Talk Elections

Election results:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

Last time this seat was challenged in 2012, the Republican won by nearly 30 points. Further, this is a district which despite containing a significant suburban vote, also contains a share of rural, Appalachian, southwest Pennsylvania, where Trump's support should be much more durable than elsewhere. With that in mind, I'd say these numbers aren't bad at all.

Poll taken before Wolff book

The book that has mixed reviews at best.

That's going to change how Americans view Tax Reform?

The only reviewer that matters is the American public and they are buying the book in droves using money from the tax cuts everyone already forgot about (tax reform bump = dead)

Right where Jones was two months before the election. 8)

Trump was not +15 in Alabama....

With all due respect you are the biggest hack on this site limbo

Liberals who hate trump are buying it.

Doesn't matter. All we are talking about now is Trump's brain damage, mental deficiencies, and the gorilla channel

Everyone already forgot about tax reform. Not looking good. It will reflect in the polls very soon. Expect generic ballot to be D+20

Trump is just weird I really doubt that he has brain damage or mental deficiencies.

I still believe the democrats are going to take back the house. I correctly pointed out that there were several "bad" toplines for Democrats in this poll, and also noted that it was only one poll from a not-stellar pollster, and that Casey had a good approval topline.

With all due respect, it's far more hackish and pathetic to launch a ad hominen attack on someone because they analyze a poll in a way not favorable to Democrats.

Hey idk either...it's just what many people are saying. The book is very bad for Mr Trump. It has rained all over tax reform

This is the heart of Trump country, not a district with tons of Republicans who reluctantly held their noses.  It's a bit like Republicans trying to take back the CA districts that flipped in 2006/08 in 2010.  By and large, it just didn't happen.

It shouldn't be representative of the national environment or the battle for House control.  Could be an early warning to those who think Manchin or Heitkamp are fine, though.

This is a good point. Appalachian Demosaurs could still love the Tax Reform (and Trump), but we can't know if that applies to the rural and midwestern democrats, like those in IA-01 and the upstate NY districts. All though Appalachia and the rural midwest both shifted R heavily in 2016, that doesn't necessarily mean that they will react the same way to Trump.

People are overreacting here, it's one poll from an not so wonderful firm 3 months before the special election. I want to see which other firms come up with, but we should really just rely on fundamentals.

The topline seems OK but I'm skeptical about Trump's approval numbers.
The guy couldn't even break 50 at Alabama and he is at +15 here?

This is the sort of district I'd expect the Trumpish GOP to overperform in. I fully expect Saccone to comfortably win by 8-10 points.

He has risen significantly in the 538 and rcp aggregator since the Alabama election.

Are people seriously arguin that some book written with the express intent of painting Trump in a negative light will shape how the public views tax reform lmao

That's the dumbest assertion I've heard since rain will destroy Northam in NoVA.

Trump obviously has a higher approval in Alabama than the polls or exit poll showed. There was a huge turnout gap due to Moore's toxicity, and thus GOP voters were not making it through LV screens. This deflated Trump's approval among special election voters, but it is certainly higher among the larger population of RVs.

Oh yeah, an 18-point swing is horrible. We're all doomed.

This is a textbook case of moving the goalposts. Expectations of Democrats have increased and thus some Republicans, such as yourself, are realigning your benchmarks to unreasonable positions in order to bolster your own opinions. Murphy was winning PA-18 by like 28 points in 2012 while Casey and Manchin won comfortably and in a landslide, respectively. Losing by more than 10 points in this special means none of what you said, Greedo.

This thread is dumb. Republicans leading by 12 in a district Trump won by 20 is hardly great news for them. Of course, it pours cold water over the Atlas fantasy of Dems winning 100+ House seats, but who cares.

Also, if those are Wolf's and Casey's real approvals in this district, they're both going to win re-election easily.

But I’m saying that cause trumps approval rating could make or break manchin. If trump goes into PA-OH-WV and attacks those 3 non stop they could lose.

Trump is unpopular in PA, you know. This is a poll of a heavily Republican district that he won by 20 points.

I would have thought that after Alabama, you'd realize that Trump's influence is actually a lot more limited than previously thought. Especially in states where he is unpopular (such as PA, and probably OH). I also doubt Trump blabbing all night on a stage in West Virginia would topple Manchin.

The biggest thing in this poll is the tax reform approval honestly. This fits with a recent national Gallup poll showing it was at 40% approval (and around -5 overall), indicating that the bill is in fact getting more popular. We will see whether that continues or if it just ends up being popular with Rs and no one else.

Trump is almost certainly unpopular in Pennsylvania. Because of that, I doubt that Trump could go into Pennyslvania and defeat Casey, no matter how much he would attack him.

However, in a blue-collar-ish district that he won by 20 points, his approval rating is +15. That indicates with near 100% certainty that Trump is popular in West Virginia, most likely very popular. Greedo's point was that if Trump spent a lot of energy and time into attacking Joe Manchin, he could leverage that popularity to deliver the Republican the senate seat.

I mean, it would've been hard for it to get LESS popular, so obviously it was going to improve somewhat if it actually passed and the right wing had their victory parties.

I trolled about Tax Reform constantly, suggesting a "huge" Tax Reform Bump which didn't really happen.

But I was also ridiculed for suggesting that the bonuses from major companies and stripping of all the unpopular elements could make the tax bill more popular, and I have no doubt in my mind that the bill has gotten more popular since the height of its unpopularity.

We already know Trump is popular in West Virginia though. And yes, I do think Manchin is likely to lose. Greedo lumped Brown and Casey in with Manchin in that post, which is obviously ridiculous.

I really disagree with this.

Just look at how well it worked for Luther Strange. Are you high?

Maybe OH and WV, but not PA. Casey dominates Trump in the state.

I wish.

Erm, this seat was won by Romney by around 17pts and Murphy by 28pts in 2012. And all those guys you listed did just fine. Hell, Murphy even won it by over 28pts in 2008, IMHO, very little correlation. In this part of the country, a lot of elections are settled by name rec, personality, and populism. That's why you see things like Capito, McKinley, and Manchin (won both those districts heavily), all winning their districts by big margins despite being very different, and on opposite parties. Name brand matters, correlations, especially in Appalachia are hard to draw. It is a very flexible region. Saccone only at 12+ (which is arguable, it's only 1 poll) is actually a really sh!tty result for the GOP. And if we were to draw correlations (again, not a fan of that), it's definitely not something to be celebrating for the GOP.

Not to even mention the ginormous cash advantage Saccone has over Lamb right now. If Saccone 12+ holds up (again just one poll), that is quite a crappy result for the GOP.

The Wolf Book will do nothing to districts like this or any other election. It is riddled with blatant falsehoods and it no longer has any credibility. I do not know a single person taking it seriously, or anyone who is shocked by its contents.

