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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: LimoLiberal on January 07, 2018, 04:06:19 pm



Title: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 07, 2018, 04:06:19 pm
Election results:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 07, 2018, 04:10:58 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: YPestis25 on January 07, 2018, 04:16:25 pm
Last time this seat was challenged in 2012, the Republican won by nearly 30 points. Further, this is a district which despite containing a significant suburban vote, also contains a share of rural, Appalachian, southwest Pennsylvania, where Trump's support should be much more durable than elsewhere. With that in mind, I'd say these numbers aren't bad at all.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Mondale on January 07, 2018, 04:16:35 pm
Poll taken before Wolff book


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: It's Trotsky Time on January 07, 2018, 04:22:54 pm


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 07, 2018, 04:23:50 pm
The book that has mixed reviews at best.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 07, 2018, 04:25:25 pm

That's going to change how Americans view Tax Reform?


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Mondale on January 07, 2018, 04:25:53 pm

The only reviewer that matters is the American public and they are buying the book in droves using money from the tax cuts everyone already forgot about (tax reform bump = dead)


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 07, 2018, 04:28:30 pm
Right where Jones was two months before the election. 8)


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 07, 2018, 04:29:27 pm
Right where Jones was two months before the election. 8)

Trump was not +15 in Alabama....


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on January 07, 2018, 04:33:08 pm
With all due respect you are the biggest hack on this site limbo


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 07, 2018, 04:37:05 pm

The only reviewer that matters is the American public and they are buying the book in droves using money from the tax cuts everyone already forgot about (tax reform bump = dead)
Liberals who hate trump are buying it.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Mondale on January 07, 2018, 04:40:19 pm

The only reviewer that matters is the American public and they are buying the book in droves using money from the tax cuts everyone already forgot about (tax reform bump = dead)
Liberals who hate trump are buying it.

Doesn't matter. All we are talking about now is Trump's brain damage, mental deficiencies, and the gorilla channel

Everyone already forgot about tax reform. Not looking good. It will reflect in the polls very soon. Expect generic ballot to be D+20


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 07, 2018, 04:42:40 pm

The only reviewer that matters is the American public and they are buying the book in droves using money from the tax cuts everyone already forgot about (tax reform bump = dead)
Liberals who hate trump are buying it.

Doesn't matter. All we are talking about now is Trump's brain damage, mental deficiencies, and the gorilla channel

Everyone already forgot about tax reform. Not looking good. It will reflect in the polls very soon. Expect generic ballot to be D+20
Trump is just weird I really doubt that he has brain damage or mental deficiencies.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 07, 2018, 04:43:38 pm
With all due respect you are the biggest hack on this site limbo

I still believe the democrats are going to take back the house. I correctly pointed out that there were several "bad" toplines for Democrats in this poll, and also noted that it was only one poll from a not-stellar pollster, and that Casey had a good approval topline.

With all due respect, it's far more hackish and pathetic to launch a ad hominen attack on someone because they analyze a poll in a way not favorable to Democrats.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Mondale on January 07, 2018, 04:45:15 pm

The only reviewer that matters is the American public and they are buying the book in droves using money from the tax cuts everyone already forgot about (tax reform bump = dead)
Liberals who hate trump are buying it.

Doesn't matter. All we are talking about now is Trump's brain damage, mental deficiencies, and the gorilla channel

Everyone already forgot about tax reform. Not looking good. It will reflect in the polls very soon. Expect generic ballot to be D+20
Trump is just weird I really doubt that he has brain damage or mental deficiencies.

Hey idk either...it's just what many people are saying. The book is very bad for Mr Trump. It has rained all over tax reform


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 07, 2018, 04:46:49 pm
This is the heart of Trump country, not a district with tons of Republicans who reluctantly held their noses.  It's a bit like Republicans trying to take back the CA districts that flipped in 2006/08 in 2010.  By and large, it just didn't happen.

It shouldn't be representative of the national environment or the battle for House control.  Could be an early warning to those who think Manchin or Heitkamp are fine, though.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 07, 2018, 04:51:18 pm
This is the heart of Trump country, not a district with tons of Republicans who reluctantly held their noses.  It's a bit like Republicans trying to take back the CA districts that flipped in 2006/08 in 2010.  By and large, it just didn't happen.

It shouldn't be representative of the national environment or the battle for House control.  Could be an early warning to those who think Manchin or Heitkamp are fine, though.

This is a good point. Appalachian Demosaurs could still love the Tax Reform (and Trump), but we can't know if that applies to the rural and midwestern democrats, like those in IA-01 and the upstate NY districts. All though Appalachia and the rural midwest both shifted R heavily in 2016, that doesn't necessarily mean that they will react the same way to Trump.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: nonpartisanhunk on January 07, 2018, 05:11:51 pm
People are overreacting here, it's one poll from an not so wonderful firm 3 months before the special election. I want to see which other firms come up with, but we should really just rely on fundamentals.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 07, 2018, 05:21:53 pm
The topline seems OK but I'm skeptical about Trump's approval numbers.
The guy couldn't even break 50 at Alabama and he is at +15 here?


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: The Mikado on January 07, 2018, 05:32:48 pm
This is the sort of district I'd expect the Trumpish GOP to overperform in. I fully expect Saccone to comfortably win by 8-10 points.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 07, 2018, 05:34:36 pm
The topline seems OK but I'm skeptical about Trump's approval numbers.
The guy couldn't even break 50 at Alabama and he is at +15 here?

He has risen significantly in the 538 and rcp aggregator since the Alabama election.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: UncleSam on January 07, 2018, 05:39:43 pm
Are people seriously arguin that some book written with the express intent of painting Trump in a negative light will shape how the public views tax reform lmao

That's the dumbest assertion I've heard since rain will destroy Northam in NoVA.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: bandg on January 07, 2018, 05:45:22 pm
The topline seems OK but I'm skeptical about Trump's approval numbers.
The guy couldn't even break 50 at Alabama and he is at +15 here?

Trump obviously has a higher approval in Alabama than the polls or exit poll showed. There was a huge turnout gap due to Moore's toxicity, and thus GOP voters were not making it through LV screens. This deflated Trump's approval among special election voters, but it is certainly higher among the larger population of RVs.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 07, 2018, 05:46:17 pm
Oh yeah, an 18-point swing is horrible. We're all doomed.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Virginia on January 07, 2018, 05:54:45 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 07, 2018, 05:59:21 pm
This thread is dumb. Republicans leading by 12 in a district Trump won by 20 is hardly great news for them. Of course, it pours cold water over the Atlas fantasy of Dems winning 100+ House seats, but who cares.

Also, if those are Wolf's and Casey's real approvals in this district, they're both going to win re-election easily.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 07, 2018, 06:05:41 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 07, 2018, 06:07:44 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Trump is unpopular in PA, you know. This is a poll of a heavily Republican district that he won by 20 points.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Virginia on January 07, 2018, 06:09:45 pm
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: UncleSam on January 07, 2018, 06:10:00 pm
The biggest thing in this poll is the tax reform approval honestly. This fits with a recent national Gallup poll showing it was at 40% approval (and around -5 overall), indicating that the bill is in fact getting more popular. We will see whether that continues or if it just ends up being popular with Rs and no one else.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 07, 2018, 06:10:53 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Trump is unpopular in PA, you know. This is a poll of a heavily Republican district that he won by 20 points.

Trump is almost certainly unpopular in Pennsylvania. Because of that, I doubt that Trump could go into Pennyslvania and defeat Casey, no matter how much he would attack him.

However, in a blue-collar-ish district that he won by 20 points, his approval rating is +15. That indicates with near 100% certainty that Trump is popular in West Virginia, most likely very popular. Greedo's point was that if Trump spent a lot of energy and time into attacking Joe Manchin, he could leverage that popularity to deliver the Republican the senate seat.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 07, 2018, 06:12:12 pm
The biggest thing in this poll is the tax reform approval honestly. This fits with a recent national Gallup poll showing it was at 40% approval (and around -5 overall), indicating that the bill is in fact getting more popular. We will see whether that continues or if it just ends up being popular with Rs and no one else.

I mean, it would've been hard for it to get LESS popular, so obviously it was going to improve somewhat if it actually passed and the right wing had their victory parties.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 07, 2018, 06:12:52 pm
The biggest thing in this poll is the tax reform approval honestly. This fits with a recent national Gallup poll showing it was at 40% approval (and around -5 overall), indicating that the bill is in fact getting more popular. We will see whether that continues or if it just ends up being popular with Rs and no one else.

I trolled about Tax Reform constantly, suggesting a "huge" Tax Reform Bump which didn't really happen.

But I was also ridiculed for suggesting that the bonuses from major companies and stripping of all the unpopular elements could make the tax bill more popular, and I have no doubt in my mind that the bill has gotten more popular since the height of its unpopularity.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 07, 2018, 06:13:54 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Trump is unpopular in PA, you know. This is a poll of a heavily Republican district that he won by 20 points.

Trump is almost certainly unpopular in Pennsylvania. Because of that, I doubt that Trump could go into Pennyslvania and defeat Casey, no matter how much he would attack him.

However, in a blue-collar-ish district that he won by 20 points, his approval rating is +15. That indicates with near 100% certainty that Trump is popular in West Virginia, most likely very popular. Greedo's point was that if Trump spent a lot of energy and time into attacking Joe Manchin, he could leverage that popularity to deliver the Republican the senate seat.

We already know Trump is popular in West Virginia though. And yes, I do think Manchin is likely to lose. Greedo lumped Brown and Casey in with Manchin in that post, which is obviously ridiculous.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 07, 2018, 06:14:25 pm
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.

I really disagree with this.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 07, 2018, 06:20:16 pm
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.
I really disagree with this.
Just look at how well it worked for Luther Strange. Are you high?


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Bagel23 on January 07, 2018, 06:38:53 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 07, 2018, 06:44:35 pm
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.
I really disagree with this.
Just look at how well it worked for Luther Strange. Are you high?

I wish.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Bagel23 on January 07, 2018, 06:45:59 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

Erm, this seat was won by Romney by around 17pts and Murphy by 28pts in 2012. And all those guys you listed did just fine. Hell, Murphy even won it by over 28pts in 2008, IMHO, very little correlation. In this part of the country, a lot of elections are settled by name rec, personality, and populism. That's why you see things like Capito, McKinley, and Manchin (won both those districts heavily), all winning their districts by big margins despite being very different, and on opposite parties. Name brand matters, correlations, especially in Appalachia are hard to draw. It is a very flexible region. Saccone only at 12+ (which is arguable, it's only 1 poll) is actually a really sh!tty result for the GOP. And if we were to draw correlations (again, not a fan of that), it's definitely not something to be celebrating for the GOP.

Not to even mention the ginormous cash advantage Saccone has over Lamb right now. If Saccone 12+ holds up (again just one poll), that is quite a crappy result for the GOP.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Young Conservative on January 07, 2018, 08:16:08 pm
The Wolf Book will do nothing to districts like this or any other election. It is riddled with blatant falsehoods and it no longer has any credibility. I do not know a single person taking it seriously, or anyone who is shocked by its contents.

Now, on to this, it is extremely good for Republicans. It also bodes horribly for Heitkamp and McCaskill who relied to some degree on rural support for victories.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Mondale on January 07, 2018, 08:18:02 pm
The Wolf Book will do nothing to districts like this or any other election. It is riddled with blatant falsehoods and it no longer has any credibility. I do not know a single person taking it seriously, or anyone who is shocked by its contents.

Now, on to this, it is extremely good for Republicans. It also bodes horribly for Heitkamp and McCaskill who relied to some degree on rural support for victories.

Sounds like Trump's disastrous, no good presidency


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 07, 2018, 08:24:10 pm
The Wolf Book will do nothing to districts like this or any other election. It is riddled with blatant falsehoods and it no longer has any credibility. I do not know a single person taking it seriously, or anyone who is shocked by its contents.

Now, on to this, it is extremely good for Republicans. It also bodes horribly for Heitkamp and McCaskill who relied to some degree on rural support for victories.

How is being up 12 in a district Trump won by 20 extremely good for Republicans? Seriously, how? Unless you were expecting a complete bloodbath in 2018.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: henster on January 07, 2018, 08:29:27 pm
Dems may get a swingy seat out of SWPA if the courts strike down the maps, in most cases PA-18 would get redder in a redrawn. But PA-12 could become a pickup opportunity under new lines.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 07, 2018, 08:32:15 pm
The Wolf Book will do nothing to districts like this or any other election. It is riddled with blatant falsehoods and it no longer has any credibility. I do not know a single person taking it seriously, or anyone who is shocked by its contents.

Now, on to this, it is extremely good for Republicans. It also bodes horribly for Heitkamp and McCaskill who relied to some degree on rural support for victories.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 07, 2018, 08:35:26 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since it’s WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didn’t vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on January 07, 2018, 08:38:10 pm
The idea that a congressional race is a precursor to how senate races involving incumbents is utterly ridiculous and serious wishful thinking on part of atlas resident reps


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Lean Branson on January 07, 2018, 08:41:52 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since it’s WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didn’t vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 07, 2018, 08:44:12 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since it’s WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didn’t vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.

He should be concerned with something even worse though: WV voters.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Former Kentuckian on January 07, 2018, 09:57:48 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since it’s WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didn’t vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.

He should be concerned with something even worse though: WV voters.

He has a better approval rating than Shelley Moore Capito: https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/ (https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/)


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Former Kentuckian on January 07, 2018, 10:02:17 pm
and lol at people acting like a poll of one congressional district is indicative of an entire state


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on January 07, 2018, 10:10:55 pm
and lol at people acting like a poll of one congressional district is indicative of an entire state


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Bagel23 on January 07, 2018, 10:14:19 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since it’s WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didn’t vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

Trump campaigning against Manchin could hurt, but it could do near nothing, as seen in AL. It's a wild card.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 07, 2018, 10:19:36 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since it’s WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didn’t vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

Trump campaigning against Manchin could hurt, but it could do near nothing, as seen in AL. It's a wild card.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: smoltchanov on January 08, 2018, 12:42:09 am
More or less "normal" numbers for Appalachia. It may be less admiring of Trump then year ago, but still of rather low opinion about Democratic party as it is.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Brittain33 on January 08, 2018, 10:06:26 am
I want to believe that Lamb is a great candidate and Saccone is a terrible candidate etc. but I suppose this is the kind of district where you would expect Trump support to be most durable.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 08, 2018, 11:20:24 am
and lol at people acting like a poll of one congressional district is indicative of an entire state


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on January 08, 2018, 11:56:17 am
I'm expecting Saccone to win by 10 but if tax reform is underperforming Trump approvals, I'm not too concerned about a tax reform bump.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Wiz in Wis on January 08, 2018, 12:03:42 pm
Ok... in all honesty, given the variance in the AL polling that we just saw, how can anyone even think this poll has any meaning? Alabama ranged from Jones +10 to Moore +9. Given that it's a CD and not a state, why would this poll be considered a sign of anything?


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Speaker OneJ on January 08, 2018, 01:55:19 pm
We still have long time to go and keep in mind this is still vintage Gravis people. Plus, the assumption that Manchin is supposedly in trouble due to this is silly.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Hoosier_Nick on January 08, 2018, 05:01:25 pm
Good poll. Not only does it show a massive shift given how much Trump won the district by, it shows that if turnout favors Democrats enough (which evidence shows there is a good chance of happening), this district is in play. At this point I'd be really surprised if Saccone wins by more than 10, in part since that hasn't even been done by a single other special federal election. Still pinning this race at Lean R, though much closer to Likely R than Tilt R. Democrats need to hope this district stays under the radar like SC-05 or KS-04 for a close result and hope that it's not a repeat of GA-06. 


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 08, 2018, 08:36:33 pm
I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.
But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.
Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since it’s WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didn’t vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.

He should be concerned with something even worse though: WV voters.

He has a better approval rating than Shelley Moore Capito: https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/ (https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/)

We'll see what that looks like after the ads and Trump attacks start.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Cactus Jack on January 08, 2018, 08:37:44 pm
IceSpear, before you start calling results months before an election again, may I just remind you of Alabama. :P


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 08, 2018, 08:41:05 pm
IceSpear, before you start calling results months before an election again, may I just remind you of Alabama. :P

I didn't call it, actually. I changed my rating from Safe R to Lean R. ;)


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Holmes on January 08, 2018, 08:43:13 pm
IceSpear, before you start calling results months before an election again, may I just remind you of Alabama. :P

I didn't call it, actually. I changed my rating from Safe R to Lean R. ;)

Hmm.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Bagel23 on January 08, 2018, 09:30:09 pm
We still have long time to go and keep in mind this is still vintage Gravis people. Plus, the assumption that Manchin is supposedly in trouble due to this is silly.

This. Manchin has also easily barnstormed reelection when the GOP held well over double the lead this poll shows now in this district, this sh!t is simply not connected, nice try though!


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on January 08, 2018, 10:48:12 pm
Murphy’s closest race was in 2006, a Democrat wave election.   He was also accused of illegally using District office employees to work in his campaign .  He won 58% to 42%.  Last year Trump won 58.1% to 38.5%.  So, is the bench mark for Saccone not 58%?    In that case right now Saccone is 12% short of 58% and Lamb is 8% short of 42%.  Saccone is also getting 14% of Democrats.

By the way In 2014 Corbett beat Wolf 54.9 to 45.1.  Wolf could be as big a drag as Trump.  Even in 2012 Obama lost 57.9 % to 41% and Casey lost 53.4% to 44.

I am not saying Lamb cannot climb the hill.  But it will not be easy. Even in a flood the GOP will not lose every seat

Also, if Saccone wins, that still does mean there will not be a wave.  I would suggest my Democrat friends here not place a lot of emotional energy in this race. 


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Bagel23 on January 08, 2018, 10:54:10 pm
Murphy’s closest race was in 2006, a Democrat wave election.   He was also accused of illegally using District office employees to work in his campaign .  He won 58% to 42%.  Last year Trump won 58.1% to 38.5%.  So, is the bench mark for Saccone not 58%?    In that case right now Saccone is 12% short of 58% and Lamb is 8% short of 42%.  Saccone is also getting 14% of Democrats.

By the way In 2014 Corbett beat Wolf 54.9 to 45.1.  Wolf could be as big a drag as Trump.  Even in 2012 Obama lost 57.9 % to 41% and Casey lost 53.4% to 44.

I am not saying Lamb cannot climb the hill.  But it will not be easy. Even in a flood the GOP will not lose every seat

Also, if Saccone wins, that still does mean there will not be a wave.  I would suggest my Democrat friends here not place a lot of emotional energy in this race. 


Very good post, actually I am surprised, good job. I'd say the Republican benchmark should be about 56%. Anything lower than that would be embarrassing.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Holmes on January 08, 2018, 11:37:25 pm
I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 08, 2018, 11:52:21 pm
I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 08, 2018, 11:53:10 pm
I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.

Literally nobody will care about this besides this forum and Politico columnists though.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on January 08, 2018, 11:55:03 pm
I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.

Literally nobody will care about this besides this forum and Politico columnists though.

Potential Big Donors might care though....


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Holmes on January 09, 2018, 12:14:17 am
I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.

Literally nobody will care about this besides this forum and Politico columnists though.

Potential Big Donors might care though....

Maybe but Republicans will always have their precious donors either way, so moot point.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on January 09, 2018, 12:35:00 am
I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.

Literally nobody will care about this besides this forum and Politico columnists though.

Potential Big Donors might care though....

Maybe but Republicans will always have their precious donors either way, so moot point.

They don't believe they'll always have them though, that's the thing. Part of why they were able to muscle through tax reform was they told legislators that big donors would abandon the party if tax reform didn't pass


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Brittain33 on January 12, 2018, 12:57:06 pm
Despite this poll result and the district's Trumpy profile, here's your Republican dog sweat article in Politico:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/11/trump-special-election-pennsylvania-pittsburgh-336502


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Holmes on January 12, 2018, 01:17:03 pm
Interesting, and a bit early too. I would've expected him to visit a bit closer to the election date. They must be sweating though.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 12, 2018, 01:18:22 pm
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 12, 2018, 01:19:55 pm
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 12, 2018, 01:20:13 pm
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 12, 2018, 01:24:11 pm
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.
Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 12, 2018, 01:25:49 pm
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.
Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

Please do show your sources.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: KingSweden on January 12, 2018, 01:28:14 pm
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.
Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

I think somebody from PA named “PittsburgSteel” knows his corner of the country better than you


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 12, 2018, 01:30:35 pm
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.
Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

Please do show your sources.
Look he won WEST VIRGINIA by the biggest margin in history. Eastern Kentucky he won every county first time that has happened in history. He only lost 3-7 county’s in all the Appalachia region.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: NatAl on January 12, 2018, 01:30:43 pm
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.
Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

I think somebody from PA named “PittsburgSteel” knows his corner of the country better than you
Except di shows clear tendencies of hatred to everything that is republican.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 12, 2018, 01:33:13 pm
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.
Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

Please do show your sources.
Look he won WEST VIRGINIA by the biggest margin in history. Eastern Kentucky he won every county first time that has happened in history. He only lost 3-7 county’s in all the Appalachia region.

Yeah, well Pittsburgh is smack in the corner of PA. South Western PA.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Keep cool-idge on January 12, 2018, 01:36:30 pm
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.
Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

Please do show your sources.
Look he won WEST VIRGINIA by the biggest margin in history. Eastern Kentucky he won every county first time that has happened in history. He only lost 3-7 county’s in all the Appalachia region.

Yeah, well Pittsburgh is smack in the corner of PA. South Western PA.
He still won the Appalachians by the biggest or second biggest margin in history.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: smoltchanov on January 12, 2018, 01:43:28 pm
^ Of course. But Pittsburgh itself is not in the district. And the southernmost part of Allegheny county (which is in 18th), is, probably, less Democratic then Pittsburgh. In addition - Trump won Washington county (most of which is in 18th) with 60%, Westmoreland county (large part of which is in 18th too) with 63.5%, and relatively small Greene county (also mostly in 18th) with 68.5%. I can easily believe that Trump's popularity decreased since November 2016, but hardly SO much.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 12, 2018, 05:49:56 pm
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.
Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

I think somebody from PA named “PittsburgSteel” knows his corner of the country better than you

lol. If you're familiar with the poster Bandit from Kentucky, you'd see what a foolish statement that was.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: smoltchanov on January 13, 2018, 01:23:45 am
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.
Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.
Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

I think somebody from PA named “PittsburgSteel” knows his corner of the country better than you

lol. If you're familiar with the poster Bandit from Kentucky, you'd see what a foolish statement that was.

Yeah. Being "local" is a plus, of course, but it doesn't neccessary mean being objective and knowledgeable...


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on January 13, 2018, 02:03:01 am
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.

The Gravis poll has Trump’s approval at 54% - 39% in the 18th among likely voters.

Trump carried the District 58.1% to 38.5%.

Of course Gravis likely voter sample may not include enough energized Democrat voters.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: smoltchanov on January 13, 2018, 02:27:46 am
I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.

The Gravis poll has Trump’s approval at 54% - 39% in the 18th among likely voters.

Trump carried the District 58.1% to 38.5%.

Of course Gravis likely voter sample may not include enough energized Democrat voters.

Yes. That's why see as most likely Republican win in high single digits (7-9%), instead of 15-20. But still - rather solid win.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Cory Booker on January 13, 2018, 07:14:42 pm
2 months before an election in a red district.  I hope the Democrats do come home in this race and hopefully it tightens a bit. 


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: henster on January 13, 2018, 08:13:55 pm
Big coal mine in Greene County is shutting down 370 people to be laid off, should be an issue Dems talk about.

http://www.post-gazette.com/business/career-workplace/2018/01/03/Mepco-Greene-County-coal-mine-layoffs-Morgantown-West-Virginia/stories/201801030235


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 13, 2018, 09:20:33 pm
Big coal mine in Greene County is shutting down 370 people to be laid off, should be an issue Dems talk about.

http://www.post-gazette.com/business/career-workplace/2018/01/03/Mepco-Greene-County-coal-mine-layoffs-Morgantown-West-Virginia/stories/201801030235

This is what I mean. Pennsylvania is souring on Trump, especially the western part of PA. The workers are realizing that Trump lied to them to get their votes. Who knows? This could be 370 workers plus their spouses and 18 year-old kids going to the polls for Conor Lamb.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Holmes on January 13, 2018, 09:23:30 pm
Big coal mine in Greene County is shutting down 370 people to be laid off, should be an issue Dems talk about.

http://www.post-gazette.com/business/career-workplace/2018/01/03/Mepco-Greene-County-coal-mine-layoffs-Morgantown-West-Virginia/stories/201801030235

191 workers are being let go a week and a half before the special, and they weren't even unionized. Lamb should pounce on this.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: henster on January 13, 2018, 10:52:20 pm
Big coal mine in Greene County is shutting down 370 people to be laid off, should be an issue Dems talk about.

http://www.post-gazette.com/business/career-workplace/2018/01/03/Mepco-Greene-County-coal-mine-layoffs-Morgantown-West-Virginia/stories/201801030235

This is what I mean. Pennsylvania is souring on Trump, especially the western part of PA. The workers are realizing that Trump lied to them to get their votes. Who knows? This could be 370 workers plus their spouses and 18 year-old kids going to the polls for Conor Lamb.

And Trump is probably coming next week to brag about how great things are..meanwhile close to 400 people will be out of work. Lamb or some group needs to be up on air, where is the small donor $$ for him?


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Former Kentuckian on January 13, 2018, 11:07:56 pm
Big coal mine in Greene County is shutting down 370 people to be laid off, should be an issue Dems talk about.

http://www.post-gazette.com/business/career-workplace/2018/01/03/Mepco-Greene-County-coal-mine-layoffs-Morgantown-West-Virginia/stories/201801030235

This is what I mean. Pennsylvania is souring on Trump, especially the western part of PA. The workers are realizing that Trump lied to them to get their votes. Who knows? This could be 370 workers plus their spouses and 18 year-old kids going to the polls for Conor Lamb.

And Trump is probably coming next week to brag about how great things are..meanwhile close to 400 people will be out of work. Lamb or some group needs to be up on air, where is the small donor $$ for him?

Lamb needs to air an ad featuring the closing of the mine juxtaposed with Trump's remarks about bringing back coal and how he said there'd be so many coal jobs that miners wouldn't know what to do.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: henster on January 13, 2018, 11:27:30 pm
Big coal mine in Greene County is shutting down 370 people to be laid off, should be an issue Dems talk about.

http://www.post-gazette.com/business/career-workplace/2018/01/03/Mepco-Greene-County-coal-mine-layoffs-Morgantown-West-Virginia/stories/201801030235

This is what I mean. Pennsylvania is souring on Trump, especially the western part of PA. The workers are realizing that Trump lied to them to get their votes. Who knows? This could be 370 workers plus their spouses and 18 year-old kids going to the polls for Conor Lamb.

And Trump is probably coming next week to brag about how great things are..meanwhile close to 400 people will be out of work. Lamb or some group needs to be up on air, where is the small donor $$ for him?

Lamb needs to air an ad featuring the closing of the mine juxtaposed with Trump's remarks about bringing back coal and how he said there'd be so many coal jobs that miners wouldn't know what to do.

Have to be careful about running too much against Trump in this district. More like 'I'll help these miners find work in green/tech jobs, retraining etc.' 'Revitalize SWPA'. Maybe these people will actually listen now Rs can't blame 'WAR ON COAL'.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Holmes on January 14, 2018, 12:24:40 am
The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Former Kentuckian on January 14, 2018, 12:29:43 am
The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

Good point.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: smoltchanov on January 14, 2018, 01:24:57 am
The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

That's exactly the problem: they want jobs, but not ANY jobs, if i understood correctly. They don't want to undergo retraining, and then - be employed in "green technologies" or IT area. They want COAL jobs, they are accustomed to, and they already have enough skills to do (right now). Who can give them THAT????


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Holmes on January 14, 2018, 02:02:23 am
The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

That's exactly the problem: they want jobs, but not ANY jobs, if i understood correctly. They don't want to undergo retraining, and then - be employed in "green technologies" or IT area. They want COAL jobs, they are accustomed to, and they already have enough skills to do (right now). Who can give them THAT????

No one. The world is changing. If they don't want to change with it, they will be left behind or be forced to move away.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: smoltchanov on January 14, 2018, 02:08:39 am
The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

That's exactly the problem: they want jobs, but not ANY jobs, if i understood correctly. They don't want to undergo retraining, and then - be employed in "green technologies" or IT area. They want COAL jobs, they are accustomed to, and they already have enough skills to do (right now). Who can give them THAT????

No one. The world is changing. If they don't want to change with it, they will be left behind or be forced to move away.

In long-term perspective - of course. But for now - they are still there, still voting, and still angry. Possibly - that's one of the reasons why Appalachia now votes the way it does.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 14, 2018, 06:21:15 pm
Atlas posters tend to fundamentally misunderstand the voters and assume they are motivated by facts and logic. They're motivated by emotion, tribalism, and their own version of reality. Trump could've personally ordered the closing of that mine on video tape and they'd still say it was fake news, blame Obama/Hillary, and continue to strongly support their god emperor.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Gass3268 on January 17, 2018, 11:44:24 am
Something is happening here:

Quote
Jonathan Martin

Verified account
@jmartNYT

News: House GOP scramble to save PA-18 underway.  Saccone in DC today for fundraiser w Stivers & 2017 special winners, back in Feb for funder w *entire* House GOP leadership team, Ryan on down.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: MT Treasurer on January 17, 2018, 12:02:26 pm
Yeah, I'm not buying that this poll is accurate given how badly Republicans have fared in all the other special elections so far (WI in particular). Tossup/Tilt D.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Holmes on January 17, 2018, 12:42:16 pm
Yeah, something is up. Republicans are making their panic a bit too obvious. Worth keeping an eye on.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 17, 2018, 12:45:47 pm
Something is happening here:

Quote
Jonathan Martin

Verified account
@jmartNYT

News: House GOP scramble to save PA-18 underway.  Saccone in DC today for fundraiser w Stivers & 2017 special winners, back in Feb for funder w *entire* House GOP leadership team, Ryan on down.

The Wisconsin special election race probably spooked them. North western Wisconsin is similar to south western Pennsylvania. Saccone has also been really struggling with fundraising and volunteers.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Brittain33 on January 17, 2018, 01:03:11 pm
I think this is a $-driven freakout, not a polling driven freakout. The fundamentals favor Saccone, but if he's broke, he could fail.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 17, 2018, 01:08:37 pm
I wonder if they really just want a big win for Saccone to push back against the blue-wave narrative and underperformance in special elections. Because polling (both national and district) shows that Saccone should win easily.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 17, 2018, 01:10:43 pm
I think this is a $-driven freakout, not a polling driven freakout. The fundamentals favor Saccone, but if he's broke, he could fail.

I agree. Lamb is also the far superior candidate. He's young, good looking, a vet, charismatic, and very intelligent. I can see the many potential reasons why the GOP is freaking out.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 17, 2018, 01:14:46 pm
I think this is a $-driven freakout, not a polling driven freakout. The fundamentals favor Saccone, but if he's broke, he could fail.

I agree. Lamb is also the far superior candidate. He's young, good looking, a vet, charismatic, and very intelligent. I can see the many potential reasons why the GOP is freaking out.

Will there be a debate?


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: henster on January 17, 2018, 03:18:10 pm
Maybe instead of Steyer wasting $$ buying books and pointless impeachment ads he could put his money to good use. And where is the DCCC/DNC?


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 17, 2018, 04:07:22 pm
Something is happening here:

Quote
Jonathan Martin

Verified account
@jmartNYT

News: House GOP scramble to save PA-18 underway.  Saccone in DC today for fundraiser w Stivers & 2017 special winners, back in Feb for funder w *entire* House GOP leadership team, Ryan on down.

The Wisconsin special election race probably spooked them. North western Wisconsin is similar to south western Pennsylvania. Saccone has also been really struggling with fundraising and volunteers.

How so? NW WI swung heavily toward Obama in 2008, SW PA was one of the few places in the country to swing against him.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Brittain33 on January 17, 2018, 07:52:52 pm
New York Times says internal polls on both sides report "single-digit race," confirms Republican dog sweat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/17/us/politics/trump-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html?_r=0

I still believe Republicans will successfully nationalize this and eke out a win even though Saccone sucks and Lamb is Jesus with dimples.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: henster on January 17, 2018, 11:29:50 pm
I'm sure we will have another great debate on whether Pelosi should go in the coming weeks. It looks like Pelosi will the main thing they'll tie Lamb to.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Bagel23 on January 17, 2018, 11:52:00 pm
Maybe instead of Steyer wasting $$ buying books and pointless impeachment ads he could put his money to good use. And where is the DCCC/DNC?

Please don't Ossoff this sh!t.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: smoltchanov on January 18, 2018, 12:02:28 am
New York Times says internal polls on both sides report "single-digit race," confirms Republican dog sweat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/17/us/politics/trump-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html?_r=0

I still believe Republicans will successfully nationalize this and eke out a win even though Saccone sucks and Lamb is Jesus with dimples.

I can believe in single-digit race here, but, most likely, with Republican advantage (say, +7-8)...


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 18, 2018, 03:08:53 am
In the article above it's mentioned that Lamb raised 550000$ during the 4Q while Saccone raised 200000$.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Justice Blair on January 18, 2018, 05:46:46 am
Yeah after Alabama I'm very confident the various democractic groups understand how to put money into a race subtly


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Brittain33 on January 18, 2018, 07:47:23 am
I'm sure we will have another great debate on whether Pelosi should go in the coming weeks. It looks like Pelosi will the main thing they'll tie Lamb to.

Lamb has said repeatedly he's not voting for Pelosi for Speaker.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Brittain33 on January 18, 2018, 07:50:35 am
Stickied


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Holmes on January 18, 2018, 09:36:48 am
Lamb released his first TV ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/953991405353013248


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Brittain33 on January 18, 2018, 09:39:17 am
It's interesting. He's going on the offensive against Pelosi in that ad. If Democrats win a narrow majority, then I suppose Pelosi will *have* to go, no? Too many Democrats will have made this pledge.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: DINO Tom on January 18, 2018, 09:44:59 am
It's interesting. He's going on the offensive against Pelosi in that ad. If Democrats win a narrow majority, then I suppose Pelosi will *have* to go, no? Too many Democrats will have made this pledge.

Or they’ll just break it :P


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on January 18, 2018, 09:50:56 am
It's interesting. He's going on the offensive against Pelosi in that ad. If Democrats win a narrow majority, then I suppose Pelosi will *have* to go, no? Too many Democrats will have made this pledge.

Only Lamb, Ojeda, and Paul Davis have made the pledge to my knowledge. Only one who might be part of a narrow majority is Davis. Lamb and Ojeda would only win in Nov. '18 on a night where Dems are winning 250+ seats.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Brittain33 on January 18, 2018, 09:51:30 am
If Lamb somehow manages to win this, does anyone know if his district would be likely to become any more Democratic-leaning under court-imposed districts? He'd need all the help he can get to hold on again in 2018 and 2020.

I'm guessing he loses eastern Westmoreland County and gains parts of the southern Monongahela Valley in eastern Greene and Washington County and western Fayette County, and this would help him marginally. I don't think moving further into Allegheny is in the cards and that would make a real difference. A court-ordered map would look more like an enlarged version of the district Frank Mascara represented 20+ years ago.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2018, 03:26:07 pm
I have just googled "Conor Lamb" (I didn't even know that PA-18 has a special election soon) and he looks like a Democratic Mike Naso.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Holmes on January 18, 2018, 05:32:10 pm
I have just googled "Conor Lamb" (I didn't even know that PA-18 has a special election soon) and he looks like a Democratic Mike Naso.

Not at all.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 18, 2018, 06:20:02 pm
I have just googled "Conor Lamb" (I didn't even know that PA-18 has a special election soon) and he looks like a Democratic Mike Naso.

Ban-worthy post.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Bagel23 on January 18, 2018, 06:53:26 pm
Lamb released his first TV ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/953991405353013248

Freedom ad!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on January 18, 2018, 08:31:10 pm
congrats senatour/ gov elect saccone! tho


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Devout Centrist on January 19, 2018, 11:42:57 am
It's interesting. He's going on the offensive against Pelosi in that ad. If Democrats win a narrow majority, then I suppose Pelosi will *have* to go, no? Too many Democrats will have made this pledge.
Seems like fairly boilerplate talking points for a historically Republican district.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Arch on January 19, 2018, 12:24:26 pm
Lamb released his first TV ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/953991405353013248

Freedom ad!

He's easy on the eyes. :P


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on January 19, 2018, 12:34:49 pm
Conor Lamb is the most beautiful Catholic in the history of Pennsylvania politics. I have not been this excited about a candidate in years!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Holmes on January 19, 2018, 12:37:51 pm
Conor Lamb is the most beautiful Catholic in the history of Pennsylvania politics. I have not been this excited about a candidate in years!

Beautiful Flawless Lambchop


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Cactus Jack on January 19, 2018, 02:15:18 pm
Bold prediction: if Lamb actually wins and manages to hold on until 2022 (a singularly long shot), he'll be a shoo-in to move up and face Toomey.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on January 19, 2018, 03:24:17 pm
Bold prediction: if Lamb actually wins and manages to hold on until 2022 (a singularly long shot), he'll be a shoo-in to move up and face Toomey.

