Atlas Forum

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Hatman 🍁 on January 09, 2018, 02:12:31 pm



Title: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 09, 2018, 02:12:31 pm
Nothing scheduled so far, but the following seats are vacant:

Federal:
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord,QC
(Outremont, QC will be vacated later this year)

Provincial:
Kindersley, SK
Melfort, SK
Kelowna West, BC
(Swift Current, SK will be vacated soon)

No major municipal by-elections on the horizon that I know of.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018
Post by: mileslunn on January 09, 2018, 03:18:47 pm
Nothing scheduled so far, but the following seats are vacant:

Federal:
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord,QC
(Outremont, QC will be vacated later this year)

Provincial:
Kindersley, SK
Kelowna West, BC

No major municipal by-elections on the horizon that I know of.

Federal:

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord:  While all four parties in the house of commons have won this seat in the last 25 years, barring some major changes in polling numbers in Quebec, I suspect the Liberals will hold this.  Who comes in second and with what percentage should be interesting.

Outremont:  Most likely a Liberal pickup although this is one of the more favourable seats towards the NDP in terms of its history and demographics so if the NDP is able to show they are still relevant in Quebec, this is one they need to win, so favours Liberals but NDP win at least plausible.

Provincial:

Kindersley: Is a very safe Saskatchewan Party seat so expect they will probably hold this albeit by a much smaller margin than in the last general election, so it will be interesting how much things tighten here.  Even in the 1991 NDP landslide they didn't win this thus why I don't expect them to pick this up, but I do expect they will do a lot better than they have in the past few elections.

Kelowna West: Very safe BC Liberal riding so expect the BC Liberals to easily hold this although numbers will be interesting.  Even if the Greens don't put up a candidate and the BC Conservatives put up one I doubt that would be enough to allow the NDP to pick this up.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018
Post by: Njall on January 09, 2018, 07:41:50 pm
On Elections Saskatchewan's website (http://www.elections.sk.ca/workers/job-application/), they've stated that they are also prepping for by-elections in Swift Current and Melfort.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 09, 2018, 08:27:57 pm
On Elections Saskatchewan's website (http://www.elections.sk.ca/workers/job-application/), they've stated that they are also prepping for by-elections in Swift Current and Melfort.

D'oh!

Swift Current isn't vacant yet, as Brad Wall is still Premier, but he will resign after the SP leadership race.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018
Post by: mileslunn on January 09, 2018, 08:47:26 pm
Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018
Post by: Jeppe on January 10, 2018, 03:17:36 pm
Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018
Post by: mileslunn on January 10, 2018, 04:01:17 pm
Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.

It's only 15,000 people so pretty small, usually NDP only starts winning in cities over 30,000 like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert.  Also the southern parts of Saskatchewan near the US border have always tended to go for parties on the right no matter what.  In some ways their politics is more like North Dakota/Montana than the rest of Saskatchewan.  True the NDP will probably do a lot better in Swift Current and if they had two right wing parties they could win it much like Medicine Hat (I highly doubt the NDP will hold Medicine Hat in 2019, Lethbridge is the only city they might hold as they have the university).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018
Post by: lilTommy on January 10, 2018, 04:35:20 pm
Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.

It's only 15,000 people so pretty small, usually NDP only starts winning in cities over 30,000 like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert.  Also the southern parts of Saskatchewan near the US border have always tended to go for parties on the right no matter what.  In some ways their politics is more like North Dakota/Montana than the rest of Saskatchewan.  True the NDP will probably do a lot better in Swift Current and if they had two right wing parties they could win it much like Medicine Hat (I highly doubt the NDP will hold Medicine Hat in 2019, Lethbridge is the only city they might hold as they have the university).

In SASK, the NDP up until the 99 election (these were won in 95) held seats in the south, including Swift Current. Others included Weyburn-Big Muddy, Esetvan, Indian head-Milestone. Now that's approaching 20 years ago but in politics, that's relatively recent. But I agree, SASK is not the same place I think.
I don't see Melford or Kindersley really going NDP unless there is a huge shift, or a second strong conservative candidate running to split the vote. I can see Swift Current going NDP though, of any of them that would be the NDP target, for bragging rights alone... for the other two, it will be how much vote CAN the NDP win, which I think will indicate the overall trend in the province. If the NDP can pull in upwards of 30%, that's gov't territory if that becomes a provincial trend.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018
Post by: Njall on January 10, 2018, 04:49:29 pm
Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.

It's only 15,000 people so pretty small, usually NDP only starts winning in cities over 30,000 like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert.  Also the southern parts of Saskatchewan near the US border have always tended to go for parties on the right no matter what.  In some ways their politics is more like North Dakota/Montana than the rest of Saskatchewan.  True the NDP will probably do a lot better in Swift Current and if they had two right wing parties they could win it much like Medicine Hat (I highly doubt the NDP will hold Medicine Hat in 2019, Lethbridge is the only city they might hold as they have the university).

Re: Medicine Hat, the urban riding is disappearing next election, as the city will be split between two “rurban” ridings (Brooks-Medicine Hat and a redrawn Cypress-Medicine Hat), so the NDP certainly won’t be winning here next time.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018
Post by: Jeppe on January 10, 2018, 04:53:51 pm
A uniform swing to match the latest by-election result (that implied a popular vote tie), would have the results pegged as

Swift Current
65% - Sask Party
30% - NDP

Kindersley
52% - Sask Party
23% - NDP
17% - Right-wing independent challenger

Melfort
60% - Sask Party
34% - NDP

Swift Current will probably swing more dramatically than the rest, due to the previous incumbent being such a transcendent figure in the city (I would know, I lived there for a couple of years).

Also, expect Indian Head-Milestone to be vacated for Alanna Koch if she won, she lives in the riding and Don McMorris, the shamed former Deputy Premier is the MLA for that seat.

Indian Head-Milestone
60% - Sask Party
39% - NDP


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018
Post by: DL on January 10, 2018, 05:04:53 pm
There may be a very interesting byelection in The Battlefords in the coming year as well and that would be a genuine SK swing seat.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 17, 2018, 01:06:09 pm
Kelowna West by-election will be February 14.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on January 17, 2018, 04:47:58 pm
Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: Poirot on January 18, 2018, 06:10:14 pm
For the federal Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election, the Conservative candidate will be Richard Martel. He is a hockey coach who coached the Chicoutimi team in the Quebec Junior League.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel (http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel)

People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

For the Bloc, Mario Gagnon is thinking about running. He is a firefighter involved in the collect and repair of toys for kids. He lost a nomination in the past to run for the PQ.
 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: 136or142 on January 18, 2018, 07:17:17 pm
Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.

I think the obvious choice if Diane Watts wins the leadership would be for Rich Coleman to open up his seat for her.

1.Apparently he didn't really want to run again in 2017 anyway.

2.It would be a graceful way for him to leave politics after his graceless stint as interim leader.

3.Langley Township is not quite the neighboring riding of the Surrey area, but it's not far away either

4.It's a safe Liberal seat

5.It probably makes more sense for Diane Watts to hold a seat in the Greater Vancouver area after Christy Clark's four years of 'the B.C Liberal war on Greater Vancouver' than to represent a riding in the Interior.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: 136or142 on January 18, 2018, 07:19:07 pm
For the federal Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election, the Conservative candidate will be Richard Martel. He is a hockey coach who coached the Chicoutimi team in the Quebec Junior League.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel (http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel)

People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

For the Bloc, Mario Gagnon is thinking about running. He is a firefighter involved in the collect and repair of toys for kids. He lost a nomination in the past to run for the PQ.
 

Any update on Dany Morin for the NDP?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on January 18, 2018, 08:58:42 pm
Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.

I think the obvious choice if Diane Watts wins the leadership would be for Rich Coleman to open up his seat for her.

1.Apparently he didn't really want to run again in 2017 anyway.

2.It would be a graceful way for him to leave politics after his graceless stint as interim leader.

3.Langley Township is not quite the neighboring riding of the Surrey area, but it's not far away either

4.It's a safe Liberal seat

5.It probably makes more sense for Diane Watts to hold a seat in the Greater Vancouver area after Christy Clark's four years of 'the B.C Liberal war on Greater Vancouver' than to represent a riding in the Interior.

Probably not a bad idea.  I think the main reason though many BC Liberals would be concerned about this is it gives the NDP an extra seat, but realistically I cannot see the government falling before 2019 probably much later.  The other possibility is to ask Stephanie Cadieux or Marvin Hunt to step aside is those are actually Surrey ridings and in the case of Stephanie Cadieux that is a very safe BC Liberal riding.  Marvin Hunt's was in the past but changing demographics make it somewhat less so as well as the old boundaries of Surrey-Cloverdale were much more BC Liberal friendly than the current ones.  Still as a popular former mayor of Surrey and if she was leader I suspect she could win either of those.  I excluded Surrey-White Rock as the MLA there is a rookie so doubt she will step aside.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 18, 2018, 09:46:52 pm
Will be a real snoozer as an easy BC Liberal win.  That being said smart choice in date by Horgan since if Diane Watts wins the BC Liberal leadership race, it will be too late to change candidates so she will have to ask someone else to step aside for her thus giving the NDP more leeway.  Had it been called for March, there would be enough time for Ben Stewart to step down as BC Liberal candidate and let Diane Watts run here.  Off course if any of the other four (note Sam Sullivan I am not including as he has zero chance of winning and I say this as someone who lives in his riding) this will be a non-issue as all the others already have seats.

3.Langley Township is not quite the neighboring riding of the Surrey area, but it's not far away either


His riding does in fact border Surrey.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: MaxQue on January 18, 2018, 10:50:32 pm
For the federal Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election, the Conservative candidate will be Richard Martel. He is a hockey coach who coached the Chicoutimi team in the Quebec Junior League.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel (http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel)

People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

For the Bloc, Mario Gagnon is thinking about running. He is a firefighter involved in the collect and repair of toys for kids. He lost a nomination in the past to run for the PQ.
 

Any update on Dany Morin for the NDP?

Singh is visiting Chicoutimi on the 24th, we might get more information then.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: Poirot on January 22, 2018, 10:49:32 pm
Someone is seeking the NDP nomination in Chicoutimi. Eric Dubois who works for the CSN union. He lost the nomination race in Lac-Saint-Jean in 2015 but ran for the party in the 2007 by-election in Roberval-Lac-St-Jean and in 2006 and 2004.

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/eric-dubois-souhaite-etre-candidat-du-npd-a25af6880f12ec9935391f883f416ca3 (https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/eric-dubois-souhaite-etre-candidat-du-npd-a25af6880f12ec9935391f883f416ca3)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 24, 2018, 01:59:15 pm
Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat in Cumberland South, as well as the leadership of the Nova Scotia Tories.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 24, 2018, 02:35:58 pm
Because of sexual harassment charges. (https://twitter.com/larochecbc/status/956244310382571520)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on January 24, 2018, 02:47:59 pm
Cumberland South was until recently a PC stronghold where they usually topped 60% and sometimes even 70%, but in recent elections it has become a lot more competitive so a Liberal pick up is definitely possible especially if they have a strong candidate.  Could also stay PC and in fact the next PC leader is not part of the caucus might be a good riding to run in.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 24, 2018, 03:03:27 pm
Cumberland South was until recently a PC stronghold where they usually topped 60% and sometimes even 70%, but in recent elections it has become a lot more competitive so a Liberal pick up is definitely possible especially if they have a strong candidate.  Could also stay PC and in fact the next PC leader is not part of the caucus might be a good riding to run in.

Before 1993, the riding was split in two (Cumberland West and Cumberland Centre). Cumberland Centre voted Liberal continuously from 1974 to 1993. Cumberland Centre included Springhill, a former coal mining town (famous for the Springhill mining disaster) which still votes Liberal to this day.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 24, 2018, 03:14:58 pm
Springhill is an interesting place, it is the largest community in the riding, and yet it is no longer an incorporated community, as it was forced to be absorbed by the county in 2015 due to financial constraints. The town has been in steep decline since the last coal mines closed in the 1970s. The town's population peaked in 1956 at 7K, but now has just 3000 people.

Springhill's decline is the reason why the two south Cumberland ridings had to merge in 1993.

Interestingly, the riding's second largest community, Parrsboro also de-incoporated recently, in 2016. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on January 24, 2018, 03:48:48 pm
Nothing scheduled so far, but the following seats are vacant:

Provincial:
Kindersley, SK
Melfort, SK
(Swift Current, SK will be vacated soon)


The most recent mainstreet poll gives the Saskatchewan Party a 17 point lead and Angus-Reid also showed an 8 percent jump in Wall's approval rating (This seems to be common for outgoing leaders to help their parties, same happened with Obama had approval ratings in the 40s but jumped to high 50s near the end) so with the current numbers I think SP is pretty safe in these three.  Maybe next year depending on how the new leaders do could change things.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: adma on January 25, 2018, 12:02:57 am
I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on January 25, 2018, 01:59:43 am
I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: Jeppe on January 25, 2018, 02:06:46 am
I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.

I don’t think he has a future in politics. I don’t think Roy Moore actually had non-oral penetrative sex with the high school girls he dated. Patrick Brown did.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on January 25, 2018, 02:10:45 am
I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.

I don’t think he has a future in politics. I don’t think Roy Moore actually had non-oral penetrative sex with the high school girls he dated. Patrick Brown did.

Agree he is probably finished, but certainly he will never become premier.  And he will only ever be able to run if it is actually proven they are false, getting off due to a technicality or reasonable doubt won't be sufficient.  And I think even though the evidence looks quite strong he did this, because the women were drunk there probably is a strong chance he will get acquitted.  I've heard only 3% of sexual assaults result in conviction as our justice system is based on unless something can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt, you must acquit so without physical evidence or multiple witnesses it's tough to get a conviction for any crime.  Still even if he never goes to prison, he is damaged goods.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 26, 2018, 08:13:55 am
Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat due to his sexual harassment allegations, so we should see a byelection in Cumberland South at some point. Premier McNeil said he won't  wait very long to call it. The seat us historically Tory, but the last result was pretty close for a leader's seat. The Liberals have a decent shot at picking it up.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 26, 2018, 09:49:27 am
Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat due to his sexual harassment allegations, so we should see a byelection in Cumberland South at some point. Premier McNeil said he won't  wait very long to call it. The seat us historically Tory, but the last result was pretty close for a leader's seat. The Liberals have a decent shot at picking it up.

Yup. (See page 1 of this thread)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 26, 2018, 10:22:10 am
Cumberland South was until recently a PC stronghold where they usually topped 60% and sometimes even 70%, but in recent elections it has become a lot more competitive so a Liberal pick up is definitely possible especially if they have a strong candidate.  Could also stay PC and in fact the next PC leader is not part of the caucus might be a good riding to run in.

I don't think the timeline will work out. McNeil is likely to call a byelection soon and the Tories haven't even set the rules for the leadership election yet. Thankfully for the Tories, the only serious potential non-caucus candidate is Cecil Clarke, who would have no problem winning a byelection in Cape Breton.

Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat due to his sexual harassment allegations, so we should see a byelection in Cumberland South at some point. Premier McNeil said he won't  wait very long to call it. The seat us historically Tory, but the last result was pretty close for a leader's seat. The Liberals have a decent shot at picking it up.

Yup. (See page 1 of this thread)

D'oh!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: Poirot on January 29, 2018, 11:02:51 pm
People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

Pettersen has decided not to run for the nomination in Chicoutimi. Could be a candidate again in the next general election in Jonquière. He says he wants tol support an unnamed candidate able to block people associated with the previous Saguenay administration (refering to Bouchard I figure).

Marielle Couture could be candidate for the Rhinoceros party. She is a former candidate and the party's Director of rainbows. She wants to abolish the months of February and November to reduce depression.

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/marc-pettersen-renonce-9b74a9fb9ef197744e1c3f6fc15024b4 (https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/marc-pettersen-renonce-9b74a9fb9ef197744e1c3f6fc15024b4)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: trebor204 on February 02, 2018, 07:45:20 pm
By-elections call for Kindersley, Melfort and Swift Current for March 1st.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/byelections-kindersley-melfort-swift-current-1.4516923


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on February 02, 2018, 10:22:03 pm
By-elections call for Kindersley, Melfort and Swift Current for March 1st.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/byelections-kindersley-melfort-swift-current-1.4516923

I suspect with the new premier probably being in the honeymoon phase still and these all strong Saskatchewan Party ridings, SP should hold all three but vote totals will be interesting nonetheless.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: toaster on February 04, 2018, 06:18:49 am
I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.

I wonder if Ann Hoggarth will try to switch ridings.  She is nominated in Barrie - Innisfil but Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte is much more winnable for the Liberals.  It's assumed she didn't choose the latter because the leader of the PCs was the candidate there (in Brown), but with that changed, I could see her switching over.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: 136or142 on February 04, 2018, 10:09:16 am
By-elections call for Kindersley, Melfort and Swift Current for March 1st.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/byelections-kindersley-melfort-swift-current-1.4516923

I suspect with the new premier probably being in the honeymoon phase still and these all strong Saskatchewan Party ridings, SP should hold all three but vote totals will be interesting nonetheless.

The riding of Kindersley has apparently never been held by the NDP, but they've been competitive there at times up to the 1995 election.

Melfort is an interesting riding in that it's one of the ridings that comprised the area of east central rural ridings that used to be known as 'Red Square,' because it was a rural area that was heavily NDP.  Federally this was the Yorkton-Melville riding that New Democrat Lorne Nystrom held for a long time.  The area has changed considerably with the growth of corporate farms and the decline of family farms but the NDP candidate is a throwback, a farmer who serves on the board of the local farmer co-op and the local credit union.

The Swift Current riding generally voted for the party that formed the government until Brad Wall won the riding in 1999 while the NDP was reelected.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on February 04, 2018, 04:34:05 pm
I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.

I wonder if Ann Hoggarth will try to switch ridings.  She is nominated in Barrie - Innisfil but Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte is much more winnable for the Liberals.  It's assumed she didn't choose the latter because the leader of the PCs was the candidate there (in Brown), but with that changed, I could see her switching over.

She might although to be fair unless the PCs screw up badly they should win both.  If you had to rank both ridings by winneability, Barrie-Innisfil is probably the PCs 25th strongest while Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater is probably around 35 so even if the PCs only got 40 seats provincewide they would probably win both.  They barely won Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater in 2015 and only won 33 seats in Ontario, so the Liberals do have a somewhat better chance there than Barrie-Innisfil, but they need the PCs to implode pretty badly to win either.  In all likelihood with how unpopular Wynne is, I suspect the PCs will probably win over 50 seats no matter what (note they still could lose since if the remaining 74 seats go either heavily NDP or Liberals which if they choose Doug Ford I could see happening, they might lose).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on February 15, 2018, 12:04:02 am
With 27 of 111 polls reporting and BC Liberals in a solid lead, I think it's fair to say this will be a BC Liberal hold, final numbers should be interesting though. Also BC Conservatives didn't have a candidate last time whereas they do now so that could push BC Liberal vote down a little.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on February 15, 2018, 12:20:50 am
CBC has now called this. No surprise as this is a very safe BC Liberal riding so a BC Liberal win expected. Final numbers will be interesting. At 45 out of 111 polls, NDP and Greens unchanged, BC Liberals down, but likely due to 7 percent voting BC Conservatives who didn't run a candidate in the last election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on February 15, 2018, 01:17:14 am
With only two polls left to report, looks like not much change from last May, with all the three major parties down slightly and the BC Conservatives who didn't run a candidate up, but doesn't seem to be particularly affecting anyone.  While some may assume all BC Conservatives would go BC Liberals, I am not so sure.  Yes both are on the political right but its silly to add up the sums of two parties and assume everyone who voted for one would go for the other if not available.  Either way this largely confirms the status quo and no suggestions of any party having momentum which is not surprising as its early days in the current government so I suspect not too many votes have shifted since last May.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: mileslunn on February 15, 2018, 01:20:53 am
Final results are as follows:


Total Valid Votes

% of Popular Vote


Kelowna West
  Shelley Cook BC NDP 3,197 23.47%
  Kyle Michael Ernest Geronazzo Libertarian 110 0.81%
Ben Stewart BC Liberal Party 7,692 56.46%
Robert Stupka BC Green Party 1,727 12.68%
Mark Thompson Conservative 898 6.59%
111 of 111 ballot boxes reported 13,624 100%


2017 general election results


v ·
 t ·
 e
   British Columbia general election, 2017


Party

Candidate

Votes

%

±%

 Liberal Christy Clark 15,674 59.05 +0.98
 New Democratic Shelley Cook 6,672 25.14 -5.71
 Green Robert Mellalieu 3,628 13.67 
 Independent Brian Thiesen 570 2.15
Total valid votes 26,544 99.56
Total rejected ballots 117 0.44 –
Turnout 26,661
 Liberal hold Swing +3.34

So it is BC Liberals -2.59, BC NDP -1.67, BC Greens -0.99 so it seems little change and considering BC Conservatives didn't run in the last election it appears it hit each party a little bit but none by much.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kelowna West, provincial, Feb 14)
Post by: 136or142 on February 15, 2018, 02:23:16 am
Final results are as follows:


Total Valid Votes

% of Popular Vote


Kelowna West
  Shelley Cook BC NDP 3,197 23.47%
  Kyle Michael Ernest Geronazzo Libertarian 110 0.81%
Ben Stewart BC Liberal Party 7,692 56.46%
Robert Stupka BC Green Party 1,727 12.68%
Mark Thompson Conservative 898 6.59%
111 of 111 ballot boxes reported 13,624 100%

I would have expected the Green Party to do better.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: trebor204 on February 20, 2018, 12:44:37 pm
Former Manitoba premier Greg Selinger will be stepping down as MLA of St Boniface March 7th.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/greg-selinger-resign-1.4543354


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 20, 2018, 06:55:40 pm
Former Manitoba premier Greg Selinger will be stepping down as MLA of St Boniface March 7th.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/greg-selinger-resign-1.4543354


I wonder if the Liberals will target it?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Jeppe on February 20, 2018, 07:42:56 pm
Former Manitoba premier Greg Selinger will be stepping down as MLA of St Boniface March 7th.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/greg-selinger-resign-1.4543354


I wonder if the Liberals will target it?

