73 Madison 55.6 - 41.3 Jones

38/99 Montgomery 72% Jones

What has to hurt Moore: Suburban Elmore, Autauga, St. Clair, Blount, Cullman, Walker, Jackson, Limestone, Lauderdale, and Colbert are nearly all in - only a handful of precincts remaining in all of them. Only Baldwin and Shelby Suburban counties left.

Jones still high on NYT


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 09:54:29 PM
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
439,021   50.7%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
414,580   47.9   
Total Write-Ins

12,049   1.4   
76% reporting (1,682 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on December 12, 2017, 09:55:04 PM
538 has Moore down to a plurality.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 09:55:13 PM
Actual reported numbers now only show Moore leading by 2.8


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr. MB on December 12, 2017, 09:56:01 PM
I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 09:56:14 PM
Well I'll be damned. Jones might actually pull this out after all.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on December 12, 2017, 09:56:24 PM
CNN exit polls now has Jones ahead.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 09:56:51 PM
Quote
Wow, it really is just something you made up rather than a statistical analysis of precinct results. I (thought I) was just jerking your chain.

Sure, it's something I've developed, but I've watched a lot of elections and have gradually refined it over time.

The basic assumption has been surprisingly robust, that the election total percentages swing less the more votes are in. It sounds like hocus pocus, but it's really not. It's all stats and error bars.

Bigger samples = less swing. Really that's all it is. It being 2/x was something I suspected and have tested it against every election I've witnessed since. PA was a special case.

Sure it's not as sexy as other models, but it's also turnout independent and precinct independent. It relies on being conservative 2/x vs 1/x


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 09:56:56 PM
I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

Sites been slow today for some reason. probably a load of users from this election.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 09:57:33 PM
55/190 now in Mobile Jones holding above 60%.

23/24 in Swing Lee/Auburn 55.7 - 42.3 Jones.

83/172 Jefferson Jones still above 80%.

51/73 Madison 55.6 - 41.3 Jones

38/99 Montgomery 72% Jones

What has to hurt Moore: Suburban Elmore, Autauga, St. Clair, Blount, Cullman, Walker, Jackson, Limestone, Lauderdale, and Colbert are nearly all in - only a handful of precincts remaining in all of them. Only Baldwin and Shelby Suburban counties left.

Jones still high on NYT

And Shelby is over 60% in.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 09:57:45 PM
I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn off that warning in your personal settings. I did that a long time ago.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on December 12, 2017, 09:59:46 PM
Making up a 26k margin between Jefferson, Montgomery, and Mobile are still very possible.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on December 12, 2017, 10:01:25 PM
538 now has Jones ahead.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 10:01:46 PM
I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn that feature off in your profile.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on December 12, 2017, 10:01:54 PM
There's about 200 precinct left to report in Moore counties, compared to the 800 or so left overall.

This reminds me of Gore v Bush in Florida 2000. Bush was ahead by 3-5% with 80% of the vote in late into the night, but all the missing precincts were in Democratic areas. Gore rallied and came within a shocking few hundred votes.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: tallguy23 on December 12, 2017, 10:02:27 PM
538 has Jones ahead by 2000 votes


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 10:03:48 PM
Major counties left:

Mobile only 55/140

Baldwin only 17/47

Hale only on Initial results

Dallas at 0%

Montgomery at 38/99

Tuscaloosa at 17./55

Birmingham 83/172

Shelby 30/48

Madison 57/73

Note the number of Moore counties on this list. All other counties are done/or 1-2 precincts left. It is all down to Jones's turnout in the cities.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 10:04:29 PM
Guys .... It's going to be close !


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 12, 2017, 10:05:37 PM
If things proceed nicely, it will be a great night


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 10:05:52 PM
Actual reported numbers now only show Moore leading by 0.7
Go Jones !


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 12, 2017, 10:06:08 PM
Jones is going to overtake Moore soon.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on December 12, 2017, 10:07:28 PM
Most precincts out from Jones counties now.  Only like 70 from Moore counties. 


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 10:08:14 PM
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
510,308   49.4%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
506,451   49.0   
Total Write-Ins

15,798   1.5   
85% reporting (1,876 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 10:08:39 PM
81% in.  Moore only ahead by 1%, a 9K vote margin.

DOUG. CAN. WIN. THIS. THING.

:O


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 10:08:48 PM
Jefferson now 120/172 76.4% Jones 21.9% Moore, 1.6% write in.

Montegomery 43/99 71.7% - 28.3% Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 12, 2017, 10:09:22 PM
I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn off that warning in your personal settings. I did that a long time ago.


Damn. Been here for three years and just found that out.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 10:09:55 PM
Given the outstanding precincts this looks like a Jones win by a a couple of percent.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on December 12, 2017, 10:10:41 PM
My god, he might do this.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Skye on December 12, 2017, 10:11:08 PM
Jones is going to overtake Moore soon.

As it stands now, I'd be more shocked if Jones loses.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Edu on December 12, 2017, 10:11:11 PM
ROTFL


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Hydera on December 12, 2017, 10:11:48 PM
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The Ex-Factor on December 12, 2017, 10:12:13 PM
A lot of Baldwin County is in now and the margin closed - Moore is only at 61% now.

P.S. Washington Post seems to have more live results than NYtimes

https://www.washingtonpost.com/special-election-results/alabama/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_ala-chart%3Aelections-2017%2Fgeneral



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 10:12:22 PM
I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn that feature off in your profile.
how


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 10:12:28 PM
Baldwin County was the last major county for Moore that was yet to be counted, it is now almost done. So there is little to none votes left that will be advantageous to Moore.
But Jones still has a good amount of votes yet to be counted in Birmingham and some smaller precincts still to count around the big cities of Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Montgomery and Mobile
Jones could do this.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 10:13:14 PM

D E M O C R A T I C _ S C O T T _ B R O W N


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Koharu on December 12, 2017, 10:13:18 PM
The closeness of this race has my superstitious side coming out. I'm not letting myself get my hopes up, because if I do, it'll blow it all. Since my personal opinion is that important. :p

But yeah, trying to remain very cautiously optimistic and not get my hopes up more than that.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: emailking on December 12, 2017, 10:14:08 PM
I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn off that warning in your personal settings. I did that a long time ago.


Damn. Been here for three years and just found that out.

13 for me. ;)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Lord Admirale on December 12, 2017, 10:14:59 PM
aaaaaaaaaaaaaAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaa
aaaaaaaaAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
aaAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaa
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 12, 2017, 10:15:42 PM
Roy Moore Republican    527,231    49.2%    
Doug Jones Democrat    527,098    49.2%

Wow. Jones has this, though.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on December 12, 2017, 10:16:26 PM
Jones got another jump in NYT just now.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The Other Castro on December 12, 2017, 10:17:09 PM
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279404.msg5954279#msg5954279


AWWWYEAAAAAA


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: muon2 on December 12, 2017, 10:17:53 PM
I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn that feature off in your profile.
how

Go to the Look and Layout Preferences. Click the box the says "Don't warn on new replies made while posting."


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Xing on December 12, 2017, 10:17:58 PM
Hell just froze over. Moore's toast. Jones actually won. I've never been happier to have been wrong in my life. I'll happily eat a double platter of crow tonight. There are limits to partisan loyalty.

Before people go predicting a Democratic majority in the Senate next year, know that a lot can happen in 11 months, and this race was a very special case.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 10:18:50 PM
Jolly Democrat

Edit your post!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 10:19:16 PM
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Doug Jones
Democrat
532,452   49.3%   
Roy Moore
Republican
530,766   49.1   
Total Write-Ins

16,850   1.6   
86% reporting (1,914 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: cvparty on December 12, 2017, 10:19:23 PM
i mean it took a pedophile...;)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 10:19:32 PM
HE DID IT


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Jeppe on December 12, 2017, 10:19:39 PM
I haven't actually made a prediction yet for this race. I predicted the VA 2017 to a tee, so let's see how I do in 48 hours or so. I'm going to predict a narrow 3 point Jones win, but I definitely feel less confident about this than my VA prediction, where I just knew that Dems were going to outperform the polls

 I think the electorate will be different than what pollsters/people are expecting, especially with Republican turnout. I can certainly see a large portion of Republicans waking up on election day and despite supporting Moore, decide not to show up to the polls.

I guessed the VA election and the margin on the dot, and it looks like Alabama is the same story. Go me! Go me! Go me!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Virginiá on December 12, 2017, 10:19:41 PM
Jones advantage keeps decreasing on NYT, com'on fake news!

(how the heck are you supposed to post when every time you hit "post" you get the Warning - new posts kickback?)

You can disable that in your profile settings - I think under on the Layout page.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 10:20:24 PM
Jones is leading !!!!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on December 12, 2017, 10:20:57 PM
What an absolute disgrace. How stupid are the hicks of Alabama?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Beet on December 12, 2017, 10:21:05 PM
So happy to be wrong about this one.
This isn't a repudiation of Trumpism, except insofar as it shows that voters do care about sexual assault/harassment.
It's a testament to the decency of (most of) the people of Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: JerryArkansas on December 12, 2017, 10:21:36 PM
He could still lose this, not celebration yet.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Person Man on December 12, 2017, 10:21:40 PM
Looks like Moore came in a little behind...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Virginiá on December 12, 2017, 10:22:04 PM
I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn that feature off in your profile.
how

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=16034

That's your profile - go to the bottom and change it in the settings.I think the relevant setting to change is on the Layout/Personalization page.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 10:22:25 PM
Looks like a lot of posters have some explaining to do.

Where did they go ?
Why are they not commenting any more ?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: emailking on December 12, 2017, 10:22:25 PM
NY Times has Jones >95% chance to win.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pyro on December 12, 2017, 10:22:29 PM
NYT changed it to >95% Jones. They're getting ready to call it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 10:22:41 PM
JONES LEAD

>99% ON NYT CHANCE OF VICTORY.

WHERE IS ICE_SPEAR?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 10:22:54 PM
WULFRIC PROJECTION: JONES WINS

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Doug Jones
Democrat
569,114   49.6%
   
Roy Moore
Republican
560,804   48.8   
Total Write-Ins

18,190   1.6   
88% reporting (1,962 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Illiniwek on December 12, 2017, 10:22:56 PM
LOLZ. WHERE IS YOUR MODEL NOW? ? ? ?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Silent Hunter on December 12, 2017, 10:23:46 PM
Very happy to be wrong about this one. Oh to be a fly on the wall at the White House...


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: scutosaurus on December 12, 2017, 10:24:25 PM
DOUG DOUG DOUG DOUG DOUG

Great job, Alabama!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Lord Admirale on December 12, 2017, 10:24:29 PM
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on December 12, 2017, 10:24:59 PM
Dilly Dilly!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 10:25:02 PM

Hopefully Kenobi will fyck off for another 6 months without bothering us.

Anyhoo.


HE DID IT!!!!!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on December 12, 2017, 10:25:19 PM
FOX called it for JONES!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Xing on December 12, 2017, 10:25:44 PM
Mooretha Coakley


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 10:25:58 PM
Why Jones is Now >95%? Tuscaloosa finished. 55/55 57.2% Jones, 40.9% Moore, 1.9% Write in.

I REPEAT - WHERE IS ICE_SPEAR?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 12, 2017, 10:26:04 PM
NYTimes call it for Jones.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Admiral Kizaru on December 12, 2017, 10:26:07 PM
AP CALLS IT!!

