Talk Elections

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/12/15/new-poll-has-bill-schuette-up-3-points-over-gretchen-whitmer-2018-governors-race/956521001/

He leads 38-35? Wow! Likely R clearly (Safe R if it rains!)

Everything is fine.

Also my inner 12 year-old will never not laugh at this pollster’s name.

How does Whitmer only have 36% name recognition after being in the race for almost a year? :P

I mean her name approval getting worse is hardly a good sign lol

This will end up being a tougher contest for Dems than it ought to be, imo. In such a favorable national environment Mi should be going blue at the statewide level, but the Detroit population just keeps declining and Western Michigan keeps growing, while no one really knows any of the Democrats statewide.

Still think this is tilts D, but Dems are going to have to invest a lot more to beat Schuette with Whitmer than they ought to have to.

Wouldn't at all be surprised if Whitmer manages to throw this on a night where Evers squeaks by Walker and Graham beats Putnam in FL.

Because only Atlas posters pay attention to races a year+ in advance. :P

You really can't draw any conclusions from a poll a year before the election where both candidates are under 40%.

61% disapproval. Ayyy lmao

Whitmer is not at risk of losing at this point

Mmm, a Michigan poll with 27% undecided but the sitting president is at 61% disapproval. I can see where this will go.

Safe D

Mark Hackel or Mike Duggan would've been great candidates for Dems, the current field is underwhelming.

I think Whitmer should be able to pull it off at the end of the day due to a favorable national environment and Snyder fatigue on the local level, but I think it'll be a closer race than many are probably expecting ATM and victory shouldn't be taken for granted.

Whitmer is a remarkably underwhelming candidate. Michigan's Martha Coakley.


I don't think it's too late for him to jump in. I don't know Michigan's ballot access laws that well, but I'd have to believe that MI Dems are wanting another option. Mayor Mike has an excellent record on paper (even if Detroit's recovery is uneven) and if anyone could overcome such a late start, it's Mike Duggan.

The current field wasn't great in 2014 either, and then it turned out to be a wave...and yet an practical unknown kept Governor Snyder to 3 points or so.

This is shaping up to be like the 2002 race where Granholm won narrowly over the incumbent LG despite a decent national environment for the Dems.

I’ll predict an underwhelming win for Whitmer. She just needs a surfboard to ride the blue wave this year to beat Scheutte.

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Why is this race Safe D?

Hackel has the most upside, he'd easily carry Macomb and the election. Seems to have a ton of appeal with WWC voters too. Duggan would boost turnout in Detroit and do well in the suburbs. Whitmer is a ?? all she's done is win her safe district, never had a competitive election. I think its odd so many are lining up behind her.

So, she's a Katie McGutless then?

McGinty was even worse as she'd never won an election before. Whitmer is not a complete novice but winning a stafe district is a lot harder than winning statewide.

Its EPIC and Stabenow will help Whitmer win.

Yeah, I agree that Duggan would be a better bet. Honestly, it surprises that we haven't gotten at least one other major candidate besides Whitmer.  I'm still shocked that Kildee opted out.

I don’t know why Hackel is passing on this race. The others in the race are Abdul El-Sayed who would get killed just because of his name, and two random dudes named Shri Thanedar and Bill Cobbs. I think we’re stuck with Whitmer for better or for worse.

I think Whitmer will win, but this is a bad argument. "Peters will help Schauer win!"

Considering how unknown and underfunded he was, and how close the result turned out to be...yeah that's actually a sound argument. No, he didn't win, but that race also had no business being a nail-biter either.

Bill Schuette will win. Tossup/Tilt D, but Schuette will win by 5 points.

He will be a one-term governor though.

Kildee would win by low double digits.

Okay, how about Beebe helping Blanche win?

Michigan polls greatly underestimate the GOP. Schuette will win.

just like polls underestimated roy moore

oh wait doug jones + 1.7