Talk Elections

Bihar RJD Lalu Yadav who is out on bail from his conviction from the infamous Fodder Scam of the 1980s-1990s was  convicted for another count as part of the Fodder Scam and may end up in jail again soon.  Most likely this will not dent the RJD vote base since the RJD will make this a Forwards vs Backwards issue since Lalu Yadav's predecessor Upper Caste INC CM Jagannath Mishra was also charged as part of the Fodder Scam but was not convinced. 

What the RJD was focus on is making sure that in 2019 INC leads an anti-BJP national alliance where RJD-INC will fight as a bloc.  RJD's plan is then to rope in the Left Front as various JD(U) rebel parties (like HAM or RLSP as well as Shard Yadav's anti-BJP JD(U) faction.)

First state up for elections is Karnataka which is the last large state ruled by INC.

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Karnataka which used to be called Mysore was created from several states to created a Kannada speaking state

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Politically Karnataka is the only Southern state where the BJP has a large presence.  It also, since 1977, has been the anti-bellwether where it mostly swings in the opposite direction as the rest of India.  

Karnataka has been called Caste-nataka.  Karnataka and UP are the two states where caste politics are the most dominate in political clivage.  

The caste breakdown which is not well known since any attempt to calculate this is politically explosive is roughly

Vokkaliga - 16% (is considered OBC)
Lingayats - 23%
Muslims - 15%
Kurubas - 8%  (is considered OBC)
Dalits - 15%
Tribals - 3%
Other OBC - 12%
Brahmins/Upper castes - 5%
Christian - 3%

Karnataka used to be dominated politically by the Upper Caste elites but since the 1970s has been dominated by the rivalries between the two mega-castes Vokkaliga and Lingayats.  In theory Lingayats is not a caste but really a sub-religion which is part of Shaivism but within  Karnataka they have become a de facto caste.

In coastal Karnataka where Muslims are more numerous it tends to be a Hindu vs Mulsim conflict.  In Northern Karnataka Lingayats tend to more numerous while in Southern Karnataka Vokkaliga tend to be more numerous.
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The evolution of the of Karnataka party system are

pre-1977        1 party domination system (INC) 
1977-1991      2 party system (INC vs JNP/JD)
1991-1999      3 party system (INC vs JD vs BJP)
1999-present  2.5 party system (INC vs BJP vs weaker JD(S))

Karnataka tends to go in the opposite direction of India as a whole and Rajasthan tends to be very elastic.  So even if INC were to win in both it does not necessary mean a INC revival across India.  A defeat in both would indicate a BJP landslide in 2019.  A better signal of INC comeback would be MP which would be the second BJP state.  If INC were to be able to pretty much pull of a tie like Gujarat later this year then it would indicate that in 2019 the INC would be competitive although still at a disadvantage relative BJP. 

Karnataka/Mysore has been dominated by the INC since its creation as a one party state.  The INC leadership has been dominated by the landowning Upper caste which dominated local politics at the township and village level.  

After INC split at the national level in 1969 into INC and INC(O).  The CM of Karnataka at the time was Veerendra Patil which like his mentor and former CM of Karnataka Nijalingappa side with the anti-Indira Gandhi INC(O). 
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After INC landslide victory in 1971 LS elections most of INC(O) went with INC in Karnataka and in the 1972 Assembly elections INC won in a landslide victory and Indira Gandhi appointed Devaraj Urs as the new CM.
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Urs saw that with INC(O) split off and joining forces with the opposition the old politics dominated by the Upper Castes will not be enough to ensure INC domination.  He worked to activate two mega- castes Vokkaliga and Lingayats into the INC system.  In the meantime all the opposition parties (BJS (proto-BJP), SWA and various Socialists) merged with INC(O) to form JNP to take on the INC in the 1977 general elections.  The INC as soundly defeated in Northern India but in Karnataka INC beat back the JNP thanks to the broadening of the INC base by Urs.

Karnataka 1977 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC             28              26                 56.80%

INC rebels                      0                   1.08%

JNP             28               2                  39.89%

CPI               3               0                   0.40%
 
RPI               2               0                   0.33%  (Dalit based party)

With the defeat of INC in Northern India Karnataka and AP were the only states left that leaned INC after 1977 and these two states became to core of the Indira Gandhi/INC comeback.

India Today TN poll has with Rajinikanth party has
 
                   seats     vote share
DMK-INC      130           34%
AIADMK         68           26%
Rajinikanth     33           16%

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If the vote shares are accurate I do not buy the seat distribution.  Rajinikanth's support tends to cut across regions and TN tends to have a fairly uniform swing.  Rajinikanth is unlikely to win more than 10 seats with just 16% of the vote and a DMK-INC vote share gap with AIADMK of 8% tend to indicate something like

                   seats     vote share
DMK-INC      170           34%
AIADMK         50           26%
Rajinikanth     10           16%

After the INC defeat in the 1977 LS election, INC which sent into opposition nationally but fully in control in Karnataka split into pro- and anti- Indira Gandhi factions.  The pro-Indira Gandhi faction created INC(I) with Karnataka CM Urs siding with Indira Gandhi and leader of INC(I) in Karnataka.  The 1978 Karnataka assembly election became a battle of not just INC vs JNP but which is the real INC.  With Urs mass base in Karnataka, INC(I) defeated Veerendra Patil led JNP and drove the anti-Indira Gandhi INC into a weak third place and showing that INC(I) is the "true" INC.

Karnataka 1978 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC(I)+       224            155             46.21% (CPI and RPI were part of INC+)

INC(I) rebel                      3              1.16%

JNP+           224             60             38.38%

JNP rebel                         4               1.79%

INC             215              2                8.29%

CPM             10               0                0.50%

The INC(I) victory established INC(I) is THE INC and established Karnataka as the base for Indira Gandhi's national comeback.  As a result of this defeat Veerendra Patil  was eased aside as leader of JNP and Deve Gowda who is a mass Vokkaliga leader brought in as JNP leader.  Gowda was a member of INC and went with the anti-Indira GandhiINC(O) in 1969 when INC split.  He then went on to join JNP when INC(O) merged into JNP.
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A crisis at the national level in mid 1979 led to a split of the national JNP into JNP and JNP(S) and trigged a LS election in early 1980.  By 1979 Urs's relationship with Indira Gandhi broke down due to Indira Gandhi was clearly pushing Sanjay Gandhi's position with INC(I).  As a result Urs split from INC(I) and joined up with the anti-Indira Gandhi's INC.  The resulting party was called INC(U).
 Most of INC(I) MLAs in Karnataka went over to INC(U) and Urs continued as CM.  Gundu Rao lead a bloc of INC(I) MLAs that stayed loyal to Indira Gandhi.

In the meantime Veerendra Patil who felt sidelined by Gowda taking over JNP in Karnataka defected to INC(I).  INC(U) and JNP(S) formed an alliance at the national level but failed to do so in Karnataka.  At the national level INC(I) came back to power winning back Northern India.  In Karnataka INC(U) was expected to sweep the polls given Urs mass base but in the end the Indira Gandhi wave swept INC(I) to victory as well with the anti-Indira Gandhi vote split between INC(U) JNP and JNP(S).

Karnataka 1980 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC(I)        28               27                 56.25%

JNP            28                1                  22.93%

INC(U)+     28                0                  16.94%  (CPI was part of INC(U)+)

JNP(S)       12                0                   1.22%

CPM            1                0                   0.22%

1980 was a restoration election for Indira Gandhi whose INC(I) became officially THE INC.   After the LS election INC(U) MLAs in Karnataka all defected to INC(I) (now just INC) and Urs resigned as CM paving way for INC's Gundu Rao to take over a CM.
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(Bloomberg) --
India to hold assembly elections for Tripura on Feb. 18, Chief Election Commissioner A. K. Joti said at a press conference in New Delhi.

Elections in Meghalaya, Nagaland to take place on Feb. 27
Counting of ballots in all three states to be held on March 3

After the 1980 elections where Indira Gandhi's INC is fully back in control at the center as well as Karnataka things began to go wrong for INC.  The main problem is CM Gundu Rao main claim to fame is that he is close to Indira Gandhi's son Sanjay Gandhi who die in a plane accident right after the 1980 elections.  Gundu Rao lacked a mass base and trying to replicate what Urs did by mobilizing the Vokkaliga and Lingayats, he tried to mobilize the lower castes as his mass base.  This generated resentment from both the Vokkaliga and Lingayats which represented crisis for INC and opportunity for the opposition.

On the opposition side INC(U) fell apart while on the JNP side, the original BJS faction of JNP split back out as BJP but lacked a real base in Karnataka.  As the 1983 assembly election approached two key players emerged to play a big role in this election as well as Karnataka politics over the next two decades. 

Ramakrishna Hegde who was with INC and then joined INC(O) and along with it became a key leader of JNP was a Brahmin but was very close to Lingayats. 
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Sarekoppa Bangarappa who was a champion of backward castes started in the PSP before defecting to INC becoming a sidekick of Urs following him into INC(I), INC(U) and then back to INC.  He had hoped to supplant Gundu Rao as CM but not given a chance by INC high command, broke with INC, formed KKR with his new rebel party running on the JNP symbol.
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The 1983 JNP effort was a joint effort of Deve Gowda who represented the Vokkaliga, Ramakrishna Hegde who represented Lingayats and Sarekoppa Bangarappa who represented the backwards.  The result was a surprising win by the JNP.

Karnataka 1983 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         224              83                40.78%   (AIADMK was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         6                 3.00%

JNP+         219             106               37.96%   (CPM and CPI were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                       11                 4.64%

BJP+         115               18                 8.21%

LKD            26                 0                 0.53%  (LKD is really JNP(S) renamed)

The JNP victory was made possible local level tactical voting between JNP+ and BJP.  With JNP+ winning more seats than INC+ but not a majority, JNP formed the government with BJP support from the outside.  After much negotiations Ramakrishna Hegde was made the compromise CM.

The JNP victory was short lived as in 1984 Indira Gandhi was assassinated leading to an early 1984 LS election where the Rajiv Gandhi led INC won a massive national landslide on a sympathy wave.  Of course as before Karnataka swung in the opposite direction as the rest of India.  While INC won in Karnataka LS elections the result was a swing away from INC from 1980 whereas in the rest of India the swing was toward INC.  The result was still a large INC victory despite an JNP-BJP-CPI alliance.

Karnataka 1984 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28               24               51.63%

INC rebel                        0                 0.44%

JNP+         28                 4               40.60%  (BJP and CPI were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                        0                 1.36%

LKD            7                  0                0.49%

CPM            1                  0                0.10%

After the INC landslide victory the legitimacy of the  Ramakrishna Hegde JNP goverment was called into question.  Ramakrishna Hegde decided to take the gamble that 1984 was an one off sympathy wave for INC and that JNP could win a snap assembly election to renew his mandate.  In the meantime Sarekoppa Bangarappa was was in the JNP government but disappointing that was not made CM defected back to INC and played a leading role in the INC campaign.  The result was a smashing victory for JNP mostly as the BJP vote base shifted over to JNP to defeat INC.

Karnataka 1985 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         224              66               41.06%

INC rebel                        2                 2.11%

JNP+         222            147               46.32%  (CPI and CPM were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                       7                  2.05%

BJP+         117               2                  3.92%

LKD            32               0                  0.37%

INC vote base stayed intact relative to 1983 but JNP+ now won an absolute majority on the shift of the BJP vote over to JNP.  Ramakrishna Hegde being from an upper caste background also made it easier to capture the BJP upper caste vote and continued as CM of Karnataka.

C-Voter Karnataka poll has a hung assembly with a slight edge for INC

               Seats         Vote share
INC           102             36.6%
BJP            96              35.9%
JD(S)         25              18.8%

A poll at this stage tends to overestimate the ruling party so this seems to imply a small BJP majority.

After Ramakrishna Hegde lead JNP to victory in 1985, things became to fall apart for JNP. First Ramakrishna Hegde got embroiled in various corruption scandals.  Also the battle between Lingayats (led by Ramakrishna Hegde) and Vokkaliga(Deve Gowda) flared up.  Things to the point by 1988 that Ramakrishna Hegde resigned as the political heat got too high even as he retained de facto control of the government.  At the national level the INC national government also got in trouble with its own corruption scandals as VP Singh's JM split out from INC and then merged with JNP and LKD to form JD to take on INC in 1989 LS elections.   Deve Gowda who was itching for a fight with Ramakrishna Hegde announced that he rejected the merged and took his followers to continue on with JNP while Ramakrishna Hegde faction became the Karnataka JD.  Then then INC central government claimed that  Deve Gowda's defection meant that the JD government lost its majority and dissolved the Karnataka assembly paving the way for a joint 1989 LS and assembly election in 1989.

The rise of Hindu-Muslim tensions in Northern India gave BJP hope that it could make gains and BJP formed an alliance with a new farmer based KRRS.  The old INC(O) CM Veerendra Patil who defected back to INC in the late 1970s and Sarekoppa Bangarappa fought to lead INC.  INC high command picked  Veerendra Patil who led the INC to a smashing victory in both the LS and assembly election given the 3 way split of the anti-INC vote (between JD JNP and BJP.)  

Karnataka 1989 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC             28              27                48.90%

INC rebel                        0                  0.91%

JD+            28                1                29.50%  (RPI was part of JD+)

JNP+          27                0                10.89%

CPI              1                0                  0.77%

BJP+          16                0                  6.00%  (KRRS was part of BJP+)


Karnataka 1989 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         224              180             44.22%  (AIADMK was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         7                2.54%

JD+           218               24              27.85%  (RPI was part of JD+)

JD rebel                           3               1.49%

CPI+           25                0                1.13%  (CPM was part of CPI+)

JNP           217                2               11.34%

BJP+         223                6                7.72%  (KRRS was part of BJP+)

KCVP            1                1                0.20%

There was tactical alliance in some seats between JD+ and CPI+ but to no avail.  JD did prove it self as the main opponent of INC over  Deve Gowda's JNP.  One again Karnataka swung in a different direction as the rest of India as INC was soundly defeated in Northern India by a series of tactical JD BJP and Left Front alliances.  VP Singh JD came into power at the center with outside support by BJP and Left Front.  In Karnataka Veerendra Patil was made the CM.   So just like after 1977 INC is out of power at the center but is now strong in Karnataka as a base of operations for INC's comeback.

In MP civic elections the INC and BJP mostly tied.  This is bad news for BJP since BJP tends to be strong in urban areas and INC rural areas.   This seems to imply anti-incumbancy trends in MP and that INC has a shot at closing the gap in assembly elections in late 2018.

After the 1989 return of INC to power in Karnataka things tarted to fall apart for the new CM Veerendra Patil.  Since Veerendra Patil was more aligned Lingayats that provoked instant rebellions from Vokkaliga and backward sections of INC.  Sarekoppa Bangarappa who lead the backwards in INC activity sought to undermine Patil.  At the national level the new JD minority government ran afoul the BJP who in turn pushed up Hindu-Muslim conflict which also rocked and Karnataka.  By 1990 Veerendra Patil was removed as CM and Sarekoppa Bangarappa installed as CM as part of INC infighting which weakened the INC in Karnataka. 

In the JD camp defeat in 1989 lead to a truce between the Ramakrishna Hegde(JD) and Deve Gowda(JNP) who agreed to join forces to try to take on INC.  In the meantime the Hindu-Muslim conflict over Ayodhya polarized the Karnataka electorate and led to a surge in support for the BJP.  So when the 1991 midterm LS elections where called INC was under pressure from both JD and BJP.  Overall while nationally there was was a swing toward INC due to Rajiv Gandhi assassination, INC lost ground due to the BJP surge as well as the truce in the JD civil war which again had Karnataka swing in a different direction then the nationwide trends.  Overall INC won the election but the BJP surge shows that the BJP was now a third leg in a 3 party system.

Karnataka 1991 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28               23                42.13%

JD+           28                 1                22.34% (JNP CPI CPM were part of JD+)

BJP            28                 4                29.28%

KRRS         10                0                   3.18%

BJP broke its alliance with KRRS but still did well due to the Hindu-Muslim conflict.  After the election Deve Gowda's JNP merged into JD.  At the national level INC which won a near majority formed the goverment at the center. 

Sarekoppa Bangarappa's rule did not last too long before more backstabbing and infighting took place and in 1992 Sarekoppa Bangarappa was removed as CM and replaced by Veerappa Moily.  There rapid shifts in leadership eroded and wiped out all INC credibility of running a steady ship.  Not accepting the lost of power Sarekoppa Bangarappa broke with INC and formed KCP ahead of the 1994 assembly elections which was a total wipe-out for INC due to the KCP split that ate into its backward vote.

Karnataka 1994 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         224              36                27.54%

INC rebel                        6                  2.82%

KCP+        220              11                  7.60% ( Muslim based INL was part of KCP+)

JD+          223            116                 33.86%

JD rebel                         9                   2.60%

BJP+         223             40                 16.99%

KRRS          89              1                    2.36%

BSP            77              1                    0.78%

CPM+         21              1                    0.72%  (CPI was part of CPM+)

AIADMK       4               1                   0.24%

KVP           42               1                   0.18%

BRP            2               1                    0.13%

A united JD with both the Ramakrishna Hegde and Deve Gowda factions working together won JD a massive victory over a divided INC and a BJP whose Hindu consolidation tide has receded since 1991.  Deve Gowda took over as CM and initially it seems that the previous Ramakrishna Hegde-Deve Gowda conflicts that rocked the post-1985 JNP government  was under control.  As a result JD entered the 1996 LS elections mostly still as a united entity and won the LS election in Karnataka over a still divided INC.


Karnataka 1996 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28                5                 30.29%

KCP+         12                1                  4.00%

JD+           28              16                 35.29%

BJP            28               6                  24.85%

CPI              1               0                    0.38%

SP               1               0                    0.68%

The 1996 election was a swing against INC and in favor of BJP nationally but with JD losing some ground.   Once again Karnataka went against the national trend to some extent with BJP losing ground since 1991 in terms vote share (but gaining seats) and JD making very large gains when nationally JD lost ground. 

The national election threw up a hung house and in the end the JD led national front was installed as a minority government with outside support from INC and Left Front to lock out BJP.  The consensus PM candidate was  Karnataka  CM Deve Gowda who left for Delhi to become CM and he left his chief lieutenant J. H. Patel as the JD CM of  Karnataka.

SHS which has been a de facto opposition party to BJP within the ruling NDA government announced that for the 2019 Maharashtra LS and Assembly elections SHS will run separately and not have an alliance with the BJP.   Of course at the same time SHS does not seems to pull out of the BJP led government both at the center nor at the Maharashtra level which drew ridicule from other opposition parties.

The BJP does not seem to take this seriously.  A BJP leader compared the SHS to an upset wife who keeps threatening her husband that she would go back to her parental home.

After JD came to power at the center in 1996 with Karnataka  JD CM Deve Gowda becoming PM things started to fall apart for JD.  With  Deve Gowda sidekick J. H. Patel taking over as CM, Ramakrishna Hegde fell that he was not getting his due at power and the Deve Gowda-Ramakrishna Hegde  Vokkaliga -Lingayats alliance started to far apart.  Ramakrishna Hegde pretty much split the JD caucus and acting independently from CM J. H. Patel.  By early 1997 Ramakrishna Hegde bolted from JD and created LS.

Later in 1997 Deve Gowda  was forced to leave the PM office due to opposition and pressure from INC which was supporting the JD government at the center from the outside.  Deve Gowda's return to  Karnataka politics increased Deve Gowda-Ramakrishna Hegde conflict even as Deve Gowda was separately fighting against his old sidekick CM J. H. Patel to regain his old influence.  

On the INC front, the decline of KCP in the 1996 LS elections has led Sarekoppa Bangarappa to merge KCP back into INC.  But within a year where Sarekoppa Bangarappa who was expecting to play a leading role if not take over the Karnataka INC bolted from INC again and formed another splinter KVP when INC instead when with S. M. Krishna, who was a Vokkaliga, as its leader.  S. M. Krishna was in PSP in the 1960s but joined up with INC under Indira Gandhi when INC(O) split out from INC and has been near the apex of INC leadership since the 1980s.

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At the national level, INC withdrew support from JD and as a result the 1998 LS elections were called.  Ramakrishna Hegde saw that his LS was not winning over enough of JD support and for political survival allied his LS with BJP as a junior partner.   The result of the LS election in  Karnataka was a victory by BJP-LS.

Karnataka 1998 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28                9                 36.22%

KVP            19                0                  1.76%

JD              28                3                 21.69%

BJP+          28              16                 38.44%  (LS was part of BJP+)

BSP             6                0                   0.56%

For once Karnataka swung in a similar was as the rest of India with BJP making gains and JD with losses.  The LS defection cost JD dearly as Ramakrishna Hegde was able to move some of his Lingayats base over to vote BJP.  Sarekoppa Bangarappa's KVP totally bombed and he once again had to merge his KVP back into INC again.  At the national level BJP lead alliance came into power with backing from regional parties like TDP and AIADMK.

By 1999 AIADMK pulled support from BJP provoking a 1999 LS election which was held at the same time as the  Karnataka assembly election.  JD at the national split down the middle between pro- and anti- BJP sections.  The pro-BJP faction became JD(U) and joined the BJP lead NDA while the anti-BJP faction became JD(S). Given the Ramakrishna Hegde's LS alliance with BJP Deve Gowda naturally took the anti-BJP position and became the head of JD(S).  Karnataka CM J. H. Patel who was battling with Deve Gowda for control of JD naturally went with JD(U).  J. H. Patel then worked with  Ramakrishna Hegde to merge LS into JD(U).  For the 1999 elections JD(U) managed to from an alliance with BJP for the LS elections (as a junior partner as the JD civil wars pretty much crushed JD(U) support) but had only a partial alliance for the assembly elections.  The result was a united INC sweep as the anti-incumbency sentiment against JD got transferred to its ally BJP.

Karnataka 1999 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC           28                 18              45.41%

JD(S)        28                  0               11.07%

BJP+         28                10               39.62%   (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

BSP           6                   0                0.65%

The BJP-JD(U) alliance which managed to keep the Lingayats vote in the BJP+ camp managed to control the scale of the INC victory.  Sarekoppa Bangarappa who was not given a leading role in the assembly elections so he does not become a problem for S. M. Krishna was elected as a MP.  Again Karnataka went againist the national tide where the BJP made gains and returned to power while INC lost ground despite an increase in vote share.

Karnataka 1999 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+          224            133              41.16%  (AIADMK was part of INC+)

INC rebel                       10               2.60%

JD(S)+      207              11              10.81%

BJP+         156              45              21.44%

BJP rebel                        0                0.33%

JD(U)+      133             24               16.47%

JD(U) rebel                    1                1.35%

BSP           85                0                0.94%

KRRS          9                0                0.40%

Here the failure for BJP and JD(U) to have more than a tactical alliance in some of the seats lead to a much larger victory.  S. M. Krishna lead the INC to a large victory and was installed as CM.

ABP News- Lokniti- CSDS ‘Mood of the Nation Survey 2018

BJP falls relative to 2017 and INC rise relative to 2017
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Regional breakdown.  NDA strong in North and West
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NDA is BJP, SHS (Maharashtra), SAD (Punjab), TDP (AP and Telangana), LJP (Bihar), JD(U) (Bihar), BPP (Assam), SWP(Maharashtra), RSP(Maharashtra), RPI(A)(Maharashtra), AD(UP), HAM(Bihar), RLSP(Bihar), AJSU(Jharkhand), AGP(Assam)

UPA is INC, RJD (Bihar and Jharkhand), NCP(Maharashtra), DMK(TN), MKK(TN), PT(TN), JMM(Jharkhand), IMUL(TN and Kerela), RSP(Kerela), BVA(Maharashtra).  [Note, I think they are missing KEC(M) in Kerala)

NDA is stronger relative to 2014 in terms of allies since JD(U) and AGP is now part of NDA as opposed to 2014.  But it is likely SHS might not be part of NDA in 2019.  UPA might be underestimated since between now and 2019 AITC in WB, YSCP in AP, and SP in UP might become allies of INC if not join UPA.

Voting intention in WB

              2017        2018
INC           9             11
BJP          29             23
AITC        37             42
Left          19             20
Others       6               4


Voting intention in Maharashtra

              2017        2018
INC           18            24
NCP           13           15
BJP           38            31
SHS          16            19
Others       15           11

If INC-NCP alliance continues while SHS breaks it alliance with BJP then BJP might be in trouble.


Voting intention in Gujarat

              2017        2018
INC           30            35
BJP           61             54
Others        9             11

In 2017 assembly elections INC fought BJP to 43-50 so this poll might be underestimating BJP or more likely with Modi running BJP over-performs given  the favorite son effect.


Voting intention in Karnataka for 2018 assembly elections

INC      49
BJP      27
JD(S)   20

Most likely overestimates INC but if this poll is true then INC on route to a victory.

After the 1999 elections the BJP led NDA alliance was re-elected at the center while INC took power in Karnataka led by new CM S. M. Krishna.  Unlike the chaotic 1989-1994 INC and 1994-1999 JD regime, S. M. Krishna did seem to bring some stability to the ruling regime.  

JD(U) did badly in the 1999 elections and with J. H. Patel retiring and Ramakrishna Hegde influence on the decline JD(U)'s profile quickly shrank, losing a good part of its vote base to BJP.   Ramakrishna Hegde made one last attempt at a comeback by forming AIPJD with some former key leaders within JD(U) and JD(S) in 2002 but it was clear that it was not going to be a significant force.

On the BJP side one conclusion of the 1999 elections was that not having a face of the party prevented it from overtaking INC as the dominate political force in Karnataka.  As a result they invited in building up the profile of B. S. Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat, who also moving up in ability for mass appeal.  
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On the negative side BJP experienced a split in Karnataka with KNP being created as a BJP splinter.

On the JD(S) side there was a real danger that in the next election JD(S) will become marginalized as the third place party behind INC and BJP.  Deve Gowda concluded that he mush also push new political faces of JD(S) to expand its appeal as part of the next generation of leaders. For this he turned to his son H. D. Kumaraswamy
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and Siddaramaiah who was a Kurubas but with a long career in JNP and then JD and had mass appeal but especially with Kurubas.
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As the 2004 LS and Karnataka approached there was a sense that the NDA should win re-election at the federal level and with the steady government S. M. Krishna has provided that INC should win re-election.  As a result the BJP pushed up the 2004 LS elections up by a few months and INC did the same for Karnataka.  The result was a shock at the LS level with the UPA defeating the NDA even while the NDA did well in Karnataka.  In the Karnataka assembly elections the INC retained the core INC vote but was pushed to second place by BJP+ in a hung assembly.  Ramakrishna Hegde passed away a few months before the election which further hurt AIPJD's results.  Sarekoppa Bangarappa in the meantime, seeing that he has no shot at leading the INC, quit INC and joined BJP.

Karnataka 2004 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28                8                 36.82%

INC rebel                       0                   0.44%

JD(S)         28                2                 20.45%

AIPJD          6                0                   0.63%

BJP+          28              18                 36.64%   (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

KNP           19                0                   1.39%

BSP             9                0                   1.22%

INC managed to keep its core vote base but lost ground to JD(S) relative to 1999.   As a result BJP+ managed to win significantly more seats than INC with a similar vote share.  Sarekoppa Bangarappa won running on the BJP ticket.  In keeping with previous trends Karnataka swung in opposition directions than the rest of India where INC surged leading to the defeat of NDA.


Karnataka 2004 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC          224                65               35.27%

INC rebel                         5                1.86%
 
JD(S)+    224                 59              21.16%

JD(S) rebel                      1                0.36%

AIPJD      165                  0                2.01%

BJP+       223                85               30.52% (JD(U) and AIADMK were part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        3                0.86%

JD(U) rebel                     3                1.13%

KNP        188                  1                1.32%

KCVP         5                   1                0.15%

RPI            3                  1                 0.10%

BSP        102                  0                 1.74%

The assembly election threw up a hung assembly which was a surprise as the INC was expected to be returned to power.  Just like the LS elections the JD(S) surge seems to have eaten into the INC vote and allowed the BJP+ to win the most seats over INC.   After many rounds of talks between INC and JD(S) INC's Dharam Singh was installed as CM as a compromise candidate with Siddaramaiah as his JD(S) DCM.

There have been talk that Modi might move forward the LS election from May 2019 to Oct-Nov 2018 to coincide with MP,Rajasthan,and Chhattisgarh assembly elections.  The main logic seems to get the LS election out of the way before the opposition can gain any momentum.  There is a chance that INC might end up doing well in the MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh assembly elections and Modi does not want to risk that momentum helping INC in 2019.  Of course all depends on how BJP and INC does in the Karnataka assembly elections in April-May.

This possibility is driving a lot of political activity in various states where the political players are realizing they might have 6 months less than they thought they had to make their moves. 

In Maharashtra SHS is making an assumption that if the LS election is in Oct-Nov then the Maharashtra assembly elections due in 2019 might get moved forward as well.    SHS has, based on that, pre-announced that it will run alone in the next LS and Maharashtra assembly elections as a way of putting pressure on the BJP for concessions. 

In AP and Telengana it seems that TDP and BJP might end up breaking up if their brinkmanship ends badly.  BJP seems to want to expand in AP which it could not being an ally of TDP.  In Telengana TDP as the party opposed to Telengana being created is going nowhere and the BJP-TDP alliance does not seem to be in a position to defeat TRS.   BJP seems to be toying with breaking with TDP in both AP and Telengana and forming an alliance with YSRCP in AP.  TDP seems to be sensing this and are already making moves to strike first.  If BJP does not do well in  Karnataka then TDP might break off ties with BJP and form an alliance with JSP in AP.  INC is in a tough position in both AP and Telengana since it was counting on an alliance with YSRCP to make it a relevant force again (YSRCP pretty much took over all of AP INC back in 2014). But if it becomes BJP=YSRCP vs TDP-JSP then the INC will be out in the cold as there are almost zero chance that ancient rivals TDP and INC could come together.  Same in Telengana where if BJP can remove the stigma of a TDP alliance the state could be come a TRS vs BJP state with INC in third position. 

In Bihar my predictions that BJP-JD(U) alliance will face trouble once LS seats have to be allocated is coming true.  In 2014 out of the 40 seats it was BJP winning 22 LJP 6 RLSP 3 and JD(U) 2.  Now HAM is part of the NDA in Bihar in addition to JD(U).  Historically the BJP-JD(U) split in Bihar in terms of seats contested has been JD(U) 25 BJP 15.  JD(U) is looking for a similar split  but there is no way BJP can go for that since that would be giving away incumbent seats that the BJP LJP and RLSP currently holds.  HAM and RLSP are already unhappy with JD(U) being part of the NDA in Bihar while LJP seems to get along well with JD(U).  LS elections will bring seat allocation problems to the fore.  Most likely HAM and RLSP will defect to RJD-INC while there will still be a blow up between BJP and JD(U) over seat allocation.  There is even a chance that JD(U) will break off from NDA and run separately just like in 2014.

Seems to be a lot of action in Nagaland: 11 political parties called for a delay of the Feb. 27 elections including NPF, BJP, and INC to complete the peace process.. Nagaland BJP didn't seem to get BJP central leadership in Delhi's approval and BJP now wants the election to go ahead.. Then 10 NPF MLAs resign maybe joining a newly formed party.
http://www.news18.com/news/politics/10-npf-mlas-resign-from-party-assembly-in-poll-bound-nagaland-1646129.html

Neiphiu Rio seems to be allied with  BJP so lots of manovuering.

Yeah, the Nagaland situation is moving quickly and is a total mess.  The core issue is that there is an insurgency movement (various NSCN factions) which is dedicated to create an independent Greater Nagaland (Nagalim)

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The insurgency are in talks with the Central government which is now down to a potential enlargement of Nagaland state with more autonomous powers.    Like other Northeast insurgencies the local regional parties are often one and the same as the insurgency.  Like 1984, the insurgency is not meant to succeed as independence is impossible, it is meant to add pressure on the Indian federal government  to dump subsidies to the regional parties.

To add pressure on the federal government all Nagaland parties (including national parties like INC and BJP) seems to have agreed to not contest  the upcoming assembly elections  arguing that they can only take place once a peace agreement is in place with the insurgents.  The central BJP decided to punish its Nagaland branch for this which flip flopped on that decision.

Last few election cycles BJP ally NPF have dominated Nagaland politics with the INC as the main opposition.  There were talks for NPF and BJP to contest as allies in the upcoming election.  In the end NPF decide against this and broke ties with the BJP.  Former Nagaland NPF CM and now Nagaland NPF MP Neiphiu Rio then joined a NPF splinter NDPP (which he helped to set up ahead of time to cater for this possibility) with his followers.  

So IF there will be an election it will be NPF vs NDPP-BJP vs INC.  NPP which is a pro-BJP Northeast NCP splinter and BJP ally is also looking to contest.  For now it seems BJP will contest by itself as even BJP ally NDPP is, for now, boycotting the election. 

Several by-election vote count is this morning.

In Rajasthan we have 2 LS by-elections (Alwar and Ajmer) and 1 assembly by-election (Mandalgarh.)  BJP held a 3 seats.

2014 Alwar LS
BJP       60.5%
INC       33.7%

2014 Ajmer LS
BJP       55.2%
INC       40.3%

2013 Mandalgarh assembly
BJP      51.6%
INC      40.1%

In WB we have 1 LS by-election (Uluberia) and 1 assembly by-election(Noapara.)  AITC held Uluberia and INC held Noapara.

2014 Uluberia LS
AITC    48.1%
CPM     31.2%
BJP      11.6%
INC       5.7%

2016 Noapara assembly
INC      42.8%
AITC    42.2%
BJP      12.7%


So far the INC are ahead in Alwar, Ajmer, and Mandalgarh and AITC are ahead in Uluberia and Noapara.  If kept up then it is a big blow for BJP in Rajasthan especially when the trend in Rajasthan are that by-elections are won by the ruling party.

