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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: The Lord Marbury on December 30, 2017, 07:46:23 am



Title: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on December 30, 2017, 07:46:23 am
With the new year fast approaching and bringing with it an election year for Sweden I thought that now would be as good of a time as any to start a thread for it.

It's been an eventful term to say the least, with neither of the two blocs in Swedish politics, the Red-Greens and the Alliance, having a majority in parliament. The Alliance had ran on a policy in the 2010 and 14 elections which stipulated that whichever bloc could gather the largest minority in parliament should be allowed to form government by the smaller bloc in order to lock out the far-right Sweden Democrats from power. In 2014 they had also promised to present a joint budget no matter if they lost the election as a way of showing unity. Staying true to his words, Fredrik Reinfeldt resigned as Prime Minister after the election and the Alliance parties abstained on the vote for Prime Minister in parliament afterwards, allowing Stefan Löfven to form government.

However a crisis soon emerged as the Sweden Democrats broke with parliamentary procedure during the budget vote in December. After their own shadow budget had been voted down they did not abstain on subsequent votes as is convention, but instead voted for the joint Alliance shadow budget, meaning that the budget that the Social Democratic-Green government had negotiated with the Left Party fell. With the Alliance parties refusing to re-negotiate the budget with the government, Prime Minister Löfven announced that he would call a snap election for March. However as it was only constitutionally possible to do so on the 29th of December it left some room between the announcement and when the official decision would be taken. As the parties looked at the polls, which only seemed to show the Sweden Democrats gaining and the Christian Democrats perilously close to the 4% threshold, the Alliance parties entered into quiet negotiations with the government, and on the 27th the December Agreement was presented.

The December Agreement made official the policy which the Alliance parties had ran on in the election; the largest minority of parties should be allowed to form government by the smaller bloc abstaining on the vote for Prime Minister, and also be allowed to pass its budget by the smaller bloc either abstaining or the various parties presenting separate budgets which wouldn't get more votes than the government's even together with the Sweden Democrats.

As anyone with half a brain should be able to tell, this didn't exactly endear the Alliance parties to their conservative base and only helped the Sweden Democrats in the polls as they could portray it as an establishment stitch-up and themselves as the only credible opposition party. Discontent grew during 2015, especially in the Moderates and the Christian Democrats, and the whole thing fell apart in the autumn as the Christian Democratic conference voted to leave the agreement, with Moderate leader Anna Kinberg Batra being quick to announce that if one Alliance party left the agreement it meant that all parties would do so. However even with the agreement officially gone the Alliance parties still continued to present separate shadow budgets, meaning that the government's budget could get through either way. Seemingly the only big difference after the agreement fell is that the Social Democrats are no longer bound to let an Alliance government and budget through if they get more support than the Red-Greens in the 2018 election.

After that whole mess politics have just carried on. In the wake of the 2015 refugee crisis migration policy was tightened down to the EU's minimum level, issues like law and order got increased focus, while a more prominent left-right conflict has reemerged as the Alliance parties moved rightward on issues like wages and worker's rights and the Social Democrats have moved to the left on welfare and economic issues. A leak in the Transport Agency this year lead to the resignation of two cabinet members after the Alliance threatened a vote of no confidence, however the Social Democrats could almost still be said to have come out as winners in that debacle as the Alliance made the strategic error of also calling for a confidence vote in Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist. Hultqvist only being peripherally involved with the scandal and well respected in defence circles, meant that Löfven was willing to put up a fight to keep him in the cabinet. Eventually the Alliance parties were forced to withdraw their no-confidence vote, which only made them look less competent.

A stronger economy and shrinking unemployment has also benefitted the government in the past year.


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on December 30, 2017, 07:47:04 am
Here's rundown of the parties, with the latest polling average from pollofpolls.se (http://pollofpolls.se) included. ()=change from last year.

Social Democrats: 28.7% (+1.7)
2014 result: 31.0%
Sweden's traditional "party of government" which governed the country uninterrupted between 1936 and 1976. Has been in government since 2014 together with the Greens, participating in its first coalition since 1957, after spending its longest period out of government since the intruduction of universal suffrage during the eight years Fredrik Reinfeldt was Prime Minister from 2006 to 2014. Led by former union leader Stefan Löfven since 2012, who became the party's first leader to become Prime Minister without any prior cabinet (or parliamentary) experience. After a rough initial few years in government the party has seemed to bounce back during the past year, embracing more tough-on-crime rhetoric and policy in combination with somewhat of a shift to the left on issues regarding economics and welfare. Löfven has also seen his approval numbers increase somewhat as he has become more comfortable in his role as Prime Minister, with his response to the terror attack in Stockholm this April recieving praise.

Moderate Party: 22.4% (+0.2)
2014 result: 23.3%
Part of the centre-right coalition "The Alliance" since 2004 and Sweden's main rightwing party since the late 70s, the Moderates have had a rough few years in opposition. After the departure of Fredrik Reinfeldt, electorally the most successful leader the party has ever had, the party elected parliamentary group leader Anna Kinberg Batra as his successor. However her leadership was somewhat tarnished from the outset as she had participated in the negotiations of the December Agreement. After the agreement fell the Moderates saw increased support during 2016, but the numbers had begun to stagnate again towards the end of the year. In January of 2017 Anna Kinberg Batra made a spectacular gamble by announcing that the party was breaking the cordon sanataire around the Sweden Democrats by being willing to negotiate with them in parliament. However with the Liberals and Centre Party being vehemently opposed to working with the Sweden Democrats or form a government which would be dependent on them, the announcement also exposed a big divide among the Alliance. Afterwards the support for the Moderates dropped sharply, with a great deal of voters, especially in Stockholm, turning away from the Moderates and going to the Centre Party instead. The party dropped below the Sweden Democrats and hovered around 15%, the same result as the disastrous 2002 election. Anna Kinberg Batra faced heavy criticism internally, not necessarily because of the announcement, as a great deal of her critics had pushed her in that direction in the first place, but because of her lack of charisma and poor performance in debates and interviews. Eventually she was forced out and Ulf Kristersson, former Minister for Social Security and shadow finance minister under Kinberg Batra, became the new leader. Now things seem to have calmed down and the party is pretty much back where they were a year ago in the polls.

Sweden Democrats: 17.3% (-0.2)
2014 result: 12.9%
Sweden's far-right party, founded by neo-nazis (as well as some real nazis, including a former SS officer) in the late 80s, since 2005 it has been led by Jimmie Åkesson who has tried to turn the party into a more respectable movement. They refer to themselves as a centrist party (lol) but have clearly taken a shift to the right in the past few years, especially in terms of economic policy, as the leadership position themselves as a possible partner for the Moderates. Peaked in the polls during 2015 at the height of the refugee crisis and during the whole debate surrounding the December Agreement. Have since dropped back somewhat but are still above their 2014 election result.

Centre Party: 9.5% (+0.4)
2014 result: 6.1%
Like its sister parties in Finland and Norway, the Swedish Centre Party is traditionally an agrarian party sprung out of the farmer's movement, and was even called the Farmer's League up to the late 50s. While historically seen as the party on the right that was most capable of working with the Social Democrats at times, as it did in a coalition during the 50s and in budget negotiations during the mid-90s, under current leader Annie Lööf and her predecessor Maud Olofsson the party took a sharp turn rightwards and embraced the Alliance, with factions and parts of the youth league flirting with libertarianism. It's probably the most immigration-friendly party on the right, which meant that it has attracted former Moderates, generally in the Stockholm area, disappointed with the party's rightward shift after Reinfeldt's departure, as well as former Green voters. In most polls its leader Annie Lööf is the most popular party leader, just ahead of Löfven, and during the Moderate crisis this year it got as much as 13-14% in some polls. Though that's still a far-cry from the dizzying heights of 25% which the party reached during the 70s when it was the largest party on the right and its leader Thorbjörn Fälldin served as Prime Minister.

Left Party: 7.3% (-0.4)
2014 result: 5.7%
Sweden's former communist party, which broke away from the Social Democrats in 1917. Dropped communism with the end of the cold war and has generally tried to moderate itself since then and broaden its appeal by embracing feminism and environmentalism. Has been led by Jonas Sjöstedt, part of the party's moderate wing, since 2012. Was left out of government by Stefan Löfven in 2014, much to Sjöstedt's disappointment, but even so it has proven to be a bit of a blessing, as the party has benefitted in the polls by being the only opposition party to the left of the government, while it still gets some influence by negotiating the budget with the government.

Liberals: 5.1% (-0.4)
2014 result: 5.4%
What remains of the Liberal Coalition Party which was the main opposition to the conservatives during the early 1900s and introduced universal suffrage together with the Social Democrats during the 1910s. Led by Jan Björklund since 2007, the party had a strong focus on education during its years in government, with Björklund as Education Minister being especially associated with the issue. However poor results in international comparisons for the Swedish eduction system meant that their reputation in that area was tarnished and the party got its second worst result in history in the last election. Has struggled in opposition, with difficulties finding a niche while the Centre Party has attracted a great deal of liberal-minded voters. After attempts to focus on defence issues has failed to attract new voters the party now just seems directionless, and has entered a bit of a slow decline bringing it closer and closer to the 4% threshold. The party changing it's name from the Liberal People's Party (commonly referred to as the People's Party) to the Liberals in 2015 didn't do much of a difference either. Björklund was challenged for the leadership this year by Birgitta Ohlsson, from the party's more social liberal wing, however she withdrew her candidacy and has announced her departure from politics after finding insufficient support.

Greens: 3.9% (-0.8 )
2014 result: 6.9%
Entered into government for the first time in 2014 and has not had an easy time of things. After having to give up several pledges in negotiations with the Social Democrats, including pretty much their entire liberal immigration policy, they've gotten the image of being a bit of a joke. Led by two spokespersons, Education Minister Gustav Fridolin who's had the job since 2011 and Deputy PM/Minister for International Development and Climate Isabella Lövin who was elected in 2016, who also happen to be the two least popular party leaders. Has tried to shift focus back to environmental issues in the past year, but still hover around the 4% threshold with little sign of any improvement on the horizon.

Christian Democrats: 3.0% (-0.1)
2014 result: 4.6%
The smallest member of the Alliance, seemingly in constant danger of failing to meet the threshold and falling out of parliament. Led by Ebba Busch Thor since 2015, after focusing healthcare and pensioners during the government years, the party took a shift to the right after the election and tried to find a niche between the Moderates and Sweden Democrats as a more respectably tough-on-immigration and tough-on-crime party. However that strategy failed spectacularly as the Moderates also moved rightward and there was suddenly no room left there. Has recently tried to pivot back towards healthcare but with little success coming out of it, with Ebba Busch Thor's strong focus on law and order and immigration in the past years not exactly granting her a lot of credibility there. She's also far less charismatic and popular than her predecessor Göran Hägglund. The party has pretty much been below the 4% threshold in every poll since the election.

Feminist Initiative: 1.3% (-0.7)
2014 result: 3.1%
Sweden's 9th party, which gained more prominence after a great deal of debates around gender inequality in 2013 but failed to meet the threshold in the following year's election. Founded and led by Gudrun Schyman, formerly the leader of the Left Party between 1992 and 2003, the party has carved out its own little niche as a socially liberal and left-leaning party with it's strongest support coming from younger people in larger cities. While it didn't enter the Riksdag in the last election, the party is present in several municipal assemblies, including Stockholm where its part of the governing majority together with the Social Democrats, Greens and Left.


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: jaichind on January 03, 2018, 01:28:59 pm
Is there 2014 deal to keep out SD still on?  I thought I read somewhere that M will back out of that deal after the election.  I could be totally wrong.


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: FredLindq on January 03, 2018, 02:30:32 pm
No, Decemberöverenskommelsen (DÖ i.e. In english DIE) was killed by the Christian Democrats in 2016.

However both L and C has said that they do not want to govern with the support off SD. So The Alliance (M, L, C and KD) needs to become larger than the left-green (S, MP and V) for a shift off guvernement.


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on January 03, 2018, 02:32:08 pm
Is there 2014 deal to keep out SD still on?  I thought I read somewhere that M will back out of that deal after the election.  I could be totally wrong.

If you're talking about the December Agreement (decemberöverenskommelsen), in which the government and the four Alliance parties agreed not to block the budget of a sitting minority government with the help of the Sweden Democrats, the Christian Democrats backed out of that deal followed by the Moderates and the rest of the Alliance in 2015, less than a year after the parties agreed to it. So that deal is dead and buried a long time ago.

The informal "cordon sanitaire" against the Sweden Democrats are more or less still in force, none of the other parliamentary would go into coalition with them, but the Moderates and Christian Democrats have said that they're open to cooperating with them on certain issues and in some places on the local level there have been some cooperation. Most notably in Hässleholm, a small city in   southern Sweden, the Social Democratic mayor was ousted in favour of a Moderate one in favour of the Moderates supporting a Sweden Democratic politician for Deputy Mayor.1

The Centre Party and the Liberals have been very critical of the Moderates2 move towards the Sweden Democrats which has strained the relationship between the parties a lot.

1) The Sweden Democrat resigned shortly thereafter due to scandal when it was discovered he had cheated the city out of money and was instead replaced by a Christian Democrat...

2) If you're wondering why no one has bothered to criticize the Christian Democrats, it's because no one cares about them or take them seriously.   


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on January 03, 2018, 02:43:54 pm
Three of the defectors from SD, Hanna Wigh, Pavel Gamov and Margareta Larsson are forming their own political group in parliament, in order to better manage parliamentary work and seek financial support. They probably won't run in the election and even if they did it likely wouldn't make any impact, but the most interesting thing about this is the name they chose: Sveriges partipolitiskt oberoende lista (Sweden's Non-Partisan List), with the abbreviation SVPOL, which also happens to be the hashtag for talk about Swedish politics on Twitter.

If that isn't 100% intentional I'll drown myself in the river.


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: DavidB. on January 03, 2018, 02:54:58 pm
Why did they defect from SD?


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on January 03, 2018, 03:32:33 pm
Why did they defect from SD?

They defected for different reasons.

Margareta Larsson (who also happens to be party leader Jimmy Åkessons mother-in-law) defected as a protest against what she felt was a too controlling party leadership and lack of democracy with-in the party itself.

Hanna Wigh defected after she was sexually assaulted by another MP for the Swedish Democrats and the party hushed down the incident.

Pavel Gamov didn't defect as much as he was thrown out by the leadership due to a scandalous trip to Moscow (most likely paid for by the Russian government) where he got so awfully drunk it wasn't even acceptable by Russian standards, threatening and assaulting a female party member who was also in Moscow. Which sort of make Hanna Wigh teaming up with him... weird.     



Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: mileslunn on January 03, 2018, 05:18:46 pm
How likely do you think it is the Alliance can return to power?  Also with thresholds, do you see parties on either side missing them as if the Christian Democrats make it but Greens miss it that would seem to favour the Alliance whereas Christian Democrats miss it and Greens make it favour the Alliance.  While social democracy is not in quite the crisis it is in much of the rest of Europe (UK and Portugal perhaps being the exceptions and only in Portugal are they well ahead), its nowhere nearly as dominant in the Nordic Countries as it was in the past.  Do you see Nordic voters moving rightwards?


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: Hydera on January 03, 2018, 06:12:37 pm
How likely do you think it is the Alliance can return to power?  Also with thresholds, do you see parties on either side missing them as if the Christian Democrats make it but Greens miss it that would seem to favour the Alliance whereas Christian Democrats miss it and Greens make it favour the Alliance.  While social democracy is not in quite the crisis it is in much of the rest of Europe (UK and Portugal perhaps being the exceptions and only in Portugal are they well ahead), its nowhere nearly as dominant in the Nordic Countries as it was in the past.  Do you see Nordic voters moving rightwards?


Swedish democrat voters are going towards the M and SocialDemocrats. Because both parties have slowly adopting some of the immigration rhetoric.  Even the Prime minister despite being from a party that was so opposed to SD has said the immigration policy in sweden in the last two decades was a mistake and afterwards instead of it backfiring he actually gained support mainly from those Social Democrat voters while despite what people predicted he didn't lose any support to the other left wing parties.


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on January 03, 2018, 07:29:31 pm
Are KD doomed, or are they the sort of party that has Avery resilient core?


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: FredLindq on January 04, 2018, 02:40:48 am
The Christian Democrats always "borrows" votes from the Moderaterna every election. I.e. tactical voting from moderate voters. However this time Moderaterna has less voters to "lend".

So we will se that the Christian Democrats slowly gets closer to 4 % this year. However they might not pass the threshold at 4% in the end.

I many Swedish communes (and cities) the threshold is instead 2%. So you migh split you vote voting for Christian Democrats to the Riksdag but Modteraterna at the local level.


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: parochial boy on January 04, 2018, 07:57:05 am
The Christian Democrats always "borrows" votes from the Moderaterna every election. I.e. tactical voting from moderate voters. However this time Moderaterna has less voters to "lend".

So we will se that the Christian Democrats slowly gets closer to 4 % this year. However they might not pass the threshold at 4% in the end.

I many Swedish communes (and cities) the threshold is instead 2%. So you migh split you vote voting for Christian Democrats to the Riksdag but Modteraterna at the local level.


You would think the same would end up happening between Social Democrats and the Greens, no? In which case, taking a punt, it would seem both parties wing up over the threshold?

Also, seeing as Feminist Initiative are basically down and out, could their remaining support flow towards the Greens?


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: FredLindq on January 04, 2018, 11:21:21 am
When I was handing out ballot papers in the last election the Feminist Initiative representative told the voters to vote for the left party or the greens at the regional level were they did not stand so there is a clear tactical voting between these three parties. However the Feminist Initiative  is not dead and has got 1,5% in the polls so I don not think that there votes will got to the Greens. I do not think that social democratic voters will tactically vote for the Greens.


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on January 04, 2018, 01:12:52 pm
I think Feminist Initiative's chances of passing the threshold are pretty slim unless something unexpected happens that throw them into the spot-light before the election. They do however have a small vocal and very loyal core that will stay with them through thick and thin and who won't abandon them to cast a tactical vote for the government, which although preferred compared to the right-wing parties are not popular among the urban idealistic left-wing youth. Think of them as Jill Stein voting Berniecrats, the government as Hillary Clinton, the Alliance as Jeb Bush and the Sweden Democrats as Trump and you get the dynamic.

Social Democrats voting tactically for the Greens is a very likely scenario though. It already happened in 2002. 


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on January 04, 2018, 07:25:21 pm
The Christian Democrats have been hovering around the threshold for the past two elections, but they've never spent as much time below the threshold in polls as during the last term. While they've usually counted on Moderate voters saving them, a number of political scientists have said that there's usually a limit for when people are willing to support another party to bring them over a threshold. If Kd are polling close to or around 4% near the election they'll likely be saved, but if they are closer to 3% people may be turned away, too afraid of their vote not mattering if they give it to a party that'll end up outside of parliament.

Out of the two I would say the Greens are more likely to make it above the threshold, both because they haven't polled quite as badly as Kd during the term and can likely count on some Social Democratic support voters, and because they're still the most trusted party on environmental issues according to the polls. If there's some unexpected event that puts the environment into focus during the campaign the Greens could stand to benefit, while Kd which have begun to (re-)focus more on elderly care and healthcare recently, they face tougher competition from the Social Democrats, the Sweden Democrats, and to some extent the Left Party.

If the Liberals also continue their slow decline and start to wobble around the threshold close to the election it would be detrimental to Kd, as potential support voters from the Moderates would be split between which party to led their support to, and I strongly suspect that Kd would lose that fight.

Regarding FI, I agree with the poster above that they have a core base that'll likely won't vote for any other party. However if they're far from the threshold close to the election, which I suspect they will be, all but their most convinced supporters will likely turn to other parties. Possibly the Greens, though their stint in government may decrease those chances, but likely the Left and under some circumstances I think that the Centre Party could pick up a few former FI supporters. Not because of any similarities in their position on the left/right-axis, but because I believe a not-so insiginificant number of FI voters mostly support them because of cultural issues and could therefore come to support the Centre Party under Annie Lööf.


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: EPG on January 05, 2018, 07:30:37 am
What's the rationale for lending support to Kd versus trying to consolidate Kd support into the other Alliance parties? Does Kd attract a different element of society that may not vote for M or L?


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2018, 08:27:16 am
What's the rationale for lending support to Kd versus trying to consolidate Kd support into the other Alliance parties? Does Kd attract a different element of society that may not vote for M or L?

If not would not the Kd vote be wasted from the point of view of a Center-Right alliance ?


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: EPG on January 05, 2018, 01:07:16 pm
I assume many of those 3% who currently support Kd would support Alliance parties if Kd is excluded - I'm wondering whether this is true. Are Kd important enough in some regions to survive with no national representation, or would their supporters transfer to non-Alliance parties, or would they stay home? I assume the answer is one of those three, but I don't know which.

(Edit: I've thought of a fourth possible reason. Maybe there are tactical advantages for M to a conservative party in the alliance, balancing the two liberal parties. I had thought there would be a clear tactical advantage to having a three-party instead of four-party coalition, but thinking about the lessons of game theory between two blocs, I'm no longer so sure.)


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: FredLindq on January 06, 2018, 03:29:25 am
They will mostly stay with KD. KD is very strong at the local level especially in Jönköping, "little Jerusalem" and the swedish bible belt i.e. Småland. Even if KD just gets 3% they will survive in the long term. Their youth wing tries to be the swedish republicans and their former leader Sara Skyttedal claims to be the bluest swedish politican.


Title: Re: Swedish general election, 9 September 2018
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 08, 2018, 09:23:06 am
What's the rationale for lending support to Kd versus trying to consolidate Kd support into the other Alliance parties? Does Kd attract a different element of society that may not vote for M or L?

If not would not the Kd vote be wasted from the point of view of a Center-Right alliance ?

I'm guessing part of their support would disperse, but there would still be 1-2% of the population who are committed Christians and presumably would care more about supporting KD than making sure the Alliance wins.


Title: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on March 06, 2018, 11:23:28 am
?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mvd10 on March 06, 2018, 11:25:00 am
I'd be a member and strong supporter of the Moderates but I'd vote for whatever Alliance party needs my vote the most (most likely the Christian Democrats). Voted Moderates in the poll because I'm not going to vote tactically on Atlas :P.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Mike88 on March 06, 2018, 11:44:06 am
I think this can be the official thread to the Swedish elections. Therefore, here's the average of the polls: (from Wikipedia)

26.8% S
22.6% M
17.8% SD
   9.9% C
   8.2% V
   4.7% L (FP)
   3.8% MP
   3.0% KD
   3.2% Fi/Others

40.1% Alliance (M+C+L+KD)
38.8% S+V+MP

2014 results:
(
Img
)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on March 06, 2018, 11:54:32 am
Replying to Mike's post, these are the percents for the coalitions factoring in the threshold.

37.8% (M+C+L)
35.0% (S+V)
17.3% SD

Others:
MP: 3.8%
KD: 3.0%
FI: 2.0%
Other: 1.6%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on March 06, 2018, 11:56:53 am
Ha, I meant to put this on IP; but I guess it can be used for the actual election.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure the S led faction will win (Nordics often break towards their government, and they're not polling that badly). The big thing will be whether MP (and KD?) get back in.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on March 06, 2018, 11:58:06 am
Rooting hard for the Social Democrats.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Southern Speaker & Acting Southern Gov Punxsutawney Phil on March 06, 2018, 11:59:58 am
Rooting hard for the Social Democrats.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: lilTommy on March 06, 2018, 01:19:15 pm
I think this can be the official thread to the Swedish elections. Therefore, here's the average of the polls: (from Wikipedia)

[color=]26.8red% S[/color]
22.6% M
17.8% SD
   9.9% C
   8.2% V
   4.7% L (FP)
   3.8% MP
   3.0% KD
   3.2% Fi/Othersr[/colo]

40.1% Alliance (M+C+L+KD)
38.8% S+V+MP

2014 results:
(
Img
)

Change since the 2014 election:

26.8% S - 31%, -4.2
22.6% M - 23.3%, -0.7
17.8% SD - 12.9%, +4.9
   9.9% C - 6.1%, +3.8
   8.2% V - 5.7%, +2.5
   4.7% L (FP) - 5.4%, -0.7
   3.8% MP - 6.9%, -3.1
   3.0% KD - 4.6%, -1.6
   3.2% Fi/Othersr - 2.72%, +0.48

Biggest losses from current S/MP governing parties, gains for SD, C and V. Interesting that M is not really capitalizing here, rather its C and SD; while some left/progressive voters are migrating to V.
Take a look at the Feb 16-18 Poll:

22.4% S
20.5% M
22.1% SD
   9.3% C
   10.0% V
   4.7% L (FP)
   3.4% MP
   2.6% KD
   4.9% Fi/Othersr  


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on March 06, 2018, 01:36:12 pm
are L in any trouble or will they stay above the threshold?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on March 06, 2018, 01:51:58 pm
Go SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on March 06, 2018, 02:38:32 pm
Go SD.
Yes go Social Democrats!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on March 06, 2018, 02:44:23 pm
You all know how I am about political Moderates :P

LET'S GO MODERATES


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on March 06, 2018, 02:55:52 pm
I am for the other SD :)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: lilTommy on March 06, 2018, 03:12:41 pm
are L in any trouble or will they stay above the threshold?

by the looks of the polling, MP (greens) are going to fall out first...

since everyone's doing it :P  i'm cheering V! V! V!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on March 06, 2018, 03:21:50 pm
The court case in the link has dominated coverage in the last week. Two of the three jury members decided not to sentence  a muslim man for spousal violence because he 'comes from a better family than her' and because she was deemed untrustworthy due to going to the police instead of trying to solve the case with his family. The judge and the third jury members wanted him to be sentenced, but with a 2-2 result, there is no conviction.
Both jury members had a immigration background and were appointed by the Centre Party as active members in local politics. One of the two has clearly stated that she thinks Swedish law should allow for Sharia Law rulings. After the intense media attention, both persons have been thrown out of the party, but it is a very poor look for the Centre Party.


 https://www.thelocal.se/20180305/controversial-assault-ruling-sparks-debate-in-sweden-thelocal


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JEC4P on March 06, 2018, 03:28:44 pm
How the hell is this election going to end in anything but a deadlock? I don't see either the Moderates' Alliance or Lofven's government gaining a majority given Sweden Democrats' strength.

Where do we end up?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mvd10 on March 06, 2018, 03:34:36 pm
How the hell is this election going to end in anything but a deadlock? I don't see either the Moderates' Alliance or Lofven's government gaining a majority given Sweden Democrats' strength.

Where do we end up?

In 2014 the mainstream parties (Alliance + S bloc) signed an agreement which would let the leader of the largest bloc be PM while the other bloc abstains on budgets and other important stuff. Does that agreement still stand?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on March 06, 2018, 03:44:38 pm
Rooting hard for the Social Democrats.

This though the Swedish Social Democrats are probably one of ny least favourites in Europe. Still better than everyone else though

Also, what are the policies of the Sweden Democrats other than "f*** the EU" and "deport inmigrants"? Are they economically left or right?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on March 06, 2018, 04:10:11 pm
I know, I was being cute ;)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Mazda on March 06, 2018, 04:44:22 pm
are L in any trouble or will they stay above the threshold?

by the looks of the polling, MP (greens) are going to fall out first...

since everyone's doing it :P  i'm cheering V! V! V!
It seems to be an article of faith that when it comes to crunch time, Feminist voters will vote tactically for the Greens to get them over the line.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Pennsylvania Deplorable on March 06, 2018, 09:37:08 pm
The court case in the link has dominated coverage in the last week. Two of the three jury members decided not to sentence  a muslim man for spousal violence because he 'comes from a better family than her' and because she was deemed untrustworthy due to going to the police instead of trying to solve the case with his family. The judge and the third jury members wanted him to be sentenced, but with a 2-2 result, there is no conviction.
Both jury members had a immigration background and were appointed by the Centre Party as active members in local politics. One of the two has clearly stated that she thinks Swedish law should allow for Sharia Law rulings. After the intense media attention, both persons have been thrown out of the party, but it is a very poor look for the Centre Party.


 https://www.thelocal.se/20180305/controversial-assault-ruling-sparks-debate-in-sweden-thelocal
This is why the right makes fun of Sweden. In all seriousness though, it's disturbing and sad to watch the native population give their country away. When migrants can get away with crimes because of liberal judges and/or immigrant jurors but the people complaining about it risk arrest for hate speech, it just adds another level of absurdity.

I'd vote SD, but I doubt they could save Sweden even if they did win.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 06, 2018, 10:19:12 pm
I'm so old that I remember when this particular board used to be a place to discuss psephology, not a place where people posted propaganda.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JonHawk on March 07, 2018, 04:57:35 am
Sweden Democrats is the only good option here. Truly awful parties other than them.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on March 07, 2018, 06:50:12 am
1. No one risks being jailed for hate speech because they complain about immigration and crime. Lol.

2. L is close to the threshold but will likely stay in.

3. SD is not particularly interested in economic issues and are therefore a bit all over the place. I guess it sort of averages out to centrist.

4. The agreement on abstaining and letting the other bloc rule only lasted a year before KD left it and M quickly followed. It's fairly toxic with the centre-right base.

5. What will happen after the election is unclear because no one wants to answer hard questions about it. It's fairly clear M+KD would prefer ruling with SD support over having continued leftwing influence. C and L seem to not want that but it's unclear what their alternative would be.

A separate thread for analyzing the election without inane cheerleading might be a good idea. Personally I'm pretty unenthusiastic with all our parties. Since I won't vote SD or V and I feel like the government ought to be punished for their actions I'll probably vote for a centre-right opposition party but I'm not sure which one yet.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 07, 2018, 02:41:49 pm
I'm so old that I remember when this particular board used to be a place to discuss psephology, not a place where people posted propaganda.

It hasn't even been that long. I remember those days and I've only been around a few years.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Leftbehind on March 08, 2018, 08:07:50 am
4. The agreement on abstaining and letting the other bloc rule only lasted a year before KD left it and M quickly followed. It's fairly toxic with the centre-right base.

5. What will happen after the election is unclear because no one wants to answer hard questions about it. It's fairly clear M+KD would prefer ruling with SD support over having continued leftwing influence. C and L seem to not want that but it's unclear what their alternative would be.

Enough to give SD enough concessions to gain their support, or would they just be banking on their support because they wouldn't want to bring the right bloc down? If the latter, and SD don't play ball, then their unwillingness to see the left bloc govern as a minority will likely be returned.

As for the poll: V


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Mike88 on March 09, 2018, 08:24:07 am
More polls: (with some conflicting numbers)

Inizio poll from March: (http://www.electograph.com/2018/03/sweden-inizio-poll-for-aftonbladet.html)

26.4% S, 105 seats
24.5% M, 97
15.7% SD, 62
  8.8% C, 35
  6.9% V, 27
  5.9% KD, 23
  3.6% L, 0
  3.3% Mp, 0
  2.6% FI, 0
  2.3% Others

42.8% Alliance, 155 seats
36.6% Red-Green, 132

Poll conducted between 1 and 5 March. Polled 2,324 voters. MoE of 2.0%

Demoskop poll from March: (http://www.electograph.com/2018/03/sweden-demoskop-poll-for-expressen.html)

27.2% S, 102 seats
21.8% M, 81
18.6% SD, 69
  8.5% V, 32
  7.9% C, 29
  5.1% L, 19
  4.6% Mp, 17
  3.3% KD, 0
  1.8% FI, 0
  1.2% Others

40.3% Red-Green, 151 seats
38.1% Alliance, 129

Poll conducted between 27 February and 7 March. Polled 1,620 voters. MoE of 2.4%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: KingSweden on March 09, 2018, 09:50:45 am
You all know how I am about political Moderates :P

LET'S GO MODERATES

Moderatpartiet is actually, despite the name, more or less the mainstream right-of-Center party, towards the conservative end of their coalition. My dad was actually a member of their youth organization in college and went to several of their camps/retreats. His older brother (my uncle, who still lives in Sweden) is in the Center Party, who are more libertarian


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: King Francis I on March 09, 2018, 09:52:17 am
Is a M-Kd minority government with SD support the likeliest scenario?

I don't know why but I have the feeling something like that is going to happen.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on March 09, 2018, 10:07:54 am
Moderatpartiet is actually, despite the name, more or less the mainstream right-of-Center party, towards the conservative end of their coalition.

I know, just memeing :)

My dad was actually a member of their youth organization in college and went to several of their camps/retreats. His older brother (my uncle, who still lives in Sweden) is in the Center Party, who are more libertarian

Oh, that's pretty cool! The Center Party seems like a pretty good party too.  If you don't mind, where would you side?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on March 09, 2018, 12:31:19 pm
so it seems the election will hinge more on the smaller parties staying above the threshold more than the larger parties increasing or decreasing in size?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JEC4P on March 09, 2018, 01:16:02 pm
so it seems the election will hinge more on the smaller parties staying above the threshold more than the larger parties increasing or decreasing in size?

Not that different from what we had last year in Norway, actually.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: KingSweden on March 09, 2018, 03:37:18 pm
Moderatpartiet is actually, despite the name, more or less the mainstream right-of-Center party, towards the conservative end of their coalition.

I know, just memeing :)

My dad was actually a member of their youth organization in college and went to several of their camps/retreats. His older brother (my uncle, who still lives in Sweden) is in the Center Party, who are more libertarian

Oh, that's pretty cool! The Center Party seems like a pretty good party too.  If you don't mind, where would you side?

I’d probably swing between Liberals and Center. I was a big Reinfeldt fan but Moderates are tacking right to box out SD, who are godawful.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on March 09, 2018, 04:02:07 pm
Moderatpartiet is actually, despite the name, more or less the mainstream right-of-Center party, towards the conservative end of their coalition.

I know, just memeing :)

My dad was actually a member of their youth organization in college and went to several of their camps/retreats. His older brother (my uncle, who still lives in Sweden) is in the Center Party, who are more libertarian

Oh, that's pretty cool! The Center Party seems like a pretty good party too.  If you don't mind, where would you side?

I’d probably swing between Liberals and Center. I was a big Reinfeldt fan but Moderates are tacking right to box out SD, who are godawful.

Ah ok. Thanks!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Helsinkian on March 09, 2018, 06:31:24 pm
The support for the Feminist Initiative is on the perfect level where it isn't high enough to get them to parliament but is high enough to screw the Greens.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on March 10, 2018, 06:58:16 pm
Former Sweden Democratic Youth leader Gustav Kasselstrand founded a new party to the right of the Sweden Democrats, named Alternative for Sweden (Alternativ för Sverige). Under Kasselstrand's leadership, SD cut all ties with Sweden Democratic Youth because they had become too radical for SD.

Some consider Kasselstrand's move to form a new party to be "a gamechanger" in Swedish politics (Daniel Poohl, CEO of a left-wing organization) as AfS are "bringing together far-right factions that have resisted cooperation in the past and have not been able to find homes within the Sweden Democrats or the small neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement." Others, like political scientist Cas Mudde, say that this is great news for SD, as it backs up SD's claim that they have become more moderate -- so moderate that extremists leave the party in droves and found their own one.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on March 11, 2018, 12:20:47 am
Former Sweden Democratic Youth leader Gustav Kasselstrand founded a new party to the right of the Sweden Democrats, named Alternative for Sweden (Alternativ för Sverige). Under Kasselstrand's leadership, SD cut all ties with Sweden Democratic Youth because they had become too radical for SD.

Some consider Kasselstrand's move to form a new party to be "a gamechanger" in Swedish politics (Daniel Poohl, CEO of a left-wing organization) as AfS are "bringing together far-right factions that have resisted cooperation in the past and have not been able to find homes within the Sweden Democrats or the small neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement." Others, like political scientist Cas Mudde, say that this is great news for SD, as it backs up SD's claim that they have become more moderate -- so moderate that extremists leave the party in droves and found their own one.
I’d be more inclined to agree with Mudde until is AvS polling.

Also: is is Kasselsteand a Petry fan?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on March 11, 2018, 07:24:18 am
I doubt AfS will have much of an impact, but hopefully this continues to push radical elements out of SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on March 11, 2018, 08:45:32 am
I’d be more inclined to agree with Mudde until is AvS polling.
Agreed.
Also: is is Kasselsteand a Petry fan?
Seems more like the Gauland supporting type to me...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on March 11, 2018, 12:44:58 pm
I’d be more inclined to agree with Mudde until is AvS polling.
Agreed.
Also: is is Kasselsteand a Petry fan?
Seems more like the Gauland supporting type to me...
Yeah, I forgot that Petry sort of represented the “moderate” (using that term very lightly) wing of AfD before she left the party.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JEC4P on March 11, 2018, 03:02:55 pm
Wait, does that mean that SD are essentially going to become Sweden's version of Blue Reform, except more popular?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on March 11, 2018, 04:34:12 pm
I mean, the DPP has also split a rightist formation. Surprised Norwegian Progress hasn't also done so by now.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on March 11, 2018, 06:03:18 pm
What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway? And conversely, is there any chance of SD doing well up North this year? - going by *global trends* analysis, working class small towns like Kiruna or Gallivare seem to have avoided giving them many votes up until now.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lord Halifax on March 11, 2018, 06:31:35 pm
What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway?

Lots of migrants and refugees, and lots of problems with some of them.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on March 11, 2018, 06:41:17 pm
What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway?

Lots of migrants and refugees, and lots of problems with some of them.
Generally, lots but of immigrants by itself isn't a predictor of high support for RWPPs, and Skane has been right wing for a long time. To my knowledge, Malmo isn't a bourgeois city like Stockholm so I don't think it's a class thing at hand either


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lord Halifax on March 11, 2018, 07:02:01 pm
What is it about Skane that makes it so good for SD anyway?

Lots of migrants and refugees, and lots of problems with some of them.
Generally, lots but of immigrants by itself isn't a predictor of high support for RWPPs, and Skane has been right wing for a long time. To my knowledge, Malmo isn't a bourgeois city like Stockholm so I don't think it's a class thing at hand either

The "lots of problems with them" is the important part, there is an ongoing gang war in Malmo, crime is high, Jews have been persecuted and so on. Malmo is an old industrial city with a strong working class culture. These places are often good for RWPPs. This thesis explains the SD appeal in Malmo fairly well: http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=1459290&fileOId=1487460 (http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=1459290&fileOId=1487460)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on March 12, 2018, 05:54:31 am
4. The agreement on abstaining and letting the other bloc rule only lasted a year before KD left it and M quickly followed. It's fairly toxic with the centre-right base.

5. What will happen after the election is unclear because no one wants to answer hard questions about it. It's fairly clear M+KD would prefer ruling with SD support over having continued leftwing influence. C and L seem to not want that but it's unclear what their alternative would be.

Enough to give SD enough concessions to gain their support, or would they just be banking on their support because they wouldn't want to bring the right bloc down? If the latter, and SD don't play ball, then their unwillingness to see the left bloc govern as a minority will likely be returned.

As for the poll: V

I'm pretty certain M won't let a Red-Green minority form like they did last term. I however don't think they're ready for any sort of formal deal with SD. So more the latter alternative you mention.

Other things brought up here:

1. Kasselstrand is a crazy fascist and the kind of guy I'd fear for my life from. Thankfully, open fascism has never been a particularly popular concept in Sweden. He'll get some die-hard racists on board but I doubt they will have much impact.

2. The Swedish North has a very strong left-wing tradition. Places like Gällivare and Kiruna extremely so. These are also places where there aren't that many immigrants and where depopulation means people don't necessarily mind some people moving in. SD has crept up in support in places like Dalarna though where the left doesn't have quite the same stranglehold.

3. SD support in Skåne is less about Malmö and more about the rest of the region. It should also be noted that SD used to be a lot more Skåne-based than they are now, because their support has gone up more in other parts of the country.

For reference, SD got about their national average in Malmö but racked up a lot of votes elsewhere.

Skåne has seen a lot of immigrants and also a lot of problems with those immigrants. Malmö is in pretty bad shape. Skåne is also historically more conservative than most of Sweden (not Malmö but the more rural areas). To crazily generalize, Skåne is more like the US South with large landowners having influence historically. It was part of Denmark until the 1600s and was thus more feudal. To some extent I have a feeling its voting patterns still resemble other such parts of the world more than the rest of Sweden. It's, for lack of a better word, a bit less Swedish than the rest of Sweden, sort of like how Denmark is a bit less Scandinavian. It does have industrial areas hit hard by loss of manufacturing but I don't feel that is the main reason for their rise much like I don't buy that as the story behind Trump support. There are lot of angry, racist, fairly well-off white men in Skåne. :P


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on March 12, 2018, 07:11:06 am
as I like to do, if our poll results were the actual results...

S: 110 Seats (-3)
SD: 92 Seats (+43)
V: 80 Seats (+59)
M: 43 Seats (-41)
C: 24 seats (+2)
Other: 0 seats (-60)

11% of votes go to parties below threshold.

Most likely coalition: S+V 190/349 seats


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on March 16, 2018, 05:30:10 pm
If it comes down to it, would SD do a confidence-and-supply deal with The Alliance? Would such an agreement have to be agreed upon by The Alliance, or could SD just do it if they want?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on March 21, 2018, 07:39:42 am
If it comes down to it, would SD do a confidence-and-supply deal with The Alliance? Would such an agreement have to be agreed upon by The Alliance, or could SD just do it if they want?

SD is free to vote for Alliance budgets if they want. However, I'm not sure the Allicance would form a government if they didn't know their budget was guaranteed to pass. It is also not clear that SD would offer supply and confidence without anything in return (I doubt it). And, crucially, C (and maybe L) probably wouldn't agree to any such deal with SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on March 21, 2018, 10:42:23 am
If it comes down to it, would SD do a confidence-and-supply deal with The Alliance? Would such an agreement have to be agreed upon by The Alliance, or could SD just do it if they want?

SD is free to vote for Alliance budgets if they want. However, I'm not sure the Allicance would form a government if they didn't know their budget was guaranteed to pass. It is also not clear that SD would offer supply and confidence without anything in return (I doubt it). And, crucially, C (and maybe L) probably wouldn't agree to any such deal with SD.

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on March 21, 2018, 11:29:23 am

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

The most recent Sentio poll has SD on 23%, Moderates on 19.5% and KD on 4.8%. With the Liberals and FI below the threshold, that is enough for a majority. So it is possible that there can be a right-wing majority, that is not dependent on the two pro-immigration parties. I don't know exactly how strong the Reinfeldt/Bildt etc. wing is within the Moderates, but with a result like the Sentio poll, there should be a decent possibility of a M-KD government with SD support.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on March 21, 2018, 02:15:21 pm

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

The most recent Sentio poll has SD on 23%, Moderates on 19.5% and KD on 4.8%. With the Liberals and FI below the threshold, that is enough for a majority. So it is possible that there can be a right-wing majority, that is not dependent on the two pro-immigration parties. I don't know exactly how strong the Reinfeldt/Bildt etc. wing is within the Moderates, but with a result like the Sentio poll, there should be a decent possibility of a M-KD government with SD support.

That did seem like an outlier though, if I'm not mistaken. Other polls have shown a worse result for the right-wing parties.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on March 22, 2018, 07:25:25 am

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

The most recent Sentio poll has SD on 23%, Moderates on 19.5% and KD on 4.8%. With the Liberals and FI below the threshold, that is enough for a majority. So it is possible that there can be a right-wing majority, that is not dependent on the two pro-immigration parties. I don't know exactly how strong the Reinfeldt/Bildt etc. wing is within the Moderates, but with a result like the Sentio poll, there should be a decent possibility of a M-KD government with SD support.

That did seem like an outlier though, if I'm not mistaken. Other polls have shown a worse result for the right-wing parties.

While you're right, the thing is that the left certainly won't have anything close to a majority. So it's unclear what would happen. There has been speculation that C and/or L could join S. That'd be very controversial though and potentially a little suicidal for them. It also is unclear to what extent they want to work with V or MP (probably not very much).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on March 22, 2018, 08:02:50 am

It looks like without SD support, Alliance can't get enough to form a government, and with SD support, some Alliance parties would leave. Are their chances of forming a government pretty much non-existent at the moment?

The most recent Sentio poll has SD on 23%, Moderates on 19.5% and KD on 4.8%. With the Liberals and FI below the threshold, that is enough for a majority. So it is possible that there can be a right-wing majority, that is not dependent on the two pro-immigration parties. I don't know exactly how strong the Reinfeldt/Bildt etc. wing is within the Moderates, but with a result like the Sentio poll, there should be a decent possibility of a M-KD government with SD support.

That did seem like an outlier though, if I'm not mistaken. Other polls have shown a worse result for the right-wing parties.

While you're right, the thing is that the left certainly won't have anything close to a majority. So it's unclear what would happen. There has been speculation that C and/or L could join S. That'd be very controversial though and potentially a little suicidal for them. It also is unclear to what extent they want to work with V or MP (probably not very much).

Ok thanks!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on March 22, 2018, 09:46:35 am
SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on March 26, 2018, 04:24:47 am
SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.

It is precisely that. Though at the same time they're pushing an amnesty for Afghani refugees and allowing public prayer calls so I'm not sure their triangulation is going to be all that effective in the end.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: President Johnson on March 26, 2018, 02:32:27 pm
Probably Social Democrats, maybe moderates.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on March 26, 2018, 02:57:03 pm
My Isidewith results say my vote for V in the poll was best for my values, according to it I side with...
V 67% of the time,
S 66% of the time,
M 44% of the time,
SD 30% of the time,
and Centre 29% of the time.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on March 26, 2018, 03:20:25 pm
SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.

Seriously?? OK that's insane.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Aboa on March 26, 2018, 04:47:46 pm
SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.

Seriously?? OK that's insane.

While SAP has in the past advocated banning religious schools I think the current proposal is to review all schools on a regular basis and to make harder to get license to run one not to ban them.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DC Al Fine on March 26, 2018, 07:35:52 pm
SAP are currently pledging to abolish all religious schools, which I assume is mainly to target madrassas without looking racist.

Seriously?? OK that's insane.

The worst part of this veiled racist nonsense is that Jews (and to a lesser extent conservative Christians) get royally screwed. Want to run a normal Christian/Jewish school? Too bad! Want to butcher meat in a kosher manner? Whoops, that's too close to Halal ::)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on March 26, 2018, 07:44:40 pm
Apparently Jewish schools get to remain open under the SAP plan because they would be ethnic rather than religious, or so I heard.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on March 27, 2018, 04:53:45 am
I think it's because most religious schools in Sweden are relatively new (a product of the charter movement), but the one Jewish school law is protected by the rules of sui generis.

Basically they're being effectively closed by a pincer. The government will close off public funding for them (as exists in some countries already) but there isn't really any alternative sources of funding because the Swedish government already bans fee-paying full time education for under 18s? I could be totally wrong there.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on March 27, 2018, 05:17:47 am
there isn't really any alternative sources of funding because the Swedish government already bans fee-paying full time education for under 18s? I could be totally wrong there.

Now there's a good idea


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on March 27, 2018, 05:20:40 am
there isn't really any alternative sources of funding because the Swedish government already bans fee-paying full time education for under 18s? I could be totally wrong there.

Now there's a good idea

Totally in agreement there, although it would cause a shockwave amongst the British middle class if it was ever applied here.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 27, 2018, 11:36:15 am
although it would cause a shockwave amongst the British middle class if it was ever applied here.

That's why it would be a good thing though.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on March 28, 2018, 05:29:36 am
The Greens are gonna run on raising immigration. Not sure it's a wise choice even for them.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 28, 2018, 09:02:53 am
The Greens are gonna run on raising immigration. Not sure it's a wise choice even for them.

Given that most Swedish political parties are unusually pragmatic - in different ways o/c - to such an extent that we can even label it an important part of Swedish political culture, the Greens are a great mystery.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on March 28, 2018, 09:59:48 am
The Greens are gonna run on raising immigration. Not sure it's a wise choice even for them.

Given that most Swedish political parties are unusually pragmatic - in different ways o/c - to such an extent that we can even label it an important part of Swedish political culture, the Greens are a great mystery.

Haha, very true. If they and KD both miss the threshold I won't shed any tears.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on April 05, 2018, 09:02:04 am
Brannon wants to visit SD to “learn from them”, but they don’t want him:

https://www.salon.com/2018/04/03/steve-bannon-reveals-plans-to-visit-sweden-to-learn-from-the-nations-far-right-party_partner/

Non-US posters: is Bannon viewed as particularly extreme even beyond Trump?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on April 07, 2018, 08:49:17 am
Non-US posters: is Bannon viewed as particularly extreme even beyond Trump?
I doubt many people know who he is. Those who do are probably likely to view him as the main alt-right "influential" within his (former) circle, so yes, they will probably view him as more extreme than Trump.

That said, having Bannon come over isn't bad in PR terms because he's Bannon (most people don't know him), it's bad because he's tied to Trump, who is very unpopular in Europe, even among many voters for radical right-wing parties.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on April 10, 2018, 10:49:13 am
Lots of talk about AfS in the right-wing internet sphere. Swedes, do you have the impression that they are taking off? Chances of them making it into parliament?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on April 10, 2018, 10:58:45 am
I was previously under the impression that AvS would be small, and the defection of the far-right would be a net benefit for the SD. But if they're actually taking off enough to come close to entering parliament they could be harming SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on April 10, 2018, 11:04:21 am
I was previously under the impression that AvS would be small, and the defection of the far-right would be a net benefit for the SD. But if they're actually taking off enough to come close to entering parliament they could be harming SD.
By a) normalizing SD, who look moderate in comparison, and b) moving the Overton window to the right, they could still help increase the chances of SD government cooperation with the center-right (through a demand-and-supply agreement or on an ad-hoc basis, not from within the government), even if SD's percentage of the vote would be a bit lower. I hope AfS manage to make it in and would consider voting for them if they poll higher than 3%.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on April 10, 2018, 11:24:38 am
Lots of talk about AfS in the right-wing internet sphere. Swedes, do you have the impression that they are taking off? Chances of them making it into parliament?

I'd rate their chances as rather low. Right now they're sort of in the spot-light because of the defections but besides that they seem to be rather unknown among the general public. Gustav Kasselstrand has had a following among the alt-right for a long time but it doesn't seem to translate to the comman SD-voter. When Kasselstrand was expelled from the party there was hardly a dent in SD's poll numbers.

I also think people have sort of a hard time to differentiate what makes AfS different from SD. Back when Kasselstrand was still a member of SD his main beef with the leadership was that he didn't like their pro-Israel policies, that he thought the party lacked internal democracy, and that he wanted them to move right on economics (a subject he has made a 180 U-turn on since he now accuses SD of having become to close to the right...) So I don't see what would compel the average SD-voter abandon the safe option to vote for an alternative (pun intended) that may not make it in and thus risk wasting their vote.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on April 10, 2018, 11:45:16 am
I was previously under the impression that AvS would be small, and the defection of the far-right would be a net benefit for the SD. But if they're actually taking off enough to come close to entering parliament they could be harming SD.
By a) normalizing SD, who look moderate in comparison, and b) moving the Overton window to the right, they could still help increase the chances of SD government cooperation with the center-right (through a demand-and-supply agreement or on an ad-hoc basis, not from within the government), even if SD's percentage of the vote would be a bit lower. I hope AfS manage to make it in and would consider voting for them if they poll higher than 3%.
I meant AvS might harm SD by taking away a chunk of the vote SD can’t make up with center-right coverts.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on April 10, 2018, 11:53:25 am
I was previously under the impression that AvS would be small, and the defection of the far-right would be a net benefit for the SD. But if they're actually taking off enough to come close to entering parliament they could be harming SD.
By a) normalizing SD, who look moderate in comparison, and b) moving the Overton window to the right, they could still help increase the chances of SD government cooperation with the center-right (through a demand-and-supply agreement or on an ad-hoc basis, not from within the government), even if SD's percentage of the vote would be a bit lower. I hope AfS manage to make it in and would consider voting for them if they poll higher than 3%.
I meant AvS might harm SD by taking away a chunk of the vote SD can’t make up with center-right coverts.
Sure, but SD's actual percentage of the vote doesn't matter as much as its coalitionability. It might be better for SD to win 17% of the vote but to be perceived as the more moderate party than to win 23%, to still be called Nazis, and to be sidelined. Of course, should AfS really win so much that SD barely make any gains compared to 2014, this would be different, but this scenario does not seem too likely to me.

Thank you for your answer, SwedishCheese. How anti-Israel are AfS exactly? I suppose I could live with a "not our problem, don't engage with it" stance to the point where I could still vote for them over SD (who are better on this issue), but anything further than that (i.e. outspoken solidarity with "Palestine") would be a dealbreaker.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lord Halifax on April 10, 2018, 01:56:11 pm
I don't see what would compel the average SD-voter abandon the safe option to vote for an alternative (pun intended) that may not make it in and thus risk wasting their vote.

AfS are in favor of repatriation of unassimilated foreigners, that is far more radical than SD's policy.



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on April 10, 2018, 02:00:49 pm
I don't see what would compel the average SD-voter abandon the safe option to vote for an alternative (pun intended) that may not make it in and thus risk wasting their vote.
AfS are in favor of repatriation of unassimilated foreigners, that is far more radical than SD's policy.
Yes, I do not recall SD campaigning on deporting "hundreds of thousands. At least." I cannot think of another RRWP in Western Europe that has explicitly said the same, either.

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on April 10, 2018, 02:13:17 pm
I don't see what would compel the average SD-voter abandon the safe option to vote for an alternative (pun intended) that may not make it in and thus risk wasting their vote.
AfS are in favor of repatriation of unassimilated foreigners, that is far more radical than SD's policy.
Yes, I do not recall SD campaigning on deporting "hundreds of thousands. At least." I cannot think of another RRWP in Western Europe that has explicitly said the same, either.

While the FPÖ is not saying it, they are doing it right now:

Last year, there were a record 12.000 deportations here (under SPÖVP).

But with Kickl (FPÖ) recently speeding up the raids (as campaigned on), deportations this year are likely reaching 20.000-30.000

So, in the coming 5 years this would mean 100.000-150.000 removals from the country - assuming they keep the pace.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on April 11, 2018, 03:39:25 am

Since not many Swedes want to back full-blown fascism, AfS is unlikely to do much better than their various predecessors on the far-right fringe.

