Talk Elections

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Arkansas_May.htm

Arkansas ain't winnable baby...

But we'll win AR before we win FL.

If it's 45-45 it's not unwinnable. However, it would be interesting to hear Vorlon's view on this one.

Anyone have any input on why Rasmussen nationally keeps showing the race a tie.. kerry will go up by 3 or 4, then bush come even, then the same thing will happen the other way.. but Kerry seems to be polling really well in all the state polls. Arkansas- a tie, Wisconsin- up 8, Ohio up 4, Iowa up 10, and so on... From the polling rasmussen is putting out it seems he is saying this will be a national dead heat but the electoral college will go to Kerry by a lot. Any input on why the disconnect between the state and national polls of rasmussen?

Arkansas is the only southern state Kerry has a chance in (I don't count Florida as south). Most people forget that pretty much the entire state except the northwest and outer Little Rock suburbs is still reliably Democratic, even in presidential elections.

How about Louisiana?  I know it's a stretch, but I view Virginia as trending democratic... probably still safely Republican in 2004, but maybe not much longer.

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.

I agree. Arkansas and Virginia remain strong GOP.

Seems to me that Rasmussen's polling is all over the place. Thats what you get from small, one day samples. I think he likes it that way because it gets his polling noticed. Particularly this early in the race when there is no way to confirm if he is right or wrong. If I recall correctly the same thing occurred in 2000.

First, the usual standard methodological rants on a Rasmussen State poll...

<< insert standard rant....>>

One Day Robot State poll...+/- 4.5% 19/20 - could be a blip...
One day polls - bad - robots - no call backs.....Sunday - Bad day to poll.

<< rant over >>

Rasmussen is fairly tight lipped about the internal guts of how he does his one day state snapshots.  My educated guess is that they are far less tightly "constrained" than his daily tracking poll.

He almost certainly is (or at least should) be building in some fairly aggressive weights to take into account the probabilities of reaching various demographic groups in a one day poll. (especially on a sunday)

These standard caveats being said however, there is enough data out there for some broader conclusions.

Arkansas has a lot of "PMCs" (precarious middle class)  people who are doing "ok" economically, not poor, but lack deep financial reserves to let them feel comfortable about their lives and their futures.  Their employers are often smaller, they may or may not have reliable, portable health care.  Their jobs may or may not be secure.  In short, they are vulnerable.  They are not the captain of their own ship, their are along for the ride on somebody elses ship..

It is these people, many who vote GOP on social issues like abortion, general religious feelings, patriotism, etc, which are eroding on Bush, and Arkansas has a ton of them.

As I believe I have posted before (??) , Bush is really starting to especially feel a hit among married women in his popularity.  This is a group he just has to hold Kerry to at least a tie on or he is in real difficulty.

I have swung Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin back over to Kerry based on this errosion among women.  

The Bush folks have picked up on this breakdown among married women and I expect you will see Bush launch a "jobs/kids/soft & fuzzy" offensive quite soon.

I think this torture thing in Iraq will have a far larger political effect than the commentators seem to think.

The torture thing is hard to impossible to poll in the sense that you can't really draw a straight logical line between geneva convention violations in Iraq and how this makes you vote,

This cannot however make anybody feel better about what is going on in Iraq, and to the degree that "angst" builds about Iraq it hurts Bush. (Think PMKs - they Support Bush and the war because it is the "right" thing to do... after the torture photos is it still the right thing to do?)

I think a lot of this is showing up in Married women who usually are the "softest" GOP supporters when they do vote GOP.

A good indicator to watch is if the Kerry folks throw some extra ads into Arkansas this flight of ads.  

Little Rock is pretty cheap to buy and if they sense an opening I expect that Arkansas will get a real good dose of the new Kerry ads (which are pretty decent BTW IMHO, not gamebreakers by any means, but pretty decent)

Don't quite have enough data to have anything super hard in terms of Arkansas conclusions, but botton line to me is that this poll is not crazy or a fluke.

An interesting and observant question....

Rasmusssen is doing a hard weight in his daily tracking poll to a predetermined distribution of DEms/GOP/Ind which will tends to give you both a very stable result, and one which will not drift too far from dead even...

re one day polls...

