Talk Elections

Since old one exceeded it's limit last night...

Elections Calendar: https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2018
Old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264656.0

Results Pages for tonight:

Massachusetts House of Representatives Second Bristol District (8 ET): Search social media.

Rhode Island State Senate District 8 (8 ET): Search social media.

WI Supreme Court (9 ET): https://www.wisconsinvote.org/election-results

CA (11 ET): https://www.scpr.org/news/2018/04/02/81945/for-voters-special-elections-a-chance-for-change-f/ (scroll down)

Republicans are probably going to pick up the Massachusetts seat. They have a strong candidate (veteran and Attleboro councilwoman).

Yeah it seems like the Second Bristol seat is probably going to be fairly competitive. I'd say it probably is a pure toss up.

I got it as a toss up too. Attleboro is a bit Trumpy (post industrial town) without all the #resistance white liberals like you’d find north and west of Boston



Apparently they’re also voting whether or not to build a new high school. Turnout may be higher

Polls have closed in MA and RI. Please post any results you find.

I can’t find any and the mass Secretary of State site kinda sucks. Idk if they even post it

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/981320215525982208

Cano (D) winning in Rhode Island 73-27.

Source on that?

Crap I linked the wrong tweet. Here you go -->

https://twitter.com/DonnaNesselbush/status/981322439769706496

Could you at least say where these numbers are coming from.

If it's true then Republicans definitely put up a fight. A Clinton presidency would've flipped the seat.

An adequate performance in Bristol. Hawkins actually got a larger share of the vote than Clinton, but her large win here was mostly due to Trump's exceedingly poor fit for Massachusetts.

There may be something here later: http://www.ktuu.com/elections/
Remember polls are open there until 1 AM ET.

Damn so close. Maybe we can get it with Charlie heading the ticket

What was the swing?

None, the incumbent Democrat was unopposed in 2016.

15 points i believe, still embarassing cuz dems rans some guy

We have winners in both WI races:

Supreme Court - General
54.1% Precincts Reporting 22:25 PM ET
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
NP   
Dallet, Rebecca   
387,812   
56.09 %   
NP   
Screnock, Michael   
303,624   
43.91 %   
iIncumbentRunoffWinner
COUNTY RESULTS
WISCONSIN

Amendment - Eliminate State Treasurer - General
53.8% Precincts Reporting 22:25 PM ET
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
No   
No,    
401,599   
61.28 %   
Yes   
Yes,   the
253,764   
38.72 %   


Polls close in CA in a half hour.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 39
10.06% of precincts reporting
Luz Maria Rivas (D)
40.61%
Patrea Patrick (D)
2.55%
Ricardo Antonio Benitez (R)
25.87%
Yolie Anguiano (D)
5.36%
Antonio Sanchez (D)
16.48%
Patty Lopez (D)
9.14%

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 54
1.65% of precincts reporting
Glen Ratcliff (R)
15.76%
Grayson A. Pangilnan (D)
3.93%
Tepring Michelle Piquado (D)
15.49%
Sydney K. Kamlager (D)
64.82%

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 45
0.49% of precincts reporting
Justin M. Clark (R)
30.37%
Tricia Robbins Kasson (D)
15.42%
Jesse Gabriel (D)
31.06%
Ankur Patel (D)
6.73%
Daniel Brin (D)
1.84%
Jeff Bornstein (D)
2.36%
Raymond J. Bishop (D)
2.71%
Dennis Zine
9.51%

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DEM WINS DISTRICT 54 OUTRIGHT

Member of the State Assembly, 54th District (Unexpired Term Ending December 3, 2018)
D
Sydney K. Kamlager   65.05%   
10,399
R
Glen Ratcliff   15.57%   
2,489
D
Tepring Michelle Piquado   15.45%   
2,469
D
Grayson A. Pangilinan   3.93%   
628
16 of 242 precincts reporting (6.61%)

Member of the State Assembly, 39th District (Unexpired Term Ending December 3, 2018)
D
Luz Maria Rivas   40.96%   
3,602
R
Ricardo Antonio Benitez   25.26%   
2,221
D
Antonio Sanchez   16.66%   
1,465
D
Patty Lopez   9.17%   
806
D
Yolie Anguiano   5.47%   
481
D
Patrea Patrick   2.49%   
219
26 of 169 precincts reporting (15.38%)Voter Nominated

WULFRIC PROJECTION: CA-45 will be D v. R Runoff

Member of the State Assembly, 45th District (Unexpired Term Ending December 3, 2018)
D
Jesse Gabriel   31.22%   
5,168
R
Justin M. Clark   30.06%   
4,976
D
Tricia Robbins Kasson   15.40%   
2,550
N
Dennis P. Zine   9.36%   
1,549
D
Ankur Patel   7.11%   
1,177
D
Raymond J. Bishop   2.70%   
447
D
Jeff Bornstein   2.36%   
391
D
Daniel Brin   1.80%   
298
11 of 204 precincts reporting (5.39%)Voter Nominated

Member of the State Assembly, 39th District (Unexpired Term Ending December 3, 2018)
D
Luz Maria Rivas   41.07%   
3,790
R
Ricardo Antonio Benitez   25.08%   
2,314
D
Antonio Sanchez   16.97%   
1,566
D
Patty Lopez   8.99%   
830
D
Yolie Anguiano   5.43%   
501
D
Patrea Patrick   2.46%   
227
37 of 169 precincts reporting (21.89%)Voter Nominated

WULFRIC PROJECTION: CA-39 will be D v. R RUNOFF:

Member of the State Assembly, 39th District (Unexpired Term Ending December 3, 2018)
D
Luz Maria Rivas   41.42%   5,454
R
Ricardo Antonio Benitez   22.69%   2,988
D
Antonio Sanchez   18.41%   2,425
D
Patty Lopez   9.99%   1,316
D
Yolie Anguiano   4.93%   649
D
Patrea Patrick   2.56%   337
137 of 169 precincts reporting (81.07%)Voter Nominated

That's all for tonight. Two more special elections on the 10th - Iowa Senate 25 and Florida Senate 31.

As long as he does better than in his 2010 gubernatorial run... :P

Republicans are DOA in the next California runoffs.

Yes, but honestly even making it into the runoffs is an accomplishment for the party in its current state.

I guess, but each race had one Republican and 5+ Democrats. /shrug

Are there any interesting special elections tonight?

There is a safe dem seat in florida, and a potentially competitive one in Iowa.

The dem candidate is a state rep and the R candidate is just the head of the local party committee, so I expect it to be a landslide.

I just saw on Twitter that the only reason Rs ran a candidate was to prevent Berman from being sworn in early as "uncontested" and participating in government.

Results for tonight:

Florida Senate 31 (7 ET): http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/ElectionResults/default?Election=04/10/2018

Iowa Senate 25 (10 ET)

Hardin County: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTw24eE8uc3hEvsn3lBUeEPrNFsm0FANpr-1vx9D2T4AHcqO1TAghh3u0sICqpQU0rnrqoPJrfOaKGN/pubhtml

Story County: http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/index.aspx?NID=1287

Butler County: https://www.butlercoiowa.org/departments/elections/results

Grundy County: Not finding a page for this county. Any help is appreciated.

Add up the results from all counties to get the full result.

Grundy County: https://www.grundycounty.org/departments/auditor/election-results

Tami L. Donnally   
REP   4,570   
25.5%
Lori Berman   
DEM   13,354   
74.5%

Early and absentee reported. No election day vote.

Florida or Iowa?

Florida. 61-36 Clinton seat, so the democrat is putting up a 24 point margin swing so far.

43% in:


Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Tami L. Donnally   
REP   5,764   
25.69%
Lori Berman   
DEM   16,670   
74.31%
Total    22,434

The district went 25% for Clinton. This is a 23% swing to the Democrats.

This is indeed a bad sign for Rick Scott.

9% turn out in a safe dem seat. Doesn’t mean anything

As has been stated hundreds of times before, averaging them together as a group is actually decently predictive of future general election results. The more special elections, the more accurate.

That being said, this swing isn't abnormal by any means. It is in line with other special election results. And it's not historically normal either. When Obama was president, Democrats consistently under-performed in special elections and got blown out in each midterm.

Tami L. Donnally   
REP   7,614   
25.18%
Lori Berman   
DEM   22,621   
74.82%

99% in

25-point shift to the Democrats

Iowa closes at 10:00 Est if this follows the same rules as usual for the state.

The Iowa Senate District went 26 points to Trump, and 9 points to Romney. This race will test how powerful the Dem swing is.