I disagree. There are better candidates to face Toomey.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on January 20, 2018, 12:33:21 am
This will the huge wave.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on January 20, 2018, 12:46:56 am
Conor Lamb is the most beautiful Catholic in the history of Pennsylvania politics. I have not been this excited about a candidate in years!

Flawless beautiful Lamb time?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 20, 2018, 01:15:02 am
Ugh, if the PA SC strikes down Gerrymandering I'll probably be in PA-18. I REALLY want Conor to represent me but it won't happen :(


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Holmes on January 21, 2018, 09:26:00 pm
This race must be so frustrating for Republicans. The Democratic candidate is young, good looking, a veteran and goes around speaking to voters wearing his inoffensive Steelers jacket and talking about how both parties and all leadership is bad. Whereas Republicans have..... some old guy who's a total leadership kiss ass and has no charisma or fundraising skills whatsoever.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Lean Branson on January 21, 2018, 10:24:02 pm
This race must be so frustrating for Republicans. The Democratic candidate is young, good looking, a veteran and goes around speaking to voters wearing his inoffensive Steelers jacket and talking about how both parties and all leadership is bad. Whereas Republicans have..... some old guy who's a total leadership kiss ass and has no charisma or fundraising skills whatsoever.

Pretty sure that Harry Reid has a machine in his basement that can pump out young, charismatic, good-looking candidates on demand for tough races (Kander, O'Rourke, Perriello, Lamb)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: J. J. on January 21, 2018, 11:31:49 pm
Probably a Republican win in a place where you would expect a Republican win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on January 21, 2018, 11:43:00 pm
This race must be so frustrating for Republicans. The Democratic candidate is young, good looking, a veteran and goes around speaking to voters wearing his inoffensive Steelers jacket and talking about how both parties and all leadership is bad. Whereas Republicans have..... some old guy who's a total leadership kiss ass and has no charisma or fundraising skills whatsoever.

Eh, it doesn't really matter. Saccone should have a fairly easy time winning anyways.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Holmes on January 22, 2018, 01:04:38 am
This race must be so frustrating for Republicans. The Democratic candidate is young, good looking, a veteran and goes around speaking to voters wearing his inoffensive Steelers jacket and talking about how both parties and all leadership is bad. Whereas Republicans have..... some old guy who's a total leadership kiss ass and has no charisma or fundraising skills whatsoever.

Eh, it doesn't really matter. Saccone should have a fairly easy time winning anyways.

Sure, the district is definitely more Republican-leaning than anything, but what I'm saying is that they probably dislike having to spend so much and get so involved defending a seat they really shouldn't be needing to defend.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 22, 2018, 02:15:05 am
Probably a Republican win in a place where you would expect a Republican win.

Why don't you change your nick to Chinese Cookie?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Gass3268 on January 22, 2018, 03:31:00 pm
Saccone only up 3

Quote
Steve Singiser‏ 
@stevesingiser

Steve Singiser Retweeted Steve Singiser
DFM Research (@DFMresearch) finds Rick Saccone (R) leading Conor Lamb (D) by just three points in the special elex in PA-18.

Saccone 41, Lamb 38.

It's a real race, kids...

Source (http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/PA-18_Survey__Report.pdf)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: henster on January 22, 2018, 03:32:57 pm
Saccone only up 3

Quote
Steve Singiser‏ 
@stevesingiser

Steve Singiser Retweeted Steve Singiser
DFM Research (@DFMresearch) finds Rick Saccone (R) leading Conor Lamb (D) by just three points in the special elex in PA-18.

Saccone 41, Lamb 38.

It's a real race, kids...

Source (http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/PA-18_Survey__Report.pdf)

No excuse for the DCCC not to get involved then.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Horus on January 22, 2018, 03:38:24 pm
Saccone only up 3

Quote
Steve Singiser‏ 
@stevesingiser

Steve Singiser Retweeted Steve Singiser
DFM Research (@DFMresearch) finds Rick Saccone (R) leading Conor Lamb (D) by just three points in the special elex in PA-18.

Saccone 41, Lamb 38.

It's a real race, kids...

Source (http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/PA-18_Survey__Report.pdf)

No excuse for the DCCC not to get involved then.

Quietly, though. Overnationalization is what killed Ossoff, and if that happens here, in an anti establishment, populist district, the blowback could be worse.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 22, 2018, 03:40:38 pm
Saccone only up 3

Quote
Steve Singiser‏ 
@stevesingiser

Steve Singiser Retweeted Steve Singiser
DFM Research (@DFMresearch) finds Rick Saccone (R) leading Conor Lamb (D) by just three points in the special elex in PA-18.

Saccone 41, Lamb 38.

It's a real race, kids...

Source (http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/PA-18_Survey__Report.pdf)

Meh, way too many undecideds. Obviously Lamb is going to get more than 38%. 48-45 would've been a lot more interesting.

Also, I highly doubt Trump is only at 49-47 approval in this district when he's at 40% nationally. And there's no way in hell that Wolf is more popular in the district than Toomey and on the same level as Trump. I'm calling junk poll.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Gass3268 on January 22, 2018, 03:43:34 pm
Saccone only up 3

Quote
Steve Singiser‏ 
@stevesingiser

Steve Singiser Retweeted Steve Singiser
DFM Research (@DFMresearch) finds Rick Saccone (R) leading Conor Lamb (D) by just three points in the special elex in PA-18.

Saccone 41, Lamb 38.

It's a real race, kids...

Source (http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/PA-18_Survey__Report.pdf)

No excuse for the DCCC not to get involved then.

Quietly, though. Overnationalization is what killed Ossoff, and if that happens here, in an anti establishment, populist district, the blowback could be worse.

They did it right in Alabama.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on January 22, 2018, 03:49:49 pm
I would rather win in a District where the Democrat actually counts as a vote to get Democrats in control of the speaker-ship after the midterms than a District where the Democrat is fine with forcing a power sharing agreement if the Democratic majority is narrow.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Bagel23 on January 22, 2018, 03:50:12 pm
Oh heck yes!!! Saccone lead down!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Bagel23 on January 22, 2018, 03:50:48 pm
I think Lamb's ad helped.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 22, 2018, 03:52:23 pm
Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 22, 2018, 03:56:22 pm
Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Brittain33 on January 22, 2018, 03:58:47 pm
I would rather win in a District where the Democrat actually counts as a vote to get Democrats in control of the speaker-ship after the midterms than a District where the Democrat is fine with forcing a power sharing agreement if the Democratic majority is narrow.

Wouldn't it more likely that Pelosi steps down as Dem leader? If it's close, Tim Ryan and others will smell blood and go in for the kill.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 22, 2018, 04:04:07 pm
Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: kyc0705 on January 22, 2018, 04:12:32 pm
Lamb released his first TV ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/953991405353013248

I'd like his lamb chop Pretty good ad


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Holmes on January 22, 2018, 04:23:14 pm
Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: KingSweden on January 22, 2018, 04:28:58 pm
Well, well, well... we might have a real race here boys and girls.

Still think Lamb loses but it’ll be closer than the PVI suggests it has any reason to be


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Holmes on January 22, 2018, 04:58:21 pm
I wonder if a non-partisan map could actually make this district less competitive. Worth keeping an eye on because the special will be under current lines, so if Lamb does win...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 22, 2018, 05:16:29 pm
Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?

This guy looks like he just finished kindergarten.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Mondale on January 22, 2018, 05:18:10 pm
Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?

This guy looks like he just finished kindergarten.

Sounds like Roy Moore's type


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 22, 2018, 07:30:09 pm
REALLY want Conor to win! My town is in PA12 and the redistricting will probably put us in PA18.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - March 13
Post by: Speaker OneJ on January 22, 2018, 08:32:38 pm
Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?

This guy looks like he just finished kindergarten.

Sounds like Roy Moore's type
Didn't see that one coming.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on January 22, 2018, 10:10:42 pm
Lamb's got a new ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/955630664426119169

Has the Saccone campaign released anything yet?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Arch on January 22, 2018, 10:14:00 pm
Lamb's got a new ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/955630664426119169

Has the Saccone campaign released anything yet?

This feels like another Doug Jones type candidate in the making (in terms of message and campaign effectiveness). Approve.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Lean Branson on January 22, 2018, 11:35:51 pm
Lamb's got a new ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/955630664426119169

Has the Saccone campaign released anything yet?

This feels like another Doug Jones type candidate in the making (in terms of message and campaign effectiveness). Approve.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on January 23, 2018, 01:54:06 pm
Another new ad by Lamb:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5hAlQ2cPQ0


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on January 23, 2018, 05:40:49 pm
Another new ad by Lamb:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5hAlQ2cPQ0
wow. great ad


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Ses on January 24, 2018, 03:42:07 pm
Wow, how did I miss this poll? +3?!?!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 24, 2018, 06:38:14 pm
Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Arch on January 24, 2018, 07:04:05 pm
Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 24, 2018, 07:56:12 pm
Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Always take anecdotes like this with a grain of salt, hell Saccone could have a huge following in the southern rural areas, but you only are seeing the Lamb suburbs.

On the other hand, Saconnes campaign appears to be a 'this seat is R+11 and Trump won by 20, I can't lose' kind of deal.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on January 24, 2018, 09:25:04 pm
Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.

Please don't jinx it or get overconfident, you are a better poster than that.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Arch on January 24, 2018, 09:46:19 pm
Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.

Please don't jinx it or get overconfident, you are a better poster than that.

lol, what does overconfidence have to do with the quality of my posts? Anyways, I'm fully aware there's always the chance to lose. I don't expect anything, even out of polls, until the results come in. Unlike many, I learned from 2016.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Young Conservative on January 24, 2018, 10:21:52 pm
Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.
Congressman Ossof agrees.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Arch on January 24, 2018, 10:38:19 pm
Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.
Congressman Ossof agrees.

Actually, I never thought Ossoff had a lock on the win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: morgieb on January 24, 2018, 10:43:34 pm
Am feeling cautiously optimistic about this race. Only issue is balancing having enough money to keep Lamb competitive without nationalising it too much.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: henster on January 24, 2018, 10:43:40 pm
If Conor Lamb was the candidate in GA-06 he would've won handily, way better in quality. Thinking back I actually think Ossoff was a pretty bad candidate.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: smoltchanov on January 25, 2018, 02:59:02 am
If Conor Lamb was the candidate in GA-06 he would've won handily, way better in quality. Thinking back I actually think Ossoff was a pretty bad candidate.

I expressed doubts about his candidacy from the very beginning. But most of Democrats and supporers (even on Atlas) loved him by reasons that remain unclear to me, and almost silenced any critics. Result? Well-known.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 25, 2018, 02:41:33 pm
Saw a car with a few Conor Lamb bumper stickers on it in Pittsburgh this morning. Still no sign of Saccone.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: henster on January 25, 2018, 07:22:04 pm
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on January 25, 2018, 07:25:12 pm
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k
OMFG and we thought the Ossoff attack ad was bad. This was cancerous


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Littlefinger on January 25, 2018, 07:25:45 pm
That’s a terrible ad between the off key singing and screeching instrument. And the fact that the Lamb has already refused to support Pelosi


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 25, 2018, 07:56:31 pm
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

Wow. That is absolutely fatuous.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Not_A_Man on January 25, 2018, 07:58:51 pm
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

Dear god that ad looks like it was a Middle School Art Project ffs.



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on January 25, 2018, 08:02:13 pm
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

Dear god that ad looks like it was a Middle Elementary School Art Project ffs.



FTFY


Title: Nancy Had a Little Lamb
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on January 25, 2018, 08:16:41 pm
That ad convinced me to vote for Rick Saccone


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Ses on January 25, 2018, 08:21:33 pm
The Lamb campaign should air that ad.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Xing on January 25, 2018, 08:22:23 pm
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

This is a pretty damning indictment of the NRCC, if you ask me.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Speaker OneJ on January 25, 2018, 08:24:44 pm
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

Lol. Look at the comments. Even they are not putting up with this and know how terrible it is.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on January 25, 2018, 08:28:58 pm
The critical question is whether this eclipses demon sheep in its awfulness or not.


Title: Re: Nancy Had a Little Lamb
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on January 25, 2018, 08:31:07 pm
That ad convinced me to vote for Rick Saccone

why are you joking about this?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on January 25, 2018, 08:38:45 pm
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k
OMFG and we thought the Ossoff attack ad was bad. This was cancerous

Damn, that 10 to 1 dislike to like ratio. Sad!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: L.D. Smith on January 25, 2018, 08:49:13 pm
If Conor Lamb was the candidate in GA-06 he would've won handily, way better in quality. Thinking back I actually think Ossoff was a pretty bad candidate.

Ah, but would he have won Montana.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on January 25, 2018, 11:14:32 pm
This is what happens when you have no actual policy or issue to attack. You literally make up lies, and make a degrading and completely embarrassing ad about an American hero and Marine captain. For shame, for shame.

As others have said, Lamb should air this ad.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Speaker YE on January 25, 2018, 11:19:37 pm
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

Oh my god. When did the GOP get so awful at ads? Like nursery rhymes? Are voters babies now?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on January 25, 2018, 11:22:02 pm
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

Oh my god. When did the GOP get so awful at ads? Like nursery rhymes? Are voters babies now?

That is a very generous overestimation of the American electorate my friend.

The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter. -Winston Churchill


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on January 25, 2018, 11:22:45 pm
Quote if you logged into youtube just to dislike.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 25, 2018, 11:32:36 pm
Quote if you logged into youtube just to dislike.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 25, 2018, 11:58:08 pm
Quote if you logged into youtube just to dislike.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Speaker YE on January 25, 2018, 11:59:35 pm

Nah, logged into YouTube all the time, (sane, normal).


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on January 26, 2018, 12:16:48 am
()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: henster on January 26, 2018, 12:25:29 am
The ads against Ossoff: he’s young immature, Pelosi puppet, SF values, liberal, doesn’t live in district, lied about national security clearance.

Quist: bad finances, socialist, Pelosi, liberal, gun control

Lamb: Pelosi...?



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: ERM64man on January 26, 2018, 12:48:24 am
Is Saccone an establishment Republican or a polarizing Bannonite loon? I don't know very much about that region of PA.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on January 26, 2018, 12:53:45 am
Is Saccone an establishment Republican or a polarizing Bannonite loon? I don't know very much about that region of PA.

More like Trumpist, but has a streak of Bannonite.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on January 26, 2018, 01:07:13 am
Is Saccone an establishment Republican or a polarizing Bannonite loon? I don't know very much about that region of PA.

The latter, with a side of being so lazy he legitimately fell asleep in the state legislature once.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: ERM64man on January 26, 2018, 01:12:57 am
Is Saccone an establishment Republican or a polarizing Bannonite loon? I don't know very much about that region of PA.

The latter, with a side of being so lazy he legitimately fell asleep in the state legislature once.
So he's a kook who would fail to make the runoff if he ran in my House district (beaten by David Clifford (R-Long Beach, CA) for the second runoff spot)?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on January 26, 2018, 01:36:44 am
Is Saccone an establishment Republican or a polarizing Bannonite loon? I don't know very much about that region of PA.

The latter, with a side of being so lazy he legitimately fell asleep in the state legislature once.
So he's a kook who would fail to make the runoff if he ran in my House district (beaten by David Clifford (R-Long Beach, CA) for the second runoff spot)?

Definately, unless Ryan and co. buys him a spot.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: ERM64man on January 26, 2018, 01:46:15 am
Is Saccone an establishment Republican or a polarizing Bannonite loon? I don't know very much about that region of PA.

The latter, with a side of being so lazy he legitimately fell asleep in the state legislature once.
So he's a kook who would fail to make the runoff if he ran in my House district (beaten by David Clifford (R-Long Beach, CA) for the second runoff spot)?

Definately, unless Ryan and co. buys him a spot.
Not even Paul Ryan and co. could buy him the second runoff spot. That district is D+13, where Democrats would pick the GOP candidate. Enough Democrats would cross over and handily put Clifford ahead of Saccone.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on January 26, 2018, 03:54:52 am
Is Saccone an establishment Republican or a polarizing Bannonite loon? I don't know very much about that region of PA.

The latter, with a side of being so lazy he legitimately fell asleep in the state legislature once.

So he's a kook who would fail to make the runoff if he ran in my House district (beaten by David Clifford (R-Long Beach, CA) for the second runoff spot)?

That's about the sum of it. He's a sleepwalking Trump purist.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: DINO Tom on January 26, 2018, 07:42:42 am
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

This is truly the Troll 2 of attack ads.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: ERM64man on January 26, 2018, 01:59:14 pm
Who nominated this Saccone guy?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on January 26, 2018, 02:04:04 pm

A political party in decline


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: ERM64man on January 26, 2018, 02:05:24 pm
Was Saccone nominated in an open or closed primary?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Cactus Jack on January 26, 2018, 03:19:24 pm
Was Saccone nominated in an open or closed primary?

He was nominated by party officials, which ought to tell you something about the PAGOP.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: L.D. Smith on January 26, 2018, 04:22:03 pm
Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

This is truly the Troll 2 of attack ads.

And you can't piss on Troll 2 like that. I won't allow it!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: fluffypanther19 on January 26, 2018, 04:29:26 pm
Quote if you logged into youtube just to dislike.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: ERM64man on January 26, 2018, 04:49:25 pm
Was Saccone nominated in an open or closed primary?

He was nominated by party officials, which ought to tell you something about the PAGOP.
Why wasn't there a primary?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on January 26, 2018, 05:22:52 pm
If we apply the yard sign metric to this race....Suckone is finished

Quote
Conor Lamb
Conor Lamb
@ConorLambPA

We got 10K yard signs on January 1st. Yesterday we ran out. So we ordered 10K more. Can't thank you all enough for your support. #PA18


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 26, 2018, 05:47:36 pm
Oh, I forgot to tell everyone that I'm hitting the field for Lamb tomorrow.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on January 26, 2018, 06:04:46 pm
Did Al Gore win PA-18 under current borders in 2000?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: It's Trotsky Time on January 26, 2018, 06:11:29 pm
Watch as Lamb wins by >10 points lol


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Ebsy on January 26, 2018, 06:18:04 pm
Worst political ad since demon sheep. If the GOP is going to spend 300k on ads like that Lamb has nothing to worry about.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: President Griffin on January 26, 2018, 07:32:14 pm
Did Al Gore win PA-18 under current borders in 2000?

Just some quick napkin math/approximations here:

Obama lost PA-18 by 11 in 2008. Judging by the swing map for 2008 and the population distribution of the district, I'd say Kerry lost by roughly the same amount. The 2004 swing map suggests that Kerry did anywhere from 1-5 points worse than Gore, so that leads me to believe that Bush won PA-18 in 2000 by around 5 points.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: KingSweden on January 26, 2018, 07:39:45 pm
Oh, I forgot to tell everyone that I'm hitting the field for Lamb tomorrow.

Let us know how it goes!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mr.Phips on January 26, 2018, 09:05:44 pm
Did Al Gore win PA-18 under current borders in 2000?

Just some quick napkin math/approximations here:

Obama lost PA-18 by 11 in 2008. Judging by the swing map for 2008 and the population distribution of the district, I'd say Kerry lost by roughly the same amount. The 2004 swing map suggests that Kerry did anywhere from 1-5 points worse than Gore, so that leads me to believe that Bush won PA-18 in 2000 by around 5 points.

These numbers are pretty close to the truth.  If you go back to the 1980s, Dukakis and even Mondale would have won this district.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on January 27, 2018, 04:51:03 pm
Predictit has Saccone at 64c and Lamb at 40c.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3766/Which-party-will-win-the-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Pennsylvania's-18th-district


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 27, 2018, 06:38:44 pm
Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Cory Booker on January 27, 2018, 07:21:31 pm
Democratic pickup


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on January 27, 2018, 07:37:03 pm
Predictit has Saccone at 64c and Lamb at 40c.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3766/Which-party-will-win-the-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Pennsylvania's-18th-district

Predictit is worthless for analysis, I beg everyone to stop with it in analysis.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on January 27, 2018, 11:30:32 pm
Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.


Trump will be bragging about how the Democratic party is now 0-6 in congressional races, even if Saccone wins by 1 point in a R+11 district.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on January 28, 2018, 01:19:25 am
Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.


Trump will be bragging about how the Democratic party is now 0-6 in congressional races, even if Saccone wins by 1 point in a R+11 district.

Interesting how he doesn't include CA-34.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on January 28, 2018, 08:48:51 am
Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.


Trump will be bragging about how the Democratic party is now 0-6 in congressional races, even if Saccone wins by 1 point in a R+11 district.

Interesting how he doesn't include CA-34.

Probably because top 2 all Democratic Party races do not count to him?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: ERM64man on January 28, 2018, 01:27:34 pm
Democrats won AL-SEN.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 28, 2018, 02:03:49 pm

Well, Saccone has the advantage of not being a kiddie diddler.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: ERM64man on January 28, 2018, 03:32:39 pm

Well, Saccone has the advantage of not being a kiddie diddler.
Don't speak too soon.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 29, 2018, 11:41:19 am
I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on January 29, 2018, 11:48:09 am
I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...

GA-06 was not even a year ago.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on January 29, 2018, 02:45:19 pm
I think Lamb wins by 3-5 or something like that. These special elections have been ugly for the GOP so far, and the NRCC doesn’t seem to have its act together.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Andy on January 29, 2018, 02:47:21 pm
I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...

GA-06 was not even a year ago.

Even Atlas has a goldfish attention span. Now imagine the general public, half of which doesn't even vote. lol

People have already stopped caring about the government shutdown, which Atlas assured me voters would care deeply about and base their voting decisions on in 2018 and even 2020.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: libertpaulian on January 29, 2018, 09:29:05 pm
I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...

GA-06 was not even a year ago.

Even Atlas has a goldfish attention span. Now imagine the general public, half of which doesn't even vote. lol

People have already stopped caring about the government shutdown, which Atlas assured me voters would care deeply about and base their voting decisions on in 2018 and even 2020.
If people cared deeply about government shutdowns, Democrats would have retaken Congress in 1996 and would have kept the Senate/retaken the House in 2014.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: libertpaulian on January 29, 2018, 09:29:56 pm
BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on January 29, 2018, 10:09:08 pm
BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favor to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


Possibly. But Toomey is probably Safe if democrats win in 2020 (unless there's a realignment of sorts), and probably screwed if Trump wins in 2020.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on January 29, 2018, 10:18:28 pm
BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favor to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


No way Toomey would win against Lamb. Toomey will be an old man by then. His face already looks like a waterlogged costume stiched at gunpoint


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on January 29, 2018, 10:21:43 pm
BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favor to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


No way Toomey would win against Lamb. Toomey will be an old man by then. His face already looks like a waterlogged costume stiched at gunpoint

Toomey can easily win if a democrat is in office, unless the democrat is very popular or Toomey does something particularly stupid besides just be far right.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: henster on January 29, 2018, 10:23:28 pm
BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


No way he gets past Josh Shapiro.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Ses on January 29, 2018, 11:32:57 pm
Saccone's got to be the worst candidate I've ever seen.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on January 29, 2018, 11:39:16 pm
It takes a special level of incompetence to blow a seat like PA-18.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on January 29, 2018, 11:45:11 pm
It takes a special level of incompetence to blow a seat like PA-18.
Saccone: Challenge accepted!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mr.Phips on January 30, 2018, 08:20:29 am
BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


He's from the wrong part of the state.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: KingSweden on January 30, 2018, 09:48:24 am
BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


No way he gets past Josh Shapiro.

Or Lt. Governor John Fetterman. ;)

^^

Shapiro will most likely run to replace Wolf, IMO


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on January 30, 2018, 02:33:25 pm
Democrats will pick this seat up.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: HCP Stands With Loretta Sanchez. on January 30, 2018, 02:38:17 pm


I don't know if I am willing to say that right now, but I think this race is in tossup territory. I don't think either Democrats or Republicans should be complacent.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on January 30, 2018, 02:40:07 pm

From your lips to God's ears.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Tintrlvr on January 30, 2018, 02:42:48 pm
Saccone's got to be the worst candidate I've ever seen.

If anyone is looking for Martha Coakley analogies, look no further. We'll see what the result is, but Saccone is surely much more similar to Coakley's generally haplessness than Roy Moore was.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on January 30, 2018, 04:25:41 pm
Couldn't say it better myself ;) On a serious note turnout is everything here. If Democrats can mobilize their voters like they did in Alabama they will win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on January 30, 2018, 05:33:42 pm
BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


He's from the wrong part of the state.

What? If anything he is from the RIGHT part of the state to take down Toomey.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: J. J. on January 31, 2018, 06:54:53 pm
Was Saccone nominated in an open or closed primary?

He was nominated by party officials, which ought to tell you something about the PAGOP.

It is a convention of delegates elected or appointed by the GOP  county committees of the counties in the district.  I think it is one delegate per 1000 votes cast in the last presidential election. 


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Babeuf on January 31, 2018, 07:33:36 pm
BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


He's from the wrong part of the state.

What? If anything he is from the RIGHT part of the state to take down Toomey.
Not sure, but I think Mr. Phips is probably referring to a Dem primary?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 01, 2018, 05:15:30 pm
Just heard a Saccone ad on the radio. My god, it was awful. They are really trying to peddle this pathetic "Nancy and her lamb" smear. It then went onto some hardcore heavy-metal background music and bragged about how Saccone tortured terrorists and that's why he should be a congressman. He deserves to lose this race in a landslide.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Arch on February 01, 2018, 06:07:01 pm
Just heard a Saccone ad on the radio. My god, it was awful. They are really trying to peddle this pathetic "Nancy and her lamb" smear. It then went onto some hardcore heavy-metal background music and bragged about how Saccone tortured terrorists and that's why he should be a congressman. He deserves to lose this race in a landslide.

L0L


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Ronnie on February 01, 2018, 06:09:21 pm
BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?


He's from the wrong part of the state.

What? If anything he is from the RIGHT part of the state to take down Toomey.

I'm guessing he means that SW Pennsylvania lacks the kind of Democratic power base he needs to have in a Democratic primary.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on February 01, 2018, 06:17:42 pm
It's Alabama all over again

Quote
Ben Jacobs‏Verified account
@Bencjacobs
Follow Follow @Bencjacobs

NRCC Chair Stivers says "Pennsylvania 18 is  a real race."



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on February 01, 2018, 07:47:19 pm
It's Alabama all over again

Quote
Ben Jacobs‏Verified account
@Bencjacobs
Follow Follow @Bencjacobs

NRCC Chair Stivers says "Pennsylvania 18 is  a real race."


How is Trump going to spin a loss in PA-18? Remember what he said when Gillespie lost? 'Ed worked hard, but he didn't embrace me. If you embrace Trump, we will win a massive landslide in November'. What the hell is he going to say about a sycophant like Saccone loosing?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on February 01, 2018, 07:50:29 pm
It's Alabama all over again

Quote
Ben Jacobs‏Verified account
@Bencjacobs
Follow Follow @Bencjacobs

NRCC Chair Stivers says "Pennsylvania 18 is  a real race."


How is Trump going to spin a loss in PA-18? Remember what he said when Gillespie lost? 'Ed worked hard, but he didn't embrace me. If you embrace Trump, we will win a massive landslide in November'. What the hell is he going to say about a sycophant like Saccone loosing?

Rick Saccone?....never heard of the guy."


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: LimoLiberal on February 01, 2018, 09:47:06 pm
It's Alabama all over again

Quote
Ben Jacobs‏Verified account
@Bencjacobs
Follow Follow @Bencjacobs

NRCC Chair Stivers says "Pennsylvania 18 is  a real race."


How is Trump going to spin a loss in PA-18? Remember what he said when Gillespie lost? 'Ed worked hard, but he didn't embrace me. If you embrace Trump, we will win a massive landslide in November'. What the hell is he going to say about a sycophant like Saccone loosing?

Saccone is going to win easily.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Pericles on February 01, 2018, 10:01:40 pm
It's Alabama all over again

Quote
Ben Jacobs‏Verified account
@Bencjacobs
Follow Follow @Bencjacobs

NRCC Chair Stivers says "Pennsylvania 18 is  a real race."


How is Trump going to spin a loss in PA-18? Remember what he said when Gillespie lost? 'Ed worked hard, but he didn't embrace me. If you embrace Trump, we will win a massive landslide in November'. What the hell is he going to say about a sycophant like Saccone loosing?

Saccone is going to win easily.

Like your racist friend Ed Gillespie and your favorite pedophile Roy Moore. Lmao. Lamb's probably winning now.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Pericles on February 01, 2018, 10:34:05 pm
Obama was young and inexperienced. In today's politics inexperience is electable.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 02, 2018, 06:51:23 am
It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 02, 2018, 06:57:20 am
It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 02, 2018, 07:47:24 am
It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

Virginia doesn't really fit that description very well. Gillespie certainly got his voters to turn out. They just weren't nearly enough because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia nowadays, and Democrats just turned out in full force.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Gustaf on February 02, 2018, 07:56:58 am
It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

Virginia doesn't really fit that description very well. Gillespie certainly got his voters to turn out. They just weren't nearly enough because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia nowadays, and Democrats just turned out in full force.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.

I looked at a sample of 4 counties in the far west of the state and 2017 turnout there was about half of 2016 and on par with 2013. Given population growth and the focus on the race I'd say that indicates weak turnout.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 02, 2018, 08:56:54 am
It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

Virginia doesn't really fit that description very well. Gillespie certainly got his voters to turn out. They just weren't nearly enough because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia nowadays, and Democrats just turned out in full force.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.

Yeah. Right now, this district looks like Virginia minus NoVa. That's my concern. I hope I'm proven wrong since it was easy in Virginia for Dems not to contest those parts of Virginia.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Young Conservative on February 03, 2018, 05:04:39 pm
It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

Virginia doesn't really fit that description very well. Gillespie certainly got his voters to turn out. They just weren't nearly enough because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia nowadays, and Democrats just turned out in full force.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.

I looked at a sample of 4 counties in the far west of the state and 2017 turnout there was about half of 2016 and on par with 2013. Given population growth and the focus on the race I'd say that indicates weak turnout.

Many rural Virginia counties in the west have lost population since then.

Anyway, to LL’s point, Gillespie got the most votes ever recorded for a Republican gubernatorial nominee, even outpacing Bob McDonnell’s showing from when he won by 19 points. Sure, the overall state has grown much during the last eight years, but that would also suggest he did a decent job of getting his people out to vote.
No, it wouldn't. Regardless, there are no parallels between Gillespie and Saccone or Lamb and Northam or Virginia and PA.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on February 03, 2018, 06:14:52 pm
They're both Appalachia but SWVA is more Southern Appalachia and SWPA is more Midwestern Appalachia. And isn't PA-18 more urban? Suburbs make up a sizable share of the district.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Badger on February 04, 2018, 08:18:49 pm
They're both Appalachia but SWVA is more Southern Appalachia and SWPA is more Midwestern Appalachia. And isn't PA-18 more urban? Suburbs make up a sizable share of the district.

It's overwhelmingly Suburban, including some inner ring Pittsburgh suburbs.

EDIT: just double-checked the maps. It also has a lot of Rural and small-town areas in the Southwest corner of the state, but even some of those are for commuters to the Greater Pittsburgh area


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: J. J. on February 06, 2018, 01:08:31 am
It is basically small towns and older suburbs.  The suburbs have not been fashionable since the 70's.

Some sections are historically Republican.  I've referred to Ligonier as "East Prussia."  Yes, I grew up in that area. 

Westmoreland went Republican in 90's or 00's.  The part of the county that is Democratic is in the 12th. 


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 06, 2018, 08:16:26 am
Politico has a 2nd Republican dog sweat article!

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/pennsylvania-republicans-special-election-389964

All I've read is the headline.

On edit: it's not a dog sweat article. It's a "here's how we sent the cavalry in because Saccone sucks" article including ancedotes of incredible canvassing in icy weather.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on February 06, 2018, 08:24:01 am
Saccone and Lamb seem like respectively really bad and really good candidates.

If there was ever a chance for a Democrat to win this seat as currently drawn, this is it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on February 06, 2018, 09:10:24 am
I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: The Arizonan on February 06, 2018, 11:36:59 pm
Why is it that Republicans bothered defending GA-06 and this one? I mean there are hundreds of House seats and losing a few House seats won't make a difference.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Gass3268 on February 06, 2018, 11:39:25 pm
I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.

Agreed, but you can just smell the fear here and it's wonderful.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 06, 2018, 11:58:11 pm
Did anyone else know that Rick Saccone's wife is asian?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 07, 2018, 12:04:53 am
I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: yfnlucci on February 07, 2018, 02:56:07 am
I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.

Agreed, but you can just smell the fear here and it's wonderful.

keep feasting on the moral victories!!!!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 07, 2018, 03:06:12 am
I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.

Agreed, but you can just smell the fear here and it's wonderful.

keep feasting on the moral victories!!!!

Doug Jones says hi.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Ronnie on February 07, 2018, 03:21:02 am
I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.

Agreed, but you can just smell the fear here and it's wonderful.

keep feasting on the moral victories!!!!

Doug Jones says hi.

Not to mention all the state legislative seats Dems have won in special elections, particularly in Virginia.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 07, 2018, 08:36:30 pm
Another fantastic ad by the Lamb campaign. This guy is really authentic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Badger on February 07, 2018, 09:36:01 pm
Another fantastic ad by the Lamb campaign. This guy is really authentic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts)

Pretty good, but he has to train himself not to steal little glances at the camera when he's doing a ubiquitous "intimate conversation with someone in his living room" advertisement.

My biggest complaint of course is the utter lack of recorder music. What were they thinking?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Badger on February 07, 2018, 09:42:47 pm
I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 07, 2018, 09:46:20 pm
I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.

Not really a biggie in my book there, most of those people deserve it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Badger on February 07, 2018, 10:01:34 pm
I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.

Not really a biggie in my book there, most of those people deserve it.

Your use of the words "deserve" and, particularly, "most" are..... disheartening.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on February 07, 2018, 10:02:42 pm
I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.

Not really a biggie in my book there, most of those people deserve it.

Your use of the words "deserve" and, particularly, "most" are..... disheartening.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 07, 2018, 10:16:13 pm
Some terrorists and thugs just deserve punishment, it just does not work, so that's why torture should not be used, I mostly agree with this article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/8833108/Torture-is-not-wrong-it-just-doesnt-work-says-former-interrogator.html


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 07, 2018, 10:17:00 pm
Words like "torture" and "thug" are a flashing yellow light for this thread to go off track from a discussion of this specific Congressional race to a very heated and emotional discussion of a marginally related topic. Let's try to stick to the specifics of this election and not get sidetracked into volatile issues.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on February 07, 2018, 10:19:13 pm
Another fantastic ad by the Lamb campaign. This guy is really authentic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts)

Pretty good, but he has to train himself not to steal little glances at the camera when he's doing a ubiquitous "intimate conversation with someone in his living room" advertisement.

My biggest complaint of course is the utter lack of recorder music. What were they thinking?

Didn't notice it at first. Were you lost in Beautiful Flawless Lamb's eyes?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 07, 2018, 10:19:59 pm
Words like "torture" and "thug" are a flashing yellow light for this thread to go off track from a discussion of this specific Congressional race to a very heated and emotional discussion of a marginally related topic. Let's try to stick to the specifics of this election and not get sidetracked into volatile issues.

I am sorry that I do not embody the characteristics of an sjw, and do not think enhanced interrogation technics are immoral, albeit ineffective, and that is a legitimate and arguable position. I argued it respectfully, and all, but I see that you may not be keen on civil discourse on legitimate issues, that's fine. I hope you find your peace too.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on February 07, 2018, 10:25:17 pm
He just warned people not to go off topic. It's not that serious.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 07, 2018, 10:31:40 pm
He just warned people not to go off topic. It's not that serious.

He shows signs of possibly being bereft of the potential wherewithal to tolerate and allow viewpoints that differ from his own. It is quite disheartening, and I hope that he may have a change of heart in the future, and take a alternate perspective.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 07, 2018, 10:47:17 pm
He just warned people not to go off topic. It's not that serious.

He shows signs of possibly being bereft of the potential wherewithal to tolerate and allow viewpoints that differ from his own. It is quite disheartening, and I hope that he may have a change of heart in the future, and take a alternate perspective.

It doesn’t matter, this isn’t the board for that discussion kind of discussion.  Can we please move on?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Badger on February 08, 2018, 12:03:53 am
Words like "torture" and "thug" are a flashing yellow light for this thread to go off track from a discussion of this specific Congressional race to a very heated and emotional discussion of a marginally related topic. Let's try to stick to the specifics of this election and not get sidetracked into volatile issues.

Um, Brittain, you are literally one of the best mods around and always have been, but are you SERIOUSLY implying that one of the candidates in this race having committed torture and proudly defended it - - forgive me if I don't use pussy words like enhanced interrogation techniques - - is somehow NOT directly and inseparably related to that candidates Fitness for office? ??? I mean come on, if we are going to discuss Donald Trump's fleecing the gullible with Trump University, shouldn't a congressional candidates Unapologetic use of torture on prisoners is more than a little relevant? That this is somehow a "distraction" to the thread rather than directly related?!?

Sorry, but you this one time simply wrong , wrong, wrong. While bagel and I obviously have strong disagreements about the use of torture , he is dead right that it's directly related to this election on which the thread is based


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 08, 2018, 12:13:34 am
Words like "torture" and "thug" are a flashing yellow light for this thread to go off track from a discussion of this specific Congressional race to a very heated and emotional discussion of a marginally related topic. Let's try to stick to the specifics of this election and not get sidetracked into volatile issues.

