Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Arch on March 29, 2018, 08:50:26 am



Title: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Arch on March 29, 2018, 08:50:26 am
Poll Taken: March 2018

Casey: 43 [D+18]
Barletta: 25

Link: https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/708725106986767486-f-m-poll-release-march-2018.pdf


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Ebsy on March 29, 2018, 09:02:51 am
Not surprising.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: MasterJedi on March 29, 2018, 09:03:11 am
Titanium R, PA is Republican now (sarcasm)


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: RINO Tom on March 29, 2018, 09:13:28 am
Titanium R, PA is Republican now (sarcasm)

I've honestly seen as many Democratic hacks who don't want to be associated with the "Rust Belt" talk about the region being "gone" as Republican hacks.  Both are stupid.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Gass3268 on March 29, 2018, 09:23:24 am
Titanium R, PA is Republican now (sarcasm)

I've honestly seen as many Democratic hacks who don't want to be associated with the "Rust Belt" talk about the region being "gone" as Republican hacks.  Both are stupid.

Yet those same folks also are in love with the Philly suburbs.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 29, 2018, 09:54:02 am
Titanium R, PA is Republican now (sarcasm)

I've honestly seen as many Democratic hacks who don't want to be associated with the "Rust Belt" talk about the region being "gone" as Republican hacks.  Both are stupid.

Yet those same folks also are in love with the Philly suburbs.
It's a sad day when the center left party cares more about appeasing Dallas country clubs than Pittsburgh.

Great poll, though.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Gass3268 on March 29, 2018, 10:03:27 am
Titanium R, PA is Republican now (sarcasm)

I've honestly seen as many Democratic hacks who don't want to be associated with the "Rust Belt" talk about the region being "gone" as Republican hacks.  Both are stupid.

Yet those same folks also are in love with the Philly suburbs.
It's a sad day when the center left party cares more about appeasing Dallas country clubs than Pittsburgh.

Great poll, though.

Even though Hillary did better in Pittsburgh and Allegheny County than Obama did in 2012.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: RINO Tom on March 29, 2018, 10:17:50 am
Titanium R, PA is Republican now (sarcasm)

I've honestly seen as many Democratic hacks who don't want to be associated with the "Rust Belt" talk about the region being "gone" as Republican hacks.  Both are stupid.

{citation needed}

That's rich comin' from you, LOL.  I'm not going to dig through dozens of users' past posts to defend an anecdotal claim I made on an Internet message board to someone who trolls me constantly, as if you care or be moved by my response either way, dude.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Shameless Bernie Hack on March 29, 2018, 11:38:49 am
Well, fwiw, the only Democrats I ever remember seriously arguing that nonsense were Non-Swing Voter (who turned to Libertarianism lol) and a dingus who wrote a Politico article in December 2016 imploring Democrats to abandon he Midwest in favor of greener pastures in Texas, Arizona and Georgia. Of course, Dems should target the latter two states, but anyone who argues the Midwest is a lost cause for either party is a buffoon. Now, Iíve heard plenty of people describe Ohio and Iowa as Leans or likely R states and advocating for ignoring them Presidentially, but thatís much different than ďabandoning the Rust BeltĒ


A lot of mucky mucks within the party who are directly interested in party resources moving South are quietly making the argument. And one can view the Obama/Trump vs Rising American Electorate arguments (ESPECIALLY the people who draw a strong dichotomy between those two choices as the only options) as a proxy argument for abandoning the industrial midwest to go to the sunbelt and vice versa.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Wisconsin SC Race 2019 on March 29, 2018, 11:47:48 am
Well, fwiw, the only Democrats I ever remember seriously arguing that nonsense were Non-Swing Voter (who turned to Libertarianism lol) and a dingus who wrote a Politico article in December 2016 imploring Democrats to abandon he Midwest in favor of greener pastures in Texas, Arizona and Georgia. Of course, Dems should target the latter two states, but anyone who argues the Midwest is a lost cause for either party is a buffoon. Now, Iíve heard plenty of people describe Ohio and Iowa as Leans or likely R states and advocating for ignoring them Presidentially, but thatís much different than ďabandoning the Rust BeltĒ