I used to know a Kasselstrand fan, very weird person. And extremely anti-semitic.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on April 11, 2018, 11:03:13 am


Thank you for your answer, SwedishCheese. How anti-Israel are AfS exactly? I suppose I could live with a "not our problem, don't engage with it" stance to the point where I could still vote for them over SD (who are better on this issue), but anything further than that (i.e. outspoken solidarity with "Palestine") would be a dealbreaker.

Kasselstrand's position is that Palestine should be internationally recognized as an independent state, according to himself based on his nationalistic belief that every people (and he's counts the Palestinians as one) has a right to their own sovereign nation and right to expel people with another nationality and culture.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on April 11, 2018, 11:20:10 am
AfS are Nazis so they probably want Jews to be dead. Hardly surprising David B would be a fan of theirs.
... ???

I used to know a Kasselstrand fan, very weird person. And extremely anti-semitic.
I used to know an Alliance voter online, very weird person. And extremely smug. All these parties must be like that as well.

Kasselstrand's position is that Palestine should be internationally recognized as an independent state, according to himself based on his nationalistic belief that every people (and he's counts the Palestinians as one) has a right to their own sovereign nation and right to expel people with another nationality and culture.
This positioning doesn't pass the bullsh*t test. No Palestinian supporter on the far right actually cares about Palestinians, they only care about opposing Jews. Regardless, the damage on this subject is already done, as Sweden is unlikely to withdraw its recognition of Palestine even under an Alliance or right-wing government. If AfS want to stay neutral (no foreign aid to P., neutral votes in international fora) I could live with their stance, otherwise it becomes problematic. Anyway, difficult to form an opinion of them. I will just follow in what direction they develop themselves. Seems like they attracted some of the more serious SD politicians.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Aboa on April 11, 2018, 05:04:16 pm
I don't remember neither Kasselstrand or Hahne actually saying anything about Palestine after 2011 and even then they justified as a counter move to SD stance against Palestine statehood. I doubt it's in anyway central question in AfS agenda.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on April 12, 2018, 03:53:22 am
AfS are Nazis so they probably want Jews to be dead. Hardly surprising David B would be a fan of theirs.
... ???

I used to know a Kasselstrand fan, very weird person. And extremely anti-semitic.
I used to know an Alliance voter online, very weird person. And extremely smug. All these parties must be like that as well.

Kasselstrand's position is that Palestine should be internationally recognized as an independent state, according to himself based on his nationalistic belief that every people (and he's counts the Palestinians as one) has a right to their own sovereign nation and right to expel people with another nationality and culture.
This positioning doesn't pass the bullsh*t test. No Palestinian supporter on the far right actually cares about Palestinians, they only care about opposing Jews. Regardless, the damage on this subject is already done, as Sweden is unlikely to withdraw its recognition of Palestine even under an Alliance or right-wing government. If AfS want to stay neutral (no foreign aid to P., neutral votes in international fora) I could live with their stance, otherwise it becomes problematic. Anyway, difficult to form an opinion of them. I will just follow in what direction they develop themselves. Seems like they attracted some of the more serious SD politicians.

I was just noting that people liking Kasselstrand are very rare and the only one I've encountered was predictably fascist and weird.

And it's a little odd that someone who makes such a big show out of Jewish identity would be so positive towards people like Kasselstrand. I can assure you he doesn't make us feel very safe.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on April 12, 2018, 04:19:22 am
Anyway, the signalling of AfS is very obvious if one knows anything about the far-right.

How can you tell if a far-right party is actually closeted Nazis?

1. Does their hatred of Jews trump their hatred of Muslims so much that they oppose Israel? Check!
2. Does their hatred of global world order/the US/capitalism/The West (read:Jews) trump their hatred of Muslims so much that they oppose the US, NATO etc? Check!
3. Do they for unclear reasons make a big deal out of animal rights in the tradition of a certain mustachioed gentleman? Check!
4. Do they get their inspiration from creepy videos where people shout about race war? Check!
5. Do they support openly racist "identitarians"? Check!

They're also not attracting serious SDers. People like Mikael Jansson were always uncomfortable with SD dropping the overt racism. If one knows anything about Swedish politics this is very clear. SD no longer opposes race-mixing and this upsets some people. Though not very many outside their activist base. Toss in a few dissatisfied whingers who are in it for personal reasons and you have a party but not a very appealing one.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on April 21, 2018, 07:07:43 am
Embarrassing follow-up: turns out I have a friend running for parliament on the AFS list. The guy has turned incredibly racist in the last few years but it's still a bit of a crazy transition from the libertarian he used to be.

Though I guess if you consider support for Nelson Mandela the biggest betrayal of the post-war era and that immigration is problematic because black people are too unintelligent, there aren't a lot of options on the table.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on April 21, 2018, 08:34:33 am
Embarrassing follow-up: turns out I have a friend running for parliament on the AFS list. The guy has turned incredibly racist in the last few years but it's still a bit of a crazy transition from the libertarian he used to be.

Though I guess if you consider support for Nelson Mandela the biggest betrayal of the post-war era and that immigration is problematic because black people are too unintelligent, there aren't a lot of options on the table.

Geez.

Have you talked to this guy since? Tried to knock some sense into him?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on April 24, 2018, 08:35:20 am
Embarrassing follow-up: turns out I have a friend running for parliament on the AFS list. The guy has turned incredibly racist in the last few years but it's still a bit of a crazy transition from the libertarian he used to be.

Though I guess if you consider support for Nelson Mandela the biggest betrayal of the post-war era and that immigration is problematic because black people are too unintelligent, there aren't a lot of options on the table.

Geez.

Have you talked to this guy since? Tried to knock some sense into him?

I argued with him online about the "blacks are too dumb to work" position but I haven't met him in person in about a year. I think he's become a bit of a lost cause.

In other news, the Centre party sided with the government on their amnesty mess so the Alliance is probs done.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 06, 2018, 12:52:36 pm
https://www.thelocal.se/20180504/swedish-social-democrats-aim-to-halve-refugee-numbers

Social Democratic aim to halve refugee numbers.

I guess a resumption of the Green-Red coalition is out of the question?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 06, 2018, 01:50:16 pm
https://www.thelocal.se/20180504/swedish-social-democrats-aim-to-halve-refugee-numbers

Social Democratic aim to halve refugee numbers.

I guess a resumption of the Green-Red coalition is out of the question?

It'll be quite hard to sell a continuation of the coalition to the membership of either party. At the moment it doesn't even seem as if the two parties are trying to hide their contempt for each-other any longer.

I think if there's one thing we can be sure about when it comes to this election it is that government will be hard for whoever wins. (Though that seems to be standard in European elections nowadays...)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 06, 2018, 01:58:47 pm
I wonder, given the collapse of Alliance; is SAP making overtures to Centre, the Liberals etc to see if they don't mind supporting a Social Democratic government? A SAP-Centre government with outside support from the Liberals and Greens could probably be viable numerically (although I don't know about politically).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 06, 2018, 02:58:06 pm
I wonder, given the collapse of Alliance; is SAP making overtures to Centre, the Liberals etc to see if they don't mind supporting a Social Democratic government? A SAP-Centre government with outside support from the Liberals and Greens could probably be viable numerically (although I don't know about politically).

It's not really feasible. The reason the Alliance are having troubles is immigration. While the Centre Party and to a lesser extent the Liberals want a more generous immigration policy, both the Moderates and the Social Democrats wants further restrictions.

So the Centre Party doesn't agree with SAP on either immigration or economics, while they at least agree on economics with the Moderates. So if C isn't able to agree with M they aren't very likely to agree with SAP and form government with them.

My bet for a long time has been that we either get a pure Moderate minority government or a pure Social Democratic minority government.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on May 07, 2018, 08:04:35 am
I wonder, given the collapse of Alliance; is SAP making overtures to Centre, the Liberals etc to see if they don't mind supporting a Social Democratic government? A SAP-Centre government with outside support from the Liberals and Greens could probably be viable numerically (although I don't know about politically).

It's not really feasible. The reason the Alliance are having troubles is immigration. While the Centre Party and to a lesser extent the Liberals want a more generous immigration policy, both the Moderates and the Social Democrats wants further restrictions.

So the Centre Party doesn't agree with SAP on either immigration or economics, while they at least agree on economics with the Moderates. So if C isn't able to agree with M they aren't very likely to agree with SAP and form government with them.

My bet for a long time has been that we either get a pure Moderate minority government or a pure Social Democratic minority government.

Assuming the Liberals and Greens get in, yes and even then they probably would be a minority government (albeit one that would usually win votes probably).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on May 07, 2018, 08:07:02 am
Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on May 14, 2018, 07:13:23 am
Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?

Officially it's still alive, I think all the Alliance parties still claim that they want an Alliance government. But everyone knows it's kind of dead due to the immigration split.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on May 14, 2018, 07:56:37 am
Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?

Officially it's still alive, I think all the Alliance parties still claim that they want an Alliance government. But everyone knows it's kind of dead due to the immigration split.

Ah. Any chance the Moderate Party reverts to how it used to be post-election?

Also, if you don't mind, who are you supporting?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on May 14, 2018, 11:00:33 am
Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?

Officially it's still alive, I think all the Alliance parties still claim that they want an Alliance government. But everyone knows it's kind of dead due to the immigration split.

Ah. Any chance the Moderate Party reverts to how it used to be post-election?

No, they have invested a lot of effort trying to re-brand themselves as a party that is though on immigration. Shifting their position on immigration and get people to see their new policy as credible and reliable has been one of their main focuses the last four years and changing position once more would be deadly for their support.

My guess is that although they want an Alliance government they'd be willing to sacrifice it if the choice was between that and start bleeding voters to SD again.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on May 14, 2018, 11:18:01 am
Is The Alliance officially dead or just facing a lot of disagreement over immigration?

Officially it's still alive, I think all the Alliance parties still claim that they want an Alliance government. But everyone knows it's kind of dead due to the immigration split.

Ah. Any chance the Moderate Party reverts to how it used to be post-election?

Also, if you don't mind, who are you supporting?

Yeah, I agree with the above analysis that they're gonna stick to a tougher line for at least this election.

I don't really know who I'll support I'm pretty dissatisfied with all the parties tbh.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2018, 11:57:31 pm
What are the current, official positions/statements of the center-right parties on a possible coalition with the far-right SD ?

Together, these parties would get some 60% right now.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on May 19, 2018, 06:55:14 am
I think everyone is officially opposed to it, but most people suspect M and KD would be open to it in practice. C is definitely totally opposed. L is somewhere in between that I think.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2018, 06:58:06 am
I think everyone is officially opposed to it, but most people suspect M and KD would be open to it in practice. C is definitely totally opposed. L is somewhere in between that I think.

Thx.

Between such a coalition of M+SD+KD, a SAP+M "grand" coalition, a SAP+M+SD really grand coalition and a minority government of either left or right, how would you rate the likelihoods in % ?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on May 19, 2018, 07:39:00 am
Why does YouGov continually show SD as being so much further ahead than any other poll?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2018, 08:01:29 am
Why does YouGov continually show SD as being so much further ahead than any other poll?

I would usually say because it is an online poll and because of young people being strong Far-Right supporters. And because Sweden has high turnout, which means young people are turning out in big numbers as well, they are also very accurate (YouGov and Sentio, both online polls, were the most accurate in predicting the SD-share in 2014).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on May 19, 2018, 08:04:58 am
Why does YouGov continually show SD as being so much further ahead than any other poll?

I would usually say because it is an online poll and because of young people being strong Far-Right supporters. And because Sweden has high turnout, which means young people are turning out in big numbers as well, they are also very accurate (YouGov and Sentio, both online polls, were the most accurate in predicting the SD-share in 2014).

Ah ok. Makes sense.

I feel distrusting of YouGov in the Swedish election, but then again, it was the only major prediction group to predict a hung parliament in the UK last year.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 19, 2018, 08:08:23 am
I'm going to say - Swedes can correct me if I'm wrong - that a minority government is far, far, far more likely than any cross-bloc coalition.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on May 19, 2018, 09:07:35 am
Lots of things to answer. Online polls tend to show higher SD support. They've been more accurate for SD in the past but not the most accurate overall.

Sweden has a high bar for being in government together and also a long history of minority governments so I'd say minority government is most likely.

To be specific, the chance of an S+SD gov is 0%. M+SD+KD is like maybe 5% at most and M+S is probably a decent chance like 10%.

The most likely cross the aisle gov is probably something like S + C + L tbh.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on May 26, 2018, 12:46:28 am
It should be noted that the SD gained significantly in the last few months, going from 15% to around 20% and almost reaching the level of a year ago.

They will likely end up between 20-25%, putting them in a tough fight for 1st between the Social Democrats and the Moderates.

The Social Democrats are heading for an all-time low in this election, also because the Left Party is rather strong this time.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on June 06, 2018, 04:28:22 am
Since today is the National Day of Sweden, I think it's suitable to update with some interesting opinion polls.

(Election result 2014 in parenthesis)



Yesterday SCB released their famous once-every-six-months poll which by many is seen as the most prestigious poll of all.

Sweden parliament:

Left party - 7,4% (5,7%)
Social Democrats - 28,3%  (31,0%)
Green Party - 4,3% (6,9%)

Centre Party - 8,7% (6,1%)
Liberals - 4,4% (5,4%)
Christian Democrats - 2,9% (4,6%)
Moderates - 22,6% (23,3%)

Sweden Democrats - 18,5% (12,9%)



The Gotheburg based newspaper Göteborgsposten has commissioned a poll from Sifo for the local city council election in Gothenburg.

Gothenburg city council:

Left party - 13,2% (9,4%)
Social Democrats - 15,4%  (22,4%)
Green Party - 5,0% (10,7%)

Feminist Initiative - 4,2% (4,0%)

Centre Party - 3,3% (2,7%)
Liberals - 6,3% (8,1%)
Christian Democrats - 1,8% (4,0%)
Moderates - 19,7% (22,3%)

Sweden Democrats - 9,9% (7,0%)

Democrats* - 13,9% (N/A)
Vägvalet (Road choice)* - 5,6% (4,9%)

*Local party



The Malmö based newspaper Sydsvenskan has also commissioned a poll from Novus for the local city council election in Malmö.

Malmö city council:

Left party - 11,1% (8,5%)
Social Democrats - 29,5%  (32,9%)
Green Party - 5,0% (8,6%)

Feminist Initiative - 2,2% (3,2%)

Centre Party - 2,3% (1,7%)
Liberals - 5,8% (5,4%)
Christian Democrats - 1,3% (1,5%)
Moderates - 22,6% (23,3%)

Sweden Democrats - 17,6% (13,1%)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on June 06, 2018, 03:22:45 pm
It's a long shot, but supposing the Greens, Liberals, KD and FI all fall below the threshold; you could potentially have something like 15% of all votes being "wasted" as it were.

Would that start to lead to some demands for electoral reform?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on June 13, 2018, 02:58:30 pm
The Social Democrats are dropping like a rock in Sweden right now ...

They are down 8% in the last half year, from around 30% to about 21-23% now.

I wouldn't rule out the Sweden Democrats winning 25-30% of the vote now, if they are acting as a big vacuum cleaner for former Social Democratic and Moderate voters.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on June 14, 2018, 07:34:18 am
The Jewish community in northern Umeå has closed down following serious threats by the neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement. This means there is no Jewish community left in the northern 2/3rds of Sweden. The Jewish community laments the lack of concrete actions taken by local politicians to make sure no threats would be issued anymore.

Nordic Resistance has grown by a lot and spread like wildfire all over Sweden over the last few years. They sought to organize a march at a synagogue in Göteborg on Yom Kippur last year to intimidate Jews, but were banned from doing so.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DL on June 14, 2018, 09:41:53 am
The Jewish community in northern Umeå has closed down following serious threats by the neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement. This means there is no Jewish community left in the northern 2/3rds of Sweden. The Jewish community laments the lack of concrete actions taken by local politicians to make sure no threats would be issued anymore.

Nordic Resistance has grown by a lot and spread like wildfire all over Sweden over the last few years. They sought to organize a march at a synagogue in Göteborg on Yom Kippur last year to intimidate Jews, but were banned from doing so.

Unfortunately, these days much of the "Jewish establishment" around the world has veered off to the far right and likes to turn a blind eye to ultra rightwing neo-Nazi anti-semitism (I mean who cares about the Nazis they only killed siox million of us) like this. They will spend 99.% of their time fretting about "anti-semitism on the left" and obsess over parsing every sentence uttered by Jeremy Corbyn, while ignoring these rightwing xenophobes. Look at how Netanyahu sucks up to anti-semitic xenophobes like Orban and Putin....


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: kelestian on June 14, 2018, 09:59:29 am
The Jewish community in northern Umeå has closed down following serious threats by the neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement. This means there is no Jewish community left in the northern 2/3rds of Sweden. The Jewish community laments the lack of concrete actions taken by local politicians to make sure no threats would be issued anymore.

Nordic Resistance has grown by a lot and spread like wildfire all over Sweden over the last few years. They sought to organize a march at a synagogue in Göteborg on Yom Kippur last year to intimidate Jews, but were banned from doing so.

Unfortunately, these days much of the "Jewish establishment" around the world has veered off to the far right and likes to turn a blind eye to ultra rightwing neo-Nazi anti-semitism (I mean who cares about the Nazis they only killed siox million of us) like this. They will spend 99.% of their time fretting about "anti-semitism on the left" and obsess over parsing every sentence uttered by Jeremy Corbyn, while ignoring these rightwing xenophobes. Look at how Netanyahu sucks up to anti-semitic xenophobes like Orban and Putin....

Putin? Antisemite?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on June 16, 2018, 12:57:08 pm
In other anti-semitism news Björn Söder, 2nd Deputy Speaker of the Riksdag and former Party Secretary of the Sweden Democrats decided to open his mouth (well, technically his facebook account) and talk a bit about Jews and Swedishness again. After all, it went so well when he did it back in 2014.

Quote
"Annie Lööf belittles the status of Jews and Sami in Sweden when she indirectly claims that they are Swedes. These groups have minority statuses in Sweden just because they are not Swedes. Be ashamed, Annie Lööf, for your racist attitude." - Björn Söder



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on June 19, 2018, 02:44:56 am
A gang-related drive-by shooting in Chicago Malmö left 3 people dead and 1 seriously injured.

I expect the Swedes to send a strong signal in September.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on June 19, 2018, 11:46:24 am
In other anti-semitism news Björn Söder, 2nd Deputy Speaker of the Riksdag and former Party Secretary of the Sweden Democrats decided to open his mouth (well, technically his facebook account) and talk a bit about Jews and Swedishness again. After all, it went so well when he did it back in 2014.

Quote
"Annie Lööf belittles the status of Jews and Sami in Sweden when she indirectly claims that they are Swedes. These groups have minority statuses in Sweden just because they are not Swedes. Be ashamed, Annie Lööf, for your racist attitude." - Björn Söder
Not a smart issue to talk about right before an election. That said, I don't think it was antisemitic. I followed the controversy, and his argument was that Sweden (essentially like Russia) is a multicultural society that comprises multiple peoples: the Swedish nation, but also Jews and Sami. According to this line of reasoning Jews and Sami are equally Swedish in terms of citizenship but are distinct peoples with a right to their own culture and heritage, together making up Sweden. Not recognizing this would essentially force these minorities into the Swedish mold.

One can agree or disagree with this. I am on the fence, and I understand why many Jews would dislike the perception of their Swedishness being questioned. I certainly would feel awkward if the Dutch right started talking about this subject. However, I don't think it is antisemitic, as I think Söder meant to say what I outlined in the above paragraph.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ingemann on June 20, 2018, 10:17:56 am
In other anti-semitism news Björn Söder, 2nd Deputy Speaker of the Riksdag and former Party Secretary of the Sweden Democrats decided to open his mouth (well, technically his facebook account) and talk a bit about Jews and Swedishness again. After all, it went so well when he did it back in 2014.

Quote
"Annie Lööf belittles the status of Jews and Sami in Sweden when she indirectly claims that they are Swedes. These groups have minority statuses in Sweden just because they are not Swedes. Be ashamed, Annie Lööf, for your racist attitude." - Björn Söder

This is the danger with falling in love with a clever debating point, you forget how it can be used against you. This would  have been a excellent anonymous attack on a internet board, it was less smart to use by a senior member of a party, which was original founded by neo-Nazis.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on June 20, 2018, 02:34:13 pm
YouGov poll for June

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on June 20, 2018, 02:40:47 pm
YouGov poll for June

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on June 20, 2018, 02:50:06 pm
The Sweden Democrats gain 16% compared with the 2014 election and 5.5% compared with the same poll from last month.

Lowest ever result for the Social Democrats, while the Greens and Christian Democrats would be kicked out of parliament ...

On the other hand, the Left Party also gains 3.5% compared with the 2014 election.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on June 20, 2018, 03:11:41 pm
The KD getting kicked out seems like s certainty now, the greens will be close.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on June 20, 2018, 04:07:04 pm
I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on June 20, 2018, 04:11:37 pm
I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

Is a Social Democrat-Sweden Democrat government possible? In that case it would have a big effect as it would determine who the next PM of Sweden is.

A far right PM in Sweden would be a huge thing while a centre-left one is no problem. Alternatively, same thing goes with the Moderates.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on June 20, 2018, 04:33:58 pm
Are YouGov polls reliable in Sweden? They've largely been on the outside by showing, first, SD leading when no one else did and, now, SD leading by such large margins when no one else is.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ingemann on June 20, 2018, 04:39:47 pm
I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

Is a Social Democrat-Sweden Democrat government possible? In that case it would have a big effect as it would determine who the next PM of Sweden is.

A far right PM in Sweden would be a huge thing while a centre-left one is no problem. Alternatively, same thing goes with the Moderates.

No a coalition between the Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats are not possible.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ingemann on June 20, 2018, 04:43:23 pm
Are YouGov polls reliable in Sweden? They've largely been on the outside by showing, first, SD leading when no one else did and, now, SD leading by such large margins when no one else is.

Honestly no poll is really reliable with the Sweden Democrats, I suspect that YouGov have been able to see that they other polls gave SD too low a vote, when compared to the size of error last election and now they have gone to far to th other side.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on June 20, 2018, 05:17:16 pm
As much as anything, it seems quite, unusual, in the context of a scandiwegie election, to be seeing such a swing away rrom the incumbent at this stage


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on June 21, 2018, 03:22:09 am
I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

Is a Social Democrat-Sweden Democrat government possible? In that case it would have a big effect as it would determine who the next PM of Sweden is.

A far right PM in Sweden would be a huge thing while a centre-left one is no problem. Alternatively, same thing goes with the Moderates.

Even if the Sweden Democrats were to be a part of a government, I am certain they would not lead it, not matter whether they are the largest party or not.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on June 21, 2018, 06:04:55 am
If SD really get close to 30%, a minority government of M supported from the outside by SD (and L) seems difficult to avoid unless they really want to give the finger to all these SD voters. But it's probably going to be somewhere in 20-25% territory.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Aboa on June 21, 2018, 06:08:38 am
I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).
Is a Social Democrat-Sweden Democrat government possible?
No, not really


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on June 21, 2018, 06:12:27 am
YouGov poll for June

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Which parties other than AfS are below the threshold under "Other" and will get more than a non-negligible share of the vote? If there are none, AfS could be close to 3% in this poll.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on June 21, 2018, 06:40:19 am
Maybe the Pirates are still around?

Looking at the 2014 election, only the Pirates (0.43%) and a tiny party called "Unity" (0.1%) got above 0.1%. I guess all the random tiny parties might add up to an additional 0.5%.

So assuming they all stay at their 2014 levels AfS should be polling at 2.4%

Honestly, if pollsters are polling the Feminist party, there's no reason to poll AfS, which is probably around the same level as them


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on June 21, 2018, 07:44:40 am
I believe there's some kind of Islamic party that could get a decent 1% of the vote from diehards. There's also an animal rights party, and that sort of single issue party often gets a surprising amount of votes (from people who are like "I don't like politics much and politicians are all crooks, but animals are cute I guess").


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: FredLindq on June 21, 2018, 08:50:16 am
https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medborgerlig_samling_(2010-talet)

A new non-socialist is probably the party with the strongest support among the "others".


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on June 21, 2018, 09:29:49 am
https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medborgerlig_samling_(2010-talet)

A new non-socialist is probably the party with the strongest support among the "others".
What is the difference between this party and the Liberals (or the Moderates, for that matter)?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on June 21, 2018, 09:42:44 am
If SAP do badly and if the rural/urban trends seen a lot nowadays manifest themselves in Sweden, could we see the solid red north of Sweden start to turn blue or yellow?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lord Halifax on June 21, 2018, 11:07:44 am
If SAP do badly and if the rural/urban trends seen a lot nowadays manifest themselves in Sweden, could we see the solid red north of Sweden start to turn blue or yellow?

That is the region with the least immigrants and refugees, so it shouldn't be fertile ground for SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on June 21, 2018, 11:26:36 am
In other anti-semitism news Björn Söder, 2nd Deputy Speaker of the Riksdag and former Party Secretary of the Sweden Democrats decided to open his mouth (well, technically his facebook account) and talk a bit about Jews and Swedishness again. After all, it went so well when he did it back in 2014.

Quote
"Annie Lööf belittles the status of Jews and Sami in Sweden when she indirectly claims that they are Swedes. These groups have minority statuses in Sweden just because they are not Swedes. Be ashamed, Annie Lööf, for your racist attitude." - Björn Söder
Not a smart issue to talk about right before an election. That said, I don't think it was antisemitic. I followed the controversy, and his argument was that Sweden (essentially like Russia) is a multicultural society that comprises multiple peoples: the Swedish nation, but also Jews and Sami. According to this line of reasoning Jews and Sami are equally Swedish in terms of citizenship but are distinct peoples with a right to their own culture and heritage, together making up Sweden. Not recognizing this would essentially force these minorities into the Swedish mold.

One can agree or disagree with this. I am on the fence, and I understand why many Jews would dislike the perception of their Swedishness being questioned. I certainly would feel awkward if the Dutch right started talking about this subject. However, I don't think it is antisemitic, as I think Söder meant to say what I outlined in the above paragraph.

Of course you can decide what you feel is anti-semitic and what isn't, though Willy Silberstein (President of the Swedish Committee Against Anti-Semitism, 2009-2017) certainly didn't feel the same.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/debatt/a/21edj4/jo-bjorn-soder--jag-ar-bade-jude-och-svensk (https://www.aftonbladet.se/debatt/a/21edj4/jo-bjorn-soder--jag-ar-bade-jude-och-svensk)
Quote
It feels almost degrading to have to argue for my "Swedishness".

I was born at the general birthing centre in Norrköping. I have done military service for Sweden. I have paid tax for about four decades. I cry a little during midsummer because everything is so beautiful and fleeting.

Even so, I'm not Swedish according to Björn Söder.

Will he in the long run want me to leave Sweden?

I do not think so. But I'm quite frustrated why a leading politician, in addition to that a Speaker, devotes so much effort to spreading that I and other Jews and Sami are not Swedes.

[...]

It is a fact that it was Nazis who founded the Swedish Democrats.

One of the founders was Gustaf Ekström. Some examples from his CV:
-Joined Swedish National Socialist Party in 1932
-Volunteer in Waffen-SS
-At the age of 81, founded the Sweden Democrats
-Gustaf Ekström said, among other things, that talk about Nazi concentration camps was war   propaganda

This anti-semite was the founder of the Sweden Democrats. Today, in 2018, a leading representative of the same party, Speaker Björn Söder, says that I, as a Jew, is not Swedish.

Björn Söder is thus keeping alive an old, anti-semitic view of us Jews.

It is a pity for our beautiful country, Sweden, that he is a Speaker and thus represents Sweden, including in international events.

It's also worth to note that Söder extended the same sentiment towards Tornedalians, which resulted in the Minister for Rural Affairs Sven-Erik Bucht (a Tornedalian) angrily calling out Söder's statement as "ing bullsh**t" (rough translation), and saying that he saw no problem at all with being both Swedish and Tornedalian. Söder once again doubled down on his original statement when responding to Bucht's comments.

This whole talk about "nations" seems to boil down to nothing more than ethnicity as a defining factor; those who Söder see as a part of the Swedish nation are those who are ethnically Swedish but what meaning does that actually have, perhaps beyond genetic markers which would purely be of scientific interest? If he just defines a Swede as someone who can be considered to be ethnically Swedish, thus meaning that no person with a background which isn't 100% ethnically Swedish could ever be considered Swedish, that's pretty much the textbook definition of racism.

Also, given that the Torne Valley has been a part of Sweden for at the very least 200 years longer than Scania (which Söder comes from), one could argue that any random Tornedalian is far more closer to being Swedish than Björn Söder could ever hope to be, going by his own logic.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on June 21, 2018, 11:57:06 am
If SAP do badly and if the rural/urban trends seen a lot nowadays manifest themselves in Sweden, could we see the solid red north of Sweden start to turn blue or yellow?

That is the region with the least immigrants and refugees, so it shouldn't be fertile ground for SD.

In both the 2010 and 2014 elections the Sweden Democrats saw their largest increases in support in municipalities which had the largest unemployment figures, there were no real connection seen between a large number of immigrants/refugees and increased support for SD, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

That being said, in the north the Social Democratic and union organisations are generally stronger compared to the rest of the country, and class based/tribal voting is still far stronger than down south so I expect S to hold their ground up there, at least in this election. If anything, they should be real worried about losing votes to the Left Party instead, especially in places like Västernorrland where cuts to health care and hospitals by S-led county administrations have had a harsh impact.

So harsh in fact that Stefan Löfven was placed at the top of the Social Democratic list for the Riksdag in Västernorrland because the local party fears a total hammering due to cuts to maternity care at Sollefteå hospital.

SD also suffers up north because they still have so few competent local politicians that have managed to make a name for themselves, and they've also suffered from several defections during the term, as well as "empy chairs", where they've won seats on municipal councils but have been unable to fill them. One such example is from my own home town where they won two seats on the municipal council but both were left vacant from the start. Partly because they only had one (1) candidate on the ballot, and party because he was a resident of another municipality and thus couldn't take his seat. Eventually they managed to fill the seat for a few months or so, until the person they brought in just gave up and left. There are also numerous examples of local SD organisations failing to even present a budget proposal, which is one of the most basic duties that a party in the municipal council has. In the cases they do you end up with situations like in Luleå where the local SD chapter just straight up copied the budget proposal from the Sweden Democrats in Lund. That certainly caused a lot of confusion and laughs among the other parties, as you suddenly had SD council members of a northern town proposing significant investments in rural Scania.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on June 21, 2018, 11:58:47 am
Thank you for your elaborate response. I very much empathize with Silberstein's line of reasoning. The point about SD's background is less relevant to me (though obviously Ekström was a criminal and any foreign Waffen-SS volunteer returning to his country of origin should have been shot upon arrival), but I definitely understand it is painful for Swedish Jews to have their Swedishness questioned.

Using ethnicity as a defining factor does not necessarily mean one has to be 100% Swedish to be considered part of the Swedish nation, I think, and I don't think Söder is arguing this either. However, going into the specifics of this obviously gets extremely problematic, as you don't want to end up on your way to Nuremberg. But the idea of ethnicity being a relevant aspect (though not the only aspect, and not necessarily the decisive aspect) to one's national identity stands, I think.

This discussion does seem to be the consequence of Sweden's immigration policy, as a consequence of which the point where immigrants would be expected to fully integrate into Swedish society has long been passed and a community-based approach is adopted instead. Ordinary people are inevitably going to differentiate between Swedes and "foreigners with a Swedish passport" who do not adhere to Swedish cultural norms at all and might not even self-identify as Swedish. Then the question becomes: where do you draw the line? Who's in and who's out? Pretty pointless to start talking about Jews, Sami and Tornedalians in this context, though.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lord Halifax on June 21, 2018, 01:29:37 pm
If SAP do badly and if the rural/urban trends seen a lot nowadays manifest themselves in Sweden, could we see the solid red north of Sweden start to turn blue or yellow?

That is the region with the least immigrants and refugees, so it shouldn't be fertile ground for SD.

In both the 2010 and 2014 elections the Sweden Democrats saw their largest increases in support in municipalities which had the largest unemployment figures, there were no real connection seen between a large number of immigrants/refugees and increased support for SD, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

I assumed it would be different this time because it's the first election after the 2015 migrant crisis and the growth in SD's support is primarily a result of how that influenced Sweden .


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: FredLindq on June 21, 2018, 02:26:32 pm
MED is liberal-conservative but more fierce and sees them selves as the new and real opposition.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on June 21, 2018, 02:31:16 pm
MED is liberal-conservative but more fierce and sees them selves as the new and real opposition.
They have way fewer likes on Facebook than AfS (11k vs. 23k). Perhaps not a good metric to measure actual support (and I imagine quite some foreigners -- like me -- have liked their page, which will not be the case for MED), but it's almost solely Swedes liking and replying to their posts. It does seem as if there is some momentum here, and I think they might be doing better in the polls than MED too. Though SD's high polling numbers probably hurt AfS.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on June 21, 2018, 03:57:37 pm
Thank you for your elaborate response. I very much empathize with Silberstein's line of reasoning. The point about SD's background is less relevant to me (though obviously Ekström was a criminal and any foreign Waffen-SS volunteer returning to his country of origin should have been shot upon arrival), but I definitely understand it is painful for Swedish Jews to have their Swedishness questioned.

Using ethnicity as a defining factor does not necessarily mean one has to be 100% Swedish to be considered part of the Swedish nation, I think, and I don't think Söder is arguing this either. However, going into the specifics of this obviously gets extremely problematic, as you don't want to end up on your way to Nuremberg. But the idea of ethnicity being a relevant aspect (though not the only aspect, and not necessarily the decisive aspect) to one's national identity stands, I think.

This discussion does seem to be the consequence of Sweden's immigration policy, as a consequence of which the point where immigrants would be expected to fully integrate into Swedish society has long been passed and a community-based approach is adopted instead. Ordinary people are inevitably going to differentiate between Swedes and "foreigners with a Swedish passport" who do not adhere to Swedish cultural norms at all and might not even self-identify as Swedish. Then the question becomes: where do you draw the line? Who's in and who's out? Pretty pointless to start talking about Jews, Sami and Tornedalians in this context, though.

From my point of view this whole talk about Swedishness just seems like a waste of time. Instead of getting bogged down in vague cultural matters which would be incredibly difficult to legislate I just prefer this simple definition:

1) Do you have a Swedish citizenship?
-If yes:
2) Do you feel Swedish?
-If yes:
Then you are Swedish.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Aboa on June 22, 2018, 05:43:09 am
Thank you for your elaborate response. I very much empathize with Silberstein's line of reasoning. The point about SD's background is less relevant to me (though obviously Ekström was a criminal and any foreign Waffen-SS volunteer returning to his country of origin should have been shot upon arrival), but I definitely understand it is painful for Swedish Jews to have their Swedishness questioned.

Using ethnicity as a defining factor does not necessarily mean one has to be 100% Swedish to be considered part of the Swedish nation, I think, and I don't think Söder is arguing this either. However, going into the specifics of this obviously gets extremely problematic, as you don't want to end up on your way to Nuremberg. But the idea of ethnicity being a relevant aspect (though not the only aspect, and not necessarily the decisive aspect) to one's national identity stands, I think.

This discussion does seem to be the consequence of Sweden's immigration policy, as a consequence of which the point where immigrants would be expected to fully integrate into Swedish society has long been passed and a community-based approach is adopted instead. Ordinary people are inevitably going to differentiate between Swedes and "foreigners with a Swedish passport" who do not adhere to Swedish cultural norms at all and might not even self-identify as Swedish. Then the question becomes: where do you draw the line? Who's in and who's out? Pretty pointless to start talking about Jews, Sami and Tornedalians in this context, though.

From my point of view this whole talk about Swedishness just seems like a waste of time. Instead of getting bogged down in vague cultural matters which would be incredibly difficult to legislate I just prefer this simple definition:

1) Do you have a Swedish citizenship?
-If yes:
2) Do you feel Swedish?
-If yes:
Then you are Swedish.

So for example this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axel_Olof_Freudenthal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axel_Olof_Freudenthal) wouldn't be Swedish by your definition.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on June 22, 2018, 06:29:41 am
Well no, he'd clearly be a Finland-Swede and they're a separate minority in their own right. Though a Finland-Swede with a Swedish citizenship who identifies as Swedish would definitely be both Swedish and Finland-Swedish. Just like a Finland-Swede with a Finnish citizenship who identifies as Finnish would be both Finnish and Finland-Swedish.

That's the only definition I can see as remotely reasonable from a legal standpoint.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on June 22, 2018, 08:19:52 am
I don't think this was a debate on legislation (which is also one of the reasons why it was unwise for Söder to speak out about it).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Aboa on June 22, 2018, 02:24:02 pm
Well no, he'd clearly be a Finland-Swede and they're a separate minority in their own right. Though a Finland-Swede with a Swedish citizenship who identifies as Swedish would definitely be both Swedish and Finland-Swedish. Just like a Finland-Swede with a Finnish citizenship who identifies as Finnish would be both Finnish and Finland-Swedish.

That's the only definition I can see as remotely reasonable from a legal standpoint.
Freudenthal didn't identify as Finland-Swede, in fact much of his work was aimed at proving that Finland's Swedes weren't Finns (in ethnic sense) but part of Swedish nation.

To me it seems absurd to mix ethnicity with legal concept of citizenship and to deny someones ethnic identity just because they don't hold certain citizenship.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: megameow on June 23, 2018, 12:48:33 am
The Jewish/Sami issue makes an interesting point: whether you need to be ethnically identical to the majority to be Swedish. Should Swedish identity allow for subcultures within broader Swedish culture? The US's model would probably be one country/overall mainstream culture overlaying a mosaic of smaller subcultures and ethnic identites, all under the American umbrella. Another model, like France, would be all people regardless of ethnicity or background being (forced or otherwise) one national cultural identity, with little variation.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on June 26, 2018, 12:06:50 pm
Red-Green government approval rating:

15% approve
66% disapprove

Top-5 campaign issues for voters:

52% Healthcare
49% Immigration/refugee policy
32% crime
26% integration
25% schools/university/education

Voting intention by gender:

Men

36.4% Sweden Democrats
19.0% Social Democrats
15.7% Moderate Party
  7.8% Left Party
  4.7% Center Party

Women

25.2% Social Democrats
19.8% Sweden Democrats
19.0% Moderate Party
11.0% Left Party
  9.7% Center Party


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JonHawk on June 30, 2018, 01:13:44 am
I know the election is roughly 2 months away... but i still think SD will end up between 20-25%... its whether or not they are the largest or second largest


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on June 30, 2018, 01:17:40 am
I know the election is roughly 2 months away... but i still think SD will end up between 20-25%... its whether or not they are the largest or second largest

I think there's a good enough chance they will slightly win the election, with some 25%.

The Social Democrats slightly behind at 24% or something and the Moderates down a bit more.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on June 30, 2018, 07:37:36 am
Swedish precedent would suggest the government makes up lost ground in the coming weeks, so I think they'll take a narrow first place. That said I wonder if this will ironically hurt the chance of a left government - if people tempted to lend a vote to MP to ensure they don't fall sub-threshold instead park their vote in SAP to stop SD declaring a symbolic "victory", we could see more wasted votes on the Left.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lord Halifax on June 30, 2018, 07:51:05 am
Swedish precedent would suggest the government makes up lost ground in the coming weeks, so I think they'll take a narrow first place.

Why do you expect this election to follow the normal pattern?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on June 30, 2018, 12:35:02 pm
Swedish precedent would suggest the government makes up lost ground in the coming weeks, so I think they'll take a narrow first place. That said I wonder if this will ironically hurt the chance of a left government - if people tempted to lend a vote to MP to ensure they don't fall sub-threshold instead park their vote in SAP to stop SD declaring a symbolic "victory", we could see more wasted votes on the Left.

Ehh ... you expect a government with a 15% approval rating to gain in the last two months ?

More like the opposite.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on June 30, 2018, 01:03:01 pm
Swedish precedent would suggest the government makes up lost ground in the coming weeks, so I think they'll take a narrow first place.

Why do you expect this election to follow the normal pattern?

Naive belief in precedent: I admit it's not much though.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 30, 2018, 01:06:39 pm
So long as you don't confuse tendencies with rules, then precedent is always something to bear in mind. Of course it isn't as if there's much uniformity with Swedish polling at present: different firms are showing strikingly divergent pictures.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on June 30, 2018, 01:21:50 pm
Today some M politician admitted that the "Alliance is dead". Essentially, M and L will be the kingmakers. The red "bloc" -- or whatever is left of it -- might still become bigger than the dead Alliance, but neither will obviously come close to a majority. So M have to decide whether they are willing to form a government dependent on SD from the outside (or dependent on Center and some of the left-wing parties from the outside, which would be a redux of the current situation but with the "right" in power). L have to decide a) whether to cooperate with SD at all and b) whether to have an M-L govt or to support an M govt from the outside. The bigger SD become, the more difficult it will be to ignore them. It could get more messy and complicated if M+L+SD don't have a majority (assuming KD don't reach the threshold).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on June 30, 2018, 01:33:24 pm
Today some M politician admitted that the "Alliance is dead". Essentially, M and L will be the kingmakers. The red "bloc" -- or whatever is left of it -- might still become bigger than the dead Alliance, but neither will obviously come close to a majority. So M have to decide whether they are willing to form a government dependent on SD from the outside (or dependent on Center and some of the left-wing parties from the outside, which would be a redux of the current situation but with the "right" in power). L have to decide a) whether to cooperate with SD at all and b) whether to have an M-L govt or to support an M govt from the outside. The bigger SD become, the more difficult it will be to ignore them. It could get more messy and complicated if M+L+SD don't have a majority (assuming KD don't reach the threshold).

Do you think L will actually be able to wield that much influence on 4-5% of the vote?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on June 30, 2018, 01:45:39 pm
Today some M politician admitted that the "Alliance is dead". Essentially, M and L will be the kingmakers. The red "bloc" -- or whatever is left of it -- might still become bigger than the dead Alliance, but neither will obviously come close to a majority. So M have to decide whether they are willing to form a government dependent on SD from the outside (or dependent on Center and some of the left-wing parties from the outside, which would be a redux of the current situation but with the "right" in power). L have to decide a) whether to cooperate with SD at all and b) whether to have an M-L govt or to support an M govt from the outside. The bigger SD become, the more difficult it will be to ignore them. It could get more messy and complicated if M+L+SD don't have a majority (assuming KD don't reach the threshold).

Do you think L will actually be able to wield that much influence on 4-5% of the vote?
Seems likely that M and SD alone will not have a majority, and assuming KD don't get in, L is the next likeliest party to change its mind on cooperation with SD, especially if a) M do it too and b) SD will not actually be in the government. Though of course it remains to be seen whether they are ready to cross that bridge.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on July 01, 2018, 02:23:33 am
Sex crimes increased 44-times in the past 42 years in Sweden ...

Development of reported sex attack cases in Sweden (1975-2017), according to the state BRA crime statistics:

1975: 500
1990: 1.200
2000: 3.500
2010: 7.000
2016: 20.300
2017: 22.000 (+8% in 1 year)

Among the 22.000 sex attack cases in 2017, there were a total of 7.230 rapes (+10% compared with 2016, when there were 6.567 rapes).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/rape-case-surge-puts-focus-on-crime-as-swedish-election-looms

https://www.thelocal.se/20180118/reported-rapes-in-sweden-up-by-10-percent


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mvd10 on July 01, 2018, 10:19:35 am
Sex crimes increased 44-times in the past 42 years in Sweden ...

Development of reported sex attack cases in Sweden (1975-2017), according to the state BRA crime statistics:

1975: 500
1990: 1.200
2000: 3.500
2010: 7.000
2016: 20.300
2017: 22.000 (+8% in 1 year)

Among the 22.000 sex attack cases in 2017, there were a total of 7.230 rapes (+10% compared with 2016, when there were 6.567 rapes).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/rape-case-surge-puts-focus-on-crime-as-swedish-election-looms

https://www.thelocal.se/20180118/reported-rapes-in-sweden-up-by-10-percent

I do wonder how many (marital) rapes committed by white Christian Swedes weren't reported in the 1970s/1980s because of shame or things like that. Still, a very worrisome development. Is this a huge issue in Swedish politics? When I read right-wing blogs (just for fun, don't judge lol) I always read horror stories about the situation in Swedish cities but is it considered a huge issue in Sweden? Do parties other than SD talk about it?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: PSOL on July 01, 2018, 03:45:48 pm
Sex crimes increased 44-times in the past 42 years in Sweden ...

Development of reported sex attack cases in Sweden (1975-2017), according to the state BRA crime statistics:

1975: 500
1990: 1.200
2000: 3.500
2010: 7.000
2016: 20.300
2017: 22.000 (+8% in 1 year)

Among the 22.000 sex attack cases in 2017, there were a total of 7.230 rapes (+10% compared with 2016, when there were 6.567 rapes).


I do wonder how many (marital) rapes committed by white Christian Swedes weren't reported in the 1970s/1980s because of shame or things like that. Still, a very worrisome development. Is this a huge issue in Swedish politics? When I read right-wing blogs (just for fun, don't judge lol) I always read horror stories about the situation in Swedish cities but is it considered a huge issue in Sweden? Do parties other than SD talk about it?
Hold on, I’ve heard this news before. It is bunk due to Swedish law counting each act as rape, plus more reporting. I believe tying it to American definitions of sex crimes makes it bunk.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on July 01, 2018, 04:06:06 pm
I think it's a mixture of both. It would be naive to deny the influence of immigration on such crimes, but I highly doubt there were only 500 sex attacks in the whole of Sweden in 1975.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: PSOL on July 03, 2018, 01:42:23 pm
Except that line of reported sex crimes goes from an exponential to a gradual increase. It is narrative claiming and just not good reporting.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lord Halifax on July 03, 2018, 04:49:46 pm
Except that line of reported sex crimes goes from an exponential to a gradual increase. It is narrative claiming and just not good reporting.

What are you talking about? The 2010-16 increase is the fastest.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Helsinkian on July 04, 2018, 01:34:19 pm
Sweden Democrats have been accepted into the European Conservatives and Reformists group at the European Parliament. Thus the party moves further toward the mainstream and away from the fringe; it's more difficult to label a sister party of the British Tories as far-right (though I'm sure people will try...).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: PSOL on July 04, 2018, 03:04:58 pm
Except that line of reported sex crimes goes from an exponential to a gradual increase. It is narrative claiming and just not good reporting.

What are you talking about? The 2010-16 increase is the fastest.
I’m talking about in relation to the 1976 statistical note, if accounted then for Swedish law it is a huge increase, but not as much if counted for if you look at the American Metric, which is what Branson posted. Still a terrible thing that must be dealt with, no question. But using the Swedish data doesn’t look at how things are accounted for, each individual act of rape is recorded, while the American law accounts for more the perpetrator with time lapses. Just giving raw data without informing about Swedish law is misleading and that is what is wrong with that. So yes but my point still stands about needing subtext.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on July 04, 2018, 04:38:20 pm
Sweden Democrats have been accepted into the European Conservatives and Reformists group at the European Parliament. Thus the party moves further toward the mainstream and away from the fringe; it's more difficult to label a sister party of the British Tories as far-right (though I'm sure people will try...).
I agree with your main point. However, the Tories will be out, and ECR will probably be PiS-led from next year onwards, meaning the group will move to the right: the Tories were always the ones keeping it from becoming openly nationalist.

From a domestic perspective this is a very smart move by SD, as the association with EFDD could be an argument for other parties to portray them as extreme, and Swedes don't want to rock the boat. I don't think SD's position on the EU has actually changed, though.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on July 04, 2018, 04:51:33 pm
I can't see it swinging many votes though, there are like what, 6 people in the whole of Sweden who even know what a European Parliamentary group is?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: EPG on July 04, 2018, 05:14:52 pm
I can't see it swinging many votes though, there are like what, 6 people in the whole of Sweden who even know what a European Parliamentary group is?

Everyone who knows the difference between ECR, EFDD and ENF writes on here.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 04, 2018, 06:08:20 pm
I can't see it swinging many votes though, there are like what, 6 people in the whole of Sweden who even know what a European Parliamentary group is?

Everyone who knows the difference between ECR, EFDD and ENF writes on here.


Probably the biggest and the most important from the point of view of EU is that ECR is not anti-EU group and they officially confirm their commitment to the EU idea, they just want a little bit less of that EU. EFDD and ENF group parties which are eurosceptic or even hostile to the idea of the EU. Differences between EFDD and ENF are mainly based on their member parties - they are both loose groupings without any strong institutional base - both of them might be stronger after 2019 or do not exist after 2019.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: EPG on July 04, 2018, 06:29:18 pm
Agreed, that's the rhetoric - but the main ECR party is the only party ever to call an EU exit referendum and now almost fully supports EU exit. It's a matter of time and circumstance. PiS probably couldn't conceivably call and win an EU exit referendum, the circumstances aren't there in Poland, but Sweden Democrats could.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on July 05, 2018, 04:18:52 am
Agreed, that's the rhetoric - but the main ECR party is the only party ever to call an EU exit referendum and now almost fully supports EU exit. It's a matter of time and circumstance. PiS probably couldn't conceivably call and win an EU exit referendum, the circumstances aren't there in Poland, but Sweden Democrats could.
You don't know what you are talking about. The vast majority of the Swedes do not want to leave the EU, and neither do SD. If SD were to support Swexit and made this an important campaign theme, they would lose a lot of votes compared to the current polls.

Meanwhile, AfS have launched their campaign #enhalvmiljon, indicating the number of immigrants (half a million) they want out at the very least. 88.000 (makes you think) of them would be immigrants with Swedish citizenship.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: King Francis I on July 05, 2018, 12:07:33 pm
I wouldn't be surprised if SD ends up joining the government.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on July 05, 2018, 01:02:42 pm
I wouldn't be surprised if SD ends up joining the government.

Word is the Moderates and the Centre Party have openly discussed it and seem to be leaving the door open.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: FredLindq on July 05, 2018, 02:21:16 pm
Neither the Moderates and absoloutley not the Centre party has opened that door. The former M party leader Anna Kinberg Batra tried to open that door, M then droped sharply in the opinion polls and Anna resigned.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: EPG on July 05, 2018, 02:57:24 pm
Agreed, that's the rhetoric - but the main ECR party is the only party ever to call an EU exit referendum and now almost fully supports EU exit. It's a matter of time and circumstance. PiS probably couldn't conceivably call and win an EU exit referendum, the circumstances aren't there in Poland, but Sweden Democrats could.
You don't know what you are talking about. The vast majority of the Swedes do not want to leave the EU, and neither do SD. If SD were to support Swexit and made this an important campaign theme, they would lose a lot of votes compared to the current polls.

Whatever, some people said the same about the UK. It's not likely but it might happen in Sweden, not tomorrow yes, not most likely to leave next yes, but it's foolish to exclude EU exits. It is a net payer, it has a lot of voters with baseline ideological hostility to the EU, and it gains relatively little from the common monetary policy or common foreign policy. Most importantly, trust in the EU and its institutions is low compared to national institutions. Sweden is a pretty good country and in a clash between a SD national government and the EU, people would take both sides. Whereas in Poland it's not likely and it won't happen - people would overthrow the government before leaving the EU.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mileslunn on July 06, 2018, 09:57:50 pm
Any chance of a Swedexit referendum if the Sweden Democrats do better than expected.  Yes risky, but considering how close the British one was and how things haven't been going great, it might be a way to shut down the issue.  Other idea perhaps is for Sweden to remain in the EU, but leave the Scheghen Agreement (UK and Ireland are not part of it) and re-establish border controls although not sure what the public attitude is on this. 

If Sweden Democrats come in first, is convention they get first chance to try and form government (Off course they will fail) or does the king speak with all the parties and give the mandate to whomever he feels is most likely to form one as opposed to the largest party?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: FredLindq on July 07, 2018, 02:38:20 pm
No. The Swedes are still supporting EU-membership 52 for and 18 against according to SCB. I do not think that SD will push for a refrendum they know they will loose.

Its the speaker who gives the mission to form the guvernment and he or she will give it to the party in the largedt coaliton. But first the current guvernment needs to fall and that is very possible.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mileslunn on July 07, 2018, 02:47:05 pm
No. The Swedes are still supporting EU-membership 52 for and 18 against according to SCB. I do not think that SD will push for a refrendum they know they will loose.

Its the speaker who gives the mission to form the guvernment and he or she will give it to the party in the largedt coaliton. But first the current guvernment needs to fall and that is very possible.


I thought Eurosceptism was quite strong in Sweden?  Has Brexit led to a strong shift in the idea being a bad one as I heard in Denmark support for leaving EU dropped dramatically after Brexit negotiations got under way.  The odd thing is Brexit for all its woes hasn't been as bad as opponents said it would be, but it hasn't been smooth either like the supporters claimed.  I guess having someone drive around in a bus saying we send so much to the EU each week, lets spend on health care won't work as the 350 million pound bus was called out as a lie afterwards.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: FredLindq on July 07, 2018, 03:15:47 pm
In 2001 it was 40-40 and before that more thought EU was a bad thing. The gap increseaed to 2010. The it has been stable. Sweden has to much to loose from leaving. All major companies are international.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mileslunn on July 07, 2018, 11:01:55 pm
You mean saying we see send 600 million SEK to Brussels every week lets spend it on health care instead (Adjusting for exchange rate and population) wouldn't work like the 350 million pound bus Boris Johnson rode around in.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: FredLindq on July 08, 2018, 06:31:46 am
Sweden has to much to loose. The Swedish export industry is strongly dependent on developments in Europe. In fact, almost three quarters of Sweden's goods exports go to Europe.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mileslunn on July 08, 2018, 01:08:49 pm
Sweden has to much to loose. The Swedish export industry is strongly dependent on developments in Europe. In fact, almost three quarters of Sweden's goods exports go to Europe.