Um, Brittain, you are literally one of the best mods around and always have been, but are you SERIOUSLY implying that one of the candidates in this race having committed torture and proudly defended it - - forgive me if I don't use pussy words like enhanced interrogation techniques - - is somehow NOT directly and inseparably related to that candidates Fitness for office? ??? I mean come on, if we are going to discuss Donald Trump's fleecing the gullible with Trump University, shouldn't a congressional candidates Unapologetic use of torture on prisoners is more than a little relevant? That this is somehow a "distraction" to the thread rather than directly related?!?

Sorry, but you this one time simply wrong , wrong, wrong. While bagel and I obviously have strong disagreements about the use of torture , he is dead right that it's directly related to this election on which the thread is based

Thank you for standing for productive civil discourse on important issues and tolerance of other viewpoints. It is very refreshing in times such as these.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 08, 2018, 06:43:14 am
Hey all,

I don't consider it the moderator's place to prevent discussion of relevant topics, so based on the response, I'm not going to stand in the way of discussions of torture as an issue if it is a point of disagreement between Saccone and Lamb.

My experience as a moderator is that discussions which get into enthusiasm for violence and vengeance against individuals, whether politicians, wannabe politicians, or classes of people, don't go well. This has happened with people like President Trump and Chelsea Manning and it just blows everything up and kills off other discussion. If we can avoid that fate and avoid overheated discussion, it won't get moderated.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 08, 2018, 05:47:57 pm
Hey all,

I don't consider it the moderator's place to prevent discussion of relevant topics, so based on the response, I'm not going to stand in the way of discussions of torture as an issue if it is a point of disagreement between Saccone and Lamb.

My experience as a moderator is that discussions which get into enthusiasm for violence and vengeance against individuals, whether politicians, wannabe politicians, or classes of people, don't go well. This has happened with people like President Trump and Chelsea Manning and it just blows everything up and kills off other discussion. If we can avoid that fate and avoid overheated discussion, it won't get moderated.


Please sir, I humbly entreat you to travel the path of honesty. It is a fact that someone deleted two unreported posts of mine last evening on this thread on the issue, respectfully arguing and backing up with sources, the case that torture against bad people is not immoral, rather just ineffective.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on February 08, 2018, 07:22:21 pm
Is Lamb accepting SuperPAC money?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Badger on February 09, 2018, 02:59:05 am
Hey all,

I don't consider it the moderator's place to prevent discussion of relevant topics, so based on the response, I'm not going to stand in the way of discussions of torture as an issue if it is a point of disagreement between Saccone and Lamb.

My experience as a moderator is that discussions which get into enthusiasm for violence and vengeance against individuals, whether politicians, wannabe politicians, or classes of people, don't go well. This has happened with people like President Trump and Chelsea Manning and it just blows everything up and kills off other discussion. If we can avoid that fate and avoid overheated discussion, it won't get moderated.


Please sir, I humbly entreat you to travel the path of honesty. It is a fact that someone deleted two unreported posts of mine last evening on this thread on the issue, respectfully arguing and backing up with sources, the case that torture against bad people is not immoral, rather just ineffective.

At the risk of derailing this (screw you Brittain :P), if you--correctly--acknowledge torturing "mostly" bad people is ineffective, then how is it not immoral? Surely the only possible argument for it is its utility in some people's minds picturing a "Jack Bauer--24" scenario where a new 9/11 is prevented at the last moment by a dedicated government agent who plays by his own rules breaking the individual fingers of terrorists until they scream out where the detonator is hidden, etc. etc. etc.

Without that scenario, which you and I both recognize is Hollywood fantasy and contradicted by actual intelligence interrogators, what possible moral justification remains for the use of such tactics?

Oh, and thus how isn't Saccone a poophead? (/obligatory reference to the thread subject)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 09, 2018, 11:59:35 am
Hey all,

I don't consider it the moderator's place to prevent discussion of relevant topics, so based on the response, I'm not going to stand in the way of discussions of torture as an issue if it is a point of disagreement between Saccone and Lamb.

My experience as a moderator is that discussions which get into enthusiasm for violence and vengeance against individuals, whether politicians, wannabe politicians, or classes of people, don't go well. This has happened with people like President Trump and Chelsea Manning and it just blows everything up and kills off other discussion. If we can avoid that fate and avoid overheated discussion, it won't get moderated.


Please sir, I humbly entreat you to travel the path of honesty. It is a fact that someone deleted two unreported posts of mine last evening on this thread on the issue, respectfully arguing and backing up with sources, the case that torture against bad people is not immoral, rather just ineffective.

At the risk of derailing this (screw you Brittain :P), if you--correctly--acknowledge torturing "mostly" bad people is ineffective, then how is it not immoral? Surely the only possible argument for it is its utility in some people's minds picturing a "Jack Bauer--24" scenario where a new 9/11 is prevented at the last moment by a dedicated government agent who plays by his own rules breaking the individual fingers of terrorists until they scream out where the detonator is hidden, etc. etc. etc.

Without that scenario, which you and I both recognize is Hollywood fantasy and contradicted by actual intelligence interrogators, what possible moral justification remains for the use of such tactics?

Oh, and thus how isn't Saccone a poophead? (/obligatory reference to the thread subject)

I view ethics and strategy as two different entities, and they don't cross in my mind barring extremes. Taking the issue of enhanced interrogation methods on bad people: for me, the ethics are fine, nothing morally/ethically wrong with it for me, strategy: there are better ways, its stupid, that's why we should not do it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: UncleSam on February 09, 2018, 07:01:23 pm
IMO Brittain is 100% right. Discussions on torture etc. very rarely stay on topic and very easily devolve into personal attacks. That being said, the fact that Saccone is very much in favor of it could be a significant campaign issue. Obviously Lamb will spin him as heartless and evil and he will spin it as being willing to defend this country against terrorists.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on February 09, 2018, 07:59:15 pm
I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.

Not really a biggie in my book there, most of those people deserve it.

Your use of the words "deserve" and, particularly, "most" are..... disheartening.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on February 09, 2018, 09:30:22 pm
The difference between the candidates' social media presence is funny. Not even the fact that Lamb has 10x the followers, but Saccone's just tweeting how wage increases for CVS and Chipotle are so good for PA-18 (lol) whereas Lamb's talking health care, social security, engaging with voters.

Saccone is horrible.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Gass3268 on February 09, 2018, 09:37:56 pm
Interesting note, but I read a tweet that the PA GOP moved Lamb's home into Doyle's PA-14 in their redraw map.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on February 09, 2018, 09:39:33 pm
Interesting note, but I read a tweet that the PA GOP moved Lamb's home into Doyle's PA-14 in their redraw map.

GOP must be sweatin' like dogs. They also have 2nd place Trump doing a rally for Succone


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on February 09, 2018, 09:45:10 pm
On the other hand, Biden's going to do a rally too.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Ses on February 09, 2018, 09:52:31 pm
Interesting note, but I read a tweet that the PA GOP moved Lamb's home into Doyle's PA-14 in their redraw map.

Wolf would probably veto that...and it also wouldn't go into effect until later in the year.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 09, 2018, 10:51:44 pm
Interesting note, but I read a tweet that the PA GOP moved Lamb's home into Doyle's PA-14 in their redraw map.

Wolf's going to veto it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on February 10, 2018, 09:09:19 am
Interesting note, but I read a tweet that the PA GOP moved Lamb's home into Doyle's PA-14 in their redraw map.

Wolf's going to veto it.

Hopefully.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Badger on February 10, 2018, 03:48:32 pm
Interesting note, but I read a tweet that the PA GOP moved Lamb's home into Doyle's PA-14 in their redraw map.

Wolf's going to veto it.

Definitely, but it also shows the Pennsylvania GOP is seriously scared lamb is going to win this


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 10, 2018, 11:56:04 pm
It seems like Saccone has been heavier with expenses than most legislators in Pennsylvania, although I don't see anything illegal here.

https://theintercept.com/2018/02/01/rick-saccone-congress-pennsylvania/


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on February 11, 2018, 08:45:58 pm
Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 11, 2018, 08:48:52 pm
Still a pretty terrible ad. They are attacking him on a tax bill he couldn't vote on.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on February 11, 2018, 08:51:33 pm
Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M

You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"

The GOP is such a joke


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 11, 2018, 09:14:59 pm
I disagree with like 85% of the stuff in this ad, but at least they finally made a somewhat alright attack ad with some semblance of issues, and without getting personal for once. Maybe if they keep it up, by next week their ads will have real facts actually RELEVANT to Lamb.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on February 11, 2018, 09:18:21 pm
Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M


You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"
S
The GOP is such a joke

So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?
Or, how did the GOP joke beat the Democrat joke in most of the swing states in 2016.
Or, how come the Democrat joke did not pass immigration reform in 2009 or 2010.

The actual joke may be that most of the public may not pay any attention to ads.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 11, 2018, 09:31:43 pm
\
So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?

Opposition to Obama and then Clinton, not actually standing for something. Now they're reaping the whirlwind.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Nyvin on February 11, 2018, 09:40:48 pm
Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M


You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"
S
The GOP is such a joke

So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?
Or, how did the GOP joke beat the Democrat joke in most of the swing states in 2016.
Or, how come the Democrat joke did not pass immigration reform in 2009 or 2010.

The actual joke may be that most of the public may not pay any attention to ads.

Hatred for women and minorities.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Young Conservative on February 11, 2018, 09:42:35 pm
Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M
It seems like a stretch to call being an Assistant State Attorney "working in the Obama administration."


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on February 11, 2018, 10:11:07 pm
Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M


You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"
S
The GOP is such a joke

So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?
Or, how did the GOP joke beat the Democrat joke in most of the swing states in 2016.
Or, how come the Democrat joke did not pass immigration reform in 2009 or 2010.

The actual joke may be that most of the public may not pay any attention to ads.

The GOP is finished. They aren't coming back from Trump. Lopsided control of state legislatures are a sign of an impending realignment, so enjoy this year. It will be the last we'll have to hear from the party that nominated a sexual assaulter with a 5 decade history of conning people.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on February 11, 2018, 10:13:41 pm
\
So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?

Opposition to Obama and then Clinton, not actually standing for something. Now they're reaping the whirlwind.

So, the Democrats will use the pendulum to swing back by being against Trump.

If you think Medicare for everyone will get you anywhere in the long run, just start explaing how you are  going to pay for it.

A major factor in Trump’s election was actually his immigration proposals.

This probably needs to go to a different threa.  But there were also Obama’s lies about Obamacare.  By the way did he ever heal the oceans?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Ses on February 11, 2018, 10:31:54 pm
\
So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?

Opposition to Obama and then Clinton, not actually standing for something. Now they're reaping the whirlwind.

So, the Democrats will use the pendulum to swing back by being against Trump.

If you think Medicare for everyone will get you anywhere in the long run, just start explaing how you are  going to pay for it.

A major factor in Trump’s election was actually his immigration proposals.

This probably needs to go to a different threa.  But there were also Obama’s lies about Obamacare.  By the way did he ever heal the oceans?

Oh boy, the Roy Moore fanboy is back.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on February 11, 2018, 10:45:20 pm
Let’s say that with American torture the victim is still alive at the end. I agree that rmuch the evidence from torture is not valid. But some maybe.

Instead of torture Obama went full into killing targets with drones with lots of collateral damage to innocents.  Tell me how that is better than torture? I actually do not object to this process.  But if you object to things like water boarding in limited cases, you should be opposed to unlimited drone killings.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on February 11, 2018, 10:54:58 pm
Let’s say that with American torture the victim is still alive at the end. I agree that rmuch the evidence from torture is not valid. But some maybe.

Instead of torture Obama went full into killing targets with drones with lots of collateral damage to innocents.  Tell me how that is better than torture? I actually do not object to this process.  But if you object to things like water boarding in limited cases, you should be opposed to unlimited drone killings.
>ok, rescind your support donald trump, he doubled drone strickes


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Strudelcutie4427 on February 11, 2018, 10:59:42 pm
Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M


You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"
S
The GOP is such a joke

So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?
Or, how did the GOP joke beat the Democrat joke in most of the swing states in 2016.
Or, how come the Democrat joke did not pass immigration reform in 2009 or 2010.

The actual joke may be that most of the public may not pay any attention to ads.

The GOP is finished. They aren't coming back from Trump. Lopsided control of state legislatures are a sign of an impending realignment, so enjoy this year. It will be the last we'll have to hear from the party that nominated a sexual assaulter with a 5 decade history of conning people.

Bill Clinton?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: IndustrialJustice on February 11, 2018, 11:08:28 pm
So Saccone will probably win this seat pretending that Lamb is an open-borders globalist (even though he's waffling on DACA) who will be Nancy Pelosi's puppet (even though he's explicitly advocated for her replacement).

Why again do Democrats without an established resume ever tack right against these slimebuckets?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on February 11, 2018, 11:10:47 pm
Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M


You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"
S
The GOP is such a joke

So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?
Or, how did the GOP joke beat the Democrat joke in most of the swing states in 2016.
Or, how come the Democrat joke did not pass immigration reform in 2009 or 2010.

The actual joke may be that most of the public may not pay any attention to ads.

The GOP is finished. They aren't coming back from Trump. Lopsided control of state legislatures are a sign of an impending realignment, so enjoy this year. It will be the last we'll have to hear from the party that nominated a sexual assaulter with a 5 decade history of conning people.

Bill Clinton?

No...when Bill Clinton was elected...he was a sexual assaulter with a 3 decade long history of conning people....Trump.is the one with 5 decades


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on February 12, 2018, 12:07:01 am
Let’s say that with American torture the victim is still alive at the end. I agree that rmuch the evidence from torture is not valid. But some maybe.

Instead of torture Obama went full into killing targets with drones with lots of collateral damage to innocents.  Tell me how that is better than torture? I actually do not object to this process.  But if you object to things like water boarding in limited cases, you should be opposed to unlimited drone killings.
>ok, rescind your support donald trump, he doubled drone strickes

Can you read?  I said I did not object to the process.  I merely pointed out that if you are adamantly opposed to water boarding it seems you would be opposed to such indiscriminate killings with the collateral damage.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on February 12, 2018, 12:08:15 am
From the Daily Beast, an unexpected source, there is evidence that the allies in WWII used torture, a/k/a “enhancedinterrogation techniques”  to gain valuable information:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-torture-helped-win-wwii

This article below seems to say torture does not really work.  But admits some of the evidence leading to Osma Bin Ladin and his killing may have come from partners who used torture:

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/jan/26/does-torture-work-and-is-it-worth-the-cost-donald-trump

I am not sure there is a definitive answer. 

Let me ask is sleep deprivation torture.



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on February 12, 2018, 12:38:16 am
Thought this was a thread about a special election in PA-18.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Ses on February 12, 2018, 12:58:32 am
Thought this was a thread about a special election in PA-18.

King Lear's getting a new roommate.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Anonymous on February 12, 2018, 01:00:27 am
Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M


You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"
S
The GOP is such a joke

So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?
Or, how did the GOP joke beat the Democrat joke in most of the swing states in 2016.
Or, how come the Democrat joke did not pass immigration reform in 2009 or 2010.

The actual joke may be that most of the public may not pay any attention to ads.

The GOP is finished. They aren't coming back from Trump. Lopsided control of state legislatures are a sign of an impending realignment, so enjoy this year. It will be the last we'll have to hear from the party that nominated a sexual assaulter with a 5 decade history of conning people.

This is what we were saying in 2016 too. Do not underestimate the stupidity and deplorability of Americans who knew that they were getting a sexual assaulter with a five-decade history of conning people and who fantasizes sleeping with his daughter when they elected him regardless. Democrats have to have a message other than Trump is a bad man.

I hope you're right, but I have very low expectations for this country after the atrocity that it committed in 2016. And don't forget that Trump's boss Vladimir will still be interfering with the midterms and trying to get more Republicans elected since they are the party that will abet him in destroying the country.  


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 12, 2018, 07:38:23 am
Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M


You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"
S
The GOP is such a joke

So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?
Or, how did the GOP joke beat the Democrat joke in most of the swing states in 2016.
Or, how come the Democrat joke did not pass immigration reform in 2009 or 2010.

The actual joke may be that most of the public may not pay any attention to ads.

The GOP is finished. They aren't coming back from Trump. Lopsided control of state legislatures are a sign of an impending realignment, so enjoy this year. It will be the last we'll have to hear from the party that nominated a sexual assaulter with a 5 decade history of conning people.

This is what we were saying in 2016 too. Do not underestimate the stupidity and deplorability of Americans who knew that they were getting a sexual assaulter with a five-decade history of conning people and who fantasizes sleeping with his daughter when they elected him regardless. Democrats have to have a message other than Trump is a bad man.

I hope you're right, but I have very low expectations for this country after the atrocity that it committed in 2016. And don't forget that Trump's boss Vladimir will still be interfering with the midterms and trying to get more Republicans elected since they are the party that will abet him in destroying the country.  

Do we think Putin is interfering in PA-18? I don't know if we've seen any sign of it yet.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 12, 2018, 07:40:45 am
\
So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?

Opposition to Obama and then Clinton, not actually standing for something. Now they're reaping the whirlwind.

So, the Democrats will use the pendulum to swing back by being against Trump.

If you think Medicare for everyone will get you anywhere in the long run, just start explaing how you are  going to pay for it.

A major factor in Trump’s election was actually his immigration proposals.

This probably needs to go to a different threa.  But there were also Obama’s lies about Obamacare.  By the way did he ever heal the oceans?

Do you think the state of the oceans will be a major issue in the PA-18 special election? They are in a certain sense; the Democratic party's opposition to coal should hamper Lamb in this seat, I would think. Does anyone know how he is handling this issue gracefully since it has decimated the Dems in Appalachia?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 12, 2018, 07:43:33 am
Let’s say that with American torture the victim is still alive at the end. I agree that rmuch the evidence from torture is not valid. But some maybe.

Instead of torture Obama went full into killing targets with drones with lots of collateral damage to innocents.  Tell me how that is better than torture? I actually do not object to this process.  But if you object to things like water boarding in limited cases, you should be opposed to unlimited drone killings.
>ok, rescind your support donald trump, he doubled drone strickes

Can you read?  I said I did not object to the process.  I merely pointed out that if you are adamantly opposed to water boarding it seems you would be opposed to such indiscriminate killings with the collateral damage.

What are Saccone's and Lamb's positions on drone strikes in the PA-18 special election? Since both have relatively recent military service, they may have informed opinions.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Andy on February 12, 2018, 03:24:14 pm
Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M


You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"
S
The GOP is such a joke

So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?
Or, how did the GOP joke beat the Democrat joke in most of the swing states in 2016.
Or, how come the Democrat joke did not pass immigration reform in 2009 or 2010.

The actual joke may be that most of the public may not pay any attention to ads.

The GOP is finished. They aren't coming back from Trump. Lopsided control of state legislatures are a sign of an impending realignment, so enjoy this year. It will be the last we'll have to hear from the party that nominated a sexual assaulter with a 5 decade history of conning people.

Lol. Even if the GOP is completely BTFO in 2018 and/or 2020, they'll rebound again within one or two elections. Trump will be a distant memory by then. Such is the nature of American politics.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on February 12, 2018, 09:55:53 pm
Quote
Gravis Marketing
Gravis Marketing
@GravisMarketing

Working on a final Pennsylvania special election district 18 poll.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on February 12, 2018, 09:59:10 pm
Quote
Gravis Marketing
Gravis Marketing
@GravisMarketing

Working on a final Pennsylvania special election district 18 poll.

I don't know whether to be happy that there's a poll coming, or unhappy because it's Gravis.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on February 12, 2018, 11:02:08 pm
Final?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Arch on February 12, 2018, 11:10:37 pm

50-47 (D) hold


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on February 13, 2018, 12:26:28 am
Lol. Even if the GOP is completely BTFO in 2018 and/or 2020, they'll rebound again within one or two elections. Trump will be a distant memory by then. Such is the nature of American politics.

Don’t feed the troll, this is part of his shtick.

In any case, Lamb is favored in this race. I think he wins by 3-5.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: THE BuckeyeNut on February 13, 2018, 09:03:17 am
Quote
Gravis Marketing
Gravis Marketing
@GravisMarketing

Working on a final Pennsylvania special election district 18 poll.

I don't know whether to be happy that there's a poll coming, or unhappy because it's Gravis.

Check Gravis’ poll rating on 538. They have dramatically improved.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: LimoLiberal on February 13, 2018, 10:23:46 am
DCCC isn't making another buy. Nothing suggest that Ds view this race as competitive.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Pericles on February 13, 2018, 02:23:07 pm
Ok Lamb's going to win or come within 5 points. Calling it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on February 13, 2018, 07:12:15 pm
Ok Lamb's going to win or come within 5 points. Calling it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: MT Treasurer on February 13, 2018, 07:22:37 pm

Is this supposed to be a bold prediction? :P No one except the most delusional R hacks are denying Lamb has a very good chance of winning.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: MB on February 13, 2018, 07:31:10 pm
Tossup.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on February 13, 2018, 08:00:31 pm
Lean R. Saccone by 4%.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Young Conservative on February 13, 2018, 08:23:07 pm
Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Ses on February 13, 2018, 09:10:59 pm
Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)

How is Lamb 'not moderate'?

Come on


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on February 13, 2018, 09:18:05 pm
Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)

For me, this sort of thing is beyond frustrating because this is exactly what Larry Hogan (who is a very hardcore Conservative Republican), the Governor of the state I live in is doing.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on February 14, 2018, 03:39:38 pm
Poll tomorrow

Quote
MonmouthPoll
MonmouthPoll
@MonmouthPoll

COMING TOMORROW: #PA18 special election LV poll

Which candidate is leading for US Congress

@Saccone4PA18
 or
@ConorLambPA?



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Ses on February 14, 2018, 03:46:04 pm
How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on February 14, 2018, 03:48:15 pm
How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

In VA-GOV, they consistently showed a close race (tied to a small Northam lead).


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: LimoLiberal on February 14, 2018, 03:52:46 pm
How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

They had Gillespie +1 than Northam +2 in the final few weeks of VA-Gov. Fail.

Their Alabama poll was very good, with a 46-46 tie at a 2017 electorate and 48-45 Jones in a Democratic turnout surge.

They had Murphy +14 in NJ, very well done.

Overall good, and I loved their turnout model idea in Alabama.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 14, 2018, 05:20:58 pm
I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on February 14, 2018, 05:26:27 pm
I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

Same


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Virginia on February 14, 2018, 05:49:05 pm
I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

The fact that this race is even competitive is a testament to how unfavorable this environment is for Republicans. It'd be nice if Democrats won it, but it's not really necessary, and it's not exactly a district Democrats could expect to hold for long at all (perhaps not even past 2018).

All this attention paid to it has set Republicans up for another round of gloating about how they managed to hold a normally safe R+11 district, completely oblivious to how low their standard of success has been lowered in the Trump era.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 14, 2018, 09:57:16 pm
Even if Conor Lamb won, media sites like The Hill will still ignore it and try to find a reason to believe the blue wave is "dead".


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Young Conservative on February 15, 2018, 09:09:54 am
If Conor  Lamb wins it’ll be because of these treee  factors ranked  in order of importance:

1. Saccone’s incompetence/potential corruption
2. Conor Lamb’s exceptional campaigning ability
3. National environment



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: KingSweden on February 15, 2018, 09:37:07 am
How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

They had Gillespie +1 than Northam +2 in the final few weeks of VA-Gov. Fail.

Their Alabama poll was very good, with a 46-46 tie at a 2017 electorate and 48-45 Jones in a Democratic turnout surge.

They had Murphy +14 in NJ, very well done.

Overall good, and I loved their turnout model idea in Alabama.

That turnout model thing smacked me of hedging bets at first, but I’d be interested to see how it holds up when other pollsters do it for other races


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: DINO Tom on February 15, 2018, 09:54:38 am
If Conor  Lamb wins it’ll be because of these treee  factors ranked  in order of importance:

1. Saccone’s incompetence/potential corruption
2. Conor Lamb’s exceptional campaigning ability
3. National environment



Gotta disagree with you there, I think it'll be:

1. National environment (without a historically toxic environment across the board for Republicans, this seat wouldn't even be remotely competitive even with everything else; I'd argue that this is far and away the most important factor.  Honestly, Saccone should be winning by like 15% without breaking a sweat even in a Democratic-leaning national environment, IIRC Trump won this decidedly WWC district by about 20 points in 2016)

2. Saccone's general incompetence as a candidate is what may in the context of the national environment may be what pushes Lamb just over the finish line, but the national environment is what made this race close enough that its not inconcievable for that 1-2% Saccone doesn't get due to lazyness/incompetance to be the deciding factor.  Anything within single-digits here should worry Republicans and if Saccone wins by 5% or less, then that's still a disaster for the GOP in terms of what it suggests about the midterms.  It'd certainly indicate that the "Trump/GOP rebound" narrative is...well...completely baseless.  This isn't like the Alabama Senate race where Republicans can just write it off as being about the candidate if they lose.  Saccone didn't help, but any Republicans who think this seat is in play primarily b/c of candidate quality are only fooling themselves.  

3. Well...actually that's about it.  I disagree pretty strongly with you about Lamb being some sort of exceptional candidate.  I mean, he's not bad or anything, but he's also nothing to write home about; he's simply an average candidate running a reasonably competent campaign.  Honestly, he's not even the strongest Democratic candidate in the district and IIRC was like the 4th or 5th (might've even been 6th) choice to run here.  Lamb only became the party's choice after all the top-tier recruits said they weren't interested and there's a reason for that: he's not a top-tier candidate (Lamb is on the weaker end of generic b-list, but Saccone is running such a lazy campaign that he makes Lamb look like a first-rate candidate by comparison).  Again, there's nothing wrong with Lamb per-say, but someone like Brandon Neuman or Matt H. Smith would have been a much stronger recruit.  



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 15, 2018, 12:23:10 pm
I am really upset about Lamb's exclusive and lobbyist filled fundraising events, while claiming to stand against this. I hope that he does not pull any more shenanigans like this in the future.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 15, 2018, 01:04:03 pm
Monmouth Poll.

Saccone          49
Lamb              46

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_021518/ (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_021518/)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 15, 2018, 01:05:28 pm
Oh sh*t.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on February 15, 2018, 01:05:51 pm
Com'on Lamb!!! You can do it!!!!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 15, 2018, 01:07:42 pm
At this point, if I had to say who would win, it would be Lamb.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on February 15, 2018, 01:09:31 pm
Gotta love that we don't have to change the title


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 15, 2018, 01:16:15 pm
Now we must ask ourselves whether this is Saccone blowing it because let's face it: he's an awful candidate, or it's because Lamb is a super strong candidate. I'm leaning towards it being a little bit of both.

It's pretty obvious that Lamb is no Ossoff.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 15, 2018, 01:16:22 pm
Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 15, 2018, 01:18:57 pm
This is just showing how godawful Morning Consult is. If Trump has a 46% approval rating in the state, his candidate would be running away with this. It's a southwestern CD for crying out loud. The poll clearly shows a lot of this is a backlash against Trump.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 15, 2018, 01:28:13 pm
Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 15, 2018, 02:04:55 pm
People like Conor Lamb give me so much hope for our party. I really want him to win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on February 15, 2018, 02:05:08 pm
People like Conor Lamb give me so much hope for our party. I really want him to win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Pericles on February 15, 2018, 02:15:16 pm


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: KingSweden on February 15, 2018, 02:24:53 pm


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: LimoLiberal on February 15, 2018, 02:31:21 pm

And Linda Belcher. The New Hope.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Devout Centrist on February 15, 2018, 02:31:46 pm
Well...I can actually see Lamb winning by 3 or 4 points. I think Monmouth has been a little off in their recent polling.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 15, 2018, 03:18:28 pm
Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: KingSweden on February 15, 2018, 03:32:11 pm
Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

I agree


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: DINO Tom on February 15, 2018, 03:49:12 pm
Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

I agree


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: henster on February 15, 2018, 05:27:37 pm
Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on February 15, 2018, 05:29:16 pm
Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
On the flip side the DCCC might be staying out on purpose so The GOP can't nationlize the race ala GA-06


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on February 15, 2018, 06:07:30 pm
Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.
On the flip side the DCCC might be staying out on purpose so The GOP can't nationlize the race ala GA-06

An idea I've seen floated on Twitter is that the DCCC may be waiting to see what the final PA maps look like in a few days.  They might not want to invest a lot in trying to help Lamb win a seat that he'd be likely to lose in November (or on the flip side, might be an easier gain for the Democrats then).


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: LimoLiberal on February 15, 2018, 06:14:07 pm
Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.

This makes me think internal polling doesn't have the race as close as Monmouth pegged it at. I'm still optimistic, but idk. Trump's approval and the generic ballot in that poll can't exist in the same universe as the generic ballot polling and approval rating trend we're seeing right now. Unless there is an absolutely massive turnout differential.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on February 15, 2018, 08:28:17 pm
Trump bails

Quote
David Martosko
David Martosko
@dmartosko

INBOX: No Trump rally next week in Pennsylvania


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 15, 2018, 09:33:51 pm
Trump bails

Quote
David Martosko
David Martosko
@dmartosko

INBOX: No Trump rally next week in Pennsylvania

Smart. He knows he's going to sink Saccone. His disapproval rating shouldn't be 48% in South Western PA.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: kyc0705 on February 15, 2018, 09:42:26 pm
I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

Considering that this is Atlas, your second sentence seems a tad redundant.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 15, 2018, 09:56:53 pm
Saccone would be one of the better Republicans in congress, it would be tolerable.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 15, 2018, 10:00:17 pm
Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: KingSweden on February 15, 2018, 10:03:05 pm
Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ehhhhh idk about that


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on February 15, 2018, 11:12:51 pm
Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.
Why? Was she more Conservative to your liking?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 15, 2018, 11:23:51 pm
Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.
Why? Was she more Conservative to your liking?

No, Lamb is plenty conservative, but I believe she has a better resume, does not hang out with big donors as much, and has held elected office, winning in a big Trump county. She's also not tied to the Obama admin, and I think she would rack up the margins in the Allegheny part of the district with moderate suburbanites and women very well, would do about as well as Lamb in the rest of the district aka losing it with a respectable margin, and then either keep Westmoreland close, or narrowly winning it, allowing her to win the district by 4-5 points. Westmoreland is a big and important part of this district, and I feel as though Cerilli brings to the table doing a lot better here than Lamb would, and I think she would do just as well in the Allegheny portion, due to raising up the female vote, and moderate suburbanites and suburban women. And its self explanatory that both of them would keep the losses to respectable margins elsewhere in the district.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 16, 2018, 01:51:14 am
Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

And Doug Jones would've won if he was pro-life.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 16, 2018, 01:54:42 am
Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

And Doug Jones would've won if he was pro-life.

Yes, probably by 5-6 pts.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 16, 2018, 06:46:44 am
Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ok, so with a different candidate we'd be running 16 points ahead of the district's PVI? Based on what? 


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Lean Branson on February 16, 2018, 08:13:46 am
Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ok, so with a different candidate we'd be running 16 points ahead of the district's PVI? Based on what? 

The power of wishful thinking.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 16, 2018, 08:17:56 am
Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ok, so with a different candidate we'd be running 16 points ahead of the district's PVI? Based on what? 

I just said it, typical one liner.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2018, 12:04:02 pm
This Monmouth poll is similar to my early prediction from about a month ago ...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on February 16, 2018, 12:30:14 pm
bumping my prediction up to 54-44 sacone, as republicans are bringing in millions


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Justice Blair on February 16, 2018, 02:43:04 pm
Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on February 16, 2018, 02:49:53 pm
Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

He has to to have any hope of winning this seat.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 16, 2018, 03:12:32 pm
Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

What the fu**

For a guy who is relying on Dem enthusiasm and turnout, this is a horrible move.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: DINO Tom on February 16, 2018, 03:52:39 pm
Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

What the fu**

For a guy who is relying on Dem enthusiasm and turnout, this is a horrible move.

Eh, that won’t hurt him at all in this district sadly.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on February 16, 2018, 04:01:22 pm
Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

What the fu**

For a guy who is relying on Dem enthusiasm and turnout, this is a horrible move.
a guy has gotta do what he has gotta do to win I guess


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on February 16, 2018, 04:01:45 pm
Yikes. Oh well. Pre-emptive defense for the eventual gun discussion in Monday's debate.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: LimoLiberal on February 16, 2018, 04:05:37 pm
The only way that Lamb is hurt by his comments is when Nancy Smith, a 54 year old social worker from Arlington or San Francisco or Bethesda or Evanston or Belmont, who tweets #resist on twitter and goes to her local indivisible meetings every week, decides not to donate to him. It's a politically savvy position for his district. Not a politically savvy position for accumulating a massive amount of out-of-state donations, a la Jonny from Georgia.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: henster on February 16, 2018, 04:16:29 pm
Even background checks barely passed in NV and lost in Maine, Dems hoping for gains by running hard on gun control will be sorely disappointed.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 16, 2018, 04:27:58 pm
It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 16, 2018, 04:29:47 pm
Even background checks barely passed in NV and lost in Maine, Dems hoping for gains by running hard on gun control will be sorely disappointed.

Yeah, shame on us for not wanting more kids to get shot up in school.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on February 16, 2018, 06:24:53 pm
It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Are we forgetting that Roy Moore has decades upon decades of bad behaviour and statements that sunk him?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on February 16, 2018, 06:52:06 pm
It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Are we forgetting that Roy Moore has decades upon decades of bad behaviour and statements that sunk him?

px's post has nothing to do with Moore.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 16, 2018, 07:05:08 pm
I am surprised Trump nixed campaigning in this district.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Skill and Chance on February 16, 2018, 07:53:10 pm
Lamb can win this if Trump's approval drops even 5% between now and the election.  As it is, I think it will be a bare bones Republican hold in what should be a safe district, sort of the reverse of what happened with PA-12 in 2010.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: DINO Tom on February 16, 2018, 08:00:33 pm
I am surprised Trump nixed campaigning in this district.

He already got his ego burned twice in Alabama.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: libertpaulian on February 16, 2018, 08:04:12 pm
It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Many cultural conservatives say they're pro-life, but in the end, enough of them can stomach voting for a pro-choicer. 

Guns are a different story.  There are a HELL of a lot of gun owners, and they will view gun control as affecting them personally.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 16, 2018, 09:41:39 pm
Conor is one of them, through the big donors and exclusive events, this gun grandstanding, his refusal to take strong stances on many issues, I have lost faith in him. Cerilli should have gotten the nom. Oh well. I don't want any of the three now. If I was a voting resident, I would not show up, and if I was forced to, I might just pick Saccone (probably not, still probably Lamb if I had to) to stand against these kinds of candidates.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Skill and Chance on February 16, 2018, 09:49:51 pm
Conor is one of them, through the big donors and exclusive events, this gun grandstanding, his refusal to take strong stances on many issues, I have lost faith in him. Cerilli should have gotten the nom. Oh well. I don't want any of the three now. If I was a voting resident, I would not show up, and if I was forced to, I might just pick Saccone (probably not, still probably Lamb if I had to) to stand against these kinds of candidates.

You're a proud supporter of Joe Manchin.  Doesn't Lamb have to act a lot like Manchin to win this district?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Holmes on February 16, 2018, 10:59:56 pm
That's peak Bagel. "I would vote for the Republican... I don't live in the district though... actually I would vote for the Democrat."


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 16, 2018, 11:31:25 pm
Yes, I am a big Manchin fan. Joe stands up for what he believes in, and takes definite stances on most issues. He was not afraid to stand with Hillary, he was not afraid to buck the NRA when he saw fit, he was not afraid to vote for the tax bill. You name an issue, and odds are that Joe has an honest and strong stance on opinions. As for the supposed waffling for the cameras, I can definitely see where people are coming from, but that is just being friendly with people who want a picture with him. You see how acitivists of all different colors walk up to senators, as seen with certain health care and disability advocacy groups go up to Manchin on capital hill, and probably some others with the opposite view go up again. And many of them want pictures with the senator when they meet with them. What are you going to say, no? Just because you meet with somebody does not mean that you agree with them. Look, I have worn kippahs to bat and bar mitzvahs, I have had been nice to people in authority positions in my life that I dislike, I have gone to both republican and democratic meetings and clapped at each. Does that make me jewish, or like people because I am nice to them, or a Republican? No. They are simply formalities, denying photo ops is usually a no no. Lamb waffles on everything, uh well ya know I'm pro life but I respect the law of the land, sure violence in schools is a problem and looking at gun issues could be beneficial but let's not burden the gun lobby too much more, yeah I stand against big money but I hang out with Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign finance chair, yeah I'm a democrat but forget that I am and just know that I'm against Pelosi harder than the GOP, etc etc. These are all Conor Lamb things. Also this race is getting nationalized and ya know no es bueno.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 16, 2018, 11:34:12 pm
That's peak Bagel. "I would vote for the Republican... I don't live in the district though... actually I would vote for the Democrat."

()

Sorry, yeah I did not phrase it well :P. Meant to say that if I was a voting resident I would not even show up, and if I was forced to, I would consider Saccone just to push back against the local dems for nominating Lamb, but being a solid dem, I'd probably rebound for Lamb in the end anyways.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Bagel23 on February 16, 2018, 11:35:38 pm
Manchin is not afraid go stand up and say that he backed Hillary, got with Toomey to try for gun control, slam Pence hard, say he is a proud democrat. Lamb weaves in and out and tries to ignore that he is a dem.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: henster on February 17, 2018, 01:59:36 am
Manchin is not afraid go stand up and say that he backed Hillary, got with Toomey to try for gun control, slam Pence hard, say he is a proud democrat. Lamb weaves in and out and tries to ignore that he is a dem.