Now, on to this, it is extremely good for Republicans. It also bodes horribly for Heitkamp and McCaskill who relied to some degree on rural support for victories.

Sounds like Trump's disastrous, no good presidency

How is being up 12 in a district Trump won by 20 extremely good for Republicans? Seriously, how? Unless you were expecting a complete bloodbath in 2018.

Dems may get a swingy seat out of SWPA if the courts strike down the maps, in most cases PA-18 would get redder in a redrawn. But PA-12 could become a pickup opportunity under new lines.

Well yeah but I mentioned PA as well since it’s WV in the SW. but if I were manchin I would start to get scared because he didn’t vote for the tax reform it makes it a lot harder for me and trump to support manchin.

The idea that a congressional race is a precursor to how senate races involving incumbents is utterly ridiculous and serious wishful thinking on part of atlas resident reps

lmao, I'm sure Manchin is gravely concerned about some socially maladjusted teenager from Washington's opinion of him.

He should be concerned with something even worse though: WV voters.

He has a better approval rating than Shelley Moore Capito: https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/ (https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/)

and lol at people acting like a poll of one congressional district is indicative of an entire state

Trump campaigning against Manchin could hurt, but it could do near nothing, as seen in AL. It's a wild card.

More or less "normal" numbers for Appalachia. It may be less admiring of Trump then year ago, but still of rather low opinion about Democratic party as it is.

I want to believe that Lamb is a great candidate and Saccone is a terrible candidate etc. but I suppose this is the kind of district where you would expect Trump support to be most durable.

I'm expecting Saccone to win by 10 but if tax reform is underperforming Trump approvals, I'm not too concerned about a tax reform bump.

Ok... in all honesty, given the variance in the AL polling that we just saw, how can anyone even think this poll has any meaning? Alabama ranged from Jones +10 to Moore +9. Given that it's a CD and not a state, why would this poll be considered a sign of anything?

We still have long time to go and keep in mind this is still vintage Gravis people. Plus, the assumption that Manchin is supposedly in trouble due to this is silly.

Good poll. Not only does it show a massive shift given how much Trump won the district by, it shows that if turnout favors Democrats enough (which evidence shows there is a good chance of happening), this district is in play. At this point I'd be really surprised if Saccone wins by more than 10, in part since that hasn't even been done by a single other special federal election. Still pinning this race at Lean R, though much closer to Likely R than Tilt R. Democrats need to hope this district stays under the radar like SC-05 or KS-04 for a close result and hope that it's not a repeat of GA-06. 

We'll see what that looks like after the ads and Trump attacks start.

IceSpear, before you start calling results months before an election again, may I just remind you of Alabama. :P

I didn't call it, actually. I changed my rating from Safe R to Lean R. ;)

Hmm.

This. Manchin has also easily barnstormed reelection when the GOP held well over double the lead this poll shows now in this district, this sh!t is simply not connected, nice try though!

Murphy’s closest race was in 2006, a Democrat wave election.   He was also accused of illegally using District office employees to work in his campaign .  He won 58% to 42%.  Last year Trump won 58.1% to 38.5%.  So, is the bench mark for Saccone not 58%?    In that case right now Saccone is 12% short of 58% and Lamb is 8% short of 42%.  Saccone is also getting 14% of Democrats.

By the way In 2014 Corbett beat Wolf 54.9 to 45.1.  Wolf could be as big a drag as Trump.  Even in 2012 Obama lost 57.9 % to 41% and Casey lost 53.4% to 44.

I am not saying Lamb cannot climb the hill.  But it will not be easy. Even in a flood the GOP will not lose every seat

Also, if Saccone wins, that still does mean there will not be a wave.  I would suggest my Democrat friends here not place a lot of emotional energy in this race. 

Very good post, actually I am surprised, good job. I'd say the Republican benchmark should be about 56%. Anything lower than that would be embarrassing.

I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.

Literally nobody will care about this besides this forum and Politico columnists though.

Potential Big Donors might care though....

Maybe but Republicans will always have their precious donors either way, so moot point.

They don't believe they'll always have them though, that's the thing. Part of why they were able to muscle through tax reform was they told legislators that big donors would abandon the party if tax reform didn't pass

Despite this poll result and the district's Trumpy profile, here's your Republican dog sweat article in Politico:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/11/trump-special-election-pennsylvania-pittsburgh-336502

Interesting, and a bit early too. I would've expected him to visit a bit closer to the election date. They must be sweating though.

I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.

Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.

Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

Please do show your sources.

I think somebody from PA named “PittsburgSteel” knows his corner of the country better than you

Look he won WEST VIRGINIA by the biggest margin in history. Eastern Kentucky he won every county first time that has happened in history. He only lost 3-7 county’s in all the Appalachia region.

Except di shows clear tendencies of hatred to everything that is republican.

Yeah, well Pittsburgh is smack in the corner of PA. South Western PA.

He still won the Appalachians by the biggest or second biggest margin in history.

^ Of course. But Pittsburgh itself is not in the district. And the southernmost part of Allegheny county (which is in 18th), is, probably, less Democratic then Pittsburgh. In addition - Trump won Washington county (most of which is in 18th) with 60%, Westmoreland county (large part of which is in 18th too) with 63.5%, and relatively small Greene county (also mostly in 18th) with 68.5%. I can easily believe that Trump's popularity decreased since November 2016, but hardly SO much.

lol. If you're familiar with the poster Bandit from Kentucky, you'd see what a foolish statement that was.

Yeah. Being "local" is a plus, of course, but it doesn't neccessary mean being objective and knowledgeable...

The Gravis poll has Trump’s approval at 54% - 39% in the 18th among likely voters.

Trump carried the District 58.1% to 38.5%.

Of course Gravis likely voter sample may not include enough energized Democrat voters.

Yes. That's why see as most likely Republican win in high single digits (7-9%), instead of 15-20. But still - rather solid win.

2 months before an election in a red district.  I hope the Democrats do come home in this race and hopefully it tightens a bit. 

Big coal mine in Greene County is shutting down 370 people to be laid off, should be an issue Dems talk about.

http://www.post-gazette.com/business/career-workplace/2018/01/03/Mepco-Greene-County-coal-mine-layoffs-Morgantown-West-Virginia/stories/201801030235

This is what I mean. Pennsylvania is souring on Trump, especially the western part of PA. The workers are realizing that Trump lied to them to get their votes. Who knows? This could be 370 workers plus their spouses and 18 year-old kids going to the polls for Conor Lamb.

191 workers are being let go a week and a half before the special, and they weren't even unionized. Lamb should pounce on this.

And Trump is probably coming next week to brag about how great things are..meanwhile close to 400 people will be out of work. Lamb or some group needs to be up on air, where is the small donor $$ for him?