True enough. Does Sweden by chance have any papers like the Daily Mail, Express, or Sun which regularly engage in EU bashing (as I think that had an influence in UK so if you lack those might explain difference). Also what are the numbers like for those migrating from other EU member states as I believe with English being the most widely spoken foreign language (Regardless of legalities tough to live somewhere if you don't speak the language) so UK got an unusually high number of people from elsewhere in the EU thus leading to Brexit. If numbers smaller probably less of an issue.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: FredLindq on July 09, 2018, 02:37:57 am
The two largest "tabloids" i.e. evening papers are 1) Aftonbladet, socialdemocratic (very close to the party, almost like Pravda) and 2) Expressen, liberal

Although one off the largest morning papers Göteborgs-Posten has recently changed from social liberal to more conservative. I do not think that they will start bashing EU tough.

Even the Sweden Democrats are not completely for leaving the EU. It´s economic spokesperson Oscar Sjöstedt a few days ago wrote an article in Swedens largest business daily newspaper.


"DEBATE. It caused resurrection when Jimmie Åkesson said in Di that Sweden should leave the EU. The fact that the Swedish Democrats should act as endorsers to the outside world is nothing but horror propaganda from an increasingly desperate bourgeoisie, writes Oscar Sjöstedt, economics spokesman (SD).

The question of a Swedish EU membership is not on the table during a possible government debate this fall. That question shall not be decided by temporary parliamentary majority but shall be subject to a referendum. Therefore, the issue is also not central to this year's constituency, but since it has been woken up, I would like to take this opportunity to reflect on how we look at the matter.

Free trade and transparency in goods, services, capital and labor are favorable to Swedish industry. We want to work for more cooperation with countries both within and outside Europe to handle environmental issues, fight international crime and terrorism. The fact that the Swedish Democrats should act for endurance against the outside world is nothing but horror propaganda from an increasingly desperate bourgeoisie."


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on July 09, 2018, 07:46:23 am
SD does want to hold a referendum, though, right? A sort of "Let's settle this once and for all"?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on July 09, 2018, 08:05:38 am
It is probably a mistake to compare current-day rape stats to ones in the 70s. The classification has changed since then for one thing.

It is however true that there has been a strong increase in sex crime in the last few years, especially for certain types (like gangrape) and it's also been shown that this is attributable to immigration (because nearly all the perpetrators are immigrants). It's an issue a lot of people care about, obviously and I suspect the general increase in crime in Sweden is driving a lot of SD's support.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on July 19, 2018, 05:15:42 am
Massive wildfires all over Sweden right now ...

Temps have been around 30°C or higher for several weeks now (also in Finland and Russia) and even in the Arctic.

But it turns out that even though 70% of Sweden is covered with forests, they hardly have any planes to combat wildfires with water.

Hopefully Austria will send some water bombers to Sweden soon to help out.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 19, 2018, 06:32:34 am
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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on July 19, 2018, 04:21:50 pm
Some "interesting" comments by FI candidate Oldoz Javidi, who thinks Israel should be ethnically cleansed of Jews, who, according to her, should move to the U.S. A very "anti-racist" party indeed ::) Perhaps they can merge with an organization with the same opinion of Jews. Nordic Resistance comes to mind. FI might come a little closer to reaching the electoral threshold if they do so.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on July 19, 2018, 05:13:40 pm
Some "interesting" comments by FI candidate Oldoz Javidi, who thinks Israel should be ethnically cleansed of Jews, who, according to her, should move to the U.S. A very "anti-racist" party indeed ::) Perhaps they can merge with an organization with the same opinion of Jews. Nordic Resistance comes to mind. FI might come a little closer to reaching the electoral threshold if they do so.

I guess Sweden actually does have literal feminazis XD


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on July 21, 2018, 03:51:14 pm
New YouGov poll has the traditional parties S and M imploding and reaching all-time-lows (and the Social Democrats coalition partners, the Greens, are still below the 4% threshold):

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The S+Green government is very unpopular already and now even has to explain to voters why they are shoving billions of kronas down the throats of immigrants and trying to integrate them, while at the same time having purchased no (= zero) aircraft to combat the virulent wildfires in the country. There have been wildfires already in 2014, but the Red-Green government didn't buy anything in that regard.

It's better to spend the money on immigrants from Africa and the Middle-East of course ... ::)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on July 30, 2018, 03:28:51 pm
Well no, he'd clearly be a Finland-Swede and they're a separate minority in their own right. Though a Finland-Swede with a Swedish citizenship who identifies as Swedish would definitely be both Swedish and Finland-Swedish. Just like a Finland-Swede with a Finnish citizenship who identifies as Finnish would be both Finnish and Finland-Swedish.

That's the only definition I can see as remotely reasonable from a legal standpoint.
Freudenthal didn't identify as Finland-Swede, in fact much of his work was aimed at proving that Finland's Swedes weren't Finns (in ethnic sense) but part of Swedish nation.

To me it seems absurd to mix ethnicity with legal concept of citizenship and to deny someones ethnic identity just because they don't hold certain citizenship.

(Apologies for the late reply)

Except I'm not trying to deny someone's ethnic identity, I was just making a point that an elected official and representative of Sweden (in his role as Deputy Speaker) like Björn Söder (who's statements the discussion was about) should not be concerned with any other definition of Swedishness than the purely legal one. Basing public policy on any vague definition beyond that is pure lunacy in my book, something which numerous politicians' obsessions with phrenology in the early parts of the 20th century definitively proved.

Other than that people are certainly free to identify as Swedish on an individual level if they wish to do so, even if they don't have a Swedish citizenship. For that matter Swedish citizens are certainly free to not identify as Swedish either, after all there are definitely several Sami and members of other minorities who feel that way, but again the point is that it is up to them alone to decide whether or not they identify as Swedish; not Björn Söder or anyone else.

The two largest "tabloids" i.e. evening papers are 1) Aftonbladet, socialdemocratic (very close to the party, almost like Pravda) and 2) Expressen, liberal

Oh come on, Aftonbladet is no more of a Pravda to the Social Democrats than Expressen is to the Liberals or Svenska Dagbladet is to the Moderates. While LO may still own a tiny minority share of Aftonbladet, to insinuate that they have any direct control over the editorial process or any influence over the news published whilst comparing them to a party mouthpiece accomplishes nothing but showing off your own partisanship.

Some "interesting" comments by FI candidate Oldoz Javidi, who thinks Israel should be ethnically cleansed of Jews, who, according to her, should move to the U.S. A very "anti-racist" party indeed ::) Perhaps they can merge with an organization with the same opinion of Jews. Nordic Resistance comes to mind. FI might come a little closer to reaching the electoral threshold if they do so.

Fortunately she withdrew her candidacy after FI's leadership came out against her and urged her to step down. Even so I don't suspect that this will do much damage to FI either; they're so far down in the polls already that they'd be lucky to just hold on to their base. I'm guessing that they'll end up somewhere around 1% on election day.

The S+Green government is very unpopular already and now even has to explain to voters why they are shoving billions of kronas down the throats of immigrants and trying to integrate them, while at the same time having purchased no (= zero) aircraft to combat the virulent wildfires in the country. There have been wildfires already in 2014, but the Red-Green government didn't buy anything in that regard.

It's better to spend the money on immigrants from Africa and the Middle-East of course ... ::)

Would you be so kind as to link to the parliamentary vote where MPs decided to cut back on emergency services in order to pay for immigration? If unable to do so, could you kindly point to some evidence of political parties pledging to invest more in emergency services rather than follow ideological commitments to either cut taxes or spend more on healthcare and aid to the unemployed, prior to the spike in migration in 2015?

Just because a certain cost could've been lower doesn't mean that politicians would've prioritized things that wouldn't have had a lot of political payoff at the time, compared to the ideological committments they were elected on. Difficult concept to grasp, I know. ::)

Though regarding aircraft for fighting fires, Sweden actually rented two such planes during the 1990s whilst evaluating them, but the investigator came to the conclusion that buying them and maintaining them on a regular basis would come at too high a cost to justify as major forest fires in Sweden were (and still are) relatively rare. Instead it was considered more cost effective to rely on European partners in the event of forest fires of that size. Not unreasonable considering that in the 2010s only this year and 2014 have had fires of such a magnitude that planes were required. However now the idea of Sweden, Norway and Finland jointly buying and maintaining such planes have been raised, most recently by the leaders of the three countries' Green parties, and that idea may be seen as more appealing by the penny pinchers at the Ministry of Finance.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on August 04, 2018, 12:31:41 am
The new Sentio poll still has the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) ahead, but also shows strong gains for the far-left Left Party (V):

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on August 04, 2018, 12:44:51 am
Man if the liberals miss the threshold and the greens make it it would be a bad day for the alliance


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on August 04, 2018, 06:57:38 am
Good to see that most of Center's virtual gains have evaporated. Also interesting - though not in a positive sense - that AfS could be around 1% only. This seems to be going nowhere.

Why is V gaining so much? Something with the fires?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on August 04, 2018, 06:59:52 am
Good to see that most of Center's virtual gains have evaporated. Also interesting - though not in a positive sense - that AfS could be around 1% only. This seems to be going nowhere.

Why is V gaining so much? Something with the fires?

AfS ... the Swedish version of our FLÖ-dwarfs (0.2% in the 2017 election vs. 26% for the FPÖ).

As for Vs strong performance in polls recently: I think it has to do with the massive unpopularity of the Red-Green government in Sweden.

Many of their disappointed voters from 2014 are now opting for the more radical fringes. See Austria in 2016 during the presidential election's first round.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on August 04, 2018, 07:00:58 am
It's crazy that there is still such a huge difference between online and phone polling, I mean, someone is going to end up with egg on their face


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on August 04, 2018, 07:04:58 am
It's crazy that there is still such a huge difference between online and phone polling, I mean, someone is going to end up with egg on their face

I'm 80% sure it will be the telephone pollsters who will end up with egg on their face ...

The extreme SD will do well, the extreme Left will do well.

All the establishment+government parties will face an utter disaster.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on August 05, 2018, 04:47:43 am
Here's a pretty useful image from pollofpolls.se

It showcases the systematic overestimation or underestimation of several parties from various pollsters, in comparison to the polling average.
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Good to see that most of Center's virtual gains have evaporated. Also interesting - though not in a positive sense - that AfS could be around 1% only. This seems to be going nowhere.

Why is V gaining so much? Something with the fires?

V has been slowly ticking upwards for several months now, due to various factors. Partly its due to the drop in the support for the Social Democrats, with the gains really taking off when S presented the strict immigration policy the party would run on back in early May. The failure of FI to take off has also mainly benefited V. However the party has been gaining slowly for the past few years, in thanks to the benefitial position of being an opposition party which can criticize the government, while at the same time negotiating the budget with the government and getting influence over policy.

V has been pretty good strategists in these negotiations as well, by pushing for some things which may not be that expensive (benefits for glasses for children, free public transport for teens during the summer, etc) but are easily understood by voters and easy to communicate for the party. They've been pretty good at taking credit for all the good, popular things in the budgets, whilst criticizing S and MP for the bad things and for saying no to their demands of higher taxes for the very rich.

Jonas Sjöstedt is also pretty charismatic by Swedish standards, coming across as a very sympathetic and likable person in interviews and TV appearances. He's definitely one of the best performing party leaders in debates as well, if not the best at times, which doesn't hurt either.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on August 05, 2018, 01:06:07 pm
Do V aim to participate in government one day?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on August 05, 2018, 05:55:00 pm
Do V aim to participate in government one day?

They definitely wish to participate in the government nowadays. Of course back in their communist days they weren't interested and even had it as official policy never to bring down a Social Democratic government even though the Social Democrats refused to negotiate with them over any policy matter, simply because the alternative was considered worse.

This started to change in the 1980s as the party moved in a more Eurocommunist direction, with the party changing its stance in practice for the first time in 1990 when they voted down the Carlsson government's "crisis package" meant to cool down the then-overheated Swedish economy with measures including wage freezes and a temporary ban on strikes which the Left couldn't stomach. Other measures in the package also angered the right, so this marked the first time ever that V (or Vpk as it was known back then) had voted to bring down a Social Democratic government together with the right.

After the 1994 election after they had dropped the communism from their name and their constitution, they got to participate in budget negotiations for the first time. Even though S dropped them for C later in the term, the dissatisfaction with the S government's budget cuts propelled them to their best result ever, with 12% of the vote in the 1998 election. Even so, afterwards there was never any talk of joining the government and the party quite happily settled for influence over the budget and other bills, knowing that their votes would be required in cases where the right was united and S would have to negotiate. The deal with S got a little closer after the 2002 election, though mostly as a result of demands from the Greens. When S were unwilling to give the Greens cabinet seats, they reached a deal wherein Green advisors would be given positions within the S government, and V demanded the same deal but were never a driving force in those negotiations.

The party's attitude to participating in a government changed a lot during the following years, with it at least being discussed during the 2006 election, and when the Social Democrats and the Greens formed an alliance in 2008 Lars Ohly and V were quick to go out and criticize them and demand to be included. Which they eventually were because of internal left-flank pressure within the Social Democrats against Mona Sahlin, demanding their inclusion. Of course the Red-Green coalition were unsuccessful in the 2010 election, but it opened the floodgates and now V are openly talking about participating in a government. Sjöstedt famously held a press conference whilst visibly angry and upset after the 2014 election when Stefan Löfven had point blank told him that they would not get cabinet seats. That year, for the first time ever, they didn't vote for a Social Democratic candidate for PM in parliament, but rather chose to abstain.

This election they're not placing as much emphasis on participating in government as they did in 2014, but it's no question that they want to do so. However the experience that they've seen the Greens undergo in government may have made them a little more wary, but under the right circumstances they would definitely go for it. Jonas Sjöstedt has even said that they would be willing to participate in (or work with) a government which included the Centre or Liberal parties, something which would be considered a complete impossibility only 10 years ago.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Kosmos on August 09, 2018, 04:28:37 pm
How the hell is this election going to end in anything but a deadlock? I don't see either the Moderates' Alliance or Lofven's government gaining a majority given Sweden Democrats' strength.

Where do we end up?

In 2014 the mainstream parties (Alliance + S bloc) signed an agreement which would let the leader of the largest bloc be PM while the other bloc abstains on budgets and other important stuff. Does that agreement still stand?

That agreement did not last even a full year. It was very unpopular with centre-right voters, especially M and KD voters, and it was abandoned after KD delegates voted against it at their party conference in 2015.

Basically, M and KD wants to take power with passive SD support regardless of what bloc becomes the biggest. C and L, who have a bigger aversion to SD, have said that they can accept this if the centre-right is the biggest bloc (this would be somewhat similar to the 2010-2014 period, except with a much stronger SD obviously). However, if the left become the biggest bloc they seem to lean towards some form of centrist government with the Social democrats, although nobody knows for sure. C in particular is very economically to the right these days, so cooperation with S is a bit difficult to imagine.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Helsinkian on August 14, 2018, 04:38:21 am
A group of "youths" torched dozens of cars in Gothenburg and other cities. At some places these "youths" also threw rocks at the firefighters.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Ethelberth on August 14, 2018, 06:42:18 am
Some parties seem to have two types of "sedlar", regional and local. How the seats are distributed between them?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on August 19, 2018, 01:57:07 pm
Less than convincing effort from Isabella Lövin in SVT's program with Miljöpartiet. The moderators have had to repeat questions several times, because Lövin talks in boring platitudes without answering questions. She is completely without charisma, and doesn't even seem that convincing on policy details.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: KingSweden on August 19, 2018, 06:11:07 pm
Less than convincing effort from Isabella Lövin in SVT's program with Miljöpartiet. The moderators have had to repeat questions several times, because Lövin talks in boring platitudes without answering questions. She is completely without charisma, and doesn't even seem that convincing on policy details.

Is she the one who said people who shop in bulk should be hit with tax penalties?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on August 20, 2018, 08:59:10 am
Less than convincing effort from Isabella Lövin in SVT's program with Miljöpartiet. The moderators have had to repeat questions several times, because Lövin talks in boring platitudes without answering questions. She is completely without charisma, and doesn't even seem that convincing on policy details.

Is she the one who said people who shop in bulk should be hit with tax penalties?

You're referring to their traffic policy spokesperson Karin Svensson-Smith. And I don't Think that was exactly what was proposed it had to do with making parking by outlets and large shopping malls more expensive.

More crazy is probably her proposal now to replace half of Sweden's biggest highway with a railroad.

There are 3 elections concurrently in September, municipal, regional and national. So most parties will have 3 different lists at any given place.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Ethelberth on August 20, 2018, 09:42:48 am
I mean situation of Centre party, one for realm, one for region, in parlamentary elections.

e.g.

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valsedlar/R/rvalkrets/07/valsedlar.html

It is funny, that you can swear in the election ticket (look at Skåne party)
.



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on August 20, 2018, 12:48:30 pm

It is funny, that you can swear in the election ticket (look at Skåne party)

Whatever you think of the Skåne party otherwise, you have to give them credit for creativity when it comes to their election list.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on August 20, 2018, 12:55:23 pm
BTW, realized that no-one answered your question Ethelberth.

Most parties have a constituency list for their party (with local candidates to parliament) but some also have a national list. This first started to become a thing at the 2010 election (I think) when the moderates did it. The idea is that the national list can be used anywhere in the country for example by people who want to vote for the party leader but doesn't live in that person's constituency and by expats that vote from abroad.

As far as I know there is no actual limit to how many different lists you can register for a single party, but at the local and regional level some parties will also have lists with only young candidates or old candidates for example. 


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on August 21, 2018, 05:22:12 pm
I saw that AfS are telling their supporters to write in their party name on the ballot. I assume this means they didn't manage to get enough signatures to have official ballots for their party? (I know how the Swedish system of picking ballots of every party works)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: King Francis I on August 21, 2018, 05:38:16 pm
Most likely coalition?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: freefair on August 21, 2018, 05:57:23 pm
According to the latest Sentio poll, a Social Democrat-Green-Left-Centre coalition would have a majority. It could work, However I don't know if that would be compatible with Centre's current economic platform.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on August 21, 2018, 06:27:28 pm
According to the latest Sentio poll, a Social Democrat-Green-Left-Centre coalition would have a majority. It could work, However I don't know if that would be compatible with Centre's current economic platform.


Wouldn't that probably just lead to the current Social Democrat-Green government going on, but with both Left and Centre external support?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on August 22, 2018, 06:59:38 am
Also, apparently today a news article came out saying that 58% of all rapes in Sweden are made by first generation inmigrants. 40% by inmigrants from Africa and the Middle East

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/granskning/ug/ny-kartlaggning-av-valdtaktsdomar-58-procent-av-de-domda-fodda-utomlands

I don't think this is particularly surprising but still, news articles like this probably help SD a lot I guess?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on August 22, 2018, 09:06:25 am
Speaking of which, it looks as if the SD bubble is bursting? That Sentio poll had them back behind SAP. For the first time since May as far as I can tell


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Hydera on August 22, 2018, 11:28:37 am
Speaking of which, it looks as if the SD bubble is bursting? That Sentio poll had them back behind SAP. For the first time since May as far as I can tell

Its bursting because SD is calling for an EU exit referendum and despite initial polls showing a drop in support because the idea is very unpopular in Sweden, he's continued to campaign on it. I guess he realized that even if he somehow outpaced the Social Democrats it would be meaningless since he will not be able to form any coalition. My guess is that rather than focusing on getting the first place he wants to build a long term euroskeptic movement which is dumb considering the problems that the UK have been getting since their referendum result.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on August 22, 2018, 02:45:20 pm
Speaking of which, it looks as if the SD bubble is bursting? That Sentio poll had them back behind SAP. For the first time since May as far as I can tell

Its bursting because SD is calling for an EU exit referendum and despite initial polls showing a drop in support because the idea is very unpopular in Sweden, he's continued to campaign on it. I guess he realized that even if he somehow outpaced the Social Democrats it would be meaningless since he will not be able to form any coalition. My guess is that rather than focusing on getting the first place he wants to build a long term euroskeptic movement which is dumb considering the problems that the UK have been getting since their referendum result.

I'm sorry, but WHAT?

SD's campaign is not focusing on leaving the European Union. Sure the party is officially for leaving the EU, which they always has been, but it's not something they actively campaign on. Åkesson said in June that he wants a referendum in the near future, but if that was the reason for their decline, they'd have started declining two months ago, not now when everybody has forgotten about it.

And the idea that Åkesson is trying to loose support on purpose is probably one of the most silly things I've read on Atlas, and that is saying something.

The reason they've dropped slightly is much more likely the result of that they've had a pretty silent campaign so far and that people are focusing more on who should be prime minister and that some of their voters thus turn to M and KD to ensure that Stefan Löfven is given the boot. The fact that they are climate change deniers when the environment has become the second most important issue   is also a much more likely reason.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Kosmos on August 23, 2018, 02:41:30 pm
SD will do very well in the election, no doubt. But it does seem like they peaked a little too early.

Either way, this shall be interesting to follow.



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on August 23, 2018, 05:52:54 pm
Another vague comment on polling, but there does seem to be a theme of SD and SAP underperforming with younger voters; and C plus the smaller left wing parties overperforming. Not surprising of course, but it does contrast with what other people have said in this thread about SD allegedly doing well with the youngs


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Hifly on August 24, 2018, 01:47:16 am
Another vague comment on polling, but there does seem to be a theme of SD and SAP underperforming with younger voters; and C plus the smaller left wing parties overperforming. Not surprising of course, but it does contrast with what other people have said in this thread about SD allegedly doing well with the youngs

It contrasts with your idea of the existential crisis of the centre-right, as the age profile of Social Democrats is distinctively old, moreso than their main opposition.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on August 24, 2018, 08:59:15 am
SD used to do well among younger voters but have gained a lot among older voters while I Think the current Young are more progressive. SAP is doing horribly outside of senior voters.


As regards AfS a new party is responsible for Printing and distributing their own ballots so they are unlikely to have enough party activists to get ballots to every polling station. Therefore you encourage people to use blank ballots which are Always made available.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Helsinkian on August 24, 2018, 12:25:33 pm
This voting method is ridiculous. You basically have to take all the parties' ballots to the booth if you want to make sure no-one knows how you voted.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on August 24, 2018, 12:36:57 pm
This voting method is ridiculous. You basically have to take all the parties' ballots to the booth if you want to make sure no-one knows how you voted.

France has a similar system iirc.

So do The Gambia, but they use marbles, which is a cute idea.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on August 24, 2018, 01:43:49 pm
This voting method is ridiculous. You basically have to take all the parties' ballots to the booth if you want to make sure no-one knows how you voted.

Same here in Spain except it's even worse since large parties can afford to send ballots to every home so in the end a lot of people simply don't bother with small parties


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Kosmos on August 24, 2018, 07:09:23 pm
The most noteworthy development right now, IMO, is a relative surge in support for the Christian Democrats during the election campaign. The party has consistently polled badly in the last few years, sometimes under 3%, and speculation has been rife that they would be leaving parliament after this election. But in the last couple of weeks their numbers have improved; in two polls released on friday, KD is well above 4%. Much of this is attributed to a debate held on 14th August in which party leader Ebba Busch Thor did well was was declared the winner by some. She has been consistently aknowledged as being charismatic and a good debater since she took over the party in 2015, but up until now this has not helped their electoral fortunes. Until perhaps now, that is.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on August 25, 2018, 02:05:01 am
I'm currently learning Swedish ... :)

Jag heter Tender och jag är från Österrike. Jag talar fortfarande dåligt svenska. Det är tidigt.

:( :P

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That will add to my Standard-German skills (my native language is Pinzgauerisch), English skills and Italian skills.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on August 25, 2018, 11:02:06 am
So let's get this straight one more time. The impression that I had, but I'm not sure if this is correct, is that if M+SD+KD+L = >50% of seats, an M minority government could be formed, sustained from the outside by L, KD and SD (in the sense that they wouldn't vote against the budget), and that M would take into account the policy preferences of these other parties. I realize that L and SD don't exactly like each other, but they don't have to be in a coalition with each other, they just need to tolerate the M govt.

If, however, these parties do not receive a majority... what happens? Does S get the initiative to form a government? How would that even work, if they would have to rely on both C and V? I realize this is unchartered territory, but I'm just thinking of the most likely course of action. How do Swedish analysts view this?

Also still astounded at the voting method in Sweden. Does nobody raise any environmental concerns with printing all these party-based ballots that are not going to be used? I really don't understand why they don't just have one ballot and let people tick a box to vote. I'm glad we do not use this system in the Netherlands - it would require half a rainforest to print the ballots with our number of parties.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Heat on August 25, 2018, 12:39:28 pm
The most noteworthy development right now, IMO, is a relative surge in support for the Christian Democrats during the election campaign. The party has consistently polled badly in the last few years, sometimes under 3%, and speculation has been rife that they would be leaving parliament after this election. But in the last couple of weeks their numbers have improved; in two polls released on friday, KD is well above 4%. Much of this is attributed to a debate held on 14th August in which party leader Ebba Busch Thor did well was was declared the winner by some. She has been consistently aknowledged as being charismatic and a good debater since she took over the party in 2015, but up until now this has not helped their electoral fortunes. Until perhaps now, that is.
The Greens have gone up a bit too and are now more securely above 4% - was this also to do with the debate?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on August 25, 2018, 12:56:05 pm
Sorry if these questions have been addressed recently, but:

1. Why are SD and M falling?
2. Why are SAP rising?
3. Why are KD rising (above the threshold finally, I might add)?
4. Am I right to assume that a left-leaning government is more of a possibility than any other time within recent months?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Oliver on August 25, 2018, 04:59:11 pm
Where can I find any information about the new municipal electoral system in Sweden?

They have introduced a 2% or 3% electoral threshold for municipal council elections.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on August 25, 2018, 05:12:48 pm
So let's get this straight one more time. The impression that I had, but I'm not sure if this is correct, is that if M+SD+KD+L = >50% of seats, an M minority government could be formed, sustained from the outside by L, KD and SD (in the sense that they wouldn't vote against the budget), and that M would take into account the policy preferences of these other parties. I realize that L and SD don't exactly like each other, but they don't have to be in a coalition with each other, they just need to tolerate the M govt.

If, however, these parties do not receive a majority... what happens? Does S get the initiative to form a government? How would that even work, if they would have to rely on both C and V? I realize this is unchartered territory, but I'm just thinking of the most likely course of action. How do Swedish analysts view this?

Also still astounded at the voting method in Sweden. Does nobody raise any environmental concerns with printing all these party-based ballots that are not going to be used? I really don't understand why they don't just have one ballot and let people tick a box to vote. I'm glad we do not use this system in the Netherlands - it would require half a rainforest to print the ballots with our number of parties.

So far, the Liberals are as clear as the Centre Party in rejecting a government based in anyway on the SD. The Moderates and Christian Democrats are slightly less hostile. Kristersson says the Moderates won't govern with or negotiate with Sweden Democrats, so he doesn't reject governing on their support. Busch Thor said the Christian Democrats could talk to Sweden Democrats, but not negotiate with them until the party was cleaned up (in terms of MPs deemed over the line). So theoretically a M-KD government supported by SD could be an option. But even in Sentio and YouGov polls, this majority rarely materializes. And even if it did, many in M and KD would still much prefer to go for some kind of Alliance government or even a cross-bloc government.

Most if not all of the Swedish parties would prefer to keep on pretending that the Sweden Democrats does not exist, and then let the biggest bloc between the Red-Greens and the Alliance govern, while the other bloc pretends to be in opposition. However, to their horror, the Alliance parties, KD and M in particular, realized that this was not really popular among members or voters. In the reverse scenario, Kristersson talks like he hopes that an Alliance government could rely on the Red Bloc not joining with SD to vote down his government. It is probably possible this could happen, but with Social Democrats putting all their focus on rejecting tax cuts and increasing welfare spending, they could hardly let an Allianse goverment rule without ensuring its wings were completely clipped. So there is probably a need for a more formalized cooperation or even coalition across the blocs this time. The Liberals talk positively about allowing a S-M government to be put in place. These three parties are close to a majority in the polling average and could perhaps be allowed by one additional small party. The distance between the two big parties economically seem so big that such a coalition would be painful.

You can see the most likely government according to Unibet below. Due to the economic difference between the two blocs, I think direct government cooperation across the blocs is less likely than (parts of) one bloc allowing the other bloc to govern in a very restricted way. What that restricted government would look like is hard to predict and somewhat depends on the election result. Allianse parties might demand a Social Democrat minority government where the "extreme" Greens and Left Party are kept away from government. The Social Democrats might not want to throw out any of the Allianse parties in particular, but would insist on very centrist budgets to allow such a government.

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Kosmos on August 25, 2018, 06:41:14 pm
The most noteworthy development right now, IMO, is a relative surge in support for the Christian Democrats during the election campaign. The party has consistently polled badly in the last few years, sometimes under 3%, and speculation has been rife that they would be leaving parliament after this election. But in the last couple of weeks their numbers have improved; in two polls released on friday, KD is well above 4%. Much of this is attributed to a debate held on 14th August in which party leader Ebba Busch Thor did well was was declared the winner by some. She has been consistently aknowledged as being charismatic and a good debater since she took over the party in 2015, but up until now this has not helped their electoral fortunes. Until perhaps now, that is.
The Greens have gone up a bit too and are now more securely above 4% - was this also to do with the debate?

No, that almost definately has to do with the abnormally warm summer we've had, with a severe drought that ruined farmers crops, and a very large number of forest fires back in July. Some of them very widespread. The Greens were able to fairly successfully tie this to climate change, which has seen their support go up.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on August 25, 2018, 06:58:47 pm
So let's get this straight one more time. The impression that I had, but I'm not sure if this is correct, is that if M+SD+KD+L = >50% of seats, an M minority government could be formed, sustained from the outside by L, KD and SD (in the sense that they wouldn't vote against the budget), and that M would take into account the policy preferences of these other parties. I realize that L and SD don't exactly like each other, but they don't have to be in a coalition with each other, they just need to tolerate the M govt.

If, however, these parties do not receive a majority... what happens? Does S get the initiative to form a government? How would that even work, if they would have to rely on both C and V? I realize this is unchartered territory, but I'm just thinking of the most likely course of action. How do Swedish analysts view this?

Also still astounded at the voting method in Sweden. Does nobody raise any environmental concerns with printing all these party-based ballots that are not going to be used? I really don't understand why they don't just have one ballot and let people tick a box to vote. I'm glad we do not use this system in the Netherlands - it would require half a rainforest to print the ballots with our number of parties.

So far, the Liberals are as clear as the Centre Party in rejecting a government based in anyway on the SD. The Moderates and Christian Democrats are slightly less hostile. Kristersson says the Moderates won't govern with or negotiate with Sweden Democrats, so he doesn't reject governing on their support. Busch Thor said the Christian Democrats could talk to Sweden Democrats, but not negotiate with them until the party was cleaned up (in terms of MPs deemed over the line). So theoretically a M-KD government supported by SD could be an option. But even in Sentio and YouGov polls, this majority rarely materializes. And even if it did, many in M and KD would still much prefer to go for some kind of Alliance government or even a cross-bloc government.

Most if not all of the Swedish parties would prefer to keep on pretending that the Sweden Democrats does not exist, and then let the biggest bloc between the Red-Greens and the Alliance govern, while the other bloc pretends to be in opposition. However, to their horror, the Alliance parties, KD and M in particular, realized that this was not really popular among members or voters. In the reverse scenario, Kristersson talks like he hopes that an Alliance government could rely on the Red Bloc not joining with SD to vote down his government. It is probably possible this could happen, but with Social Democrats putting all their focus on rejecting tax cuts and increasing welfare spending, they could hardly let an Allianse goverment rule without ensuring its wings were completely clipped. So there is probably a need for a more formalized cooperation or even coalition across the blocs this time. The Liberals talk positively about allowing a S-M government to be put in place. These three parties are close to a majority in the polling average and could perhaps be allowed by one additional small party. The distance between the two big parties economically seem so big that such a coalition would be painful.

You can see the most likely government according to Unibet below. Due to the economic difference between the two blocs, I think direct government cooperation across the blocs is less likely than (parts of) one bloc allowing the other bloc to govern in a very restricted way. What that restricted government would look like is hard to predict and somewhat depends on the election result. Allianse parties might demand a Social Democrat minority government where the "extreme" Greens and Left Party are kept away from government. The Social Democrats might not want to throw out any of the Allianse parties in particular, but would insist on very centrist budgets to allow such a government.
Thank you for this clear response. The obvious problem for the (former) Alliance with the "let's keep pretending SD don't exist" strategy is, of course, that SD gain more from the Alliance than from the left. This means that as long as SD keep gaining (and this strategy seems like a surefire way to ensure this), every election it will become a little more difficult for the Alliance to win more seats than the Red-Green parties. Which means the Alliance would have to continue upholding S governments and bleeding votes to SD until they change their strategy. A grand coalition would also be a kneefall for SD given Sweden's tradition of bloc politics.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Heat on August 25, 2018, 06:59:56 pm
The most noteworthy development right now, IMO, is a relative surge in support for the Christian Democrats during the election campaign. The party has consistently polled badly in the last few years, sometimes under 3%, and speculation has been rife that they would be leaving parliament after this election. But in the last couple of weeks their numbers have improved; in two polls released on friday, KD is well above 4%. Much of this is attributed to a debate held on 14th August in which party leader Ebba Busch Thor did well was was declared the winner by some. She has been consistently aknowledged as being charismatic and a good debater since she took over the party in 2015, but up until now this has not helped their electoral fortunes. Until perhaps now, that is.
The Greens have gone up a bit too and are now more securely above 4% - was this also to do with the debate?

No, that almost definately has to do with the abnormally warm summer we've had, with a severe drought that ruined farmers crops, and a very large number of forest fires back in July. Some of them very widespread. The Greens were able to fairly successfully tie this to climate change, which has seen their support go up.
Tack. I was aware of the awful summer Sweden had had but didn't know how that had impacted on politics. Interesting.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on August 27, 2018, 03:08:31 am
Sorry if these questions have been addressed recently, but:

1. Why are SD and M falling?
2. Why are SAP rising?
3. Why are KD rising (above the threshold finally, I might add)?
4. Am I right to assume that a left-leaning government is more of a possibility than any other time within recent months?

1. M I feel is not running a very effective Campaign and they're a bit caught in the middle trying to appeal to people who are a bit anti-immigration. SD I suspect are losing a Little support because immigration is a bit less politically dominant recently compared to the last few years and other parties are communicating their shifts on immigration to the voters.

2. Are they really? I Think incumbent governments tend to gain a Little during the Campaign.

3. As was noted their leader has done well in debates and as a small opposition party they get a lot more visibility during the Campaign.

4. Depends on your definition of left-leaning. :P But yes it's looking a lot more likely that there is a Red-Green plurality over the Alliance at this Point.

---------------------------------

In response to the discussion on government formation, the key problem is that there is no government anyone wants that can command a majority. This means parties will have to strike very painful compromises. Because these are all so painful, they all are basically decisions that in the past would have been ruled out as impossible. Essentially, something traditionally thought of as impossible will have to happen but it's hard to say which impossible thing will actually occur.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on August 27, 2018, 04:18:36 am
2014 results, visualized by Henrik Lindberg

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Helsinkian on August 27, 2018, 09:31:53 am
Why the high C support on Gotland?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on August 27, 2018, 11:38:55 am
Why the high C support on Gotland?

Farmers


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DL on August 27, 2018, 12:26:30 pm
Why are the Sweden Democrats so strong in Skane?

Also, it has always fascinated me how it is that Sweden may be one of the only countries in the industrialized world where the main metropolitan area (Stockholm) tends to be a bit of a right of centre stronghold. In almost every other country the main cities lean left compared to the rest of the country (e.g. London, Paris, Berlin, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Vienna etc... in Europe, but also Toronto, Montreal, vancouver, New York, LA, Chicago etc...)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 27, 2018, 01:13:50 pm
This comes up every election, but the answer is mostly to do with the unusual pattern that industrialisation took in Sweden, with industry (and so the formation of working class identity etc) being concentrated mostly in small towns in the provinces.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: EPG on August 27, 2018, 01:18:13 pm
The question's been asked before. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=270508.0) Elswhere, it happens where incomes in the cities are much higher, or where there are very significant ethnic / linguistic regional divides.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DL on August 27, 2018, 01:35:53 pm
I would speculate that Stockholm would keep voting a bit more "right" than the rest of Sweden as long as the "right" consists of parties like the Moderates and Liberals who accept the small "l" liberal consensus among elite opinion (in other words as long as they are the Swedish equivalent of pro-EU Tories in the UK). If we get to a point where the parties of the right in Sweden start to become socially conservative and xenophobic and populist and Eurosceptic etc... then it could create a whole new cleavage and I wonder who would then start to win in Stockholm?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: freefair on August 27, 2018, 01:53:07 pm
I would speculate that Stockholm would keep voting a bit more "right" than the rest of Sweden as long as the "right" consists of parties like the Moderates and Liberals who accept the small "l" liberal consensus among elite opinion (in other words as long as they are the Swedish equivalent of pro-EU Tories in the UK). If we get to a point where the parties of the right in Sweden start to become socially conservative and xenophobic and populist and Eurosceptic etc... then it could create a whole new cleavage and I wonder who would then start to win in Stockholm?

If the Moderates took that path, the Liberals would by definition be the main beneficiaries, it seems to me.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DL on August 27, 2018, 02:07:03 pm
I would speculate that Stockholm would keep voting a bit more "right" than the rest of Sweden as long as the "right" consists of parties like the Moderates and Liberals who accept the small "l" liberal consensus among elite opinion (in other words as long as they are the Swedish equivalent of pro-EU Tories in the UK). If we get to a point where the parties of the right in Sweden start to become socially conservative and xenophobic and populist and Eurosceptic etc... then it could create a whole new cleavage and I wonder who would then start to win in Stockholm?

If the Moderates took that path, the Liberals would by definition be the main beneficiaries, it seems to me.

...and if the main cleavage in Swedish politics moved from traditional left/right to more of an open/closed polarization...at what point would the Liberals and possibly the Centre Party split from the Moderates and there would be more of a shift towards a SAP/L/C centre left government that would isolate the SDs and Moderates


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: EPG on August 27, 2018, 02:59:38 pm
I would speculate that Stockholm would keep voting a bit more "right" than the rest of Sweden as long as the "right" consists of parties like the Moderates and Liberals who accept the small "l" liberal consensus among elite opinion (in other words as long as they are the Swedish equivalent of pro-EU Tories in the UK). If we get to a point where the parties of the right in Sweden start to become socially conservative and xenophobic and populist and Eurosceptic etc... then it could create a whole new cleavage and I wonder who would then start to win in Stockholm?

If the Moderates took that path, the Liberals would by definition be the main beneficiaries, it seems to me.

...and if the main cleavage in Swedish politics moved from traditional left/right to more of an open/closed polarization...at what point would the Liberals and possibly the Centre Party split from the Moderates and there would be more of a shift towards a SAP/L/C centre left government that would isolate the SDs and Moderates

It's still a couple of months away?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on August 27, 2018, 03:38:26 pm
Why are the Sweden Democrats so strong in Skane?

Also, it has always fascinated me how it is that Sweden may be one of the only countries in the industrialized world where the main metropolitan area (Stockholm) tends to be a bit of a right of centre stronghold. In almost every other country the main cities lean left compared to the rest of the country (e.g. London, Paris, Berlin, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Vienna etc... in Europe, but also Toronto, Montreal, vancouver, New York, LA, Chicago etc...)

In Europe it's still a pretty new phenomenon. Paris used to be a bastion of the French right up until the 2000s, and many of the largest Italian cities typically voted to the right.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on August 27, 2018, 03:47:57 pm
Worth pointing out that in 2014 the combined left actually did very slightly better in Stockholm city than the country as a whole, largely thanks to the "new" left parties FI or MP.

Stockholm county as a whole is a matter, in part because places like Danderyd fall outside the actual municipality.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on August 27, 2018, 07:51:08 pm
Why are the Sweden Democrats so strong in Skane?

Also, it has always fascinated me how it is that Sweden may be one of the only countries in the industrialized world where the main metropolitan area (Stockholm) tends to be a bit of a right of centre stronghold. In almost every other country the main cities lean left compared to the rest of the country (e.g. London, Paris, Berlin, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Vienna etc... in Europe, but also Toronto, Montreal, vancouver, New York, LA, Chicago etc...)

Well, I'm not so sure. Here Madrid (both the city and the region) is certainly a traditional right wing stronghold while the left gets bad results there. Barcelona is indeed a left wing stronghold though).

Another counterexample might be Portugal, with at least the Lisbon constituency being fairly representative of the results in Portugal at large.

So while it's very common for the main city to lean left, it's far from a 100% consistent rule.

I guess Stockholm is quite a "bourguesie" city? In that it tends to support parties on the right a lot.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on August 28, 2018, 06:09:18 am
With the parliamentary elections not being the only elections were having in 13 days, I thought I'd post some municipal polls as well.

Starting off in my now former home, Novus has conducted a poll of the municipal election in Umeå, the largest city in northern Sweden.
Let's just say that the city didn't get the nickname "Red Umeå" for no reason. One might be tempted to see this as Jonas Sjöstedt-effect, given that Umeå is the home of the Left Party leader, but it's quite possible that it has more to do with local issues. From 2010 to 2014 the Social Democrats and Left held a majority on the council together, but in 2014 they went their separate ways and S formed a majority together with the Greens and the four Alliance parties. The Left has had a pretty benefitial position, being the biggest opposition party and was thus able to oppose unpopular policies like cuts to preschools and elderly care or the sale of 1600 municipal-owned flats (including student housing) to a Norwegian venture capitalist.

Also, given the new 3% threshold the three smallest parties would fail to get any seats according to this poll. Meaning that with the exit of the Worker's Party, Umeå won't have any trotskyists on its city council for the first time since 1998. 'Tis truly the end of an era.

Novus poll, Umeå municipal election
Social Democrats: 31.6% (-5.2)
Left: 18.8% (+5.7)
Moderate: 15.4% (-0.9)
Centre: 8.4% (+2.5)
Liberals: 7.5% (+1.4)
Sweden Democrats: 6.3% (+3.1)
Greens: 5.7% (-1.7)
Worker’s: 2.1% (-0.6)
Christian Democrats: 2.0% (-1.9)
Feminist Initiative: 1.2% (-2.7)


Meanwhile in my new home, Gothenburg, things are even weirder. Pretty much the entire political spectrum has been turned on its head by populist parties founded in opposition to the controversial railyway project Västlänken (the West Link) and the congestion charge implemented as part of an agreement in 2009 with the government to partially fund the West Link (and other parts of the West Swedish package, including new bridges and road tunnels), alongside money coming from the national budget.
The latest populist party, the Democrats, led and founded by former Moderate Martin Wannholt who was joined by a few Social Democrats and Greens who all had the common denominator of being held back from advancement in their own parties, currently looks like it's leading in the polls. However as the party didn't run in the 2014 election it has to both pay for ballots and be responsible for distributing them to the various polling places around the city, which could depress its numbers somewhat since it's likely they won't be able to get ballots to every polling station. Sure, people can write in the party if it's ballots aren't there, but there's a pretty good chance that some just wouldn't bother with that and just go for another party instead.

Sifo poll, Gothenburg municipal election
Democrats: 18.9% (new party)
Moderate: 16.7% (-5.6)
Left: 14.6% (+5.2)
Social Democrats: 14.2% (-8.2)
Sweden Democrats: 9.9% (+2.9)
Liberals: 6.8% (-1.3)
Greens: 5.6% (-5.1)
Centre: 4.2% (+2.0)
Feminist Initiative: 3.2% (-0.8 )
Vägvalet (Road Choice): 2.2% (-2.7)
Christian Democrats: 2.0% (-2.0)


Pro-West Link (Left, S+V+MP+FI): 37.6%
Pro-West Link (Right, M+L+C+KD): 29.7%
Anti-West Link (D+SD+VV): 31.0%

Also, since the last election Gothenburg has merged its four constituencies used for municipal elections into one city-wide constituency, meaning that the threshold is at 2% rather than 3, and VV and KD would therefore get in (if only barely) if these numbers were replicated on election day. A bare majority consisting of the Democrats, Moderates, Liberals, Centre, Road Choice and Christian Democrats would technically be possible under such circumstances. However considering that the Democrats raison d'etre is their opposition to the West Link, the question is how hell such a majority would solve the West Link issue when construction has already started and it's part of deal to get government funding for other important projects which are less controversial and desperately needed. So chaos it is, then.

Finally in Stockholm, things are looking somewhat more calm. The leftwing parties are going against historical trends by being stronger in Stockholm than the rest of the country (though not due to any strong performance from the Social Democrats), while if this result were to be replicated on election day the Moderates would get their worst municipal election result in 48 years in the nation's capital. Stockholm still has multiple constituencies, so the threshold is at 3%, but if the Feminist Initiative, Christian Democrats or both got slightly more on election day it could either mean a continued Red-Green-Pink majority or a slightly larger Alliance in a council with a Red-Green(-Pink) plurality.

Novus poll, Stockholm municipal election
Moderate: 22.1% (-5.1)
Social Democrats: 21.7% (-0.3)
Left: 13.1% (+4.2)
Greens: 11.1% (-3.2)
Liberals: 9.0% (+0.7)
Sweden Democrats: 8.3% (+3.1)
Centre: 7.3% (+2.6)
Feminist Initiative: 2.9% (-1.7)
Christian Democrats: 2.8% (-0.5)


I currently don't have any numbers for Malmö.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: FredLindq on August 28, 2018, 06:55:03 am
Novus poll, Malmö municipal election Published 2018-06-02
Social Democrats: 29,5% (-3,4)
Moderate: 22.6% (+0,6)
Sweden Democrats: 17,6% (+4,5)
Left: 11.1% (+2,6)
Liberals: 5.8% (+0.4)
Greens: 5,0% (-3.6)
Centre: 2.3% (+0.6)
Feminist Initiative: 2.2% (-1.0)
Christian Democrats: 1,3% (-0.5)
Others 2,5% (-0.5)

There is a 3%-threshold.

Left-Green-Pink 47,8 (-5,4)
The Alliance 32,0 (+1,1)
Sweden Democrats: 17,6% (+4,5)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: FredLindq on September 01, 2018, 01:28:25 am
A verk dirty Election so far....

https://www.ft.com/content/47b05d76-ad2e-11e8-94bd-cba20d67390c


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 02, 2018, 07:44:45 am
So what's with the SD candidate(s) with a Nazi past?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 03, 2018, 11:36:24 am
Inizio polling.

Should your party be prepared to govern with support from Sweden Democrats?

72% Yes KD
64% Yes M
25% Yes L
08% Yes C

48% Yes All Allianse voters.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 03, 2018, 11:51:01 am
SVT picture of the results of the election compass. The fat circles are the official response of the party to the compass. The small dots are that of individual candidates. The compass if of course with the classic left-right economic scale, and the vertical scale is globalization/multiculturalism at top and the opposite at the bottom.

(
Img
)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: VPH on September 03, 2018, 01:07:52 pm
SVT picture of the results of the election compass. The fat circles are the official response of the party to the compass. The small dots are that of individual candidates. The compass if of course with the classic left-right economic scale, and the vertical scale is globalization/multiculturalism at top and the opposite at the bottom.

(
Img
)

Wait, so candidates can diverge publicly from the party? In a parliamentary system?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on September 03, 2018, 01:52:21 pm
TV4/Sifo poll: "Which of the following parties do you not want see in a government after the election?"
Liberals: 12%
Centre: 14%
Moderate: 17%
Social Democrats: 19%
Christian Democrats: 27%
Left: 34%
Greens: 37%
Feminist Initiative: 46%
Sweden Democrats: 59%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 03, 2018, 01:58:31 pm

Wait, so candidates can diverge publicly from the party? In a parliamentary system?

This shows answers to an election compass, so some of it can be just the difference between agree and fully agree on a question. Once in parliament all MPs from a party generally vote the same way. But the picture shows how there is a relatively big range between MP/candidates from particularly Liberals and Center, who have some candidates who are very pro-migration and fairly close to the Greens.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on September 03, 2018, 02:03:10 pm
You would instinctively think list MPs a la Sweden would be less inclined to rebel than directly elected ones - no personal vote


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 03, 2018, 02:52:37 pm
You would instinctively think list MPs a la Sweden would be less inclined to rebel than directly elected ones - no personal vote

Yeah, I mean in general one of the big advantages of PR is that you get more coherent parties and thereby a more transparent party choice for voters. So there should be much less need for rebels. The effect is probably the strongest with closed lists. The Swedish system is semi-closed in that MPs are elected according to their list rank, but candidates who win 5% or more of a party's votes will break the list and get elected. Still it can happen, particularly with parties who are new in government it seems. Miljöpartiet/Greens had 4 rebel MPs, who voted against government line a few times. In the end, I think they weren't really part of the Green group anymore.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 04, 2018, 11:25:35 pm
For the Sweden Democrats, the spread between phone pollsters (16-19%) and online pollsters (24-25) is pretty huge right now.

I wonder what this means in the end ...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 05, 2018, 05:53:46 am
For the Sweden Democrats, the spread between phone pollsters (16-19%) and online pollsters (24-25) is pretty huge right now.

I wonder what this means in the end ...


Shy voters.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on September 05, 2018, 06:09:55 am
So what's with the SD candidate(s) with a Nazi past?

How do you mean? It's originally a Nazi organization so it's full of closet Nazis. This has been known for years, the media usually exposes a bunch of them at irregular intervals. The last batch has been pretty bad even by SD standards though.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Gustaf on September 05, 2018, 06:11:57 am
In response to the previous discussion, Sweden is probably moving towards a more social issue driven political divide. I expect elements of the centre-right will eventually end up with the centre-left while the rest of the right joins with the far-right. But we're not there yet.

It looks like everyone is going to manage to stay in parliament, Red-Green get small plurality and then we get really messy government formation.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Omega21 on September 05, 2018, 09:54:33 am
In response to the previous discussion, Sweden is probably moving towards a more social issue driven political divide. I expect elements of the centre-right will eventually end up with the centre-left while the rest of the right joins with the far-right. But we're not there yet.

It looks like everyone is going to manage to stay in parliament, Red-Green get small plurality and then we get really messy government formation.


Agreed.

If the Left parties were to move to a more conservative stance on immigration/integration and such issues (that the majority of the population would probably support), they could stop the growing support for the right.

If they do nothing, they're just blowing up the bubble, which at some point will pop.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on September 05, 2018, 09:57:06 am
In response to the previous discussion, Sweden is probably moving towards a more social issue driven political divide. I expect elements of the centre-right will eventually end up with the centre-left while the rest of the right joins with the far-right. But we're not there yet.

It looks like everyone is going to manage to stay in parliament, Red-Green get small plurality and then we get really messy government formation.


Agreed.

If the Left parties were to move to a more conservative stance on immigration/integration and such issues (that the majority of the population would probably support), they could stop the growing support for the right.

If they do nothing, they're just blowing up the bubble, which at some point will pop.

I mean, S in Denmark also did that and the DPP are just as powerful as ever.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 05, 2018, 12:34:45 pm
I'll start with the predictions for Sunday:

23.6% Social Democrats (-7.4%)
21.4% Sweden Democrats (+8.5%)
17.0% Moderates (-6.3%)
11.5% Left (+5.8%)
  9.0% Centre (+2.9%)
  5.5% Christian Democrats (+0.9%)
  5.4% Liberals (n.c.)
  4.5% Greens (-2.4%)
  1.1% Feminist Initiative (-2.0%)
  1.0% Others (n.c.)

Turnout: 84.9% (-0.9%)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 05, 2018, 02:20:55 pm
The eventual support for the SD is the hardest to predict, but I assume the following:

Usually, if the far-right party is bouncing around wildly in support in pre-election polls, it means they are having a really good election day result.

On the other hand, I do not expect the SD to do as well as the FPÖ in Austria (26%).

The polls have been quite accurate in Austria, the Netherlands and France last year - not so much in Italy though, where the support for Lega and M5S was underestimated.

Still, Sweden is closer to the Netherlands or France politically rather than Austria or Italy - so I guess they will do well and better than what the polls show, but not as well as the FPÖ.

21-22% looks like the most likely outcome, unless there's a hidden sentiment among voters like before the first round of the Austrian Presidential election, where the polls predicted 20-25% for Hofer (FPÖ), but he got 35%. Obviously, that was right after the migrant invasion of 2015. But Sweden also has its fair share of immigration-related problems, so a surprising win for the SD in the 25-28% range can also not be ruled out ...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 06, 2018, 10:57:24 am
SD 24, S 21, M 19, V 10, C 7, MP 5, L 5, KD 4, AfS 2.5, FI 2

Turnout 88%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Heat on September 06, 2018, 11:11:57 am
Turnout 88%
incredible


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 06, 2018, 11:20:22 am
It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 06, 2018, 11:25:21 am
It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.

I'm not sure if turnout can still rise on Sunday relative to the already high 86% from 2014 ...

I think in the case of Sweden, it might have peaked and is likely to fall a bit.

Sweden has naturalized a lot of migrants recently, and they are not as likely to vote as real Swedes.

https://www.thelocal.se/20180831/how-sweden-hopes-to-get-its-foreign-born-residents-to-vote

It would be a nice surprise though to see 87% or 88% turnout.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: King Francis I on September 06, 2018, 11:28:40 am
I'll start with the predictions for Sunday:

23.6% Social Democrats (-7.4%)
21.4% Sweden Democrats (+8.5%)
17.0% Moderates (-6.3%)
11.5% Left (+5.8%)
  9.0% Centre (+2.9%)
  5.5% Christian Democrats (+0.9%)
  5.4% Liberals (n.c.)
  4.5% Greens (-2.4%)
  1.1% Feminist Initiative (-2.0%)
  1.0% Others (n.c.)