The difference is that Manchin is an incumbent with a long history with voters. Most voters in WV know Joe over his career has been pro-gun and can forgive him for backing some gun reform measures. Lamb doesn't have that connection with voters he's starting with scratch so its best to stick with the standard position for this type of district.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Speaker YE on February 17, 2018, 03:40:26 am
Bagel isn't wrong about his establishment connections (http://freebeacon.com/politics/conor-lamb-bashes-special-interests-allows-fundraise/) but he's not taking any corporate or PAC money, so will he really do their bidding in DC or not? Also on what issues Conor Lamb has actually flip flopped on? Most people are somewhere in between pro-life and pro-choice, so I don't think his abortion stance is that problematic. I actually agree with you on the broader point that far too many Democrats trying to weave in and out of crap though Conor Lamb is less guilty of this than the infamous 2014 Kentucky Senate nominee who refused to say whether she voted for Obama or not or said 1996 Democratic nominee for president who sounded like a Republican on the debate stage.   


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Justice Blair on February 17, 2018, 04:00:42 am
Bagel can you stop defecating on this thread please?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 17, 2018, 05:11:34 am
It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Many cultural conservatives say they're pro-life, but in the end, enough of them can stomach voting for a pro-choicer. 

Guns are a different story.  There are a HELL of a lot of gun owners, and they will view gun control as affecting them personally.


Really?
Because all these years we are told that "Protecting the Rights of the Unborn" is THE issue for social conservatives,


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: President Johnson on February 17, 2018, 06:25:21 am
I have a feeling this will be another 51-49% heartbreaker for Democrats similar to GA-06.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Speaker OneJ on February 17, 2018, 08:59:03 am
Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

And Doug Jones would've won if he was pro-life.

Yes, probably by 5-6 pts.

There were socially conservative Democrats who were anti-abortion, I'm pretty sure of, who didn't even reach 40% across the South while Jones was already hitting 40% in the polls before Moore got exposed for the awful human being that he was (and still is).


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Mondale on February 17, 2018, 07:19:23 pm
It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Many cultural conservatives say they're pro-life, but in the end, enough of them can stomach voting for a pro-choicer. 

Guns are a different story.  There are a HELL of a lot of gun owners, and they will view gun control as affecting them personally.


Really?
Because all these years we are told that "Protecting the Rights of the Unborn" is THE issue for social conservatives,


Republican politicians aren't serious about the abortion issue....if they really were then they would of had the 32 state legislatures they control call for a Constitutional Amendment to ban abortion...but not a single one has.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 17, 2018, 07:26:37 pm
What is Bagel's hard-on for Gina Cerilli all about? She's my county commissioner, and let me tell you she's not that impressive.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 17, 2018, 07:44:35 pm
What is Bagel's harden for Gina Cerilli all about?

Well, she is a former Miss Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 18, 2018, 09:54:47 am
Gravis poll drops today.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on February 18, 2018, 11:05:28 am
9 point margin for Saccone. Calling it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Tender Branson on February 18, 2018, 11:07:58 am

Saccone up by 3-5.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 18, 2018, 11:20:45 am
Last one had Saccone up by 12 at a time when Republicans were already publicly worried about the race, so I'll say Gravis disagrees with Monmouth again and finds Saccone +9.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: The Other Castro on February 18, 2018, 12:25:32 pm
Gravis: Saccone +6

Saccone - 45.5%
Lamb - 40.0%

About a 7 point swing towards Lamb since the previous Gravis poll.

Quote
As the March 13th special election approaches for Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district, Gravis Marketing has released a new poll conducted February 13th through the 15th.  State Representative Rick Saccone holds a 45.5%-40% lead over former Assistant United States Attorney Connor Lamb.  The previous poll gave Saccone a larger 46.4%-33.7% advantage. The two polls used the same demographic weighting.

The managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan points out that “each candidate is taking away a similar ratio of votes from the opposing party.”  Saccone is taking 16.9% of Democrats while Lamb is taking 13.4% of Republicans. Lamb holds a 39.7%-31.6% lead among Independents.  Kaplan said, “There are still a lot of undecideds for a likely voter sample at this point.  There are certainly enough voters there to turn this into a narrow Lamb victory of a double digit Saccone win.”

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/02/18/exclusive-new-poll-pennsylvania-cd-18-special-election-race-tightens/


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 18, 2018, 12:53:50 pm
Cross tabs at the bottom of the link are interesting.

Saccone basically gets no one who didn't vote for Trump other than 1/6 of Johnson voters. Lamb gets half of Johnson voters and 37% of 2016 non-voters.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 18, 2018, 05:52:25 pm
C'mon Conor!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 18, 2018, 05:56:20 pm
Cross tabs at the bottom of the link are interesting.

Saccone basically gets no one who didn't vote for Trump other than 1/6 of Johnson voters. Lamb gets half of Johnson voters and 37% of 2016 non-voters.

More proof that Johnson probably hurt Clinton more than Trump.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on February 18, 2018, 06:06:06 pm
Cross tabs at the bottom of the link are interesting.

Saccone basically gets no one who didn't vote for Trump other than 1/6 of Johnson voters. Lamb gets half of Johnson voters and 37% of 2016 non-voters.

More proof that Johnson probably hurt Clinton more than Trump.

I mean, Johnson voters voted Republicans in the house by like a 60-40 margin, so I'm going to have to disagree there lol. This just shows that Johnson voters may be switching over to democrats after seeing the radical rightwing racist reaming republicans are doing to America.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Hoosier_Nick on February 19, 2018, 12:34:23 am
This is a good profile on Lamb:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/amp/story/2018/02/18/conor-lamb-pennsylvania-special-election-profile-217018


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 19, 2018, 07:53:15 am
Conor met with Moms Demand Action yesterday...

It looks like he’s trying to find a position where Saccone can’t attack him.

https://twitter.com/conorlambpa/status/965389456869126149 (https://twitter.com/conorlambpa/status/965389456869126149)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Bagel23 on February 19, 2018, 11:59:32 am
See, Lamb is sucha. flip flopper, ridiculous.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on February 19, 2018, 12:04:45 pm
See, Lamb is sucha. flip flopper, ridiculous.
Way to completely shatter any progress he made from that smart move he made in a tough district.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Ebsy on February 19, 2018, 12:42:22 pm
Does meeting with a group automatically change all of your policy position to match the ones they support? I am not sure that is how it works.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on February 19, 2018, 12:44:18 pm
Does meeting with a group automatically change all of your policy position to match the ones they support? I am not sure that is how it works.
Optics is everything. I'm sure no GOP candidate in a similar situation (Let's say a D+11) should line up to appear with Milo Yiannopoulos.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: LimoLiberal on February 19, 2018, 12:58:13 pm
See, Lamb is sucha. flip flopper, ridiculous.
Way to completely shatter any progress he made from that smart move he made in a tough district.

I would bet $1,000,000 that less than 2% of people actually voting in the special election will know that Lamb took this meeting, less than 1% will know what "Mom's demand action" is, less than 0.5% will have a negative opinion of them, and less than 0.01% will care. Not everybody is an atlas forum poster, dude.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: OkThen on February 19, 2018, 01:06:01 pm
Lamb basically saying new gun laws are not the answer, the focus should be on mental health...

http://triblive.com/local/allegheny/13308322-74/democrat-conor-lamb-says-new-gun-laws-not-needed-to-prevent-violence


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Holmes on February 19, 2018, 01:09:25 pm
Some of these posts remind me of the people who were writing Northam's campaign autopsy a week before the election.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 19, 2018, 01:21:51 pm
Some of these posts remind me of the people who were writing Northam's campaign autopsy a week before the election.

Remember when a union left Fairfax out of their campaign literature?
That really killed his campaign.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: LimoLiberal on February 19, 2018, 01:27:38 pm
Some of these posts remind me of the people who were writing Northam's campaign autopsy a week before the election.

Remember when a union left Fairfax out of their campaign literature?
That really killed his campaign.

Looking back, GOP operatives were extremely successful at getting MSM to concern-troll and hype every singe little "scandal" of the Northam campaign. There was the union flyer thing, the sanctuary cities "issue", Buena Vista Parade-gate, the Latino Victory ad.

It's legitimately crazy. There was day after day of frenzied media coverage of the truck ad, people calling it racist, pundits declaring it the downfall of Northam. Somehow everyone forgot that ED GILLESPIE HAD BEEN RUNNING RACIST ADS FOR THE PAST TWO MONTHS!

But Northam won in a landslide, so whatevs.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 19, 2018, 01:30:59 pm
Does meeting with a group automatically change all of your policy position to match the ones they support? I am not sure that is how it works.
Optics is everything. I'm sure no GOP candidate in a similar situation (Let's say a D+11) should line up to appear with Milo Yiannopoulos.

So, meeting a group that wants to prevent high school shootings is the same as meeting a Nazi.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: THE BuckeyeNut on February 19, 2018, 04:36:27 pm
Looks like PA-18 — now PA-14 — got more conservative in order to creater more Democratic districts elsewhere?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Ses on February 19, 2018, 04:57:32 pm
Looks like PA-18 — now PA-14 — got more conservative in order to creater more Democratic districts elsewhere?

I don't believe either Lamb or Saccone live here anyway...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 19, 2018, 05:21:42 pm
Neither Lamb nor Saccone live in the new PA-14 which is the Heir to PA-18. That said, I'm not sure PA requires congressmen to live in their districts - there is no national requirement for it. Saccone lives in Elizabeth township in South Allegheny, if he wins, he is fine. He is close enough to the district that he shouldn't need to move if there are no residency requirements, and moving shouldn't be a hassle if needed since the district is just a few miles away. Lamb on the other hand lives in Mt Lebanon, which is now in PA-17. If he wins, he has to challenge Rothfus to stay in congress.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 19, 2018, 05:22:44 pm
Lamb will be the favorite to challenge Rothfus in PA17, and he will probably win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Vosem on February 19, 2018, 05:25:55 pm
Incidentally, if Lamb does win, Rothfus could conceivably choose to run for reelection here; he is not particularly far outside of this seat's boundaries and could easily move, and given how Republican the seat is he would pretty much have a safe seat for life. You could see Lamb and Rothfus simply switching districts.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: LimoLiberal on February 19, 2018, 07:20:42 pm
I'm watching the debate here: https://www.facebook.com/CBSPittsburgh/videos/10155616382643822/

Lamb is a very good speaker... I'll be disappointed if he loses. He has a very good message. Saccone is basically just Trump, Trump, Trump.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Mondale on February 19, 2018, 07:29:32 pm
I'm watching the debate here: https://www.facebook.com/CBSPittsburgh/videos/10155616382643822/

Lamb is a very good speaker... I'll be disappointed if he loses. He has a very good message. Saccone is basically just Trump, Trump, Trump.

I watched 5 minutes of that and Suckone puts me to sleep


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Speaker YE on February 19, 2018, 07:47:56 pm
"Social Security is going to go broke this year" - Saccone

And Saccone just admitted to not paying his workers minimum wage.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on February 19, 2018, 07:51:11 pm
"Social Security is going to go broke this year" - Saccone

And Saccone just admitted to not paying his workers minimum wage.

What is he smoking?  Isn't the current estimate for the trust fund to be depleted around 2035?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 19, 2018, 07:53:10 pm
Yeah, Lamb is obviously the more superior and appealing candidate. Saccone is just trying to tap into the Trump base... he needs to realize that Trump only has a 51% approval in the district. He also sounds like an asshole.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on February 19, 2018, 07:54:19 pm
I still think this race is Lean R, but I am revising my estimate to Saccone winning 50-49.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 19, 2018, 08:00:54 pm
Oh God, that debate was painful for Team Saccone. If we are going off of Facebook and Twitter, Lamb should win in a landslide.

All Saccone really did was attack him on his nonexistent devotion to Nancy Pelosi...

This debate showed us that America needs young people with fresh ideas in congress.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: nerd73 on February 19, 2018, 08:02:17 pm
I have a feeling this will be another 51-49% heartbreaker for Democrats similar to GA-06.



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 19, 2018, 08:03:22 pm
I have a feeling this will be another 51-49% heartbreaker for Democrats similar to GA-06.



Conor Lamb is not Jon Ossoff, and he fits the district like a glove.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Truvinny on February 19, 2018, 08:04:45 pm
Longtime lurker. Signed up to comment on this race. I think Lamb is going to pull it out.
First off, special elections always get more people from the opposing party out, especially with someone so unpopular in the White House. Second, the polling is definitely trending Lamb's way. And Saccone is a terrible candidate, just a generic Trumpster Republican with no new ideas. I think this latest school shooting really drives the point home that if we need anything, it's new ideas. I look forward to seeing how this race turns out. This year is going to be a Blue Wave regardless of the result in this race.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 19, 2018, 08:05:38 pm
I agree, and welcome to Atlas!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Arch on February 19, 2018, 08:08:27 pm


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on February 19, 2018, 08:25:37 pm
Saccone really needs to get off mentioning Pelosi every single time. The ones who would hate anyone for siding with her are already voting for him. The swing voter won't care.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Arch on February 19, 2018, 08:26:38 pm
When is this election? The longer the delay, the more time has for Lamb to build coalitions. This Saccone guy seems like a complete tool/flop.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Truvinny on February 19, 2018, 08:30:37 pm

Thank you PittsburghSteel and Arch!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on February 19, 2018, 08:33:28 pm
When is this election? The longer the delay, the more time has for Lamb to build coalitions. This Saccone guy seems like a complete tool/flop.

March 13.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Arch on February 19, 2018, 08:36:21 pm
When is this election? The longer the delay, the more time has for Lamb to build coalitions. This Saccone guy seems like a complete tool/flop.

March 13.

Excellent


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: President Pence? Rly? on February 19, 2018, 08:43:09 pm
This year is going to be a Blue Wave regardless of the result in this race.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on February 19, 2018, 08:45:34 pm

Harry Enten:

Quote
Both of these are true (in my mind): A Lamb win or close race in PA-18 is consistent with other specials showing a big league shift to Dems. Also, don't read too much in any one special. See PA-12 from 2010.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/965344084633235457


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on February 19, 2018, 08:47:48 pm
Saccone really needs to get off mentioning Pelosi every single time. The ones who would hate anyone for siding with her are already voting for him. The swing voter won't care.

Not necessarily... polls have indicated that a lot of the undecided voters aren't really a fan of Pelosi. They also indicate that these undecided voters are more likely to support Connor Lamb if they know that he has a pledge to not support Pelosi.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Cactus Jack on February 19, 2018, 08:52:14 pm
If Lamb pulls it out here, I wager that the PAGOP will be feeling the pain of nominating Saccone for years. Come November, Lamb will be able to run in Rothfus' new swing district, another matchup he's very likely to win given the climate this year, and after that point they're unlikely to ever be rid of him. If the stars align for him, Lamb will be a shoo-in to take on (and likely take out) Toomey in 2022.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 19, 2018, 10:12:33 pm
If Lamb pulls it out here, I wager that the PAGOP will be feeling the pain of nominating Saccone for years. Come November, Lamb will be able to run in Rothfus' new swing district, another matchup he's very likely to win given the climate this year, and after that point they're unlikely to ever be rid of him. If the stars align for him, Lamb will be a shoo-in to take on (and likely take out) Toomey in 2022.

This. Whether Lamb wins or not, he's going to challenge, and defeat Rothfus in November. Conor is a rising star and the PAGOP can't stop him/


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Bagel23 on February 19, 2018, 10:23:07 pm
No, Cartwright and DePasquale would be better.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Holmes on February 19, 2018, 10:25:37 pm
The new PA-17 really is a gift to Democrats.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 19, 2018, 10:26:49 pm
The new PA-17 really is a gift to Democrats.

Haha Rothfus was my representative. I'm so mad my precinct is now in the more conservative PA14.

Anyways, Conor Lamb is Pennsylvania's best chance for a President in the future.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Badger on February 19, 2018, 10:30:05 pm
Saccone would be one of the better Republicans in congress, it would be tolerable.

Wut?

Seriously, wut?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 19, 2018, 10:30:36 pm
Saccone would be one of the better Republicans in congress, it would be tolerable.

The guy bragged about torturing people in one of his radio ads...

He's GWB and Trump's love child.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone only up by 3
Post by: Badger on February 19, 2018, 10:57:41 pm
It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Many cultural conservatives say they're pro-life, but in the end, enough of them can stomach voting for a pro-choicer. 

Guns are a different story.  There are a HELL of a lot of gun owners, and they will view gun control as affecting them personally.


Really?
Because all these years we are told that "Protecting the Rights of the Unborn" is THE issue for social conservatives,


Yes and no. There are a lot of diehard pro-life voters who will never vote for any candidate on the wrong side of this issue (and a number of such pro-choice voters, but fewer IMO who will actually switch their votes on this sole issue). However, there are a lot of nominal "anti-abortion" voters, many of whom if pressed don't really want to see abortion made illegal but still consider themselves "pro-life". Those folks will vote for a pro-choice Doug Jones (or Conor Lamb). However, many of these same voters see anti-gun legislation as "the first step to taking away my gun rights" and (egged on by a flyer and call or two from the NRA the week before election) will oppose any "anti-gun" candidate in a way they might let a "pro-choice" candidate slide.

There's a lot of such voters in PA-18. That said, I have to agree I'm not sure whether this is a right read of what he needs to do to win. I question whether he could argue for "sensible gun laws" while "still strongly supporting the Second Amendment". There are a lot of gun owners in the district who wouldn't be overly offended by that, outside the hardcore NRA voters who aren't likely to vote for him to begin with. Leave Saccone to take a typically hard line stance and seem out of step for the times.

I don't know. It's a hard call either way. All I can say to Bagel and others is Saccone will be no better. The question is which is more open to reasonable compromise if elected.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Badger on February 19, 2018, 11:08:26 pm
Longtime lurker. Signed up to comment on this race. I think Lamb is going to pull it out.
First off, special elections always get more people from the opposing party out, especially with someone so unpopular in the White House. Second, the polling is definitely trending Lamb's way. And Saccone is a terrible candidate, just a generic Trumpster Republican with no new ideas. I think this latest school shooting really drives the point home that if we need anything, it's new ideas. I look forward to seeing how this race turns out. This year is going to be a Blue Wave regardless of the result in this race.

Hi man, and welcome! Two questions: Do you have any authority for the idea more voters from the out of power party tend to show up for special elections? I mean, it FEELS like a correct statement in my gut, much like the general trend for off-year elections in general, but I was just wondering.

Secondly, have the polls really turned towards Lamb? They seem to have all been in a low to mid single digit Saccone lead. The most recent showing Saccone up by 6 is actually an improvement on the last two polls showing him up only 3 points each. Caveat for MoE and all that acknowledged, but I'm wondering if there's some other polls you're aware of, even via word of mouth from people in the respective campaigns?

Just looking for every crumb of info on this really interesting race. Again, welcome!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Badger on February 20, 2018, 12:47:05 am
OK, so how do the new maps for 2018 potentially affect the special election? I'm specifically thinking if I'm Saccone I loudly announce a promise that if elected to run in the newly re-drawn 14th District where the vast majority of current PA-18 voters reside. Basically making the argument of why elect someone who won't be representing you (or at least most of you) come next year? It basically puts Lamb on the spot to promise he'll run in the new PA-14 rather than against Rothfuss in PA-17 (which of course he'll never do), or admit he'll dump the voters he's currently asking to support him in Greene, Washington, and Westmoreland Counties to instead continue representing only the South Hills portion of the district.

A potential issue for Saccone?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Gustaf on February 20, 2018, 10:49:30 am
My vague reading would be that your typical Trump Democrat (if we are to annoy people by throwing around such terms) is exactly the kind of person who cares more for keeping their own guns than about some principles regarding other peoples' babies.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Chief Justice Keef on February 20, 2018, 11:15:01 am
OK, so how do the new maps for 2018 potentially affect the special election? I'm specifically thinking if I'm Saccone I loudly announce a promise that if elected to run in the newly re-drawn 14th District where the vast majority of current PA-18 voters reside. Basically making the argument of why elect someone who won't be representing you (or at least most of you) come next year? It basically puts Lamb on the spot to promise he'll run in the new PA-14 rather than against Rothfuss in PA-17 (which of course he'll never do), or admit he'll dump the voters he's currently asking to support him in Greene, Washington, and Westmoreland Counties to instead continue representing only the South Hills portion of the district.

A potential issue for Saccone?

That could be a problem for Lamb, but it'd be pretty easy for Lamb to make carpetbagging accusations against Saccone if the latter decides to run in the 14th.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on February 20, 2018, 12:00:55 pm
Badger,
Lamb now lives in the new Rothfus' district. It ils obvious he will run there and he won't be portrayed as a carpetbagger as he now lives there.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2018, 12:03:52 pm
I have briefly read somewhere that PA's congressional districts were ruled unconstitutional.

Does this apply only to the PA state senate and house or the US house races as well ?

And if yes, does it mean the special election will still be held using the unconstitutional boundaries (I guess yes) ?

And what about the regular November election ? Old or new districts ?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Brittain33 on February 20, 2018, 12:05:15 pm
I have briefly read somewhere that PA's congressional districts were ruled unconstitutional.

Does this apply only to the PA state senate and house or the US house races as well ?

And if yes, does it mean the special election will still be held using the unconstitutional boundaries (I guess yes) ?

And what about the regular November election ? Old or new districts ?

Special election in old map, November election in new map. Congress only. There's a monster thread down below.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Badger on February 20, 2018, 01:04:14 pm
Badger,
Lamb now lives in the new Rothfus' district. It ils obvious he will run there and he won't be portrayed as a carpetbagger as he now lives there.

I'm not making my point very well here. Right, there won't be any issue about lamb running in the 17th District. I'm wondering if Saccone could argue that voters in the current 14th should vote for him over land because outside of the part of the district in the South Hills, I am won't be representing anyone in this District after this year. If I am Saccone, I would argue that voters should choose a candidate in the special election who is going to continue representing them for years to come, not just for the next 10 months.

Again, that applies to all the voters in the current Pennsylvania 14 the South Hills. That is, the vast majority of the district. When inevitably question about his intentions, what is lamb going to say?



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 20, 2018, 01:07:36 pm
Badger,
Lamb now lives in the new Rothfus' district. It ils obvious he will run there and he won't be portrayed as a carpetbagger as he now lives there.

I'm not making my point very well here. Right, there won't be any issue about lamb running in the 17th District. I'm wondering if Saccone could argue that voters in the current 14th should vote for him over land because outside of the part of the district in the South Hills, I am won't be representing anyone in this District after this year. If I am Saccone, I would argue that voters should choose a candidate in the special election who is going to continue representing them for years to come, not just for the next 10 months.

Again, that applies to all the voters in the current Pennsylvania 14 the South Hills. That is, the vast majority of the district. When inevitably question about his intentions, what is lamb going to say?



Could be a potent argument, but the fact that Saccone too lives outside the new 14th makes him a flawed messenger.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Badger on February 20, 2018, 01:40:47 pm
Badger,
Lamb now lives in the new Rothfus' district. It ils obvious he will run there and he won't be portrayed as a carpetbagger as he now lives there.

I'm not making my point very well here. Right, there won't be any issue about lamb running in the 17th District. I'm wondering if Saccone could argue that voters in the current 14th should vote for him over land because outside of the part of the district in the South Hills, I am won't be representing anyone in this District after this year. If I am Saccone, I would argue that voters should choose a candidate in the special election who is going to continue representing them for years to come, not just for the next 10 months.

Again, that applies to all the voters in the current Pennsylvania 14 the South Hills. That is, the vast majority of the district. When inevitably question about his intentions, what is lamb going to say?



Could be a potent argument, but the fact that Saccone too lives outside the new 14th makes him a flawed messenger.

Well, sure, but unlike Lamb he can aggressively and convincingly vow to relocate to the new 14th if elected in order to keep representing the district's current (special election) voters, and persistently call on Lamb to do the same.

 Or would Saccone necessarily have to move to continue running in/ representing the 14th District even if he lives outside its boundaries? There was some debate about that earlier in this thread, or maybe the PA redistricting thread.

At any rate, the issue for voters might not be Who currently does or doesn't live within the boundaries of the new District, it's who is going to continue representing the voters of the district ( again, outside of the South Hills) after this year? Saccone can convincingly pledge that he will continue representing voters of the new 14th District as long as they wish to keep him, but lamb isn't going to be representing any of the districts Washington, Fayette, or Westmoreland County voters after December 31st, so why elect a mere caretaker congressman?

At any rate, I think, but I'm still not certain, that the best thing a lamb could do when inevitably pose with the question is dissemble about focusing on next month's election, leaving all opportunities open, seeking to represent voters in southwestern Pennsylvania who are seeing their health care and Social Security threatened, etc etc, and hope that redistricting and what district hill run in next year is too inside baseball for almost any voters to care about. However, if Saccone is smart - - so frankly I've seen nothing from his campaign or speeches so far to convince me of that - - he'll make this an issue and work his ass off to convince Fayette, Westmoreland, and Washington County voters that lamb will not be their congressmen after this year regardless of who wins the special election, so why not elect Saccone who will stick with representing them for many years to come.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: History505 on February 20, 2018, 07:23:49 pm
I'm not even from PA and this race has caught my interest. Will there be a live results map on March 13th sonewhere?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 20, 2018, 07:44:02 pm
I'm not even from PA and this race has caught my interest. Will there be a live results map on March 13th sonewhere?

NYtimes has done a very good job giving us detailed maps of every special election.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: History505 on February 20, 2018, 07:49:39 pm
I'm not even from PA and this race has caught my interest. Will there be a live results map on March 13th sonewhere?

NYtimes has done a very good job giving us detailed maps of every special election.
Great, thanks!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Truvinny on February 20, 2018, 10:48:49 pm
Longtime lurker. Signed up to comment on this race. I think Lamb is going to pull it out.
First off, special elections always get more people from the opposing party out, especially with someone so unpopular in the White House. Second, the polling is definitely trending Lamb's way. And Saccone is a terrible candidate, just a generic Trumpster Republican with no new ideas. I think this latest school shooting really drives the point home that if we need anything, it's new ideas. I look forward to seeing how this race turns out. This year is going to be a Blue Wave regardless of the result in this race.

Hi man, and welcome! Two questions: Do you have any authority for the idea more voters from the out of power party tend to show up for special elections? I mean, it FEELS like a correct statement in my gut, much like the general trend for off-year elections in general, but I was just wondering.

Secondly, have the polls really turned towards Lamb? They seem to have all been in a low to mid single digit Saccone lead. The most recent showing Saccone up by 6 is actually an improvement on the last two polls showing him up only 3 points each. Caveat for MoE and all that acknowledged, but I'm wondering if there's some other polls you're aware of, even via word of mouth from people in the respective campaigns?

Just looking for every crumb of info on this really interesting race. Again, welcome!

Hi and thank you! I'm mostly basing the SE turnout thing on races like the most recent Alabama election and the Massachusetts election in 2010. My comment about the polling numbers was more meant to reflect the general trend over the last few months. I'm not an expert by any means but I think there's reason to be optimistic.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: IndustrialJustice on February 23, 2018, 01:41:01 pm
Labor leaders are frustrated with Lamb, who has not mentioned unions once in his ads despite promising to run on the back of their support. His district is loaded with union members.

http://paydayreport.com/5000-teachers-storm-wv-capitol-lamb-upset-labor-pa18-virginia-state-house-passes-medicaid-expansion/


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Brittain33 on February 23, 2018, 01:47:47 pm
Do people think Lamb is wrong that a $15/hour minimum wage is too high nationally? If it was considered a risky, if successful, experiment for Seattle, PA-18 is at the opposite end of the cost of living scale. I really don't think this is the part of the country where this is a realistic goal and I wonder if voters there actually care about Lamb not signing on vs. national union leaders wishing they had his vote.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Brittain33 on February 23, 2018, 01:49:03 pm
Labor leaders are frustrated with Lamb, who has not mentioned unions once in his ads despite promising to run on the back of their support. His district is loaded with union members.

http://paydayreport.com/5000-teachers-storm-wv-capitol-lamb-upset-labor-pa18-virginia-state-house-passes-medicaid-expansion/

It's always nice to see rich kids from political dynasties tell their constituents that living on a starvation wage is Good, Actually.

Appalachia and suburban Pittsburgh are not going to lead the nation on a $15/hour minimum wage.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 23, 2018, 01:53:48 pm
Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: IndustrialJustice on February 23, 2018, 01:58:37 pm
Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on February 23, 2018, 03:18:02 pm
Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.

Once again, a Dem candidate is exposed as a corporate shill. News at 10.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 23, 2018, 04:00:35 pm
Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.

If Right to Work wasn't passed when Republicans had the trifecta, how can you say that it's on the verge of passing now with a Democratic governor?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: IndustrialJustice on February 23, 2018, 04:12:12 pm
Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.

If Right to Work wasn't passed when Republicans had the trifecta, how can you say that it's on the verge of passing now with a Democratic governor?

1. I said "in a few years," implying that the outcome may depend on which party is in the governor's office.
2. Some western Pennsylvanian Republicans did not or do not support Right to Work--Tim Murphy being one of them, as he actually boasted some decent union support in the area. Someone can correct me here, but Rick Saccone would probably be the first anti-union politician to represent this district.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Dynamite Shovel on February 23, 2018, 04:52:23 pm
Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.

If Right to Work wasn't passed when Republicans had the trifecta, how can you say that it's on the verge of passing now with a Democratic governor?

1. I said "in a few years," implying that the outcome may depend on which party is in the governor's office.
2. Some western Pennsylvanian Republicans did not or do not support Right to Work--Tim Murphy being one of them, as he actually boasted some decent union support in the area. Someone can correct me here, but Rick Saccone would probably be the first anti-union politician to represent this district.

Election is for Congress though, not the PA state legislature.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: LimoLiberal on February 25, 2018, 10:49:32 pm
This is a robotic, defensive ad from Lamb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYEUHmTe68


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on February 25, 2018, 10:58:10 pm
This is a robotic, defensive ad from Lamb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYEUHmTe68

... How is it robotic in any way?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Arch on February 25, 2018, 11:05:22 pm
This is a robotic, defensive ad from Lamb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYEUHmTe68

... How is it robotic in any way?

Remember this is Limo. Half of the time, he's editorializing everything to make it negative.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Hoosier_Nick on February 26, 2018, 12:04:11 am
This is a robotic, defensive ad from Lamb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYEUHmTe68

That was actually fantastic. Honestly, I think this is his best all election.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Georgia Is A Swing State on February 26, 2018, 12:14:59 am
That was actually fantastic. Honestly, I think this is his best all election.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Speaker YE on February 26, 2018, 12:50:25 am
This is a robotic, defensive ad from Lamb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYEUHmTe68

No, he does something that really I've only seen Bernie Sanders do. Pivot to substance when attacked about something non-policy related, and best of all, he does it in a concise manner.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 26, 2018, 02:19:47 am
For the gazilionth time: respect us who have limo on ignore and stop quoting him.

Thanks.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Ses on February 26, 2018, 02:26:22 am
For the gazilionth time: respect us who have limo on ignore and stop quoting him.

Thanks.

He actually posted the ad tho...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 26, 2018, 03:14:55 am
For the gazilionth time: respect us who have limo on ignore and stop quoting him.

Thanks.

He actually posted the ad tho...

You can quote the ad without the editorializing like many other posters do.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Badger on February 27, 2018, 12:31:08 am
This is a robotic, defensive ad from Lamb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYEUHmTe68

Thanks Richard.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on February 27, 2018, 01:25:02 pm
INBOX: Conor Lamb has raised a whopping $3.2 million since January.  It's why he's been able to be competitive with the outside GOP ad buys -- even with the DCCC pulling out of the race.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/968549891835400192


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Tender Branson on February 27, 2018, 01:26:41 pm
Is it just me or does anyone else think that this special election should be called off ?

Pretty weird to have the winner take the seat for a few months and then a new GE with new borders ...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on February 27, 2018, 01:34:55 pm
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/968553250235568128

And now Cook thinks it's a TOSS UP.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Brittain33 on February 27, 2018, 01:35:42 pm
Is it just me or does anyone else think that this special election should be called off ?

Pretty weird to have the winner take the seat for a few months and then a new GE with new borders ...

The winner would represent the district from certification until the new Congress meetings in early January 2019. That's a pretty long time and otherwise the seat would be vacant. The special election to replace Gabby Giffords took place in June 2012 just before a redistricting cycle.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 27, 2018, 03:21:16 pm
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/968553250235568128

And now Cook thinks it's a TOSS UP.

I disagree with them about the move, but they got a nice editorial here:

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/pennsylvania-house/pa-18-special-election-moves-lean-republican-toss


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: KingSweden on February 27, 2018, 04:36:16 pm
You can’t jam the Lamb

(Sorry)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Lean Branson on February 27, 2018, 04:57:15 pm
Saccone is probably narrowly favored to win, but this special doesn't feel that important. There's not going to be any substantive impact if the Democratic minority grows by one before November, and Lamb will be running in PA-17 regardless of whether he wins this race.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: President Griffin on February 27, 2018, 07:58:13 pm
I feel like this is a race where Saccone will win by 3 in the end, but my gut predictions have consistently underestimated Dems this year. Based on that, I'm thinking Lamb by a similar margin.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Mondale on February 27, 2018, 08:25:36 pm


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Badger on February 28, 2018, 02:51:50 am
INBOX: Conor Lamb has raised a whopping $3.2 million since January.  It's why he's been able to be competitive with the outside GOP ad buys -- even with the DCCC pulling out of the race.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/968549891835400192

Why on Earth would the D Triple C pull out? Is there a single special election race they haven't been dead wrong in terms of when to throw down and when the pool off. They go gangbusters for ossoff, but stay on the periphery for those razor-thin specials in South Carolina and Kansas that could have flipped. The examples go on and on.

Gives me some hope as a republican that we won't keep the house. So it depresses me in that I hate Ryan


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 28, 2018, 02:58:54 am
INBOX: Conor Lamb has raised a whopping $3.2 million since January.  It's why he's been able to be competitive with the outside GOP ad buys -- even with the DCCC pulling out of the race.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/968549891835400192

Why on Earth would the D Triple C pull out?

Like with Alabama, the less people hear about national Democrats, the better for Lamb.
Maybe they have some under-the-radar PAC spending money, again like in Alabama.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: ERM64man on February 28, 2018, 11:36:48 pm
If Saccone wins the special, would he win the new PA-14 regular election?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: DINO Tom on March 01, 2018, 07:49:38 am
If Saccone wins the special, would he win the new PA-14 regular election?

As long as Brandon Neumann doesn’t run (and he won’t).  The real danger for Saccone is the Republican primary imo.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Brittain33 on March 01, 2018, 11:20:30 am
Harry Entin: Five reasons Conor Lamb can win

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/969242495996563456?s=21

Two reasons I am more optimistic on this race than I have been all winter, even though Saccone is still favored:

1. We are two weeks away, and this race has not received national attention like GA-6. We political geeks know about it, but it hasn't really broken through to national news. I believe this means that disconnected Republican voters can stay dormant unlike in GA-6.

2. I only recently picked up on how much this is a suburban vs. rural district and has a relatively high rate of college educated voters.

The polls still favor Saccone, but I don't rule out a Lamb win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 01, 2018, 01:13:49 pm
Harry Entin: Five reasons Conor Lamb can win

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/969242495996563456?s=21

Two reasons I am more optimistic on this race than I have been all winter, even though Saccone is still favored:

1. We are two weeks away, and this race has not received national attention like GA-6. We political geeks know about it, but it hasn't really broken through to national news. I believe this means that disconnected Republican voters can stay dormant unlike in GA-6.

2. I only recently picked up on how much this is a suburban vs. rural district and has a relatively high rate of college educated voters.

The polls still favor Saccone, but I don't rule out a Lamb win.

I'm actually pretty optimistic on Lamb too. He's definitely had a better campaign than Saccone.

That probably means Lamb loses, though :)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 01, 2018, 01:24:44 pm
I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 01, 2018, 02:32:54 pm
Trump might cancel his visit. (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/trump-pennsylvania-special-election_us_5a983af8e4b089ec35382118)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 01, 2018, 03:01:26 pm
I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

()

Where's this photo from?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Holmes on March 01, 2018, 03:52:49 pm
Trump might cancel his visit. (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/trump-pennsylvania-special-election_us_5a983af8e4b089ec35382118)

I thought he already did.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Cory Booker on March 01, 2018, 03:54:05 pm
Obviously, Dems don't have the Casey or Wolf coattails to run on until Nov, but Dems will be successful in PA in Nov across the board.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on March 01, 2018, 06:53:04 pm
Trump might cancel his visit. (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/trump-pennsylvania-special-election_us_5a983af8e4b089ec35382118)

I thought he already did.

He was going to visit twice. He canceled the one that was supposed to be on 2/21, officially because of the Florida shooting, but obviously there was a deeper real reasoning. This is talking about the visit currently planned for 3/10.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 01, 2018, 08:43:05 pm
Anyone else feel like Lamb has massive momentum right now? https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/in-tight-pennsylvania-race-gop-struggles-to-land-a-blow-against-conor-lamb/2018/03/01/4f7678e2-1d5f-11e8-ae5a-16e60e4605f3_story.html?utm_term=.79368ea72e23


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Bagel23 on March 01, 2018, 08:46:40 pm
I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

()

Please don't be that profane here.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Cactus Jack on March 01, 2018, 08:58:14 pm
I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

()

Please don't be that profane here.

