Talk Elections

The Czechs are about to either elect a new president or reelect the incumbent Milos Zeman. The run-off is two weeks after the first round, and its nearly 100% certain there will be a run-off.

Only three candidates had more than 5% support in the latest poll:

- Miloš Zeman, incumbent, ex-SocDem, hardliner on refugees and eurosceptic.
- Jiří Drahoš, scientist, running on restoring dignity to the office.
- Michal Horáček, poet, music producer and businessman.

Though Mirek Topolánek from ODS has been high in a few polls as well.

It looks like a run-off between Zeman and Drahoš, and the latest poll had them tied 45-45 in that scenario with 10% undecided, so it will be a matter of who turns up at the polls. Zeman has been a very blunt, very political and very confrontational president, so there is an enormous difference in style to the cultured and refined Drahoš. The question is whether enough urban and young voters care enough to show up at the polls to throw Zeman out, and whether some of Zeman's traditionalist small town supporters think he has become a bit much and end up staying home.

Regarding Drahoš I should add that he has flip-flopped on whether he would swear in Communist ministers, which he originally said he wouldn't, and has claimed that he expects the Russians will try to "influence" the presidential election and is convinced they influenced the legislative elections. Zeman then attacked him for spreading conspiracy theories.

Considering the nature of his likely support base this strikes me as, er, brave. Yes. Let's call it brave.

Go Drahoš!

Just going by their Wikipedia pages, Horáček seems like the best. Drahoš was endorsed by the Young Social Democrats though...

I really liked Zeman when he was PM, but my opinion of him as President is low.

Pojd'me Milos!!

I’m supporting Zeman in this one.

Best placed to beat Zeman.

Some remarks from CZ:
1. Zeman is mainly supported by voters of the ANO movement of the new Prime Minister Babiš (populism of the centre, anti-party politics and so on), of communists and the far right populist movement Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) of Tomio Okamura. Also big part of Social democrats is in favour of him although the majority of the party establishment hates him because of his efforts to destroy the party or at least its current leadership...
2. Drahoš is supported mainly by the voters of centre-right (TOP 09, STAN and KDU-ČSK) but surprisingly also by the voters of conservative ODS whose former PM and party chairman Mirek Topolánek is also running (without official support of the ODS). Drahoš was officially backed by KDU-ČSL and STAN but is running as Zeman or Horáček as the candidate of the citizens (supported by at least 50 thousands of signatures)
3. The most important feature of Zeman’s presidency in international politics is his positive attitude towards Russia and PR China.

4.  Horáček is without political links. I suppose his voters are rather fans of his text of popular songs. He refused any backing by the political parties and is running “direct candidacy”.

How do you rate Drahoš's  chances if he makes the run-off?

He is only one who could beat Zeman in the second round. He is not linked to any political party or even to any political movement. No one knows his political views in details. This the reason why he could unite very broad coalitions from greens to the conservatives and be stronger than Zeman.
Zeman  has very broad group of supporters with about 40 -45 % but he is hated by the second party of the society.
It could be similar to the last Slovak presidential elections Fico (big favourite and political personality) vs. Kiska (not very known businessman).
But big disadvantage for Drahoš is his not very well run campaign. I would bet now for 51:49 in favour of Zeman. It will mainly depend on the turnout (based on divide urban vs. rural) because Zeman is representative of socially conservative but leftist country side and Drahoš has to unite the liberal world in all his different parts which is by us voted on the cities (on one side greens and pirates , on the other side economically liberal conservatives)..

Is Topolanek really surging, or are the Phoenix Research polls trash? Don't know enough about Czech pollsters to tell.

Phoenix isnt among the best Czech pollsters. Its number for Topolánek is an exception. In other polls is Topolánek bellow 10 pct. He has better campaign than Drahoš and is the only real politician in the race besides Zeman but is still strugling with public perception of the end of his premirship. His close adviser entered the prison for 4 years few weeks ago....

Thanks for the information.