Turnout: 84.9% (-0.9%)
I agree with this prediction.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Heat on September 06, 2018, 02:00:46 pm
It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.
Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 06, 2018, 02:23:18 pm
It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.
Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.
If you're referring to that - yes, I know what the number stands for in Nazi circles, but I also think it's actually pretty normal to use it in contexts where it actually means what it means. Maybe it's me, but I don't tend to think of that number as a "code" for anything outside obvious Nazi contexts.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Heat on September 06, 2018, 02:30:15 pm
It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.
Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.
If you're referring to that - yes, I know what the number stands for in Nazi circles, but I also think it's actually pretty normal to use it in contexts where it actually means what it means. Maybe it's me, but I don't tend to think of that number as a "code" for anything outside obvious Nazi contexts.
Given SD's past I think it would constitute a dark irony if an election where they topped the poll happened to have an 88% turnout. But my post was meant to be a throwaway giggle so this is really more explanation than it deserves at this point.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on September 06, 2018, 02:31:39 pm
It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.
Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.
If you're referring to that - yes, I know what the number stands for in Nazi circles, but I also think it's actually pretty normal to use it in contexts where it actually means what it means. Maybe it's me, but I don't tend to think of that number as a "code" for anything outside obvious Nazi contexts.
Given SD's past I think it would constitute a dark irony if an election where they topped the poll happened to have an 88% turnout. But my post was meant to be a throwaway giggle so this is really more explanation than it deserves at this point.
would be good if SD finished up with 14% though...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 06, 2018, 04:14:48 pm
General summary of the polling situation...

SAP - between 22.1% and 26.5%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
M - between 16.3% and 18.2%, with most polls showing about 17%.
SD - between 16.8% and 24.8%, with some very marked disagreements between polling firms. Most polls show high teens.
M - between 3.6% and 6.2%, with most polls showing around 5%.
C - between 6.0% and 9.6%, with most polls showing around 8%.
V - between 9.4% and 11.1%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
L - between 4.9% and 6.8%, with most polls spreading pretty broadly between the two.
KD - between 4.8% and 7.0%, with most polls showing around 6%.

Almost all polls have shown an SAP lead (some quite large), and the exceptions have been within the MoE.

As for the two main party blocs:

Left - between 37.2% and 42.2%.
Bourgeois - between 34.4% and 39.9%.

All polls this month have had a Left lead, though sometimes within the MoE.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 06, 2018, 05:55:50 pm
It was almost 86% in 2014, and turnout went up by a lot in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands compared to the previous election. I think the turnout "ceiling" in Sweden has almost been reached, meaning that any increase will probably be less big, but in the current international and domestic political climate, 88% turnout in Sweden does not seem like a very strange prediction to me. Denmark tends to have about the same turnout as Sweden and reached 87.2% in 2011, before the refugee crisis and the Trump era.
Oh no, I know, it's just a rather ironic number to choose. But I imagine you already know that.
If you're referring to that - yes, I know what the number stands for in Nazi circles, but I also think it's actually pretty normal to use it in contexts where it actually means what it means. Maybe it's me, but I don't tend to think of that number as a "code" for anything outside obvious Nazi contexts.
Given SD's past I think it would constitute a dark irony if an election where they topped the poll happened to have an 88% turnout. But my post was meant to be a throwaway giggle so this is really more explanation than it deserves at this point.
would be good if SD finished up with 14% though...


lol


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 06, 2018, 06:24:04 pm
I do not know much but my prediction

S    23.8
SD  20.1
M    16.7
V    10.1
C      8.4
L      6.0
KD   6.0
MP   5.8
FI    1.7
Oth  1.4

S+MP+V = 39.7
M+C+L+KD = 37.1

M under-performing to the benefit of SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JonHawk on September 07, 2018, 08:03:20 am
S - 23.6%
SD - 22.1%
M - 17.9%
V - 9.1%
C - 7.1%
L - 5.9%
KD - 5.1%
MP - 5.0%
FI - 1.2%
Other - 2.0%

Turnout: 87.4%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Heat on September 07, 2018, 09:12:35 am
S 27.0
SD 20.9
M 15.3
V 9.2
C 7.5
KD 7.4
L 6.0
MP 4.5
FI 0.7
AfS 0.2

I actually suspect S will overperform a bit off the back of people not wanting to see SD 'win'. C seem to me to be losing momentum while KD visibly have it. M will lose a lot of people to SD and return to Erlander-era numbers for the foreseeable future. AfS will get a derisory total and all the attention they got will look faintly silly.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 07, 2018, 01:23:56 pm
The last party leader debate is on SVT1 now, the main state channel. Viewers who turned on their television 5 min early were treated to this interesting story: Ali Khalil, a Stockholm councillor for the Green Party, offered 3.000 votes from his muslim community to the Moderates if they agreed to approve a building license for a new mosque. The Moderates rejected the offer. Guessing this kind of story could almost matter as much as the debate itself


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 07, 2018, 02:44:01 pm
Panic in the Environmental Party: "We are below what the measurements show"

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/samhalle/a/8w8J0Q/mps-panikplan-vi-ligger-lagre-an-vad-matningarna-visar

It seems MP is coming out with this just to make sure it can get last minute S tactical voting for MP to ensure a Center-Left plurality over the Center-Right bloc.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 07, 2018, 03:34:13 pm
Everything was about Åkesson and Sweden Democrats in the debate. At several times, it became everybody against Åkesson, particularly on immigration. Even Busch Thor from the Christian Democrats, who is probably closest to SD, was eager to say that SD had the wrong rhetoric or policy even when she herself made basically the same points. Åkesson's toughest duels were with Sjöstedt from Left Party, and particularly Löof from the Centre Party. Lööf and Åkesson had several intense duels, and at one point Åkesson even told Lööf to tone down her anger. Probably good for both parties in terms of votes to gain attention for their clear points of view, but does make it very difficult to see a government that is dependent on both parties. The Liberals again rejected dealing with SD, and talked up the idea of a cross-block agreement (that they aren't necessarily a part of themselves).

PM Stefan Löfven was quite muted and didn't play that big of a role. He was quite clear on his repeated points, particularly against the Allianse's proposed tax cuts, but was also severely hounded on his record on migration and crime from both Åkessson and Kristersson.

One should always be careful in guessing which way the opinion polls can be wrong. But with SD's role as the only proper opposition party during the term (which Åkesson reminded people tonight), an election campaign with immigration as a big subject after an extremely huge immigration inflow , and a final debate which centered around SD, I would be quite amazed if SD only managed to progress from 13 to 17%. I am fully aware that even if many voters agree with their viewpoints, it takes time for voters to give up previous party loyalties and go to the SD. But if SD only go from 13 to 17%, as Sifo, Demoskop, SKOP, Ipsos and Inizio polls suggest, then that really is a missed opportunity of huge dimensions. In these circumstances, without polls, I would have guessed something more like a doubling from 13% to 26%.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Coffein00 on September 07, 2018, 03:34:38 pm
While minority governments are not that uncommon in Sweden, I would not rule out, that the Center-party and the Liberals leave their bloc to form a majority government ( S+MP+L+C ), if they would have enough seats and the Moderates start thinking about forming a coalition with the Sweden Democrats.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 07, 2018, 03:45:15 pm
The focus on SD should be fairly positive for SD.  Richard Nixon once said "If you ever hear of a group getting together to stop X, put your money on X."


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 07, 2018, 04:07:59 pm
After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: EPG on September 07, 2018, 05:36:25 pm
After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

When you broadcast words, you have some responsibility for them.

"Maybe the ex-Nazis have a good point."


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DL on September 07, 2018, 07:17:02 pm
The Centre Party and the Liberal Party seem so similar in Sweden. Why don’t they just merge? What issues actually set them apart?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2018, 11:48:26 pm
My updated prediction (tough race for 1st between S and SD):

22.6% Social Democrats (-8.4%)
22.4% Sweden Democrats (+9.5%)
17.5% Moderates (-5.8%)
11.0% Left (+5.3%)
  9.3% Centre (+3.2%)
  5.5% Christian Democrats (+0.9%)
  5.4% Liberals (n.c.)
  4.2% Greens (-2.7%)
  1.1% Feminist Initiative (-2.0%)
  1.0% Others (n.c.)

Turnout: 85.2% (-0.6%)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 08, 2018, 03:01:04 am
My updated prediction (tough race for 1st between S and SD):

22.6% Social Democrats (-8.4%)
22.4% Sweden Democrats (+9.5%)
17.5% Moderates (-5.8%)
11.0% Left (+5.3%)
  9.3% Centre (+3.2%)
  5.5% Christian Democrats (+0.9%)
  5.4% Liberals (n.c.)
  4.2% Greens (-2.7%)
  1.1% Feminist Initiative (-2.0%)
  1.0% Others (n.c.)

Turnout: 85.2% (-0.6%)

I'm generally agreeing, except with Left (will get less, too many spurous youth/student votes who don't vote at a high rate, the Norwegian Left party has plummeted on election day in almost every election for the past decade or longer) and with Moderates and Christian Democrats (will get more, because their voters are older and more affluent and always turn out at a super high rate, especially the super rich businness men of Moderates).

Compared to polls, I expect the biggest bumps to go to Sweden Democrats and then Moderates, while the biggest losers should be The Greens and then Left Party. That is always the case in Norway and our two countries are very similar after all. Although with some major differences too, which I've always found very fascinating. I've always felt more Swedish than Norwegian culturally and politically, though I'm 100% Norwegian genetically and a mix between Eastern and Western Norwegian, a big fault line in Norway both culturally, politically and geographically. Lol.

Turnout will be no more than 84% at most, very possibly lower. In Norway it's usually 76-78% and shrinking with almost every election.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 08, 2018, 03:07:07 am
Front page of newspapers today:
The left one: "Åkesson's rage against SVT after the debate:'A Scandal'. Dissociated themselves from the SD-leader in direct coverage."
The right one: "Anger towards SVT's statement against Åkesson. Program leader dissociated themselves from them in program after debate on immigration. SD demands apology.
 (
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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on September 08, 2018, 08:41:40 am
Prediction:

Social Democratic: 23.0%
Sweden Democrats: 19.5%
Moderate: 16.0%
Left: 11.0%
Centre: 8.0%
Liberals: 6.0%
Christian Democrats: 6.0%
Green: 5.5%

Coalition: Social Democratic-Green (Confidence & Supply: Left)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2018, 10:29:17 am
Prediction:

Social Democratic: 23.0%
Sweden Democrats: 19.5%
Moderate: 16.0%
Left: 11.0%
Centre: 8.0%
Liberals: 6.0%
Christian Democrats: 6.0%
Green: 5.5%

Coalition: Social Democratic-Green (Confidence & Supply: Left)

What's with the remaining 5% ?

Also: LOL at the continuation of Red-Green.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Coffein00 on September 08, 2018, 11:10:36 am
Prediction:

Social Democratic: 23.0%
Sweden Democrats: 19.5%
Moderate: 16.0%
Left: 11.0%
Centre: 8.0%
Liberals: 6.0%
Christian Democrats: 6.0%
Green: 5.5%

Coalition: Social Democratic-Green (Confidence & Supply: Left)

What's with the remaining 5% ?

Also: LOL at the continuation of Red-Green.

the continuation of Red-Green (+Left) is not unlikely at all.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: SunSt0rm on September 08, 2018, 11:33:06 am
My prediction

24.5% Social Democrats
22.0% Sweden Democrats
18.5% Moderates
  8.5% Left
  7.5% Centre
  6.0% Christian Democrats
  5.5% Liberals
  5.0% Greens


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: rob in cal on September 08, 2018, 12:00:06 pm
  Ok, I've got 15 dollars wagered to win about 10 that SD comes in second. Lets see if atlas conventional wisdom puts me in the profit.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mvd10 on September 08, 2018, 12:37:40 pm
23.0% Social Democrats
21.0% Sweden Democrats
17.5% Moderates
10.0% Left
8.0% Centre
6.5% Christian Democrats
6.0% Greens
5.5% Liberals
2.5% Others

Don't ask me what happens after this btw. Though I guess something like a continuation of the current government would be most likely since M+KD with SD outside support wouldn't have a majority and the centre-left would be bigger than the centre-right.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 08, 2018, 12:40:30 pm
Some observations:

1. While the Sweden Democrats have become more normalized than before, there still is a taboo in confessing to vote for them (particularly given Swedish culture and mentality). This matters in telephone polls. Only the Sentio and YouGov polls are completely internet-based, and interestingly, they have much higher numbers for SD than the other polls. Sentio came closest to estimating SD's percentage of the vote correctly in 2014. There is no real reason to believe this is not the case this time.

2. SD have had a very solid campaign. No big gaffes in the last weeks, no truly shocking information that was revealed.

3. Immigration and crime by immigrants remain top concerns among Swedes, despite the establishment parties' push to talk about other issues.

Updated prediction:

Sweden Democrats 25%
Social Democrats 22%
Moderates 17%
Left 9%
Center 8%
Liberal 5%
Christian Democrats 5%
Greens 4%
AfS 2.5%
FI 1.5%

Red-Greens 35%
Alliance 35%

Turnout: 88%
Coalition: M, with explicit outside support from KD and L and tacit outside support from SD


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on September 08, 2018, 12:52:33 pm
Some observations:

1. While the Sweden Democrats have become more normalized than before, there still is a taboo in confessing to vote for them (particularly given Swedish culture and mentality). This matters in telephone polls. Only the Sentio and YouGov polls are completely internet-based, and interestingly, they have much higher numbers for SD than the other polls. Sentio came closest to estimating SD's percentage of the vote correctly in 2014. There is no real reason to believe this is not the case this time.

2. SD have had a very solid campaign. No big gaffes in the last weeks, no truly shocking information that was revealed.

3. Immigration and crime by immigrants remain top concerns among Swedes, despite the establishment parties' push to talk about other issues.

Updated prediction:

Sweden Democrats 25%
Social Democrats 22%
Moderates 17%
Left 9%
Center 8%
Liberal 5%
Christian Democrats 5%
Greens 4%
AfS 2.5%
FI 1.5%

Red-Greens 35%
Alliance 35%

Turnout: 88%
Coalition: M, with explicit outside support from KD and L and tacit outside support from SD

Last time there was like a 2-3 point gap between the online and phone pollsters. This time it's been more like 5-6%. I don't know what to predict at this point, but I think a gap that substantial is going to be about far moer than just a "shy SD" effect.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2018, 12:53:40 pm
I agree with David here ...

The SD should have a big day tomorrow, but I'm not sure if it will be enough for first place.

Still, I cannot imagine they will get a better result than the FPÖ.

I also agree that an M-led minority government, backed by KD and L and maybe the SD on some issues is much more likely than a continuation of Red-Green. If the recent years and events are any indicator, I think Swedish voters will liquidate Red-Green tomorrow.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2018, 01:07:50 pm
After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2018, 01:14:46 pm
After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

Those comments are xenophobic even if they were correct, when you're a political leaders your words are powerful and he should've been extremely careful with his language,

Ehm, he's the leader of a xenophobic party.

Should a Socialist politician not talk about Socialism, but instead talk about excessive capitalism ?

Should a Green Party politician talk about how to pollute the oceans with more plastic ?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 08, 2018, 01:29:57 pm
A representative of the Danish public broadcaster DR said they would never make such a statement to dissociate themselves from a politician making such a statement.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 08, 2018, 01:33:34 pm
My prediction:

Social Democrats - 24,8%
Sweden Democrats - 19,8%
Moderates - 17,7%
Left Party - 9,7%
Centre Party - 8,7%
Liberals - 6,1 %
Christian Democrats - 5,9%
Greens - 4,9%
Feminist Initiative - 0,9%

Others - 1,5%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2018, 01:39:56 pm
Early voting is very popular in Sweden and "Radio Sweden" reports that until yesterday a new record has been set.

In 2014, about 42% voted before election day - a number that will be closer to 50% this year.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2018, 01:48:45 pm
Btw, "Radio Sweden" has a few interesting English language contents such as the "Political Compass" where you can find out which party you are closest to:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6981866

And interviews in English with each party leader:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/gruppsida.aspx?programid=2054&grupp=27436


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2018, 02:04:38 pm
Your party sympathies in percent, based on your answers:

75% S
63% MP
59% FI
58% V

47% SD
46% M
39% C
39% L
35% KD


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on September 08, 2018, 02:10:32 pm
I was always going to do something like this, heh

V - 78%
FI - 78%
MP - 71%
S - 61%

KD - 30%
L - 25%
SD - 25%
C - 22%
M - 13%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 08, 2018, 02:16:10 pm
Even though Jan Björklund is much less angry than Annie Lööf, then the words coming from his mouth are as negative towards SD as those from her. Björklund does emphasize the point about responsibility in terms of securing a stable new government, but I would still tend to put L and C in the same bucket and expect them to act in the same way. Also based on a strategic view, where they seem to appeal to many of the same voters despite the party histories being quite different.

If the Allianse parties get more seats than the Red-Greens parties, I think there is a good chance that an Allianse government with all four parties will be formed. In the party leader debate yesterday, this question was asked. The four Allianse parties AND the Left Party agreed that this should happen in such a scenario. Sjöstedt was quite clear that the "winning block" should form the government, so this suggests they might even lay their votes down. Löfven and Lövin did not agree to the same, but this mostly seemed to be bitterness about how the Allianse parties acted during the last four years. In the end, I think they could very well lay down their votes as well. SD said their vote in this scenario would come down to policy, but if all Red-Greens lay down their votes, then it doesn't matter.
If the Red-Green parties get more seats than the Allianse parties then the fun really begins. All Allianse parties, particularly M and KD, should be wary of just allowing Red-Greens to govern on for four more years without a majority. However, the political correctness in Sweden's political elite is so strong that I wouldn't rule out this happening in the end, particularly if the Red-Greens keep their cool and reject all centre-right governments in this scenario. There might be some tweaks and conditions, like keeping the Greens out of government or a demand that budgets should be made with the Allianse, but I can see it happen. And ultimatively the Allianse parties might all prefer this to some cross-bloc government, because they can easier keep their hands clean and it looks less like some very weird government just to keep SD out of influence. Also the Allianse parties can then postpone breaking up the Allianse, which they all seem quite attached to after the two terms governing together. If the Red-Green parties keep their cool and promises to vote down any centre-right government, then the only chance of such a government being formed is that the Allianse parties and SD makes an agreement. There is probably little possibility for an overlap where a government both includes C and L AND is palatable to SD. So it would likely be a M-KD government, perhaps a M government. Such a government should then find some middle way, particularly on immigration, that keeps both C+L and SD from voting them down. This should be quite hard with both SD and C making significant gains due to their clear and opposite views, but maybe it can be fudged. M-KD might hope that Social Democrats could offer to lay down their votes if they present a centrist economic programme and "mainstream toughish" on immigration, but again S should probably keep their cool and reject all centre-right governments in this scenario.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 08, 2018, 02:26:55 pm
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Img
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lol


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 08, 2018, 02:37:35 pm
After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

There is a 1-minute video clip here at the top, that shows the incident. It can be seen in Denmark, so probably also in the rest of the World. https://www.svt.se/nyheter/svt-tar-avstand-till-akessons-kommentar-sd-starkt-kritiska

Precise description and translation:

We are on SVT1, around 10 minutes after the end of the debate. There have been a quick flash interview with all party leaders right after the debate, and now the host and two guests start to debate the debate, so they roll a clip, which is where the video starts.

Jimmie Åkesson: "If only the immigrants get jobs, then everything will solve itself". That is what all the others (pointing at other party leaders) have always said. But that still isn't happening. Therefore one must ask why it is so hard for these people to get a job. That is because these people are not Swedish. They don't fit into Sweden. It is obvious that it is then hard to get a job.

Annie Lööf interrupting: How can you talk in this way!?!?!

Jimmie Åkesson: It is obvious that it is then hard to get a job. You have to actually do what is required to become Swedish.

Clip ends, and we are back with the host and two guests.

Host says: We should start out by saying that Jimmie Åkesson's comments here were severely generalizing. SVT distances itself from this. (Turns towards one of the guests) Why does he express himself this way, Love (his actual name)?

Guest: The party has a very clear line, and normally expresses itself in this way, although they perhaps do not go this far always. They are very clear on their policies in this area, and they probably feel a need to go further. We can see that on migration policy, where they are now even against UN quota refugees. The party feels a need to go further since other parties have moved closer to and even taken over some of SD's policy positions.



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Comstock 2: Barbara Reloaded on September 08, 2018, 02:38:15 pm
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Swing voter?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2018, 02:47:48 pm
Annie Lööf interrupting: How can you talk in this way!?!?!

::)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: PSOL on September 08, 2018, 02:49:42 pm
After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

Those comments are xenophobic even if they were correct, when you're a political leaders your words are powerful and he should've been extremely careful with his language,
They aren’t correct, the refugees can’t get jobs due to swedish law barring them to for recent arrivals. For long term unemployment there is the issue of the system in place dealing with people ravaged by war with language and skill barriers in the worst migration disaster since WWII


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Omega21 on September 08, 2018, 02:57:42 pm
After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

Those comments are xenophobic even if they were correct, when you're a political leaders your words are powerful and he should've been extremely careful with his language,
They aren’t correct, the refugees can’t get jobs due to swedish law barring them to for recent arrivals. For long term unemployment there is the issue of the system in place dealing with people ravaged by war with language and skill barriers in the worst migration disaster since WWII

So, there are no integration issues whatsoever that are a part of the problem?

Don't you think someone who does not fully integrate into Swedish culture and does not learn the language bears part of the responsibility for the lack of opportunities?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 08, 2018, 03:01:44 pm
Great analysis on the coalition formation, Diouf.

My result for the test:
SD 60%
M 54%
C 48%
S 47%
MP 46%
L 45%
KD 41%
V 39%
FI 34%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JonHawk on September 08, 2018, 03:16:03 pm
Btw, "Radio Sweden" has a few interesting English language contents such as the "Political Compass" where you can find out which party you are closest to:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6981866

I got

SD - 72
L - 58
M - 55
S - 52
KD - 46
C - 46
V - 40
MP - 36
FI - 34


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 08, 2018, 03:23:19 pm
M 68%
SD 63%
S 62%
L 61%
KD 61%
C 61%
MP 49%
FI 34%
V 32%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 08, 2018, 03:37:09 pm
SVT is dumping Eva Landahl, the editor who told the SVT host to make the comment about SD, for the election night coverage tomorrow. Newspaper Expressen revealed that she had liked Twitter comments that were critical of Sweden Democrats, including one very critical op-ed with the headline "Sweden Democrats is a completely unneccesary party". In the statement, it also says that "After discussions, we agree that it would have been better for viewers if we had handled Åkesson's comments in another way".


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Coffein00 on September 08, 2018, 04:58:14 pm
My prediction:

S: 23.5%
SD: 21%
M: 17.25%
V: 9.5%
C: 8.5%
KD: 6.25%
L: 5.75%
MP: 5.25%
Oth: 3%

S+MP(+V) : 38.25%
Alliance : 37.75%

S+C+L+MP : 43%
M+KD+SD : 44.5%

needed for majority: 48.5%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on September 08, 2018, 05:03:02 pm
On that compass I got:
V 59%
S 59%
L 55%
MP 55%
C 54%
FI 49%
KD 47%
M 45%
SD 37%

Not too surprising at the top. I guess the most surprising thing is the big gap between C and M, since they both seem like centre-right parties.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 08, 2018, 05:05:38 pm
Btw, "Radio Sweden" has a few interesting English language contents such as the "Political Compass" where you can find out which party you are closest to:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6981866

I got what feels like a really strange result to me. Maybe because I emphasized "Sweden should join NATO" as a major issue?

KD: 65
MP: 65
FI: 63
V: 62
C: 55
S: 52
L: 48
M: 37
SD: 30

I thought KD was not all that distinguishable from M aside from being religious. And one of my major issues was ending religious free schools...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on September 08, 2018, 05:36:26 pm
My result for the test (not really surprised; I guess I'd probably vote for S if I were Swedish)

S: 64%
FI: 57%
MP: 56%
V: 53%

SD: 49%
KD: 49%
M: 46%
C: 46%
L: 43%

I guess I would be a swing voter though.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Beezer on September 08, 2018, 06:06:10 pm
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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: bigic on September 08, 2018, 07:00:01 pm
C 76%
KD 72% (?!)
M 69%
L 63%
MP 47%
S 45%
SD 40%
V 38%
FI 33%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Dereich on September 08, 2018, 07:13:20 pm
C:   79
KD: 77   
M:   70
L:    61
   
MP:  50
S:    49

SD:  46

FI:   42
V:    34

The English version of the test was really helpful, though on reflection I'm not sure who it was aimed at outside of Atlas types.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 08, 2018, 07:29:35 pm
SD: 75
M: 72
L: 65
C: 55
KD: 46
S: 41
V: 30
MP: 24
FI: 22


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on September 08, 2018, 07:35:15 pm
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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: PSOL on September 08, 2018, 08:17:06 pm
After the debate, the post-debate host at SVT, Martina Nord said that Jimmie Åkesson had been "blatantly stereotyping" in his remarks on immigration, and that SVT, the state broadcaster, dissociates itself from those remarks. This is completely crazy. That a state broadcaster actively attacks one party straight after the most important debate of the campaign. Crazy. Atleast SD doesn't need to worry about a campaign point and attention for the last hours of the campaign.

Here's more about the last-minute Jimmie Åkesson / SVT spat and what it's all about:

During the final debate, Åkesson said the following: "Why do immigrants in Sweden have such a high unemployment rate ? Because they are not Swedish, they do not belong here. And because of that, nobody hires them."

... which caused the SVT TV channel to disassociate themselves (!) from his comments.

Not sure why a TV channel would have to disassociate from free speech or a debate comment by a major party leader. The comment wasn't even racist or particularly extremist. More like the plain truth. In fact, Sweden has one of the widest gaps among Western countries between the native Swedish unemployment rate (some 3-4%) and that of immigrants (some 15-20%). The overall unemployment rate is some 7% right now.

Those comments are xenophobic even if they were correct, when you're a political leaders your words are powerful and he should've been extremely careful with his language,
They aren’t correct, the refugees can’t get jobs due to swedish law barring them to for recent arrivals. For long term unemployment there is the issue of the system in place dealing with people ravaged by war with language and skill barriers in the worst migration disaster since WWII

So, there are no integration issues whatsoever that are a part of the problem?

Don't you think someone who does not fully integrate into Swedish culture and does not learn the language bears part of the responsibility for the lack of opportunities?
How can they integrate if structurally they are barred from unemployment. With language it is a problem of lack of resources, the government can fix it by putting money into specialized classes for that. I’m just stating out that the logic of them not being Swedish is why they are not employed like regular Swedes is flawed thinking.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on September 09, 2018, 12:23:49 am
A representative of the Danish public broadcaster DR said they would never make such a statement to dissociate themselves from a politician making such a statement.

There's a big difference between DR and SVT.

SVT was fined by the Broadcasting Authority last year for failing to distance themselves from a similarly racist comment by another Sweden Democrat, Mattias Karlsson, made in a debate in Aktuellt. So with that in mind, it's understandable why they acted as they did on Friday, they simply want to avoid getting fined again.

SVT's broadcasting permit includes what is referred to as a "democracy paragraph", which reads roughly as follows: "[SVT] has an obligation to distance themselves from or respond to anti-democratic expressions and combat racial prejudice, violence and brutality"


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 01:39:31 am
A representative of the Danish public broadcaster DR said they would never make such a statement to dissociate themselves from a politician making such a statement.

There's a big difference between DR and SVT.

SVT was fined by the Broadcasting Authority last year for failing to distance themselves from a similarly racist comment by another Sweden Democrat, Mattias Karlsson, made in a debate in Aktuellt. So with that in mind, it's understandable why they acted as they did on Friday, they simply want to avoid getting fined again.

SVT's broadcasting permit includes what is referred to as a "democracy paragraph", which reads roughly as follows: "[SVT] has an obligation to distance themselves from or respond to anti-democratic expressions and combat racial prejudice, violence and brutality"

How ridiculous is that ?? ??

Even "Radio Sweden", SVT's sister radio station, reports the following:

Quote
"The country's new arrivals have the country's highest unemployment rate."

Quote
In Gävleborg, unemployment among home-grown people has fallen to low 4.9 percent. However, among foreigners, the situation is the opposite, 35 percent or more than every third-born person is out of work.

"It is tougher for the one who is born abroad to enter the labor market, than it is for a Swedish.

According to Jeannette Radstake-Gustavsson, Managing Director at the Employment Service in Gävle. And a job - yes, that's what the newcomer to Sweden needs most of all.

The job gives not only income but also language skills and insights into Swedish customs and practice. But getting that job is not easy at all - says Zinah Al-Daloo in Gävle who really tried:

"It's really hard to find a job - I'm struggling a lot with every day! I'm from another country, I speak a different language and look different, it's really hard to seek a job, she says.

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=99&artikel=7036815

So, "Radio Sweden" is allowed to post a full article stating the obvious facts on their website, but Jimmie Åkesson is not allowed to do so in a debate because of some dubious politically correct "democracy paragraph" ?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 01:40:56 am
Btw, the polls are now open and close at 8pm local time (2pm Eastern).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 01:48:52 am
Early voting:

2.75 million people have voted early vs. 2.67 million in 2014 and 2.38 million in 2010.

7.49 million people are eligible to vote vs. 7.33 million in 2014 and 7.12 million in 2010.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on September 09, 2018, 01:57:03 am
A representative of the Danish public broadcaster DR said they would never make such a statement to dissociate themselves from a politician making such a statement.

There's a big difference between DR and SVT.

SVT was fined by the Broadcasting Authority last year for failing to distance themselves from a similarly racist comment by another Sweden Democrat, Mattias Karlsson, made in a debate in Aktuellt. So with that in mind, it's understandable why they acted as they did on Friday, they simply want to avoid getting fined again.

SVT's broadcasting permit includes what is referred to as a "democracy paragraph", which reads roughly as follows: "[SVT] has an obligation to distance themselves from or respond to anti-democratic expressions and combat racial prejudice, violence and brutality"

How ridiculous is that ?? ??

Even "Radio Sweden", SVT's sister radio station, reports the following:

Quote
"The country's new arrivals have the country's highest unemployment rate."

Quote
In Gävleborg, unemployment among home-grown people has fallen to low 4.9 percent. However, among foreigners, the situation is the opposite, 35 percent or more than every third-born person is out of work.

"It is tougher for the one who is born abroad to enter the labor market, than it is for a Swedish.

According to Jeannette Radstake-Gustavsson, Managing Director at the Employment Service in Gävle. And a job - yes, that's what the newcomer to Sweden needs most of all.

The job gives not only income but also language skills and insights into Swedish customs and practice. But getting that job is not easy at all - says Zinah Al-Daloo in Gävle who really tried:

"It's really hard to find a job - I'm struggling a lot with every day! I'm from another country, I speak a different language and look different, it's really hard to seek a job, she says.

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=99&artikel=7036815

So, "Radio Sweden" is allowed to post a full article stating the obvious facts on their website, but Jimmie Åkesson is not allowed to do so in a debate because of some dubious politically correct "democracy paragraph" ?

"They are not Swedish, they do not belong here"

There are no facts involved in that statement. It's racism, plain and simple.

Usually SD are good at hiding their racism in debates and speeches, but Åkesson really showed their true colours there.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 02:06:26 am
A representative of the Danish public broadcaster DR said they would never make such a statement to dissociate themselves from a politician making such a statement.

There's a big difference between DR and SVT.

SVT was fined by the Broadcasting Authority last year for failing to distance themselves from a similarly racist comment by another Sweden Democrat, Mattias Karlsson, made in a debate in Aktuellt. So with that in mind, it's understandable why they acted as they did on Friday, they simply want to avoid getting fined again.

SVT's broadcasting permit includes what is referred to as a "democracy paragraph", which reads roughly as follows: "[SVT] has an obligation to distance themselves from or respond to anti-democratic expressions and combat racial prejudice, violence and brutality"

How ridiculous is that ?? ??

Even "Radio Sweden", SVT's sister radio station, reports the following:

Quote
"The country's new arrivals have the country's highest unemployment rate."

Quote
In Gävleborg, unemployment among home-grown people has fallen to low 4.9 percent. However, among foreigners, the situation is the opposite, 35 percent or more than every third-born person is out of work.

"It is tougher for the one who is born abroad to enter the labor market, than it is for a Swedish.

According to Jeannette Radstake-Gustavsson, Managing Director at the Employment Service in Gävle. And a job - yes, that's what the newcomer to Sweden needs most of all.

The job gives not only income but also language skills and insights into Swedish customs and practice. But getting that job is not easy at all - says Zinah Al-Daloo in Gävle who really tried:

"It's really hard to find a job - I'm struggling a lot with every day! I'm from another country, I speak a different language and look different, it's really hard to seek a job, she says.

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=99&artikel=7036815

So, "Radio Sweden" is allowed to post a full article stating the obvious facts on their website, but Jimmie Åkesson is not allowed to do so in a debate because of some dubious politically correct "democracy paragraph" ?

"They are not Swedish, they do not belong here"

There are no facts involved in that statement. It's racism, plain and simple.

Usually SD are good at hiding their racism in debates and speeches, but Åkesson really showed their true colours there.

Sorry, but that's what I wrote ... my Swedish (and that of Google Translate) is not that good yet.

Let's use Diouf's translation instead. I think he understands Swedish much better than I do:

Precise description and translation:

Jimmie Åkesson: "If only the immigrants get jobs, then everything will solve itself". That is what all the others (pointing at other party leaders) have always said. But that still isn't happening. Therefore one must ask why it is so hard for these people to get a job. That is because these people are not Swedish. They don't fit into Sweden. It is obvious that it is then hard to get a job.

Annie Lööf interrupting: How can you talk in this way!?!?!

Jimmie Åkesson: It is obvious that it is then hard to get a job. You have to actually do what is required to become Swedish.

"They don't fit into Sweden." is not the same as my faulty translation: "They do not belong."

What Åkesson says here is that a large number of immigrants have problems integrating into Swedish society because their culture is so different to the Swedish one, which creates all kinds of problems, incl. not being hired by Swedish companies.

That is something totally legitimate to say and is far from racist. Immigrants are not a race either. You should clearly be able to speak about these problems on SVT, without being disassociated. Why would a Swedish insurance company boss for example hire a Muslim immigrant from Somalia or Pakistan, who doesn't speak Swedish, wears a niqab at work and refuses to take it off ? Or a male one who refuses to speak or co-operate with the other sex because of his perverted religious views ?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on September 09, 2018, 02:34:12 am
I am Swedish, I watched the debate on friday and understood what he said perfectly well, so I don't need it explained to me by you or anyone else thank you very much.

He said that the reason immigrants don't get jobs is because they're not Swedish, because they don't belong. Then, when Annie Lööf and other party leaders reacted to his blatant racism he tried to walk it back by talking about language education and all that other stuff, but it doesn't change what he said.

Just like Mattias Karlsson's talk about "hundreds of thousands of rapists coming here" and Richard Jomshof's talk about how they have to moderate their rhetoric for the moment because "Sweden isn't Hungary - yet", it shows just what kind of party SD is.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 02:44:43 am
I am Swedish, I watched the debate on friday and understood what he said perfectly well, so I don't need it explained to me by you or anyone else thank you very much.

He said that the reason immigrants don't get jobs is because they're not Swedish, because they don't belong. Then, when Annie Lööf and other party leaders reacted to his blatant racism he tried to walk it back by talking about language education and all that other stuff, but it doesn't change what he said.

Just like Mattias Karlsson's talk about "hundreds of thousands of rapists coming here" and Richard Jomshof's talk about how they have to moderate their rhetoric for the moment because "Sweden isn't Hungary - yet", it shows just what kind of party SD is.

While the SD's talk about immigrants often gets too excessive and extreme, in essence, he's right about what he says about many immigrants who recently arrived and how far removed they are from Swedish culture.

You are really disputing the fact that because of the 100.000s of additional immigrants from Africa and the Middle-East, rapes did not increase in Sweden by a lot ? You dispute the fact that immigrants from these areas now account for 80% of rape suspects these days ? You dispute the fact that these raped Swedish women would be un-raped now if these immigrants would have been kept out of the country in the first place ?

Please WAKE UP for once and stop tolerating these abuses to the Swedish people.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Velasco on September 09, 2018, 02:57:19 am
Apparently Swedish police does not keep stats on ethnicity and crime, so the claim of Tender Branson has a certain fake news flavour.

https://www.thelocal.se/20180508/why-sweden-doesnt-keep-stats-on-ethnic-background-and-crime

Quote
It doesn't take much effort to find articles claiming to have the 'truth' about the relationship between immigrants or refugees and Swedish crime. Yet the real truth is that there is no up-to-date public data on the ethnic background of criminals in the country, with existing figures more than a decade old.

Please, please, please...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Lord Marbury on September 09, 2018, 03:23:44 am
I am Swedish, I watched the debate on friday and understood what he said perfectly well, so I don't need it explained to me by you or anyone else thank you very much.

He said that the reason immigrants don't get jobs is because they're not Swedish, because they don't belong. Then, when Annie Lööf and other party leaders reacted to his blatant racism he tried to walk it back by talking about language education and all that other stuff, but it doesn't change what he said.

Just like Mattias Karlsson's talk about "hundreds of thousands of rapists coming here" and Richard Jomshof's talk about how they have to moderate their rhetoric for the moment because "Sweden isn't Hungary - yet", it shows just what kind of party SD is.

While the SD's talk about immigrants often gets too excessive and extreme, in essence, he's right about what he says about many immigrants who recently arrived and how far removed they are from Swedish culture.

You are really disputing the fact that because of the 100.000s of additional immigrants from Africa and the Middle-East, rapes did not increase in Sweden by a lot ? You dispute the fact that immigrants from these areas now account for 80% of rape suspects these days ? You dispute the fact that these raped Swedish women would be un-raped now if these immigrants would have been kept out of the country in the first place ?

Please WAKE UP for once and stop tolerating these abuses to the Swedish people.

I actually prefer listening to researchers and experts rather than raving populists and racists. Like criminologists who actually who actually work with these issues and know far more about than some random guy on Twitter or a forum who seems to think that an opinion based on gut feelings and cherry-picked data is worth the same as an opinion based on years of peer-reviewed research.

I don't dispute that rape numbers in Sweden have gone up if you just look at raw statistics, and I don't dispute that there may be an overrepresentation of individuals with an immigrant background. However I also don't dispute the fact that the rape definition has been broadened at several points over the past 15 years which makes it far more difficult to get a true picture of the situation than you seem to think. I also don't dispute the fact that rape is one of the most underreported crimes in the world and a majority of rapes go unreported in every country in the world - but Sweden may be the furthest ahead in the share of reported rapes in part because of the broad definition but also due to an active political ambition over the past 30 years to reduce the number of rapes that go unreported.

I base this view on actually listening to experts, not by following alt-right "news" sites or opinionated people on Twitter. Which is why I'm also aware that there are a great deal of addittional factors than culture which influence why people commit rapes, murders or burglaries, such a socio-economic factors. But the far-right never seems interested in those.

I do dispute the attitude that you and others on the alt-right seem to have that rape is only an important issue when it's committed by immigrants. I don't hear you or others talk about the fact that the overwhelming majority of rapes are committed in someone's own home by someone the victims knows - most often their spouse. I only hear them care about rape victims when the man responsible is an immigrant - and in that case pretty much only when the rapist has another skin color, the don't seem to get too upset when a rape is committed by a Finnish or German immigrant.

I do dispute the fact that people like you or Jimmie Åkesson for that matter only seems to care about gender equality or women's rights when they see it as under attack by immigrants, but when it's an ethnically Swedish (or Austrian) man attacking those rights all I hear from your direction is silence. Or worse, the far-right are the ones attacking women's rights, just like SD are doing when they want to limit access to safe abortions.

I also dispute the idea of generalizing about entire groups of people because there exists a minority of criminals in that group - because every single nationality has criminals. It would be like me saying that every Austrian is a potential pedophile or every Finn is a potential knife-wielding murderer. It's crass, stupid and lowers the level of intellectual discourse to a moronically low level.

Please, for your own sake, stop talking about Sweden like you actually know anything about the situation in the country. Because every single post I've seen you make here makes it clear that you don't know anything.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 09, 2018, 03:38:15 am

"They are not Swedish, they do not belong here"

There are no facts involved in that statement. It's racism, plain and simple.

Usually SD are good at hiding their racism in debates and speeches, but Åkesson really showed their true colours there.
"They are not Swedish" is a pretty factual statement for people who do not hold Swedish citizenship. For Åkesson, the idea that "they do not belong here" follows, which is indeed value-based: others may disagree. Every politician uses basic facts and, based on their values, draws certain conclusions from these facts that others might not necessarily follow. Politics is still about ideas, so "there are no facts involved here" doesn't necessarily tell us much about the value of a statement, unless people get their facts wrong (which Åkesson doesn't, even if you may disagree with him).

If I were Swedish, I would have been undecided between AfS and SD for a long time, but ultimately I'd go for SD and this comment would definitely have helped in making up my mind.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 03:40:57 am
Apparently Swedish police does not keep stats on ethnicity and crime, so the claim of Tender Branson has a certain fake news flavour.

https://www.thelocal.se/20180508/why-sweden-doesnt-keep-stats-on-ethnic-background-and-crime

Quote
It doesn't take much effort to find articles claiming to have the 'truth' about the relationship between immigrants or refugees and Swedish crime. Yet the real truth is that there is no up-to-date public data on the ethnic background of criminals in the country, with existing figures more than a decade old.

Please, please, please...

Yes, it is unfortunate that Swedish government try to cover over this problem by not making statistics on this very important area.
Luckily a few journalists have actually bothered to do this work in some areas.

For example the below research that shows, that of all sentenced for rape in Sweden between 2012 - 2017, 58% were born abroad. Quite a significant overrepresentation.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/granskning/ug/ny-kartlaggning-av-valdtaktsdomar-58-procent-av-de-domda-fodda-utomlands


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 04:20:35 am
Early voting:

2.75 million people have voted early vs. 2.67 million in 2014 and 2.38 million in 2010.

7.49 million people are eligible to vote vs. 7.33 million in 2014 and 7.12 million in 2010.

This clearly indicates to me that turnout will be lower this year. Early voting has hardly increased at all. There have been instances even when early voting has increased a lot, where the final turnout tally has decreased in the end. Also, because of the huge increase in the support for SD, there's not really any viable majority government in sight this time around, which could further suppress turnout. And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 09, 2018, 04:50:15 am
And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.
Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Velasco on September 09, 2018, 04:55:38 am
Apparently Swedish police does not keep stats on ethnicity and crime, so the claim of Tender Branson has a certain fake news flavour.

https://www.thelocal.se/20180508/why-sweden-doesnt-keep-stats-on-ethnic-background-and-crime

Quote
It doesn't take much effort to find articles claiming to have the 'truth' about the relationship between immigrants or refugees and Swedish crime. Yet the real truth is that there is no up-to-date public data on the ethnic background of criminals in the country, with existing figures more than a decade old.

Please, please, please...

Yes, it is unfortunate that Swedish government try to cover over this problem by not making statistics on this very important area.
Luckily a few journalists have actually bothered to do this work in some areas.

For example the below research that shows, that of all sentenced for rape in Sweden between 2012 - 2017, 58% were born abroad. Quite a significant overrepresentation.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/granskning/ug/ny-kartlaggning-av-valdtaktsdomar-58-procent-av-de-domda-fodda-utomlands

To begin with, claiming that 80% of rap suspects are foreigners without statistical evidence is just propaganda. I think the reasons why that statistical data is no longer kept are pretty well explained in the article I linked. According the experts interviewed. the figures are pretty stable in the different researches made over the years, so maybe the importance of collecting that statistical data is relative. Anyway, despite data without elaboration can be manipulated for populist means, possibly it'd be better to have statistics. In any case the researches concluded that, while a vast majority of immigrants have no connection with crime, the risk is higher among people born outside the country. However, it seems that it diminishes with second generation immigrants. Factors like age, gender, income and level of education have to be measured as well. because in all likelihood they have an impact in crime rates. Finally, an interesting fact is mentioned in the article: according to UK police statistics show a disproportionate amount of ethnic minorities stopped ans searched by the police. Possibly black people in the USA would gave something to say on the matter. I mean, we are talking about complex issues that need a more nuanced approach than that of Breitbart News or Mr Akesson. I hope that Swedes don't forget where SD come from...  


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 05:02:52 am
And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.
Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 09, 2018, 05:06:53 am
The jokes about an S&M government write themselves. It is the Swedish people who will be hurt.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 05:14:51 am
The jokes about an S&M government write themselves. It is the Swedish people who will be hurt.

LOL, in what way? I realize that the two parties are way too far away from each other, especially on economic policy, that there's even a 1% chance of that to happen after this election, but at least it would create some kind of a semi stable government, something Sweden has been lacking recently. Swedish politics has been a complete chaos for the last decade or so. Chaos doesn't benefit anyone in my opinion, and it makes protest parties like SD so much stronger and more forceful as a result. (I realize you are a super strong supporter of SD, sadly. You can want a decrease in the number of newly arrived immigrants without having to destort into voting for a party with such a blatantly racist past, and even present with all the exclusions still going on till this day. I believe Moderates and KD have said they want fewer (new) immigrants and even the current S prime minister has been saying similar things. I believe it's a thing that is naturally going to happen no matter who ends up leading the government in the end.)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: King Francis I on September 09, 2018, 05:19:10 am
The jokes about an S&M government write themselves. It is the Swedish people who will be hurt.

LOL, in what way? I realize that the two parties are way too far away from each other, especially on economic policy, that there's even a 1% chance of that to happen after this election, but at least it would create some kind of a semi stable government, something Sweden has been lacking recently. Swedish politics has been a complete chaos for the last decade or so. Chaos doesn't benefit anyone in my opinion, and it makes protest parties like SD so much stronger and more forceful as a result. (I realize you are a super strong supporter of SD, sadly. You can want a decrease in the number of newly arrived immigrants without having to destort into voting for a party with such a blatantly racist past, and even present with all the exclusions still going on till this day. I believe Moderates and KD have said they want fewer (new) immigrants and even the current S prime minister has been saying similar things. I believe it's a thing that is naturally going to happen no matter who ends up leading the government in the end.)
Well,
I think SD is going to deport a lot of migrants if they come to power, so there is a difference in terms of policies.
Additionnally, a M-SD govt isn't going to stop the rise of the SD, it's better them to join a rightwing government with vague measures to appease the psychological  phobias of their electors rather than ending up in a situation they will continue to rise.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DC Al Fine on September 09, 2018, 05:26:57 am
And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.
Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.

::)

Holocaust, tax cuts. Tomayto tomahto.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 05:31:49 am
Btw, "Radio Sweden" has a few interesting English language contents such as the "Political Compass" where you can find out which party you are closest to:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6981866

And interviews in English with each party leader:

https://sverigesradio.se/sida/gruppsida.aspx?programid=2054&grupp=27436

My results:

MP: 71%
FI: 69%
V: 67%
S: 59%
L: 46%
C: 44%
KD: 38%
M: 37%
SD: 25%

Sounds almost 100% correct to me. I'm genuinely surprised that C scores so high and L so low though, but I realize that the Norwegian counterparts to these parties are quite different. Swedish C is much more moderate and less agrarian than the Norwegian one, while I suspect Swedish Liberals to be quite a bit to the right of the Norwegian one, even if even the Norwegian Liberals have been moving to the right for the last decade or two and now even is a part of our really quite far-right government. I always score really high with the Norwegian Liberals in Norwegian compasses, mostly because they value the environment higher than almost any other party, but also because they're the only right side party to truely value multiculturalism and all the good sides brought on by immigration, which is not often valued in political discussions sadly, since politics in its rawest sense is about fixing problems, not valuing all the positive aspects of one's culture.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 05:33:51 am
And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.
Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.

::)

Holocaust, tax cuts. Tomayto tomahto.

Why are you bringing up holocaust? What on earth? How does that have anything to do with what I wrote?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 05:35:21 am
The jokes about an S&M government write themselves. It is the Swedish people who will be hurt.

LOL, in what way? I realize that the two parties are way too far away from each other, especially on economic policy, that there's even a 1% chance of that to happen after this election, but at least it would create some kind of a semi stable government, something Sweden has been lacking recently. Swedish politics has been a complete chaos for the last decade or so. Chaos doesn't benefit anyone in my opinion, and it makes protest parties like SD so much stronger and more forceful as a result. (I realize you are a super strong supporter of SD, sadly. You can want a decrease in the number of newly arrived immigrants without having to destort into voting for a party with such a blatantly racist past, and even present with all the exclusions still going on till this day. I believe Moderates and KD have said they want fewer (new) immigrants and even the current S prime minister has been saying similar things. I believe it's a thing that is naturally going to happen no matter who ends up leading the government in the end.)
Well,
I think SD is going to deport a lot of migrants if they come to power, so there is a difference in terms of policies.
Additionnally, a M-SD govt isn't going to stop the rise of the SD, it's better them to join a rightwing government with vague measures to appease the psychological  phobias of their electors rather than ending up in a situation they will continue to rise.

You mean an M+S government. It's confusing even to me, as both parties in theory could be shortened to SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DC Al Fine on September 09, 2018, 05:43:32 am
And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.
Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.

::)

Holocaust, tax cuts. Tomayto tomahto.

Why are you bringing up holocaust? What on earth? How does that have anything to do with what I wrote?

You called tax cuts for the rich a crime against humanity. The holocaust is a crime against humanity. Putting tax cuts in the same category as state sponsored genocide is a hyperbolic farce.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 06:06:40 am
And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.
Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.

::)

Holocaust, tax cuts. Tomayto tomahto.

Why are you bringing up holocaust? What on earth? How does that have anything to do with what I wrote?

You called tax cuts for the rich a crime against humanity. The holocaust is a crime against humanity. Putting tax cuts in the same category as state sponsored genocide is a hyperbolic farce.

It depends on the size of the tax cuts. Unless you live in the US, tax cuts do not come alone, as politicians in most other countries are reasonably responsible and don't want to create too much of a deficit. That means, in most cases, cutting drastically in welfare programmes and help to the poor, which means poverty rising quite significantly. That's what I meant with crimes against humanity, not the tax cuts themselves. I'm sure that Bernie Sanders would not disagree with my assertion, and I think quite a lot of people, especially the poor, think and believe the same way. I believe the world has two main, existential challenges going forward over the next century or so. One is quite obvious one, dealing with the environment (plastic pollution, global warming, deforestation, desertification and overpopulation being the main threats) and the other one is the unspeakable, ludicrous income inequality in the world today, both between countries and within countries. Both are major crimes against humanity in my opinion. You and others are free to disagree.

Both of these major threats are the main culprits for creating refugees in today's world and both can very easily, and even likely, lead to war. Many scientists have for decades warned that water shortages in parts of the world, especially in the Middle East and Africa, could one day lead to a major regional war. This is just one of tens if not hundreds of examples of consequences from these two threats that could potentially lead to a war breaking out. If not wars are crimes against humanity, then certainly nothing is.

(Btw, it was not the tax cuts, but the income inequality that I meant was the crime against humanity. I guess I wasn't clear enough about that.)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: EPG on September 09, 2018, 06:18:22 am
I don't see how anyone could support a party that still harbours lots of neo-Nazis, unless they have no problem with anti-Semitism. Evidence is that when these kind of people get into power, anti-Semitic rhetoric like Soros derangement becomes mainstream.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: reciprocity on September 09, 2018, 06:27:57 am
MP 79%
V 74%
FI 67%
S 65%
SD 36%
KD 32%
C 31%
M 29%
L 28%


I guess when you say high speed rail investment is a priority, you get the Greens as #1.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 09, 2018, 06:29:07 am
I don't see how anyone could support a party that still harbours lots of neo-Nazis, unless they have no problem with anti-Semitism. Evidence is that when these kind of people get into power, anti-Semitic rhetoric like Soros derangement becomes mainstream.
SD are the only party that seek to end mass immigration (i.e. the biggest threat to Jews in Sweden) and the most pro-Israeli party too. In other words, they are the most pro-Jewish party in Sweden. Whether or not there are some people in SD who have questionable views about Jews is irrelevant to me, as long as it is not part of representatives' official rhetoric.

Criticizing Soros is not necessarily antisemitic. Funny how people who defend Soros always play this card when it comes to Israel, but not when it comes to Soros.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 09, 2018, 06:32:41 am
How long the voting will last and are there any websites who shows results live?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on September 09, 2018, 06:36:33 am
The jokes about an S&M government write themselves. It is the Swedish people who will be hurt.

Considering that in Sweden SD seems to be about as toxic as AfD in Germany, it's only fitting that a "grand coalition" would be the best exit.

Though the numbers don't fit for a grand coalition in Sweden, but Sweden is also not afraid of minority governments (unlike Germany) so it could work, or alternatively just bring C and L in.

Though IMO the best option would be for whichever party has the most seats (in this case probably S, but possibly SD) to form a minority government by default. And if the rest want to bring them down, just have a no confidence vote with a viable majority government.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 06:39:23 am
How long the voting will last and are there any websites who shows results live?

Yes, that is much more interesting than a discussion on who is a crypto-antisemite.  Anyway I think exit polls come out at 2PM EST.

I found this line to results
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

Hopefully
https://www.svt.se/

will have live stream


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on September 09, 2018, 06:46:06 am
As a leftist I do believe the wealthy should pay more in taxation, however, we've seen in France during Hollande (75% Tax) how some wealthy french families left France to Belgium, London and Switzerland.
The french treasury lost a lot of revenue as a result..

Unfortunately greed is what motivates some people, Adam Smith talked about it, he praised greed at the beginning of his writings he was later horrified when he saw the enslavement of people and cruel nature of humankind in the Carribbean and Virginia.

I believe the wealthy should pay more, but we also saw time after time when taxes are so high wealthy people would move to another country...

That would be why an organisation that can do something about it, like, say, the EU, would be a good thing...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DC Al Fine on September 09, 2018, 06:47:51 am
And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.
Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.

Even if S does become the largest party, it will be really hard for them to claim legitimacy in order to form a government when their share of the vote will be the lowest they've registered in the ballot box since at least 1911, possible even further back than that.

My preferred government would be a majority one involving the three left parties plus liberal Folkpartiet, plus I guess either Centern or KD, though I really wouldn't mind a big coalition one in the spirit of Germany and The Netherlands involving Social Democrats and the Moderates, as long as the Moderate Party doesn't become the largest one. As we know from Norway and almost all other countries in the world, a modern day government lead by a conservative party means extreme slashing of taxes for the rich and as a result an enormous increase in the gap between rich and poor in the population overall. Basically a crime against humanity if you ask me, and a completely irresponsible policy idea.

::)

Holocaust, tax cuts. Tomayto tomahto.