The epitome of class is lecturing us about being "profane" now?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: henster on March 02, 2018, 01:51:05 am
I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

()

Where's this photo from?

Is there a Mrs. Lamb? Hard to believe he's a bachelor unless..


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: JG on March 02, 2018, 08:05:45 am
I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

()

Where's this photo from?

Is there a Mrs. Lamb? Hard to believe he's a bachelor unless..

He doesn't mention a wife anywhere on his campaign website, which would usually mean that he isn't married.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 02, 2018, 11:00:35 am
Saccone supports the tariffs... not a good move, especially in SW Pennsylvania.




Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 02, 2018, 11:02:29 am
Saccone supports the tariffs... not a good move, especially in SW Pennsylvania.




Why? I thought all these Pittsburgh steelworkers would love it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 02, 2018, 11:04:14 am
Saccone supports the tariffs... not a good move, especially in SW Pennsylvania.




Why? I thought all these Pittsburgh steelworkers would love it.
Yep, great FF move for Saccone. He had shown he puts into priority people's livelihoods in this district. Lamb's turn.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Lean Branson on March 02, 2018, 01:23:19 pm
New poll just released, with Lamb up one.

@brd_polling
BREAKING: Our poll for #PA18 has been released

Conor Lamb (Democrat) 47% (+1)
Rick Saccone (Republican) 46%
Drew Gray Miller (Libertarian) 1%

I don't recognize the pollster, though. They seem new.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Bagel23 on March 02, 2018, 01:24:04 pm
New poll just released, with Lamb up one.

Can you give us a link please?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 02, 2018, 01:26:04 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 02, 2018, 01:28:03 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on March 02, 2018, 01:30:48 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Trump being 6 points above water in a district he won by 19 is a pretty terrible result.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Gass3268 on March 02, 2018, 01:32:40 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Trump being 6 points above water in a district he won by 19 is a pretty terrible result.

And Casey only being down 7 is amazing.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 02, 2018, 01:33:00 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbers for Casey.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 02, 2018, 01:34:38 pm
Pretty sure Casey won this district in 2012, so not sure how it's impressive for him to be -7 in a supposed "blue wave" year.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 02, 2018, 01:35:23 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on March 02, 2018, 01:36:52 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.
I doubt it will be that easy.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 02, 2018, 01:37:02 pm
Pretty sure Casey won this district in 2012, so not sure how it's impressive for him to be -7 in a supposed "blue wave" year.
Are we really surprised after Casey backstabbed Western Penn. on guns?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 02, 2018, 01:38:13 pm
I hope Limo is trolling because Bob Casey isn't even remotely vulnerable.

hofold, Trump canceled his events in the district because Lamb was closing in on the polls. You really think that he's going to campaign there now?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Holmes on March 02, 2018, 01:39:27 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Oh, that's how it works? I'll let Strange and Moore know the good news.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 02, 2018, 01:39:44 pm
I hope Limo is trolling because Bob Casey isn't even remotely vulnerable.

hofold, Trump canceled his events in the district because Lamb was closing in on the polls. You really think that he's going to campaign there now?

I never said he was. Casey is going to put up career-high numbers in the Philly burbs with Barletta running. But it's still distressing to see the continued erosion of Democratic strength in Western PA, even as the national environment is very blue.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Bagel23 on March 02, 2018, 01:41:16 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

While this may be true, the only visit Trump was planning to do was cancelled, and we now only have 11 days left, so it's a 50/50 if Trump even goes at this point. And Pence does not count, he does little, and is quite a bad fit for the district as well.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 02, 2018, 01:41:45 pm
I hope Limo is trolling because Bob Casey isn't even remotely vulnerable.

hofold, Trump canceled his events in the district because Lamb was closing in on the polls. You really think that he's going to campaign there now?
Considering that districts like the 18th are his biggest sources of support in the state , that is an unforced error which helps the Dems, I admit. (I'm not always doom and gloom.)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Speaker YE on March 02, 2018, 01:42:09 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

It’s not that simple. I’m pretty sure many people in Massachusetts approved of Obama in 2010 and didn’t just switch to Martha Coakley from Scott Brown after he campaigned for her.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Speaker OneJ on March 02, 2018, 01:45:51 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Honestly, it could be said that Saccone is in trouble if he's only statistically tied with Lamb while Trump is six points above water in a district he won by double digits. Not saying that Lamb is the favorite right now as we've seen something similar happen in GA-06, but the race is definitely pure tossup at the moment.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 02, 2018, 01:46:50 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

It’s not that simple. I’m pretty sure many people in Massachusetts approved of Obama in 2010 and didn’t just switch to Martha Coakley from Scott Brown after he campaigned for her.
See, I might buy that argument if the 18th isn't literally the place that swung heavily toward Trump 2 years ago. It was conceivable that Brown tapped into the growing discontent among working class Catholics throughout the state that swung from Kerry to McCain just 2 years before in '08.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 02, 2018, 01:47:32 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Honestly, it could be said that Saccone is in trouble if he's only statistically tied with Lamb while Trump is six points above water in a district he won by double digits. Not saying that Lamb is the favorite right now as we've seen something similar happen in GA-06, but the race is definitely pure tossup at the moment.
That speaks to an enthusiasm issue, not that the votes for Saccone aren't there.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 02, 2018, 01:55:17 pm
You guys do realize that it is very common for 20% of people who slightly approve/disapprove of the president to vote for the other party right?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Virginia on March 02, 2018, 02:01:23 pm
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Maybe, but I think you are over-simplifying how easy it would be for Trump to shift that many voters into Saccone's corner. Presidents can have a lot of influence over their party's voters, but they aren't deities. Trump-approvers are not all going to vote in lockstep with the president's party or with the president's wishes, just like Trump-disapprovers usually don't vote lockstep against POTUS/their party either.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 02, 2018, 02:10:41 pm
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Senator Roy Moore agrees with the jerk.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 02, 2018, 02:14:16 pm
Last I checked, Saccone isn't a pedophile...you know, the kind of thing that would have folks cross party lines by a huge amount to overcome partisan lean/DJT approval rating.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 02, 2018, 02:15:00 pm
New poll just released, with Lamb up one.

@brd_polling
BREAKING: Our poll for #PA18 has been released

Conor Lamb (Democrat) 47% (+1)
Rick Saccone (Republican) 46%
Drew Gray Miller (Libertarian) 1%

I don't recognize the pollster, though. They seem new.

They did a VA-GOV poll a week before the election and had Northam+6: https://blumenthalresearchdaily.weebly.com/home/archives/10-2017


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone slumping?
Post by: Lean Branson on March 02, 2018, 02:24:51 pm
Apparently the BRD numbers might be fake:



That's annoying.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone slumping?
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 02, 2018, 02:26:10 pm
Yep, so stupid.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone slumping?
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 02, 2018, 02:26:29 pm
Apparently the BRD numbers might be fake:



That's annoying.

Harry Enten seems to think it's fake: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/969651144862691329


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumping and Fake Polls
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 02, 2018, 03:10:11 pm
Emerson has a poll coming out today: https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/969585019470696448


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumping and Fake Polls
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 02, 2018, 03:13:17 pm
Trump coming to Allegheny County 3 days before the election --->




Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumping and Fake Polls
Post by: Tender Branson on March 02, 2018, 03:14:30 pm
Emerson has a poll coming out today: https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/969585019470696448

Quote
"Emerson College Poll: Roy Moore with Significant 9-point Lead in Final Poll."


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumping and Fake Polls
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 02, 2018, 03:17:20 pm
Quote
Trump reschedules Pennsylvania rally for March 10, just three days before the House special in #pa18, putting himself in the center of a very tight race

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/969666506140372992


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumping and Fake Polls
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 02, 2018, 03:18:28 pm
Emerson has a poll coming out today: https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/969585019470696448

I'm willing to put a bet that in the end the fake pollster will be more accurate than Emerson.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 02, 2018, 03:58:50 pm
Sounds like Lamb is ahead in the Emerson poll.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 02, 2018, 03:59:57 pm
Sounds like Lamb is ahead in the Emerson poll.

Not necessarily.  It might show a small Saccone lead, assuming the tweet isn't a complete tease to begin with.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 02, 2018, 04:11:07 pm
watch the major upset is saccone + 30


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone slumping?
Post by: Mondale on March 02, 2018, 04:12:23 pm
Apparently the BRD numbers might be fake:



That's annoying.

Shots fired

()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Holmes on March 02, 2018, 04:17:32 pm
A Fox poll too?

Why do always have long droughts and then days where many dump all at once?

Edit: Did PittsburghSteel delete his post?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 02, 2018, 04:18:32 pm
Because I don't know if it's true.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: henster on March 02, 2018, 06:38:41 pm
GA-06 had 15 polls for the runoff, we've had THREE polls of PA-18 so far.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: bandg on March 02, 2018, 06:40:03 pm
So much confusion in this thread
1. The BRD poll is completely fake/made-up
2. There is no Fox poll for now
3. Emerson is polling this Thursday-Saturday, and the poll is coming out Monday. So only 1/3 of the poll is done at this point.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 02, 2018, 06:45:42 pm
So much confusion in this thread
1. The BRD poll is completely fake/made-up
2. There is no Fox poll for now
3. Emerson is polling this Thursday-Saturday, and the poll is coming out Monday. So only 1/3 of the poll is done at this point.

Thanks for the summary.  Do we have any information as to when the pending Gravis poll is coming out?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: bandg on March 02, 2018, 07:04:33 pm
So much confusion in this thread
1. The BRD poll is completely fake/made-up
2. There is no Fox poll for now
3. Emerson is polling this Thursday-Saturday, and the poll is coming out Monday. So only 1/3 of the poll is done at this point.

Thanks for the summary.  Do we have any information as to when the pending Gravis poll is coming out?

No clue, but their last two polls have come out on Sundays, so that would be my best guess.


Title: Re: Gravis: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone +12
Post by: Lean Branson on March 02, 2018, 07:19:13 pm
Oh yeah, an 18-point swing is horrible. We're all doomed.

The worst consequence of a Lamb loss will be all the smug RED WAVE INCOMING posts, even if Saccone barely ekes out a win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 02, 2018, 07:31:00 pm
Jesus Christ, the header briefly changed back to “Gravis: PA-18 Saccone +12” and I had a heart attack.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Cath on March 02, 2018, 08:25:05 pm
I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

()

Please don't be that profane here.

"Profane" refers to the violation of that which is sacred; saying the Lord's name in vain, for example. You mean "obscene". Interestingly enough, C.S. Lewis in The Screwtape Letters, I believe, noted that Protestants were more likely to use profanity, and Catholics obscenity.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Bagel23 on March 02, 2018, 11:49:18 pm
I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

()

Please don't be that profane here.

"Profane" refers to the violation of that which is sacred; saying the Lord's name in vain, for example. You mean "obscene". Interestingly enough, C.S. Lewis in The Screwtape Letters, I believe, noted that Protestants were more likely to use profanity, and Catholics obscenity.

Grammar nazis everywhere...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 03, 2018, 07:02:29 pm
Another debate tonight starting in a few minutes: http://www.wtae.com/article/watch-live-pennsylvanias-18th-congressional-district-debate/19070188


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 03, 2018, 07:09:23 pm
Lamb says he's in favor of the tariffs.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 03, 2018, 07:14:54 pm
Lamb says he's for universal background checks, against raising the age to 21 for buying rifles. #resistance ain't gonna be happy with that.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 03, 2018, 07:57:25 pm
Lamb says he's in favor of the tariffs.
FF Move. If I were in this district, my vote for him would have been secured.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 03, 2018, 10:38:18 pm
Fine. I guess whatever he needs to do to win 😒. Just know that he is just doing it for the district. Once he is running against Rothfus he will oppose the tariffs.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: libertpaulian on March 03, 2018, 10:48:08 pm
Lamb says he's for universal background checks, against raising the age to 21 for buying rifles. #resistance ain't gonna be happy with that.
They should suck it up and be glad he's for something on the gun control agenda.  One slice of bread is better than no bread.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 03, 2018, 10:59:43 pm
Lamb says he's in favor of the tariffs.
FF Move. If I were in this district, my vote for him would have been secured.

Both candidates are pro-tariff which honestly is probably for the best in a seat like this. PA-18 has a hard labor/union tradition, and will probably oppose any candidate that did come out in favor of extreme free trade and the job losses that come with it.

The problem for Lamb though is that he is looking like he is going to be the 2018 nominee for the new PA-17, no matter whether he wins or loses. PA-17, the new one, is almost a near opposite of PA-18 on trade. The north Pittsburg suburbs will not stand for a pro-tarrif candidate, so Lamb will have to do a hard flip at least on this issue.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Jbrase on March 03, 2018, 11:16:22 pm
Lamb says he's in favor of the tariffs.
Gross


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on March 03, 2018, 11:55:56 pm

Its Pennsylvania. This place was built on tariffs. 


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Bagel23 on March 04, 2018, 12:27:17 am
Oh, I'm pissed with Lamb, pro tarriffs, really?! God darnit, I'm gonna take down his stupid a$$ sign. Too many straws on this camel. (Ik my opinion, endorsements, and actions don't matter, but it's just a thing I do, ok.)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on March 04, 2018, 12:32:07 am


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Speaker YE on March 04, 2018, 12:33:54 am


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Badger on March 04, 2018, 03:50:37 am
Oh, I'm pissed with Lamb, pro tarriffs, really?! God darnit, I'm gonna take down his stupid a$$ sign. Too many straws on this camel. (Ik my opinion, endorsements, and actions don't matter, but it's just a thing I do, ok.)

So you'll support the torture guy who supports the tariffs 110%? Ditto with gun control?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: morgieb on March 04, 2018, 04:46:47 am
Oh, I'm pissed with Lamb, pro tarriffs, really?! God darnit, I'm gonna take down his stupid a$$ sign. Too many straws on this camel. (Ik my opinion, endorsements, and actions don't matter, but it's just a thing I do, ok.)
You don't run on free trade in this district. Sorry.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Brittain33 on March 04, 2018, 10:37:48 am
https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/970282763415941120?s=21

Goodbye "Trump tax cuts", hello "Lamb wants MS-13 to babysit your grandchildren."

"Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation."


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on March 04, 2018, 12:17:08 pm
https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/970282763415941120?s=21

Goodbye "Trump tax cuts", hello "Lamb wants MS-13 to babysit your grandchildren."

"Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation."
And on the flip side https://mobile.twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/970311872334454785


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 04, 2018, 12:22:27 pm
The Gravis poll will be released Tuesday:

Quote
Releasing Tuesday our third and final poll in Pennsylvania Congressional district 18.   Sign up to receive our poll update. https://visitor.r20.constantcontact.com/d.jsp?llr=qywz99zab&p=oi&m=1127255694096&sit=bm7s8vjlb&f=a9ad62d4-dc80-4ab1-9f91-e9946eddf358 … #cd18

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/970338672406081538


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 04, 2018, 01:01:23 pm
https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/970282763415941120?s=21

Goodbye "Trump tax cuts", hello "Lamb wants MS-13 to babysit your grandchildren."

"Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation."
And on the flip side https://mobile.twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/970311872334454785

This ad will make krazey's head explode.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: DINGO Joe on March 04, 2018, 01:49:31 pm
https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/970282763415941120?s=21

Goodbye "Trump tax cuts", hello "Lamb wants MS-13 to babysit your grandchildren."

"Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation."

Yeah, the most dangerous thing in Appalachia is to have a relative or ex-boyfriend


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Bagel23 on March 04, 2018, 02:01:03 pm
Oh, I'm pissed with Lamb, pro tarriffs, really?! God darnit, I'm gonna take down his stupid a$$ sign. Too many straws on this camel. (Ik my opinion, endorsements, and actions don't matter, but it's just a thing I do, ok.)

So you'll support the torture guy who supports the tariffs 110%? Ditto with gun control?

No, definately not. Neither one. If forced, still Lamb, but otherwise, no.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 04, 2018, 02:14:58 pm
I swear to God he better not say anything remotely pro-Life.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Jbrase on March 04, 2018, 03:25:39 pm
Oh, I'm pissed with Lamb, pro tarriffs, really?! God darnit, I'm gonna take down his stupid a$$ sign. Too many straws on this camel. (Ik my opinion, endorsements, and actions don't matter, but it's just a thing I do, ok.)

So you'll support the torture guy who supports the tariffs 110%? Ditto with gun control?

No, definately not. Neither one. If forced, still Lamb, but otherwise, no.

There is always Drew Miller the Libertarian :P



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Bagel23 on March 04, 2018, 04:07:39 pm
Oh, I'm pissed with Lamb, pro tarriffs, really?! God darnit, I'm gonna take down his stupid a$$ sign. Too many straws on this camel. (Ik my opinion, endorsements, and actions don't matter, but it's just a thing I do, ok.)

So you'll support the torture guy who supports the tariffs 110%? Ditto with gun control?

No, definately not. Neither one. If forced, still Lamb, but otherwise, no.

There is always Drew Miller the Libertarian :P



He does not even live in the district, so no.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: libertpaulian on March 04, 2018, 05:04:30 pm
I swear to God he better not say anything remotely pro-Life.
He already took care of that issue for you.  He said he wouldn't have voted for the 20-week plus abortion ban.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Cath on March 04, 2018, 09:35:59 pm
I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

()

Please don't be that profane here.

"Profane" refers to the violation of that which is sacred; saying the Lord's name in vain, for example. You mean "obscene". Interestingly enough, C.S. Lewis in The Screwtape Letters, I believe, noted that Protestants were more likely to use profanity, and Catholics obscenity.

Grammar nazis everywhere...

*Grammar nationalist.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: Arch on March 04, 2018, 09:44:56 pm
I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

()

Please don't be that profane here.

"Profane" refers to the violation of that which is sacred; saying the Lord's name in vain, for example. You mean "obscene". Interestingly enough, C.S. Lewis in The Screwtape Letters, I believe, noted that Protestants were more likely to use profanity, and Catholics obscenity.

Grammar nazis everywhere...

*Grammar nationalist.

Lmao


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Badger on March 05, 2018, 03:53:27 am
https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/970282763415941120?s=21

Goodbye "Trump tax cuts", hello "Lamb wants MS-13 to babysit your grandchildren."

"Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation."
And on the flip side https://mobile.twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/970311872334454785

This ad will make krazey's head explode.

Oh, so there's two good things about it.

Makes me want to add it as a Sig in the hope it actually works.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone up narrowly
Post by: politicallefty on March 05, 2018, 04:47:38 am
I would rail Conor all night, like seriously look

()

Please don't be that profane here.

"Profane" refers to the violation of that which is sacred; saying the Lord's name in vain, for example. You mean "obscene". Interestingly enough, C.S. Lewis in The Screwtape Letters, I believe, noted that Protestants were more likely to use profanity, and Catholics obscenity.

Grammar nazis everywhere...

*Grammar nationalist.

Omg... damn, that's good. If I was one to put forum quotes in my signature, that'd be a winner.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 05, 2018, 09:00:12 am
Lol Salena Zito knows Lamb is gonna win and is already setting the new narrative:



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: DINO Tom on March 05, 2018, 09:46:54 am
I wonder if anyone actually thinks Lamb would vote against Pelosi for speaker if it came down to his vote :P


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: yoman82 on March 05, 2018, 09:56:51 am
Did nobody see the Emerson poll with Lamb +3?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Arch on March 05, 2018, 09:57:24 am
Did nobody see the Emerson poll with Lamb +3?

o.O?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Arch on March 05, 2018, 09:58:23 am
Emerson: PA-18 (474 LV)

Lamb (D): 48
Saccone (R): 45

D+3

Link: https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5d83bc45f4839ff4fb96bb8b8/files/4c844b0f-5529-417e-b125-3e880511a1e3/ECP_PA18_3.5.18_PR.pdf


Other tidbits:
-7% of LV undecided
-"It’s voter excitement that might put Lamb over the top. When asked about level of excitement among
voters about the election, 63% of Lamb voters reported being very excited compared to 53% of Saccone voters. Lamb voters also are paying more attention to the race, with 47% reported paying a lot of attention, compared to 42% of Saccone voters."


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Speaker YE on March 05, 2018, 10:01:05 am
Tossup but Emerson isn't a good pollster.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Gustaf on March 05, 2018, 10:01:51 am
Is this the first Emerson poll out of this race? Emerson isn't great but if anything haven't they tended to lean R?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Going along with It on March 05, 2018, 10:05:42 am
Is there any other incoming polls for this district. The trend is definitely in Lamb favor if the election is 50/50 on election night then Lamb should squeak one out.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Brittain33 on March 05, 2018, 10:07:06 am
Lamb surges into the lead on Predictit and now leads Saccone 57c - 43c.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Arch on March 05, 2018, 10:11:30 am
As I said a while ago, the longer this goes, the better for Lamb.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 05, 2018, 10:12:50 am
Is there any other incoming polls for this district. The trend is definitely in Lamb favor if the election is 50/50 on election night then Lamb should squeak one out.

Gravis is supposed to release one tomorrow.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 11:46:44 am
Btw, if Conor wins (Which looks likelier by the day) he becomes the favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 05, 2018, 12:04:08 pm
Btw, if Conor wins (Which looks likelier by the day) he becomes the favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022.


Ehhh.... Post-2020/2022 redistricting one of (new) PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, and obviously PA-10 are going to become less friendly to the Dems due to a neighboring R seat getting chopped. Whoever finds themselves without a seat probably challenges Toomey 100% of the time. So perhaps it will be Lamb, but he may settle in and we see Cartwright take up the banner in 2022. Except for the PA-07 guy, they all seem like fine candidates.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: ERM64man on March 05, 2018, 12:05:03 pm
Emerson College: Lamb +3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_18th_congressional_district_special_election,_2018#Polling).


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 12:05:50 pm
Btw, if Conor wins (Which looks likelier by the day) he becomes the favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022.


Ehhh.... Post-2020/2022 redistricting one of (new) PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, and obviously PA-10 are going to become less friendly to the Dems due to a neighboring R seat getting chopped. Whoever finds themselves without a seat probably challenges Toomey 100% of the time. So perhaps it will be Lamb, but he may settle in and we see Cartwright take up the banner in 2022. Except for the PA-07 guy, they all seem like fine candidates.

I don't really understand what you are trying to say but PA-17 is a tossup. It also happens to be the district that Lamb now lives in so he's likely to win it. He's young and energetic and that's what the Democrats need and that's who they are going to put up against the Tumor.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: KingSweden on March 05, 2018, 12:15:37 pm
Btw, if Conor wins (Which looks likelier by the day) he becomes the favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022.


Ehhh.... Post-2020/2022 redistricting one of (new) PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, and obviously PA-10 are going to become less friendly to the Dems due to a neighboring R seat getting chopped. Whoever finds themselves without a seat probably challenges Toomey 100% of the time. So perhaps it will be Lamb, but he may settle in and we see Cartwright take up the banner in 2022. Except for the PA-07 guy, they all seem like fine candidates.

I don't really understand what you are trying to say but PA-17 is a tossup. It also happens to be the district that Lamb now lives in so he's likely to win it. He's young and energetic and that's what the Democrats need and that's who they are going to put up against the Tumor.

Fetterman is a possibility too


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: DemocraticKing on March 05, 2018, 12:25:37 pm
Emerson College: Lamb +3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_18th_congressional_district_special_election,_2018#Polling).

Amazing news. It is Emerson, but it follows the trend we have been seeing.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on March 05, 2018, 12:29:31 pm
Emerson College: Lamb +3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_18th_congressional_district_special_election,_2018#Polling).
Lamb's probably going to win, the trend is all towards his direction.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 12:31:08 pm
All the momentum is on Lamb's side. He's going to win this.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Pericles on March 05, 2018, 01:04:18 pm
I thought this was probably going to end up as a narrow Saccone win, but now it's looking like Lamb will actually win it. I'd rate it 53.5% chance of a Saccone win, 46.5% chance if a Lamb win, could go either way.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: NoobMaster69 on March 05, 2018, 01:09:04 pm
I think Lamb’s got this, he’s got all the momentum at this point. Even if he doesn’t , he will win this fall in his new district. He’s good at this and got a really bright future ahead of him.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 05, 2018, 01:14:29 pm
Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 01:17:21 pm
Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: The Saint on March 05, 2018, 01:19:22 pm
Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.

A majority of them did, I believe.

But I do agree with you that this time is different. Trump's approvals are lower and Lamb is a good fit for the district. Between Lamb and Ossoff, Lamb certainly has a better chance.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: ERM64man on March 05, 2018, 01:20:50 pm
Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.
Speaking of carpetbaggers like Ossoff, does Gil Cisneros (D-Newport Beach) have a good chance of winning in CA-39?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 01:22:17 pm
Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.

A majority of them did, I believe.

But I do agree with you that this time is different. Trump's approvals are lower and Lamb is a good fit for the district. Between Lamb and Ossoff, Lamb certainly has a better chance.

You're right. RealClearPolitics does have polls showing Ossoff was ahead, but they show that his support waned over time, and by election day, Handel had the advantage. We are seeing the opposite happen here. Support for Saccone is waning.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: NoobMaster69 on March 05, 2018, 01:27:12 pm
Ossoff would have won had that special been just a little bit later. That was pre Charlottesville, pre healthcare, and pre tax reform. I don’t imagine that last one going over so well in GA 06 which has high home prices and the fact that it was laser targeted also to hurt upper middle class suburban people. The environment just wasn’t right then but I think it is now


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Brittain33 on March 05, 2018, 01:33:52 pm
In Ossoff, both Dems and Republicans voted like it was 2016, so Republicans won. In PA-18, it looks like Dems and Republicans will vote like it's 2017—high Dem turnout and crossover, low Republican turnout—although we won't know for certain until election day. (Or how much Republican turnout recovers for Election Day November 2018 from these dismal specials.) 


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 01:37:49 pm
Btw, I'm going back to campaign for Lamb today around 3ish? I'll let you all know how it goes. I'm also going to attempt to go to the GOTV rally where he and Joe Biden are rallying at Robert Morris University, which is tomorrow.

From on the ground: I do see a lot of Lamb signs in places where I saw hordes of Trump signs during the 2016 election. I've only seen about two or three Saccone signs. The guy just isn't exciting or energized.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: The Saint on March 05, 2018, 01:39:31 pm
Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I don't recall ever seeing a poll showing Ossoff ahead, though I may be wrong. But Lamb is nothing like Ossoff. Lamb is a perfect fit for the district he is running in. Ossoff, on the other hand, was a carpetbagger and never lived in the district. He was also never a really good campaigner.

I think we need to stop drawing parallels between the two. Lamb is a genuinely good candidate while Ossoff was just fake and doomed from the start. It took Jon losing for Atlas to realize that he was a bad candidate.

A majority of them did, I believe.

But I do agree with you that this time is different. Trump's approvals are lower and Lamb is a good fit for the district. Between Lamb and Ossoff, Lamb certainly has a better chance.

You're right. RealClearPolitics does have polls showing Ossoff was ahead, but they show that his support waned over time, and by election day, Handel had the advantage. We are seeing the opposite happen here. Support for Saccone is waning.

Very good point.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Speaker OneJ on March 05, 2018, 02:03:59 pm
Not to throw cold water on this, but remember that Jon Ossoff had lots of momentum and a number of polls showing him in the lead in the GA-6 special.  Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

This is exactly why I'm not getting too excited.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Gass3268 on March 05, 2018, 03:54:23 pm
Before anyone comes in here to freak out about the Lamb campaign getting outspent 2-1 on TV ads:

Quote
Mark Murray
‏Verified account
 
More Mark Murray Retweeted Mark Murray
Even though GOP has outspent Dems by 2-to-1 margin in PA-18, the overall broadcast TV spots have been fairly even -- due to Lamb's ad-spending superiority vs Saccone

Candidates get better rates than outside groups for ads.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 04:07:01 pm
Phone banking right now. People are so nice and I'm so upset when they say they are voting for Suckone 😭


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on March 05, 2018, 04:09:08 pm
Lean R

At this point, I think Saccone wins narrowly. About 0.5% margin.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 04:15:29 pm
Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: 2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable on March 05, 2018, 04:19:15 pm
Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

I am going off of analysis of all the factors involved in the election.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 04:25:29 pm
Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

I am going off of analysis of all the factors involved in the election.

I would disagree. Conor is outraising Rick, more Lamb signs on the ground, the polls clearly show Conor with the momentum, the environment favors a Democrat upset, etc.
I don't see how any of the factors favor Rick Suckone.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 04:26:23 pm
Predictit favors Lamb with 58% and has Saccone at 46%.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: RoboWop on March 05, 2018, 04:33:22 pm
Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

I am going off of analysis of all the factors involved in the election.

I would disagree. Conor is outraising Rick, more Lamb signs on the ground, the polls clearly show Conor with the momentum, the environment favors a Democrat upset, etc.
I don't see how any of the factors favor Rick Suckone.

Fundamentals favor Saccone; race-specific factors favor Lamb. Usually, fundamentals win out, but Lamb has (apparently) a massive advantage in the factors you list. If he wins, it should be close.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 04:35:39 pm
Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

I am going off of analysis of all the factors involved in the election.

I would disagree. Conor is outraising Rick, more Lamb signs on the ground, the polls clearly show Conor with the momentum, the environment favors a Democrat upset, etc.
I don't see how any of the factors favor Rick Suckone.

Fundamentals favor Saccone; race-specific factors favor Lamb. Usually, fundamentals win out, but Lamb has (apparently) a massive advantage in the factors you list. If he wins, it should be close.

Well obviously yes. The only thing Rick has going for him is the fact Trump won the state by 20 points and that it is a historically red district. But I'm not sure that's going to save him, and both he and Trump know that.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Justice Blair on March 05, 2018, 04:56:07 pm
The funny thing is regardless of what happens most sides will stick to their talking points; the GOP will say that Saccone was a bad fit for the district and wasn’t a good campaigner. Expect a couple of garbled early morning tweets.

I assume other than the primaries this will be our last electoral test until the midterms.

I also feel like this race is confirming that TV adverts are well not simply down to just spending millions; if Saccone loses this will be the second race after Alabama where what $10 million+ gets spend on TV ads and does very little


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: MT Treasurer on March 05, 2018, 04:57:53 pm
Lamb is obviously favored, but the more national attention this race draws, the more likely a Saccone victory becomes. Still, I think Lamb wins by 2.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 05, 2018, 04:59:03 pm
I'm not getting my hopes up. Still expect a small Saccone victory, especially if Trump's approval keeps edging up as it is now.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Gass3268 on March 05, 2018, 05:03:32 pm
Lamb is obviously favored, but the more national attention this race draws, the more likely a Saccone victory becomes. Still, I think Lamb wins by 2.

Bummer for Lamb that PA is one of the worst states for early voting.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Bagel23 on March 05, 2018, 05:06:52 pm
Predictit favors Lamb with 58% and has Saccone at 46%.

Obviously a great barometer, especially giving Ossoff in the 70s at one point. Predictit is garbage, learn it quick. I would not be too suprised by a Lamb win, but I think this is still Saccone's race to lose. Going into this, I was at about Lean R, Saccone wins 53-45, now I am thinking tilt R with Saccone pulling out 51-47.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 05, 2018, 05:11:53 pm
I assume other than the primaries this will be our last electoral test until the midterms.


There is AZ-08 and the jungle primaries in California.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 05, 2018, 05:15:07 pm
I assume other than the primaries this will be our last electoral test until the midterms.


There is AZ-08 and the jungle primaries in California.

Also the Ohio race.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Badger on March 05, 2018, 05:29:39 pm
Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

Well, I assume like most phone banks that you are targeting at least undecided to soft democratic voters, or possibly even just get out the vote for historically reliable Democrat votes. Even if it's the former, you should expect a significant lamb advantage, as not too many reliable let alone hardcore Republican voters are going to slip into your call list ( with inevitable exceptions of course).


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 05:41:01 pm
I'm not getting my hopes up. Still expect a small Saccone victory, especially if Trump's approval keeps edging up as it is now.

It's. Not. "Edging". UP.

Even when it improved to the mid 40s after the tax bill passed the Republicans still lost special elections, and saw significant swings against their candidates.

Limo, we all know you're a closet Republican and you're still questioning yourself, but this trolling is still really pathetic.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: VPH on March 05, 2018, 05:42:27 pm
I'm not getting my hopes up. Still expect a small Saccone victory, especially if Trump's approval keeps edging up as it is now.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 05:47:33 pm
Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

Well, I assume like most phone banks that you are targeting at least undecided to soft democratic voters, or possibly even just get out the vote for historically reliable Democrat votes. Even if it's the former, you should expect a significant lamb advantage, as not too many reliable let alone hardcore Republican voters are going to slip into your call list ( with inevitable exceptions of course).

It was a random HubDialer, so you're incorrect.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 05, 2018, 05:49:32 pm
What exactly are you saying/asking on these calls?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 05, 2018, 06:08:03 pm
I'm phonebanking right now but nobody is answering.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: King Lear on March 05, 2018, 07:33:05 pm
In light of recent polling showing Lamb ahead, I've changed my rating for this race to Lean Republican. However, I still believe Saccone will pull it off in the end, albeit, by a much smaller margin then I originally thought.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 05, 2018, 08:41:29 pm
Guy on r/TheDonald says Saccone internals show Saccone +10: https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/81q58w/pa18_going_back_in_the_right_direction_in_latest/dv8c005/
Therefore, race is Safe R now.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 05, 2018, 08:46:01 pm
Guy on r/TheDonald says Saccone internals show Saccone +10: https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/81q58w/pa18_going_back_in_the_right_direction_in_latest/dv8c005/
Therefore, race is Safe R now.

You dropped this -> /s


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 09:46:51 pm
Guy on r/TheDonald says Saccone internals show Saccone +10: https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/81q58w/pa18_going_back_in_the_right_direction_in_latest/dv8c005/
Therefore, race is Safe R now.

You suck at trolling.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Pericles on March 05, 2018, 09:47:37 pm
Delete your account.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on March 05, 2018, 09:48:41 pm


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Bagel23 on March 05, 2018, 09:50:11 pm
I unenthusiastically want Lamb to win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 05, 2018, 09:55:51 pm
I honestly think Biden's rally is going to pretty much lock in Lamb's victory. Of course, that may be an exaggeration, but Joe is very smart to help out Conor here. It scores both of them a few points.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: Badger on March 05, 2018, 10:36:02 pm


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 05, 2018, 10:43:02 pm
Sarcasm people. Sarcasm.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 05, 2018, 11:02:46 pm


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: smoltchanov on March 06, 2018, 03:17:51 am
Change my early prediction (Saccone by single digits) to pure tossup.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Xing on March 06, 2018, 03:29:07 am
Well, I'd like to think that I've learned lessons from both GA-06 and AL-SEN. This race is legitimately looking like a Toss-Up, and if more polls show Lamb ahead, I probably will give him the edge. However, no one should be counting Saccone out, either. Watch this thread get derailed into pandemonium if the Gravis poll shows Saccone up by 1 or 2.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: KingSweden on March 06, 2018, 10:14:00 am
The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on March 06, 2018, 10:16:58 am
The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

By the way,
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about this special election? I mean, no matter the result Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 06, 2018, 10:21:08 am
The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

By the way,
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about this special election? I mean, no matter the result Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.

I imagine there would be a slight advantage for Lamb taking on Rothfus as a fellow incumbent. Plus it would probably help push some more Congressional Republicans to retirement.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: henster on March 06, 2018, 01:06:35 pm
The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

By the way,
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about this special election? I mean, no matter the result Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.

I imagine there would be a slight advantage for Lamb taking on Rothfus as a fellow incumbent. Plus it would probably help push some more Congressional Republicans to retirement.

Something like this could have HUGE impacts on several other races like influencing Rick Scott on whether he should run.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 06, 2018, 01:15:11 pm
The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

By the way,
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about this special election? I mean, no matter the result Lamb will run in Rothfus' district.

I imagine there would be a slight advantage for Lamb taking on Rothfus as a fellow incumbent. Plus it would probably help push some more Congressional Republicans to retirement.

Something like this could have HUGE impacts on several other races like influencing Rick Scott on whether he should run.

Yeah. Also could impact fundraising.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: President Griffin on March 06, 2018, 04:30:18 pm
Solid, if you're going off of my phone banking then your prediction isn't accurate. Far more are saying Lamb, I'm just saying people are so nice and it's difficult when even the nicest say they are voting Saccone.

Well, I assume like most phone banks that you are targeting at least undecided to soft democratic voters, or possibly even just get out the vote for historically reliable Democrat votes. Even if it's the former, you should expect a significant lamb advantage, as not too many reliable let alone hardcore Republican voters are going to slip into your call list ( with inevitable exceptions of course).

It was a random HubDialer, so you're incorrect.

Even HubDialer/predictive dialing campaigns are usually configured to target a specific subset of the voting populace - in large quantities, no less, so that volunteers are constantly being placed on the phone with live voters rather than inefficiently dialing numbers manually. For instance, a campaign might target all of the solid Democratic voters in a county who have between a 40-70% chance of voting in an election.