They aren't going anywhere with their new leader.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: trebor204 on February 20, 2018, 11:06:11 pm
Former Manitoba premier Greg Selinger will be stepping down as MLA of St Boniface March 7th.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/greg-selinger-resign-1.4543354


I wonder if the Liberals will target it?

There is a chance that current Liberal leader Dougald Lamont can try and contest the seat.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: mileslunn on March 01, 2018, 10:32:33 pm
Saskatchewan Party wins all three by landslides. While wins were not surprising size was so looks like Scott Moe getting a honeymoon but should probably diminish over time.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: lilTommy on March 02, 2018, 09:06:00 am
Saskatchewan Party wins all three by landslides. While wins were not surprising size was so looks like Scott Moe getting a honeymoon but should probably diminish over time.

The only notable change was Swift Current, ex-Premier Brad Wall's old seat. the Sask Party's popular vote actually went down by almost 10 points (from 82% in the last election to 73%), with the NDP up by that same amount (from 15% to 24%).
Melford - About no change in the results from 2016
Kindsersley - SP blew up to 88% from 68% in 2016, but in 2016 there was the Independent former MLA who stood as a candidate and took about 17%. The NDP had a small bump from 7%-10%


 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 02, 2018, 10:13:58 am
Results:

Kindersley
Ken Francis (SP): 88.15% (+20.20)
Travis Herbert (NDP): 9.90% (+2.51)
Yvonne Potter-Pihach (Grn): 1.95%
2 party Swing: 8.84% (NDP to SP)
Turnout: 32.42% (-27.32)

Melfort
Todd Goudy (SP): 78.68% (+1.59)
Lorne Schroeder (NDP): 19.47% (+0.04)
Shawn Setyo (Grn): 1.85% (+0.44)
2 party Swing: 0.78% (NDP to SP)
Turnout: 34.22% (-25.01)

Swift Current
Everett Hindley (SP): 73.53% (-8.91)
Stefan Rumpel (NDP): 24.21% (+9.11)
Maria Rose Lewans (Grn): 1.30% (-0.09)
Aidan Roy (Lib): 0.95% (-0.10)
2 party Swing: 9.01% (SP to NDP)
Turnout: 42.12% (-18.43)



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Njall on March 06, 2018, 12:05:13 pm
Brian Jean has resigned his Fort McMurray-Conklin seat. The by-election must be called within six months.

I also just realized that I never posted here when UCP MLA Don MacIntyre resigned his Innisfail-Sylvan Lake seat last month. He resigned after being charged with sexual interference involving a girl under 16.

So, two by-elections in UCP-held seats to be called in the near(-ish) future.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: lilTommy on March 06, 2018, 12:51:37 pm
Brian Jean has resigned his Fort McMurray-Conklin seat. The by-election must be called within six months.

I also just realized that I never posted here when UCP MLA Don MacIntyre resigned his Innisfail-Sylvan Lake seat last month. He resigned after being charged with sexual interference involving a girl under 16.

So, two by-elections in UCP-held seats to be called in the near(-ish) future.

Any likelihood that these two seats have become competitive for anyone but UCP?
In 2015, the NDP sweep:
Fort McMurray-Conklin = PC - 22% WR - 43% (combined into UCP 65%) NDP - 30%
*Jean was party leader so there "might" have been a bump here? But looking at the results in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo's they are about the exact same, so perhaps not.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake   = PC - 28% WR - 42% (Combined into UCP - 70%) NDP - 23%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 06, 2018, 03:39:26 pm
Any seat the NDP did not win in 2015 is certainly not going to be won by them in any by-election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: DL on March 07, 2018, 12:44:16 am
Any seat the NDP did not win in 2015 is certainly not going to be won by them in any by-election.

The only possible exception to that would be if there was a byelelction in Calgary Mountainview which is currently the sole Liberal seat in Alberta. It is actually demographically the best riding in Calgary for the NDP and is very much the Calgary equivalent of Edmonton Strathcona...had it not been for David Swann’s peronal appeal it would likely have gone NDP by a very wide margin in 2015


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 07, 2018, 09:40:15 am
Any seat the NDP did not win in 2015 is certainly not going to be won by them in any by-election.

The only possible exception to that would be if there was a byelelction in Calgary Mountainview which is currently the sole Liberal seat in Alberta. It is actually demographically the best riding in Calgary for the NDP and is very much the Calgary equivalent of Edmonton Strathcona...had it not been for David Swann’s peronal appeal it would likely have gone NDP by a very wide margin in 2015

OK sure, and I suppose they would have a shot at Calgary-Elbow too.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: DL on March 07, 2018, 12:44:24 pm
Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 07, 2018, 01:27:36 pm
Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I know, I was just trying to think of another riding they could hypothetically win.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: mileslunn on March 07, 2018, 07:10:26 pm
Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I think though Calgary-Elbow could stay Alberta Party or would be winneable by the Liberals if they were stronger, but NDP is a bridge too far probably.  Ironically this was Ralph Klein's former riding.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 08, 2018, 09:57:55 am
Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I think though Calgary-Elbow could stay Alberta Party or would be winneable by the Liberals if they were stronger, but NDP is a bridge too far probably.  Ironically this was Ralph Klein's former riding.

I'm not suggesting it is likely, I'm just saying it is more likely than any currently UCP-held riding.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: DL on March 08, 2018, 10:07:36 am
The only other current UCP seat that i could see the NDP contending in someday would be Calgary-Greenway. It is the most heavily immigrant/visible minority riding in the city and is the core of the federal Calgary-Skyview seat that went Liberal in 2015. had it not been for a very popular PC incumbent running there in 2015 and the NDP running a WASP paper candidate, it almost certainly would have gone NDP in 2015


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 09, 2018, 01:29:19 pm
The only other current UCP seat that i could see the NDP contending in someday would be Calgary-Greenway. It is the most heavily immigrant/visible minority riding in the city and is the core of the federal Calgary-Skyview seat that went Liberal in 2015. had it not been for a very popular PC incumbent running there in 2015 and the NDP running a WASP paper candidate, it almost certainly would have gone NDP in 2015

Well maybe, but they did blow their chance in a by-election there in 2016 (finishing 4th!), but part of that was due to a strong Liberal candidacy.

(Also a point of contention: Most of Calgary-Greenway is actually in the Calgary Forest Lawn federal riding, but looks to be an area of the riding that is more Liberal friendly)

ALSO, Calgary-Greenway (which is an abomination of a riding in terms of its shape), is going to be rightfully cut up for the next election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: mileslunn on March 09, 2018, 03:06:09 pm
Jason Kenney is also quite strong amongst the immigrant community so this might be one of the few cases where you get some federal Liberal UCP crossovers.  The immigrant community is fairly conservative, its more the fact there are still many xenophobes in the party why they don't vote for them.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Njall on March 12, 2018, 11:46:49 pm
Brian Jean has resigned his Fort McMurray-Conklin seat. The by-election must be called within six months.

I also just realized that I never posted here when UCP MLA Don MacIntyre resigned his Innisfail-Sylvan Lake seat last month. He resigned after being charged with sexual interference involving a girl under 16.

So, two by-elections in UCP-held seats to be called in the near(-ish) future.

Any likelihood that these two seats have become competitive for anyone but UCP?
In 2015, the NDP sweep:
Fort McMurray-Conklin = PC - 22% WR - 43% (combined into UCP 65%) NDP - 30%
*Jean was party leader so there "might" have been a bump here? But looking at the results in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo's they are about the exact same, so perhaps not.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake   = PC - 28% WR - 42% (Combined into UCP - 70%) NDP - 23%

Whoops, forgot to reply to this earlier.

I expect the UCP to hold both seats. However, the potential for some interesting developments to occur still exists. By-elections in Fort McMurray have quite low turnout even compared to other by-elections, which could lead to a volatile result compared to a general election. For example, the 2014 federal by-election saw the Liberal candidate come within about 10 points of the Conservative in the overall Fort McMurray--Athabasca riding, and I believe he actually won the city of Fort McMurray. For Innisfail--Sylvan Lake, I'll be more interested in the race for second place. The NDP performance even in 2015 wasn't that great, and the Alberta Party (which has gained a decent amount of traction since the formation of the UCP) has over performed there in the past. Running a former Penhold Town Councillor in 2015, the Alberta Party received 6.2% (compared to 2.3% province-wide), and over 10% in areas like Penhold and Springbrook. I could see them getting a double-digit result this time, and potentially finishing ahead of the UCP.


Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I think though Calgary-Elbow could stay Alberta Party or would be winneable by the Liberals if they were stronger, but NDP is a bridge too far probably.  Ironically this was Ralph Klein's former riding.

I'm not suggesting it is likely, I'm just saying it is more likely than any currently UCP-held riding.

I'd actually disagree with this. Calgary-Elbow is certainly an "old money" bastion, and they're not averse to voting for centrist candidates, but going NDP would be hugely out-of-character. Looking at the two-party (approximated by combining the PC and WRP votes) UCP-NDP vote share, Calgary-Elbow is the second-strongest UCP riding in Calgary after Calgary-West. I expect Calgary-Elbow to remain with the Alberta Party next election. I honestly can't think of any UCP-held ridings that the NDP could pick up. The closest thing to that, under the new riding boundaries, would be the urban Grande Prairie seat, which I only say because the NDP would have barely won it if the new boundaries existed in 2015.

To the earlier point, I certainly expect the NDP to be competitive in Calgary-Mountain View in the next election, and likely to pick it up. They would have won it in 2015 under the new boundaries.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Njall on March 13, 2018, 02:25:53 pm
To the earlier point, I certainly expect the NDP to be competitive in Calgary-Mountain View in the next election, and likely to pick it up. They would have won it in 2015 under the new boundaries.

As it happens, this morning, Justice Minister Kathleen Ganley (the current Calgary-Buffalo MLA) announced that she would be seeking re-election in Calgary-Mountain View in 2019. Finance Minister Joe Ceci, currently MLA for Calgary-Fort (Calgary-Peigan under the new boundaries) will run in Calgary-Buffalo in 2019.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Poirot on April 03, 2018, 02:44:48 pm
Singh visited Outremont and the story says he is open to running to replace Mulcair when he leaves. They are studying the pros and cons.   

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/04/03/jagmeet-singh-songe-a-se-presenter-au-quebec (http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/04/03/jagmeet-singh-songe-a-se-presenter-au-quebec)

I guess it's normal to try to see if he could win but I imagine the Liberals would campaign even harder to win it back since it benefits them to have the NDP not too strong.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 03, 2018, 02:55:45 pm
Singh visited Outremont and the story says he is open to running to replace Mulcair when he leaves. They are studying the pros and cons.   

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/04/03/jagmeet-singh-songe-a-se-presenter-au-quebec (http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/04/03/jagmeet-singh-songe-a-se-presenter-au-quebec)

I guess it's normal to try to see if he could win but I imagine the Liberals would campaign even harder to win it back since it benefits them to have the NDP not too strong.

Seems like a bad idea to me. Outremont is primed for a Liberal pick up between the fact that it is more a Mulcair seat than an NDP one and the large Liberal gain in the province since 2015.

No need for the leader to take an embarassing loss before the election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 03, 2018, 03:00:06 pm
This is as dumb as Elliott floating running in St. Paul's and would end similarly.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Poirot on April 03, 2018, 03:26:30 pm
I don't think it would be a good idea to run there but maybe I'm more influenced by traditional Outremont result. Maybe the NDP are looking at Singh possibility of taking votes in multicultural Outremont or that in a by-election with a lower turnout their base could turnout more than the general population like recent immigrants. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Poirot on April 03, 2018, 03:49:42 pm
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord needs to be called by June 2nd.
Four persons are running for the Liberal nomination so far. Claude Bouchard of Promotion Saguenay. Michel Ringuette who is a former mayor of Saint-Charles-de-Bourget, young entrepreneur Simon-Pierre Murdock and Lina Boivin business consultant and was appointed to Port Saguenay's board by the liberal government.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1090489/candidat-investiture-parti-liberal-canada-elections-partielle (https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1090489/candidat-investiture-parti-liberal-canada-elections-partielle)

There was a phone poll being done asking what are the priorities for the riding and what they think of different people including conservative candidate Richard Martel and Lina Boivin.

The riding executive of the Bloc has asked Ouellet to quit. They had found a candidate but won't run if she stays. I think think the consultation on Ouellet's leadership is at the same time as the limit to call the election, they will have to find someone else. The riding executive will not work for a candidate if Ouellet stays.   


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 03, 2018, 05:06:18 pm
Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: mileslunn on April 03, 2018, 05:12:21 pm
Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.

I agree Outremont is one of the more NDP friendly ridings in Quebec and if they cannot win there, they are in trouble.  Sure some like Guy Caron and Ruth Ellen Brousseau might hold their seats due to personal popularity, but Outremont is one of the few the NDP might still be competitive in even with their numbers in Quebec.  That being said probably too big a risk for Singh since if he loses he is done as leader and too close to the election to get a new one without some risks.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord may not be a Liberal stronghold but expect the Liberals to hold this and Tories come in second, while BQ and NDP fight over third and fourth.  Raw numbers will be interesting though.  For the Liberals anything over 40% is good news while under 30% suggests their troubles have spread to Quebec.  For Tories over 20% is somewhat good news, and high 20s suggest they might have at reasonable shot at gaining elsewhere in the regions of Quebec.  Under 15% suggests outside of the few pockets like the Chaudiere-Appalaches they are irrelevant in Quebec.  For NDP and BQ, over 20% would be a good showing based on where things are now while under 10% would be a disaster for both. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: MaxQue on April 03, 2018, 08:15:25 pm
Depends who is the Liberal candidate. Claude Bouchard can't win, he's way too close to the former corrupt administration of Saguenay City and which was destroyed at the last election (they went from 64% to 6% in the mayoral contest and from 17/19 seats to 1/15).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: mileslunn on April 03, 2018, 08:22:03 pm
For Singh if he wants a seat, these are the ridings he should probably go far if he can get them to step aside.  All the others are too risky and there is always the risk of being seen as a carpbetbagger, think John Tory losing Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock in 2009 which is normally a very safe PC riding.

Vancouver East - This is probably THE safest NDP riding in the country but not sure Jenny Kwan would be interested in stepping aside but with an election 18 months away she could run there again in 2019.  Much like how Scott Brison stepped aside for Joe Clark, but then ran again in 2000.

New Westminster-Burnaby - Peter Julian has been there since 2004 and this is also under the current boundaries quite safe as most of the population is New Westminster which always votes NDP and the part of Burnaby it includes is the most NDP friendly part.

Hamilton Centre - Not sure David Christophson would want to step aside after the recent incident but a safe riding nonetheless and also Andrea Howarth's too provincially who is very popular here.

Windsor West - Brian Masse has been there since 2002 and Jagmeet Singh has seen Windsor roots so makes sense to run in one of the two Windsor ridings.  Liberals very unpopular south of London due to provincial counterparts who have imploded there and Tories have a ceiling of 30% in Windsor.  Essex is too risky as the Tories had a strong second so its difficult to know which way the Liberal vote would break due to decline never mind Tory supporters tend to be more motivated to show up which is crucial in by-elections that normally have low turnouts. 

Timmins-James Bay is a bad one as this is a Charlie Angus riding more than anything and there could be some backlash with him stepping aside even though the riding normally goes NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 04, 2018, 05:03:06 am
Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.

Mulcair only won it by 10% in 2015. The Liberals are up 10% in Quebec, the NDP is down and I'd expect Mulcair to have more pull in the riding than Singh. That's about it.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: DL on April 04, 2018, 10:51:54 am
I doubt very much if Singh would actually run in a byelection in Outremont, but i don't think it harms him at all to be coy and let it be known that nothing is ruled out...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 04, 2018, 03:03:11 pm
Guys, Outremont was the best NDP riding in Quebec before Mulcair came in, and it was won by Valerie Plante last year. Why are we so sure it will go Liberal? It's exactly the kind of Quebec riding the NDP can do well in with Singh, as opposed to a more xenophobic nationalist seat.

Having said that, I still think it's a bad idea for him to run.

Mulcair only won it by 10% in 2015. The Liberals are up 10% in Quebec, the NDP is down and I'd expect Mulcair to have more pull in the riding than Singh. That's about it.

The Liberals probably have the advantage yes, but it's not a safe Liberal seat anymore.

Unless he is suicidal, Singh won't run unless internal polling suggests he would win anyways, so it's a moot point.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: mileslunn on April 04, 2018, 03:48:55 pm
I would also think internal polls would have to show a large lead as by-elections are notorious for poor turnouts too.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Poirot on April 07, 2018, 08:19:31 pm
For Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, former MP Dany Morin has decided not to run or for the general in 2019. The NDP's only candidate seems to be Eric Dubois who lost the nomination in 2015 for Lac-Saint-Jean but ran for the party in previous elections. He works for the CSN union.

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/jagmeet-singh-ne-serait-pas-candidat-8021406a02ccd467d48ff00618fc82c6 (https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/jagmeet-singh-ne-serait-pas-candidat-8021406a02ccd467d48ff00618fc82c6)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: mileslunn on April 25, 2018, 12:37:50 pm
Nicola di Iorio is quitting so will be a by-election sometime later this year in St. Leonard-St. Michel.  A very safe Liberal seat so they should easily hold this. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: trebor204 on May 02, 2018, 11:34:36 am
Gord Brown, MP for Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes has passed away.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mp-gord-brown-heart-attack-1.4644739



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: mileslunn on May 02, 2018, 03:11:57 pm
Gord Brown, MP for Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes has passed away.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mp-gord-brown-heart-attack-1.4644739



Terribly sad news.  Seems like he was also well liked by many on the other side too.  Too young and way too sudden to go.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 03, 2018, 10:48:40 am
Should be a Tory hold I imagine.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: mileslunn on May 03, 2018, 10:58:08 am
Gord Brown's riding is a pretty safe Tory one although the Liberals did come within 7 points in 2015, but normally Tory wins both provincially and federally are by large margins so I suspect it will be a Conservative hold.  If the Conservatives do for some reason lose it, I imagine Andrew Scheer's leadership will come under scrutiny and he could face a caucus rebellion, but again very unlikely to happen.  My guess is the Tories will get over 50% (they got 47% in 2015 which is quite low for them in this riding).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Njall on May 05, 2018, 12:39:52 pm
Alberta by-elections update:

The UCP have nominated their candidates for the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Fort McMurray-Conklin by-elections. In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Laila Goodridge will be the candidate, having beat out three other nomination contestants. She was the Wildrose candidate in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in 2015, and was previously a Wildrose and federal Conservative staffer. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Devin Dreeshen won the six-candidate nomination contest to become the UCP candidate. Dreeshen is on the Board of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers' Association, and is the son of Red Deer--Mountain View MP Earl Dreeshen.

The NDP have scheduled their nomination contest for Fort McMurray-Conklin for May 10th. The only declared candidate for the NDP nomination is Jane Stroud, Councillor for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo's Ward 4, making her the Councillor representing the hamlets of Anzac, Conklin, Gregoire Lake Estates, and Janvier (collective population: around 1000). No news yet on their plans for nominating a candidate in Innisfail Sylvan Lake.

The only news from any other party is that the Reform Party of Alberta (minor fiscal and social conservative party) will be running their Leader, Randy Thorsteinson, in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. Thorsteinson was previously leader of the Social Credit Party between 1993 and 1999, and the Alberta Alliance between 2003 and 2005.

The by-elections will likely be held in the early summer.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on May 05, 2018, 01:43:19 pm
^^^Both of these will be UCP landslides, right?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 05, 2018, 02:39:11 pm
^^^Both of these will be UCP landslides, right?

yup


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: adma on May 05, 2018, 02:47:35 pm
Though Thorsteinson might tokenly temper the Innisfail-SL UCP-landslide picture, I reckon.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Njall on May 06, 2018, 09:55:38 am
Though Thorsteinson might tokenly temper the Innisfail-SL UCP-landslide picture, I reckon.

Indeed, especially since he’s run here in the past and has a local profile. At the very least, I expect the combined UCP+Other Conservatives (Reform, etc.) to be at least 65% in both ridings.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 06, 2018, 01:52:17 pm
Huh. The new Reform Party's logo is essential the Democrats' logo but with an "R" instead of a D, and the shades of blue are different:

(Image Link)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on May 06, 2018, 11:11:02 pm
Huh. The new Reform Party's logo is essential the Democrats' logo but with an "R" instead of a D, and the shades of blue are different:

(Image Link)

(Image Link)
Dems used to have a dark blue circle, too.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Njall on May 07, 2018, 03:13:23 pm
Alberta by-elections update:

The UCP have nominated their candidates for the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Fort McMurray-Conklin by-elections. In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Laila Goodridge will be the candidate, having beat out three other nomination contestants. She was the Wildrose candidate in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in 2015, and was previously a Wildrose and federal Conservative staffer. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Devin Dreeshen won the six-candidate nomination contest to become the UCP candidate. Dreeshen is on the Board of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers' Association, and is the son of Red Deer--Mountain View MP Earl Dreeshen.