One day polls have some inherest challenges built into them.  One of  the obvious of these is that you can't talk to people who are not home.

Normally when you do a poll, you select your sample of XXX phone numbers, and then if you do not reach a certain phone number, you try back tomorrow, or the day after till you have reached as much as you can of the original sample, and then only after you have failed to reach a phone number many times, do you substitute in a replicate number. (You usually try a number about 10 to 12 times before you give up and replace the number)

This compensates for the fact that different demographic groups have diferent social, travel and holiday patterns.

The elderly, for example, go out partying far less on Friday night than to 21 year olds, Republicans tend to leave the area more on weekend vacations, etc...

To use a simple example, imagine you did a poll in Green Bay Wisconsin on the day of a Packers game about building the Packers a new stadium.

 A very meaningful chunk of Green Bay Foorball Fans (whom we presume may disproportionately favor a new statium) are at the football game, and hence a Sunday afternoon poll would not reach them - hence your sample would not be a valid snapshot of the town...

If you called back all the numbers where you got no answer on Sunday afternoon by doing "call backs" on Monday, Tuesday, etc till you reached all your original sample, you could get around this problem.  Obviously a one day snapshot poll makes this impossible.

(This is the same reason why the "snapshot" polls some networks try on the night of the Presidential debates are deeply problematic as well...)

I am assuming Rasmussen is building in some systemic counter weights to this "one day" problem by weighting his sample upwards in terms of the number of boomers, Rebpublicans, etc...

How and to what degree he is doing this I do not know.  Perhaps his new "premium" service will shed some light on this..?

Are you going to sign up for that?

I am undecided on that actually... :)

Rasmussen is a "decent" pollster (B+ or so) - certainly not an idiot by any means.  I am just not sure there is enough "meat" in his data to tell me anything I don't already know.

Have you ever e-mailed them?

What evidence do you have that Bush doing bad among "married women"? As I said before I don't much faith in polls this early on. Give it until about August before I believe any poll.

Oh ya.. Scott and I have emailed back and forth maybe 10 times or so.  He "kinda" answers my questions :D

Pollsters hold on to their "secrets" like Col. Sanders does his 13 secret herbs & spices...

He is THE VORLON.  He knows.  Trust me.

They can't remain strong GOP, since they weren't in 2000... :P

I think both will go Bush, but they're not strong...

Interesting analyses by Vorlon, as always. I hope your right...Kerry couls use another battleground state...

Though he is very insightful and has a lot of information. I still do not put my faith is polls in May. Give it to August, we will start to get a real picture by then.

You'll notice the new Kerry ads have quotes from his daughter and wife.  Hmmmm...

That is NOT a co-incidence...  

The "horserace" question, (who is ahead, behind, etc ) I agree is pretty worthless right now...

A "likely" voter in May.... if I actually knew what that meant in any meaningful way, I might then know what being ahead or behind among likely voters actually meant then too... :)

I disagree however about the fundementals behind the data.  Base voter attitudes, issues, etc are very pollable right now.  

Indeed, I might argue since a lot of the "undecided" have not really tuned in yet, their answers to many many questiosn are more rather than less honest this far out than they might be after they lock in on a candidate.

just my 2 cents worth... :)

Point to Gustaf.

   Kerry looks like he is starting a two front attack against Bush, a soft and personable campaign to chip away at thje married female vote, and a hard edged one that attacks jobs being sent to China to gain as the Vorlon says, PMC male voters.

   In my strong opinion, the bending over backwards for busienss intrests that Bush has done, leading to a large budget hole due to tax cuts that people for the most part were not asking for, alloing jobs being sent over to China and having admin officals defend this practice(stupid move politically in todays enviroment) and his amnesty plan for i llegal immigrants has cost, IMO, Bush in the polls 5-10% nationally. The fact Bush has lost support in the midwest is because of these stands he has taken.

I just e-mailed him...I asked him your question about the packers game.

cool...!

Let me know what he sends back.  What exactly did you ask him if I may ask..? (Scott usually answers his email on Saturday mornings BTW)

If Kerry has any sense he will try to keep his wife out of this campaign as much as possible.