A lot of mucky mucks within the party who are directly interested in party resources moving South are quietly making the argument. And one can view the Obama/Trump vs Rising American Electorate arguments (ESPECIALLY the people who draw a strong dichotomy between those two choices as the only options) as a proxy argument for abandoning the industrial midwest to go to the sunbelt and vice versa.
They already have abandoned the midwest by giving priority to anti-gun/anti-cop measures as well as other miscellaneous SJW objectives that do nothing but make Sunbelt billionaires feel better about supporting the Democratic party. All this being done while leaving behind card-check and the public option. The Dems cannot operate as GOP-lite with the added bonus of Planned Parenthood.

Just look at how Dems spit on the face of workers by not supporting coal as well as opposing steel tariffs.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: VirginiŠ on March 29, 2018, 11:54:19 am
I don't think it would be wise to 'abandon' the rust belt, but it seems pretty clear that the sun belt is presenting more future opportunities, whether people like it or not. These trends have been ongoing for decades. I don't think it's something the party can change - at least not for many years.

I also don't think making inroads with white college grads / upscale whites is as poisonous for progressive policies as some think, but that's another argument (and one I've made elsewhere on Atlas before). The gist is that many left-leaning Millennials will come to make up white college grads in the Democratic Party, and others will nevertheless take their cues from party leaders - namely future Democratic presidents.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Shameless Bernie Hack on March 29, 2018, 11:54:58 am
Well, fwiw, the only Democrats I ever remember seriously arguing that nonsense were Non-Swing Voter (who turned to Libertarianism lol) and a dingus who wrote a Politico article in December 2016 imploring Democrats to abandon he Midwest in favor of greener pastures in Texas, Arizona and Georgia. Of course, Dems should target the latter two states, but anyone who argues the Midwest is a lost cause for either party is a buffoon. Now, Iíve heard plenty of people describe Ohio and Iowa as Leans or likely R states and advocating for ignoring them Presidentially, but thatís much different than ďabandoning the Rust BeltĒ


A lot of mucky mucks within the party who are directly interested in party resources moving South are quietly making the argument. And one can view the Obama/Trump vs Rising American Electorate arguments (ESPECIALLY the people who draw a strong dichotomy between those two choices as the only options) as a proxy argument for abandoning the industrial midwest to go to the sunbelt and vice versa.
They already have abandoned the midwest by giving priority to anti-gun/anti-cop measures as well as other miscellaneous SJW objectives that do nothing but make Sunbelt billionaires feel better about supporting the Democratic party. All this being done while leaving behind card-check and the public option. The Dems cannot operate as GOP-lite with the added bonus of Planned Parenthood.

Just look at how Dems spit on the face of workers by not supporting coal as well as opposing steel tariffs.

Please tell me about these TX, AZ, and GA billionaires who hate cops. Really looking forward to learning about them.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Shameless Bernie Hack on March 29, 2018, 11:57:45 am
I don't think it would be wise to 'abandon' the rust belt, but it seems pretty clear that the sun belt is presenting more future opportunities, whether people like it or not. These trends have been ongoing for decades. I don't think it's something the party can change - at least not for many years.

I also don't think making inroads with white college grads / upscale whites is as poisonous for progressive policies as some think, but that's another argument (and one I've made elsewhere on Atlas before). The gist is that many left-leaning Millennials will come to make up white college grads in the Democratic Party, and others will nevertheless take their cues from party leaders - namely future Democratic presidents.

I think the mistake is in thinking about it as a zero sum game. To be fair a lot of the people who I've heard make Sunbelt Exclusive arguments come from states that currently receive 0 national attention, and so could be forgiven for being aggressive in their quest for national resources. But I think a party that allows regional variation and evenly distributes resources is the one that comes out best.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: VirginiŠ on March 29, 2018, 12:08:26 pm
I think the mistake is in thinking about it as a zero sum game. To be fair a lot of the people who I've heard make Sunbelt Exclusive arguments come from states that currently receive 0 national attention, and so could be forgiven for being aggressive in their quest for national resources. But I think a party that allows regional variation and evenly distributes resources is the one that comes out best.