Today is the last today to publish polls before the first round:

Median and TNS Kantar for Czech TV:

Zeman 42,5 % (potencial 49 %)
Drahoš 27,5 % (43 %)
Horáček 12,5 % (31,5 %)
Fischer 7 % (22 %)
Topolánek 6% (15,5 %)
Hilšer 2,5 % (11,5 %)
Kulhánek 1,5 % (9,5 %)
Hynek 0,5 % (8 %)
Hannig 0,5 % (6 %)

Second round:

Zeman 44 % (sure 30 %, 14 % likely) vs Drahoš 48,5 % ( 35 %, 13,5 %)

Zeman 48 % vs Horáček 46 %

Zeman 61 % vs Topolánek 31,5 %

Zeman 50,5 % vs Fischer 42 %

Prediction:
1. Zeman
2. Fischer
3. Drahos
4.-6. Hilser, Horacek and Topolanek
7.-9. Hynek, Kulhanek, Hannig

Based on what? Drahos is second in all credible polls; and why have Fischer that high?

Wishful thinking?

Some politicians in CZ believe that Fischer could be another Schwarzenberg from 2013 who jumped as an outsider in the polls to the second. But there are no signs he could replicate this path. Interesting: he is now supported publicky by Schwarzenberg, but not so known in the public

Is there some reasoning, outside of hunches or partisan wishful thinking, why ZEMAN will NOT be re-elected for a second term as President this weekend? Indications of drunkenness aside, Zeman's positions fit the national mood perfectly in Czechia. Have you forgotten that the Left, the established parties, were routed to historic, wipe-out levels after the October legislative elections? The 'youth' vote went all out for Babis, Okamura's SPD and the Pirate Party. Don't count on this amorphous 'youth', or whatever you want to call it, to suddenly have a change of heart and vote Drahos.

Its not about "hunches". Most polls have had him narrowly losing to Drahos in a run-off. So its natural to expect it to be a close race.

Its worth remembering that this is not necessarily a political election. Many people want a more distinguished and representative president, who is above politics and less brash. Zeman is unpopular among the urban middle class and might have become too melodramatic and "hammy" for his traditional supporters, who may simply stay home.

Considering your only other "contribution" here was to predict Hofer would win with 61% of the vote, I wonder who is doing partisan wishful thinking?

live results
http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24/specialy/2315662-volba-prezidenta-2018

Drahos seems a lot like VdB 2.0

It seems the runoff will be quite close.

My prediction for the runoff:

51.1% Drahoš
48.9% Zeman

Turnout: 63%

I wouldn't be surprised if it was down to less than 1%.

Drahos has been endorsed by all the other candidates except the two on the far right (Hynek and Hannig), which should count for something. I think he will win quite comfortably.

lol

Tuesday's no-confidence vote ensures a Babis double-duty push to keep his high-placed friend in Prague Castle, or else. I'm inclined to think he'll succeed. The Drahos challenge depends on, in reality, enhanced support from East/West and Central Prague + Czechs abroad. The rest of Czechia is Zeman’s to lose. To step past 50% the second round on a 26% first-round finish is a mighty tall mountain for Drahos to climb, even with the heavy-lift assist of the five defeated rival candidates using pulleys and ice-axes.

Extracting an arbitrary chunk of voter support from each of these five losing candidates then tacking it with that of Drahos' to reach your magic number is, to say the least, unscientific. No one has any idea what percentage of support will go where, or how much more vote is out there. Any one else's guess will be as good as yours.

The real question you must ponder is: Has the mood in Czechia changed that much since that historic October legislative election brought in the anti-immigrant boot of Babis & Okamura? Is the country suddenly anxious to change gears with a President Drahos?

I think that is far too simplistic. You are very focused on immigration, so you expect the Czech voters to be as well, but other issues, including what kind of president you want, will play a role as well. Remember that this isn't an executive presidency.

For what its worth the first poll with its entire sample collected after the first round (13-17/1) from Phoenix Research has it as a near tie with more than a quarter undecided, and Zeman polling slightly  lower than his first round result, whereas Drahoš has gained more than ten points.

Jiří Drahoš 37.0
Milos Zeman 35.6
Undecided 27.4%

59.8% of respondents say they plan to vote.

Thanks, Lord Halifax. Fair points.

However, the defenestration of the established parties we saw in the October election, which mostly hit those who tagged Left, was not just a public cry to enhance/maintain the country's immigration quota policy. It was equally an expression of disdain for politicians and political parties who linked themselves to the heavy weight of Brussels, and further, and more poignantly, it was a revolt against the "business as usual" pursuits and thought processes which were calcifying Czechia's political system.