Transcript of mt e-mail: (keep in mind I already know the answer to the first question and I just asked it to lead off)

"Hi.  I love your site.  A few questions:
 
1. What Party ID weights do you use?  (ie D, R, I)
 
2. How do you weight state polls, which can sometimes be inaccurate?  For example, teens are out more on friday than seniors, etc.?
 
Thanks,
Dave"

:)

Let me know if you get a "straight" answer... I have mainly gotten general answers that I had to "read between the lines" on....

chop chop! :D

I will the post his response right here at this board.  :)

I hope he gives you an EXACT answer on the Party ID, he gave me about 2 parargraphs worth that I "think" said a +3 dem weight... I am eager to see if I under stood him corectly... :D

The newbie twists in the wind as Gustaf cuts him down to size and Vorlon tallies the score. >:(

For the record, Virginia was +8% and Arkansas was +5% in 2000, and there is no reason to believe they will be any stronger or weaker relative to the national average result in 2004.

Strong is such a relative term . . .
What ever the term, these states will trend GOP just as much in 2004 as in 2000.

Perhaps the word strong was too strong? :)

Watch out for Gustaf.. he's a killer.. :D

Vorlon please answer my question as to where you get the information that "married women" are leaving support for Bush behind?

A couple indicators

The "gender gap" has risen substantially poll to poll (ie a Gallup from 6 weeks ago versus a Gallup from 2 weeks ago)  In ths case of Gallup the rise was 4%, in Tipp it was 3%, in Zogby it was also 4%.

Single women already break hugely from the Dems, so the change has to be in married women.

In the March Quinipiac from Penn Bush lost women 42/41, in the April Quinipiac (even though Bush lead went from +4 to +6 overall) he lost women 48/39 ) a negative change among women of 8%)

If you want to be picky, you could limit my comment to "all women" as opposed to "married" women, but in reality single women are reliably democratic, it's the married ones that are swing voters.

There are tons of examples.  I know it's true cause I look for gender gap changes in every poll I look at - it's just about the best indicator of a direction change there is in an election - women are fickle after all :)

Not too long ago, there was an AR poll that said that the state had 5% more Dems than Repubs.  We're not strong GOP, we're trend Dem.

Kerry can win Arkansas. The example of it not going dem from '76-'92 is a poor one, since '80 and '88 were blowout years and '84 a 49 state landslide. and judging by what other states he carried, Clinton would've likely carried Arkansas even if he had come from another southern state. It's a swing state and a fairly good bellweather.

All Kerry needs to do is not make the mistake Gore did and get Clinton to campaign for him.

Now as for Virginia, Bush will win it, but it'll be a lot closer than people think. Bush had a very poor showing there in 2000 compared to the past, it was his third worst southern state after Arkansas and Tennesee (which greatly benefited from the favorite son factor). I don't see how anyone can't see the state changing, the northern part has much more in common with New Jersey than Alabama and the Virginia Beach/Newport News area is also developing and starting to turn into an area similar to Atlanta or New Orleans, not really southern and quite liberal despite the area. I know many people from Virginia, and none of them think of themselves as being southern, not even the ones from Richmond, the capital of the Confederacy! Virginia is becoming similar to Florida. I wouldn't be shocked if a poll came out showing it close and if Kerry decided to sink some cash into the state, and I am certain it will be contended in 2008.

Well, whether you like the fact or not both Virginia and Florida ARE Southern states. I know you'd like to see the total dismantling of the south but the fact remains that VA and Florida are traditional Southern states.

I've been to Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale as well as Alexandria and Arlington, and that is NOT the south.

Orland and FT L is not ALL of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington are NOT ALL of VA. Good grief Orlando and Ft L may be 2% of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington may be 2% of VA.

There is a huge difference between all of the Southern cities:
Houston
Tampa
Atlanta
Richmond
New Orleans
Little Rock
etc.

only about 20% of Florida's population lives on the northern strip of counties. The rest is not the south. And while only about 30% of Virginia's population lives in the northern region, it's growth and other developments means the state will be a swing state some day.

I'm sorry but seeing 2 cities in Florida and calling it "non-Souther" is ridiculous. It would be like seeing LA and San Fransisco and calling California a very liberal state. Tampa, Jacksonville, Pensacola, and most all of the rural counties of Florida are very very Southern.