HAHAHAHAH!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 10:26:26 PM
DOUG PULLS AHEAD!  YAAAASSSSSS

Finally.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 10:26:27 PM

LOL.
That is great coming from Fox ..... but will the Deplorables say that it is "Fake" news ?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MasterJedi on December 12, 2017, 10:26:38 PM
If it does happen I will be happy to be wrong. And the kicker is he gets to stay in for 3 years and totally screw over the Republicans guaranteed vote for that time. Please let it happen and have Collins and Murkowski tank this tax bullsh**t.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 10:26:41 PM
Sup fam, told you guys Jones would win. Rapin' Roy did not respect the Southern Genteel tradition of respecting ladies and therefore lost. Press F5 to pay your respects to molestin' Moore


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AustralianSwingVoter on December 12, 2017, 10:26:48 PM
BREAKING: Democrat Doug Jones wins election as U.S. senator from Alabama. @AP race call at 10:23 p.m. EST. #AlabamaElection #APracecall


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: _ on December 12, 2017, 10:27:03 PM
WHERE
IS
ICE
SPEAR
NOW

ALABAMA HAS DONE IT


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on December 12, 2017, 10:27:13 PM

Want to revisit this?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BudgieForce on December 12, 2017, 10:27:47 PM
YAAASSS


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Angrie on December 12, 2017, 10:27:55 PM
WTF? A Democrat won a close/contested race?

And what's more... In Alabama?

WTF I say?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pyro on December 12, 2017, 10:28:05 PM
KABOOM!!!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Nyvin on December 12, 2017, 10:28:24 PM
Wow!   I really can't believe this,   a Democratic, pro-choice senator in Alabama!  I was incredibly skeptical.

That...is....amazing.   

Jones actually won this,  just wow!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 12, 2017, 10:28:30 PM
ROY MOORE: F*** YOU
STEVE BANNON: F*** YOU
DONALD TRUMP: F*** YOU

LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

DOUG JONES! DOUG JONES! DOUG JONES!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 10:28:43 PM

Hopefully Kenobi will fyck off for another 6 months without bothering us.
Anyhoo.

HE DID IT!!!!!

Yes .... where did Kenobi go ?
Where is his great voting model of the 21 century ?
Kenobi should have used the Jedi Force with his numbers .... maybe that would have helped.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on December 12, 2017, 10:29:17 PM
Doug Jones will probably lose in 2020, unfortunately.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Beet on December 12, 2017, 10:29:29 PM
Current mood:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye5BuYf8q4o


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: WilliamStone1776 on December 12, 2017, 10:29:48 PM
WE HAVE DONE THE IMPOSSIBLE AND THAT MAKES US MIGHTY


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on December 12, 2017, 10:30:41 PM
2016: Donald Trump elected President
2017: Democratic candidate wins Alabama Senate race

We are truly in insane times.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Helsinkian on December 12, 2017, 10:31:11 PM
CNN calls it for JONES.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Santander on December 12, 2017, 10:31:24 PM
The Dixiecrats are coming home!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Koharu on December 12, 2017, 10:31:36 PM
Oh, my Lord. This is fantastic. I'm going to keep watching the numbers come in, but God bless the people of Alabama. They did the right thing when it was on the line. Congrats, Senator Jones!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pericles on December 12, 2017, 10:32:18 PM
It's been called!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Horsemask on December 12, 2017, 10:32:35 PM
So happy with this!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BlueDogDemocrat on December 12, 2017, 10:32:43 PM
CNN CALLS IT FOR JONES!!!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on December 12, 2017, 10:32:59 PM
Doug Jones will probably lose in 2020, unfortunately.
Democrats can hope Moore wins the GOP nomination again in 2020, but yeah, it'll take something like that to do it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Comrade Funk on December 12, 2017, 10:33:38 PM
But my projections said Moore would win....

Get ed Moore


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: emailking on December 12, 2017, 10:33:46 PM
Wish MSNBC would call it so they can stop pretending like it's technically uncertain.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Skye on December 12, 2017, 10:34:17 PM
IceSpear needs to get out of here.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: OkThen on December 12, 2017, 10:34:29 PM

???


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Angrie on December 12, 2017, 10:34:31 PM
Doug Jones will probably lose in 2020, unfortunately.

Yes, good to see some realistic pessimism in the midst of this fluke.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 10:34:58 PM
Doug Jones will probably lose in 2020, unfortunately.

More than likely you are probably correct.
But the important thing is that Alabama rejected a pedophile, and they also rejected the president's calling for this child molester to be seated in our government.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 10:35:16 PM
We can now call him SENATOR DOUG JONES (D-AL)!

And Roy Moore's new nickname can be Mooretha Choakeley.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Bojack Horseman on December 12, 2017, 10:35:29 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDJUot9OBLc


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pericles on December 12, 2017, 10:35:37 PM
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 10:35:41 PM
I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn that feature off in your profile.
how

Go to the Look and Layout Preferences. Click the box the says "Don't warn on new replies made while posting."
thank you so much and I cant believe jones won yes!!!!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 10:35:53 PM
CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Doug Jones
Democrat
602,515   49.6%
   
Roy Moore
Republican
592,729   48.8   
Total Write-Ins

20,219   1.7   
93% reporting (2,057 of 2,220 precincts)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: emailking on December 12, 2017, 10:36:08 PM
Also means Jones can vote his conscious instead of trying to cater to a conservative state.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 12, 2017, 10:37:11 PM
First moments after the blast responsible for destruction of the Republican Senate majority, December 12, 2017 (colorized)

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AustralianSwingVoter on December 12, 2017, 10:37:31 PM
O Really?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 10:37:42 PM
Can we get Bannon to nominate some more retards for us....I'm looking at Dems winning Wyoming in 2018 too


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 10:38:36 PM
BROWN VS COAKLEY 2 - ALABAMA BOOGALOO


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: cvparty on December 12, 2017, 10:38:54 PM
Doug Jones will probably lose in 2020, unfortunately.
Democrats can hope Moore wins the GOP nomination again in 2020, but yeah, it'll take something like that to do it.
tbh jones's re-election isn't that inconceivable


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Lord Admirale on December 12, 2017, 10:39:05 PM
Alabama GOP be like
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: adrac on December 12, 2017, 10:39:39 PM
Anyone heard from IceSpear?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: InheritTheWind on December 12, 2017, 10:39:47 PM
TEACH ME HOW TO DOUGIE AHHHHHHHHH


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 10:39:53 PM
He'll probably leave the forum for a year again


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: HisGrace on December 12, 2017, 10:40:45 PM
Can we get Bannon to nominate some more retards for us....I'm looking at Dems winning Wyoming in 2018 too

Bannon must be a cuck who loves losing.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Lord Admirale on December 12, 2017, 10:41:18 PM
I AM DOUG JONES, DESTROYER OF PEDOPHILES
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on December 12, 2017, 10:41:37 PM
JONES WINS


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on December 12, 2017, 10:42:03 PM
Great poll!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pericles on December 12, 2017, 10:42:27 PM
"With Jones now having been declared the winner by the AP, it’s hard not to see some parallels between his prospective win in Alabama and the Republican Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts in January 2010, which occurred at similar points in the respective presidencies of Trump and Barack Obama.

Yes, there are a lot of differences: Most notably that Martha Coakley — Brown’s opponent in Massachusetts — was not accused of being a child molester, for example.

But both wins were pretty narrow. And despite extenuating circumstances, neither would probably have occurred if the political winds weren’t blowing strongly — toward Republicans in 2010 and toward Democrats in 2017."-Nate Silver

I told you that Doug would be the Democrat Scott Brown!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 10:43:09 PM
This is one of the top 10 moments of my life.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 12, 2017, 10:43:45 PM

Great state!

Alabama #redeemed!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: HisGrace on December 12, 2017, 10:44:25 PM
I never bought into this whole "muh inelasticity/polarization" nonsense, especially considering that this was a special election.

Also, like I said before, it's not a surprise that the same people who wrote off Jones before today are already declaring him DOA in 2020. Big mistake, but whatever.

Well, I don't think anyone had any reason to be super confident either way. This was obviously going to be very close.

He's going to have a hard time in 2020 unless the GOP nominates another psycho (or Moore again, LOL) although he'll at least get some incumbency advantage and do better than the average Dem in Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 10:45:14 PM
Let's take a moment to realize what's happened here.

The Republican Party has thrown away a safe Senate seat in Alabama, for at least the next three years.  Moreover, it's one that could cost them their majority next year.

Consider the ways this could have been avoided:

Trump could have nominated someone other than Sessions to be Attorney General.

Bentley could have appointed someone other than Strange as a placeholder, which would have avoided the hint of corruption.

Ivey could have left the special election next November instead of moving it up to this year.

Any one of these would have avoided the loss of the seat.  There's a lot of political stupidity at any time.  But it's rare to see such consistently creative stupidity as the GOP committed here.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3
Post by: jimrtex on December 12, 2017, 10:45:49 PM
Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

If someone is put down as inactive, can they still vote?
"Inactive" has nothing to do with active.

If election officials send something to a voter and it is returned, they then have to send a forwardable notice to the voter. The voter can:

(1) Reply, I've moved to another county or state. The election officials in his former location may have responsibility to explain how to re-register, and if it is within the same state, perhaps to automatically do it, or at least send the information on to the new county. But in this case they can be removed from the rolls in their former county, because they can't vote there.
(2) Reply, I'm still here, or perhaps I'm on a work assignment, active duty, at college, etc., but my domicile is unchanged. In this case they remain on the active voter rolls.
(3) Not respond, either because they ignored the postcard, or never received it. They are put on the "inactive" list. If they don't vote for the next two federal elections, they are purged. If they show up to vote, they can vote and are removed from the inactive list.

So an "inactive" voter is one who election officials have lost contact with, and if they are inactive for the next two federal election cycles will be purged. They will be removed from the list for the following reasons:

(1) They make contact, and affirm that they have moved out of the registrars jurisdiction, or are confirmed to have died. Removed from the voter rolls completely.
(2) They make contact, including turning up at the polls and voting. If necessary their registration is updated to a new address, and are put back on the active rolls.
(3) The don't make contact, and don't vote over the next two federal elections. They are purged.

So a "regular voter" might be someone who voted in 2008 and 2012, skipped 2010 and 2014 because they don't vote in "every election", and missed 2016. Maybe their girlfriend kicked them out, and and sent the card back "addressee unknown", and then they later reconciled.

Maybe the voter believes they have intuition about what they were told. If a white election official  told a black voter, it might be interpreted as "I'm Jane Crow, Jim Crow's grandaughter". Or maybe the election judge who is being paid minimum wage will assure the voter that the folks down at "the county" are always messing up like this. Most assuredly if the election judge actually did try to explain the use of the term, they'd be presumed to be making it up.

And it can be useful to push turnout. You can have radio station WBHO or WMLK interviewing a voter, and have someone explain that it is just "Bull Conners" all over again, and tell voters to vote, and don't let "them" deny your right to vote.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: tallguy23 on December 12, 2017, 10:46:28 PM
A great night for decency and morals. This is what happens when you endorse a child f***** for Senate.

Now go to hell Roy Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 10:46:39 PM
With 94% of votes counted, there are a total of approx 21,000 write-in votes.
Jones only leads by about 13,000.
What if those "write-in" would have been for Moore.
We may have had a different story.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AustralianSwingVoter on December 12, 2017, 10:47:22 PM
What is NBC doing? How can they still think that it's "Too Close To Call"?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on December 12, 2017, 10:48:27 PM
Thank you Alabama <3


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 12, 2017, 10:49:27 PM
Let's take a moment to realize what's happened here.