Why are you bringing up holocaust? What on earth? How does that have anything to do with what I wrote?

You called tax cuts for the rich a crime against humanity. The holocaust is a crime against humanity. Putting tax cuts in the same category as state sponsored genocide is a hyperbolic farce.

It depends on the size of the tax cuts. Unless you live in the US, tax cuts do not come alone, as politicians in most other countries are reasonably responsible and don't want to create too much of a deficit. That means, in most cases, cutting drastically in welfare programmes and help to the poor, which means poverty rising quite significantly. That's what I meant with crimes against humanity, not the tax cuts themselves. I'm sure that Bernie Sanders would not disagree with my assertion, and I think quite a lot of people, especially the poor, think and believe the same way. I believe the world has two main, existential challenges going forward over the next century or so. One is quite obvious one, dealing with the environment (plastic pollution, global warming, deforestation, desertification and overpopulation being the main threats) and the other one is the unspeakable, ludicrous income inequality in the world today, both between countries and within countries. Both are major crimes against humanity in my opinion. You and others are free to disagree.

Both of these major threats are the main culprits for creating refugees in today's world and both can very easily, and even likely, lead to war. Many scientists have for decades warned that water shortages in parts of the world, especially in the Middle East and Africa, could one day lead to a major regional war. This is just one of tens if not hundreds of examples of consequences from these two threats that could potential lead to a war breaking out. If not wars are crimes against humanity, then certainly nothing is.

(Btw, it was not the tax cuts, but the income inequality that I meant was the crime against humanity. I guess I wasn't clear enough about that.)

Again, bad policy, even terrible policy (in your opinion) =/= state sponsored genocide. To put them in the same category  trivializes the term.


Criticizing Soros is not necessarily antisemitic. Funny how people who defend Soros always play this card when it comes to Israel, but not when it comes to Soros.

As an aside, I have been criticizing Soros for years and only became aware of his Judaism in like 2017. Guess I'm a raging anti-semite. You should probably stop associating with me :P


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: bigic on September 09, 2018, 06:50:36 am
And there's just no way that any of the left parties will cooperate with SD at all, which means it's a foregone conclusion that the right side of the spectrum will win the election overwhelmingly (Alliance + SD), with something like a 15-20% margin over the three left parties.
Well, that's nothing new. Alliance + SD had a comfortable majority in 2014 too, but the Alliance still decided to squander it and allow the Red-Greens to completely ravage the country because of the SD scare. I suppose M won't allow this to happen again (never underestimate the center-right's lack of a backbone though), but an S-led government still seems like a real possibility to me. If the Red-Greens become bigger than the Alliance and S has something like a 5-point lead over M, which are both extremely likely, S may want to take the initiative to form a government.
The problem is that Centre and Liberal voters don't want this (according to Ipsos). Just 25% of Liberal voters want co-operation with Sweden Democrats, the figure for Centre voters is even lower - 8%. Although 64% of Moderate voters and 72% of Christian Democrat voters are in favour - but there is currently no M-SD-KD majority.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JonHawk on September 09, 2018, 06:50:53 am
I notice the foreign media are already shilling hard against Sweden Democrats. I think the debate where the SVT unnecessarily intervened and literally all parties being against SD will work in SD's favor. I think it will be close between SD and S maybe least than a point.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 06:51:58 am
As a leftist I do believe the wealthy should pay more in taxation, however, we've seen in France during Hollande (75% Tax) how some wealthy french families left France to Belgium, London and Switzerland.
The french treasury lost a lot of revenue as a result..

Unfortunately greed is what motivates some people, Adam Smith talked about it, he praised greed at the beginning of his writings he was later horrified when he saw the enslavement of people and cruel nature of humankind in the Carribbean and Virginia.

I believe the wealthy should pay more, but we also saw time after time when taxes are so high wealthy people would move to another country...

I agree, and I believe there are three ways to remedy this. Either by raising taxes on the rich incrementially and over a period of time, instead of doubling them one day to the next for instance. Another way is to raise taxes on luxury items, everything from cars and flights to certain types of unhealthy and environmentally-hostile meat. A third is to work across borders, to strife for a more supranational world. EU has started the process of harmonizing taxes already I believe, let's hope they'll have some success with it. Preferably you should do all three at the same time.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 06:57:19 am
How long the voting will last and are there any websites who shows results live?

Yes, that is much more interesting than a discussion on who is a crypto-antisemite.  Anyway I think exit polls come out at 2PM EST.

I found this line to results
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

Hopefully
https://www.svt.se/

will have live stream

There's a live stream you can follow here: https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/valg-i-sverige-1.11200732


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on September 09, 2018, 07:10:54 am
Actually, probably a bit late to be saying this. But it's interesting that most people seem to have predicted SD getting something in the low 20s, when that is pretty much the only score the pollsters haven't been predicting.

Mostly, the phone ones have had them in the high teens; while YouGov and Senitio have had them around 25%. So you might have though that 20-22% would be the one score SD don't get.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 07:17:10 am
Actually, probably a bit late to be saying this. But it's interesting that most people seem to have predicted SD getting something in the low 20s, when that is pretty much the only score the pollsters haven't been predicting.

Mostly, the phone ones have had them in the high teens; while YouGov and Senitio have had them around 25%. So you might have though that 20-22% would be the one score SD don't get.

I think that is more about SD over-performed their pre-election polls in 2014 by around 2.5% so if you add in that amount to SD's average polling last couple of days you get the low 20s.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 07:30:21 am
Actually, probably a bit late to be saying this. But it's interesting that most people seem to have predicted SD getting something in the low 20s, when that is pretty much the only score the pollsters haven't been predicting.

Mostly, the phone ones have had them in the high teens; while YouGov and Senitio have had them around 25%. So you might have though that 20-22% would be the one score SD don't get.

I think that is more about SD over-performed their pre-election polls in 2014 by around 2.5% so if you add in that amount to SD's average polling last couple of days you get the low 20s.

I think SD will get between 20% and 25%. I think there's about a 40% chance that they'll become the biggest party.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 07:36:40 am
On Betfair the odds of SD being the largest party is 3/3.15 which implies that it is around a 1 in 3 shot.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 09, 2018, 07:41:52 am
How long the voting will last and are there any websites who shows results live?

Yes, that is much more interesting than a discussion on who is a crypto-antisemite.  Anyway I think exit polls come out at 2PM EST.

I found this line to results
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

Hopefully
https://www.svt.se/

will have live stream

There's a live stream you can follow here: https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/valg-i-sverige-1.11200732


Why the hell Norwegian tv streams Swedish tv?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 07:49:23 am
How long the voting will last and are there any websites who shows results live?

Yes, that is much more interesting than a discussion on who is a crypto-antisemite.  Anyway I think exit polls come out at 2PM EST.

I found this line to results
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

Hopefully
https://www.svt.se/

will have live stream

There's a live stream you can follow here: https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/valg-i-sverige-1.11200732


Why the hell Norwegian tv streams Swedish tv?

Cause we're crazy about Sweden, we even have a joint talk show which has run in both countries for more than ten years now, and before that for about ten years in Norway only hehe. We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar. Also, until we found oil in the 1970s, Norwegians considered themselves Sweden's little brothers and most Norwegians loved watching Swedish TV, including children's programming. It was almost as popular as our own programming. Today of course, Sweden has become our little brothers in many respects, at least economically. As a result, Swedes have poured into our country during the past 15-20 years. Besides Poles, Swedes are our biggest immigrant work force due to our wages being 40% higher and our unemployment almost only half of that in Sweden.

PS: This is only a live stream for the election day broadcast, so it happens at most one day every four years hehe. I'm not sure if this is the first election day live stream or if they've done it for previous elections as well.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 08:01:15 am
Note that in 2014, the exit polls were not correct: just like the pre-election polls, they underestimated the SD by about 3%.

So, it's better to wait for the real results that are coming in instead of hyping the exit polls.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2018, 08:15:29 am
The level of analysis in this thread through the campaign has been really low - everyone insisting that whatever they wish to be so is an iron rule, when the reality is that things are quite uncertain. There are a lot of variables, there is a lot of information we don't have and the precedents to make assumptions on aren't fantastic. Would be nice if people were to raise their games slightly when the actual results come in.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 08:16:03 am
Note that in 2014, the exit polls were not correct: just like the pre-election polls, they underestimated the SD by about 3%.

So, it's better to wait for the real results that are coming in instead of hyping the exit polls.

You would think the exit pollsters might have learned a lesson from 2014 and adjusted their methodology.  In fact if they did there is as much risk they over-adjusted for the shy SD effect.  


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 09, 2018, 08:18:39 am
Well, less than 3% is considered as accepted statistical error in polls so all but Novus got SD result right.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 08:21:39 am
The level of analysis in this thread through the campaign has been really low - everyone insisting that whatever they wish to be so is an iron rule, when the reality is that things are quite uncertain. There are a lot of variables, there is a lot of information we don't have and the precedents to make assumptions on aren't fantastic. Would be nice if people were to raise their games slightly when the actual results come in.

What exactly are you getting at here? Can you be more specific?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 08:27:38 am
Note that in 2014, the exit polls were not correct: just like the pre-election polls, they underestimated the SD by about 3%.

So, it's better to wait for the real results that are coming in instead of hyping the exit polls.

You would think the exit pollsters might have learned a lesson from 2014 and adjusted their methodology.  In fact if they did there is as much risk they over-adjusted for the shy SD effect.  

I don't think there's a tradition among Scandinavian pollsters to adjust their methodology after elections in order to adjust to the election outcome, like it has been in the US and to a lesser extent perhaps in the UK. One reason might be because pollsters' predictions in Denmark, Sweden and Norway traditionally have been surprisingly accurate, although there always are a couple of parties whose support is off with a couple of percentage points or so. It's usually within 3 percentage points of where pollsters end up landing though.

This time however, we have seen a record high difference when it comes to internet polls such a YouGov and more traditional phone pollsters, especially regarding SD (where the difference has been up to 9-10% at most), but also to a large degree with S and M. So perhaps things will change after this election, if YouGov's numbers will come really close to the actual results.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 09, 2018, 08:29:36 am
Will V participate in minority government with SAP and MP if there will be only such option and Alliansen minority cabinet after elections?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 09, 2018, 08:42:48 am
Note that in 2014, the exit polls were not correct: just like the pre-election polls, they underestimated the SD by about 3%.

So, it's better to wait for the real results that are coming in instead of hyping the exit polls.

You would think the exit pollsters might have learned a lesson from 2014 and adjusted their methodology.  In fact if they did there is as much risk they over-adjusted for the shy SD effect.   

They have, here (https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/val-2018/sa-ska-svt-och-tv4-undvika-nytt-sd-fiasko/) is a Swedish news article about Exit pollsters having adjusted their methodology this year in order for them trying not too underestimate SD again.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 09:01:00 am
Sweden Democrats leader Åkesson receives death threat: party

https://www.thelocal.se/20180908/sweden-democrats-leader-kesson-receives-death-threat-party

This seems to be from Islamic State

(
Img
)

The letter reads

‘We will behead you if you do not withdraw from the election by the end of this week"

Perhaps IS is working secretly with SD ?  This will only push up the SD vote.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Mike88 on September 09, 2018, 09:09:26 am
Early voting data:

Until the moment, 2,726,338 voters cast an early ballot. The number could still increase. Here's the early votes numbers by district and compared with 2014:

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Img
)



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Aboa on September 09, 2018, 09:09:52 am
Will V participate in minority government with SAP and MP if there will be only such option and Alliansen minority cabinet after elections?
SAP minority government, which would offer more leeway for Löfven, would probably be likelier in that case.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 09:12:14 am
Sweden Democrats leader Åkesson receives death threat: party

https://www.thelocal.se/20180908/sweden-democrats-leader-kesson-receives-death-threat-party

This seems to be from Islamic State

(
Img
)

The letter reads

‘We will behead you if you do not withdraw from the election by the end of this week"

Perhaps IS is working secretly with SD ?  This will only push up the SD vote.


This could very well be fake, even produced within SD itself. Another and likely possibility is that it's genuine, as it has been obvious more or less since IS was created that there's nothing else they'd rather want than a clash or war between sivilisations, as that will only increase the support for IS. It's in both IS and SD's own interests to heighten this conflict, sadly. It's a win-win for both, and thus a loss for everyone else, the huge silent majority. Honestly, the media should not be reporting on this, just like satellite channels should not have live-streamed every single Trump rally during the 2015 an 2016 election campaign like they did. If we don't want a tabloid society based on fake stories and made up controversies, we should find a way to reduce this kind of journalism, even through laws if that becomes the only viable solution in the end. Even freedom of speech should have limits when it comes to hate rhetoric and hate propaganda. In this case, the hate propanganda is either a joint effort from both SD and IS, or, just as likely, if not more, a hoax perpetrated by SD alone in order to gin up anger and get their voters to the polls.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 09:20:37 am
Early voting data:

Until the moment, 2,726,338 voters cast an early ballot. The number could still increase. Here's the early votes numbers by district and compared with 2014:

(
Img
)



We can see from these numbers that early voting is up strongly where SD has traditionally had the most support, particularily in Skåne, while surprisingly it has substantially decreased in the regions where SD has had almost no support at all, mainly in the north of Sweden. This should be a huge worrying and warning sign for everyone who doesn't want SD to have a huge election night. If election day voting will look even remotely like this, I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that SD will become the largest party. However that is a big if of course.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Mopolis on September 09, 2018, 09:50:20 am
We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 09:58:01 am
We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

What?

Do you know anything about Norway and Sweden in order to have an opinion? The question from the Polish user was why on earth Norway would live-stream the election coverage of another national broadcaster. I tried to give him a qualified reasoning for why that would be the case, as even I find it slightly odd and certainly a novelty. How does that make me a racist? If I'm such a racist, why would I have spent my entire life to fight racism?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Singletxguyforfun on September 09, 2018, 09:59:03 am
Let’s go Swedish Democrats!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 10:01:34 am
Let’s go Swedish Democrats!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 09, 2018, 10:06:06 am


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: RedPrometheus on September 09, 2018, 10:07:14 am


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: NMR on September 09, 2018, 10:13:07 am


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Chateaubriand Pact on September 09, 2018, 10:16:39 am


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: rc18 on September 09, 2018, 10:17:42 am
Early voting data:

Until the moment, 2,726,338 voters cast an early ballot. The number could still increase. Here's the early votes numbers by district and compared with 2014:

(
Img
)



We can see from these numbers that early voting is up strongly where SD has traditionally had the most support, particularily in Skåne, while surprisingly it has substantially decreased in the regions where SD has had almost no support at all, mainly in the north of Sweden. This should be a huge worrying and warning sign for everyone who doesn't want SD to have a huge election night. If election day voting will look even remotely like this, I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that SD will become the largest party. However that is a big if of course.
It’s bit of a mixed bag but these figures seem broadly in line with what you might expect from the changes in party support since 2014 based on the polls. S areas generally taking the biggest hit, M a bit of both, and SD areas generally over performing. I think it really depends how many of those new voters in some more M leaning counties are voting SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JonHawk on September 09, 2018, 10:21:56 am


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Mopolis on September 09, 2018, 10:27:15 am
We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

What?

Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on September 09, 2018, 10:33:29 am

Can we not do this?

I don't come here to watch 5 year old Americans farting at each other


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: eric82oslo on September 09, 2018, 10:37:12 am
We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

What?

Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.

The question was what made Sweden and Norway so close that we would live-stream a foreign broadcaster. To ignore the common history of more than a 1,000 years then makes no sense.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Mopolis on September 09, 2018, 10:54:39 am
Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.

The question was what made Sweden and Norway so close that we would live-stream a foreign broadcaster. To ignore the common history of more than a 1,000 years then makes no sense.

And on a forum full of privileged white males like yourself, you can probably get away with that kind of self-centerdness (unfortunately). But it’s always preferable to practice sensitivity.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 11:13:26 am
Jimmie Åkesson (SD) just told reporters "he feels very optimistic about today and expects up to 30% of the vote."

Whatever this means ...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JonHawk on September 09, 2018, 11:32:32 am
Jimmie Åkesson (SD) just told reporters "he feels very optimistic about today and expects up to 30% of the vote."

Whatever this means ...

Would be pretty amazing if SD ends up in the upper 20s. Not sure if it will happen


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 11:33:58 am
Do we have any provisional turnout figures?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on September 09, 2018, 11:42:05 am

:P


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mvd10 on September 09, 2018, 11:44:16 am

Fixed it for you cuck :)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: King Francis I on September 09, 2018, 11:47:39 am
When will we have the first results?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 11:48:28 am

can you please stop


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Helsinkian on September 09, 2018, 12:02:29 pm
We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

What?

Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.

This kind of PC attitude is exactly the reason why SD is going to win.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: pilskonzept on September 09, 2018, 12:07:06 pm
We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

What?

Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.

Am I wrong in suggesting that migration was part of Viking culture?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Beezer on September 09, 2018, 12:10:32 pm
So will we get some exit polls at 8pm?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: rc18 on September 09, 2018, 12:15:42 pm
Jimmie Åkesson (SD) just told reporters "he feels very optimistic about today and expects up to 30% of the vote."

Whatever this means ...
I think the quote was 20 to 30 percent would be a reasonable voteshare, and it's probably in SD's interest to imply neither coalition has a chance at a majority whether true or not.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 12:16:08 pm
SVT1 will make an exit poll at 20.00, when polls close. They have already revealed two findings. 38% did not decide on their vote until the last week, a record high. 41% of voters changed party between 2014 and 2018.

Tv4 will publish an exit poll at 19.45


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: (CT) The Free North on September 09, 2018, 12:19:48 pm
Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.

The question was what made Sweden and Norway so close that we would live-stream a foreign broadcaster. To ignore the common history of more than a 1,000 years then makes no sense.

And on a forum full of privileged white males like yourself, you can probably get away with that kind of self-centerdness (unfortunately). But it’s always preferable to practice sensitivity.

My God you are insufferable. If you're going to continue to post this way, please do it in another thread.



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 12:29:39 pm
Tv4 will publish an exit poll at 19.45

Isn't that illegal ?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2018, 12:30:15 pm
Can everyone please behave? Keep the crassness to your various other Online haunts.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 12:31:12 pm
When will we have the first results?

At around 10pm to midnight.

I don't put much credibility into the exit polls ...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on September 09, 2018, 12:32:00 pm
SVT1 will make an exit poll at 20.00, when polls close. They have already revealed two findings. 38% did not decide on their vote until the last week, a record high. 41% of voters changed party between 2014 and 2018.

Tv4 will publish an exit poll at 19.45

What time is it in Sweden now?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 12:33:36 pm
Tv4 will publish an exit poll at 19.45

Isn't that illegal ?

No, it's just edgy and wanting to be first. SVT's exit poll must be done as well since they are publishing nuggets of information, so it's just about them wanting a small lead. Hardly gonna affect anyone.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: (CT) The Free North on September 09, 2018, 12:33:41 pm
Apologies if its been posted before, but does anyone have a link to a stream where we can follow along with the results as they come in?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JonHawk on September 09, 2018, 12:33:47 pm
tv4 has a countdown from 13 minutes. might be an exit poll


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 12:35:18 pm
A picture that is probably similar in much of Europe. Share of voters changing parties between elections rising and rising.

(
Img
)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mvd10 on September 09, 2018, 12:35:58 pm
Are there things we should know about the Swedish exit polls? In the Netherlands the exit polls usually slightly favour left-wing parties since the cities are counted first, so right-wing parties usually slightly overperform compared to the exit polls.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 12:36:39 pm
Share of a party's voters saying the party leader was important for their choice.

(
Img
)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Beezer on September 09, 2018, 12:45:39 pm
Where's that 7:45 poll? Inject it right into my veins...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mvd10 on September 09, 2018, 12:46:42 pm
https://www.tv4play.se/program/nyheterna/11498234



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: seb_pard on September 09, 2018, 12:47:26 pm
9.8% for V, 25.4% for S at the moment


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mvd10 on September 09, 2018, 12:47:47 pm
Social democrats at 25.4% according to that thing, so I guess they win?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Beezer on September 09, 2018, 12:47:50 pm
Jesus f'ing Christ, get to the point...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mvd10 on September 09, 2018, 12:48:36 pm
Left-wing bloc at 41% according to these numbers btw


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: seb_pard on September 09, 2018, 12:48:53 pm
9.4% for C, actually very good.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: (CT) The Free North on September 09, 2018, 12:49:12 pm
The stream i'm watching is too busy showing the weather it seems. Stockholm appears to be in for a lovely 2nd half of the week. 


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 12:50:53 pm
TV4 exit poll. Company is Sifo. One of those pollsters, who has had SD at 16-17% normally.

S 25,4%
V 9,8%
MP 5,8%
C 9,4%
KD 6,6%
L 5,7%
M 18,4%
SD 16,3%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Beezer on September 09, 2018, 12:52:46 pm
My God, Swedish is an awful language. The guy sounds like he has a hot potato in his mouth.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Ebsy on September 09, 2018, 12:53:11 pm
Would be quite the remarkable result.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Aboa on September 09, 2018, 12:54:43 pm
Are there things we should know about the Swedish exit polls? In the Netherlands the exit polls usually slightly favour left-wing parties since the cities are counted first, so right-wing parties usually slightly overperform compared to the exit polls.
Here's 2014 SVT  prognosis based on exit poll and actual results:

V 6.6  (5.7)
SAP 31.1 (31.2)
MP 7.1 (6.8 )
C 6.5 (6.1)
L 6.0 (5.4)
KD 5.0 (4.6)
M 22.2 (23.2)
SD 10.5 (12.9)
FI 4.0 (3.1)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2018, 12:55:30 pm
SAP 25.4, V 9.8, MP 5.8 - 41.0
M 18.4, C 9.4, KD 6.6, L 5.7 - 40.1
SD 16.4


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 12:56:47 pm
It seems that the Center-Left and Center-Right blocs are neck to neck.  If true then SD must have lost some last minute support to M.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: EPG on September 09, 2018, 12:57:55 pm
Can everyone please behave? Keep the crassness to your various other Online haunts.

Too late. There is another thread about Brazil where the far-lefts and the far-rights are justifying murdering each other. I would say this whole enterprise is beyond saveable.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: IceAgeComing on September 09, 2018, 12:58:25 pm
Right so I know very little about Swedish politics so probably won't be posting a whole lot.

But surely this if this exit poll is correct then its a very bad result for the SDs?  I mean they might hold the balance of power between the two blocs but that isn't what they were aiming for in this election: and finishing third behind both of the major parties must be very disappointing for them?  If its right after all; luckily we get a certain set of data in a few minutes.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2018, 12:59:03 pm
Can everyone please behave? Keep the crassness to your various other Online haunts.

Too late. There is another thread about Brazil where the far-lefts and the far-rights are justifying murdering each other. I would say this whole enterprise is beyond saveable.

Dance, dance, the Weimar cosplay.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 01:00:26 pm
It seems that even if SD over-perform exit polls there is no way they will come in first.  At best a narrow victory over M for second place.  And that is a big if


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: (CT) The Free North on September 09, 2018, 01:00:39 pm
26.2 - S
19.2 - SD
17.8  - M

39.4 LB
39.6 RB


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 01:01:00 pm
SVT1 Exit Poll

V 9,0%
MP 4,2%
S 26,2%

C 8,9%
L 5,5%
KD 7,4%
M 17,8%

SD 19,2%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 01:01:07 pm
Pretty sure this poll is underestimating SD, sadly...

Edit: OK, the SVT1 figure looks about right.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 01:03:19 pm
Wow ... both exit polls seems to have both blocs neck-to-neck ...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 01:03:46 pm
I actually wonder whether the Greens could lose some potential tactical voting if the media start to focus a lot on Sweden Democrats potentially being the biggest party. Maybe some left-wingers will vote for the Social Democrats just to avoid that (even though it will probably have no effect on government formation whether Sweden Democrats are 1st or 2nd).

Based on SVT's poll, this could have happened. But Greens were far bigger in Tv4, so who knows


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: (CT) The Free North on September 09, 2018, 01:04:00 pm
Should be an entertaining night coming up then.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 01:06:44 pm
So when does counting start?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: DavidB. on September 09, 2018, 01:08:52 pm
I guess they deserve what they get. Goodnight, Sweden.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 01:09:45 pm
Anyone that has links to results other than

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 09, 2018, 01:10:23 pm
I guess they deserve what they get. Goodnight, Sweden.



There were no scenario in which SD will govern so I don't understand your saltiness.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 01:15:41 pm
Anyone that has links to results other than

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

Seconded.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: parochial boy on September 09, 2018, 01:16:58 pm
So, if we say that the most, "pro-refugee/immigrant" parties are C and V, then between them it looks as if they could have actually progressed more than SD? Even factoring the MP losing, it's still pretty even


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Omega21 on September 09, 2018, 01:18:09 pm
I guess they deserve what they get. Goodnight, Sweden.



There were no scenario in which SD will govern so I don't understand your saltiness.

That's exactly the saddest part.

Another great nation slowly going down the drain IMO.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 01:18:10 pm
Actual vote count:

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Also: please ignore the exit polls for now.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 09, 2018, 01:20:08 pm
Actual vote count:

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Also: please ignore the exit polls for now.


Why so?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 01:21:57 pm
Watching the SVT live stream I assume they will interview all parties except for SD who has boycotted SVT right ?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 01:21:59 pm
0 of 6.004 precincts counted so far.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 01:22:49 pm
Actual vote count:

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Also: please ignore the exit polls for now.


Why so?

Yeah. Even if exit polls will inevitably be off I think they to contain valuable information.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: afleitch on September 09, 2018, 01:25:09 pm
Did the compass thing. I got the Left Party. 2010 me is agog.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 01:25:25 pm
I didn't see any polling company mentioned by SVT, so maybe it's their own invention.

TV4 was made by Sifo, and is quite similar to the Sifo polls before the election, so we aren't much wiser about whether their methods are correct.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 09, 2018, 01:26:18 pm
0 of 6.004 precincts counted so far.


There is one already.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 09, 2018, 01:27:28 pm
Exit poll looks decent!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 09, 2018, 01:28:17 pm
Hopped in here from my twitter coverage...why are you still talking about the SweDems? This is a bigger story:

(
Img
)

One. Seat.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: The Saint on September 09, 2018, 01:30:18 pm
Following up from the post above:



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Mike88 on September 09, 2018, 01:31:57 pm
2 districts counted and M dropped almost 15% compared with 2014, SD increased 9.3%.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 01:34:47 pm
Voter movements on SVT showed that SD has drawn voters equally from S and M


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 01:35:15 pm
2 districts counted and M dropped almost 15% compared with 2014, SD increased 9.3%.

I think that the SVT exit poll once again underestimated the SD by about 3-4%, but it's still early.

I think the real vote count will put them to around 22-23% (which would be like my prediction).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 01:37:11 pm
Was it expected that the two coalitions would be so close to each other?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Izzyeviel on September 09, 2018, 01:38:42 pm
I guess they deserve what they get. Goodnight, Sweden.



There were no scenario in which SD will govern so I don't understand your saltiness.

That's exactly the saddest part.

Another great nation slowly going down the drain IMO.

I agree. Shame to see so many Swedes trust the far-right with their lives and vote. People never learn.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 01:38:49 pm
The official election site is horribly slow here......


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: rc18 on September 09, 2018, 01:38:52 pm
2 districts counted and M dropped almost 15% compared with 2014, SD increased 9.3%.
We are at the grand total of 453 votes and the KD are currently second...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 01:39:20 pm
2 districts counted and M dropped almost 15% compared with 2014, SD increased 9.3%.
We are at the grand total of 453 votes and the KD are currently second...


And for now there is a positive swing toward the Center-Left bloc ..


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on September 09, 2018, 01:39:47 pm
Actual vote count:

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Also: please ignore the exit polls for now.

This isn't working for me for some reason.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 01:41:17 pm
The official election site is horrible slow here......

I guess the request load must be massive given the international attention on the SD surge ..


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 01:41:24 pm
Election website is down.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 01:41:38 pm
Since the government website is slow and breaking down all the time, use the SVT results page:

https://valresultat.svt.se/2018/10000.html


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Mike88 on September 09, 2018, 01:42:45 pm
2 districts counted and M dropped almost 15% compared with 2014, SD increased 9.3%.
We are at the grand total of 453 votes and the KD are currently second...

Yeah, it's a really small sample, but if M is underpolling in their strongholds, it doesn't bode well for them and exit polls could be overperforming, big time, M. But, there's a long way to go yet.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: (CT) The Free North on September 09, 2018, 01:43:03 pm
Since the government website is slow and breaking down all the time, use the SVT results page:

https://valresultat.svt.se/2018/10000.html

This appears to be the best we have but the lack of a map is disappointing for obvious reasons.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2018, 01:44:32 pm
Was it expected that the two coalitions would be so close to each other?

Yes - nearly all polls had a Left lead within the MoE, often less than 1pt.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mgop on September 09, 2018, 01:44:57 pm
so right wing minority gov with support of sd. because with this result there is no way for left wing government.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Pennsylvania Deplorable on September 09, 2018, 01:45:41 pm
We used to be one country until 1905, we have the same viking heritage, our languages are just slight variations of each other, our cultures are very similar.

Racist.

What?

Your exclusionary language discriminates against millions of Swedes and Nords who have no Viking heritage and do not partake in the native culture.
They are not Swedes or Nords then (exception made for the native non-Germanic Sami up North) any more than I would be Khosian if I moved to Cape Town. Swedes, and indeed all ethic groups, have a right to celebrate and preserve their heritage.

Are there things we should know about the Swedish exit polls? In the Netherlands the exit polls usually slightly favour left-wing parties since the cities are counted first, so right-wing parties usually slightly overperform compared to the exit polls.
Here's 2014 SVT  prognosis based on exit poll and actual results:

V 6.6  (5.7)
SAP 31.1 (31.2)
MP 7.1 (6.8 )
C 6.5 (6.1)
L 6.0 (5.4)
KD 5.0 (4.6)
M 22.2 (23.2)
SD 10.5 (12.9)
FI 4.0 (3.1)

If this election is like the last few in Sweden, as well as many across Europe, SD will outperform polls due to social desirability bias. That said, they can't be happy with where the exit polls are putting them right now. The international media will make "far right wins big" the headline no matter what, but SD needs a minimum 20% and second place to be satisfied with the result.

Right now, V is the real winner, as they will either be needed to form a left wing government or they will be the primary left wing opposition to a grand coalition, and thus poised to grow even more at the expense of S.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Omega21 on September 09, 2018, 01:46:13 pm
I guess they deserve what they get. Goodnight, Sweden.



There were no scenario in which SD will govern so I don't understand your saltiness.

That's exactly the saddest part.

Another great nation slowly going down the drain IMO.

I agree. Shame to see so many Swedes trust the far-right with their lives and vote. People never learn.

Um, I'm pro SD, and I wouldn't call them far-right really...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Pennsylvania Deplorable on September 09, 2018, 01:50:16 pm
Actual vote count:

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Also: please ignore the exit polls for now.
This link isn't working for me. Is there anywhere else with a live results map?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2018, 01:50:20 pm
...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: (CT) The Free North on September 09, 2018, 01:51:05 pm
Actual vote count:

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Also: please ignore the exit polls for now.
This link isn't working for me. Is there anywhere else with a live results map?

The link has been down for a while.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: JonHawk on September 09, 2018, 01:52:16 pm
Good to see that horrid tv4 exit poll was wrong


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 01:53:00 pm
The count so far is not giving SD the swing it needs to go above 20% and M seems to be over-performing.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2018, 01:53:12 pm
Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 09, 2018, 01:53:33 pm
The count so far is not giving SD the swing it needs to go above 20% and M seems to be over-performing.

Good.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: (CT) The Free North on September 09, 2018, 01:54:15 pm
Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

But muh instant gratification


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 01:57:53 pm
Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

But muh instant gratification

Yeah, why take the fun out it.  Its like saying, do not bother watching the game since a late minute score might change the result.  Sure, but watching the game has intrinsic entertainment value.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 01:59:23 pm
Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

Election results counts aren't like polling two months from an election - they tend to converge pretty quickly on a result. I'm sure we'll have a clear picture of where things stand within an hour.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 01:59:45 pm
The results so far seems to imply a slight Center-Right lead over the Center-Left plus SD relative under-performance at a result a good deal below 20% and a clear third behind M.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on September 09, 2018, 02:00:00 pm
If anyone cares apparently this site has a results map

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 02:01:21 pm
If anyone cares apparently this site has a results map

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wEGeKP

I think that site is slower than the official results page.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: (CT) The Free North on September 09, 2018, 02:01:31 pm
Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

But muh instant gratification

Yeah, why take the fun out it.  Its like saying, do not bother watching the game since a late minute score might change the result.  Sure, but watching the game has intrinsic entertainment value.

I very much enjoy the game.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 02:02:56 pm
M seems to be over-performing, V and SD seem to be under-performing.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 02:04:20 pm
Good page with maps and changes compared with previous elections:

https://www.di.se/val/


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 02:04:59 pm
Now SVT has changed from their exit poll to showing results. But it seems to be just straight results, not a projection based on changes in the counted districts. The latter would have been much more helpful...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 02:05:29 pm

I very much enjoy the game.

Yes, in fact that is why the Brazil way of counting votes really sucks.  They count almost 90% of the result and then release it all at once.  They are taking all the fun out of it.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: pilskonzept on September 09, 2018, 02:06:01 pm
Results will take a while to slowly come together, you won't get complete numbers in the next five minutes. In fact you won't get complete results even by the end of the night, because there's always additional counting - of postals and so on - later. So calm down, take a walk, and stop pressing 'refresh' on the official results page.

Election results counts aren't like polling two months from an election - they tend to converge pretty quickly on a result. I'm sure we'll have a clear picture of where things stand within an hour.

Not with that sort of neck-to-neck race between the blocks.

Swedes will keep their calm anyway...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Mike88 on September 09, 2018, 02:10:20 pm
M seems to be over-performing, V and SD seem to be under-performing.
Yeah, it seems that my early reaction was a bit too pessimistic about M. Let's see if the trend continues.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 02:12:02 pm
Here is just the map for towns + changes compared with 2014:

http://ext.di.se/val2018/partiresultat.html

It's interesting that SD does not gain more than 13% so far in the cities counted.

Which means they will never go above 25-26% nationally. Most of their gains seems to be in the 8% range, which would point to a 21% result nationally.

1 town (Mariestad) has a decline compared with 2014 so far.

The highest increase so far is in Klippan with +12.5%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Pennsylvania Deplorable on September 09, 2018, 02:13:01 pm
Liberals and Greens are below the 4% threshold right now. Obviously, very few precincts have been counted and they should rise as Stockholm comes in, but it's something to watch out for.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 02:15:45 pm
At the bottom of the site you can click on:

Störst/minst stöd = strongest/weakest town for each party

Ökat/minskat mest = biggest gains/losses in each town compared with 2014

Select the party by clicking on their logo.

http://ext.di.se/val2018/partiresultat.html


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 02:18:42 pm
Only the clickable map:

http://ext.di.se/val2018/index.html


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 09, 2018, 02:19:35 pm
Sweden looks pretty in red 😁


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Omega21 on September 09, 2018, 02:23:43 pm
Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

Should be lit over the next few years, literally lol 🚗🔥


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 02:24:33 pm
Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

oh sweet summer child...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: tack50 on September 09, 2018, 02:24:51 pm
Now SVT has changed from their exit poll to showing results. But it seems to be just straight results, not a projection based on changes in the counted districts. The latter would have been much more helpful...

I personally prefer the former. It's fun to make hot takes from just a handful of polling places at 0.01% counted :P


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Helsinkian on September 09, 2018, 02:24:59 pm
Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

Still worst S result in over a century.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 09, 2018, 02:25:24 pm
Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

Should be lit over the next few years, literally lol 🚗🔥

Seriously though.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 02:27:00 pm
About 10% of the 6.000 precincts have been counted, but that is only 6.5% of the expected vote of 6.3 million so far.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 02:30:41 pm
It seems the biggest gains for SD so far are in central/southern Sweden near the border to Norway.

The Social Democrats actually have some gains in the Stockholm suburbs and other urban areas.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 09, 2018, 02:31:29 pm
On the bright side, alt-right twitter isn't too happy.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: King Francis I on September 09, 2018, 02:32:57 pm
There are some polls giving SD at 16% and others at 19%. Whicj prediction should we trust?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2018, 02:35:19 pm
The Social Democrats are doing much better than I thought.

While there are some moderate losses in the rural areas, they are doing quite well in the urban areas (like the SPÖ last year). I think they could get 26-28% in the end.

At this rate, the SD will only end up around 18-20% in the end.

There are some polls giving SD at 16% and others at 19%. Whicj prediction should we trust?

The SVT one with 19% looks ok.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 02:37:11 pm
The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 09, 2018, 02:38:53 pm
M catching up to S...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 02:39:06 pm
It seems that S and M are doing better than expected.  I assume this is due to tactical voting to stop SD from being first or second largest party.  SD itself is also not doing as well as it would hope.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: BundouYMB on September 09, 2018, 02:41:30 pm
The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 02:45:36 pm
The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

All the Allianse parties have made a point about not just letting forward another Red-Green government. As I wrote beforehand, we might end there. But based on everything they said in the campaign, the Allianse parties will try to form a government with this result.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 02:45:56 pm
The current count implies the most tiny of leads for the Center-Left bloc with SD most likely around 17.5%-18%.  


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Vosem on September 09, 2018, 02:46:23 pm
The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

...have they won? They're up nationally 40.9-39.3 at the moment, and the Greens are only at 4.3 nationally (though rising a bit). Multiple different less-than-a-point shifts could change that. Too close to call.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 09, 2018, 02:47:36 pm
The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

Also you are ignoring reporting biases. The important thing to note is the combined left is down about 3%, and the combined right is standing still/up a tiny bit as of now. Compared to 2014 this puts the parties almost tied, matching exit polls that put the alliance ahead by 1 seat.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: mvd10 on September 09, 2018, 02:48:12 pm
Sweden looks pretty in red 😁

I love the inevitable small, densely populated blue spots in Stockholm though :)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 02:48:30 pm
The count seems to be getting more favorable for S as time goes on on a relative to 2014 basis.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: BundouYMB on September 09, 2018, 02:51:01 pm
The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

...have they won? They're up nationally 40.9-39.3 at the moment, and the Greens are only at 4.3 nationally (though rising a bit). Multiple different less-than-a-point shifts could change that. Too close to call.

I was responding to the idea a 3.3% Red-Green lead is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation. That would be one of the most predictable results possible.

I wasn't saying Red-Green would definitely win.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 02:52:40 pm
It seems more and more likely that the Center-Left bloc will emerge slightly bigger than the Center-Right bloc. 


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 09, 2018, 02:53:04 pm
As of right now:

Combined right is +0.8 on 2014, Combined left -3. Projecting to 2014 results gives us a margin of 0.4% between the two blocks. Which is why the race is to close to call.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Vosem on September 09, 2018, 02:53:37 pm
The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

Also you are ignoring reporting biases. The important thing to note is the combined left is down about 3%, and the combined right is standing still/up a tiny bit as of now. Compared to 2014 this puts the parties almost tied, matching exit polls that put the alliance ahead by 1 seat.

The central question seems to be whether the Greens make it in or not. The Center Party is strong enough to make the question of whether the other Alliance parties want to cooperate with the SDs or not moot (because any combination of the left-bloc plus Center gets you to the high 40s/a majority of the Riksdag even if the Greens don't make it), so it comes down to whether the Greens get in, and the left-bloc is almost certainly stronger than the Alliance, or they don't, and then the Alliance is stronger than the left-bloc.

The current distribution of areas in seems a little more favorable to the Greens than the country to my eyes, but I'm also not really familiar enough with Sweden to say for sure.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 09, 2018, 02:53:56 pm
Wow, this is definitely not the results the SD were hoping for


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018
Post by: Vosem on September 09, 2018, 02:54:55 pm
The lack of an projection of the final result also makes it very difficult to predict the bloc result. On the counted results, the red-greens are 3.3% ahead, which is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation.

What's unpredictable about it? Red-Green won. Red-Green will be continuing. Center and Liberals already swore they wouldn't work with SD under any circumstances. That, coupled with the blue bloc's demoralizing results, makes it impossible to imagine anything besides four more years of Red-Green.

...have they won? They're up nationally 40.9-39.3 at the moment, and the Greens are only at 4.3 nationally (though rising a bit). Multiple different less-than-a-point shifts could change that. Too close to call.

I was responding to the idea a 3.3% Red-Green lead is the most unpredictable result in terms of government formation. That would be one of the most predictable results possible.

I wasn't saying Red-Green would definitely win.

3.3% Red-Green isn't necessarily super-predictable if Center/Liberals crashed or SDs did really, really well. But it seems pretty clear neither of those things have happened, so yeah, 3.3% Red-Green lead is a Lofven reelection. Even a 0.1% Red-Green lead is probably a Lofven reelection.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 03:01:28 pm
FI seems to have crashed to 0.5% which gives an extra 2.5% pool of votes to augment the Center-Left bloc tally.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Vosem on September 09, 2018, 03:04:24 pm
Greens and Alliance parties keep inching up; Greens sitting on 4.4, but Red-Green's lead over the Alliance is down to 40.8-39.7. "Alliance wins but Greens stay in the Riksdag" is looking thinkable -- it would also be what the SVT exit poll showed, so if it pans out would be pretty good for them in getting it right.

Also, wrt to FI collapse: throwback to that one precinct in Malmo that they won outright in 2014 lol


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 03:05:13 pm
For those who are convinced this result will mean a Löfven reelection, I would recommend betting right now. Kristersson is quite clear favourite to become PM most places. At Unibet he is only at 1.35 now. Again, I'm not ruling out it could end with Löfven, but it would stride against what the Allianse parties have said during the campaign


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 03:06:59 pm
For those who are convinced this result will mean a Löfven reelection, I would recommend betting right now. Kristersson is quite clear favourite to become PM most places. At Unibet he is only at 1.35 now. Again, I'm not ruling out it could end with Löfven, but it would stride against what the Allianse parties have said during the campaign

But if the Center-Left bloc emerge larger, even slightly, I do not see a path to a Center-Right government given how certain Center-Right parties feel about working with SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 09, 2018, 03:07:35 pm
Looking more like the TV4 exit poll was slightly more accurate than SVT.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Vosem on September 09, 2018, 03:08:46 pm
Greens and Alliance parties keep inching up; Greens sitting on 4.4, but Red-Green's lead over the Alliance is down to 40.8-39.7. "Alliance wins but Greens stay in the Riksdag" is looking thinkable -- it would also be what the SVT exit poll showed, so if it pans out would be pretty good for them in getting it right.

Also, wrt to FI collapse: throwback to that one precinct in Malmo that they won outright in 2014 lol

40.6 RG-40.0 Alliansen. Greens at 4.4. Narrowing pretty quickly.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: King Francis I on September 09, 2018, 03:10:25 pm
No way SD backs a minority govt?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on September 09, 2018, 03:17:15 pm
Is there any chance that the Liberals or Centre will break from the Alliance to prop up a SAP government?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: parochial boy on September 09, 2018, 03:20:00 pm
So the commune I was born in is currently at 43% for M, furking terrific boys ::)

Pretty solid result for the left block in Stockholm county as a wholethough, S ahead of M and the left block actually ahead of the right in Stockholm city - that's quite unusual

Actually, come to think about it - the left is progressing in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo - Global trends right?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: jaichind on September 09, 2018, 03:21:42 pm
It seems the vote count is pretty consistent with a Center-Left bloc lead over the Center-Right bloc lead of around 0.5%.    I guess Löfven is back in.  But that just means the next election MP might fall below 4%.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Pennsylvania Deplorable on September 09, 2018, 03:22:40 pm
The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on September 09, 2018, 03:23:20 pm
Sweden Lolocrats


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 03:24:53 pm
For those who are convinced this result will mean a Löfven reelection, I would recommend betting right now. Kristersson is quite clear favourite to become PM most places. At Unibet he is only at 1.35 now. Again, I'm not ruling out it could end with Löfven, but it would stride against what the Allianse parties have said during the campaign

But if the Center-Left bloc emerge larger, even slightly, I do not see a path to a Center-Right government given how certain Center-Right parties feel about working with SD.

All paths are difficult with this scenario. Some of it will be a war of attrition between the two blocks; how long will they keep saying no to letting the other bloc govern. And for how long will they say straight no, and when will they open for maybe letting the others govern on some conditions. I think a significant part of the bookmaker's calculation is that SD is fairly certain to vote against all centre-left governments, while it is less certain how they will react to a centre-right government (also dependent on which kind of centre-right government, both in terms of parties and policies).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 09, 2018, 03:25:51 pm
0.4% between the Blocks, 2 seats...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Beezer on September 09, 2018, 03:28:00 pm
The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on September 09, 2018, 03:30:30 pm
The Left is doing really well in Stockholm. Some of those neighborhoods are swinging more than 10 points to them.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: parochial boy on September 09, 2018, 03:32:30 pm
The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Kista/Rinkeby in Stockholm would be a good example. Rinkebysvängen N  is currently at 56% SAP and 17% V


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: mvd10 on September 09, 2018, 03:34:10 pm
Stockholm can turn blue any minute now :D


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: The Saint on September 09, 2018, 03:38:31 pm
As of right now, according to this website (https://valresultat.svt.se/2018/10000.html), Red-Green has a 2-seat lead.

Red-Green: 144
     S: 100
     V: 28
     MP: 16

Alliance: 142
     M: 69
     C: 31
     KD: 23
     L: 19

SD: 63



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Pennsylvania Deplorable on September 09, 2018, 03:39:03 pm
The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 03:43:16 pm
The general European trend of fragmentation continues, although at a slightly slower rate than expected. The two biggest parties lose a lot of votes, and both S and M lose them to both side of the value spectre. Both parties lost many voters to SD, but also to V and C respectively. It does not seem like this balancing walk will be easier to walk succesfully in the years ahead.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: afleitch on September 09, 2018, 03:43:50 pm
The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Helsinkian on September 09, 2018, 03:48:15 pm
MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left (Annie Lööf said she would be fine with 30 million immigrants coming to Sweden) but they still don't get migrant votes.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Pennsylvania Deplorable on September 09, 2018, 03:50:54 pm
MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.
The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2018, 03:51:43 pm
Not groovy guys.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: mvd10 on September 09, 2018, 03:52:04 pm
The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

Well, it's not a shocker that they vote against an anti-migrant party but I'd be interested in their turnout rate. If the Red-Green alliance wins by a narrow margin this might just have tipped it towards them. I do wonder whether the dubious S facebook posts where they accused M and other right-wing parties of wanting to take away migrant children without a reason played a role. Probably not though, I don't think that many people read them (and the ones who heard about it probably knew it was a irrelevant local politician spouting nonsense).

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left (Annie Lööf said she would be fine with 30 million immigrants coming to Sweden) but they still don't get migrant votes.

Economics, economics, economics. I mean, obviously a disproportionally poor group isn't going to vote for European centre-right liberals. Even if the GOP becomes more accepting of minorities they're still not going to get much higher than 25-30% simply because minority households have much lower incomes.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: afleitch on September 09, 2018, 03:52:27 pm
MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left (Annie Lööf said she would be fine with 30 million immigrants coming to Sweden) but they still don't get migrant votes.

Hence 'voting against'; if you can shop around you can shop around.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: afleitch on September 09, 2018, 03:53:16 pm
Part of me hopes the SD now go off the rails a little.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Omega21 on September 09, 2018, 03:54:40 pm
The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

Lol

Reply to mod > Get reply deleted

You're such a strong character. When you don't know what to say, just silence the other side, because, you know, silencing the other side is not bad if you think their thoughts are invalid.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: reciprocity on September 09, 2018, 03:56:54 pm
MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.
The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor

Does your low-information voter analysis also reach to poor voters who voted in the 2016 presidential election for someone whose businesses even now continue to hire workers from abroad because of lower labour costs?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: afleitch on September 09, 2018, 03:59:54 pm
The non-Swedish ethnic neighborhoods are voting almost 90% S+V. This was expected, but the effectiveness of the left in boosting turnout among immigrants wasn't, and that may help to explain why SD is falling short or their hopes.

Edit: This may also explain why the leftist coalition is edging out the Alliance.

Which areas are you referring to?

Take a look at one of the more well known migrant neighborhoods, Rinkeby.
Rinkeby S: S - 69.2%, V - 18.2%
Rinkeby C: S - 68.6%, V - 14%
Rinkby O: S - 76.9%, V - 11.8%
Rinkeby M: S - 68.7%, V - 14.7%
Rinkeby ST: S - 70.3%, V - 13.5%

MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

Lol

Reply to mod > Get reply deleted

You're such a strong character. When you don't know what to say, just silence the other side, because, you know, silencing the other side is not bad if you think their thoughts are invalid.

Whit?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 04:00:36 pm
Jimmie Åkesson, before the coughing sat in,:"Now it is up to you, Ulf Kristersson, do you choose Stefan Löfven or Jimmie Åkesson?"


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on September 09, 2018, 04:06:42 pm
Do we have any results for the smaller parties? All I've heard about is the FI crashing, but nothing about the AfS, PP, or NRM.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 04:10:47 pm
143-143 between the blocks in seat distribution right now!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: parochial boy on September 09, 2018, 04:11:08 pm
MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.
The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor

Maybe they're just not as obsessed with identity politics as you are?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Izzyeviel on September 09, 2018, 04:24:12 pm
MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.
The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor

Does your low-information voter analysis also reach to poor voters who voted in the 2016 presidential election for someone whose businesses even now continue to hire workers from abroad because of lower labour costs?
Trump companies do what's profitable? Oh, the horror! If you think companies undercutting Americans with foreign workers is bad, then you should logically have supported Trump's campaign promises on immigration, which, had Paul Ryan not shot them down to focus on tax cuts for his donors, would have forced corporations (including Trump's) to pay a better wage.

Anyway, back to Sweden.

Trump believes that and still hires cheap workers from abroad. If you really believed that yourself, you logically should've supported the Democrats and their plan to introduce a minimum wage which would dramatically reduce the need for companies to hire cheap foreign labour.

Anyway, back to Sweden...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 04:32:44 pm
Kristersson:"The Red-Green government should never have been formed. Now it's time for it to go". Urges Löfven to resign, and let the Speaker of Parliament start the consultation for forming a new government. As expected, he repeats points from election: The Allianse will stay together, and it is the biggest government alternative.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: reciprocity on September 09, 2018, 04:35:41 pm
MIGRANTS VOTE AGAINST ANTI-MIGRANT PARTY SHOCKER

C and L are just as pro-immigration as the left but they still don't get migrant votes.
The average voter is low-information as it is anywhere, and that's undoubtably higher in areas where many people don't even speak Swedish. They know which party gives them benefits, so that's who they vote for.

Other issues that often drive voters to the left, such as social progressivism and environmentalism almost certainly play no role in how these areas vote, or Islamic fundamentalists wouldn't be supporting pro-LGBT parties. For example, the migrant neighborhoods in Australia voted against gay marriage, but still voted for Labor

Does your low-information voter analysis also reach to poor voters who voted in the 2016 presidential election for someone whose businesses even now continue to hire workers from abroad because of lower labour costs?
Trump companies do what's profitable? Oh, the horror! If you think companies undercutting Americans with foreign workers is bad, then you should logically have supported Trump's campaign promises on immigration, which, had Paul Ryan not shot them down to focus on tax cuts for his donors, would have forced corporations (including Trump's) to pay a better wage.

Anyway, back to Sweden.

So you are saying the Trump is hypocrite? OK then. Businesses do not have to use foreign labour... they can if they want to decide who they hire. If Trump was so heartbroken, he would take the hit and hire Americans instead but he doesn't.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Beezer on September 09, 2018, 04:39:14 pm
Any exit polls/surveys which look at the vote on the basis of age, income, education...?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2018, 04:40:22 pm
I might not be the Mod here any more, but if another poster mentions Trump in this thread I will hunt them down and destroy them.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2018, 04:41:03 pm
Any exit polls/surveys which look at the vote on the basis of age, income, education...?

Most national broadcasters are way tardier on releasing that sort of info from exit polls than in Germany. In Britain, of course, they don't release it at all!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Heat on September 09, 2018, 04:42:14 pm
Shocking result here as the citizens of Sweden decide at the last minute to give a slight boost to the party which in Sweden has been traditionally associated with order and normality in the face of a surge by another party they see as radical and dangerous. Absolutely incomprehensible.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: IceAgeComing on September 09, 2018, 04:55:36 pm
Any exit polls/surveys which look at the vote on the basis of age, income, education...?

Most national broadcasters are way tardier on releasing that sort of info from exit polls than in Germany. In Britain, of course, they don't release it at all!

Isn't that because of the way that the Exit Poll is done in the UK more than anything else?  I mean I don't know what the process is in other countries but from what I can gather they don't actually collect demographic information in the UK Exit Poll.

Again I'm not a Swedish expert: my rather hot take is that its going to be one of those elections where we sit waiting for the last votes to be counted before its crystal clear.  If we're working on the old rules of Swedish politics (the block that gets the most seats forms government with the other abstaining to keep the SDs out) then who knows at this point: the last count I saw had the two blocks tied although the Alliance were moving forward so they might just get an advantage.  If the option of cross-block governments becomes a thing then the Social Democrats have a clear advantage on forming one of those: the Alliance don't have anyone they can really peel off from the Red-Greens while there is at least a non-zero percent chance of a S-MP-L-C arrangement: although I think that its probably still very unlikely.  Its a bad result for the SDs and I don't see them getting into government at all - and if they do then its going to be as a clear Junior Partner and the history of far-right parties governing as junior coalition partners in right-wing governments isn't great for the electoral prospects of the far right party, at least in the short term.  I mean it'd also hurt the Moderates - it'd seriously strain their relationship with the Liberals and Centre Party and also probably wouldn't be overly popular with their own voters; so I suppose from a long-term accelerationist type view it'd kind of not be that bad for it to happen if you want a few Left governments with big majorities!