Lamb needs to air an ad featuring the closing of the mine juxtaposed with Trump's remarks about bringing back coal and how he said there'd be so many coal jobs that miners wouldn't know what to do.

Have to be careful about running too much against Trump in this district. More like 'I'll help these miners find work in green/tech jobs, retraining etc.' 'Revitalize SWPA'. Maybe these people will actually listen now Rs can't blame 'WAR ON COAL'.

The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

Good point.

That's exactly the problem: they want jobs, but not ANY jobs, if i understood correctly. They don't want to undergo retraining, and then - be employed in "green technologies" or IT area. They want COAL jobs, they are accustomed to, and they already have enough skills to do (right now). Who can give them THAT????

No one. The world is changing. If they don't want to change with it, they will be left behind or be forced to move away.

In long-term perspective - of course. But for now - they are still there, still voting, and still angry. Possibly - that's one of the reasons why Appalachia now votes the way it does.

Atlas posters tend to fundamentally misunderstand the voters and assume they are motivated by facts and logic. They're motivated by emotion, tribalism, and their own version of reality. Trump could've personally ordered the closing of that mine on video tape and they'd still say it was fake news, blame Obama/Hillary, and continue to strongly support their god emperor.

Something is happening here:

Yeah, I'm not buying that this poll is accurate given how badly Republicans have fared in all the other special elections so far (WI in particular). Tossup/Tilt D.

Yeah, something is up. Republicans are making their panic a bit too obvious. Worth keeping an eye on.

The Wisconsin special election race probably spooked them. North western Wisconsin is similar to south western Pennsylvania. Saccone has also been really struggling with fundraising and volunteers.

I think this is a $-driven freakout, not a polling driven freakout. The fundamentals favor Saccone, but if he's broke, he could fail.

I wonder if they really just want a big win for Saccone to push back against the blue-wave narrative and underperformance in special elections. Because polling (both national and district) shows that Saccone should win easily.

I agree. Lamb is also the far superior candidate. He's young, good looking, a vet, charismatic, and very intelligent. I can see the many potential reasons why the GOP is freaking out.

Will there be a debate?

Maybe instead of Steyer wasting $$ buying books and pointless impeachment ads he could put his money to good use. And where is the DCCC/DNC?

How so? NW WI swung heavily toward Obama in 2008, SW PA was one of the few places in the country to swing against him.

New York Times says internal polls on both sides report "single-digit race," confirms Republican dog sweat.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/17/us/politics/trump-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html?_r=0

I still believe Republicans will successfully nationalize this and eke out a win even though Saccone sucks and Lamb is Jesus with dimples.

I'm sure we will have another great debate on whether Pelosi should go in the coming weeks. It looks like Pelosi will the main thing they'll tie Lamb to.

Please don't Ossoff this sh!t.

I can believe in single-digit race here, but, most likely, with Republican advantage (say, +7-8)...

In the article above it's mentioned that Lamb raised 550000$ during the 4Q while Saccone raised 200000$.

Yeah after Alabama I'm very confident the various democractic groups understand how to put money into a race subtly

Lamb has said repeatedly he's not voting for Pelosi for Speaker.

Stickied

Lamb released his first TV ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/953991405353013248

It's interesting. He's going on the offensive against Pelosi in that ad. If Democrats win a narrow majority, then I suppose Pelosi will *have* to go, no? Too many Democrats will have made this pledge.

Or they’ll just break it :P

Only Lamb, Ojeda, and Paul Davis have made the pledge to my knowledge. Only one who might be part of a narrow majority is Davis. Lamb and Ojeda would only win in Nov. '18 on a night where Dems are winning 250+ seats.

I'm guessing he loses eastern Westmoreland County and gains parts of the southern Monongahela Valley in eastern Greene and Washington County and western Fayette County, and this would help him marginally. I don't think moving further into Allegheny is in the cards and that would make a real difference. A court-ordered map would look more like an enlarged version of the district Frank Mascara represented 20+ years ago.

I have just googled "Conor Lamb" (I didn't even know that PA-18 has a special election soon) and he looks like a Democratic Mike Naso.

Not at all.

Ban-worthy post.

Freedom ad!

congrats senatour/ gov elect saccone! tho

Seems like fairly boilerplate talking points for a historically Republican district.

He's easy on the eyes. :P

Conor Lamb is the most beautiful Catholic in the history of Pennsylvania politics. I have not been this excited about a candidate in years!

Beautiful Flawless Lambchop

Bold prediction: if Lamb actually wins and manages to hold on until 2022 (a singularly long shot), he'll be a shoo-in to move up and face Toomey.

I disagree. There are better candidates to face Toomey.

This will the huge wave.

Flawless beautiful Lamb time?

Ugh, if the PA SC strikes down Gerrymandering I'll probably be in PA-18. I REALLY want Conor to represent me but it won't happen :(

This race must be so frustrating for Republicans. The Democratic candidate is young, good looking, a veteran and goes around speaking to voters wearing his inoffensive Steelers jacket and talking about how both parties and all leadership is bad. Whereas Republicans have..... some old guy who's a total leadership kiss ass and has no charisma or fundraising skills whatsoever.

Pretty sure that Harry Reid has a machine in his basement that can pump out young, charismatic, good-looking candidates on demand for tough races (Kander, O'Rourke, Perriello, Lamb)

Probably a Republican win in a place where you would expect a Republican win.

Eh, it doesn't really matter. Saccone should have a fairly easy time winning anyways.

Sure, the district is definitely more Republican-leaning than anything, but what I'm saying is that they probably dislike having to spend so much and get so involved defending a seat they really shouldn't be needing to defend.

Why don't you change your nick to Chinese Cookie?

Saccone only up 3


Source (http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/PA-18_Survey__Report.pdf)

No excuse for the DCCC not to get involved then.

Quietly, though. Overnationalization is what killed Ossoff, and if that happens here, in an anti establishment, populist district, the blowback could be worse.

Meh, way too many undecideds. Obviously Lamb is going to get more than 38%. 48-45 would've been a lot more interesting.

Also, I highly doubt Trump is only at 49-47 approval in this district when he's at 40% nationally. And there's no way in hell that Wolf is more popular in the district than Toomey and on the same level as Trump. I'm calling junk poll.

They did it right in Alabama.

I would rather win in a District where the Democrat actually counts as a vote to get Democrats in control of the speaker-ship after the midterms than a District where the Democrat is fine with forcing a power sharing agreement if the Democratic majority is narrow.

Oh heck yes!!! Saccone lead down!

I think Lamb's ad helped.

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Wouldn't it more likely that Pelosi steps down as Dem leader? If it's close, Tim Ryan and others will smell blood and go in for the kill.

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

I'd like his lamb chop Pretty good ad

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?

Well, well, well... we might have a real race here boys and girls.