The Republican Party has thrown away a safe Senate seat in Alabama, for at least the next three years.  Moreover, it's one that could cost them their majority next year.

Consider the ways this could have been avoided:

Trump could have nominated someone other than Sessions to be Attorney General.

Bentley could have appointed someone other than Strange as a placeholder, which would have avoided the hint of corruption.

Ivey could have left the special election next November instead of moving it up to this year.

Any one of these would have avoided the loss of the seat.  There's a lot of political stupidity at any time.  But it's rare to see such consistently creative stupidity as the GOP committed here.

This, so much. Especially Ivey's decision to move the special election up to this year was incredibly stupid. I hate to brag about this, but I called this before.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Adam Griffin on December 12, 2017, 10:49:40 PM
I'm glad to be wrong, and I'll be happy to eat SWEET POTATO PIE N A-SHUT MUH MOUTH


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 10:50:03 PM
And with that, the troll retreats silently under the bridge, defeated and wounded.

(Terry Sanford)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Illiniwek on December 12, 2017, 10:51:44 PM
Looking forward to Roy Moore's concession speech that he didn't prepare for tonight.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Holmes on December 12, 2017, 10:51:45 PM
Ben Kenobi fix your model


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ilikeverin on December 12, 2017, 10:52:14 PM
Interesting thing I noticed: two of the counties where Jones most overperformed compared to, say, 538's 50/50 map are Tuscaloosa and Lee counties, home of Alabama and Auburn.  Young people turned out, and/or shifted D.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Angrie on December 12, 2017, 10:54:09 PM
The Republican Party has thrown away a safe Senate seat in Alabama, for at least the next three years.  Moreover, it's one that could cost them their majority next year.

Let's not get carried away now.

The Republican Party has thrown away a safe Senate seat in Alabama, for at least the next three years.  Moreover, it's one that could cost them their majority next year.

That's better.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 10:54:17 PM
Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AustralianSwingVoter on December 12, 2017, 10:54:38 PM
What is NBC doing? How can they still think that it's "Too Close To Call"?
NBC has Finally stopped dragging their feet and has called the race. Finally


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 10:54:50 PM

And with that, the troll retreats silently under the bridge, defeated and wounded.
(Terry Sanford)

LOL.
I like that.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on December 12, 2017, 10:55:39 PM

This.

GLORIOUS RESULTS


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Comrade Funk on December 12, 2017, 10:55:43 PM

Quote
Where are you getting these numbers

My model assumes that the swing vote is no greater than 2/x where x is the percentage total number of votes counted*100. I've tested it for countless elections, and it's only once been wrong - the PA election last year calling against Trump.

So in this example, 65 percent of the vote is in.

So 2/65 = 3.07. That added to Jones gives us 45.3 + 3.07 = 48

This is under 50 percent so Jones cannot catch Roy Moore.

Within 2% I won't call until 90 percent is in. The model is less good with really close elections.

I also give it an extra percent before I call the election - a 'fudge factor' if you will so that takes care of the 1% off calls, as in PA for Clinton. I also try to call the 'downswings'. Has to have two sections above the callable point.

At 1/x the candidate has a 'statistical lead' meaning that the other candidate is officially behind.
New meme


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: DrScholl on December 12, 2017, 10:56:54 PM
Looking forward to Roy Moore's concession speech that he didn't prepare for tonight.
I don't think he will concede, much like Allen West didn't.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: SteveRogers on December 12, 2017, 10:57:22 PM
Faith in humanity restored. Well, 49.6% restored at least. I'll take it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 10:57:23 PM
I must admit that I'm looking forward to tomorrow's Trump tweets.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Virginiá on December 12, 2017, 10:57:32 PM
Amazing!!!

So when exactly does Jones take office?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The Dowager Mod on December 12, 2017, 10:58:03 PM
Meghan McCain‏
Verified account
 
@MeghanMcCain

Suck it, Bannon

HAHAHA!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Hammy on December 12, 2017, 10:58:23 PM
What is NBC doing? How can they still think that it's "Too Close To Call"?

Does NBC ever know what they're doing with election coverage?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: cvparty on December 12, 2017, 10:58:27 PM
looking at alabama in dark blue on the 270towin senate map now is just so funny


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on December 12, 2017, 10:59:31 PM
Trump I would assume is deep into a KFC and ice cream binge, will the results tonight cause him to have a coronary?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 10:59:31 PM
Amazing!!!

So when exactly does Jones take office?

The SoS previously said the election probably won't be certified until the first week of January.  Strange will remain in the Senate until then.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on December 12, 2017, 10:59:38 PM
Today was a good day. Human decency won and Alabama redeemed itself.

Man I'm exuberant right now!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on December 12, 2017, 10:59:51 PM
Dominating.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 11:00:12 PM

We need to bump this image for all to see again.
Enjoy.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: emailking on December 12, 2017, 11:00:22 PM
Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.

Even if a recount is triggered, I think it's incredibly unlikely that it could overturn this margin.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Roronoa D. Law on December 12, 2017, 11:00:44 PM
This is a win for Alabama. As for the GOP the most worrisome thing is the black turnout compared to the rural white turnout.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Hammy on December 12, 2017, 11:02:07 PM
Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.

Even if a recount is triggered, I think it's incredibly unlikely that it could overturn this margin.

You sure they won't simply "lose" votes or "find" new ones?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 11:02:18 PM
Lesson learned for Democrats tonight:

Leave NO race uncontested next year.  

Oh, and how did that special state house election go in AL?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 12, 2017, 11:02:51 PM
God bless Alabama!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on December 12, 2017, 11:02:55 PM
Ben Kenobi hasn't taking an L like this since the Death Star.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 11:03:02 PM

Hopefully this is the death kneel to people following ANYONES models. Their all junk


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 11:04:02 PM
Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.

Even if a recount is triggered, I think it's incredibly unlikely that it could overturn this margin.

Looks like most of the count yet to report is around the huge city of Birmingham (and a tiny bit around Mobile).
So Jones' lead will only grow more.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: emailking on December 12, 2017, 11:04:09 PM
Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.

Even if a recount is triggered, I think it's incredibly unlikely that it could overturn this margin.

You sure they won't simply "lose" votes or "find" new ones?

That happens in every recount. My knowledge of that was factored into my conclusion.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 12, 2017, 11:04:38 PM
Are Republicans tired of winning yet?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez on December 12, 2017, 11:05:50 PM
Moore didn't lose many votes from when he defeated Robert Vance (D) for Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court.  He beat Vance with 51% in 2012; he lost tonight with a smidge under 49%.  

The CNN hacks are speaking of this race as a referendum on Trump.  That's nonsense.  Moore had problems in Alabama long before the sexual allegations came to light.  Yes, Trump "endorsed" Moore, but he hardly put the full prestige of the White House behind Moore.  Trump let himself be used for a robocall, but he kept his distance.  I am predicting that Trump will be putting a bit of distance between himself and Steve Bannon in the coming days.  (Indeed, Bannon is the 2nd biggest loser tonight, behind Moore.)

If Trump has half a brain, he'll meet with Jones and discuss common ground.  Jones is a tabula rasa; he is not locked into being a liberal headed toward a Kamikaze mission in 2020.  I'm not sure Trump sees that, however.  That would be his loss.  

Jones has a chance to be the kind of Democrat that appeals to the working class in a way that doesn't alienate them, and I hope he takes it.  He's not going to have Moore as his 2020 opponent.  



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The Dowager Mod on December 12, 2017, 11:05:51 PM
So Trump backed the loser in both the primary and the general, So much winning!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: heatcharger on December 12, 2017, 11:06:02 PM
Can LimoLiberal just concern troll every election now?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on December 12, 2017, 11:06:09 PM
God Bless Alabama and God Bless Doug Jones. This is one of the happiest nights of my life


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on December 12, 2017, 11:06:24 PM
Amazing!!!

So when exactly does Jones take office?

Alabama law gives them 22 days to certify election results, and I fully expect them to use every day they can to give the Senate as much time as possible on the tax bill, so January 3 at the earliest.  Jones won't get even one day in the current session and probably will miss the first few days of the 2nd session of this Congress.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 11:07:12 PM
wtf I love Alabama now


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 12, 2017, 11:08:00 PM
Based on tonight's result, I am going to make the following rating change:

MISSOURI SENATE:

OLD RATING: LIKELY R
NEW RATING: LEAN R


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: HisGrace on December 12, 2017, 11:08:15 PM

Their heads are probably spinning


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 11:08:44 PM
Lol, Jones walked out to Teach Me How To Dougie


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 11:09:26 PM
This is a great victory for women


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: HisGrace on December 12, 2017, 11:10:58 PM
Based on tonight's result, I am going to make the following rating change:

MISSOURI SENATE:

OLD RATING: LIKELY R
NEW RATING: LEAN R

Don't really know what this election has to do with any other ones, other than lowering the threshold for the Dems to retake the Senate due to Republicans throwing away what should have been the safest of safe seats. Fortunately I doubt they're going to nominate pedophiles/slavery apologists across the board in 2018.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 11:11:02 PM
Monmouth was a big winner tonight.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 11:11:25 PM
Bannon has been discredited


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 12, 2017, 11:11:33 PM
WHERE IS ICESPEAR


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: DrScholl on December 12, 2017, 11:11:54 PM
I'm sure this has already been asked, but where is Ice Spear?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: No War, but the War on Christmas on December 12, 2017, 11:12:00 PM
Trump finally tweets; shockingly civil compared to his usual tweet storms...

Quote
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on December 12, 2017, 11:12:14 PM
Can LimoLiberal just concern troll every election now?

I said it. LimoLiberal is a reverse banshee.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 11:12:27 PM
Trump finally tweets; shockingly civil compared to his usual tweet storms...

Quote
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!

Probably since he didn't write it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 11:12:53 PM
I won't rest easy until all precincts are counted - I remember 2002. So I will be here until 100% is in.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The Dowager Mod on December 12, 2017, 11:13:09 PM
Trump finally tweets; shockingly civil compared to his usual tweet storms...

Quote
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!
Bet Kelly got his phone and tweeted that.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 11:13:47 PM
Can LimoLiberal just concern troll every election now?
"I think the Gillibrand/Jones ticket is going to get less than 100 electoral votes tonight. Trump flips Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine and Oregon."


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Illiniwek on December 12, 2017, 11:13:49 PM
Trump finally tweets; shockingly civil compared to his usual tweet storms...

Quote
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!

Probably since he didn't write it.

Yeah, cmon. This isn't the way he normally talks. No way it is his.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:14:25 PM
And we all thought the NYT model was nuts...

Anyways this has been the best night Democrats have had since 2012. This is an utter embarrassment for the GOP and Trump as it is his second endorsement to fail in Alabama. This was a rebuke to Bannon and Trump.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:15:16 PM
The souls of the four little girls who were killed in the 16th Street Baptist Church bombing are smiling down from heaven tonight!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on December 12, 2017, 11:15:34 PM
Trump finally tweets; shockingly civil compared to his usual tweet storms...

Quote
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!

Probably since he didn't write it.

Yeah, cmon. This isn't the way he normally talks. No way it is his.