The NDP have scheduled their nomination contest for Fort McMurray-Conklin for May 10th. The only declared candidate for the NDP nomination is Jane Stroud, Councillor for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo's Ward 4, making her the Councillor representing the hamlets of Anzac, Conklin, Gregoire Lake Estates, and Janvier (collective population: around 1000). No news yet on their plans for nominating a candidate in Innisfail Sylvan Lake.

The only news from any other party is that the Reform Party of Alberta (minor fiscal and social conservative party) will be running their Leader, Randy Thorsteinson, in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. Thorsteinson was previously leader of the Social Credit Party between 1993 and 1999, and the Alberta Alliance between 2003 and 2005.

The by-elections will likely be held in the early summer.

As a further update, the NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake for May 25. The presumptive nominee is Nicole Mooney, the Communications and Political Engagement Officer for the union local of the Alberta Teachers' Association representing teachers of the Red Deer Catholic School Board. It also appears that Randy Thorsteinson has withdrawn his candidacy.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 10, 2018, 07:39:36 am
Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: mileslunn on May 10, 2018, 10:26:40 am
Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: lilTommy on May 10, 2018, 11:18:40 am
Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).

Even with the NDP polling about at 2015 or lower, they have been polling higher in BC. I don't see the Liberals winning in this climate, their overt pro-pipeline stance is not very popular from what I can see in the Metro area, and particularly Burnaby. The provincial BCNDP seem to be relatively popular, If the NDP nominate a strong candidate or even Singh as a seat filler till 2019 I see the NDP winning the seat.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: mileslunn on May 10, 2018, 12:23:17 pm
Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).

Even with the NDP polling about at 2015 or lower, they have been polling higher in BC. I don't see the Liberals winning in this climate, their overt pro-pipeline stance is not very popular from what I can see in the Metro area, and particularly Burnaby. The provincial BCNDP seem to be relatively popular, If the NDP nominate a strong candidate or even Singh as a seat filler till 2019 I see the NDP winning the seat.

Actually polling average shows NDP down slightly in BC at a federal level but with Trudeau moving leftward you have a lot of cross over Liberal federal, NDP provincial votes.  On the pipeline, polls show a clear majority in BC want it, although this is provincewide so its possible in Burnaby most are against it and its further afield that people support it.  Horgan's numbers are so-so but better than most premiers.  The budget was popular, but his stance on pipelines is not and recent polls are mixed bag with Angus-Reid showing NDP ahead by 5, Mainstreet, the BC Liberals by 2 and 6 respectively so with no election on the horizon tough to say who is right and I suspect if an election were held today over 80% possibly 90% of seats would go the same way they did a year ago.

Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 10, 2018, 01:47:27 pm
Stewart is running for mayor and says he'd support Singh if he runs for his seat. (http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/mp-kennedy-stewart-to-make-an-announcement-about-vancouver-mayoral-election-thursday)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: MaxQue on May 10, 2018, 06:24:28 pm
Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South is making an announcement about possibly running for Mayor of Vancouver today. If he resigns his seat, it may open up a more friendly spot for Singh to run in than Outremont.

Still even Burnaby South is far from a safe one and if Singh loses there he is done as leader.  I could see the Liberals who almost won in 2015 picking it up and while not a Conservative riding a slight uptick for them and a perfect split could allow them to slip up the middle (you would need a perfect split for them to win there).

Even with the NDP polling about at 2015 or lower, they have been polling higher in BC. I don't see the Liberals winning in this climate, their overt pro-pipeline stance is not very popular from what I can see in the Metro area, and particularly Burnaby. The provincial BCNDP seem to be relatively popular, If the NDP nominate a strong candidate or even Singh as a seat filler till 2019 I see the NDP winning the seat.

Actually polling average shows NDP down slightly in BC at a federal level but with Trudeau moving leftward you have a lot of cross over Liberal federal, NDP provincial votes.  On the pipeline, polls show a clear majority in BC want it, although this is provincewide so its possible in Burnaby most are against it and its further afield that people support it.  Horgan's numbers are so-so but better than most premiers.  The budget was popular, but his stance on pipelines is not and recent polls are mixed bag with Angus-Reid showing NDP ahead by 5, Mainstreet, the BC Liberals by 2 and 6 respectively so with no election on the horizon tough to say who is right and I suspect if an election were held today over 80% possibly 90% of seats would go the same way they did a year ago.

Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.

The pools about it with regional samples have the pipeline being the least popular in Metro Vancouver and the most in non-Vancouver mainland.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 12, 2018, 10:24:20 am
Chicoutimi: Grits chose their candidate, a local businesswoman endorsed by Lemieux. Given how much pork Justin's been dumping there in recent weeks, I assume he calls it within a week. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201805/07/01-5174960-chicoutimi-le-fjord-lina-boivin-representera-le-plc-a-la-partielle.php)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: adma on May 12, 2018, 01:49:12 pm
Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.

How "huge" a gamble is it?  Remember that 2015 was skewed by Justinmania vs Mulcair's dreary leadership; and that provincially, it was still the Christy Clark regime and voters were jaded about the BC NDP after so many failed/thwarted kicks at the can.

Of course, to state the obvious: there's an operating assumption here that suburban Vancouver would be less averse to electing a turbanned Sikh than inner-city Montreal (much less Quebec at large)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 12, 2018, 01:54:51 pm
One potential advantage is that it could force the issue - which at present is very much in flux - of his credibility and so future to a conclusion: if he wins, well, he is credible and has a future. If not, much easier to to write off as an Error and to move on.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: 136or142 on May 12, 2018, 01:59:53 pm
Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.

How "huge" a gamble is it?  Remember that 2015 was skewed by Justinmania vs Mulcair's dreary leadership; and that provincially, it was still the Christy Clark regime and voters were jaded about the BC NDP after so many failed/thwarted kicks at the can.

Of course, to state the obvious: there's an operating assumption here that suburban Vancouver would be less averse to electing a turbanned Sikh than inner-city Montreal (much less Quebec at large)


Was it?  The B.C samples don't show a large change between the NDP and the Liberals since 2015 and Kennedy Stewart was reelected by just 547 votes against a low profile young liberal candidate (although apparently his family had some connections throughout Burnaby.)

Burnaby isn't overwhelmingly NDP.

I'd say this could be a lean NDP riding with Singh running, but the voters might not like a non Burnaby (or British Columbian) running for the seat.  Given the latest polls, this could be a three way race.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 13, 2018, 09:04:58 am
Chicoutimi called for June 18, easy rouge hold. (http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/federal-by-election-to-be-held-june-18-in-chicoutimi-le-fjord?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1526220173)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Krago on May 13, 2018, 10:40:37 am
I'd say this could be a lean NDP riding with Singh running, but the voters might not like a non Burnaby (or British Columbian) running for the seat.  Given the latest polls, this could be a three way race.

It worked for Tommy Douglas in 1962:

https://lop.parl.ca/About/Parliament/FederalRidingsHistory/hfer.asp?Language=E&Search=Cresdetail&Election=7590 (https://lop.parl.ca/About/Parliament/FederalRidingsHistory/hfer.asp?Language=E&Search=Cresdetail&Election=7590)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Krago on May 13, 2018, 10:42:17 am
Chicoutimi called for June 18, easy rouge hold. (http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/federal-by-election-to-be-held-june-18-in-chicoutimi-le-fjord?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1526220173)

Quick questions:

Will both the Bloc Quebecois and Quebec Debout run candidates?

Who will win more votes?

My guesses are 'Yes' and the BQ.


ETA: the website www.quebecdebout.org reroutes to www.blocquebecois.org   I guess you should really reserve your web address before you announce your party name.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on May 13, 2018, 12:53:25 pm
But baby strikes me as very fertile NDP ground. I’d imagine they’d elect Singh, especially if the Grits put up a provincial Liberal.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Lotuslander on May 13, 2018, 04:52:06 pm

The pools about it with regional samples have the pipeline being the least popular in Metro Vancouver and the most in non-Vancouver mainland.

Nada. Latest KM pipeline polling (several polls) in BC showing major shift in favour. Majority of BC interior/Metro Vancouver supports same while plurality on Van Isle.

But key figure is *strong opposition*. While it has been at ~20% over years, that figure now falling as well to between 10% - 17%. That 10% to 17% *strong opposition* likely split between NDP/Green voters. Can't win an election on those numbers & that's even if this *strong* opposition are *one issue* voters. Doubt that as well.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: the506 on May 17, 2018, 11:35:44 am
Jamie Baillie's old seat of Cumberland South called for June 19.
http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1571294-mcneil-announces-june-19-byelection-for-cumberland-south


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 17, 2018, 11:42:31 am
Jamie Baillie's old seat of Cumberland South called for June 19.
http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1571294-mcneil-announces-june-19-byelection-for-cumberland-south

The Tory candidate's first name is Tory :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 03, 2018, 09:59:37 am
Saint Leonard-Saint Michel: the imam who eulogized the Quebec City massacre victims might run for the Grits. (http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/imam-could-run-for-federal-liberals-in-montreal-byelection?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1528037209)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 10, 2018, 07:41:08 pm
Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall :-\


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 10, 2018, 07:43:43 pm
Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall :-\

Break out the thumbscrews, force him not to run etc.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Kindersley, Melfort & Swift Current Mar 1)
Post by: Krago on June 10, 2018, 07:50:36 pm
Chicoutimi called for June 18, easy rouge hold. (http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/federal-by-election-to-be-held-june-18-in-chicoutimi-le-fjord?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1526220173)

Quick questions:

Will both the Bloc Quebecois and Quebec Debout run candidates?

Who will win more votes?

My guesses are 'Yes' and the BQ.


ETA: the website www.quebecdebout.org reroutes to www.blocquebecois.org   I guess you should really reserve your web address before you announce your party name.

The BQ is running Catherine Bouchard-Tremblay, a two-time candidate for the Option nationale.

There is an Independent candidate, but I don't think John Turmel is running for Quebec Debout.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on June 10, 2018, 08:06:39 pm
Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall :-\
Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: MaxQue on June 10, 2018, 08:22:28 pm
Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall :-\
Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.

NDP-held since 1963, except two times (1969 and obviously 1999).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Njall on June 10, 2018, 10:46:24 pm
Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall :-\
Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.

NDP-held since 1963, except two times (1969 and obviously 1999).

Any chance for the Greens to gain enough vote share that they could allow the Liberals to sneak up the middle? I feel like that'd be too much room to make up, but I'm also not super familiar with local politics in that area.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on June 10, 2018, 10:53:36 pm
Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall :-\
Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.

NDP-held since 1963, except two times (1969 and obviously 1999).

Any chance for the Greens to gain enough vote share that they could allow the Liberals to sneak up the middle? I feel like that'd be too much room to make up, but I'm also not super familiar with local politics in that area.
Unlikely they would probably need to win roughly 27% or so to let the liberals win so you get something like 35-33-27-5 split (BC Liberal-NDP-Green-Other) or something. Also I imagine if their was any serious concern about vote splitting the Greens might not run a candidate as they wouldn’t want to see the government brought down before the electoral referendum takes place.   


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: MaxQue on June 11, 2018, 02:57:56 am
Also, if we exclude Mainstreet (which is all over the place), all polls have a decent NDP lead.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2018, 07:39:17 am
Singh continues talking with his British Columbians about Burnaby, no decision yet. (https://www.hilltimes.com/2018/06/11/ndp-leader-singh-consults-b-c-ndp-mps-running-burnaby-south/147057)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 11, 2018, 08:03:39 am
Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall :-\

Could be, but Spencer Chandra Herbert mused about running for mayor of Vancouver and a few days later Solicitor General Mike Farnworth promised to crack down on ticket re-sellers which has long been a pet concern for Chandra Herbert.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4065959/ticket-scalpers-bot-crack-down-british-columbia/

Hard to believe this wasn't 'hardball politics' from Chandra Herbert. Could be that Krog has taken a lesson from that.

Of course, I could also be completely wrong.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 11, 2018, 10:41:48 am
Speaking of the Vancouver mayoral race, aren't there like 4 left wing candidates right now? jfc. Why don't we just hand the NPA the mayoralty on a silver platter.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: MaxQue on June 13, 2018, 01:27:19 pm
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1106675/sondage-election-partielle-chicoutimi-conservateur-votes

Riding poll by Segma in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

CPC 48.5%
LPC 26.7%
BQ 11.7%
NDP 8.3%
GPC 4.2%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 13, 2018, 02:35:59 pm
:o

Usual caveats about riding polling [especially by-election riding polls] of course, but wow.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 13, 2018, 02:38:50 pm
if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: MaxQue on June 13, 2018, 02:46:11 pm
:o

Usual caveats about riding polling [especially by-election riding polls] of course, but wow.

Conservatives should do well in any case, they have a star candidate (unlike the other parties), Richard Martel, former long-term head coach of the local junior (QJMHL) hockey team.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 13, 2018, 03:28:02 pm
if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

Maybe somewhere out west in the 20's and 30's?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 13, 2018, 03:50:20 pm
I found two

Saskatoon City
1930: Tory
1935: Liberal
1940: United Reform (communist front)
1945: CCF

Kindersley
1930: Progressive
1935: Social Credit
1940: Liberal
1945: CCF


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: JG on June 13, 2018, 04:01:21 pm
:o

Usual caveats about riding polling [especially by-election riding polls] of course, but wow.

Conservatives should do well in any case, they have a star candidate (unlike the other parties), Richard Martel, former long-term head coach of the local junior (QJMHL) hockey team.

Yeah. I come from Jonquière, the city next to Chicoutimi and Martel is huge around here. He has it in the bag, most probably.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Poirot on June 13, 2018, 04:11:50 pm
if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

The federal riding of Louis-Hébert in the last four elections.
2006 Conservative
2008 Bloc Québécois
2011 NDP
2015 Liberal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district))



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 13, 2018, 04:18:32 pm
if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

The federal riding of Louis-Hébert in the last four elections.
2006 Conservative
2008 Bloc Québécois
2011 NDP
2015 Liberal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district))



Oh duh. Can't believe I missed that one


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Tintrlvr on June 13, 2018, 05:18:31 pm
if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

The federal riding of Louis-Hébert in the last four elections.
2006 Conservative
2008 Bloc Québécois
2011 NDP
2015 Liberal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district))



Not only that but Louis-Hebert also changed hands in 2006 (BQ -> Con), 2004 (Lib -> BQ) and 2000 (BQ -> Lib) such that it has changed parties at each of the last seven federal elections. I don't think any other seat comes close. It's also elected a different, non-incumbent MP at each of the last nine federal elections, since the BQ MP first elected in 1993 stood down in 1997 and was replaced by a different BQ MP, which must also be a record. There's a reasonable chance the Conservatives gain it back at the next election, too, which would continue the pattern.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on June 13, 2018, 06:07:56 pm
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1106675/sondage-election-partielle-chicoutimi-conservateur-votes

Riding poll by Segma in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

CPC 48.5%
LPC 26.7%
BQ 11.7%
NDP 8.3%
GPC 4.2%
(Image Link)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 14, 2018, 01:57:00 pm
NDP MP tweets that today is Mulcair's last day in Parliament, even though he said last year he'd resign once the session ended and it doesn't for another week. (https://twitter.com/M_Vastel/status/1007335436929380352) At any rate, Outremont won't be called till after our provincial election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 14, 2018, 03:44:09 pm
Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Njall on June 14, 2018, 04:46:18 pm
Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 14, 2018, 07:54:57 pm
Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Njall on June 15, 2018, 02:15:56 am
Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)

Fort McMurray sometimes has weird swings in by-elections due to low turnout and other local factors, so anything is theoretically possible there. But the UCP certainly are favoured.

Jean's presence likely helped somewhat, although it's interesting to note that the NDP and Liberals essentially performed identically in both Fort Mcmurray ridings in 2015, and Jean only did about 4% better than Tany Yao did in the other riding, with much of that seemingly coming at the expense of the PCs. That said, I doubt the NDP would have won even without Jean on the ballot. Both Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie are much more resource sector-based than southern cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, or Medicine Hat, and the NDP of 2015 weren't seen as being super friendly to the sector, especially compared to the NDP of 2018*. On that note, and on the bellwether comment, it'll certainly be interesting to see what impact, if anything, Notley's recent actions on Trans Mountain will have up in the heart of oilsands country.

*This statement only applicable to the Alberta NDP


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 15, 2018, 02:35:40 am
Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)

Fort McMurray sometimes has weird swings in by-elections due to low turnout and other local factors, so anything is theoretically possible there. But the UCP certainly are favoured.

Jean's presence likely helped somewhat, although it's interesting to note that the NDP and Liberals essentially performed identically in both Fort Mcmurray ridings in 2015, and Jean only did about 4% better than Tany Yao did in the other riding, with much of that seemingly coming at the expense of the PCs. That said, I doubt the NDP would have won even without Jean on the ballot. Both Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie are much more resource sector-based than southern cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, or Medicine Hat, and the NDP of 2015 weren't seen as being super friendly to the sector, especially compared to the NDP of 2018*. On that note, and on the bellwether comment, it'll certainly be interesting to see what impact, if anything, Notley's recent actions on Trans Mountain will have up in the heart of oilsands country.

*This statement only applicable to the Alberta NDP

Hrm, the NDP ran as pretty strong pro Oilsands in 2015, so, given the amount of union resource workers I would have expected to do better.

I meant that Jean running in Fort McMurray helped Wildrose in both ridings. :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Njall on June 15, 2018, 12:13:37 pm
Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)

Fort McMurray sometimes has weird swings in by-elections due to low turnout and other local factors, so anything is theoretically possible there. But the UCP certainly are favoured.

Jean's presence likely helped somewhat, although it's interesting to note that the NDP and Liberals essentially performed identically in both Fort Mcmurray ridings in 2015, and Jean only did about 4% better than Tany Yao did in the other riding, with much of that seemingly coming at the expense of the PCs. That said, I doubt the NDP would have won even without Jean on the ballot. Both Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie are much more resource sector-based than southern cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, or Medicine Hat, and the NDP of 2015 weren't seen as being super friendly to the sector, especially compared to the NDP of 2018*. On that note, and on the bellwether comment, it'll certainly be interesting to see what impact, if anything, Notley's recent actions on Trans Mountain will have up in the heart of oilsands country.

*This statement only applicable to the Alberta NDP

Hrm, the NDP ran as pretty strong pro Oilsands in 2015, so, given the amount of union resource workers I would have expected to do better.

I meant that Jean running in Fort McMurray helped Wildrose in both ridings. :)

The 2015 view of the NDP not being resource industry-friendly was partially because of confirmation bias on the part of a lot of Albertans, IMO. They certainly weren't hostile while campaigning, but some of their campaign points like angling for a royalty review while oil was beginning its worst downtown of a generation didn't help.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 15, 2018, 01:42:24 pm
Colour me skeptical.

If the Greens get nothing and the NDP retain all of the 2015 progressive vote share, they would still need at least a swing 16% swing from old Tory and Wildrose shares. I don't really see Fort Mac as a good candidate to be Alberta's Tobique-Mactaquac.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 15, 2018, 08:54:38 pm
Colour me skeptical.

If the Greens get nothing and the NDP retain all of the 2015 progressive vote share, they would still need at least a swing 16% swing from old Tory and Wildrose shares. I don't really see Fort Mac as a good candidate to be Alberta's Tobique-Mactaquac.

I didn't predict the NDP would win the riding.  :)  I wrote that it was a bellweather given the nature of the riding as described above.  If the NDP end up with 10% of the vote, for instance, they are dead outside of Calgary and Edmonton except for maybe Lethbridge.  If they end up holding on to their share of the vote, or even increasing it by taking some P.C and Liberals votes and the votes of some people who might have voted NDP in 2015 were Brian Jean not running in Fort McMurray, the NDP could be very competitive in 2019.

The NDP have 54 seats, 25 in Edmonton and its suburbs, 15 in Calgary and 2 in Lethbridge.  So, the closest bellwether for this Fort McMurray byelection are the other 12 NDP ridings.  If they don't do well in this byeletion, I think it's a signal the NDP at a minimum could not win a consecutive majority government.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 07:46:25 pm
First poll
Richard Martel, Conservative 40, 61.5%
Lina Boivin, Liberal, 17, 26.2%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on June 18, 2018, 07:49:40 pm
I am disappointed in the lack of TURMEL SURGE.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 07:53:58 pm
2 polls now
60-56 for Martel


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 07:57:01 pm
4 polls
160-82 for Martel

First 2 votes for Turmel!  Turmelmentum!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 07:59:29 pm
5 polls
192-125


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 18, 2018, 08:01:09 pm
NDP is in fifth :(


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 18, 2018, 08:02:02 pm

now they're in third lol


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 08:02:19 pm
8 polls
301-204, 3 way battle for very distant third.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 08:03:28 pm
10 polls
437-249

Dwarven Dragon: call this a Conservative gain over Liberals.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 08:04:15 pm
15 polls
692-364
NPD solidifying distant third.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 08:08:02 pm
20 polls 854-460. NDP in 3rd at 139 (8.5%.) Turmel with a third vote!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 08:09:59 pm
25 polls
971-516.  NDP in third with 166 votes (8.9%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on June 18, 2018, 08:10:09 pm
Turmel has five votes!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 08:11:21 pm
30 polls
1177-650.  NDP in third with 204 (9.0%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 08:12:51 pm
35 polls
1400-840.  NDP in third with 231 (8.3%.) Turmel up to 6 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 08:14:09 pm
40 polls
1638-956.  NDP in third with 274 (8.5%.) Turmel at 10 votes!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on June 18, 2018, 08:14:32 pm
Looks like it'll be a Conservative gain by a very convincing margin.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 18, 2018, 08:14:46 pm
I guess the goal for the NDP will be to get at least a higher share of the vote than 2008? That mark was 7.8%. Third place would be good too.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 08:15:53 pm
45 polls
1923-1107.  NDP in 3rd with 312 (8.3%)  Turmel at 14 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 08:17:55 pm
50 polls
2,261-1251.  NDP in third with 362 (8.4%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: 136or142 on June 18, 2018, 08:27:52 pm
Now up to 70 of 188 polls reporting.  Percentages haven't changed significantly.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 18, 2018, 08:42:12 pm
CBC calls it.  (https://twitter.com/musgravesharon/status/1008886096434851840)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on June 18, 2018, 08:54:30 pm
I look forward to the NDP winning a Barrie riding with candidate Dale Hawerchuk.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on June 18, 2018, 08:58:52 pm
The most important stat of tonight: John Turmel has 62 votes so far, which is three more than the 59 votes he got when he ran in the Ontario provincial election in Brantford-Brant.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 18, 2018, 09:00:17 pm
Well, the Toires would win Ottawa South with Brian Kilrea, who is an even more accomplished junior coach than Martel.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: trebor204 on June 18, 2018, 09:22:00 pm
John Turmel is now at 86 votes with 165/188 polls, can he break 100?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: Holmes on June 18, 2018, 09:25:50 pm
Very uneventful by-election when the more interesting topic is Turmel.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: trebor204 on June 18, 2018, 09:53:59 pm
John Turmel just broke 100 votes with 185/188 polls reporting.