Still think Lamb loses but it’ll be closer than the PVI suggests it has any reason to be

I wonder if a non-partisan map could actually make this district less competitive. Worth keeping an eye on because the special will be under current lines, so if Lamb does win...

This guy looks like he just finished kindergarten.

Sounds like Roy Moore's type

REALLY want Conor to win! My town is in PA12 and the redistricting will probably put us in PA18.

Didn't see that one coming.

Lamb's got a new ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/955630664426119169

Has the Saccone campaign released anything yet?

This feels like another Doug Jones type candidate in the making (in terms of message and campaign effectiveness). Approve.

Another new ad by Lamb:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5hAlQ2cPQ0

wow. great ad

Wow, how did I miss this poll? +3?!?!

Saw a bunch of Conor Lamb signs today. No sign of Saccone. This guy is running a very quiet campaign.

Sounds like D+1 to me.

Always take anecdotes like this with a grain of salt, hell Saccone could have a huge following in the southern rural areas, but you only are seeing the Lamb suburbs.

On the other hand, Saconnes campaign appears to be a 'this seat is R+11 and Trump won by 20, I can't lose' kind of deal.

Please don't jinx it or get overconfident, you are a better poster than that.

lol, what does overconfidence have to do with the quality of my posts? Anyways, I'm fully aware there's always the chance to lose. I don't expect anything, even out of polls, until the results come in. Unlike many, I learned from 2016.

Congressman Ossof agrees.

Actually, I never thought Ossoff had a lock on the win.

Am feeling cautiously optimistic about this race. Only issue is balancing having enough money to keep Lamb competitive without nationalising it too much.

If Conor Lamb was the candidate in GA-06 he would've won handily, way better in quality. Thinking back I actually think Ossoff was a pretty bad candidate.

I expressed doubts about his candidacy from the very beginning. But most of Democrats and supporers (even on Atlas) loved him by reasons that remain unclear to me, and almost silenced any critics. Result? Well-known.

Saw a car with a few Conor Lamb bumper stickers on it in Pittsburgh this morning. Still no sign of Saccone.

Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

OMFG and we thought the Ossoff attack ad was bad. This was cancerous

That’s a terrible ad between the off key singing and screeching instrument. And the fact that the Lamb has already refused to support Pelosi

Wow. That is absolutely fatuous.

Dear god that ad looks like it was a Middle School Art Project ffs.

FTFY

That ad convinced me to vote for Rick Saccone

The Lamb campaign should air that ad.

This is a pretty damning indictment of the NRCC, if you ask me.

Lol. Look at the comments. Even they are not putting up with this and know how terrible it is.

The critical question is whether this eclipses demon sheep in its awfulness or not.

why are you joking about this?

Damn, that 10 to 1 dislike to like ratio. Sad!

Ah, but would he have won Montana.

This is what happens when you have no actual policy or issue to attack. You literally make up lies, and make a degrading and completely embarrassing ad about an American hero and Marine captain. For shame, for shame.

As others have said, Lamb should air this ad.

Oh my god. When did the GOP get so awful at ads? Like nursery rhymes? Are voters babies now?

That is a very generous overestimation of the American electorate my friend.

The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter. -Winston Churchill

Quote if you logged into youtube just to dislike.

Nah, logged into YouTube all the time, (sane, normal).

()

The ads against Ossoff: he’s young immature, Pelosi puppet, SF values, liberal, doesn’t live in district, lied about national security clearance.

Quist: bad finances, socialist, Pelosi, liberal, gun control

Lamb: Pelosi...?

Is Saccone an establishment Republican or a polarizing Bannonite loon? I don't know very much about that region of PA.

More like Trumpist, but has a streak of Bannonite.

The latter, with a side of being so lazy he legitimately fell asleep in the state legislature once.

So he's a kook who would fail to make the runoff if he ran in my House district (beaten by David Clifford (R-Long Beach, CA) for the second runoff spot)?

Definately, unless Ryan and co. buys him a spot.

Not even Paul Ryan and co. could buy him the second runoff spot. That district is D+13, where Democrats would pick the GOP candidate. Enough Democrats would cross over and handily put Clifford ahead of Saccone.

That's about the sum of it. He's a sleepwalking Trump purist.

This is truly the Troll 2 of attack ads.

Who nominated this Saccone guy?

A political party in decline

Was Saccone nominated in an open or closed primary?

He was nominated by party officials, which ought to tell you something about the PAGOP.

And you can't piss on Troll 2 like that. I won't allow it!

Why wasn't there a primary?

If we apply the yard sign metric to this race....Suckone is finished

Oh, I forgot to tell everyone that I'm hitting the field for Lamb tomorrow.

Did Al Gore win PA-18 under current borders in 2000?

Watch as Lamb wins by >10 points lol

Worst political ad since demon sheep. If the GOP is going to spend 300k on ads like that Lamb has nothing to worry about.

Just some quick napkin math/approximations here:

Obama lost PA-18 by 11 in 2008. Judging by the swing map for 2008 and the population distribution of the district, I'd say Kerry lost by roughly the same amount. The 2004 swing map suggests that Kerry did anywhere from 1-5 points worse than Gore, so that leads me to believe that Bush won PA-18 in 2000 by around 5 points.

Let us know how it goes!

These numbers are pretty close to the truth.  If you go back to the 1980s, Dukakis and even Mondale would have won this district.

Predictit has Saccone at 64c and Lamb at 40c.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3766/Which-party-will-win-the-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Pennsylvania's-18th-district

Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.

Democratic pickup

Predictit is worthless for analysis, I beg everyone to stop with it in analysis.

Trump will be bragging about how the Democratic party is now 0-6 in congressional races, even if Saccone wins by 1 point in a R+11 district.

Interesting how he doesn't include CA-34.

Probably because top 2 all Democratic Party races do not count to him?

Democrats won AL-SEN.

Well, Saccone has the advantage of not being a kiddie diddler.

Don't speak too soon.

I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...

GA-06 was not even a year ago.

I think Lamb wins by 3-5 or something like that. These special elections have been ugly for the GOP so far, and the NRCC doesn’t seem to have its act together.

Even Atlas has a goldfish attention span. Now imagine the general public, half of which doesn't even vote. lol

People have already stopped caring about the government shutdown, which Atlas assured me voters would care deeply about and base their voting decisions on in 2018 and even 2020.

If people cared deeply about government shutdowns, Democrats would have retaken Congress in 1996 and would have kept the Senate/retaken the House in 2014.

BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?

Possibly. But Toomey is probably Safe if democrats win in 2020 (unless there's a realignment of sorts), and probably screwed if Trump wins in 2020.

No way Toomey would win against Lamb. Toomey will be an old man by then. His face already looks like a waterlogged costume stiched at gunpoint

Toomey can easily win if a democrat is in office, unless the democrat is very popular or Toomey does something particularly stupid besides just be far right.