Yeah, we will hear the real Trump in the morning.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: heatcharger on December 12, 2017, 11:16:08 PM
Can LimoLiberal just concern troll every election now?
"I think the Gillibrand/Jones ticket is going to get less than 100 electoral votes tonight. Trump flips Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine and Oregon."

Jones honestly needs to be at the top of most VP shortlists. Southern white guy with a stellar background, and oh yeah, he took out a pedophile.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 11:16:16 PM
The CNN hacks are speaking of this race as a referendum on Trump .... Yes, Trump "endorsed" Moore, but he hardly put the full prestige of the White House behind Moore.  

.... (Indeed, Bannon is the 2nd biggest loser tonight, behind Moore.)

If Trump has half a brain, he'll meet with Jones and discuss common ground.

Wrong, wrong and wrong.

1. This is a BIG middle-finger to trump! Yuge!
2. trump is the 2nd biggest loser tonight, Bannon is 3rd.
3. LOL at you thinking that "trump has half a brain." He just recently tweeted to another Senator suggesting that she should be "begging" (trump put that in quotes), which was a sexist smear to women, and you think that trump can activate "half a brain?"  Who are you kidding ?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 12, 2017, 11:16:17 PM
https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/940794703292878848

Quote
Source close to the RNC tells me folks there are furious with Ronna McDaniel over their move to jump back in the race for Moore.

“Congratulations on dropping the Romney name and picking up a pedophile. Proud day for the RNC.”


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 11:16:49 PM
Doug Jones, even outside of politics, is a very good man. I'd be proud to have him as a Senator from any state.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Virginiá on December 12, 2017, 11:17:00 PM

The CNN hacks are speaking of this race as a referendum on Trump.
 That's nonsense.  Moore had problems in Alabama long before the sexual allegations came to light.  Yes, Trump "endorsed" Moore, but he hardly put the full prestige of the White House behind Moore.  Trump let himself be used for a robocall, but he kept his distance.  I am predicting that Trump will be putting a bit of distance between himself and Steve Bannon in the coming days.  (Indeed, Bannon is the 2nd biggest loser tonight, behind Moore.)

Eh, that's something you would expect them to say. But to be fair here, there is an undeniable surge of enthusiasm post-2016 that no doubt Jones benefited from. The money, the volunteering, the anti-Trump enthusiasm gap, this all helped him. Given how close the margin is, it's reasonable to say that Moore could have won if Clinton was president, even if only by a small margin.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 11:17:12 PM
Lol, Jones walked out to Teach Me How To Dougie
really?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on December 12, 2017, 11:17:20 PM
Bill Kristol predicted all this in August:

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/895962020687880192

Quote
Perfect end to 2017
Aug 15: Roy Moore leads in GOP AL Sen primary.
Sep 26: Moore wins runoff.
Dec 12: Dems win seat.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: SteveRogers on December 12, 2017, 11:17:32 PM
Trump finally tweets; shockingly civil compared to his usual tweet storms...

Quote
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!

Probably since he didn't write it.

Yeah, cmon. This isn't the way he normally talks. No way it is his.

Yeah, this was clearly written by someone trying hard to mimic the formula of a Trump tweet.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:17:49 PM
Lol they are showing the Moore rally and it is depressing as hell. Half the people can't walk without a walker and most are balding lmao


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 11:18:27 PM
Be careful.  Those awful Alabama Republicans might pull a Minnesota on you.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: JA on December 12, 2017, 11:18:33 PM
Although I was quite confident Moore would win this election, I'm certainly glad that Jones won so there's one less Republican in the Senate and a pedophile is denied even the chance of obtaining such a high status, powerful position.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 7,052,770 on December 12, 2017, 11:19:03 PM
CNN says Jones won't take office until January.

I thought special election winners took office immediately?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:19:35 PM
I know a lot of people like to rail on the DNC and the Democratic leadership but you must admit they handled this race perfectly.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on December 12, 2017, 11:19:35 PM
Bill Kristol predicted all this in August:

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/895962020687880192

Quote
Perfect end to 2017
Aug 15: Roy Moore leads in GOP AL Sen primary.
Sep 26: Moore wins runoff.
Dec 12: Dems win seat.


Amazing


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 11:19:41 PM
Trump finally tweets; shockingly civil compared to his usual tweet storms...

Quote
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!

Probably since he didn't write it.

Yeah, cmon. This isn't the way he normally talks. No way it is his.

Yeah, we will hear the real Trump in the morning.

You mean like at 3 or 4 am Eastern time, when his babysitters are not watching him ?
He probably hides in the closet while tweeting.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: SamTilden2020 on December 12, 2017, 11:20:08 PM
Lesson learned for Democrats tonight:

Leave NO race uncontested next year.  

Oh, and how did that special state house election go in AL?

And we all thought the NYT model was nuts...

Anyways this has been the best night Democrats have had since 2012. This is an utter embarrassment for the GOP and Trump as it is his second endorsement to fail in Alabama. This was a rebuke to Bannon and Trump.

Remember, the AL GOP nominated their worst candidate BY FAR this race. Just because RM is a pedo, doesn't mean Cruz, Wicker, the TN nominee, and Fischer are doomed.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez on December 12, 2017, 11:20:34 PM
Trump I would assume is deep into a KFC and ice cream binge, will the results tonight cause him to have a coronary?

If I were Trump, I'd go out for Church's Fried Chicken and have their corn on the cob.  That's definitely the ticket to a massive heart attack.  Especially if they still have their deep fried apple pie.

Trump DID have a coherent tweet on Jones' victory:

Quote
Donald J. Trump‏Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
Follow Follow @realDonaldTrump
More
Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time. It never ends!

For Trump, that's actually pretty good.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 12, 2017, 11:20:45 PM
https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/940794703292878848

Quote
Source close to the RNC tells me folks there are furious with Ronna McDaniel over their move to jump back in the race for Moore.

“Congratulations on dropping the Romney name and picking up a pedophile. Proud day for the RNC.”

Ouch


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: HillGoose on December 12, 2017, 11:20:50 PM
The right thing was done tonight.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 11:21:46 PM
Mobile Finished up - Now waiting on 25 Precincts from Jefferson. NYT suspects will push Jones to 1%, but is it drops his margin, we could be in recount territory.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:21:58 PM
This was a lose-lose situation for Trump. Jones winning was just a slightly better outcome. Don't get me wrong, Trump is NOT happy about this. He pulled HARD for Moore and he lost.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Storebought on December 12, 2017, 11:22:10 PM
Alabama black voters must not have got the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/doug-joness-problem-african-american-voters-not-energized-by-alabama-senate-race/2017/11/24/c305a2ec-ce31-11e7-a1a3-0d1e45a6de3d_story.html?utm_term=.dbce37936f4b) memo that their turnout for this election was supposed to be depressed (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/jones-boost-black-turnout-alabama-senate-race-51524885) for lack of a black candidate at the top of the ticket.

Oh well. The GOP can study the turnout data from this election to find new ways to suppress the black vote for the next time around.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 11:22:25 PM
I know a lot of people like to rail on the DNC and the Democratic leadership but you must admit they handled this race perfectly.
Schumer's strategic sense is incredible


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 12, 2017, 11:22:44 PM
Moore refusing to concede LOL (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/roy-moore-loss-election-concede-doug-jones-supporters-pray-a8106836.html)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on December 12, 2017, 11:22:53 PM
Bill Kristol predicted all this in August:

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/895962020687880192

Quote
Perfect end to 2017
Aug 15: Roy Moore leads in GOP AL Sen primary.
Sep 26: Moore wins runoff.
Dec 12: Dems win seat.


This might be the most surprising tidbit of this whole saga: Kristol predicted something right for once.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:22:55 PM
https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/940794703292878848

Quote
Source close to the RNC tells me folks there are furious with Ronna McDaniel over their move to jump back in the race for Moore.

“Congratulations on dropping the Romney name and picking up a pedophile. Proud day for the RNC.”

Ouch

Ronna has been an absolute dumpster fire as RNC chair. She's sh**t at campaigning and organizing.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 11:23:20 PM
Alabama has more Democratic senators than Iowa. Let that sink in!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 11:23:32 PM
Where are Greedo and Arkansas Yankee?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: The Dowager Mod on December 12, 2017, 11:23:50 PM
I read somewhere that Nick Saban will come in third from write ins. :D


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:24:30 PM
The PredictIt trolls had a meltdown and it was glorious.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on December 12, 2017, 11:24:34 PM
I don't believe I've ever been so happy to have been wrong about politics.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 12, 2017, 11:24:58 PM
I WAS WRONG WOOHOO!!!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez on December 12, 2017, 11:25:17 PM
https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/940794703292878848

Quote
Source close to the RNC tells me folks there are furious with Ronna McDaniel over their move to jump back in the race for Moore.

“Congratulations on dropping the Romney name and picking up a pedophile. Proud day for the RNC.”

Ouch

Ronna has been an absolute dumpster fire as RNC chair. She's sh**t at campaigning and organizing.
This.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 11:25:18 PM
I read somewhere that Nick Saban will come in third from write ins. :D

Will he have to play Clemson?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 11:26:47 PM
https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/940794703292878848

Quote
Source close to the RNC tells me folks there are furious with Ronna McDaniel over their move to jump back in the race for Moore.

“Congratulations on dropping the Romney name and picking up a pedophile. Proud day for the RNC.”

Ouch

Ronna has been an absolute dumpster fire as RNC chair. She's sh**t at campaigning and organizing.

LMAO.
Sh*t is on the GOP's face for actually jumping back-in and supporting this child molester.
"Disgusting." (I put that word in quotes just for you Fuzzy).
;)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: publicunofficial on December 12, 2017, 11:27:47 PM
There is no reason to EVER run a pro-life Dem again.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: libertpaulian on December 12, 2017, 11:28:08 PM
And English Pete!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 12, 2017, 11:28:41 PM
Mobile Finished up - Now waiting on 25 Precincts from Jefferson. NYT suspects will push Jones to 1%, but is it drops his margin, we could be in recount territory.

I'm really scared about a potential recount.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on December 12, 2017, 11:29:00 PM
There is no reason to EVER run a pro-life Dem again.

I wouldn't go that far. This election became a referendum on Moore's fitness for office. We won't get so lucky in every race to have our candidate escape scrutiny.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 11:29:11 PM
The CNN hacks are speaking of this race as a referendum on Trump .... Yes, Trump "endorsed" Moore, but he hardly put the full prestige of the White House behind Moore.  

.... (Indeed, Bannon is the 2nd biggest loser tonight, behind Moore.)

If Trump has half a brain, he'll meet with Jones and discuss common ground.

Wrong, wrong and wrong.

1. This is a BIG middle-finger to trump! Yuge!
2. trump is the 2nd biggest loser tonight, Bannon is 3rd.
3. LOL at you thinking that "trump has half a brain." He just recently tweeted to another Senator suggesting that she should be "begging" (trump put that in quotes), which was a sexist smear to women, and you think that trump can activate "half a brain?"  Who are you kidding ?


IMHO,

1) Wrong. Enough Trump voters swallowed their distaste of voting Democratic (even a good one like Jones) out of revulsion for Moore. If Jones had done anything CLOSE to making this a referendum on Trump, we'd be bemoaning Senator-elect Moore.
2) Irrelevant. They all lost big time.
3) Absolutely on track.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 11:29:21 PM
Over 22,000 write in votes.  Don’t get too cocky.  The alleged “Pedophile” almost won.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 11:29:54 PM
Over 22,000 write in votes.  Don’t get too cocky.  The alleged “Pedophile” almost won.