I do like the idea of investing everywhere, but the party should still identify districts/states with the most promise and try to develop them with more resources than say, Wyoming or what have you. I don't think the party does a good enough job with this. They spend way too much money on advertisements/consultants and not enough on building a permanent + sustainable ground game that can also support organic GOTV in states that may not warrant as much financial help from national orgs as other, more competitive states/districts.

I'm not a believer in that the Democratic Party's status as perpetual minority party for the past couple decades was completely avoidable - I think the Republicans were eventually going to come out on top after the 80s, but Democrats have made things worse by not maximizing their potential. In fact, maybe maximizing isn't even the best word. Sometimes Democrats seem to shoot themselves in the foot out of stupidity or greed. Look no further than the issues with the DNC, and how that was all easily avoidable.

It's so frustrating.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Speaker YE on March 29, 2018, 12:35:28 pm
I think the mistake is in thinking about it as a zero sum game. To be fair a lot of the people who I've heard make Sunbelt Exclusive arguments come from states that currently receive 0 national attention, and so could be forgiven for being aggressive in their quest for national resources. But I think a party that allows regional variation and evenly distributes resources is the one that comes out best.

I do like the idea of investing everywhere, but the party should still identify districts/states with the most promise and try to develop them with more resources than say, Wyoming or what have you. I don't think the party does a good enough job with this. They spend way too much money on advertisements/consultants and not enough on building a permanent + sustainable ground game that can also support organic GOTV in states that may not warrant as much financial help from national orgs as other, more competitive states/districts.

I'm not a believer in that the Democratic Party's status as perpetual minority party for the past couple decades was completely avoidable - I think the Republicans were eventually going to come out on top after the 80s, but Democrats have made things worse by not maximizing their potential. In fact, maybe maximizing isn't even the best word. Sometimes Democrats seem to shoot themselves in the foot out of stupidity or greed. Look no further than the issues with the DNC, and how that was all easily avoidable.

It's so frustrating.

The reason many despise the suburban strategy is many of the elites in the DCCC/DNC - who have wrecked the party slowly since 1979 - want to go down the suburban route. I realize the data suggests the suburban route is what demographics suggest, but I personally fear that party lines being divided solely on social issues, which is what the elitist likely want, will continue the the polarization seen today, and due to the composition of the Senate, make it very hard for the Democrats to develop a coalition that gives them anything more than narrow majorities. I think we're in agreement that at the congressional level, it's best to go for a 50 state strategy, appeal to each district on a case by case basis, making better arguments towards their policies, and with less emphasis on amount of money they're able to raise, when it comes to candidate recruiting. A Berniecrat takeover to a large extent would do just that. Yet according to some, that means that somehow that'll result in ditching social progress (which IMO may result in more social progress since polarization is lower and thus easier to get stuff over the 60 vote threshold in the Senate) and/or that somehow they're ideas would be so unpopular that they'd be reversed by a GOP government.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on March 29, 2018, 12:49:28 pm
I can actually see some surprise upsets in the congressional races in this state.

PA is going to break HARD for the Democrats.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: It's Trotsky Time on March 29, 2018, 01:12:07 pm
I can actually see some surprise upsets in the congressional races in this state.

WE AT CNN CAN PROJECT THAT IN A STUNNING UPSET, MIKE KELLY HAS BEEN DEFEATED FOR RE-ELECTION. THIS SEAT IS A DEMOCRATIC PICKUP.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on March 29, 2018, 02:11:40 pm
I can actually see some surprise upsets in the congressional races in this state.

WE AT CNN CAN PROJECT THAT IN A STUNNING UPSET, MIKE KELLY HAS BEEN DEFEATED FOR RE-ELECTION. THIS SEAT IS A DEMOCRATIC PICKUP.