No way he gets past Josh Shapiro.

Saccone's got to be the worst candidate I've ever seen.

It takes a special level of incompetence to blow a seat like PA-18.

Saccone: Challenge accepted!

He's from the wrong part of the state.

^^

Shapiro will most likely run to replace Wolf, IMO

Democrats will pick this seat up.

From your lips to God's ears.

If anyone is looking for Martha Coakley analogies, look no further. We'll see what the result is, but Saccone is surely much more similar to Coakley's generally haplessness than Roy Moore was.

Couldn't say it better myself ;) On a serious note turnout is everything here. If Democrats can mobilize their voters like they did in Alabama they will win.

What? If anything he is from the RIGHT part of the state to take down Toomey.

It is a convention of delegates elected or appointed by the GOP  county committees of the counties in the district.  I think it is one delegate per 1000 votes cast in the last presidential election. 

Not sure, but I think Mr. Phips is probably referring to a Dem primary?

Just heard a Saccone ad on the radio. My god, it was awful. They are really trying to peddle this pathetic "Nancy and her lamb" smear. It then went onto some hardcore heavy-metal background music and bragged about how Saccone tortured terrorists and that's why he should be a congressman. He deserves to lose this race in a landslide.

L0L

I'm guessing he means that SW Pennsylvania lacks the kind of Democratic power base he needs to have in a Democratic primary.

It's Alabama all over again

How is Trump going to spin a loss in PA-18? Remember what he said when Gillespie lost? 'Ed worked hard, but he didn't embrace me. If you embrace Trump, we will win a massive landslide in November'. What the hell is he going to say about a sycophant like Saccone loosing?

Rick Saccone?....never heard of the guy."

Saccone is going to win easily.

Like your racist friend Ed Gillespie and your favorite pedophile Roy Moore. Lmao. Lamb's probably winning now.

Obama was young and inexperienced. In today's politics inexperience is electable.

It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.

I looked at a sample of 4 counties in the far west of the state and 2017 turnout there was about half of 2016 and on par with 2013. Given population growth and the focus on the race I'd say that indicates weak turnout.

Yeah. Right now, this district looks like Virginia minus NoVa. That's my concern. I hope I'm proven wrong since it was easy in Virginia for Dems not to contest those parts of Virginia.

No, it wouldn't. Regardless, there are no parallels between Gillespie and Saccone or Lamb and Northam or Virginia and PA.

They're both Appalachia but SWVA is more Southern Appalachia and SWPA is more Midwestern Appalachia. And isn't PA-18 more urban? Suburbs make up a sizable share of the district.

It's overwhelmingly Suburban, including some inner ring Pittsburgh suburbs.

EDIT: just double-checked the maps. It also has a lot of Rural and small-town areas in the Southwest corner of the state, but even some of those are for commuters to the Greater Pittsburgh area

It is basically small towns and older suburbs.  The suburbs have not been fashionable since the 70's.

Some sections are historically Republican.  I've referred to Ligonier as "East Prussia."  Yes, I grew up in that area. 

Westmoreland went Republican in 90's or 00's.  The part of the county that is Democratic is in the 12th. 

Politico has a 2nd Republican dog sweat article!

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/pennsylvania-republicans-special-election-389964

All I've read is the headline.

On edit: it's not a dog sweat article. It's a "here's how we sent the cavalry in because Saccone sucks" article including ancedotes of incredible canvassing in icy weather.

Saccone and Lamb seem like respectively really bad and really good candidates.

If there was ever a chance for a Democrat to win this seat as currently drawn, this is it.

I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.

Why is it that Republicans bothered defending GA-06 and this one? I mean there are hundreds of House seats and losing a few House seats won't make a difference.

Agreed, but you can just smell the fear here and it's wonderful.

Did anyone else know that Rick Saccone's wife is asian?

I don't see why all the republicans are alarmed by Saccone. He seem like a decent candidate and decent human being, I of course support Lamb, but strategically wise I would give him and his campaign a B, I would give his decent human being rating about a B-, and I would rate his politics from my view as about a D. Not the best, but I don't see why the GOP is panicking.

keep feasting on the moral victories!!!!

Doug Jones says hi.

Not to mention all the state legislative seats Dems have won in special elections, particularly in Virginia.

Another fantastic ad by the Lamb campaign. This guy is really authentic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts)

Pretty good, but he has to train himself not to steal little glances at the camera when he's doing a ubiquitous "intimate conversation with someone in his living room" advertisement.

My biggest complaint of course is the utter lack of recorder music. What were they thinking?

That whole proudly torturing people gives him a significantly lower human being grade than B- in my book.

Not really a biggie in my book there, most of those people deserve it.

Your use of the words "deserve" and, particularly, "most" are..... disheartening.

Some terrorists and thugs just deserve punishment, it just does not work, so that's why torture should not be used, I mostly agree with this article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/8833108/Torture-is-not-wrong-it-just-doesnt-work-says-former-interrogator.html

Words like "torture" and "thug" are a flashing yellow light for this thread to go off track from a discussion of this specific Congressional race to a very heated and emotional discussion of a marginally related topic. Let's try to stick to the specifics of this election and not get sidetracked into volatile issues.

Didn't notice it at first. Were you lost in Beautiful Flawless Lamb's eyes?

I am sorry that I do not embody the characteristics of an sjw, and do not think enhanced interrogation technics are immoral, albeit ineffective, and that is a legitimate and arguable position. I argued it respectfully, and all, but I see that you may not be keen on civil discourse on legitimate issues, that's fine. I hope you find your peace too.

He just warned people not to go off topic. It's not that serious.

He shows signs of possibly being bereft of the potential wherewithal to tolerate and allow viewpoints that differ from his own. It is quite disheartening, and I hope that he may have a change of heart in the future, and take a alternate perspective.

It doesn’t matter, this isn’t the board for that discussion kind of discussion.  Can we please move on?

Um, Brittain, you are literally one of the best mods around and always have been, but are you SERIOUSLY implying that one of the candidates in this race having committed torture and proudly defended it - - forgive me if I don't use pussy words like enhanced interrogation techniques - - is somehow NOT directly and inseparably related to that candidates Fitness for office? ??? I mean come on, if we are going to discuss Donald Trump's fleecing the gullible with Trump University, shouldn't a congressional candidates Unapologetic use of torture on prisoners is more than a little relevant? That this is somehow a "distraction" to the thread rather than directly related?!?

Sorry, but you this one time simply wrong , wrong, wrong. While bagel and I obviously have strong disagreements about the use of torture , he is dead right that it's directly related to this election on which the thread is based

Thank you for standing for productive civil discourse on important issues and tolerance of other viewpoints. It is very refreshing in times such as these.