Among whichever groups the predictive dialer is targeting, the person on the other end should be random, but I'd be highly doubtful (and skeptical of) any campaign just throwing any and all voters into HubDialer. That would be woefully inefficient. From the sound of your responses, you were likely being connected with undecided voters and/or soft supporters of both campaigns.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 06, 2018, 04:46:58 pm
Biden/Lamb rally at Robert Morris University at 5:00.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 06, 2018, 05:00:38 pm
This explains what I have been seeing.

@spicyfoodguy
Quote
I live in PA 18.  @ConorLambPA has 20x the signage HRC had.  And the Republican PAC TV :30s are dark, shrill, and the messages are all disjointed.  I don't know who is doing Lamb's Equity Ads but they are strong and positive.  Lamb is building momentum and will pull off the upset

The Republicans throughout this campaign have been pretty much just throwing sh**t in every direction and seeing what sticks.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Brittain33 on March 06, 2018, 05:13:23 pm
The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 06, 2018, 05:19:29 pm
The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21
Let's be real, this district's GOP voters have never voted on economics outside of tariff related issues. This is the wisest choice by the NRCC.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Brittain33 on March 06, 2018, 05:21:03 pm
The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21
Let's be real, this district's GOP voters have never voted on economics outside of tariff related issues. This is the wisest choice by the NRCC.

There's culture war, and then there's absolute desperation.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 06, 2018, 05:24:29 pm

There's culture war, and then there's absolute desperation.
The Dems have been anti-cop (a union-heavy lean D demographic before) and soft on crime since about 7 years ago. It alienates white working class much more than other demographics. It's not so much desperation, but an unforced error on the Dems' side.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 06, 2018, 05:27:20 pm
The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21

Rofl


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on March 06, 2018, 05:29:04 pm

There's culture war, and then there's absolute desperation.
The Dems have been anti-cop (a union-heavy lean D demographic before) and soft on crime since about 7 years ago. It alienates white working class much more than other demographics. It's not so much desperation, but an unforced error on the Dems' side.
With all due respect f**k off with that bullsh*t


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Virginia on March 06, 2018, 05:31:50 pm
It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 06, 2018, 05:32:55 pm
It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 06, 2018, 05:36:33 pm
It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.

Lamb is a former prosecutor. And your party is openly attacking the FBI for doing its job.
Troll.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Virginia on March 06, 2018, 05:39:50 pm
It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.

Keep in mind that as far as activism goes, that isn't something the party itself can just tweak until it gets it right. Those are real people out there, many of whom constantly see a side of the criminal justice system that just doesn't react the same way to vast swathes of white people. They don't really care about optics, even if maybe they should.

Also let's remember that many conservatives don't even believe that the criminal justice is unfair to PoC, or they substantially marginalize any perceived shortcomings. You can see this not only from the voters themselves but the politicians who represent them, as well as polls on relevant issues.

edit: as per Lyndon's comments, it does raise a good point - Republicans seem to be pro-police only up to the point where it doesn't threaten their political power or their Dear Leader. But once that happens, they seem to have no problem going full anti-FBI, which is funny because they seemed to pride themselves on being the guardians of the FBI for decades prior  >__<


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 06, 2018, 05:43:59 pm
It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.

Keep in mind that as far as activism goes, that isn't something the party itself can just tweak until it gets it right. Those are real people out there, many of whom constantly see a side of the criminal justice system that just doesn't react the same way to vast swathes of white people. They don't really care about optics, even if maybe they should.

Also let's remember that many conservatives don't even believe that the criminal justice is unfair to PoC, or they substantially marginalize any perceived shortcomings. You can see this not only from the voters themselves but the politicians who represent them, as well as polls on relevant issues.

edit: as per Lyndon's comments, it does raise a good point - Republicans seem to be pro-police only up to the point where it doesn't threaten their political power or their Dear Leader. But once that happens, they seem to have no problem going full anti-FBI, which is funny because they seemed to pride themselves on being the guardians of the FBI for decades prior  >__<

Hofoid constantly goes on about democrats talk too much about PoC, talks about how miniorities will always vote dem anyways (even though Hillary doing as well among blacks as Obama did would have given her a 328 electoral college victory), and constantly seems to disregard miniority struggles. I wouldn't take their posts about race particularly seriously.

Most progressives on this forum are generally good about combining economic justice and social justice, but this new user seems to barely care about social justice because we need to focus on muh "WWC" or something.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 06, 2018, 05:56:19 pm
It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.
True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.

Keep in mind that as far as activism goes, that isn't something the party itself can just tweak until it gets it right. Those are real people out there, many of whom constantly see a side of the criminal justice system that just doesn't react the same way to vast swathes of white people. They don't really care about optics, even if maybe they should.

Also let's remember that many conservatives don't even believe that the criminal justice is unfair to PoC, or they substantially marginalize any perceived shortcomings. You can see this not only from the voters themselves but the politicians who represent them, as well as polls on relevant issues.

edit: as per Lyndon's comments, it does raise a good point - Republicans seem to be pro-police only up to the point where it doesn't threaten their political power or their Dear Leader. But once that happens, they seem to have no problem going full anti-FBI, which is funny because they seemed to pride themselves on being the guardians of the FBI for decades prior  >__<

Hofoid constantly goes on about democrats talk too much about PoC, talks about how miniorities will always vote dem anyways (even though Hillary doing as well among blacks as Obama did would have given her a 328 electoral college victory), and constantly seems to disregard miniority struggles. I wouldn't take their posts about race particularly seriously.

Most progressives on this forum are generally good about combining economic justice and social justice, but this new user seems to barely care about social justice because we need to focus on muh "WWC" or something.

So, being concerned about lives (many of whom are blacks and other ethnic minorities) being taken by gang violence and other criminal activities is now considered "disregarding minority struggles". Got it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 06, 2018, 06:02:43 pm
Yeah, the GOP is really showing their desperation.


Btw, Gravis will be releasing their poll tomorrow morning.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Pollster on March 06, 2018, 07:42:44 pm
The NRCC’s closing argument for Saccone. Definitely the work of a campaign confident of victory.


https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/971140861089198081?s=21

Regardless of whether or not it will move the needle in this race, this ad looks like it could be foreshadowing the GOP's new talking points on guns as the NRA grows increasingly toxic - attacking illegal gun sales on the streets of the big liberal cities. Allows them to pass a bogus, likely race-baiting law addressing it that Dems will probably vote against, and lets them say that they are the party of "strong gun control."


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Saccone Slumps, Fake Polls, and Trump Visits
Post by: NOVA Green on March 07, 2018, 01:19:51 am
I'm phonebanking right now but nobody is answering.

Limo Lib in the words the Great and Late Janis Joplin:

"Mercedes Benz"

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends.
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a color TV ?
Dialing For Dollars is trying to find me.
I wait for delivery each day until three,
So oh Lord, won't you buy me a color TV ?

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a night on the town ?
I'm counting on you, Lord, please don't let me down.
Prove that you love me and buy the next round,
Oh Lord, won't you buy me a night on the town ?

Everybody!
Oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends,
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?


Are you calling at Supper Time perchance?

Two Grandparents (Now deceased) from PA, and they would never answer the phone during certain times....

SW PA CD-18 has an extremely high percentage of older voters where certain family traditions are slightly different than that of many large Metro Areas elsewhere, and not everyone is glued to a cellphone to their hip.

Plus I suspect many of these voters are sick and tired of getting called multiple times a week, and will just do their own thing without any help from polling organizations and the mass media....

Direct Mail and Door to Door contact from locals and friends and neighbors are actually much more effective in districts like this than phone banking (Although I appreciate your time and effort sir).

This is one of those districts where I suspect traditional polling techniques will give us little data from the bird entrails from that arcane science known only to the chosen few.



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Virginia on March 07, 2018, 01:44:12 am
A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: DINGO Joe on March 07, 2018, 02:33:29 am
A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up



Of course, there may be a massive blizzard that day, so you may not even want to leave the house.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on March 07, 2018, 02:34:22 am
A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up



Of course, there may be a massive blizzard that day, so you may not even want to leave the house.
Not to mention lots of rain.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: henster on March 07, 2018, 02:48:07 am
It sucks expectations have gotten so high that not winning an R+11 seat will obviously spark 'Dems r doomed' & 'GOP surge' stories much like GA-06. A few weeks ago I would've been elated if Lamb got within 10 now I'd be dissapointed/demoralized if he lost.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Scott 🤡🌏 on March 07, 2018, 03:34:43 am
A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up

lmao <3


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: kph14 on March 07, 2018, 09:28:29 am
Gravis (03/01-03/05)
Saccone 45
Lamb 42 (+2)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_PA_18_March_7th_2018.pdf


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: DemocraticKing on March 07, 2018, 09:37:56 am
Gravis (03/01-03/05)
Saccone 45
Lamb 42 (+2)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_PA_18_March_7th_2018.pdf

Still a tossup with hints of a Lamb advantage maybe. Down 3 points in Gravis, up 1 in Emerson.

Lamb losing by three bodes very well for Democrats in 2018 btw, including a PA-17 Lamb. Him winning would be nice of course.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 07, 2018, 09:38:59 am
Gravis (03/01-03/05)
Saccone 45
Lamb 42 (+2)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_PA_18_March_7th_2018.pdf

The closer to the election day, the more advantage Lamb gains. This has been consistent for a while now, and there's still a bit to go.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on March 07, 2018, 09:42:35 am
Gravis (03/01-03/05)
Saccone 45
Lamb 42 (+2)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_PA_18_March_7th_2018.pdf
Constistant with toss-up but Lamb gaining momentum


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on March 07, 2018, 10:18:16 am
https://www.axios.com/when-will-trump-start-his-trade-war-tariffs-b9fdefad-4cd8-4cdf-b013-72c37e27500e.html

Trump wants to start a trade war to win the PA18 special.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 07, 2018, 10:24:55 am
This is shaping up to be a narrow Lamb victory. All three polls Gravis has released has shown Saccone consistently at 45-46%, but Lamb has been gaining. Undecideds are going to break for Conor Lamb.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: DemocraticKing on March 07, 2018, 10:37:36 am
Gravis January 3-5 - Saccone- 46% l Lamb- 34% l 20% Undecided

Gravis February 13-15 - Saccone- 45% l Lamb- 40% l 15% Undecided

Gravis March 1-5- Saccone- 45% l Lamb- 42% l 13% Undecided

We can see a clear trend here, Lamb has been taking the lion's share of the undecideds, and Saccone looks stuck at 45%. Another key note, none of these polls have included the Libertarian, who could pull away Saccone votes.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 07, 2018, 10:43:15 am
If these polls are correctly showing the direction in which undecideds are breaking, then Lamb should win narrowly.


Btw, 18-29 year olds is Lamb's strongest group. I have no reason to believe the "most conservative generation in history" bs


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: KingSweden on March 07, 2018, 10:55:49 am
A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up



Virginia you are truly a national treasure.

Anyways we have each candidate +3 each in a crappy poll. I’m comfortable calling this a pure Tossup. Lamb’s got the Big Mo though.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 07, 2018, 11:04:02 am
I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 07, 2018, 12:35:26 pm
I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.
Be sure to warn everyone of the rain in Pittsburgh.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Cactus Jack on March 07, 2018, 02:46:53 pm
I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 07, 2018, 02:47:59 pm
Wait, why is Limo phone banking in SW Pennsylvania?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 07, 2018, 02:48:27 pm
I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.

Do people understand what a joke is? For gods sake, I literally copied Virginia's post and added some colors and characters.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 07, 2018, 02:49:08 pm
Wait, why is Limo phone banking in SW Pennsylvania?

There's a hubdialer.com link to phonebank for Lamb that anyone can access.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 07, 2018, 02:51:14 pm
I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.

Do people understand what a joke is? For gods sake, I literally copied Virginia's post and added some colors and characters.
So you think you're special now?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 07, 2018, 02:51:55 pm
I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.

Do people understand what a joke is? For gods sake, I literally copied Virginia's post and added some colors and characters.
So you think you're special now?

What?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 07, 2018, 02:53:22 pm
Limo, there have been times when I seriously thought you were that Scott Presler guy.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 07, 2018, 02:55:07 pm
I got the joke.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Interlocutor on March 07, 2018, 04:17:45 pm

That's all I took from it


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on March 07, 2018, 08:05:44 pm
It sucks expectations have gotten so high that not winning an R+11 seat will obviously spark 'Dems r doomed' & 'GOP surge' stories much like GA-06. A few weeks ago I would've been elated if Lamb got within 10 now I'd be dissapointed/demoralized if he lost.
It's worse if Lamb wins, because then the news media will jump on it as proof that a D wave is coming, despite the fact that it's only one election.  Most of the elections that have happened since 2016 had too many extenuating circumstances to be seen as reliable indicators of what may happen in November.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on March 07, 2018, 09:03:51 pm
It sucks expectations have gotten so high that not winning an R+11 seat will obviously spark 'Dems r doomed' & 'GOP surge' stories much like GA-06. A few weeks ago I would've been elated if Lamb got within 10 now I'd be dissapointed/demoralized if he lost.
It's worse if Lamb wins, because then the news media will jump on it as proof that a D wave is coming, despite the fact that it's only one election.  Most of the elections that have happened since 2016 had too many extenuating circumstances to be seen as reliable indicators of what may happen in November.

lmoa


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 07, 2018, 09:53:09 pm
This politico article is yummy -> https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/republicans-pennsylvania-special-election-445221

Quote
Many Republicans expect that Saccone will ultimately prevail, thanks largely to the conservative nature of the southwestern Pennsylvania district and the national GOP’s effort. Yet three senior party strategists said they’d reviewed internal polling data in recent days pointing to a narrow Lamb lead, raising alarms. And this week, the Republican National Committee conducted a data analysis finding that just 47 percent of voters in the district viewed Saccone favorably, 3 percentage points lower than Trump.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Pericles on March 07, 2018, 09:54:03 pm
It sucks expectations have gotten so high that not winning an R+11 seat will obviously spark 'Dems r doomed' & 'GOP surge' stories much like GA-06. A few weeks ago I would've been elated if Lamb got within 10 now I'd be dissapointed/demoralized if he lost.
It's worse if Lamb wins, because then the news media will jump on it as proof that a D wave is coming, despite the fact that it's only one election.  Most of the elections that have happened since 2016 had too many extenuating circumstances to be seen as reliable indicators of what may happen in November.

Together though they are-judging by historical precedent-a reliable indicator of a blue wave.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 07, 2018, 10:33:38 pm
This politico article is yummy -> https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/republicans-pennsylvania-special-election-445221

Quote
Many Republicans expect that Saccone will ultimately prevail, thanks largely to the conservative nature of the southwestern Pennsylvania district and the national GOP’s effort. Yet three senior party strategists said they’d reviewed internal polling data in recent days pointing to a narrow Lamb lead, raising alarms. And this week, the Republican National Committee conducted a data analysis finding that just 47 percent of voters in the district viewed Saccone favorably, 3 percentage points lower than Trump.

Republicans have done this for almost every special election over the past 10 years. They are excellent at setting expectations.

Here is an amazing example of this brought forward by Ex Rep. David Jolly. (https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/971588561458909184)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on March 07, 2018, 10:54:33 pm
This politico article is yummy -> https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/republicans-pennsylvania-special-election-445221

Quote
Many Republicans expect that Saccone will ultimately prevail, thanks largely to the conservative nature of the southwestern Pennsylvania district and the national GOP’s effort. Yet three senior party strategists said they’d reviewed internal polling data in recent days pointing to a narrow Lamb lead, raising alarms. And this week, the Republican National Committee conducted a data analysis finding that just 47 percent of voters in the district viewed Saccone favorably, 3 percentage points lower than Trump.

Republicans have done this for almost every special election over the past 10 years. They are excellent at setting expectations.

Here is an amazing example of this brought forward by Ex Rep. David Jolly. (https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/971588561458909184)
the "many Republicans think Saccone will ultimately prevail" part makes it so only a Saccone 5%+ win or so would be an overperformnce


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 07, 2018, 11:21:48 pm
Exactly why I think Lamb is going to pull this off. The momentum is clearly on his side, and the GOP's scattered message in the ads suggests that the internals are showing things they don't like.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Badger on March 07, 2018, 11:48:01 pm
I phonebanked a little this morning. Was talking with this woman who supported Lamb when I saw the Gravis poll. Unfortunately, this race is now Safe R and I told the woman that she shouldn't bother voting. She had heard about the Democratic collapse in the Texas primary and thought the same.

So I see you've given up even attempting to troll.

Mods, please nuke.

Do people understand what a joke is? For gods sake, I literally copied Virginia's post and added some colors and characters.

If by that you mean you tried jumping on the bandwagon of her exquisitely funny post with some stale failed attempt at me-too humor, yeah, we know.

It just was dull.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 09, 2018, 09:37:31 am
Lamb 48
Saccone 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxaLwXNrd7apQzFqMkx6YjdIMU5GVUZ5QVkxMXpFb05RVjhN/view


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 09, 2018, 09:39:30 am
Lamb 48
Saccone 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxaLwXNrd7apQzFqMkx6YjdIMU5GVUZ5QVkxMXpFb05RVjhN/view

Holy sh*t...

Is this a real polling firm?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 09, 2018, 09:41:58 am
Lamb 48
Saccone 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxaLwXNrd7apQzFqMkx6YjdIMU5GVUZ5QVkxMXpFb05RVjhN/view

Holy sh*t...

Is this a real polling firm?


Yes, it's RABA Research.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on March 09, 2018, 09:44:56 am
I still think Saccone wins. I suppose the undecided are heavily conservative.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: kph14 on March 09, 2018, 09:45:11 am
Lamb 48
Saccone 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxaLwXNrd7apQzFqMkx6YjdIMU5GVUZ5QVkxMXpFb05RVjhN/view

Holy sh*t...

Is this a real polling firm?


Yes, it's RABA Research.

FWIW, 538 gives them a C+ rating


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: kph14 on March 09, 2018, 09:47:14 am
I still think Saccone wins. I suppose the undecided are heavily conservative.
It's all comes down to turnout. How likely are these unenthusiastic undecided voters to turn out in a special election? I think strong suburban turnout in Allegheny county will put Lamb over the top.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 09, 2018, 09:48:19 am
I still think Saccone wins. I suppose the undecided are heavily conservative.

The polls are showing Lamb getting the lion's share of undecideds.

No matter the grade, they are also consistently showing Lamb pulling ahead.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on March 09, 2018, 09:49:10 am
Well,
I mean I predicted Roy Moore winning as well. My predictions tend to take into account too much the partisan bias of the districts.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 09, 2018, 10:04:50 am
Anyways, I'm predicting Lamb +1.7

The wave of momentum is crashing alongside Conor.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 09, 2018, 10:07:09 am
Anyways, I'm predicting Lamb +1.7

The wave of momentum is crashing alongside Conor.

I think the tariffs and amazing economic news might slow that momentum.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 09, 2018, 10:08:04 am
Yeah, this poll is questionable:

Quote

Nate Cohn
Verified account
@Nate_Cohn

it's also 60% with a college degree lol

That being said the % with a college degree in PA-18 is higher than the national average, which is contrary to what folks would imagine with this district, and I imagine folks with a college degree are more like to turnout to vote in a special election.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 09, 2018, 10:09:24 am
Yeah, this poll is questionable:

Quote

Nate Cohn
Verified account
@Nate_Cohn

it's also 60% with a college degree lol

That being said the % with a college degree in PA-18 is higher than the national average, which it contrary to what folks would imagine with this district, and I imagine folks with a college degree are more like to turnout to vote in a special election.

That's what I'm thinking. Highly educated voters are already more likely to turn out by default.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: President Griffin on March 09, 2018, 10:30:02 am
College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 09, 2018, 10:31:27 am
College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers :). I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 09, 2018, 10:56:05 am
College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers :). I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 09, 2018, 11:02:05 am
College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers :). I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

Census says 37%, with it being a special election I could see that number get close to around 50%.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: swf541 on March 09, 2018, 11:07:22 am
College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers :). I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

+1, 100% agreed


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 09, 2018, 11:08:40 am
When is that Monmouth poll gonna drop?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 09, 2018, 11:14:48 am

I'm going to guess Monday.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: KingSweden on March 09, 2018, 11:56:06 am
RABA isn’t great but better than nothing


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 09, 2018, 12:46:25 pm
Educated voters? In PA-18? It's more likely than you think.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on March 09, 2018, 01:15:23 pm
Apparently along with unions; Conor is getting help from seniors who are breaking for him over fear of social security cuts


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 09, 2018, 01:20:19 pm
()

However:



Essentially becase Saccone can't raise any money on his own, Lamb is able to stay close because direct candidate spending gets better rates than outside groups.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 09, 2018, 03:57:34 pm
College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Uneducated whites were 44% of the electorate. Exit polls vastly overpoll college educated voters. Center for american progress has a good article about this. Nate Cohn too


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 09, 2018, 04:58:04 pm
Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=1lO976MN2ZI)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 09, 2018, 05:03:03 pm
Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=1lO976MN2ZI)

Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or lose, but winning this race will make the election in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 09, 2018, 05:03:42 pm
Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=1lO976MN2ZI)

Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or loses but winning this race will make the race in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.

Getting Doug Jones vibes all over again.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on March 09, 2018, 05:05:12 pm
Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=1lO976MN2ZI)

Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or loses but winning this race will make the race in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.
I mean,
I mean, the PA dem branch isn't particularly strong and there will be an open seat in 2022.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 09, 2018, 05:08:52 pm
Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=1lO976MN2ZI)

Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or loses but winning this race will make the race in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.
I mean,
I mean, the PA dem branch isn't particularly strong and there will be an open seat in 2022.

Conor is a very strong candidate, that's for damn sure, but what makes you think Toomey won't run for a third term in 2022?

Besides political views, he is quite literally the polar opposite of Katie McGinty.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 09, 2018, 05:11:16 pm
Conor Lamb is almost certainly the best candidate of the several that Democrats have run in federal special elections.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: NOVA Green on March 09, 2018, 05:27:06 pm
College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers :). I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

Census says 37%, with it being a special election I could see that number get close to around 50%.

Definitions of "College Educated" can get a bit murky, depending upon what standards one uses, but it does appear the CD-18 is more educated in terms of attainment than PA as a whole, with 44% of the population >25 having an advanced degree beyond a HS Diploma...

()

There are several things to consider here:

1.) Many Working Class / Blue Collar Occupations now require some type of vocational education (Nurses, Law Enforcement, Teachers, Electricians, etc....), so the 44% of College Educated population in this district seems reasonable, especially considering the relative size and composition of the Health Care sector within what is a CD that is older than the population of PA (18% 65+ and 41% 50+  within this district!!!!).

()

2.) This 44% does not include the "some College" category....

3.) As a followup to point # 2, educational attainment is one of those items where people frequently tend to fudge the data a bit when it comes to election polling, since many people consider themselves college educated if they have taken some various classes at community colleges/ online professional certifications, etc..., and certainly Voc-Ed for many working class folks that don't have a history of four year Diplomas in their family is one major way to move ahead into a better paying job, especially when you start rolling into your '30s with things like kids, mortages, etc....

4.) So regardless of how this particular poll used an LV/RV screening model for turnout in a Special Election, it would not be unreasonable to see 50% of voters in this district consider themselves College Educated...

5.) Who knows that turnout will look like in this election, but it would certainly be interesting once we have the precinct results, or if someone can run the Pres results from '16 by township against Educational Attainment (Maps too large for me to snip on my laptop) to see if there are any correlations.

https://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Pennsylvania/District-18/Educational-Attainment#data-map/county-subdivision

6.) Completely anecdotal and OT but I live in a Factory town in "downstate Oregon" and a Trump '16 County, which used to have a major United Steelworkers of America presence (USW), until the workers went out on strike against their employer trying to gut their medical plan. The employer shuttered the plant and shifted operations another plant they had in PA (Not sure offhand where) and interestingly enough I haven't heard much talk at all about Trump's Steel/Aluminum Tariff plan around here. Wildcard how and if this will play in PA-18 among those older locals that actually stuck around after the Steel Industry collapsed in SW PA in areas around McKeesport and the like.

I have absolutely no interest in attempting to skew/unskew any polls on this wildcard election, in what to me looks like it will be a jump ballgame that could easily go either way, just wanted to throw out some data on educational attainment, and yeah it looks like Nate Cohn might be barking up the wrong tree a bit on focusing on the educational attainment aspect of this poll....


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: NOVA Green on March 09, 2018, 06:00:34 pm
Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=1lO976MN2ZI)

Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or lose, but winning this race will make the election in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.

WOW!!!! 

Likely an ad with a powerful local impact, and additional portable/transferable to other WWC Blue Collar Trump districts throughout the US, since these types of statement expose the hypocrisy of many House 'Pubs when it comes to substance abuse issues, that disproportionately impacts working class Americans in both Democratic and Republican districts of all races, ethnic backgrounds and regions.

This is "Deer Hunter" Country....

For many of y'all not familiar with the reference it is about one of the first Movies about Vietnam starring Robert DeNiro set in Western PA (Clairton which if it isn't in CD-18 is right over the CD line) involving a close-knit group of young Steel Workers, and this part of PA has one of the highest % of Vietnam Vets of just about anywhere in the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Deer_Hunter

Heroin/Opium addiction first started to hit critical mass in the US as Vietnam Vets came home from the war, after having been exposed or used Opiates to numb themselves from the horrors of war and PTSD upon their return home from the war.

It is not coincidental that Opiate addiction in the US has ticked up dramatically in recent years in regions where there were historically some of the largest concentrations of Vietnam Vets.

To close up, here is a song that I own written by John Prine, but here performed by Johnny Cash that talks about Vietnam Vets and Heroin addiction, and I encourage any of y'all that like what you heard to spend the money to buy this song on whatever platform you currently use for music...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fc2j38Ab4&list=RDz-fc2j38Ab4

Absolutely no question in my mind that this ad will hit home, especially among the older voters in the district that have been hard hit by Opiate addictions over the past 50 years from 'Nam to the present day.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on March 09, 2018, 11:24:43 pm
Democrats have (for the most part) put up a fine lot of candidates in these special elections. Conor Lamb is no exception.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: History505 on March 10, 2018, 10:39:39 am
The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 10, 2018, 11:06:59 am
The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

Oh how fun lol.

I wonder when we're finally going to get a quality pollster for this race. Monmouth's poll is coming out soon, but where the hell has Fox News been?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 10, 2018, 11:15:32 am
The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

Oh how fun lol.

I wonder when we're finally going to get a quality pollster for this race. Monmouth's poll is coming out soon, but where the hell has Fox News been?

Does Fox News ever poll anything smaller than state-level races?  I don't think they polled the GA-6 special.  (The local Atlanta Fox station did, but that was using another firm.)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 11:56:16 am
The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

/triggered


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: henster on March 10, 2018, 12:09:13 pm
There seems to be a coordinated effort to massively lower expectation for Saccone to make a probable win as a victory for them in the media’s eyes. ‘Underdog Saccone wins hotly contested Congressional race’ that should have never been competitive.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 10, 2018, 12:14:29 pm
The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

/triggered

The needle was our savior in Alabama tho


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 12:46:45 pm
There seems to be a coordinated effort to massively lower expectation for Saccone to make a probable win as a victory for them in the media’s eyes. ‘Underdog Saccone wins hotly contested Congressional race’ that should have never been competitive.

This is a Republican speciality. They are the best at playing the media to manage exceptions.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 12:49:36 pm
The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

/triggered

The needle was our savior in Alabama tho

I'm going to need like 10 more Alabama's before I can feel comfortable again with the needle.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 01:08:22 pm
The needle gives me anxiety.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 10, 2018, 01:19:08 pm

That's not uncommon.  Lots of people have a fear of needles.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Lean Branson on March 10, 2018, 01:42:16 pm
There seems to be a coordinated effort to massively lower expectation for Saccone to make a probable win as a victory for them in the media’s eyes. ‘Underdog Saccone wins hotly contested Congressional race’ that should have never been competitive.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Badger on March 10, 2018, 01:45:02 pm
College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers :). I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

Word for the burg.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Badger on March 10, 2018, 01:53:58 pm

That's not uncommon.  Lots of people have a fear of needles.

Tip of the Fedora there, sir. Well played indeed.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: kyc0705 on March 10, 2018, 02:01:53 pm
The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Not_A_Man on March 10, 2018, 02:03:41 pm
The needle is back to stab everyone in the heart


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on March 10, 2018, 02:07:30 pm
The needle is back to stab everyone in the heart
What's the needle?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 10, 2018, 02:10:39 pm

Their live prediction forecast while returns are coming in.  See https://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president for an example.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Badger on March 10, 2018, 02:16:19 pm

Their live prediction forecast while returns are coming in.  See https://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president for an example.

Forget the needle oh, people. The real question is will Ben Kenobi be back with his specialized and insightful voting model that missed the results of the Alabama Race by only about 8 points even with 70% of the vote in.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 10, 2018, 02:31:02 pm

Their live prediction forecast while returns are coming in.  See https://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president for an example.

Forget the needle oh, people. The real question is will Ben Kenobi be back with his specialized and insightful voting model that missed the results of the Alabama Race by only about 8 points even with 70% of the vote in.

Don't we have Limo's mind model now?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Badger on March 10, 2018, 02:35:38 pm

Their live prediction forecast while returns are coming in.  See https://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president for an example.

Forget the needle oh, people. The real question is will Ben Kenobi be back with his specialized and insightful voting model that missed the results of the Alabama Race by only about 8 points even with 70% of the vote in.

Don't we have Limo's mind model now?

Some people with play with model trains, limos analysis is the equivalent of a model train wreck.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 02:50:15 pm
The needle did not betray us in VA-Gov and AL-Sen.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Georgia Is A Swing State on March 10, 2018, 03:00:34 pm
So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Cold War Liberal on March 10, 2018, 03:01:35 pm
I accidentally ingested some of Fox News's content earlier today at the gym. They said that there are 70,000 more Democrats in the district than Republicans, then said that the race was surprisingly close despite this. That makes it sound like Saccone is overperforming, not Lamb. They never mentioned that Trump won the district by double digits. Damn, they're good at spin, and I highly doubt their main viewers would bother to look of the CPI index of 2016 election results for PA-18.

The NYT is going to bring out the needle for this race. Can't wait.

()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Skill and Chance on March 10, 2018, 03:08:58 pm
The needle did not betray us in VA-Gov and AL-Sen.

Wasn't the problem in 2016 mostly about how hard some suburbs and small cities in Kentucky and Indiana swung to Clinton?  I remember it had Clinton up by 5ish nationwide when those were the only states reporting.  Obviously, that didn't replicate with similar sized counties elsewhere in the Midwest.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Joey1996 on March 10, 2018, 05:11:15 pm
How does Pelosi feel about Lamb?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Classic Conservative on March 10, 2018, 06:23:32 pm
Pittsburgh Post Gazette to endorse Saccone
https://mobile.twitter.com/colin_deppen/status/972607951495159808


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 10, 2018, 06:28:09 pm
Pittsburgh Post Gazette to endorse Saccone
https://mobile.twitter.com/colin_deppen/status/972607951495159808

For reference, they also pseudo-endorsed Trump in 2016: https://theincline.com/2016/11/07/pittsburgh-critics-blast-post-gazette-pseudo-trump-endorsement/


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 06:28:52 pm
Pittsburgh Post Gazette to endorse Saccone
https://mobile.twitter.com/colin_deppen/status/972607951495159808

For reference, they also pseudo-endorsed Trump in 2016: https://theincline.com/2016/11/07/pittsburgh-critics-blast-post-gazette-pseudo-trump-endorsement/

I was about to say that. Anyways, the bulk of the undecideds have probably already committed to Lamb.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 06:44:29 pm
As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen
Quote
Perhaps most notably, the editorial says Lamb winning could be the start of a "Democratic Wave" and adds, "The prospect of a Democratic House may please partisans, but it might be bad for the country."

As if the country is going anywhere under the Republicans.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 06:47:23 pm
As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen
Quote
Perhaps most notably, the editorial says Lamb winning could be the start of a "Democratic Wave" and adds, "The prospect of a Democratic House may please partisans, but it might be bad for the country."

As if the country is going nowhere under the Republicans.

Are they the same guys that posted that explicitly racist editorial?

I wouldn't be surprised.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: NOVA Green on March 10, 2018, 06:52:43 pm
So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?

I just started looking through some of the precinct data for the district, but I would imagine Lamb will have to perform extremely well in Allegheny County to offset Republican votes in heavily Republican parts of the district.

My ballpark math is that Allegheny County areas within CD-18 might have accounted for 35% of the district vote in 2016 and went 46-49 Trump.

The only really solidly Dem stronghold within the Allegheny portion of the district is Mount Lebanon Township (13% of the CD-18 vote within Allegheny) which went (61-34) HRC in 2016.

Scott Township (5% of Allegheny CD-18 vote 2016) is a Lean Dem place that went (52-44 HRC) in 2016...

Really the battles for a large win the Allegheny County portion of the district for Lamb will involve a double digit win in marginal Trump parts of Allegheny (Bethel Park, Moon, South Fayette, Upton St Clair, Whitehall, etc).

If Lamb is really polling within +/- a few points from the 'Pub he will also need to keep 'Pub margins down to 10-15% in Washington County, and although I haven't crunched the precinct numbers for the CD-18 portion of the County, overall the County was 35-60 Trump in '16, but 42-56 Romney in '12, and 47-52 Obama in '08....

Greene County will be interesting to see if a large number of Obama '08 voters come home to Lamb in '18.... County was virtually tied in '08, swung hard Romney in '12 (40-58 R), and in 2016       
(28-68 R) R.

Personally, I think Greene County will stick with any 'Pub (Even against local relatively popular Dem candidates) so long as Trump is President....

Not so sure on Westmoreland yet, since I haven't really had a chance to look closer at the County and which parts of the County fall within which CDs, etc....

Still, I believe the election will be won or lost for the Dem candidate based upon a combination of the raw vote margins out of the Allegheny portion of the district, combined with the extent of the swings in Washington County.

One item to note regarding these special elections, is that just as we observed in AL-SEN '17 election, is that the race was won as a result of a combination of:

1.) High levels of Dem turnout in their base areas
2.) Depressed Pub turnout in their base areas
3.) Cross-Over voters in Middle and Upper Middle-Class White precincts and municipalities in close proximity to the larger Metro areas of the State, as well as older retirees along the Gulf Coast

The wildcard here is to what if any extent is this election nationalized in terms of Tribal voting patterns, and *HOW* that might play out if this is the case....

Trump's policy announcement on Steel Tariffs might well be enough to push the 'Pub over the finish line and show skeptical former Steelworkers that he isn't afraid to buck the Neo-Liberal Republican economic agenda on Trade Policy, even as elsewhere in WWC America Trump's popularity is fading fast.

It is interesting to note that the two special elections where Trump got involved includes two of the major historical Steel Production centers of the United States (Birmingham Alabama and Pittsburgh PA).... in the case of the former, Trump's vote share collapsed even among the heavily White precincts of Bessemer Alabama (Major Steel working Town 25 Miles from Birmingham).

Anyways hope to be back and post some municipal level numbers based on precinct data before Tuesday's election to see what the tea leaves might tell us based upon historical data....


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 10, 2018, 06:56:23 pm
As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen
Quote
Perhaps most notably, the editorial says Lamb winning could be the start of a "Democratic Wave" and adds, "The prospect of a Democratic House may please partisans, but it might be bad for the country."

As if the country is going anywhere under the Republicans.

Dude nobody reads editorials


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 06:58:06 pm
As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen
Quote
Perhaps most notably, the editorial says Lamb winning could be the start of a "Democratic Wave" and adds, "The prospect of a Democratic House may please partisans, but it might be bad for the country."

As if the country is going anywhere under the Republicans.

Dude nobody reads editorials

Where did I indicate that anyone did?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 10, 2018, 06:59:03 pm
As if the PG couldn't be any more hackish...

@colin_deppen
Quote
Perhaps most notably, the editorial says Lamb winning could be the start of a "Democratic Wave" and adds, "The prospect of a Democratic House may please partisans, but it might be bad for the country."

As if the country is going anywhere under the Republicans.

Dude nobody reads editorials

Where did I indicate that anyone did?

Good point. Sorry


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Frenchy on March 10, 2018, 07:20:31 pm
Sadly Saccone is giving me Gianforte tease the more this race is covered nationally.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 07:24:03 pm
Trump is an awful surrogate. So far he's mentioned Chuck Todd and Lester Holt just as much as Rick Saccone.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: NOVA Green on March 10, 2018, 07:24:41 pm
Trump is currently speaking in Moon Township, Pennsylvania...

2016 Results:

5589 HRC   (42.7%)   6894 DJT   (52.7%)   8.1% of Allegheny County CD-18 2016 Pres Votes


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 07:28:07 pm
Trump is currently speaking in Moon Township, Pennsylvania...

2016 Results:

5589 HRC   (42.7%)   6894 DJT   (52.7%)   8.1% of Allegheny County CD-18 2016 Pres Votes


This is also where Lamb and Biden had their rally at Robert Morris University.

