Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: ObserverIE on January 04, 2018, 10:01:55 AM



Title: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on January 04, 2018, 10:01:55 AM
Another year, another Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/01/03/previews-04-jan-2018/)

Hertsmere, Borehamwood Cowley Hill

Lab 59.8 (+6.4)
Con 32.2 (-14.4)
UKIP 4.8 (+4.8)
Lib Dem 1.7 (+1.7)
Green 1.5 (+1.5)

Lab gain Borehamwood Cowley Hill from Con


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Leftbehind on January 04, 2018, 08:33:32 PM
Cheers to your & Andrew's work then.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on January 04, 2018, 11:27:31 PM

It's Andrew who does the legwork; I just plug numbers into a spreadsheet.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Leftbehind on January 07, 2018, 11:41:39 AM

It's Andrew who does the legwork; I just plug numbers into a spreadsheet.

Even if Andrew's is 90% of the work, your effort recording the year's results should be acknowledged.

Anyway, that's a pretty decisive win for Labour considering the crowded field (who seem to have made little impact).


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on January 11, 2018, 07:02:18 PM
Next installment of the Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/01/09/previews-11-jan-2018/).

Lancashire, Wyre Rural Central

Con 60.0 (-10.9)
Lab 31.8 (+13.9)
Green 8.2 (-3.0)

Wyre, Preesall

Con 55.3 (-12.2)
Lab 44.7 (+12.2)

Kent, Birchington and Rural

Con 56.6 (+4.8)
Lab 19.1 (+3.7)
Lib Dem 12.5 (+1.1)
UKIP 8.0 (-7.4)
Green 3.8 (-2.2)

Thanet, Thanet Villages

Con 49.3 (+21.1)
Lib Dem 24.9 (+24.9)
Lab 16.4 (+4.1)
Green 5.3 (-9.1)
Ind 4.1 (-15.8)



Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on January 17, 2018, 07:32:38 PM
The Holy Word At Home here (https://britainelects.com/2018/01/16/previews-18-jan-2018/).

Rochford, Downhall and Rawreth

Lib Dem 77.0 (+19.4)
Con 23.0 (+5.8)

Bournemouth, Throop and Muscliff

Ind Wilson 31.3
Con 30.0 (-2.4)
Lab 23.6 (+10.9)
Ind Lucas 6.9
Lib Dem 6.3 (+6.3)
Green 1.9 (-9.4)

Bolton, Hulton

Con 49.4 (+16.7)
Lab 40.1 (+3.1)
UKIP 6.5 (-18.0)
Lib Dem 2.3 (-0.2)
Green 1.8 (-1.5)

Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope

Con 53.0 (+5.2)
Lab 24.8 (+4.0)
Lib Dem 22.2 (+3.6)

Ind hold Throop and Muscliff
Con gain Hulton from Lab


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Leftbehind on January 19, 2018, 06:23:56 AM
Quote
This by-election also looks difficult for Labour, whose administration in Bolton has a knack for attracting bad publicity. There will be more on that subject in a future edition of Andrew’s Previews; this piece is already quite long enough. If the Tories can unwind the UKIP vote and capitalise on opposition to the Hulton Park development, then this could be a good opportunity for the first Conservative gain of 2018.
...and so they did. Labour would be lucky to have held this regardless of local circumstances, but it couldn't be helped by the nature of the vacancy.

Edit: With the exception of the non-appearance in Rochford, those are some deceptively strong results for Labour that appear weak.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on January 25, 2018, 05:09:03 PM
A Singular Syllable here (https://britainelects.com/2018/01/25/preview-25-jan-2018/).

Isle of Wight, Central Wight

Con 49.7 (-25.5)
Lib Dem 26.0 (+26.0)
Green 13.0 (-5.9)
Lab 9.2 (+3.3)
UKIP 2.2 (+2.2)


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on February 01, 2018, 06:44:20 PM
This week's Holy Word (http://britainelects.com/2018/02/01/previews-02-feb-2018/).

Sunderland, Pallion

Lib Dem 53.9 (+49.5)
Lab 34.8 (-15.9)
Con 5.4 (-7.2)
UKIP 4.2 (-24.7)
Green 1.7 (-1.7)

Cornwall, Falmouth Smithick

Lab 60.2 (+19.9)
Con 17.2 (-7.2)
Lib Dem 17.2 (-1.7)
Green 5.3 (-11.1)

Lib Dem gain Pallion from Lab


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Leftbehind on February 02, 2018, 05:30:26 PM
A game of two halves, those two!


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on February 08, 2018, 07:14:14 PM
This week's Holy Word is here (http://britainelects.com/2018/02/08/previews-08-feb-2018/).

Eden, Hartside

Con 52.9 (-3.8)
Ind 29.6 (-13.7)
Green 17.5 (+17.5)

South Staffordshire, Codsall South

Con 78.8
Lab 13.2
Green 8.0

East Staffordshire, Stretton (changes in italics since Sep 2017 by-election)

Con 42.5 (-6.3) (-4.7)
Ind 34.8 (+34.8) (+6.6)
Lab 19.3 (+0.5) (+0.1)
UKIP 2.6 (-21.5) (-0.6)
Lib Dem 0.8 (+0.8) (-1.4)

Brighton and Hove, East Brighton (changes in italics since Sep 2016 by-election)

Lab 67.0 (+18.9) (+9.5)
Con 17.1 (-5.9) (-2.8)
Green 11.9 (-4.7) (+0.8)
Lib Dem 4.0 (-4.4) (-0.5)

Staffordshire, Codsall

Con 67.6 (-7.5)
Green 17.4 (+6.7)
Lab 15.0 (+0.8)

Weymouth and Portland, Tophill East

Con 46.9 (+16.7)
Lab 45.9 (+23.0)
Green 7.3 (-5.3)

Weymouth and Portland, Tophill West

Con 53.8 (+13.7)
Lab 37.5 (-22.4)
Green 8.6 (+8.6)

Con hold Codsall South
Con gain Tophill East from Ind
Con hold Tophill West


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Leftbehind on February 11, 2018, 04:33:11 PM
That's a frustrating pair of results in Dorset.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on February 13, 2018, 06:54:57 PM
Holy Paragraph here (http://britainelects.com/2018/02/13/previews-15-feb-2018/).

West Oxfordshire, Carterton South

Con 62.9 (+1.4)
Lib Dem 23.7 (+17.7)
Lab 13.5 (+2.0)

Halton, Halton Castle

Lab 70.3 (-5.7)
Ind 17.9 (+9.5)
Con 11.8 (+11.8)

York, Holgate

Lab 50.0 (+11.2)
Lib Dem 32.3 (+15.0)
Con 11.0 (-12.9)
Green 6.7 (-13.3)

North East Derbyshire, Grassmoor

Lab 48.9 (-8.8)
Con 39.2 (+21.1)
Lib Dem 11.8 (+11.8)

North Norfolk, Worstead

Lib Dem 72.7 (+39.4)
Con 16.9 (-24.9)
Lab 10.4 (-1.9)

Tendring, St Pauls (changes in italics since May 2016 by-election)

Con 39.5 (+8.5) (+12.0)
Ind Andrews 16.7
Ind Hones 14.0 (-7.9)
Lab 11.9 (+11.9) (-1.2)
Lib Dem 8.3 (+8.3) (+8.3)
UKIP 7.4 (-29.1) (-30.1)
Green 2.1 (+2.1) (+2.1)

Epsom and Ewell, Ruxley

Residents 37.2 (-5.0)
Con 31.8 (-2.6)
Lab 24.7 (+11.0)
Lib Dem 6.3 (-3.3)

