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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on January 29, 2018, 11:44:54 AM



Title: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on January 29, 2018, 11:44:54 AM
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/cyprus-election-presidential-race-heads-runoff-180128143143752.html

who will win and by how much?


Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: Lord Halifax on January 29, 2018, 02:24:26 PM
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/cyprus-election-presidential-race-heads-runoff-180128143143752.html

who will win and by how much?

Anastasiades will win by a very clear margin. It was a bad first round for the left. Maybe 58-42 or so if I had to guess. Its not a competitive election.



Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: petr sokol on January 29, 2018, 03:58:56 PM
Why do you mean so? Do DIKO voters prefer in 100 % DISY before AKEL?


Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: BundouYMB on January 29, 2018, 04:05:08 PM
Why do you mean so? Do DIKO voters prefer in 100 % DISY before AKEL?

No, they don't. Idk what he's talking about, the runoff will be very competitive. In 2013 Anastasiades led 45-27 in round 1, and then won the runoff 57-43. Now he leads 35-30. The runoff will be very close.


Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: petr sokol on January 29, 2018, 04:05:42 PM
Anastasiades is in first round 10 down compare to the 2013 elections when he won with 57 % in the second round....


Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: thumb21 on January 29, 2018, 04:25:38 PM
52-48 for Anastasiadis.


Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: Lord Halifax on January 29, 2018, 05:59:12 PM
Why do you mean so? Do DIKO voters prefer in 100 % DISY before AKEL?

Most people aren't voting for parties, but for persons. Papadopoulos is on the right wing of DIKO and has a very neo-liberal profile. His voters are very unlikely to go left.

In 2013 Malas and Giorgos Lillikas got 26.9 and 24.9% respectively, so the left/centre-left got a majority, which Malas then failed to consolidate behind him in the run-off.

This time Lillikas wasn't taken seriously and only got 2.18% (well below the 5.65% to far right ELAM) and the combined left/centre-left ended up with less than a third of the vote. Its a much more favorable situation for Anastasiades.


Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: thumb21 on February 03, 2018, 05:11:03 PM
I mapped the first round.

()

Here's a breakdown:

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Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: Mike88 on February 04, 2018, 11:18:17 AM
2nd round exit polls:

CYMAR Exit poll

54.5-59.5% Anastasiades
40.5-45.5% Malas

MARC Exit poll

53-57% Anastasiades
43-47% Malas


Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: Mike88 on February 04, 2018, 11:45:21 AM
53.6% counted:

56.9% Anastasiades
43.1% Malas

73.7% Turnout


Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: Mike88 on February 04, 2018, 12:25:14 PM
100% counted:

56.0% Anastasiades
44.0% Malas

74.0% Turnout

Anastasiades wins all 5 districts, plus the votes from abroad.


Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: Lord Halifax on February 04, 2018, 12:27:36 PM
100% counted:

56.0% Anastasiades
44.0% Malas

74.0% Turnout

Anastasiades wins all 5 districts, plus the votes from abroad.

Fairly close to my 58-42 prognosis.


Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 04, 2018, 01:16:05 PM
No surprise here. Anastasiadis cleaned up the mess left by Christofias quickly and efficiently.
If only we were lucky enough to have someone like him at the helm instead of a bunch of opportunistic clowns.


Title: Re: Cyprus presidential runoff between Anastasiades and Malas
Post by: Mike88 on February 04, 2018, 02:11:16 PM
No surprise here. Anastasiadis cleaned up the mess left by Christofias quickly and efficiently.
If only we were lucky enough to have someone like him at the helm instead of a bunch of opportunistic clowns.
According to polls, he will be kicked out next year.