But he didn't, and that's what matters.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:30:26 PM
Moore speaking now


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on December 12, 2017, 11:31:08 PM
Mobile Finished up - Now waiting on 25 Precincts from Jefferson. NYT suspects will push Jones to 1%, but is it drops his margin, we could be in recount territory.

I'm really scared about a potential recount.

Recount won't happen. Jones has an 0.8% lead (0.3% away from a recount) with 16 precincts remaining in Jefferson County (Birmingham and environs). I have a really hard time seeing his margin go down, let alone down by 0.3%.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 11:31:15 PM
Recount baby. ;) Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 11:31:22 PM
Mobile Finished up - Now waiting on 25 Precincts from Jefferson. NYT suspects will push Jones to 1%, but is it drops his margin, we could be in recount territory.

Now 99% counted.
Left are a handful of precincts around Birmingham, which is "more" votes for Jones.
He currently leads by 1.1 margin


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:32:05 PM
Moore camp calling for recount. Think the military vote will put them over lmfao! Jones is leading by 19K


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 11:32:26 PM
Alabama has more Democratic senators than Iowa. Let that sink in!

Iowa does not have a black belt.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Bojack Horseman on December 12, 2017, 11:32:36 PM
This isn't going to a recount and it's not going to change. You lost, period.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 11:32:59 PM
Mobile Finished up - Now waiting on 25 Precincts from Jefferson. NYT suspects will push Jones to 1%, but is it drops his margin, we could be in recount territory.

I'm really scared about a potential recount.

I think this is going to end up outside recount territory.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on December 12, 2017, 11:33:07 PM
Thank God he lost.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Bojack Horseman on December 12, 2017, 11:33:11 PM
Sean Hannity says that Mo "Obama's War on Whites" Brooks would have won by 20 points.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Perlen vor den Schweinen on December 12, 2017, 11:33:14 PM
There is no reason to EVER run a pro-life Dem again.

You would be surprised. The people for life of America shall win bigger than you would ever believe in the future.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:33:18 PM
LMFAO he lost by 20,000 votes. There is now way military ballots or a recount will overturn that.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Pyro on December 12, 2017, 11:33:20 PM
Roy Moore is hedging on the Electoral College to push him into the Senate.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 11:33:32 PM
There is no reason to EVER run a pro-life Dem again.

Unless, say, they're running in a socially conservative state against a NON-pedophile.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: HisGrace on December 12, 2017, 11:33:36 PM
Some people are saying Black turnout was a huge part in Moore losing. Does he win if he doesn't make that stupid slavery comment?

This was a lose-lose situation for Trump. Jones winning was just a slightly better outcome. Don't get me wrong, Trump is NOT happy about this. He pulled HARD for Moore and he lost.

The fact that he endorsed Moore at all after the child molestation allegations came out is an embarrassment/political disaster for Trump. Whether Moore won or lost had nothing to do with it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: OneJ on December 12, 2017, 11:33:48 PM
What a day to celebrate!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on December 12, 2017, 11:34:08 PM
Mobile Finished up - Now waiting on 25 Precincts from Jefferson. NYT suspects will push Jones to 1%, but is it drops his margin, we could be in recount territory.

I'm really scared about a potential recount.

I think this is going to end up outside recount territory.

That's correct. The only precincts left are from Birmingham and Jones leads by 1.1%. It's done.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 11:34:10 PM
Nine of the Jefferson Precincts were released - now 13.5K Vote margin/1.1% Margin between Jones and Moore. NYT says Jones will gain a few thousand with the remaining votes. This is probably beyond recount territory now - but still scary. Moore apparently wishes for a recount.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:34:13 PM
Moore, baby, it's over. Concede.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on December 12, 2017, 11:34:23 PM
Ecstatic is an understatement!! God Bless Alabama!!

Kudos to you for swallowing your party affiliation and voting the way you did. I admire that. I hope that I find the courage to do that myself if I am ever in a situation anything like yours.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 11:34:43 PM
Republicans planning to steal the election like they did in 2002?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on December 12, 2017, 11:34:47 PM
Jones is up by almost 20,000 votes now. Dude, it's over


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 11:35:03 PM
Quote
This isn't going to a recount and it's not going to change. You lost, period.

SOP with the Dim's tactics.

When is Franken going to resign?

We're gonna do a recount and keep counting. Just like you guys did to Coleman.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on December 12, 2017, 11:35:30 PM
Recount baby. ;) Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

Ahahahahahahahha


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:35:38 PM
The race has to be a .5 margin for a recount. Doug is expected to win by over 2% lol


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on December 12, 2017, 11:35:43 PM
NYT calls all precincts in.

Jones 49.9
Moore 48.4


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on December 12, 2017, 11:35:50 PM
All precincts are in:

Jones: 49.9%
Moore: 48.4%

Jones+1.5
Pop. Vote: Jones+>20,000

Recount is not possible.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: HisGrace on December 12, 2017, 11:36:18 PM
Moore camp calling for recount. Think the military vote will put them over lmfao! Jones is leading by 19K

Unless the military has an unusual love for pedophiles or an unusual hatred for amendments 11-27 I don't think that's going to work out for him.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 12, 2017, 11:36:32 PM
Thank you all, honestly, for calming my nerves about a potential recount. I'm a pessimist and a worrier.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on December 12, 2017, 11:36:36 PM
As happy as I am I can't shake the fact that half of the state voted for a man who had considerable evidence showing that he was predatory against underage women all because he had an R next to his name.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on December 12, 2017, 11:36:43 PM
I don't see why he would even contest these results. He lost.

God I hate people who don't concede when they've lost.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Illiniwek on December 12, 2017, 11:37:01 PM
Recount baby. ;) Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

Goodness....


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 12, 2017, 11:37:08 PM
Count is Finished - 100% of Precincts in.

Jones - 670,551 49.9%

Moore - 649,240 48.4%

Write Ins - 22,777 1.7%

21K Margin, 1.5% gap. Probably too high to steal without a heavily concentrated effort. Moore however is not conceding and believes in a recount.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 11:37:12 PM
Recount baby. ;) Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

I don't think the fix is as simple as changing the value of your bounds.  The obvious problem with your model is that it doesn't account for where votes have been counted and where they remain.  In this case, Moore's best areas finished first, leaving the big Jones areas for the end.  This kind of distribution in vote counting is naturally prone to huge swings.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:37:16 PM
Secretary of State John Merrill says recount not possible and he's not comfortable meeting with Moore camp. Moore still heading to meet him.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: riceowl on December 12, 2017, 11:37:44 PM
He's at 50!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:38:11 PM
Moore not conceding continues to show how rotten he is.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Mike Thick on December 12, 2017, 11:38:25 PM
Over course of multiple tweets that I can’t link to, Bill Mitchell has suggested that voter fraud is responsible for Jones’s victory. I expect to hear this quite a bit from the fringe right over the next few months


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on December 12, 2017, 11:38:29 PM
Count is Finished - 100% of Precincts in.

Jones - 670,551 49.9%

Moore - 649,240 48.4%

Write Ins - 22,777 1.7%

21K Margin, 1.5% gap. Probably too high to steal without a heavily concentrated effort. Moore however is not conceding and believes in a recount.

Juuuust enough write-ins to stick out above Jones' margin.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 11:38:40 PM
Count is Finished - 100% of Precincts in.

Jones - 670,551 49.9%

Moore - 649,240 48.4%

Write Ins - 22,777 1.7%

21K Margin. Probably too high to steal without a heavily concentrated effort. Moore however is not conceding and believes in a recount.

I'm hoping after provisionals and the like, Jones will pick up the 1500 some votes to win an outright majority. :)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 12, 2017, 11:39:14 PM
From CNN

A source close to the White House says tonight's result is "devastating for the President."

"This is an earthquake," the source said. "It's Virginia but on steroids."

This source put some of the blame on Steve Bannon. "The President has egg on his face," because of Bannon, the source added.

Bannon told Trump if Moore lost, Democrats would feel emboldened to go after the President on sexual harassment issues, this source who is familiar with Bannon's pleas to Trump explained.

"That's why Trump had to do this," the source continued.

"The President invested his political capital and it blew up in his face," the source added

A separate source who advises the White House said "this is bad."

"The RNC and White House political shop must feel uneasy about their futures," this source added.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on December 12, 2017, 11:39:19 PM
The Alabama SoS seems like such a nice guy.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on December 12, 2017, 11:39:44 PM
I didn't see any basis for a recount when it looked like Jones won by 10,000 yet alone 20,000+.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on December 12, 2017, 11:39:48 PM
Moore not conceding continues to show how rotten he is.

Trump would have done the same thing last November if Hillary had won PA, MI and WI by his margins. He would probably still be insisting it was stolen.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:40:05 PM
The Republicans railed Hillary for asking for a recount in Wisconsin and now they support a hopeless recount?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: junior chįmp on December 12, 2017, 11:40:08 PM
Rapin' Roy told us before the election that God would choose the winner lol


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Ye We Can on December 12, 2017, 11:40:14 PM
Recount baby. ;) Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

The cuck returns to grace us with his terrible opinions


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Illiniwek on December 12, 2017, 11:40:34 PM

100%


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:40:54 PM

I feel bad for him. He stated at the beginning he is not comfortable meeting with Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on December 12, 2017, 11:41:37 PM
Quote
This isn't going to a recount and it's not going to change. You lost, period.

SOP with the Dim's tactics.

When is Franken going to resign?

We're gonna do a recount and keep counting. Just like you guys did to Coleman.

It sure sucks to be you tonight doesn't it?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on December 12, 2017, 11:41:49 PM
how will provisionals go? not that it will change anything


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:42:05 PM
SoS says he expects Jones to be the next senator and Moore overturning results with recount would be unlikely.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on December 12, 2017, 11:42:18 PM
I think I remember Ben Kenobi insisting Santorum would win the ID primary in 2012, completely discounting the Romney/Mormon factor.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: DrScholl on December 12, 2017, 11:43:43 PM
Quote
This isn't going to a recount and it's not going to change. You lost, period.

SOP with the Dim's tactics.

When is Franken going to resign?

We're gonna do a recount and keep counting. Just like you guys did to Coleman.
It's over. Just stop.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on December 12, 2017, 11:44:09 PM
Doug Jones won fair and square. No recount needed. Whether Roy Moore concedes or not, Doug Jones has been selected by the people. End of story.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 11:44:09 PM
Quote
This isn't going to a recount and it's not going to change. You lost, period.

SOP with the Dim's tactics.

When is Franken going to resign?

We're gonna do a recount and keep counting. Just like you guys did to Coleman.
How does it feel to be cucked?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 11:44:18 PM
Recount baby. ;) Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

You are the 4th bigger loser tonight after Moore, Trump, and Bannon, "baby". You are the statistical equivalent of a quack. You've shrunk from mere hack to outright troll.

On behalf of every likable person here, GTFO.

I second this.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 12, 2017, 11:45:05 PM
Write ins will get counted now, won't they? They're bigger than the margin between Jones and Moore.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: HisGrace on December 12, 2017, 11:45:18 PM
As happy as I am I can't shake the fact that half of the state voted for a man who had considerable evidence showing that he was predatory against underage women all because he had an R next to his name.