I wrote a while ago a template for defection news



Now we have

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ahead-of-karnataka-polls-former-bjp-minister-joins-congress-5046364/

Ahead of Karnataka polls, former BJP minister joins Congress


Which fits my template pretty well.

INC wins all 3 Rajasthan by-elections in Alwar, Ajmer, and Mandalgarh.  The INC victory in Mandalgarh assembly seat is especially impressive because there is an INC rebel in the fray but the INC candidate managed to get a narrow win over BJP.

AITC wins both WB by-election in Uluberia and Noapara by landslides.  In both it is AITC then BJP and then CPM but far behind and then INC 4th.  If so then there will be pressure for AITC-INC alliance to stop the BJP surge in 2019 in WB.

Uluberia results vs 2014 swing show a large swing toward AITC and BJP and away from CPM and INC.  Of course last few years BJP tends to do well in WB by-elections only to do a lot worse in the general election.
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If you take the two Rajasthan LS by-election and look at the swing relative to 2014 and then apply that swing to the 2013 assembly elections you get INC 140 seats BJP 53 seats.  This does imply that there will be a swing toward INC in the assembly elections later this year and that INC has a shot at winning a majority.

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Mandalgarh assembly results

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INC          39.5%
BJP           32.2%
INC rebel  22.8%

The INC rebel is aligned with rising INC leader Sachin Pilot (close to Rahul Gandhi) who is a rival to 2 time INC CM of Rajasthan Ashok Gehlot.  The INC candidate that got nominated was aligned with Ashok Gehlot so with the INC vote split there did not seem to be much of a chance for INC.  But it tuned out that the swing against BJP was so large that the INC candidate won anyway despite the INC rebel. 

The INC high command will have to make a decision soon on who to project as CM in Rajasthan.  Most likely it will be  Sachin Pilot.

The good news for the BJP is that its defeat in Rajasthan by-elections was overshadowed in the news cycle with the announcement of the annual federal budget.    The budget is clearly an election year populist budget with increases of farm subsidies, free cooking oil and free healthcare for the poor.  In theory healthcare are already suppose to be free but due to lack of supply in reality the poor does not get any healthcare.

After the 2004 elections an UPA government took over at the federal level while INC-JD(S) took over at the Karnataka level.  Soon tensions broke out in JD(S) over its strategy relative to INC.  Siddaramaiah who was DCM was leading the pro-INC faction while Deve Gowda's son Kumaraswamy led the anti-INC faction with de facto support from Deve Gowda. 

In 2005 things came to ahead with Siddaramaiah breaking with Deve Gowda and leaving JD(S).  After some time he joined INC.  This eventually led to a crisis between INC and JD(S) in early 2006 with Kumaraswamy leading a "rebellion" within JD(S) and took JD(S) out of its alliance with INC.  Kumaraswamy then formed a BJP-JD(S) alliance.  Deve Gowda blessed this implicitly by taking no action to stop his son but did not endorse his son's action due to the fact that he still had national aspirations and needed to project an anti-BJP image.  In the meantime party hopper Bangarappa quit BJP in 2005 and ran for his old seat on the SP ticket which he won.

The BJP-JD(S) deal had a CM rotation system where Kumaraswamy will be CM with Yeddyurappa as DCM for a year and a half followed by a swap.  When the time was up for Kumaraswamy to yield to Yeddyurappa in late 2007 BJP-JD(S) conflict flared up.  After Yeddyurappa took over for a week Kumaraswamy claimed that Yeddyurappa policies violated the BJP-JD(S) agreement and pulled out of the alliance leaving the BJP without a majority.  This paved the way for 2008 mid-term elections.

BJP which by now pretty much took over all of the JD(U) vote base pretty much cast aside JD(U) which by now has no mass leader and has become an irrelevant force.  BJP splinter KNP has since merged into JD(S) but it seems all things equal the voters blamed JD(S) for this crisis which lost a bit of ground to BJP which led BJP to win a small majority while INC kept its vote base.

Karnataka 2008 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC           222               80                34.76%

INC rebel                         3                 1.24%

JD(S)+      220               28               19.05%

JD(S) rebel                      1                 0.33%

BJP           224            110                33.86%

BJP rebel      2                0                  0.99%

BSP          217               0                   2.74%

SP            121               0                   0.93%

SKP           21               0                    0.40%

CPM+        19               0                    0.35%  (CPI was part of CPM+)

JD(U)        72               0                    0.33%

Overall BJP won despite having a smaller vote share than INC mostly based on a small but relevent swing from JD(S) to BJP.  Bangarappa who is now the leader of SP in Karnataka actually ran against Yeddyurappa with de facto INC and JD(S) support was beaten badly.  With a small BJP majority Yeddyurappa now formed the government.

When the 2009 LS elections came around a year later the JD(S) decline continued as the battle nationally was seen as a INC vs BJP battle.  The BJP seems to have benefited more from the JD(S) decline and improved on its position relative to 2004.

Karnataka 2009 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28               6                 37.65%

JD(S)+       23               3                 13.75% (CPM and CPI were part of JD(S)+)

BJP            28             19                  41.63%

BSP           28              0                   1.66%

Nationally there was a swing toward INC from BJP and as usual Karnataka swung in the opposite direction.    Bangarappa actually rejoined INC by this election and ran on the INC ticket losing to Yeddyurappa's son who ran on the BJP ticket.

So the new Modi/BJP budget has a plan to create "Modicare" which will cover low income 100 million families (around 500 million people).  Each family will pay a premium of around $17 a year and have coverage that goes up to around $7800 which is actually a lot given the low cost of healthcare.  I think this is only meant to cover serious aliments so in many ways works more like a catastrophic health insurance plan in the USA.   The federal budget allocates in 2017-2018 around $3 per family to be covered which obviously not enough but I guess this money is to get started and once this gets going they will allocate more funds next year (after the 2019 elections of course.)

The long term plan seems to be federal funding of around $11 per family covered and the each state cover the rest so this has aspects of Medicare to it expect for Modi being much more stingy than Obama.  Of course this plan does not really address how to increase supply of healthcare since even with insurance coverage a lot of times Indians cannot find anyone to provide healthcare where they live.

Much has been made in media about the BJP strong performance in WB by-elections pushing CPM to third place.  That might very well be the place by the BJP has a track record of overperforming in WB by-election only to drop down to a lower level of support once the general election comes.  We can look at the 3 assembly by-elections in 2014 and 2015 in between the 2014 LS election and the 2016 WB assembly election.  We can look at how BJP did in that assembly segment in 2014 LS election, the by-election and then the 2016 assembly election.

Basirhat Dakshin
2014 LS
AITC      79.7K   41.4%
BJP        54.1K   28.1%
AIFB      49.0K   25.5%  (CPM ally)
INC         4.5K     2.4%

2014 assembly by-election
BJP        71.0K    37.4%
AITC      69.4K    36.6%
CPM       24.8K    13.1%
INC        22.0K    11.6%

2016 assembly election
AITC       88.1K    41.0%
BJP        64.0K    29.8%
INC        57.0K    26.6% (supported by CPM)


Chowrangee
2014 LS
INC        36.0K    31.7%
AITC       34.4K    30.3%
BJP         29.5K    26.0%
CPM        10.8K     9.5%

2014 by-election
AITC       38.3K    39.7%
BJP         24.0K    24.8%
INC         23.3K    24.1%
CPM         8.9K      9.2%

2016 assembly
AITC       55.1K    48.2%
INC        41.9K     36.6%  (backed by CPM)
BJP        15.7K     13.7%


Krishnaganj
2014 LS election
AITC      97.8K     49.0%
CPM       61.0K     30.6%
BJP        29.0K     14.5%
INC         6.8K       3.4%

2015 by-election
AITC     95.5K      48.7%
BJP       58.4K      29.8%
CPM      37.6K      19.2%
INC        4.8K        2.5%

2016 assembly
AITC   111.6K      54.2%
CPM      70.7K      33.4%
BJP        17.6K       8.4%
INC         4.2K       2.0%

It seems the BJP by-election vote is mostly made up of the BJP voe plus pro-CPM anti-AITC voters that want to stick it to AITC but go back to CPM in any general election.

It seems that BJP will form an alliance with NDPP (NPF splinter party), breaking the BJP alliance with NPF, and contest the Nagaland assembly elections.  Main issue is that they might be the only parties running since every other party are boycotting the election.  The seat share for now will be BJP 20 NDPP 40 which the local BJP is against as unjust. 

In Nagaland it seems to be total chaos.  It seems now that BJP, INC, NPF and NDPP will all contest polls despite the boycott that they all agreed to.  The national BJP worked out an alliance with NPF splinter NDPP where the seat sharing will be NDPP 40 BJP 20.  The Nagaland BJP seems to reject this deal and are still in talks with NPF for an alliance.  It seems it will go nowhere since NPF is only willing to give BJP 2 or maybe up to 5 seats.  So the election will be a 3 way battle of NPF vs INC vs (BJP-NDPP).  Of course while these parties have released names of candidates, none of them have registered for fear that the first candidates to register will become targets of the  NSCN insurgency that has called for a boycott of these elections until the peace process is complete.

What is also problematic about the "peace process" was that the Central government-NSCN accord of 2015 has many provisions which are secrete which leads to many in Nagaland concerned about a "sellout" and many neighboring states fearing Modi sold them down the river by ceding their territory to a enlarged autonomous Nagaland in the future.

With a day left, starting with the BJP, candidates are going ahead with registrations for Nagaland assembly elections.  So far no sign of violence yet from the  NSCN militants.   With BJP in an alliance with NPF splinter NDPP, there are also talks that there might be tactical alliance between INC and NPF in response in seats where one party is clearly stronger than the other.

In Rajasthan, the BJP is in panic mode over the disastrous by-election results from a few days ago. There are talk of replacing 2 time BJP CM Vasundhara Raje

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But it is an issue of TINA as BJP has no one else that can take her place to lead the BJP.

One fun fact about Vasundhara Raje.  She is the aunt of the INC CM candidate Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia for MP which will vote at the same time as Rajastahan later in 2018. 

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The Scindia royal family historically has been associated with INC in the early 1950s and then BJS/BJP starting in the 1960s.  Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia's father Madhavrao Scindia bolted from his family in the 1980s to join INC.  His son is now the leader of the INC in MP and will be its CM candidate even as his aunt will be the BJP CM candidate for Rajasthan.

After the 2009 LS elections, the Karnataka BJP regime started to show cracks.  First a bunch of corruption scandals hit CM Yeddyurappa.  As a result pressured mounted within the BJP for Yeddyurappa to resign as the Karnataka BJP fractured between pro- and anti- Yeddyurappa factions.  In the meantime a bloc within the BJP tied to a force led by "The Reddy Brothers" also became an independent force.  The Reddy brothers the money men behind the BJP and active in Karnataka BJP to protect their mining interests.  The Reddy brothers are also active in AP politics but back the INC there to protect their businesses in AP.  Eventually in 2011 Yeddyurappa was forced to reign by the BJP.  Without the protection of being CM Yeddyurappa was arrested in late 2011 but was soon released. The anti-Yeddyurappa faction that took over also had a falling out with the Reddy brothers.  As a result Yeddyurappa left the BJP and formed a BJP splinter KJP while the Reddy brothers split from the BJP and formed BSRCP.

In the meantime Bangarappa had left INC again and joined JD(S) but pass away in late 2011 ending his long career as a party hopper.

As the 2013 Karnataka assembly election approached and the BJP split into 3 pieces it was clear that INC had the advantage.  There were several INC claimants to the CM candidate role and INC high command decided on a compromise candidate of Siddaramaiah who had defected from JD(S) a few years earlier.  The 2013 Karnataka assembly election result was a solid victory for the INC.

Karnataka 2013 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC           224              122             36.59%

INC rebel                          4              1.83%

JD(S)        222                40             20.19%

JS(S) rebel                       0               0.59%

BJP+        224                40             20.02%

BJP rebel                         5               1.74%

KJP          204                  6              9.79%

BSRCP     176                  4              2.69%

SKP            6                  1               0.35%

SP            27                  1               0.34%

KMP           7                  1               0.18%

BSP        175                 0                0.91%

There were signs of some BJP-JD(S) tactical voting to reduce the size of the INC victory as INC got less seats than the vote share victory margin would imply.  With the INC victory Siddaramaiah became CM.   In the aftermath of the 2013 assembly elections and with Modi taking over the BJP at the center, Yeddyurappa worked toward rejoining BJP by merging KJP into it. given the fact that Yeddyurappa is fairly close to Modi.  Most supporters of BSRCP also mostly went back to BJP.

As the 2014 LS election approached, it was clear that BJP led by Modi was going to win and the only question was the size of the NDA victory.  In   Karnataka there was an expectation that INC will do well given its strong performance in the 2013 assembly elections.  The result was that INC did get gains but the BJP under the Modi wave captured a good part of the JD(S) vote as well as other non-INC voter minimize the swing from 2009 toward INC and win a majority of the seats.

Karnataka 2014 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC            28                9                41.15%

JD(S)         26                2                11.16%  (SDPI was part of JD(S))

BJP            28              17                43.37%

BSP           28                0                 0.86%

AAP           28                0                 0.83%

Once again Karnataka went against the national trend.  INC saw a large swing against it from 2009 at the national level losing power to BJP but in   Karnataka while the Modi wave did carry BJP to victory the INC made gains in terms of vote share and seats versus BJP from 2009.   Of course both gained at the expense of JD(S) who was marginalized. 

With Siddaramaiah at the helm, S. M. Krishna hopes of becoming CM again had be dashed.  In 2017 S. M. Krishna defected to BJP boosting BJP chances with the Vokkaliga vote.

In Karnataka it seems JD(S) formed an alliance with BSP where the 224 seats will be shared 204 for JD(S) and 20 for BSP.   JS(S) kingpin Deve Gowda arranged for this alliance to try to avoid being marginalized in an election that seems to be set up as a INC vs BJP battle.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/the-political-economy-of-a-nagaland-election/story-WjKnp0QmedGsF7gtK1qV0I.html

"The political economy of a Nagaland election"


Which would put the cost of a Nagaland election for an MLA spot around $1.2 million. 


So the cost a vote would be around $40


Which would work out to around $40-$60 a vote.


The entire Nagaland political economy revolves around federal subsidies in which the insurgency plays a big part in helping the political elite to extract extra money by increasing violence when needed.

Tripura News X- Jan Ki Baat opinion poll has BJP-IPFT now ahead of CPM+ with INC totally collapsing.

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                Seats
BJP-IPFT      34
CPM+          26
INC               0

It seems the entire anti-Left Front vote has consolidated behind BJP-IPFT

Correct.  Tripura is 70% Bengali and 30% Tribal.  CPM+, given its strength in WB, has always attracted the Bengali vote with INC getting a small fraction of the Bengali vote but with tribal IPFT will get the Christian Tribal vote.  In 2013 it was

Tripura 2013 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share           

CPM+         60               50             52.4%  (CPI RSP AIFB were part of CPM+)

INC+          60               10             44.1%  (IPFT were part of INC+)

BJP            50                 0               1.5%

CPM+ has dominated Tripura since 1977 with the exception of the 1988 assembly election where INC+ won in a very narrow victory even while losing the popular vote

Tripura 1988 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share           

CPM+         60               28             48.9%  (CPI RSP AIFB were part of CPM+)

INC+          60               32             47.8%  (TUJS which is proto-IPFT were part of INC+)

This time around AITC will be running and is eating into the CPM+ and INC Bengali vote share.  But BJP was able to appeal to Bengalis on the basis of Hindu consolidation and make itself the main anti-CPM party.  As a result IPFT joined up with the BJP bring with it the tribal vote and now will give CPM+ the biggest challenge since 1988.

It seems that given recent reverses in Gujarat and Rajasthan, the BJP is in a bit of a panic in Maharashtra with the prospect of SHS leaving NDA in 2019 AND INC-NCP alliance holding up.   There seems to be talks between NCP and SHS for tactical alliances in 2019 LS and Maharashtra assembly elections where it might turn into everyone ganging up on BJP that has the BJP leadership alarmed.

The panic seems to be translating into the BJP trying to lure back SHS with an offer to share the Maharashtra assembly election seats 50/50.  I suspect this is not good enough as SHS now might think it has BJP on the run.  SHS will most likely demand a seat share allocation similar to pre-2014 norms before the Modi wave and the installation of the BJP CM.   Another SHS demand which BJP might have to accept would be sidelining of Narayan Rane (ex-SHS CM of  Maharashtra.)   Narayan Rane who was  SHS CM Maharashtra in the late 1990s since broke with SHS and defected to INC in 2005 in hopes that INC will make him CM again.  He then recently defected from INC to BJP which only served to anger SHS that BJP took him in.  Main problem with BJP doing this is the recently growth of BJP in Maharashtra is buttressed by various local barons signing up with BJP.  Pushing  Narayan Rane  aside to please SHS might serve to deter other defections and give other recent defectors on where they standing in their new party. 

Tripura's IPFT main demand is the creation of a separate Tribal state craved out of Tripura which is quite alarming to the Bengali majority.  The BJP-IPFT surge is based on its appeal as the main anti-CPM bloc.  On the other hand if it seems BJP-IPFT might win, then there might be a counter-consolidation of Bengali voters that would have voted for AITC and INC toward CPM+.

BJP and IPFT are sharing the 60 seats BJP 51 IPFT 9.  All 9 IPFT candidates it seems have serious criminal cases against them (murder, attempted murder etc etc) which I suspect is due to the lawless nature of backward tribal areas.

INC's position in Nagaland seems pretty weak as the election is turning mostly into a NPF vs NDPP-BJP fight.  NDPP is running against "15 years of NPF misrule."   Main problem with that is pretty much all NDPP members were senior members of NPF until just few months ago.  Also NDPP leader Neiphiu Rio was the CM of Nagaland for 11 out of the 15 years that NPF was in charge of Nagaland so when NDPP talks about "15 years of NPF misrule" they are really just talking about themselves.

There is a movement in Nagaland to push back on vote buying.
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It is mostly going nowhere as the real election campaign are the battle in the vote buying market.  The cost of a viable campaign is over $1 million per seat.  INC is only now running 18 seats out of 60 mostly due to lack of funds.  NPF and its splinter NDPP both have resources due to their tenure in office.  The BJP has resources from its status as the national ruling party.  It seems NPF will form an alliance with BJP Northeast ally NPP as well as JD(U) mostly to pull resources.  After the election it could very well be that NPF and BJP will reform their alliance if NDPP-BJP fail for capture a majority.

In Karnataka it seems JD(S) who has formed an alliance with BSP and given it 20 seats has also roped in NCP who will most likely contest 5-7 seats.  JD(S) could potentially do fairly well in the assembly election.

The trend in Karnataka so far is if an incumbent regime had a change in CM since being elected (1983, 1989, 1994, 1999, and 2013) then the ruling party is soundly defeated with an opposition party winning a majority.  If the incumbent regime manages to keep the same CM the entire 5 year term then it is usually a fractured mandate (2004.)  INC managed to keep the same CM the last 5 years so we could be seeing a fractured mandate with no party having a majority.   In such a case JD(S) will come in third but will hold the balance of power.

Tripura vote over.  Turnout around 76% but most likely will go up over time as more votes come in.  This is a large drop in turnout from 2008 and 2013 when turnout where in the 92%-93% range.  If so then CPM might be in trouble.  The lower turnout is more likely to be part of the decline of the CPM turnout machine.  What CPM has to hope for now is the anti-Left vote is split between BJP-IPFT and INC.

In Nagaland both INC and BJP have in their manifestos government paid for pilgrimage tour packages to Jerusalem.  The logic is simple.  Decade ago INC, in order to ensure that it gets the Muslim vote, came up with government paid Haj pilgrims to Mecca.  Then both the INC and BJP came up with similar schemes for Hindu pilgrimages to various temples to "make sure no religion is being given preferential treatment."   Now the same logic comes to Christian Nagaland where now there are promises for the government to pay for pilgrimage tour packages to Jerusalem.

In the end, once all the vote casts are accounted for (but not counted), the Tripura turnout was around 92% which is pretty much the same as 2008 and 2013.   Is so then I suspect the chances of CPM coming out ahead seems stronger.  Of course the BJP can also hope for a total consolidation of the anti-Left vote around BJP-IPFT.

Pre-election surveys in Tripura 3 TV channels are

Anti-CPM Vanguard News have it as

BJP-IPFT       33
CPM              27
INC               0
()

Anti-CPM Headlines Tripura (Tripura News X- Jan Ki Baat)

BJP-IPFT      34
CPM+          26
INC               0
()


Pro-CPM Aakash Tripura has it at

BJP-IPFT      23
CPM+          37
INC               0

It seems that all of them agree that INC will go to zero and that the CPM+ performance of 50 out of 60 seats in 2013 will not be repeated.

Given the higher turnout my gut feeling is that CPM+ still pull this out.  Something like

                  Vote
                 Share         Seats           
BJP-IPFT      39%          25
CPM+          44%          35
INC             15%            0

In Meghalaya 20 of 60 MLA since they were elected in 2013 had switched sides making a farce of the Anti-Defection law.
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https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/agartala/tripura-woman-votes-against-cpm-in-laws-kill-her/articleshow/63052150.cms

Tripura woman votes 'against CPM', in-laws kill her

Voting in Meghalaya and Nagaland done. Exit polls out for these two states and Tripura out.  

Overall it mostly favorable to BJP and allies and negative for INC.  If the BJP is lucky it will end up ruling all 3 states.  BJP threw in a lot of resources in these 3 states to win and it seems that it will get its wish.


Tripura

It seems if the exit polls are believed the BJP-IPFT might cruise to victory.  An amazing accomplishment for the BJP to go from 1.5% in 2013 to winning the election.

JanKiBaat-NewsX
BJP-IPFT     40      51%
Left front:   19      39%

AxisMyIndia
BJP-IPFT:   47      45.5%
Left front:  12      40%
Others:       1

CVoter
CPM:         30     44.3%
BJP+:        28     42.8%
INC:           1       7.2%




Meghalaya

NPP and BJP are allies at the national level but ran separately.  Most likely NPP-BJP will form a post-election alliance and form the government.   UDP-HSPDP are also part of NDA at the national level but also choose to run separately.   But the trend seems clear.  INC is out and some combination of BJP and its allies will form the government.

JanKiBaat-NewsX
NPP:      25           39%
INC:      15           21%
BJP:       10           12%
Others:    4

CVoter
NPP:               20     29.4%
INC:               16     36.5%
UDP-HSPDP:   10       8.8%
BJP:                 6     16.6%
Others:            7

AxisMyIndia
NPP:               14
INC:               20
BJP                  5
Others            20


Nagaland

If NDPP-BJP cannot form a majority then most likely BJP will ditch NDPP and form the government with NPF.

JanKiBaat-NewsX
NDPP-BJP:    30      48%
NPF:            23      42%
INC:              1       4.4%
Others:          6

CVoter
NDPP-BJP:    28      38.4%
NPF:             22      27.1%
INC        :       2      19.7% (I am calling BS on this vote share, INC only contested 18 out of 60 seats)
Others:           8      14.8%

()

MP by-election in Kolaras  and Mungaoli as well as Odisha's Bijepur result coming out now.

In 2013 MP it was

Kolaras
INC    46.5%
BJP    30.8%
BSP    15.0%

Mungaoli
INC    51.2%
BJP    36.2%
BSP     8.8%

In 2014 Odisha it was

Bijepur
INC           32.4%
BJD           32.1%
BJP           18.2%
BJD rebel   11.1%  (running in by-election as the BJP candidate)

Usually the ruling government tends to win by-elections as voters would want a MLA that could get them more pork so we would expect the BJP to win Kolaras and Mungaoli or at least get a significant swing and BJD to win Bijepur.



So far the early vote has INC ahead in Kolaras and Mungaoli  and BJD ahead in Bijepur.

BJD wins Bijepur in a landslide as the INC vote seems have tactically gone to BJD to stop BJP

()

INC marginally ahead in both  Kolaras  and Mungaoli and most likely will hold the lead in both seats.

INC ahead in Kolaras by around 5% and ahead in  Mungaoli  by around 2%.

Final result for  Bijepur was

BJD           57.1%
BJP            33.8%
INC             5.7%

There seems to be some internal INC civil war with led to sabotage by from INC factions to work to defeat the INC candidate.  Also it was clear that the race would become a BJD vs BJP battle which made it easier for tactical voting by INC voters.

vs 2014

INC           32.4%
BJD           32.1%
BJP           18.2%
BJD rebel   11.1%  (running in by-election as the BJP candidate)

In MP by-election INC wins both seats, one by a narrow margin.

Kolaras
INC    48.4%
BJP    43.6%

In 2013 it was
INC    46.5%
BJP    30.8%
BSP    15.0%


Mungaoli
INC    49.7%
BJP    48.2%

In 2013 it was
INC    51.2%
BJP    36.2%
BSP     8.8%


In seems there was a swing from INC to BJP but the expectations was that the BJP would make gains or even win given the trend of voting for the ruling party in by-elections.   It seems the BSP vote came in to save INC.  Of course BSP will run its own candidate in the general assembly elections later this year.  Still these results show that BJP last lost ground since 2013 although not enough to lose in 2018.

These by-elections are also an victory of rising INC leader Jyotiraditya Scindia
()

Who is the nephew of BJP CM of Rajasthan Vasundhara Raje.  Most likely Jyotiraditya Scindia will be the de facto leader of INC in the upcoming MP assembly election and will become CM if INC were to win.

Right now I would rate the chances of INC winning in Rajstahan at 75/25, BJP winning in MP at 65/35 and most likely 50/50 in Chhattisgarh between INC and BJP.  INC was for several cycles within striking distance of BJP in Chhattisgarh and 2018 will for the first time give the INC a chance to run against the BJP in Chhattisgarh where both the state and central government is BJP so INC could capture the anti-incumbency vote. 

Some political churning in Bihar which are aftershocks of the JD(U) defection to NDA back in Aug 2017. 

The pro-JD(U) faction of INC lead by former INC Bihar leader Ashok Choudhary has joined JD(U) taking 4 MLC (which is the majority of the INC delegation in the Bihar Upper House) with him.

Jitan Ram Manjhi who was former JD(U) CM but then broke with Nitish Kumar back in 2015 forming HAM and joining the NDA has now defected from NDA to join up with RJD-INC.  Jitan Ram Manjhi has always been close to Lalu Yadav (he has spent time in INC RJD and then JD(U) before forming JD(U) splinter HAM) so with Nitish Kumar coming over to the BJP camp in 2017 HAM joining up with RJD-INC was a matter of time.

Most likely JD(U) splinter RLSP lead by Upendra Kushwaha who also had been Nitish Kumar's protege but broke with JD(U) back in 2013 and now allied with BJP will also follow suit soon now that JD(U) is in the BJP camp.   

Counting started, mostly postal

BJP-IPFT off to a good start in Tripura

Tripura (11 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT       5                +5
Left              5                 -2
INC              1                 -3
Others          0                 --

Meghalaya (1 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC              1                 --
NPP              0                --
BJP              0                 --
Others          0                --

Nagaland (1 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    1                 +1
NPF-NPP      0                 -1
INC             0                 --
Others         0                 --

Counting started, mostly postal

Tripura (16 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT       6                +6
Left              9                 -3
INC              1                 -3
Others          0                 --

Meghalaya (3 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC              2                 --
NPP              1                +1
BJP              0                 --
Others          0                -1

Nagaland (2 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP     2                 +2
NPF-NPP       0                 -2
INC              0                 --
Others         0                  --

Counting started, mostly postal

BJP and allies doing pretty well so far


Tripura (35 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     19              +19
Left            15               -12
INC              0                -8
Others          1               +1

Meghalaya (21 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC              5                 -3
NPP              6                +5
BJP              2                +2
Others          8                -4  (UDP-HSPDP 7 out of 8 )

Nagaland (7 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP     6                 +6
NPF-NPP       1                 -2
INC              0                 -3
Others         0                  -1

Counting started, mostly postal and some real leads

BJP and allies doing pretty well so far.  Tripura neck to neck.  NDPP-BJP sweeping Nagaland


Tripura (44 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     20              +20
Left            23               -12
INC              0                -9
Others          1               +1

Meghalaya (27 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC              8                 -4
NPP              7                +6
BJP              3                +3
Others          9                -4  (UDP-HSPDP 8 out of 9 )

Nagaland (9 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP     9                 +9
NPF-NPP       0                 -4
INC              0                 -3
Others         0                  -2

Counting started, mostly postal and some real leads

BJP and allies doing pretty well so far.  Tripura neck to neck.  NDPP-BJP sweeping Nagaland


Tripura (53 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     24              +24
Left            26               -18
INC              2                -7
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (36 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            11                 -5
NPP            11                +9
BJP              1                +1
Others        12                -6  (UDP-HSPDP 10 out of 12 )

Nagaland (16 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    11              +11
NPF-NPP       5                 -4
INC              0                 -4
Others         0                  -3

Counting started, mostly postal and some real leads

BJP and allies doing pretty well so far.  Tripura neck to neck.  Nagaland now a lot closer


Tripura (54 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     24              +24
Left            28               -17
INC              1                -8
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (39 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            14                 -4
NPP            10                +8
BJP              3                +3
Others        12                -7  (UDP-HSPDP 10 out of 12 )

Nagaland (22 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    13              +13
NPF-NPP       9                 -6
INC              0                 -4
Others         0                  -3

Counting started, mostly postal and some real leads

BJP and allies doing pretty well so far.  Tripura neck to neck.  Nagaland now a lot closer


Tripura (56 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     26              +26
Left            28               -18
INC              1                -9
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (39 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            15                 -3
NPP            10                +8
BJP              3                +3
Others        11                -8  (UDP-HSPDP 9 out of 11)

Nagaland (37 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    24              +23
NPF-NPP     12               -14
INC              0                 -6
Others         1                  -3  (JD(U))

A lot of real leads

Left in front in Tripura. NPF+ pulls ahead in Nagaland.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP.


Tripura (58 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     26              +26
Left            31               -17
INC              0               -10
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (43 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            18                 -2
NPP            11                +9
BJP              3                +3
Others        11               -10  (UDP-HSPDP 9 out of 11)

Nagaland (53 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    22              +21
NPF-NPP      30                -4
INC              0                 -7
Others         1                -10  (JD(U))

A lot of real leads

Left in front in Tripura. NPF+ slightly ahead in Nagaland.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP.


Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     27              +27
Left            31               -18
INC              0               -10
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (53 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            22                 -6
NPP            11                +9
BJP              6                +6
Others        14                -9  (UDP-HSPDP 10 out of 14)

Nagaland (57 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    26              +25
NPF-NPP      29                -7
INC              0                 -8
Others         2                -10  (2 JD(U) which are pro-NPF)

Very early vote share

Tripura  (complete collapse of INC)
BJP-IPFT  48.2%
Left         46.6%
INC          1.4%

Meghalaya (UDP-HSPDP and PDF strong areas votes coming in first)
INC              30.3%
NPP              17.2%
BJP               7.6%
PDF              9.5%
UDP-HSPDP  21.8%

Nagaland
NDPP-BJP     38.0%
NPF-NPP       46.7%  (NPP contesting on some seats that NPF is contesting)
INC               4.4%
JD(U)            5.1%

A lot of real leads

Neck-to-neck in Tripura.  Neck-to-neck in Nagaland.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP.


Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     29              +29
Left            29               -20
INC              0               -10
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (54 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            23                 -5
NPP            12              +10
BJP              5                +5
Others        14               -10  (UDP-HSPDP 10, PDF (NCP splinter) 3)

Nagaland (57 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    24              +23
NPF-NPP      30                -6
INC              1                 -7
Others         2                -10  (2 JD(U) which are pro-NPF)

A lot of real leads

Neck-to-neck in Tripura.  NPF-NPP ahead in Nagaland.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP.


Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
BJP-IPFT     28              +28
Left            30               -19
INC              0               -10
Others          1               +1  (CPM-ML)

Meghalaya (56 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013
INC            21                 -7
NPP            15              +13
BJP              6                +6
Others        14               -10  (UDP-HSPDP 10, PDF (NCP splinter) 3)

Nagaland (59 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013
NDPP-BJP    23              +22
NPF-NPP      33                -4
INC              1                 -7
Others         2                -10  (2 JD(U) which are pro-NPF)

Very early vote share

Tripura  (complete collapse of INC)
BJP-IPFT  48.8%
Left         46.4%
INC          1.8%

Meghalaya (UDP-HSPDP and PDF strong areas votes coming in first)
INC              30.0%
NPP              18.5%
BJP               9.4%
PDF              8.8%
UDP-HSPDP  20.2%

Nagaland
NDPP-BJP     39.8%
NPF-NPP       45.2%  (NPP contesting on some seats that NPF is contesting)
INC               3.1%
JD(U)            3.4%

BJP-IPFT sweeps Tripura.  Neck to neck in Nagaland with NDPP-BJP slightly ahead.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP. 

Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
BJP-IPFT     43              +43                                50.5%
Left            16               -33                                45.0%
INC              0               -10                                  1.8%
Others          0               -- 

Meghalaya (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
INC            23                 -5                                 28.6%
NPP            19              +17                                 20.4%
BJP              2                +2                                   9.9%
UDP-HSPDP  8                -4                                  17.4%
PDF              3               +3                                   8.4%
Others          3               -12  (2 IND, 1 KHNM)

Nagaland (60 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013                  Vote share
NDPP-BJP    31              +30                                39.9%
NPF            26               -12                                 39.1%
NPP              1               +1                                   6.8%
INC              0                 -8                                  2.1%
JD(U)           1                 --                                   4.7%
Others         1                -11  (1 IND)

BJP is now a true pan-India party and one can argue has taken the place of the INC as the natural party of power.