Teignbridge, Chudleigh (changes in italics since Dec 2016 by-election)

Lib Dem 41.0 (+27.0) (-10.5)
Con 40.3 (+6.2) (+4.7)
Lab 18.7 (+2.2) (+12.6)

Falkirk, Bonnybridge and Larbert

SNP 38.6 (+4.9)
Con 32.4 (+8.1)
Lab 24.2 (+8.5)
Green 3.7 (-0.1)
UKIP 1.0 (+1.0)

SNP
1295
1300
1354
1619
Con
1088
1096
1115
1280
Lab
813
821
858
Green
124
129
UKIP
35

Teignbridge, Dawlish Central and North East

Lib Dem 70.6 (+46.7)
Con 29.4 (-)

East Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers Lancaster

Con 55.6
Lib Dem 22.2
Lab 17.2
Green 3.0
UKIP 2.0

Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers

Con 56.6 (-3.5)
Lab 22.3 (+3.5)
Lib Dem 13.5 (+2.3)
UKIP 4.4 (-5.5)
Green 3.2 (+3.2)

Lancashire, Morecambe North

Con 49.0 (-14.2)
Lib Dem 29.7 (+21.6)
Lab 21.3 (-0.7)

Doncaster, Armthorpe

Lab 75.4 (+34.9)
Ind 24.6

Lib Dem gain Worstead from Con
Con gain St Pauls from Ind elected as UKIP
Lib Dem gain Chudleigh from Con
SNP hold Bonnybridge and Larbert
Lib Dem gain Dawlish Central and North East from Con
Con hold Higham Ferrers Lancaster


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Leftbehind on February 16, 2018, 01:53:25 PM
Despite the deluge there wasn't much to get hopeful about from Labour's perspective, with Labour holding all four seats where they're competitive (with three retained comfortably and one much less so).    


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on February 22, 2018, 08:48:31 PM
Holy Word (incorporating a Flying Circus) here (http://britainelects.com/2018/02/22/previews-22-feb-2018/).

Boston, Old Leake and Wrangle

Con 74.2 (+22.8)
Lab 17.0 (+17.0)
UKIP 6.9 (-41.7)
Blue Rev 1.8 (+1.8)

West Somerset, Minehead South

Lib Dem 43.2 (+43.2)
Con 39.8 (+3.3)
Lab 17.1 (-1.3)

Torfaen, Trevethin

Lab 50.9 (-2.7)
Ind Parker 30.8
Ind Wildgust 15.1
Green 3.3 (+3.3)

North Kesteven, Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hugh's

Con 57.8
Lincs Ind 35.6
Lib Dem 6.6

Hertfordshire, Goffs Oak and Bury Green

Con 59.6 (-5.5)
Lib Dem 20.7 (+14.8)
Lab 16.8 (-0.9)
Green 3.0 (+3.0)

Arun, Marine

Lib Dem 32.7 (+32.7)
Lab 26.7 (+7.3)
Con 25.6 (-0.7)
Ind 14.9

West Dorset, Bridport North

Con 36.0 (+1.7)
Lib Dem 30.0 (-1.2)
Lab 23.0 (+9.3)
Green 11.0 (-9.9)

Dorset, Bridport

Con 39.6 (-)
Lib Dem 34.6 (-2.2)
Lab 16.5 (+4.0)
Green 9.3 (-1.8)

Chichester, Fishbourne

Lib Dem 54.6 (+3.3)
Con 34.9 (-2.3)
Lab 10.5 (+10.5)

Lichfield, Stowe

Con 44.8 (-6.1)
Lab 26.1 (-2.3)
Lib Dem 19.0 (+19.0)
Something New 5.2 (+5.2)
Green 4.9 (-15.8)

Scottish Borders, Selkirkshire

Con 35.7 (-6.4)
Ind Penman 29.7
SNP 19.8 (-2.4)
Ind Gunn 6.3 (-3.5)
Lab 3.8 (+0.1)
Lib Dem 2.7 (-0.6)
Green 2.0 (-1.0)

Con
1247
1251
1262
1276
1307
1342
Ind P
1040
1049
1080
1125
1231
1523
SNP
691
717
729
758
797
Ind G
219
226
238
249
Lab
134
144
158
Lib Dem
95
103
Green
70

Lib Dem gain Minehead South from UKIP elected as Ind
Con gain Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hugh's from Ind
Lib Dem gain Marine from Con
Con gain Bridport North from Lib Dem
Con gain Bridport from Lib Dem
Ind Penman gain Selkirkshire from Con


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on March 01, 2018, 08:48:44 AM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/02/28/previews-01-mar-2018/). Happy Birthday, Andrew.

East Devon, Exmouth Town

Lib Dem 28.2 (-0.2)
Ind 26.6
Con 21.5 (-3.4)
Lab 13.0 (-8.9)
Green 10.7 (-14.0)

Turnout: 12.4

Solihull, Blythe

Con 75.9 (+24.8)
Lab 13.6 (+4.6)
Lib Dem 10.5 (+10.5)

Turnout 15.8

Basingstoke and Deane, Kempshott

Con 58.9 (-5.6)
Lab 31.4 (+12.3)
Lib Dem 9.7 (+9.7)

Turnout 20.6

Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire North

SNP 37.0 (-3.3)
Con 31.7 (+7.7)
Lab 23.7 (-3.0)
Lib Dem 4.0 (-1.1)
Green 3.6 (-0.3)

SNP
769
795
818
980
Con
658
661
693
784
Lab
493
513
538
Lib Dem
84
101
Green
74

Turnout 24.7

SNP hold Clackmannanshire North


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: IceAgeComing on March 01, 2018, 03:56:01 PM
Can't speak for the other by-elections but expect the North Clacks by-election to have an even smaller turnout than normal: I'm next-door to Clackmannanshire and the weather is pretty bad up here.  Might lead to an odd result although an even less representative one than local by-elections tend to be.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Leftbehind on March 01, 2018, 05:11:03 PM
I think the most interesting part of these by-elections will be the comedy turnouts.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on March 08, 2018, 07:09:44 PM
Another week's Holy Word here (https://britainelects.com/2018/03/07/previews-08-mar-2018/).

Harlow, Little Parndon and Hare Street

Lab 62.2 (+7.8)
Con 31.4 (+5.2)
UKIP 6.4 (-13.0)

East Hampshire, Petersfield Bell Hill

Ind 32.6
Lib Dem 28.6 (+14.6)
Con 26.6 (-20.8)
Lab 10.3 (-4.9)
UKIP 2.0 (-10.2)

Tameside, Droylesden East (change in italics since Oct 2017 by-election)

Lab 61.5 (+10.1) (+1.2)
Con 30.5 (+21.4) (-2.2)
Green 6.1 (+0.2) (+2.7)
Lib Dem 1.9 (+1.9) (-1.7)

Dacorum, Northchurch

Lib Dem 59.2 (+40.4)
Con 28.2 (-32.1)
Lab 10.5 (-1.7)
Green 2,1 (-6.6)

Medway, Rochester West

Lab 47.5 (+25.7)
Con 39.5 (-2.8)
Lib Dem 4.7 (+1.3)
Green 4.2 (-5.4)
UKIP 4.1 (-17.5)

Rutland, Oakham South East

Ind 59.5 (+22.2)
Con 40.5 (+0.7)

Bolton, Farnworth

FK First 47.5 (+47.5)
Lab 38.2 (-10.2)
UKIP 6.7 (-29.7)
Con 6.0 (-2.6)
Lib Dem 0.9 (-2.1)
Green 0.7 (-2.8)

Nottingham, Wollaton West

Lab 48.8 (+15.4)
Con 43.4 (+4.9)
Lib Dem 5.3 (-1.3)
Green 1.6 (-9.4)
Elvis 0.9

Ind gain Petersfield Bell Hill from Con
Lib Dem gain Northchurch from Con
Lab gain Rochester West from Con
Ind gain Oakham South East from Con
Farnworth and Kearsley First gain Farnworth from Lab
Lab gain Wollaton West from Con


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Tintrlvr on March 08, 2018, 09:25:27 PM
Rough night for the Tories thus far.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: joevsimp on March 09, 2018, 04:12:49 AM
Impressively bad, the elections in May will be such fun.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Leftbehind on March 09, 2018, 06:54:41 AM
Would've been an excellent night for Labour if not for the shocking Bolton result.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on March 15, 2018, 01:42:30 PM
Holy Word here (https://britainelects.com/2018/03/14/previews-15-mar-2018/).

