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Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: TheRocketRaccoon on March 21, 2018, 12:34:05 am



Title: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on March 21, 2018, 12:34:05 am
https://amp.tennessean.com/amp/443326002

Bredesen 46
Blackburn 41

Generic D 41
Generic R 51

Trump approval 54/42


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Xing on March 21, 2018, 12:38:43 am
()

But 46% might be about what Bredesen gets.


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Mondale on March 21, 2018, 12:40:27 am
I believe


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Fubart Solman 🥀 on March 21, 2018, 01:27:52 am
I believe in Harvey Dent the Blue Wave. 🌊


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Free Bird on March 21, 2018, 02:52:44 am
Push poll by pro-ACA group

Fake news


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on March 21, 2018, 03:16:26 am
Push poll by pro-ACA group

Fake news

How can you tell this with no polling script?


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Lean Branson on March 21, 2018, 03:32:34 am


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: MT Treasurer on March 21, 2018, 05:50:00 am
Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: libertpaulian on March 21, 2018, 06:35:06 am
Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.
I agree, but I think Bayh is a poor comparison.  Bayh had a reputation as a Midwestern Blue Dog due to his tenure as Indiana Governor but had grown more liberal in the Senate over time.  Bredesen still has the advantage of keeping his Southern Blue Dog rep intact.


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Skye on March 21, 2018, 06:52:58 am
Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.

Their profiles are similar, but I think it depends on the quality of his campaign. Bayh's campaign was a disaster the minute it started and didn't get any better.


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on March 21, 2018, 07:03:10 am
Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.
^^^^


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Speaker OneJ on March 21, 2018, 07:20:12 am
I don't see crosstabs, but at the very bottom of the page that the OP posted, 83 percent of respondents were white while 14 percent were black. Maybe blacks are slightly overrepresented or something else?


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Brittain33 on March 21, 2018, 07:52:05 am
I seriously think Blackburnís gender is hurting, potentially fatally. This is helpful for Dems but ultimately terrible for democracy.


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: DTC on March 21, 2018, 07:58:09 am
Push poll by pro-ACA group

Fake news

Trump's approval is 54-42 according to this poll.

It was only 50-44 in TN according to gallup, and I've seen a lot of polls where Trump is basically even in TN.

I don't think this is a push poll if Trump's approval is a lot higher than in other polls, lol.



Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Jeppe on March 21, 2018, 08:58:45 am
I seriously think Blackburnís gender is hurting, potentially fatally. This is helpful for Dems but ultimately terrible for democracy.

Democrat women have been doing pretty well in primaries, but Republican women havenít had the same luck. I donít think gender is hurting Blackburn, Deb Fischer easily won a race very similar to this one in 2012, in an even less red state.


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Pollster on March 21, 2018, 02:49:44 pm
Important to note that Blackburn is barely within the MOE here. This is an incredibly tight race.


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: President Johnson on March 21, 2018, 02:53:57 pm
Freedom poll. Nevertheless, this is toss-up at very best, more likely "lean Republican".


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: RINO Tom on March 21, 2018, 02:57:42 pm
Tennessee being competitive is a mainstay of any GOP doomsday scenario, LOL.  The fact that it's remotely close is embarrassing.


Title: Re: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
Post by: Brittain33 on March 21, 2018, 04:13:57 pm
I seriously think Blackburnís gender is hurting, potentially fatally. This is helpful for Dems but ultimately terrible for democracy.

Democrat women have been doing pretty well in primaries, but Republican women havenít had the same luck. I donít think gender is hurting Blackburn, Deb Fischer easily won a race very similar to this one in 2012, in an even less red state.

My thesis is that itís regional to the southeast, where few women have emerged as conservative leaders (although we can all name those few) and where male conservative politicians are more likely to treat women as followers and second-class elected officials than equals. Bredesen has rare credibility as a Democrat to capitalize on this because of his track record.