Also Trump is now attacking Oprah.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 07:31:49 pm
Oh, that guy is having a rally? Gross.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 07:39:33 pm
Trump now attacking Ronald Reagan on trade.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Going along with It on March 10, 2018, 07:42:00 pm
Trump just said he and Saccone looks better than Connor Lamb.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 10, 2018, 07:45:20 pm
Remember when Obama called Steve King a "very low IQ person"?
Fun times.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on March 10, 2018, 07:46:00 pm
Trump just said he and Saccone looks better than Connor Lamb.
LMFAO


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 07:53:04 pm
Wow, this rally has been worse than his past. This is not going to swing any voters.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:02:40 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 08:03:56 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

I have a feeling it could range anywhere from Lamb +2 to Lamb +5. Either way, I have good feeling about it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 10, 2018, 08:05:14 pm
Out of all the Trump rallies, this rally has one of the most inbred crowds I've ever seen


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 08:06:17 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 08:09:41 pm
Out of all the Trump rallies, this rally has one of the most inbred crowds I've ever seen

It's definitely been one of the nuttiest. I don't see how Saccone benefits from this. Undecideds will definitely be turned off.

I saw a tweet (I'll try and find it) from someone on the ground stating that people aren't really excited. They're just there for Trump. They don't care much for Saccone.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:10:34 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 10, 2018, 08:11:21 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll.

Can you uhh be a bit more specific?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:12:07 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll.

Can you uhh be a bit more specific?

Someone who works in data analytics.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 08:12:10 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll.

Can you uhh be a bit more specific?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 10, 2018, 08:17:05 pm
Out of all the Trump rallies, this rally has one of the most inbred crowds I've ever seen

It's definitely been one of the nuttiest. I don't see how Saccone benefits from this. Undecideds will definitely be turned off.

I saw a tweet (I'll try and find it) from someone on the ground stating that people aren't really excited. They're just there for Trump. They don't care much for Saccone.

I've been saying on here for awhile Trumpism only works for Trump. He doesn't help anyone else get elected.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Bagel23 on March 10, 2018, 08:17:13 pm
I'm scared of needles, I resisted an IV at a hospital for 4 hours a couple years back. It was some nurse and a smaller doctor that tried to both get it in me and talk me into it forever, I managed to cause enough ruckus to hold them off for a while, then they said I was gonna die if I did not get the anti biotics from the iv, so I relented. Pretty sure they would have strapped me down with a crew if I did not relent eventually tho, since my parents told them they could. My only other request was that they significantly reduce the morphine dosage just in case, you know, man even at the young age of 14 I knew to stay away from that sh!t as much as possible.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 08:18:39 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s :p


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 10, 2018, 08:20:17 pm
What is the poll that "this guy" knows of? Is it Connor Lamb + 6?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:20:29 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s :p

It's this same guy:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279249.msg5952465#msg5952465

It ended up being the Fox News poll.

So it's actually more on him.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 08:22:31 pm
Out of all the Trump rallies, this rally has one of the most inbred crowds I've ever seen

It's definitely been one of the nuttiest. I don't see how Saccone benefits from this. Undecideds will definitely be turned off.

I saw a tweet (I'll try and find it) from someone on the ground stating that people aren't really excited. They're just there for Trump. They don't care much for Saccone.

I've been saying on here for awhile Trumpism only works for Trump. He doesn't help anyone else get elected.

There's a rumor that Trump wants Saccone to lose so that he can make him an ambassador. Maybe to North Korea or something.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 08:24:48 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s :p

It's this same guy:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279249.msg5952465#msg5952465

It ended up being the Fox News poll.

So it's actually more on him.

Awesome!

Also Trump is doing a great job setting expectations:

Quote
Maggie Haberman
‏Verified account
@maggieNYT

"I hate to put this pressure on you, they're all watching," Trump says to Saccone.

Quote
Stuart Rothenberg
‏@StuPolitics

"This guys should win easily."


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Bagel23 on March 10, 2018, 08:29:08 pm
You. Can't. Make. This. Stuff. Up.

()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Lean Branson on March 10, 2018, 08:29:48 pm
Quote
Stuart Rothenberg
‏@StuPolitics

"This guys should win easily."

I guess he doesn't get that his party is trying to play the expectations game?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 08:30:52 pm

Wow, this rally is a sh*tshow. Congrats Congressman Lamb.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 10, 2018, 08:31:52 pm
Handsome... -barfs-


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Ses on March 10, 2018, 08:35:29 pm
Wait, his name is pronounced "Suh-CONE"? I always thought it was "SAH-co-nay".


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 10, 2018, 08:39:08 pm
Wait, his name is pronounced "Suh-CONE"? I always thought it was "SAH-co-nay".

Sack-cone here :/


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 10, 2018, 09:03:28 pm
For posterity's sake, I decided to break down the counties for the district in DRA. Under the "current" coalition system, we see that Allegheny is far to the left of the District as a whole, and the Westmoreland and Greene bits are far to the right. Washington is just a little right of the district as a whole. Allegheny is about 20k pop over the Westmoreland+Greene total pop, so they roughly balance out. Under the older number though, the areas south of Allegheny have more affinity for the democrats, and the south Allegheny suburbs comparatively less.

()

Something to note is that under the 2011 Gerrymander, the Pubs carved out the more 'ancestral' democratic communities along the river borders in the south and stuck them in PA-09, (in exchange for more of Westmoreland) a move that was done out of fear that this region still could vote blue. We will see on Tuesday if these lines succeeded or failed in their attempt to lock out Democrats.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Georgia Is A Swing State on March 10, 2018, 09:08:52 pm
So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?
[snip]
Awesome info. Thanks! :)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Pollster on March 10, 2018, 09:14:32 pm
I tuned in late and might have missed it, but did Trump not mention the new tariffs? That was supposed to be his Hail Mary to Saccone.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 10, 2018, 09:16:09 pm
Trump owned



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Smash255 on March 10, 2018, 09:20:10 pm
So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?

I just started looking through some of the precinct data for the district, but I would imagine Lamb will have to perform extremely well in Allegheny County to offset Republican votes in heavily Republican parts of the district.

My ballpark math is that Allegheny County areas within CD-18 might have accounted for 35% of the district vote in 2016 and went 46-49 Trump.



The Allegheny portion was just under 43% of the 2016 Presidential vote in the district


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Bagel23 on March 10, 2018, 09:32:29 pm
Good on Lamb for his rally tomorrow, very good move!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 09:36:30 pm
Lamb is more intelligent than both Saccone and Trump. The rally was a good call.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 10, 2018, 09:46:18 pm
You guys are starting to persuade me that Lamb may actually win this.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 09:47:41 pm
You guys are starting to persuade me that Lamb may actually win this.

He has all the momentum, and the GOP going into panic mode leads me to believe that the internals look good for Conor. If the polls are correct, and Conor truly is getting the lion share of the undecided votes, then I think he's going to win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 10, 2018, 09:49:59 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s :p

It's this same guy:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279249.msg5952465#msg5952465

It ended up being the Fox News poll.

So it's actually more on him.

I am praying that you are right. If it's Lamb +4, then I think he's going to win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 09:58:03 pm
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s :p

It's this same guy:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279249.msg5952465#msg5952465

It ended up being the Fox News poll.

So it's actually more on him.

I am praying that you are right. If it's Lamb +4, then I think he's going to win.

:)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: NOVA Green on March 11, 2018, 01:11:12 am
So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?

I just started looking through some of the precinct data for the district, but I would imagine Lamb will have to perform extremely well in Allegheny County to offset Republican votes in heavily Republican parts of the district.

My ballpark math is that Allegheny County areas within CD-18 might have accounted for 35% of the district vote in 2016 and went 46-49 Trump.



The Allegheny portion was just under 43% of the 2016 Presidential vote in the district

Thanks Smash255!!!!

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to pull together a comprehensive precinct data set for this district yet, but so was a bit conservative on my estimated numbers for Allegheny County '16 Pres numbers as a % of the total CD vote....



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: KingSweden on March 11, 2018, 10:26:35 am
You guys are starting to persuade me that Lamb may actually win this.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 11, 2018, 10:53:22 am
Trump should've done his rally in Greene or Washington. That's where Saccone needs to run up the margins.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Cold War Liberal on March 11, 2018, 11:42:04 am
You. Can't. Make. This. Stuff. Up.

()

Mike Pence was at the Naval Observatory, feeding Marlon Bundo while waiting for Mother to make him dinner, when he broke out in a profuse cold sweat. He couldn't pinpoint why until he turned on the TV and saw that headline in the lower third.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on March 11, 2018, 01:22:45 pm
This *may* be the end for Lamb...ugh: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/11/pittsburgh-paper-backs-republican-in-house-race-warning-of-impeachment-distraction-if-democrats-win/


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 11, 2018, 01:32:51 pm
This *may* be the end for Lamb...ugh: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/11/pittsburgh-paper-backs-republican-in-house-race-warning-of-impeachment-distraction-if-democrats-win/

Check out the end of page 34/beginning of 35 for discussion on this paper, if/when lamb loses, it won't be because of this. Apparently, this was one of the papers that was bullish for Trump.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Xing on March 11, 2018, 01:33:27 pm
This *may* be the end for Lamb...ugh: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/11/pittsburgh-paper-backs-republican-in-house-race-warning-of-impeachment-distraction-if-democrats-win/

You mean like how newspaper endorsements were the end for Trump?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mr.Phips on March 11, 2018, 01:37:53 pm
This *may* be the end for Lamb...ugh: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/11/pittsburgh-paper-backs-republican-in-house-race-warning-of-impeachment-distraction-if-democrats-win/

Hmm, I wonder if this paper endorsed Dem control of House in 1994, 1998, 2010, and 2014 out of fear of impeachment of a Dem President.  Somehow I doubt it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Ebsy on March 11, 2018, 01:47:28 pm
The Post Gazette is notoriously right wing and downright deranged when it comes to unions.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Badger on March 11, 2018, 01:52:16 pm
This *may* be the end for Lamb...ugh: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/11/pittsburgh-paper-backs-republican-in-house-race-warning-of-impeachment-distraction-if-democrats-win/

Hmm, I wonder if this paper endorsed Dem control of House in 1994, 1998, 2010, and 2014 out of fear of impeachment of a Dem President.  Somehow I doubt it.

Definitely not. This paper was a liberal, though high quality, newspaper since time immemorial. It was only since it was bought out by some right-wing Publishing House in the past couple years that it's turned into a complete rag.

 I can appreciate a good conservative op-ed from legit sources like the Wall Street Journal, but it is really depressing to see the Post-Gazette turn into such a rag.

It might change a few Minds on the margins, but I question the extent. Maybe locals like doctor cynic can tell us whether or not the Post-Gazette truly has much respect left in the region, or if that since then management switch over if it's now widely considered the paper version of Fox News that simply preaches to the converted on their op-ed page.



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 11, 2018, 01:52:37 pm
This *may* be the end for Lamb...ugh: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/11/pittsburgh-paper-backs-republican-in-house-race-warning-of-impeachment-distraction-if-democrats-win/

This newspaper endorsement will shift the race approximately 0.02% to Rick Saccone. Nobody hears about newspaper endorsements, and even less people care.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 11, 2018, 02:32:58 pm


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 11, 2018, 03:35:17 pm
There is a new poll going around from KG Polling that shows Lamb up 49-45.  However, G. Elliott Morris says this is a fake poll, put out by the same people behind BRD Research, apparently in an attempt to influence betting markets.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: DemocraticKing on March 11, 2018, 03:35:25 pm
This *may* be the end for Lamb...ugh: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/11/pittsburgh-paper-backs-republican-in-house-race-warning-of-impeachment-distraction-if-democrats-win/

This newspaper endorsement will shift the race approximately 0.02% to Rick Saccone. Nobody hears about newspaper endorsements, and even less people care.

Not to mention, the local paper for Greene County and those other ancestrally Dem counties actually endorsed Lamb.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Bagel23 on March 11, 2018, 03:59:45 pm
UMWA and steelworkers in that room is great!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: THE BuckeyeNut on March 11, 2018, 04:09:10 pm
Lamb by 3.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 11, 2018, 04:21:10 pm
Nobody reads the PG.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 11, 2018, 04:23:01 pm
Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Bagel23 on March 11, 2018, 04:30:34 pm
Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Though I would argue that a Lamb win would make it significantly harder for Republicans to argue against the odds of a Democratic takeover.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 11, 2018, 04:32:25 pm
Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Hotter than the heart of a supernova.



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Skill and Chance on March 11, 2018, 04:42:48 pm
Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Though I would argue that a Lamb win would make it significantly harder for Republicans to argue against the odds of a Democratic takeover.

This is an exceptional area, having such a Democratic heritage that it was both +20 Mondale in 1984 and +40 Trump in 2016.  A Lamb win would boost candidates like Ojeda and the Dems running in the Obama-Trump Upstate NY districts significantly, but it says next to nothing about e.g. the Romney-Clinton CDs. 

That having been said, if they are winning back this kind of seat, there is an all Midwest/Rust Belt path to a Dem House majority out there. 


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 11, 2018, 04:50:04 pm
Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Though I would argue that a Lamb win would make it significantly harder for Republicans to argue against the odds of a Democratic takeover.

This is an exceptional area, having such a Democratic heritage that it was both +20 Mondale in 1984 and +40 Trump in 2016.  A Lamb win would boost candidates like Ojeda and the Dems running in the Obama-Trump Upstate NY districts significantly, but it says next to nothing about e.g. the Romney-Clinton CDs.  

That having been said, if they are winning back this kind of seat, there is an all Midwest/Rust Belt path to a Dem House majority out there.  

shrug* If lamb wins, it will be because the highly educated suburbs in Allegheny pulled him over the top, not the southern areas returning to the fold. Which largely lines up with what we are seeing in federal special and regular elections - a dem over-performance everywhere but more tied to suburbs/urban zones and education levels.


Also, the main reason for my post, Cohn's got a nice map with data:

()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 11, 2018, 04:52:36 pm
Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Though I would argue that a Lamb win would make it significantly harder for Republicans to argue against the odds of a Democratic takeover.

This is an exceptional area, having such a Democratic heritage that it was both +20 Mondale in 1984 and +40 Trump in 2016.  A Lamb win would boost candidates like Ojeda and the Dems running in the Obama-Trump Upstate NY districts significantly, but it says next to nothing about e.g. the Romney-Clinton CDs.  

That having been said, if they are winning back this kind of seat, there is an all Midwest/Rust Belt path to a Dem House majority out there.  

shrug* If lamb wins, it will be because the highly educated suburbs in Allegheny pulled him over the top, not the southern areas returning to the fold. Which largely lines up with what we are seeing in federal special and regular elections - a dem over-performance everywhere but more tied to suburbs/urban zones and education levels.


Also, the main reason for my post, Cohn's got a nice map with data:

()

But both the educated and uneducated areas are swinging. Which means it'd be a good result for both Clinton-Republican districts and Obama-Trump districts.

Anyways my point about the whole "this doesn't prove dems are winning house thing" is just that it's 1 data point. 1 good data point of out like.... 50 different good data points we have for dems.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 11, 2018, 05:07:17 pm
I'm just also going to note that the south of this district isn't even Obama-trump territory...its more like Gore-Kerryish-Tepid McCain-Romney-Hard Trump. Like its hard to remember but this PA-12 in 2000 was drawn as a Dem pack to make that years PA-18 safe-R, but by 2010 is was a Tossup seat won by McCain. Even though these counties maintain a strong dem registration advantage, they have been moving right for quite some time.

()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Bagel23 on March 11, 2018, 05:12:07 pm
What benchmarks are yall looking for Lamb to squeeze out a victory?

I am thinking:

Allegheny: Lamb needs to get just shy of 60% here
Westmoreland: I would say 44% would be a good minimum, could get away with a bit lower though.
Washington: Around 46% would be good, preferred a little higher
Greene: Around 43-44% ought to do the trick.

What do yall think?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 11, 2018, 05:15:59 pm
What benchmarks are yall looking for Lamb to squeeze out a victory?

I am thinking:

Allegheny: Lamb needs to get just shy of 60% here
Westmoreland: I would say 44% would be a good minimum, could get away with a bit lower though.
Washington: Around 46% would be good, preferred a little higher
Greene: Around 43-44% ought to do the trick.

What do yall think?

Probably less in Westmoreland, the county barely plurality D by the registration count in contrast to the rest of the region. Probably more Washington, the county is 2 points to the right of the district as a whole, and has a small mix of olds school dems and highly educated voters


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 11, 2018, 05:17:20 pm
I feel like all of the union endorsements Lamb is getting is the key to victory. It's the key to reawakening the sleeping Democrat.


Btw, I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about that Monmouth poll.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on March 11, 2018, 05:19:37 pm
I feel like all of the union endorsements Lamb is getting is the key to victory. It's the key to reawakening the sleeping Democrat.


Btw, I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about that Monmouth poll.
How will that endorsement from the Pittsburgh paper affect things?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 11, 2018, 05:33:04 pm
I feel like all of the union endorsements Lamb is getting is the key to victory. It's the key to reawakening the sleeping Democrat.


Btw, I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about that Monmouth poll.
How will that endorsement from the Pittsburgh paper affect things?

No affect. People have pretty much made up their mind. Plus we have seen the lions share of undecideds going for Conor. I fail to see how a paper's endorsement would completely reverse that.

I also strongly believe that the union endorsements are far more powerful.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 11, 2018, 05:33:59 pm
Note: In preparation for the Monmouth poll being released tomorrow, last month's had Saccone up 3 points. So I have a strong feeling it will have Lamb up.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 11, 2018, 05:52:02 pm
Trump and Republicans may be expecting a Lamb victory...

https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html (https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Speaker YE on March 11, 2018, 05:58:39 pm
Trump and Republicans may be expecting a Lamb victory...

https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html (https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html)

There trying to set the bar low and play the expectations game.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: KingSweden on March 11, 2018, 06:14:41 pm
Trump and Republicans may be expecting a Lamb victory...

https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html (https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html)

Lol. Low Energy Rick


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 11, 2018, 07:10:31 pm
This is a bigger deal than the PG: Lamb won the endorsement of the "Observer-Reporter" which is the largest newspaper in two of the counties (Greene and Washington) I believe those two will be Saccone's best counties so this is excellent for Conor!

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html (https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 11, 2018, 07:13:03 pm
A reader poll is on the front page of the Observer's website that asks the people who they will vote for.

Conor Lamb: 48%
Rick Saccone: 40%

It's a reader poll and you just click so it carries very little weight.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on March 11, 2018, 07:16:32 pm
Trump and Republicans may be expecting a Lamb victory...

https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html (https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html)

I can't wait to see the Orange Clown eat sh**t over this. How can he blame anyone but himself here? Sacconne has been such a disgraceful Trump sycophant and has completely embraced Trumpism. Trump said Gillespie lost because he did not embrace Trumpism. I look forward to the Orange Clown's Twitter meltdown on Tuesday night.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 11, 2018, 07:16:48 pm
That reader poll just got a 65+ eskimo voter that voted for Connor Lamb


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on March 11, 2018, 07:17:47 pm
This is a bigger deal than the PG: Lamb won the endorsement of the "Observer-Reporter" which is the largest newspaper in two of the counties (Greene and Washington) I believe those two will be Saccone's best counties so this is excellent for Conor!

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html (https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html)
In reality, either candidate would probably be able and competent when it comes to representing the 18th Congressional District.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 11, 2018, 07:21:48 pm

Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on March 11, 2018, 07:34:06 pm

Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on March 11, 2018, 07:36:31 pm
We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 11, 2018, 07:39:09 pm

Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?

I'm also sure there is something against holding multiple offices at the same time, despite the fact that this has been push several time (Huey Long anyone?). I know in distant past young democracies often saw national figures elected to multiple constituencies, like Lamartine in 1848 France, though they mostly only choose 1 to represent.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 11, 2018, 07:39:47 pm
We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.

Wouldn't bad weather tend to help the candidate with the more enthusiastic supporters, which from reports so far seems more likely to be Lamb?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 11, 2018, 07:41:06 pm
We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.

Pretty much 0 early vote, so everyone depends on same day voting. Which in turn depends really about who has the better ground game.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 11, 2018, 07:43:40 pm
We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.

The candidate with the more enthusiastic base (Lamb) probably won't have a problem.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on March 11, 2018, 07:46:16 pm
We're supposedly due for snow here in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Any idea how, if it all, it could affect the election? To me it sounds like it would favor Saccone.

Wouldn't bad weather tend to help the candidate with the more enthusiastic supporters, which from reports so far seems more likely to be Lamb?
Yes. Bad weather favors the underdog.

Whoever is the underdog is anybody’s guess.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 11, 2018, 07:47:37 pm

Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?

Ah, good point.  Without such laws it would be an interesting idea.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 11, 2018, 07:52:09 pm

Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?

Ah, good point.  Without such laws it would be an interesting idea.

I meant that I endorse him for his current PA18 run and that I endorse him for his eventual PA17 run.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 11, 2018, 07:57:14 pm

Seeing that in your signature made me wonder: what if the same person could represent more than one district at the same time?  Indeed, is there any reason this wouldn't be legal already?  A representative doesn't have to reside within their district.  So in theory, an extremely popular figure might run for two (or more!) districts in the same vicinity in the same election, win more than one, and have more than one vote in the House, one for each district represented.

Don't most states prohibit being on the ballot for multiple offices, unless one of them is President or Vice President?

Ah, good point.  Without such laws it would be an interesting idea.

I meant that I endorse him for his current PA18 run and that I endorse him for his eventual PA17 run.

I got that.  It was just seeing it written that way that sent me off into a flight of fancy. :)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Badger on March 11, 2018, 08:06:27 pm
This is a bigger deal than the PG: Lamb won the endorsement of the "Observer-Reporter" which is the largest newspaper in two of the counties (Greene and Washington) I believe those two will be Saccone's best counties so this is excellent for Conor!

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html (https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-th-district-election-lamb-is-the-best-choice/article_e3246e5e-2080-11e8-abc5-c31a5a33de84.html)
In reality, either candidate would probably be able and competent when it comes to representing the 18th Congressional District.

I'm not sure that could be set of Saccone considering how far right and lazy of a candidate has been. Though admittedly if he got in he be Congressman for life for the new Westmoreland base District


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: NOVA Green on March 11, 2018, 08:20:33 pm
So I decided to spend a little bit of time looking at precinct level data for the Allegheny County portion of the district to see what if anything it might tell us about the upcoming Special Election....

For starters, here is overall how the CD-18 section of the County voted in US PRES elections between 2008 and 2016.

Thanks to Oryxslayer for posting the data from '08 a few pages back!!!

()

So apologies for restating the obvious to many of us, but the historically Democratic Parts of the district are not actually located within Allegheny County, which has actually been gradually shifting slightly towards the Democratic Party over the past decade, even as Washington and Greene Counties have been swinging hard Republican.

Where are the voters located within South Allegheny CD-18?

Because there are so many municipal jurisdictions in this heavily suburban/exurban area, and diffuse concentration of voters, I had to consolidate places with less than 3% into the "Other" category, but at least include over 80% of the voters into discrete subcategories....

()

So in order of voting population:

1.) Mt Lebanon--- 12.7%
2.) Bethel Park- 12.0%
3.) Moon-  8.1%
4.) Upper St Clair--- 7.6%
5.) Scott--- 5.4%
6.) S. Fayette- 5.1%
7.) Whitehall--- 4.9%
8.) South Park-- 4.6%
9.) Elizabeth Twp--- 4.4%
10.) N. Fayette--- 4.2%
11.) Robinson--- 4.2%
12.) Jefferson HL--- 3.9%
13.) Pleasant HL--- 3.0%
14.) Collier--- 3.0%

We'll be getting back to some of these places in more detail shortly....

How did these places vote in the 2016 Presidential Election?

()

Now let's take a look at these same places in the 2012 Presidential Election....

()

NOW---- Where and what were the swings within South Allegheny (CD-18) between 2012 and 2016???

()

So, interestingly enough pretty much almost all of the larger population centers within the County swung against Donald Trump with roughly 20% swings in Mt Lebanon and Upton St Clair....

Now, as we have seen before even in areas that swung +20% Dem between '12 and '16, there is still further room for collapse, meaning that considering Trump's decreased approval ratings over the past year, it is entirely plausible that we could see even more significant swings towards a local Centrist Dem candidate in some of these suburban/exurban South Allegheny political jurisdictions....

Ok--- time to dig a bit further into the weeds of South Allegheny CD-18  and check out some of the Social Demographics for various communities within the district....

1.) Mount Lebanon Township---- Pop 33k--- MHI $ 76.0k/Yr--- 91% White--- 68% Degree > HS---
 2016 Pres (61-34 D)


Occupation sectors heavily concentrated in Professional and Management....

()

Needless to say, we will likely see extremely high turnout here on Tuesday, as well as likely increased swings beyond the 2016 (61-34 D) numbers from the 2012 (53-46 D) numbers.

2.) Bethel Park--- Pop 32.3k--- MHI $ 69.3k/Yr--- 95% White--- 53% Degree > HS    2016 (43-52 R)


()

This is obviously a must win and must win by +10% City for Lamb, since if recent polls of the CD are to believed Trump is sitting at only about 50% Fav ratings (+3-4%), it's places like this where his support likely slumped more so than in other areas....

3.) Moon Township--- Pop 24.6k--- MHI $ 67.2k/Yr--- 89% White--- 53% Degree > HS, 2016---
 (43-53 R)


Occupations...

()

So despite the household income and educational attainment similar to Bethel Park, is a bit more Blue Collar/ Pink Collar, with a much smaller percentage of workers concentrated in the "Knowledge and Professional sectors"

Similar to Bethel Park, this is a place where Lamb needs to win by at least high single digits

4.) Upper St Clair Township--- Pop 19.3k--- MHI $ 106.3k/Yr--- 90% White--- 74% Degree > HS--- 2016 (46-50 R)

This was only one of two places in South Allegheny (CD-18) that swung 20% towards HRC between '12 and '16, although it was still a (46-49 R) jurisdiction in 2016....

Occupations....

()

Needless to say there is a disproportionate amount of Upper Middle Class voters here in what appears to be more a "Country Club Republican" part of the County....

We'll see how this area votes after Tuesday, but if the results we have seen from NoVa to Alabama in similar districts in Special Elections recreate themselves in the "Rust Belt", I wouldn't be surprised to see this Township flip hard against Trump....

5. Scott Township--- Pop 17.0k--- MHI $ 61.4k/ Yr--- 82% White, 11% Asian--- 53% Degree > HS.... 2016 (52-44 D)

Occupations:

()

So this one is a bit interesting, in that although it didn't have the dramatic swings towards HRC that Mt Lebanon and Upper St Clair did, but yet it is fairly highly educated with a relatively large Asian-American population, and yet moderately low MHI numbers, and one of the only Obama 2012 places within Allegheny CD-18....

Not sure how much swing is left in the '17 Special election, but would imagine a 60-40 Lamb margin would be my target numbers here....

6.) South Fayette Township--- Pop 14.7k--- MHI $ 78.9k--- 90% White/ 7% Asian--- 54% > HS Degree... 2016 (44-52 R)

Occupations....

()

Ok.... suspect I'm starting to run out of space on the character count for a post, but I think we're starting to get the picture that a good chunk of the voting population of the County are actually Suburban/Exurban Pittsburgh voters, like some of our well known local experts on SW PA have been stating....

So which parts of South Allegheny (CD-18) swung towards Trump compared to 2012?

1.) Elizabeth Township (+11 'Pub swing '12 to '16)--- Pop 13.3k--- MHI $ 59.7k--- 98% White--- 36% Degree > HS

Now this is a pretty old district in terms of age compared to the Allegheny CD section of the County, right over the border from Westmoreland County, and a bit removed from Metro Pittsburgh, so in some ways I would suspect the demographics more closely resemble parts of Greene and Washington County, than most of Southern Allegheny....

2.) We saw a few other marginal swings towards Trump compared to Romney '12 'Pub percentages in Jefferson Hills Township, North Fayette, and South Park Township, but interestingly enough there was only a 1% increase on the 'Pub voting percentage between '12 and '16 in these three places, meaning that although there were swings, it was mainly as a result of defections towards 3rd Party Candidates.


To finish: I don't know what if anything all of this means in the context of an extremely unusual special election in a district Trump won by + 20%.

What I do know is that the trends in the South Allegheny County portion of the district are not at all favorable towards Trump, and considering that 43% of the CD-18 vote is cast here will likely be the make or break moment for Lamb....

Like Pittsburgh Steel and some other knowledgeable posters have been saying this district isn't nearly as "rural" as is being present by the MSM on all Media outlets....

I almost spat out my coffee this morning listening to a media pundit talking talking about how the "Democratic suburbs of Pittsburgh" might flip this district....

Still, in order for Lamb to win this district it will require both a significant swing towards the Dem in South Allegheny (That is increasingly shifting Dem in the "Age of Trump"), combined with recovering enough Ancestral Dem voters in Washington and Greene Counties that as recently as 2008 were only narrowly won by McCain by the sliver of a hair off of my neckbeard.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Badger on March 11, 2018, 08:35:03 pm
Awesome post Nova, but I was disappointed you wouldn't continue it for all the other non other jurisdictions in Allegheny County. Totally unreasonable of me, but there you go. Also had to LOL at the admission to having a neckbeard.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: NOVA Green on March 11, 2018, 08:54:58 pm
So slightly OT, but still tangential considering that after all this is a part of the US that is at the Heart of Steel Industry, people seem to forget that ever since FDR passed away, even in the core of heavy industrial Union Country, there is still a collective memory about the crackdown on organized labor after WW II when workers walked out in massive strikes including the Coal Mines, Steel Industry, Shipyards, etc.... since as part of no pay raises to support the war effort against the Nazis/Fascists/Japanese Colonialists our Grandparents were expecting the promise to be delivered that FDR had promised.

Harry Truman right off the bat took aim at the Coal Miners and Steel Workers, and even did the old "Boss thing" from the 1910s and 1920s and sent National Guard troops into the Mines and Mills...]

Thing about Steel and Coal Country is that there are a lot of ancestral roots, and unfortunately even most Democratic Presidents over the past 70 years haven't really shown that they are on the side of Labor....

Anyways.... Harry Truman nationalized the Steel Industry right before a General Strike in the early '50s during the Korean War, and eventually after a few brief months ended up folding to the Steelworkers demands.

Union tradition runs deep in many Ancestral Dem Heavy Industrial areas, but at the same time is it any wonder that even at the peak of the Labor Movement within these districts, there has long been a deep distrust of Democratic Presidential Candidates?

So to close it out, here is a brief news clip from the UK about the US Still Strike of '51/'52

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itFlzpQusRg


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: NOVA Green on March 11, 2018, 09:24:30 pm
Awesome post Nova, but I was disappointed you wouldn't continue it for all the other non other jurisdictions in Allegheny County. Totally unreasonable of me, but there you go. Also had to LOL at the admission to having a neckbeard.

1.) I do have some PDF numbers for Washington and Greene Counties, but unfortunately my regular source for easily exportable precinct level results doesn't include these two counties, nor Westmoreland as well....

2.) If I had started the project earlier, I might have been able to pull together some numbers for the other Counties in the CD, but without an OCR reader to convert PDF data to easily import/export into Excel, I would be spending additional hours of my time on this project.... :(

3.) Yes---- I am currently in possession of fabulous neckbeard as a result of an occupational shift from Management to now working a job on the Factory Floor, where I can grow out my beard and wear my heavy metal T-Shirts and Jeans with zero worries about how my image might impact the customer perceptions of business services that we provide running the Factory Floor so long as we maintain "Outs" and "Yields"...   ;)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 11, 2018, 11:35:06 pm
These numbers seem attainable



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 11, 2018, 11:37:27 pm
If Eugene DePasquale can almost win it, then Lamb can win.



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on March 12, 2018, 01:25:03 am
Will CNN and other networks be covering this race like they did for the VA and NJ gubernatorial races?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Brittain33 on March 12, 2018, 07:20:36 am
Politico article: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/12/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone-454728

Here's a polling tidbit:
Quote
Yet there’s evidence the Republican offensive might be having some effect. A data analysis completed by the RNC during the middle of last week showed Lamb leading just 48 percent to 47 percent, according to two people briefed on the numbers. The Democrat’s advantage had shrunk from four percentage points in the committee’s previous analysis of the race days earlier.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Justice Blair on March 12, 2018, 07:38:37 am
It's the first bit of positive news I've seen the republicans try and spin, rather than just thrashing their candidate



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Brittain33 on March 12, 2018, 08:06:47 am
Because we have a lot of stickied threads, I'm thinking that on Tuesday I unsticky this one and conversation will migrate to the Congressional Results thread, where eventually it will peter out. What do people think?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 12, 2018, 08:11:43 am
Because we have a lot of stickied threads, I'm thinking that on Tuesday I unsticky this one and conversation will migrate to the Congressional Results thread, where eventually it will peter out. What do people think?

You mean after Tuesday, right?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 12, 2018, 09:05:41 am
Because we have a lot of stickied threads, I'm thinking that on Tuesday I unsticky this one and conversation will migrate to the Congressional Results thread, where eventually it will peter out. What do people think?

I figured the general primary thread would replace this ones sticky spot after 3/13.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Brittain33 on March 12, 2018, 09:29:40 am
Sounds like this should stay stickied through Wednesday.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Justice Blair on March 12, 2018, 09:51:08 am
Does anyone have any info on what the unions in the District have been doing in the election/the importance of the the various unions?

I saw that Lamb did a big event yesterday with the President of the Miners Union, and seems to be banking on their support. The Trump era has really seem to brought them back into prominence (after the Democrats ran away from them during the Bush years)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 09:56:31 am
I don't know why, but I am extremely anxious for this Monmouth poll...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 12, 2018, 10:17:30 am
I don't know why, but I am extremely anxious for this Monmouth poll...

Do we know when it will be released?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: superbudgie1582 on March 12, 2018, 10:19:59 am
I don't know why, but I am extremely anxious for this Monmouth poll...

Do we know when it will be released?

Last week they released they're Trump approval poll on CNN at 1pm.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Jeppe on March 12, 2018, 10:24:14 am
What time do the polls close tomorrow?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 12, 2018, 10:25:12 am
What time do the polls close tomorrow?

Polls are open from 7 am to 8 pm EST.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 10:30:56 am
Monmouth releases 1:00 EST


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 10:36:24 am
It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:









Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 10:38:09 am
It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:









He's ignoring the polls and the fact Lamb outraised Saccone by nearly 500%. What a hack.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 10:40:14 am
It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:









He's ignoring the polls and the fact Lamb outraised Saccone by nearly 500%. What a hack.

I think you read the tweets wrong.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 10:42:25 am
It's Rick Wilson so grain of salt:









He's ignoring the polls and the fact Lamb outraised Saccone by nearly 500%. What a hack.

I think you read the tweets wrong.

Looks like I did. 😳


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Torranski on March 12, 2018, 10:47:41 am

Whatever the result, I just hope it's on the mark.
I would hate for it to show Lamb up a couple of points, shifting the BREAKING NEWS narrative and causing the Blitzer's and Cizilla's to go into TITANIUM D mode, only for him to narrowly lose tomorrow. It's obvious that a narrow loss has the same implications as a narrow Lamb win, but a loss would lead to a deluge of THE WAVE IS DEAD hottakes, that could damage fundraising and morale for rural dem candidates like Ojeda.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Lean Branson on March 12, 2018, 10:50:48 am
I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Torranski on March 12, 2018, 11:02:00 am
I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.

Exactly. I can just imagine the CNN roundtable discussions in November.
"So Chris, you say the midterms were disappointing for the Democrats?"
"Welll yes Wolf, some polling suggested a 50 seat advantage in the house and a 52-48 split in the senate, so it's frankly embarrassing that they ended up with a 10 seat majority and a 51 seat majority. If this holds up, Trump is a lock for re-election."


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 12, 2018, 11:45:27 am
I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.

Exactly. I can just imagine the CNN roundtable discussions in November.
"So Chris, you say the midterms were disappointing for the Democrats?"
"Welll yes Wolf, some polling suggested a 50 seat advantage in the house and a 52-48 split in the senate, so it's frankly embarrassing that they ended up with a 10 seat majority and a 51 seat majority. If this holds up, Trump is a lock for re-election."

I imagine that the Democrats would be quite happy with that outcome regardless of how CNN might spin it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 12, 2018, 11:46:46 am
I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.

Exactly. I can just imagine the CNN roundtable discussions in November.
"So Chris, you say the midterms were disappointing for the Democrats?"
"Welll yes Wolf, some polling suggested a 50 seat advantage in the house and a 52-48 split in the senate, so it's frankly embarrassing that they ended up with a 10 seat majority and a 51 seat majority. If this holds up, Trump is a lock for re-election."

I imagine that the Democrats would be quite happy with that outcome regardless of how CNN might spin it.

Absolutely, and the sweet irony of Trump being put in a similar position Obama was would be the icing on the cake.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Torranski on March 12, 2018, 11:55:55 am
I hate that the media has done such a poor job of setting expectations. It's a Trump +20 district, ffs.

Exactly. I can just imagine the CNN roundtable discussions in November.
"So Chris, you say the midterms were disappointing for the Democrats?"
"Welll yes Wolf, some polling suggested a 50 seat advantage in the house and a 52-48 split in the senate, so it's frankly embarrassing that they ended up with a 10 seat majority and a 51 seat majority. If this holds up, Trump is a lock for re-election."

I imagine that the Democrats would be quite happy with that outcome regardless of how CNN might spin it.

Absolutely, and the sweet irony of Trump being put in a similar position Obama was would be the icing on the cake.