Liberal - 29.50%
Bloc - 5.6%
NDP - 8.6%
Consv - 52.70%
IND - Turmel - 0.4%
Green - 3.1%



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: trebor204 on June 18, 2018, 10:22:58 pm
Final Unofficial Results

Liberal                               Lina Boivin                           7,032   29.5 %   
Bloc Québécois                   Catherine Bouchard-Tremblay   1,337   5.6 %   
NDP-New Democratic Party    Éric Dubois                           2,065   8.7 %   
Conservative                    Richard Martel                         12,580   52.7 %   
Independent                    John The Engineer Turmel              104   0.4 %   
Green Party                    Lynda Youde                              736   3.1 %   
Total number of valid votes:       23,854       
Polls Reporting:   188 of 188 (100 %)

Voter Turnout:   23,854 of 66,152 registered electors (36.06 %)



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: clash on June 19, 2018, 12:16:29 am
Conservatives and Quebecois nationalists joining forces in a cynical political alliance? What could go wrong?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 19, 2018, 06:39:28 am
There is a by-election in Cumberland South today to replace former PC leader Jamie Baillie who resigned in a #metoo incident.

The seat has a long Tory history, but the Liberals kept it reasonably close in 2013 and 2017 despite it being held by a leader. Unfortunately I don't know much about the candidates  and that's kind of a big deal in a rural Maritime by-election, so I'll just call it a 50/50 tossup.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, QC federal, June 18)
Post by: JG on June 19, 2018, 06:54:07 am
Conservatives and Quebecois nationalists joining forces in a cynical political alliance? What could go wrong?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Cumberland South, NS provincial, June 19)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 19, 2018, 11:10:02 am
Swings:
Cons: +36.1%
Lib: -1.6%
NDP: -21.1%
BQ: -14.9%
Grn: +1.0%

Cons GAIN from Lib (18.9%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Cumberland South, NS provincial, June 19)
Post by: lilTommy on June 19, 2018, 03:43:51 pm
St.Boniface Manitoba by-election called for July 17th

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-byelection-st-boniface-1.4713049

I suspect this to be a battle between the NDP and Liberals; Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont is running in the former NDP Premiers seat. This would give the party official party status. The NDP have held St. Boniface since 1999.

Last Winnipeg poll was (april 2018):
PC - 39%
NDP - 34%
Libearl - 16%
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/pallister-pcs-widen-lead-over-ndp/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Cumberland South, NS provincial, June 19)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 19, 2018, 07:37:37 pm
PCs have held on to Cumberland South. Elections NS isn't showing how many polls remain, so don't know if the results are final.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Cumberland South, NS provincial, June 19)
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 19, 2018, 07:51:45 pm
The Tory candidate's first name is Tory. Hehe


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Cumberland South, NS provincial, June 19)
Post by: adma on June 20, 2018, 07:08:21 am
Larry DUCHESNE             NDP                292
Scott LOCKHART              NSLP           1,829
Bruce W. MCCULLOCH      GPNS              235
Tory RUSHTON                PC               3,417


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Cumberland South, NS provincial, June 19)
Post by: DC Al Fine on June 20, 2018, 07:42:26 am
About an 8% swing from Liberal to Tory.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Cumberland South, NS provincial, June 19)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 20, 2018, 08:22:35 am
Results/swings

PC 59.2% (+7.7)
LIB 31.7% (-8.8 )
NDP 5.1% (-0.7)
GRN  4.1%

Swing: PC HOLD (+8.2%)

Turnout: 53.0% (-9.4%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: Njall on July 11, 2018, 09:53:49 pm
Tomorrow is election day for the two Alberta by-elections! Polls are open from 9am to 8pm. Below are final candidate listings, and the 2015 results for context.

Fort McMurray-Conklin

Candidates:
Brian Deheer (GRN)
Sid Fayad (ABP)
Laila Goodridge (UCP)
Robin Le Fevre (LIB)
Jane Stroud (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 43.85%
NDP: 30.79%
PC: 22.33%
LIB: 3.03%


Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

Candidates:
Abigail Douglass (ABP)
Devin Dresden (UCP)
David Inscho (IND)
Nick Jansen (LIB)
Nicole Mooney (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 42.68%
PC: 28.00%
NDP: 23.14%
ABP: 6.19%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: mileslunn on July 11, 2018, 10:46:15 pm
Tomorrow is election day for the two Alberta by-elections! Polls are open from 9am to 8pm. Below are final candidate listings, and the 2015 results for context.

Fort McMurray-Conklin

Candidates:
Brian Deheer (GRN)
Sid Fayad (ABP)
Laila Goodridge (UCP)
Robin Le Fevre (LIB)
Jane Stroud (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 43.85%
NDP: 30.79%
PC: 22.33%
LIB: 3.03%


Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

Candidates:
Abigail Douglass (ABP)
Devin Dresden (UCP)
David Inscho (IND)
Nick Jansen (LIB)
Nicole Mooney (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 42.68%
PC: 28.00%
NDP: 23.14%
ABP: 6.19%

I think what will be more interesting to watch is do the NDP numbers hold up or do they fall and by how much.  Likewise does the UCP meet or exceed the combined total of WRP and PCs or fall short.  A good night for the UCP is beat the combined total and NDP falls well below what they got lost time.  Good night for NDP is hold or even gain slightly from last time while UCP falls short of combined vote.  The latter is what they need if they want to win next year.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: Njall on July 12, 2018, 01:40:48 am
Oh, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Elections Alberta has released the advance vote totals for both ridings. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, it's essentially unchanged from the 2015 election at around 2,850, while in Fort McMurray-Conklin, it's up substantially from 2015, at around 1,100 compared to 700.

Also, an obligatory roundup on candidate dirt/mudslinging:

In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Goodridge has been painted as an outsider (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-conklin-ucp-byelection-wildrose-1.4737777) due to her having run in Grande Prairie in 2015, and having not lived in Fort McMurray for a substantial period of time while doing political work in Edmonton and Ottawa. Goodridge has also drawn flak (http://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/2018/07/10/ucps-special-interest-group-argument-worries-rural-indigenous-voters) from indigenous leaders, for a comment suggesting that a potential low voter turnout may allow NDP "special interests" to swing the election. Meanwhile, Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad was forced to apologize after a 5-year old Facebook post surfaced (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-candidates-condemn-opponent-s-racial-slur-1.4739867) where he used the n-word in a comment.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, NDP candidate Nicole Mooney, who is a Catholic school teacher, drew some unwanted attention when it emerged that she had taken students to the 2014 March for Life (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ndp-candidate-anti-abortion-innisfail-1.4739706), and was quoted as saying "we want to promote among our kids the message that abortion is wrong and that life begins at conception." Meanwhile, it also emerged that UCP candidate Devin Dreeshen spent much of 2016 in the US campaigning for Donald Trump (https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/d3e8pq/conservative-candidate-in-alberta-hiding-past-as-a-trump-campaigner), who has of course now enacted tariffs that are negatively impacting Canadian workers.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 12, 2018, 06:23:39 pm
Burnaby: Stewart says there's a good chance Singh runs in the by-election. (https://www.hilltimes.com/2018/07/12/theres-good-chance-ndp-leader-singh-may-run-burnaby-south/151038)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 12, 2018, 06:51:54 pm
Oh, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Elections Alberta has released the advance vote totals for both ridings. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, it's essentially unchanged from the 2015 election at around 2,850, while in Fort McMurray-Conklin, it's up substantially from 2015, at around 1,100 compared to 700.

Also, an obligatory roundup on candidate dirt/mudslinging:

In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Goodridge has been painted as an outsider (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-conklin-ucp-byelection-wildrose-1.4737777) due to her having run in Grande Prairie in 2015, and having not lived in Fort McMurray for a substantial period of time while doing political work in Edmonton and Ottawa. Goodridge has also drawn flak (http://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/2018/07/10/ucps-special-interest-group-argument-worries-rural-indigenous-voters) from indigenous leaders, for a comment suggesting that a potential low voter turnout may allow NDP "special interests" to swing the election. Meanwhile, Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad was forced to apologize after a 5-year old Facebook post surfaced (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-candidates-condemn-opponent-s-racial-slur-1.4739867) where he used the n-word in a comment.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, NDP candidate Nicole Mooney, who is a Catholic school teacher, drew some unwanted attention when it emerged that she had taken students to the 2014 March for Life (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ndp-candidate-anti-abortion-innisfail-1.4739706), and was quoted as saying "we want to promote among our kids the message that abortion is wrong and that life begins at conception." Meanwhile, it also emerged that UCP candidate Devin Dreeshen spent much of 2016 in the US campaigning for Donald Trump (https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/d3e8pq/conservative-candidate-in-alberta-hiding-past-as-a-trump-campaigner), who has of course now enacted tariffs that are negatively impacting Canadian workers.

I get the UCP guy even if he was dumb to do it, but how on earth does someone that pro-life get it in their head to run for the NDP?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: Njall on July 12, 2018, 08:17:15 pm
Oh, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Elections Alberta has released the advance vote totals for both ridings. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, it's essentially unchanged from the 2015 election at around 2,850, while in Fort McMurray-Conklin, it's up substantially from 2015, at around 1,100 compared to 700.

Also, an obligatory roundup on candidate dirt/mudslinging:

In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Goodridge has been painted as an outsider (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-conklin-ucp-byelection-wildrose-1.4737777) due to her having run in Grande Prairie in 2015, and having not lived in Fort McMurray for a substantial period of time while doing political work in Edmonton and Ottawa. Goodridge has also drawn flak (http://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/2018/07/10/ucps-special-interest-group-argument-worries-rural-indigenous-voters) from indigenous leaders, for a comment suggesting that a potential low voter turnout may allow NDP "special interests" to swing the election. Meanwhile, Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad was forced to apologize after a 5-year old Facebook post surfaced (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-candidates-condemn-opponent-s-racial-slur-1.4739867) where he used the n-word in a comment.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, NDP candidate Nicole Mooney, who is a Catholic school teacher, drew some unwanted attention when it emerged that she had taken students to the 2014 March for Life (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ndp-candidate-anti-abortion-innisfail-1.4739706), and was quoted as saying "we want to promote among our kids the message that abortion is wrong and that life begins at conception." Meanwhile, it also emerged that UCP candidate Devin Dreeshen spent much of 2016 in the US campaigning for Donald Trump (https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/d3e8pq/conservative-candidate-in-alberta-hiding-past-as-a-trump-campaigner), who has of course now enacted tariffs that are negatively impacting Canadian workers.

I get the UCP guy even if he was dumb to do it, but how on earth does someone that pro-life get it in their head to run for the NDP?

FWIW, she claims that her views have changed in the four years since then.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: mileslunn on July 12, 2018, 09:30:18 pm
NDP was leading in Fort McMurray-Conklin, but still early.  Also poll 20, Hillview Park, they've changed the numbers a few times, first UCP ahead in that poll, then NDP at 59 to 60, then UCP ahead again so not sure what is going on there.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: mileslunn on July 12, 2018, 09:37:23 pm
Looks like the UCP will easily win Innisfail-Sylvan Lake.  With 10 of 86 polls reporting and UCP north of 80%, I think we can call this for the UCP.  Fort McMurray-Conklin still too early.  Turns out UCP candidate for Innisfail-Sylvan Lake campaigned for Trump, mind you this is probably a riding that will vote conservative regardless.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on July 12, 2018, 09:42:47 pm
16% of polls in and UCP near 70%? Looks like Fort McMurray-Conklin will go UCP, as expected.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: mileslunn on July 12, 2018, 09:44:29 pm
16% of polls in and UCP near 70%? Looks like Fort McMurray-Conklin will go UCP, as expected.

The first few looked promising for the NDP, but now it looks like an easy UCP win.  Innisfail-Sylvan Lake the UCP might top 80% and NDP could fall to third behind Alberta Party or get in single digits.  It does though look like the Alberta Party not Liberals will be the main party for centrist voters who dislike the two main parties.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: mileslunn on July 12, 2018, 09:56:15 pm
Looking at Fort McMurray-Conklin numbers, I think it is safe to say the UCP will hold this as well.  Just waiting to see final numbers, but both suggest UCP will exceed combined vote while NDP does worse than 2015.  Mind you by-elections have low turnouts and the demographics most likely to show up tend to lean rightward.

 That being said it must be hard being a progressive in rural areas of the Prairies as it seems parties on the right run up the margins so progressives are very much a minority.  Sure BC interior and rural Ontario, usually vote conservative, but usually parties on the right only get around 50% of the vote so progressives there are not quite as rare a species even if they seldom win seats in those areas.  Mind you being a conservative in downtown Toronto or downtown Montreal are also vastly outnumbered.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 12, 2018, 11:01:56 pm
With one poll remaining (Fort Fitzgerald, with 2 electors, and didn't have any voters in 2015), looks like the NDP almost held their 2015 support in Fort Mac, but are getting absolutely destroyed in Innisfail.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: Njall on July 13, 2018, 04:07:44 am
With one poll remaining (Fort Fitzgerald, with 2 electors, and didn't have any voters in 2015), looks like the NDP almost held their 2015 support in Fort Mac, but are getting absolutely destroyed in Innisfail.

Indeed, looks like the UCP/Non-UCP split held almost fully steady in Fort McMurray-Conklin. Of note, the turnout in that riding was quite high for a by-election, or indeed, any election in Fort McMurray: 36%, compared to 44% in the 2015 election. For comparison, the by-election turnout in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake was 33%, compared to a 2015 election turnout of 55%.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: 2 Alberta provincial by-elections, July 12)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 13, 2018, 08:40:57 am
Final results:

Fort McMurray-Conklin
UCP 65.89% (-0.29)
NDP 29.53% (-1.25)
AP 2.75%
ALP 1.10% (-1.93)
GRN 0.73%

Turnout: 35.73% (-8.72)

Swing: UCP notional HOLD (+0.48%)

Interestingly, the # of electors in the riding dropped 4k, most likely due to the wildfires in 2016.


Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
UCP 81.76% (+11.08)
NDP 9.23% (-13.90)
AP 7.42% (+1.23)
ALP 0.95%
IND 0.64%

Turnout: 32.53% (-22.96)

Swing: UCP notional HOLD (+12.49%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on July 13, 2018, 08:48:43 am
The Fort McMurray result isn't all that bad, but the Innisfail result is awful. I wonder what caused the NDP to tank so hard there.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: lilTommy on July 13, 2018, 12:42:50 pm
The Fort McMurray result isn't all that bad, but the Innisfail result is awful. I wonder what caused the NDP to tank so hard there.

I wonder if Notley's aggressive push and very public support for Pipelines effectively shorted up the NDP support?

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake - I don't think that's really a surprise is it? since 1997 the combined right vote, the "conservative" vote has been around/over 70%. whether it was PC+Social Credit or Alliance or WR. Breaking 80% is probably also due to this being a by-election and conservatives being more motivated then NDP/Liberals/AP/Green to even bother showing up


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 13, 2018, 04:45:42 pm
Yeah, I'm guessing would-be NDP voters stayed home.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on July 13, 2018, 07:28:59 pm
Yeah, I'm guessing would-be NDP voters stayed home.

Wouldn’t surprise me with the NDP candidate being anti-abortion which surely turned off the already really small NDP base. They weren’t bothered to hold their nose to vote for her since it’s a byelection in a safely UCP seat.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: mileslunn on July 16, 2018, 12:32:20 am
Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on July 16, 2018, 12:33:40 am
Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.
The provincial liberals are running their leader here so will be interesting to see how he does.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 16, 2018, 01:07:32 am
Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.

The provincial PCs have rebounded in support. Brian Pallister seems to be turning out to be a very capable Premier.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: mileslunn on July 16, 2018, 01:27:24 am
Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.

The provincial PCs have rebounded in support. Brian Pallister seems to be turning out to be a very capable Premier.

True enough, although they got 53% which will be pretty tough to repeat, but they are up to 45% which is more than enough to win a solid majority although not Saint Boniface.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 16, 2018, 09:09:34 am
I would not be surprised if the Liberals won it; they'll in the very least win the "Old St. Boniface" area, which is still a majority francophone.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: mileslunn on July 16, 2018, 10:20:10 am
Looking ahead at the upcoming federal by-elections, here are my thoughts:

Burnaby South

I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here and the Greens as promised don't run a candidate, but I also would not be the least bit surprised if the Liberals pick this up.  Tories have an outside chance, but they need perfect splits, otherwise Greens get around 10% and the Liberals and NDP split perfectly down the middle at around 30% each so unless they perfect splits doubt they will pick this up.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Island & Rideau Lakes

This is a fairly safe Conservative riding so suspect the Tories will hold this.  Some benchmarks for them are under 50% is a bad night, 50-60% okay, while over 60% a good night.  For the Liberals anything over 30% is a good showing, 20-30% okay, while under 20% bad night.  For comparison it was 47% Tories in 2015 to 40% Liberals so somewhat competitive, but would be surprised if that close again.  Provincially on the other hand it was 62% PC while both Liberals and NDP got in the teens and I don't think it will be quite as big a blowout as this, otherwise this would be the best case scenario for the Tories and worst case for the Liberals.  NDP will likely be in the teens maybe even single digits as they've always been weak here even when they do well provincially.

Outremont

Liberals definitely favoured here, but I wouldn't totally rule out of the NDP since unlike the other Quebec by-elections to date, this is an area the NDP has historically done well in even pre 2011, still I would say the Liberals are the favourites.  For the NDP their main goal is to if not win it, at least make it close.  If they lose badly, this could suggests bigger trouble in Quebec.  Tories will be lucky if they can just get their deposit back (You have to get over 10% for this to happen).

St. Leonard-St. Michel

Liberal landslide, likely north of 60%.  NDP and Tories probably get their deposits back but likely languish in the teens.  Will be interesting to see who comes in second, albeit it will be a very distant second.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 08:29:29 pm
St Boniface
First poll
NDP 16
Liberal 15


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 08:30:15 pm
2 polls
Lib 42
NDP 38
Green 20
P.C 14


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 08:36:12 pm
5 polls
Lib: 105
NDP: 80
Green 37
NDP 26


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: trebor204 on July 17, 2018, 08:36:57 pm
Weird, total votes cast are 667, however vote count is at 248.



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 08:38:24 pm
6/49 polls
Lib: 208
NDP: 119
Green: 55
P.C: 48


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 08:39:50 pm
7/49
Lib: 225
NDP: 175
Green: 58
P.C: 57


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 08:41:36 pm
11/49
Lib:  474
NDP: 270
Green: 109
P.C: 105


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 08:48:44 pm
16/49 Polls
Liberal 749
NDP 420
Green 244
P.C 186


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 08:51:51 pm
20/49 Polls
Liberal: 965
NDP: 561
Green: 336
P.C: 272


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on July 17, 2018, 08:54:20 pm
Looking like a fairly easy Liberal win. Yikes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 08:55:18 pm
22/49 Polls
Liberal:1,101
NDP: 660
Green:381
P.C:310


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 08:59:14 pm
24/49 Polls
Liberal: 1,221
NDP: 755
Green: 453
P.C: 335


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 09:01:09 pm
26/49 Polls
Liberal: 1,340
NDP: 798
Green: 476
P.C: 349


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 09:04:11 pm
29/49 Polls
Liberal: 1,472
NDP: 940
Green: 535
P.C: 401


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 09:05:33 pm
32/49 Polls
Liberal: 1,606
NDP: 1,036
Green: 617
P.C: 437


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 17, 2018, 09:09:15 pm
Well, I didn't pay much attention to this by-election, but I still saw this coming ;)

The riding does have a high francophone population and has a bit of a Liberal history. And Trudeaumania still has its coattails for the Liberal brand.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 09:12:10 pm
35/49 Polls
Liberal: 1,736
NDP: 1,157
Green: 666
P.C: 488


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on July 17, 2018, 09:12:54 pm
At least I can enjoy the PCs being 4th place by a good margin.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 17, 2018, 09:18:40 pm
The Greens had a good showing (12%) in 2016, so they had a base to work on. But I figured a lot of that came from disaffected New Democrats who couldn't vote for Selinger. I guess they're no fans of Kinew either.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 09:29:35 pm
40/49 Polls
Liberal: 2,057
NDP: 1,371
Green: 778
P.C: 632


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 09:48:00 pm
45/49 Polls
Liberal: 2,207
NDP: 1,460
Green: 823
P.C: 713


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2018, 10:11:11 pm
48/49 Polls
Liberal: 2,266
NDP: 1,542
Green: 871
P.C: 741

They're changing the vote totals. Somebody doesn't want the Green Party to get 1,000 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: trebor204 on July 17, 2018, 10:26:39 pm
Final

LIB 2625 42.0%
NDP 1770  28.3%
Green 1017 16.2%
PC 804 12.9%

Turnout 48.14%



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 17, 2018, 10:43:25 pm
Swings:

Lib: +22.6%
NDP: -14.1%
Grn: +4.0%
PC: -12.5%

Liberal GAIN from NDP (swing: 18.3%)




Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: trebor204 on July 18, 2018, 08:40:29 pm
The Greens manage to win a poll


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/st-boniface-byelection-poll-results-map-1.4751381


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 18, 2018, 09:17:41 pm
The Greens manage to win a poll


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/st-boniface-byelection-poll-results-map-1.4751381


No surprise the Liberals won Old St. Boniface


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 19, 2018, 05:33:11 am
The Greens manage to win a poll


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/st-boniface-byelection-poll-results-map-1.4751381


No surprise the Liberals won Old St. Boniface

Look, not terrible poll divisions!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018
Post by: Poirot on July 27, 2018, 09:48:06 pm
NDP's candidate who will try to hold Outremont is Julia Sanchez.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-candidate-outremont-1.4761028 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-candidate-outremont-1.4761028)

She was president of the Canadian Council of International Cooperation. She has lived in Ottawa for seven years and before that overseas but lived in Outremont in 2004.