South Kesteven, Stamford St John's

Con 39.4 (-8.9)
Ind 32.1
Lib Dem 18.8 (+18.8)
Lab 7.9 (+7.9)
Green 1.8 (+1.8)

South Kesteven, Stamford St George's

Con 45.6 (+15.9)
Stamford Ind 25.7 (+7.5)
Lab 16.8 (-0.5)
Lib Dem 10.0 (+10.0)
Green 1.9 (-11.7)

Redcar and Cleveland, Longbeck

Con 32.7 (+4.9)
Lib Dem 26.3 (+11.2)
Lab 22.3 (+4.7)
Ind 18.7

Con gain Longbeck from Ind


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on March 22, 2018, 08:00:48 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/03/21/previews-22-mar-2018/).

Bassetlaw, Worksop South East

Lab 77.3 (+23.4)
Con 15.2 (+15.2)
Lib Dem 7.5 (+7.5)

Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek West

Lab 42.9 (+21.4)
Con 32.6 (+1.0)
Lib Dem 19.2 (+7.5)
Ind 5.4

Cheshire East, Bunbury

Con 53.3 (-16.9)
Lib Dem 27.5 (+27.5)
Lab 14.3 (-3.4)
Green 4.8 (-7.3)

Thurrock, Ockendon

Con 36.2 (+7.8) (wins on toss of coin)
Lab 36.2 (+11.2)
Thurrock Ind 27.6 (+27.6)

Chiltern, Ridgeway

Con 38.2 (+16.7)
Lab 32.8 (+32.8)
Lib Dem 29.0 (+11.7)

Aylesbury Vale, Central and Walton

Lib Dem 40.9 (+18.6)
Con 31.5 (-2.5)
Lab 19.8 (+2.1)
Green 4.5 (-3.8)
Ind 3.3

Midlothian, Penicuik

SNP 35.0 (-0.2)
Con 30.2 (+4.0)
Lab 27.6 (+2.0)
Green 7.2 (+1.7)

SNP
1663
1803
2237
Con
1433
1469
1788
Lab
1310
1414
Green
344

Lab gain Leek West from Con
Con gain Ockendon from Thurrock Ind elected as UKIP
Con gain Ridgeway from Ind
Lib Dem gain Central and Walton from Con
SNP gain Penicuik from Lab


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on March 30, 2018, 12:46:59 AM
A Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/03/29/preview-29-mar-2018/).

Knowsley, Page Moss

Lab 78.2 (+3.7)
Green 8.8 (-16.7)
UKIP 8.1 (+8.1)
Con 4.9 (+4.9)



Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on April 04, 2018, 07:44:34 PM
A more substantial Holy Word here (https://britainelects.com/2018/04/04/previews-05-apr-2018/).

Fylde, Heyhouses

Con 58.1 (+13.1)
Lab 17.9 (-14.2)
Lib Dem 12.2 (-10.7)
Green 11.8 (+11.8)

New Forest, Milton

Con 76.4 (-3.1)
Lib Dem 14.5 (+14.5)
Lab 9.1 (-11.4)

Taunton Deane, Wiveliscombe

Green 44.7 (+31.5)
Lib Dem 29.0 (+16.3)
Con 26.2 (-8.0)

Highland, Caol and Mallaig

Lib Dem 31.1 (+21.6)
SNP 27.1 (+2.9)
Ind Wood 21.4
Con 8.8 (+0.3)
Ind McKinnon 6.9
Ind Campbell 4.6

Lib Dem
658
671
706
791
968
SNP
574
591
615
617
737
Ind W
454
471
539
580
Con
187
188
200
Ind McK
146
176
Ind C
98

Green gain Wiveliscombe from Ind
Lib Dem gain Caol and Mallaig from SNP


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on April 12, 2018, 05:16:35 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/04/11/previews-12-apr-2018/).

Chichester, Rogate

Lib Dem 55.8 (+55.8)
Con 40.1 (-27.3)
Lab 2.6 (+2.6)
Green 1.5 (-18.2)

South Northamptonshire, Middleton Cheney

Con 42.1 (-18.6)
Lib Dem 34.1 (+34.1)
Lab 19.7 (+19.7)
Green 4.1 (+4.1)

St Edmundsbury, St Olaves

Lab 58.6 (+30.9)
Con 24.1 (-8.3)
Ind 12.4
Lib Dem 5.0 (+5.0)

Lib Dem gain Rogate from Con
Lab hold St Olaves


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: aaaa2222 on April 12, 2018, 07:41:02 PM
I'm no master of UK politics, but it seems like the Lib Dems have had quite a run in the local by-elections, without any noticeable uptick in nationwide polling. Any theories as to why this could be? Is this a common occurrence?


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: vileplume on April 13, 2018, 04:25:54 AM
I'm no master of UK politics, but it seems like the Lib Dems have had quite a run in the local by-elections, without any noticeable uptick in nationwide polling. Any theories as to why this could be? Is this a common occurrence?

Yes very common. The Lib Dems usually do far better in local elections than they do in national elections and especially in local by-elections. They were doing very well in local by-elections prior to the 2017 GE but then they lost seats in the local elections and their national vote share fell even further at the GE. The Lib Dems have always been a more 'localist' party than either the Tories or Labour (who are very much 'national' parties) and thus most of their wins in these local by-elections are fought over local issues such as potholes, rubbish collection, trees etc. or the general competence (or lack thereof) of the Tory/Labour run council. These wins have nothing to do with national politics and unfortunately for them people don't choose the government based on 'who'd be most likely to fix the pothole outside my house'.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on April 18, 2018, 08:10:53 PM
This week's Holy Word is here (http://britainelects.com/2018/04/19/previews-19-apr-2018/).

West Berkshire, Thatcham West

Lib Dem 48.4 (+8.9)
Con 30.9 (-18.5)
Lab 7.7 (-3.6)
Green 7.7 (+7.7)
UKIP 5.4 (+5.4)

Warrington, Lymm South

Lib Dem 42.8 (+11.7)
Con 36.2 (-2.6)
Lab 18.3 (-1.7)
UKIP 1.4 (-8.6)
Green 1.3 (+1.3)

Perth and Kinross, Highland

Con 46.7 (+1.3)
SNP 35.9 (-0.6)
Ind Taylor 6.9
Lab 5.8 (+5.8)
Green 2.5 (-1.5)
Lib Dem 1.9 (-1.6)
Ind Baykal 0.3

Con
1907
1908
1923
1930
1977
2084
SNP
1466
1467
1472
1509
1594
1712
Ind T
280
286
299
325
391
Lab
239
240
256
280
Green
104
106
118
Lib Dem
78
78
Ind B
12

Lib Dem gain Thatcham West from Con
Lib Dem gain Lymm South from Con
Con hold Highland


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Tintrlvr on April 18, 2018, 10:33:26 PM
I'm no master of UK politics, but it seems like the Lib Dems have had quite a run in the local by-elections, without any noticeable uptick in nationwide polling. Any theories as to why this could be? Is this a common occurrence?