Have a feeling the Republican is going to win by 15+ in Iowa. The republican candidate has a great profile (former state rep) while the dem candidate is kind of meh.

Decent job in Fl, especially given the reason why this race even happened.

Sen. Grassley may live in this district.  If not, then very near.  It has 16,000 R 8,000 D and 15,000 I voters.

This race is happening because the Incumbent R and Sen Majority Leader was caught kissing a lobbyist who was not his wife.

I think GOP carries the Iowa race 54-46 tonight.

Which CD is this district in?

Partly the 1st, partly the 4th

Final:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Tami L. Donnally   
REP   7,696   
25.19%
Lori Berman   
DEM   22,860   
74.81%
Total    30,556

First one to post results gets 100 colombian pesos.

Yep. Republican leading 61-38 in Hardin county early vote. Going to be a disappointing night.

Absentees in Hardin Co 708--443 Sweeney

Annette Sweeney   (R) Tracy Freese (D)   Scattering
NORTH HARDIN            
SOUTH HARDIN            
ABSENTEE BALLOTS   1160   708   443   0
TOTAL VOTES CAST   1160   708   443   0

Yeah, it's over, projecting Sweeney as victor.

All of Hardin county in. Sweeney (R) won it 61.5 - 38.5. Clinton lost the two-party vote 65.5 - 34.5 in 2016 for the portion in SD-25.

RIP Freese.

Blue wave dead. The Roy Moore wave is in.

Story county is the big democratic stronghold here. Clinton only lost the SD-25 portion 53-39. Freese needs to run up the score there to keep it close.

UNOFFICIAL CANVASS OF VOTES CAST AT THE HARDIN COUNTY SPECIAL ELECTION
April 10, 2018
PRECINCT   # of Voters   STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 25 - TO FILL VACANCY
ELECT ONE
Annette Sweeney (R)   Tracy Freese (D)   Scattering
NORTH HARDIN   1082   636   443   1
SOUTH HARDIN   686   451   234   0
ABSENTEE BALLOTS   1160   708   443   0
TOTAL VOTES CAST   2928   1795   1120   1

https://twitter.com/cjandringa/status/983890800995110912

Freese leading in the absentees in Story County

Not gonna happen.

*IF* she can hold that percentage (58-42) she can make this a race. Story county casts the most votes in this district.

Sweeney will win.

Freese WINS Story county 56-44: http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8228

But, she only nets 300 votes.

Yeah, this looks done. That isn't enough of a margin for Freese to win the district. Should still be a significant shift from 2016.

Sweeney (R) leads Freese (D) 53-47 (2943-2560). Massive underperformance from 2016 if it holds. But two conservative counties still to come in should push that margin up.

http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8228

Freeze wins Story 1440-1148-4

Let's hope that Freese lives in Grundy and owns a small business in Butler...

She does live in Grundy but it's Dutch and votes 62-38

ANNETTE SWEENEY 141 95 158 97 161 199 191 226 1268 62.1%
TRACY FREESE 83 42 48 28 171 109 156 137 774 37.9%
Write-ins 0 0.0%
0 0.0%
TOTAL VOTES CAST 224 137 206 125 332 308 347 363 2042 100.0%


Sweeney wins big in Grundy. It's over.

Freese is screwed. Sweeney represented both Butler and Grundy counties in her state house seat. I think we'll see a final margin of 57-43 for the Republican.

mfw when expectations are so high you are almost underwhelmed when you lose a Romney/Trump midwest seat by double figures.

Totals so far:
 
Sweeney 4211 (56%)
Freese 3334 (44%)
Write-In 5 (0%)

Story county really, really, really had awful turnout night. Way underrepresented in the final totals.

Does this district include Ames? Even if the district has a safe R history it's sad to see a D candidate get flushed in a district with a major university in it.

Nah, 1 moderate liberal country is always less than 3 very conservative counties.

No, it doesn't.

No, it covers the South and East part of the county, but not Ames. 

Here's a link to a district map

http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/5071

The Story portion of the district voted for Trump by 14 and Romney by 2, so a 56-44 win there is a substantial improvement.
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/983896058009878529

Okay, Butler County, how bad is it? 60% R? 70% R? 80% R?

The SD-25 portion went 66-29 while the county as a whole went 66-29 for Trump. But Obama only lost here in 2012 54-44, so Freese conceivably could stem the bleeding if she matched his margin. Seems ancestrally more democratic.

A big chunk of Butler is in another district, I believe, so the vote is overwhelmingly in.  Looks like around a 12 point swing to the Dem from 2016-Pres.  I was hoping for a bit better, but when you factor in the strength of the Republican candidate, it's still a solid result and in line with what we've been seeing.

So we're looking at about a 14-point shift to the Democrats?

Democrats have been over-performing very consistently in special elections of all sorts, and a number of high-profile specials has moved the bar to the point where not winning seats that they wouldn't ordinarily be expected to win even in a wave* somehow becomes disappointing and used as "proof" by Republicans (or others who think Democrats will perform poorly in Nov) that their success is petering out. This has become a regular thing now both by Republicans in general and occasionally by some users here.

I'd love for my party to win them all, but I don't expect it.


* not sure how well downballot Democrats have performed in this seat over the past 10 years

All of Butler county in: Freese loses it 57.5 - 42.5 with the Republican netting about 140 votes.

https://www.butlercoiowa.org/images/SPECIAL_ELECTION_RESULTS_WILL_BE_POSTED_AS_SOON_AS_THEY_BECOME_AVAILABLE.pdf

Final Totals:

Sweeney (R) 4742 (56%)
Freese (D) 3726 (44%)
Write-In 5 (0%)

A disappointment, but it could be far worse.

That wraps up tonight. The next elections are on the 24th.

The GOP is going to win the Iowa seat. Great night.

This is fun:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/983910196983599104

Decent swing in tough territory

()

We all called this an hour ago, and you are just calling it now.

A 14-point shift isn't bad at all

Obama lost this district by 5 against McCain, while winning the state overall by 9 points. Its a very Republican district.

And Obama's 2008 performance in Iowa is pretty much the high watermark for Dems.

Low bar much?

Iowa voted for Dukakis 1988, and Clinton 1996 by double digits.

The era of the farm bill is long past us, we got several new political generations in the state now.

But the era of the farm tariffs is upon us. Thanks, China.

I'd love for this to happen, but if Iowa still voted for Trump by 9.5% after he ran a very anti-TPP campaign when farmers were one of the few specific occupational demographics which TPP was supposed to unequivocally benefit.

I think it might matter more if the people see a direct cause and effect that leads to financial problems (for themselves or people they know). Keep in mind that, as said before, Trump may have had a big winning margin but actual support wasn't that impressive. It was smaller than Obama 2012, which makes it seem more anti-Clinton than pro-Trump. With that in mind, it's not hard to see Iowa voting out a bunch of Republicans (possibly including Trump in 2020) with or without a burdensome trade war.

I think you're right in a number of ways (Anti-Clinton vs. Pro-Trump, real effects vs. easily ignorable hypotheticals) and there are a few other things you did not mention that may explain this phenomenon (Clinton also campaigned against the TPP, Obama era water regulations). Still it was very shocking to me to see Iowa move so far to the right when one of the largest occupational demographics there had clear financial incentive not to vote for Trump -- and farmers are known as a trade where people are very well informed about broader macroeconomic trends in their trade. Past precedence says that Iowa is likely to swing back the other way in the next cycle, although the margins there were so large in 2014 and 2016 that I don't think we'll see it make it all the way back to a D majority in a statewide race any time soon.

As much as I'd love to see Trump lose Iowa I'd almost even prefer for Ernst to lose first. She's awful.

And how many special elections now have we told ourselves that? OH WAIT!! There was almost no D shift or even a small R one in a single GA house race!! And DON"T FORGET OSSOF!!! Clear evidence the other dozens and dozens of special and off year elections spread across the country showing near universal hard shifts to the Dems are all meaningless. Hooray!! :D

Dude, let's stop whistling past the graveyard. Trump is going to f$%k our party over in November. Horrendously.

Democratic New York assemblyman Frank Skartados passed away today. He represented district 104.

https://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/story/opinion/editorials/2018/04/15/skartados-death-deep-loss-community-editorial/515195002/ (https://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/story/opinion/editorials/2018/04/15/skartados-death-deep-loss-community-editorial/515195002/)

Rip, was a good FF.

No special elections today?

Yes but their are a number of special elections next week.

A boatload of them in New York.

I encourage anybody who is interested in past (or future) special elections to visit my stickied thread on the congressional board (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264093.0).