Yeah, this is just a minimum threshold good thing but still a positive result.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 12, 2017, 11:45:50 PM
Moore can't legally ask for a recount if the margin is over 0.5, right?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Mike Thick on December 12, 2017, 11:46:29 PM
Quote
This isn't going to a recount and it's not going to change. You lost, period.

SOP with the Dim's tactics.

When is Franken going to resign?

We're gonna do a recount and keep counting. Just like you guys did to Coleman.

Coleman never led by anything close to what Jones is leading by


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 11:46:50 PM
Moore can't legally ask for a recount if the margin is over 0.5, right?
He can if he pays for it. He could pay for a recount even if he lost by 20 points.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on December 12, 2017, 11:46:59 PM
Moore can't legally ask for a recount if the margin is over 0.5, right?
if under 0.5, it is automatic


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on December 12, 2017, 11:47:12 PM
I don't believe I've ever been so happy to have been wrong about politics.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: emailking on December 12, 2017, 11:47:22 PM
As happy as I am I can't shake the fact that half of the state voted for a man who had considerable evidence showing that he was predatory against underage women all because he had an R next to his name.

Yeah, this is just a minimum threshold good thing but still a positive result.

I thought write in had to have won or be within recount territory of winning to get counted. You're not supposed to write in someone that's on the ballot.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on December 12, 2017, 11:47:36 PM
Moore can't legally ask for a recount if the margin is over 0.5, right?
He can if he pays for it. He could pay for a recount even if he lost by 20 points.
does he have the cash?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 11:47:51 PM
Quote
I don't think the fix is as simple as changing the value of your bounds.

It's just the maths. Bigger numbers just don't shift around as much. You can clearly see the difference between my bounds and the NYT bounds. My bounds were *much* closer to the final results than the NYT predictions at that point in the race. It wasn't until an hour later that I predicted he'd be held under 50 percent.

Quote
 The obvious problem with your model is that it doesn't account for where votes have been counted and where they remain.  

That's the reason for the bounds. My model went 49/50 for presidential races, it got Wisconsin, Michigan and VA right but missed on Pennsylvania due to Hillary being up so high early on the race and the votes for Trump catching up.

The bounds are supposed to account for the expected swings. It doesn't do great in close races within recount territory. What my model was trying to predict was whether Moore's gap in votes was sufficient to carry him through 100 percent of the electorate. Doing that at 43% is difficult. Was close, missed by a bit though.

Quote
In this case, Moore's best areas finished first, leaving the big Jones areas for the end.  This kind of distribution in vote counting is naturally prone to huge swings.

The swings were *very* exceptional. At the 70 percent mark Moore was 7% up. At the 81% mark, Moore was up by a percent. That means that of that bundle from 70-81 percent, that it was almost 80, 90 percent Jones.

That's pretty much unheard of. Never seen that before. I was saying that the NYT was crazy sauce and that Jones would be held under 50 percent. Both were true.

Basically if I refine the bounds, it should contain even that massive swing. I kept running the numbers, had no idea why the NYT was predicting Jones +10. It made no sense with Moore being up 7 even at that point.

The big assuming that the NYT is relying on is that the composition of early voters = later voters. This is GIGO early on, because the swings for the small numbers will be swingy and exaggerated later on. It's why my numbers were way smaller at the 10% margins. The NYT model is basically useless for most of the race, but it did get it right in the end. Mine was better early on and came close to getting the final result right.

Perhaps it's e/x. That will be interesting to try. I'll try running the new bounds and say what it says.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on December 12, 2017, 11:48:59 PM
Quote
This isn't going to a recount and it's not going to change. You lost, period.

SOP with the Dim's tactics.

When is Franken going to resign?

We're gonna do a recount and keep counting. Just like you guys did to Coleman.

Coleman never led by anything close to what Jones is leading by

Maybe Big Luther can hold a seat he wasn't elected to for a few more weeks, but that's about all a recount could accomplish.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Kamala on December 12, 2017, 11:49:30 PM
()



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on December 12, 2017, 11:49:38 PM
Moore just said God is in control.  Well God just said Bye Bye!

The Moore crowd was singing hymns.  Sacreligous. My wife is so mad she is spitting nails.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on December 12, 2017, 11:50:00 PM
Quote
This isn't going to a recount and it's not going to change. You lost, period.

SOP with the Dim's tactics.

When is Franken going to resign?

We're gonna do a recount and keep counting. Just like you guys did to Coleman.
Wow. This is one of the most pathetic responses of the night. Have some dignity.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 11:50:15 PM
Recount baby. ;) Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

The cuck returns to grace us with his terrible opinions

OMG.
He is back for "more" humiliation.
See his new post, five comments above this one.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 12, 2017, 11:50:15 PM
The Alabama SoS looked so done in the interview.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 12, 2017, 11:50:15 PM
Moore can't legally ask for a recount if the margin is over 0.5, right?
He can if he pays for it. He could pay for a recount even if he lost by 20 points.
does he have the cash?

I can't possibly imagine.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 11:50:25 PM
Quote
You are the 4th bigger loser tonight after Moore, Trump, and Bannon, "baby". You are the statistical equivalent of a quack. You've shrunk from mere hack to outright troll.

I'm the quack? LOL.

NYT had the race at 10% Jones at one point. Yeah, sure I missed. But we're in recount territory. I did predict Jones under 50 percent well early.

So obviously I was close. Just gotta tweak a few things.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 12, 2017, 11:51:09 PM
Recount baby. ;) Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

You are the 4th bigger loser tonight after Moore, Trump, and Bannon, "baby". You are the statistical equivalent of a quack. You've shrunk from mere hack to outright troll.

On behalf of every likable person here, GTFO.
amen f@ck off ben Kenobi


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 11:51:36 PM
Quote
Wow. This is one of the most pathetic responses of the night. Have some dignity.

We'll see what the numbers say when all the ballots are counted. That is what you guys said about Coleman, right? ;)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 12, 2017, 11:51:51 PM
This feels justified in a way with Franken (and other House members) resigning and Moore losing.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: AtorBoltox on December 12, 2017, 11:52:02 PM
Quote
I don't think the fix is as simple as changing the value of your bounds.

It's just the maths. Bigger numbers just don't shift around as much. You can clearly see the difference between my bounds and the NYT bounds. My bounds were *much* closer to the final results than the NYT predictions at that point in the race. It wasn't until an hour later that I predicted he'd be held under 50 percent.

Quote
 The obvious problem with your model is that it doesn't account for where votes have been counted and where they remain.  

That's the reason for the bounds. My model went 49/50 for presidential races, it got Wisconsin, Michigan and VA right but missed on Pennsylvania due to Hillary being up so high early on the race and the votes for Trump catching up.

The bounds are supposed to account for the expected swings. It doesn't do great in close races within recount territory. What my model was trying to predict was whether Moore's gap in votes was sufficient to carry him through 100 percent of the electorate. Doing that at 43% is difficult. Was close, missed by a bit though.

Quote
In this case, Moore's best areas finished first, leaving the big Jones areas for the end.  This kind of distribution in vote counting is naturally prone to huge swings.

The swings were *very* exceptional. At the 70 percent mark Moore was 7% up. At the 81% mark, Moore was up by a percent. That means that of that bundle from 70-81 percent, that it was almost 80, 90 percent Jones.

That's pretty much unheard of. Never seen that before. I was saying that the NYT was crazy sauce and that Jones would be held under 50 percent. Both were true.

Basically if I refine the bounds, it should contain even that massive swing. I kept running the numbers, had no idea why the NYT was predicting Jones +10. It made no sense with Moore being up 7 even at that point.

The big assuming that the NYT is relying on is that the composition of early voters = later voters. This is GIGO early on, because the swings for the small numbers will be swingy and exaggerated later on. It's why my numbers were way smaller at the 10% margins. The NYT model is basically useless for most of the race, but it did get it right in the end. Mine was better early on and came close to getting the final result right.

Perhaps it's e/x. That will be interesting to try. I'll try running the new bounds and say what it says.
Dude just give up. You pulled your 'model' out of your arse


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Sumner 1868 on December 12, 2017, 11:52:12 PM
Moore can't legally ask for a recount if the margin is over 0.5, right?
He can if he pays for it. He could pay for a recount even if he lost by 20 points.
does he have the cash?

He can get it rather easily. Evangelicals love donating.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Comrade Funk on December 12, 2017, 11:52:18 PM
()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Dr. Arch on December 12, 2017, 11:52:23 PM
Quote
You are the 4th bigger loser tonight after Moore, Trump, and Bannon, "baby". You are the statistical equivalent of a quack. You've shrunk from mere hack to outright troll.

I'm the quack? LOL.

NYT had the race at 10% Jones at one point. Yeah, sure I missed. But we're in recount territory. I did predict Jones under 50 percent well early.

So obviously I was close. Just gotta tweak a few things.

Not-In-Recount-Territory


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on December 12, 2017, 11:52:45 PM
Quote
Wow. This is one of the most pathetic responses of the night. Have some dignity.

We'll see what the numbers say when all the ballots are counted. That is what you guys said about Coleman, right? ;)
Coleman led by 300 ballots. Even in 2002, Siegelman was only down by 3k ballots. It’s over.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on December 12, 2017, 11:53:08 PM
Quote
Wow. This is one of the most pathetic responses of the night. Have some dignity.

We'll see what the numbers say when all the ballots are counted. That is what you guys said about Coleman, right? ;)
COLEMAN WAS NEVER UP BY 20,000 VOTES YOU MORON


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 11:53:26 PM

LOL.
Kenobi just died.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: IceAgeComing on December 12, 2017, 11:53:43 PM
all the votes have been counted though - bar military votes and provisionals.  I'd be shocked if that (especially the latter considering that they tend to be Democrat) somehow gives Moore 7,000 votes - or indeed enough to get into recount range (0.5% for a free one, currently 1.5%).


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 11:55:28 PM
Quote
Dude just give up. You pulled your 'model' out of your arse

Why would I do that? It's fun to test these things and hammer them out. I'll give 3/x a try and see how that goes.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: DrScholl on December 12, 2017, 11:55:47 PM
Quote
You are the 4th bigger loser tonight after Moore, Trump, and Bannon, "baby". You are the statistical equivalent of a quack. You've shrunk from mere hack to outright troll.

I'm the quack? LOL.

NYT had the race at 10% Jones at one point. Yeah, sure I missed. But we're in recount territory. I did predict Jones under 50 percent well early.

So obviously I was close. Just gotta tweak a few things.

20k votes is not recount territory.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: ProudModerate2 on December 12, 2017, 11:55:51 PM


Good night you guys !
What a fantastic outcome.
I leave you with the image above. Tomorrow is a new day.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: here2view on December 12, 2017, 11:56:10 PM
Roy Moore is hedging on the Electoral College to push him into the Senate.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 12, 2017, 11:57:00 PM
Quote
all the votes have been counted though - bar military votes and provisionals.  I'd be shocked if that (especially the latter considering that they tend to be Democrat) somehow gives Moore 7,000 votes - or indeed enough to get into recount range (0.5% for a free one, currently 1.5%).

We'll count 'em all. I love how counting them all is somehow undignified, but wasn't for Franken.

Also, when is Franken resigning? Since I seem to hear that he was gonna do that sometime.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 12, 2017, 11:58:10 PM
Lol, recount with any significant results my arse! Reminds me of the bad old days of the Jill Stein and Hillary recounts, lol, good luck, Yall will need more than luck to pull it off.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on December 12, 2017, 11:58:37 PM
Quote
We'll count 'em all. I love how counting them all is somehow undignified, but wasn't for Franken.