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 29, 2018, 04:08:32 pm
York-Simcoe federal: Peter Van Loan is leaving politics and resigning his seat Sept. 30. (https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1023675663092310016)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: mileslunn on July 29, 2018, 08:34:18 pm
York-Simcoe federal: Peter Van Loan is leaving politics and resigning his seat Sept. 30. (https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1023675663092310016)

Interesting, but a fairly safe Tory seat, so would be a huge shocker if they lose that one.  If they do lose it, I suspect Andrew Scheer's leadership of party would come under question, although I suspect the Tories will hold this, more interesting to see what the numbers are though.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on July 29, 2018, 09:02:04 pm
York-Simcoe federal: Peter Van Loan is leaving politics and resigning his seat Sept. 30. (https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1023675663092310016)

To be fair to him, I'm not sure what he's planning to do, but it's only one year to the next election (from his retirement date) and he really should have made an effort to finish the term.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: mileslunn on July 29, 2018, 10:15:17 pm
Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on July 29, 2018, 10:19:45 pm
Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.
With the Kinder Morgan pipeline being unpopular in Burnaby I would be shocked if the NDP lost Burnaby South.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: mileslunn on July 29, 2018, 10:53:49 pm
Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.
With the Kinder Morgan pipeline being unpopular in Burnaby I would be shocked if the NDP lost Burnaby South.

Support for the pipeline is 20 points above opposition in BC. Granted it's obviously not that high in Burnaby South, but I am not sure it is widely opposed, just those who oppose it are the nosiest. You have a large immigrant community as well as many over 50 who care more about jobs and economy. It's more your ex hippies amongst the over 50 and native born millennials who are most opposed to it and latter tends to not show up in by-elections.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on July 29, 2018, 10:59:46 pm
Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.
With the Kinder Morgan pipeline being unpopular in Burnaby I would be shocked if the NDP lost Burnaby South.

Support for the pipeline is 20 points above opposition in BC. Granted it's obviously not that high in Burnaby South, but I am not sure it is widely opposed, just those who oppose it are the nosiest. You have a large immigrant community as well as many over 50 who care more about jobs and economy. It's more your ex hippies amongst the over 50 and native born millennials who are most opposed to it and latter tends to not show up in by-elections.
The NDP swept Burnaby fairly comfortably in 2017 provincially in  part because of opposition to Kinder Morgan. Also the conservatives and liberals will probably split the anti pipeline vote.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Lotuslander on July 30, 2018, 01:43:30 am
Quote from: Former GM 1184AZ link=topic=281631.msg6328374#msg6328374
The NDP swept Burnaby fairly comfortably in 2017 provincially in  part because of opposition to Kinder Morgan. Also the conservatives and liberals will probably split the anti pipeline vote.

The only election EVER fought on KM pipeline in BC was the 2013 BC provincial election. Was known as the "Kinder Morgan Surprise", which dominated latter half of campaign. BC NDP ran TV ads with oil tankers in Burrard Inlet opposing same.

Final outcome? BC NDP lost popular vote share in ALL 4 Burnaby ridings over 2009 election. Go figure.

2017 BC election? BC NDP leader Horgan told media that he "did not want to talk about KM". Wasn't an issue. At all.

In 2015 fed election? Local newspapers reported that candidates in all fed Burnaby ridings stated that KM was not even an issue at the door step.

Latest Angus Reid poll results on KM in BC:

Strongly Support: 35%
Moderately Support: 27%
Moderately Oppose: 13%
Strongly Oppose: 15%
Don't Know: 10%

Net Support: 62%
Net Oppose: 28%

Key figure here is 15% *strongly* opposed. Fringe territory.

Frankly, I'd wager that the KM pipeline would be a bigger issue in downtown T.O. riding of Toronto-Danforth than in Burnaby South. ;)

PS. KM pipeline doesn't even run through riding of Burnaby South.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 03, 2018, 12:57:54 pm
Outremont vacant as of midnight. I assume a late November or early December vote. (https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/mulcair-resigns-as-an-mp-putting-montreal-seat-up-for-grabs-1.4039832#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=twitter&_gsc=4wQdUsO)

Burnaby South vacant as of Sept. 14. (https://www.burnabynow.com/news/updated-jagmeet-singh-to-visit-burnaby-next-week-mp-kennedy-stewart-submits-resignation-1.23388574)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 05, 2018, 06:01:22 pm
Singh's running in Burnaby South. (https://twitter.com/MercedesGlobal/status/1026239145792954369) I see both sides for Grits playing to win there.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 06, 2018, 05:59:43 pm
Windsor Lake, NL will be vacant soon. (https://twitter.com/CathyBennettNL/status/1026582721055866880)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: 136or142 on August 06, 2018, 06:04:53 pm
Singh's running in Burnaby South. (https://twitter.com/MercedesGlobal/status/1026239145792954369) I see both sides for Grits playing to win there.

He won't announce until Wednesday.  It ain't for certain until Jagmeet Singhs.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Jeppe on August 06, 2018, 06:29:18 pm
Singh is probably a favourite to win the seat, as the Tory surge will keep LPC numbers relatively low compared to 2015 in seats like this.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 08, 2018, 03:35:57 pm
Not only is Singh running in Burnaby but he says he'll move there and run in the general if he wins. (https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/08/08/jagmeet-singh-burnaby_a_23498574/?utm_hp_ref=ca-british-columbia)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: DC Al Fine on August 09, 2018, 07:02:24 am
Not only is Singh running in Burnaby but he says he'll move there and run in the general if he wins. (https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/08/08/jagmeet-singh-burnaby_a_23498574/?utm_hp_ref=ca-british-columbia)

Risky move, that isn't exactly a super safe seat. You'd think he'd run in a heavily Sikh seat in Brampton or Surrey.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 09, 2018, 09:41:17 am
Not only is Singh running in Burnaby but he says he'll move there and run in the general if he wins. (https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/08/08/jagmeet-singh-burnaby_a_23498574/?utm_hp_ref=ca-british-columbia)

Risky move, that isn't exactly a super safe seat. You'd think he'd run in a heavily Sikh seat in Brampton or Surrey.

Well, he wants to win NOW. Promising to move will help him with that; dispelling fears to carpetbagging.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 09, 2018, 01:34:22 pm
Also if you're going to gamble (and this is a huge gamble: make or break in terms of credibility), you have to do it properly or there's no way it will work.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: trebor204 on August 12, 2018, 01:01:10 am
Michael Barrett (34 year old municipal Councillor) wins the Tory nomination in Leeds-Grenville-etc.


https://www.recorder.ca/news/local-news/barrett-wins-tory-nod


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: mileslunn on August 12, 2018, 01:29:56 pm
Michael Barrett (34 year old municipal Councillor) wins the Tory nomination in Leeds-Grenville-etc.


https://www.recorder.ca/news/local-news/barrett-wins-tory-nod

And likely next MP considering this is a very safe Tory riding.  Actually whomever wins the Liberal nomination in St. Leonard-St. Michel, Tory for York-Simcoe and Leeds-Grenville-Thousands Islands & Rideau Lakes is pretty much almost guaranteed to be MP.  Liberals likely to win Outremont but still an outside chance of an NDP hold.  Burnaby South will be the most competitive.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: King of Kensington on August 12, 2018, 01:32:34 pm
Winning the Tory nomination in Leeds-Grenville is the harder part!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 16, 2018, 11:01:54 am
Regina Northeast by-election called for September 12.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: Poirot on August 16, 2018, 01:00:43 pm
The Green party will not run a candidate in federal Burnaby South against NDP leader Singh citing leader's courtesy.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/greens-won-t-run-candidate-in-burnaby-south-as-leader-s-courtesy-to-singh-may-1.4055747 (https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/greens-won-t-run-candidate-in-burnaby-south-as-leader-s-courtesy-to-singh-may-1.4055747)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: St Boniface, MB provincial, July 17)
Post by: mileslunn on August 16, 2018, 02:03:33 pm
Regina Northeast by-election called for September 12.


While one needs to be careful not to read too much into by-elections this could be somewhat interesting to see if Scott Moe has helped regain some of the urban support Brad Wall lost in 2017.  This is one of the more favourable Saskatchewan Party ridings in Regina so if the NDP wins here, quite possible they sweep or win ever Regina seat except Regina-Wascana Plains.  On the other hand if the Saskatchewan Party holds this shows they are still competitive in urban Saskatchewan.  Rural Saskatchewan off course remains firmly in the hands of the Saskatchewan Party at the moment.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: Jeppe on August 16, 2018, 02:31:44 pm
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/by-election-regina-northeast-1.4787481 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/by-election-regina-northeast-1.4787481)

Should be an easy NDP pick-up, the NDP got their preferred candidate and the Sask Party is straddled with an unknown candidate that took out their preferred candidate in the nomination contest.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 02, 2018, 10:45:23 am
Windsor Lake, NL by-election is called for Sept 20. The new PC leader, Ches Crosbie will be contesting.

While the Liberals won it easily in 2015, it has been a bit of a bellwether in the past. It was also the riding of former Premier Kathy Dunderdale.

MHAs:

Pleasantville
Jerome W. Dinn, PC (1975-1989)
Walter Noel, Liberal (1989-1996)

Virginia Waters
Walter Noel, Liberal (1996-2003)
Kathy Dunderdale, PC (2003-2014)
Cathy Bennett, Liberal (2014-2015)

Windsor Lake
Cathy Bennett, Liberal (2015-2018)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: DC Al Fine on September 02, 2018, 10:56:18 am
Windsor Lake, NL by-election is called for Sept 20. The new PC leader, Ches Crosbie will be contesting.

While the Liberals won it easily in 2015, it has been a bit of a bellwether in the past. It was also the riding of former Premier Kathy Dunderdale.

MHAs:

Pleasantville
Jerome W. Dinn, PC (1975-1989)
Walter Noel, Liberal (1989-1996)

Virginia Waters
Walter Noel, Liberal (1996-2003)
Kathy Dunderdale, PC (2003-2014)
Cathy Bennett, Liberal (2014-2015)

Windsor Lake
Cathy Bennett, Liberal (2015-2018)

That's kind of ballsy trying to enter the legislature by trying to pick off a seat rather than getting an incumbent in a safe seat to resign.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 05, 2018, 06:34:04 pm
Burnaby: Justin probably won't call it till next year because he doesn't want the Dippers to dump Singh, as the Dippers plan to do if he loses. (https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-ndp-mps-in-mutinous-mood-over-jagmeet-singhs-uninspired-leadership?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1536189114)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 09:29:11 pm
Regina North East
1st poll
NDP 15
Sask 10
P.C 4
Lib 1


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 12, 2018, 09:34:33 pm
As usual, the media is privy to much more updated results:



Lookin' good!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 09:39:19 pm
As usual, the media is privy to much more updated results:



Lookin' good!

Interloper. :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 09:40:13 pm
5 polls
NDP 96
Sask 74
PC 6
Green 5
Liberal 4


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 09:41:13 pm
8 polls
NDP 241
Sask 173
P.C 14
Liberal 10
Green 9
WIP 4


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 09:42:25 pm
10 polls
NDP 315
Sask 237
P.C 20
Green 11
Liberal 10
WIP 6


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 09:44:05 pm
12/48 polls
NDP 405
Sask 310
P.C 22
Lib 11
Green 11
WIP 10


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 09:46:37 pm
15 polls
NDP 525
Sask 410
P.C 24
Green 20
Liberal 14
WIP 13


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on September 12, 2018, 09:50:49 pm
This seems like a very, very good result for the NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 09:53:01 pm
21 polls
NDP 779
Sask 578
P.C 42
Green 35
Lib 20
WIP 16


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 09:55:21 pm
25/48 polls
NDP 927
Sask 659
P.C 45
Green 41
Lib 27
WIP 17


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 09:58:22 pm
28 polls
NDP 1,093
Sask 762
P.C 56
Green 49
Liberal 28
WIP 19


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 12, 2018, 09:58:43 pm


:)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 10:00:47 pm
35 polls
NDP 1359
Sask 945
P.C 74
Green 62
Liberal 39
WIP 26


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 10:03:25 pm
42 polls
NDP 1,664
Sask 1172
P.C 93
Green 65
Lib 44
WIP 30


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 10:06:58 pm
44 polls  Completion of the counting of the vote today.
NDP 1,958
Sask 1,409
P.C 115
Green 77
Liberal 48
WIP 32


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 10:10:52 pm
45 polls (1st of 3 advanced polls)
NDP 2,216
Sask 1,646


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 10:11:45 pm
46 polls
NDP 2,272
Sask 1,670


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 12, 2018, 10:20:14 pm
Waiting for the last poll to report for the night. There is an absentee poll that will be added later.  I presume this is a large advanced poll that is still out.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 12, 2018, 10:57:10 pm
All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
 LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 13, 2018, 07:56:05 am
All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
 LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 13, 2018, 08:29:20 am
All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
 LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.

How do you know this? Elections Saskatchewan says 100% of polls are in.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: 136or142 on September 13, 2018, 08:31:51 am
All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
 LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.

How do you know this? Elections Saskatchewan says 100% of polls are in.

A total of 48 ballot boxes are reported during Preliminary Count on September 12, comprised of 44 regular polls, 3 advance polls and 1 homebound poll. 1 additional poll for absentee votes will be added to the Final Count on September 24, for a total of 49 ballot boxes.

http://results.elections.sk.ca/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Regina Northeast, SK provincial, Sept 12)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 13, 2018, 09:50:59 am
All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
 LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.

How do you know this? Elections Saskatchewan says 100% of polls are in.

A total of 48 ballot boxes are reported during Preliminary Count on September 12, comprised of 44 regular polls, 3 advance polls and 1 homebound poll. 1 additional poll for absentee votes will be added to the Final Count on September 24, for a total of 49 ballot boxes.

http://results.elections.sk.ca/

Ahh, it would help if I read the fine print.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 14, 2018, 08:12:26 pm
Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general. (https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-blog/don-martin-jagmeet-singh-s-burnaby-byelection-run-takes-more-guts-than-brains-1.4094578)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: mileslunn on September 14, 2018, 09:54:24 pm
Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general. (https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-blog/don-martin-jagmeet-singh-s-burnaby-byelection-run-takes-more-guts-than-brains-1.4094578)

Interesting, but be careful for what you wish for.  I think Singh could also do better than expected too.  I actually think if he underperforms it will be less because of him and more fear of a Conservative win and many progressive voters voting strategically to stop the Tories. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 14, 2018, 10:59:15 pm
Dirty, dirty tricks. Sunny ways indeed.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: DC Al Fine on September 15, 2018, 06:21:05 am
That's interesting. When's the last time the Grits or Tories gave an NDP leader a pass?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: DL on September 15, 2018, 07:38:29 am
Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general. (https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-blog/don-martin-jagmeet-singh-s-burnaby-byelection-run-takes-more-guts-than-brains-1.4094578)

I find this a ludicrous theory.

First of all, given that it’s just one year to the next election Singh will be the NDP leader regardless of what happens in Burnaby South.

Secondly, in the very unlikely event that the Liberals were to decide not to run a candidate, it would be because they did some polling in the riding a realized they had zero chance and so they would figure that rather than let Singh boast about a big win in the byelection, why not bow out and devalue his win.

Thirdly, if Singh dropped dead tomorrow and the NDP suddenly had to replace him, who would that replacement be that supposedly strikes fear in the hearts of Liberals. Charlie Angus who speaks virtually no French and was a total flop when he ran for leader? Niki Ashton the strident, humorless Socialist Caucus darling? Seriously, if there was someone else who wanted to be leader who had that much potential to cut I to the Liberal vote...that person would be leader right now.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: 136or142 on September 15, 2018, 01:58:03 pm
Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general. (https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-blog/don-martin-jagmeet-singh-s-burnaby-byelection-run-takes-more-guts-than-brains-1.4094578)

I find this a ludicrous theory.

First of all, given that it’s just one year to the next election Singh will be the NDP leader regardless of what happens in Burnaby South.

Secondly, in the very unlikely event that the Liberals were to decide not to run a candidate, it would be because they did some polling in the riding a realized they had zero chance and so they would figure that rather than let Singh boast about a big win in the byelection, why not bow out and devalue his win.

Thirdly, if Singh dropped dead tomorrow and the NDP suddenly had to replace him, who would that replacement be that supposedly strikes fear in the hearts of Liberals. Charlie Angus who speaks virtually no French and was a total flop when he ran for leader? Niki Ashton the strident, humorless Socialist Caucus darling? Seriously, if there was someone else who wanted to be leader who had that much potential to cut I to the Liberal vote...that person would be leader right now.

Nathan Cullen.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: Poirot on September 15, 2018, 04:28:37 pm
Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general. (https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-blog/don-martin-jagmeet-singh-s-burnaby-byelection-run-takes-more-guts-than-brains-1.4094578)

I find this a ludicrous theory.

First of all, given that it’s just one year to the next election Singh will be the NDP leader regardless of what happens in Burnaby South.

Secondly, in the very unlikely event that the Liberals were to decide not to run a candidate, it would be because they did some polling in the riding a realized they had zero chance and so they would figure that rather than let Singh boast about a big win in the byelection, why not bow out and devalue his win.

I agree more with DL's explanation. Maybe Liberlas don't think they would win in Burnaby. Not contesting it downplays NDP's win, they can spin they are courteous to a leader's party, and if Singh makes pipeline a big issue the Liberals avoid a loss on this issue or don't have to engage in a fight on the issue in that riding.

Also if Burnaby is held at the same time as Outremont, the Liberals can spin they win an NDP held riding whilethe the NDP leader winning a seat is not a big win if not much contested. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: DL on September 15, 2018, 04:59:32 pm
If Nathan Cullen wanted to be NDP leader he could have run last year and it likely would have been a coronation but he didn’t want the job and there is no reason to believe he  wants the job anymore now than he did then


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: Lotuslander on September 15, 2018, 06:06:29 pm
This tidbit from article:

"The Liberal party wants him to win so badly, the Prime Minister may well give Singh a free pass by not putting up a Liberal competitor."

Sounds more like Martin trying to make a point than anything else. BTW, LPC has already officially announced they will run candidate in Burnaby South to quell any such rumours.

Some recent data points:

Week-old federal poll of City of Vancouver proper residents with large n=862 sample size. Federal voting intentions:

LPC: 38.8%
CPC: 26.5%
NDP: 21%
Green: 9.4%
Other 4.4%

If (big if) those numbers held up on e-day, NDP would have tough time hanging onto Vancouver-Kingsway IMHO. Burnaby South is adjacent to fed ridings of Vancouver South & Vancouver-Kingsway in City of Vancouver proper.

This week's Nanos "Preferred PM" numbers for BC:

Trudeau: 44.26%
Scheer: 19.36%
Unsure: 18.09%
May: 11.83%
Singh: 5.97%

Any media coverage Singh receives in BC is mostly negative - for those even paying any attention.

As for KM twinning? Just fringe 15% of BCers "strongly" oppose same. Even NDP-dominated Burnaby City council relatively recently brought in RCMP & bulldozers evicting anti-KM protester camp. Speaks volumes.

As for Burnaby South demographics? Roughly more than 50% are foreign-born & mostly from China, Hong Kong & Taiwan.

One just needs to read proverbial tea leaves for Burnaby South.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: DL on September 15, 2018, 06:12:13 pm
This the same Lotuslander who said:

1. There was absolutely no chance whatsoever that the BC NDP would win the byelection in Coquitlam-Burke Mount. They won
2. The NDP would get no more than 6 seats in BC in the 2015 federal election. They got 14
3. That there was absolutely no chance at all of the BC NDP winning in 2017 and that in fact they would likely get only 20-odd seats. They got 42 seats and are now the government
4. That there was no chance whatsoever that the BC NDP could form a minority government after the 2015 election and that even if they did it would collapse within a month...over a year later they are still in power and by all accounts quite popular and effective.