Yes very common. The Lib Dems usually do far better in local elections than they do in national elections and especially in local by-elections. They were doing very well in local by-elections prior to the 2017 GE but then they lost seats in the local elections and their national vote share fell even further at the GE. The Lib Dems have always been a more 'localist' party than either the Tories or Labour (who are very much 'national' parties) and thus most of their wins in these local by-elections are fought over local issues such as potholes, rubbish collection, trees etc. or the general competence (or lack thereof) of the Tory/Labour run council. These wins have nothing to do with national politics and unfortunately for them people don't choose the government based on 'who'd be most likely to fix the pothole outside my house'.

I think long-term improvements in local presence do help the Lib Dems, and it's clear that the Lib Dems do better in parliamentary elections in seats where they have a significant local elections presence than they do in otherwise similar seats where they have much less/zero presence in local elections. The one thing the local by-elections do indicate is that the Lib Dems are not actually dead as a party and will continue to muddle on rather than vanishing into obscurity. Of course, if the standard of success is performing as well as they did in 1997-2010, that's probably not coming back in the next couple of election cycles at least (although the Lib Dems and their Liberal predecessors went through multiple revival periods basically centered on single leaders, and it could be that they are just one successful leader away from another significant revival).

On a related note, two of the three by-elections this week look ripe for Lib Dem gains. The Tories should hold on to their seat in Highland (probably with the SNP second, though I wouldn't be totally shocked if the SNP managed to win the seat), while I'm going to predict Lib Dem gains from the Tories in both Thatcham West and Lymm.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on May 21, 2018, 01:55:09 PM
Last week's Holy Word here (https://britainelects.com/2018/05/16/previews-17-may-2018/)

Lancaster, Skerton West (changes in italics since September 2017 by-election)

Lab 57.5 (+22.6) (-4.0)
Con 27.4 (+0.6) (-7.2)
Lib Dem 9.3 (+9.3) (+5.3)
Green 5.8 (-3.8) (+5.8)

Lancaster, University and Scotforth Rural (changes in italics since December 2016 by-election)

Lab 46.1 (+9.4) (+11.7) (518, 423)
Green 24.4 (-8.4) (-3.9) (264, 235)
Con 18.0 (-5.8) (-6.4) (184, 184)
Lib Dem 11.5 (+4.8) (-1.4) (120, 114)

Suffolk Coastal, Leiston

Con 42.1 (+9.5)
Lab 23.1 (-1.5)
Ind 20.2
Lib Dem 14.6 (+6.6)

Lab hold one seat in University and Scotforth Rural and win seat held by Lab elected as Green


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on May 30, 2018, 08:56:46 PM
From last week's Holy Words here (http://britainelects.com/2018/05/24/previews-24-may-2018/) and here (http://britainelects.com/2018/05/25/preview-25-may-2018/):

North Kesteven, Kirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme

Lincs Ind 45.9 (+10.4)
Con 44.7 (-19.8)
Lab 5.0 (+5.0)
Lib Dem 4.5 (+4.5)

Broadland, Aylsham (changes in italics since March 2016 by-election)

Lib Dem 46.0 (+19.1) (-2.0)
Con 39.1 (+6.7) (+1.2)
Lab 14.8 (-10.1) (+0.8)

Stockport, Edgeley and Cheadle Heath

Lab 73.9 (+5.8)
Lib Dem 8.8 (+2.9)
Con 8.1 (+0.3)
Green 6.2 (+0.1)
UKIP 3.1 (-9.0)

Bristol, Westbury-on-Trym and Henleaze

Con 42.3 (-0.2)
Lib Dem 39.5 (+10.1)
Lab 13.0 (-2.8)
Green 5.2 (-7.2)

Waverley, Farnham Castle (changes in italics since August 2016 by-election)

Farnham Res 37.9 (+2.4) (-2.7)
Lib Dem 36.1 (+11.0) (+5.4)
Con 18.7 (-5.8) (-5.4)
Lab 4.5 (-10.4) (+4.5)
Ind 2.8

Horsham, Cowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead

Con 68.4 (-2.9)
Lab 16.3 (+16.3)
Lib Dem 15.3 (-13.4)

Tamworth, Glascote

Lab 42.7 (+11.9)
Con 41.7 (+15.2)
UKIP 10.8 (-26.6)
Green 4.8 (+4.8)

Lincs Ind gain Kirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme from Con
Lib Dem gain Aylsham from Con
Con gain Westbury-on-Trym and Henleaze from Lib Dem
Lab hold Glascote


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on June 07, 2018, 10:19:58 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/06/06/previews-07-jun-2018/).

East Staffordshire, Crown

Con 76.1 (-3.3)
Lab 12.1 (-8.5)
Lib Dem 11.8 (+11.8)

Mid Devon, Cranmore

Con 45.1 (+0.6)
Lib Dem 32.5 (+32.5)
Lab 22.4 (-3.0)

South Oxfordshire, Benson and Crowhurst

Lib Dem 57.4 (+32.4)
Con 36.0 (-12.4)
Lab 6.6 (-5.4)

Lib Dem gain Benson and Crowhurst from Con


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on June 14, 2018, 05:26:15 PM
A smaller than usual Holy Word here (https://britainelects.com/2018/06/13/previews-14-jun-2018/).

Doncaster, Town

Lab 46.8 (+9.3)
Yorks 24.6 (-1.8)
Green 12.7 (-1.3)
Con 11.2 (-10.9)
Lib Dem 2.8 (+2.8)
Ind 1.9

Southwark, London Bridge and West Bermondsey

Lib Dem 44.4 (1340, 1281, 1270)
Lab 41.3 (1239, 1215, 1171)
Con 7.4 (221, 219, 205)
Green 6.9 (215, 191)


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on June 22, 2018, 10:37:15 AM
This week's Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/06/20/previews-21-jun-2018/).

Fenland, Birch

Con 62.1 (+5.9)
Lib Dem 21.5 (+6.9)
Ind 16.4

Basildon, Lee Chapel North

Lab 57.4 (+1.7)
Con 25.0 (-1.5)
UKIP 13.6 (-4.1)
BNP 3.9 (+3.9)

Watford, Oxhey

Lib Dem 55.3 (-3.5)
Con 28.1 (+4.7)
Lab 16.6 (-1.1)

Basildon, Pitsea South East

Lab 46.1 (+6.8)
Con 45.6 (-0.5)
UKIP 8.3 (-2.3)

West Somerset, Alcombe

Lib Dem 39.2 (+39.2)
Con 27.1 (+0.9)
Ind 19.9
Lab 13.8 (-5.4)

Charnwood, Quorn and Mountsorrel Castle

Con 51.5 (-8.7)
Lab 21.8 (-3.5)
Lib Dem 16.7 (+16.7)
UKIP 10.0 (-4.5)

South Northamptonshire, Whittlewood

Lib Dem 56.7
Con 36.5
Lab 6.8

Cherwell, Bicester West

Ind 40.5 (+1.0)
Con 33.0 (+12.3)
Lab 20.2 (+4.6)
Green 3.3 (-4.0)
Lib Dem 3.0 (+3.0)

South Northamptonshire, Astwell

Con 76.9 (-0.9)
Lab 23.1 (+0.9)

Brent, Willesden Green

Lab 69.8 (+27.2) (1683, 1679, 1618)
Green 11.1 (-2.9) (289, 256, 250)
Con 10.3 (+3.2) (280, 237, 218)
Lib Dem 8.8 (-4.9) (254, 189, 184)

Basingstoke and Deane, Kempshott

Con 60.4 (-6.4)
Lab 32.4 (+11.2)
Lib Dem 7.2 (-4.8)

Lab gain Pitsea South East from UKIP
Lib Dem gain Alcombe from UKIP
Lib Dem gain Whittlewood from Con
Ind gain Bicester West from Con


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on June 29, 2018, 10:06:54 AM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/06/28/previews-28-jun-2018/).