So only the PanHandle is Southern? Ok call Dixie, Polk, Ockechobee, Collier, Hillsborough, etc etc non southern? Those counties are all along the I-4 corrider or next to the lake.  You've never been to Florida, Orlando and Ft Lauderdale don't count. lol
I bet you could go to South side VA or Tidewater or the Mountains and call them "non-Southern"? lol

I'm doubtful. Only Arlington, Alexandria (who are already Democratic and have stagnating populations), and Fairfax county (slowly trending Democratic county of 1 million people), and Prince William county (300,000), both of which are fast-growing, can definitely be considered "Northern Virginia" but I think this (total around 1.6 million) accounts for 22% of the state population. Beyond that, what the hell Northern Virginia is, is confusing:

http://www.baconsrebellion.com/Issues03/08-11/Northern_virginia.htm

Based off population density, I wouldn't say it goes much beyond Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince George's.

Northern VA is the Republican side of DC and Maryland is the Democrat side of DC. Look at the counties in both states surrounding DC and you will see what I mean.

I never said the whole states weren't southern, just that certain parts are. After all one Maryland and Delaware have southern parts to them, but that certainly doesn't make Baltimore or Wilmington southern cities, or the states on a whole. Virginia I would still classify as a southern state, even though a significant amount of the population lives in an area which is not. Florida I would not, I looked up all the counties you listed and they are rather rural and sparsely populated. The same way the counties of California that actually have people in them are rather liberal, Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and the Orlando area have the bulk of Florida's population outside of the panhandle, and they are not southern.

[qoute]
 Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and the Orlando area have the bulk of Florida's population outside of the panhandle, and they are not southern.

Those are only 4!! counties outside the Panhandle. What about Hillsborough, Polk, Pinellas, Hernando? All of Central Florida is not sparsely populated! I would hardly call any of those counties I just mentioned sparse. Lakeland is one of the biggest cities in the region and Polk is THE largest county in Florida. Tampa is very Republican as is St. Petersburg and Sarasota. Miami is just one city and Orlando is a world of its own, but Orlando and Miami do not a Florida make.

Polk only has about 500k people. There's over a million in Palm Beach and I'm sure there are plenty more larger counties. If Tampa and St. Petersburg are heavily Republican, why does Tampa keep electing Jim Davis and why did Gore win Pinellas county?

Tampas Mayor Pam Iorio is a Republican, Pinellas' mayor Rick Baker is a Republican and the only reason that Pinellas went Demo is because of the black population. I do not determine D/R when I talk about being southern. Southerners can be either Democrat/Republican or Black/White. Here is a map of counties

Why Florida IS Southern (http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/florida_map.html)

Hey! I'm a nice guy... :(

I think that any state that is 8% or lower is not strong...a swing of 4% would win it for Kerry, that's not much. A margin of say 52-48 would be enough to put Arkansas in play, for instance. And there are signs of VA trending Dem.

Personally I think that a state must have a MoV of at least 10% to be considered strong. But we all have different defintions...I don't know if I remembered to welcome you to the forum, if not I will now. :) Welcome to the forum. :)

On the Florida-war I'd agree that Florida as a whole is not a Southern state, poltiically, since Bush swept the South while winning Florida by a few hundred votes.

Virginia is Southern, but not AS southern as say Alabama.

Dems had a bigger reg advantage in 2000 & have reg advantages in all southern states.

Thanks for the welcome, Gustaf.

Other than Texas of course.

If you are interested in another view of what the SOUTH is take a look at this article.

Ten Regions of the US (http://www.massinc.org/commonwealth/new_map_exclusive/ten_regions_index.html)

Thanks Pieman. As the map clearly shows the majority of Florida is Southern.

Part of it is El Norto though. And geographical share isn't always the same as popular share.

Miami-Dade does not a Florida make. I'm sure that if you went to 80% of Floridians and called them Yankees you probably wouldn't leave our fine state in the same shape you came in. Southern tradition and culture runs deep in our fair state whether Northerners like that fact or not. Just because a person is a Democrat does not mean they are not southerners. If you want to make it out that southerners are all racists and thus all republicans why don't yall just come out and say it already?

Don't you love when people hijack your thread? ;D

Wjo knows...Dems might even had the adv. there.