PA16 is definitely a possibility.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on March 29, 2018, 05:37:30 pm
Party like it is 2006!!!


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: KingSweden on March 29, 2018, 05:50:57 pm
I can actually see some surprise upsets in the congressional races in this state.

PA is going to break HARD for the Democrats.

Downballot leg races is where a bigger break would really rack up, no?


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on March 29, 2018, 06:01:35 pm
I can actually see some surprise upsets in the congressional races in this state.

PA is going to break HARD for the Democrats.

Downballot leg races is where a bigger break would really rack up, no?

I can't wait to see the House GOP get slaughtered.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Sestak on March 29, 2018, 06:18:53 pm
I think the mistake is in thinking about it as a zero sum game. To be fair a lot of the people who I've heard make Sunbelt Exclusive arguments come from states that currently receive 0 national attention, and so could be forgiven for being aggressive in their quest for national resources. But I think a party that allows regional variation and evenly distributes resources is the one that comes out best.

I do like the idea of investing everywhere, but the party should still identify districts/states with the most promise and try to develop them with more resources than say, Wyoming or what have you. I don't think the party does a good enough job with this. They spend way too much money on advertisements/consultants and not enough on building a permanent + sustainable ground game that can also support organic GOTV in states that may not warrant as much financial help from national orgs as other, more competitive states/districts.

I'm not a believer in that the Democratic Party's status as perpetual minority party for the past couple decades was completely avoidable - I think the Republicans were eventually going to come out on top after the 80s, but Democrats have made things worse by not maximizing their potential. In fact, maybe maximizing isn't even the best word. Sometimes Democrats seem to shoot themselves in the foot out of stupidity or greed. Look no further than the issues with the DNC, and how that was all easily avoidable.

It's so frustrating.

The reason many despise the suburban strategy is many of the elites in the DCCC/DNC - who have wrecked the party slowly since 1979 - want to go down the suburban route. I realize the data suggests the suburban route is what demographics suggest, but I personally fear that party lines being divided solely on social issues, which is what the elitist likely want, will continue the the polarization seen today, and due to the composition of the Senate, make it very hard for the Democrats to develop a coalition that gives them anything more than narrow majorities. I think we're in agreement that at the congressional level, it's best to go for a 50 state strategy, appeal to each district on a case by case basis, making better arguments towards their policies, and with less emphasis on amount of money they're able to raise, when it comes to candidate recruiting. A Berniecrat takeover to a large extent would do just that. Yet according to some, that means that somehow that'll result in ditching social progress (which IMO may result in more social progress since polarization is lower and thus easier to get stuff over the 60 vote threshold in the Senate) and/or that somehow they're ideas would be so unpopular that they'd be reversed by a GOP government.

I mean, have people already forgotten that the 50 state strategy actually WORKED?


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: MT Treasurer on March 29, 2018, 08:19:06 pm
I think even Stabenow and Baldwin are more likely to lose than Casey at this point, not that thatís saying much. Safest Trump state Dem.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on March 29, 2018, 11:02:26 pm
Honestly, even if you believe that some of the gains that Trump made among rural WWC voters in 2016 are permanent, the growth (and D trend) of the Philly surburbs probably mean that PA will remain a swing state for a long time to come.

Anyway, Casey should be fine. But while Democrats are headed for a good year here this year (and probably in Wisconsin and Michigan as well, to an extent), they shouldn't assume that they have PA in the bag in 2020.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on March 29, 2018, 11:39:04 pm
Honestly, even if you believe that some of the gains that Trump made among rural WWC voters in 2016 are permanent, the growth (and D trend) of the Philly surburbs probably mean that PA will remain a swing state for a long time to come.

Anyway, Casey should be fine. But while Democrats are headed for a good year here this year (and probably in Wisconsin and Michigan as well, to an extent), they shouldn't assume that they have PA in the bag in 2020.