Hey all,

I don't consider it the moderator's place to prevent discussion of relevant topics, so based on the response, I'm not going to stand in the way of discussions of torture as an issue if it is a point of disagreement between Saccone and Lamb.

My experience as a moderator is that discussions which get into enthusiasm for violence and vengeance against individuals, whether politicians, wannabe politicians, or classes of people, don't go well. This has happened with people like President Trump and Chelsea Manning and it just blows everything up and kills off other discussion. If we can avoid that fate and avoid overheated discussion, it won't get moderated.

Please sir, I humbly entreat you to travel the path of honesty. It is a fact that someone deleted two unreported posts of mine last evening on this thread on the issue, respectfully arguing and backing up with sources, the case that torture against bad people is not immoral, rather just ineffective.

Is Lamb accepting SuperPAC money?

At the risk of derailing this (screw you Brittain :P), if you--correctly--acknowledge torturing "mostly" bad people is ineffective, then how is it not immoral? Surely the only possible argument for it is its utility in some people's minds picturing a "Jack Bauer--24" scenario where a new 9/11 is prevented at the last moment by a dedicated government agent who plays by his own rules breaking the individual fingers of terrorists until they scream out where the detonator is hidden, etc. etc. etc.

Without that scenario, which you and I both recognize is Hollywood fantasy and contradicted by actual intelligence interrogators, what possible moral justification remains for the use of such tactics?

Oh, and thus how isn't Saccone a poophead? (/obligatory reference to the thread subject)

I view ethics and strategy as two different entities, and they don't cross in my mind barring extremes. Taking the issue of enhanced interrogation methods on bad people: for me, the ethics are fine, nothing morally/ethically wrong with it for me, strategy: there are better ways, its stupid, that's why we should not do it.

IMO Brittain is 100% right. Discussions on torture etc. very rarely stay on topic and very easily devolve into personal attacks. That being said, the fact that Saccone is very much in favor of it could be a significant campaign issue. Obviously Lamb will spin him as heartless and evil and he will spin it as being willing to defend this country against terrorists.

The difference between the candidates' social media presence is funny. Not even the fact that Lamb has 10x the followers, but Saccone's just tweeting how wage increases for CVS and Chipotle are so good for PA-18 (lol) whereas Lamb's talking health care, social security, engaging with voters.

Saccone is horrible.

Interesting note, but I read a tweet that the PA GOP moved Lamb's home into Doyle's PA-14 in their redraw map.

GOP must be sweatin' like dogs. They also have 2nd place Trump doing a rally for Succone

On the other hand, Biden's going to do a rally too.

Wolf would probably veto that...and it also wouldn't go into effect until later in the year.

Wolf's going to veto it.

Hopefully.

Definitely, but it also shows the Pennsylvania GOP is seriously scared lamb is going to win this

It seems like Saccone has been heavier with expenses than most legislators in Pennsylvania, although I don't see anything illegal here.

https://theintercept.com/2018/02/01/rick-saccone-congress-pennsylvania/

Newest CLF ad up, it seems the GOP has decided to quit it with the Sheep references:

https://youtu.be/0KTO83fyz_M

Still a pretty terrible ad. They are attacking him on a tax bill he couldn't vote on.

You'd think watching that, that Lee Atwater was still alive making attack ads and we were still in the 80s. What's next...."Libruhl Conor Lamb was live when Willie Horton raped and killed"

The GOP is such a joke

I disagree with like 85% of the stuff in this ad, but at least they finally made a somewhat alright attack ad with some semblance of issues, and without getting personal for once. Maybe if they keep it up, by next week their ads will have real facts actually RELEVANT to Lamb.

So, the GOP is such a joke.

Explain how such a joke has the offices it does.  Is there a bigger joke out there?
Or, how did the GOP joke beat the Democrat joke in most of the swing states in 2016.
Or, how come the Democrat joke did not pass immigration reform in 2009 or 2010.

The actual joke may be that most of the public may not pay any attention to ads.

Opposition to Obama and then Clinton, not actually standing for something. Now they're reaping the whirlwind.

Hatred for women and minorities.

It seems like a stretch to call being an Assistant State Attorney "working in the Obama administration."

The GOP is finished. They aren't coming back from Trump. Lopsided control of state legislatures are a sign of an impending realignment, so enjoy this year. It will be the last we'll have to hear from the party that nominated a sexual assaulter with a 5 decade history of conning people.

So, the Democrats will use the pendulum to swing back by being against Trump.

If you think Medicare for everyone will get you anywhere in the long run, just start explaing how you are  going to pay for it.

A major factor in Trump’s election was actually his immigration proposals.

This probably needs to go to a different threa.  But there were also Obama’s lies about Obamacare.  By the way did he ever heal the oceans?

Oh boy, the Roy Moore fanboy is back.

Let’s say that with American torture the victim is still alive at the end. I agree that rmuch the evidence from torture is not valid. But some maybe.

Instead of torture Obama went full into killing targets with drones with lots of collateral damage to innocents.  Tell me how that is better than torture? I actually do not object to this process.  But if you object to things like water boarding in limited cases, you should be opposed to unlimited drone killings.

>ok, rescind your support donald trump, he doubled drone strickes

Bill Clinton?

So Saccone will probably win this seat pretending that Lamb is an open-borders globalist (even though he's waffling on DACA) who will be Nancy Pelosi's puppet (even though he's explicitly advocated for her replacement).

Why again do Democrats without an established resume ever tack right against these slimebuckets?

No...when Bill Clinton was elected...he was a sexual assaulter with a 3 decade long history of conning people....Trump.is the one with 5 decades

Can you read?  I said I did not object to the process.  I merely pointed out that if you are adamantly opposed to water boarding it seems you would be opposed to such indiscriminate killings with the collateral damage.

From the Daily Beast, an unexpected source, there is evidence that the allies in WWII used torture, a/k/a “enhancedinterrogation techniques”  to gain valuable information:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-torture-helped-win-wwii

This article below seems to say torture does not really work.  But admits some of the evidence leading to Osma Bin Ladin and his killing may have come from partners who used torture:

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/jan/26/does-torture-work-and-is-it-worth-the-cost-donald-trump

I am not sure there is a definitive answer. 

Let me ask is sleep deprivation torture.

Thought this was a thread about a special election in PA-18.

King Lear's getting a new roommate.

This is what we were saying in 2016 too. Do not underestimate the stupidity and deplorability of Americans who knew that they were getting a sexual assaulter with a five-decade history of conning people and who fantasizes sleeping with his daughter when they elected him regardless. Democrats have to have a message other than Trump is a bad man.

I hope you're right, but I have very low expectations for this country after the atrocity that it committed in 2016. And don't forget that Trump's boss Vladimir will still be interfering with the midterms and trying to get more Republicans elected since they are the party that will abet him in destroying the country.  