In Nagaland with these current numbers most likely BJP will dump NDPP and support NPF to form a government with is power greatly enhanced as the party that holds the balance of power between NPF and NDPP.

In Meghalaya, unless the INC is willing to give up the CM post to form an alliance with UDP-HSPDP most likely NPP-BJP will form a deal with UDP-HSPDP and PDF to form a government.  Most likely it will be an unstable government.

BJP-IPFT sweeps Tripura.  Neck to neck in Nagaland with NDPP-BJP slightly ahead.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP. 

Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
BJP-IPFT     43              +43                                50.5%
Left            16               -33                                45.0%
INC              0               -10                                  1.8%
Others          0               -- 

Meghalaya (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
INC            21                 -7                                 28.5%
NPP            19              +17                                 20.5%
BJP              2                +2                                   9.7%
UDP-HSPDP  8                -4                                  17.1%
PDF              4               +4                                   8.2%
Others          5               -12  (3 IND [1 of them is an INC rebel], 1 KHNM, 1 NCP)

Nagaland (60 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013                  Vote share
NDPP-BJP    31              +30                                39.9%
NPF            26               -12                                 39.0%
NPP              1               +1                                   7.0%
INC              0                 -8                                  2.1%
JD(U)           1                 --                                   4.7%
Others         1                -11  (1 IND)

Map of BJP and BJP ally ruled states.  It does not color Meghalaya but most likely Meghalaya will have a NPP (BJP ally) CM.

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The reason why BJP and NPP ran separately in Meghalaya is because NPP appeals to Christians and BJP tend to appeal to Hindus.  The INC campaign was based on attacking the BJP as anti-Christian.  An overt alliance would drive Christian votes away from NPP.  It seems that plan worked.

BJP-IPFT sweeps Tripura.  Virtual tie in Nagaland.  Meghalaya will be a 3 way split between INC, NPP-BJP and UDP-HSPDP.  

Counting done in Meghalaya and almost done in the other two states.

Tripura (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
BJP-IPFT     43              +43                                50.5%
Left            16               -33                                44.8%
INC              0               -10                                  1.8%
Others          0               --  

Meghalaya (59 out of 59 with leads) - 1 seat had election delayed due to death of candidate
                Leads       Change 2013                   Vote share
INC            21                 -7                                 28.5%
NPP            19              +17                                 20.6%
BJP              2                +2                                   9.6%
UDP-HSPDP  8                -4                                  16.9%
PDF              4               +4                                   8.2%
Others          5               -12  (3 IND [1 INC rebel, 1 pro-INC], 1 KHNM, 1 NCP)

Nagaland (60 out of 60 with leads)
                Leads       Change 2013                  Vote share
NDPP-BJP    29              +28                                39.9%
NPF            27               -11                                 39.1%
NPP              2               +2                                  7.0%
INC              0                 -8                                  2.1%
JD(U)           1                 --                                   4.4%
Others         1                -11  (1 IND)

In Nagaland, it seems that despite pre-election announcements, JD(U) will back NDPP-BJP.  The lone independent will also back NDPP-BJP.  This means NDPP-BJP plus JD(U) plus independent will have 31 out of 60 seats to form a government.   Still, there will be a chance that NPF might be brought into this in case there is a need to give the government a greater margin of error.

In Meghalaya, it seems that UDP-HSPDP will back NPP-BJP to form a government.  NPP-UDP-HSPDP-BJP will have 29 out of 59 seats.  Roping in PDF or an independent or two should be enough to get to majority.  It also seems NPP-BJP is eager to get PDF into the alliance to make sure the margin of error is large enough and that PDF will be open to joining the this new anti-INC bloc.  If so we will most likely see a NPP CM in Meghalaya.

https://scroll.in/article/870739/the-meghalaya-hung-verdict-explained-in-25-charts-more-volatility-than-overall-results-suggest (https://scroll.in/article/870739/the-meghalaya-hung-verdict-explained-in-25-charts-more-volatility-than-overall-results-suggest) Great work on charts and maps by Scroll.in Interesting patterns of Congress and NPP voting, NPP is very weak around Shillong.

Meghalaya politics over the last 30 years has really be a running INC civil war which expanded to occupy most of the political space.  Historically Meghalaya has been about INC vs various incarnations of UDP and HSPDP (both of which are regional parties.)  

Within INC there has been pro-Gandhi clan and anti-Gandhi clan factions.  The anti-Gandhi clan faction was led by P. A. Sangma who was a Meghalaya CM in the late 1980s and was then a long time MP and becoming Speaker of the LS in 1996-1998 (during a period that the Gandhi clan was not in control of INC.)  After the Sonia Gandhi takeover of INC in 1998 the INC civil war in Meghalaya intensified with P. A. Sangma quitting INC in 1999 to form NCP along with Sharad Pawar of Maharashtra and Tariq Anwar  of Bihar.  Of course even after NCP was formed there were fissures.   When forced to pick between alliance with INC or BJP Sharad Pawar and Tariq Anwar rather go with INC while P. A. Sangma was so opposed to the Gandhi clan he rather ally with BJP.

Over time due to P. A. Sangma NCP anti-INC line in Meghalaya politics NCP slowly expanded into the anti-INC space and weakening the predecessors of  UDP and HSPDP.    In 2012 this conflict within NCP (between pro-INC vs pro-BJP lines) came to a head with P. A. Sangma quitting NCP and forming NPP as a BJP ally which was mainly focused in the Northeast.  NCP went into rapid decline in Meghalaya while NPP expanded due to the P. A. Sangma's influence.  P. A. Sangma passed away in 2016 but is son Conrad Sangma took over the reigns and continue to expand at the expense of UDP and HSPDP and to some extent INC as anti-incumbency weight in on INC.

Now that NPP led post-election alliance has been formed Conrad Sangma will be the new NPP CM of Meghalaya finally winning the INC civil war in Meghalaya (for now) over the pro-Gandhi clan INC.  Of course INC is not finished in Meghalaya.  Now that the new government will be a INC-BJP-UDP-HSPDP-PDF [PDF is a NCP splinter whose split pretty much finished off NCP in Meghalaya] INC will be the main opposition and will capture any anti-incumbent support.  So now Meghalaya politics has become a pro-Gandhi clan INC vs anti-Gandhi clan INC (NPP) battle with other forces being marginalized.  

New Meghalaya CM Conrad Sangma
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In UP there are two upcoming LS by-elections (Phulpur and Gorakhpur).  INC wanted to continue the 2017 alliance with SP. SP instead worked to form a SP-BSP alliance.  Historically BSP never contest by-elections and usually just stays neutral.  This time around BSP has endorsed the SP candidate.  BSP insist that this does no necessary mean that the 1993-1994 SP-BSP alliance is back for the 2019 LS elections but for sure this is a sign that like 1993 SP and BSP might come together to stop BJP. 

At the ground level SP-BSP alliance is hard since SP aspires to be the party of OBCs which is in conflict with Dalit  which BSP aspire to represent at the social level.  But 2014 and 2017 showed that the non-Yadav OBC has went with BJP anyway.  By SP working for BSP alliance it seems to indicate that SP does not think it can win back the non-Yadav OBC vote from BJP anytime soon and the way to stop BJP is to form a Yadav-Muslim-Dalit alliance to counter Upper Caste-Non-Yadav OBC bloc of BJP.

In 2014 LS results were

Phulpur
BJP     52.4%
SP      20.3%
BSP    17.0%
INC      6.1%

Gorakhpur
BJP     51.8%
SP      21.8%
BSP    17.0%
INC      4.4%

Most likely BJP support has fell somewhat since 2014 LS and 2017 assembly election.  So SP-BSP chance of winning would depend on a) True BSP effort to mobilize the BSP to back the OBC based SP and b) tactical voting by INC voters to defeat BJP.

In Nagaland, in the end NPP went with NDPP-BJP.  So it will be NDPP leader and former NPF CM Neiphiu Rio will be the new CM leading an alliance (NDPP-BJP-NPP-JD(U)-Independent) which has 33 out of 60 seats.  NPF will be in the opposition with 27 seats.   I do foresee a large number of NPF->NDPP defections in the future.    If this new ruling alliance sticks together then most likely NPF will form an alliance with a weakened INC for survival.  

New Nagaland CM Neiphiu Rio
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In the end CPM was defeat in Tripura because it gave the INC base no other choice but to join forces with BJP-IPFT.  In many ways the CPM government was quite popular and still fairly popular even as it was voted out.   In that sense my wild guess on the result was not totally wrong from a vote share point of view since I actually got the CPM+ vote share mostly correct.


I expected the BJP victory in 2023 after 2018 has showed up the INC as having no real future in Tripura but still taking a low double digit vote share.  All that took place was the BJP made that hyper-jump in one election cycle instead of two.  CPM totally misplayed its cards.  When it was clear that BJP-IPFT was surging at the expense of INC, the CPM should have tried to from an alliance with INC.  The local CPM actually proposed something like this but was ruled out by CPM high command which was split on this issue.  Seeing no hope in staying in an INC that was bound to lose, what was left of the INC base went completely over to the BJP-IPFT since the CPM+ was not able to accommodate the various local INC faction leaders.   The result was a shocking BJP-IPFT victory.

In AP the TDP took one more step toward a complete break with BJP by pulling out of the NDA government.  TDP will continue to back the NDA government from the outside and for now will stay part of the NDA.  The BJP also has pulled out of the TDP government in AP.

One the surface the conflict the issue of "special status" for AP, where TDP wants all federal funding for development projects to be 90% grants and 10% loans vs 60% grants and 40% loans.  The concept of special status only works for backward states (mostly in the Northeast) and is really not applicable to an advanced state like AP.   By not giving TDP what it wants, for now TDP has pulled out of the NDA government. 

The real issue is TDP head and current AP CM Naidu
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Senses that Modi wave of 2014 has receded and that going into 2019 TDP-BJP would face defeat as votes flow back to YSRCP while the Muslim vote continue to stay away because of the BJP.  TDP breaking with BJP over getting more funds for AP would give TDP the narrative advantage it needs as a champion of AP regional interests (over YRSCP) while also giving it a shot at the Muslim vote.  The main risk is that as 2019 comes around Modi and with it BJP gains traction again and if TDP dumps BJP ahead of time then a YSRCP-BJP alliance could come in and defeat TDP. 

So hedging his beats for now is the best course for Naidu to start the process of breaking with BJP but still holding out for a possible alliance is the way to go.  What Naidu needs to figure out is in AP will 2019 be an pro-incumbent (in which case TDP-BJP is the way to go)  wave or anti-incumbent wave (in which case TDP has to go without BJP.)  INC is now trying to fish in trouble waters by coming out to support TDP on special status for AP.  Even YRSCP to show its regional credentials came out to support TDP as well.

In 2019 AP the party system will have 2 large regional parties (TDP, YRSCP) and two small national parties (BJP, INC.)   Now that INC came out to back TDP it is possible these two ancient rivals of AP could come together in 2019.  In 2019 we can be sure TDP will not be on the same side as YSRCP and BJP will not be on the same side as INC.  But all large-small combination could take place (TDP-BJP vs YSRCP-INC or TDP-INC vs YSRCP-BJP) plus one of the smaller national party running separately.   

https://thewire.in/230558/a-day-before-modis-visit-congress-sweeps-local-body-by-polls-in-rajasthan/ Another good result for INC in Rajasthan. But December is a long way away.

Of the recent political events (Northeast assembly elections, developments in AP with a possible TDP-BJP split, and UP by election with BSP backing of SP) the most consequential would be the UP by-elections.

 In 2014 BJP-AD won 72 out of 80 UP LS seats on a vote share of 43.6%.  In 2017 UP assembly election this was mostly repeated with a BJP-AD vote share of 41.8% and led to a BJP landslide despite an SP-INC alliance.  One would expect some erosion of the BJP-AD-SBSP vote by 2019 and most likely they will come in around mid to high 30s.  If it is still BJP-AD-SBSP vs SP-INC vs BSP then going by 2017 UP assembly results one would expect the BJP-AD-SBSP to win around lows 60s in terms of seats.  But if a SP-BSP alliance can be formed and can work on the ground then the BJP-AD-SBSP could be driven down in the low 30s in terms of seats, a swing of around 30 LS seats.

The UP by election of Phulpur and Gorakhpur would be a good test of this.  Usually by-elections tend to work in favor of the incumbent and the 2014 results

Phulpur
BJP     52.4%
SP      20.3%
BSP    17.0%
INC      6.1%

Gorakhpur
BJP     51.8%
SP      21.8%
BSP    17.0%
INC      4.4%

would indicate that the BJP should win.   But  in 2014 Phulpur and Gorakhpur had very strong BJP candidates which where Keshav Prasad Maurya and Yogi Adityanath which became UP CM and DCM respectively which in turn necessitated the by-election) so BJP punched above its weight in these two LS seats.   If you look at the 2017 assembly segments  of these two seats and add them up you get a true picture of the relative strength of the various parties.  Doing so you get

Phulpur
BJP          35.7%
AD(S)        7.7% (alliance with BJP)
INC            5.4% (alliance with SP)
SP            23.8%
BSP          22.5%

Gorakhpur
BJP           40.4%
BJP rebel     2.8%
INC           10.7% (alliance with SP)
SP            16.7%
BSP           19.4%
NISHAD       5.5%
PECP           0.2% (alliance with NISHAD)
RLD            0.7%

BJP and AD(S) had an alliance and SP and INC had an alliance.  NISHAD is a caste based party that is based on, well, the Nishad caste, which is an OBC caste that is quite numerous in Gorakhpur.   This time around BSP NISHAD PECP RLD are all backing SP while INC which demanded that it get one of the 2 seats as being part of the alliance was rebuffed with SP spending its time trying to get BSP backing which it did.  INC will run its own candidate.  If we use the 2017 results as a calibration where we add up vote share of parties that will back SP and assume that the SP-INC vote share should be split 80%/20% between SP and INC and do the same for AD(S) and the BJP rebel add them to BJP

Phulpur
BJP           43.4%
SP            46.2%
INC            5.8%

Gorakhpur
BJP           43.2%
SP            47.8%
INC            5.5%

These numbers show that if BSP can get its Dalit vote based to vote SP (which historically the Dalits are hostile to) and get some extra anti-BJP tactical voting from the INC then the BJP could be in trouble.  There are reports that this new SP-BSP alliance has BJP worried and this math shows why they are.  Both these seats has BJP+ vote share from 2017 at around 43% which is fairly similar to the BJP+ vote share in 2017 UP assembly elections which makes these two seats then very good test cases.  Meaning if SP-BSP can beat BJP here then the BJP could be beaten across the board in the 2019 LS elections.  In many ways this by-election is a test of if SP-BSP vote base can fuse.  If the BJP is beaten the it shows that the vote bases can fuse then there gives SP and BSP the more reason to go for a grand alliance.

What makes it more complicated for the BJP is that most likely the BJP must have lost ground since 2017 which make the math even worse for the BJP.  In the BJP's favor would be that since these two seats were seats of the now UP CM and DCM the favorite son effect might rub off.  To be this does not seem to me that it will work.  In assembly segments Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi LS seats the INC actually does badly even though the same voters vote by large margins for Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi for LS elections.  

The other positive factor for the BJP is in Phulpur Atique Ahmed who is a Muslim mafia boss is also contesting from jail.  Atique Ahmed was in SP and AD and was actually the SP MP for  Phulpur for 2004-2009.  Atique Ahmed could split off a bunch of the SP Muslim vote based and had victory to BJP.  SP is counting on Muslim vote consolidation to see of this threat.  On the other side of the ledger the INC candiate in Phulpur  is Upper caste and could pull in some Upper Caste vote that otherwise would have gone BJP.    Similar threat for SP exists in Gorakhpur  where the INC candidate is Muslim and most likely put in Muslim vote without being able to dent BJP Upper Caste vote bank.

One way or another the results of this by-poll is critical for how 2019 LS election turns out.

Yeah. Rajasthan is quite elastic and even though INC got crushed in 2013 and 2014 the nature of the state means that the INC could always come back within one election cycle.  I would put the INC chances of winning Rajasthan 2018 assembly elections at 75%.

This weekend will also see 1 LS and 2 assembly by-elections in Bihar.  This will be a test of the new BJP-JD(U) arrangement where if the JD(U) base can swing over to BJP after the 2015 assembly election where JD(U) was part of the anti-BJP bloc.  In all 3 contests it will be BJP-JD(U)-LJP-RLSP vs RJD-INC-HAM. 

The LS by-election is in Araria and will be a BJP vs RJD battle.  The history are

2009 LS
BJP         38.7%  (backed by JD(U)
LJP         35.6%   (backed by RJD)
INC          6.8%

2014 LS
RJD         41.8%  (backed by INC)
BJP         26.8%   (backed by LJP RLSP)
JD(U)      22.7%

2015  assembly (adding up each segment)
BJP         29.2%
BJP rebel   3.9%
LJP           5.3%
HAM         0.4%
RJD        15.2%
JD(U)      24.1%
INC          9.3%
JAP          4.1% (RJD splinter)

which if we consolidate into blocs
BJP+      38.8% (BJP LJP HAM)
GA         48.5% (Grand Alliance - RJD JD(U) INC)
JAP          4.1%

If we take the 2015 results and assume the Grand Alliance vote share are split 40%/40%/20% for RJD/JD(U)/INC and assuming HAM vote share is around 3% we get

BJP        55.2%
RJD       32.1%
JAP         4.1%

Of course that assumes that the JD(U) vote transfers perfectly back to BJP.  And given the fact that JD(U)-BJP are the incumbent party which gives the BJP an added advantage any RJD performance that make the race close would show that the JD(U) vote not not been perfectly transferred.


The assembly by-election are in Jahanabad and Bhabua.  History are

Bhabua
2010 assembly
LJP           26.2%  (backed by RJD)
BJP           25.9%  (backed by JD(U))
BSP          10.2%
INC            7.0%

2014 LS assembly segment
BJP           46.4% (backed by LJP RLSP)
INC           30.8% (backed by RJD)
JD(U)        14.6%
BSP            3.8%

2015 assembly
BJP           34.6% (backed by LJP RLSP HAM)
JD(U)        29.3% (backed by RJD INC)
BSP           20.4%

Here the battle will be BJP vs INC.


Jahanabad
2010  assembly
JD(U)        32.1% (backed by BJP)
RJD           24.4% (backed by LJP)
INC           12.0%

2014 LS assembly segment
RLSP         41.0% (backed by BJP LJP)
RJD           36.9% ( backed by INC)
JD(U)        11.0%

2015 assembly
RJD          50.9% (backed by JD(U) INC)
RLSP        30.7% (backed by BJP LJP HAM)

Here the battle will be JD(U) vs RJD.

Just like the Araria LS by-election, as long as the JD(U) vote share transfers to the ruling bloc then BJP and JD(U) should win.  If the race becomes close then it is a sign that the BJP and JD(U) vote share will have problems fusing.

Turnout for Phulpur and Gorakhpur by-election ended up being 37% and 46%.  It seems the lower turnout has BJP more nervous than SP although the lower turnout could just be as much as the BSP base not coming out which would hurt SP.  I am surprised at how low turnout Phulpur given the SP rebel and Mafia Don Atique Ahmed being in the race which I would imagine would turn up turnout among his Muslim and Dalit supporters. 

In Bihar by-election in  Araria, Bhabua and Jehanabad  ended up with higher turnout which many reads as somewhat negative for JD(U)-BJP as it could be part of anti-incumbency vote given JD(U) has been in power since 2005 even as all things equal the incumbent tends to do better in Indian by-elections. 

Count in progress in UP and Bihar by-elections.  Is is going against BJP.

In UP SP slightly ahead of BJP in both Phulpur LS and Gorakhpur LS

In Bihar Araria LS RJD is ahead of BJP,  in Jahanabad assembly RJD ahead of JD(U) and in Bhabua  assembly BJP ahead of INC.

Not all the vote counts for the more minor candidate are show but my estimate of vote shares so far in the count are

UP Phulpur LS
SP          48%
BJP         42%
SP rebel   6%

UP Gorakhpur LS
SP          50%
BJP         45%

My estimate of the vote count in Bihar so far

Araria LS
RJD  49%
BJP   46%

Bhabua assembly
BJP   54%
INC   41%

Jehanabad assembly
RJD   56%
JD(U) 40%

My estimate vote share

UP Phulpur LS
SP          48%
BJP         41%
SP rebel   7%
INC          2%

UP Gorakhpur LS
SP          50%
BJP         46%
INC           2%

Which represents shock defeats for the BJP given that BJP won over 50% vote share in both LS seats in 2014.  Of course I saw this possibility coming.  I used the 2017 assembly segments and assumed that if BSP and other non-INC opposition parties could transfer their vote then it could become


Which is what mostly took place. The SP rebel got a but more than I expected but I suspect it captured some anti-SP Muslim votes that would have gone INC if the SP rebel did not run.  There was clear INC->SP tactical voting and the Upper Caste INC candidate in Phulpur took some BJP votes like I expected.

One thing this by-election shows is that a possible SP-BSP alliance that centers around Yadav-Muslim-Dalit alliance can work on the ground and poses a threat to BJP in 2019.

In Bihar, Bhabua assembly called for BJP over INC and Jehanabad assembly called for RJD over JD(U).  Having a hard time getting exact vote share.

Not so happy PM Modi and UP CM Yogi Adityanath watching as Yogi Adityanath's old LS seat is being lost to SP due to SP-BSP alliance.
()

My latest estimate of vote share

UP Phulpur LS
SP          48%
BJP         40%
SP rebel   7%
INC          2%

UP Gorakhpur LS
SP          49%
BJP         46%
INC           2%


Bihar Araria LS
RJD  51%
BJP   44%

An argument that the Bihar results is mostly about the sympathy vote
()

It seems that

Bihar Jehanabad assembly is around
RJD   56%
JD(U) 30%

()

Which is a repeat of 2015 results but with JD(U) running instead of RLSP and JD(U) in BJP camp while HAM is in RJD camp as opposed to vice versa.

Not sure where the other 14% went...  A good chunk could have gone CPI(ML)(L)

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/congress-staying-out-of-alliance-may-have-aided-sp-bsp-in-uttar-pradesh-bypolls-1689231.html

Is making a similar argument I was making about role of INC where if INC runs an Upper Caste candidate it is more likely to take votes from BJP and the INC Muslim vote will tactical vote for the larger anti-BJP bloc anyway.



 

My latest estimate of vote share

UP Phulpur LS
SP           48%
BJP          41%
SP rebel   6%
INC          2%

UP Gorakhpur LS
SP          48%
BJP         46%
INC          2%

Bihar Araria LS
RJD        50%
BJP        44%
RJSP        2%  (I think this is a BSP rebel party)

Bihar Bhabua assembly
BJP        54%
INC        41%

Bihar Jahanabad assembly
RJD          56%
JD(U)       30%
CPI(ML)(L)  6%

https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/2018/03/14/gorakhpur-phulpur-araria-lessons-of-2009-for-pm-modi-and-rahul-gandhi


I disagree with this narrative.  The way Indian elections always worked is that various political superstars can break the partisan mode of his or her district to win by outlandish margins.  But that political magic does not rub off on their party.  In many ways the USA Dems had to learn that about how transferable the Obama vote toward other Dem candidates.  Same with USA GOP and the vote for Trump.  The best example is the fact that INC does fairly poorly UP assembly segments that Sonia and Rahul Gandhi wins by landslides. 

So the best mathematical test of CM Yogi Adityanath performance is to use the 2017 UP assembly segment results do a bottom up calculation of the partisan lean of Yogi's LS district of Gorakhpur.  That calculation showed that if BJP held its vote share from 2017 it would win around 43% of the vote.  This by-election the BJP will most likely end up with around 46% and was only defeated due to the SP-BSP alliance.  So this election showed that the CM Yogi Adityanath vote was not transferable but we knew that already.

One lesson of the UP by-elections is that the best way to defeat BJP in UP in 2019 would be a BJP-AD-SBSP vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC battle.  

The lesson of 2017 was that a SP-INC alliance failed to capture Upper Caste votes despite the fact that INC is the second choice of most Upper Caste voters plus Akhilesh Yadav's "New SP" modern image.  In the end the Upper Caste vote still saw the "New SP" and still just sees an OBC party and even the pro-INC Upper Caste voter went with BJP.

This by-election in UP showed that if SP and BSP are willing to compromise to work out an alliance then the Yadav-Muslim-Dalit (plus Nishad in Gorakhpur) vote base can come together despite historical rivalry.   Had INC joined this alliance it would merely drive INC Upper Caste voters over to BJP as well as to trigger an Upper Caste and non-Yadav OBC counter-consolidation in response.  

A situation where it is BJP-AD-SBSP vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC battle would avoid this and INC running Upper Caste candidate across the board would eat into the BJP Upper Caste vote.  In many ways that was what the INC was trying to do in 2014 but failed due to the Modi wave.  In retrospect the SP and INC got their strategies reversed.  In 2014 the Modi wave was so strong that BJP was going to win all the vote they could have received there was no way to beat it back so a SP-INC alliance to save a few seats would have made sense in retrospect.  In 2017 a lot of votes were up in the air so SP and INC running separately could have clawed back from Upper Caste votes from BJP.

All this is clear in retrospect but hard to figure out at the time.  How SP BSP and INC choose to fight BJP in 2019 would make a difference of 30 or even more seats.

Exact UP LS by-election results

Phulpur
SP            47.1%
BJP           39.0%
SP rebel     6.6%
INC            2.7%

Gorakhpur
SP            49.3%
BJP           47.0%
INC            2.0%

My "fair value" vote share based on 2017 assembly segments and the assumption that BSP RLD NISHAD votes would go SP


Overall it is clear that BSP managed mostly  transfer its vote to SP.

BJP under-performed in Phulpur part of which are explained by the INC Upper Caste candidate.  The SP rebel seems to have capture some anti-SP Muslim votes which would have gone INC as well as anti-SP Dalits which would have gone BJP.  Of course the SP rebel got some SP votes as well.

BJP mostly performed par in Gorakhpur.  The INC candidate was a Muslim which means that the INC Upper caste vote mostly gone BJP.  On the other hand there was also INC Muslim tactical voting for SP despite the INC candidate being Muslim to focus on defeating BJP which worked.

The overall narrative of INC impact on election is clear.  Where the INC nominate an Upper Caste candidate it tends to hurt BJP, where it nominates a Muslim candidate it tends to hurt SP.

I'd say that the Phulpur loss isn't particularly surprising, but Gorakhpur is a bit of an embarrassment. O/c insisting that it's much more than a mere embarrassment is probably reaching a little bit...

Bit of trivia for you all: Phulpur was Nehru's constituency from 1952 until his death.

Certainly from the LS election history point of view Phulpur has historically been a marginal seat while BJP has been winning  Gorakhpur since the 1980s.  Going into the by-election I would say SP was more worried about Phulpur due to the SP rebel running in the fray.  Also as I pointed out, the assembly segments results of Gorakhpur and Phulpur from 2017 seems to indicate that both had a small BJP lean relative to UP but no more.  BJP's strong record for Gorakhpur LS election had more to do with two superstar BJP MPs (Yogi and his mentor before him) that punched above BJP's weight.

As for Phulpur, after Nehru passed away, his sister held the seat for INC for a couple of terms.  Then in the 1970s INC's VP Singh who would then from JD in 1988 and then becoming PM in 1989 also was the INC MP there. 

Official results for Bihar by-elections

LS Araria by-election result
RJD      50.0% (backed by INC-HAM-CPI)
BJP      43.9%  (backed by JD(U)-LJP-RLSP)
JAP        2.1%
RJP        1.8%  (BSP splinter)


Back in 2014 it was
RJD      41.8% (backed by INC)
BJP      26.8%  (backed by LJP-RLSP)
JD(U)   22.7%  (backed by CPI)
BSP       1.8%

In 2015 assembly segments RJD rebe JAPl got 4.1%.  So if we assume 2014 JD(U) performance of 22.7% was made up of CPI 1% and what became HAM 3% a "fair value" 2018 result should be

RJD   41.7%
BJP   45.5%
JAP    4.1%

And if we swing 3% from BJP to RJD for sympathy factor (son of old RJD MP who passed away is running for RJP) it should have been

RJD   44.7%
BJP   42.5%
JAP    4.1%

So RJD "should" have won by 2% but won by 6% instead.  So around 2% of the ruling coalition vote was leaked to RJD.  Looking at the assembly election results this amount should have been much higher but given the fact that this district has high Muslim minority density and the RJD candidate is Muslim the leakage to RJD was more limited.




Assembly Bhabua  by-election result
BJP              48.1% (backed by JD(U)-LJP-RLSP)
INC              37.0% (backed by RJD-HAM-CPI)
BJP rebel       2.8%


In 2014 LS assembly segment it was
BJP        46.4% (backed by LJP-RLSP)
INC        30.8% (backed by RJD)
JD(U)     14.6% (backed by CPI)
BSP         3.8%

So if we assume 2014 JD(U) performance of 14.6% was made up of CPI 1% and what became HAM 2% a "fair value" 2018 result should be

BJP        58.0%
INC        33.8%

And if we swing 3% from INC to BJP for sympathy factor (wife of old BJP MLA who passed away is running for BJP) it should have been

BJP        61.0%
INC        30.8%

So BJP "should" have won by 30% but won by 14% (taking BJP rebel into account).  So 8% of the ruling coalition vote has leaked to INC.




Assembly Jahanabad by-election result
RJD              55.5%  (backed by INC-HAM-CPI)
JD(U)           29.9%  (backed by BJP-LJP-RLSP)
CPI(ML)(L)     6.2%


Back in 2014  LS assembly segment it was
RLSP          41.0% (backed by BJP-LJP)
RJD            36.9% (backed by INC)
JD(U)         11.0%  (backed by CPI)
CPI(ML)(L)   3.5%
BSP             1.3%

So if we assume 2014 JD(U) performance of 11.0% was made up of CPI 1% and what became HAM 2% a "fair value" 2018 result should be

RJD            39.9%
JD(U)         49.0%
CPI(ML)(L)   3.5%

And if we swing 3% from JD(U) to RJD for sympathy factor (son of old RJD MLA who passed away is running for RJD) it should have been

RJD            42.9%
JD(U)         46.0%
CPI(ML)(L)   3.5%

So JD(U) "should" have won by 3% but lost by 25%.  So 14% of the ruling coalition vote has leaked to RJD.


It seems the conclusion is that in 2019 JD(U)-BJP-LJP-RLSP will have a fight on its hands with RJD-INC-HAM-CPI and will not be a cakewalk with the level of vote leakage from the ruling block to RJD-INC.

TDP has quit BJP led ruling NDA.

Its hand was forced.  Its main AP rival YSRCP has been turning the state against BJP for not granting AP special status and then tying TDP to BJP.   TDP tried to fight back by pulling out of NDA government but staying for now in NDA alliance.  TDP wants it both ways and have the BJP vote base ~4-5% but not have the large anti-BJP vote consolidate around YSRCP.   YSRCP counted by moving a vote of no confidence against the NDA government  (with INC support) and daring TDP to abstain.

TDP has decided that the narrative in 2019 in AP will be fairly anti-BJP and choose to cut its losses and leave the NDA alliance and also introduced its own motion of no confidence against the NDA.

In a surprise AIADMK which is fairly pro-BJP these days also came out in support for the vote of no confidence.  Again here, the AIADMK fear is that AIADMK rebel TTV Dhinakaran's new party AMMK will capture the anti-BJP AIADMK vote if AIADMK is seen as pro-BJP when the sentiment in TN is moving against BJP.

Also in a surprise NDA member SHS announced that it will also vote for the vote of no confidence.  SHS has already announced that in 2019 it will quit NDA and run separately from BJP but for now are still in the NDA government in the Center and Maharashtra for now.  What is bizarre about this decision is SHS has MPs in the cabinet which it is now going to vote against.  So SHS ministers will be voting against itself.

In Kerala BJP ally BDJS which is a Ezhava outfit also decided to quit its alliance with BJP.  In 2016 BJP-BDJS won an unprecedented near 15% of the vote in Kerala.  If this alliance breaks up then BJP's surge in Kerala would be halted and most likely reversed. 

India equity markets fell 2% overall over 2 days on by-election results plus TDP pulling out of NDA.

Now that the Bihar by-elections have shown that RJD-INC would be competitive with JD(U)-BJP in 2019 there will be a significant seat sharing problem for the JD(U)-BJP alliance.  In many ways game theory would indicate it is inevitable that RLSP will leave JD(U)-BJP to join RJD-INC alliance soon.

In 2014 seats sharing in Bihar was

BJP+
BJP      30  
LJP        7
RLSP     3

RJD+
RJD     27
INC     12
NCP      1

JD(U)+
JD(U)  38
CPI       2

Now that JD(U) joined up with NDA alliance there will be a major seat sharing problem since you have to fit JD(U) BJP LJP RLSP into 40 seats.  Back in 2009 the JD(U)-BJP seat sharing  was

JD(U)   25
BJP      15

So JD(U)'s initial position is: JD(U) formed an alliance with BJP but not LJP and RSLP so seats sharing should be like 2009 and BJP accommodate LJP and RLSP out of it's share which is

JD(U)   25
BJP      10
LJP        4
RLSP     1

Which given the fact that BJP has 22 MPs, LJP have 6 MP, and RLSP have 3 MPs is clearly not possible.  JD(U) will then say, lets keep the 25:15 formula but then try to accommodate LJP and RLSP which means it will be something like

JD(U)   22
BJP      13
LJP        4
RLSP     1

Still it would result in too many incumbent BJP LJP RLSP MPs just giving up their seats which is unacceptable and lead to mass rebellion.

