Talk Elections

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Battleground-Health-Care-Memo.pdf

Sinema 46
McSally 41

Generic D Candidate 45
Generic R Candidate 47

Trump approval 45/50

Woohoo! Tilt D

McSally is a poor candidate, this is Lean D, but closer to Likely than Tossup.

Yep, plus last week revealed her severe case of foot-in-the-mouth syndrome.

I could see McSally being the Bruce Braley of this cycle. She really is overrated.

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

Tbf O'Halleran's seat is ancestrally a blue dog Democrat seat. But given that most pollsters do not poll in Spanish, it would not surprise me if Sinema outperformed.

We have been saying this all along.

McSally could have chosen to go down as a Rick Saccone type boring candidate

But she chose to go hard right...she increasingly is looking just like Kelli Ward, And if Ward couldn't win a general election as a nutjob neither can McSally

Hmmmm, it is worrying though that Generic Rep is leading Generic Dem by 2.

I think a Generic Dem is imagined to be more liberal than Sinema actually is and a generic Rep more moderate than McSally is playing it right now.

Not really, Arizona has been a red state for decades.

^^

It's March 2018


Anything can happen. AZ-SEN is Tossup.

"Blue dog" is a really bad descriptor for that seat. It contains a lot of unusual demographic groups (Native Americans, including multiple rival tribal groups, small resort-town liberals in Sedona and Flagstaff, super-religious Mormons in Snowflake/Taylor/Holbrook etc. (not actual FLDS, who are outside the district, but more conservative than your average Utah Mormon)), which don't necessarily follow national trendlines, but that doesn't make it "blue dog".

Babeu I am certain underperformed because he is gay, especially in ultra-Mormon country. Navajo County, which is the center of the Mormon population in the district, voted for O'Halleran despite voting for Trump by 11% and had by far the biggest difference between Presidential and Congressional votes.

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Babeu was going to loose but he ended up loosing by a large margin because of all his scandals, not because he is gay. Though, one of his scandals includes threatening to deport his immigrant lover if he outed him as gay.

O'Halleran is a good independent minded(former GOP state rep) which helped his case.

I also believe mormons in the white mountain region are more likely to vote for democrats than mormons in Provo or Mesa. The White mountain region itself does have many rural whites that are more wiling to vote for Democrats than rural whites in other regions - think of it as Montana in a way, still leans conservative but willing to vote D down ballot.
to go further on the last point, while Clinton lost Navajo county by 10 points,  Kirkpatrick only lost by 2.8 and it was one of her best performing counties(she did so much better in this region than Clinton despite underperforming Clinton in Maricopa), and O'Halleran won Navajo.
Meanwhile in western Arizona counties like Yavapai and Mojave, rural whites aren't willing to vote Dem down ballot.

What would you describe it then? It's an R+2 district with unique groups that tends to elect moderate to conservative Democrats to Congress.

Great poll. I assume Arpaio and  Ward would even be weaker candidates. Too bad they wern't polled.

Sinema will easily be the most attractive Senator in the country.

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tbf, he ran against ing babeu...

When will the PPP polls be added to the database?

Martin Heinrich?

Eh, Gillibrand and Heinrich?

Creep

I'm heterosexual and even I can't deny Martin Heinrich's handsomeness.

These numbers are inflated, but Flake could lose like Heller in a tight contest.

Flake retired.

He's not a senator but young Henry Cueller makes me wet

It's 3 weeks later now, but I'm commenting to confirm that I am in fact a creep. thanks for pointing it out.

McSally probably even not going to be the Republican nominee.

That's not a good thing.