There, you'll find the margins for each district from the 2016 legislative race (or in a few cases, 2014/2015) and the 2016 presidential, along with the special election margin and swing. All data is available in the first two posts of the thread.

---

Related: it looks like we have quite a few potentially competitive special elections coming up over the next month:

Democratic Massachusetts house rep Jim Miceli for the 19th middlesex district passsed away today at a public event.

http://www.wcvb.com/article/state-rep-jim-miceli-dies-after-collapsing-at-massachusetts-event/19880530 (http://www.wcvb.com/article/state-rep-jim-miceli-dies-after-collapsing-at-massachusetts-event/19880530)

Interesting. By Massachussetts standards at least this is a "conservative" district, and Miceli was rather socially conservative (though - pro-labor) Democrat. Special (if it will be held), and general election here may be interesting.

Today, there will be 11 special elections in New York: 9 for the State Assembly and 2 for the State Senate. All polls close at 9 ET. All results will be here: https://nyenr.elections.ny.gov/ . By default, the page will load the State Senate races. To switch to the Assembly races, select that option in the contest dropdown and click Search. I'd like to thank the state of New York for being far better than many other states in providing results for special elections.

A reminder that there will also be a special election in AZ-8, which will be covered on the appropriate threads in the congressional board. If at all possible, I will have the NY races called before AZ-8 begins reporting results at 11 ET.

Eyes on AD 05, 10, 17, and 107.

Looking back on the 2017 AD-09 special in Suffolk we flipped, we didn't start getting results until 9:40.

Looking decent so far.

LOL

()

Looking VERY promising!

Dem outperforming by 6 in the 74th. Doesn't seem much, but he's at 92%.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/988949344261890048

That would be 56-44.

http://www.westchestergov.com/boe99/linkcounty.aspx

()

Could you link the page for this?

Asides from the DDHQ reports we don't have anything from the competitive seats. All thats in is from the Safe D inflexible city seats.

Link is right above the image.

Mayer's lead keeps expanding: now at more than 1500 votes

http://www.westchestergov.com/boe99/linkcounty.aspx

()

Now at approximately 1650 votes:

http://www.westchestergov.com/boe99/linkcounty.aspx

()

Gr...Upstate why you so slow.

Now at 1828:

()

Mayer up by 2024 votes now; if this doesn't start reversing very soon, I'm calling it:

()

Over one-third of precincts reporting and Mayer's lead continues to grow: now at 2262 votes. If this 13-16 point margin is still holding once 40% are reporting, it's a done deal.

()

BTW, since nobody has yet stated it we can call, AD-39, AD-72, AD-80, and SD-32 for the dems. All City seats that were never going to move thanks to heavy partisanship.

I think it' safe to say the Democrat is going to win SD-37

is this an over and underperformance?

Mayer now up by 2887 votes; almost in the bag:

()

Hard to see how Mayer is not winning this.

Clinton won by 22, so she's not hitting presidential numbers...the Democratic incumbent won it by 11 in 2016. An average of those two (which is how I'm calculating swing in my special elections thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264093.0)) would be around 17 points, which Mayer is at roughly at the moment.

Uh-oh. Stern (D) losing narrowly in early results from Suffolk County AD-10 where a flip was expected. It's an obama-clinton seat.

http://apps.suffolkcountyny.gov/boe/eleres/18s1/flashresults.html

The 142nd Assembly District result looks pretty bad.

()

Mayer up by 3343 votes now. This is over:

()

Yep. Republican leading 55-45 in Erie County AD-142 with 50% reporting. R Flip incoming here.

https://www.erieelectionresults.com/nys.aspx

Y'all didn't believe me when I made my writeup.

AD-142 was more like a democratic primary in the general election IIRC, tho

Only about 350 votes thus far. We don't have a clear indicator of what's happening yet.

It's been over.

"Republican" currently leading in LD-142, which would be a flip if it was a real Republican. But the "Republican" is actually a conservative Democrat who claimed the line (NY weirdness.) Loss for progressives though.

Well the candidate who's running on the Republican, Conservative, and Independent lines is winning.

Is this the district with one Dem on the GOP line and one on the Dem line?

Yes. Dem on the GOP line is pretty conservative but has a lot of union support. Dem on the Dem line is a progressive.

The R's lead is shrinking in the 142nd. Went from +10 to +6

Yeah but the one on the R line is a DINO who is handpicked by Paladino and plans to caucus with republicans

Margin is closing:

()

First round of Wulfric Projections incoming:


39th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 43,860)   Election Districts Reporting: 48 of 56
Ari Espinal   DEM   .   73.82 %   502   .   89.85 %   611
WOR   .   13.53 %   92           
WEP   .   2.50 %   17           
Blank         0.59 %   4      0.59 %   4
Void      .   1.03 %   7   .   1.03 %   7
Write-in      .   8.53 %   58   .   8.53 %   58
Total Votes   680

74th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 76,195)   Election Districts Reporting: 87 of 107
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Harvey Epstein   DEM   .   77.27 %   2,451   .   90.20 %   2,861
WOR   .   12.93 %   410           
Bryan Cooper   REP   .   5.04 %   160   .   5.04 %   160
Adrienne R. Craig-Williams   GRE   .   2.21 %   70   .   2.21 %   70
Juan Pagan   REF   .   1.92 %   61   .   1.92 %   61
Blank         0.03 %   1      0.03 %   1
Void         0.28 %   9      0.28 %   9
Write-in         0.32 %   10      0.32 %   10
Total Votes   3,172


80th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 58,363)   Election Districts Reporting: 85 of 95
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Nathalia Fernandez   DEM   .   78.04 %   1,432   .   80.60 %   1,479
IND   .   2.56 %   47           
Gene Defrancis   REP   .   13.08 %   240   .   18.47 %   339
CON   .   4.31 %   79           
REF   .   1.09 %   20           
Blank         0.33 %   6      0.33 %   6
Void         0.11 %   2      0.11 %   2
Write-in         0.49 %   9      0.49 %   9
Total Votes   1,835

 32nd Senate District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 164,917)   Election Districts Reporting: 153 of 219
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Luis Sepulveda   DEM   .   89.21 %   1,736   .   89.21 %   1,736
Patrick Delices   REP   .   2.47 %   48   .   2.47 %   48
Pamela Stewart-Martinez   REF   .   6.17 %   120   .   6.17 %   120
Blank         0.15 %   3      0.15 %   3
Void      .   1.28 %   25   .   1.28 %   25
Write-in         0.72 %   14      0.72 %   14
Total Votes   1,946

Anti-Cuomo effect out in full force. Rightward swings from 2016 in 2/4 races that have a significant chunk of the vote in. And you people laughed at me.

We still are. You're making assumptions with only 2% of the vote in.

STERN LEADING BY 11 in 10!!

Major dump in AD-10: Stern ahead by 12 with 57% reporting:

()

AD142 is likely gone.

()

And it looks like we're taking 10

64% reporting in AD-10 and Stern still holds a 10-point lead:

()

I still think that the Reform and Independence Party need to be shoved off the register with a scalp.

Burke's margin of loss narrowing a bit in 142 but he'd need basically two-thirds of the outstanding vote to win:

()

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

10th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 85,925)   Election Districts Reporting: 63 of 105
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Steve Stern   DEM   .   50.82 %   2,916   .   56.12 %   3,220
WOR   .   2.14 %   123           
IND   .   1.86 %   107           
WEP   .   1.01 %   58           
REF      0.28 %   16           
Janet L. Smitelli   REP   .   34.73 %   1,993   .   43.83 %   2,515
CON   .   9.10 %   522           
Blank         0.03 %   2      0.03 %   2
Void         0.02 %   1      0.02 %   1
Write-in         0.00 %   0      0.00 %   0
Total Votes   5,738

Dems at 5-0 so far.

BTW dems ahead in AD102 with 1 precinct in (LUL)

dems ahead 896-697 with 17 precincts in AD107

It's long since over, but 65% of precincts reporting in SD37 and Mayer is maintaining a 57-43 margin closing in on 5000 votes.

()

Good to see that the WFP contributed more votes than the WEP.

Gonna need to keep an eye on 107...

Stick a fork in it. AD-10 is a D pick up.

Republican held districts are 10,17,102, and 107, right?

Uh, where did you hear that? That's completely wrong. The conservadem has promised to caucus with the Democrats (it would be stupid to do otherwise. Democrats have the majority now that the IDC has at least temporarily desolved.)

Stern now up by over 1000 votes

Yeah, I'm reading that he'll caucus with the Dems too.