Then after pressure JD(U) will accept that JD(U) and BJP are at par in Bihar so there should be a equal sharing of seats between JD(U) and BJP which means it would be something like

JD(U)   17
BJP      16
LJP        5
RLSP     2

Still it leaves mostly too many of the 22 incumbent BJP MPs without a job.  Under such pressure most likely JD(U)-BJP will try to squeeze LJP and RLSP to get to

JD(U)   17
BJP      18
LJP        4
RLSP     1

At this stage RLSP which has not burned their bridges with RJD-INC would then bolt to join RJD-INC.  LJP has burned its bridges with RJD-INC somewhat back in 2014 will only leave in an extreme situation.  Without RLDP then it becomes something like

JD(U)   17
BJP      18
LJP        5

or

JD(U)   17
BJP      19
LJP        4

Which I could see it barely making it.  BJP will need to find 3 incumbent MPs to give up their seats and LJP will need to find 2  incumbent MPs to give up their seats and JD(U) will have to accept a slightly lower seat share than BJP.  Note that since it is clear that the 2019 election would be competitive then it would increase the pressure for an aggressive negotiation posture in the NDA for seats since a seat allocated most likely means a best a 60% or even 50% chance of winning a seat unlike 2014 when it turned out it was a 75% chance.




On the INC-RJD side.  HAM and most likely NCP will come aboard.  Most likely the seat share will be

RJD     26
INC     11
HAM     2
NCP      1

HAM has no MPs so once it is clear that HAM cannot go back to JD(U)-BJP they will have to accept.  If RLSP were to come over, most likely they will demand 4 seats (they have 3 MPs) but will most likely accept 3 given they would have been offered 2 or even 1 with JD(U)-BJP.  So it will become

RJD     24
INC     10
RLSP    3
HAM     2
NCP      1

Which would mostly be acceptable to all parties as RLSP and HAM would get a worst deal with JD(U)-BJP.   Also since RJD only has 4 MPs and INC only has 2 MPs this distribution gives both a good chance to expand their numbers.

So gaming out negotiations on both sides seem to indicate the rational choice of RLSP would be to leave JD(U)-BJP and join up with RJD-INC.

https://in.news.yahoo.com/ram-temple-social-media-shifting-075019489.html

Points out that 2019 India LS elections will cost around 25,000 crore (10 million) INR.  That is about $4 billion with straight conversion and around $14 billion in PPP terms.   In contrast the cost of 2016 US election was around $6.5 billion (Prze Hosue and Senate races put together which is comparable to LS although we are not adding in cost of Upper House RS elections.)

It seems spending on Indian elections in PPP terms is more than half of US election spending on a per capita basis (India's population is around 4 times that of USA.)

In Karnataka, the INC government is making a move to recognize Lingayatism is a separate religion.   

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/who-are-lingayats-and-why-karnataka-chose-to-recommend-religious-minority-status-for-them-1193551-2018-03-20

Due to BJP leader and former CM Yeddyurappa who is a Lingayat, Lingayat  has the last few cycles voted BJP.  INC is trying to break this by pitting BJP Hindu nationalism to some in the Lingayat  community that does want to be recognized as a separate religion.

I am not sure such a move so close to the election would work and most likely INC would lose more non-Lingayat votes than any Lingayat votes it would get.  If anything this helps JD(S) the most as some non-Lingayat INC votes might go to JD(S) but some BJP Lingayat votes goes to INC.  The politics of identify always work likes Jujutsu: the first open attempt at polarization/consolidation does not get as much result as the counter-polarization/consolidation in response.

2018 RS elections took place. Mostly went as expected.  Two critical battles were in UP and Jharkhand where two grand alliances faced off with BJP.  In UP BJP can win 8 out of 10 seats for but a grand alliance of SP BSP INC RLD can prevent a 9th BJP victory.  In Jharkhand BJP can win 1 out of 2 seats but a grand alliance of INC JMM JVM can prevent a 2nd BJP victory.   In UP the grand alliance effort failed mostly due to some BSP MLAs who are in jail being disqualified and a BSP MLA defecting last minute so it ended up being 9 BJP 1 SP instead of 8 BJP 1 SP 1 BSP.  In Jharkhand the grand alliance won and split the 2 RS seats with BJP so it ended up being 1 BJP 1 INC and not 2 BJP.

The BJP victory in UP is somewhat Pyrrhic since the BSP candidate only lost due to issues within BSP.  The grand alliance mostly held where INC SP RLD all backed the BSP candidate.  It is a good confidence building measure which makes SP-BSP alliance more likely in 2019 LS election.

C-Fore Karnataka survey has INC ahead with a positive swing from 2013

           Seats        Vote Share
INC       126              46%
BJP         70              31%
JD(S)      27              16%
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Back in 2013 if we add up BJP vote share with BJP splinters KJP and BRSCP (both of which have since merged back into BJP) plus BJP rebels and compare it to INC (with rebels) and JD(S) (with rebels) vote share we get

INC+      38.42%
BJP+      34.42%
JD(S)      20.78%

So this poll seems to indicate that the INC will gain a strong vote share swing from 2013 with the BJP getting more seats than in 2013 only because now the BJP vote is not split between BJP KJP and BRSCP.

I mostly find this unlikely.  I suspect JD(S) is underestimated and INC overestimated.   here Whet I get out of this poll is that INC is most likely ahead of BJP but not clear at it that it will have a majority.  Most likely election result based on this poll is INC largest party but without majority.  If so the most likely government formation out of that is an unstable BJP-JD(S) government and the prospect of an early midterm election.

The churn of political alliances in Bihar is working out the way I mostly have expected post the Bihar by-elections.  I felt that the most likely outcome was that eventually RLSP will leave BJP-JD(U) and join up with RJD-INC. 

As if on queue RLSP came out saying that "all options are on the table" for 2019 alliances.  Then there were a bunch of meetings between JD(U) Nitish Kumar and LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan, followed by RLSP leader Upendra Kushwaha, and then JAP leader Pappu Yadav.  What is key here is that Upendra Kushwaha used to be a key Nitish Kumar sidekick until he broke with Nitish Kumar in 2013 to form RLSP.  Nitish Kumar is also a long time enemy of RJD rebel and now JAP leader Pappu Yadav.  That these meetings are taking place indicates that these parties plan to gang up on BJP to get their fair share of seats for 2019.  As I pointed by the Bihar by-elections showed that the BJP led bloc strike rate in 2019 LS elections will not be 75% but at best 60% or even 50%.  So that makes competition for seat allocation even more desperate.  The BJP position is that BJP will contest 22 out of 40 seats since BJP has 22 MPs in Bihar.  That clearly is not acceptable to the BJP allies so it seems a JD(U)-LJP-RLSP bloc will form within NDA to push down the BJP seat count.

There is even talk of a massive anti-BJP anti-RJD alliance where it could be JD(U)-INC-LJP-RLSP-HAM-JAP vs BJP vs RJD.  Most likely this is a threat that the JD(U)-LJP-RLSP bloc will be using to extract more seats allocation from BJP.  Of course the main weakness in this wide alliance is Nitish Kumar and JD(U).  JD(U) has been in power in Bihar (with different partners) since 2005 and the NDA by-election setbacks are as much as about the receding of the Modi wave as about exhaustion of patience for Nitish Kumar/JD(U).  If so then even if a  JD(U)-INC-LJP-RLSP-HAM-JAP alliance is formed then most likely it will be driven the third place by BJP and RJD.   I still think the most likely outcome ofa future JD(U)-LJP-RLSP vs BJP brinkmanship is the BJP will prevail and then to make the math work RLDP will be sacrificed followed by RLSP joining up with RJD-INC.

In WB the pro-Gorkhaland GJM has quit its alliance with BJP indicating that BJP has done nothing to advance the creation of Gorkhaland despite pre-election promises.  Most likely that in the 2019 the BJP will lose the Darjeeling LS seat which it held in both the 2009 and 2014 LS elections based GJM support.

If the INC can become the largest party in Karnataka in the May elections then it might signal the shift of the assembly election super-cycle against the BJP.  In many ways its is destined to come.  The Nov 2013 assembly elections of  MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Delhi was the start of the BJP victory super-cycle taking advantage of the fact that the ruling party of said state was a non-BJP party or when the ruling party at the center was the UPA.

If you look at the various large Indian states and what the winning party by year you can derive what the winning party in the next part of the cycle of which most went in favor of BJP in the 2013-2017 period but now will begin to turn against BJP.  Of course I assume that in 2019 LS elections BJP led alliance will come back to power (likely with a reduced majority) so the anti-incumbency on the center will weigh down the BJP.


Assam
INC tends to have the edge.  2016 INC defeat has to do with the fact that it has been in power for 3 terms.  The 2016 INC defeat had the INC vote share mostly intact and most things equal INC will win in 2021.

2021   INC
2016   BJP-AGP
2011   INC
2006   INC
2001   INC
1996   AGP
1991   INC
1985   AGP


Bihar
By 2015 it was clear the voters of Bihar was getting tired of JD(U) after 2 terms just like by 2005 it was getting tired of RJD and put in JD(U)-BJP.  The JD(U)-RJD grand alliance managed to beat the BJP in 2015.  In 2020 the BJP will be tied to 3 terms of incumbency of JD(U) and most likely RJD-INC will win.

2020   RJD-INC
2015   JD(U)-RJD
2010   JD(U)-BJP
2005   JD(U)-BJP
2000   RJD  
1995   JD
1990   JD
1985   INC


Chhattisgarh
BJP is now in its 3rd term and there is a 50/50 shot it will lose in 2018 given the fact that the BJP-INC gap have pretty much closed to nil by 2013.  Even if it narrowly wins in 2018 it will lose for sure to INC in 2023.

2018   INC
2013   BJP
2008   BJP
2003   BJP
1998   INC
1993   INC


Delhi
Here the cycle will work in favor of BJP.  As AAP stumbles with real power BJP should come storming back in 2020.

2020   BJP
2015   AAP
2013   No winner (BJP largest party narrowly over AAP,  AAP-INC forms government)
2008   INC
2003   INC
1998   INC
1993   BJP


Gujarat
BJP narrowly won in 2017.  After winning 7 terms in a row (it was going to get defeated in 2002 until the Gujarat riots of 2002 helped Modi to win) the INC is very likely to win in 2022.

2022   INC
2017   BJP
2012   BJP
2007   BJP
2002   BJP
1998   BJP
1995   BJP
1990   no winner (JD narrowly beat out BJP for largest party)
1985   INC

Haryana
3 cornered state between BJP INC and INLD.  BJP won in 2014 due to 2 term INC incumbency.  A reversion of the mean will have INC come back in 2019.

2019   INC
2014   BJP
2009   INC
2005   INC
2000   INLD-BJP
1996   HVP-BJP
1991   INC
1987   LKD
1982   INC


HP
Here INC and BJP alternates winning elections.  So in 2022 it will be the INC's turn.

2022   INC
2017   BJP
2012   INC
2007   BJP
2002   INC
1998   BJP (tie with INC)
1993   INC
1990   BJP
1985   INC
1982   INC


Jharkhand
BJP has been strong here but support tends to be split between BJP INC JMM and JVM.  Most likely in 2019 anti-incumbency and a INC-JMM-JVM grand alliance will defeat BJP.

2019   INC-JMM-JVM
2014   BJP-AJSU
2009   INC-JVM (largest bloc)
2005   BJP
2000   BJP


AP
BJP only does well when allied with TDP.  YSRCP has taken over from INC due to the 2013 Telengana
 split.  Now TDP has broken ties with BJP it will be TDP or YSRCP in 2019 with BJP out in the cold.  YSRCP most likely will win in 2019.

2019   YSRCP
2014   TDP-BJP
2009   INC
2004   INC
1999   TDP-BJP
1995   TDP  
1990   INC
1985   TDP
1983   TDP
1978   INC


Karnataka
No ruling party has won re-election since 1985.  But if the CM manages to finish a 5 year term the ruling party can prevent an opposition majority which was the case in 2004 and most likely the case in 2018.

2018   No winner (INC most likely largest party but with BJP-JD(S) forms government)
2013   INC
2008   BJP
2004   No winner (BJP largest party but INC-JD(S) forms government)
1999   INC
1994   JD
1989   INC
1985   JNP


MP
BJP has won 3 terms in a row when going into 2018.  Even if it wins in 2018 which is a better than 50/50 shot its margin would be reduced and is is very likely in 2023 INC will win.

2023   INC
2018   BJP
2013   BJP
2008   BJP
2003   BJP
1998   INC
1993   INC
1990   BJP
1985   INC


Maharashtra
Area of traditional INC strength but BJP has been rising in strength here.  BJP becoming the senior partner has worked to drive away SHS.  If 2019 SHS runs separately from BJP then INC-NCP are likely to win.

2019   INC-NCP
2014   BJP-SHS
2009   INC-NCP
2004   INC-NCP
1999   INC-NCP
1995   SHS-BJP
1990   INC
1985   INC


Orissa
State went from a BJD vs INC state to a BJD vs INC vs BJP state after a period of BJD-BJP alliance.  Now it is a battler for second place (BJP or INC.)  In 2019 BJD is likely to win but establish the BJP as the alternative to BJD.  In 2024 BJP will most likely win.

2024   BJP
2019   BJD
2014   BJD
2009   BJD
2004   BJD-BJP
2000   BJD-BJP
1995   INC
1990   JD
1985   INC


Punjab
Here the cycle will move in favor of SAD-BJP.  Usually the incumbent does not win re-election and the 2012 SAD-BJP win was an exception which only set up a massive victory for INC in 2017. AAP wave has mostly receded.  In 2022 SAD-BJP are likely to come back.  

2022   SAD-BJP
2017   INC
2012   SAD-BJP
2007   SAD-BJP
2002   INC
1997   SAD-BJP
1992   INC
1985   SAD  


Rajasthan
Last few election cycles BJP and INC alternates in power with large wild swings.  In 2018 it will be INC's turn to win.

2018   INC
2013   BJP
2008   INC
2003   BJP
1998   INC
1993   BJP
1990   BJP-JD
1985   INC


UP
No incumbent party has won re-election since 1985.  2022 will be no different.  Assuming SP-BSP alliance holds BJP will be defeated in 2022.

2022   SP-BSP
2017   BJP
2012   SP
2007   BSP
2002   SP (largest party)
1996   BJP (largest party)
1993   SP-BSP (largest bloc)
1991   BJP
1989   JD
1985   INC


Uttarakhand
INC and BJP alternatives in power.  2022 will be the INC's turn to win.

2022   INC
2017   BJP
2012   INC
2007   BJP
2002   INC
1996   BJP


Telengana
Like Orissa we have a dominate regional party, TRS, with INC and BJP fighting for second.  More likely or not INC will emerge as the main alternative to TRS.  2019 TRS will win due to split opposition but in 2024 INC will win.

2024   INC
2019   TRS
2014   TRS


TN
AIADMK and DMK alternates in power with the party that has the stronger alliance partner (usually INC) winning.  AIADMK won re-election in 2016, a first since 1984.  But with Jalaylalitha gone and AIADMK split it is clear that in 2021 DMK-INC will come back.  AIADMK is more pro-BJP than DMK so this next shift will be part of the anti-BJP cycle.

2021   DMK-INC
2016   AIADMK
2011   AIADMK-DMDK
2006   DMK-INC
2001   AIADMK-INC
1996   DMK-TMC
1991   AIADMK-INC
1989   DMK
1984   AIADMK-INC
1980   AIADMK-INC
1977   AIADMK

Who are they backing now? Going solo?

Unclear.  This move by GJM seems to have provoked a civil war within the GJM between pro-BJP and anti-BJP factions so perhaps GJM might come back.  Of course the underlying conflict is over BJP's pre-2014 support of a separate Gorkhaland which was the basis of GJM-BJP alliance in Darjeeling of WB.  Now that BJP is in charge at the center GJM and the BJP MP of Darjeeling have been demanding the Modi government act on the BJP's promise.  Modi and BJP had to dance around this since if they forced the creation of Gorkhaland then the BJP can kiss being  relevant political force in WB for a couple of election cycles. 

With by-election setbacks and TDP leaving NDA the various regional opposition parties smell blood for 2019 LS elections.  There seems to be 3 streams of attempts to form an anti-BJP front in 2019.  Those that want to form an regional party alliance with INC to take on BJP, those that want to form an non-INC but anti-BJP front, and those that want to form an anti-INC anti-BJP front.  It really depends on how the regional parties relationship with INC in their home state.

NCP and RJD are allies with INC in Maharashtra and Bihar which in turn mean they are for a federal front allied with INC.  AITC which are rivals with INC (which might ally with Left Front to take on AITC) does not see INC as a long term threat but does see BJP as a long term threat are for a non-INC but anti-BJP front.  TRS TDP and BJD which have an anti-INC past or sees INC as rivals in Telangana, AP and Orissa want an ant-INC anti-BJP front.

The position of JD(S) in Karnataka interesting.  On paper they should be like AITC where they are for non-INC anti-BJP front since JD(S) was formed as an anti-BJP party in 1999 to protest JD(U) desire to form an alliance with BJP.  In reality everyone knows that all things equal JD(S) is much more likely to form an alliance with BJP post Karnataka election.  The reason is because in Karnataka JD(S) is relevant only in South Karnataka where its Vokkaliga base is large.  In fact Karnataka politics last few cycles are mostly about INC vs JS(S) in the 60 some seats in South Karnataka and INC vs BJP in the 160 some seats in North and Coastal Karnataka as the JD(S) and JD(US) base outside of South Karnataka has drifted toward BJP.  This is the main reason why INC tends to under-perform in terms of seats relative to vote share last few election cycles.  So in many ways BJP and JD(S) are natural allies since their respective bases are not in conflict with each other.  AITC has been trying to get JD(S) to join an non-INC anti-BJP front to no avail.  The reason why is obvious.

jaichind, what do you anticipate the main issues in the 2019 LS elections to be?

Most likely a combo of various communal issues plus developmental issues (employment, inflation etc etc.) I think what is key is not the balance of those issues but if the election will be a "Presidential" election (like 1971, 1977, 1984, and 2014) or one which is a confederation of state elections (2004 is a very good example of this.)  If the former then Modi will come back to power with NDA getting a majority and BJP most likely barely missing a majority by itself.  If the later then Modi might be in trouble and BJP might be reduced to around 200 seats and NDA will struggle to get a majority and the BJP might have to dump Modi to win enough allies to form a government.

The opposition main advantage is that in many states the alliance math and/or the election cycle is moving against BJP.  The main BJP advantage is the Modi brand and that the opposition are not able to project a PM candidate of equal stature.

A good part of Northern India was shut down today due to mass Dalit demonstrations and rioting in high Dalit concentrated areas (UP MP Punjab Haryana Rajasthan).  This was to protest a recent Supreme Court ruling that watered down the  Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (Prevention of Atrocities) Act that put a greater burden of proof on victims of anti-Dalit atrocities.  

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It seems a good part of the demonstrations is directed at the BJP despite the fact that it was a SC ruling and nothing to do with the Modi regime.  This is ominous as a good part of the pro-BJP swing in 2014 from 2009 was from the BSP Dalit vote bloc.  If this continues to be an issue then this swing will be reversed in 2019.

http://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/karnataka-congress-leader-plays-swing-exercise-quits-party-in-morning-joins-bjp-comes-back-by-evening/215347

Funny story about how Karnataka Panemangaluru block INC secretary Sundara Devinagara was welcomed to the BJP at a function in the morning by U Rajesh Naik, who is to contest from Bantwal constituency and then rejoined INC at another programme held at Mani a few hours later, after apparently being cajoled by INC party leaders.   So he changed parties twice within a 8 hour period!!

With UP BJP government trying to deal with a resurgent opposition with the SP-BSP alliance as well as Dalit protests and clear anger by Dalit BJP MPs and MLA toward the UP BJP government, yet another blow has taken place.  A 16 year old girl tried to commit suicide in front of the UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath's house.

It seems that a BJP MLA and minister in the UP cabinet Kuldeep Singh Sengar
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who is a famous party hopper (he started in the Youth INC in the late 1990s then was elected as MLA with BSP in 2002 and then elected in 2007 and 2012 with SP and then defected to BJP and elected again in 2017 has alleged organized a gang rape of this 16 year old last year with his brother.  After the rape the girl's family worked to file charges to no avail with the police. The girl's family got repeated calls (which were recorded) from the BJP MLA Kuldeep Singh Sengar threatening them to drop charges. Then the BJP MLA  Kuldeep Singh Sengar and brother got the police to arrest the girl's father who then was tortured and then died in prison.  This triggered the girl to then to go to the house of the UP CM to unsuccessfully commit suicide.   

This story is leading to large outrage in the media especially when  Kuldeep Singh Sengar still have not been questioned by the police yes and still is a member of the UP cabinet.

India Today-Karvy poll for Karnataka has hung assembly with slight INC lead
 
              Seats    vote share
INC             96           37%
BJP             82           35%
JD(S)-BSP   39           19%
Others          7             9%


which is pretty much 2013 results but with the 2013 BJP splinters (KJP BSRCP) merging back into the BJP vote.

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In Karnataka even though JD(S) has an alliance with BSP, it seems that with the anti-BJP SP-BSP alliance being formed in UP BSP has not broken the alliance but now seems much more passive about the election given the perception that post election JD(S) is more likely to back BJP than INC. NCP which had planned to perhaps ally with JD(S) now back backed out of that and will back INC in the Karnataka.

Given the bad blood between BJP and TDP after the split of TDP from NDA over the Special status for AP, TDP is telling to Telegu population in Karnataka to vote against BJP.

More signs of political churn ahead of the 2019 LS elections.  We already had the unprecedented SP-BSP alliance which was unthinkable given their post-1995 rivalry. 

Now there are signs of INC and TDP coming together with TDP backing INC in the Karnataka assembly elections and INC in Telangana openly talking about pursuing an INC-TDP alliance which breaks the old INC-TDP rivalry that started in 1983

In Maharashtra NCP came out and said that SHS does not pose a danger to secularism which implies that NCP is open to an alliance with SHS. 

Both events have geographical reasons.  When AP was united it was very simple: it was INC vs TDP.  Then when the Telangana issue started the early 2000s the TDP branch in Telangana broke off and formed TRS.  As Telangana was formed the Seemandhra branch of INC broke off and formed YSRCP.  So in Seemandhra (now AP) it is now a battle between TDP vs YSRCP.  In Telangana it is now INC vs TRS.  So both TDP and INC have different rivals in the two regions making it much easier to form an alliance.

In Maharashtra SHS tends to be strong in the Mumbai area and weak in the rest of Maharashtra while SHS is exactly the opposite.  So these two parties natural allies.  The idea of a NCP-SHS alliance has been talked about before but it is coming up again.

With about a year to go before 2019 LS elections I decided to do a bottoms up district-by-district prediction of 2019 LS results.

My assumptions are
1) Unlike 2014 this will be a confederation of various state dynamics driven by alliance math as well as anti-incumbency.  2004 was like this model.  2014 and to some extent 199 there was a Modi and Vajpayee wave that made the election more "Presidential" choice election.   If 2019 was such a choice election then BJP/Modi will do fairly well.  I am assuming that this election will be "wave-less"
2) Various anti-BJP alliance driven by the rise of the BJP gets created in several critical states (UP, Jharkhand), INC gaining some critical allies (TDP in AP and Telangana), and BJP unable to retain key allies (SHS and TDP)
3) Most of the 2014 AAP vote outside of places like Delhi Punjab and Haryana were from urban middle class voters that will mostly flow back to BJP now that AAP fad is over and AAP will mostly retreat to the Greater Delhi area.
4) State level support tend to match last assembly elections with ever greater anti-incumbency.
5) Karnataka assembly election in May 2019 gives INC an edge over BJP
6) For Nov 2018 elections, MP assembly election has BJP winning but INC closing the gap, INC coming very close to winning in Chhattisgarh and INC winning in Rajasthan.

Going state by state we have (in terms of seats and estimated voted share)

J&K
BJP-PDP will have an alliance which actually works against them as their voting bases are not compatible and lose votes to INC-NC.  The support for BJP is skewed which works against them in terms of seats.

2019  
NDA: 1 (1 BJP, 0 PDP) ~42%
UPA: 5 (3 NC, 2 INC)  ~43%

2014
NDA:       3 (3 BJP)               32.6%
UPA:       0 (0 NC, 0 INC)       34.3%
Others:   3 PDP                     20.7%


HP:
Mostly replicates 2017 HP assembly elections with a bit of anti-incumbency that is somewhat mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindi heartland

2019
NDA: 3 BJP   ~53%
UPA: 1 INC   ~45%

2014
NDA: 4 BJP      53.9%
UPA: 0 INC      41.1%


Haryana
3 way battle between BJP INC and INLD.  AAP also will be in the hunt.  BSP will back INLD.  BJP loses ground from 2014 assembly elections but somewhat mitigated by Modi popularity in the Hindi heartland.

2019
NDA:      5 BJP                                 ~34%
UPA:      2 INC                                 ~27%
Others:  3 INLD-BSP (3 INLD 0 BSP)  ~29%
             0 AAP                                   ~7%

2014:
NDA:     7 (7 BJP 0 HJC)        40.9%
UPA:     1 INC                       23.0%
Others: 2 INLD                     24.4%
            0 BSP                        4.6%
            0 AAP                        4.3%

Punjab
AAP has lost a lot of ground mostly to NDA since the 2017 assembly elections.  NDA will do better in relative terms when compared to 2017 assembly elections.

2019
NDA:    7 (6 SAD, 1 BJP)    ~38%
UPA:     6 INC                   ~37%
Others: 0 AAP-LIF             ~18%
            0 BSP                     ~3%

2014:
NDA:     6 (4 SAD, 2 BJP)  35.2%
UPA:     3 INC                  33.2%
Others: 4 AAP                  24.5%
            0 BSP                   1.9%

Delhi
AAP landslide victory of 2015 assembly elections is now a distant memory with AAP administration losing a lot of credibility.    AAP loses support  back to INC which means BJP sweeps the polls again

2019
NDA: 7 BJP      ~44%
UPA:  0 INC     ~23%
Others: 0 AAP  ~30%

2014:
NDA:    7 BJP   46.6%
UPA:     0 INC  15.2%
Others: 0 AAP  33.1%


Uttarakhand
Results will mostly mimic 2017 assembly election with BJP losing some ground due to anti-incumbency which is partly mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindu heartland  

2019
NDA:     4 BJP    ~48%
UPA:     1 INC    ~42%
Others  0 BSP      ~8%

2014:
NDA:    5 BJP    55.9%
UPA:     0 INC    34.4%
Others: 0 BSP     4.8%


UP
This is the big one.  I assume some swing away from BJP due to anti-incumbency from its 2017 assembly election victory.  I also assume that SP-BSP-RLD-PECP-NISHAD alliance will be formed.  INC will have a tactical alliance with this new mega front.  INC will run in only half the seats in UP with this mega-front not running in 7 seats where INC is the clear alternative to BJP.  These alliances are so broad in terms of social breath that some votes will be lost to rebels as well as the BJP.  Net effect is BJP from (BJP AD(S) and SBSP) actually gains votes relative to 2014 but loses a bunch of seats due to the consolidation of the anti-BJP vote.

2019
NDA: 35 (32 BJP 2 AD(S) 1 SBSP)                                          ~45%
UPA:   4 INC                                                                          ~7%
Others: Grand alliance 41 (25 SP 15 BSP 1 RLD 0 NISHAD)      ~42%

2014
NDA:    73 (71 BJP 2 AD)   43.6%
UPA:       2 INC                   8.5%
Others:   5 SP                   22.3%
              0 BSP                 19.8%


Bihar
On paper the NDA now have a very large coalition with BJP-JD(U)-LJP-RLSP.  Most likely not all these parties can be accommodated and RLSP will go over to UPA.  UPA will counter with RLD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-NCP-JMM-CPM-CPI.  HAM is the JD(U) splinter that was with NDA in the 2015 assembly elections but already went over to UPA.  LJD is the pro-RJP JD(U) faction led by Sharad Yadav.  In theory NDA has the numbers to sweep the polls.  In reality having JD(U) come over to NDA also brings with it anti-incumbency and the result will be an almost even split between NDA and UPA.

2019
NDA:  22 (15 BJP 4 JD(U) 3 LJP)                                    ~45%
UPA:   18 (12 RJD 4 INC 1 LJD 1 NCP 0 HAM 0 RLSP)      ~44%

2014
NDA:   31 (22 BJP 6 LJP 3 RLSP)         39.5%
UPA:     7 (4 RJD 2 INC 1 NCP)           30.3%
Others: 2 JD(U)-CPI (2 JD(U) 0 CPI)   17.2%


MP
Assuming 2018 assembly results are a BJP victory with a reduced margin we should expect the 2019 LS election to mimic that result with a small swing toward BJP due to Modi's popularity in the Hindi heartland.

2019
NDA:  21 BJP     ~51%
UPA:    8 INC     ~41%

2014
NDA:  27 BJP     54.8%
UPA:    2 INC     35.4%


Rajasthan
Rajasthan is very elastic and always alternates in power each election.   Here I expect INC to win a narrow victory in 2018 assembly elections and for the LS election results to mostly mimic the assembly election result with a small swing toward BJP due to Modi's popularity in the Hindi heartland.

2019
NDA: 11 BJP      ~47%
UPA:  14 INC     ~46%

2014
NDA: 25 BJP    55.6%
UPA:   0 INC    30.7%


Chhattisgarh
Chhattisgarh has been trending INC last few election cycles and I expect a narrow BJP or INC victory in the 2018 assembly elections.  Former INC CM Ajit Jogi has split off and formed CJC but should have fairly limited impact beyond hurting INC in a couple of seats.  Modi has been popular here both with the OBCs and tribals and should give the BJP an edge here.

2019
NDA:  8 BJP       ~47%
UPA:  3 INC       ~42%

2014
NDA:  10 BJP    49.7%
UPA:    1 INC    39.1%


Jharkhand
Here NDA has gained an ally since the 2014 LS elections in the form of AJSU.  But that is counted by anti-incumbency since the 2014 assembly elections plus a grand alliance of JMM-INC-JVM-RJD.  The result should be mostly a draw.

2019
NDA:  7 (7 BJP 0 AJSU)                         ~43%
UPA:   7 (3 JMM 3 INC 1 JVM 0 RJD)       ~44%

2014
NDA:  12 BJP                   40.7%                
UPA:    2 (2 JMM 0 INC)    24.6%
           0 JVM                   12.3%
           0 AJSU                   3.8%

Gujarat
I expect the election result to mimic the 2017 assembly election with again a small swing toward Modi due to the favorite son affect and Modi's popularity in the Hindi heartland.  INC should get some seats based on an INC-BTP-NCP alliance to consolidate the anti-BJP vote.

2019
NDA:  21 BJP                                ~53%
UPA:    5 (4 INC 1 BTP 0 NCP)        ~43%

2014
NDA:  26 BJP                       60.1%
UPA:    0 (0 INC 0 NCP)        34.4%


Maharashtra
Here the old NDA parties BJP and SHS have, if anything, expanded since 2014.  Main issue for BJP here is SHS pretty much has decided to go off on their own given their fear that BJP is trying to displace them.  Also some alliance swaps took place. SWP which was with NDA in 2014 has go over to the UPA while BVA which was with UPA in 2014 has go over to the BJP.  I also assume that UPA will get PWPI to join UPA.  The net affect of BJP and SHS splitting and INC-NCP alliance holding is that INC-NCP will gain seats even if their vote share might stagnate or decline.   SHS splinter NMS which also has turned hostile to Modi recently could end up in an alliance with SHS which I will assume for now.

2019
NDA:                 14 (13 BJP 1 BVA)                             ~32%
UPA:                 27 (11 INC 13 NCP 2 SWP 1 PWPI)      ~37%
Others:  SHS+     7 (7 SHS 0 NMS)                             ~23%

2014
NDA:    42 (23 BJP 18 SHS 1 SWP)         51.6%
UPA:      6 (2 INC 4 NCP)                       35.0%
Others:  0 NMS                                       1.5%

Goa
I expect the results to match the 2016 assembly election with some swing away from BJP due to anti-incumbency as well as infighting within NDA.

2019
NDA: 1 BJP     ~51%
UPA: 1 INC     ~42%

2014
NDA: 2 BJP    54.1%
UPA:  0 INC   37.0%


WB
Here I expect a BJP surge mostly at the expense of the Left Front and to some extent AITC.  INC and Left front will form a tactical alliance where INC will back Left Front in most seats and Left Front will back INC in a few seats with some seats where both are strong having both contesting.  The INC-Left Front tactical alliance are able to save a few seats (mostly to the benefit of INC) while the BJP surge is not enough to gain BJP a large number of seats, yet.  GJM has called off its support for BJP and switched to AITC which means BJP will lose Darjeeling to AITC.

2019
NDA:        6 BJP            ~27%
UPA:        6 INC              ~7%
Others:  29 AITC           ~37%
              1  Left Front    ~26%

2014
NDA:      2 BJP           17.0%
UPA        4 INC            9.7%
Others: 34 AITC         39.8%
             2 Left Front   30.1%


Orissa
Here BJP is emerging as the main opponent to BJD with INC losing support fast to both BJP and BJD.  BJP will gain a lot in terms of vote share an seats but not enough to displace BJD as the number one party.