Oh hands down,  it would an amazing night. It's just that the cognitive dissonance is exasperating.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: marty on March 12, 2018, 11:55:59 am
Why is Saccone on the ropes when these pa-18 polls
Show trump around 52% approval in the district?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Torranski on March 12, 2018, 11:57:31 am
Quote
MonmouthPoll Retweeted
Patrick Murray
@PollsterPatrick
Going on @wolfblitzer #CNN in about 10 minutes to talk about our latest numbers on #PA18 special.
Here we go...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Brittain33 on March 12, 2018, 12:00:33 pm
New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45

With turnout similar to past midterms: Lamb leads 49-47

With turnout high across the board: Lamb leads 51-44


()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Brittain33 on March 12, 2018, 12:01:13 pm
Looks like Republicans aren't trying to fake set expectations

Predictit is now pricing Lamb at 64c a pound


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 12, 2018, 12:06:04 pm
I think this was the one, Gass. They still were in the field yesterday after all.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 12:08:52 pm
I am ecstatic! Of course it's just a poll and not the actual Election Day results, but the momentum has been with Conor for the past couple of weeks and I cannot imagine how Saccone will win now.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 12:09:47 pm
I think this was the one, Gass. They still were in the field yesterday after all.

Looks like it! Lets hope they're not wrong!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 12, 2018, 12:10:44 pm
I think this was the one, Gass. They still were in the field yesterday after all.

Your record is unblemished, dude. Please post any tidbit you get from this source if you can.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 12:13:07 pm
Guys, I think Holmes is God.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Torranski on March 12, 2018, 12:13:26 pm
Holmes: Sherlock of Polls


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 12, 2018, 12:14:16 pm

It's elementary for him.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 12:15:27 pm
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 12:16:20 pm
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans




I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: KingSweden on March 12, 2018, 12:19:39 pm
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans




I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

Is Gina Cerrilli busy?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 12:20:02 pm
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans




I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 12:21:22 pm
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans




I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.

The new PA14 will largely be comprised of the former PA18.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 12, 2018, 12:21:37 pm
I have the geographical results:

Surge model -

Lamb wins Allegheny 62-36
Lamb wins Washington/Greene 49-47
Lamb loses Westmoreland 54-40



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Torranski on March 12, 2018, 12:23:48 pm
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



If these numbers bear out in exit polling tomorrow, then I wonder what effect this will have on GOP funding for the PA Senate and Governor's race in November. I imagine they'll fight like crazy for the House seats on the new map, to prevent Democrats from taking vulnerable seats and establishing incumbents. But if Trump is this unpopular, it's going to be hard to beat Casey and Wolf.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 12, 2018, 12:24:42 pm
Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 12:25:06 pm
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans




I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.

The new PA14 will largely be comprised of the former PA18.

You make a good point, Democrats need to find a good candidate.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 12:25:36 pm
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



If these numbers bear out in exit polling tomorrow, then I wonder what effect this will have on GOP funding for the PA Senate and Governor's race in November. I imagine they'll fight like crazy for the House seats on the new map, to prevent Democrats from taking vulnerable seats and establishing incumbents. But if Trump is this unpopular, it's going to be hard to beat Casey and Wolf.

Wolf will be fine. Casey is not vulnerable.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Torranski on March 12, 2018, 12:31:24 pm
The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



If these numbers bear out in exit polling tomorrow, then I wonder what effect this will have on GOP funding for the PA Senate and Governor's race in November. I imagine they'll fight like crazy for the House seats on the new map, to prevent Democrats from taking vulnerable seats and establishing incumbents. But if Trump is this unpopular, it's going to be hard to beat Casey and Wolf.

Wolf will be fine. Casey is not vulnerable.

The real question is whether the GOP still throws money at the races, or triages them to funnel cash into other races. I'd much rather they knock a couple of percent off of Casey's vote total than Heitkamp's


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Anonymous on March 12, 2018, 12:33:17 pm
Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 12:37:44 pm
Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 12, 2018, 12:43:21 pm
Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 12, 2018, 12:43:34 pm
Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 12:47:04 pm
Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)

The human capital of the democratic candidates for the midterms has been phenomenal. We got Phil freaking Bredesen to run in Tennessee. The best the GOP could get is Kevin Cramer.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 12, 2018, 12:54:33 pm
Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)

The human capital of the democratic candidates for the midterms has been phenomenal. We got Phil freaking Bredesen to run in Tennessee. The best the GOP could get is Kevin Cramer.

Well, Rick Scott is extremely good. And I'd consider Evan Jenkins a good candidate as well (better than Kramer).

But yeah, the GOP recruits are... not great.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 12, 2018, 12:55:59 pm
Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 12:59:54 pm
Btw, funny that RCP only entered the low turnout model in their database.

Oh, and...



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 01:02:13 pm
It hit the number that Nate Cohn said he would want for college educated voters:

56% No college degree
44% 4-year college degree



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Brittain33 on March 12, 2018, 01:02:43 pm
Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Tender Branson on March 12, 2018, 01:03:46 pm
A +20 favorable rating in a usually R+25 district is pretty good.

Lamb seems to win this thing tomorrow.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on March 12, 2018, 01:11:07 pm
Man, I hope Lamb can pull this out.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 01:14:05 pm




Even after the Trump rally and even with them polling more Republican friendly areas, Lamb's lead stayed stable.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Virginia on March 12, 2018, 01:15:42 pm
Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 01:18:54 pm
I really cannot see Saccone winning this. The polls showed a continuous shift to Lamb, the crosstabs are extremely favorable to Conor. I would honestly be shell shocked if Saccone won. It would be due to extremely low turnout (Something I don't see happening).


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Badger on March 12, 2018, 01:22:41 pm
Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)

Beat me to it. ;)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on March 12, 2018, 01:49:20 pm
Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 01:50:51 pm
Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 12, 2018, 01:51:25 pm
Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH

Lmao


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Ebsy on March 12, 2018, 01:56:51 pm
www.politico.com/story/2018/03/12/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone-454728
 (http://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/12/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone-454728)
Yet there’s evidence the Republican offensive might be having some effect. A data analysis completed by the RNC during the middle of last week showed Lamb leading just 48 percent to 47 percent, according to two people briefed on the numbers. The Democrat’s advantage had shrunk from 4 percentage points in the committee’s previous analysis of the race days earlier.

RNC internals show Saccone down.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 12, 2018, 02:17:54 pm
I can envision a 3-4 point Lamb win. This race really got away from Republicans in recent weeks (though I don't think they were always heavily favored as some people think). Saccone has been a poor candidate and Lamb's exceeded expectations.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Bagel23 on March 12, 2018, 02:27:13 pm
Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!


SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Horus on March 12, 2018, 02:30:18 pm
My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 12, 2018, 02:34:10 pm
My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Horus has been possessed by LimoLiberal.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 12, 2018, 02:35:10 pm
My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Horus has been possessed by LimoLiberal.

The infallible Mind Model ™


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Bagel23 on March 12, 2018, 02:52:51 pm
()

This should have been on his billboards everywhere.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Deranged California Suburbanite on March 12, 2018, 02:58:26 pm
New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on March 12, 2018, 03:22:28 pm
I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 12, 2018, 03:26:06 pm
Future federal inmate Don Jr weighs in:



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 12, 2018, 03:28:10 pm
I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.

You're taking the low turnout poll option?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: President Griffin on March 12, 2018, 03:28:28 pm
Looking at statewide returns from 2012-2014 for the past five elections for state races (Gov, AG, Senate, Auditor & Treasurer), the Democrat has averaged 45.2% of the vote in this district. It's not unfathomable at all to see him easily clearing 50 now that I've seen these figures.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: History505 on March 12, 2018, 04:01:10 pm
Going to be one interesting night tomorrow...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 12, 2018, 04:06:17 pm
Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.

Popularity is overrated to an extent. Even when you account for Obama's popularity...he presided over one of the worst records since Truman for the Senate and FDR for the House in terms of losses.

()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Crumpets on March 12, 2018, 04:33:01 pm
Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34°F and light snow.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Virginia on March 12, 2018, 04:36:03 pm
Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.

Popularity is overrated to an extent. Even when you account for Obama's popularity...he presided over one of the worst records since Truman for the Senate and FDR for the House in terms of losses.

-snip-

Well that is because in 2014 he was pretty unpopular by modern standards - something like 40% approve / 51-52% disapprove, so even still lower than Trump. In 2010, he was breaking even around 45-45. However, the thing is, Democrats are at a clear disadvantage in the states, and the South still had a ton of Democrats in state offices, so it didn't take a deeply unpopular Democratic president to cause a massive loss of legislative seats. It just took one like Obama, who was straddling the line, and also represented a (small) break from the more Bill Clinton-like centrist approach. Democrats were very much over-extended after 2006 and 2008, and all it took was a midterm or two under a Democratic president to wipe out those gains. This is kind of why I don't like the "we lost 900-1000 legislative seats under Obama..." thing. It's a bit misleading, and attempts to explain a complex electoral situation by a snappy one-liner that doesn't answer the question in full.

So my thoughts are that approval ratings do matter. Presidents with 40% approval ratings are going to have a hard time getting re-elected (or elected in the first place at 40% favorable) unless their opponent is just as unpopular. In fact, if Trump is hovering around 37-38% approval in 2020, I do think it gives another opportunity for a wave. It's only if Trump maintains a consistent upper-40s / low-50s approval that I think he might have a shot, just like any other president with similar ratings. But I don't expect him to have those kinds of numbers in 2020. He's not capable of changing what he needs to change to achieve it.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: The Other Castro on March 12, 2018, 04:42:48 pm
Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34°F and light snow.

Snow is just another form of rain, checkmate libs.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 12, 2018, 04:44:21 pm
Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34°F and light snow.

Snow is just another form of rain, checkmate libs.

Advanced rain


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Skye on March 12, 2018, 04:57:08 pm
Gonna rate this Lean D now.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: cp on March 12, 2018, 04:58:50 pm
I really cannot see Saccone winning this. The polls showed a continuous shift to Lamb, the crosstabs are extremely favorable to Conor. I would honestly be shell shocked if Saccone won. It would be due to extremely low turnout (Something I don't see happening).

Great numbers for Lamb! *fingers crossed*

In the spirit of genuine debate (rather than concern trolling), if it turns out that Saccone somehow did pull out a victory tomorrow, how exactly would this happen? Or put another way, would would be the cause of the kind of polling error that would lead to Lamb being overestimated in this way?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: It's Trotsky Time on March 12, 2018, 04:59:43 pm
Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34°F and light snow.

Snow has destroyed Lamb in the Pittsburgh suburbs... I now predict that Saccone will get 78% of the vote based on my mind model


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 12, 2018, 05:01:34 pm

I'll jump on that bandwagon.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 12, 2018, 05:03:09 pm
Interesting:

Quote
Reminder of what strong presidential disapproval can mean in House races.  @MonmouthPoll in #PA18 has 41% of voters strongly disapproving of Trump. It found @ConorLambPA winning 99.4% of them, with .6% undecided. Did not find any strong disapprovers for Saccone.

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/973286355399790592


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Virginia on March 12, 2018, 05:11:17 pm
Interesting:

Quote
Reminder of what strong presidential disapproval can mean in House races.  @MonmouthPoll in #PA18 has 41% of voters strongly disapproving of Trump. It found @ConorLambPA winning 99.4% of them, with .6% undecided. Did not find any strong disapprovers for Saccone.

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/973286355399790592

Not too surprising. 538 and others like Cook have been remarking about strong approve/disapprove since Trump wormed his way into office. Someone who strongly dislikes Trump and what he is doing in office is not liable to help his party, which at this point I think is relatively clear will go far out of their way to protect Trump, no matter how dumb or corrupt his actions are. I have to admit, the lengths they will go is even surprising me. I always thought there would be a breaking point, but I guess that doesn't make sense since Republican voters like Trump a lot more than they like Republican lawmakers.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 05:15:07 pm
There are just too many factors that are in favor of Lamb. Lean D.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: President Griffin on March 12, 2018, 05:53:27 pm
Does anyone have any info on what the unions in the District have been doing in the election/the importance of the the various unions?

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/unions-conor-lamb-pa-18


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: henster on March 12, 2018, 06:13:21 pm
Saccone's closing message.

()

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 06:16:12 pm
Wow, no wonder he's about to lose tomorrow. Definitely the tone of a confident campaign.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Not_A_Man on March 12, 2018, 06:17:50 pm
Saccone's closing message.

()

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560

Calling your opponents Godless heathens isn't exactly a good thing to do to get your base out and keep the other side's out....


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 12, 2018, 06:20:18 pm
Saccone's closing message.

()

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560

Mann... I liked Saccone until that. Wtf is wrong with him?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 06:20:56 pm
Saccone's closing message.

()

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560

Mann... I liked Saccone until that. Wtf is wrong with him?

Yeah, I really can't see him winning.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: marty on March 12, 2018, 06:26:35 pm
Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on March 12, 2018, 06:26:46 pm
My prediction prior to today was Saccone winning by 3, now I'm not so sure. I had my doubts before about a Lamb victory tomorrow but that new Monmouth poll is truly astounding! Even with the possibility of snow, Lamb will likely keep it close at a bare minimum. I still suspect that this district's natural partisan lean might help Saccone eke out a narrow win but I am now more confident than ever that Lamb could very well pull this off. It's pathetic how happy I will be if he does.

This is a true tossup and I am at least confident that it will end up embarrassing the GOP with either them losing or barely winning in a district where a Democrat shouldn't have had a chance.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 06:28:10 pm
Guys. Lamb is going to win. Let's stop with the "Ohh partisan lean!" "Might eek out!" "Saccone +27" crap. The polls have continuously moved in favor of Lamb, he has the energized base, has the fundraising numbers, etc.

Plus, Saccone is talking like he knows he's gonna lose.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on March 12, 2018, 06:33:58 pm
Saccone's closing message.

()

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560

He sounds exactly like Trump here, did he have a stroke or something?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: President Griffin on March 12, 2018, 06:39:23 pm
"If you hate our President and especially if you hate our party, then you also hate God"

- Rick "Sacc'd" Saccone


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Mondale on March 12, 2018, 06:42:44 pm
Saccone's closing message.

()

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560

Looks like we're headed for a Lambslide


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Not_A_Man on March 12, 2018, 06:43:55 pm
Saccone's closing message.

()

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560

Looks like we're headed for a Lambslide

ba dum tss (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zXDo4dL7SU)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Virginia on March 12, 2018, 06:46:03 pm
Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?

It's not like if Lamb ran in 2016, he'd have won. Don't get me wrong, he's a great candidate (against a poor one at that), but the national environment and who is president has a lot to do with it. I'd even argue it has the most to do with it. In 2016, Obama was still the incumbent and Democrats were in an election under 8 continuous years of a Democratic president who was generally more unpopular than he was popular. That takes a toll.

This is why I sometimes say that I really think most people have forgotten just how much an unpopular incumbent president can hurt their party in elections held while that president is in office. It seriously sucks the energy out of their party while firing up the opposition. Doubly so when said president is extremely controversial, like Trump. They don't call it the White House curse for nothing.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 12, 2018, 06:53:32 pm
Is it too early to start making Lamb for Senate '22 signs?

Yes


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Brittain33 on March 12, 2018, 07:17:20 pm
Why did the republican win this by 37 in 2016?

In addition to what Virginia said, Murphy was pro-union and Democrats had given up seriously contesting this district with him in it (if they ever did.)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 12, 2018, 07:21:51 pm

Yeah, don't put the cart before the horse.  There were people talking up Ossoff for President in 2028 before the GA-6 special.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on March 12, 2018, 07:25:17 pm
Guys. Lamb is going to win. Let's stop with the "Ohh partisan lean!" "Might eek out!" "Saccone +27" crap. The polls have continuously moved in favor of Lamb, he has the energized base, has the fundraising numbers, etc.

Plus, Saccone is talking like he knows he's gonna lose.

I hope you're right.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: KingSweden on March 12, 2018, 07:34:23 pm

Yeah, don't put the cart before the horse.  There were people talking up Ossoff for President in 2028 before the GA-6 special.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Young Conservative on March 12, 2018, 07:35:45 pm
Is it too early to start making Lamb for Senate '22 signs?
Jumping the gun is a favorite pastime of atlas


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: ExSky on March 12, 2018, 08:01:32 pm
Am i misthinking, or is this race the most concerning for Republicans. Doug Jones winning in Alabama was crazy, but this is a coal district and the numbers have been trending Lamb and the momentum isnt slowing. If this works out, and it looks like it will, a blue dog democrat revival in the rust belt could be underway.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 12, 2018, 08:02:07 pm
Who's ready for the inevitable panic/elation over anecdotal turnout reports?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: swf541 on March 12, 2018, 08:11:27 pm
Who's ready for the inevitable panic/elation over anecdotal turnout reports?

I for one am hyped for the atlas freak outs


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Smash255 on March 12, 2018, 08:12:30 pm
Am i misthinking, or is this race the most concerning for Republicans. Doug Jones winning in Alabama was crazy, but this is a coal district and the numbers have been trending Lamb and the momentum isnt slowing. If this works out, and it looks like it will, a blue dog democrat revival in the rust belt could be underway.

Hard to say.  While there are strong coal ties in the district, the district is more white collar than what most people think.  If Lamb wins it will almost certainly be because he torched Saccone in the white collar well-educated inner suburbs.  The blue collar coal regions will likely swing as well and will have some impact, but this could also be viewed as more evidence of the absolute collapse of the GOP with well educated suburbanites.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on March 12, 2018, 08:18:56 pm
This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on March 12, 2018, 08:20:39 pm
Who's ready for the inevitable panic/elation over anecdotal turnout reports?

I for one am hyped for the atlas freak outs
And I'm dreading the premature reports of "Saccone/Lamb has won it" when less than 20% of the precincts are counted.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on March 12, 2018, 08:21:03 pm
This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)

Except that like 95% of voters in the district don't care enough about it to sway their votes.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 08:26:16 pm
I have anxiety every Election Day all day. This one is really going to put me on edge, more so than the Alabama Senate race.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 12, 2018, 08:37:49 pm
This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)

Except that like 95% of voters in the district don't care enough about it to sway their votes.

In fact, the Monmouth poll found that 96% of the voters said that the tariff announcement did not affect their vote.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 08:38:58 pm
Didn't the Monmouth poll state that over 95% of the voters said the tariffs will not effect their vote?

Btw, Oldies, nobody in South Western Pennsylvania cares about Kim Jung-un.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Speaker OneJ on March 12, 2018, 08:40:05 pm
This contest is fool's gold for Democrats, just like the GA-6 election was.  The announcements of the steel tariffs and the meeting with Kim will push Saccone over the line.  (I almost wonder if the timing of the tariff announcement was timed to coincide with this election.)

Proof, please. Oh wait...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 12, 2018, 08:41:15 pm
Didn't the Monmouth poll state that over 95% of the voters said the tariffs will not effect their vote?

See previous post above yours. :)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 12, 2018, 08:44:16 pm
For the love of Christ. How many times do I have to explain that GA-06 and PA-18 are two completely different districts with completely different candidates? Different income groups, different ethnicities, different histories, different party registration, etc. There is no correlation between Ossoff and Lamb besides the fact they are in their 30s. Lamb is strong, charismatic, relatable, and he fits the district like a glove. He's also been GAINING traction in the polls. Ossoff LOST ground in the final weeks, and by Election Day, Handel had the advantage. Don't believe me? Here's the proof: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/house/ga/georgia_6th_district_runoff_election_handel_vs_ossoff-6202.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/house/ga/georgia_6th_district_runoff_election_handel_vs_ossoff-6202.html)

ENOUGH with the comparisons.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: socaldem on March 12, 2018, 09:16:28 pm
So if Conor Lamb wins PA-18 and runs in PA-17, as expected....

What if Saccone decides to run again in PA-14 on the basis that he won the territory in the new PA-14 that overlaps with the old PA-18?

Would he potentially endanger PA-14 for the GOP in 2018?

The filing deadline is the 20th... Saccone's current district is mostly Allegheny but it straddles Washington.

If Conor Lamb gets in the mid-40s in the non-Allegheny part of the district, that could spell some trouble for Saccone because the new district adds in the bluer (still red but very ancestrally Democratic) parts of Washington/Greene, all of historically Democratic Fayette County and some Dem pockets of Westmoreland.

Saccone is a suburban/exurban politician and his antagonistic relationship with unions would not play well in the new territory.

If Dems were to recruit a Dem more conservative than Lamb (a la Ojeda) and Saccone were to have the stink of a loss on him, could we get a twofer out of this?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on March 12, 2018, 09:32:40 pm
So if Conor Lamb wins PA-18 and Saccone decides to run again in PA-14?

Would he potentially endanger PA-14 for the GOP?

The filing deadline is the 20th... Saccone's current district is mostly Allegheny but it straddles Washington.

If Conor Lamb gets in the mid-40s in the non-Allegheny part of the district, that could spell some trouble for Saccone because the new district adds in the bluer (still red but very ancestrally Democratic) parts of Washington/Greene/Westmoreland counties plus Fayette County.

Saccone is a suburban/exurban politician and his antagonistic relationship with unions would not play well in the new territory.

If Dems were to recruit a Dem more conservative than Lamb and Saccone were to have the stink of a loss on him, could we get a twofer out of this?
Tossup with cerilli


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on March 12, 2018, 09:58:13 pm
Saccone's closing message.

()

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560

I hope Lamb wins.. This guy seems like a dumba$$


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Georgia Is A Swing State on March 12, 2018, 10:27:09 pm
Saccone's closing message.

()

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560
This literally reads like a Roy Moore speech. LOL.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Badger on March 12, 2018, 10:28:49 pm
Saccone's closing message.

()

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560

Mann... I liked Saccone until that. Wtf is wrong with him?

Honestly, this is pretty much typical for him. At least when he's not heavily managed or filtered through spokespersons


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: McGovernForPrez on March 12, 2018, 11:08:16 pm
Saccone's closing message.

()

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/973325643160215560

Mann... I liked Saccone until that. Wtf is wrong with him?

Honestly, this is pretty much typical for him. At least when he's not heavily managed or filtered through spokespersons
He's like the low energy version of Donald Trump.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: NOVA Green on March 12, 2018, 11:30:54 pm
Does anyone have any info on what the unions in the District have been doing in the election/the importance of the the various unions?

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/unions-conor-lamb-pa-18

I was wondering what exactly Lamb was doing yesterday in Greene County, which after all makes up a relatively small share of the total votes within the district, speaking to that standing room crowd at the Greene County Fairgrounds to a heavily UMWA audience....

Now it starts to make a bit more sense when one thinks of the compare/contrast argument to Ancestral Dems in Washington and Greene County, which as recently as 2008 basically split their vote 50-50 in a US Presidential election.

One must also wonder to what extent the "Wildcat" Teachers strike in West Virginia, right over the border has received significant local media coverage as a major victory for a revitalized Labor Movement deep in the heart of Union Country, where only a few short decades back there was a major wildcat strike in the Coal Industry.

Here's an image of a something close to the T-Shirt that a 3rd Generation UMW/UMWA Coal Miner gave me when I was in College in Ohio in the early '90s and was bringing the UMWA to campuses throughout the region in Solidarity with the General Strike in the Appalachian Coal fields in '93, shortly after the bosses declared open war against the Miners after the Pittston Strike of '89.

()

Although many Union members in this region have long felt betrayed by national Democratic Political leaders it looks entirely feasible that in this case that the collective memories, knowledge, and family background does a compare/contrast of "Which Side are You On" between the two candidates to represent them in the US House....



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: NOVA Green on March 12, 2018, 11:43:59 pm
New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45

With turnout similar to past midterms: Lamb leads 49-47

With turnout high across the board: Lamb leads 51-44


()

I'll treat any and all polls from a House Special Election with some serious grains of salt, even from an A+ polling outfit....

Polling for US-House elections have notoriously high MOEs as it is, let alone accounting for Special Election scenarios where there is only one race on the ballot.

Still, no question this is good news for Lamb especially considering the adjustments for various turnout scenarios.

One things that amused me slightly was one of the comments downthread from a Tweet from one of the polling dudes about adjusting to reflect the data from "Republican Precincts in Allegheny County"....

After looking at the precinct data from '12/'16 the vast majority of the precincts in Allegheny CD-18 are "Republican Precincts", even if we were to adjust to screen out precincts in Mount Lebanon (Democratic Stronghold) that more often than not tend to Lean 'Pub, but swung +20 Dem between '12 and '16.

Honestly it's starting to feel a bit like Lamb might have a best of two worlds:

1.) Increased dramatic swings within the Upper-Income Pittsburgh Suburban/Exurban parts of the district, especially in some of townships where there were only +5% Dem swings between '12/'16 (With 3rd Party Vote surges).

2.) Return of ancestral Dem voters in Washington/Greene many of whom were Obama/Romney/Trump voters at the National Level, but have still continued to give local/statewide Dems a decent shake.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: rob in cal on March 13, 2018, 12:41:00 am
  I'm declaring this race over, just put 20% of my predictit account on Lamb at 66% chance to win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 13, 2018, 02:33:43 am
Lamb's got this.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Justice Blair on March 13, 2018, 03:03:09 am
I’m too lazy to find the clip but Saconne was awful at the Trump rally. Was screaming at the top of his lungs, waving his arms, lavishly praised Trump and then made those stupid god comments.

The GOP have had some awful canidiate and it will be interesting to watch how more skilled politicians like Rick Scott, McSally etc run in the Trump age.

Fwiw I wonder if Ryan will retire if lamb wins.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: cp on March 13, 2018, 03:16:05 am
So the big day is finally here!

A couple of logistical questions:

1. Will there be an exit poll?

2. Related to that, are there any sources for information pre-8pm that aren't completely hackish/untrustworthy?

3. What are the best sites for following the tally?

4. How long will it take to count the ballots? Or put another way, at what percentage of the ballot count can we expect a definitive result?

FWIW, my money is on Lamb by 2.5.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 05:29:24 am
So... any turnout reports yet?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 13, 2018, 05:59:13 am

Go back to bed. :)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 07:23:39 am

You realize it was 5:30 am when you sent that, right?

It was a joke, my sweet :)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: President Griffin on March 13, 2018, 07:44:08 am
Is everybody ready for the ride? Because it never ends!

Get your panic and popcorn ready, and be prepared to overreact to every single morsel of information as it comes in!

()

()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 08:14:13 am
Let's light this thread UP! Rise and shine, Atlasians!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 08:26:21 am
Btw, the weather is BEAUTIFUL in Allegheny right now!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 13, 2018, 08:28:04 am
Finally woke up and I'm currently in the middle of the Nor'Eastern, so I'm going to be here all day. But since its the final day, I give a concluding thought.

As we have known for a while, there are very few takeaways from this election. It is only one house seat, on a map that is vanishing. If Lamb wins, then he probably eliminates of of Rothfus's non-monetary incumbency advantage for his challenge to PA-17, with an open PA-14. If Saccone wins, then PA-14 isn't open, but Lamb is still challenging Rothfus - so does it matter?

However, one thing that still hold true, and probably explains why this race became so close, is that the parties really need to ensure good Candidate recruitment. Excluding the controversial torture stuff, Saccone has a excellent resume that would lock up many types of congressional seats. However, as Wasserman states, the best and historically victorious candidates tend to have life stories that are harmonious with the district, regardless of ideology. Saccone lacks the working class  reputation that still flows through the seat, and instead has a more Allegheny-suburban one. His Pro-RTW past probably matched these Republican suburbs - and would match many other parts of the country, but here they sent the still strong Unions against him.

The defending party loves to say that they have candidates who know their district and can localize the race the prevent defeat. However, these special elections have shone that Democrats have a great bench of B - tier candidates who match their seat, while Republicans are struggling with C and D tier candidates that don't match their seats (or F like Moore).


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: superbudgie1582 on March 13, 2018, 08:28:36 am
Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 13, 2018, 08:38:13 am
Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 08:38:48 am
Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yep.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: KingSweden on March 13, 2018, 08:40:02 am
Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 13, 2018, 08:42:16 am
Miles has his map ready:

()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: cp on March 13, 2018, 08:50:55 am
Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43388723) is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 13, 2018, 08:52:00 am
Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43388723) is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.


Too much of a coincidence for it to be a coincidence.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 08:55:58 am
Heard from a friend that lines are already long in Allegheny. Plus the weather is very nice.

Still ten hours to go.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 13, 2018, 08:57:29 am

Miles being forced to use the bad colors.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 13, 2018, 08:57:50 am
Thank you JMC for the map template.

()


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on March 13, 2018, 09:03:59 am
Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43388723) is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.

If he can impose steel tariffs for the sake of this election, then nothing is off the table tbh.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 13, 2018, 09:04:54 am

Miles being forced to use the bad colors.

Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia on March 13, 2018, 09:10:10 am
It's a bad omen when even tax cuts can't lift your candidate in a heavily Republican district that went for Trump by 20 points in 2016:

Republicans abandon tax cut message in Pa. special election (https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/13/pennsylvania-special-election-preview-tax-republicans-458276)
It’s a sign they think the issue isn’t resonating — potentially a big problem in the midterms.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: kph14 on March 13, 2018, 09:12:49 am
Its over. Calling it now: snow has destroyed Lamb in Allegheny County, in this competitive house race.  Saccone wins by 2-3 points, and a very slight or none at all net gain for Democrats in the house in november.


(/s)

Funny.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 09:13:26 am
I know he's trolling, but in all seriousness the weather is nice here.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 13, 2018, 09:21:22 am
The weather looks to be the worst in Washington county today if weather.com is to be believed.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 13, 2018, 09:25:54 am
The weather looks to be the worst in Washington county today if weather.com is to be believed.

I seriously doubt a half-inch of snow will prevent anyone from voting.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: KingSweden on March 13, 2018, 10:01:24 am
The weather looks to be the worst in Washington county today if weather.com is to be believed.

I seriously doubt a half-inch of snow will prevent anyone from voting.

Rain in NoVA, however...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: fluffypanther19 on March 13, 2018, 10:07:17 am

Miles being forced to use the bad colors.

Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.
im still fairly new here and I gotta ask; why are dems red and reps blue? just cause? It threw me off for a bit when I first got here


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 10:07:48 am
Rick Saccone (again) claiming that Democrats hate God. Is he doing this because he knows he's gonna lose?



Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: superbudgie1582 on March 13, 2018, 10:08:39 am
@fluffypanther19
In politics worldwide, red is usually associated with the left and blue with the right.

Edit: The USA is the opposite for some reason.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 13, 2018, 10:11:32 am

Miles being forced to use the bad colors.

Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.
im still fairly new here and I gotta ask; why are dems red and reps blue? just cause? It threw me off for a bit when I first got here

This site existed before the two parties formalized their colors post-Florida, when the media was referring to blue/red counties.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: superbudgie1582 on March 13, 2018, 10:14:50 am
I don't think that's right @Oryx. The red-republicans, blue-democrats color scheme was in use during 90s election coverage.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: KingSweden on March 13, 2018, 10:15:12 am

Miles being forced to use the bad colors.

Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.
im still fairly new here and I gotta ask; why are dems red and reps blue? just cause? It threw me off for a bit when I first got here

Dave picked those colors before Red = Republican and Blue = Democrat


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Ebsy on March 13, 2018, 10:17:54 am
The shift in the US happened during the ordeal that was 2000 I believe, due to the New York Times publishing election maps using the present colors. Before that there was not any consensus among media outlets.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gustaf on March 13, 2018, 10:18:47 am
I don't think that's right @Oryx. The red-republicans, blue-democrats color scheme was in use during 90s election coverage.

My understanding is that the norm was to use blue for the incumbent party. So Democrats were blue in 1996 and 2000, GOP was blue in the 80s.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 13, 2018, 10:18:51 am

Miles being forced to use the bad colors.

Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.
im still fairly new here and I gotta ask; why are dems red and reps blue? just cause? It threw me off for a bit when I first got here

Dave picked those colors before Red = Republican and Blue = Democrat

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/08/red-vs-blue-a-brief-history-of-how-we-use-political-colors/ has a nice history of this.  I remember NBC's coverage with Red-D and Blue-R in elections from '76 or so.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: superbudgie1582 on March 13, 2018, 10:22:11 am
I don't think that's right @Oryx. The red-republicans, blue-democrats color scheme was in use during 90s election coverage.

My understanding is that the norm was to use blue for the incumbent party. So Democrats were blue in 1996 and 2000, GOP was blue in the 80s.

Ohhhh, that makes sense.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 10:31:44 am
Saw a picture on Instagram of somebody voting in Forward Township in Allegheny. Nobody was in line. Trump won here with 66% of the vote.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Temporarily Embarrassed Millionaire on March 13, 2018, 10:34:29 am
Saw a picture on Instagram of somebody voting in Forward Township in Allegheny. Nobody was in line. Trump won here with 66% of the vote.

PANIC OVER TURNOUT


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Andy Beshear Have My Babies on March 13, 2018, 10:35:31 am
Saw a picture on Instagram of somebody voting in Forward Township in Allegheny. Nobody was in line. Trump won here with 66% of the vote.

Looks like Saccone will win it with 100%!


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 13, 2018, 10:37:13 am
Heard from a friend that lines are already long in Allegheny. Plus the weather is very nice.

Still ten hours to go.

You know where at in Allegheny?


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 13, 2018, 10:39:02 am
This lady seems credible. She's followed by some election nerds.




Looks like there is exit polling, at least for the Lamb campaign.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 13, 2018, 10:41:48 am
This lady seems credible. She's followed by some election nerds.




Looks like there is exit polling, at least for the Lamb campaign.

She's a Political Science professor at the University of Pittsburgh. So very legit.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 13, 2018, 10:42:30 am
Also:





Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: LimoLiberal on March 13, 2018, 10:43:16 am
This lady seems credible. She's followed by some election nerds.




Looks like there is exit polling, at least for the Lamb campaign.

She's a Political Science professor at the University of Pittsburgh. So very legit.

Ok, so we're at the elation point of the pre-election anecdotal reports.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Holmes on March 13, 2018, 10:45:40 am
Saccone' calling himself the underdog.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/13/rick-saccone-underdog-458346


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Gass3268 on March 13, 2018, 10:47:01 am
This lady seems credible. She's followed by some election nerds.




Looks like there is exit polling, at least for the Lamb campaign.

She's a Political Science professor at the University of Pittsburgh. So very legit.

Ok, so we're at the elation point of the pre-election anecdotal reports.

Let's try to bring that down to cautiously optimistic.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Torranski on March 13, 2018, 10:50:12 am
Saccone' calling himself the underdog.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/13/rick-saccone-underdog-458346

Saccone should realise that there is a difference between being an underdog and blowing a race that should be an easy win.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 10:50:57 am
Yeah, Lamb's probably going to win this. They can't use the "Workers get off at 5" excuse since a trove of working class individuals are going for Lamb.

Btw, my Aunt lives in Mt. Lebanon. You're welcome, Conor. ;)


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 10:53:20 am
Everything is working in his favor: Poll numbers, turnout, weather, enthusiasm, fundraising numbers, etc. I'm getting to the point where I would be kinda shocked if Saccone were to pull this off.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: fluffypanther19 on March 13, 2018, 10:58:41 am
@fluffypanther19
In politics worldwide, red is usually associated with the left and blue with the right.

Edit: The USA is the opposite for some reason.
oh ok. thank you


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: fluffypanther19 on March 13, 2018, 10:59:22 am

Miles being forced to use the bad colors.

Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.
im still fairly new here and I gotta ask; why are dems red and reps blue? just cause? It threw me off for a bit when I first got here

Dave picked those colors before Red = Republican and Blue = Democrat
thank you


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Lean Branson on March 13, 2018, 11:00:47 am
Maybe we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves? This is still a Trump +20 district, and the polling we've got indicates that this race is Lean Lamb at best.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Classic Conservative on March 13, 2018, 11:01:37 am
Everything is working in his favor: Poll numbers, turnout, weather, enthusiasm, fundraising numbers, etc. I'm getting to the point where I would be kinda shocked if Saccone were to pull this off.
That rain in NoVa though...


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on March 13, 2018, 11:02:16 am
Yeah Democrats here are sounding far too confident considering this is a tossup race in a heavily Republican district.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Arch on March 13, 2018, 11:03:29 am
Yeah Democrats here are sounding far too confident considering this is a tossup race in a heavily Republican district.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this. That's as far as I go. But I will celebrate it as much as the AL Senate victory if it happens because it would be an astounding victory.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Ebsy on March 13, 2018, 11:04:50 am
We have our first turnout report:





11% turnout at 10:30. Precinct results from 2016:

Clinton: 33
Trump: 63

DePasquale : 40
Brown: 55


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Hollywood756 on March 13, 2018, 11:06:04 am
Dammit, Josh and Toby want to have a word with ALL of you Jinxing effing Jinxers!  IT ISN'T OVER.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Deranged California Suburbanite on March 13, 2018, 11:08:26 am
Thank you JMC for the map template.

()

Thank you for spreading the Good Word.


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on March 13, 2018, 11:13:11 am
Let's not jinx but having said that there is definitely better news on the ground for Conor then say Ossoff


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 13, 2018, 11:23:01 am


Lambslide


Title: Re: PA-18 Special Election - Tossup Race
Post by: The Saint on March 13, 2018, 11:28:12 am
Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

Yeah, I can't see how a chaotic day at the WH will help turnout for him at all.

I assume this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43388723) is what we're talking about.

I don't know that it will really affect turnout or Saccone's support ... however, it is a pretty surefire way to make sure the likely (but by no means guaranteed) GOP loss tonight will barely register in the papers over the next few days.

I'm not saying Trump did this, btw. Dumping a secretary of state in order to distract attention away from a single special election loss is spectacularly poor strategy. But to be honest, it fits Trump's modus pretty comfortably.