That's probably a load of unoriginal drivel; but at least its unoriginal drivel about Sweden which is better than yet another boring discussion about a certain American politician.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Coffein00 on September 09, 2018, 04:58:43 pm
left bloc is ahead by 2 seats again
Center-Left     144
Allianse          142
S+MP+L+C    165
M+KD+SD        156


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2018, 05:01:55 pm
I think some people need to learn how to integrate into the norms of Atlas IE Board Society.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: parochial boy on September 09, 2018, 05:03:55 pm
Any exit polls/surveys which look at the vote on the basis of age, income, education...?

Most national broadcasters are way tardier on releasing that sort of info from exit polls than in Germany. In Britain, of course, they don't release it at all!

Isn't that because of the way that the Exit Poll is done in the UK more than anything else?  I mean I don't know what the process is in other countries but from what I can gather they don't actually collect demographic information in the UK Exit Poll.

Again I'm not a Swedish expert: my rather hot take is that its going to be one of those elections where we sit waiting for the last votes to be counted before its crystal clear.  If we're working on the old rules of Swedish politics (the block that gets the most seats forms government with the other abstaining to keep the SDs out) then who knows at this point: the last count I saw had the two blocks tied although the Alliance were moving forward so they might just get an advantage.  If the option of cross-block governments becomes a thing then the Social Democrats have a clear advantage on forming one of those: the Alliance don't have anyone they can really peel off from the Red-Greens while there is at least a non-zero percent chance of a S-MP-L-C arrangement: although I think that its probably still very unlikely.  Its a bad result for the SDs and I don't see them getting into government at all - and if they do then its going to be as a clear Junior Partner and the history of far-right parties governing as junior coalition partners in right-wing governments isn't great for the electoral prospects of the far right party, at least in the short term.  I mean it'd also hurt the Moderates - it'd seriously strain their relationship with the Liberals and Centre Party and also probably wouldn't be overly popular with their own voters; so I suppose from a long-term accelerationist type view it'd kind of not be that bad for it to happen if you want a few Left governments with big majorities!

That's probably a load of unoriginal drivel; but at least its unoriginal drivel about Sweden which is better than yet another boring discussion about a certain American politician.

I don't see how there is any prospect of SD being in government at all at the moment - knowing what we know about L and C. And bearing that in mind, it might tend to suggest that the route to S staying in government is ever so slightly easier

I'm tempted to say it doesn't matter though, who ultimately winds up being nominally in charge - there will be so little room to manoeuvre for any government that I dare say that the government will resemble a grand coalition in practice if not in name.

(on current numbers, S + MP + C + L have a bear marjority of one)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 05:05:55 pm
All Allianse leaders state the same message: Löfven should resign, and they will form an Allians government. It is quite central what SD does. The smartest for Åkesson is probably to state clearly that they will vote against any government that does not make an agreement with them. This will mean that either one or more of the parties decide to actually talk to him (very unlikely) or that the other parties will have to make some uncomfortable cross-block agreement that will go against much of what they said during the campaign (very likely).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 09, 2018, 05:10:26 pm
Looks like the online polls were garbage polls after all. All in all, a tolerable result for the Social Democrats. Further, the swing against M, with many voters moving towards C, indicates that hostility towards the SDs is important for many bourgeois voters. Not a bad night!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Izzyeviel on September 09, 2018, 05:18:02 pm
I might not be the Mod here any more, but if another poster mentions Trump in this thread I will hunt them down and destroy them.

Ok.

I wonder what the child president of the US thinks of his boys only getting 17.6%?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Pennsylvania Deplorable on September 09, 2018, 05:19:49 pm
All Allianse leaders state the same message: Löfven should resign, and they will form an Allians government. It is quite central what SD does. The smartest for Åkesson is probably to state clearly that they will vote against any government that does not make an agreement with them. This will mean that either one or more of the parties decide to actually talk to him (very unlikely) or that the other parties will have to make some uncomfortable cross-block agreement that will go against much of what they said during the campaign (very likely).
I agree. Reminds me of the situation in Germany last year. A coalition of S, C, and M could get a clear majority, but it would force a lot of concessions on all sides and grant SD a perfect opportunity to claim the title of "the only real opposition."


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Coffein00 on September 09, 2018, 05:19:59 pm
Center-Left   144
Allianse   143
S+MP+L+C   166
M+KD+SD   155


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 05:20:01 pm
I might not be the Mod here any more, but if another poster mentions Trump in this thread I will hunt them down and destroy them.

Ok.

I wonder what the child president of the US thinks of his boys only getting 17.6%?

Dude, you messed with the wrong Welshman.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: seb_pard on September 09, 2018, 05:28:19 pm
What is C profile? Can they work with S and MP (or even with V)? And most important, what would their voters think if they agree with the Red-green?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Coffein00 on September 09, 2018, 05:30:13 pm

Center-Left   144
Allianse   142
S+MP+L+C   165
M+KD+SD   156

needed for majority   175   
votes needed w/ V abstaining   161


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 05:31:06 pm
The final result will only be in place on Wednesday. Here there will be a count of the last early votes; those that did not make it to the right polling place for today. So this can be votes from Swedes abroad, or those voting early somewhere far from their normal polling place. This shouldn't be many votes, but it can change a few decimals, which could be decisive in such a close election. There might also be recounts in some places.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: JonHawk on September 09, 2018, 05:34:35 pm
Was hoping SD would get at least 20%... but happy theres at least a million voters in 2018 that support them in Sweden... they will only increase from here given the integration and crime problems Sweden will continue to have.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 09, 2018, 05:38:36 pm
Löfven says that he hopes the damaging bloc politics is now over; and that broad cooperation between the parties will now take place. But he adds that if the Allianse parties insist on bloc politics, it is of course logical that the biggest bloc should govern. It would be wholly illogical for the smallest bloc to govern.

So, like all Allianse leaders, a total repeat of what was said during the election campaign, and we aren't much closer to knowing what will happen.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: seb_pard on September 09, 2018, 05:39:55 pm
I think is important to note that Sweden has a long story of refugees inflows, for example, between the 70s and 80s the country received thousands of chilean (political reasons in the 70s and mainly economic in the 80s). People like Harald Edelstam (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Edelstam) saved more than a thousand people from Pinochet's regime. There is also a link about chileans in Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20170505/the-forgotten-story-of-swedens-chilean-refugees

Beautiful country, never change please.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Pennsylvania Deplorable on September 09, 2018, 05:41:54 pm
What is C profile? Can they work with S and MP (or even with V)? And most important, what would their voters think if they agree with the Red-green?
C is economically center right and very pro-immigration. It could work with S and MP, but absolutely not with V. I could see them staying out of government by quietly lending the support it needs just to spite SD though.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 05:43:21 pm
The final result will only be in place on Wednesday. Here there will be a count of the last early votes; those that did not make it to the right polling place for today. So this can be votes from Swedes abroad, or those voting early somewhere far from their normal polling place. This shouldn't be many votes, but it can change a few decimals, which could be decisive in such a close election. There might also be recounts in some places.

How do these voters tend to lean?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Vosem on September 09, 2018, 05:55:48 pm
Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Hifly on September 09, 2018, 06:21:36 pm
Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.


It's not an odd pattern - in continental Europe this is a common feature (although most common for traditional centre-left support to be positively correlated with age, and not necessarily the centre-right inversely).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on September 09, 2018, 06:35:41 pm
I think is important to note that Sweden has a long story of refugees inflows, for example, between the 70s and 80s the country received thousands of chilean (political reasons in the 70s and mainly economic in the 80s). People like Harald Edelstam (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Edelstam) saved more than a thousand people from Pinochet's regime. There is also a link about chileans in Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20170505/the-forgotten-story-of-swedens-chilean-refugees

Beautiful country, never change please.
Thanks for bringing this up — the folk singer José González is the child of two of those refugees.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Mike88 on September 09, 2018, 07:15:04 pm
So, it's still close, but here's the almost final numbers of the Swedish general election 2018:

Riksdag (Parliament):

28.4% S (-2.8 ), 101 seats (-12)
19.8% M (-3.5), 70 (-14)
17.6% SD (+4.7), 63 (+14)
  9.8% C (+2.5), 30 (+8 )
  7.9% V (+2.2), 28 (+7)
  6.4% KD (+1.8 ), 23 (+7)
  5.5% L (+0.1), 19 (n.c.)
  4.3% MP (-2.4), 15 (-10)
  0.4% FI (-2.6), 0 (n.c.)
  1.0% Others (+0.1)

40.6% Red-Green (-3.0), 144 (-15)
40.3% Alliance (+1.2), 142 (+1)

84.4% Turnout (+1.1)

Landsting (County councilis):
 
28.7% S
19.2% M
13.0% SD
  8.6% V
  8.4% C
  7.1% KD
  6.3% L
  4.1% MP
  0.6% FI
  4.0% Others

81.6% Turnout

Kommun (Municipalities):

27.6% S
20.0% M
12.8% SD
  9.7% C
  7.6% V
  6.8% L
  5.2% KD
  4.6% MP
  0.9% FI
  4.7% Others

82.0% Turnout


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: mileslunn on September 09, 2018, 07:16:06 pm
Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.


It's not an odd pattern - in continental Europe this is a common feature (although most common for traditional centre-left support to be positively correlated with age, and not necessarily the centre-right inversely).

Left being strongest amongst younger voters seems to be more a thing in the English speaking world but less so outside.  True far left parties do better amongst younger voters, but many right wing also do well also.  Even in Asia, parties on the right do better amongst younger voters so idea of young favouring left wing parties seems to be largely limited to English speaking countries excluding Ireland (Canada, US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand, UK the most extreme example of all them).

Also wasn't always that way in English speaking world.  In both Canada and the US, at least parties on the right did quite well amongst Generation X when they were in their 20s, while its more amongst millennials they've struggled so could be that usually children vote differently than their parent's generation did.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Mopolis on September 09, 2018, 07:25:10 pm
I think is important to note that Sweden has a long story of refugees inflows, for example, between the 70s and 80s the country received thousands of chilean (political reasons in the 70s and mainly economic in the 80s). People like Harald Edelstam (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Edelstam) saved more than a thousand people from Pinochet's regime. There is also a link about chileans in Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20170505/the-forgotten-story-of-swedens-chilean-refugees

Beautiful country, never change please.

That isn’t at all important to note.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: BundouYMB on September 09, 2018, 07:27:45 pm
I think is important to note that Sweden has a long story of refugees inflows, for example, between the 70s and 80s the country received thousands of chilean (political reasons in the 70s and mainly economic in the 80s). People like Harald Edelstam (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Edelstam) saved more than a thousand people from Pinochet's regime. There is also a link about chileans in Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20170505/the-forgotten-story-of-swedens-chilean-refugees

Beautiful country, never change please.

That isn’t at all important to note.

"A country's history and culture don't matter and shouldn't be preserved" - Mopolis


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Devout Centrist on September 09, 2018, 07:41:31 pm
A good result for the Social Democrats and a substantial underperformance for SD and somewhat for V. The next couple weeks will be very interesting indeed.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Mopolis on September 09, 2018, 07:47:49 pm
I think is important to note that Sweden has a long story of refugees inflows, for example, between the 70s and 80s the country received thousands of chilean (political reasons in the 70s and mainly economic in the 80s). People like Harald Edelstam (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Edelstam) saved more than a thousand people from Pinochet's regime. There is also a link about chileans in Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20170505/the-forgotten-story-of-swedens-chilean-refugees

Beautiful country, never change please.

That isn’t at all important to note.

"A country's history and culture don't matter and shouldn't be preserved" - Mopolis

I actually didn’t vote for any of the left parties in the poll.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 09, 2018, 08:17:00 pm
Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.


It's not an odd pattern - in continental Europe this is a common feature (although most common for traditional centre-left support to be positively correlated with age, and not necessarily the centre-right inversely).

Left being strongest amongst younger voters seems to be more a thing in the English speaking world but less so outside.  True far left parties do better amongst younger voters, but many right wing also do well also.  Even in Asia, parties on the right do better amongst younger voters so idea of young favouring left wing parties seems to be largely limited to English speaking countries excluding Ireland (Canada, US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand, UK the most extreme example of all them).

Also wasn't always that way in English speaking world.  In both Canada and the US, at least parties on the right did quite well amongst Generation X when they were in their 20s, while its more amongst millennials they've struggled so could be that usually children vote differently than their parent's generation did.

I don't know that I'd say it's most true in the UK. It's a relatively recent phenomenon everywhere, but there are clear elections where the pattern started (2004 Presidential election in the US, 2016 Brexit referendum in the UK), and the UK example is much more recent. US vs. UK age gaps also seem to be similar (though it is true that the age gap in the US is partially a gap in race/ethnicity among young voters as compared to older voters - I suspect that's also true to some extent in the UK but perhaps to a lesser degree).

Anyway, totally agree that more or less no real age gap, or S in particular doing best among older voters, is not very surprising. (I'd be shocked if MP did best among older voters, though!) My understanding is that, outside of the Anglophone countries, it's a combination of traditional favoring of social democratic policies by older voters combined with a view that the left are the guardians of elder-care and social safety net for the elderly policies.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: mileslunn on September 09, 2018, 08:44:53 pm
Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.


It's not an odd pattern - in continental Europe this is a common feature (although most common for traditional centre-left support to be positively correlated with age, and not necessarily the centre-right inversely).

Left being strongest amongst younger voters seems to be more a thing in the English speaking world but less so outside.  True far left parties do better amongst younger voters, but many right wing also do well also.  Even in Asia, parties on the right do better amongst younger voters so idea of young favouring left wing parties seems to be largely limited to English speaking countries excluding Ireland (Canada, US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand, UK the most extreme example of all them).

Also wasn't always that way in English speaking world.  In both Canada and the US, at least parties on the right did quite well amongst Generation X when they were in their 20s, while its more amongst millennials they've struggled so could be that usually children vote differently than their parent's generation did.

I don't know that I'd say it's most true in the UK. It's a relatively recent phenomenon everywhere, but there are clear elections where the pattern started (2004 Presidential election in the US, 2016 Brexit referendum in the UK), and the UK example is much more recent. US vs. UK age gaps also seem to be similar (though it is true that the age gap in the US is partially a gap in race/ethnicity among young voters as compared to older voters - I suspect that's also true to some extent in the UK but perhaps to a lesser degree).

Anyway, totally agree that more or less no real age gap, or S in particular doing best among older voters, is not very surprising. (I'd be shocked if MP did best among older voters, though!) My understanding is that, outside of the Anglophone countries, it's a combination of traditional favoring of social democratic policies by older voters combined with a view that the left are the guardians of elder-care and social safety net for the elderly policies.

In the case of Canada and New Zealand could also be due to progressive parties, Labour in New Zealand, Liberals in Canada having relatively youthful leaders so it would be interesting if in Sweden, the Social Democrats choose a younger more charismatic leader.  I believe the Danish Social Democrats have a younger leader so be interesting to see how it breaks down by age there.

Also part of it could be universities and colleges.  In North America at least, they are very strong left wing echo chambers whereas I am not sure if that is the case in Europe as well as also in the English speaking countries the right tends to be more ideological and you usually lack a more moderate centre-right party so its quite possible if you had multiple parties on the right instead of just one, the more moderate one would do better amongst younger voters.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Velasco on September 09, 2018, 09:02:53 pm
A good result for the Social Democrats and a substantial underperformance for SD and somewhat for V. The next couple weeks will be very interesting indeed.

I feel some relief because the result is not as bad as some predicted, but the fact is that SD performed strongly (albeit below inflated expectations) and the SAP got its worst historical result. Luckily Sweden is not lost, at least by the moment. However, populists and extremists are on the rise and represent a real threat for the whole continent.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 09, 2018, 09:30:50 pm
Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.


It's not an odd pattern - in continental Europe this is a common feature (although most common for traditional centre-left support to be positively correlated with age, and not necessarily the centre-right inversely).

Left being strongest amongst younger voters seems to be more a thing in the English speaking world but less so outside.  True far left parties do better amongst younger voters, but many right wing also do well also.  Even in Asia, parties on the right do better amongst younger voters so idea of young favouring left wing parties seems to be largely limited to English speaking countries excluding Ireland (Canada, US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand, UK the most extreme example of all them).

Also wasn't always that way in English speaking world.  In both Canada and the US, at least parties on the right did quite well amongst Generation X when they were in their 20s, while its more amongst millennials they've struggled so could be that usually children vote differently than their parent's generation did.

I don't know that I'd say it's most true in the UK. It's a relatively recent phenomenon everywhere, but there are clear elections where the pattern started (2004 Presidential election in the US, 2016 Brexit referendum in the UK), and the UK example is much more recent. US vs. UK age gaps also seem to be similar (though it is true that the age gap in the US is partially a gap in race/ethnicity among young voters as compared to older voters - I suspect that's also true to some extent in the UK but perhaps to a lesser degree).

Anyway, totally agree that more or less no real age gap, or S in particular doing best among older voters, is not very surprising. (I'd be shocked if MP did best among older voters, though!) My understanding is that, outside of the Anglophone countries, it's a combination of traditional favoring of social democratic policies by older voters combined with a view that the left are the guardians of elder-care and social safety net for the elderly policies.

The fact that there are basically no religious young people in NW Europe (and there haven't been enough to contest control of the government in many decades) seems relevant here.  That changes the meaning/platform of both the political right and left dramatically vs. in the US where there is still a substantial bloc of devout Millennials.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 09, 2018, 11:45:38 pm
Welp, that's what I call a clusterf**k


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: mvd10 on September 10, 2018, 01:20:51 am
Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.


I guess M doesn't have a socially conservative profile unlike some other European conservatives, and C and L are the kind of parties that do well with young voters anyway. And I think SAP has a stronger hold on the working-class than many other social democratic parties, which makes it much more of a working-class party, and that might make it less appealing to young middle-class voters? European social democrats usually are on the older side and the Greens (the obvious option for young lefties) were decimated. With older voters you still have some ancestral social democrats I suppose lol.

Anyway, this is going to be rather hard. Alliance government with SD support without negotiating with the SD is going to be hard. M and KD might be somewhat open to working with SD (though only SD outside support I guess) and together these 3 parties probably will vote down a left-wing government. Those 3 parties are bigger than the left-wing bloc, which means L and C would have to vote for the left-wing bloc instead of abstaining and I also can't see them doing that. Atleast that's my understanding.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Sir Mohamed on September 10, 2018, 01:32:53 am
Glad the see the right wingers underperformed. But 18% is still too much.

What are the odds for a so called "grand coalition"? Together with one of the two green parties, there is a solid majority.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: parochial boy on September 10, 2018, 03:05:22 am
Demographic breakdowns: https://www.svt.se/special/valu2018-valjargrupper/

Results by bloc by age:
65+: Red Green 42; Alliance 38; SD 19
31-64: Red Green 38; Alliance 40; SD 21
22-30: Red Green 41; Alliance 42; SD 14
18-21: Red Green 38; Alliance 45; SD 13
Total: Red Green 41; Alliance 41; SD 18

Also the Moderates won voters between ages 18-21 outright. Why does Sweden have the really odd pattern where support for bourgeois parties is correlated with youth of all things? Most every country is the opposite.


I guess M doesn't have a socially conservative profile unlike some other European conservatives, and C and L are the kind of parties that do well with young voters anyway. And I think SAP has a stronger hold on the working-class than many other social democratic parties, which makes it much more of a working-class party, and that might make it less appealing to young middle-class voters? European social democrats usually are on the older side and the Greens (the obvious option for young lefties) were decimated. With older voters you still have some ancestral social democrats I suppose lol.
The 18-21 subsample is probably so small as to be meaningless in terms of block votes. The most obvious pattern is the left-right split is pretty constant through all age groups; except C and V massively overperform with younger voters; and SAP, SD and KD overperform with older voters.

Obviously M's performance is a bit of a blow for my Big Theory, but then again, they did quite poorly in University towns like Lund or Uppsala (look at the results in a studenty area like Fjärdingen for instance) - whereas V and  C (and even SAP) did quite well.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 10, 2018, 03:15:33 am
Expressen writes that in 2014, the counting of additional votes on Wednesday meant that the Social Democrats dropped 0,2%, while the Moderates and Greens each gained 0,1%. We also still seem to be missing the results from two polling places in Stockholm


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Ethelberth on September 10, 2018, 03:33:08 am
Finally, Gotland got a Centre MP after 1991.  It has been their best constituency but due its smallness they have not got a MP. During nineties there were two socialist MPs on the farmers' island.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Gustaf on September 10, 2018, 03:54:38 am
Jesus, a lot of awful hot takes in this thread. To clear up a few things:

1. Youth vote in Sweden has no clear profile over time, it swings a lot and I Think is often anti-incumbent. A win of this size for the centre-right in the Group is still somewhat surprising to me.

2. There has been tons of misinformation and confusion not just here but also in the media at large about what is likely to happen with government formation. To be clear, the current government is not surviving. Like, that is certain and it does not matter at all whether the Red-Green ends up the bigger bloc or not. And SD will not be part of the government. There are 3 broad possibilities on the table:

A) S remains in power, drops the Greens and rules either outright together with or with support from C and L, or some combo that includes the Greens or other centre-right parties. V cannot be part of such an agreement because the centre-right wouldn't accept it. This is Löfven's preferred option. It is not something any other party wants though, especially because ruling with S has historically been brutal for a right-wing party.

B) The Alliance forms a government. This is the Alliance's preferred option. Their calculation is that when push comes to shove SD would vote for them over the Red-Greens so they can force Löfven's hand and make S support them from the outside. S of course do not want this because accepting it basically means giving up power forever.

C) A government consisting of a subset of the Alliance that can make themselves broadly palatable by dropping parties toxic to some other people. This could either be C/L to make SD more inclined to support it or M/KD to make the left parties more supportive.

I think A is very unlikely and B probably most likely. That's also what the betting markets were saying before the election.

3. Small parties get counted slower but they basically got no votes (total other was like less than 2%). SD gaining in Klippan is probaby because Klippan is a traditional Nazi stronghold.

4. I haven't had time to dive into results properly but I think the broad trend is Sweden is one where the left is losing ground in rural areas, especially to SD, while gaining in urban areas.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: jaichind on September 10, 2018, 04:22:27 am
Back to Center-Left 144 Center-Right 143 SD 62 with 2 precincts outstanding.    I guess there are some room for the Center-Right to gain enough votes in the absentee ballots to draw to a tie with Center-Left.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 10, 2018, 04:38:33 am

A) S remains in power, drops the Greens and rules either outright together with or with support from C and L, or some combo that includes the Greens or other centre-right parties. V cannot be part of such an agreement because the centre-right wouldn't accept it. This is Löfven's preferred option. It is not something any other party wants though, especially because ruling with S has historically been brutal for a right-wing party.

B) The Alliance forms a government. This is the Alliance's preferred option. Their calculation is that when push comes to shove SD would vote for them over the Red-Greens so they can force Löfven's hand and make S support them from the outside. S of course do not want this because accepting it basically means giving up power forever.

C) A government consisting of a subset of the Alliance that can make themselves broadly palatable by dropping parties toxic to some other people. This could either be C/L to make SD more inclined to support it or M/KD to make the left parties more supportive.

I think A is very unlikely and B probably most likely. That's also what the betting markets were saying before the election.

The thing counting against B is that it will require either Löfven (or the two small left wing parties) or Åkesson to make a big mistake. As you say for S it will set a precedent leading to eternal opposition, and for Åkesson, it would be a historical humiliation to let C and L sit in government after this election campaign.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 10, 2018, 06:32:43 am
The exit poll data that's been poured over doesn't look to have been adjusted to take into account the differences between the exit poll and the actual results*, so, you know, be careful my dearies.

*Mind you there are issues with doing that... often the reason for serious error would in fact be a wrong 'reading' of the electorate, poor samples etc...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: jaichind on September 10, 2018, 06:46:23 am
I am curious what the impact of SD's growth from 2014 has on the dynamics of government formation.  Meaning, in theory, if SD's vote share in 2018 stayed the same as 2014 but still with the two blocs (Red-Green and Alliance) at a virtual tie, would not the difficulties in government formation be the same as today ?

I am curious because all sorts of non-Swedish news headlines all speak have something like "Populist Right SD surge upends Swedish government formation."  But to me the real problem here is not that SD vote share grew but the two blocs in contention for power are at a near tie which would be a problem no matter what if SD held the balance of power.   In 2014 the Red-Green bloc was clearly bigger so it made sense that power followed to them.  Now the the two blocs are at near parity and there is the issue of the ruling bloc losing votes/seats from 2014 which creates an image of "government of losers" if the continued.  That seems to me the crisis and not the SD surge.  Now if SD where to go above 20% and come in second or even first then that would be a different story.

Any insight that I am missing about the dynamics of government formation ?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: DavidB. on September 10, 2018, 06:54:29 am
Well, SD's rise at the expense of both blocs has caused the collapse of traditional bloc politics (because neither can even come close to winning an outright majority anymore), with cross-bloc cooperation (or cooperation with SD...) now being necessary to uphold entire governments. In terms of bloc politics the result isn't different from 2014 - the difference is that the Alliance is no longer willing to allow the Red-Greens to govern based on the fact that they received a plurality of the vote.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Gustaf on September 10, 2018, 06:58:02 am
The tie between the blocs isn't super relevant. All the opposition parties campaigned explicitly on rejecting the sitting government. And the government lost 40-60 which is a landslide.

SD upsets government formation because they are willing to topple governments in order to gain influence.

The reason I Think my option B is the most likely is that it has the strongest math. Sure, neither S nor SD want it but what can they do? It's not like they can provide a stronger government alternative. What SD has said is that they can't accept a government where C rules the immigration policy (or something like that). I expect C won't have much influence on an Alliance immigration policy.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: DavidB. on September 10, 2018, 07:00:23 am
How did you vote, Gustaf? Center?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Ethelberth on September 10, 2018, 07:03:39 am
Junilistan? Does it exist anymore?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: mgop on September 10, 2018, 07:12:24 am
after this election quasi left is officially dead in germanic part of europe


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: jaichind on September 10, 2018, 07:49:54 am
The tie between the blocs isn't super relevant. All the opposition parties campaigned explicitly on rejecting the sitting government. And the government lost 40-60 which is a landslide.

SD upsets government formation because they are willing to topple governments in order to gain influence.

The reason I Think my option B is the most likely is that it has the strongest math. Sure, neither S nor SD want it but what can they do? It's not like they can provide a stronger government alternative. What SD has said is that they can't accept a government where C rules the immigration policy (or something like that). I expect C won't have much influence on an Alliance immigration policy.

But what you are saying that most reasonable outcomes of this election would have led to a crisis.  Because is seems no matter what the level of support SD might have the following equation would be true

ABS[Red-Green minus Alliance] < SD

Even if Red-Green beat Alliance by, say a solid 5%, we can reasonable expect even a bad election night for SD would see SD at above 5%.  The same would be true if it was the other way around.

It seems to me which bloc is bigger would make a big difference.  Either
a) Someone makes a deal with SD to abstain  OR
b) Someone makes a deal with SD for a positive vote
c) Some sort of anti-SD grand alliance

b) Seems hard and would lead to all sorts of problems.  But the "someone" that can pull off a) would be for naught if the other non-SD bloc can outvote you.

If c) is the way to go then the large bloc can make the claim that it should form the government with outside support from the losing bloc which is what seems to have taken place in 2014.

What would be funny is if the absentee vote leads to the two blocs to be at an exact tie.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: eric82oslo on September 10, 2018, 08:55:41 am
Do we have any info yet on how people voted on election day versus those who voted ahead of time?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 10, 2018, 08:55:49 am

The reason I Think my option B is the most likely is that it has the strongest math. Sure, neither S nor SD want it but what can they do? It's not like they can provide a stronger government alternative. What SD has said is that they can't accept a government where C rules the immigration policy (or something like that). I expect C won't have much influence on an Alliance immigration policy.

They can prevent it from taking office. SD's alternative is a M-KD-SD cooperation (which would have more seats than Allianse government, so would be stronger). S' alternative is a cross bloc cooperation with a majority (so also stronger). And even if they couldn't present a stronger alternative, they could certainly present one which would be more favourable to them. It would be a crazy mistake from SD to let an Allianse government take over. All other options would be better for them. Either they get a government they prefer better (M-KD or M), or a government is formed where they have no blame/responsibility. And if possible, it would be an even crazier mistake if S lets an Allianse government come to power.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: VPH on September 10, 2018, 09:42:54 am
A few questions about the results:

1. Why are the left-leaning parties so strong up north? What is the industry there?

2. What would you say the difference is between the bases of the Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Centre Party? I know the Centre Party is more rural.

3. What's up in Gottlands? They seem to have odd voting habits.

4. Why is SD so much stronger in the South of the country?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Ethelberth on September 10, 2018, 09:47:11 am
3. What's up in Gottlands? They seem to have odd voting habits.

In Gotland farmers vote Centre and fishermen SAP.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 10, 2018, 09:53:15 am
1. Why are the left-leaning parties so strong up north? What is the industry there?

Extractive-based heavy industries, including mining and so on. For instance, the Kiruna Mine - the largest iron mine in the world - is in Norrbotten.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 10, 2018, 12:41:56 pm
I think A is very unlikely and B probably most likely. That's also what the betting markets were saying before the election.

Why in the world would SAP ever agree to B? What the hell would they gain from it? If the Alliance thinks they have SD's support, let them rule with SD's support, and we'll see how well that turns out for them.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Tender Branson on September 10, 2018, 12:48:58 pm
Even though S + M didn't bleed as much support as some polls suggested they would and the Greens barely stayed above 4% and in parliament, I would still say that Red-Green was sort of "voted out" yesterday.

It would be better if there's a change of government now with the Alliance parties + some backing of the SD on some issues.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on September 10, 2018, 02:34:22 pm
Why is the Centre Party so anti-SD anyway? Are farmers in Sweden just really woke?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Aboa on September 10, 2018, 03:17:01 pm
Why is the Centre Party so anti-SD anyway? Are farmers in Sweden just really woke?
I doubt views of the modern Centre Party leadership reflects the views of average Swedish farmer all that closely.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 10, 2018, 03:22:54 pm
An election district in Västra Götaland sent in the wrong results to the Election Bureau. They send in the figures for the regional election instead of the national election. This mistake has now been corrected. This changes the seat figures as one seat goes from C to SD, so now the Red-Green lead has increased to two seats before the count of the last votes on Wednesday.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: King Francis I on September 11, 2018, 10:28:38 am
I don't understand why the right doesn't want to make a minority government backed by SD happen. SD will just continue to grow if they remain in the opposition. It would be easier to deal with them by making them back the government.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: rob in cal on September 11, 2018, 10:44:16 am
   Does the exit poll show a breakdown by income and education level?  Also, what % of the Swedish electorate is from an immigrant background?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: warandwar on September 11, 2018, 11:44:45 am
Why is the Centre Party so anti-SD anyway? Are farmers in Sweden just really woke?
I mean, historically, yes.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2018, 07:19:53 pm
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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Gustaf on September 12, 2018, 05:28:49 am
Ok, lots to respond to here:

1. Personally, I ticket split across all elections but voted Liberal nationally in the end. Was very torn though and decided on election day.

2. Again, since the Alliance won't do December deals anymore the exact balance between the blocs will not matter. The media spin is also primarily that it's tied.

3. Because of a counting mistake, C lost a seat to SD so it is now unlikely the Alliance would Catch up to the Red-Green bloc.

4. People wonder why S would accept option B I outlined. Well, it might be the only way they can exert some influence. Of course, they might win the chicken race but I have a feeling their outside options are worse. They're about to respond to it in a few minutes and I expect them to say no now. The question is what ends up happening in a few weeks.

5. M+KD+SD can't happen because it doesn't have a majority and everyone else would vote against it. It would also split both M and KD.

6. Sweden has no farmers anymore. C does have a fair number of rural voters but also a lot of urban liberals. And the sort of rural people who vote C aren't that conservative.

7. Geographical patterns are a Little complex, but Al is broadly right on Northern Sweden. Skåne has its own somewhat un-Swedish Dynamics and traditions and also a lot of immigration.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: eric82oslo on September 12, 2018, 08:33:34 am
6. Sweden has no farmers anymore. C does have a fair number of rural voters but also a lot of urban liberals. And the sort of rural people who vote C aren't that conservative.

7. Geographical patterns are a Little complex, but Al is broadly right on Northern Sweden. Skåne has its own somewhat un-Swedish Dynamics and traditions and also a lot of immigration.

You mean, you do have farmers, but they're like 1-2% of the population or something.

Skåne is culturally more similar to Denmark than Sweden I think, also historically and linguistically.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: SInNYC on September 12, 2018, 09:08:36 am
The map posted above is interesting. Basically, Stockholm and Malmo suburbs are conservative, while Malmo exurbs are far right.

I assume Stockholm suburbs are conservative for the same economic reasons suburbs everywhere are (Clinton's campaign strategy notwithstanding), but can somebody say why the Malmo area is so conservative? Do lots of immigrants come via Denmark and settle there? Also, are there many native Swedes/Danes who routinely cross the border there as part of daily life?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 12, 2018, 10:01:51 am
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Quick map of the leading block by Constituency, that I whipped up in 5 min. Arguably the more important map because S's strength as a party means that they will always be winning the majority of a first-party map. I got more local maps that I am gradually posting on my twitter below.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: DL on September 12, 2018, 10:24:28 am
Any news on the final election results? Wan't today the day that the last votes from abroad etc... were supposed to tallied and added in?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Hydera on September 12, 2018, 10:40:28 am
The map posted above is interesting. Basically, Stockholm and Malmo suburbs are conservative, while Malmo exurbs are far right.

I assume Stockholm suburbs are conservative for the same economic reasons suburbs everywhere are (Clinton's campaign strategy notwithstanding), but can somebody say why the Malmo area is so conservative? Do lots of immigrants come via Denmark and settle there? Also, are there many native Swedes/Danes who routinely cross the border there as part of daily life?


https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/category/countries/s/sweden


If you go back and check older results, Skane has always voted to the right of the country even when the left bloc was more popular in the past. Plus the immigration issue with Malmo becoming heavily settled by immigrants was what made the exurbs turn to the SD.

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Also if you look at Sweden in this map, the exurbs of Malmo have lower wealth than that of the Stockholm metro. The conservative bloc tends to do better in areas of Sweden with higher wealth.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: jaichind on September 12, 2018, 11:09:03 am
Any news on the final election results? Wan't today the day that the last votes from abroad etc... were supposed to tallied and added in?

it seems the first re-count flipped on seat from SD to C so we are back to 144-143 lead for Center-Left bloc.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: bigic on September 12, 2018, 01:24:45 pm
Counting of the overseas votes has changed the seat distribution inside the two blocs. It's still 144 Red-Green vs. 143 Alliance, but the Greens gained a seat at the expense of S, and L gained a seat at the expense of KD.
valresultat.svt.se/2018/10000.html


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2018, 01:48:58 pm
Hydera, here is a newer map:

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 12, 2018, 08:12:57 pm
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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: eric82oslo on September 12, 2018, 11:20:03 pm
The map posted above is interesting. Basically, Stockholm and Malmo suburbs are conservative, while Malmo exurbs are far right.

I assume Stockholm suburbs are conservative for the same economic reasons suburbs everywhere are (Clinton's campaign strategy notwithstanding), but can somebody say why the Malmo area is so conservative? Do lots of immigrants come via Denmark and settle there? Also, are there many native Swedes/Danes who routinely cross the border there as part of daily life?


https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/category/countries/s/sweden


If you go back and check older results, Skane has always voted to the right of the country even when the left bloc was more popular in the past. Plus the immigration issue with Malmo becoming heavily settled by immigrants was what made the exurbs turn to the SD.

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Also if you look at Sweden in this map, the exurbs of Malmo have lower wealth than that of the Stockholm metro. The conservative bloc tends to do better in areas of Sweden with higher wealth.

I already told ya, but who would care to listen to an idiot like me right?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Ethelberth on September 13, 2018, 02:40:08 am
6. Sweden has no farmers anymore. C does have a fair number of rural voters but also a lot of urban liberals. And the sort of rural people who vote C aren't that conservative.

7. Geographical patterns are a Little complex, but Al is broadly right on Northern Sweden. Skåne has its own somewhat un-Swedish Dynamics and traditions and also a lot of immigration.

You mean, you do have farmers, but they're like 1-2% of the population or something.

Skåne is culturally more similar to Denmark than Sweden I think, also historically and linguistically.

They have no  farmers in Stockholm (besides some nobility perhaps). Eastern Scania has also some non-conformist tendencies. Some of the old KD regions have turned to SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: eric82oslo on September 13, 2018, 08:05:56 am
6. Sweden has no farmers anymore. C does have a fair number of rural voters but also a lot of urban liberals. And the sort of rural people who vote C aren't that conservative.

7. Geographical patterns are a Little complex, but Al is broadly right on Northern Sweden. Skåne has its own somewhat un-Swedish Dynamics and traditions and also a lot of immigration.

You mean, you do have farmers, but they're like 1-2% of the population or something.

Skåne is culturally more similar to Denmark than Sweden I think, also historically and linguistically.

They have no  farmers in Stockholm (besides some nobility perhaps). Eastern Scania has also some non-conformist tendencies. Some of the old KD regions have turned to SD.


Yeah, on Djurgården (which literally means The Animal Farm), a famous island in the Stockholm archipelago, there's at least one farm.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on September 13, 2018, 01:00:29 pm
Did the Feminist Initiative lose all its regional and municipal seats?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Aboa on September 13, 2018, 02:14:36 pm
Did the Feminist Initiative lose all its regional and municipal seats?
No they still have 22 seats in 13 municipalities. Most importantly in Stockholm.

https://www.dagenssamhalle.se/nyhet/farre-mandat-fi-forsvinner-fran-fyra-fullmaktige-sparr-satter-stopp-23812

Would be interesting to know why they had success in some remote rural communities like Vilhelmina.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 13, 2018, 02:39:43 pm
All votes have now been counted, and the distribution is still 144 for the Red-Greens, 143 for Allianse parties and 62 for Sweden Democrats. This the preliminary result. Friday and during the weekend, there will be a recount of all votes, and then the official result will be announced. However, normally this will only change very few votes.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: DavidB. on September 13, 2018, 02:56:37 pm
Would be interesting to know why they had success in some remote rural communities like Vilhelmina.
Roma/travellers voting for Schyman?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: The Lord Marbury on September 13, 2018, 06:08:25 pm
Would be interesting to know why they had success in some remote rural communities like Vilhelmina.
Roma/travellers voting for Schyman?

Uh no, that's just plain ludicrous.

An actually believable explanation could be that Annelie Nordström, the former president of Sweden's largest trade union, Kommunal, used to be a county and municipal politician in Vilhelmina during the 90s when she was a Social Democrat. She may still hold on to a decent amount of popularity in her old home town, that she carried with her when she joined FI.

Then there's other factors, for instance if they campaigned on some big local issue. And of course in small places like Vilhelmina where a turnout of 82% only amounts to less than 4500 votes, how well known and popular the party's candidates are in the community is pretty important.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: DavidB. on September 13, 2018, 06:13:37 pm
It may well be a completely incorrect suggestion, and I immediately accept that it is, but I don't see why this idea was "plain ludicrous". Wouldn't be the first time that a marginalized community prefers a candidate from their own ethnic group in a party claiming to stand up for them.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: The Lord Marbury on September 13, 2018, 06:22:01 pm
It may well be a completely incorrect suggestion, and I immediately accept that it is, but I don't see why this idea was "plain ludicrous". Wouldn't be the first time that a marginalized community prefers a candidate from their own ethnic group in a party claiming to stand up for them.

It's ludicrous to suggest that there is a significant Roma community in Vilhelmina or pretty much any of the small municipalities in the inland of Norrland.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 13, 2018, 06:28:50 pm
Not after they were all sterilised, no...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: DavidB. on September 13, 2018, 06:29:02 pm
Fine, they don't live there, good explanation - still don't think the idea warranted the qualification "ludicrous". But if you insist on being rude I guess that says more about you.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Ethelberth on September 14, 2018, 02:57:47 am
Correct answer to Vilhelmina question seems to be Inez Abrahamson, rural feminist and journalist.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: The Lord Marbury on September 14, 2018, 05:08:51 am
Fine, they don't live there, good explanation - still don't think the idea warranted the qualification "ludicrous". But if you insist on being rude I guess that says more about you.

I guess I'm just starting to lose my patience with people from the alt-right raving about how Sweden is doomed and how the country is going to collapse, but when you actually start talking to them a bit more you realize that they pretty much know nothing at all about Sweden and get most of their information from Twitter and Breitbart.

Sorry about that.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: DavidB. on September 14, 2018, 05:56:41 am
Fine, they don't live there, good explanation - still don't think the idea warranted the qualification "ludicrous". But if you insist on being rude I guess that says more about you.

I guess I'm just starting to lose my patience with people from the alt-right raving about how Sweden is doomed and how the country is going to collapse, but when you actually start talking to them a bit more you realize that they pretty much know nothing at all about Sweden and get most of their information from Twitter and Breitbart.

Sorry about that.
Cool, but I'm not some uninformed person or an alt-righter who gets his information from Twitter and Breitbart and knows "pretty much nothing at all about Sweden." You're really barking up the wrong tree. Almost all of what I say about Sweden I would say about the Netherlands too.

Though I'll readily admit that yes, I have no idea where Roma communities in Sweden would live. But it's not as if I was "raving" or even claiming something in the first place - note the question mark in my initial comment.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Diouf on September 16, 2018, 05:47:22 am
The official results are now out, and the recount did not change anything.

Social Democrats 100
Left Party 28
Green Party 16

Red-Greens combined 144

Moderates 70
Center Party 31
Christian Democrats 22
Liberals 20

Allianse combined 143

Sweden Democrats 62

The new parliament will open on 25 September, but the day before the new Speaker will be elected. This position is quite central as the Speaker has taken over the position in government formation that would traditionally belong to the monarch. The Speaker talks to representatives of the parties and names formateurs, informateurs or PM candidates. In the first two round of voting, a MP needs more than half of the votes to be elected Speaker. If that doesn't happen, the top-two votegetters from the second round will face off in the third round, where the one with the most votes is elected Speaker.

If Stefan Löfven does not resign as PM, one of the first jobs of the new Speaker will be to arrange a confidence vote about the PM. This confidence vote must be held within two weeks of parliament opening. It is important to note that in order for a PM to lose the confidence of the house, a majority of MPs need to actively vote against the PM. So any blank vote is de facto a declaration of confidence in the PM. Based on their statements in the campaign, it currently seems unlikely that the Allianse parties will prop up Stefan Löfven for four more years. Similarly, SD will almost certainly vote against Löfven. So Löfven either resigns or is voted out, and then consultations with the Speaker starts about finding a new PM. The Speaker can then present a new PM candidate for parliament, who will face a confidence vote. Again it requires a majority of MPs to vote actively against a candidate. The Speaker is allowed four chances to present a PM-candidate for parliament. If they all fail to be accepted, there will be a new election within three months.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: parochial boy on September 16, 2018, 05:56:34 am
And AFS only got 0.3%

Is that one of the worst ratios of level of attention to actual result ever?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: DavidB. on September 16, 2018, 06:26:59 am
Wow, yes, terrible AfS result.

Ultimate turnout was 87.1%, up 1.3% from 2014. Pretty impressive.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: JonHawk on September 16, 2018, 07:41:33 am
Looks like SD was the largest party in 31 municipalities and 20% and above in 154 out of a total of 290  swedish municipalities. Pretty good.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 16, 2018, 07:57:32 am
And AFS only got 0.3%

Where can you see that? Seems Others are lumped together on both val.se and in the media.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: parochial boy on September 16, 2018, 08:19:57 am
And AFS only got 0.3%

Where can you see that? Seems Others are lumped together on both val.se and in the media.

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/slutresultat/R/rike/index.html

Scroll down to about  the middle of the page


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: EPG on September 16, 2018, 02:21:08 pm
Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: mvd10 on September 16, 2018, 03:34:23 pm
Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority

wealthy suburban white male atlasian college students strike again ayy lmao (though I guess the demographics of the IE board might be slightly different from the US board's demographics)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: adma on September 16, 2018, 04:38:55 pm
Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority

wealthy suburban white male atlasian college students strike again ayy lmao (though I guess the demographics of the IE board might be slightly different from the US board's demographics)

I prefer to call them "electoral incels".


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: bigic on September 17, 2018, 03:31:52 am
In my opinion the poor result of AfS is good because it shows that there is almost no space in Sweden for a party right of SD. SD did worse than predicted, which is also good, but they did better than in 2014. which is bad.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: EPG on September 17, 2018, 12:20:52 pm
I would say more that it was a tense election about future & leadership, where it was considered too costly to risk a protest vote for small parties like Feminist Initiative.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: Diouf on September 18, 2018, 09:43:58 am
Expressen poll of 609 Moderate councillors and local party leaders. Should the party negotiate with SD if it's necessary to gain power? 324 (53%) says yes, 285 (47%) says no. So a narrow majority is opposed to the current party line. Polling of Moderate voters tend to show an even bigger share willing to cooperate with SD.

Dagens Industri newspaper reports that the Allianse will propose Moderate MP Andreas Norlén as Speaker. The 45-year old has been a MP since 2006, and led the Constitutional Committee in the last term. Social Democrats so far state that they will try to reach a cross-bloc deal about the Speaker; a deal that would hopefully lead to a cross-bloc government negotiation as well. If the Allianse parties stay together in this question, then Norlén will very likely end up as speaker. In the last round of voting, you would expect SD to go for him over a left-wing candidate.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: DL on September 18, 2018, 11:19:31 am
Expressen poll of 609 Moderate councillors and local party leaders. Should the party negotiate with SD if it's necessary to gain power? 324 (53%) says yes, 285 (47%) says no. So a narrow majority is opposed to the current party line. Polling of Moderate voters tend to show an even bigger share willing to cooperate with SD.


So if the Moderates did in fact start to negotiate with SD, what would happen A. to all those Moderate bigwigs who are totally opposed to any cooperation with SD? B. What happens to the Alliance between the M and the Liberals and Centre parties?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: Gustaf on September 21, 2018, 04:12:52 am
These poll questions are a bit dubious (they're all qualified with "if necessary") and have notably low response rates.

There is no majority for an M+SD cooperation so that ain't happening. What could happen maybe is an M/M+KD government somewhat propped up by passive SD support or something. But we'll see.

Speaker election is step one, announcements of candidates today. Seems like Alliance will rally behind a well-respected M guy. I Think he probably wins. More interesting will be the challenge from V to SD for second deputy speaker. Traditionally that post goes to the 3rd biggest party (which is SD) so SD has it currently. But there is no formal rule and it's a secret ballot election.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: Diouf on September 21, 2018, 10:17:51 am
The Alliance has officially announced that they are proposing the aforementioned Andreas Norlén as Speaker. After the failure to find cross-bloc agreement on a Speaker, the Social Democrats have proposed MP Åsa Lindestam as Speaker. She has been a MP since 2002 and was deputy chair of the Defence Committee in the recent term. It is not yet clear whether other parties will put forward candidates, perhaps SD, but in the end it will almost certainly be a vote between the two above candidates in the last round. Sweden Democrats will likely end up supporting Norlén, but they could play it tough and demand that the Allianse votes for SD's Söder as second deputy in return.

The Allianse have stated that they won't vote in the second deputy speaker contest. The Social Democrats were a bit more fluffy, but generally stated they supported the normal principle of distributing the deputy seats after size. If they support the Left Party candidate, she will win, but if they also lay down their votes, SD will win.

Both blocs childishly continues to the support the principle of not allowing any SD MPs to become chairs or deputy chairs of committees.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: Intell on September 21, 2018, 11:09:08 pm
Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority

wealthy suburban white male atlasian college students strike again ayy lmao (though I guess the demographics of the IE board might be slightly different from the US board's demographics)

Wealthy surburban white males are more for V and SD?

Otherwise this forum has to be the least representative of its demographics then.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: EXIT POLL RELEASED
Post by: mvd10 on September 22, 2018, 04:42:47 am
Forum relative to Sweden:
M -9; C -4; KD -4; SAP -3; L -2

MP & FI same

SD +12; V +8; Other (mainly extreme right) +2

Red +5
Blue -19
Extreme right +14

Forum would have elected a SD+V Weimar majority

wealthy suburban white male atlasian college students strike again ayy lmao (though I guess the demographics of the IE board might be slightly different from the US board's demographics)

Wealthy surburban white males are more for V and SD?

Otherwise this forum has to be the least representative of its demographics then.

They're not (I'm going to assume wealthy suburbans in Sweden are disproportionally for M or L, but slightly less so this election). But as far as I know Atlas skews heavily white, male, suburban and wealthy (and LGBT I guess), yet in European polls the right-wing populists and the left always win. I guess the right-wing populists do so well because of American Republicans following Trump and just voting for the ''Trumpist'' option in European countries even though they'd normally be part of a more establishment right-wing party, especially the ones that didn't even vote for Trump in the primaries but support him now. Or maybe centre-right voters are just less idealistic and less inclined to join online political forums lol. Right-wing populists believe the globalists are out to get them, left-wing people tend to be fairly idealistic in general but idk about your average VVD/M/Venstre voter lol.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: EPG on September 22, 2018, 05:51:08 am
I would guess this forum is most missing women, people with children and families, and retired people. Those are pretty big demographics in European elections.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: parochial boy on September 22, 2018, 06:10:04 am
I think the demographic "people who talk about politics on the internet" as a whole tends to massively overrepresent the far left and far right parties - it's not just an atlas phenomenon


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on September 22, 2018, 09:05:49 am
The average Swedish voter will care about things that will be largely irrelevant to a foreign observer on atlas - concrete things like the conditions in the local hospital or whatever, rather than less tangible concepts that appear in overseas news.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: Diouf on September 22, 2018, 11:31:28 am
Sweden Democrats have announced that they will vote for Moderate Andreas Norlén as speaker on Monday. This means Norlén will have the support of a majority and be elected Speaker. With a centre-right Speaker, he will likely try to arrange the PM confidence vote as quickly as possible. Perhaps already on Tuesday. Stefan Löfven will almost certainly lose this vote, so the question is whether he will resign before the vote or want to face the vote in parliament. If he resigns, he avoids the humiliation of being voted out which could also be used as an argument by the Speaker to not give him the first chance in government negotiations. However, the Social Democrats seem very fond of the message that "The Allianse is cooperating with the evil racists in SD", so Löfven might try to double down on that message by letting the Allianse and SD vote him out.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: Gustaf on September 24, 2018, 05:17:52 am
Speaker election is happening right now. SD has said they will vote for the M-candidate while the Red-Green will vote for a Social Democrat. Speaker elections are done by secret ballot notably.

By custom, the deputy speakers are awarded based on party size but there is no formal rule. This time V is challenging SD for second deputy speaker. S has said they will vote for the V candidate. The Alliance has said they Think SD should get it but interpreted this as they will abstain.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: Gustaf on September 24, 2018, 06:07:04 am
Andreas Norrlén from M won the speaker election with all Alliance + SD voting for him. The Social Democrats got deputy speaker uncontested without vote. After lunch there will be a face-off between SD and V for second deputy speaker.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: Diouf on September 24, 2018, 10:38:25 am
The Social Democrats voted for Lotta Johnsson Fornarve from the Left Party, while most of the Alliance MPs abstained (although 20 voted for Söder), so the Left Party candidate won the role as second deputy Speaker. Jimmie Åkesson understably angry: "This is so weak, particularly from the Moderates. We allow their candidate to become Speaker, and then they allow a Communist to become deputy speaker insted of Söder. That is weak." SD proposed Söder as third deputy Speaker, but of course parliament chose the Centre Party candidate.
After this humilation, I think SD will and should take an even harder stance in government negotations. Vote against all governments, that is not based on direct negotiations with them.

As expected, Norlén has arranged the confidence vote in Löfven as quickly as possible. It will be tomorrow 09.30, where Löfven will in all likelyhood be voted out.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: Diouf on September 24, 2018, 11:33:08 am
I don't see why SD would still play along with the Alliance and vote for the no-confidence motion. If I were them, I would abstain, which should leave Löfven in place. Let the Alliance solve its own problems. They don't have a majority either, and they are not even the biggest bloc.

I don't really see how SD benefits from letting Löfven continue. There will be more left wing policies, and the Allianse could attack SD for letting it happen. If SD says they will vote no to every government that isn't based on negotiations with them, they will get one of three options, who all seem fairly good. Either a government based on negotiations with them (unlikely), another painful compromise between the two Blocs or parts of them (quite likely), or a new election (not that likely, but shouldn't probably be ruled out).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 24, 2018, 02:55:51 pm
I don't see why SD would still play along with the Alliance and vote for the no-confidence motion. If I were them, I would abstain, which should leave Löfven in place. Let the Alliance solve its own problems. They don't have a majority either, and they are not even the biggest bloc.

There is no reason for them not to vote against Löfven in the confidence vote. Kristersson won't automatically become Prime Minister (it's not a vote between two candidates)  so SD has the opportunity to vote out Löfven with-out having to approve Kristersson if the Speaker suggests him as the new Prime Minister.

Though it would be funny to see SD reward the government for actively voting against Björn Söder by allowing them to carry on until the budget vote in late November. I mean they're not the sharpest bunch but... that would be something.

   


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: tack50 on September 24, 2018, 04:47:33 pm
I don't see why SD would still play along with the Alliance and vote for the no-confidence motion. If I were them, I would abstain, which should leave Löfven in place. Let the Alliance solve its own problems. They don't have a majority either, and they are not even the biggest bloc.

There is no reason for them not to vote against Löfven in the confidence vote. Kristersson won't automatically become Prime Minister (it's not a vote between two candidates)  so SD has the opportunity to vote out Löfven with-out having to approve Kristersson if the Speaker suggests him as the new Prime Minister.

Though it would be funny to see SD reward the government for actively voting against Björn Söder by allowing them to carry on until the budget vote in late November. I mean they're not the sharpest bunch but... that would be something.    

If Löfven gets voted out, who becomes the interim prime minister? Does Löfven get to stay until there's a new government?

Also, does no budget mean a snap election is mandatory? Or is it just one of those things that are political custom but not written into law anywhere?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven will not resign
Post by: Diouf on September 25, 2018, 03:01:01 am
Löfven loses confidence vote

142 voted for him to stay as PM, 204 voted for him to leave. 3 were not present. Löfven will now continue as an interim PM.