Do we think Putin is interfering in PA-18? I don't know if we've seen any sign of it yet.

Do you think the state of the oceans will be a major issue in the PA-18 special election? They are in a certain sense; the Democratic party's opposition to coal should hamper Lamb in this seat, I would think. Does anyone know how he is handling this issue gracefully since it has decimated the Dems in Appalachia?

What are Saccone's and Lamb's positions on drone strikes in the PA-18 special election? Since both have relatively recent military service, they may have informed opinions.

Lol. Even if the GOP is completely BTFO in 2018 and/or 2020, they'll rebound again within one or two elections. Trump will be a distant memory by then. Such is the nature of American politics.

I don't know whether to be happy that there's a poll coming, or unhappy because it's Gravis.

Final?

50-47 (D) hold

Don’t feed the troll, this is part of his shtick.

In any case, Lamb is favored in this race. I think he wins by 3-5.

Check Gravis’ poll rating on 538. They have dramatically improved.

DCCC isn't making another buy. Nothing suggest that Ds view this race as competitive.

Ok Lamb's going to win or come within 5 points. Calling it.

Tossup.

Lean R. Saccone by 4%.

Lamb is an amazing politician. I am always impressed by people who aren't moderate that can convince voters that they are. (I.e. Sherrod Brown, Marco Rubio, Conor Lamb)

How is Lamb 'not moderate'?

Come on

For me, this sort of thing is beyond frustrating because this is exactly what Larry Hogan (who is a very hardcore Conservative Republican), the Governor of the state I live in is doing.

Poll tomorrow

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

In VA-GOV, they consistently showed a close race (tied to a small Northam lead).

They had Gillespie +1 than Northam +2 in the final few weeks of VA-Gov. Fail.

Their Alabama poll was very good, with a 46-46 tie at a 2017 electorate and 48-45 Jones in a Democratic turnout surge.

They had Murphy +14 in NJ, very well done.

Overall good, and I loved their turnout model idea in Alabama.

I expect to see Saccone up 7. Everyone will immediately panic for absolutely no reason.

Same

The fact that this race is even competitive is a testament to how unfavorable this environment is for Republicans. It'd be nice if Democrats won it, but it's not really necessary, and it's not exactly a district Democrats could expect to hold for long at all (perhaps not even past 2018).

All this attention paid to it has set Republicans up for another round of gloating about how they managed to hold a normally safe R+11 district, completely oblivious to how low their standard of success has been lowered in the Trump era.

Even if Conor Lamb won, media sites like The Hill will still ignore it and try to find a reason to believe the blue wave is "dead".

If Conor  Lamb wins it’ll be because of these treee  factors ranked  in order of importance:

1. Saccone’s incompetence/potential corruption
2. Conor Lamb’s exceptional campaigning ability
3. National environment

That turnout model thing smacked me of hedging bets at first, but I’d be interested to see how it holds up when other pollsters do it for other races

Gotta disagree with you there, I think it'll be:

1. National environment (without a historically toxic environment across the board for Republicans, this seat wouldn't even be remotely competitive even with everything else; I'd argue that this is far and away the most important factor.  Honestly, Saccone should be winning by like 15% without breaking a sweat even in a Democratic-leaning national environment, IIRC Trump won this decidedly WWC district by about 20 points in 2016)

2. Saccone's general incompetence as a candidate is what may in the context of the national environment may be what pushes Lamb just over the finish line, but the national environment is what made this race close enough that its not inconcievable for that 1-2% Saccone doesn't get due to lazyness/incompetance to be the deciding factor.  Anything within single-digits here should worry Republicans and if Saccone wins by 5% or less, then that's still a disaster for the GOP in terms of what it suggests about the midterms.  It'd certainly indicate that the "Trump/GOP rebound" narrative is...well...completely baseless.  This isn't like the Alabama Senate race where Republicans can just write it off as being about the candidate if they lose.  Saccone didn't help, but any Republicans who think this seat is in play primarily b/c of candidate quality are only fooling themselves.  

3. Well...actually that's about it.  I disagree pretty strongly with you about Lamb being some sort of exceptional candidate.  I mean, he's not bad or anything, but he's also nothing to write home about; he's simply an average candidate running a reasonably competent campaign.  Honestly, he's not even the strongest Democratic candidate in the district and IIRC was like the 4th or 5th (might've even been 6th) choice to run here.  Lamb only became the party's choice after all the top-tier recruits said they weren't interested and there's a reason for that: he's not a top-tier candidate (Lamb is on the weaker end of generic b-list, but Saccone is running such a lazy campaign that he makes Lamb look like a first-rate candidate by comparison).  Again, there's nothing wrong with Lamb per-say, but someone like Brandon Neuman or Matt H. Smith would have been a much stronger recruit.  

I am really upset about Lamb's exclusive and lobbyist filled fundraising events, while claiming to stand against this. I hope that he does not pull any more shenanigans like this in the future.

Monmouth Poll.

Saccone          49
Lamb              46

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_021518/ (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_021518/)

Oh sh*t.

Com'on Lamb!!! You can do it!!!!

At this point, if I had to say who would win, it would be Lamb.

Gotta love that we don't have to change the title

Now we must ask ourselves whether this is Saccone blowing it because let's face it: he's an awful candidate, or it's because Lamb is a super strong candidate. I'm leaning towards it being a little bit of both.

It's pretty obvious that Lamb is no Ossoff.

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

This is just showing how godawful Morning Consult is. If Trump has a 46% approval rating in the state, his candidate would be running away with this. It's a southwestern CD for crying out loud. The poll clearly shows a lot of this is a backlash against Trump.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

People like Conor Lamb give me so much hope for our party. I really want him to win.

And Linda Belcher. The New Hope.

Well...I can actually see Lamb winning by 3 or 4 points. I think Monmouth has been a little off in their recent polling.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

I agree

Frustrated by the DCCC on this no reason they should be sitting this out. And just a fraction of Steyer’s $$ spent on those stupid impeachment ads could make a difference here.

On the flip side the DCCC might be staying out on purpose so The GOP can't nationlize the race ala GA-06

An idea I've seen floated on Twitter is that the DCCC may be waiting to see what the final PA maps look like in a few days.  They might not want to invest a lot in trying to help Lamb win a seat that he'd be likely to lose in November (or on the flip side, might be an easier gain for the Democrats then).

This makes me think internal polling doesn't have the race as close as Monmouth pegged it at. I'm still optimistic, but idk. Trump's approval and the generic ballot in that poll can't exist in the same universe as the generic ballot polling and approval rating trend we're seeing right now. Unless there is an absolutely massive turnout differential.

Trump bails

Smart. He knows he's going to sink Saccone. His disapproval rating shouldn't be 48% in South Western PA.

Considering that this is Atlas, your second sentence seems a tad redundant.

Saccone would be one of the better Republicans in congress, it would be tolerable.