Leicestershire, Syston Ridgeway

Con 59.7 (+2.0)
Lab 18.5 (-2.3)
Lib Dem 11.0 (+5.0)
Green 7.2 (-1.2)
UKIP 3.6 (-3.5)

North Kesteven, Skellingthorpe

Lincs Ind 45.7 (+45.7)
Con 26.4 (-4.4)
Lab 17.0 (+17.0)
Lib Dem 10.9 (+3.4)

North Kesteven, North Hykeham Mill (changes in italics since July 2015 by-election)

Con 49.7 (-5.4) (+9.6)
Lincs Ind 22.6 (-22.3) (-2.6)
Lab 22.1 (+22.1) (-0.5)
Lib Dem 5.7 (+5.7) (+2.6)

North Devon, Fremington

Ind 50.8 (+6.7)
Con 31.3 (+12.6)
Lib Dem 10.5 (+10.5)
Lab 5.7 (+5.7)
Green 1.7 (-9.8)

Lincs Ind gain Skellingthorpe from Ind


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on July 05, 2018, 10:58:20 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/07/05/previews-05-jul-2018/).

Lichfield, Curborough

Lab 60.4 (+27.6)
Con 33.0 (-8.6)
Lib Dem 6.6 (+6.6)

Bath and North East Somerset, Kingsmead

Lib Dem 41.1 (+12.7)
Lab 24.6 (+10.2)
Con 21.3 (-6.4)
Green 13.0 (-10.6)

Shropshire, Shifnal South and Cosford

Con 38.3 (-18.8)
Ind Mitchell 22.2 (-9.3)
Ind Carey 21.9
Lib Dem 17.7 (+6.3)

Lab gain Curborough from Con
Lib Dem gain Kingsmead from Con


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on July 11, 2018, 08:41:37 PM
Bumper Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/07/12/previews-12-jul-2018/).

East Dorset, Verwood East

Con 75.1
Lab 24.9

Elmbridge, Oxshott and Stoke D'Abernon

Con 72.0 (-4.7)
Lib Dem 25.7 (+9.7)
UKIP 2.3 (+0.1)

Hartlepool, Rural West

Con 45.4 (-13.0)
Ind 36.5 (+18.5)
Lab 12.3 (-5.4)
Green 5.8 (-0.1)

Rutland, Oakham South West

Ind 29.6
Lib Dem 29.6 (+29.6)
Con 27.3 (-22.1)
Lab 13.4 (+13.4)

Barnsley, Old Town

Lab 44.2 (-10.6)
D&V 27.3 (+27.3)
Con 12.7 (-2.5)
Lib Dem 10.0 (+2.5)
Yorks 3.8 (+3.8)
BNP 2.0 (+2.0)

Darlington, Cockerton

Lab 51.0 (+9.5)
Con 22.0 (-3.4)
Lib Dem 9.6 (-5.9)
Ind 8.5
FB 5.8 (+5.8)
Green 3.1 (-14.5)

Waveney, Southwold and Reydon

Lib Dem 71.8 (+71.8)
Con 21.8 (-28.7)
Lab 5.5 (-12.8)
UKIP 1.3 (-14.7)

Lewes, Chailey and Wivelsfield

Con 53.6 (+5.6)
Lib Dem 30.8 (+8.3)
Lab 9.9 (+9.9)
Green 5.7 (-8.3)

Waveney, Pakefield

Con 43.8 (+9.4)
Lab 40.9 (-4.8)
UKIP 7.9 (+7.9)
Green 4.4 (-5.3)
Lib Dem 3.0 (-7.2)

Norfolk, Yare and All Saints

Con 64.8 (-7.9)
Lab 22.9 (+10.6)
Lib Dem 12.3 (-2.6)

Con hold Verwood East
Ind gain Oakham South West (by drawing of lots) from Con
Lib Dem gain Southwold and Reydon from Con
Con gain Pakefield from Lab


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on July 19, 2018, 07:50:42 PM
Holy Word/Gair Sanctaidd here (http://britainelects.com/2018/07/18/previews-19-jul-2018/).

Carmarthenshire, Saron

PC 65.2 (+14.7)
Lab 20.9 (-14.1)
Con 12.7 (-1.6)
Lib Dem 1.2 (+1.2)

Oxford, Headington

Lib Dem 60.9 (-0.4)
Lab 26.9 (-0.2)
Con 8.0 (+1.7)
Green 4.3 (-1.1)

Bury, Besses

Lab 51.1 (-8.6)
Con 36.2 (+12.9)
Eng Dem 3.7 (-3.4)
Lib Dem 3.6 (-1.3)
Green 2.8 (-2.2)
UKIP 2.5 (+2.5)

West Lancashire, Hesketh-with-Becconsall

Con 41.2 (-18.6)
Lab 34.9 (+4.0)
Ind 23.8

Milton Keynes, Bletchley East

Lab 50.9 (+3.1)
Con 38.5 (-0.7)
Green 4.9 (-3.1)
UKIP 3.8 (+3.8)
Lib Dem 1.9 (-3.1)

Northamptonshire, St George

Lab 44.6 (+4.3)
Lib Dem 30.0 (+0.1)
Con 15.1 (-7.2)
UKIP 5.9 (-1.6)
Green 4.4 (+4.4)


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on July 26, 2018, 08:05:06 PM
Another weekly installment of Holy Word/Yr Gair Sanctaidd here (http://britainelects.com/2018/07/25/previews-26-jul-2018).

West Lancashire, Knowsley

Lab 40.8 (-10.1)
Our West Lancs 36.1 (+20.7)
Con 23.2 (-10.6)

New Forest, Fawley, Blackfield and Langley

Con 58.4 (+15.9)
Lib Dem 41.6 (+29.3)

Thanet, Birchington South

Con 63.6 (+35.1)
Lab 25.0 (+10.6)
Lib Dem 11.4 (+5.7)

Torridge, Hartland and Bradworthy (changes in italics since June 2017 by-election)

Con 58.5 (+58.5) (+58.5)
Lib Dem 29.3 (+29.3) (-28.2)
Green 12.2 (-12.7) (-30.3)

North East Lincolnshire, Freshney

Lab 41.3 (+0.7)
Con 38.8 (-6.2)
Ind 13.8
UKIP 4.7 (-4.5)
Green 1.4 (-2.9)

Plymouth, Stoke

Lab 52.8 (+0.3)
Con 36.3 (+2.9)
Lib Dem 6.4 (-1.4)
Action for Plymouth 4.5 (+4.5)

Merthyr Tydfil, Gurnos

Ind Davies 40.8 (-9.9)
Lab 40.0 (-9.3)
Ind Singh 15.7
Con 3.5 (+3.5)

Con gain Birchington South from Ind elected as UKIP
Con gain Hartland and Bradworthy from Lib Dem (Lib Dem by-election gain from UKIP)
Lab hold Freshney
Ind gain Gurnos from Lab


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on August 02, 2018, 04:20:03 PM
This week's Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/08/01/previews-02-aug-2018/).