I honestly don't think it will ever become a Lean R state.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Shameless Bernie Hack on March 30, 2018, 06:06:37 am
I think the mistake is in thinking about it as a zero sum game. To be fair a lot of the people who I've heard make Sunbelt Exclusive arguments come from states that currently receive 0 national attention, and so could be forgiven for being aggressive in their quest for national resources. But I think a party that allows regional variation and evenly distributes resources is the one that comes out best.

I do like the idea of investing everywhere, but the party should still identify districts/states with the most promise and try to develop them with more resources than say, Wyoming or what have you. I don't think the party does a good enough job with this. They spend way too much money on advertisements/consultants and not enough on building a permanent + sustainable ground game that can also support organic GOTV in states that may not warrant as much financial help from national orgs as other, more competitive states/districts.

I'm not a believer in that the Democratic Party's status as perpetual minority party for the past couple decades was completely avoidable - I think the Republicans were eventually going to come out on top after the 80s, but Democrats have made things worse by not maximizing their potential. In fact, maybe maximizing isn't even the best word. Sometimes Democrats seem to shoot themselves in the foot out of stupidity or greed. Look no further than the issues with the DNC, and how that was all easily avoidable.

It's so frustrating.

Oh sure, the 'mistake' is being made by people sounding a full retreat (for reasons of their own), not you. Sorry for the ambiguity. Targets are fine on Presidential campaigns, but I don't think that the national party, particularly at the DNC, should be focused on investing large amounts of money on particular regional bets. Give nearly every region a relatively flat amount of resources so everyone can capitalize on opportunities they see in their region.

Heck, there's even a case for throwing a small amount of money at Wyoming every cycle. The fossil fuel industry is collapsing, the GOP doesn't really know how to handle that, and Cheyenne + Casper are growing. Why not give the state party enough money to get its voter file in order, hire a couple full time organizers, and see what they can make of it?

Maybe that wouldn't have saved the party in the Reagan Era, but it certainly would have softened the blow. At minimum, I think it would make it easier to bounce back from systemic setbacks. You'd have fewer situations like Alabama, for instance, where there's barely a statewide party apparatus (and what there is is deep in debt) statewide candidates can't raise money, &c &c. So the Joneses of the world have an easier time of it, and shifts in broader socioeconomic trends (ex Georgia) can be capitalized on by local forces much quicker.

As for parasitic consultants: yep. Though that said, various subsections within the DNC are also lending their imprimatur to some interesting projects I've heard rumors about.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: IceSpear on April 01, 2018, 04:06:14 pm
It would be absolutely hilarious if Casey won by a bigger margin than he did in 2012, considering his opponent then was a Some Dude Generic Rich Businessman and this time they have an "All Star Recruit" coming off just winning the state in a presidential election for the first time in 3 decades.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Cory Booker on April 01, 2018, 04:22:52 pm
In Pennsylvania, the Trump phenomenon has died down and Democrats will proceed to win.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on April 01, 2018, 06:41:31 pm
In Pennsylvania, the Trump phenomenon has died down and Democrats will proceed to win.

A pickup in PA10 wouldn't be surprising.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists on April 01, 2018, 10:06:04 pm
This cannot be true, as PA is Likely R on my map.


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on April 01, 2018, 10:07:41 pm
This cannot be true, as PA is Likely R on my map.
I am prepared to cause stable time loops in order to throw the election to Barletta. :P


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: cvparty on April 01, 2018, 10:32:10 pm
can we stop mocking king lear please it's too funny


Title: Re: PA-Sen: Casey +18
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on April 01, 2018, 10:52:02 pm
It would be absolutely hilarious if Casey won by a bigger margin than he did in 2012, considering his opponent then was a Some Dude Generic Rich Businessman and this time they have an "All Star Recruit" coming off just winning the state in a presidential election for the first time in 3 decades.

Casey will probably win by double digits. Barletta is a much weaker candidate than Tom Smith, plus he does not reflect the mood of 2018, especially in Pennsylvania.