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ehhhhh idk about that

Why? Was she more Conservative to your liking?

No, Lamb is plenty conservative, but I believe she has a better resume, does not hang out with big donors as much, and has held elected office, winning in a big Trump county. She's also not tied to the Obama admin, and I think she would rack up the margins in the Allegheny part of the district with moderate suburbanites and women very well, would do about as well as Lamb in the rest of the district aka losing it with a respectable margin, and then either keep Westmoreland close, or narrowly winning it, allowing her to win the district by 4-5 points. Westmoreland is a big and important part of this district, and I feel as though Cerilli brings to the table doing a lot better here than Lamb would, and I think she would do just as well in the Allegheny portion, due to raising up the female vote, and moderate suburbanites and suburban women. And its self explanatory that both of them would keep the losses to respectable margins elsewhere in the district.

And Doug Jones would've won if he was pro-life.

Yes, probably by 5-6 pts.

Ok, so with a different candidate we'd be running 16 points ahead of the district's PVI? Based on what? 

The power of wishful thinking.

I just said it, typical one liner.

This Monmouth poll is similar to my early prediction from about a month ago ...

bumping my prediction up to 54-44 sacone, as republicans are bringing in millions

Don't have the link but Lamb has came out against any further gun control

He has to to have any hope of winning this seat.

What the fu**

For a guy who is relying on Dem enthusiasm and turnout, this is a horrible move.

Eh, that won’t hurt him at all in this district sadly.

a guy has gotta do what he has gotta do to win I guess

Yikes. Oh well. Pre-emptive defense for the eventual gun discussion in Monday's debate.

The only way that Lamb is hurt by his comments is when Nancy Smith, a 54 year old social worker from Arlington or San Francisco or Bethesda or Evanston or Belmont, who tweets #resist on twitter and goes to her local indivisible meetings every week, decides not to donate to him. It's a politically savvy position for his district. Not a politically savvy position for accumulating a massive amount of out-of-state donations, a la Jonny from Georgia.

Even background checks barely passed in NV and lost in Maine, Dems hoping for gains by running hard on gun control will be sorely disappointed.

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.

Yeah, shame on us for not wanting more kids to get shot up in school.

Are we forgetting that Roy Moore has decades upon decades of bad behaviour and statements that sunk him?

px's post has nothing to do with Moore.

I am surprised Trump nixed campaigning in this district.

Lamb can win this if Trump's approval drops even 5% between now and the election.  As it is, I think it will be a bare bones Republican hold in what should be a safe district, sort of the reverse of what happened with PA-12 in 2010.

He already got his ego burned twice in Alabama.

Many cultural conservatives say they're pro-life, but in the end, enough of them can stomach voting for a pro-choicer. 

Guns are a different story.  There are a HELL of a lot of gun owners, and they will view gun control as affecting them personally.

Conor is one of them, through the big donors and exclusive events, this gun grandstanding, his refusal to take strong stances on many issues, I have lost faith in him. Cerilli should have gotten the nom. Oh well. I don't want any of the three now. If I was a voting resident, I would not show up, and if I was forced to, I might just pick Saccone (probably not, still probably Lamb if I had to) to stand against these kinds of candidates.

You're a proud supporter of Joe Manchin.  Doesn't Lamb have to act a lot like Manchin to win this district?

That's peak Bagel. "I would vote for the Republican... I don't live in the district though... actually I would vote for the Democrat."

Yes, I am a big Manchin fan. Joe stands up for what he believes in, and takes definite stances on most issues. He was not afraid to stand with Hillary, he was not afraid to buck the NRA when he saw fit, he was not afraid to vote for the tax bill. You name an issue, and odds are that Joe has an honest and strong stance on opinions. As for the supposed waffling for the cameras, I can definitely see where people are coming from, but that is just being friendly with people who want a picture with him. You see how acitivists of all different colors walk up to senators, as seen with certain health care and disability advocacy groups go up to Manchin on capital hill, and probably some others with the opposite view go up again. And many of them want pictures with the senator when they meet with them. What are you going to say, no? Just because you meet with somebody does not mean that you agree with them. Look, I have worn kippahs to bat and bar mitzvahs, I have had been nice to people in authority positions in my life that I dislike, I have gone to both republican and democratic meetings and clapped at each. Does that make me jewish, or like people because I am nice to them, or a Republican? No. They are simply formalities, denying photo ops is usually a no no. Lamb waffles on everything, uh well ya know I'm pro life but I respect the law of the land, sure violence in schools is a problem and looking at gun issues could be beneficial but let's not burden the gun lobby too much more, yeah I stand against big money but I hang out with Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign finance chair, yeah I'm a democrat but forget that I am and just know that I'm against Pelosi harder than the GOP, etc etc. These are all Conor Lamb things. Also this race is getting nationalized and ya know no es bueno.

()

Sorry, yeah I did not phrase it well :P. Meant to say that if I was a voting resident I would not even show up, and if I was forced to, I would consider Saccone just to push back against the local dems for nominating Lamb, but being a solid dem, I'd probably rebound for Lamb in the end anyways.

Manchin is not afraid go stand up and say that he backed Hillary, got with Toomey to try for gun control, slam Pence hard, say he is a proud democrat. Lamb weaves in and out and tries to ignore that he is a dem.

The difference is that Manchin is an incumbent with a long history with voters. Most voters in WV know Joe over his career has been pro-gun and can forgive him for backing some gun reform measures. Lamb doesn't have that connection with voters he's starting with scratch so its best to stick with the standard position for this type of district.

Bagel isn't wrong about his establishment connections (http://freebeacon.com/politics/conor-lamb-bashes-special-interests-allows-fundraise/) but he's not taking any corporate or PAC money, so will he really do their bidding in DC or not? Also on what issues Conor Lamb has actually flip flopped on? Most people are somewhere in between pro-life and pro-choice, so I don't think his abortion stance is that problematic. I actually agree with you on the broader point that far too many Democrats trying to weave in and out of crap though Conor Lamb is less guilty of this than the infamous 2014 Kentucky Senate nominee who refused to say whether she voted for Obama or not or said 1996 Democratic nominee for president who sounded like a Republican on the debate stage.   

Bagel can you stop defecating on this thread please?

Really?
Because all these years we are told that "Protecting the Rights of the Unborn" is THE issue for social conservatives,

I have a feeling this will be another 51-49% heartbreaker for Democrats similar to GA-06.

There were socially conservative Democrats who were anti-abortion, I'm pretty sure of, who didn't even reach 40% across the South while Jones was already hitting 40% in the polls before Moore got exposed for the awful human being that he was (and still is).

Republican politicians aren't serious about the abortion issue....if they really were then they would of had the 32 state legislatures they control call for a Constitutional Amendment to ban abortion...but not a single one has.