It was a strong, historic vote-booth uprising. Cataclysmic to all the established parties. That cannot be denied.

So I dare say, that with the public's fuse still burning in the tank, which 'package' of credentials and political beliefs has a better chance taking Prague Castle in one week?

Does the public find Zeman distasteful enough to pack him off after just one term? I just don't think so.

The Czech punters think Drahos will win. They also think he will win at least two provincial regions and not just run up the margin in Prague.

"The chances of former Science Academy head Jiri Drahos to be elected Czech president have been rising in the past few days, according to bookmakers who wave lowered the odds for his victory since Monday from 1.6-1 - 1.68-1 to 1.5-1 - 1.52-1, the betting agencies told CTK on Thursday. (..) Bets on Zeman being re-elected are now accepted at the odds from 2.452-1 to 2.75-1."

"Zeman will win in nine out of the 14 Czech regions, while he is a favourite in the Usti, Vysocina and Moravia-Silesia regions (..) Drahos is favourite in Prague as well as the Central Bohemia and Hradec Kralove regions, according to the odds. Fortuna does not even enable bets on his victory in Prague since it is taken for granted."

http://praguemonitor.com/2018/01/19/most-betters-bookmakers-believe-drahošs-victory

I mean, the results from October are a bit of a Rorschach test - you can look at them and see what you want, and a rebuke to the establishment could be just as much bad news for Zeman (who is, after all,  a part of said establishment) as it is Drahos.

No doubt as everyone has already heard (since we're all presumably watching developments in this race very closely), Drahos' debate performance vs. Zeman on Monday received very poor marks. Interest was rather high; 2.2 million people watched the debate on Monday. Post-debate polls showed Zeman the better performer at 56%.

Unless Drahos improves tonight, by avoiding a repeat of his glazed, deer-in-the-headlights responses last night, and loosening what appears to be his rather stiff backside, his chances of victory this weekend will be set back irretrievably.

It's "make-or-break." If it's "break," people will justifiably conclude that a candidate who's only claim to fame is that he was a President of the Czech Academy of Sciences is just not ready for primetime.

Should be noted that the pattern in Czechia has long been for rural areas to both report first and count faster, and for Prague to come in last and still be counting when others are done. The first results should show Zeman with a healthy lead even if Drahos has ended up winning.

Does anyone know how the debate went today? Enough to save Drahos?

I thought Thursday's final debate went fairly badly for Drahos. He needed to display forcefully and convincingly to the many doubters out there who question his (quite de minimus) bona fides why he deserved to take Zeman's place at Prague Castle. 

Instead, he was stuck on the defensive for most of the night, especially in relation to questions with regard to his utter lack of political experience. This is a severe weakness on Drahos' part.  The night can be summed up by Drahos' response to these questions: "I am no political newcomer." He left this line hovering in thin air without further elaboration.

Zeman will have two terms.

Miloš said that he’s in favor of a referendum.

Any chance we see #Czexit?

Czech-out, surely?

Anyway, I doubt it; unless Babis changes his mind on the EU.

Zeman is the one who needs saving, not Drahos, given that Drahos leads in polling and has most of the endorsements of other candidates from the first round (ie, if the vote according to the way first-round candidates endorsed, Drahos wins 57-43).

It does seem that Bojicat is correct that Zeman has gained ground on Drahos between the rounds; the pre-first round average of a Drahos vs. Zeman second round was a Drahos win 47.2-43.7. Today it is a Drahos win 43.7-43.3; a virtual tie. Given Zeman's under-performance in the first round, the over-performance for more liberal, pro-European candidates in the first round (undecideds mostly went to candidates that were more, um, liberal than Drahos), and Drahos' continued lead in polling, I'd probably much rather be Drahos. But Zeman certainly still has a shot, and it seems like the past month or so of his campaign has gone pretty well.

I'm gonna say:

Miloš Zeman (SPO): 51.2%
Jiří Drahoš (I): 48.8%

I might be overestimating it, but I think Zeman will (unfortunately) win by more than some expect.

Turnout was already some 50% yesterday, so overall it could be much higher than estimated.

Probably close to 70%.

This’ll be close. I strongly support Zeman and am optimistic about his chances, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Drahos wins.