Fylde, Ansdell

Con 72.4 (+22.5)
Lab 27.6 (+4.7)

Peterborough, Orton Longueville

Con 36.5 (-1.4)
Lab 33.7 (+1.2)
Lib Dem 12.1 (+4.4)
Green 10.3 (+2.7)
UKIP 7.3 (-7.0)

Kings Lynn and West Norfolk, Snettisham

Con 77.4 (+3.9)
Lib Dem 8.3 (+8.3)
Green 8.2 (+8.2)
UKIP 6.1 (+6.1)


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on August 09, 2018, 05:46:43 PM
This week's Holy Syllable (translated from the Cornish) here (https://britainelects.com/2018/08/09/preview-09-aug-2018/).

Cornwall, Newquay Treviglas

Con 45.4 (+13.6)
Lib Dem 38.3 (-29.9)
Lab 16.4 (+16.4)

Con gain Newquay Treviglas from Lib Dem


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on August 10, 2018, 10:39:11 AM
Lib Dem collapse in Cornwall is really staggering, it still hasn't sunk in yet, for decades the liberals/LibDems dominanted Cornwall and devon,
Labour was never taken seriously here..  
former LibDem voters are flocking to Labour..

Would it not be more accurate to state that the Liberal voters at least in Cornwall are split in close to equal parts to the Conservatives and Labour.  It was a Conservative gain from the Liberals that gave them a victory was it not?

Looking at all of the local results this year including the general local elections in May it seems that the voters are very conflicted, as the parties are very conflicted.  Both major parties have deep divisions.  The Liberals are just not a major force in the the actual general election. They are mainly a home for liberally leaning protest voters. Ukip remains primarily an anti EU force. 

Generally the political world in the whole western world is in total flux. I maintain it has to do with the mass migrations of people. But the flux also involves many cultural and economic disagreements.

Most of you can guess what side I take in dealing with the flux.  But taking sides is not the purpose of this post.  The purpose is to point out the flux.  It is probably going to take many years to resolve everything.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on August 16, 2018, 04:32:47 PM
A glimpse of the Holy Word of the future (from 20182, to be exact) here (http://britainelects.com/2018/08/16/previews-16-aug-20182/).

Neath Port Talbot, Gwynfi

Ind Jones 57.8 (+13.9)
PC 15.7 (+15.7)
Lab 12.9 (-43.2)
Ind Joshua 9.7
Ind Paul 3.0
Con 0.9 (+0.9)

Bury, East

Lab 64.2 (+4.8)
Con 25.2 (-8.9)
UKIP 4.8 (+4.8)
Green 3.5 (-3.1)
Lib Dem 2.2 (+2.2)

North Yorkshire, Knaresborough

Lib Dem 54.9 (+19.2)
Con 35.2 (-3.0)
Lab 9.9 (-1.1)

Ind gain Gwynfi from Lab
Lib Dem gain Knaresborough from Con


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on August 23, 2018, 07:56:52 AM
This week's Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/08/22/previews-23-aug-2018/).

Rushcliffe, Gotham

Con 40.4 (-12.6)
Lab 31.3 (+7.3)
Ind 18.2
Lib Dem 7.2 (+7.2)
Green 2.8 (+2.8)

North Warwickshire, Newton Regis and Warton

Con 52.2 (+2.2)
Lab 47.8 (+20.1)

Knowsley, Halewood South

Lab 51.6 (+5.8)
Ind 39.7
Lib Dem 6.0 (+6.0)
Con 2.8 (-4.1)

East Hertfordshire, Watton-at-Stone

Lib Dem 67.0 (+67.0)
Con 30.1 (-36.3)
Lab 2.9 (-7.3)

Wirral, Bromborough

Lab 47.1 (-14.0)
Con 28.1 (+6.0)
Lib Dem 17.1 (+6.0)
Ind 5.5
Green 2.2 (-3.5)

Cornwall, Bude

Lib Dem 53.2 (+1.0)
Ind 25.0
Con 13.9 (-24.2)
Lab 7.8 (-1.9)

Lab hold Halewood South
Lib Dem gain Watton-at-Stone from Con


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on August 30, 2018, 11:22:25 PM
Holy Syllable here (http://britainelects.com/2018/08/30/previews-30-aug-2018/).

Sevenoaks, Farningham, Horton Kirby & South Darenth

Con 55.7 (-3.3)
Lib Dem 26.7 (+26.7)
Lab 17.6 (-2.8)


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: Tintrlvr on August 31, 2018, 10:07:13 AM
It appears the lib Dems are winning over the "professional class" votes, the kind of votes David Cameron been trying so hard to win over back in 2005 ....

I mean, to some degree. This seat was Lib Dem-held in the aughts, though.


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on September 07, 2018, 06:00:32 PM
This week's Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/09/04/previews-06-sep-2018/).

Tameside, Ashton Victoria

Lab 52.5 (-4.9)
Green 26.4 (+12.7)
Con 21.1 (-7.8)

Fife, Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay

Con 37.3 (+0.7)
SNP 28.1 (-2.7)
Lab 12.0 (-4.8)
Lib Dem 9.1 (+4.1)
Ind Collins 8.4
Green 4.2 (+0.7)
Ind Macintyre 0.6
Lbt 0.2 (+0.2)

Con
2309
2312
2316
2330
2455
2615
2839
SNP
1741
1741
1744
1840
1950
2076
2327
Lab
744
746
747
794
867
1058
Lib Dem
566
568
573
631
738
Ind C
521
524
545
565
Green
257
257
258
Ind M
40
41
Lbt
13

Carlisle, Denton Holme

Lab 62.5 (+1.4)
Con 24.5 (-3.4)
Green 7.5 (-3.5)
UKIP 5.5 (+5.5)

Cumbria, Denton Holme

Lab 59.1 (-0.9)
Con 27.6 (+0.6)
Green 8.9 (+1.9)
UKIP 4.4 (-1.6)

Con gain Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay from Lab



Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on September 13, 2018, 02:18:59 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/09/11/previews-13-sep-2018/).

Charnwood, Birstall Wanlip (change in italics since May 2017 by-election)

Con 47.1 (+6.2) (+5.8)
Lab 32.6 (+5.1) (+9.9)
Lib Dem 12.3 (-19.3) (-20.0)
UKIP 4.8 (+4.8) (+4.8)
Green 3.3 (+3.3) (+3.3)

Pembrokeshire, Pembroke: St. Mary North

Ind Harvey 32.5 (-5.9)
Ind Bush 13.7
Ind Nutting 13.4
Lab 10.6 (-11.6)
Ind Boucher 10.2
Con 7.8 (-31.7)
Ind Edwards 7.3
Ind Williams 4.5

New Forest, Pennington

Con 42.0 (-11.6)
Lib Dem 37.6 (+11.5)
Ind 12.2
Lab 8.2 (-12.1)

Cambridge, Petersfield

Lab 47.9 (-10.4)
Lib Dem 36.4 (+16.4)
Green 9.4 (-3.5)
Con 6.3 (-2.5)

Maidstone, Headcorn

Con 57.3 (-17.5)
Lib Dem 34.1 (+19.6)
Lab 5.3 (-5.5)
Green 3.3 (+3.3)

Lambeth, Coldharbour

Lab 58.2 (+3.0)
Green 30.5 (+12.3)
Lib Dem 5.0 (+0.5)
Con 4.0 (-1.3)
WEP 1.6 (+1.6)
UKIP 0.7 (+0.7)

Ind gain Pembroke: St. Mary North from Con


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on September 20, 2018, 09:35:07 PM
Holy Word here (https://britainelects.com/2018/09/19/previews-20-sep-2018/).