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: DavidB. on September 25, 2018, 07:00:33 am
Moderate MP Hanif Bali voted against Löfven with his middle finger.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on September 25, 2018, 08:23:36 am
The splits in the Allianse are becoming clearer in public:

Ebba Busch Thor (KD):"We have to stop this feeling where we are so insecure about our own judgements and own policies, that we are frigthened by the sheer existence of SD in parliament. I stand for our policies and our judgements, no matter who votes for us. Therefore I'm prepared to sit in a government, even if it takes support from SD.

Jan Björklund (L): "There is no such thing as passive support from SD. Because the Allianse is smaller than the Red-Green Bloc, it would require support from SD in many votes and they are not gonna do that for free. That situation would require active negotiations and agreements with SD, and I don't want to give them that power."


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: bigic on September 25, 2018, 08:56:24 am
Isn't the Alliance's position that they are larger than the Red-Greens because Left Party didn't participate in the previous government?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on September 25, 2018, 09:22:44 am
Isn't the Alliance's position that they are larger than the Red-Greens because Left Party didn't participate in the previous government?

Well, yeah their talking point was that "The Allianse is clearly the biggest government alternative" because the Left Party was not in the government. But in terms of parliamentary arithmetics, the reality of the oneseat deficit will be obvious at each vote. So as Björklund hints, you would need active support from SD to win votes every time the Red-Green unites their vote against it. Björklund and others in the Allianse are then talking about support for S for an Allianse government to avoid this scenario, but it would of course be completely bizarre for S to participate in such a solution.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on September 25, 2018, 09:27:35 am
Speaker Andreas Norlén has announced that he will start talks on government formation on Thursday. Here he will meet representatives of all parties for 45 minutes each, in order according to the size of the parties.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on September 26, 2018, 06:55:12 am
Gustav Fridolin, co-chair of Greens, says the party would prefer a S-C-L-MP government. Such a government would have only 167 seats, so it would require some of the other parties to not vote against it in the confidence vote. But Fridolin hopes that V and/or M/KD would do that. Fridolin argues that such a government would be quite stable in terms of passing a budget, since its budget proposal could only be defeated if V, M, KD and SD all vote for the same opposition budget, which is unlikely to happen. In day-to-day politics it would then have to make deal with V or M/KD to pass legislation.

Tobias Billström, Moderate parliamentary group leader, rejects the idea of a M-KD government with support from SD. Such a government would have 154 seats. He says that even if it is allowed to govern by other parties, it would have grave difficulties getting a budget passed. I'm not as sure that the budgets will be a problem; it would require C or L voting for the same opposition budget as all Red-Green parties. However, it will probably be difficult to avoid a majority against in the confidence vote if it's clear that the government will negotiate with SD. If a M-KD government is to be accepted, it must in some way feel acceptable to both C/L and SD, which is the difficult part. Could also be difficult in day-to-day legislation.

Newspaper Expressen reports about internal problems between the Allianse parties and inside several of them. Busch Thor's comments about governing with support from SD angered C and L, but KD and some in M accuse these two parties of giving up on the Allianse to join the Red-Greens. Inside M, there is dissatisfaction with the way SD was handled. Hanif Bali and a dozen of other MPs criticized that the Allianse would not vote for Söder and give SD their deserved Committee chairmenships. Apparently the M leadership said it had been a necessary sacrifice to give to C and L. However, several MPs went against party line, and voted actively for Söder.
Inside L, there is dissatisfaction with the election result, and many believe Björklund must be replaced. He has led the party since 2007. Former Minister of Equality and Integration, Nyamko Sabuni, has been mentioned several times as a replacement.
Inside C, several voices accuse Annie Löof of running the party as a "one-woman show" with no dialogue or discussion about how the party should act. The party had a decent, but not as great as expected election, so this is probably the less serious problem. But if the party enters into government/supports a S-led government, such dissatisfactions could quickly become very important.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on September 26, 2018, 09:19:33 am
Yeah, pretty tense times at the moment. I still struggle to see L become a support party for S. It'd be virtually guaranteed electoral suicide.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 26, 2018, 01:28:50 pm
Yeah, pretty tense times at the moment. I still struggle to see L become a support party for S. It'd be virtually guaranteed electoral suicide.

So would participating in a government in need of active support from the Sweden Democrats as well though.

The real nut to crack in the government formation is that not a single government can be formed that doesn't result in a major electoral hammering for at least one party. Which party will be the one that sacrifices itself in order for us to have a government?

Maybe the Christian Democrats. They're the ones who're big on the whole "died for our sins" thing after all.   


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: EPG on September 26, 2018, 01:42:42 pm
Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 26, 2018, 02:12:43 pm
Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.

I think maybe we just skip the government part completely. Worked well enough for Belgium that one time. No government that can raise taxes, no government that can have weird IT-related scandals, no government that is dependent on either the radical left or the radical right. Sounds pretty good to me to be honest.

There is no legal time limit on how long the Speaker can wait before using his four tries to get a Prime Minister approved. Why not use the fourth and last try in the summer of 2222. :P


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: DavidB. on September 26, 2018, 02:29:44 pm
A new election might very well not lead to any "punishment" and yield the exact same result.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: EPG on September 26, 2018, 02:41:45 pm
Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.

I think maybe we just skip the government part completely. Worked well enough for Belgium that one time. No government that can raise taxes, no government that can have weird IT-related scandals, no government that is dependent on either the radical left or the radical right. Sounds pretty good to me to be honest.

There is no legal time limit on how long the Speaker can wait before using his four tries to get a Prime Minister approved. Why not use the fourth and last try in the summer of 2222. :P

It's a good argument. If the Allianse or M-KD cared enough about changing policies, they would deal with the SD. But they don't want to. So maybe there is no majority for any change in policies, and that is fine.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: bigic on September 26, 2018, 04:07:54 pm
Quote
If the Allianse or M-KD cared enough about changing policies, they would deal with the SD.
1. There is no M-KD-SD majority.
2. Policy changes that C and L want (they are necessary in such a hypothetical co-operation because of 1.)  mostly don't overlap with the policy changes that the SD want.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on September 27, 2018, 09:01:31 am
I mean, in theory a new election could produce an Alliance plurality in which case they would just form a government I Think.

First round of speaker talks are happening today. No one seems to be budging yet.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 27, 2018, 09:28:59 am
I mean, in theory a new election could produce an Alliance plurality in which case they would just form a government I Think.

First round of speaker talks are happening today. No one seems to be budging yet.

Have there been any polls indicating which way the public might be leaning if there were another election?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Sir Mohamed on September 27, 2018, 09:39:57 am
Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.

I don't know. You can't let people vote and vote over again only because the result is not pleasent.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 27, 2018, 09:43:20 am
Maybe another election would answer that question by skipping ahead to the punishment part.

I don't know. You can't let people vote and vote over again only because the result is not pleasent.

Well when Spain did it, multiple elections just proved that very few voters change their mind shortly after an election. Issues have to change before voters can bring down the hammer.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on September 27, 2018, 12:32:08 pm
Doesn't seem like much movement in the first talks. Allianse parties still state their wish to form an Allianse government, which seems very unlikely considering the blank rejection from S and part of the Allianse's opposition to leaning on and negotiating with SD. Do we really need an Allianse government to be voted down in parliament before we can get past this stage?

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: EPG on September 27, 2018, 04:47:32 pm
If anyone can solve the political situation in a clever way without a new election, your suggestions: __________ . No, telling everyone else except SD to support your favourite party doesn't count, nice as you may find a C-L minority government to be.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: tack50 on September 27, 2018, 05:10:15 pm
Considering that the difference in seats between S-V-MP and M-C-L-KD is only of 1 seat, I wonder, could 1 or 2 people from S or MP simply defect from the party and abstain?

That way an Alliance government (with abstentions from SD and the 2 defectors) would be possible. It would also be incredibly controversial but still.

If not, I guess a new election will simply mean that the left will be demoralized and the Alliance will overtake the Red-Greens and/or the Greens drop out of parliament, and so an Alliance government will happen anyways.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: DC Al Fine on September 27, 2018, 05:40:10 pm
If anyone can solve the political situation in a clever way without a new election, your suggestions: __________ . No, telling everyone else except SD to support your favourite party doesn't count, nice as you may find a C-L minority government to be.

I assume S+M+one of the small parties is out of the question?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Tintrlvr on September 27, 2018, 05:57:14 pm
If anyone can solve the political situation in a clever way without a new election, your suggestions: __________ . No, telling everyone else except SD to support your favourite party doesn't count, nice as you may find a C-L minority government to be.

I assume S+M+one of the small parties is out of the question?

My understanding is that M is the most right-wing member of the Alliance, so this is not realistic. Even KD would be more likely to work with S. (Which does raise the question of whether S+C+L+KD is possible, but also seems far-fetched to me.)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on September 28, 2018, 03:38:00 am
If anyone can solve the political situation in a clever way without a new election, your suggestions: __________ . No, telling everyone else except SD to support your favourite party doesn't count, nice as you may find a C-L minority government to be.

I think, there are perhaps 3 government options possible.
A M-KD government that in some way convinces both SD and C/L not to vote against it.
A S-C-L-MP government that convinces V not to vote against it. Perhaps with Lööf as PM and Löfven resigning to make it palatable for the centre-right parties (which of course would make it more difficult for red-green parties to accept).
A S-M government.

But not sure whether they are more likely than new elections.
For the red-green parties, neither of the two last options give them the possibility to carry out left-wing economic policies, but if the Allianse no longer wants to let the red-greens govern without a majority, then this is hard to achieve anyway. The middle option would at least allow red-green parties to get their preferred policies on environment, immigration etc. Therefore it seems the best option for them, although will they make big sacrifices to lure C/L into this? S-M government really seems a last resort before new elections. And perhaps also an option that would require personnel changes in the top in at least one of the two parties, or perhaps Kristersson not sitting in the cabinet?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on September 28, 2018, 06:41:54 am
The thing is also that an S-L-C-MP government with support from V is a nightmare for SD. I imagine they'd retreat a fair bit to prevent that from happening.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 28, 2018, 07:53:15 am
Then there is the obvious option - M+C+L+KD with outside support from left, or S+MP+V with outside support from right. These are the simplest governments but they require a whole lot of brinkmanship until one side blinks, something I am not sure either player wants right now.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 28, 2018, 08:45:49 am
The thing is also that an S-L-C-MP government with support from V is a nightmare for SD. I imagine they'd retreat a fair bit to prevent that from happening.

Not sure I understand that. I get that it would lead to continued liberal immigration policies, but wouldn't it collapse fairly quickly due to the vast ideological differences between the parties at the extreme ends while gradually creating a conservative opposition bloc made up of SD, M and KD? Splitting the Alliance into Conservatives and Liberals must be good for SD. Their long term goal is presumably a government based on an SD, M, KD majority.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on September 28, 2018, 09:21:58 am
The thing is also that an S-L-C-MP government with support from V is a nightmare for SD. I imagine they'd retreat a fair bit to prevent that from happening.

Not sure I understand that. I get that it would lead to continued liberal immigration policies, but wouldn't it collapse fairly quickly due to the vast ideological differences between the parties at the extreme ends while gradually creating a conservative opposition bloc made up of SD, M and KD? Splitting the Alliance into Conservatives and Liberals must be good for SD. Their long term goal is presumably a government based on an SD, M, KD majority.

Sure, maybe it'd be a longterm good but short term it would literally mean that that the people who switched from M to SD see that vote resulting in government with both C and MP in it. And it would mean zero influence for SD. I Think they don't want that.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: tack50 on September 28, 2018, 10:26:28 am
What about an "independent" consensus government? Kind of like Italy with Monti?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on September 28, 2018, 10:54:44 am
What about an "independent" consensus government? Kind of like Italy with Monti?

That would be extremely unlikely. Sweden has almost no history of such governments, the last time we had a government where the PM didn't belong to any party was from 1920 to 1921, before the first parliamentary election with universal suffrage for women had even been held. From the outset it was also clear that such an "independent" government would only remain in office for roughly year until the voting rights legislation for women had been implemented and a snap election would be held.

During that one year we actually had two governments led by independent, albeit right-leaning, PMs. The first PM was forced to resign after his government lost an important vote in the Riksdag, a situation which could definitely be replicated in this parliamentary term, and now there's four years until the next election and little appetite for a snap election from any side. In the end a government needs enough support in the Riksdag to at the very least pass a budget and preferably to pursue additional reforms, and I don't see how an "independent" Monti-style government would have any easier time with that than any of the other alternatives.

The only time I could actually see it possible that an independent PM takes office would be if Sweden were to end up in the midst of a crisis caused by war or a huge economic crash. But even if that were to happen I consider it far more likely that we'd just end up with a grand coalition instead.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: EPG on September 28, 2018, 12:58:22 pm
Yes, the problem in Sweden is not that people need to take a course of action but cannot agree on a government.
It's that nobody really wants to take a course of action enough to pay the price of government.
Maybe Löfven shadow government is not the worst outcome, then. For how long can this last?

If anyone can solve the political situation in a clever way without a new election, your suggestions: __________ . No, telling everyone else except SD to support your favourite party doesn't count, nice as you may find a C-L minority government to be.

I think, there are perhaps 3 government options possible.
A M-KD government that in some way convinces both SD and C/L not to vote against it.
A S-C-L-MP government that convinces V not to vote against it. Perhaps with Lööf as PM and Löfven resigning to make it palatable for the centre-right parties (which of course would make it more difficult for red-green parties to accept).
A S-M government.

But not sure whether they are more likely than new elections.

So we are coming close to the most credible outcomes being:
1. New election;
2. Prime Minister Annie Lööf


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on October 03, 2018, 03:42:31 pm
As most readers of this thread (hopefully) knows, local elections were held at the same date as the parliamentary elections to the city councils of Sweden's 290 municipalities and local government formations is on-going everywhere.   

Today it was announced that the Sweden Democrats will get their first ever mayor in Sweden in the small town of Hörby in Skåne, were SD polled 35,3% in the election to city council. Whether this will start a trend remains to be seen.



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: bigic on October 04, 2018, 01:33:18 am
Norlen's first try is Ulf Kristersson of the Moderates.
https://www.thelocal.se/20181002/swedish-parliamentary-speaker-asks-centre-right-leader-to-form-government-ulf-kristersson-moderate


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Ethelberth on October 05, 2018, 05:28:31 am

Today it was announced that the Sweden Democrats will get their first ever mayor in Sweden in the small town of Hörby in Skåne, were SD polled 35,3% in the election to city council. Whether this will start a trend remains to be seen.



What kind of places are Höör and Hörby?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: bigic on October 05, 2018, 05:45:57 am
Horby is a small town in Scania (south of Sweden) - small town and rural Scania and Blekinge (also in southern Sweden) is where the Sweden Democrats are strongest.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Ethelberth on October 05, 2018, 05:54:47 am
I know. These small towns of Scania are often somewhat  industrial or suburban-exurban. Höör-Hörby area used to be quite Centre-partyish, but not anymore. I just wanted to know whether there is some peculiarity that makes them more sensitive to SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: bigic on October 06, 2018, 06:58:12 am
Support for all parties in Sweden remained relatively stable since the election, with a minor gain for the Social Democrats and a minor loss for the Moderates.



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on October 06, 2018, 12:51:20 pm
I know. These small towns of Scania are often somewhat  industrial or suburban-exurban. Höör-Hörby area used to be quite Centre-partyish, but not anymore. I just wanted to know whether there is some peculiarity that makes them more sensitive to SD.

The reason that SD pulled their best local election results there is most likely based on local issues. As you noted Hörby used to be a Centre stronghold due to being a strongly agricultural area. The town of Hörby itself has become an exurban commuter town to Malmö, Lund and Kristianstad due to good infrastructure to the three cities and low house prices.

The Moderates had a huge success in the 2006 and 2010 local elections which went to their head and the Moderate Mayor Lars Ahlkvist had a series of scandals, most famously having the municipality pay 600 000 SEK for a portrait of himself as a Roman soldier, and he was eventually forced out by his own party members a few months before the 2014 elections. The Moderates lost more than half of their voters and has been fighting internally since.

After their defeat the Social Democrats took over with a broad coalition containing most parties except the Moderates and the Sweden Democrats. That mayor, funnily enough named Susanne Meijer, managed to become even less popular. In the last few years there has been fights in central Hörby between different groups of immigrants which she handled very poorly by first denying that it was a problem at all, and once she did admit the problem she had a town hall meeting informing the citizens about what the local administration was doing to combat it but didn't allow any critical questions from the audience. During the four-year term most other parties, like the Centre Party, left due to internal disagreements and joined the opposition.

So both the two major parties having lost the public's trust in combination with immigration related problems is probably what allowed the municipality to have exceptional results for SD, even by Skåne standards


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on October 09, 2018, 02:20:19 pm
Ulf Kristersson announced today that he gives up on the idea of an Allianse government backed by the Social Democrats, which has been obviously impossible from the start. He said he would now talk to the other Allianse parties to figure out the way forward. He ended with saying that his goal remained forming an Allianse government. This must just be an internal signal to the Allianse parties that he remains loyal to the idea of the Allianse, because it seems very hard to see how such a government should be formed. The Centre Party and Liberals will not sit in a government requiring votes from SD, and SD will not support a government with these two parties. Both the Liberals and Center seem to prefer to drag this government formation as far out as possible, perhaps as a way to make their potential cooperation with the Social Democrats go down easier ("we tried all other paths" etc.). The Liberal leader Jan Björklund even said that the Allianse should start talks with the Greens about support. This seems bizarre. Not only would that require a lot to convince the Greens, who have better options, but also because support from the Greens isn't enough to form a government, it would require an additional party.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 09, 2018, 03:09:43 pm
Ulf Kristersson announced today that he gives up on the idea of an Allianse government backed by the Social Democrats, which has been obviously impossible from the start. He said he would now talk to the other Allianse parties to figure out the way forward. He ended with saying that his goal remained forming an Allianse government. This must just be an internal signal to the Allianse parties that he remains loyal to the idea of the Allianse, because it seems very hard to see how such a government should be formed. The Centre Party and Liberals will not sit in a government requiring votes from SD, and SD will not support a government with these two parties. Both the Liberals and Center seem to prefer to drag this government formation as far out as possible, perhaps as a way to make their potential cooperation with the Social Democrats go down easier ("we tried all other paths" etc.). The Liberal leader Jan Björklund even said that the Allianse should start talks with the Greens about support. This seems bizarre. Not only would that require a lot to convince the Greens, who have better options, but also because support from the Greens isn't enough to form a government, it would require an additional party.

Another problem I see is that if C+L just back a S govt, it still lacks a majority. Such a govt would require either outside support from V - which means C+L have to bite a bullet, or M. If M is providing outside support, it begs the question of why not just reversing S and M's positions (Alliance govt-KD) won't work. Any govt that is comprised of M+C+L+S is going to be a moderate one.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on October 12, 2018, 11:03:32 am
Ulf Kristersson wrote today on his Facebook, that he has outlined two options for his Allianse colleagues, which they will discuss until Tuesday at latest.
The first option is to take an Allianse government to parliament, and see if it can survive a no-confidence vote. This will in all likelyhood be voted down. The only option would be if SD lays down it votes, which it has refused to do. And C & L has refused to govern based on support from SD. However, C & L might prefer this defeat to show that they have given the Allianse possibility all they had, so they can leave it with "a clear conscience".
The second option is what Kristersson calls the "3-2-1" model with 3, 2 or 1 Allianse parties in government. He states that such a government would follow Allianse economic reform policies fully, and cooperate closely with the remaining Allianse parties outside government. It would also seek agreements with other parties in parliament, but will keep V and SD out of influence. With the last addition, it seems unlikely that such a scenario would have a much bigger chance of SD laying down their votes for an "Allianse government in all but name". Åkesson has already commented on this proposal to Expressen:"It seems completely unreasonable that we should lay down our votes for a government that promises not to give us any influence while opening up for cooperation with S and MP. This will of course not happen." Åkesson then added a comment about the terrible decision by Kristersson and the national M leadership to allow Stockholm Moderates to form a coalition with the Greens. He fears that such a cooperation will be sought at the national level as well, which he calls "alarming"


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on October 13, 2018, 10:22:55 am
The answer to Kristersson's post came already today.
First, the Liberal leader Jan Björklund held a press conference. He stated that the party still wants Kristersson to be PM and hopes that the Speaker would prolong his mandate as informateur (ends on Tuesday), but that he rejects Kristersson's two ideas which would require SD support/laying down votes. Instead Björklund proposes 3 solutions. A huge Allianse-Socialdemocrat government, a grand coalition with S and M supported by the rest of the Allianse, and an Allianse+Greens government. When asked whether the party could sit in a S-led government, he said he didn't intend to speculate on that question.
Shortly after, Center Party leader Annie Löof also held a press conference. She stated that Åkesson's rejection of Kristersson's proposals showed that they were already doomed, but added that the Centre Party wouldn't have agreed to it anyway. She stated her preference for Kristersson as PM in a government with broad support and therefore hoped the Speaker would grant him additional time, but didn't mention potential solutions. She didn't reject the idea of sitting in a S-led government, but stated that this required that all Allianse parties joined such a government.
While the press conferences were ongoing, Left Party leader Jonas Sjöstedt tweeted:"Four Allianseparties and a Funeral. We don't need another two weeks of this drama. The Speaker should give Stefan Löfven the chance to build a new government".
Christian Democrat leader Ebba Busch Thor also held a press conference, which has just finished. She repeated a previous point that the party was so secure about its own values and policies, that it didn't care who voted for them. It will not negotitate with SD, but wouldn't mind governing on their support. She said that she could have easily imagined Kristersson leading a narrower centre-right government, and was dissappointed in C and L for rejecting this. She completely rejected the idea of joining a S-led government, and said an Socialdemocrat-Allianse government was completely out of the picture.
Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson has announced that he is sad that C and L rejected his proposals. He will now meet the Speaker tomorrow to discuss the way forward.
A Green Party spokesperson praised C and L for rejecting cooperation with SD, and said she agreed that cross-bloc cooperation is necessary. But she firmly rejected supporting a Kristersson-led government. A similar message was made by the Social Democrats
Sweden Democratleader Åkesson rejoiced that the Allianse soon seems to be a done thing. This opens up the possibility of a conservative bloc in Sweden, which would be very good.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Saint on October 13, 2018, 11:24:03 am
It seems as though a S + MP + C + L will end up being the only viable option unless the latter two decide to accept SD backing (which seems less likely than them abandoning The Alliance).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: bigic on October 13, 2018, 11:31:37 am
Left Party or the Moderates (or Christian Democrats, although it's IMO more unlikely for them to abstain than for the first two parties) would have to abstain in the confidence vote to let through such a government.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on October 13, 2018, 12:50:39 pm
Left Party or the Moderates (or Christian Democrats, although it's IMO more unlikely for them to abstain than for the first two parties) would have to abstain in the confidence vote to let through such a government.

I think the Left Party could very well do that. They haven't rejected this possibility, and with the Allianse no longer willing to be support parties for a red-green government, it is hard to see better options for the Left Party. It is difficult to see left-wing economic policies being enacted with the current parliamentary composition (unless the Left Party opens for cooperation with SD, haha), but a S-C-L-MP could at least ensure many migrants and significant measures on environment and climate. And if the result of the government's economic policies edge too close to the neoliberal dystopia propagated by C and L, the Left Party will still be independent enough to pick up a lot of S and MP voters.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 13, 2018, 01:12:16 pm
Left Party or the Moderates (or Christian Democrats, although it's IMO more unlikely for them to abstain than for the first two parties) would have to abstain in the confidence vote to let through such a government.

I think the Left Party could very well do that. They haven't rejected this possibility, and with the Allianse no longer willing to be support parties for a red-green government, it is hard to see better options for the Left Party. It is difficult to see left-wing economic policies being enacted with the current parliamentary composition (unless the Left Party opens for cooperation with SD, haha), but a S-C-L-MP could at least ensure many migrants and significant measures on environment and climate. And if the result of the government's economic policies edge too close to the neoliberal dystopia propagated by C and L, the Left Party will still be independent enough to pick up a lot of S and MP voters.

The problem with this I think is that it depends upon V, which would be a hard pill for C+L to swallow.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on October 13, 2018, 01:26:32 pm
The problem with this I think is that it depends upon V, which would be a hard pill for C+L to swallow.

This will certainly cause some issues, and opens the two parties for criticism from the conservative parties. However, a crucial difference is that in terms of budgets, the government would be able to get their budget through parliament unless V, M, SD and KD agree on an opposition budget which is unthinkable. This is the difference towards an Allianse government depending on SD, which would be dependent on SD votes to beat an opposition Red-Green budget. So for C and L, the problem will mainly be the confidence vote where they do have to rely on the Left Party; in other aspects the government would largely be able to govern without them if they prefer. The Left Party knows this, so they will probably try to set up different conditions for laying down their votes in the confidence vote because this is where their influence is. However, I think they will budge in the end. As described above, such a government still seems their best possibility and I think their current rhetoric reflects that.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on October 14, 2018, 05:36:21 am
Ulf Kristersson announced today that he has told the Speaker that he hasn't been able to find support for a government. The Speaker will have new talks with the other party leaders tomorrow and expects to appoint a new informateur. Kristersson's announcement is a rejection of the wishes from C and L, who wanted him to go on for more weeks and try to investigate a new set of impossible coalition possibilities. C and L might try to continue this farcical protraction process tomorrow by still asking for Kristersson to remain as informateur, but it is hard to see that the Speaker will not appoint Löfven as informateur.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Clarko95 on October 14, 2018, 11:40:02 am
Would anyone happen to have exit polls from September 9th that break down demographics?


Many thanks in advance :)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on October 15, 2018, 09:35:18 am
As expected, the Speaker appointed Stefan Löfven as the new informateur. For a start, he will get two weeks to investigate the potential for forming a government. The big question now is whether C and L will continue to draw out the proces or whether they are ready to engage already. Perhaps, they still think it is to soon to look accommodating towards the Social Democrats. They have made noises about S and M cooperation, the biggest responsibility at the two biggest parties etc. So it's quite possible that C and L would prefer a round of talks that focused on creating either a S-Allianse government (completely impossible) or a S-M government (probably the least likely of all the not impossible scenarios). Once such a round of talks has finished without any result, then perhaps we could start getting talks about the S-C-L-MP scenario. If Annie Löof is going hard for the PM post, that would make C even more likely to not engage seriously in this round of talks. Lööf can then hope she gets to lead the next round of negotiations after two Löfven failures. Then we have ourselves a game of chicken between Löof and Löfven. Will one of them give up the PM role (or be forced to by their party) or will we have a big crash(and new elections?)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on October 15, 2018, 02:29:13 pm
Would anyone happen to have exit polls from September 9th that break down demographics?


Many thanks in advance :)

Take note, these results reflect the SVT Exit Poll result and have not been reweighed to reflect the final result. 

GENDER:

Women:

V - 11%
S - 29%
Mp - 5%

C - 11%
L - 5%
Kd - 7%
M - 17%

Sd - 14%


Men:

V - 7%
S - 23%
Mp - 3%

C - 8%
L - 6%
Kd - 7%
M - 19%

Sd - 24%



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on October 15, 2018, 02:39:19 pm
Would anyone happen to have exit polls from September 9th that break down demographics?


Many thanks in advance :)

Take note, these results reflect the SVT Exit Poll result and have not been reweighed to reflect the final result. 

AGE:

18-21 years:

V - 12%
S - 20%
Mp - 6%

C - 12%
L - 5%
Kd - 7%
M - 21%

Sd - 13%


22-30 years:

V - 13%
S - 23%
Mp - 5%

C - 11%
L - 4%
Kd - 7%
M - 20%

Sd - 14%


31-64 years:

V - 9%
S - 25%
Mp - 4%

C - 9%
L - 6%
Kd - 7%
M - 18%

Sd - 21%


65+ years:

V - 6%
S - 33%
Mp - 3%

C - 7%
L - 6%
Kd - 10%
M - 15%

Sd - 19%


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on October 15, 2018, 02:49:05 pm
Would anyone happen to have exit polls from September 9th that break down demographics?


Many thanks in advance :)

Take note, these results reflect the SVT Exit Poll result and have not been reweighed to reflect the final result. 

OCCUPATION:

Blue-collar workers:

V - 10%
S - 31%
Mp - 3%

C - 7%
L - 3%
Kd - 6%
M - 13%

Sd - 26%


White-collar workers:

V - 9%
S - 25%
Mp - 5%

C - 10%
L - 7%
Kd - 8%
M - 20%

Sd - 14%


Small-business owners and self-employed:

V - 6%
S - 12%
Mp - 3%

C - 12%
L - 5%
Kd - 9%
M - 26%

Sd - 25%



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: JonHawk on October 15, 2018, 10:38:32 pm
Wouldn't SD lose votes if there is another snap election? soft M to SD voters might swing to Moderates to give them a better chance of forming government. SD should just let the M-Alliance government happen and pick up the pieces in the next election.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on October 16, 2018, 03:00:57 am
Wouldn't SD lose votes if there is another snap election? soft M to SD voters might swing to Moderates to give them a better chance of forming government. SD should just let the M-Alliance government happen and pick up the pieces in the next election.

Well, it's quite hard to guess how the dynamics of a snap election will shape out, and who will be blamed for causing it. Perhaps soft M to SD voters already swung back to M at the most recent election, and are now disappointed that M keeps talking SD down and ruling out cooperation. I don't think there's any certain vote loss waiting for SD, and even if there were, I'm not sure it should mean that SD should allow a government which clearly states that it despises them and won't cooperate with them. Also there's the problem that C and L do not want a government on SD votes.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: PSOL on October 29, 2018, 12:54:03 pm
Seems like the SAP gave up. Like no one is willing to collapse in the next election.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-politics/sweden-closer-to-snap-election-as-lofven-drops-bid-to-form-government-idUSKCN1N3132


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Helsinkian on October 29, 2018, 01:27:09 pm
Does Lööf get to try now?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on October 29, 2018, 04:25:47 pm
The Speaker said today that he wouldn't appoint a new informateur. Instead he would take a more active role. He will chair meetings in what he seems as the four coalition possibilities. The Grand Coalition (will start with S +MP +Alliance, but could be scaled down to fewer parties), the S-C-L-MP option, the MP-Allianse option, and an Allianse government (start with all four parties, but could end up with fewer parties). His stated goal is to close a couple of doors, so the different parties won't keep bringing up options that are completely rejected. He hopes to cut down the options to one or two different cabinets. It is perhaps slightly weird not to include the possible support parties for these cabinets, since they will be crucial for whether a government can come to exist. However, when the intent is to cut down the options, it probably makes sense not to make it too complex yet.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 02, 2018, 06:32:55 am
The speaker will inform on his next move Monday morning. This will likely be his conclusions on the meetings in the four coalition possibilities. He could rule out some of them completely and/or pick one option which looks most likely. He could then appoint an informateur/formateur to further explore that possibility. He has previously announced that there will be a vote on at least one PM candidate in the fall (i.e. before the end of November). However, the Speaker would look bad with his PM candidate voted down, so he would likely prefer some additional time before progressing to a vote.

While the S-C-V-L-MP majority still seems the most likely majority behind a new government, it sounds like there is very little movement between S and C. Therefore, there is more and more talk about the possibility of a narrow C-L-MP government, accepted by S and V. This narrow government would only have 67 seats in the 349 parliament, and won only 18.51% of the votes in the election. The closest historic references are probably Ullsten's L-only (39 seats, 11.1%) government from 1978-1979, which was allowed to govern by S and C, and Fälldin's C-L (102 seats, 28.7%) cabinet from 1981 to 1982, which was allowed to govern by M.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: PSOL on November 05, 2018, 08:56:20 am
Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson trying to get in as Prime Minister next week.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-politics/swedish-parliament-to-vote-on-center-right-pm-candidate-next-week-idUSKCN1NA0T8
Quote
Next week’s vote by lawmakers aims to end the stalemate since an election in September that left the center-left and center-right blocs evenly sized, and with the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats holding the balance of power.

Discussions on forming a government have led nowhere and there are few signs that parties are willing to compromise.

Speaker Andreas Norlen hopes to force the parties to choose sides finally by formally proposing Kristersson as prime minister to parliament on Nov. 12. However, Kristersson’s chances of winning majority support when lawmakers vote on Nov. 14 remain highly uncertain.

“Right now, there are absolutely no guarantees that Ulf Kristersson will be elected,” Norlen told a news conference in parliament.
Is there any polling on what Swedish voters will do in the events of a snap election.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 05, 2018, 11:14:53 am
L leader Jan Björklund has already said that his party will vote no to Kristersson. Lööf hasn't made a definite statement yet, but it's hard to imagine she will make a different call. She said that she doesn't want a government dependent on SD, and that Kristersson must show how he can create a government which isn't dependent on SD if she is to support it. And it seems impossible for him to find a way to do that. Lööf is also unhappy that M and KD told the Speaker not to let her be informateur. Both her and Björklund say they wanted a scenario where Lööf could investigate the chances of an Allianse-MP government, but M and KD have rejected this. Åkesson says he will wait and see the composition and policies of such a Kristersson government before deciding how to vote.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 05, 2018, 11:16:05 am
Is there any polling on what Swedish voters will do in the events of a snap election.

A recent Sifo poll. Not much change.

(
Img
)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Helsinkian on November 14, 2018, 03:52:55 am
Most recent attempt at government (M + KD, with outside SD support) was voted down as well.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: JEC4P on November 14, 2018, 12:23:18 pm
So, new elections are likely?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 14, 2018, 12:25:53 pm
Most recent attempt at government (M + KD, with outside SD support) was voted down as well.

Well that was always going to fail. Onto the next potential govt.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 14, 2018, 04:13:02 pm
With an Allianse government finally completely out of the picture, we are a bit closer to the crunch, which will be whether there can be agreement in the S-C-V-L-MP majority. However, C and L still sounds like they are trying to drag this out as far as possible. Both Lööf and Björklund still make comments like "Kristersson remains our PM candidate" and touts the possibility of an Allianse+MP government, which remains very unlikely. If the two parties insist on keeping that posssibility alive (and the Grand coalition oft touted by L), the Speaker might have to forcefully get those eliminated as well, either with a PM vote or a very specific informateur job looking at those possibilities. Hopefully, this won't be necessary, so that we can go straight to the S-C-V-L-MP majority and see whether there can be agreement on PM, government composition and policies. If that fails, then it seems hard to avoid new elections.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 15, 2018, 09:53:55 am
Annie Löof has been appointed informateur. She states she would have negotiations with "the six parties between V and SD". For me, this doesn't sound that promising in terms of creating a government. It is quite difficult to form a government without at least passive support from V or SD. It could sound like she will focus on the almost impossible solutions like Allianse+MP or Grand Coalition instead of the perhaps possible majority in S-C-V-L-MP.

However, she also said the talks would focus on "the issues", not who should be PM or who should be in government. So it could perhaps be helpful in getting some broad policy agreements between S, C, L and MP in some form. Then some or all of these parties could perhaps form a government later, where they would have to convince V to at least lay down their votes. With the statements from Lööf about V being an extreme party like SD, it doesn't really seems like Lööf is trying hard to be PM, since it would be weird if V accepted her as PM after such comments. Of course V prefers a Löfven premiership, so they might have flatly rejected Lööf as PM anyway, but this seems like ruling it out completely.



Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Omega21 on November 15, 2018, 11:52:12 am
I really know little about Swedish politics, but why is the Alliance so opposed to working with the SD?

They're supposed to be centre-right, but I guess "centre-right" really means "barely centre" when compared to countries like Austria?

I would appreciate any comments!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: ag on November 15, 2018, 07:01:56 pm
I really know little about Swedish politics, but why is the Alliance so opposed to working with the SD?

They're supposed to be centre-right, but I guess "centre-right" really means "barely centre" when compared to countries like Austria?

I would appreciate any comments!

Because politics has more than one dimension, you know.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on November 15, 2018, 08:07:12 pm
I really know little about Swedish politics, but why is the Alliance so opposed to working with the SD?

They're supposed to be centre-right, but I guess "centre-right" really means "barely centre" when compared to countries like Austria?

I would appreciate any comments!


Well first, keep in mind that the Alliance is made up of two liberal parties (Centre Party & the Liberals), one liberal conservative party (the Moderates) and one Christian Democratic Party. So it's all very complicated and there's no easy way to explain it all, but in the end it boils down to basic ideological differences.

For the past eight years they've all been opposed to working with SD mainly due to their roots in the Swedish neo-nazi movement. Not to mention their continuing problems with national and local representatives openly spouting out racism, sexism, anti-semitism and sometimes even openly showing support for neo-nazi organizations like the Nordic Resistance Movement (NMR). SD's first strong candidate to become the Mayor of a municipality comparing homosexuals to pedophiles or Mattias Karlsson, the parliamentary leader of the Sweden Democrats, saying it's now a case of "victory or death" after the past election election certainly doesn't help to clean up their image.

However since 2014 the Christian Democrats have moved further to the right and parts of the Moderates have also grown increasingly positive towards at least negotiating with SD on certain issues in parliament. Not an organised supply and confidence deal mind you, because that would still be difficult considering the significant liberal wing among Moderate members and voters which they'd fear move towards the Centre Party if they were to go in that direction. They got some evidence of that during 2017 when they made a small opening towards working with SD and subsequently dropped like a stone in opinion polls, with the Centre Party as the main beneficiary.

The Centre Party, whilst very much to the right when it comes to taxation and the labour market, perhaps the most right-wing of any party in Parliament on those issues, remains firmly opposed to SD because of the vast ideological differences, just like the Liberals. They see SD, with their praise of the politics of Victor Orban, Donald Trump and inability to choose between a dictator like Putin and a democratically elected leader like Macron as dangerous. Working with them would in their eyes in the long run lead to the slow deterioration of the liberal democracy they've both worked to develop and protect. That's why they have such difficulty with being entirely dependent on SD for major votes in parliament, let alone be in government with them. The Liberals are also by far the most pro-EU party in parliament, so in that regard they are complete polar opposites with SD who want to leave the EU.

Also, it's important to remember that the Swedish public are far more socially liberal than some other countries in Europe when it comes to social issues. Gay marriage was approved by every single party in the Alliance except the Christian Democrats back in 2009 while they were in government and former Moderate PM Fredrik Reinfeldt was even one of two Moderate MPs to vote in favour of civil unions when he was a backbencher during the 90s. So the main conflict between left and right in Sweden have historically mainly been about economics and the size of the welfare state, not social issues.

While the Christian Democrats have held (and still do!) socially conservative positions on issues like LGBTQ rights or abortion they don't advertise them, because it's seen as a losing issue in elections. Some SD representatives even mentioned the Social Democrats's attacks on SD's position on reducing the number of weeks of abortion on demand from 18 to 12 as one of the reasons why they lost support in the final weeks of this year's campaign. And supporters of C and L are pretty much the most socially liberal bunch in the Alliance, which increases their distance to SD.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Omega21 on November 15, 2018, 09:16:15 pm
I really know little about Swedish politics, but why is the Alliance so opposed to working with the SD?

They're supposed to be centre-right, but I guess "centre-right" really means "barely centre" when compared to countries like Austria?

I would appreciate any comments!


Well first, keep in mind that the Alliance is made up of two liberal parties (Centre Party & the Liberals), one liberal conservative party (the Moderates) and one Christian Democratic Party. So it's all very complicated and there's no easy way to explain it all, but in the end it boils down to basic ideological differences.

For the past eight years they've all been opposed to working with SD mainly due to their roots in the Swedish neo-nazi movement. Not to mention their continuing problems with national and local representatives openly spouting out racism, sexism, anti-semitism and sometimes even openly showing support for neo-nazi organizations like the Nordic Resistance Movement (NMR). SD's first strong candidate to become the Mayor of a municipality comparing homosexuals to pedophiles or Mattias Karlsson, the parliamentary leader of the Sweden Democrats, saying it's now a case of "victory or death" after the past election election certainly doesn't help to clean up their image.

However since 2014 the Christian Democrats have moved further to the right and parts of the Moderates have also grown increasingly positive towards at least negotiating with SD on certain issues in parliament. Not an organised supply and confidence deal mind you, because that would still be difficult considering the significant liberal wing among Moderate members and voters which they'd fear move towards the Centre Party if they were to go in that direction. They got some evidence of that during 2017 when they made a small opening towards working with SD and subsequently dropped like a stone in opinion polls, with the Centre Party as the main beneficiary.

The Centre Party, whilst very much to the right when it comes to taxation and the labour market, perhaps the most right-wing of any party in Parliament on those issues, remains firmly opposed to SD because of the vast ideological differences, just like the Liberals. They see SD, with their praise of the politics of Victor Orban, Donald Trump and inability to choose between a dictator like Putin and a democratically elected leader like Macron as dangerous. Working with them would in their eyes in the long run lead to the slow deterioration of the liberal democracy they've both worked to develop and protect. That's why they have such difficulty with being entirely dependent on SD for major votes in parliament, let alone be in government with them. The Liberals are also by far the most pro-EU party in parliament, so in that regard they are complete polar opposites with SD who want to leave the EU.

Also, it's important to remember that the Swedish public are far more socially liberal than some other countries in Europe when it comes to social issues. Gay marriage was approved by every single party in the Alliance except the Christian Democrats back in 2009 while they were in government and former Moderate PM Fredrik Reinfeldt was even one of two Moderate MPs to vote in favour of civil unions when he was a backbencher during the 90s. So the main conflict between left and right in Sweden have historically mainly been about economics and the size of the welfare state, not social issues.

While the Christian Democrats have held (and still do!) socially conservative positions on issues like LGBTQ rights or abortion they don't advertise them, because it's seen as a losing issue in elections. Some SD representatives even mentioned the Social Democrats's attacks on SD's position on reducing the number of weeks of abortion on demand from 18 to 12 as one of the reasons why they lost support in the final weeks of this year's campaign. And supporters of C and L are pretty much the most socially liberal bunch in the Alliance, which increases their distance to SD.

Wow, thank you for answering my question so well!

I assumed they had some scandals, but I didn't know to which extent. I'm not that surprised considering that they are the only "pure right wing"(not Center-right), so the loonies need to find someone to vote for (someone more mainstream). I don't know enough about Sweden, but I would probably vote SD simply for tighter controls on mass immigration, but then again I'm not sure what their exact policies are. Will be following the thread, hopefully, Sweden works some kind of government out soon.

Thanks again, I appreciate it!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on November 16, 2018, 08:32:31 am
I really know little about Swedish politics, but why is the Alliance so opposed to working with the SD?

They're supposed to be centre-right, but I guess "centre-right" really means "barely centre" when compared to countries like Austria?

I would appreciate any comments!


Well first, keep in mind that the Alliance is made up of two liberal parties (Centre Party & the Liberals), one liberal conservative party (the Moderates) and one Christian Democratic Party. So it's all very complicated and there's no easy way to explain it all, but in the end it boils down to basic ideological differences.

For the past eight years they've all been opposed to working with SD mainly due to their roots in the Swedish neo-nazi movement. Not to mention their continuing problems with national and local representatives openly spouting out racism, sexism, anti-semitism and sometimes even openly showing support for neo-nazi organizations like the Nordic Resistance Movement (NMR). SD's first strong candidate to become the Mayor of a municipality comparing homosexuals to pedophiles or Mattias Karlsson, the parliamentary leader of the Sweden Democrats, saying it's now a case of "victory or death" after the past election election certainly doesn't help to clean up their image.

However since 2014 the Christian Democrats have moved further to the right and parts of the Moderates have also grown increasingly positive towards at least negotiating with SD on certain issues in parliament. Not an organised supply and confidence deal mind you, because that would still be difficult considering the significant liberal wing among Moderate members and voters which they'd fear move towards the Centre Party if they were to go in that direction. They got some evidence of that during 2017 when they made a small opening towards working with SD and subsequently dropped like a stone in opinion polls, with the Centre Party as the main beneficiary.

The Centre Party, whilst very much to the right when it comes to taxation and the labour market, perhaps the most right-wing of any party in Parliament on those issues, remains firmly opposed to SD because of the vast ideological differences, just like the Liberals. They see SD, with their praise of the politics of Victor Orban, Donald Trump and inability to choose between a dictator like Putin and a democratically elected leader like Macron as dangerous. Working with them would in their eyes in the long run lead to the slow deterioration of the liberal democracy they've both worked to develop and protect. That's why they have such difficulty with being entirely dependent on SD for major votes in parliament, let alone be in government with them. The Liberals are also by far the most pro-EU party in parliament, so in that regard they are complete polar opposites with SD who want to leave the EU.

Also, it's important to remember that the Swedish public are far more socially liberal than some other countries in Europe when it comes to social issues. Gay marriage was approved by every single party in the Alliance except the Christian Democrats back in 2009 while they were in government and former Moderate PM Fredrik Reinfeldt was even one of two Moderate MPs to vote in favour of civil unions when he was a backbencher during the 90s. So the main conflict between left and right in Sweden have historically mainly been about economics and the size of the welfare state, not social issues.

While the Christian Democrats have held (and still do!) socially conservative positions on issues like LGBTQ rights or abortion they don't advertise them, because it's seen as a losing issue in elections. Some SD representatives even mentioned the Social Democrats's attacks on SD's position on reducing the number of weeks of abortion on demand from 18 to 12 as one of the reasons why they lost support in the final weeks of this year's campaign. And supporters of C and L are pretty much the most socially liberal bunch in the Alliance, which increases their distance to SD.

This is a good summary, but I'd also add that a lot of people on the right view SD with distrust on regular policy issues. Many libertarian-leaning people (who aren't a lot of voters but is a non-neglible faction of party members in M, C and L) view SD as basically Social Democrats with a bit of racist flavour. That isn't necessarily entirely accurate and S of course advances the opposite narrative but it's not clear that SD would be a reliable partner for the Alliance when it comes to cutting taxes, deregulating labour markets, advancing private alternatives in the welfare sector, etc.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 16, 2018, 11:31:14 am
Liberals below the threshold in new Novus poll

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: tack50 on November 16, 2018, 11:53:47 am
Come to think about it, what's the point of having both Liberals and Centre? They seem quite similar to me tbh


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on November 16, 2018, 05:37:43 pm
Come to think about it, what's the point of having both Liberals and Centre? They seem quite similar to me tbh

There have actually been attempts at various points throughout the years to merge the parties, but they've all failed due to various reasons. There was one attempt in the early 70s which was supported by Centre Party leader Thorbjörn Fälldin, but he faced significant opposition internally, as did the Liberal (or People's Party) leader at the time. According to former L-leader Lars Leijonborg there were also preliminary talks after the 2002 elections, but it all fell through during the Euro-referendum when the two parties were on opposite sides.

There's also real differences in political cultures between the two parties; the Centre Party is traditionally an agrarian party which is understandably quite fond of subsidising agriculture and rural areas while the Liberals have generally been a party of city-dwelling academics. The Centre has also pretty much always had a far larger membership than the Liberals which would mean that they'd be dominant in any merger, which wouldn't be particularly appealing to the Liberals.

But who knows, if the Alliance falls apart completely those two parties could be looking seriously at a merger at some point as a way to strengthen liberalism in parliament. Also, the Centre Party technically owns the trademark of the Alliance (for tote bags and the like), so in that there's already a possible name for a united C-L party.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 17, 2018, 05:52:27 am
The internal discussions in the Liberals seem to be intensifying. Expressen quotes one knowledgeable source in the party for saying that there is now a majority in the parliamentary group for allowing Kristersson to be PM, even if it means relying on SD votes. 9 leading L politicians from Skåne has written an open letter which encourages Björklund to state clearly that the party will not cooperate in government with S nor allow a S-led government to govern.

Sources claim that Björklund wants to secure his own future by joining a S-led government, which would give him a bigger chance of surviving (and several years as a minister). There are also continued speculations about Björklund being replaced as party leader.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on November 17, 2018, 06:19:04 am
Come to think about it, what's the point of having both Liberals and Centre? They seem quite similar to me tbh

There have actually been attempts at various points throughout the years to merge the parties, but they've all failed due to various reasons. There was one attempt in the early 70s which was supported by Centre Party leader Thorbjörn Fälldin, but he faced significant opposition internally, as did the Liberal (or People's Party) leader at the time. According to former L-leader Lars Leijonborg there were also preliminary talks after the 2002 elections, but it all fell through during the Euro-referendum when the two parties were on opposite sides.

There's also real differences in political cultures between the two parties; the Centre Party is traditionally an agrarian party which is understandably quite fond of subsidising agriculture and rural areas while the Liberals have generally been a party of city-dwelling academics. The Centre has also pretty much always had a far larger membership than the Liberals which would mean that they'd be dominant in any merger, which wouldn't be particularly appealing to the Liberals.

But who knows, if the Alliance falls apart completely those two parties could be looking seriously at a merger at some point as a way to strengthen liberalism in parliament. Also, the Centre Party technically owns the trademark of the Alliance (for tote bags and the like), so in that there's already a possible name for a united C-L party.

Wasn't the most serious attempt in the mid-90s when it actually came to a vote?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on November 17, 2018, 04:30:19 pm
Come to think about it, what's the point of having both Liberals and Centre? They seem quite similar to me tbh

There have actually been attempts at various points throughout the years to merge the parties, but they've all failed due to various reasons. There was one attempt in the early 70s which was supported by Centre Party leader Thorbjörn Fälldin, but he faced significant opposition internally, as did the Liberal (or People's Party) leader at the time. According to former L-leader Lars Leijonborg there were also preliminary talks after the 2002 elections, but it all fell through during the Euro-referendum when the two parties were on opposite sides.

There's also real differences in political cultures between the two parties; the Centre Party is traditionally an agrarian party which is understandably quite fond of subsidising agriculture and rural areas while the Liberals have generally been a party of city-dwelling academics. The Centre has also pretty much always had a far larger membership than the Liberals which would mean that they'd be dominant in any merger, which wouldn't be particularly appealing to the Liberals.

But who knows, if the Alliance falls apart completely those two parties could be looking seriously at a merger at some point as a way to strengthen liberalism in parliament. Also, the Centre Party technically owns the trademark of the Alliance (for tote bags and the like), so in that there's already a possible name for a united C-L party.

Wasn't the most serious attempt in the mid-90s when it actually came to a vote?

Not to my knowledge at least. The only real vote or debate I can think of would be one within the Centre Party during the early 70s, but that resulted in a merger being shot down by a significant margin. Wasn't the 90s just a period of generally poor relationships between the two parties, at least until Maud Olofsson and Lars Leijoborg entered the scene towards the tail end of the decade?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 18, 2018, 07:50:10 am
Swedish magazine Fokus front page

Annie Lööf, October 2013: "I would rather eat up my right shoe than become the support wheel for S"

Lunch time?

Social Democrats are doing everything to make Annie Lööf hungry

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 21, 2018, 08:34:20 am
Expressen quotes sources for saying that Annie Lööfs talks have failed and she is unlikely to ask for more time when she meets the Speaker tomorrow. She has apparently had several meetings with Stefan Löfven, but little has come of them because Lööf has pursued the Allianse+MP solution. As one of the sources say:  "The Social Democrats have two goals. One is to govern, and the second is to break the bloc politics. To allow a new bloc of the Allianse + MP to govern means that neither goal is reached. That will never happen". We will find out tomorrow whether this is true, but it sounds like Lööf, as feared, has spent most of her time chasing the impossible solutions. Hopefully this at least means that that option can be crossed out, so the parties can get one step closer to looking at the S-C-V-L-MP majority, which might actually have a chance.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 21, 2018, 05:25:26 pm
Jonas Sjöstedt sounded very "open for business" in tonight's interview with "Bara Politik". He strongly wants Löfven as PM, and seems to hope for S minority with formalized budget cooperation with (at least) C to secure budget majorities.

When asked about his demands for allowing a potential S-C-L-Mp government, he said:"To allow a government, we must have influence. We represent more than 500.000 voters, who wants to see our policies carried through. At the same time, we have been very clear that we want this process to succeed. We want Stefan Löfven as PM. There are other models than the 4-party government. We are very open to discussing the issues and find a way forward."
Asked about C not wanting to speak with his party, :"You cannot say no to everything. Then there won't be any government, and new elections instead."
Asked about the parliamentary situation for V if it allows a four party government: "Well, there are other options. A S minority government for example. But if the four parties form a common government, then they can do without our support in the budget votes because we would never vote for a M budget. "
Asked about what's next if Annie Lööf as expected gives up tomorrow,:"The mandate should go back to Stefan Löfven. The Allianse parties have now tried all their options together without any success. Now is the time for real negotiations, which would require a fair bit of time. At least two weeks."
Asked about what S could do to convince C to cooperate? Give away PM title?: "We want Stefan Löven as PM. It would be very weird if the clear winner of the election would not be PM in such a scenario. I'm not at all sure C will even be in the government. It could be a formalized budget cooperation or something like that. But political compromises will be neccessary, and we are ready for them, despite our very clear left wing policies. And there are issues where we agree with C. We agree on the right of family unification for refugees. We agree on better conditions in small towns. We agree on securing personal assistance for citizens needing special care."


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 22, 2018, 04:57:48 am
Lööf's press conference was exactly what you could fear. She has apparently not looked at any of the possible solutions at all, and has only looked at the impossible ideas. She tries to blame S and M for not allowing each other to govern, but not a single person can have been surprised by this. She seems to explain her lack of beneficial work on the mandate of the Center Party. She says her mandate was to keep the Allianse together and make cross-bloc cooperation, and she hasn't left that course. So an internal signal to the rest of the party that they have to make a new mandate for her to entertain the possibility for allowing a Löfven led government? Now the Speaker has the ball again, and must figure out what to do


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: DavidB. on November 22, 2018, 10:11:27 am
If Lööf and Löfven both fail, could the mandate return to Kristersson or is that option off the table now?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 22, 2018, 10:47:05 am
If Lööf and Löfven both fail, could the mandate return to Kristersson or is that option off the table now?