Links:

http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24#live

https://volby.idnes.cz/

https://www.idnes.cz/

Polls have closed, and as usual it seems like there will be no prognosis or the like, only real votes. So the Prague results, which will favour Drahos clearly, will come towards the end.

No exit polls as usual in Czech Rep :( but counting at polling stations as per most countries and only 2 candidates so should be a quick count, Czech Rep usually is pretty fast anyway.

I reckon Zeman to win with 51.5-52.5%.

Thanks, DC

Diouf, I know this isn't the Denmark or Norway thread but thanks so much for all your coverage of these countries recently.

(I didn't realise that Norway coalition formation had continued into 2018, assumed it was going to be another Hoyre + Progress minority govt!)

Anyway have got all the live Czech coverage on for this one so it should be interesting!

Thanks

Does anybody have a calculated guess of how many voters Drahos will win with in Prague? It seems like turnout overall is a bit higher than in the 1st round

Any indication of the margin Zeman needs before Prague starts coming in?

if 60%+ for Zeman, he would win. If less than 55%, he would lose

So, with the current 57%, it looks like it will be very tight, I guess

And right now he's at 57 :)

I think he'll win this with 51% minimum.

Drahos currently 68% in Prague, will that be enough to counteract nearly all the rest of the country, with a lot of high 50's & low 60's for Zeman.

Anyway this is really interesting - very fast counting as always, 4K stations reporting in first 40 mins!

I guess by 4pm local time we should be getting close to the final result.

With 29.75% counted nationally, Zeman at 56.05%, with 6.94% counted in Prague where Zeman is at 31.57%

With 46.61% counted nationally, Zeman is at 55.14% with 16.32% counted in Prague, where he is at 31.86%

Don't think this is going to be enough for Zeman.

Interesting.

It seems that Prague is roughly comparable with Vienna when it comes to the voting results, but compared with the Czech Republic, other Austrian big cities delivered much more to VdB than other Czech big cities are delivering for Drahos. The rural areas in both countries are also comparable.

So, the medium-sized cities (100.000-400.000 inhabitants) are making the difference here ...

Over 60% of the total vote counted now, and 29% in Prague. Zeman at 54.5%.

From what I understand, Drahos will only net another 150K votes in Prague (25% counted, up 50K).

But the current nationwide Zeman-lead is more than 200.000, so Drahos will also need to net some additional votes in the rural areas ...

This seems tough.

With 35% of the vote counted in Prague, Drahos is at 68% of the vote and has 133k votes. He will net about 250k more votes.

It seems that Zeman has this in the bag.

I predict him to win by a 51.4-48.6 margin in the end.

The medium-sized cities will make the difference.

Whereas in Austria they went to VdB with the same margin as Vienna, in the Czech Rep. they are voting more like rural areas ...

No, 140K - because Zeman is also getting votes.

You're right; I interpreted "net" differently. Drahos is not going to get a 200k+ margin in Prague.

The runoff map will look like GA, just without the black belt ...

My updated projection:

Zeman will win with 51.7-51.9% in the end.

Or with a 185.000 vote margin.

89% counted, 53/47. 63% counted in Prague.

This is over.

Zeman wins re-election.

Czech media outlets are calling it for Zeman now.

Quite surprising and weird that the Czechs would re-elect an old, Russophile alcoholic ...

I really thought Drahos would win this as a checks and balances candidate/option.

Great news.

Voting results of big cities:

Prague + suburbs (1.6 million people): 65-70% Drahos (even the suburbs were 65% Drahos)

Brno (380.000 people): 58% Drahos, but the suburbs were 52% Zeman

Ostrava (324.000 people): 62% Zeman, suburbs: 70% Zeman

Plzen (190.000 people): 52% Drahos, suburbs: 58-60% Zeman

Liberec (104.000 people): 51% Drahos

Olomouc (100.000 people): 54% Zeman

---

Zeman did really well in the rural areas bordering Germany (Saxony) and Poland.

Likely final result:

51.4% Zeman

... and a winning margin of 160.000 votes.

99.5% of the votes are now counted.

Turnout: 2/3 of people have voted.

Wow...that would mean I was only .2% off in my prediction

Anyway, it’s a shame Drahoš couldn’t pull it off in the end

A) Congrats :)

B) Yeah. Drahos really underperformed in the medium-sized cities relative to Van der Bellen.