Lotuslander does serve a useful purpose when it comes to figuring out NDP fortunes in BC. Just read what he says will happen and then you can rest assured that the exact opposite will actually happen.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 15, 2018, 07:30:10 pm
If Singh gets coronated in Burnaby, perhaps they'll put up a good fight in Outremont? I still say there's an outside chance the NDP can hold it (wouldn't bet on it though). Our numbers show the NDP is still in second place on the Island of Montreal.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: DL on September 15, 2018, 09:02:45 pm

I hate to be picked about grammar but the noun is a "coronation" and the verb is "to crown"...it should be "if Singh gets crowned in Burnaby"


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: Lotuslander on September 16, 2018, 01:07:36 am
Sigh. When Jagmeet was recently in Regina, SK at NDP meeting, former SK NDP MP Lorne Nystrom also was in attendance. His take in the TorStar?

"I went to one of Singh's meetings in Regina and was totally underwhelmed", Nystrom said. "Someone asked him about the economy and he ended up talking about love and courage."

#Awesomeness

Wait a minute... BREAKING NEWS: Media/pollster pundits are now claiming that not only will Jagmeet eclipse "Trudeau-mania" from 1968 but will also eclipse "Beatle-mania from mid-1960's. In riding of Burnaby-South of all places. Who woulda thunk?

#Awesomeness

PS. DL - your previous ignorant/deceptive post? In German we literally call same "Katzenjammer" (cat's wail). :D

[Definition: Sometimes used to indicate a general state of depression or bewilderment. It has also been used as a term for a hangover, with the sufferer's groans of discomfort being likened to a wailing cat.]


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: DL on September 16, 2018, 06:59:17 am
Maybe Singh will do well in his first outing as NDP leader or maybe he’ll do badly. Maybe he will win the byelection in Burnaby South or maybe he’ll lose. We shall see. All I know is that Lotuslander has an almost perfect record of being dead wrong in his predictions. Maybe he will be right this time. Anything is possible and a broken clock can tell the right time twice a day


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 16, 2018, 08:20:37 am

I hate to be picked about grammar but the noun is a "coronation" and the verb is "to crown"...it should be "if Singh gets crowned in Burnaby"

After seeing the red squiggly line go under the word, I looked it up, so I am well aware. But I thought evoking crowns would be weird in this situation, so I went with the made up word :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: DL on September 16, 2018, 08:33:11 am
Well then maybe “anointed” is a better word. Coronation refers to a monarch receiving the crown


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 20, 2018, 05:40:36 pm
Polls closed in Windsor Lake (1/38 polls):

Liberal - 86
PC - 72
NDP - 13


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: 136or142 on September 20, 2018, 06:48:00 pm
30/38 polls
Ches Crosbie 1,245
Paul Antle 1,144
Kerri Claire Neil 634


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: mileslunn on September 20, 2018, 07:14:56 pm
Antle has conceded, Ches Crosbie has won the seat by about 200 votes (one poll left) so he will be the next MHA.  Had he lost, his leadership might have come under fire so he avoided that.  Compared to the 2015 results, this was a tough one to win as it was 66% Liberal to 20% PC whereas now appears to be 42% PC to 38% Liberal and 20% NDP so looks like the NDP has bounced back a bit.  Not sure what 2011 results were as this was a new riding, so does anyone have the transposed votes as it included both PC and NDP ridings but eyeballing the numbers looks like would have narrowly gone PC.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 20, 2018, 09:01:36 pm
Final results:

PC: 42.7% (+22.5)
Lib: 38.1% (-28.2)
NDP: 19.2% (+5.7%)

PC GAIN from Liberal (Swing: 25.3%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 04, 2018, 10:37:44 am
Couillard has disclaimed his seat, so Roberval by-election next year.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: DC Al Fine on October 04, 2018, 10:42:07 am
Couillard has disclaimed his seat, so Roberval by-election next year.

Wonder how that will go.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 04, 2018, 10:47:47 am
It was swingy before Couillard. Couillard won by 17%, but I assume CAQ will target it with him gone.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: mileslunn on October 05, 2018, 07:01:52 am
Couillard has disclaimed his seat, so Roberval by-election next year.

Wonder how that will go.

Would be shocked if PLQ holds this considering how poorly they did in adjacent ridings. Too rural for QS to be a factor, PQ did manage to stay competitive here unlike other regions, but I suspect with their poor showing they are now on life support. CAQ made inroads in this area so if I had to make a guess that would be mine.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 05, 2018, 08:46:03 am
Should be an easy CAQ pickup. Remember, the riding used to be Conservative federally. Not that it is a right wing area, but it's proof that it can vote for conservative parties. To me, the riding feels like it goes for a) popular incumbents/candidates and/or b) whatever the flavour of the month is. To me, that means CAQ in this case.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: trebor204 on October 13, 2018, 04:22:03 pm
Expect Federal By-Elections to be called shortly within the next couple of weeks.

There are currently 4 ridings that are vacated. In riding of Saint-Leonard-Saint Michel, the MP (Nicola Di Lorio) still hasn't officially resigned from his seat.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-politics-briefing-liberal-mp-says-hell-quit-but-now-might-try-to/


1) Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes and can this riding name get any #@!#$! longer (Ont) - May 14 - Oct 30. (The dates of the by-election must be announced)
2) Outremont (Que) - Aug 14 - Jan 30
3) Burnaby South (BC) - Sept 28-Mar 18
4) York–Simcoe (Ont) - Oct 12 - Mar 30
5) Saint-Leonard-Saint Michel - MP hasn't resigned yet.

The PM has now until Oct 30, to call a by-election for Leeds-Grenville, and he can now call a by-election for York-Simcoe.

If I recall, by-elections are normally called on a Sunday, which leaves  Oct 14, 21 or 28 as possible dates to call 4 by-elections, for possible by-elections date for Monday Nov 19, Nov 26, or Dec 3.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 18, 2018, 11:58:28 am


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)
Post by: MaxQue on October 24, 2018, 11:22:41 am
Cross-posted from the municipal thread:

The Montreal by-elections will be held on December 16th. To replace:

Chantal Rouleau, mayor of the Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Vision Montréal), new CAQ MNA for Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Frantz Benjamin, city councillor for St-Michel ward (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Independant, formely Union Montréal), now Liberal MNA for Viau.

Two new things to report there:
Projet Montréal selected their candidate for Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough mayor. Caroline Bourgeois, former chief of staff of Chantal Rouleau and communication director of the Montreal School Board. She is also a former city councillor for Pointe-aux-Prairies ward for Vision Montréal from 2009 to 2013 (defeated in 2013 for Coalition Montréal, the successor to Vision).

Their candidate in St-Michel is Nadine Raymond, vice-president of Conseil du Statut de la Femme (the advisory Quebec government board on gender equality) and a high-level manager at the Quebec YMCAs.

No news from Ensemble, except than their candidate in Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles won't be Giovanni Rapana, the city councillor for Rivière-des-Prairies who left the party (the party claims it was because he wasn't selected).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)
Post by: trebor204 on October 24, 2018, 11:36:28 am
BC NDP Sheila Malcolmson leaving Federal Politics to run for the BC NDPs


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/malcolmson-ndp-nanaimo-bc-1.4875932


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)
Post by: MaxQue on October 24, 2018, 11:41:27 am
There is also a by-election in Quebec City on December 9th, to replace Jonatan Julien (the new CAQ MNA for Charlesbourg) in the Neufchâtel-Lebourgneuf ward. He was elected for Équipe Labeaume in 2013 and 2017, became deputy mayor, but had a fallout with Labeame over the new police central and left the party.

Équipe Labeaume selected Dominique Turgeon, owner of a bakery/pastry restaurant.

Québec 21 (a right-wing party, main opposition on the council) selected Patrick Paquet, the former councillor for the ward. He was elected in 2005 for the Renouveau Municipal (Municipal Renewal, center-left), left it in 2008 for Équipe Labeaume (to "regain his freedom of speech"), was relected in 2009, left in 2012 (to "regain his freedom of speech", again) and joined Québec Autrement (left-wing), who merged into Démocratie Québec and he lost his seat in 2013. What a dizzying round of parties.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)
Post by: mileslunn on October 24, 2018, 12:17:11 pm
BC NDP Sheila Malcolmson leaving Federal Politics to run for the BC NDPs


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/malcolmson-ndp-nanaimo-bc-1.4875932

That is a traditional NDP riding so suspect the NDP will probably hold it although the Greens did surprisingly well so if it flips Greens most likely.  Tories have a remote chance, but they need to get back above 30% and have very strong splits.  Last time they won this riding was 2000, but that was when NDP had rock bottom support while Reform Party unlike present Tories did seem for whatever reason in BC to pull a significant number of traditional NDP voters.  It seems that group in the Interior has mostly started voting for parties on the right across the board, but on the Island mostly returned to traditional voting patterns.

In BC, due to Leonard Krog's win there is the Nanaimo by-election.  If the BC Liberals were to win it would be 43-43 thus the speaker breaking the tie so the government wouldn't necessarily fall, but would be a lot more vulnerable.  Due to Nanaimo's history, I would say NDP has strong edge, but lets remember unlike the 2005 boundaries, the 2009 boundaries are less solidly NDP.  Southern side of Nanaimo is working class and very NDP, but part of that got lopped off to Nanaimo-North Cowichan, while north side is more upper middle class so somewhat friendly to BC Liberals and redistribution did pick up part of Nanaimo-Parksville.  Still overall has more NDP strongholds and only the northern 1/3 perhaps is somewhat favourable to BC Liberals.  On the one hand usually by-elections favour the opposition so good news for the BC Liberals, but usually by-elections are a way to send a message to the government of the day without changing government.  Due to the current legislature make up, this will not be a no impact scenario thus why I think you will see higher turnout and fewer protest votes.  If NDP had a solid majority, then I think a BC Liberal pick up would be likely as one could vote for them as way to send a message without changing government, but because a BC Liberal win could trigger another election, that means people will vote more on what they favour, not use the by-election to do a protest vote.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Windsor Lake, NL provincial, Sept 20)
Post by: mileslunn on October 24, 2018, 12:18:03 pm


I suspect it will probably stay PC, but you never know.  Would be a huge blow to the PCs and boon to the Liberals if this flips, but suspect it will stay PC.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)
Post by: DL on October 24, 2018, 01:36:12 pm
BC NDP Sheila Malcolmson leaving Federal Politics to run for the BC NDPs


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/malcolmson-ndp-nanaimo-bc-1.4875932

Sheila Malcolmson is probably just about the strongest candidate the BC NDP could run in that byelection and it sounds like Horgan intends to call the byelection very quickly as soon as the seat is officially vacant and get in a quick win while government is still reasonably popular.

Who knows when and if a federal byelection would take place. Chances are the federal seat wouldn't be officially vacant until late November meaning no need to call a byelection until May - at which point we are getting close to the 2019 campaign...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 25, 2018, 10:26:30 am
Hebert says odds are Grits will compete in Burnaby, but Trudeau might wait till next year for Outremont to allow Bernier's party a shot. (https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2018/10/24/bad-timing-threatens-to-derail-jagmeet-singhs-efforts-to-get-a-seat-in-the-commons.html)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 28, 2018, 02:12:06 pm
Leeds-Grenville by-election called for December 3.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on October 28, 2018, 02:45:28 pm
Leeds-Grenville by-election called for December 3.

This is a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a Tory win here would be a shock.  I would say this for the parties running in terms of how to measure support

Tories:

Over 60% is a good night as last provincial election and federally in 2011 they cracked the 60% mark.  Under 50% is a bad showing as the only time at either level this has happened in recent memory is in 2015.

Liberals:

They got 40% in 2015, but considering the history of the riding would be surprised if they repeat this.  I would say anything over 30% is a good night for the Grits as when they get over 30% here they usually form government.  In the 20s not so great, while under 20% is a bad night.

NDP:

NDP has never been particularly strong here, even in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially they performed rather poorly.  I would say over 20% is a good night for them while under 10% is a bad one.  Teens is probably their average showing.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)
Post by: mileslunn on October 28, 2018, 02:47:49 pm
Hebert says odds are Grits will compete in Burnaby, but Trudeau might wait till next year for Outremont to allow Bernier's party a shot. (https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2018/10/24/bad-timing-threatens-to-derail-jagmeet-singhs-efforts-to-get-a-seat-in-the-commons.html)

Considering the Tories usually get in single digits here and the CAQ only got in the low teens, I don't think vote splitting really matters a lot here.  I suspect both the Tories and People's party will bomb this one badly as they usually do.  I think if it was in the regions of Quebec, then it might be more interesting, mind you Bernier's stance on supply management will probably make him pretty unpopular in rural Quebec considering how important dairy farming is to the rural economy.  The only areas in Quebec he might have support are areas with few dairy farms such as urban areas, areas too harsh in climate for farming such as Gaspésie, Cote Nord, Saguenay, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, and Nord.  And asides from Quebec City, Tories generally don't tend to fare too well in most of those areas.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)
Post by: MaxQue on October 28, 2018, 03:50:44 pm
Hebert says odds are Grits will compete in Burnaby, but Trudeau might wait till next year for Outremont to allow Bernier's party a shot. (https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2018/10/24/bad-timing-threatens-to-derail-jagmeet-singhs-efforts-to-get-a-seat-in-the-commons.html)

Considering the Tories usually get in single digits here and the CAQ only got in the low teens, I don't think vote splitting really matters a lot here.  I suspect both the Tories and People's party will bomb this one badly as they usually do.  I think if it was in the regions of Quebec, then it might be more interesting, mind you Bernier's stance on supply management will probably make him pretty unpopular in rural Quebec considering how important dairy farming is to the rural economy.  The only areas in Quebec he might have support are areas with few dairy farms such as urban areas, areas too harsh in climate for farming such as Gaspésie, Cote Nord, Saguenay, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, and Nord.  And asides from Quebec City, Tories generally don't tend to fare too well in most of those areas.

Saguenay and the Abitibi-Témiscamingue riding are full of farms.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)
Post by: mileslunn on October 28, 2018, 03:56:37 pm
Hebert says odds are Grits will compete in Burnaby, but Trudeau might wait till next year for Outremont to allow Bernier's party a shot. (https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2018/10/24/bad-timing-threatens-to-derail-jagmeet-singhs-efforts-to-get-a-seat-in-the-commons.html)

Considering the Tories usually get in single digits here and the CAQ only got in the low teens, I don't think vote splitting really matters a lot here.  I suspect both the Tories and People's party will bomb this one badly as they usually do.  I think if it was in the regions of Quebec, then it might be more interesting, mind you Bernier's stance on supply management will probably make him pretty unpopular in rural Quebec considering how important dairy farming is to the rural economy.  The only areas in Quebec he might have support are areas with few dairy farms such as urban areas, areas too harsh in climate for farming such as Gaspésie, Cote Nord, Saguenay, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, and Nord.  And asides from Quebec City, Tories generally don't tend to fare too well in most of those areas.

Saguenay and the Abitibi-Témiscamingue riding are full of farms.

Point taken although their population densities seem quite low for heavy agricultural areas, mind you I think they are largely limited to the river valleys, the rest being forests.  Off course that is where most live. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: adma on October 28, 2018, 06:34:42 pm
Tories:

Over 60% is a good night as last provincial election and federally in 2011 they cracked the 60% mark.  Under 50% is a bad showing as the only time at either level this has happened in recent memory is in 2015.

It depends on how far back you define "recent memory", of course, w/Ontario being a Liberal monolith pre-2004.

And as demonstration of how even outside of the Chretien era, L-G hasn't been immune to backlash against blue under certain conditions, it went Liberal already in 1988--the archetypal left-field "Free Trade Election" pickup.  (Not that anything like that is poised to happen now, of course.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on October 28, 2018, 07:59:07 pm
Tories:

Over 60% is a good night as last provincial election and federally in 2011 they cracked the 60% mark.  Under 50% is a bad showing as the only time at either level this has happened in recent memory is in 2015.

It depends on how far back you define "recent memory", of course, w/Ontario being a Liberal monolith pre-2004.

And as demonstration of how even outside of the Chretien era, L-G hasn't been immune to backlash against blue under certain conditions, it went Liberal already in 1988--the archetypal left-field "Free Trade Election" pickup.  (Not that anything like that is poised to happen now, of course.)

I am thinking of this century.  In 2000, the Canadian Alliance came within around 55 votes and this was almost their third seat.  Certainly in the past decade, its pretty much always been in the top 10 best Tory showings in Ontario, so unless they fall to single seats which I see as highly unlikely, you would expect them to do well here.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 16, 2018, 05:27:20 pm
Former NS Health Minister and failed NDP leadership candidate Dave Wilson has resigned his Sackville-Cobequid seat. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/dave-wilson-steps-down-ndp-mla-sackville-cobequid-1.4908415)

Should be an easy NDP hold.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 16, 2018, 07:59:43 pm
One of the few actual 'safe NDP' seats in Atlantic Canada.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 16, 2018, 09:25:48 pm
One of the few actual 'safe NDP' seats in Atlantic Canada.

Yup. Bluecollar working class suburb. Feels quite a bit like the Hamilton or Windsor of the Maritimes to be honest.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 19, 2018, 08:16:27 am




Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: UWS on November 21, 2018, 08:53:00 am




And even though Beauce will be only contested in the next general election, this same poll indicates that the race in Beauce between Richard Lehoux and Maxime Bernier with Leroux leading with 37.9 % of the voting intentions over Bernier's 34.5 %. But as the PLC won 22 % of the vote in Beauce in 2015 and as the PLC candidate would be getting 31 % in Beauce in the next election according to the website Too Close to Call, I think the PLC will try to get a strong candidate there in order to make Beauce winnable for Justin Trudeau's PLC in 2019 thanks to the division of the conservative vote there.

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/sondage-mainstreet-bernier-et-singh-en-danger-dans-leur-circonscription-respective-82515767698b4a7032203e6aafd35c2d

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: 136or142 on November 21, 2018, 10:08:15 am
Quitto Maggi doesn't have a great track record.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on November 21, 2018, 02:07:02 pm
Quitto Maggi doesn't have a great track record.

On provincial and federal results overall, Mainstreet is pretty good, but on municipal and riding less so.  For example in BC, the overall horserace numbers were right, but individual riding polls were way off.  For Quebec and Ontario, though the final seat projection was actually pretty close although the one big miss in Ontario was Parry Sound-Muskoka, which he predicted would go NDP and wasn't even close.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 21, 2018, 02:47:28 pm
I guess I can kind of see it. The Liberals are up in Quebec, so if they take some votes from the Bloc/NDP, and the 2018 Tory vote splits perfectly between Bernier and the Tories, I guess the Liberals could squeak through in a Gatineau-2008 type result.

Still think Bernier wins re-election though.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 21, 2018, 06:10:06 pm
Other federal by-elections will be held sometime in February. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/byelections-jagmeet-singh-liberals-1.4915391)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 22, 2018, 04:31:15 pm


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on November 22, 2018, 04:34:19 pm
This will be interesting as Jagmeet Singh's former riding is now open.  Will he run there or stay with Burnaby South.  I think due to his ties to the community, Brampton East would be a better bet.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: lilTommy on November 23, 2018, 08:13:37 am
This will be interesting as Jagmeet Singh's former riding is now open.  Will he run there or stay with Burnaby South.  I think due to his ties to the community, Brampton East would be a better bet.

Jagmeet has basically poured himself into Burnaby South, moving now would look very very bad, it would look opportunistic and nothing more (i'm a NDP'er and think he should stay put in Burnaby). Tough call really, and part of me thinks the LPC is doing this on purpose (mildly cynical eh). IF he did move to run in Brampton East, the NDP has basically written off Burnaby South ever again, really, and this is still a winnable seat.
Just leave it NDP, find a strong candidate in Brampton (there is an NDP city Councillor, Dhillon, who previously ran for them, start casting the net) the city has quite the NDP grassroots and developing base thanks in part to Singh. The party holds 3 of the 5 seats provincially. Even in 2015, without Singh, they polled above the national vote % in Brampton East.   


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 23, 2018, 08:34:39 am
This will be interesting as Jagmeet Singh's former riding is now open.  Will he run there or stay with Burnaby South.  I think due to his ties to the community, Brampton East would be a better bet.

Jagmeet has basically poured himself into Burnaby South, moving now would look very very bad, it would look opportunistic and nothing more (i'm a NDP'er and think he should stay put in Burnaby). Tough call really, and part of me thinks the LPC is doing this on purpose (mildly cynical eh). IF he did move to run in Brampton East, the NDP has basically written off Burnaby South ever again, really, and this is still a winnable seat.
Just leave it NDP, find a strong candidate in Brampton (there is an NDP city Councillor, Dhillon, who previously ran for them, start casting the net) the city has quite the NDP grassroots and developing base thanks in part to Singh. The party holds 3 of the 5 seats provincially. Even in 2015, without Singh, they polled above the national vote % in Brampton East.   

Tough call. He very well could go down in Burnaby, and presumably he'd win Brampton East in a landslide. You're right, it would be crazy opportunistic though.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 23, 2018, 02:22:12 pm


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 26, 2018, 11:32:57 am
Raj Grewal resigned to deal with a gambling problem, so Brampton East being freed up is just a weird coincidence, not the Liberals playing House of Cards style 4D chess.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: toaster on December 02, 2018, 09:51:25 pm
Jagmeet should run in Brampton.  It doesn't seem opportunistic, it seems smart.  No one is under an illusion that Jagmeet is moving there just for fun. It's because a seat came open.  Now one is opening in an area he formerly represented.  The NDP is better off playing it safe for their leader.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: MaxQue on December 02, 2018, 11:52:20 pm
Jagmeet should run in Brampton.  It doesn't seem opportunistic, it seems smart.  No one is under an illusion that Jagmeet is moving there just for fun. It's because a seat came open.  Now one is opening in an area he formerly represented.  The NDP is better off playing it safe for their leader.