East Devon, Ottery St. Mary Rural

EDA 59.4 (+3.4)
Con 33.1 (-10.9)
Lib Dem 4.0 (+4.0)
Green 1.9 (+1.9)
Lab 1.6 (+1.6)

Luton, Limbury

Lab 48.3 (-13.5)
Con 27.7 (-10.5)
Lib Dem 24.0 (+24.0)

Wyre Forest, Bewdley and Rock

Con 51.8 (+6.2)
Lab 34.5 (+9.3)
Lib Dem 7.7 (+3.8)
Green 6.0 (+2.1)

Epsom and Ewell, Nonsuch

Residents 68.0 (+8.7)
Con 20.2 (-5.1)
Lib Dem 8.2 (-0.4)
Lab 3.6 (-3.2)

Winchester, Upper Meon Valley

Con 51.6 (-18.0)
Lib Dem 44.9 (+24.0)
Lab 1.9 (-7.6)
Green 1.5 (+1.5)

Suffolk Coastal, Wenhaston and Westleton

Con 50.6 (-2.7)
Lib Dem 40.0 (+16.4)
Green 9.4 (+9.4)


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on September 27, 2018, 11:04:52 PM
Another Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/09/25/previews-27-sep-2018/)

Salford, Eccles

Lab 54.6 (-5.7)
Con 24.1 (+2.1)
Lib Dem 7.9 (+2.1)
Green 6.3 (-0.1)
UKIP 5.1 (+0.5)
WEP 2.0 (+2.0)

Nottingham, Clifton North

Con 47.7 (+13.8)
Lab 33.8 (-5.0)
Nott Ind 11.2 (+11.2)
Lib Dem 3.3 (+3.3)
Green 2.3 (+2.3)
Elvis 1.7 (+1.7)

Lichfield, Stowe (changes in italics from Feb 2018 by-election)

Con 44.1 (-7.0) (-0.7)
Lab 38.9 (+10.6) (+12.8)
Lib Dem 17.0 (+17.0) (-2.0)

Con gain Clifton North from Lab



Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on October 04, 2018, 09:15:24 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/10/03/previews-04-oct-2018/).

Chesterfield, Moor

Lib Dem 47.1 (+14.1)
Lab 39.4 (-11.3)
Con 7.4 (-8.9)
UKIP 6.1 (+6.1)

Cambridgeshire, Soham North and Isleham

Con 48.8 (-17.4)
Lib Dem 30.0 (+12.6)
Lab 10.9 (-5.4)
Ind 10.4

Hambleton, Thirsk

Con 65.4 (+0.1)
Lab 24.2 (+24.2)
Yorks 10.4 (+10.4)

Lib Dem gain Moor from Lab


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on October 11, 2018, 07:36:00 PM
A very musical Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/10/10/previews-11-oct-2018/).

Adur, Southlands

Lab 45.9 (+4.1)
Con 40.5 (-0.2)
Green 13.5 (+7.9)

Halton, Ditton

Lab 73.5 (+11.6)
Con 15.4 (+15.4)
Lib Dem 11.1 (+11.1)

West Lancashire, Tanhouse

Lab 72.3 (-12.8)
Ind 20.1
Con 7.6 (-7.3)

Hartlepool, Hart

Ind 44.1 (+0.1)
Lab 40.2 (+1.4)
Con 13.8 (-3.4)
Green 1.9 (+1.9)

Warrington, Penketh and Cuerdley

Ind 36.1
Lab 31.8 (-20.6)
Con 22.1 (-16.9)
Lib Dem 4.6 (-4.0)
UKIP 3.2 (+3.2)
Green 2.2 (+2.2)

Lab gain Southlands from UKIP
Ind gain Hart from Lab
Ind gain Penketh and Cuerdley from Lab


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on October 18, 2018, 08:02:54 AM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/10/18/previews-18-oct-2018/).

Hackney, Victoria

Lab 57.6 (-11.3)
Lib Dem 19.2 (+10.6)
Green 13.0 (-1.8)
Con 6.5 (-1.2)
WEP 3.7 (+3.7)

Oxfordshire, Iffley Fields and St Marys

Lab 48.6 (+1.7)
Green 45.4 (+4.7)
Con 4.2 (-1.4)
Lib Dem 1.8 (-5.0)


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on October 27, 2018, 10:13:50 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/10/24/previews-25-oct-2018/).

North Lanarkshire, Coatbridge South

Lab 41.5 (+12.0)
SNP 41.1 (-1.6)
Con 15.1 (+3.2)
Green 1.4 (+1.4)
UKIP 0.4 (+0.4)
Lib Dem 0.4 (+0.4)

Lab
1355
1360
1364
1380
1549
SNP
1343
1344
1346
1360
1405
Con
492
494
496
499
Green
47
50
51
UKIP
14
14
Lib Dem
13

Ashford, Kennington

Con 41.5 (-6.7)
Ashford Ind 38.2 (+23.2)
Lab 14.3 (+1.8)
Green 6.1 (+6.1)

South Derbyshire, Linton

Con 63.1 (+21.7)
Lab 32.0 (+2.7)
Lib Dem 4.9 (+0.6)

Suffolk, Bosmere

Con 45.5 (-0.1)
Lib Dem 44.2 (+5.0)
Lab 10.2 (+2.3)

Hertfordshire, Three Rivers Rural

Lib Dem 53.4 (+9.6)
Con 38.0 (-9.0)
Lab 4.2 (-)
UKIP 2.5 (+0.6)
Green 2.0 (-1.0)

East Dorset, Ferndown Central

Con 59.9 (+4.4)
Lib Dem 23.7 (+23.7)
UKIP 16.4 (-11.5)

Mendip, Wells St Thomas'

Lib Dem 48.8 (+4.8)
Con 40.5 (+5.4)
Lab 10.8 (+10.8)

Sutton, Belmont

Con 46.7 (-11.5)
Lib Dem 37.6 (+12.3)
Lab 10.7 (-5.8)
Green 2.2 (+2.2)
UKIP 1.8 (+1.8)
CPA 1.1 (+1.1)

Dorset, Ferndown

Con 61.3 (-6.7)
Lib Dem 21.1 (+10.5)
UKIP 17.6 (+1.2)

Basingstoke and Deane, Norden

Lab 68.2 (+2.6)
Con 21.2 (-2.5)
Ind 5.9
Lib Dem 4.7 (-0.2)

Lab hold Coatbridge South
Lib Dem gain Three Rivers Rural from Con
Lib Dem win Wells St Thomas from Con elected as Lib Dem


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on November 01, 2018, 08:31:58 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/10/30/previews-01-nov-2018/).

South Gloucestershire, Dodington

Lib Dem 49.3 (+8.6)
Con 39.4 (+17.3)
Lab 11.2 (-0.7)

Newham, Boleyn

Lab 74.8 (+1.7)
Con 14.2 (-0.8)
Green 7.5 (-4.4)
Lib Dem 3.6 (+3.6)

Kirklees, Denby Dale

Lab 46.7 (+3.8)
Con 43.0 (-4.2)
Lib Dem 7.4 (+4.6)
Green 3.0 (-4.1)

Lab gain Denby Dale from Con


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on November 08, 2018, 08:46:38 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/11/07/previews-08-nov-2018/).

Harlow, Netteswell

Lab 50.2 (-0.7)
Con 25.6 (-13.1)
Harlow All 10.0 (+10.0)
UKIP 9.9 (+3.7)
Lib Dem 4.3 (+0.1)

Torridge, Holsworthy

Con 56.4 (+15.7)
Ind 25.4
Lib Dem 12.2 (-6.6)
Lab 6.1 (+6.1)

Harlow, Bush Fair

Lab 45.0 (-)
Con 38.1 (-0.8)
UKIP 8.5 (-2.5)
Harlow All 5.2 (+5.2)
Lib Dem 3.2 (-1.8)

Ealing, Dormers Wells

Lab 72.1 (+1.6)
Con 16.6 (+1.2)
Lib Dem 7.3 (+3.7)
Green 4.1 (-3.5)


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on November 17, 2018, 07:44:57 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/11/15/previews-15-nov-2018/).