The NY Assembly is already so Democratic that picking up another seat don't mean much

Until the Cuomomander is undone...the Senate will stay R

Looks like all of 107's totals are coming out of Rensselaer County. Washington doesn't have anything up yet and I can't even find where Columbia's is.

Am I reading correctly? On Twitter I'm hearing the AD142 R candidate is going to caucus with the Dems.

AD5 - Slinkosky D 1159 (38.6%), Smith R 1839 (61.4%) 53/82

AD10 - Stern D 4250 (57.1%), Smitelli R 3191 (42.9%) 79/105

AD102 O'Conner D 37 954.4%), Tague R 31 (45.6%) 1/126

Ad17 Doran D 896 (56.1%), Ashby R 697 (43.6%) 17/111

Found them (107):

Columbia: https://sites.google.com/a/columbiacountyny.com/elections/election_information/election-results/election-night-results
Washington: https://www.washingtoncountyny.gov/802/Current-Elections-Results
Rensselaer: http://www.rensco.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SP_E_18_1_Summary-report.html

Yes, he is a labor Democrat who runs on the Republican line.

Republicans are winning Assembly District 5 in a Landslide.

AD102 where the Democrat is currently up 10 points is R+12...

Has your kiddie diddler conceded yet?

Always interesting to see the relative strength of the Conservative line vs. the official GOP line. It's pretty strong in a lot of districts.

Pretty impressive: Trump won by 23. Let's see if it holds.

AD 102 not looking good for dems:

102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 35 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   40.32 %   1,965   .   47.64 %   2,322
WOR   .   5.35 %   261           
WEP   .   1.97 %   96           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   37.67 %   1,836   .   50.43 %   2,458
CON   .   10.20 %   497           
IND   .   2.05 %   100           
REF      0.51 %   25           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   1.85 %   90   .   1.85 %   90
Blank         0.02 %   1      0.02 %   1
Void         0.00 %   0      0.00 %   0
Write-in         0.06 %   3      0.06 %   3
Total Votes   4,874

Welp, Steve Stern is outrunning the Anti-Cuomo counterwave.

More from 102:

35/126

O'Conner 47.6% - 2322

Tague 50.4% - 2458

VOTE DUMP: Dem is now UP in 102 by 6

If that were the final result, I'd say that would be pretty impressive considering the district.  It's still pretty early though.

EDIT:  Wow + O'Connor +6 now?  This should be a fun one to watch.

Uh, never mind:

 102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 50 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   44.67 %   3,053   .   52.33 %   3,576
WOR   .   5.65 %   386           
WEP   .   2.00 %   137           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   34.08 %   2,329   .   46.03 %   3,146
CON   .   9.58 %   655           
IND   .   1.92 %   131           
REF      0.45 %   31           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   1.57 %   107   .   1.57 %   107
Blank         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Void         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Write-in         0.04 %   3      0.04 %   3
Total Votes   6,834

WULFRIC PROJECTION: FIRST REPUBLICAN WIN

5th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 82,360)   Election Districts Reporting: 74 of 82
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Deborah L. Slinkosky   DEM   .   37.80 %   1,499   .   37.80 %   1,499
Douglas M. Smith   REP   .   44.93 %   1,782   .   62.05 %   2,461
CON   .   13.21 %   524           
IND   .   3.56 %   141           
REF      0.35 %   14           
Blank         0.03 %   1      0.03 %   1
Void         0.00 %   0      0.00 %   0
Write-in         0.13 %   5      0.13 %   5
Total Votes   3,966

5-1 D now, with 5 races outstanding.

I'm looking at other counties results' and it's going to be very close. Tague is going to net about 400 votes from Scoharie and a few hundred more from the smaller counties. O'Connor needs to push his margin up in those last 18 Greene county precincts (his home county).

102:
O'Connor: 51.61%
Tague: 46.49%

This would be quite the upset if the Dem wins 102, even Romney won the seat by 6 points.

64/126

O'Conner 4474 51.11%

Tague 4133 47.22%

R U R A L W A V E

Tague (R) is gonna win in AD-102

Look at Scoharie county: https://www.google.com/search?q=scoharie+county+election+results&oq=scoharie+county+elec&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j0j69i57j0l3.2206j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Which is not reported on the NYS Board site.

Will u calm down already

The swing in AD-10 was 13%, which is in-line with the national average.

That would make the current result a 400-vote lead for Tague.

Why is that third guy getting almost 30% of the vote?

AD102 67/126

O'Conner 50.53% 4656

Tague 47.7%  4396

Even if we do lose 102, it would still be at least a 20-point swing

Gap getting very small. Rs probably have this:

102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 69 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   43.13 %   4,101   .   50.23 %   4,776
WOR   .   5.10 %   485           
WEP   .   2.00 %   190           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   35.84 %   3,408   .   48.05 %   4,569
CON   .   9.52 %   905           
IND   .   2.22 %   211           
REF      0.47 %   45           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   1.64 %   156   .   1.64 %   156
Blank         0.02 %   2      0.02 %   2
Void         0.02 %   2      0.02 %   2
Write-in         0.03 %   3      0.03 %   3
Total Votes   9,508

Tague ahead by 600 based on current results (including Schoharie numbers (https://www2.schohariecounty-ny.gov/CountyWebSiteApp/faces/ElectionResultsIndex.xhtml)).

Nonzero chance that the Schoharie county result is in error.

Yeah, it's best to take anything not yet on the NYS site with a grain of salt.

Something to note of course is that if 102 is this close, then Similar yet more dem friendly 107 is probably a D flip once we get more numbers.

AD-10 was the 40th legislative seat the GOP lost under Trump.

Speaking of the 10th. As a LI guy something really werid is going on on the island. It went from serious Trump land in 2016 to resistance territory overnight. Lee Zeldin might seriously lose in November

AD102  79/126

O'Conner 50.62% 5364

Tague 47.58% 5042

Vote Dump: 142nd district. R is up 100 votes.

This would be a HOLD for the GOP though, since the current holder won as a Republican.

102 is also in NY-19...

Overall, this is turning out to be a fairly decent night for the NY Democrats. Sorry, Limo.

Doran and Ashby are going to have a very tight race in AD-107. With 37% of the vote in in Rensselaer county, Doran is winning by 1 point in the county: http://www.rensco.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SP_E_18_2_Summary-report.html

Trump won the portion of the county in AD-107 by 7 points. The district as a whole went to Trump by 4 points. So if she can keep that Rensselaer number up, a very narrow D pickup might be in the cards.

Just read that the NYGOP has held AD-10 since 1978. Good to see the up-ballot Democratic strength trickle down.

The "Republican" is actually a Democrat who will caucus with the Democrats. Mainly, this was a D vs D race ("progressive" versus "labor", if you will). You can thank the dumb fusion system for this confusion.

I didn't really follow politics closely back then, but were republicans successful at flipping state legislature seats before 2010 midterms?

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

 37th Senate District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 192,318)   Election Districts Reporting: 61 of 313
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Shelley Mayer   DEM   .   56.44 %   4,228   .   60.55 %   4,536
WOR   .   2.95 %   221           
WEP   .   1.16 %   87           
Julie P. Killian   REP   .   32.44 %   2,430   .   38.65 %   2,895
CON   .   5.50 %   412           
REF      0.71 %   53           
Blank         0.71 %   53      0.71 %   53
Void         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Write-in         0.08 %   6      0.08 %   6
Total Votes   7,491

Dems at 6-1 now. They were at 7-4 in these seats coming into tonight.

Ok that's a relief!

Yeah, but it was more of a long slog thing. A few here, a few there.

BTW 5 and 10 are all done. Final margins:

AD5: Smith (R) 2,840 63.06% to Slinkosky (D) 1,658 38.81%

AD10: Stern (D) 5,748 59.12% to Smiteli (R) 3,962 40.82%

Doran in AD-107 putting up big numbers in Washington and Columbia counties: https://sites.google.com/a/columbiacountyny.com/elections/election_information/election-results/election-night-results

If she can keep it close in Rensselaer, D flip.

Smith actually overperformed Limo's AD-5 prediction.

Why are there so so so many more special state legislature elections this year than in 2010?

I suspect that Long Island and Staten Island are where Trump got the closest to getting a personal 'home state' effect.

Columbia County has started to report in 107:

Doran - 719
Ashby - 354

https://sites.google.com/a/columbiacountyny.com/elections/election_information/election-results/election-night-results

And Washington as well:

Doran - 198
Ashby - 110

https://www.washingtoncountyny.gov/802/Current-Elections-Results

Doran is up BIG.