2019
NDA:      8 BJP     ~37%
UPA:      0 INC     ~15%
Others: 13 BJD    ~43%

2014
NDA:     1 BJP     21.9%
UPA       0 INC    26.4%
Others: 20 BJD   44.8%


Karnataka
Here I expect INC to emerge as the largest party in the 2018 assembly elections if not a majority.  One key aspect is the relative revival of JD(S) which will un-do some anti-INC tactical voting for BJP in INC-BJP marginal seats.   Due to the distribution of vote share support BJP will hold a seat advantage even with similar vote share.

2019
NDA:   14 BJP      ~38%
UPA:    10 INC     ~39%
Others:  4 JD(S)  ~20%

2014
NDA:   17 BJP      43.4%
UPA:     9 INC      41.2%
Others: 2 JD(S)   11.2%


AP
Here the end of TDP-BJP alliance puts TDP in trouble relative to YSRCP.  The TDP-YSRCP battle of the special status for AP has poised the environment so much that no party will ally with BJP.  TDP also has to deal with the fact that JSP which backed TDP in 2014 will now strike out on its own.  As a result I assume that a shocking TDP-INC alliance will be formed to prevent a total TDP meltdown.  Such an alliance could not prevent the loss of seats to YSRCP but does limit the damage.  Post-election YSRCP could end up joining forces with BJP.

2019
NDA:       0 BJP                      ~4%
UPA:        9 (7 TDP 2 INC)     ~40%
Others:  16 YSRCP                ~43%
              0 JSP                     ~11%

2014
NDA:    17 (15 TDP 2 BJP)    48.0%
UPA:       0 INC                     2.9%
Others:   8 YSRCP                45.7%


Telangana
Here the fall of TDP-BJP alliance means at race between INC and TRS to win over TDP.  I assume that INC will win that race.  YSRCP has completely pulled out of the state.  INC-TDP will fight TRS to a draw.

2019
NDA:    1 BJP                       ~17%
UPA:     7 (4 INC 3 TDP)       ~39%
Others: 8 TRS                      ~36%
            1 AIMIM                    ~4%

2014
NDA:      2 (1 BJP 1 TDP)     22.8%
UPA:      2 INC                    25.7%
Others: 11 TRS                   34.9%
             1 YSRCP                 4.5%
             1 AIMIM                 3.5%


TN
TN in politics is in turmoil.  AIADMK has splintered since 2016 after the death of Jayalaliatha.  The Sasikala faction led by TTV Dhinakaran has created AMMK which will cut into AIADMK votes.   Also film Rajinikanth has formed his own new party which like DMDK a decade ago I would expect to capture around 10% of the vote.  Rajinikanth's party name is not announced yet but I assume it will be RMM which is the name of his fan club.  Rajinikanth views are closer to BJP most likely will ally with BJP (this is what BJP wants) although BJP's reputation in TN is fairly low given their repeated intervention in the AIADMK civil war which TN votes view as an infringement of TN autonomy.  To some extent the rise of AMMK also stems from the same trend.  The winner of all this is clearly DMK which has recreated its alliance with INC and will get other pro-DMK parties like VCK PT MMK to continue their alliance.  The icing on the cake is getting MDMK to join up with the DMK front.  PMK and DMDK will also contest either together or separately but that will only split the anti-DMK vote. With AIADMK splintered DMK bloc is poised to sweep the polls given the uniform swing nature of TN.

2019
NDA:      0 (0 RMM 0 BJP)                                 ~13%
UPA      33 (23 DMK 5 INC 3 MDMK 1 VCK 1 PT) ~37%
Others:   5 AIADMK                                          ~30%
             0 AMMK                                               ~9%
             1 PMK

2014
NDA:       2 (1 PMK 1 BJP 0 DMDK 0 MDMK)     18.7%
UPA:       0 INC                                                4.4%
Others:  39 AIADMK                                       44.9%
              0 DMK                                             27.2%


Kerala
Here I expect some anti-incumbency to hit the Left Front since the 2016 assembly elections but while UPA will gain from Left Front UPA will lose more to a surging BJP.  BJP has lost its alliance with BDJS but I assume it will regain it by the time of the LS election.  BJP will win its first seat in Kerala.  KEC(M) has broken has INC but I expect by the LS election for KEC(M) to come back.  

2019
NDA:       1 BJP                                          ~15%
UPA:       7 (3 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)   ~41%
Others:  12 Left Front                                 ~41%

2014
NDA:     0 BJP                                              10.9%
UPA:    12 (8 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)      42.5%
Others:  8 Left Front                                    41.6%


Assam
BJP is stronger than 2014 LS election given its new allies (AGP and BPF).  On the other hand there is anti-incumbency since the 2016 assembly elections.  As a result I expect the result to be evenly matched between NDA and UPA.

2019
NDA:       6 (5 BJP 1 BPF 0 AGP)       ~43%
UPA:        5 INC                              ~36%
Others:    3 AIUDF                          ~14%

2014
NDA:      7 BJP                     38.7%
UPA:       3 (3 INC 0 BPF)     31.5%
Others:   3 AIUDF                15.0%
              1 ex-ULFA               4.2%
              0 AGP                     3.9%


6 Federal districts
I expect here to be a small swing away from NDA to UPA with INC gaining a couple of seats

2019
NDA:     3 (3 BJP 0 AINRC)
UPA:     3 (2 INC 1 NCP)

2014
NDA:      5 (4 BJP 1 AINRC)
UPA:     1 (0 INC 1 NCP)



11 Northeast seats
I expect a complete NDA sweep here given recent assembly elections results there as well as the fact these backward states tend to vote for the incumbent national party given its dependency on federal subsidies.

2019
NDA:    11 (6 BJP 1 NDPP 1 NPP 1 UDF(M) 1 UDP 1 SDF)
UPA:      0 INC
Others:  0 Left Front

2014
NDA:      4 (1 BJP 1 NPF 1 NPP 1 SDF)
UPA:      5 INC
Others:  2 Left Front


The total result of all this are

NDA: 217 (194 BJP)  ~35.5% (~31.5% BJP)
UPA   182 (101 INC)  ~30.5% (~21.5% INC)

Back in 2014 it was

NDA:  336 (282 BJP)  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:     59 ( 44 INC)  23.1% (19.3% INC)

which is a major setback for BJP.  Note that BJP vote share of ~31.5% is nearly identical to 2014 but losing key allies as well as consolidation of the anti-BJP vote brings down its seat share dramatically.  The distribution of BJP vote is also not as favorable.  INC vote share of ~21.5% is only 2.0% higher than in 2014 but the right alliances gives it a lot more seats along with a more favorable distribution of votes.  

It seems that in UP 4 BJP Dalit MPs are openly attacking the BJP leadership over treatment of Dalits and most likely will not be renominated.

https://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/India/20180417/3323177.html

It is pointed out that all 4 were defectors from BSP to BJP and won on the BJP ticket in 2014 are looking to defect back to BSP now that with the SP-BSP alliance it is likely they will lose re-election.  All 4 it seems were able to pull in Dalit votes in 2014 but given the issues with Dalits and the current UP regime that seems unlikely to repeat itself.  So in order come up with a reason to defect back they came out openly to attack the BJP leadership. 

This would be a good data set to back-test my predictions since all 4 BJP Dalit MPs view their seats are likely to be not winnable in 2019.    The 4 seats in question are (along with 2014 and my 2019 model results)

Etawah
2014
BJP  46.8%
SP   28.4%
BSP  20.5%
INC   1.4%

2019 (INC withdraws from this seat)
BJP  47.9%
SP   46.6%


Nagina
2014
BJP  39.0%
SP   29.2%
BSP  26.1%
PECP  2.3%
MD    1.4% (INC ally)

2019 (INC withdraws from this seat)
SP   52.8%
BJP  40.9%


Robertsganj
2014
BJP  42.7%
SP   21.1%
BSP  15.3%
INC   9.7%
CPI    2.8%

2019 (INC runs here)
BJP   43.4%
BSP  38.7%
INC    7.8%


Bahraich
2014
BJP  46.3%
SP   36.1%
BSP  10.4%
INC   2.6%

2019 (INC withdraws from this seat)
SP   47.5%
BJP  45.9%


So under my model BJP actually would win 2 of the 4 seats (1 of them narrowly.)  In Robertsganj had INC not run a candidate under my model BJP would also narrowly win.  So these Dalit BJP MPs, if anything, is slightly more negative than my model on the prospects of BJP in UP against a SP-BSP grand alliance.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2018/apr/17/bjp-wants-to-contest-for-majority-of-seats-in-bihar-in-2019-polls-sends-jitters-in-jdu-ljp-and-r-1802830.html

It seems the Bihar LS seat sharing battle is heating up.  BJP insist contesting a majority of the 40 Bihar LS seats based on the fact that it won 22 seats in 2014.  JD(U) which back in 2004 and 2009 contested 25 seats as an ally of BJP insist that it must have at least 18.  LJP which won 6 in 2014 wants 10 and RLSP which won 3 in 2014 wants 7.  What makes it worse is 1 of the RLSP winners in 2014 has since defected to BJP.  So RLSP way of looking at things is: RLSP won 3 seats in 2014.  The way BJP looks at it is: BJP has 23 incumbent MPs to accommodate which makes barging worse.

I think the end game here is that RLSP defects to UPA and BJP JD(U) LJP work out some compromise deal.

Also I think BJP made a mistake back in 2017 to form an alliance with JD(U) as the ruling party of Bihar.  What the BJP really did was to inherent anti-incumbency at both levels (Federal and state) with a weakened Nitish Kumar.  What the BJP should have done was to insist on a BJP CM back in 2017 which could have reset the clock on state anti-incumbency.  It ls clear now that the BJP sees it mistake and is trying to push Hindu polarization to beat back RJD.  RJD on the flip side is pushing a Backwards-Dalit-Muslim count-consolidating.  Both acts merely weakens JD(U) even more as its base splinters between BJP and RJD. 

The best sort of alliance is to join up with an opposition that is clearly the main alternative to an incumbent party weighted down by anti-incumbency.  The INC alliance with DMK in TN is a clear example of this which will get rich dividends for both DMK and INC.  My conjectured alliance between INC and TDP in AP in that sense will not be that great of an alliance for INC but could save TDP from total defeat by YSRCP.  I guess the strategy there  would be for TDP-INC to blame BJP for all issues related to AP development due to BJP federal government not granting AP special status.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/gurgaon/inld-bsp-seal-poll-deal-to-fight-bjp/articleshow/63822213.cms

One alliance prediction I made and assumed for by election projection model already came true.  I had assumed that in Haryana INLD and BSP will form an alliance.  It seems within a day or two they came out with an announcement of such an alliance.

In Karnataka it could be CM vs CM and for sure son vs son.

INC CM Siddaramaiah vacated his seat of Varuna so his son can run there.  Instead he will run in his old seat and JD(S) stronghold of Chamundeshwari.  The son BJP CM candidate (and an ex-CM) Yeddyurappa will also run in Varuna to make it son vs son.  Siddaramaiah represented  Chamundeshwari when he was in JD(S).  The Chamundeshwari JD(S) incumbent is  Siddaramaiah's old protege.

In 2013 Varuna it was

INC (Siddaramaiah)   52.5%
KJP                           34.1%  (KJP was Yeddyurappa BJP splinter party in 2013)
JD(S)                          1.7%

In 2013  Chamundeshwari it was
JD(S)      42.9%
INC         38.9%
KJP           9.5%
BJP           4.7%

JD(S) is determined to hit back at Siddaramaiah who it views as a traitor.  There rumors of a tactical deal between BJP and JD(S) in Chamundeshwari and Varuna where the BJP will run a weak candidate in Chamundeshwari so the anti-INC vote can consolidate to defeat Siddaramaiah while JD(S) will run a weak candidate in Varuna to try to defeat Siddaramaiah's son.


It seems that Siddaramaiah will also run from Badami.   In response it is said that Yeddyurappa will also run in Badami so they can face each other face to face.  If so this election will become CM vs CM in Badami and son vs son in Varuna.

In 2013  Badami it was

INC     41.3%
JD(S)   30.4%
BJP      21.8%
KJP       2.2%

There were a bunch of municipal elections Jharkhand a few days ago.  The opposition (JMM INC JVM RJD) contested separately on purpose to get a sense of the relative strength of these opposition parties.  BJP and AJSU did the same for similar reasons.  The BJP swept most of the seats.  JMM and JVM under-performed while INC over-performed.   The vote share split seems to indicate that the opposition must unite in 2019 LS and assembly elections to have a chance but if they do unite it will be quite competitive.

It seems what JMM and JVM got out of the elections are that there are no room for any splintering of the opposition and both seem determined join hand with INC take on the ruling BJP-AJSU ruling bloc. INC's performance seem to mean that while JMM will be the leader of the opposition alliance, INC will be in a strong bargaining position for a significant number of seats.  For 2019, like I expected, we are headed toward a bipolar BJP-AJSU vs JMM-INC-JVM-RJD.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/bsp-may-not-contest-against-gandhis-in-2019/articleshow/63854967.cms

In UP it seems that SP-BSP alliance talks are far enough along that BSP is now open to not contesting in the Gandhi (Sonia and Rahul) seats.  INC sources seems to indicate that they would be open to an alliance with SP-BSP where INC would get 10-12 seats with SP-BSP splitting the rest after RLD get a seat or two. 

My base case is still that such an alliance would be hard to pull off.  I foresee a situation where SP-BSP gives INC at most 7 seats which leads to a partial alliance with SP-BSP-RLD-NISHAND contests 73 seats (35 SP 35 BSP 2 RLD 1 NISHAND) and backing INC in the rest.  INC would withdraw candidates in 40+ seats to back the Grand Alliance but will run candidates in the rest.

Times Now-VMR has it neck-to-neck between INC and BJP with a very strong performance for JD(S)
  

                       Seats     Vote share
INC                    91            38.6%
BJP                    89            35.0%
JD(S)-BSP          40            21.3%
Others                 4             5.04%

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ABP News-Lokniti CSDS poll for Karnataka has BJP slightly ahead

                       Seats     Vote share
INC                    88            37%
BJP                    92            35%
JD(S)-BSP          35             
()

If I were INC I would be very nervous with all these polls having it neck-to-neck between INC and BJP.  All things equal the incumbent party will under-perform pre-election surveys. 

In Karnataka the BJP has backed out of the Son vs Son battle by not nominating BJP CM Yeddyurappa's son to contest Varuna against INC CM Siddaramaiah's son.  Not clear why this was done after the hype and the build up for this prestige battle.  The BJP base seems to have been demoralized by this act and many BJP party workers are up in arms about this.

In Bihar it seems Nitish Kumar is trying to create a bloc-within-a-bloc in the NDA.  The JD(U) concern is that the BJP is trying to polarize  the electorate to push Forward Castes and OBCs toward BJP which could then dominate the NDA in Bihar.  Nitish Kumar seems to be counter with a JD(U)-LJP-RLSP de facto alliance that seeks to reach out to Muslims and Dalits.  The undertone of JD(U) is clear.  If the BJP tries to short change JD(U) in LS 2019 and Assembly 2020 seat sharing talks then JD(U)-LJP-RLSP could counter with the threat of a third front making it BJP vs RJD-INC-HAM-NCP-LJD vs JD(U)-LJP-RLSP fight.

My take on this is that JD(U) is becoming a paper tiger and BJP will call its bluff with the result of JD(U) having to accept junior status as its voting base migrate to BJP and RJD.   As a result RLSP will get the short end of seat sharing talks and would eventually drop out of NDA and join up with UPA.

I decided to stress test my projection in case there is a Modi wave on top of the alliance structures I assumed.  I figured in a Presidential style election Modi wave NDA can gain an extra 3% vote share and overcome a 5% deficit on top of my current projection.   In such a case the BJP can win an extra 66 seats and other NDA allies 9 extra seats which would put BJP at 260 seats and NDA at 292 which would give the NDA a governing majority.

NDTV analysis of Karnataka election.  

They point out that had KJP BSRCP not split from BJP in 2013 assembly elections then the 2013 election would have been neck-to-neck between INC and BJP.
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Poll of polls has BJP losing ground to JD(S) last few months
()


Swings needed by BJP and INC to win majority relative to 2013 (assuming BJP KJP BSRCP were united)
()
()


NDTV points out that 2013 village level elections were fairly predictive of 2013 assembly elections
()

Which in turn if we look at 2018 village level elections has INC ahead but without majority
()


Some data on caste breakdown
()


Districts can be broken down to Lingayat Vokkaliga Muslim Dalit/Tribal and Mixed (mostly are on Coastal area which have some Muslims so the Hindu-Muslim conflict have salience)  
()


NDTV took the vote share average of the last 2 LS and assembly elections and look at the vote share breakdown by district type.  There is no surprise.   Lingayat districts are INC vs BJP,  Vokkaliga are INC vs JD(S) [Modi wave and anti-INC tactical voting in 2014 skews the data as to underestimate true JD(S) strength], and Muslim/Mixed seats are INC vs BJP.
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()
()

 Jan Ki Baat Republic poll has BJP ahead

               seats     vote share
INC           73            38%
BJP          105           40%
JD(S)+      43            20%
Others        3              2%

()

While ABP-CSDS has INC ahead

               seats     vote share
INC           97            38%
BJP           84            33%
JD(S)+      38            22%
Others        5              7%

()

Back in late April ABP-CSDS had BJP ahead 92 to INC 88 and only tried INC vote share wise 35% to 37%.  Seems like this poll had a small swing away from BJP and toward INC and JD(S).

In seems both polls has INC around 38%.  Key is will anti-INC forces consolidate around BJP or not.

Karnataka voting is tomorrow.  The trend the last week of the campaign seems to be a slight momentum shift toward the BJP. 

The election result will still be decided on how Lingayat and Dalit vote goes.

INC's social composition strategy is AHINDA - which is Muslims, Dalits, and OBC. INC CM Siddaramaiah being from the large OBC Kurubas is part of that strategy.  The weak leg here are some Dalit votes might leak to JD(S)-BSP or BJP

BJP's social composition strategy is Lingayat, OBC and Dalits.  Here the Lingayat vote is the main risk of going to INC due to a perception among Lingayats that BJP CM candidate and Lingayat Yeddyurappa is being sidelined by BJP high command and other BJP factions.

JD(S)-BSP is based on Vokkaliga and is trying to expand into Muslim and Dalit votes.

If INC dalit base experiences defections to BJP and JD(S) then BJP wins.  If BJP's  Lingayat base experiences defections to INC then INC wins.

BJP rigging EVMs to win elections: Shiv Sena

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/bjp-rigging-evms-to-win-elections-shiv-sena-5172852/

With allies like this who needs enemies.  SHS which already announced that in 2019 it will no longer be a BJP ally in Maharashtra and dealing a major blow to BJP chances there in 2019 when INC-NCP will be allied now has come to praise INC Rahul Gandhi and will back INC in an upcoming assembly by-election.

SHS backed INC back in the 1980s but has stayed with BJP since their alliance started in the late 1980s.  It is still far fetched but there is a small chance in 2019 we might see in Maharashtra a uber anti-INC grand alliance of INC-NCP-SHS to take on BJP.  SHS splinter NMS which was pro-Modi back in 2014 has also turned against BJP might also join in.

The main reason why SHS has gotten so negative on BJP party because of Narayan Rane.  Narayan Rane was the SHS CM of Maharashtra in the 1994-1999 SHS-BJP government.  The  he had an falling out with SHS and defected to INC.  He recently defected from INC to form his own party MSP which has allied with BJP.  SHS has asked BJP not to have any truck with Narayan Rane and was ignored.  Ever since then the SHS attacks on BJP has grown with intensity even as on paper the Maharashtra government is still a BJP-SHS one.     

Karnataka voting in progress.  As of 3pm turnout was 56% with voting ending at 5pm when exit polls will come out.

Turnout as of 5pm is 64%.  Back in 2013 it was 72% and in 2008 (which was a midterm) it was 65%.  This seems mildly positive for INC as a very high turnout would represent a anti-incumbency wave.  Main risk for INC is this could be the INC voting base having lower turnout.

NewsX exit poll has BJP advantage.

INC     76
BJP    106
JD(S)   37

()

ABP exit poll also BJP ahead

BJP    103
INC     93
JD(S)  26

()

VMR and Axis has INC ahead

VMR-Zee News
BJP      87
INC      97
JD(S)   35

Axis-India Today
BJP      86
INC    112
JD(S)   26

()

Republic TV has BJP ahead but not clear on JD(S)

BJP     105
INC      78
JD(S)   38  (it should be 32 to 43)

()

Same exit poll has vote share

INC    33.75%
BJP     36.09%
JD(S)  18.25%

()

It seems that INC's defeat in this exit poll has to do with INC vote base going to others which most likely are rebels of all types.

Updated VMR-Times Now TV has INC lead reduced (most likely herding)

INC     97
BJP     94
JD(S)  28

()

Digvijay News exit poll has it at

INC     78
BJP    105
JD(S)  33

()

Seems to be advantage BJP for several reasons

1) Exit polls tend to underestimate the main opposition party
2) Exit polls seems to be more pro-BJP than pre-election polls
3) JD(S) seat project mostly fall far short of 40 seats.  So JD(S) looks like has under-performed.  Usually when JD(S) under-performs in Karnataka that helps BJP

Summery so far

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Same exit poll has vote share

BJP    37%
INC    38%
JD(S) 19%

()

NDTV averages the 5 polls that has BJP winning and then the 3 polls that have INC winning

()

India News - Todays Chanakya has usual has the most pro-BJP exit poll

          seats    vote share
INC       73         36%
BJP      120         39%
JD(S)    26          18%

()
()

Summery of exit polls so far

()

Newsx came out with vote share breakdown by caste

It seems that Lingayat vote held up for BJP but Dalit vote swung away from INC leading to INC defeat as per this poll

()

Seats and vote share projection are
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()

Axis-India Today exit poll which has it at

BJP      86
INC    112
JD(S)   26

also has vote share of

BJP     35%
INC     39%
JD(S)  17%

()

Final turnout in Karnataka ended up being 72% which is a record and is higher than 2013's 71%.

NDTV also choose like to filter out the heavy pro-BJP house effect India News - Todays Chanakya exit poll to derive this poll of polls by dividing up the exit polls into those that give INC and edge and those that give BJP an edge.

()

Now that Karnataka exit polls are out we can do my adjusted exit polls projection


Exit poll summery

Note that only 222 out of 224 seats are voting since in 2 seats a candidate has passed away ergo no election will held.

                                                 BJP   INC   JD(S)   Others
Times Now-Today's Chanakya      120    73     26         3
News Nation                               107    73    38          4
NewsX-CNX                                106    75    37          4
Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat               105    78    37          2
Dighvijay News                           105    78    33          6
ABP News-C Voter                       103    93    25          1
Times Now-VMR                           94     97    28          3
IndiaTV-VMR                                87     97    35          3
India Today-Axis My India             85    111   26          0
Suvarna                                      85    111   26          0

Average w/o Chanakya                 97     90    32          3
Average w Chanakya                   100    88    31          3

If we look at pre-election polls which overlap with exit pollesters

NewsX-CNX                                87     90    39
Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat             105     73    43
ABP News-C Voter                      85      97    38
Times Now-VMR                         89      91    40
IndiaTV-VMR                              85      96    38

For these 5 pollsters we have

Pre-election poll                         90     89    40
Exit poll                                     99     88    32

So the trend from the exit polls is a under-performance of JD(S) and over-performance of BJP.  Since there does not seem to be a large surge toward BJP we can safely remove Today's Chanakya from the calculations.  There is also a move away from JD(S) toward BJP relative to exit polls so we should adjust for that.  There is a small setback for the ruling party (INC) relative to the last election so we should adjust for that as well.

So we should start with

Average w/o Chanakya                 97     90    32          3
exit trend away from JD(S)           +6            -6
move away from INC                   +4     -4

To get                                        BJP    INC  JD(S)   Others
                                                107    86     26         3

Which would imply a BJP government backed by JD(S) from the outside.

Exit Polls to Vex Indian Markets as Majority Seen Eluding Modi

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-13/exit-polls-to-vex-indian-markets-as-majority-seen-eluding-modi

It seems that even though the Karnataka exit polls are a bit more pro-BJP than I had expected the Indian equity markets were expecting a clear BJP victory and now there will be a selloff.  Of course the result will be coming out within 48 hours which would be another turning point for the equity markets.

Counting begins

Karnataka (out of 222)

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS
BJP                10               +2               -15             
INC               20               +1               +11
JD(S)-BSP       7               +1                +4
Others             0               -4

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Karnataka (out of 222)

Mostly postal votes

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS
BJP                26             +12               -22             
INC                31               -8                +9
JD(S)-BSP      17               +5              +13
Others             0              -12

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Karnataka (out of 222)

Mostly postal votes

JD(S) doing pretty well so far

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS
BJP                31             +16               -21             
INC                33             -11                +9
JD(S)-BSP      19              +5               +12
Others             0               -7

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Karnataka (out of 222)

Mostly postal votes
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                36             +19               -20                  44
INC                34             -15                +6                   53
JD(S)-BSP      21              +6               +14                  16
Others             0               -7

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Karnataka (out of 222)

Mostly postal votes
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                41             +20               -24                  47
INC               40              -15               +10                  61
JD(S)-BSP      22              +6               +14                  16
Others             0               -7

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Karnataka (out of 222)

Mostly postal votes
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                46             +22               -29                  81
INC               52              -11               +15                  78
JD(S)-BSP      23              +3               +14                  16
Others             0             -14

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Karnataka (out of 222)
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                57             +29               -30                  87
INC               58              -16               +10                  88
JD(S)-BSP      29              +2               +19                  22
Others             0             -15

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Karnataka (out of 222)
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                66             +34               -32                  93
INC               65              -20               +11                  88
JD(S)-BSP      31              +1               +21                  26
Others             0             -15                                         1

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Ugh come on INC

Karnataka (out of 222)

Some real results now.  Despite exit polls JD(S) is doing better than expected.  BJP with slight edge over INC.
 
                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                82             +47               -37                  98
INC                78             -32               +12                  91
JD(S)-BSP      34              +3               +24                  26
Others             1              -18                +1                    0

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Karnataka (out of 222)

Some real results now.  Bad news for INC seems to be JD(S) doing well against INC in INC-JD(S) marginals but not doing well in INC-BJP marginals which helps BJP.  On the other hand it seems neither BJP nor INC would cross 100 on current trends which is early.

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                87             +49               -37                  98
INC                78             -36                 +9                  88
JD(S)-BSP      38              +6               +27                  29
Others             1              -19                +1                    0

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Karnataka (out of 222)

Unofficial source has JD(S) making a massive surge and BJP also above 100.

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                87             +49               -39                 101
INC                84             -33               +13                  68
JD(S)-BSP      40              +4               +25                  45
Others             1              -21                +1                    2

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Why does the world keep voting for Right-wing nut jobs...

()

Anyways, jaichind, you're the guru here. Do you think the BJP will come out of this with a majority?

Karnataka (out of 222)


                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP                93             +54               -35                 101
INC                82             -36                 +8                  76
JD(S)-BSP      41              +3               +26                  44
Others             1              -21                +1                    2

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Most likely.  BJP will be ahead of INC.  I am still suspicious that JD(S) will do as well as they are doing now.  Battle now is can BJP cross 100 seats.

Note that INC is keeping this close is actually quite an accomplishment.  I think INC will end up winning more seats than any other ruling party running for re-election in Karnataka since the 1970s.

Karnataka (out of 222)

Wow.  INC falling far behind in unofficial count.   Official count converging toward unofficial count. Question now is will BJP gave a majority on its own.

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP               106            +67               -23                 105
INC                70             -50                 -7                  70
JD(S)-BSP      43              +3               +28                  45
Others             2              -20                +2                    2

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Karnataka (out of 222)
 
JD(S) is doing very well.

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP               104            +65               -26                  97
INC                71             -50                 -6                   65
JD(S)-BSP      45              +5               +30                  44
Others             2              -20                +2                    2

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

If BJP gets a majority then there is a solid chance that Modi might call an early LS election before risking MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh in Dec.

Karnataka (out of 222)
 
JD(S) strong performance. If this holds then the BSP alliance was a masterstroke as it seems that it got a swing of Dalit votes from INC to JD(S).  INC's failure to get  an alliance with JD(S) seems like a mistake although usually a ruling party that forms an alliance with an opposition party to stop an another opposition party usually does not work.

Usually the leading party gains seats toward the end so it seems the BJP has a better than 75% chance with a majority on its own.

                   Seats          vs 2013    vs 2014 LS         Unofficial Source
BJP               106            +67               -24                 102
INC                69             -52                 -8                   65
JD(S)-BSP      45              +5               +30                  45
Others             2              -20                +2                    2

Out of 224 in 2013 it was
INC  122
BJP    40
JD(S) 40

Out of 224 assembly segments in 2014 it was
INC     77
BJP    132
JD(S)  15

Vote share so far is

BJP            38.2%
INC            37.6%
JD(S)-BSP  17.7%

If BJP can beat the INC in terms of vote share then it is on target to win a majority on its own for sure.  Of course INC's vote share so far is higher than in 2013.    JD(S)-BSP vote share is lower than in 2013.  Makes me somewhat suspicious that JD(S) can really hold on to the seats it is ahead in.

It seems the count later in the day went INC's way and that BJP will fall short of majority
               
                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              62        42       104         36.2%
INC             30         37        77          37.9%
JD(S)-BSP   12         26        38          18.7%
KPJP            1                       1
Ind                           1          1

In a shock, INC came out to support JD(S) to form the government to block BJP to deny BJP any momentum for 2019 LS elections.  INC claims that Rahul Gandhi has contacted JD(S) supremo Deve Gowda who has accepted its offer to back JD(S) to form a government under JD(S)'s Kumaraswamy.  There has been no confirmation of this from JD(S).  BJP is crying fowl.

It seems the Ind. that is leading is an INC backed independent so if you add that to INC+ so far it is

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              73        31       104         36.3%
INC+           43        36        79          38.0%
JD(S)-BSP   19         19        38          18.7%
KPJP            1                       1            0.2%

Note that vote share has NOTA which is 0.9%.

JD(S) has publicly confirmed it has accepted INC's offer of support.  Unless BJP makes surge of gains in terms of seat it seems is locked out.  I am sure BSP's anti-BJP position due to tbe SP-BSP alliance in UP is playing a role since JD(S) performance is partly due to BSP support.

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              77        27       104         36.3%
INC+           46        33        79          38.0%
JD(S)-BSP   24         14        38          18.8%
KPJP            1                       1            0.2%

It seems KPJP will back INC-JD(S)-BSP.   BSP has 1 out of 38 JD(S)-BSP.  INC CM Siddaramaiah has resigned now it is clear that INC will not get a majority.  INC and JD(S) plans to visit Governor soon to ask to form government.  In theory the Governor has to go with the largest pre-poll alliance which would be BJP.  What JD(S) Kumaraswamy has to do is to give letters of support to the Governor by the INC and JD(S) MLAs for him to invite JD(S) instead of BJP.

India Sensex index falls 1.3% from peak when it seemed that BJP will get a majority to now when it seems that JD(S) is likely to form government.

This election result is similar to 2004.

As I mentioned before, INC's performance is actually quite impressive.  INC won the most seats as the incumbent party of any other Karnataka election since the 1985 which itself was fairly unique midterm election.

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              78        26       104         36.1%
INC+           50        29        79          38.0%
JD(S)-BSP   25         13        38          18.8%
KPJP            1                       1            0.2%

This is is the highest vote share the BJP has ever achieved in a Karnataka assembly election.  This is the highest vote share for INC+ in a Karnataka assembly election since 1999.

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              92        12       104         36.2%
INC+           78          8        79          38.1%
JD(S)-BSP    38          0        38          18.7%
KPJP             1                       1           0.2%

These seats counts are does not seem consistent with vote shares.  If JD(S)-BSP is at 18.7% then I would expect them to be in the 25-30 seat range and not 38, especially when INC+ is at 38.1%.  There must have been significant BJP->JD(S) tactical voting.  Also BJP seems to have done well in the Vokkaliga dominated Southern Karnataka where it ate into JD(S) vote share even as JD(S) won over INC in 3 way JD(S)-INC-BJP battles.

In the meantime BJP is now rushing to try to get JD(S) to ally with BJP.  Unlikely to succeed unless BJP is willing to part with the CM seat to JD(S)  

It is clear what the INC strategy is behind backing JD(S) to form the government.

1) Stop any media narrative on BJP momentum so Modi cannot go for midterm elections.  Live to fight later in 2018 in MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh where INC is sure to win Rajasthan, 50/50 in Chhattisgarh, and INC chances looking brighter in MP.  If INC can defeat BJP in late 2018 assembly elections then the narrative in 2019 would favor INC.

2) Get a INC Dalit DCM to woo Dalits which is critical for 2019 for the anti-BJP bloc.

3) A TRS led Third front with TDP, JD(S) and potentially with AITC third front would be a threat to the INC leadership of the anti-BJP bloc in 2019.  Getting an alliance with JD(S) would serve to isolate TRS.

Despite number INC and BJP rebels it seems none of them won.  Typically in Karnataka assembly elections 5-15 rebels of all types win.  This time none of them won.  Speaks to the INC-BJP polarization with JD(S) running a strong campaign.

In seems INC is backing Swaraj India(SWJI) which is a AAP splinter in one of the seats.  So we should add their votes to the INC+ vote share.  So the INC+ vote share lead over BJP is now 2.2%

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              93        11       104         36.2%
INC+           73          6        79          38.4%
JD(S)-BSP    38          0        38          18.7%
KPJP             1                       1           0.2%

INC CM Siddaramaiah loses in one of the two seats he is contesting, JD(S) bastion Chamundeshwari which is his old seat when he was in JD(S).

It is

JD(S)  54.0%
INC     38.0%
BJP       5.4%

It seems that here the BJP base tactically voted JD(S) to embarrass Siddaramaiah.