Nah.

Jones is over the threshold.

It is over, you lost.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Koharu on December 12, 2017, 11:59:16 PM
Y'all, just put him on ignore and be done with it. Ezpz.

So happy for Jones and the people of Alabama.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Kamala on December 13, 2017, 12:00:21 AM
Jones would make a fine Attorney General.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 13, 2017, 12:00:40 AM
Quote
Jones is over the threshold.

It is over, you lost.

Provisionals + military ballots. We'll see how they turn out.

Count every ballot, amiright. ;)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Alaska2392 on December 13, 2017, 12:02:22 AM
Love all the people answering the "who will win?" poll after all the results are in.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Koharu on December 13, 2017, 12:02:22 AM
I am a white woman from Alabama and I am deeply shocked, I stayed at home because I could not vote for Moore, but it hurts my heart that a Democrat wins the state, it really is a nightmare.

It's the first time I've felt so bad

May I ask why it is a nightmare? If you couldn't for for Moore, what other outcome were you hoping for?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: emailking on December 13, 2017, 12:02:53 AM
Quote
Jones is over the threshold.

It is over, you lost.

Provisionals + military ballots. We'll see how they turn out.

Count every ballot, amiright. ;)

Count 'em yeah. Just not very likely they're gonna get it to the threshold.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on December 13, 2017, 12:03:12 AM
CNN says Jones won't take office until January.

I thought special election winners took office immediately?

The election results won't be certified until January 3.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 13, 2017, 12:03:56 AM
Moore can't legally ask for a recount if the margin is over 0.5, right?
He can if he pays for it. He could pay for a recount even if he lost by 20 points.
does he have the cash?

His legion of gullibles will fork it up to prevent brimstone, damnation, hellfire, and multiculturalist Democrats.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on December 13, 2017, 12:04:05 AM
Quote
Jones is over the threshold.

It is over, you lost.

Provisionals + military ballots. We'll see how they turn out.

Count every ballot, amiright. ;)
Kerry ‘04 logic won’t save you


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 13, 2017, 12:04:35 AM
Love all the people answering the "who will win?" poll after all the results are in.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 13, 2017, 12:05:04 AM
Moore just said God is in control.  Well God just said Bye Bye!

The Moore crowd was singing hymns.  Sacreligous. My wife is so mad she is spitting nails.

Wish I could "like" this post. A lot. :)


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Ye We Can on December 13, 2017, 12:05:07 AM
I am a white woman from Alabama and I am deeply shocked, I stayed at home because I could not vote for Moore, but it hurts my heart that a Democrat wins the state, it really is a nightmare.

It's the first time I've felt so bad

Uh oh a standard member of the other party won an election over an open pedophile!

Cry me a river


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on December 13, 2017, 12:05:53 AM

shhhh spoilers


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on December 13, 2017, 12:05:58 AM
I am so proud of/for my state!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 13, 2017, 12:06:32 AM
Quote
Kerry ‘04 logic won’t save you

I was thinking more of Gore, or Hillary and how the election was 'stolen' LOL.

Funny how the shoe is different on the other side.

It's not like this was a blowout election. We'll see what comes of it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 13, 2017, 12:07:10 AM

And we are all so proud of you!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Koharu on December 13, 2017, 12:07:50 AM
I am a white woman from Alabama and I am deeply shocked, I stayed at home because I could not vote for Moore, but it hurts my heart that a Democrat wins the state, it really is a nightmare.

It's the first time I've felt so bad

May I ask why it is a nightmare? If you couldn't for for Moore, what other outcome were you hoping for?

I thought it was a safe race no matter what my vote, I really hope this comes to court

If you couldn't vote for him, why would you think others wouldn't feel the same way? And if you couldn't bring yourself to vote for him, why in the world would you want him representing you?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 13, 2017, 12:08:00 AM
Quote
Uh oh a standard member of the other party won an election over an open pedophile!

Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Kamala on December 13, 2017, 12:08:10 AM
Did Jones win any CD other than Sewell's?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 13, 2017, 12:08:16 AM
Quote
You are the 4th bigger loser tonight after Moore, Trump, and Bannon, "baby". You are the statistical equivalent of a quack. You've shrunk from mere hack to outright troll.

I'm the quack? LOL.

NYT had the race at 10% Jones at one point. Yeah, sure I missed. But we're in recount territory. I did predict Jones under 50 percent well early.

So obviously I was close. Just gotta tweak a few things.

Please, child. They also had him as low as .2% as well. They switched their voting scale based on returns, but almost always had Jones winning. You "called Moore winning' with most of the vote out based on your "formula".

Seriously, you've been a complete dick tonight in every single post. This isn't an issue of politics, just playing nice. Hell, even Naso has shown some class here.

So to repeat, until you learn how to talk with grown-ups, GTFO.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Edu on December 13, 2017, 12:08:30 AM
Reading that dipsh**t Ben Kenobi complain is glorious. I wish this stupid forum had comedy like that more often.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Ye We Can on December 13, 2017, 12:08:45 AM

Same. I have my disagreements with you, but I am glad you turned out to have integrity.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 13, 2017, 12:09:40 AM

I'm 49.9% so as well. ;D


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on December 13, 2017, 12:10:01 AM
Quote
Kerry ‘04 logic won’t save you

I was thinking more of Gore, or Hillary and how the election was 'stolen' LOL.

Funny how the shoe is different on the other side.

It's not like this was a blowout election. We'll see what comes of it.

Your tears are delicious


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 13, 2017, 12:10:41 AM
Quote
Uh oh a standard member of the other party won an election over an open pedophile!

Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.


Sexually assaulting teenage girls isn't "dark forces"?

You need a date, but I suspect you would only get one "Roy Moore style".


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: fluffypanther19 on December 13, 2017, 12:11:16 AM
I am a white woman from Alabama and I am deeply shocked, I stayed at home because I could not vote for Moore, but it hurts my heart that a Democrat wins the state, it really is a nightmare.

It's the first time I've felt so bad

May I ask why it is a nightmare? If you couldn't for for Moore, what other outcome were you hoping for?

I thought it was a safe race no matter what my vote, I really hope this comes to court
lmao. you will be fine. Doug jones will be a fine senator


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 13, 2017, 12:11:43 AM
Just a little tidbit I made:

()

Quite a few flips in both directions.  


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 13, 2017, 12:12:05 AM
I am a white woman from Alabama and I am deeply shocked, I stayed at home because I could not vote for Moore, but it hurts my heart that a Democrat wins the state, it really is a nightmare.

It's the first time I've felt so bad

May I ask why it is a nightmare? If you couldn't for for Moore, what other outcome were you hoping for?

I thought it was a safe race no matter what my vote, I really hope this comes to court

Obvious troll is obvious.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Ye We Can on December 13, 2017, 12:12:34 AM
Quote
Uh oh a standard member of the other party won an election over an open pedophile!

Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.


You know it buddy.  Don't worry though, Im sure Ted Cruz will pull it through by a few points, despite his continuing slide into irrelevancy.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 13, 2017, 12:13:01 AM
Did Jones win any CD other than Sewell's?

He'd almost have to have, right?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Koharu on December 13, 2017, 12:14:16 AM
Quote
Uh oh a standard member of the other party won an election over an open pedophile!

Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.


Sexually assaulting teenage girls isn't "dark forces"?

You need a date, but I suspect you would only get one "Roy Moore style".

Okay, please don't say stuff like this. Going on a date or having sex doesn't make one mature, and implying that it does is disgusting. As much as I dislike what Ben has posted here tonight, implying that he is inappropriate with women (and/or girls) is also just wrong. If you want people to grow up, be the change you'd like to see, please.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 13, 2017, 12:14:29 AM
Quote
Please, child. They also had him as low as .2% as well. They switched their voting scale based on returns, but almost always had Jones winning. You "called Moore winning' with most of the vote out based on your "formula".

They had Jones winning by 10% at the same time. What kind of model is that? Mine had a slight Moore lead, but a lead nonetheless and got gradually more confident as time went on.

Quote
Seriously, you've been a complete dick tonight in every single post. This isn't an issue of politics, just playing nice. Hell, even Naso has shown some class here.

Christ. Every other post in the hour before the election was 'pedophile'. You want class? Clean up your own cesspit. Also you had Extreme, me and classic as 'pedophiles' for standing up for Moore.

Whatever you say, Sir One-Note.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on December 13, 2017, 12:15:20 AM
No, but thanks for asking.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on December 13, 2017, 12:16:19 AM
As happy as I am I can't shake the fact that half of the state voted for a man who had considerable evidence showing that he was predatory against underage women all because he had an R next to his name.

Yeah, this is just a minimum threshold good thing but still a positive result.

I thought write in had to have won or be within recount territory of winning to get counted. You're not supposed to write in someone that's on the ballot.

Yet people do, so in theory Moore might have gotten all those votes.  More likely, there will be a few Doug Jones votes from people who wanted Moore to lose but weren't willing to mark the Democratic box.  Might even be enuf to give Jones a majority win instead of just a plurality.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: IceAgeComing on December 13, 2017, 12:16:41 AM
The problem that the NYT model had this time that it didn't in Virginia is there they had access to Precinct level data for both past elections and this election which meant that they could do a like-for-like comparison with the data and therefore it meant that they had a much better idea what the outcome would be earlier.  Here they didn't have that so they were comparing a complete data set with incomplete data and having to make assumptions based on the data that they had which is always going to be dodgy.  I think that it did a good job though; by the time we began to get a significant amount of data in it settled at a Jones lead and while that did move around a lot and gradually fell it settled at being roughly in the right range - it spent lots of time around 2% and it ended up at 1.5% which is pretty good.  Certainly better than whatever pseudoscientific rubbish Kenobi came up with; perhaps he ought to go back to sending people creepy PMs rather than the political analysis gig.  One other thing: the NYT is saying that over 98% of votes have been counted - using that 98% figure would mean 26,000 votes out there waiting to be counted and Moore would need 21,000 of them to overturn the result.  That would be, err, pretty impressive.

Any idea that this is going to get anywhere near a recount is actually pretty laughable.  You've got two main sources of votes left: Military ballots (unlikely to be that many, and I don't think that they'll be particularly strong to Moore) and Provisional votes (which tend to be pretty strongly Democratic) and he needs to find 5,000 votes in order to get an automatic recount which seems hard.  Mr Moore is more than willing to waste money on a recount if he wishes since above 0.5% the candidate has to pay - but I think that after this result he'll find it very hard to raise the money required since, I mean, who's going to waste significant amounts of money on a recount with like a 0.01% chance at best of changing the outcome and I don't think that he's got $2 million left to drop on it himself.  

Maybe this is the fact that I'm posting this at 5am but I think this'll work out like Clinton: a candidate that was 100% sure that they were going to win losing narrowly beginning to talk about recounts and whatever the night of and refusing to concede; and then after a good nights sleep and talking to some people a realisation might come that running this longer might cause more problems than conceding it will and then he'll decide to bow out gracefully.  Especially considering that the Secretary of State didn't seem overly excited about going down the recount route; and with these results that seems fair enough.  I will say one positive thing about Moore: at least he went and spoke to his supporters: sure it was a rambling mess that said nothing but at least it was something.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 13, 2017, 12:17:12 AM
Quote
Sexually assaulting teenage girls isn't "dark forces"?