61-39%

In 107 thus far (totals for all 3 counties; 25% reporting):

Doran: 2016 (60.76%)
Ashby: 1293 (38.97%)
Other: 9 (0.27%)

O'Connor in HD-102 actually does have a path to victory. He needs to net 473 votes from Delaware and the remaining precincts in Albany to offset what's coming from Scoharie. If he does that, he's a winner baby.

That is an incredible differential in turnout! I suppose the Dem didn’t seriously contest AD-5, so the Republican slunk in on Trump-era turnout?

In 107 thus far (totals for all 3 counties; 31% reporting):

Doran: 2428 (56.96%)
Ashby: 1824 (42.79%)
Other: 11 (0.25%)

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

107th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 86,761)   Election Districts Reporting: 104 of 111
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Cynthia Doran   DEM   .   41.01 %   5,840   .   47.96 %   6,829
WOR   .   4.23 %   602           
WEP   .   2.72 %   387           
Jacob C. Ashby   REP   .   36.67 %   5,222   .   51.91 %   7,391
CON   .   10.00 %   1,424           
IND   .   4.60 %   655           
REF      0.63 %   90           
Blank         0.01 %   2      0.01 %   2
Void         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Write-in         0.11 %   16      0.11 %   16
Total Votes   14,239

Uh-oh. Doran getting 55% of the vote in Columbia county now with a bunch of R precincts dropping. Hillary won the portion of the county in AD-107 53-41. Doran needs to outperform her by more than that to feel safe.

Someone, please tell me that what just happened on the election results page was just a glitch and that 17, 102, AND 107 didn't all just dump together.

Wait, what?

There's no evidence to suggest that it's a glitch.

Nope. No glitch. Doran got massacred in the remaining Rensselaer ballots. She needs to pray that the last 7 Columbia precincts are good for her. O'Connor actually has a chance. He just needs to net a few hundred votes out of Delaware county.

Holy Christ, that sucks.

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

17th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 93,713)   Election Districts Reporting: 83 of 109
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Mathew W. Malin   DEM   .   29.26 %   732   .   32.21 %   806
WOR   .   1.88 %   47           
WEP   .   1.08 %   27           
John K. Mikulin   REP   .   53.72 %   1,344   .   66.75 %   1,670
CON   .   11.31 %   283           
IND   .   1.52 %   38           
REF      0.20 %   5           
Blank         0.00 %   0      0.00 %   0
Void         0.08 %   2      0.08 %   2
Write-in         0.96 %   24      0.96 %   24
Total Votes   2,502

The Dems at 6-3 now, with 102 and 142 outstanding. If both of those go R, Republicans would have a net gain of one seat.

Finally AD17:

83/109

Malin (D) 32.2% 806

Mikulin (R) 66.75% 1670

Where is the results page?

Ashby has won the 107th district for the GOP.

C*ckblock to the extreme in AD-107... I was sure Doran had it. And then her leads evaporated in Rensselaer and Columbia.

FFS Wulfric both candidates in 142 are Democrats

I'm going by what they're listed by on the ballot.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Doran still has an about 25% chance... if she can match the margins in some of the very-democratic precincts already reported in Columbia county for all 7 remaining precincts, she can pull ahead.

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

And 142 isn't even a "R" its just weird.

It’s a Democrat with the R ballot line, because New York has to be special that way

http://buffalonews.com/2018/04/24/erik-bohen-appears-to-capture-142nd-district-assembly-race/

142 is just a weird district

So D+1 for the night.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

They held AD-10 before tonight and lost that.

They've held AD-10 since 1978.

Right, but one of 102 or 107 is currently held by Ds (forget which), and 142 is also D-held.

No. They had 5,10,17,102,107.

(At least according to Limo's thread)

Neither 102 or 107 are held by Democrats.

No they were both R held https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/21/1758947/-April-24-New-York-s-Spring-Special-Elections-Spectacular

R's lost one if we assume 142 stays in caucus, or wash if take the label at face value

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate tonight?

I saw an earlier comment on this thread with only 4 of those listed that no one replied to, but whatever.

So even according to ballot designations if the current leaders stay ahead.

No...scammer Simcha Felder is registered as D but votes R

Unfortunately, no.

AD-5 63-37 60-36 +2 GOP SWING
AD-10 59-41 52-45 +11 DEM SWING
AD-17 63-36 58-39 +10 GOP SWING
AD-39 UNCONTESTED
AD-74 90-5 85-11 +11 DEM SWING
AD-80 81-18 82-16 +3 GOP SWING
AD-102 46-44 59-36 +21 DEM SWING
AD-107 52-48 49-45 NO SWING
AD-142 53-47 51-45 NO SWING
SD-32 89-2 93-5 +1 GOP SWING
SD-37 58-42 59-38 +5 GOP SWING

Average Dem Swing tonight of 5 points. Blue wave? That's your call.

GOP wins 142 officially:

142nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 84,754)   Election Districts Reporting: 55 of 55
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Patrick B. Burke   DEM   .   42.95 %   4,787   .   47.49 %   5,293
WOR   .   3.71 %   414           
REF      0.83 %   92           
Erik T. Bohen   REP   .   35.25 %   3,929   .   52.32 %   5,831
CON   .   10.66 %   1,188           
IND   .   6.41 %   714           
Blank         0.03 %   3      0.03 %   3
Void         0.05 %   6      0.05 %   6
Write-in         0.11 %   12      0.11 %   12
Total Votes   11,145

So 6-4 now.

G. Elliott Morris said it doesn't affect the national average. Plus, New York is already a reliable Blue state, where we should be able to pick up at least 2 seats in November.

I really hope the Democratic party of New York invested in O'Connor and Doran's races. If they got no financial support....

Are we sure it's accurate that the independent got 10% of the vote in AD-102? I'm reading on DKE that he's only getting a significant % (27%) in one county. It seems odd.

Makes sense to me in an election like this—he only turns out his neighbors.

But getting 1800 votes from just one country?  I'm not so sure on that.

Only outstanding race is very close.

102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 124 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   38.17 %   7,028   .   44.34 %   8,164
WOR   .   4.38 %   807           
WEP   .   1.79 %   329           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   34.47 %   6,347   .   45.84 %   8,439
CON   .   8.41 %   1,548           
IND   .   2.47 %   455           
REF      0.48 %   89           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   9.72 %   1,789   .   9.72 %   1,789
Blank         0.02 %   4      0.02 %   4
Void         0.04 %   7      0.04 %   7
Write-in         0.04 %   8      0.04 %   8
Total Votes   18,411

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 126 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   38.16 %   7,110   .   44.32 %   8,259
WOR   .   4.37 %   814           
WEP   .   1.80 %   335           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   34.54 %   6,437   .   45.87 %   8,547
CON   .   8.39 %   1,563           
IND   .   2.45 %   457           
REF      0.48 %   90           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   9.71 %   1,809   .   9.71 %   1,809
Blank         0.02 %   4      0.02 %   4
Void         0.04 %   7      0.04 %   7
Write-in         0.04 %   8      0.04 %   8
Total Votes   18,634

Final composition is 6-5 Dem, no overall change.

All done:

AD102 : Tague (R) 45.9%, 8,547 to O'Conner (D) 44.3% 8,295 to Laraway (I) 9.7% 1,809

AD107 : Ashby (R) 51.1% 7,558 to Doran (D) 48.7% 7,205

D+1 on the night thanks to oddities in Erie.

Goddamnit we could have had 3 pickups... we were less than 500 votes away.

Looks like a lot of New Yorkers were motivated to not vote.  I guess the attitude was it really did not matter.

NY also has some of the most restrictive voting laws in America. Worse than any red state I can think of

Which is why real progressives need to make everything so the fossils establishment and Cuomo are all primaried out.

In a lot of the legislative races, it looks like Republicans won on the strength of the "Independence Party" ballot line.

The "Independence" vote made the difference in like 3 of the races...

Schedule for May

May 1

Florida
See also: Florida state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Florida House of Representatives District 39   
[show]☐ Florida House of Representatives District 114   
Massachusetts
See also: Massachusetts state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Massachusetts State Senate First Suffolk District   
South Carolina
See also: South Carolina state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ South Carolina House of Representatives District 69

May 5

Texas
See also: Texas state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Texas House of Representatives District 13

May 15

Alabama
See also: Alabama state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Alabama House of Representatives District 4   
[show]☐ Alabama State Senate District 26   
Pennsylvania
See also: Pennsylvania state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 48   
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 68   
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 178   

May 22

Arkansas
See also: Arkansas state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 16   
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 29   
[show]☐ Arkansas House of Representatives District 83   

This is, of course, due to Republican control of the state senate.