Looks like BJP will get at most 104 seats ... not enough to block JD(S)-INC.

                 Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP              97          7       104         36.2%
INC+           76          3        79          38.4%
JD(S)-BSP    38          0        38          18.7%
KPJP             1                       1           0.2%

Looks like a few seats are left and they gave up for now ...

                Won   Leading   Total      Vote share
BJP            100          4       104         36.2%
INC+           79                    79          38.4%  (INC 78 Pro-INC Ind. 1)
JD(S)-BSP    38                    38          18.7%  (JD(S) 37 BSP 1)
KPJP             1                       1           0.2%

If you take NDTV's analysis of 2013 results IF BJP KJP and BRSCP were united and take into account that out of the 11 OTHER in 2013 it is 4 INC rebels and 5 BJP rebels you get a net swing of

BJP           +12 seats
INC+         -17 seats
JD(S)-BSP   +4 seats

From a vote share point of view (if we take BJP 2013 as BJP+KJP+BSRCP) it is

BJP           +3.7%
INC+         +1.8%
JD(S)-BSP  -2.4%

Which make this election a mostly status quo election with a small swing toward BJP relative to 2013
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It seems Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat exit poll mostly nailed it.

JD(S)-BSP clearly over-performed in terms of seats relative to vote share.  A comparison versus 2008 has both BJP and INC+ over-performing 2008 vote shares and JD(S)-BSP under-performing 2008 JD(S) vote shares but JD(S) gets more seats in 2018 and both BJP and INC+ gets less seats.

*Sigh of relief*

All done.  Note vote share has NOTA in it that will have to filtered out when computing effective vote share.

                Won     Vote share
BJP            104         36.2%
INC+           79         38.4%  (INC 78 Pro-INC Ind. 1)
JD(S)-BSP    38         18.6%  (JD(S) 37 BSP 1)
KPJP             1            0.2%

Now the Karnataka governor (pro-BJP)  has a decision to make.  Should he invite the largest party (BJP) or should he invite a post-election alliance of INC and JD(S).  if he goes with the former then BJP can use all sorts of financial inducements to get defections from both INC and JD(S) where the MLA will then resign and run for re-election as the BJP candidate. 

This is what took place in 2008 when the BJP won 110 out 224 seats and was invited the form the government.  Of course back in 2008 there was no real post-election deal between INC and JD(S) to form the government as they did not have the numbers either. 

As a precaution JD(S) is already putting their MLA in a resort and most likely limit cell phone usage.  INC I suspect will do the same soon. 

Pro-BJP Karnataka governor invites BJP as the largest party to form the government.  He gives BJP 15 days to prove its majority which is rather large going by history.  This seems to give BJP a lot of time to poach for defections from INC and JD(S).   INC and JD(S) has escalated this to the Supreme Court and a a three-judge bench of the Supreme Court will hear the INC-JD(S) case. 

Not sure why BJP is doing this.  The goal of BJP forming the government in Karnataka is to create a media momentum of the BJP victory narrative.  By forming a government through defections takes away from the narrative an merely forces the INC and JD(S) base to combine in 2019 against BJP.  JD(S) has some strength in Maharashtra and doing this merely means JD(S) in Maharashtra will also join up with INC-NCP in the upcoming LS elections.

What the BJP should do is to let JD(S) form the government.  As the larger of the two parties various elements of INC will eventually find this problematic and that will hurt INC-JD(S) in 2019 at the grassroots level and the JD(S)-INC government might even fall apart before 2019. 

In Karnataka Now that the BJP CM Yeddyurappa has been installed he as 2 weeks to prove his majority.  The seat distribution is

BJP               104
Pro-INC Ind.     1
KPJP                2
INC                78
BSP                  1
JD(S)              37

BJP has to get to 112 since one BJP MLA will have to be the Speaker.  It seems 2 INC MLA are already AWOL and most likely have defected to the BJP.  The Pro-INC Ind. seems to be going back and forth.

The rest of the INC MLAs are in a luxury resort.  All their smart phone have a special INC app installed that will monitor all incoming and outgoing phone calls.  I suspect JD(S) has something similar set up.

Based on what the prices various JD(S) MLA have been quoted from the BJP, the price the BJP seems to be willing to pay for a MLAis around $17 million.  Since BJP needs 8 MLAS (10 MLAs to be certain) it seems that the BJP budget for this government formation phase is around $170 million.  Small peanuts compared to the potential monetary benefits for the key BJP kingpins.

BJP has destroyed democracy, says Shiv Sena

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2018/05/17/bjp-has-destroyed-democracy-says-shiv-sena.html

Again. So called BJP ally SHS came out against BJP in the Karnataka crisis.  Of course all this could be one massive ruse to set up a situation where to get SHS to come back into the NDA fold the BJP will have to accept being the junior partner in Maharashtra the next election cycle. Something the BJP will not accept so SHS has to come out with a very negative tone publicly to make sure that the BJP  knows that SHS means business.   

Prelim Karnataka 2018 assembly election (only 222 out of 224 seats voted)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

INC+         222                79             38.75%   (SWJI was part of INC+)

INC rebel                          0              1.03%

JD(S)+      217                38             18.79%  (BSP was part of JD(S)

JS(S) rebel                       0               0.18%

BJP          222               104             36.57%

BJP rebel                         0               0.71%

KPJP          30                 1                0.21%

Which is not too far away from my adjusted exit poll based seat projection algorithm

In fact given the vote shares my seat projection would be what one would expect.  It seems there must have been some BJP->JD(S) tactical voting to explain this.  Looking at the seats that JD(S) won over INC by narrow margins one does notice that in most of them the BJP vote share is lower than the 2013 BJP+ bloc (BJP KJP BSRCP BJP rebels) in an election when the BJP bloc rose which sorts of validates my theory.

If one takes 2013 election results and group vote share by blocs: INC+ (INC plus rebels), BJP+(BJP, KJP BSRCP BJP rebels) and JD(S)-BSP (JD(S) BSP JD(S) rebels) the 2013 to 2018 vote share shift are:

INC bloc:     +1.36%
BJP bloc:     +3.04%
JD(S) bloc:   -2.72%

So relative to 2013 the BJP bloc gains are fairly minor relative to INC bloc which given Karnataka's record of voting out incumbents since the 1980s is a pretty good performance by INC. It seems what did INC in was two factors a) Dalit vote swing toward JD(S)-BSP in INC-BJP marginals helped BJP and b) BJP tactical voting for JD(S) in several INC-JD(S) marginals.

Indian Supreme court ruled that the new BJP government must face a floor test this Sat instead of 2 weeks from now.  Also the floor test must be a open vote and not a secret ballot.  All things equal most likely BJP will not be able to rustle up enough INC and JD(S) defectors in time although BJP claims that at least 12 INC and JD(S) MLAs are in touch with them to defect.  Of course the Indian Anti-Defection Law means that any such defection would mean disqualification and these MLAs will have to run for by-election on the BJP ticket.

Karnataka BJP CM Yeddyurappa resigns ahead of floor test.  BJP clearly does not have the numbers.

Ahh, wonderful, trying to win over a majority the traditional Indian way, bribery.

Seriously though, is what the BJP doing even legal?

Well, the bribing part would not be legal although BJP will deny that.  The on the surface controversy is a Karnataka Governor who was a BJP MP asking the largest party, BJP, to form a government despite the fact that an post-election alliance of INC and JD(S) have a majority.  While this decision is  problematic it is not illegal.  The governor has discretion to invite who he or she feels would give the state stable government.  The governor also gets state the time frame of a trust vote (15 days) and to appoint a Speaker (on a temp basis) (in this a BJP one) that can decide the type of trust vote (voice or secret ballot.)  Nothing that is done above the table is illegal but clearly biased to help in the bribing of MLAs to support a party that does not have a majority.  In the Supreme Court came in pretty much said the same thing and forced a trust vote in 48 hours without a secret ballot.

Now that the Karnataka BJP government has fallen, INC and JD(S) can get to the hard bargaining for power.  INC for caste balance reasons are asking for 2 INC DCM, one Dalit and one Lingayat or Muslim. JD(S) only wants to create one while the INC  Lingayat and Muslim factions are battling it out to see if there is a second DCM from which commuity it would come from.  Both INC Lingayat or Muslim factions  are claiming that if their bloc does not get a DCM position then their community will abandon INC in the 2019 LS elections.

In many ways if INC-JD(S) were to form a pre-election alliance in Karnataka in 2019 LS elections it might be had for BJP short run but might be very positive for BJP's growth in Southern Karnataka.   The Vokkaliga vote which are with JD(S) are a landowning Upper Caste group which would normally vote BJP.  But JD(S) has held on to this voting bloc because of the perception that JD(S) is the Vokkaliga party.  If JD(S) were to form an alliance with INC which represents Dalits, Mulims and lower OBCs this could push the Vokkaliga vote to the BJP and lay the basis of BJP being competitive in Southern Karnataka on the long run. 

JD(S)'s HD Kumaraswamy to be sworn in as Karnataka CM on Wed.  INC JD(S) haggling continuing with INC demanding two INC DCM, one Dalit and one Lingayat (I guess the idea of a Muslim DCM is gone which makes since INC can gamble that Muslims have no choice but to vote for the largest anti-BJP party which in Karnataka is INC.)  INC will get Speaker role which gives the INC the upper hand in any future INC-JD(S) split and INC needs to get defections from JD(S) to form a government on its own.

It also seems that INC and JD(S) has agreed to contest 2019 LS election in Karnataka as allies.  JD(S) also likely to join INC-NCP alliance in Maharashtra where it has some presence.  

A bunch of by-elections coming up that will test opposition unity against BJP.   Voting will be May 28th and counting will be May 31st.

The most key one is UP Kairana LS seat where the BJP MP passed away and the BJP will run his daughter.   All opposition parties (SP BSP INC AAP) will back RLD who nominated a ex-BSP MP Muslim.

In 2014 LS it was

BJP    50.6%
SP     29.4%
BSP   14.3%   
RLD    3.8% (backed by INC)

My current model based on 2014 results plus some implied swings for this eat for 2019 which also assumed that this seat will go to SP under a SP-BSP-RLD alliance with INC tactically withdrawing has it at

BJP    50.8%
SP      46.4%

This seat has a relatively high concentration of Jats which went to BJP in 2014 due to Jat-Muslim communal rioting.  RLD's strategy of nominating a Muslim candidate to demonstrate to its future allies (SP BSP INC) that it now has regained its hold over Jat votes that the RLD label can get Jat votes to vote RLD despite a Muslim candidate.  The 2017 assembly elections seems to indicate that the RLD Jat is coming back a bit.  If you take the 5 assembly segments and add up the votes it comes out to

BJP        38.2%
SP-INC   21.6%
BSP       18.5%
SP           4.2%
INC         5.5%
SP rebel   2.8%
RLD         7.6%

Which if you allocate SP-INC vote 75/25 to SP and INC you get implied relative strength of
 
BJP        38.2%
BSP       18.5%
SP         23.2%
INC        10.9%
RLD         7.6%

Where it seems some of the BJP Jat vote of 2014 has gone back to RLD.

One should also assume some sympathy factor for the BJP daughter of the deceased BJP MP so this result is up in the air.  If RLD can win then it proves both the ability of the opposition to combine its votes as well as its ability to beat by the BJP's main narrative that the Opposition, especially the INC, are the Muslim party.





Then there is the Maharashtra Palghar LS seat where the BJP MP has passed away.  BJP will field a recent INC ex-MLA defector while SHS has jumped into the race and nominated the son of the deceased BJP MP.  In 2014 it was

BJP    53.7%   backed by SHS
BVA   29.6%   backed by INC-NCP
CPM    7.7%

BVA has since defected to join BJP bloc which should give BJP the edge.  But the SHS jumping in with the son of the deceased BJP MP has made this by-election a difficult battle for BJP.  INC will also run with NCP backing.

My 2019 model for this seat has BVA running for NDA, NCP running with INC support and SHS running separately and has it at a close 3 way battle

BVA    31.7%
NCP    27.7%
SHS    26.8%
CPM      7.1%

If you look at the 2014 assembly segments for Palghar when BJP SHS INC and NCP blocs ran separately you get

BJP    21.2%
SHS   23.1%
INC     8.4%
NCP+ 35.2%  (BVA was allied with NCP and one can argue 65% of this support is for BVA)
CPM    5.9%

But in a jolt for BJP, now BJP ally BVA will also run.  So if you use the assembly election segment results from 2014 and assume 65% of NCP+ vote are for BVA you get very close 4 way race.

BJP     21.2%
SHS    23.1%
BVA    22.9%
INC     20.7%  (backed by NCP)
CPM     5.9%

One can argue that SHS should have the edge given the additional edge of the sympathy factor of running the deceased BJP MP's son.  The family of the deceased BJP MP has completely gone over to SHS and are now denouncing the BJP.  This race will also be fun to watch to see how the result will come out.

Picture of JD(S)'s HD Kumaraswamy swearing in ceremony in Karnataka that should have BJP somewhat worried.   Ancient rivals like INC and TDP, AITC and CPM, SP and BSP on the same stage at the same time.

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Not captured is AITC's Mamata Banerjee and TDP's Naidu which are here
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Missing is TRS's KCR who is now isolated.  TRS's position is that in Telangana INC is its current main enemy of today but BJP is the enemy of tomorrow. So TRS's goal is a non-INC non-BJP third front.  With JD(S) lining up with INC this position is a non-starter.  It will now be INC-Third Front alliance to take on Modi in 2019.  Other than BJD which is in a similar situation, TRS will fight a lonely battle against both.

Latest CSDS National Survey seems to generate results similar to my current model

http://www.lokniti.org/pdf/Lokniti-ABP-News-Mood-of-the-Nation-Survey-Round-3-May-2018.pdf

It has (different from Jan 2018)

BJP           32 (-2)
BJP allies    5 (-1)
INC          25 (--)
INC allies    6 (+1)
BSP            4 (+1)
BSP allies   6 (+2)  (SP JD(S) INLD)
Left            3 (--)
Others      19 (-1)

My current model has
BJP          31.8%
BJP allies   3.9%
INC          21.5%
INC allies   7.5% (I really have 9.3% but that includes 1.8% for TDP which I predict will be INC ally)
BSP           4.2%
BSP allies   4.7% (using SP JD(S) INLD)
Left Front   3.9%

My current model BJP+ and INC+ numbers mostly match the survey.

Breakdown by region is similar to my as well

East
BJP+  43  (--)
INC+  25 (+4)

West and Central
BJP+  48 (--)
INC+  43 (+3)

North
BJP+  39 (-6)
INC+  21 (-1)

South
BJP+  18 (-7)
INC+  38 (-1)

Where BJP+ is very strong in the West relative to 2014 just like my model.  Whey my model diverge from the poll is it has BJP+ losing ground in North India whereas by model has the same but my model has grand alliances in UP (SP BSP INC RLD ..) driving voters that do not like this alliance to BJP.  

What is concerning to BJP is the following question: Modi government should be given another chance in government

Yes 39 No 47.  To be fair regional wise it does not look as bad
South:                 24/53
North                   44/45
West and Central: 44/49
East:                    46/40

BJP+ could gain a lot seats in the East and squeeze out some victories in the North West and Central areas to get a small majority.

PM preference is also looking better for Rahul Gandhi
Modi      34 (-3)
Gandhi   24(+4)

Satisfied with Modi government:
Yes   47 (-4)
No    47 (+7)

Andhra Pradesh  26(-9)/68
Bihar                 69(+7/29
Gujarat              55(-2)/40
Karnataka          50(-1)/45
Kerala                28(+4)/64
Madhya Pradesh 48(-6)/46
Maharashtra       51(-5)/47
Odisha               63(-3)/28
Rajasthan          57(-2)/37
Tamil Nadu        19(-14)/75
Uttar Pradesh    49(-6)/44
West Bengal      44(-2)/45
Telangana          29(NA)/63

It seems Bihar is going well for Modi although alliance problems could cause problems for NDA and BJP can look forward to making gains in Odisha.  Several key Northern states are on the edge (UP MP and Rajasthan)

Another LS by-election in May 28th is Maharastra's Bhandara - Gondiya.  Here the BJP MP who was in INC but defected to BJP and won in 2014 on the BJP ticket.  Recently this BJP MP defected back to INC and resigned his seat.  In 2014 it was

BJP     50.6% (backed by SHS)
NCP     38.2% (backed by INC)
BSP       4.3%

Since this seat was allocated to NCP in 2014 the INC decides not to field the now incumbent INC MP.  SHS and BSP both will not contest so the race will be BJP vs NCP.   SHS is still deciding if it will support BJP NCP or stay neutral.

My 2019 model for this seat has it at

NCP    40.6% (backed by INC)
BJP     33.1%
SHS    15.0%

Using 2014 assembly segment results you get for this seat

BJP    34.3%
SHS   11.3%
INC    18.4%
NCP   18.3%
BSP    10.7%

So BJP support and INC-NCP support are similar.  The by-election will be decided by how the SHS and BSP vote goes.  The BJP will run a SHS defector who was in the BJP in 2014 before defecting to SHS because he was not given a ticket to contest in the 2014 assembly elections.  BSP vote will most likely go NCP given recent problems the BJP has had with the Dalits.

CSDS National Survey has other breakdowns of LS election by key states.  MP and Rajasthan which are coming up later in 2018 are problematic for BJP

MP  
INC    50
BJP    40

Rajasthan
INC    44
BJP    39

With MP being a surprise.  Rajasthan is about where I think it will be (before the Modi campaign kicks into gear and pushes up the BJP vote share) but that the BJP is that far behind in MP is a surprise.

Other states are

UP (big trouble for BJP and that BJP is this low is unexpected and if INC joins up with SP-BSP then BJP will face total wipe-out in UP)
BJP       35
INC       12
SP-BSP  53

Bihar (unexpected lead of BJP despite on the ground reports of a RJD-INC surge)
BJP+     60
INC+     34

Maharashtra  (problem here is SHS will almost certainly run separately so INC-NCP at 40 is bad for BJP)
BJP+    48
INC+    40

Gujarat (sounds about right)
BJP     54
INC     42

WB (looks about right with BJP being the main alternative to AITC pushing aside INC and Left Front)
AITC    44
BJP      24

Overall it has BJP+ at 274.  But that assumes SHS does not split off in Maharashtra which is very likely and will cost BJP at least a dozen seats.
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All India voting intentions relative to prev polls
()

As mentioned before "Give Modi another chance" came out to 39/47 the poll has it broken down by community shows a BJP Upper Caste-OBC counter-consolidation against the opposition Muslim-Dalit consolidation could still be effective
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In Nagaland there will be a LS by-election to replace Neiphiu Rio who defected from NPF to form NDPP and captured power in Nagaland in an alliance with the BJP in a close race with NPF.

INC will now back its ancient rival NPF to battle against NPF.  On paper the election is NDPP vs NPF but it is really INC vs INC.  The NPF and NDPP candidates were both INC MLAs elected in 2013 and defected to NPF in 2015.  Both were re-elected in 2018 on the NDPP and NPF ticket but just 3 years ago both were INC MLA in opposition to the NPF government.

Of course now INC is a shell of itself even 3 years ago with NDPP-BJP and NPF pretty much taking over political space in Nagaland.  INC will have to capture power at the federal level to be relevant in Nagaland again. 

By-polls in progress.  There seems to reports of fairly large scale EVM malfunction.  Opposition parties claims that the BJP fix is in by having EVM berak down in areas of Dalit or Muslim areas to reduce turnout there. 

It would be useful to count the number of MLA that BJP, BJP allies and other pro-BJP (relatively) have as I think we are reaching peak BJP.  The next cycle of assembly election results will most likely lead to losses by the BJP in terms of MLAs.

If you go with

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India)

Out of 4120 seats BJP has 1518, BJP allies 352.  If you add in other pro-BJP parties like AIADMK, YSRCP, AINRC, NUZP and BVA it is another 178.   So pro-BJP bloc is has 2043 out of 4091 seats (29 are vacant) which is exactly around half of the seats.

I suspect this is the peak of what the BJP can accomplish.  They are almost certain to lose seats in MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh assembly elections later this year.   In 2019 I seem likely they will lose seats in AP, perhaps make minor gains in  Telangana, most likely lose a bunch of  seats in Arunachal Pradesh (having 57 out of 60 means you can only go down), make good gains in Odisha, most likely lose seats in Maharashtra, Haryana, J&K, and Jharkhand.

It might at least a couple of election cycles before the BJP can get to this peak again.

By election result out.  Mostly a setback for BJP.  The LS ones are (rough vote share estimate which does not take minor candidates into account so will be overestimated)

UP Kairana
RLD   53.3%
BJP    46.7%

In 2014 LS it was

BJP    50.6%
SP     29.4%
BSP   14.3%   
RLD    3.8% (backed by INC)

A 2017 assembly segment guesstimate of support by part are
BJP        38.2%
BSP       18.5%
SP         23.2%
INC        10.9%
RLD         7.6%

Combined SP-BSP-INC-RLD alliance defeated BJP despite some defection to BJP relative to 2017 results.  Jat and Mulsim vote were able to consolidate in favor of RLD.  BJP loses seat


Maharashtra Palghar

BJP    31.3%
SHS   27.9%
BVA   25.6%
CPM    9.7%
INC     5.5%  (backed by NCP)

Back in 2014 it was

BJP    53.7%   backed by SHS
BVA   29.6%   backed by INC-NCP
CPM    7.7%

A 2014 assembly segment result has

BJP    21.2%
SHS   23.1%
INC     8.4%
NCP+ 35.2%  (BVA was allied with NCP and one can argue 65% of this support is for BVA)
CPM    5.9%

So if you use the assembly election segment results from 2014 and assume 65% of NCP+ vote are for BVA you get very close 4 way race.

BJP     21.2%
SHS    23.1%
BVA    22.9%
INC     20.7%  (backed by NCP)
CPM     5.9%

So the result is that BJP getting an local INC kingpin to defect and run was a good move.  BJP's core vote plus some of the INC vote got BJP the victory and allows BJP to retain the seat.  Also some of INC-NCP vote went over to CPM.



Maharastra's Bhandara - Gondiya

NCP   51.3%  (backed by INC)
BJP    46.7%

Back in 2014 it was

BJP     50.6% (backed by SHS)
NCP     38.2% (backed by INC)
BSP       4.3%

Using 2014 assembly segment results you get estimates of support for this seat

BJP    34.3%
SHS   11.3%
INC    18.4%
NCP   18.3%
BSP    10.7%

Here it seems NCP was able to pick up BSP's Dalit base support to defeat BJP


In Nagaland it is

NDPP   58.3% (backed by BJP)
NPF     41.7% (backed in INC)

NDPP wins given the need for Nagaland to align with the central government

Assembly by-elections were a defeat of BJP across the board which I will post later.

Some official assembly by-election results

UP Noorpur - death of BJP MLA whose daughter is contesting so there will be a sympathy factor
SP      50.5%  (backed by BSP INC RLD PECP MD)
BJP     47.5%

2017 assembly
BJP     39.0%
SP      32.7%  (backed by INC)
BSP    22.6%
MD      2.6%
RLD     1.1%

2014 LS assembly segment
BJP     41.8%
BSP    26.9%
SP      24.0%
PSEP    3.9%
MD       1.2%  (backed by INC)

The opposition consolidation worked but there was clearly some vote leakage over to BJP partly because of sympathy factor and also ruling parties tend to do better in assembly by-polls.


WB Maheshtala
AITC      59.1%
BJP        23.7%
CPM       17.1%  (tactic support from INC)

In 2016 it was
AITC      48.6%
CPM       42.2% (backed by INC)
BJP          7.7%

2014 LS assembly segment
AITC      38.3%
CPM       33.9%
BJP        18.0%
INC         6.6%

WB moving toward a bi-polar state of AITC vs BJP with Left Front-INC driven to a weaker and weaker third place.



Meghalaya Ampati - INC CM from before the 2018 assembly elections ran in two seats and had to vacate one of them after winning both
INC     56.1%
NPP     42.7%

2018 assembly election
INC   64.2%
BJP   33.7%

2014 LS assembly segment
INC    70.2%
NPP    29.8%

This is an INC stronghold so INC winning was expected.  NPP did close the gap mostly due to ruling parties doing better in assembly by-elections as well as the INC CM not running in the seat.



Punjab Shahkot
INC      62.5%
SAD     33.2% (backed by BJP)
AAP       1.4%

Back in 2017 it was
SAD     34.7% (backed by BJP)
INC      31.0%
AAP      30.3%

In 2014 LS assembly segment
SAD     41.2%  (backed by BJP)
AAD     25.8%
INC      25.2%

INC did well because the ruling party always does better in assembly by-elections but also because SAD has really not recovered yet from the 2017 blow as well as total collapse of the AAP vote.

SHS is crying foul on Palghar LS by-election results saying that the count has irregularities.  The SHS goal is to show that without SHS, BJP cannot win.  In this case SHS ran and despite coming in second failed to prevent a BJP win due to BJP winning over part of the INC vote.

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/mumbai/other/shiv-sena-urges-ec-not-to-declare-the-palghar-bypoll-result-alleges-irregularities-in-counting-of-votes/articleshow/64402905.cms

More official results

Uttarakhand assembly Tharali - death of BJP MLA.  Widow ran so there will be the sympathy vote
BJP         49.0%
INC         45.3%

2017 assembly
BJP          44.1%
INC          35.7%
BJP rebel  12.1%

2014 LS assembly segment
BJP         58.1%
INC         33.6%

BJP won but this result is fairly problematic for BJP.   The incumbent advantage in assembly by-elections plus the sympathy for the widow still led to INC closing the gap more than 2017 let alone 2014.   



Maharashtra LS Palghar  - death of BJP MP, but SHS nominating BJP MP's son
BJP         31.4%
SHS        28.0%
BVA        25.6%
CPM          8.3%
INC           5.5%  (backed by NCP)

If you take the 2014 assembly segments you have
BJP    21.2%
SHS   23.1%
INC     8.4%
NCP+ 35.2%  (BVA was allied with NCP and one can argue 65% of this support is for BVA)
CPM    5.9%

which  if you break up BVA and NCP with 65/35 split you get
BJP     21.2%
SHS    23.1%
BVA    22.9%
INC     20.7%  (backed by NCP)
CPM     5.9%

In 2014 LS it was
BJP    53.7%   backed by SHS
BVA   29.6%   backed by INC-NCP
CPM    7.7%

Clearly I some of the NCP based which was allied with BVA before BVA went over to BJP still voted BVA which cost INC.  BJP nominating an INC defector also got some of the INC based to come over even as SHS got some of the BJP base with the son of the deceased BJP MP as its candidate.  Seeing that INC has no hope to win some INC voters went over to CPM.  BJP won the battle of defections on this one and shows a way out for BJP to win in 2019 Maharashtra LS elections even if SHS were to run separately. 

More official results

Jharkhand Gomia assembly - existing JMM MLA convicted of a series crime and removed as MLA
JMM     34.6%  (backed by INC and JVM)
AJSU    33.9%
BJP      24.0%

2014 aseembly
JMM      55.3%
BJP       34.1%  (backed by AJSU)
INC        2.2%
JVM        1.1%

2014 LS assembly segment
JMM      36.1%  (backed by INC)
BJP       34.1%
AJSU     15.7%
JD(U)     3.7%
JVM        2.8%

JMM has headwinds here because the ruling party usually does better in by-elections plus the issue of the JMM MLA being convinced of a crime and removed.  It seems BJP and AJSU threw away a chance to capture the seat from JMM by not joining forces in this JMM stronghold.  With backing from INC and JVM, JMM was able to hold on to the seat.


Jharkhand Silli assembly - existing JMM MLA convicted of a series crime and removed as MLA
JMM       53.1%  (backed by INC and JVM)
AJSU      43.8%  (backed by BJP)

2014 assembly result
JMM      55.7%
AJSU     34.9%  (backed by BJP)
CPM       2.3%
INC        1.6%
JVM        0.7%

2014 LS assembly segment
AJSU     40.4%
BJP       19.3%
JVM      18.2%
INC         7.4% (backed by JMM)
CPM        3.3%

JMM has headwinds here because the ruling party usually does better in by-elections plus the issue of the JMM MLA being convinced of a crime and removed.  JMM with backing from INC and JVM beat back AJSU who actually its President.  Overall this result bodes well for the JMM-INC-JVM grand alliance in 2019 LS elections in Jharkhand.

Other official results

Nagaland LS
NDPP        58.6%  (backed by BJP NPP JD(U)
NPF          41.4%  (backed by INC)

2018 assembly elections
NDPP-BJP  40.5%
NPF          38.8%
NPP           6.9%
JD(U)        4.5%
INC           2.1%

2014 LS
NPF          68.8%  (backed by BJP)
INC          30.2%

Results mostly along the lines of the assembly election.  INC totally marginalized and need to ally with NPF to survive even as a tier 2 party against NDP splinter NDPP along with BJP NPP and JD(U)



Maharashtra Bhandara-Gondiya LS - SHS mostly neutral
NCP      46.9% (backed by INC)
BJP       41.8%
BBM       4.3%

2014 assembly segments
BJP    34.3%
SHS   11.3%
INC    18.4%
NCP   18.3%
BSP    10.7%

2014 LS
BJP    50.6% (backed by SHS)
NCP   38.2% (backed by INC)
BSP    4.3%

BBM won some of the the BSP vote.  It seems NCP won the INC vote and also took some of the BSP vote which defeated BJP which only got part of the SHS vote.



UP Kairana - death of BJP MP whose daughter is running on the BJP ticket
RLD   51.5%  (backed in SP-BSP-INC-MD-PECP)
BJP    46.7%

2014 assembly segments assuming SP-INC vote is split 75/25
BJP     38.2%
BSP    18.5%
SP      23.2%
INC     10.9%
RLD      7.6%

2014 LS
BJP    50.6%
SP     29.4%
BSP   14.3%   
RLD    3.8% (backed by INC)

The Jat vote which sent to BJP in 2014 due to Jat-Muslim riots somewhat returned in 2017 back to RLD.  RLD ran a Muslim more to test the ability to consolidate Jat-Muslim-Dalit vote even with a Muslim candidate.  The experiment worked even as the BJP gain vote relative to the 2017 benchmark due to RLD Muslim candidate plus sympathy factor.

More official results

Bihar Jokihat assembly - JD(U) MLA defected to RJD and ran for LS seat that his RJD father held before he passed away
RJD         56.7% (backed by INC NCP HAM)
JD(U)      27.9% (backed by BJP RLSP LJP)

2015 assembly
JD(U)      58.6% (backed by RJD INC)
BJP rebel 24.6%
JAP           3.5%
HAM          2.7% (backed by BJP RLSP HAM)

2014 LS assembly segment
RJD         62.4% (backed by INC NCP)
BJP         19.9%  (backed by LJP RLSP)
JD(U)      11.4%  (backed by CPI)

This is a very heavy Muslim district where JD(U) used to do well at the assembly level despite its alliance with BJP due to a strong local candidate and JD(U) pro-Muslim image.  This time around the seat reverts to its national levels of support.

Even though the media narrative of these by-elections are a significant setback for BJP, looking at the numbers I would say BJP performed at par, once we accept that he anti-BJP attempts at consolidation has mostly worked.  Meaning there does not seem to be any sign of swing against the BJP.   

Only exception to this narrative is the Uttarakhand assembly by-election where BJP lost ground to INC.   This is a fairly negative signal for places like MP and Rajasthan. 

Obviously the by-elections does show that the anti-BJP can, under the right circumstances, come together.   In UP SP-BSP-INC-RLD on purpose nominated Muslim candidates to test the anti-BJP consolidation thesis in the face of clear attempts of BJP at Hindu consolidation.  It mostly, with some vote leakage, worked.

So what the BJP has to confront in 2019 are various attempts all over India to put together anti-BJP blocs.  If they seems to be gathering steam it could actually become a death spiral.    The chances of BJP allies such as SHS or JD(U) staying in the BJP alliances is really a function of: Will the BJP win in 2019?  If BJP is seen as a winner they neither will have an incentive run afoul of BJP when they are going to win.  If BJP is seen as losing then even they will go on their own to show their electoral power to the BJP.  But with such defection (can you can count TDP's exit from NDA as already part of this process) the BJP gets weaker and makes the next defection more likely.  The internal narrative within the BJP of Modi the Invincible makes this more likely as what JD(U) and SHS will likely do in the face of declining BJP fortunes is to offer to say for a greater pound of flesh in terms of seats.  BJP thinking it unbeatable in 2019 will not compromise.

There are already ominous signs for BJP.  In Karnataka it seems that INC and JD(S), in addition to forming a coalition government, is now also committed to an alliance in 2019 LS elections.  While that might be positive for the BJP on the long run as it would give it a chance to grow in Southern Karnataka where it is INC vs JD(S) for now, this would mean BJP losing 10+ seats in Karnataka.

In  MP,Rajasthan,and Chhattisgarh INC seems to be willing to offer BSP a large number of seats for an alliance for the first time ever.  And the BSP which formed an alliance with INLD in Harayana and JD(S) in Karnataka seems to be willing to join alliances for the first time since the late 1990s.  If it becomes INC-BSP in MP,Rajasthan,and Chhattisgarh then I suspect BJP will lose all 3 states, perhaps by a significant margin. 

http://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/columns/s-gurumurthy/2018/jun/06/2018-bypolls-hidden-message-for-2019-1824318.html

Makes a similar analysis as I did based on the assembly segments results from last assembly election and compare them to the LS by-election

Where we diverge is his analysis fail to take into account (for UP) that
a) incumbent parties tend to over-perform in by-elections
b) relatives of the BJP incumbents were running and BJP should over-perform based on the sympathy factor.
c) Grand alliance ran a Muslim candidates in both UP seats (LS and assembly) which should in theory drive some non-BJP Hindu votes  to BJP.   It was a test of ability of opposition voting blocs to transfer votes to each other.  While BJP can count on Modi to help in 2019 it cannot count on an opposition to nominate a Muslim  in all seats.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/karnataka-cabinet-expansion-congress-jds-bsp-kumaraswamy-shivakumar-mahesh-5206244/

BSP's lone MLA in Karnataka joins JD(S)-INC government becoming the first BSP minister outside of UP.

