Talk Elections

http://orlando-politics.com/2017/12/27/gravis-marketing-2018-florida-poll-results/

Nelson will win.

Makes more sense than Scott leading.

I mean in the end yeah probably, it is Bill Nelson after all, but is there any reason why polling has been so all over the place for this one?

Florida is a huge state and there have not been many high quality pollsters testing the race.

I don't see Nelson losing in this environment.

He probably wins like this in the end against Scott.

Nelson will be facing an extremely tough race next year against Rick Scott, at this point I’d give a slight edge to Rick Scott, however that doesn’t mean Nelson can’t squeak it out. To me this race should be a national bellwether for Democrats, if their winning it their probably holding Down republican gains in the senate while if their losing it their probably facing a wipeout.

Yeah, but The Criminal will dump tens of millions into the race. He also has statewide name recognition and decent approvals, all things Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV did not have. Mid single digits would be a decent result for Nelson.

That'd be pretty sweet since it'd make the race safe D.

2017 golden standard Gravis has spoken

Nelson was never going to lose

Meh, I'd say Likely D. Rick Scott saying No probably means someone like David Jolly jumps in, who wouldn't have much of  a chance, but you never count anything out in swing state Florida. Republicans aren't going to actually nominate Augustus Sol Invictus.

Jolly's been pretty anti-Trump, no?

FL is such a transient state its hard for any incumbent to really make an impression. How much has FL grown since Nelson was last on the ballot? Nelson seems to have to reintroduce himself to voters everytime he's up.

Nelson will win this race by double digits in the end.

Quoted for posterity

Against some random R, probably. Against Scott, mid single digits.

In 2012, Nelson won by 13% against a random Republican in a good year. 2018 might end up being a better year for Democrats.

I think that you are correct; Scott is not going to spend so much money on a Senate Race.

Even if Nelson wins, Scott could make Democrats waste resources here.

Ha ha sure Mr 'Moore by 10'.

Nelson will win because he is Bill Nelson.

Also Scott got a massive boost from his administrations dealings with the summer Hurricanes. While that boost still lingers - this poll gives him 70% approval on his efforts, it has slightly worn off.

Jolly will never win a Republican primary.

His predictions are only slightly less absurd than LimoLIberal's.

Yeah, I agree with everyone that says with Nelson it's probably somewhere between Lean D and Tilt D. Without Scott, honestly it's Likely D.

Scott wins by 1% in Republican wave years, so of course he's going to trounce Nelson in a Democratic wave year if he's stupid enough to run, amirite?

I wouldn't say waste, it is a swing state.

Nelson's biggest problem is his age he's the oldest incumbent in a competitive race right now. When there is a big age gap the incumbent is usually at a disadvantage.

I'd say Darren Soto is his best possible successor as of now.

I’d say Kathy Castor is also a good pick.

I like Castor too and hope she runs for higher office down the road as well, but I think Soto is the best choice. Moderate look, looks decent, represents a younger generation, puerto rican origin, reminds me of our version of Marco Rubio, I think he has a lot of potential. I like Castor too though, got no beef with her at all.

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Maybe I'm really daft, but what does this have to do with FL-SEN?

This was a poem/song written by Darren Soto (incumbent Democratic Rep for FL-9) while he was in law school, for GWU Law's satirical law review. Some view Soto as a potential successor to Nelson when he likely retires in '24 (or if he were to announce a surprise retirement this year), and this could maybe get in his way given the current climate around sexual misconduct.

I don't see an issue. That sh!t is lit.

Lol.

I like him even more.

I want Cardi B to cover this

Bill Nelson is 75. That's like 34 in Senate years

It's amazing that Florida still has a Democratic Senator, considering the state Leans Republican at the Presidential level (it's voted more Republican then the nation in every election since 1980) and it hasen't elected a Democratic governor since 1994. However, if Bill Nelson loses in November, then Florida will become one of many Southern states where Democrats don't hold any statewide elected offices.

Clarence William Nelson is a miracle worker.

The Florida Democratic Party is incompetent.

Gravis has actually been on point lately. At least when they decide not to herd.

I don’t remember these lyrics in "Mr. Brightside."