Actually, Cuomo and the NY Dems also hold a good share of the blame here.

So, both parties have reasons to be satisfied to some (but - not full) extent. Democrats held an important state Senate seat, and flipped relatively "low-hanging fruit" in AD10, but got a stern reminder in AD142: even in the North-East a "progressive" isn't always the best candidate (AFAIK - Buffalo area is full of "old school" Democrats: pro-labor, pro-gun and pro-life, for example). Republicans formally flipped AD142, and narrowly escaped defeats in 2 other districts, a sort of achievement in present environment..

  With the latest anemic GOP performance in a congressional special election tonite, New York actually offers up some ok news for them.  If I was Trump I'd twitter about this, not Arizona.

Well the new Assemblyman from district 142 is a union-backed registered Democrat who plans to caucus with the Democrats. I wouldn’t really call that a flipped seat

Thanks. I know that (that's why i used "formally"). But -  simply wanted to stress, that in different districts you need different types of candidates for victory. The obvious thing, that's too frequently forgotten...

Wow, the Dems' performances in NY-05 and NY-17 were absolutely pathetic. There weren't even big swings, let alone wins. Wasn't this supposed to be big suburban territory?

And I don't get the hype for the two Senate seats. Both seats were vacated by Democrats. The wins don't mean anything IMO.

I don't know what it is about New York and New Jersey, but they don't seem to see large seat turnovers in waves. New Jersey seems even more frozen in place. Republicans couldn't flip a single seat in 2013 despite winning the state Senate popular vote comfortably, and Democrats only won 1 more Senate seat despite crushing Republicans by like almost 20 points. Likewise New York Democrats only made marginal improvements in the state Senate in 2006 and 2008.

Probably a function of them being less idieological transactional machines states

BIG....Dems now have a real shot at taking the NY Senate (thanks to scammer Simcha)

https://www.twitter.com/CapitalTonight/status/989282706600222721

Unfortunately this district is very Republican downballot.  This is Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno's old district.  This district includes all of AD-107, which Dems lost narrowly last night.

SD-43 doesn't seem too bad. It's 48.53 - 45.59% Trump, from 52.88 - 45.21% Obama. All things considered, it's not a lock, but it at least seems doable.

^ That was what I was going to post, but then I double-checked the spreadsheet, and it seems like if presidential numbers held a lot of sway here like they do in some other states, the state Senate would have long ago flipped. Republicans hold tons of Obama 2012 districts. Some of these aren't even remotely close either, like SD-56 (Robach), which went for Clinton and Obama by large double digits. How is it Republicans hold on so well to these seats? If these were the presidential numbers of seats in Virginia, Republicans would be little more than a rump party, a la OK Democrats.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1513373530

Wow, you're right. This helps contextualize the special election results as well. Makes Mayer's 57-43 win in a 59-38 Clinton district seem very impressive, as well as the democratic over-performances around Albany.

More specifically, why do Republicans in the state Senate overperform so much compared to the Assembly? Assembly Republicans have been powerless since the 70s. Meanwhile, Democrats don't even hold a single Senate seat in Monroe County.

The 1st, 3rd, 39th, 40th, 41st, 56th and 58th all are possible pickups. Dems just need one.

I'm thinking that, at best, New York could see a little house cleaning with Republicans over the next two cycles. The Virginia GOP held a decent number of Obama/Clinton seats until 2017, when Democrats were finally able to exploit the unpopular nature of a Republican president and turn voters against basically every politician with an R next to their name - politicians these voters were content to reelect when Obama was crushing the spirits of downballot Democrats during his presidency. It doesn't work the same for all states (as I mentioned before, NJ/NY seem to be resistant somewhat), but usually a change in the White House "shocks" the system and forces trends that existed only at the presidential level to begin developing downballot. Similar to how Bill Clinton and Obama caused mass carnage for Democrats in Southern states, where the local party had still been strong for an absurdly long time. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think this would happen in NY - even NJ Democrats performed extremely strongly in the popular vote in 2017 - far better than anytime in possibly decade(s), it's just the seat turnover was poor, maybe because of the legislative maps (?).

Does anyone know what the likely partisan composition of the New York state senate would be under a fair map?

A fair map would have on average 38 D seats:

Wait a minute. I don't have the link, but I read an article in the last day or two that Felder is expected, after extracting significant concessions from the party of course, to rejoin the Democratic caucus 2 stay in the majority.

It makes sense. I'm guessing he realizes that the IDC is, at least temporarily, crumbling and the chances of Republicans somehow keeping there Ultra fragile majority in the next year or two it is unlikely. Therefore he wants to extract his concessions now when they're worth a lot as opposed to in two years when the Democrats hold a 2 or 3 seat majority even without him.

Quite possible. That's how politics is usually conducted in New York....

The last day or two would potentially put your time of seeing that article at Monday. As of Monday, that was indeed the story, but that changed shortly before the polls closed on Tuesday: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/24/nyregion/simcha-felder-republicans-senate.html

Now, there has been stuff like this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/nyregion/cuomo-felder-democrats.html and this: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/cuomo-urges-felder-seize-opportunity-rejoin-democrats-article-1.3954399 that makes it clear that Cuomo isn't giving up, but it's more in the context of Cuomo being down on his knees and begging this guy to switch over, not in the context of Felder actually reconsidering.

There's no reason for Felder to join the Dems. He has nothing to gain and he can never lose. His district goes through the heart of Jewish Midwood, Boro Park and Flatbush, and has the largest concentration of Jews in N America. If it wasn't for gerrymandering, there would be 2 GOP Jewish districts and a third GOP Catholic district in Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst.

2 more GOP NY State Senators flee:

Hudson Valley Republican John Bonacic won’t run for re-election to the state Senate.
 (https://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/281844/hudson-valley-republican-wont-seek-senate-re-election/)
Sen. John DeFrancisco won’t seek re-election to the state Senate in November, according to his spokeswoman.
 (https://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/281827/senator-defrancisco-wont-pursue-senate-re-election/)
Cuomomander is so close to being finished

What are the PVIs of those seats? Are they probable D pickups?

Both are districts that voted for Obama twice but then swung toward Trump so it's possible

Republican South Dakota 32 district house rep Sean McPherson passed away yesterday.

http://rapidcityjournal.com/news/state-rep-mcpherson-dies-of-cancer/article_67b3e3e9-a52b-5d1f-bf38-42704f2b632f.html

RIP so young

Looking at the maps, these both look gerrymandered to keep Democratic voters in other neighboring districts. I guess they both stay R unless the NY Senate is heading toward a massive blue wave.

Today there are 4 specials - 2 in florida and one each in Massachusetts and in South Carolina. Only the Florida ones are contested by both sides though. We should get our results quickly, if  past results are to judge, thankfully.

Great twitter thread by Politico Florida reporter Marc Caputo on why the Republican is doing so well in HD-114 in Miami-Dade county:

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/991302217591328770

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/991302223085953025

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/991302225451470848

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/991302230794960897

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/991302235333316608

This is why I have this district as Tossup/Tilt-R. The Democratic organization on the ground seems to be very very weak.

Sounds like the FL Dems are punting this one as usual.

Democrats in big trouble here -->

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991350299657895942

What’s the Massachusetts district being contested? The southie-Dorchester one?

First Suffolk district, but the Dem is running unopposed. The South Carolina race is a republican running unopposed.

Florida Results will be here once polls close at 7 ET: http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/ElectionResults/default?Election=05/01/2018

Considering Democrats only gained the 114th in Florida in 2016 by a narrow margin at the same time that Trump was massively underperforming there, it would not particularly surprise me if they don't hold on to this one tonight. Unless either candidate wins in a landslide, I doubt it will tell us much of anything about the congressional elections in South Florida, given that Trump is absolutely going to be a factor in those races.

It will be interesting to compare thus to the SD40 race last fall, and see what has changed.

Im fully expecting Dems to lose FL-HD-114.

The important election is in November anyway.

Polls are closed in Florida.

Gonna be a close race.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991453052157808640

39 likely r
114 tossup

Those Election Day turnout numbers are good for the Dems, especially in states like Pennsylvania that don’t have early voting.

NPAs historically lean Dem btw

http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/ElectionResults/default?Election=05/01/2018 <- SOS page

Dems need around 60% of NPA with these numbers. Looks doable to me

Republican is up 52%-45% in FL-HD-114.

LimoLiberal FTW!

Blue Wave dead y’all

Looks like this is probably all from the absentee/early vote, based on the totals.

Results are only in from Osceola which went 53-42 clinton nothing from polk yet which went 61-33 trump and has way more voters

In-person early vote is not in that number. Should be good enough for at least 500 votes in the margin

You are insufferable.