In MP it seems INC already have roped in the Tribal GGP to join an INC-led alliance and it seems more likely than not that BSP will join with SP also showing interest.  In theory in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh INC is also looking at getting BSP to join but the interest there is less.  INC is very likely to win in Rajasthan own its own and in Chhattisgarh it seems that it is 50/50 between BJP and INC.  It is in MP where the chances of INC victory is lower than 50% and the local INC leadership is willing to give up a significant bloc of seats to get BSP.

The fact that INC is willing to do give up a large number of seats  in a INC-BJP bipolar state (INC has allied with NCP in Gujarat in the past but they gave out single digit number of seats) is a first  and to some extent gives up on the INC dream of restoring a pre-1989 world of INC domination.  Repeated defeats since 2014 has given the INC a wake-up call that a lack of such an alliance might consign INC to terminal decline.

 

Nitish Kumar set to take on BJP, forms a ‘Bihar front’ within NDA to bargain for 2019

https://theprint.in/politics/nitish-kumar-to-take-on-bjp-forms-a-bihar-front-within-nda-bargain-2019/66418/

In Bihar, setbacks by JD(U) in by-elections and BJP nationwide has trigger both parties to try to expand their negotiation power thinking the other side is wounded and more desperate after the by-election defeats. JD(U)'s strategy is to form a bloc-within-a-bloc with LJP and RLSP to insist on a something like  BJP 14 JD(U) 14 LJP 8 RLSP 4 seat sharing agreement.  With 22 MPs in Bihar (really 23 as one of the RLSP MPs have defected to BJP and is expecting to run for re-election on the BJP ticket) there is no chance BJP will accept this.

JD(U) as a result is passively threatening to take LJP and RLSP with JD(U) and run as a seperate bloc if BJP does not accept their demands.   JD(U) also put out stories like

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar said to be seeking reconciliation with Lalu Yadav
https://scroll.in/article/881532/nitish-kumar-is-seeking-to-reconcile-with-lalu-yadav-but-the-bihar-cm-knows-hes-stuck-with-bjp

To put pressure on BJP.

In reality JD(U) has no way to go my projection is that BJP-JD(U) alliance will continue for 2019 with JD(U) accepting a junior position while RLSP will be sacrificed who will in turn defect to the RJD-INC bloc.

Another potential alliance shock

AAP & Congress to form alliance in Delhi, Haryana and Punjab: Sources
http://www.abplive.in/india-news/aap-congress-to-form-alliance-in-delhi-haryana-and-punjab-sources-707681

At this stage AAP is pretty much reduced to a Greater Delhi party.  Most of the AAP nascent base in Maharashtra Goa, and Gujarat has mostly go over to the BJP.  What is ironic is that AAP was formed in 2013 as THE anti-INC anti-corruption party. Now to survive it is going for an alliance with an equally desperate INC.

The report says INC is willing to share 9 out of 30 seats out of  Delhi, Haryana and Punjab with AAP.  In my view Chandigarh should be part of that too since AAP has some strength there as well (Chandigarh being the joint capital of Punjab and Haryana.)  Given current AAP strength I imagine it would be something like 4 AAP seat out of 7 in Delhi, 3 out of 13 in Punjab and 2 out of 10 in Haryana.  One can argue that given how low AAP has fallen in Punjab and that AAP is actually a growing force in Haryana where it is having some success in going after BJP's Upper Caste base that it should be 2 out of 13 in Punjab and 3 out of 10 in Haryana. 

It would be interesting to see if this alliance gets pulled off.   If it does then AAP-INC might be competitive in Delhi as opposed to a BJP sweep.  I think a INC-AAP alliance in Punjab will most likely hurt INC than help but an INC-AAP alliance in Haryana would make it a fun 3 way equally matched battle between BJP, INLD-BSP and INC-AAP.

Spick Media Network TN poll for LS and assembly elections

LS (1 seat tossup between AIADMK and AMMK)
DMK-INC   25 (DMK 24 INC1)
AIADMK      7
AMMK         6

Assembly
DMK-INC  130 (DMK 114 INC 16)
AIADMK     41
AMMK        57


()

I am surprised at how well TTV Dinakaran AIADMK splinter AMMK would do.  It seems that AMMK which is positioning itself must be eating partly into the anti-BJP vote that normally would go DMK with TTV Dinakaran positing itself as the anti-BJP faction of AIADMK.   With AMMK doing so well you would expect DMK+ to completely sweep the polls (like winning 35+ of the 39 LS seats) that it is not means that AMMK is getting DMK votes even as the split of AIADMK does ensure defeat of AIADMK.

In TN the anti-BJP sentiment is very strong.  I suspect in the end AIADMK might end up forming an alliance with BJP despite this.  I think the way AIADMK will figure it, given the clear BJP intervention in the AIADMK civil war, the anti-BJP vote already would view AIADMK as a puppet of the BJP so those votes are lost anyway.  So AIADMK might as well ally with BJP and scoop up the 3%-4% support BJP has in TN and hope the anti-BJP vote is split between DMK+ and AMMK.

J&K's PDP-BJP coalition government broke down with BJP withdrawing support.  PDP CM  Mufti resigns as CM.  Most likely we are headed for mid-term polls.    Of course this was always the most bizarre alliances ever with Hindu nationalist BJP and Muslim separatist PDP in alliance.  With communal tensions on the rise recently BJP most likely figured that being in alliance with PDP would mean BJP would get crushed in Hindu areas to INC next election so it is better to get out now and hope to salvage some Hindu votes.

It seems the BJP-JD(U) seat sharing discussions for Bihar are not going well.  BJP seems interested only in giving JD(U) 8-9 out of 40 seats bearing in mind that BJP has 22, LJP has 6, RLSP has 3 MPs already.   One of the 3 RLSP's MP already split from RLSP and will want to join NDA as a separate party.

To increase his leverage Nitish Kumar is putting out the message that be might do another U-turn and go back to RJD-INC alliance.   Nitish Kumar took JD(U) into NDA in 2017 on the premise that Modi cannot be defeated in 2019.  Then SP-BSP alliance in UP earlier this year has put that assumption in doubt.

INC seems eager to get JD(U) back, mostly as a counterweight to RJD as the dominate partner.  RJD is skeptical of a possible return of JD(U). Most likely this is a JD(U) ploy to get more seats but here are already rumors that JD(U)-RJD talks are ongoing where JD(U) will rejoin the RJD-INC alliance with Lalu Yadav's son Tejashwi Yadav becoming Bihar CM and Nitish Kumar joining national politics by running against Modi in Varanasi in 2019. 

We will see over the next few weeks where BJP-JD(U) talks go and if Nitish Kumar will make yet another U-turn.

In Bihar it seems that RLSP in talks with both NDA and UPA for seat sharing of the 40 LS seats.  There are plenty of rumors on the state of the talks.

In UPA it seems that it will be RJD 20 INC 10 HAM 4 RLSP 4 NCP 1 CPI 1.   Sharad Yadav's LJD will run one candidate under the RJD symbol (that of Sharad Yadav's son who will run in Sharad Yadav's old district Madhepura.)

So in de facto terms it will be

RJD  19
INC  10
HAM  4
RLSP 4
NCP   1
CPI    1
LJD   1

I had predicted back in March

So it seems RJD is willing to invest more in RLSP and HAM to get a larger coalition and hopefully gives it higher ROI in terms of elected seats.

In NDA it seems that it will be BJP 20 JD(U) 20 but JD(U) has to accommodate LJP with its quota and BJP will have to accommodate RLSP and other raw recruits parties.  Of course this is a face saving way of giving BJP more seats since RLSP most likely will leave NDA to join UPA. LJP will demand 6 which is the number of  MPs it has and could end up with 5 on the premise of one of its MPs have defected to RJD all but in name and that since BJP  has to give up seats it won in 2014 so should LJP.  BJP is willing to give RLSP 2 seats and 1 seat for RLSP spliter RSP(S).  BJP is also trying to get RJD splinter JAP to come aboard and for JAP leader  Pappu Yadav to run on the BJP symbol.    BJP is also trying to get Nishad based NSM to come aboard.  NSM leader Mukesh Sahni most likely will contest on the BJP symbol.   So in de facto terms assuming RLSP leaves NDA to join UPA the UPA seat distribution will be

BJP     17
JD(U)  15
LJP       5
JAP      1
RSP(S) 1
NSM     1

whereas I predicted

Which is mostly in line once we take into account some micro parties that BJP wanted to bring in.  This seat breakdown will be painful for BJP and JD(U) but especially for BJP since this means that BJP will have to get 5 incumbent BJP MPs to vacate their seats.  This could work IF the NDA is seen as being en route to victory in 2019 where a post-election NDA government can accommodate these 5 BJP MPs by giving them Upper House seats or governorship in the future.  If the NDA is seen as a bloc that could lose in 2019 then most likely these 5 BJP MPs will bolt and run as BJP rebels making a travesty of the NDA alliance.

There was a vote of no confidence in the LS brought on by TDP a few days ago that Modi, as expected, won.  Looking at how each party voted gives us a sense of how the 2019 LS configuration will look like.

1) SHS abstained.  Most likely this means that chances SHS going on its own in 2019 has increased.
2) AIADMK voted for Modi.  It means that AIADMK-BJP alliance chances as increased.  Not sure where that leaves Rajinikanth's proto-RMM since another route for the BJP was the RMM-BJP alliance.   Given the toxic brand of the BJP in TN and AMMK splitting the AIADMK vote it seems a DMK-INC sweep is unavoidable.   AIADMK and BJP has to hope that AMMK also splits the anti-BJP vote from DMK-INC.
3) TRS abstained.  Most likely this means TRS will not be party of an anti-BJP Federal Front which inevitably will be pro-INC.  This sort of makes sense.  While in Telengana BJP is the enemy of the tomorrow for TRS, the enemy of today is clearly INC especially if INC-TDP forms an alliance.
4) BJD abstained.  This seems par for the course as BJD always had a pro-BJP lean vs INC.  Still it seems clear in that in Odisha INC is falling apart and that the main rival of BJD is BJP.  Could be that BJD does not believe in the INC collapse narrative and still sees 2019 as a 3 way battle between BJD, BJP and INC.

Of course this vote of no confidence is really a playoff among the opposition to see which party will be the main challenger to Modi.  Parties like SP BSP AITC wanted it to be a broad alliance with no leading party and INC clearly want it to be INC.

Rahul Gandhi did something that tried to shift the ground toward INC.  After giving a speech during the debate on the vote of no confidence where he tore up Modi, he went over to Modi's seat and hugged Modi saying that a true Hindu focused on love and not hate.

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This shocked Modi who then gave a speech mostly attacking Rahul Gandhi and INC.  In that sense Rahul Gandhi achieved his main goal of getting Modi and BJP to focus on INC and marginalizing the other anti-BJP opposition parties.

Some alliance developments:

1) INC has announced that in AP and Telangana it will peruse an alliance with TDP, something that many ruled out but I have been predicting since early 2018.  It is not clear if TDP is on board but if INC is coming out in announcing it then for now it is most likely on.  Not clear how the seat breakdown will go.  I assume INC will accommodate TDP in  Telangana where INC is stronger and TDP will accommodate INC in AP where TDP is stronger.  INC also in AP got its 2014 splinter JSP led by the former INC CM Kiran Kumar to merge JSP back into INC.

2) In UP there are rumors that SP BSP INC RLD are close to an Grand alliance deal for 2019 LS elections.  It seems that SP-BSP will give INC 8 seats who is still fighting for 10 seats.  If it is 8 it seems it will be BSP 35 SP 32 INC 8 RLD 3, with 2 seats going to minor parties like PECP and/or NISHAD.  I am still skeptical of this.  I suspect in the end INC will not take this deal and what will take place is INC will be given 5-6 seats with the understanding that INC can and will run in another 15-20 seats in opposition to the Grand Alliance.

3) In Bihar it seems that BJP and JD(U) are getting closer to a deal.  This is putting a lot of pressure on RLSP and LJP.  Both are raising issues unrelated to seat sharing in the situation that either one or both are compromised in terms of seat share they can quit NDA with a "honorable" cause.  RLSP is insisting that Nitish Kumar needs to step down in 2020 since he has been in office too long.  LJP is agitating on Dalit rights.   RLD-INC are putting out signals that they will welcome either or both of RLSP and LJP to come over to the RLD-INC alliance.

4) In MP Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh there are still ongoing talks between INC and (BSP and SP separately) on possible alliances.  Both BSP and SP are pushing for "package deals" where BSP-SP will accommodate INC in UP in exchange for INC accommodation in these 3 states.  In the end I do not think INC will do this.  All things equal INC is much more likely to try to form an alliance with BSP in inelastic  Chhattisgarh while it can count on elastic Rajasthan  and perhaps MP to swing to INC without such an alliance on an anti-BJP swing.

https://www.firstpost.com/india/congress-strategy-of-cementing-state-level-alliances-could-dent-rahul-gandhis-chances-of-becoming-prime-minister-4904411.html

Points out that if INC goes through with various proposed alliances then the number of seats the INC will contest in 2019 will be a record low

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It made a chart of key states where there will be one or several INC allies and the number of seats INC is likely to contest

State      Alliance Partner   Total No. of Seats   No. of Seats Congress is likely to contest
Bihar                 RJD, HAM                   40                                     8-10
Uttar Pradesh     BSP, SP, RLD              80                                      8-10
West Bengal       AITC                         42                                      8-10
Tamil Nadu         DMK                         39                                       7-9
Andhra Pradesh   TDP                          25                                     8-10
Telangana           TDP                          17                                    10-12
Maharashtra        NCP                          48                                    24-26
J&K                     NC                             6                                        3
Jharkhand           JMM                          14                                    10-12
Karnataka           JD(S)                        28                                    20-22
Total                                                   339                                  106-124

Of course they should add

Kerela                UDF allies                 20                                      15

This list makes a lot of sense to me except for WB.  I think in WB in the end the BJP threat is not big enough to try to fuse the hostile INC and AITC vote bases.  INC is more likely to have an alliance with Left Front and contest 15-20 seats.  I also suspect in the end the UP alliance will be partial and INC will be allotted 6-8 seats by SP-BSP but then run in another 10-15 seats in a "friendly contest" with SP-BSP.

In Jharkhand I doubt JMM and JVM will let INC contest 10-12 seats.  More like 7 or at most 8.

TN regional party DMK's 94 year old leader Karunanidhi pass away.
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He first became CM of TN in 1969 and continued to hold that role and and off until 2011.  His son Stalin has been in charge of DMK for the last year or so.    Of course his other son Alagiri who is broken with the DMK and has been holding back on a full scale political attack of Stain mostly to not provoke  Karunanidhi could now make a final bid for supremacy in the DMK against Stalin.  He will not succeed but could damage DMK in the process. 

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/kcr-likely-to-opt-for-early-polls-telangana-may-vote-with-madhya-pradesh-rajasthan-and-chattisgarh-4947821.html

Looks like TRS might dissolve the Telangana assembly and call early elections for later this year along with MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.  I assume this is to make sure that INC-TDP alliance does not have time to be formed, worked out and gel at the ground.  INC-TDP alliance seems like the only way for TRS to be defeated.  With recent events which is pulling TRS and BJP together there might be a de facto even de jure TRS-BJP alliance in the upcoming assembly election.

ABP News-CVoter  poll has INC well ahead in Rajasthan and slightly ahead in MP and Chhattisgarh

Rajasthan is pretty much lost for BJP.  For MP and Chhattisgarh the bad news for the BJP is that incumbents tends to under-perform their pre-election polling.  The good news is that Modi has not really gotten going on campaigning and Amit Shah as not started get involved in election strategy yet.  In such a close race that could turn the tide.

Rajasthan which is very elastic
   
           seats   vote share
BJP         57       36.8%
INC       130       50.8%
Others    13        12.4%
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MP
           seats   vote share
BJP       106       40.1%
INC       117       41.7%
Others     7        18.2%
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Chhattisgarh which is pretty inelastic
           seats   vote share
BJP        33       38.8%
INC       54        40.0%
Others     3       21.3%
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BJP is pushing to move toward a model where all LS and assembly elections are held at the same time which as the norm 1967 and before.  BJP seems to believe that with Modi at the helm a "Presidential" type election will favor it over the opposition and that holding assembly elections at the time would deny the opposition the chance to build up their ability to cooperate.

It seems one thing BJP will do is try to hold the 2019 assembly elections at the same time as the LS elections.  Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, AP and Telegana were already slated to run at the same time as the LS election.  The BJP would push to have Maharashtra, J&K, Haryana, and Jharkhand which are all rule by the BJP (J&K are under governor rule so its the same thing) to held earlier with the LS election. 

In theory BJP could also have other BJP ruled states like Assam, Goa, UP, and Uttarakhand to also hold their assembly election earlier to be  in early 2019 with LS election.  Of course the local BJP MLAs will oppose this saying why should they face early re-election.

Former BJP PM (for 1998-2004) Atal Bihari Vajpayee passed away.  In 2002 during the Gujarat riots he wanted to remove Modi from the CM position.  Vajpayee inter-party rival and DPM L. K. Advani blocked this act.  Of course then in 2013 Modi pushed aside his benefactor Advani  to become the leader of the BJP.

Times Now came out with a national poll with only partial state projections which has it at

BJP      227
INC       78
Others 238
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It has the following state projections which are generally pro-BJP
UP: BJP 49 INC 3 Others 28
Bihar: BJP 14 INC 4 Others 22
Rajasthan: BJP 15 INC 10
Chhattisgarh: BJP 8 INC 3
Jharkhand: BJP 8 INC 0 Others 6
Gujarat: BJP 18 INC 8
WB: BJP 3 INC 3 Others 36
AP: BJP 7 INC 3 Others 15
Telangana: BJP 1 INC 3 Others 13
TN: BJP 2 INC 1 Others 36
Kerela: BJP 1 INC 6 Others 13

The AP results of "BJP 7 INC 3 Others 15" and TN results of "BJP 2 INC 1 Others 36" was roundly mocked since the BJP is fairly low base in AP and almost no base in TN.  Of course critics does not take into account that the poll might assume a YSRCP-BJP alliance in AP to counter TDP-INC, while BJP allies with a weakened AIADMK in TN to take on DMK-INC.

Based on these projections I was able to make reasonable assumptions the results of the "Others" bloc as well as likely results in other states to make the numbers add up.  From there I get

NDA: BJP 227 + NDA allies 51 = 278
UPA: INC  78  + UPA allies 69  = 147
Pro-NDA: 28
Anti-NDA: 90

Which has NDA has a bare majority and will need pro-NDA parties (TRS and BJD) support to form a workable majority.  In such a case it is likely that Modi will have to step aside to bring in a BJP CM that will be more acceptable to NDA allies.

This poll seems to assume that
a) In AP it will be TDP-BJP vs TDP-INC
b) In Telangana it will be TRS vs INC-TDP vs BJP
c) In TN it will be AIADMK-BJP vs DMK-INC
d) In Karnataka it will be BJP vs INC vs JD(S)-BSP (despite claims by INC and JD(S) that they will form an alliance)
e) In Maharashtra BJP somehow retains the SHS alliance.

Of course all this means that even with is bare majority BJP will need to accommodate unruly allies like YSRCP and SHS although without Jalaylalitha AIADMK will be a more submissive ally.

India today semi-annual "Mood of the nation poll."  It has 3 scenarios

Scenario 1 which is the base case is roughly 2014 alliances with
NDA: BJP AGP BPF DMDK HJC JD(U) LJP MDMK NPF NPP PMK RPI(A) SAD SDF SHS
UPA: INC AIMIM DMK JD(S) NC JMM KEC(M) IMUL NCP RJD RLD
Others: AAP AIADMK Left Front AIUDF AITC BJD BSP INLD PDP MNS SP TDP TRS

Comment: It is not realistic to think HJC as being with NDA since it merged back into INC in 2016.  DMDK and PMK could go with BJP but MDMK mostly has decided to go with DMK-INC.  NPF for sure is not with BJP.  I think what the poll meant is pro-BJP NPF splinter NDPP.  AIMIM is really not with UPA.  AIMIM should be viewed like AIUDF which is anti-BJP Muslim sectarian party but not with UPA.  RLD is really with SP-BSP these days and are not really with INC.  I think UPA should also include JVM.  Also this survey does not seem to take into account of new parties like RMM and AMMK in TN and JS in AP.  In theory SHS will leave NDA but I guess this survey assumes they will come back.  Just like in theory KEC(M) left UPA but this survey assumes they will come back. In both cases one can make the argument that both have no where else to go.

            Seat   Vote
NDA      281     36%
UPA      122      31%
Others   140     33%
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NDA retains majority but it is a significant loss from 2014 levels which is a blow considering that NDA now has JD(U) with it.



Scenario 2 is if UPA ropes in SP BSP and AITC to join UPA.  Then it has

Comment: I do not think an INC-AITC alliance is a good idea in WB as a tool to stop BJP.  The AITC and INC has vote bases which at this stage are in conflict and an alliance will only drive votes to BJP.  A better idea is just like 2016 have an INC-Left Front alliance which could take some anti-AITC votes away from BJP.   In UP I think SP-BSP-RLD-INC alliance is generally not a good idea.  In such a case the INC upper caste base would defect to BJP just like in 2017.  A better idea are a partial tactical alliance where SP-BSP-RLD backed INC in the 4-5 seats where it is very strong and in the rest INC can run candidates with the understanding that they are Upper Caste candidates that takes votes from BJP.

            Seat   Vote
NDA      228     36%
UPA       224     41%
Others    91      23%

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BJP would win 194 out of 228 seats INC would win 96 out of 224 UPA seats
Regional breakdown would be

             NDA     UPA      Others
North       57       86          8
West        85       31
East         61       60        21
South       25       47        62
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The net result would be a NDA government with outside support from parties like AIADMK BJD TRS YSRCP.


Scenerio 3 is if UPA gets BSP SP AITC to join UPA, then BJP gets AIADMK and YRSRC to join NDA and as a result TDP joins UPA then it is

Comment:  In TN I still think the BJP brand is so toxic that AIADMK will stay away.  On the other hand the AIADMK has been so stamped with its de facto alliance with BJP that it might as well form an alliance since the anti-BJP vote has been lost to AIADMK long ago.   INC-TDP alliance in Telenagna is very likely especially now that TRS is showing its lean toward the BJP.  In AP other than historical conflict between TDP and INC is the risk that it provokes a YSRCP-BJP alliance.  Again the BJP brand fairly toxic in AP so that YSRCP will not risk it especially when the YRSCP brand is really not liked to BJP like AIADMK is.  I still think that the chances of a TDP-INC alliance in AP is pretty high with the chances of a YSRCP-BJP alliance significant but not as high.  

            Seat   Vote
NDA      255     41%
UPA       242     43%
Others    46      16%
()

BJP would win 196 out of 255 seats INC would win 97 out of 242 UPA seats
Regional breakdown would be

             NDA     UPA      Others
North       57       89          5
West        85       31
East         61       60        21
South       52       62        20
()

Again NDA most likely forms government with BJD and TRS support from the outside.




What is interesting is in all 3 scenarios I do not foresee Modi staying on  

India today semi-annual "Mood of the nation poll" also has leadership ratings has Rahul Gandhi closing the gap

On Best PM it is (diff from Jan 2018)

Modi       49 (-4)
Gandhi    27 (+5)

with Gandhi making gains in urban areas in the North and South (and no much gains in East and West) 
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Rahul is now expected to revive INC by a margin of 47-36 and viewed to be the leader of the anti-BJP forces by a margin of 46-35
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" RLSP chief Upendra Kushwaha hints at alliance with RJD in Bihar, says milk from Yadavs, rice from Kushwahas makes good 'kheer'"
https://www.firstpost.com/india/rlsp-chief-upendra-kushwaha-hints-at-alliance-with-rjd-in-bihar-says-milk-from-yadavs-rice-from-kushwahas-makes-good-kheer-5047971.html

In Bihar seems that RLSP is in the final stages of going over to UPA from NDA. 

The reasons are clearly the same reasons I predicted this will take place months ago.

https://www.telegraphindia.com/states/odisha/nda-not-in-a-tizzy-over-kushwaha-254813

Where within NDA seat talks there are not enough seats to go around and it is clear that RLSP will get sacrificed.  This latest RLSP move seems to be a last gambit to get its fair share which most likely not get the result it wanted and then RLSP will migrate to UPA.

Karnataka municipal election results mostly out.  INC and JD(S) ran separately despite their coalition government at the state level. 

Mostly a tie between INC and BJP with JD(S) in a distant third which replicates the assembly election results from a few months ago.  JD(S) and INC will form alliances in urban local bodies where no party has a majority.

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Overall INC slightly edged out BJP despite BJP being stronger in urban areas.  It seems that the INC-JD(S) coalition government has not driven away any INC nor JD(S) vote base toward BJP as BJP had hoped.

Ongoing talks in NDA seat sharing in Bihar.

BJP is offering
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I think LJP is really 5 since the last seat has to go to RLSP rebel Arun Kumar and his RSM

If JD(U) gets its way of even split between BJP and JD(U) the compromise might be
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JD(U) is pushing for kicking out RLSP which could simplify matters
()

One last way is where BJP and JD(U) split 50/50 but BJP then works with RLSP to share seats out of its quota an JD(U) does the same with LJP.  JD(U) is very negative on RLSP but is friendly with LJP while BJP seems to want to keep RLSP as an OBC counterweight to JD(U).  This model most likely will not work since JD(U) will point out that LJP has a larger footprint than RLSP so this formula is BJP getting more seats than JD(U) by another name.
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BJP seems to be offering JD(U) seat allocations in UP and Jharkhand to make up for JD(U) having less seats in Bihar.  JD(U) seems to reject this saying that seats it will get in UP and Jharkhand are unlikely to be winnable as BJP incumbents are already aplenty in both states and BJP is likely to lose ground in both states in 2019 leaving JD(U) trying to win in seats that even the BJP could not win in 2014 let alone 2019.

Telangana CM TRS KCR (Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao) dissolved the Telangan assembly for an election in Nov 2018 at the same time as MP,Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.

It seems what KCR is up to to separate the LS and the assembly elections.  He wants to form a de facto alliance with the BJP but the BJP brand in Telangana is fairly negative so that if the LS and assembly election were held at the same time in the Spring 2019 then INC-TDP would run against Modi/BJP and tie TRS to BJP even if there is no pre-poll alliance between TRS and BJP.  But if the elections were separated then KCR can run an assembly election on local issues against the likely INC-TDP alliance.

Pollster Axis My India came out with a what seems to be a tracking poll called "Political Stock Exchange" that will focus on the mood in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.

This week they have

MP -> Government stratification/dissatisfaction at 41/40
Rajasthan -> Government stratification/dissatisfaction at 32/48
Chhattisgarh -> Government stratification/dissatisfaction at 39/34

In India pre-election polls tend to have a pro-incumbent bias.  These numbers seems to indicate that the BJP will be blown out in Rajasthan by INC, will most likely lose narrowly in MP to INC, but will be neck-to-neck in Chhattisgarh with INC.

In Telengana, INC TDP (led by Chandrababu Naidu) and CPI will form a grand alliance to take on TRS (led by KCR) which was expected but still a huge development since TDP was formed back in 1982 as an anti-INC party.  CPM and JS will from a block, BJP will contest separately as well YSRCP and AIMIM will contest in the heavy Muslim areas.  Most likely other than AIMIM willing in his strongholds and BJP doing well in the few seats which are BJP stronghold there will be polarization between INC-TDP-CPI and TRS.

The history of alliances in TP/Telengana also shows how the players over the years have flip-flopped over the years.

1980 LS (INC + Naidu(INC) + KCR(INC)) vs JNP (which contains proto-BJP) vs JNP(S)
1983 Assembly (INC + Naidu(INC)) vs (TDP + KCR(TDP) + BJP + Left)
1984 LS, 1985 Assembly, 1989 LS, 1989 assembly   INC vs (TDP + Naidu(TDP) + KCR(TDP) + BJP + Left)
1991 LS, 1994 Assembly, 1996 LS INC vs (TDP + Naidu(TDP) + KCR(TDP) + Left) vs BJP
1998 LS INC vs (TDP(Naidu) + KCR(TDP) + Left) vs (BJP + NTRTDP)
1999 LS, 1999 Assembly INC vs (TDP(Naidu) + KCR(TDP)  + BJP) vs Left
2004 LS, 2004 Assembly (INC + TRS(KCR) + Left) vs (TDP(Naidu) + BJP)
2009 LS, 2009 Assembly (INC + Jaganmohan Reddy(INC)) vs (TDP + Naidu(TDP) + TRS(KCR) + Left) vs  (PRP+ Pawan Kalyan(PRP)) vs BJP [right before the vote count TRS(KCR) defected to join BJP camp but left right after the counted results showed that BJP lost the general election]
2014 LS 2014 Assembly (INC + Left) vs (TDP(Naidu) + BJP) vs YSRCP (Jaganmohan Reddy) vs TRS(KCR)

Now we will have in Telengana
2018 Assembly (INC + TDP(Naidu) + CPI) vs TRS(KCR) vs  BJP vs YSRCP (Jaganmohan Reddy) vs (Pawan Kalyan(JS) + CPM)

In AP next year I suspect it will be the same but without TRS in the fray.  It is possible that in the LS elections in Telengana next year TRS and BJP will form an alliance.

So pretty other than BJP and INC cannot be on the same side, everyone has been allies and enemies of each other.

In a blow to INC hopes for an alliance with BSP in MP and Chhattisgarh (most likely INC does not need an alliance with BSP to win in Rajasthan), BSP seems to have committed to going it alone in MP and going into an alliance with INC rebel Ajit Jogi led CJC.  In  Chhattisgarh  it seems that CJC will contest 55 seats with BSP contesting 35 seats out of the 90 seats.

BSP could be decisive in MP and Chhattisgarh which is why this is such a blow for INC.  On paper the greater damage is in Chhattisgarh where the CJC-BSP sealed off any chance of CJC merging back into INC as well as a INC-BSP alliance although INC in theory is in place to potentially defeat BJP even without an alliance with BSP.  The wildcard would be if CJC pulls in more support from INC or BJP.

In MP INC-BSP alliance fell apart, for now, due to to the number of seats the INC was willing to part with.  Part of it is due to the surge in MP of various Upper Caste and OBC castist organizations is various parts of MP.  Part of INC's thinking is that if it yields too much ground to BSP these organizations would be driven into the arms of the BJP.

It time to focus in on the electoral history of key states come up later in the year.  A good one to start with is Rajasthan.

Rajasthan is in Northern India and is historically dominated by local princes and different ties of landowners below them.    Historically Rajasthan tends to vote with similar patterns as other Northern Indian states but is much more elastic than the rest of Northern India.
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A survey of LS election results from 1967-1980 would show this level of volatility.  

1967 was the first year that Rajasthan politics became competitive when INC right win splinter SWA(Swatantra) was able to gain traction allied with BJS (proto-BJP) to capture a good amount of former prince/landowner class support and overtake INC in terms of vote share and seats.

Rajasthan 1967 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         23                10               40.27%

SWA+       23                13                43.57% (BJS was part of SWA+)

BJS rebel                        0                 1.79%

SSP+         8                  0                 5.44% (CPI CPM PSP were part of SSP+)

The assembly election held the same time held INC below an absolute majority but INC was able to form a government by pulling in various independents.


The INC split of 1969 had the anti-Indira Gandhi INC(O) split out of INC but with SWA and BJS already established as a strong anti-INC bloc INC(O) was not able to gain much traction.    For the 1971 LS election saw Indira Gandhi turn against the former princely class but her radical agenda pulled in support from the lower classes to pull her to a landslide victory in India and a medium size victory in Rajasthan.  SSP joined up with SWA+ which had partial alliance with INC(O) and BKD (small landowner Centrist INC splinter) but it was not able to stop the Indira wave even if it contained. it.

Rajasthan 1971 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           23                14               50.35%

SWA+       21                  9               37.73%  (BJS and SSP were part of SWA+)

INC(O)       4                  0                1.65%  (partial alliance with SWA+)
 
BKD           8                  0                3.86%  (partial alliance with SWA+)

CPM+         4                  0               1.15%  (CPI was part of CPM+)


The 1972 Rajasthan assembly election saw a BJS and SWA split which paved the way for an INC landslide.   Then INC all Northern Indian non-Communist anti-INC parties (BJS SWA BKD INC(O) SSP PSP) unite and then merged into one party, JNP, as a result of the 1975-1977 emergency.  The 1977 LS elections saw INC crushed in Northern India which was also the case in Rajasthan as JNP captured national power.

Rajasthan 1977 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            25                1                 30.56%

JNP            25              24                 65.21%

CPI+           5                0                   0.86%  (CPM was part of CPI+)
 

Right after the 1977 JNP LS election new Rajasthan assembly elections were called with JNP winning in a landslide repeating the 1977 LS election.  As a result the first non-INC Rajasthan CM was installed which was Bhairon Singh Shekhawat who has a BJS background.
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After JNP came into power it began to splinter which led up to the 1979 split of JNP where the old BKD SSP and PSP parts of JNP split out to form JNP(S) which brought down the JNP government and leading to the 1980 LS elections.   INC(U) split from INC and allied with JNP(S).  Indira Gandhi INC won 1980 in a landslide over a splintered anti-INC vote and came back to power at the center.  INC support in 1980 is not that different from 1967 LS but because the anti-INC vote was more evenly split between JNP and JNP(S) in 1980 the INC won a large landslide victory.