Grewal cancelled his resignation and was kicked out of the Liberals for doing so.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: lilTommy on December 03, 2018, 07:14:50 am
There is chatter, that this was bait... the LPC was trying to bait Mr. Singh to run back "home", and it failed and this is the second now Liberal MP who looks messy about resigning-not-resigning. This is also starting to look very bad for Mark Holland who can't seem to do his job.

I don't agree with the idea he should have run in Brampton East AFTER committing to Burnaby. As mentioned above, jetting out of Burnaby South would have given the seat to the LPC, now it is competitive still but Jagmeet would have looked bad and that would have left a bad taste for those who would/could vote NDP. He showed class by sticking to the new seat, it's fitting with the narrative that he's not your typical politician, or some of the narrative around him. Yes Burnaby South was an opportunity to get a seat, but unlike most every other leader who has done this, Jagmeet committed and moved there and make this his home, not just a way into parliament.
Had Brampton East come vacant first, this would not be an issue. To me this has done nothing but help Jagmeet in Burnaby South (here's hoping)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on December 03, 2018, 12:30:19 pm
Are you all looking forward to the John “The Engineer” Turmel surge tonight?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on December 03, 2018, 06:37:31 pm
Only two hours until polls close.  My thinking is this is the Tories to lose so I would be shocked if the Tories don't hold this, but there is a slight outside chance of a Liberal pickup, but unlikely and if they win it would be a huge boon for the Liberals and massive embarrassment for the Tories.  Rather looking at the numbers here is how I would interpret results by party

Conservatives

Over 60% is a very good night.  Federally in 2011 and provincially in 2018, the Tories got over this

50-60% a good showing, but nothing too unusual, that is usually what they get around

Under 50% This is one of the few ridings where Tories usually get over 50% so anything under 50% even if they win is a bad night.  Even in the 2014 provincial election and 2004 federal they cracked the 50% mark despite poor showings overall.  They did fall below in 2015 federally however, but that was not a good showing either.

Liberals


Over 40% - Excellent showing even if they fall short as in the last quarter century, they've only done this twice (1993 and 2015) and both were solid majorities


30-40% - Very good showing, almost anytime the Liberals have gotten over 30%, they've gone on to form government


20-30% - Okay as this seems to be their default but not great


Under 20% - Bad night, usually if they get under 20% they do poorly overall, provincial 2018 and federal 2008 and 2011.


NDP

Over 20% - Outstanding showing, even 2011 federally and 2018 provincially they were unable to crack the 20% mark.

10-20% - Average to good showing

Under 10% - Lousy showing but considering the NDP's polling numbers now, wouldn't be surprised if they get under 10%.

Too bad the PPC wasn't able to put up a candidate as this might be the first look at whether they are gaining any traction thus risk of vote splitting or as Nanos suggests nowhere.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 03, 2018, 09:06:47 pm
Tories doing as expected so far.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on December 03, 2018, 09:14:57 pm
Greens and Dippers running even with 25 polls in.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 03, 2018, 09:19:29 pm


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Poirot on December 03, 2018, 10:02:02 pm
so far 59% Conservative, 34% Liberal, NDP and Green around 3%. That makes Turmel only 3% from third place.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: President Phil Scott on December 03, 2018, 10:05:57 pm
so far 59% Conservative, 34% Liberal, NDP and Green around 3%. That makes Turmel only 3% from third place.

Not sure, I don't really get what that means. Which party is Turkel?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on December 03, 2018, 10:11:01 pm
So far Tories doing not too bad, it will be interesting to see if they get over or under 60%.  While Liberals well behind, they are over the 30% mark so from a historical perspective that is actually fairly good for this riding and bodes well for them overall.  NDP is doing horrible down in low single digits.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Poirot on December 03, 2018, 10:18:53 pm
so far 59% Conservative, 34% Liberal, NDP and Green around 3%. That makes Turmel only 3% from third place.

Not sure, I don't really get what that means. Which party is Turkel?

John Turmel is running as Independent. He's been a candidate in nearly 100 hundred elections. He ussually doesn't get many votes. He's lucky not all by-elections took place at the same time. I imagine he will run in one from the next group of by-elections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: President Phil Scott on December 03, 2018, 10:55:46 pm
so far 59% Conservative, 34% Liberal, NDP and Green around 3%. That makes Turmel only 3% from third place.

Not sure, I don't really get what that means. Which party is Turkel?

John Turmel is running as Independent. He's been a candidate in nearly 100 hundred elections. He ussually doesn't get many votes. He's lucky not all by-elections took place at the same time. I imagine he will run in one from the next group of by-elections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel)

Watch out when he makes the ballot in every district next year!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: trebor204 on December 03, 2018, 11:06:27 pm
Turmel just got 100 votes!
The gap between the NDP and Green is now at 28


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on December 03, 2018, 11:09:23 pm
Turmel just got 100 votes!
The gap between the NDP and Green is now at 28

775-796 now.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on December 04, 2018, 12:28:58 am
Looking at the results I would say the following.

The Tories won quite handidly, but this is a fairly safe Conservative riding so that is to be expected.  I would say they had a good showing as up almost 10%, but still got slightly less than they got in 2011 or what they go provincially this past June.

Liberals also had a good night as despite losing badly, they managed to get 35% which in the past quarter of a century, every time they've gotten over 1/3 of the popular vote in this riding they've won a majority while under 30% usually means opposition and under 20% means third place.  So even if they didn't come close to winning and were a bit below their high in 2015, it was still relatively good compared to what they usually get here so the polls showing them in the mid 40s in Ontario make a lot of sense, although the Tory showing suggests they are probably doing a bit better than the low 30s polls suggests.

This has never been an NDP friendly riding, but still 3% is an absolute disaster.  It seems the progressive vote is largely uniting behind the Liberals and NDP is getting squeezed out.  Off course they've had either bad showings like this such as Vaughan in 2010 where they got only 1% yet 6 months later went on to their best showing nationally.  I think Outremont and Burnaby South will be better indicators of where they are.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on December 04, 2018, 12:30:08 am
I am disappointed in the lack of Turmelmentum.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: 136or142 on December 04, 2018, 05:07:14 am
Looking at the results I would say the following.

The Tories won quite handidly, but this is a fairly safe Conservative riding so that is to be expected.  I would say they had a good showing as up almost 10%, but still got slightly less than they got in 2011 or what they go provincially this past June.

Liberals also had a good night as despite losing badly, they managed to get 35% which in the past quarter of a century, every time they've gotten over 1/3 of the popular vote in this riding they've won a majority while under 30% usually means opposition and under 20% means third place.  So even if they didn't come close to winning and were a bit below their high in 2015, it was still relatively good compared to what they usually get here so the polls showing them in the mid 40s in Ontario make a lot of sense, although the Tory showing suggests they are probably doing a bit better than the low 30s polls suggests.

This has never been an NDP friendly riding, but still 3% is an absolute disaster.  It seems the progressive vote is largely uniting behind the Liberals and NDP is getting squeezed out.  Off course they've had either bad showings like this such as Vaughan in 2010 where they got only 1% yet 6 months later went on to their best showing nationally.  I think Outremont and Burnaby South will be better indicators of where they are.

The NDP candidate in the riding was the same as in the recent provincial election (Michelle Taylor.)  In the provincial election she received 19.8% of the vote.

The provincial results were:
P.C: 61.3%
NDP: 19.8
Liberal 13.4
Green: 4.8
Libertarian: 0.8


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on December 04, 2018, 12:44:30 pm
Looking at the results I would say the following.

The Tories won quite handidly, but this is a fairly safe Conservative riding so that is to be expected.  I would say they had a good showing as up almost 10%, but still got slightly less than they got in 2011 or what they go provincially this past June.

Liberals also had a good night as despite losing badly, they managed to get 35% which in the past quarter of a century, every time they've gotten over 1/3 of the popular vote in this riding they've won a majority while under 30% usually means opposition and under 20% means third place.  So even if they didn't come close to winning and were a bit below their high in 2015, it was still relatively good compared to what they usually get here so the polls showing them in the mid 40s in Ontario make a lot of sense, although the Tory showing suggests they are probably doing a bit better than the low 30s polls suggests.

This has never been an NDP friendly riding, but still 3% is an absolute disaster.  It seems the progressive vote is largely uniting behind the Liberals and NDP is getting squeezed out.  Off course they've had either bad showings like this such as Vaughan in 2010 where they got only 1% yet 6 months later went on to their best showing nationally.  I think Outremont and Burnaby South will be better indicators of where they are.

The NDP candidate in the riding was the same as in the recent provincial election (Michelle Taylor.)  In the provincial election she received 19.8% of the vote.

The provincial results were:
P.C: 61.3%
NDP: 19.8
Liberal 13.4
Green: 4.8
Libertarian: 0.8

Comparing to the provincial results, Tories a bit below but not too far off.  NDP significantly lower, Greens slightly lower, while Liberals a lot higher mind you Trudeau has decent approval numbers in Ontario while Wynne was extremely unpopular.  Still this is a fairly safe Tory riding, the last time another party has won here against a united right was 1988 federally although in 1993 the Liberals would have held this even if you combined the PCs + Reform Party, but in 1997 and 2000 they won on a split right.  Provincially I am not sure this has gone anything but Tory as even during the Grossman disaster in 1987, they held this.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Poirot on December 08, 2018, 10:22:25 pm
Quebec by-election on December 10 in Roberval to replace former Premier Couillard.

I imagine it's an easy win for the CAQ, close to the general election they won, no real reason to vote to be in opposition, no incumbent Premier running this time, no permanent leader for PLQ or PQ.

CAQ's canddiate is Nancy Guillemette. She is a former councillor in Roberval and head a mental health organization. PLQ is running William Laroche, a 27 year old councillor in Chambord and president of a cowboy festival. 

Four candidates from the general election are running again. For the PQ the same 21 year old is running again, QS has the same chef as candidate and the Quebec Conservative and a marginal party also have the same canadiate. The Greens didn't have a candidate in the general election but this time the party leader Alex Tyrrell is running. He often runs in by-elections. It's about the tenth times he is a candidate and he is young, he could be a threat to John Turmel's record!   


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on December 09, 2018, 01:15:57 am
I would say CAQ are the favourites as they were competitive in surrounding ridings and still in their honeymoon phase. PLQ did horrible in all surrounding ridings and won only because it was the riding of the premier. Too rural and not enough younger voters for QS but wouldn't be surprised if their vote share increases. Traditionally a PQ stronghold but with how weak a state the PQ is in don't see them winning this.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 10, 2018, 09:08:36 pm


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Poirot on December 10, 2018, 09:11:28 pm
Roberval for the Quebec Assembly

With half the polling stations reporting:
CAQ 52% PQ 19% PLQ 15% QS 11%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on December 10, 2018, 09:39:01 pm
Not a huge surprise.  Considering this riding is over 95% Francophone it was more of a Philippe Couillard than PLQ riding.  Too rural to go QS, while PQ could be competitive if they were doing better in the polls, but in many ways they appear to be dying a slow death thus not a factor, so makes a lot of sense to see this flip to the CAQ.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on December 10, 2018, 10:29:27 pm
Final results are:

CAQ 54.53%
PQ 17.51%
PLQ 15.21%
QS 10.32%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)
Post by: MaxQue on December 11, 2018, 03:07:45 pm
There is also a by-election in Quebec City on December 9th, to replace Jonatan Julien (the new CAQ MNA for Charlesbourg) in the Neufchâtel-Lebourgneuf ward. He was elected for Équipe Labeaume in 2013 and 2017, became deputy mayor, but had a fallout with Labeame over the new police central and left the party.

Équipe Labeaume selected Dominique Turgeon, owner of a bakery/pastry restaurant.

Québec 21 (a right-wing party, main opposition on the council) selected Patrick Paquet, the former councillor for the ward. He was elected in 2005 for the Renouveau Municipal (Municipal Renewal, center-left), left it in 2008 for Équipe Labeaume (to "regain his freedom of speech"), was relected in 2009, left in 2012 (to "regain his freedom of speech", again) and joined Québec Autrement (left-wing), who merged into Démocratie Québec and he lost his seat in 2013. What a dizzying round of parties.

Québec 21 won with 2264 votes (49.3%) against 2139 votes for the Labeaume candidate (46.5%) with 193 votes (4.2%) for a left-wing candidate.

Montreal by-elections next weekend.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Tintrlvr on December 12, 2018, 09:06:43 pm
Final results are:

CAQ 54.53%
PQ 17.51%
PLQ 15.21%
QS 10.32%

Have there been any province-wide polls since the GE? CAQ victory is not a surprise, but third place and just 15% is shockingly bad for the PLQ.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: adma on December 13, 2018, 08:18:20 am
Have there been any province-wide polls since the GE? CAQ victory is not a surprise, but third place and just 15% is shockingly bad for the PLQ.

Though it's probably not terribly unlike what would have happened in Couillard's absence.  And whatever the provincewide polls, the Anglo core's solid.  (Interesting, though, if we have a province-wide 2nd place for QS situation brewing)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: DC Al Fine on December 13, 2018, 10:47:06 am
Have there been any province-wide polls since the GE? CAQ victory is not a surprise, but third place and just 15% is shockingly bad for the PLQ.

Though it's probably not terribly unlike what would have happened in Couillard's absence.  And whatever the provincewide polls, the Anglo core's solid.  (Interesting, though, if we have a province-wide 2nd place for QS situation brewing)

Mainstreet did one last month. Nothing to write home about; CAQ and QS up 2%, PQ and PLQ down by the same.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Tintrlvr on December 13, 2018, 12:13:29 pm
Have there been any province-wide polls since the GE? CAQ victory is not a surprise, but third place and just 15% is shockingly bad for the PLQ.

Though it's probably not terribly unlike what would have happened in Couillard's absence.  And whatever the provincewide polls, the Anglo core's solid.  (Interesting, though, if we have a province-wide 2nd place for QS situation brewing)

PLQ has never done worse than 25% in that riding before (previous nadir was in 1998), so it's definitely a worse result for them than a typical losing-the-GE result. The Anglo core being solid doesn't help the PLQ if they're getting barely out of single digits with Francophones.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: adma on December 13, 2018, 06:40:21 pm
PLQ has never done worse than 25% in that riding before (previous nadir was in 1998), so it's definitely a worse result for them than a typical losing-the-GE result. The Anglo core being solid doesn't help the PLQ if they're getting barely out of single digits with Francophones.

But that was already the universal trend in the recent general election: the PLQ achieving by far their worst results ever in the vast bulk of Francophone ridings.  It's just that the byelection "liberated" Roberval to catch up with the trend--following so soon after the GE, it's more like an Couillard-free appendix to the same...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Quebec City, District 7, municipal, Dec 9)
Post by: MaxQue on December 17, 2018, 12:58:39 pm
Cross-posted from the municipal thread:

The Montreal by-elections will be held on December 16th. To replace:

Chantal Rouleau, mayor of the Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Vision Montréal), new CAQ MNA for Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Frantz Benjamin, city councillor for St-Michel ward (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Independant, formely Union Montréal), now Liberal MNA for Viau.

Two new things to report there:
Projet Montréal selected their candidate for Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough mayor. Caroline Bourgeois, former chief of staff of Chantal Rouleau and communication director of the Montreal School Board. She is also a former city councillor for Pointe-aux-Prairies ward for Vision Montréal from 2009 to 2013 (defeated in 2013 for Coalition Montréal, the successor to Vision).

Their candidate in St-Michel is Nadine Raymond, vice-president of Conseil du Statut de la Femme (the advisory Quebec government board on gender equality) and a high-level manager at the Quebec YMCAs.

No news from Ensemble, except than their candidate in Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles won't be Giovanni Rapana, the city councillor for Rivière-des-Prairies who left the party (the party claims it was because he wasn't selected).

Projet gained the mayorship of Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Caroline Bourgeois (Projet Montréal) 5314 votes (48.63%; +6.00)
Manuel Guedes (Ensemble Montréal) 4951 votes (45.31%; -12.06)
Marius Minier (Independent) 662 votes (6.06%)

Manuel Guedes was a borough councillor for Pointe-aux-Prairies for Équipe Denis Coderre from 2013 to 2017, when he lost his seat by 30 votes.

Marius Minier was elected as one of the councillors in 3-seater Mercier in 1974 for Citizens' Movement (left-wing opposition to the autocratic rule of right-winger Jean Drapeau) and lost in 1978 (when the council became all single-member seats) in Longue-Pointe. He came back in 1998 as a Vision councillor for Pointe-aux-Trembles. and held office until 2005 when he tried to become borough mayor and lost as a candidate of right-wing "Team Ville-Marie".

In Saint-Michel, Ensemble kept the seat.

Josué Corvil (Ensemble Montréal) 943 votes (40.45%; -21.50)
Nadine Raymond (Projet Montréal) 772 votes (33.12%; -4.93)
Réginald Pierre (Independent) 616 votes (26.43%)

Josué Corvil is a municipal librairian. Réginald Pierre was an employee of the former local MNA, David Heurtel.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 29, 2018, 08:04:53 pm


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: brucejoel99 on December 30, 2018, 01:46:42 pm


Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: lilTommy on December 31, 2018, 08:32:04 am


Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.

The choice of a more Centre-Right or pure Centrist candidate will help, if only marginally so, Mr Singh. She will be at every occasion targeted for her links to the arguably corrupt and very fiscally conservative BCLiberals. This could also be strategic for the LPC as well, they may be trying to attract some moderate conservative voters who would vote BCL provincially and CON federally. What bear trap around child care? The NDP ran and still supports a "a national, federally-funded child care program" I might be missing a BC specific issue?

I do think Singh looks better then he did when he first announced he'd run; he lives here with his family now and has been campaigning ferociously for months. He took the high ground and failed to fall for the dirty LPC trick of baiting Brampton East. The Greens not running a candidate makes Singh the only Left-Progressive option for voters in this traditional Left-Progressive seat.
While Burnaby South was close in 2015, it was not in 2011 (NDP vs CON), but before 2012 this was split between Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West, but NDP since 2004, and BNW even before that (Svend Robinson's old seat).
The BC government is still relatively popular, and I do not see voters using this by-election to punish the NDP (ala the 90s), the most recent Nov polling has the BCNDP only -2 points, but the BCLiberals -7 and the Greens -3.
As for Federal polling, the terrible late Nov polling that had the NDP around 14%, has rebounded slightly up to around 16-18%.
 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: brucejoel99 on December 31, 2018, 02:21:54 pm


Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.

The choice of a more Centre-Right or pure Centrist candidate will help, if only marginally so, Mr Singh. She will be at every occasion targeted for her links to the arguably corrupt and very fiscally conservative BCLiberals. This could also be strategic for the LPC as well, they may be trying to attract some moderate conservative voters who would vote BCL provincially and CON federally. What bear trap around child care? The NDP ran and still supports a "a national, federally-funded child care program" I might be missing a BC specific issue?

I do think Singh looks better then he did when he first announced he'd run; he lives here with his family now and has been campaigning ferociously for months. He took the high ground and failed to fall for the dirty LPC trick of baiting Brampton East. The Greens not running a candidate makes Singh the only Left-Progressive option for voters in this traditional Left-Progressive seat.
While Burnaby South was close in 2015, it was not in 2011 (NDP vs CON), but before 2012 this was split between Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West, but NDP since 2004, and BNW even before that (Svend Robinson's old seat).
The BC government is still relatively popular, and I do not see voters using this by-election to punish the NDP (ala the 90s), the most recent Nov polling has the BCNDP only -2 points, but the BCLiberals -7 and the Greens -3.
As for Federal polling, the terrible late Nov polling that had the NDP around 14%, has rebounded slightly up to around 16-18%.
 

Lol I meant that if Singh starts talking about childcare, he'll find himself debating against somebody who has direct experience w/ daycare centers & is presumably much more well-versed in childcare as a policy area than Singh. It would be electorally fatal optics for Singh if he were to be perceived as talking down to a woman who likely knows far more than he does about the topic.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: lilTommy on January 02, 2019, 08:28:53 am


Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.

The choice of a more Centre-Right or pure Centrist candidate will help, if only marginally so, Mr Singh. She will be at every occasion targeted for her links to the arguably corrupt and very fiscally conservative BCLiberals. This could also be strategic for the LPC as well, they may be trying to attract some moderate conservative voters who would vote BCL provincially and CON federally. What bear trap around child care? The NDP ran and still supports a "a national, federally-funded child care program" I might be missing a BC specific issue?

I do think Singh looks better then he did when he first announced he'd run; he lives here with his family now and has been campaigning ferociously for months. He took the high ground and failed to fall for the dirty LPC trick of baiting Brampton East. The Greens not running a candidate makes Singh the only Left-Progressive option for voters in this traditional Left-Progressive seat.
While Burnaby South was close in 2015, it was not in 2011 (NDP vs CON), but before 2012 this was split between Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West, but NDP since 2004, and BNW even before that (Svend Robinson's old seat).
The BC government is still relatively popular, and I do not see voters using this by-election to punish the NDP (ala the 90s), the most recent Nov polling has the BCNDP only -2 points, but the BCLiberals -7 and the Greens -3.
As for Federal polling, the terrible late Nov polling that had the NDP around 14%, has rebounded slightly up to around 16-18%.
 

Lol I meant that if Singh starts talking about childcare, he'll find himself debating against somebody who has direct experience w/ daycare centers & is presumably much more well-versed in childcare as a policy area than Singh. It would be electorally fatal optics for Singh if he were to be perceived as talking down to a woman who likely knows far more than he does about the topic.