I mean nothing is completely off the table. What we are waiting on is (still) for C + L to make up their minds. Do they want to support a Kristersson M/M-KD government despite it being dependent on SD (which they have already voted down in parliament once) or are they ready to negotiate with S, MP and V about a centre-left majority in whatever shape (probably with Löfven as PM)? Or do they want neither and thereby new elections. Björklund has talked a lot about the internal mandates and committees in his party (clearly under a lot of internal pressure) and today Lööf mentioned the party's mandate as well. So if the Speaker was very blunt, he would basically order C and L to go back to their internal party structure, and discuss the three options (Kristersson, Löfven, new elections) and find out what they want. He will perhaps not say that explicitly in the public, but his next move should be one that makes that happen. Björklund has not completely rejected the option of supporting a Kristersson government (but would require clear internal mandate etc.), but Lööf has been very dismissive and in the end C has the decisive seats. And while a majority in the L parliamentary group might support the Kristersson option, it sounds like C is more united in opposition to that solution so far.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 23, 2018, 05:49:51 am
The Speaker will nominate Stefan Löfven for PM on December 3rd, and then the vote in parliament will be within 4 days. Hitherto, Löfven has been skeptical towards being put to another vote in parliament, but the Speaker said that Löfven had accepted to be put forward. Löfven's change of mind was primarily said to be based on the fact that the possible governments investigated by Lööf were now completely closed. In other words, it is Löfven or no one for Lööf now (unless she changes her mind on Kristersson), so she must start to engage seriously if she wants a government to be formed. So now C and L must make up their mind. The whisperers from L keep on saying that Björklund is eager to join a government, and that him and his allies are preparing the party to join a Löfven-government. The question is whether it will be accepted in the party's internal structures.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Tender Branson on November 23, 2018, 10:25:57 am
Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".

The other option is new elections, but this probably would result in the same situation again, just with the Sweden Democrats a few points stronger but the left/right blocks still with the same support each - just much lower.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on November 23, 2018, 10:32:33 am
I don't get Björklund at all. Joining a government with the Social Democrats seems like guaranteed electoral suicide for the party.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: DL on November 23, 2018, 11:06:15 am
I don't get Björklund at all. Joining a government with the Social Democrats seems like guaranteed electoral suicide for the party.

Why would that be? Its not exactly unheard of for small "l" liberal parties in Europe to ally themselves with social democrats in coalitions. In Denmark the small "l" liberal Radical party has a long history of participating in coalitions with the Social Democrats and in Norway the Centre party is always aligned with the Labour Party. In Germany it would not exactly be unheard of for the FDP to make a deal with the Social Democrats and in the UK no one would be shocked if the Lib Dems made a deal with Labour (maybe not with Corbyn but certainly if the party was led by a more mainstream figure). In the Netherlands the D66 typically backs PvdA led governments etc...

Maybe its about time that there was a new paradigm in Swedish politics whereby instead of the rigid Alliance vs Left blocks (complicated by the SDs) - we get something a bit more flexible and where people will vote C or L for different reasons than before. Maybe they want to get some influence within a S led coalition and there is a large enough block of voters who are socially liberal and would rather vote for a centrist party that will be a moderating influence on a S government than be a party that supports a hard-right M government that has a tacit arrangement with the neo-Nazis in the SD.

Sometimes for things to stay the same, things are going to have to change


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: DL on November 23, 2018, 11:11:19 am
Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".


That's what von Papen and Schliecher thought in Germany in 1933 and look how that turned out...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 23, 2018, 01:56:04 pm
The problem with SD as I understand it is that they are a untrustworthy negotiator. While we place them on the far right, like every other anti-migrant party, their views cross the spectrum and make either bloc really not want to work with them. The Right sees SD's economic and day to day policies as basically S-lite, but only for Swedes. This won't work at all for their tax-cutting day-to-day policies. The left meanwhile sees the anti-migrant pro-swede policies of SD as unworkable within their platform of inclusion. This also ignores the fact that multiple parties, including the deciding L and C, were elected on fiercely anti-SD platforms. There is presently no workable government that would willingly include SD, which is why that option is off the table.

In a similar fashion though, I have long felt that V is what will prevent a Left+L+C govt. Like the SD, they would probably be outside the govt, but still have key influence over policy thanks to their votes. Its hard to see why parties on the fiscal right would sell out and accept a govt that tacitly has support from former communists. The only way I could see this working is if C+L got a larger presence in govt - say the Loof PM proposal, but with V specifically demanding Lofven, this I suspect will fail.

Which might mean new elections, and begs the question will SD go up or down. At first glace it seems obvious the anti-establishment parties will increase, but then you remember voters in these 'tied govt' scenarios are semi-rational actors. Like in Spain, voters might migrate from the unwavering parties (albeit temporarily) towards their preferred govt to try and break the impasse.

I don't get Björklund at all. Joining a government with the Social Democrats seems like guaranteed electoral suicide for the party.

I think he sees the L vote tottering at 4%, and prefers entering govt with the Left and having some influence, to losing votes in a subsequent election and falling out of parliament - resulting in no influence.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Omega21 on November 23, 2018, 02:17:37 pm
Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".


That's what von Papen and Schliecher thought in Germany in 1933 and look how that turned out...

So, democracy is only good if you get the outcome you want, and if not you simply ignore the people?

Yeah, democracy fails sometimes, but it's the best thing we have, or would you like one-party rule better?

Plus, comparing the SD to the NSDAP is not really realistic, not even in the current political spectrum where "right-wing" means "ultra far right nationalistic white supremacist".


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: DL on November 23, 2018, 06:18:06 pm
The vast majority of Swedes voted for parties that completely reject working with the Sweden Democrats. So part of democracy is to respect that. If at some point over 50% of Swedes vote for the neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats then they will have earned the right to govern. In the meantime, the other parties are under no obligation to work with them.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Tender Branson on November 24, 2018, 12:50:06 am
Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".


That's what von Papen and Schliecher thought in Germany in 1933 and look how that turned out...

The vast majority of Swedes voted for parties that completely reject working with the Sweden Democrats. So part of democracy is to respect that. If at some point over 50% of Swedes vote for the neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats then they will have earned the right to govern. In the meantime, the other parties are under no obligation to work with them.

The SD have not much to do with the Nazis and 2018 is not 1933.

There are some far-right parties that are in government (or were), also in Scandinavia, such as FrP, True Finns, DPP, FPÖ, Lega, Bolsonaro and the Trump-GOP - who all show that it's possible to govern with them (even if you do not agree with their policies).

If far-right parties are constantly ignored, their supporters will only become more and more disappointed in the democratic system and more agitated and radical and eventually will throw out the elitist system of mainstream parties in a wave election (as seen in 2016 and this year in Brazil).

Taking into account those voters and embed them in the democratic system will signal to them that they are taken seriously and that they are not seen as 2nd class voters by the elitist, detached mainstream parties and voters who think they are the best and nobody else.

Besides, polls have shown that voters (not the party leadership !) of the Swedish Moderates, KD and Liberals are slightly in favour of starting coalition talks with the Sweden Democrats, so your point is wrong.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 24, 2018, 08:19:03 am
Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".


That's what von Papen and Schliecher thought in Germany in 1933 and look how that turned out...

The vast majority of Swedes voted for parties that completely reject working with the Sweden Democrats. So part of democracy is to respect that. If at some point over 50% of Swedes vote for the neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats then they will have earned the right to govern. In the meantime, the other parties are under no obligation to work with them.

The SD have not much to do with the Nazis and 2018 is not 1933.

There are some far-right parties that are in government (or were), also in Scandinavia, such as FrP, True Finns, DPP, FPÖ, Lega, Bolsonaro and the Trump-GOP - who all show that it's possible to govern with them (even if you do not agree with their policies).

If far-right parties are constantly ignored, their supporters will only become more and more disappointed in the democratic system and more agitated and radical and eventually will throw out the elitist system of mainstream parties in a wave election (as seen in 2016 and this year in Brazil).

Taking into account those voters and embed them in the democratic system will signal to them that they are taken seriously and that they are not seen as 2nd class voters by the elitist, detached mainstream parties and voters who think they are the best and nobody else.

Besides, polls have shown that voters (not the party leadership !) of the Swedish Moderates, KD and Liberals are slightly in favour of starting coalition talks with the Sweden Democrats, so your point is wrong.

I agree with most of your points but your conclusion is wrong, at least right now. As I said above, both the Left and the Right see the Sweden Dems as having too much of the other side to be a loyal partner. They are not really a radical right party, more a anti-immigrant left party. Two, the liberals won't join a SD govt, that's a recipe for party collapse. So the M+KD+SD lacks a majority. The third thing as you pointed out is small majorities support negotiation. Thats not a recipe for success. That's a recipe for losing the half that opposes SD to C - it already kinda happened when M tried to tack right and say they were open to SD supporting govt.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Coffein00 on November 28, 2018, 02:09:47 pm
Centre Party open to Löfven returning as Swedish PM:

http://www.thelocal.se/20181127/centre-party-open-to-lofven-returning-as-swedish-pm

But some of the demands, which are not very detailed represented in that English article seem unacceptable for S and apparently its an non-negotiable offer, take it or leave it.

We will see, there are still some days left, but this could be an "alibi"-offer, so that C doesn't get the blame if there are new elections.

edit: Liberals would tolerate Löfven, too, and have also a list of demands:
https://www.thelocal.se/20181128/liberals-offer-conditional-support-for-lfven-as-swedish-pm

Left-party says they would withdraw their support if the demands of C and L would be fulfilled:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/sweden-s-lofven-torn-between-left-and-right-in-bid-to-form-government-10977944


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 29, 2018, 02:11:42 pm
Yeah, both C and L have now made wishlistes with every rightwing economic proposal they could dream up. There was very little mention of immigration wishes (where the centre-left parties are closer), so the two parties chose the issues where the difference between them and the left wing parties are the biggest. The question now is whether this is just Part 16 of C and L's attempt to drag out the process before eventually accepting a S-led government, or whether it's a pretense to make it look like they tried to negotiate. If it is the former, which I would tend to think, negotiations should take some time. There will be a lot of watering down of the proposals if S is to accept them. V is of course very critical of C and L's demands. It seems that L, due to the internal opposition, are only considering laying down their votes in the PM vote, not join the government. So if we get a Löfven-government, it is probably only S and MP that will actually vote for it while V, C and L all lay down their votes.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 29, 2018, 02:23:29 pm
If the demands are met, V considers the govt too right wing. If the demands aren't met, L+C leaves. I don't see how this isn't designed to fail.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on November 29, 2018, 03:13:02 pm
If the demands are met, V considers the govt too right wing. If the demands aren't met, L+C leaves. I don't see how this isn't designed to fail.

Sure, it's a very real possibility and could easily happen because they are so far apart. However, the fact that the parties only need to lay down their votes probably makes it easier. Also C and L have moved very slowly in this process, but the direction has been clear. V could say that a S-minority government is in the end the least poor option, and that they will with a heavy heart lay down their votes (to ensure no power for SD), but they will fight all the right-wing economic proposals every way. C and L could lay down their votes if they get some concessions, and argue that they have succesfully managed to keep the two extreme parties out of influence and has managed to get a government based on the centre of politics.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 08, 2018, 05:00:31 am
Swedish Radio report that L have called a meeting for its party council, the decisive party organ, on Tuesday. It is expected that the party council will then have to make a decision on a proposed deal with the Social Democrats in terms of government formation and the 2019 budget.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 10, 2018, 03:13:37 am
Annie Lööf will hold a press conference at 10.00, and is expected to announce C's position on the formation of a Löfven government. The party committee and parliamentary group met yesterday to discuss the situation.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: JEC4P on December 10, 2018, 04:37:52 am
Lööf says C’s will be voting no on a Löfven government, ending the possibility of an S government backed by V, C, and L (and really the possibility of any S government at all).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 10, 2018, 05:49:50 am
So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Omega21 on December 10, 2018, 09:58:16 am
So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on December 10, 2018, 01:46:16 pm
So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?

The simple answer is that no one really knows, Sweden hasn't had a snap election since 1958 so this is completely uncharted territory in the modern political climate. I guess the campaign could force some parties to further clarify their positions in case they don't get the desired result which could make the government formation process easier, but again no one really knows what would happen.

Speaking of a snap election, here's the current situation in the polls according SCB. The unpublished test poll they conducted before the election was the closest to the actual result, both compared to the exit poll and the other polling companies. This poll was released just under a week ago:
Social Democrats: 30.5% (+2.2)
Moderate: 19.2% (-0.6)
Sweden Democrats: 18.3% (+0.8 )
Centre: 8.6% (no change)
Left: 8.4% (+0.4)
Christian Democrats: 5.4% (-0.9)
Liberals: 4.3% (-1.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-0.4)

So no big changes really, aside from the gap between the Red-Greens and the Alliance increasing from 1 to 20 seats. Things would still be just as deadlocked as they are today if that were the result, though of course things would change during the course of a campaign. Right now it seems like a lot of people are blaming the Centre Party, but they also happen to be the richest political party in Europe and thus maybe the best prepared for a snap election, so who knows what would happen.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Omega21 on December 10, 2018, 02:27:33 pm
So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?

The simple answer is that no one really knows, Sweden hasn't had a snap election since 1958 so this is completely uncharted territory in the modern political climate. I guess the campaign could force some parties to further clarify their positions in case they don't get the desired result which could make the government formation process easier, but again no one really knows what would happen.

Speaking of a snap election, here's the current situation in the polls according SCB. The unpublished test poll they conducted before the election was the closest to the actual result, both compared to the exit poll and the other polling companies. This poll was released just under a week ago:
Social Democrats: 30.5% (+2.2)
Moderate: 19.2% (-0.6)
Sweden Democrats: 18.3% (+0.8 )
Centre: 8.6% (no change)
Left: 8.4% (+0.4)
Christian Democrats: 5.4% (-0.9)
Liberals: 4.3% (-1.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-0.4)

So no big changes really, aside from the gap between the Red-Greens and the Alliance increasing from 1 to 20 seats. Things would still be just as deadlocked as they are today if that were the result, though of course things would change during the course of a campaign. Right now it seems like a lot of people are blaming the Centre Party, but they also happen to be the richest political party in Europe and thus maybe the best prepared for a snap election, so who knows what would happen.

Thank you very much for the reply!

I started reading up on Swedish politics a bit and it's definitely interesting.

As for SD, what is your opinion on what kind of government they are most likely to support, if any?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on December 10, 2018, 02:51:52 pm
So back to square one. And Lööf back to making the unicorn suggestions: "S could let forward an Allianse or Allianse+MP government". It is hard to see what could prevent new elections now. C would need to make a 180 degree turn in relation to either Kristersson or Löfven. I don't know what more the Speaker can do. The Grand coalition also seemed to have been ruled out many times. If this is the situation, we might as well take another election as soon as possible. Go through the remaining three votes in parliament and then to the polls again.

So what happens if another election is held and SD gains a bit more, and the other parties stay at the same number of seats or lose a seat or two?

How are things like this usually handled after a reelection, are the other parties (other than SD) more likely to make some sort of deal then?

The simple answer is that no one really knows, Sweden hasn't had a snap election since 1958 so this is completely uncharted territory in the modern political climate. I guess the campaign could force some parties to further clarify their positions in case they don't get the desired result which could make the government formation process easier, but again no one really knows what would happen.

Speaking of a snap election, here's the current situation in the polls according SCB. The unpublished test poll they conducted before the election was the closest to the actual result, both compared to the exit poll and the other polling companies. This poll was released just under a week ago:
Social Democrats: 30.5% (+2.2)
Moderate: 19.2% (-0.6)
Sweden Democrats: 18.3% (+0.8 )
Centre: 8.6% (no change)
Left: 8.4% (+0.4)
Christian Democrats: 5.4% (-0.9)
Liberals: 4.3% (-1.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-0.4)

So no big changes really, aside from the gap between the Red-Greens and the Alliance increasing from 1 to 20 seats. Things would still be just as deadlocked as they are today if that were the result, though of course things would change during the course of a campaign. Right now it seems like a lot of people are blaming the Centre Party, but they also happen to be the richest political party in Europe and thus maybe the best prepared for a snap election, so who knows what would happen.

Thank you very much for the reply!

I started reading up on Swedish politics a bit and it's definitely interesting.

As for SD, what is your opinion on what kind of government they are most likely to support, if any?

SD and Jimmie Åkesson have said numerous time that they want to form a "conservative bloc" with the Moderates and the Christian Democrats and they voted in favour of an M-KD government just a few weeks ago. I don't think they'd participate in such a government even if asked (which they won't be) as they enjoy their outsider role quite a bit, but they'd be happy to support it in parliament. Right now it seems like their overarching strategy is to do everything possible to create further divides between M and KD on the one hand and C and L on the other, in order to create the conservative bloc they desire.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: DL on December 10, 2018, 05:31:49 pm
This poll was released just under a week ago:
Social Democrats: 30.5% (+2.2)
Moderate: 19.2% (-0.6)
Sweden Democrats: 18.3% (+0.8 )
Centre: 8.6% (no change)
Left: 8.4% (+0.4)
Christian Democrats: 5.4% (-0.9)
Liberals: 4.3% (-1.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-0.4)


What if the Liberals and the Greens (and maybe even the Christian Democrats) fall under the 4% threshold?!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 11, 2018, 01:17:13 pm
There will be a vote on Löfven as PM on Friday. Tomorrow, he will announce which parties he intends to form a government with. With Lööf's message yesterday, Löfven should get a majority of the parliament voting against him. And then there will be two tries left before a new election is automatically called.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on December 11, 2018, 04:40:10 pm
There will be a vote on Löfven as PM on Friday. Tomorrow, he will announce which parties he intends to form a government with. With Lööf's message yesterday, Löfven should get a majority of the parliament voting against him. And then there will be two tries left before a new election is automatically called.
S, V, MP maybe L voting in favor, the rest voting against I'm guessing?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 12, 2018, 03:28:39 am
There will be a vote on Löfven as PM on Friday. Tomorrow, he will announce which parties he intends to form a government with. With Lööf's message yesterday, Löfven should get a majority of the parliament voting against him. And then there will be two tries left before a new election is automatically called.
S, V, MP maybe L voting in favor, the rest voting against I'm guessing?

L is also voting against Löfven. He announced he would like to form a government with MP. So I guess S, V and MP voting for, all others against.

Today is the budget debate. Since no agreement was reached on a centre-left government, the M-KD budget for 2019 will very likely end up being approved


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 12, 2018, 12:27:06 pm
The M-KD budget was approved as expected. Vote on Löfven on Friday, while he himself is at the EU council.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Ex-Assemblyman Steelers on December 12, 2018, 10:51:41 pm
Still without majority?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 14, 2018, 04:12:56 am
Löfven as expected voted down as PM candidate. Only 116 MPs voted for him (S+MP), 28 didn't vote (V) and 200 voted against (M, SD, C, KD, L). V didn't vote because they didn't feel like they had received assurances of enough influence. However, in the PM vote a blank vote is de facto a yes vote, so the difference does not matter a whole lot.

The Speaker said afterwards that he will talk to party leaders today and over the weekend, and then report on his next steps in the beginning of next week. He also stated that "The parties are driving Sweden closer to a new election. I regret that development and will do what I can to prevent it, but if the parties choose a new election instead of acting in a way that could provide a government, I will not block their way. Therefore I will now start early preparations for a new election". These preperations are apparently a first meeting with the election authorities, who organizes elections.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on December 14, 2018, 07:11:26 am
I still Think new elections are pretty unlikely. Too much to lose for too many parties. I kind of thought Löfven would get it but now that he didn't probability of M+KD seems very high.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 14, 2018, 07:35:29 am
I don't think Lööf made us much wiser today. I would probably still tend to see a S-C-V-L-MP majority as the most likely solution over M-KD. Basically, it is for Lööf to decide. And while she has hitherto rejected M-KD out of principle (never rely on SD), the centre-left majority was "only" ruled out due to policy differences, although quite significant ones. Policy differences should be easier to bridge than clearly stated principles is what I'm thinking. It seemed like (parts of) L was at least ready to make the move.
I'm not sure how Lööf prioritises new elections vs. centre-left government now. New elections give a possibility (although polls suggest chances not that big) of an Allianse government which is much easier, but perhaps it also allows her the chance to be a bit more honest/straightforward in the campaign that she could end up supporting a centre-left government. But still, an election would also largely be blamed on her, and M & KD might not play too nice against her this time? And if the likely end result is a centre-left government, then why not take that now instead of going through such a campaign. And she might be able to get slightly more concessions now than if the Red-Green bloc lead is larger at the next election.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on December 16, 2018, 09:05:31 am
The policy gap can't be bridged. One or both parties would have to sell out completely.

Lööf wouldn't have to violate any stated principle at all actually. All she'd have to do is to not vote against a government led by her PM candidate and that does not cooperate with SD. That seems like an easier pill to swallow, IMO.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Lord Halifax on December 16, 2018, 01:09:53 pm
The policy gap can't be bridged. One or both parties would have to sell out completely.

Lööf wouldn't have to violate any stated principle at all actually. All she'd have to do is to not vote against a government led by her PM candidate and that does not cooperate with SD. That seems like an easier pill to swallow, IMO.

It seems Sweden lacks genuinely centrist parties. The so-called Centre Party is more right wing than your Conservatives on labour market issues and many economic issues, the Liberals are also right wing on labour market and taxes, the Christian Democrats have moved from being centrist to more Conservative than the Conservatives, and your Greens seem very watermelon-ish. So there aren't really any parties in between the Social Democrats and the Conservatives. Is that correct?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Tintrlvr on December 16, 2018, 02:38:57 pm
The policy gap can't be bridged. One or both parties would have to sell out completely.

Lööf wouldn't have to violate any stated principle at all actually. All she'd have to do is to not vote against a government led by her PM candidate and that does not cooperate with SD. That seems like an easier pill to swallow, IMO.

It seems Sweden lacks genuinely centrist parties. The so-called Centre Party is more right wing than your Conservatives on labour market issues and many economic issues, the Liberals are also right wing on labour market and taxes, the Christian Democrats have moved from being centrist to more Conservative than the Conservatives, and your Greens seem very watermelon-ish. So there aren't really any parties in between the Social Democrats and the Conservatives. Is that correct?

If you're talking strictly economics, I think MP, KD and SD are all somewhere between S and M (MP closer to S, KD and SD more nebulous). But they are obviously each far from the center on other, non-economic issues, and those non-economic issues are their flagship issues, so there's no generally centrist party that can work with both the right and left blocs. C used to be that party but has become libertarian-light in recent years (although its voter base is probably still the most classically "centrist" and wouldn't punish the party for supporting the left).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Helsinkian on December 16, 2018, 02:55:44 pm
If this were Finland, the parties would have sold out their election promises weeks ago in exchange for ministerial portfolios. I have to give credit to the Swedish parties on consistency.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Lord Halifax on December 16, 2018, 05:33:14 pm
The policy gap can't be bridged. One or both parties would have to sell out completely.

Lööf wouldn't have to violate any stated principle at all actually. All she'd have to do is to not vote against a government led by her PM candidate and that does not cooperate with SD. That seems like an easier pill to swallow, IMO.

It seems Sweden lacks genuinely centrist parties. The so-called Centre Party is more right wing than your Conservatives on labour market issues and many economic issues, the Liberals are also right wing on labour market and taxes, the Christian Democrats have moved from being centrist to more Conservative than the Conservatives, and your Greens seem very watermelon-ish. So there aren't really any parties in between the Social Democrats and the Conservatives. Is that correct?

If you're talking strictly economics, I think MP, KD and SD are all somewhere between S and M (MP closer to S, KD and SD more nebulous). But they are obviously each far from the center on other, non-economic issues, and those non-economic issues are their flagship issues, so there's no generally centrist party that can work with both the right and left blocs. C used to be that party but has become libertarian-light in recent years (although its voter base is probably still the most classically "centrist" and wouldn't punish the party for supporting the left).

It was a question for the Swedish posters. I am well aware of the differences on social issues. 


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on December 17, 2018, 04:07:06 am
The policy gap can't be bridged. One or both parties would have to sell out completely.

Lööf wouldn't have to violate any stated principle at all actually. All she'd have to do is to not vote against a government led by her PM candidate and that does not cooperate with SD. That seems like an easier pill to swallow, IMO.

It seems Sweden lacks genuinely centrist parties. The so-called Centre Party is more right wing than your Conservatives on labour market issues and many economic issues, the Liberals are also right wing on labour market and taxes, the Christian Democrats have moved from being centrist to more Conservative than the Conservatives, and your Greens seem very watermelon-ish. So there aren't really any parties in between the Social Democrats and the Conservatives. Is that correct?

If you're talking strictly economics, I think MP, KD and SD are all somewhere between S and M (MP closer to S, KD and SD more nebulous). But they are obviously each far from the center on other, non-economic issues, and those non-economic issues are their flagship issues, so there's no generally centrist party that can work with both the right and left blocs. C used to be that party but has become libertarian-light in recent years (although its voter base is probably still the most classically "centrist" and wouldn't punish the party for supporting the left).

It was a question for the Swedish posters. I am well aware of the differences on social issues. 

It depends a bit on what issue you look at, but yeah, the Centre party mixes different radical positions these Days and M and S are plausibly the two most centrist parties in terms of their platforms. I'd say the Liberals are fairly centrist as well. 


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: DL on December 17, 2018, 11:51:42 am
Of course it goes without saying that even the most rightwing member of the Moderate Party would be a Bernie Sanders Democrat if he or she lived in the US!!


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: bigic on December 17, 2018, 12:19:23 pm
I hope you mean that ironically. :)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Omega21 on December 17, 2018, 12:37:51 pm
Is any Swedish party (other than SD) against illegal immigration and for deportation of non-integrated migrants?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on December 17, 2018, 01:13:15 pm
The policy gap can't be bridged. One or both parties would have to sell out completely.

Lööf wouldn't have to violate any stated principle at all actually. All she'd have to do is to not vote against a government led by her PM candidate and that does not cooperate with SD. That seems like an easier pill to swallow, IMO.

But what would such a government look like and which parties would it get a majority with other than SD? I guess that a Kristersson government could say that it's not negotiating with SD and just adapt its budgets and legislation to such a degree that SD would be willing to vote for them, but that's just going to be plainly obvious after a while. And eventually SD are going to flex their muscles to show their power to their supporters by threating to vote for the Social Democratic budget unless they get concessions from Kristersson, so I don't think it'd be sustainable in the long run.

However Lööf always said that she'd never be part of a government dependent on SD during the election and said nothing about tolerating such a government, so I guess that's a loophole. However then you get to her refusal to support Kristersson in the Riksdag a few weeks back and the arguments she put forth then, which would be pretty difficult to backtrack from. How can you say no to a government with the argument that it would be dependent on the far-right one day and then say yes to it the next?

And then there's the issue of how the Centre Party's voters would feel about all this. Given that they framed this election as one about values and made SD their main opponents, would their voters buy C abstaining in a vote for a government that would be dependent on SD in every budget vote? It's quite possible that those voters would be infuriated with any move which gives SD more influence and would subsequently ditch the Centre Party, in spite of Lööf giving herself a loophole in her rhetoric during the election. It's a pure guess, but I think that some of their voters are much less right-wing than their membership and leadership and place a higher priority on keeping SD out of power rather than gutting the Employment Protection Act or implementing major tax cuts. I'm sure that the Centre Party is using it's big coffers to poll these issues, but I don't think there's a simple answer out there that won't result in accusations of betrayal from any flank of the party.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on December 18, 2018, 08:08:14 am
The policy gap can't be bridged. One or both parties would have to sell out completely.

Lööf wouldn't have to violate any stated principle at all actually. All she'd have to do is to not vote against a government led by her PM candidate and that does not cooperate with SD. That seems like an easier pill to swallow, IMO.

But what would such a government look like and which parties would it get a majority with other than SD? I guess that a Kristersson government could say that it's not negotiating with SD and just adapt its budgets and legislation to such a degree that SD would be willing to vote for them, but that's just going to be plainly obvious after a while. And eventually SD are going to flex their muscles to show their power to their supporters by threating to vote for the Social Democratic budget unless they get concessions from Kristersson, so I don't think it'd be sustainable in the long run.

However Lööf always said that she'd never be part of a government dependent on SD during the election and said nothing about tolerating such a government, so I guess that's a loophole. However then you get to her refusal to support Kristersson in the Riksdag a few weeks back and the arguments she put forth then, which would be pretty difficult to backtrack from. How can you say no to a government with the argument that it would be dependent on the far-right one day and then say yes to it the next?

And then there's the issue of how the Centre Party's voters would feel about all this. Given that they framed this election as one about values and made SD their main opponents, would their voters buy C abstaining in a vote for a government that would be dependent on SD in every budget vote? It's quite possible that those voters would be infuriated with any move which gives SD more influence and would subsequently ditch the Centre Party, in spite of Lööf giving herself a loophole in her rhetoric during the election. It's a pure guess, but I think that some of their voters are much less right-wing than their membership and leadership and place a higher priority on keeping SD out of power rather than gutting the Employment Protection Act or implementing major tax cuts. I'm sure that the Centre Party is using it's big coffers to poll these issues, but I don't think there's a simple answer out there that won't result in accusations of betrayal from any flank of the party.

Obviously no outcome is great for them - that's why it's taking so long. But I Think just tolerating a government is easier to get away with than having to actively support one (like they would have to do with S).

If SD starts demanding unpalatable things and M gives in, C can topple the government then but it seems unnecessary to do so in advance. And if SD starts demanding unpalatable things and M does not give in, they can let S topple the government together with SD (as they claim they never will but of course would) and let them sort the mess and bear the political fallout.

I'm not saying any of that is fantastic but I suspect it's better than Selling themselves to S.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on December 18, 2018, 08:10:09 am
Is any Swedish party (other than SD) against illegal immigration and for deportation of non-integrated migrants?

I can't tell if you're serious. Most of them are against illegal immigration, lol. I'm not sure what you mean by deporting non-integrated migrants. I don't Think even SD wants to evaluate peoples' "integration" level and then deport them based on that. That sounds a bit insane.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Omega21 on December 18, 2018, 09:25:51 am
Is any Swedish party (other than SD) against illegal immigration and for deportation of non-integrated migrants?

I can't tell if you're serious. Most of them are against illegal immigration, lol. I'm not sure what you mean by deporting non-integrated migrants. I don't Think even SD wants to evaluate peoples' "integration" level and then deport them based on that. That sounds a bit insane.

How come? Sweden accepted the most migrants/capita of any EU country, and all of these people came illegally...


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: DL on December 18, 2018, 10:06:55 am
Can someone explain why its so difficult for there to be a coalition in Sweden that brings together the centre left and centre right when these arrangements seem very routine in Finland and Norway? In Norway the Centre Party routinely forms coalitions with the Social Democrats and in Finaldn it is veryu common for there to be governments that bring together the Social Democrats and the Centre party and the NCC (whihc is the Finnish equivalent of the Moderates).   


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on December 18, 2018, 10:09:07 am
Is any Swedish party (other than SD) against illegal immigration and for deportation of non-integrated migrants?

I can't tell if you're serious. Most of them are against illegal immigration, lol. I'm not sure what you mean by deporting non-integrated migrants. I don't Think even SD wants to evaluate peoples' "integration" level and then deport them based on that. That sounds a bit insane.

How come? Sweden accepted the most migrants/capita of any EU country, and all of these people came illegally...


Apart from the fact that most parties support the changed immigration policy those people didn't come illegally by any Swedish definition. They came to seek asylum.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on December 18, 2018, 10:10:47 am
Can someone explain why its so difficult for there to be a coalition in Sweden that brings together the centre left and centre right when these arrangements seem very routine in Finland and Norway? In Norway the Centre Party routinely forms coalitions with the Social Democrats and in Finaldn it is veryu common for there to be governments that bring together the Social Democrats and the Centre party and the NCC (whihc is the Finnish equivalent of the Moderates).   

In these countries the far-right is also accepted in government, of course. In Finland politics is significantly less ideological than in Sweden. The Norwegian Centre party is a very different party than the Swedish one and is aligned with the left bloc these Days.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Ethelberth on December 18, 2018, 11:57:10 am
Originally, the SDP-Centre goverments (so called red clay governments) were modeled after Sweden (in thirties). NCP-SDP co-operation (brothers in arms co-operation) was common in big cities after war (against communists), whereas Centre and Commies used to co-operate on universal social policy issues.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Kosmos on December 20, 2018, 01:37:02 am
Traditionally, the Centre Party and Liberals (Folkpartiet) used to be in the middle while the Moderates where both economically and socially right wing. But that started changing as Reinfeldt moved the Moderate Party towards the middle and the Centre party became a more clear-cut liberal party. I would say the Centre party has undergone quite a transformation, going from being supported mainly by rural working class men to now having gained votes from a large number of middle class urban women.

Anyway, now that we have an M-KD budget, it seems logical that we also get an M-KD government. Maybe it will be unstable and not work out; we would find out down the line. With Kristersson having to keep both Lööf and Åkesson happy enough not to bring him down, it would be a fragile government that has to do a delicate balancing act. But given that S and C seemingly are too far apart to work together, there doesn't seem to be any better option.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 20, 2018, 10:55:46 am
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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 20, 2018, 11:04:20 am
The Speaker has presented his timetable for the next steps in the process. He has given the party leaders more time to think things through during Christmas, but he says that there is a special responsibility on the two PM candidates, Löfven and Kristersson, who will have to report to him once a week (28 December, 4 January and 10 January). Then on 14 January, the Speaker will meet all party leaders. Immediately after those meetings, he will present his next PM candidate to parliament, who will then be voted on 16 January. If this vote fails, he will present his 4th and final candidate on 21 January, who will be voted on 23 January. New elections would therefore happen at 21 April at latest.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 23, 2018, 05:13:09 am
In the recent Ipsos poll, KD (8%) is bigger than C (7%) while both MP and L is right at the threshold. S+V+MP clearly bigger than the Allianse (44-37). C's migration spokesperson, Johanna Jönsson, has said that "I personally would prefer to find a solution with Löfven rather than with Kristersson in this situation. It's very difficult for me to imagine letting forward an ever more conservative M in a situation where they are constantly pressed to go further right by its voters, own politicians and other parties."

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Kosmos on December 25, 2018, 03:15:56 pm
Most polls have KD in the 6-7% range though, and C usually (but not always) above 8%. So I am a little skeptical of the Ipsos poll for now. But time will tell.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Tender Branson on December 30, 2018, 03:42:37 am
If there is no government formed by Jan. 23rd, will new elections automatically be held on April 21st ?

Or is there a possibility for them to be held together with the EU elections on May 26th ?

I assume that new general elections would have to be called immediately, but it would be better to hold them together with the EU elections because A) it would save money and B) turnout in the EU elections would be much higher than the usual low 45% even in Sweden, because general elections typically have 85-90% turnout.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 30, 2018, 05:47:01 am
Inizio poll also has KD booming; at 8.2%. C at 8.4% and L at 3.2%. Clear red-green lead in this one as well.

An extra election must be held within three months of the fourth failed PM vote. The Speaker has stated that the 4th PM vote will take place on 23 January (if needed), so 21 April is the latest possible election date.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Tender Branson on December 30, 2018, 06:51:59 am
An extra election must be held within three months of the fourth failed PM vote. The Speaker has stated that the 4th PM vote will take place on 23 January (if needed), so 21 April is the latest possible election date.

I already thought that there would be a legal hurdle here ...

Maybe the Speaker should consider eliminating the Jan. 16 PM vote and set a final one in late February then, so that if this fails as well, the election can be held together with the EU elections.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on December 30, 2018, 07:16:41 am
An extra election must be held within three months of the fourth failed PM vote. The Speaker has stated that the 4th PM vote will take place on 23 January (if needed), so 21 April is the latest possible election date.

I already thought that there would be a legal hurdle here ...

Maybe the Speaker should consider eliminating the Jan. 16 PM vote and set a final one in late February then, so that if this fails as well, the election can be held together with the EU elections.

I think the Speaker has bundled the two votes together to ensure there's not too much tactical thinking between candidates (wanting to be in the 4th PM vote where the pressure on those voting you down is the biggest). Instead the third vote is now the crunch vote, and the 4th looks more like a procedural vote to proceed to elections. There are basically only the same two government options, which have been obvious for a while and which have both been voted down already. L and especially C have drawn out the process, but now have to choose one option and allow it in the third vote or neither and vote no twice procedurally.

If there's a postponement, I think it would be of the third vote and would be because negotiations were flowing very positively, but needing a day or two more. So such a scenario would likely end up without a new election anyway.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: mubar on December 30, 2018, 01:06:20 pm
This latest possible day of early election, 21 April 2019, is Easter Sunday though. In the middle of long holiday period (Sweden gives Good Friday and Easter Monday as public holidays too), it's about the worst possible day to hold an election. So I would certainly think that Sunday 14 April is the last realistic election date. Or maybe even earlier such as Sunday 7 April, since quite many people must have already booked long vacations around Easter, so calling a snap election for such a holiday season could negatively affect turnout and availability of election officials.

It wouldn't do much good to try to postpone the snap election to May if it must be held anyway. People are already upset that a proper budget couldn't be passed by the end of the year, dragging the govt formation for additional months wouldn't be good for stability. But having a parliamentary re-run in April and then the European election in May probably lowers the turnout in both, and as the famously high electoral participation boosts the trust and legitimacy of Swedish democracy, a potential drop in turnout seems scary.

Anyway, Sunday 14 April is also the date of Finnish parliamentary election. It would certainly be interesting to have our neighbours vote at the same time. Maybe we can start syncing all our elections as a sign of how close our nations are? ;)


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on January 07, 2019, 10:18:34 am
The Liberals met with both PM contenders today, one after the other. But Everything remains very secretive.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Helsinkian on January 11, 2019, 05:26:26 am
Looks like Centre and the Liberals are now supporting Löfven.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on January 11, 2019, 06:07:35 am
Looks like Centre and the Liberals are now supporting Löfven.

Nothing has been settled yet but it looks like it could be heading in that direction. Aftonbladet reported a few hours ago that S, C, L and MP have reached an agreement where the Social Democrats have gone further in compromises with the Centre Party over employment and housing policy than in the failed attempt from December. The Greens will get back the air travel tax which was scrapped when the M-KD budget won the vote last month, while the Liberals will presumably get the same tax cut for high earners that was in the agreement from December, along with a plan for how the school system can be nationalized. All parties except for S are also in favour of reintroducing family reunification for refugees, though the Greens have been the driving force, and that also seems to be part of the agreement.

The Centre Party's advisory board will have final say for their party and will make their decision tomorrow, though the parliamentary group is meeting today and could announce what decision they will recommend the board to take as early as this afternoon. The Liberals will make their decision on Sunday through their party council, which will be broadcast live on SVT 2 starting at 12.00 CET.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 11, 2019, 08:38:42 am
Lööf has called a press conference for 15.30.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 11, 2019, 09:52:27 am
Annie Löof announces that C's parliamentary group and party board supports letting forward Löfven as PM by voting blank in the PM vote. Tomorrow, the final decision will be taken by the party council with 50 delegates from local party districts.

The Liberals are expected to follow the same path, although they are significantly more divided. 8 of 20 MPs have recommended supporting Kristersson in public. The party's parliamentary group and party board will meet tomorrow, and make a recommendation for the party council on Sunday.

Lööf is again very harsh towards the Left party. Claiming that they will be kept away from influence. She says they have driven Sweden leftwards during the last term; a development that will now be stopped. So she is daring them to vote no to Löfven, which would be hard for them. What other solution should the Left Party recommend instead? Their only other option seems total isolation. In this solution, they will get some things they want on environment and mass migration. However, they will look subservient if they just accept this S-C-L-MP deal without getting anything significant back. I still lean towards them allowing Löfven with a blank vote, but probably with a very harsh criticism of the agreed deal and a tough opposition stance during the term where they are likely to rise significantly.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 12, 2019, 09:12:22 am
C party council massively supports the deal with Löfven. 56-2 was the vote with only two representatives for C students voting against. Illustrates the fact that C has been much more united in seeking an accord with the centre-left than the Liberals


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 12, 2019, 12:30:50 pm
Liberal's parliamentary group and party board recommends letting forward Löfven, but with more dissent. The vote was 13-7 in the parliamentary group, and 17-8 in the party board. Tomorrow, the party council will make the final decision.

Not a word has been uttered by the Left Party's leadership yet. However, former leader Lars Ohly states that the party has been humiliated by this deal (correct) and that they should not let forward Löfven with this deal.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 13, 2019, 04:14:02 am
Inizio poll of the words voters choose to describe their feeling about the agreement.

From the top: Disappointment, distrust, resignation, relief, concerned, angry, hopeful, confident, happy, proud, none of the above, don't know.

So M, KD and SD voters quite uniformly chose the five negative words (disappointment, distrust, resignation, concerned, angry). V voters mostly relieved, but certainly some dissent already visible. For L+C, there is relief, hope, confidence and happiness, but also 10-15% for each of the three top negative words. S+MP are very relieved, hopeful and confident and the negative choices only picked by 5-7%.

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 13, 2019, 05:39:44 am
MP's party board accepts the deal as well. Hardly surprising.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 13, 2019, 08:33:45 am
News bureau TT writes that "The Left Party leans towards voting no to Löfven". The Party Board will have a meeting today, and then the parliamentary group will meet tomorrow before Sjöstedt go to meet the Speaker. The article states that the decision is for the parliamentary group to make, but that they generally follow the advice of the Party Board in major decisions. TT estimates that there will probably be a majority against the deal in both the board and in parliament. Both due to the specific right-wing economic policies, and the deliberate humiliation of the Left Party (the statements about them not getting any influence).


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 13, 2019, 09:27:55 am
Liberals' party council votes to support the deal with 62-30. So now we await the Left Party's decision.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 13, 2019, 11:43:05 am
If the Left Party is to reject the deal now and don't let forward Löfven, the most sensible way today is probably to ask for negotiations around the deal to make it acceptable for them. In that way, they can perhaps avoid some of the blame if we end up without a Löfven government. This government formation surely has given more exctitement than one could reasonbly ask for. We have just seen a Liberal party council live streamed for hours on the state broadcaster with a majority of the members explaining their decision by stating just how awful it would be to support a government dependent on SD. Are they now just going to turn 180 degrees in a few days and do exactly that if the Left Party rejects the deal? That would really be something. And even if they did, would SD accept such a government?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: rob in cal on January 13, 2019, 12:29:28 pm
  So if S was against family reunification of immigrants, are they developing an immigration policy closer to SD than the other parties?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: jaichind on January 13, 2019, 03:08:35 pm
How will the vote work?   

So we have S (100) and MP (16)  vote for Löfven right? 
And we know that M(70), SD(62), and KD(22) will vote against. 
I read that C(31) will abstain. 
Will L(20) vote for Löfven  or abstain ? 
It seems for the math to work Löfven then Löfven will still be outvoted by M+SD+KD unless C or L can vote for Löfven AND V(28) votes for Löfven with V being a big unknown right now.

If so what is the point of C abstaining?  If they are going to take the "hit" of backing Löfven they might as well have it win a majority and go on to rule.  They they abstain and Löfven goes down would they not get blamed from both sides and lose votes to both sides ?


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Aboa on January 13, 2019, 03:15:35 pm
How will the vote work?  

So we have S (100) and MP (16)  vote for Löfven right?  
And we know that M(70), SD(62), and KD(22) will vote against.  
I read that C(31) will abstain.  
Will L(20) vote for Löfven  or abstain ?  
It seems for the math to work Löfven then Löfven will still be outvoted by M+SD+KD unless C or L can vote for Löfven AND V(28) votes for Löfven with V being a big unknown right now.

If so what is the point of C abstaining?  If they are going to take the "hit" of backing Löfven they might as well have it win a majority and go on to rule.  They they abstain and Löfven goes down would they not get blamed from both sides and lose votes to both sides ?

Abstaining from the vote is in practice a yes vote as to get confirmed government only needs to not have (absolute) majority voting against it.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: jaichind on January 13, 2019, 03:17:06 pm
How will the vote work?  

So we have S (100) and MP (16)  vote for Löfven right?  
And we know that M(70), SD(62), and KD(22) will vote against.  
I read that C(31) will abstain.  
Will L(20) vote for Löfven  or abstain ?  
It seems for the math to work Löfven then Löfven will still be outvoted by M+SD+KD unless C or L can vote for Löfven AND V(28) votes for Löfven with V being a big unknown right now.

If so what is the point of C abstaining?  If they are going to take the "hit" of backing Löfven they might as well have it win a majority and go on to rule.  They they abstain and Löfven goes down would they not get blamed from both sides and lose votes to both sides ?

Abstaining from the vote is in practice a yes vote as government only needs to not have (absolute) majority voting against it.

Ah.  Got it.  Thanks for this.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 13, 2019, 03:35:55 pm
  So if S was against family reunification of immigrants, are they developing an immigration policy closer to SD than the other parties?

Well, closer than V, MP, C and L yes. Not that a position to the right of them will necessarily tell you much :) But yes , they have tightened their policies, and were the driving force for the government to introduce some stricter laws when the refugee crisis was at its highest. However, they are still aggressively opposed to SD in the migration area, calling them racists etc. And were willing to make concessions in the government negotiations, so I wouldn't say they have moved nearly as much as the Danish Social Democrats for example.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 13, 2019, 03:46:23 pm
Demoskop poll for Expressen. Question: "Should the parties make the agreement?"

45% in favour, 48% opposed. 8% don't know.

Among C/L voters at the general election, 60% are in favour while 35% against. Among current C/L voters, 93% are in favour, so it's quite logically those opposed to cooperation with Löfven, that has left the two parties. The article mentions that 69% of V and MP voters are in favour of the deal, but doesn't mention the number for Social Democrats. Among Sweden Democrat voters, 93% are opposed to the deal, while M + KD are 78% opposed.

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Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: FredLindq on January 14, 2019, 01:34:33 am
V might actually vote No...

They will tell what they have decided later this morning.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: FredLindq on January 14, 2019, 01:43:08 am
Rumours has it now tha V votes No.

If so there is a majority against Löfvén.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 14, 2019, 03:44:15 am
Would be interesting to see what the Speaker does if that is indeed what V tells him?
Will he put forward Löfven anyway? It would be kind of weird if he did not when there has been a lot of energy and time devoted to this agreement, which is the biggest movement during the whole process. Of course, you can also argue that it would be weird to put forward Löfven twice in a row, without a majority. Perhaps also depends on the exact message of V. If they go for the "we are ready to negotiate about the agreement" line, then the Speaker would probably be more justified to put forward Löfven perhaps as there is then at least a theoretical chance that they could be convinced to vote blank.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 14, 2019, 06:23:20 am
Left Party rejects the deal, and says it will not let forward Löfven under this agreement. Sjöstedt recommends that Kristersson is put forward for the PM vote, since the M-KD budget is the agreed budget for the year. He says they will have discussions with Löfven to remove the intolerable things from the agreement, so that they can let him forward.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Gustaf on January 14, 2019, 06:36:14 am
Lolllllll

This is fantastic. I get where V is coming from though. This is going to be a nightmare negotiation for everyone.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on January 14, 2019, 07:54:44 am
Note that Sjöstedt said that he didn't require anything in writing or it was changes to the agreement with the C, L and MP which he prioritized. It rather sounds like he'd settle for a handshake and gentleman's agreement with Löfven where the Social Democrats promise continue to working with V on issues outside of the four-party agreement and protect things that V got in the budget negotiations during the previous term in the forthcoming negotiations with C, L and MP.

Björklund also said in his press conference that it wouldn't a problem if S pushed for things in budget negotiations where Sjöstedt happened to be of the same opinion, and since a lot of if not all of the things V got during the past term are also things that S likes there could be a way out there. Maybe Löfven will give some assurances that S will protect and push for things like free medicine for children, free buss passes for youth during the summer holidays and tax deductions for union memberships in the budget negotiations.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 14, 2019, 09:10:21 am
Speaker Norlen announces that he postpones the PM process by two days to allow for Löfven to gather enough support. So there will be a new Speaker round on Wednesday, then the Speaker will put forward his PM candidate. The vote will then be on Friday.

So now a few days to make an agreement as described by Lord Marbury above


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on January 16, 2019, 04:57:35 am
Sjöstedt says that V will abstain in the vote on Friday and let Löfven form a government, with the threat that the party will put forward a vote of no confidence later in the term if the government presents proposals before parliament that would weaken the Employment Protection Act and liberalise rent control regulations for new flats.

I wonder how C and L will react to this since those two proposals were two of their biggest victories in the agreement with the Social Democrats.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: Diouf on January 18, 2019, 04:36:36 am
Löfven elected PM with a S-MP government.  115 voted yes (S + MP), 77 voted blank (C+V+L), 153 voted against (M-SD-KD).

A fairly long government formation by Swedish standards. Despite C and L drawing out the negotiations quite a lot, the direction of travel seemed clear throughout the process. The two parties' ideological commitment to mass migration/opposition to SD meant that there seemed a very little chance of them accepting a Kristersson government. Even after the two times, they voted down Löfven there was no indication that they would turn towards Kristersson. So looking at the S-C-L-MP deal, you can argue that S should/could have negotiated even tougher as C/L were never likely to choose another PM than him, and a new election looked likely to develop favourably for S and the centre-left. However, the final declaration of whether they conceded too much can probably only be made after the government has come to an end and its policies can be judged. Several of the proposed policies in the agreement are meant to go to commissions etc., and then a real agreement on the specifics are to be reached.


Title: Re: Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote
Post by: The Lord Marbury on January 21, 2019, 07:00:20 am
Löfven has just delivered his policy statement to the Riksdag and announced the members of his cabinet. The Greens have dropped from six to five ministers after the losses they suffered in the election, while the Social Democrats stay at 17, including the Prime Ministers. Six ministers are departing the government, three of whom were known before today. No big surprises with individuals without a lot of political experience like was the case with Alice Bah Kuhnke or Annika Strandhäll in 2014, pretty much all of the new names are experienced politicians to various degrees.

Ministers who retain their previous portfolios
Magdalena Andersson, 51 (S) - Minister for Finance
Peter Hultqvist, 60 (S) - Minister for Defence
Margot Wallström, 64 (S) - Minister for Foreign Affairs. Pretty much the same responsibilites that she had during the previous term, but she loses the Nordic cooperation issues to Ann Linde.
Tomas Eneroth, 52 (S) - Minister for Infrastructure. The same job he had before, but he moves from the Ministry of Enterprise to become head of a new Ministry of Infrastructure.
Morgan Johansson, 48 (S) - Minister for Justice and Migration. Briefly lost responsbility for migration policy to Heléne Fritzon following Anders Ygeman’s resignation in 2017 when he also became Minister for Home Affairs. Now he is responsible for the same areas as he was when first appointed in 2014.
Ann Linde, 57 (S) - Minister for Trade and Nordic Cooperation. Handled trade during the past term as well, but loses responsibility for EU affairs to Hans Dahlgren whilst gaining the Nordic cooperation issues from Margot Wallström.
Ardalan Shekarabi, 40 (S) - Minister for Public Administration. Keeps the public administration portfolio he had during the previous term but gets added responsibility for consumer affairs which have been on Per Bolund’s table for the last four years.

Ministers who get new portfolios
Mikael Damberg, 47 (S) - Minister for Home Affairs. Was Minister for Enterprise and Innovation during the previous term
Peter Eriksson, 60 (MP) - Minister for International Development. Was Minister for Housing and Digitalization during the previous term
Lena Hallengren, 45 (S) - Minister for Social Affairs. Was Minister for Children, the Elderly and Gender Equality towards the end of the last term after Åsa Regnér left the government in early 2018 to take up a UN position.
Annika Strandhäll, 43 (S) - Minister for Social Security. She returns to the job she had before 2017, when she was appointed Minister for Social Affairs after Gabriel Wikström’s resignation
Anna Ekström, 59 (S) - Minister for Education. Was Minister for Upper Secondary Schools and Adult Education during the previous term after being appointed in 2016 following Aida Hadzialic’s resignation.
Isabella Lövin, 55 (MP) - Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Environment and Climate Change. The co-leader of the Greens was Minister for International Development and Climate Change during the previous term.
Ibrahim Baylan, 46 (S) - Minister for Enterprise. Was Minister for Policy Coordination and Energy in the Prime Minister’s Office from 2016 and before that he was Minister for Energy in the Environment Ministry.
Per Bolund, 47 (MP) - Deputy Minister for Finance and Minister for Housing. Was also the deputy in the Finance Ministry during the last four years, but now gets to handle housing as well.

New ministers
Hans Dahlgren, 70 (S) - Minister for EU Affairs, was previously Stefan Löfven’s State Secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office. One of the most experienced foreign policy experts in the Social Democrats, having first started in the Foreign Ministry during the 1970s, later working directly under Social Democratic Prime Ministers Olof Palme, Ingvar Carlsson, Göran Persson and lastly Stefan Löfven.
Matilda Ernkrans, 45 (S) - Minister for Higher Education and Research, former Chair of the Riksdag’s Education Committee
Jennie Nilsson, 46 (S) - Minister for Rural Affairs. Former Deputy Chair of the Riksdag’s Enterprise Committee and Mayor of Hylte municipality in Halland before being elected to parliament.
Amanda Lind, 38 (MP) - Minister for Culture and Democracy. Former Party Secretary of the Greens and before that Deputy Mayor of Härnösand
Åsa Lindhagen, 38 (MP) - Minister for Gender Equality with added responsibilities for anti-discrimination and anti-segreation issues. Former MP and Deputy Mayor for Social Affairs in Stockholm from 2014 to 2018.
Anders Ygeman, 48 (S) - Minister for Energy and Digitalization. Former leader of the Social Democratic parliamentary group and before that Minister for Home Affairs under Löfven until his resignation under the threat of a vote of no confidence in 2017.

Leaving the government
Gustav Fridolin, 35 (MP) - fmr. Minister for Education, leaving politics and returning to teaching after the Greens elect a new co-leader in May.
Heléne Fritzon, 58 (S) - fmr. Minister for Migration, running for the European Parliament
Alice Bah Kuhnke, 47 (MP) - fmr. Minister for Culture and Democracy, running for the European Parliament
Sven-Erik Bucht, 64 (S) - fmr. Minister for Rural Affairs
Helene Hellmark Knutsson, 49 (S) - fmr. Minister for Higher Education and Research
Karolina Skog, 42 (MP) - fmr. Minister for the Environment