Rajasthan 1980 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                18                42.64%

JNP           25                  4                31.65% (mostly the old BJS and SWA vote)

JNP(S)+    25                  3                18.16% (INC(U) CPI CPM were part of JNP(S)+)

After coming back to power at the center INC called early assembly elections for  Rajasthan.  In the meantime JNP further split as the BJP and most of the SWA parts of JNP split out to form BJP leaving the JNP with mostly the old INC(O) vote.  In the 3 way split of the anti-INC vote INC won a landslide victory in the assembly elections and came back to power ending the first non-INC Rajasthan government under Shekhawat.

After the INC restoration in 1980 things started to go downhill for INC, especially in Southern India.  Then the 1984 assassination of Indira Gandhi became a game changer, especially in the North, which turned into a pro-INC wave and landslide.    In Rajasthan the same took place which was made worse by the continued 3 way split of the anti-INC parties (BJP, JNP and LD [JNP(S) renamed itself LD])

Rajasthan 1984 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                25               52.72%

INC(J)        6                  0                 1.11%  (INC(J) was an INC splinter)

BJP           24                 0                23.69%

LD+          17                 0                11.56% (CPI was part of LD+)

JNP+         18                 0                 4.50% (CPM was part of JNP+)


The INC wave continued in the 1985 Rajasthan assembly elections but this time the opposition learned its lesson.  BJP and LD formed an alliance and had tactical alliances with JNP.  As a result the INC still won but a landslide was avoided.

Rajasthan 1985 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          199               113               46.57%

INC rebel                          3                2.24%

BJP+        180                 71              35.20% (LD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                          1                1.34%
LD rebel                           1                0.36%

JNP+          37                10               6.64% (JNP+ had tactical alliances with BJP+ and CPI)

CPI            47                  1                1.23%

CPM          18                   0                0.58%

Despite a very large vote share for INC the opposition was able to mitigate the INC advantage by forming alliances on a seat by seat basis and reduced the INC advantage.  This would prove to be a harbinger for the 1989 elections.

After the INC victories of 1984 and 1985 things went downhill for INC.  A series of corruption scandals plus a bunch of bungled steps to humor Hindu nationalist as well as the Muslims left INC losing support as well as an anti-Rajiv Gandhi splinter leaving INC and merge with JNP and LD to form JD.  For 1989 LS elections JD hand an alliance with CPM/CPI and had tactical alliances with BJP to sweep INC out of Northern India and led to a JD led minority government.  In Rajasthan  a huge swing against INC plus a successful set of tactical alliances between JD and BJP led to a landslide defeat of INC.

Rajasthan 1989 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                 0               36.98%

INC rebel                       0                 0.68%

BJP          17                13               29.64% (BJP had tactical alliance with JD+)

JD+         15                12               27.91% (CPI and CPM were in JD+, tactical alliance with BJP)



BJP supported national JD+ minority government from the outside.  In the 1990 assembly election this same alliance somewhat held but less effectively between BJP and JD+ and led to a INC defeat but not as serious as the 1989 LS elections.

Rajasthan 1990 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          200                50               33.64%

INC rebel                         2                 1.97%

BJP+        153               89                28.65%

BJP rebel                        2                  1.14%

JD+         138               56                23.60%

JD reblel                        0                  0.25%

CPM+        63                0                  1.85%

BSP           57                0                  0.79%

No party received a majority but since the BJP emerged as the largest party and given the partial alliance pact BJP had with JD, BJP's Shekhawat who was CM in 1977-1980 returned as BJP CM with outside support of JD.

By late 1990 the JNP minority government at the center was clearly in trouble with BJP planning to pull out over the Ayodhya temple issue.  JD struck first in Rajasthan  by pulling support from the BJP government of CM Shekhawat.    But Shekhawat struck first by organizing a split in in JD with a JD faction splitting off from JD and backing the BJP government.  At the national level JD(S) split from JD and formed a government with outside support from the INC.  This did not last long and mid-term LS elections were called in 1991.  Right in the middle of the election campaign INC leader former PM Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated by Sri Lanka Tamil extremists.   This had a large effect on the election as voting that took place after the assassination clearly shifted toward the INC in a sympathy wave.  In Rajasthan some seats voted before the assassination and some afterwards.  The INC were most likely going to be beaten by the BJP in Rajasthan as the Ayodhya  issue polarized the INC upper caste base to shift to INC.    The assassination sympathy wave drew INC to a tie.

Rajasthan 1991 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                13              43.97%

BJP           25                12               40.88%

JD+          24                  0                6.96% (CPM CPI were part of JD+)

JD(S)        21                  0               3.24%


The INC was returned to power at the national level following short of an absolute majority by a few seats.  In Rajasthan the BJP government continued with the support of the pro-BJP JD faction.  The destruction of the Ayodhya mosque by Hindu nationalist activist in Dec 1992 led the INC government to dismiss the BJP government in Rajasthan and call new elections.  The INC had expected to win the election counting on the old JD vote base to mostly return to INC.  Instead BJP managed to emerge at the largest party.

Rajasthan 1993 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          199                76               38.27%

INC rebel                       11                 4.13%

BJP+       199                97                39.27%

BJP rebel                        6                  2.82%

JD+         165                 9                  8.79% (CPM CPI were part of JD+)

BSP           50                 0                  0.56%

INC was partly sunk by the large number of INC rebels but the BJP had a significant rebel problem of their own.   INC tried to get JD to back a INC government, but in the end Shekhawat was able to form a BJP government by pulling in various INC and BJP rebels to join up with him.  Once again, just like 1990,  Shekhawat outmaneuvered his INC and JD enemies.

One interesting What If in Indian election and political history has always been "What would have taken place in the 1991 LS election if Rajiv Gandhi was not assassinated."    Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated in the middle of the multi-stage voting.  It was clear that the sympathy wave  propelled the INC to victory with a near absolute majority.  What was not clear was to what extent this helped.  Rajasthan was a place where we were able to observe its effect.  16 Rajasthan LS seats voted before Rajiv Gandhi's assassination and 9  Rajasthan LS seats voted after.

So if we look at how the vote went in these 16 and 9 seats between 1989 and 1991 we can sort of map out the size of the pro-INC sympathy wave.  

In the 16 seats that voted before the assassination we can look at the 1989 and 1991 results

Rajasthan 1989 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16                 0               36.99%

INC rebel                       0                 0.44%

BJP           10                7                25.12% (BJP had tactical alliance with JD+)

JD+          11                9                31.07% (CPI and CPM were in JD+, tactical alliance with BJP)


Rajasthan 1991 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16                 6               40.56%

BJP           16                10               41.52%

JD+          16                  0                8.93% (CPM CPI were part of JD+)

JD(S)        13                  0               3.87%





Then we can look at the 9 seats that voted after the assassination and compare 1989 and 1991

Rajasthan 1989 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             9                 0               36.97%

INC rebel                       0                 1.15%

BJP             7                6                38.23% (BJP had tactical alliance with JD+)

JD+            4                3                19.82% (CPI and CPM were in JD+, tactical alliance with BJP)


Rajasthan 1991 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             9                 7               49.70%

BJP             9                 2               39.81%

JD+            8                 0                3.67% (CPM CPI were part of JD+)

JD(S)          8                 0                2.18%


The data is pretty clear.  In the 16 seats that voted before the assassination the BJP is relatively weaker than JD in 1989.  But in 1991 BJP gained an upper hand over INC.  In the 9 seats that voted after the assassination the BJP was relatively stronger than JD in 1989.  As it is due to the sympathy wave INC won most these 9 seats by a large margin.  But it seems that if we used the 16 seats that voted before the assassination to calibrate the expected results in the remaining 9 seats if there had not been an assassination then the BJP would have most likely swept these 9 seats.  

And if we view Rajasthan as an very elastic version of how Northern India would voted we can conclude that if there had been no assassination of Rajiv Gandhi then the 1991 LS election then most likely there would have been a hung parliament with with a very small if any edge over BJP versus a near absolute majority by INC.

At the national level, out of the 180 seats that voted before the assassination INC and allies won 39 of them vs 45 in 1991.  Out of the 354 seats that voted after the assassination INC and allies won 221 vs 170 in 1991.  

After the Rajasthan 1993 assembly election the next trial of strength was the 1996 LS elections.  INC was on the back foot with anti-incumbency running high at the national level plus pro-Gandhi clan splinter AIIC(T) splitting the INC vote.  But in Rajasthan it has already been 6 years since the BJP has been in charge and anti-incumbency against the BJP was also rising.  The result in Rajasthan was a draw despite the AIIC(T) split.

Rajasthan 1996 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                12              40.51%

INC rebel                        0                0.99%

AIIC(T)     17                  1                3.58%  (INC splinter)

BJP          25                 12              42.36%

JD+         17                   0                3.86% (SAP and CPI were part of JD+)

BSP         13                   0                1.35%

CPM          1                   0                0.44%

This election finished off JD as a relevant force and made Rajasthan a bipolar state.  At the national level the INC was ousted and a JD+ government was formed with outside support of INC to block BJP.

The JD+ government at the national level was not stable due to the fact that in many states INC was the rival of JD and as a result it did not last long paving the way for 1998 mid-term elections.  INC was blamed for the mid-term elections and seems doomed until Sonia Gandhi came in to campaign for INC and prevent a complete INC meltdown.  In Rajasthan the Sonia Gandhi factor plus 8 years of anti-incumbency for the BJP state government led to a shocking INC victory.  

Rajasthan 1998 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            25               18               44.45%

INC rebel                        1                 2.07%

AIIC(S)        1                1                  1.92%  (INC splinter)

BJP            25                5                41.65%

BJP rebel                       0                  1.14%

JD+           19                0                  3.59% (CPM was part of JD+)

BSP           22                0                  2.12%

CPI             5                 0                  0.62%

The scale of the INC victory in Rajasthan was a shock and showed the scale of discontent at the Shekhawat BJP government.  At the national level the election was mostly a draw but BJP grew at the expense of JD.  TDP defected from the JD camp to support the BJP to form a BJP led goverment at the center.  Given the scale of defeat in Rajasthan in 1998 LS elections it was not a surprise that the assembly elections later in the year delivered a significant victory to INC.  

Rajasthan 1998 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          200               153               44.95%

INC rebel                         4                 4.84%

BJP+        200                33               33.79%  (INLD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                         3                 3.47%

JD+           73                  3                 2.40%

BSP         108                  2                  2.17%

CPM          14                   1                 0.81%

RJD          18                   1                 0.28%

The INC landslide victory was organized its young leader Ashok Gehlot who then became CM.
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In 1999 the AIADMK defected from the BJP camp and brought down the BJP government at the center.  As a result another midterm election was called.  JD split between a pro-BJP JD(U) and an anti-BJP JD(S).  The election went strongly in favor of the BJP due to the nature of how the BJP Vajpayee government was brought down in a positive vote for Vajpayee,   In Rajasthan where the honeymoon period for the new INC government should have delivered the INC a victory the removal of the burden of anti-BJP incumbency at the local level plus the Vajpayee  brand brought in a BJP victory in a reversal of the results in 1998.

Rajasthan 1999 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                 9               45.12%

BJP+         25               16               48.82% (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        0                0.44%

BSP           16                 0                2.76%

CPM            1                 0                0.49%

CPI             4                 0                0.42%

In addition to the pro-Vajpayee vote the JD mostly going over to JD(U) who then allied with BJP also aided the BJP victory in a even more polarized election.

The INC government in Rajasthan led by Gehlot continued until the assembly elections in 2003.  Despite a fairly good record anti-incumbency was building up and INC was defeated in 2003.  

Rajasthan 2003 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          200               56               35.65%

INC rebel                        7                 4.47%

NCP           58                 0                 0.64%  (INC splinter)

BJP+        200             122               39.87%  (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        6                 1.91%

RSNN        65                  1                2.23% (Upper Caste party, BJP splinter)

INLD         50                  4                2.58% (Haryana based party, strong with Jats)

BSP         124                  2                3.97%  

CPM           18                 1                0.77%

LJP            36                  1                0.37% (JD(U) Dalit based splinter)

SP             63                  0                0.87%

()

INC was hit by significant rebellion but BJP also had its share of splinters and rebels and in the end BJP won easily helped by its alliance with JD(U).    Former BJP CM Shekhawat was already elected Vice President of India in 2002 so the BJP CM now is Vasundhara Raje who comes from a prominent pro-BJP princely royal family even though a branch of this royal family is pro-INC which includes her nephew Madhavrao Scindia who is one of the top INC leaders in MP.
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Buoyed by assembly election victories in  Rajasthan  as well as MP and New Delhi the BJP called early LS elections in 2004 and was unexpectedly defeat by Sonia Gandhi's INC.  In  Rajasthan the BJP government was in its honeymoon period and the BJP won by a wide margin in the LS elections in a fairly polerlized election.

Rajasthan 2004 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                 4               41.42%

BJP           25                21               49.01%

BSP           24                0                 3.16%

The BJP goverment of Raje lasted until 2008 when the next round of assembly elections came around.  The same anti-incumbency that hit Gehlot  in 2003 now hit Raje when the BJP was defeated by the INC  although INC failed to win an absolute majority on its own.

Rajasthan 2008 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          200               96               36.82%

INC rebel                        7                 4.03%

BJP+        199              79                35.08% (INLD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                       6                  3.02%

BJS           54                 0                 0.45% (BJP splinter party)

JD(U)          4                1                  0.45%

BSP         199                6                  7.60%

CPM          34                3                  1.62%

LSP           20                1                  0.88%

SP             64                1                 0.76%

()

Both INC and BJP were hit by rebellions but the INC came out ahead.  INC was able to form a government by taking in some INC and BJP rebels as well as split BSP where a majority of BSP MLAs went over to INC.    After some internal discussion INC brought back Gehlot as INC CM after the election.

2009 LS elections came at the heels of a crisis where INC PM Manmohan Singh was able to stare down Left front over the nuclear power deal with USA.  As a result there was a wave for INC which was especially large in Rajasthan given the honeymoon period for the new INC government.  

Rajasthan 2009 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                20               47.19%

INC rebel                        0                 2.46%

BJP           25                  4               36.57%

BJP rebel                        1                 3.29%

BSP          24                  0                 3.37%

CPM           3                  0                 1.26%

()

By the time the 2013 Rajasthan assembly election came around INC was in huge trouble.  Plagued by scandals and surging inflation the INC government at the center was becoming very unpopular.  Add to that the anti-incumbency at the  Rajasthan INC government the result was a BJP landslide victory despite significant number of BJP rebels and various BJP splinter parties.

Rajasthan 2013 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          200               21               33.07%

INC rebel                        0                 1.69%

BJP          200             163               45.17%

BJP rebel                       6                  2.21%

NPP         134                4                  4.25% (in theory NCP splinter, de facto BJP splinter)

NUZP        25                 2                 1.01% (represents landowners, de facto BJP splinter)

BSP         195                3                 3.37%

BSP rebel                      1                 0.35%

CPM         36                 0                 0.87%

()
 
The result was that Raje was made the CM again with a BJP government.  The anti-INC tide continued with the Modi wave in 2014 LS which merely consolidated all the anti-INC vote into a massive landslide not seen since 1984.

Rajasthan 2014 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           25                 0               30.73%

INC rebel                       0                 0.65%

BJP           25               25               55.61%

BJP rebel                       0                2.80%

NPP           4                  0                 1.21% (in theory NCP splinter, de facto BJP splinter)

NUZP         3                  0                0.47%  (represents landowners, de facto BJP splinter)

BSP         23                  0                 2.37%

BSP rebel                      0                 0.77%

APP         22                  0                 1.02%

The main takeaway from Rajasthan last few election cycles are:
a) INC and BJP alternate in power every assembly election
b) The LS election right after the assembly election is an exaggerated version of the assembly election result
c) The first and only time the Rajasthan assembly was held with double anti-incumbency against the non-INC party  (both the Rajasthan  and national ruling party are non-INC) is in 1998 when BJP was the ruling party at both Rajasthan and at the center, the BJP was crushed.

So 2018 most likely will see a significant defeat for BJP and more likely than not see INC win the LS election despite Modi's clear popularity.  

Main risk to INC is the rivalry between two time INC CM Gehlot and new INC youth leader Sachin Pilot
()

Pilot is close to Rahul Gandhi and there have been signs that INC high command is having problems getting both the Gehlot and Pilot factions to get behind a common campaign.  INC high command is going to punt this problem by not projecting either as CM candidate and deal with this problem after the election.  All things equal it seems Gehlot has the upper hand.

Election schedule for Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana in Nov-Dec 2018 announced.

()

ABP poll has INC marginally ahead in MP and Chhattisgarh and significantly ahead in Rajasthan.

Rajasthan
         Vote share   Seats
INC       50%          142
BJP       34%            56
Other    16%             2
()
Frankly, if the INC-BJP vote share lead is 14% then BJP will be lucky to cross 30 seats given how uniform and elastic Rajasthan swings has historically been.   We are likely to see a INC victory on the scale of 1998.


MP
         Vote share   Seats
INC      42.2%        122
BJP      41.5%        108
Other   16.3%           0
()
Usually these pre-election polls have a pro-incumbant bias.  It seems if this poll is accurate the scale of BJP defeat might be greater than what is indicated.



Chhattisgarh
         Vote share   Seats
INC      38.9%         47
BJP      38.6%         40
Other   22.5%           3
()
Like MP the scale of BJP's defeat might be underestimated given the pro-incumbent bias in pre-election polls.  But Chhattisgarh is a very inelastic state so that underestimation might be tiny.  It also seems that INC rebel and former INC CM Ajit Jogi's CJC alliance with BSP will win a good chunk of votes but will not win that many seats.  It also seems that CJC-BSP will pull from INC and BJP equally in a significant disappointment to BJP.  

Times Now poll for MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh somewhat more positive for BJP

MP
        vote share seats  
BJP        44%      142
INC        35%       77
Others    21%       11
()
If these vote shares are true then INC will be below 50 seats for sure.



Chhattisgarh
        vote share seats  
BJP        47%        47
INC        33%       33
Others    21%       10

()
Again, if these were the vote shares then INC would be reduced to below 20 seats.



Rajasthan
        vote share seats  
BJP        41%        75
INC        46%      115
Others    12%       10
()
Here the vote share and set share seems to jive.



Same poll has BJP winning 43 LS seats to INC 22 in these 3 states.  Back in 2014 it was BJP 62 INC 3.
()

ABP News-CVoter has a national poll for LS elections.  It has NDA winning a narrow majority based on current allianes

        vote share    seat share
NDA     38%             276
UPA      25%            115
Others  37%            155

()

Breakdown by region/states are

State/region     NDA    UPA      Others
UP                     36       2         42        (Assume SP-BSP alliance but not with INC)
Bihar                  31       9          0        (Assume LJP RLSP stay in NDA)
MP                     23       6          0
Chhattisgarh        9        2          0
Rajasthan          18        6          0       (???  Rajasthan has 25 and not 24 seats)
Maharashtra       36      12          0       (Assume BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP)
Odisha               13        2          6
North-East          18       6          1
Punjab                 1      12         0
Haryana              6        3          1
Delhi                   7        0          0
South India        21      31         76    (Kerala, TN , AP, Karnataka)

It has some scenarios for different key states.

For UP: 

If it is SP-BSP-INC vs BJP then it is SP-BSP-INC 56 NDA 24
()

If BSP contests alone then it is NDA 70 USA 2 Others[SP, BSP] 8
()

If it is SP-BSP vs BJP vs INC then it is NDA 36 UPA 2 SP-BSP 42
()


For Bihar

If RLSP and LJP join UPA then it is NDA 22 UPA 18
()

If RLSP and LJP stay in NDA then it is NDA 31 UPA 9
()



Maharashtra

If it is INC-NCP vs BJP vs SHS then it is NDA 16 UPA 30 SHS 2
()

If it is INC-NCP vs BHP-SHS then it is NDA 36 UPA 12
()

If it is a 4 way battle INC vs NCP vs BJP vs SHS then it is BJP 22 INC 11 NCP 8 SHS 7
()

The next states(s) to look at are MP/Chhattisgarh.  Chhattisgarh was a part of MP until 2000.  This greater MP was a large state in India.  
()
()

Then in 2000 the eastern Tribal heavy part of MP was broken off as Chhattisgarh given complaints that the resource rich but tribal heavy Chhattisgarh had its resources shifted to the benefit of the Caste Hindu heavy Western MP which continued on as MP.
()

Since the political dynamic between what became MP and Chhattisgarh are different given the high percentage of tribals (at least 1/3 of the population and most likely more) I will report the electoral history using the modern boundaries with the understanding that before 2000 both MP and Chhattisgarh were part of one state.

MP very early one was a INC vs BJS (proto-BJP) state where the Upper Castes and various Princes were supportive of BJS Hindu nationalist appeal.  INC has the upper hand as the anti-INC vote was often split up to and including 1967.  In Chhattisgarh  INC's domination is more complete given the fact that tribal vote heavily for INC.  1967 is a good place to start to see this.

1967 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            27               16               40.10%

INC rebel                        0                 1.44%

BJS+          27              10               33.13%

BJS rebel                        0                0.95%

SWA            2                 1                3.62%  (has tactical alliance with BJS+)

PSP+         22                 0                9.94% (SSP was part of PSP+)

RPI             6                 0                2.03%

CPI            6                  0                2.65%


1967 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                 8               42.94%

INC rebel                       1                 3.47%

JAC             3                 0                 6.12% (INC splinter)

BJS+        10                  1              26.94%

PSP+          9                 0               10.95%

CPI             1                 0                2.06%

INC won a narrow victory over BJS+ in MP mostly due to the fact that the PSP+ bloc took a good chunk of the anti-INC vote.  In Chhattisgarh despite significant INC rebellion, INC won a large victory over BJS+ due to the tribal vote for INC.

In the assembly election of 1967 of combined MP, INC won a tiny majority which due to defections and counter-defections led to several unstable INC or anti-INC grand alliance governments.

The INC split of 1969 where the anti-Indira Gandhi faction split out into INC(O) lead to a realignment where INC(O) joined forces with the opposition which was tested in the 1971 midterm LS elections.  Here Indira Gandhi's turn to the Left turned a good part of the Socialist and even Communist vote toward INC while the Princely class shifted further toward BJS.  Overall the BJS-SWA-INC(O)-BKD-SSP national grand alliance flopped but managed to do well in MP where the power of the Princely class carried the anti-INC bloc even as INC won a landslide victory in tribal Chhattisgarh.

1971 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            27               12               44.24%

BJS+          27              15                47.87% (INC(O) and SSP were part of BJS+)

PSP             8                 0                 1.47%

CPI             3                 0                  1.05%


1971 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          10               10               52.42%

INC rebel                        0                 1.48%

BJS+         10                 0                30.22% (INC(O) was part of BJS+)

BJS rebel                        0                 1.75%

In MP the INC(O) was strong enough which when add to the large scale Princely class support for BJS+ to get an edge over INC.  In Chhattisgarh the shift of the PSP+ vote base over to INC plus the already large INC base gave it an easy victory over BJS+.

In the 1972 MP assembly elections the PSP and SSP reunited into SP and ran separately from BJS. 
 INC(O) ran separately as well but most of the INC(O) base went back to INC.   The split of the anti-INC vote plus the swing toward INC in the afterglow of the 1971 LS landslide gave the INC a landslide majority.

After the INC restoration of 1971-1972 of course we had the Indira Gandhi emergency of 1975-1977 followed by the merger of all non-Communist opposition into JNP to take on INC in the 1977 LS elections.  Like the rest of Northern India INC was smashed by JNP in MP by a combination of a swing away from INC and the consolidation of the ant-INC vote.

1977 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           29               2               34.90%

JNP+           29             27               60.02% (RPI(K) was part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                       0                 0.74%

CPI               2              0                  0.60%


1977 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 0               37.23%

JNP           11               11               56.71%

JNP rebel                       0                 2.19%

INC did better in tribal Chhattisgarh  but such was the size of the anti-INC wave it did not matter and INC was crushed there as well.  Right after the 1977 LS elections MP held assembly elections where JNP also won by a landslide but with a reduced vote share.  Given the core of JNP in MP was dominated by BJS, the CMs that took over after 1977 MP assembly election had a BJS background.

The 1977 JNP government soon splintered even as the INC split into pro-Indira Gandhi faction (INC) and anti-Indira faction (INC(U)).  The political chaos led to the mid-term elections of 1980 which INC won in a restoration election for Indira Gandhi's INC as JNP splintering split the anti-INC vote.

1980 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29              25               49.05%

JNP            29               4                34.09%

JNP(S)       23               0                  8.36% (had tactical alliance with INC(U))

INC(U)        9                0                 1.66% (had tactical alliance with JNP(S))


1980 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                11               51.07%

JNP           11                  0               22.47%

JNP rebel                        0                 4.60%

JNP(S)        7                  0                 5.98% (had tactical alliance with INC(U))

INC(U)        4                  0                1.95% (had tactical alliance with JNP(S))

CPI+          4                  0                 2.42% (CPM and RPI(K) were part of CPI+)

Basically with anti-BJS faction of JNP forming JNP(S) JNP in MP and Chhattisgarh was basically the old BJS plus some INC(O) members that did not move back to INC.   In Chhattisgarh these results were mostly reversion to 1971 results as far as INC support goes but in MP INC far exceeded its 1971 performance as the old INC(O) bloc of 1971 had by this point moved back to INC.

The new INC government at the center called for new assembly elections in MP which saw the INC return to power.  To ensure locality of the INC branch in MP and Chhattisgarh, a Indira Gandhi loyalist Arjun Singh was put in charge as the new CM of MP.
()

After the 1980 elections BJP split out from JNP while JNP(S) renamed itself LKD.  The assassination of Indira Gandhi triggered early LS elections in 1984 which was a massive INC landslide in Northern India due to the sympathy factor and splintered opposition.    It was no different in MP and Chhattisgarh where INC surged to landslide levels well beyond 1971 and 1980 especially in MP.

1984 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29              29               56.08%

BJP            29                0               31.93%

JNP+          17                0                3.54%

LKD             9                0                 1.32%


1984 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                11               60.11%

BJP           11                  0               24.16%

BJP rebel                        0                 1.67%

JNP            7                  0                 3.13%

CPI            3                   0                2.39%

proto-BSP  2                  0                  1.71%


The 1985 MP assembly election was a similar story with INC coming back to power with a massive majority.   Arjun Singh was swapped by out INC high command as CM but was brought back in as CM later in the term.

Are you a BJP supporter

Yes, mostly through process of elimination.  But I would call myself as a member of the anti-Modi faction of BJP.

After the 1984-1985 INC landslide things went downhill for INC.  Due to corruption scandals an anti-Rajiv Gandhi faction led VP Singh of INC split and merged with JNP and LKD to form JD.  In the 1989 LS elections JD formed and alliance with Left Front and had tactical alliances with the BJP.  This plus the swing away from INC led to a hung parliament in 1989 with INC taking significant setbacks in Northern India.

1989 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29                5               36.99%

INC rebel                       0                 0.92%

BJP            25               21              43.22% (had tactical alliance with JD+)

DDP          26                0                 1.62% (Hindu based party)

JD+           10                2                 6.92% (CPI was part of JD+, had tactical alliance with BJP)

JD rebel                         1                1.23%

BSP           25                0                4.06% (Dalit based party)


1989 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 3               39.76%

BJP+           9                 6               32.58%

BJP rebel                        0                1.14% (had tactical alliance with JD+)

JD+            6                 2               16.14% (CPI was part of JD+, had tactical alliance with BJP+)

BSP          10                 0                 4.91% (Dalit based party)

BSP taking Dalit votes added to the INC defeat.  BJP relatively stronger in MP while INC and JD+ relatively stronger in tribal Chhattisgarh with JD+ strength coming from INC defectors.  JD formed the national government with regional parties and outside support from BJP.

The 1990 MP assembly election saw a similar pattern as 1989 LS elections as BJP are still allies of JD and saw similar results with INC beaten by the JD-BJP tactical alliance.

MP 1990 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         230              34               33.00%

INC rebel                         2                3.01%

BJP+         208             170              42.07% (had tactical alliance with JD+)

BJP rebel                        2                 0.76%

JD+           90               19                 7.57% (had tactical alliance with BJP+ and CPI+)

CPI+          47                1                 1.08% (CPM was part of CPI+, had tactical alliance with JD+)

BSP         130                 0                 3.60%


Chhattisgarh 1990 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          90              23               35.35%

INC rebel                        2                1.71%

BJP+         75               53               35.67% (had tactical alliance with JD)

BJP rebel                       0                 1.36%

JD            34                 9                 9.73% (had tactical alliance with BJP+ and CPI+)

CPI+        21                 2                 2.59% (had tactical alliance with JD)

BSP         53                  1                 3.37%

CMM         8                   0                 0.54% (Chhattisgarh regionalist)

The result was a replication of the 1989 LS election results with a BJP majority and a BJP CM being installed.

The JD+ government at the center soon fell apart in 1990 as BJP withdrew support over the Ram temple issue and JD(S) split from JD.  As a result the 1991 LS elections were called which was dominated by the Rajiv Gandhi assassination.  BJP was most likely headed to a sweep in MP and a solid performance in Chhattisgarh based on Upper caste and OBC swing toward BJP but the sympathy factor drove MP into a tie and a sweep for INC in Chhattisgarh as INC came close to a absolute majority overall.

1991 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29              16               44.47%

BJP            29               12              43.20%

BSP           12                1                 3.28%

JD+           29                0                 4.58% (CPI was part of JD+)

JD(S)         25               0                  0.66%


1991 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                11               47.99%

BJP           11                 0                37.84%

BSP            9                 0                 4.33%

JD+          11                 0                 4.93% (CPI and CPM were part of JD+)

JD(S)         9                  0                 0.79%

The JD vote collapsed in the parts of Northern India where BJP was traditionally strong which included MP and  Chhattisgarh.  The new INC government at the center soon had to deal with the Ram temple riots in late 1992 which led it to dismiss the BJP government in MP which lead to early assembly elections in MP.

MP 1993 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         230             121               41.12% (RPI was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        4                  1.14%

BJP           230               87               40.05%

BJP rebel                        2                  1.30%

JD            167                4                  3.76%

KSM            4                 1                  0.28% (de facto JD splinter)

BSP         198               10                  6.83%

CPI+         48                 1                  1.05% (CPM was part of CPI+)


Chhattisgarh 1993 assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            90              54               40.39%

INC rebel                       2                 2.64%

BJP            90              30               35.52%

BJP rebel                       0                 1.26%

JD             68                0                 2.96%

BSP           88                1                 7.68%

CPI+         31                2                 1.99% (CPM was part of CPI+)

CMM         23                 1                1.54%

INC emerged with a majority over the BJP although the margin was not great.  INC installed the fairly young Digvijaya Singh who is fairly aligned with the Rajiv Gandhi faction of INC as well as coming from a princely family as the new CM of MP.
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Why arent the other factions more economically populist and socially conservative.


While I hoped Modi would be the Reagan or Thatcher of India , I just dont think that possible so he's the best India's got at the moment.

The 1996 LS elections saw significant anti-incumbent surge which hit INC along with an pro-Gandhi clan faction splinter party AIIC led by former MP INC CM Arjun Singh.  The result was the INC losing ground to BJP and leading to a hung parliament.

1996 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               4               28.94%

AIIC+         24               2                 7.25% (INC splinter MPVC was part of AIIC+)

BJP            28              21               42.82%

BSP           21               2                  8.45%

JD               7               0                  1.40%


1996 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 4               36.61%

INC rebel                       1                 2.00%

AIIC         10                 0                 3.31%

BJP          11                 6                37.29%

CPI+         5                  0                 2.83% (JD was part of CPI+)

Given that AIIC had its core in MP this is where AIIC did the most damage to INC.  The BSP surge also ate into the INC dalit vote base.  Despite this INC's strength with tribal area led it to fight BJP to a draw in Chhattisgarh. 

The 1996 LS election led to a JD+ government at the center with INC support to lock out BJP.  This arrangement did not last long and mid-term LS elections were held in 1998.  With Sonia Gandhi taking an active role in INC the pro-Gandhi AIIC rebellion ended and returned to the fold.  The 1998 LS elections saw a surge for BJP in Northern India which washed out the effect of AIIC coming back into INC.

1998 MP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            29               6               38.81%

BJP            29              23               46.17%

BSP           26                0                9.17%

JD             15                0                1.48%

SP+          12                 0               1.05%


1998 Chhattisgarh  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           11                 4               41.10%

BJP           11                 7               44.46%

BSP            9                 0                 7.34%

GGP            6                0                 2.06% (tribal Chhattisgarh regionalism)

CPI            3                 0                  1.83%

The worrying trend for INC here is the rise of BSP which took away enough INC Dalit votes to give the BJP an upper hand even against an fairly united INC.  This will be a harbinger for the future.  As it is overall BJP led alliance came close to a majority as the JD vote collapsed.  JD ally TDP switched sides to give the BJP a government at the center for the first time in its history. 

I think Modi is mostly talk and very little action.  Of course he is contained by the economically populist and socially conservative factions of the BJP.  Talks of economic reform mostly stayed talk.  A lot of the Modi reforms were planned under the UPA government.

My Dad has also had this criticism of Modi but he also said that other factions of  BJP are worse and the INC is just horrible in every way so Modi is the best India’s got at the moment