Talk Elections

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Great stuff Filuwaúrdjan!

I was just wondering, what happened between 1994 and 1996 that caused most of Segni Pact's wins to go for Berlusconi in this election despite Segni joining Prodi's coalition?

  That election had so many seats won by the left because of a divided right in the Milan region and the tricoulour flame neo-fascists running in the Naples region.  Would have been interesting had there been a runoff provision.

what makes the core of Milan so conservative? I know Berlusconi was a big man there, but it's gotta be more than that right? What's the class/income/education profile?

I think all the winners of Pact for Italy direct mandates in 1994 were PPI, not Segni.

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I remember Italy 1996 well.   I was actually on a fairly long vacation with my family to Northern Italy in late 1994 when the Berlusconi government fell due to LN pulled its support.  The tour guide was clearly a PRC supporter and I spent a lot time talking to him about the political situation. 

I was certain that Berlusconi will be re-elected in 1996 based on the fact that, yes LN pulled out of the Berlusconi alliance but PRC also pulled out of the PDS led front so the FPTP seats should it should really be a wash.  Then it turned out that Berlusconi lost and due to the fact that the PRC had some sort of tactical alliance with the PDS led bloc.  That seems to have made the difference. 

Rather affluent. The historic tendency in Milan was for industry to develop around what was then the edge of the metropolis - Sesto San Giovanni is a particularly well known example, but some areas within the municipality as well - with the centre being more bourgeois, with banking and finance being important. Every large Italian city has a totally different character.

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The alliance of Milan and Palermo...

Don't underestimate Berlusconi and realignment: Milan was close to the national average support for the Communists and Socialists during the Cold War party system.

Surely by the end it makes more sense to view PSI support in Milan as a precursor to Forza Italia? :P ;D

But, yes, the Personal Appeal of Berlusconi can't be ignored in the area. Though it was really only in the elections during the early years of Berlusconi that Milan stood out - by 2006 and 2008 even it was only a few points better for the Berlusconi coalitions than average.

Exactly what I was thinking! I can't work out any alternative.

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Sorry to hijack this great thread, but I meant to come back with a response to this...


Just to illustrate that this core-periphery split was quite common, if not pervasive, here's the support for left-wing forces in north-central Italy in 1948, namely the PCI-PSI pact, the PSI dissidents around Giuseppe Saragat, and the peasants' party, who only ran in the fringes of the region depicted, and performed poorly even there. The left forces often did a lot better in peripheral towns and even rural areas of the red belt, whereas the cities were home to at least a modicum of DC support.

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