Thanks :)

Yeah, it seemed like Drahoš wouldn’t be able to counter Zeman in Czechia. It’s a relatively socially conservative nation, correct?

Almost all Eastern Europe is wary about immigration to at least some extent. Not neccessary as in Hungary, but still wary. And almost all Eastern Europe liked (and frequently - likes) their populists of some sort. So, not so surprising... Think about lot of people here as American WWC workers, who gave victory to Trump (who, btw, is also anti-immigration and prone to populist statements)

  Zeman did really well in Northern Moravia, any reasons for this?

Here is a clickable map:

http://widget.ctk.cz/stat/prezvolby18k2/iframe.php

Kraje = region

Okresy = district

Obce = precinct/town

The correlation map is also pretty cool.

The map of results by district for 2013's 1st round and 2018's 2nd round are almost identical.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Czech_presidential_election_2018_(2nd_round).svg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Czech_presidential_election_2013_(1st_round).svg

Megameow, those maps are intresting.  Whats striking is that its not just the Prague region, but the whole long snake cutting across central Bohemia going against Zeman.  This must include some fairly rural areas that you'd think Zeman should be winning.

I'm happy Zeman won.

If an EU referendum is called, would it pass or be defeated, or a tossup?

  Also, in the Prague region Drahos seems to have done well throughout the area. I would have thought there would be some more working class areas that Zeman would have taken, but it doesn't look like he won a single Prague district.

It would go down heavily.

This article has one of the most ridiculous headlines I’ve read. (https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/27/czech-republic-far-right-president-reelected)

I don’t know how 1) being euroskeptic and 2) opposing immigration automatically makes someone “far-right” according to some. It’s like that article from the New Zealand election describing Winston Peters/the new government as being “far-right”. Has anyone actually looked to the fact that Zeman’s policies are otherwise center-left?

That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t survive his presidency.

  MB, yes that is the problem with current politics and labels.  If Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia, or Harry Reid (the 1990's immigration restrictionist version) or Ben Nelson of Nebraska or other such Democrat immigration restrictionists were still active today they too might be labeled far right, as ones stance on immigration now seems to define ones entire political image and perception.

NZ government is very right-wing on immigration/social issues due to their reliance on Peters.

Zeman's pretty much the same thing plus also a literal Russian stooge.

Sorry, very right-wing?

I accept that aiming to stop being the country with the highest rate of net immigration per capita in the world might seem a little bit illiberal to people who don't know anything about NZ, but "very right-wing" is a line peddled by people who have read the first three paragraphs of Winston Peters' Wikipedia page and rushed off a quick thinkpiece to fill copy.

In the realm of immigration and social issues, the Sixth Labour Government is creating a mechanism for Pacific Islanders to request climate refugee status, creating schemes to recruit skilled migrants from overseas, integrating the Maori language into schooling, increasing paid parental leave, increasing Winter Fuel Payments, starting to fund pensions again after a nine-year gap, fighting child poverty, setting up a historic child abuse inquiry, increasing the minimum wage, reducing benefit sanctions, eliminating the public sector pay gap and giving police officers discretion over when to hand out speeding fines.

Always a pleasure to correct misapprehensions.

On Zeman, though, he is as you say a Russian stooge.

Zeman is former leader of the social democrats and the Nothern Moravia is the biggest stronghold of the left (beside the Nothern Bohenmia) in the Czech Republic.
There are two main reasons: 1. this the former industrial stronghold with miner and steeler tradition and 2. big parts of Nothern Moravia (exactly Nothern Moravia and Czech Part of Silesia) were teritories with German majoroty before 1945. All these former Sudetenland teritories are the most left and the most protest regions of the Czech Republic  in all elections.

There are some rural areas but this is the region where was before the 1945 the Czech population, it means no significant German minority.  This is the main cleavage in the Czech elections, even before Moravia vs. Bohemia plus Prague

But the Germans are long gone. Is this a difference between "colonized land" (people coming from all over the country, no common cultural roots, established civil society etc.) and old established communities?

Exatly this is the case. Still you can see this internal  "border" in every elections. In the colonized areas is the different structure in society - higher unemployment, more criminality, lower education......