You need a date, but I suspect you would only get one "Roy Moore style".

LOL stay classy, San Diego.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Illiniwek on December 13, 2017, 12:17:37 AM
I really hope you do not make fun of my opinion.

Well, you came to the wrong place.

EDIT:
Lol and just like that, she's gone.

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 13, 2017, 12:17:57 AM
Quote
Please, child. They also had him as low as .2% as well. They switched their voting scale based on returns, but almost always had Jones winning. You "called Moore winning' with most of the vote out based on your "formula".

They had Jones winning by 10% at the same time. What kind of model is that? Mine had a slight Moore lead, but a lead nonetheless and got gradually more confident as time went on.

Quote
Seriously, you've been a complete dick tonight in every single post. This isn't an issue of politics, just playing nice. Hell, even Naso has shown some class here.

Christ. Every other post in the hour before the election was 'pedophile'. You want class? Clean up your own cesspit. Also you had Extreme, me and classic as 'pedophiles' for standing up for Moore.

Whatever you say, Sir One-Note.

I mean...you three were supporting a child molester.  That doesn't make you pedophiles, but it does make you bad people who were willing to be apologists for a child molester.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Illiniwek on December 13, 2017, 12:18:37 AM

A sincere congratulations and tip of the cap to you sir!


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 13, 2017, 12:20:49 AM
Looks like Jones narrowly carried AL-02 and narrowly lost AL-01.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Fubart Solman on December 13, 2017, 12:21:30 AM
Hit the road Roy don't cha come back
No Moore no Moore no Moore no Moore
Hit the road Roy and don't cha come back
No Moore


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 13, 2017, 12:21:50 AM
Quote
Uh oh a standard member of the other party won an election over an open pedophile!

Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.


Sexually assaulting teenage girls isn't "dark forces"?

You need a date, but I suspect you would only get one "Roy Moore style".

Okay, please don't say stuff like this. Going on a date or having sex doesn't make one mature, and implying that it does is disgusting. As much as I dislike what Ben has posted here tonight, implying that he is inappropriate with women (and/or girls) is also just wrong. If you want people to grow up, be the change you'd like to see, please.

Sorry, no. I'm not going to coddle people who excuse their support for a serial boderline pedophile and sexual assaulter in jaunty "bro" language. The world has gotten too damn crazy, and people who follow that route need to be taught--harshly if needed--that such views are grossly and contemptibly outside ALL norms, political or otherwise. 


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: junior chįmp on December 13, 2017, 12:21:58 AM
Wew lads...black people saved the day:

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 13, 2017, 12:22:55 AM
Quote
Please, child. They also had him as low as .2% as well. They switched their voting scale based on returns, but almost always had Jones winning. You "called Moore winning' with most of the vote out based on your "formula".

They had Jones winning by 10% at the same time. What kind of model is that? Mine had a slight Moore lead, but a lead nonetheless and got gradually more confident as time went on.

Quote
Seriously, you've been a complete dick tonight in every single post. This isn't an issue of politics, just playing nice. Hell, even Naso has shown some class here.

Christ. Every other post in the hour before the election was 'pedophile'. You want class? Clean up your own cesspit. Also you had Extreme, me and classic as 'pedophiles' for standing up for Moore.

Whatever you say, Sir One-Note.

So proclaims Queen Broken Record.

GTFO.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Koharu on December 13, 2017, 12:23:26 AM

Maybe this is the fact that I'm posting this at 5am but I think this'll work out like Clinton: a candidate that was 100% sure that they were going to win losing narrowly beginning to talk about recounts and whatever the night of and refusing to concede; and then after a good nights sleep and talking to some people a realisation might come that running this longer might cause more problems than conceding it will and then he'll decide to bow out gracefully.  Especially considering that the Secretary of State didn't seem overly excited about going down the recount route; and with these results that seems fair enough.

Normally I would agree with this, but I am wondering if Trump is telling him to wait before conceding, because his (Trump)'s reputation could take even more damage from Moore's loss. So not only does he have his own feelings to deal with, but an angry, yelling president telling him not to concede?


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 13, 2017, 12:23:36 AM
Quote
by the time we began to get a significant amount of data in it settled at a Jones lead and while that did move around a lot and gradually fell it settled at being roughly in the right range - it spent lots of time around 2% and it ended up at 1.5% which is pretty good.

If you look at the difference through the evening, their call at one point was +10 Jones, when there was nothing to indicate that. It's no big deal when there's under 10% in, but at that point we were about 30-40 percent in. Way off.

Also, it wasn't until at 90+ that they were within 2%. Their prediction kept getting peeled down, peeled down, peeled down. It was almost as was predicted that it would come all the way back. That's not a sign of a good model, that's the sign of data aggregation.

 That's not a great 'predictor'. Mine was within 2% at about the 20% mark. Had Moore up a bit, but nothing over 1% until I made the call at about 1.3% advantage of Moore over the swing.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Koharu on December 13, 2017, 12:25:31 AM
Quote
Uh oh a standard member of the other party won an election over an open pedophile!

Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.


Sexually assaulting teenage girls isn't "dark forces"?

You need a date, but I suspect you would only get one "Roy Moore style".

Okay, please don't say stuff like this. Going on a date or having sex doesn't make one mature, and implying that it does is disgusting. As much as I dislike what Ben has posted here tonight, implying that he is inappropriate with women (and/or girls) is also just wrong. If you want people to grow up, be the change you'd like to see, please.

Sorry, no. I'm not going to coddle people who excuse their support for a serial boderline pedophile and sexual assaulter in jaunty "bro" language. The world has gotten too damn crazy, and people who follow that route need to be taught--harshly if needed--that such views are grossly and contemptibly outside ALL norms, political or otherwise. 

This isn't about coddling. It's that your statements are inappropriate, as well. If you want to chew him out, by all means, do so. But don't try to make sex and dating the definition of maturity, because that's sexist and disgusting.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 13, 2017, 12:26:19 AM
Looks like Jones narrowly carried AL-02 and narrowly lost AL-01.

And seemingly only lost Mo Brook's district -- AL-05--by a hair.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Former Kentuckian on December 13, 2017, 12:28:02 AM

This can't be said enough


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 13, 2017, 12:28:12 AM
Quote
Sorry, no. I'm not going to coddle people who excuse their support for a serial boderline pedophile and sexual assaulter in jaunty "bro" language. The world has gotten too damn crazy, and people who follow that route need to be taught--harshly if needed--that such views are grossly and contemptibly outside ALL norms, political or otherwise.

I find it interesting that the lesson learned here is that branding everyone to whom you have a political disagreement as pedophile is an effective tactic.

If that's the lesson that democrats take from this election, it's going to be an interesting 2018. Sure. Believe that. Believe that the way to fix America is to crusade against the wrongdoers. But look at the numbers.

Eighty-five percent of Republicans believed that the lies were in fact lies. Do you think that's going to provoke more republicans who come from the side that Democrats can be reasoned with? Or are you more likely to harden the opinion of the republicans?

Choose carefully which path you want to tread.  


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: King Lear on December 13, 2017, 12:28:24 AM
I’m realy happy to be wrong on this one.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: smoltchanov on December 13, 2017, 12:28:55 AM
Well, excellent result. I didn't even hoped for that (my prediction was rather narrow Moore win), but VERY glad.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: nclib on December 13, 2017, 12:29:55 AM
Great win for Jones. I was thinking Moore would win because of how Dems have often underperformed polls, but I am so happy to be wrong. The map is exactly the same as the 2012 Chief Justice referendum except with Jones also picking up Talladega and Lee.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=1&year=2012&f=0&off=50&elect=0


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Kamala on December 13, 2017, 12:30:05 AM
Believe that the way to fix America is to crusade against the wrongdoers.

()


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Sestak on December 13, 2017, 12:31:07 AM
I'm back...

AND HE FREAKING DID IT!!

DOUG JONES, SENATOR-ELECT FROM ALABAMA.



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Koharu on December 13, 2017, 12:31:37 AM

Someone asked earlierif it was actually the amendments statement that did Moore in, and I wonder that, too. I'm so thankful that these folks turned out, because their votes were what did it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: BuckeyeNut on December 13, 2017, 12:32:00 AM
Quote
Sorry, no. I'm not going to coddle people who excuse their support for a serial boderline pedophile and sexual assaulter in jaunty "bro" language. The world has gotten too damn crazy, and people who follow that route need to be taught--harshly if needed--that such views are grossly and contemptibly outside ALL norms, political or otherwise.

I find it interesting that the lesson learned here is that branding everyone to whom you have a political disagreement as pedophile is an effective tactic.

If that's the lesson that democrats take from this election, it's going to be an interesting 2018. Sure. Believe that. Believe that the way to fix America is to crusade against the wrongdoers. But look at the numbers.

Eighty-five percent of Republicans believed that the lies were in fact lies. Do you think that's going to provoke more republicans who come from the side that Democrats can be reasoned with? Or are you more likely to harden the opinion of the republicans?

Choose carefully which path you want to tread.  

Badger is only calling Moore a pedo, you dolt. He's calling you an apologist.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on December 13, 2017, 12:32:12 AM
Quote
I mean...you three were supporting a child molester.  That doesn't make you pedophiles, but it does make you bad people who were willing to be apologists for a child molester.

There was an old fairy tale about the boy who cried wolf. What happened when people tuned him out?

You spent 14-1 advantage to defeat a republican in a special senate election. And it came down to recounts.

Does that suggest that there's an overwhelming, euhm, upwelling of support? I don't see that. I also wonder what happens when the spending is 1:1. ;)



Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on December 13, 2017, 12:33:17 AM
https://mobile.twitter.com/JordanUhl/status/940812997831938050


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Badger on December 13, 2017, 12:33:36 AM
Quote
Uh oh a standard member of the other party won an election over an open pedophile!

Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.


Sexually assaulting teenage girls isn't "dark forces"?

You need a date, but I suspect you would only get one "Roy Moore style".

Okay, please don't say stuff like this. Going on a date or having sex doesn't make one mature, and implying that it does is disgusting. As much as I dislike what Ben has posted here tonight, implying that he is inappropriate with women (and/or girls) is also just wrong. If you want people to grow up, be the change you'd like to see, please.

Sorry, no. I'm not going to coddle people who excuse their support for a serial boderline pedophile and sexual assaulter in jaunty "bro" language. The world has gotten too damn crazy, and people who follow that route need to be taught--harshly if needed--that such views are grossly and contemptibly outside ALL norms, political or otherwise. 

This isn't about coddling. It's that your statements are inappropriate, as well. If you want to chew him out, by all means, do so. But don't try to make sex and dating the definition of maturity, because that's sexist and disgusting.

It was a twist on saying he needs laid, which I wholeheartedly stand by. The reference to "date" instead of sex played into the imagery of his buffoonishly thug-like champion endlessly trying to date high school teenagers while in his 30's.

You don't have to look to hard to find this chewing out to be devoid of sexism. Men who defend such behavior in others, let alone normalize it, are vastly more likely to engage in such activities.

So again, Ben probably needs sex as a more productive and humanizing outlet (though couldn't we all? :P), but the way he minimizes and normalizes sexual assault of young girls is scarily indicative he'd use any opportunities to engage in such behavior himself.

There. I said it.


Title: Re: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
Post by: Virginiá on December 13, 2017, 01:15:58 AM
New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279603.0