Limo never fails to make everyone laugh

Nothing I wrote in that blurb is wrong. The blue wave isn't dead. But it's still a bad loss for Florida democrats, and really casts doubt on the ability to topple Carlos Curbelo.

Nothing I wrote is wrong either.

Matthew Isbell is still calling it a tossup

The polk county dump was way to much for the dem to withstand in 39

I'll go ahead and make the obvious call:

State Representative, District 39
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Josie Tomkow   
REP   8,810   
61.79%
Ricky Shirah   
DEM   5,449   
38.21%
Total    14,259   

--------------

Still plenty to wait for in the other race. According to the display at the top, we don't even have all of the early vote for this race.

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Andrew Vargas   
REP   5,800   
52.15%
Javier Fernandez   
DEM   4,993   
44.89%
Liz de las Cuevas   
NPA   329   
2.96%
Total    11,122   

He was amusing for a while, but wore it out a long time ago.

So I saw that chick in the 39 race is only 22. Support her or not, that’s pretty cool

Not surprised to see dems lose (if it happens). FL dems are terribly organized and Trump way underperformed around Miami compared to a regular R. That's why I am not expecting dems to win FL-25 even though it was only Trump + 1.6

She will have a big future in politics

Marc Caputo says Election Day numbers indicate Fernandez won

https://twitter.com/marcacaputo/status/991458417993834496?s=21

Like I have said earlier: the Dems beat the GOP in Election Day voting by 13%. That’s great for the Democrats in states that don’t hold early voting like Pennsylvania.

Wrong, LimoLiberal's Mind Model told me Vargas won

Early voting now in
Vargas(R) 49.69% 6450
Fernandez(D) 47.59% 6178

The rest of the early vote came in, narrowed the margin to under 300. Still waiting on E-day:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Andrew Vargas   
REP   6,450   
49.69%
Javier Fernandez   
DEM   6,178   
47.59%
Liz de las Cuevas   
NPA   353   
2.72%
Total    12,981

Wow. Fernandez is winning this race... if I’m reading that correctly. That’s not Election Day, right?

Fernandez has this.

Yes, that is in-person early voting + absentee voting.

This electorate was 46% GOP, 37% Dem, 17% NPA

Wow, so the Dem won the lion’s share of independents.

WRONG REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

LIMO TOLD ME VARGAS WONNNNNN

If Vargas doesn't win, I'll quit Atlas for a week. He's going to win. Not concern-trolling, but Fernandez can't make that deficit up.

And, no, the blue wave is still on. This is just Cuban Republicans being Cuban Republicans.

Finally, why does Osceola only have 4% turnout? Is that a typo?

Probably some of the GOP as well, like we have seen in the past in areas where GOP registration outpaces clinton vote.

Limo LOLberal

Very glad that we will get a week free of Limoliberal.

Dude, Vargas won the early vote by only 300, the Dems outpaced the GOP in Election Day voting by 13%. If you’re right, then props to you! But I wouldn’t count on it.

300 vote difference and 3000 election day votes. Fernandez will win by 1-3 points.

Is the Florida legislature in session or is the winner just acting as a seat warmer?

The midterms are looking REALLY great.

Miami-Dade updated!!!

Fernandez (D) 50.84% 8433
Vargas (R) 46.70% 7747

Not even close.

Fernandez leading 8,433 to 7,747

55/64 precincts

Guess Limo's out for a week.

WULFRIC PROJECTION: Fernandez wins, LimoLiberal must leave atlas for a week.

84% in:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Andrew Vargas   
REP   7,747   
46.7%
Javier Fernandez   
DEM   8,433   
50.84%
Liz de las Cuevas   
NPA   408   
2.46%
Total    16,588   

Fernandez (D) winning by 4 points now.

Enjoy your vaca, Andrew!

Dem's are going to win this by a larger margin than the 2016 State House race, it looks like.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Well, it looks like someone will be demoralized and humiliated.  But perhaps not the Democrats.

A dEmOrAlIzInG aNd HuMiLiAtInG lOsS fOr DeMoCrAtS!

LOL

Please clap.

Another LimoLib self own

I'm just realizing now that this is a Dem hold rather then a gain. I thought this was another open Cuban seat like the ones last year.

We have final results in the non-competitive seat now:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Josie Tomkow   
REP   9,891   
59.88%
Ricky Shirah   
DEM   6,628   
40.12%
Total    16,519

As of now, Fernandez outperformed every Democrat in recent history here, except Clinton and Nelson.

This is an open seat with a lot of Cubans in fairness, but Cubans aren't quite as overpowering as they are in SD-40.

Bye Felicia. See you in a week

Better than the 2016 result for the state legislature there, at least.

Fernandez was endorsed by Joe Biden a few days ago. In the Trump era, Joe's something like 16 to 1 now

True, I would’ve liked to expand Clinton’s margin here, but it shows that indepdents are strongly on our side for November. Plus, look at the Election Day voting: 13-point advantage for Dems. Great news for us in states like PA that don’t have early in-person voting.

Only a very minor swing to the GOP from the Pres race too:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/991465462100873221

Not lookin good for Prick Scott

Carlos Curbelo is going to lose!

These Cuban districts are still strongly Republican downballot. These wins by Democrats are nothing to sneeze at.

ftfy

This is not a good sign for Republicans.

Lol. I don't want to see any bragging from a Miami dem. While this area is more gop downballot, this should have been a much bigger dem win.

FL dems really need to start organizing.

Obama only won by a point here in 2012...

Yep, and candidates in state legislative races can credibly try to make these elections not about Trump. That's far less likely to work in the Congressional elections.

I didn't mention anything about the Cubans. I was talking about the turnout figures and independents.

This certainly doesn't look like good news for Curbelo, but it doesn't destroy his chances of pulling out a win.
Florida Democrats don't exactly have a great track record either...

This was a fine result. Fernandez did better than Murphy 2016, Crist in 2014, and Obama in 2012. He also did better than Daisy Baez did when she flipped this seat in 2016.

It's a sign the Cubanos might be shifting away from the GOP, but it's not definitive proof, and the race will be affected by multiple other factors.

The Democrats may want to consider utilizing him in a few of the swing districts, especially in Pennsylvania.

I sent a message to LimoLiberal asking him to come on here and make a concession speech, but he doesn't appear to be responding.

I love you.

Florida is Lying, LimoLiberal is correct because he always is.

REEEE ILLEGAL WHITE VOTES

Maybe I'm missing something, but the precinct map on the county elections website seems utterly incoherent. Like, it doesn't look even remotely contiguous: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Dade/75016/196174/en/pr_zoom.html (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Dade/75016/196174/en/pr_zoom.html)

Why don't people realize that a ton of republicans are voting D? Just look at AZ-08, lol.

In 2006, Chris Shays, Jim Gerlach, and Fred Upton all bucked the Democratic wave and won another term. Meanwhile Rick Santorum and Joe Hostetler were blown out by bigger margins than they should have been, on paper.
In a wave some especially strong incumbents will hold on their seats, while some incumbents get completely squashed, worse than you might expect, even taking into account the environment.
Curbelo better pray that his fate will be like that of Gerlach!

Final Results:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Andrew Vargas   
REP   7,894   
46.64%
Javier Fernandez   
DEM   8,618   
50.92%
Liz de las Cuevas   
NPA   414   
2.45%
Total    16,926   

The next special election is in Texas House of Representatives District 13 on Saturday.

Do we have any numbers on that one?

Democrats have very little of a chance here. This is essentially in the deep red uber-rural areas to the west of Houston.

I wouldn't expect much excitement here.  Per Ballotpedia, the Republican won 79-21 in 2016.

district went 20-77 Trump

LmaoLiberal. Back to Virginia form, are we? I'm disappointed. Enjoy your week off.

Still don't support banning him. He's much more reasonable than Lear (he did think Lamb would win IIRC), and is actually capable of backing up his slightly hackish predictions. And I want SOMEONE to get owned in November.

()

Interesting, he underperformed Clinton but still expanded the map.

()

Any Floridians wanna explain what's going on around West Miami? Swingy in 2016 and a return to form in 2018. Why did it trend opposite of the rest of the state (and most of the rest of the country, lol) from 16 to 18? Was there just something really odd about one of the candidates in 2016?

West Miami is extremely cuban, moreso than almost any other neighborhood in Miami. Marco Rubio is from there.

Something, something, Cuban voters.

