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Title: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: LimoLiberal on January 29, 2018, 05:10:14 PM http://tennesseestar.com/2018/01/29/poll-blackburn-leads-bredesen-by-11-in-tennessee-u-s-senate-general-election-matchup-50-to-39/
Matchups Blackburn (R) - 51 Bredesen (D) - 40 Fincher (R) - 38 Bredesen (D) - 41 The blue wave narrative is in free fall. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Doimper on January 29, 2018, 05:11:17 PM Numbers minus commentary:
Quote http://tennesseestar.com/2018/01/29/poll-blackburn-leads-bredesen-by-11-in-tennessee-u-s-senate-general-election-matchup-50-to-39/ (http://tennesseestar.com/2018/01/29/poll-blackburn-leads-bredesen-by-11-in-tennessee-u-s-senate-general-election-matchup-50-to-39/) Matchups Blackburn (R) - 51 Bredesen (D) - 40 Fincher (R) - 38 Bredesen (D) - 41 Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: junior chįmp on January 29, 2018, 05:28:42 PM Blackburn only at 50%!?
Finished. Absolutely finished Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Doimper on January 29, 2018, 05:34:50 PM Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)
Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: KingSweden on January 29, 2018, 05:44:10 PM Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before) She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no? Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: I’m not Stu on January 29, 2018, 05:44:18 PM Tennessee is unlikely to be won by a Democrat, even in a blue wave. South Carolina, Louisiana, Alaska, Indiana, Montana, Texas, and Kansas are far more winnable than Tennessee.
Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Doimper on January 29, 2018, 05:45:56 PM Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before) She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no? Yeah, but he's been elected governor twice, which you'd think would place him in a league above some media-savvy representative. Apparently not. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Jeppe on January 29, 2018, 05:46:39 PM Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before) She is a longtime congressman who represents areas that are in both the Memphis and Nashville media markets, so I imagine local news must cover her quite often in both parts of the state. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Lachi on January 29, 2018, 05:56:36 PM Yes, the blue wave is gone because Blackburn is leading by double digits in a normally republican state...
Please stop the concern trolling... Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗 on January 29, 2018, 05:59:56 PM Blackburn will probably win, but I think Bredesen will keep it within single digits.
Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on January 29, 2018, 06:03:47 PM Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before) She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no? Yeah, but he's been elected governor twice, which you'd think would place him in a league above some media-savvy representative. Apparently not. In the article, it says that Bredesen has higher name recognition than Blackburn: Quote “With Bredesen having served as a two term governor, he has a strong residual of name recognition across the state that currently gives him a slight advantage over Blackburn who is less well known outside of Middle Tennessee,” Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: King Lear on January 29, 2018, 06:09:04 PM These numbers seem really accurate, Bresden will lose to Blackburn (hence why I rate this race Safe Republican), However he well probably come closer then any Democrat since 2006 to actually making the race moderately competitive.
Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: IceSpear on January 29, 2018, 06:20:28 PM Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave.
But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Doimper on January 29, 2018, 06:29:27 PM Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before) She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no? Yeah, but he's been elected governor twice, which you'd think would place him in a league above some media-savvy representative. Apparently not. In the article, it says that Bredesen has higher name recognition than Blackburn: Quote “With Bredesen having served as a two term governor, he has a strong residual of name recognition across the state that currently gives him a slight advantage over Blackburn who is less well known outside of Middle Tennessee,” lol, whoops, I missed that. She did have a name rec advantage in the poll we got before this one. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on January 29, 2018, 07:15:24 PM Confirms a close race in Tennessee which is disastrous for the GOP.
Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on January 29, 2018, 07:21:06 PM The point has always been that Bredesen will make the NRSC spend money in TN, not that he'd win.
Eyes on the prize, folks. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: UncleSam on January 29, 2018, 07:51:46 PM Never understood why people here thought this or Texas were remotely likely pick ups
Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: I’m not Stu on January 29, 2018, 08:06:37 PM Never understood why people here thought this or Texas were remotely likely pick ups Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on January 29, 2018, 08:08:02 PM Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave. But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on January 29, 2018, 08:10:12 PM Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black.
And why is the sample 46% republican? Surely there are less Republicans in TN than that (although I bet indies here are pretty titanium R anyways). Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: UWS on January 29, 2018, 08:39:52 PM Tennessee is unlikely to be won by a Democrat, even in a blue wave. South Carolina, Louisiana, Alaska, Indiana, Montana, Texas, and Kansas are far more winnable than Tennessee. I guess not even Al Gore would have won Tennessee today. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on January 29, 2018, 08:55:38 PM Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave. But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: TomC on January 29, 2018, 09:34:36 PM Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black. I'd say 12%-14% is likely. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: TomC on January 29, 2018, 09:38:11 PM Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave. But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile. No serious Democrat has run since 2006 so 20-50% is the floor. Bredesen is far from a nobody and Blackburn is not the moderate patrician TN GOP is used to electing. Bredesen will be within 9.69% :) Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Xing on January 30, 2018, 01:20:38 AM A D swing of only 15% from 2016? Clearly 2018 will be a disaster for Democrats.
Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Pericles on January 30, 2018, 02:31:06 AM Clinton lost Tennessee by 26%. Now the Democrats are losing it by only 11%. That's a 15% swing to the Democrats, right in line with all the other evidence we've seen and demonstrating the blue wave is coming and it will be YUGE. If anything given that there's a 15% swing to the Dems we may be underestimating just how big the wave really is.
Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: NewYorkExpress on January 30, 2018, 02:41:15 AM Never understood why people here thought this or Texas were remotely likely pick ups Unless the Republican brand improves nationally, or Cruz starts becoming more popular with his colleagues in the Senate (which would help him bring money home), Texas will be at worst for Democrats a Tossup. Tennessee on the other hand, won't even be close. Both Blackburn and Fincher should win by at least 15. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself on January 30, 2018, 10:44:07 AM What's with polls heavily underestimating black share of the electorate?
Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: Pollster on January 30, 2018, 12:06:16 PM Quote Only 5 percent respondents in the poll were African-American, which is lower than historic turnouts among African-Americans in Tennessee general elections where African-American voters comprise between 10 percent and 12 percent of all votes cast. If the poll results were weighted to reflect a general election voting population that is 11 percent, Blackburn’s margin over Bredesen drops to 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided. As expected, the race is moderately competitive with a GOP advantage. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: McGovernForPrez on January 30, 2018, 04:46:14 PM Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black. And why is the sample 46% republican? Surely there are less Republicans in TN than that (although I bet indies here are pretty titanium R anyways). Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: TomC on January 30, 2018, 07:23:03 PM Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black. And why is the sample 46% republican? Surely there are less Republicans in TN than that (although I bet indies here are pretty titanium R anyways). We do not register by party in Tennessee. Title: Re: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11 Post by: IceSpear on January 31, 2018, 06:37:42 PM Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave. But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile. Yeah, here's a few of those 10,000 things that could lead to Blackburn losing: Her being a pedophile, her being a murderer, etc. But if we're going to start considering 0.01% probabilities, then hardly any race is truly safe. |