AH, I get ya. Agreed... I don't think Childcare will be "the" issue, or really a issue... I don't even think she is talking much about it.
Singh will talk Housing, Pipelines, Opiod crisis/drugs more then anything I think.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 02, 2019, 02:04:29 pm


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on January 02, 2019, 05:03:13 pm


My guess based on the riding's history and what's at stake is it stays NDP, although would make politics very interesting if the BC Liberals did win it.  They would mean the speaker would have to be breaking a lot of ties.  Also BC Liberals might try to convince Plecas to rejoin the party if he resigns as speaker as this would allow the government to fall.  Although actually I think the BC Liberals have better odds if they wait until 2021 then going now.  Their past 16 year stint in power is too fresh in too many people's minds and NDP hasn't been in power long enough to really screw up.  Likewise with the past scandal and bad relations between Plecas and the BC Liberals, I think the only way the government falls is if both the BC Liberals win Nanaimo and Plecas resigns (Abbotsford South is a safe BC Liberal riding).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on January 03, 2019, 03:37:28 pm
Looks like federally we will have four by-elections before the next election as any vacancy after January 20, 2019 will be left empty.  So for the final ones here are my thoughts.

Burnaby South: Looking to be a close race between NDP and Liberals.  NDP has the advantage of it being the leader and the Greens not running a candidate (although those supporters could also go Liberal too, although won't go Tory) and its one of the few ridings where more oppose than support the pipeline.  Also some Blue Liberals and Red Tories might swing over to the Tories so boosting the Tories although not enough to win, although hurting the Liberals.  For the Liberals, they are ahead in BC while NDP not doing so well, Trudeau is still reasonably popular in BC, especially the Lower Mainland, and Singh has been quite lackluster as leader.  There is a very long chance of a Tory win but would require a perfect three way split and the Tories doing better than expected.  If the Greens had put up the candidate, the Tories would have much better odds although still not favoured, but better chance as all Green votes will come from the Liberals and NDP not the Tories.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith: NDP heavily favoured, but Greens did well on the south part of the Island so if the NDP does lose this, which I don't think they will, Greens would be favoured.  Liberals have never been very strong here so if they win here, they are looking at 30+ seats in BC.  Tories have some support, but need strong splits as well as while they may do better than 2015, they are still a ways away from returning to 2011 levels which they would need to have a realistic shot here.

Outremont: Most likely a Liberal pickup and probably not even close.  Singh's poor performance in Quebec won't help, only silver lining is this is a fairly progressive riding although provincially it went PLQ not QS.  BQ has never been a factor here not even during the height of the sponsorship scandal and Tories will be lucky if they can just get their deposit back.

York-Simcoe: Fairly safe Tory riding so would be a huge shock if they don't win here.  Probably in the top 10 most conservative ridings in Ontario, so if they cannot win here they are in big trouble.  Liberals are very unlikely to win here, but if they can stay above 30% that is good news for them overall.  Usually when they get over 30% here they form government, in the 20s opposition and in teens fall to third.  NDP has never been a factor here.  PPC won't win, but this might be the first clue on how much impact they will have in terms of vote splitting.  Theoretically this is a riding the Liberals could win with strong vote splits on the right like you saw in the 90s, but the PPC is a long ways away from having the support the Reform Party did. 

Going by parties:

Liberals: Outremont is pretty much a shoo-in so one pick up.  Good shot in Burnaby South so two pick ups.  Nanaimo-Ladysmith and York-Simcoe are extremely unlikely to go Liberal, a win in either suggest a super majority, similar to Tories in 1984 and 1958.

Conservatives: York-Simcoe is fairly safe, so hold what they have, but gaining anything will be tough.  Burnaby South and Nanaimo-Ladysmith are possibilities but really long shots although if the Tories were going to get a majority you would expect them to be competitive (not necessarily win, they didn't in 2011) in those two.  Don't stand a chance in Outremont.

NDP: They are trying to hang onto three and holding all three is unlikely.  Outremont they are likely to lose, Burnaby South is in danger but somewhat better odds of holding, while Nanaimo-Ladysmith is the only one I would say they are still heavily favoured in.  York-Simcoe don't stand a chance.

Other Parties: BQ no chance in Outremont.  Greens only possible in Nanaimo-Ladysmith but unlikely.  PPC zero chance in any although slight chance they deny the Tories a win in one, but even that highly unlikely.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 09, 2019, 12:51:09 pm


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on January 09, 2019, 03:46:23 pm
My guesses:

Burnaby South: Going to be a tight one, but if I had to guess, I would guess the Liberals, but wouldn't be surprised if the NDP wins this.  Tories should put up a decent showing as they have a solid base here, but not enough to win.  Somewhere between 25-35% for Tories.

Outremont: Should be an easy Liberal pickup, the question is more margin.  If under 10 points, then good news for NDP in Quebec in that they can minimize their losses, if over 20 points sign of a possible shutout in Quebec.

York-Simcoe: Tories will off course win this, but thresholds to watch are, When Liberals get over 30% here they usually win, if in the 20s opposition, and if in teens third place.  For Tories, under 50% usually means loss, in the 50s minority government of some type, while over 60% a Tory majority.  My guess is Tories get in the 50s, but Liberals get in the 30s due to weakness of NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 09, 2019, 05:21:13 pm


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 09, 2019, 06:02:09 pm


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on January 11, 2019, 11:43:24 pm

And the British Columbia right shoots itself in the foot.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Poirot on January 12, 2019, 10:19:05 pm
Pollster Quito Maggi's take on the three federal byelections based on his polling a couple of montha ago. He has Singh in third place. The Chinese population in the riding is 40%. Survey respondents in Mandarin and Cantonese put him in distant third. Singh was leading or in close three way race with English respondents. Conservatives are popular with Chinese voters.

For Outremont his polling suggested a runaway win for the Liberals. Maggi thinks there could be a Liberal surprise in York Simcoe due to popularity of local candidate and if NDP is very low.

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/11/turnout-will-be-deciding-factor-in-burnaby-south-byelection-pollster/ (https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/11/turnout-will-be-deciding-factor-in-burnaby-south-byelection-pollster/)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 15, 2019, 04:07:29 pm
He now says Singh leads bigly but cautions about volatility. (https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/singh-leading-in-burnaby-south-by-election/)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: lilTommy on January 15, 2019, 04:59:31 pm
He now says Singh leads bigly but cautions about volatility. (https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/singh-leading-in-burnaby-south-by-election/)

Undecideds were the second largest group (27%); but Singh was still 12% ahead (29%) of the Liberals and Conservatives who were tied (17%)

some interesting demographics, decided/leaning only:
LPC candidate Wang leads among Cantonese by a good margin 34% vs Singh at 25% Shin (CON) 21%. But Singh is tied among Mandarin speakers with Shin, 27%, Wang 23%. What would be the reason for the divide? Please correct me but, Cantonese is mainly of HK correct? so perhaps wealthier?
It's English speakers that Singh dominates, 44% vs 25% for Wang, 20% Shin.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: VPH on January 15, 2019, 10:13:20 pm
Looks like leftist former NDP MP Svend Robinson is returning to politics, running for the NDP against incumbent Liberal MP Terry Beech in Burnaby North-Seymour. Robinson is known for being vociferously anti-American and anti-Israel.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/svend-robinson-political-comeback-1.4979022


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Jeppe on January 15, 2019, 11:02:32 pm
Karen Wang, the Liberal candidate in Burnaby-South is receiving backlash for some racial comments about Singh on WeChat.

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/01/15/as-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-campaigns-in-burnaby-south-a-liberal-candidate-brings-race-into-the-byelection.html (https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/01/15/as-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-campaigns-in-burnaby-south-a-liberal-candidate-brings-race-into-the-byelection.html)

Despite the interview hiccup, it seems quite possible that Singh runs away with this race in the end. Mainstreet also usually underestimates NDP support quite a bit too, but we'll see.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: lilTommy on January 16, 2019, 08:14:08 am
Looks like leftist former NDP MP Svend Robinson is returning to politics, running for the NDP against incumbent Liberal MP Terry Beech in Burnaby North-Seymour. Robinson is known for being vociferously anti-American and anti-Israel.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/svend-robinson-political-comeback-1.4979022

It will be a very tough race for Robinson, he represented the old Burnaby-Douglas from 1979-2004, Burnaby North-Seymour takes in about 60%+ of his old riding (if you know the area, everything north of Lougheed HWY) but the North Shore portion is mostly LPC/CON.

Most New Democrats are very excited about this, Svend is a known left-wing member of the party who has been a leader in fighting for Equality rights, Environmental issues before they were "cool" or even widely held (first openly gay MP in Canada) much like Nikki Ashton in terms of being a Democratic Socialist for the most part. Robinson is not Anti-American, he's anti-capitalist, there is a big distinction. He like most NDP members are not anti-Israel but rather anti-Israeli occupation (not against the state but against some of the states actions and occupations of Palestinian territories) I think it's unfair to slap these labels, when there not totally accurate.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: lilTommy on January 16, 2019, 08:28:30 am
Karen Wang, the Liberal candidate in Burnaby-South is receiving backlash for some racial comments about Singh on WeChat.

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/01/15/as-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-campaigns-in-burnaby-south-a-liberal-candidate-brings-race-into-the-byelection.html (https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/01/15/as-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-campaigns-in-burnaby-south-a-liberal-candidate-brings-race-into-the-byelection.html)

Despite the interview hiccup, it seems quite possible that Singh runs away with this race in the end. Mainstreet also usually underestimates NDP support quite a bit too, but we'll see.

That's really disappointing to see, that to me it's a sign of desperation at worst and really bad optics of very targeted campaigning at best. An interesting article on the South Asian - Chinese rivalry though.

I think it's actually amazing that the three main parties are all running POC candidates; Chinese, Sikh and Korean.
I think you will see many of the NDPs Asian/local area "stars" come out here as well, Jenny Kwan MP has been helping Singh campaign, and word is that Kennedy Stewart will likely come into the riding as well.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 16, 2019, 08:30:45 am
Looks like leftist former NDP MP Svend Robinson is returning to politics, running for the NDP against incumbent Liberal MP Terry Beech in Burnaby North-Seymour. Robinson is known for being vociferously anti-American and anti-Israel.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/svend-robinson-political-comeback-1.4979022

I thought he was mostly known for stealing that ring?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 16, 2019, 12:52:33 pm


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: lilTommy on January 16, 2019, 01:11:04 pm

Liberals have till 2/6/19 to nominate a candidate from what I'm reading, so they have some time to get their act together IF they want to run a new candidate.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: DC Al Fine on January 16, 2019, 02:57:48 pm
A nice break for Singh.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: UWS on January 16, 2019, 03:08:16 pm

Liberals have till 2/6/19 to nominate a candidate from what I'm reading, so they have some time to get their act together IF they want to run a new candidate.

Maybe Adam Pankratz who trailed Kennedy Stewart by just less than 2 percentage points in 2015.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnaby_South#Election_results


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: adma on January 16, 2019, 06:43:10 pm
I think it's actually amazing that the three main parties are all running POC candidates; Chinese, Sikh and Korean.

It may also be an unspoken reason why the People's candidate is polling so high.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: King of Kensington on January 17, 2019, 03:28:55 pm
I think it's actually amazing that the three main parties are all running POC candidates; Chinese, Sikh and Korean.

It may also be an unspoken reason why the People's candidate is polling so high.

Except that the People's Party polls most strongly in the Chinese community.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: 136or142 on January 18, 2019, 09:03:54 pm
Looks like leftist former NDP MP Svend Robinson is returning to politics, running for the NDP against incumbent Liberal MP Terry Beech in Burnaby North-Seymour. Robinson is known for being vociferously anti-American and anti-Israel.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/svend-robinson-political-comeback-1.4979022

I thought he was mostly known for stealing that ring?

It will be interesting to see the right wing media reaction to this in B.C once Robinson receives the nomination and then as the election comes closer.

If the right wing media reaction is to get on its high horse about this, it provides an interesting contrast with the treatment it gave Christy Clark:

In 2013, the Christy Clark government was involved in the cynical 'quick wins' scandal.

Following the 2017 election it was revealed:
1.the Christy Clark government kept the 'financial dumpster fire' at ICBC under raps, not only from the public, but even from the minister responsible, Todd Stone, as even he only received a redacted report on ICBC's financial situation.

2.The Christy Clark government turned a blind eye to money laundering at B.C casinos that may have reached up to $1 billion a year.

3.Christy Clark cheated to win the B.C Liberal leadership.

While there may not have been anything illegal for what Christy Clark did or did not do in any of these things, this was her 'punishment':

She joined the board of Shaw Communications which, through Corus, owns Global Television (and the right wing Global News) and the right wing CKNW radio.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the matter of Christy Clark and byelections, there has been some mention of Christy Clark possibly being made the nominee of the Federal Liberals in the Burnaby South by-election.  This mention, to the degree that it has been picked up in the national media, shows the poor work of those who picked up this 'story.'  It is based on nothing more than the speculation of a columnist for the Georgia Straight, a free weekly paper, named Charlie Smith.  In addition to Smith himself stating that the names on his list were speculation, Smith is something of a nutty conspiracy theorist, so even his speculation needs to be taken with massive amounts of salt.  The wire services and who ever else reported on this really should have made themselves aware of Charlie Smith beforehand.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 19, 2019, 10:36:31 am


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: 136or142 on January 19, 2019, 11:44:25 am


A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

Of course, given the unfortunate way the Gordon Campbell government ended, and the entire tenure of the government of Christy Clark, not having been part of the executive is very likely a major advantage.

He also has a solid resume: Before being elected to the Legislature, Richard was a programmer analyst at TRIUMF, Canada's national particle research facility. In 1976, he earned a Combined Honours Bachelor of Science degree from UBC in physics and mathematics, and in 1980 received a Master of Sciences from UBC in Applied Mathematics. Richard worked at UBC's Department of Mathematics from 1975 to 1979. In 1979, he started working at TRIUMF, and in 1982 became a programmer analyst. Richard attended the United States Particle Accelerator School at Berkeley in 1989 and once again in 1990 at Harvard University.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: I Miss Inslee Already on January 19, 2019, 11:55:06 am
I predict we will see two Liberal gains.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on January 19, 2019, 06:34:02 pm


A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

Of course, given the unfortunate way the Gordon Campbell government ended, and the entire tenure of the government of Christy Clark, not having been part of the executive is very likely a major advantage.

He also has a solid resume: Before being elected to the Legislature, Richard was a programmer analyst at TRIUMF, Canada's national particle research facility. In 1976, he earned a Combined Honours Bachelor of Science degree from UBC in physics and mathematics, and in 1980 received a Master of Sciences from UBC in Applied Mathematics. Richard worked at UBC's Department of Mathematics from 1975 to 1979. In 1979, he started working at TRIUMF, and in 1982 became a programmer analyst. Richard attended the United States Particle Accelerator School at Berkeley in 1989 and once again in 1990 at Harvard University.

As someone for disclosure who worked on his campaign in 2005, he usually outperformed predictions.  BC Liberals own internal polls in 2005 predicted he would lose by five points, but he narrowly squeaked off a win.  The big reason is he has really strong ties with the Chinese community and turnout tends to be low in that group but he is very good at getting them out to the polls.  Only risk is if a lot of the Chinese community goes Conservative as they have of recent been trending towards the Conservatives federally, but they almost never go NDP, at least not the immigrant ones (NDP provincially did make strong gains amongst this group, but I think that was more from their children who were born in Canada and likely vote the same way millennials do in general).

As for being a BC Liberal, that is a mixed bag.  It might hurt amongst some progressives as a significant chunk of the federal Liberal vote in BC loathes the provincial Liberals, but at the same time might help amongst some on the fence.  A lot of fiscally conservative types are disappointed with Trudeau and may be tempted to go Tory so having someone from the BC Liberals re-assures that group the Liberals are still fiscally responsible, not tax and spend types.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: 136or142 on January 19, 2019, 07:47:45 pm


A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: MaxQue on January 20, 2019, 11:27:56 am


A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.

A significant of provincial North is in federal South. In fact the borders are simple federally. Burbaby South is all of Burnaby south of the Lougheed Highway.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: 136or142 on January 20, 2019, 10:00:21 pm


A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.

A significant of provincial North is in federal South. In fact the borders are simple federally. Burbaby South is all of Burnaby south of the Lougheed Highway.

Thanks for the information!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: lilTommy on January 21, 2019, 07:24:44 am


A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.

A significant of provincial North is in federal South. In fact the borders are simple federally. Burbaby South is all of Burnaby south of the Lougheed Highway.

To be more specific, looks like less then half of Burnaby North (Prov.) is in the Fed. Burnaby South; in the 2017 Provincial election the BCLiberals won about 6 polls of the 19 or 20 I counted that are in Burnaby South (NDP won the rest). Even in the 2013 Prov election the BCLIberals (with Lee) won 14 of the 26 polls (more polls in 2013). Unfortunately for Lee, the bulk of strong BCLiberal support was north of Lougheed HWY. Could probably be easy enough for someone who knows, to transpose the results.

I think Lee is a much stronger candidate for namesake and experience, but that will be both a positive and negative. As mentioned the BCLiberals are not Progressive, in particular fiscally so, they are more conservative in most aspects then the LPC. I agree the LPC will likely lose some of the more progressive soft Liberal vote to the NDP, but I think the selection of Lee will retain or attract moderate fiscally conservative Liberals and moderate Conservatives. This whole mess does not look good on the LPC, but there is still a month to go, so will fade and become a Lee-Singh battle.
   


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: UWS on January 24, 2019, 06:19:11 pm
Here's why Jagmeet Singh will lose the by-election in Burnaby South : he opposes the Trudeau Government's decision to support democratic transition in Venezuela that suffered oppression, inflation and terror for such a long time.

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201901/24/01-5212289-venezuela-le-npd-rejette-la-position-du-gouvernement-trudeau.php


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: DL on January 24, 2019, 07:10:01 pm
Number of voters in Burnaby South who can even find Venezuela on a map = 0


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: the506 on January 24, 2019, 09:04:58 pm
There was a provincial by-election in Topsail-Paradise NL tonight, the riding of former PC leader Paul Davis. Easy PC hold.

Paul Dinn (PC) - 2204 (61.2%, +2.9 from 2015)
Patricia Hynes-Coates (LIB) - 1212 (33.6%, -3.2)
Kathleen Burt (NDP) - 187 (5.2%, +0.4)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: adma on January 25, 2019, 06:24:47 pm
Number of voters in Burnaby South who can even find Venezuela on a map = 0

Well, maybe not that extreme; but certainly, those who are heavily preoccupied with Venezuela as an electoral deal-breaker are minimal.  Especially when it comes to a byelection, as opposed to a general election--and especially in a riding where the "ethnic" centre of gravity is far, far more Asiatic than Hispano-American...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 28, 2019, 11:46:07 am
Nanaimo: (https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-liberals-leading-in-nanaimo-by-election/?fbclid=IwAR3CsJ9MmIseznCUwRxVyDzeJ3_9_ChokkqYvA3aHTMYFCXTQc0oO5IO_n8) Mainstreet has Grits leading Dippers 43/35.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on January 28, 2019, 01:52:43 pm
Nanaimo: (https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-liberals-leading-in-nanaimo-by-election/?fbclid=IwAR3CsJ9MmIseznCUwRxVyDzeJ3_9_ChokkqYvA3aHTMYFCXTQc0oO5IO_n8) Mainstreet has Grits leading Dippers 43/35.

While I am bit skeptical the BC Liberals will do this well, I certainly think a BC Liberal win is definitely within the realm of possibility despite normally being a safe NDP riding.  Generally by-elections have low turnouts and often those upset with the government in power are more motivated to show up.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Lord Halifax on January 28, 2019, 05:41:23 pm
This is getting a bit confusing for an outsider. So could you guys briefly sum up who you think will win Burnaby South and why?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 29, 2019, 11:31:28 am
A lot of ciriticism out there about Mainstreet's Nanaimo poll, and a lot of it has to do with weighting the under 35 cohort up 7 times; but I do have another theory about it, and it's based on sampling. I'm not sure how they got their sample, but we did a similar internal poll, and the initial sample wasn't geocoded properly to the riding, so we had to manually geocode it. It's possible they didn't take this step and that a large chunk of cases came from outside the riding.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: mileslunn on January 29, 2019, 12:58:27 pm
A lot of ciriticism out there about Mainstreet's Nanaimo poll, and a lot of it has to do with weighting the under 35 cohort up 7 times; but I do have another theory about it, and it's based on sampling. I'm not sure how they got their sample, but we did a similar internal poll, and the initial sample wasn't geocoded properly to the riding, so we had to manually geocode it. It's possible they didn't take this step and that a large chunk of cases came from outside the riding.

Isn't the part of Nanaimo not in the riding mostly in Nanaimo-North Cowichan which is even more solidly NDP?  I think Parksville-Qualicum only includes a very tiny portion of the city.  Now its possible their polls were too heavily from the northern half of the riding as I think the north side of the city is more favourable to the BC Liberals than the south side so that could definitely skew it.  Anyways I tend to trust their results for provincial and federal as they have a good track record, but for municipal and ridings view with skepticism.  After all last BC election, they showed BC Liberals winning Saanich North & the Islands, Cowichan Valley, and Surrey-Fleetwood and none of those were that close.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 30, 2019, 11:01:26 am
The sample was not just the city of Nanaimo. I didn't bother to look up what it was exactly, though.

We had a similar issue in the provincial election. Our internal riding polls were much more accurate than the publicly released ones from other firms.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: adma on January 30, 2019, 07:04:59 pm
Can we transfer discussion here?
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=312465.0


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
Post by: Austere Religious Scholar on January 31, 2019, 12:37:03 am
Can we transfer discussion here?
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=312465.0

Thread locked.