HD-114 shifted 10 points to the right in margin from the 2016 presidential election. FL-26, if it followed the same shift, would elect a Democrat by 6 points in November. But Curbelo is a very strong incumbent. Si fuera Curbelo, respiraría un poco más tranquilo esta noche.

But this result shows the energy that Democrats still have. It is a Republican area downballot and Vargas seemed to have many advantages, including stronger ground organization and fundraising along with the district's Republican tradition. Many observers recognized this and called the race a tossup, leading me to my rating.

I find it interesting that there was basically no shift from 2016 in HD-39, even as this area was closer in 2012. Someone brought up a great point that an Alabama candidate spent 2K while his Republican candidate spend 25 times as much and still overperformed Hillary by double digits. Ricky Shirah (D) was similarly outspent. But he didn't overperform Hillary at all. This comes as Trump hits yearly highs in approval as categorized in the RCP and 538 aggregators. We can never know if Trump's recently expanding popularity has had an effect on these elections, considering each's obscurity. But perhaps that's something to look out for in the future, with Democrats barely (or not all) putting up swings in recent NY and FL state legislative specials.

Whatever the case, it's clear that Democrats still have energy. I won't be so quick to assume that a Republican will win an election (even with seemingly stronger organization and enthusiasm) in districts that shifted left from 2012 to 2016.

Limo, you promised...

So I am guessing Baez is a Cuban candidate and syphoned off enough votes from West Miami in 2016 to pass the finish line?

Even if all the Baez votes went to the GOP (which they wouldn't necessarily, she sent out mailers calling herself a "true progressive"), the Dem would have still won.

It's just that Cuban voters are very GOP downballot still, which would be shown even more because it's more likely to be older Cubans than younger Cubans (lower turnout = older electorate usually). Older Cubans are loyal GOPers, younger Cubans are more Dem leaning.

While this post offers a good recap of the race, LimoLiberal was only authorized to come back on here  to make a concession speech regarding his calling of the race for the republican. This makes no mention of his call and therefore is not such a speech, and the moderators should remove the post.

Remarks from @ScottPresler:

Lol, so NOW that moron cares about margins? He called the AZ-08 a “massive blow” to the Democrats and brushed off PA-18 simply because Lamb won by only 700 votes. The idiocy of that guy is infuriating.

Hey a Woke Joe Walsh sighting!

I don't know if I would call it trolling (although if it was, it would be top-notch). If you look at some of the videos/gifs of himself he posts on his feed, he is 100% involved in politics, to the point where he is spending a lot of time sending actual thank you letters to Trump voters, and standing on intersection sidewalks with skinny jeans holding MAGA signs.

I think he 100% believes what he says. That level of delusional is more common than we'd like to admit, and applicable to more than just politics.

IDC is done

Fourth Republican announces Senate retirement

Long Island Sen. Tom Croci made his rumored departure official and told his Republican colleagues that he won’t be pursuing re-election in November.
 (https://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/281946/fourth-republican-announces-senate-retirement/)

Kane (The wrestler) won the republican primary for Knox county, TN!!

lol

Yes, the Democratic Party is the party of celebrities.

Another one!

Sen. Bill Larkin plans to hold a press conference on Thursday to announce what is expected to be his decision to forego re-election, a retirement that would cap a 40-year career in Albany and make him the fifth Republican senator in the last two weeks to announce their departure.
 (http://www.recordonline.com/news/20180502/larkin-expected-to-announce-retirement-thursday)

Probably a parody of rabid Trump supporters and pessimistic pundits.

If they think Michelle Wolf will cost Democrats seats, Democrats will gain 100+ seats in the house.

I’d already forgotten a Michelle Wolf was a thing

Oh Richard, can't you save this for rrh? ::)

Democratic Massachusetts House Rep for the 6th Middlesex District Chris Walsh passed away yesterday.

http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/05/03/chris-walsh-mass-house-died

IDC=ded

Fifth NY GOP state senator in a week announces retirement plans (http://buffalonews.com/2018/05/03/fifth-gop-state-senator-in-a-week-announces-retirement-plans/)

Wow, NY Senate Republicans are retiring like crazy. This should be more than enough seats being vacated to secure at least one of them and flip the chamber.

Rumor has it there may be up to 5-6 more GOP retirements in the State Senate. About 40% of the GOPers in the State Senate may bail before November

Why are they all retiring? Did the special elections scare them that much? I mean, the special elections were fairly good for dems margin-wise and suggest dems take the senate, but they weren't like terrifying wave territory.

They do only hold the majority by one seat thanks to Simcha Felder, so it's not unreasonable at all to assume they will lose the Senate even if they perform above the national environment. Democrats are practically assured to dismantle the gerrymandered map if they control the chamber for the next round of redistricting, so I guess they're deciding to jump ship before it fully sinks.

SPECIAL ELECTION ALERT: TX 13th State House election today. Republican incumbent resigned to take a lobbying job at Blinn.
The Republican candidates are Ben Leman and Jill Wolfskill and the Democratic candidate is Cecil Webster.
Should be a Republican hold.

79% Trump. Very likely - yes.

I live in this district and it looks like there is a high turnout for the early voting. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans have around a total 70% of the vote.

Polls close at 8 ET. Results pages:

Austin County: Possibly https://austincountynewsonline.com/election-results/

Burleson County: http://co.burleson.tx.us/government/elections/election-results/

Colorado County: http://www.co.colorado.tx.us/default.aspx?Colorado_County/Elections

Fayette County: http://www.co.fayette.tx.us/page/fayette.Elections

Grimes County: http://www.co.grimes.tx.us/page/Election%20Results

Not seeing a page for Lavaca and Washington counties.

Add up results from all counties to get the final result.

I believe the non-partisan redistricting law New York passed before the last redistricting also kicks in for the state legislature in the 2020 redistricting (they delayed the state legislature until 2020 last time as a compromise), so the gerrymander is dead regardless, which means the New York State Senate Republican majority is doomed in the near future anyway.

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10? :]

Pretty sure it’s already been happening

70% would be an underperformance of Prez toplines, then.

I think 2016 was a bad year for Democrats in TX 13th, like it was the absolute worse they could do. I'm sure they can do a little better in a special election. Good news for Democrats though is there is no place to go from here, but up. Bad news for Democrats though is that the Democrats are running the same person that lost the 2016 election. Both Wolfskill and Leman are good candidates in there own right, however I see a 9 point swing or something larger as possible.

Polls have closed. Try to track down results.

https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/may05_328_state.htm (https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/may05_328_state.htm)

Ben Leman   REP   1,751   39.25%   1,751   39.25%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   817   18.31%   817   18.31%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   1,893   42.43%   1,893   42.43%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      4,461      4,461   
Precincts Reported      3   of   75 Precincts      4.00%

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

I mean Ana Navarro started squealing about the "blue wave" when democrats won by 3% in a seat Clinton won by 20%

Unrelatable, and I do not recall such a race.

HD-114 it was literally this Tuesday and you were posting about it

Clinton did not win HD114 by 20 points.

Also it's still a big deal the Democrats won a seat that Cuban in a down ballot race.

1) Clinton carried that seat by 14%, not 20%.
2) A large Cuban population means that presidential numbers are practically meaningless in Miami-Dade.

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   1,751   39.25%   1,985   38.33%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   817   18.31%   1,027   19.83%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   1,893   42.43%   2,166   41.83%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      4,461      5,178   
Precincts Reported      7   of   75 Precincts      9.33%

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,133   39.51%   2,367   38.70%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,051   19.47%   1,261   20.62%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,214   41.01%   2,487   40.67%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,398      6,115   
Precincts Reported      8   of   75 Precincts      10.67%

The democratic candidate in 2016 received 22%, so this is a 1% swing to Rs from that.

THE BLUE WAVE IS DEAD

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,133   39.51%   2,658   38.91%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,051   19.47%   1,402   20.52%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,214   41.01%   2,771   40.56%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,398      6,831   
Precincts Reported      21   of   75 Precincts      28.00%

Great news for John McCain House Republicans!

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,747   40.64%   3,272   39.94%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,418   20.98%   1,769   21.59%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,593   38.36%   3,150   38.45%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      6,758      8,191   
Precincts Reported      27   of   75 Precincts      36.00%

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,747   40.64%   3,488   40.21%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,418   20.98%   1,859   21.43%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,593   38.36%   3,326   38.34%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      6,758      8,673   
Precincts Reported      35   of   75 Precincts      46.67%

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,747   40.64%   4,269   39.52%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,418   20.98%   2,234   20.68%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,593   38.36%   4,298   39.79%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      6,758      10,801   
Precincts Reported      56   of   75 Precincts      74.67%

I’m more curious how TX munis went