Bassetlaw, East Retford West

Lab 49.9 (+14.1)
Con 33.5 (+4.2)
Lib Dem 16.5 (+3.4)

Oxfordshire, Grove and Wantage

Lib Dem 47.9 (+2.3)
Con 36.0 (-1.0)
Lab 11.4 (+2.7)
Green 4.6 (-4.1)

Stroud, Dursley

Lab 50.5 (+15.3)
Con 40.0 (+15.4)
Green 5.1 (-9.8)
Lib Dem 4.5 (-20.7)

Kent, Canterbury North

Con 42.3 (-12.4)
Lib Dem 23.6 (+7.1)
Lab 20.6 (+4.1)
Green 4.9 (-1.9)
Ind 4.8
UKIP 3.7 (-2.0)


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on November 22, 2018, 02:08:51 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/11/22/previews-22-nov-2018/).

Wirral, Upton

Lab 61.3 (+3.1)
Con 29.0 (+0.4)
Green 6.2 (-0.5)
Lib Dem 3.4 (-0.8)

Windsor and Maidenhead, Datchet

Con 54.2 (-4.9)
NFPP 23.0 (+23.0)
Lab 15.6 (-6.4)
Lib Dem 5.0 (-13.9)
Green 2.2 (+2.2)

Westminster, Lancaster Gate

Con 47.2 (-1.5)
Lab 35.4 (-1.0)
Lib Dem 14.2 (-0.7)
Green 3.2 (+3.2)

Enfield, Bush Hill Park

Con 52.5 (+12.7)
Lab 28.2 (-8.3)
Lib Dem 10.7 (+0.8)
Green 4.2 (-6.8)
WEP 2.7 (+2.7)
Ind 1.7


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on November 30, 2018, 07:37:12 PM
Holy Word here (http://britainelects.com/2018/11/28/previews-29-nov-2018/).

Oldham, Failsworth East

Lab 58.5 (+5.3)
Con 29.0 (+0.5)
Ind 8.1
UKIP 2.8 (+2.8)
Lib Dem 1.6 (+0.5)

Buckinghamshire, Aylesbury North-West

Lib Dem 39.3 (+9.5)
Con 30.5 (+6.0)
Lab 25.6 (+2.9)
Green 4.6 (+1.3)

Welwyn Hatfield, Welwyn West

Con 58.7 (+6.8)
Lib Dem 36.9 (+36.9)
Lab 4.4 (-5.0)

Oxfordshire, Wheatley

Lib Dem 61.0 (+15.8)
Con 31.2 (-11.7)
Lab 7.9 (-4.0)

Northampton, Delapre and Briar Hill

Lab 43.4 (+17.3)
Con 26.0 (+2.4)
Ind 19.8
Lib Dem 6.3 (-10.0)
Green 4.5 (+4.5)

Warwickshire, Stratford North

Lib Dem 40.7 (+16.5)
Con 28.3 (-0.1)
Stratford First 16.0 (-17.1)
Lab 8.3 (-0.9)
Green 6.7 (+1.6)

Bromley, Kelsey and Eden Park

Con 45.2 (-0.5)
Lab 29.1 (+2.3)
Lib Dem 17.6 (+4.2)
UKIP 6.1 (+2.2)
Green 2.0 (-8.1)

Lib Dem gain Stratford North from Stratford First


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on December 26, 2018, 12:49:14 AM
Apologies for missing the last few weeks of postings but the combined pressure of work, other commitments and the aftermath of an operation meant that I didn't really have time until now.

To begin with the week of 6 December.

Holy Word here (https://britainelects.com/2018/12/05/previews-06-dec-2018/).

Oxford, Wolvercote

Lib Dem 60.5 (-0.5)
Con 24.5 (+1.0)
Lab 9.8 (-0.1)
Green 5.2 (-0.5)

Leicester, Belgrave

Lab 86.6 (+17.4)
Con 6.5 (-12.0)
Lib Dem 3.8 (+3.8)
Green 3.1 (-3.0)

Surrey, The Byfleets

Ind 48.6 (+16.2)
Con 33.7 (-7.7)
Lib Dem 13.3 (-4.2)
UKIP 4.4 (+1.1)

Highland, Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh

SNP 33.1 (+7.0)
Con 26.0 (+7.6)
Ind Greene 15.6 (+3.9)
Green 9.0 (-2.2)
Lib Dem 8.0 (-5.4)
Lab 4.4 (-0.7)
Ind Davis 3.3
UKIP 0.4 (+0.4)
Lbt 0.2 (+0.2)

SNP
1318
1320
1322
1327
1354
1397
1575
1798
Con
1037
1038
1043
1061
1071
1147
1186
1374
Ind G
622
624
627
677
699
785
905
Green
359
359
359
364
411
483
Lib Dem
320
320
322
346
379
Lab
174
174
175
179
Ind D
131
132
133
UKIP
16
18
Lbt
8

Ind gain The Byfleets from Con
SNP gain Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh from Lib Dem


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on December 26, 2018, 08:59:28 AM
One by-election on Wednesday 12 December. Holy Word here (https://britainelects.com/2018/12/11/previews-12-13-dec-2018/).

Ashfield, Sutton Junction and Harlow Wood

Ashfield Ind 81.9 (+81.9)
Lab 9.3 (-28.6)
Con 4.6 (-20.0)
D&V 2.5 (+2.5)
UKIP 1.2 (+1.2)
Lib Dem 0.5 (-37.0)

Ashfield Ind win Sutton Junction and Harlow Wood held by Ashfield Ind elected as Lab


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on December 26, 2018, 03:38:27 PM
Holy Word for December 13 here (http://here).

Harlow, Toddbrook

Lab 51.1 (-2.6)
Con 34.3 (-0.3)
UKIP 9.8 (+3.3)
Lib Dem 4.8 (+4.8)

Haringey, West Green

Lab 56.6 (-11.0)
Lib Dem 27.6 (+20.6)
Green 10.8 (-0.1)
Con 5.1 (-3.7)

Middlesbrough, Brambles Farm and Thorntree

Lab 58.4 (+9.7)
Ind 28.7 (+9.6)
Con 8.0 (-0.5)
Lib Dem 4.9 (+4.9)

Dumfries and Galloway, Dee and Glenkens

Con 45.9 (+12.4)
SNP 28.0 (+8.4)
Ind 15.5
Green 9.3 (+3.0)
UKIP 1.3 (+1.3)

Con
1682
1704
1740
1956
SNP
1024
1026
1183
1357
Ind
569
575
651
Green
342
349
UKIP
46

Con hold Dee and Glenkens


Title: Re: UK local by-elections, 2018
Post by: ObserverIE on December 26, 2018, 09:32:30 PM
Finally for this year, the Holy Word for December 20 is here (https://britainelects.com/2018/12/18/previews-20-dec-2018/).

Charnwood, Anstey

Con 50.8 (+19.0)
Lab 49.2 (+35.6)

Cumbria, Kent Estuary

Lib Dem 62.0 (+9.0)
Con 29.9 (-7.2)
Green 4.9 (-1.1)
Lab 3.1 (-0.7)

South Lakeland, Arnside and Milnthorpe

Lib Dem 59.4 (+3.8)
Con 31.9 (-)
Green 5.6 (-1.7)
Lab 3.1 (-2.2)

Con gain Anstey from Lib Dem